Sports Picks & Predictions

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Titans

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NFL Situational ATS Vegas INSIDER on Packers +

Great spot here to take a shot on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers as a near touchdown underdog. Last week Green Bay was a near double-digit dog at the Rams and they nearly won the game outright, losing by just two points. I don't know why this team isn't getting more love than they are, but there's not many times I won't take this may points with Rodgers. 

Green Bay has the numbers of a top team, as they are 5th in the NFL in total offense (412.1 ypg) and 12th in total defense (340.9 ypg). Patriots have won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch, which is part of the reason we are getting the number we are. I know it's hard to win in New England this time of year, but I think the Packers need this game more and I like their chances of at worst keeping it within the number. 

Packers are 35-18 ATS in their last 53 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and there's a great system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are a strong passing team (completing 60% or better) and have gained 6.75 or more yards/attempt in each of their last 4 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Green Bay! 

3* NFL Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Browns +

The Chiefs not only were the talk of the NFL early on, they opened the season a perfect 7-0 ATS before finally failing to cover last week as a 10-point home favorite against the Broncos. KC was in a good spot to cover, as they were up 30-14 in the 2nd half. I don't think that will keep the public from backing the Chiefs and I think there's a ton of value here going against them.

The Browns haven't been as good as they had hoped and their most recent blowout loss at Pittsburgh resulted in head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley getting fired. Most will just think Cleveland has no shot of keeping this close, but I like interim head coach Gregg Williams (defensive coordinator) and you almost always see a team play their best after a big coaching change. 

The Browns got the talent defensively, to get pressure on Mahomet and force him into some mistakes. This is also a big letdown spot for the Chiefs, who have to think they can just show up here and win. KC's defense has played well of late at home, but that stop unit has really struggled on the road. Look for Baker Mayfield to have a big game here and maybe even lead the Browns to an upset win. Take Cleveland! 

4* Steelers/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE WEEK on Ravens -

I like the value here with Baltimore laying less than a field goal at home against the Steelers. I think the fact that Pittsburgh has won 3 straight, while the Ravens have lost 3 of 4 has people thinking we will see a different result than the last time these two teams played (Baltimore won 26-14 at Pittsburgh earlier this season)

Not me. I expect a similar outcome with the Ravens defense keeping the Steelers in check and Baltimore  winning here by double-digits. The Ravens let one get away at Cleveland off that big win over Pittsburgh, then suffered a crushing loss at home to the Saints and failed to bounce back not eh road against a good Carolina team. I don't think Baltimore has regressed at all and they will take care of business at home. 

History suggest Pittsburgh will struggle against the number after their recent success. The Steelers are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5. Pittsburgh is also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Ravens come in having gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a loss and 8-3 in their last 11 after losing their previous game by more than 14 points. Take Baltimore! 

5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills +

The public perception couldn't be any worse on the Bills right now. No one wants anything to do with backing Buffalo, especially given that Nathan Peterman is expected to start. I get it, but there's just too much value here with the Bills as a double-digit home dog. 

Chicago's a good team, but they aren't the Patriots and shouldn't be laying this many points on the road, especially with their limitations offensively and how strong Buffalo is on the defensive side of the ball. It was a bit of a fluke the Bills didn't cover the 13.5-point spread agains the Patriots. I not only think they will cover this big number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. 

I know there's talk out there about the Bears not looking past the Bills, but that's easier said than done, especially with two big division home games on deck. I think the difference here will be Buffalo's defense taking away Chicago's running game and making Trubisky beat them. 

Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game at home and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game  where they gained 6 or more yards/play. Take Buffalo! 

4* Raiders/49ers NFC West GAME OF THE WEEK on 49ers -

San Francisco should have no problem here cashing in a win against the Raiders. This has been a complete disaster of a first season for Oakland under new head coach Jon Gruden. It started with the team trading away not just their best defensive player, but one of the best the NFL has to offer in Khalil Mack. The defense clearly misses him, as Oakland enters tonight's game giving up 31.1 points/game. 

Prior to last week's game against the Colts they traded star wide out Amari Cooper to Dallas. While I think a lot of the players already threw in the white towel on this season, I think that was the icing on the cake. Raiders responded just as you would expect and lost 42-28 at home to the Colts. 

I know this is the battle of the bay and all that, but that's not really a thing when you have a matchup of two 1-win teams. I'm sure Oakland will show up against some of the top teams later on, but I don't think they care about this game at all. Most players already want nothing to do with playing on the road in these Thursday game on short rest. 

With or without C.J. Beathard at quarterback, I think the 49ers win here without much problem, as this team at least still has some fight in them. Note that SF backup quarterback Nick Mullens did flash some nice potential in the preseason and has a great offensive mind calling the plays. Take San Francisco! 

5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills +

We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it. 

There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago. 

The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been. 

I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! 

4* Redskins/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE WEEK on Giants +

The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Giants right now. I'm showing close to 70% of the tickets are coming in on the Redskins and anytime you have around 70% or more on one side of an NFL game, you almost always want to be on the other side. 

While the losses keep piling up, the Giants have shown some flashes of late that they are on the right track. They only lost by 3 points at Atlanta last time out, which was their fourth loss this season by 7 or less. Washington is a decent team, but they got no business being a road favorite against a division rival. The last time the Redskins played on the road they got annihilated by the Saints 43-19. 

Giants have gone a solid 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS with Eli Manning as the starter at home against Washington. We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of the Redskins. Favorites off an upset win as a division home dog, who have a winning record and are playing a team with a losing record are a mere 5-23 (18%) ATS since 1983. Take New York! 

4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks

I like the value here with Seattle getting points against the Lions. The Seahawks have quietly won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss being a 2-point defeat to the Rams, where they should have won outright. A lot of people just threw this team under the bus after their 0-2 start and it's got them way undervalued here. 

Detroit on the other hand is getting way too much respect right now. The Lions have won 3 of 4 and have covered 5 in a row. I'm just not all that impressed with this team and with big division road games on deck against Minnesota and Chicago, I think they have a hard time getting up for this one. 

Not only do I think Seattle is the better team, but the Seahawks have a massive edge in rest coming off of their bye week. Seattle has covered 12 of their last 16 vs strong offensive teams like the Lions, who averaged 375 or more yards/game. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after rushing for 150 or more yards in 2 straight games. Lions are just 7-19-2 in their last 28 off a game where they scored 30 or more and 4-13 ATS off a double-digit road win. Take Seattle! 

5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +

I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium. 

Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here."

Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6. 

Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville! 

4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Bears +

The books are begging the public to take the Patriots here as a short road favorite, but my money is on the Bears to cover the number at home, as I look for Chicago to win this game outright. New England comes in off that impressive 43-40 shootout win at home over the Chiefs and have won 3 straight overall, but those last 3 have all come against soft defensive teams in Miami, Indy and KC. 

Chicago isn't just a good defensive team, they are one of the best in the NFL. The Bears are 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 19.2 ppg and 10th in total defense, allowing a mere 344 yards/game. We saw the Tom Brady and the Patriots offense really struggle against a physical Jaguars defense on the road earlier this season. With Gronk not going to be available, I think it's going to be really hard on New England to move the ball. 

While the Bears offense has been limited at times, they are coming off two really strong performances. They had 48 points and nearly 500 total yards of offense at home agains the Bucs and 28 points and 467 yards at Miami last week. Patriots defense has plenty of holes for Trubisky and that Bears offense to exploit, as NE is allowing 28.5 ppg and 447 ypg on the road this season.

Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Jags - 

This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. 

The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston. 

I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team. 

I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville! 

4* Broncos/Cardinals TNF NO-BRAINER on Cardinals +

I think the books have the wrong team favored on Thursday Night Football. I just think the perception here is that Denver is the better team, despite the fact that they have lost 4 straight. I'm just not buying it. The Broncos defense isn't what it use to be and Case Keenum isn't playing anywhere close to how he played last year with the Vikings. 

Arizona is a bad team and will likely be picking very early in next year's draft, but this is a game they know they can win and I expect them to show up in a big way at home in prime time. Let's not forget how big an advantage it is to play at home in these Thursday Night games. The home team is 5-1 thru the first 6 Thursday Night games. 

Josh Rosen has shown some flashes and with how bad the Broncos run defense has been, I look for David Johnson to have a big day and that's only going to open up things for Rosen. I also love that Von Miller has guaranteed a win for Denver, as that's only going to light the fire even more for the Cardinals. Take Arizona! 

4* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Broncos +

The Rams are once again being way overvalued by the books on the road. Last week Los Angeles was a 7-point road favorite at Seattle and were fortunate to leave with a 33-31 win, as they went into the 4th quarter trailing 31-24. 

Given all the hype around this team, they are going to keep getting max efforts from their opponents, as everyone wants to be the one to give them that first loss. Denver not only wants to be the Rams, but they desperately need a win after losing 3 straight. 

The Broncos should have beat the Chiefs at home a few weeks back. It took some ridiculous play by Mahomes in the 4th quarter for KC to escape with a win. I think Denver has a really good shot here of not just covering, but winning this game outright. 

The Rams are use to the nice weather in LA and it could be a challenge for them in this one, as temps are expected to be well below freezing at kickoff. 

Broncos are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against elite teams like the Rams, who are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and have won these contests by almost 10 points/game (27.8 - 18.4). Take Denver! 

3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Browns +

After going 0-16 last year, the Browns came into this season way undervalued and that's evident by the fact that they are sitting at 4-1 ATS through their first 5 games. I love how this team bounced back from that crushing loss at Oakland with a 12-9 win over division rival Baltimore last week. 

This team is still getting no respect, as they are basically a pick'em at home against a Chargers team that hasn't been all that impressive. LA is 3-2, but their 3 wins have come against the Bills, 49ers (without Garoppolo) and Raiders. In their two big step up games against the Chiefs and Rams, they lost by double-digits. 

It seems like every year the Chargers are hit hard with the injury bug and 2018 has been no different. The defense is still without not just their best player, but one of the elite defense players in the game in Joey Bosa. Linebackers Jatavis Brown and Kyzir White are both expected to miss this game with injuries. 

I look for Baker Mayfield and that rejuvenated Browns offense to have a lot of success in this one, while the underrated Cleveland defense makes life miserable for Rivers and the Chargers offense. 

LA won and covered in a 26-10 home win over the Raiders last week. That's worth noting, as the Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win by more than 14 points and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. Take Los Angels! 

5* Eagles/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +

The Eagles continue to get way too much respect from the books after last year's Super Bowl win. Philadelphia was expected to defend their title, but they haven't even looked like a playoff team to this point. The Eagles are 2-3 with their only wins at home against the Falcons and Colts and they could have easily lost both of those games, as both Atlanta and Indy had the ball deep in Eagles territory with a chance to take the lead late. 

The two biggest problems for Philadelphia have been the injuries that have piled up on the offensive side of the ball and the defense not playing anywhere close to as well as it did a season ago. Carson Wentz is just fine, but the supporting cast is really limited with the likes of Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace all sidelined. 

