Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Alabama/Georgia SEC Game of the Year on Georgia +12 

The Key: Georgia wants to avenge its 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the championship game last year.  This is the opportunity they’ve waited a year for, and I expect them to take advantage.  They are the team best equipped to beat Alabama in the country.  They have an elite defense and an experienced offense with yet another elite running game, plus Jake Fromm calling the shots at quarterback.  Bets on neutral field underdogs who average 200 or more rushing yards per game after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-4 ATS since 1992.  Take Georgia. 

7* NIU/Buffalo NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo -3 

The Key: I believe Buffalo to be the better of these two teams, and I don’t really even think it’s close.  While NIU has the better defense, they don’t have the offense that can keep up with Buffalo.  The Bulls score 35.2 PPG this season behind a balanced attack with 200 rushing yards and 219 passing yards per game.  And they have a pretty good defense of their own giving up 24.2 PPG.  NIU averages a putrid 19.9 PPG and 318 YPG.  The Huskies give up 20.9 PPG, so they have a good defense, but they are actually getting outscored and outgained on the season.  They were fortunate to make the MAC Championship to say the least as the MAC West was down this season.  The Huskies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a neutral field underdog.  Buffalo is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS against MAC opponents this season.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games dating back to last season.  The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Saints/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +8 

The Key: The Saints are doing something that is rarely seen in the NFL.  They come in 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  But now the love for the Saints is getting to be too much as they’re being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road here against the Cowboys.  And this is a Cowboys team that has played much better since trading for Amari Cooper.  They have won and covered 3 straight coming in.  Their offense is good enough to hang with the Saints, and they have the 3rd-best scoring defense in the NFL giving up only 19.4 PPG.  The Saints are not good on defense, and the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against teams who give up 350 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Titans/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -4 

The Key: The home team has won and covered 5 straight in this series between the Titans and Texans.  The Texans have won each of their last 6 meetings with the Titans all by 6 points or more.  And those 6 wins have come by an incredible 20 points per game.  With the Texans looking to avenge their 17-20 loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season, I think they’ll have no problem covering this 4-point spread at home tonight.  And Marcus Mariota is far from 100% as he was questionable all week leading up to this game.  Take Houston. 

7* Packers/Vikings Sunday Night Game of the Year on Minnesota -3 

The Key: The Vikings are as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1.  The Packers have several key players questionable or out for this game.  And the Vikings are sure to be hungry off a loss to the Bears last week. The Packers have lost 3 of their last 4 coming in and just aren’t a very good team.  Aaron Rodgers lacks weapons because of all the injuries, and the defense remains poor.  The Packers have the biggest home/road split of any team in the NFL over the past decade.  They are great at home but terrible on the road.  The Packers are 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 8.2 PPG.  No team has been as good as the Vikings at home over the past several season.  Minnesota is 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  Mike Zimmer is 27-11 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  This line of -3 seems very cheap Sunday night.  Take Minnesota. 

7* South Carolina/Clemson ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on South Carolina +26.5 

The Key: Clemson will make the four-team playoff no matter what happens in this game against South Carolina as long as they beat Pitt next week in the ACC Championship.  The Tigers are getting too much love now after going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They did not cover as 29.5-point favorites against Duke last week in a 29-point win.  And now they are 26.5-point favorites against South Carolina, a team that is much better than Duke.  The Gamecocks have their best offense of the Will Muschamp era this season as they are scoring 32.8 PPG.  And they still have a solid defense.  They have what it takes to stay within 4 touchdowns of the Tigers.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.  South Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games overall.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take South Carolina. 

7* Washington/Wash State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington State -2 

The Key: This year just feels different.  I know Washington has owned Washington State in the Apple Cup, but this is the best Cougars team that Mike Leach has had yet.  And I think they’re ready to take that next step.  The Cougars are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, getting overlooked all year.  Their only loss came early in the season by a field goal at USC.  Washington has been overvalued all season, going 8-3 SU & 2-9 ATS.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season.  Take Washington State. 

7* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7 

The Key: The Cowboys win two games on the road and all of a sudden they are laying 7 points at home to the Washington Redskins.  They haven’t been favored by 7 points or more in any game this season.  And the Cowboys are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite when playing on less than 6 days’ rest.  Colt McCoy is one of the best backups in the league and has even guided the Redskins to a win in Dallas previously.  Take Washington. 

7* Chiefs/Rams MNF Total of the Year on OVER 62.5 

The Key: This game has been moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, yet the total hasn’t moved one bit. If anything it has gone down.  They were going to play on a terrible, sloppy field, and now they are going to play on a perfect field in perfect weather.  It’s going to be great scoring conditions Monday night for two of the best offenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are putting up 35.3 PPG while the Rams are putting up 33.5 PPG.  And I expect both teams to reach or exceed their season averages in this contest.  It will be similar to the 45-35 Saints game the Rams played two weeks ago, and the 43-40 game the Chiefs played against the Patriots several weeks back.  Both offenses will shine, and the defenses will do little to stop them.  The OVER is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games.  The OVER is 21-10 in Rams last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the OVER. 

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -1 

The Key: Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley both stated that the Giants are going to win their remaining 8 games and salvage their season.  While I don’t believe them, I do think they’ll win this week against the Bucs.  And they won their first game back from the bye over the 49ers to start the streak.  It just shows that they aren’t quitting.  And it’s worth noting they played the toughest schedule in the NFL in the first half of the season.  It gets easier now, and it started with the 49ers and moves on to the Bucs this week.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall.  The Bucs managed just 3 points in a 16-3 loss to an injury-ravaged Redskins team ripe for the picking.  Things are not good in Tampa Bay right now.  The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bucs.  Take New York. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming -2.5 

The Key: Wyoming has fought its way back into bowl contention at 4-6 on the season.  The Cowboys went on the road and beat Colorado State 34-21 and topped San Jose State 24-9 at home.  Then they had a bye last week to get ready for the stretch run, where now if they beat Air Force and New Mexico they will get to a bowl, which is very doable.  It starts with taking care of Air Force here, and they have the rest advantage because Air Force played New Mexico last week.  The Falcons only run the football as they average just 14 pass attempts per game.  That bodes well for Wyoming, which is giving up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The Falcons are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings.  Take Wyoming. 

7* Memphis/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU +9 

The Key: SMU can clinch a bowl berth with a win Friday night at home over Memphis.  Memphis has already clinched a bowl at 6-4.  It’s clear to me the hungrier team will be the home underdog Mustangs.  And they are fighting for a bowl and have been for weeks, going 3-1 in their last 4 games with their only loss coming to nationally ranked Cincinnati in overtime.  They upset Tulane as 9.5-point road dogs 27-23 and upset Houston 45-31 as 14-point home dogs.  And now they are catching too many points against Memphis.  The Tigers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their defense is giving up 42 PPG and 504 YPG.  SMU has topped 500 total yards in each of its last two games against Houston and UConn while averaging 53.5 PPG and should be able to move the ball at will.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 42 or more points in 2 straight games coming in are 44-12 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take SMU. 

