Sports Picks & Predictions

4* NFL Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Seahawks -

I'll gladly back Seattle laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Giants. Prior to New York's surprising win at Denver last week on Monday Night Football they were expected to be more than a touchdown underdog in this game. I just didn't see enough from the Giants offense to think this team is going to be able transform into a better team after losing their top two wide outs in Beckham Jr and Marshall. 

It was the Broncos mistakes on offense that won them that game, as Denver turned it over 3 times, including an interception that the Giants defense returned for a score. They also had drives of 30 yards or less for two of their three field goals. Broncos basically handed them 13 points and they only scored 23. They had just 266 total yards and 12 first downs. 

This is the time of year where Seattle turns it up a notch and that defense should have no problem keeping NY in check, as the Seahawks have only allowed more than 18 points once this season. Russell Wilson and the offense should be able to provide enough fire-power coming off a bye to win this by double-digits. Take Seattle! 

4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins -

I believe now is the time to sell on the Jets after covering a big number at home against the Patriots, which was their 4th straight cover. New York might be 3-3, but they aren't a good team. They have a road win over the winless Browns and home wins over Miami and Jacksonville. They laid it on the Dolphins in Week 3, beating them 20-6. I think they are going to have a tough time getting up for this one. They are in a big letdown spot after facing New England, who is the one team they want to beat more than any other. 

Miami finally showed some life offensively in the 2nd half of last week's 20-17 win at Atlanta, scoring all 20 in the final two periods. If the offense gets going, this team is going to be one to watch out of. The Dolphins haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game this season and that includes their 20-0 loss to the Saints in London. I think that unit will take it personal here against the Jets at home. 

If Miami's offense shows up like I think it will, this could be over in a hurry. Either way they should be able to win here by at least a TD. Dolphins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 revenging a road loss, while the Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing a division opponent. Take Miami! 

4* NFL Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Colts +

This one is begging for you to take the Jaguars laying only a field goal on the road against the Colts. Indy isn't a team the public wants nothing to do with and certainly aren't going to want to back them only catching 3-points. That has me backing Indianapolis in this one. 

The Colts are just 2-4 with their only wins coming against the Browns and 49ers, but have been competitive in every game outside of the opening week loss to the Rams. They lost 18-46 to Seattle, but that was a 1-score game with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. They also lost by 14 last week at Tennessee in a game they led by double-digits in the 2nd half. 

People are getting excited about Jacksonville. While they aren't as bad as they have been, they still are a serious threat in the AFC. The defense has it's moments, but the offense has been really bad. Blake Bortles is doing just enough to not get benched. The rushing attack is great, but you have to be able to throw the ball with success to be taken seriously in this league, especially on the road. 

Colts have gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are 8-1 in their last 9 after a game where they were outgained by 100+ yards. Take Indianapolis! 

5* NFL Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +

The books are just begging for you to take Carolina laying only a field goal and the public is taking the bait. You have to take Chicago in this spot and there's plenty of reason to like the Bears. Chicago played the Falcons tough at home in Week 1 and then upset the Steelers at home in Week 3. Both of those came with Mike Glennon at quarterback and he was hurting the team more than he was helping it. 

I really like the decision to go to Trubisky and while he hasn't put up huge numbers, he's done a good job protecting the football. That's what the Bears need, as they got a very underrated defense and one of the league's best rushing attacks. Carolina strength is their defense, but it will be missing it's biggest piece on that side of the ball in linebacker Luke Kuechly. Not having him changes a lot and I think it's enough here for Chicago to win this game. 

The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog of 7 points or less and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games with a total set between 35.5 and 42 points. Take Chicago! 

5* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +

I really like the value here with Oakland catching points at home in a prime time Thursday night matchup. It can't be underestimated how tough it is on the road team in these Thursday game and this a long trip out West for the Chiefs. 

Kansas City has been praised as the league's best team, but looked nothing like it in last week's home loss to the Steelers, where they couldn't even get a first down in the 1st half. It has them overvalued here by the books. 

Oakland has lost 4 straight and are now just 2-4 on the season. A loss here and there hopes of making the playoffs take a huge hit. This is every bit a "must-win" game for the home team

Expect to see the Raiders lay everything on the line and you can count on a rowdy and loud crowd here, as these two fan bases hate the opposing team. The home team has a big edge in these rivalry games and I look for the Raiders to save their season here and pull out the win. Take Oakland! 

3* Colts/Titans MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Colts +

I like the value here with the Colts catching over a touchdown against the Titans on Monday Night Football. Tennessee will have starting quarterback Marcus Mariota, but I don't think that hamstring is 100% just yet. One of things that makes Mariota so good is his mobility and without it I think the Titans offense struggles to do enough here to pull away from a Colts team that has continued to play hard without Andrew Luck. 

The Colts offense was put in a difficult spot to start the season, having to trade for Jacoby Brissett right before the year started. They looked a lot better last time out against the 49ers, piling on 447 yards of total offense and 25 first downs. I think this unit will continue to play well going forward, especially against a sub-par defense like the Titans, which ranks in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. 

Tennessee is a miserable 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against other AFC teams, 2-13 ATS in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs a team that allows 24+ points/game. Take Indianapolis! 

