Sports Picks & Predictions

3* BEST BET on Kansas/Kansas State under 51 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Illinois/Wisconsin over 50½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -119

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Arkansas State/Appalachian State under 66 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Cowboys over 54 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Browns/Steelers under 51½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Ravens/Eagles under 46½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Georgia/Alabama under 59½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Boston College/Virginia Tech over 59½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Marshall/Louisiana Tech under 52½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on North Texas/Middle Tennessee State over 69 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Army/UTSA under 50½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Kentucky/Tennessee under 48 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on South Florida/Temple over 50 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Clemson/Georgia Tech over 60 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on SMU/Tulane under 68 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Georgia State/Arkansas State over 71½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Jaguars/Texans over 54 -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Cardinals/Jets over 46½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Eagles/Steelers under 46½ -107

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Miami-FL/Clemson over 61 -119

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Pittsburgh/Boston College under 43½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on UTSA/BYU over 60½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Florida/Texas A&M under 59 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Virginia Tech/North Carolina over 58 -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Bucs/Bears under 45½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Jaguars/Bengals over 47½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Panthers over 51 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Lions/Packers over 46 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Vikings/Colts over 46 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Bills/Dolphins under 42 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Western Kentucky/Louisville under 58 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on SMU/Texas State over 66 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 (KC/SF) Total NO-BRAINER  on 49ers/Chiefs under 54½ -105

I'm confident we see Super Bowl 54 finish UNDER the mark. This will be the 7th time since 2000 that we have seen a total north of 50 in the Super Bowl and the UNDER has cashed in 5 of the previous 6. The only game that went OVER was Super Bowl 51 when the Patriots made that ridiculous comeback from down 28-3 to force OT and win 34-28. 

Just look at last year, everyone was calling for a shootout between the Rams and Patriots. The total for the game was 58 and it ended up being 13-3. I just think the number here is too high. Sure the Chiefs have the best QB in the league and all these weapons on offense, but they are going up against a really good 49ers defense. Also, San Francisco is a run heavy team and are going to try and limit the possessions of KC by chewing up the clock. 

Another big thing here is the Chiefs defense. Kansas City has really made remarkable strides on the defensive side of the ball. Not just from last year, but from earlier this season. KC's run defense gets a really bad wrap, but in their last 6 games they are giving up just 89 yards/game. Everyone thought Derrick Henry was going to run all over them and they held him to 69 yards on 19 attempts. 

Lastly, you got to factor in the edge these two defenses have with the two weeks to prepare for this game. There's just not a lot at this point that's not on tape for either offense, so both defense are going to be well prepared. I'm not saying it will be like last year, but the number is too high. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Pro Bowl (AFC vs NFC) Total NO-BRAINER on NFC/AFC over 49½ -110

It's crazy to think the total for the Pro Bowl is less than that of the Super Bowl. I get the UNDER has cashed in each of the last 3 and 5 of the last 6 Pro Bowls, but the average score since 2014 is still at 49 points. I just think there's too much value here in an exhibition game to take a shot at this price. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF - National Championship NO LIMIT Top Play on Clemson/LSU under 68½ -110

I love the value here with the UNDER in the title game between Clemson and LSU. After watching LSU score at will against Oklahoma in the semifinal matchup, I think the perception here is that there's just no stopping Joe Burrow and that offensive attack. 

I'm not about to say Clemson is going to shutdown LSU's offense, but they are definitely going to offer a lot more resistance than Oklahoma, who keep in mind was not a great defensive team and missing some key guys on that side of the ball. 

It's no secret that LSU's offense is built around Burrow and the passing game, but that plays right into the strength of the Clemson defense, which was No. 1 in the country against the pass, giving up just 138.5 ypg. 

As for the LSU defense, it's been a lot better of late and they definitely got the talent on that side of the ball to keep Clemson's offense in check. 

I also think the long layoff from the semifinal games to this contest really benefits both defenses and there's simply not enough being made of the two mastermind defensive coordinators in this matchup with LSU's Dave Aranda and Clemson's Brent Venables. 

UNDER is 13-1 in Clemson's last 14 games played in a dome and 7-0 over the last 3 seasons when playing on 2 or more weeks of rest. UNDER is also 20-5 in LSU's last 25 after 3 or more consecutive covers and 16-5 under Orgeron after a game where they gained 6.75 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Seahawks/Eagles Wild Card VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks/Eagles under 46 -110

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup between the Eagles and Seahawks. These two teams met up in Week 12 of the regular-season and the two combined for just 26 points in a 17-9 Seattle win at Philadelphia. 

It's hard to expect nearly double the offense in the rematch, especially with the problems both of these teams are facing offensively. Seattle's offensive line has been decimated with injuries and things got so bad at running back they had to bring back Marshawn Lynch. 

Eagles defense has played really well down the stretch and should continue that trend at home in this one. At the same time, Philadelphia's offense has been decimated with injuries and while Seattle's defense has struggled some down the stretch, they should be able to keep Wentz and the Eagles in check. 

UNDER is 15-5 in the Seahawks last 20 road games after a loss by 6 or less and 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs a NFC East team. UNDER is also 24-9 in Eagles last 33 home games and 7-0 in their last 7 at home off a division win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF - Wisconsin/Oregon ROSE BOWL  on Wisconsin/Oregon under 52 -110

I'm expecting a defensive showdown in the Rose Bowl between Oregon and Wisconsin. While both teams ranked in the Top 40 in total offense and Top 25 in scoring, they will both be facing two of the nations best defenses. 

Wisconsin was 8th in total defense (295.2 ypg) and 10th in scoring (16.1 ppg). While Oregon ranked a little further back at 24th in total defense (331.1 ypg) they were 9th in scoring defense (15.7 ypg). 

The other big thing here is that Oregon's defense is built to stop a team like the Badgers that is built around their running game. Ducks were 59th against the pass, but ranked 12th against the run, giving up just 107 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. 

Wisconsin's defense was great against both the run (8th) and the pass (16th). They only gave up 3.4 yards/carry and opposing QB's completed a mere 50.8% of their pass attempts against them. 

It's just going to be really tough for both teams to get a lot going offensively and when they do move the ball I could see both having to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF - Minn/Auburn OUTBACK BOWL Top Play on Minnesota/Auburn under 52½ -110

I really like the UNDER in the Outback bowl, which has No. 12 Auburn facing off with No. 18 Minnesota. While both offenses were decent, the strength of the both of these teams was their defense. Both units ranked in the Top 20 in total defense. Auburn was 19th, giving up just 323.9 ypg and Minnesota was 14th, allowing just 312.8 ypg. 

The other thing here is that both of these teams really like to run the football. Minnesota averaged 43 rush attempts per game compared to just 24 pass attempt and Auburn put it on the ground an average of 44 times compared to 31 through the air. 

All that running combined with the talent on defense is really going to make it tough for this game to eclipse the total. The clock is going to be running constantly and there just isn't going to be a ton of possessions for either side. 

UNDER has cashed in 11 of Auburn's last 14 non-conference games. It's also 24-11-1 in their last 36 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1-1 in their last 6 bowl games. UNDER is also 7-2 in Minnesota's last 9 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 bowl games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Kansas St/Navy LIBERTY BOWL on Kansas State/Navy over 52½ -110

I really like the value with the OVER in the Liberty Bowl matchup between Kansas State and Navy, as I think we are going to see both offenses have big days in this one. 

