Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NFL - NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR on Falcons -3 -125

I love the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal at home against the Panthers. I know a lot of times teams tend to respond with a big effort after their head coach gets canned, but I don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Carolina team. For a second straight year the Panthers have fell apart after a strong start. 

Last year the Panthers started out 6-2 only to lose 7 straight and end up finishing 7-9. This year they jumped out to a 4-2 record and are now 5-7 and are riding a 4-game losing streak. The most recent being an inexcusable home loss to the Redskins. 

Falcons might be just 3-9, but they have looked like a much better team over the last month and they absolutely destroyed Carolina on the road a few weeks back 29-3 as a 4.5-point dog. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home against the Panthers with Matt Ryan at QB. Panthers are 0-6 ATS last 6 in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half in their last 7 vs a team that's giving up 350+ yards/game. Take Atlanta! 

4* NFL - Titans/Colts ATS WINNER on Titans +1½ -110

I got a strong feeling on both the side and the total in Sunday's huge AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans. I think we are getting an excellent price here on both Tennessee and the UNDER. 

The Titans have really come on strong in the second half of the season. Tennessee is 4-1 in their last 5. A big reason for their turnaround is the switch from Mariota to Tannehill at QB, as they now have an offense that can compliment their defense. With T.Y. Hilton not able to go for Indy, I just don't see the Colts being able to win this game. 

As for the UNDER, both of these teams want to play ball control with the run game and both defenses are built to stop the run. I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions for this to eclipse the mark. I expect something very similar to the first meeting that ended 19-17 with a combined total of 36. 

Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record and the UNDER is 14-3 in the Colts last 17 vs a team with a winning record, 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half of the season and 8-1 in the Titans last 9 on the road off a division game. Take the Titans & UNDER! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Browns -2 -110

A lot of people are probably thinking the Steelers are the pissed off team after what went down in the previous meeting with Garrett swinging and hitting Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph with his own helmet. However, the Browns feel like Pittsburgh is the one that started it and now they want to finish it. 

The biggest thing here outside of all that is Cleveland is just the better team. They dominated the previous matchup in a 21-7 win. Pittsburgh's offense turned it over 4 times and have really struggled to score of late. It's so bad they are going to Devlin Hodges at quarterback. Hodges threw a 79 yard TD pass in the win over the Bengals last week. Take away that one big play and he was a mere 4 of 10 for 39 yards. Add in no Ju-Ju Smith-Schster and James Conner and NY simply doesn't have the talent offensively to win this game. 

Browns have won and covered 3 in a row and this recent surge has come after they played an absolutely brutal schedule early. I think they make a statement here by sweeping the Steelers and moving a step closer to locking in a Wild Card spot. 

Teams (Steelers) with a line of +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss of 14 or more with a winning pct. of 51% to 60% are a mere 13-36 (26%) ATS since 1983. Take Cleveland! 

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110

I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42). 

The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over. 

Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay! 

3* NFL - Saints/Falcons ATS DESTROYER on Falcons +7 -110

I really like the value here with the Falcons. Atlanta laid an egg last week at home against the Bucs after two dominating performances on the road against the Saints and Panthers. Everyone was against the Falcons in those two upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina. Most of those same people jumped on them last week against Tampa Bay and now want absolutely nothing to do with them after getting burned. 

I know the playoffs are no longer a realistic goal for Atlanta, but there's no doubt in my mind they will show up for this game with it being a prime time matchup on their home turf. It doesn't matter how bad they are, the Falcons always lay it all on the line against the Saints. 

You also just can't ignore what this Atlanta team was able to do just a few weeks ago when these two met up in New Orleans. They won convincingly 26-9 and held that high-powered Saints offense out of the endzone. I definitely could see NO offense struggling again, as they will be playing here without starting left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat. Armstead was a 2nd-Team All-Pro and Peat is a Pro Bowler. 

I'm not saying the Saints won't get their revenge and win the game, but I expect a closely contested matchup that goes right down to the wire, making the Falcons an easy play at this price. Take Atlanta! 

5* NFL - Bears/Lions NFC North PLAY OF THE YEAR on Bears -3 +100

I love the value here with Chicago laying just a field goal at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. As ugly as it's been for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, this is just too good a price to pass up. The Lions are on a free fall having lost 7 of 8. When you lose to Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins you know it's not good. 

Matthew Stafford is still a no go for Detroit and while Jeff Driskel will play, he's going to be at less than 100% after tweaking his hamstring against the Lions. You take away his mobility and you really make it tough on him against an elite Bears defense. 

I don't know that Trubisky can be saved from what we have seen, but he is coming off one of his better games against the Giants and did throw 3 touchdowns against this Detroit defense back in Week 10. 

One thing the Bears have done well is cover the number against their NFC North counterparts. Chicago is 9-1 ATS last 10 games vs division opponents. They have also covered 11 of their last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Detroit is just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home, 2-6 ATS last 8 vs a division foe and 0-6 ATS last 6 overall. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110

I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers. 

I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams. 

It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you. 

Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cowboys +6 -115

The Cowboys are definitely worth a look here as a near touchdown dog against the Patriots. New England was able to bounce back from that ugly loss to the Ravens with a 17-10 win at Philly last week, but that was not the kind of performance you would expect to see out of the Pats coming off their bye. 

The defense was sensational after a slow start, but the offense was far from impressive. Tom Brady is going to play, but he doesn't look 100%. They also got a lot of skill players and offensive linemen banged up right now. Dallas has the guys on defense to keep them in check. 

I also think Cowboys offense is the kind of offense that can have success against this Patriots defense. New England is built more to stop the pass than they are the run. I think Dallas can move the ball behind Zeke and keep this within one-score all the way. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 75% or more of their games and come in having won 6/7 of their last 8 games are just 10-29 in the 2nd half of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 74% system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Dallas! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Broncos +4 +100

I like the value here with Denver getting more than a field goal against the Bills on Sunday. I just feel these are two teams with very misleading records. The Broncos are no where close to as bad as their 3-7 record would suggest. We saw that in last week's near upset of the Vikings on the road. They have 5 losses by just 1 score. 

As for the Bills, they are not as good as their 7-3 record. Buffalo has simply played a cupcake schedule to get to this point. The Bills 7 wins are against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins (twice) and Redskins. Not a single one of those teams currently has a winning record and Tennessee (5-5) is the only one with more than 3 wins. 

Denver's offense isn't great, but it's looked a lot better without Joe Flacco in their Brandon Allen has played well and they don't need a great offense to win games, as they still have a top tier defense. With the limitations the Bills have on offense, I like the Broncos to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance. Take Denver! 

4* NFL - Early Bird ATS HEAVY HITTER on Raiders -3 -110

Oakland is definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point favorite against the Jets. For whatever reason this Raiders team just doesn't get the respect they deserve. If the season ended today, Oakland would be in as the final Wild Card and a win here puts them tied with the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC West. 

The Jets are simply getting too much love after a couple of wins against a couple of bad NFC East teams in the Giants and Redskins. New York wasn't a very talented team to start with and are dealing with all kinds of injuries right now. I think the fact Oakland didn't play well last week against Cincinnati is also playing into the number, but that was a bit of a misleading final as they outgained the Bengals by 140 yards. 

Jets are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 at home and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of November. Raiders aer 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Oakland! 

3* NFL - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +4 -110

I like the value here with Tampa Bay getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. I know Atlanta has looked better of late with back-to-back blowout wins on the road against the Saints and Panthers, but I think it has them overvalued here against a Bucs team that is going to keep fighting despite their struggles. 

Division games are often closer than expected and that's definitely been the case of late with these two teams. Each of the last 3 meetings in the series have been decided by 5 or fewer points. 

Atlanta has also not been good in this spot. Falcons are just 3-12 ATS last 15 at home off a win by 10 or more against a division rival, 4-14 ATS last 18 after two straight games allowing 14 or fewer points and 14-34 ATS last 48 at home off two straight covers. Take Tampa Bay! 

5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120

Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye. 

Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs. 

Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going. 

Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119

The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line. 

Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams. 

Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland! 

4* NFL - Seahawks/49ers MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on 49ers -6 -109

The public is all over Seattle getting close to a touchdown on the road, but I really like the 49er to lay it on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is one of the most complete teams in the league and there's not many teams they want to beat more than Seattle, as these two have formed quite the rivalry over the last decade. 

Most are just assuming Russell Wilson will do enough here to keep Seattle within the number, but  it's been near impossible to throw the ball with any kind of success against this 49ers defense. In San Francisco's last 6 games they are giving up a mere 108 passing/yards game. 

I could see Wilson throwing for 200 yards here, but I just don't think they will be able to score enough here. People like to overlook how poorly this Seahawks defense is playing. Seattle has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5 games and the only exception game against Atlanta without Matt Ryan. 49ers are averaging 35.3 ppg at home this season. Take San Francisco! 

3* NFL - Situational DOG OF THE DAY on Steelers +3½ -105

I like the value here with the Steelers as a home dog. I just think we are seeing the Rams way overvalued here coming off their bye having won and covered each of their last two. I just don't get the hype over LA's last two wins, as they were against two awful teams in the Falcons and Bengals. 