4* Giants/Broncos ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +

The betting public is lining up to take the Broncos here at home on Sunday Night Football against a injury-plagued Giants team and it's resulted in a drastically inflated line that has created too much value on New York to pass up. 

The total here is just 39, so oddsmakers are expecting points to be hard to come by for both teams. That only adds value to this double-digit spread and the Giants ability to keep this close enough to cover. 

As bad as it looks for the Giants with all the injuries at wide receiver and the poor offensive line play, this team has found a way to remain competitive in their surprising 0-5 start. Eli Manning is no longer in his prime, but still an above-average QB that will make some plays here regardless of who he has to work with. 

The bigger key here is the Broncos don't have the offensive fire-power to be laying this many points. Denver has scored just 16 in their last 2 games. They won their last game against the Raiders by a final of 16-10 and the week before lost to the Bills 16-26. New York still has a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball and I expect the Giants stop unit to show up in a big way here in a prime time game with no body giving them a chance to win this game. Take New York! 

4* Lions/Saints NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Saints -

I don't feel the Saints are getting the respect they deserve here at home coming off their bye. New Orleans started off 0-2, but that wasn't a big surprise. They had to open the season on the road on Monday Night Football against the Vikings and they caught the Patriots, who were coming off that ugly loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and NE had extra time to prepare. The Saints have responded in a big way. First winning in convincing fashion on the road against a very good Carolina team 34-13 and then most recently a 20-0 shutout win over the Dolphins in London. 

A big reason for the quick turnaround has been the play of a vastly improved defense and given all the young talent they possess on that side of the ball, there's every reason to think they can keep playing well. The key here is they catch the Lions at the right time. Detroit is banged up and it starts with quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is dealing with an ankle injury. He's listed as probable, but his mobility figures to be hampered. At the same time, the offensive line for Detroit is   a mess right now. They have given up a ridiculous 12 sacks over their last 2 games (6 each) and figure to struggle again. 

It wasn't that long ago the Saints had one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and there's a big emphasis on turning the Superdome back to a place where opposing teams fear coming to play. 

New Orleans is an impressive 12-4 ATS under head coach Sean Payton after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games and 30-10 under Payton vs high-scoring teams that come in averaging 24+ ppg. The Saints are also an impressive 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a bye and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a cover last time out. Take New Orleans! 

5* NFL Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins -

I'm not the least bit concerned about laying this big number with Washington at home in Week 6. This is not only an ideal spot to back the Redskins, but also a perfect situation to fade the 49ers. 

Washington comes in at just 2-2, but there two losses have come against the Eagles and Chiefs. Two teams who are currently a combined 10-1 on the season. The Redskins were right there with a chance to win both. The last time out was a 20-29 loss at KC on Monday Night Football, a game they likely would have won had Dotson been able to hold on to a TD grab late in the 4th quarter. Taking that defeat into the bye will have the Redskins chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this one. 

As for the 49ers, they quick turnaround some where hoping for in the first year under new head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't happened. San Francisco has started out 0-5 and while they have been competitive in their last 4, they are in a dreaded spot here playing their third straight game on the road. Making it even harder on the 49ers is the fact that they are a west coast team having to travel across the country for an early start time against the Redskins. I think they struggle to show up for this one and expect this to turn into a blowout early. 

San Francisco has struggled over the last 3 years against good offensive teams, who average 5.65 or more yards/play. The 49ers are just 3-11 ATS vs these teams and have lost these contests by an average of 12.7 ppg. Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Washington! 

5* NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings +

Minnesota shouldn't be a dog at home to the Packers, but since Green Bay is such a public team and off 3 straight wins and two consecutive covers, including that big comeback win last week against the Cowboys, this line has been inflated with the books knowing the public will continue to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers no matter the cost. 

Another reason this line is what it is, is because starting quarterback Sam Bradford has been ruled out for this game. The thing is, Case Keenum has played extremely well in replace of Bradford and really sparked the offense once he came in for an injured Bradford last week against the Bears. Keenum is completing 65% of his passes and most importantly has taken care of the football with a 4-0 TD-INT ratio. Keenum gets to take on a banged up Packers secondary that is without starting safety Morgan Burnett and corner Kevin King. Fellow starting corner Davon House is also questionable. 

Another player that has stepped up on offense is Jerick McKinnon, who has taken over for the injured Dalvin Cook. McKinnon put up 95 yards on 16 attempts against a good Bears run defense and is averaging 4.7 yards/carry (Cook was averaging 4.8 ypc). He should be able to keep it going here against a Green Bay defense that ranks 22nd against the run, allowing 121.4 ypg. 

I also like this Minnesota defense against the Packers offense, which continues to deal with injuries on the offensive line. Rodgers will make some plays, but with the running game figuring to struggle against this stout Vikings front 7, I think the Vikings stop unit makes enough plays to win this one outright. 

Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games with a 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record. Take Minnesota! 

5* Eagles/Panthers TNF Vegas BEST BET on Panthers -

I really like the value here with Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Eagles. Both of these teams are off to a strong start, as each is sitting at 4-1. I'm just not sold on Philadelphia being the cream of the crop in the NFC, as they have padded their record over the last 3 weeks against the Giants, Charger and Cardinals, who are all off to miserable starts. 

