Sports Picks & Predictions

15* Eastern Michigan/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Eastern Michigan +12 

This is a very bad spot for the San Diego State Aztecs.  They are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now after their upset win over Arizona State last week.  But it was a Sun Devils team in a flat spot off their own upset win over Michigan State the week prior.  And now SDSU won’t be able to help but look ahead to their huge showdown with Boise State on deck.  This is the classic sandwich game, and I expect the Aztecs to be flatter than a pancake.  That will make it very difficult for them to cover this 12-point spread, let alone win the game. 

Eastern Michigan has flown under the radar over the past few seasons under Chris Creighton.  The Eagles made their first bowl game since 1987 in 2016 and went 7-6.  They were better than their 5-7 record showed last year.  And now they have 13 starters back this season and have already outperformed expectations. 

Eastern Michigan opened with a resounding 51-17 win over Monmouth.  Then they went on the road in Week 2 and upset Purdue 20-19 as 15-point underdogs.  Last week they were on the road again and lost to a very good Buffalo team 28-35 as 3-point dogs.  But they weren’t overmatched in that game as they actually outgained Buffalo in that contest.  I had Buffalo last week and had to sweat that one out. 

That’s the thing about this Eagles squad, they just don’t get blown out.  In fact, each of their last 10 losses have come by 12 points or less, including nine by 7 points or fewer.  And each of their last 14 losses have come by 15 points or less.  They aren’t going to be intimidated by this San Diego State squad after beating the likes of Rutgers and Purdue on the road over the past few seasons. 

Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 10-2 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.  Eastern Michigan is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +21 

South Florida is being priced like the team that went a combined 21-4 over the previous two seasons.  But that team was loaded, and Charlie Strong now has mostly his players instead of Willie Taggart’s.  And Strong has an inexperienced bunch that returned just 11 starters this season.  I have not been impressed with USF thus far, and they certainly shouldn’t be laying three touchdowns to East Carolina here Saturday. 

USF opened with an underwhelming 34-14 win over Elon as 27.5-point favorites.  Their 49-38 home win over Georgia Tech as 3.5-point dogs in Week 2 was a fluke.  They were outgained by 176 yards and gave up 602 yards to the Yellow Jackets, trailing through three quarters and needing a miracle finish to pull off the upset.  Then last week they trailed by 12 in the fourth quarter against a bad Illinois team and needed to score the final 17 points to win 24-19 as 14-point favorites. 

Scottie Montgomery is in Year 3 at East Carolina, which is when teams usually show their most improvement under a new head coach.  And I think it’s safe to say this team is Montgomery’s best yet after upsetting North Carolina 41-19 as 15-point underdogs in Week 2, covering the spread by 37 points.  They racked up 510 total yards and held the Tar Heels to 395 in a dominant effort. 

Now the Pirates have had two full weeks to prepare for South Florida after their game against Virginia Tech was cancelled last week.  Look for a big effort from them because of it.  And they have a knack for playing South Florida tough.  Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 17 points or less.  In their last two trips to USF, ECU lost by 16 but only trailed by 2 with under seven minutes left in 2016.  And they won outright 28-17 back in 2014.  I believe the Pirates will  keep this one closer than expected.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* Stanford/Oregon ABC ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -2 

This used to be a great rivalry with Stanford and Oregon trading blows every year back when Chip Kelly around.  But that’s no longer the case.  Stanford has dominated the last two meetings.  They won 52-27 on the road as 3-point favorites in 2016.  They won 49-7 at home as 9.5-point favorites last year. 

Now, Stanford is only a 2-point favorite in 2018 as oddsmakers are expecting a close game.  I’m just not seeing it.  Stanford is a legit contender to win the Pac-12.  The Cardinal have been tested already and have passed with flying colors. 

The Cardinal beat San Diego State 31-10 as 14-point home favorites.  They shut down USC 17-3 as 4.5-point home favorites as well.  So, they have been battle-tested, and it’s clear they have an elite defense.  Offensively, star RB Bryce Love sat out last week and is now healthy and fresh for this huge game against Oregon.  He will easily have his best game of the season here. 

No team has faced an easier schedule than Oregon through the first three weeks.  They beat Bowling Green in the opener.  Then they beat Portland State, an FCS team that is 1-13 dating back to last season.  Most concerning was Oregon’s 35-22 home win over San Jose State as 42.5-point favorites last week.   

That mere 13-point win is a big concern considering San Jose State is one of the worst teams in the country. Now, the Ducks won’t be prepared to get smacked in the mouth like they will against Stanford this week due to their lack of competition up to this point.  It’s going to be a big eye-opener for them. 

This is also a big coaching mismatch with David Shaw over Mario Cristobal.  I believe Cristobal is in over his head here.  Also, Autzen Stadium isn’t what it once was back when Oregon was actually good.  Stanford is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Ducks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.   

Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in home games off a home game in all games he has coached.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Ducks are 0-7 ATS vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Oregon is 1-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Stanford is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last two seasons.  These last five trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Cardinal.  Bet Stanford Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech +14 

Many expected Oklahoma State to be down this season because they lost a ton of talent on offense.  But they have proved their doubters wrong thus far by opening 3-0.  The Missouri State and South Alabama wins were nothing to be proud of, but their 44-21 win over Boise State at home last week was certainly a statement game.  Keep in mind that Oklahoma State only outgained Boise State by 8 yards in that contest, though. 

Now, after ‘upsetting’ Boise State as 1-point underdogs, the Cowboys are back to getting respect from oddsmakers.  And I think it’s too much respect.  I still question how good this team really is.  And Boise State isn’t the program it once was under Chris Petersen.  I think the Cowboys are getting way more credit for that win than they deserve.  They’re being asked to lay two touchdowns in their Big 12 opener against Texas Tech this week. 

Texas Tech was written off after its 27-47 season-opening loss to Ole Miss.  But this team has shown some big-time resiliency the last two weeks.  They throttled Lamar 77-0, which OK it’s Lamar.  But then last week was their real impressive win against Houston 63-49.  They racked up a whopping 704 total yards, including 605 passing, against a good Houston defense. 

Clearly Texas Tech has the offensive firepower to keep up with Oklahoma State.  That has shown in recent meetings, too.  Texas Tech is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings despite going 0-4 SU.  They lost 34-41 at home as 10-point dogs in 2017, 44-45 on the road as 10.5-point dogs in 2016, 53-70 at home as 2-point dogs in 2015, and lost 35-45 on the road as 14.5-point dogs in 2014. “Last year we had our chances, so we feel like we’ve closed the gap some compared to when we first got here.” Head coach Kliff Kingsbury said. 

Kingsbury is on the hot seat and needs a signature win.  The Red Raiders have shown they are behind him 100% with their effort over the last two weeks.  And now they want some revenge after losing nine straight to the Cowboys in this series.  I think they can not only cover, but pull off the upset as well.  This is a Texas Tech team that returned 16 starters from last year, including 10 on defense.  This should be one of their best chances to actually beat Oklahoma State in recent years because of all the Cowboys lost with just 5 starters back on offense and all of their key playmakers gone from last year. 

The Red Raiders are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 September games.  Texas Tech is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Kingsbury is 8-1 ATS off two straight non-conference games as the coach of Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS off a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points over the last three seasons. 

Plays on road teams (Texas Tech) with an excellent offense that averages 6.2 or more yards per play against a team with a defense that allows 4.2 or fewer yards per play, after gaining 525 or more yards in their previous game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Louisiana Tech +21 

This is a bad spot here for the LSU Tigers.  They have overachieved thus far with two upset wins over top-10 teams in Miami and Auburn.  And after their big win at Auburn last week, this is going to be a flat spot for them hosting Louisiana Tech as 21-point favorites.  I think the Tigers are way overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start. 

We saw them fall pretty flat in Week 2 with their 31-0 win over SE Louisiana, failing to cover as 41.5-point favorites.  Their offense is still an issue as they only managed 31 points and 335 total yards against that Southern Utah squad.  And they will be hard-pressed to top those numbers here against a much better Louisiana Tech team. 

Skip Holtz is one of my favorite coached in college football.  He got has gotten Louisiana Tech to at least 9 wins in three of the past four seasons.  After a 7-6 season last year with just 11 returning starters, Holtz brought back 15 starters this season and has one of the best teams in Conference USA. 

Louisiana Tech opened its season with a. 30-26 win at South Alabama.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bulldogs outgained USA by 132 yards.  And then they beat Southern 54-17 at home in Week 2 before getting a bye last week.  So now they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for this game against LSU.  And you can tell from the press clippings that this team is hungry to beat their in-state foe. 

Tech cornerback Amik Robertson, sho said he chose the Bulldogs over the Tigers when he was recruited out of Thibodaux High School in Louisiana, call this a ‘statement game’.  “It’s a huge game, not just for me, but for everyone on the team,” Roberston said.  “I probably wasn’t the only person on my team that had interest from LSU.  LSU has passed on a lot of players on this team and they also have a point to prove.  And not just proving to LSU, but proving to Louisiana Tech that we can play with anybody.” 

Last season, the Bulldogs proved they could play with another SEC school when they led at South Carolina until the Gamecocks prevailed 17-16 on a field goal with four seconds remaining.  In fact, the Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in in their last 13 games as underdogs against Power 5 schools. 

“I’m not really proud that we lost that game, but I’m king of happy that it did happen,” Roberston said.  “Now we know what it takes - finishing at the end, make those important plays.  We had a lot of busted players toward the end, not at the beginning.  That’s why we got to go into this game and play 60 minutes of Louisiana Tech football.” 

Those are some quotes I can certainly get behind.  Not only does Louisiana Tech think they can be competitive in this game, they think they can win it.  And LSU lost outright to Troy in a similar spot last year as 20.5-point home favorites.  LSU is now 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as a 20-plus point favorites.  The Tigers just don’t have the kind of offensive firepower it takes to cover these massive spreads. 

LSU is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorites of 14.5 to 21 points.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in September home games over the last three seasons.  Holtz is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. SEC opponents. 

Plays on road underdogs (Louisiana Tech) - off a home win, with 4-plus more returning starters and their QB returning against a team with a new QB are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Oregon State +7 

Many expected Oregon State to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country this season.  After all, this was a team that was coming off a 1-11 season last year and with a new head coach in former Beaver QB Jonathan Smith.  Well, Smith is getting the most out of this team, and I believe the Braves are vastly underrated right now entering Week 4. 

Losing 31-77 at Ohio State in the opener wasn’t that bad of a loss.  And I came away impressed that they could put up 31 points on that defense.  They then beat Southern Utah 48-25 and covered as 13.5-point favorites.  And they should have beaten Nevada last week, losing 35-37 as 4-point underdogs.  But they committed three turnovers in that game and missed two field goals, including a chip shot that would have won it in the closing seconds.  They outgained Nevada by 183 yards in that contest. 

This is a talented Oregon State offense that can hang with mediocre teams like Arizona.  The Beavers are averaging 38.0 points and 527.0 yards per game.  That’s bad news for an Arizona defense that has been torched this season, giving up 34.7 points and 469 yards per game.  I don’t know how Arizona can be laying a touchdown on the road here with that defense. 

Kevin Sumlin is one of the worst coaches in college football.  He recruited great talent at Texas A&M, but could never get anything out of it after Johnny Manziel left.  And now he’s been a big disappointment at Arizona thus far.  The Wildcats are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They lost 23-28 at home to BYU as 11.5-point favorites, and were blasted 18-45 at Houston as 3.5-point dogs.  They also beat Southern Utah at home 62-31, the same team that Oregon State faced and beat handily. 

Arizona is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games, while Oregon State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Beavers are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in conference road games over the last three seasons.  The Beavers are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who commit 60 or more penalty yards per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas A&M +27 

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the defending national champs.  They are also the No. 1 team in the country.  The betting public has been all over this team in the early going, and it has paid huge dividends.  Alabama is off to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  The public is going to continue to back them this week, and I think this is finally the game where the market has over-corrected itself.  There’s value with Texas A&M as 27-point dogs in this matchup. 

I question that strength of schedule to this point for Alabama, though.  The win over Louisville doesn’t look any good now after Louisville nearly lost to Western Kentucky at home last week.  They were outplayed badly in that game and won 20-17.  And Ole Miss clearly isn’t that good, especially defensively.  A win over Arkansas State is nothing special, either.  This is a huge step up in class for Alabama this week. 

Texas A&M has already played a team the caliber of Alabama and passed with flying colors.  They only lost 26-28 at home to Clemson as 11.5-point underdogs.  And you could argue that they should have won that game.  They racked up 501 total yards against a very good Clemson defense, a defense that is probably better than this Alabama unit.  QB Kellen Mound threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against that Clemson defense. 

No team upgraded at head coach more than Texas A&M this offseason.  Kevin Sumlin could recruit talent to college station, but he didn’t know what do to with it.  And now Sumlin is struggling at Arizona.  Jimbo Fisher was a home run hire after winning a national championship at Florida State.  He is already getting the most out of this talent as Texas A&M is 3-0 ATS this season and hitting on all cylinders.  The cupboard certainly wasn’t bare as 16 starters returned from last year’s squad. 

Mond has already thrown for 824 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  This is an offense that is putting up 44.3 points, 596.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play.  The defense is also playing very well, limiting opponents to 15.0 points and 331 yards per game.  I think this team really believes they can hang with Alabama, and few teams have been as competitive against Alabama as Texas A&M over the past several years. 

Alabama and Texas A&M have played in six consecutive seasons since the Aggies joined the SEC.  Well, Alabama has only beaten Texas A&M by more than 19 points once in those six meetings.  Texas A&M only lost 19-27 at home to Alabama as 25-point dogs last year.  I think getting them as 27-point road underdogs is an absolute gift from oddsmakers this week.  Fisher will have his team ready to go Saturday. 

Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (Texas A&M) - after outgaining an opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB returning as a starter, in the first month of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Texas A&M is 9-1 ATS in the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 7-0 ATS after playing a home game over the last two years.  Texas A&M is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 September games.  Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Crimson Tide this week.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3.5 

This feels like a ‘rally the troops’ game for USC.  And that has been evident in practice this week.  Clay Helton has stated that this has been the best week of practice this season.  Players are fired up and ready to show that they aren’t as bad as their 1-2 record would suggest.  They simply need a win here. 

It’s easy to see how USC is 1-2.  After all, they were road underdogs in each of their last two games with a 3-17 loss at Stanford as 4.5-point dogs, and a 14-37 loss at Texas as 3-point dogs.  Those are two very tough places to play, so they are forgivable.  I think we are getting a discount on USC this week because the betting public wants nothing to do with them now after those two losses. 

But those two games weren’t the blowouts that they seemed.  USC was only outgained by 10 yards at Stanford and simply couldn’t capitalize on a handful of trips to the Stanford side of the 50.  And they were only outgained by 77 yards at Texas.  They actually led that game 14-3 and played well defensively.  But Texas got a special teams TD on a blocked FG return that really changed the course of that game. Also, Texas should have been called for a safety that wasn't called.  And USC was stopped on 4th-and-goal from the 1.

Washington State hasn’t played anyone.  But they’re 3-0 and getting a lot of respect now.  They beat Wyoming 41-19 but they only led 20-19 going into the 4th quarter before outscoring Wyoming 21-0 in the final period.  And Wyoming clearly isn’t very good because they were blown out 13-40 at Missouri and barely beat Wofford 17-14 at home.  Then they beat San Jose State 31-0 and Eastern Washington 59-24.  Big deal.  You won’t find many teams with easier schedules thus far than that. 

So, USC is clearly the more battle-tested team.  They will be ready for this game.  And they have an advantage playing on a short week at home not having to travel.  Plus, USC wants revenge from a 30-27 loss at Washington State last year as 4.5-point favorites.  But the Cougars only return 10 starters from that team and are one of the least-experienced teams in the country. 

USC is now a perfect 14-0 straight up at home over the last three seasons.  In fact, Clay Helton is 17-0 SU at home as the coach of USC.  They have a better home-field advantage than they get credit.  I think after two tough road tests, freshman QB JT Daniels will have his coming out party here in front of his home fans against a suspect Washington State defense.  The Trojans will be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one.  Bet USC Friday. 

15* Tulsa/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +7 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a vastly improved team this season over a year ago.  They returned 15 starters this year.  It’s a team that went 10-3 in 2016 but just 2-10 in 2017.  I think they’re somewhere in between this year. 

Tulsa beat Central Arkansas in the opener 38-27 as 11.5-point favorites.  But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tulsa outgained them by 223 total yards.  Then in Week 2 Tulsa went toe-to-toe with Texas and only lost 21-28 as 22.5-point road underdogs. 

I think the Golden Hurricane are undervalued this week due to their 20-29 home loss to Arkansas State as 2-point favorites last week.  A lot of money came pouring in on Tulsa for that game as they flipped favorites because they opened as dogs.  And now all that money wants nothing to do with them this week.  I like getting a full touchdown with the Golden Hurricane here. 

This Tulsa defense has played two really good offenses in Texas and Arkansas State and have held their own.  This was the weakness of the team last year, but it’s a strength now.  The Golden Hurricane are only allowing 377 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  That’s way down from the 529 yards per game and 5.9 per play they allowed last season.  And the offense is better than it has shown to this point. 

I think Temple comes in overvalued due to its shocking 35-14 win at Maryland as 16-point underdogs last week.  But keep in mind this is a Temple team that was upset 17-19 by Villanova as 14.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They were even outgained by 154 yards in that contest.  They were also upset 29-36 as 4-point home favorites to Buffalo in Week 2 while getting outgained by 72 yards. 

Temple has some serious injury issues coming into this one.  They are without starting DL Dana Levine.  Starting QB Frank Nutile, DL Quincy Roche, K Aaron Boumerhi, TE Kenny Yeboah, and LT James McHale are all listed as questionable for this game.  That’s six potential starters they could be without for this game.  Meanwhile, Tulsa is extremely healthy with only two players on the injury list, and only one is a starter in LB Robert Revels III who is questionable. 

Philip Montgomery is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Tulsa.  Montgomery is 10-1 ATS after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers as the coach of Tulsa.  Montgomery is a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed three or more turnovers as the coach of Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have committed eight turnovers this season thus far otherwise they could easily be 3-0.  Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset in this game tonight.  Take Tulsa Thursday. 

20* USC/Texas FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Texas -3 

I believe we are getting Texas at a great value here as only 3-point home favorites over the USC Trojans.  They would be bigger favorites if not for a sluggish start to the season.  They were clearly overvalued coming into the season, being asked to lay 12 points on the road at Maryland and 21 points at home to Tulsa. 

They lost to Maryland 29-34 outright.  That’s a Maryland team that I feel was underrated coming into the season.  They also only beat Tulsa 28-21 at home, but that was a 21-0 game late in the 3rd quarter before the Longhorns let their foot off the gas.  Those two scores now have the Longhorns undervalued. 

Texas is still one of the best teams in the Big 12.  They have 14 starters back in Tom Herman’s second season and should only get better as the season goes along.  And they have had this game against USC circled all offseason after losing 24-27 (OT) at USC last season.  It’s revenge time for the Longhorns as they get the Trojans at home this time around. 

USC is a team that is due to regress this season after some key losses on offense and defense.  They lost QB Sam Darnold (4,143 yards, 26 TD), leading rusher Ronald Jones (1,550 yards, 19 TD) and leading receiver Deontay Burnett (1,114 yards, 9 TD) to the NFL.  They have clearly not been good through the first two games and will struggle against Texas as well. 

USC only outgained UNLV by 96 yards in the opener in what was a closer game than the final 43-21 margin would suggest.  Then they lost 3-17 at Stanford last week and couldn’t get anything going offensively.  Freshman QB JT Daniels was put in his place by that Stanford defense, and he won’t have much more success here against Texas, either. 

Daniels hit only 16 of 34 passes for 215 yards with two fourth quarter interceptions against Stanford last week.  He sustained a bruise to his right (throwing) hand during the loss, which is obviously a concern for any quarterback.  He will play this week, but he won’t be 100%. 

USC is 0-6 ATS in September road games over the last three seasons.  Texas is 6-0 ATS off a home game over the last two years.  The Longhorns are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 3 to 7 points.  Clay Helton is 1-9 ATS as an underdog as the coach of USC, and his teams are losing by 16.9 points per game in this spot.  Helton is 0-6 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less as the coach of the Trojans.  Roll with Texas Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue +7.5 

This just feels like a ‘rally the troops’ game for Purdue.  It’s a team that had high expectations following a bowl win in Jeff Brohm’s first season last year.  But the Boilermakers are off to an 0-2 start with losses to Northwestern and Eastern Michigan by a combined 5 points.  So they could easily be 2-0, and now they’ll be extra motivated for a win to save their season. 

The Boilermakers have had 15-yard penalties to keep drives alive late in their losses to both Northwestern and Eastern Michigan.  It’s something that Brohm has harped on all week leading up to the game.  I believe Purdue will have an excellent week of practice and put their best foot forward against Missouri this week. 

Purdue outgained Northwestern by 71 yards and Eastern Michigan by 60 yards and clearly should have won both games.  But they lost the turnover battle 5-1 combined in those two games, which has also been a point of emphasis.  The offense, which returned nine starters this year, has been explosive in averaging 474 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  Avoid the turnovers and this is going to be a scary bunch. 

While Purdue is undervalued right now due to its 0-2 start, Missouri is clearly overvalued due to its 2-0 start.  They have blowout wins over Tennessee-Martin and Wyoming.  Big deal.  We saw Wyoming get blown out at home by Washington State the week prior to playing Missouri, and that’s a rebuilding Cougars team. 

No question the Tigers have a good offense, but their defense was one of the worst in the country last year and won’t be much improved.  It’s a Missouri team that went 7-0 against teams with losing records last year, but 0-6 against teams with winning records.  Every time they stepped up in class they couldn’t win.  And they’re stepping up in class here against a capable Big Ten foe. 

Purdue went into Missouri and won 35-3 last year as 6-point underdogs.  The Boilermakers gained 477 yards on offense and allowed just 203 yards on defense, outgaining the Tigers by 274 yards in a dominant effort.  Now we are seeing basically the same spread here with Purdue as a touchdown underdog, but the Boilermakers are at home this time around.  That clearly shows what public perception is doing here, and it’s working in our favor. 

Sure, Missouri will want revenge, but Purdue will match or exceed their intensity after an 0-2 start.  I’m not even sure Missouri is the better of these two teams, but I am certain they are not good enough to justify being a 7.5-point road favorite here. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Purdue) - in a game involving two dominant teams who outgain their opponents by 1.2-plus yards per play, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet Purdue Saturday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo -3 

The Buffalo Bulls are one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country this season.  They went 6-6 last year in Lance Leipold’s third season and got better as the season went on, winning each of their fina three games.  And all six of their losses came by 10 points or less, including a 10-point loss at Minnesota as 24-point dogs and a 4-point loss to Army as 15-point dogs.  They went 8-2-2 ATS last season and were a very undervalued commodity. 

The Bulls returned 14 starters this year, including eight on offense from a unit that average 432 yards per game last year.  Tyree Jackson is back at QB after only starting half the games last year due to injury.  He has stud WR Anthony Johnson back as well, and Johnson had 1,356 yards and 14 touchdowns last year.  Leading rusher Emmanuel Reed (840 yards, 9 TD) is back as well. 

This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders with a 48-10 win over Delaware State in the opener and a 36-29 win at Temple as 4-point dogs in Week 2.  The defense is only giving up 19.5 points and 315 yards per game and 4.5 per play while forcing seven turnovers thus far.  This defense is solid again after allowing just 24.8 points per game last season. 

No question Eastern Michigan has been an undervalued commodity as well over the past couple seasons.  And they are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season, including their shocking 20-19 upset win at Purdue last week.  However, its that win that has me liking Buffalo here.  There’s no question Eastern Michigan is in line for a huge letdown after a road win over a Big Ten opponent.  They won’t be on their ‘A’ game this week because of it. 

The Eagles are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games following a win.  Eastern Michigan is 11-32 ATS in its last 43 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  The Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Buffalo Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -3.5 

The Virginia Cavaliers are in Year 3 under Bronco Mendenhall.  They went 6-7 last year and made a bowl game, already ahead of schedule.  And they have 13 starters back this season, including eight on defense.  This should be his best stop unit yet. 

I’ve been impressed with this Virginia outfit thus far, especially defensively.  They beat Richmond 42-13 in their opener as 14.5-point favorites and outgained them by 267 yards in a dominant effort.  Then they only lost 16-20 at Indiana and covered as 5-point road underdogs against a solid Big Ten squad.  It’s a team I believe to be flying under the radar. 

Ohio has only played one game because they had an open date Week 2.  They have that advantage plus this game has been moved from Virginia to Nashville, so it will essentially be a neutral site game.  But I think that’s why we are getting a shorter price on Virginia than we should be here as only 3.5-point favorites. 

And that opener by Ohio was shocking, and it’s a sign of things to come for this team this season.  Ohio only beat Howard 38-32 as 30.5-point home favorites.  The Bobcats were actually outgained by 220 yards by Howard! But they won’t the turnover battle 4-0, which is the only reason they were able to pull out the win. 

The Bobcats gave up a whopping 645 total yards to Howard.  It’s a defense that has problems because they only returned four starters on D this year.  They have to replace six of seven starters along the front seven.  And get this, Howard lost 14-54 at Kent State in Week 2!  I don’t need to say it but Kent State is not very good. 

Mendenhall is 8-1 ATS off a non-conference game as the coach of Virginia.  Mendenhall is 6-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Cavaliers.  The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Florida -20 

The Florida Gators are a team I’m very high on coming into the season.  They had 19 returning starters and Dan Mullen is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  And they looked the part in their season-opening 53-6 win over Southern.  But they were upset 16-27 by Kentucky last week, ending their 31-game winning streak over the Wildcats. 

I think because they were upset they are laying fewer points than they should be this week against Colorado State.  And because Colorado State upset Arkansas at home last week, the Rams are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  It’s the perfect storm and a great situation to back the Gators this week.  They’ll be motivated to bounce back, while the Rams could fall flat and will get beat up playing two SEC teams in consecutive weeks. 

