Sports Picks & Predictions

7* MNF Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals PK

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their bye week after tying the Washington Redskins in London.  They are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  Tyler Eiffert returned against the Redskins, and he and AJ Green both had over 100 yards receiving.  This Bengals' offense should thrive now with Eiffert back in the fold because they already have a strong running game.  The Giants cannot say the same as they average just 68 rushing yards per game.  The Giants have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games.  Their 3-game winning streak comes to an end tonight against the superior Bengals.  Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Take Cincinnati.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Key: The Packers are just .500 at this late in the season for the first time since Aaron Rodgers' rookie year.  Off two straight losses, it's clear that the Packers will be playing with a sense of urgency.  Tennessee's Nissan Stadium will be turned into Lambeau Field South today as the Titans just have no home-field advantage at all.  The only team they can beat at home is the Jaguars over the past couple seasons.  Oh yeah, they also beat the winless Browns 28-26 earlier this season at home.  The Titans are 12-36-3 ATS in their last 51 games overall and 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Tennessee is 4-15 ATS in home games over the past 3 seasons alone, losing by an average of 8.1 points per game.  The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Green Bay.

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming -7.5

The Key: Wyoming is 5-0 in conference play with a win over Boise State to boot.  With wins in 2 of their final 3 games, the Cowboys will be going to the conference championship game.  But they still have tough games coming up at home against San Diego State and on the road at New Mexico.  They really need to win this game against UNLV if they want to reach their goals.  I look for them to continue playing well against the Rebels here.  UNLV has lost 3 of its last 4 with its only win coming against Hawaii, and I don't expect it to put up much of a fight here. That includes a 23-42 home loss to Colorado State, which is the same team Wyoming beat 38-17 on the road earlier this season.  UNLV is a one-dimensional running team that only completes 45.2% of its passes for 163 yards per game.  Wyoming has been great against the run, giving up just 139 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  Bets on favorites on of 3.5 to 10 points after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Wyoming.

7* BC/FSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +20.5

The Key: The Florida State Seminoles have already suffered 3 losses this season and are merely playing for bowl positioning.  They're not concerned at all about this game against Boston College.  They were flat last week in their 24-20 win over NC State, and I don't see them putting forth a much better effort here.  Keep in mind that Boston College also beat NC State 21-14 on the road as 14-point dogs two weeks ago.  Speaking of 14, the Eagles haven't lost by more than 14 points to Florida State in any of the past 3 meetings.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last 3 seasons.  After failing to cover in a blowout loss to Louisville last week, the Eagles are undervalued here.  Take Boston College.

7* Browns/Ravens AFC North Game of the Month on Cleveland +8

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens can't be trusted to lay this kind of weight.  Not when they haven't blown anyone out over the past two seasons.  The Ravens haven't won a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 24 games.  They have been the kings of close games as 22 of those 24 games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  Plus, the Ravens are coming off a huge win over the rival Steelers on Sunday, so they could come out flat here against the Browns.  The Browns have at least been competitive in the majority of their games, and they will be again here tonight against the offensively-challenged Ravens.  The Ravens are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Baltimore.  Take Cleveland.

7* Bills/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +6.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are 4-4 this season and catching too many points here against the Seattle Seahawks.  They have only lost one game by more than 6 points this season, and that was last week against the New England Patriots, who just cannot be stopped right now.  But the Bills get back LeSean McCoy this week and add in Percy Harvin.  Seattle is 4-2-1 this season, but two of its wins came by exactly 2 points at home against the Dolphins and Falcons.  The Seahawks are broken offensively.  They rank 29th in points per game (18.7) and 23rd in total offense.  Their defense is missing DE Martellus Bennett and S Kam Chancellor as well.  The Bills are averaging 29.3 points per game in their last 7 games since changing offensive coordinators.  Buffalo is 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses over the past 3 seasons, coming back to win by 14.6 points per game.  Take Buffalo.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on New York Giants -3

The Key: The New York Giants are showing great value as 3-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles today.  They should be much bigger favorites here.  They enter on a 2-game winning streak and are coming off their bye week to get healthy.  The Eagles have lost 3 of their last 4 and just aren't playing well right now.  They are also coming off an overtime game against the Cowboys, and it's going to be tough to bounce back from that against a Giants team off their bye.  The Giants are 2-1 at home this season and outgaining teams by 76 yards per game.  The Eagles are 1-3 on the road and getting outgained by 81 yards per game.  This is a very short price for the Giants at home given the situation.  Take New York.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Arkansas +4

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are fresh off their bye week.  They needed it after playing the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in consecutive weeks.  Quarterback Austin Allen is now healthy and ready to lead his troops at home against 11th-ranked Florida.  The Gators may be the most overrated team in their country because their 6-1 start has come against a very easy schedule.  They best team they've played is Tennessee, and they lost 38-28 on the road.  They also barely beat Vanderbilt 13-6 in their other true road game.  The Razorbacks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover against the spread.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Arkansas.