Carson Wentz is getting a ton of praise right now, but he's about to face his toughest challenge of the season in this Carolina defense. The Panthers are rock solid against both the run and the pass. They are 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. Wentz is also a guy that will try to force the football into tight spots and I think he has a couple costly turnovers here. 

The Panthers offense got off to a slow start, as Newton just wasn't right to start the season with that shoulder injury. He looks to have it back to near 100% and has really taken off the last two games, throwing for more than 300 yards on the road against the Patriots and Lions. It won't be as easy against the Eagles defense, but I'm confident he will make enough plays here to get the win and cover. 

When Carolina gets rolling they tend to keep covering. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS under Rivera when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. They are also an impressive 32-13 ATS under Rivera after playing their previous game on the road. Eagles on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away from home. Take Carolina! 

3* Vikings/Bears MNF ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Bears +

Chicago is not getting near the respect they deserve here at home against a division rival. Even with the Vikings getting back their starting QB in Sam Bradford and the Bears turning to rookie Mitchell Trubisky. 

While Bradford is an upgrade over backup Case Keenum, I don't think it's as significant as people think. The even bigger issue is the Vikings offense took a major hit with the loss of rookie running back Dalvin Cook. He was averaging 4.8 yards/carry with 4 runs of 20+ yards. Keenum has the next best average at a mere 3.0 yards/carry. Backups Latavius Murray (2.7 ypc) and Jerick McKinnon (2.6 ypc) are both under 3.0 yards.

That's going to let Chicago's defense focus on taking away the passing game and putting pressure on Bradford. To a lot of people's surprise, the Bears come in ranked 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 306.3 ypg, including the 8th ranks run defense. 

What's really killed the Bears in their 1-3 start was the play of Glennon at QB. I absolutely love the move to Trubisky, who showed some real positive signs in the preseason. He can't be any worse than what Glennon was providing the offense and if he plays well this unit could take off with those two talented backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. 

I'll gladly take the points here, but I fully expect the Bears to win this game outright. Take Chicago! 

4* Chiefs/Texans SNF 'NO BRAINER' on Texans +

Big time value here with the Texans getting points at home in prime time on Sunday Night Football.  The Chiefs are getting a ton of love from the books right now, as they are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and are a perfect 4-0 ATS. The public has fallen in love with this team and now is the time to look the other way. 

If Houston was still starting Tom Savage, this wouldn't be a play. Deshaun Watson has finally got the Texans offense producing at the level needed to be taken seriously. The last few years the defense has had to carry this team. Now they are playing more complimentary football and shouldn't be a dog on their home field. 

Not only are the Chiefs overvalued right now, this is a bad spot for KC, who is playing on short rest after the big win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football. Note the Chiefs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on Sunday after MNF. 

KC is also dealing with some big injuries. Three key guys who were questionable are out. That includes two interior starting linemen (not good against this Texans front) and one of their best pass rushers in Dee Ford. Ford is a big loss for a defense that is already playing without All-Pro safety Eric Berry. This defense has some holes and will allow teams to move the ball on them. I just see enough big plays by Watson and the offense at home. Take Houston! 

3* NFL Situational ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Bengals -

We are getting great value here with Cincinnati as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Bills on Sunday. On one side we have a Buffalo team that is way overvalued right now after back to back wins over the Broncos and Falcons. The most recent coming as a 8-point dog in Atlanta. The Bills have quickly went from a team the public was looking to fade to one they want to back. 

As for the Bengals, this team couldn't have looked much worse in the first two weeks of the season, as the offense failed to score a single touchdown in those two games and both of them were at home. The thing is, the talent is there and they have looked a heck of a lot better since firing their OC. They really should have won in Green Bay in Week 3 and last week cruised to a 24-point win on the road against a division rival in the Browns. 

Defense has really saved the Bills in their 3-1 start and I think they have a tough time here off that huge road win over the Falcons and they have to be running on fumes with this their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Buffalo also lost a key piece to their defense in linebacker Ramon Hunter and could e without starting corner E.J. Gaines here.

Cincinnati's defense has been playing great and should have no trouble stopping this Bills attack. Bengals should have the much easier time moving the ball and simply aren't getting enough respect here at home. Take Cincinnati! 

5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Panthers +

I love the value here with Carolina as a road dog against the Lions. The Panthers were already playing Super Bowl caliber defense early on and they got the offense rolling last week in their 33-30 upset win over the Patriots as a 9-point dog. I look for Carolina to keep that momentum going against the Lions. 

Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after totaling 350 or more total yards and I think we see a big game here out of Cam Newton after all the negative publicity he's received from his comments in the media. 

This Detroit defense has been very fortunate early on, as they have forced 11 turnovers in 4 games, 3 time recording 3 or more. On the flip side, they have only turned it over 2 times. I'm willing to be that starts to even out. I really think we see some turnovers by the offense in this one, as the Panthers are too talented and couldn't be more due after not forcing a single turnover in their last 3 games. Backing this up is the fact that the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams that are forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game. 

Detroit is stil just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous contest. Take Carolina! 

