Sports Picks & Predictions

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR  on Rams UNDER

Who would have thought these two teams would be headed into Week 6 with a winning record, as both teams come in at 3-2. This is a huge game for both sides, as the winner moves to 4-2 and in good shape of making the playoffs, while the loser falls to 3-3 and has a lot of work left to do. I expect the intensity level to be high and while the offenses have shined at times for both sides, I expect the defenses to be the story in this one. 

Jacksonville's defense has carried them to their strong start. Jacksonville comes in ranked 2nd in scoring defense, giving up just 16.6 ppg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 3rd in the league, allowing only 177.8 ypg. This Rams team is built more on their passing attack, even with the talent Todd Gurley in the backfield. 

Los Angeles' defense had struggled early under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but it was just a matter of time before they got it figured out. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas, where they held the Cowboys to just 6 points and continued last week against the Seahawks. A big reason for the turnaround was Phillips decision to move nose tackle Michael Brockers to defensive end to make way for rookie Tanzal Smart to take over at nose. Phillips also benched starting safety Maurice Alexander (since been released) in favor of rookie John Johnson. I fully expect this defense to continue to play well and the Jaguars are far from an explosive offensive team. 

UNDER is 35-17-1 in the Rams last 53 road games, 10-2 in their last 12 road games after the 1st month of the season and 9-2 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Redskins/49ers UNDER 

Late add here on the total in Sunday's early game between the 49ers and Redskins. I really like what I have seen from this Washington defense. They rank inside the Top 10 in total defense (311.3 ypg) and are 13th in scoring defense (22.8 ppg). Keep in mind they have given up two fumble return for TDs in the final minutes of two of their games to hurt that scoring average. You also can't overlook that they have played 4 of the better offensive teams in the Eagles, Raiders (w/ Carr), Rams and Chiefs. 

San Francisco is by far the worst offense they have faced in 2017. The 49ers have faced 2 defenses that I think are close to on par with the Redskins and that's the Panthers and Seahawks. They totaled just 12-points in the two games combined. They also had just 15 against the Cardinals. Just not enough fire-power for the 49ers. I also think they come out flat here offensively with this being their 3rd straight game on the road and Washington off a bye. 

Key here is that San Francisco's defense should be able to do enough here to keep Washington from putting up a huge number and pushing this over the mark. Note that the Redskins offense isn't quite as dynamic this year, as they have put a little more focus on ball control and running the football. Washington ranks 7th in rushing at 130 ypg. Last year they were 21st at 106 ypg. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Stanford OVER

The books have completely missed the mark here in Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between Stanford and Oregon. I believe the reason this total is so low is the fact that the Ducks offense was a no show last week against Washington State without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. Oregon managed just 10 points and 277 total yards. 

Not a big surprise when you look back at it. The Cougars have an elite defense and took full advantage of the fact that Oregon had to start a true freshman in Braxton Burmeister. Last week backup Tayler Alie wasn't available, but he's good to go and wouldn't be shocked if he started. Either way, I expect Burmeister to play well if he gets the nod. 

That's because the Ducks will have a much easier time moving the ball on the ground against a struggling Stanford defense. This is not your typical Cardinal stop unit, as they come in ranked 91st against the run (182.0 ypg) and 101st against the pass (251.8 ypg). Oregon still ranks 19th in the country in rushing at 239.3 ypg and had scored at least 35 in each of their previous 5 games. 

It won't just be the Ducks scoring early and often, Stanford's offense has come to life with sophomore K.J. Costello getting more reps at quarterback. They also have the nation's best running back in Bryce Love, who comes into this game with 1,240 rushing yards, which is almost 250 more yards than the next best. While Oregon's defense is improved from last year, they have allowed 30+ to the likes of Nebraska, Arizona State and Washington State. Expect Stanford to do the same. 

OVER is 10-1-1 in Oregon's last 11 following a double-digit loss at home and 45-19-2 in their last 66 off a loss by more than 20. OVER is also 5-0 in the Cardinal's last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on North Texas UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Saturday's C-USA showdown between UTSA and North Texas. The Roadrunners joined C-USA in 2013 and these two teams have been in the same division. Each of the previous 4 meetings have not seen more than 61 points and I expect that trend to continue.

This is a big time game for the Mean Green, as most have labeled UTSA as the team to beat in the West. I expect a big time effort here from North Texas at home in this spot, especially with the game being played under the lights. 

The Roadrunners come in averaging 35.2 ppg, but most of the damage came against a couple of bad teams. They scored 51 on Southern and 44 against Texas State. They only managed 17 in their opener against Baylor and just 29 last week against Southern Miss. I think North Texas can keep them around that 30 point mark. 

As for UTSA's defense, it's been really good to start the season. In fact, the Roadrunners come in ranked 9th in the nation, giving up just 270 ypg and a mere 4.8 yards/play. It's by far the best defense the Mean Green have seen outside of Iowa, who they only managed 14 points against. 

UNDER is 15-5 in North Texas' last 20 games off a conference win by 10 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 when they come in having won two straight against conference opponents. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma UNDER

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in Saturday's Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas. I just feel the total here has been inflated given the fact that Oklahoma has allowed 41 to Baylor and 38 to ISU in their last two games, as well as the fact that Texas is coming off a high-scoring game against Kansas State. Not to mention these two combined for 85 in last year's matchup. 

Each of the previous 3 meetings in the series all had a combined score of 57 or less and I think that's a lot closer to what the total should be in this one. I know these two teams have some big time weapons on offense, but a game of this magnitude almost always sides to the defense. Despite the poor showings of late, Oklahoma comes in ranked 44th in total defense and Texas is sitting at 42nd. 

This is still the same Sooners defense that held Ohio State's potent offense to just 16 points earlier this season. I think they went in with big heads against the Bears and Cyclones, but will be 100% locked in here, especially off that unthinkable upset loss at home to ISU. Keep Texas' offense wasn't great in their previous two games, scoring just 24 against USC and a mere 17 on the road against Iowa State. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Longhorns last 14 when coming into a game off a win and a perfect 7-0 the last two years after playing their previous two against conference opponents. UNDER is also 21-7 in Texas' last 28 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Sooners last 6 games played on a neutral field. Take the UNDER! 

4* Eagles/Panthers TNF Total NO BRAINER on Panthers UNDER

While we have two good offenses run by two of the better QBs in the NFL, I think it will the defenses that dictate this one. I also feel the number on the total is inflated given that the Eagles have gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 and the Panthers have went OVER in each of their last 3. A lot of that had to do with who these teams played. 

The Eagles are only giving up 19.8 ppg and the strength of their defense is stopping the run. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the league, giving up just 62.8 ypg. Carolina is a team that would much rather run the ball, but haven't had a ton of success because of a shaky offensive line. I expect Cam to make some plays, but there's going to be a lot of drives that don't result in points. 

I see a similar story for the Eagles' offense, as they go up against a really talented Carolina defense that has really played well to start the season. The Panthers rank 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and are 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. 

UNDER is 39-17 in the Eagles last 56 games after a contest where they scored 30 or more. It's also 18-4 in the Panthers last 22 off a close road win by 3 points or less and 9-1 in their last 10 home games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DOMINATOR' on Purdue UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's Big Ten matchup between Minnesota and Purdue. The Gophers were just upset at home by Maryland 31-24 for their first loss of the season. It was almost as if Minnesota didn't take the Terps seriously because they were down to a 3rd string QB that really struggled in their previous game. 

Fleck knows how to get the troops ready and he will have had the Gophers full attention in practice this week. I look for Minnesota to really come out strong on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind this defense had allowed a total of 24 points in their first 3 games combined. Purdue's offense is limited, totaling just 189 yards against the Wolverines. 

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country under first year head coach Jeff Brohm. This team competed in a 7-point loss to Louisville, made easy work of Ohio and Missouri and had a lead on Michigan at the half before fading late. 

I look for the Boilermakers defense to really make it hard on the Gophers offense, which is pretty limited to start with. Minnesota has no real threat of a passing game, as they rank 100th in the country at a mere 187 ypg. While running the ball is their focus, they are just 58th in rushing at 180.8 ypg. Purdue's defense has had their struggles against the pass, but rank in the top 50 against the run, only giving up 132 ypg (allowed 238 ypg last year). They also have had two full weeks to prepare for Minnesota off their bye. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Sharp Money 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Penn State UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's Penn State/Northwestern matchup. The fact that both these teams played in a game last week that saw more than 53 points, will certainly have the public looking to back the OVER. 

The thing is, both of those games that these two teams played in were fortunate to eclipse 50 points. The Nittany Lions had 2 non-offensive touchdowns in a 28 point 1st quarter. They also had a stretch of close to 25 minutes of game time where they didn't score at all. They only had 370 total yards and 20 first downs. Keep in mind they only had 21 the previous week against Iowa. 

Northwestern really made life easy on the Badgers. Wisconsin had just one scoring drive where they had to go more than 50 yards, plus added a defensive touchdown. There was also 16 garbage points scored in the final 5 minutes. The Wildcats only finished that game with 244 total yards and it's not the first time they have struggled. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg. 

Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). On the flip side of this, I look for Northwestern's defense to compete enough here to keep this well below the mark. Take the UNDER! 

5* American Athletic 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Memphis UNDER

This is just too many points for these two teams. UConn is coming of back-to-back games where they combined for at least 77 points, but that was against the likes of East Carolina and SMU, who aren't known for their defense. This still still the same offense that scored 7-points in the 1st half at home against Holy Cross and just 18 at Virginia. 

I know Memphis' has some poor numbers defensively, but a big reason for that is they have faced two big time offenses in UCLA and UCF. I'm not saying they will be able to shutdown this UConn offense, but I do think they can get off the field and make the Huskies work for every point they do get. 

As for the Connecticut defense, they will have their work cut out for them, but they should be a little better than normal at home in a prime time matchup like this, where they know a lot of people will be tuning in because it's one of just two college games on the schedule Friday. Memphis also has consistently shot themselves in the foot, as they have 9 turnovers in their first 4 games, including 4 last week in their first road game of the season. 

UNDER is 35-17 in the Tigers' last 52 road games against conference opponents, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring fewer than 20 points. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Huskies last 5 home games against a team with a winning home record, 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 200+ rushing yards in their last game and 18-8 in their last 26 off a loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday 'TOTAL ANNIHILATOR' on Pats UNDER

I like the value here with the total in Thursday Night Football's showdown between the Patriots and Buccaneers. All we have heard about coming into this game is how bad New England's defense has been playing.

It has been bad, but it's also forced the books to inflate this total tonight. This total is higher than 55 that the books set when the Patriots were playing at New Orleans. I just don't think Jameis Winston and the Bucs have the same offensive fire-power as Drew Brees and the Saints. 

At the same time, no one is better at figuring out the problem and getting it fixed than Bill Belichick. Look for the Patriots offense to help out the defense here and try to take a little more time off the clock when they have the ball.

I actually think the Bucs are going to have a similar strategy here, as they don't want to give the ball to Brady and that high-powered Patriots offense. Good news for Tampa is they get back their best back in Doug Martin and should be able to have some success on the ground in this one. 

I also expect an all out effort here by the Bucs defense, who desperately want to play well here at home in a prime time game. UNDER is 8-1 in the Pats last 9 games played on grass and is 4-1 in the Bucs last 5 games at home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Rams UNDER

I think we are getting a drastically inflated total here. Dallas has the perception of being a high-scoring team and just scored 28 on the road on Monday Night Football against what most consider to be a good Cardinals defense. The Cowboys were fortunate to get to 28 points with just 273 total yards. Das Prescott only threw for 183, as he continues to struggle. This Dallas offense only had 19 in Week 1 against the Giants and 17 the week before against the Broncos. 

I know this Rams defense has looked bad to start the year, but there's a ton of the same players from last year's defense that was really good. Including arguably the best interior defensive lineman in the league in Aaron Donald. He's more than good enough to cause some problems for the Cowboys o-line. I also think it's only a matter of time before Wade Phillips get this unit playing up to it's potential. This could very well be the week, as they have had a few extra days of practice and preparation after playing on Thursday in Week 2. Keep in mind Dallas is on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football. That one day difference might not seem like much, but every day matters when it comes to recovering from an NFL game. 

While the offense is overvalued right now, the Dallas defense doesn't get near the respect they deserve. They get treated like one of the worst units in the league because they don't have any super stars the fans can relate to. They finished 14th in total defense and 5th in scoring defense last year. The Rams looked good offensively on prime time, but that was against the 49ers. They  didn't look nearly as good the previous week against Washington. I don't see them lighting up this defense on the road. Take the UNDER 48! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DESTROYER' on Iowa UNDER

This has the makings of a low-scoring game, as we have two teams that like to grind it out offensively with their running game and are stout on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan State comes in ranked 9th in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg and are 31st in rushing at 220.7 ypg. Iowa isn't ranked as high defensively or in the running game, but watching this team play that defensive front is very good and they got one of the top backs in the country behind a really good offensive line.

There's also a ton a familiarity between these two teams, as Mark Dantonio is in his 11th year with Michigan State and Kirk Ferentz is going on his 19th year at Iowa. Both teams run similar schemes as they have in the past and that's a big advantage for both defenses. The last time these two teams played was the 2015 Big Ten title game and the final score was 16-13. Only once in the last 7 seasons have these two combined for more than 44 points. 

UNDER is 23-12 in the Hawkeyes last 35 as a underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 15-6 in their last 21 road games against a team that is allowing 310 or less yards/game. UNDER is also 14-5 in Michigan State's last 19 home games as a favorite of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on South Florida UNDER

I think the value here is clearly with the UNDER on this massive total for Saturday's action between East Carolina and South Florida. The Bulls have a high-powered offense that has scored 30+ in all 4 games this season and will be taking on a ECU defense that has allowed at least 34 in all 4 of their games, including 64 to Va Tech. 

I just don't see the Bulls being 100% focused for this one after a couple of prime time weekday games the last two weeks against Illinois and Temple. It's not like we haven't seen them come out flat before. Just look back to their opener when they trailed San Jose State 16-0 after 1 quarter. Add in this being a road game and early start time, I think we get a USF team that just goes through the motions. 

East Carolina figures to get for this game and we will need them to put up some kind of resistance here. I just don't think the offense will be able to do enough here to push this over the mark. All the attention goes to South Florida's offense, but the defense is playing lights out as well. The Bulls  rank 13th in the country, allowing just 263.8 ypg and are 3rd against the run (66 ypg). 

UNDER is 25-10-1 in the Bulls last 36 against a team with a losing record and 17-8-1 in their last 26 on the road. UNDER is also 11-4 in East Carolina's last 15 conference games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total 'HEAVY HITTER' on Rice OVER

I think the books have really set the bar too low with the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Pittsburgh and Rice. The Panthers come in having scored just 14, 21 and 17 points over their last 3 games, but those came against Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. 

Needless to say Pitt's offense is looking forward to this one, as they take on an Owls defense that is giving up 37.0 ppg and 472 ypg (88th). That's with half their games against UTEP and FIU, where they held them both to 14 or less. They gave up 62 in their opener against Stanford. While they only gave up 38 to Houston, that's only because the Cougars took their foot off the gas. Houston had 38 points with 4 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter. 

I don't think it's out of the question that the Panthers cover this total on their own, but I do think there's a good chance here the Owls contribute to this total. Rice will be facing a Pitt defense that ranks 114th in the country, ranking outside the Top 100 against both the run and the pass. Even if Rice struggles early, they should be able to score late when it gets out of hand. Take the OVER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

5* NCAAF Big Ten 'TOTAL OF THE YEAR' Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER

I really like the value here with UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten clash between Northwestern and Wisconsin. These are two teams that take a lot of pride on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin features one of the elite units in the country.

The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in their loss at Duke, where they scored just 17 points and finished with 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts. 

Northwestern's defense isn't on the same level as the Badgers and actually comes in giving up some big numbers against both the run and the pass, but came out with a different attitude after that blowout loss to the Blue Devils. Factor in they are coming off a bye and I like their chances of keeping what I feel is a pretty average Wisconsin in check. The Wildcats also have a history of not letting the Badgers get going offensively, as they have held them to 21 or fewer points each of the last 3 seasons. In the last 3 games, the highest combined total was 44 and I don't see them getting there this year. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Northwestern's last 10 games in the month of September, 8-1 in their last 9 off a home win and 11-3 in their last 14 off a cover. UNDER is also a perfect 9-0 in Wisconsin's last 9 games after they put together 2 straight dominant performances where they had 34 or more minutes in time of possession and 24+ first downs. Take the UNDER! 

4* Illinois/Nebraska Friday Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER

I'm expecting a very boring and low-scoring Big Ten affair Friday night between Nebraska and Illinois. Both of these teams are struggling offensively out of the gate. The Cornhuskers come in ranked 90th in the country in total offense at just 378.5 ypg. The Fighting Illini are even worst, as they come in 121st in total offense at 179.7 ypg (rank outside Top 100 in both rushing and passing). 

Nebraska was able to put up some points in their first two games against Arkansas State and Oregon, but a lot of that had to do with the lackluster defense on the other side and the pace of the game. Neither of these teams tonight are looking to push the tempo and I expect to see a lot more punts than drives that end in points. 

