Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Jets/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +17 

The Key: The New York Jets have won 4 of their last 5 games and should not be catching 17 points against the Baltimore Ravens.  This is a good matchup for the Jets, who lead the NFL in giving up just 3.0 YPC and only 78.8 RYPG.  The Ravens lead the league in rushing, so it is strength against strength.  And the Jets get a hobbled Lamar Jackson who is nursing a quad injury, so the Ravens won’t be as potent as they have been in the past.  The 49ers held them to 20 points and the Bills held them to 24 points while both teams held them to near season lows in yardage.  The Jets will have success defensively against them, and Sam Darnold is playing some of the best football of his career during this 4-1 stretch.  Take New York. 

7* Giants/Eagles NFC East *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 

The Key: Weather is expected to be a factor in Philadelphia tonight in this NFC East rivalry game with the New York Giants.  There is a good chance for rain and winds will be around 13 miles per hour.  The Giants will be more restricted offensively with Eli Manning returning to the lineup in place of Daniel Jones.  This Giants defense is playing better of late in giving up just 294 yards to the Jets, 335 yards to the Bears and 322 yards to the Packers in their last 3 games overall.  The Eagles still have an elite defense that has yielded 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games overall.  They yield just 18 PPG at home this year and score only 21.3 PPG.  The Giants managed just 19.2 PPG on the season.  Philadelphia is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 games after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Eagles last 9 games after allowing 6.5 YPP or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 YPG or more.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia.  Take the UNDER. 

7* 49ers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +2.5 

The Key: The 49ers are the better team in this matchup with the Saints and the numbers show it.  Wrong team favored here.  The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 127 YPG, while the Saints are only outgaining opponents by 38 YPG.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in total defense and 1st in the NFL against the pass.  They have a dominant defensive line that will give the Saints’ banged-up offensive line troubles.  The Saints are without 2 starters on the O-Line and could be without a 3rd.  That’s not what you want when you’re up against the best defensive line in the NFL.  The 49ers are 5-1 on the road this year with their only loss coming at Baltimore by 3 points.  That effort showed they could play with anyone.  I like that the 49ers stayed in Florida after the Ravens game so they won’t have all that travel in between games.  When teams meet at a location to get ready for a game the next week, they usually come out and play well.  The Saints are 0-6 ATS in home games off a division game over the last 3 years.  Bets on road dogs off a close road loss by 3 points or less in the final 4 weeks of the regular season are 23-5 ATS since 1983.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +9.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats and Memphis Tigers are in rare air here.  It’s only the 4th time in the playoff era that teams square off in the final week of the regular season and again in the conference championship game.  The underdogs in this situation have gone 3-0 ATS in the previous 3 tries.  And I expect that trend to continue here as Cincinnati keeps it close and covers this 9.5-point spread.  Cincinnati only lost 24-34 in their first meeting at Memphis last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Bearcats lost the turnover battle 3-1.  And now after playing a backup QB last week, the Bearcats get their starter back this week in Desmond Ridder.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Oregon/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon +7 

The Key: This number has been adjusted too much in Utah’s favor based on the fact that they need to win to get into the four-team playoff.  They haven’t been in very many of these National TV games this season, and it’s a lot of pressure on them.  There is zero pressure on Oregon because they will likely be going to the Rose Bowl win or lose.  I’ll side with the loose, free-rolling Ducks in this game tonight catching a touchdown.  Oregon is 44-14 ATS in its lsat 58 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  This is an elite Oregon defense and the best defense that Utah has faced yet.  It’s going to be an ugly, low-scoring game with some bad weather, which favors the underdog.  The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Oregon. 

7* Cowboys/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys are 1st in the NFL in offense and 8th in defense.  They sit at 6-6, but they are a sleeping giant because of their record.  They are way better than they’ve shown record-wise, and I think that comes to fruition tonight as the Cowboys blast the Bears.  This is a Bears team that has struggled to put away the Giants and the Lions the last two weeks.  And now they’ll meet their match in the Cowboys here tonight.  The Bears are 29th in offense and 7th in defense.  Their offense just cannot be trusted.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding 350-plus yard in their previous game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are the better team in this matchup with the Seahawks and should not be underdogs.  The Vikings have won 6 of their last 7 and 6 of their 8 wins this year have come by at least 10 points, so they haven’t been getting lucky in close games like the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 9-2 this year but 8 of those wins have come by one score.  They are 8-1 in one-score games this year, which is hard to keep up.  Mike Zimmer has 2 weeks to get ready for Russell Wilson as the Vikings are coming off their bye week.  Wilson has only averaged 161 passing yards per game in his 3 lifetime starts against Zimmer’s Vikings.    The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Their 3 home wins this year have come by 1, 1 and 6 points with that 6-point win coming in overtime over the Bucs.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Pats/Texans AFC *BAILOUT* on OVER 46 

The Key: The Patriots will finally get their offense going this week after three straight weeks against good defenses in the Ravens, Eagles and Cowboys.  Not to mention the Eagles and Cowboys games were played in terrible weather.  It will be perfect conditions in Houston tonight for a high-scoring affair.  The Patriots have a good chance of getting both Sanu and Dorsett back at receiver after both players missed last week.  And the Texans have one fo the best offenses in the NFL when Will Fuller is healthy, which he is.  They basically have two #1 WR’s who are tough to tame.  Houston is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games off 3 consecutive under.  The Texans are 30-15 OVER in their last 45 games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -9 

The Key: The FAU Owls would clinch Conference USA’s East division with a win Saturday over Southern Miss.  They will be hungry and will show up on Senior Day.  I question Southern Miss’ motivation after losing 10-28 at home to Western Kentucky last week.  Losing that game meant they don’t control their own destiny now.  They lost to LA Tech and LA Tech hosts UTSA as a 20.5-point favorite this week.  There’s almost zero chance for the Golden Eagles to win the West Division now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that loss.  Plus, the Golden Eagles lost QB Jack Abraham to a leg injury in that game against Western Kentucky and he’s highly questionable to return this week.  He means everything to their team.  FAU is 9-1 ATS against teams that complete 62% or more of their passes over the last 3 years.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Year on South Alabama +11 

The Key: Arkansas State has been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention.  And they have won a lot of close games here of late that has them getting too much respect from the books.  Their last 3 wins have come by 1, 5 and 7 points.  And I think this game against South Alabama goes down to the wire.  South Alabama only lost by 10 at home to LA-Lafayette 2 weeks ago, which is the best team in the Sun Belt alongside Appalachian State.  They only lost by 2 to Texas State and by 13 to Georgia State in their last 2 road games.  They are back home here where they have been very competitive with a 3-point loss to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs as well.  South Alabama upset Arkansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs 2 years ago.  The Jaguars will look at this game as their Super Bowl on Senior Day.  The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons will show up today against the New Orleans Saints.  They hate the Saints more than any other team in the NFL.  And they just beat New Orleans a few weeks back 26-9 on the road as 14-point dogs.  Now the Falcons are at home catching 7 points.  The Falcons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the Saints with a spread of +7.  They haven’t lost by more than 6 points to the Saints at home since 2007.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Western Michigan/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -8.5 

The Key: I like the situation for Western Michigan tonight.  The Broncos need a win to clinch a trip to the MAC title game.  They are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had 2 full weeks to get ready for Northern Illinois.  And they’re facing an NIU team that just suffered their 7th loss last Thursday in a 17-45 setback to Eastern Michigan at home.  They won’t be going to a bowl game now, and they won’t be very hungry tonight because of it.  NIU is 0-6 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 years.  The Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Ravens/Rams NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47 

The Key: I like the OVER quite a bit tonight.  The Ravens are scoring 34.1 PPG this season and can take care of most of this OVER on their own.  The Rams get both Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks back at receiver this week after both missed last week.  The Rams are scary offensively when they have Woods, Cooks, Kupp and Gurley all healthy at the same time.  Bets on the OVER on road teams with a total of 42.5 to 49 who are good teams that outscore opponents by 4 PPG or more when allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 72-31 over the last 10 years.  Take the OVER.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -10.5 