They aren't going to find it so easy moving the ball against this Steelers defense, which has really carried this team back into contention. They have been really good against the pass and I believe if you can make it difficult on Jared Goff and not let him get into a rhythm, this offense struggles to score, especially with how they are running the ball. Rams are only averaging 97 yards/game on the ground and have eclipsed the 100 yard mark just once in their last 6 games. 

Steelers are 7-2-2 ATS last 11 off a SU win and 8-2 ATS last 10 off a cover. Rams are also just 13-29 ATS last 42 vs teams who have a +1 per game turnover margin or better. Steelers have forced 3 or more turnovers in 4 straight games and at least two in 7 straight. Take Pittsburgh! 

3* NFL - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Ravens -10 +100

I got no problem here laying double-digits on the road with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore has won 4 straight and are coming off a 17-point win at home against the Patriots. The Bengals haven't won a game all season and it's got so bad in Cincinnati they are benching Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finley. 

I just don't think it's going to get any better offensively with Finley under center. Andy Dalton wasn't great in the Bengals first 8 games, but he's not the reason they have one of the worst offenses in the league. Bengals have eclipsed 17 points just once in their last 7 games. With the way defenses are struggling to contain Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense, I just don't see Cincinnati keeping this close. 

Ravens are 12-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season in their last 13 road games vs awful defensive teams that are giving up 375+ yards/game. On the flip side of this, Bengals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs good offensive teams that are averaging 350+ yards/game. Take Baltimore! 

3* NFL - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Giants -3 +100

You won't see me laying points on the road with a 2-7 team often, but this isn't really a road game for the Giants, as they share MetLife Stadium with the Jets. I just think the Jets are a dumpster fire right now and it's not going to get any better. 

Sam Darnold and this Jets offense has been atrocious in their last 3 games. Darnold is playing without absolute no confidence right now. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 8 interceptions. It's not just all on Darnold. New York has only eclipsed 20 points once this season, scoring 16 or fewer in all but 2 games. That's why I'm not overly concerned with how the Giants defense has struggled. 

Also, when it's going bad for the Jets, it's a good idea to keep fading them. They are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 4 of their last 5. Jets are also 5-15 ATS last 20 in the 2nd half of the season vs teams that allow 375 or more yards/game, while Giants are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games vs teams allowing 350 or more yards/game. Take the Giants! 

5* NFL - Cowboys/Giants MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +7 -115

I love the value here with New York getting a TD at home against the Cowboys. No question this line is inflated in favor of Dallas, as they are a massive public team and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league right now at 2-6. 

Dallas also getting a ton due to the fact that they went into their bye off a dominating 37-10 win at home over the Eagles and due to the fact they whooped the Giants at home 35-17 in Week 1. Thing is that was with Eli Manning at quarterback and without their top wide out Golden Tate. Daniel Jones is definitely an upgrade of Eli and I think this offense will be able to do enough to cover this spread. 

Cowboys are just 6-16 ATS last 22 road game soff a home win by 21 or more points and the Giants are a dominant 17-3 ATS last 20 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take New York! 

5* NFL- Pats/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ravens +3½ -115

I know the Patriots have looked unbeatable threw the first half of the season, but you just can't ignore how easy the schedule has been. Their last 7 games have come against the Browns, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo is the only one of those teams with a winning record.

Note that while they beat the Bills 16-10, they should have probably lost. Buffalo had a 375 to 224 edge in total yards and 23 first downs to the Pats 11. This Ravens team is the best that NE will have seen all season. Lamar Jackson's ability to make plays with his legs is the one thing you can't defend for and I think we see the NE defense struggle for the first time this season. Also, big edge playing at home in a prime time game like this. 

Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg are just 18-52 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more. Take Baltimore!

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +3½ -120

As difficult as it may be to bet on a team at this price that doesn't have a win, I really like the value with Miami on Sunday. This is not the same Dolphins team that wasn't trying early in the season. They have really been playing hard and enter having covered 3 straight. 

Jets are a complete mess right now. The ghosts that Sam Darnold started seeing against the Patriots were also in Jacksonville, as Darnold threw 3 more picks and was sacked 8 times by the Jaguars. Not only is he struggling, but there's beef within the locker room and how management handled the attempt to trade safety Jamal Adams. No team wants to go 0-16 and I think we get a big effort here from the Dolphins and they get that first win of 2019. Take Miami! 

5* NFL - 49ers/Cardinals TNF ATS NO-BRAINER on 49ers -10 -109

Usually I wouldn't lay a big number like this on the road in a division matchup, but I just think the 49ers are going to win here easily. This San Francisco defensive front is unreal and are making it near impossible for opposing teams to throw on them. 49ers rank No. 1 in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 128.7 ypg. 

Arizona is down starting running back David Johnson and backup Chase Edmonds, which forced them to make a trade with the Dolphins for Kenyan Drake. I don't see the Cardinals being able to have the kind of success running the ball needed to keep this 49ers defense honest. 

Last week the Cardinals had just 40 rushing yards and 197 passing yards against a good Saints defense. 49ers should score into the 20's here and easily win this game by 14-plus points. Take San Francisco! 

5* NFL - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Packers -4 -105

No reason to overthink this one. This is too good a price to pass up with Green Bay given the circumstances. Kansas City will not have the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes and if you watched the offense last week with Matt Moore after Mahomes went down, it's night and day. I get we are seeing almost a 7-point swing with Mahomes out, but I feel he's worth more than that. 

It's also not just Mahomes that the Chiefs are missing. They are unlikely to have star defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Frank Clark. I get the defense played well against the Broncos, but Denver's offense is a complete mess with how bad Flacco is playing. 

I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and I could see this getting out of hand early. It just feels like a throw away game for KC with Mahomes out. Take Green Bay! 

4* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Raiders +7 -115

The Raiders are definitely worth a look here at this price. Oakland's not a team that gets a lot of love to start with, while Houston is a pretty decent public play with how much the public likes Deshaun Watson. Add in the Raiders coming in off an ugly looking 42-24 loss to the Packers and I don't think there's any doubt this line is inflated. 

However, a closer look at the box score shows the Raiders were a lot more competitive than that final against Green Bay. In fact, Oakland outgained the Packers 484 to 481. They had two times where they had 1st and goal and didn't score a point an another turnover in the redzone. Gruden has this team going in the right direction and I not only think they can cover, but win this game outright. Take Oakland! 

3* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Browns +11½ -115

Cleveland is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Patriots. I just think we are seeing New England way overvalued coming off that dominating performance against the Jets, where they made Sam Darnold see ghosts. 

Most just assume that Cleveland will have no shot of keeping this close, but I think they not only keep it within the number, I think they give NE a real scare here. Browns have a massive edge in rest, as they will be coming off their bye, while the Patriots are on a short week after playing on MNF. 

Favorites of 10.5 or more that are outgaining opponents by 1.75 or more yards/pass attempt are just 15-39 (28%) ATS if off 2 straight games holding a team to 5.5 or fewer yards/pass attempts. Take Cleveland! 

4* NFL - Pats/Jets MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Jets +10 -110

This is too good a price to pass up with New York at home. The Jets looked like a different team with Sam Darnold under center last week, as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as a 7-point home dog. New York isn't just going into MNF thinking they can keep it close, they believe they can win outright. 

These two already played back in Week 3, which the Patriots won 30-14. New England only won by 16 and Luke Faulk started that game for the Jets. Tom Brady threw for 306 yards in that win, but the Pats only man aged 68 rushing yards on 27 attempts (2.5 yards/carry). Brady completed 30 of 42 pass attempts. Of those 30, 18 were to Rex Burkhead, Phillip Dorsett and Josh Gordon. Both Burkhead and Gordon are out and Dorsett is questionable. There was also concern Edelman might not play and he had 7 of the other 12 receptions. 

I look for this to be a low-scoring game, which definitely adds to the value here with New York at this price. Jets have covered 24 of their last 35 at home against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ ppg and 7-1-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take New York! 

4* NFL - Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Seahawks -3 -107

No way I'm passing up on the Seahawks as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Ravens. Seattle is 5-1 to start the year and have won 3 straight. Russell Wilson looks like the front runner for the MVP with Mahomes banged up and yet it doesn't feel like this Seahawks team is getting any love. 

I look for Wilson to have a huge game against a suspect Ravens secondary and you know he wants to get the better of former Seahawk safety Earl Thomas. Baltimore ranks in the bottom 10 of the league against the pass, as opposing QB's are completing 61% and averaging 7.7 yards/attempt. 

Favorites off 2 straight games with 50 or more points scored are 35-12 (75%) ATS the last 10 seasons in games where both defenses are struggling (allowing 23-27 ppg). Take the Seattle! 

5* NFL - Saints/Bears NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bears -3 -120

It's been an impressive run for New Orleans behind Teddy Bridgewater while Drew Brees recovers from a thumb injury, but I don't see the Saints winning in Chicago on Sunday. While they have been winning games, it's not because Bridgewater is lighting up defenses. 