7* FAU/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on North Texas -3.5 

The Key: North Texas wants revenge from two losses to FAU last season.  They lost 69-31 in the regular season and 41-17 in the conference championship game.  But there’s no question the Mean Green have the better team in 2018, and it will show on the field Thursday night.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games.  Take North Texas. 

7* Giants/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3 

The Key: I know the 49ers aren’t going to quit.  They show up every week looking to win.  And it paid off last week with a 34-3 victory over the Oakland Raiders.  That coincided with Nick Mullens taking over for the terrible CJ Beathard at quarterback.  And Mullens has now earned another start after tossing 3 touchdown passes in the win.  The Giants are still going with Eli Manning.  He has started every game and the Giants are 1-7.  Their offense is about as inept as any in the league because of Eli and a terrible offensive line.  The 49ers have the better offense and the better defense, and they’re home on Monday Night Football.  I think the price is right to lay the field goal with them here.  The Giants are 1-9 ATS in all games with a line of +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.  The 49ers are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 MNF games.  Take San Francisco. 

7* NFC Total of the Year on Seahawks/Rams OVER 50.5 

The Key: The Seahawks and Rams combined for 64 points in their first meeting this season.  And now they’ll be in perfect weather in Los Angeles.  The Rams have arguably the best offense in the NFL as they’re scoring 33.2 PPG.  And their defense has been very leaky of late by allowing 27.3 PPG in their last 6 games.  The Seahawks have come alive offensively by scoring 27 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games.  I think both teams get to at least 27 today as well.  The OVER is 15-4 in Seahawks last 19 road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus PPG.  The OVER is 19-6 in Seahawks last 25 road games as a dog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Take the OVER. 

7* FSU/Notre Dame Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State +17 

The Key: This line has hardly moved since it was announced that Ian Book was out at quarterback for Notre Dame.  Oddsmakers aren’t adjusting enough for his absence.  Brandon Wimbush will take his place, and he’s a terrible passer.  He’s completing just 55.3% of his passes this season compared to 74.5% for Book.  Wimbush has a 1/4 TD/INT ratio compared to the 15/4 mark for Book.  Wimbush is a running quarterback.  That plays right into Florida State’s hands.  The biggest strength of this entire FSU team is their run defense.  The Seminoles only give up 111 RYPG and 2.8 YPC!  That’s not what you would expect form a 4-5 team like them.  But this is the Super Bowl for the Seminoles and they’ll come to play tonight to try and knock off the unbeaten Fighting Irish.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 November games.  All the pressure is on the Irish tonight.  Take Florida State. 

7* Panthers/Steelers NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 51.5 

The Key: This is a very high total for two teams with solid defenses.  The Panthers are allowing 344.7 YPG this season while the Steelers are giving up 348.2 YPG.  These teams are 11th and 12th in total defense, respectively.  The Panthers are 8-1 UNDER in road games on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.  The Panthers are 48-21 UNDER in their last 69 games off a win against a division rival.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Steelers lsat 25 games following an ATS win.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 49.5 or greater after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last 5 games, in November games are 30-7 since 1983.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Toledo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -3 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies can basically wrap up to the MAC West title with a win tonight.  No question they’ll be motivated to get it done.  This has been one of the best teams in the MAC all season, and they should be able to handle Toledo by more than a field goal at home tonight.  NIU is 6-3 this season with its 3 losses coming to Utah, Iowa and Florida State.  The Huskies have handled their business in MAC play this year with a 5-0 conference record.  They also went on the road and upset BYU.  Toledo is still without starting QB Mitchell Guadagni.  Their backup has played well in his place, but against soft defenses, and he’s going to really get tested tonight against the best defense in the MAC.  The Huskies are giving up just 20.4 PPG and 327 YPG in MAC play this year.  That’s the difference in this game.  Toledo is allowing 26.4 PG and 445 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Kent State/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +20 

The Key: Buffalo doesn’t even need to show up tonight.  The Bulls can lose outright and it won’t matter.  Next week’s game against Ohio will decided the MAC East champion.  I think their lack of motivation will allow Kent State to get the cover here.  And I also like that there is gusts of up to 50 miles per hour forecasted in this one, which should keep this a low scoring affair.  Take Kent State. 

7* Titans/Cowboys NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 40 

The Key: This is a very low total for an NFL game.  It doesn’t take much to go OVER 40 points in the NFL anymore with the rules that favor the offenses.  And I think with both teams off bye weeks they’ll have come up with some more creative game plans to spark their offenses.  The Cowboys should already get a spark with the addition of Amari Cooper.  They should have one of the better offenses in the league moving forward now that they have a legitimate No. 1 receiver.  The Cowboys are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 home games when playing with 2 or more weeks rest.  Bets on the OVER when the total is 35.5 to 42 against teams off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division opponent, in November games are 26-3 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER. 

7* AFC Game of the Year on Cleveland Browns +9 

The Key: Backing teams in their first game with a new head coach is certainly a profitable move long-term.  It gives that team new life and new hope, and the first game out is the time to back them.  I’ll back the Browns today because of it.  The Chiefs are 31st in total defense this season, which makes them vulnerable despite having one of the top offenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS off 4 straight games where they gained 6 YPP or more in their last 10 tries.  Take Cleveland. 

7* NCAAF Independent Game of the Year on Liberty +2 

The Key: Liberty is the better of these two teams.  They sit at 4-3 on the season with wins over the likes of Troy and New Mexico.  And they’ve been competitive in most of their games.  Plus they had a bye last week to get ready to face UMass this week.  UMass is coming off a fortunate 22-17 victory at UConn last week as they trailed most the way.  And UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Minutemen are just 3-6 this season with their other two wins coming against Duquesne and Charlotte.  All 6 of their losses have come by double-digits.  Now they have to face an option team here in Liberty.  The last time they faced an option team they lost 13-34 at Georgia Southern as 1.5-point underdogs on September 8th. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.  Take Liberty. 

7* Colorado/Arizona NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona -2.5 

The Key: Khalil Tate finally looked healthy for the first time all season last week as he returned from injury to face Oregon.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season in a 44-15 victory.  Tate threw for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win.  And now the Wildcats are getting zero respect for that victory as only 2.5-point home favorites over Colorado Friday night.  I think the Wildcats remain hungry because they are 4-5 and need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and this game is a must-win if they want to get to a bowl because they have a road game at Washington State next time out that they’re unlikely to win.  And they get a bye next week so they certainly want to go into their bye with a taste of victory.  Colorado blew a huge lead against Oregon State last week and lost 34-41.  I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight as the competition has ramped up.  Colorado is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Buffaloes are also 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points were scores over the last 2 years.  Take Arizona. 