This is a Colorado State team that couldn’t look any worse in their first two games.  They trailed Hawaii 37-7 and lost 34-43 as 17-point home favorites in their opener.  They lost 13-45 to Colorado as 7-point underdogs on a neutral field in Week 2.  And they were down 27-9 late against Arkansas before scoring 25 unanswered points to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.  I still don’t believe this team is any good, and that will show this week as the Gators keep their foot on the gas for four quarters. 

This Colorado State defense is giving up a whopping 38.3 points and 550 yards per game this season while yielding 7.7 yards per play.  Florida should be able to score at will on them.  And this Florida defense is one of the best in the country and has been one for years.  Colorado State only managed 13 points against Colorado, and I’d be surprised if they top that total this weekend. 

The Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit home loss.  The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Off a rare cover against Arkansas last week in a miracle comeback, the Rams will get back to their losing ways against the number here.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +4 

I liked Pitt coming into the season and took their OVER 5.5 wins as part of my Top 10 NCAAF Season Win Totals bets.  This was a game I expected the Panthers to win, and I still do.  And I think it’s a great time to back them as they are undervalued off their misleading 6-51 loss to Penn State last week. 

That was a 7-6 game against Penn State with only a few seconds left before halftime.  The Nittany Lions scored right before half, and proceeded to roll in the second half.  But Pitt was only outgained by 90 yards in that contest and held the Nittany Lions to 390 total yards, which is no small feat against that offense.  I believe this is the best defense that Pat Narduzzi has fielded at Pitt with nine returning starters from last year. 

Georgia Tech gave up a whopping 49 points in their loss to South Florida last week.  That loss and defensive effort is a big concern considering USF lost most of their studs from last season and isn’t nearly as good as they have been over the past few years. 

Georgia Tech has some key injuries heading into this one.  For starters, QB TaQuan Marshall is nursing a toe injury that will slow him down.  And the Yellow Jackets lost their stud B-Back in KirVonte Benson to a season-ending knee injury in the lost to USF.  He rushed for 1,053 yards and six touchdowns last year.  Their next leading back had 271 yards on the ground, so it’s a huge blown.  And center Kenny Cooper has a foot injury as well and is questionable for this one.  He made 11 starts last year and would be a big loss if he can’t go. 

I simply feel that the wrong team is favored here Saturday.  Georgia Tech is 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite, including four losses by double-digits.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday. 

20* FSU/Syracuse ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +3 

The Syracuse Orange are in the 3rd year under Dino Babers.  They have 14 returning starters including eight on an explosive offense that could hang with anyone when QB Eric Dungey was healthy last year.  That showed by how they performed against their best competition last year. 

Syracuse handed Clemson its only regular season loss last year in a 27-24 upset at home as 23-point dogs.  The Orange hung with LSU for four quarters and only lost 26-35 on the road as 21-point dogs.  They only lost at NC State 25-33 as 13-point dogs.  They only lost at Miami 19-27 as 17-point dogs.  And they nearly upset Florida State in a 24-27 road loss as 6-point dogs. 

Once Dungey got hurt last year, the Orange folded in their final three games.  Dungey is back healthy and has this Syracuse offense hitting on all cylinders.  The Orange have averaged 58.5 points and 508 yards per game in wins over Western Michigan and Wagner.  Dungey has a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 244 yards and a score on 9.4 per carry thus far through two games. 

Florida State is a team in transition under first-year head coach Willie Taggart.  It has been an ugly start for the Seminoles.  They lost 3-24 at home to Virginia Tech as 7.5-point favorites in their opener and committed five turnovers.  Even worse was their 36-26 home win over lowly Samford as 31-point favorites in Week 2.  Samford actually gained 525 total yards on this suspect FSU defense and committed 5 turnovers, otherwise they probably would have pulled off the upset.   

You can just imagine what Dungey and company will do against this FSU defense.  And the Orange want revenge from that 27-24 loss at Florida State last year.  I simply believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup as Syracuse has the better team this year. 

The Seminoles are 0-7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games.  Florida State is 0-6 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Syracuse is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall with its only non-covers coming without Dungey under center.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* Boston College/Wake Forest ACC ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +7 

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons just get no respect.  They went 8-5 last season and 8-3-2 ATS in their 13 games.  Dave Clawson has now gotten the Demon Deacons to back-to-back bowl games.  They are well on their way to another bowl game after their 2-0 start in Clawson’s 5th season. 

The Demon Deacons returned 14 starters this season.  Eight starters are back on an offense that set a school record with 454 points last year while averaging 35.3 points and 466 yards per game.  They were competitive in every single game last season due to the offense and did not get beat by more than 14 points all season. 

All five starters and a whopping 132 career starts returned along the offensive line in what will be one of the ACC’s top O-Lines.  Each of the top two receivers are back from last year in Greg Dortch (53 receptions, 722 yards, 9 TD) and Scotty Washington (45, 711, 3 TD), as is leading rusher Matt Colburn (904 yards, 7 TD).  That has helped ease the transition of highly touted freshman QB Sam Hartman. 

The offense is in high gear already as the Demon Deacons have averaged 37 points and 565 yards per game in wins over Tulane and Towson.  They beat Tulane 23-17 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained Tulane by 112 yards, and that’s a Tulane team that went on to beat FCS power Nicholls State 42-17 the following week.  Nicholls State upset Kansas on the road in Week 1.  Wake Forest then handled Towson 51-20 in Week 2. 

Hartman is completing 61.5% of his passes for 620 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 128 yards and a score on 5.8 per carry.  And he hasn’t even had the services of Washington yet, who missed the two games with a shoulder injury and is questionable tonight.  Dortch leads the way with 19 receptions for 243 yards and Sage Surratt has 15 receptions for 213 yards. 

Boston College is a team that everyone and their brother has jumped on this season as being a team that could contend in the ACC.  While I agree they should be good, the love has gotten out of control, especially after a 2-0 start against weak competition in UMass and Holy Cross.  Now the Eagles are being asked to go on the road and win by a touchdown or more to cover this spread this week, and I feel like it’s too much.  I think Wake wins this game outright. 

That’s precisely what happened last year as Wake Forest dominated Boston College 34-10 on the road.  The Demon Deacons forced four turnovers and held Boston College to 305 total yards.  Boston College has only beaten Wake Forest by more than 6 points on the road once in the last seven trips to Winston-Salem.  That was a 10-point victory back in 2010. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Wake Forest) - in a game involving two dominant teams that are outgaining their opponents by 100-plus yards per game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Wake Forest is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog.  Clawson is 14-3 ATS off a win by 21 or more points in all games he has coached.  Clawson is 9-1 ATS off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse in all games he has coached.  They only had 13 turnovers all of last season, and now they have 5 already this season.  It has been a point of emphasis in practice this week for Clawson.  Look for a big effort from the Demon Deacons at home tonight.  Take Wake Forest Thursday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota -1.5 

I’m buying Minnesota being vastly improved this season in Year 2 under P.J. Fleck, who is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  What he did at Western Michigan two years ago goes without saying.  And now he’s trying to rebuild Minnesota football into a Big Ten contender. 

Fleck now has more of his players in place after a 5-7 campaign in his first season.  He has 14 returning starters to work with.  The Gophers can only be better offensively as they return seven starters, their leading rusher, top two receivers and four starters along the offensive line.  That makes life on freshman QB Zack Annexstad much easier. 

Fleck turned an inexperienced defense that returned just five starters last year into one of the Big Ten’s best units.  The Gophers only allowed 22.8 points and 347 yards per game in 2017.  Now they return seven starters, led by leading tackler Thomas Barber (115 tackles, 10.5 for loss last year) at linebacker.  This is an experienced unit that has nine junior and senior starters.  One of the sophomores is Antoine Winfield, who got a medical redshirt and will be one of the best safeties in the Big Ten. 

Minnesota was sharp in its 48-10 season-opening victory over New Mexico State as 21.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 16.5 points.  Annexstad threw for 220 yards and two touchdowns in his first career start.  The Gophers rushed for 300 yards and 6.5 per carry.  Winfield made his presence felt with a 76-yard punt return TD that blew the game wide open. 

I backed Fresno State several times last season.  I saw the improvement coming from Jeff Tedford, the former Cal coach, and he did a remarkable job.  The Bulldogs finished 10-4 and lost to Boise State by only a field goal in the Mountain West Championship Game.  They went on to beat Houston 33-27 in their bowl game. 

Now Fresno State returns 15 starters and is on everyone’s radar.  The betting public is quick to back this team, but I think the love for them is too much right now.  That’s especially the case off a 79-13 win over FCS bottom feeder Idaho.  That game was much closer than the final score as the Bulldogs only outgained them by 181 yards but shockingly won the turnover battle 7-0. 

Now Fresno State is basically being asked to go into enemy territory against a quality Big Ten opponent and win the game straight up just to cover.  I’m not buying it.  I’ll gladly take Minnesota at this price and watch the Golden Gophers steamroll this Group of 5 squad. 

Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game.  Fleck is 17-6 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Tedford is 10-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games as a head coach.  Bet Minnesota Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida -13.5 

Florida should be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2018.  The Gators are coming off a 4-7 disaster.  They lost their starting RB, top WR and eight other players to suspension prior to the season.  None of those suspended players returning.  They were also decimated by injuries and had no depth.  They were without 28 scholarship players and their head coach by the end of the season. 

Now Dan Mullen steps into a great situation.  Florida has 19 returning starters and gets some of those suspended players back.  Mullen did an underrated job at Mississippi State, taking the Bulldogs to seven bowl games in his nine seasons.  He was the perfect hire for Florida and exactly the guy that can get them back into SEC title contention. 

Florida owns the longest series win streak in the nation with 31 consecutive wins over Kentucky.  That streak was in jeopardy last year as the Gators trailed 24-14, but Felipe Franks took over for an injured Luke Del Rio at that point.  Franks led two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes and Kentucky missed a potential game-winning field goal, with the Gators prevailing 28-27. 

Last time in Gainesville, Florida rolled Kentucky 45-7.  The Gators led 45-0 until garbage time and outgained the Wildcats 564-149.  I think we get back to seeing the kind of dominance we expect from Florida in this rivalry in 2018.   

Kentucky is just 2-10 in its last 12 SEC road openers.  Kentucky lost their left tackle Landon Young in the season opener and don’t have much of a veteran presence this season.  The Wildcats are only the 102nd-most experienced team in the country, so this is a young roster.  Dan Mullen went 8-1 against Kentucky while at Mississippi State, playing them every year. 

Kentucky wasn’t very impressive in its opener, failing to cover as 17.5-point favorites in a 35-20 home win over an inexperienced, rebuilding Central Michigan team.  The quarterback play was very shaky as the Wildcats break in a new QB this year.  The combo of Terry Wilson and Gunnar Hoak went 15-of-27 passing for just 128 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the win.  They have more questions than answers heading into Week 2 at QB.  Whoever is under center is going to have to make plays with their arm to hang with Florida, and I just don’t think they are capable. 

Conversely, Florida handled its business, winning 53-6 as 43-point favorites against Charleston Southern.  Franks threw for 219 yards and 5 touchdowns in the win.  He suddenly looks like a star in the making as a sophomore.  Charleston Southern QB’s went just 5-of-16 passing for 3 yards against Florida. 

Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Gators are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Florida) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Florida Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Baylor -16 

Baylor should be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2018.  Matt Rhule enters his second season and is another year removed from the tumultuous offseason from 2016.  Rhule loves a challenge, and I think he starts seeing some of the fruits of his labor in 2018. 

Baylor went just 1-11 last season, but took both Oklahoma (41-49) and West Virginia (34-38) to the wire.  The Bears were more competitive than their record showed.  Now they have a whopping 17 starters and 52 lettermen returning this season, while losing just 15 lettermen.  Rhule has cleaned house and now has his players in place moving forward. 

Baylor rolled Abilene Christian 55-27 in its opener.  The Bears racked up 606 total yards, including 295 rushing and 8.2 per carry.  QB Charlie Brewer, who completed 68.4% of his passes with an 11-to-4 TD/INT ratio last season, got banged up in the win.  They took him out for precautionary reasons, but he is expected back healthy this week. 

UTSA had a solid team the last two years, going 6-7 in 2016 and 6-5 in 2017.  But they lose a lot of players from those teams as they have just 10 returning starters this season.  They had to replace a ton of seniors from last year and are actually just the 128th-most experienced team in the country this season. 

I think we saw that inexperience in the opener.  UTSA was blitzed 7-49 by Arizona State.  They managed just 220 total yards and committed three turnovers in the loss.  And that was an Arizona State team going through change and a new head coach in Herm Edwards.  I think Baylor is better than Arizona State this season, and the Bears should be much bigger than 16-point favorites in this matchup. 

Plays on road favorites (Baylor) - after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Rhule is a perfect 7-0 ATS all-time after leading in their previous game by 17 points or more at the half in all games as a head coach.  Take Baylor Saturday. 

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State +34.5

Ball State has the makings of one of the most improved teams in the country.  They went just 2-10 last season with 11 starters back, but now they have 16 starters back in 2018 and should challenge for a bowl game. 

The biggest problem for Ball State last year was that QB Riley Neal started the first three games but then was knocked out with a season-ending injury.  And the Cardinals opened 2-1 with their only loss coming 21-24 at Illinois as 6-point underdogs.  They also lost RB James Gilbert after two games.  Well, Neal and Gilbert are both back healthy to guide the offense this season. 

Both players were on their game in their season-opening 42-6 victory over Central Connecticut State as 19.5-point favorites, covering by 16.5 points.  Neal went 23-of-30 passing for 259 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 37 yards and a score.  Gilbert had 100 yards rushing and a touchdown on 14 carries.  This is certainly a team to look out for this season. 

This is an awful spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish opened the season with arguably their biggest game of the year, and they beat Michigan 24-17.  Now they are primed for a letdown the falling week as they will have been patted on the back all week leading up to this game.  They won’t have 100% focus for Ball State. 

But the Fighting Irish only managed 302 total yards in the win, and their offense is going to hold them back again this year.  They don’t have the kind of offense that is built to cover massive numbers like this 34.5-point spread.  They are a power-running team that needs to control time of possession because Brandon Wimbush isn’t a very good passer.  He only completed 49.5% of his passes last season for 1,870 yards despite making 12 starts.  He managed just 12-of-22 completions against Michigan. 

The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Ball State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Independent opponents.  The Cardinals are 54-26 ATS in their last 80 road games.  The Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. 

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (Ball State) - after outgunning their opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.  This is way too many points.  Bet Ball State Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +35.5 

Rutgers is a team I’m looking to back early and often.  In fact, when I did my Top 10 season win total bets, Rutgers OVER 3.5 was high up on my list.  I won with them last week as 16-point favorites in a 35-7 win over Texas State.  I’m back on them for many of the same reasons this week. 

Rutgers went 4-8 last year, but was more competitive and now enters Year 3 under head coach Chris Ash, which is when teams usually make their biggest improvements.  The Scarlet Knights return 15 starters this season.  They have seven back on offense and will be better, simply because freshman QB Artur Sitkowski is one of the top recruits in the country.  He ran away with he job this fall and is one of the better young QB’s that not many folks know about. 

The defense improved a ton last year, going from allowing 37.5 points per game in 2016 to 28.3 points per game in 2017.  Now the defense returns eight starts and five of the six tacklers.  Not only will this be Ash’s best defense yet, it will also be one of the better units in the Big Ten. 

Rutgers outgained Texas State 423 to 169, or by 254 total yards.  Sitkowski threw for 205 yards and a touchdown, but he was also picked off three times.  Now that he has a game under his belt, he should be much more comfortable in Week 2.  And the Scarlet Knights ran for 218 yards as a team, led by Boston College transfer Jon Hillman, who had 60 yards and two scores and adds a punch to this rushing attack. 

I think Ohio State comes in overvalued off its 77-31 victory over Oregon State as 40-point favorites.  Well, Oregon State is the worst team in the Power 5 outside of perhaps Kansas.  And they managed to hang 31 points on the Buckeyes.  Ohio State isn’t going to score 77 on Rutgers in this one.  I’m anticipating Rutgers is good enough to hold the Buckeyes below 50, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this massive 35.5-point spread. 

Ohio State is also in a big lookahead spot.  The Buckeyes have a huge game at TCU on deck in their biggest non-conference game this season.  I think they’ll be more than happy to get a win and pull the starters early in this one.  They won’t be looking to run up the score like they were against Oregon State, especially since defensive coordinator Greg Schiano owes Rutgers a big thanks for getting his coaching career kick-started.  Schiano and company will call off the dogs if necessary. 

Ash is 6-0 ATS off a win as the coach of Rutgers.  Urban Meyer teams are 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more points as the coach of Ohio State.  Plays against home favorites of 31.5 or more points (Ohio State) who outgained their opponents by 1.5 or more yards per play, with 5 defensive starters returning are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.  Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (Rutgers) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.  Take Rutgers Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas State +36.5 

This is a situational play for me.  Alabama just doesn’t cover these kinds of game.  Since 2011, in their last 13 games as a favorite of at least 28 points against non-conference FBS opponents, Alabama just just 1-10-2 ATS.   

I have cashed going against the Crimson Tide several times in this same scenario.  I was also against them the one time they actually did cover two years ago as 43-point favorites in a 48-0 win over Kent State.  But Kent State had a TD overturned on review late, otherwise they wouldn’t have covered that game, either. 

The reason for their struggles in this spot is because they are usually in a letdown situation or a lookahead spot.  In this case, it’s a letdown situation after their big win over Louisville last week, and they could be looking ahead to Ole Miss.  Plus, Nick Saban just isn’t the type of coach to run it up on an opponent.  He shows mercy, unless it’s an SEC rival. 

Arkansas State is one of the better Group of 5 programs in the country.  The Red Wolves have won five Sun Belt titles in the past seven seasons.  They fell just short last year with a 25-32 loss to Troy.  In fact, they went 7-5 last year and four of those five losses came by 7 points or fewer.  They were in every game they played. 

Now the Red Wolves welcome back 12 starters, and they biggest key is that they get their top three playmakers back on offense.  Leading rusher Warren Wand and leading receiver Justin Mcinnis both return.  But the key is getting senior QB Justice Hansen back.  He threw for 3,967 yards and 37 touchdowns last year, while also rushing for 422 yards and seven scores.  He will give Alabama some problems. 

Arkansas State’s 48-21 win over SE Missouri State last week was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Red Wolves outgained them by 400 yards.  They racked up 685 yards on offense, including 423 passing yards and six touchdowns from Hansen.  They also gave up just 285 yards on defense.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-0 to keep the score closer than it was, and gave up a meaningless TD with only 37 seconds left. 

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (Arkansas State) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.  The Red Wolves are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -8.5 

The Vanderbilt Commodores just get no love every season, especially early in the year.  They opened this season as only 3-point favorites over Middle Tennessee.  They proceeded to crush the Blue Raiders 35-7, covering the spread by 25 points. 

The Commodores held what was supposed to be an explosive MTSU offense to just one touchdown and 294 total yards.  Now they’re up against another supposed high-powered Nevada offense, and I expect them to shut them down, too. 

I like what Jay Norvell is doing at Nevada, making them a fun program to watch.  It’s an offense that put up 28 points per game last season and got better as the season went on.  But the defensive deficiencies are still there after allowing 34 points per game and 471 total yards per game last year. 

I think Nevada is getting too much credit for its 72-19 shellacking of Portland State last week.  Well, Portland State went 0-11 last season and is one of the worst teams in the FCS.  Now Nevada will have to go up against SEC talent, and I believe Vanderbilt will have the talent edge at every position on the field. 

Nevada is 0-4 against current SEC members all-time.  The Wolf Pack are just 1-11 SU in true road games over the last two seasons.  Vanderbilt is 15-2 SU when hosting non-conference opponents since 2011, and 10-2 SU when hosting Group of 5 teams since 2008.   

Derek Mason is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of the Commodores.  The Wolf Pack are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday. 

20* TCU/SMU ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on TCU -22 

The TCU Horned Frogs have one of the most underrated programs in the country.  Gary Patterson just gets the most out of his players.  What the Horned Frogs lack in talent, they make up for in guts and smarts.  They have won at least 10 games three of the past four seasons. 

The Horned Frogs have a stout defense every year, and that is the case again this season.  They have six starters back on D from a unit that gave up just 19.0 points per game last season, which is mighty impressive in the Big 12.  They should have the best defense in this conference once again. 

I thought Kenny Hill was an erratic quarterback last year and held their offense back.  But talented sophomore Shawn Robinson will be the signal caller this season and should be better than Hill was.  The leading rusher (Darius Anderson) and leading receiver (Jalen Reagor) are both back this season to help out Robinson. 

TCU beat Southern 55-7 in its opener.  Robinson threw for 182 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 45 yards and two scores on two carries before giving way to backup quarterbacks.  They had 55 points by the end of the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs. 

SMU was a team I was high on under Chad Morris.  He did a great job of getting them to a bowl last season and a 7-6 record overall.  Now Morris is gone to Arkansas, a much-deserved promotion for him.  SMU hired Sonny Dykes in the offseason, and Dykes is a coach I have no problem going against because he simply isn’t that good.  He has a career record of 41-46.  LA Tech got better once he left, and Cal got better once he left, too. 

Dykes was on the sidelines for SMU’s 10-51 loss to Louisiana Tech in the bowl game.  And Dykes’ 2018 debut was a rough one as well.  SMU lost 23-46 at North Texas, giving up 461 passing yards to the Mean Green.  Their offense only managed 256 yards against a terrible North Texas defense, and they were outgained by 273 yards in the game.   

That’s a sign of things to come about how much this SMU program has fallen with the loss of Morris and the hiring of Dykes.  The thing is Dykes is known for having an offensive mind, and he has a good QB in Ben Hicks back from lsat season.  So to only managed 256 yards against that North Texas defense is atrocious.  And SMU has never been good defensively as they gave up 36.7 points and 477 yards per game last season.  They could be even worse on that side of the ball this year. 

I think TCU can name its number on offense, and the defense is going to limit SMU to fewer than 20 points.  TCU has really owned SMU, going 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in the five meetings over the past five seasons.  The Horned Frogs have outscored the Mustangs by an average of 31.2 points per game in those five meetings.  I expect them to win by 30-plus in this one as well, and they only need to win by more than 22 to get us a cover.  Bet TCU Friday. 

15* VA Tech/FSU ESPN Monday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 54.5 

Willie Taggart steps into a great situation at Florida State, especially from an offensive perspective.  He is known for coaching up high-octane offenses, and he will love the talent he has to work with here.  Florida State returns 8 starters on offense, including QB Deondre Francois, who was lost to a season-ending injury in the opener against Alabama last year.  That injury derailed their season. 

Francois has the luxury of having each of his top two rushers back, including the electric Came Akers, who rushed for 1,024 yards and seven touchdowns last year as a freshman.  He also had leading receiver Nyqwan Murray back, along with four starters and 90 career starts on the offensive line.  This should be one of the best offenses in the country. 

The problem for the Seminoles this year is going to be defense.  They go from having 9 returning starters on D last year to only 4 returning starters this year.  They lost six of their top seven tacklers.  This unit is certainly going to be a mystery, and I’m banking on this being one of the worse defenses in recent memory at FSU. 

VA Tech coach Justin Fuente earned his stripes at Memphis for what he did on the offensive side of the football.  And he’s doing it again at Virginia Tech.  The Hokies averaged 35.0 points per game in his first season in 2016.  They did slip to 28.2 points per game last year, but they only had 5 returning starters and were breaking in a freshman quarterback.  Now the Hokies have 7 returning starters on offense, including QB Josh Jackson, who is now a sophomore.  He completed 60% of his passes for 2,991 yards and a 20-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 324 yards and 6 scores as a freshman.  He should take this offense to new heights this year. 

Like Florida State, VA Tech’s biggest questions coming into the season are on the defensive side of the football.  The Hokies return just 5 starters on defense and lose several players to the NFL.  Gone to the NFL are CB Greg Stroman, LB Tremaine Edmunds, and DT Tim Settle.  This is going to be one of the youngest defenses in the country.  Bud Foster will have to work his magic on this group.  They won’t come close to matching last year’s impressive numbers. 

Taggart is 19-7 OVER as a home favorite in all games he has coached.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

20* Miami/LSU ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 47 

The Miami Hurricanes take on the LSU Tigers on Sunday in one of the most anticipated Week 1 games on the board.  They will meet in Arlington, and I’m expecting a defensive battle in this one between two teams whose strengths are their defenses. 

Miami gave up 18.5 points per game in 2016 and 21.0 points per game last season.  Those were Mark Richt’s first two years on the job.  Now they have 7 starters and each of their top 5 tacklers back from last year’s squad, making this likely Richt’s best defense yet. 

Inconsistent quarterback play held Miami back down the stretch last season.  Malik Rosier threw for 3,120 yards and 26 touchdowns, but he also threw 14 interceptions and completed just 54% of his passes.  And now he’ll be without each of his top two receivers from last year in Braxton Berrios and Christopher Herndon. 

Ed Oregon is on the hotseat already at LSU because he still hasn’t developed an offense.  That was especially the case last year when the Tigers went up against some similar defenses to Miami.  They managed beat Florida 17-16, lost to Alabama 10-24, and lost to Notre Dame 17-21.  As you can see, their defense played well enough to win those games, but their offense didn’t get the job done. 

Now LSU has just 5 returning starters on offense.  They lose QB Danny Etling, who had a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio, so he will be tougher to replace than most expect.  The new QB is Joe Burrow.  Derrius Guide and Darrell Williams, who combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns last year, have departed. And each of the top three pass catchers from last year are gone.  This offense is going to struggle again. 

But you can count on LSU to have a great defense, which they have for over a decade and that has been the case again with Orgeron running the show and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda calling the shots.  LSU gave up just 15.8 points per game in 2016 and 18.9 points per game in 2017.  While they only have 5 starters back this season, that happens almost every year as they had just 5 starters back on D last season as well.  They do have three of their top four tacklers back, including the best LB in the country in Devin White (133 tackles, 14 for loss last year).  This will be one of the best stop units in the country. 

