Sports Picks & Predictions

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Toledo -6.5 

The Toledo Rockets are undervalued right now because they lost two straight road games to Bowling Green and Ball State in ugly fashion.  But as usual, the Rockets have a tremendous home-field advantage, and that will be the case again here in a standalone MAC Tuesday night home game.  The Rockets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season winning by 15.5 points per game. 

Kent State is certainly improved this season, but let’s be honest, they haven’t beaten anyone.  The Golden Flashes are 3-5 this season with their three wins coming against Kennesaw State (by 3), Bowling Green and Akron.  They are 0-5 against everyone else with all five losses by 7 points or more and by an average of 24.8 points per game. 

Toledo will have a massive advantage on the ground in this game.  The Rockets are rushing for 245 yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  Kent State gives up a whopping 251 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  I just don’t see how the Golden Flashes are going to get off the field with their run defense.  Toledo should be able to score at will. 

Toledo is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Kent State with all four wins coming by double-digits and by an average of 19 points per game.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a. Winning record.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Toledo is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.  Bet Toledo Tuesday. 

15* Fresno State/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -1.5 

No team covered more spreads than Fresno State and Jeff Tedford for two seasons running in 2017 and 2018.  As a result, the Bulldogs came into 2019 way overvalued, and bettors just seem to be stuck on the past.  The fact of the matter is this is a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs as they returned only nine starters, including three on offense.  They simply aren’t as good as they were in 2017 and 2018. 

Indeed, Fresno State is just 3-4 SU & 2-4-1 ATS through its first seven games of the season.  Their three wins have come against Sacramento State by 14 as 24.5-point favorites, New Mexico State by 13 as 21-point favorites, and UNLV by 29 as 16.5-point favorites.  Those are two of the worst FBS teams in the country and an FCS team. 

When Fresno State has stepped up in class, they have lost.  They lost their first two games of the season to USC and Minnesota.  Then in conference play they lost 24-43 at Air Force as 3-point dogs and were thoroughly outplayed.  And last week they were upset 31-41 by Colorado State at home as 13.5-point favorites.  They gave up 500 total yards to Colorado State.  Their defense has suffered the biggest drop off as they have allowed 31 or more points four times this year. 

Hawaii is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rainbow Warriors are 5-3 this season with their only losses coming to Washington and Boise State on the road, as well as Air Force at home.  They have impressive wins over Arizona and Oregon State in the Pac-12, a dominant 54-3 win at Nevada, and a solid 45-31 win at New Mexico last week. 

I think a big reason we are getting Hawaii as less than a field goal favorite was due to that 45-31 win at New Mexico last week.  That final score was a lot closer than the game really was.  In fact, Hawaii led New Mexico 45-10 with just under eight minutes left in the game.  They pulled their starters, and New Mexico tacked on three touchdowns in the final eight minutes.  It was certainly a misleading final. 

Fresno State’s soft defense that is allowing 31.0 points per game this season will now get a huge test up against an explosive Hawaii offense that is putting up 36.6 points and 488.1 yards per game this season.  Head coach Nick Rolovich has implemented the run-and-shoot offense, and his players are executing it to perfection now.  It’s a veteran Hawaii team that returned 18 starters this year and is in Year 2 of the season. 

Fresno State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset loss a home favorite.  The Bulldogs are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games off a home loss.  Hawaii is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games after gaining 575 or more total yards in its previous game.  Jeff Tedford is 0-8 ATS when he total is 63.5 to 70 in all games he has coached having never covered the spread in this situation.  Tedford is also 12-26 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Take Hawaii Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -6.5 

The UCLA Bruins have the same feel of last year.  They started terribly last year and finished strong.  And this year they are doing the same thing.  They played as tough a schedule as anyone in the early going and opened 1-5.  But they have since pulled outright upsets over Stanford and Arizona State each of the last two weeks in dominant fashion. 

Now, at 3-5 the Bruins feel like they can make a run at a bowl game.  They still have home games against Colorado and California left which are two games they should win.  And I’m taking them this week against Colorado in a game they only have to win by a touchdown or more to cover this 6.5-point spread. 

Two weeks ago, UCLA got Dorian Thompson-Robinson back at QB from injury after he had miss the previous two games in losses to Oregon State and Arizona.  It made all the difference.  UCLA blitzed Stanford 34-16 on the road and outgained the Cardinal by 257 yards while racking up 455 total yards. 

Last week, I was on UCLA as 4-point home dogs to Arizona State.  They stormed out to a 42-10 lead by the end of the third quarter before pulling their starters.  Arizona State actually outscored UCLA 22-0 in the fourth quarter to make it a misleading 42-32 final.  I think that works in our favor here.  If UCLA had won 42-10 like they should have, the Bruins would be more than 6.5-point favorites here. 

I also think Colorado is getting too much respect for its close 31-35 home loss to USC last week.  Well, that was a USC team in a sandwich spot off a big game against Notre Dame the previous week, and with a game on deck against Oregon.  The Trojans came out flat and it nearly cost them.  But they rallied from a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes to win.  Now, Colorado has to be deflated from that defeat because it was their chance to beat USC for the first time in school history.  I think the Buffaloes now suffer a hangover from that loss. 

It’s not like the Buffaloes were even competitive before that loss to USC, either.  They had gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with an upset home loss to Arizona, and blowout road losses to Oregon (3-45) as 23-point dogs and at Washington State (10-41) as 13.5-point dogs.  Simply put, this Colorado team just isn’t very good, going 1-4 in conference play and getting outscored by 15.8 points per game.  UCLA is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in conference play, outscoring opponents by 2.4 points per game. 

Colorado is 0-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 1-12 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points per scored over the last three years.  The Buffaloes are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight November games.  The Bruins are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Colorado is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games.  Bet UCLA Saturday. 

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +20 

This is a great spot to fade the Auburn Tigers.  Auburn just suffered its dream-crushing loss to LSU last week.  That was the 2nd SEC loss for the Tigers, who certainly won’t be winning the SEC West now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that 20-23 defeat to LSU. 

Not to mention, it was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  LSU outgained Auburn by 221 yards.  They moved the ball up and down the field on Auburn’s defense with 508 total yards.  But they just couldn’t convert in the red zone, which was the only reason it was even close.  Bo Nix had another terrible game completing just 15 of his 35 pass attempts for 157 yards.  Now Auburn has to try and get back up off the mat and put away Ole Miss by three touchdowns or more.  That’s a lot to ask 

Ole Miss is coming off a bye week and will be rested and ready to go.  It’s an Ole Miss team that is 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving.  Ole Miss lost 17-24 to Texas A&M last time out.  But they were covering almost the entire way in that game as 6-point dogs. 

Texas A&M got a 62-yard fumble recovery TD that gave them their first lead of the game, and they scored another TD with only 2:34 left.  Ole Miss outgained Texas A&M by 65 yards and held them to 340 total yards.  I’ve been very impressed with the improvement of this Ole Miss defense this season under new coordinator Mike MacIntyre.  And the offense is coming around under Rich Rodriquez.  They scored 31 points on Alabama and another 27 at Missouri in their two most recent road games. 

I think the Rebels can go into Auburn and give the Tigers a run for their money this weekend given the favorable spot for the them off the bye week.  And I know I’m going to get max effort out of this Ole Miss team because they sit at 3-5 and are desperate to make a bowl game after missing out on a bowl game by one win with a 5-7 record.  This is kind of their ‘all in’ game this week. 

Ole Miss has only lost one of its last eight meetings with Auburn by more than 18 points.  And that was a 21-point loss a couple years ago.  The Rebels haven’t lost by more than 21 points in any of the last 13 meetings in this series as well.  As you can see, they have pretty much been competitive in every game with Auburn over the last 13 years, especially when factoring in this point-spread range as a level of competitiveness. 

Plays against any team (Auburn) a good offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +7.5 

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS this season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them, just as I did in their last game in their upset win at Miami as 18-point underdogs.  And now they are coming off a bye week, so they will be rested and ready to go while taking away a ton of confidence from that Miami victory. 

Georgia Tech has been more competitive than a 2-5 team.  They were only outgained by more than 49 yards twice, which came against Clemson and North Carolina.  They were only outgained by Temple by 18 yards in a misleading 2-24 road loss.  They actually outgained Duke by 6 yards in a misleading 23-41 road loss.  And they were only outgained by 12 yards by Miami, so there was nothing fluky about that 28-21 (OT) upset road win over the Hurricanes.  It’s safe to say first-year head coach Geoff Collins is doing a great job, and teams with first-year head coaches benefit from bye weeks more than most. 

No question the Pittsburgh Steelers have been impressive this season with a 5-3 record.  But they aren’t the type of team you want to be laying big points with.  In fact, each of Pitt’s last six games have all been decided by 7 points or less.  They only have one win by more than 7 points this year, and that was a lackluster 20-10 home win over Ohio.  What makes it tough to lay points with Pittsburgh is their weak offense, which is averaging just 21.0 points per game this season. 

Pitt and Georgia Tech have met six times since the Panthers joined the ACC.  The series is tied 3-3, but Pitt’s three wins have all come by 5 points or less.  That’s why getting 7.5 points here with the Yellow Jackets at home is such a tremendous value, especially since they are off a bye week and Pitt is coming off a physical, taxing 12-16 home loss to Miami. 

Pittsburgh is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off a home loss.  The Panthers are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 road games off a game where they committed three or more turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Yellow Jackets are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +17.5 

The is a great spot to fade the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  This is a team that went 12-0 in the regular season last year and made the four-team playoff.  They expected to get back.  Now, after suffering their second loss of the season in a ugly 31-point loss at Michigan last week, their dreams of making the playoff have been crushed.  I think they suffer a hangover effect this week as a result. 

The Fighting Irish catch a Virginia Tech team coming off a bye and coming in with momentum.  Everyone left the Hokies for dead after a 35-point loss to Duke to fall to 2-2.  Since then, they’ve gone 3-0 with an upset road win over Miami and an upset home win over North Carolina.  I think it puts to rest any of the doubts that people had about head coach Justin Fuente. 

A big reason for the Hokies’ turnaround this season has been inserting QB Hendon Hooker into the lineup for that Miami game.  He has run away with the QB job ever since and has led the Hokies to an average of 39.7 points per game in his three starts.  Hooker has a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt in those three wins and adds a running element, rushing for 156 yards and a score on 48 carries.  He has everyone on the team believing in him, which is key. 

Notre Dame just hasn’t been that impressive this season.  They were either outgained or only outgained five of their seven opponents by 47 or fewer yards.  The only exceptions were against terrible Bowling Green and New Mexico teams.  They only outgained USC by 47 and Virginia by 5 yards at home.  They only outgained Louisville by 31 yards on the road.  They were outgained at Georgia and outgained by 257 yards at Michigan. 

Plays against home teams (Notre Dame) - a good offensive team scoring 35 or more points per game, off a loss by 21 points or more are 68-32 (68%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Justin Fuente is 10-2 ATS coming off a bye week in all games he has coached.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday. 

20* Navy/UConn ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on UConn +27.5 

Navy is coming off a massive 41-38 home win over Tulane last week to move to 6-1 and put themselves in a great position to play for an AAC title.  I think this is a big letdown spot for the Midshipmen, who will have a hard time getting up for UConn enough to win this game by four touchdowns or more, which is what it will take to cover this massive 27.5-point spread. 

Connecticut is vastly improved this season under Randy Edsall.  They were the youngest team in the country last year, and while still young, Randy Edsall has done a great job of developing his players and getting them to be much more competitive this year.  They are 2-6 SU but have covered each of their last two games in impressive fashion. 

Two weeks ago, UConn outgained Houston by 152 yards but lost 17-24 as 21-point home dogs.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season as the Huskies should have won that game outright.  And last week they went on the road and blitzed UMass 56-35 as 9.5-point favorites and racked up 539 total yards in the win. 

Navy isn’t the type of team to rub the opponent’s noses in the dirt.  If they get up in this game, they aren’t going to keep trying to pour it on.  Plus, their triple-option offense isn’t built for covering big spreads like this. They are built for long, extended drives on the ground that keep the clock moving.  This is the biggest favorite role the Midshipmen have been in all season.  They were 21.5-point favorites against Holy Cross in their opener to compare.  I think the Midshipmen are being overvalued now due to their 6-1 record. 

UConn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 November home games.  The Huskies are 12-2 ATS in their last 12 games after three consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  Navy is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Huskies will be highly motivated for this nationally televised home game and a chance to pull a huge upset against a 6-1 Navy team.  We’ll get their best effort tonight.  Bet UConn Friday. 

15* CFB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Georgia Southern/App State UNDER 44.5 

Two teams who love to run the football and who both have good defenses square off Thursday in this Sun Belt showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.  The clock will be running constantly due to both teams running the football.  This game has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, especially since it will be windy (17 MPH-plus) with a good chance of rain during game time. 

Georgia Southern runs the triple-option.  The Eagles average 53 rushing attempts for 261 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  They only average 10 pass attempts per game.  They’ll be up against a very good Appalachian State defense that is allowing 19 points, 326.6 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  The Mountaineers are only giving up 13.5 points, 249.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their four conference games.  They also only give up 140 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season. 

Appalachian State has a decent offense, there’s no question about that.  They are good at running the football and also run it a lot, averaging 44 attempts for 249 yards per game and 5.7 per carry.  But they have feasted on some bad run defenses this season.  Georgia Southern has a good defense, giving up 342 yards per game and 5.2 per play, holding opponents to 80 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.  The Eagles have been very good against the run, giving up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. 

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  They have combined for 48 or fewer points in all five meetings, and 44 or less in three of them.  Georgia Southern has averaged just 15.8 points and 234.3 yards per game in their last four meetings with Appalachian State.  The Eagles did hold the Mountaineers to just 288 total yards last year and forced five turnovers in an upset victory. 

Georgia Southern is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in its last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Eagles last 17 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Eagles last 10 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mountaineers last six conference games. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 to 49 (Appalachian State) - after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games against an opponent after allowing 7 points or les sin the first half of two straight games are 25-4 (86.2%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Washington State/Oregon ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +14.5 

The Oregon Ducks are coming off a massive comeback road win over Washington last week.  The Ducks trailed that game by double-digits most the way before coming on strong in the second half to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.  I think they are now being overvalued off that huge win here laying more than two touchdowns to a good Washington State team.  It’s also a sandwich spot with a road game at USC on deck. 

Washington State put an end to a tough three-game losing streak with an emphatic 41-10 home win over Colorado last week.  They blew late leads against both UCLA and Arizona State or they’d be 6-1 this season. I think the fact that they are only 4-3 has them undervalued this week. 

Overlooking Washington State has been a regular occurrence every year for Oregon.  It’s clear that the Cougars get up for this game more than the Ducks do, and Mike Leach has them figured out.  Washington State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, covering the spread by a whopping 152 combined points in those nine meetings.  That’s an average cover of 16.9 points per game.  The Cougars have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Ducks and haven’t lost to them by more than 7 points in any of the last five meetings. 

Washington State is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 7-0 ATS when the total is 63.5 to 70 over the last three years.  Throw in the 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, and we have a combined 25-0 system backing the Cougars here.  Roll with Washington State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCLA +4 

We saw last season the UCLA Bruins improve greatly as the season went on in Year 1 under Chip Kelly.  And I think we will see the same thing in the second half this season as the Bruins try and chase down a bowl game after a slow start. 

The biggest reason for UCLA’s slow start is the schedule.  Their schedule ranks as the 6th-toughest in the country thus far.  A big reason for that is a brutal non-conference schedule that featured Cincinnati, San Diego State and Oklahoma.  They got off to a 1-5 start this season and had their stud QB in in Dorian Thompson-Robinson getting hurt. 

Thompson-Robinson missed part of the Arizona loss and the entire Oregon State loss, which explains that defeat.  But he returned against Stanford last week and led the Bruins to an impressive 34-16 road victory as 4-point dogs to the Cardinal.  Now, UCLA has two winnable home games in a row coming up against ASU and Colorado, and if they can win those two games they’d get to 4-5 and in great shape for a bowl game.  That is clearly the goal here. 

I think Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Sun Devils are ranked No. 24 in the country and off to a 5-2 start this season.  But they had a fluky win at Michigan State where they were outgained by 188 yards, they were upset by Colorado at home, they needed a last-second TD to beat Washington State at home, and they only beat Cal by 7 and Sacramento State by 12 as 35.5-point favorites.  They are fortunate to be 5-2 to say the least. 

Arizona State’s true colors showed last week in a 3-21 road loss to Utah where they managed just 136 yards of total offense.  And it’s that dreadful offense that makes it hard for ASU to be laying points on the road here to UCLA, which has the better offense in this matchup, especially with a healthy DTR at QB.  Arizona Stae is averaging just 22.1 points and 365 yards per game this season, including 12.3 points and 239 yards per game in their three road games. 

The Sun Devils are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after having won five or six of their last seven games coming in.  The Bruins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven conference games.  UCLA is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight home meetings.  Take UCLA Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +10.5 

The Missouri Tigers are notorious for beating up on bad teams and losing when they step up in class.  But they even lost to a bad team last week, falling 14-21 as 21.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt.  And there’s no way they should be laying double-digits on the road here against Kentucky. 

I was very impressed with how well Kentucky played last week in a 21-0 loss at Georgia.  They were only outgained by 99 yards by the Bulldogs.  Three of Kentucky’s four losses have come on the road this season.  They are 3-1 at home and should be 4-0 as they missed a chip shot field goal that would have likely given them the upset win over Florida.  Instead, the Gators scored on the next play from scrimmage to win 29-21.  If they can play Florida that tough at home, they certainly will have a chance to pull off the upset here against Missouri. 

The weather is going to help the Wildcats, too.  There is a 100% chance of precipitation.  Kentucky wants to run the ball anyway with WR turned QB Lynn Bowden Jr.  He rushed for 196 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas two weeks ago.  And last week he rushed for 99 yards on 17 carries against Georgia’s vaunted defense. 

Missouri has faced the 77th-toughest schedule in the country this season.  Kentucky has faced the 20th-toughest schedule according to Sagarin, a difference of 57 spots.  So I think the Tigers are overrated and that showed last week in their upset loss at Vanderbilt.  And Kentucky is underrated due to the difficulty of their schedule thus far. 

Kentucky has Missouri’s number.  The Wildcats are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They pulled two outright upsets as more than a touchdown underdogs.  I’m not so sure Missouri should even be favored in this game, let alone a double-digit favorite.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Roll with Kentucky Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Missouri/Kentucky UNDER 45 

Forecasts are calling for 100% chance of precipitation in Lexington for this game between Kentucky and Missouri.  As a result, I’ll back the UNDER in what will be a low-scoring game due to the poor weather, and the resulting game plans by both teams to almost exclusively run the football. 

Kentucky wants to run the ball anyway with WR turned QB Lynn Bowden Jr.  He rushed for 196 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas two weeks ago.  And last week he rushed for 99 yards on 17 carries against Georgia’s vaunted defense.  Since Bowden Jr. took over at QB, the Wildcats have only passed the ball 28 times in two games, or an average of 14 attempts per game. 

Missouri likes to run the football anyway, too.  They average 44 rushing attempts per game compared to 32 passing attempts per game.  Since both teams are going to be keeping the ball on the ground probably 75% to 80% of the time in this game due to weather, that’s going to keep the clock moving and benefit this UNDER greatly. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Kentucky’s last four games overall with combined scores of 41, 31, 44 and 21 points.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Missouri’s last six games overall as they have a worse offense and a better defense than most were expecting coming into the season.  These teams combined for just 29 points in their meeting last season, and a similar result can be expected here due to the weather. 

Kentucky is 7-0 UNDER in weeks 5 through 9 over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Kentucky’s last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Tigers last nine conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Auburn/LSU CBS No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5 

LSU has the best offense in school history this season.  There’s no denying that.  But they will finally get some resistance against the best defense they have faced all season.  And as a result, I think this total of 59.5 between Auburn and LSU has been inflated here Saturday too much due to LSU’s offensive numbers up to this point. 

Auburn’s defense gives up 17.1 points, 319 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 12.9 points, 93 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play less than their season averages. This is an elite Auburn defense that might have the best defensive line in the country. 

LSU’s defense isn’t too shabby, either.  The Tigers give up 20.0 points, 319 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play which is very similar to Auburn’s numbers.  And the key here is that Auburn isn’t going to be able to match LSU score for score because freshman QB Bo Nix hasn’t played well on the big stage. 

In Auburn’s three games against Oregon, Texas A&M & Florida, Nix has gone a combined 37-of-80 (46.2%) passing for 428 yards for an average of just 142.7 passing yards per game.  Auburn’s only hope of keeping this game close is to run the ball and control the clock, which I think they will try and do, and that is going to favor the UNDER. 

This has been an UNDER series.  In fact, 52 of the last 53 meetings in this series have seen 59 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 52-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane/Navy UNDER 57.5 

Two familiar foes who love to run the football meet in a key AAC showdown when Navy hosts Tulane Saturday.  I expect this to be a low-scoring game, and this total of 57.5 is simply too high.  The clock will be moving constantly and both of these defenses are good enough to keep this game UNDER the number. 

Navy is obviously a triple-option team still that runs the ball an average of 60 times per game.  Tulane throws more than last year, but not that much more as they average 45 rushes per game.  Navy averages 34 possession minutes per game as its key is to control the clock, and it has worked out well as the Midshipmen are greatly improved at 5-1 this season. 

The biggest reason for Navy’s improvement has been their defense.  They are only giving up 16.2 points per game, 282 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play, holding opponents to 8.6 points, 81 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages.  They have been great at stopping the run, giving up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry and holding opponents to 64 rushing yards per game and 1.0 per carry less than their season averages. 

Tulane boasts arguably the best defensive line in the AAC.  That gives them a great chance of stopping Navy here.  The Green Wave give up 23.1 points, 347 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this season.  They are giving up 142 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry, holding opponents to 41 rushing yards per game and 0.6 per carry less than their season averages. 

Both of these teams are familiar with one another as this will be the 5th meeting in five years between these teams.  That familiarity will help both in stopping the opposing offenses, which clearly favors the defenses.  And all four previous meetings have seen 57 or fewer combined points and an average of just 45.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points less than this 57.5-point total.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -3 

Yes, I’m on Virginia again this week.  And yes, it’s for many of the same reason.  I really believe this is one of the better teams in the country and they should be 7-0, but since they are not they are still undervalued.  I cashed in with them with ease over Duke in a 48-14 win as 3-point favorites last week.  And I expect them to cover a similar spread this week against Louisville. 

The reason I believe Virginia should be 7-0 is because they lost two games they should have won and are 5-2 instead.  One was a 20-35 loss at Notre Dame as a 10.5-point dog.  They led at halftime but committed five turnovers and gave the game away in the second half.  They were only outgained by 5 yards by Notre Dame.  The other was their 9-17 loss at Miami.  They had six trips inside the Miami 25-yard line and came away with just three field goals, failing to score a single touchdown.  So they basically gave both those games away. 

This is a bad spot for Louisville.  The Cardinals are coming off a 10-45 home loss to Clemson, and I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  They are pretty fortunate to be 4-3 this season because two of their wins came by a combined five points with their 41-39 win over Boston College and 62-59 win over Wake Forest.  Their three losses all came by double-digits, including an 18-point home loss to Notre Dame to give them a common opponent.  

The Cardinals didn’t play Notre Dame nearly as tough as Virginia did, and Virginia was on the road while Louisville was at home.  Another common opponent is Florida State.  Virginia beat Florida State 31-24 at home and outgained them by 86 yards, while Louisville lost 24-35 at Florida State and was outgained by 112 yards. 

