Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Ball State/Georgia State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia State -5.5

7* Miami Ohio/North Texas NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 54

7* Missouri/Army NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 56

7* Wyoming/Kent State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -3.5

7* Vikings/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -5.5

7* Saints/Bucs SNF Game of the Year on New Orleans +11.5

7* Patriots/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis -2

7* Coastal Carolina/NIU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 63

7* Chiefs/Chargers TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

7* Rams/Cardinals MNF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 52

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Las Vegas Raiders +10.5

7* Patriots/Bills MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -2.5

7* NFL Total of the Year on Bucs/Falcons OVER 50

7* Houston/Cincinnati AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +10.5

7* Oregon/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNDER 58

7* Cowboys/Saints TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -5

7* Seahawks/Washington MNF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 47

The Key: The Seahawks are playing great defense in yielding 23 points or fewer in 5 straight games.  But they cannot get anything going offensively, scoring 20 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games.  They have scored a combined 13 points in 2 games since Russell Wilson returned.  Washington has put together 4 straight dominant defensive performances.  They gave up 24 points and 304 yards to the Packers, 17 points and 273 yards to the Broncos, 19 points and 273 yards to the Bucs and 21 points and 297 yards to the Panthers.  Their offense has been held to 13 points or fewer in 3 of their last 5 contests.  The UNDER is 12-2 in Seahawks last 14 NFC games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Seahawks last 9 games after yielding more than 250 passing yards in thier previous game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups.  Take the UNDER.

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Denver Broncos +3

The Key: No game report from Monday, November 22 through Sunday, November 28.  Home with family for Thanksgiving week.

7* NCAAF Rivalry Game of the Year on Florida State +3

The Key: No game report from Monday, November 22 through Sunday, November 28.  Home with family for Thanksgiving week.

7* NCAAF Situational Game of the Year on UTEP +13.5

The Key: No game report from Monday, November 22 through Sunday, November 28.  Home with family for Thanksgiving week.

7* Fresno State/San Jose State MWC *HEAVY HITTER* on OVER 51.5

The Key: No game report from Monday, November 22 through Sunday, November 28.  Home with family for Thanksgiving week.

7* Buffalo/Ball State MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 58.5

The Key: No game report from Monday, November 22 through Sunday, November 28.  Home with family for Thanksgiving week.

7* Giants/Bucs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on OVER 49.5

The Key: This looks like an OVER game to me.  The Bucs are missing 3 starters in the secondary and now Vita Vea up front on the defensive line.  The Giants will put forth one of their best offensive efforts of the season.  Washington scored 29 points on the Bucs last week after the Saints put up 36 points on them with Trevor Siemian the game prior.  The Giants are getting healthier on offense coming off their bye week.  The Bucs have one fo the best offenses in the NFL and will get their points against this New York defense as well.  The Giants will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Tampa Bay is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 games off 2 or more consecutive ATS losses.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 matchups.  Take the OVER.

7* NFL Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins -3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins just beat the Baltimore Ravens 22-10 in a dominant effort last Thursday.  They outgained the Ravens by 46 yards and had Lamar Jackson flustered the whole game.  The Dolphins have one of the best secondaries in the NFL and were able to play man to man coverage and blitz the entire time.  It came a week after holding the Texans to 9 points and forcing 4 turnovers with another blitz-happy scheme.  And now they will definitely be blitz-happy again against the Jets this week and trust in their secondary to stop the immobile Joe Flacco.  Flacco is their 4th string QB this week and will be getting the start to try and avoid any QB controversy surrounding rookie Zach Wilson moving forward.  Mike White and Josh Johnson are both better than Flacco.  The Jets are essentially packing it in.  Their defense has yielded 43.4 PPG in their last 4 games and is the worst defense in the league.  Tua looked great in the 2nd half against Baltimore in place of an injured Jacoby Brissett and should be good to go again this week.  The Dolphins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with the Jets, winning both matchups last year by 24 and 17 points.  Take Miami.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on UCLA -3

The Key: The UCLA Bruins want to avenge their 43-38 loss to USC last year in which they had the game won but somehow lost it in the final seconds.  This is a different USC team.  The Trojans are just ready for their season to be over at 4-5 this year.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games by 15 points or more, and their lone win was a 7-point victory over terrible Arizona.  The Bruins own bad teams, going 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record.  And the Trojans will be without starting QB Slovis and 1,000-yard receiver London.  Take UCLA.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona/Washington State OVER 52

The Key: Two teams not used to being on the prime time stage will square off tonight when the Arizona Wildcats visit the Washington State Cougars.  I think we see offensive fireworks between these two teams tonight.  Washington State has seen 4 of its last 5 games combined for 55 or more points.  Arizona combined for 67 points with Utah and 75 points with USC in 2 of its last 3 games.  There was a low-scoring game with Cal in between, but the Bears were missing almost everyone on offense due to COVID.  Washington State is 6-0 OVER in Weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 matchups with combined scores of 97, 95, 76, 87 and 96 points.  Take the OVER.

7* Patriots/Falcons TNF Game of the Year on Atlanta +7

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons just lost by 40 to the Dallas Cowboys.  The New England Patriots just beat the Browns by 38.  Now the price is right to back the Falcons Thursday night.  Atlanta was only a 4-point underdog in this game going into last week.  Now after those results, the Falcons are 7-point dogs.  This is the same Atlanta team that upset the Saints on the road the previous week.  They just came in fat and happy against the Cowboys, while the Cowboys were pissed off after getting upset by the Broncos the previous week.  It was a predictable result.  The Patriots cannot be going on the road and laying 7 points against almost anyone.  They just aren't that good this season, and it will show Thursday night.  Take Atlanta.

