Sports Picks & Predictions

15* USC/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +5

The betting public is all over Notre Dame in the wake of the Steve Sarkisian firing, driving this line up from -2 to -7 and back down to -5. I believe the firing is actually going to work in favor of the Trojans, who simply needed a change. Look back to two years ago when Ed Orgeron took over for a fired Lane Kiffin. The Trojans went 7-2 over their final nine games that year when they were left for dead.

Orgeron found out that he would not be retained as the head coach the next year, so he quit at the end of the regular season. That left offensive coordinator Clay Helton to coach the bowl game, and the players responded well. They crushed Fresno State 45-20 as 6-point favorites under the guidance of Helton. That’s important because Helton has been named the interim head coach now, and several of these players were with him in 2013. I expect them to respond well again.

I would still argue that USC is one of the most talented teams in the country despite some poor results in home losses to Stanford and Washington. But you don’t have to look too deep to find the potential of this team. They opened the season with blowout home wins over Arkansas State (55-6) and Idaho (59-9), and they went on the road and crushed a very good Arizona State team 42-14. That’s the same Sun Devils squad that won 38-23 at UCLA.

The numbers also show that the Trojans are an elite team still. They are putting up 39.8 points and 494.8 yards per game on offense, and their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 17.4 points and 387.5 yards per game. They have the luxury of having arguably the best quarterback in the country on their side in senior Cody Kessler. He has completed 69.5 percent of his passes for 1,453 yards with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

Kessler had a monster game against this Notre Dame team last year. He completed 32 of 40 passes for 372 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions to lead the Trojans to a 49-14 victory. While that game was at home, the Trojans have had no trouble winning in South Bend, either. They have actually won five of their last six visits to Notre Dame with their only loss coming by a final of 10-14 in 2013.

Notre Dame comes in overvalued due to going 5-1 against the spread in all games this season.  This is a public team as it is, and the public isn't going to stop backing the Fighting Irish after the start they have gotten off to.  But they have played a very easy schedule to this point with Texas, Virginia, Georgia Tech, UMass and Navy resulting in their five wins, and their lone loss coming at Clemson in their toughest game of the season.  USC will be the best team that they have faced yet.

USC is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 10 points or more. It is coming back to win by an average of 16.7 points per game in this spot. The Trojans are also 7-0 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last three years. They are coming back to win by 21.7 points per game in this spot. And to cap it off, USC is 9-0 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, coming back to win by 21.6 points per game.  These three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Trojans.  Also, the Trojans will have had extra time to rest and prepare after playing last Thursday.  Take USC Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on TCU -20.5

The TCU Horned Frogs will make easy work of the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  Many are calling this a letdown spot for the Horned Frogs off their comeback 52-45 victory over Kansas State last week, but I'm not buying it.  TCU is on a mission to win the Big 12 this season and will not take Iowa State lightly.

We saw what happened in what was a letdown spot following a 55-52 win at Texas Tech three weeks ago.  TCU came back the next week and crushed Texas 50-7 at home in a lopsided affair.  I look for a similar result this week after that Kansas State win, which should have been a bigger blowout because the Horned Frogs outgained the Wildcats by 158 yards.

In fact, the Horned Frogs have outgained all six of their opponents by at least 108 yards during their 6-0 start.  They outgained Texas by 291, Texas Tech by 143, SMU by 212 and Stephen F. Austin by 460.  The Horned Frogs are outgaining the opposition by an average of 228.7 yards per game this season.  That's the sign of an elite team and one that's a national title contender.

TCU is even better on offense this season than it was last year, if that's even possible.  it is putting up 51.0 points and 615.5 yards per game behind the play of Heisman trophy candidate Trevone Boykin.  The defense hasn't been as bad as most think as the Horned Frogs are only giving up 5.1 yards per play against opponents who average 5.5 per play.

Iowa State's defense has no shot at stopping TCU, and thus no chance of covering.  The Cyclones played the best team that they have faced this season last week in Texas Tech, and they were annihilated.  They gave up a ridiculous 776 total yards in a 66-31 road loss to the Red Raiders.  TCU is a similar team to Texas Tech, but better.

Last year, TCU embarrassed Iowa State 55-3.  This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs outgained the Cyclones 722-236, or by 484 total yards.  It's not going to take another 52-point blowout to cover this spread as the Horned Frogs only need to win by 21.  That shouldn't be a problem because their offense is going to score at will.

Iowa State is 0-7 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game over the past three seasons. It is coming back to lose by an average of 28.8 points per game in this spot.  The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 32.9 points per game in this spot.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -4

The Oklahoma Sooners are still very much alive for the Big 12 title after their slip-up last week against the Texas Longhorns.  I believe that loss will have them re-focused this week and ready to get back on track against a Kansas State team that is reeling after blowing a late lead to TCU last week.

Indeed, I think Kansas State is in the much worst spot mentally in this one.  They have opened 0-2 in Big 12 play with a 2-point loss to Oklahoma State and a 7-point loss to TCU.  But both of those games were bigger blowouts than the final scores showed.  Kansas State was outgained by 139 yards by Oklahoma State and by 158 yards against TCU.

In a 39-33 overtime win against Louisiana Tech at home, the Wildcats were also outgained by 96 yards.  The Wildcats are now actually getting outgained by an average of 27.6 yards per game on the season.  They aren't as good as they have been in year's past, and this Oklahoma team is the best that Bob Stoops has had in a few years.  I look for that to play out in this game Saturday with the Sooners easily able to cover as small favorites.

There's no question that this is the best offense Stoops has had in a while.  Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield has made a huge different.  He is leading the Sooners to an average of 37.0 points, 473.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play against opposing defenses that allow 27.3 points, 423 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

Oklahoma has also been better defensively this season than it is getting credit for.  The Sooners are holding the opposition to 22.6 points, 364.0 yards per game and 4.6 per play.  That's impressive when you consider that those opponents average 32.1 points, 442 yards per game and 5.7 per play against everyone else.

Oklahoam wants revenge from a 31-30 home loss to Kansas State last year.  The Sooners missed a chip shot field goal at the end of the game that would have won it.  They outgained the Wildcats 533-385 for the game, or by 148 total yards.  The road team has actually gone 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, so home-field advantage has meant nothing.  Oklahoma won 41-31 at Kansas State in 2013 and 58-17 at Kansas State in 2011.

In fact, Oklahoma is 5-0 in its last five trips to Manhattan with all five victories coming by 10 points or more.  The Sooners have won by an average of 18.8 points per game in their last five road meetings with the Wildcats.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Sooners are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. loss.  In fact, the Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since 1999, a span of 34 straight wins following a loss.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +7

The betting public has steamed Michigan from a 3-point favorite all the way up to an 8.5-point favorite, and it's now back down to 7. They love backing this Michigan team because they have put together three straight shutouts and covers. The public has bet this line up to the point where the only choice is to take the value with the Spartans if you are going to play this game at all.

It’s the perfect storm. Michigan State is 6-0 despite going 0-6 against the spread this season. The betting public has lost a lot of money backing the Spartans, while I have made hay fading them. I went against them with success against Air Force, Central Michigan and Purdue. But I know when to shift gears when the price is right, and there’s no question that the price couldn’t be any better on the Spartans now in the role of underdogs.

The Spartans have actually held double-digit leads in all six of their games this season.  But they have allowed several backdoor covers to their opponents when they were covering late.  But because they have taken their foot off the gas in the second half of games, they have gone 0-6 against the spread this season.  It will be interesting to see what this team can do this week when it goes full-throttle for four quarters.

Michigan State will be out to make a statement in this game as it continues to slide in the rankings. The Spartans were ranked as high as No. 2 after their win over Oregon, but they have slid all the way down to No. 7 now despite continuing to win. They need a high-profile win over a team like the Wolverines to boost their playoff résumé, and this is their chance to get it. I look for them to take full advantage.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Michigan. The last two haven’t even been close. The Spartans won 29-6 at home as 4-point favorites in 2013 while outgaining the Wolverines 394-168. They won in an even bigger blowout 35-11 at home last year, outgaining the Wolverines 446-186.

While Michigan does have the better defense, its numbers are skewed a bit because it has faced mostly awful offenses. The Wolverines’ opponents only average 26.4 points, 368 yards per game and 5.2 per play this season. That’s a very soft slate. Michigan State’s opponents average 30.7 points, 424 yards per game and 5.9 per play. The Spartans have faced the much more difficult schedule in terms of opposing offenses.

I do give a slight edge to the Michigan defense, though, but there’s no denying that Michigan State has the better offense. The Spartans are putting up 31.3 points per game this season and still haven’t played up to their capability because of injuries along the offensive line, but they are getting healthier by the week and should have almost everyone back. Connor Cook has thrown for 1,334 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, and I trust him a lot more in a big game than Jake Rudock.

Michigan hasn't faced a passing offense nearly as good as the one it will be up against Saturday.  Almost every team Michigan has gone up against has been primarily a running team.  Utah is 97th in passing offense, Oregon State is 116th , UNLV is 107th, BYU is 26th, Maryland is 109th and Northwestern is 115th.  While that 31-0 win over BYU looks nice, the fact of the matter is that Michigan caught the Cougars in a great spot.  They had just lost to UCLA 23-24 the previous week and were out of gas due to a brutal early schedule.

Michigan’s offensive numbers are swayed a bit due to defensive touchdowns. Yet the Wolverines are still only scoring 29.5 points per game this season. I do not trust Rudock in this big game situation. He cost them in their biggest game thus far against Utah with 3 interceptions, and I expect him to cost them in this one too. Rudock has thrown five touchdowns against six interceptions this season and is holding this offense back.

Michigan State has actually played its best football on the road in recent years. The Spartans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in road games off two straight wins over conference opponents over the last three seasons.  With the Spartans being 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings, these three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing them.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10.5

The Ole Miss Rebels should be much heavier favorites Saturday against the Memphis Tigers.  This is essentially like a college team playing a pro team in terms of talent level.  I look for that to be on display Saturday as the Rebels run away with this one.

This is the best team that Ole Miss has had since Hugh Freeze took over.  They are still national title contenders even with their fluky loss at Florida where they committed four turnovers and gave the game away.  They still have their road win at Alabama, and if they win out they will for sure be going to the four-team playoff.  That's why they won't be overlooking Memphis this week.

That's especially the case after they left Memphis hang around for three quarters last year.  They only led 7-3 at the end of three quarters before scoring 17 in the fourth for a 24-3 victory.  But that game was a much bigger blowout.  Ole Miss outgained Memphis 426-104 for the game, or by 322 total yards.  They held stud Memphis QB Paxton Lynch to just 13 of 81 passing for 81 yards with an interception.

Ole Miss once again has one of the best defenses in the country in 2015.  It is giving up 19.7 points, 337.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  While Memphis has an offense that is just as good as last year, it is going to find just gaining first downs against this Ole Miss defense difficult.  The Tigers haven't even seen a defense near the caliber of this one this season.

Indeed, Memphis has played one of the softest slates of defenses in the country.  The five opponents they've play have averaged giving up 40.6 points and 473 yards per game to all opponents this season.  They have played Missouri State, Kansas, Bowling Green, Cincinnati and South Florida.  The best defense they have played was South Florida, which held them to just 24 points last time out.  Memphis won't get to 20 against Ole Miss, which is going to make it impossible to stay within this 10.5-point spread.

The Rebels also have the best offense they have had in the Freeze era in 2015.  They are putting up 46.8 points and 527.8 yards per game while averaging 7.4 yards per play behind the talented Chad Kelly at quarterback.  Memphis has an awful defense, giving up 26.8 points and 438.4 yards per game with 5.7 per play.  Kelly and company will have a field day against this Memphis defense.  The sledding was a little tougher for Ole Miss against Memphis' defense last year, but that was a talented stop unit.  The Tigers only have three starters back on defense this year, and it's a glaring weakness.

Ole Miss is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a game where it committed three or more turnovers over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 20.3 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. awful passing defense that allow 275 or more yards per game.  The Rebels are 6-0 in their last six meetings with the Tigers with the last three wins all coming by 17 points or more.  The Rebels are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boise State -9.5

The Boise State Broncos are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. Normally I would look to fade these teams because they are usually overvalued, but I just don’t believe that’s the case with the Broncos in this game. They should be more than single-digit favorites over the Utah State Aggies with the way they are playing right now, even though this game is on the road.

Not only are the Broncos winning, they are dominating. They have outscored their last four opponents 202-24 while covering four straight by a combined 108 points. They even beat two solid teams on the road in Colorado State (41-10) and Virginia (56-14) that shows that their game travels well. They also shut out Hawaii (55-0) and Idaho State (52-0) at home during this stretch.

The fortune of the Broncos has turned ever since Brett Rypien, the son of former NFL QB Mark Rypien, was inserted at quarterback. The freshman has been lighting it up, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,057 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. I was worried about this team early because of their problems at QB, but that’s no longer an issue with Rypien under center.

Boise State now has an explosive offense to go with a defense that is just dominating. The Broncos returned eight starters on defense this season and were going to be good, but they have been even better than expected. They are only allowing 12.0 points and 259.5 yards per game this season. They are also allowing just 3.8 yards per play. They faced a good Colorado State offense last week, and held the Rams to just 256 yards while forcing three turnovers.

Utah State is overvalued after two straight wins and covers in my book. It won 33-18 at home against Colorado State as 5.5-point favorites, which gives these teams a common opponent. Again, Boise State beat Colorado State 41-10 on the road and outgained the Rams by 341 yards. Utah State only outgained the Rams by 74 yards at home. The Aggies beat an awful Fresno State team 56-14 last week, which is keeping this spread smaller than it should be.

Boise State is 12-0 in its last 12 meetings with Utah State with the last 10 wins coming by an average of 31 points per game. Each of the last 10 wins have come by 11 points or more as well, giving us a perfect 10-0 system since 2000 backing Boise State. The Broncos beat the Aggies 50-19 as only 10-point home favorites last year. They outgained Utah State 498-268, or by 230 total yards. A similar beat down can be expected in the rematch this year.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) – off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 42-11 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 10-1-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings at Utah State.  Bet Boise State Friday.

15* Auburn/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -2

The Auburn Tigers were a popular preseason pick to win the SEC West. I wasn’t one of them on that bandwagon as I believed Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M were the four best teams in the division. So far, I’ve been proven right. But at the same time, I realize when it’s time to jump on a team once the value is right.

Auburn would probably win the SEC East if it was in that division even with its struggles thus far in 2015. That’s because the East is so weak, and Kentucky isn’t even a top three team in the division. I believe Tennessee, Georgia and Florida are all much better than the Wildcats, and I believe Auburn would beat all three of those teams. So, yes, I believe that Auburn will win this game over Kentucky as well.

Auburn has played the much more difficult schedule this season, already having to face the likes of Louisville, LSU and Mississippi State. Kentucky is overvalued due to its 4-1 record against an extremely easy schedule. The Wildcats have beaten the likes of Missouri, South Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette. They lost to the best team they’ve played in Florida.

Kentucky has been extremely fortunate in close games this year as all five of its games have been decided by 7 points or less. That means the Wildcats could easily be 1-4 instead of 4-1. But the most concerning thing about the Wildcats is that they have played awful against two non-conference opponents that they were expected to roll.

Indeed, they needed overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky 34-27 last time out as 27.5-point favorites. They only outgained Eastern Kentucky by 21 yards in that game. They also only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 40-33 at home as 17-point favorites in the opener. They were actually outgained by 44 yards by the Rajin’ Cajuns. The Wildcats are getting outgained 365.6 to 368.4 on the season, which isn’t the sign of a 4-1 team.

Auburn has simply owned Kentucky through the years. It is 8-0 in its last eight visits to Lexington with its last loss there coming all the way back in 1966. The Wildcats are 1-10 against SEC West opponents since 2010.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) – off a home win, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Auburn Thursday.

20* Ark State/South Alabama Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas State -4.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are arguably the best team in the Sun Belt Conference this year. But because they have opened just 2-3, they are flying a little under the radar right now. When you look at the losses, it’s easy to see why this team has already suffered three defeats.

The three losses have come at USC, vs Missouri, and at Toledo. These are three teams who have been ranked in the Top 25 at various points in the season. The Red Wolves nearly upset Missouri in a 20-27 home loss in Week 2. Star QB Fredi Knighten suffered a groin injury in that game, and he has missed each of the team’s three games since. But Knighten is expected to start against South Alabama on Tuesday as he is finally recovered from that injury.

Arkansas State had little trouble with Idaho last week even in the absence of Knighten. It led the Vandals 49-21 early in the 4th quarter before allowing a couple of garbage touchdowns late to make the final score 49-35. I believe that final being closer than the game really was also has the Red Wolves undervalued here.

Without Knighten, the Red Wolves have really gotten their ground game going. They rushed for 344 yards in a 70-7 win over Missouri State, and 333 yards in that win over Idaho last week. This ground attack is going to find plenty of holes against a South Alabama defense that is giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry against teams that average 174 yards per game and 4.1 per carry. This is one of the worst rush defenses in the country.

South Alabama is overvalued due to its 3-2 start to the season. Remember, this is a team that returned the fewest starters (5) in the conference, and it will be up against an Arkansas State team that returned 15 starters from last year. The Jaguars did have a good win at San Diego State (34-27) in Week 3, but their other two wins have come against lowly Gardner Webb and Troy teams.

More telling was their blowout losses to the two best teams they have played this year. They lost to Nebraska 9-48 on the road and were outgained by 229 yards. Nebraska is 2-4 this season. They also lost to NC State 13-63 at home and were outgained by 328 yards. NC State has opened 0-2 in ACC play with losses to Louisville and Virginia Tech.

Arkansas State is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against South Alabama over the last three years. The Red Wolves dominated the Jaguars 45-10 at home last year as 11-point favorites, outgaining them 400-201 for the game. Knighten threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 80 yards and a score to lead the way. Again, he’s expected to be healthy and ready to play in this game, and I expect the Red Wolves to improve to 4-0 against the Jaguars.

The Red Wolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas State is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. South Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. South Alabama is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +21.5

Being 0-5 really has the Wyoming Cowboys undervalued right now.  I've been impressed with the way they've played against some solid teams in Washington State, New Mexico and Appalachian State the last three weeks.  I have no doubt that they can hang around against Air Force and easily stay within 3 touchdowns this week.

Wyoming outgained Washington State 409-378 in a 14-31 road loss at 25.5-point favorites in a game that was closer than the final score.  Wyoming was only outgained 408-409 in a 28-38 home loss to New Mexico as 4-point underdogs.  The Cowboys also outgained Appalachian State 373-314 in a 13-31 road loss at 26-point dogs last week in a game that was also closer than the final score.  Those three performances, especially the way they played defensively against a great Appalachian State offense, makes me believe they can hang around for four quarters.