7* SJSU/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +30

The Key: The Boise State Broncos just had their dreams crushed of playing in the Cotton Bowl.  They lost 28-30 at Wyoming last week as 14.5-point underdogs.  I expect them to come out flat tonight against the San Jose Spartans, which is going to make it extremely difficult to cover this 30-point spread.  The Broncos have been one of the worst bets in college football, yet they still keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers.   They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They only won by 1 at home over BYU, by 5 at home over Colorado State, by 11 at home over Utah State and by 3 at home over Washington State in their four home games, where they've gone 0-4 ATS.  The Spartans come in with confidence after winning 2 of their last 3 games while not committing a single turnover in that stretch, which has made the biggest difference.  The Broncos are 0-7 ATS vs. teams who give up 8 or more yards per pass attempt over the last 3 seasons.  They are only beating these teams by 4.8 points per game.  Take San Jose State.

7* ATL/TB Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play this season, which is the best mark in the entire NFL.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play on the year, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL.  I think this is an absolute mismatch, especially with the Bucs' top 3 running backs out due to injury.  The Oakland Raiders put up 626 yards of offense on the Bucs last week.  The Bucs' defense was on the field for a long time in the OT loss, which works against them on this short week.  The Falcons have the league's top scoring offense and total offense and should shred the Bucs just as the Raiders did.  Tampa Bay is 18-43-1 ATS in its last 62 home games, and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS at home this season.  Take Atlanta.

7* MIN/CHI NFC North *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 40.5

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are an UNDER machine.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Vikings last 26 games overall, 12-3-1 in Vikings last 16 road games, and 7-0 in Vikings last 7 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Bears last 6 division games, and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series.  The Vikings lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense.  But the Vikings are just No. 31 in total offense.  And the Bears are last in the NFL in scoring offense.  This game sets up to be an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle once again.  Take the UNDER.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are coming off their bye week and are in must-win mode now.  They are just 1-5 on the season, though I still believe they are one of the best teams in the NFL, and that will show on Sunday.  The Arizona Cardinals are coming off an overtime tie against the Seahawks and are clearly not in the best shape right now mentally and physically after that contest.  The Panthers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road game.  Cam Newton is 7-1 ATS in his last 8 home starts.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 9 points or fewer in their previous game.  Take Carolina.

7* Miami/ND Non-Conference Game of the Month on Notre Dame +1.5

The Key: This is the start of a new season for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  They have started 2-5 this year and will have to get four wins in their last five games to make a bowl.  There's no question this team is shooting for that target, and the next four games are all winnable against Miami, Navy, Army and Virginia Tech.  Now they've had a bye week to catch their breath and should play one of their best games of the season this week.  It's worth noting that all five of Notre Dame's losses have come by 8 points or less, so they are better than their record.  Maimi has been overmatched in three straight losses to FSU, UNC and VA Tech.  They have been outgained in 4 straight games, while Notre Dame has actually outgained 4 of 7 opponents this season.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who pass for 250 or more yards per game over the last 2 seasons.  They are losing by 17.2 points per game on average.  Take Notre Dame.

7* Jags/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +3.5

The Key: Both of the Jaguars' wins this season have come on the road.  One was against the Colts in London in a game they dominated.  That's the same Colts team that just beat the Titans 34-26 in Tennessee last week.  The Titans are awful at home as they are 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points over the Browns.  They are 2-9 ATS at home over the past 2 seasons and 14-34-3 ATS in their last 51 home games.  The Titans are also 1-12 ATS in their last 13 division games.  The Jags give up just 4.9 yards per play on defense while the Titans allow 5.9 yards per play.  I'll back the better defense here catching 3.5 points.  Take Jacksonville.

7* HOU/DEN AFC *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 40.5

The Key: Both offenses are terrible and both defenses are borderline elite in this game.  The Broncos rank No. 28 in total offense while the Texans are No. 27 in total offense.  Denver ranks No. 4 in total defense while Houston ranks No. 7 in total defense.  Houston's offense is averaging less than 5 yards per play and Denver's defense gives up 4.7 yards per play.  The Texans only average 5.4 yards per pass play while the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up only 183 yards per game.  Points will be at a premium tonight.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games following a win.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Broncos last 15 home games.  Take the UNDER.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are primed for a big performance Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.  They are coming off their bye week following a 17-14 win at Carolina that could have turned their season around.  Now they get to face the lowly 49ers, who have just kept getting crushed week after week.  The 49ers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, losing all five games by at least 7 points, and losing four times by at least 12 points.  Their defense just gave up 491 total yards, including 312 rushing, in a 16-45 loss at Buffalo last week.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game over the past 3 seasons.  It is losing by 12.3 points per game on average.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on TCU +6.5