He certainly isn't going to light up this Bears defense, which is No. 6 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Making matters even worse, New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara. 

Bears will be getting Trubisky back from injury and I think we are going to see a little more offense out of Chicago out of the bye week. Bears are a lot closer to being 5-0 than they get credit for. They are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs other NFC teams. Take Chicago! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cardinals +3½ -115

I just don't trust this Giants team and feel they are getting a little too much love because of the media hype around Daniel Jones. Not to mention NY is expected to get back Saquon Barkley. The problem that keeps getting overlooked with the Giants is the defense. 

New York is 31st out of 32 teams against the pass, giving up 285 yards/game. They also rank in the bottom 10 (24th) against the run, allowing 127.3 ypg. That defense is going up against a confident rookie QB in Kyler Murray, who has guided the Cardinals to back-to-back wins. 

Giants are 1-9 ATS at home in the 1st half of the season over the last 3 years. They are just 8-19 ATS last 27 off a road loss by 21 or more. Cardinals are 12-3 ATS last 15 games with a total of 49.5 or more. Take Arizona! 

4* NFL - Lions/Packers MNF NO-BRAINER on Lions +4 -110

I think we are getting some big time value here with Detroit catching more than a field goal. The betting public just assumes an Aaron Rodgers led team can't lose at home in a prime time game, but the Lions have won 4 straight in the series and have won 3 of their last 4 trips to Green Bay. 

Packers defense has been one of the more improved units in the league, but I don't know that it's as good as people think. Also, the offense hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard. Green Bay has just 1 game this season where they have thrown for more than 235 yards. They also have finished with fewer than 80 yards rushing in 3 of 5 games.

Detroit is a team that gets little to no respect, but I really like what Matt Patricia is doing with this team. They won at Philadelphia and should have beat the Chiefs at home. They will be ready to go here coming off a bye. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lions win this outright. Give me Detroit +4! 

3* NFL - Vegas ATS SHOCKER on Jets +7½ -115

This is just too good a price to pass up on the Jets. I think the public perception is that the Cowboys will bounce back against a bad team after a couple of bad losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think there's some pretty clear flaws with that Cowboys offense. 

As for the Jets, you have to take their 0-4 start and factor in they didn't have starting quarterback Sam Darnold for 3 of those games. Not only that, but they were quickly down to their No. 3 starter and it was a massive drop off. Darnold will put more pressure on the defense, which should allow Le'Veon Bell to be a bigger factor. 

Cowboys are just 6-18 ATS last 24 road games vs bad offensive teams (avg. 258 or less ypg). Jets are also 7-1-1 ATS last 9 at home against a team with a .500 or better record on the road. Take New York! 

4* NFL - 49ers/Rams NFC West NO-BRAINER on Rams -3 -120

Love the value here with the Rams laying only a field goal at home against the 49ers. I know Todd Gurley is questionable, but with or without him I think LA gets the job done at home.

A lot of people are jumping on the 49ers bandwagon after that impressive 31-3 win over Cleveland on Monday Night Football. SF is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. However, they have played a relatively easy schedule. 

Their worst offensive performance came in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, when they struggled to run the ball. Finished with just 98 yards on 32 attempts. Rams have been pretty solid against th run, especially at home, where they are allowing just 72 ypg and 2.9 yards/carry. Also, 49ers run game figures to take a huge hit with the loss of fullback Kyle Juszczyk. When Juszczyk got hurt in that Browns game, the SF's offense did not look the same. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dolphins +3½ -110

As bad as the Dolphins have looked to start out the 2019 season, I have to take my chances with Miami covering as a 3.5-point home dog against Washington. There's no way this Redskins team should be favored on the road against any team in the league right now. 

Washington just fired head coach Jay Gruden and might be without two starters on the offensive line, as both Donald Penn and Brandon Scherff are both questionable. Keep in mind they are still without star left tackle Trent Williams who is holding out. 

Miami clearly is in rebuilding mode, but there's no way the players aren't going to try to give their best effort for a win. I think we get one of their best efforts all season at home coming off a bye against a team they know they can beat. Let's overlook that the Dolphins have played 4 potential playoff teams in the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers. Take Miami! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Eagles +3 +104

I like the Eagles to go into Minnesota and come away with a win, making them an easy play at +3. I just think there's a lot more flaws with this Vikings team than people realize. They are 3-2, but their 3 wins are against the Falcons, Raiders and Giants. 

Kirk Cousin has not looked good outside of that game against a bad Giants defense. When this team has faced a good defense they have not done much. They had just 16 points against Green Bay and managed a mere 6 against the Bears. 

Eagles defense has been spotty, but most of their problems have come against the pass. In fact, they lead the league in run defense, giving up just 63 yards/game. If Minnesota can't run the ball they are in serious trouble. Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have to do much to get the win. Take Philadelphia! 

4* NFL - Browns/49ers MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Browns +4 -115

The Browns are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the 49ers. San Francisco is overvalued after their 3-0 start. 49ers are improved, but also haven't really been tested.

Their last two wins were against the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, which they were lucky to win, and the Bengals, who are now 0-5. Their 31-17 win over the Bucs in Week 1 looks decent, but they were actually outgained 295 to 256. Difference in the game was they had two interceptions returned for scores. 

Browns had that ugly 43-13 loss at home to the Titans and people were quick to jump off the bandwagon. They have won 2 of their last 3 since with the only loss to the Rams. They are coming off their best performance of the season, destroying the Ravens 40-25 in Baltimore. 

Browns have now covered 4 straight on the road and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Cleveland! 

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated. 

Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything. 

I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati! 

5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110

This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland. 

What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago! 

4* NFL - Public Massacre NO-BRAINER on Bills +7½ -110

Big time value here with Buffalo as a 7.5-point dog against the Patriots. I just think we are getting a little carried away with how good the Patriots have looked early on in 2019. They whooped the Steelers at home on SNF in Week 1. I know Pitt had Big Ben, but clearly that was the same offense without AB. They got a freebie in a game against Miami, who wants nothing at all to do with winning and lastly the Jets with their 3rd string QB under center. 

Bills are also 3-0, yet no one outside of Buffalo thinks this team is any kind of threat to make serious playoff run. That's probably accurate given the limited offense, but the defense the Bills got is the real deal. They had the No. 1 ranked pass D last year and have been every bit as good in that department this year.

Patriots got a lot key guys hurt right now and I think Brady and the offense struggles. IN both meetings last year and 3 of the last 4 overall, Bills have held the Pats to 25 or fewer points. I think the Bills do enough offensively to keep it within the number and maybe even win outright. Take Buffalo! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Lions +7 -115

Detroit is definitely worth a look at home getting a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes is the talk of the NFL. He looks even better than he did last year in his MVP season. They are one of the big public teams right now and no question the books have inflated the number here on KC. 

The Lions are a 18-point blown 4th quarter lead away from being 3-0. They knocked off a good Chargers team at home and went on the road and beat the Eagles. Instead of giving Detroit credit, people just assume those teams aren't as good as they thought because they lost to the Lions. 

Matt Patricia is doing a much better job than he gets credit for. Mahomes and that KC offense is going to score, but I think the Lions will be able to move the ball at will against a bad Chiefs defense that is due for a letdown after laying it all on the line against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They also aren't as good on the road when they don't have that home crowd making things so difficult on the opposing offense. Take Detroit! 

3* NFL - Eagles/Packers ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eagles +4½ -110

I think we are getting a great price here on the Eagles catching over a field goal against the Packers on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in at 1-2 and just lost at home to the Lions as a 4-point favorite. People are starting to second guess this team.

Packers on the other hand are 3-0 and have covered all 3. Public loves betting Aaron Rodgers and thus we get the value with Philadelphia. 

Eagles are really close to being 3-0. At the same time, it's not like the Packers are dominating teams. The defense has really carried them. Rodgers and that offense look out of sync in the scheme. The other thing is we don't really know if the defense is as good as it's looked.

Haven't exactly played the best signal callers with their first 3 against Tribusky, Cousins and Flaco. They also got some key guys banged up on that side that might miss this one. I think Wentz and that Eagles offense will be able to move the ball and wouldn't be shocked if the won the game outright. Take Philadelphia! 

5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110

I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2. 

I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury. 

This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week. 

You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland! 

3* NFL - Vegas Line Mistake ATS SHOCKER on Jets +23 -110

I just think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with this line. I get New England is good and they won and covered on the road as a 18-point favorite in last week's 43-0 win at Miami, but the Dolphins simply aren't trying to be competitive. The Jets are down to third string QB Luke Falk, but they are no where close to as bad as Miami. No other team is. 

I know the offense was putrid in the loss the Browns on Monday Night Football, but I really like how the defense competed. I also think given how bad Trevor Siemian has been in this league and how bad he looked, Falk can't be much worse. 

We know the Jets are going to give it all as against the Patriots. There's no team they want to beat more than New England. I know the Pats are the last team you expect to have a letdown, but it's gonna be hard for them to take NY seriously enough to win going away. It could be 34-13 and we are golden. I don't know that NE scores that much. Take the Jets! 

