Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has woke up in Detroit in the last two days. They put up more than 20 hits yesterday and routed Detroit. Pittsburgh gets to go against Kyle Ryan in this one. Ryan is a young lefty who has had trouble commanding his pitches. His advanced metrics suggest his ERA should be around 5.50 right now. Francisco Liriano is a good lefty, but he does occasionally get hit hard by good lineups. Detroit ranks second in the majors in runs scored per game against left handed pitching. They are much deeper now that Victor Martinez is back in the lineup. Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and he has the smallest strike zone of any umpire in the league, so that's a definite help.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 5-0-1 in the Tigers last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The over is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 Thursday games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 6-0 in Detroit's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 after giving up 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Holbrook's last 4 interleague games behind the plate. A 53-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The San Francisco Giants dropped the first game of their series against Miami on Tuesday night. Ryan Vogelsong was the loser in that one. Vogelsong isn't a very good pitcher, but the Giants throw talented youngster Chris Heston in this one. Heston has much better stuff, and he'll be facing a Marlins lineup that is really bad without Stanton in the middle of the order. Dan Haren has done it with smoke and mirrors this year. He's leaving a ton of people on base and that usually leads to trouble in the long run. The Giants offense is far better than the Marlins. Lay the short price on the road team. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The New York Mets lineup is a mess right now. Without David Wright the lineup was very weak to start with, and now they are likely to be without Michael Cuddyer on Wednesday. The Cubs lineup hasn't been great against righties this year, but Bartolo Colon has been really bad in the past month. Jon Lester's advanced metrics suggest he's due for some positive regression, and there is a good chance he'll be able to put together a good outing against this Mets lineup. Very reasonable price on the Cubs here. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The Oakland Athletics have no business laying -175 or -180 here. I actually think Oakland is a better team than their record would indicate, but the oddsmakers are just too high on them here. Chad Bettis has shown he has quality stuff this year. Bettis has a nice strikeout percentage and he should give the Rockies a chance here. Jesse Hahn is a pretty good pitcher, but this Rockies lineup torches right handed pitching. I think the line here should be +125 or +130, so I see major line value. This isn't a particularly pretty bet to make, but in the long when betting on baseball when a line shows this much value you have to take it. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Chris Sale is an elite pitcher. It's unfortunate for him that he plays on such a bad team, because it can be really tough for him to pick up wins. Sale has been throwing the ball tremendous in the past couple months. Lance Lynn was brilliant in his last start after coming back from the disabled list. Chicago's lineup has been disappointing all year. Playing in a NL park, the White Sox lose a hitter in this one and Sale will have to bat. The Cardinals offense has been amazing against right handed pitching this year, but they struggle against lefties, and Sale is one of the best. This total is low, but it's low for a good reason. Expect a pitcher's duel.

The under is 5-0-1 in the White Sox last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a righty. The under is 4-0 in Sale's last 4 during game one of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinals last 4 following a day off. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a lefty. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The under is 4-0 in Lynn's last 4 as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 on 4 days of rest. A 45-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Cubs were swept by the St. Louis Cardinals this past weekend. I was on the Cardinals in two of those games, but I'm going to back the Cubs in this series opener in New York. The Mets swept the Cincinnati Reds this past weekend, but the Cubs are a better team than Cincinnati. The matchups favor the Cubs here. The Cubs hit lefties far better than they do right handed pitchers. Jon Niese has struggled with his command this year. The young Cubs lineup should give him trouble. Kyle Hendricks is a pretty good young right handed starter and the Mets offense has been terrible of late. The recent poor results of Chicago and good results from New York give us a very cheap line on the Cubs in this one.

The Cubs are 4-0 in Hendricks' last 4 as a -110 to -150 favorite. The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. the Mets. The Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 following an off day. They are 0-4 in Niese's last 4 vs. the NL Central. They are 0-8 in Niese's last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The Mets are 0-4 in Niese's last 4 starts as a home underdog. A 30-0 angle. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* While his name recognition wouldn't match Justin Verlander's to the average MLB fan, Gerrit Cole is a better pitcher than Verlander at this point in his career. Cole is quickly becoming a star pitcher. The movement he has on his pitches is just tremendous. His fastball's movement takes a back seat to no one. Pittsburgh plays good defense and they have a very good bullpen. Detroit's bullpen has been an issue in the past, and they haven't been good lately. Rain will be in the area for this one, which makes bullpens all that much more important. At this price, I like the road team. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEY* Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris are both guys I've faded successfully over the years. Rodriguez overachieved for a while this year with the Rangers, but he's come back down to earth quickly in his last two starts. Rodriguez is an aging pitcher who doesn't have good enough stuff to get through strong lineups anymore. Baltimore's lineup comes into this series scorching hot. Bud Norris is really inconsistent. While he is capable of throwing it well, he's also capable of getting knocked out of the game within the first couple innings. Texas is good against right handed pitching. With two starters who can give up the big inning, I'm comfortable taking the over at 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in Norris' last 5 home starts. Take the over. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball MONEY* The St. Louis Cardinals are 43-10 in their last 53 home games. They have already won 50 games this year. I don't understand what they are going to have to do to get some respect from the oddsmakers. The Cubs are a pretty good team, but the Cardinals have been great against the Cubs in the past couple years. Carlos Martinez has some really good stuff, and I expect him to be a good starter for the Cardinals the next few years. Several Cardinals players have good numbers against Jason Hammel. Rain is possible in this game and in the case of rain delays, it is the Cardinals that have a clear bullpen advantage. The Cardinals have excelled against right handed pitching this year, while the Cubs aren't very good against righties. 

The Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cubs are 0-5 in Hammel's last 5 Sunday starts. St. Louis is 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They are 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. A 26-0 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Seattle Mariners send King Felix to the mound on Sunday afternoon against the Los Angeles Angels. While the Angels have some big names in their lineup, they actually rank in the bottom half of the league against right handed pitching. King Felix is one of the best in baseball, and his past history against the Angels is tremendous. Hector Santiago definitely has some regression coming. It's just a matter of time. Santiago is currently stranding almost 90% of runners on base. That's a number that isn't going to last. The Mariners have a clear pitching advantage and the Seattle bullpen has been throwing it well lately too.

Seattle is 9-0 in Hernandez's last 9 Sunday starts. They are 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. the Angels. They are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts vs. the Angels. Los Angeles is 0-5 in Santiago's last 5 starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. A 31-0 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Miami Marlins have one of the worst lineups in the majors without Giancarlo Stanton in the middle of the lineup. Prado is already out with an injury and he was one of the team's more consistent run producers too. Zack Greinke has been dealing so far this year, and it's unlikely that the Marlins will be able to do much damage at all against him. Jose Urena has been throwing it well in the month of June, and the Dodgers bats have been cold of late. This is a pitcher's park, and Don Mattingly has been known to sit out some of his better players on Sunday afternoon games.

The under is 7-0 in the Dodgers last 7 road games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 7-0 in the Marlins last 7 Sunday games. The under is 5-0-1 in Urena's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 as an underdog. A 34-0 angle. Take the under.   

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres have been an over bettors best friend so far this year. While most people point to only their much improved offense, it has also been their awful defense. The Padres outfield defense is the worst in baseball, and it isn't even close. Arizona has a star in Paul Goldschmitt and the lineup around him is good enough. Andrew Cashner's command has been really bad this year. Jeremy Hellickson isn't a very good pitcher. These two bullpens both rank in the bottom ten in the majors.