7* Raiders/49ers NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44.5 

The Key: Both the 49ers and Raiders don’t play any defense.  The Raiders have been moving the ball on offense just fine and have to air it out now without a running game.  They scored 28 on the Colts last week but also gave up 42.  The 49ers have been moving the ball fine even without Jimmy G at quarterback.  Beathard is banged up but should be able to produce one of his best games of the season against the Raiders tonight, and even if Mullens has to play I like the 49ers’ chances of keeping pace with Carr and company.  Either way there won’t be much defense being played tonight.  Take the OVER. 

7* Ball State/Toledo MAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Ball State has several key injuries right now that will hamper their ability to score points.  Riley Neal means everything to this team at the quarterback position.  He was knocked out for the season in their last game and won’t be returning.  That leaves backup QB Drew Pitt to take the reigns.  Also, leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable to play tonight with a back injury.  They have some serious injuries on the offensive line as well.  For Toledo, starting QB Mitchell Guadagni is questionable with a shoulder injury, and even if he plays he won’t be 100%.  Ball State is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 games as a road dog of 14.5 to 21 points.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Wednesday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toledo.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Kent State/Bowling Green MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +1.5 

The Key: Both Kent State and Bowling Green are 1-7 this season.  But it’s clear to me that Kent State is better than their record, while Bowling Green is every bit as poor as its record.  The only win for Bowling Green came 42-35 at home over Eastern Kentucky.  The lone win for Kent State came 54-14 over Howard, the same Howard team that only lost 32-38 to Ohio.  And Kent State has losses by 1, 1, and 7 points this season to Illinois, Ohio and Akron.  Bowling Green’s 7 losses have all come by 7 points or more, and 6 of them by 15 points or more.  These teams have 2 common opponents with both losing, the difference being Kent State only losing by 13 PPG while Bowling Green losing by 25 PPG.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who average 250 PYPG or more and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. teams who allow 230 RYPG or more.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  The Falcons are 1-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 years.  Take Kent State. 

7* Pats/Bills AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45 

The Key: The Bills have the worst offense in the NFL.  They are averaging just 11.6 PPG and 234 YPG.  And their offense has been even worse without Josh Allen.  Derek Anderson came out of retirement to quarterback the team.  It didn’t go well last week as the Bills managed just 5 points against the Colts.  But the Bills do have a solid defense as they are only giving up 321 YPG this season, which is one of the best marks in the league.  And they can slow down the Patriots enough to keep this total UNDER the number.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams when the total is 42.5 to 49 points in conference games, off a road win where they scored 31 or more points are 24-5 since 1983.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams after going over the total by more than 14 points in consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 35-10 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

7* NFL Total of the Week on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44.5 

The Key: The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense this season.  It’s no wonder they have gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games with 41 or fewer combined points in 4 of those.  And I like the price we are getting with the UNDER 44.5 on them here Sunday against another defensive minded team in the Carolina Panthers.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12 

The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State.  That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it.  The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of.  They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards.  They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them.  The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season.  They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend.  Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take Cal. 

7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night.  The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl.  And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business.  The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday.  Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss.  The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards.  Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown.  Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels.  Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point.  It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State.  The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season.  I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Colorado State. 

7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3 

The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight.  Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies.  Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time.  Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage.  And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Troy/South Alabama Sun Belt *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 

The Key: The Troy Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker to a torn ACL two games ago.  Backup Sawyer Smith started against Liberty and the Trojans lost a defensive battle, 16-22.  This should be another defensive battle here against South Alabama if the recent series history is any indication.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 27 (2017), 49 (2016), 42 (2015) and 40 (2014) points.  I’m shocked to see this total sitting at 54.5 given the series history plus Troy’s QB situation.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Giants/Falcons NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4.5 

The Key: The Falcons haven’t been covering this season because they can’t play defense.  They are 2-4 ATS, but their two covers came by 2 points over the Falcons and by 2 points over the Bucs.  That Bucs win last week needed a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant in the closing seconds to cover the 3-point spread in a 5-point win.  And Bryant hurt his hamstring on the kick and will miss this game.  As far as kickers go, Bryant is one of the most valuable in the league.  And his role is even larger in recent seasons with all of the red zone struggles by the Falcons.  But the biggest reason I’m fading the Falcons this week is their defense.  They are giving up 32 PPG and 418 YPG this season.  They are missing 3 defensive starters due to injury and haven’t been able to replace them.  The Giants have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  The Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a Thursday game.  The Giants are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

7* Titans/Chargers London *Early Riser* on Los Angeles -6.5 

The Key: The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 4-2 on the season with their only two losses coming to the Rams and Chiefs, who are the two best teams in the NFL to this point.  They crushed the Raiders by 16 at home before an even more impressive 38-14 road win over the Browns in their last two games.  They should have another blowout victory over the Titans here.  The Titans lost 21-0 last week to the Ravens and just have no semblance of an offense whatsoever.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL at 14.5 PPG and 263 YPG on offense.  Philip Rivers and company are scoring 29.2 PPG with 412 YPG on offense.  I just don’t see how the Titans can hang with Rivers and company here.  The Chargers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC South teams.  The Titans are 17-42-4 ATS in their last 63 vs. AFC teams.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 

The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already.  The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already.  And they just aren’t that good.  They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites.  And I question their motivation now with 3 losses.  Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country.  They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24 

The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years.  The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs.  They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win.  So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure.  And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting.  I just think Boise State is overrated right now.  They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games.  The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Colorado State. 

7* Broncos/Cardinals NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -1 

The Key: We’re getting the better team here in the Broncos where they just have to win the game to cover the spread.  I’ll take it.  The Broncos need a win here after 4 straight losses against a tough schedule where they were underdogs in all 4 games.  But here they’re back to a favorite against the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.  It’s a Cardinals team that is putting up just 13.7 PPG and 220 YPG this season on offense.  You can’t win in today’s NFL with that kind of offense.  And now the Cardinals will be down two starting offensive linemen in Justin Push and Mike Iupati.  That doesn’t bode well for them against this dominant Denver defensive line.  The Broncos are moving the ball just fine averaging 388 YPG and 6.2 YPP.  The Broncos have won 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Cardinals for an 89% success rate.  Take Denver. 