Virginia has the much superior defense in this matchup, and that’s another big reason I trust them more.  The Cavaliers are only giving up 19.7 points, 270.3 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 5.7 points, 86 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages.  Louisville gives up 33.4 points, 455.3 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Opponents are averaging 4.6 points, 42 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play more than their season averages on Louisville’s defense. 

Louisville is 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Cardinals are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Virginia Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +6.5 

This is a great spot to fade the Penn State Nittany Lions.  We cashed with Michigan +9 over Penn State last week.  And we’re fading them again this week for many of the season reasons.  I believe the Nittany Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are undefeated and ranked No. 6 in the country and you’re paying a heavy price to back them now, so it’s time to ’sell high’. 

It’s a tough spot for the Nittany Lions.  They are coming off two huge night game victories on the road at Iowa and at home over Michigan.  I question how much they have left in the tank.  Now they face a rested, hungry Michigan State team that is coming off its bye week. 

Everyone has left the Spartans for dead after back-to-back blowout road losses at Ohio State and at Wisconsin, and now it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them.  They lost by 24 at Ohio State and 38-0 at Wisconsin.  It was a 17-0 game at Wisconsin entering the 4th quarter, and they simply ran out of gas and gave up 21 points in the final period. 

But now the Spartans are refreshed with two weeks off and back home.  The Spartans are 3-1 at home this season with their only loss a fluky 7-10 loss to Arizona State.  They outgained ASU by 188 yards in that game.  They are outscoring opponents by 15.3 points and outgaining them by 182 yards per game at home this year. 

Michigan State has outgained five of its seven opponents this season.  Penn State has actually been outgained by 4 of their 7 opponents, which isn’t the sign of a 7-0 team.  They were outgained by Pitt, Buffalo & Michigan at home, and they were also outgained at Iowa.  They have only had to play two true road games all season, and one of those was at Maryland, which was essentially a home game for them. 

Michigan State owns Penn State, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Nittany Lions.  The Spartans won outright as 13.5 & 9.5-point underdogs the last two years.  And I fully expect them to win this game outright and hand the fraudulent Nittany Lions their first loss of the season.  Make sure to sprinkle some on the money line, but we’ll take the +6.5 points for some insurance. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Michigan State) - off two consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference opponents, in weeks 5 through 9 are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Michigan State Saturday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ball State -2.5 

Bettors just haven’t caught on with how good Ball State is this year because expectations were so low on them coming into the season.  And bettors continue to give Ohio too much respect because the Bobcats were picked by many to win the MAC this year as expectations were high.  Getting Ball State as only a 2.5-point home favorite over Ohio Saturday is a gift from oddsmakers. 

It’s Ball State that is the team capable of winning the MAC this year.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in MAC play.  There were signs early in the season that this team was going to be good before we even got into conference play.  They only lost by 10 at Indiana as 17.5-point dogs, and lost by 11 at NC State as 19-point dogs. 

The Cardinals then opened MAC play with two straight outright road wins as underdogs over Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan.  Then they blew the doors off another MAC favorite in Toledo 52-14 at home last week.  They put up 580 total yards on Toledo and held the Rockets to just 309 total yards, so it wasn’t a fluke. 

Ohio is just 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS this season, yet they continue to get respect from the books.  Their three wins have come over Rhode Island, Buffalo (by 1) and Kent State (by 7).  They lost on the road to Pitt and Marshall, were blasted by 25 at home by Lafayette in an upset, and were also upset by Northern Illinois at home.  They gave up 39 points and 510 total yards to a bad NIU offense, while Ball State held NIU to 20 points and 388 yards to give them a common opponent. 

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It’s time for the Cardinals to exact some revenge on Ohio after getting blown out by them the last two seasons.  Take Ball State Saturday. 

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +14 

The Wyoming Cowboys are one of the most fraudulent teams in college football.  They are 5-2 this season but could easily be 2-5.  Four of their five wins have come by 13 points or less with the only exception being a blowout win over a bad UNLV team.  They beat Idaho by 5 as 27.5-point favorites and New Mexico by 13 as 17-point favorites.  They should not be laying 14 points to Nevada here. 

The numbers show that Wyoming is a fraud.  The Cowboys have been outgained in six of their seven games this season, including by Texas State, Idaho, Tulsa and New Mexico, which are four bad teams.  They are getting outgained by 47 yards per game on the season. 

Nevada is one of the better teams in the Mountain West.  They are 4-3 this season with their only losses coming to Oregon, Hawaii and Utah State.  I know they have been going through a QB carousel, but I’m not too concerned about it because Wyoming has an awful offense that won’t be able to put away Nevada no matter who is under center. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Nevada) - off one or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Nevada Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +10.5 

Everyone has left Northwestern for dead with their 1-5 start this season.  This is exactly the time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats and head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who thrive in this underdog role with their backs against the wall. 

The biggest reason for Northwestern’s struggles this season has been the schedule.  In fact, Northwestern has faced the No. 1 toughest schedule in the entire country according to Sagarin.  They have played Stanford, Wisconsin and Nebraska on the road, and Ohio State and Michigan State at home.  That is simply murderer’s row. 

The Wildcats have had an extra day to recover and regroup from their 3-52 home loss to Ohio State last Friday.  Now, they face an Iowa Hawkeyes team that is more on their level.  And it’s a Hawkeyes team that they own, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with two outright wins as double-digit underdogs. 

The Hawkeyes feasted on an early easy schedule of Miami Ohio, Rutgers, Iowa State and Middle Tennessee en route to a 4-0 start, and they were fortunate to beat Iowa State.  But reality has set in since they got into Big Ten play, going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS with their only win coming against Purdue 26-20 as 17.5-point favorites. 

Iowa’s offensive line is a mess right now due to injury and poor performance.  They are averaging just 57.7 rushing yards per game and 1.9 yards per carry in Big Ten play.  Their inability to run the ball is putting too much pressure on QB Nate Stanley, who is also without his favorite receiver in Brandon Smith (33 receptions, 407 yards, 4 TD) due to injury.  You just can’t trust this Iowa offense to be laying double-digits on the road. 

Northwestern is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Northwestern is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last two years.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Northwestern Saturday. 

20* SMU/Houston ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on SMU -13 

The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season while covering the spread by a combined 81 points.  They are covering by an average of 11.6 points per game, which really shows how underrated this team has been. 

Now, SMU is laying less than two touchdowns to a Houston team that is in rebuilding mode.  We’ll gladly back the Mustangs in what will be yet another blowout victory in their favor tonight.  This is their chance to show the world how good they are with a standalone week night ESPN game, so I’m not worried at all about them having a letdown. 

Houston pretty much sealed its fate when all-everything QB D’Eriq King and his favorite WR in Keith Corbin decided to redshirt after four games this season.  Houston has gone 2-1 since, but just 1-2 ATS and their two wins were against North Texas and UConn.  They lost by 15 at home to Cincinnati and will suffer a similar fate here against SMU. 

Last week, Houston barely beat UConn 24-17 as 21.5-point favorites.  That’s a UConn team that is one of the worst in all of college football.  And Houston really should have lost that game as they were dominated in the box score.  The Cougars managed just 286 total yards and gave up 438 yards to the Huskies, getting outgained by a whopping 152 yards. 

SMU boasts a high-powered offense led by Texas transfer Shane Buechele at quarterback.  They re putting up 44.3 pints and 521.1 yards per game this season.  I expect them to match or exceed their season average considering they will be up against a soft Houston defense that allows 30.7 points and 473.9 yards per game this season.  SMU has scored at least 41 points in six straight games, including against some good defenses in TCU, Temple and Tulsa. 

I have been impressed with the improvement of SMU’s defense as much as anything this season, especially under an offensive-minded head coach like Sonny Dykes.  They hold opponents to 370 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play, limiting them to 27 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play less than their season averages.  So, this is an above-average defense coupled with one of the best offenses in the country.  I don’t see any way Houston gets to 30 points in this one, which is at least what it will take to cover this spread. 

The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference games.  Bet SMU Thursday. 

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada +21 

The Utah State Aggies are getting treated like the team they were last year and not like the team they are this year by oddsmakers.  They had one of their best seasons in program history last year and lost head coach Matt Wells to Texas Tech as a result.  Former Utah State head coach Gary Anderson has returned to the program, and the cupboard was left bare as the Aggies returned only nine starters this year. 

Utah State is off to a 3-2 start this season, but it only has one win by more than 10 points, and that came against FCS opponent Stony Brook.  In no way should the Aggies be favored by three touchdowns over Nevada here.  They only beat a bad Colorado State team 34-24 as 23.5-point favorites in their last home game, and they lost 6-42 at LSU last time out.  They simply aren’t nearly as good as they were last year. 

Nevada returned from its bye with a solid 41-38 home win against an improved San Jose State team last week.  Nevada was up 24-3 before taking its foot off the gas, so that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And it was the first start from former Florida State transfer Malik Henry at quarterback, and he was brilliant in leading the Wolf Pack to 41 points. 

Henry was the #2 dual-threat QB in the country coming out of high school, but he had some depression issues at FSU that held him back.  He has found a home here in Nevada now, and things are looking up for him after a great start last week.  Henry threw for 352 yards and a touchdown against SJSU last week.  Look for him to try and match Utah State QB Jordan Love score for score in this one. 

Nevada has had Utah State’s number in recent years.  Nevada is 8-3 SU in the last 11 meetings with its three losses coming by 4, 4 and 2 points.  As you can see, Utah State hasn’t beaten Nevada by more than 4 points in any of the last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Wolf Pack pertaining to this 21-point spread.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -1.5 

I believe the Wake Forest Demon Deacons got the humbling they needed last week against Louisville.  They opened 5-0 before losing to the Cardinals 59-62 at home last week.  It was a game they deserved to win as they outgained the Cardinals by 148 yards.  But because they lost that game and they aren’t 6-0 now, we are getting the Demon Deacons at only -1.5 when they would probably be more than 3-point favorites had they won that game. 

Florida State’s biggest rival is Clemson, and they lost to the Tigers 14-45 last week.  I think the Seminoles suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and won’t be up for Wake Forest this week as a result.  Clemson outgained the Seminoles by 299 yards and held them to just 253 yards while forcing four turnovers in the win. 

I realize Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman was knocked out of the Louisville game with a shoulder injury.  However, I don’t think there’s any difference between Newman and backup Sam Hartman, who gained starting experience for the Demon Deacons last year and is ready to go if called upon.  Hartman went 9-of-15 for 172 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for a score in place of an injured Newman last week and nearly led the comeback against Louisville. 

The Seminoles will have their hands full against an explosive Wake Forest offense that puts up 39.7 points, 540 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  They have a balanced attack with 209 rushing yards and 331 passing yards per game.  They are very tough to tame, which is bad news for a FSU defense that allows 32.2 points and 464 yards per game.   

Florida State is 1-8 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three years.  Florida State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four road games.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday. 

20* Michigan/Penn State ABC No-Brainer on Michigan +9.5 

I’m back to fading Penn State again this week.  I must really love misery.  But in all seriousness, this line has gotten out of hand.  It’s up to +9.5 now after opening around +7.  I would consider my loss on Iowa +3.5 last week a bad beat, and the Nittany Lions are getting too much respect for that win. 

The Hawkeyes outgained the Nittany Lions by 62 yards.  But they missed a field goal and came up short on a 2-point conversion to lose by 5.  They also fumbled a handoff inside their own 20 to gift wrap Penn State a touchdown.  And Iowa also failed to score a touchdown from first and goal from the 3-yard line.  Iowa was the right side in that game. 

Penn State is 6-0, but they have been outgained in three of their six games.  Not only were they outgained by Iowa, but they were also outgained at home by both Buffalo and Pitt.  I really think this is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  You’re going to hear a lot about Penn State playing at night and in a white out this week.  And it seems like everyone is on the Nittany Lions because of it.  I just think this is a great time to go contrarian. 

Michigan can still achieve all of its goals if it wins out.  I think we’re getting extra value on the Wolverines after their 42-25 win over Illinois last week.  The Wolverines were up 28-0 before taking their foot off the gas.  It’s like they were just ready to get to the Penn State game at halftime and forgot to play the second half. 

Penn State’s offense just doesn’t have the firepower to put Michigan away by double-digits.  Pitt held them to 17 points and Iowa held them to 17 points this season.  And Michigan has as good or better defense than both of those teams.  The Wolverines only allow 17.5 points, 283 yards per game this season and 4.2 yards per play this season.  I expect this to be an ugly, low-scoring Big Ten game.  So getting 9.5 points is a tremendous value. 

Michigan beat Penn State 42-7 last year and held them to just 186 total yards.  They outgained the Nittany Lions by 217 yards in the win.  The Wolverines are now 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Penn State may ultimately win this game, but they have to beat us by double-digits to get the cover, and I just don’t think they can. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Penn State) - after scoring and allowing 17 points or less in their last game are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Jim Harbaugh is 9-1 ATS vs. good rush defenses that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry in all games he has coached.  The Nittany Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Roll with Michigan Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +21.5 

The Texas Longhorns are in a hangover spot here from their 27-34 loss to rival Oklahoma last week.  Their dreams of playing in the four-team playoff have been crushed now with losses to Oklahoma and LSU, and it’s tough to get back up off the mat after such a crushing defeat.  I look for them to go through the motions this week and fail to cover this massive 21.5-point spread against Kansas. 

I’ve been saying Texas is overrated since before the season, and it has proven to be true.  The Longhorns were fortunate to only lose 27-34 to Oklahoma.  They were outgained by 201 yards by the Sooners and outgained by 3.5 yards per play in that game.  Oklahoma averaged 7.7 yards per play while Texas only averaged 4.2 yards per play and was sacked nine times.  But Oklahoma had two turnovers deep in Texas territory which kept the game closer than the final score. 

Now Kansas and Texas have a common opponent in Oklahoma.  Kansas only lost 20-45 at home to Oklahoma and was only outgained by 191 yards in that game, covering the 32-point spread.  And now the Jayhawks have had two weeks to get ready for Texas after having their bye last week.  I think we get a big effort out of the Jayhawks because of it. 

Kansas has been a big thorn in Texas’ side in recent years.  The Jayhawks are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, pulling the 24-21 upset as 23.5-point dogs in 2016, only losing 27-42 as 32-point road favorites in 2017, and only losing 17-24 as 15.5-point home dogs last year.  The Jayhawks just seem to get up for Texas, while the Longhorns consistently overlook them. 

Texas is 0-6 ATS in home games with a total of 56.5 to 63 over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Kansas Saturday. 

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State -3 

Of all the Power 5 teams that are still undefeated, both Baylor and Minnesota are clearly the two most overrated.  They are overrated because both have feasted on easy schedules, and both are very fortunate to be 6-0.  The Bears should have lost to both Iowa State and Texas Tech, winning those two games by a combined 5 points.  And their other four wins have come against Stephen F. Austin, Rice, UTSA and Kansas State. 

Baylor has played the 96th-toughest schedule this season according to the Sagarin ratings.  Oklahoma State has played the 36th-toughest schedule.  That’s a 60-spot difference in strength of schedule.  He actually has Oklahoma State rated higher than Baylor despite being 4-2, and I agree with him.  I think we are getting the Cowboys at a massive discount as only 3-point home favorites over the Bears here. 

Oklahoma State’s two losses have both come on the road to Texas (30-36) and Texas Tech (35-45).  That was not a bad loss to Texas, and the loss at Texas Tech was very fluky considering the Cowboys lost the turnover battle 5-0.  And I loved how QB Spencer Sanders took all the blame in the loss, saying he was solely responsible for the five turnovers and has to be better.  Keep in mind Baylor needed overtime to beat Texas Tech at home. 

Now, the Cowboys are in a great spot here coming off their bye week and returning home.  They have only played two home games compared to four road games this year, while Baylor has played four home games compared to only two road games.  And the Cowboys will be highly motivated to stay in Big 12 title contention in this must-win situation for them. 

There’s on injury for Baylor that is flying under the radar and not getting priced into the line.  LB Clay Johnson suffered a season-ending knee injury against Texas Tech last week.  Johnson leads the team with 58 tackles, and second place on the team has 30 tackles.  He is the heart and soul of the defense.  Now the Bears have to try and stop a Oklahoma State rushing attack that averages 279 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry without Johnson.  Expect Chuba Hubbard (1,094 yards, 13 TD, 6.8/carry) to have a massive day on the ground against this Baylor defense Saturday. 

Over the last 10 years, when Oklahoma State has been unranked and favored at home against a ranked team, they have gone a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with all three wins coming by double-digits.  The Cowboys are favored for good reason despite being unranked, but they aren’t favored by as much as they should be.  Baylor is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 trips to Oklahoma State. 

The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games after a game where they committed five or more turnovers.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia -3 

I really like the spot for Virginia here.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Notre Dame and Miami in games they felt like they should have won.  I had Virginia in both of those games and felt like I deserved to win them both as well.  Now the Cavaliers are back home here and still believe they can win the Coastal, but they certainly need to beat Duke if they are going to accomplish that goal. 

The Cavaliers were getting +10.5 at Notre Dame and lost by 15.  They were winning outright at halftime, and they were only outgained by 5 yards in that game, but they lost by 15 because they committed five turnovers. Then last week they were getting +3 at Miami.  They outgained the Hurricanes by 61 yards and shut down the Miami offense.  But Virginia left a ton of points in the board.  The Cavaliers had six trips inside the Miami 25-yards line and managed just 9 points in a 9-17 loss.  They failed to score a single touchdown. 

Now, it’s a great time to buy low on the Cavaliers after those two losses where they probably deserved to win both and should be 6-0.  And it’s time to sell high on Duke, which is coming off a misleading 41-23 home win over Georgia Tech, which is the worst team in the ACC.  The Blue Devils won by 18 and covered the 17.5-point spread despite getting outgained by the Yellow Jackets. 

This will easily be Duke’s toughest test since their 42-3 loss to Alabama in the opener.  Their last five games since have come against NC A&T, Middle Tennessee, VA Tech, Pitt and Georgia Tech.  And it’s worth noting that Duke lost at home to Pitt 30-33, while Virginia won 30-14 at Pitt to give these teams a common opponent. 

Virginia owns Duke, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while winning all four games by 7 points or more.  And those were some pretty poor Virginia teams, while this 2019 version is the best team they have had in years.  Duke is a team that likes to run the ball, averaging 183 yards per game on the ground.  They’ll get plenty of resistance from a Virginia defense that gives up just 90 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  That makes this a great matchup for the Cavaliers.  Take Virginia Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech +18.5 

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets right now.  They are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS this season, failing to cover a spread yet.  It was easy to see this was going to be a rebuilding year for the Yellow Jackets this season as they made the transition from Paul Johnson’s triple-option to Geoff Collins’ pro-style offense. 

After a slow start, I have seen some real signs of progress by the Yellow Jackets, and I think it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them now.  Two of their last three losses have been very misleading.  They lost 2-24 at Temple but were only outgained by 18 yards.  And last week they lost 23-41 at Duke, but actually outgained the Blue Devils by 6 yards.  If they can finish equal in stats against those two teams, they certainly can hang with Miami this week. 

I think it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Miami off its misleading 17-9 home win over Virginia last week.  The Hurricanes deserved to lose that game as they were outgained by 62 yards by Virginia.  The Cavaliers had six trips inside the Miami 25-yard line, but only managed 9 points and didn’t score a single touchdown.  I think the Hurricanes are now in a big letdown spot off that primetime win on National TV. 

And there were some real concerns about Miami coming into that Virginia game.  They had lost 35-42 at home to a Virginia Tech team that looked like they quit the previous week.  And before that, they only beat Central Michigan 17-12 at home as 30.5-point favorites.  This still isn’t a very good Miami team, and certainly not the type of team that should be laying a huge number to Georgia Tech here. 

Georgia Tech hasn’t lost by more than 17 points to Miami in any of the last eight meetings in this series, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Yellow Jackets pertaining to this 18.5-point spread.  The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 

Plays on any team (Georgia Tech) - after five or more consecutive losses against the spread against an opponent that is off one or more consecutive ATS wins are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This system just shows how profitable it is to back a team on a long ATS losing streak against a team on a winning ATS streak.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* UNLV/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +16 

The Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  That’s because they covered a combined 20 spread over the previous two seasons.  But that was a veteran team, and the Bulldogs are a young, inexperienced team now that returned only nine starters this year.  This is clearly a rebuilding season, but they keep getting priced like they are one of the best teams in the Mountain West. 

The Bulldogs are 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS this season.  Their only two wins both came against worse teams than UNLV and both by 14 points or less.  They beat Sacramento State 34-20 as 24.5-point home favorites and New Mexico State 30-17 as 21-point road favorites.  This game will be decided by 14 points or less as well. 

UNLV has really impressed me in its last two games.  The Rebels hung tough with Boise State for four quarters.  They were only down 18 with two minutes left but missed an extra point.  Then Boise State returned the onside kick inside the 10 and punched it in for a TD late to win by 25 and cover the 24.5-point spread. 

Last week, UNLV’s 34-10 win at Vanderbilt as 16-point underdogs was no fluke.  The Rebels outgained the Commodores 388 to 306 and were only +1 in turnovers.  That victory certainly gives this team a lot of confidence heading into this showdown with Fresno State. 

UNLV is a good rushing team that averages 180 rushing yards per game.  The Rebels ran for 206 yards on Vanderbilt last week, and they should find plenty of success on the ground against a Fresno State defense that is allowing 156 rushing yards per game.  They gave up 175 rushing yards to USC, 146 to Minnesota and 340 to Air Force last week in their 24-43 loss to the Falcons. 

In their last trip to Fresno State, UNLV won outright 26-16 as 21.5-point underdogs in 2017.  Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UNLV) - off one or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28 to 34 PPG) are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Tony Sanchez is 16-7 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of UNLV.  The Rebels are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Bet UNLV Friday. 

15* Ohio State/Northwestern Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 49.5 

The Northwestern Wildcats grow the grass on their home field in Evanston as long as possible.  They do this to slow down the opposition, and it will come into play here against Ohio State.  The Buckeyes won’t be as fast as they usually are on this grass field.  It will give the Wildcats a chance to hang with them as their defense holds the Buckeyes to their lowest point total of the season Friday. 

The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They are scoring just 14.4 points per game, averaging 293 yards per game and their 3.9 yards per play ranks dead last in the entire country.  I would be surprised if they score more than 10 points in this game, which would mean that Ohio State would need more than 38 points to beat us, and I don’t think they will get there. 

Northwestern has always been a great defensive team under Pat Fitzgerald.  That has been the case against this year as the Wildcats are only giving up 19.8 points per game, 319 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 7.8 points per game and 67 yards per game less than their season averages.  In their last two games, they held Nebraska to 13 points and held Wisconsin’s offense to only 10 points.  The Badgers got two defensive touchdowns in their 24-15 victory over the Wildcats. 

Ohio State’s defense has been lights out this season, which is why I can’t see Northwestern scoring more than 10 points.  The Buckeyes only give up 8.8 points per game, 234 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  This is the best defense the Wildcats have faced this season, and they could easily get shut out.  Both teams love to run the football as the Buckeyes average 46 rush attempts per game while the Wildcats average 42, which should keep the clock moving. 

Ohio State is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 475 or more total yards in three straight games over the last two seasons.  Northwestern is 10-1 UNDER after playing a road game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Buckeyes last seven games on grass.  The UNDER is 42-14-1 in Wildcats last 57 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -6.5 

The Stanford Cardinal have turned their season around.  After opening 1-3 against a brutal schedule with losses at USC, at UCF and at home to Oregon, they have bounced back nicely in their last two games.  They won 31-28 at Oregon State followed by a 23-13 home win over Washington as 12.5-point underdogs.  Now they’ve had two weeks off to get ready for UCLA tonight. 