Air Force is coming off a griding 11-33 road loss at Navy last week that had to take a lot out of them.  Now they'll be up against another run-heavy offense in Wyoming, which averages 169 yards per game.  But the Cowboys are vastly improved offensively this season due to the addition of former Indiana transfer Carson Coffman, averaging 228 passing yards per game.  Coffman is completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 1,087 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on the year.

Wyoming has owned Air Force the past two seasons.  It beat Air Force 17-13 at home last year as 1-point underdogs, and rolled to a 56-23 road win in 2013 as 4-point favorites.  I see no way that Air Force should be this heavily favored a year later, but the fact that the Cowboys are 0-5 has them so undervalued right now as stated before.

Air Force is 3-17 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Cowboys area perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Air Force.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Cal/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +8

I believe that Utah Utes to be overvalued here. The last impression the betting public has of them is beating Oregon 62-20 on the road and covering the spread by 52.5 points. They see that result and think that Utah is all of a sudden an elite team, and most of the bets are on Utah because of it. But this line has been dropping since opening at 8, which means the big money is on California, and I agree that it should be.

There’s no doubt that any win in Eugene is a good one, but this Oregon team is clearly down with two losses already. The Ducks rank 103rd in the country in total defense as they are giving up 441.4 yards per game this season. Not to mention, starting quarterback Vernon Adams was hurt in the Utah game and only attempted seven passes, one of which went for a touchdown. So the Ducks had to alter their gameplan and went with backup Jeff Lockie for the final three quarters. It was a 6-6 game before Adams went out with an injury.

What concerns me most about this Utah team is its performance in the previous three games. It beat Michigan 24-17 at home despite getting outgained by 18 yards, it beat Utah State 24-14 at home despite getting outgained by 46 yards, and it only outgained Fresno State by 15 yards in its 45-24 road win. That’s the same Fresno State team that has lost to Ole Miss by 52, San Jose State by 26 and San Diego State by 14.

I also believe that the No. 5 national ranking will go to Utah players’ heads this week. It has been a bad omen to be this highly ranked, just ask Ohio State, Michigan State and Ole Miss. Ohio State is 1-4 against the spread this season, Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread, and Ole Miss is 0-2 against the spread with an ugly loss to Florida ever since being ranked No. 3. With a high ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that is hard to live up to week to week.

California is probably the most improved team in the entire country this season. You could make a case for other teams for sure, but the fact that the Golden Bears are 5-0 when their season win total was 5.5 speaks volumes about how far this team has come. Of course, it wasn’t a surprise to me because they returned 17 starters and were projected to have all 22 upperclassmen starters as juniors or seniors. Don’t look now, but the Golden Bears are legitimate contenders to win the Pac-12 this season.

After thumping Grambling and San Diego State a combined 108-21 in its first two games, California led Texas 45-24 in the fourth quarter on the road but only ended up winning 45-44 after a missed extra point by Texas. That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score showed, but most folks look at a close win like that over a down Texas team and don’t give the Golden Bears much respect.

Two weeks ago, Cal went on the road and beat Washington 30-24 in another game that was a bigger blowout than the score showed. Cal outgained Washington by 222 total yards and its defense held the Huskies to just 259 yards while forcing five turnovers. A 34-28 win over Washington State last week also has the betting public concerned with this team as they only outgained the Cougars by 66 yards. But that was clearly a letdown spot for the Golden Bears as they were coming off two big road wins over Texas & Washington with this big road game against Utah on deck.

California has one of the best offenses in the country. It is putting up 43.4 points, 527.8 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play against opponents who allow 35.3 points, 443 yards per game and 5.8 per play. Jared Goff is a possible No. 1 draft pick and can keep the Golden Bears in any game. The junior is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,630 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt.

The defense is improved, too, allowing 23.4 points and 387 yards per game this year.  Just to show how improved this defense is, let's look at what they did last year compared to this year.  They allowed 90 points and nearly 1,200 total yards in losses to Washington and Washington State last year.  This year, they held those two teams to a combined 52 points and 662 total yards, cutting the numbers nearly in half.

The numbers just don’t add up for Utah. They are outscoring teams by 20.0 yards per game despite only outgaining them by 20.0 yards per game. This is the sign of an overrated team and one that won’t be able to live up to that No. 5 ranking. California is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games overall. The Utes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Kyle Whittingham is 7-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet California Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -2.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in college football.  This is a team you need to keep your eye on going forward.  They were much better than their 3-9 record last year, and they returned 16 starters from that team.  In the end, I look for the Spartans to be one of the most improved teams in the country when it's all said and done.

After a slow start to the season with road losses against quality opponents in Air Force and Oregon State, the Spartans have looked much better the last two weeks.  They crushed Fresno State 49-23 at home while outgaining them by a whopping 296 total yards and limiting the Bulldogs to just 247 yards of total offense.

I was just as impressed with their 21-35 loss at Auburn last week as they outgained the Tigers by 64 yards and had every chance to win that game, but they finished -4 in turnover differential.  If they can hang with a team the caliber of Auburn, there's no doubt they should crush arguably the worst team in the Mountain West in UNLV this week.

This is a rebuilding year for UNLV, which went just 2-11 last year and returned 10 starts from that team.  UNLV has managed to go 2-3 to this point, but its two wins have come against Idaho State and Nevada, which is down this year as well.  It was beat by 21 at Michigan, by 34 at home to UCLA, and by 8 at Northern Illinois, which has lost three straight games as we speak.

The numbers for San Jose State are very impressive.  It is putting up 439.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play offensively, while giving up 333.0 yards per game and 5.2 per play defensively.  That's even more impressive when you consider the quality of competition faced so far in New Hampshire, Air Force, Oregon State, Fresno State and Auburn.

San Jose State has owned UNLV in recent years, too.  It is 5-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last five meetings.  It beat UNLV 34-24 on the road in 2013 while outgaining the Rebels 492-351.  Last year the Spartans crushed the Rebels 33-10 at home while holding a 542-221 yard edge as well.  This game won't be close, either.

San Jose State is 18-5 ATS as a road favorite since 1992.  UNLV is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a road win over a conference opponent.  The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  The Spartans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take San Jose State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +15.5

The Boise State Broncos could not possibly be more overvalue than they are right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since losing 24-35 at BYU.  Now only are they winning, they are dominating by outscoring Idaho State, Virginia & Hawaii a combined 161-14 while covering the spread by a combined 81 points.  It's safe to say that the betting public is all over them now, driving this line up from -11.5 to -15.5.  This is the perfect time to sell high on the Broncos.

It's also a great time to buy low on Colorado State, which has gone 1-3 straight up in its last four games and 0-2-1 ATS in its last three.  The Rams could easily be 4-1 right now instead of 2-3, but they lost in overtime to a pair of Power 5 conference teams in Minnesota (20-23) and Colorado (24-27).  This is still a very good team that returned 15 starters from a squad that went 10-3 last year.

Despite being just 2-3, the Rams have put up impressive numbers that lead me to believe they are much better than their record.  Their offense is averaging 32.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, while their defense is giving up just 361.6 yards per game, so they are outgaining teams by roughly 83 yards per contest.  But what has held them down is the sixth-most turnovers (14) in the FBS, which is kind of fluky and will turn around.

After playing three straight cupcakes in Idaho State, Virginia & Hawaii, Boise State will meet its match this week.  The other two games that Boise State have played are BYU and Washington, which are their two toughest opponents outside of Colorado State up to this point.  They only beat Washington 16-13 as 13-point home favorites, and they lost to BYU 24-35 as 2-point road favorites.

Colorado State has played Boise State very tough the last two years.  It lost 30-42 at home as 7-point dogs back in 2013 and should have won that game as it outgained the Broncos 626-437.  The Rams were only beaten 24-37 as 7.5-point road underdogs last year as well.  As you'll notice, the lines for those two games were right around a touchdown, and the line for this 2015 meeting is 15.5.  That fact alone shows you how overvalued this Broncos team is right now.

The Rams are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Colorado State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Take Colorado State Saturday.

15* Navy/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on Navy +14

This is a very tough spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest game of the season last week in a 22-24 loss at Clemson where they missed a 2-point conversion late that would have forced overtime.  Now they will suffer a hangover from that loss.  They'll also be looking ahead to their next huge game against USC next week.  They won't bring the kind of focus it takes to put away a very good Navy team by more than two touchdowns.

That has been the case each of the last two seasons, too.  Navy only lost 34-38 at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs in 2013.  It was only outgained 419-506 by the Fighting Irish.  Navy also only lost 39-49 on a neutral field to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs last year.  The Midshipmen were only outgained 454-533 in the loss.  Now this is the best team Navy has had in quite some time.

Indeed, Navy is a perfect 4-0 this season with four wins by double-digits.  That includes a 45-21 win over an ECU team that nearly upset Florida and did upset Virginia Tech.  That also includes a 33-11 win over an Air Force team that won 10 games last year and is solid again this season.  Keenan Reynolds is the best triple-option QB that Navy has ever had.  He has rushed for 488 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season.  He is great with the football, too, as the Midshipmen have only turned the ball over once this year.

Navy is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.  It is actually outscoring these favorites by 5.3 points per game in this spot.  The Midshipmen are 73-35 ATS in their last 108 road games overall.  Notre Dame is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. awful passing teams that average 125 or fewer passing yards per game since 1992.  The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +11

This is an awful spot for Texas Tech, which is a big reason why this line is dropping when the betting public is all over the Red Raiders.  That means the big money is coming in on Iowa State, and I couldn't agree more that it should be this week.

Texas Tech is coming off a grueling 3-week stretch in which it has faced Arkansas, TCU and Baylor.  After beating Arkansas and nearly upsetting TCU, the Red Raiders couldn't keep up with Baylor in a 35-63 loss last week.  Now they'll really have nothing left in the tank to face Iowa State.  They also won't be able to get up for this game after playing three big-time opponents in a row.

That seems to be the case every time Texas Tech plays Iowa State as it doesn't take the Cyclones seriously.  Iowa State hasn't lost by more than 11 to Texas Tech in any of the last five seasons.  The Red Raiders won 34-31 last year, 42-35 in 2013 as 14-point favorites, and 24-13 in 2012.  Iowa State won 41-7 in 2011 as 15.5-point dogs and 52-38 in 2010 as 6.5-point dogs.  So the Cyclones have actually outscored the Red Raiders 172-145 in the last five meetings.

This is clearly an improved Iowa State team that could easily be 4-0 right now.  It has rolled at home over both Northern Iowa (31-7) and Kansas (38-13).  It led Iowa 17-10 in the second half before eventually losing 17-31 as the Hawkeyes tacked on a garbage TD late.  That's the same Iowa team that is 5-0 and just won at Wisconsin last week. The Cyclones also lost 23-30 at Toledo in double-overtime after missing a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it.  That's the same Toledo team that went on the road and beat Arkansas.  The Cyclones actually outgained the Rockets by 172 total yards in that game and never should have lost.

Plays against a home team (TEXAS TECH) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games over the last three seasons.  It is losing 29.2 to 51.0 on average in this spot.  The Red Raiders will come out flat Saturday and will likely get upset by the Cyclones, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +3.5

I would strongly argue that Tennessee should be 5-0 right now, but because this team is just 2-3, it is undervalued coming into this game against Georgia. I was high on the Volunteers coming into the season as I believed they were the best team in the SEC East. Despite the 2-3 record, I still feel like they are the best team in this side of the conference.

The Vols held a 17-3 lead over Oklahoma at home before allowing 14 points in the fourth quarter and eventually losing in double-overtime. They had a 27-14 lead over Florida with just over four minutes remaining before giving up two late touchdowns and losing 28-27 on the road. They also held a 14-0 lead over Arkansas last week before blowing it and losing 24-20 at home. That’s three double-digit blown leads in all three of their losses, which is nearly impossible.

The Volunteers have obviously played an extremely difficult schedule up to this point, too, which has them battle-tested heading into this game. Oklahoma and Florida are both ranked in the Top 11 and unbeaten. Florida rolled Ole Miss last week, while Oklahoma crushed West Virginia. Arkansas is still a very solid team, and Bowling Green is one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country. That tough schedule will aid the Vols in what is clearly a must-win game for them if they want to win the SEC East.

Georgia was exposed last week after playing a cake schedule in its first four games. I was all over Alabama last week because Georgia hadn’t played anyone. The Bulldogs first four opponents were Louisiana-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern with three of those games at home. In their only road game, they did beat Vanderbilt 31-14, but that game was closer than the final score. The Bulldogs only outgained the Commodores 422-400, or by 22 total yards. Allowing 400 yards to Vanderbilt was a sign of things to come for them last week.

Georgia was rocked 10-38 at home by Alabama as its one-dimensional rushing attack was shut down. The Crimson Tide forced four Georgia turnovers, including three by their quarterbacks. Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey finished a combined 11 of 31 passing for 106 yards with three interceptions against Alabama. The Bulldogs’ one-dimensional offense will have a hard time moving the ball on this improved Tennessee defense this week, too.

Not only is Tennessee motivated following three double-digit blown leads this year, it is also motivated from four straight crushing losses to Georgia. Indeed, the Bulldogs have won each of the last four meetings with Tennessee by 8 points or less. They won 20-12 in 2011, 51-44 in 2012, 34-31 (OT) in 2013, and 35-32 in 2014. But this will be by far the best Tennessee team that Georgia has faced during this span.  The Vols have a bye week on deck, so their entire focus will be on this game.  It’s simply revenge time for the Volunteers Saturday as they put their best foot forward this week.

One thing to look for is the advantage that Tennessee is going to have on special teams, too.  Georgia ranks last in the nation in kickoff returns at only 14 yards per return.  Georgia also ranks 119th in the country in punting with a net average of 32 net yards.  Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in kickoff returns and 6th in punting.  Winning the field position battle will aid them this week as well.

This is also a hangover spot for the Bulldogs as that game against Alabama last week was supposed to be the game of the week in college football.  Mark Richt is 3-11 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the head coach at Georgia.  He hasn't been good at getting his players to respond following a bad loss in SEC play.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14

The UMass Minutemen are showing solid value as two-touchdown underdogs to the Bowling Green Falcons Saturday. The betting public has fallen in love with Bowling Green the last few weeks and have been paid off handsomely for the most part.  They public loves their high-scoring offense, so they aren't afraid to lay a big number like this one.  But there's clearly value with UMass because of it.

Bowling Green had covered the spread in three straight games with a 48-27 win at Maryland, a 41-44 loss to Memphis at home, and a 35-28 win at Purdue.  The public was all over them last week, driving their line at Buffalo all the way up to -8 after starting out around -3.  The Falcons failed to cover with a 28-22 win.  That hasn't stopped the public from driving this line up from -12.5 to -14, though.

UMass is certainly an underrated team that I have been impressed with despite a 1-3 start.  Its three losses have come on the road to Colorado, at home to Temple, and at Notre Dame.  I was very impressed with a 23-25 loss to Temple as 13.5-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 20 yards against a Temple team that is 4-0 with impressive wins over Penn State and Cincinnati.

But the Minutemen were even more impressive last week in their 24-14 home win over Florida International.  Sure, the score looks close, but it was anything but close.  UMass actually outgained FIU by 307 total yards in the win.  It racked up 495 yards of total offense, while also coming through with by far its best defensive performance of the year while holding the Panthers to 188 total yards.  That's a good sign coming into this week against this high-octane BG attack.

UMass proved last year that it can score with Bowling Green.  It only lost 42-47 as 5.5-point home underdogs.  The Minutemen racked up 638 total yards on this Bowling Green defense last year.  Blake Frohnapfel, one of the most underrated QB's in the country, threw for 589 yards and five touchdowns against one interception in the loss.  Frohnapfel should find plenty of success through the air against a Bowling Green defense that is allowing 36.0 points and 482.4 yards per game this season.

UMass is 8-1 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last two years.  UMass is 6-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons.  Bowling Green is giving up 64.1% completions and 295 yards per game through the air this year.  Roll with UMass Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas Red River Rivalry Play on Texas +17

The Sooners could not possibly be much more overvalued than they are right now. They are coming off a 20-point win over West Virginia in their Big 12 opener last week. They forced five WVU turnovers which turned a close game into a blowout real quickly. Don’t expect them to be so fortunate in the turnover department again this week.

The betting public just remembers what happened last week, which is why the Sooners are overvalued. But the fact of the matter is that Oklahoma struggled in its two previous games. It had to erase a 17-3 deficit to Tennessee in the fourth quarter to win in overtime, and then it only beat Tulsa by 14 despite being 33.5-point favorites. They gave up a whopping 603 total yards to the Golden Hurricane in that game.  This team still has plenty of flaws and will struggle to put away the Longhorns by more than 17 points.

At the same time, Texas couldn’t be more undervalued right now. It is coming off a 50-7 road loss to TCU as 14-point underdogs, failing to cover the spread by 29 points. The Longhorns didn’t even score until just over five minutes to play in that game. The betting public sees that kind of loss and wants nothing to do with the Longhorns this week, forcing the oddsmakers to give them extra points.

But I know that Texas easily could have beaten two very good teams in California and Oklahoma State the previous two weeks, who are both ranked in the Top 25 and are a combined 10-0. They lost to California 44-45 despite outgaining the Bears by 102 total yards as they missed an extra point at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. They also missed a late field goal against Oklahoma State and lost 27-30. Those two efforts show what the Longhorns are capable of. After two crushing losses like that, it was only human nature for them to suffer a hangover last week at TCU.

The betting public has written off Texas each of the last two years heading into the Red River Rivalry, too. Texas was a 13.5-point underdog in 2013 and pulled off the outright upset in a dominant 36-20 win as it outgained Oklahoma 445-263. Last year, Texas was a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma and lost 26-31. But there’s no way the Longhorns should have lost that game when you consider they outgained the Sooners 482-232, or by 250 total yards. The Longhorns usually bring their best game against the Sooners, and I look for that to be the case again this year.

Charlie Strong is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced zero turnovers in all games he has coached. Strong is 13-2 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games in October.  Take Texas Saturday.

25* NC State/VA Tech CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2

Any time you can get Virginia Tech as a home underdog, or as a favorite of less than 3, it's worth a look. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Hokies as underdogs or small favorites there. Everyone is quick to count the Hokies out after their slow start to the season, which has provided some nice line value here to swoop in and back them.

Virginia Tech will come in determined after back-to-back losses to very good East Carolina and Pittsburgh teams by a combined 11 points. After all, the Hokies had the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes on the ropes in the opener at Lane Stadium before giving up 28 unanswered points and losing 24-42.

This is still a very talented Virginia Tech team that returned 16 starters from last year. Obviously, the loss of starting quarterback Michael Brewer to injury in the opener has set this team back. But they have outgained three of their last four opponents. They outgained Furman by 329 yards in a 42-3 win, outgained Purdue by 206 yards in a 51-24 road win, and outgained ECU by 29 yards despite losing 28-35 on the road.