4* Redskins/Chiefs MNF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Redskins +

I like the value here with Washington catching a touchdown against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Kansas City is getting a ton of respect early on and considered by some to be the best in the NFL, at least in the popular media rankings like ESPN. Oddsmakers aren't nearly as high on this team, who going into Week 4 were tied with 4 other teams with the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl. 

I'm not saying the Chiefs aren't a good team, just that this is too many points for them to be laying against a quality opponent like the Redskins. Washington is 2-1 with their only loss coming to division rival Philadelphia, who is off to a strong 3-1 start. Their win at the Rams looks a heck of a lot better after LA just knocked off the Cowboys in Dallas. They also completely dominated the Raiders a week ago, beating Oakland 27-10 with a ridiculous 472 to 128 edge in total yards. 

The Chiefs defense is one that's going to let Washington move the football up and down the field. Kansas City ranks a mere 20th against the run and 25th against the pass and are without one of their best players in safety Eric Berry. If Cousins can take care of the football and convert a couple red zone drives with touchdowns and not field goals, they could win this game outright.

Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Washington! 

3* NFL No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Chargers -

I just think we are getting too much value here with San Diego at basically a pick'em on their home field. Not to mention the Chargers are 0-3 and there's no doubt a feeling in the locker room that this is a must win game. We are going to get the best this team has to offer and this team could very easily be 2-1 and should be at worst 1-2. 

The Eagles are a team that I think is growing on the public and they have started out 2-1. The thing is, that game against Washington could have went either way in Week 1 and they won last week on a 61-yard field goal as time expired to be the Giants. That New York team was 0-2 and could barely do anything offensively coming into that game. 

This Eagles secondary is still without top corner Ronald Darby and have been hit with some injuries at safety and one of their best players, Fletcher Cox, is questionable. Philip Rivers can have success against this defense. I also think the Chargers defense can make life tough for the Eagles, who lost a big part of their offense in running back Darren Sproles. This is also a long way out west for Philadelphia to travel and this is definitely a flat spot. Take San Diego! 

3* BEST BET on Cardinals - 

I think we are getting great value here with the Cardinals laying less than a touchdown at home against the 49ers. I know San Francisco has a few extra days to prepare and everything looks broken for Arizona after losing David Johnson. The key here is the 49ers aren't a very good team. They are one of thew few that just don't have the talent to win a lot of games. 

While they kept it close against the Rams that game wasn't as close as it ended up. That's also the only team they have beat the previous two seasons. They lost by 20 at home in Week 1 against an awful Panthers offense and a little too much love for keeping it close against a Seattle team that always starts out slow. Arizona is going to be pissed off after losing like they did against the Cowboys and I just don't see them playing poorly here in this spot. Reminds me a lot of the spot with Chicago on Thursday, where they looked like they could compete with Green Bay (lot of injuries) and were completely outclassed. Take Arizona! 

4* Steelers/Ravens AFC North 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Ravens +

I think this is a great spot to jump on Baltimore, as the perception here couldn't be much worse after their 44-7 loss to the Jaguars. The Ravens didn't show up to play and you have to wonder if they overlooked a Jaguars team that has been so bad for so long and just might have turned the corner. Baltimore definitely didn't play like the same team that started out 2-0, especially on defense. 

That plane ride home from London had to be the worst. I expect to see a pissed off Ravens team, who isn't going to take lightly to the fact that they have the same record as their division rivals, yet they are home dogs. While the Steelers are 2-1, they haven't played great and just lost to a Bears team that looked awful on Thursday Night Football against the Packers. They were in a dog fight Week 1 at Cleveland, who was starting a rookie QB. They won by 17 at home against the Vikings, but they learned last minute that Bradford wasn't going to and had to go with Case Keenum (hard to get prepared for a start on that short of notice). 

Flacco wasn't good against the Jaguars last week, but I think he's going to show up here against the Steelers, who I think aren't as good on defense as people think. They have just had it easy going so far with 3 games against Kizer, Keenum and Glennon. 

As for the Steelers offense, it's no secret that they aren't the same offensive team on the road as they are at home. Most of that coming from poor play from Ben Roethlisberger. I see him struggling here against a very good Ravens defense and Baltimore winning this game outright. Take Baltimore! 

4* NFL Situational ATS 'GAME OF THE WEEK'  on Panthers +

The Patriots were very fortunate to win at home last week against the Texans, scoring from 25 yards out with just 23 seconds to play for a 36-33 win. A great comeback, but that's not how it's gone in the past with Belichick against a rookie QB. He usually makes them look bad. While Deshaun Watson threw 2 picks, he also threw for 301 yards and 2 scores and rushed for 41 yards. 

This Patriots defense didn't look good in the preseason, was torched by Alex Smith and the Chiefs in Week 1 at home in prime time, was okay against the Saints and just gave up 33 points to the Texans. Houston scored 13 points and had just 266 total yards the previous week against the Bengals and 7 in their Week 1 loss to the Jaguars at home. 

As bad as Cam Newton and the Panthers have looked this season, you have to think they are going to have some success here against this defense. I'm not sure what happened last week against the Saints, but this Carolina defense was playing lights out the first two weeks and have a ton of talent on that side of the ball. They are going to be locked in here off that ugly showing and a chance to take on the GOAT. Given what we have seen so far from New England, would it really be a surprise if they lost this game? The books are still inflating the Pats line after they owned the books last year. Take the Panthers! 