The Giants are sitting at 1-4 and have been a big disappointment, but they are coming off their best performance of the season in a mere 2-point loss at Carolina. The offense put up 31 points on a good Panthers defense, who were off a bye and I think they finally got something going on that side of the ball. I look for the G-men to deliver in what feels like a must-win game. Take New York! 

4* Redskins/Saints MNF NO-BRAINER on Redskins +

The Saints are way over-valued here at home agains the Redskins on Monday Night Football. With how much the public loves to bet MNF and the Saints, no surprise to see New Orleans over-priced at home. I know the Saints are sitting at 3-1, but they could easily be 1-3. They should have lost at home to the Browns in Week 2 and were fortunate to leave Atlanta with a 43-37 overtime win in Week 3. 

While New Orleans is getting way too much love, the Redskins are flying under the radar right now. Washington comes in at 2-1 in the first year with Alex Smith at quarterback. Smith has changed the dynamic of the offense, as it's much more balanced and less turnover-proned. 

What really stands out to me is just how good this Redskins defense is playing to start the new season. Washington ranks 7th against the run and 3rd against the pass, as they come in allowing just 278 yards/game. We saw a good Cleveland defense going into New Orleans and really shutdown Brees and that Saints high-powered attack and I expect the Saints to struggle here. 

Not only will they have a hard time moving the ball against this Redskins defense, but Smith and that Washington offense are going to look for long drives that eat up clock and keep Brees on the sidelines. Something they should be able to do with how poorly the Saints defense has played. 

The other big key here that I think is getting completely overlooked, is the fact that Washington is coming off a bye. Bye weeks are huge in the NFL and I think with the extra time to prepare and get guys healthy, the Redskins could win this one outright. Take Washington! 

3* Ravens/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE DAY  on Browns +

Public is going to be all over Baltimore as a short road favorite, but this is not the time to back the Ravens. Baltimore is off an impressive win at Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football and are sitting strong going into Week 5 at 3-1, but it's a lot tougher than people realize to win back-to-back on the road, especially against division opponents. 

Cleveland was a questionable call away from a win over the Raiders last week and I really like what I've seen out of rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. This is a legit Browns offense with him under center and while the defense struggled last week on the west coast, I expect them to return to form at home. This is not an elite Baltimore offense by any stretch. 

Ravens defense has been great the last two weeks, holding both the Broncos and Steelers to just 14 points. However, that sets a very profitable spot to fade Baltimore. Road teams that are outscoring teams by 10+ ppg are just 9-32 (22%) ATS after holding two straight teams to 14 or fewer points. Take Cleveland! 

5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +

Cincinnati is getting way to much respect here at home. The Bengals pulled off an incredible 37-36 win over the Falcons last week, winning outright as a 3.5-point dog. Miami on the other hand lost 38-7 at New England. 

I just think we have seen a big overreaction to the Dolphins loss. They couldn't have caught the Patriots at a worse time, as New England was 100% locked in after losing two straight. The Patriots would have done that to a lot of teams. This is still the same team that started out 3-0 and we can be sure we get the very best they have to offer off that embarrassing loss. 

Cincinnati has started out strong, but I don't think this Bengals team is anything special. They got a lot of keys guys out with injury right now and are running out of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Tyler Eifert is on IR, second year wide out John Ross is questionable with a groin injury and their top two backs, Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard are also both questionable. 

I think this should be closer to the Bengals as a 3-point favorite, giving us almost a field goal worth of value on a team that is more than capable of winning this game outright. Dolphins have also covered 5 of their last 6 after a poor offensive game where they had fewer than 150 passing yards. Take Miami! 

4* Chiefs/Broncos (MNF) ATS NO-BRAINER on Broncos +

The Chiefs have gotten off to an impressive 3-0 start behind the sensational play of 1st-year starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who set a new NFL record with 13 TD passes in the first 3 games of the season. This amazing start has KC way overvalued here as a road favorite against a division rival. 

The Broncos have started out 2-1 and are greatly improved over last year, as they now have a legit offense with Case Keenum at quarterback and the emergence of running back Phillip Lindsay, who is averaging 6.0 yards/carry over the first 3 games. An improved offense is all Denver needed to get back to being a playoff contender, as they have a top tier defense behind Von Miller and company. 

As good as Mahomes has been, he has struggled against the blitz and Denver ranks in the Top 5 in the league in percentage of plays that they blitz on. Look for that Broncos defense to slow down the high-powered KC attack, while the offense should be able to move the ball at will against a horrible Chiefs defense. 

Broncos are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 home games against top tier teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. Take Denver! 

4* Saints/Giants NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Giants +

The Giants are way undervalued here getting over a field goal at home. In fact, I think it should be New York that is the favorite. New Orleans is simply getting too much respect for their 2-1 start, as the Saints could just as easily be 0-3. 

New Orleans lost at home in Week 1 to the Bucs and should have lost at home in Week 2 to the Browns. They were also fortunate to win in OT at Atlanta in Week 3, a victory that was greatly aided by the Falcons missing some key pieces on the defensive side of the ball. 

The Giants are just 1-2, but could easily be sitting at 2-1, as they let one get away at home against the Jaguars in Week 1. New York avoided an 0-3 start with an impressive 27-22 win at Houston and it was by far the best the Giants offense had looked to this point. Given how bad the Saints defense has looked early on, look for Eli Manning and company to have another big day here. 

The key here is New York's defense is better than it gets credit for. The strength of the Giants defense has been their secondary, which ranks 11th in the NFL giving up just 232 ypg. We all know the Saints offense is built around Brees and that passing attack, so this is a great matchup for NY. Not to mention the Saints offense tends to struggle on the road in games played outside. 

New Orleans is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a cover. Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home vs strong passing teams that are completing 64% or more of their attempts. Take New York! 

3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bears +

This is too good a price to pass up on Chicago at home. The Bears are one of the most improved teams in the league and should be 3-0 if not for that big collapse on the road against Green Bay in Week 1. 

While the Bucs are also 2-1, they came back to earth last time out, losing at home to the Steelers on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay lost by a final score of just 30-27, but were down 30-10 at the half. Really tough spot here for the Bucs playing no a short week of rest and I just don't see Tampa Bay's offense being able to do enough here against an elite Bears defense. 

The even bigger key here is that this Bucs defense is one the Bears' offense can exploit. Tampa Bay comes in ranked 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 433.4 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, allowing 362.7 ypg. While two of those games were against Brees and Roethlisberger, they also allowed Nick Foles to throw for 334 yards against them. 

Look for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense to put up their best numbers of 2018 and that should be more than enough for Chicago to pull away for the win and cover. Adding to this is the fact that the Bucs are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 vs bad passing teams that are averaging 5.2 or less yards/attempt. Bears are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 at home, including a 5-0-1 ATS mark in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Chicago! 

4* Vikings/Rams Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Vikings +

This is just too good a price to pass up on the Vikings, who I think are more than capable of going into LA and winning this game outright. Minnesota is way undervalued after that ugly loss to the Bills and the Rams are way overvalued right now after starting out a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. 

If you remember back to last year, Minnesota beat the Rams 24-7 on their home field. They held the high-powered LA offense to just 254 yards and 15 first downs. They also dominated the time of possession 37:22 to 22:38.

I expect the Vikings to use a similar game-plan in this one, though I also think they are more than capable of winning this game in a shootout. The Rams defense looked great against a couple of bad offenses in the Raiders and Cardinals. It wasn't nearly as good last week against the Chargers and will go into this one missing both their star corners in Talib and Peters. They will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. 

This is a statement game for Minnesota and I just don't see the Rams pulling away and winning here by a touchdown or more. I see this one being extremely competitive right down to the wire, making this an easy play with the big spread. Take Minnesota! 

4* NFL Sunday Night Football ATS NO BRAINER on Lions +

The public perception couldn't be much worse on the Lions after their 0-2 start, especially the ugly loss at home in prime time against the Jets in Week 1. That combined with the public wanting to jump on the Patriots off a loss, has Detroit showing some exceptional value here at home on Sunday Night Football. 

The Lions might not be a great team, but they are going to play their hearts out for their new head coach Matt Patricia, as he came to Detroit from New England. Not to mention their season is pretty much on the line, as it's no secret that your chances of making the playoffs are slim to none if you start the season 0-3. I'm not saying they win the game, but I don't think it's out of the question. 

New England is beat up right now. They got multiple key players on both sides of the ball injured and the Patriots are a team that has consistently started out slow. NE is also a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a losing home record. 

We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30+ points in their last game are 120-72 (63%) ATS when facing a team off a loss by 10 or more. Take Detroit! 

4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Colts +

The public is all over the Eagles with the news that Carson Wentz is making his much anticipated debut of 2018 and it has Philadelphia way overvalued here at home against the Colts. Indy is a legit playoff threat in the AFC with Andrew Luck back at quarterback. 

After blowing a 13-point lead in their opener at home against the Bengals, Indianapolis went on the road and put it on the Redskins in a 21-9 win. We knew the offense would be improved with Luck back under center, but the perception is the Colts have no defense. That's not the case and even with Wentz back in the lineup, I think the Eagles offense will struggle here. 

Philadelphia is missing a ton of key pieces on the offensive side of the ball. Alshon Jeffery is still out with a shoulder injury. Fellow wide out Mike Wallace and running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles will join him on the sidelines. 

Colts have thrived as a dog in this price range with their signal caller under center. Indy is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points with Luck at quarterback. Take Indianapolis! 

5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on 49ers +

The Chiefs are getting way too much respect from the books after their 2-0 start. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL after setting a new NFL record with 10 touchdowns passes in the first two games of the season. While the Chief's offense is dynamic, the defense is one of the worst in the league. 

Kansas City's secondary has been an absolute joke. They let Philip Rivers throw for 418 yards in Week 1 and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 442 yards. Expect a monster day here from Jimmy Garoppolo and the entire 49ers offense. 

I just think when you play defense as poorly as the Chiefs do, it's only a matter a time before it bites you. San Francisco's defense hasn't been great early on, but will be getting back a huge piece this week in linebacker Reuben Foster, who was suspended the first two games. I think the 49ers get a few more stops and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this game outright. 

There's also a great system in play favoring a San Francisco cover. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't force a turnover in their previous game are a mere 41-81 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting the 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Take San Francisco! 

5* Jets/Browns TNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jets +

The Cleveland Browns have won 1 game dating back to the start of the 2016 season. They had their chances in each of the first two weeks of 2018 to get a win, but continue to find ways to lose games late. This team has no business laying this many points against any team right now. 

The Jets came out with an impressive 48-17 win at Detroit on Monday Night Football, but laid an egg on short rest in a 20-12 home loss to the Dolphins. I think that poor showing against Miami has people once again second-guessing this team and that's created some big time value here with New York in this matchup. 

No question the Browns defense is improved, but I don't think it's as good as people are making it out to be. They have benefited greatly from the opposing team making costly mistakes, as they have 8 takeaways in 2 games. At some point the turnovers won't be there and this defense will get exposed. Look for Darnold to have a big game and while I'll gladly take the points, I fully expect New York to win this game outright. 

Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and have cashed 4 of the last 5 tickets on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland on the other hand is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 3-points or less. Take New York! 

3* Seahawks/Bears MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bears -

A lot of people are going to look at this line and think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Bears strong showing in Week 1 against the Packers on Sunday Night Football, a game they somehow managed to lose after being up 20-0 in the 2nd half. I think the line is more than justified and you could argue that given the injuries for Seattle this line should be closer to a touchdown. 

Seattle's offensive line is once again one of the worst in the league and they could be without starting guard D.J. Fluker. The Seahawks front was completely outmatched by Von Miller and the Broncos in Week 1, as Denver sacked Russell Wilson 6 times. Expect more of the same from a Chicago defense front that was already good before they added in former Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. Note that the Broncos only managed 1 sack on Sunday against Derek Carr and the Raiders. 

However, it's not so much about how the Bears defense is going to own the Seahawks offensive line, but the fact that Chicago's offense should be able to move the ball against this Seattle defense. The Seahawks gave up 470 total yards and allowed Case Keenum to throw for 329 yards and 3 scores in Week 1. As limited as Tribusky is, with Seattle missing their two star linebackers in Wright and Wagner, Chicago will be able to move the ball on the ground and that should allow for some big plays from Tribusky on play-action. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bears won this in a blowout. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +

This Jaguars team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. Jacksonville had the Patriots on the ropes in last year's AFC Championship Game and that was in New England, where few have been able to just keep games close against the Patriots in the postseason. I like the Jaguars to get their revenge here in Week 2 at home. 

This is all about the matchup for me and as good as Tom Brady is, I think that Patriots offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against this top-tier Jacksonville defense. The Patriots are thin up front on the offensive line. They traded away Nate Soldier, saw their top draft pick in Isaiah Wynn land on IR and now starting right tackle Marcus Cannon is questionable to play. New England also lost running back Jeremy Hill to IR and could be without two of their top backups at running back, as both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are questionable. 

I just don't see the Pats being able to run the ball in this one and that's going to let that loaded Jags front pin their ears and come after Brady. Over the years, the one big neutralizer to Brady and that Pats offense is a great pass rush. 

Say what you want about Blake Bortles, he picked apart this New England defense last year and I expect him to make enough plays here for the Jaguars to win this game outright. Take Jacksonville! 

4* AFC East GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dolphins +

This game was expected to be around a pick'em until the Jets went on the road and laid it on the Lions 48-17 in an outright win as a 7-point dog. After throwing a pick six on the very first play of his NFL career, Sam Darnold completed 16 of his next 20 attempts for 198 yards and 2 scores. The perception here is that it was an impressive win against a good Lions team, but I'm not so sure Detroit won't finish last in the NFC North this year. 

The defense for the Jets played outstanding, holding the Lions to just 339 yards and forcing 5 turnovers, but it was revealed after the game that New York basically new what Detroit was running before they snapped the ball. I'm just not buying the defense was as good as it looked. 

As for Miami, they won 27-20 at home over the Titans and it was an impressive day for Ryan Tannehill, as he was 20 of 28 for 230 yards. The Dolphins also had 120 yards rushing on just 29 attempts. This is a different offense with Tannehill under center. People forget they went 10-6 with him in 2016. I actually think the Dolphins are the better team here, making this an easy play with them catching a field goal. 

Teams who had a losing record the previous year and are listed as home favorites in conference games are a mere 87-142 ATS since 1983. That's a 62% system in favor of the Dolphins covering. Take Miami! 

3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bills +

The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to to do with the Bills after how bad they looked in Week 1 against the Ravens. That was on the road against a good Baltimore team. They should be more competitive at home and I liked them going to Josh Allen. The offense couldn't have been any worse than it was with Nathan Peterman at quarterback. 

Look for them to be able to move the ball here against a Chargers defense that is missing some big pieces. Most notably up front, where Joey Bosa is sidelined with a foot injury and Corey Liuget is serving a 4-game suspension. I'm not saying Buffalo will win the game, but they should be able to keep within this inflated number. 

Bills are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after allowing 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Chargers on the other hand are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 off a straight up loss, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 350 or more yards and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Take Buffalo! 

3* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY  on Titans +

The public is all over the Texans in this one and it's created some big time value here with the Titans as a home division dog. Tennessee lost 20-27 at Miami, which is no easy place to play this early in the season and the game got delayed twice. This team is better than people give them credit for and they have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a SU loss and are winning by almost a touchdown on average in this spot. 

Everyone remembers what Deshaun Watson did last year in his brief stint before being injured and I think they just assume he's going to go right back to being that same guy. I just think it could take some time. He certainly was 17 of 34 for a 176 yards against the Patriots in Week 1. Keep in mind he torched New England for 301 yards and 2 scores on 22 of 33 passing last year. I look for him to struggle again and for the Titans to win this one outright. Take Tennessee! 

4* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK  on Bucs +

No one was giving the Bucs a shot at even being competitive against the Saints in Week 1 and they went into New Orleans and won 48-40 behind backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think there's a perception that there's a huge drop-off from Jameis Winston to Fitzpatrick and I'm not so sure there is. Most were quick to just the Saints didn't come to play and that's why Tampa Bay won, but I think that only adds fuel to the fire here the Bucs. Not that they weren't going to show up at home against the defending Super Bowl champs. 

The Eagles were a bit lucky to win their opener over the Falcons at home. With Wentz still sidelined and some other key players out for Philadelphia, I think they are going to have a tough time matching the intensity of Tampa Bay. I know how good Foles was in the playoffs, but the offense was horrible with him under center in the preseason and it didn't look good against Atlanta. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I fully expect the Bucs to win outright. Take Tampa Bay! 

4* NFL AFC NORTH GAME OF THE WEEK  on Bengals +

The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Baltimore couldn't have looked any better in their 47-3 blowout win in Week 1 over the Bills. Props to the Ravens for taking care of business at home, but Buffalo looks like the worst team in the NFL.

The Bengals also won in Week 1, as they went on the road and beat Andrew Luck and the Colts 34-23. Yet this is not a team that's getting a lot of love. Most just see that as Cincinnati beating a bad team, but that's much improved Indy team with Luck back under center. I love the fact that the Bengals are getting no respect for that win and in this game, as they are well aware of the Ravens being favored. 

Baltimore is just 6-16 ATS in their last in their last 22 road games off a win by 21 or more points, while the Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning record and 18-7-2 over their last 27 games played in September. Take Cincinnati! 

4* Rams/Raiders MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Raiders +

The public is all over the Rams in this one, as LA is the talk of the NFL after last year's breakout season and then all the big additions they made in the offseason. I'm not saying the Rams won't be a great team, but I think they could struggle early. They got a lot of new pieces and it's going to take some time for them to gel and learn how to play together. Keep in mind the Rams' starters basically didn't play at all in the preseason. 

The Raiders on the other hand are a team that I believe will be coming into the season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving this team much of a shot, especially after they traded away one of the best defensive players in the game in Khalil Mack. I still got a lot of confidence in Gruden's ability as a head coach. He's going to bring a power-running game to Oakland, which I think will work wonders for getting Derek Carr back on track. 

It's also worth pointing out that these Week 1 home dogs on Monday Night Football have not been great at just covering, but winning the game outright. Look for the Raiders to keep it close and potentially steal this one late. Take Oakland! 

4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Vikings -

There's a lot of excitement around this 49ers team after how they finished the 2017 season once Jimmy Garoppolo took over as the starer. I just think it's a major overreaction and has San Francisco way overvalued to start out 2018. I certainly don't see them extending that win streak on the road against one of the elite teams in the NFC. 

You can be sure the Vikings have heard all the hype around Garoppolo and that 49ers team. Not that you need any extra fuel for a season-opener, but I think Minnesota will be out to make a statement in this one. Keep in mind the Vikings have 10 starters back from a defense that was the best in the NFL last year. They were No. 1 in total defense (275.9 ypg) and No. 1 in scoring defense (15.8 ypg). Not to mention the one starter they lost was defensive tackle Tom Johnson and they replaced him with a former Pro Bowler in Sheldon Richardson. 

It's also worth pointing out that Minnesota's defense only gave up 13.8 ppg and 261 ypg at home last year, where they went 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS. 

I also don't think the 49ers defense will be able to slow down the Vikings new look offense that now has Kirk Cousins as their starting QB. I look for home team to pull away early and win here by double-digits. Take Minnesota! 

3* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bucs +

The Saints are getting way too much love here from the books in Week 1. I get New Orleans is great at home and are considered a legit Super Bowl contender, but no way should they be laying double-digits against a division rival. 

Tampa Bay will be without starting quarterback Jameis Winston, who is suspended, but I think this team will be able to move the ball behind talented veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had a 7-3 TD-INT ratio in limited action last year. He's got two big time weapons at wide receiver in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, plus two talented tight ends in Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. 

I also think people are overlooking this Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs are loaded up front after bringing in Jason Pierre-Paul to team up with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. I'm not saying they are going to shutdown Brees and the Saints offense, but I think they get enough stops to keep it close. Take Tampa Bay! 

3* NFL Week 1 ATS SHOCKER  on Giants +

I think we are seeing a big overreaction with this line based on how these teams finished up last season. The Jaguars finally broke through in 2017, winning the AFC South and nearly took out the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The Giants were a complete mess and finished just 3-13, but are primed for a big bounce back season and should not be a dog at home. 

Everyone is expecting the Giants offense to be improved with a healthy OBJ and the addition of prized rookie running back Saquon Barkley, but it's more than that. They also made some big improvements on the offensive line. New head coach Pat Shurmur is also one of the top offensive minds in the league and was the guy responsible for making Case Keenum look like a top tier signal caller last year with the Vikings. 

The improved running game is going to do wonders for the Giants defense, who I think will thrive in their new 3-4 look. They should be able to hold their own against a very average Jaguars offense, which is still going to be limited by quarterback Blake Bortles. Take New York!  

5* NFL Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Colts -

This is just too good a price to pass up on Indianapolis at home. The Colts should have no problem here taking down the Bengals in Week 1. There's no doubt in my mind that Indy is going to be one of the most improved teams in the league with Andrew Luck back healthy at quarterback. I just think he hasn't played in so long that people are skeptical of taking them. 

The Colts are 26-11 SU and 24-12 ATS with Luck as a starter in home games. On the flip side of this, Bengals' starter, Andy Dalton, is a mere 15-25 in 40 career starts as an underdog. I've never really been a big fan of Dalton and there's just not a ton to like about this Cincinnati team, especially on offense. 

Last year the Bengals averaged just 18.1 ppg and were dead last in the NFL at 280.5 yards/game. They didn't do anything well, ranking 27th in passing and 31st in rushing. Little was done to improve that side of the ball. The defense also wasn't great (ranked bottom half of the league in both scoring and total defense) and has been on the decline ever since Mike Zimmer left to be the head coach at Minnesota. Not to mention they will be without their best defender for the first four games in Vontaze Burfict (suspended). Take Indianapolis! 