I know Illinois' defensive numbers aren't great, as they are 101st in total defense. The thing is, a lot of that came from that ugly loss to USF, who is one of the better teams in the country with some electric playmakers on offense. They held a decent Ball State offense to just 21 in their opener and a WKU offense to just 7 in game 2. Given Nebraska's problems offensively and this being a home night game, I think we see an inspired Illinois defense that delivers a solid performance. That should be more than enough to keep this below the mark. 

UNDER is 10-2 in Nebraska's last 12 conference games and 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 20 or less in their previous game. UNDER is also in Illinois' last 6 after giving up 40+ points, 14-5 in their last 19 at home and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. Take the UNDER! 

4* ISU/Texas Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Iowa State UNDER 

I think the value here is with the UNDER in Thursday's Big 12 matchup between Iowa State and Texas. Each of the last two meetings in this series have been very low scoring. In 2015, last time they played at ISU, the two combined for 24 points. Last year in Texas they only managed to combine for 33. 

I do think it's going to be a little more high-scoring than each of those, but we got a lot of wiggle room with this total. For the two to eclipse this mark, they are going to have average roughly 16 points, which is basically 2 touchdowns and a field goal each period. I just don't think we see that much scoring here. 

Keep in mind that both of these teams were off last week, so each has had extra time to prepare for the opponent. That's typically a bigger edge for the defenses, as they really can get into the tendencies of each team. Add in the extra energy level with this being a prime time game on Thursday night in front of an ESPN audience and we should see both offenses struggle to get going. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Texas' last 10 overall, 25-9 in their last 34 against the Big 12 and 20-6 in their last 26 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Prime Time 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Iowa/Penn St UNDER

Late edition here with the UNDER in tonight's Big Ten showdown between Penn State and Iowa. These two teams played last year and combined for 55 and that was with the Nittany Lions hanging 41 on the Hawkeyes. I just don't see Penn State being able to have that same kind of success offensively against a good and fired up Iowa defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans in a rare night game. 

Iowa's defense is allowing less than 100 yards on the ground (97 ypg) and holding teams to a half-yard below their average. They also are allowing opposing QBs to complete just 57.4 % of their passes. Penn State is only allowing 3 yards/carry against the run and if you can slow down Iowa's rushing attack they really have a hard time sustaining drives. 

Iowa knows they have to avoid the big plays and make Penn State work for everything they get. We saw Pittsburgh hold them to just 312 yards a couple weeks back and I think this Hawkeyes defense is way better than the Panthers. I just see both teams having a hard time here getting the offense going and see this one finishing closer to 45 than 55. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Missouri/Auburn UNDER 

I really like the value here with Saturday's SEC cross matchup between Auburn and Missouri staying under the total. Missouri's offense turned some heads in their opener, which saw them hang 72 against Missouri St, but that proved to be just them taking advantage of a bad team. 

Since that huge offensive outburst, Missouri has totaled a mere 13 points at home to Auburn and 3 to Purdue (only 203 total yards). Now the Tigers go against the best defense they will have seen in Auburn, who is currently 2nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 201.7 ypg. That's no fluke either, as they held Clemson to just 14-points and 281 total yards. I just don't see any way that Missouri scores more than 14 on the road and wouldn't be shocked if they didn't score a point. 

If Missouri was able to get to 14, Auburn would have to score 47 for us to lose. I just don't see that happening. Auburn's highest output this year is 41 and last week they only managed 24 against Mercer. With a potentially huge game looming on deck at home against Miss St, I don't see Auburn running up the score either. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Auburn's last 16 games overall and 11-3 in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. UNDER is also 13-4 in Missouri's last 17 conference games and 8-1 in their last 9 after 2 straight games where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! 

3* Lions/Giants MNF Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Giants/Lions OVER

I just think the books have set the total too low in a big overreaction to how bad the Giants offense looked in Week 1 against the Cowboys. Especially now the star wide out Odell Beckham Jr. is listed as probable. Having him on the field is going to really open up the offense for New York and I'm not buying the Lions defense. 

Detroit's defense wasn't great in Week 1 against the Cardinals and I just don't see them being able to keep the Giants from moving the ball and finishing off drives with touchdowns. While New York's defense is solid, they could be without a key piece in corner Janoris Jenkins, who was downgraded to questionable. 

History also suggest a high-scoring game here with NY, as the OVER is 17-8 in the Giants last 25 games after a game where they accumulated less than 250 total yards. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on N Ill/Nebraska UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this one. Like a lot of the midwest teams, Nebraska and Northern Illinois are built on the running game. At least that's how they want to play. The Cornhuskers had to throw it 41 times vs Oregon and Tanner Lee was 19 of 41 with 4 picks. The Huskies had to throw it against BC and were just 16 of 39 passing.

I believe both will be able to at least move the chains on the ground, but will have to work for it. That's going to lead to a lot more time running off the clock between plays (less stoppage on first downs) and fewer possessions. Exactly what we are looking for when playing the UNDER. 

I also like this spot for Northern Illinois' defense, as they catch Nebraska in a letdown spot after that huge game against Oregon last week. Key here is the Huskies have the talent and coaching to make this a dogfight and possibly pull off the upset. 

The big concern with the under is the fact that Nebraska has allowed 36 to Arkansas and 42 to Oregon. I just don't think Northern Illinois is the kind of offense that can put up those kind of numbers. Arkansas St threw it 68 times for 415 yards and Oregon's talent and tempo are going to put up points against just about every defense. Take the UNDER! 

3* Texans/Bengals TNF Total 'NO BRAINER' on OVER

Given what we saw in Week 1, which was the Bengals getting shutout at home and the Texans managing just 9 at home against the Jags,  it's going to be extremely difficult for the public to take the OVER, and they rarely side with the UNDER. I believe we are seeing a classic Week 1 overreaction and a ton of value on this extremely low total for Thursday Night Football. 

Keep in mind that NFL players hate these Thursday night games and a big reason is because their bodies just don't have the time to recover. I believe that's a big reason why we see defenses struggle to play up to their potential in this spot. At the same time, both offenses are better than what they showed. 

Cincinnati's got some playmakers on offense and Dalton isn't going to throw 4 picks and have a fumble. Houston has Watt and Clowney, but the overall talent isn't great and they just lost a key piece in linebacker Brian Cushing. 

As for the Texans offense, I like their decision here to go with the rookie Watson. His ability to scramble is critical with how poor Houston's pass blocking was in the opener. He's also likely to make a couple rookie mistakes, which likely sets the Bengals up with some easy scoring opportunities. A simple 21-17 or 24-14 final would get us a winning ticket. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Week Night 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Boise St/New Mexico UNDER

The books have made a big mistake here with this total. I don't see near enough offense given the circumstance for this to eclipse the mark set by the books. What is going to get overlooked by a lot of people with Boise State is just how good their defense has played. They see they just allowed 47 to Washington State last week. However, 16 of those came in OT and they didn't give up a TD to a great Cougars offense until the 4th quarter. Not to mention the offense aided Wash St with an interception that was returned for a TD. 

That also happened in their opener against Troy, when another pick-six was thrown. Keep in mind they held a good Trojans offense to just 6 points and 215 total yards. Now they face a New Mexico team that went into the 4th quarter last week trailing their in-state rival 30-5. Sure they rallied to make it 28-30 and actually could have tied it had they converted a 2-pt play. I think that has a lot more to do with the Aggies letting their foot off the gas and it nearly biting them. 

Given how the Broncos just had one of the more tougher losses to swallow you will find all season, the fact that they will be constantly reminded of loss at home to New Mexico last time they were here and this is a nationally televised game (only one on the schedule) at home with new uniforms, I expect the defensive intensity to be there. 

The key here is the offense for Boise State doesn't figure to be scoring every time they touch the ball. Starting QB Brett Rypien is hurt and it looks like he won't play. That limits the playbook some. As long as we can avoid a bunch of non-offensive scores, I think this finishes closer to 45 than 60. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Georgia Tech/Tennessee UNDER

I don't think there will be enough offensive fireworks for these two teams to eclipse this total in Monday's Labor Day primetime matchup. Both teams have a lot of experience and talent back on the defensive side of the ball. Tennessee returns 7 starters and several others who got playing time after they were hit hard with injuries on this side of the ball last year.

A lot of people are going to see they gave up 5.0 yard/carry and over 200 yards/game on the ground and think Georgia Tech is going to run all over them. I'm not buying it. If you look back at the first 5 games when Tennessee was 5-0 and were still relatively healthy, they played the run very well. You also can't ignore the fact that Georgia Tech has to replace talented starting QB Justin Thomas, who was one of the better passers in the Paul Johnson era. 

As for the Volunteers offense, they too have to replace a talented starting QB in Joshua Dobbs, as well as two really gifted backs in Kamara and Hurd and star wide out Malone. Not to mention they are learning a new system under first year OC Larry Scott. 

We know Georgia Tech is going to run the football and I expect Tennessee to do the same behind one of the more talented o-lines in the country. That's ideal for a low scoring game, as each team will eat up clock and possessions will be limited. Take the UNDER! 

3* Situational Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Troy/Boise St OVER 

I believe the real value in Saturday's clash between the Troy Trojans and the Boise State Broncos is on it going over the total.

Boise State averaged 33.8 ppg and 473 ypg last year and that’s one of their lower totals in recent seasons. I look for an uptick offensively in 2017. The offense will be firmly in the hands of junior starting QB Brett Rypien. A two time 1st-Team All-MWC signal caller with a 44-16 TD-INT ratio in his first two seasons.

He’s going to have to do more with the loss of star running back Jeremy McNichols (314 attempts, 1,709 yards, 23 TDs). That means bigger chunk plays and series that don't eat up a ton of clock.

I'm not concerned with the fact that Troy held opponents to just 22.1 ppg last year. That’s aided by playing in the Sun Belt. While they return 6 starters on defense, they have to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. They are going to take a step back, plus you have to factor in playing on the road in a tough environment. 

The key here is that I fully expect the Trojans offense to hold their own against the Broncos. Troy likes to play with some pace. Not a big surprise given their head coach use to be the OC at Texas Tech. They put up 33.7 ppg and 430 ypg last year, including 24 points and 386 yards against a dominant Clemson defense.

Boise State always fields a respectable defense, but with only 4 starters back in 2017, this figured to be one of their weaker units. They also haven’t been as good since former head coach Chris Petersen left for Washington. Keep in mind that this is now the 4th year removed from Petersen and his recruits.

OVER is 40-15 in the Trojans last 55 non-conference games and 22-9 in their last 31 road games in the month of September. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on South Carolina UNDER

I just feel the books have set the total too high for this non-conference showdown between two Power 5 programs. South Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, but this is a team that doesn't figure to push the tempo and only averaged 20.8 ppg last year and that was with them scoring 34 against UMass and 44 against Western Carolina. They managed 14 or fewer points in 7 games. 

I think the Gamecocks will struggle to score here against an NC State team that should have one of the best defenses in the country. They certainly have one of the most talented defensive lines, which is going to give even the best offensive lines trouble and SC is far from elite upfront. 

The Gamecocks were respectable on the defensive side of the ball and I look for them to give NC State some trouble here. The Wolfpack are more conventional on offense, not trying to play at a ridiculous pace and air it out on every play. They only average 27 ppg last year, scoring 20 or fewer in 6 games. They get a lot back but I don't see them exploding against a SEC defense. Take the UNDER!

5*  NCAAF Vegas 'NO LIMIT' Total Top Play on Memphis UNDER 67

The forecast for this game is calling for heavy rain throughout the contest with winds blowing at close to 20 mph. The conditions simply aren't going to allow for either of these teams to open up their playbook. Each is going to have to run the football a lot more than they would like. I also think it keeps the heavy favorite in Memphis from worrying about running up the score to look good, but instead focusing on just getting out this game without any of their key players suffering an injury, especially given they have a big road game next week at UCF to open up AAC play. 

The biggest key here is that Memphis doesn't figure to be throwing the ball over the field, which would have likely led to a lot of quick scores. They are still going to have plenty of success on the ground, but that's going to keep the clock moving. As for the Warhawks, they could have a really hard time generating points. Memphis had some lackluster defensive efforts last year against the better teams they played, but were strong against the bottom feeders. While they allowed 455 ypg, they gave up fewer than 315 yards in 6 of their 13 games. ULM is one of those teams they can handle and the conditions here will only make that much harder for the Warhawks. Take the UNDER! 

*Play is still recommended at current line*

4* Early Bird TaxSlayer Bowl Total No Brainer on Kentucky/Ga Tech OVER

I really like the value here on the total and this one going well over the mark set by the books. Both of these teams shouldn’t have much problem getting their offense going.

Kentucky comes in averaging 31.0 ppg and put up 35+ in 5 of their final 6 games. The Wildcats have a dynamic rushing attack that finished 16th in the country at 241.3 ypg. You also can’t sleep on the passing game. Stephen Johnson thew for 9 of his 12 touchdowns in the final 6 games. He finished the season off with 338 yards and 3 scores against Louisville.

They should find plenty of success against a Georgia Tech defense that wasn’t great. The Yellow Jackets finished 64th against the run and 74th against the pass. They gave up 4.8 yards/carry on the ground and allowed QB’s to complete 62.7% of their attempts.

On the flip side of this, Georgia Tech’s triple-option should make life miserable for UK. The Wildcats finished 108th in the country in run defense, giving up 225.0 ypg. I know they will have had a month to prepare for the option. The problem is if you haven’t played against it, it’s really hard to stop and the Wildcats simply aren't familiar with the option offense. I look for a lot of mental breakdowns for Kentucky’s defense, which is going to lead to big plays and quick scores.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Wildcats defense was much worse away from home. Kentucky gave up 37.4 ppg on the road this season. They allowed 5.8 yards/carry and 9.4 yards/pass attempt. Georgia Tech doesn’t throw a lot, but when they do it goes for big gains. I think they throw a few wrinkles in for this one that catch Kentucky off guard.

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in Kentucky’s last 7 non-conference games and 7-0 after an upset win as a double-digit dog. OVER is also 12-4-1 in Georgia Tech’s last 17 non-conference games. Take the OVER!

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Redskins/Bears OVER

I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks in this one. Washington is a team that just seems to find themselves in high-scoring games, but are coming off a 15-26 loss at home to the Panthers, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be. Prior to that game, Washington had a total of 48 or more in 6 of their previous 7 games, the only exception coming against the Vikings, which had a total of 42 (combined for 46).

The Bears defense hasn't been horrible, but I think they are going to have a really hard time showing up here. They put everything they had into last week's home game against rival Green Bay. Even if they did come to play, they were going to struggle to slow down this high-powered Washington offense that hasn't failed to score fewer than 20 points in back-to-back games all season. 

The big key here is the Bears offense should be able to keep pace with the Redskins. Washington's defense is atrocious and have allowed 20 or more points in 9 straight games, giving up 26 or more in 3 of their last 4. Chicago has had their ups and downs offensively, but I really like what I have seen out of Barkley and he just threw for 354 yards and 2 scores against the Packers last week. That game was the first for Barkley with Alshon Jeffery, who returned from a suspension. Jeffrey caught 6 passes for 89 yards and 1 touchdown and I look for him to be even more involved this week.

OVER is 8-1 in Washington's last 9 with a spread of 3 or less, 9-1 this season with a total of 42.5 to 49 and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a SU loss. OVER is also 9-1 in the Bears last 10 home games off a home loss to a division rival and 13-2 in their last 15 after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Take the OVER!

5* Armed Forces Bowl Total of the Month on OVER

I actually think there's some great value here with the total and this one going well OVER the mark here. The perception here is that Navy's offense won't be able to produce like it had been now that they are down to their 3rd string quarterback, who only managed to guide the Midshipmen offense to just 17 points in a loss to Army. That came after Navy only managed to score 10 points in the ACC title game against Temple. While Louisiana Tech has a strong run defense, this triple-option offense is extremely difficult to stop, even when you have had ample amount of time to prepare. The Bulldogs also close out the season giving up 35, 39 and 58 points in their final 3 games.

I believe Navy can score in the 28-35 range, which should be more than enough to push this over the mark. Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense that can score quickly and this Navy defense has struggled all season giving up big plays and simply aren't that talented on that side of the ball. The Midshipmen finished 74th against the run (187.0 ypg) and 80th against the pass (242.2 ypg). They have allowed 30+ points in 6 of their last 9 games, 3x giving up 40 or more. Due to playing in the ACC title game and then having to turn around and play Army the next week, Navy hasn't had a lot of time to prep for this game, so don't expect the defense to be any better than it has been against top tier offenses like we have here with the Bulldogs.

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Bulldogs 7 games this season with a total posted between 63.5 and 70 points and 9-1 when it's more than 63. OVER is also 21-9 in La Tech's last 30 when facing a team that averages 34 or more points/game and 9-2 in Navy's last 11 when facing a high-powered offense that averages 425 or more yards/game. Take the OVER!