Orgeron is 34-18 UNDER in all games he has been a head coach.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Hurricanes last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 20-8-2 in Tigers last 30 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hurricanes last six neutral site games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Tigers last four neutral site games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.  

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Ohio +2.5 

Miami Ohio remarkably opened 0-6 in 2016 and finished 6-0 to make a bowl game, where they would lose by a single points 16-17 to Mississippi State as 14-point underdogs.  Many expected them to be real good last year because they had 17 returning starters.  But the Redhawks lost QB Gus Ragland for three games, and they lost two starting offensively linemen for the first four games.  Miami suffered four losses by 5 points or less to finish 5-7 in 2017. 

Now, the Redhawks have 16 returning starters and will be one of the most improved teams in the country. Miami Ohio is expected to have 15 senior starters among the 22 on offense and defense.  This is a team I’m going to be looking to back early and often. 

Offensively, the Redhawks have eight returning starters, including QB Gus Ragland, who had a 39-to-8 TD/INT ratio in three years with the program.  He has stud receiver James Gardner (47 receptions, 927 yards, 11 TD) back as his disposal.  Each of the top two rushers are back from last year.  They have seven offensive linemen with starting experience and 100 career starts back. 

Defensively, the Redhawks have eight returning starters from a unit that gave up just 24.1 points per game last season.  This will be one of the best units in the MAC this season. 

Marshall made a big jump last year from 3-9 in 2016 to 8-5 in 2017.  And now they have 18 returning starters, so they will be pretty good again.  But they lose their most important player in QB Chase Litton, who threw for 3,115 yards and 25 touchdowns a year ago.  Their defense will be good again, but their offense only managed 26.7 points per game last year even with good QB play, and they likely won’t get the kind of production they had from Litton last year.   

Marshall still hasn’t announced its starting QB yet and likely won’t until gamely.  Alex Thomson is likely the new QB, and the grad transfer from Wagner has made 20 starts in his career, but he has completed just 55% of his passes.  It will either be Thomson or redshirt freshman Isaiah Green, and whoever starts will be making their first start at the FBS level. 

What really stood out to me about this game is that this is a rematch from last year.  Marshall beat Miami Ohio 31-26 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  But that final score doesn’t even tell half the story.  Miami outgained Marshall 429 to 267 for the game, or by 162 total yards.  Marshall got three non-offensive touchdowns in the game with a 99-yard KO return, a 97-yard kickoff return and a 72-yard interception return.  It’s amazing Miami only lost by 5.   

Now the Redhawks will be out for revenge and get the Thundering Herd at home this time around.  They are fully healthy coming into this matchup and should get the job done.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Miami Ohio Saturday. 

25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on California -7 

Justin Wilcox did a good job in his first season at Cal head coach last year.  The Golden Bears went just 5-7, but they had three losses by a combined 7 points.  This was an inexperienced team last year, but that won’t be the case in 2018. 

The Golden Bears return 18 starters this season and go from being #110 in experience last year all the way up to #18 this year.  They also faced the 2nd-toughest schedule in the country last year, and this year they only face the 49th toughest.  This could be one of the most improved teams in the land. 

The offense returns 10 starters after having just 5 starters back on offense last year.  Junior QB Ross Bowers is back after throwing for 3,039 yards and 18 touchdowns a year ago.  Leading rusher Patrick Laird (1,127 yards, 8 TD, 5.9/carry) and each of the top two receivers in Vic Wharton and Kanawai Noa (123 receptions, 1,659 yards, 9 TD between them) are back.  All five starters and seven who have started return along the offensive line. 

Wilcox is known for defense, and he improved this group dramatically last year.  Cal gave up 42.6 points and 518 yards per game in 2016, but those numbers dropped to 28.4 points and 430 yards per game in 2017 under Wilcox.  Now he has 8 starts back on defense and the numbers should improve once again. 

UNC is an absolute mess right now.  The Tar Heels are coming off a 3-9 season and return a modest 13 starters this year.  Their three wins last year came against Old Dominion, Western Carolina and Pitt.  While they can’t be any worse, they aren’t going to be much better, either. 

That’s because they had 13 players suspended for at least one game and as many as four games for selling team-issued shoes.  Nine of the 13 suspended players will miss the first four games, the most notable being QB Chazz Surratt, the team leader last season in passing yards, yards per attempt and completion percentage. 

Not to mention, projected starting RB Michael Carter (558 yards, 8 TD, 5.8 YPC LY) is out until late September with a wrist injury.  Starting DT Aaron Crawford (29 tackles, 3 sacks LY) is out with a knee injury.  The Tar Heels are going to be short-handed for the opener and for the first month of the season for that matter.  Cal went on the road and beat UNC 35-30 in the opener last season.  Now they get the Tar Heels at home this time around and the Golden Bears are vastly improved. 

This is the longest road trip (2,800 miles) in school history for the Tar Heels.  California is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.  The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last six September games.  Bet California Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +24 

The Appalachian State Mountaineers have cemented themselves as one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country over the past decade.  It all started when they upset Michigan in the Big House back in 2007.  But they have since taken some other Power 5 teams right down to the wire. 

The Mountaineers won 11 games in 2015, 10 games in 2016 and 9 games in 2017.  They have won at least 10 games five times over the past decade.  They only lost 13-20 as 20-point underdogs in Week 1 against Tennessee two years ago.  They lost 10-31 at Georgia in the opener last year, and we all know how good Georgia turned out to be.  They also lost 19-20 as 5-point home dogs to an 8-win Wake Forest team last year. 

I was impressed with the way the Mountaineers finished the season last year.  They won their final four games by 21, 21, 49 and 34 points, including their 34-0 beat down of Toledo in the Dollar General Bowl.  That gives them a ton of momentum heading into 2018. 

Appalachian State returns only 11 starters but 59 lettermen, so while they may be a little young, they have plenty of depth.  The loss of four-year starting QB Taylor Lamb is tough, but sophomore Zac Thomas is ready to be the next great QB here.  Reports are he’s actually a better runner and has a better arm than Lamb did, so the future is bright for him. 

The good news for Thomas is that he’ll be able to lean on an offensive line that returns five players with starting experience, including 1st-Team All-Sun Belt LT Victor Johnson.  And they’ll be blocking for the best RB in the Sun Belt in Jalin Moore, who has delivered back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. 

The bread and butter of the Mountaineers has been defense under head coach Scott Satterfield.  They allowed just 19.1 points per game in 2015, 17.8 in 2016 and 20.2 in 2017.  They return 14 of their top 20 tacklers from a year ago and should be good again.  It’s this defense that will give them a chance to hang with Penn State Saturday. 

I think the Nittany Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the country heading into 2018.  They shocked everyone by winning 11 game each of the last two seasons, but now they lose a ton of talent from those two teams.  The Nittany Lions have just 10 returning starters in 2018. 

While they have seven starters back on offense, including QB Trace McSorley, they lose their top three playmakers in RB Saquon Barkley (1,903 scrimmage yards, 21 total TD LY), WR DaeSean Hamilton (857 yards, 9 TD LY) and TE Mike Gesicki (57 receptions, 563 yards, 9 TD LY).  That trio is simply irreplaceable. 

The losses are just as big on defense as the Nittany Lions return only 3 starters this year.  They lost seven of their top eight tacklers from a year ago, so it will basically be all new faces for them on this side of the ball.  There’s no way they even come close to last year’s 16.5 points per game allowed.  They gave up 25.4 points per game in 2016 and will likely be closer to that number this year.   

Penn State opens the 2018 season with expectations it simply cannot live up to from a point spread perspective.  They should not be 24-point favorites over pesky Appalachian State in the opener.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Roll with Appalachian State Saturday. 

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Rutgers -16 

Rutgers is a team I’ll be looking to back early and often.  In fact, when I did my Top 10 season win total bets, the Rutgers Over 3.5 made my list.  It’s a team that went 4-8 last year and now enters year 3 under head coach Chris Ash, which is when teams usually make their biggest improvements. 

The Scarlet Knights return 15 starters this season.  Freshman QB Artur Sitkowski is one of the top recruits in the country, and he ran away with the job in fall camp and has been named the starter.  He is a big reason why I’m so high on this team because he has all the tools to be one of the better quarterbacks in the country that most don’t know much about. 

The offense has seven starters back and can only improve after averaging just 18 points per game a year ago.  They brought in a new coordinator in John McNulty, who has spent the past nine years in the NFL with four teams, and he was the former offensive coordinator at Rutgers from 2004-2008.  There is a lot of talent at receiver, three starters return on the offensive line that allowed just 18 sacks last year, and Jon Hillman is a grad transfer from Boston College at running back who should inject life into the running game. 

The defense improved a ton last year, going from allowing 37.5 points per game in 2016 to 28.3 points per game in 2017.  Now that unit returns eight starters and five of the top six tacklers.  This will be one of the most underrated stop units in the Big Ten this season. 

Texas State was one of the worst teams in the country last season.  The Bobcats went just 2-10 and were outscored by an average of 16.3 points per game on the season.  Their two wins came against Houston Baptist and Coastal Carolina, an FCS team and a team that was in their first season at the FBS level. 

The Bobcats do have 14 starters back this year, but they won’t be any good.  They lose their starting QB in Damian Williams and their most explosive playmakers in WR Elijah King (750 yards, 3 TD).  Sophomore Willie Lee Jones is expected to step in at QB, but he completed just 48.6% of his 37 attempts last year in the backup role.   

Texas State is expected to be the worst team in the Sun Belt, which is the worst conference in the country.  The Scarlet Knights from the Big Ten should have no problem waxing them by 17-plus points to get the win and cover in this one.  Take Rutgers Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Line Mistake on Coastal Carolina +29.5 

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will be playing their first season as an official FBS member after dominating in FCS over the past five years.  They won 12, 12, 9 and 10 games from 2013-2016.  Last year they played a schedule that featured 11 FBS teams to get them prepared for this season. 

They went just 3-9 last year, but there were some highlights, and evidence that they were better than their record would suggest.  They went 1-5 in games decided by 8 points or less.  But they won their final two games against Idaho and Georgia Southern outright as underdogs to give them some momentum heading into 2018. 

Now they have 12 returning starters after having just 9 back last year.  And one huge factor is that head coach Joe Moglia, the former FCS Coach of the Year, missed the entire season last year with a lung infection.  He’s back healthy now and will be on the sidelines coaching this team up. 

Perhaps Coastal Carolina’s most impressive effort last season was in a loss.  The Chanticleers went on the road as 23-point underdogs and nearly upset SEC foe Arkansas 38-39.  That effort showed that they could play with the big boys, which is a big reason why I think they can hang with South Carolina, or at least stay within this 29.5-point spread. 

South Carolina overachieved last year by going 9-4.  They were opposite of Coastal Carolina in terms of luck in close games.  The Gamecocks went 6-1 in games decided by 8 points or less.  They didn’t beat anyone by more than 26 points.  They only beat Wofford 31-10 as 27-point home favorites, and they only beat Louisiana Tech 17-16 as 9-point home favorites. 

So now expectations are high for the Gamecocks heading into 2018 when they really shouldn’t be because they simply were lucky in close games last year and were really closer to a 6-7 or 7-6 team rather than a 9-4 one.  They do have 14 starters back and return some key playmakers, but they should not be 29.5-point favorites here in the opener. 

That’s especially the case when you consider South Carolina won’t be able to help but overlook Coastal Carolina.  They have their ‘game of the year’ on deck next week hosting Georgia.  They will want to make sure that everyone is healthy for that game, which means they will likely pull the starters or limit their snaps at the first opportunity they get.  They are just looking to win this game, not win it by margin.  Bet Coastal Carolina Saturday.

20* Colorado State/Colorado CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -7.5 

The Colorado Buffaloes won the Pac-12 South in 2016 despite being picked by most outlets to finish last. Head coach Mike MacIntyre always gets the most out of his teams.  They were due for some regression last year, and they did at 5-7, but still came within one win of making a bowl but lost their final three games.  They had just 12 returning starters last year, including only 3 on defense. 

I realize they only have 10 returning starters in 2018, but this is actually a better team than the ’17 version. I love the offense led by Steven Montez, a junior who threw for 2,975 yards and 18 touchdowns with nine interceptions, while also rushing for 338 yards and three scores.  The offense boasts nine junior and senior starters and will be better than what you would expect for having just four returning starters. 

Improvement will come from a defense that returns six starters, including each of the top three tacklers from a year ago.  This unit slipped big-time last year going from nine returning starters in ’16 to just three in ’17.  But they still only allowing 28.2 points per game, a respectable number considering all they had to replace.  This should now be one of the better stop units in the Pac-12 again. 

Colorado State is one of the single-least experienced team in FBS, ranking #130 in terms of returning experience.  They have just nine starters and 39 lettermen returning.  They lost QB Nick Stevens (3,799 yards, 29 TD), leading rusher Dalyn Dawkins (1,399 yards, 8 TD) and leading receiver Michael Gallup (100 receptions, 1,413 yards, 7 TD) on offense.  Defensively, they have just five starters back. 

I think you saw everything you needed to know about how bad Colorado State is going to be this season in their opener against Hawaii on Saturday.  They were favored by 17 over a Hawaii team that brought back just 9 starters this season.  They trailed 37-7 as their offense couldn’t get anything going against an awful Hawaii defense.  And by the time they did get their offense going, it was too late as they lost 34-43.  Their defense gave up 617 total yards to the Warriors. 

Colorado is 8-2 in its last 10 meetings with Colorado State in Denver.  Those eight wins have come by an average of 16 points per game.  The Rams were better the last two seasons than they will be this season, yet the Buffaloes crushed them 44-7 in 2016 and 17-3 in 2017.   

Colorado State is at a disadvantage here having to play on a short week after facing Hawaii on Saturday,  Meanwhile, the Buffaloes had all offseason to prepare for this one, and now have some actual game film to do so all week.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Colorado State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Bet Colorado Friday. 

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Utah State/Michigan State UNDER 51.5 

I expect a defensive battle tonight between Utah State and Michigan State in the season opener for both teams.  Both squads have experienced defenses returning, which will be the strength of both teams in 2018. 

Michigan State went 10-3 last year despite averaging just 24.5 points per game.  That’s because they won a lot of close games and their defense was tremendous, giving up just 20.0 points and 298 yards per game despite having just four starters back on D last year.  Now the Spartans have 9 starters and 10 of their top 11 tacklers back on defense and will have one of the best stop units in the country. 

Utah State gave up 26.9 points per game last season with just 5 starters back on defense.  Now they have 9 starters and 19 of their top 21 tacklers back on defense and will have one of the best stop units in the Mountain West.  This should be one of Matt Wells’ best defenses yet as he enters his 6th season wit the Aggies.  In his first three years, they surrendered just 339.6 yards per game.  It’s the most returning experience he’s had on any defense yet. 

Utah State’s offense isn’t anything special, either.  The Aggies played two Power 5 teams last year and managed just 10 points against Wisconsin and 10 points against Wake Forest.  Both teams have a lot of experience returning on offense as well, but that’s not necessarily a good thing considering both offenses were sub-par a year ago. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game that features both teams having 8 or more defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 42-12 (77.8%) over the last five seasons.  Michigan State is 9-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Wake Forest/Tulane Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Wake Forest -6.5 

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons just get no respect.  They went 8-5 last season and 8-3-2 ATS in their 13 games.  Dave Clawson has now gotten the Demon Deacons to back-to-back bowl games and enters his 5th season in Winston-Salem. 

Clawson has 14 returning starters this season.  He has eight starters back from an offense that set a school record with 454 points last year and averaged 35.3 points and 466 yards per game.  They were competitive in every game last season due to the offense and did not get beat by more than 14 points once all season. 

The offense is led by an offensive line that returns all five starters and a whopping 132 career starts.  This will be one of the best units in the ACC.  Each of the top two receivers are back from last year in Great Dortch (53 receptions, 722 yards, 9 TD) and Scotty Washington (45, 711, 3 TD), as is leading rusher Matt Colburn (904 yards, 7 TD).  That will help ease the transition of the new quarterback.

Wake Forest does have only six starters back on defense, but should be improved from a unit that gave up 28.3 points per game last season with just five starters back.  Their weakness last year was against the pass as they gave up 272 yards per game through the air.  But that won’t be a problem against Tulane, which runs an option attack.  And the Demon Deacons have a huge advantage getting to prepare all offseason for the option. 

I like what Willie Fritz is doing at Tulane.  He enters his 3rd season here from a team that went 5-7 last year and fell just a few yards shy of beating SMU in the season finale and making a bowl game.  Fritz has 14 starters back and the Green Wave should be competitive again against most AAC teams, but this is a different story here against one of the most underrated teams in the ACC. 

With nine starters back on offense, the Green Wave should be able to match or exceed last year’s 27.5 PPG in which they had eight starters back.  But they do lose leading rusher Montreal Hilliard (1,091 yards, 12 TD).  QB Jonathan Banks is back to run the offense and should be able to have a decent senior season, though he competed just 56.6% of his passes last year and accuracy will always be an issue for him. 

The reason I really love Wake Forest is because I believe their high-powered offense will score at will against this suspect Tulane defense.  The Green Wave return just 5 starters on defense from a unit that gave up 29.2 points and 436 yards per game last season.  This defense is clearly worse off than it was a year ago as they lose their top three playmakers in Rae Juan Marbley, Jarrod Franklin and Parry Nickerson (6 INT).  The lose 3.5 defensive line starters and 7 of their top 12 tacklers. 

The Demon Deacons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Wake Forest is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.  Tulane is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. ACC opponents.  They are losing by 27.7 points per game in this situation.  The last time Tulane hosted a Power 5 team to open the season they lost to ACC opponent Duke 37-7 back in 2015.  Bet Wake Forest Thursday. 

15* NMSU/Minnesota BTN No-Brainer on Minnesota -20 

Unfortunately, I took New Mexico State +4 against Wyoming in their opener.  I couldn’t have been more wrong.  But I’m willing to realize my mistakes and correct them.  After watching just how ugly New Mexico State looked against a mediocre Wyoming squad, I have no doubt they are going to have many of the same issues against Minnesota Thursday night. 

New Mexico State had negative yards on offense in the first half against Wyoming last week and themselves trailing 15-0.  It didn’t get much better in the second half as they trailed 29-0 before getting a garbage TD in the final seconds to lose 29-7.  They were outgained 450 to 135 for the game, or by 315 total yards. 

Wyoming ran wild on the NMSU defense for 313 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry.  Now the Aggies must play on a short week having just four days to prepare for Minnesota, another team that loves to run the football as they averaged 182 rushing yards per game last season.  The Gophers should be able to move the ball on the ground at will on a tired NMSU defense. 

PJ Fleck enters his second season at Minnesota.  He has more of his players in place to take on bigger roles this season.  He has 14 returning starters as well and this should be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten after a 5-7 campaign in his first season. 

The Gophers can only be better offensively as they return seven starters, their leading rusher, top two receivers and four starters along the offensive line.  The problem last year was QB play as it was atrocious.  That means it can only get better, and Fleck true freshman recruit Zack Annexstad will get the first crack at the job.  He beat out fellow freshman Tanner Morgan, who many expected to win the job. 

Fleck turned an inexperienced defense that returned just five starters last year into one of the Big Ten’s best units.  The Gophers only allowed 22.8 points and 347 yards per game.  Now they return seven starters, led by leading tackler Thomas Barber (115 tackles, 10.5 for loss) at linebacker.  This is an experienced unit that is expected to have nine junior or senior starters.  One of the sophomores is Antoine Winfield, who got a medical redshirt and will be one of the best safeties in the Big Ten. 

Minnesota should be able to shut down a New Mexico State offense that lost its top three playmakers from a year ago.  They lost the school’s second all-time leading passer in Tyler Rogers from a passing offense that ranked 3rd in the country last season.  They also lost 1,000-yard receiver Jaleel Scott (1,079 yards, 9 TD) and star RB Larry Rose, who accounted for 1,471 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage last year.  It was clear NMSU misses this trio when they managed just 7 points and 135 total yards against Wyoming last week. 

New Mexico State is 10-30-1 ATS in its last 41 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Aggies are 3-15 in their last 18 road openers, and 0-12 in their last 12 against Power 5 schools.  The Gophers have won 19 of their last 23 home openers, and five of their last six with their only loss coming to #2 TCU 17-23 as 16-point underdogs in 2015.  

NMSU having to play on a short week off a very physical game and against another physical opponent here is such a huge schedule disadvantage for them.  That’s why I’m willing to lay this many points with the Gophers.  Doug Martin is 0-11 ATS after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached.  Take Minnesota Thursday.

20* Wyoming/New Mexico State ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +4 

New Mexico State went to a bowl game for the first time since 1960 last year.  Not only did the Aggies get to a bowl, they actually upset Utah State 26-20 in overtime.  Head coach Doug Martin has done a tremendous job of turning this program around as he enters his 6th season here. 

Now the Aggies return 15 starters and 49 lettermen in 2018 while losing only 13 lettermen.  The strength of this team will be a defense that gave up their fewest points per game since 2003 last year.  They have nine starters and 10 of their top 11 tacklers back on D.  They were an attacking D last year that set a school record with 43 sacks.  Frank Spaziani, the former Boston College head coach, is a big reason for the turnaround.  He enters his second season running the defense. 

There are questions for the Aggies offensively as they return 6 starts and lose their top three playmakers.  However, they have a junior back in Jason Huntley that is ready to take over for Larry Rose.  Huntley averaged 6.0 YPC last season compared to 5.1 for Rose.  Four of their top five receivers are back, so that helps soften the loss of 1,000-yard receiver Jaleel Scott. 

The biggest loss is QB Tyler Rogers, who was third in the country at 334.7 passing yards per game last season.  However, the Aggies signed JUCO transfer Matt Romero in the offseason.  He threw for 5,873 yards and 49 touchdowns over two seasons at Palomar College in California.  It’s a great fit for Romero, who ran the exact same offense at Palomar.  And six offensive linemen with starting experience return this season, helping ease Romero’s transition. 

Wyoming does have a lot of experience back as well with 17 returning starters, but many of those players are hurt.  Two projected starters along the offensive line will be out with injuries.  WR CJ Johnson, who led the team with 7 TD receptions last year, is out.  LB Cassh Mauluia (74 tackles last year) is also out.  So technically, they have just 13 healthy starters for Game 1 from last year. 

And the biggest loss is QB Josh Allen, who was taken as a first-round draft pick of the Buffalo Bills.  They even traded up to get him.  I know his numbers weren’t great last year, but he’s the biggest reason the Cowboys were able to make bowl games each of the past two seasons.  You simply don’t replace a talent like Allen at a school as small as Wyoming.  The Cowboys will now be starting a freshman QB this year. 

New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. MWC opponents.  The Aggies are 18-9 ATS in all games over the past two seasons.  Bets on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (New Mexico State) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference game are 67-27 (71.3%) ATS since 1992.  Wyoming is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games as a road favorite.  The Aggies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday. 

20* Alabama/Georgia National Championship No-Brainer on Alabama -175 

I backed Alabama -1.5 as my 25* College Bowl Game of the Year in a 24-6 win over Clemson in the first round of the college football playoffs.  I’m not about to buck them now as they still fit many of the same reasons I backed them against Clemson. 

I thought Alabama came into the four-team playoff grossly underrated for the first time ever.  It’s because they were the No. 4 seed and barely got in after not winning the SEC Championship thanks to their loss to Auburn in the regular season finale.  They actually came in as an underdog by perception because they were the No. 4 seed going against the No. 1 seed Clemson. 

Let’s just think back to the National Championship last year.  If Alabama hadn’t gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game to lose to Clemson, they would be going for their 3rd straight national title.  And if that was the case, which it easily could be, Alabama would be upwards of a 7-point favorite or more here against Georgia.  Instead they are only 3.5-point favorites and -175 on the money line, which I think is the better bet in this matchup in case they do win by 3.  But I’m confident they will win this game. 

Alabama has the best defense in the country, and that showed in limiting Clemson to just 6 points and 188 total yards last week.  They match up very well with Georgia, a predominant running team that only averages 173 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide only give up 92 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry, with the latter being the best mark in the entire country.  The only teams the Crimson Tide struggle against are ones with mobile quarterbacks, and Jake Fromm doesn’t fit that category.  He has rushed for just 94 yards on the season and 2.0 per carry. 

I think the situation is better for Alabama having more time to get ready for this game.  They played in New Orleans, made easy work of Clemson, and have a short trip up to Atlanta for the National Championship.  Meanwhile, Georgia played all the way out in California and as a result will have the tougher travel schedule.  They also needed to exert more effort as they went to double-overtime in a 54-48 thriller.  And I think the Bulldogs are just happy to be here, while Alabama is on a mission to make up for that devastating loss in the national title game last season. 

Alabama has been favored in 112 of its 113 games.  The only time it wasn’t a favorite was as a 1.5-point underdog at Georgia in 2015.  Well, the Crimson Tide rolled the Bulldogs 38-10 in that game.  Rarely ever do we get to back them as small as -175 money line favorites.  This is basically free money in my opinion because they aren’t going to lose this game. 

My favorite trend in this game is that Nick Saban is 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS when facing his former assistants.  This is a big brother, little brother phenomenon.  Saban has won by 14-plus points in all 11 games and by an average of a whopping 29 points per game in this spot.  Kirby Smart will be overmatched in this matchup. 

Saban has also had great success in games that are expected to be low scoring, which this game is considering the total is only 45 points.  Alabama is 45-19 ATS in its last 64 games with a total set of 50 points or less under Saban.  This goes back to the point I made before that the only teams that give the Crimson Tide trouble are teams with dual-threat quarterbacks when shootouts are the expectation.  This game will be a grind-it-out, hard-hitting game that plays right into Alabama’s hands.  Saban and company live for these kinds of games. 