3* Bears/Packers TNF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Bears +

I like the value here with Chicago catching over a touchdown on the road against a banged up Packers team. I know Aaron Rodgers has had a lot of success against the Bears in his career, especially at home, but he's going into this one with his top 5 offensive tackles not expected to be available. Starters David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are both listed as doubtful and their top 3 backups are all on IR. Regardless of what the Packers do, that offensive line figures to have a very difficult time blocking. 

As good as Rodgers is, he can only be so effective when he doesn't have time to throw. Keep in mind last week he was sacked 6 times by the Bengals. Chicago's defensive front has been impressive, as they are 8th against the run (83.7 ypg). They are also 12th overall in total defense. 

I know the offense hasn't been great under Mike Glennon, but I like their 1-2 punch out of the backfield with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The two have combined for 354 yards and nearly 5.0 yards/carry on the season. Cohen is also a big time threat in the passing game, as he actually leads Chicago with 20 receptions for 126 yards. 

Green Bay also has some injuries concerns on defense. Linebacker Nick Perry and defensive tackle Mike Daniels are both questionable and corner Davon House has been ruled out. 

Lets also give the Bears some credit. They hung with Atlanta in a 6-point home loss in Week 1, lost 29-7 at Tampa Bay, but were more competitive than the final score and last week they didn't just hang around with the Steelers, they beat them outright. I also think it's a low-scoring game, which adds even more value to Chicago at this price. Take the Bears! 

5* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Cardinals +

I like the value here with Arizona catching a field goal, plus the hook at home against the Cowboys.   Arizona was able to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start with an ugly 16-13 win at Indianapolis in Week 2. While that's not what you would expect from Arizona against a bad Colts team, the Cardinals have really not been a good road team the last few years. They are much better at home and I think that's where the value is here, as this will be the Cardinals home opener on Monday Night Football.

We are also getting value because of how big a public team Dallas is. Even after an awful showing last week at Denver, the public is pounding the Cowboys and will continue to do so. I wouldn't be shocked if this line started to move and would still recommend taking Arizona as a dog of any price here. 

The Cardinals run defense has been on point early on, as they held the Lions to just 82 yards on 27 attempts and the Colts to 75 on 29 attempts. I don't expect them to shutdown the Cowboys rushing attack, but I do think they slow them down and that all you have to do to give this Dallas offense problems. As for the Cowboys defense, we saw what Trevor Siemian did to them last week and would expect similar numbers here from Carson Palmer. 

Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 350 or more yards in their previous game. Cowboys are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played on Monday Night Football. Take Arizona! 

3* Raiders/Redskins SNF 'HEAVY HITTER' on Redskins +

The Raiders are one of the biggest publicly backed teams going right now and I love fading the public in these Sunday Night games, as we know we are getting a good price on the other side. That's certainly the case here with Washington as a 3.5-point home dog. 

Washington was better than the final score in their opener against the Eagles, as they actually had the ball driving for the game-winning score and lost a fumble that was returned for a TD and lost by 13. They responded very well in Week 2 at LA, taking down what I think is a very improved Rams team. I expect a big time effort here with them getting no love at home in a prime time game and could also see the Raiders coming in with a bit of a big head after that 25-point blowout win against the Jets. 

I still have a lot of concerns with that Oakland defense and that really makes them hard to trust as a road favorite. Let's also not forget how fortunate this team was in close games last year. Washington is a solid 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Take Washington! 

4* NFL No Doubt ATS 'BLOWOUT' on Bengals +

The Bengals have looked as bad as any team to start the season and I believe it has them way undervalued here as a big road dog against the Packers. Cincinnati fired their offensive coordinator and simply can't be as bad as they have been on offense going forward. The Bengals red zone efficiency is in uncharted territory and is going to improve. 

Green Bay gets a lot of love because of Aaron Rodgers, but I see a lot of concerns with this team. They got a ton of key guys injured and are not putting up near the offensive numbers you would expect given they got Rodgers. They didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the 3rd quarter in their opener against the Seahawks and had just 10-points against the Falcons before adding on a couple late scores with the game basically out of reach. 

While the offense has struggled, Cincinnati's defense has played well to start the year. I think they give the Packers trouble here. We also know we are getting a desperate Bengals team that doesn't want to start out 0-3. I don't know that they can avoid that, but I do expect them to keep this close. Take Cincinnati! 

3* NFL Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG'  on Bears +

I really like the value here with Chicago catching over a touchdown at home against the Steelers. Pittsburgh comes in 2-0 and are a big public team, which has this line inflated. What people continue to overlook with this Steelers team is they don't play as well on the road. Most notably quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. If you look back to Week 1, they barely held on to beat the Browns 21-18 in Cleveland and that was with the Browns spotting them a touchdown on blocked punt. 

Chicago got rolled last week by the Bucs on the scoreboard, but it was a more evenly matched game than the 29-7 final would indicate. The total yardage was nearly identical with Tampa Bay at 311 and the Bears at 310. The difference being Chicago finishing with a -3 turnover margin. We saw the Bears keep it within a TD at home against the Falcons in Week 1 and expect them to do the same here. 