7* 49ers/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -9 

The Key: The Packers are 2-0-1 at home this season.  The last time they were at home they blew out the Bills 22-0.  And they’ll be hungry for a victory today after giving the game away against Detroit last week in a 23-31 road loss.  They outgained the Lions by 257 yards in that game a week after outgaining the Bills by 276 yards.  But they missed out on 10 possible points from kicker Mason Crosby and lost he turnover battle 3-0.  The 49ers just lost by 10 at home to the lowly Cardinals of all teams last week.  The 49ers are now 1-12 in games in which Jimmy G doesn’t start over the last 2 seasons, and most of those losses can be attributed to the inept CJ Beathard.  It doesn’t help that the 49ers have all kinds of injuries at receiver and along the offensive line as well.  I don’t expect them to be able to stay within double-digits of the Packers tonight.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 October games.  The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 October games.  The Packers are 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the 49ers.  Take Green Bay. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +2 

The Key: Big Ben and the Steelers own the Bengals and should not be underdogs in this AFC North battle.  Especially not since they need the win more trailing the Bengals by 1.5 games right now.  The Steelers have won 6 straight meetings with the Bengals.  They are 8-1 in their last 9 trips to Cincinnati as well.  And Big Ben is 25-4-1 in the state of Ohio in his career.  The Bengals just don’t match up well with the Steelers at all, and they are very fortunate to be 4-1 this season.  They get a dose of reality Sunday.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7 

The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week.  However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off.  Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games.  They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia.  They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition.  The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU.  They continue rolling Saturday.  Take Florida. 

7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14 

The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week.  The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks.  The Utes took advantage.  But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC.  Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer.  The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin.  Take Arizona. 

7* PHI/NY NFC East Game of the Month on New York +3 

The Key: Despite being 1-4, the Giants are actually just one game out of first place in the NFC East.  It’s been a bad division and the Giants at least still feel like they’re in it.  So they won’t be giving up on their season any time soon.  And they showed a lot of heart by coming back from 17-3 down to actually take a lead in Carolina on Sunday.  But they lost 31-33 on a 63-yard field goal.  The Giants will be hungry to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles tonight.  The Eagles are getting everyone’s best shot, and they aren’t handling it too well.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games with their only win coming 20-16 over the Colts.  They are two goal-line stands away from being 0-5.  They have injuries everywhere, especially on offense that are holding them back.  And the Super Bowl hangover just appears to be real with this squad.  They should not be 3-point road favorites over the Giants this week.  Thursday NFL home teams are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It’s a huge advantage to play at home on a short week.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Take New York. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5 

The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons.  This one is all about strength of schedule for me.  App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1.  Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern.  I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory.  They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Take Arkansas State. 

7* Redskins/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +6 

The Key: The Redskins have put up the kind of numbers this season that should make you think twice about them.  Most write them off as just a mediocre team.  But the numbers say otherwise.  They are averaging 383 yards per game on offense while giving up a mere 278 yards per game on defense.  They are gaining 5.9 yards per play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards per play on defense.  You won’t find many teams that can claim having anything close to that good of numbers thus far.  And now the Redskins are fresh because they had a bye last week.  The Saints lost outright to the Bucs at home and beat the Browns by a field goal in their two home games this season.  I can’t see them winning this game by a touchdown or more against the Redskins, who are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Saints.  Take Washington. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 

The Key: The Falcons and Steelers are two similar teams in that they both have great offenses and suspect defenses.  But the Steelers can get stops, and I’m not sure the Falcons can due to all their injuries right now.  The Falcons are without 4 starters in D in S Keanu Neal, LB Deion Jones, S Ricardo Allen and DT Grady Jarrett.  Top pass rusher Vic Beasley is also questionable with an ankle injury.  The Falcons have given up 43 points to the Saints and 37 to the Bengals in consecutive weeks.  Ben Roethlisberger and company should have their way with this Atlanta defense too.  Pittsburgh is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division foe as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by 9.7 points per game in this situation.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State +9.5 

The Key: Iowa State is battle-tested already having played Oklahoma, Iowa and TCU with two of those games on the road.  And yet they still haven’t lost by more than 10 points in any game, being competitive in all of them.  Oklahoma State will be the fourth-best team they have faced yet.  And I would argue that Iowa State is probably the best team that Oklahoma State has played.  And the Cowboys lost 17-41 at home to Texas Tech as 14.5-point favorites, so they are beatable.  And the Cyclones want revenge from some close calls recently against the Cowboys.  They have lost 5 straight to Oklahoma State, including the last three all by 7 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well, so the price is right to back the Cyclones here catching nearly double-digits.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Cyclones are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Iowa State is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% competitions or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +2 

The Key: Utah State has gone on to prove that its narrow 31-38 loss to Michigan State as 23.5-point underdogs in the opener was no fluke.  They have since gone 3-0 with a 60-13 win over New Mexico State, a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech and a 42-32 win over Air Force.  And now the Aggies are in the perfect spot having a bye since that Air Force win to get ready for BYU.  Meanwhile, BYU has played a brutal schedule to start and has had no time off.  They’ve played Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, and Washington.  It looked like they ran out of gas last week against Washington, losing 7-35 while getting outgained by 270 yards.  I don’t think they’ll have much left in the tank here Friday on this short week against a rested Utah State squad.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Aggies are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 Friday games.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  BYU is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game on offense.  Take Utah State. 

7* Colts/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -10 

The Key: This is such a tough spot for the Colts.  They are on a short week and coming off an overtime game against the Texans.  And they now have to travel to New England.  Home teams have dominated Thursday games for the last several years because it’s such an advantage for them.  And add in the fact that the Colts have a massive injury report and I just don’t see them even being competitive tonight.  The Patriots are 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with the Colts.  They have won the last 5 meetings by an average of 24.6 PPG.  Enough said.  Take New England. 

7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *Total* Annihilator on OVER 54 

The Key: The Chiefs have been unstoppable on offense thus far.  They are scoring 39.3 PPG and averaging 398 YPG.  Patrick Mahomes has already thrown 13 TD passes without an interception.  I don’t think they’ll get much resistance from the Broncos this week.  Opposing quarterbacks are completing 70% of their passes against Denver’s defense this year and they’re giving up 263 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.  Case Keenum has actually been pretty good as he’s leading a Denver offense that is averaging 383 yards per game and 6.0 YPP.  The Chiefs are giving up 30.7 PPG, 474 YPG and 6.9 YPP as they’re the worst defense in the league to this point.  They are allowing 363 PYPG and 7.7 yards per attempt.  Expect more offensive fireworks tonight between these two teams.  The OVER is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 Monday games.  The OVER is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 Monday games.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* NFL Total of the Month on Bengals/Falcons OVER 52.5 

The Key: The Falcons have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, especially when they are playing at home.  They are averaging 34 points and 424 yards per game at home this year in their two contests.  They should light it up against a Bengals defense that is giving up 26 points and 394 yards per game this season.  And the Bengals have clearly improved offensively this season averaging 30 points and 366 yards per game.  They should be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that is giving up 28 points and 402 yards per game.  The Falcons have so many injuries right now that on defense.  They are without 3 starters in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  The Falcons are 6-0 OVER in home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last 3 seasons.  Atlanta is 9-1 OVER in home games with a total of 49.5 or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 OVER after allowing 400 or more yards in their previous game over the last 3 years.  Take the OVER. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5 

The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations.  They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week.  They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score.  The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread.  Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15 

The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year.  The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule.  I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis.  This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week.  If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home.  And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall.  Take Tulane. 