The Key: The Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now the schedule has eased up, and the Browns have taken advantage.  After beating a good Bills team 19-16 at home, the Browns crushed the Steelers 21-7 last Thursday.  Now the Browns have had extra time to get ready for the Dolphins and are primed for one of their best games of the season.  The Dolphins have injuries all over their defense, especially in the secondary.  The Browns should take advantage and have one of their best offensive outputs of the year.  Cleveland has Kareem Hunt playing now and forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Nick Chubb.  The Dolphins gave up 37 points to a bad Bills offense last week.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 3 years.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA +14 

The Key: UCLA is playing well in the 2nd half of the season once again this year.  The Bruins have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 3 double-digit wins over Stanford, ASU and Colorado.  They did lose badly to Utah on the road last week, but that was due to committing 5 turnovers and not cashing in any red zone trips, and they had a bunch of them.  They will be able to move the ball much more effectively and score points on this soft USC defense.  UCLA has played USC tough the last 2 years, upsetting the Trojans as 3-point home dogs last year and only losing by 5 as nearly identical 14.5-point dogs in 2017.  USC is 2-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  Take UCLA. 

7* Colts/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Key: The Colts will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football.  That’s why I trust them more than the Texans.  They have by far the better defense, and by far the better offensive line.  The Colts rushed for 264 yards in their 33-13 win over the Jaguars last week.  The Texans gave up 263 rushing yards in their 7-41 loss to the Ravens and managed just 232 total yards on offense.  Deshaun Watson was sacked 7 times as his offensive line continues to struggle.  And not having JJ Watt makes Houston’s defense one of the worst in the NFL.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, while the Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against winning teams.  The Colts are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Chiefs/Chargers MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 52 

The Key: The altitude in Mexico City will take its toll on both defenses in the second half of this game.  I look for both offenses to score at will after intermission.  The Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes back last week and he showed no signs of rust as the Chiefs racked up 530 total yards including 433 passing in their 32-35 loss to the Titans.  Clearly the offense was not the problem, but they still have a soft defense that yields 370 YPG.  The Chargers have gotten healthier on offense with the returns of Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon recently.  They are more potent now and put up 26 points on the Packers and 24 on the Raiders and probably should have scored more on Oakland but committed 3 turnovers.  Both meetings last year went OVER the total with 66 and 57 combined points in them.  The Chiefs and Chargers should have no problem combining for 52-plus in their first meeting of 2019.  The Chiefs are 6-0 OVER in road games after gaining 400 or more YPG in their last 3 games over the last 3 years.  The Chiefs are 8-1 OVER against good passing teams that average 7 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  The OVER is 9-1 in Chiefs last 10 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game.  Take the OVER. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on Miami Dolphins +7 

The Key: The Dolphins outgained the Bills 381 to 305 in their first meeting this season just a few weeks ago.  But the Dolphins lost that game 21-31 in a very misleading final.  The Dolphins covered the spread in that game and they are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Now the Dolphins are getting 7 points in the rematch at home and will be out for revenge.  The Bills are not as good as their record and have feasted on some bad teams this year.  I can’t remember the last time they were laying a touchdown on the road.  Nobody seems to want to buy into the Dolphins which is why they have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.  And they’re not buying into them this week either.  We’ll go contrarian and back the Dolphins.  The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Miami. 

7* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers won’t have a letdown off their biggest win perhaps in program history over Penn State.  There is a lot more on the line than a win over Penn State.  Minnesota is basically assured of a Big Ten West title if they beat Iowa this week.  And they have a chance to make the four-team playoff if they go undefeated.  So everyone that talks about how the Gophers are going to have a letdown is dead wrong.  PJ Fleck went on the playoff show on Tuesday and said they hadn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, which was Kirk Ferentz’s first season with the Hawkeyes.  That’s 20 years.  If that’s not enough motivation, I don’t know what is.  Of course, Minnesota has a better team this year than they’ve had in the last 20 years, so that stat is pretty irrelevant.  The Gophers were never 9-0 going into the Iowa game before.  I realize the Gophers struggled in non-conference play to put away teams, but no team in the country has improved as much as them in conference play.  Not only are the Gophers winning, they are dominating.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play winning by 23.2 PPG.  The Penn State game was the only one decided by less than 7 points, and they were up 24-10 in that game before the Nittany Lions expectedly made a little comeback.  The Gophers never trailed in that game so it wasn’t a fluke.  PJ Fleck is clearly one of the best head coaches in the country with leading Western Michigan to an unbeaten season until the narrow bowl loss to Wisconsin.  And now he’s taken Minnesota to 9-0.  He knows what buttons to push, and there’s plenty for him to push this week, including the underdog and disrespect cards.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Fresno State/SDSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -1 

The Key: The San Diego State Aztecs are 7-2 this season and 4-2 in conference play.  That 4-2 record has them in first place alone in the West Division.  They knew they could afford to lose to Nevada last week and that’s exactly what happened.  Now the Aztecs have zero margin for error, and they know they need to handle their business tonight at home against Fresno State.  This is a Fresno State team that is grossly overrated this season due to their ATS success the past 2 seasons.  But they had to replace nearly their entire team this year.  This inexperienced squad has gone 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS this year as a result.  The Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight in basically a pick ‘em game at SDSU.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 525 or more yards last game.  The Bulldogs have allowed 500-plus yards in 3 straight games now to Colorado State, Hawaii and Utah State.  The Aztecs will have one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against this soft Fresno defense.  And the Aztecs once again have one of the best defenses in the country.  They give up just 14.4 PPG and 277 YPG on the season.  Fresno allows 32.4 PPG this year.  The Aztecs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against a team with a losing record.  Take San Diego State. 

7* Steelers/Browns NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42 

The Key: The UNDER is 6-3 in all Steelers games this season.  The Steelers have a terrible offense and a great defense, which is why they have been an UNDER team.  The Browns have been terrible offensively as well scoring just 19 PPG on the year.  The Steelers are 12-1 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 road games, and 38-15 in their last 53 road games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Browns last 4 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 17-7-1 in Browns last 25 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bowling Green/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bowling Green +17.5 

The Key: Bowling Green is still alive for a bowl game and is certainly improved this year.  This is their last stand as 17.5-point dogs to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are coming off a 35-6 win over Akron and have had 10 days off since that game.  Miami Ohio is only on normal rest after playing and upsetting Ohio 24-21 on the road last Wednesday.  It’s definitely a letdown spot for the Redhawks off that huge win that puts them in the driver’s seat to win their division in the MAC.  Miami hasn’t beaten Bowling Green by more than 15 points in any of the last 9 meetings, which makes for a 9-0 angle backing the Falcons.  The Falcons won 37-29 as 17-point dogs their last trip to Miami in 2017.  Take Bowling Green. 

7* Western Michigan/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio +1 

The Key: Western Michigan has already clinched a bowl game at 6-4 on the season.  Ohio is 4-5 on the season and really needs a win here to get to a bowl.  Adding to the motivation for the Bobcats is that this is Senior Night and their final home game.  Their best player in QB Nathan Rourke is a senior, and he has meant so much to this program that you know these players want to get him one final home win.  Western Michigan is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year.  The Broncos should not be favored in this matchup.  The Broncos are 1-10 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 years.  Western Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  The Bobcats are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 against a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio. 

7* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6 

The Key: No analysis Saturday thru Monday.  On vacation. 