The over is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 after the Padres allowed 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in Hellickson's last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 3-0-1 in Hellickson's last 4 following a quality start last outing.  A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Houston Astros are definitely much improved, but I'm still not convinced they are as good as their record would indicate. Houston's offense is very aggressive, and they swing and miss a lot. I think that plays to the strength of a guy like Tanaka. Tanaka is great at missing bats, and the Astros should strike out a lot here. Oberholtzer is a mediocre pitcher, and this Yankees lineup is good. Tanaka was bombed in his last outing, but I expect a nice bounceback here. I'll take the road team at an acceptable price. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies offense is second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Tim Lincecum was rocked in his last outing. Lincecum pitches better at home than on the road, but he definitely doesn't have elite stuff anymore, and this Rockies lineup is a good one. Chris Rusin hasn't been able to prove that he has the kind of stuff that can keep him in the majors in the past. Rusin is a pitch to contact guy, and the Giants offense is pretty good as well. This park is clearly a pitcher's park, but a day game makes it less pitcher friendly. The umpire here is a big help. Sam Holbrook may be the single best over umpire in the majors.

The over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 following a win. The over is 6-0 in Lincecum's last 6. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts after the Giants allowed 5 runs or more. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's rank in the top five in the majors in hitting against right handed pitching. The Kansas City Royals are in the top ten. Edinson Volquez is nothing better than a mediocre pitcher in my opinion. Hahn is decent, but the A's bullpen and the A's defense are both terrible. This is definitely a pitcher's park, but with all the other things in play, a total of only 7 is too low. Both of these pitchers are inconsistent, and both teams have patient offenses that can wait for a bad inning from the opposing pitcher. The over is 4-0-1 in Volquez's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-0-2 in his last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in the Royals last 5 with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The over is 5-0 in the A's last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals are a stunning 41-10 in their last 51 home games. The Cardinals are 12-1 in John Lackey's last 13 home games. The line here is baffling. I know the Chicago Cubs are much improved and I know that Jake Arrieta is a very good pitcher. I also know that Matt Holliday is out of the lineup. Even given all of these things, it makes zero sense for the Cardinals to be barely favored here. The Cardinals lineup is still tremendous. In fact, even without Holliday it's one of the best lineups in the league. Kris Bryant is questionable in this one for the Cubs. John Lackey has been amazing at home and his consistency has been remarkable. 

The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 Friday games. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. They are 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 12-0 in his last 12 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL Central. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. A 43-0 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Minnesota Twins aren't a team I'm high on overall, but Trevor May is throwing the ball well, and Kyle Lohse has been awful this year. Lohse is 36 years old and and his stuff is declining. May is a youngster who was a highly touted prospect who took some time to come into his own. Minnesota's offense is a little better than the Brewers, and Milwaukee hasn't been good anywhere this season. The Brewers are 1-6 in Lohse's last 7 starts. They are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is also 5-2 in their last 7 games at Milwaukee. Good price on the road team with the better pitcher. Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jacob Degrom has been terrific for the New York Mets this year. Taylor Jungmann has a really high upside as a young pitcher for the Brewers as well. The Mets offense has been the worst in the majors over the last few weeks. Jungmann has all the stuff necessary to strike out a lot of batters, and I like this matchup for him. Degrom has been dealing regardless of who he is up against lately. Also important to note is Degrom's amazing history during the daytime. I'm generally not a huge day vs. night splits guy, but Degrom has a career 1.34 ERA in 11 starts during the daytime. Vic Carrapazza is a solid under umpire behind the plate also.

The under is 8-1 in the Mets last 9. The under is 4-0 in the Brewers last 4 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jon Lester gives the Cubs a big pitching edge in this game. The Dodgers have torched right handed pitching this year, but they rank #22 out of 30 teams in the majors against left handed pitching. Lester is one of the best lefties in the league. The Dodgers are 2-10 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Carlos Frias has been wearing down and struggling in a big way over the last few weeks. The Cubs offense should get some chances to get to him in this one. Cheap price on the home team. Take Chicago. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oakland Athletics underachieved earlier in the year, and they have had some bad luck as well. Oakland is better than their record would indicate, and they are starting to show it. The A's have a huge pitching advantage in this one with Sonny Gray on the mound. Colby Lewis will take the mound for the Rangers. Sonny Gray has some amazing lifetime numbers vs. the Rangers. Gray has a 1.68 ERA in nine starts vs. Texas. At Texas, which is a very tough park for pitchers, Gray has a sparkling 0.29 ERA in four starts. Colby Lewis has a career 5.01 ERA when pitching in Texas. The A's offense has been really good against right handed pitching this year. 

The A's are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. They are 5-0 in their last 5 as a road favorite. They are 4-0 in their last 4 during game three of a series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. Texas is 0-4 in their last 4 overall. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The A's are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 road starts against the Rangers. A 42-0 angle. Take Oakland. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* The Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet tonight at Coors Field. Coors Field might not be quite the launching pad that it once was, but it's still the best hitters park in baseball. With Allen Webster and David Hale starting in this one, I expect to see a bunch of runs. Webster has always had a lot of control problems, and putting people on base at Coors Field is a bad omen. The Rockies offense is tremendous against right handed pitching, and Webster will be one of the lowest ranked righties they have matched up against all year. David Hale isn't much better, and the Diamondbacks offense has been rolling lately. Both of these teams have bullpens that rank in the bottom ten in baseball, so once the starters leave there shouldn't be much relief. The forecast calls for wind blowing out about 10 mph through this game also, which will certainly help out. 

The over is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-1 in the Rockies last 8 games. The over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 home games. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays are averaging 5.57 runs per game so far this year. Toronto is better against left handed pitching, but they are still very good against righties. Tampa Bay doesn't have a particularly good offense, but Toronto's pitching staff is terrible. Marco Estrada is an average or below average starter. Karns has been pitching well lately, but his advanced metrics suggest he is an average starter right now. Even if we assume the Blue Jays come up short of their normal run production, we only need 3 or 4 runs from the Rays here. With Toronto involved, this total is set too low. The Rays have been a huge under team on the road, but overs have been solid for them at home this year. 

The over is 6-0-2 in the Rays last 8 games as a favorite. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in Estrada's last 4 starts overall. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks have been playing some good baseball of late. Paul Goldschmitt is one of the best players in the game right now, and I don't believe many people understand just how great he is. The lineup around him has been pretty good as well, and Kyle Kendrick has a way of making a lot of offenses look good. Kendrick isn't a good pitcher to start with, and his skillset is a terrible match for Coors Field. Kendrick is a fly ball pitcher and he gives up a bunch of long balls in Colorado. Chase Anderson is a guy I like a lot. Anderson is a ground ball pitcher who is really coming into his own thanks mainly to his tremendous changeup. 

Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite. Colorado is 0-4 in Kendrick's last 4 starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game one of a series. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL West. They are 0-4 in his last 4 home starts. They are 0-6 in his last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. A 23-0 angle. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The St. Louis Cardinals are a much better team than the Miami Marlins, and the splits in this one work out favorably for St. Louis too. The Cardinals are a way better offense against right handed pitching than they are against lefties. Miami is great against lefties, but very bad against righties. Carlos Martinez is turning into a high quality starter for the Cardinals and he has a fantastic defense and great bullpen behind him. Urena has made some nice starts lately for the Marlins, but I don't trust the youngster yet. The Cardinals have been consistent all year, and they are great when coming off a day off. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cleveland Indians are a team I'm high on, but the Indians have had some serious problems with the Detroit Tigers over the last couple years. At this point, it seems like the Indians have very little confidence when they face the Tigers. David Price pitched a complete game shutout last time out against the Indians. Price has been dealing of late. Danny Salazar is a good pitcher, but he has allowed a home run on 16% of his fly balls this year, and that home run problem could be a real problem against this Detroit lineup. Price has a 2.11 ERA in 11 starts against Cleveland. 