Midshipmen finished the year with the nations No. 1 ranked rushing attack at 363.8 ypg and will be facing a K-State defense that allowed 4.9 yards/carry, which is a bit alarming given how pass happy the Big 12 is. 

As for Navy's defense, they were great against bad teams and awful against good teams. Midshipmen allowed 17 or fewer points in 6 games against Holy Cross, East Carolina, Tulsa, USF, UCONN and Army. In their other 6 games they gave up 36.7 ppg. Wildcats averaged 30.7 ppg and I think they easily top that mark as this flies past the total. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Titans/Texans under 46 -110

I really like the UNDER in Sunday's AFC South matchup between the Texans and Titans. I really think Houston is going to be going through the motions in this one. The only thing the Texans can do is move up from the No. 4 to the No. 3 seed, but chances are the Chiefs will beat the Chargers in the early slate of games and Houston will be locked into the No. 4. 

I could see the Texans either resting their starters or playing them for just a few series. There's just no incentive here for them to do anything special in this game. Offensively they are likely be very vanilla with a lot of runs and I could see them struggling to score more than 14. 

As for Tennessee they are in a must-win situation. Win and they are the No. 6 seed and in the playoffs. Lose and they are more than likely out. Titans are built for UNDERs. They are really good defensively and have an offense built around a power running game with Derrick Henry. 

UNDER is 6-0 in Houston's last 6 games vs good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards/carry. It's also 7-1 in their last 8 division games and 8-3 in their last 11 at home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Saints/Panthers under 47 -110

I absolutely love the UNDER 47 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. Carolina turned over the offense to rookie Will Grier last week and it couldn't have much worse. The Panthers managed 6 points and 286 total yards, failing to find the endzone. Grier was a respectable 27 of 44 for 224 yards, but threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. 

It's hard to imagine it going any better against the Saints on Sunday. That means the only way this game goes over this total is if New Orleans pops off for 30+ points and I just don't see that happening. If the Saints get any kind of comfortable lead they are going to become very conventional and really try to grind this thing out. 

New Orleans still has a shot at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. However, this game only matters if they win and the Packers lose at Detroit (GB 12.5-point favorite). They can also get the No. 2 seed if the Seahawks beat the 49ers, but they don't have to win to get it, as they would own the tie-breaker. If GB and SF win they are No. 3. 

You can bet they will be paying close attention that the Packers score and if Green Bay gets up big, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they pulled several of their key players. Either way they aren't going to be trying to run up the score. 

UNDER is also 11-2 in New Orleans' last 13 games vs a team with a losing record and 12-4 in their last 16 trips to Carolina. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF - Clemson/Ohio St TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clemson/Ohio State under 64 -110

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's CFP Semifinal matchup between Ohio State and Clemson. There's going to be plenty of talk about the two high-powered offenses and what they were able to do this season, but I just think both are going to have a miserable time moving the ball on these two elite defenses, especially at the rate needed to eclipse a high total like this one. 

Ohio State's defense ranked 3rd in the country giving up just 12.5 ppg and were 2nd in total defense, allowing just 247.9 ypg. Clemson had the best scoring defense in the country, giving up only 10.6 ppg and were also 1st in total defense, allowing 244.7 ppg. Both defense ranked in the Top 10 against the run and the pass. 

UNDER is 6-0 in Clemson's last 6 games when they have two or more weeks to prepare and 4-0 in their last 4 semifinal games in the playoffs. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Buckeyes last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 bowl games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Memphis/Penn State COTTON BOWL on Memphis/Penn State under 60½ -109

I really like the UNDER in Saturday's matchup between Penn State and Memphis in the Cotton Bowl. Simply based on what these two offenses were able to accomplish in the regular-season, it would be really easy to expect a shootout. Memphis put up 40.5 ppg and Penn State finished the year at 34.3 ppg. 

However, there's a good reason to believe that neither offense will be on top of their game. That's because both offenses will be working under a new play caller. Memphis lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State and he was the guy that orchestrated that offense. As for Penn State, offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne left to be the head coach at Old Dominion. 

Another thing here is that these two teams can get after you defensively. Penn State has one of the best d-lines in the country and gave up just 14.1 ppg. Memphis had their lapses on defense, but only gave up 24.4 ppg when it was all said and done. 

The other big thing is I expect the effort to be there defensively, as these two know a lot of people will be tuned into Saturday's card leading up to the two big semifinal matchups in the playoffs. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Temple/N Carolina MILITARY BOWL on North Carolina/Temple over 53½ -110

I really like the value here with the OVER in the Military Bowl between Temple and North Carolina. The Owls are perceived to be a great defensive team, but I just don't know that's the case. The only decent offense they faced in non-conference was Buffalo and they gave up 38 points to the Bulls. 

Temple finished with the 6th best record in the AAC and every team below them had 3 or fewer conference wins, so basically they were the worst of the quality teams in the American. Their only win against one of the top teams was a 30-28 victory over Memphis, but it was real fluky. The Tigers turned it over 3 times in their first 4 possessions, which allowed the Owls to jump out to a 16-0 lead. They were outscored 28-14 in the final 36 minutes of that game. 

The two best offenses that Temple faced outside of Memphis were SMU and UCF and those two did whatever they wanted. The Knights put up 63 points and over 600 yards of offense, while the Mustangs had 45 points and over 650 yards.

UNC has the 14th best offense in the country, ranking in the top 45 in both rushing and passing. Tar Heels will score and score a lot. 

While I don't think Temple is going to be able to go score for score with UNC, I do think they will be able to put some points on the scoreboard. Owls offense was 39th in passing and will be up against a Tar Heels defense that finished 79th against the pass. I think worse case here this ends up like 35-21 in favor of UNC. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Packers/Vikings NFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Packers/Vikings under 46 -110

I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in this one. These two teams already played once this season and combined for a mere 37 points. I have a really hard time seeing them eclipsing that mark by a full 10 points. 

Green Bay's offense hasn't been nearly as good as their scoring average. Packers are 13th in scoring at 23.6 ppg yet are 22nd in total offense and rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing. Hard to see them figuring it out against a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league and one that is giving up just 14.2 ppg at home. 

As for Minnesota's offense, they are really short handed here with their top two running backs, Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison both doubtful to play. Note that in that first game against Green Bay they had 198 yards rushing. Green Bay's defense is also playing really well at the moment. Packers have held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or less. 

UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the Vikings last 7 division home games and 7-0 in the Packers last 7 overall against a team from the NFC North. UNDER is also 10-2 in Minnesota's last 12 after a game where they scored 30 or more and 8-3 in Green Bay's last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF - C Mich/SD State NEW MEXICO BOWL on Central Michigan/San Diego State under 41 -110

The UNDER is worth a look in the New Mexico Bowl as San Diego State takes on Central Michigan. I just think it's going to be a real struggle for both teams to score, which is just about how every game this season has went when the Aztecs are involved. 

UNDER is 11-1 in San Diego's 12 games this season, including a perfect 6-0 away from home. Aztecs simply have no offense, as they score just 19.0 ppg. What they do have is a great defense, that is holding teams to 12.8 ppg and 289 ypg. Central Michigan is scoring 31.9 ppg, but a lot of that has to do with the soft defenses they faced in the MAC. They didn't score a point in a game at Wisconsin and managed just 12 vs Miami. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Texans/Bucs Over/Under ANNIHILATOR on Texans/Bucs over 50 -110

The OVER is definitely worth a look here in Saturday's first of 3 NFL games that has the Texans visiting the Bucs. I just don't think either side is going to be able to keep the other team from moving the football up and down the field. 