5* AFC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bills +

Buffalo is a team the public wants absolutely nothing to do with going into the season and there's no question the books have inflated this line on the Ravens. A lot of people were way down on the Bills last year, especially after they traded away the likes of Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Reggie Ragland and Marcell Dareus. 

All this team did was finish 9-7 and snap a 17-year playoff drought, making it in as a Wild Card. While Buffalo does lose starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the team is confident that Nathan Peterman can hold the fort down until rookie Josh Allen is ready to take over. Peterman had a rough go of things after he was force into action as a rookie last year, but he looked sharp in the preseason, completing 33 of 41 (80%) of his attempts for 431 yards with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio. 

Buffalo won a lot of games last year leaning on their running game and a defense that forced 25 takeaways. They know how to win sloppy and I expect them to hang around against a Ravens team that isn't known for blowing out opponents. 

Ravens are just 18-21 ATS as a home favorite with Joe Flacco as their quarterback and the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 season openers and were a perfect 3-0 ATS in September last season. Take Buffalo! 

5* Falcons/Eagles Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Falcons +

It's just a given that the defending Super Bowl champ is going to be overvalued on the spread the following season. I know this line has dropped some with Wentz not playing, but I still think there's a lot of value with Atlanta. 

Nick Foles put on a ridiculous performance last year filling in for Wentz, but this guy has been hit or miss his whole career. I think we already saw signs of things not being as good as they were a season ago. I know it's the preseason and you can't overreact to what you see, but the Eagles offense was dreadful when Foles was under center. 

Add in he's not going to have one of his top wide outs in Alshon Jeffery, who is out with a shoulder injury, and how talented this Falcons defense is, I think the struggles continue in Week 1. Keep in mind Atlanta will be out for blood in this one after losing to the Eagles in the playoffs, a game they have to feel like they should have won. 

I also think the Falcons offense is flying way under the radar. They weren't nearly as bad as people made them out to be in 2017. They got all their top weapons back, plus used their 1st round pick on Alabama's Calvin Ridley, who looks like the real deal. As good as the Eagles defense was, I think the Falcons are able to move the ball and ultimately win this game. Take Atlanta! 

4* Patriots/Eagles 'Super Bowl 52' VEGAS INSIDER on Patriots -

I just think the value here is with the Patriots against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52. I know each of the previous Super Bowl trips for Belichick and Brady have resulted in close games and last year's OT win over the Falcons (6-points) was their largest margin of victory in a Super Bowl, but I just think the circumstances here are different. 

This will be the first time during this run that the Patriots have gone up against a backup quarterback the caliber of Nick Foles, who I don't think is very good. Sure, Foles played well at home in the NFC Championship Game against the Vikings, but I think a lot of that had to do with Minnesota coming out flat off that miracle win the week before agains the Saints. Foles only guided the Eagles to 15-points in the previous game against the Falcons and I think we see their offense struggle to score against a Patriots defense that will be 100% prepared for what the Eagles like to do with 2-weeks to prepare. Take New England! 

5* JAC/PIT Divisional Rd GAME OF THE YEAR on Jaguars +

I love the value we are getting here with Jacksonville on Sunday against the Steelers. Say what you want about the Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense, I think this team is built to have success against Pittsburgh. We saw that first hand in the regular-season, as the Jags went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 30-9. 

Jacksonville's defense made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger, intercepting him 5 times. That's what everyone talks about, but I think the key to their success in that game was their ability to keep the running game in check. Le'Veon Bell had just 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and the Steelers as a team only rushed for 70 yards on 20 attempts, which is just 3.5 yards/carry. With the talent they have in the secondary, if they can have similar success against the run, I think Pittsburgh will have a hard time moving the ball. Let's also not forget Antonio Brown is coming off an injury that kept him out the final two weeks of the regular season. 

While there's reason to be optimistic that the Jaguars defense can have similar success against the Steelers offense, I think we could see Jacksonville's offense surprise some people with how well they play. Pittsburgh's defense was one of the best in the NFL early on, but it wasn't the same after they lost Ryan Shazier, especially when it came to stopping the run. If the Jags can have success on the ground, that should open up things for Bortles to make some plays through the air. With all that said, it's not out of the question the Jaguars win this game outright. Take Jacksonville! 

4* ATL/PHI Divisional Round NO BRAINER on Falcons -

My money is on the Falcons to go into Philadelphia and take care of business. I cashed on Atlanta last week when they went on the road and beat a very good Rams team as a 6-point dog. The Falcons didn't just sneak out a win, they dominated LA. I think we could see a similar type of lopsided affair here. 

The Eagles might have the edge here in terms of rest, but I just don't think that makes up for the loss of Carson Wentz. Philadelphia continues to talk about how much the trust Nick Foles and how he's more comfortable in the offense. That doesn't change the fact that he's an average backup QB, replacing a legit MVP caliber player. We have seen just how different the offense looks since Wentz has went down and I don't think the bye week is going to help fix that. 

The other big thing with Atlanta that gets overlooked is they played one of the toughest schedules in the league and on top of that had a huge target on their back from playing in the Super Bowl the year before. I think this is the team to beat in the NFC. You also have to factor in their edge in experience. This team knows what it takes to win this time of year and have proven they can do it. Take Atlanta! 

5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers +

I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown. 

Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg. 

As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games. 

It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina! 

4* ATL/LAR 'Wild Card' NO BRAINER on Falcons +

I like the value here with the Falcons catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Rams. Atlanta didn't have the success in the regular season that most were expecting, but none of that matters now. What gets overlooked is just how hard it is for the team that lost the previous year's Super Bowl to simply get back in the postseason. This team can finally relax and I wouldn't be the least big surprised to see them win this game outright. 

Not to take anything away from the Rams and what they were able to accomplish this season, but I have some big concerns with their ability to carry it over into the playoffs. One of the biggest advantages that the Falcons have in this matchup is experience. Simply put, I don't trust Goff to perform at the level needed for the Rams to win here via a blowout.

It's also worth noting that there's something about the NFC West that has brought out some of the best in the Falcons. Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons when facing a team from this division and have won these contests by an average of 15.3 ppg. LA is also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Atlanta! 

4* NFL Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Carolina +

I like the value here with the Panthers catching over a field goal against the Falcons in Week 17. So much attention has been paid to the Eagles, Rams, Saints and Vikings in the NFC that the Panthers are somehow flying under the radar. Carolina got off to a bit of a slow start (just 4-3 in their first 7)  as Cam Newton was still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, but this team has taken off since he's returned to 100% healthy. The Panthers come in having won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8, which includes a win over these Falcons and a win over the Vikings and Packers (Rodgers return game). 

Atlanta needs to win this game to ensure a spot in the postseason, but you can't get caught up in teams in a "must-win" spot. Atlanta's offense got going in the middle portion of their schedule, but have really struggled here of late. The Falcons are only averaging 16.5 ppg over their last 4 games and now go up against one of the best defenses in the league. Carolina ranks 6th against the run (89.9 ypg) and are only giving up 208 ypg through the air on the road. 

Panthers have thrived in the role of a road dog, as they are 77-54 ATS in their last 131 games when getting points away from home. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games overall. Take Carolina! 

3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rams - 

I know the Rams aren't going to be playing a lot of their starters in this game, but I still like them to find a way to win at home against the 49ers. It's hard to believe that a team that started 0-9 is now the talk of the NFL, but with the play of Jimmy Garoppolo that's the case with San Francisco. I think it has the 49ers getting a little too much respect here in a division road game. 

I'm not buying any talk of the Rams just laying down because there starters aren't playing. The guys that are playing are going to give it all they got. I also think the fact that LA isn't playing their starters take away some of the edge here for the 49ers, who were likely looking forward to using this game as a measuring stick going into next year. I think it could have San Francisco coming out flat and it will be hard for them to cover this spread if they don't take Los Angeles seriously. 

49ers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game. San Francisco is also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams averaging 5.65 yards/play. Keep in mind that LA will still be running the same schemes offensively, even though the starters won't be playing much if at all. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NFL Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +

The public is going to back Buffalo here for the simple fact that the Bills are still in the playoff hunt and Miami is out of it. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. The last thing any team wants to do is let one of their division rivals clinch a playoff spot by beating them, especially on their home field. Now I know the Bills need some other things to happen beside winning this game to get in, but I'm confident we are going to get a big time effort from the Dolphins in this spot. Keep in mind it was a 16-24 loss at Buffalo in Week 15 that put an end to Miami's playoff hopes.

Miami's defense played well in that game against the Bills a few weeks back, limiting them to just 328 yards. They were especially good at shutting down Buffalo's high-powered rushing attack, as the Bills had just 116 yards on 30 attempts. 

The Dolphins have been a good bet at home against good teams, as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Buffalo on the other hand is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 division games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Miami! 

5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals +

I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts. 

While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals. 

Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright. 

Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati! 

3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Giants +

I like the value here with New York catching points at home against the Redskins in Week 17. The Giants come in off an embarrassing loss last week, where they were shutout by the Cardinals in a  24-0 defeat. I think we see a different NY team take the field in what will be their home finale. There's plenty of uncertainty with who is going to still be on the team next year and I think the players come together and do whatever it takes to get the win on Sunday. 

I know the Giants are going to be down to the 3rd stringers at wide receiver, but this Redskins secondary has been atrocious on the road this season. Washington is giving up an average 259 yards/game and 7.9 yards/pass attempt away from home. They also give up 4.9 yards/carry and 150 yards/game on the ground. No surprise they have allowed 28.4 ppg on the road this season. 

While the offense struggled in last week's game against Arizona, the defense played played really well. New York held the Cardinals to just 293 total yards and forced 3 turnovers. I think they can make things tuff here for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense. Note that Cousins has had trouble in his career against this Giants defense. 

Lastly, I question how motivated Washington is really going to be for this game. It was clearly important to them to get a win in their home finale last week, but there's absolutely nothing to play for. A win over the Giants isn't going to do anything and they already beat this team once this season. I could see the players being more interested in getting this game over with and focusing on their New Year's plans. Take New York! 

4* Steelers/Texans MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Texans +

I think we are getting a great price here on the Texans at home in Monday's Christmas Day showdown against the Steelers. I know Houston played is coming off an ugly 7-45 loss at Jacksonville, but that wasn't a huge surprise given how limited the Texans are offensively and how good the Jaguars are defensively. I expect a much more motivated Houston team to take the field at home in a prime time game. 

The biggest thing here isn't this is a horrible spot for the Steelers, who are coming off about as painful a loss as you can have in their 24-27 defeat at home to the Patriots, which likely cost them the No. 1 seed in the AFC. On top of that, they lost star wide out Antonio Brown to a calf injury. While they played well without him against New England, that's a massive loss. Brown was playing at an MVP level this season. At the same time, this Pittsburgh offense has a history of underperforming on the road (almost a TD less per game on the road compared to at home this season) and I think it could be in for a long day without Brown in this one. 

Steelers are also just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, while the Texans are a solid 22-10 ATS in their last 32 when coming off back-to-back games where they scored 17 or fewer points. Take Houston! 