7* Central Michigan/Ball State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas have gone 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point.  They are still alive to win the MAC West due to this run.  They would need to win out and have Northern Illinois lose its final 2 games, which is very possible considering NIU is only a 1-point favorite at Buffalo tonight and has Western Michigan next week.  The Chippewas will show up tonight.  I question whether or not Ball State will show up.  The Cardinals were just eliminated from MAC West title contention after losing on a last-second field goal to NIU 29-30 last week.  The defending champs now have nothing to play for other than bowl eligibility, which they can accomplish next week at home against Buffalo.  I think they will suffer a hangover from that NIU loss last week and not show up this week.  The Chippewas are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as road favorites.  The Chippewas are 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 Wednesday games.  The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.  The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* MAC Total of the Month on Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan OVER 66

The Key: Two OVER teams square off tonight in Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan.  Western Michigan is 4-1 OVER in its last 5 games with combined scores of 65, 95, 72 and 95 points in the 4 OVERS.  Eastern Michigan is 3-1 OVER in its last 4 games overall with combined scores of 69, 79 and 101 points in the 3 OVERS.  Expect more of the same with a shootout between these two great offenses tonight and suspect defenses.  WMU has yielded 31 or more points in 5 straight games.  EMU has yielded 34 or more points in 3 of its last 4.  The OVER Is 17-4 in Broncos last 21 November games.  The OVER Is 8-2-1 in Eagles last 11 games off a loss.  These teams combined for 95 points last year in a 53-42 EMU victory.  Take the OVER.

7* Rams/49ers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +3.5

The Key: Kyle Shanahan has had the Rams' number over the last couple seasons.  The 49ers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  They won outright as underdogs the 3 times they were in this role.  I like the price we are getting on the 49ers after their upset loss to the Cardinals last week.  The Rams continue to get respect despite losing outright by 12 as 7-point favorites to the Titans last week.  This game should be lined much closer to a PK as these are closer to even teams than their records would suggest when you take a deeper look into the stats.  Take San Francisco.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Carolina Panthers +10

The Key: The Panthers will go with a run-heavy approach with deal-threat QB PJ Walker and RB Christian McCaffrey this week.  It will work against an Arizona defense that ranks 31st in allowing 4.8 YPC.  It will also help shorten the game and keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  I like Carolina's defense which ranks 2nd in the NFL in both YPG (293.1) and YPP (5.0) allowed.  It sounds like the Cardinals are likely to be without Kyler Murray again, and they will be without Chase Edmunds and De'Andre Hopkins as well as all 3 our doubtful or out.  WR Rondale Moore is in concussion protocol as well.  It's asking a lot of Colt McCoy to repeat the performance he had last week.  The Cardinals go from being 5.5-point dogs to the 49ers to 10-point favorites against the Panthers, which is too big of an adjustment.  Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Take Carolina.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Tennessee +20.5

The Key: Tennessee has the best offense that Georgia has faced this year and should be able to put up enough points to stay within this number.  The Vols also have a better defense than they get credit for yielding only 5.3 YPP and 3.8 YPR.  Their fast tempo will be something that Georgia hasn't seen this season and may not be prepared for.  It is the type of style that can actually find some holes in this amazing Georgia defense.  QB Hendon Hooker has thrown 21 TD against only 2 INT this year with 69.4% completions.  He has also rushed for 457 yards and 4 TD while being one of the most underrated QB's in the nation.  Take Tennessee.

7* Wyoming/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNDER 48.5

The Key: Wyoming and Boise State are two UNDER teams because they run the ball a lot and have good defenses.  Wyoming attempts 42 rushes per game while Boise State attempts 38.  Wyoming yields 21.3 PPG and Boise State 20.9 PPG.  The last 4 matchups between Wyoming and Boise State have seen 26, 37, 48 and 38 combined points.  Take the UNDER.

7* UNC/Pitt ACC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 71.5

The Key: Two of the best offenses in the ACC go at it tonight when North Carolina travels to face Pitt.  The Panthers score 45 PPG and average 541.1 YPG behind an NFL quarterback in Kenny Pickett who has 29 TD and only 3 INT this year.  North Carolina averages 38.9 PPG and 488.8 YPG behind an NFL quarterback in Sam Howell who can beat you with his arms and his legs.  He did just that last week in a 58-55 win over Wake Forest.  And it should be a shootout again tonight against this Pitt squad.  UNC's last 3 games have all seen 78 or more combined points.  6 of Pitt's last 8 games have seen 72 or more combined points.  UNC is 7-0 OVER In its last 7 road games against good passing teams that complete 58% or better. Take the OVER.

7* Tuesday MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron/Western Michigan OVER 62

The Key: Western Michigan will gets its points against Akron's defense and can pretty much name its number.  The Zips should get their points as well being an improved offense under QB Zach Gibson, who has 72% completions, 8 TD and 0 INT in basically 3 starts this year.  The Zips scored 35 points against Bowling Green, 21 against Miami and 25 against Ball State in his 3 starts.  He threw for 291 against a good Miami defense and 331 against Ball State.  The OVER is 5-1 in Zips last 6 road games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 home games against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 Tuesday games.  Take the OVER.

7* Bears/Steelers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have won 3 in a row behind one of the best defenses in the NFL that has held their last 3 opponents to an average of just 16.3 PPG.  I don't see the Chicago Bears topping that number Monday, which will allow Big Ben and the offense to make just enough plays to cover this 6.5-point spread and win by a TD or more.  The Bears have the worst offense in the NFL, ranking last at 4.4 YPP this year.  They have been even worse with Justin Fields at QB.  They average just 264 YPG in their last 6 games with him as their starter.  Chicago's defense is a huge concern too with all the injuries.  They gave up 38 points to the Bucs followed by 33 points, 467 yards and 8.6 YPPG last week to the 49ers in their last 2 games.  Pittsburgh will get to 24, and that will be enough to win by 7 or more.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a loss.  Chicago is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Chargers/Eagles NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1

The Key: The Chargers had 3 straight impressive wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns before being flat the last 2 weeks against the Ravens and Patriots.  All 5 of those teams are better than the Eagles, whose 3 wins this year have come against the Lions, Panthers and Falcons.  The Chargers will make easy work of the Eagles this week and get back on track.  Los Angeles is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games against NFC teams.  Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after covering the spread in its previous game.  Take Los Angeles.