7* Vikings/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +7.5 

The Key: The Vikings are simply catching too many points tonight against the Los Angeles Rams.  The Vikings have been downgraded big time by the public after their upset loss to the Bills last week.  But that loss will only have them even more hungry to bounce back tonight.  And the Rams could not be viewed any higher in the public’s eyes after their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have beaten three teams in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers who have a combined one win between them this season.  Minnesota shut down the Rams 24-7 at home last year.  Jared Goff hasn’t seen a defense nearly as strong as the one he will be up against tonight.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Vikings are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Steelers/Bucs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -1 

The Key: Before the season, the Steelers would have been close to a touchdown favorite here at Tampa Bay.  But after two weeks, the perception of the Steelers is way down because they tied the Browns and lost to the Chiefs.  But it’s clear the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Browns are one of the most improved teams in the league.  The Bucs are 2-0 out of nowhere with upset wins over both the Saints and Eagles.  Their perception is through the roof right now.  They are overvalued.  Pittsburgh is still the better of these two teams.  They have the better defense and the better offense.  And now they are playing extra hungry looking for their first win of the year.  Expect the Steelers to come out like gangbusters in this one.  Mike Tomlin is 17-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of the Steelers.  The Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a. Winning home record.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Chargers/Rams *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Chargers +7 

The Key: The Rams are getting too much hype right now.  They beat two bad teams in the Raiders and Cardinals and now everyone is crowning them Super Bowl champs already.  And they’re being priced like is as they are now the Super Bowl favorites, and they are 7-point favorites here against a good Chargers team.  The Rams won’t have much of a home-field advantage in this one as both of these teams are based in Los Angeles.  And the Chargers have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  The Chargers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take the Chargers. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point.  But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket.  They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings.  They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday.  The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them.  Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well.  This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse.  Take Clemson. 

7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5 

The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016.  And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them.  FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense.  The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force.  They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort.  UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State.  The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense.  The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite.  The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition.  The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Jets/Browns AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3 

The Key: The Browns are just 1-32-1 in all games over the past 3 seasons.  However, I believe they are favored for a reason here.  They took the Steelers to overtime and tied them.  They should have beaten the Saints last week in a 21-18 loss in which they lost 8 points by the kicker, who was subsequently cut.  This Browns defense is loaded.  Greg Williams loves to blitz, and blitzing rookie quarterbacks is a winning strategy in the NFL.  This will be Sam Darnold’s stiffest test yet after facing weak Lions and Dolphins defenses in his first 2 games.  The Browns have forced 8 turnovers thus far and will force a few more here against Darnold and company.  Cleveland’s offense takes care of the football behind Tyrod Taylor.  That will be the difference in this game.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Seahawks/Bears NFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43 

The Key: The Bears should be a great ‘over’ team this season.  They added a ton of weapons in the offseason, and new head coach Matt Nagy is an offensive guy who came over from Kansas City.  So far so good as the Bears lost to the Packers 23-24 in their opener and went OVER 44.5 points.  The Seahawks are also an ‘over’ team this season.  They can’t run the ball and have to throw it around 40 times a game with Russell Wilson.  And their defense has lost like 6 stars from last season, and they’re banged up right now as well with KJ Wright, Bobby Wagner and Byron Maxwell all unlikely to play.  So far so good for them as well as they lost 24-27 to the Broncos and went OVER 42.5 points.  They gave up 470 yards to the Broncos in the loss.  Pete Carroll is 16-4 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.  Take the OVER. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on New York Jets -2.5 

The Key: I’m a believer in the Jets.  They beat the Lions 48-17 in Week 1 in a dominant defensive effort, an impressive debut of Sam Darnold, and a solid rushing game that produced 169 yards.  Now the Jets head home for their first home game this season, and the fans will be packing the stands in Week 2 to see their rookie QB first-hand.  And the Jets are only 2.5-point favorites in this matchup with the Dolphins, who I believe to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.  And the Dolphins were gassed in the 4th quarter of that 7-hour marathon against the Titans that was continually delayed by lightning last week.  They won 27-20, but now they hit the road for the first time.  The Jets are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days’ rest over the last 2 seasons.  The Jets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 road games.  Take New York. 

7* Ohio State/TCU Top 25 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +14 

The Key: TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog under Gary Patterson.  And now Patterson is catching two touchdowns against Ohio State Saturday.  The Horned Frogs are licking their chops at the opportunity to face the Buckeyes.  Remember, a few years back Ohio State was the team that got into the four-team playoff to knock TCU out of it even though the Horned Frogs deserved to be in.  Patterson and company have not forgotten.  The Horned Frogs play too good defensively to not be competitive here.  And their offense is better than it’s getting credit for with Shawn Robinson at QB.  Even though this is technically a neutral field, it’s not far from TCU’s campus in Arlington and it will be a TCU-heavy crowd.  Take TCU. 

7* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +1 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are now 6-0 this season when you count the preseason.  They are not only winning, they are dominating.  They have won those 6 games by an average of nearly 17 points per game, including their 47-3 drubbing of the Bills last week.  They lost to Cincinnati in their season finale last year with a trip to the playoffs on the line.  It’s revenge time here for the Ravens, who are clearly the better team and simply just have to win this game to cover.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Rams/Raiders MNF *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5.5 

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams should be one of the best teams in the NFL this season, parlaying 2017 Coach of the Year Sean McVay’s big season last year into another great one this year.  They added Brandon Cooks and now have as many weapons as any team in the NFL offensively.  Defensively, they added DT Suh and CB’s Peters and Talib.  They should also have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders are in transition in Jon Gruden’s first season and won’t be that good this year.  They traded away their best defensive player in Kahlil Mack, and many teammates weren’t happy about it.  I just don’t think the Raiders have the offensive punch to hang with the Rams, or the defense to slow them down in Week 1 here.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* NFL Game of the Week on Denver Broncos -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2018.  They were 3rd in total defense last year and only got better this offseason with the addition of the 5th overall pick in Bradley Chubb.  Teams are going to regret passing up on him.  The pass rush and secondary are the strengths of the Broncos, and that makes this a great matchup for them against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  Russell Wilson is in line for a rough game Sunday in Denver.  The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Pete Carroll.  Take Denver. 