This has historically been a good spot to back the Bears, as they are 38-22 ATS in their last 60 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses and have actually won these games on average by nearly 3 ppg. Steelers are 6-15 ATS under Tomlin in road games in the first month of the season, while Bears head coach John Fox is 18-4 as a head coach when his team trailed in the previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Take Chicago! 

5* AFC Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Bills +

I really like the value with Buffalo catching over a field goal at home against the Broncos. This is a big time letdown spot for Denver, who has started out 2-0 and off that huge win at home over the Cowboys.

The Bills on the other hand are just 1-1 and not a team the public wants a whole lot to do with, but they have played well early on. Buffalo handled the Jets at home in rather convincing fashion and despite an offense that couldn't move the ball, hung in their with the Panthers on the road in week 2. 

The Bills managed just 176 total yards in last week's game against Carolina, but that's actually a positive when it comes to covering the spread this week. Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a performance where they totaled less than 250 yards. 

Denver on the other hand is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win by more than 14 points and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Bills. Take Buffalo! 

4* Jaguars/Ravens NFL London ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Jags +

I like the value here with the Jaguars in Sunday's early game in London. These are two very similar teams that want to run the football and let their defense do the work. Both have been really strong defensively and I just think the 3.5-points is too good to pass up here.

Baltimore has looked great to start, but let's not overreact to beating up on a Bengals team that might have the worse offensive line in the NFL and taking down the Browns at home. Turnovers have really aided both wins for the Ravens, who have a ridiculous 10 takeaways (8 interceptions) in two games.

What's getting overlooked is the Ravens offense hasn't been good and this team will struggle to win if they don't get those turnovers. Baltimore was actually outgained by the Browns last week and only had a 268-221 edge in total yards in their 20-0 win over the Bengals. Another thing here with Baltimore is the injuries are really starting to pile up and they will be without several key pieces for this one. 

Ravens are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 2 straight games in which they held their opponent to 99 yards or less. We also find a strong system in play on the Jaguars. Teams that had a turnover margin of -1/game or worse the previous year are an impressive 24-8 (75%) the last 10 seasons against the spread the next year in conference games. Take Jacksonville! 

5* Rams/49ers NFC West 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on 49ers +3

The public is all over the Rams in this one, but I really like the value here with San Francisco a division dog. The 49ers have had a miserable start to the season. They got blowout at home by the Panthers in Week 1 23-3 and then blew a lead late in a 9-12 loss at Seattle. The thing is, those are two of the NFC's best teams and two of the elite defense in the NFL. 

The Rams looked great in their opener against the Colts, but so will a lot of teams. They came back the next week and lost at home to the Redskins, getting outgained by more than 50 yards and totaled just 14 first downs to Washington's 21. I look for the 49ers defense to really make things tough on Jared Goff and this Rams offense. 

You also have to keep in mind that San Francisco seems to always play well at home in these prime time games. A lot of you will likely remember last year's week 1 opener on MNF, which they won 28-0. Rams have gone 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the NFC and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. 49ers have covered 4 straight against division opponents. Take San Francisco! 

3* Packers/Falcons SNF ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Falcons -

The big question with the Falcons coming into the year was whether or not they would suffer a similar letdown to the Panthers after losing the Super Bowl. Carolina went from being 15-1 and making the Super Bowl in 2015 to finishing 6-10 and last in the NFC South. Barely squeaking by on the road against a Bears team no one thinks is going to be any good likely has people second-guessing this team. On the flip side, Green Bay is getting all kinds of love after taking down the Seahawks.

The thing is, any win on the road, is a good win. Especially when it’s Week 1 and the home crowd is actually into it, even for the bottom-tier teams. Now it’s the Falcons turn to feed off of that energy in their first regular season game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. With this being a night game, that only turns up the intensity that much more.

I know Green Bay will be out for revenge here, but I also see Atlanta being extremely motivated to show everyone that they aren’t to fall in the footsteps of other Super Bowl losers. Most importantly we are getting a very favorable line with them only laying a field goal at home.

I see some signs for concern with the Packers. Sure the defense played great, but a lot of their success on that side of the ball had to do with Seattle’s awful excuse for an offensive line. The offense only managed 17 points and 7 of those were gift-wrapped off a turnover inside their own 10-yard line. Let’s also not overlook the injuries Green Bay is dealing with on the o-line, right tackle Bryan Bulaga is questionable with an ankle injury and I would be surprised if he plays.

Another thing with Atlanta’s win over the Bears is the offense still managed to put up 23 points, despite having to settle for 3 field goals. Not to mention they got next to nothing out of the running game and Julio Jones had just 66 of Matt Ryan’s 321 yards through the air. Good chance we see a little more success on the ground and a much bigger game from Julio. 

It’s also worth noting that the Falcons are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games in the first 2 weeks of the regular season and are 7-3 ATS over the last 3 years off a road win. Take Atlanta! 

4* NFL No Doubt ATS 'BLOWOUT' on Jets +

The betting public loves this new-look Raiders team and will back them against most teams regardless of the line. The Jets on the other hand might be the most anti-public team out there right now. I believe that has created some big time value with New York catching two touchdowns. I don't care who the opponent is, 2 TD's is a lot in the NFL. 