4* NFL - Titans/Jags Thurs Night VEGAS INSIDER on Jaguars +2

The betting public is all over the Titans in this one and I'm not sure why. I really like the value here with Jacksonville as a home dog. I think the Jags are undervalued for a lot of reasons. For one they are 0-2, they got embarrassed in Week 1 at home by the Chiefs and lost starting QB Nick Foles, who was their prized free agent pickup. Not to mention the recent headlines of Jalen Ramsey wanting traded. 

Jacksonville was a 2-point conversion away from winning outright as a 9-point underdog at Houston in Week 2. The loss of Foles sucks, but I've liked what I've seen out of rookie Gardner Minshew. I don't know that the drop off from Foles is as big as people think. I thought Foles was more a product of the system in Philadelphia than anything. 

The other thing is the Jaguars still have one of the best defenses in the league. They just got exposed by Mahomes and that potent Chiefs offense in Week 1. They were really good against Deshaun Watson last week. Titans offense is not good. They are also not the team you want to back as a road favorite. With Marcus Mariota as the starter, Tennessee is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NFL - Browns/Jets MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +3 -110

I liked the Jets when the line first came out and while the Darnold news is not ideal, I still like New York to make a game of this at home on Monday Night Football. Jets still have Le'Veon Bell to keep the offense moving and this Browns defense is not as good as people think. They let Marcus Mariota threw for 250 yards and 3 scores and gave up over 120 yards on the ground. 

That same Titans offense managed just 242 total yards at home in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. I know Trevor Siemian has not been great as a starter, but a lot of those starts were on bad teams. I think he outperforms expectations in a big way here. Take New York! 

3* NFL - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Broncos +3 -125

The public is all over the Bears as a small road favorite, but I really like Denver to knock off Chicago at home in Week 2. I get the Broncos didn't look great in that Week 1 loss at Oakland, but I think they were surprised with how well the Raiders played. I think Denver might have thought that was going to be a lot easier after AB was released. 

Denver is also a very difficult place to play and a lot of these Bears players aren't use to the thin air of Mile High. I think that impacts the Bears defense and that Chicago offense looked way out of sync in Week 1 against Green Bay. Hard to win on the road if you can't score. Take Denver! 

5* NFL - AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +7½ -110

Love the value here with Oakland getting over a touchdown at home against the Chiefs. I really liked what I saw from the Raiders in their win over Denver on MNF in Week 1. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder from all that AB drama. 

They are going to give everything they got to beat their rival in KC. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense looked great in Week 1, but the problem is the defense. Kansas City did a lot to try and get better on that side of the ball only to watch a rookie in Gardner Minshew complete 22 of 25 against them. 

Add in the loss of Tyreek Hill for that Chiefs offense and I think Oakland can make a game of this. Also this a really tough traveling spot for KC having to go from playing at Jacksonville in Week 1 to the complete other side of the country in California. Take the Raiders! 

5* NFL - Bucs/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers -6½ -109

I really like the Panthers to lay it on the Bucs tonight. While both teams are coming off a loss at home in Week 1, Carolina lost to the reigning NFC champs in the Rams, while Tampa Bay lost to the 49ers. 

The big thing the Bucs were hoping for when they hired Bruce Arians was his ability to get Jameis Winston to finally play up to his potential. That hope didn't last long, as Winston threw for fewer than 200 yards and had 3 interceptions (two pick sixes) at home against a 49ers defense that only had 2 picks all of last year. 

I don't think it's going to get any better for Winston against the Panthers. Carolina's defense played pretty well against the Rams in Week 1. They gave up 30 points, but did hold the Rams to just 349 yards and just 4.6 yards/play. 

No player is going to be more motivated to go against Winston than new Carolina defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who prior to this year had only played for Tampa. Bucs basically said he was washed up. Not only do I think McCoy shows out against his old team, but I like the entire Panthers defense to play inspired for their new teammate. 

Lastly, you have to factor in the huge advantage the home team has playing in these Thursday games on just 3-days of rest. Take Carolina! 

5* NFL - Texans/Saints MNF HEAVY HITTER on Texans +7 -106

I absolutely love the the value here with Houston. The betting public loves Drew Brees and the Saints and will almost back them no matter what at home, especially in a prime time game like this. New Orleans is definitely a top tier team in the NFC, but no way should they be laying a touchdown in Week 1 to a very talented Texans team. 

It's almost like people forget how good Houston was last year. The Texans won the AFC South at 11-5 and yet were being picked by many to finish as low as 3rd in the division. DeShaun Watson had a big year that got overlooked with all the Mahomes/Goff hype. 

I know they just lost a great defensive player in Jadeveon Clowney, but in the process they made a huge upgrade on the offensive line by adding in Laremy Tunsil. If they can get better play up front, look out. Watson threw for over 4,000 yards with a 26-9 TD-INT ratio, despite being sacked 62 times (most since 2006).

The defense also still has an elite player in J.J. Watt, who is coming off a 16 sack season. It feels like forever since he's been this healthy coming into a season. I'm not saying they are going to stop Brees and the Saints, but I think they can do enough to keep this close and cash in a cover. Take Houston! 

5* NFL - Pats/Steelers Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +6 -110

I love the points with Pittsburgh, as the Steelers head to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. New England is the only team that no matter what happens in the offseason, it's just assumed they are going to be good. 

I expect the Patriots to be a threat in the AFC, but at least for now Tom Brady doesn't have Gronk. I know his play had declined some in the last couple of years, but Brady's numbers were drastically better with him on the field. I could definitely see that offense struggling early and it's not uncommon for the Pats to not look their best in the first couple weeks of the season. 

Pittsburgh is a team that I think people are kinda sleeping on. The Steelers losing both Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a lot to do with that. However, they showed they didn't need Bell last year and after the last month or so, I think Pittsburgh has to be thrilled to not have that headache in Brown. I think the offense won't miss a beat with Big Ben under center and that defense has a lot of talented young players. Take Pittsburgh! 

3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans +6 -110

There's a ton of hype around Cleveland this year and I think it has them a bit overvalued here in Week 1 against the Titans. Tennessee doesn't wow you, but they are modeling themselves after the Patriots under head coach Mike Vrabel. 

Much like when Belichick first put NE on the map, the strength of the Titans is their defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense (333.4 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (18.9 ppg) last year. They also figure to once again have one of the leagues best run games behind Derrick Henry. Ball control and ball security is what I think of with Tennessee. 

I think the Titans can play keep away enough to disrupt the rhythm of the Browns and offense. I think this is going to be a one-score game and wouldn't be shocked if the Titans pulled off the upset. Take Tennessee! 

3* NFL - Chiefs/Jaguars ATS DESTROYER on Jaguars +4 -110

There's all kinds of hype around this Kansas City team and the offensive firepower they figure to have behind reigning MVP Pat Mahomes. No question the Chiefs will be one of the top scoring teams in 2019, but this Jacksonville defense is no joke.

I think the Jaguars added another stud on this side of the ball in Josh Allen. This might be the best defense in the league. They were No. 2 in the NFL against the pass last year. While they lost 30-14 at KC last year, they actually held Mahomes without a TD pass and intercepted him twice. Problem for the Jags is Blake Bortles and the offense had 5 turnovers. 

No more Bortles to screw things up for the Jags, as they went out and signed Nick Foles to a big deal. While I don't know if Foles will ever be as good as that playoff run a couple years back, there's no question he's an upgrade over Bortles. Chiefs defense may be improved, but it's still middle of the pack at best. I think the Jags win this one. Take Jacksonville!

5* Rams/Patriots SUPER BOWL 53 Top Play on Rams +

I really like the Rams to take down Belichick and Brady in Super Bowl 53. I love that after their big win over the Chiefs the Patriots have regained the public backing and are favored here. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. 

Unlike Kansas City, whose defense just wasn't quite good enough, the Rams got the guys up front that can really disrupt Brady. It's a lot easier to set up your blocking to slow down edge rushers like the Chiefs' Dee Ford and Justin Houston. It's a whole different animal trying to slow down the dynamic duo of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. 

Just look at previous Super Bowls involving the Patriots. Their offense has struggled when going up against teams that can get pressure up the middle and force Brady out of the pocket. On the other side of the ball, New England has struggled with these high-powered offenses and I think Sean McVay and the Rams will be able to learn a lot with how the Patriots defended the Chiefs. Keep in mind that once KC figured out what the Pats were doing defensively, they did whatever they wanted. 

I just think the Rams have the better team and the edge on both sides of the football. Only reason the Patriots are favored is because of what they have done in the past. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +

I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread. 

Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly. 

The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL Saturday (Cowboys/Rams) HEAVY HITTER on Rams -

It's been quite a run for these Cowboys since they made the trade for Amari Cooper, but I think they are going to have a very tough time keeping it respectable against LA on Saturday. For me it's all about the matchup. 

Dallas has a strong pass rush and is good at stopping the run. That's great against a team like Seattle, who to their own demise ran the ball way too much last week. When the Seahawks were forced to pass they did so with relative ease and I think had they gone to it earlier they would have won.