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs are fresh off their bye after an uninspiring 24-23 win at Kansas two weeks ago.  Gary Patterson has gotten the attention of his players, and I look for the Horned Frogs to put forth their best effort of the season Saturday.  Patterson is the king of using the bye week to his advantage.  His teams are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 off regular season bye weeks.  It's time to sell high on the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-0 but struggled to put away both BYU and Kansas State, beating those two teams by a combined 4 points.  TCU will be the best opponent that WVU has faced this season.  The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take TCU.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +23

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans have played much better in Mountain West play.  They lost by a touchdown to New Mexico, beat Nevada and lost to Hawaii as a favorite.  San Diego State lost at South Alabama by 18 a few weeks ago, ruining their perfect season.  They came back with flat efforts in a 26-7 win over UNLV and a 17-3 win over Fresno State the past two weeks.  The Aztecs have an elite defense, but their offense simply isn't good enough to lay big numbers like this 23-point spread.  They have no passing game, and Donnel Pumphrey may be wearing down.  He has 167 carries already, including 69 in the past two games.  San Diego State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  Take San Jose State.

7* Bears/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +7.5

The Key: There's no way the Packers should be this big of favorites when you consider the injuries they are dealing with right now.  They will be without their top 3 cornerbacks, and Eddy Lacy and James Starks are both expected to miss this game.  It's no wonder they lost to the Cowboys by 14 points Sunday with all the guys they were missing.  And the Packers haven't beaten anyone by more than 7 points this season.  The Bears are better than their 1-5 record as they are outgaining teams by 34 yards per game and have outgained their last 3 opponents by 343 combined yards.  Brian Hoyer has thrown for at least 300 yards in 4 straight games.  He will have a big day against this beat-up Packers' secondary, and the Bears will have a great shot to pull off the upset because of it.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including a 17-13 outright win as 7.5-point road dogs by the Bears last season.  Take Chicago.

7* Jets/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -7

The Key: The New York Jets are a mess right now.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games while getting outscored a combined 33-82 in the process.  The Arizona Cardinals are just 2-3, but they are clearly better than their record.  The Cardinals are outgaining teams by 55 yards per game and outscoring them by nearly 5 points per game.  The Jets are getting outgained by 19 yards per game and getting outscored by nearly 9 points per game.  New Yoprk has all kinds of injury problems too.  LB David Harris is doubtful, WR Eric Decker is out, and CB Darrelle Revis, C Nick Mangold and DE Sheldon Richardson are all questionable.  Carson Palmer makes his return from a concussion tonight, and the Cardinals are extra rested after playing last Thursday.  Without Decker, Arizona can put Patrick Peterson on Brandon Marshall, and the Jets are really going to have a hard time moving the football tonight.  Bets against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 43-17 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arizona.

7* Cowboys/Packers NFC Game of the Month on Green Bay -5

The Key: The Packers are outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game in the 1st half of their last 17 home games.  They still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Dallas Cowboys will get a reality check today.  Dak Prescott is going to have to do more than he's used to today, as he has thrown just 5% of his passes more than 20 yards down field.  He's doing the dink and dunk thing well, but he'll be forced to play from behind in this game.  The Packers will stop the run as they rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up only 43 yards per game and 2 yards per carry.  That will be the difference.  Take Green Bay.

7* NCAAF Situational Game of the Year on Virginia +4

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Yet, they still get no love from oddsmakers here.  They are coming off their two best games of the season with a 49-35 home win over Central Michigan as 5-point dogs and a 34-20 road win at Duke as 3-point dogs.  They had a bye last week, so they'll be fresh and ready to go at home against Pitt this week.  Pitt is dead tired right now after playing 6 straight weeks to open the season, and 4 of its last 5 games were decided by 7 points or less.  I believe the Panthers will run out of gas this week, especially after having to face Georgia Tech's triple-option last week.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia.

7* Miss State/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on UNDER 56.5

The Key: Mississippi State is 54-36 UNDER in all games with Dan Mullen as head coach.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 UNDER in their 5 games this season as well.  Four of those five finished with 52 or less points.  BYU is 4-2 UNDER in its 6 games this season.  Four of those finished with 45 or fewer combined points.  Given that evidence, it appears the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  Both teams are run-first offenses, and both defenses are excellent at stopping the run, so the matchup favors the UNDER as well.  The UNDER is 30-8 in BYU's last 38 games vs. a team that averages 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Take the UNDER.

7* DEN/SD Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +3

The Key: The San Diego Chargers are the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They have held a lead for more minutes than any other team in the league this season.  However, they are 1-4 with their four losses all coming by 4 points or less.  But now the Chargers' season is on the line here against the Broncos.  They can't afford to fall behind any further in the AFC West standings if they are going to make a run.  So with their backs against the wall here at home, I'll back them as 3-point home dogs.  The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a division loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC West foes.  Take San Diego.