Saban is 21-11 ATS vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Alabama.  His teams are winning these matchups by 15.1 points per game on average.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  I think we are getting a nice discount here with the Crimson Tide on the money line because a very large amount of people who are betting Georgia are betting them on the money line.  Bet Alabama on the Money Line.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -1.5 

Nick Saban with revenge and extra time to prepare.  Sign me up.  The Crimson Tide get a chance to avenge their 35-31 loss to Clemson in the National Championship last year.  I fully expect them to take advantage of their opportunity, and this time around they won’t have to deal with Deshaun Watson. 

This is the third straight year these teams will meet in the playoffs.  The Crimson Tide were 6-point favorites two years ago and 6.5-point favorites last year.  So the fact that they are only 1.5-point favorites in the grudge match shows that there is some line value here. 

Let’s look at those last two meetings.  Alabama led 45-33 two years ago with two minutes left before Clemson got a meaningless touchdown with 12 seconds left to cover as 6.5-point dogs.  Then last year, Alabama led 31-28 with only two minutes left, only to watch Clemson score on the game’s final play on a pick play that wasn’t called to win 35-31. 

That sick loss has sat in Saban and the Crimson Tide’s stomach for a full year now, and they can’t wait to get the taste out of their mouths.  And they won’t have to deal with Watson this time.  Kelly Bryant is a good quarterback, but he’s certainly no Watson and isn’t battle-tested in these big games like Watson was. 

I think Alabama actually comes into the four-team playoff undervalued because of the fact that they are the No. 4 seed and they ended their season with a 14-26 loss at Auburn, which was their only loss of the season.  It’s the first time in a long time I can remember this team being as undervalued as they are right now. 

Conversely, Clemson comes into this game overvalued due to being the No. 1 seed.  They were last seen beating a banged-up Miami team 38-3 in the ACC Championship.  I think that Saban will feed off of the fact that they are the higher seed and cement in his players’ minds that they are the underdogs, despite the fact that Vegas disagrees, and I agree with Vegas. 

The Crimson Tide were banged up on defense down the stretch this season, but they are expected to get several key players back along the defensive front seven and in the secondary for this game.  They should be about as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season.  And I’d put this defense up against anyone. 

Alabama gives up just 11.5 points per game, 258 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 27 points, 382 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Clemson has an elite defense as well, but it’s not as good as this Alabama unit when you compare the numbers. 

Alabama also has the edge on offense, and it’s not really even that close.  Clemson has taken a big step back on offense this season.  Yards per play is the most important stat in my opinion.  Alabama averages 6.9 yards per play against teams that give up 5.7 per play, while Clemson averages just 6.0 yards per play against teams that give up 5.7 per play.  So essentially the Crimson Tide are 0.9 yards per play better than Clemson offensively. 

Saban is 15-4 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread as the coach of Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are 42-21 ATS in their last 63 road games following one or more consecutive ATS losses.  Alabama is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on fieldturf.  The Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on fieldturf.  Bet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Monday. 

15* Georgia/Oklahoma Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma +2.5 

The Big 12 has put together an impressive showing in these bowl games with a 5-2 record thus far.  And Oklahoma was the class of the Big 12, and it wasn’t really even close.  Once again the Sooners won the conference and will get another shot at the four-team playoff here, and they’ll want to redeem themselves after losing to Clemson in their last appearance. 

Now they have the best quarterback in the country in Baker Mayfield.  He leads a high-octane Oklahoma offense that is putting up 44.9 points per game, 583 yards per game and 8.4 yards per play.  The Sooners are scoring 17 points per game, averaging 181 yards per game and 3.1 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average this season.  This offense is simply unstoppable. 

TCU has a comparable defense to Georgia.  The Horned Frogs were one of the best defensive teams in the country this season.  And Oklahoma beat TCU 38-20 in the regular season while putting up 533 total yards.  Then they backed up that win with a 41-17 win over the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 Championship Game.  Georgia isn’t going to be able to stop Mayfield and company, either. 

I think Georgia benefited from an extremely soft schedule this season.  The SEC East was arguably the worst division of all Power 5 conferences.  And they draw Mississippi State and Auburn from the SEC West, and actually lost to Auburn 17-40 in the regular season.  The Bulldogs were able to get revenge in the SEC Championship against Auburn to get into the four-team playoff, but it doesn’t mask the fact that their schedule was rather easy this year outside of a 1-1 split with Auburn. 

Oklahoma is 4-0 in its last four games against SEC opponents, which includes a bowl win over Alabama a few years back.  The Sooners have been able to step up to the plate against the better teams, and they have been able to handle the SEC.  That’s evidence by the fact that they are 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, and a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 75% over the last two years.  Roll with Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. 

20* UCF/Auburn Peach Bowl No-Brainer on UCF +10 

Let’s take a look at the history of how these Group of 5 teams have done against the Power 5 opponents dating back to the BCS era and currently the New Year’s 6.  In the last 19 meetings, the Power 5 team has been favored 16 times.  Well, the Group of 5 team has actually gone 13-6 straight up in those 19 meetings. 

I think there’s an obvious explanation for the success of the Group of 5 team holding that 13-6 straight up edge.  The Group of 5 team is almost always max motivated, as will be the case for UCF in this game as they are 12-0 and feel like they belong in the four-team playoff. 

Conversely, the Power 5 team is not motivated.  It’s a lose-lose situation for them.  If they win the game they were expected to win anyways.  If they lose the game, it looks really bad.  And that Power 5 team likely just missed out on the four-team playoff or a bigger bowl game dating back to the BCS era. 

That is the case for Auburn here.  The Tigers would have made the four-team playoff had they beaten Georgia for a second time in the SEC Championship Game.  Instead, they lost that game and now have to settle for the Peach Bowl.  They will still be disappointed that they aren’t in the playoff, and they won’t be fully motivated for this game. 

UCF has made me a lot of money this season, going 12-0 SU & 7-3-1 ATS.  The Knights were really undervalued early in the year going 5-0 ATS in their last first five games while winning each of their first seven games by double-digits.  I think the fact that they went just 2-3 ATS in their final five games has them undervalued. 

The schedule got tougher and the pressure mounted down the stretch.  They beat South Florida 49-42 to get in the AAC Championship Game, then had to face a revenge-minded Memphis team that they had beaten 40-13 earlier in the year.  Memphis gave them all they wanted in a 62-55 overtime win. 

I think the experience from those two close games will pay dividends for them in this game against Auburn, which I expect to be close as well.  And instead of having a huge target on their backs like they did during their 12-0 run, they get to be the hunters in this game.  All the pressure is on Auburn, a big-name team from the SEC with the target on their backs in this one. 

I also love the fact that Scott Frost has remained with the team and will coach this game.  He will keep his assistants with him before they move on full time to Nebraska after this game.  It shows a lot about the character of Frost in wanting to see this unbeaten 13-0 season through. 

"There's some unusual circumstances, but our staff is completely committed and we're going to do everything we can for this football team," Frost said. "It's an honor to be invited to this game. These players have poured their hearts out to accomplish a lot this year."

The Knights lead the nation in scoring offense at 49.4 points per game.  They also have an elite defense, giving up just 25.2 points per game.  They won’t be overmatched athletically as Frost did a tremendous job of recruiting athletes that can compete with SEC teams.  The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Take UCF  in the Peach Bowl Monday. 

15* Wisconsin/Miami Orange Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Miami +6 

No Power 5 team played a softer schedule than Wisconsin this season.  The Badgers played in the weak Big Ten West Division and took advantage.  That is evident in the fact that they were double-digit favorites in 11 of their 12 regular season games this year. 

We saw that weak schedule catch up to them in the Big Ten Championship in a 21-27 loss to Ohio State, which is also a team that I think is overrated.  But that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Badgers were outgained by 151 yards by the Buckeyes and should have lost by more. 

Now the Badgers will have to deal with either the first or second-best team they have faced all season in Miami.  The Hurricanes went through the gauntlet this season in the ACC, and they also beat Notre Dame 41-8 out of conference.  I think they come into this game undervalued due to losing their final two games to Pittsburgh and Clemson on the road after their 10-0 start. 

I like this matchup for the Hurricanes.  Their front seven is loaded with athletes that will be able to slow down Wisconsin’s running game.  The Hurricanes only allow 146 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  And they have a ball-hawking secondary, forcing 22 turnovers in their last seven games.  That could be a problem for Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook, who has thrown 15 interceptions this year. 

Wisconsin didn’t handle the most athletic team they’ve seen this season in Ohio State very well.  They gave up 449 total yards to the Buckeyes and were held to just 298 total yards themselves.  They gave up 238 rushing yards to Ohio State.  I have no doubt Miami’s athletes are going to be a problem in this game on both sides of the ball for the slower Badgers. 

I also question Wisconsin’s motivation in this game.  It’s the second straight year that the Badgers have had to play in a second-tier bowl game.  Had they beaten Ohio State, they would have made the four-team playoff.  After letting that opportunity slip through their grasps, I don’t think they’ll be nearly as motivated to win the Orange Bowl. 

This is going to be a home game for the Hurricanes being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.  That is a huge advantage for their team as this has become a rabid fan base once again now that Mark Richt has put the program back on the map.  And Richt has proven to be a quality coach with extra time to prepare, going 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in his career in bowl games. 

"It means a lot," defensive lineman Kendrick Norton said. "Obviously, it's going to be like a home game for us, so we will be comfortable. Miami hasn't been (in the Orange Bowl) for a while, so we have a lot of pride in getting there and doing well.”

The Hurricanes went 7-0 at home this season and outscored opponents by 18.0 points per game.  Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  I believe the wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Miami Saturday.

20* Washington/Penn State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State -1.5 

Penn State is good enough to be a playoff team.  Their two losses this season came by a combined 4 points to Ohio State and Michigan State both on the road.  In fact, they have now lost three games over the past year and a half by a combined 7 points when you factor in their 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl last year.  I would argue that they are the best team in the Big Ten right now. 

The Nittany Lions are loaded on offense with Trace McSorley, Saquon Barkley and four receivers with 40-plus receptions this season.  They average 41.6 points per game.  They also have an elite defense that gives up 15.5 points per game.  I think the Nittany Lions are the more battle-tested team playing a much tougher schedule in the Big Ten East division. 

I’m way down on the Pac-12 in these bowl games.  I’ve faded several Pac-12 teams with success up to this point.  Washington played a very soft schedule this season and isn’t battle-tested.  The Huskies lost to both Arizona State and Stanford on the road this season, managing just 7 points and 230 total yards against ASU and 22 points and 315 total yards against Stanford. 

And that’s the problem for the Huskies and why I don’t trust them.  Quarterback Jake Browning has come up short time and time again in big games.  He was off the mark against Stanford and ASU this year, and he was overwhelmed against both USC and Alabama last year.  He has thrown for only 2,544 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season. 

McSorley has upped his play in the biggest games with what he did against USC last year and at Ohio State this year on the road, leading the Nittany Lions to 49 and 38 points against those two teams, respectively.  He has accounted for 37 total touchdowns this season with 26 passing and 11 rushing.  I simply trust McSorley more than Browning at the all-important QB position in what is otherwise a pretty evenly matched game elsewhere on the field. 

The Nittany Lions are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  They have been extremely undervalued for two straight seasons now.  James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more over conference opponents as the coach of Penn State.  Franklin is 7-0 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Nittany Lions.  Franklin is 9-0 ATS off three straight conference wins as the coach of Penn State.  Take these three 100% never lost systems straight to the bank today.  Bet Penn State Saturday. 

20* USC/Ohio State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on USC +8.5 

This is a classic case of Urban Meyer and Ohio State getting way too much respect in another bowl game.  There’s no way this line should be 8.5 or even over a touchdown.  It should be close to Ohio State -3, and I wouldn’t be surprised if USC won this game outright. 

I question the Buckeyes’ motivation a little in this game because they thought they did enough to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big Ten.  But a 16-31 home loss to Oklahoma and a 24-55 road loss at Iowa as 18-point favorites did them in, and I 100% agree with the committee they aren’t one of the best four teams in the country.  They have to be deflated a little playing in this second-tier bowl game. 

USC, on the other hand, was never going to make the four-team playoff after losing two games to Washington State and Notre Dame both on the road midseason.  But I like the way this team fought back by going 5-0 over their final five games.  I think they’re more than happy to be playing in the Cotton Bowl after beating Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship because they were never talked about for the four-team playoff down the stretch. 

It seemed like every time Ohio State took a step up in class this season they did not play well.  They lost to Oklahoma and Iowa as mentioned before.  They needed to erase a 19-point deficit at home to beat Penn State 39-38.  They trailed Michigan most the way before winning 31-20.  And they couldn’t put away Wisconsin in a 27-21 win in the Big Ten Championship.  I would argue USC is the best team they have faced since Oklahoma, so I don’t know how oddsmakers can expect them to beat the Trojans by more than a touchdown. 

USC has played Big Ten teams each of the last three seasons in bowls.  They went 2-1 with their only loss coming 21-23 to Wisconsin.  They beat Penn State 52-49 last year in the Rose Bowl, the same Penn State team that had beaten Ohio State.  They racked up 575 total yards on the Nittany Lions behind 453 passing from Sam Darnold.  He’ll be ultra-motivated to put on another lasting impression and improve his draft stock.  He threw 14 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions over his final seven games this season. 

The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They padded their stats against weak Big Ten teams this year.  Now they take a massive step up in class in the Cotton Bowl.  Bet USC Friday. 

15* Michigan State/Washington State Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Michigan State +1 

This line is moving toward Michigan State for good reason.  Washington State opened as a 4.5-point favorite and now is only a 1-point favorite and even underdogs in some spots.  I totally agree with this move as I currently lock in Michigan State as a 1-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl. 

For starters, Mark Dantonio is 17-4 ATS in his last 21 games as an underdog.  I realize the Spartans may not be dogs by the time this game goes off.  But it’s still worth noting and just goes to show how he has been one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He almost always exceeds expectations. 

That was certainly the case this season as nothing was expected from Michigan State after they went just 3-9 last year.  They returned only eight starters from that squad.  It was a young team, and Dantonio worked his magic by getting the Spartans to 9-3.  Now they have a chance for their fourth 10-win season in the past five years and will be highly motivated to get it. 

It wasn’t a fluky 9-3, either.  Michigan State actually outgained 10 of its 12 opponents this season with he only exceptions both coming on the road at Ohio State and Michigan, and they beat Michigan 14-10 as 13-point dogs.  They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game on the season.  Their defense has been very good, giving up just 298 yards per game. 

I really question Washington State’s motivation coming into this game.  The Cougars had a chance to get to the Pac-12 Championship in their season finale against Washington for a second consecutive season.  And for a second straight year, they fell flat on their faces with a 14-41 loss at 9.5-point underdogs.  Luke Falk was overwhelmed and played one of the worst games of his career with 3 interceptions.  After playing for such high stakes and coming up short, I can’t see the Cougars being all that motivated to play Michigan State here. 

Now Falk’s job gets even tougher due to the losses of his two best receivers in Tavares Martin Jr. and Isaiah Johnson0Mack, who have both been dismissed from the team heading into the bowl game.  These two combined for 130 receptions, 1,386 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns this season.  The fact that both aren’t playing helps explain this line move in Michigan State’s favor. 

Washington State hasn’t fared very well in the three bowl games under Mike Leach over the past four seasons.  Despite being favored in all three games, the Cougars have gone just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They lost as 5-point favorites to Colorado State in 2013, barely beat Miami 20-14 as 3-point favorites in 2015, and lost 12-17 to Minnesota as 10-point favorites last year.  The Spartans are by far the best bowl team that the Cougars will have faced in the Leach era. 

The Spartans have been impressive in bowl games over the last six years under Dantonio.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS despite being underdogs in all five.  They lost to Alabama in the four-team playoff two years ago, but upset Georgia, TCU, Stanford and Baylor in their previous four bowl games. 

Dantonio is 6-0 ATS in road games off a double-digit road win as the coach of Michigan State.  The Spartans are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 150 or fewer yards in their previous game.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Michigan State Thursday. 

20* VA Tech/Oklahoma State Camping World Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma State -4 

The Oklahoma State Cowboys were a national title contender coming into the season.  So their 9-3 record is a bit of a disappointment, but it also has them coming into the bowl season undervalued.  This team is among the Top 10 in the country talent-wise, and I think the price is cheap here as only 4-point favorites over the VA Tech Hokies in the Camping World Bowl because of it. 

The Cowboys were a very public team after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with three blowout victories.  But they couldn’t live up to the expectations after that, going just 3-6 ATS over their final nine games as they were consistently laying big numbers that they couldn’t cover.  But now they are in the type of price range that’s easy for them to cover as they basically just have to win the game by a touchdown or more here. 

The three losses came to Oklahoma, TCU and Kansas State at home, and they were competitive in all three games.  Most impressively is the fact that Oklahoma State went 6-0 on the road.  The Cowboys averaged 42.7 points and 532 yards per game on the road while giving up just 25.5 points and 345 yards per game on the highway.  They outscored teams by 17.2 points per game and outgunned them by 187 yards per game on the road this season. 

Everyone knows about Oklahoma State’s high-powered offense that averages 46.2 points, 576 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play on the season against teams that allow 28.7 points, 420 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They are topping their opponent’s season averages by 17.5 points per game, 156 yards per game and 1.4 per play.  Mason Rudolph is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, completing 65% of his passes for 4,553 yards with 35 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions while averaging 10.0 per attempt. 

But most folks don’t realize how improved Oklahoma State’s defense is this season.  The Cowboys are allowing only 400 yards per game and 5.5 per play against teams that average 415 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  Their defense fell off toward the end of the year against Oklahoma, and then with hangover games against Iowa State and Kansas State.  But this defense is loaded with speed and talent and will be re-focused for this bowl game against Virginia Tech. 

The Hokies have a great defense, there’s no question, but their offense is just average.  They score 28.7 points pre game and average 5.4 yards per play against teams that give up 5.6 per play.  They struggle to throw the football, and they are stubborn trying to run the ball.  They average 44 rushing attempts per game, but only 167 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. 

Virginia Tech’s offense won’t be able to keep up with Mason Rudolph and company in this one.  That’s especially the case now that they are going to be without two of their best playmakers in WR Cam Phillips and RB Travon McMillian.  Phillips is the leading receiver on the team by a landslide with 71 receptions for 964 yards and 7 touchdowns, so his loss is huge.  McMillian leads the team in rushing and is a significant loss as well. 

Oklahoma State is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games after scoring 50 points or more in its last game.  Mike Gundy is 19-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Gundy is 15-4 ATS after two straight games with 40 or more pass attempts as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday. 

20* Purdue/Arizona Foster Farms Bowl No-Brainer on Purdue +3.5 

Jeff Brohm seriously deserved coach of the year consideration for the job he did at Purdue this season.  He took a team that was 9-39 over the past four seasons and got them to 6-6 and a bowl game in the rugged Big Ten.  This team was undervalued all seasons with their 8-4 ATS record, and I think they remain undervalued as underdogs here to Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. 

What the Boilermakers did down the stretch shows how badly they wanted to make a bowl game.  They went 3-1 over their final four games, beating Illinois 29-10 at home, Iowa 24-15 as 6-point road underdogs, and Indiana 31-24 at home.  That Indiana game was a 31-10 blowout late in the fourth quarter before giving up two garbage touchdowns late.  And in their lone loss, they put up 438 total yards against a very good Northwestern team in a 13-23 road loss.  They outgained the Wildcats in that contest. 

So there’s no question that Purdue wants to be playing in this bowl game.  It will be their first bowl game since 2012 and only their third bowl appearance in the last 10 years.  And Brohm is 2-0 in his career in bowl games.  At Western Kentucky, they beat Memphis 51-31 as 7-point favorites in 2016 and USF 45-35 as 2-point favorites in 2015.  I trust Brohm and his players to come forth with a big effort in this game Wednesday. 

Brohm was known for his offense at Western Kentucky, and while they do have a solid offense that averages 5.6 yards per play against teams that only allow 5.3 per play, the real improvement on this team has come on defense.  The Boilermakers only allow 19.3 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 28.6 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are holding opponents to 9.3 points and 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  That’s the sign of an elite defense. 

I think Arizona remains overvalued due to the Khalil Tate factor.  He has taken the college football world by storm.  And he started off tremendous against some bad teams, but then teams got film on him and the Wildcats struggled down the stretch.  Arizona went 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS over its final four games with its only win coming against terrible Oregon State.  The Wildcats lost all three games by double-digits. 

No question Purdue has a massive edge on defense in this game.  And the matchup favors this Purdue defense because stopping Tate and the running game is the key.  The Boilermakers are equipped to do just that.  They give up just 132 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against opponents that average 174 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry on average.  They are holding teams to 42 yards and 0.9 per carry less than their season averages. 

Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They give up 34.1 points, 464 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play against teams that average 28 points, 420 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The Wildcats have allowed 37 or more points in six of their last eight games coming into this bowl game.  It’s a defense that cannot be trusted, and certainly one that can’t be trusted to lay points here. 

While Brohm is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in bowl games, Arizona head coach Rich Rodriquez has been terrible in bowl games.  Rodriquez is just 3-7 ATS in his career in bowl games.  Arizona barely beat New Mexico last year and barely beat Nevada a few years back.  The Wildcats lost when they took a step up in class in recent bowl games against Oklahoma State and Boise State.  And I think Purdue is a step up in class for them here.  The Wildcats are also 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.   

Rodriquez is 1-10 ATS in road games after three straight games where 60 or more points were scored in all games he has coached.  Brohm is 10-2 ATS versus good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached.  Arizona is 0-7 ATS in road games off two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Purdue is 6-0 ATS in road games off one or more straight overs over the last two years.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  These seven trends combine for a 47-3 system backing the Boilermakers.  Bet Purdue Wednesday.

15* Boston College/Iowa Pinstripe Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5 

Let’s just start out with the fact that Iowa is going to be highly motivated for a victory in this bowl game.  The Hawkeyes have lost five straight bowl games and really want to end that streak.  But there’s a reason they’ve lost five straight because they have been underdogs in all five against superior competition. 

The five losses have come to Oklahoma as 13-point dogs, LSU as 7-point dogs, Tennessee as 3-point dogs, Stanford as 6-point dogs and Florida as 3-point dogs.  Now they finally get to take a step down in class after a 7-5 season against 7-5 Boston College.  And they’re favored for a reason here because they are clearly the better team.  And these Iowa seniors will be motivated to taste their first bowl victory. 

Iowa closed it season with a 56-14 blowout at Nebraska.  Four of Iowa’s five losses this season came by single-digits, and the one exception was a loss at Wisconsin the week after their 55-24 win over Ohio State.  That was arguably the best win of the season of any team in college football against the Buckeyes, and it was clearly a massive letdown spot the next week against Wisconsin. 

Boston College had a very impressive season with one of the youngest teams in the country.  But a big reason for the Eagles’ success was freshman quarterback Anthony Brown.  This offense isn’t nearly as explosive without Brown’s dual-threat ability.  He has missed the final two games of the season. 

I think people will see that Boston College blew out its final opponents so the Brown loss isn’t that big.  But one of the wins was against one of the worst teams in college football in UConn 39-16, and the other was against a Syracuse team that was without starting quarterback Eric Dungey by a final of 42-14.  UConn and Syracuse have terrible defenses, and this will be a big step up in class for backup QB Darius Wade against this Iowa defense. 

Boston College only averages 163 passing yards per game and 5.7 per attempt.  So the key to stopping the Eagles is stopping their running game, which averages 224 yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  That makes this a perfect matchup for head coach Kirk Ferentz and this Iowa defense.  His teams have always thrived against power-running teams, and that will show in this next trend. 

Ferentz is 36-15 ATS versus good rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of Iowa.  The Hawkeyes gave up just 19.9 points per game this season, and they allowed just 142 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry in the rugged Big Ten.  Iowa is 55-28 ATS in its last 83 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games.  The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten opponents.  Boston College is 1-8 ATS in its last nine December games.  Take Iowa in the Pinstripe Bowl Wednesday. 

15* Kansas State/UCLA Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on UNDER 60.5 

Josh Rosen, the potential No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, is doubtful to play in this game with a concussion.  The line moving from K-State -2.5 to -6.5 indicates he is not going to play.  That completely changes the complexion of this game, and I think the UNDER is a great beat tonight. 

Rosen means everything to this offense.  He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 3,717 yards with 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season while averaging 8.2 per attempt.  Backup Devon Modster hasn’t been nearly as effective in spot duty for him.  Look for the Bruins to go to more of a run-first approach without him. 

Running the ball certainly isn’t a strength of the Bruins.  They are averaging just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  Kansas State been tremendous at stopping the run this season, holding opponents to just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. 

The Wildcats once again feature a methodical offense that likes to churn yards out on the ground.  They only average 182 passing yards per game.  They rush 39 times per game for 187 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  They will keep the ball on the ground in this game and churn out yards and burn clock. 

Kansas State is also likely to go with a redshirt freshman at quarterback due to injuries to starter Jesse Ertz and backup Alex Delton.  He went 10-of-21 for 152 yards in the season finale against Iowa State.  He isn’t likely to handle this big stage that well, and the game plan will be conservative with him under center.   

Plays on the UNDER on neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (UCLA) - off a home win against a conference rival against an opponent off a win against a conference rival are 28-9 (75.7%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Wildcats last five December games.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

25* College Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Utah/West Virginia UNDER 57 

I expect a low-scoring affair between Utah and West Virginia today.  The biggest reason is that West Virginia is going to be without starting quarterback Will Grier, who means everything to their offense.  They will have to go to a more run-first approach without him. 

Grier was one of the better quarterbacks in the country this season.  He completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while averaging 9.0 per attempt.  Backup Chris Chugunov completes just 54.8 percent of his passes and averages 6.6 per attempt in limited action in Grier’s place. 

Utah boasts an elite defense once again this season that gives up just 23.9 points, 353 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 29.5 points, 405 yards and 5.8 per play.  They are stout up front and will be able to limit WVU’s run-heavy attack in this one. 

Utah also insists on running the football more than it throws it.  But the Utes have struggled to run the ball this year.  They average 39 attempts for 161 yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that give up 188 yards per game and 4.6 per carry on the ground.  They are a below-average running team. 