3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Giants +

I just think there's too much value here with New York in this one. I know it's been a miserable season for the Giants, but I liked how they came out and competed last week against the Eagles. Most importantly, the offense finally showed us something, scoring 29 points with over 500 yards of total offense against a very good Eagles defense. Eli Manning had his best game of the season by far, throwing for 434 yards and 3 scores.

Arizona simply has no business laying more than a field goal in this matchup. While the Cardinals will get back Drew Stanton at quarterback, it's just a minor upgrade over Blaine Gabbert in my opinion. Stanton takes over an offense that hasn't scored a TD in 10 quarters and I wouldn't be shocked if they failed to score one here against a Giants team that I think has some new life now that they have parted ways with McAdoo.

We also have a strong system in play backing the Giants. Road underdogs who are a bad team that's being outscored by 4+ points/game on the season are 227-149 (60%) ATS after a loss by 6-points or less since 1983. Take New York! 

4* NFL Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Jags -

I like the value here with the Jaguars laying a short number on the road against the 49ers. Jacksonville has been one of the big surprises of the season, as they have already locked up their first playoff appearance in 10 years. They come into this game on an absolute roll, as they have won 3 straight  and 7 of their last 8 overall. 

Early in the year this team was winning games just with their defense, but that's no longer the case. Blake Bortles has been playing at an MVP level over the last few weeks and the Jaguars have scored 30, 30 and 45 points over their last 3 games. 

I think a big reason we are getting value here with the Jaguars is the 49ers come in having won 3 straight and it's all come after Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over the starting quarterback job. Garoppolo has put up some great numbers in his 3 starts, but it's come against the Bears, Texans and Titans. 

The problem here with Garoppolo and the 49ers is that their offense has really relied on his ability to throw the ball and attacking this Jaguars defense through the air is not a recipe for success. Jacksonville's defense is the real deal and they have completely shutdown opposing passing attacks, as they lead the NFL, allowing just 168.9 ypg, which is 30 yards better than the next best team. I just don't think San Francisco will be able to score enough to keep this within the number. Take Jacksonville -4! 

4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bengals +

The last two games for Cincinnati have been a complete embarrassment to the players and franchise. They lost at home to the Bears 7-33 and then followed that up with a 7-34 loss at Minnesota. Couple of things to note about those two performances. The first is the game against Chicago was a major letdown spot after their crushing loss to the Steelers at home the week before, which all but eliminated them from playoff contention. Then last week prior to their game against the Vikings it was reported that head coach Marvin Lewis was going to resign and I don't think it sat well with players that they had to learn of the news via the media. 

With all that behind them, I think we are going to see a much better effort from Cincinnati in what will be the final home game for Lewis. The players might not like him leaving, but he's done a lot to get this franchise back on the map and I think they will want his final home game to be one to remember. 

Not only are we seeing Cincinnati undervalued because of their recent showings, but the books have certainly inflated this line on the Lions, as the public will look to back Detroit, given they are the only team with something to play for. Detroit might still be in the playoff hunt, but I'm just not sold on this team being a threat to make the playoffs in the NFC and it would be typical Lions fashion for them to lay an egg here on the road. 

Keep in mind Detroit is a mere 9-25 ATS in their last 34 road games as a favorite of 7 points or less and 9-27 ATS in their last 36 road games when they come in having won 2 or more straight games. Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 30+ points and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Cincinnati! 

3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Falcons +

I like the value here with the Falcons catching almost a touchdown against division rival New Orleans on Sunday. These two teams just played in Atlanta in Week 14, which the Falcons prevailed 20-17 despite Matt Ryan having one of his worst games with just 221 yards and 3 interceptions. I would expect a much better showing here from Ryan and wouldn't be shocked if Atlanta pulled off the upset.

Keep in mind that Atlanta was a 3-point favorite at home against the Saints, which based off that line means New Orleans should be a similar 3-point home favorite in this one. I think that just shows how overvalued the Saints are right now. It's also worth noting that in the last 11 meetings in the series, only once has New Orleans managed to beat the Falcons by more than 6 points and that was a mere 10-point win back in 2015. When these two teams square off, more times than not it's a closely contested game that comes down to a play or two in the 4th quarter. 

Falcons did play on MNF last week, which for some teams is a negative, but they are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when playing on Sunday after playing their previous game on a Monday. Falcons are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Atlanta! 

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jets +

I think we are getting excellent value here with the Jets catching a touchdown at home against the Chargers on Sunday. The public loves to focus all their attention on the teams that are still in the playoff mix and as a result I think we are seeing a drastically inflated line on Los Angeles here. While the Chargers are mathematically still alive, their playoff hopes all but came to an end last week in their loss to the Chiefs, who will likely wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Dolphins. 

At the same time, I don't think it's going to be as easy as people think for LA to bounce back off that crushing loss to Kansas City, especially on the road. Keep in mind in mind this is their second straight on the road and a dreaded spot for West Coast teams playing on the East Coast in an early game. 

I know the Jets are down to backup QB Bryce Petty, but this is a New York team that has shown a tremendous amount of fight this season and have been a much more competent team at home, where they are 4-3, compared to 1-6 on the road. Not only do I think the Jets can keep this close enough to cover, but I actually give them a decent shot at winning this game outright. 

Jets are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games dating back to last season and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Chargers on the other hand are a mere 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are now just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of December. Take New York! 

5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +

I absolutely love the value here with Tennessee catching a touchdown at home against the Rams. The perception on LA couldn't be much higher right now, as they just laid an absolute beating on the road against Seattle last Sunday, crushing their division rivals 42-7. That win put the Rams 2-games up on the Seahawks for the NFC West title and all they need to do is win one of their final two games (host 49ers in Week 17) or have have Seattle lose one of their final two (play at Dallas this week). Either way, this is not a must-win game for the Rams and with them coming off that huge win, I think they are primed for a letdown here in what will be their second straight road game. 

I know the Titans come in having lost back-to-back games, but those both game on the road and they were a couple breaks away from winning both of those games. What you have to keep in mind with Tennessee is they are a different team at home. The Titans are 5-1 at Nissan Stadium compared to just 3-5 on the road. It's been night and day offensive for Tennessee offensively, as they are averaging 26 ppg at home compared to a mere 17.5 ppg on the road. This is also a must-win game for the Titans, who need to win to just have a shot at making the playoffs. 

The big key here is I think the Titans will be able to slow down this Rams offensive attack. While LA puts up big numbers both on the ground and through the air, their offense is at its best when they can establish the run. That won't be easy against Tennessee. The Titans feature one of the leagues top run defenses and are giving up just 74 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry on the ground at home. I think all this adds up to a closely contested battle and one that I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won outright. Take Tennessee! 

4* Colts/Ravens NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Ravens - 

You won't see me laying this many points often in the NFL, especially early on in the season. I think you have to handicap these big spreads a little differently this late in the season, as you have some teams like Baltimore with everything to play for and other teams like the Colts who have little to play for. You can't just blindly go against teams who are out of the playoffs, as some teams do keep fighting to the end. Indianapolis isn't one of those teams in my opinion. 

This has been a lost season from the start for the Colts, who have had to play the entire year without star quarterback Andrew Luck. They come in having lost 5 straight and I just get the feeling that this team is ready for the season to be over. 

It's also worth noting that the Ravens are not a team to overlook an opponent and the spot sets up well for them to not only win but win big. Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the NFL and are allowing just 16.5 ppg at home this season. They should have no problem shutting down this Colts offense, which has now gone 5 straight games where they have scored 17 or fewer points. The other big key here is that while the Ravens are limited offensively, this is a defense they should be able to exploit, as Indy is giving up 29.9 ppg and 6.1 yards/play on the road this season. Take Baltimore!

4* Chargers/Chiefs NFL ATS NO BRAINER on Chiefs +

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Kansas City as an underdog at home to the Chargers. The stakes couldn't be much higher for this one. The winner takes complete control of the AFC West, while the loser would be sitting at 7-7 and needing to likely win out just to have a chance at making the playoffs as a Wild Card. This is going to feel like a playoff game for both teams and I simply don't think the Chiefs home field edge is getting enough respect here. This is one of the toughest places to play in general and Arrowhead can be electric in these types of games. 

I also think it's huge that Kansas City is coming into this game off not just a win but an impressive win at home against the Raiders in what was also a huge game for this team. The Chiefs dominated their rivals from Oakland, taking a 26-0 lead into the 4th quarter. It could have been a lot worse, as KC missed some golden opportunities in the red zone and had to settle for field goals. They scored on 5 straight possessions to start the game if you ignore the drive right before the half where there was only a minute left and they ran out the clock. Keep in mind that was an equally big game for Oakland, as both teams were sitting at 6-6. 

I think that's the kind of performance that could propel them back to the form that had them start out 5-0. You also can't ignore the success that KC has had against the Chargers team. They beat them by 14 in LA earlier this season and have won 7 straight overall. It's also worth noting the Chiefs haven't lost a home division game since Week 2 of the 2015 seasons. Take Kansas City! 

4* Patriots/Dolphins MNF ATS NO BRAINER on Dolphins +

This is simply too many points to pass up with on the Dolphins at home against a division rival, even when that opponent is the Patriots. No surprise here that New England is being way overvalued by the books in this one. The Patriots come in having won 8 straight and have covered the spread in each of their last 6. Just two weeks ago they beat these same Dolphins 35-17 as a massive 16.5-point home favorite. 

It all adds up to Miami getting way too points given the circumstances. The Dolphins will have Jay Cutler at quarterback, who missed the previous game. As for the Patriots, they have all kinds of guys banged up right now and arguably their biggest weapon in tight end Rob Gronkowski is suspended. The Dolphins are going to play their hearts out here and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Note that Brady and the Pats have lost 3 of their last 4 trips to Hard Rock Stadium. Take Miami! 

5* NFL Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Panthers

I love the value here with Carolina getting points at home. The Panthers are one of the better teams in the league and simply shouldn't be a dog on their home field. Minnesota is simply overvalued right now, as the Vikings have won 8 straight and covered each of their last 7. 

The big key here is that this is a really tough spot for Minnesota, who will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It doesn't come up a ton in the NFL, but teams tend to really struggle in that 3rd straight game away from home. I think that will be the case here for the Vikings, who are off two tough games on the road against the Lions and Falcons. 

Panthers come in off a loss at New Orleans, but had won and covered 4 straight prior to that. They have bounced back nicely, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Carolina! 

4* Saints/Falcons TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Falcons +

I really like the value here with Atlanta as a home dog against the Saints on Thursday Night Football. It does look like the books are adjusting to the bad line they put out and I would gladly back the Falcons at anything less than a field goal. 

We are simply seeing a big overreaction here to last week, where Atlanta failed in a similar spot at home as a 3-point favorite against the Vikings. The Falcons lost 9-14 to Minnesota, despite the offense playing about as poorly as they have all season. Atlanta had to settle for 3 field goals and were a miserable 1-10 of 3rd down. I expect a big bounce back effort here from that Falcons offense. I know the Saints' defense has been playing much better, but we often see the defense for the road team struggle in these Thursday games, as they just don't have the time to prepare on the short rest.