Houston comes in ranked 11th in the NFL in passing at 245.0 ypg and will be up against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL as the Bucs are 30th against the pass, allowing 276.8 ypg. Also, Texans are an even more potent offense when they got all 3 of their weapons on the outside in Hopkins, Stills and Fuller and all 3 are a go here. 

As for Tampa, the Bucs haven't had any problem racking up offensive numbers. Tampa Bay is 3rd in total offense (400.1 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (29.7 ppg). Jameis Winston continues to make too many mistakes, but when he isn't throwing to the other team he's carving up opponents no matter who he has at his disposal. He should be in store for another big game here against a Texans defense that ranks 28th against the pass, giving up 266.1 ypg.

OVER is 11-3 in Bucs games this year, including 4-1 at home. OVER is also 11-3 in Tampa's last 14 vs excellent passing teams and 6-0 vs awful pass defenses (allowing completion rate of 64% or better). Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF - Buffalo/Charlotte BAHAMAS BOWL Top Play on Buffalo/Charlotte under 58½ -110

Easy play here on the total in Friday's first bowl game of the season with Buffalo taking on Charlotte. Couple factors here that really has me loving this game staying UNDER the total. 

First off these are two teams that are run-first offenses. Buffalo finished the season ranked 9th in the country in rushing at 254.3 yards/game and Charlotte was 26th at 211.3 ypg. I full expect both teams to try to come out and establish the run. 

They might not have a choice. The other big factor here is the weather with the game in the Bahamas. Winds are expected to exceed 20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph. Plus, the game is being played in a soccer stadium, which is built like your normal CFB stadiums, so the wind could be even more of a factor than you would expect. 

UNDER is also 28-6 (82%) since 1992 in games where you have two non-Power 5 teams with decent offensive teams (390 to 440 ypg) facing off in a non-conference game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Colts/Saints MNF Vegas INSIDER on Colts/Saints over 46 -110

I love the value here with the OVER on Monday Night Football. New Orleans just seems to always deliver a big offensive performance when playing at home in prime time games and it's hard to see the Colts slowing down Drew Brees and that high-powered passing attack after Jameis Winston just torched the Indy defense for 467 yards and 4 TDs in their last game. Tampa Bay finished with 542 yards of total offense. Colts defense is much better suited to slow down run-first teams. 

The key here is I don't think New Orleans will be able to take their foot off the gas. The Saints defense has been really good for the most part this season, but a big reason for that is the play they were getting up front. Unfortunately for NO they just lost two studs from the defensive line to season ending injuries in defensive end Marcus Davenport and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. They also are dealing with some injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. 

OVER is 11-3 in the Saints last 14 games under head coach Sean Payton on Monday Night Football and 29-12 in their last 41 at home off a loss by 6 or less. OVER is also 15-3 in the Colts last 18 on the road after giving up 35 or more points in their last game. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL - SNF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Bills/Steelers under 36½ -110

Even when there's every reason to believe there's going to be little to no offense in a game, the betting public struggles to stomach an under with a total less than 40. I just can't help myself here, as this is just one of those games where both offenses are going to have a hard time just getting first downs. 

With all the injuries the Steelers have had on offense they really have leaned hard on their defense to win games and the stop unit has been up to the task. Pittsburgh has held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer. Buffalo has a little more offensive fire-power, but not much. Bills also want to win games with their defense. 

Buffalo comes in 3rd in the NFL in total defense (296.8 ypg) and the Steelers have the 28th ranked offense (290.1 ypg). Pittsburgh's stop unit is 5th in total defense (310.9 ypg) and the Bills are 20th in total offense (341.9 ypg). 

UNDER is 10-3 in the Bills 16 games this season and a perfect 6-0 in 2019 when they are listed as a dog. UNDER is also 11-3 in their last 14 on the road. UNDER is 10-3 in the Steelers 13 games this season, 12-4 in their last 16 off a cover and 7-0 in their last 7 after playing their previous game against a team from the NFC. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bears/Packers under 41 -110

These two managed to combine for just 13 points when they met up in Week 1 and neither offense had more than 255 total yards in the matchup. I would expect a little more offense in the rematch this Sunday, but I still don't see them approaching 40 points. 

Chicago's offense has come to life a little over the last couple of weeks, but there's little reason to be optimistic about them putting up a big number here. Mitch Trubisky is simply not playing at a high level and the Bears' lack of a running game really puts the entire offensive unit behind the 8-ball. 

While the offense continues to struggle for Chicago, the defense remains a strength and while the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, they have struggled to put up points against the better defenses they have faced. Even last week they only scored 20 points against the Redskins at home and that was them scoring 14 points in the 1st quarter. 

Add in just how familiar these two teams are with one another being division opponents and the fact the game will be played at wind chills in the single digits and it wouldn't surprise me if neither team scored 20 points. 

UNDER is 8-1 in the Bears last 9 games as road underdog, 6-1 in their last 7 division games and 9-2 in their last 11 games played in the month of December. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Packers last 10 vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 in their last 6 division games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Patriots/Bengals over 41 -110

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's matchup that has the Patriots visiting the Bengals. I think we are getting a great number here with how New England's offense has struggle here of late. Patriots only managed 16 points at home last week against a Chiefs defense that isn't perceived to be very good and are averaging just 17 ppg in their last 4. 

The thing is, those 4 games were against some pretty good defensive teams. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had one of their best offensive games of the season against a Bengals team that just gave up 27 points to a struggling Browns offense. 

As for Cincinnati's offense and how they will manage to score against this Patriots defense. It won't be easy, but the Bengals have looked a lot better on that side of the ball since going back to Andy Dalton. While they only managed 19 points last week against the Browns, they had 451 yards of total offense. If they can just put up like 17-20, which I think is very doable, this thing should fly past the number. 

OVER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and 4-1 in the Bengals last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER is also 10-1 in Cincinnati's last 11 at home vs elite pass defenses that are giving up 5.2 or less yards per attempt. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -109

I love the UNDER between the Eagles/Giants on Monday Night Football. I think a lot of people are going to look at this number and think it's way to low given how poorly New York's defense has played and the Eagles coming off a game where they gave up 37 points and over 400 yards of offense to the Dolphins. 

However, I don't see either team going off in this one. Eagles are perceived to be this great offense, but that just hasn't been the case in 2019. Giants are going to show up with one of their best efforts in this one, plus I think the conditions favor a low scoring game with rain expected throughout and winds approaching 15 mph. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Eagles last 11 games after going OVER the total in their previous game, 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring and allowing 30 points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ravens/Bills under 44 -105

I don't see either offense being able to do a whole lot in this one. Baltimore's high-powered offensive attack had a difficult time moving the ball against a strong 49ers defense last week and I expect more of the same against a Bills defense that ranks No. 3 in the league in total defense. 

Buffalo's also well aware that their offense is not built for a shootout, so they are going to come out looking to play keep away from Lamar Jackson and try to grind out possessions with their running game. 

Another factor here for a low-scoring game is the conditions. Temps are expected to be in the mid 30's, but it's expected feel more like 25 degrees. There are also expected to be winds close to 17 mph. This should limit both teams ability to throw the ball, which means more clock getting eat up with all the run plays. 