7* Georgia/South Carolina SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +10.5 

The Key: South Carolina finally has a team that is capable of competing with Georgia.  The Gamecocks believe they are good enough to challenge the Bulldogs for an SEC East title this season.  They get their chance to prove it on the field at home Saturday in what will be a hostile environment.  The Gamecocks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  This is the best team that Will Muschamp has had yet at South Carolina, especially offensively with a great QB and two amazing playmakers at RB & WR.  Take South Carolina. 

7* TCU/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on TCU -22 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have owned the SMU Mustangs in recent years.  TCU has won the last 5 meetings by more than 31 PPG on average.  And that should be about the margin of victory for this year’s matchup.  TCU is another Big 12 title contender with an elite defense and an improved offense under a new QB.  And SMU is certainly going to take a step back now that Chad Morris is gone after improving dramatically under him and actually making a bowl last year.  But they lost that bowl by 41 points with Sonny Dykes at the helm, and they were blasted by 23 points at North Texas in Week 1 in Dykes’ first official first game as head coach last week.  The Mustangs are in for a rude awakening tonight.  Take TCU. 

7* Falcons/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45 

The Key: The Falcons and Eagles both made deep runs in the playoffs last year due to their defenses, not their offenses.  The Eagles gave up just 18.2 PPG last season while the Falcons surrendered just 19.1 PPG.  I believe this total to be too high tonight.  The Falcons regressed big-time on offense last year, averaging just 21.6 PPG.  That was due to losing coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  The Eagles weren’t nearly as good on offense once Carson Wentz went down last year.  Wentz remains out to start the season, leaving the job to backup Nick Foles, who was awful in the preseason and has been awful in basically every game other than the Super Bowl.  Go figure.  And top wideout Alshon Jeffrey is out with a shoulder injury right now, as is fellow WR Mack Hollins.  The Eagles are limited on weapons in Week 1.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 vs. NFC teams.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 home games.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Miami/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3 

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes won 10 games last year and are a team on the rise under Mark Richt.  They have 14 returning starters, including their starting QB and an elite defense.  LSU is headed in the wrong direction under Ed Orgeron.  And things aren’t getting any better for him this season with just 10 returning starters.  LSU is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.  Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games as a head coach.  LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC teams.  Take Miami. 

7* Washington/Auburn Top 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +2.5 

The Key: The Washington Huskies are one of the best teams in the country in 2018.  They return 17 starters from a team that won 10 games last year.  This is a statement game for them taking down an SEC team in Auburn on a neutral field.  The Huskies have the best unit on the field, which is their defense that gave up 16.1 PPG last year and returns 9 starters.  Their ability to shut down Jarrett Stidham and this Auburn offense will be the key to victory.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Auburn is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games.  Take Washington. 

7* Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -175 

The Key: I trust the experience of Tom Brady and the Patriots much more than that of Nick Foles and the Eagles.  And instead of laying the points, I’m going to back the Patriots at a great money line price of -175 today.  Bill Belichick is 28-0 against the money line after successfully covering the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Patriots.  Enough said.  Take New England. 

7* Jags/Patriots AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 46

The Key: The Jaguars have a Top 2 defense this season.  They have the top-ranked pass defense.  They have the formula and the players to limit what the Patriots can do offensively, which few teams can claim.  But the Jaguars also have one of the worst offenses and one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  That’s why they go with a run-heavy approach, shortening the game and playing to the strength of their defense.  The Patriots have been awesome defensively down the stretch.  They have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  I certainly don’t foresee the Jaguars topping 17 points in this one.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off a big road win scoring 31 or more points are 28-6 since 1983.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Jaguars/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -7 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers committed 5 turnovers and gave up two pick-6’s the first time these teams played.  But the Steelers have gone 10-1 since that loss to the Jaguars in Week 5.  And the only loss was to the Patriots on a controversial call that overturned a game-winning TD.  The Steelers are now basically fully healthy going into the playoffs for the first time in a long time.  They have a high-powered offense and an improved defense.  Blake Bortles won’t be able to keep up with a motivated Big Ben who will want to make amends for that 5-pick effort back in Week 5.  And Le’Veon Bell is primed for a huge game as he gets the bulk of the action in this game against a Jags run D that has been sub-par all season.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.  Their experience wins out in this one.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Titans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -13

The Key: No analysis Saturday due to a funeral

7* Alabama/Georgia NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3.5 

The Key: It’s not often you’ll get the opportunity to back Alabama as this small of a favorite.  After all, they have been favored in 110 for their last 111 games with the only exception being 1-point underdogs at Georgia in 2015.  They blew out the Bulldogs 38-10 that year.  Alabama is equipped to stop Georgia considering the Crimson Tide have the best rushing defense in the country, giving up just 2.7 yards per carry.  Nick Saban is great at making his opponents play left-handed.  He will make Georgia’s freshman QB try and beat them through the air, and I don’t think he is capable of it.  Speaking of Saban, he’s 11-0 all-time against former assistants, winning by 29 PPG on average.  Kirby Smart is simply overmatched here.  Take Alabama. 

7* Panthers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -6.5 

The Key: The Saints have owned the Panthers.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Carolina.  They have scores 31 and 34 points in their two meetings this season, outscoring the Panthers 65-34 in the process.  Their offense has had no trouble moving the ball and scoring points on Carolina’s defense.  That will continue here inside a hostile atmosphere in New Orleans.  Cam Newton went just 14-of-34 passing last week against the Falcons, and I don’t think the Panthers have the firepower on offense to keep up.  Newton has only thrown for over 185 yards twice in his last 9 games.  The Saints are 20-0 SU & 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 home games when they have a winning record.  It’s just a completely different atmosphere inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome when they are good.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Falcons/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +6 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons won 10 games this season despite playing the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL.  The Rams had a great season but only had to face the 17th schedule.  And teams that played the tougher schedule in these wild card games are 41-19 straight up and 41-18-1 against the spread.  They are 24-5 straight up and 23-5-1 against the number when the difference is 10 or more.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3 

The Key: Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide will be out for revenge from their loss to Clemson on the final play of the game as they were going for their 2nd consecutive national championship.  But now Clemson doesn’t have Deshaun Watson to dig them out of a hole again.  Saban is 10-2 straight up in revenge game as the coach of Alabama.  They had an extra week to get ready for this game because they finally didn’t make the SEC Championship.  Now they are getting healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  Take Alabama. 