5* Miami Beach Bowl Veges Insider Top Play on OVER

This has all the makings of a shootout, with both teams putting up big offensive numbers. All you really have to do is look at Tulsa’s results this season to see why the over should be a good play. The Golden Hurricane feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They rank 6th in the country in total offense (522.6 ypg) and 11th in scoring (41.3 ppg). Tulsa has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season. That being an early season road game against a superior Ohio State team.

I look for Tulsa to score 40+ here against the Chippewas. Central Michigan’s defense has been exposed on a number of occasions. They allowed 49 to both Virginia and Western Michigan. They also gave up 31 to Toledo and 37 to Miami (OH).

Not only have the Golden Hurricane been putting up a lot of points, they have allowed quite a few as well. Tulsa defense ranks 80th in total defense (432.4 ypg) and are T-89th in points allowed (31.5 ppg). They are equally as bad against the run (184.1 ypg, 73rd) as they are against the pass (248.3 ypg, 89th).

I’m aware that Central Michigan’s offense has struggled of late. The Chippewas didn’t score more than 28-points in a single conference game. I’m not concerned. This Tulsa defense has made bad offenses look great all season long. Just look at their regular season finale against Cincinnati.

Tulsa allowed the Bearcats to score 37 points and rack up 534 yards of total offense. Note that Cincinnati scored 20 or fewer points in 7 of their 12 games. They had scored a mere 26 in their previous 4 games combined before exploding against Tulsa.

It’s also worth pointing out the Chippewas have a legit QB in senior Cooper Rush. He’s a potential late round NFL draft pick, who can sling it. He completed 61.1% of his attempts for 3,299 yards and 23 touchdowns. He averaged 338.0 passing yards/game in Central Michigan’s 4 non-conference games. In those contests, the Chippewas averaged 39.5 ppg.

OVER is 26-6 (81%) over the last 10 seasons in games with a total between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games.Take the OVER!

4* Patriots/Broncos NFL Situational No Brainer on UNDER

There's a lot of interest on the spread in this one, but I think the value here is on the total and this one going UNDER the mark. These are two of the best defenses in the league and the conditions this time of year certainly favor that side of the ball. Denver comes in 3rd in total defense (310.7 ypg) and 6th in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). New England is 10th in total defense (338.1 ypg) and 3rd in scoring defense (17.7 ppg). Both also rank in the top 13 in the league in 3rd down defense, which is key here, as both sides will struggle to sustain drives.

I know the Patriots offense looked great against the Ravens last week, but that was at home and Baltimore is better suited to stop the run than the pass and lost one of their top corners early in that game. New England's offense simply isn't the same without Gronkowski, especially in the redzone. Denver's pass rush should also play a huge factor in not allowing Brady and company to put up many long drives.

Don't really need to go into detail on the struggles with Denver's offense. Trevor Siemian simply isn't the quarterback talent required to have success against a Belichick coached defense. The Broncos inability to run the football will be detrimental to their success offensively in this one, as Belichick will put together a gameplan to make sure Denver's two star wideouts are a non factor.

The other big key here is what this game means to both teams. New England desperately wants to get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and to do so can't afford to lose this game. As for the Broncos, this has the feeling of a playoff game, as they are barely hanging on to the final Wild Card spot and the schedule doesn't get any easier after this one. All signs point to a low scoring game. Take the UNDER!

5* 49ers/Falcons NFL No Limit Top Play on OVER

I don't know that the books can set a total high enough here, as they are pretty stubborn when it comes to listing a total much more than this. I expect plenty of points here from Atlanta, who isn't going to let their foot off the gas, as they are tied with the Bucs for first in the NFC South and failing to win the division could result in missing the playoffs completely.

The Falcons come in clicking offensively, having scored 28 or more in each of their last 3, including a 42 point outburst last week at the Rams. Keep in mind they were missing Julio Jones and going up against a pretty good LA defense. Now they face a 49ers defense that ranks dead last in the NFL, giving up 415 ypg. San Francisco is also giving up an average of 29.5 ppg on the road and have zero to play for at this juncture of the season.

The key here is that I believe the 49ers can provide enough scoring to get this well over the 50-point mark. San Francisco is a 2 touchdown dog in this one, so I don't see the defensive intensity being there for Atlanta. At the same time, the Falcons figure to get out to a comfortable lead and will be quick to play it safe and avoid anyone getting hurt. That means some favorable scoring opportunities will come the 49ers way in the 2nd half and we should only need them to score around 20 to cash this ticket.

OVER is 6-0 in Atlanta's 6 home games this season and a perfect 7-0 when playing in a dome. OVER is also 4-2 in the 49ers 6 road games (avg score of 53.2 ppg). Over also a perfect 6-0 in the 49ers last 6 road games against excellent passing teams, who are completing 64% or more more of their attempts (Falcons are completing 72% at home this season). Take the OVER!

5* NFC North Total of the Month on Bears/Lions OVER

I know these two teams only combined for 31 points in the first meeting. But keep in mind the total for that one was 48 and is now 43.5. That’s a big jump and this time they are playing in ideal conditions with Detroit playing in a Dome.

If you look back over the years, these two have a history of lighting up the scoreboard when the Lions are hosting. In fact, the last 4 meetings in Detroit have seen a combined score of at least 50 points. Last year the two combined for 71 in a 37-34 Lions win.

I certainly don’t expect the Bears to hold Detroit under 20 points again. The Lions are clicking offensively after putting up 422 yards of offense on the Saints last week. A game if they don’t settle for 5 field goals, could have scored 40+ on their own. Chicago’s defense played well against the 49ers last Sunday, but that’s not saying much. Plus the conditions were ideal for a low-scoring game with the snow and wind at Soldier Field.

One of the reasons we are seeing a low total is the Bears are starting Matt Barkley at quarterback. I’ve actually been really impressed with him in his two starts. He threw for 316 yards and 3 scores against the Titans in Week 12 and that was with his receivers dropping 10 passes. he then completed 61% and threw for 192 yards in the awful conditions last week. As good as the Lions secondary was against Brees last week, they still rank 20th against the pass.

OVER is 11-2 in Detroit’s last 13 after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games. It’s also 12-2 in the Lions last 14 after a road win by 10 or more points. OVER is also 5-1 in the Bears last 6 after allowing 15 or less and 25-12 in their last 37 road games. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on Temple/Navy UNDER

I think we are getting some big time value on the UNDER in Saturday's total between Temple and Navy in the AAC Championship Game. I believe a lot of that has to do with the recent results for Navy, who has put up 66 and 75 points in their last two games. While you don't really expect the Midshipmen to put up those kind of points, it wasn't all that surprising given it came against East Carolina and SMU. The Pirates have the 110th ranked rushing defense and the Mustangs are far behind with the 96th ranked rushing defense.

It's about to get a whole lot harder to run the ball for Navy, as they are facing a stingy Temple defense that finished the regular season ranked 3rd in the country in total defense, allowing just 273.5 ypg. They were sensational against the run, giving up just 128 ypg and a mere 3.6 yards/carry. I know it's a lot different stopping a normal rushing attack compared to Navy's triple-option attack, but the Owls have already faced two triple-option teams in Army and Tulane, so the principles of how to attack this offense are fresh with these players.

Now I know Navy's defense hasn't been great, but this is a good matchup for the Midshipmen. Their biggest weakness on defense is stopping the pass, as they were a mere 107th in the country, giving up 264.9 ypg. Temple's not a great passing team and more than anything they want to run the football, as they averaged 42 rushing attempts a game, compared to just 27 pass attempts (averaging 50+ rush attempts in their last 6 games).

Both teams here are going to pound the rock when they have it, which is going to eat up the clock and limit the possessions for both sides. On top of that, neither of these teams like to push the tempo, so we can expect to see a lot of long drives. Exactly what we are looking for when taking an UNDER with a total north of 60. Take the UNDER!

4* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 Champ No Brainer on UNDER

The value in this matchup is on the total. When you think of the Pac-12, you think of high-scoring offenses and lackluster defense (with the exception of Stanford). While both of these teams can light up a scoreboard, it’s their defenses that got them here. I look for this to resemble more of a Big Ten defensive battle than a Pac-12 shootout. I actually think the total should be closer to 50 than 60.

These are the two best defenses in the Pac-12 statistically. Washington ranks 17th in total defense (328.9 ypg) and are allowing just 17.8 ppg. Colorado is even better. The Buffaloes are 13th in total defense (323.7 ypg) and allowing only 18.7 ppg. That a lone really tells you all you need to know for why there’s value on the UNDER with a total at 58.

The only Pac-12 team that is on par with these two in defensive talent is USC. It just so happens that both teams plays the Trojans this year and both were defensive battles. Colorado lost 17-21 at USC and Washington lost 13-26 at home to the Trojans. Keep in mind that USC is every bit as potent offensively as these two teams.

When you factor in the magnitude of this game and where it's being played, I think it only favors a low-scoring game that much more. It’s anyone’s guess how much the playoff committee is going to value conference championships. Regardless, both of these teams have to feel like they have a shot at getting in with a win. This is a lot of pressure for two programs who aren’t use to being in this spot.

I have a feeling that this total will likely only get lower as we get closer to kickoff. If you like what you see with the UNDER, I recommend getting in on the action now. With that said, I still think there’s great value here at anything over 53 points. Take the UNDER!

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Panthers/Raiders OVER

I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks on Sunday when the Raiders host the Panthers. For starters, these are two very capable offenses. Carolina comes in averaging 24.4 ppg, while the Raiders are scoring 27.2 ppg. On top of that, both defenses have had their struggles this season, the Panthers are giving up 24.6 ppg overall and 30.0 ppg on the road, while Oakland is allowing 24.3 ppg overall and 28.0 ppg at home.

I think there's good reason to believe both defenses won't be at their best. Carolina will be without star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, which is arguably the one player they can't afford to lose on that side of the ball. That's going to open up some running lanes for the Raiders, who also figure to have a big day throwing the ball, as Carolina comes in with the 26th ranked pass defense. As for Oakland's defense, it's one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th overall (24th against the run and 28th against the pass). I also think they come out flat on that side of the ball playing on short rest, along with the travel after playing last week in Mexico on Monday Night Football. 

OVER is 10-2 in the Panthers last 12 against a team with a winning record, 9-1 in their last 10 road games against a bad defensive team that's allowing 350 or more yards/game and 8-1 in their last 9 road games against a strong offensive team that's averaging 24 or more points/game. OVER is also 10-2 in the Raiders last 12 against a strong offensive team that's averaging 24+ points/game. Take the OVER!

5* NCAAF SEC West Total of the Month on Auburn/Alabama UNDER

Last year's Iron Bowl saw just 44 combined points and I think we could see an even bigger offensive struggle this time around. These are two of the best defenses in the country, who are going to lay everything they have on the line in this massive rivalry game.

Alabama comes in 2nd in the country in total defense, giving up just 252.6 ypg and are outstanding against the run, allowing just 68.9 ypg (1st). Auburn is extremely dependent on their running game, as they come in 5th in rushing (297.8 ypg) compared to 109th in passing (175.7 ypg). As good as the Tigers are running the ball, the Crimson Tide have proven they are up to the challenge, completely shutting down some really great running teams this season.

Auburn is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball. The Tigers are 18th in the country in total defense, giving up just 334.5 ypg and are at their best against the run (117.7 ypg). Alabama's offense isn't as explosive in years past and are very dependent on their ability to run the ball with success to put up a lot of points.

UNDER is 6-0 in Alabama's last 6 against strong rushing teams, who average 4.75 or more yards/carry and 10-2 in their last 12 home games against teams who average 230 or more rushing yards/game. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Tide's last 12 home games after 8 or more SU wins and 11-2 in their last 13 after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER!

5* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East Total of the Month on OVER 

While these two only combined for 50 points in the first meeting, it could have been a lot more. There were 10 scoring drives in the game and 5 of those were field goals. They also got 50 with only 7-points scored combined between the two in the 4th quarter. 

There were over 800 yards of total offense with each team finishing with 24 first downs. Keep in mind that was all the way back in Week 2. Dak Prescott was making just his second career start. At the same time, Washington’s offense was no were close to as good as it is at this point in the season.

A key player that wasn’t a factor for the Redskins offense at that time was running back Robert Kelly. He didn’t even have a carry in that contest. Kelly has rushed for 321 yards and 4 scores in Washington’s last 3 games. Having a true threat of a running game really takes this Redskins offense to the next level. Keep in mind they only had 432 rushing yards in their first 5 games of the season. 

While the offense can score with anyone, Washington’s defense is prone to giving up a lot of big plays. The Redskins are ranked 23rd in total defense, giving up 371.3 ypg. Most importantly given this matchup, is their struggles against the run. Washington comes in allowing 112.1 yards/game on the ground.

So while the Cowboys like to work the clock, they figure to have some big plays that result in some quick scores. Ezekiel Elliot was just getting going the last time these two played and he still put up 83 yards on 21 attempts.

I also think there's an extra edge to the offense on both sides, as these two defenses aren't going to be flying around the field playing on short rest. OVER is 14-4 in the Redskins last 18 road games after scoring 35 or more points. It’s also 8-1 in their last 9 after gaining more than 400 yards of total offense. OVER is also 24-11 in the Cowboys last 35 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on Temple/Tulane UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive showdown in Tulane on Saturday. Temple comes into this game off a 21-0 win at Connecticut. A game in which they failed to score a single point in the final 3 quarters of regulation. Not a surprising outcome given that the Huskies are a strong defensive team and very limited offensively.

Tulane is just as bad as UConn offensively, but are much better defensively. The Green Wave come in ranked 112th in the country in total offense, averaging just 353.4 ypg. Almost all of that comes on the ground, as they average 236.4 ypg rushing, compared to 117.0 ypg passing. Hard to imagine them doing much of anything here, as Temple is 7th in the country in total defense, allowing just 291.4 ypg. On top of that, the Owls have had a full two weeks to prepare for this game.

As for the Green Wave defense, you might be surprised to see that they are 23rd in the country in total defense, given they are just 3-7 overall and 0-6 in conference play. They are a balanced defensive attack, ranking 49th against the run and 30th against the pass. Last time out against a dynamic Houston offense, they limited the Cougars to just 30 points and only 287 yards of total offense.

The big key here is that this not a game that Temple can overlook, as they are tied with USF on top the East standings in the AAC at 5-1. Due to beating USF at home, they hold the tiebreaker and if they win out, they are headed to the ACC Championship Game. I also expect a big effort from Tulane, as they desperately want to avoid going winless in conference play, plus there's a little extra motivation here with this being their home finale. Note they have played very well at home against the better teams in the ACC, losing 14-21 to Navy and 14-24 to Memphis. I think we see a very similar type of score here, which has well below the mark in this one. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Month on USC/Washington UNDER

I love the value we are getting with the total in Saturday's highly anticipated Pac-12 showdown between Washington and USC. I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total here due to how well these two offenses have looked of late. Both have scored 40+ in 4 of their last 5 games. However, that's not all that surprising given how few teams in the Pac-12 play defense. I'm not saying these two offenses aren't legit, I just don't think their defenses are getting near the respect they deserve in this one.

Washington comes into this game ranked 18th in the country in total defense and the strength of their stop unit is their secondary, which ranks 13th against the pass, allowing just 181.9 ypg. USC is a respectable 38th in total defense and have allowed more than 27 points just once in their last 8 games. The Huskies haven't allowed more than 28 points all season.

While both offenses are much improved over last year, you can't ignore the fact that these two teams combined for just 29 points in Washington's 17-12 win at USC a year ago. With everything that both of these teams have riding on this game, I expect another hard fought defensive battle.

The UNDER is 10-2 in USC's last 12 road games after scoring 42 or more points in 2 straight games and 20-8 in their last 28 against a team with a winning record. Under is also 11-2 in the Huskies last 13 with a total set at 56.5 to 63 points and 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

5* MNF Total of the Year on Bills/Seahawks UNDER

It’s no secret that Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL. It’s been the case the last few years. They come in ranked 6th in total defense, allowing just 319.4 ypg. They are strong in both phases, ranking 7th against the run and 9th against the pass. They are also 2nd in scoring defense, behind only Minnesota, allowing just 15.9 ppg.

With Seattle playing at home, I think it’s going to be really tough for Buffalo to generate a lot of offense. The Bills had okay numbers offensively against New England, but a lot of that game after the game was out of hand. They are still without their top wide out in Sammy Watkins. They may also be without Marquise Goodwin (questionable), who leads the team with 3 TD catches. It’s also up in the air if LeSean McCoy will play.

On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Seahawks’ offense is going to do a lot here. Seattle is just 23rd in total defense (339.9 ypg) and 29th in scoring (18.7). Only the Rams, Texans and Bears rank worse in points/game. Russell Wilson is not playing well. He’s got a bum leg and a horrible offensive line. The thing is, people are holding on to what they have seen from him and this offense in the past.

Buffalo’s defense didn’t look great last week, but that was against Brady and the Pats. I don’t know that any defense can keep them in check with the way Brady is playing. The Bills front should dominate here against Seattle’s o-line. Keep in mind Buffalo is tied with Denver for the league lead with 26 sacks. Lorenzo Alexander is the main culprit, who has a league-high 9 sacks.