After two straight losses, the Hokies are going to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field and make amends Friday night. They have the type of defense that will shut down this NC State offense. The Hokies are only giving up 355.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 47% of their passes against what is one of the best secondaries in the country.

NC State is overrated due to such a soft non-conference schedule. Its first four opponents this season were Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama. Yes, the Wolfpack blew out all four opponents by 24 points or more, but you would expect that from a Power 5 team against that kind of competition.

The Wolfpack had their first true test last week against Louisville, and they failed miserably. They lost 13-30 at home and were outgained by 78 yards in that contest. Their offense only managed 228 total yards in the loss. That’s a Louisville defense that isn’t nearly as good as the one the Wolfpack will be up against Friday. Louisville has allowed 34 points to Houston and 31 to Auburn this season.

Virginia Tech is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games following a poor offensive performance where it gained 3.75 or fewer yards per game. The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Hokies are 41-17-2 ATS in their last 60 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Virginia Tech is the more battle-tested team coming into this one after playing the much tougher schedule up to this point.  Bet VA Tech Friday.

20* Washington/USC Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC -16.5

I still believe that the USC Trojans are one of the best teams in the country and a legitimate national title contender even though they lost to Stanford. The Cardinal simply wanted that game more after losing to the Trojans by a field goal each of the two previous seasons. The Cardinal always play the Trojans tough, too.

But USC proved in its last game that it is every bit as good as I thought it was. It went into Tempe and throttled Arizona State 42-14 as 4-point favorites. It racked up 455 total yards of offense behind five touchdown passes from Cody Kessler, and the defense forced four turnovers in the win.

Washington simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Kessler and this high-octane USC offense. The Trojans are putting up 46.7 points, 532.0 yards per game and 8.1 per play against teams that are only allowing 31.2 points, 408 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kessler is a Heisman Trophy contender, completing 73 percent of his passes for 1,297 yards with 15 touchdowns and only one interception through four games.

The Huskies were thoroughly outplayed in both of their losses to Boise State and California, which were bigger blowouts than the final scores would indicate. They were outgained by 158 yards in their 13-16 road loss to Boise State, and by 222 yards in their 24-30 home loss to California. But because those scores were close, the oddsmakers are giving the Huskies too much credit here.

Washington only managed 179 total yards against Boise State and 259 total yards against California. While Boise State does have a good defense, California’s stop unit is not very good this season. I believe this USC defense will be the best that the Huskies have faced yet, too. It would be hard to envision this Washington offense topping 14 points in this game Thursday night. That’s going to make it very difficult for the Huskies to stay within 17 points.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Washington) in a game involving two excellent passing teams who average at least 8.3 yards per attempt, after allowing 8 or more yards/attempt in their previous game are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1992. Cal’s Jared Goff threw for 342 yards on this Washington defense last week. USC is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a road blowout win by 28 points or more.  Bet USC Thursday.

20* Clemson/Notre Dame Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -1.5

I believe this is where all the injuries finally catch up to Notre Dame. They are down six potential NFL Draft picks already, and while they obviously have good depth, it’s going to bite them sooner rather than later. They were able to escape with a 34-27 road win at Virginia and a 30-22 home win over Notre Dame, but now they face the best team them have played all season.

Clemson is the real deal this year with one of the best offenses in the country and a defense that is better than it was expected to be with all of the losses during the offseason. Deshaun Watson is one of the most electric quarterbacks in the country as this Clemson offense thrived last year when he was healthy, and it struggled when he wasn’t able to play.

Watson is completing 74.4 percent of his passes for 6451 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 93 yards. He led them to an average of 45.0 points per game in wins over Wofford and Appalachian State before managing just 20 points in a 20-17 win at Louisville.

But that 3-point win at Louisville was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tigers outgained the Cardinals by 129 total yards.  The Cardinals got a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarterback to make it interesting.  I believe this 3-point win over Louisville has the betting public scared off, which provides us with some extra value here.

The Clemson defense has been absolutely sensational again this season. It is only giving up 12.3 points and 261.0 yards per game just one year after leading the country in total defense. That’s really impressive when you consider the three opponents it has played average 29.8 points and 400 yards per game. So the Tigers have held their opponents to 17.5 points and 139 yards per game below their season averages.

This is a great spot for Clemson. It will have been 16 days since the Tigers last played on September 17 against Louisville. They have been able to watch both the Georgia Tech and UMass games that Notre Dame has played to get prepared for them. They will be well-rested and chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this game.

Clemson is a very tough place to play. The Tigers are 28-2 at home over the past five seasons as they have one of the best home-field advantages in all of college football. Their two losses came to Florida State in 2013 and South Carolina in 2012. Florida State won the national championship in 2013 and South Carolina finished with 11 wins in 2012.

Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Fighting Irish are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +14

This line is a classic overreaction based on what happened last week.  Arizona State was blown out at home by USC 14-42, while UCLA crushed Arizona on the road 56-30.  Both games were expected to be close according to the odds in Las Vegas, but both turned into blowouts.  But if they had set a line for ASU @ UCLA prior to last week, it would have been UCLA by 7 points or less.  I believe we're getting at least a full TD of value here now this week.

UCLA benefited from Arizona losing starting QB Anu Solomon early in that game last week.  The Bruins only outgained the Wildcats by 29 yards even with the loss of Solomon.  But that game was decided by three Arizona turnovers and a +3 turnover differential for the Bruins.  I don't think that win was as impressive as it appears at all, especially since I already had Arizona tabbed as one of the most overrated teams in the country.

Meanwhile, Arizona State lost to the best team in the Pac-12 in USC last week, and I was on the Trojans in that game.  But it wasn't the 42-14 blowout it would appear.  USC only outgained Arizona State 455-454, or by a single yard.  That game was put out of reach once ASU fumbled while it was going into the end zone, and it was returned 94 yards for a touchdown.  Had the Sun Devils scored on that play, they could have made a run.

After being +29 in turnover differential the past two seasons combined, the Sun Devils are -3 so far this season.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot.  They have fumbled a whopping 13 times already and lost 7 of those fumbles.  To compare, they only fumbled 15 times last year and lost 4 of them.  They have simply been unlucky in the early going, but I still believe the Sun Devils are one of the better teams in the Pac-12.

"Obviously our guys know that our backs are against the wall," Graham said Monday. "And everything, every issue we have is self-inflicted and we've just got to get those things corrected and take it upon ourselves to go to work and get it done."

The Sun Devils have responded well recently following a difficult loss.  In 2013, Arizona State suffered a tough loss to Stanford and scored 62 points in a rout over USC the next week. The Sun Devils followed a blowout loss to UCLA last season by beating USC on a Hail Mary the following week.

Arizona State is going to be out for revenge from its 62-27 loss to UCLA last year as well.  The Sun Devils actually outgained the Bruins 626-580 in that game as it was obviously a lot closer than the final score showed.  But turnovers did them in again as they were -4 in turnover differential.  Mike Bercovici went 42 of 68 for 488 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss.

UCLA only beat a bad Virginia team at home by 18 and only beat BYU 24-23 in its two home games this season.  That's the same BYU team that lost 31-0 at Michigan last week, and the same Virginia team that lost 14-56 at home to Boise State last week.  Arizona State is by far the best team that the Bruins will have faced.

The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 20 points or less in their previous game.  The Bruins are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 October games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Arizona State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +45

I love fading LSU when it is laying massive points to non-conference opponents.  It's an easy choice because LSU doesn't play the brand of football that allows it to run up the scoreboard.  The Tigers play a conservative, run-heavy, ball-control approach that eats up clock and allows for big underdogs to cover these numbers with ease.

The biggest thing here is that LSU is not going to be concerned with running up the scoreboard.  It will be looking ahead to its next SEC game on the road against South Carolina.  I was not impressed with LSU's 34-24 win at Syracuse last week as 23-point favorites.  That was another situation where this team was simply laying too many points, but even though they didn't cover, oddsmakers aren't even factoring that into the line this week because they know the betting public will only back LSU.

Eastern Michigan is coming off two straight home losses and non-covers to Ball State (17-28) and Army (36-58).  Those two losses certainly look awful in the minds of the betting public, which has created some extra value here with this line.  I was impressed with this team the first two weeks as they flashed their potential and showed that they are certainly improved this year.

They lost to Old Dominion 34-38 as 6-point home underdogs in the opener due to having a -3 turnover differential.  They outgained the Monarchs by 31 yards in that loss.  Then they went on the road and upset Wyoming 48-29 as 13-point dogs and outgained the Cowboys by 44 yards in the win.  While these last two losses to Army and Ball State are concerning, it doesn't matter a whole lot when you're catching 45 points against a team that likely won't score 45 points themselves.

Eastern Michigan has shown me enough on offense to know that it can score a few times on this LSU defense.  It is averaging 33.7 points and 438.2 yards per game this season and 6.5 yards per play.  The improvement this team has made is almost exclusively due to this offense.  Brogan Robach is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 877 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions in just over 12 quarters of action this year.

Plays on road underdogs (E MICHIGAN) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (E MICHIGAN) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-42 (66.7%) ATS since 1992.

LSU is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -6.5

I believe the Ole Miss Rebels are the best team in college football this season. They showed that with their 43-37 road win at Alabama two weeks ago which followed up home wins over Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State by a combined 149-24 margin. They returned 16 starters this season in what is Hugh Freeze’s most talented team yet with the tremendous job he has done in recruiting.

I know a letdown spot when I see one, and that’s why I was on Vanderbilt +27 at Ole Miss last week. The Rebels weren’t going to be focused following their upset win over Alabama, and that proved to be the case. They made plenty of mental mistakes in that game and only wound up beating Vanderbilt 27-16. But they still outgained the Commodores by 150 total yards in the win.  Now Florida will have Ole Miss' full attention this week.

The Gators are 4-0 right now when they easily could be 1-3. They have won three straight games over ECU (31-24) at home, Kentucky (14-9) on the road and Tennessee (28-27) at home all by a touchdown or less. If they struggled to put those three teams away, they stand no chance of keeping this game close against the best team in college football.  They had a miracle win over Tennessee last week when they trailed by 13 with just over four minutes to play.  That win is keeping this line lower than it should be.

Ole Miss is loaded with firepower on offense this season as it’s averaging 54.7 points and 543.5 yards per game. Its defense is one of the best in the country once again just one year after it only allowed 16.0 points per game last year. The Rebels are yielding 19.2 points and 357.7 yards per game despite playing a pretty tough schedule up to this point.

Florida doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up. It was held to just 14 points with only four minutes to go against Tennessee last week. It was held to 14 points for the entire game against Kentucky the previous week. The Gators do have a solid defense, but they did allow 24 points to East Carolina and 27 to Tennessee. Ole Miss’ offense is a completely different animal.

Ole Miss is 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. Freeze is 28-15 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss. The Gators are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Alabama/Georgia CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama +1.5

I’m not ready to count out the Crimson Tide just yet. If they lose this game, they’ll have no shot at winning a national title this year. They can’t afford two losses because they probably won’t be winning the SEC West if that’s the case. I expect Nick Saban to rally the troops this week and let them know what’s at stake.

After all, this is the first time that Alabama has been an underdog in 73 games. Saban can use that as extra motivation as well. The last time they were an underdog came in the 2009 SEC Championship Game against Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. The Crimson Tide won that game and went on to beat Texas for the National Championship.

While Georgia is probably the best team in the SEC East, it would only be somewhere around the 4th-best team in the SEC West, and that might be a little generous. I believe Ole Miss is the best team in the SEC West and I said that coming into the season as well. I’m glad they proved me right with their upset win over Alabama, but that loss by the Crimson Tide only has them undervalued here.

I also like the fact that Alabama is more battle-tested coming into this one. Having already played Wisconsin and Ole Miss, it will be ready for this showdown with Georgia. The Bulldogs have only played LA-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern. Well, it’s looking more and more like South Carolina and Vanderbilt are the two worst teams in the SEC. Plus, Georgia only outgained Vanderbilt by 22 total yards in its 31-14 victory. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Commodores racked up 400 yards on this Georgia defense.

I'm on Alabama this week for many of the same reasons I was on the Crimson Tide against Wisconsin in the opener. It's a perfect matchup for them.  The only teams Alabama struggles against are ones with mobile quarterbacks, and Georgia's Greyson Lambert is immobile.  Georgia relies heavily on its running game with Nick Chubb and company, and that plays right into Alabama's hands.

Indeed, Alabama is only giving up 57 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  So, they are holding their opponents to 106 yards and 2.3 per carry less than their season averages.  They've already faced two solid rushing offenses in Wisconsin and Ole Miss.  They held the Badgers to 40 yards on 21 carries and the Rebels to 92 yards on 32 carries.  That's some pretty impressive stuff right there.

Alabama is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 road games following an ATS loss that resulted in a straight up win. The Crimson Tide are 26-12 ATS in their last 28 road games versus good rushing defenses that give up 3.25 or fewer yards per carry. Georgia is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GEORGIA) – off a home win, after the first month of the season are 53-16 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Alabama going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall really has the Crimson Tide undervalued coming into this game.  I still believe this is the second-best team in the SEC, and that will be proven this weekend.  Roll with the Crimson Tide Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +7

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They had one of the best offseason hires in the nation by nabbing former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who also stepped into a great situation since the Golden Hurricane returned 16 starters.  The early results have been very promising.

The Golden Hurricane beat Florida Atlantic 47-44 in overtime at home in their opener.  They then went on the road and throttled New Mexico 40-21 as 6.5-point underdogs.  Then they gave Oklahoma more than it wanted in a 38-52 road loss at 33.5-point underdogs.  I watched most of that Oklahoma game and came away very impressed with this offense.

It's hard not to be considering Tulsa gained a whopping 603 total yards against a good Oklahoma defense.  Tulsa is averaging 41.7 points and 607.0 yards per game this season already, so Montgomery has clearly taken his offensive genius from Baylor and used it here at Tulsa to perfection.

Dane Evans is having a big senior season already, completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,172 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Golden Hurricane have the best duo of WR's in the AAC in Keyarris Garrett (26, 454, 1 TD) and Keevan Lucas (19, 342, 5 TD).

Houston is also an improved team under former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman.  But Herman didn't step into nearly as good of a situation as the Cougars returned only 11 starters this year.  They are 3-0, but they have faced a very easy schedule with Tennessee Tech, Louisville and Texas State.  They did upset Louisville 34-31 on the road, but that's a Louisville team that is 1-3 right now, so that win is looking worse and worse by the week.

Tulsa has a huge scheduling advantage in this one.  The Golden Hurricane are coming off their first bye of the season, having a full 14 days in between games.  They needed that extra recovery time after the shootout against Oklahoma two weeks ago.  They also should be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after taking one of the best teams in the country in the Sooners right down to the wire.  Meanwhile, Houston played Texas State last week and won't be as prepared or fresh.

Tulsa only lost 28-38 at Houston last season as 19.5-point underdogs.  The Golden Hurricane actually held a 25-21 first down edge in that game, but they only lost due to being -3 in turnover differential.  They gave the ball away three times while the Cougars didn't commit one turnover.  I believe it's revenge time now as this is the best Tulsa team we have seen in quite some time, and they're catching a touchdown at home when they shouldn't be.

Houston is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Tulsa is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The Golden Hurricane are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Hurricane are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Tulsa is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following a bye week.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +22

I'll continue fading the Michigan State Spartans for the third straight time.  I did so successfully with Air Force +24.5 two weeks ago in a 35-21 Spartans home victory.  I also had Central Michigan +25 last week in a 30-10 Michigan State home win.  I wish I would have gone against the Spartans every week though since they're 0-4 against the spread.

Simply put, Michigan State is the single-most overrated team in the country.  It is ranked No. 2 in the country right now, and that fact alone has the Spartans overvalued.  They are simply laying too many points week in and week out due to their national ranking.  But the numbers show that this team really isn't very good, and may end up being outside of the Top 10 when it's all said and done.

Indeed, the Spartans have been outgained in three of the four games they've played in.  They only outgained Western Michigan by 69 yards in the opener, and then were outgained by 43 yards by Oregon, by 104 yards by Air Force, and by 16 yards by Central Michigan.  That 31-28 win over Oregon is looking worse and worse by the week.

The Spartans are only averaging 372.2 yards per game on offense, and their defense has taken a huge step back this season, allowing 395.7 yards per game thus far.  They are getting outgained by an average of 23.5 yards per game, which is not the sign of a team that should be ranked No. 2 in the country.

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in college football this season.  But that doesn't show up in the Boilermakers' record as they are just 1-3, but that also has them undervalued here.  This team could easily be 3-1 right now instead.

They led Marshall for most of the game before throwing a late pick-6 when they were driving to try and tie it, losing 31-41.  They missed a field goal late that could have beaten Bowling Green last week, but instead gave up a touchdown with only a few seconds remaining to lose 28-35.  That's a very good Bowling Green team, too.

Redshirt freshman David Blough was solid in his first career start against Bowling Green, going 29 of 39 for 340 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He also had a 1-yard TD run.  I believe he is the best starter on the team, and I like the focus of this team even after the tough start.

"We have a good locker room with a ton of leaders," sophomore linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley said. "We know we are not mentally out of it. We are just having execution problems. We have correctable issues that we can control and change."

Purdue has played Michigan State extremely tough through the years, especially here recently.  They have been at least 20.5-point underdogs in each of the last three meetings, and all three were decided by 14 points or less.  They only lost 31-45 as 21-point home dogs to MSU last year, 0-14 as 28-point road dogs in 2013, and 31-35 as 20.5-point road dogs in 2010.

In fact, Purdue hasn't lost to Michigan State by more than 20 points in any of the last 14 meetings.  That's a perfect 14-0 system working in the Boilermakers' favor dating back to 1997 pertaining to this three-touchdown spread.  With this being Darrell Hazell's best team yet, I look for this streak to continue in 2015.  Bet Purdue Saturday

20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn +17.5

The BYU Cougars are now overvalued after their impressive start that saw them upset Nebraska and Boise State and nearly beat UCLA on the road. They went 3-0 against the spread through those first four games and then were only catching a touchdown at Michigan last week. They would lose to the Wolverines 31-0 in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate.

Michigan outgained BYU by a whopping 343 total yards. The Wolverines managed 448 total yards including 254 rushing. They held the Cougars to just 105 yards of total offense as well. Now after playing the toughest schedule in the entire country through the first four weeks of the season, the Cougars are out of gas. They have to play on a short week here, which makes matters worse. I see no way they have enough left in the tank to put away UConn by more than 17.5 points.

Connecticut is a vastly improved team this season under second-year head coach Bob Diaco. It beat one of the best FCS teams in the country in Villanova 20-15 at home despite being 7-point underdogs, which just shows what the oddsmakers thought of the Wildcats. It then beat Army 22-17 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Huskies outgained the Black Knights by 150 total yards.