7* ACC Game of the Year on North Carolina -2.5

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have played a much tougher schedule than the Wake Forest Demon Deacons this season and they have had tough luck in close games, while the Demon Deacons have won all their close games.  That's the difference in UNC being 4-4 while Wake is 8-0.  But the Tar Heels will hand the Demon Deacons their first loss of the year this week.  The Tar Heels are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games against a team with a winning record.  The home team has covered 6 of the last 7 matchups in this series.  Take North Carolina.

7* VT/BC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +3

The Key: This is Boston College's Red Bandana game that stems back to 9/11 and the heroes.  Look up the story it's pretty good.  The Eagles have been great in this game year after year as it adds to their motivation.  And they won't have any problem being motivated with rival Virginia Tech coming to town for a National TV Friday night game.  I expect them to win this game on the field, but I'll take the 3 points.  The Hokies are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games off 2 straight games where they committed zero turnovers.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after gaining 125 or fewer rushing yards in 3 straight games.  The Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Virginia Tech is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as a road favorite.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take Boston College.

7* Jets/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +10.5

The Key: The New York Jets come into Thursday with confidence with Mike White under center.  They just had 34 points and 511 yards against a good Cincinnati defense last week behind 405 passing yards and three touchdowns from White.  The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a disappointing OT loss to the Titans and are on a short week.  They may bounce back with a win, but asking them to win by 11 points or more tonight is asking a lot.  Carson Wentz continues to make bonehead plays week after week.  And he'll be without TY Hilton, plus the defense will now be without DT Tyquon Lewis.  Indianapolis is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite.  Take New York.

7* Tuesday MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio/Miami (Ohio) UNDER 53

The Key: Two poor offensive teams go at it tonight in MACtion when Miami (Ohio) visits Ohio.  Both teams are averaging just 21.1 PPG and I think this total is too high.  8 of the last 11 matchups between these teams have resulted in 47 or fewer combined points.  The Redhawks are 8-1 UNDER in their last 9 MAC road games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Redhawks last 10 games off a conference win.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Redhawks last 9 games off an ATS win.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 matchups.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bobcats last 5 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* Giants/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -9.5

The Key: The price is right to back the Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night.  They were 13-point favorites when this line opened and are now single-digit favorites.  They got crushed by the Titans last week, while the Giants crushed the Panthers.  Those recent results from last week are playing too much of a factor into this line this week.  Consider the Chiefs' 2 best performances this year came against NFC East teams when they went on the road to beat both the Eagles by 12 and Washington by 18.  They will also beat the banged-up Giants by double-digits this week.   New York is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 15 points or fewer last game.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Houston Texans +14.5

The Key: Tyrod Taylor makes his return to the Texans looking to pick up where he left off in the first 2 games this year and provide this offense the same spark that he had before.  Taylor accounted for 471 yards and 4 touchdowns without a turnover in 6 quarters against the Jaguars and Browns to open the season.  He has been a covering machine as a starting QB in this league.  The Rams won't be hungry enough to put away the Texans by more than 2 touchdowns.  And it's an early start time for a West Coast team here, which is always a tough situation.  Take Houston.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +30.5

The Key: Oklahoma State hasn't won a game by more than 11 points this season.  They may win this game by more than 11, but it's not going to be by 31-plus.  Kansas nearly upset Oklahoma last week and is getting better under their first-year head coach.  They will keep battling and keep this game competitive for 4 quarters.  The Cowboys are in a hangover situation after suffering their 1st loss of the season last week against Iowa State.  Take Kansas.

7* Navy/Tulsa NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNDER 46.5

The Key: Tulsa has had the last 2 weeks off to prepare to face Navy's triple-option.  It is one of the weakest offenses in recent memory for Navy, and the Golden Hurricane should shut it down.  The Midshipmen average just 17.9. PPG and 280.3 YPG this year.  They do have a good defense and shorten games with their offense.  They give up 356 YPG on defense.  Tulsa has an above average defense and is good at stopping the run, giving up 3.8 YPC this year.  Take the UNDER.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +6.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won and covered 6 straight since that ugly opening loss to the Saints.  They are missing some players tonight, but so are the Cardinals, most notably JJ Watt.  As long as the Packers have Aaron Rodgers under center they have a chance.  And it's worth noting the Packers are 6-0 in 6 games without Devante Adams over the last 3 years and scoring over 32 PPG.  Take Green Bay.

7* Saints/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on OVER 41

The Key: The New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks will combine to go OVER the number tonight.  The Saints are scoring 25.4 PPG and the Seahawks 23.3 PPG.  They should have no problem both getting to 20 in this game.  The Seahawks yield 24.8 PPG.  The Saints have a good defense, but I don't think Geno Smith is as big of a downgrade over Russell Wilson that everyone makes him out to be.  Take the OVER.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Houston Texans +18

The Key: We have the perceived best team in the NFL in the 6-0 Arizona Cardinals against the perceived worst team in the NFL in the 1-5 Houston Texans here.  That fact has this number artificially inflated.  The Cardinals are primed for a letdown.  They just beat the Rams, 49ers and Browns and have the Packers on deck Thursday, so this is a sandwich spot.  This is more of a bet against the Cardinals due to the spot than it is a bet on the Texans.  But it's worth noting the Texans did outgain the Patriots by 8 yards 2 weeks ago and were only outgained by 35 yards by the Colts last week.  Take Houston.