UNDER is 15-6 in the Bills last 21 off a win, 13-5 in their last 18 as an underdog and perfect 7-0 in their last 7 with a total of 42.5 to 49. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 49ers/Ravens over 46 -110

This is a no-brainer for me. This is just too low a total for a game involving Lamar Jackson and this high-powered Ravens offense. Baltimore is averaging 35.1 ppg and I think the perception here is the strong front of the 49ers can make things difficult. I just don't think that will be the case. San Francisco has struggled against mobile quarterbacks and there's not a more elusive signal caller in the game than Jackson. 

On the flip side of this, the 49ers have a much better offense than they get credit for. San Francisco is putting up 30.2 ppg. I know the Ravens defense is coming off two excellent games against the Rams and Texans, but I don't think this defense is elite by any means.

OVER is 12-3 in the 49ers last 15 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points and 30-14 in their last 44 on the road after scoring 25 or more in 2 straight. OVER is 13-4 in the Ravens last 17 home games off a game on Monday Night Football. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL - Titans/Colts TOTAL WINNER on Titans/Colts under 43½ -110

I got a strong feeling on both the side and the total in Sunday's huge AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans. I think we are getting an excellent price here on both Tennessee and the UNDER. 

The Titans have really come on strong in the second half of the season. Tennessee is 4-1 in their last 5. A big reason for their turnaround is the switch from Mariota to Tannehill at QB, as they now have an offense that can compliment their defense. With T.Y. Hilton not able to go for Indy, I just don't see the Colts being able to win this game. 

As for the UNDER, both of these teams want to play ball control with the run game and both defenses are built to stop the run. I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions for this to eclipse the mark. I expect something very similar to the first meeting that ended 19-17 with a combined total of 36. 

Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record and the UNDER is 14-3 in the Colts last 17 vs a team with a winning record, 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half of the season and 8-1 in the Titans last 9 on the road off a division game. Take the Titans & UNDER! 

3* NCAAF - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt/Tennessee over 45½ -110

I really like the value here with the OVER in Saturday's SEC East clash between Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The Commodores are giving up 38.2 ppg and 513 ypg on the road this season and 37.0 ppg and 487.5 ypg in conference play. There's a realistic chance the Vols could eclipse this total on their own. 

However, I don't think they will need to. Tennessee's defense is solid, but Vanderbilt should be able to generate some offense in this one. I think they could easily get to 20-points and that would have us flying past this total. Just last year they hung 38 on the Vols and have scored 28 or more in 4 straight meetings. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF - Ohio St/Mich Total NO-BRAINER on Ohio State/Michigan over 50 -110

The OVER is worth a look in Saturday's highly anticipated Big Ten showdown between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 13 Michigan. I think the fact that the Buckeyes are coming off a much lower scoring game than expected against Penn State has created some value here. 

That was the first time this season that Ohio State failed to score at least 34 points and had they not turned it over 3 times they probably would have got there, as they put up over 400 yards of offense against the Nittany Lions. 

Michigan's got a good defense, but they have not been able to slow down Ohio State in recent years. Buckeyes have put up at least 30 on the Wolverines in each of the last 6 meetings, 4 times scoring 42 or more. 

Wolverines offense has improved greatly over the course of the season and I think with them playing at home they can make more than enough plays to push this thing OVER the mark. OVER is 11-3 in the Buckeyes last 14 as a road favorite and 10-2 in Michigan's last 12 at home against a conference rival. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF - Late Night Total DESTROYER on South Florida/Central Florida under 63½ -110

I just feel the books have set the total way too high for tonight' AAC action between USF and UCF. You really need to good offensive teams to go over a total like this and I don't think that's the case at all.

The Bulls have done next to nothing offensively when matchup up against the top teams in the American, scoring just 3 against Navy, 7 against Temple, 17 against Cincinnati and 10 against Memphis. Even against a UCF defense that has allowed 29+ in 3 straight games, I think they struggle to get to 20 here. 

The other key here is the Bulls aren't a complete pushover on the defensive side of the ball and we know they are going to give a big effort against their in-state rivals. USF is giving up less than their opponents average on the season and are only allowing 22.7 ppg and 333 ypg on their home field. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF - Early Bird Total ANNIHILATOR  on Bowling Green/Buffalo under 53 -105

A lot of people are going to look to take the OVER here given that Buffalo just put up 49 last week against Toledo, marking the 3rd time in their last 4 that they scored 40+, and the fact that Bowling Green Gave up 66 at home to Ohio. I just don't see this being that kind of high-scoring affair. 

Not a lot for either team to play for in this one, so don't be surprised if a few backups get a few more reps, especially the younger guys. With the Bulls win over Toledo last week they got their 6th win for bowl eligibility and the Falcons are simply playing for pride at 3-8. 

Another big factor here is both teams really like to run the football. Buffalo is averaging 51 rush attempts/game and Bowling Green runs it 42 times per game. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Falcons last 8 road games and 13-3 in their last 16 overall. Take the UNDER!

3* NFL - Bills/Cowboys Total NO-BRAINER on Bills/Cowboys over 46 -109

Most will look at this matchup and have a hard time seeing these two going OVER the total, but that's exactly what I expect to happen. I think both of these offenses are better than they get credit for.

Cowboys should definitely have a better showing this week than they did last week against the Patriots. Dallas is averaging 30.2 ppg and 476 ypg at home. Key here is they should be able to get the running game going and when Zeke is moving the chains everything seems to click. 

As for the Cowboys defense, it's been pretty good, but it's far from great. Just two weeks ago they gave up 27 points to a Jeff Driskel led Lions offense. Buffalo is averaging 22.4 ppg and a respectable 368 ypg on the road and I think they can easily get to 20 points in this one. 

OVER is a strong 8-2 in the Cowboys last 10 off a loss and 9-4 in their last 13 at home. OVER is also 26-12 in the Bills last 38 after covering the spread in 3 straight games. 

OVER is 73-31 (70%) last 10 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 with a road team that is outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and off a game where they gave up 3 or fewer points in the 1st half. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/Eagles under 47½ -110

Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's big NFC matchup between Seattle and Philadelphia. I just think the total here is based too much on how these two defenses played early on and not how they are playing right now. 

Seattle's defense looked as good as they had all season in their last game at San Francisco and I would expect that to carry over here, especially coming off their bye. I also don't think the Eagles offense is anything special. Philly has scored 22 or fewer in 4 of their last 5, including just 10 at home last week against the Patriots. 

Philadelphia defense has finally got healthy and it's shown. The Eagles have held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer points. They held the Bills to just 243 total yards, then held the Bears to 164 before limiting Tom Brady and the Pats to just 298 last week. 

There's also a good chance for strong winds in this game, which should have both teams running it a little more than they normally would. That should eat up some clock and have this thing well below the number. 

UNDER is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 after scoring 25 or more in 3 straight games and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 at home vs a team that's giving up 5.65 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Colorado State/Wyoming over 50½ -109

I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Friday's Mountain West clash between Colorado State and Wyoming. I get the Cowboys aren't the most explosive offense and like to play slow, but it's hard to play slow against this horrible Rams defense that is giving up 38.6 ppg on the road and are allowing 228 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry away from home. 

Key here is Colorado State has a decent offense that can put up points. Rams are averaging 30.6 ppg and their strength is their passing attack, which is averaging 316 yards/game and 8.4 yards/attempt. Wyoming is a solid defensive team, but are built much more to stop the run. 

OVER is 31-7 (82%) since 1992 in games with a total of 49.5 to 56 when you have a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) off a conference loss and facing a team with a marginal losing record. 