Detroit is 7-0 in Price's last 7 starts on 5 days of rest. The Tigers are 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. They are 12-1 in his last 13 starts vs. the AL Central. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the Indians. A 28-1 angle. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Monday MONEY* John Danks is a guy I look to fade whenever I get the chance. Danks is one of the worst left handed starters in baseball. Danks has been bad against most teams, but he has been downright awful against Minnesota. In 28 career starts vs. Minnesota, he has 5.67 ERA. In 9 starts at Target Field, Danks has a 7.62 ERA. Even worse, Danks has a 10.21 ERA in his last 5 starts in Minnesota. The White Sox rank dead last in OBP vs. a lefty this year, and they face lefty Tom Milone here. Milone has superb numbers against Chicago in his career. Milone has a 1.39 ERA in five career starts vs. the White Sox. The moneyline is a little too expensive for me, so I'm taking the Twins runline.

The White Sox are 2-12 in Danks' last 14 road starts at Minnesota. Take Minnesota -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* Trust me when I tell you I certainly didn't intend to bet against Clayton Kershaw here. This is a numbers bet as well as a situation bet though, and there is too much value for me to overlook this one. The Dodgers played the Sunday Night Baseball game late on Sunday night and they didn't arrive in Chicago until very late. The Cubs were back home early on Sunday. Wada has been good at home, and the Dodgers aren't good against lefties. Los Angeles has a .309 OBP vs. lefties on the year. The Cubs have been great against lefties. Chicago has a .361 OBP against lefties. Kershaw is no average lefty, and there's reason for the Cubs to be an underdog here, but this price is too big. Take the Cubs. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday's Best Bet* The Colorado Rockies have been amazing against right handed pitching this year. Matt Garza is having a really bad season. It's hard to imagine him turning things around against this Rockies lineup. Chris Rusin isn't a good pitcher. Rusin was terrible in the minors, but was still promoted to the big leagues. He hasn't been good in the majors either. The weather is a major factor here too. The temperature is expected to be 95 degrees for this one. A day game at Coors Field with a temperature like that means the ball will be flying extremely well. 

The over is 4-0 in Garza's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts after the Brewers scored 2 runs or less. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts following a team loss. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays have been absolutely crushing the baseball of late. This offense is the hottest in the majors, and it isn't even close. Jose Reyes back in the lineup has helped, and not many people realize how good Josh Donaldson is right now. Chris Tillman has been bad this year, and he has been awful in his career against Toronto. Tillman had a 6.54 ERA in 9 career starts in Toronto. He has a 12.51 ERA in three starts against Toronto this year. I'm not necessarily high on Scott Copeland, but he does have good control and I expect the Blue Jays to give him a lot of run support here.

The Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 games with a total of 9 or higher. They are 0-4 in Tillman's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in Tillman's last 5 starts vs. Toronto. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 with a total of 9 or higher. They are 5-0 in their last 5 during game three of a series. A 23-0 angle. Take Toronto. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday Sweet CASH* The Boston Red Sox offense underachieved all year long. They have finally started to hit the ball better the last few days. I still believe this offense is capable of big things. Edinson Volquez has good numbers so far this year, but he is always capable of giving up a big number. He has been quite lucky so far this year, and that won't continue indefinitely. Rick Porcello has a career 4.3 ERA against the Royals. Kansas City's offense has been pounding out a lot of hits lately as well. 

A big key to this game is the weather. The temperature will be in the low 90's for this one and the wind is expected to be blowing out to center at almost 20 miles per hour. Those conditions will make a big difference, and with two solid offenses and a low total, I'm taking the over. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates are playing some terrific baseball of late. I had the Pirates yesterday against the White Sox, and I'm taking them again here. Gerrit Cole is a pitcher I'm extremely high on. Cole has amazing stuff, and he is now commanding all of his pitches. The White Sox have the lowest on base percentage in baseball this month. I don't think they'll get it going against Cole. Jeff Samardzija has been struggling lately, and he has a 6.17 ERA in June in his career (more than 2 runs higher than any other month). The Pirates offense isn't great, but they should be able to manufacture runs here and get the win.

The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. They are 8-0 in Cole's last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less. They are 4-0 in Cole's last 4 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. They are 5-0 in Cole's last 5 interleague starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 Thursday starts. The White Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right handed pitcher. They are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. A 47-0 angle. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* It's the last game of this series, and this is often the spot where managers will look to sit a few of their best hitters to give them a bit of a break. That fact combined with the strong pitching matchup makes me like the under. Gerrit Cole is a superstar already at a very young age. Cole is unlikely to have trouble against a White Sox lineup that has the worst OBP in baseball this month. Samardzija has been shaky of late, but he does have good career numbers against the Pirates. Relatively cool weather and an under umpire behind the plate in Dan Bellino makes this a nice play.

The under is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 vs. a righty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a -110 to -150 favorite. The under is 4-0 in Cole's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 on 4 days of rest. The under is 7-0-1 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in Cole's last 5 when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Chicago. A 50-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals will start Doug Fister in this one. Fister was really bad before going onto the disabled list, but he was pitching hurt. Fister has proven himself to be a high quality big league pitcher in the past, and he looked great in his last rehab start (6 innings scoreless in Double A). Chris Archer is throwing the ball extremely well this year. Both of these offenses often struggle to string together hits. I don't think we'll see many good scoring chances in this one. Look for a pitcher's duel. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Hector Santiago is a guy that has some regression coming. He is stranding 88% of runners on base, and that's a number that simply can't continue. The Diamondbacks have been very good against left handed pitching this year. Chase Anderson is a young pitcher that I really like a lot. He has an amazing changeup that can make hitters look foolish. Anderson has been throwing the ball really well of late. The Angels offense has been a disappointment this year, and they have been particularly bad against right handed pitching. At this price, I'm backing the home team. Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Houston Astros are doing a lot of things well right now. They have one of the best bullpens in baseball (a massive turnaround from last year). They have some great youngsters who are playing terrific baseball. George Springer is healthy now and he is showing why he has been so highly touted throughout the minors. The Colorado Rockies rank 2nd in weighted on base average against righties, but they are 26th in the majors against lefties. Brett Oberholtzer has pitched well on the road in his young career. Kyle Kendrick is a guy I like to fade whenever I get the chance, and I think this is a good one. The Rockies are 14-46 in their last 60 interleague games. Take Houston. 

*4 Star MLB Major MONEY* The Pittsburgh Pirates are on a roll. They have thrown three shutouts in a row. Pittsburgh's Jeff Locke isn't a particularly consistent starter, but he faces a Chicago White Sox team that has been dreadful against left handed pitching this year. How bad have they been? The White Sox have a ridiculously low .246 on base percentage against lefties. They have been shutout in 5 of their last 11 games vs. a left handed starter. John Danks will be on the mound for the White Sox, and he is a guy I like to fade whenever I can. The Pirates offense has been much better lately against left handed pitching. Starling Marte and Josh Harrison have it going once again, and they are catalysts for this team.