I realize Stanford is down to its third-string quarterback, but that is factored into the line.  And these injuries have brought the team closer together.  I think the Cardinal are way undervalued as a result of these QB injuries and some other injuries along the offensive line.  The quotes coming from the players and coaches right now make me want to get behind them. 

A sophomore from Alabama, QB Jack West took all the reps in practice Monday after playing the final 10 minutes against Washington after backup Davis Mills went out.  West took a lot of reps as the primary backup in spring ball than he normally would because of the situation with starter KJ Costello.  He has continued to get additional reps the past few weeks, too. 

“I had a great conversation with Jack at the end of training camp,” head coach David Shaw said. “I said I have no issues with him playing.  If he plays, I know we can run anything in the playbook.  It was a compliment to how hard he has worked.  If he goes out to play, we’ll be able to run the whole playbook.” 

Stanford also has some injuries on the offensive line as they finished the game playing three true freshmen.  The 11-day break could mean that some of those injuries heal, but in a strange way, the injuries have brought Stanford’s players closer together. 

“It hasn’t helped up but it has rallied us,” running back Cameron Scarlett said.  “Seeing a guy go down, you want to do all you can to make sure you make a play for him.  It’s definitely rallied us.  We knew adversity was going to strike at some point this season.  Didn’t think it would strike this hard, this fast, but we just have to respond and keep it moving.” 

Scarlett has been a big reason why the Cardinal have overcome some of the injury issues.  He rushed for 97 yards in the loss to Oregon, 92 yards in the win over Oregon State, and then piled up a career-best 157 yards on 33 carries against a good Washington defense. 

UCLA is quickly making a case to be the worst team in the Pac-12.  They came into the season overrated, and they have really disappointed by going 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS.  Their only win came when they trailed by 32 points at Washington State, so they easily could be 0-6.  Their 31-48 home loss to Oregon State last time out really showed that this team is pretty much quitting on head coach Chip Kelly. 

Stanford owns UCLA, going 11-0 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with 10 of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  The Cardinal are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Stanford Thursday.

Note: Stanford is down to -3 as of 2:00 EST Thursday afternoon.  It's still a 20* play at that number.

20* South Alabama/Troy ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 57.5 

In-state rivals Troy and South Alabama meet tonight in Sun Belt action.  I expect this to be a low-scoring affair and stay UNDER the posted total of 57.5.  Both teams come in on extra rest and preparation time, which favors the defenses.  South Alabama hasn’t played in 13 days, while Troy hasn’t played in 11 days. 

The UNDER is 3-1-1in five meetings over the last five seasons.  But all five meetings have seen 55 or fewer combined points, so the OVER would be 5-0 on this 57.5-point total.  They have averaged just 42.2 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than this posted total.  The last two meetings in Troy have seen 27 and 42 combined points. 

South Alabama is a bad offensive football team.  The Jaguars average just 16.8 points and 319 yards per game this season.  I just don’t see them scoring too many points here to contribute to the over.  They are 0-3 on the road and scoring 13.7 points per game and averaging 294 yards per game.  However, they do have an improved defense this year, giving up 29.3 points and 400 yards per game. 

Troy’s numbers are skewed to the over due to two games against good offensive teams in Southern Miss and Arkansas State.  They combined for 89 points with Southern Miss and 93 points with Arkansas State.  However, their other three games have all seen 57 or fewer combined points.  They combined for 57 with Campbell, 42 with Akron and 52 with Missouri.  And this South Alabama offense is one of the worst they’ve been up against this season, comparable to Akron and Campbell. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in South Alabama’s six games this season with combined scores of 56 or fewer in all six games.  South Alabama is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 games after scoring 7 points or less in two straight games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jaguars last five road games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Trojans last 11 games after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska +7.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are probably the most fraudulent 5-0 team in the country.  Four of their five wins have come by 7 points or less, and the lone exception was a 23-point home win over Illinois last week in which the Fighting Illini were decimated by injuries.  So, getting 7.5 points here with Nebraska is a tremendous value considering this is easily the toughest team they have faced yet. 

Minnesota’s five wins have come against South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Purdue and Illinois.  They could easily be 2-3 instead of 5-0, too.  They have played the 84th-toughest schedule in the country.  I think they get a reality check here Saturday against the Cornhuskers, who are in must-win mode if they want to win the Big Ten West. 

Nebraska is 4-2, but should be 5-1.  They blew a 17-0 lead at Colorado and lost 31-34.  Their other loss came to Ohio State, who may be the best team in the country.  It’s a Nebraska team that has put up good numbers averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and giving up only 5.1 yards per play on defense.  And they’ve played the much tougher schedule having already played Ohio State. 

I realize QB Adrian Martinez is questionable, but that is factored into the line.  And it’s not like Martinez has been a world beater.  Nebraska has a nice safety blanked in backup QB Noah Vedral, who spent time with Scott Frost at UCF and really knows the playbook.  Vedral led the game-winning drive against Northwestern last week after Martinez left with injury.  Not to mention another backup in Luke McCaffrey, Christian’s brother, is one of the top athletes on the team.  The Huskers will be just fine if Martinez cannot go. 

Minnesota had 239 more yards than Illinois last week, a banged up Illinois team.  Well, Nebraska had 391 more yards than Illinois when they played them on the road earlier this season, which shows they are probably the better of these two teams, yet they are catching more than a touchdown.  I simply believe Nebraska is undervalued right now after starting 1-5 ATS on the season, and they had a big second half of the season last year, which is something they can fall back on this year too. 

Nebraska is 30-10 ATS in its last 40 games after failing to cover four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Huskers are 6-0 ATS off three straight conference games over the last two seasons.  Nebraska is 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 road games.  The Golden Gophers are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +3.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes finally got the humbling they needed last week on the road at Michigan.  They lost that game 10-3 as their offense gave the game away.  They committed 4 turnovers, including 3 interceptions from senior QB Nathan Stanley.  Stanley is the kind of QB I trust to bounce back from such a bad performance.  He still has a 60-to-19 TD/INT ratio for his career. 

Now the Hawkeyes return home where they are 3-0 and winning by 33.0 PPG.  This will be a night game for the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium, which is one of the best atmospheres in the entire country.  They have knocked off Michigan and Ohio State in recent years outright as home underdogs.  In fact, Iowa has covered 70% of the time as a home underdog since 2000 in 22 attempts. 

And Iowa wants revenge from a pair of tough losses to Penn State over the last two years.  They lost 19-21 at home to Penn State as 12.5-point dogs in 2017.  And last year they lost 24-30 at Penn State as 5-point dogs in a game they dominated everywhere but the scoreboard.  And those were better Penn State teams than this 2019 version. 

Yes, the Nittany Lions are 5-0, but they are a fraudulent 5-0.  They have played four home games and just one road game at Maryland, which is essentially a home game for them as they had a ton of fans there.  They have played the 86th-toughest schedule in the country.  And that easy schedule is a big reason why I’m fading them this week. 

The Nittany Lions were outgained by 72 yards at home by Buffalo in a very misleading final.  They were also outgained at home by Pittsburgh in a lackluster 17-10 win.  Pittsburgh is a poor man’s Iowa.  This will be by far their toughest test of the season.  Iowa has already played two very difficult games on the road against Iowa State and Michigan, so they are battle-tested. 

Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country giving up just 8.8 points and 254 yards per game.  The Nittany Lions are 0-17 ATS in their last 17 games vs. teams who give up 12 or fewer points per game.  Penn State is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 road games after allowing 9 points or less last game.  Iowa is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.   

Plays against any team (Penn State) - after beating the spread by 40 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games when playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Iowa Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nevada -2 

I love the spot for the Nevada Wolf Pack in this game.  They are coming off a bye week following an embarrassing home loss to Hawaii.  Now everyone has written them off, and I have no doubt they were extra focused these last two weeks to correct their mistakes.  They are primed for their best effort of the season at home against San Jose State this weekend now. 

That’s saying a lot considering they already beat Purdue 34-31 at home, and that was back when Purdue was healthy and good.  Their two losses have come to Oregon and Hawaii, who are both two very quality teams.  Now they take a step back in class here against San Jose State, a team they should be able to handle. 

San Jose State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to beating Arkansas 31-24 on the road.  The other two wins came at home over Northern Colorado and New Mexico as favorites, which weren’t impressive.  They also lost at home by 18 against a mediocre Tulsa team, and were blown out on the road 24-41 at Air Force.  That was a 10-41 game against Air Force before they tacked on two garbage touchdowns late. 

The bye week was the perfect time to name Malik Henry their new starting quarterback.  Henry was the No. 3 ranked QB coming out of high school and has transferred to Nevada from Florida State.  It’s a surprise he didn’t win the job from the start, and he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder.  Having two weeks to get accustomed to the offense due to the bye week will be a huge advantage for him. 

Nevada is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with San Jose State.  It is winning these games by an average of 22.6 points per game.  Getting the Wolf Pack as only 2-point favorites here is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.  Nevada is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games after scoring 14 points or less last game.  The Wolf Pack are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Jose State) - off a home win over a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

15* Alabama/Texas A&M CBS No-Brainer on Texas A&M +17 

The Texas A&M Aggies are treating this game as their Super Bowl.  They already have two losses on the season, so for them to really call this a successful year, they need to upset Alabama.  Look for them to put forth their biggest effort of the season at home here Saturday with the 12th man behind them at Kyle Field. 

Yes, Texas A&M has two losses, but they were competitive in both.  They lost to Clemson 10-24 and to Auburn 20-28.  Both teams are ranked in the Top 12 in the country.  If they can play with both of those teams, they should be able to stay within 17 points of Alabama at home here Saturday. 

Obviously, the Aggies have played a tough schedule having already had to play Clemson and Auburn.  Alabama has played the much easier schedule as the toughest team they have faced is South Carolina, which is ranked 38th in the Sagarin ratings.  Their other four wins have come against Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Ole Miss. 

This Alabama defense has shown vulnerability due to injuries.  They gave up 23 points and 459 total yards to South Carolina and 31 points and 476 total yards to Ole Miss.  It’s safe to say they don’t have the same lockdown defense they have had in years’ past.  Kellen Mond and company should be able to score with Alabama and take advantage of their soft defense. 

Texas A&M has been able to play Alabama tougher than most teams in recent years.  Indeed, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 22 points or fewer.  Jimbo Fisher will have his players ready for the fight of their lives this weekend to try and turn their season around.  Plus, defensively the Aggies are elite, giving up just 17.8 points per game, 299.8 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  I would argue they have the better defense this year. 

Texas A&M is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three seasons.  Nick Saban is 9-18 ATS when the total is 56.5 to 63 as the coach of Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Aggies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Michigan State/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +11 

The Michigan State Spartans are way undervalued right now.  They are coming off a 10-34 loss at Ohio State, and everyone seems to have given up on this team now.  This is exactly the type of game I like backing the Spartans in as head coach Mark Dantonio always seems to get his team to respond.  It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Spartans this week. 

Michigan State should be 5-1 this season with its only loss on the road at Ohio State.  And Ohio State is making everyone look bad and may be the best team in the country.  I say they should be 5-1 because they have outgained five of six opponents this year by an average of 160.4 yards per game.  Their 7-10 loss to Arizona State was a fluke because they outgained the Sun Devils by 188 yards. 

Wisconsin is overvalued due to being 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season.  Now they are laying too many points this week against a Michigan State team that I believe is close to their equal.  It’s exactly the type of matchup that these teams love, and so do teams like Iowa and Northwestern in the Big Ten West.  Games that are expected to be physical, low scoring games are what these teams live for. 

Favorites of more than 7 points with a total of 43 or less are covering just 43% of the time over the last 17 seasons, a sample size of more than 400 games.  Favorites have a hard time covering when it’s expected to be a low-scoring game. 

Plus, these teams now have a common opponent in Northwestern.  Wisconsin beat Northwestern only 24-15 at home despite getting two defensive touchdowns.  Michigan State beat Northwestern 31-10 on the road.  Those results against a common opponent give me a lot of confidence that the Spartans can give the Badgers a run for their money, possibly pulling off the upset. 

That 24-point loss to Ohio State also sets Michigan State up for a great situation.  Michigan State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games off a double-digit loss with its only loss coming by a field goal.  We saw how well the Spartans bounced back off that fluke loss to Arizona State with their 21-point win at Northwestern.  And the Spartans will be looking to salvage their season with an upset victory here Saturday. 

Michigan State is 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with Wisconsin.  The Badgers have only beaten the Spartans by double-digits once in the last nine meetings.  Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  Dantonio is 9-1 ATS in road games with a total of 42 or less as the coach of Michigan State. 

Plays against any team (Wisconsin) - after beating the spread by 40 or more points total in their last five games, a top level team winning at least 80% of their games playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday. 

15* Oklahoma/Texas FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +11 

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued after a 5-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They haven’t played a team ranked higher than 43rd in the Sagarin ratings.  The best team they have played thus far is Texas Tech, and two of their other premier games were against Houston and UCLA.  The other two wins have come against South Dakota and Kansas. 

Conversely, Texas has played the 16-toughest schedule in the country.  Their 38-45 loss to LSU is looking better and better by the week.  They have also beaten Oklahoma State, West Virginia, LA Tech and Rice thus far.  I think the fact that the Longhorns are battle-tested is a huge advantage for them heading into this Red River Rivalry. 

Texas always seems to play Oklahoma tough.  Texas is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with only one loss coming by double-digits, and that was a 12-point defeat.  The Longhorns have covered those games by an average of 11.5 points per game.  And we all know that Tom Herman loves playing the role of underdog.  In fact, Herman is 13-3 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Texas. 

Jalen Hurts has been up against a schedule of very soft defenses, and he’ll finally get some resistance here against Texas.  His accuracy as a passer will finally get tested here.  And the Longhorns have been good at stopping the run, holding opponents to just 117 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  They will make Hurts try and beat them with his arm, and I’m doubting he’ll be able to do it. 

Texas is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored over the last three seasons.  Herman is 11-2 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached.  The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games, while the Sooners are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Bet Texas Saturday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +25 

For starters, I love the fact that South Carolina is coming off a bye week.  This has given them extra time to get healthy, and nobody needed it more than their two best offensive players in QB Ryan Hilinski and RB Rico Dowdle.  Both are now probably and expected to play in this game against rival Georgia. 

The Gamecocks bounced back nicely going into the bye with a 24-7 home win over Kentucky.  They dominated that game by outgaining the Wildcats by 175 yards in the win.  Hilinski has been impressive competing 61% for 912 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions.  Dowdle has rushed for 370 yards and four scores while averaging 6.6 per carry. 

Georgia is coming off a misleading 43-14 win at Tennessee last week.  This was a 15-point game with only eight minutes to go against a very bad Tennessee team that might be the worst in the SEC.  But Georgia tacked on two touchdowns in the final minutes to cover, including a 69-yard fumble recovery for a score.  It was such a bad beat for Tennessee backers that it ended up on SVP bad beats.  I think Georgia is overvalued because they covered that game. 

South Carolina always seems to play Georgia tough.  In fact, the Gamecock’s have only lost once by more than 24 points to the Bulldogs in the last 42 meetings.  That’s a 41-1 system backing South Carolina pertaining to this 25-point spread.  Enough said.  Take South Carolina Saturday. 

20* Virginia/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia +2.5 

Wrong team favored here.  The Virginia Cavaliers are a legit ACC title contender this season and have been the best team in the Coastal to this point.  They will prove they are the class of the Coastal with a road win at hapless Miami Friday night. 

The Cavaliers are 4-1 this season with wins over Florida State and Pittsburgh.  Their only loss came on the road at Notre Dame in a game they led at halftime, but five turnovers did them in in a misleading 20-35 loss.  The Cavaliers were only outgained by 5 yards by the Fighting Irish in the loss. 

Miami is already regretting hiring the inexperienced Manny Diaz.  The Hurricanes are off to a 2-3 start this season with their only wins coming at home over Bethune-Cookman and Central Michigan.  And even that win against Central Michigan was ugly as they won 17-12 as 30.5-point favorites while getting held to just 301 yards of total offense. 

The three losses have come against the best three teams they played.  They lost to Florida on a neutral, to UNC on the road and to Virginia Tech at home.  That 35-42 home loss to the Hokies last year was real poor when you consider VA Tech was coming off a 10-45 home loss to Duke.  It was a Hokies team that many feel quit on their head coach, but they jumped out to a 28-0 lead and never really looked back. 

There’s going to be a lot of people backing Miami in this game that say the Hurricanes dominated the box score in that game.  While that’s true, you have to factor in that VA Tech got up 28-0, and the Hurricanes were in the hurry up the rest of the way.  Of course they are going to put up big numbers against the Hokies’ prevent defense.  There’s a reason N’Kosi Perry was beat out by Jarren Williams at quarterback in the offseason.  And I don’t think Perry is going to have much success against this vaunted Virginia defense. 

This is a Virginia defense that is only allowing 21.4 points, 275 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 78 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages.  Virginia also had the better QB in Bryce Perkins, a dual-threat who have accounted for 10 total touchdowns this year while completing 67% of his passes. 

Miami is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Miami is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 October games.  The underdog is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Miami.  Bet Virginia Friday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Lafayette PK 

I absolutely love the situation for the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns tonight.  They lost both meetings with Appalachian State last year, losing 27-17 in the regular season and 19-30 in the Sun Belt Championship Game. They were only outgained by 44 yards in the first meeting and actually outgained the Mountaineers by one yard in the title game. 

It’s safe to say the Rajin’ Cajuns want some revenge tonight.  Both of those meetings were on the road at Appalachian State.  Now, the Rajin’ Cajuns get them at home this time around.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere at Cajun Field for this week night game that has huge Sun Belt title implications. 

Appalachian State isn’t as strong as last year, especially after losing head coach Scott Satterfield to Louisville.  They have played the 143rd-toughest schedule in the country, which is a big reason why they are off to a 4-0 start.  Three of their four wins have come at home, and their lone road win came at UNC 34-31 against a Tar Heels team that was in a clear flat spot. 

Lafayette is the real deal this season.  It is off to a 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS start as oddsmakers have failed to realize how good this team really is.  They have covered the spread by a combined 73 points during their 5-0 ATS start, or by an average of 14.6 points per game.  Their only loss came on the road at Mississippi State 28-38 as 18.5-point dogs.  They should be favored in this game Wednesday night. 

Lafayette is putting up elite numbers this year, too, to prove that this start is no fluke.  They are averaging 44.4 points, 540.2 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play on offense.  They are only giving up 21.4 points, 345.2 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 23.0 points per game, and they are outgaining them by 195.0 yards per game and 2.5 yards per play. 

Looking at the yardage totals for Appalachian State, it’s easy to see that their 4-0 start is very fraudulent, especially when you consider how easy their schedule has been.  The Mountaineers are gaining 429.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 420.0 yards per game on defense.  They are only outgaining opponents by 9.2 yards per game on the season. 

Lafayette is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in their last three games coming in.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Lafayette is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Wednesday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico State +5 

You would be hard-pressed to find a team that has played a tougher schedule than New Mexico State has to this point.  The Aggies have played the 15th-toughest schedule in the country according to Sagarin, and that’s a big reason why they are 0-5 this season.  They have been a 17-plus point underdog in four of their five games, and a dog in all five. 

They opened the season with road losses to Washington State and Alabama.  They have played two of the best teams in the Mountain West in San Diego State and Fresno State at home.  And their most winnable game was as 4-point dogs at New Mexico in a 52-55 loss in a huge rivalry game.  They have managed to go 3-2 ATS, so they have exceeded expectations in terms of the spread.  And they were competitive in every game as they were only outgained by 68 yards by SDSU, 109 yards by New Mexico and 71 yards by Fresno. 

Now, New Mexico State is looking at this home game against Liberty as their best chance to get a victory.  They don’t want to let this opportunity slip by, and they are hungry for their first win.  They have a three-game road trip coming up at Central Michigan, at Georgia Southern and at Ole Miss after this.  No question they have this game circled. 

Plus, Liberty and New Mexico State are becoming rivals quickly.  They played each other twice last year with the home team winning both meetings.  New Mexico State won 49-41 at home as 3-point dogs and racked up 573 total yards in the victory.  Liberty won 28-21 at home as 6-point favorites despite getting outgained 396 to 295.  New Mexico State outgained Liberty by a total of 158 yards in the two meetings. 

I think Liberty comes in overvalued off due to its three-game winning streak.  They opened the season with a 24-0 home loss to Syracuse and a 14-35 road loss at Louisiana-Lafayette.  But they have reeled off three straight home wins since against a soft schedule in Buffalo, Hampton and New Mexico.  They only beat New Mexico 17-10 as 7.5-point home favorites last week.   

So, Liberty has played four home games compared to just one road game.  They have played the 121st-toughest schedule in the country compared to the 15th-toughest for NMSU.  That difference in strength of schedule is the biggest reason I’m on New Mexico State this week.  Plus, it’s a must-win game for the Aggies with the brutal schedule they still have ahead with three straight road games next.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon -17.5 

The Oregon Ducks are undervalued due to losing to Auburn in their opener.  They had that game in hand but allowed a big comeback late and lost 21-27 as 4-point dogs.  Well, Auburn has gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season and is clearly one of the best teams in the country, so that loss doesn’t feel too bad now.  And the Ducks know they still have a chance to win the Pac-12 and make the four-team playoff.  They have been and will be motivated for style points the rest of the way. 

Oregon has gone on to dominate in their three games since that loss.  They beat Nevada 77-6 as 24-point home favorites, cruised past Montana 35-3, and topped Stanford 21-6 on the road as 10.5-point favorites.  They haven’t allow a single touchdown in any of their last three games as this may be the best defense in program history.  They are giving up just 10.5 points, 263 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play this season. 

Justin Herbert returned this season for one reason and one reason only, and that’s to win the Pac-12.  He has been a tremendous leader for this team and is having another monster season this year.  Herbert is completing 74.4% of his passes for 1,127 yards with a 14-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. 

California got off to a fraudulent 4-0 start and was and still is getting too much respect from oddsmakers because of it.  This vaunted Cal defense gave up over 500 total yards to Ole Miss two weeks ago and were fortunate to win 28-20.  They only beat North Texas 23-17 as 14-point home favorites, the same North Texas team that was just blasted by Houston last week despite the Cougars redshirting their top QB and WR before the game.  And last week they were upset 17-24 at home by Arizona State while getting outgained by 120 yards. 

Of course, it hurt that Cal QB Chase Garbers had to leave the game with a shoulder injury.  Backup QB Devon Modster was forced into action and was terrible, completing 5-of-14 passes for 23 yards with an interception.  Now Modster will have to start for them moving forward, and I just don’t see how Cal can score enough points to hang with Oregon.  It’s a Cal offense that is only scoring 23.0 points per game this season after averaging just 21.5 points per game last year, and that was with a solid Garbers at QB. 

Oregon beat Cal 42-24 on the road last year.  Oregon is now 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with eight of those nine wins coming by 16 points or more.  Oregon is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with Cal, winning by an average of 18 points per game.  The Ducks are 43-13 ATS in their last 56 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  Finally, the Ducks have had two full weeks to prepare for Cal, and they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games off a bye week.  Roll with Oregon Saturday. 

15* Northwestern/Nebraska FOX No-Brainer on Nebraska -7 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have every reason to be more motivated for this game than any game yet at this point in the season.  They were just embarrassed on National TV by Ohio State, which is looking more and more like the best team in the country.  And now they want revenge on Northwestern after blowing a big lead to the Wildcats last year. 

In fact, the Cornhuskers have now lost in overtime to Northwestern each of the last two seasons.  They led 31-21 at Northwestern with under three minutes to play.  Northwestern scored 10 points in the final 2:27, including a TD with 12 seconds left to force OT.  Then they won it on a field goal in the extra session.  It was a heartbreaking loss for the Huskers, and one that certainly have not forgotten. 