7* Appalachian State/LA-Lafayette ESPN 2 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 48.5

The Key: Lafayette is coming off back-to-back overtime games that have inflated this total.  They were tied with Tulane 16-16 at the end of regulation two weeks ago for 32 combined points, then proceeded to score 48 points in OT.  They were tied with New Mexico State 24-24 at the end of regulation last week for 48 combined points, but added 20 more points in OT.  Last year, Appalachian State beat LA Lafayette 28-7 for 35 combined points, and I expect to see a similar result here.  Three of Appalachian State's five games this season finished with 38 or fewer combined points, including last week's 17-3 win over Georgia State.  Both offenses are subpar, and both defenses are better than average, especially Appalachian State.  Both teams also prefer to keep the ball on the ground as the Mountaineers rush 47 times per game while the Rajin' Cajuns rush 46 times per game.  That will keep the clock moving.  Both defenses are good against the run as App State allows 134 yards per game while Lafayette gives up only 116 yards per game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Mountaineers last 4 games following a bye week.  Both teams have had extra time to prepare, which also favors the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* TB/CAR Monday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 46

The Key: Turnovers are the biggest reason both of these teams are off to 1-3 starts.  The Bucs have committed 11 through four games while the Panthers have committed 10.  That has led to easy scores for opponents.  I look for both teams to go with a more conservative approach tonight to try and avoid those turnovers in essentially what is a must-win game for both teams.  And the end result is going to be a defensive battle that is much lower-scoring than this 46-point total would suggest.  I also like the fact that Derek Anderson is starting in place of Cam Newton as the Panthers' offense will be less explosive.  He started two games against Tampa Bay in 2014 in place of an inured Newton.  The Panthers won 20-14 and 19-17 in both those games, which saw 34 and 36 combined points, respectively.  Tampa Bay is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 road games after gaining 4 or fewer yards per play in its previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Bucs last 10 division games.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Bucs last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER.

7* NFC Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +3.5

The Key: No analysis Sunday

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on East Carolina +16

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates have been impressive this season.  The beat NC State 33-30 at home, lost at South Carolina 15-20 while outgaining the Gamecocks by 207 yards, lost 17-54 at VA Tech and was only outgained by 19 yards, and lost to UCF 29-47 despite outgaining the Knights by 148 yards.  Their stats have been tremendous considering the competition faced.  They are averaging 523 yards on offense and giving up 393 on defense, outgaining teams by 130 yards per game.  Now they catch South Florida in a letdown spot off a big road win at Cincinnati last week.  The Bulls are simply getting to much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Pirates are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Bulls are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team has won both meetings the last 2 years and 4 of the last 6 outright despite being underdogs for the majority of the meetings.  Take East Carolina.

7* Clemson/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Boston College +17

The Key: Boston College has the best defense in the country this season, giving up just 202 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play.  That stop unit will keep the Eagles competitive here against Clemson, which is in a massive letdown spot after the win over Louisville on Saturday.  I like Eagles QB Patrick Towles, who has thrown for 806 yards with a 6-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  I think he can make enough plays to keep the Eagles within striking distance.  Boston College is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings and hasn't lost by more than 17 to Clemson in any of the last 4 meetings.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Boston College.

7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -3.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have committed 5 turnovers each in their last 2 games to give away games against the Bills and Rams.  Look for them to shore that up and get a big win here on Thursday night against the lowly San Francisco 49ers.  The Cardinals aren't broken as they rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential at plus-68.5 yards per game.  The 49ers are 1-3 as well, but they are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They rank 31st in yardage differential at negative-97.2 yards per game.  They just lost NaVorro Bowman to a season-ending injury, and their defense was already terrible in allowing 390 yards per game on the season.  Drew Stanton, even though he's a backup, should light up this 49ers defense.  And look for Bruce Arians to get stud RB David Johnson going, especially with run-stopper Bowman out.  The 49ers give up 140 rushing yards per game this season.  San Francisco is 1-11 ATS in games with a total of 35.5 to 42 points over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals swept the season series last year in winning by a combined 66-20 score over the 49ers.  Take Arizona.