You also have to factor in how being a 14-point favorite impacts the focus of the favorite. It would be really easy for Oakland to overlook this game, as they know they are the better team. Not to mention they come in off a huge road win to open the season on the road against the Titans and could find it difficult to not peak ahead to next week's road game at Washington on Sunday Night Football. I think that lack of focus will show up on defense more than anything and that should allow the Jets to hang around and keep this close. 

Oakland is just 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 after covering the spread in their last game and a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing record. Take New York! 

5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Saints +

After a close look into this one, I think this line is just too high to pass up on New Orleans at home against a Patriots team that is dealing with some serious injuries on both sides of the ball. I don't think it's out of the question that New Orleans wins here outright.  

New England had the looks of the best team in the NFL coming into the season, but then they lost arguably their most important offensive player not named Tom Brady in wide out Julian Edelman for the season, who was by far Brady's favorite target. To make matters worse, wide out Malcolm Mitchell, who shined as a rookie was put on IR and Danny Amendola is questionable. Even with the extra days to prepare, there's just not going to be that chemistry with the receivers that really make the Pats offense so good. 

Defensively New England is expected to be without the one guy they really don't have the ability to replace in linebacker Dont'a Hightower. Just look at what the Chiefs did to this defense once he went out in the 2nd half. Now they got to face a real QB in Drew Brees on his home turf, where he's torched any and every defense that has visited the Superdome. 

With how bad a shape the Pats are defensively, I just don't see New England running away with this thing. I see a one possession game that could go either way. Take New Orleans! 

5* Chargers/Broncos MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Chargers +

The Chargers are a team that I'm high on coming into the year, while the Broncos are one that I have huge concerns with. I'm going to take the points with Los Angeles in this AFC West clash. The reason Denver was able to win 9 games last year was their defense and while they will still rely on that side of the ball, they don't look as strong defensively in 2017. 

Some of that is the guys they let go like safety T.J. Ward. More than anything it's the injuries that have piled up in the offseason. They won't have the lakes of Shane Ray, who was penciled in as the starter for DeMarcus Ware. They have guys like Aqib Talib and Dereck Wolfe that are playing at less than 100%. 

Los Angeles is without their prized rookie wide out Mike Williams, but have a ton of weapons on the offensive side of the ball and a legit QB in veteran Philip Rivers. Denver's offense is a mess, as they weren't expecting Trevor Siemian to still be their starter (had hoped it would Paxton Lynch, but he's not looked the part). Keep in mind the Broncos were in the bottom 4 last year in drives that went 3 and out. They couldn't run the football (27th) and were horrible in the red-zone (26th).

Even with what will be a hostile environment, I see the Chargers having the easier time putting points on the board, making them the easy play catching a field goal. Take Los Angeles! 

3* Giants/Cowboys SNF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Cowboys -

I like the value here with Dallas to win here at home by more than a field goal against the Giants. The Cowboys got a huge boost here with the fact that Elliot is going to get to play no matter what happens with the rest of his 6-game suspension this year. This is also a game that Dallas couldn't be happier to get out of the way, as they have been licking their chops for another shot at these Giants. 

New York handed Dallas their first two losses of the season last year. The first being the season opener on SNF, which they got a late TD to sneak out a 20-19 win. Keep in mind that was Prescott's first ever start in the NFL, same thing with Elliot. The other was a 10-7 win late in the year where Dallas was riding an 11-game winning streak. 

No question the Giants defense matches up well with Dallas, but I'm expecting the Cowboys offense to be even better this year (when Elliott is playing). Prescott and Elliott were so good last year, people forget it's year two that these young players really make a jump. Let's also not forget that offense had a less than 100% Dez Bryant for a good chunk of the season. I look for Dallas to use that elite offensive line to wear down the Giants defense and keep Eli on the sidelines. 

I also don't think the Dallas defense gets enough credit. A big reason for that is the Cowboys down't have any big names on that side of the ball. They led the league in run defense (83.5 ypg) and were 5th overall in scoring defense (19.1 ppg). Look for this unit to surprise again in 2017. Take Dallas! 

5* NFL Week 1 'GAME OF THE YEAR' on Bears +

I think the value here is with Chicago catching a touchdown on their home field. The public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with the Bears against a Falcons team that they just saw play in the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers know that and have inflated this line to force the public to pay a hefty price to back Atlanta here.

If you follow the NFL closely, you know that it’s often a lot harder for the team who loses the Super Bowl to bounce back the next season. We saw this first hand last year with the Panthers. Carolina went 15-1 in the regular season and cruised to the Super Bowl, where they were stunned by the Broncos. The Panthers not only missed the playoffs, they went a mere 6-10.

I’m not saying the Falcons are going to suffer that kind of setback, but it’s not out of the question. I could certainly see them starting off slow. Star wideout Julio Jones has missed a good chunk of the offseason recovering from toe surgery. He’s the one guy that really makes this offense go, as opposing teams have to pay so much attention to him.

The other key here is I don’t think the Bears are as bad as people think. They did a nice job building up the depth on the roster this offseason. Keep in mind they had 6 losses last year by a touchdown or less and all 3 of their wins came on their home field. I don't think an outright win is out of the question.