The Rams aren't going to try to pound the rock against this defense, even with an elite back like Todd Gurley. Sean McVay is too smart and will be quick to attack a very vulnerable Cowboys secondary. Gurley will still get his touches, just more in the passing game. 

Another thing with the Dallas defense is they weren't nearly as good on the road. Cowboys allowed only 327 ypg on the season, yet gave up 368 ypg on the road, which tells you how different the story was for this defense depending on the venue. 

I also think people see that the Rams are giving up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and assume the Cowboys will be able to run the ball with ease. A lot of that has to do with LA playing a bunch of games where they had big leads and were playing more a prevent defense, which will give up big yards on the ground. Donald and Suh will be difference makers and I don't buy for a second that Dak Prescott can have the kind of game to go score for score with the Rams.  Take Los Angeles! 

4* NFL Saturday (Colts/Chiefs) VEGAS INSIDER  on Chiefs -

I really like the value here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home against the Colts. Even though the Chiefs arguably have the best quarterback in the league and the likely MVP, the public is on Andrew Luck and Indy in this one. 

While the Chiefs missed out on a couple opportunities to clinch the AFC West and No. 1 seed in the final few weeks, it may have been for the best. I would have been a lot more concerned with this team if they had clinched the No. 1 seed in Week 15 and had the last couple weeks mean nothing and them basically going into this game not having played a meaningful game in almost a month. 

The bottom line is they earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and while Andy Reid and the Chiefs don't have the best postseason history, none of that matters with No. 15 at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is special and the inability to score has been the biggest downfall in a lot of recent home losses for KC. 

Last year they were held to 21 points and shutout in the 2nd half of a 22-21 loss and in 2016 they fell 18-16 to the Steelers in the Divisional Round. Scoring won't be a problem. The Chiefs at least 26 points in every game and as bad as the defense has been on paper, there's no debate that they are a completely different defense at home. 

I know the Chiefs didn't know exactly who they would face, but Andy Reid with multiple weeks to prepare for a game has been nearly unbeatable. I just think all the factors here heavily favor not just a KC win, but a comfortable victory on Saturday. Take Kansas City! 

5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens -

This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards. 

The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games. 

I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore! 

4* NFL Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks +

I really like Seattle to go into Dallas and get a win, as I think they are the better team. I just think the Seahawks have been flying way under the radar. This is a team that lost a lot of big names on defense and were expected by many to be the 3rd best team in their own division. 

Despite having an elite quarterback in Russell Wilson, Seattle has transformed their style of play back to a more physical ground and pound team. The Seahawks led the league in rushing at 160 ypg and with opposing teams having to focus so much on the run, Wilson has a 35-7 TD-INT ratio and his 65.6% completion rate is his best since 2015. 

Sure, Dallas is a great story with how they turned around their season after the trade for Amari Cooper. I'm not saying Cooper doesn't make them a better team, I just think they aren't as good as you think. Dallas took advantage of a bad NFC East (5-1 division record). 

More than anything, I don't trust Dak Prescott to make the big plays when it matters the most in the 4th quarter. I also think that ability Dallas' defense has of putting pressure on the quarterback is negated with how mobile Wilson is and their ability to run the ball. Take Seattle! 

3* NFC West PLAY OF THE DAY on Rams -

Even with star running back Todd Gurley not available for this game, I'm confident the Rams are going to not only beat the 49ers at home in Week 17, I think they are going to cruise to blowout win. 

This game just means too much to LA. A win here and they get the No. 2 seed and a first round bye. A loss and they could be playing next weekend in the Wild Card round. I think we saw the sense of urgency show up in last week's game agains the Cardinals, which they rolled to a 31-9 win. 

As for Gurley not playing. Sure that's a big blow, but with all the attention the Rams passing game gets, there's going to be holes to run the ball. Gurley didn't play against Arizona and they had 269 yards on 41 attempts (6.6 yards/carry). C.J. Anderson came in and put up 167 yards in his first game with the team. 

49ers are going to play hard, but that simply won't be enough on the road. They just don't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -

Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers. 

You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend. 

While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field. 

Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota! 

4* AFC South GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +

I like the value here with Jacksonville getting a touchdown against the Texans. Houston is way overvalued here because the perception is that because they are the only team with something to play for, they will be the only ones that show up for this game. 

I think that is exactly why the Jaguars are going to show up here. They would love nothing more than to play spoiler against a division rival. While they can't keep the Texans from making the playoffs, they can knock them out of the top spot in the AFC South. 

I also think it's huge that Jacksonville is going back to Blake Bortles. I get he's not very good and likely won't be with the team after this game, but he gives them the best chance to win. If the Jags were throwing in the towel on the season and didn't want to go out with a victory, they wouldn't go back to Bortles. 

I also think the Texans aren't nearly as good as what people think. They are only outgaining opponents by 5.9 yards/game and haven't exactly played the toughest of schedules. Despite Jacksonville's poor record, they are still outgaining teams by 4.9 yards/game. 

Jags are 8-1 ATS last 9 in the 2nd half of the season vs teams scoring 24 or more points/game and Houston is a mere 1-8 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the season over the last 3 years. Take Jacksonville! 

4* MNF AFC WEST GAME OF THE WEEK on Raiders +

I really like the value here with Oakland getting points. This is going to be a really tough game for the Broncos to get up for. Denver just had their playoff hopes put to rest in a crushing 17-16 home loss to the Browns in Week 15. 

I just think it's asking a lot for them to show up and play their best on the road against a team as bad as Oakland. Not to mention they can't exactly be thrilled with being the only team that will be away from home on Christmas Eve. 

The here to backing Oakland is we have seen this team to continue to play hard down the stretch. I'm pretty confident Jon Gruden will have the troops fired up for a division rival on Monday Night Football. 

Broncos are also just 4-10 ATS last 14 vs a team with a losing record, 3-12 ATS last 15 off a game where they didn't cover and 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 on MNF. Home team in the series is 4-1 last 5. Take Oakland! 

3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Saints -

I think now is the ideal time to jump on New Orleans. While the Saints are 2-1 in their last 3 games, this team hasn't had the same look to it. They had their long winning streak snapped in a 13-10 loss at Dallas. They had to rally from double-digits to beat Tampa Bay on the road and then squeaked out a 12-9 win at Carolina. 

That was just a really tough stretch for New Orleans. Their loss against Dallas was their third game in a span of just 12 days. They didn't get a breather after that, as they had to play their next two on the road. I think playing at home is going to bring the best out of this team and few teams have stepped up their game better than the Saints at home. 

New Orleans is 25-5 ATS in their last 30 home games vs a team with a winning road record (usually top teams are the only ones who win more than they lose away from home). Steelers are off a win over New England at home, but only managed to score 17 points and will not have James Conner. They could also be without wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster. 

Saints are playing lights out defensively and I just don't see Big Ben with how he struggles on the road, keeping pace with Brees and company. Take New Orleans! 

4* NFL Jets/Packers ATS Winner on Jets +

Green Bay shouldn't be a favorite on the road against New York and the books have set the total way too high.

The Packers lost 24-17 at Chicago last week. A game if they had won, would have put them in a position to still have a shot at the playoffs. Now these last two games mean absolutely nothing and that can't be an easy pill to swallow when you have Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback. It's Super Bowl or bust with that kind of talent behind center. 

I know Rodgers is playing and the Packers are saying all the right things, like they are going to give these last two their best shot, but I'm not buying it for a second. I think the only thing on the mind for a lot of these players is getting this game over with so they can get home to their families for Christmas. 

The Jets also don't have anything to play for, but that was kind of to be expected with a rookie quarterback. There's plenty of incentive for New York to try and build some momentum for next year in these final few games. They certainly have been playing hard of late. They really should be riding a 3-game winning steak. They had a 13-point 2nd half lead in a 4-point loss to the Titans, beat Buffalo 27-23 a couple weeks back and last week gave the Texans all they could handle. 

I just think this is a great spot for the Jets to get a win at home in what is likely going to be an ugly grind it out kind of game. Keep in mind that even with Rodgers the Packers offense has struggled, scoring 17 in 3 of their last 4.

Jets are 35-18 ATS in their last 53 home games after playing their previous game at home and a 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games when coming off a home loss. UNDER is 6-2 in the Packers last 8 games overall and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take New York & UNDER! 

4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +

There's no question the Jags have struggled to come to terms with the disappointment of how this season went, but I think losing at home to a Redskins team that was decimated with injuries and had Josh Johnson at quarter will serve as a wake-up call and we will get a big effort here on the road against a team from their same home state. 

Miami shouldn't be laying more than a field goal here. The Dolphins are coming off an ugly 41-17 loss to the Vikings, where they gave up 220 yards rushing. The perception here is that Miami is still fighting, but the reality is they got no chance and they know it. I like Jacksonville to win this one outright. 

We also have a great system in play backing a Jaguars cover. Road teams in the month of December are 46-17 (73%)ATS when they come in having failed to cover 3 out of their last 4 games. 

Adding to this is a system in play going against the Dolphins. Home teams who have given up 25 or more points in back-to-back games are a mere 19-44 (30%) ATS when facing a team coming off a loss by 6 points or less. Take Jacksonville! 