Perhaps the effort that shows UConn is improved the most is the 6-9 loss at Missouri as 21-point underdogs. The Huskies were only outgained by 37 yards by the Tigers in that game. They were also only outgained by 18 yards against Navy in an 18-28 home loss last week. That’s a Navy team that beat East Carolina 45-21. Well, ECU has beaten Virginia Tech and nearly beat Florida on the road. So clearly that loss to Navy isn’t too bad.

I think this is another week that will show the improvement that UConn has made this season. The Huskies were playing their first game under Diaco when they hosted BYU last season in the 2014 opener. They lost that game 35-10 and were outgained by 158 yards. So, they’re going to want revenge in this game, and now they have the type of team that can hang with BYU a year later.

The reason the Huskies have a chance to keep this game close is because of their defense. They are only giving up 17.2 points and 295.2 yards per game. Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game as it is with the total set at just 44 points. These low-scoring games almost always favor taking the underdog catching big points. BYU would have to win roughly a 31-13 game for the score to match the spread and total. I don’t see BYU scoring more than 31, and I foresee UConn getting past 13.

BYU is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The Cougars are 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a 2-game road trip.  Bet Connecticut Friday.

20* Miami/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6.5

It’s clear to me that there is value with the home underdog Bearcats in this one. That’s just based off of these team’s records thus far and how they have done against the spread. Miami is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS through its first three games, which has the betting public backing the Hurricanes here. Cincinnati is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS thus far, and the betting public certainly doesn’t want much to do with them right now.

But Cincinnati is better than its record would indicate and arguably should be 4-0. The Bearcats have put up tremendous statistical numbers to this point. They outgained Alabama A&M by 390 yards in a 52-10 win, they outgained Temple by 261 yards in a 26-34 loss, outgained Miami (Ohio) by 97 yards in a 37-33 win, and outgained Memphis by 182 yards in a 46-53 loss.

The Bearcats are averaging a ridiculous 622.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season on offense. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as advertised, allowing 390.0 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by an average of 232.5 yards per game this year. The problem for the Bearcats has been turnovers as they are -10 in turnover differential already. These poor turnovers teams are almost always undervalued.

Miami has played a pretty favorable schedule during its 3-0 start. It played Bethune-Cookman and Florida Atlantic in its first two games and actually struggled to put away FAU until late. Then it drew Nebraska at home, and with two losses already, the Huskers clearly aren’t as strong of a team as they normally are this year. Plus, Miami is +8 in turnover differential already, and these favorable turnover teams are almost always overvalued.

Cincinnati is going to want revenge from its 34-55 loss at Miami last year. It was -2 in turnovers in that game and let it get away from them. This is also a tough spot for Miami. It is coming off that huge win over Nebraska, and it has its biggest game of the season on deck against Florida State. This is a classing sandwich game for the Hurricanes as they may not bring their best focus given the situation.

Hayden Moore threw for a school-record 557 yards against Memphis last week while coming off the bench to replace an injured Gunner Kiel.  Moore will get the start this week.  "I don't think I've ever seen a performance like that. ... He broke our record here and we've had some quarterbacks that could really throw the football," Cincinnati coach Tommy Tuberville said. "And he did it in three quarters."

Nippert Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Bearcats one of the best home-field advantages in the land.  Cincinnati has won 27 consecutive non-conference games at Nippert Stadium.  The last time they lost one of these came all the way back in 2002.  And they're an underdog?  Give me a break.

Miami is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Cincinnati is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games vs. good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) – in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

15* USC/Arizona State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -5

I still believe the USC Trojans are one of the two best teams in the Pac-12 right alongside Stanford. They are certainly the best team in the loaded Pac-12 South, which says something considering they reside in that division with the likes of UCLA, ASU, Arizona and Utah. It was just a blip on the radar last week with their loss to Stanford, which wanted that game more after losing by a field goal each of the previous two seasons to the Trojans.  That loss will actually have the Trojans refocused and motivated this week.

The Trojans clearly won’t be lacking any motivation anyways, though that loss to Stanford does help. They have lost three of their last four meetings with Arizona State, including a 38-34 home loss last year. ASU scored three touchdowns in the final 3:23 to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.  It’s payback time Saturday night as this is the best team that USC has had since Pete Carroll left. All of the scholarship sanctions are gone, and the Trojans now have a very deep, talented roster.

I have not been impressed one bit with Arizona State this season. It was outgained by 134 yards in its 17-38 loss to Texas A&M in the opener and didn’t look like it even belonged on the same field as the Aggies. Then, the Sun Devils were flat against Cal Poly in a 35-21 home win as 34.5-point favorites, failing to cover by nearly 21 points. They also didn’t cover in a 34-10 home win over New Mexico as 25-point favorites. That was a 24-10 game in the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils scored the final 10 points.

USC features a high-octane offense that is putting up 48.3 points and 557.7 yards per game this season. Cody Kessler is still a Heisman Trophy candidate with the way he’s been playing. Kessler is completing 78.7 percent of his passes for 922 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions to this point. Tre Madden is averaging 7.4 yards per carry, Ronald Jones is averaging 9.4, and Justin Davis is averaging 9.2.

With Kessler's numbers and the jaw-dropping yards-per-carry average of their three top running backs, the Trojans should move the ball at will on this ASU defense.  The Sun Devils have given up at least 178 rushing yards in each of their first three games.  They are allowing 215 yards per game rushing this season.  This defense simply is not very good.

I have not been impressed with Arizona State’s offense one bit, either. It is only averaging 28.7 points and 423.7 yards per game despite playing both Cal Poly and New Mexico, which have horrible defenses. The Sun Devils only managed 291 total yards against Texas A&M in their opener. In what is expected to be a shootout, I simply do not believe the Sun Devils have the firepower to keep up with this high-powered USC attack.

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 20.6 points per game in this spot. This has been a resilient bunch to say the least, and that will be on display Saturday as all of the motivational factors are working in the Trojans’ favor in this one.  Take USC Saturday.

15* Mississippi State/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -3

You're not going to get a better price on Auburn the rest of the season.  Now is the time to buy low on the Tigers after their 21-45 loss at LSU last week, which followed an overtime win over Jacksonville State as 39-point favorites the previous week.  I was very down on Auburn coming into the season unlike most, but now I'm reversing roles here and backing them while everyone else is down on them.

Auburn is making a switch at quarterback this week, and I really believe it's the right move.  There was a lot of hype surrounding Jeremy Johnson coming into the season, but he just hasn't gotten it done with only 473 passing yards and six interceptions in three games.  It was absolutely the right call for head coach Gus Malzahn to bench him this week.

Malzahn is putting his trust in freshman Shaun White, who was the 14th-ranked QB prospect coming out of high school.  Everything I've read about this guy is that he is a winner.  After he has a big game against Mississippi State this week, you're not going to get to back him at this kind of a price again, so now is the time to do so while the price is right.

"I feel like that's best for our offense right now," Malzahn said. "Sean White is a guy that has got a lot of reps. He's responded very well in practice, very well in scrimmages, and I just feel like he needs a shot right now. We've got a lot of confidence in him right now.”

White has participated in two Elite 11 QB camps and also a Nike training camp.  He shined in a 7-on-7 circuit with South Florida Express, a team loaded with elite players.  At a 7-on-7 event in Oregon, he thrived against 160 four-and-five star recruits.

His team, the Field Generals, began the tournament by losing their first game by almost 40 points, but that was a game White didn't play in.  The Field Generals rallied to win the 7-on-7 title after White led them on a last-minute touchdown drive for a 21-14 comeback victory.  That championship carried White, who ended up committing to Auburn two weeks later, a school he didn't have an offer from before coming to Oregon.  He earned MVP honors in that tournament as well as the Elite 11.

What I'm saying is that this guy is good, and it will show right away against a Mississippi State team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Bulldogs are the least-experienced team in the SEC with just 7 returning starters.

They only outgained Southern Miss by 29 yards in a 34-16 win in their opener.  That's a Southern Miss team that was 4-32 over the previous three seasons.  I think that performance just shows that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as they were last season.

The reason they are getting so much respect is because they lost to LSU 21-19, while Auburn lost to LSU 21-45.  But you have to consider that LSU led Mississippi State 21-6 in the fourth quarter.  You also have to consider that Mississippi State played LSU at home, while Auburn played LSU on the road.

Auburn has won five of its last seven meetings with Mississippi State.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings.  Auburn is 6-1 in its last seven home meetings with Mississippi State.  The Tigers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference opponent.  I fully expect the Tigers to play inspired football this weekend after getting bashed all week.  White will be the biggest reason they come out on top.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +25

Ole Miss is coming off the biggest win in college football last week.  It stood toe-to-toe with Alabama and dominated the majority of the game, eventually coming away with a 43-37 victory.  ESPN College Gameday was in Tuscaloosa last week, so the stage couldn't have been bigger or brighter.  Ole Miss stood up to the test and is now the No. 3 ranked team in the country.

But off such an emotional win, it's only human nature for Ole Miss to suffer a letdown this week.  It won't be near as focuses to face Vanderbilt, thinking that it just has to show up to win.  That's the kind of mindset that makes it very difficult to cover massive spreads like this 24.5-point number the oddsmakers have set.  I look for the Commodores to give the Rebels a scare this week.

It's clear to me that Vanderbilt is already one of the most improved teams in the country.  That doesn't show up in the win/loss column because it is just 1-2 on the season.  However, a closer look at the two losses shows that the Commodores really played two fine games and could have won.  They also beat Austin Peay 47-7 last week to get their first win of the season.

In the opener, Vanderbilt lost at home 12-14 to Western Kentucky.  But there's no way the Commodores should have lost that game considering they outgained the Hilltoppers by 147 total yards.  That's the same Western Kentucky team that hung 41 points on Louisiana Tech and 35 points on Indiana this year.  The Commodores held the Hilltoppers to just 247 total yards.

Yes, Vanderbilt also lost at home to Georgia 14-31 as 18-point dogs, but that game was much closer than the final score showed.  The Commodores were only outgained 400-422, or by 22 total yards.  After seeing what Georgia did to South Carolina last week, it's safe to say the Commodores aren't to be taken lightly this year.

It's pretty easy to see why this team is so much better than last year.  They returned 18 starters after having just 10 back last season as they were very young.  Their defense is always good and is again this season, but the improvement on offense has been huge.  They had 400 total yards against Georgia and are averaging 444.7 yards per game.  Despite playing Western Kentucky and Georgia, their defense is only giving up 17.3 points and 271.0 yards per game.

The Commodores finally have a quarterback in Johnny McCray.  He is completing 59.8 percent of his passes for 880 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions this season.  He has also rushed for 124 yards and a score while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He is the type of quarterback that can make plays against this Ole Miss defense, just as he did against Georgia when he threw for 295 yards in that 17-point loss.

Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite.  Plays on road underdogs (VANDERBILT) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California -3

California is the biggest sleeper to win the Pac-12 this season.  The Golden Bears improved from 1-11 in Sonny Dykes' first season to 5-7 last year, and four of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less to Arizona (45-49), UCLA (34-36), USC (30-38) and BYU (35-42), which were all bowl teams last year.

Dykes returned 17 starters and a whopping 58 lettermen this season.  In fact, this is the most veteran team in the Pac-12 this year with all 22 of their starters either juniors or seniors.  I can't stress enough that it's time to back this team early in the season before all of the value is gone, including this week.

Cal was very impressive in its first two contests, which is no surprise.  Cal beat Grambling 73-14 in the opener and outgained them by 359 total yards.  Then it beat San Diego State 35-7 as 12.5-point home favorites and outgained the Aztecs by 160 total yards.

Cal has had an elite offense over the last two years and it's even better this season, but it's the defense that now makes this team a threat to win the Pac-12.  After being dreadful the past two seasons, the Golden Bears held their first two opponents to an average 10.5 points per game, 311 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  All the talk out of camp was how improved this D was going to be, and that certainly appears to be the case.

That defense did not hold up very well against Texas last week, but you have to consider that this was a 45-24 game before the Golden Bears took their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter.  Texas scored 20 unanswered points in the final period, but missed an extra point that would have forced OT.  But since California did cover the 5-point spread last week, I believe it is being undervalued here.  This team really should be 3-0 ATS if not for that blown lead.  I look for Dykes to use it as a teaching opportunity that you can never let up.

California's offense doesn't let up one bit.  This is probably the most underrated offense in the country led by a potential No. 1 NFL draft pick in Jared Goff.  They are averaging 51.0 points, 563.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  This was a good offense the last two years, too, but now in Goff's third season it's reaching new heights.  Goff is completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 898 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions this year.

Washington is a team in rebuilding mode.  It returned just 9 starters this season and lost four players to the NFL Draft in the first and second rounds.  Back-to-back home wins over Utah State (31-17) and Sacramento State (49-0) has Washington overvalued here, but the betting public sees its 13-16 road loss at Boise State in the opener and doesn't consider that a bad loss.

Well, a closer look at that Boise State game shows that it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Huskies were actually outgained by 158 total yards by the Broncos.  Their offense only mustered 179 total yards and remains a work in progress.  Now the Huskies will be playing their toughest opponent yet in Cal, which has a winning record.  That's significant because despite going 8-6 last season, the Huskies did not beat one team that had a winning record.

It's payback time for Cal this week, too.  The Golden Bears have lost six straight meetings in this series, including a 7-31 home loss last year.  That game was far from the blowout that that the score would indicate as Cal was only outgained 368-384, or by 16 total yards.  With 17 starters back for Cal and 9 back for Washington, it's clear to me that these are two teams heading in opposite directions this season.  That will show up in the final score Saturday.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with California Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Letdown Spot on UMass +28.5

This is the ideal letdown spot for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Not too many folks gave them a chance last week against Georgia Tech as they were home underdogs.  They were determined to prove their naysayers wrong and pulled off the 30-22 upset as they were a dog in most places all week.

Off such an emotional win, this is clearly a letdown spot.  But it's also a lookahead spot because the Fighting Irish travel to face No. 11 Clemson next week.  It's pretty clear to me that the Fighting Irish won't be focused for this game against UMass, and they aren't going to win by more than four touchdowns as a result.

I love fading Notre Dame as a big home favorite.  The Irish are 28-point favorites against the Minutemen, one of the largest point spreads during Brian Kelly's six seasons as Irish coach. No. 11 Notre Dame was 28-point favorites against Purdue last season and won 30-12. The 14th-ranked Irish were 29.5-point favorites against Temple to open the 2013 season and won 28-6. No. 11 Notre Dame also was 24.5-point favorite favorites against Boston College in 2011 and won only 16-14.  That's not a very good track record under Kelly.

UMass only went 3-9 last year and is undervalued in the early going as a result.  But five of its nine losses came by 7 points or less, and it only lost one game by more than 23 points last year.  The Minutemen now have 19 returning starters this year and are a sleeper in the MAC.

After opening with a 14-48 loss at Colorado in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated, the Minutemen showed what they were capable of last week by nearly upsetting Temple.  They lost 23-25 at home as 13.5-point underdogs.  But Temple is obviously a great team with two great wins already over both Penn State and Cincinnati.

No team in the country has been hit harder by injuries than Notre Dame up to this point.  "Certainly we can't afford to lose any more players at key positions: Quarterback, running back, you start to get into true freshmen, and that will be obviously a significant change in what we look like," Kelly said Sunday.

Sophomore safety Drue Tranquill became the sixth player for the Fighting Irish to sustain a season-ending injury when he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee Saturday while celebrating a pass breakup in the end zone against Georgia Tech.

Defensive lineman Jarron Jones was the first to go down in mid-August with a torn medial collateral ligament in his right knee when at the end of a play Notre Dame tackle Mike McGlinchey pushed linebacker Joe Schmidt, who fell in to Jones. Freshman nickel back Shaun Crawford , who had been practicing with the starters, during a one-on-one drill when he was backpedaling, turned and planted and tore his ACL.

Running back Tarean Folston, who led the Irish in rushing last season, tore the ACL in his right knee on his third carry of the season against Texas. Quarterback Malik Zaire fractured his ankle when his leg got trapped under a Virginia player on a run. Tight end Durham Smythe tore the MCL in his right knee in the final minute when a teammate fell into his leg.

One important thing to have when backing big underdogs like this is a good quarterback who can lead the offense to points.  UMass certainly has that in Blake Frohnapfel.  Last year, he threw for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  He has thrown for 618 and four touchdowns with two picks in two games thus far, which is pretty good against defenses the caliber of Temple and Colorado.

Notre Dame is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points.  The Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +25

This is an awful spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They are coming off two huge wins with their 31-17 win at in-state rival Iowa State and their 27-24 home win over Pittsburgh.  They kicked a 57-yard game-winning field goal as time expired to beat the Panthers last week.

Now, the Hawkeyes will be coming down for their emotional high, especially with the Big Ten opener at Wisconsin next week.  They know that the Big Ten West runs through Wisconsin, so they will clearly be looking ahead to that game.  They won't give North Texas the focus it deserves to cover this massive 25-point spread.

Iowa is not good at covering these huge spread.  The Hawkeyes play a very conservative style and have for years under Kirk Ferentz.  They never seem concerned with running up the score.  They seem to have a way of playing up or down to their competition every week, too.

Yes, they led Illinois State big most of the way in the opener, but they only ended up winning that game 31-14, or by 17 points.  I could see a similar score here.  Last year, all of Iowa's non-conference games were close, too.  They only beat Northern Iowa by 8 at home, Ball State by 4 at home, lost to Iowa State by 3 at home, and beat Pitt by 4 on the road.

You can count on two fingers how many wins Iowa has by more than 24 points over the past four seasons.  They only had one last year and that was a 48-7 win over Northwestern.  They only had one in 2013 and that was a 59-3 win over Western Michigan.  They didn't have one in 2012.  In fact, Iowa has only beaten 2 of its last 49 opponents by more than 24 points.  That's a 47-2 system working in North Texas' favor.

The betting public wants nothing to do with North Texas after an 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS start.  The Mean Green lost to SMU 13-31 on the road in the opener, but SMU had TCU on the ropes in the 4th quarter last week.  They lost to Rice 24-38 at home last week, but that game was closer than the score showed.  They were only outgained by 84 yards.  The Mean Green have committed 7 turnovers in two games and must improve in that department.

North Texas coach Dan McCarney was a former assistant at Iowa.  He was also the head coach at Iowa State for a number of years and faced Kirk Ferentz numerous times.  His familiarity with Ferentz and the Hawks will come in handy here.  It will also serve as extra motivation for McCarney as this game means a little more to him.

Plays against a home team (IOWA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Iowa is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Mean Green are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take North Texas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -1

The Tennessee Vols are the real deal this season and my pick to win the SEC East.  They returned 18 starters this year and Butch Jones had put together back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes.  It has all come to fruition thus far as the Volunteers should be 3-0 had they not blown a 14-point 4th quarter lead to a very good Oklahoma team.