Pittsburgh is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 2 runs last game. The White Sox are 0-5 in their last 5. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. A 20-0 angle. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals haven't gotten enough respect this year. They have the best record in baseball because they don't really have a weakness. St. Louis just continues to win games. Minnesota is a team that overachieved for a long time, and now we are seeing their true talent show up. The Twins are better than they were last year, but they aren't a first place team, not even close. Carlos Martinez is a guy I really like, and Tom Milone is a guy I don't. Martinez has some really good stuff, and the Twins have struggled recently vs. right handed pitching. The Cardinals have a really big edge in the bullpen here too if the game is close late.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. They are 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. They are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games. They are 8-0 in Martinez's last 8 starts following a quality start. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game three of a series. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. The Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. They are 0-5 in their last 5 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 51-0 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Atlanta Braves have Alex Wood on the mound, and in my opinion that gives them a clear pitching advantage over the Boston Red Sox who have Joe Kelly on the hill here. Kelly is one of the most inconsistent starting pitchers in all of baseball, and the Braves have been good against right handed pitching this year. On the other hand, the Red Sox have a weighted on base average that ranks 24th out of 30 teams in the majors against lefties. Atlanta has a nice home field advantage and at this short price, I'm taking the home team. Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers stranded runners like it was their job last night. Milwaukee did end up getting to 5 runs with a three run ninth, but the offense wasn't good at cashing in on opportunities yesterday. Kansas City's offense is very professional. They don't have guys who strike out a lot, and this Brewers defense isn't good. If Kansas City puts balls in play as they normally do, good things should happen. Matt Garza's stuff has declined quite a bit in the past year. Chris Young isn't a bad pitcher, but the Brewers offense is much improved with Lucroy in the lineup and Braun being healthy. 

The over is 18-0 in the Brewers last 18 as an underdog following a home loss where they left 9 or more on base. The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 games vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 3-0-1 in Guccione's last 4 games behind the plate with Milwaukee involved. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* In a spot where we essentially have the Yankees at even money, I like the value a lot here. New York has the edge in every single spot in this matchup. Nathan Eovaldi is a better pitcher than David Phelps. The Yankees have a huge advantage when it comes to their lineup vs. the Marlins. The Marlins have hit lefties well this year, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors vs. righties. The Yankees bullpen is also one of the best in the majors. The road team's price is discounted here. Take the Yankees. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play SMASHER* The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst team in baseball in my opinion. Philadelphia has been particularly miserable on the road this year (7-27). The Baltimore Orioles underachieved for quite a while, but they are finally starting to play to their talent level. The Orioles have a deep lineup and a great defensive team. Showalter is one of the best managers in the game also. Philadelphia has barely averaged 3 runs per game against righties this year. The Orioles should put up several against an aging Jerome Williams, and I think this one gets ugly. At plus money, I really like the run line here. Take Baltimore -1.5 big! 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* My strongest lean that didn't end up making the cut on Monday was the Atlanta Braves ML. I was kicking myself for not playing that one at a silly price on Monday. I'm not going to pass it up a second straight game. Boston is in a nasty tailspin right now. The Red Sox don't deserve to be laying -160 against anyone. While Julio Teheran hasn't been very good this year, he has quality stuff and he faces a Red Sox lineup that is really inconsistent. Wade Miley has a high ERA and the Braves have a scrappy offense. I'm not high on the Braves, but this price is simply too high. Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Francisco Giants have lost 9 games in a row at home. This losing streak is getting a little silly. San Francisco has a pretty good lineup (not as good without Pence) and a good bullpen. In this game, they have a guy on the mound who has taken advantage of AT&T Park nicely in his career. Tim Lincecum has been much better at home, and the Seattle Mariners rank in the bottom five in the majors in on base average against right handed pitching. J.A. Happ is nothing better than a mediocre lefty and the Giants hit lefties well. Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, and Nori Aoki have hit Happ really well in a limited sample size. The Giants get back on track at home. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Dallas Keuchel is still underrated. Keuchel has great stuff that usually forces opponents to hit it on the ground. The Rockies power hitters are likely to be neutralized by Kuechel's sinker. Colorado ranks 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against righties, but 24th against lefties. Houston's offense is inconsistent and Chad Bettis has thrown the ball well this year. Houston strikes out at the highest rate of anyone in baseball, and he should take advantage of that.

The under is 7-0 in the Rockies last 7 road games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in Houston's last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Keuchel's last 4 Monday starts. The under is 5-0 in Keuchel's last 5 overall. The under is 5-0 in Keuchel's last 5 as a favorite of -151 to -200. The under is 9-1 in Keuchel's last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record on the road. A 41-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves offense has really hit the baseball well against right handed pitching this year. Rick Porcello is among the streakiest pitchers in baseball, and Porcello has not been good of late. Williams Perez has very mediocre stuff, and the Red Sox offense is still very talented. Boston has underachieved this year, but I expect them to score a lot of runs from here on out. Also very important here is the fact that we have two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. There could certainly be a lot of runs in the late innings in this matchup.

The over is 3-0-1 in Atlanta's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 as a road underdog. The over is 3-0-1 in Boston's last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts during game one of a series. A 45-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox both rank in the bottom five in the majors when it comes to hitting against a left handed pitcher. Francisco Liriano is clearly an above average lefty in this league. Carlos Rodon has one of the highest upsides of any pitcher in baseball. He has thrown the ball really well in his last couple outings, and he has a favorable matchup here. Both of these starters are great at missing bats, and that should lead to a lot of whiffs.  There is a chance for rain during this game. In some cases that might keep me off a play, but with two strong bullpens here, I like the value on the under.

The under is 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games vs. a lefty. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage is 40% or lower. The under is 4-0-2 in the Pirates last 6 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 following a win. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 home games. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 as a favorite. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 after scoring two runs or less. A 46-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Miami Marlins can't hit right handed pitching, but they have been great against lefties this year. Most baseball bettors know which team in the majors is first in weighted on base average against lefties (Toronto), but most don't know that the Miami Marlins are second. Jorge De La Rosa is a mediocre lefty. Dan Haren isn't as good as his numbers look and the Colorado Rockies offense is far better than they have shown recently. Their recent poor production has lowered the number here, and that gives us a nice value. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland Athletics rank 27th in the majors in weighted on base average vs. lefties. Oakland has hit it really well against righties this year, but they are bad against lefties. C.J. Wilson has been good most of this year, and he has a nice history against Oakland. The Angels are 5-2 in his last 7 starts vs. Oakland. The Athletics aren't as bad as their record, but I'll look for spots to fade them vs. a lefty. Oakland's bullpen has been a major problem this year, and the Angels bullpen has been surprisingly good. Kendall Graveman is inconsistent and the Angels offense is heating up. Take the Angels. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies square off in Miami on Saturday afternoon. Paul Schrieber is the home plate umpire in this one, and he has had the single smallest strike zone in the majors over the last few years. Pitchers often get frustrated with his zone, and it should hurt both David Hale and Mat Latos. Hale isn't a good pitcher, and Latos is a very emotional pitcher who can be prone to outbursts that hurt his performance. The Rockies offense is far better than they have shown in this series so far, and I expect them to break out soon. The Marlins offense is slowly coming around, and the Rockies bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball. There should be plenty of guys on base throughout this game. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* I lost last night with the Pirates run line as they won 1-0 in extra innings, but I like the value on the Pirates run line again here. Gerrit Cole is very underrated at this stage of his career. Cole is a guy who I see making the leap to superstar status right now. The Phillies have been the single worst team in the league vs. right handed pitching this year. Philadelphia's road record is 7-24. They start Sean O'Sullivan here, and I think he is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors today. He likely wouldn't be in any other rotation in the majors. Cole has been great in three career appearances vs. the Phillies and I expect a lopsided game here. Take Pittsburgh -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been disappointing much of the year. They have been better of late, but Jesse Chavez has been throwing the ball extremely well lately. Chavez also has a 2.30 ERA in his career at Angels Stadium. Hector Santiago has been good this year, and the Oakland A's are much worse against left handed pitching than they are against righties. Oakland's bullpen is slowing throwing the ball slightly better, and the Angels bullpen has been very good this year. 