7* NFC South Game of the Year on Atlanta Falcons +14 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC Total of the Year on UNDER 64 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +1.5 

The Key: The Raiders are hitting on all cylinders offensively with the balanced attack of Derek Carr’s precision passing and Josh Jacobs’ tough-nosed running.  The Raiders have reached or exceeded 24 points in 5 straight games.  The Chargers have scored 20 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games overall.  Philip Rivers is showing his age, and the Chargers have been a one-dimensional passing team.  I like backing home teams on Thursday nights, especially if they played at home the week before since there is no travel, which is the case for the Raiders after beating the Lions 31-24 in Oakland on Sunday.  The Raiders know this is their last season in Oakland, and they are showing out for their home fans.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Oakland. 

7* Cowboys/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7 

The Key: The Giants want to avenge their season opening loss to the hated Cowboys on the road.  The Cowboys were 7-point home favorites in that game, and now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch.  That’s essentially a 6-point adjustment since the start of the season when you adjust for home-field advantage and I believe it’s too much.  The Giants have been a lot more competitive since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback.  They only have 2 losses by more than 6 points in Jones’ 6 starts this year and those came against the Vikings and Patriots.  And they had a bunch of injuries in those 2 games, but are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  The Giants will be able to stay within a touchdown of the Cowboys at home tonight and could pull off the upset.  After all, the Cowboys lost outright to the Jets as 7-point favorites in their last road game.  Take New York. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -4 

The Key: The Browns have played one of the toughest schedules (4th) in the NFL this season.  They have a great chance to make up some ground in the AFC North starting with a win Sunday at the lowly Denver Broncos.  It’s a Broncos team that is 2-6 on the season and will now be without Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future.  They are forced to start Brandon Allen at quarterback.  I can’t see that going very well for Allen, especially since the Broncos have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, while the Browns have a solid pass rush.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Miami/Florida State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -3 

The Key: Both Miami and Florida State are 4-4 this season and in the midst of disappointing years.  However, the biggest difference is that Florida State (32nd) has played the tougher schedule than Miami (63rd).  And Florida State looks like a much better team with Alex Hornibrook as their starter.  Hornibrook has been a lot better than James Blackman.  Hornibrook is completing 68.4% of his passes averaging 8.7 YPA and has 6 touchdowns against only one interception.  Miami 17-12 win over Central Michigan at home as 30.5-point favorites showed everything you need to know about this team.  They went on to get upset by VA Tech at home as 14-point favorites the next week.  They were lucky to beat both Virginia and Pitt as they were outgained in both of those contests.  And they were also upset by Georgia Tech as 18.5-point home favorites.  This team just isn’t very good, especially offensively as they are playing musical chairs at quarterback.  The Seminoles are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hurricanes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Take Florida State. 

7* Navy/UConn NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 54 

The Key: The Navy Midshipmen have one of the most explosive offenses they’ve ever had this season.  They are scoring 37.9 PPG this season and it’s a big reason why they are 6-1.  They should be able to name their score against a soft Connecticut defense that yields 37.7 PPG on the year.  The Huskies have showed some offensive punch this season scoring at least 21 points in 5 of their 8 games, including 56 against UMass last week.  I think they can get to 21 here as well to help out this OVER.  The OVER is 6-1 in Navy’s last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER. 

7* 49ers/Cardinals NFC Total of the Month on OVER 43 

The Key: The 49ers will cover the majority of this total on their own.  They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and will shred an Arizona defense that ranks 29th in giving up 27.9 PPG and 407 YPG.  The Cardinals at least have a decent offense under Kliff Kingsbury and will get some points themselves.  This has the makings of somewhere in the neighborhood of a 30-20 final.  Bets on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 off a home win by 10 points or more, undefeated on the season are 40-14 since 1983.  Take the OVER. 

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +15 

The Key: Ryan Fitzpatrick plays with a fire that is contagious.  He nearly led the Dolphins from 14 points down to beat the Redskins but just came up short on a 2-point conversion.  Then he nearly beat one of the best teams in the NFL on the road in the Bills last week, who were coming off their bye.  Fitzpatrick is ready for the big Monday Night Football stage now.  The Steelers aren’t good enough offensively to pull away from the Dolphins.  They are 28th in total offense.  I would argue the Dolphins are actually the better offensive team in this matchup with Fitzpatrick.  This line has gotten out of hand with Miami catching more than 2 touchdowns. The Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games off a bye week.  The Steelers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite of at least 10 points.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL Total of the Year on Packers/Chiefs OVER 47.5 

The Key: Oddsmakers have adjusted this total too much for Patrick Mahomes being out.  Andy Reid has 10 days to get Matt Moore ready to run this offense after the Chiefs last played on Thursday.  And I think the Chiefs will continue to be one of the best offensive teams in the NFL this week even with Moore at QB because the scheme is great and the weapons are some of the best in the NFL.  I also expect Aaron Rodgers to put up a ton of points and continue playing at an MVP level.  The Packers are putting up 30.6 PPG in their last 5 games overall.  Now they’ll be up against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in yielding 377.4 YPG.  And the Chiefs are likely to be without their 2 best pass rushers in Chris Jones and Frank Clark, as well as one of their top corners in Kendall Fuller.  The Packers are 26th in total defense at 381 YPG allowed.  They have recently allowed 563 yards to the Cowboys and 484 yards to the Raiders in 2 of their last 3 games coming in. The OVER is 19-7 in Packers last 26 road games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 against a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford PK 

The Key: Stanford is too prideful to pack it in.  The Cardinal are 3-4 this season but they’ve played the 3rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They are coming off a bad loss to UCLA, but that was with their 3rd-string QB, which is one of the worst QB’s I’ve ever seen.  Now the Cardinal should get back either starter KJ Costello or 2nd-stringer Davis Mills this week from injury.  Both have been effective, so as long as one of them starts as I’m expecting, we’ll be good to go.  Arizona lost 27-51 at home to Washington and 14-41 at USC in its last two games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week.  The Wildcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Cardinal are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings winning 4 of those games by 24 points or more.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games off 2 straight conference games.  Take Stanford. 

7* Redskins/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +17 

The Key: The Redskins have two former Vikings on their team that are arguably their two biggest leaders, and they want to win this game for them.  Case Keenum led the Vikings to a deep playoff run before the Vikings let him go the following season.  And Adrian Peterson had a great career with the Vikings.  You know both players want to beat their former team, and you know the Redskins will have their backs.  That’s why I don’t question their motivation after a tough 1-6 start to the season.  The Vikings are getting a lot of respect from the books now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.  They won’t have Adam Thielen for this game, and they shouldn’t be laying 17 points.  The Redskins haven’t lost by more than 8 points to the Vikings in any of their last 10 meetings.  Take this 10-0 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Washington. 

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +10 

The Key: Sam Darnold was one of the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch last year as he improved greatly throughout his rookie season.  And he played well against Buffalo in the opener in a 16-17 loss before going down with a case of Mono.  He finally returned last week following the Jets’ bye week and promptly led them to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys.  Darnold threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the win.  He finally got Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson involved, which are the team’s two best weapons.  And we know what Le’Veon Bell is capable of.  Darnold should open up the running game moving forward now that the Jets finally have a threat of the pass.  The Patriots are 6-0, but they have played the league’s 32nd-ranked schedule as they have only beaten one team that is .500 or better.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule this year with 4 of their 5 games against .500 or better teams.  I love the price we are getting with the Jets catching double-digits at home here against the Patriots in a rematch from a 14-30 road loss with Luke Falk as their quarterback.  Darnold moves the needle for this team and is worth probably close to 10 points against the spread over Falk.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a home win and revenging a same season loss are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York. 