While a lot of teams hate these Thursday night games, the Falcons have played some of their best football in these matchups, as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on Thursday. The Falcons are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs the NFC and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after scoring less than 15 points. Take Atlanta! 

5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders - 

I absolutely love this spot for Oakland, as I think the Giants are a massive fade right now. New York showed some life with a surprising win over Kansas City at home and while they didn't cover in their last game against the Redskins, they were in a great position to late. The thing is the Chiefs couldn't be playing much worse right now and Washington is decimated with injuries, which really showed up in their game on Thursday against the Cowboys. 

New York played about as well as they could in those two games and easily could have lost both. I just don't see the same effort going forward, especially after the team announced they were benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith. That's a pretty clear picture to the players and coaching staff that the goal from here on out isn't to win games. It's not like they are playing Smith to see if they have something for next year. They are downgrading at the most important position on the field on purpose. 

Oakland hasn't been playing up to expectations this year, but this is still a decent team that when they are right can light up the scoreboard. They also desperately need to win this game to keep any hope alive of making the playoffs. I only see one team showing up to play on Sunday and any time that happens, that's a recipe for a blowout. Take Oakland! 

3* Texans/Ravens MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texans +

I like the value here with Houston catching over a touchdown against the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The Texans were finally able to get something positive going with Tom Savage at quarterback, as they rallied late to knock off the Cardinals 31-21 last week to snap a 3-game skid. I look for Houston to carry over that momentum here against a Ravens team that I think is getting way too much respect. 

Baltimore is coming off a 23-0 shutout win on the road over the Packers. Their second shutout in their last 3 games and third of the season. No denying this is a great defensive team, but I'm willing to bet Houston is able to put points on the board. The big reason the Ravens shouldn't be laying more than a touchdown against a quality team like the Texans is they are far from a great offensive team. They can't run the football and aren't great at attacking teams deep, which makes them easy to defend. Houston's defense is missing some big names, but still a ton of talent on that side and I think they not only help the Texans keep this close enough to cover but potentially even win the game outright. Take Houston! 

3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Rams -

New Orleans has won 8 straight and are 7-1 ATS during this 8-game winning streak. Needless to say the Saints have becoming a team the public loves to back and I think the books have finally started to adjust. I see big time value here with the Rams laying less than a field goal at home. Los Angeles struggled on the road at Minnesota last week, but so did the Saints when they played the Vikings on the road earlier this season, losing 19-29. 

This is definitely a much improved Saints team from the past few years, but I'm still not quite convinced they are as good as everyone thinks. They should have lost at home last week to the Redskins, as Washington gave the game away in the final minutes. A lot of the wins for New Orleans have come against bad teams. LA is their biggest test since they opened the season with losses to the Vikings and Patriots. I just think the Rams balanced offense and defense will be too much to overcome on the road. Take LA! 

4* NFL Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on 49ers +

I like the value here with San Francisco catching a touchdown at home against division rival Seattle on Sunday. The 49ers may be just 1-9, but could easily have a few more wins, as they had a 5-game stretch earlier this season where they lost all 5 games by 3-points or less. This team was finally able to close out a game last time out, defeating the Giants 31-21 for their first win of the season. That was a huge confidence boost going into their bye week and I think they come out and play one of their best games against the Seahawks. 

As for Seattle, they have been decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball and I just don't think they deserve to be laying this many points on the road against any team right now outside of maybe the Browns. The Seahawks are down two of their elite players from their secondary with both Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor on IR. They also have lost started defensive end Cliff Avril for the year and might not have linebacker Bobby Wagner (questionable). Offensively they don't have a lot of great options at running back with most of their top guys going down and they could be without starting left tackle Duane Brown. 

Seattle is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. 49ers have saved their best football for their division opponents and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs the NFC West. Take San Francisco! 

4* NFL Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Tampa Bay +

I like the value here with Tampa Bay catching double-digits against division rival Atlanta. The Bucs finally have some confidence to work with, as they have won two straight behind veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is filling in for the injured Jameis Winston. Given Winston's poor decision making that led to costly turnovers, I don't think it's as big a drop off as people think with Fitzpatrick starting. 

As for Atlanta, they come in off a huge 34-31 road win over the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, which followed that impressive 27-7 win over Dallas the week before. With home games against two of the NFC's best in Minnesota and New Orleans on deck, this has the making of a flat spot for the Falcons. I look for Atlanta to struggle to pull away here and if they aren't careful, they might lose this game outright. Take Tampa Bay! 

4* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Colts +

I like the value here with the Colts catching points at home against division rival Tennessee. Indianapolis has gotten better with each week, especially on the offensive side of the ball, where Jacoby Brissett finally seems comfortable with the system the Colts run. Last time out they should have beat the Steelers at home, but let the game get away late and lost 17-20. They also had a 23-24 loss at the Bengals a few week back. Had those two gone their way, they would be riding a 3-game winning streak right now. 

Tennessee is sitting at 6-4, but I'm just not sold on this team being a legit threat in the AFC. They had a chance to prove themselves in their last game and instead got embarrassed in a 17-40 loss at Pittsburgh. After that loss they are now just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS away from home this season. Overall the Titans are just 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games and are a mere 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Indianapolis! 

3* NFL Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami +

This is simply too many points for even the Patriots to be laying against a division rival. I know the Dolphins have had some ugly losses this season, but I like their chances of keeping this one closer than expected. Jay Cutler isn't expected to play, but I don't see that as a huge loss and you could even argue the team has a better chance with backup Matt Moore, who looked good in relief last week. 

I also think the Dolphins are catching the Patriots at the right time, as New England is coming off a two game road trip where they had to play both in high altitude. The first in Denver against the Broncos and then last week against the Raiders in Mexico City. On top of the Patriots potentially coming out a little flat here, they are also dealing with a number of injuries. They are down two starters on the offensive line with both center David Andrews and right tackle Marcus Cannon ruled out. They also might not have safety Patrick Chung and defensive tackle Malcom Brown. Take Miami! 

5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +

This is the time to go against the Eagles. Philadelphia is flying high after their 37-9 blowout win over rival Dallas on Sunday Night Football and now return home for a game against the 3-7 Bears before going back on the road for another huge game against the Seahawks. I think the Eagles are going to have a really tough time giving the Bears the respect they deserve and that could prove costly, as this is much better Chicago team than their record would suggest. 

The Bears haven't lost a game by more than 8-points since September back before Trubisky took over at quarterback. Chicago is able to keep game close because of their ability to run the football and a defense that is much better than anyone realizes. I look for the Bears to grind out every possession to eat up the clock and limit the number of possessions for the Eagles offense, while the defense does a good job of getting off the field on 3rd down. 

Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in November and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Take Chicago! 

4* NFL Giants/Redskins VEGAS INSIDER on Giants +

I think we are getting some great value here with the Giants catching over a touchdown against Washington in this NFC East showdown on Thanksgiving night. New York finally had that kind of response we have been waiting to see, as they looked like a different team in last week's 12-9 upset win as a huge dog at home against the Chiefs. I see no reason why the Giants won't bring that same intensity here on the road against a division rival. 

As for Washington, they come in off a devastating loss at New Orleans, where they managed to blow a 31-16 lead in the final 5 minutes and ended up losing 31-34 in overtime. That loss not only feels like the final straw in the Redskins playoff hopes, but once again this team is dealing with all kinds of injuries.

Most notably on the offensive line, where Washington will have guys that have barely been on their team for more than month starting at left guard and center. Not to mention left tackle Trent Williams is playing on one leg. They also have numerous injuries along the defensive front 7 and even a horrible Giants offense should be able to muster together some scoring drives. 

The key here is that even with the Redskins in a horrible spot and likely without several key players, no one wants anything to do with this Giants team right now and as a result we have an inflated line on Washington in a prime time game. Redskins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a division opponent. Take New York! 

5* NFC North (Thanksgiving) GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +

I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. Minnesota had been flying under the radar up until last week's convincing 24-7 win over the Rams. Now I feel like the Vikings are overvalued here as a division road favorite against a good but not great Detroit team that knows a thing or to about playing on Thanksgiving.

Keep in mind these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year and the Lions were a 1.5-point favorite and won 16-13. On top of that, Minnesota was only a 3-point favorite at home earlier this season, which they lost 7-14. Based on that spread, this line should be closer to a pick'em and you could argue that Detroit should be favored. 

As good as Case Keenum has been playing, the Lions still have the edge in this one at quarterback with Matthew Stafford. The other key thing here is that while the Vikings have a great defense, it's going to be hard for them to play up to their true potential after laying it all on the line against the Rams and having just 3 days to prepare. Note that Detroit is averaging 27.6 ppg and just over 350 ypg at home this season. At the same time the Vikings are giving up 22.2 ppg on the road, well above their season average of 17.2 ppg. 

Lions have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. Minnesota is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Detroit! 

4* Falcons/Seahawks MNF ATS NO BRAINER on Seattle -

I think we are getting some great value here with the Seahawks as a slim home favorite against the Falcons. Atlanta comes in off a 27-7 blowout win at home over the Cowboys and I think a lot of people see that performance and think this team is back to where they were a season ago. I'm not one of them. I'm not saying they won't be a good team the rest of the way, but it's asking a lot for a team to win in Seattle in a big game. 

The Seahawks knocked off Arizona 22-16 on Thursday Night Football last week, but it was't that close, as Arizona scared a garbage touchdown with 20 seconds left. Seattle did lose star cornerback Richard Sherman, which is a big blow, but I think this team has enough talent at the position to make due. They also are expected to get back star safety Earl Thomas, who forms the best safety due in the league with Cam Chancellor. 

While Atlanta held Dallas to 7-points, that was a direct result of the Cowboys playing their first game without Ezekiel Elliott, who is their most important offensive weapon. Prior to that the Falcons had given up 20 or in 7 straight and this Seahawks offense comes in averaging 28.2 ppg at home. Take Seattle! 

3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Raiders +

I think we are getting some good value here with Oakland catching a touchdown in this neutral side game against the Patriots that will be played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The Raiders are coming off of their bye week and this feels like a must-win for them sitting at 4-5. I expect a big time effort here from Oakland and like their chances of keeping this within the number. 

New England is coming off a 41-16 blowout win over the Broncos in primetime and have now won 5 straight. The way they dismantled Denver on the road has everyone back on the Patriots bandwagon as the best team in the NFL. They just might be, but this is a big number to be laying away from home against a good team and I think we could see Oakland cause some major problems for a Patriots defense that I think is still a bottom-tier unit. 

Raiders have been a good bet with an extra week to prepare, as they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a bye. We also have a great system in play backing the dog, as Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 27-9 (75%) ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 over the last 10 seasons. Take Oakland! 

4* NFL Public ATS SHOCKER on Bears +

Chicago laid an egg last week at home against the Packers in a game a lot of people expected the Bears to win given how bad Green Bay had played without Aaron Rodgers. Now no one wants anything to do with Chicago at home against the Lions, but I think we are getting some value here with the home division dog. I just think this team is better suited to play as a dog than a favorite and the results back it up, as they are a perfect 4-0 at home as a dog this year with outright wins over both the Steelers and Panthers. 