Utah is 29-10 UNDER in its last 39 road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Utah last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Mountaineers last eight December games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Houston/Fresno State Hawai’i Bowl BAILOUT on OVER 49 

I think the fact that both Houston and Fresno State were heavy under teams during the regular season is giving us value to pull the trigger on the OVER in the Hawai’i Bowl.  The Cougars went 2-9 to the under this season, while the Bulldogs went 3-9-1 to the under this year. 

But we’ve seen this story in bowl games before.  Offenses pull out new tricks with all of that extra time to prepare, and I think that will certainly be the case here.  Both head coaches in Jeff Tedford and Major Applewhite are great offensive minds who got their jobs because of the work they’ve done on the offensive side of the football. 

Fresno State made its run to a trip to the MWC title game after quarterback Marcus McMaryion took over the reigns after the non-conference portion of the schedule.  He went on to complete 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards with 14 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions while averaging 7.9 per attempt.  He also rushed for 250 yards and two scores on 5.1 per carry. 

The same thing happened for Houston once D’Eriq King took over at quarterback four the final four games of the season.  He has completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 991 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.3 per attempt.  King also brings a big rushing element to the offense, rushing for 341 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.4 per carry.  He has 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards, including touchdowns of 61, 62 and 75 yards despite such limited action. 

Tedford is 17-5 OVER in non-conference road games in all games he has coached.  We’re seeing an average of 61.6 points per game on average in this spot.  The OVER is 12-5-1 in Bulldogs last 18 non-conference games.  Perfect conditions inside Aloha Stadium in Hawai’i will also help aid this OVER.  Bet the OVER in the Hawai’i Bowl Sunday.

20* Army/San Diego State Armed Forces Bowl ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -6.5 

Despite being 10-2 this season, I think the San Diego State Aztecs are actually being undervalued because they didn’t win the Mountain West.  But they basically gave the game away to Boise State, and they suffered a hangover the next week against Fresno State, the two teams that played in the Mountain West Championship. 

Rocky Long has done a great job of refocusing the Aztecs and getting them to finish the season strong following those two losses.  This is a team that beat both Arizona State and Stanford earlier in the season, and then they finishes the year by going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS over their final four games with four straight wins all by 19 points or more. 

Now Rocky Long gets extra time to prepare for Army’s triple-option.  I always like fading triple-option teams when their opponent has extra time to prepare.  And Long is used to facing triple-option teams having to play Air Force every season.  And boy do his defenses know how to stop them.  In his time at San Diego State, Long’s teams are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in 15 games against triple-option teams. 

I really question Army’s motivation in this bowl game.  They just upset Navy for a second consecutive year with a late touchdown to win 14-13.  That game was their Super Bowl, and they won’t nearly be as motivated to face San Diego State as they were to face Navy. 

Army was a very fortunate team this season, going 5-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  I don’t think the Black Knights are nearly as good as their 9-3 record would suggest.  And they played a much softer schedule than that of San Diego State.  Seven of the Aztecs’ 10 wins came by double-digits, while only four of Army’s nine wins came by double-digits, and those were against Fordham, UTEP, Rice and Air Force. 

Rocky Long’s teams always get after it defensively, and this year has been no exception.  They only give up 18.4 points, 299 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  They have been extremely good at stopping the run, allowing just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  That makes this an excellent matchup for their defense. 

San Diego State actually has one of the best offenses it has had in years this season.  The Aztecs average 30.4 points per game.  They are led by a ground attack that produces 253 yards per game and 5.5 per carry.  Army gives up 5.0 per carry, so this is also a good matchup for their offense.  Rashaad Penny, one of the most underrated players in college football, rushed for 2,027 yards and 19 touchdowns this season while averaging 7.4 per carry.  He’ll be primed for a big game in this one. 

The Aztecs have won their last two bowl games in blowout fashion with a 34-10 win over Houston as 4-point dogs in the Las Vegas Bowl last year, and a 42-7 win over Cincinnati as 2-point favorites in the Hawai’i Bowl in 2015.   

Plays on any team (San Diego State) - excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 or more yards per carry against a terrible rushing defense giving up 4.8 or more per carry after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last two opponents by 150 or more yards per game are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS since 1992.  The Black Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. MWC opponents.  Bet San Diego State Saturday.

20* UAB/Ohio Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on UAB +7.5 

The UAB Blazers have gone from not fielding a team the last two years to playing in their first bowl game in 13 seasons.  Financial reasons forced them to close the football program after the 2014 season.  But fundraising helped bring back the program in 2017, and the fan base has been behind them 100%. 

Head coach Bill Clark did not leave the program after the 2014 season.  He came back and led the Blazers to a school-record 8 wins.  They went 8-4 overall and finished 6-2 in Conference USA’s West Division.  Now they’ll be playing in their first bowl game since 2004, and it’s safe to say that no team will be more happy to be playing in a bowl this year than them. 

Clark is deserving of winning Coach of the Year honors, and many speculated that he would leave for greener pastures.  But Clark has shown his loyalty to the program by recently signing a five-year extension.  That will give the team a huge boost and eliminate any possible distractions. 

While UAB is happy to be here, I think Ohio is still suffering a hangover effect from losing its final two games of the season.  Those losses cost the Bobcats a chance to play for the MAC Championship.  They were upset 34-37 at Akron as 15.5-point dogs, and then watched Akron go on to get blown out by Toledo in the MAC Championship and by FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl.  The Bobcats also lost 24-31 at Buffalo in the finale. 

The Bobcats’ ground game is their strength, but that takes a big hit now that leading rusher A.J. Oullette (985 yards, 7 TD) is doubtful with a shoulder injury.  That will allow UAB to focus in more on stopping QB Nathan Rourke (877 yards, 21 TD).  And UAB only gives up 188 passing yards per game and 51.4% completions this season, so they are equipped to stop Rourke if he decided to air it out more. 

Head coach Frank Solich hasn’t been very good at pushing the right buttons with players leading up to bowl games.  He is 4-9 in his career in bowl games, including 2-6 at Ohio.  The Bobcats have lost three straight bowl games, and the opponents haven’t been very good in East Carolina, Appalachian State and Troy.  I don’t trust Solich’s ability to regroup this team after such a deflating finish to the season losing out on a chance at a MAC title. 

Plays against any team (Ohio) off two straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more in each, in a game involving two good teams winning 60% to 80% of their games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet UAB in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

15* LA Tech/SMU Frisco Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LA Tech +5 

The LA Tech Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams heading into bowl season.  That’s because they went just 6-6 this season, but they were better than that record suggests.  In fact, three of their losses this season came by a single points, and they went 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. 

But give head coach Skip Holtz and the Bulldogs credit for continuing to fight.  They needed to win each of their final two games to get into a bowl, and they did just that with a 42-21 win at UTEP as 16-point favorites, and a 20-6 home win over UTSA as 1-point favorites.  This team will clearly be happy to be playing in a ball after the way they fought for it down the stretch. 

"The competitive nature of this team and the will to fight, that's been consistent all throughout the season." Louisiana Tech senior running back Boston Scott said. "We're going to go out there and play hard -- we know what's at stake. We have to have that single-elimination mindset; it's win or end with a loss. I'm looking forward to seeing this team compete."

Holtz has certainly been a coach you want to back in these bowl games.  He is 3-0 in bowl games as the head coach at Louisiana Tech.  They beat Illinois 35-18 in in the 2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl, topped Arkansas State 47-28 in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl, and then won a wild 48-45 game against Navy in the 2016 Armed Forces bowl. 

No doubt SMU players were happy to clinch a bowl berth back on October 27th with their 38-34 win over Tulsa.  But they struggled down the stretch to stay motivated, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games overall.  They were fortunate to beat Tulane 41-38 as 8-point favorites in their season finale at home as the Green Wave came up inches short of a game-winning TD in the closing seconds. 

Now I really question the motivation of this team.  Head coach Chad Morris has abandoned the team and left for the Arkansas job, and he took a handful of assistants with him.  New head coach Sonny Dykes hasn’t had time to install his preferred Air Raid offense, so he will just sit back and let some of the team’s remaining assistants call the game and let his new team play to their strengths.  That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, and I just can’t imagine these SMU players being as focused as they normally would be coming into a game. 

It’s just hard to trust SMU in this game with the way they play defense.  They give up 35.5 points, 487 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on the season.  Compare that to LA Tech, which allows 26.7 points, 395 yards per game and 5.8 per play, and it’s easy to see which team has the superior defense in this one.  I think that will be the difference in this game, plus the fact that the Bulldogs will be the more focused, motivated team. 

SMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  LA Tech is 8-1 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Bet Louisiana Tech Wednesday. 

20* Akron/FAU Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Akron +23.5 

For starters, this is the biggest spread in college football bowl history.  I’ll gladly take the underdog in this situation as this 23.5-point spread has gotten out of hand for a number of reasons.  The value is clearly with Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday. 

This is an Akron team that has been underrated for most of the season.  Nobody expected them to go to the MAC Championship, but that’s precisely what they did.  The key was their 37-34 win over Ohio as 15.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that win as they outgunned Ohio by 48 yards. 

I like the fact that in the MAC Championship Game, they could have packed it in when they fell behind big early.  But they kept fighting and wound up covering as 20.5-point underdogs in a 28-45 loss to Toledo, which is a better team than Florida Atlantic.   

The Zips are very happy to be playing in a bowl game and will be motivated to try to pull the upset and finish their season with a winning record.  After all, this is only their third bowl game in the history of the program.  It’s only their second bowl appearance in the past 11 seasons.  They now get to head down to some warm weather in Florida and couldn’t be more excited to be here. 

I think Florida Atlantic comes in way overvalued after going 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.    The betting public has caught on to this team and has driven this line all the way up to 23.5.  Their season is a success no matter what happens in this game, because they just won Conference USA with a 41-17 victory over North Texas.   

They won their conference, and there really isn’t anything more to accomplish.  And what is Florida Atlantic’s reward for winning a down Conference USA?  They get to play another home game here.  The betting public will look at that as a good thing, but I don’t believe it’s a good thing at all.  They would much rather travel somewhere to a better destination.  These players won’t be excited at all to stay home.  Their lack of motivation in this game will make it very difficult to cover this 23.5-point spread in spite of their big talent edge. 

Akron is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games this season.  Florida Atlantic is 25-42 ATS in its last 67 home games.  The Zips are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Akron is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Zips are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Owls are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. 

Plays against home favorites (Florida Atlantic) - an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards per play against a defense that gives up 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play after 7-plus games, in non-conference games are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Akron Tuesday. 

20* North Texas/Troy 2017 Bowl Season Opener on Troy -6.5 

The Troy Trojans are 10-2 this season.  Their only losses came to Boise State and South Alabama.  The Boise State loss was on the road and they were in it the entire way, and the South Alabama loss was a letdown spot following the biggest win in program history at LSU the previous week.  Both losses were understandable. 

This is a Troy team that is loaded with seniors.  They will be motivated to win their 11th game and end their careers on top with a win in the New Orleans Bowl.  And I certainly believe they are far and away the better team in this matchup with North Texas. 

This is a North Texas team that was extremely fortunate to post a 9-4 record this year.  The Mean Green went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Every time they took a step up in class, they were blown out, and this is a step up as well.  They lost by 22 at SMU, by 17 at Iowa, by 38 at Florida Atlantic and by 24 to FAU in the C-USA Championship.  They trailed that game 34-0 before getting some garbage time scores. 

Since that loss to South Alabama, Troy has gone 6-0 with five of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  They are playing well and will be the superior team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They give up just 3.0 yards per carry on defense, and they average 4.8 yards per carry on offense. 

North Texas hasn’t been able to run the ball since losing arguably their best player in running back Jeffery Wilson.  He was hurt in the Army game in their 11th game of the season.  Wilson has rushed for 1,215 yards and accounted for 16 total touchdowns.  The Mean Green managed just 81 rushing yards on 35 carries against Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game.  They are one-dimensional now, which will make the task much easier for Troy in this game. 

Another big difference in this game is on the defensive side of the ball.  Troy has one of the better defenses in the country, giving up just 17.5 points per game and 4.9 yards per play on the season.  North Texas is one of the worst defensive teams, giving up 33.8 points pre game and 5.9 yards per play.  That’s more than a 16-point difference. 

The Trojans have a coaching edge in this game.  Troy defensive coordinator Vic Koenning held the same title at North Carolina when North Texas head coach Seth Littrell was the offensive coordinator of the Tar Heels.  The Trojans will be prepared for what they’re going to face defensively Saturday. 

"He's a really good friend of mine. I respect what he's done," Brown said of Littrell. "Vic's got an understanding of who Seth is and what he's about.”

"I really like what those guys do on offense, so I've watched them quite a bit as the years have gone on," Brown said of North Texas. "I've got a good feel for what they're trying to do offensively. The Fine kid ... they recruited him hard here at Troy. He's doing a really good job."

Plays on neutral field favorites (Troy) after allowing 8 or more yards per passing attempt last game, with 8 offensive starters returning are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1992.  North Texas is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Mean Green are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Neal Brown is 13-3 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of Troy.  The Trojans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. at team with a winning record.  Bet Troy in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday. 

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Navy -2.5 

Navy had won 14 straight meetings with Army before finally losing to the Black Knights 21-17 last season. But that was an awful situation for the Midshipmen, to recently moved into the AAC.  They played for the AAC Championship against Temple last year and lost that game. 

Normally, Navy would have two weeks to get ready for Army.  But that wasn’t the case last year as the Midshipmen had to play on Championship Week, while Army got two weeks to prepare.  The Black Knights took advantage of that break and pulled off the upset. 

That won’t be the case this year as both teams have two weeks to prepare.   And you can bet Navy wasn’t happy about having to hear about losing to Army for 365 days.  Look for the Midshipmen to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to have a big brother mentality where they never want to lose to their little brother. 

Let’s look at this game from a line value perspective.  Navy has been favored by at least 6 points against Army in 14 consecutive meetings.  They have been a double-digit favorite nine times during this stretch.  Now they are only 2.5-point favorites this year, and I think the value is clearly with the Midshipmen because of it. 

Sure, Army is improved at 8-3 this season, but the Black Knights have played an extremely soft schedule. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season!  The best wins they have are against 6-6 teams.  And they’ve lost to Tulane and North Texas. 

Navy has played the much more difficult schedule, and they’ve been in every game they played.  They are 6-5 this season, but all five losses came by 10 points or less, and they came to five bowl teams with four of them on the road to Memphis, UCF, Temple, Notre Dame and Houston.  They played all five teams right down to the wire, including a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs. 

Army outgained teams by 38 yards per game on the season while Navy outgained teams by 39 yards per game, and that’s important when you consider how much more difficult Navy’s schedule was.  This game will come down to which team stops the run. 

Navy gives up 4.6 yards per carry against teams that average 5.1 per carry, holding them to 0.5 yards per carry below their season averages.  Army gives up 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 4.3 per carry, actually giving up 0.5 per carry more than their opponents normally average.  It’s clear that the Midshipmen have the better run defense. 

Army is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. poor pass defenses that allow 8.5 or more yards per attempt.  Navy is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  The Black Knights are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 games following a bye week.  Bet Navy Saturday. 

15* Ohio State/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin +6 

Wisconsin just can’t get any love despite being unbeaten.  Sure, they have played a softer schedule than most Power 5 teams, but they’ve also taken care of business and have outgained all 12 opponents during their 12-0 start.  Nothing about their 12-0 record has been fluky as all 12 wins have come by 8 points or more, including a whopping 10 wins by 14 points or more. 

The oddsmakers just haven’t been able to catch up with Wisconsin down the stretch, either, because the public perception on them has been so poor.  All the Badgers have done is go 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, covering the spread by a combined 45 points to absolutely demolish these spreads. 

Now the Badgers are getting nearly a touchdown against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  I really think the value is with the Badgers in a game they probably win outright.  You can bet head coach Paul Chryst is going to be playing the no respect card with this team.  I think they are ready to take that next step and make their way into the four-team playoff. 

Ohio State just gets love from the betting public because of the name on their jersey.  But the Buckeyes have been far from impressive in their ‘step up’ games.  They are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Urban Meyer ‘mystique’ is no longer there when playing these bigger games. 

The Buckeyes lost at home to Oklahoma, needed a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat Penn State at home, and trailed Michigan most of the way last week on the road.  Not to mention, they lost 24-55 at Iowa and were outgained by 116 yards.  That’s the same Iowa team that Wisconsin beat 38-14 the next week while outgaining the Hawkeyes by 316 yards. 

J.T. Barrett suffered a knee injury against Michigan last week that forced him to leave the game.  He then had surgery on his knee this week, but he is expected to play.  That’s not a quarterback I’d want to be backing with my money with the fact that he actually had surgery the week of a game.  Barrett won’t be anywhere near 100% for this game. 

It’s also a revenge game for Wisconsin after losing in overtime at home to Ohio State last year.  The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS off three straight conference wins over the last two seasons.  Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 7-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in four straight games over the last two seasons.  Take Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Troy/Arkansas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy PK 

This is a huge revenge game for the Troy Trojans.  Last year, they were expected to win the Sun Belt and only needed to beat Arkansas State to do so.  They fell flat on their faces and lost 3-35 at home despite being 10-point favorites. 

This is a Troy team that returned 14 starters from that team and a ton of experience.  They are the best team in the Sun Belt in my opinion, and this is a scary team when they are motivated.  Now they prove they are the best team with a win over Arkansas State here.   

We saw what they could do when they were motivated when they beat LSU outright on the road as 20.5-point underdogs earlier this year.  That’s an LSU team that has since gone on to go 5-1 with its only loss coming to Alabama in a game where they actually outgained the Crimson Tide. 

The Trojans are the fresher team as they had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Texas State 62-9 last week.  Meanwhile, Arkansas State has had to play three straight weeks and is coming off a draining 67-50 shootout win over Louisiana Monroe.  I like the freshness of Troy better and the motivation of Troy better in this game. 

Troy has played the tougher schedule this season, yet still has put up the better numbers.  The Trojans are averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense and giving up only 4.7 yards per play on defense.  To compare, Arkansas State is at 6.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense.  With the Trojans having by far the superior defense, giving up 16.8 points per game this season compared to 24.2 for Arkansas State, that’s where this game is going to be decided. 

Troy is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after outgaining its last two opponents by 125 or more total yards each.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TROY) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Troy Saturday. 

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -2.5 

Quietly, the Georgia Southern Eagles are playing their best football of the season down the stretch.  They opened 0-9, but have since put together two huge efforts the past two weeks.  They beat South Alabama 52-0 as 6.5-point home dogs and LA Lafayette 34-24 as 4-point road dogs, covering the spread by a combined 72.5 points! 

It’s clear to me that Georgia Southern is being mis-priced in the market place right now as only 2.5-point favorites over Coastal Carolina this week.  Coastal Carolina is also 2-9 on the season, but this team is nowhere near as good as Georgia Southern right now.  They are getting too much respect for beating Idaho 13-7 last week, but that was an Idaho team without starting QB Matt Linehan, who means everything to the Vandals. 

Coastal Carolina is now without its top two quarterbacks in Tyler Keane and Dalton Demos, who are both doubtful to play Saturday.  That leaves 3rd stringer Kilton Anderson to take the snaps Saturday for the Chanticleers.  Anderson went just 11-of-23 for 100 yards against Idaho last week.  I see no way they can put up enough points to match Georgia Southern, which has scored a combined 86 points the past two weeks. 

The Chanticleers have zero home-field advantage and there certainly won’t be many fans who turn out to watch this 2-9 team.  Coastal Carolina is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season, scoring just 18.6 points per game and giving up 35.2 points per game, getting outscored by 16.6 points per game.  The have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games. 

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COASTAL CAROLINA) - after a game where they committed one or less turnovers against opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday. 

20* Stanford/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on USC -3 

The USC Trojans are doing it again.  After a slow start to the season just like last year, they have now reeled off four straight victories to close the season with three of those coming by double-digits.  They are now 10-2 and easily the best team in the Pac-12.  They prove that with a second victory over Stanford this season. 

What has been most impressive about this strong finish by the Trojans is that they didn’t have a bye week all year.  Their bye week came after their 12th game in Week 13 last week.  That gives them a massive advantage in rest and preparation heading into the Pac-12 Championship Game getting two full weeks to prepare for Stanford. 

Meanwhile, Stanford had to play a physical game Saturday night against Nortre Dame.  The Cardinal won’t hat game 38-20, but that was a completely misleading final.  The Fighting Irish actually outgained them 405 to 328 for the game, or by 77 total yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and that was the key difference.  I think that misleading 38-20 final has Stanford overvalued coming into this game now. 

USC already beat Stanford 42-24 in their first meeting this season to end a 3-game losing streak in this series.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  USC racked up a whopping 623 total yards on this Stanford defense, limiting the Cardinal to just 342 total yards and outgaining them by 281 total yards.  Expect more of the same in the rematch. 

The Cardinal are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Stanford is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Simply put, the Cardinal aren’t nearly as good as their 9-3 record suggests.  They are actually getting outgained by 7 yards per game on the season.  USC is outgaining foes by 79 yards per game on the season and is legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  Bet USC Friday. 

15* Washington State/Washington Apple Cup No-Brainer on Washington State +10.5

The roles are reversed this year for Washington and Washington State.  Last year, a spot in the four-team playoff was on the line for Washington.  They routed Washington State 45-17 thanks to four turnovers from the Cougars.  That game meant a lot for the Huskies.

Now, a spot in the Pac-12 Championship is on the line for Washington State.  A victory over the Huskies will allow the Cougars to win the Pac-12 North for the first time.  If Washington prevails, then Stanford will be the North Division's representative against South winner USC.  So Washington is only trying to play the role of spoiler having already been eliminated from North contention due to a head-to-head loss to Stanford.  The Huskies won't be nearly as motivated in the spoiler role after playing in the four-team playoff last year with a lot more at stake in the Apple Cup.

This is also a great spot for the Cougars because they will be coming off a bye, while the Huskies are coming off a physical 33-30 home win over Utah last week that probably took a lot out of them.  They easily should have lost that game, and that effort showed that they weren't all that motivated after losing to Stanford the previous week to essentially eliminate them from Pac-12 and national title contention.

Senior Luke Falk would love nothing more than to beat Washington in his final regular season game.  He has the Pac-12 records for career passing yardage (14,117) and passing touchdowns (118).  The Cougars have an elite offense, but what is underrated about this team is a defense that ranks 11th nationally by giving up just 303.8 yards per game.  The Cougars are 2nd in the country in tackles for losses (94).

Washington State is 16-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Washington State is 9-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, with a winning record on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Falk will be searching for his first career victory over the Huskies in his career, and I think he likely gets it Saturday given the great spot with the Cougars off a bye and the more motivated team.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +12

Duke opened 4-0 before losing six straight games.  But the Blue Devils showed a lot of heart last week in beating Georgia Tech 43-20.  It was their most impressive performance of the season.  They outgained a very good Yellow Jackets team by 141 yards, so the final score wasn't fluky at all.

Now the Blue Devils need just one more win to get bowl eligible, and they'd love to do it against their rivals Saturday.  I think Duke will be the more motivated team here because of this fact.  Wake Forest is already bowl eligible at 7-4 and has less to play for.

Plus, Wake Forest is coming off a huge 30-24 win over NC State at home.  That makes this a bit of a letdown spot for them as it is.  And that was a huge misleading final as the Demon Deacons were actually outgained by 168 yards by the Wolfpack.  They have actually been outgained in five of their last eight games, and I just don't think they are as good as their 7-4 record would indicate.  They should not be double-digit favorites against Duke.

I like this matchup for the Blue Devils as well.  They got their ground game going against Georgia Tech last week, rushing for a whopping 319 yards.  Wake Forest ranks 104th in the country against the run, giving up 200 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  

This Wake Forest defense is giving up 444 yards per game on the season, while Duke is giving up just 20.5 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 26 points and 370 yards per game, holding them to 5.5 points and 35 yards per game less than their season averages.  It's clear that the Blue Devils have by far the superior defense in this matchup.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this head-to-head series.  In fact, the road team has actually won five of the last six meetings.  The Blue Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 visits to Wake Forest, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven road meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  Give me the Blue Devils as double-digit underdogs here in a game they could easily win outright.  Take Duke Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are currently undervalued after losing four of their last six.  All four losses have come by 10 points or less to some quality teams, including road losses at Wisconsin (9-17) and Northwestern (13-23).  They also had a 12-14 loss at Rutgers in which they outgained the Scarlet Knights by 257 yards.  They also lost 24-25 at home to Nebraska after giving up a late score in the final seconds.

The Boilermakers were sitting at 4-6 last week, and Jeff Brohm called out his team, saying that anyone who didn't want to buy in could turn in their pads.  And boy did his team respond.  Purdue went on the road and beat Iowa 24-15 as 6-point underdogs.  I was on them last week and was very impressed with that effort as they outgained the Hawkeyes by 36 yards and limited them to just 258 total yards.

Purdue is better than its 5-6 record would indicate.  The Boilermakers have outgained seven of their 11 opponents this season with the only exceptions being Louisville, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, which was coming off its bye and trying to save its season.  The Boilermakers are outgaining teams by 26 yards per game on the season.

Brohm has this offense playing at a high level, but it's the work the Boilermakers have done on defense that has led to their turnaround this season.  They are only giving up 18.9 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 29 points per game and 5.8 per play.  They are holding opponents to 10.1 points per game and 0.6 yards per play below their season averages, which is the sign of an elite defense.

The Indiana Hoosiers are also 5-6, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers off their back-to-back wins over Illinois and Rutgers.  The Hoosiers don't have any quality wins outside of their road win at Virginia.  The other four wins came at home over Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern and Rutgers, and also that road win at Illinois.  They haven't beaten a team of Purdue's caliber yet.  Indiana has benefited from playing an easier schedule than Purdue.

Plays on home favorites (PURDUE) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1992.

Indiana is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 off a home win by 17 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 7-35 ATS in thier last 42 after outgaining their previous opponents by 125 or more yards.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in Big Ten games this season.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings.  The Boilermakers want to avenge four straight losses to Indiana, including their 24-26 loss as 21.5-point road dogs last year.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* VA Tech/Virginia ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Virginia +7.5

The Virginia Cavaliers will be highly motivated to end a 13-game losing streak to Virginia Tech in this head-to-head rivalry.  This is one of the best opportunities they have had to end the streak as I believe these two teams are on a similar level talent-wise.