7* Oregon/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA -1

The Key: The Oregon Ducks have been getting too much love since winning at Ohio State.  They have lost to Stanford, nearly lost to Cal and played terribly against Arizona in their last 3 games while going 0-3 ATS.  UCLA is the more legit of these 2 teams and is a field goal away from being 6-1 this year.  They want to avenge their 35-38 road loss at Oregon last year and I expect them to.  The Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off a win.  Take UCLA.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -2.5

The Key: Colorado State is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall.  The only loss came by 10 points at Iowa when they had the Hawkeyes on the ropes as 24-point dogs.  They won by 16 at Toledo as 14.5-point dogs.  They won by 18 over San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites.  They won by 29 at New Mexico as 13-point favorites.  Utah State is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall with its only win coming by 4 points against a very bad UNLV team.  They also lost by 14 to BYU and by 24 to Boise State, both at home.  The Aggies are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as home underdogs.  Take Colorado State.

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +18

The Key: Game report coming soon.

7* Bills/Titans NFL Total of the Week on OVER 53.5

The Key: The Bills and Titans have 2 of the better offenses in the NFL again this season.  The Bills are averaging 34.4 PPG while the Titans are putting up 26.4 PPG.  They combine to average nearly 61 PPG.  So I think the price is right to back the OVER in this game Monday night.  The Bills can name their score against a Titans defense that gives up 26.0 PPG and 6.5 YPP.  The Bills do have a good defense, but they have benefited from forcing 15 turnovers the last 4 weeks.  And they have faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses with 4 of their games coming against the Steelers, Dolphins, Texans and Washington.  The Titans hung 42 points on them last year in a 42-16 victory.  The Titans aren't holding the Bills to 16 points again.  Buffalo is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off 3 straight wins by 10 points or more.  Tennessee is 8-0 OVER against good passing teams that average 235 PYPG or more over the last 2 years.  The OVER is 25-9-1 in Titans last 35 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +10

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football in which they put everything on the line and probably deserved to win.  But they came up short after blowing a 19-point lead.  Now they are on a short week and in a hangover spot.  They face a Texans team coming off one of their best games of the season in a 25-22 loss to the Patriots.  They missed a FG and an extra point and probably should have won that game.  Davis Mills threw for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns and is improving.  He should be good enough to hang with the Colts.  This has been an extremely closely-contested rivalry through the years.  14 of the last 15 matchups were decided by 9 points or fewer.  Take Houston.

7* MAC Game of the Month on Ball State -1

The Key: After a rough start to the season, the Ball State Cardinals are back to looking like the team that won the MAC last season.  They are coming off a 12-point win over Army as a 10.5-point dog and a 25-point win at Western Michigan as a 12.5-point dog.  Now they basically are a pick 'em against Eastern Michigan, a team that isn't nearly on those other two teams' levels.  Eastern Michigan is 4-2 but the wins have come against 4 of the worst teams in the nation.  They are in over their head here against the defending champs.  Ball State is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 against a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an upset win as a dog.  Take Ball State.

7* California/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +14

The Key: The Oregon Ducks just had their dreams of making the college football playoff crushed with a 24-31 loss to Stanford last game.  The game prior was a misleading 41-19 win over an 0-5 Arizona team.  They were outgained by 42 yards by the Wildcats but were +5 in turnovers.  This Oregon team continues to get too much respect for its upset win at Ohio State.  Oregon just lost leading rusher C.J. Verdell and his 397 yards and 5 TD to a season-ending injury, too.  California always seems to play Oregon tough.  The Bears are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in the last 2 matchups the last 2 seasons.  They won outright 21-17 as 9-point home dogs last year.  The only lost 7-17 as 21.5-point road dogs in 2019.  They have the defense to keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  They need their offense to play like it did at Washington 2 games back when they had 457 yards against a very good Huskies defense in an OT loss.  The Golden Bears are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  The Ducks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Take California.

7* Georgia Southern/South Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 51

The Key: Two teams that love to run the football and are both good against the run square off in this Sun Belt showdown Thursday night.  The clock will be moving constantly to help aid in cashing this UNDER.  Georgia Southern averages 47 rushing attempts per game and only 23 passing.  South Alabama averages 40 rushing attempts per game and only 30 passing.  Georgia Southern is holding opponents to 150 RYPG, while South Alabama is holding foes to 121 RYPG.  The UNDER is 2-0 in the 2 matchups between these teams the last 2 years with 41 and 37 combined points scored.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Jaguars last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 home games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Jaguars last 9 games on grass.  We've seen 51 or fewer combined points in 7 of the 11 games played between these teams this year.  Take the UNDER.

7* Colts/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -7

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens always feast on bad teams like the 1-3 Indianapolis Colts.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record.  They face a Colts team that lost by 12 to the Seahawks and by 9 to the Titans.  Their only win came against the Miami Dolphins with backup QB Jacoby Brissett last week.  I think that win has them getting too much respect from the books here.  The Ravens beat the Broncos 23-7 last week and their offense humming right now, while their defense is as healthy as it has been all season and was a force against the Broncos last week.  Take Baltimore.

7* Jets/Falcons NFL London *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the New York Jets in this neutral site game in London.  This line should be closer to a PK as there's not much difference between these 2 teams.  Zach Wilson had his best game yet last week in a 27-24 upset of Tennessee.  They have played a tough schedule and now it lightens up a little here against Atlanta.  The Falcons are 1-3 with their only win coming 17-14 over the Giants.  They lost by 26 to the Eagles, by 23 to the Bucs and by 4 to Washington.  Matt Ryan is broken, and their defense is the worse unit here yielding 32.0 PPG and 383.3 YPG.  The Jets only give up 23.5 PPG and 353.8 YPG and have been respectable on that side.  Wilson is only going to get better with each start, and should have his best game yet against this Falcons defense.  Atlanta is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 against teams that force 0.75 turnovers per game or fewer.  Take New York.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Utah +3

The Key: The Utah Utes are coming off their bye week and have had time to put the distractions and the poor start behind them.  Look for them to put their best foot forward against USC Saturday.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference win.  The Utes are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as road dogs.  Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in its last 70 games as a dog.  The Utes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 October games.  Take Utah.