Detroit comes in having won 2 straight. The most recent being a 38-24 win over the Browns at home, but I just haven't been all that impressed with this team. Keep in mind that 14-point win over Cleveland is very misleading, as the Browns actually had a 413-345 edge in total yards and 26-16 advantage in first downs. Not to mention they had a 27-17 lead with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. 

Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning home record. Detroit on the other hand is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Chicago! 

4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Giants +

After losing 21-31 to the 49ers and handing San Francisco their first win of the season the perception couldn't be any worse for the Giants, who have now lost 3 straight by double-digits. Most just assume this team has thrown in the towel and aren't going to show up against the Chiefs. At the same time, everyone is going to be on KC coming off a bye. I just feel it's resulted in a drastically inflated line here and I'll take my chances with the Giants doing enough to keep this within the number. 

One of the big reasons that I think New York can keep this closer than expected is the Chiefs simply aren't a good defensive team, especially on the road where they are giving up 26 ppg and 395 ypg. The loss of Eric Berry is a big reason why they aren't playing at the same level as years past, as well as their inability to pressure on the quarterback on a consistent basis. I look for Eli Manning to have one of his better games here and for the offense to keep them i the game. 

Giants are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half in two straight games and that plays right into a great system, as underdogs who have allowed 17 or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 65-31 (68%) against when facing a team that's coming off a loss by 10 or more. Take New York! 

4* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Redskins +

I like the value here with Washington catching over a touchdown against the Saints. New Orleans comes in having won 7 straight and are now 7-2 after their 0-2 start. The most recent being an absolute beating of the Bills on the road, which saw them win by a final of 47-10. I think the public is finally on board with this team as a legit contender and the books are on top of it, inflating this line to take advantage of all the action that will come in on New Orleans. 

Keep in mind the Saints were a 7.5-point home favorite against the Bears just a few weeks back and while the Redskins aren't a top tier team, they are in a lot better shape than Chicago. They held their own last week in a 30-38 loss to a very good Vikings team and the week before went on the road and won in Seattle, which doesn't happen often this time of year. I'm not saying they win this game, but I think the Saints might come in a little compliant here and potentially looking ahead to brutal 3-game stretch that has them going at LA, hosting the Panthers and then going to Atlanta. 

I believe Washington has enough here defensively to keep the Saints from going off and more than enough fire-power to keep it close. The Redskins are also a solid 9-4 ATS in their last 13 off a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Washington!

4* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Texans 

The perception has quickly changed on Houston. Just a few weeks ago the Texans were a legit playoff contender with rookie Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Then came his season-ending injury and back to Tom Savage under center. The offense went from scoring 33 or more points in 5 straight games under Watson's control to totaling just two over the last two behind Savage. Last week they got rolled at LA 33-7 by the Rams and now no wants anything to do with this team. 

Yes, the offense is limited with Savage, but I just don't think this team is going to give on their season. I look for a big time effort here at home against the Cardinals and unlike the Rams, who are one of the best teams in the NFL, Arizona is in just as bad a shape. The Cardinals lost their best player in RB David Johnson early and then came a season-ending injury to starting QB Carson Palmer. Now backup Drew Stanton is out and it's third stringer Blaine Gabbert who will start. I believe there's more than enough talent here with Houston's defense to keep Arizona's offense in check and I'll take my chances on the offense providing just enough for the win. Take Houston! 

5* NFC ATS GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -

I really like the value here with Minnesota laying less than a field goal at home against the Rams. Los Angeles is the talk of the NFL right now and have absolutely just dominated in their last 3 games, beating the Cardinals 33-0, Giants 51-17 and the Texans 33-7. One thing you will note with all 3 of those game is they came against teams that have been absolutely decimated with injuries, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Hard for this team to not have a big head right now and that's the last thing you want going up against this Vikings team. 

While the Rams are getting all kinds of love, Minnesota is a team that has played great to start the year and yet no one is talking about them. I think we get a big time effort here from the Vikings in this one, who are much better offensively than they get credit for and certainly have the defensive playmakers to slow down this high-scoring Rams offense. 

Vikings are also historically a great bet at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, as they are 22-8 ATS at home since he came to Minnesota. He's also got his team to play well against great offensive teams, going 14-4 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards/game. Take Minnesota! 

4* Titans/Steelers TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Titans +

I like the value here with the Titans catching a touchdown on Thursday Night Football against the Steelers. Tennessee is a team that is sitting at 6-3 on the season, but are getting zero respect. No one is talking about this team, despite the fact that they come in having won 4 straight. 

Pittsburgh has also won 4 straight, but it hasn't been pretty the last two games. They were lucky to leave Detroit with a 20-15 win and even more fortunate last week to walk away from Indy with a 20-17 victory, as they trailed 3-17. I know the Titans had to score late to get a 24-20 win at home against the Bengals, but they should have never let it get to that point, as they had a 108 edge in total yards and 27 first downs to Cincinnati's 15. I just feel Pittsburgh is going through the motions right now and that's a recipe for disaster in these Thursday games. 

It's also worth noting that the Titans come in off 2 straight home wins and that put them in a very profitable spot, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 2 straight home wins. Pittsburgh is also a team that has history of not covering this time of year, as they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in November. Take Tennessee! 

5* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Broncos +

I like the value here with Denver catching over a touchdown at home against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. We were going to get a big time effort here from Denver regardless of where or when the game was being played, as they want to snap a 4-game skid, but they should be even more locked in with this being a prime time home game against Brady and the Patriots. 

There's not many negatives with Brady's remarkable career, but he's struggled to find a way to guide his team to a win at Denver. In fact, Brady is just 3-7 in his last 10 trips to Mile High Stadium. As well as the Patriots have been playing offensively, I think Von Miller and this Denver defense can hold them in check enough to not only cover the number, but potentially win the game outright. 

The biggest concern here for most people when it comes to taking Denver is whether they can generate enough offense. I think they can, as this Patriots defense is far from elite. New England is 25th against the run (121.5 ypg) and dead last against the pass (295.5 ypg). Take Denver! 

4* NFL Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Falcons -

I like the value here with Atlanta laying only a field goal at home against the Cowboys, who won't have star running back Ezekiel Elliott, as he finally has to start serving his suspension. I just don't think the line has been adjusted enough here to make up for his absence. The perception is that Dallas can just plug anyone in at running back and put up big yards on the ground, but we saw in 2015 when they let DeMarco Murray leave the production wasn't the same and didn't pick back up until Zeke arrived. 

I think a drop off in the running game is going to have a negative impact not only on the offense, which will face a lot more 3rd and long situations, but also the defense. One of the reasons Dallas defense has played so well is the offense could eat up the clock and keep them fresh. That's bad news for the Cowboys defense, as they go up against an Atlanta offense that isn't as bad as everyone is saying and due for a breakout performance. 

Dallas comes in having covered 3 straight, but are just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games when they come in having covered 3 out of their last 4 games. Take Atlanta! 

3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Texans +

I like the value here with the Texans catching double-digits against the Rams. LA is the talk of the NFL right now after their 6-2 start and have quickly become a big public team. That combined with no one wanting to back Houston with Tom Savage at quarterback, has this line inflated. It's a lot harder to win by 10+ in the NFL than people think. 

A big reason I like the points here with the Texans is I believe their defense can make life difficult for the Rams offense. Two things LA has done very well early on is pick up a ton of yards after the catch and convert on 3rd down. Houston is near the top of the league in both of those categories defensively. We saw Seattle's stop unit hold the Rams to just 10 points and I think we could see the Texans keep them at least under 20 and I'll take my chances that Savage and the offense can do enough to keep it within the number. 

It's also worth noting that playing at home hasn't exactly been an advantage for the Rams, especially when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. LA is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. Take Houston! 

3* NFL UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Bills +

The public is going to be all over the Saints as a short road favorite, but I like the value here with the Bills catching a field goal at home, where they are a perfect 4-0 on the season. Buffalo laid an egg in their last game, losing badly on the road to the Jets on Thursday Night Football. That loss is magnified because it was a prime time game. The road team is at such a huge disadvantage in those Thursday games that I don't think that we should judge this team on that performance. Keep in mind they had gone 4-1 in their previous 5 games. 

Not to take anything away from the Saints and their 6-game winning streak, but they haven't exactly played a lot of great teams, especially on offense, during this stretch. I think the offense struggles here on the road, as they should have a hard time running against a stout Bill's front seven and I think we see that defense everyone is praising have some troubles against the strong rushing attack and mobility of quarterback Tyrod Taylor. 

Saints are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when they come into a game having covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. We also find a strong system going against New Orleans, as favorites that are scoring 27+ ppg are just 7-27 ATS (21%) against the spread after allowing 14 or less points in each of their last 2 games over the last 10 years. Take Buffalo! 

4* NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Vikings -

I like the value here with Minnesota laying a short number against the Redskins on Sunday. Washington is coming off an impressive 17-14 win at Seattle, but were very fortunate to get the victory, as they needed a last second touchdown for the win and benefited from the Seahawks missing 3 field goals. I believe it has the Redskins getting a little too much respect here, even as a short home dog, as they are just decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. 

At the same time, this Vikings team is one of the best in the NFL and come in having won 4 straight and are also off a bye, which is a huge advantage this late in the season. Washington has failed to score 20 points in each of their last 2 games and I don't see them breaking that streak here against one of the best defenses in the NFL, who has had two weeks to game plan for them. 

Vikings have covered 3 straight and that's a good thing, as they are an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when they have covered 2 or more games in a row. Washington is just 3-12-3 ATS in their last 18 after totaling less than 250 total yards in their previous game and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Minnesota! 

3* Seahawks/Cardinals TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals +

I like the value here with Arizona catching almost a touchdown at home against the Seahawks, as I feel the Cardinals have a great shot of winning this game outright. We can certainly expect a big time effort here from the home team, as this feels like a must-win game given how strong the NFC is as a whole and they are looking up at both Seattle and Los Angeles in their own division.

The Seahawks are a big time public team and the oddsmakers have certainly inflated this line with it being a prime time game. While Seattle is 4-1 in their last 5, they just aren't playing all that great of football. The running game has been nonexistent and the offensive line is just as bad when it comes to pass protection. I think this Arizona defense will make life miserable for Russell Wilson and do enough here offensively to secure the cover. 

Let's also not overlook the fact that these home teams have a HUGE advantage in these Thursday games, which only adds more value here with this line. Seattle scored just 14 points in their ugly home loss to the Redskins on Sunday and are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 after failing to score at least 15 points. Seahawks are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Arizona!

4* Raiders/Dolphins SNF BEST BET on Dolphins +

I like the value here with Miami catching a field goal at home against the Raiders on Sunday Night Football. The public is going to be all over Oakland, even with the Raiders off an ugly 14-34 loss at Buffalo last week, as they won't be able to get over the 0-40 loss the Dolphins suffered in their last contest, as it was a prime time game. 