7* Sun Belt Total of the Week on Georgia Southern/Arkansas State OVER 54

The Key: Georgia Southern boasts an offense that puts up 33.0 points and 458 yards per game on the season.  The Eagles are averaging 318 rushing yards per game, making this a great matchup for them.  Arkansas State is giving up 36.0 points per game and 239 rushing yards per contest.  This Arkansas State offense started slow, but it has been much better the past two games with Justice Hansen at quarterback.  He threw for 287 yards against Utah State and 424 against Central Arkansas.  He was actually one of the top-rated recruits coming out of high school when he signed with Oklahoma before transferring to junior college last year and then here.  Arkansas State is 8-0 OVER vs. teams who average 4.75 or more rushing yards per attempts over the last 3 seasons.  The Red Wolves are 8-0 OVER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.  The OVER is 22-4 in Red Wolves last 26 conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* Giants/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings aren't as good as their 3-0 record would suggest.  They are getting outgained by 29.7 yards per game on the season, and their offense is still terrible.  Their defense is the reason they are 3-0 as they have gotten several non-offensive touchdowns already.  The Giants probably should be the team that is 3-0 instead of 2-1.  They are outgaining teams by 57 yards per game.  Each of the Giants' first three games have been decided by 3 points or less.  This one is likely to go down to the wire as well, so the 4 points could come into play.  The Vikings aren't going to keep forcing turnovers at this rate as they are +8 in that department.  The Giants aren't going to keep losing the turnover battle as they are -6 in turnovers this season.  The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Take New York.

7* Chiefs/Steelers NFL Total of the Month on UNDER 47.5

The Key: The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams.  They have combined for 36, 32, 29 and 22 points in those four meetings.  That's an average of 29.8 points per game, which is basically 18 points less than this total of 47.5.  Both the Steelers and Chiefs have very good defenses, while the Chiefs have a terrible offense.  This game should easily stay under the total tonight in a battle between two AFC heavyweights.  Take the UNDER.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Washington State +2.5

The Key: The Washington Cougars won nine games last year and contended for a Pac-12 title.  They brought back a ton of talent from that team, including QB Luke Faulk and 8 starters on offense.  So the 1-2 start is shocking, but it also has the Cougars flying under the radar.  They lost their two games by a combined 6 points, including a 3-point loss at Boise State in a game they arguably outplayed the Broncos.  They gained 520 yards against Boise State and held them to 420 yards.  Oregon is 2-2 and has one of its worst teams in years, yet it is a favorite here.  The Ducks have given up at least 26 points in every game and will have their hands full with Faulk.  Oregon does have another good offense that loves to run the ball, but Washington State counters that with a defense that is giving up only 103 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  WSU is coming off a bye week, and that's a nice advantage here to prepare for the Ducks, who they are 1-1 against the last two years in games that were both decided by a TD.  Betting against teams who outscore opponents by 7 or more points per game who have allowed 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 27-3 ATS over the last 5 years.  We'll bet against the Ducks here, who fit that criteria.  Take Washington State.

7* Stanford/Washington ESPN Friday Night Lights on Washington -3

The Key: The Washington Huskies are ready to change the landscape of the Pac-12, which has gone through Stanford over the past few years.  And with one of the best home-field advantages in the country inside Husky Stadium for this Top 10 showdown, you can bet they are going to be feeding off of the energy.  But the bottom line is that the Huskies are actually the more talented team in this matchup.  They have the better defense, and certainly the more explosive offense as Stanford has been held back by its shaky QB play this season.  The Cardinal were lucky to beat UCLA last week on the road, but they won't be so fortunate this time around.  Take Washington.

7* Dolphins/Bengals AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +8

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting way too much respect from the books as 8-point favorites here over the Miami Dolphins.  I think this game will go right down to the wire, so this is a really nice price for the Dolphins.  We've already seen the Dolphins go on the road and nearly beat both the Seahawks (lost by 2) and Patriots (lost by 7).  They can certainly stay within a touchdown of these Bengals, who have not fared well in losses to the Steelers and Broncos the past two weeks.  The Dolphins are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.  Take Miami.

7* ATL/NO Monday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 53.5

The Key: The betting public is all over the OVER in this game because they see two teams with perceived great offenses and poor defenses.  There's some serious line value with the UNDER as a result.  The Falcons and Saints hate each other as they're division foes, and these division games are almost always more low-scoring than expected.  That has certainly been the case in this rivalry.  The Falcons and Saints have combined for 52 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 meetings with the UNDER going 5-1-1 in that stretch.  They have only averaged 44.2 combined points in those 7 games, which is 9.3 points less than this 53.5-point total.  The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 divisin games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 division road games.  The UNDER is 22-7-1 in Falcons last 30 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Saints last 8 division games.  Take the UNDER.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Tennessee Titans +1.5

The Key: The Tennessee Titans could be 2-0 right now.  They lost to the Vikings in Week 1 only after blowing a 10-0 lead and giving up two defensive touchdowns in the second half.  They came back with a solid win at Detroit last week.  The NFL is about defense, and the Titans clearly have the better one here.  Their defense has technically only allowed 23 points all season.  Meanwhile, the Raiders have given up 35 points and 517 total yards per game.  This is an early kick out East for the Raiders, which is a tough spot for a West Coast team.  Take Tennessee.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Baylor -7.5