7* Stanford/Arizona State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Stanford +13.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are starting to get too much love after 2 straight blowout wins over Colorado and UCLA.  They are being asked to win this game by at least 14 points and it's too much.  Stanford has been underrated all season.  They have upset wins over both USC and Oregon, which were expected to be the 2 best teams in the Pac-12 coming into the year.  So they have proven what they are capable of.  And they are more than capable of going on the road and hanging with Arizona State and possibly pulling the upset.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.  Take Stanford.

7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle +2.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seattle Seahawks tonight as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams.  Russell Wilson thrives in prime time, and he and the Seahawks will be out for revenge after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Rams last season.  The Rams have taken a big step back defensively this year in yielding 24.8 PPG and 396.8 YPG.  The Rams are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games after yielding 400 or more total yards in 2 straight games.  Bets against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a terrible defense that yields 360 YPG or more, after gaining 400 or more yards in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

7* Raiders/Chargers AFC West *Total* Annihilator on OVER 51.5

The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 this year behind an offense that is hitting on all cylinders.  The Raiders are scoring 30 PPG and averaging 471 YPG this year.  They still have a pretty weak defense this season.  The Chargers are averaging 394.7 YPG as their offense is humming as well behind Justin Herbert.  They beat the Chiefs 30-24 last week in a shootout.  And their defense hasn't been great either.  These teams played in 2 shootouts last year with the Chargers winning 30-27 on the road and the Raiders winning 31-26 on the road.  The OVER is 7-1 in Raiders last 8 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Washington ML -113

The Key: The Washington Football Team is better than the Atlanta Falcons and that will show on the field Sunday.  I like getting a hungry Washington team here coming off a blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills.  The Atlanta Falcons will take a breather after picking up their first win of the season last week against the injury-ravaged New York Giants.  Ron Rivera has gone 26-9 ATS off a road loss as a head coach in his career.  Take Washington.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Louisiana Tech +19

The Key: The LA Tech Bulldogs are close to being 4-0 despite a brutal schedule.  Their 2 losses are to Mississippi State and SMU by a combined 3 points.  And they had both of them on the ropes with late leads in the 4th quarter.  This couldn't be a worst situation for NC State.  They are feeling fat and happy off their win over Clemson last week.  They won't give the Bulldogs their full attention this week.  The Wolfpack are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Iowa -3

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes are 4-0 this season behind an elite defense that is one of the best in the country.  And defense clearly travels, so I like Iowa to cover this short 3-point spread on the road at Maryland tonight.  The Hawkeyes are giving up just 11.0 PPG and 271.5 YPG while forcing 9 turnovers in 4 games.  These teams have a common opponent in Kent State.  Iowa only gave up 264 yards to Kent State.  Maryland allowed 458 yards to the Golden Flashes.  While Iowa has already played two Top 25 teams in Indiana and Iowa State, Maryland has feasted on a weak schedule during its 4-0 start.  The Hawkeyes are more battle-tested and will get the job done here.  The Hawkeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road favorites.  The Terrapins are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games off a win.  Maryland is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Iowa.

7* Jaguars/Bengals AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 45.5

The Key: The Jaguars and Bengals have 2 of the worst defenses in the NFL.  That has especially been the case for the Jaguars, who are yielding 30.3 PPG and 418 YPG this year.  Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence are going to want to put on a show in this battle of youngsters on the prime time stage.  I think they will do just that, and there should be some turnovers that lead to easy scores as well.  Take the OVER.

7* Eagles/Cowboys MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 51.5

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys are rotten defensively yet again this season.  They rank 27th in total defense giving up 419.5 YPG and 28th in giving up 6.7 YPP.  But the Cowboys are loaded on offense at 4th at 435 YPG while averaging 6.4 YPP.  The Eagles have faced 2 poor offenses which has helped their defensive numbers.  But injuries will catch up to them this week as they just lost one of their best defensive players in DE Brandon Graham to a season-ending injury last week against the 49ers.  The Cowboys have injuries of their own on defense missing DE Demarcus Lawrence and having several other defenders questionable, mostly along the defensive line.  I think we should see another shootout similar to last year's matchup in Dallas in which the Cowboys won 37-17 in one of the first games played by Hurts.  Dak Prescott didn't even play in that game and the Cowboys still had 513 total yards.  The Eagles had 477 total yards themselves but 3 turnovers was the reason for just 17 points.  With Dak back and showing he is elite, the Cowboys should hang another big number on the Eagles.  Philadelphia will be able to keep pace with Hurts and this improved offense.  The OVER is 32-15 in Eagles last 47 road games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 home games.  Take the OVER.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers +6.5

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs don't blow teams out, and the Los Angeles Chargers don't get blown out.  So this is a pretty easy choice for me.  The Chargers only lost 2 games all season last year by more than one score.  They they have lost by more than one score just twice in their last 18 games when you figure they won by 4 at Washington and lost by 3 at home to the Cowboys in their first 2 games this year.  The Chiefs have won just one of their last 13 games by more than one score.  That's a big reason they are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their leaky defense is the reason they can't blow out teams, and it has reared its ugly head again this year.  The Chiefs have yielded 469 YPG and 7.6 YPP in 2 games this year against the Browns and Ravens.  The Chargers averaged 447.5 YPG in 2 matchups with the Chiefs last year.  The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games as road dogs.  Take Los Angeles.

7* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +5.5

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are underrated this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS and just played Georgia last week in a cover.  Now they get to host Kentucky, which will be playing its first road game of the year.  The Wildcats weren't impressive in their 7-point home win over Missouri or their 5-point home win as a 31-point favorite against UT-Chattanooga last week.  They barely escaped with victory over that bad FCS team, and they shouldn't be road favorites here against the Gamecocks.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +30.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They just upset UCLA late Saturday night in a 40-37 win as 10.5-point dogs.  That was one of the most exciting, back-and-forth games of the season.  QB Jake Haener played through an injury and just kept coming in one of the most remarkable games you will ever see by a quarterback.  He had to basically be carried off the field and cannot be 100%.  Look for the Bulldogs to be cautious with him.  They just won't be able to get up for UNLV.  This is actually a step down in competition for UNLV after facing Arizona State and Iowa State the last 2 weeks.  The Rebels are expected to get back QB Doug Brumfield after he missed the last 2 games with injury.  He played well in the opener against Eastern Washington with 117 passing yards and 9.0 YPA as well as 27 rushing yards and a score.  The Rebels only lost that game 33-35 (OT) as 2.5-point dogs against one of the best teams in FCS.  Fresno State has only won one of its last 10 matchups with the Rebels by more than 29 points.  Take UNLV.

7* Marshall/App State NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team this year.  They average 43.7 PPG and 603.7 YPG on offense and run 80 plays per game.  Appalachian State's offense will have no problem keeping up with them as they average 33.3 PPG and 446.3 YPG along with 68 plays per game.  Marshall just scored 80 combined points with East Carolina last game and gave up 553 yards to a mediocre Pirates offense.  The OVER is 21-5 in Thundering Herd last 26 non-conference games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 September games.  Take the OVER.

7* Lions/Packers MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 48

The Key: Both the Packers and Lions were gashed defensively in Week 1 and that should carry over to Week 2 as these are 2 of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Packers gave up 38 points to the Saints and their mediocre offense without Drew Brees and Michael Thomas.  The Lions allowed 41 points and 8.0 YPP to the 49ers.  The Packers were shut down offensively by a good Saints defense and it was clear Aaron Rodgers wasn't in midseason form.  He'll be closer to it this week.  The Lions put up 33 points against the 49ers and can do their part offensively.  These teams have combined for 63 and 55 points in their last 2 matchups.  The Packers scored 73 points in 2 games against the Lions and will do the heavy lifting on this total.  Take the OVER.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: Joe Burrow was impressive in his season debut and didn't look hobbled at all.  He completed 20 of 27 passes for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the Bengals to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Vikings.  Joe Mixon had 127 yards on the ground as the Bengals did pretty much whatever they wanted to against a good Vikings defense.  Now the Bengals take a step down here against a weak Bears offense and defense.  That was evident in their 34-14 loss to the Rams to open the season.  The Bears averaged just 4.7 YPP on offense and gave up 7.7 YPP on defense in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Bears are missing several key players in LB Trevathan, NT Goldman, RB Cohen and could be without T Peters.  Andy Dalton clearly is not the answer at QB and will struggle against his former team as well.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite.  Take Cincinnati.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Utah -8.5

The Key: Kyle Whittingham called out his team after losing the line of scrimmage to BYU in their upset loss last week.  Look for his players to respond here, and for the Utes to put it on the San Diego State Aztecs.  San Diego State will be without starting QB Jordan Brookshire after he was knocked out of the Arizona game last week.  The Aztecs have played a weak schedule of New Mexico State and Arizona thus far, so this is a big step up in competition.  San Diego State was actually outgained by New Mexico State in their opener.  That's a New Mexico State team that lost 30-3 to UTEP and 34-25 to New Mexico.  Whittingham is 22-7 ATS after a game where his team forced zero turnovers as the coach of Utah.  The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against Mountain West teams.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups with four of the wins coming by 16 points or more.  Take Utah.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Illinois +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Illinois tonight as 7-point dogs to Maryland.  We are getting this price because Illinois is coming off two bad losses in a row to UTSA and Virginia.  But keep in mind that Illinois upset Nebraska at home in their opener with a healthy Brandon Peters at quarterback.  Peters left that game and hasn't returned since.  But Peters is now back this week and will give the offense a spark.  I think Maryland is overrated off a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start that included a win against Howard.  The other win was gift-wrapped to them by West Virginia who lost the turnover battle 4-0 in a 30-24 win by the Terrapins.  The Fighting Illini will put up a much better fight than they have the last 2 weeks in this standalone home game in front of a good crowd and with Peters back under center.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 YPP or more last game that has 8 or more offensive starters including their QB returning in the first month of the season are 23-5 ATS since 1992.  Take Illinois.

7* Giants/Washington TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington -3

The Key: Washington has the edge at the line of scrimmage in a big way on both sides of the football in this game.  That will help make up for having a backup QB in Taylor Heinicke, who actually played really well in replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick in the first half last week.  He completed 11 of his 15 passes for 120 yards with a score and didn't turn the ball over.  Washington will be able to rely in Gibson to run the ball after the Broncos rushed for 156 yards on the Giants last week.  The Giants only ran for 60 yards on 20 carries and Saquon Barkley is questionable.  Daniel Jones isn't very good and will be without his safety valve in TE Evan Engram.  This has Washington blowout written all over it.  Take Washington.

7* Ravens/Raiders MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 50

The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders are an OVER team.  They scored 27.1 PPG last year and ranked 8th in total offense at 383.3 YPG.  They gave up 29.9 PPG last year and ranked 25th in total defense at 389.1 YPG.  It should be more of the same this year for the Raiders.  The Ravens averaged 29.3 PPG last year and should do what they want offensively here.  They will have to throw it more with their injuries at RB, which also helps the OVER.  And this game will be played in a dome inside Allegiant Stadium with a great atmosphere for a shootout with fans in attendance.  The OVER is 12-3-1 in Raiders last 16 games.  The OVER is 8-0-1 in Raiders last 9 games as a home dog.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 matchups.  Take the OVER.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: I don't like the outlook of the Minnesota Vikings this season.  They went 0-3 in the preseason and were outscored by 10.6 PPG.  Their defense was a problem last year in allowing 29.7 PPG and 393.3 YPG.  It will be better but not much.  The Bengals were good when Joe Burrow was running the show.  He had 5 300-yard passing games in his 10 starts.  Burrow is back healthy and the offense is loaded.  He is playing behind an offensive line that didn't allow a single sack in the preseason.  And the defense will be improved.  The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and shouldn't be favored on the road here.  Take Cincinnati.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee +20