5* NCAAF - Weekday Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Akron/Miami-OH under 45 -110

I love the value here with the UNDER 45 in Wednesday's MAC matchup between Miami (OH) and Akron. This has an ugly low-scoring affair written all over it. The Zips are one of the worst teams in college football and are as bad offensively as a team can be in today's game. Akron comes in averaging 10.6 ppg on the season and a mere 7.8 ppg in MAC play. 

Miami is only giving up 16.0 ppg at home and will be extra motivated to play with this being their final home game and senior night. The big concern here would be the RedHawks covering this total on their own, but with the MAC East already locked up, I think we could see Miami go a little more vanilla on offense, especially in the 2nd half. There biggest thing is to stay fresh and as healthy as possible over the final two regular-season games. 

UNDER is 24-11 in Miami's last 35 vs a bad team that's won fewer than 25% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 vs horrible offensive teams that are averaging 17 or fewer points/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Patriots/Eagles under 45 -101

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's Super Bowl rematch from two years ago, as the Eagles host the Patriots. I just think this is going to be a defensive struggle. I know New England's defense didn't look great in their last game against the Ravens. Some will say that's because they finally played a legit quarterback. Part of that is true. Lamar Jackson is an absolute nightmare to defend. He's the one guy that can still beat a defense even when they do everything right. 

Not to take anything away from Carson Wentz, but he just doesn't pose the same threat. Add in how motivated New England is going to be coming off that poor showing and that they have had two weeks to prepare off their bye, I expect them to return to that elite form we saw in their first 8 games.

As for the Patriots offense, I think some of the struggles we saw against the Ravens could linger on, especially on the road against a talented defense like the Eagles, which feels like it's getting better as the season progresses. 

Under is 16-5 in New England's last 21 road games when listed as a favorite and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Eagles are also off a bye and the UNDER is 23-10 in their last 33 off a bye. It's also 9-2 in their last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Jets/Redskins under 38½ -102

Don't be scared away of the low total here. In fact, I think we are getting some decent value here with the UNDER at this price. The Jets 34-point outburst last week was simply a result of playing an awful Giants defense. The Redskins might be a bad team, but the defense has been more than respectable, especially given how much they are on the field. 

Washington's defense should also have one of it's better performances coming off of their bye and playing at home. Prior to going off against the other New York team, the Jets had topped 20 points just once in their first 8 games. 

Speaking of offenses that can't score. The Redskins have gone 7 straight games with 17 or fewer points and have failed to top 10 points in 5 of those games. It's not going to get any better with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. He's just not ready, but at this point Washington really has nothing to lose throwing him out there. 

UNDER is 13-3 in the Redskins last 16 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs bad teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Jets last 28 on the road in the 2nd half vs team that allow 350+ yards/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Late Night Total BLOWOUT on New Mexico/Boise State under 60 -110

I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in Saturday's MWC game between Boise State and New Mexico. The Lobos are a team that likes to try and run the ball and control the close. They come in averaging 200 yards/game 5 yards/carry on the ground.

The problem is they struggle to score. New Mexico is only averaging 18.6 ppg in MWC play and 13.0 ppg on the road. Not a big surprise then that the UNDER is 4-1 in their 5 road games and 4-1 in their 5 conference games. 

Boise State's offense only put up 20 last week at home against a Wyoming team that likes to play ball control and just 25 a few weeks ago against BYU. Unless the Broncos put up 50 here, I don't see anyway this thing climbs past the number set by the books. 

UNDER is 16-4 in Boise State's last 20 as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points and 7-2 in their last 9 conference games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Over/Under Total HEAVY HITTER on Kentucky/Vanderbilt under 43½ -110

No need to overthink this one. You got two of the worst offenses the SEC has to offer facing off with Kentucky and Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are averaging just 15.3 ppg in SEC play and Vanderbilt is even worse at 13.0 ppg. 

I know the two aren't great defensively, but Kentucky is at least respectable on that side of the ball and Vanderbilt has the benefit of feeding off their home crowd. There was a similar total in last year's meeting at 44.5 and the game ended 14-7. 

UNDER is 13-2 in Kentucky's last 15 conference games and 7-2 in the Commodores last 9. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Wildcats last 10 road games and 6-1 in Vandy's last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Central Michigan/Ball State over 59½ -110

Saturday's big MAC showdown between Ball State and Central Michigan has all the makings of a shootout. Both these teams can light up the scoreboard. The Chippewas are averaging 34.7 ppg in conference play and the Cardinals aren't far behind at 32 ppg. 

Central Michigan has scored 38 or more in 4 of their last 5 games, including 48 last time out against Northern Illinois. They got a shot of adding to that, as Ball State has allowed 35 to Western Michigan and 34 to Ohio in their last 2 games. 

OVER is 14-4 in the Chippewas last 18 road games when they are a dog of 7 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 after going over in their last game. OVER is also 11-3 in the Cardinals last 14 in the 2nd half of the season and 4-0 in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Seahawks/49ers NFC West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/49ers over 47 -109

I look for these two teams to easily combine for at least 50 points an cover the total set by the books. Everyone likes to talk about the 49ers defense and rightfully so, but SF is averaging an impressive 35.3 ppg. That offense will be without George Kittle tonight, but they are getting back left tackle Joe Staley and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. 

I look for San Francisco to run the ball at will here and that's going to open up the opportunities for some big passing plays. I think the 49ers will easily score 30+ points here against a Seattle defense that has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5. That means all we need is for the Seahawks to score around 18-20 to have us safely over the mark. I'm pretty confident Russell Wilson and that group can give us that. 

OVER is 41-18 in the Seahawks last 59 vs strong defensive teams that are giving up 17 or less points/game and 6-0 in their last 6 vs strong rushing teams that average 4.5+ yards/carry. OVER has also cashed in 4 of San Fran's last 5 division games and 8 out of their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF - MWC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah State/Fresno State under 59 -110

I think we are getting big time value here with the UNDER. Fresno State comes in off 3 really high-scoring games, but those were all against horrible defensive teams in Hawaii, Colorado State and UNLV. They also gave up a ton of points in those games. Utah State has scored 14 or fewer in 3 of their last 4. I just don't see anyway these two get into the 60's. 

UNDER is 7-0 in Utah State's last 7 road games on Saturday. It's also 12-4 in Fresno State's last 16 as a favorite and 15-6 in their last 21 conference games. 

UNDER is 43-17 (72%) over the last 10 seasons when you have a strong offensive team (Fresno ST) that averages 390-44 yards/game facing a terrible defensive team (Utah St) that is giving up 440+ yards/game at least 7 games into the season and has allowed 475 or more yards in 3 straight games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Wake Forest/Virginia Tech under 61½ -105

I just think there's some decent value with the UNDER at this price. The Demon Deacons have to be feeling the pressure of what's at stake. A win here and next week's game against Clemson will be for top spot in the Atlantic. 

No way is Virginia Tech not going to put up a fight, especially with the Hokies paying tribute to their great defensive coordinator Bud Foster. The Hokies are going to give every once they have in this one. 

Offensively Va Tech is hoping Hendon Hooker will be back, but with or without him, I think they know their best chance of beating this WF team is to control the ball and not let this get into a shootout. 

UNDER is 6-0 in Wake's last 6 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 13-4 in the 17 games Justin Fuente has coached against a team that's won more than 75% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bengals/Rams under 48 -110

I look for the Bengals and Rams to stay UNDER the mark set by the books in Sunday's action at Wembley Stadium in London. For two teams to combine for a total this high, you need production from both offenses. 