We just saw Seattle play a 6-6 tie two weeks ago against Arizona in a prime time game. I don’t know that it will be that bad, but it’s not out of the question. UNDER is 12-3 in the Bills last 15 as a road dog. It’s also a perfect 5-0 in the Seahawks last 5 games played on Monday Night Football. Take the UNDER!

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Saints/49ers OVER

This line feels like a trap with the Saints only laying 3.5-points off that big win over Seattle. However, I don’t trust the 49ers or like backing bad teams with small spreads. On the bright side, I love the value here on the total and this one going over the mark.

This might seem like a big number with the 49ers involved, given their limitations on offense. San Francisco has scored 21 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games. However, I like this spot for the 49ers offense.

Coming off their bye, SF has had two weeks to get the offense centered more around Kaepernick. On top of that, this is a great matchup. The Saints are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They are 18th against the run (110.7 ypg) and 29th against the pass (286.7 ypg). I think Kaepernick will be able to exploit them for some big plays through the air.

You also can’t overlook how bad a spot this is for the Saints. They are coming off a very physical game against Seattle and have another on deck against the Broncos. It’s going to be hard for them to get up emotionally for a bad team like the 49ers.

I think the lack of focus will come more on the defense than the offense. Drew Brees doesn’t take games off. That’s key here, cause he should have a field day against this 49ers defense.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that San Francisco is 7th against the pass. That’s more of a result of who they have played and their inability to stop the run. The 49ers are dead last against the run, giving up 185.1 ypg. Teams aren’t going to put up huge passing numbers on them when they can run at will. Keep in mind Cam Newton tormented their secondary earlier this season for 353 yards and 4 scores.

It’s also worth pointing out the OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Saints last 7 games against a team with a losing record. The average total score in these 7 games is 64.9 ppg. Look for a lot of points to be scored on Sunday. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on Air Force/Army UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's military showdown between Air Force and Army. While it's not quite the same rivalry as Army/Navy, it's pretty close. Anytime you get two armed forces going against each other, it serious business. However, that's not the main reason I like the UNDER in this one.

It's the fact that we have two teams that are going to run it a lot. Air Force averages 63 rushing attempts a game, compared to just 14 pass attempts. Army keeps it on the ground 62 times a game and attempts just 10 passes on average. The clock is going to be running constantly in this one, which is going to keep possessions at a minimum.

The other big key here is that one of the big advantages that these triple option teams like Army and Air Force have over their competition is the option is not easy to prepare for in the typical 6 days teams have between games. That advantage is thrown out the window in these games, as both of these teams are familiar with the schemes and know how to stop it.

Just look at the recent meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 23 points with a total set at 50. The year before they only combined for 29 with a total of 54.

Another factor here is that Air Force could be without starting quarterback Nate Romine, as he's questionable with a ankle injury. The quarterback is arguably the most important piece in the option. Even if he plays, the Falcons option attack won't be as strong with him not at 100%. If he doesn't, it's only going to make Air Force that much more dependent on the run. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Thursday Night Total Annihilator on OVER

I really like the value here on these two teams going over the total. While the Cyclones only come in averaging 24.0 ppg, this is a great matchup for the ISU offense. The Cyclones have the 47th ranked passing offense in the country at 252.4 ypg. Oklahoma’s defense has been hit hard with injuries and their secondary has struggled. The Sooners rank 126th in the country against the pass, allowing a staggering 314.9 ypg.

Iowa State has thrown for 260 or more yards in 4 of their 8 games. In those 4 games they have topped that mark, they are averaging 35.8 ppg. That includes a 42 point effort against Baylor and 31 point outburst at Oklahoma State.

If the Cyclones can just get to 28 points that should be enough to push this over the total. Oklahoma is averaging a ridiculous 51.4 ppg in conference play. The only team to hold them under 40 points is Kansas State. Keep in mind that the Sooners have scored at least 48 points in each of their last 3 games against the Cyclones. That includes a 59 point outburst in their last trip to Jack Trice.

There’s little reason to believe Iowa State’s defense can keep them in check. The Cyclones rank 107th in the country in total defense, allowing 453 ypg. Note they have already allowed 41 to TCU, 45 to Baylor and 38 to Oklahoma State. The Sooners are without a doubt the best offense they have faced this season.

I think you also have to keep in mind that Oklahoma doesn’t figure to let their foot off the gas. The Sooners are still not completely out of making the playoffs. The only thing they can do at this point is destroy the opposition. They didn’t let their foot off the gas last week against Kansas until they were up 53 points.

OVER is 11-1 in Oklahoma’s last 12 road games. It’s also 16-4 in the Sooners’ last 20 with a total at 70 or more points. Take the OVER!

5* SEC Total of the Year on Georgia/Florida UNDER

I originally leaned towards Georgia and the points, but the more I looked into this, I feel the real value is with the UNDER. One of the big reasons I liked the Bulldogs is I felt they were strong enough defensively to keep Florida's offense in check and getting over a touchdown in a game when neither team figures to score much was great value. However, I'd much rather just take my chances on a low-scoring game and not have to worry about Florida sneaking out a 10-point win on a turnover. 

Florida comes into this game with the 2nd ranked defense in the country and after what we saw last year with this unit, I don't think there's any questioning that it's the real deal. The only game they allowed more than 14 points this season was at Tennessee in which things spiraled out of control in the 2nd half, as they gave up 35 to the Vols after holding them to just 3-points in the first 2 periods. 

Even with that poor showing they come into this game allowing just 3.2 yards/carry against the run and are holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 37.9% completion rate. Georgia's offense is dependent on their ability to run the ball and Florida is going to load the box and not allow them to beat them on the ground. Very similar to last year, when they held the Bulldogs to just 3 points and 69 yards rushing. 

As for Florida's offense, they are limited and have simply taken advantage of some bad defensive teams. The best defense they have faced all year is Vanderbilt, which ranks 62nd in total defense. Every other team they have faced currently ranks 80th or worse in total defense. Note that Florida only scored 13 points on 236 total yards in that game against the Commodores. 

Now they face a Georgia defense that comes in ranked 20th in total defense. The big key here, is the Bulldogs are at their best against the run. They are 17th in the country, allowing just 111.1 ypg and just 3.5 yards/carry. Florida is only averaging 21.7 ppg in 3 games where they rush for 110 or fewer yards and are averaging 39.0 ppg when in 3 games when they rush for 200 or more. Give me the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on W Virginia/Oklahoma St UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers come into this one undefeated and ranked No. 10 in the country and will be getting their biggest test of the year in Oklahoma State, who is 3-1 and still in position to win the Big 12 title. I think the Cowboys are going to take exception to being a home dog against West Virginia and you can count on Boone Pickens Stadium being electric with a Top 10 team coming to town. 

This might not seem like a great under bet give Oklahoma State comes in averaging 41.1 ppg and West Virginia isn't too far behind at 33.0 ppg. However, I don't think either of these offenses are all they are made out to be. West Virginia has played 5 FBS opponents and 4 of those are ranked outside the Top 75 in total defense. The only exception being Kansas State, who they managed just 17 points at home against (only had 3 points going into the 4th quarter). This is also just the second true road game for West Virginia and I think that hurts the offense, especially in this environment. 

Oklahoma State has also benefited from playing some bad defenses to start the year. The Cowboys last 3 games were against Texas, Iowa State and Kansas, who are all ranked 90th or worse in total defense. The two respectable defenses they have faced are Central Michigan and Baylor and they failed to top 30 in both of those games. West Virginia comes in allowing just 17.8 ppg and are really clicking on that side of the ball right now. The past two weeks they held the high-powered offenses of Texas and TCU to a combined 27 points.

Both of these teams have really made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. West Virginia is only allowing a completion percentage of 52.6% on the season and the Cowboys aren't too far behind, allowing just 58.9%. With the wind expected to be blowing around 15-20 mph for most of this game, I think both teams are going to run it a lot. That's going to eat up the clock and cut down on the possessions for both teams.  

UNDER is 17-4 in West Virginia's last 21 conference games, 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are allowing 250 or more passing yards/game and 7-0 in their last 7 as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on C. Michigan/Toledo UNDER

I believe the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to what these offenses have done to this point and not how these two teams stack up against each other. Central Michigan comes comes in averaging 32.3 ppg and Toledo is putting up 43.0 ppg. The betting public is going to see that and think this total should be much closer to 70 than 60. 

The key here is that these are two very capable defensive teams and the offensive numbers for both sides are greatly aided by a some really weak competition they have played. Here's a list of where the Chippewas FBS opponents they have played rank in total defense; 106th, 74th, 107th, 22nd, 88th and 122nd. The team that was 22nd was Western Michigan and Central Michigan scored 10-points in that game. Now lets do the same thing for Toledo; 92nd, 101st, 83rd, 68th and 125th. 

As far as these two defenses are concerned. Central Michigan comes in ranked 31st in total defense, allowing just 351 ypg. Toledo is 37th in total defense, allowing just 360 ypg. Both of these teams are really good against the pass, which should limit the big plays here. Opposing teams are completing just 56.5% of their attempts against the Chippewas and only 51.4% against the Rockets. 

UNDER is 25-11 in Toledo's last 36 games against good offensive teams, who are averaging 425 or more yards/game. It's also 17-5 in their last 22 against a team with a winning record and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 5-0 in Central Michigan's last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL Vegas Insider Top Play on Jets/Cardinals OVER

Arizona’s offense hasn’t produced at the level most expected through their first 4 games. A lot of that has to do with some poor play from starting quarterback Carson Palmer. The thing to keep in mind, is 3 of Palmer’s 4 starts came against some pretty good defenses. Those being the Patriots, Bills and Rams.

The one exception being the Buccaneers and the results were much better. Palmer threw for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns against Tampa Bay and Arizona put up 40 points.

Coming into the season the Jets were perceived to have a great defense. That hasn’t been the case and I don’t see it changing here. New York can’t stop the pass. They rank 31st in the league against the pass, giving up 303 ypg. They are giving up a ridiculous 8.7 yards/pass attempt and opposing QB’s are completing 71.7% of their attempts against them.

They have been especially vulnerable to the deep ball. That’s a major problem against the Cardinals. Arizona loves to throw it deep and have all kinds of weapons in the passing game.

On the flip side of this, I think the Jets offense will help out in one way or another. New York has some weapons and should be able to get their running game going. Arizona ranks just 23rd at stopping the run, giving up 118.2 ypg. That takes some pressure off of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

At the same time, New York is prone to turnovers. Chances are Arizona’s secondary gets a couple big takeaways. As long as they don’t come in the endzone like they did against the Chiefs, it will help push this over the mark.

If I had to put a number on it, I think Arizona has 30+ points in this game. That means we only need around 17 from the Jets to cash this ticket. OVER is 7-1 in the Jets last 8 following a SU loss. The OVER is also 8-3 in the Cardinals last 11 against a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! 

4* SEC Over/Under Total Annihilator on Florida/Missouri UNDER

I believe the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Both Missouri and Florida had last week off, giving them a ton of time to prepare for this game. Last year they combined for just 24 points in a 21-3 Gators win at Missouri. The previous year they combined for 55 points in a 42-13 Tigers win. However, that's about as misleading of a score as you will ever find. Missouri scored 42 points on a mere 119 yards of total offense, as they had a touchdown on kick return, punt return, interception and fumble. I'll take my chances something like that doesn't happen again in this series. 

I know Missouri's gone to a more uptempo offense this year, but it's not really producing against the top teams they have played. Take away their 61 point effort against Eastern Michigan and 79 point outburst against Delaware State and they are averaging just 15.0 ppg in their 3 games against West Virginia, Georgia and LSU. They have been especially bad on the road, scoring just 11 at West Virginia and 7 at LSU. It's no secret that Florida has one of the best defenses in the country and are as tough to score as they come at home (only allowed 14 points at home all season). 

We also know that the Gators offense isn't a juggernaut and can struggle to put points on the scoreboard. We saw it last year and again this season. While Missouri's defense isn't great, they have been missing some key guys on that side of the ball, who are expected to be back this week. Add in the extra time to prepare for the Gators and I look for the Tigers to hold their own. Keep in mind they could give up 30 points and we still could be in good shape, as I don't see the Tigers scoring more than 17. 

It's also worth mentioning that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Missouri's last 7 road games and 33-18 in Florida's last 51 off a non-cover where they won the game outright (beat Vanderbilt 13-6 as a 14-point favorite). Take the UNDER! 

4* Big 10 Over/Under Total Dominator on Nebraska/Indiana UNDER

This total is going to appear way too low for a lot of people, as these aren't exactly two teams you think about as defensive stoppers, especially Indiana. However, I think we are going to see a low-scoring grind it out type of game. 

Indiana comes into this game ranked 39th in the country in total offense, largely due to a passing attack that ranks 26th in the country at 293 ypg. However, if you look closer at the numbers, they have only passed for more than 285 yards once all season. That was a 496 yards performance against Wake Forest. Last week they only had 182 passing yards against Ohio State. Nebraska's got a strong secondary. The Cornhuskers have held 3 of their 5 opponents under 200 yards passing and the most they have allowed is 251. The other big key here with Nebraska's defense is they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and have no reason to be looking ahead with Purdue on deck. 

I just don't think this Indiana offense is as good as people think, but it's also not surprising that they aren't as good on that side of the ball. Indiana lost some serious talent from last year's team in quarterback Nate Sudfield (3,573 yards, 27 TDS) and running back Jordan Howard (1,213 yards, 6.2 yards/carry). The game that really stands out to me is their first game against FIU. They put up 34 points, but 16 of those came from the defense. The same FIU team that gave up 41 to Maryland and 53 to UCF. 

On the flip side of this, I have been impressed with Indiana's defense. For a team that isn't known for playing any defense, they are showing some good signs of changing things around on that side of the ball. They only gave up 383 yards of total offense last week on the road against a very good Ohio State offense. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 52.5% of their passes against them and the run defense has been decent. The key here is they should be able to gear up on the run against Nebraska, who is not a great passing team, plus they should also feed off the energy of the home crowd. 

At the same time, this Nebraska offense isn't anything special. They are only averaging 473 ypg despite playing some really bad defenses in Fresno State, Wyoming, Oregon and Illinois. Note that their opponents on average are allowing 440 ypg (198 ypg on the ground). The only legit defense they have faced is Northwestern and they only scored 24 points. 

I don't think either team gets to 30 points in this game and that should have them struggling to put up 50, which gives us around 7-points of value. Give me the UNDER! 

4* Big 12 Over/Under Total No Brainer on Oklahoma/Kansas St UNDER

A lot of people are going to see this total sitting under 60 points and instantly want to take the OVER. The perception is that Big 12 games are always high-scoring and we have seen Oklahoma play in some really high-scoring games this season. However, I think the value here is with the UNDER. 

Oklahoma's offense has been held in check this year by both Houston and Ohio State. The Sooners scored just 23 against the Cougars and 24 against the Buckeyes. In that game against Houston, they only had 17 points until the final minutes of the 4th when they added a garbage touchdown. While Oklahoma is balanced offensively, I think their passing game is set up by their ability to run the ball. Keep in mind Houston held them to just 70 yards rushing in by far their worst offensive showing of the season. Kansas State can take away the running game. The Wildcats rank 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 80.8 ypg and a mere 2.7 yards/carry. 

The other thing that Kansas State is going to do is try and help their defense by sustaining long-drives offensively. Something I believe they can do against an overrated Oklahoma defense. Let's also not forget the Sooners are in a prime spot for a letdown after finally getting the monkey off their back against rival Texas last week. Not to mention Oklahoma has quite a long list of injured players on the defensive side of the ball. 

Bill Synder has magical powers when it comes to getting his team to play above expectations when they are a big underdog. I really like the team he has here. I don't hate taking the points with K-State, but I do have some concerns with their offense being able to produce enough points. They are ranked 112th in the country in total offense with zero threat of a passing attack. I would much rather rely on their defense keeping this a low-scoring game than hoping the offense can score late to keep it within the number. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Navy/Air Force UNDER

This total is going to have some people shaking their heads. Navy comes into this game averaging 33.7 ppg and Air Force is even better at 37.3 ppg, yet we have a total here under 50. It has everything to do with the style of play for these two teams. Both run an option oriented offense that is difficult for most other teams to prepare for, especially on a normal week of preparation. That advantage of the defense not knowing how to defend the option is lost in this matchup, as these two teams practice against it all year long.

To no surprise, we have consistently seen the books miss the mark on the total when these two teams play. In fact, each of the last 4 and 8 of the last 10 have gone UNDER the mark. Last year they combined for 44 points with Navy doing the heavy lifting in a 33-11 win. The thing to keep in mind, is the Midshipmen aren't nearly as explosive on offense this year after losing the best option quarterback to ever go through their program in Keenan Reynolds. In fact, Navy only had 1 returning starter on offense (did bring back 7 on defense). 

Not only do these two teams know how to stop the option, both come in with a pretty strong defense. Navy is only giving up 18.0 ppg and Air Force is allowing just 18.3 ppg. The other big key here is that due to both teams running on almost every play, the clock is constantly moving. That limits the possessions for both teams and really makes it tough for them to put up a lot of points. At the same time, we don't have to worry about either side throwing interceptions that can lead to quick scores. 