7* NFC Game of the Year on New York Giants -3 

The Key: The New York Giants got extra time to prepare for the Cardinals after playing the Patriots last Thursday.  They were very short-handed in that game against the Patriots and battled hard for 4 quarters before eventually relenting.  Now the Giants get some key playmakers back this week in RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram, who are their two best players on offense.  And they just recently got Golden Tate back from suspension, so they have ample weapons this week now for Daniel Jones, who is proving he belongs in the NFL.  Arizona could easily be 0-6.  Their 2 wins this season came by a combined 4 points.  They have a terrible defense that gives up 28.5 PPG and 414 YPG, so the Giants should score at will on them.  The Cardinals have a decent offense but are only scoring 22.3 PPG this year.  I think the Giants win in a shootout and get more stops than Arizona does.  Having the extra time to prepare for the dual-threat in Kyler Murray is a big advantage for New York’s defense.  The Giants are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing a Thursday game.  The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on Georgia -24.5 

The Key: Poor Kentucky.  The Wildcats get to be the punching bag that Georgia takes out its frustration on after getting upset by South Carolina last week.  The Bulldogs gave away that game by committing 4 turnovers in what was a very fluky loss.  Now they take on a Kentucky team that has lost both of its road games in blowout fashion 13-28 at Mississippi State and 7-24 at South Carolina.  If they couldn’t hang with those 2 teams on the road, they have no chance of hanging with Georgia.  Kentucky is down to a 3rd-string QB who was a former receiver.  They can only run the football, making them one-dimensional.  That will be easy for Georgia to stop.  Georgia only allows 73 RYPG and 2.7 YPC this year.  Once Georgia gets up 28-plus, there will be no back door coming because Kentucky doesn’t have a passing game.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Georgia. 

7* Marshall/FAU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic -4.5 

The Key: Many bettors forgot about Florida Atlantic after they were blown out by 2 of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and UCF to open the season.  But they’ve gone 4-0 since with 4 double-digit victories.  I look for them to win this game by a touchdown or more at home against a Marshall team that has been very disappointing.  The Thundering Herd are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS this year.  Their 3 wins have come over VMI, Old Dominion and Ohio (by 2) all at home.  They lost to a bad Middle Tennessee team 13-24 on the road, were blown out at home by Cincinnati 14-52, and lost 7-14 at Boise State in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Marshall only had 172 total yards against Boise State and gave up 437 yards.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3.5 

The Key: Teams are starting to beat the Chiefs by controlling the ball and the time of possession.  They are doing so thanks to a banged up Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run.  The Chiefs have yielded 192, 180, 186 and 203 rushing yards in their last 4 games, respectively.  The Broncos have rushed for an average of 147 yards in winning each of their last 2 games over the Chargers and Titans.  Denver hasn’t lost by more than 2 points in any of its 3 home games this year.  This is clearly a game the Broncos can win outright.  The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games and have a big advantage here playing at home on a short week after playing at home against the Titans on Sunday.  They don’t have to travel at all.  The Chiefs won’t handle playing in the altitude on a short week here on the road very well, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.  Take Denver. 

7* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +17 

The Key: This game just means a lot more to South Alabama than Troy.  The Jaguars are looked at the little brother in this rivalry of Alabama schools.  But they’ve gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings with only one loss by more than 7 points.  They pulled two outright upsets 19-8 and 24-18 at Troy as 18 and 6-point dogs in their last two road trips in this series.  And their three losses came by 1, 7 and 21 points.  This is one of the worst Troy teams we’ve seen in years largely due to head coach Neal Brown leaving the program.  They are 2-3 with their only wins coming against Akron and Campbell.  South Alabama has kept some games close this season against some good teams, losing by 14 at Nebraska as 35-point dogs, by 13 at Louisiana-Monroe as 13-point dogs and by 3 to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs.  They are hungry for their first win against an FBS opponent, and they would love nothing more than for it to come against Troy.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.  The Trojans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3.5 

The Key: This line was 6.5 on the lookahead line last week.  What has changed since then?  Green Bay blew out Dallas 34-24, while Detroit had a bye week.  Now this line has moved all the way down to 3.5.  The price is now right to pull the trigger on the Packers at home here.  No team in the NFL has a bigger home-field advantage than the Packers as their home field is probably worth 4 points.  And I have the Packers favored over the Lions on a neutral field, so I have no choice but to lay this short number with them.  I think the Lions are grossly overrated this year.  They are giving up 406 YPG on defense, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to name his score offensively.  The Packers have been great against the pass but poor against the run this year, but the Lions can’t exploit that as they average just 3.9 YPC this season.  The Packers are 25-3 SU & 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 home meetings with the Lions and winning by 10 PPG on average.  Take Green Bay. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone 2-2 with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and he has kept them in every game.  Minshew has thrown 9 touchdowns against only one interception this year and is completing 67% of his attempts.  He has led a suddenly potent Jaguars offense to an average of 481 YPG the last 2 weeks.  New Orleans has struggled offensively in its 2 road games this season.  The Saints are only averaging 255 YPG on the highway this year.  Teddy Bridgewater has been good at home, but not so good on the road.  This will be a tough environment for him up against a good Jaguars defense.  And life could be even more difficult if the Saints are without Alvin Kamara, who is listed as questionable after missing practice on Friday.  Bets on favorites in a game involving two mediocre defensive teams that give up 23-27 PPG, after 2 straight games where 50 or more total points were scored are 35-11 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Jacksonville. 

7* Conference USA Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -10.5 

The Key: The FAU Owls were quickly forgotten about after opening 0-2 with losses to Ohio State and UCF.  But those are 2 of the best teams in the country, and they actually played Ohio State as tough as anyone has in a 21-45 road loss.  They’ve since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS with blowout wins at Ball State 41-31, at home over Wagner 42-7 and at Charlotte 45-27.  Now they will beat a bad Middle Tennessee team by double-digits tonight.  All three of MTSU’s losses have come by 19 points or more.  Their only wins were at home against Tennessee State and Marshall.  They only outgained Tennessee State by 138 yards as 26-point favorites and were outgained by 177 yards by Marshall in a misleading final.  FAU is refreshed and refocused as it will be returning from its bye week and ready to go this week.  The Owls want to avenge a 24-25 road loss at MTSU last year.  MTSU is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Colorado/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado +21.5 

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are laying too many points tonight.  They haven’t been able to put teams away by big margins.  They only beat Montana by 35 as 39.5-point favorites, Stanford by 15 and Cal by 10 in their last 3 games coming in.  Colorado is good enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of Oregon.  The Buffaloes are 3-2 this season with their 2 losses coming by 7 and 5 points.  They beat Nebraska and Arizona State, so they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far.  The Buffaloes have the offense to keep up with the Ducks.  They are scoring 34.6 PPG overall and 43.0 PPG on the road.  They have a veteran QB in Steven Montez who won’t be fazed by playing in Eugene.  Montez is completing 67% of his passes for 1,463 yards with 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions while averaging 8.3 YPA.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last 3 years.  Take Colorado. 

7* Giants/Patriots NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -16.5 

The Key: The New England Patriots are 5-0 this season.  They are outscoring their opponents by 24.2 PPG on the year so laying 16.5 points isn’t too much with them.  They have the No. 1 scoring (6.8 PPG) and total (238 YPG) defense in the NFL this year.  The Giants’ offense will be short-handed this week as they will for sure be without Barkley, Gallman and Shepard, and they could be without Engram as well.  Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks and he’ll be bringing the heat all game on Daniel Jones.  Tom Brady and this New England offense are primed for a big game against the Giants No. 30 defense (409 YPG) Thursday night.  The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.  Take New England. 

7* App State/Lafayette Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisiana-Lafayette -1 

The Key: This is a rematch from the Sun Belt title game last year.  Lafayette lost by 10 at Appalachian State in the regular season and by 11 in the championship game, which was also at App State.  Now the Rajin’ Cajuns are playing with double revenge and finally get the Mountaineers at home this year.  That will make all the difference.  We are going to get a big effort from the Rajin’ Cajuns, who are clearly the better team this year.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Mississippi State by 10.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are outgaining teams by 195 YPG on the season.  Appalachian State is 4-0, but they are only outgaining teams by 9 YPG on the year.  And this despite playing the 143rd-ranked schedule in the nation.  This will easily be the Mountaineers’ toughest test yet.  Lafayette is 5-0 ATS in all games this year and will improve to 6-0 with a win and cover Wednesday.  Take LA-Lafayette. 