The Huskers should be 4-1 this season.  They blew a 17-0 lead at Colorado in Week 2 for their other loss outside Ohio State.  They are clearly improved.  Scott Frost is trying to build something big here, which is why I’m not worried about how they’ll come back off that loss to Ohio State.  Frost is a prideful guy who has rubbed off on his players and I have no doubt they’ll give a big effort this week. 

While the Huskers are improved, Northwestern clearly isn’t the same team that won the Big Ten West last year.  The Wildcats are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season with their only win coming 30-14 at home against a UNLV team that has looked atrocious this season.  They also lost to a bad Stanford team 7-17 on the road, were blown out at home by Michigan State 10-31, and lost last week to Wisconsin 15-24. 

I was on Northwestern last week as 24-point dogs at Wisconsin.  It was a clear flat spot for the Badgers off their huge win over Michigan the previous week.  And the Badgers were as flat as a pancake as expected.  It was also a good matchup for Northwestern.  Pat Fitzgerald’s teams always do better in games that are expected to be physical, low-scoring games.  They don’t do as well against teams like Nebraska that can spread you out and use their speed. 

This is a dynamic Huskers offense that is putting up 31.8 points, 438 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Adrian Martinez has remained healthy this season and is playing well, completing 59.5% of his passes for 1,099 yards with a 7-to-5 TD/INT ratio and 8.7 yards per attempt.  Martinez has also rushed for 315 yards and three scores already.  The Wildcats will struggle to contain his speed just as they did last year with the Huskers scored 31 points on them. 

Northwestern has a putrid offense that won’t be able to keep up with Nebraska.  The Wildcats are averaging just 15.5 points, 293 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play this season.  QB Hunter Johnson has been a huge disappointment after transferring from Clemson.  He also got hurt last week against Wisconsin, and though he’s probable this week, he won’t be 100%. 

Nebraska is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games vs. poor passing teams with a completion percentage of 48% or worse.  The Huskers are 7-0 ATS after playing two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  Nebraska is 13-3 ATS in its lsat 16 games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games coming in.  The Huskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  A lot of bettors have given up on the Huskers after their no-show against Ohio State last week, and this is the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on them.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -2 

I think this is a good opportunity to buy low on Kansas State and sell high on Baylor after their performances last week.  Kansas State lost by 13 to Oklahoma State and failed to cover the 4-point spread.  That was a hungry Cowboys team as they didn’t want to open 0-2 in Big 12 play after a tough loss at Texas.  And it’s always tough to win in Stillwater. 

Baylor beat Iowa State 23-21 at home outright as 2.5-point dogs last week.  A lot of people were on Iowa State in that game, so it’s a result that is giving Baylor a lot of respect.  But now this will be just Baylor’s 2nd road game of the season.  Their only other road game this year was a lackluster 21-13 win at Rice as 27-point favorites. 

Kansas State is coming off a tough two-game road trip at Mississippi State and Oklahoma State.  They were certainly happy to get a split there as they upset Mississippi State before losing to the Cowboys.  But in their two home games this season, Kansas State has outscored its two opponents 101-14.  Fans will be excited for the Big 12 home opener this week with Baylor coming to town. 

It’s a good matchup for Kansas State.  They have been soft against the run, but Baylor is a team that likes to put the ball in the air.  And Kansas State is only giving up 127 passing yards per game, 51.1% completions and 5.4 yards per attempt.  I really just think that Baylor is overvalued after starting 4-0 against such a soft schedule.  Kansas State is way more battle-tested having already faced Mississippi State and Oklahoma State. 

The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games off a loss.  The Wildcats are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game.  The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after covering the spread in their previous game.  Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Baylor.  The Wildcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after being out-rushed by 200 or more yards in their previous game.  Bet Kansas State Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois +14 

This is easily the best team that Lovie Smith has had at Illinois.  The Fighting Illini returned 17 starters this year.  They opened 2-0 with conformable wins over Akron and Connecticut.  But they have lost back-to-back heartbreakers to Eastern Michigan by 3 and Nebraska by 4.  They are coming off a bye week, which helps them refocus off those two tough losses.  And they should put forth a great effort here against Minnesota as a result this week. 

Minnesota is a fraudulent 4-0 this season, and that’s why it’s time to sell high on them.  All four wins have come by 7 points or less against an easy schedule of South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern and Purdue.  I expect this one goes down to the wire as well. 

Illinois has been terrible the last two seasons, but yet they’ve had Minnesota’s number.  They only lost by 7 as 14.5-point road dogs in 2017.  And last year they pulled the upset in blowout fashion as 9.5-point home dogs 55-31.  The Fighting Illini racked up 646 total yards against Minnesota last year, including 430 rushing. 

This will easily be the best rushing attack the Golden Gophers have faced this year.  Illinois averages 181 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry this season.  Minnesota just can’t run the football.  They average 116 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry despite the soft schedule.  They are a one-dimensional passing team, which is why I don’t trust them. 

The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games off an ATS win.  It’s time to sell high on fraudulent, unbeaten Minnesota this week.  And they could easily be looking ahead to their showdown with Nebraska next week.  The Fighting Illini will give them more of a fight than they bargained for this weekend.  Take Illinois Saturday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Central Michigan +6.5 

The Central Michigan Chippewas are improving rapidly under former Florida head coach Jim McElwain.  He was one of the better hires of the offseason, and probably the best hire in the MAC.  He is trying to turn the Chippewas into relevance again as this has been one of the better MAC programs throughout the years. 

The Chippewas are 2-3 on the season, and all three losses have come on the road against some very good teams in Wisconsin, Miami and Western Michigan.  After no-showing at Wisconsin, I was impressed with their last two road performances.  They only lost 12-17 at Miami as 30.5-point dogs and held the Hurricanes to just 301 total yards in the defeat.  And last week they lost 15-31 at Western Michigan as 16-point dogs in a very misleading final.  They actually outgained Western Michigan by 5 yards in the defeat. 

Since David Moore took over at quarterback after the loss to Wisconsin, this Chippewas offense has taken off.  Moore has thrown for 854 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions in three starts since taking over.  Plus, Central Michigan has dominated in its two home games this season, beating Albany 38-21 as 13.5-point favorites and topping Akron 45-24 as 2.5-point favorites. 

Eastern Michigan has played a very soft schedule, and all of their wins have been close.  Yes, they are 3-1, but they only beat Coastal Carolina by 7, Illinois by 3 and Central Connecticut State by 5.  They also lost by 21 at Kentucky.  That 5-point win over Central Connecticut State only came after they blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown in the final seconds.  They were 33-point favorites in that game, so it was an awful effort and one that shows they are extremely vulnerable.  They have no business being nearly touchdown road favorites here. 

Central Michigan is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Eastern Michigan.  The home team has won four straight meetings in this series.  Eastern Michigan is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 road games off a home win.  Chris Creighton is 2-9 ATS off two or more consecutive overs as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles are 12-27 ATS in their last 39 games following a win.  The Chippewas are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Central Michigan Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -3 

The Iowa State Cyclones feel like they should be 4-0.  They blew late leads against both Iowa at home and Baylor on the road in the closing minutes.  They lost those two games by a combined 3 points.  Now, this is a must-win game for them at home Saturday when they host the TCU Horned Frogs as they don’t want to fall to 0-2 in the Big 12.  All goals are still in front of this team with a big finish.  They started slow last year at 1-3, but rebounded for an 8-5 season.  They brought 16 starters back from that team as well. 

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see Iowa State has been much more dominant than is 2-2 record would indicate.  The Cyclones are averaging 500.0 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play on offense, and only giving up 352.7 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining their opponents by 147.3 yards per game and 2.5 yards per play on the year.  This is still one of the better teams in the country, but since they are just 2-2 they are getting overlooked now. 

TCU has played such a soft schedule and is just 3-1 this season despite playing three home games.  They lost at home to SMU 38-41.  That’s a good SMU team, but it’s still a bad loss.  Their three wins have come against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Purdue and Kansas.  And that win over Purdue comes with an asterisk.  The Boilermakers were banged up and it was their first game without QB Elijah Sindelar.  Plus, TCU was off a bye week, so it was a great spot for the Horned Frogs. 

Once again, TCU is a one-dimensional running team, which isn’t going to bode well for them here against Iowa State.  The Horned Frogs average 275 rushing yards per game, but they are completing just 52.3% of their passes for 213 passing yards per game despite the easy schedule.  Well, Iowa State has been stout against the run, giving up just 119 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.  They held a really good Iowa rushing attack to just 112 yards on 37 carries, an average of 3.0 yards per carry. 

The home team has won three straight and four of the last five meetings in this series.  TCU is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in October games over the last three years.  The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Cyclones.  Take Iowa State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +28.5 

The Penn State Nittany Lions come into this game way overvalued.  They are 4-0 and coming off a 59-0 beat down as only 6-point favorites at Maryland, covering the spread by 53 points.  Now the betting public is quick to jump on them after that performance, and quick to forget that they were in dog fights with Buffalo and Pittsburgh in their two previous games at home. 

Indeed, in Week 3 Penn State actually trailed Buffalo at halftime as 31.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 72 yards by the Bulls in a very misleading final.  Then in Week 3, Penn State only beat Pitt 17-10 as 17-point home favorites.  The Nittany Lions were also outgained by 7 yards by the Panthers.  That’s a Pitt team that lost by 16 at home to Virginia and barely beat Delaware 17-14 at home.   

The Nittany Lions clearly got a boost from their bye week in Week 4 and came back and played their best game of the season.  They won’t play a better game than they did against Maryland.  But now this is a sandwich spot off the National TV win over Maryland, and with the meat of their Big Ten schedule on deck.  Penn State could easily be overlooking Purdue and looking ahead to games against Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State the next three weeks.  They’d be more than happy to get out with a win against Purdue, but they won’t be concerned with covering this massive 28.5-point spread. 

Purdue comes in undervalued after opening the season 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS.  Two of their losses came by 7 points or less to Nevada and Minnesota.  They also beat Vanderbilt by 18 as 7-point home favorites in their lone cover.  And their lone blowout loss came 13-34 at home to TCU in their first game without QB Elijah Sindelar.  Plus, TCU was coming off a bye week.  It was just a bad spot for them. 

I was impressed with the way Purdue was able to hang against Minnesota last week without Sindelar.  They only lost 31-38 and racked up 414 total yards on a solid Minnesota defense.  Jack Plummer took over for an injured Sindelar early in that one and threw for 245 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  Now that he has some experience under his belt, he should only continue to get more comfortable in Jeff Brohm’s explosive offense.   

I know WR Rondale Moore is also out after getting injured last game, but he left that game early and only had two receptions for 18 yards.  So Plummer is used to playing without him.  Certainly these injuries to Sindelar and Moore hurt Purdue, but this line would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 if both were healthy.  Oddsmakers have over-adjusted for these injuries, and the betting public has bet this number up way too high now.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Boilermakers, and ’sell high’ on the Nittany Lions. 

Penn State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games after covering the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  Jeff Brohm is 10-2 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game in his career as a head coach.  Brohm is 20-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better in all games as a head coach. 

Plays against home favorites (Penn State) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points in their last three games, who are undefeated on the season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Boilermakers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Bet Purdue Saturday. 

15* Iowa/Michigan FOX No-Brainer on Michigan -3.5 

The Michigan Wolverines were 12-point favorites over Iowa when this line came out in the offseason.  It has moved nearly 10 points in Iowa’s favor.  In my opinion, it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wolverines now that everyone has basically given up on them following their loss at Wisconsin two weeks ago.  That loss to Wisconsin doesn’t look so bad now with the Badgers blasting everyone they have played to this point. 

I know it was Rutgers, but I was impressed with how Michigan came back last week and handled their business following that loss to Wisconsin.  They could have easily suffered a hangover after that loss to the Badgers.  They didn’t.  They beat Rutgers 52-0 and covered as 27-point favorites with ease.  Keep in mind Iowa only beat Rutgers 30-0 as 17.5-point home favorites. 

And that’s my issue with Iowa is the ease of their schedule to this point.  They have played the 110th-toughest schedule in the country.  They made easy work of Miami Ohio, Rutgers and Middle Tennessee State at home.  In their lone real test, they won 18-17 at Iowa State and were fortunate to win that game.  Iowa State outgained Iowa by 105 yards and deserved to win.  Michigan is better than Iowa State. 

The home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series.  Iowa is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog of 7 points or fewer.  The Hawkeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Kirk Ferentz is 13-23 ATS in road games off a win by 21 points or more as the coach of Iowa. Roll with Michigan Saturday. 

20* UCF/Cincinnati AAC ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +4.5 

The Cincinnati Bearcats are ready to win the AAC this season.  The conference goes through UCF, which has won it each of the last two years.  But their run comes to an end this year, and it starts with losing at Cincinnati here Friday night in front of what will be a raucous home crowd at Nippert Stadium. 

The loss at Ohio State for Cincinnati doesn’t look too bad now.  Ohio State is blasting everyone.  And the Bearcats have handled their business in impressive fashion in their other three games, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They beat UCLA 24-14 at home as 2.5-point favorites, covered as 17.5-point home favorites in a 35-13 win over Miami Ohio, and blasted a good Marshall team 52-14 as 4-point road favorites. 

It’s very impressive how well the Bearcats have responded following that loss to Ohio State with back-to-back blowout wins over Miami Ohio and Marshall.  Their defense is borderline elite, allowing just 20.7 points per game, 297 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  Their defense is holding opposing offenses to 11.3 points per game, 89 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.  This will easily be the best defense UCF has faced to date. 

UCF has become a huge public team because they’ve been so good against the spread over the past three seasons.  And they opened up this season covering their first three games in wins over Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic and Stanford.  But they have failed to cover the last two weeks as their lines have been inflated.  They lost outright to Pittsburgh 34-35 on the road as 10-point favorites.  And they failed to cover as 42.5-point favorites in a 35-point win over lowly UConn. 

Without question, Cincinnati has played the much more difficult schedule this year.  The Bearcats have played the 33rd-toughest schedule in the country.  The Knights have played the 96th-toughest schedule based on the Sagarin ratings.  Their one loss came to Pittsburgh, which was blasted at home by Virginia by 16 and also barely beat Delaware at home 17-14 last week. 

It’s also worth noting that UCF had that dream crusher loss to Pittsburgh.  This is a team that lost just one game over the previous two seasons combined and were at least in the playoff discussion.  But now with that loss at Pitt they have no shot to make the playoff.  I question how motivated they are going to be the rest of the way because of it.  The Bearcats are 8-0 SU in their eight home games over the past two seasons, winning by an average of 26.5 points per game.  Bet Cincinnati Friday. 

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +24.5 

The Utah State Aggies are coming off a historic season in which they went 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS.  But they only brought back nine starters from that team, including two on offense.  The betting public has continued to back this team and they’ve been rewarded as the Aggies have opened 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS. 

Clearly, I believe Utah State is overvalued now.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Aggies, who barely covered in a 3-point loss to Wake Forest as 4.5-point underdogs.  They also barely covered in a 6-point win over San Diego State as 4-point favorites.  Now they are being asked to lay a whopping 24.5 points to a Colorado State team that is undervalued after opening 1-3. 

The Rams have shown me enough against a tough schedule to believe they can stay within 24.5 points here.  Their three losses have come to Colorado, Arkansas and Toledo all by 21 points or less.  I’ve really been impressed with their offense, which is averaging 34.5 points, 552.2 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  This offense can travel anywhere.  Colorado State is now outgaining opponents by 113 yards per game on the season, so they are clearly better than their record would indicate. 

Last week, Colorado State only lost 35-41 at home to Toledo as 7-point dogs.  They racked up 694 total yards and and found their QB of the future in Patrick O’Brien, who started in place of the injured Colin Hill.  O’Brien threw for 405 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 27 yards and a score. 

Colorado State just has Utah State’s number.  The Rams are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  They won 27-14 on the road as 9.5-point favorites in 2017, and 31-24 at home as 6-point underdogs in 2016. But last year’s performance was the most impressive despite losing 24-29 on the road.  The Rams were whopping 30.5-point underdogs in that game and actually outgained the Aggies by 196 total yards and should have won that game outright. 

Plays on road underdogs (Colorado State) - in a game involving two dominant teams who are outgaining opponents by 100-plus yards per game, after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game are 51-18 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Colorado State Saturday. 

20* Ohio State/Nebraska ABC No-Brainer on Nebraska +18 

This line was Ohio State -10 when it came out in the offseason at the Golden Nugget.  Oddsmakers have adjusted 7.5 points.  I think the value is on Nebraska in this game. 

Ohio State is overvalued off its 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season against one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They are coming off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last week. 

Meanwhile, Nebraska is 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS and undervalued now because of it.  The Huskers should be 4-0 but they blew a 17-0 halftime lead at Colorado.  And last week’s 42-38 win at Illinois was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  Plus it was a lookahead spot to this Ohio State game, and the Huskers didn’t show up with their full focus. 

Nebraska had a 32-14 edge in first downs over Illinois  They had a 671-299 yard edge, outgaining the Fighting Illini by 372 total yards.  But they were -3 in turnovers, which is the only reason it was close.  Adrian Martinez was awesome, throwing for 327 yards and 3 scores, while also rushing for 118 yards.  He is the reason they have a chance here against Ohio State. 

Remember last year, Nebraska only lost by 5 at Ohio State as 17-point dogs.  Now they are catching more than 17 at home this time around.  It will be a raucous atmosphere in Lincoln Saturday night as fans and players alike have had this game circled all offseason. 

Ohio State has been able to run all over the bad defenses they’ve faced, averaging 262 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  Well, they won’t be able to run all over Nebraska.  The Huskers have held opponents to just 117 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.  Their defense is vastly improved, and they have one of the most explosive offenses in the country at 38.0 points per game, 490 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. 

Nebraska is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games coming in.  The Huskers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  Ohio State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games.  Nebraska is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. good defensive teams that give up 14 or fewer points per game. 

Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (Nebraska) - after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Nebraska Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas State +5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  Chris Klieman was one of the best hires of the offseason coming over from North Dakota State where he won four FCS titles in five years.  The guy knows how to coach, and the cupboard wasn’t bare at Kansas State with 14 returning starters. 

I backed Kansas State in Week 3 as they went on the road and upset Mississippi State 31-24 as 7.5-point underdogs.  Now they’ve had a bye week since, which means they get two full weeks to prepare for Oklahoma State.  It’s a Cowboys team they have had a lot of success against, going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. 

Oklahoma State is in a clear flat spot here.  They are coming off a deflating 30-36 loss at Texas last week.  They scored a late touchdown to get in the back door and cover, but for the most part Texas controlled that game the entire way.  QB Spencer Sanders was only 19-of-32 passing with zero touchdowns and two interceptions against a bad Texas defense. 

Kansas State has one of the best defenses in the country.  The Wildcats are holding opponents to just 12.7 points per game, 256 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 8.7 points, 92 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play less than their season averages.  It’s a defense that returned eight starters from last year and will be one of the best in the Big 12 this season. 

Kansas State’s offense has averaged 44 points per game and rushed for 280 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry thus far.  I have no doubt Klieman knows his best chance to win is to control the time of possession, and they’ll do that with their running game.  The Cowboys have not been great against the run as they are giving up 176 rushing yards per game this season.  It’s a great matchup for the Wildcats. 

Klieman will take a page from Bill Snyder for sure in this one.  The Wildcats have been able to run wild on the Cowboys in recent years during their 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS stretch.  Starting with last season, the Wildcats have rushed for 291, 217, and 345 yards in their last there meetings with the Cowboys.  Based on what we’ve seen thus far, the Wildcats will have their way on the ground against the Cowboys once again. 

Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wildcats are 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Kansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Oklahoma State.  Take Kansas State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Virginia +12.5 

I love the spot for Virginia here.  They come in undervalued after nearly losing to Old Dominion in a 28-17 win as 27-point favorites where they needed a second-half comeback.  It was a clear flat spot and a lookahead spot off their win over Florida State and with Notre Dame on deck.  Now, with a bye on deck next week, Virginia will be ‘all in’ this week. 

Notre Dame went 12-0 in the regular season last year and made the four-team playoff.  After losing to Georgia 17-23 last week, Notre Dame now has almost no shot at making the playoff again.  I think they’ll still be deflated from that defeat, and they won’t bring 100% focus into this game against Virginia.  I also think the Fighting Irish are getting too much respect now after playing Georgia closer than oddsmakers thought.  Everyone was on Georgia in that game it seemed like as they failed to cover as 14.5-point favorites. 

Virginia has a legit defense that is holding opponents to 18.0 points, 264 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 76 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages.  And the Cavaliers are led at QB by Bryce Perkins, who is completing 65.3% of his passes while also rushing for 193 yards and two scores.  He is one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC. 

Virginia’s 30-14 win at Pitt in the opener looks even better now.  Pitt nearly upset Penn State on the road as a 17-point dogs, and they came back last week and upset UCF as a double-digit dog last week.  That was the Cavaliers’ only road game this season, and it was their best performance of the year.  Bronco Mendenhall will have them ready for a physical came against Notre Dame on the road here, which is just the way they like it. 

I actually think Virginia is the more physical team up front on both sides of the ball.  Notre Dame is giving up 204 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season.  Virginia is only allowing 75 rushing yards per game and 2.2 per carry.  The team that stops the run best usually wins, and there’s no question Virginia is better equipped to stop the run in this game based on what we’ve seen thus far. 

Notre Dame is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game.  Mendenhall is 11-1 ATS off a non-conference game as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Independent schools.  The Fighting Irish are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet Virginia Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +7 

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are getting way too much respect here from oddsmakers.  They are off to a 4-0 start this season and overvalued as a result.  They won three home games against Utah State, UNC and Elon, as well as a road win at Rice in their only game away from home thus far.  They haven’t done anything impressive as they barely beat both UNC and Utah State and home.  Utah State lost almost everyone from last year, and UNC was on a short week and coming off a huge win against Miami, putting them in a letdown spot. 

Conversely, Boston College is undervalued because everyone remembers their shocking 24-48 home loss to Kansas.  They clearly went through the motions in that game and didn’t even show up.  Their other three games have been impressive, and more of a sign of the team they are than that Kansas game.  They beat VA Tech 35-28 as 4-point home dogs in the opener, crushed Richmond 45-13 at home, and went on the road and beat Rutgers 30-16 as 7.5-point favorites.  I like the way they responded from that Kansas loss with the win at Rutgers. 

Now Boston College has been humbled and refocused after that Kansas loss.  They still have everything in front of them as they are 1-0 in ACC play and can get to 2-0 here.  I really like what I’ve seen from this Boston College offense as they have averaged 33.5 points, 457 yards per game and 251 rushing yards per game.  The problem with their defense is that they have lost the time of possession, averaging just over 26 minutes per game on offense while their defense has been on the field for 34 minutes per game.  That should change moving forward with how well they’ve been able to run the football. 

This will be the best offense that Wake Forest has faced this season.  The Demon Deacons have good defensive numbers, but that’s more due to the ease of the schedule of opposing offenses.  They did give up 35 points and 596 yards to Utah State, and they will be hard-pressed to slow down AJ Dillon and Antony Brown in this one.  Brown has a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio and is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, while also rushing for two scores this year.  Dillon has rushed for 468 yards and accounted for seven total touchdowns. 

Plays on any team (Boston College) - an excellent rushing team that average 4.8 or more yards per carry against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPC), after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Steve Addazio is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game as the coach of Boston College.  The Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS int heir last 16 conference games.  Roll with Boston College Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State -2.5 

The Iowa State Cyclones lost a game 18-17 to the Iowa Hawkeyes that they should have won.  They outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 yards in that game, but were -2 in turnovers and led the whole way until the 4th quarter.  But because they lost that game, the Cyclones are undervalued heading into conference play. 