Bronco Mendenhall has done a great job in Year 2 getting the Cavaliers to a bowl at 6-5.  They want more, and they clearly showed that last week when they led No. 2 Miami 28-14 in the second half before giving up 30 straight points to lose 44-28.  They went toe-to-toe with the Hurricanes, actually outgaining them 439 to 358 for the game.  They arguably should have won, and to put up 439 yards on that defense is quite a feat.

Virginia Tech has not looked good at all down the stretch, and it cannot be favored on the road by more than a touchdown here with the way it is playing right now.  The Hokies lost 10-28 at Miami, 22-28 at Georgia Tech, and needed a goal line stand to beat Putt 20-14 last week as 14-point favorites.  That is their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them covering 7.5 against highly motivated Virginia this week.

Pittsburgh threw for 311 yards against this Virginia Tech defense last week.  Kurt Benkert is having a very good year, and he lit up Miami's defense for 384 passing yards last week.  It's clear he will be able to find some success through the air against this overrated Virginia Tech defense that has allowed 399 yards per game in their last three contests.

This Virginia Tech offense is really struggling right now.  The Hokies have been held to less than 400 yards in five straight games against UNC, Duke, Miami, GA Tech and Pitt, not exactly the greatest slate of defenses.  They are averaging just 17.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play in their last three.  For whatever reason, they continue try running the football despite the fact that they're not a good running team.  They average 44 rush attempts per game at 3.8 per carry on the season.

Despite losing 13 straight to the Hokies, the Cavaliers have actually come very close to beating them recently.  They were blown out at Virginia Tech last year, but the previous four meetings were decided by a total of 20 points.  Three were decided by 4 points or fewer.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -3.5

Mike Riley's tenure at Nebraska is just about to be over.  He has gone just 19-18 in his three seasons, and the Huskers are guaranteed to have a rare losing season at 4-7 on the year.  They have lost three straight and five of their last seven, and their defense has continually been torched.

The Huskers have given up a whopping 47.0 points, 532.7 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play in their last three games.  They are getting worse, not better.  While their 44-56 loss at Penn State last week looks close, they actually trailed that game 56-24 with just over six minutes to play before remarkably scoring three touchdowns in the final six minutes.  I think that 'close' result is giving Nebraska more line respect than they deserve this week.

The Huskers have been outgained in five of their last six games all by 85 yards or more, and four times by 138 yards or more.  Their only win during this stretch came 25-24 at Purdue after their scored in the closing seconds to snatch victory form the jaws of defeat.  But that was a great spot for Nebraska as they were coming off their bye week, while the Boilermakers were coming off a tough 9-17 loss to Wisconsin.

I think Iowa is undervalued right now after losing back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Purdue.  It's clear to me that Iowa had a letdown in those two games after upsetting Ohio State 55-24 at home.  Now I fully expect them to be over that letdown and pissed off, looking to take out their frustration on their biggest rivals in Nebraska.  They'll have no problem kicking them while they're down here.

Iowa has given it to Nebraska the past two years, winning 28-20 in Lincoln as 2.5-point favorites in 2015, and 40-10 at home last year while outgaining the Huskers 408 to 217 for the game.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I think we see Iowa's offense get back to playing like they did against Ohio State against this soft Nebraska defense.  And this Iowa defense is still one of the better units in the country, holding opponents to 20.5 points, 363 yards per game and 5.1 per play on the season.    They are limiting foes to 9.1 points, 31 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages this year.

Nebraska is 0-6 ATS in home games this season.  They lost by 7 to Northwestern as 2-point dogs, by 42 to Ohio State as 24-point dogs, by 21 to Wisconsin as 12.5-point dogs and by 4 to Northern Illinois as 10.5-point favorites.  They needed a comeback to beat lowly Rutgers 27-17 as 11-point favorites, and they nearly lost to Arkansas State 43-36 as 14.5-point favorites.

Iowa is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Riley is 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS wins as the coach of Nebraska.  The Huskers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Kirk Ferentz is 17-5 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of Iowa.  Plays against home underdogs (NEBRASKA) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +4

The Buffalo Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are just 5-6 on the year, but all six of their losses have come by 10 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  They have simply had bad luck in close games.

But the Bulls haven't let it affect them here down the stretch.  They have reeled off two straight victories to get to five wins and within one win of getting bowl eligible.  Now, on Senior Day Friday, the Bulls will be highly motivated for a win to get to a bowl game, and to win it for their seniors.  I love the spot for Buffalo.

Conversely, the spot couldn't be any worse for Ohio.  The Bobcats were upset 34-37 at Akron last week in a game that decided the MAC East champion.  Of course, Akron had to win this week to clinch the East, which is exactly what they did on Tuesday with a 24-14 victory over Kent State.  

Now Akron will be going to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit to face Toledo, while Ohio has nothing to play for at 8-3 and already bowl eligible.  I expect a 'hangover' effect from that loss with Ohio this week.  They won't be able to match Buffalo's intensity in this one.

Buffalo is a completely different team with a healthy Tyree Jackson at quarterback.  He missed four games in a row due to injury, and it's no surprise the Bulls went 1-3 in those games, though they were at least competitive.  He returned against Akron and they should have won that game, losing 20-21 despite 303 passing yards from Jackson.  They outgained the Zips by 88 yards in that contest.  

Jackson really looked like himself two weeks ago, throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulls to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green.  Then last week the Bulls blew out Ball State 40-24 on the road behind 350 passing yards and four touchdowns from Jackson.  They outgained Ball State by 228 yards in that contest.  It's clear this team is much better with Jackson under center.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1992.

Ohio is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 when playing against a marginal losing team that wins 40% to 49% of their games.  Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams that allow 7.5 or fewer yards per return over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Bulls.  Bet Buffalo Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +15

The Ole Miss Rebels sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from a bowl game.  They would love nothing more than to upset their biggest rivals in Mississippi State here in the Egg Bowl Thursday to clinch that bowl berth.  This team continues to fight despite the tough circumstances they had coming into the season with the offseason distractions.

The Rebels haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 16 points.  They have gone 3-3 during this stretch with wins over Vanderbilt (57-35), Kentucky (37-34) and LA Lafayette (50-22).  Their three losses have come to Texas A&M (24-31), Arkansas (37-38) and LSU (24-40), so they have basically been competitive in every game.  Their only two losses by more than that 16-point margin both came on the road to Alabama and Auburn, the two best teams in the SEC.

There's no question Mississippi State is a very good team at 8-3 this season, but the Bulldogs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  This is a team that only beat UMass 34-23 three weeks ago as 31.5-point favorites, and they were in a battle last week with Arkansas as 13.5-point favorites in a 28-21 victory.

I love big underdogs in these rivalry games, and that has particularly been the case in this particular series.  The underdog has won four of the last five meetings outright, including Mississippi State's 55-20 win at Ole Miss last year as 10-point dogs.  You can bet the Rebels want to return the favor here and clinch their bowl by beating their biggest rivals.

Ole Miss boasts and offense that will keep it in this game for four quarters.  The Rebels are averaging 38.2 points per game in their last six contests.  Mississippi State is 3-11 ATS off a road game over the past three seasons.  I anticipate this game being closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -12.5

The Eastern Michigan Eagles could have easily packed it in after their 3-7 start.  They were the most hard-luck team in the country in close games through the first 10 games.  Their first six losses all came by 7 points or less, and the only reason they lost to Central Michigan was due to five turnovers in their last loss, a 12-point defeat.

But last week the Eagles showed a lot of heart.  They went on the road and beat Miami Ohio 27-24 as underdogs.  That was a Miami team that needed a win to make a bowl game, and the Eagles looked like they were the team that wanted it more.  They were in control the entire game before Miami scored a TD in the final two minutes and had a failed onside attempt.

This is a veteran EMU team that returned 16 starters and is loaded with seniors.  That is important because this is Senior Night for them and their final game of the season.  I think these seniors, led by QB Brogan Roback, will be motivated to end their playing careers with a victory.  They will put it on Bowling Green at home Tuesday night.

Roback and company should score at will against the worst defense in the MAC.  Bowling Green gives up 38.4 points per game, 517 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  They are giving up 39.9 points, 499 yards per game and 6.7 per play in conference action alone.  They just gave up 66 points to Toledo last week.

Bowling Green is 0-8 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons.  The Eagles are 13-1 ATS off one or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the past two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Eagles.  Take Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on LSU -15.5

I called for the LSU Tigers to be a great team to back as soon as they lost to Troy.  My prediction has certainly come through as they have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games since.  I've backed them in three of those games and am mad I passed up the other two games.  I won't make that mistake this week.  I'll lay the wood on LSU as 15.5-point road favorites over the hapless Tennessee Vols.

The turnaround started with a 17-16 win at Florida.  They then won 27-23 at home over Auburn as 6-point dogs, and that win looks better and better each week.  They won 40-24 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers gave Alabama a fight and actually outgained them, but lost 10-24 while covering the 21-point spread.  Then they won 33-10 over Arkansas as 19-point favorites, impressively avoiding a letdown off the Alabama game.  

LSU still has a shot to win 10 games this season, which would be a nice accomplishment in Ed Orgeron's first season, so I expect them to stay determined and focused this week and through their bowl game.  They will feel zero shame in putting it on Tennessee this week and kicking the Vols while they're down.  And, boy are the Vols down.

Tennessee has gone 1-5 in its last six games overall.  The only win came out of conference against Southern Miss at home, and the Vols were fortunate to win that game because they only managed 210 total yards and were outgained by 69 yards by the Golden Eagles.  They have lost three times by 33-plus points during this stretch, including their 17-50 loss at Missouri last week that was the last straw for head coach Butch Jones.

Jones has now been fired as the Vols sit at 4-6 on the season and unlikely to even make a bowl game, mainly because they aren't going to pull off this upset against LSU.  That leaves the job to Brady Hoke.  Tennessee is already losing commits in the wake of the Jones firing, and the young players on this team who were expecting Jones to be their coach for their careers here are certainly questioning their decisions.  I just don't like the state of this program at all right now, and it's time to keep fading away.

Tennessee is managing just 13.2 points and 279.2 yards per game and giving up 34.3 points and 452.5 yards per game in conference play.  The Vols have been gashed defensively against the run, giving up 433 rushing yards to Missouri last week and 257 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry on the season.  That makes this a great matchup for LSU, which rushes for 209 yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season.

Tennessee is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game.  LSU is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four trips to Knoxville.

Plays against home underdogs (TENNESSEE) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +9

The spot couldn't be much worse for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They are coming off back-to-back games against the two best teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State and Wisconsin.  They used a lot both mentally and physically in those two games, and I just don't think they will have much left in the tank for Purdue this week.

It was clear Iowa found lightning in a bottle against Ohio State.  That performance was the aberration and the outlier.  Iowa came back last week and managed just 66 total yards against Wisconsin.  Yes, they scored 14 points, but both were defensive touchdowns.  They lost 14-38 as their defense was manhandled by Wisconsin's offensive line.  Going up against a big, bruising team like Wisconsin will take its toll on an opponent.

I think Purdue comes into this game undervalued after losing four of its last five.  All four losses have come by 10 points or less to some quality teams, including road losses at Wisconsin (9-17) and Northwestern (13-23).  They also had a 12-14 loss at Rutgers in which they outgained the Scarlet Knights by 257 yards.  They also lost 24-25 at home to Northwestern after giving up a late score in the final seconds.

But sitting at 4-6, and with a very winnable home game against Indiana on deck, the Purdue Boilermakers will be 'all in' for their final two games to try and make a bowl game.  After Saturday's loss to Northwestern, Jeff Brohm challenged his players, saying that anyone who didn't want to buy in could turn in their pads.  Monday, he was asked if any players had done so.

"Not as far as I know," Brohm said. "I think everybody will respond. Any time you lose, it's tough. ... but it's a big learning experience. We definitely have had plenty of those.  This is an important week for us. If you don't come ready to play (vs. Iowa), it could be a very big challenge."

Purdue's been more conservative early in games recently, Brohm said, trying to establish a running game. But those days might be over, with Brohm saying Purdue would likely be more aggressive early at Iowa.

"We have to come out on the attack," he said. "If we do some out on the short end, I don't want it to be because we didn't throw enough punches."

Part of that attack may be using receiver Jared Parks some at quarterback.  He is the team's No. 2 quarterback behind Elijiah Sindelar, who didn't practice Tuesday to rest from getting 60 pass attempts and taking numerous hits, while Sparks took the first-team reps.

“They just wanted me to get some more reps,” said Sparks, who was wearing a gold No. 12 jersey to identify the quarterbacks. “They decided to sit Elijah out today to give him some rest. He’ll be back this week.”

Sparks had a career day against Northwestern, catching 11 balls for 130 yards.  Just having him at quarterback with his athletic ability for a few plays would be an added dimension to the offense.  I really think Brohm is going to pull out all the stops this week, which should include a few trick plays that Iowa hasn't seen yet.

Last year, Purdue scored 35 points and amassed 504 total yards on Iowa's defense.  And this offense is much better than last year under the guidance of Brohm, who has already turned Purdue into a respectable football program.  And the defense has made major strides this year, giving up just 19.3 points per game against teams who average 29.6 points per game, holding opponents to 10.3 points per game below their season average.

While Purdue is outgaining teams by 24 yards per game on the season and only getting outgained by 2 yards per game against conference opponents, Iowa is getting outgained by 38 yards per game on the season and by 82 yards per game in conference play.  It's pretty clear to me that Purdue is the better of these two teams when you look at the numbers, and we're getting 9 points with the Boilermakers.  It's a great spot for Purdue fighting for a bowl, too, while it's an awful spot for Iowa coming off those two heavyweight matchups.

Purdue is 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the past three seasons.  The Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games off a loss.  Purdue is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  The Boilermakers are 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Purdue Saturday.

15* UCF/Temple AAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Temple +14

I backed the UCF Knights regularly early in the season.  They did not disappoint as they opened 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS, consistently covering the spread by big margins.  But then the betting public caught on and the oddsmakers had to really over-adjust, and as a result we've seen the Knights fail to cover the spread in their last two games.

After beating Austin Peay 73-33 with no line, UCF came back and only beat SMU 31-24 as 14.5-point road favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week, they only beat a terrible UConn team 49-24 as 38-point favorites.  UConn was playing with a backup quarterback for the first time this season in that game as well.  Now they're being asked to go on the road and lay two touchdowns against an vastly improved Temple team from the start of the season.

Indeed, the Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oddsmakers have consistently missed the mark on them down the stretch.  They only lost 13-20 to Houston as 11.5-point dogs, won 34-10 at ECU as 3.5-point favorites, suffered a fluky loss at 8-2 Army 28-31 as 7-point dogs in overtime, beat Navy 34-26 as 6-point dogs and topped Cincinnati 35-24 as 2.5-point road favorites last week.  Their only ATS loss came to UConn 24-28, but that was a very misleading final as they outgained the Huskies by 225 yards and clearly should have won.

In fact, the Owls have now outgained five straight opponents by a combined 633 total yards, or by an average of 126.6 yards per game.  That's why I think we can ignore Temple's early season struggles because this is a completely different team now.  This is a team capable of hanging with and upsetting UCF thanks to an average that has come to life, averaging 31 points and 464.8 yards per game in their last five games.  

The catalyst has been QB Frank Nutile, who replaced Logan Marchi three games ago.  Nutile has completed 62 of 91 (68.1%) of his passes for 803 yards and a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his past three games.  The Owls have also been much improved defensively in conference play, giving up just 25.2 points, 349.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in AAC action.

This is a clear lookahead spot for the UCF Knights.  They have a game on deck against South Florida next week that is going to decide who wins the AAC East division and moves on to face Memphis in the AAC Championship Game.  The winner of that game will also likely be the coveted Group of 5 selection for a big bowl game against a Power 5 opponent.  I can't help but think the Knights have to be thinking more about the USF game and not paying enough attention to Temple this week.

Temple is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  Temple is 9-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Owls are finishing strong for a second consecutive season.  Don't be surprised if they pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the inflated 14 points for some added insurance.  Take Temple Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia +19.5

The Miami Hurricanes are in an awful spot here.  This is the perfect time to 'sell high' on them and 'buy low' on the Virginia Cavaliers.  The stock couldn't be higher on Miami right now, while the stock couldn't be much lower on Virginia.  That's why I believe we are getting too many points here with the Cavaliers catching 19.5 points against the Hurricanes.

Miami is coming off its two biggest wins of the season.  The Hurricanes thumped Virginia Tech 28-10 at home to seal the ACC Coastal Division title.  Then they beat Notre Dame 41-8 last week to keep their national title hopes alive.  Now they have come out as the No. 3 ranked team in the playoff rankings.

With that ranking comes expectations that they cannot live up to.  And it also comes with national media attention that can take the focus away from 18, 19 and 20-year old kids.  Malik Rosier has been on ESPN doing interviews, as has head coach Mark Richt, and it's just a major distraction that they don't need.  It's safe to say I think this sets up perfectly for them to come out flat against Virginia this week.

Conversely, Virginia has lost three of its last four coming in.  A couple of them were bad looks with a 10-41 loss to Boston College and a 14-31 loss to Pitt.  But they rebounded and clinched bowl eligibility with a 40-36 win over a very good Georgia Tech team.  It's was a huge accomplishment for Bronco Mendenhall to get his team to a bowl game in his second season.  And as expected, they fell flat last week with a 21-38 road loss at Louisville.

Now, with a chance to knock off the No. 3 team in the country, the Cavaliers will be back to being 100% focused for this game.  We've already seen the Cavaliers pull off a huge upset on the road this season.  They went into Boise State and won 42-23 as 13.5-point dogs earlier this season.  That win looks even better now. Mendenhall will have his team ready to battle Miami for four quarters Saturday.

After back-to-back blowout wins over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, the betting public is quick to forget how lucky the Hurricanes are to still be undefeated.  They won four straight games by 8 points or less against North Carolina, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Florida State.  They snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with late scores in the closing seconds against both Georgia Tech and FSU.  

The Hurricanes have been extremely fortunate in the turnover department to aid these recent victories.  They have forced at least four turnovers in four consecutive games, and I don't expect that streak to continue this week.  They forced four turnovers against both Syracuse (27-19) and UNC (24-19) yet still had to fight tooth and nail to win both games.  Virginia has been good with taking care of the football, committing two or fewer turnovers in all but one game.  They have just 12 turnovers in 10 games this season.

I also like the fact that his is an early 12:00 EST kickoff.  Miami played a night game against Notre Dame last week, and it was a tremendously rowdy atmosphere.  The fans should still be rowdy, but it will be nothing like it was for that night game against the Fighting Irish.  The home-field advantage won't be nearly as strong for this one.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (80% wins or better) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 47-17 (73.4%) ATS since 1992.  Plays against a home team (MIAMI) - after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% wins or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1992.  

The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Miami.  Mark Richt is 2-11 ATS in home games after playing two straight home games in all games he has coached.  The Hurricanes have been home for three weeks now getting nothing but pats on the back, especially all week leading up to this game.  I think they get a bigger fight than they bargained for from Mendenhall and company this weekend.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana-Monroe +37

Talk about the spot of all spots.  Auburn couldn't be in a worse sandwich spot then it is this week.  After upsetting No. 1 Georgia last week and knocking the Bulldogs clear down to No. 7 in the playoff rankings, Auburn now has an even bigger game on deck against current No. 1 Alabama next week in the Iron Bowl.  That game will be for all the marbles to win the SEC West and go to the conference championship game, while also keeping Auburn's playoff hopes alive.

It's safe to say that Auburn will not be up for this game at all as it steps out of conference to play Louisiana-Monroe.  The bigger concern will be keeping everyone healthy so that they will have all hands on deck against Alabama next week.  That means the starters are likely to get pulled early.  Winning and staying healthy is the priority, not winning by more than 37 points to cover this massive spread.

We saw Auburn in a similar spot earlier this season.  The Tigers were coming off a huge game against Clemson in their opener, and they proceeded to lay an absolute egg against Mercer at home the next week.  The Tigers only won that game 24-10 as 40-point favorites.  I think that result alone against an FCS opponent lets you know that Louisiana-Monroe is more than capable of staying within 37 points of Auburn this week.

And Louisiana-Monroe is much better than Mercer.  I have been impressed with the Warhawks this season.  They sit at 4-6 on the year but haven't been blown out yet.  In fact, their largest defeat has come by 11 points this season.  They only lost 29-37 at Memphis as 27.5-point dogs earlier this season to show what they are capable of.

Plus, Louisiana-Monroe gets two full weeks to rest and prepare for Auburn after last playing on November 4th and having their bye last week.  We last saw them come through with one of their best performances of the season, a 52-45 home win as 8-point dogs against Appalachian State.  That's a very good App State team and their only loss in Sun Belt play thus far this season.  And Appalachian State only lost 10-31 at Georgia earlier this season.

The Warhawks boast a high-powered offense that is putting up 37.0 points, 476 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season against teams that only give up 29.5 points, 407 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  It's a balanced attack that averages 194 rushing yards and 281 passing yards per game.  The Warhawks certainly have the offense to score on this Auburn defense and keep them within the number.

Plays against any team (AUBURN) - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992.  The Warhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games. 

Auburn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite of 20 or more points.  College football underdogs of 30 or more points this season alone are 57-23 ATS.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* Buffalo/Ball State MAC Thursday No-Brainer on Buffalo -20.5

The Buffalo Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate, and that is evident with their impressive 8-2 ATS record this season.  They have suffered three losses by a combined 5 points in conference play, so they have just had terrible luck in close games.

Fortunately, this game will not be close.  That's because Ball State has been the punching bags of the MAC this season.  The Cardinals have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in MAC play, getting outscored by a ridiculous 42.8 points per game in the process.  They are scoring just 10.5 points per game and giving up 53.2 per game in conference play.  Off six straight losses by 28 or more points, the Cardinals just want this nightmare of a season to be over.

Conversely, Buffalo still has a lot to play for.  The Bulls can still make a bowl game if they win their last two games.  They have a tough one up next, but they get Ohio at home, and Ohio proved beatable with a loss at Akron on Tuesday of this week.  I think the Bulls are good enough to beat Ohio and have the confidence to do so.  But first they know they need to take care of business against Ball State this week.

Buffalo is a completely different team with a healthy Tyree Jackson at quarterback.  He missed four games in a row due to injury, and it's not surprise the Bulls went 1-3 in those games, though they were at least competitive.  He returned against Akron and they should have won that game, losing 20-21 despite 303 passing yards from Jackson.  They outgained the Zips by 88 yards in that contest.  Jackson really looked like himself last week, throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulls to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green.

The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Ball State is 1-11 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  Fading Ball State is the gift that keeps on giving, and we'll take advantage this week.  Take Buffalo Thursday.v

25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Ohio -3

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are prepared for this situation.  Just last year, they started 0-6 before winning their final six games to get bowl eligible.  They were expected to compete for a MAC title with all they had returning in 17 starters and a ton of talent, but this season hasn't gone the way they wanted, mainly due to an injury to QB Gus Ragland and some bad breaks in close games early.

But here they were again this season, sitting at 3-6 and needing to win their final three games to make the postseason.  Ragland returned from injury last week and led the Redhawks to a 24-14 home win over Akron.  The Redhawks outgained the Zips by 147 yards.  Ragland threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns to lead them to victory.

So now they are just two wins away from getting back to the postseason.  They play the worst team in the MAC in Ball State next week, so they will get in if they win this game.  It's safe to say they are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight, and I look for them to get the job done in blowout fashion in what should be their best effort of the season.

Eastern Michigan has had a hard-luck season with close loss after close loss.  The final straw was last week when they lost 30-42 at Central Michigan while self-destructing with five turnovers.  The Eagles are now 3-7 on the season and cannot make a bowl game, so I really question their motivation this week.  I don't expect them to show up at all.

Just looking at Miami's numbers this season it's easy to see that they are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate.  They have actually outgained eight of their 10 opponents this season.  The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 126 yards by Notre Dame and by 70 by Cincinnati.  Miami is outgaining teams by 42 yards per game on the season, including by 66 yards per game in conference play.  That is the sign of a good team and one that should be better than 4-6 right now.

Miami has won nine straight meetings with Eastern Michigan with six of those victories coming by double-digits.  The Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Plays on any team (MIAMI OHIO) - average rushing team (140 to 190 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game), after allowing 2.0 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 69-33 (67.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Miami Ohio Wednesday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores sit at 4-5 on the season and in need of two wins in their final three games to make a bowl game.  They still have home games against Kentucky and Missouri, as well as a trip to Tennessee to close out the season, so the outlook is very good for the Commodores.  Look for a big effort from them this week.

Vanderbilt is 4-0 in non-conference play and 0-5 in SEC play, so it will also be motivated for its first conference win.  But this has been a brutal schedule as the Commodores have already had to face Alabama and Georgia at home, as well as Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina on the road.  So this game against Kentucky at home is their most winnable SEC game yet, and I look for them to take advantage.

Kentucky is 6-3 this season, but it's a bit of a fraudulent 6-3.  All six wins have come by 11 points or less, including four by 7 or fewer, so the Wildcats have simply had good fortune in close games.  They are getting too much respect from oddsmakes because they have the better record here, but I don't think they are the better team at all.  They have only had to play three road games all season, and one resulted in a 7-45 loss at Mississippi State.