The Key: Everyone is down on Baylor because they haven't played anyone.  But they've taken care of business like they're supposed to with all three of their wins coming by 27 points or more.  The fact that they're 0-3 ATS gives us some line value here.  Last year, Baylor beat Oklahoma State 45-35 on the road while racking up 700 yards of total offense and outgaining the Cowboys by 259 yards.  Now they get the Cowboys at home, where they are 17-3 in their last 20 Big 12 home games.  I'm not impressed with Oklahoma State with a loss to Central Michigan and a fortunate win against Pitt, both of which came at home.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Take Baylor.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -2.5

The Key: The Utah Utes are 8-1 at home dating back to last season.  Their stadium, Rice-Eccles, is one of the most underrated venues in all of college football.  The Ute faithful will be out in full force tonight in Salt Lake City with the USC Trojans coming to town.  The Trojans couldn't have looked worse to this point, and now they are starting a freshman QB in Sam Darnold.  Darnold will be up against a Utah team that had 10 sacks last week and boasts one of the best defenses in the nation.  Look for the Utes to play a clean game here offensively, while the Trojans and Darnold make mistakes that will be the difference in this game.  The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Take Utah.

7* Texans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +1

The Key: The injuries the Patriots are dealing with right now puts them at an extreme disadvantage.  I don't trust rookie Jacoby Brissett to be able to do much offensively as he has only 2.5 days to prepare for this game.  Plus, he'll be up against one of the best defenses in the NFL this week in the Texans.  I'll side with that defense and Brock Osweiler and company to come away with a win here.  Bill O'Brien will have his team focused because he knows what the Patriots are capable of with their backs against the wall, as he previously coached there.  Take Houston.

7* Eagles/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3

The Key: The Chicago Bears need a win to avoid starting 0-2.  They held their own against the Texans last week, but couldn't hold on to a 14-10 halftime lead as they lost 23-14.  Look for them to be hungry here at home on a big stage on Monday Night Football.  The Eagles are getting too much respect now after beating the Cleveland Browns 29-10 in their opener.  They looked good, but this will be a different challenge for rookie QB Carson Wentz in his first start in an NFL road game.  I don't expect him to handle it very well.  The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games in September.  Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Week 2 games.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take Chicago.

7* AFC North Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Key: This is one of the most heated rivalries in sports between the Steelers and Bengals.  I'll gladly side with the home team only laying a field goal.  The Steelers dominated the Redskins 38-16 on the road, while the Bengals squeaked by the Jets 23-22 and were very fortunate to win.  The Steelers clearly have plenty of depth to make up for the loss of some key players, while the Bengals do not.  The Bengals are without their best defensive player in Vontaze Burfict, and they are without their TD leader from a year ago in TE Tyler Eifert, who scored 13 touchdowns for them.  The Steelers won their final two meetings of the season with the Bengals last year, both on the road and one in the playoffs.  They have now won 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss coming 16-10 in a game where the Steelers outgained the Bengals 356-296 and should have won, but Ben Roethlisberger threw 3 interceptions and was playing injured.  The Steelers are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Alabama/Ole Miss SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -11

The Key: Alabama wants revenge from two straight losses to Ole Miss the past 2 seasons.  The Crimson Tide have been dominant in beating USC 52-6 and Western Kentucky 38-10, but they really want this game.  Ole Miss has been shaky with an 11-point loss to Florida State and only a 38-13 win over Wofford in which they allowed over 200 rushing yards.  Alabama gave away the game to Ole Miss last year by committing 5 turnovers.  Look for a more disciplined performance here.  Alabama is 4-0 in true road games against ranked teams since that loss to Ole Miss in 2014.  It has won these games by an average of 22 points per game.  Expect another blowout here.  Take Alabama.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State -9

The Key: Utah State has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies have gone 24-3 in their last 27 home games.  They are also 11-4 under Matt Wells coming off a loss.  That's key because they played USC and lost 7-45 last week on the road in a game that was closer than the final.  The Aggies were only outgained by 169 yards in that game.  Compare that to Arkansas State, which was outgained by 290 yards in a 10-31 home loss to Toledo and by 380 yards in a 14-51 road loss at Auburn, and it's easy to see Utah State is the better team.  The Aggies should roll here by double-digits.  Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent that closed out last season with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 38-12 ATS since 1992.  Take Utah State.

7* Jets/Bills AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1

The Key: Injuries to the Bills have them way less than full strength right now.  They had key rookies in DE Shaq Lawson and LB Reggie Ragland who are out and were expected to play significant roles this season.  They are also without LB Ik Enempkpali, starting LT Cordy Glenn and their best DT in Marcell Dareus.  Not to mention, Sammy Watkins is far from 100%.  I just believe the Jets are primed to win this game today not only because of all the injuries, but because they want revenge from losing 5 straight to the Bills last year, including a loss in Week 17 that kept them out of the playoffs.  Take New York.