It just goes to show how good of a coach Matt Campbell is with the way his team responded last week.  They could have easily been flat off that loss to their in-state rivals, but they came out and dominated with one of their best performances in program history.  Indeed, the Cyclones beat Louisiana-Monroe 72-20, which was their most points scored in a game since 1906 when the forward pass was introduced.  They racked up 714 total yards, including six total touchdowns from QB Brock Purdy. 

The numbers really show just how dominant the Cyclones have been despite being just 2-1 and having a couple close games against both Iowa and Northern Iowa.  Iowa State is averaging 39.3 points, 532 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  They are averaging 12.2 points, 110 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.  Defensively, they are giving up 21.3 points, 333 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 7.5 points, 49 yards and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages. 

Baylor comes into Big 12 play overrated due to playing such a soft schedule.  The Bears are 3-0, but just 1-2 ATS this season.  Their three games have come against Stephen F. Austin, UTSA and Rice.  Their performance against Rice last week shows they are vulnerable.  They only beat the Owls 21-13 as 27-point favorites.  That’s a bad Rice team that is 0-4 and has basically been blown out every game. 

Campbell is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team that has greater than a 75% winning percentage as the coach of Iowa State.  Campbell is 6-0 ATS vs. teams that outscore opponents by 17-plus points per game as the coach of the Cyclones.  The Cyclones are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Take Iowa State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +25 

Northwestern definitely came into the season overvalued after winning the Big Ten West in one of the best seasons in program history.  And now they’re off to a 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS start this season, failing to meet expectations.  I believe this is the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on Northwestern now that everyone has counted them out. 

It’s the perfect storm too because it’s the perfect time to ’sell high’ on Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season with wins over South Florida, Central Michigan and then Michigan last week.  Clearly, Michigan was overrated as they needed overtime to beat Army in their previous game.  The Badgers will have a hard time getting up for Northwestern after their win over Michigan last week. 

This is the role Northwestern has played their best under Pat Fitzgerald.  Indeed, Northwestern has actually gone 10-8 STRAIGHT UP as a double-digit underdog over the last 10 years.  Not only are they covering, they are winning outright in these spots more time than not. 

Northwestern has been an underdog to Wisconsin each of the last five years.  They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in those five games with both of their losses coming by 14 points or less.  Northwestern loves a good Big Ten street fight where it’s a battle of the trenches.  They are one of the few teams that can hold up against a team like Wisconsin with one of the best front seven’s defensively in the Big Ten. 

The 10-31 home loss to Michigan State last week was closer than the final score showed.  The Wildcats were only outgained by 74 yards, but they committed three turnovers, which proved to be the difference.  I would argue Michigan State may have the best defense in the country, and Northwestern was able to run for 140 yards on them. 

Fitzgerald is 8-0 ATS after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards per play in its previous game as the coach of Northwestern.  Paul Chryst is 5-15 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Northwestern is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Wildcats are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off a double-digit home loss.  The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday. 

20* Duke/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -2.5 

The Virginia Tech Hokies had big expectations coming into the season due to returning 16 starters, including 10 on defense.  But after getting upset by Boston College on the road in their opener, and failing to cover in wins over Old Dominion and Furman, I believe this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Hokies. 

The Hokies have actually outgained all three of their opponents this season.  The only reason they lost to Boston College was because they turned the ball over five times.  In fact, they already have 9 turnovers this season through three games.  That’s not going to continue. 

Now Justin Fuente has had two full weeks to correct the mistakes with his team.  I expect the Hokies to come through with their best performance of the season Friday night.  They still have everything in front of them as they control their own destiny in the ACC and can still win the Coastal Division.  If they are going to, this is a must-win against Duke. 

I’m surprised at all the Duke love in this game.  They lost by 39 to Alabama in the opener, and have played a few cupcakes since in NC A&T and Middle Tennessee.  This is a Duke team that only returned 12 starters, including 4 on offense and lost their QB Daniel Jones as the 6th pick in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. 

Virginia Tech owns Duke, going 13-2 SU in the last 15 meetings.  They won by 17 on the road last year as 6.5-point dogs, and by 21 at home in 2017 as 17-point favorites.  And it’s clear the Hokies are improved defensively this season with all they brought back.   

They are holding opponents to 23.0 points, 329 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 50 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.  This inexperienced Duke offense will have a problem trying to move the football on this Bud Foster defense, which is back to the standards we expect from him and the Hokies after a down year last season.  Duke is averaging 27 yards per game less than their opponents give up on average. 

The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Virginia Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five Friday games.  The Hokies still have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, especially during these weeknight games.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday. 

15* Navy/Memphis ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -10.5 

I always like fading triple-option teams like Navy when their opponent has extra time to prepare.  And that’s the case this week as Memphis has nearly two full weeks to get ready for this game after last playing on September 14th.  Plus, they’ve played Navy each of the last two years, so they know what to expect. 

Memphis is legitimately one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  And they’re off to a flying start this season, going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS.  They beat Ole Miss 15-10 at home and outgained them by 191 yards in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They beat Southern 55-24 and outgained them by 317 yards.  And last time out they won 42-6 as 20.5-point favorites at South Alabama and outgained them by 282 yards.   

The Tigers have been one of the most dominant teams in all of college football thus far.  They always have an explosive offense every year, but the difference with this team is the improvement on defense.  They returned eight starters on defense this season.  They are holding opponents to 13.3 points per game, 226 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 8.7 points, 104 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.  Stopping the run will be key in this game, and Memphis is giving up just 116 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry thus far. 

Navy isn’t the juggernaut it used to be.  The Midshipmen are coming off a 3-10 season and a second consecutive loss to Army.  They only returned four starters this season and are inexperienced.  Sure, they are 2-0, but those two wins have come against Holy Cross and East Carolina.  Holy Cross is one of the worst teams in FCS, and ECU is one of the worst teams in FBS.  This is a huge step up in class for them. 

I realize one of Navy’s three wins last year came against Memphis, but I think that works in our favor here.  Navy won 22-21 and held the ball for nearly 43 minutes.  Memphis moved the ball on them with ease, averaging 7.7 yards per play, but they committed four turnovers to give the game away.  That places the Tigers in revenge mode, and with two weeks to prepare, they will be ready for this challenge.  It will be a raucous atmosphere in Memphis for a Thursday night home game as well with the Tigers having one of the best home-field advantages in the country. 

Memphis is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  Current head coach Mike Norvell is 9-2 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of Memphis.  Ken Niumatalolo is 5-14 ATS in road games off a bye week as the coach of Navy.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  Memphis is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games off a bye week.  The Tigers are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  

Finally, Memphis is 7-0 ATS under Mike Norvell off a bye week.  They have covered their last five in this spot while covering the spread by a total of 56 points.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Take Memphis Thursday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte +42 

The Clemson Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country and the defending national champs.  With that distinction comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  Clemson is fortunate not to be 0-3 ATS this season, but because they are 2-1 ATS they are being overvalued this week. 

Clemson beat Georgia Tech by 38 as 36.5-point favorites in the opener.  Georgia Tech failed going into the end zone at the 1-yard line which proved to be the difference in covering or not.  Clemson then failed to cover as 16.5-point favorites in a 14-point win over Texas A&M.  And last week Clemson never led by more than 28 as 28-point favorites against Syracuse, but got a breakaway 57-yard run with 48 seconds left to win by 35 when they were just trying to run out the clock. 

Now this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  It’s a ACC sandwich spot.  They were sky high last week in their ACC opener at Syracuse, and now they have an ACC game at North Carolina on deck next week.  They won’t have their full focus here against Charlotte in this non-conference game, which is going to make it extremely difficult for them to cover this massive 42-point spread. 

Not to mention, Charlotte looks pretty good.  They beat Gardner Webb 49-28 at home in their opener.  And they went on the road and only lost 41-56 at Appalachian State as 23.5-point dogs in Week 2.  That’s an Appalachian State team that has been one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in recent years.  And last week they throttled UMass 52-17 as 20.5-point favorites. 

As you can see, Charlotte has an explosive offense that is capable of scoring more points than anyone has yet on this Clemson defense.  The 49ers are averaging 47.3 points and 522.3 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  They have shown tremendous balance with 297 rushing yards per game and 7.1 per carry, and 226 passing yards per game and 9.0 yards per attempt.  I believe the 49ers are one of the single-most underrated teams in all of college football based on what I’ve seen so far. 

Dabo Swinney is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games as the coach of Clemson.  His teams are only winning by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Clemson is 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference games. 

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Clemson) - outgaining opponents by 1.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road teams (Charlotte) - an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards per play against a team with an excellent defense allowing 4.2 or fewer yards per play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Charlotte Saturday. 

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa -3 

There’s a reason a 1-2 Tulsa team is favored over a 3-0 Wyoming team Saturday.  And if not for the records, Tulsa would be a much bigger home favorite.  But I think we are getting a ton of value here because of the records on Tulsa, and that’s why I’ve made this my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR.  This game has blowout written all over it. 

Tulsa’s two losses are against Michigan State and Oklahoma State.  And they went on the road and beat San Jose State by 18 as 6-point favorites in their lone win.  They have faced a brutal schedule thus far, and I came away impressed by the losses to Michigan State and Oklahoma State as well. 

Tulsa actually led Oklahoma State 21-20 in the second half before eventually losing 21-40 last week.  They deserved to cover the 13.5-point spread, but Oklahoma State busted a long run in the final minutes when they basically could have kneeled on it.  It was much closer than that 19-point margin would indicate.  They also lost 7-28 at Michigan State to cover the 23.5-point spread, and they held the Spartans to just 303 total yards in the loss. 

Tulsa’s offense is better than it has shown due to the tough schedule, but the defense has really impressed me the most.  The Golden Hurricane are only allowing 28.0 points and 386 yards per game this season.  They are one of the most improved defensive teams in the country the last few years.  They are holding opponents to 61 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages this season. 

Wyoming is overvalued due to being 3-0.  Their win over Missouri in the opener at home was a fluke.  They were outgained by 148 yards and had over a 20-point swing in turnovers go in their favor.  They beat Texas State 23-14 on the road the next week, but were outgained by 151 yards in another fluky win.  And we’ve seen how bad Texas State has been against everyone else this year.  Then last week they only beat Idaho 21-16 at home as 27.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 16 yards by Idaho! 

Wyoming could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0 when you consider they were outgained in all three games.  They are getting outgained by 105 yards per game on the season now.  Their offense is averaging 66 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play less than their opponents average allowing.  Their defense is giving up 95 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally average. 

Tulsa hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2016 and that’s a huge goal of theirs this year.  They realize this home game against Wyoming is a must-win for them if they want to go bowling.  I have no doubt they will be ‘all in’ Saturday to try and get a win.  Meanwhile, Wyoming is feeling fat and happy after that Missouri win in the opener, and they were fortunate not to get upset by both Texas State and Idaho in the two games since.  Tulsa is a much different animal than those two teams. 

The Golden Hurricane are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  Tulsa is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off an ATS loss.  Wyoming is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 September games.  The home team has won four of the five meetings between these teams in this all-time series.  Bet Tulsa Saturday. 

20* Auburn/Texas A&M CBS No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3.5 

I like the fact that Texas A&M is battle-tested already having lost 10-24 at Clemson as 16.5-point underdogs to cover the spread.  The Aggies were only outgained by 100 yards by the Tigers in that tough atmosphere.  They handled their business with blowout wins over Texas State and Lamar and covered the spread in both games.  Now sitting at 2-1 this season, this game is very important to them in their SEC opener. 

Adding to the motivation for the Aggies is the fact that they want revenge from a 24-28 road loss at Auburn last year.  Texas A&M led that game 24-7 in the 4th quarter, but gave up 21 unanswered points to lose a heartbreaker.  The Aggies feel like they gave that game away as they were clearly the better team and outgained Auburn by 145 yards in the loss. 

Now the Aggies are back home at Kyle Field with home of the best home-field advantages in the country.  Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix hasn’t seen an atmosphere as hostile as this one.  Nix is only completing 52.4% of his passes on 84 attempts this season, so accuracy is an issue.  I expect him to have his worst performance of the season thus far Saturday. 

No question the Aggies have the clear advantage at quarterback with Kellen Mond in this one.  Mond is completing 65% of his passes and has accounted for seven total touchdowns already.  Mond has certainly played a lot better at home than he has on the road in his career.  And his mobility will be a huge asset against an Auburn defensive line that is clearly their strength. 

The 12th man at Kyle Field has been a problem for opponents recently.  The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Texas A&M is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  The Aggies are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 September games.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -2 

The California Golden Bears just got ranked after a surprising 3-0 start to the season.  They are feeling good about themselves now and getting pats on the back.  But I think this is the toughest test they’ve faced yet this season, and I expect them to fall flat on their faces. 

Cal now has to go out East for a 12:00 EST start time to face Ole Miss.  That means this will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for them coming from the West Coast.  They aren’t used to playing games this early, while Ole Miss is. 

This is an Ole Miss team that I expect to get better in a hurry as the season goes on.  They brought in two new coordinators in Rich Rodriquez and Mike MacIntyre.  Both are former head coaches in the Pac-12 who are familiar with California’s schemes.  That will be a huge advantage for the Rebels as they prepare for the Golden Bears. 

I think the Ole Miss players should now be accustomed to the new schemes that Rich Rod and MacIntyre have installed.  I’ve particularly been impressed with the improvement of the Ole Miss defense thus far under MacIntyre.  They are only giving up 20.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play on the season.  They are holding opponents to 12 points and 63 yards per game less than their season averages.  It’s only a matter of time before this talented offense takes off under Rich Rod. 

Cal has had a problem scoring the last two years offensively.  The Golden Bears average just 23.3 points per game, 351 yards per game & 5.1 yards per play this season.  They don’t look improved at all on that side of the ball.  Cal will suffer its first loss of the season on the road against an up-and-coming SEC opponent in an early start time here Saturday. 

Cal is 21-45 ATS in its last 66 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  They only beat North Texas by 6 as 14-point home favorites last week.  They were outgained by both Washington and North Texas despite winning those games.  Their luck runs out this weekend.  Take Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +39.5 

This is one of my favorite spots to fade Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are in a SEC sandwich game here.  They just won their SEC opener last week at South Carolina, and now they step out of conference for a game against Southern Miss before dipping back into SEC action next week against Ole Miss.  They won’t be fully invested in this game, which will make it tough to cover this massive 39.5-point spread. 

Alabama is fortunate not to be 0-3 ATS this season.  They only led Duke 14-3 at halftime as 33.5-point favorites but outscored them 28-0 in the second half to cover.  Then they failed to cover as 55.5-point favorites against New Mexico State and as 26-point favorites against South Carolina in their two games since.  This is another inflated number simply because it’s Alabama. 

There’s been several concerns about Alabama despite the easy schedule thus far.  Their rushing attack only produced 145 yards on 42 carries against Duke for 3.5 yards per carry.  They only had 76 rushing yards on 25 attempts against South Carolina for 3.0 yards per carry.  Defensively, the Crimson Tide have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all three games this season.  They clearly aren’t as strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball as they have been in years’ past. 

I’d argue that Southern Miss could be the best team they’ve faced yet.  This is a Southern Miss team that returned 16 starters and is among the favorites to win Conference USA this season.  They’ve managed to go 2-1 to start despite playing a tough schedule that has featured road games at Mississippi State and Troy.  The 15-38 loss at Mississippi State was a misleading final because they were only outgained by 42 yards.  Then they outgained Troy by 98 yards in their 47-42 win last week. 

This is a Southern Miss offense that returned 10 starters and is hitting on all cylinders.  They are scoring 33.3 points per game and averaging 453 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  They are averaging 79 yards and 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average this season.  They can certainly move the ball and score on this Alabama defense that gave up 459 total yards to a bad South Carolina offense last week. 

This is an early start time at 12:00 AM EST and won’t be the same kind of home-field advantage for Alabama as it would be if it was a night game.  They are just looking to get in and get out with a victory.  Southern Miss is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games.  The Golden Eagles are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. C-USA opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.   

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Alabama) - outgaining opponents by 1.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in two straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (Southern Miss) - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with eight or more offensive starters including QB returning, in the first month of the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1992.  Alabama is once again overvalued this week.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday. 

20* Air Force/Boise State MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +8.5 

Air Force is a team I was very high on coming into the year.  The Falcons are coming off a 5-7 season, but they were much better than their record would indicate last year.  Four of their losses came by 3, 3, 4 and 6 points.  In fact, all seven of their losses came by 10 points or less, so they were competitive in every game they played.  They can only have better luck in close games this season. 

Air Force returns a whopping 15 starters, which is a ton for a service academy.  It’s their most returning starters since 2014, when they went 10-3.  This is easily the best team Air Force has had in years, and I have no doubt they will be one of the most improved teams in the country. 

The Falcons got off to a flying start by handling Colgate 48-7 as 20.5-point favorites in their opener.  They rushed for 423 yards and will be a force on the ground again with four returning starters along the offensive line.  Then after a bye, they went into Colorado last week and pulled off the 30-23 upset as 3-point underdogs.  It was no fluke as they outgained the Buffaloes by 119 yards behind 289 rushing yards.  They even turned the ball over three times and still won. 

Few teams have played Boise State tougher than Air Force in Mountain West action in recent years.  Indeed, Air Force is 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with three outright upsets.  And I just think this Boise State team is overrated after going on the road and beating Florida State in the opener.  As we’ve seen since, that FSU team just isn’t very good.  Boise State only beat Marshall by 7 as 14-point favorites at home two weeks ago before making easy work of Portland State last week. 

The blue turf at Boise State just hasn’t been the advantage it used to be.  The Broncos are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games.  Boise State is also 7-15 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.  Air Force is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Brian Harsin is 2-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State.  Bet Air Force Friday. 

20* Houston/Tulane ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on OVER 55.5 

This total opened around 60 and has been bet down to 56 and lower as of this writing.  I think the value is now there to pull the trigger on the OVER.  Bettors are overreacting to the fact that these teams are a combined 5-0 to the under this season.  But two of those unders came by a combined 2 points. 

These are two teams I have been high on early in the season.  And a big reason I’m high on them is because of their offenses.  I expect a shootout between two of the best offenses in the AAC on a fast track down in New Orleans.  And the offenses have an advantage on a short week like this. 

I loved the move by Willie Fritz to turn over his offense to new coordinator Will Hall.  They have moved away from the triple-option and have gone to more of a spread option and faster tempo.  The result has been 35.3 points and 436 yards per game this season.  And that’s with a road game at Auburn on the schedule in which they scored just 6 points. 

Houston’s offense is loaded with eight returning starters for new head coach Dana Holgorsen.  That includes star QB D’Eriq King, who accounted for 50 total touchdowns last year despite missing two games.  And Houston has played a brutal schedule thus far with road games against Oklahoma and Washington State.  But they are still averaging 30.7 points per game. 

Tulane’s defense hasn’t been tested against an offense as explosive as this Houston unit.  And it’s worth mentioning that Houston has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They are giving up 32.3 points per game, 506 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play this season.  They were awful in the second half of the season defensively last year and only returned four starters on that side of the ball this year. 

Houston is 18-5 OVER in its last 23 games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cougars last seven games on field turf.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Cougars last five road games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Cougars last six conference games.  Finally, these teams combined for 65 points last year in Houston.  They should have no problem topping 55.5 here in the rematch, especially with Tulane’s improved offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +32.5 

The Texas Longhorns are in a massive flat spot here Saturday against Rice.  Texas played in a huge game at home against LSU last week and came up short in a 38-45 shootout.  Now they have their Big 12 opener on deck against Oklahoma State.  I just can’t see them putting forth a very good effort here as they are deflated off that LSU loss, and they just want to get on to Oklahoma State and get out of here with a win against Rice. Asking them to cover 32.5 points in this flat spot is asking too much. 

Texas allowed 573 total yards to a mediocre LSU offense last week.  That came a week after they gave up 413 total yards against Louisiana Tech in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  That’s a LA Tech team that went on to only beat Grambling 20-14 as 30-point home favorites last week.  It’s a young Texas defense that returned just three starters and lost each of its top three tacklers from a year ago. 

I have been impressed with this Rice team thus far.  Former Stanford offensive coordinator Mike Bloomgren has been trying to copy the blueprint at Stanford.  He has recruited some big offensive linemen so the Owls can move people up front.  They are trying to run the ball and shorten games, which gives them the best chance to be competitive despite the lack of skill talent. 

Rice only lost 7-14 at Army as 23-point underdogs in their opener.  That’s an Army team that went on to nearly upset Michigan, losing in overtime in the Big House last week.  It’s also an Army team that won 11 games last year, so it just shows what Rice is capable of. 

Last week, Rice lost 21-41 at home to Wake Forest as 20-point dogs to push the number.  They showed they could throw the ball if needed, passing for 254 yards on 22-of-35 attempts.  I know starting QB Wiley Green was injured in that game, but Harvard transfer Tom Stewart stepped in and did a great job.  Stewart has been the better QB thus far, completing 63.3% of his 30 attempts compared to 52.6% on 19 attempts for Green.  So I think the QB injury here is getting factored into the line too much. 

The Owls are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have been undervalued because the betting public has wanted nothing to do with them.  Rice is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  Texas will be more than satisfied with a victory by three or four touchdowns, and don’t be surprised if this game is much closer than anticipated with the sandwich spot for the Longhorns.  Bet Rice Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -7 

The Virginia Cavaliers are a team on the rise under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  He has improved this team in each of his first three seasons, going from 2-10 in Year 1 to 6-7 in Year 2 and 8-5 in Year 3 last season.  Now he has his best team yet and some stability in the program with how well he has recruited.  The Cavaliers are a legit contender to win the Coastal this year. 

Last year, the Cavaliers lost five games, but three were by 4 points or fewer.  They were in every game they played.  Now they have 14 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters back from a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game. 

Offensively, the Cavaliers return stud quarterback Bryce Perkins, which will help make up for the fact that they only return six starters on that side of the ball.  Perkins threw for 2,680 yards with a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 923 yards and nine scores.  The offensive line returns three starters and they have 17 offensive linemen on scholarship, so Mendenhall now has the numbers he wants up front. 

Virginia is off to an impressive 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Pittsburgh handily 30-14 on the road in Week 1 while limiting the Panthers to just 263 total yards.  That’s a Pitt team that went on to beat a good Ohio team 20-10 at home last week.  Then Virginia handled their business in a 52-17 win over William & Mary as 32.5-point favorites last week. 

Florida State failed to make a bowl game last year at 5-7.  Many thought they’d bounce back this season, but from what I’ve seen so far, they are just a bad, undisciplined football team.  Florida State lost its opener 31-36 at home to Boise State as 6.5-point favorites.  Then, the Seminoles were fortunate to escape with a 45-44 (OT) home victory over Louisiana-Monroe as 23-point favorites last week. 

It’s clear the Seminoles have an awful defense.  They are giving up 40.0 points and 520.0 yards per game this season.  And that’s where the difference lies in this football game.  Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 15.5 points and 228 yards per game through their first two games.  These teams are similar offensively. 

I also like the fact that this is a night game for Virginia, so it will be a rowdy atmosphere in Charlottesville.  Fans are very excited about this team as they have a great chance to win the Coastal and get to the ACC Championship Game.  Virginia has easily been the most impressive team in the Coastal thus far, and arguably the second-best team in the ACC behind Clemson.

I'm definitely starting to believe that Willie Taggart is an overrated head coach.  If he can't make the talent work in Tallahassee, that's on him.  And Taggart is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS as a road underdogs in his time between Oregon and Florida State with the five ATS losses coming by an average of 17 points per game.