This is an awful spot for the Wildcats.  Once they opened 6-2 they relaxed and lost at home 34-37 to an Ole Miss team that is in turmoil right now and playing a backup quarterback.  Now the Wildcats have their biggest game of the season on deck against No. 1 ranked Georgia.  I think they'll be looking ahead to that game and won't give Vanderbilt the focus and attention they deserve this week.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Kentucky hasn't won at Vanderbilt since 2009, while the Commodores have gone 3-0 in their last three home meetings with the Wildcats, winning by 4, 16 and 30 points.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Kentucky is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Kentucky is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Commodores.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Georgia/Auburn CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Auburn +3

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 10 ranked team in the country right now despite having two losses.  That's because neither loss was bad as they both came on the road to fellow ranked opponents Clemson and LSU.  They only lost 14-6 at Clemson in the opener, and blew a 20-0 lead to lose 23-27 at LSU.  All seven of their wins have come by 14 points or more, including home wins over Mississippi State (49-10) and Ole Miss (44-23), as well as road wins over Missouri (51-14), Arkansas (52-20) and Texas A&M (42-27).

The SEC is the only conference that could get a team with two losses to the four-team playoff.  And Auburn is a very strong candidate to be that team, because they are going to have a chance to pick up three huge wins down the stretch.  They host Georgia this week and then host Alabama in their regular season finale.  If they can win those two games, they would get a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship.  That would give them three straight wins against Top 10 opponents, and the playoff committee wouldn't be able to keep them out.  So the Tigers still have everything to play for and these are must-win games from here on out.

Georgia, on the other hand, is 9-0 on the season.  The Bulldogs could afford to lose this game to Auburn and still make the four-team playoff if they beat the SEC West champ in the SEC Championship Game.  And with that No. 1 ranking in the playoffs right now comes added pressure and expectations that I don't think the Bulldogs can live up to.  I faded them last week and took South Carolina +25.5 in a comfortable cover with a 10-24 loss at Georgia.  And now the Bulldogs are favored by a field goal on the road against an Auburn team that I believe is close to their equal.  But the 9-0 record and No. 1 ranking has Georgia overvalued, while the 7-2 record and two narrow losses has Auburn undervalued right now.

The numbers also show that these two teams are pretty evenly matched.  Georgia is outscoring opponents by an average of 24.9 points per game and outgaining them by 192 yards per game and 2.6 per play.  Auburn is outscoring opponents by 20.0 points per game and outgaining them by 158 yards per game and 2.0 yards per play.  And it's worth noting that Georgia has played five home games and only three true road games, while Auburn has played five true road games and only four home games.  The 20-19 win at Notre Dame was impressive, but Auburn is every bit as good as Notre Dame.  The two other two road wins came at Tennessee and Vanderbilt, two of the worst teams in the SEC.

Auburn wants revenge from three straight losses to Georgia, including two by a touchdown or less the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Auburn is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or fewer points per game.  I think the Tigers pull off the 'upset' here at Jordan-Hare Stadium this afternoon.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +3

Virginia Tech's most important game was last week in a showdown at Miami with the Coastal Division title essentially on the line.  The Hokies laid a complete egg and were never really even competitive, losing 28-10 while getting outgained by 130 yards.  That was the type of dream-crushing loss that will be hard for them to get back up off the mat from.  Look for the Hokies to be flat against Georgia Tech this week.

The Yellow Jackets are just 4-4 on the season and need two wins in their final three games to get bowl eligible.  They still have to play Georgia in the season finale, so their two most winnable games are this week against Virginia Tech and next week at Duke.  Look for them to be treating this like a must-win and for them to put a big effort forth here.

Georgia Tech is much better than that 4-4 record would indicate.  The Yellow Jackets have outgained six of their eight opponents.  But they have suffered 3 losses by 1, 1 and 4 points, which is how close they are to being 7-1 right now.  The only exception was a 14-point loss at Clemson where the Tigers were coming off a bye and a loss to Syracuse, so it was an awful spot, and the Yellow Jackets were still competitive in that 10-24 defeat as 14-point dogs.

The Yellow Jackets have been a thorn in Virginia Tech's side in recent seasons.  In fact, the Yellow Jackets have only lost to the Hokies by more than a field goal one time in the last seven meetings.  The Yellow Jackets pulled off two outright upsets during this five-year stretch, including last season's 30-20 road win as 14-point underdogs.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

The one constant for Georgia Tech has been its dominant at home this season.  The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game in the process.  This team has been an undervalued commodity for two straight seasons, going 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  I expect the Yellow Jackets to win this game outright.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +16.5

The Michigan State Spartans just cannot get any respect from oddsmakers despite the season they are having.  They are 7-2 and in prime position to win the Big Ten.  They have outgained eight of their nine opponents, and even outgained Notre Dame by 141 yards in misleading 18-38 loss.  Their other loss came in triple-overtime at Northwestern 31-38 in a game where they outgained the Wildcats by 108 yards.  

The only game the Spartans were outgained in all season was their 14-10 win at Michigan in which they were outgained by only 48 yards.  Just looking at the numbers, it's easy to see that Michigan State is an elite team.  They are outgaining their opponents by 99 yards per game on the season.

The Spartans are always one of the best teams in the country to bet in the underdog role.  Indeed, the Spartans have gone 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog with 14 OUTRIGHT UPSETS, including outright upsets against both Penn State and Michigan as double-digit underdogs this season.

Mark Dantonio has had Urban Meyer's number in recent seasons.  They have split the last six meetings 3-3 with the Spartans going 4-2 ATS in those games.  They were 20.5-point home dogs last year and only lost 17-16.  They pulled the 17-14 upset as 14.5-point road dogs in 2015.  They only lost by 12 at home in 2014, upset the Buckeyes 34-24 as 5.5-point home dogs in 2013, only lost 17-16 in 2012, and won 10-7 as 3-point road dogs in 2011.  As you can see, each of the last six meetings were decided by 12 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer.

I question Ohio State's motivation this week after a crushing 55-24 loss at Iowa last week as 21-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by 52 points.  And now they're being asked to lay over two touchdowns to a better Michigan State team that pretty much handled Iowa.  And Ohio State has not played well in all three of its step up against against Oklahoma, Penn State and Iowa.  They lost two of those three, and needed a huge comeback in the fourth quarter to beat Penn State 39-38 at home.

With two losses on the season now, the Buckeyes will not be going to the four-team playoff.  That was their goal coming into the season, and now that goal is shot.  I just don't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to beat Michigan State, let alone beat the Spartans by more than two touchdowns.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after having won four out of their last five games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3

The turnaround at Boston College this season has been one of the best stories in all of college football.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have won four of their last five with their only loss coming to Virginia Tech.  And this team just keeps getting better and better as their last three performances were the most eye-opening.

Boston College won 45-42 at Louisville as 18.5-point underdogs.  They matched the Cardinals score for score and racked up 555 total yards in the win.  They then went on the road and beat Virginia 41-10 as 7-point underdogs.  They amassed 512 total yards while limiting the Cavaliers to 247, outgaining them by 265 yards.  Then they crushed Florida State 35-3 as 6-point home dogs, limiting the Seminoles to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

Now the Eagles have had a bye week to get ready for NC State.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team and this couldn't be a worse spot for the NC State Wolfpack.

Two weeks ago, NC State went into Notre Dame and lost 35-14.  That loss really hurt any chances of winning a national title.  But the ACC was still up for grabs against Clemson last week.  The Wolfpack fought extremely hard, but the Tigers won that game 38-31 and simply made more plays down the stretch.  They had the Clemson game circled all offseason after losing in overtime to them last year.  

Now, with that loss comes the realization that winning the ACC is no longer an option, and I think the Wolfpack will find it hard to get back up off the mat this week in time to face Boston College.  I also question how much NC State has left in the tank after playing those two physical shootouts, especially defensively.  They gave up 318 rushing yards to Notre Dame and 224 to Clemson.

Now they have to face an Eagles team that is averaging 40 points per game in their last three while putting up 243.8 rushing yards per game in their last five.  Freshman quarterback Anthony Brown has been virtually unstoppable, and the bye week will only help him get better and build off of what he has been doing in recent weeks.  And this BC defense is still one of the better units in the conference, giving up just 24.8 points, 398 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season, including 24.3, 384.5 and 5.3 in ACC play.

Boston College has had NC State's number in recent seasons, too.  The Eagles are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings, including their 21-14 upset road win as 16-point dogs last year.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Boston College.

NC State is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Plays against road favorites (NC STATE) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +7

2017 was the first time in a long time that the Bedlam Series between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State wasn't played in the final week of the regular season.  The Big 12 made the switch and moved the game up this year with the thought that it would be possible that these teams who have to play two weeks in a row in the Big 12 Championship if they didn't move it.  It's the first year of the Big 12 Championship since the conference dropped down to 10 teams.

It was a wildly entertaining Bedlam Series with Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State 62-52.  The Cowboys had the ball with a chance to win at the end, but the Sooners got a rare stop and tacked on a meaningless touchdown in the closing seconds when they could have just ran out the clock.  It was kind of the De Facto title game with the loser eliminated from Big 12 title contention.

Now I really question Oklahoma State's motivation.  This is a team with not only Big 12 Championship hopes, but also national title hopes coming into the season.  But after losing to both TCU and Oklahoma at home, those dreams are crushed now.  I think the Cowboys fail to get back up off the mat this week against Iowa State.

Speaking of Oklahoma and TCU, those are two common opponents of Iowa State.  The Cyclones beat the Sooners 38-31 on the road, and the Horned Frogs 14-7 at home.  The Cowboys lost to both by double-digits at home.  And because the Cyclones won both those games, they have the tiebreaker over those two teams.  So if they win out, they will be going to the Big 12 Championship.  

That's a very realistic possibility because after playing Oklahoma State at home this week, the Cyclones have very winnable games against both Baylor and Kansas State to close out the season.  So I have no doubt the Cyclones are going to be highly motivated in this game given their season outlook and what they can still accomplish.

The Cyclones lost to Texas 17-7 earlier this season, and then made the switch at quarterback.  They have been rolling since.  After beating TCU, they did lost 20-16 at West Virginia last week.  It was a clear letdown spot for them.  They didn't show up in the first half and trailed 20-0 in that game.  But they showed tremendous fight and actually had a chance to win it in the end, shutting out the Mountaineers the rest of the way but falling just short by a 16-20 final.

The Cyclones have the second-best defense in the Big 12 behind only TCU.  They are giving up just 14.7 points, 349.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Compare that to Oklahoma State, which is giving up 34.2 points, 442.0 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play in Big 12 action, and you can see which team has the better defense here, and it's not even close.  And we're getting a full touchdown with the better defense, the more motivated team, and the home team here.  It's a tremendous value.

Oklahoma State does have a high-powered offense, but that offense may take a hit this week if they are without leading receiver James Washington, who is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against Oklahoma.  Washington has caught 52 balls for 1,133 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 21.8 yards per reception.  And Iowa State's 3-3-5 defensive scheme has mystified the Big 12 this season as they aren't allowing big plays and keeping everything in front of them.  That scheme matches up very well with the Cowboys, who rely almost exclusively on the deep ball to try and move the ball through the air.

Iowa State wants revenge from five straight losses to Oklahoma State, including two narrow losses the past two seasons.  The Cyclones lost 35-31 at home as 11.5-point dogs in 2015 after blowing a 31-21 lead in the fourth quarter.  They lost 31-38 on the road as 14-point dogs last year, again blowing a 31-24 lead in the fourth quarter.  I think they get their revenge this year and likely pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.

The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on a grass field.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.  Plays against road favorites (OKLAHOMA ST) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average defense (330 to 390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1992.  I don't think the Cowboys even show up this week after losing to Oklahoma.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +31

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back devastating losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  They blew a big lead and lost 39-38 to the Buckeyes two weeks ago.  They came back the next week and lost on a last-second field goal to Michigan State 24-27.

I really question how they'll bounce back mentally knowing that their dreams of winning the Big Ten and a national title are now crushed.  Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 31 points to an upstart Rutgers team that will be excited to play a nationally ranked foe.  I have no question the Scarlet Knights will be the more motivated team and will out-hit the Nittany Lions this week.

Clearly Penn State's defense can be moved on.  The Nittany Lions gave up 529 total yards to Ohio State and 474 to Michigan State.  Rutgers should find enough success on the ground and through the air to put up a couple touchdowns or more, which is all they'll need to cover this lofty number because their defense is underrated.

Rutgers is feeling good after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Scarlet Knights pulled the 35-24 upset at Illinois, upset Purdue 14-12 as 7.5-point home dogs, lost by 21 at Michigan as 21.5-point dogs, and upset Maryland 31-24 at home as 3-point dogs.  This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

This Rutgers defense is giving up just 24.9 points and 394 total yards per game this season.  That's where the biggest improvement has come from this team.  And the offense is taking care of the football, which will be key to keeping this game close against Penn State.  The Scarlet Knights have only committed two total turnovers in their last three games combined.

Penn State is 0-7 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons, only winning 25.4 to 25.1 on average in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Penn State is 0-8 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing Rutgers.

James Franklin has been a front-runner when things have gone good, but he hasn't had that same magic touch when things are going bad.  I look for them to continue to go bad for Penn State this week off those two crushing losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* Temple/Cincinnati AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +3

The Cincinnati Bearcats are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate.  First-year head coach Luke Fickell has done a tremendous job of making this team competitive.  And I certainly like the outlook of this team moving forward from a mental standpoint.

The Bearcats realize that getting to a bowl game is still a great possibility.  That's because after hosting Temple on Friday, they finish the season with two games against the two worst teams in the AAC in East Carolina and Connecticut.  They have been through the gauntlet of their AAC schedule, already facing Navy, UCF, South Florida, SMU and Tulane.  Temple has already faced both ECU and UConn, actually losing at home to the Huskies 24-28 despite being 10.5-point favorites.

Cincinnati outgained Tulane by 128 yards last week in a very good 17-16 road victory.  The game before, the Bearcats outgained SMU by 3 yards but lost 28-31 in overtime.  They weren't overmatched by USF and UCF despite the lopsided scores. They were only outgained by 124 yards by UCF and by 129 yards by USF.  They were only outgained by 17 yards by Marshall in another misleading final the game before.  They only lost 32-42 at Navy the game before, and beat Miami Ohio 21-17 on the road the week before.  So they have essentially been competitive in seven straight games, at least from a statistical standpoint.

This is kind of a sandwich spot for Temple.  The Owls are coming off a huge 34-26 upset home win over Navy last week, and now they have a home game on deck against undefeated and nationally ranked UCF next week.  Don't be surprised if the Owls are looking ahead to that game, and feeling a little too good about their win against Navy to give Cincinnati the attention it deserves this week.

The Owls have been atrocious on the road this season, going 1-3 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Of course, their 34-10 win at East Carolina is making their numbers look better than they really are.  They lost 16-49 at Notre Dame, 7-43 at USF and 28-31 at Army.

Plays on home teams (CINCINNATI) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games off a win.  The Bearcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

15* Toledo/Ohio MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Toledo -3.5

At 8-1 on the season and just outside the Top 25, the Toledo Rockets feel like they are still very much alive to be that Group of 5 team invited to a big bowl game.  They trail both UCF and Memphis, but only slightly, and both of those teams have some big games upcoming.

Toledo will be favored in the rest of its games and has an excellent shot of finishing 12-1 if it wins the MAC Title game.  With such big goals still in front of them, I expect a big effort from the Rockets here despite the fact that they beat Northern Illinois last week and likely locked up their bid into the MAC Championship.  They want more.

Ohio, on the other hand, is 4-1 in MAC play leading 4-2 Akron by a half a game after the Zips lost last night to Miami Ohio.  I was on Miami Ohio in that game knowing that Akron had essentially nothing to play for.  That's because Akron hosts Ohio next week in what will essentially decide the MAC East champion.  And it's also the reason this game essentially means nothing to Ohio.  A game against Akron next week is the more important one as it will decide who plays Toledo at Ford Field in the MAC Title game.

Motivation aside, I strongly believe Toledo is the better football team either way.  The Rockets' only loss this season came on the road to unbeaten Miami.  Six of their eight wins have come by double-digits.  They have played the tougher schedule and continue to be underrated week in and week out.

Conversely, Ohio has benefited from an extremely soft schedule.  In fact, the Bobcats have played the 107th-toughest schedule of 130 teams in the country.  Their only real test in non-conference play was at Purdue, and they failed miserably in a 21-44 loss.  They also lost at home to Central Michigan 23-26, a team that Toledo beat going away 30-10 on the road.

These teams are pretty evenly matched defensively, but Toledo has the huge edge on offense.  The Rockets are averaging 521 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  They have tremendous balance, rushing for 224 yards per game and 5.2 per carry, while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 9.8 per attempt.  Ohio is averaging 424 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

In conference play alone, Toledo is averaging 521 yards per game and 7.6 per play, and giving up 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play, outgaining MAC opponents by 193 yards per game and 2.9 per play.  Ohio is averaging 416 yards per game and 6.0 per play and giving up 340 yards per game and 4.7 per play in MAC action, only outgaining teams by 76 yards per game and 1.3 per play.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Bet Toledo Wednesday.

20* Akron/Miami Ohio MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -6.5

It's now or never for the Miami Ohio Redhawks.  Sitting at 3-6 on the season, they will need to win out to make it to a bowl game for a second consecutive season.  They haven't had the same magic this year they did last year when they opened 0-6 and went 6-0 down the stretch.

But the Redhawks are in a similar position here and know they've done it before.  Plus, the schedule ahead is very doable.  After playing Akron this week, they get 3-6 Eastern Michigan at home next week and 2-7 Ball State on the road.  They'll be favored in their final three games, so getting to 6-6 is very doable.  Look for them to have a positive mindset moving forward because of it.

Akron, on the other hand, is going to be in an awful spot mentally.  The MAC East is down to two teams right now in Ohio and Akron.  Both are 4-1, while their next closest pursuers are 2-3 within the conference.  And who does Akron play next week? Ohio.  So that game next week will decide who wins the East division and makes it to the MAC Championship at Ford Field.  The Zips will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't be focused this week knowing this game means absolutely nothing to their title hopes.

Akron is a fraudulent 5-4 this season.  The Zips are only averaging 332 yards per game and 5.2 per play offensively, while giving up 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play defensively.  So they are getting outgained by 112 yards per game on the season, which isn't the sign of a team that would be 5-4 right now.

Akron has actually been outgained in seven of its nine games this season.  The only two exceptions were against the worst two teams they played in FCS Arkansas Pine Bluff and awful Ball State, which they only outgained by 7 yards in a misleading 31-3 final.  Ball State has been getting blown out by everyone here of late.

The Zips are 4-1 in MAC play, but they were outgained in four of those five games.  They wree outgianed by 15 yards by Ball State in their 34-23 road victory.  They were outgained by 211 yards in their 14-13 road win at Western Michigan.  They were outgained by 293 yards in their 21-48 loss at Toledo.  They were also outgained by 87 yards in their 21-20 win over Buffalo.  As you can see, two of their four wins came by a single point, and they were misleading finals.

Conversely, Miami Ohio is much better than its 3-6 record would indicate.  The Redhawks have outgained seven of their nine opponents this season.  They only exceptions were when they were outgained by 126 yards at Notre Dame, which is a pretty good showing when you look at how good Notre Dame has been.  They were also outgained by 70 yards by Cincinnati.

Despite being 2-3 in MAC play, Miami Ohio has actually outgained all five of its MAC opponents.  The Redhawks are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense in MAC play and giving up only 5.5 yards per play on defense in MAC action.  They are outgaining MAC opponents by 49.2 yards per game.  Compare that to Akron, which is getting outgained by 119.8 yards per game in MAC play, and it's pretty easy to see which is the better team tonight.

It's worth noting that Akron lost leading rusher Warren Ball to a season-ending ankle injury recently.  They were already struggling to run the ball, averaging just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  Ball averages 4.4 yards per carry on the season, and not having him in there will make them very one-dimensional the rest of the way.  The Redhawks have been good against the pass this season, giving up just 53.5% completions and 203 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

The Redhawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.  The Zips are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Plays on a home team (MIAMI OHIO) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Chuck Martin is 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season as the coach of the Redhawks.  Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU +21.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers this weekend as 21.5-point home favorites against the LSU Tigers.  This is a huge rivalry game that always seems to go down to the wire, and I think it will be closer than most anticipate this weekend.

The 'game of the year' line prior to the season on this game was Alabama -12, and now it's been adjusted 9.5 points to -21.5, showing the kind of value we are getting.  Many thought LSU would challenge Alabama for the SEC West title.  But since they lost to Troy, everyone has counted them out.  That has provided extra line value with the Tigers since that loss.

Indeed, LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since losing to Troy.  They won at Florida 17-16 in a game that actually closed LSU -2 but you could find LSU as high as +6.5 earlier in the week, and I got on them at +3.5 in that game and cashed a ticket.  I was also on LSU as 7-point home dogs to Auburn in a 27-23 outright win.  I did fade LSU against Ole Miss the next week, but they even surprised me and kept it rolling with a 40-24 win as 6.5-point road favorites.

You can bet LSU feels it is still very much alive to win the SEC West.  After all, they control their own destiny because if they win out they will be be crowned SEC West champs.  So this game is even bigger for them than it is for undefeated Alabama.  The schedule is very manageable after this with games against Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M, so it's not out of the question if they can pull the upset.

I just like the way this LSU team is trending right now, especially after their best offensive output of the season.  The Tigers racked up 40 points and 593 total yards against Ole Miss last time out.  Derrius Guice was banged up earlier this season and actually missed the Troy game.  But he's back to the form that he closed last season with.  Guice rushed for 276 yards and a score against Ole Miss.  And Danny Etling isn't great, but he doesn't make the big mistake with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he's averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt.  Avoiding turnovers will be key against Alabama.

I think the biggest reason the Crimson Tide are so overrated right now is because they couldn't have played a much softer SEC schedule up to this point.  Their five SEC games have come against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Tennessee.  I guess you would say Texas A&M is the best team they've faced, and they only won that game 27-19 as 25-point favorites.  And the early 24-7 win over Florida State clearly doesn't look as good now as it did at the time.  LSU is a clear step up in class this week and the best team the Crimson Tide have faced by far.

You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time Alabama beat LSU by more than 21 points.  That's a span of 15 meetings, giving us a perfect 15-0 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 21.5-point spread.  This is simply way too many points to be giving LSU in this rivalry game.  Bet LSU Saturday.

15* Texas/TCU ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +7

Tom Herman is now 14-0 ATS as an underdog as a head coach and offensive coordinator dating back to his time at Ohio State with 11 outright upsets.  He has gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in the role with the Longhorns this season, covering as 16.5-point dogs in a 24-27 OT loss at USC, covering as 8.5-point dogs in a 24-29 loss to Oklahoma, and covering as 7-point dogs in a 10-13 home loss to Oklahoma State.

Now the Longhorns are getting a full touchdown once again on the road against TCU this week.  I think there's tremendous value with them here as this team has improved as much as anyone since the Week 1 upset loss to Maryland.  In fact, the Longhorns are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And they have been battle-tested against a brutal schedule, so they will be ready for TCU this week.

They nearly beat USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and I believe all three of those teams are better than TCU.  The Horned Frogs have been way overrated due to their 7-0 start to the seaosn, and that showed last week with a 7-14 loss at Iowa State.  It was only a matter of time before Kenny Hill lost a game for them because he's simply not that good and he's mistake-prone.

The Horned Frogs' only touchdown last week against the Cyclones came on a kickoff return to start the second half.  The offense was shut out, and they committed three costly turnovers, including two interceptions by Hill in the red zone.  Now Hill has to go up against the best defense he has faced yet.

This is a Texas defense that continues to improve, allowing just less than 30 points at the end of regulation to every team they've played since Maryland.  Sam Darnold and USC only managed 27 points despite going to overtime, Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma were held to 29 points, and Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State were limited to 13 points despite going to overtime.  This is a defense that is giving up just 21.0 points per game on the season.

TCU has faced a putrid schedule of opposing defenses up to this point.  The Horned Frogs are averaging 37.2 points and 446 yards per game, but that has come against a slate of defenses that allowed 33.9 points and 431 yards per game on the season.  The Horned Frogs do have an elite defense, but it's about on par with this Texas stop unit.

The Longhorns continue to improve offensively as they have topped 400 total yards in three of their last four games while averaging 421 yards per game during this stretch against K-State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor.  It was only a matter of time before Herman got this offense hitting its stride, and that appears to be the case now.

Texas is going to have extra motivation for this game after getting blown out by TCU in three consecutive seasons.  I think the Horned Frogs are in line for a 'hangover effect' from their 14-7 loss to Iowa State last week that all but killed their chances of making the four-team playoff.  So the Longhorns catch them in a good spot and will be the more motivated team to avenge those three consecutive defeats.

TCU is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Don't be surprised if the Longhorns win this game outright, but we'll gladly take the 7 points for some insurance.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +22

It hasn't taken much time for the Boise State Broncos to starting getting love from the betting public and the oddsmakers again.  They were a terrible team against the spread for the past one and a half seasons, but they have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games and are starting to command respect from the oddsmakers now.  I think they are getting too much respect as 22-point home favorites over Nevada this week.

A 24-7 win at BYU isn't impressive.  The 31-14 win at San Diego State was a good win, but the Aztecs basically gave that game away with turnovers and special teams miscues.  The 24-14 home win over Wyoming as 15.5-point favorites wasn't that impressive, and the 41-14 win at Utah State last time out as 13-point favorites isn't anything to get too excited about, either.

What I am excited about is this Nevada team.  It was always going to take some time for Jay Norvell to implement his Air Raid system, but now he has the Wolf Pack firing on all cylinders.  They have scored 35, 42 and 42 points in their last three games and have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS as a result.  They beat Hawaii 35-31 as 5.5-point home dogs, only lost 42-44 at Colorado State as 24-point dogs, and lost at home 42-45 to Air Force as 5.5-point dogs.

But unlike Boise State, the Wolf Pack aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers despite their dramatic improvement.  And now they are coming off a bye week since that loss to Air Force to hone in things and prepare for this matchup with Boise State.  They should put forth another great effort here off their bye and continue making improvements.  Plus, I'm sure Norvell has a few tricks up his sleeve that he installed during the bye that will catch Boise State off guard.  He has been great at calling trick plays at the perfect times this year.

I think this is a huge lookahead spot for Boise State with a road game at Colorado State next week.  The Rams were the preseason favorites to win the Mountain Division and will be the biggest contenders with Boise State.  The winner of that game will likely win that side of the conference and advantage to the Mountain West Championship Game.  So I don't think Nevada will have Boise State's full attention this week.