That loss for Miami came with backup QB Matt Moore under center and it didn't help matters the Dolphins were playing on the road in a short week, as the home teams have such a huge advantage in those Thursday Night games. I expect a big bounce back effort here from Miami at home and keep in mind they now have the scheduling advantage with 3 extra days to prepare and rest up for this contest. 

I also don't think the Raiders are as good as people think. They had that one big game against KC at home a coupe weeks ago, but that was one of those Thursday night home games where they had a big edge and they were lucky to win. Oakland is just 1-3 on the road this season and are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games overall. Take Miami! 

3* NFL ATS HEAVY HITTER  on Cowboys -

I like the value with Dallas at basically a pick'em at home against the Chiefs on Sunday, especially with the recent news that Ezekiel Elliot will be playing. Kansas City has become one of the public's favorite teams to back and they come in off a convincing win over the Broncos in a prime time game on Monday Night Football. 

While the Chiefs defense was able to slow down Denver's anemic offense, they have been struggling on that side of the ball. One area that really concerns me with KC and their defense is their ability to stop the Cowboys rushing attack. The Chiefs are 28th in the league against the run, giving up 131.1 ypg. Note they aren't any better against the pass, ranking 29th, allowing 261.1 ypg. I look for Dallas to take full advantage of the Chiefs weakness against the run and dominate the time of possession here and secure the win. 

Cowboys are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when they come into a contest of 2 straight road wins. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 30 or more points and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 off a game where they covered the spread! Take Dallas! 

3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Redskins +

I know Washington is dealing with some injuries and are off an ugly 19-33 loss at home to the Cowboys, but I think it's created some great value and I'll take my chances with the Redskins at this pice. That game against Dallas was also a lot closer than the final score would indicate. Washington was within a touchdown late in the 4th quarter before Dallas added a garbage TD with less than 30 seconds to play. 

The Seahawks have won 4 straight, but needed everything they had to escape with a 41-38 win at home over the Texans last week. They also had a very fortunate 16-10 win over the Rams during this stretch. LA fumbled a TD out of the end zone and had 5 turnovers on the game. I still have concerns with the offensive line and the defense will be without one of their most important pieces in safety Earl Thomas. Keep in mind they weren't the same on that side of the ball last year when he went on IR. I think Cousins and the Redskins offense can do enough here to keep this within the number. Take Washington! 

4* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Bengals +

I think we are getting some great value here with Cincinnati on Sunday. The Bengals are coming off a sluggish game at home against the Colts, where they squeaked out a 24-23 win. A lot of peopler were on Cincinnati as an 11-point favorite and the week before they lost by 15 as a 4-point dog at Pittsburgh. That combined with the Jaguars coming off a win and their bye week has this line a little too inflated in my opinion. 

Jaguars have impressed with their 4-3 start, but have also been very inconsistent, as they have not won back-to-back all season. A big reason I think the Bengals can keep this close enough to cover and potentially win outright is their defense. Cincinnati is 5th in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 295 ypg and are giving up only 19.3 ppg. Jacksonville's strong start is more to do with their defense than their offense and they have yet to win a game this season when they have failed to score more than 20 points. 

Bengals are a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, while the Jaguars are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after holding their previous opponent to 14 or less points. Take Cincinnati! 

3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +

I like the value here with Tampa Bay catching a touchdown against division rival New Orleans. It's been a miserable start for the Bucs, who had such high expectations coming into the season, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Tampa just yet and expect one of their better efforts of the season in this one.

We are also getting a big number here as the books have no choice but to inflate this number on the Saints with them coming in having won and covered in 5 straight games. It's been a good situation to fade New Orleans in the past, as they are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Bucs are also a solid 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 5 or 6 out of their last 7. 

We also find a great system in play backing the Bucs, as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 121-73 (62%) against the spread in the month of November dating back to 1983. Take Tampa Bay! 

4* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans -

I like the value here with Tennessee laying a short number at home against the Ravens. Last time Baltimore took the field they laid a 40-0 beating on the Dolphins, but Miami's offense was without starting their starting QB and already one of the worst offensive units in the league. That was also a home game on Thursday, where the home team has a massive advantage on short rest.

Prior to that the Ravens were just 1-4 in their previous 5 games with the only win coming against the Raiders without Carr. The losses during this stretch weren't good and I just don't see them being able to hang with the Titans, who return from their bye playing with a ton of confidence after winning each of their last two. 

Baltimore is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home win by 21+ points and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Titans have also had a great home field edge of late, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Tennessee! 

4* Bills/Jets TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Jets +

I'll take the points here with New York at home, as I think the Jets win this game outright. NY has been playing better than anyone anticipated and as a result have been a covering machine here of late. Since getting blown out on the road against the Raiders in Week 2, the Jets are 3-3 SU and 5-0-1 ATS. They could just as easily be riding a 6-game winning streak, as all 3 losses came by 7 points or less. 

This game has a little extra meaning for the Jets, who lost at Buffalo 12-21 back in Week 1. While the Bills were able to pull away late for the cover as a 7-point favorite, that game was much closer than the final score and could have easily went the other way. With Buffalo faced with the tough task of playing on the road with a short week of prep. The Bills are also in a bit of a letdown spot here after that big home win over the Raiders and I'm still not convinced they are as good as their 5-2 record. Neither does Vegas, as Buffalo is still at 40 to 1 to win it all (same odds as Packers, Lions, Titans, Jaguars). 

Bills have ran over their last 2 opponents on the ground, but are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after rushing for 150+ yards in each of their last 2 games. They Jets are a solid 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 homes games. Take New York! 

3* Broncos/Chiefs MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Broncos +

I like the value here with the Broncos catching a touchdown here against the Chiefs. While KC has been the better team to this point, the Chiefs have dropped two straight and these division games have a way of being closer than expected regardless of how a team is playing. 

I think Denver's defense is going to be the difference here, as I think they got the weapons to keep KC's offense in check. They have been one of the best in the league against the run and are loaded with talent in the secondary. On the flip side of this, opposing teams have had their way with this Kansas City defense of late and I think the loss of Eric Berry is really being felt, as they just don't have anyone to matchup with opposing tight ends. Just look at how the Raiders offense picked apart this defense and went right back to struggling against the Bills on Sunday. 

Chiefs are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game, while the Broncos are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 off a SU loss. Take Denver!

4* Steelers/Lions SNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lions +

I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Lions have a huge scheduling advantage here coming off their bye and are going to be extremely motivated to get a win sitting at 3-3 and having lost their last two. Note that Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a bye. 

It's well documented that the Steelers offense doesn't produce at the same level on the road. On top of that, I think this is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. In the Steelers two losses this season they failed to reach 100 yards. The only time they won with less than 100 on the ground was Week 1 at Cleveland and they barely snuck out a 21-18 win. The strength of the Lions defense is their ability to stop the run. They come in 7th in the league, giving up just 94.3 ypg and have held opponents under 90 yards in 4 of their 6 games this season. 

While Pittsburgh's offense gets worse on the road, Detroit is a team that seems to alway put up points at home. The Lions are doing just that in 2017, scoring just over 28 ppg at home. As good as the Steelers defense has been playing, I think the Lions are able to do enough here offensively to get the win. Take Detroit! 

5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills -

Everyone has fallen back in love with the Raiders after their crazy 31-30 win over the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. I think it has created some big time value here with Buffalo laying less the a field goal at home. The Bills are sitting at 4-2 and getting absolutely no love from anyone and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder here at home against the Raiders. 

The thing with Oakland's offensive explosion against the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that KC's defense has been giving up a ton of yards this season, they have didn't get the turnovers they are accustomed to and ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. Buffaloes defense is sitting 4th in the league, giving up just 16.8 ppg and let's not forget the Raiders are only averaging 15.3 ppg on the road this season. 

Another key here is that west coast teams like the Raiders often struggle to get going when they have to play on the east coast in the early set of games. It's also worth noting that it's expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of rain, which I think will only add to Oakland's struggles. 

Raiders are just 5-18 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home dog and are 0-8 ATS when that win comes against a division rival. Take Buffalo! 

4* Redskins/Eagles MNF HEAVY HITTER on Eagles -

Washington played the Eagles tough at home back in Week 1, but injuries have really taken it's toll on the Redskins defense since that game. They will be without Josh Norman and rookie defensive line Jonathan Allen, who played a big role in the revamped Washington front on that side of the ball.

The Redskins could also be without a few other key defensive players, but those two are going to be tough to replace against a Philadelphia offense that has only gotten better since these two teams played in the season opener. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defensive front is one of the best in the league and could be getting a big boost in the secondary with the possible return of corner Ronald Darby. 

Factor in the home field advantage here for the Eagles, which is going to be at it's highest during the regular season with this being a prime time showdown on Monday Night Football. You also can't discount the scheduling edge Philadelphia has. The Eagles got a few extra days to prepare and recover after playing on Thursday last week. Washington won't go away easy, but the Eagles should be able to win here by at least a touchdown. Take Philadelphia! 

5* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Pats -

I'll gladly take the Patriots laying just a field goal at home against a Falcons team that looks nothing like the team that cruised to last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta just lost at home off their bye 17-20 to the Dolphins and were up 17-0 at the half. The previous week they lost at home to the Bills and were lucky to come away with wins at both Chicago and Detroit. 

If it wasn't for what the Falcons accomplished last year, which means nothing, this line would be closer to a TD. Keep in mind that the Patriots have been an 8 or more points favorite in each of their previous 3 home games against playoff caliber teams in the Chiefs, Texans and Panthers. Sure Atlanta wants revenge, but Belichick and Brady won't let that happen. 

Not to mention the defense for the Patriots has looked a lot better the last two weeks and it was only a matter of time before Belichick glued the pieces back together on that side of the ball. With an offense that is scoring 28+ ppg, New England can easily turn this into a blowout if Ryan and Falcons continue to play like they have been on offense. I think it's pretty clear that Atlanta really misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and likely won't get back to that elite form we saw from them a year ago. Take New England! 

3* NFL Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Bengals +

Cincinnati is not getting near enough respect here against the Steelers. The Bengals got off to that miserable 0-3 start, where the offense couldn't get anything going in their first two games. I still think they are getting treated like that team, especially against a team the public loves to back in the Steelers. 

Cincinnati could have easily won Week 3 at Green Bay, as they had a 14-poitn lead at the half and were up a touchdown in the 4th quarter of a 24-27 defeat. They bounced back with a 24-point blowout win on the road against the Browns and followed it up with a 20-16 victory over the Bills. The Bengals defense is the real deal and come in 2nd in the league giving up just 16.6 ppg. Keep in mind they are the only defense so far to keep Texans rookie Deshaun Watson in check. They limited him to just 125 passing yards, which is his worst passing yards total by 100 yards. He also didn't throw a TD against them and has thrown at least 2 in every other start (15 total). 

I think that defense will make life miserable for the Steelers, as they will be able to keep Bell in check and force a struggling Ben Roethlisberger to beat them with his arm. Pittsburgh D will keep them in it, but this should come right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Bengals won outright. Take Cincinnati!