Florida State is 0-7 ATS off a home game over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 6-0 ATS in the first month of the season over the last two years.  Mendenhall is 11-1 ATS off a non-conference game as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Cavaliers.  Take Virginia Saturday.

15* Clemson/Syracuse ACC ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +28.5 

I faded Clemson with success last week on Texas A&M.  And I’m fading them again for many of the same reasons.  Being the No. 1 team in the country and the defending national champs comes with expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are hard to live up to.  The Tigers are lucky not to be 0-2 ATS as Georgia Tech fumbled going into the end zone, losing by 38 as 36.5-point dogs. 

Last week, Clemson wasn’t all that dominant at home against Texas A&M.  They won 24-10 as 15.5-point favorites and only outgained the Aggies by 100 yards.  All the hype surrounding Trevor Lawrence may be getting to him.  He has thrown two touchdowns against three interceptions and is only averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. 

This is the perfect ‘buy low’ situation on Syracuse.  Many thought Syracuse was the second-best team in the ACC coming into the season because they won 10 games last year.  After beating Liberty 24-0, the Orange fell flat last week amidst the big expectations and lost 20-63 at Maryland.  That was exactly the humbling they needed, and it was clearly a lookahead spot for them to this Clemson game, so you can understand the poor performance. 

Syracuse is clearly better than they showed against Maryland last week.  They returned 13 starters this year, including seven on defense and are better on that side of the ball than the 63 points they allowed to Maryland.  Keep in mind they shut out Liberty the previous week.  And offensively, Tommy DeVito now has two starts under his belt and should be much more comfortable moving forward.  He has leading rusher Moe Neal and three of his top four receivers back from last year, so it’s only a matter of time before this Dino Babers offense takes off after scoring 40.2 points per game last year. 

Syracuse has played Clemson as tough as anyone the last two years.  They won 27-24 as 23-point underdogs in the Carrier Dome in 2017.  Then they came back last year and led most the way at Clemson before giving up a late score to lose 23-27 as 24.5-point dogs.  Imagine the disrespect they are feeling now as 28.5-point underdogs at home this year after taking Clemson to the wire each of the last two seasons.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.  And it will be a great night time atmosphere with this game behind played at 7:30 PM EST inside the Carrier Dome. 

Dabo Swinney is 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson.  Te Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six September games.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Syracuse is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight September games.  The Orange are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Syracuse Saturday. 

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -10 

Louisville came into the season way undervalued.  They went 2-10 last season and Bobby Petrino was let go before season’s end.  Simply put, the Cardinals quit on Petrino.  They lost their final nine games and were never really competitive.  I have no doubt the talent level on that team was better than their 2-10 record.  And keep in mind that Louisville had been to eight straight bowl games prior to last year.  They had won 8 or more games in six straight seasons coming into 2018. 

I loved the hiring of Scott Satterfield in the offseason.  He came over from Appalachian State where he compiled a 51-24 record there.  Fortunately for Satterfield, the cupboard wasn’t left bare.  Louisville returned 16 starters in all.  They should be one of the most improved defensive teams in the country with 10 starters back on that side of the ball. 

So far, so good for Satterfield and company.  I was very impressed with their 17-35 loss to Notre Dame as 18.5-point favorites in the opener.  That’s a Notre Dame team that went 12-0 in the regular season last year and made the four-team playoff.  And they played the Fighting Irish toe-to-toe, only getting outgained by 31 yards.  The difference was the 3-to-1 turnover edge for the Irish. 

Last week, Louisville took it to Eastern Kentucky 42-0 as 21-point favorites.  They outgained Eastern Kentucky by 370 total yards and held them to just 172 yards of offense.  It’s the type of team that Louisville would have struggled against last season.  But this is clearly a revamped and revitalized Louisville squad under the leadership of Satterfield. 

Western Kentucky is getting way too much respect for beating Florida International 20-14 last week.  That’s an FIU team that lost 14-42 to Tulane in their opener.  It’s clear that FIU was one of the most overrated teams in the country coming into the season. 

I think the home loss to Central Arkansas 28-35 as 10-point favorites in the opener is a better sign of how good this Western Kentucky team is.  Losing to an FCS opponent as a double-digit favorite is never a good sign.  They gave up 404 passing yards to Central Arkansas in the loss. 

Louisville is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. Conference USA opponents.  Western Kentucky is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.  This spread is also low because Louisville only beat WKU 20-17 last year.  But like I said, that was a team that quit on Petrino, and now they are ‘all in’ for Satterfield and playing up to their talent level.  I expect this game to be over by halftime.  Take Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Air Force +5 

The Colorado Buffaloes are in a massive letdown spot this week.  They came back from 17-0 down at halftime to beat Nebraska 34-31 in overtime last week.  They have their Pac-12 opener on deck against Arizona State next week, making this a sandwich game for them. 

Now the Buffaloes have to try and get ready for the Air Force triple-option in just one week’s time, which is very hard to do.  And this is a Colorado defense that has been absolutely gashed this season.  They have given up 487 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They have actually been outgained on the season despite their 2-0 start, and I think they’re overrated because of it. 

Air Force is a team I’ve very high on coming into the year.  The Falcons are coming off a 5-7 season, but they were much better than their record would indicate last year.  Four of their losses came by 3, 3, 4 and 6 points.  In fact, all seven of their losses came by 10 points or less, so they were competitive in every game they played.  They can only have better luck in close games this season. 

Air Force returns a whopping 15 starters, which is a ton for a service academy.  It’s their most returning starters since 2014, when they went 10-3.  This is easily the best team Air Force has had in years, and I have no doubt they will be one of the most improved teams in the country. 

The Falcons are off to a flying start by handling Colgate 48-7 as 20.5-point favorites in their opener.  They rushed for 423 yards and will be a force on the ground again with four returning starters along the offensive line.  And they had a bye last week to get ready for Colorado, giving them a big edge in rest and preparation. 

The Falcons are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, including 8-1 ATS in none-conference games overall the last three seasons.  Colorado is 1-9 ATS after a game where 60 or more total points were scored over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Bet Air Force Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Temple +7.5 

Talk about an overreaction.  Maryland has started 2-0 with two blowout wins over Howard (79-0) and Syracuse (63-20).  Now they are ranked 24th in the country and getting a ton of hype.  This is exactly the type of spot I like to fade teams in. 

Temple didn’t play last week as they had a bye, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for Maryland.  You know that they are going to be extra amped for this game hearing all the good things about Maryland in the media.  And the Owls love being counted out as they have been one of the best money makers in college football over the last few years, especially in the underdog role. 

New Temple head coach Rod Carey comes over from Northern Illinois.  He won at least 8 games in five of his six seasons at NIU and three MAC titles.  He brought over both his offensive and defensive coordinators from NIU, so there will be some stability here. 

The cupboard clearly isn’t bare for Carey, either.  Temple returned 14 starters from a team that went 8-5 last year.  Their four losses during the regular season all came by 12 points or less, so they were competitive in every game.  And one of those games included a 35-14 win at Maryland as 15-point underdogs.  They outgained the Terrapins 429 to 195 in that beat down.  So you can imagine how they feel about being 7-point dogs in the rematch. 

Temple returns a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.  They have seven starters back on offense from a unit that put up 34.7 points per game, including QB Anthony Russo and five linemen with starting experience.  The defense also returns seven starters from a unit that allowed 27.1 points per game.  Seven of the top 10 tacklers are back. 

Temple took care of business 56-12 as 40-point favorites over Canisius in their opener.  You would expect them to struggle a little in their first game with a new head coach, but that didn’t happen at all.  They put up 695 yards on offense, including 507 passing yards as they weren’t afraid at all to let loose and air it out.  Their defense gave up just 211 total yards, including 21 rushing on 26 attempts. 

Stopping the run will be the key to stopping Maryland.  The Terrapins have rushed for over 300 yards in each of their first two games, but those were against two bad defenses in Howard and Syracuse.  Temple has been known for stopping the run and great linebackers.  They have allowed 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in four of the past five seasons.  I expect them to be great against the run again this season with five starters back in their front seven. 

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Temple) - a team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 74-33 (69.2%) ATS since 1992.  It’s really time to ’sell high’ on Maryland this week. 

The Owls are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 280 or more passing yards last game.  Maryland is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Terrapins are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games following a win, and 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games off an ATS win.  Maryland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Temple Saturday.

20* K-State/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State +8.5 

Kansas State got a great hire to replace the legendary Bill Snyder this offseason.  Chris Klieman won four FCS national titles in his five seasons at North Dakota State.  And he stepped into a good situation at Kansas State with 14 returning starters. 

The Wildcats are off to an impressive 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Nicholls State by 35 as 20.5-point favorites.  They beat Bowling Green 52-0 as 24.5-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 42 points in their first two games. 

The defense has been really impressive and allowed just 140 total yards to Bowling Green last week.  That’s a Bowling Green offense that had 620 yards and 46 points in their opener.  The Wildcats also brought back a veteran QB in Skyler Thompson, who has played well.  And the running game has produced an average of 347 yards per game and 6 yards per carry thus far. 

Kansas State wants revenge from a 31-10 home loss to Mississippi State last year.  But that was a Mississippi State team that was way better than this 2019 version.  I am way down on these Bulldogs and the UNDER 7.5 wins for them was one of my favorite win totals coming into the season. 

I think the loss of Dan Mullen will be felt this season.  Jim Moorhead no longer has Mullen’s recruits to rely on.  The Bulldogs returned just 11 starters this season.  The defense lost three first-round draft picks.  And they lost their stud QB in Nick Fitzgerald on offense. 

I have not been impressed at all by Mississippi State thus far despite their 2-0 start.  The only beat Louisiana Lafayette by 10 as 18.5-point favorites in their opener.  They beat Southern Miss by 23 as 16-point favorites last week, but that was a misleading final.  They only outgained Lafayette by 67 yards and Southern Miss by 42 yards.   

The Bulldogs even took advantage of a combined 8 turnovers forced by their defense, yet still weren’t impressive.  Kansas State isn’t the type of team that beats themselves.  The Bulldogs won’t be gifted those same turnovers by the Wildcats. 

I think Mississippi State could be overlooking Kansas State with its SEC opener on deck next week.  Conversely, Kansas State has a bye next week, so they’ll be all in especially since they are seeking revenge. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas State) - after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Kansas State is 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Bet Kansas State Saturday. 

20* Washington State/Houston ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +9 

This is technically a neutral site game.  However, it will be played in Houston at NRG Stadium, which is the home of the Texans.  There’s no question the Cougars will have a home field advantage in this one. 

It’s a Houston team I was high on coming into the season.  They brought back eight starters on offense, including QB D’Eriq King, who accounted for 50 total touchdowns last year despite missing two games.  They will never be out of any game with King running the show under first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. 

We saw that against Oklahoma in the opener as the Cougars got down by 25 points, but clawed back to get within 11 late in the fourth quarter.  The Sooners tacked on a rushing TD from 21 yards out with 1:17 left to push the final margin back to 18 when they were just trying to run out the clock.  That effort on the road against the Sooners shows shat Houston is capable of as Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the country. 

Last week was clearly a flat spot for Houston and a sandwich game between Oklahoma and Washington State.  It’s no surprise they came out flat and only beat Prairie View 37-17 as 36-point favorites.  I think they are now undervalued because everyone is seeing that result and thinking that Houston isn’t very good.  But human nature is the reason why they didn’t perform up to par in that game. 

Now the Cougars will be ’sky high’ with Washington State coming to town.  This is a Cougars team I’m way down on after a school record 11 wins last year.  They are overvalued early in the season, especially after two blowout wins against a couple cupcakes to start the season. 

They beat New Mexico State 58-7 as 33.5-point favorites and Northern Colorado 59-17 as 43-point favorites. New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in FBS and lost to Alabama 10-62 last week.  Northern Colorado is one of the worst teams in FCS.  They lost to San Jose State 35-18 in their opener, and San Jose State lost 16-34 at home to Tulsa last week. 

The betting public is going to see those scores and automatically jump on Washington State.  There’s clearly value with Houston because of it.  Give Mike Leach props for a great season last year, but the schedule was very easy and gets a lot tougher this season.  They also lost QB Gardner Minshew, who had a monster season after transferring from Eastern Washington. 

I realize it has been basically plug and play at QB for Washington State.  And the offense should be fine again, but the defense only returns six starters.  They have allowed 336.0 yards per game to New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  Their defense was much better last year and that’s the biggest reason they won 11 games.  They lost a lot of talent from that stop unit.   

King and company should be able to score at will on them.  Houston averaged 47.8 points and 541 yards per game in games in which King started last year.  Now that he has two games under his belt in Holgorsen’s new offense, he should start to really shine after a somewhat slow start to the season.  King has six total touchdowns (3 passing, 3 rushing) and only one interception thus far. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - a bad defensive team from last season that allowed 425 or more total yards per game, with eight or more offensive starters including their QB returning are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1992. 

Mike Leach is 0-7 ATS in road games after two consecutive games where his team forced three or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  HIs teams have never covered in this situation.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +55.5 

This game is all about fading Alabama in the big favorite role.  Nick Saban is quicker to pull his starters than almost any other head coach in this situation.  He wants to get his backups more playing time, and he doesn’t want to show too much, especially with their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina next week. 

New Mexico State is not a good team, but they return 14 starters and are experienced.  I think the fact they lost 7-58 to Washington State last week is pushing this spread up higher than it should be.  Washington State threw the ball 49 times and only ran it 20 times.  They were trying to get their passing game going with a new quarterback. 

Alabama won’t be looking to throw the ball all over the yard.  They will run it more than they pass it, which will keep the clock running and shorten the game, helping New Mexico State stay within this number.  And I think NMSU’s offense was better than the 7 points showed last week as they had 317 total yards but committed three turnovers.  Also, they held Washington State to 111 rushing yards on those 20 carries. 

Saban is 3-11 ATS as a home favorite of 42.5 or more points as the coach of Alabama, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 50 or more points having never covered in this situation.  These trends just show that he takes his foot off the gas all the time in this large favorite roles.  He has respect for his opponents and doesn’t run up the score. 

Plays against home favorites of 31.5 or more points (Alabama) - after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more total yards against an opponent that was outgained by 125 or more total yards last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Aggies after failing to cover against Washington State, and ‘sell high’ on the Crimson Tide after covering against Duke.  Roll with New Mexico State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Central Michigan +35 

The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off one of the most impressive wins of Week 1.  They beat South Florida 49-0 as 10-point road favorites.  Now it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Badgers, who come back as whopping 35-point favorites over Central Michigan this week. 

While impressive, that win against South Florida I think has more to do with the direction of the Bulls than anything.  Charlie Strong was a disaster in Texas and has been a disaster thus far at South Florida.  This team lost their final six games last year once the competition got tougher after a 7-0 start.  Wisconsin was simply able to maul them and continue USF’s downward spiral. 

Central Michigan has been one of the best MAC programs throughout the years.  But they are coming off a dreadful 1-11 season, so I think we are definitely ‘buying low’ on them to start the season.  They had been bowl eligible in six straight seasons before bottoming out at 1-11 last year.  There’s reason for optimism in Mt. Pleasant moving forward. 

That’s because Central Michigan had one of the best hires of the offseason in Jim McElwain.  He has been a winner everywhere he has gone, turning around Colorado State in his three years there before landing the Florida job.  He has a 44-28 record as a head coach and is instantly one of the best coaches in the MAC now. 

McElwain has always been an offensive guy, and he actually has some nice talent to work with in his eight returning starters.  That doesn’t even count Tennessee transfer QB Quinten Dormady, who was a Top 20 recruit coming out of high school.  Dormady won the job in camp and was great in Week 1. 

Central Michigan beat Albany 38-21 as 13.5-point favorites int heir opener.  This was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as they outgained Albany 529 to 244, or by 285 total yards.  Dormady went 27-of-37 for 285 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  The Chippewas rushed for 244 yards as a team as well. 

Wisconsin just can’t seem to get over the injury bug that has plagued them the last few seasons.  The Badgers have a ton of projected starters coming into the season that are out with injuries this week.  They include NT Bryson Williams, S Scott Nelson, RT Logan Bruss and LB Chris Orr.  That’s a lot of starters to be missing this early in the season for a team that returned just 12 starters and was projected to start eight sophomores. 

Paul Chryst is 1-10 ATS after leading their previous game by 17 or more points at half as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Chryst is 3-11 ATS off a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Chippewas are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Central Michigan Saturday. 

15* Texas A&M/Clemson ABC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M +17.5 

Being the No. 1 team in the country coming off a national championship comes with a heavy price tag when it comes to betting.  That’s the case for the Clemson Tigers, who are going to have inflated spreads week in and week out moving forward.  It’s going to make it very difficult for them to cover consistently knowing that the betting public will be quick to back them at any numbers, forcing oddsmakers to inflate their spreads. 

Clemson was fortunate to cover as 36.5-point favorites in a 52-14 win over Georgia Tech last week.  Georgia Tech was putting in a new system under a new coach going away from the triple-option from year’s past, so this was always going to be a tough test for them.  And Georgia Tech fumbled on the 1-yard line going into the end zone for a touchback, and their four turnovers overall were the difference in them covering or not. 

Texas A&M will be the best team that Clemson faces during the regular season, and it’s not even close.  I think the Aggies are fully capable of hanging with Clemson, and they proved that last year.  Clemson only won 28-26 as 11.5-point road favorites at Texas A&M.  I’d argue the Aggies deserved to win that game as they outgained the Tigers by 88 yards and racked up 501 total yards in the loss. 

Jimbo Fisher is one of my favorite head coaches.  He won a National Championship at Florida State and won 10-plus games in five of his final six seasons.  Then he came to Texas A&M and in his first year went 9-4 for their first season of nine-plus since since 2013.  And Fisher is killing it in recruiting, which will keep the Aggies as an SEC West contender for years to come. 

Only 11 starters are back for Texas A&M, but more of his recruits will be seeing playing time this year, which makes them more veteran than that 11 number shows.  And the offense is loaded with seven returning starters, including stud QB Kellen Mond, who accounted for 31 touchdowns last year.  He accounted for four touchdowns in their 41-7 win over Texas State last week as 34-point favorites. 

Clemson also has a loaded offense with eight starters back, but they have some of the same problems as Texas A&M on defense.  Both squads return just four starters on defense.  The Tigers lose their entire defensive line from last year to the NFL.  I know they have talented replacements, but I think Mond can have more success just like he had last year against their defense.  Mond threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson last year. 

Texas A&M is 12-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Texas A&M is 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 September games. 

Plays on road teams (Texas A&M) - after a game where they forced four or more turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Nebraska/Colorado FOX No-Brainer on Nebraska -4 

The Nebraska hype in the offseason was definitely off the charts.  And they failed to live up to it in Week 1 as they won just 35-21 as 35-point favorites against South Alabama.  Now that the hype has cooled, I think it’s time to jump on Nebraska against Colorado this week as only 4-point favorites. 

The comments coming from Nebraska’s locked room after the game were the type of comments I like to hear.  Both head coach Scott Frost and QB Adrian Martinez were disappointed.  Frost said that’s one of the worst offensive performances he’s ever been a part of, and Martinez said their performance was unacceptable. 

I have no doubt the Huskers will put their best foot forward this week.  Not just because they weren’t satisfied with their performance against South Alabama, but also because they want revenge on Colorado from a 28-33 home loss to the Buffaloes last year.  That was a very misleading loss as the Huskers outgained the Buffaloes 565 to 395, but lost the turnover battle 3-0. 

Colorado is getting a lot of respect now after beating Colorado State 52-31 as 11-point favorites in their opener.  That was a misleading final too as the Buffaloes were outgained in the game and actually gave up a whopping 505 total yards to the Rams.  But they won the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference.  And that’s a Colorado State team that has been trending in the wrong direction in recent years. 

Colorado is a rebuilding team this year with a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker.  They return just 11 starters.  The Buffaloes do have a good offense with seven starters back, but their defense only has four starters back and should be one of the worst units in the Pac-12.  That was on display last week as they gave up those 505 yards to Colorado State. 

Even thought this is technically a home game for Colorado, it won’t feel like one.  That’s because Nebraska fans travel almost as well as anyone, and it’s a short trip to Boulder.  They will have nearly 50% of the fans there as I know for sure Colorado allotted at least 30% of the tickets for Nebraska fans.  So this will be closer to a neutral site game, and Nebraska is much better than -4 against Colorado on a neutral. 

Colorado is 0-9 ATS after a game where 60 or more points were scored over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 11.0 points per game in this spot.  The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game.  They are losing by 10.8 points per game in this spot.  We’ll buy low on the Huskers in after last week’s performance and in a revenge spot here.  Bet Nebraska Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +20.5 

Rutgers came into the season undervalued after going 1-11 last year.  I backed Rutgers over UMass in Week 1 and they delivered with a 48-21 victory as 17-point favorites.  After a slow start, they showed some great resiliency and scored the final 41 points of the game. 

This is easily Chris Ash’s best team yet in his 4 years here.  The offense looks to be greatly improved after putting up 554 yards on UMass.  Texas Tech transfer McLane Carter threw for 340 yards in the win, and the Scarlet Knights may finally have a quarterback.  They have always had a competitive defense under Ash, which helps keep them in ball games. 

Rutgers is now 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall dating back to last season.  They covered in each of their final five games of the season against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State last year.  They nearly upset Northwestern losing by just 3 as 20-point dogs.  They also lost by only 4 as 24-point dogs at Michigan State. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes aren’t a team built to cover these big spreads.  They run a ball control offense and a bend but don’t break defense.  It’s tough for them to score enough points to cover these lofty margins.  They didn’t cover as 25-point favorites against Miami Ohio last week.  And they even scored 2 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes of that game to turn a 10-point game into a 24-point win. 

Iowa has a huge game on deck next week against Iowa State.  They could easily be looking ahead to that Top 25 showdown and overlooking Rutgers.  Either way, I think Rutgers is talented enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of the Hawkeyes.  Kirk Ferentz is 19-31 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of Iowa. 

Plays on road underdogs (Rutgers) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game, with eight or more offensive starters including their QB returning are 124-69 (64.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

20* Marshall/Boise State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Marshall +12.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd have been a power in Conference USA since Doc Holliday has been there.  He enters his 10th season this year having won eight or more games in five of the last six years overall.  Coming off a 9-4 season last year, the Thundering Herd return 14 starters and are among the favorites to win C-USA. 

Marshall gave up just 21.9 points per game last year and brought back six of its top nine tacklers from that unit.  The stop unit will be good again, and this figures to be one of Marshall’s best offenses in years with eight starters back, including QB Isaiah Green. 

That Marshall offense impressed in Week 1 by beating VMI 56-17.  It’s worth noting it was a 49-7 game heading into the 4th quarter before the Thundering Herd called off the dogs.  Green threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in the win. 

Boise State used a lot of energy coming back from 31-13 down at Florida State to win 36-31 in the heat and humidity last week.  Now the Broncos are on a short week here and probably won’t have a ton left in the tank.  It’s also a letdown spot after that huge road win in Tallahassee. 

The blue turf in Boise State isn’t the advantage it used to be.  The Broncos have consistently been overvalued at home.  They are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games.  Brian Harsin is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State.  Harsin is also 1-9 ATS after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Broncos. 

Plays against home favorites (Boise State) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against an opponent that outrushed its last opponent by 200 or more yards are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Marshall Friday. 

15* Notre Dame/Louisville ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +18.5 

This is a great opportunity to buy low on Louisville and sell high on Notre Dame in Week 1.  Louisville is coming off a disastrous 2-10 season last year that came out of nowhere.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame went 12-1 and made the four-team playoff, so expectations are way high on them now. 

Simply put, players quit on head coach Bobby Petrino last year.  They lost their final nine games and rarely were competitive.  Petrino was fired with two games left.  I have no doubt the talent level on that team was better than their 2-10 record, and now new head coach Scott Satterfield should get the most out of these players. 