7* Browns/49ers Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3.5 

The Key: The numbers show that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league this year.  They ranked Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense, and they are the only team in the NFL to accomplish that feat to this point.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 YPG on the year.  Now they come off a bye week and will be ultra prepared to face the Browns.  And their home fans will be excited to see them as they have played 2 of their first 3 games on the road.  Things are looking up for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco now that his team has finally remained relatively healthy.  The Browns are off a big division win over rival Baltimore last week.  I think now oddsmakers are giving them too much respect for that upset victory.  The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  Take San Francisco. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers catching points at home is a nice price to pull the trigger on them.  Let alone the are catching more than a field goal.  They have never been a home underdog of +3.5 or more to the Ravens in this rivalry.  And this is a rivalry that is often decided by a field goal or less, having happened 13 of the last 25 times these teams have squared off.  The Ravens have been atrocious defensively this year.  They are yielding 396 YPG and 7.0 YPP, which ranks last in the NFL.  Mason Rudolph finally got on track last week by leading the Steelers to 27 points in a blowout win over the Bengals.  He could look even better this week against this soft Ravens defense.  There’s no question the Steelers have the better defense, and I always like taking home underdogs when they have the better D.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* ACC Game of the Year on Georgia Tech +11 

The Key: This is the ultimate flat spot for the UNC Tar Heels.  They came up just a 2-point conversion short of upsetting Clemson last week.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat and face a Georgia Tech team that is 1-3 on the season.  They won’t be interested at all in this game.  The Tar Heels are extra defeated right now after losing 3 straight games by 6 points or less after winning their first 2 games by 4 points or fewer.  So all 5 of their games have been decided by 6 points or less, and this one will go down to the wire as well.  Georgia Tech now had 4 games under its belt in the new schemes under Geoff Collins, who arrived from Temple.  And that loss to Temple last week was far from the 24-2 blowout it appeared.  The Yellow Jackets were only outgained by 18 yards by the Owls on the road but committed 3 costly turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home meetings.  Take Georgia Tech. 

7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati +4.5 

The Key: Cincinnati has played a schedule that is almost two times as hard as that of UCF to this point.  I like that they’ve been tested early and are 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to powerhouse Ohio State.  UCF is 4-1, but they lost on the road to Pittsburgh, a team that lost badly to Virginia and barely beat FCS Delaware by a field goal last week.  If Pittsburgh can knock them off, there’s no question Cincinnati can.  I love home underdogs in weeknight games because the atmosphere is electric, and it will be a Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati Friday night as well.  This Bearcats defense will be the best stop unit that UCF has seen yet this season.  They are giving up just 20.7 PPG and 297 YPG this year.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle PK 

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams just gave up 55 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs Sunday.  Their defense is gassed, and their offense may be even more tired after trying to come back from a 21-0 deficit.  Now they have to play on a short week here and travel to Seattle Thursday night.  The Seahawks will have plenty left in the tank after beating the Cardinals 27-10 on the road last week.  The Seahawks want to avenge 2 losses to the Rams by a combined 7 points last year.  I believe the Seahawks have the better team this year with all they added in the offseason compared to all the Rams lost.  Los Angeles has a terrible offensive line and can’t get a consistent run game going.  Jared Goff is under constant pressure, which helps explain why he had just 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through 4 games.  Take Seattle. 

7* Bengals/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -3 

The Key: The Bengals have a banged up defense that is soft as butter.  They have allowed an average of 494 YPG to a couple of mediocre offenses the last 2 weeks in the 49ers and Bills.  The Steelers will get their ground game going against the Bengals, who allow 169 RYPG and 4.9 YPC.  And the Steelers will slow down Andy Dalton and company, who clearly miss AJ Green at receiver.  They also have several offensive linemen banged up, so the Steelers should be able to get after Dalton.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Cowboys/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +3 

The Key: The Cowboys should not be favored on the road over the Saints in the dome Sunday night.  The Cowboys have taken advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL with games against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, who are a combined 1-8.  The Saints have played one of the toughest schedule against the Texans, Rams and Seahawks, who are a combined 7-2.  Two of those games were on the road.  The Saints are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better on the season.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Nevada -2 

The Key: Nevada is for sure one of my favorite plays of the entire 2019 season.  They host Hawaii Saturday night in Reno.  Game-time temps are expected to be in the 40’s as there’s a cold front moving through Nevada.  Hawaii has had upper 80’s temps all week, so they will be a little shell shocked for these 40-degree temps.  And this game will be played in altitude.  Nevada is 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Hawaii, and 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall with an average cover of 10 PPG.  Their dominance of the Rainbow Warriors should continue here Saturday.  Take Nevada. 

7* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2.5 

The Key: We are getting the Virginia Tech Hokies cheap tonight.  They aren’t off to the most impressive start in the world, but they had a bye week to get things corrected and come out and take care of business at home here against Duke.  Turnovers have been a problem with 9 of them in 3 games, so look for that to be the focal point leading up to this game.  Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15 meetings with Duke and I expect that series domination to continue tonight.  The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Eagles/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +4.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles need this win more.  They are 1-2 and have failed to cover the spread in all 3 games despite not once losing by more than 4 points.  The Packers are not only 3-0 straight up but also 3-0 against the spread.  I think oddsmakers are giving them too much respect tonight.  The Eagles get some key players back from injury, while the Packers have lost some key players to injury since Sunday. Bets against favorites who are off a home win in the first month of the season are 78-39 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Bears/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5 

The Key: The Bears are head and shoulders the better team in this matchup with the Washington Redskins Monday Night.  They should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this game.  The Bears haven’t gotten their offense going yet, but they will here against a Redskins defense that has yielded 31.5 PPG and 455 YPG this season.  And the Bears still have an elite defense after leading the league in basically every major defensive category last year.  Chicago is giving up just 12 PPG and 292.5 YPG this year.  Not to mention, the Redskins are giving up 6.8 YPP, while the Bears are yielding just 4.6 YPP.  The Bears will shutdown this suspect Washington offense, and Mitchell Trubisky will finally make some plays for the Bears and lead them to a big road win to get to 2-1 on the season while dropping the Redskins to 0-3 in the process.  Take Chicago. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on New York Jets +23 

The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL.  This week there are 2 of those teams.  Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Jets are going to stay within the number here against the Patriots.  The Patriots are the definition of overvalued right now after covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first 2 games against the Steelers and Dolphins.  This is a division game against the Jets, so there is familiarity.  That favors the Jets to keep this game closer than expected.  And I like what I saw from Luke Falk on Monday Night Football against the Browns.  Falk was 20 of 25 passing for 198 yards in relief of an injured Trevor Siemian.  Now that he’s preparing to be the starter all week he should be comfortable.  Le’Veon Bell showed he’s still a workhorse with 68 rushing yards and 10 receptions for 61 yards in the loss.  Bets against favorites who are off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take New York. 

7* Cal/Ole Miss ESPNU *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -2.5 

The Key: Ole Miss wants revenge from a 16-27 upset loss at Cal 2 years ago.  Now they get Cal at home this time around in an early start game that will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for the Golden Bears.  I think Cal players will still feel sleepy by the time this game starts, and they won’t be ready for the men among boys on the other sideline.  I’ll almost always side with SEC over Pac-12, especially when it’s two middle of the road teams here like Cal and Ole Miss.  The Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country defensively this season, holding Memphis to just 15 points on the road in the opener.  And the Rebels are clearly the better team offensively.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Utah/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Utes are a legit Pac-12 title contender this season.  This is a huge game for them to go on the road and handle their business against USC.  These teams already have a common opponent in BYU.  Utah won at BYU 30-12, while USC lost at BYU 27-30.  Clay Helton just has not been able to deliver in this underdog role.  Helton is 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS as an underdog at USC with 11 losses by double-digits.  The 12 losses have come by an average of 18.8 PPG.  Take Utah. 