The proof that the Vols have turned the corner will come against Florida this weekend.  They have lost 10 straight meetings with the Gators, so they're obviously going to be about as motivated as a team could ever be.  They came close last year in a 10-9 home loss, which is only going to add fuel to the fire.

Florida is not a good team this year.  Yes, it is 3-0, but it could easily be 1-2 right now.  Florida beat East Carolina 31-24 at home in Week 2 and only outgained the Pirates by 40 yards.  That win really looks bad now when ECU lost to Navy 45-21 last week.  The Gators only outgained Kentucky by 4 total yards in their 14-9 road win last week as well.

Jim McElwain clearly isn't the offensive savior that everyone thought he'd be right away.  The Gators only put up 245 total yards on Kentucky last week.  They aren't going to be able to keep up with this high-powered Tennessee attack that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Since Josh Dobbs took over as the starting quarterback, this Tennessee offense has been rolling.  They have scored 45 or more points in five of his last eight starts, which is a huge number.  They have already hung 55-plus points twice this season.  Their defense is improved this year as well and limited a strong Oklahoma attack to just 348 total yards, in double-overtime no less.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - in conference games, after playing 2 straight non-conference games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Vols are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Gators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored.  Florida is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home games after scoring 14 points or less last game.  The Gators are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Central Michigan +27

Michigan State is clearly overvalued this season.  It has opened up 3-0 but 0-3 against the spread.  That hasn't stopped the betting public from backing them, or the oddsmakers from jacking up their lines.  That's especially the case now that they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  These highly-ranked teams are overvalued week in and week out.

Obviously the 3-point win over Oregon was huge, but the other two wins have been far from impressive.  They only beat Western Michigan by 13 as 16.5-point favorites.  They also only beat Air Force by 14 as 24.5-point favorites.  They were actually outgained by 104 yards by Air Force last week, but the Falcons committed 6 personal foul penalties and 3 turnovers, or they actually could have pulled off the upset.  Despite being 3-0, the Spartans are actually getting outgained by 26 yards per game on the season.  That's not the sign of a very good team.

I love fading Big Ten favorites of 20 points or more.  Sure, I'm not going to do this blindly, but I have learned how to pick my spots over time.  Big Ten favorites of 20-plus points went 0-5 against the spread last week.  The Big Ten in general plays a slow, methodical game that tends to lead to defensive battles, which makes it hard for them to cover these big spreads.  Michigan State is no exception.

Central Michigan is flying under the radar this season due to its 1-2 start.  But the Chippewas played an improved Oklahoma State team very tough in the opener, only losing 13-24 as 21-point underdogs.  They were only outgained by 77 yards in that game.  They beat Monmouth by 21 before losing to Syracuse 27-30 (OT) on the road last week.  The Chippewas outplayed the Orange and should have won as they outgained them 520-326 for the game, or by 194 total yards.

I love backing big underdogs with good quarterbacks who can put up points on offense because you're never out of it when this is the case.  Well, Cooper Rush is the real deal this season.  He is completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 983 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions through three games.  Plus, the Chippewas have been better defensively than they are getting credit for here.  They are only giving up 309 yards per game this season, and holding Oklahoma State to 24 points is no small feat.

Just like Air Force and Western Michigan, which are two comparable teams to Central Michigan, the Chippewas will hang with the Spartans this week.  The Chippewas are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 games following a ATS win.  Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games, 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss, 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Chippewas.  Take Central Michigan Saturday.

25* CFB UPSET GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +7

I backed Connecticut last week and will ride this gravy train again Saturday as it continues to be undervalued.  The Huskies led most of the way against Missouri last week as 21.5-point road underdogs and only lost 9-6 when they went for a fake field goal and the win at the end of the game.

UConn really should be 3-0 against the spread right now, too.  After upsetting one of the best FCS teams in the country in Villanova 20-15 as 6.5-point home dogs, UConn only beat Army 22-17 as 6.5-point home favorites.  But the Huskies outgained Army by 150 total yards and should have won by more.

That game against Missouri was every bit as close as the final score indicated.  The Huskies were only outgained by 37 yards in their 9-6 loss.  Their defense held the Tigers to just 270 yards of offense and is one of the more underrated stop units in the country.  UConn is giving up just 13.7 points, 279.3 yards per game and 4.8 per play.

UConn has been sound against the run, giving up 126 yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  It held Missouri to just 85 yards on 34 carries last week.  Even Army, which usually produces huge rushing totals, could only muster up 180 yards.  That's big because UConn has already faced a triple-option team, so it will know exactly how to stop Navy this week.  That extra preparation the Huskies got for the triple-option cannot be overstated.

Navy is way overvalued here due to blowing out two lesser opponents at home in Colgate and East Carolina.  The Midshipmen are a quality team year in and year out, but they should not be favored by a touchdown on the road against the Huskies.  Their defense gave up 405 total yards to ECU last week, including 325 passing, and that game was much closer than the 45-21 score would indicate.

Connecticut is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 9 or fewer points in its last game.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 50-15 (76.9%) ATS since 1992.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - off a road loss, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS since 1992.  While I'm calling for the upset, I'm taking the +7 here and this play will be graded on the +7.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

20* Boise State/Virginia ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 49

I don’t have a real good feel for the side in this game. I believe Boise State being a small favorite is about right. I just don’t really trust either of these teams to win this game in what is essentially a pick ’em. But I do see some value in the total as I believe this is going to be a low-scoring affair.

Virginia has been a pretty good defensive team through the years with little offense. That’s the case in 2015 as its offense is sub-par once again, while its defense is better than the numbers show up to this point. The Cavaliers have played two high-powered offenses in Notre Dame and UCLA, so thus it is giving up 445 yards per game through three games.

The Cavaliers have not fared very well offensively in the early going. They are only putting up 375 total yards per game and only managed 373 against William & Mary last week. This is an offense that put up 374 yards per game last season and doesn’t look to be any better, especially with so many losses and only five starters back.

Boise State is no longer an elite offensive team. It lost its two best players on offense from last year in RB Jay Ajayi and QB Grand Hedrick. Now, starting QB Ryan Finley is out with an ankle injury, and this offense is really in trouble. The Broncos only managed 16 points against Washington in their opener and 24 against a suspect BYU defense. Sure, they racked up 52 points on Idaho State last week, but that’s far from impressive.

The Broncos are much more reliant on their defense this season than they have been in year’s past. That’s a pretty good unit to rely on when you consider the Broncos returned eight starters on that side of the ball. They held Washington to just 179 total yards, BYU to a respectable 381 total yards, and Idaho State to 298 yards. They are only giving up 16.0 points, 286 yards per game and 4.2 per play this season.

Virginia is 40-14 UNDER versus good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry since 1992.  Virginia is 41-16 UNDER versus good defensive teams that give up 310 or fewer yards per game since 1992.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 10 home games off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (BOISE ST) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 50-19 (72.5%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati +10

This line is clearly inflated whether or not Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel plays tonight.  If he plays it would just be an added bonus, and head coach Tommy Tuberville believes that there's a good chance he will take the field Thursday.

“He’ll have a good chance to play,” Bearcats coach Tommy Tuberville told reporters Tuesday of Kiel, who has thrown for 805 yards and five touchdowns in three games.  Backup Hayden Moore came in when Kiel exited against Miami Ohio when the score was 24-23 and eventually led the game-winning drive, so he at least got his feet wet if he needs to play.

The key here is that Cincinnati is better than the final scores would indicate to this point.  Cincinnati outgained Alabama by 390 yards in a 52-10 home win, outgained Temple by 261 yards in a 24-34 home loss, and outgained Miami Ohio by 97 yards in a 37-33 road win.

When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that the Bearcats are a very good team.  They rank 7th in the country in total offense at 579.3 yards per game, and their defense is only giving up 330.0 yards per game, so they are outgaining teams by an average of 249.3 yards per game.  The problem has been turnovers as the Bearcats have already committed 11 of them, which is correctable.

The Memphis Tigers are a good team again this season and I don't want to take too much away from them.  But they have faced three awful defenses in opening 3-0 in Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green.  They now will be facing the toughest team they have played yet, and it's not really even close.  Asking them to win by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

This is a Tigers defense that returned just three starters from last year and won't be very good as the season goes on. They gave up 41 points and 579 total yards to Bowling Green last time out, but escaped with a 44-41 victory thanks to facing one of the worse defenses in the country in the Falcons.

Memphis is going to have to deal with a ton of playmakers on Cincinnati's side.  The Bearcats have three players who have rushed for at least 220 yards already this season.  Mike Boone (220 yards, 9.6/carry) is an absolute stud, and he is probable to play tonight after his status was in doubt.  Their two best receivers in Shaq Washington and Mekale McKay were also in doubt earlier this week, but both are expected to play, which will give the offense a huge boost.

Finally, Cincinnati is going to be highly motivated following an embarrassing 41-14 home loss to Memphis last year.  The Tigers caught them completely off guard early in the season.  It's payback time now as the road team has won each of the last two meetings in this series.  Look for the Bearcats to play with a serious chip on their shoulder in this one.

The Bearcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight conference games.  The Tigers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring 42 or more points in their previous game.  Memphis is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games following two more more consecutive wins.  Tommy Tuberville is 12-3 ATS off two straight games where his team has committed 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

15* BYU/UCLA Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +16.5

BYU continues to be underrated year in and year out.  That has been the case to open the 2015 season again.  BYU has pulled off back-to-back upsets over Nebraska (33-28) on the road and Boise State (35-24) at home.  Yet, it is now a 16.5-point underdog to UCLA this week and still lacking the respect it deserves.

The Cougars have put up great offensive numbers against two solid defenses.  They have scored 34.0 points per game and averaged 446.0 yards per game in their two wins.  The defense has held its own in allowing 26.0 points per game and 403.0 yards per game against two elite offenses as well.

BYU may be a better offense with Tanner Mangum under center.  He was one of the top QB recruits in the country coming out of high school, and even tied Jameis Winston for MVP honors in the Elite 11 camp.  He is a better passer than Taisom Hill.  Mangum has completed 61.5 percent of his passes for 420 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in just over one game of action.

UCLA is overvalued here.  It is expected to compete for a Pac-12 title this season with all of the returning starters it brought back.  While I believe this is a good team, I do not feel like the Bruins deserve to be 16.5-point favorites.  They were 18-point favorites over Virginia in a 34-16 home win in their opener.  BYU is clearly a better team than Virginia, and it's not really even close.

While the Bruins have a very good offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired.  They gave up 28.1 points and 399 yards per game last season.  They returned eight starters on D, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be much better.  They have faced two awful offenses in Virginia and UNLV in their first two games, and now I look for their weaknesses to be exploited against this underrated BYU offensive attack.

I also think this is a tough spot for UCLA.  It will be looking ahead to its Pac-12 opener next week at Arizona, which won the Pac-12 South last season.  UCLA clearly wants revenge on the Wildcats and wants to win the Pac-12 South this year, and it starts with beating Arizona next week.  The Bruins won't give the Cougars the full attention they deserve this week.

The Cougars are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  BYU is 7-1 ATS after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Bet BYU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SMU +37

The SMU Mustangs are clearly not the same joke of a team that they were last year when they went 1-11 after winning their final game of the season.  It's time to back them now while the perception is still out that SMU is still one of the worst teams in college football.

At the same time, the perception is that TCU is a national title contender.  While I believe that to be true, the fact of the matter is that oddsmakers are forced to set huge spread for TCU to have to cover due to what they did last year. It's going to be very hard for the Horned Frogs to live up to these lofty expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers in the early going.

That was clearly the case in a season-opening 23-17 win at Minnesota.  TCU was a 16-point favorite in that game and had to hold on for dear life in the end just to get the victory.  Sure, it came back and beat Stephen F. Austin 70-7 as a 45-point favorite last week, but that's an FCS team and one that is not nearly as good as this SMU squad.

Chad Morris, who was previously the offensive coordinator at Clemson and led the Tigers to numerous great seasons on that side of the ball, accepted the challenge of turning SMU around.  He actually inherited 16 returning starters this year, so he had some pieces to work with.  So far, he's done a tremendous job.

SMU opened the season with a 21-56 home loss to Baylor and covered the 37-point spread.  That was actually a 28-21 game at halftime before the Bears pulled away in the second half.  The Mustangs put up a respectable 369 total yards on a Baylor defense that was expected to be one of the best in the Big 12 with so much returning talent from last year.

Last week, SMU rolled North Texas 31-13 as a 6-point home favorite.  I'm not saying North Texas is a great team, but keep in mind that SMU had lost to North Texas 6-43 last year.  That just shows the kind of improvement this team has made.  That win over the Mean Green was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate.  The Mustangs outgained them 444-240, or by 204 total yards.

SMU is capable of putting up big points under the guidance of Chad Morris and behind former Texas A&M transfer Matt Davis, who was the 6th-rated QB recruit in the country coming out of high school.  Davis has been brilliant through two games, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 337 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for a team-high 240 yards and two scores.  With a QB of his caliber, SMU is more than capable of staying within five touchdowns of TCU.

Yes, TCU does have one of the best offenses in the country again this year, but it's defense is sure to take a big step back as the season goes on.  The Horned Frogs only returned five starters on defense and lost six of their top seven tacklers from last year.  Making matters worse is that they have been hit by injuries on this side of the ball already.

Two of those five returning starters were DE James McFarland and DT Davion Pierson, and both are out for this game due to injury.  Plus, three more of their projected starters on defense are hurt and will miss this game in FS Kenny Iloka, LB Mike Freeze and LB Sammy Douglas.  Their defense has held up against two poor offenses through the first two games, but I have no doubt Davis and this SMU offense will find plenty of success in this one.  Roll with SMU Saturday.

15* Stanford/USC ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Stanford +9.5

I believe the value is with the road underdog Cardinal in this one. That is evident to me when you consider that this was only a 5-point spread before the season started, and now it has moved 5.5 points in USC’s favor with a line of 10.5 now. I don’t believe that is warranted even though the Cardinal already have a loss. If anything, that has them extra motivated coming in knowing their margin for error now is very slim.

I like the way that Stanford responded from its loss at Northwestern last week. It beat a quality Central Florida team 31-7 at 20-point home favorites. This game was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Cardinal outgained the Knights by 310 total yards for the game. The offense racked up 491 yards behind 341 passing and three touchdowns from Kevin Hogan, while the defense limited the Knights to just 181 total yards.

USC has won and covered each of its first two games of the season, which has it overvalued here. The Trojans have played a very soft schedule, beating Arkansas State by 49 and Idaho by 50. They were 27-point favorites over Arkansas State and 44-point favorites over Idaho, so they were supposed to roll. I believe that easy early schedule will work against them here as the Cardinal are the more battle-tested team with a much tougher schedule thus far.

Plus, Stanford is going to be motivated after getting upset by USC each of the last two seasons by a field goal. The Cardinal outgained the Trojans by 26 yards in a 17-20 road loss in 2013. They then outgained the Trojans by a whopping 138 yards last year despite losing 10-13 at home. They limited the high-powered USC offensive attack to just 291 total yards last season, and their offense racked up 429 yards, but shot themselves in the foot by not capitalizing in USC territory time after time.

One thing that really stands out to me is how close of a series this has been in recent years. In fact, each of the last five meetings between USC and Stanford have been decided by 8 points or less, including three by a field goal or fewer. I expect USC to be slightly better than last year, but not enough to warrant this 9.5-point spread. I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire as well.

Plays on road underdogs (STANFORD) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Stanford Saturday.

20* CFB Letdown GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +8

The Toledo Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off the biggest win in all of college football last week, beating Arkansas 16-12 on the road despite being 23-point underdogs in that game.  After such a huge win over an elite SEC opponent, the Rockets won't even show up today against Iowa State.

The Cyclones are a much-improved team this season that will likely pull off the upset here, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.  They returned 13 starters this season, but after going 2-10 last year, the betting public wants nothing to do with this team in the early going.  The offense and defense are both vastly improved, and that has shown the first two weeks.

Iowa State's offense has a senior QB in Sam Richardson and one of the most underrated receiving corps in the Big 12.  They have a very good passing game that will pick apart this Toledo defense.  They also have their best defensive line since Paul Rhoads came to Iowa State seven years ago.  That D-line will be key in shutting down Toledo.

Iowa State opened the season with a 31-7 win over a ranked FCS opponent in Northern Iowa as a 13-point favorite.  Then, it held a 17-10 lead at home over Iowa last week, but gave up 21 unanswered points down the stretch to lose 31-17.  Iowa tacked on a garbage TD late that made this final score appear to be a blowout when it really wasn't.  But the perception that it was a blowout works in our favor here because we're now Iowa State is catching too many points.

Toledo never should have beaten Arkansas in the first place.  Toledo was actually outgained 318-515 for the game, or by nearly 200 total yards.  So, Toledo's win looks impressive, when in reality if Arkansas outgains Toledo by 200 yards it should win by 14-plus points every time.  This game was really a blowout in Arkansas' favor, but it did not show up in the final score.  The Razorbacks continually shot themselves in the foot.  But because it was an upset win for Toledo, that works out in our favor here, too.

These teams played last year with Iowa State winning 37-30 at home as 3.5-point favorites.  Remember, this was a 2-10 Iowa State team last year, too.  The Cyclones outgained the Rockets 454-325 for the game.  Sam Richardson had one of his best games of the season with 37 completions, 351 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.  He is primed for another big game against this Toledo defense, which gave up 30.8 points per game last year and 412 passing yards to Arkansas last week.  It's also worth noting that the three meetings between Toledo and ISU since 2006 have all been decided by 7 points or less and by a combined 10 points.

Toledo is 0-6 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. MAC opponents.  Take this combined 10-0 system backing the Cyclones straight to the bank.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on California -6.5

California is the biggest sleeper to win the Pac-12 this season.  The Golden Bears improved from 1-11 in Sonny Dykes' first season to 5-7 last year, and four of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less to Arizona (45-49), UCLA (34-36), USC (30-38) and BYU (35-42), which were all bowl teams last year.

Dykes returned 17 starters and a whopping 58 lettermen this season.  In fact, this is the most veteran team in the Pac-12 this year with all 22 of their starters either juniors or seniors.  I can't stress enough that it's time to back this team early in the season before all of the value is gone, including this week.

Cal has been very impressive in its first two contests, which is no surprise.  Cal beat Grambling 73-14 in the opener and outgained them by 359 total yards.  Then it beat San Diego State 35-7 as 12.5-point home favorites and outgained the Aztecs by 160 total yards.

Cal has had an elite offense over the last two years and it's even better this season, but it's the defense that now makes this team a threat to win the Pac-12.  After being dreadful the past two seasons, the Golden Bears have held their first two opponents to an average 10.5 points per game, 311 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  All the talk out of camp was how improved this D was going to be, and that certainly appears to be the case.

Speaking of dreadful, that's a great word to describe the state of Texas' football program.  After going 6-7 last year that ended in a 31-7 loss to Arkansas where the Longhorns were held to just 59 yards of total offense, many expected this team to be improved.  But they only had 12 returning starters and were projected to start a bunch of freshmen.