5* Vikings/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +

We are seeing a big time overreaction here given the situation and it's generated great value with Detroit. Minnesota comes in off a 41-17 home win over the Dolphins and the perception here is they are the only team with something to play for and will win easy. 

I'm not about to overreact to the Vikings beating a mediocre at best Miami team at home. This is also a division game and there's nothing more satisfying than playing spoiler against a division rival when you aren't in the playoff mix. I expect a big time effort here from the Lions to make sure the Vikings join them at home watching the postseason. 

Detroit has really been competitive of late. In their last 5 games their only bad loss is a 14-point defeat at home to the Rams, but that was a very misleading final score, as the Lions merely trailed by 3-points (16-13) going into the 4th quarter and LA added a late TD. 

Detroits's defense has really played well and let's not forget how much this Vikings offense was struggling prior to their big game last week against the Dolphins. It's far from a guarantee that Minnesota even wins this game. Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a SU win and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 off a game they covered the spread. Take Detroit! 

4* Ravens/Chargers NFL ATS NO-BRAINER on Chargers - 

I just think there's a lot of value here with the Chargers only laying 4-points at home against the Ravens. Los Angeles is coming off an impressive 29-28 win at Kansas City and I think most would agree that the Chiefs and Chargers are the class of the AFC right now. Ravens were a 6.5-point dog at KC a couple weeks back and should be at least that here. 

Baltimore has won 4 of 5 since turning to Lamar Jackson and are putting up ridiculous rushing numbers during this stretch. What is getting overlooked is the poor defenses (Bengals, Raiders, Falcons, Chiefs & Bucs) they have played during this stretch. 

Chargers have held 3 of their previous 4 opponents to 65 or fewer rushing yards. While they likely give up a 100+ here, simply because of how much Baltimore runs and the QB being a big part of the running game, I think they can really create some negative plays early and force Jackson into a lot more 3rd and long situations. As good as Jackson has been running, he's got a long way to go with his arm. 

Baltimore has a good defense, but Philip Rivers is playing out of his mind right now and great offense typically beats great defense, especially when the high-powered offense is at home. I just don't see the Ravens being able to keep this within a touchdown. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NFL Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers +

This is the perfect time to buy low on the Panthers. Carolina has surprised just about everyone by losing 5 straight after starting the year 6-2. While it's hard to find positives in a 5-game losing streak, the Panthers have had their chances. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by 7-points or less and 4 of the last 5 have been on the road. 

Carolina is a dominant 5-1 at home and their lone home loss to the Seahawks is a game they gave away late. There's no way the Panthers should be catching almost a touchdown on their home field against any team in the league. New Orleans however is a massive public team right now. The Saints just covered a 9.5-point spread at Tampa Bay (very fortunate to cover) and are 10-1 ATS last 11. 

The big key here is the New Orleans offense is not playing at the same level it was early on. The Saints were held to just 10-points in a loss at Dallas and while they ended up with 28 last week at Tampa, they had just 3 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Carolina's got he talent up front to give the Saints trouble and that should be more than enough to keep them in this game. 

It's also worth noting this game means everything for the Panthers, who need to win to have a realistic shot at making it as a Wild Card. This one doesn't mean nearly as much to the Saints, thanks in large part to the Rams loss last night. A loss here and New Orleans still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Take Carolina! 

4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Vikings -

This is going to seem like way too many points for the Vikings to be laying coming off of back-to-back losses where they offense was non-existent, especially against a Dolphins team that just upset the Patriots.

As most of you are aware, Miami's win over New England was a complete fluke. Very similar to the Vikings last second win over the Saints in last year's playoffs. If you remember back, Minnesota got annihilated the next week by the Eagles. You are on such an emotional high from that miracle win, it becomes near impossible to play up to your true potential the next week. 

I also love the move by the Vikings to fire offensive coordinator Jon DeFilippo. That offense had lost it's confidence and a change of scenery could be exactly what they need to turn this thing around. Head coach Mike Zimmer has made it pretty clear there will be a bigger focus on the run, which they did get a little too pass-happy under DeFilippo. 

Minnesota also has a dominant defense that is only giving up 19.3 ppg and 270 ypg on their home field. I think they are going to make life miserable on a Miami offense that could must just 175 total yards a couple weeks ago against the Bills.

Dolphins are 2-10 ATS last 12 road games when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 0-6 last 6 road games off a division game. Vikings are 11-3 ATS last 14 home games after the first month of the season. Take Minnesota! 

3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Jags -

I'm sure a lot of people will have a hard time laying a big number with a Jaguars team that is just 1-8 in their last 9 games. However, this is not so much a play on Jacksonville as it is a play against the Redskins. 

Injuries have completely derailed the Redskins chances of winning the NFC East and making the playoffs. Goals that looked very realistic after the team started out 6-3. They are starting their 4th different quarterback. Starter Alex Smith and backup Colt McCoy both suffered season ending injuries. Mark Sanchez was a waste of space and it's now Josh Jackson calling the shots. 

It's not just injuries at quarterback, both sides of the ball have been decimated. There's also guys who are playing that aren't happy. It's really a complete mess all-around and I see no why they make a game of it on the road against the Jags. Jacksonville's offense isn't great, but that defense should have a field day here. Take Jacksonville! 

3* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants +

I think we are getting some decent value here with the Giants. New York won't have star wide out Odell Beckham Jr. He didn't play last week and the team put up 40 on the Redskins. Rookie running back Saquon Barkley is going to shoulder the load here and I think he's going to be difference maker. 

The Titans come in at 7-6 and are in the AFC Wild Card hunt, but I'm just not a big believer in this team. I just don't like teams that have to play perfectly to win ugly and that's really what Tennessee does. 

There's also a great system in play here. Home teams in non-conference games are 33-9 (79%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more against a division rival. Take New York! 

4* Packers/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE WEEK on Packers +

This is too many points for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to be getting. Rodgers is at his best when this team needs it the most and Green Bay's backs are firm against the wall. They need to win out to even have a shot at the playoffs, but there is a path for them to sneak in. 

I think the firing of Mike McCarthy was a good move. Few head coaches have underachieved more with a talent like Rodgers at quarterback. It certainly felt like Rodgers and him weren't on the same page. 

They looked like a different team in the first game after the McCarthy firing, as they cruised to an easy 34-20 win at home against the Falcons, which they led 34-7 going into the 4th quarter. 

I'm not saying they win the game outright, but it's definitely in play. Chicago has a great defense, maybe the best in the league, but I still got my concerns with the offense. Trubisky wasn't sharp in his first game back from injury and this Green Bay defense is been solid over the course of the season. 

Let's also not forget Rodgers has owned the Bears and he reminded them of that in Week 1, when he guided Green Bay back from a 20-0 deficit in the second half for a 24-23 win. Packers are also 35-19 ATS last 54 road games after failing to cover their previous 2 games. Take Green Bay!

5* NFL Browns/Broncos NO LIMIT Top Play on Browns +

Cleveland has been a different team since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were shown the door. They have already won 3 games under interim head coach Gregg Williams. That's as many as Jackson won in his entire tenure. 

A big reason for that is the talent they now have at quarterback. Baker Mayfield passes the eye test and is only going to keep getting better. Browns have won 3 of their last 4 and the lone loss against the Texans was a lot more competitive than the final score. Cleveland just didn't take care of the ball. 

While there chances of making the playoffs are slim, the fact that they even have a shot is enough for this team to play hard. I don't think Denver is looking at this the same way, especially after losing last week to a bad 49ers team. Not to mention all the key guys that are now out to injury for the Broncos. This line is begging for you take them as a slim home favorite, which is even more reason to like the Browns. Take Cleveland! 

4* NFL Texans/Jets VEGAS INSIDER on Texans -

The Jets simply don't have the talent to keep this thing competitive, especially after losing their leading rusher and receiver. I know the players and coaches are saying they are trying, but wins only hurt this team in the long run, as they lose out on a higher draft pick at an elite talent.

Sam Darnold was bad at taking care of the football and to no surprise he's making plenty of poor decisions in his rookie season. There's a really good chance Houston wins the turnover battle and that should be more than enough to get the separation we need to cover this spread. 

Deshaun Watson has been a covering machine on the road, going 6-3 ATS last 9. Houston as a team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record (Jets are 2-4). New York is also 0-4 last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take Houston! 

3* NFL Chargers/Chiefs VEGAS SHARP ANGLE  on Chargers +

This game features two of the best teams in the NFL and I just can't pass up the value here with the Chargers catching more than a field goal. The Chiefs were extremely fortunate to beat the Ravens at home last week. Kansas City had to convert two 4th down plays on a late touchdown drive to force overtime. 

That was the only 2nd half points the Chiefs were able to score before adding on the game-winning field goal in overtime. Prior to that KC hadn't won by fewer than a touchdown on their home field. The week before they were in serious jeopardy of losing at Oakland. 

Just so happens those are the first two games without Kareem Hunt. It's just not the same offense without Hunt, who was a master of picking up those extra yards and creating big plays. Now they don't have backup Spencer Ware and are down starting guard Cam Erving. 