The Key: Middle Tennessee is primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  16th-year head coach Rick Stockstill brought back 19 starters and added in NC State transfer Bailey Hockman at quarterback.  The Blue Raiders won their opener 50-15 over Monmouth as an 8.5-point favorite.  That was a quality FCS team that came into the season ranked 13th in the country.  Hockman went 17-of-22 passing for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  This is a letdown spot for Virginia Tech coming off a big upset win over North Carolina in the opener last week.  The Hokies took advantage of three UNC turnovers in a 17-10 win.  Their offense is a problem with just 296 total yards against a weak UNC defense.  And they are going to have a hard time covering this big number with their offense.  Hockman and company can keep up with them on the scoreboard.  And don't be surprised if the Hokies are flat off that upset win, and with a game against West Virginia on deck.  The Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Middle Tennessee.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Kansas +26.5

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks had one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in Lance Leipold from Buffalo.  He took the Bulls to 2 MAC title games the past 3 seasons and previously went 109-6 at D-3 Wisconsin-Whitewater.  He is one of the best up and coming head coaches in the country.  Les Miles didn't leave the cupboard bare as he has 16 returning starters and Miles recruited as well as he could have to Kansas.  The Jayhawks went 0-9 last year, so the fact that they finally won a game even though it was against South Dakota in the opener is a big step in the right direction.  It will give these players some confidence moving forward.  Now they face an overrated Coastal Carolina team that nearly went undefeated last year.  Because of that, you are paying a tax to back Coastal Carolina.  Keep in mind Kansas was a 4.5-point home favorite against Coastal Carolina last year and is now a 26.5-point underdog this year, a 31-point adjustment.  Kansas lost that game 23-38, but they outgained Coastal 367 to 318 for the game.  But they were -3 in turnovers which was the difference.  I just think the price is right to back the Jayhawks here as they stay within 4 touchdowns of the Chanticleers.  Take Kansas.

7* Cowboys/Bucs NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -8

The Key: Dak Prescott hasn't played since October after not playing in the preseason.  He won't be able to turn around and hand the ball off much because the Bucs ranked 1st in the NFL against the run last season.  He's going to have to chuck it around, and he's going to have to do so behind a patchwork offensive line that is missing a couple starters.  He's also going to be playing from behind because the Bucs will score at will against a Cowboys defense that gave up nearly 30 PPG last year.  The Bucs have great chemistry with amazingly all 22 starters returning from their Super Bowl team.  They will be clicking from the start this season, while it's going to take the Cowboys some time to gel.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Louisville/Ole Miss NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -9

The Key: There's a lot to like about Ole Miss this year coming off a 5-5 season in which they took Alabama to the wire and beat Indiana in their bowl game.  The Rebels have an elite offense that put up 39.2 PPG and 556 YPG last year.  They have 8 starters back on offense and QB Matt Corral.  They have 9 starters back on defense and will be improved there.  Louisville went 4-7 last year with its 4 wins all coming in the role of the favorite against overmatched teams like WKU, Syracuse, Florida State and Wake.  Only 13 starters return for the Cardinals and they lose all of their big playmakers on offense, which is going to make it hard for them to keep up with Ole Miss on the scoreboard in a shootout in this one.  The Rebels will get their points.  Take Ole Miss.

7* Notre Dame/FSU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 55

The Key: Florida State and Notre Dame played last year with the Fighting Irish winning 42-26 for 68 combined points.  This rematch should sail OVER the number.  Florida State's defense is not very good after giving up 36 PPG last year and 7 starters back on D this year.  But the Seminoles will have their best offense in years in Mike Norvell's 2nd season.  He led the high-powered offenses at Memphis going 38-15 in his 4 years there including a New Year's 6 Bowl in 2019 before coming here.  McKenzie Milton comes over from UCF to give him his next great quarterback.  And he has 10 returning starters on offense to work with.  Notre Dame will be better than expected on offense this year despite all they lost.  They will also be weaker on defense this year, and that's even after giving up 31 or more points in 4 of their final 6 games.  Take the OVER.

7* Fresno/Oregon NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Fresno State +20.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs looked great in their 45-0 win over Connecticut.  The had 538 yards of offense and will be great on that side of the ball again this year.  They gave up just 107 yards on defense and will be improved there as well.  Oregon did give up 28.3 PPG and 406 YPG last year and won't be great defensively, especially with all the players they are missing in their secondary for the opener.  Anthony Brown is a downgrade at QB now that Tyler Shough left.  Oregon will be good this year, but they are now 3 touchdowns better than this tough Fresno State team from an underrated Mountain West Conference.  The Bulldogs are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Pac-12 games.  Take Fresno State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Duke -6.5

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are flying under the radar coming into the 2021 season.  That's because they went just 2-9 last season.  But they were much better than their record.  Amazingly, the Blue Devils finished -19 in turnover differential last year.  It can only get better this year with improved QB play as Chase Brice transferred and was a turnover machine.  One of Duke's win last year came against this same Charlotte team as they blew them out of the building, 53-19.  Now they are just being asked to cover a 6.5-point here and win by a TD or more to cover.  I certainly like the price.  Charlotte went 2-4 last year with its only wins coming against North Texas and UTEP.  Three losses came by 15 points or more.  The 49ers only have 5 starters back on defense and should get picked apart on that side of the field this season.  Take Duke.