The under is 5-0 in the A's last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The under is 4-0-2 in their last 6 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 6-0-1 in Chavez's last 7 starts. The under is 5-0-1 in his last 6 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 5-0 in Santiago's last 5 after the Angels scored 5 runs or more last game. A 29-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Pittsburgh Pirates are playing some excellent baseball right now. Pittsburgh started the season playing some confusingly bad baseball, but they have turned it on in a big way. Pittsburgh's offense is finally firing on all cylinders, and they'll face Kevin Correia here. Correia has only been mediocre in Triple A this year, and I don't see him being good for the Phillies. Jeff Locke has been bad this year, but this career home numbers are very good and he has allowed just 4 runs against the Phillies in his career in 26 and 2/3 innings. The Phillies are awful this year and the Pirates have a strong shot at a comfortable win. Take Pittsburgh -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers start Mike Fiers in this one. Fiers is a guy who I believe is underrated by many. He has a deceptive delivery and he does a good job producing a high rate of strikeouts. Jordan Zimmermann is another underrated pitcher. Zimmermann isn't necessarily flashy like some of the Nationals starters, but he is consistently good. Zimmermann has a career ERA of 1.50 at Miller Park. Also important to note is Zimmermann's 0.45 ERA in three starts with home plate umpire Mike Everitt behind the dish. Fiers has a career ERA of 1.59 against Washington. 

The under is 4-0 in Zimmermann's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 8-0 in the Brewers last 8 following a win. The under is 6-0 in Fiers' last 6 starts. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Big Line Value* This isn't a play I intended to make before the lines came out, but this price is just silly. What have the Oakland A's done to justify laying this kind of a price against a team with a winning record? Baseball is a sport where you just have to bet prices, and this is one of those bets. While I really don't like Texas in the long run, anything can happen in one game and Scott Kazmir is really unpredictable. Chi Chi Gonzalez hasn't allowed a run this year. Both of his appearances came against good lineups too. The Rangers rank in the top five in the majors in on base percentage against lefties. Oakland has the worst bullpen ERA in baseball. Oakland deserves to be favored here, but definitely not by this much. Oakland is 0-6 in Kazmir's last 6 starts. They are 0-4 in Kazmir's last 4 as a favorite. Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I've taken the under and cashed in the last two nights in this series and I'm taking the under again here. I usually don't take unders with guys making their major league debut, but I'm doing it here with Velasquez starting for Houston. He faces a White Sox lineup that has been bad this year. The Houston bullpen is one of the best in the league now, and the White Sox pen is much improved from a year ago too. For a very long time, the oddsmakers have been setting lines that are too high on Jose Quintana's games. The under is 35-15-3 in his last 53 starts overall. Quintana is an underrated lefty, and the Astros offense is reeling right now.

The under is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 6-0 in Quintana's last 6 after the White Sox allowed 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The under is 7-0 in Toby Basner's last 7 games as the home plate umpire. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Detroit Tigers aren't even close to the team they appeared to be at the beginning of the year. The rotation is a mess right now behind David Price, and Shane Greene is working his way out of the rotation with his bad outings of late. Greene was never as good as he looked early this year. Jake Arrieta is a really good pitcher for the Cubs. Arrieta has a tremendous cutter and he should use it well against Detroit here. The Tigers are banged up, and their bullpen has been struggling lately. The Cubs have played well this year, and they aren't getting enough respect here. Take Chicago. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds offense has found its way against the hapless Philadelphia Phillies over the last couple weeks. Cincinnati is a much better team when Joey Votto is hot, and he hit 3 home runs last night and is seeing it as well as anyone in baseball now. Philadelphia's offense has been much better over the last few weeks, and the Reds pitching staff is bad. Jon Moscot hasn't been particularly good in the minors, and he doesn't have high quality stuff. Jerome Williams starts for the Phillies here, and he is way below league average when it comes to starting pitchers. It will be a warm day in Cincinnati and the ball should be flying well.

The over is 8-0 in the Phillies last 8 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 as an underdog. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Williams' last 4 as an underdog. The over is 7-0 in the Reds last 7 vs. the NL East. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 73-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves are two teams headed in different directions right now. San Diego's offense is heating up of late, and their bullpen has been improved in the last couple weeks. Atlanta's offense is finally showing signs of slowing down. The Braves lineup has overachieved all year. James Shields has had some bad luck this year and he's due for some positive regression. Mike Foltynewicz is erratic at this point in his career, and I think the Padres will take advantage of his mistake pitches.

The Padres are 4-0 in his last 4 during game 2 of a series. The Padres are 7-0 in Shields' last 7 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. Atlanta is 0-5 in his last 5 games vs. a right handed starter. San Diego is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. Atlanta. A 30-0 angle. Take San Diego. 

*4 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Chicago White Sox have the lowest on base percentage in the majors against left handed pitching, and it's not even close. They'll face a really good lefty here in Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is still underrated by many in my opinion. He keeps the ball down and does a good job commanding all of his pitches. Carlos Rodon is a tremendous talent. He is inconsistent right now, but he does a great job missing bats and the Astros strike out at a really high rate. Houston's offense has really cooled off lately, and I think this is a good spot for Rodon to perform at a high level. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees have been swinging some really hot bats lately, but Max Scherzer is the perfect guy to cool off this Yankees lineup. Scherzer is coming off a slightly subpar start in Toronto. I don't think he'll struggle two starts in a row. This guy is throwing the ball better than he has in his entire career. Tanaka is healthy again for the Yankees and that's huge. Washington's lineup has been really bad lately. Both of these bullpens are excellent. Look for a nice pitcher's duel in this one. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros offense has struggled in a big in the last few games. Even against a really bad Toronto pitching staff, they had a tough time putting together big innings very often. Houston strikes out a lot and that plays right into the hands of lefty Chris Sale. Sale is one of the best lefties in the game, and he's been in great form the last few outings. The White Sox offense ranks in the bottom five in the majors in all of the major categories. Lance McCullers has electric stuff. I question his ability to be consistent throughout this year, but this is a good matchup for him. The under is 21-7 in the Astros last 28 games vs. a lefty. The under is 12-3 in the White Sox last 15 as a home favorite. Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday Play of Day* The Seattle Mariners offense is really bad, and Chris Archer is a tremendous young pitcher. Archer has been in top form of late, and it's hard to see Seattle getting to him in this one. Montgomery is one of the top pitching prospects in the Mariners organization and I've liked what I've seen from him thus far. He'll face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that is undoubtedly one of the worst lineups in the American League. Both pitchers get a huge boost from the home plate umpire in this one. Doug Eddings is behind the dish and he's arguably the best under umpire in the game because of his huge strike zone.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Rays last 7 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The under is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in Seattle's last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The under is 11-1 in Seattle's last 12 as a home underdog of +110 to +150. A 40-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies offense has finally started to produce a bit of late. Oddsmakers have had to put really low totals on the Phillies games this year, but they are finally getting beat by a combination of the Phillies pitching staff being bad and their offense finally being less bad. Ryan Vogelsong has a career ERA of just about 5 on the road, and he isn't a guy I trust. Sean O'Sullivan is even worse than Vogelsong, and the Giants offense has been great against right handed pitching this year. Hunter Pence should miss this game, but the Giants still have a pretty nice lineup. Two pitchers who can give up runs in a hurry here.