I don't think we are going to get that. Cincinnati's offense has scored 17 or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games and a big reason for those offensive struggles is they can't run the ball. Bengals are dead last in the NFL, averaging a mere 53.1 ypg on the ground. 

A lot of people questioned the Rams moves to send Peters away and bring in Jalen Ramsey. Hard to argue with the results in their first game with Ramsey, as they held the Falcons to just 10 points and 224 total yards. 

Another key factor here that should help both defenses is the familiarity with the offensive schemes, as Bengals new head coach Zac Taylor came over from LA and is trying to run the same schemes he learned under McVay. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys SNF HEAVY HITTER on Eagles/Cowboys under 50 -110

We are getting great value on the UNDER as the books always inflate the number on the total in these prime time games. You also got two division rivals that are very familiar with one another. Last 5 games in the series have all finished with fewer than 50 points in regulation. 

Cowboys offense has hit a road block as they have taken a step up in competition and I just don't see them doing a lot against that talented Eagles front that is outstanding against the run. Key here is that Dallas is a pretty good defensive team. They are in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. Take UNDER! 

4* NFL - AFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Bengals under 44½ -110

I don't see these two teams coming close to the total posted by the books. As much as we keep hearing about Minshew Mania you would think the Jags are scoring 30+ points/game. Their season high for a game is 23 and that was against the Cardinals. 

I know the Bengals defense isn't great, but they are at home and I think this team truly wants to win a game unlike some other tanking teams. They have come close. Cincinnati is 0-6 with 4 loss by less than a touchdown. I think they keep the Jags in check and at the same time the Jacksonville defense should have no problem keeping the Bengals in check. 

UNDER is 8-1 in the Jags last 9 off an upset loss as a favorite and 10-1 in their last 11 after failing to cover 2 of the last 3. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 vs awful defensive teams that are giving up 6 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER 44.5! 

3* NCAAF - Late Night TOTAL BAILOUT on Air Force/Hawaii over 65½ -120

Easy play on the OVER 65.5 in Saturday's late night action with Hawaii hosting Air Force. Hawaii features a potent offense that averages 37.0 ppg and 473 ypg. They have scored 31 or more in every game but one and that was a road game at Washington. 

Air Force has allowed no fewer than 23 in any game this season vs a FBS opponent. I don't see the Falcons ending that streak in this one. In fact, I think both teams easily eclipse the 30-point mark. 

OVER is 38-19 in Air Force's last 57 road games after a cover and 8-1 in their last 9 road games if the last one was against a conference foe. OVER is also 19-8 in Hawaii's last 27 as a home dog of 7 or less and 14-4 i their last 18 at home after a 2-game road trip. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF - C Carolina/G Southern Side/Total Parlay on Georgia Southern -6½ & UNDER 45½

I like both the side and total in Saturday's Sun Belt showdown between Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern. Last time out the Eagles held South Alabama to just 17 points and I don't see them allowing much in this one. 

Coastal Carolina just gave up 350 yards rushing last time out to Georgia State. All Georgia Southern wants to do is run the ball with that option attack. These option teams are not fun to face and I just think the Chanticleers are going to want nothing to do with being cut block all game. 

Coastal Carolina is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games and have failed to cover 6 straight conference games. Eagles are 7-3 ATS last 10 at home. UNDER is 5-2 in Chanticleers last 7 off a loss and 12-4 in Georgia Southern's last 16 after giving up 20+ points. Take Georgia Southern & UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER on New Mexico/Wyoming under 49½ -110

I see a ton of value here with the total in Saturday's MWC action between New Mexico and Wyoming. I just don't see these two sniffing 50 points. The only FBS team that the Lobos have scored more than 21 against is an awful New Mexico State team and it's not like the other have been against stiff competition. 

UNDER has cashed in each the last 3 games for New Mexico and is 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs a team with a winning record. I just don't see this team being able to do much at all. 

On the flip side, Wyoming's offense is also limited. They have scored 23 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. UNDER is 11-5 in the Cowboys last 16 conference games, 7-3 in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3-1 in their last 14 off a loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Power 5 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oregon State/California under 52½ -109

I think because Oregon State is so bad defensively, people just assume even a limited offense like Cal will be able to score at will. The Golden Bears only scored 27 at home against Cal Davis and 23 at home to a North Texas team that allowed 46 to Houston (after King red-shirted) and 45 to Southern Miss. 

It's just not Cal's style of play. They are going to grind out the game regardless of who they are playing. They should have no problem doing that against the Beavers on Saturday. 

UNDER is 5-1 in Cal's 6 games this season and 22-8 in their 30 games played with Justin Wilcox as head coach. UNDER is 6-0 in their last 6 off a conference loss and 10-1 in their last 11 conference games. Take UNDER! 

5* NFL - Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Redskins/Dolphins under 42 -104

I love the UNDER in Week 6's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. You got the 0-5 Redskins facing off against the 0-4 Dolphins. While both of these defenses have given up a lot of points, these are two horrible offensive teams. 

Miami comes in averaging 6.5 ppg and 225 ypg. The Redskins aren't that much better at 14.6 ppg and 281 ypg. Key here is I think we get a big effort here defensively from both teams as both know this is going to be one of their rare opportunities for a win in 2019. I also think we get a big effort from the Dolphins coming off a bye and Washington should play harder than normal after watching their head coach get fired. 

UNDER is 31-16 in the Redskins last 47 games off a road loss by 10 or more and 8-1 in their last 9 when off a loss of 14 or more. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Dolphins last 7 off a loss by 14 or more. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Georgia Tech/Duke under 49½ -110

UNDER is worth a look in Saturday's ACC matchup between Duke and Georgia Tech. For starters, the Yellow Jackets are atrocious on the offensive side of the ball. They are averaging a mere 15.2 ppg and 296 ypg. Last time they were on the road they scored just 2 points at Temple. 

Prior to giving up 33 to Pitt, Duke had held their previous 3 opponents under 20 points. It will be a struggle here for the Yellow Jackets just to get to 14 points. Duke's averaging 32.8 ppg, but I see them being up early and just eating up the clock with the run game. They got much bigger games on deck against Virginia and North Carolina. 

UNDER is 15-5 in the 20 games under head coach David Cutcliffe where his team is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miss State/Tennessee under 53 -102

All you need to know that there's value with the UNDER at this price is the fact that the UNDER is 14-4 in Mississippi State's last 18 conference games and the average combined score in these matchups is a mere 43.9 points. 

There's plenty of reason to believe these two will keep that trend rolling. In the Vols last two games they have scored a mere 14 points against Georgia and 3 against Florida. I know last time out the Bulldogs gave up 56 to Auburn, but they held Kentucky to just 13 the game before. Mississippi State is also coming off a bye, so they are going to be 100% locked into what the Vols are doing. 

Tennessee's defense has given up a lot of points the last two games, but Mississippi State is not a great offensive team. They don't have much of a passing game and Tennessee's defense is much better against the run than they are the pass. 

UNDER is also 21-7 in Bulldogs last 28 off a game where 70 or more total points were scored, 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 6-0 in their last 6 games played in October. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF - WEEKNIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Virginia/Miami-FL under 43½ -110

I don't expect to see a whole lot of offense in this game. Don't be fooled by Miami's last game against Va Tech where they saw 82 combined points in a 42-35 upset win by the Hokies. Hurricanes had 5 turnovers in the first half and trailed 28-7. They had no choice but to turn it into a track meet. 