The start the Longhorns are off to clearly shows that they are in trouble.  They lost 38-3 to Notre Dame in the opener and were outgained by a ridiculous 364 total yards as their offense managed just 163 and their defense gave up 527.  Yes, they did beat Rice 42-28 last week at home, but a quick look at the box score shows that the Longhorns were actually outplayed in that game.

Indeed, Texas was outgained by 185 total yards by Rice.  They managed to score 42 points despite just 277 yards of total offense, which is nearly impossible.  That's because they benefited from an 85-yard punt return TD and a 26-yard fumble recovery for a TD.  Their defense gave up 462 total yards to the Owls.

So, this young defense is giving up an average of 33.0 points and 494 yards per game through two games.  It's safe to say that Cal is going to do whatever it wants to offensively as this will be the best offense that Texas has faced yet.  Plus, Texas is only averaging 220.0 yards per game offensively.  It's offense is still in shambles and will be able to do nothing against this improved Cal defense.

Texas is 0-8 ATS after a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the past three seasons.  It is losing in this spot by an average of 14.9 points per game.  The Golden Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.  The Longhorns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Golden Bears.  Bet California Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +16.5

I believe this line is an overreaction from South Carolina’s 22-26 upset home loss to Kentucky last week. That’s a better Kentucky team than it gets credit for, and the Gamecocks still should have won the game. They outgained the Wildcats by 18 yards and racked up 417 total yards in the loss. They rushed for 195 yards as a team and 5.7 per carry.

Now that loss to Kentucky has created some serious line value to come back and support the Gamecocks this week. South Carolina clearly has Georgia’s number, going 4-1 straight up in the last five meetings, and 5-1 against the spread in the last six.   In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find the last time Georgia beat South Carolina by more than this 16.5-point margin, and even that was only an 18-point win.

Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 11 points once in the last 11 meetings.  Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 16 points twice in the last 19 meetings.  This series history alone shows that there's value with the Gamecocks.

South Carolina only went 7-6 last season, but four of those losses came by 7 points or less, and it beat Georgia 38-35. The Gamecocks outgained the Bulldogs 447-408 for the game. They have actually outgained the Bulldogs in five of the last seven meetings. Steve Spurrier simply owns Mark Richt in this series. Georgia may have its revenge this year, but asking it to win by 17-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

Georgia did take care of Louisiana-Monroe 51-14 in the opener, but that game was probably closer than the final score as the Bulldogs outgained the Warhawks by 184 total yards. I’m certain that Georgia’s 31-14 win at Vanderbilt was closer than the final score because the Bulldogs only outgained the Commodores by 23 total yards.

Vanderbilt had plenty of success against this overrated Georgia defense with 400 yards of total offense. Johnny McCray threw for 295 yards and a touchdown in the game, but his three interceptions cost the Commodores a chance to win. I believe Georgia has one of the worst QB situations in the SEC. Greyson Lambert only went 11 of 21 for 116 yards against the Commodores. They are a one-dimensional running team, making them easier to stop.

South Carolina also had starting QB Connor Mitch knocked out early against Kentucky, which threw the Gamecocks off.  Backup Perry Orth came in and played well, though, completing 13 of 20 passes for 179 yards with one touchdown and one interception.  Orth is a junior who has been with the program for three years.  Having an entire week to prepare to be a starting QB will benefit Orth, and I expect him to surprise some folks this week.  But because they have a backup QB starting, this line is higher than it should be.

Georgia is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 home games off a road win. The Bulldogs are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 home games off a win over a conference rival. The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Gamecocks are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +30.5

This is another situation where I'm fading a team off a huge win and expect a letdown.  Oklahoma erased a 17-3 deficit in the 4th quarter at Tennessee last week and won in double-overtime, 31-24.  The Sooners celebrated afterwards like they won the National Championship.  They will not be focused on beating Tulsa this week, and they'll come in overconfident and struggle to put the Golden Hurricane away.

Tulsa clearly isn't a team to be taken lightly, either.  It managed to nab former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who has led the record-setting offenses at Baylor over the past seven years.  He was tasked with turning around a Tulsa program that had gone 5-19 over the past two seasons after going 11-3 in 2012.  Montgomery stepped into a good situation with 16 starters and 57 lettermen back this season.

Montgomery and company are off to a tremendous start to a turnaround.  The Golden Hurricane have opened 2-0 with a 47-44 overtime win against Florida Atlantic and a 40-21 road win over New Mexico.  That was the same FAU team that gave the Miami Hurricanes a scare last week before eventually giving way in the second half, so that win looks more impressive today than it did in Week 1.

The win over New Mexico was even more impressive because it was on the road, and the Lobos are a team on the rise with 14 starters back.  The Golden Hurricane absolutely dominated in all areas of that 40-21 win.  They racked up 600 yards of total offense for a second straight week.  Their defense made big improvements in limiting the Lobos to 390 total yards, so they outgained them by 210 yards for the game.

It's really amazing what Mongtomery is doing here with this offense in his first season.  He did have 10 starters back on offense, but he has implemented his Baylor principles and has turned this unit into a juggernaut.  The Golden Hurricane are averaging 43.5 points, 609.0 yards per game and 7.0 per play.  It's a balanced attack that is averaging 236 yards per game on the ground and 372 through the air.

Senior QB Dane Evans is completing 58.7 percent of his passes for 745 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions.  He has two stud receivers in Keyarris Garrett (12 receptions, 265 yards) and Keevan Lucas (14, 258, 3 TD) back from last year.  The running game is vastly improved, too, behind Zack Langer (228 yards, 4 TD) and D'Angelo Brewer (225 yards, 1 TD).

Again, this is a tough spot for Oklahoma.  It is coming off that huge road win over Tennessee, and now it has its Big 12 opener on deck against West Virginia.  I have been impressed with the Sooners thus far, but after going 2-0 ATS through their first two games, they are clearly overvalued here.  Tulsa will be able to score enough points to keep this one interesting for four quarters and it will never get to a 31-point game or more in Oklahoma's favor.  The Golden Hurricane are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Tulsa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Air Force +25.5

The Michigan State Spartans are in a massive letdown spot this week.  They just beat Oregon 31-28 at home last week to avenge their loss to the Ducks last season.  I expect them to lack the kind of focus it will take to put away a pesky Air Force team by more than this 25.5-point spread.  There is a lot of value here with the Falcons because of it.

This is an Air Force team that went 10-3 last season with wins over the likes of Boise State, Colorado State and Western Michigan.  That's the same Western Michigan team that gave the Spartans all they wanted in the 2015 opener, only losing 24-37 as 16.5-point home underdogs.

Air Force appears to be strong again in 2015 as its off to a 2-0 start with blowout victories over Morgan State (63-7) and San Jose State (37-16).  That win over SJSU was extremely impressive because they were just 4-point favorites, and SJSU returned 16 starters this season and is going to prove to be one of the most improved teams in the country.

Air Force outgained SJSU by 162 total yards in the win.  This rushing attack by the Falcons is strong again after averaging 273 yards per game on the ground last season.  They have averaged 411 rushing yards per game and 6.2 per carry through their first two contests, and this is an offense that returned seven starters from last year so it was going to be strong again anyway.

Michigan State isn't used to facing the triple-option, and head coach Mark Dantonio is worried about it.  "They present a lot of problems in terms of discipline, who has who on the option, things of that nature," Dantonio said. "I think it's a tough draw because it's something we've not experienced. We've played option football before but not to this level."

Again, Michigan State is not going to be focuses this week after beating Oregon.  These players will just think they can show up to win this game.  And you have to be disciplined defensively to face the triple-option because there are so many responsibilities that each defender must focus on.  The Spartans gave up 24 points and 383 yards to WMU and 28 points and 432 yards to Oregon, so they aren't exactly off to the greatest start defensively.

Plays on road underdogs (AIR FORCE) - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in non-conference games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Falcons are once again undervalued in 2015, and that will be evident as they give the Spartans more of a test than they were expecting coming in.  Take Air Force Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +21.5

The Connecticut Huskies came into the 2015 season way undervalued due to having gone 2-10 in Bob Diaco's first season last year.  Diaco stepped into a tough situation, but it's not taking him long to turn things around in Storrs.  He has already matched his win total from last year with a 2-0 start.  He had 14 starters and 52 lettermen back this year.

The Huskies beat a highly-ranked FCS team in Villanova 20-15 in their opener and were 6.5-point underdogs in that game, which just shows you the respect the oddsmakers have for Villanova, and the lack of respect for UConn.  Last week, UConn beat Army 22-17 as 6.5-point favorites in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

UConn actually outgained Army 415-265 for the game and should have won by more.  But since they didn't, but believe this spread against Missouri is way bigger than it otherwise would have been.  The value is clearly with the Huskies as over 3-touchdown underdogs in this one in a game I believe they could actually pull the upset.

Missouri is one of the most overrated teams in the country coming into the 2015 season due to winning back-to-back SEC East titles.  It's an absolute miracle that the Tigers have accomplished that feat, because they really haven't been that good.  That was especially the case last year as they only outgained all opponents on the season by an average of 21 yards per game despite going 11-3.

The Tigers returned just 12 starters this season and won't be nearly as fortunate as they were last year.  They were already fortunate last week to escape with a 27-20 win at Arkansas State.  The Tigers only managed 288 total yards against Arkansas State, which was the same team that gave up 55 points and 509 total yards to USC the previous week.

To cover a big spread like this one, you need to have a high-powered offense.  Missouri does not have that.  It only averaged 367 yards per game last year, and it has an awful QB in Maty Mauk, who completed just 53.4 percent of his passes last season.  Mauk was awful against Arkansas State, completing just 16 of 36 passes for 148 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  Again, this was an Arkansas State defense that was one of the worst in the country.

Now Mauk will be up against a UConn defense that is clearly underrated.  The Huskies gave up a respectable 379 yards per game last season and were solid on that side of the ball.  They returned eight starters on defense this season and are a lot better.  The Huskies have only given up 16.0 points and 284 yards per game against their first two opponents.

NC State transfer Bryant Shirreffs has made what was a weak offense for UConn last year a respectable one in 2015.  He is completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 472 yards with two touchdowns against one interception through two starts.  I look for the Huskies to put up enough points to cover this massive spread, but to also hold Missouri to less than 30 points, which will make it an easy cover.  Bet UConn Saturday.

20* FSU/Boston College ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State -7.5

I believe Florida State is better than it gets credit for this season. The Seminoles are now 31-1 in their last 32 games overall, yet they're only the No. 9 ranked team in the country. They have been one of the best four teams in the country each of the past two seasons as well, and I’m not so sure they aren’t one of the four best in 2015. This is a very generous price to get the Seminoles at.

Florida State lost Jameis Winston, which is a big reason why it isn’t getting much respect in the early going. But Winston had an awful season last year to follow up his Heisman Trophy in 2013, throwing 25 touchdowns passes and 18 interceptions. It’s already apparent to me that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted the wrong guy with the No. 1 overall pick after watching Marcus Mariota outplay Winston in Week 1 NFL, and it wasn’t even close.

A 49-point win over Texas State and a 20-point win over South Florida aren’t hugely impressive, but it’s certainly worth noting that the Seminoles have played the tougher schedule than the Boston College Eagles have thus far, and that USF is a better team than it gets credit for.

Everett Golson is already playing better than Winston did last year, completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 465 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was also huge for the Seminoles to get Dalvin Cook back from suspension to start the year. All Cook has done is rush for 422 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry.

Boston College’s blowout wins over Maine (24-3) and Howard (76-0) are being overblown here.  It was a 26-point favorite over Maine and a 44-point favorite over Howard, which are two I-AA teams. This is an Eagles team that is in rebuilding mode in 2015 and one that will be outclassed. The Eagles only returned 10 starters this season and lost their best player in QB Tyler Murphy from last year. I do think they have a good defense, but only putting up 24 points against Maine shows that their offense has a lot of work to do.

I also believe this line is smaller than it should be due to Boston College playing Florida State tough the past two years. FSU won 48-34 as 23.5-point road favorites in 2013 when it went on to win the national championship. FSU was a 17-point home favorite against Boston College last year, but needed a field goal in the closing seconds to win 20-17. So essentially FSU is going from being an average favorite of 20 points per game the last two years against BC down to a 7.5-point favorite this year. That alone shows that there is value in the Seminoles.

The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Seminoles are 5-0 straight up in their last five meetings with Boston College with three of the last four wins coming by 14 points or more.  Bet Florida State Friday.

15* Clemson/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +6

The Louisville Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for their first victory of the season Thursday night. They still have their entire ACC schedule ahead of them, so it shouldn’t be hard to shake off a couple losses to Auburn and Houston that have come by a combined 10 points. I still believe this is one of the best teams in the ACC.

Louisville actually outgained Auburn by 78 total yards in its 24-31 loss in the opener. Houston is obviously a better team than it gets credit for, though that 31-34 loss by the Cardinals as 13.5-point home favorites is concerning. That’s a Houston team that returned all of its key weapons on offense for first-year head coach Tom Herman, who was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State last year during the championship run.

Clemson is getting too much love from oddsmakers in this one due to back-to-back blowout victories. Well, it was favored by 34 over Wofford and by 18.5 over Appalachian State, so it was supposed to roll in both those games. I believe a lack of competition for the Tigers will really come back to hurt them here, while the tough slate the Cardinals have faced already has them battle-tested and ready for this big showdown.

Yes, Clemson did beat Appalachian State 41-10, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. Clemson only outgained Appalachian State 392-298 for the game, or by 94 total yards. It simply took advantage of four Mountaineer turnovers, even returning an interception for a touchdown.

Clemson did not fare well on the road last year at all.  It went 2-3 in road games with losses to Georgia (by 24), Florida State (by 6, FSU was playing backup QB) and Georgia Tech (by 22).  It's only road wins last year came against Boston College (by 4) and Wake Forest (by 14 as 21-point favorites).

Louisville will also be motivated for revenge from a 23-17 road loss to Clemson last season. It was an 8.5-point underdog in that game and arguably outplayed the Tigers despite losing. The Cardinals outgained the Tigers by 35 total yards in the game. Their defense held Clemson to just 229 yards of total offense.  In fact, the Tigers scored two non-offensive touchdowns with one punt return and one fumble return, so they pretty much did nothing offensively.  They aren't going to be so fortunate with those non-offensive touchdowns again.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 48-15 (76.2%) ATS since 1992. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games. The Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Louisville is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 conference games.  Take Louisville Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +6.5

These are two teams headed in opposite directions in 2015.  The San Jose State Spartans are clearly a team on the rise that is undervalued, while the Air Force Falcons are primed to decline and are overvalued right now.  That creates the perfect storm to back an SJSU team that I fully expect to win outright Saturday.

San Jose State has had some very poor luck in Ron Carragher's first two seasons.  The Spartans did go 6-6 in 2013, but were not selected to a bowl game.  They slipped to 3-9 last year despite finishing with the third-best yardage differential (+82.8 yards/game) of all Mountain West teams.  They outgained all opponents by 42 yards per game on the season.  But they were -12 in turnovers and had poor offensive (20.4) and defensive (12.1) yards per point.

With 16 returning starters this season, the Carragher has by far his best team yet.  That was evident in the opener as San Jose State crushed New Hampshire 43-13.  Sure, New Hampshire is an FCS team, but it entered the 2015 season as the No. 7 FCS team in the country.  What did Vegas think of New Hampshire?  Well, SJSU was only a 6-point favorite, yet it won by 30 points.

Believe it or not, that 30-point win actually should have been bigger.  The Spartans outgained New Hampshire 707-186, or by 521 total yards.  That's right, the Spartans racked up 707 yards of total offense.  This was an offense that brought back a whopping 10 returning starters from last year, so it was going to be good, but nobody expected it to be this good.  Before long the secret will be out and there won't be as much value in backing SJSU, but for right now, this team is completely flying under the radar.

Air Force was the most improved team in the country last year, going from 2-10 in 2013 to 10-3 in 2014.  But the Falcons had 16 starters back last season after having just 10 back the year before, so they were bounce-back candidates.  They certainly weren't as good as their 10-3 record would indicate, though.  They were actually outgained by 20.1 yards per game in Mountain West play in spite of their 5-3 record.

Now the Falcons return just 11 starters this season. They lose QB Kale Pearson, who had a 14-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season and actually gave the Falcons a threat of a passing game, which is something they rarely have running the triple-option.  They only have four starters back on defense from a unit that had nine starters back last year and gave up 395 yards per game.  This is going to be one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  To compare, SJSU only gave up 357 yards per game last season

Air Force also beat an FCS opponent in Morgan State 63-7 last week.  But Morgan State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country as the Falcons were 32.5-point favorites in that game.  The Falcons also used a special teams touchdown and a defensive TD to pad the score.  I'm not saying the Falcons won't be decent again, but I really believe the Spartans are the better team in this one.

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is 2-9 ATS in a home game when the total is 56.5 to 63 as the coach of Air Force.  His teams rarely have the firepower to keep up in shootouts, which is what this game is expected to be.  San Jose State is 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games after scoring 37 or more points in its previous game.  The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Air Force is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 conference games.  Take San Jose State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Western Michigan -4.5

I am very high on the Western Michigan Broncos this season and believe they are the best team in the MAC.  Head coach PJ Fleck went just 1-11 in his first season in Kalamazoo, but then guided the Broncos to one of the best turnarounds in the country with an 8-5 record in 2014.

The blew a 21-10 halftime lead to Northern Illinois, otherwise they would have gone on to win the MAC Championship.  They are even stronger in 2015 with 16 returning starters.  This is easily the most talented team in the MAC.  They return QB Zach Terrell, who completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,443 yards with a 26-to-10 TD/INT ratio.

Leading rusher Jarvion Franklin (1,551 yards, 24 TD) and all of the top receivers are back, including Corey Davis (78 receptions, 1,408 yards, 15 TD) and Daniel Braverman (86, 997, 6 TD).  The defense is going to be even better this year with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 24.9 points per game last year.

I was very impressed with WMU in the opener.  It only lost 24-37 at home to Michigan State, which is considered a national title contender.  It was only outgained by 69 total yards against the Spartans.  The defense limited senior QB Connor Cook to 15-of-31 passing, and they held their own against the run.  Terrell went wild on a very good Spartans' defense, completing 33-of-50 passes for 365 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  That effort proved to me that my lofty expectations for this team are warranted.

Georgia Southern caught everyone by surprise last year en route to a 9-3 season that included a perfect 8-0 record in the Sun Belt and a conference championship.  It won't have that luxury again now that teams have game tape on them to go off of after last season was their first as a member of the FBS.

The Eagles do have a respectable 13 returning starters back, but their most important returning starter is suspender.  QB Kevin Ellison, who was the leader of this team last year and their most important player, has been suspended for the first two games of the season.  Ellison threw for 1,001 yards and five touchdowns against three interceptions last year, but rushed for 1,096 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per game.