I think the offense is more than capable of having some success here and I think the defense will be able to do just enough to slow down the Falcons offense. A lot of people overlook the fact that Chicago ranked in the top half of the league against both the run (15th) and the pass (3rd). Take the Bears! 

5* Chiefs/Patriots NFL 'VEGAS INSIDER' Top Play on Chiefs +

After a long look at this one, I really like the value here with Kansas City as a near double-digit underdog against the Patriots. New England is getting way to much respect from the books and with the public all over them, they got not choice but to inflate this line. 

I have some major concerns with the Pats going into the season. The loss of Julian Edelman is a major blow to everything that NE does offensively. He's the guy that Brady looks to more than anyone and without him I think this offense will struggle to move the ball. At least against a top level defense like the Chiefs, who could really cause the Patriots problems if Justin Houston and Dee Ford are able to put pressure on Brady. 

I also think people are overlooking New England's defense and how it could struggle this year. They certainly didn't play much defense in the preseason. The Chiefs aren't considered an offensive juggernaut, but they got two big time weapons in the passing game in Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce. I also think people are going to be surprised with how well rookie RB Kareem Hunt fills in for Spencer Ware. 

While Belichick is in a class of his own, Andy Reid is one of the top coaches in the league and his teams rarely under perform when given extra time to prepare. The Chiefs are a great matchup for NE, as they too don't turn the ball over and excel at special teams. I see this one coming right down to the wire. Take Kansas City!

5* Super Bowl 51 NO LIMIT Top Play on Patriots - 

I think the experience New England has of being in this spot, is a much bigger advantage than people think. Two things that I look for when making my Super Bowl pick, is the team with the better defense and head coach. I think New England has the clear edge in both of those departments.

One of the big questions that I keep hearing in the media is how will the Patriots slow down Atlanta’s offense. I understand the question, given what the Falcons have done to Seattle and Green Bay. What is getting overlooked, is neither of those defenses were 100% in the secondary. Seattle was without Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman was playing on a bum knee. As for the Packers, that defense has been decimated for quite a while now.

New England finished 8th in the NFL in total defense (326.4 ypg) and 1st in points allowed (15.6 ppg). The Patriots don’t have a bunch of superstars on this side of the ball, but are solid across the board. More than anything, Belichick puts them in positions to excel. Each week he puts together a gameplan specific for the opponent they are playing. Trust me, if anyone can slow down the Falcons, it’s Belichick. Especially when you give him two weeks to prepare.

People should be asking how will Atlanta’s defense stop New England from scoring. The Patriots were 4th in the NFL in total offense (386.3 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (27.6 ppg). They put up 34 on the Texans and 36 on the Steelers in their two playoff games. Both of which I feel are better than what Atlanta faced.

The Falcons defense has looked good in their last two games playing with big leads. However, this is a unit that wasn’t anything special this year. Atlanta was 25th in total defense (371.2 ypg) and 27th in points allowed (25.4 ppg).

I almost get the feeling that a lot of the action here on the Falcons is more out of the hate for the Patriots. Most of the public doesn’t like this team and are sick of them winning. The thing is, New England is 4-2 with Brady/Belichick in the Super Bowl. If not for two ridiculous drives by the Eli Manning, they would be 6-0.
Keep in mind those Giants teams that beat the Pats had incredible defenses that could get pressure on the quarterback. Atlanta has a great pass rusher in Vic Beasley, but were just 16th in the NFL in sacks as a team (34). New England will have a game plan in place to make sure Beasley doesn’t take over the game. Add it all up and I think the edge here clearly goes to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Take New England! 

5* Steelers/Patriots AFC Champ Game ATS No Brainer on Patriots -

I like the value here with New England laying less than a touchdown at home. I’m not concerned with how the Patriots looked in their win over the Texans. The fact that they won by 18 and didn’t even play well says a lot about just how good this team is. Belichick will be sure to remind them of how poorly they played against Houston and that should have New England 100% locked in for this one.

My biggest concern with the Chiefs last week against the Steelers was their ability to stop Le’Veon Bell. It proved to be the difference, as Bell rushed 30 times for 170 yards (5.7 yards/carry). His big game overshadowed a not so great game for Roethlisberger. As mentioned in the Chiefs/Steelers preview last week, Big Ben is just not the same quarterback on the road as he is at home.

I believe the Patriots will be able to keep Bell in check and ultimately win this game by at least a touchdown. Keep in mind New England was 3rd in the NFL against the run, allowing just 88.6 ypg. In that first meeting against the Steelers, they held Bell to just 81 yards on 21 attempts. That’s only 3.9 yards/carry.

You also can’t overlook just how big a homefield edge the Patriots have in the playoffs. Since Roethlisberger took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 1-3 in games played in New England. The only win coming in the 2008 regular season with Matt Cassell at QB for the Patriots. New England is also 7-2 in the last 9 including that game without Brady in 08.

The Patriots have also been covering machines against teams like the Steelers. NE is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against teams who give up 5.65 or more yards/play on defense. They are also 15-4 ATS in their last 19 against teams who average 5.65 or more yards/play on offense. Patriots are also 12-3 ATS in home games over the last 2 years and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 17 points or less. On top of that, I don't see how the Antonio Brown distraction helps the Steelers and Pittsburgh has also been hit with the flu bug. Take New England!