The over is 5-0-2 in the Giants last 7. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in the Phillies last 5. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as an underdog. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total set between 7 and 8.5. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Houston Astros have dropped the first two games of this series. While I do believe Houston is due to come back to earth, I like their chances of grabbing the last game of this set on Sunday. R.A. Dickey hasn't been good at all this year, and the Astros have a lot of guys who have hit him well. Collin McHugh is a quality pitcher who keeps the ball down. The Blue Jays will be without Edwin Encarnacion, and he is a key part of this offense. While Toronto certainly has a lineup advantage, the Astros have a starting pitching edge and a huge bullpen edge. Houston is in a good position here and at a good price. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday MLB MONEY* The New York Mets haven't been good on the road this year. The Mets are 2-10 in their last 12 road games. Arizona has a nice home field advantage at Chase Field, and I like their starting pitcher in this one. Chase Anderson is a good young pitcher who had a bad outing last time out. He should be better against a Mets lineup that has been awful against right handed pitching all year. Bartolo Colon isn't a bad pitcher at this point, but he is 42 years old and he's no better than mediocre. The Diamondbacks lineup is much deeper. Nice price on the home team. Take Arizona. 

*4 Star TGIF Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians offense has been great lately. Jason Kipnis is the hottest hitter in the American League, and he's knocking the cover off the ball from the leadoff spot. Carlos Santana is slowly warming up and Michael Brantley is a tremendous run producer. The Indians will face Chris Tillman here. Tillman has been really bad this year. He has an ERA close to 6. In his career when pitching at Cleveland, he has a 7.07 ERA. Shaun Marcum starts here for the Tribe, and it's hard to imagine he's an answer in the long run for Cleveland in the starting rotation. Marcum has a 5.49 ERA this year, and his advanced metrics suggest he has been even worse than that. Baltimore's offense has been slumping, but they are better than they have shown lately and Marcum might be the guy to help them get going. The over is 13-6 in the Indians last 19 home games. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds have lost the first two games of this series in amazingly pathetic fashion. The Reds have been inventing ways to lose in these first two games. They were in total control in both games, and lost late. Cincinnati isn't a good team, but they are definitely a better team than the Phillies. There won't be many chances to go against Philadelphia at just about even money when Cole Hamels isn't the starting pitcher. Aaron Harang has been good this year, but regression is coming for him at some point. Anthony DeSclafani is a pretty good young pitcher and the Phillies are awful against righties. Cincinnati avoids the sweep. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Houston Astros have an ace in Dallas Keuchel. This is a guy that doesn't get enough attention. Keuchel is great at keeping the ball on the ground and commanding all of his pitches. Baltimore's offense has been in a miserable slump over the past couple weeks. They are much worse against left handed pitching, and Keuchel is one of the best lefties in baseball today. Wei Yin Chen has been good against Houston in his career, and the Astros offense has definitely slowed down a lot of late. Brian Gorman is the home plate umpire here and his large strike zone is great news for both pitchers.

The under is 6-0-1 in Chen's last 7 as a road underdog. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts on grass. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0 in Keuchel's last 4 during game four of a series. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angels offense ranks in the bottom five in the majors against right handed pitching. The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst offenses overall in baseball. Hector Santiago is really coming into his own for the Angels, and the Angels bullpen has been very good this year. Nate Karns was shaky early in the year, but he has been throwing the ball really well in his last few outings. The Angels have a lot of guys who are prone to striking out, and Karns has some good strikeout pitches. Jeff Kellogg is a pretty good draw for an under because of a relatively large strike zone. 

The under is 4-0 in Karns' last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 3-0-1 in the Angels last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 4-0 in Santiago's last 4 following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. an AL East opponent. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* Mike Bolsinger isn't as good as he has pitched so far this year, but neither is Chad Bettis. The Dodgers offense is deeper than the Rockies offense right now. Another key for this game is the difference between the two bullpens. The Dodgers have arguably the best bullpen in the National League. The Rockies might have the worst. That's important because rain is a real possibility here, and a rain delay could mean more action for the bullpens. The Dodgers won a wild one last night, and I think that's the type of game that can be really tough to recover from for a team like Colorado. Two of Bettis' four starts this year have been against the Phillies. Trying to quiet the Dodgers at Coors Field is a much tougher task. The Rockies are 30-68 in their last 98 following a loss. They are 6-20 in their last 26 games vs. the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles here. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals have slumped a bit lately, but this is still a very good team. They have one of the better bullpens in baseball, and they have a lot of pitching depth. Taylor Jordan has pitched well in the minors and I think he can be a decent starter. Mark Buehrle is a guy I'm looking to fade whenever I can, and I like these odds. The Blue Jays offense is very good, but they aren't even close to as good against right handed pitching as they are against lefties. The Nationals are 59-27 in their last 86 home games against lefties. The Blue Jays are 17-35 in their last 52 road games. A good value here on the home team. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Here we have a matchup between two pitchers who have been really nice surprises this season. Chris Heston's tremendous work this year is one of the main reasons the Giants have been able to be so good despite a lot of injury problems. A.J. Burnett wasn't good last year, but he dealt with a hip injury all of last year. He is healthy now, and he has been dealing. Burnett has been one of the top pitchers in the National League so far this year. Burnett's career ERA against the Giants is just barely above 2. Another key reason for this play is the main behind the dish. Bill Miller is one of the best under umpires in the game, and there will be a big strike zone in this one. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cleveland Indians have finally heated up. This team was certainly far better than they looked early this year, and I still believe they have an outside shot at winning the AL Central. The offense is hitting the ball very well right now, and the Indians starting rotation is one of the best in baseball. Carlos Carrasco has had some terrible luck on batted balls in play so far this year, which tells me he should have some positive regression coming in the future. The Royals lineup has cooled down a bit of late. Jeremy Guthrie isn't a good pitcher, and his career ERA against the Indians is 6.14 in 73 and 1/3 innings. The Indians deserve to be a bigger favorite in this one. Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Cubs have been mashing left handed pitching all season. Chicago averages one and a half runs per game more against lefties than they do against righties. The Cubs have a .356 on base percentage which is the second best OBP in the majors against lefties. Miami ranks in the bottom five in the majors in OBP against right handed pitching. The Marlins have a .299 OBP against righties this year. Kyle Hendricks is an above average righty and Brad Hand has shown to be a below average lefty in his career. Miami is a mess right now, and the Cubs are playing with confidence. 

The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 during game two of a series. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They are 0-4 in Brad Hand's last 4 starts on grass. A 22-0 angle. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Atlanta Braves picked up some momentum with two straight road wins in San Francisco the last two days. Atlanta isn't a team I'll look to back many times this year, and this play is more about the spot than anything else. The Braves picked up their win in San Francisco and immediately traveled to Arizona and got in plenty early. Arizona lost a 17 inning heartbreaker in Milwaukee and arrived back home late. The Diamondbacks used up their bullpen in that game, and that could play a role here too.

The other key factor for me here is the starting pitching matchup. Alex Wood is entering the prime of his career, and he's a quality lefty. Wood has a better career ERA on the road (2.93) than he does at home. Archie Bradley's control has been terrible since coming back from a scary injury. At plus money and in the better spot with a strong starting pitcher, I'm backing the Braves. Arizona is 0-5 in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks have Chase Anderson on the hill on Sunday afternoon. Anderson is a young pitcher who I have on my list to back when the price is right. Anderson has one of the best changeups in baseball, and that alone makes him tough to hit on most days. When he's mixing in his other pitches with good command, Anderson is very good. The Brewers offense hasn't been good this year, and the Diamondbacks lineup has been better than expected. Tomas stepping up and providing another key bat behind Goldschmitt has been big. Ty Wagner makes his first major league start here for the Brewers. Wagner has been good in the minors this year, but he's been in Double A. It's a huge jump from Double A ball up to the majors, and against a high quality pitcher I'm fading the major league debut of Wagner.

Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of 40% or lower. Milwaukee is 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a right handed starter. They are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The DBacks are 4-0 in their last 4 at Milwaukee. A 21-0 angle. Take Arizona. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Chicago White Sox should be without star first baseman Jose Abreu in this one. Abreu has a finger injury, and Robin Ventura he doesn't expect him to play Saturday. Abreu is undoubtedly the best hitter in this White Sox lineup, and Garcia is questionable with an injury too. Even with Abreu and Garcia, the White Sox have a weighted on base average of .246 against lefties which is easily the worst mark in the majors. Houston ranks 19th out of 30 against lefties. Dallas Keuchel and Jose Quintana are both underrated left handed starters. Keuchel is the type of guy who can totally shut down a lineup with his ability to keep the ball on the ground and pitch efficiently. Quintana is a better pitcher on the road than at home. Both of these guys are better when pitching during the daytime as well. These two bullpens are the most improved in baseball. 

The under is 8-0-2 in Quintana's last 10 Saturday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL West. The under is 2-0 in Keuchel's last 2 starts. A 14-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*3 Star MLB TGIF Play of Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense was terrible for a long time this year, but they are finally heating up nicely. Pittsburgh has scored at least 4 runs in seven straight contests. Even more impressive, they have scored 8 runs or more in 3 of their last 6 games. San Diego is a much better offense against left handed pitching. The Padres have a .333 On Base Percentage against lefties compared to just .292 against righties.

After starting the season out really well, Francisco Liriano has been shaky of late. Liriano pitched well last game against the Mets, but there are definitely many more dangerous hitters in this Padres lineup. James Shields has been medicore so far this year. He faces a Pirates lineup that has a ton of confidence right now. The Padres defense is the worst in the majors (by a large margin) and that definitely helps the over. A total of 6 is usually saved for a matchup between guys like Kershaw and Bumgarner. This number is just too low. The over is 4-0 in Shields' last 4 home starts. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners have been a disappointment this year. Taijuan Walker has been a huge disappointment. After shutting down everyone in Spring Training, Walker has been terrible all through the regular season. Walker must face a Cleveland Indians lineup that is really swinging the bats well right now. Jason Kipnis is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and Michael Brantley is very underrated at the plate. Trevor Bauer has improved quite a bit this year, and the Indians have the pitching edge here. No doubt the Indians have a better lineup as well. At plus money, I'm on the Indians. 

The Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The Mariners are 0-4 in Walker's last 4 starts as a home favorite. Seattle is 0-5 in Walker's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts after the team gave up 5 runs or more. A 17-0 angle. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins have been bashing left handed pitching of late. They have won 11 straight games against left handed pitching. Minnesota is averaging nearly a run per inning against left handed starters during that time. Mark Buehrle is at the end of his career, and he no longer has good stuff. Minnesota should be able to get to him in this one. Trevor May has been very shaky throughout his young career, and the Toronto lineup is getting healthy. With Jose Reyes back, the Blue Jays might have the best first four of any lineup in the majors. The Twins bullpen is only ok, and the Jays bullpen is awful.

The over is 6-0-1 in Buehrle's last 7 Friday starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in May's last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 8-1 in his last 9 home starts. A 24-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates have finally heated up. This team is definitely better than they looked through the first month and a half of the season. Now, they are on a roll and coming into San Diego with a lot of confidence. Pittsburgh is a team without a clear weakness. The offense looked like a weakness early in the year, but they are at least a league average offense overall. The starting rotation is good, especially at the top, and the bullpen is good. The defense is one of the best in baseball. San Diego has an improved lineup this year, but the Padres have a much worse pitching staff. The bullpen ranks among the bottom five in the majors. Craig Kimbrel is very good at closer, but other than him, this is a weak pen. The Padres defense is the worst in the majors. Defense is overlooked too often when handicapping baseball. Ian Kennedy has been bad so far this year, and he's a fly ball pitcher with terrible defensive outfielders behind him. A.J. Burnett is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball coming into this matchup.

The Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. They are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. They are 4-0 in Burnett's last 4 after making a quality start. They are 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. San Diego is 0-6 in their last 6 as a home underdog. They are 0-6 in Kennedy's last 6 Thursday starts. A 35-0 angle. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* I can't pass up this price. Andrew Cashner is a very solid pitcher who has had a bunch of bad luck this year. Most of all, the Padres offense doesn't seem to want to score any runs for Cashner. Garrett Richards is definitely a quality pitcher on the other end, but he isn't so dominant that he should be -160 here. The Angels offense has been awful against right handed pitching this year. They have a measly .225 average and a .282 OBP against righties. The Angels are a .500 team right now, and they are still being priced like a team that could win the World Series. They might improve as the season goes, but the Angels have a lot of holes. Way too big of a price. Take San Diego. 

*4 Star MLB Diamond Cutter CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals are arguably the best team in baseball. Lance Lynn has been a beast at home for a long time. Lynn has a 2.80 ERA at home in his career. Josh Collmenter isn't a very good pitcher, and he'll face a Cardinals offense that can really hit right handed pitching. The Cardinals have a massive advantage in the bullpen which is key too. The moneyline here is just too expensive (never more than -150 for me) so I'll take the run line in this spot. The Cardinals have advantages all over in this one. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals have Max Scherzer on the mound for this one. Scherzer has been awesome this year. He has pitched even better than the last couple seasons, which is a real feat considering how good he was then. Scherzer's peripherals show it hasn't been luck at all, he's just been dominating. Jon Lester is definitely a good pitcher too, but I don't rate him as high as Scherzer, and Lester hasn't pitched very well at Wrigley Field. The Nationals have several guys who hit left handed pitching well. Washington has a decided advantage in the bullpen too. 

Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite of -150 or less. They are 4-0 in Scherzer's last 4 starts on 4 days rest. They are 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 on grass. A 22-0 angle. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Felix Hernandez and Chris Archer should be a very nice pitcher's duel in Tampa Bay. Neither of these offenses are very good, and they'll be facing an elite starting pitcher in this one. I don't think we'll see many baserunners in this game. King Felix is coming off a rare poor outing, and this is a great chance for him to bounce back. Archer has been great all year long. We got a nice draw in Tripp Gibson behind home plate here. While this total is set low, I see this being a 2-1 or 3-2 type game. 