Satterfield comes over from Appalachian State where he posted a 51-24 record in his six years there.  Fortunately for Satterfield, the cupboard isn’t bare as the Cardinals return 16 starters.  This should be one of the most improved defenses in the country with 10 starters back on defense. 

Offensively, the Cardinals return six starters, including starting QB Jawon Pass.  He has had a lot of success in the simplified offense in the offseason and is ready to take this offense to the next level.  He has stated that he wants to prove to himself and his teammates that they are better than they showed last year, and now it’s time to prove it on the field in Week 1. 

Notre Dame has 13 starters back and is certainly talented, but they have rarely been this heavy of a road favorite under Brian Kelly.  They will have to replace their top two playmakers in RB Dexter Williams and WR Miles Boykin.  Defensively, the Fighting Irish lose three of their top five tacklers from last year and three NFL draft picks. 

Louisville had been to a bowl game in eight straight seasons prior to going 2-10 last year.  They had also won 8 or more games in six straight seasons coming into 2018.  I just don’t think this program will stay down for long, especially with a coach the caliber of Satterfield running the show.  The Cardinals will give the Fighting Irish more than they bargained for in Week 1.  Roll with Louisville Monday. 

15* Houston/Oklahoma ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 80 

This UNDER bet has a lot to do with Oklahoma.  After having a dominant offense over the last two years with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray running the show, the Sooners are sure to take a big step back offensively this year with Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts.  He is just as good of a runner or better than both those guys, but he is nowhere near the passer that they were. 

Not to mention, only four starters return on offense.  The Sooners lose leading receiver Marquise Brown and his 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns to the NFL.  Four NFL draft picks are gone from an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award after being named the nation’s top O-Line.  They have three sophomore starters and just 36 career starts returning up front. 

I expect Oklahoma to have one of the most improved defenses in the country after a subpar season that saw them allow 33.3 points and 454 yards per game.  They fired Mike Stoops midseason and now have replaced him with Alex Grinch, who was the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State last year.  Grinch has a ton of talent and experience to work with as the Sooners return eight starters and eight of their top nine tacklers. 

Houston has some talent on offense with QB D’Eriq King and all of his top playmakers back.  But there will be some growing pains early under new head coach Dana Holgorsen and his new scheme.  His scheme is much more complex than the one they ran last year, and it won’t be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1 against this tough Oklahoma defense. 

Houston was decimated by injuries lsat year down the stretch and the numbers took a hit because of it.  I know that they only have four starters back on defense this year, but this unit can only stay healthier.  And they are more experienced than that considering several players were forced into action due to the injuries.  Houston is projected to start nine upperclassmen, which shows the experience. 

Simply put, I believe this total has been inflated based on what these teams did last year.  The Sooners were 9-4 to the OVER while the Cougars were 10-4 to the OVER last year.  Oddsmakers have been forced to adjust accordingly, and this 80-point total is simply too high now. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Houston) - in non-conference D1 games, with an experienced QB returning as a starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 37-12 (75.5%) since 1992.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Cougars last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +20.5 

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have been as consistent as they come under 7th-year head coach Skip Holtz.  They have won anywhere from 7 to 9 games over the last five seasons since going just 4-8 in his first year on the job.  It’s a team that has proven they can play with the big boys throughout the years, and they are also a contender to win Conference USA. 

The Bulldogs gave up just 23.0 points per game on defense last year and should be good again on that side of the ball with five of their top eight tacklers back.  The improvements should come on offense after averaging just 24.7 points pre game last year.  That was a real down season for a Holtz offense because they had scored 30-plus points per game in the four seasons prior.  Look for them to get back up above that number this season. 

The offense returns six starters and almost all the top playmakers.  QB J’Mar Smith is back after throwing for 3,160 yards and 15 touchdowns while also rushing for three more.  Leading receiver Adrian Hardy (75 receptions, 1,145 yards, 6 TD) is also back, as is leading rusher Jaqwis Dancy (667 yards, 9 TD).  The offensive line returns three starters and 78 career starts and should stay healthier than last year.  This is the 25th-most experienced team in the country. 

I just don’t understand all the hype for the Texas Longhorns this year.  They are getting a lot of respect for going 10-4 last year and beating Georgia in the bowl.  That was a Georgia team that didn’t want to be there after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game that cost them a spot in the four-team playoff.  And keep in mind seven of Texas’ 10 wins last year came by 7 points or fewer, so they were fortunate in close games.  They only won one game by 20-plus points all season. 

Now Texas is one of the least-experienced teams in the country with just eight starters back.  The defense returns just three starters and loses seven of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  This will probably be Tom Herman’s worst defense since he’s been here.  The offense returns just five starters, loses its leading rusher and receiver, and just two starters are back on the offensive line.  Sam Ehlinger is a nice talent, but he will have his hands full early in the season getting in sync with his O-Line and skill players. 

This is definitely a lookahead spot for Texas.  They have a massive game with LSU on deck next week at home.  They could easily be overlooking Louisiana Tech.  And we’ve seen the Longhorns struggle in these early season games against non-conference teams recently.  They’ve been upset by Maryland as 17 and 13-point favorites each of the last two years.  And they barely beat Tulsa 28-21 at home as 22-point favorites last year. 

Louisiana Tech is 7-1 ATS as a dog of 20-plus points over the last 10 yards.  Skip Holtz is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 20-plus points in his career as a head coach.  Holtz is 27-14 ATS in road games as the coach of Louisiana Tech, including 14-4-1 ATS as a road dog over the past five years.  Herman is just 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.  The Bulldogs are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games overall.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -2.5 

The Virginia Cavaliers are a team on the rise under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  He has improved this team in each of his first three seasons, going from 2-10 in Year 1 to 6-7 in Year 2 and 8-5 in Year 3 last season.  Now he has his best team yet and some stability in the program with how well he has recruited.  The Cavaliers are a legit contender to win the Coastal this year. 

Last year, the Cavaliers lost five games, but three were by 4 points or fewer.  They were in every game they played.  Now they have 14 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters back from a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game. 

Offensively, the Cavaliers return stud quarterback Bryce Perkins, which will help make up for the fact that they only return six starters on that side of the ball.  Perkins threw for 2,680 yards with a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 923 yards and nine scores.  The offensive line returns three starters and they have 17 offensive linemen on scholarship, so Mendenhall now has the numbers he wants up front. 

Pittsburgh came out of nowhere to win the Coastal last year.  They did so despite finishing with just a 7-7 record, and they clearly weren’t the best team in the Coastal.  Now the Panthers have just 101 starters back this year and I expect them to be one of the worst teams in the division. 

The losses on offense are huge as they return just five starters and lose two 1,000-yard backs in Quadree Ollison (1,213 yards, 11 TD) and Darrin Hall (1,144 yards, 10 TD).  They rushed for 228 yards per game last year, but only passed for 142 per game.  So now they are going to have to throw the ball more with Kenny Pickett, who only completed 58.1% of his passes last year and just isn’t that good.  Only one starter returns on the offensive line and just 37 career starts.  Pickett will struggle once again this season, especially in Week 1 against one of the best defenses in the country. 

Pittsburgh had just a mediocre defense last year that gave up 27.8 points and 388 yards per game.  After having nine starters back on that unit, the Panthers now only have five starters back on defense.  That was supposed to be six, but then their best defender in DE Rashad Weaver (47 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 14 TFL) suffered a season-ending ACL injury in fall camp.  So they now lose four of their top six tacklers and this unit won’t be better than last year. 

Virginia wants revenge from a 13-23 home loss to Pitt as 7-point favorites that ultimately cost them the Coastal.  I think the Cavaliers come into the season with a chip on their shoulder, while Pitt is still feeling fat and happy after winning the division.  The Cavaliers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Virginia Saturday. 

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -5.5 

This game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee due to the pending hurricane, so it will be a home game for the Seminoles.  It’s a Florida State team I’m buying low on early in the season. 

The Seminoles went 5-7 last year for their first losing season since 1976.  They had won 10-plus games in 5 straight years prior to last season.  It was a clear rebuilding year for first-year head coach Willie Taggart.  But unlike most programs, it only takes one year to rebuild Florida State because they recruit so much talent. 

I trust Taggart because he has been a winner everywhere he has gone.  And I think he rights the ship this year with 16 returning starters and a Top 10 recruiting class.  This team will be playing with a chip on their shoulder early.  The hire of offensive coordinator Kendall Briles was one of the best hires in the country. 

Briles guided Houston to 44 points per game & 513 yards per game last year.  In 2017, he was in charge of a Florida Atlantic offense that put up over 40 points pre game and nearly 500 yards per game while winning 11 games.  We saw how much their offense struggled without him last year.  And Briles oversaw a Baylor offense that averaged over 40 points per game and 500 yards per game in his two seasons as coordinator in 2015-16.   

This will be one of the most improved offenses in the country with eight starters back.  Sophomore James Blackman has been named quarterback and I like that move over Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook.  The offensive line was a mess last year, but it won’t be this year.  And the defense should also be vastly improved with eight starters back. 

Boise State has 13 starters back.  They are probably the class of the Mountain West this season, but that’s not saying much.  The biggest concern is losing a 4-year starter at quarterback in Brett Rypien who leaves as the school’s 2nd-leading passer.  Hank Bachmeier is a true freshman who will be making his first start.  He’s talented, but I can’t foresee his first start going well against an opponent the caliber of Florida State.  That’s especially the case the top 2 receivers and leading rusher Alex Mattison also gone from last year’s team. 

In recent years we’ve seen Boise State struggle in these early non-conference games.  They lost by 22 to Ole Miss, by 19 to Virginia and by 23 to Oklahoma State all within the last 5 years.  This is easily one of the toughest non-conference games they’ve ever faced.  Florida State has the talent edge and it’s really not even close.  I expect Taggart to get the most out of that talent starting in Week 1.  Bet Florida State Saturday. 

20* CFB Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rutgers -15 

Rutgers enters the 2019 season with the nation's longest losing streak at 11 games.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team, and I think we are getting them cheap in Week 1 as a result.  They should absolutely crush UMass in their home opener Friday night. 

Rutgers decided to stick with Chris Ash after their 1-11 season.  I think it was a good move to keep some chemistry here and now Ash has easily his best team yet.  And Rutgers wasn’t as bad as their 1-11 record last year either as they nearly beat both Northwestern and Michigan State late in the year.  They lost 15-18 to Northwestern as 20-point dogs and 10-14 at Michigan State as 24-point dogs. 

We saw last year just how underrated this team was down the stretch as Rutgers went 5-0 ATS in its final five games overall while covering against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State.  Four of those five games were competitive and decided by two touchdowns or less, which is impressive against that gauntlet. 

I remember taking Rutgers in their opener last year and they rolled to a 35-7 victory as nearly identical 16-point favorites against Texas State.  UMass is a team that is similar to Texas State talent wise as the Bobcats were one of the worst teams in the country, and this year the Minutemen are the worst team in the country according to Phil Steele, and I certainly agree. 

UMass only returns eight starters this season and is the single least-experienced team in the country this year.  They went 4-8 last season and head coach Mark Whipple stepped down.  In comes Walt Bell, who was the offensive coordinator at Florida State last year in one of the worst offensive seasons in history for the Seminoles.  Whipple certainly left the cupboard very bare here at UMass. 

The Minutemen will certainly have one of the worst defenses in the country, so even a team like Rutgers should be able to score at will on them.  The Minutemen gave up 42.9 points and 485 yards per game last year.  Now they return just three starters on defense and are extremely inexperienced.  They lose their leader in Bryton Barr (147 tackles, 10.5 TFL), who had 75 more tackles than their next leading returning tackler.  This defense could be even worse in 2019. 

The losses are massive on offense as well.  Only five starters return, and they lose all of their top playmakers. UMass loses QB Andrew Ford, who was their starter before going down with injury.  They also lost QB Ross Comes, who had a 14-to-3 TD/INT ratio in Ford’s absence.  Also gone is leading rusher Marquise Young as their top returning RB rushed for only 139 yards last year.  And last but certainly not least, stud WR Andy Isabella (102 receptions, 1,698 yards, 13 TD last year) is now in the NFL. 

Rutgers has had a solid defense the last two years, but it’s the offense that has held them back.  They were -14 in turnovers last year and gave the ball away too much.  But with eight starters back on offense, this can only be one of the most improved units in the country.  Ash hasn’t named a starting QB yet, but his team knows who it will be, and that’s all that matters.  Sophomore Artur Sitkowski had a forgettable freshman campaign with 18 interceptions.  So Texas Tech transfer McClane Carter and BC transfer Johnny Langan are now here to push him.  Whoever is under center will have no problem moving the ball against his soft UMass defense. 

Ash has been a double-digit favorite twice the last two years.  He has covered in those games by an average of 17.5 points per game.  UMass is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games during the first two weeks of a season.  The Minutemen are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Independents.  Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Rutgers Friday. 

20* CFB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -2 

The Tulane Green Wave made their first bowl games since 2013 last year and capitalized with a 41-24 win over Louisiana in the Cure Bowl.  Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated coaches in the country with what he is doing down in New Orleans. 

Fritz has gone from 4 to 5 to 7 wins in his first three seasons on the job.  And now he enters Year 4 with his best team yet.  And I love the fact that Fritz realizes this triple-option offense will only carry him so far, so he brought in a new coordinator this year in Will Hall.  He comes over from Memphis and will be running an up-tempo offense that Florida International will not be prepared for. 

The Green Wave return all of their best playmakers on offense for Hall to work with.  QB Justin McMillian is back and is a dual-threat guy.  The top two rushers are back in Darius Bradwell (1,134 yards, 11 TD) and Corey Dauphine (785 yards, 7 TD), as is leading receiver Darnell Mooney (48 receptions, 993 yards, 8 TD). 

I’m also very excited about a defense that returns eight starters and will be the best stop unit that Fritz has had at Tulane.  The Green Wave only had five starters back last year and allowed a respectable 27.5 points per game.  They are loaded up front along the defensive line with all of their starters back, including Patrick Johnson (49 tackles, 10.5 sacks). 

Florida International has exceeded expectations in the first two seasons under Butch Davis.  They have gone 8-5 and 9-4 the last two years and have come very close to winning a C-USA title.  And they have 16 starters back this year and will be solid again, but I just think they’re getting too much respect early in the season. 

FIU feasted on an easy schedule last year as their schedule ranked 123rd in the country.  Tulane played the 79th toughest schedule.  Conference USA in general is one of the weakest conferences in the country, while the AAC is one of the most underrated, which teams like UCF and Cincinnati have proven in recent years.   

FIU only beat two teams that made bowl games last year in Middle Tennessee and Toledo, and they won both those games by a field goal.  Five of Tulane’s six losses last year came against both teams, and three of them were by a touchdown or less.  Four of them were on the road, while the other two at home came in overtime to Wake Forest and by 4 to SMU. 

I think the biggest matchup here that is going to go in our favor is FIU’s inexperienced offensive line up against Tulane’s dominant defensive line, which is the best in the AAC.  FIU only gave up 8 sacks last year, while Tulane had 41 sacks as a team.  But FIU loses three starters along the offensive line and will be tested like they haven’t been yet. 

Not only will the Green Wave control the line of scrimmage on defense, they’ll also control it on offense.  They rushed for 218 yards per game and 4.7 per carry last season and will be potent on the ground again.  FIU’s weakness last year was up front as they allowed 192 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. 

Tulane is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 17.0 points per game in this spot.  Fritz is 6-0 ATS in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of Tulane.  The Green Wave are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. C-USA opponents, while the Golden Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. AAC foes.  Bet Tulane Thursday.

20* Arizona/Hawaii 2019 CFB Season Opener on Hawaii +11 

It’s an exciting time of year with college football starting back up on August 24th.  And I’m expecting we could have a huge upset right out of the gates here as Hawaii is more than capable of hanging toe-to-toe with Arizona in the opener.  I’ll take the whopping 11 points for some insurance, though. 

Hawaii OVER 5.5 is one of my favorite season win total bets this year.  There’s several reasons why I’m high on this team.  They return a whopping 18 starters in Year 4 under head coach Nick Rolovic, and this is easily his best team yet.  That’s saying a lot after the Rainbow Warriors went 8-6 last season. 

QB Cole McDonald was one of the best quarterbacks in the country that not many people heard about.  He threw for 3,875 yards with a 36-to-10 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 359 yards and four scores.  Most impressively, he put up those numbers despite missing two starts, and played through a torn ligament in his knee for much of the year. 

Now McDonald is back healthy and heading an offense that returns nine starters after returning just three last year.  This is a much more veteran unit that returns all 5 O-Line starters and adds in an Arizona transfer and two JUCO’s who redshirted last year.  McDonald has two stud receivers in Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward, who combined for 130 receptions, 1,835 yards and 18 touchdowns last year. 

Defensively the Rainbow Warriors should be greatly improved.  They gave up 35.1 points and 440 yards per game last season with just five returning starters.  Now they have nine starters back on defense, including each of their top three tacklers from a year ago.  With how good the offense is going to be, the defense just needs to be average for this team to win its share of games. 

Arizona UNDER 6.5 is one of my favorite win total bets as well, so this is an easy choice here.  The Wildcats went just 5-7 in Kevin Sumlin’s first season on the job after he was oustered from Texas A&M.  Sumlin has always been able to recruit decently, but he’s just obviously not a very good head coach. 

You’re going to hear a lot about Arizona QB Khalil Tate once again this season.  He was among the Heisman favorites last year, but injuries hampered him last year and he hardly used his dual-threat ability, only rushing for 224 yards and two touchdowns.  He had to become a pocket passer, which he’s clearly not as he completed just 56.3% of his passes last year.  I think he’s one of the most overrated players in college football, and he’ll once again be protected by the play calling because he means to much to their team, so he won’t run that much. 

Making matters worse for Tate is that each of his top four receivers from last year are now gone.  The Wildcats are expected to start a pair of freshmen at receiver, and chemistry and communication will be an issue in Game 1.  I think their offense will be fine, but it’s no more potent than what Hawaii will put on the field with McDonald and company. 

Defensively, the Wildcats are no better than Hawaii, either.  They gave up 32.6 points per game and 432 yards per game last season despite having eight returning starters.  They also have eight starters back this season on D, so the improvements can’t be great.  This is one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12 and the talent level just isn’t there to make much progress. 

Last year, Arizona lost at home to BYU 23-28 as 10-point favorites.  They also lost at Houston 18-45 as 3-point underdogs.  The year before they lost at home to Houston 16-19.  And the year before that, they lost at home to BYU 16-18.  They have obviously been vulnerable early in the season in non-conference play, and I think that’s the case here against a Hawaii team that is one of the most underrated in the country. 

Last year, Hawaii went 4-1 in non-conference play en route to a 6-1 start.  They upset Colorado State as 16-point road dogs, upset Navy as 11-point home dogs, and beat both Rice and Duquesne handily.  Their only loss in the non-conference was at Army 21-28, and that was a terrible body clock game that started at 9:00 AM for them.  They hung right with an Army team for four quarters that won a school-record 11 games last year. 

Hawaii is notoriously underrated to start each season, going 26-11 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.  Arizona is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Wildcats are just 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in all games played away from home the last three years.  Arizona is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 true road games.  The Rainbow Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Hawaii Saturday. 

20* Alabama/Clemson National Championship No-Brainer on Alabama ML -200 

One of the best-kept secrets is betting favorites on the money line in Championship-type games.  Whether it be the Super Bowl or the National Championship of college football, you almost always get a cheaper price on the favorite on the money line than it should be. 

That’s because with so much action on these standalone games, there’s a ton of liability for sports books on the underdog on the money line.  They take way more bets on the dog on the money line than they would in any regular game.  So they have to adjust their money line prices so they don’t get killed if the underdog wins the game outright. 

A typical 5.5-point favorite is around -240 on the money line.  So we are basically getting 40 cents of value here taking Alabama on the money line.  I don’t expect this to be a blowout, but I do expect Alabama to win, so I’m more than willing to lay the -200 on Alabama on the money line just to win the game.  I think this is the best bet you can make in the National Championship Game. 

Alabama certainly wants revenge from losing a heartbreaker on the final play of the game to Clemson a few years ago.  And they are also motivated to cement themselves as arguably the greatest team in college football history.  They have come this far in the face of all the hype from the media, remaining grounded.  And I expect them to complete their mission and win this game Monday night. 

This is certainly the best offense the Crimson Tide have ever assembled under Nick Saban, which is why they can stake their claim as the greatest ever.  They are scoring 47.7 points per game and averaging 527.6 yards per game.  What makes that so remarkable is that they’ve been able to rest their starters in the second half of most of their games this season.  And they once again have an elite defense that yields just 16.2 points per game. 

I think the fact that Alabama didn’t cover the 14-point spread against Oklahoma last week also has them undervalued.  They stormed out to a 31-10 halftime lead and simply took their foot off the gas.  Oklahoma got 24 points in garbage time in the second half with the game already decided.  Too Tagovailoa showed zero ill-effects of the ankle injury, completing 24-of-27 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns. 

Conversely, I think Clemson is getting way too much respect due to its 30-3 win over Notre Dame.  Clearly, the Fighting Irish played an easy schedule this season and weren’t one of the four best teams in the country.  But it’s worth noting the Fighting Irish had their chances to put up points.  In fact, Notre Dame had six drives that went into Clemson territory, and they came away with just 3 points on those six drives.  That’s pretty hard to do. 

Speaking of easy schedules, Clemson played a very easy schedule in the ACC, which was way down this season.  They have only faced three teams in the Top 30 and one team in the Top 10.  Meanwhile, Alabama has faced seven teams that rank in the Top 30 and three teams that rank in the Top 10.  The’ve obviously beaten all seven.  The Crimson Tide are way more battle-tested than the Tigers are coming into this game. 

Nick Saban is 15-1 (+14 units) against the money line after failing to cover three of his last four games as the coach of Alabama.  The Crimson Tide will cement themselves as arguably the greatest team in college football history with a win over Clemson.  Bet Alabama on the Money Line Monday. 

20* Texas/Georgia Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Texas +14 

This game is all about motivation.  The Texas Longhorns are happy to be here.  Whether or not they beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, they most likely would have been penciled into the Sugar Bowl.  So they aren’t disappointed at all with being in this bowl game. 

Conversely, Georgia played in the National Championship Game last year against Alabama.  They lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship after blowing a double-digit lead to Jalen Hurts, their second blown double-digit lead in as many tries against the Crimson Tide.  That loss cost them a spot in the four-team playoff.  The Bulldogs aren’t happy at all to be playing in the Sugar Bowl.  It was playoffs or bust for them. 

The motivational edge will help Texas make up for their talent edge that clearly goes to Georgia in this one.  Fortunately for us, talent doesn’t always win out in these bowl games.  And we’re getting two touchdowns here with the more motivated team.  I’ll take my chances almost every time. 

I also like backing head coach Tom Herman as an underdog.  Herman is 12-2 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached between Houston and Texas.  He has won most of those games outright, and his teams are outscoring the opposition by 6.0 points per game in these spots.  He certainly knows how to get his team motivated when they are being counted out, which is exactly what he’s doing leading into the Sugar Bowl as nobody outside the locker room is giving them a chance to beat Georgia. 

Herman is also 10-1 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached.  Texas does a good job of stopping the run, holding opponents to 136 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry this season.  The Longhorns are holding their opponents to 44 rushing yards per game and 0.8 per carry less than their season averages this year.  That will help them slow down a Georgia offense that averages 252 rushing yards per game and 6.1 per carry this season. 

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Georgia) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games, a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games are 61-27 (69.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Texas Tuesday. 