7* Rams/49ers Monday Night *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -3

The Key: This will finally be the year the Los Angeles Rams make a playoff push.  They have been stockpiling talent for the last few years, and they now actually have some of the best young talent in the NFL.  Look for it to come to fruition in 2016, starting with Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, who will battle with the Cleveland Browns for worst team in the NFL honors.  The Rams' only potential weakness is at QB, but Case Keenum is a batter QB than Blaine Gabbert, and the 49ers have holes everywhere on both side of the ball due to poor management.  Only having to lay a field goal with the vastly superior team tonight is a nice discount.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFL Game of the Week on New York Jets +1

The Key: Home-field advantage has been huge between the Bengals and Jets.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last 8 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  The Jets have won 6 straight home meetings with the Bengals as well. They should not be underdogs Sunday.  Take New York.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on SMU +32.5

The Key: SMU is a team on the rise in the second year under Chad Morris.  They put up 27.8 points per game last year after only averaging 11.1 in 2014.  Morris has a great offensive mind and the Mustangs will have the firepower to stay within 32 points of Baylor today.  Just last year the Mustangs only trailed the Bears 21-28 at half before getting blown out in the second half.  The Mustangs gained 572 yards in a 34-21 win at North Texas last week, outgaining the Mean Green by 178 yards.  Bets on dogs of 31.5 or more points after outgaining their last opponent by 175 yards or more are 26-6 ATS since 1992.  Take SMU.

7* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Syracuse +15

The Key: I like the direction Dino Babers has the Syracuse Orange headed.  In his first game they beat Colgate 33-7 at home and got their offense going with 554 yards.  Babers inherited 16 returning starters and more talent than most coaches could expect in their 1st year with a new team.  The Carrier Dome is no joke.  Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Orange went 3-3 at home last year with a 10-point loss to LSU as 24-point dogs, a 3-point loss to Pitt as 9-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Clemson as 30-point dogs.  If they could hang with those 3 teams at home, they certainly can hang with Louisville.  Take Syracuse.

7* CAR/DEN NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver Broncos +3

The Key: The defending Super Bowl champ is 14-2 SU in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons.  The Super Bowl loser from the previous year is only 5-11 SU & 3-12-1 ATS over the past 16 seasons as well.  I feel that the price is right to back the Broncos as home underdogs here Thursday night.  Carolina is not 6 points better on a neutral field, which is what this line would indicate.  The Broncos didn't lose a whole lot from last year, and it's not like Peyton Manning did much for this team.  They still have the best defense in the NFL and a solid running game, along with 2 elite receivers on the outside.  I think they have enough to win tonight and will be inspired, just almost all of the previous year's Super Bowl winners have been.  Take Denver.

7* Ole Miss/FSU ESPN Monday *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -6

The Key: Florida State has 17 starters back this season and is a legit national title contender.  Ole Miss only has 10 starters back this year and is primed for a down year after winning 10 games last year with Hugh Freeze's best team yet.  But Freeze has lost a lot of talent to the NFL and this is probably a rebuilding year.  Look for Florida State to roll in their opener, especially with home-field advantage with this game being played in their home state of Florida.  Take Florida State.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Texas A&M -3

The Key: Kevin Sumlin has a loaded roster in 2016 with 13 starters back and the additions of Oklahoma transfers in QB Trevor Knight and RB Keith Ford.  The defense is one of the best in the SEC with 7 of the top 8 tacklers back from a unit that gave up 22.0 points per game last year.  The offense can only be improved with better QB play from Knight and his set of receivers that are as talented as anyone in the country.  UCLA has all kinds of questions surrounding the offense around QB Josh Rosen with only 4 starters back.  The Aggies have gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 September games and are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Kansas State/Stanford NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford -12

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are on another level than the Kansas State Wildcats.  The Cardinal are among the favorites to win the Pac-12 and to make the four-team playoff.  It's easy to see why considering they have Christian McCaffrey back and are dominant up front along the offensive and defensive lines.  I think that dominance up front will be the key in them making easy work of the Wildcats, who went just 7-6 last season and barely made a bowl game.  Kansas State lost to the two best teams it played last year badly with a 55-0 loss to Oklahoma and a 45-23 loss to Arkansas.  Stanford beat Iowa by 29 in the Rose Bowl, and a blowout can be expected here.  The Cardinal are 8-0 ATS as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 range over the last 3 years.  Take Stanford.