7* Bills/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -2.5 

The Key: The Bills must win to get into the playoffs.  They need some help, but first they must win.  The Dolphins can’t be trusted to offer much resistance with the way they are playing down the stretch.  They have gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall.  The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road, and that game was tied 16-16 in the 3rd quarter and the Bills really got screwed by the refs having a touchdown called back that changed the complexion of the game.  The Bills just beat the Dolphins 24-16 at home a few weeks back.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  I’ll side with the more motivated Bills in this matchup.  Take Buffalo. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Miami +6.5 

The Key: This will be a home game for the Miami Hurricanes played in the Orange Bowl down in Miami.  They had their two best performances of the season in home night games earlier this year.  They beat Virginia Tech 28-10 as 1.5-point favorites and Notre Dame 41-8 as 3.5-point underdogs.  I think they come forth with a huge effort here against Wisconsin to finish off their season the right way.  Miami will be the bet team Wisconsin has faced outside Ohio State as the Badgers played an extremely soft schedule.  And the Badgers were thoroughly outplayed by the Buckeyes in their lone loss of the season.  I think you can chalk up loss No. 2 for the Badgers here Saturday night.  Take Miami. 

7* Utah State/New Mexico State *Total* Annihilator on OVER 63 

The Key: Expect offensive fireworks between Utah State and New Mexico State tonight in the Arizona bowl in perfect conditions in Tucson.  Utah State scored 35 or more points in 6 of its 12 games this season.  New Mexico State scored 30 or more points in 7 of its 12 games.  Basically both teams need to get to 30 to secure this OVER, which shouldn’t be a problem.  New Mexico State is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games playing on 2 or more weeks rest.  The OVER is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 road games off an ATS loss.  The OVER is 9-3 in Utah State's last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 22-8 in NMSU's last 30 non-conference games.  The OVER is 41-20-2 in NMSU’s last 63 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* Stanford/TCU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -3 

The Key: I’m getting the better defense and the better offense in this game with TCU -3 here over Stanford.  I’m also getting a home-field advantage for the Horned Frogs as this game will be played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas.  The Frogs give up just 17.6 PPG and 329 YPG which is ridiculously impressive in the Big 12 these days.  They also average 33.2 PPG and 414 YPG on offense.  Stanford only averages 32 PPG and 381 YPG on offense while giving up 21.5 PPG and 399 YPG on defense.  They are actually getting outgained by 18 YPG on the season, which is a sign that their 9-4 record is fraudulent.  Gary Patterson has had plenty of time to scheme and prepare for Stanford’s Bryce Love, which is their only real weapon offense.  The Horned Frogs only give up 100 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.  Take TCU. 

7* Missouri/Texas NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +3 

The Key: Missouri feasted on a weak schedule down the stretch to get to a bowl game.  After a 1-5 start, they reeled off 6 straight victories against Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas.  None of those 6 teams made a bowl games.  Texas went through the Big 12 gauntlet and played both USC and Maryland out of conference.  They went 6-6, but they were competitive in every game and 4 of their 6 losses came by 5 points or less.  Tom Herman is 15-1 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Texas. 

7* NIU/Duke NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies have been one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country for years.  They kind of get overlooked this season because they ‘only’ went 8-4, but this is still a very good team that nearly won the MAC.  All four losses came by 10 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer to Boston College (20-23), San Diego State (28-34), Central Michigan (24-31) and Toledo (17-27) with three of those losses coming on the road.  They also beat Nebraska on the road.  So they were competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against Duke here.  The Blue Devils only beat two bowl teams this season.  What gives NIU a shot to pull the upset tonight is the fact that its defense ranks 20th in the country, giving up just 20.8 PPG, 328 YPG and 4.6 YPP on the season.  The offense has been fine in scoring 30.2 PPG.  Duke’s offense has been suspect at 25.7 PPG.  This just has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, and that certainly favors the underdog getting 7 points.  The Huskies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Steelers/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 

The Key: I question the motivation of the Pittsburgh Steelers today.  They blew their game against the Patriots and lost a game that decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  And with the Jaguars losing yesterday, the Steelers can afford a loss today and still get a first-round bye by winning next week against the lowly Browns at home.  They will suffer a hangover from that loss to the Patriots last week.  Plus they don’t have two of their best players in Antonio Brown and Ryan Shazier.  And the Steelers have several close wins against bad teams of late as 6 of their last 7 games have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Bets on teams that were beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last 7 games against an opponent that went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games are 39-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Texans couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now off 3 straight double-digit losses.  Take Houston. 

7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +7 

The Key: Two weeks ago you could have bet the Los Angeles Rams at a pick ‘em against the Tennessee Titans.  This line has moved 7 points since then.  That’s based solely on public perception.  The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 42-7 beat down at Seattle.  After basically clinching the division with that victory, I expect them to suffer a letdown this week against the Titans.  The Titans have since lost back-to-back games and that’s why the perception on them is down.  But they have everything to play for here at 8-6 as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the crowded AFC.  And they still have a chance to win the division if they can win out.  That’s why I expect the best effort of the season from the Titans in this game.  And we’re getting 7 points with them at home.  This is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in the NFL.  Take Tennessee.

7* Colts/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +14 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens don’t have a potent enough offense to be laying 2 touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts today.  In fact, they have one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL.  They have been living off turnovers this season, which is hard to sustain.  They are plus-17 in turnover differential.  But the Colts don’t turn the ball over as Jacoby Brissett has thrown just 7 interceptions on the season.  The Colts have committed 1 or fewer turnovers in 11 of their 14 games this year.  They aren’t going to give the Ravens the gifts they have been used to getting this year.  That’s going to make it hard for them to cover this massive spread.  The Colts have shown up every week and given a great effort for Chuck Pagano.  He is doing a good job, and it’s unfortunate that he may lose that job at the end of the season.  But it won’t be for a lack of fighting, and I expect his players to show up for him this week once again.  This is also a good spot for the Colts as they are rested after playing last Thursday against the Broncos, getting extra time to prepare, while the Ravens are on a short week after beating the Browns on Sunday.  Bets against home favorites a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a losing team are 70-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pagano is 23-13 ATS off a loss as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than 14 points.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Central Michigan/Wyoming NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +3 

The Key: The Wyoming Cowboys are overrated because of Josh Allen’s NFL prospects.  But this offense has been one of the worst in the country.  The Cowboys only average 22.3 points and 287 yards per game.  That’s not very good for a QB like Allen who was expected to be a top draft choice coming into the season.  Conversely, the CMU Chippewas are rolling offensively.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games behind an offense that has scored at least 31 points in all 5 games while averaging 41.2 PPG.  Miami transfer Shane Morris is lighting it up at the quarterback position, and the rushing offense has really gotten going too.  I like their momentum coming into this game and simply think they are the better team and shouldn’t be catching points.  Bets against favorites of 3 to 10 points off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record playing another winning team are 39-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Temple/FIU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple -6.5 

The Key: This is one of the bigger strength of schedule differences of any bowl game.  Temple play the much tougher slate of games.  And after struggling to start, they made the switch at quarterback and have finished strong.  They have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming to unbeaten UCF to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  This Temple senior class has never won a bowl game and will be motivated to do so after getting upset by both Toledo and Wake Forest the past two seasons.  FIU went 8-4 this season, but only 2 of the wins came against bowl teams in Marshall and WKU.  Their 4 losses all came by 7 points or more, including 3 by 20-plus points against the better opponents they faced.  They lost by 44 to UCF and by 28 to FAU.  I think Temple is only a notch below those 2 teams.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 15-3 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.  Temple is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 58% completions or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. C-USA teams.  The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.  FIU is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games.  Take Temple. 