This Chiefs defense is better at home and is getting back Eric Berry, but it's still one of the worst units in the league. Philip Rivers absolutely torched them in Week 1, throwing for 424 yards and 3 scores. Rivers and his receivers missed multiple deep passes that should have been converted. 

I think this is going to be very similar to the Baltimore game last week with the game being on the line in the 4th quarter and the road team having a good shot at winning outright. Take Los Angeles! 

3* Vikings/Seahawks MNF Vegas INSIDER on Vikings +

The books are begging for you take Seattle here. The Seahawks come in having won 3 straight and are off a 43-16 thrashing of the 49ers. The public has taken notice of this team and given their history of being a dominant home team, we are seeing close to 70% of the action coming in on Seattle. 

I just think there's a big overreaction here with the Seahawks. They got a lot of wins against teams who are either at the bottom of the standings or just not playing well. I just think Minnesota is on a different level and with all the negative talk out there about the Vikings and the offense being broken, I think they are going to come out on fire in this game. 

Seattle's defense is not great. They have given up 300+ passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games and the one game they didn't, they allowed 220 rushing yards. On the flip side of this the Seahawks' offense is all about the running game and that's just not a good recipe for success against a Mike Zimmer led defense. Take Minnesota! 

3* Rams/Bears SNF Vegas INSIDER on Bears +

LA is going to be a massive public play as a short 3-point favorite, but I'm not taking the bait from the books. I'll go ahead and take the 3-points as insurance, but I like the Bears to win this game outright. 

I just think Chicago has the talent defensively to make things extremely difficult on the Rams offense. They got playmakers all over the field and it's going to be tough sledding for Todd Gurley and the running game, as the Bears only give up 66 ypg and 3.1 yards/carry at home. 

It's not just the defense that makes Chicago a strong play, their offense has really gotten better under Matt Nagy and they will have Mitch Trubisky back under center after he missed the last two games. I think Nagy has had a very similar effect on his young quarterback to that of Rams head coach Sean McVay and how he transformed Goff a year ago. 

It's going to be electric at Soldier Field for a prime time night game and while the conditions could be a lot worse, I think the cold is not something a lot of these Rams players will be excited about playing in. Chicago has covered 15 of their last 21 home games and are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Take Chicago! 

4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on 49ers +

The Broncos have made some noise the past 3 weeks, stringing together 3 straight wins over the Chargers, Steelers and Bengals. However, they also just lose their top wide out in Emmanuel Sanders and top corner in Chris Harris Jr to season-ending injuries. I just think given those two injuries and just how mediocre this team is to start with, they got no business laying more than a field goal on the road. 

The 49ers are just 2-10 and come in having lost 3 in a row, but there is reason to be optimistic. After a couple of rough outings following his magical first start on MNF, Nick Mullens completed 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers last week.

It's a performance no one is really taking about because they managed just 16 points, but I think it's a great sign going into this game. He should be able to pick apart that Broncos secondary without Harris. Note that while they snuck out wins, Rivers threw for 384 yards against this Denver defense and Roethlisberger threw for 452. 

As for the Broncos, there's plenty of talk about Denver putting up over 200 yards rushing in their 24-10 win at Cincinnati, but that result is reason to be concerned. Broncos are just 5-12-1 ATS last 18 after allowing 18 or fewer points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after rushing for more than 150 yards. Look for the 49ers to at worst keep this close and likely win the game outright. Take San Francisco! 

5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens +

This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games. 

With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball. 

With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce. 

The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore! 

3* Jags/Titans TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Titans -

Home teams have a huge edge in these Thursday Night games, as they don't have to deal with the travel on top of playing on just 3 days of rest. I get the Jags were able to get a win in their first start after benching Bortles, but they had no business winning that game scoring just 6 points. 

Cody Kessler is not the answer at quarterback and the return of Fournette isn't going to a whole lot when the Titans defense doesn't have to respect the pass. Tennessee is only giving up 18.6 ppg at home and are coming into this one riding a huge wave of momentum after their big rally in a 26-22 win over the Jets. 

Jacksonville is 1-5 on the road this season, where they are getting outscored by nearly 10 points/game and that so called great defense of the Jags is giving up 6.1 yards/play away from home. Take Tennessee! 

4* Redskins/Eagles MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Redskins +

I really like the value here with Washington in this huge NFC East showdown on Monday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in off a 25-22 win tat home over the Giants, where they had to battle back from a 19-3 deficit in the 1st half. I get the only thing that really matters is they won the game, but to fall behind by 16-points to a team like the Giants in a game you had to have is a big concern for me. 

I just think given what we have seen from the Eagles in 2018, there's no way they should be laying almost a touchdown against a team like the Redskins. Washington has the better record at 6-5, but are coming in undervalued due to the loss of starting quarterback Alex Smith. I don't think there's a big drop-off from Smith to Colt McCoy and this Redskins defense is a lot better than they get credit for. 

Eagles defense hasn't been great and come in giving up 6.4 yards/play. That's worth noting as the Redskins are 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games in the 2nd half of the season vs teams that allow 6 or more yards/play. On the flip side of this, Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS last 6 vs teams that allow 6 or more yards/play. Take Washington! 

3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Jags +

This is one most people aren't going to be able to stomach, but the books know this and have inflated the number, creating big time value with the Jaguars.

Colts were a mere 3-point home favorite against Jacksonville in Week 10. That means had they played on a neutral field that week the line basically would have been a pick'em and if they had played in Jacksonville the Jags would have been favored by 3.

They have adjusted this number by more than a touchdown and it's only been 3 weeks since they played. Colts were fortunate to win that game. Jacksonville's Rashad Green hauled in his first catch of the year and while fighting for extra yards fumbled. Instead of having the ball 1st & 10 on the Colts 25 down 3 with 1:35 to play, Indy kneels 3 straight times to end the game. 

I get the idea is that the Jags are done for. They got no shot of the playoffs, won't have star running back Leondard Fournette, benched starting quarterback Blake Bortles and fired Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Cody Kessler will start and he's got experience.

It's not like the offense was good before, so I think worst case it's more of the same. At the same time, it becomes harder for the Colts to game-plan for the Jags offense with a new guy calling the plays. I still think there's some fight in this team and I'm not sold on Indianapolis being a real threat in the AFC. Take Jacksonville! 

4* NFC South GAME OF THE WEEK on Bucs +

I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a home division dog against the Panthers. Carolina is still getting a lot of love from the public, despite the results suggesting you should be betting against them. 

It started with that awful showing against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, where they lost 52-21. Most just chalked that up to Carolina playing bad on the road in a short week. Then they lost an inexcusable game at Detroit against a mediocre Lions team. Then last week they lose at home to Seattle in a game they gave away late. 

I just don't like how the direction we are headed with the Panthers and Tampa Bay is a team that has the talent to win this game and will be playing with a ton of confidence off their 27-9 win at home against the 49ers. Easily their best showing since their upset win at New Orleans in Week 1.

Jamies Winston got the start and shockingly the Bucs had zero turnovers. With the way this team can score, if they take care of the football they will be tough to beat.  I just don't see Carolina pulling away and worse case here the Panthers win by a field goal. Take Tampa Bay! 

5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +

I just think Detroit is too talented a team to be getting double-digits at home, especially in this spot. While we all know the Lions aren't a playoff team, the mindset for this team is they win out and they have a chance, so I expect a max effort here to save their season. 

On the flip side of this, the Rams are returning from their bye week and they went into their bye off that thrilling 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. LA has to be feeling pretty good about themselves and Detroit's not the kind of team that will get their attention.

I think the Rams come out flat here and we have seen the Lions pull off some impressive performances at home. They dominated the Patriots 26-10 early on in the season and later beat the Packers 31-23 and recently knocked off Carolina as a 4-point dog. 

Prior to beat the Chiefs the Rams had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games. As long as the public thinks they are the best team, they will be way overvalued. Take Detroit! 

5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys +

We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys. 

That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11. 

The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas! 

3* Titans/Texans MNF ATS DESTROYER on Titans +

Love the value here with Tennessee catching over a field goal here against the Texans. This thing should be closer to a Pick'em, but the books are inflating the number big time, knowing the public is going to pound the Texans. 

Tennessee's a hard team to back because they don't exactly look pretty when they win and they are fresh off an ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis. However, that was a horrible spot for the Titans, who laid it all on the line the previous week in a 34-10 home win over the Patriots. 

Houston on the other hand has won 7 straight since starting out 0-3. An impressive run, but it's hard to get really excited about it. The wins have come against the Colts, Cowboys, Bills, Jags, Dolphins, Broncos and Redskins. They have also been very fortunate in close games, as 5 of the 7 have come by a touchdown or less. 

Titans already beat Houston 20-17 earlier this season on their home field and I think Tennessee is playing much better than they were then. All signs point to a defensive battle and this one likely being decided by a field goal or less. Take Tennessee! 