7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +2 

The Key: Gardner Minshew has been playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL thus far.  He has completed 77.6% of his passes and is averaging 8.4 YPA this season.  The Jaguars finally get a break on the schedule here with the Titans coming to town after facing the Chiefs at home and Texans on the road.  This is a game they must win to stay in the playoff hunt as they cannot afford to fall to 0-3.  Take Jacksonville. 

7* Browns/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 

The Key: The Jets are going to try to shorten this game by giving the ball to Le’Veon Bell as much as possible.  They brought him in to be their workhorse, and now with Sam Darnold out, they will ride him.  Trevor Siemian will be making short throws and just trying not to turn the ball over.  They will have a conservative game plan, just as they did last week in their 16-17 home loss to the Bills that saw only 33 combined points.  The Jets also have a nice advantage defensively as defensive coordinator Greg Williams held the same position with the Browns last year and knows Freddie Kitchens’ offense.  The Browns have a terrible offensive line, and the Jets should be able to exploit it by bringing pressure all game long.  All of these factors favor a low scoring game.  Not to mention UNDERS are 12-3 this week as offenses just aren’t clicking this early in the season.  Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Bets on the UNDER on any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 30-9 over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Browns last 10 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Eagles/Falcons NFC *BAILOUT* on Atlanta +2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons did themselves in last week by committing 3 turnovers against the Vikings.  They just couldn’t get out of their own way.  The final stats outside the turnovers were actually in their favor.  They had 345 total yards and held the Vikings to just 269 total yards.  Now back home, look for the Falcons to play with a sense of urgency to avoid falling to 0-2.  They will be much sharper, and you’ll see their offense live up to their potential, which is massive with all the weapons they have.  The Eagles gave up 27 points and 398 total yards to a bad Redskins offense last week.  Matt Ryan is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in home openers since coming into the league.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Iowa/Iowa State Rivalry Game of the Year on Iowa State +1.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones had a bye week to get ready for Iowa.  It’s exactly what they needed as they were humbled in needing OT to beat UNI, so it should have been a productive two weeks of practice.  I think this line is an overreaction to that UNI win.  Iowa State outgained Northern Iowa by 201 yards as that was a misleading final.  Iowa has played Miami Ohio and Rutgers, two terrible teams and is getting too much credit for blowing out both.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home dog.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Washington State/Houston NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Houston +9.5 

The Key: No team has played an easier schedule than Washington State.  The Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their blowout wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  This team lost a lot of talent from last year and now they step up in class here against Houston.  This is a Houston team that is battle tested with their 31-49 loss to Oklahoma in the opener.  They’ll be ready for Washington State, and this is basically a home game for them played at the Texans’ stadium in Houston.  D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will be ready to match Mike Leach and company score for score.  Take Houston. 

7* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -6.5

The Key: Jameis Winston has now lost 9 straight road starts as the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Winston was awful in his first start under Bruce Arians, who was supposed to be his savior.  He threw 3 interceptions and 2 of them were returned for touchdowns in their 17-31 home loss to the 49ers.  Cam Newton has been great at home as they had won 10 straight home games with him under center before getting injured last year with his shoulder.  He is back healthy this year and coming off a decent start against the Rams in a tough 27-30 loss.  I trust Newton and the Panthers to bounce back at home tonight.  The Panthers beat the Bucs 42-28 at home last year.  They outgained the Bucs by 106 yards in that game and outgained them by 129 yards in a fluky losing effort in Tampa Bay last year.  Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

7* Broncos/Raiders ESPN *BAILOUT* on Oakland +2.5 

The Key: This line indicates that the Broncos would be roughly 5.5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I’m not buying it, and I think these are two evenly matched teams this year.  The Broncos have the better defense, but the Raiders clearly have the better offense, and it’s not really even close.  Oakland should have beaten Denver in each of the last 3 meetings.  They won at home 21-14 in 2017 and 27-14 in 2018, including an upset win as a home dog last year.  And they only lost 19-20 in Denver as 5.5-point underdogs last year.  They have had the Broncos’ number.  Now the Raiders should be much improved in Year 2 under Gruden, while the Broncos are breaking in a new head coach in Vic Fangio.  The Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 division games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

7* Steelers/Patriots NBC *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh +6 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have played the Patriots tough in their 2 meetings over the last 2 seasons.  They only lost 24-27 in fluky fashion in 2017.  They came back with a 17-10 home win over the Patriots last year.  I think this game is likely to be decided by a field goal, so the price is right to pull the trigger on the Steelers.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is as good as it has been in years.  The Patriots always seem to start slow out of the gate.  They won’t be a juggernaut offensively early as they try and figure out how to make due without Rob Gronkowski.  Mike Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as a dog as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texas State +7.5 

The Key: The Texas State Bobcats should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They brought back 19 starters and nabbed an offensive-minded head coach in Jake Spavital and he brought some great coordinators with him.  It didn’t show against Texas A&M in the opener as they lost 7-41 as 34-point dogs, but that’s expected against a team the caliber of the Aggies.  Wyoming is coming off a misleading 37-31 upset of Missouri, setting the Cowboys up for a big letdown spot.  They gave up 537 yards and were outgained by 148 yards in that game.  Missouri twice turned it over going into the end zone, and also gave up another turnover for a score.  Their 3 turnovers were essentially a 24-point swing.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters and the QB returning in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas State. 

7* Packers/Bears NBC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 46.5 

The Key: The Bears will once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They didn’t lose much from a unit that gave up just 17.6 PPG last year.  The Packers should be improved defensively this season as they finally spent some money in free agency and loaded up in the early rounds of the draft.  But the Packers could struggle early offensively as they have put in a new system under Matt LeFleur.  Aaron Rodgers didn’t play at all in the preseason and should be rusty.  The Bears were improved offensively last year, but they are still no juggernaut on that side of the ball.  They play to their strengths, which is their defense.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Packers last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Fresno State/USC ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -13.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans come into the 2019 season flying under the radar for the first time in a long time.  That’s because they didn’t even make a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record.  But with the talent they recruit, the Trojans won’t be down for long.  They had won double-digit games in the previous two seasons under Clay Helton.  Fresno State has been a good story the last few years, but they lose a ton of talent from those teams.  They only have 9 starters back and are the 2nd-least experienced team in the country this year. USC comes in hungry to get their season off on solid footing and won’t be taking the Bulldogs lightly.  Take USC. 

7* Wisconsin/USF ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -10 

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a down year, which for them is 8-5.  They had won 10 or more games in 4 straight years prior.  And they should get back to being their dominant selves this year.  It starts with Week 1 against South Florida, which went 7-6 last year.  The Bulls won their first 7 games against weak competition, then lost their final 6 when they took a step up in class.  This is a step up in class for them as well.  Bets on road favorites of 10 to 21 points who were an excellent rushing team last season averaging 5.25 YPC or more are 26-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* UCLA/Cincinnati ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -2 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats went on the road and beat UCLA 26-17 last year as 14-point underdogs.  Now they get them at home in the rematch and it should be more of the same.  This is a Cincinnati team that won 11 games last year and has 14 starters back from that squad, including QB Desmond Ridder and RB Michael Warren, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 19 touchdowns last year.  The Bearcats went 6-0 at home last season and outscored opponents by 30.0 PPG.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Florida/Miami ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -7 

The Key: Dan Mullen turned Mississippi State into an SEC power, which is hard to do.  Then he took a 4-7 Florida team before arriving into a 10-3 team last year that beat Michigan 41-15 in the Peach Bowl.  Mullen is easily a Top 5 coach in the country, and he doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  Now the Gators have 13 returning starters this year with a loaded defense that has 8 starters back.  Having a proven QB in Feleipe Franks and all of his top receivers back from last year plus their leading rusher will help ease the pain of only having 5 returning starters on offense.  I just don’t trust Miami.  They went 7-6 last year and are going through a coaching change with Manny Diaz taking over after accepting the Temple job.  They only have 12 returning starters and will be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback.  Their offense was poor last year and will be again to start, especially facing a defense that caliber of Florida.  Remember last year Miami was dominated 17-33 by LSU in the opener, and they will get a similar fate here against another SEC power in the Gators.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  Take Florida. 