7* Akron/FAU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Florida Atlantic gets too much credit for its offense and not enough for its defense.  The Owls have held each of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer, including 17 and 12 points allowed in their last two contests.  Akron is one of the worst offensive teams that they will have faced this season.  The Zips only average 23.6 points and 330 yards this season.  They do play decent defense and should do enough to slow down the Owls.  The Zips give up 26.3 points per game.  Akron is 10-3 UNDER in all games this season.  The Zips are 8-1 UNDER off a loss by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Zips last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Owls last 6 December games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Falcons/Bucs NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -6.5 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have done whatever they wanted to offensively in their last two meetings with the Bucs.  They won 43-28 in Tampa last year with 461 total yards, and they won 34-20 at home earlier this season behind 516 total yards.  The Bucs rank last in the NFL in total defense and won’t offer much resistance tonight either.  The Bucs are a mess at 4-9 on the season and haven’t had a bye all year.  They are tired, they are beat up, and they stand no chance of keeping this game close against Atlanta.  They are going to be without 2 of their best players on defense in DT Gerald McCoy and LB Lavonte David.  Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.  The Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta. 

7* NFL Total of the Year on Cowboys/Raiders UNDER 45.5 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys have been missing Ezekiel Elliott offensively.  They scored 9 or fewer points in 3 consecutive games without him.  They get him back next week, but until then their offense will continue to struggle moving the football.  Their defense got a big boost with the return of Sean Lee, and their numbers with and without him have been staggering.  They held the Redskins to 14 points two weeks ago and the Giants to just 10 points last week.  The Raiders are lacking offensive punch, and now they’re without their best receiver in Amari Cooper, who re-injured his ankle in a 15-26 loss to the Chiefs last week.  I think both teams will struggle to score points tonight.  Both teams will lean on the run, which will keep the clock moving.  Dallas is 11-1 UNDER in road games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 17-6 in Cowboys last 23 road games, and 5-1 in their last six games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games overall, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Oregon/Boise State ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -7 

The Key: Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 51.2 points in games Justin Herbert started this season, while going 1-4 and scoring 15.0 points in games he was sidelined.  That’s all you need to know about this game.  The Ducks will hang a big number on the Boise State Broncos, and they won’t be able to keep up. Take Oregon. 

7* Broncos/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos actually have the No. 1 defense in the NFL based on a number of different statistical categories.  That is the difference in this game as the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, giving up 26.4 points and 375.3 yards per game.  And the Colts have one of the worst offenses as well, averaging just 16.3 points and 290.7 yards per game.  This is a complete mismatch, and even this stagnant Denver offense should be able to get going against this weak Colts defense tonight.  The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or fewer in 3 straight games.  Take Denver. 

7* Patriots/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +12 

The Key: The Patriots will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here.  They also have to play a team they just beat by 18 points 2 weeks ago.  And they have their ‘game of the year’ against the Steelers on deck next week.  This couldn’t be a worse situation for the Patriots.  I think their 6-game ATS winning streak comes to an end Monday night.  They are being asked to lay too many points in Miami.  The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  The Dolphins have won 2 of their last 3 home meetings with the Patriots outright.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL *Blowout* Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers -6 

The Key: The Redskins have nothing to play for after losing 14-38 to the Cowboys last week.  It was their last stand, and now they’re done.  And they’ve been hit so hard by injuries that they never had a chance anyway.  The Chargers have everything to play for as they are tied for first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders.  They have won 6 of their last 8 and Philip Rivers has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the six wins.  He’s playing at a high level, and he’s backed by a defense that is great against the pass and getting to the quarterback.  That makes this a bad matchup for the Redskins and Kirk Cousins.  The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games during Week 14.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are ‘all in’ tonight as they can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs.  Look for them to get the job done at home against the Saints, who have beaten up on such a soft schedule of late.  The one time they stepped up on class?  They lost 20-26 on the road to the Rams two weeks ago only after scoring a touchdown in the closing seconds to make the score look closer than was.  Now this is another step up game for the Saints.  The Falcons get two starting cornerbacks back this week from injury, and that’s going to be huge for them.  The Saints are still banged up everywhere, especially on defense.  Bets on home favorites after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team 51% to 60% playing a winning team are 28-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Atlanta. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals +6 

The Key: The season is on the line for the Cincinnati Bengals tonight.  At 5-6 they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.  The Steelers are 9-2 and can afford a loss now.  Because they host the Patriots in a couple weeks, they can lose this game and win that one and still be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  I believe this line is way off as the Steelers were only 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals at home in their first meeting, and now they are 6-point road favorites in the second meeting.  That’s an 8.5-point adjustment.  And the Steelers have recent 3-point wins over both the Colts and Packers, so it’s not like they are playing at an extremely high level.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3 

The Key: This game is all about the matchup.  The Ravens have 14 sacks over the past month and have forced 13 turnovers in their past 4 games.  Mathew Stafford has been sacked 10 times in the past 3 weeks and they are starting to turn the ball over more.  Stafford is nursing an ankle injury that will have him far from full strength.  And there are injuries along the offensive line that are going to allow the Ravens to get after him for 4 quarters.  The Vikings put up 30 points and 408 total yards on this Detroit defense last week, and I think Joe Flacco and the offense will do enough to support their dominant defense in this one.  Bet on home favorites that have won 2 of their last 3 games coming in, who are winning 51% to 60% of their games and playing another winning team are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Akron/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +21 

The Key: The Toledo Rockets cannot be 3-touchdown favorites in the MAC Championship Game.  They beat Akron 48-21 at home earlier this season for a 27-point victory.  But the Zips have improved since then and this game will be on a neutral field, and they’ll want revenge from that defeat.  They also have a more electric quarterback running the show now in freshman Kato Nelson, who has thrown 6 TD’s against 2 INT while leading the Zips to the MAC East title down the stretch.  He also adds a dual-threat element with 167 rushing yards and a score.  MAC dogs of 12 or more in championship games are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 tries.  The Zips are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron. 

7* Stanford/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on USC -3.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans have had 2 weeks to get ready for Stanford after receiving their bye last week.  The Cardinal are on a short week after a tough game against Notre Dame in which they trailed into the 4th quarter Saturday night before the Fighting Irish gave the game away with 3 turnovers.  The situation favors the Trojans, who have already beaten the Cardinal 42-24 while racking up over 600 yards of total offense against them in their first meeting this year.  The Cardinal are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take USC.