7* South Carolina/Vanderbilt SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Vanderbilt -4

The Key: Vanderbilt is in much better shape entering 2016 than South Carolina.  The Commodores have a 3rd-year head coach in Derek Mason, who brings back 15 starters this year.  He has 7 starters back on a defense that only gave up 21.0 points per game last year.  South Carolina is a rebuilding team under 1st-year head coach Will Muschamp.  The Gamecocks have the least amount of experience returning in the SEC and only 9 starters back.  This is a team that went 3-9 overall and 0-5 on the road last year.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* Cal/Hawaii NCAAF *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 64

The Key: Both Cal and Hawaii are going to be awful defensively this season.  Cal only brings back 4 starters on defense and loses each of its top 6 tacklers from last year.  Hawai'i gave up 35.6 points per game last season and has just 5 starters back on D while losing 7 of its top 9 tacklers.  But the Warriors should be better offensively with Nick Rolovich as their head coach.  He was the offensive coordinator at Nevada the past 4 seasons.  He has a 9 returning starters to work with on offense.  I know Cal loses Jared Goff, but they replace him with a good one in Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb, who ran the same system with the Red Raiders that Sonny Dykes runs.  Look for these 2 teams to put on a show in Australia offensively and to easily top this 64-point total.  Cal is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games vs. Mountain West opponents.  Take the OVER.

7* Broncos/Panthers Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6

The Key: The betting public and all of the money has been pouring in on the Carolina Panthers over the past two weeks.  This line opened at -3.5 at most books and has been driven up to +6 in some places.  There's no question that the Panthers are overvalued coming in as my numbers indicate that they should only be 3-point favorites on a neutral field over the Broncos.  That means we are getting 3 points of value here with the Broncos.  I'll gladly support Denver given it has the best defense in the NFL and one that will slow down this Carolina offense.  Oddsmakers are expecting a pretty low-scoring game here, too, and so am I, which favors getting 6 points with the dog in what is likely to be a close game from start to finish.  Denver is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on 2 or more weeks of rest.  Take Denver.

7* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL, period.  They should not be underdogs to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship in a game that I fully expect them to win outright.  For starters, the Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season, outscoring teams by a whopping 14.0 points per game.  They actually play better on the road because they use a silent count offensively.  The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in total offense and 5th in total defense.  They are 2nd in passing offense at 289 yards per game.  Their passing attack will be the difference in this one because Carolina does not defend the pass well.  The Panthers have a make-shift secondary now with all of the injuries they have suffered, and they have two of the worst safeties in the NFL.  Carson Palmer and company will take advantage of a Carolina defense that has allowed 310 passing yards per game in its last 3 contests.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  Take Arizona.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay +7

The Key: It's so tough to beat a team like the Packers twice in the same season.  That's what the Cardinals are tasked with doing in the NFC Divisional Round.  They just crushed the Packers 38-8 in Week 16, but I think that result has them laying too many points here in the rematch.  The Packers figured something out against the Redskins that worked, which was the hurry-up offense.  It led to a 35-7 run by the Packers to close out that game, and I think it's going to work against the Cardinals as well.  The Packers are healthier along the offensive line now than they were when they played the Cardinals three weeks ago.  Aaron Rodgers was under duress all game, but he won't be now with improved O-line play and the help of the hurry-up offense.  The Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, and they're only outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per game on average in those six contests.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.  Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Green Bay.

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson +7

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country and have been for most of the season.  Yet they are underdogs in both of their playoff games.  They made a statement with their 37-17 blowout of Oklahoma, and now they'll make another statement now that they've been listed as 7-point dogs to the Crimson Tide.  These players are fully aware that they are underdogs and used that as motivation against Oklahoma, and they'll do so again here.  Clemson is outgaining teams by 209.7 yards per game this season, which is the top mark in the country, and shows that it is the best team as well.  Alabama is outgaining teams by 167.1 yards per game, which is impressive, but still a far cry from Clemson.  Deshaun Watson is going to be the difference as he has rushed for 100-plus yards in three straight games coming in.  The Crimson Tide have not done well against dual-threat quarterbacks in the past, and they'll struggle to contain Watson here.  The Tigers have won each of their last four bowl games outright as underdogs, and they're 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Take Clemson.

7* Packers/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +1

The Key: The Washington Redskins won one of the worst divisions in football in the NFC East.  They played 14 teams that didn't make the playoffs and only 2 teams that did, and they were blown out by 28 points by Carolina and by 17 points by New England in those two contests.  The Packers played 7 playoff teams this season to compare, yet still managed to win 10 games.  Yes, they have lost their last 2 games coming in, but that is why they are showing good value here as underdogs to the Redskins.  They are the better team, and they will prove that on the field Sunday.  The Redskins have actually been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games and rank 23rd in yardage differential (-26.8 yards/game) on the season.  The Packers are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings with the Redskins, outscoring them by 15.0 points per game.  Take Green Bay.

7* Chiefs/Texans Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City -3

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs have won a franchise-record 10 consecutive games and are ready to end a 22-year streak without a playoff victory.  They have done so behind a defense that is giving up just 12.8 points per game during this winning streak.  They have also had a plus-16 turnover differential during it.  Considering they play the Texans, a team that has only beaten one playoff team all season, I like their chances of end this playoff drought.  When the Chiefs have gone under the total in two straight games coming in, they have gone 8-0 ATS and are winning these games by 16.4 points per game.  Take Kansas City.