Manny Diaz was not happy with the defensive showing and he's taking more control of that side of the ball. Virginia's offense is not great. They want to beat you with ball control and strong defense. Last year's final between these two was 16-13 and that was with a total of 47. I also think this being a weekday prime time game at home will add some life to that Miami defense. 

Hurricanes offense should be better with Perry, but it's also limited. They don't have much of a running game, so it's not going to be easy against this stingy Cavaliers defense. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 20 points. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Hurricanes last 29 overall, 14-5 in their last 19 vs a conference opponent and 15-2 in their last 17 after playing their previous game against a conference opponent. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL -Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR  on Packers/Cowboys under 47 -110

Forget who will cover the spread, there's huge value with the UNDER in Sunday's NFC matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. 

Don't let the poor showing by Green Bay's defense in that Thursday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Just about every team struggles defensively when playing on just 3 days of rest. Prior to that this team had been outstanding on defense, holding each of their first 3 opponents to 16 or fewer points. 

Cowboys offense looked great in their first 3 games, scoring 30+, but then managed just 10 points at New Orleans last week. I think the Dallas offense was a bit of fools gold, as they had played 3 really bad defensive teams in the Giants, Redskins and Eagles. I think they have a tough time moving the ball in this game. 

Packers got Aaron Rodgers, but they have not looked great offensively early on. The only real positive was that TNF game against the Eagles, and it's even harder on the road team's defense in those weekday matchups. Cowboys defense has been rock-solid all season long. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bucs/Saints under 47 -110

The books have completely missed the mark here with the total. This is a different Saints team right now with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. They got to rely a lot more on the defense and hope the offense can do enough to win. Without the explosive plays on offense, there's just fewer possessions for scoring. 

Big key here is that New Orleans has the defense to carry the load, especially at home where they can feed off of that rowdy crowd. We are simply seeing a high number here because Tampa is off a game against the Rams where they put up 55 and allowed 40. Saints don't have anything close to the offense of LA and are a much stronger defensive team. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Bucs last 17 off a upset win as a dog by 14 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30 or more. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Saints last 9 off a SU win and 9-2 in their last 11 vs another team from the NFC. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bengals/Steelers over 43½ -110

Big time value here with the OVER at this price. While there's some big names missing on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, there's more than enough talent to score on the two defenses that will be playing. 

Steelers are giving up 28.3 ppg and have struggled against both the run and the pass. Teams are averaging 139 ypg on the ground and 303 through the air with 8.7 yards/completion. Bengals are allowing 27.7 ppg. They are giving up 169 rushing yards/game and while they are only giving up 238 ypg thru the air, they too are allowing 8.7 yards/completion. Teams are averaging 6.4 yards/play against the Steelers and 6.6 yards/play against the Bengals. 

OVER is 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 home games and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 vs a division opponent. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL - Bears/Redskins MNF Total NO-BRAINER on Bears/Redskins over 41 -105

Love the value here with the OVER between the Bears/Redskins on Monday Night Football. This might seem like a solid number given how bad Chicago's offense has looked in the first two games, but I think we are going to see the Bears put up a big number here. 

Chicago has played a couple of solid defenses the first two weeks and now get a much easier opponent in the Redskins. Washington is giving up over 30 points/game and the key stat for me is the run defense. Redskins are allowing 168 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. I think getting that running game going will really open up some big plays in the air. 

Redskins saw a combined 59 points with a total of just 44 in Week 1 at Philadelphia and 52 with a total of 46 in last week's loss at home to the Cowboys. OVER is 13-4 in the Bears last 17 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games at home. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER under 44½ -110

I think we are getting some value here with the UNDER in Sunday's AFC matchup between the Bills and Bengals. Buffalo is a team that likes to win ugly. They want to wear you down with the run game and let their defense do the talking. Given how limited the offense is and how good the defense is, it's the perfect type of team for UNDERs. 

Bengals offense has not exactly looked great. Andy Dalton threw for almost 400 yards at Seattle and yet they only could manage 20 points. Last week they had almost 300 in the air and finished with 17. They have no rushing attack. They got 59 yards rushing in two games combined. 

Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and are giving up just 198 ypg and 4.6 yards/pass attempt. I know the competition hasn't been great (Jets & Giants), but I think we can trust they are going to be good on that side again. 

Bengals defense isn't great, but it's a lot better than it was last week against the 49ers and definitely capable of keeping Buffalo from going off. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF - Tulsa/Wyoming Total DOMINATOR on Wyoming/Tulsa under 45 -110

I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well. 

Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg. 

I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half). 

Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Houston/Tulane Total NO-BRAINER on Under 57.5

I really like the value here with the UNDER in tonight's American Athletic showdown between Houston and Tulane. I think the number here is a lot higher than it should be because of how poor the Cougars defense has looked thru the first 3 weeks of the season. 

Houston is giving up 32.3 ppg and 506 ypg, but that's because they played two of the best offenses in the country in Oklahoma and Washington State. Defense actually played well for a good portion of that game last week against the Cougars. 

Tulane is not a team that looks to put a ton of points on the scoreboard. Green Wave are built around running the football and stopping the run. Tulane is putting up 5.9 yards/carry on the ground and giving up just 3.0 ypg. They are the ideal team for a low-scoring game, as they will limit the number of possessions with all the clock they eat up. 

Last year the Cougars defense wasn't great and they held Tulane to just 17 points. Houston had 48 in that one and the game still stayed under the total of 68. Last time they played in Tulane the two combined for only 37. 

UNDER is 44-16 (73%) in the first month of the season when you have a total of 56.5 to 63 with a team (Houston) that has lost 2 of their first 3 games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/Ravens under 47 -115

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's Week 2 NFL action between Arizona and Baltimore. I just think the total here is way too high. I get the Ravens offense looked unbelievable in Week 1, but I think that more of who they played than who they are. 

Miami is a mess right now and it feels like management wants to lose right now and increase their chances of getting a QB with a top pick in next year's draft. I think it's the right move to make if you don't have that position solidified. The problem is the players aren't a fan. They want to win. The Dolphins players were really upset about them trading Tunsil prior to Week 1. I think their lack of effort is why Baltimore looked so good. 

Arizona's defense is going to put up a much bigger fight here. No one player will be more motivated for this one than Cardinals new linebacker Terrell Suggs, who made his name with Baltimore. I also think we see the Ravens run the ball a lot more this week, which will eat up the clock and limit the number of possessions. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Western Kentucky/Louisville under 51½ -110

I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER. I think when most people think of WKU and Louisville they think of high-scoring offenses and sub-par defenses. That's just not how these two teams are anymore. 

Scott Satterfield is the new head coach at Louisville coming over from App State. I know they gave up 35 to Notre Dame, but the defense had their moments and that's a good ND offense with a top tier QB. Last week they pitched a shutout at Eastern Kentucky, giving up just 172 total yards. 

Tyson Helton is the new HC at Western Kentucky and he's the brother of USC head coach Clay Helton. Hilltoppers held FIU to just 14 points and 217 total yards on the road last week. 

These two teams also combined for just 37 points last year with a total of 54. I see this being a very similar type of game. 