UNDER is 11-1 in Air Force's last 12 home games after outrushing each of their last 2 opponents by 125 or more yards and 25-9 in Navy's last 34 against excellent ball control teams, who average 32 or more minutes of possession per game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Wisconsin/Michigan St UNDER

It's not very often we see these low totals in today's college football, but it's for good reason in Saturday's Big Ten showdown between No. 11 Wisconsin and No. 8 Michigan State. Both of these teams are really good on the defensive side of the ball and have offenses built around running the football and controlling the time of possession to keep their defenses fresh. 

This one has a defensive battle written all over it, as I could easily see this being a 17-13 type of game. I know Michigan State put up 38 points last week against what most people perceived to be a very good Notre Dame team, but that Irish defense is not very good and had already given up a huge number to Texas. The Spartans also benefited in that game from 3 Notre Dame turnovers, two scoring drives of less than 40 yards. 

They simply aren't going to be able to move the ball with that kind of success against the Badgers. Wisconsin held LSU to just 14 points and 257 yards of total offense in their opener. The next week they held Akron to 10 points and 224 yards. Their last game against Georgia State, saw them allow 17 points but only 299 total yards. That's with an offense that has struggled to stay on the field. They matchup well with Michigan State, as the Spartans strenght is their running game and that's what Wisconsin's defense is built to stop. Almost no one is giving Wisconsin a chance in this game, which only adds more fuel to the fire for this Badgers defense. 

Michigan State's offense won't be the only ones struggling. The Spartans are alway strong defensively under Dantonio and this year looks to be no different. They really did a number on the Irish last week. I know Note Dame put up 28 points, but 21 of those came after the Spartans built up a comfortable 36-7 lead. Wisconsin is playing a backup quarterback and without their best player in running back Corey Clement. They are going to try and grind out the clock and play it safe on offense with a lot of runs and hope the defense gives them a chance to win this game late.

UNDER is 8-0 in the Badgers last 8 after 2 straight games where they held 34 or more minutes of possession and 24 or more first downs. It's also 6-0 in their last 6 after playing their last two games at home, 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is 7-3 in the Spartans last 10 after they played a game with 450 or more total yards. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Seahawks/Rams OVER

This is going to come as a surprise to a lot of people, as your natural instinct is going to say the OVER is a bad play given what we just in Week 1. That's exactly where people get into trouble. You don't want to overreact to the first game of the season. I think we are catching a great number here to load up on the OVER.

I know the Rams offense couldn't have looked much worse against the 49ers on Monday Night Football, but no NFL team is going to be that bad on offense with a talent like Todd Gurley at running back. I'm not saying this offense is going to light up the scoreboard the rest of the season, but they will be a lot better than what we saw in Week 1. 

You also have to keep in mind that the majority of NFL teams play much better offensively at home than on the road. Not only is this game at home, but it's the first game in LA in over 20 years. I expect some big plays to take place and for Fisher to open up the playbook after keeping things pretty simple against San Francisco. 

Seattle's offense didn't look much better in their opener, as they scored just 12 points at home and that was with them scoring a touchdown late to take the lead. I think a lot of that had to do with Miami's defense being better than people realize. Keep in mind that after their bye week last year they put up at least 29 points in 7 of their last 8 games in the regular season. The Rams defense gets a lot of love because of all the 1st round picks they have in the front 7, but it's not all it's made out to be. The secondary is one of the worst in the league talent wise and I think Wilson is going to pick them apart. 

Keep in mind that these two teams played twice last year and both games finished with more than the total we have here. They combined for 65 in St Louis and 40 in Seattle. We also see that the OVER is 38-11 (78%) in the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 35.5 to 42 where you have a team (Seattle) that averaged more than 24 points/game. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Month on Colorado/Michigan UNDER

While I think there's some value here with Colorado catching all those points, I believe the real value is on the total and this one going under the mark set by the books. Everyone knows that Michigan is a great defensive team, but you might be surprised to learn it's Colorado who leads the country in total defense, allowing a mere 160.5 yards/game. In comparison, Michigan is giving up 281 ypg. 

Now I know the Buffaloes haven't had a tough first two opponents, but what they did against in-state rival Colorado State in the opener really stands out to me. That game was played on a neutral site and Colorado held them to 225 yards and just 7 points. They also forced 4 turnovers. Note that Colorado State put up 500 yards on them last year and returned 6 starters this season, including starting quarterback Nick Stevens. Coming into the season this looked like the Buffaloes best defense (9 returning starters) in years and it certainly appears to be the case. 

I know Michigan's offense has looked good in their first two games, but a lot of that has to do with the competition. They put up 63 on a Hawaii team that just played the previous week in Australia and 51 on a UCF team that didn't win a single game last year. 

I think points are going to be tough to come by for both teams and each is going to have to work to move the ball down the field. Keep in mind that for this game to go over the total of 56, these two have to average more than two touchdowns (14.0 points) per quarter. I just don't see that happening. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Seahawks/Panthers UNDER

These two teams combined for 50 points in the Panthers 27-23 win at Seattle back in Week 6, which I believe has resulted in an inflated total for their rematch in Sunday's Divisional Round showdown. Keep in mind that was a 23-14 game in favor of the Seahawks with less than 4 minutes to play before the Panthers scored two late touchdowns. 

A few things to keep in mind with that game is the Seahawks offense only managed 14 first downs against the Panthers defense and struggled to convert in the red zone. Seattle had to settle for 3 field goals in 5 attempts. It's also important to note that most of their offensive came from tight end Jimmy Graham, who had 8 receptions for 140 yards (only had 334 total yards on the game). Graham is no longer available and the Panthers' Josh Norman should be able to limit Doug Baldwin, as he's really their only legit threat on the outside.

As for Carolina's offense, the biggest thing that you have to remember with that first meeting, is the fact that Seattle's star linebacker Bobby Wagner didn't play. His absence forced K.J. Wright to middle linebacker and Kevin Pierre-Louis to Wagner's weak-side spot. His first and only start at weak-side linebacker. One of Wagner's primary responsibilities is to cover tight ends and no surprise that Panthers' tight end exploited his absence with 7 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Olson will be less of a factor this time around and in turn I think the Panthers offense really struggles to generate points. 

With all the factors that played into the high-scoring game the first time around, I'm confident that was more of an outlier and we can expect to see a similar type game to the previous matchups in Carolina. In 2013 Seattle won 13-9 at Carolina and by a similar 12-7 score on the road in 2013. 

UNDER is 8-0 in the Seahawks last 8 after allowing 200 total yards or less in their last game, 7-0 in their last 7 when revenging a loss of 7 points or less and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Panthers last 5 off a SU win by more than 14 points. All this combined forms a 24-0 (100%) system. Take the UNDER!  

5* AFC Divisional Round Total No Brainer on Chiefs/Pats UNDER

The perception here of the public is that the Patriots are going to go right back to being an elite offensive team with all their weapons returning from injury and that the Chiefs will be able to muster up 20+ points on New England's defense to send this game flying over the total. I don't think either of those things are going to happen. 

This game has the makings of a defensive battle right from the start. Kansas City's defense is arguably playing as well as anyone in the league right now. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 22 points in a game since Week 4 and only twice have they allowed 20 or more during this stretch. Their strength matches up well with what the Patriots want to do offensively.

Kansas City has the 9th ranked pass defense, allowing just 231.1 ypg. They have outstanding corners and safeties, as well as one of the best pass rushes in the league. While New England will have their weapons on the outside, the Chiefs should be able to exploit their offensive line. The Patriots also lack a threat of a running game with all the injuries they have sustained at the position. This only makes it that much easier on the Kansas City secondary, as they don't have to worry about the run. 

On the flip side of this, the Chiefs don't exactly have a great offense and could be in serious trouble if leading wide out Jeremy Maclin isn't able to play. New England's defense is better than they get credit for and should be close to full strength for this game. The Patriots strength defensively is against the run, which is critical against the Chiefs. I look for Kansas City to be in a lot of 3rd and long situations, which they aren't good at completing. Chiefs are also not a strong red-zone team, which only adds more value to the under. 

It's also important to note that while it won't be freezing cold outside (temperatures expected in the low 40's) the forecast right now is calling for 100% chance of rain. I believe this will cause both teams to be a little more cautious with the football and could play into the kicking game. 

The Patriots closed out the regular season with back-to-back losses against division rivals. The UNDER is 11-1 in New England's last 12 in this spot. UNDER is also 9-2 in the 2nd half and playoffs in the Chiefs last 11 against strong passing teams that average 235 or more yards/game, as well as 15-5 in their last 20 road games against teams averaging 27 or more points/game.  Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jaguars/Saints OVER

I don't think the books can set the total high enough in Saints games, especially when they are playing at home. The same could be said for Jacksonville when they are playing on the road. New Orleans is scoring 31.6 ppg at home, while allowing 32.3 ppg. The Jaguars are scoring 25.6 ppg on the road while allowing 32.3 ppg. 

With both of these teams out of the playoff picture and just simply playing out the season at this point, I don't expect either team to be all that interested in playing much defense in this one. Both of these teams feature strong passing attacks. Jacksonville ranks 12th at 256.6 ypg and the Saints lead the league at 303.2 ypg. Both will be going up against a couple of defenses that have really struggled to through the air. New Orleans ranks 30th against the pass, giving up 276.4 ypg and the Jaguars are 25th, allowing 260.5 ypg. Look for a lot of big plays and quick scores, which should have this one flying over the total. 

OVER is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 against a team with a losing record, 4-0-1 in their last 5 at home and a perfect 7-0 in the Jaguars last 7 road games against a team from the NFC. Take the OVER! 

4* Cinc/San Diego St Hawaii Bowl Total Annihilator on OVER

San Diego State allowed 24 or fewer points over their 9-game conference winning streak to close out the year, but they didn't have to face Boise State and  if you watched the Mountain West you know there's a lot of bad offensive teams. The thing that stands out to me is how the Aztecs defense performed in non-conference play, allowing 35 points to Cal, 34 to South Alabama and 37 to Penn State. I think San Diego State's defensive run has created some huge value here with the OVER. 

Cincinnati comes in with the 26th ranked scoring offense (36.1 ppg) and are 4th in the country in passing at 373.1 ypg. This will be the best passing attack the Aztecs have seen since non-conference and keep in mind that the opposing quarterbacks San Diego State has played this year only averaged a 55.8% completion rate and 200 ypg. Cincinnati's quarterbacks completed 62.4% of their attempts with a strong 8.7 yards per pass attempt. I know the Bearcats will be without starting quarterback Gunner Keil, but backup Hayden Moore has played in several games and shown he's more than capable of putting up big numbers, including a 557 yard and 4 touchdown performance against Memphis. 

On the flip side of this, Cincinnati doesn't have a great defense. The Bearcats ranked 81st in total defense, allowing 414.6 ypg. They were especially bad against the run, which they finished 83rd against, giving up 190.3 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry. That's good news for the Aztecs, who come in with the 14th ranked rushing attack at 235.3 ypg. 

I look for teams to provide plenty of fireworks offensively and most importantly some quick scores with the Bearcats striking through the air and the Aztecs on the ground. Also don't be surprised if Cincinnati doesn't have a few big turnovers that result in easy scores for San Diego State. OVER is 4-1 in the Bearcats last 5 bowl games, 7-1 in their last 8 games in December and 11-4 in their last 15 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* GoDaddy Bowl Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

We know Bowling Green is going to put up points, as they average 43.4 ppg and have scored no fewer than 28 points in a game all season The biggest key here is whether or not Georgia Southern can run the football against the Falcons, as the Eagles offer little to no threat of a passing attack. I believe they will be able to have success on the ground and the line here backs that up. If the oddsmakers didn't think Georgia Southern was going to be able to run the ball, this line would be a lot more, as the Eagles simply wouldn't be able to score enough to keep it close. 

Bowling Green gave up 4.0 yards/carry and 162 ypg on the ground this season and they didn't exactly face the best rushing attacks in the MAC. What I like, is we have seen the Falcons give up big numbers on the ground. They allowed 399 rushing yards to Tennessee, 299 yards to Ohio, 205 to Western Michigan and 198 to Toledo. None of those teams have as strong as a rushing attack as the Eagles, who finished the year with the nation's top ranked rushing attack at 355.6 ypg. 

Keep in mind Georgia Southern put up 233 rushing yards on the road against Georgia and 413 against Western Michigan out of the MAC. When the Eagles have rushed for 250 or more yards this season, they have scored a minimum of 37 points. 

Another bonus factor here is both of these teams saw their head coach leave to take on a bigger and better job in the time leading up to this game. That only hurts the preparation and given the talent these two have on offense, I believe it will hurt the most on the play defensively. 

OVER is 30-10 (75%) since 1992 in non-conference games with a total of 63.5 to 70 where you have a team (Georgia Southern) that has been beat by the spread by 21 or more combined points in their last 3 games. Take the OVER! 

5* New Orleans Bowl Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER 

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fire works in Saturday's New Orleans Bowl between Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in 2015, as the Redwolves averaged 41.0 ppg on 448 ypg and the Bulldogs put up 36.7 ppg on 465 ypg. At the same time, both of these defenses struggled, especially away from home. Arkansas State allowed 33.2 ppg on the road and Louisiana Tech allowed 31.3 ppg. 

The big key here is making sure that a team like Arkansas State, from a weaker conference, can have success against the likes of Louisiana Tech. I believe they can and will. The Redwolves have been an offensive juggernaut down the stretch. They scored 50+ in each of their last 3 games and put up 40 on an Appalachian State defense that finished the year ranked 12th in the country in total defense.

While running the football is their strength, Arkansas State has a more than capable quarterback in senior Fredi Knighten, who threw for 17 touchdowns in his last 7 games. Knighten should be able to exploit a Louisiana Tech defense that finished 107th against the pass (265.8 ypg) and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.2% of their attempts. 

Louisiana Tech should also have a field day offensively. The Bulldogs posted the 15th ranked passing attack in the country at 311.9 ypg and will be going up against a Arkansas State defense that finished 91st against the pass. While the Redwolves have the talent offensively to take on the Bulldogs, they don't have the talent defensively.

OVER is 6-0 in Arkansas State's last 6 after scoring 31 or more points in 4 straight games, 7-0 in their last 7 after playing 3 straight games where 60 or more combined points were scored and 6-0 in their last 6 off 3 or more straight up wins. OVER is also 6-0 in the Redwolves last 6 against teams who allowing opponents to complete 58% or more of their pass attempts and 10-0 in their last 10 against opponents who complete 58% or more of their pass attempts. Add it up and we have a perfect 35-0 system in play on this one to eclipse the mark. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raiders/Broncos UNDER

These two teams combined for just 26 points back in Week 5 at Oakland and that was with the Broncos scoring 7-points on an interception returned for a touchdown. Both teams finished with less than 300 total yards off offense. I'm expecting another defensive showdown in Denver in the rematch. 

The Broncos just aren't an explosive offensive team and outside of a 17-point 4th quarter against the Patriots, they really haven't done much. They have scored just 34 points in the 11 other quarters over their last 3 games. Even if you factor in the big quarter against the Patriots, that's only 4.25 points/quarter during this stretch. It's pretty clear the Broncos want to win with their defense and I don't expect this division matchup to be any different. 

You also have to take into account that the Raiders are not playing well offensively right now. Oakland has scored 20 or less in 3 of their last 4 games and the only exception came against the Titans where they had 24. 

The Raiders gave up 34 points to the Chiefs last week, but that's a misleading number. Kansas City was gifted 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter off interceptions. Two the offense punched in from 13 yards or less and the other was taken all the way back for a score. On the game the Chiefs only had 232 yards of total offense and 15 first downs. I expect the Raiders to give everything they have defensively against a hated rival in a must-win situation. 

UNDER is 27-13 in the Raiders last 40 off a home loss by 10 or more points and 19-4 in their last 23 road games off a home loss to a division opponent. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Broncos last 6 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 in the month of December. Take the UNDER! 

5* Ravens/Browns MNF Total No Brainer on OVER

We are seeing some exceptional value here with the total, due to the fact that these two teams struggled offensively in their last game. Baltimore managed just 16 points at home against the Rams and Cleveland scored just 9 points at Pittsburgh, which was their 3rd time in their last 4 games scoring 10 or less. 

The key here is that Cleveland's struggles offensively were a result of the team giving Jonny Manziel a shot to show what he can do. However, Manziel has been relegated to 3rd string and Josh McCown gets the start. McCown torched a bad Baltimore secondary for 457 yards on 36 of 51 passing earlier this season in a 33-30 win. I look for McCown to have another big game here against a Ravens team that doesn't have anything left to play for. 

We are also seeing a low total here due to the Ravens losing both Flacco and Forsett in last week's win against the Rams. However, Baltimore has a more than capable backup quarterback in Matt Schaub and I think people are sleeping on backup running back Javorius Allen, who had 67 yards on 22 carries against a very good St Louis front last week. Cleveland is also horrible defensively. The Browns have allowed 30+ in 3 straight games and are giving up 27.7 ppg on the season. 

OVER is 5-0 in the Ravens last 5 after allowing less than 150 yards passing, 4-0 in the Browns last 4 home games and 7-3 in their last 10 overall. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conf Total of the Month on Georgia/Georgia Southern OVER

I think the books have set the total way too low for this matchup. The perception is Georgia Southern, a team from the lowly Sun Belt Conference, won't be able to provide much offense against a SEC power like Georgia, who is coming off back-to-back strong defensive games where they held Kentucky to 3 points and Auburn to 13. 

The key here is that the Bulldogs aren't going to come out with the same intensity on defense against the Eagles as they would a conference opponent, especially with Georgia not really having a whole lot to play for right now at 7-3. I actually think this is a big letdown spot for the Bulldogs, as they have a huge revenge game on deck against in-state rival Georgia Tech. 

The other factor here is Georgia Southern brings a potent offense into Athens. The Eagles are averaging 37.4 ppg and have topped 43 points in 6 of their 9 games. Georgia Southern also runs an option based offense that is hard to prepare for, especially for a team like Georgia that doesn't see the option often. 

Defensively the Eagles aren't anything to write home about and Georgia's offensive line should be able to overpower them at the line of scrimmage. I look for a lot of big plays here from the Bulldogs, which will lead to quick scores. Keep in mind Georgia Southern gave up 44 points on 544 yards of total offense against West Virginia, who is not as talented offensively as Georgia. I see the Bulldogs scoring close to 40 with the Eagles in the mid to upper 20's. 

OVER is 8-1 in the Bulldogs last 9 games after playing a game where they didn't commit a turnover and 6-0 in their last 6 after a game where they had a turnover margin of +2 or better. OVER is also 7-0 in Georgia's last 7 against the Sun Belt, 7-0 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Eagles last 6 non-conference games. Take the OVER! 

4* Titans/Jaguars TNF Total Annihilator on OVER

I didn't see any real value with the spread, but I do think there's some great value here with this AFC South showdown going OVER the total. The OVER is 3-1 in the Titans 4 road games this season and 6-3 in the Jaguars 9 games overall. 

Both of these teams are led by young quarterbacks who have shown flashes of being legit NFL signal callers. The key here is that both should be able to produce at a high level tonight. Jacksonville's defense isn't very good. They come in allowing 28.3 ppg and lost arguably their best defensive player for the season in last week's win against the Ravens in defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks.

The Titans have played well defensively, but this is a bad spot for them, playing on the road with a short week of rest and coming off a very physical game against the Panthers. Adding to this is the fact that the Jaguars have quietly scored at least 20 points in 5 straight games and that includes games against quality defensive teams like the Bills and Jets. 

Another factor here that favors the OVER is the fact that neither of these teams are very good at running the football, which means we shouldn't see any of those long-possessions that eat up the clock. Tennessee is 23rd in the league in rushing at 97.4 ypg and Jacksonville is 24th at 96.0 ypg. 

We should also see a fair number of turnovers in this game an as long as they don't come in the red zone (chance I'm willing to take), it should lead to some quick scores. Keep in mind with this total we only need slightly more than 10-points a quarter. 

OVER is 6-2 in the Jaguars last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 7-3 in their last 10 following a SU win. OVER is also 7-3-1 in the Titans last 11 off a double-digit loss at home, 5-2 in their last 7 on the road and 13-6 in their last 19 after scoring 14 or less in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Chiefs/Broncos OVER

The perception here is this will be a low-scoring game, but I think there's going to be more than enough offense to push this past the total. The Chiefs went into their bye off two strong offensive games, scoring 23 at home against the Steelers and 45 in London against the Lions. They had 24 against Denver at home back in Week 2 and could have easily scored more if it wasn't for some poor play calling and turnovers. 

I look for the Chiefs to come out of their bye with a strong game plan here against the Broncos defense. Denver gave up 27 on the road last week to the Colts and will be missing two key pieces on the defensive side of the ball with Talib suspended and DeMarcus Ware not expected to play with a back injury. 

Denver's offense isn't putting up points like they use to, but they are still a strong offensive team. The Broncos have scored at least 23 points in 6 of their last 7 games. Denver has also scored at least 24 against the Chiefs in 6 straight meetings. Kansas City's defense has looked in their last two games, but that was against the Steelers with Jones at quarterback and the Lions, who are a complete mess. 

OVER is 16-4 in the Broncos last 20 after rushing for 50 or less yards, 26-12 in their last 38 off a loss by 3 or less and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a road loss. OVER is also 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 off a SU win. Take OVER! 

4* Temple/SMU Total No Brainer on OVER

The Owls got all kinds of media hype last week leading up to their showdown at home against Notre Dame, which was the location of Game Day. A lot of the talk was about how good their defense was and they didn't disappoint, holding the Irish to just 24 points in near upset. 

I believe that hype has resulted in a much lower total than what we should be seeing in this matchup. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Owls, going on the road with a short week of rest against a SMU team that is sitting at 1-7 with a 6-game losing streak. Temple will struggle to bring anywhere close to the intensity they had last week against Notre Dame, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I look for SMU to take advantage and put up a decent number offensively. The Mustangs are are a strong offensive team, averaging 28.7 ppg on 414 ypg. They have the 43rd ranked passing attack at 253.1 ypg and should be able to create some big plays through the air against Temple's 69th ranked passing attack (226.3 ypg). 

The big key here is that regardless if the Owls are 100% focused or not, they aren't going to have much trouble putting up points against this SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 119th against the run (259.0 ypg) and 104th against the pass (265.4 ypg). They have allowed at least 38 points in each of their last 6 games. If temple simply scores 38, we only need SMU to score 14 points to eclipse this total. 

OVER is 10-1 in Temple's last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their last game, 6-0 in SMU's last 6 off a conference home loss and 6-0 in the Mustangs last 6 after failing to cover in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! 

5* MNF Over/Under Total Annihilator Top Play on OVER

After taking a look look at this matchup, I think the value here is with the total to go OVER. I think we are going to see both teams have some success offensively in this one. Carolina is perceived to be a poor offensive team that relies on their defense, but the Panthers have scored at least 24 points in each of their last 5 games. The Colts offense hasn't been as good as previous years, but they are trending in the right direction with at least 21 points in each of their last 3. 

Cam Newton and the Panthers offense should have no problems generating offense against a poor Colts defense that ranks 31st in the league in total defense, allowing 408.6 ypg. Indianapolis has been equally bad against the run (122.7 ypg, 22nd) as they have against the pass (285.9 ypg, 29th). Carolina owns the leagues best rushing attack (144.7 ypg), so they clearly are going to have success on the ground, which should open up some big plays in the passing game with play action. 

Luck and the Colts have shown that even if they struggle early in games, they eventually figure it out and put up some points in the 2nd half, so we are still in good shape if the Panthers get out to an early lead. Luck has also been prone to making bad throws that lead to interceptions, so don't be surprised if Carolina's offense gets some quick easy points off turnovers. 

While the Panthers actually rank higher against the pass than they do against the run, I think a lot of that has do with their schedule. They haven't exactly faced any good passing teams with their 5 games coming agains the Jaguars, Texans, Saints, Bucs, Seahawks and Eagles. Keep in mind Mallet was starting for Houston when they played and Drew Brees was sideline with an injury when they took on New Orleans. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Luck put up some big numbers here. 

OVER is 21-7 in the Colts last 28 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses, 20-8 in their last 28 road games off a loss by 6 points or less and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off 2 straight home losses. Take the OVER! 

5* AFC Total of the Month on Raiders/Chargers OVER

The books have set this total way to low for this AFC West matchup, as both of these offenses should have no problem moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard. Oakland comes in allowing 24.8 ppg, while the Chargers are giving up 26.8 ppg.

The key here is how both teams matchup offensively against the opposing defenses. San Diego has the leagues top-ranked passing attack at 346.3 ypg and will be going up against the Raiders 31st ranked pass defense (299.2 ypg). Oakland's stop unit is allowing opposing quarterbacks to completed 65.5% of their attempts with an average of 7.3 yards/attempt.

While the Raiders don't have great overall numbers, this is a much-improved offense in 2015. Oakland has a talented young quarterback in David Carr, who is showing some promise with his two new weapons on the outside in Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper. Carr and the Raiders have the 15th ranked passing attack. While they rank just 27th in the league in rushing, Oakland has a promising young back in Murray and he should be able to exploit San Diego's 27th ranked run defense (132.5 ypg), which is giving up a staggering 5.4 yards/carry against teams that average just 4.1.

OVER is 8-1 in the Raiders last 9 after rushing for less than 100 yards in 2 straight games and Oakland head coach Del Rio has seen the OVER go 18-6 in his last 24 games as a head coach when listed as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. OVER is also 6-2 in San Diego's last 8 after allowing 350 or more total yards and 7-1-1 in the Raiders last 9 versus a team with a losing record. Take the OVER!

3* NFL Afternoon Over/Under Total Annihilator on Chargers/Packers OVER

The books have set a high total here and for good reason. I look for Green Bay and San Diego to have no problem eclipsing this mark. For starters, we have an elite quarterback in Aaron Rodgers on side and top tier quarterback in Philip Rivers on the other. Both of these two know how to get their offenses into the endzone.

Green Bay hasn't put up great offensive numbers the last two weeks, scoring just 17 at San Francisco and 24 at home against the Rams, but I don't see that carrying over against the Chargers. San Diego's inability to stop the run is going to up the offense even more for Rodgers and the Packers should push 30 points at home in this one.

The key here is that I expect Rivers and Chargers to be scoring right alongside Green Bay, as I see this being a back and forth game that isn't decided until late in the 4th quarter. Green Bay's defense was extremely fortunate to only give up 10 points last week, as the Rams last 5 drives all went into Packers territory and they came away with 0 points. I look for the Chargers to be in that 27-31 range, which should be more than enough to push this over the total.

OVER is 19-4 in the Packers last 23 after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, 21-9 in their last 30 of 2 straight wins by 14 or more points, 11-2 in their last 13 off 4 straight wins by 10 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing less than 15 points. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on Oklahoma/K-State OVER

These two teams combined for 61 points in last year's 31-30 Kansas State upset win at Oklahoma. It was the 6th time in the last 7 meetings where these two teams eclipsed the total set by the books. Some of the highest scoring games during this stretch have come when the two teams play in Manhattan. The combined score of the last 3 games between these two teams at Kansas State are 72, 75 and 93. I feel like the books have set a drastically low total here due to Oklahoma only scoring 17 points last week against a Texas defense that isn't considered to be very good.

The thing you have to keep in mind with the Sooners game last week against the Longhorns is that's  huge rivalry game, so there's going to be max effort defensively, especially from the underdog. It was clear the Longhorns wanted that game more. Coming off that ugly showing offensively, Oklahoma is going to be extremely motivated to score early an often here against the Wildcats. Keep in mind the Sooners had scored at least 31 points in each of their previous 4 games and after only gaining 278 total yards against Texas are still ranked 22nd in the country in total offense at 473.0 ypg.

Kansas State looks like the perfect team for Oklahoma to get their offense back on track. The Wildcats have allowed 33 to Louisiana Tech, 36 to Oklahoma State and 52 to TCU (Horned Frogs only had 17 points at the half) in their last 3 games. Kansas State's defense ranks 110th in the country against the pass (290.6 ypg), while Oklahoma has the 14th ranked passing offense (328.8 ypg), so the Sooners will be able to play to their strength and that should lead to a lot of big plays.

I also expect the Wildcats to do their fair share of scoring in this one, whether it comes early or late when the game is out of hand (Snyder teams don't quit). Kansas State has scored at least 30 points in every game and that includes 34 on the road against a solid Oklahoma State defense. The Wildcats strength offensively is their ground attack, which is averaging 180.2 ypg. The Sooners are 91st in the country against the run (190.4 ypg), so K-States offense should be able to play to their strength as well.

OVER is 13-3 in Kansas State's last 16 games after playing in a contest where 80 or more combined points were scored, 14-2 in their last 16 after being outgained by 175+ yards and 7-2 in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. OVER is also 10-3-1 in Oklahoma's last 14 conference games, 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 following a loss. Take the OVER!

3* UCLA/Stanford Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

Since opening the season with a 6-point effort on the road against Northwestern, the Cardinal’s offense is averaging 42.3 ppg over their last 4 contests. They have played some easy competition in 3 of those 4 games, but the 41 points they hung at USC is a strong indicator that this offense is for real.

Either way, Stanford should have no problem moving the ball here against a depleted UCLA defense that is without 3 of their best players in linebacker Myles Jack, defensive linemen Eddie Vanderdoes and corner Fabian Moreau. While the Cardinals offense ranks in the top 50 in both rushing (209.8 ypg, 27th) and passing (242.8 ypg, 49th), their success relies on their ability to get the running game going (only 85 yards rushing in loss to Northwestern). UCLA’s run defense has given up 353 yards to Arizona and 192 to Arizona State in their last 2 games. Last year the Cardinal put up 202 yards on the ground and I just don’t see the Bruins having an answer here for Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey.

On the flip side of this, I think the UCLA offense is going to be able to move the ball and score their fair share of points in this one. Stanford’s defense is strong, but it’s not dominant. The only offense they have faced close to what UCLA brings to the table is USC and they gave up 427 yards and 31 points to the Trojans. They also allowed 330 yards to Northwestern, with 225 of those coming on the ground and over 300 yards to both Oregon State and Arizona. UCLA’s offense ranks 31st in the country at 454 ypg and are well balanced with 199.4 ypg on the ground (37th) and 254.6 ypg through the air (38th).

I believe the fact that UCLA has seen 4 of their 5 games go under the total and Stanford being perceived to be better defensively than they actually are, this total has been set a little lower than it should be. Both offenses are loaded with playmakers and are going to be able to keep the opposing defenses off balance with their ability to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. I could see both of these scoring into the 30’s with a similar type score to what we saw when Stanford played USC, which only had a total of 50.5 and the two combined for 72. Take the OVER!

5* MNF Over/Under Total No Brainer on OVER

As good as Seattle's defense looked last week in their 26-0 win at home over the Bears, that's not really say much. Chicago was starting a backup quarterback and are one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Detroit also comes in off a low-scoring game, as they lost 12-24 at home to the Broncos.

Typically the books would inflate the total in a prime time game, but I don't think that's the case here given the matchup and location of this one. I believe there's some great value here with the OVER. The Lions offense hasn't looked very good in their first 3 games, but Golden Tate has made it clear he believes opposing teams have known what the Lions were running. I look for Detroit to mix it up and start putting up some points.

One of the things I like here, is the Lions have Calvin Johnson against a strict man-to man scheme on the outside. I look for Johnson to make some big plays down the field and be a difference maker in this one. Seattle usually just hands the ball off to Marshawn Lynch to wear down opposing defenses, but he's not expected to suit up with a hamstring injury. This will force Seattle to throw a little more than normal and I look for Russell Wilson to deliver a big time performance at home.

OVER is 10-3 in the Lions last 13 following a double-digit loss at home, 50-29 in Seattle's last 79 games against a team that's allowing 5.65 or more yards/play and a perfect 4-0 in the Seahawks Last 4 following a SU win. Take the OVER!

5* Thursday Night Football Total No Brainer on UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with this inflated total for a prime time game. These two NFC East rivals have seen 4 of their last 5 meetings end with 41 or fewer points and I think we are going to see a low-scoring affair in this one. 

The Giants have managed a respectable 26 and 20 points in their first two games, but that's come against a couple of bad defenses in Dallas and Atlanta. New York only had 289 yards in their opener against the Cowboys and have not been able to get their running game going. The Giants have totaled just 99 and 97 yards on the ground. This offense is really missing Victor Cruz as they just don't have much for weapons outside of Odel Beckham right now.

With the Giants not expecting to have left tackle Ereck Flowers, I look for Washington's underrated defense to make life miserable for Manning and the New York offense. Not a lot of people realize the Redskins rank 1st in total defense after the first two weeks of the season, giving up just 234.5 ypg. A big reason for that is their pass defense, which held Ryan Tannehill to 182 yards on 22 of 34 passing and Nick Foles to 146 yards on 17 of 32 passing.

While the defense has been great, the Redskins offense has been pretty average with almost all their success coming on the ground. Washington's 379 passing yards are only ahead of the Browns, Bucs, Panthers and Vikings right now. Clearly this team wants to run the football and so far the Giants have been pretty good at stopping it. They held the Cowboys to 80 yards on 23 attempts and the Falcons to 56 on 22 carries. Even if the Redskins have some success on the ground, it's going to eat up the clock and likely lead to field goals instead of touchdowns when they get into New York territory.

I think the situation here calls for both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and with this figuring to be a close game, neither team will abandon the run. I have this somewhere in the 35-38 point range with a likely score of 20-17. Take the UNDER!

4* NFL Afternoon Total Annihilator on Ravens/Raiders OVER

I think there's going to be a lot more points scored in this matchup than what most think. Baltimore wasn't able to get anything going offensively in their 13-19 opening week loss at Denver. That won't be the case in Week 2 against the Raiders. Oakland allowed Cincinnati to put up 33 points and 396 yards of total offense. It would have been even worse if the Bengals didn't call off the dogs in the 2nd half.

I look for Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense to have no problem putting up a big number here. Keep in mind Baltimore ranked 12th in total offense and 8th in scoring offense last year. They simply went up against one of the best defenses in Denver on the road in their first game. Keep in mind that the Raiders lost starting safety Nate Allen and fellow starting safety Charles Woodson is doubtful. Woodson is a huge veteran presence that will be greatly missed.

The big key here is that I think Oakland will keep pace or at least keep it close enough to push this well over the mark. The Raiders have some weapons offensively and will be looking to air it out early and often, which is great for the over. They catch the Ravens defense in a great spot, as Baltimore will be playing their 2nd straight on the road and have lost the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Terrell Suggs. He's one of those special players that the rest of the team feeds off of and requires so much attention from opposing offenses that it opens up things for the other guys up front.

OVER is a perfect 6-0 in the Raiders last 6 home games against AFC opponents, 7-1 in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 yards in their last contest and 7-3 in their last 10 after they managed 250 or less yards. Take the OVER!

3* NFL Afternoon Over/Under Total Annihilator on Bengals/Raiders OVER

I really like the value here with this total, as I look for both of these offenses to have a lot of success. Oakland's offense should be greatly improved with Carr having a year of experience and two legit wide outs to throw to in Cooper and Crabtree.

Cincinnati's offense gets a bad rap, but Andy Dalton and A.J. Green should have a field day against a bad Oakland secondary. I also look for Jeremy Hill to have a strong game out of the backfield.

4 of the Bengals last 5 games in Week 1 have gone OVER the total. The OVER is also 6-2 in Oakland's last 8 games at home Take the OVER!

5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on UTEP/Arkansas OVER 49.5

While Arkansas lost star running back Jonathan Williams to a season-ending foot injury, I don't think that's going to keep the Razorbacks from putting up a big number on the Miners Saturday. Arkansas scored 73 on Nicholls State, 49 on Texas Tech, 42 on Northern Illinois and 45 on UAB in their 4 non-conference games a year ago.

Their massive offensive line is going to create huge holes against the UTEP defense and score at will in this one. Keep in mind backup running back Alex Collins (1,100 yards 12 TDs, 5.4 ypc) as Williams (1,190 yards, 12 TDs, 5.6 ypc). The Razorbacks also get back senior quarterback Brandon Allen and the entire offense should feel comfortable in what will be head coach Brett Bielema's 3rd season. UTEP gave up 172 ypg and 5.2 ypc against the run last year, as well as a hefty 6.3 yards/play. They have just 5 starters back on that side of the ball and lose their leading tackler from a year ago in Wesley Miller (25 more tackles than the next best player).

UTEP's 4 non-conference games were also very high scoring in 2014, with 55 being the lowest combined output and that was against New Mexico. Not only are the Miners going to struggle to slow down a fine-tuned Arkansas offense, but they should be able to put some points on the board, whether it comes early or late. Razorbacks defense was really good a year ago, but they have just 6 starters back and have to replace 3 of their top 4 tacklers, including the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Martrell Spaight. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a 45-20 type of score in this one. Take the OVER!

4* Birmingham Bowl Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle in today's showdown between Florida and East Carolina. Both teams matchup extremely well with the opposing teams offense and I look for a lot of empty possessions that have this one finishing well below the mark.

Florida comes in with the 7th ranked defense in the country, giving up just 311.0 ypg and have been equally dominant against the run (116.8 ypg, 13th) as they have against the pass (194.2 ypg, 21st). East Carolina hasn't went up against a defense this good all season and we have seen them struggle against less talented units. Keep in mind the Pirates only managed to score 23-points against South Carolina out of the SEC, who had more than their fair share of struggles on the defensive side of the ball. Florida only gave up 3.1 yards/carry and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 53.6% of their attempts for an average completion of just 5.9 yards.

As for the Gators offense, it is almost exclusively dependent on their running game. Florida finished 41st in the country in rushing (189.5 ypg) compared to 103rd in passing (180.7 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the East Carolina defense. The Pirates finished inside the Top 10 in rushing, giving up just 107.1 ypg and allowed just 3.3 ypc. The key here is that with their defense figuring to keep the Pirates in check, Florida is going to continue to pound the rock on the ground and try and wear down this talented East Carolina front. Take the UNDER!

5* New Years Day Citrus Bowl Total of the Year on UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle between Minnesota and Missouri leading up to tonight's playoff matchups. Both of these teams have relied heavily on their defenses and offensively they are both focused on running the football.

The Golden Gophers finished 37th in the country in total defense (362.7 ypg). While they were better against the pass than the run, they are strong up front in the trenches and should have no problem keeping Missouri's 100th ranked (361.8 ypg) offense in check. Maty Mauk and the Tigers passing attack ranked just 94th, which is going to force the Tigers to rely almost exclusively on their running game against Minnesota.

Missouri's defense was the reason they won the SEC East. The Tigers finished 22nd in the country overall (344.3 ypg) and were strong against both the run (135.8 ypg, 28th) and the pass (208.5, 37th). The Tigers should have no problem slowing down the Gophers, who are extremely one dimensional. Minnesota finished with the 27th ranked rushing attack (224.6 ypg), compared to a 120th in passing (131.4 ypg).

This is the ideal scenario for the a low scoring game. Two strong defenses against a couple of offenses that are looking to grind out long drives and control the time of possession.

There's a strong system in play backing this as well. UNDER is 53-24 over the last 5 seasons in non-conference games when you have a strong rushing team that is averaging 190-230 ypg, against a team with a strong run defense that is giving up 100-140 ypg. That's a 69% system. Take the UNDER!

4* Music City Bowl Total Dominator on LSU/Notre Dame UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle this afternoon with LSU and Notre Dame and I think we are getting some great value here with this total due to the Fighting Irish's struggles on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch.

The key thing here is that LSU is not a strong offensive team and are extremely one dimensional with the running game. The Tigers finished 28th in the country in rushing (219.5 ypg) compared to a mere 112th in passing (163.9 ypg). While Notre Dame's defense struggled against both the run and the pass, they are better equipped to stop the run and will have an easier time doing so without having to worry too much about the pass. The Irish have also had more than enough time to prepare for this matchup and have got healthier on the defensive side of the ball during their bowl prep.

As for the Notre Dame offense, this is not a good matchup for them at all. The Fighting Irish have relied almost exclusively on their passing attack, which comes in 16th in the country at 293.8 ypg. That plays right into the hands of the LSU defense, which featured one of the best defenses in the nation. The Tigers held opponents to just 162.3 ypg through the air and opposing quarterbacks completed just 50.4%.

It's also important to note that Notre Dame is going to have to run the ball a little more than they would like, as they know they can't afford quick positions that leave their defense out on the field for extended periods. It's also important to note that LSU has a great redzone defense, but struggles to score offensively when in the redzone. Look for a lot of field goals and empty possessions for both teams, which is exactly what we are looking for with a total like this.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 42-12 since 1992 in non-conference games with a total set between 49.5 to 56 points that feature two strong teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play) at least 8 games into the year. That's a 78% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Texas Bowl Total Annihilator on Arkansas/Texas UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight when the Longhorns take on the Razorbacks. Both teams are going to come out extremely motivated. This is almost going to feel like a home game for Texas and they will be looking to give first year head coach Charlie Strong his first bowl win. Arkansas on the other hand will be playing in their first bowl game since 2011 and first under 2nd year head coach Bret Bielema.

Not only are both these teams going to be fired up for this game, they each have two of the better defenses in the country. Texas finished the year ranked 24th in total defense (348.4 ypg), while Arkansas was 21st (365.4 ypg). These two stop units should have an even bigger edge here with more than a month to prepare for the opposing offenses.

Another key factor to why I like the UNDER in this matchup, is the fact that both of these teams heavily rely on their running games. Texas got their ground game going late in the year and averaged 42.3 rush attempts over their last 4 games, Arkansas averaged 42 rush attempts to just 28 pass attempts over the entire season. Look for the clock to be running constantly in this one and most importantly both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and finish off with touchdowns.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Longhorns last 11 games against a strong offensive team that is averaging 31+ points/game and 9-2 in their last 11 games when listed as an underdog. UNDER is also 7-0 in the Razorbacks last 7 when listed as a neutral field favorite and 10-2 in their last 12 bowl games overall. These trends combine to form a 86% (25-4) system backing this one to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Poinsettia Bowl Total Dominator on UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for tonight's showdown between Navy and San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Both of these teams trended towards the UNDER this season. UNDER was 7-4 in Navy's 11 games with a total and 11-1 on they year for San Diego State. The only game for the Aztecs that finished over the total was a 29-38 loss at Boise State.

With this game being played on San Diego State's home field at Qualcomm Stadium, that only adds to the value here on the UNDER. The Aztecs allowed just 12.7 ppg at home this season and should have no problem keeping Navy's offense in check. San Diego's State 3-3-5 defense is built to stop these triple-option attacks and that was evident in their 30-14 win over Air Force in their second to last game of the regular season. They held and Air Force rushing attack that finished the year ranked 8th in the country at 273.1 ypg to just 140 yards on 41 attempts (3.4 ypg).

The key thing here is that Navy isn't going to abandon the run even if they struggle, as their just not built to throw the football. San Diego State is also a run dominated offense, as they finished 30th in rushing (218.6 ypg) compared to 102nd in passing (181.5 ypg). With both teams running constantly, the clock will continue to run, which is exactly what we are looking for when backing an UNDER like this. Just not enough possession here for this one to turn into a shootout.

UNDER is 10-2 in Navy's last 12 games against strong rushing teams that are averaging 4.75 or more yards/carry and 21-7 in San Diego State's last 28 against poor passing teams that average 150 or less yards/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 40-12 since 1992 in games with a total set between 49.5 to 56 points, where you have a non-conference matchup between two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play) facing off at least 8 games into the season. That's a 77% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NFL Week 16 Total Annihilator on Bills/Raiders OVER

The books have set this total too low, as I look for these two teams to have no problem eclipsing 40 points. Buffalo's defense is getting a ton of respect after what they have done the last two weeks against Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but I look for them to struggle to bring that same intensity on the road against a bad Oakland team. Unlike the last two weeks, the defense doesn't have to dominate for Buffalo to win this game. This is also a tough spot for the Bills, as they are going to have difficult time not looking ahead to next week's showdown against the Patriots.

I know the Raiders struggled to do much of anything offensively last week against Kansas City, but they have been moving the ball well at home down the stretch. Oakland has scored 24 points in each of their last 2 at the Coliseum against two stout defenses in the Chiefs and 49ers. I look for emerging running back Latavius Murray to catch this Buffalo defense by surprise, which is going to open up some opportunities for big plays down the field in the passing game.

The big key here is that I look for the Bills' offense to put up a big number and potentially surpass this total on their own. Buffalo is a better offensive team than they get credit for and this will be the worst defense they have faced all season. Adding to this is the fact that this is a tough spot for Oakland's defense to play up to their full potential. The Raiders have been picking and choosing when they decide to play and I look for them to have their eyes ahead to next weeks game against the Broncos.

OVER is 4-1 in Buffalo's last 5 after throwing for less than 150 passing yards in their previous game and 13-4 in their last 17 after covering the spread in 4 straight games. The OVER is also 6-1 in the Raiders last 7 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 77% (30-9) system. Take the OVER!

5* Pre-New Years Bowl Total of the Year on Utah State/UTEP UNDER

The last time Utah State took the field they were embarrassed 19-50 in a loss at Boise State, which denied them from getting back the MWC Championship Game. I think that poor showing by the Aggies defense has created some nice value here in what should be a defensive showdown.

Utah State comes into this game ranked 36th in the country in total defense (362.3 ypg) and 21st in scoring defense (20.8 ppg). UTEP on the other hand is 45th in total defense (369.8 ypg) and are only allowing 28.7 ppg.

The key here is that both of these teams rely on their defense to win games, as both have struggled on the offensive side of things. Utah State has lost 3 quarterbacks to season-ending injuries and as a result come in 80th in the country in total offense (381.3 ypg). While the Miners have been fortunate to not suffer any injuries at the quarterback position, they have been even worse than Utah State offensively. UTEP comes in 106th in total offense (357.0 ypg). The Miners do have the nation's 34th ranked rushing attack (212.7 ypg), but will be going up against the Aggies 26th ranked run defense (129.3 ypg).

Knowing that their offenses are going to have a difficult time sustaining drives, I look for both teams to play conservative and turn this into a field position battle. That should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up the clock and have this one finishing well below the mark of 46.

UNDER is 10-2 in Utah State's last 12 games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4 and perfect 6-0 in UTEP's last 6 when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. There's also a strong system in play. UNDER is 51-22 over the last 5 seasons in non-conference games when you have a good rushing team that is averaging 190 to 230 ypg (UTEP) against a team with a strong run defense (100-140 ypg). That's a 70% system. Take the UNDER!

5* AFC South Total of the Year on Jaguars/Titans OVER

We are getting some great value here, as the books have clearly adjusted to the performances of these two teams the last two week. The Jaguars put up just 12-points on the road against the Ravens after scoring just 13 at home against Houston, while the Titans scored 11 last week against the Jets and only 7 the week prior against the Giants.

As bad as these two offenses have been, the defenses have been equally as bad. Tennessee comes in 29th in total defense (378.7 ypg) and Jacksonville is right behind at 28th (372.6 ypg). Even with this being a rare nationally televised game for these two teams, I just don't see the defensive intensity being there.

Another key here here is that both of these offenses struggle to run the football, which is going to have both teams throwing early and often. With neither defense being all that good against the pass, it should lead to a lot of big plays down the field. I'm also expecting there to be a few turnovers that lead to quick scores.

A lot of time when two bad teams square off it ends up being a lot higher scoring game than what you expect and that has to do with their just not being the same energy and motivation when you are going up against another bad team.

OVER is 11-3 in Titans last 14 after scoring 14 points or less in their last game and 9-1 in their last 10 when they have scored 17 or less in each of their last two games. OVER is also 5-1 in Jacksonville's last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.

Adding to all of this is a nice system in play. OVER is 73-40 since 1983 in games played in the month of December where you have a home team that is off a road cover where the team lost outright as an underdog. That's a 65% system. Take the OVER!

3* Saints/Bears MNF Total NO BRAINER on OVER

I look for the Bears/Saints to have no problem surpassing this total, as both teams are struggling big time on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans has allowed at least 27 points in each of their last 5 games, while Chicago comes in giving up a 29.1 ppg, including 75 the past two weeks in back-to-back losses to the Lions and Cowboys.

The Saints come in averaging 26.8 ppg on the road and are giving up an average of 27.8 away from home. It's resulted in 5 of New Orleans 6 road games finishing OVER the total. Defensively the Bears are in a tough spot here, as there's not a lot of motivation here with Chicago being eliminated from the playoffs. This is the perfect matchup for the Saints offense to get back on track.

As for the Bears offense, I look for Cutler and company to come out relaxed and looking to take a few more chances than normal with nothing to lose. That should lead to some big plays and quick scores and likely some turnovers that result in quick scores for the Saints.

Adding to the advantages for both offenses is that we have two top 10 passing attacks going up against two of the worst pass defenses. New Orleans comes in ranked 3rd in passing (297.3 ypg), while the Bears are 10th at (254.2 ypg). The Saints are 30th against the pass (265.2 ypg) and Chicago is 31st (265.5 ypg).

OVER is 6-0 this season when the Saints come in having failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, 8-1 in Chicago's last 9 games when listed as an underdog and 11-1 in the Bears last 12 after playing their last game at home. OVER is also 5-0 in the Bears last 5 games in the month of December and 9-4 in the Saints last 13 games played on Monday Night Football. These trends combine to from a 87% (39-6) system. Take the OVER!

3* NFL Week 15 Total Annihilator on Broncos/Chargers OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in San Diego this Sunday between Peyton Manning the Broncos and Philip Rivers and the Chargers. These two teams combined for 56 points and 731 yards of total offense in the first meeting and that was neither team scoring at all in the 1st quarter. 

Denver's offense has been held in check the last couple of weeks by two of the better pass defenses in the league in Kansas City (2nd) and Buffalo (5th). While San Diego's defense ranks 8th against the pass, they just gave up 310 passing yards to Tom Brady and the Patriots last week and Manning carved them up the first meeting, completing 25 or 35 attempts for 286 yards and 3 touchdowns.

One of the big keys here is that Denver will be getting back star tight end Julius Thomas, who despite missing the last 3 games still leads the team with 12 touchdown receptions. Getting him back not only increases the Broncos productivity in the red zone, but it forces defenses from throwing all their coverage at Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

As for the Chargers offense, this is a good matchup for them. The strength of Denver's defense is stopping the run. Just last week they allowed Buffalo's Kyle Orton to complete 38 of 57 attempts for 355 yards. While Rivers had two costly interceptions in that first meeting against Denver, he completed 30 of 41 attempts (73%) for 252 yards and 3 touchdowns. I look for him to have even more success this time around at home, as the Chargers should have no problem scoring at least 24 points.

OVER is 30-9 in Denver's last 39 games against a team with a winning record,  9-1 in the Broncos' last 10 games against teams who are winning 60% to 75% of their games and 8-1 in their last 9 when they come in having won 3 or more in row. OVER is also 8-2 in the Chargers last 10 after they scored less than 15 in their last game. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (55-13) system. Take the OVER!

4* Army/Navy Rivalry Game of the Month on UNDER 58

Each of the last 8 meetings in this series have finished below the total and I’m expecting that streak to continue. The most points during this stretch that these two have combined for is 48 (2010 & 2011). The average score in the last 22 meetings is a mere 49 points.

One of the big reasons that we see such a huge total is both defenses are statistically two of the worst in the country. Navy comes in ranked 87th in total defense (426.3 ypg) and Army is 98th (444.4 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that the Midshipmen are allowing 29.9 ppg and the Black Knights are giving up 34.4 ppg. Most of the public will look at these numbers and won’t think twice about taking the over, without giving any consideration to the history of this series.

The key here is that this is one of the biggest rivalries that there is in college football and both teams are going to give everything they have to win this game. Navy has shown no signs of being content with their winning streak in the series and it goes without saying that Army is going to treat this like their Super Bowl.

A huge factor here that I think gets overlooked is that both of these teams run the triple-option attack, which means both teams are very familiar with not only how to operate it offensively, but the keys to stopping it. This is why you can’t look too much into the poor defensive numbers that these two teams have put up against the more conventional offenses that they go up against during the course of the regular season.

Two other things that favor into this one going under the total is that both teams have had more than enough time to prepare for this matchup. Navy was off last week and will be playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 15, while Army has had a full two weeks off coming into this one. The other key is that both teams almost exclusively only run the football, which means the clock is going to be running constantly. That’s going to limit the amount of opportunities that both teams have to score.

UNDER is 12-2 in Army’s last 14 road games against excellent rushing teams who average 5.25 or more yards/carry and 7-0 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 24-10 in Navy’s last 34 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 7-0 in their last 7 when playing against a team that’s won just 25% to 40% of their games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (50-12) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Cardinals/Rams NFL Total No Brainer on OVER

I think we are seeing a major overreaction from the books with this total. As impressive as the Rams back-to-back shutouts are, I'm confident the Cardinals will put up some points. The last time a team shutout three straight opponents was 38 years ago. Arizona's offense may be without Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington, but Drew Stanton is getting more an more comfortable in the offense and second-year back Kerwynn Williams is coming off a 100-yard performance against the Chiefs last week. These two teams combined for 45 points back in Week 10 and have scored at least 40 in each of the last 4 meetings.

One of the big reasons that I look for the Rams to not be as effective defensively is the short rest that comes with these Thursday night games. These prime time games have seen a number of high scoring games.

Another factor here that I believe will lead to this game going over the total is turnovers. These are two of the better defenses in the league at forcing the opposing team into mistakes. Arizona and St Louis are tied with 23 takeaways a piece and with two below average quarterbacks there's going to be some costly mistakes that lead to quick points.

OVER is 22-9 in the Rams last 31 home games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, 21-9 in their last 30 off 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread and 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games.

We also see a strong system in play. OVER is 42-18 since 1983 in games where you have an average rushing team (95-125 ypg) that has allowed 75 or less rushing yards and are going up against a strong run defense (70-95 ypg) at least 9 games in the season. That's a 70% system back this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* NFL Week 14 Total Annihilator on Bills/Broncos OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring game this Sunday between the Broncos and Bills. The average combined score in Denver home games this season is 57.8 points. The only game that failed to see at least 50 points was their Week 2 home contest against the Chiefs, who are very familiar with this team playing them twice a year inside the division.

While the Bills come into this contest with one of the top defenses in the league, this will be the first time they have faced Peyton Manning since he teamed up with the Broncos. Tom Brady and the Patriots torched this Bills defense for 37 points on 396 yards of total offense in Buffalo earlier this season and I look for Denver to put up similar numbers here.

One of the key factors here is that it's extremely difficult for opposing teams to play well in the thin air of Mile High Stadium, especially when they aren't familiar with it. There's just too many weapons on this Denver offense for the Buffalo to contain and while they lead the league in sacks, Manning is one of the best in the game at feeling the pressure and avoiding getting hit.

A huge factor in why I like this game to finish above the mark is that both of these offenses are going to have to throw the ball a ton. Buffalo is 7th in the league against the run (96.3 ypg) and Denver is 2nd (72.7 ypg).

OVER is 13-4 in the Broncos last 17 games when playing against a team with a winning record, 17-7 in their last 24 home games and 16-4 in their last 20 after playing their previous game on the road. The OVER is also a perfect 6-0 in Buffalo's last 6 road games off a SU win. These trends combine to form a 78% (52-15) system. Take the OVER!

5* Wisconsin/Ohio State Big Ten Total of the Year on UNDER

I don't think the books have adjusted this total near enough to make up for the loss of Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett. A big reason for that is likely due to the Big Ten Championship Game having produced some high-scoring games. Wisconsin and Michigan State combined for 81 points in 2011, Wisconsin and Nebraska combined for 101 in 2012 and last year Ohio State and Michigan State put up 58. I'm expecting a complete reversal, as I see this being an extremely low-scoring defensive battle.

With Ohio State having to turn to sophomore Cardale Jones in what will be his first start, I look for them to simply the playbook and try and take as much pressure off of him as they can by running the football. While Wisconsin has the 8th ranked run defense, the Buckeyes come in 12th in the country in rushing at 257.4 ypg and are averaging 5.6 yards/carry against teams that on average only allow 4.4. I believe that Ohio State is going to be able to have just enough success on the ground to sustain some drives and eat up the clock, but I don't see them being able to convert those drives into touchdowns.

On the flip side of this, I don't think Melvin Gordon and the Badgers are going to run all over the Buckeyes like a lot of people think. Urban Meyer and the Ohio State staff are going to load the box and make Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave make plays, something I don't believe he's going to be able to consistently enough to sustain drives. The other key here is that the Badgers aren't going to abandon the run.

I think both teams have a lot of confidence in their defenses to be able to stop the opposing team. I believe it's going to result in a more conservative approach offensively that has both teams looking to win the field position battle. Take the UNDER!

4* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Game of the Month on UNDER

With Arizona coming in ranked 20th in the country in scoring at 36.7 ppg and Oregon 4th at 45.9 ppg, the public is going to back the over blindly in this game. I believe the value here is with the UNDER. Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams have finished below the mark. They combined for just 55 points at Oregon earlier this season.

The thing you have to keep in mind is that the defenses have an even bigger advantage in the rematch, plus anyone who has watched these two teams play, know that Arizona's 3-3-5 defense gives the Ducks all kinds of problems. Oregon has also been playing much better defensively than they were when they two teams played back in early October.

You also have to factor in the magnitude of this game. Oregon is playing to maintain their spot in the playoffs, while the Wildcats are hoping for an upset and some help to get into the playoffs. The intensity is going to be high on both sides, which I believe is going to lead to this game going well below the mark.

UNDER is 10-2 in Oregon's last 12 games against excellent offensive teams who are averaging 450 or more total yards/game and a perfect 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 games against strong passing teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/attempt. You also have to factor in that this game is being played on the grass surface of Levi's Stadium. UNDER is 3-1-1 in Ducks' last 5 games on grass and 4-1 in Wildcats' last 5 games on grass.

Adding to all of this is a big time system. The UNDER is 30-8 over the last 10 seasons in games played on a neutral field with a total set at 63 or more points in a matchup involving two teams who are allowing 21-28 ppg. That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NFL Week 13 Total Annihilator on Giants/Jaguars OVER

With the Giants and Jaguars both out of the playoff picture in their respective conferences, I'm not expecting the intensity to be there for either of these teams when they take the field Sunday. A lack of motivation typically favors the offenses and I'm expecting that to be the case in this one.

The offense wasn't the problem for New York in last week's 28-31 home loss to the Cowboys, as the Giants put up 28 points (2nd highest output this season) on 417 yards of total offense. Eli Manning looked as comfortable as we have seen him all season, completing 29 of 40 attempts for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns.

There's no question that the Giants offense has received a big emotional boost from rookie wide out Odell Beckham Jr., who had one of the best catches I've ever seen last week against Dallas. It wasn't just one big play. Beckham had 10 receptions for 146 yards and two scores. His emergence along with a healthy Rashad Jennings at running back has New York finally taking the form that they had hoped they would start the season with.

The Giants shouldn't have any problem carrying over that momentum offensively against a Jacksonville defense that comes in ranked 30th in total defense (388.2 ypg) and 31st in scoring defense (27.7 ypg). There's every reason to believe New York will score 28+ points.

What will keep a lot of people from taking the OVER in this game is they won't be confident in the Jaguars adding enough offense to push this over the mark. However, I don't see that being a problem against a Giants defense that is in for a major letdown after a brutal 6-game stretch that saw them go against the Eagles, Cowboys, Colts, Seahawks, 49ers, and Cowboys a second time.

Another important aspect here is that while we are getting to the point of the season where conditions turn for the worse and games typically see a lot less scoring, that's not an issue with this one being played in Jacksonville.

OVER is 5-1 in the Giants' last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-1 in their last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 in the month of November. The OVER is also 4-1 in the Jaguars last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 86% (24-4) system. Take the OVER!

5* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year on Bengals/Bucs OVER

We are getting some great value here with this relatively low total between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. This is largely due to the UNDER having cashed in each the Bengals last 3 games and the Buccaneers last 5.

To no surprise the Bengals offense has got back on track with A.J. Green returning to the lineup. Cincinnati put up 27 points a couple weeks ago at New Orleans and 22 last week against the Texans. Both of those defenses provided more of a challenge than what the Bengals will face when they take on Tampa Bay. Defensively the Buccaneers rank 28th in scoring (27.3 ppg) and 22nd in yards allowed (367.9 ypg).

The thing you have to keep in mind with Tampa Bay's defensive numbers is those are aided by an extremely soft schedule. Through 11 games the Buccaneers have faced just three teams who currently have a winning record. It's also worth noting that Tampa Bay has been vulnerable to big plays in the passing game, where they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68% of their attempts with an 7.2 average/completion. Cincinnati should have no problem scoring 24+ points.

While the Bengals offense looks to be in line for a nice day, I don't think their defense is going to play up to their potential in this one. Cincinnati will be playing their 3rd straight game on the road and that really takes a toll on a defense. They also are taking a big step down in competition and that typically leads to defenses relaxing and not preparing like the should.

The other big key here is that Tampa Bay's offense has really started to come alive in the 2nd half. The Buccaneers are averaging 356.3 ypg over their last 3, which is a huge improvement over their season average of 318.2. A big reason for their uptick has been the emergence of rookie wide out Mike Evans, who has caught 24 passes for 505 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games. This unit is poised for a breakout performance and I think we could see them eclipse 30 points for the first time this season.

Adding to all of this is a great system that's in play. The OVER is 23-4 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that has gone under the total by at least 7 points in each of their last 3 games (Bengals). That's a 85% system! Take the OVER!

4* Big 10 Total of the Month on Minnesota/Wisconsin UNDER

With a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game on the line, I'm expecting a defensive battle similar to what we saw last year. The Badgers edged out a 20-7 win at Minnesota last season, which fell well below the total set of 51 points.

Both Wisconsin and Minnesota have got to this point behind excellent rushing attacks and strong defense. The Badgers come in ranked 3rd in the country in rushing (343.5 ypg) and 3rd in scoring defense (16.1 ppg). The Golden Gophers are 25th in rushing (228.9 ypg) and 30th in scoring defense (22.5).

The important thing here is that both offenses are one dimensional with the running game. Minnesota comes in averaging 47 rush attempts to just 18 pass attempts, while Wisconsin averages 46 rush attempts to just 21 pass attempts.

The clock should be running constantly in this one and both offense figure to really have to work to sustain drives. Expect to see a lot of long possessions with a good mix of empty drives and both offenses settling for field goals. Keep in mind last year not only did these two teams combine for just 27 points, together they totaled just 509 yards.

UNDER is 13-4 in all games Kill has coached when his team comes in having covered 3 out of the last 4 and 15-5 in Andersen's last 20 he's coached with his team having 2 out of the last 3. UNDER is also 11-4 in Minnesota's last 15 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. It's also 6-2-1 in Wisconsin's last 9 games in November. These trends combine to form a 75% (49-16) system. Take the UNDER!

5* C-USA Total of the Year on Rice/LA Tech UNDER 50.5

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Both Rice and Louisiana Tech are better defensively than they are offensively. The Owls are only allowing 26.2 ppg on the season and have and are only allowing 19.6 ppg during their current 8-1 run. That's with them giving up 41 on the road to Marshall. The Bulldogs are allowing just 24.6 ppg and that's with giving up 48 to Oklahoma and 45 to Auburn. It's also worth noting that Louisiana Tech is allowing just 15.7 ppg at home.

Both defenses also rank inside the Top 50 in the county in total defense. The Owls are 47th (371.4 ypg) and the Bulldogs are 28th (347.7 ypg). I look for each of these stop units to have a lot of success in this one, as both offenses are pretty one dimensional. Rice is just 77th in passing (213.3 ypg) and Louisiana Tech is a mere 99th in rushing (136.5 ypg).

The situation here also favors a low scoring game, as the winner of this game will win the West and take on Marshall in the C-USA Championship Game. You also have to factor in that the tape is out on both of these teams. It's unlikely either of these teams are going to do anything offensively that the opposing defense hasn't prepared for in practice.

The UNDER is 6-0 over the last 3 seasons when Rice faces a team with a winning record and 7-0 in the Owls' last 7 after 3 straight games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. These two trends combine to form a perfect 100% (13-0) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Total of the Year on Missouri/Arkansas UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total after watching Arkansas put up 30 points on Ole Miss and Missouri hanging 29 on Tennessee. What stands out to me is that both of these teams dominated defensively. Arkansas pitched their second straight shutout, while limiting Ole Miss to 316 yards, 19 first downs and 6 turnovers. The Tigers on the other hand allowed just 18 first downs on 279 yards of total offense to the Volunteers.

I believe all signs here point to a defensive battle. Arkansas has clearly turned it up a notch on the defensive side of the ball and the bigger the game the better this team seems to play. Keep in mind that the Razorbacks held Mississippi State to just 17 points on the road and limited Alabama to just 14 at home. Missouri is far from an offensive juggernaut and I could really seem them struggling to sustain drives against Arkansas.

The Tigers offense has been heavily reliant on their running game. Missouri is 55th in rushing (177.6 ypg) compared to 103rd in passing (183.1 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the Razorbacks defense, which is 20th against the run (120.9 ypg) and are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.7.

At the same time, Missouri's defense looks to be able to keep the Arkansas offense in check. The Tigers wouldn't be playing for a second straight SEC East title if it wasn't for the play of their defense. Missouri comes in 23rd in total defense (335.0 ypg) and most importantly are strong against the run (125.4 ypg, 23rd). Adding to this is the fact that the Tigers are only giving up 3.3 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.6. The Arkansas offense could also be limited here, as starting quarterback Brandon Allen is questionable with a hip injury.

So not only do we have to strong defensive teams that matchup well with the opposing teams' offense, but we have two teams that almost exclusively rely on their running games. It's a perfect recipe for an UNDER, especially when you add in the magnitude of this game with the Tigers playing for a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

UNDER is 15-5-1 in Arkansas' last 21 road games against a team with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 conference games and 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The UNDER is also 5-1-1 in Missouri's last 7 off a SU win, 5-0 in their last 5 home games and 3-1 this season against strong offensive teams who are averaging 5.9 or more yards/play. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system in favor of this one going below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Bears/Lions Thanksgiving Total Dominator on OVER

This might seem like a high total for how well the Lions have played defensively at home, but the these two teams have a history of putting up some points when they face off in Detroit. Last year the two combined for 72 points and in 2012 they combined for 50.

The Bears have too much talent offensively to continue to underperform and I think this will be a game where they have some success. Chicago's offense is built to play inside with two explosive receivers, a talented multipurpose running back and quarterback who can sling the rock. The Bears had one of their best offensive showings of the season at Atlanta dome, scoring 27 points on 478 yards of total offense. There's no question the Lions are a better defensive team than Atlanta, but Chicago should be able to take some of what New England used to put up 34 points and 439 yards on Detroit last week.

The key here is that we don't figure to need an offensive explosion by the Bears to push this over the mark. Detroit's offense is a lot better at home than they are on the road and with Calvin Johnson back at full strength, the Lions are due for a breakout game offensively. Chicago definitely is a good matchup for them to get their offense going. The Bears gave up 51 to the Patriots and 55 to the Packers in their last two road games.

Another thing to keep consider is that with Detroit being so good at stopping the run and so bad at running it offensively, both teams figure to be passing a lot. With the talent at the skill positions, there's going to be some big plays and most importantly a lot of possessions for both sides.

OVER is 11-3 in Chicago's last 14 road games, 9-1 in their last 10 road games with a total set at 42.5 to 49 points and 6-0 in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 2 out of their last 3. OVER is 29-13 in the Lion's last 42 home games against excellent passing teams who are completing 64% or more of their pass attempts and 33-16-2 in their last 51 after scoring less than 15 points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 73% (88-33) system. Take the OVER!