This offense clearly missed Ellison in the opener.  Georgia Southern was destroyed 44-0 at West Virginia as 16-point underdogs.  The Eagles were outgained 544-224 for the game, or by 320 total yards.  Backup QB Favian Upshaw went just 2-of-13 passing for 29 yards with a whopping four interceptions in the loss.  It's clear to me after that performance that Georgia Southern is nothing without Ellison, and that's it's defense is not going to be able to hold up against this high-powered WMU offense.

Plays against any team (GA SOUTHERN) - poor passing team from last season - averaged 150 or less passing yards/game, with 8 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on of 3.5 to 10 points (W MICHIGAN) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS since 1992.  The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  WMU is 9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Western Michigan Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK Eastern Michigan +13.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with Eastern Michigan off three straight 2-10 seasons.  That's understandable, but this team is going to make some real progress in the second year under Chris Creighton in 2015.  He welcomes back 13 starters this season, and after the Eagles went just 2-10 ATS last year, they are going to be showing a lot of value this season early and often.

That was the case against Old Dominion in the opener as the Eagles were 6.5-point underdogs and covered the spread, losing by a final of 34-38.  That was a solid Old Dominion team that had gone 6-6 the previous season with impressive wins over Louisiana Tech and Rice.  The Eagles arguably should have beaten the Monarchs, too.

They outgained Old Dominion 444-413 for the game, but only lost due to a -3 turnover differential.  They also had QB Reginald Ball get hurt after they were tied going into the 4th quarter.  Ball is questionable to return this week, but head Creighton is optimistic, and even if Ball cannot go then he is very confident in backup Brogan Roback.

“Brogan (Roback) is prepared and he’s taken nearly as many reps all of fall camp as Reggie has,” Creighton said of his sophomore backup. “We have two quality quarterbacks.”  Bell went 12-of-18 passing for 117 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, while Roback was 10-of-17 for 71 yards with in interception while filling in for him.

While I do believe the Eagles are vastly improved this season, the biggest reason for this play is that I do not believe Wyoming should be getting this much love from oddsmakers.  The Cowboys went just 4-8 in Craig Bohl's first season last year despite having 16 returning starters.  Now they have only nine returning starters in 2015 and are pretty much rebuilding, while Eastern Michigan is past that rebuilding phase.

Wyoming showed its rebuilding ways in its 13-24 home loss to FCS foe North Dakota despite being 18-point favorites in the opener.  It was dominated in all phases of the game, which is a bad sign when you consider North Dakota isn't even among the top 30 FCS teams in the country.  North Dakota outgained Wyoming 429-330 for the game, or by 99 total yards.  The Cowboys could only managed 2.2 yards per rush with 41 yards on 19 carries.  Conversely, they gave up 276 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry to North Dakota.

Just like Eastern Michigan, Wyoming QB Cameron Coffman is questionable to play and will likely be a game-time decision.  That's big because Coffman threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns against North Dakota in a losing effort.  Coffman is a former Indiana transfer who actually finished second in passing yards per game in the Big Ten back in 2012.  Even if by chance Coffman plays and Ball does not, I still like EMU to cover this spread with ease.

Plays against favorites (WYOMING) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against a home team (WYOMING) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 44-11 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Wyoming is 0-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in its last game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +13

I actually have UMass picked to win the MAC East division this season, that's how highly I think of them despite going 5-31 over the past three seasons.  Head coach Mark Whipple was here from '98-'03 and took over a 2-9 team and led them to the IAA National Championship in his first season.

Whipple inherited a 1-11 team last year and took the Minutemen to 3-9, but this had to be one of the best 9-loss teams in the country.  The Minutemen had 5 losses by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 3 to both Colorado and Vanderbilt, by 5 to Bowling Green after leading in the 4th quarter, blew a 41-14 lead against Miami to lose by 1, and gave up a touchdown with 34 seconds left to lose to Toledo by 7.

Now the Minutemen return 19 starters and will be under the radar from the get-go.  That includes QB Blake Frohnapfel, maybe the most underrated QB in the entire country.  How important is Frohnapfel to this team?  Well, the Minutemen have outgained MAC opponents by 108 yards per game with him, and they've been outgained by 197 yards per game without him.

Frohnapfel threw for 3,345 yards and 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions over the team's first 10 starts last year.  The offense is going to be explosive again after averaging 421 yards per game last season with 10 starters back.  But look for huge improvements on defense with nine starters back from a unit that gave up 448 yards per game last season with only five starts back.  The Minutemen have a very nice set of LB's and DB's in particular.

I really thought Colorado had a chance to make some progress this year, but it's clear after a 28-20 loss at Hawaii in the opener that the Buffaloes are still hurting.  They turned the ball over three times and QB Sefo Liufau went just 23-of-40 passing for 158 yards with an interception.  That is not a very good Hawaii team, and one that has lost at least nine games each of the past three seasons.

UMass gave Colorado a run for its money last year.  It only lost 38-41 at home as 17.5-point underdogs.  Frohnapfel threw for 267 yards and three touchdowns with one pick in the loss.  I believe the Minutemen will be hungry for revenge in the rematch exactly one year later.  This spread has simply been set way too high due to the 19 starters the Minutemen have returning from that 3-point defeat to the Buffaloes.

The Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games.  UMass is 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game.  Colorado has just 10 wins over the past four seasons and enters this contest on a 9-game losing streak.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Connecticut -7

The UConn Huskies are a team that is flying under the radar entering 2015.  They went just 2-10 in head coach Bob Diaco's first season last year.  But they had just 12 returning starters, and now that number jumps to 14 with 52 lettermen returning and only 13 letter winners lost.  I fully expect the Huskies to be improved in the second season under Diaco.

They are off to a promising start.  Despite facing an FCS opponent in Villanova, the Huskies were actually 7-point underdogs in their opener.  Well, when you consider Villanova is the No. 2 ranked FCS team in the country, it's easy to see why.  That's why the Huskies' 20-15 win over Villanova wasn't your usual blah FCS win.

Connecticut is going to have a very good defense this season, just as it did last year when it gave up a respectable 379 yards per game.  But now eight starters are back on this side of the ball, and this will be the backbone of the team.  The Huskies played well defensively, giving up just 303 total yards to Villanova in the opener.  It help them to 3.2 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per pass.

UConn is going to be much better offensively this season behind sophomore Bryant Shirreffs, a former NC State transfer.  He's off to a great start by completing 12 of 20 passes for 202 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against Villanova.  He threw a 27-yard TD pass to Akeel Newsome with 4:53 remaining to put the game out of reach.  The Huskies led 20-9 at that point before a touchdown in garbage time by Villanova with 1:54 left.

Army is coming off a 4-8 season last year despite having 14 returning starters.  It now has just 10 returning starters in 2015, while losing each of its top three rushers on offense, including QB Angle Santiago.  The defense gave up 32.9 points and 431 yards per game last season and has just five starters back and will be awful again.

That was evident in Army's 35-37 home loss to Fordham last week.  Fordham is another FCS opponent, but it was only ranked No. 21 in the FCS rankings and nowhere near as good as Villanova.  The Black Knights were expected to roll as 13.5-point favorites, but it simply did not happen.  They were actually outgained by 56 yards in the game and gave up 445 yards to Fordham.  I believe that effort will be a sign of things to come for Army in 2015, especially this week given the situation.

UConn will be motivated for revenge in this one.  It lost to Army 21-35 last year on the road, but now it gets the Black Knights at home in the rematch.  That was far from the 14-point game that it appeared to be as the Huskies were only outgained 353-365 for the game.  UConn was actually going in for the game-tying score when Army intercepted a pass and returned it 99 yards for a TD with only 28 seconds remaining.

Army is 0-10 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.  UConn is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off an upset win as an underdog.  The Black Knights are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games overall.  Take UConn Saturday.

20* Utah State/Utah ESPN 2 Rivalry Play on Utah -11.5

The Utah Utes are coming off their best season since joining the Pac-12.  They went 9-4 last year and finished with a winning record within the Pac-12 for the first time.  Sure, they were fortunate to win a lot of close games, but this is a team that can compete in the stacked South division.

With 14 starters and 61 lettermen back, this is Kyle Whittingham's best team that he has had at Utah yet.  I liked what I saw from the Utes in their opener against Michigan as they led 24-10 before giving up a garbage touchdown with only 54 seconds to play for a 24-17 victory.  That was a Michigan team that will prove to be vastly improved this year as the season goes on, and when we look back, I believe that win over the Wolverines will be even more impressive than it is today.

I certainly was not impressed with Utah State in its opener.  It only beat Southern Utah 12-9 despite being 31-point favorites.  It actually needed an 88-yard punt return for a touchdown with 4:54 left to play to overcome a 9-5 deficit.  I believe that performance is a sign of things to come for this team not only Friday, but as the season progresses.

The Aggies only managed 250 total yards on Southern Utah.  Chuckie Keeton clearly isn't what he used to be as injuries have really taken their toll on him throughout his career.  Keeton went just 16-of-33 passing for 110 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for only seven yards on six carries.

Utah State is missing some key players in this one.  Starting WR Brandon Swindall is questionable with a hamstring injury, and starting LG Tyshon Mosley is expected to miss this game due to suspension.  But the biggest loss is WR Hunter Sharp, who was by far their best receiver last year.  He had 66 receptions for 939 yards and seven touchdowns last season, and he has been suspended for this game.  Utah checks in very healthy.

Keep in mind that Utah beat a very good Mountain West team in Colorado State 45-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl last year.  That's a Colorado State team that went 10-3 and was certainly better than Utah State.  I would even argue that the Rams were nearly as good as Boise State last year, and the Utes beat them by 35.

Utah is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Utah State.  Eight of its last nine wins in the series have come by 16 points or more.  The Utes are 38-17-2 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games, including 8-0 ATS in non-conference games over the past three seasons.  The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last four September games.  Bet Utah Friday.

15* LA Tech/WKU Conference USA ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech -1.5

Louisiana Tech was easily the second-best team in Conference USA last season.  It won the West division and went on to face Marshall in the Championship Game, losing that contest by a final of 23-26 as 7-point underdogs.  That was a Marshall team that went 13-1 last year and rarely played any close games.

Now the Bulldogs return 13 starters this season and are clearly a threat to win Conference USA again.  They do lose QB Cody Sokol, but they brought in former No. 1 QB recruit in the country in Jeff Driskel, a Florida transfer.  This is Driskel's senior season and his last chance to shine, so he's going to be committed to this team.  Plus, it doesn't hurt that he's going from facing very tough SEC competition to Conference USA competition, which is like night and day.

It also doesn't hurt that Driskel has all of his top playmakers back from last year.  Leading rusher Kenneth Dixon (1,299 yards, 22 TD) and each of his top three receivers in Trent Taylor (64 receptions, 834 yards, 9 TD), Carlos Henderson (29, 569, 4 TD) and Paul Turner (42, 514, 4 TD) are also back.  The Bulldogs return six starters and each of their top two tacklers on defense from a unit that gave up a respectable 24.7 PPG last year as well.

Driskel and company put on a show in their 62-15 rout of Southern in the opener.  They led 52-8 at halftime before calling off the dogs.  That was plenty of time for Driskel to complete 12-of-15 passes for 274 yards and four touchdowns.  It was also enough time for Kenneth Dixon to rack up 171 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on only 11 touches.  It's safe to say that this offense is going to be explosive again.

Western Kentucky does have 16 starters back from last year and is among the favorites to win Conference USA as well.  But I just do not trust this team, especially defensively, where they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game last season.  Plus, the Hilltoppers were not impressive at all in their opener against the worst team from the SEC in Vanderbilt.

Sure, they won the game 14-12 as 2-point favorites, but the box score indicates that the Hilltoppers were dominated.  They simply benefited from three costly Vanderbilt turnovers.  They were outgained 246-393, or by 147 total yards.  Their running game produced only 37 yards on 23 carries for an average of 1.6 per carry.  Brandon Doughty was held to 209 passing yards and one touchdown, which are terrible numbers for him.  The Commodores, not known for their offense, racked up 393 yards on this soft defense.  I just believe it's a sign of things to come for the Hilltoppers in this game.

Plus, Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky 59-10 last year in a game that was every bit the 49-point blowout that the final score would indicate.  The Bulldogs outgained the Hilltoppers 517-297 for the game.  They held Doughty to 14-of-35 passing for 134 yards and one touchdown with four interceptions.  Sokol threw for 335 yards and five touchdowns in the win.  It's clear that Holtz and company have the antidote for this WKU offense. 

Can the Hilltoppers improve by 49 points from one season to the next? It's highly unlikely.  LA Tech is 9-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last two seasons.  WKU is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the last three years.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Take Louisiana Tech Thursday.

20* Ohio State/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +14

While I don’t expect the Buckeyes to overlook the Hokies again, I do believe Virginia Tech is fully capable of pulling off another upset. I am very high on the Hokies heading into 2015 because they return 16 starters and this will be one of Frank Beamer’s best teams yet. I predicted that they’d win the Coastal Division and make the ACC Championship Game this year coming into the season.

This is a Virginia Tech team that has won at least 10 games in eight straight seasons prior to failing to win more than eight each of the last three years. Beamer enters his 29th season in Blacksburg and desperately wants to get back to the top of the ACC, which has been a familiar spot for this program up until recently. With 58 lettermen back as well, this team has the depth and talent to do so.

The offense held the Hokies back last year, but it should be vastly improved in 2015 with eight starters back. Quarterback Michael Brewer is now a senior who will be more efficient in Year 2 of the system. He went 23-of-36 for 199 yards against the Buckeyes last season and will be able to lean on that performance to put together another solid one in the rematch. Each of the top three receivers from last year were freshmen, and all three are now sophomores and will have much better chemistry with Brewer.

But the reason Virginia Tech has a chance to pull the upset is its defense. It allowed 20.2 points and 344 yards per game last season and will be even stronger in 2015. That’s because eight starters return on this side of the ball. The entire defensive line returns intact and will be one of the best in the country. The secondary gave up just 199 yards per game and 47.7 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks last season, and now three starters are back, including future NFL star Kendall Fuller at corner.

Ohio State simply enters the 2015 season overvalued due to winning the National Championship. It will have a hard time living up to expectations now, and I believe if you went against the Buckeyes ATS in every game this season, you would come out on top. Some of the spreads they have set for their games are ridiculous, including this one. While there’s no denying that the Buckeyes have the easiest path to get to the four-team playoff because they play in the Big Ten, they just aren’t going to be as dominant as most think.

The Buckeyes will be missing some key players in this game. Defensive end Joey Bosa, H-Back Jalin Marshall, WR Corey Smith and H-Back Dontre Wilson are all suspended. Bosa is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft, so his loss is huge. Marshall (30 receptions, 499 yards, 6 TD), Wilson (21, 300, 3 TD) and Smith (20, 255) are three of the team’s top four returning receivers as well. These losses are huge and will put the Buckeyes at a big disadvantage in the opener. Keep in mind that Beamer is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Virginia Tech.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* Purdue/Marshall Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Purdue +7.5

This is the year that Purdue makes a big leap forward.  Darrell Hazell enters his 3rd season with the Boilermakers, and he's squarely on the hot seat after going 1-11 in his first season and 3-9 last year.  But all signs are pointing up for this team heading into 2015.

The Boilermakers actually made big improvements last year despite only improving by two wins.  They were outscored by 23.1 points per game in 2013, but just 7.9 points per game last year, making 15.2-point improvement.  Another big jump can be expected this year with a whopping 15 starters and 50 lettermen back and only 17 letter winners lost.  Coaches usually make their biggest jump in Year 3, and it will be no different for Hazell.

The offense improved by roughly 8 points and 62 yards per game from 2013 last year.  Another step forward should be taken with eight starters back on this side of the ball.  They return leading receiver Danny Anthrop, who had 616 receiving yards and four touchdowns despite missing the final three games last year.

The defense improved by 7.3 points and 44 yards per game from 2013 to 2014.  Again, another step forward can be expected with seven starters and four of their top five tacklers back.  There was concern about some injuries at linebacker, but all three returning starters at LB are expected to be ready to go against Marshall.

The Thundering Herd enter the 2015 season overvalued because of how well they did last season.  They went 13-1 last season, but the only relevant team they faced all year was Western Kentucky, and they lost that game.  Marshall's schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in every game and by double-digits 12 times.

After having 14 starters back last year, the Thundering Herd only have 11 starters returning in 2015.  They lose the school's all-time leading passer in Rakeem Cato (14,079 yards), which is the program's biggest loss since Randy Moss left for the NFL.  They also lose leading receiver Tommy Shulder (92 receptions, 1,138 yards, 9 TD), who had 55 more receptions than second place on the team.

The offense is sure to take a huge step back with those two losses, and the defense only have five starters back.  They lose their top two tacklers who each registered more than 100 tacklers last year.  They only have two returning starters among the front seven, so they are going to be much weaker up front defensively.

The value is clearly with the Big Ten team over the team from Conference USA in this one.  Most of the time, the Big Ten team would be favored in this situation.  But since Purdue only won four games the past two years combined, and Marshall won 13 games last year alone, the betting public is quick to jump on the Thundering Herd.  But these are two teams headed opposite directions entering 2015 folks.  The Boilermakers are on the rise, while the Thundering Herd are in rebuilding mode.  Bet Purdue Sunday.

20* Wisconsin/Alabama ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -12

This one is pretty easy for me. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the supremely talented team, but I believe the questions surrounding the quarterback position have kept this line lower than it should be. When is the last time Alabama didn’t have good quarterback play? Not since Nick Saban has been here, and I’m sure whoever they go with will be more than good enough to lead them to a blowout win over the Badgers.

The questions for the Crimson Tide are on offense with just three returning starters and the loss of Amari Cooper, but the talent on this side of the ball is second to none. This is an offense that put up 36.9 points and 485 yards per game last season in the first year under coordinator Lane Kiffin. They will be explosive again with the new starters ready to step in and pick up where they left off.

But what really excites me about this Alabama team is the defense. It only gave up 18.4 points and 328 yards per game last year despite having only five starters back. Now, the Crimson Tide will have one of their best defenses of the Saban era with seven starters returning. Five of seven starters are back up front and will be prepared to stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack. The Crimson Tide only gave up 102 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry last season.

This is a match-up tailor made for the Crimson Tide. The only offenses they have struggled with through the years are ones that spread you out and pass it all over the field. Wisconsin doesn’t have that ability. It has one of the worst quarterback situations in the country. Senior Joel Stave completed just 53.4 percent of his passes for 1,350 yards with a 9-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio last year. He is back as the starter, and the Crimson Tide aren’t going to have to worry about the Badgers' passing game one bit with Stave at the helm.