The under is 5-0-1 in the Mariners last 6 games after giving up 5 runs or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 Wednesday games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The under is 11-1 in Tampa Bay's last 12 as an underdog. A 28-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Mike Leake is a better pitcher away from Great American Ballpark. There's no doubt that this is a tough place to pitch, and Leake has struggled the most during the daytime. This Colorado Rockies lineup is good enough to score runs no matter where they play, and here they get a shot in another very hitter friendly park. Kyle Kendrick isn't a good starting pitcher, and the Reds offense is going to wake up sooner or later. Kendrick gives them a real opportunity to do just that. Both bullpens are awful and it will be in the 80's and the ball should carry well here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher in baseball in my book. He doesn't have the postseason success yet to make him the best in October, but his regular season success over his career has been amazing. Kershaw hasn't had quite the start to this year that he typically has, but it's only a matter of time before he starts mowing opponents down methodically once again. Atlanta has been good offensively against right handed pitching this year, but they rank 27th out of 30 teams in the majors in on base percentage against lefties. Kershaw should dominate here. Julio Teheran has been really shaky this year. Teheran is giving up a lot of long balls, and the Dodgers have tons of guys who can take him deep. The Dodgers have a huge bullpen advantage too. Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* The Minnesota Twins aren't this good. I know it's a feel good story, and the team deserves credit for being so good early in the year, but don't get used to seeing them in contention in the AL Central. Minnesota is playing over their heads, and Mike Pelfrey is one of the guys I expect to regress back to his old self to lead the team south in the coming weeks and months. Pelfrey has been proven as a poor pitcher, and a few good starts here hasn't changed my mind. Clay Buchholz has shown positive signs of late, and his peripherals suggest he has had a lot of bad luck so far this season. Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have David Price on the mound on Tuesday night. Price is one of the top lefties in baseball. The Oakland A's lineup has been good this year against right handed pitching, but they rank second to last against lefties when it comes to on base percentage. Oakland's bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, and Jesse Chavez isn't likely to be able to duplicate Jesse Hahn's complete game effort from Monday. Detroit rested some of their top bats on Monday, and I expect them to be back in the lineup here. There's no doubt that Detroit has a much stronger lineup than Oakland. In the past, the A's have had a good bullpen, but that's a major weakness for them this year. The Tigers bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack. 

Detroit is 4-0 in Price's last 4 road starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. Oakland is 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a lefty. They are 0-4 in their last 4 as a home underdog. They are 0-5 in Chavez's last 5 as an underdog. They are 0-4 in his last 4 following a quality start. A 40-0 angle. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals have the best record in baseball. While a lot of people have been talking about their pitching staff and their defense, the Cardinals offense deserves plenty of credit too. This lineup is really deep, and that is what sets them apart from most National League lineups. Archie Bradley has struggled through major control problems in his last two starts. If he has those same problems against St. Louis, they might score the 8 runs we need by themselves. I like Arizona's chances to score several here too though. Jaime Garcia looked shaky, stranding lots of runners on base, in his debut against the Mets last week. Arizona is in the top 8 in the majors in OBP against lefties. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Texas Rangers aren't as good as they have looked in the past week. Texas ranks in the top five in the majors in hitting against left handed pitching, but they have struggled all year against right handed pitchers. Danny Salazar has some really good stuff, and he pitches better at home. Wandy Rodriguez has been better than expected so far this year, but it isn't going to continue. It's only a matter of time until Rodriguez is absolutely blasted. The Indians offense is red hot right now. My numbers made the Indians a much bigger favorite than this. I don't like laying this kind of juice very often, but I think it's justified here. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Toronto Blue Jays are easily the best team in the majors when it comes to hitting left handed pitching. They have an insanely good .365 on base percentage against left handed pitching. They are averaging 5.73 runs per game against lefties. John Danks is one of the worst lefties in baseball. I don't expect Danks to last very long in this game. Jose Reyes is back from an injury and Jose Bautista is expected to DH on Tuesday according to a Toronto beat writer. R.A. Dickey has been bad this year, and his career ERA vs. the White Sox is 8.10. Chicago's lineup is pretty good, and they should put up several here. 

The over is 4-0 in Danks' last 4 Tuesday starts. The over is 8-0-1 in Danks' last 9 road starts with a total of 9 or higher. The over is 7-0 in Dickey's last 7 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 4-0 in Danks' last 4 road starts against Toronto. A 26-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics have been an over machine at home this year. There are a few reasons for this one. Oakland is really hitting the ball well against right handed pitching this year, and they are facing a right handed pitcher in this one. Shane Greene isn't bad, but he also isn't as good as he has looked early this year. Jesse Hahn isn't a guy with dominant stuff, and even though Victor Martinez is out of the lineup, the Tigers still have one of the best offenses in baseball. Detroit's bullpen isn't great, and the Oakland bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals might be the best team in the National League, so I'm always going to give them a look at this price. Wada is a good pitcher for the Cubs, but Tanner Roark is a really good pitcher as well. Roark does a good job keeping the ball in the yard, and the wind is blowing out in a big way for this Monday game at Wrigley. The Nationals have historically been much better against lefties than righties. Chicago is improved from last year, but I don't think they are in the same category as the Nationals. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Houston Astros have been the biggest surprise in the majors so far this year. I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate, but I do think there are still going to be chances to bet on them in the right spot. I like this spot for them. Dallas Keuchel is a really good pitcher. He excels at getting ground ball outs. The wind will be howling out in Baltimore on Monday afternoon. Wei Yin Chen could have some problems with the long ball against a Houston Astros offense that hits a bunch of homers. I don't think that will be the case for Keuchel, who has one of the highest ground ball rates of anyone in baseball.

The Astros are 6-0 in Keuchel's last 6 road starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts as an underdog. Baltimore is 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. A 16-1 angle. Take Houston. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* The Cincinnati Reds have been in an offensive slump of late. That's one of the main reasons we are getting value in this line. Cincinnati has been on the road and against some really good pitching in the past week. Now, they get to come home to Great American Ballpark, which is one of the best hitters ballparks in the majors, and they'll be up against a poor pitcher in Eddie Butler. On the other side, Jason Marquis isn't good, and the Colorado Rockies have a strong lineup whether they are at Coors Field or not. Note, Great American Ballpark isn't too much of an offensive downgrade from Coors either. Both bullpens are awful once the starters are gone too.

The over is 3-0 in the Reds last 3 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 3-0 in their last 3 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games overall. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. The over is 6-0 in Marquis' last 6 starts overall. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 31-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Kansas City Royals are second in the majors in on base percentage against right handed pitching. Nathan Eovaldi has been up and down this year, and this Royals lineup should test him. Kansas City has a nice combination of making great contact on offense and a defense that is probably the best in the majors. The Yankees are in a big funk right now, and this isn't a good team to try to break out of a slump against. The Yankees are 0-6 in their last 6 as a favorite. The Royals are a live underdog here. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Texas Rangers rank in the top five in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching. Chris Capuano starts this one for the Yankees. Capuano certainly isn't an elite lefty by any means. Yovani Gallardo gets the start for Texas and after a good start to the season, he has been hit hard lately. The Yankees lineup has been in a bit of a funk, but this is a good lineup. Al Porter is a good umpire to have in this one, and the weather conditions are favorable. At just 8.5, I see value on the over in this one.

The over is 3-0-2 in the Yankees last 5 as a home favorite. The over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in Capuano's last 6 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts overall. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been a winning machine at home this year. The San Diego Padres are definitely better offensively than they were last year, but their recent slump at the plate has shown they still have a lot of room for improvement. Frias has been extremely good for the Dodgers this year, and his peripheral numbers show that his work thus far hasn't been luck. He has just been really good. James Shields is stranding 88% of runners on base this year, and that isn't a number that can stay that high. The Dodgers are first in the majors in OBP against righties. Take the Dodgers here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Kyle Gibson is an inconsistent pitcher, but he's been good against the White Sox in the past, and May has proven to be a great month for him in his career. Gibson's career ERA in May is 2.72, which is far lower than any other month. Gibson has had better control of late. Jose Quintana is a really underrated starter for the White Sox. Quintana has a 1.63 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Minnesota Twins. Both of these bullpens are much improved from a year ago, and that's a big key here too. The wind will be blowing in from center field at about 10 miles per hour here. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Gibson's last 5 road starts. The under is 5-0-1 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 6-0 in the White Sox last 6 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 4-0 in Quintana's last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. A 48-0 angle. Take the under.