7* Rams/Patriots Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER*  on New England -2.5 

The Key: Experience, experience, experience.  The Patriots will be playing in their 9th Super Bowl in the past 19 seasons.  It’s a remarkable feat and will never be matched.  Playing in their 3rd straight Super Bowl, and extra hungry off the loss to the Eagles last year, the Patriots will beat the Rams thanks to their experience in these big games.  I trust Tom Brady over Jared Goff in a big way.  Brady threw for 505 yards and the Patriots didn’t punt once again the Eagles last year, and Brady has been dynamite in the playoffs once again this season.  The Rams have been relying heavily on their running game to take the pressure off of Goff, but you can bet Belichick won’t allow the Rams to run all over them.  They stopped the Chiefs and the Chargers on the ground, and that will be the game plan coming in again.  Goff won’t be able to make enough plays to beat them.  Take New England.

7* Patriots/Chiefs AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -3 

The Key: Home teams have won 10 straight AFC/NFL Championship Games over the past 5 seasons.  The Patriots went just 3-5 on the road this year and only scored 21.6 PPG.  They will be hard-pressed to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company, who are scoring 35.1 PPG this year.  Tom Brady hasn’t been as efficient since losing Josh Gordon to suspension.  He averages 7.6/attempt with Gordon and 5.6/attempt without hime this year.  This play falls into a system that has been great in the playoffs.  Teams who scored 40 or more points in a win in their last game have gone 5-25-1 ATS in their next 31 playoff games, including 2-11-1 ATS in championship games.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Chargers/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +4 

The Key: You could make the argument that the Chargers are the best team in the NFL.  They are the only team that ranks in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  And they won 12 games this season, the same amount the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs did.  And they beat the Chiefs down the stretch.  In fact, the Chargers are 9-1 SU in their 10 road games this season playing their best football away from home.  They have beaten the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks on the road this year.  The Patriots went just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final 4 games despite every game being huge for them in trying to earn a first-round bye.  They are beatable, especially since losing their top big play threat in Josh Gordon recently.  Rob Gronkowski only has 3 TD receptions this season and is really becoming a non-factor as injuries have clearly caught up with him.  The Patriots are beatable, and this is the best chance the Chargers have had to beat them in years. I expect them to capitalize.  Dogs are 14-1 ATS in the last 15 playoff games.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Colts/Chiefs UNDER 57

The Key: It's expected to snow all day in Kansas City and the winds will be in the double-digit range.  I'm shocked this total hasn't dropped yet, but it will on game day.  Don't wait to get this bet in.  The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for, and the Chiefs should put forth one of their best defensive performances of the season with two weeks to prepare.  Once you see the conditions on the field Saturday you're going to feel very good about having the UNDER in your pocket.  Take the UNDER.

7* Alabama/Clemson *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 58 

The Key: Forecasts are calling for rain in Santa Clara and it’s going to be colder than normal.  It will likely be a sloppy field, which will benefit the UNDER.  Also benefitting the UNDER is that these are two of the best defenses in the country.  The Tigers allow just 12.9 PPG and 275 YPG while the Crimson Tide yield only 16.2 PPG and 308 YPG.  Neither of these offenses have faced a defense as good as the one they will be facing tonight.  Clemson is 9-0 UNDER against good teams who outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Chargers/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3 

The Key: The Chargers get the chance to face Lamar Jackson for a 2nd time, the only team in the NFL that gets to claim that.  And facing a strange offense like the one the Ravens run for a 2nd time is a huge advantage.  They actually held Jackson in check in the first meeting, but the offense was the problem as they were held to just 10 points.  Of course, an INT in the end zone and a fumble by Antonio Gates when the Chargers were driving to take the lead didn’t help matters.  They will make the adjustments, and continue their road success this season.  The Chargers are 8-1 on the road this year with wins at Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.  They have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  That trend continues Sunday.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas ML -130 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys have certainly enjoyed a nice home-field advantage this season.  They are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home this year with their defense only allowing 18.5 PPG and 290.9 YPG.  They are outgaining teams by 73 yards per game at home this year.  The Seahawks only have 3 road wins this year, and two of them came on last second field goals at Arizona and at Carolina.  They also won at Detroit, but they were coming off a bye that week.  Obviously the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions weren’t very good this season, so they really don’t have a good road win this year.  Dallas is good at stopping the run while Seattle is not good at stopping the run.  Whoever wins the line is scrimmage will win this game.  I expect that to be the Cowboys.  Take Dallas. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Texas +12 

The Key: Tom Herman as an underdog is a scary proposition for opponents.  Herman is 12-2 ATS as a dog in his head coaching career and even better than that dating back to his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State with something like a 22-2 ATS record as a dog.  Georgia doesn’t want to be here.  The Bulldogs wanted to make the four-team playoff and are very disappointed they didn’t.  They were the final team left out.  Those teams never seem to show up when they were the final team left out, or right on the borderline of making the playoffs.  Texas will be able to hang around because of it.  Take Texas. 

7* Northwestern/Utah NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +7 

The Key: Northwestern is relishing this opportunity to be playing in the Holiday Bowl.  I think Utah is the more disappointed team after scoring just 3 points in a loss to Washington that cost them a trip to the Rose Bowl.  Pat Fitzgerald has certainly gotten his team to play well in the underdog role.  Underdogs went 11-1-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  Northwestern pulled off 5 outright upsets in 7 tries as an underdogs this season.  And the two losses were to Michigan (by 3) and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Colts/Titans AFC South Game of the Year on Indianapolis -4.5 

The Key: Andrew Luck is 10-0 lifetime against the Tennessee Titans.  Few of these games have even been close, including the 38-10 beat down the Colts laid on the Titans earlier this season.  And I give the Titans almost zero chance of even being competitive in this game Sunday without Marcus Mariota.  The Colts have gone 8-1 in their last 9 games overall and are on a mission to make the playoffs.  They won’t be denied by the Titans tonight.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Alabama/Oklahoma *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 79 

The Key: Alabama will utilize its running game to keep the Oklahoma offense off the field in this game.  And the Alabama defense is way better than anything Oklahoma has seen this season.  This should be much lower scoring than the oddsmakers anticipate.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Broncos/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3 

The Key: There is a good chance this will be the final game at the Oakland Coliseum ever.  The Raiders are looking for a place to play next year before moving to Vegas the following season.  From quotes I’ve ready from players and coaches alike, the Raiders will be up for this game.  And they’ve played well at home of late against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They upset the Steelers are double-digit underdogs and also only lost by 7 to the Chiefs as 14-plus point dogs.  The Broncos have lost 2 in a row and have officially been eliminated.  They have injuries on offense and defense that have really hampered them the last two weeks and they aren’t any healthier now.  The Raiders only lost 19-20 at Denver in their first meeting this season and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  Denver is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games off 2 or more straight ATS losses.  Take Oakland. 