Nevada is 9-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Boise State is 0-9 ATS in all home games over the last two years.  The Blue Turf isn't the advantage it used to be.  The Broncos are only outscoring opponents by an average of 6.3 points per game in those nine home games over the past two seasons.  I think this one will be closer than expected as well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Boise State.  Bet Nevada Saturday.

25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State -3

The Oklahoma Sooners have mostly dominated the Bedlam Series of late, winning four of the last five meetings.  However, this is the first year during this stretch that I actually feel Oklahoma State has the better team coming in.  And they will take out years of frustration on their 'big brother' this weekend in Stillwater.

The Cowboys have been the best team in the Big 12, and I really don't even think it's close.  They have an elite offense that is putting up 44.5 points, 569 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  Mason Rudolph is having a Heisman-worthy season, throwing for 2,866 yards and a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.4 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for seven touchdowns.  And the Cowboys aren't one-dimensional as their big, beefy offensive line is getting the job done and paving the way for 199 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

But the real reason the Cowboys are one of the best teams in the country and better than Oklahoma this season is defense.  They have one of the most underrated defenses in the land.  The Cowboys only give up 24.4 points, 358 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams who average 31.8 points, 431 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They are holding opponents to 7.4 points, 73 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages this season.

Those numbers have really shown up in Big 12 play despite facing mostly elite offenses thus far.  The Cowboys are allowing 28.6 points, 373.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play in Big 12 play.  Compare that to Oklahoma, which is yielding 33.0 points, 449.8 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big 12 action.

Then you look at who these teams have faced in the Big 12 and it's easy to see that Oklahoma State has gone up against the tougher slate of opposing offenses.  They have both played Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas, but Oklahoma State already had to play WVU and TCU, while Oklahoma has played Iowa State and Kansas State instead of WVU and TCU.

The Sooners have been way overvalued in Big 12 play.  They are 1-4 ATS as their first four games were decided by 8 points or less against Baylor (49-41), Iowa State (31-38), Texas (29-24) and Kansas State (42-35).  And their only cover came last week in misleading 49-27 home win over Texas Tech as 19-point favorites.

Rudolph and company will be able to score at will on an Oklahoma defense that has holes all over the secondary that have been exploited this season.  Their two starting cornerbacks are awful.  The Sooners are allowing 61.1% completions and 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season.  Compare that to Oklahoma State, which only gives up 55.5% completions and 6.4 yards per attempt.  The Cowboys have also been better against the run, giving up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, while the Sooners allow 142 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

And the common opponents show that Oklahoma State is the better team this year.  Oklahoma is only outgaining the three common opponents of Oklahoma State by 124 yards per game, while the Cowboys are outgaining those same three foes by 239.4 yards per game.

Last week's 50-39 win in West Virginia resulted in a cover as 9.5-point favorites for the Cowboys, but it was a very misleading final.  It was clearly a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Mountaineers got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only managed 347 total yards against this stout Cowboys' defense.

The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game.  Mike Gundy is 37-20 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Gundy and company get their revenge this weekend.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +25.5

I locked in South Carolina at +25.5.  I love it even more now that Georgia came out ranked No. 1 in the initial college football playoff rankings.  Now the Bulldogs will be getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they are likely to come out flat against the Gamecocks Saturday.  They will also start to feel the pressure of being ranked so highly, which puts an even bigger target on their backs.

But the main reason I like South Carolina this week is because it's also a letdown spot for the Bulldogs off their huge 42-7 win over their biggest rival in the Florida Gators last week.  They finally got revenge on the Gators after years of misery against them.  But that was a misleading final as the Bulldogs only outgained the Gators by 144 yards.  They simply took advantage of huge turnovers and special teams plays.

The Gamecocks have been one of the more underrated teams in college football this season.  They have gone 6-2 with a win over NC State.  Their two losses came to Kentucky and Texas A&M by 10 points or less.  So they have been competitive in every game, and I expect more of the same from them here against Georgia.

Will Muschamp knows how to coach of a defense, and the Gamecocks' defense is the reason why they can be competitive in this game.  They are giving up just 20.2 points, 382 yards per game and 5.3 per play this season.  They have been stout against the run, giving up just 138 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  And that will be key to stopping a one-dimensional Georgia offense that rushed for 284 yards per game and 6.0 per carry.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart and Muschamp were teammates in college at Georgia.  Smart won't be looking to run up on the score on his former teammate.  And it's also worth noting that Georgia has an even bigger game against Auburn on deck, so this is a clear lookahead spot for the Bulldogs.

South Carolina has actually had Georgia's number, winning four of the last seven meetings outright.  The Gamecocks have also gone 8-4-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  And Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 24 points once in the last 40 meetings dating back to 1974.  That makes for a dynamite 39-1 system backing the Gamecocks pertaining to this 25.5-point spread.  Roll with South Carolina Saturday.

15* Penn State/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +9

It's going to be extremely difficult for Penn State to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing 38-39 road loss at Ohio State last week.  It's the type of loss that can really take a couple weeks for a team to get over.  It was basically the De Facto Big Ten Championship Game, and the Nittany Lions lost it.

The way they lost it was even tougher to swallow for the Nittany Lions.  They blew a 28-10 lead in that contest.  They were actually outscored 19-3 in the fourth quarter, giving up the game-winning touchdown pass with 1:48 left.  And Trace McSorley and company went four and out on the next possession.  Saquon Barkley didn't even touch the ball on the final possession, and he was seen on the sidelines chewing out his offensive linemen.  I just don't like the mental state of this team coming in.

But let's be honest, Ohio State was the better team in that game, and the Nittany Lions were fortunate to even keep it close.  The Buckeyes outgained the Nittany Lions by 246 yards.  They racked up 529 total yards on the Penn State defense, while giving up just 283 total yards.  They held Barkley and company to just 91 rushing yards on 35 carries, an average of 2.6 per carry.  I think that effort really shows how overrated Penn State is.

Now the Nittany Lions are being asked to go on the road off that deflating loss and lay 9 points to an upstart Michigan State team that has been underrated all season.  It's also an early start time, so the Nittany Lions could still be sleepwalking through it.  This has upset written all over it.

Not to mention, Michigan State is going to want revenge from an embarrassing 12-45 loss in Happy Valley last year.  But that was a huge misleading final and a bad Spartans team who actually out-first-downed the Nittany Lions 26-18 in that game.  And that was the final game of the regular season with Penn State trying to clinch the Big Ten West, while Michigan State was lacking motivation after already being eliminate from bowl contention.  You can bet Mark Dantonio has not forgotten and will be reminding his players all week, not that he even needs to.

Michigan State is 6-2 this season and could easily be 8-0.  The two losses were misleading.  One was to No. 3 Notre Dame 18-38, and while the score was a blowout, the statistics shows that the Spartans should have won.  They actually outgained the Fighting Irish by 141 yards in that game.  Then last week in their triple-overtime loss at Northwestern, they outgained the Wildcats by 108 yards.  They have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season with the only exception coming when they were outgained by 48 yards in their 14-10 road win over Michigan as 13-point dogs.

Penn State doesn't control its own destiny in the Big Ten West now.  However, Michigan State actually does and still has plenty to play for.  They only have one Big Ten loss, and if they win out they will be crowned Big Ten West champs.  That's because if they can beat Penn State this week and Ohio State next week, they would hold the tiebreaker on the Buckeyes.  With that kind of outlook, it's going to be much easier for the Spartans to get over their overtime loss to Northwestern last week.

The Spartans are back to having an elite defense this season.  They are giving up just 19.6 points per game, 283 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play against opponents that average 28.9 points, 388 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  They are holding their opponents to 9.3 points, 105 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages.  And Penn State is 2-12 ATS in its last 12 road games versus excellent defensive teams who give up 285 or fewer yards per game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1992.

Penn State is 0-7 ATS off a loss over the last three seasons, so James Franklin hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well.  He has been more of a front-runner.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Spartans.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UMass +28

This has all the makings of a flat spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  They are coming off a huge 35-14 road win over Texas A&M last week, which was a very misleading final and has the Bulldogs overvalued as it is.  And now Mississippi State has its 'game of the year' on deck next week against Alabama, so it's a huge lookahead spot as well.

I just can't see how the Bulldogs are going to get up for this game as they step outside the conference to play the UMass Minutemen.  We've seen in the past the Bulldogs fall flat in these non-conference games, most recently getting upset by South Alabama as identical 28-point home favorites last year.  All Dan Mullen will be concerned with here is keeping his guys healthy for that game against Alabama next week, not running up the score on the Minutemen.

There's no question UMass is better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  The Minutemen actually lost their first six games of the season all by 10 points or less.  That includes a 13-17 loss as identical 28-point dogs at Tennessee.  And that was when the Vols were still playing well, not the Vols team that we have seen today.  And either way it's impressive that they went on the road and nearly pulled off the upset against an SEC opponent.

The Minutemen then had their bye week following those six straight close losses to open the season, and promptly took out their frustration with a 55-20 beat down of Georgia Southern as 8.5-point favorites.  They carried that momentum over into an upset 30-27 home win over Appalachian State as 4-point dogs, and App State is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt.

The good part about backing UMass is that they have an offense capable of scoring points on this Mississippi State defense.  They are putting up 29.9 points and 443 yards per game this season behind a passing attack that is averaging 296 yards per game through the air.  The Minutemen have actually outgained five of their eight opponents this season and are outgaining them by an average of 55 yards per game, the sign of a team that is better than 2-6.

I know starting quarterback Andrew Ford is questionable with an injury, but backup Ross Comis has played well in his absence the past two games.  He brings a dual-threat element to the offense, rushing for 132 yards  and two scores on 35 attempts.  He has also thrown for 380 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  He is capable of handling the job if Ford cannot go and has played a big part in their last two victories over both Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

The Minutemen are actually a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. SEC opponents.  They had that 13-17 loss to Tennessee as 28-point dogs earlier this season.  In 2016, they also played Mississippi State and only lost 35-47 as 22-point home dogs.  They also lost 7-24 at Florida as 36-point dogs last year.  In 2014, they lost 31-34 at Vanderbilt as 16-point dogs.  In 2013, they lost to Vanderbilt 7-24 as 29-point home dogs.  They just have a knack for playing these SEC teams tough, and I'm sure in almost every situation it was a letdown spot for the SEC squad.  There is no bigger letdown spot than this one for the Bulldogs with Alabama on deck next week.  Take UMass Saturday.

20* Marshall/FAU C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -9

No team has improved more from Game 1 to Game 8 in college football than Florida Atlantic.  It's easy to see why considering Lane Kiffin was in his first season and had a ton of stud recruits to get acclimated to the new schemes.  But now that the Owls have grasped on to those schemes, boy are they are dangerous team right now.

FAU opened 1-3 with a 19-42 loss to Navy in their opener.  The other two losses came on the road to Wisconsin and Buffalo.  But then the Owls hit conference play, and they have not only won, they have dominated the opposition in four Conference USA games.  I believe they should be among the favorites to win the conference now.

It started with a 38-20 win over Middle Tennessee as 2-point home favorites.  Then they went on the road and crushed Old Dominion 58-28 as 5.5-point favorites.  They then had a bye week before dismantling a good North Texas team 69-31 as 3.5-point home favorites.  And last week they took down defending C-USA champ Western Kentucky 42-28 on the road as 6-point favorites.  The Owls have covered the spread by a combined 83 points in their last four games, or by an average of roughly 21 points per game.

The reason I'm confident laying this number with the Owls is because their offense cannot be tamed right now.  They are averaging 51.7 points, 563.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in conference action.  They have rushed for at least 252 yards in six consecutive games and are averaging 296 rushing yards and 6.3 per carry on the season.  And they've made enough big plays in the passing game that opposing teams can't stack eight in the box.

Marshall has played a much weaker schedule than FAU and is overrated right now due to its 6-2 record.  The six wins have come against all teams with losing record in Miami Ohio (3-6), Kent State (2-7), Cincinnati (2-6), Charlotte (1-7), Old Dominion (2-6) and Middle Tennessee (3-5).  Those six teams are a combined 13-37 on the season.

We saw just last week how overrated the Thundering Herd really are.  They lost 30-41 at home to Florida International as 15-point favorites.  They have put up good defensive numbers up to this point, but against the two best teams they played in NC State and FIU, they allowed 37 and 41 points, respectively.  Now they are up against another offensive juggernaut and won't have the firepower to keep up.  The Owls have scored 31 or more points in six straight games.

Marshall is 43-68 ATS in its last 111 road games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference games.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.  FAU is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning home record.  It will be a rowdy home atmosphere for the Owls tonight as fans are excited about what Kiffin is doing and realize that they are a legitimate contender to win Conference USA.  Bet Florida Atlantic Friday.

15* NIU/Toledo MAC Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois +9.5

The Northern Illinois Huskies and Toledo Rockets have played in some epic games over the years.  These teams are always fighting for the MAC West title, and that is the case once again in 2017.  This game will likely decide the division champ.

The Huskies are 6-1 in their last seven meetings with the Rockets.  The only exception was a 31-24 home loss last year in which the Huskies were down to their 3rd string quarterback.  But this has been a closely-contested series as five of the last six meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  I expect more of the same this year, which is why getting 9.5 points with the Huskies is such a value.

It's hard not to admire what Northern Illinois has done this season.  The Huskies are 6-2 on the year with their two losses coming by 3 and 6 points to Boston College (20-23) as 3.5-point dogs and San Diego State (28-34) as 9.5-point road dogs.  And they outgained both of those teams in losing efforts.  They also picked up an impressive 21-17 road win at Nebraska as 10.5-point dogs.

Toledo is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins and covers against suspect MAC teams in Ball State, Akron and Central Michigan.  Now they take a step up in class this week against a team they just simply cannot figure out through the years.

I also like the matchup for the Huskies defensively.  Northern Illinois has been rock solid on defense, giving up just 18.0 points, 307 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play this season.  Toledo has been running on opponents with ease, averaging 231 rushing yards per game.  But that won't be the case tonight against a NIU defense that only gives up 106 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  And they've faced some elite rushing offenses in BC, SDSU and Nebraska and shut them all down.  NIU has also been stiff against the pass, allowing just 53.1% completions and 201 passing yards per game.

The Rockets have been just an average team on defense this year.  They are giving up 25.4 points, 363 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that average 24.2 points, 365 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  The Rockets will have the edge offensively, but again they haven't seen many defense as stubborn as this Huskies outfit.

NIU is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points.  The Huskies are 6-0 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game over the last three seasons.  NIU is 7-0 ATS versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 34-14-3 ATS in their last 51 road games.  The Rockets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Toledo is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games overall.  Bet Northern Illinois Thursday.

15* CMU/WMU MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Central Michigan +6.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas have their best chance to beat their biggest rivals in the Western Michigan Broncos this year.  They have lost three straight to the Broncos in this series, but those were much better WMU teams under PJ Fleck.  This 2017 version has been much more vulnerable.

Indeed, Western Michigan is just 5-3 this season.  Three of its five wins have come by single-digits with the lone exceptions being blowout wins against FCS foe Wagner and arguably the worst team in college football in Ball State.  The Broncos needed overtime to beat both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan, and only beat Idaho by 9 as 17-point home favorites.  They also lost to Akron 14-13 at home as 12.5-point favorites.

Now the Broncos lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a season-ending broken collarbone against Eastern Michigan last week.  That's a huge loss as he has been one of the best QB's in the MAC, completing 64.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for three scores.  Now the Broncos will be turning to true freshman Reece Goddard this week.

Central Michigan is playing well of late.  It upset Ohio 26-23 on the road as 10-point dogs, lost to Toledo 10-30 at home, and crushed Ball State 56-9 on the road as 3-point favorites in its last three games.  The loss to Toledo isn't so bad because the Rockets are probably the best team in the MAC, and Ohio may be the second-best team, so that win looks really good right now.

Miami transfer Shane Morris has come in and played well for head coach John Bonamego.  He has thrown for 1,966 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season.  Stud receiver Corey Willis is back and healthy now after missing four games earlier this season.  He has caught 23 balls for 293 yards and four scores in those four games.

The strength of schedule for both teams has been very comparable.  And the numbers suggest that they are pretty evenly-matched teams up to this point.  The Chippewas average 5.2 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.2 per play on defense.  The Broncos average 5.7 per play on offense, but give up 5.6 per play defensively.  So while the Broncos have had the edge on offense up to this point, that won't be the case in this game since they are starting a true freshman quarterback for the first time.

Western Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games.  The Broncos are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. good passing teams who average 250 or more yards per game.  The Chippewas are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

Plays against home favorites (W MICHIGAN) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Miami (OH)/Ohio UNDER 54

Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio is one of the more underrated rivalries in the MAC.  These teams absolutely hate each other, and that makes these games played closer to the vest.  And if you look at the series history, it has almost always been a defensive battle.  I expect more of the same Tuesday night.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Bobcats and Redhawks have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings with the lone exception behind a 57-point effort in 2013.  They have averaged a combined 40.4 points per game in their last eight meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 54.  Ohio beat Miami 17-7 last year and these teams combined for just 435 total yards.

I think the fact that Ohio is scoring 40.7 points per game this season is what has inflated this total.  But the Bobcats have played one of the worst schedules of opposing defenses in all of college football.  Now they'll be up against a much more respectable Miami defense that is giving up 24.5 points and 356 yards per game, including 20.5 points per game in conference play.

Miami's offense has failed to get going this year, averaging just 23.6 points per game.  Now they'll be up against a Bobcats defense that is giving up only 25.4 points per game, including 19.7 points per game, 313.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play in conference play.

The UNDER is 37-16 in Redhawks last 53 October games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bobcats last seven games following a bye.  Both teams have extra prep time after last playing on November 21st, which favors the defenses.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Redhawks last five conference games.  The UNDER is 21-7-1 in Bobcats last 29 conference games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* USC/ASU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +3

The Arizona State Sun Devils have flipped the switch.  Their last two games have been two of the most impressive of the entire college football season, and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  I still think this team is flying under the radar this week as home underdogs to the USC Trojans.

It started five weeks ago when they beat Oregon 37-35 as 15-point home dogs.  That was a healthy Oregon team at the time.  Then they had a decent showing in a 24-34 loss at Stanford as 17-point dogs, covering the spread there as well.

Then they had their bye week and I backed them as 17.5-point home dogs to Washington.  They won that game outright 13-7, limiting a potent Washington offense to just 230 total yards and one touchdown.  If they were ever going to have a letdown, it would have been last week in Salt Lake City.  

Instead, they blasted Utah 30-10 as 10-point underdogs.  They held the Utes to just 265 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett has this defense playing at an extremely high level right now.  He has 40 years of coaching experience and was a tremendous hire by Todd Graham in the offseason.

While the Sun Devils are feeling good about themselves, the USC Trojans just suffered the type of dream-crushing loss to Notre Dame last week that could be hard to recover from.  I was on Notre Dame as my biggest play last week, and the Fighting Irish crushed them 49-14.  Now the Trojans have no shot of making the four-team playoff after coming into the season as one of the favorites to get there.

The Trojans were beaten physically at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Notre Dame.  They gave up 377 rushing yards, and only managed 76 rushing yards on 31 carries.  They have key injuries up and down the offensive and defensive lines, which has been their biggest problem this season.

Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and he has made some costly mistakes all year.  The Trojans have committed at least two turnovers in every game this season and 19 turnovers in eight games overall.  And the Trojans haven't been able to catch their breathe because they don't get a bye week all season.  It's a big reason why these injuries just keep compiling.

Yet here we are with the Trojans favored this week on the road against this upstart Arizona State team.  This despite the fact that USC has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  And Arizona State has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games while covering the spread by a combined 77.5 points. or by an average of nearly 20 points per game.  And USC needed to stop a 2-point conversion to beat Utah at home two weeks ago, while ASU beat Utah by 20 on the road last week.  That gives these teams a common opponent here recently.

Plays against favorites of 3 to 10 points (USC) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Trojans are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 road games.  The Sun Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  ASU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.

Arizona State is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 60% & 75%.  The Sun Devils are 80-48 ATS in their last 128 Saturday home games.  It will be a great atmosphere in Tempe for this late-night game on ESPN this weekend.  These fans are really excited about their team this year with the Sun Devils legitimately in the race for the Pac-12 South title after a 3-1 start in conference play.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

25* CFB DOG OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +19

I'm not sure what Oklahoma has done to warrant being a 19-point favorite over Texas Tech.  This team has been overvalued ever since the win over Ohio State, and they haven't been able to live up to expectations.  They won't live up to them here Saturday, either.

The Sooners have gone 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, and all four of their games have been decided by 8 points or less against some suspect competition.  They won 49-41 at Baylor as 28-point favorites, lost 31-38 to Iowa State as 30-point home favorites, only beat Texas 29-24 on a neutral as 8.5-point favorites, and needed a late TD to beat Kansas State 42-35 as 16-point road favorites last week.

Those aren't even four of the best teams in the Big 12.  Baylor has yet to win a game, Texas has a losing record, Iowa State has been a surprise but is no contender, and Kansas State has only one conference win.  The Sooners failed to cover the spread by a combined 69.5 points in their last four games, or by an average of roughly 17 points per game.

And here's why Oklahoma cannot be trusted to cover the spread this week.  The Sooners have their 'game of the year' on deck against rival Oklahoma State next week in a game that could easily decide the Big 12.  Then they play TCU the following week.  I can't help but think the Sooners will be looking ahead to that 2-game stretch and overlooking Texas Tech.

That's especially the case after Texas Tech just lost 13-31 at home to Iowa State.  I think we're getting some extra point spread value because of that effort.  But the Red Raiders gave that game away with three turnovers, including a pick-six in the fourth when they were getting back into the game.  And I wouldn't be surprise if the Red Raiders were looking ahead to their game against Oklahoma.

But make no mistake, this is an improved Texas Tech team this season.  They still have the same potent offense they always do, averaging 40.3 points and 514 yards per game.  But the difference with this team is that they now have an above-average defense.  They are only allowing 5.6 yards per play against opponents that average 5.8 yards per play, holding them to 0.2 yards per play below their season average.

And Texas Tech will always be in this game against Oklahoma because they can score at will against this suspect Sooners defense.  The Sooners are allowing 34.5 points, 453.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play in conference play against a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Red Raiders are giving up a similar 34.2 points, 440.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play in conference play against a more difficult schedule of opposing offenses that has included Oklahoma State and WVU.

Last year Texas Tech proved it could keep up with Oklahoma as 16.5-point home underdogs.  The Red Raiders lost that game 59-66, but they racked up a whopping 854 total yards and 42 first downs in that losing effort.  They are going to want some revenge here and would love nothing more than to spoil Oklahoma's season.  The Sooners are walking a tight rope right now with all of their recent close wins and could crash and burn here with Oklahoma State on deck.

Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley has Texas Tech ties.  He walked on for the Red Raiders as a quarterback before then-coach Mike Leach convinced him to give up playing and instead get a head start on his coaching career.  The decision helped Riley land the head coaching job with the Sooners before his 34th birthday.

"Certainly wouldn't be standing here talking to you guys without that place," Riley said. "It's always fun to play 'em. They're always somebody, when we're not playing 'em, I'm rooting for 'em."

Those are the kind of comments that make you think Riley won't be in a hurry to pour it on against Texas Tech if he gets the chance, though I don't think he will as this should be a close game throughout, just like it was when Texas Tech played Oklahoma State and WVU before.

"We need to play better," head coach Kliff Kingsbury said. "I felt like, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, we had a chance to win those games. Last week, even in the fourth quarter, we were driving before that interception and had a chance to win the game. But you can't turn the ball over three times."

Plays on a road team (TEXAS TECH) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS since 1992.  Texas Tech is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games off a home loss, including 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The value on this big dog is too good to pass up this weekend.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +8

This is one of the better under-the-radar rivalries in college football between border rivals Iowa and Minnesota.  They certainly have one of the better trophies of any rivalry with the massive Floyd of Rosedale at stake.  I like getting more than a touchdown here with the underdog Minnesota Golden Gophers.

These are two similar teams who are both 4-3 right now.  Both teams tend to struggle on offense, but both have made up for it by being very good on defense.  I just feel like this game is going to be decided by a touchdown or less either way given these team profiles.

Iowa has lost three of its last four games, though all four losses did come by 7 points or less.  And four of Iowa's five games against Power 5 opponents this season have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The lone exception was the misleading 45-16 home win over lowly Illinois.  But that was a 17-13 game late in the third quarter with Illinois driving before an 89-yard interception return TD.  The Hawkeyes outscored the Fighting Illini 21-0 in the fourth, but they only outgained them by 6 yards for the game.

Minnesota has had a knack for playing in close games against Power 5 opponents too.  Three of its five games that fit that description have been decided by 7 points or less.  They beat Oregon State 48-14 on the road, but lost 17-31 at Purdue.  However, the Golden Gophers were winning that game 17-16 at Purdue with less than three minutes to go.  That was a misleading loss for them.

Minnesota's defense will keep it in this ball game.  The Golden Gophers are only giving up 19.0 points, 317 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  Iowa is only averaging 26.1 points, 350 yards per game and 5.3 per play offensively.  Iowa is giving up 381 yards per game and 5.2 per play defensively.

Iowa hasn't been a strong against the run as it usually is.  The Hawkeyes are allowing 146 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry against teams that average 145 per game and 4.1 per carry.  So they have only been an average team against the run.  Minnesota, which rushes for 188 yards per game and 4.2 per carry, will find some success on the ground.  It also helps that the stud RB duo of Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith are both listed as probable this week and should both be ready to go.

Conversely, Iowa is normally a great running team, but that hasn't been the case this year.  The Hawkeyes are only averaging just 132 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  Minnesota has been able to stop the run, giving up 134 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  You have to think that the team that runs the ball better in this one will have the advantage, and based on the numbers, that edge goes to the Gophers.

PJ Fleck is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a non-cover where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Fleck is 20-8 ATS in all road lined games as a head coach.  Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games off two straight conference games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Minnesota is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.