20* Missouri/Oklahoma State Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma State +8 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Oklahoma State and ’sell high’ on Missouri in the Liberty Bowl.  The Tigers are getting too much respect with how they finished the season, while the Cowboys are getting zero respect with how they finished the year.  That has created some line value here on the Cowboys catching more than a touchdown to the Tigers in this matchup of old Big 12 rivals. 

Oklahoma State finished the season 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in its last seven games overall.  But four of those losses came by 7 points or less, and four of them were on the road.  That includes their 47-48 loss at Oklahoma as 21.5-point dogs which showed they could play with anyone.  They also beat West Virginia and Texas at home, two of the best teams in the Big 12. 

Missouri is getting respect due to its 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS finish to the season.  But two of the wins came against bad Tennessee and Arkansas teams who didn’t make a bowl.  They only beat Vanderbilt by 5 as 14.5-point favorites, and Vanderbilt barely made a bowl and went on to lose to Baylor in their bowl game.  The win over Florida looks impressive, but not when you consider that it was a huge hangover spot for the Gators off their loss to Georgia the previous week that cost them the SEC East title. 

The Cowboys will never be out of this game due to an offense that ranks 10th national in yards per game (500.2) and 14th in scoring (38.4).  QB Taylor Cornelius threw for 3,837 yards with a 28-to-11 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 385 yards and 10 scores.  I realize leading rusher Justice Hill (930 yards, 9 TD, 5.9/carry) is out, but his absence is being overblown.  Backup Chuba Hubbard (595 yards, 6 TD, 5.6/carry) isn’t much of a downgrade.  He’s actually an upgrade in the passing game over Hill, averaging 10.1 yards per reception on his 19 receptions compared to 5.2 on 13 for Hill. 

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine December games.  Missouri is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  Bet Oklahoma State Monday. 

15* Oklahoma/Alabama Orange Bowl Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 77.5 

Alabama has one of the best defenses in the country.  The Crimson Tide only give up 14.8 points and 295.4 yards per game on the season.  And consistently, they’ve been up enough to put their backups in in the second half.  When one team has a defense this good, and the total is 77.5, there’s value with the UNDER. 

I know Oklahoma doesn’t have a great defense.  But they consistently face better offenses when playing in the Big 12.  The Sooners give up 32.4 points and 448.1 yards per game on the season.  But even factoring in their bad defense, when you combine what they give up on average to Alabama, you get 47.2 points per game.  That’s still more than 30 points less than this posted total of 77.5.  There’s still value with the UNDER. 

I realize both Alabama and Oklahoma have elite offenses.  In fact, these are two of the best offenses in the country.  And if both defenses only had a week to prepare for these offenses, it would favor the over.  But it favors the under since both teams have had basically one entire month to prepare for one another.  Oklahoma won’t be surprising Alabama’s defense, and Alabama won’t be surprising Oklahoma’s defense. 

I think this number is inflated largely due to the shootout between Georgia and Oklahoma last year in the first game of the four-team playoff.  But you can bet Nick Saban is going to come up with ways to slow down Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray and company.  And Oklahoma’s defense will be able to hold Alabama’s offense in check, especially with QB Too Tagovailoa hampered with an ankle injury. 

I expect Alabama’s strategy to be to slow this game down with its running game.  The Crimson Tide will be trying to control the time of possession with their running game.  They rush for 202 yards per game and can certainly move the chains with heir running game and keep Murray and company off the field.  That’s their best strategy to win this game, and I expect Saban to deploy this strategy.  They won’t be trying to simply outscoring Oklahoma in a shootout. 

Oklahoma is 19-4 UNDER in its last 23 December games.  Alabama sis 10-2 UNDER in tis last 12 games following three or more consecutive overs.  Alabama is 43-21 UNDER in its last 64 games vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Sooners last nine vs. SEC opponents.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Sooners last 11 bowl games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Notre Dame/Clemson Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame +14 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are better than they get credit for.  They are getting disrespected despite being 12-0 this season.  Their schedule looked very tough coming into the season, but turned out to be less difficult than expected.  But the same can be said for Clemson, which beat up on a weak ACC this year. 

I think Notre Dame feels disrespected being not only underdogs, but double-digit dogs in this matchup.  Everyone thinks back to when they lost to Alabama in the National Championship a few years ago.  But that was a different team, and this one is way better on offense than that version of Notre Dame was.  This Fighting Irish team has a legit chance to win the national title, or at least beat Clemson in the first round of the four-team playoff.  Head coach Brian Kelly will certainly be playing the underdog card leading up to this game. 

While Notre Dame opened the season overvalued with Brandon Wimbush at quarterback, they transitioned into a great offensive team with a still elite defense once Ian Book took over.  Book is completing 70.4% of his passes for 2,468 yards with a 19-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.8 per attempt.  And he’s not exactly a stagnant QB who only stays in the pocket.  Book has rushed for 250 yards and four scores on 78 attempts this year.  He can run the ball if he needs to. 

Clemson will be without three suspended players.  One of those is a first-round draft pick in DT Dexter Lawrence, and the other are role players in TE Braden Galloway and OL Zach Geilla.  The loss of Lawrence is a big one as he’s one of the best players in the country. 

Only five times in college football history has an undefeated team played another undefeated team and been a 7-point plus underdog.  Well, Notre Dame is that team catching 7 or more points.  In fact, the Fighting Irish are catching 14 points or less in most spots.  The team catching 7 or more points is not only a perfect 5-0 ATS, but also a perfect 5-0 SU in this situation.  The dog has won straight up every time. 

Also, favorites in the last 16 Clemson bowl games have gone 4-12 SU & 2-14 ATS.  Clemson is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after covering the spread in six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Notre Dame is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

Note: I know this line shows Notre Dame +14 with extra juice.  I personally have a bet on Notre Dame +13.  And I think they're worth a bet all the way down to +10.

20* Florida/Michigan Peach Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida +7 

Dan Mullen has already put Florida on the map in his first season in Gainesville.  He took over a team that went 4-7 last year and turned the Gators into a 9-3 team and SEC contenders.  And now the Gators will relish this opportunity to face Michigan in the Peach Bowl after missing out on a bowl game last year. 

Michigan won’t be so happy to be here.  The Wolverines were in prime position to make the four-team playoff.  But they once again lost to Urban Meyer and Ohio State 62-39 in their season finale.  That loss cost them the Big Ten title and a spot in the four-team playoff.  I just don’t see Michigan being able to get back up off the mat after such a demoralizing defeat. 

The same thing happened last year when Michigan went on to lose to South Carolina as 8-point favorites in the Outback Bowl.  They also lost to Florida State as 7-point favorites in the 2016 Orange Bowl.  Jim Harbaugh just hasn’t done a very good job in big games as the coach of Michigan. 

Mullen did a great job improving this Florida offense to 34.5 PPG this season.  And the Gators have yet another elite defense just as they do every year, giving up 20.4 PPG.  The Wolverines also have an elite defense, but they have taken a hit with several players sitting out this game. 

They will be without starting DE Rashan Gary, starting LB and Big Ten DPOY Devin Bush and leading rusher Karan Higdon.  Florida expects to have everyone available for this bowl game.  I think the Gators could have beaten the Wolverines at full strength, let alone without 3 of their best players. 

Adding to Florida’s motivation is the fact that they’ve never beaten Michigan, going 0-3 in the all-time series.  Two of those losses have come the past two seasons as they lost 41-7 in the 2016 Citrus Bowl and 33-17 in the 2017 season opener in Arlington.  The Gators want revenge, while the Wolverines could be getting a case of ‘Florida fatigue’ having just beaten this team twice in the past two seasons. 

Mullen is 9-0 ATS off two straight non-conference games in all games he has coached.  Michigan is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Michigan) - off a road loss to a conference opponent, a top-level team that wins 80% or more of its games playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Florida Saturday. 

15* Iowa State/Washington State Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Iowa State +3 

The Iowa State Cyclones have only been to 13 bowl games in school history.  They will be going for back-to-back bowl wins for the first time in program history.  They will also be going for their 9th win of the season, which would tie a school record set back in 2000.  Prior to that season they hadn’t reached even eight wins since 1978.  It’s safe to say the Cyclones are happy to be here, and they have every reason to be highly motivated for a win. 

The job Matt Campbell is doing at Iowa State is remarkable.  He is only in his third season and already has this team to two bowl games and a combined 16-9 record over the past two seasons.  After a 1-3 start against a brutal schedule, the Cyclones reeled off five straight wins.  They got into Big 12 title contention before a loss to Texas.  But they won their final two games and now have a chance to make history. 

The run started when freshman Brock Purdy took over at quarterback.  He is completing 66.3% of his passes with a 16-to-5 TD/INT ratio and averaging 10 yards per attempt.  He has also added a dual threat to the offense with 262 rushing yards and three scores.  He has one of the best backs in the country to hand the ball off to in David Montgomery, who has put together back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.  Purdy also has a matchup nightmare to throw the ball to in Hakeem Butler, who has 1,126 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns while season while averaging 22.1 yards per reception. 

While the Iowa State offense has made big strides this season, it’s the defense that has allowed them to win so many games over the past few seasons.  The Cyclones have the second-best defense in the Big 12 this year.  They are giving up just 22.5 points and 351 yards per game this season.  They are holding opponents to 8.5 points and 63 yards per game less than their season averages.  It’s a defense that is built to stop the Big 12 offenses, which makes this a great matchup against Washington State’s pass-happy attack that belongs in the Big 12. 

I think Washington State actually had to be disappointed to be in the Alamo Bowl.  The Cougars were ranked in the Top 10 down the stretch and actually had an outside shot to make the four-team playoff.  But they once again lost to Washington in the Apple Cup in their season finale, so instead of playing the Pac-12 Championship and possibly the Rose Bowl at worse, they now have to try and get back up off the mat to play Iowa State in the Alamo Bowl. 

Matt Campbell is 3-1 in all bowl games dating back to his time at Toledo.  Mike Leach is just 1-3 in bowl games as the coach of Washington State.  They lost handily 17-42 to Michigan State last year in the Holiday Bowl.  I think Leach will have his hands full getting these Cougars motivated to play this game after what happened against Washington in the Apple Cup. 

Iowa State played a much tougher schedule than Washington State this season.  Iowa State played the 29th-toughest schedule, while Washington State played the 53rd.  And Pac-12 teams have been terrible in bowl games in recent seasons.  In fact, the Pac-12 is just 3-13 SU & 2-14 ATS in their last 16 bowl games over the past few seasons.  It’s a conference that was way down this season, which is why I question how good all these Pac-12 teams are in these bowl games. 

Campbell is 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of Iowa State.  Campbell is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 75% of their games on the season as the coach of Iowa State.  Campbell is 12-2 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of the Cyclones.  Leach is 2-11 ATS after having won eight or more of his past 10 games in all games as a head coach.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  Take Iowa State Friday. 

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse PK 

It’s safe to say the Syracuse Orange are happy to be in a bowl game.  Head coach Dino Babers delivered in a big way in his third season on the job.  The Orange went from 4-8 last year to 9-3 this year and a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 2001.  Two of their losses came to playoff teams in Clemson and Notre Dame, and they nearly upset Clemson on the road.  They will be playing in their first bowl game since 2013 as well. 

I certainly question West Virginia’s motivation.  The Mountaineers had a chance to play in the Big 12 Championship in their season finale against Oklahoma.  But they lost a 56-59 heartbreaker to the Sooners, and now they have to watch Oklahoma go on to the four-team playoff, while they’re stuck in the Camping World Bowl.  They won’t be motivated at all for this game. 

That’s especially the case now that Will Grier has decided to skip this bowl game and get ready for the NFL.  Also out is left tackle Yodny Cajuste, who is also an NFL prospect.  You don’t simply replace a QB the caliber of Grier.  He has completed 67% of his passes for 3,864 yards with a 37-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season while averaging 9.7 yards per attempt.   

Backup QB Jack Allison has only attempted 10 passes all season, and he’ll get the start Friday.  The sophomore won’t have the services of star receiver Gary Jennings Jr, either.  Jennings leads the Mountaineers in receiving yards (917) to go along with 54 receptions and 13 touchdowns.  He is sitting out with an ankle injury. 

The quarterback on the other sideline is a good one.  Syracuse’s Eric Dungey played in all 12 games for the first time in his career this season, though he still had some injury issues but gutted it out.  He completed 59.8% of his passes for 2,565 yards with a 17-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  He is also the team’s second-leading rushing with 732 yards and 15 scores on the ground.  He has accounted for 32 total touchdowns and will be a big reason why the Orange win this game. 

While the Syracuse offense is explosive in averaging 40.7 points and 468 yards per game, it’s the defense that has made the biggest improvement.  The Orange are allowing a respectable 27.7 points per game this season.  They are right on par with WVU defensively as the Mountaineers yield 26.5 points per game.  And there’s no question the Orange have the advantage on offense now with Grier, Cajuste and Jennings out. 

Dana Holgorsen is 6-15 ATS with two or more weeks to prepare as the coach of West Virginia.  Holgorsen is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in his last five bowl games with their only win coming by a single point 43-42 over Arizona State in 2015.  They lost by 16 to Utah in 2017, by 17 to Miami in 2016, by 8 to Texas A&M in 2014 and by 24 to Syracuse in 2012.  The Mountaineers have rarely even been competitive in bowl games under Holgorsen.  In fact, dating back further, West Virginia is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 bowl games. 

West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven December bowl games.  The Mountaineers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games played on a neutral field.  West Virginia is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 vs. ACC opponents.  The Orange are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Syracuse) - off a double-digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-9 (74.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Syracuse Friday.

20* Houston/Army Armed Forces Bowl No-Brainer on Army -4.5 

A military team in a military bowl that’s happy to be here.  Sign me up.  Army has already had a phenomenal season, but there’s still work to be done.  The Black Knights can earn a school-record 11th win with a victory over Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl.  They will be max motivated to accomplish that feat. 

Houston is a team that has all kinds of issues heading into this game.  They lost starting QB D’Eriq King in their 11th game of the season.  King is a huge loss as he has a 36-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 674 yards and 14 scores this season.  Backup Clayton Tune is only completing 44.7% of his 85 passes and is a massive downgrade as he’s not a dual-threat like King was. 

The Cougars are also missing four defensive linemen on their two-deep, including DT Ed Oliver, who will be a Top 10 pick in the NFL Draft.  These defensive line injuries will make it extremely difficult for them to stop Army’s rushing attack.  In fact, Houston has the worst defense of all the bowl teams, giving up 489 yards per game.  And they were awful stopping the run down the stretch, giving up a whopping 278.2 rushing yards per game in their last six games, including 300-plus three times. 

Well, Army is the second-best rushing team in the country at 296 yards per game on the ground.  And QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. is actually a threat to throw it this year as he’s averaging 10.6 yards per attempt with six touchdown passes.  Army is also 2nd in the country in time of possession (38:51), while Houston is 129th in time of possession (25:04).  The Black Knights will wear down this Houston defense and pull away in the second half. 

I have a hard time believing Houston wants to be here.  They had a chance to win their division and play for the AAC title, but lost in the season finale 31-52 at Memphis.  They gave up 610 total yards, including 401 on the ground in that loss.  And now they have to go up against a team in Army that is going to chop block them the whole game.  No team can be too excited to face the triple-option, an offense designed to punch you in the mouth.  Houston players will quit early in this game. 

One hidden factor here is that Army recruits as well as almost anyone in the state of Texas.  The Black Knights actually have 23 players from Texas on their roster.  And this game will be played in Forth Worth, Texas, so they are using this opportunity as an excellent recruiting tool.   

Military teams are 33-13 ATS in their last 46 bowl games.  Military teams are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 bowl games when facing a team that wins 60% or more of their games.  The Black Knights are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  They’ll cap off a record-setting season with their 11th victory Saturday.  Bet Army in the Armed Forces Bowl.

15* Wake Forest/Memphis CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +3.5 

I think this this is a case where one team wants to be here, and one team doesn’t in the Birmingham Bowl between Wake Forest and Memphis.  Wake Forest is the team that wants to be here.  That was evidenced by the way they finished the season just to get into a bowl game. 

The Demon Deacons needed to pull off two huge upsets on the road in their final three games just to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  They beat NC State 27-23 as 18.5-point road underdogs.  Then they blasted Duke 59-7 as 9-point road dogs in their season finale.  You would be hard-pressed to find two better wins in the ACC than those two for the Demon Deacons. 

Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson is doing a tremendous job here with the Demon Deacons in making them relevant again.  And Clawson is 2-0 in bowl games at Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons upset Temple as 12-point dogs in 2016.  They also beat Texas A&M in a 55-52 thriller as 3-point favorites last year.  They are certainly happy to be here with how hard they had to fight to get here, and I think that will show on the field Saturday. 

QB Jamie Newman has been much more effective than Sam Hartman was before him, and he thrived once he was given the starting job after Hartman suffered a season-ending injury.  Newman is completing 61.4% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.  Hartman is completing 55.3% and 6.8 per attempt.  Newman has also been the better runner with 3.8 yards per carry compared to 2.6 for Hartman, and both have a significant amount of carries, so Newman being more of a dual-threat is definitely a factor. 

Memphis does not want to be here.  The Tigers are still reeling from blowing an 18-point halftime lead against UCF in the C-USA title game.  They scored 38 points in the first half, but were held to just 3 points after intermission and completely imploded.  It was the second blown lead against UCF this season in two losses to the Knights.  Now they have to watch UCF go play LSU in the Fiesta Bowl, while they’re stuck in the Birmingham Bowl and have to face a 6-6 Wake Forest team. 

Memphis will be without its best player in this game in RB Darrell Henderson, who is one of the best running backs in the country.  He is sitting this game out to get ready for the NFL Draft, where he should be one of the first RB’s taken.  Henderson has rushed for 1,9-9 yards and 22 touchdowns while averaging a ridiculous 8.9 yards per carry this season.  You just don’t replace that type of production. 

The Tigers have not fared well in bowl gams over the past three seasons, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.  They lost by 21 to Auburn as 3-point dogs in 2015, by 20 to Western Kentucky as 7-point dogs in 2016, and were upset by Iowa State as 3-point favorites on their home field last year.   

Memphis has played the 103rd-ranked schedule in the country, while Wake Forest has played the 53rd-toughest schedule.  That’s a big difference in strength of schedule, and facing a team like Memphis will be a step down in class for Wake Forest compared to what they’re used to seeing in ACC action. 

Teams that clinch a bowl game in their final game of the season have gone 41-21 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  This is a great trend and it just goes to show that teams that had to fight to make a bowl in their final game are happy to be there and usually play well in their bowl game.  And Memphis lost their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator prior to the bowl game, so they won’t be as well prepared as they normally would be going into a football game. 

Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 525 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games, while the Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.  Take Wake Forest Saturday. 

15* Marshall/USF Gasparilla Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Marshall -2.5 

South Florida was a complete fraud during its 7-0 start this season.  They had narrow single-digit wins over East Carolina (20-13) as 19-point home favorites, Tulsa (25-24) as 10-point road favorites and UConn (38-30) as 33.5-point home favorites.  Looking back, ECU, Tulsa and UConn were awful, and all three had a shot to beat them. 

Then reality set in down the stretch.  South Florida went 0-5 in its final five games with all five losses coming by double-digits.  The schedule got tougher, and the Bulls were completely exposed.  And now they are going to have to try and get back up off the mat for their bowl game, and I’m not seeing it.  Especially since it’s not a destination bowl game as they will be playing on their home field at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.  Fans won’t be that excited to watch a team that closed the season on a five-game losing streak. 

Marshall is happy to be here.  The Thundering Herd put together an impressive 8-4 season with two of their losses coming to ACC opponents in NC State and Virginia Tech.  And the loss to Virginia Tech in the finale has them undervalued.  The Hokies needed that win to make a bowl game, and it was a rescheduled game in the final week.  The Thundering Herd were already going to a bowl game and didn’t need a win. 

Marshall head coach Doc Holliday certainly knows how to prepare his teams for bowl games.  Indeed, Holiday is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in his five bowl games at Marshall.  Not only are the Thundering Herd winning, then are dominating their opposition in these bowl games.  They are winning by an average of 11.8 points per game in those five games. 

USF QB Blake Barnett is banged up with an ankle injury.  He will play, but he could be hampered and not as big of a rushing threat.  That’s big because he has rushed for eight scores this year.  Barnett is a horrible passer with an 11-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  And if he gets hurt, both of the backups are completing less than 50% of their passes in their combined 73 attempts this season. 

South Florida’s offense will struggle to move the football on what is a very good Marshall defense.  The Thundering Herd are holding their opponents to just 22.0 points and 335.6 yards per game.  They are holding their opponents to 5.2 points, 41 yards and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages.  Conversely, the Thundering Herd should be able to move the football at will against a USF defense that is yielding 31.5 points and 442.2 yards per game. 

South Florida is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games coming in.  Marshall is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 bowl games, including the 5-0 ATS in Holliday’s tenure as stated before.  The Thundering Herd are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games.  The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. C-USA opponents.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Marshall Thursday. 

15* Ohio/SDSU Frisco Bowl ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State +3 

I think San Diego State comes into the bowl season undervalued due to its 0-3 finish to the season.  That followed a 7-2 start as this was one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country up to that point.  But the poor finish can easily be explained. 

Let’s go back to the UNLV loss which started the streak.  San Diego State saw that Fresno State had lost to Boise State the previous night, meaning that they could afford a loss to UNLV and still have a shot to win their division.  And they promptly lost 24-27 as 24-point favorites.  Then everything was on the line the next week against Fresno State, and they lost 14-23.  And it was then an obvious hangover spot the next week in the 30-31 loss to Hawaii. 

There’s no question that head coach Rocky Long and his players want to get that sour taste out of their mouths.  They’ll be ‘all in’ for this bowl game against Ohio, and I look for them to dominate from start to finish.  MAC teams have been awful in bowl games over the past several season, and that will continue this season.  Ohio coach Frank Solich is just 5-9 SU all-time in bowl games, and 3-6 at Ohio. 

While Ohio has a very good offense, they have a weak defense that gives up 26.7 points, 399 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the season.  Compare that to San Diego State, which gives up just 21.7 points, 327 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play, and we are clearly backing the superior defense. 

San Diego State’s offense was held back by injuries all season.  That made them a bad bet as big favorites, which they were consistently.  But this offense is as healthy as it has been all year, and they are healthy as a team as a whole with only two players on the injury list heading into this bowl game.  They key is having QB Christian Chapman and his 8.9 yards per attempt and RB Juwan Washington and his 870 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns back healthy.  These are the two leaders of this offense and they’ll be looking to go out with a bang. 

And this is a great matchup for the Aztecs’ defense.  The strength of the Ohio offense is their running game, which produces 262 rushing yards per game and 6.1 per carry.  Well, the Aztecs have the fourth-best rushing defense in the country.  They give up just 94 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry this season.  They have the ability to make Ohio one-dimensional, and the Bobcats just aren’t very good when they have to throw the football. 

And keep in mind San Diego State is usually laying points, but here they are getting points, and it all stems back to that misleading poor finish to the season.  As a dog this season, the Aztecs have stepped up.  They beat Arizona State outright as 5.5-point dogs.  They went into Boise State and won outright as 13-point dogs.  And they covered as 10-point dogs at Fresno State. 

Ohio is 1-10 ATS in road games off three consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  The Aztecs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games following a loss by 3 points or less.  Rocky Long is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game as the coach of San Diego State.  The Bobcats are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a win by more than 20 points.  

The MAC is 6-24 SU in bowl games over the last six years, including 1-12 SU the last three years.  San Diego State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.  Betting on teams in bowl games off a SU loss as a favorite against a team that is coming in off back-to-back wins are 44-14 ATS since 1981.  Bet San Diego State Wednesday.