3* NFL Undervalued Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos +

The books are making it pretty clear who they think will win this game, as they know the public will be all over the Steelers at this price. Pittsburgh has won 6 straight and off an improbable win at Jacksonville. Denver is 4-6 and won just 2 of their last 8 games. 

Broncos do come into this one off a big 23-22 upset win at the Chargers as a 7-point dog and will definitely be playing with a ton of confidence. For me, I just think this is a really tough spot for Pittsburgh. The Steelers used everything they had to rally late to steal the game at Jacksonville and are primed for a bit of a letdown here. 

Keep in mind we know Ben Roethlisberger and the offense doesn't perform at the same level on the road as they do at home and I think the thin air of Denver will make it that much harder on Pittsburgh to play well here. 

Broncos have gone an impressive 29-15 ATS in their last 44 home games vs a top tier team that's outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. Steelers are also 7-19-1 ATS last 27 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Denver! 

5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +

It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown. 

I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright. 

The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down.

Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami! 

3* NFL Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Chargers -

I got no problem laying the big number here with the Chargers at home against the Cardinals. This is a huge bounce back spot for Los Angeles, as they come in off an upset loss at home to the Broncos and can't afford to lose this one with a tough 4 game stretch to close out the year against the Steelers, Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs. 

Shouldn't be much of a problem here for the Chargers to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. Arizona couldn't even beat the Raiders on their home field and it's never good when a bad team is dealing with the injury bug. Several key players are not expected to be available for the Cardinals and they already didn't have the talent to compete. 

Chargers are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a failed cover and 6-1 ATS last 7 in November. Arizona is 3-7-1 ATS last 11 games in month of November and 1-10 ATS last 11 with a total of 42.5 to 49. Take Los Angeles! 

4* Patriots/Jets AFC East PLAY OF THE WEEK on Jets +

This is too good a price to pass up with the Jets as a double-digit division home dog against the Patriots. No surprise here to see New England overvalued, as the books no the public will be chomping at the bit to take the Patriots off their bye, which followed an ugly loss to the Titans, especially against a bad team like the Jets. 

The thing is, New York always seems to find a way to keep it close at home against New England. The last 5 times the Patriots visiting MetLife they have lost outright twice and the 3 wins have all come by a touchdown or less. Last year NE won 24-17 as a 9-point favorite. 

Patriots are also not the same team away from home. They are 7-0 at home and just 2-3 on the road. I think it's a plus here that the rookie Sam Darnold isn't start, as Belichick has owned rookie signal callers. 

The Jets are also coming off of their bye, but it's worth noting the last time they played they lost 41-10 at home to the Bills. That's because NY is 21-6 ATS in home games off a home loss. Take New York! 

4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks +

I like the value here with Seattle catching a field goal on the road against the Panthers. Carolina comes in having lost two straight and can't be trusted against the Seahawks. The Panthers got annihilated at Pittsburgh 52-21 on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and followed it up by giving away the game in a 20-19 loss at Detroit. 

Seattle on the other hand rallied from a double-digit deficit to knock off Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home on Thursday Night Football. Extra few days to prepare is a huge advantage for the Seahawks in this one. 

Seattle has been playing as well as anyone of late. They are 5-3 in their last 8 with 2 of those losses coming to the Rams in games they easily could have won and the other a loss to the red-hot Chargers. 

Seahawks get the perception as this bad road team, but they come in having covered 7 of their last 10 and are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 off a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take Seattle! 

5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Falcons +

The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up. 

Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that. 

I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta! 

5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions +

I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings. 

The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota. 

Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less. 

We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit! 

5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears -

I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should 

The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff. 

Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago! 

4* Eagles/Saints NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Eagles +

Simply too much value here with Philadelphia to pass up. The books have been absolutely destroyed by the Saints this season, as New Orleans has covered every spread they have faced since that ugly win against the Browns back in Week 2. That 7-0 ATS run has New Orleans way overvalued here against the Eagles. 

On the flip side of this, this is about as low as the perceptions has been on the Eagles. Prior to last week's ugly loss to the Cowboys at home, I think most thought this team would snap out of their early season funk. Either way, with a record of 4-5, this is do or die time for Philadelphia. 

There are just some teams that relish the role of the underdog and there's no question all the doubters played a big part in the Eagles Super Bowl run a year ago. I think we see that same nasty fight from this team and while it might not be enough to beat Brees and the Saints on the road, I think they can keep it within a touchdown. Take Philadelphia! 

4* Steelers/Jaguars AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +

Love the value here with Jacksonville as a near touchdown dog at home against the Steelers. This is it for the Jaguars, who have lost 5 straight and simply can't afford a loss here if they want to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. 

This is still a talented football team and they nearly made a big comeback last week in Indy, as they were driving to at worst force OT (already in FG range), but fumbled and lost 29-26. They got back their star running back in Fournette and the offense responded with more than 400 yards, as Bortles threw for 300+. 

Pittsburgh is simply way overvalued here due to the fact that they have covered 5 straight. We saw this team really struggle with Jacksonville last year. The Jaguars beat them in Pittsburgh twice last year. 30-9 in the regular-season and 45-42 in the playoffs. 

Jacksonville is also much better in the role of the dog. In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Jacksonville! 

5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR  on Packers +

There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals. 

While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense. 

The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay! 

3* Giants/49ers MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on 49ers -

I think the perception here is that these are two bad teams and the value is with New York as a dog. I'm not buying it. Everyone keeps thinking the Giants are better than what they have shown because they got two dynamic players in Odell Beckham and Saquan Barkley. The problem is, the offensive line can't block or pass protect and Eli Manning is simply not very good anymore. 

Add in the fact there's nothing for New York to play for with a record of 1-7 and this is not a team I would want anything to do with on the road. As for the 49ers, I think we can confidently say they are still playing hard after the effort they gave on Thursday Night Football last week against the Raiders. You can say what you want about Nick Mullens first start being a fluke because it came against a bad Oakland team, but he looked like the real deal. 

There's also something about Monday Night Football that brings out the best in San Francisco. The 49ers are a ridiculous 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games played on MNF. Take San Francisco! 

3* NFL Week 10 Vegas ATS SHOCKER on Raiders +

Oakland couldn't have looked much worse than they did in a 34-3 loss to the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. A game the Raiders were actually favored to win. The public isn't going to want anything to do with this team and the books know it. They have drastically inflated this line on the Chargers and there's just no way I'm passing up on a double-digit home dog. 

It's one thing for the Raiders to not show up against a bad 49ers team that had a guy no one heard of playing quarterback, but I'm confident they will show up here at home against a hated division rival. 

Last 15 times Derek Carr has been a dog of 6.5 to 13.5 points the Raiders have gone an impressive 10-5 ATS. Oakland is also 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Chargers are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. Take Oakland! 

4* NFC North Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK  on Lions +

There's simply too much value here with Detroit as a touchdown dog in Sunday's NFC North clash with the Bears. Chicago is sitting on top the division and off back-to-back blowout wins over the Jets and Bills. The Lions on the other hand have lost 2 straight and not exactly looked great in the process, scoring just 14 at home against the Seahawks and 9 last week at Minnesota. 

All this has the line here inflated to the point where you have to take a shot with the Lions. I get Chicago has a great defense, but I'm not the least bit sold on that Bears offense and this Detroit defense has been playing better of late. Matthew Stafford has also enjoyed recent trips to Soldier Field, winning 4 of 5. 

Bears are a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when coming off back-to-back covers as a favorite and the Lions are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after trailing by 10+ points at the half in each of their last 2. Take Detroit! 

3* NFL Week 10 Underdog PLAY OF TH DAY on Bengals +

I know Cincinnati is dealing with some injuries and likely won't have star wide A.J. Green on the field, but I think that only adds to the already awful spot for New Orleans. Most are just going to assume the Saints keep rolling after their big win over the Rams, but I just think this a massive flat spot. 

The last 4 games have really all been big time spots for New Orleans. The first was a home game against the Redskins on MNF where Brees was going for the passing yards all-time record. Then came back-to-back grinding road games against Baltimore and Minnesota before a showdown with LA for the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. On deck is a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs at home. 

Drew Brees has faced the Saints 3 times and gone just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. Andy Dalton on the other hand is an impressive 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last 9 times the Bengals have been listed as a home dog. Take Cincinnati! 

5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +

Big time value here with Tennessee as a touchdown dog at home against the Patriots. After that ugly start to the year New England has won 6 straight and gone 5-1 ATS in the process. After the books got killed in Week 9, they are making the public pay and this is just way too many points for the Patriots to be laying on the road against a good team like the Titans. 

I know Tennessee doesn't always look pretty, but they are 4-4 and have covered 5 of their last 7. The most recent being a 28-14 win at Dallas as a 4-point dog. This Titans defense is way better than they get credit for. Their strength is against the pass, as they rank 7th allowing just 239.0 ypg. 

While the offense can look anemic at times, this Patriots defense is one they should be able to move the ball against. NE is allowing 23.5 points/game, 420 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play on the road. I don't think there's a ton of difference from Tennessee and say the Bears, yet the NE was a mere 2-point favorite at Chicago and needed a lot to go right to win that game. 

Titans are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Tennessee!