Great system in play here. Non-conference games played at a neutral site with a total of 49.5 to 56 with two teams who are strong defensively (allowing 280 to 330 yards/game) have gone UNDER the total 38 out of the last 46 (83%). This system dates back to 1992, so it's no fluke. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Wake Forest/Rice under 59 -105

The books have set the total way too high for Friday's showdown between Rice and Wake Forest. While the Demon Deacons just played in a shootout last week against Utah State, the Owls lost 14-7 at Army, coming no where close to the total of 46.5. 

I don't think Rice is getting enough credit for what they did on the road against Army last week. While Army had 231 rushing yards, they needed 56 attempts to get there. Now they head home for a pretty big home game, as this is one of just two FBS matchups on the board tonight. I look for the defense to feed off the home crowd. 

I could see Rice scoring more than 7-points this week, but I don't think they are going to light up the scoreboard. Owls only attempted 14 passes last week and when you focus on the run and can't pick up big yards in the air, you eat up a lot clock. 

UNDER has cashed in 15 of the Demon Deacons last 20 games vs a team with a losing record and 4-0-1 in the Owls last 5 after totaling fewer than 170 yards in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* Clemson/Alabama Total Winner on  UNDER

The first two times these two met they played some really high-scoring games, but last year was a defensive struggle that Alabama won 24-6. I get that both teams have transitioned to younger and more talented quarterbacks. I just don't see the kind of up and down the field type of game needed to eclipse a total of this magnitude. 

Both of these teams are absolutely loaded with talent on the defensive side of the ball and I just think both of these offensive lines are going to have a tough time keeping the opposing teams' defensive line out of their backfield. I think there's going to be a lot of negative plays, which should cause a lot of 3rd and long situations that allow the defense to get off the field. I also think scoring (touchdowns) in the red-zone will be tough for both sides. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Jets/Packers Over/Under Winner on Jets UNDER

Green Bay shouldn't be a favorite on the road against New York and the books have set the total way too high.

The Packers lost 24-17 at Chicago last week. A game if they had won, would have put them in a position to still have a shot at the playoffs. Now these last two games mean absolutely nothing and that can't be an easy pill to swallow when you have Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback. It's Super Bowl or bust with that kind of talent behind center. 

I know Rodgers is playing and the Packers are saying all the right things, like they are going to give these last two their best shot, but I'm not buying it for a second. I think the only thing on the mind for a lot of these players is getting this game over with so they can get home to their families for Christmas. 

The Jets also don't have anything to play for, but that was kind of to be expected with a rookie quarterback. There's plenty of incentive for New York to try and build some momentum for next year in these final few games. They certainly have been playing hard of late. They really should be riding a 3-game winning steak. They had a 13-point 2nd half lead in a 4-point loss to the Titans, beat Buffalo 27-23 a couple weeks back and last week gave the Texans all they could handle. 

I just think this is a great spot for the Jets to get a win at home in what is likely going to be an ugly grind it out kind of game. Keep in mind that even with Rodgers the Packers offense has struggled, scoring 17 in 3 of their last 4.

Jets are 35-18 ATS in their last 53 home games after playing their previous game at home and a 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games when coming off a home loss. UNDER is 6-2 in the Packers last 8 games overall and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take New York & UNDER! 

3* Dollar General Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo/Troy UNDER

I think there's a ton of value here with the Trojans at basically a pick'em and this game going UNDER the total set here by the books. 

Buffalo suffered a crushing 30-29 loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, despite having a 29-10 lead at the half. That loss will be a tough one for the Bulls to bounce back from and the even bigger thing is the MAC simply wasn't that good. We already saw Northern Illinois get rolled in their bowl game against UAB. 

Troy won at Nebraska and were one of the best bets in the country this year with a 8-3 ATS mark. A big reason for that is their defense, which only gave up 21.2 ppg. I think they have no problem slowing down the high-powered attack of Buffalo. 

The Bulls do have a good defense, so I'm expecting Troy to go off, which is why I think there's a big time correlation here with the Trojans and the UNDER

Troy is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 games overall and 42-20-2 ATS last 64 vs a team with a winning record. Bulls are 6-18 ATS last 24 off a conference loss by 7 or less and 0-5 ATS last 5 on a neutral site. 

UNDER is 10-4 in Buffalo's last 14 off a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 road games off a conference loss. UNDER is also 12-4-1 in Trojans last 17 games played on fieldturf. Take Troy & UNDER! 

3* Idaho Potato Bowl TOTAL DESTROYER on BYU OVER

The books have simply not set the total high enough for this one. I think BYU could flirt with covering the number on their own, as we saw Western Michigan give up some huge numbers down the stretch. 

The Broncos last 4 games they gave up 51 to Toledo, 59 to Ohio 42 to Ball State and 21 to Northern Illinois. The key thing to note about the finale against the Huskies, is that's a really bad Northern Illinois offense and the game meant nothing to them, as they had already secured a spot in the MAC title game the next week against Buffalo. 

Don't be fooled by BYU only averaging 25.4 ppg. They play a really tough schedule for an Independent. They started the year with 3 straight against Arizona, Cal and Wisconsin. They also played Washington and Utah later in the year out of the Power 5. Not to mention games against Utah State, Northern Illinois and Boise State. Just about all of these teams are above average defensively. 

Had BYU played Western Michigan's schedule I'm confident they would have averaged closer to 35 ppg. The offense was also better once they went with Zach Wilson at quarterback. 

I look for the Cougars to put up a bunch of points and while the BYU defense is decent, I think the Broncos will put up more than enough to push us over the mark. Take the OVER! 

4* Bahamas Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on Toledo UNDER

The total for this game was simply set way too high by the books, as this thing figures to be a lot more of a defensive battle than you would think for two teams that put up quite a few points. 

FIU finished the year averaging 34.6 ppg, but a lot of that was them pouring it on bad teams. The only teams they reached at least 30 points against were UMass, ARK-Pine Bluff, Rice, WKU, UTSA and Charlotte. 

It was a very similar story for Toledo. The Rockets put up 41.1 ppg, but the only teams they eclipsed 30 points against were VMI, Nevada, Bowling Green, W Michigan, Ball St, Kent St and C Michigan. 

These are two strong defensive teams and there's plenty of motivation for both teams in this one. Toledo hasn't won a bowl game since 2015 and there's still got to be a sour taste in their mouths from last year's 34-0 loss to Appalachian State as a 7-point favorite in the Dollar General Bowl. 

As for the Panthers, they haven't won a bowl game since 2010 and with a win can set a new school record for wins in a single season. Last year they lost 28-3 to Temple in the Gasparilla Bowl. Take the UNDER! 

4* Gasparilla Bowl Total NO-BRAINER on Marshall/South Florida UNDER

I just don't see these two teams coming anywhere close to this total. USF is known for having a high-powered offense and they were putting up some big numbers early in the year, but they were one of the worst offenses in the country to close out the season. 

In the Bulls last 4 games they averaged just 16.3 ppg. Marshall has one of the best defenses of all the Group of 5 teams. They allowed just 22 ppg and were outstanding against the run, giving up only 2.9 yards/carry and 104 yards/game. 

I believe for USF's offense to score a bunch of points they have to be able to run the football and I just don't see Marshall giving up a big number on the ground. There's also a good chance that starting QB Blake Barnett doesn't play. 

As for the Thundering Herd offense, it's struggled to get going and I think we saw just how limited they are when they could only put up 20 points against an struggling Virginia Tech defense. I'm not saying neither team is going to score, I just don't see either side eclipsing the 30 points mark. Take the UNDER!