7* Thursday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on East Carolina +10

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates were much better than their 3-6 record last year.  They got robby against Tulsa by the refs the week after losing to Navy by 4.  But they played their best football of the season the last 2 games beating Temple by 25 and upsetting SMU outright by 14 as 12-point dogs.  That gives them a lot of momentum heading into 2021.  Now they have a whopping 20 starters back and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers who will be starting for a 3rd straight year.  It is head coach Mike Houston's 3rd season here and it is his best team by far.  Appalachian State took a step back in Shawn Clark's first season last year with a 9-3 record.  The 9 wins were all against bad teams, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Louisiana, Coastal Carolina and Marshall.  The Mountaineers will be starting a new QB this year in Duke transfer Chase Brice.  I just think it's asking a lot of them to win this game by double-digits in their opener against what will be a much improved ECU team from the AAC.  It is also on a neutral field in Charlotte and not a true home game for App State, which is big because they've had such a huge home-field advantage through the years.  Take East Carolina.

7* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been dominant since their bye week.  They are 7-0 since their bye and scoring 34 PPG.  The Bucs have the offense to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, who will be running for his life in the Super Bowl without the services of his 2 starting offensive tackles.  The Bucs have the way better defense in this game as they are 6th in the NFL on that side of the ball while the Chiefs are only 18th.  And Tampa Bay will be playing at home.  The Bucs did not play well at all in their first matchup with the Chiefs this season and still only lost 24-27.  They will have their revenge here on the biggest stage of them all with Tom Brady doing what he does.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* NFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Green Bay Packers -3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 7 straight games all by 7 points or more.  They have won those games by an average of nearly 15 PPG.  I think we are getting the Packers cheap as only 3-point home favorites against the Bucs in the NFC Championship Game.  The Bucs will be on the road for the 3rd straight week, and teams in this situation haven't fared well.  The Packers are still very fresh after getting that bye and haven't had to leave home.  They made easy work of the Rams in a 32-18 victory.  They outgained the Rams by 240 yards in that game and put up 484 yards against what was thought to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bucs struggled to move the ball against the Saints and the Packers have a good pass defense.  The Bucs benefited from a +4 turnover differential against the Saints, who basically gave that game away after having a 20-13 lead in the second half, getting outscored 17-0 the rest the way.  The Bucs scored 21 points off turnovers.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over.  He has 50 touchdown passes and only 5 interceptions this year.  The Packers have won 8 of their 9 home games this year with an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG.   They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Green Bay.

7* AFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -10

The Key: Andy Reid has a proven track record of being the best coach in the NFL to back off a bye.  The Chiefs needed a bye as they just seemed to be going through the motions down the stretch.  Now they will turn the switch on and put their best foot forward in the playoffs.  And that will be enough to put away the Cleveland Browns by double-digits.  The Browns had everything go their way against the Steelers by forcing 5 turnovers.  They still gave up 37 points and 553 total yards.  They gave up 47 points to Baltimore and 35 points to Tennessee recently.  The Chiefs will do whatever they want to against this soft Cleveland defense.  And I don't trust Baker Mayfield to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company.  The Browns are 1-10 ATS int heir last 11 road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent.  Cleveland is 9-26-2 ATS in its last 37 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.

7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers nearly beat the Cleveland Browns last week even with resting their starters.  They lost 22-24 but gained 394 yards with a backup QB.  They were a failed 2-point conversion from forcing OT.  Now the Steelers have their starters back and will win and cover in the rematch similar to when they beat the Browns 38-7 at home earlier this year.  Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 all-time against Cleveland and has never lost to them at home.  The Steelers are now 26-2 SU & 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 home matchups with Cleveland.  The Browns will now be without head coach Kevin Stefanski due to COVID, and he is their play-caller on offense.  It's a huge loss.  The Browns are 8-26-2 ATS in their last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +3

The Key: The Jets have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL to back down the stretch.  They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have pulled off 2 straight upsets over the Rams as 17.5-point dogs and Browns as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they would love to get revenge from a 27-30 loss to the Patriots in their first matchup this season.  The Patriots are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall, getting outscored a combined 24-84 in the process.  They haven't even been competitive.  If they were going to show something it would have been against the Bills on Monday Night Football last week.  Instead they rolled over and lost 9-38.  Their offense is broken as they have been held to either 12 points or fewer or 291 yards or fewer in 5 straight games coming in.  They are missing several key contributors on both sides of the football.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take New York.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* Bills/Patriots MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7

The Key: The Bills have a lot to play for.  They can be the first team to sweep the season series with the Patriots in 19 years.  And they can grab a stranglehold on the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win here over the Patriots.  They want to keep their momentum going, too.  The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss coming on that hail mary against Arizona.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as well with 5 wins by 10 points or more.  They are scoring 34.8 PPG in their last 6 games and giving up just 18.8 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Patriots are averaging just 248 YPG in their last 4 games as their offense has held them back all season.  Their best defensive player in CB Stephon Gilmore just went out with a season-ending injury against the Dolphins last week in their 22-12 loss.  They won't have him to match up with Stefon Diggs now, who is having a monster season in his first year in Buffalo.  There's just nothing to like about the Patriots right now, and there's everything to like about the Bills, who may be the best team in the AFC.  Take Buffalo.

7* AFC Total of the Year on Broncos/Chargers OVER 47

The Key: This game between Denver and Los Angeles has shootout written all over it.  Neither team has anything to play for.  And both are missing key players on defense.  The Broncos are missing as many as 5 defensive backs plus their best defensive player in LB Bradley Chubb.  We saw what the Bills did to them last week in scoring 48 points and with 352 passing yards and 182 rushing yards.  The Chargers will light up this scoreboard as well.  The Chargers are without their 2 best pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  They give up 27.8 PPG this year, while the Broncos allow 28.2 PPG.  These teams played in a 31-30 shootout in their first matchup in favor of the Broncos with their big comeback victory.  And it should be more of the same here in the rematch given the defensive injuries to both teams.  The Broncos are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games after allowing 40 points or more last game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 8-3 in Chargers last 11 games overall.  Take the OVER.