7* SEA/KC Sunday Night Game of the Year on Seattle +2.5 

The Key: The Seahawks are tremendous as home underdogs.  And after losing last week, they need a win to clinch a playoff spot here.  And with the Chargers losing to the Ravens yesterday, the Chiefs can now relax knowing that they have a two-game lead on the Chargers for the division lead.  They can clinch at home against Oakland next week if need be.  The Seahawks will be the hungrier team given the situation.  And the Chiefs just aren’t playing well since losing three of their top playmakers on offense in Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware and Sammy Watkins.  They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, too, especially against the run.  They give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, and the Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing at 154.9 yards per game, so this is a bad matchup for Kansas City’s defense.  The Seahawks are 11-1-1 ATS since January of 2011 as a home underdog with 9 outright wins.  Seattle is 11-0 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a SU loss as a favorite.  Russell Wilson is 5-1 ATS in his career as a home dog.  Take Seattle. 

7* Ravens/Chargers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -3.5 

The Key: The Chargers have a huge rest advantage here after playing last Thursday, while the Ravens played on Sunday and will be on a short week with this game being played on Saturday.  The Ravens have to travel clearly across country as well.  And the Chargers got some great news this week as that extra rest has allowed their two best playmakers on offense to get healthy and return to the lineup this week.  Leading receiver Keenan Allen and leading rusher Melvin Gordon are both back.  The Ravens won’t have enough firepower to match the Chargers offense.  The Ravens are too predictable as they have run for a lot of yards lately, but not passed for many.  And it’s worth noting that the 5 defenses Lamar Jackson has faced since taking over as starter all rank 24th or worse in total defense.  So they have faced five bottom 10 defenses.  The Chargers have the 8th-best defense in the NFL, and it has been even better here down the stretch since Joey Bosa returned.  They held the high-powered Chiefs to just 294 total yards last week.  And they have allowed 65 or fewer rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games coming in.  They will be able to stop the run and make life difficult on Jackson.  The Chargers are 34-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Ohio/San Diego State *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +3 

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Ohio getting too much respect for their finish to the season, while SDSU getting killed by oddsmakers for their 0-3 finish to the season.  The Aztecs weren’t motivated at all over their final 3 games and now will be motivated to finish off their season with a win.  The Bobcats were motivated down the stretch trying to win the MAC.  The MAC is just 6-24 SU in bowl games over the last 6 years.  And after an 0-2 start to this bowl season, the MAC is now 1-12 SU over the last 3 seasons in bowl games.  The Aztecs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs, which includes outright upsets over Boise State and Arizona State this season.  Take San Diego State. 

7* Saints/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina +7 

The Key: Despite losing 5 straight, the Panthers are still very much alive for the playoffs.  They need to win out, and it starts with this game against the Saints at home Monday Night.  They only trail the Vikings by a game in the wild card and hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles.  The Panthers are 5-1 at home this year and scoring 30.8 PPG on their home turf.  They have what it takes to hang with the Saints, whose offense has sputtered in recent weeks with just 262 YPG in their last 3 games.  And the Panthers will certainly be revenge-minded after losing all 3 meetings with the Saints last year, including playoffs.  Ron Rivera is 22-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

7* Patriots/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +3 

The Key: The Steelers need to right the ship quickly off 3 straight upset losses they had no business losing.  They should have beaten the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders, but late miscues cost them in all 3 games.  They are back home here today and ready to exorcize their demons against the Patriots.  The Pats are only 3-4 on the road this season, so they are beatable.  The Steelers are outscoring their opponents by 8.3 PPG at home this year behind an offense that puts up 34.5 PPG at home.  Mike Tomlin is 11-3 ATS off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* December Bowl Total of the Year on ASU/Fresno State UNDER 53.5 

The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Las Vegas Bowl Saturday.  Fresno State has been elite defensively, giving up only 13.7 PPG on the season.  Arizona State allows 25.1 PPG.  And these are two mediocre offenses.  But my favorite thing about these offenses is that they don’t turn the football overall.  Fresno State has committed just 11 turnovers in 13 games, while ASU has committed only 8 turnovers in 12 games.  Turnovers usually create easy points, and since both teams won’t be turning it over, I think that greatly benefits the UNDER.  ASU’s offense suffered a big blow when it was announced leading receiver N’Keal Harry would skip the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft.  He may be the best receiver in the Pac-12, catching 73 balls for 1,088 yards and 9 touchdowns this season.  The UNDER is 22-8 in Bulldogs last 30 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games this season with a total of 49.5 to 56 points.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 55 

The Key: This will be the 2nd meeting between the Chargers and Chiefs this season.  Both of these defenses have gotten a whole lot better since they met way back in Week 1.  The Chargers are giving up just over 16 PPG in their last 9 games coming in.  The Chiefs have held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 23 points or fewer.  And I think we see a defensive battle in this rematch tonight.  The Chiefs are missing their top two running backs and receiver Sammy Watkins, and Tyreke Hill is banged up.  The Chargers are missing their top two running backs as well, two guys in Gordon and Ekeler who are huge safety valves for Philip Rivers out of the backfield.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Chargers last 11 December games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 against AFC West teams.  The UNDER is 48-21-1 in Chiefs last 70 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3.5 

The Key: I strongly believe the Vikings are the better team in this matchup and we’re getting 3.5 points with them.  This line should be closer to pick ‘em.  The Vikings have outgained 6 of their last 8 opponents and they are a legit team with a legit defense and a solid offense.  Sure, the Seahawks have on 3 in a row coming in, but they were outgained in 2 of those games by a combined 200 yards by the 49ers and Panthers.  The Seahawks have now been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more.  Mike Zimmer is 50-27 ATS as the coach of the Vikings.  Take Minnesota. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on San Francisco 49ers +3.5 

The Key: The Broncos are missing two key players this week that they had last week and during this run they’ve made.  Leading receiver Emmanuel Sanders is out with a torn Achilles suffered in practice earlier this week.  And top corner Chris Harris is out as well.  The loss of Sanders hurts because the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas and were already thin at receiver.  The 49ers have outgained their opponents by a total of 174 yards on the season.  They are clearly better than a 2-10 team, and I think they get to taste victory here against the Broncos Sunday.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.  They are losing by 12.3 PPG on average to these teams.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Jaguars/Titans NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 37.5 

The Key: The Jaguars and Titans played in a 9-6 ugly defensive battle in their first meeting in Jacksonville that saw 15 combined points.  I think we see another ugly defensive battle in the rematch, especially with the Jaguars going with Cody Kessler again at quarterback.  His first start last week resulted in a 6-0 win over the Colts.  The Jaguars have a great defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 315.6 YPG allowed.  The Titans also have a great defense that ranks 9th in the NFL in total defense at 340.9 YPG allowed.  And both teams have been terrible on offense.  The Jaguars are 24th in total offense and the Titans are 28th.  The Jaguars are 30th in scoring offense at 16.9 PPG, while the Titans are 28th at 18.4 PPG.  I don’t think either team tops 20 points in this one.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Titans last 7 vs. AFC South teams.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. division opponents.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -6 

The Key: The Eagles are in true must-win mode here.  They can’t lose this game because they’d be 5-7 and two games back of the 7-5 Cowboys with a head-to-head loss to them already, so essentially three games back.  The Redskins could afford a loss and still recover.  The Eagles can’t.  And I like the momentum the Eagles have from coming from 19-3 down to beat the Giants last week, 25-22.  Now they should be able to win by a touchdown or more against a banged-up Redskins team playing with a backup QB.  The injuries have taken their toll on the Redskins.  They are 1-3 in their last 4 games overall and their lone win against the Bucs was a fluke.  The Bucs had 501 total yards but managed just 3 points.  Figure that one out.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a game where they committed non turnovers against an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin or worse last game are 25-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Vikings/Patriots NFL Total of the Week on OVER 48.5 

The Key: Two of the better offenses in the NFL go at it this afternoon in New England.  Both the Patriots and Vikings are loaded with weapons and great quarterback play.  And both defenses are down a notch from year’s past as well.  Minnesota is 14-2 OVER in its last 16 games off three straight division games.  New England is 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 road games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Vikings last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER.