Sports Picks & Predictions

3* NCAAF Camellia Bowl TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Michigan UNDER

This doesn't figure to be the most entertaining bowl game, as both of these offenses figure to have a hard time moving the football. I think there's a ton of value with the UNDER in this contest due to the matchup. 

Georgia Southern is an option team. They average 49 rush attempts per game compared to 9 pass attempts. Eastern Michigan has a solid defense and the extra time to prepare for bowl games will pay off huge. As will the fact that the Eagles played a non-conference game in late October against Army. 

While the Black Knights had 289 rushing yards, they ran it a ridiculous 73 times for just 4.0 yards/carry. That's the perfect recipe for long drives that just eat up the clock. 

As for Eastern Michigan's offense it's nothing special. They only averaged 27.5 ppg and the teams they played gave up close to 30 ppg. They can't run the ball very well, as they only averaged 3.8 yards/carry. Georgia Southern only gave up 3.9 yards/carry. I just think they will find themselves behind the chains a lot, which is a drive killer and often leads to having to settle for field goals in the red zone. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Opening Week BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR  on Arizona State UNDER

The books have complete missed the mark on this total. I think we are getting over a touchdown in value with the UNDER in this one. This Fresno State defense is the real deal. The Bulldogs ranked 17th in the country in total defense. They were great against both the run (27th) and the pass (30th). 

With Arizona State's star wide out N'Keal Harry sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft, that only makes it that much easier on the Fresno State defense. Harry was a massive part of this offense. He had 73 catches for 1,088 yards and 9 scores. Only one other player on the team has more than 35 catches and that's Kyle Williams with 40 and he's also next best in receiving yards at 432. 

Without Harry even on the field, that lets the Bulldogs focus their defense even more on the run. I'm not expecting them to shutdown the Sun Devils rushing attack, but I think they can slow it down, which is going to lead to long possessions and less scoring chances for both sides. 

I also don't see much coming out of Fresno State's offense. They really struggled to score against the better defenses they faced. They only 14 points against a pretty bad Minnesota team in non-conference, so I'm pretty confident Arizona State can slow them down. I think both teams struggle to top 24 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Oklahoma UNDER

I just think the there's too much value here with the UNDER at this number. I know these two teams have been a part of several Big 12 shootouts this year, but these two have to average more than 3 touchdowns (21.75 points) per quarter for this to go over the mark. 

I just think when you factor in how big a game this, with a spot in the Big 12 Championship and maybe more with the playoffs if some other teams drop, chances are we aren't going to see 90 points on the scoreboard. Not to mention the game will be played in less than ideal conditions with temps in the mid 30's. 

UNDER is 15-4 in West Virginia's last 19 games after scoring 31 or more in 4 straight and 14-5 in the Mountaineers 19 games under head coach Dana Holgorsen with a spread of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

4* Chiefs/Rams MNF Vegas INSIDER on Chiefs/Rams UNDER

There's no denying that these are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL, but the books are on top of it. They know the public is going to bet the OVER no matter what number they put up and so they have set this thing ridiculously high. I just feel there's too much value at this number to not take a shot on the UNDER. 

Neither of these defenses have been very good, but I just feel there's too much talent on that Rams side of the ball for them to continue to struggle. As for the Chiefs, they have quietly been playing better on that side of the ball. Keep in mind they had a lot of young guys and new additions to that side of the ball, so it was going to take some time for them to gel. One thing is for, they can get after the quarterback. 

With the loss of Cooper Kupp, I think the Rams will be a little more run-heavy and the same could go for the Chiefs, as they are definitely aware of LA's struggles against the runs in recent games. That likely leads to some long drives. A few redzone stops be either defense and this thing could end up flying well below the mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* OLE MISS/VANDY SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss/Vandy OVER

I don't think we are going to have any problem eclipsing the total in this one. Ole Miss is the ideal team for high-scoring games. They got a ton of talent offensively and play no defense. It's almost like they should be in the Big 12. 

The Rebels come in having allowed 31 or more in each of their last 4 games. On the road this season, Ole Miss is allowing 35.7 ppg and 509 ypg, with teams averaging 252 yards rushing and another 257 through the air. 

Vanderbilt is a team that has the potential to go off offensively. They had more than 460 yards last week at Missouri, but only 28 points to show for it. The Week before they hung 45 on Arkansas. They have scored 30+ in 4 games and will do so here. They also will give up 30+ in this one, as the only teams to slow down this Ole Miss offense are Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Four of the best defensive teams in the country. Take the OVER! 

4* Packers/Seahawks Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Packers UNDER

I get the high total with how some of these Thursday games have gone, but I just don't think we are going to come anywhere close to the total set by the books. While the Packers put up 31 points last week at home against the Dolphins, Aaron Rodgers was just 19 of 28 for 182 yards. That's 3 straight games where he's threw for 253 or less. When he's not on, this team struggles to score against top tier defenses. 

I'm not saying Green Bay won't score against Seattle, I just don't see them putting up 30+. As for the Seahawks, they put up 31 against the Rams for the 2nd time this season. Those are the only two games where they have topped 30 points. Packers have a legit defense that ranks 11th in total defense and should be able to slow down Russell Wilson here. 

UNDER is 13-5 in the Seahawks last 18 vs another team from the NFC, 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 30+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* Tulane/Houston NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/Houston OVER

I just don't think these two teams are going to have any problem eclipsing what looks to be a high total. Houston's star defensive tackle, Ed Oliver, who is a sure-fire Top 5 pick in next year's NFL draft is out with a knee injury and the defense has completely fell apart with him sidelined.

He's missed the last 3 games and in those contests the Cougars have allowed 36 to South Florida, 45 to SMU and 59 to Temple. Every one of those saw at least 76 combined points and you have to go back to a Oct. 13 game against East Carolina to find the last contest that Houston didn't combine for more than the total here. 

Tulane has held 3 straight opponents under 20 points, but it's a bit misleading, as they gave up 450 yards last week to ECU and surrendered just 18 points. The previous week they gave up 442 to USF and they only finished with 15 points. Houston hasn't score less the 30 and have eclipsed 40 in all but one game this season. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Miami-OH/Northern Illinois UNDER

I just don't think this is going to be a very entertaining game to watch and these two will struggle to come close to the total set by the books. For starters, the game-time temperature is executed to be around 25-degrees and it will only get colder. It's just not as easy to score when it's that cold, as the passing game and big chunk plays are limited. 

For Northern Illinois this will be their final home game, so I expect a solid effort here on senior night. However, I do think some of the motivation here was lost with Western Michigan's loss to Ball State last night. With that defeat, the Huskies go from needing a win to lock up a spot in the MAC title to this game being more about pride. 

As for Miami, they kept their bowl hopes alive last week in a 30-28 win over Ohio and with a a win here they got a good shot to reach 6-6, as they host Ball State in the finale. Expect a big effort here from the RedHawks in a low-scoring affair. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Falcons/Browns UNDER

The books have set the bar way too high for Sunday's showdown between Atlanta and Cleveland. The Falcons defense was a liability early on and the perception is that with their inability to stop opposing teams and their ability to score, they are destined for high-scoring games. 

Thing things is, Atlanta's defense has improved as we have progressed through he season. Last time out they went on the road and held the Redskins to a mere 14 points. They will also be up against a Browns offense that has undergone some major changes of late with the firing of head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. 

Not only do I think Cleveland will struggle to score, but I like the Browns to make things difficult on Matt Ryan and that Atlanta offense. Falcons just aren't the same on the road as they are at home. They come into this game averaging 28.5 ppg overall, but are only scoring 22.3 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 23-8 in the Browns last 31 home games off a home loss and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 home games after 2 or more losses. Take the UNDER! 

4* Panthers/Steelers TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Panthers/Steelers UNDER

These are two of the better offenses in the NFL with big time playmakers at quarterback and I think we have seen the books inflate the total quite a bit knowing the public will want nothing to do with the UNDER in this matchup. 

I just think people are underestimating the talent on the defensive side of the ball. I know Pittsburgh's defense struggled early on this season, but they have held each of their last 4 opponents to 21 or fewer points, including a mere 17 points to the high-power Falcons offensive attack.

Carolina has scored 42 and 36 in their last two games, but both of those were at home, where they have played 5 of their 8 games so far. Panthers are only averaging 20.7 ppg on the road. 

As for the Panthers defense, I think it's got the pieces on that side of the ball to at least slow down this Pittsburgh attack. It's also getting to that time of the year where it gets a lot harder to score with less than ideal conditions. I'm not saying it's going to be 14-17, I just see more of a 24-20 type of game.

UNDER is a solid 25-11 in Carolina's last 36 off a division win by 10+ points and 8-1 in their last 9 road games on a grass surface. Take the UNDER! 

4* Thursday Night NCAAF Over/Under KNOCKOUT on Wake Forest/NC State UNDER

Too much value here with the UNDER to pass up. The books have inflated this number quite a bit with it being a prime time game and the public sure to come in on the OVER with how these teams have looked recently. 

Wake Forest combined for 91 at Louisville a couple weeks back and 65 last week with Syracuse. NC State's last two have seen them combine for 91 with Syracuse and 75 with FSU. 

I just don't think we are going to get enough scoring from both sides to eclipse the mark here. Wake Forest lost starting quarterback Sam Hartman and have had less than a handful of games to get red-shirt sophomore Jamie Newman ready for action. Newman has seen the field some, but hasn't exactly impressed. 

With how good NC State is against the run, I don't think Wake will be able to sustain enough drives to score the number of points needed to push this over. If the Demon Deacons don't score and the Wolfpack get up big, they will likely take their foot off the gas and look to play a lot of seniors, who maybe don't get to see the field a lot (senior night).

UNDER is also 13-3 in NC State's last 16 off a home conference win, 12-4 in their last 16 vs a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 vs teams who can't stop the run (allowing 200+ ypc). Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Tues. Night MAC Total NO-BRAINER on Kent State/Buffalo UNDER

A lot of people are going to look and see that Buffalo is averaging 34.9 ppg and are fresh off a 51-point outburst against a good Miami, OH team and instantly want to take the OVER at this number, especially seeing that Kent State just played in a game against Bowling Green that saw a combined 63 points scored. 

What they will fail to notice is that the conditions here are going to be miserable. Wins are expected to be blowing at close to 30 mph and there's a chance it could rain on top of that. That's going to all but negate the passing games for both teams and really make it hard to just get first downs. 

Buffalo is just going to do whatever it takes to get the win and aren't going to be interested in keeping their starters in with a massive game on deck against Ohio (win and the lock up a spot in MAC Championship Game). Take the UNDER! 

3* Titans/Cowboys MNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Titans/Cowboys UNDER

I'm going to side with the UNDER on Monday Night Football. Despite how both of these offensives have struggled at times, the public won't be able to help themselves with the OVER at this number. I just don't see these two getting to 40 points, as this has defensive battle written all over it. 

These are really just two ideal teams to back for a low-scoring game. It's no secret the Cowboys are a run-first team with Zeke. I think people are kinda expecting them to go off with the addition of Amari Cooper, but chances are it will take some time before Cooper's impact is really felt. He's got to learn the whole playbook. Tennessee has one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL (30th, 192.3 ypg) and while they are focus on running, they aren't great (17th, 107.9 ypg). 

Most importantly these two bad offenses will be up against two teams that are really playing well on the defensive side of the ball. Titans are 3rd in scoring defense (18.1 ppg) and 9th in total defense (338.7 ypg). Cowboys are 1st in scoring defense (17.6 ppg) and 3rd in total defense (313.7 ppg). Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Rams UNDER

Most are just going to expect these two high-powered offenses to light up the scoreboard. I'm not saying this will be a defensive battle, but a total of 59 is way too high for this one. This isn't just another game. There's a good chance the No. 1 seed and home field in the NFC will be determined by who wins. 

I expect both teams to treat this like a playoff game and we just don't usually see a shootout in the postseason. Not to mention, as good as these two offenses are, they both have a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. 

These two teams played last year in late November and combined for just 46 (26-20) points with a total of 54. We might get a little more scoring with the game in New Orleans, but I think this ends closer to 50 than it does 60. Take the UNDER 59! 

3* Temple/UCF NCAAF PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple UNDER

I don't see any way these two teams combine for more than 60 points. These are two of the top defensive teams in the ACC. UCF is only giving up 19.2 ppg in conference play and the Owls are allowing just 14.2. 

The biggest key here is this Temple defense has the talent and speed to contain this high-powered UCF offense. The Owls are 25th in the country this season, giving up just 330 yards/game, while also holding teams to just 4.2 yards/carry. 

On top of that star quarterback McKenzie Milton is dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss UCF's last game. While he likely plays, he might not pose near the threat running if it's not 100%. 

Temple may once again be without star running back Ryquell Armstead and the offense hasn't been the same the last two games without him. Even if he does return, it's unlikely the Owls will put up a big number on the road against this UCF defense. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER on Eagles OVER

With the talent these two teams have on the defensive side of the ball and the way both offenses are struggling, most will expect a lower-scoring game. I just don't think that's going to be the case. More times than not, these London games end up being a lot higher-scoring than expected and there's no question that has a lot to do with the travel and players just not adjusting to the time change. 

Jacksonville's offense simply can't be any worse than it has the last two weeks, where they managed just 7-points in losses to the Cowboys and Texans. Blake Bortles has not played well during this stretch. Media and fans are calling for him to be benched for good and I think this entire Jaguars offense will rally around their quarterback and he will find a way to snap out of this funk. 

As for the Eagles offense, they have been moving the ball, but just have made a lot of careless turnovers and not finished off drives like you would expect. Carson Wentz is too good for this unit to to stay down for long.

OVER is 13-4 in the Jaguars last 17 off a game that went UNDER the total and is 12-2 in the Eagles last 14 road games when playing on 6 or less days of rest. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Arizona State/USC UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark with the total they have set for Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between USC and Arizona State. This thing has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. 

Arizona State comes in averaging 27.4 ppg, but that's a misleading number, as they scored 49 against a bad UTSA team at home and 52 against Oregon State. Those are the only two games all season in which they have scored more than 21 points. 

USC's defense isn't as dominant as it has been in the past, but it should have no problem keeping the Sun Devils in check, especially at home. 

They key here is the Trojans offense also figures to be limited. Starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play, as he hasn't cleared the concussion protocol. Backup, Matt Fink is also not available with a rib injury.

Red-shirt freshman, Jack Sears, will start if Daniels can't go and he's not attempted a single pass at the collegiate level. USC will be a lot more simple with their offensive attack and try to keep Sears from having to do too much in his first start, which likely means a lot of running the football. 

UNDER is 7-0 in USC's last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards and 21-7-1 in their last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record. UNDER is also 4-1 in Arizona State's last 5 conference games and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* Dolphins/Texans TNF Total DESTROYER on Dolphins/Texans UNDER

We have seen a bunch of high-scoring games on Thursday Night Football so far this season and I think the public is catching on and the books have made the total here way too high. 

Neither of these teams have looked all that great offensively this year. Both are also really hurting with injuries right now on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't think these two offenses are healthy enough to create enough scoring for this to go over the mark. 

Miami is down starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and starting Brock Osweiler in his place. They also just lost wide out Albert Wilson, who had been their best playmaker this season. Fellow wide out Kenny Stills isn't exacted to play and DeVante Parker is questionable. I think they struggle to just get first downs going up against J.J. Watt and that Texans defense. 

Houston has Deshaun Watson and everyone remembers the crazy numbers he put up in that short stretch during his rookie season. Watson hasn't been the same dynamic player this year and the offense for the Texans has been stuck in neutral. They have scored 22 or fewer points in all but one game this season and that was against a depleted Colts defense. I'm not saying Miami will shut them down, but I also expect more of the same struggles from Houston in this one. Take the UNDER! 

3* Thursday Night NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on App State/GA Southern OVER

I just think there's too much value here on the OVER with the low total in Thursday's huge Sun Belt showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. With the Mountaineers a 10-point favorite, the numbers here suggest the books see a final score of something like 28-17. 

Only once all season has Appalachian State failed to score at least 35 points. I just think this offense is too good for Georgia Southern to keep in check and could easily see them scoring 30+. I also think the Eagles are going to be able to put together multiple scoring drives and get into the 20s, especially with this game being played on their home field. 

Note that Georgia Southern comes into this game with the 5th ranked rushing offense in the country at 275.5 ypg. The last 11 times App St has faced a team that averts 200 or more rushing yards, the average score in those games have been 48.3. OVER is also 6-1 in the Eagles last 7 games played in the month of October. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor UNDER

Most people are expecting a shootout tonight between Baylor and West Virginia, but that's not going to be the case. West Virginia's offense was exposed in their last game against Iowa State, as they managed just 152 total and 9 first downs. 

That's the same ISU defense that 37 points and 519 yards to Oklahoma at home. Because Baylor gave up 66 on the road to the Sooners, I think people just assume West Virginia is going to score at will here. I don't think that's the case. The Mountaineers aren't close to Oklahoma's offense. 

Baylor's defense has been getting better and just held Texas to 23 points on the road in their last game. As for the Bears' offense, it's been potent at times, but for the most part it's struggled against better competition. I mean they only had 26 points at home against Kansas. West Virginia's defense isn't great, but it's a lot stronger at home than it is on the road. 

The other key here is both teams are coming off a bye, which I think a lot of people overlook when handicapping the total. There's a lot of tape out on both teams and the defenses for both teams are going to be well prepared for this one. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NFL Bengals/Chiefs SNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Bengals/Chiefs UNDER

As difficult as it is to bet the UNDER in a game involving the Chiefs and that high-powered offense, there's simply too much value here on the UNDER at nearly 60 points to pass up. No question the books inflated this number after last week's Chiefs/Pats game combining for 83 points. 

I just don't think Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense is going to be scoring 30+ points in this game. Cincinnati managed just 21 points and 275 total yards last week against a bad Steelers defense and keep in mind they had just 14 points and 200 total yards before that late TD drive to take a brief 21-20 lead before giving up the game-winning score. 

As bad as the numbers are for the Chiefs defense, the big key here is how much better they have played at home. While they allowed 27 to the 49ers in their home opener, a lot of that had to do with the game being over at the half with KC up 35-10. There other home game was against the Jags and they shutout Jacksonville for 2+ quarters. 

The Chiefs are going to score, but I just don't see them scoring at the rated needed to push this over the mark. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Bengals last 10 road games after being outgained by 150+ yards last time out and 13-4 in the Chiefs last 17 home games against a bad defense team (allowing 350+ yards/game). Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF SUN BELT PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Southern UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this non-conference slate between Georgia Southern and New Mexico State. I think we are seeing a big number here because of how poorly the Aggies defense has played, as they come in giving up 43.7 ppg.

The key here is that Georgia Southern is a team that runs the option, which means they are going to put together a lot of long possessions and eat up the clock. I think New Mexico State can at least hold their own defensively against the run at home and last time out for the Eagles they managed just 15 points against a pretty bad Texas State defense. 

The other thing that I think will keep this thing UNDER the mark, is I don't see New Mexico State's offense being able to do much of anything in this one. Georgia Southern has really played well defensively this year, as they are giving up just 17.3 ppg. The Aggies aren't a good rushing team and their passing attack is going to be greatly limited in this one, as winds are expected to be blowing straight across the field at close to 20 mph. 

UNDER was 6-0 in New Mexico State's 6 home games over the last 3 seasons in the 2nd half of the season and 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in Georgia Southern's last 7 games and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Nebraska UNDER

Most are going to expect a high-scoring game here, but I think I don't see these two going past the mark set here. This is a must-win game for both sides. Nebraska is still searching for their first win of 2018, while the Golden Gophers are trying to snap a 3-game skid. 

I know the defensive numbers aren't great for the Cornhuskers, but while they ended up giving up 34 points to Northwestern, the Wildcats only had 14 going into the 4th quarter. Given how much this game means to Nebraska I expect a max effort on the defensive side of the ball and this Minnesota offense is certainly one they can contain. The Gophers are averaging just 19.3 ppg in Big Ten play and that's with them scoring 31 against Iowa. 

Minnesota's defense has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 3 games, but are much better than that and have simply played some high-powered offenses during this stretch. 

Another factor here that will get overlooked by most, is the conditions for this game should favor the defenses. It's going to be windy in Linclon with wends blowing anywhere from 15 to 20 mph. That's going to force both teams to run it more than they would like and could also play a role in special teams with field goals being that much tougher.

UNDER is also 13-2 in Nebraska's last 15 games as a favorite and 10-2 over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* Air Force/UNLV MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on UNLV UNDER

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total they have set for Friday's Mountain West matchup between Air Force and UNLV. With how bad these two teams are passing and how much they love to run the football, I just don't see enough possessions for these two get anywhere close to 60 points. 

The Falcons enter 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Needless to say this is going to be one of the more boring games to watch, but boring is great when you are betting the UNDER, especially with a total as high as this one. 

In order for these two teams to eclipse the total they need 57 points and to get to that mark they would have to average more than two touchdowns a quarter. Unless both teams just have turnover after turnover, I don't see that happening. In fact, I think these two will be lucky to get to 45 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* 49ers/Packers MNF Total NO-BRAINER  on 49ers/Packers UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football, as I feel we are seeing an inflated number here with SF having gone OVER the total in 4 straight and the Packers having gone OVER the total in 4 of their first 5 games. 

These two teams are a lot better defensively than people realize. San Francisco is 12th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 348 ypg. The Packers are 4th, allowing a mere 314 ypg. Both teams rank in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. 

Both could also be missing several key players on the offensive side of the ball. Already down starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers will also be without their best back in Matt Breida. They also have 3 starters on the offensive line questionable, as well as wide out Marquise Goodwin. Green Bay may be without two of their top wide outs in Randall Cobb and Jaire Alexander and Aaron Rodgers is playing at less than 100% after tweaking that left knee injury he suffered in Week 1 last week against the Lions. 

The game will also be played in less than ideal scoring conditions, as temps are expected to be just barely above freezing with a 10 mph wind. 

UNDER is also 26-3 (90%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (49ers) giving up 27+ ppg, who has allowed 25 or more in each of their last 4 games. Take the UNDER! 

5* Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pats/Chiefs OVER

You don't see a ton of NFL totals approaching 60 points, but I got no problem here backing the OVER when the Chiefs visit the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. I honestly don't know that the books can set the total high enough for the offense fireworks that will be on display. 

While there's a few out there that aren't completely sold on Mahomes, this kid is the real deal. He had his worst game of the season last week against the Jaguars, failing to throw a single TD pass and throwing his first two interceptions of the season. He still threw for 313 yards and rushed for a score in the Chiefs convincing win over Jacksonville. Not a bad day against arguably the best defense in the NFL. 

Andy Reid's offenses have given the Patriots troubles in recent meetings with Alex Smith under center. I just don't think New England has the talent to contain Mahomes and all those weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Belichick loves to take away a teams strength or top playmaker, but that's hard to do with this Chiefs team, as they got top not skill players all over the field and Mahomes is not shy about spreading the ball around. He's thrown 14 touchdown passes to 9 different receivers. 

As for the Patriots offense, they are going to have try and keep pace and they should be able to do just that against a bad KC defense. While the Chiefs held the Jaguars to 14 points, they gave up over 500 yards of offense. They simply took advantage of a poor game by Jacksonville stater Blake Bortles. Brady isn't going to make those same mistakes. 

I think both teams will score at least 30 points, which would be more than enough to cash a winning ticket here. OVER is also 73-37 (66%) since 1983 when you have an undefeated road team off a home win by 10 or more. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Eagles OVER

I think we are getting great value here on the total, as I feel the books have set the bar too low for the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball, especially at the quarterback position. I think we are seeing a low number because of how much respect these two defenses get. 

Minnesota's stop unit led the NFL last year in both scoring defense and total defense, while the Eagles defense carried them all the way to the Super Bowl title. A lot can change in one season and this Vikings defense is producing no where close to last year, which is why they are sitting at 1-2-1. They gave up 29 to Green Bay in Week 2, 27 at home to the Bills in Week 3 and 38 last week to the Rams. 

Wentz and the Eagles haven't taken off like people expected, but he's only going to keep getting better and I think this could be the week he goes off. Outside of the egg they laid against the Bills, Minnesota's offense has played well behind new quarterback Kirk Cousins. 

I think we get enough big plays out of Wentz and Cousins to push this one into the 50's. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Bills OVER

These are two teams that have struggled offensively early and just don't have a ton of playmakers on that side of the ball. While I'm not expecting these two teams to get into a shootout, I think there's some great value here with the total for this game sitting under 40.

I don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to score 20 points. Tennessee has done that in 3 of their 4 games and the only exception was against an elite Buffalo defense. The Bills offense couldn't have looked much worse last week against Green Bay, but I look for them to get back on track at home.

Titans defense has been strong, but I think this is a big flat spot for Tennessee. Their last three games have come against the Texans, Jags and Eagles. They needed everything they had to win all 3 and all 3 wins came by exactly 3-points. Hard for them to get up for a team like the Bills and I think Buffalo takes full advantage.

OVER is 13-3 in the Bills last 16 home games, 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER!  

4* Colts/Patriots TNF Total NO-BRAINER on Colts/Patriots UNDER

Last week's Thursday night game between the Rams and Vikings saw a combined 69 points with the two teams nearly going OVER the total in the 1st half. While these Thursday games can be higher-scoring given teams are playing on short rest, I feel the number here and the injuries for both sides will keep this well below the mark. 

The Colts are dealing with massive injuries on the offensive line, which is going to put Andrew Luck and that offense behind the 8-ball from the start. On top of that they won't have starting running back Marlon Mack, wide out TY Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle. 

New England will get back Julian Edelman and Gronk is expected to play after suffering an ankle injury last week, but he's likely to be playing at less than 100%. I know the Colts just gave up 37 last week to the Texans, but they have been really good defensively on the road, allowing just 9 points at Washington and 20 at Philadelphia. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Colts last 6 road games, 8-1 in their last 9 off a loss and 8-2 in their last 10 vs an AFC opponent. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Patriots last 10 vs the AFC, 8-3 in their last 11 after gaining more than 350 yards in the previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL Sunday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers UNDER

The fact that the OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Steelers first 3 games and the Ravens are looking strong offensively to start, has this total for Sunday Night Football set way to high. I think both teams will struggle to come anywhere close to putting up the kind of numbers here to push this over the mark. 

The biggest thing that gets overlooked is just how much harder it is offensively against a division opponent, as these teams play each other twice a year and are very familiar with the schemes the opponent likes to run. 

Baltimores defense has been great outside of the Thursday night game against the Bengals and I believe that poor showing was a direct result of playing on just 3 days of rest. The Ravens definitely matchup well with Pittsburgh and their high-powered passing attack, as Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.3 ypg. 

The Steelers defense hasn't been the same since losing Ryan Shazier at the end of last season, but they were sharp last week against the Bucs. While they allowed 27 points for the game, Tampa Bay had just 10 points at the half and the Steelers defense forced 4 turnovers. Baltimore's offense also isn't as good as the numbers would suggest, as they have benefited greatly from playing the likes of the Bills, Bengals and Broncos. 

UNDER is 13-3 in the Steelers last 12 vs a team that's averaging 29 or more points/game and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they allowed 250 or more yards passing. 

We also find a great system in play, as the UNDER is 75-35 (68%) when you have a total of 49.5 or more with a team (Ravens) off a home win and playing a division game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Prime Time TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Stanford OVER

Both the Fighting Irish and Cardinal are well known for their defenses and both have impressed early against quality competition. Stanford has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 10 points or less, including limiting USC to just 3-points. Notre Dame has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 17 or fewer, one of those being Shea Patterson and the Wolverines. 

However, both defenses gave up a season-high last week. With Stanford allowing 31 to Oregon (should have been a lot more) and the Irish allowing 27 to Wake Forest. I believe that's a telling sign of what's to come on Saturday, as I look for these two teams to fly over this total. 

Notre Dame, like a lot of top tier teams around the country, made a move at quarterback, going to sophomore Ian Book. It sure looked like the right move, as Book went 25 of 34 for 325 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 43 yards and 3 touchdowns. I believe he takes a good Irish offense and makes them elite.

As for Stanford, their offense couldn't have looked much worse early on, but they finally looked up to par in last week's game agains the Ducks. K.J. Costello threw for 327 yards and 3 scores and Bryce Love had 89 yards on just 19 attempts. 

I think both teams score in the high 20's and potentially into the 30's, which will be more than enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. Take the OVER 52! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* MNF (PIT/TB) Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Steelers OVER

The books simply haven't set the bar high enough for this one. Scoring is up this year and we have two offenses that are clicking early against two defenses that haven't been up to par. 

The Steelers managed just 21 points in their opener against the Browns, but did have an impressive 472 total yards. They were doomed by 6 turnovers and keep in mind that game was played in less than ideal conditions. Week 2 they put up 37 points and 475 total yards in a game with KC that saw a combined score of 79 points. 

All the talk with the Bucs is centered around Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown for over 400 yards and 4 scores in each of their first two games. They put up 48 points in their Week 1 win on the road against the Saints and 27 last week against the Eagles, who have one of the best defenses in the league. 

All of the focus on the offense has people overlooking how bad Tampa Bays defense has played. The Bucs are giving up 30.5 ppg and 443.5 ypg. It doesn't figure to be any better against Roethlisber and the Steelers potent offense, especially with all the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball. 

As for Pittsburgh's defense, it just hasn't been the same since they lost Ryan Shazier a season ago. I could see them playing better this week with Joe Haden back from injury, but they aren't shutting down this Bucs offense on the road. Both teams figure to score early and often and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if these two combined for 65+ points. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Florida UNDER

I just think the number here is way too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Florida and Colorado State. The Rams defense couldn't have looked much worse in their first two games, as they gave up 43 to Hawaii and 45 to Colorado. I think a lot of that had to do with just how good those two teams are offensively. 

Colorado State turned around and held Arkansas to just 27 points in a 34-27 outright win as a 14-point dog. They held the Razorbacks scoreless over the final 20+ minutes of that game. Florida put up 53 in their opener against Charleston Southern, but showed their true colors in a 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky. I like Dan Mullen and expect big things from him in Gainesville, but I'm just not a fan of Felipe Franks at quarterback and the fact that he led the team with 44 yards rushing against Kentucky is a huge concern. 

The key here is I think we are going to see a highly motivated Florida team on the defensive side of the ball off that embarrassing home loss. Colorado State has put up 34 twice against a couple of bad defenses in Hawaii and Arkansas, but only managed 13 against in-state rival Colorado. I just don't see how these teams combine for anywhere close to this number. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Memphis -

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Friday's non-conference slate that has Memphis hosting Georgia State. A lot of people are just going to assume that Memphis is going to light up the scoreboard against this Panthers team after they allowed 41 to NC State last week.

That was a very misleading score, as the Tigers added a couple of garbage touchdowns late in that game, one right after Georgia State failed to covert on 4th down and the other after a fumble where they had to go just 12 yards. The Wolfpack also got a field goal on the final play of the 2nd half. 

I also think people are a little too high on this Memphis offense because they put up 66 in the opener against a bad Mercer team. The offense couldn't make a play when it needed to against a pretty bad Navy defense last week and they simply aren't going to be as potent as they have the last couple of years after losing one of their all-time great quarterbacks in Riley Ferguson. 

UNDER has cashed in 24 of Georgia State's last 32 games, including 9 of their last 12 on the road and 9 of their last 12 in non-conference play. Take the UNDER! 

4* In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring matchup on Saturday when the Cyclones travel across the state to take on in-state rival Iowa. The Cyclones didn't even get to play a full quarter before their opener against South Dakota State was canceled because of weather. The Hawkeyes meanwhile overcame a sluggish start to defeat Northern Illinois 33-7. 

The Hawkeyes only had 3 points just about midway thru the 3rd quarter before they exploded for 30 in the final 23 minutes of regulation. Despite a talented quarterback in Nathan Stanley, this is still your same old Iowa offense that wants to ground and pound their way down the field. 

I think they are going to have a really tough time moving the ball against a Cyclones defense that has 6 starters back from a stop unit that only allowed 20.9 ppg in 2017. 

As for Iowa State and their offense, they caught a tough break not being able to work out the kinks against a FCS team in their opener. I think they too will struggle to score. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when it's a late kickoff like this. Last 5 times the Cyclones have visited Iowa City, they have failed to score more than 20 points in any game and were held to single-digits in 4 of 5 meetings. 

Iowa held a Northern Illinois team that many think are the favorites to win the MAC, to just 7 points and 211 total yards. That's pretty impressive given the Huskies returned 8 starters from a unit that averaged 28.9 ppg and 378 ypg last year. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Labor Day Total DESTROYER on Virginia Tech/Florida State UNDER

I think a lot of people are going to look at how little these two teams have coming back defensively and be quick to back the OVER. While both FSU and Virginia Tech will lack experience on defense, these are two top notch programs that recruit extremely well. I expect both teams to be just fine defensively this year. 

I also think we have two solid defensive coordinators that will have their units ready to go with all the extra time they have had to prepare for this game. Virginia Tech's Bud Foster has been doing this for ever and I really like new FSU defensive coordinator Harlon Barnett, who spent the last 3 years at Michigan State. 

UNDER is 35-17 in Virginia Tech's last 52 conference games and 20-7 in Florida State's last 27 vs ACC opponents. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Louisville/Alabama OVER

I don't see anyway the final score between Alabama and Louisville stays UNDER 65 points. Other sharps couldn't agree more, as this total has grown quite a bit from the original number. 

Over the last 5 years, the Crimson Tide's lowest scoring average for a season is 35.1 ppg, which is pretty impressive given they have been primarily a running team. Last year they averaged 37.1 ppg and averaged 251 ypg on the ground and just 193 ypg through the air. 

Alabama is still going to run all over people, especially with the talent they have coming back at running back and how stacked they are on the offensive line. They are also going to exploit teams through the air behind sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. I know it's up in the air whether Tua or Jalen Hurts will start, but I expect Tagovailoa to get most of the reps. Not to mention the Crimson Tide will be going up against a Louisville defense that returns just 4 starters from a unit that wasn't very good in 2017. 

Scoring on Alabama is never an easy task, as they routinely have one of the best defenses in the country. They will be strong again on that side of the ball, but they do only have 3 starters back. I also think Louisville's offense isn't getting near the respect they deserve because of the fact that they lost Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals have some legit playmakers at receiver and sophomore Juwan Pass is extremely talented (No. 7 recruit at his position coming out of high school). 

I see this being a shootout and that's been the case in recent years for Alabama in these neutral site games. The OVER is 21-8 in the Crimson Tide's last 29 games played on a neutral field. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Michigan/Notre Dame OVER

There's been plenty of talk going around about how good this Michigan defense is going to be in 2018, so the public is going to be drawn to playing the UNDER in their games, especially against a top tier team like Notre Dame, who is returning 9 starters from a defense that only gave up 21.5 ppg last year. 

While I'm not about to say that these two teams won't be as good as advertised on defense, I think it's got the total way to low given the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball. In Jim Harbaugh's first 3 years at Michigan, the Wolverines have got average to below-average play out of the quarterback position. That's no longer going to be the case with Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson now the starter. 

As for how the Notre Dame offense will be able to score against this Michigan defense. One of the toughest things for elite defenses is to defend mobile quarterbacks and the Irish have one of the best dual-threats in the country in Brandon Wimbush. They are also a lot more talented on the offensive line than people are giving them credit for after losing two 1st round draft picks. 

I think both teams are going to have some explosive plays offensively that lead to quick scores. I also think we could see some turnovers by both teams that lead to quick scores, which will ultimately push this OVER the mark. 

Keep in mind, despite the less than stellar QB play, the OVER is 24-14-1 in Michigan games since Harbaugh came to town. OVER is also 7-1-1 in the Wolverine's last 9 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in Notre Dame's last 4 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UCLA OVER

If there's one thing we learned with Chip Kelly in his stint with the NFL, he's going to run his up-tempo offensive attack regardless of the talent on hand. Win or lose, UCLA is going to push the pace offensively this year. With a defense that doesn't have near the talent as year's past, it's going to ultimately lead to a lot of high-scoring games. 

So while this might seem like a high total for this matchup, I don't think it's anywhere close to what it should be. I look for UCLA and Cincinnati to fly over the mark here. 

One of the reasons this total isn't higher, is the fact that Cincinnati has really struggled offensively the past two seasons. The Bearcats averaged just 19.3 ppg in 2016 and barely improved to 20.9 ppg last year. However, I'm expecting big improvements in year two under offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and more than anything the UCLA defense is going to give up a ton of yards and points with how much they are going to be on the field. 

As a head coach at Oregon, the OVER went 32-15 when Kelly's Ducks were listed as the favorite and 19-5 at home. I expect more of the same now that he's a Bruin. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin/WKU OVER

I'm not sure what the books are thinking by setting the total this low, but I will gladly jump on the OVER. In Wisconsin's last 3 home openers, they have eclipsed the total set here on their own. The Badgers put up 58 on Miami (OH) in 2015, 54 two years ago against Akron and 59 last season against Utah State. 

I think there's a really good chance that trend continues. Wisconsin returns 9 starters on offense, including junior quarterback Alex Hornibrook, running back Jonathan Taylor (Heisman candidate) and all 5 starters on what many believe is the best unit in the country. WKU simply doesn't have the size or talent on defense to keep Wisconsin from doing whatever they want in this one. 

I also think we could see the Hilltoppers score a few more points than expected. While WKU only has 3 starters back on offense, they should actually be improved on that side of the ball, as last year's unit was a complete mess. They will also be up against an inexperienced Wisconsin defense, which could struggle early on with only 4 starters back from last year. Note that the Badgers have already lost two projected starters up front in defensive ends Garrett Rand and Isaiahh Loudermilk. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse/Western Michigan UNDER

I just don't see Friday's opener between Syracuse and Western Michigan coming anywhere close to the total set here by the books. There's a perception out there that the OVER is a strong play when it comes to games involving Syracuse. A lot of that has to do with how poor they have been defensively and the fact that they run an up-tempo offense. 

It's played a large part in the books routinely inflating the total in the Orange's games and as a result the UNDER has been the wise investment. In fact, the UNDER is 18-6 over the first two seasons with Babers as head coach. That includes an 11-3 UNDER mark in the first half of the season. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is perfect 7-0 going back over the years when Syracuse is listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 

There will definitely be some games in which Syracuse puts up a big number, but I don't think it will be against the Broncos. Western Michigan only gave up 29 ppg last year (25.9 ppg if you exclude overtime) despite being in the first year of a new system. I think this defense is going to come out and surprise some people in this matchup, as they should feed off a rowdy home crowd that will excited for the rare opportunity to host a Power 5 team.

I also don't see the Broncos lighting up the scoreboard. Western Michigan has some nice pieces coming back, but lose their All-American left tackle and star running back Javion Franklin, who rushed for over 1,200 yards and 11 scores. The Orange were a lot better than the 32.2 ppg they ended up allowing for the season, as they only allowed 24.8 ppg over the first 9 games and injuries were the big reason for the decline. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Opening Day Total DESTRUCTION  on Wyoming/New Mexico St OVER

These two teams should have no problem going over this extremely low total for college football. The public take on Wyoming is that they are going to be way down offensively after losing an NFL-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. The thing is, the Cowboys offense didn't produce anywhere close to their potential last year, as they went from averaging 35.9 ppg in 2016 to only putting up 23.5 ppg. 

What gets overlooked with the loss of Allen is the fact that Wyoming has 9 of their other 10 starters back. The new starter will be red-shirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal, who beat out the senior Nick Smith (has 2 career starts), which I think can only be viewed as a positive on Vander Waal's potential. 

New Mexico State wil have 9 starters back on a defense that gave up just 29.7 ppg, but they won't have their dynamic pass rusher, Cedric Wilson (team-high 8.5 sacks last year), as out the first two games. Starting free safety Ron LaForce, who had a 104 tackles last year is also questionable to play with a foot injury. 

On top of that, I think the defense is a bit overrated for the Aggies, as last year's numbers were greatly aided by playing in the Sun Belt (Independent in 2018) and they did give up 35+ in half of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Mountain West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawaii/Colorado State OVER

These two teams combined for 72 points in Colorado State's 51-21 win at Hawaii last year and have now gone OVER the total in each of their last 4 meetings. I know both teams don't have a lot coming back on the offensive side of the ball, but keep in mind the total last year was 66, so that's been taken into account with this number. 

While Colorado State has to replace starting quarterback Nick Stevens, as well as their to p rusher and 4 of their top 5 receivers, the Rams have averaged at least 30 ppg in each of the first 3 years under head coach Mike Bobo. The loss of Stevens was also eased by the addition of Washington grad transfer KJ Carta-Samuels. 

Hawaii's offense would have been in good shape had Dru Brown not unexpectedly transferred to Oklahoma State, but I don't think it's going to be a massive drop off without him. The unit really can't be much worse than the one that only averaged 22.8 ppg last year. 

The other big key here is that while both offenses are working in new faces, neither of these teams have a lot coming back on the defensive side of the ball. Both stop units only have 5 starters back Colorado State is also working in a new defensive coordinator, so I definitely don't expect them to be sharp. 

All we need is for these two teams to average 2 touchdowns a quarter to secure a win and I think they have no problem doing that. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR  on Vikings OVER

I love the value here with the total in Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Vikings and Eagles. I know these are two teams are built around their defenses, but it's not asking a lot to hit 40 points with the talent these two have on the offensive side of the ball. 

Minnesota's offense is better than it gets credit for. The Vikings have score 23 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. They put up 29 last week against a solid Saints defense and I expect them to be around that 23-27 mark in this one. 

The Eagles come in averaging 27.8 ppg, but haven't been quite as potent with Nick Foles under center. They put up just 15 on the Falcons last week, but did have some success moving the ball. They just had to settle for a couple field goals and had two costly turnovers. Minnesota's defense is very good, but it's not as dominant on the road. 

All we need is to average 10-points a quarter to clear this mark and I think we get that and some more. OVER is 15-4 in the Vikings last 19 road games off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 games after posting a turnover margin of -1 or worse in two straight games. Take the OVER! 

4* Alabama/Georgia Total NO BRAINER on Georgia OVER

The public perception here is that this is going to be a very low-scoring national championship game, as we have two teams that want to run the football and are considered to be elite on the defensive side of the ball. What gets overlooked is the talent that both of these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and that 44 points is an extremely low total for today's college game. 

Another thing that I think people fall into a trap with is how great these teams look defensively in the semifinals and forget that they have had over a month to prepare for those opponents. People were saying the same thing the last two years with Alabama and Clemson and both of those turned into shootouts. In fact, each of the first 3 title games since the playoffs was introduced has seen at least 62 points. All we need to get a win here is 45. That's less than 2 touchdowns a quarter. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Orange Bowl TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin UNDER

I think we have everything you want for a low-scoring game here in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown between Wisconsin and Miami. Both these teams are limited offensively, but are dominant on the defensive side of the ball. 

It's no secret that the Badgers offense is built on their ground game. Wisconsin ranked 21st in rushing (229.2 ypg) compared to just 97th in passing (187 ypg). Miami has a very talented and athletic defensive front 7 and I think it will make it very hard for the Badgers to run the ball effectively. As for the Hurricane's offense, it's had more than their fair share of problems. In the ACC Championship Game against Clemson, they only managed 3 points and 197 total yards. Wisconsin comes in with the No. 1 ranked defense in the country, allowing just 253.3 ypg, ranking 2nd against the run and 4th against the pass. 

UNDER is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games, including a 3-1-1 mark in their last 5 bowl games. UNDER is also 16-5 in Miami's last 21 games overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 bowl games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Hawaii Bowl Total NO BRAINER on Fresno State UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve, which features the Houston Cougars and Fresno State Bulldogs. There's a lot to like in this matchup when it comes to a low-scoring game. 

The Bulldogs are a perfect team to back when it comes to an UNDER. The Bulldogs feature one of the best defenses in the country that not many people know about. Fresno State finished 9th in the country, giving up just 17.2 ppg and were 16th in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg. Keep in mind that's with playing non-conference games against the likes of Washington and Alabama, where they allowed a combined 89 points and 917 yards. Take away those two teams and this team only surrendered around 296 ypg and 12.3 ppg against their other 11 opponents. 

Houston averaged 28.4 ppg, but were far from a great offensive team and I think the best supporter of that is they only had 16 points against Arizona and 24 against Texas Tech. A lot of their high-scoring games in the AAC game against teams that like to play at a fast pace, which increase the number of possessions. I think the Cougars have a really hard time scoring here, especially with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson having left the program to join Dan Mullen at Florida. 

As good as the Fresno State defense has been, there offense is very limited and really struggled to score against the better teams they played. Houston has a legit defense, led by one of the best defensive players in the country in Ed Oliver and should be able to keep them in check. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Lions OVER

I think we are getting some decent value here on the OVER in Sunday's NFL total between the Lions and Bengals. The last two games for Cincinnati have been a complete embarrassment to the players and franchise. They lost at home to the Bears 7-33 and then followed that up with a 7-34 loss at Minnesota. Couple of things to note about those two performances. The first is the game against Chicago was a major letdown spot after their crushing loss to the Steelers at home the week before, which all but eliminated them from playoff contention. Then last week prior to their game against the Vikings it was reported that head coach Marvin Lewis was going to resign and I don't think it sat well with players that they had to learn of the news via the media. 

With all that behind them, I think we are going to see a much better effort from Cincinnati in what will be the final home game for Lewis. The players might not like him leaving, but he's done a lot to get this franchise back on the map and I think they will want his final home game to be one to remember. 

I'm really expecting a big game from the offense here. Keep in mind that it didn't help matters they were going up against two really good defenses in the Bears and Vikings. Detroit comes in ranked 27th in the league in total defense, giving up 362.3 ypg and are 28th against the pass (251.2 ypg). Look for Andy Dalton and A.J. Green to get going. 

As for the Lions offense, I think we see them put up some points as well. It's looking less and less likely that star linebacker Vontaze Burfict will suit up and he's the guy that really makes this defense click. There's also several other key guys on that side of the ball banged up. Detroit has scored at last 20 points in 7 straight games and should eclipse that mark here, which I think will be more than enough to push us over the mark. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Bowl TOTAL OF THE MONTH  on Toledo UNDER

I think we have an inflated total here in the Dollar General Bowl. The public is going to see two teams that have put up some big numbers offensively behind two talented senior quarterbacks in Toledo's Logan Woodside and Appalachian State's Tyler Lamb. No question these two signal callers are talented, but I don't think the defenses are getting near enough respect here. 

The Mountaineers only gave up 21.9 ppg and showed well in non-conference play against two quality opponents. They limited Georgia to just 31 and 368 total yards on the road and Wake Forest to just 20 points and 344 total yards. Toledo allowed 24 or fewer points in 8 of their 13 games and I think they are more than capable of slowing down Appalachian State. While the Mountaineers put up big numbers in Sun Belt play, they only scored 10-points in that game against Georgia and 19 against the Demon Deacons. 

Another key factor here is that these two teams are going to be extremely familiar with one another, as they actually played against each other last bowl season. A game that only featured 59 points and that was with a 28-point outburst by the two teams in the 3rd quarter. Note that 7 of those 59 points came on a kickoff return for a TD. I just think given the familiarity here there's a good chance we see an even lower-scoring affair this time around. Take the UNDER! 

3* Birmingham Bowl Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech OVER

I think we are getting some great value here on the total in Saturday's Birmingham Bowl that features Texas Tech and South Florida. These are two high-powered offenses that like to play at a fast pace and aren't exactly stout on the defensive side of the ball. 

The Red Raiders put up 34.3 ppg and were 17th in the country at 468.4 ypg. USF was even better at 38.3 ppg and ranked 9th in total offense at 508.7 ypg. We also have two really good passing attacks going up against defenses that are much better at stopping the run than they are the pass, which I believe is going to lead to a lot of big plays and quick scores. 

I believe a big reason this total isn't north of 70 is the fact that the Bulls have a good defense, at least on paper. USF only gave up 22.5 ppg and ranked 28th in the nation, allowing just 342.6 ypg. Those are very misleading numbers, as the Bulls played a cupcake schedule, which included a lot of bad teams that struggled to score, including San Jose State, UConn, Illinois, Cincinnati and Tulane. The one legit offense they faced was in their last game of the season against UCF and they allowed 49 points in a game that featured 91 combined points. I think that's a lot closer to what we are going to see here. Take the OVER! 

3* Bahamas Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on UAB UNDER

This might seem like a low total given that Ohio comes in ranked 8th in the country at 40.6 ppg and are facing a UAB team that averages a respectable 29.6 ppg. I just think that given the style of  play of these two teams they will struggle to eclipse this total. 

Both of these teams are are looking to establish the run and don't offer much of a passing threat. The Bobcats ranked 17th in rushing at 244.2 ypg, compared to just 97th in passing at 186.8 ypg. The Blazers were 37th in rushing at 190.2 ypg and 106th in passing at 174.4 ypg. I just don't think that there will be enough possessions for these two teams to light up the scoreboard. There's typically a lot less explosive plays on the ground than there are for teams that like to air it out and throw it deep.

At the same time, by running so much, the clock is going to be running constantly. Add in the extra time that each team has had to prepare for these fairly one dimensional offenses and I wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a defensive battle. Keep in mind that these two have to average more than two touchdowns a quarter to eclipse this mark. 

UNDER was 7-1 in the Blazers last 8 games this season and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 8-3-1 in the Bobcats last 12 games played on a neutral field and 18-7-2 in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* Boca Raton Bowl Total NO-BRAINER  on Akron OVER

There's a strong tendency for these bowl games to go OVER the total and I think we are going to see a very high scoring game tonight between Akron and FAU. We are expecting the Owls to do the heavy lifting here, though we also expect the Zips to have a strong showing on the offensive side of the ball. 

Florida Atlantic comes in averaging 39.8 ppg and have a big advantage with this bowl game being played on their home field, where they put up 42 ppg and 535 ypg in the regular season. Akron simply doesn't have the defense to slow down this offensive attack. The Zips are 100th in the country against the run, giving up 197.2 ypg and will be facing an Owls offensive attack that ranked 6th in the nation with 283.2 ypg on the ground. FAU is also a fast-striking offense and it wouldn't shock me to see them have close to 40 points in the 3rd quarter. 

Akron's offense isn't anything special, but I think they can score close to 30 here, and don't be surprised if a lot of those points come late after this one is out of hand. The Zips have a decent passing attack that likes to throw deep, which should lead to some quick scores, as they face an FAU defense that was much better against the run than the pass. The Owls finished a mere 92nd against the pass, giving up 242.5 ypg. Give me the OVER! 

3* Falcons/Bucs MNF Total NO BRAINER on Falcons OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the mark set by the books here tonight. Typically division games are a little more low scoring, but that's simply not the case with these two teams. Each of the last 3 games in this series have seen these two teams combine for at least 54 points, including a recent meeting in Week 12 at Atlanta and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at QB for the Bucs. 

Jameis Winston has since returned to the line. While turnovers continue to be a problem for Winston, there's a good chance if those mistakes happen tonight, it's going to set up the Falcons with a short field. Either way, I think the Bucs offensively are going to put up a big number and they are going to need it, as the Falcons should score early and often. In that recent meeting in Week 12, Atlanta had 516 total yards and had 20 points at the half. 

OVER is 5-1 the last 6 times the Falcons have been on Monday Night Football. OVER is also 15-5-1 in Atlanta's last 21 off a win and 10-0-1 in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pats OVER

I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks in Sunday's huge AFC showdown between the Steelers and Patriots. Forget about how bad New England's offense looked last week against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. The Patriots didn't show up ready to play and Brady played about as poorly as he has all season. The great players almost always rebound from a bad showing like that with one of their best games. Let's also not forget he was without a big time weapon in tight end Rob Gronkowski. 

I also think this Steelers defense is no where close to what it was early on in the season, as they recently lost their best player on that side of the ball in Ryan Shazier. He doesn't get the respect as some of the big time players in this league, but I think his importance to this defense is similar to that of Luke Kuechley with the Panthers. In the very first game without him last week against the Ravens, they let Baltimore put up 38 points and nearly 415 yards of offense. That's not a good Ravens offense and keep in mind they held Baltimore to just 9 points and 288 total yards on the road earlier this season. 

On the flip side of this, I think we are going to see Big Ben and the Steelers offense have a lot of success here. While the Patriots defense has been playing better, they too have lost some key players on defense and have several others who are questionable to play this week. I think we get more than enough here from Pittsburgh to push this well past the total set by the books. Take the OVER! 

3* Broncos/Colts TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Colts OVER

I really like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's NFL action that has the Colts hosting the Broncos. It's no secret that Denver has a great defense. Those that forgot, the Broncos reminded them of how good they are last week against the Jets, who they shutout and held to 100 total yards. I believe that strong effort combined with the Colts struggles on offense has this total way to low. 

The biggest thing here is that neither team has anything to play for right now and it's no secret how much these players hate these Thursday night games. I just don't see either team being all that motivated in this one and we continue to see teams struggle defensively in these Thursday games.

As good as the numbers say Denver's defense is, they had allowed at least 20 points in 8 straight prior to last week and are giving up a staggering 30.5 ppg. As far as the Colts defense is concerned, they aren't very good. I also think we see both teams take a lot more shots down the field with this game not meaning anything. Wouldn't be shocked at all if these two hit 50 points. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Giants UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the total for Sunday's NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Giants. With last week's impressive 38-14 win over the Redskins, Dallas improved to 6-6, keeping their playoff hopes alive. New York lost 17-24 at Oakland and following the loss the team fired head coach Ben McAdoo. They also stated that after not starting against the Raiders, Eli Manning would take back the starting job. 

It might seem like the Giants are a mess right now, but I'm pretty confident they are going to show up to play on Sunday. Simply put, these NFC East teams hate each other and New York would love nothing more than to play a part in keeping the Cowboys out of the playoffs. I expect a huge effort here from the Giants and I think that defense can keep the Cowboys in check. Keep in mind that Dallas had really struggled offensively in the first 3 games without Ezekiel Elliot and a big reason they scored 38 against the Redskins is Washington was decimated with injuries and playing on the road in a short week of rest. 

As for the Giants' offense, there's not a lot this unit can do right now. No matter how hard they play, they are still going to be extremely limited on that side of the ball. They still don't have any threat of a running game and the offensive line can pass block. I look for a highly motivated Dallas defense to keep them in check and for this to finish well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Lions OVER

I think we are getting some great value here on the total in Sunday's NFL action between the Lions and Bucs. Both these teams can score points in a hurry. Detroit's one of the higher scoring teams in the league at 26.2 ppg. Tampa Bay comes in averaging 23.3 ppg over their last 3 and the big key here is they will be going up against a Lions defense that allows 25.7 ppg. OVER is 10-4 in the Lions last 14 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 5-0 in their last 5 vs the NFC. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Texans OVER

Everyone knows the Texans aren't anywhere close to the same offensive team with Tom Savage at quarterback. After their struggles on MNF last week against the Ravens, I don't know that the perception can get much worse with Houston's offense. No one is going to be in a hurry to place a bet on the OVER in a game involving the Texans, especially against a pretty average offense like Tennessee. I think the books are well aware of this and have set the total too low for this matchup. 

While Savage threw 3 picks and the Texans only scored 16 points against the Ravens, I think they showed some positive signs. Savage did complete 22 of 37 for 252 yards, as he was able to get something going with DeAndre Hopkins, who had 7 catchers for 125. Keep in mind that was against a Baltimore secondary that is giving up the 2nd fewest yards. The week before Houston put up 31 on the Cardinal. Savage had 230 yards and Hopkins had 4 for 76. The Titans come in ranked 20th against the pass, giving up 234.3 ypg. I think Savage has a decent day here and the Texans score well into the 20's. 

I also think Tennessee's offense will produce here. The Titans are a different offensive team on their home field, as they are scoring 26.4 ppg at home this season. Houston's defense is good but not great and I think they get a little too much credit on that side of the ball. IN their last two games they let an awful Baltimore offense put up 23 and the week before gave up 21 to a Cardinals team that was starting a 3rd stringer at QB. Marcus Mariota should play well and it wouldn't shock me if the Titans hung a 30 spot here. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Wisconsin UNDER

I like the value here the total in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game between Ohio State and Wisconsin. I just think the mark here has been set way too high for this matchup. I know the Badgers have had an easy schedule and haven't faced a lot of great offenses, but this defense has been up to the task and I think they are for real on that side of the ball. As good as the Buckeyes have been offensively, I think they struggle here. 

While Ohio State put up great offensive numbers on the season, they did a lot of their damage against bad teams. This is also a team that only scored 16 on a Oklahoma defense that allowed 52 in a game and 30 or more 5 times. I just think that if you can take away the Buckeyes ground game, there offense struggles to move the ball. J.T. Barrett is not a great pocket passer and gets a lot of his big plays throwing deep against teams that have to load the box to stop the run. Wisconsin ranked 1st in the country, giving up only 80.5 ypg on the ground and held teams to just 2.6 yards/carry. 

The other key here is that even if the Buckeyes are able to move, I don't think they score enough to push this over the mark. That's because I think the Badgers are going to have a miserable time running the ball. Wisconsin relies even more than Ohio State on the running game and the Buckeyes are simply too good up front on the defensive line to get pushed around. Urban Meyer and his defense will take away the running game and I just don't think Hornibrook can make enough plays for the Badgers to put together more than a few scoring drives. Take the UNDER 52! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Duke OVER

I think we are getting some decent value here with this total, as I see these two teams combining for at least 60 points on Saturday. Wake Forest has scored at least 30 in 4 straight games, including a 64 point outburst at Syracuse a couple weeks ago. Duke's offense snapped out of a major funk with 43 in their last game against Georgia Tech. With not a ton here for the Demon Deacons to play for, I don't see them being at the top of their game defensively here and they have  struggled on that side of the ball, giving up 38.3 ppg over their last 3. 

We also have a strong system in play. The OVER is 144-81 (64%) in the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 56.5 to 63 in the month of November with a team that's failed to cover 2 of their last 3. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on MISSOURI UNDER

I just think we are seeing an inflated total here based on Missouri lighting up the scoreboard over their last 5 games, but those all came against either bad teams or teams that have thrown in the towel on this season. I think they have a lot harder time scoring on the road against a motivated Razorback defense that will have a little extra fight on senior day. 

Most people focus on all the points Missouri is scoring, but they have been lights out defensively as well of late. The Tigers have held each of their last 4 opponents to 17 points or less. Arkansas is far from a potent offense and aren't exactly clicking right now, having scored just 31 in their last two games combined. 

UNDER is 12-3 in Arkansas' last 15 home games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. UNDER is also 10-2 in Missouri's last 12 off a SU win by more than 20 points, 14-5 in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record and 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Thanksgiving Total NO BRAINER on Ole Miss UNDER

We are getting great value here with the UNDER in Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown between these two SEC West and in-state rivals. This total is calling for these two teams to score close to 70 points and I just don't see it happening. 

Mississippi State's defense didn't play great last week and still managed to hold Arkansas to just 21 points. It continued a trend of dominance on defense against the lesser teams in the SEC and there's no question that Ole Miss falls into that category. Not to mention we just saw the Rebels struggle against a quality defense at home last week, scoring just 24 against Texas A&M and this Bulldog defense is a class above the Aggies. 

Another key factor here is that the defensive intensity is going to be turned up a notch for both sides with this being a rivalry game. I know Mississippi State put up 55 on the Rebels last year, but that should only add fuel to fire for the Rebels and I'm willing to bank they show up and keep the Bulldogs from putting up anywhere close to that many points. 

UNDER is 22-8 in the Rebels last 30 road games after winning 2 of their last 3. It's also 20-8 in Mississippi State's last 28 off a came where they won but failed to cover as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ball State UNDER

I know the Cardinals defense hasn't been any good and that the OVER has cashed in each of Ball State's last 5 games. I believe it's created some value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's game against Miami (OH). The big key here is I just don't see the RedHawks being motivated at all for this one, as last week's 24-27 home loss to Eastern Michigan eliminated Miami (OH) from becoming bowl eligible.

The RedHawks could also be without their top two running backs, as both Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young are listed as questionable. Without the Miami putting up a big number, it's going to be hard for this one to eclipse the mark set by the books, as this Ball State offense is one of the worst in the country, as they come in averaging just 18.9 ppg and 331 ypg. I look for both teams to just go through the motions here, as the players likely can't wait to get this season over with. 

UNDER is also 11-1 in the RedHawks last 12 off a SU loss and 25-9 in their last 34 against bad defensive teams who are allowing 31 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Dolphins OVER

I just think this total has been set to low for Sunday's non-conference matchup between two teams that have been major disappointments in 2017. The Dolphins have lost 3 straight and are now just 4-5 and the Bucs are even worse at 3-6. Tampa Bay without starting quarterback Jameis Winston and the Dolphins viewed as one of the worst offense teams in the league. I believe that's playing a big part in this low total, which has created value with two bad defenses facing off. 

Miami has given up 40 or more in two of their last 3 games and have allowed at least 27 in 4 straight. This is the perfect defense for Tampa Bay's struggling offense to get back on track. As for the Bucs defense, they looked good last week against the Jets, but have allowed 30 or more 4 times already and this horrible Dolphins offense just put up 21 on the Panthers in Carolina and 24 the week before against the Raiders. It's not as bad as people think, and they due are poised for a bit of a breakout performance. 

Going back to last season the OVER is now 10-1 in Dolphins' games played in the 2nd half of the season. It's also a perfect 7-0 in Miami's last 7 home games after playing their previous game on the road. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Thurs TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo OVER

For whatever reason the books have repeatedly set the bar way to low on the total for Ball State games. Last week their total was 49.5 against Northern Illinois and the game finished with 80 combined points. The game before they combined for 70 with a total of 47.5. The game before that saw 73 with a total of 55.5 and the contest before that their was 65 with a total of 48.5. 

I think we are once again going to see the total fly over the mark and it all stems from the Cardinals defense. Ball State is horrific on that side of the ball and even average offenses like Buffalo can score at will against it. The Cardinals have allowed 55 or more points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Buffalo just scored 38 last week and had 68 in a game earlier this season against Northern Illinois. I think the Bulls score close to 50 and we should at least get 14 from the home team. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Chargers UNDER

I believe we have a great matchup here for a low scoring game that will finish well below the mark set by the books. By now most everyone is aware of how good this Jacksonville defense has been this season. The Jaguars lead the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 14.6 ppg and are 3rd in total defense, allowing just 281.3 ypg. 

The key here is that defense is built to stop the pass, as they are allowing a league-low 156.4 passing yards/game. Rivers and the Chargers' offense is built around the passing attack and that's evident by the fact that they rank 25th in rushing (88.9 ypg) and 12th in passing (243.9 ypg). I look for LA to have a really difficult time moving the ball here. 

As good as the defense has been, the Jaguars don't put the same fear into opposing teams when their offense has the ball. Jacksonville's primary focus is to just not lose the game on this side, as they are looking to grind it out by running the ball. That's perfect for a low-scoring game, as they are going to up up the clock and limit the possessions. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS 

3* NCAAF Thurs. Total DESTROYER on Ball State UNDER

This is simply too many points for Thursday's MAC matchup that has Northern Illinois hosting Ball State. The reason we are seeing such a big total is the fact that the Cardinals have allowed 50+ points in each of their last 3 games, but the key here is the Huskies just aren't a dynamic offensive team, as they are only averaging 26.7 ppg. Conditions are also not going to be ideal for scoring, as temps will be right around freezing with a blistering 10+ mph wind. 

At the same time the Ball State offense is atrocious, as they come in averaging a mere 12.4 ppg on the road. Scoring won't come any easier against this Northern Illinois defense, which is only giving up 15.7 ppg at home this season and have been dominant against bad teams like the Cardinals. 

UNDER is 6-1 in the Huskies last 7 home games and a staggering 13-3 in their last 16 games played in the month of November.

Adding to this is a great system where we look to take the UNDER with bad teams like Ball State who have struggled to cover. UNDER is 80-38 (68%) going back to 1992 when you have a team that comes in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 playing on a Thursday. Take the UNDER! 

4* Lions/Packers MNF Total NO BRAINER on Packers UNDER

I think we are going to see a defensive battle here on Monday Night Football between these two NFC North rivals. I also think we are getting some value here because of how high scoring this series has been, with each of the last 3 meetings seeing at least 50 combined points. 

That was with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB for Green Bay. Without Rodgers under center the Packers simply don't have the offensive fire-power to win in a shootout. Keep in mind they scored just 10 points against Minnesota when Rodgers suffered the injury early in that contest and just 17 the next week at home against the Saints. I look for Green Bay to come out looking to establish the run and play ball control, which should be easier than it has been with some key guys returning on the offensive line. 

As for the Packers defense, I think they show up in a big way here at home in a prime time game. Not that Green Bay wasn't already familiar with Detroit, but it will only help the defense given they have had a full two weeks to prepare for this contest coming off their bye. This is also a good matchup for the Packers, who are much better against the pass than they are at stopping the run. Detroit is built around Matthew Stafford and the 12th ranked passing attack, as they are just 28th in rushing at 82.1 ypg. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Cowboys UNDER

When you look at this matchup on paper you would think these two will fly over the total, as you have the Cowboys coming in averaging 28.3 ppg and the Chiefs even better at 29.5 ppg. I see it the exact opposite and expect a much more tightly contested battle where both teams try to play keep away by using their high-powered running attacks to control the time of possession. 

Dallas shouldn't have any problem doing that now that Ezekiel Elliot has been cleared to play. KC's run defense is one of the worst in the league, giving up 131.1 ypg (28th). As for the Chiefs, they got a pretty special young running back of their own in Kareem Hunt. He's been slowed down a bit of late on the ground, but should be able to get going here as the Chiefs are finally getting back to 100% heath on the o-line. At the same time, KC does a lot of dink and dunk stuff with their offense that works just like running the ball, as their drives take up a lot of time. 

UNDER is 16-7 in the Chiefs last 23 games in the month of November, 24-7 in their last 31 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 25 or more in 2 straight games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rams UNDER

With both the Rams and Giants coming off of their bye weeks, I expect a much lower scoring game than we would have got had these two been playing on normal rest. Each has had two weeks to prepare for the other side and that's a big advantage for these defenses. I also think there's some hidden value here with New York's defense, as they are very familiar with the schemes of McVay and the Rams from his time with the Redskins. 

As for the Giants offense, there's not a lot to be excited about. New York's down a couple of starters on the offensive line in center Weston Richburg and left guard Justin Pugh. Even when healthy the unit hasn't been. That combined with no threat of a running game and a passing attack that's missing their two star wide outs and it's going to be hard for New York to sustain drives against this improving LA stop unit. 

UNDER is a rock solid 9-2 in the Rams last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 11-3 in their last 14 games played on field turf. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Giants last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Diego State UNDER

I don't see this one coming close to the total that's been set by the books, as Saturday's late night MWC action features two of the worst offenses in the country in San Diego State and San Jose State. The Aztecs are 83rd in the country in scoring at 26.2 ppg and the Spartans are 120th at a dreadful 18.9 ppg. San Diego State also ranks 98th in total offense and San Jose State is 117th. 

Now I could see the Aztecs eclipsing their average, as this Spartans defense isn't very good. However, I don't see them going off, as they are struggling on the offensive side of the ball right now, scoring just 45 points in their last 3 games combined. 

At the same time, we are still going to be in great shape if San Diego State has a big offensive game, as there's a decent chance the Spartans don't reach double-digits. The Aztecs have a top tier defense that is allowing just 15.2 ppg and 255 ypg at home this season. San Jose State has also scored 13 or fewer points in 4 separate games this year. 

UNDER is 27-11-1 in the Aztecs last 39 games vs a team with a losing record, 31-14 in their last 45 road games after going UNDER the total in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games when they come in having failed to cover 2 out of their last 3. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Oregon UNDER

I think we are going to see a much more competitive and low-scoring game than what the books are anticipating. While it's still got some holes, this Oregon defense is greatly improved over last year's team, which allowed 41.4 ppg and 518 ypg. So far through 9 games the Ducks are allowing just 29.2 ppg and 370 ypg. 

I also like the matchup here for Oregon. Washington's offense is built around their running game and that plays right into the strength of the Ducks defense, which comes in 16th nationally, allowing just 117.6 ypg. We can also expect a max effort here from Oregon, as they are out for revenge from last year's embarrassing 21-70 home loss to the Huskies. 

As for the Ducks offense, they could get back starting quarterback Justin Herbert, but I don't see them lighting up the scoreboard on the road against an elite Washington defense, which comes in 4th in the country, giving up just 12.1 ypg and 2nd in total defense at 236.2 ypg. They also matchup well with Oregon's run-first attack, as they are 2nd in the nation vs the run, giving up just 71.6 ypg and are only allowing 2.2 yards/carry. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Stanford UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER given the conditions here are going to be ideal for a low-scoring game. The expected game-time temperature is just above freezing at 34 degrees and there's a chance for freezing rain. That's certainly not ideal for a Washington State offense that is more reliant on their passing game than any other team in the country. The Cougars are 129th out of 130 teams in rushing at 84.1 ypg and lead the nation in passing at 386.7 ypg. 

At the same time, the strength of this Stanford defense is their secondary, which has allowed a mere 159 yards through the air in their last two games and held each of their last 4 opponents to under 240 yards passing. 

As for the Cardinals offense I think there's a good chance they are once again without star running back Bryce Love. He's listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision, but hasn't been practicing and even if he does play figures to be at less than 100%. Stanford's offense was putrid without him in their last game against Oregon State, scoring just 15 points. This is also a very good Washington State defense, that ranks 16th in total defense, giving up only 309 ypg and are allowing just 16.8 ppg at home. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on UAB UNDER

I just don't think there's enough offensive fire-power here to eclipse this mark set by the books. Rice is simply one of the worst offensive teams in the country. The Owls are 129th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 13.1 ppg and 121st in total offense at just 315.7 ypg. UAB isn't a great defensive team by any means, but are good enough to shut down Rice. The Blazers are only giving up 18.7 ppg at home. 

The biggest thing here is neither of these teams are any good at throwing the ball, which means a lot of run plays. That will keep the clock running and limit the number of possessions for both sides. Rice is 120th in passing at 148.4 ypg and UAB is 98th at 188.9 ypg. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 home games and 40 in their last 4 overall. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Owls last 6 off a game where they didn't cover and 3-0-1 in their last 4 on the road. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Houston UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Saturday's AAC matchup that has Houston hosting East Carolina. I just feel the total here is way to high for this matchup. East Carolina's defense has allowed 50+ on 4 different occasions, but are coming off their best showing, holding BYU to 17 in their last game. 

The key here is the Cougars just aren't an explosive offensive team. They have only eclipsed 30 points in 3 of their 8 games this season and have not scored over 40 once. That includes a game against Texas Tech's horrific defense where they only managed 24 points.

Most of the teams that have exposed the Pirates defense have done so through the air. Houston has become more of a run first team of late, rushing 40 or more times in each of their last 4 games. Another key here for ECU's defense is they have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off their bye. I think that will be more than enough to keep this under the mark. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Cougars last 13 home games off a win, 20-9 in their last 29 when listed as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games on Saturday. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO BRAINER on FAU/Marshall UNDER

I think we are getting an inflated total here in Friday's C-USA East showdown between FAU and Marshall. Lane Kiffin and the Owls have been lighting it up on the offensive side of the ball inside conference play at 51.7 ppg. On the other side Marshall is coming off a game against FIU that had 71 combined points and have scored 30+ in each of their last 3. 

The books have no choice but to set the total here higher than it should be, as the public is going to look to pound the over with this being a prime time game. What's getting overlooked is just how big of a game this is. The winner of this game will be in a great position to win the East Division and play in the C-USA title game. 

I'm not saying these two teams aren't going to put up points, just not at the rate needed to eclipse this total. Unlike a lot of high-scoring teams that sling it all over the place, FAU is built around their rushing attack, which ranks 8th in the country at 295.9 ypg. I'm willing to bet they don't run all over the Herd, who own a top tier defense for a non-Group of 5 team. Marshall ranks 15th in scoring defense (17.6 ppg) and 24th in total defense (325.6 ypg). 

UNDER is 21-8 in Marshall's last 29 road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3, 11-3 in their last 14 in the second half of the season and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take the UNDER! 

5* Steelers/Lions SNF VEGAS INSIDER on Steelers UNDER

I think we are going to see an offense struggle in Sunday's showdown between the Steelers and Lions. Detroit is going to be ready for everything Pittsburgh throws at them, as they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and you also have to factor in the fact that the Steelers offense has historically not performed well on the road under Roethlisberger. I think that trend continues here, as the Lions have the 7th ranked run defense (94.3 ypg), which should allow them to keep Bell in check and force Big Ben to beat him with his arm. 

On the other side of this, Pittsburgh might have the best defense in the league. The only two games they have allowed more than 20 points was the 23 they allowed in Chicago and 30 to the Jaguars. Note that 7 of those points in the game against the Bears came in OT and 14 of the Jacksonville's 30 were a result of two defensive touchdowns. 

UNDER is 20-9 over the last 3 seasons in games involving the Steelers with a total of 42.5 to 49 points. UNDER is also 11-3 in Pittsburgh's last 14 road games and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 off a win by 14 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Cowboys UNDER 

I think the books have set the bar too high for Sunday's NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Redskins. These two teams don't like each other and some consider the biggest rivalry in the league. This is also a huge game for both teams, as each comes into this one at 3-3. 

I know the Redskins just gave up 34 to Eagles last week, but the defense will be getting a big boost with the return of star corner Josh Norman. Not only is he an elite shutdown corner, who can shutdown Dez Bryant, but the entire defense feeds off his intensity. 

As for Washington's offense, I think this week could be a struggle. We already know that starting center Spencer Long and they could also be without starting left tackle Trent Williams and elite right guard Brandon Scherff. That's going to make it hard for the Cousins to get the passing game going. I think both teams will focus on the running game in this one, which should limit the possessions and keep us well below the mark. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Cowboys last 19 road games and 9-1 in their last 10 on the road when they come in off a game that went OVER the total. UNDER is also 32-17 in the Redskins last 49 after 3 or more straight losses and 4-1 in their last 5 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bears OVER 

I could see some people being scared of taking the OVER here given how bad the Bears offense was last week against the Panthers. Chicago totaled just 153 yards and had a mere 5 first downs (won 17-3). The thing is, even bad offenses tend to put up some points when take the field in the superdome. The OVER is 12-3-1 in the Saints last 16 home games (2-0 this season). It's also 11-1 in the Saints last 12 games regardless of location when they are facing a team with a losing record. 

The biggest thing to keep in mind with the Bears horrific offensive showing last week, is the Panthers are an elite defense. While the Saints have been playing better on that side of the ball, the shutout they had on the Dolphins looks a lot less impressive after Miami's showing on Thursday. New Orleans still ranks 20th against the run (114.2 ypg) and 21st against the pass (236.8 ypg). 

Chicago's defense has quietly put up great numbers this year, but have struggled to play well defensively on the road. The Bears have played 3 road games and are giving up nearly 30 ppg (29.3). Last time the Saints played at home they put up 52 on Detroit and I expect another big number here to push this well over the mark. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Chargers OVER

With the UNDER cashing in 3 straight Patriots games, I think we are getting some great value here with a total less than 50. I know the results are a lot better, I just think they are a bit misleading. The defense turnaround started with a Thursday night game at Tampa, where Belichick's gameplan was perfect on the Bucs offense. They then held the Jets to 17, which doesn't say a lot. They then held the Falcons to just 7 on SNF last week. The thing is, Atlanta left at least 13 points on the board. 

I think a closer resemblance of the first 4 weeks with the Patriots defense here against Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Rivers should have a big game here. He runs the leagues 8th ranked passing attack at 251.3 ypg and will be facing the league's worst ranked pass defense, which is giving up a staggering 310.3 ypg. 

As for the Patriots offense, I think they have a big game of their own. New England is 6th in scoring at 27.9 ppg and lead the league with 410.7 ypg. Brady is going to get his and the Pats should be able to pick up big chunks on the ground against the Charger's league worst run defense (140.6 ypg). 

OVER is 22-7 in the Patriots last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record, 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win by more than 14 points. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Vikings OVER

I just feel there's too much value here with the OVER in Sunday's game between the Vikings and Browns in London. More times than not, defenses have struggled to play up to their potential in these games overseas.

I have major concerns with Cleveland's stop unit, as I just can't imagine that the Browns are treating this like a business trip given they are going nowhere at 0-7. I don't think it's out of the question that Minnesota could get this total on their own. Note that Cleveland's defense has struggled playing away from home in the states. They allowed 24 to the anemic Ravens offense, 31 to the Colts and 33 to the Texans in their 3 road games. 

As bad as the Browns offense has been, I think we can get close to double-digits from them in this one. As good as Minnesota's defense has been, they have allowed at least 10 points in every game. I think they have a couple lapses here, as it will be hard for them to give Cleveland their full attention with all the distractions. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER ON BYU OVER 

These aren't exactly two teams most would consider taking the OVER with. BYU hasn't scored more than 24 in a game all season and San Jose State's 26 last week at Hawaii was it's most since scoring 34 in their opener against Cal Poly. 

It's not so much the offenses that I'm focused on but the defenses. This is the perfect opponent for the Cougars to take out some of that frustration on offense. The Spartans have allowed at least 27 in each of their last 6 games, 4 times allowing 40+. 

At the same time, BYU's defense has allowed 30+ two straight and 4 of their last 5. I don't see it getting any better for either of these teams down the stretch. Last time out, both teams suffered their 7th loss of the season, which pretty much wraps up any hopes of making a bowl game. I look for a bit of a shootout with this one going well past the mark. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cal UNDER

I expect a much lower-scoring game than what the books are calling for with this total. Cal is coming off a 44-45 loss to Arizona, which had a combined 99 points, but only 62 of those came in regulation. The week before they held Washington State's potent attack to just 3 points. Colorado was just shutout at Washington State and have now scored 23 or fewer in half of their games. 

I just think we have two defenses that have underachieved going up against a couple of limited offenses. Both teams are coming off a loss and still need two wins to become bowl eligible, so the intensity should be there on the defensive side. I got a little more concern with Colorado mentally, but being at home will help them. 

When Cal is coming off a high-scoring game like we have here, history struggling recommends playing the UNDER, as it's 33-18 in their last 51 after a contest that finished OVER the total set by the books. UNDER is also 16-5 in Colorado's last 21 games off a loss by more than 20 points and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Stanford OVER

The books have set the bar way to low for Thursday's Pac-12 action that has Stanford visiting Oregon State. I think the public perception here is that the Cardinal are going to just go into Corvallis and have their way with the Beavers. While I think Stanford will be able to put some points on the board, I think their defense will struggle in this spot. 

Oregon State comes in just 1-6 and are ranked 113th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 21.3 ppg. That's going to make it tough on Stanford to take them seriously, especially with a road game at Washington State looming next week. The thing is the Cardinal defense isn't great, they 98th against the run (195.4 ypg) and 68th vs the pass (220.6 ypg). 

Oregon State just played their first game after Gary Anderson stepped down and the offense took on a new life against Colorado. The Beavers piled on 280 rushing yards on 46 attempts (6.1 yards/carry) and senior Darell Garretson had his best game by a long shot with 289 yards on 20 of 37 passing. That performance will have them playing with a lot of confidence tonight and I expect a number of big plays to push this final score up closer to 70. Take the OVER! 

3* Dolphins/Ravens TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Dolphins UNDER

I can see how some might be tempted to go the other way given this being such a low number, but I just think this is going to be one of those ugly games where neither team can get anything going offensively. 

I mean these are two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Baltimore is scoring just 18.6 ppg and are 31st in total offense at 377.5 ypg. As bad as that looks, Miami is even worse at 15.3 ppg and 32nd in total offense at 261.9 ypg. 

I know the Ravens defense has not played great the past few weeks, but this is an offense they can handle and Miami's down to backup QB Matt Moore. The Dolphins defense had a bit of a slip up last week against the Jets but overall have been really good this year and should have no problem against the anemic Ravens offense. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Dolphins last 4 road games, 8-0-1 in their last 9 games played on Thursday and 6-1 in their last 6 overall. UNDER 11-5 in Ravens last 16 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 after a game in which they totaled less than 250 total yards. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan OVER 

These two teams combined for 55 points a season ago and 70 the year before that. I know we have two good defensive teams, but let's not completely discount the offensive side of the ball. I think we get more than enough scoring here to push this past the small number set by the books. 

Northern Illinois' offense is coming in with a ton of confidence after putting up 48 points and more than 500 total yards last week at Bowling Green. Eastern Michigan scored just 17, but had nearly 460 yards of total offense (done in by 3 turnovers). With both defenses playing on short rest and the Huskies potentially not giving the Eagles their full attention with Toledo on deck, I think we could be closer to 60 than 50. 

OVER is 30-16 in Eastern Michigan's last 46 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 10-2 in their last 12 road games against an opponent that's outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Seahawks UNDER

Don't be fooled by the Giants putting up 23 points last week against Denver. It was the Broncos mistakes on offense that got them to that mark. Denver turned it over 3 times, including an interception that the Giants defense returned for a score. They also had drives of 30 yards or less for two of their three field goals. Broncos basically handed them 13 points and they only scored 23. They finished the game with just 266 total yards and 12 first downs. 

I don't see them getting so fortunate with the turnovers against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, which I think is going to have this one finishing well below the mark here. While the offense will struggle to do much of anything against a Seattle stop unit that is well rested and prepared coming off a bye, their defense should be able to hold their own against a Seahawks offense that has scored fewer than 17 points in 3 of their 5 games so far this season.

Last time out Seattle was +3 in the turnover margin with the Rams and that's worth noting, as the Seahawks are 16-5 under Pete Carroll when playing on the road after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Giants last 6 at home and 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Jags/Colts UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Sunday's AFC East matchup between the Colts and Jaguars. It's no secret the Colts aren't an explosive offensive team. Indy ranks just 28th in the NFL at 301.2 ypg. I don't see them getting it going against a good Jaguars defense. 

At the same time, I think the Colts defense will be able to hold their own here against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has no trust in Blake Bortles and are relying solely on their running game this season. It's a big reason they aren't lighting up the scoreboard. After scoring just 17 at home last week against the Rams, they have scored 20 or less 3 times this season. Their style of play also keeps the clock moving, which limits the possessions for both teams and favors a lower-scoring game. 

Division games often are also a lot more lower-scoring than you would expect. It's certainly been the case when these two face off. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in the series with a perfect 6-0 mark in Indianapolis. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH  on Bills/Bucs UNDER

The books have set the total for this one too high. Buffalo has a stingy defense and are a run-first team, which has led to the UNDER cashing in 4 of their 5 games and the lone matchup that eclipsed the total had just 42 points with a total of 40.

That defense leads the league allowing just 14.8 ppg and figures to be at it's best here with the Bills coming off a bye and facing a banged up Jameis Winston, who is dealing with a shoulder injury but is expected to play. 

Tampa Bay's defense has struggle at times this year, but that's was more of a result of guys getting injured than the talent on the field. The Bucs are as healthy as they have been on that side of the ball and should have no problem here limiting a below-average Buffalo offense that ranks 31st in total offense (271.6 ypg) and 27th in scoring (17.8 ppg). Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play Colorado OVER 

I think we are getting great value here on the total at just 52 points. Forget what happened last week with Washington State. When the Cougars fail to show up for a game they do it in style. Just look at last year's bowl game against Minnesota and 17-45 loss to rival Washington. While the loss to Cal hurts, they still are in great shape to win the North and play in the Pac-12 title game. I expect this team to rebound and to do so in a big way. 

The Cougars have scored 45+ 3 times already this season and had 30+ in every other game prior to the letdown to the Bears. Cal's not an easy place to play and there's no reason to think they don't show up at home against a Colorado defense that has allowed 33 to Oregon State and 45 to Arizona in their last two games. 

I also think we get plenty of help from the Buffaloes on the scoreboard. This Washington State defense is good but not great. Colorado's offense is playing with a ton of confidence and I think they are going to keep pace with Washington St and make this a game into the 2nd half. 

OVER is 20-4 in Colorado's last 24 road games after 2 straight games with 1 or fewer turnovers and 5-1-1 in Washington State's last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Late Night Bookie DESTROYER Wyoming OVER

This is about as low of a total as you are going to see in college and I just don't think it's warranted. I know Boise State's defense has held BYU to 7 points and San Diego St to 14 in their last two games, but those aren't exactly high-powered offenses. The game prior to that they gave up 42 at home to Virginia. Wyoming's offense struggled early in the year, but have scored 28 in each of their last 3 games and put up 30 in a win over Boise State last year. 

Cowboys quarterback Josh Allen, who is an NFL prospect, threw for 274 yards and 3 scores last year against the Broncos. He's thrown the ball well in each of his last two games and I think he has another big game here. 

Wyoming's defense has good numbers but have struggled against the better offenses they have faced. They haven't held Boise State under 28 points since 2007 and if the Broncos hit 28, we only need 16 from Wyoming to eclipse this mark. I think we get more than that from Wyoming, who I could see winning this game outright. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Arizona Under 

This one has been set too high here by the books. I just don't see this being a shootout. Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, but they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg).

All the talk here is about the Wildcats new quarterback in Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 557 yards in the last two games. I think he's a good find for Arizona, but that was against Colorado, who ranks 99th in run defense and UCLA, who ranks 129th. Cal's defense isn't as good as it was last week against the Cougars, but it's going to put up better numbers at home and are better built to stop the run than the pass. I think they at least make Tate and the Arizona offense work for their points, which is going to eat up the clock with how much they like to run the ball. That should have this finishing closer to 50 than 60. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF No Limit TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State OVER

I like the value here with this low total and these two Big Ten teams going over the mark set by the books. It wouldn't be anything new, as the OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with a perfect 4-0 mark the last 4 times they have faced off in East Lansing. 

Michigan State should have no problem moving the chains and finishing off drives as they have the 40th ranked rushing attack at 192.2 ypg and will be up against a Indiana defense that ranks 79th against the run, giving up just over 170 ypg. The offensive numbers for the Spartans aren't great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that half of their games have been against Notre Dame, Michigan and Iowa. 

Indiana's offense should be able to provide enough here to push this over the mark. The Hoosiers put up 20 on Michigan last week and 21 against Ohio State. I think they can get to at least 20 here and the Spartans should be able to do the rest. 

OVER is 35-15 in Michigan State's last 50 games when they enter having covered the spread in at least 4 of their last 6 and 40-16 in Indiana's last 56 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah OVER

I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should, due to the fact that Arizona State is coming off a 13-7 win at home over Washington. Everything went right for the Sun Devils in that one and I'm banking on their defense returning to form and giving up a bunch of points. Prior to holding the Huskies to 7-points, Arizona State had allowed at least 30 points in each of their previous 11 games. 

It's still not official, but Utah's offense could be getting a big boost with the return of starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. If he plays this thing should fly over the mark, but I still think we get to 57 rather easily if he doesn't 

Both of these defenses are in huge letdown spots. While the Sun Devils were laying it all on the line against USC, the Utes were at USC and suffered a crushing 27-28 loss. These two teams combined for 75 points a year ago and that was with an identical total of 56 points. 

Utah's defense strength has been stopping the run under Whittingham, but they can be attacked through the air. In fact, the OVER is 12-4 the last 16 times the Utes have faced a poor rushing team that is averaging 3.25 or less yards/carry and these games have averaged over 62 points. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Florida St UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Florida State. These totals with the Cardinals have been inflated all season and I think it's definitely inflated here after they combined for 87 points last week against Boston College. The number here is also high due to the fact these two teams combined for 83 last year with Louisville accounting for 63. 

I just don't see that kind of offensive output this time around. While Lamar Jackson has great numbers, this Louisville team isn't as good as it was last year. Defenses have a much better game-plan for Jackson and we have seen him struggle against the two best defenses he's faced in Clemson and NC State. I put this FSU defense right up there with those two. 

At the same time, this isn't just another game for the Seminoles defense. Don't think for a second they have forgot about what Jackson and company did to them last year. The 63 points that Louisville scored was the most points ever allowed by a Florida State team. This defense has had this came circled and I expect them to play their best game of the season. 

On the other side of this, Florida State's offense continues to struggle without starting quarterback Deondre Francois. They had 425 total yards last week against Duke and only managed 17 points. They are 122nd in the country at 18.2 ppg. I know the Louisville defense isn't playing very well, but I think they can keep this offense from going off and that should have us well below the mark here set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

3* Lafayette/Arkansas St Sun Belt DESTROYER on Lafayette UNDER

These weekday Sun Belt games are much lower-scoring than the overall numbers would suggest. So while we have two defenses that are near the bottom of the country in yards allowed, I expect this to go under the high total that's been set here. One of the reasons the defensive numbers are so bad for these teams is the big programs they play in non-conference. Lafayette played both Tulsa and Texas A&M and Arkansas State had to face both Nebraska and SMU. 

A prime example of how much lower-scoring these games can be is last week's contest with Lafayette against Texas State. The total was 55 and getting pounded by the public, yet the game finished with a final score of 24-7. The previous week the Ragin' Cajuns scored just 21 against Idaho. Arkansas State has allowed just 25 and 17 points in their two conference games. 

UNDER is 10-2-1 in Lafayette's last 13 conference games and 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. UNDER is also 11-4-1 in Arkansas State's last 16 overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* Giants/Broncos SNF Total NO BRAINER on Denver UNDER

This one shouldn't need a whole lot of explanation. Denver's defense is one of the best in the NFL and will be taking on a depleted New York offense that is without it's top three wideouts in Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard. Not to mention an offensive line that has been atrocious and zero threat of a running game. Eli Manning is going to have to work wonders here just to get first downs, as he's getting a fresh Denver defense off a bye and playing at home in a prime time game. 

While the offense figures to struggle to put points on the board, there's still a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball for the Giants. Denver comes in averaging a modest 24.5 ppg, but have actually only scored more than 24 points once all season. They have managed just 16 in each of their last two games against the Bills and Raiders. 

UNDER is 30-16 in the Giants last 46 road games against AFC opponents and 8-1 in the Broncos last 9 games vs a team from the NFC. UNDER is also 23-8 in New York's last 31against strong defensive teams that are allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Take the UNDER!