Yes, the Badgers always have an explosive running game and a great offensive line. That should be the case again even though they lose Melvin Gordon and three starters along the offensive line. I don’t expect them to be as dominant on the ground as they were last year with the losses, but they will be good. But Alabama stops the run as well as almost anyone, so again, it’s just a perfect match-up for the Crimson Tide.

I do believe Wisconsin will have a solid defense this year after giving up just 20.8 points and 294 yards per game last season. It will be tough to match those numbers with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top five tacklers, but this will be a good unit. I do not expect them to hold Alabama to less than 30 points, though, and getting to 30 points will be more than enough for the Crimson Tide to cover this 10.5-point spread. Their defense isn’t going to allow more than 14 points.

Wisconsin may be overvalued here due to beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl last year.  But that was an Auburn team that was disappointed to be playing in a lesser bowl after making the National Championship Game the year before.  A better indication of what type of team the Badgers were was in their 59-0 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  Alabama lost to Ohio State as well, but led 21-6 early and only lost 35-42 in the four-team playoff.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Alabama) who won 80% or more of their games last season, in non-conference games between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Alabama is simply on another level than Wisconsin with the way it has recruited over the last several years with the top classes in the country.  Wisconsin has talent, but it is adjusting to new systems under first-year head coach Paul Chryst.  Playing a team of Alabama's caliber is not a good way to break in new systems.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M -3

I am very high on the Texas A&M Aggies this season and believe they are primed for a run at the SEC West title. They come into this season undervalued because they have gone from 11, to 9 to 8 wins in Sumlin’s first three seasons. But last year was expected to be a down year because they lost Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans and a plethora of talent.

After having just 11 returning starters each of the last two seasons, the Aggies are now a more veteran bunch as they return 16 starters in 2015. They were forced to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now those players are a year older and ready to take that next step. After all, Sumlin continues to come away with one elite recruiting class after another. It’s going to pay off sooner rather than later.

The Aggies played a freshman QB in Kyle Allen last year, and two of their top four receivers were freshmen as well. All three return and this is going to be one of the best receiving corps in the country. The Aggies still managed 35.2 points and 455 yards per game last year despite their youth, and now they should have no problem returning to close to the 44 points per game they averaged when Manziel was running the show.

But what really has me excited about this team is the defense. The Aggies managed to lure former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis to oversee the play-calling duties. He steps into a great situation with eight returning starters on defense. This will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 28.1 points and 451 yards per game last year. Their best players was a freshman in Myles Garrett, who recorded 11.5 sacks and will be an even bigger beast as a sophomore.  He even played injured down the stretch last year, and teammates think so much of him that they have named him a captain.

I am certainly not down on the Arizona State Sun Devils this season with 16 returning starters as well, but I do believe they were very fortunate to win 10 games last year. They benefited from a +14 turnover differential, and despite going 6-3 in Pac-12 play, they were actually outgained by 15 yards per game against conference opponents last season.

I don’t expect their offense to be as good with the loss of QB Taylor Kelly and leading receiver Jaelen Strong (82 receptions, 1,165 yards, 10 TD). Their defense did not play all that well last season as they allowed 27.9 points and 417 yards per game. While they could be improved in that area, I don’t expect them to take as big of a leap forward as Texas A&M on this side of the ball. The Aggies have loads more talent defensively than the Sun Devils do when you look at the recruiting rankings.

Finally, Texas A&M will have a home-field advantage despite this game being played at a neutral site.  It's only about a 1.5-hour drive from College Station to Houston, which will be the site of this game.  Meanwhile, it's over 16 hours from Tempe, AZ to Houston.  It's safe to say that the Aggies will have a distinct advantage with the crowd.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Tennessee -21

I’m about as big on Tennessee this season as anyone. In fact, I have picked them to win the SEC East with a 10-2 record. The reason is pretty simple. Butch Jones has put together back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes, so the talent is going to deliver the goods with this team sooner rather than later.

We saw it at the end of last year. The Vols went 4-1 over their final five games once Josh Dobbs took over as their starting quarterback. They scored 45 or more points three times during that stretch, and finished it by averaging 33.0 points per game. Dobbs completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,206 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 469 yards and eight scores. His dual-threat ability really opened up this offense.

Now Dobbs is a junior and he’s among a loaded roster that returns 18 starters and some of the best talent in the entire SEC.  Jones was forced to play 23 true freshmen last season, and now those guys are all a year older.  With the way this team finished last season by making a bowl and blowing out Iowa in it, that's a definite positive sign of things to come.

The offense is only going to pick up where it left off last year with 10 returning starters.  After having no returning starters on the offensive line last year, the Vols now return four starters up front.  Each of their receivers who factored into the passing game last year are back, as is leading rusher Jalen Hurd (899 yards, 5 TD).

The defense will continue to build on the strides it made last year. The Vols only allowed 24.2 points per game last season with five starters back, and now they have eight starters back on defense and should come close to the 20 PPG range.  They are very excited about their defensive line, which returns sophomore DE Derek Barnett (72 tackles, 21.5 for loss, 10 sacks).  The linebacker corps returns senior SLB Curt Maggitt (11 sacks), giving the Vols two double-digit sack guys back from last year.

This is the perfect storm because I’m also down on Bowling Green. The Falcons won the MAC East title last year but took advantage of a very soft division. They wound up losing to Northern Illinois 51-17 in the MAC Title game, which is more indicative of the type of team this really was, rather than an eight-game winner.

The Falcons do return 10 starters on offense and should be fine there, but the defense is what concerns me. They gave up 33.5 points and 494 yards per game last season with only five starters back. Now they return five starters again and I don’t see the numbers improving. That’s because they lose each of their top four tacklers and arguably their best four players on this side of the football.

Bowling Green was overwhelmed in its two non-conference road games last season. It lost 31-59 at Western Kentucky and 17-68 at Wisconsin. I believe this 2015 Tennessee team is better than both of those squads, and it’s not really even close. I look for the Falcons to get blown out of the building in their first non-conference road game of 2015 as well.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -6.5

James Franklin had his work cut out for him in his first season at Penn State. He was coming off back-to-back improbable 9-4 campaigns at Vanderbilt, which is no small feat. He did have 12 returning starters to work with last year and reduced sanctions, but it was still a tall task to ask for him to win in his first season.  The Nittany Lions wound up finishing 7-6 after beating Boston College 31-30 in the Pinstripe Bowl. They took national champion Ohio State into double-overtime, which shows what they are capable of.

Things are looking up for Penn State entering 2015. It has 15 returning starters, went 2-6 in Big Ten play last year despite only getting outgained by 7.5 yards per game, and now it goes from having 64 scholarship players in 2014 to 83 in 2015. That will dramatically improve their depth at all positions.  It was amazing to see the Penn State faithful fill Beaver Stadium during the probation period over the last three years. Now, those fans should be rewarded with some solid football under Franklin going forward.

The offense is in line for massive improvement after averaging just 20.6 points per game last season.  QB Christian Hackenberg is among eight returning starters on offense.  While Hackenberg had a down season last year, most experts believe he will be the first QB taken in the 2016 NFL Draft. 

The reason he struggled so much was because of inexperience along the offensive line.  But after having just one O-line starter back last year, the Nittany Lions return four starters and add in two very highly touted linemen.  The skill positions are in good hands as well with leading rusher Akeel Lynch (678 yards, 4.6/carry, 4 TD) and each of their top two receivers back in DaeSean Hamilton (82 receptions, 899 yards, 2 TD) and Geno Lewis (55, 751, 2 TD).

Penn State had one of the best defenses in the nation last year.  It allowed just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game.  With seven starters and five of its top six tacklers back on defense, this is going to be one of the top stop units in the country again.

Temple should be improved this season, but not as much as Penn State.  The Owls went 6-6 last year and return 19 starters.  But they went 4-4 in American Athletic play despite getting outgained by 69.5 yards per game.  Their defense is going to be solid again with 10 starters back, but the offense just doesn't have that much talent.

The Owls only managed 23.1 points per game last season.  Quarterback PJ Walker is experienced with two years as a starter under his belt, but he regressed last year and was simply forced to do too much.  He won't have much luck against this Penn State defense, which again, is one of the best in the country.

Penn State is 31-0 in its last 31 meetings with Temple with its last loss coming in 1941.  It beat Temple 30-13 at home last year while outgaining the Owls 366-248 for the game.  The Nittany Lions rushed for 254 yards in a turnover fest that saw both QB's combine to throw six interceptions.  A similar result can be expected in the 2015 meeting with a 17-point road victory for the Nittany Lions just about right.

Franklin is 15-5 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The talent gap between these teams is just enormous, but the spread isn't reflecting that, providing us with some nice value by laying the small number on the Nittany Lions.  Take Penn State Saturday.

15* Baylor/SMU ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 74

Last year, these teams played to a 45-0 game that was 29 points less than Friday’s posted total of 74. I can see a similar result, or something in the 52-17 range in favor of Baylor, which would still be UNDER the total. I simply believe that both teams are going to be better defensively this year.

The reason for Baylor fans to be excited is because this is going to be Art Briles’ best defense yet. While the offense gets all the hype, it’s the defense that has made the most strides in recent years. The Bears gave up 23.5 points and 360 yards per game in 2013, and 25.5 points and 382 yards per game in 2014. Now they return nine starters on defense, and I expect them to put up their best numbers of the Briles era in 2015.

The Bears have the best defensive line in the Big 12 with all four starters returning, led by athletic freak Shawn Oakman at defensive end, who earned 1st-team All-Big 12 honors last year. The linebacker corps does lose two starters, but the entire secondary returns intact. A strong defensive line and a strong secondary gives SMU little chance of being successful here.

I don’t expect Baylor to be as potent offensively this year. Yes, it does return nine starters on offense as well, but it loses QB Bryce Petty to the NFL. I’m not sold on Seth Russell as being anywhere near the passer that Petty was. Russell only completed 56.5 percent of his passes last year and did not impress me at all in the limited action he received in place of an injury Petty.

Simply put, SMU was horrible in all phases last year. It was especially poor on offense, putting up 11.1 points and 269 yards per game. It averaged just 100 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. I do expect it to be better under the guidance of first-year head coach Chad Morris, who was the offensive coordinator at Clemson before coming here. But make no mistake, this SMU offense is still going to be one of the worst in the FBS.

One key factor here with backing the UNDER is that a blowout will lead to a very low-scoring second half. The same thing happened last year with Baylor jumping out to a 31-0 lead at half before calling off the dogs in the 45-0 win.  I expect Baylor to take its foot off the gas late in this game as well.

SMU will be lucky to score 10-14 points in this one against this superior Baylor defense. The Bears will simply run out the clock in the 4th quarter and get away from the up-tempo attack that will have gotten them a big lead. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan/Utah 2015 CFB Season Opener on Michigan +5

Brady Hoke did not get the most out the talent he had on hand at Michigan.  The Wolverines went from 11 wins in his first season, to 8, 7 and 5 the next three years, which is simply unacceptable in Ann Arbor.  That's why they brought in Jim Harbaugh, which was the biggest offseason hire at any program.

Harbaugh had success as a quarterback here, and he's won everywhere he's gone as a head coach.  He went 29-6 at San Diego, 29-21 at Stanford, and 49-22-1 as the head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers.  The guy is a proven winner who will get this program on the right track from Day 1.

Harbaugh steps into a great situation, too.  He inherits 15 returning starters and 50 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners.  Make no mistake about it, Harbaugh will get the most out of these talented players.

He has been known as an offensive guru, and he'll certainly improve an offense that put up just 20.9 points and 333 yards per game last year.  Eight starters are back on offense, and he adds in Iowa transfer Jake Rudock at QB, who started 25 games for the Hawkeyes over two seasons.  It's not been announced whether Rudock or Shane Morris will start for competitive advantage reasons, but my best guess is Rudock.

To Hoke's credit, he did coach up the defense very well as the Wolverines allowed 22 or fewer points and 322 or fewer yards per game in three of his four seasons.  This is a stop unit that returns seven starters after allowing just 311 yards per game last season.  This will once again be one of the top defenses in the country because of the returning experience and talent on hand.

Utah comes into the season way overvalued.  The Utes went 9-4 last season and finished with a winning record in Pac-12 play for the first time as a member of the conference.  But they were actually outgained by 84.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play despite their 5-4 record, which was the worst yardage differential in the entire conference.  All five of their Pac-12 wins came by 6 points or less as well.

Michigan is going to be highly motivated following a 10-26 home loss to the Utes last season.  It actually outgained Utah 308-286 for the game, but finished -3 in turnover differential.  It committed four turnovers in the game, which was its Achilles heel all season last year as it finished -16 in turnover differential.  Harbaugh will demand that his quarterbacks take better care of the football, and the defense is sure to create more turnovers this year.

The biggest advantage for the Wolverines is that they have a bunch of new systems in place.  They have a new offensive coordinator in Tim Drevno, a new defensive coordinator in D.J. Durkin, and a new special teams coordinator in John Baxter.  Utah coach Kyle Whittingham cannot use game film from last year to game plan for the Wolverines.  I love the element of surprise that Michigan will have coming into this one.  Plus, Michigan knows what Utah is going to do after playing the Utes last year.  Utah's systems have not changed.

"It's just a hodgepodge of five, six or seven places," Whittingham told The Detroit Free Press' Mark Snyder. "We form the best-guess scenario. And that's what an opener is anyway, a best-guess scenario, we never really know. Even when you [face] a returning staff, there's still changes that come in the offseason in different schematics. But when you have a new staff, anything really is in the realm of possibility. We think we have a general idea of what to expect. You try to expose your players to everything you think they might see in fall camp. Build a game plan to accommodate all the possibilities."

Whittingham is 6-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Championship Game No-Brainer on Ohio State +7

While Oregon may be the better team, I just cannot foresee it blowing out Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played their two best games of the year coming into this one as Urban Meyer has his team hitting on all cylinders. They proved that their 59-0 beat down of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship was no fluke. After outgaining the Badgers by 300 total yards, the Buckeyes really dominated the Crimson Tide in the first round of the four-team playoff.

Alabama did score a late touchdown to get within 42-35, but that was as close as it would get. Statistically, this was actually a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Buckeyes outgained the Crimson Tide 537-407 for the game, or by 130 total yards. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries in the win. He now has 450 rushing yards in his last two games and is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. Cardale Jones threw for 243 yards and a touchdown with one pick against Alabama as well.

Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone a perfect 9-0 straight up and 9-0 against the spread in its last nine games overall. While that is impressive, it has the betting public quick to back the Ducks again. I believe these teams are much more evenly matched than this 7-point spread would indicate. It should be closer to a pick ‘em in my eyes, which means there is value in backing the dog.

Yes, Oregon beat Florida State handily 59-20, but that game was far from the blowout that the score shows. The Ducks only outgained the Seminoles by 111 total yards in the win. That’s a good margin, but not one that would warrant a 39-point blowout. The Seminoles simply gave the game away in the second half by committing five turnovers with four lost fumbles and an interception.

Florida State racked up 528 total yards on this suspect Oregon defense. The Ducks can score at will, but they clearly have the worse defense in this one. They are allowing an average of 421.9 yards per game on the season. Ohio State only gives up 22.1 points and 333.4 yards per game against teams that average 28.3 points and 396 yards per game, so it has been pretty elite defensively. I look for the Buckeyes to be the team that comes up with the more stops in this one, which will lead to a cover and possibly an outright win.

Ohio State has been pretty solid against the run, allowing an average of 142 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 188 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Stopping the run will be key because both teams love to run it. Oregon averages 242 rushing yards per game, while Ohio State puts up 262 yards per game on the ground. Oregon gives up 156 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry against teams that average 162 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, so it has been just mediocre against the run.

I have really been impressed with Ohio State’s ability to stop the run here of late against some very good rushing teams. The Buckeyes have held Michigan, Wisconsin and Alabama to a combined 120.7 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They limited Melvin Gordon and the Badgers to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries, Michigan to 121 yards on 38 carries, and Alabama to 170 yards on 34 carries.

Urban Meyer is 21-5 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Meyer is 15-4 ATS versus excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in all games he has coached. Ohio State is 31-11 ATS in its last 42 vs. excellent rushing teams that average at least 230 yards per game. The Buckeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12 opponents. Ohio State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  For what it's worth, the Buckeyes are 8-0 all-time against the Ducks.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game Monday.

15* ECU/Florida Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on East Carolina +7

The East Carolina Pirates are chomping at the bit at an opportunity to play a team from the SEC in the Birmingham Bowl and to prove that they are the real deal, just as they have against a few other Power 5 conference teams throughout the regular season. The Gators, meanwhile, are not happy to be here as they had much higher expectations coming into the year.

Due to underachieving for a second consecutive season, Florida head coach Will Muschamp was fired. The interim head coach will be defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who will also be out of a job at season’s end. That’s because new head coach Jim McElwain has already hired Mississippi State’s Geoff Collins to replace Durkin as defensive coordinator next season. So, the Gators are really in a state of limbo here, and I don’t expect them to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to put away ECU by more than a touchdown.

The Gators face an East Carolina offense that can put up points in bunches. The Pirates rank 5th in the FBS with 532.8 yards per game and tied for 14th with an average of 37.2 points. Their passing game was second with 367.3 yards per game. They didn’t just put up these numbers against weak competition, either.

In three consecutive matchups against Power 5 conference programs South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina, ECU averaged 581.3 yards and 40.3 points. It lost 33-23 at then-No. 21 South Carolina before a 28-21 win at then-No. 17 Virginia Tech and a 70-41 home blowout of North Carolina. Florida suffered a 23-20 overtime home loss to South Carolina on November 15 for the team’s only common opponent.

Shane Carden may be the most underrated quarterback in the entire country. He is completing 65.0% of his passes for 4,309 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, while also rushing for six scores on the season. The Pirates have three very good receivers in Justin Hardy (110 receptions, 1,334 yards, 9 TD), Cam Worthy (47, 886, 3 TD) and Isaiah Jones (75, 766, 5 TD) for Carden to get the ball to. Breon Allen (869 yards, 6.5/carry) and Chris Hairston (455 yards, 7.3/carry) are explosive in the running game as well.

Yes, the Gators have one of the better defenses in the country, but their offense is the reason why they aren’t going to put away the Pirates by a touchdown or more. Florida failed to crack 300 yards in five of 11 games this season. It ranked 11th in the SEC in total offense (370.2 yards/game), and its 12th-ranked passing attack (180.7 yards/game) never built any momentum in league play.

A big reason why the Pirates are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 163 yards per game this season is because they have actually been respectable defensively as well. They are giving up just 25.7 points per game and 369.7 yards per game this season. They did play the easier schedule than Florida, but what they did against those three Power 5 teams shows that they can play with anyone.

East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three years. They are coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. ECU is also 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Gators are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

20* Iowa/Tennessee TaxSlayer Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) are extremely excited to be playing in this bowl game after going 5-7 each of the last three years and missing out. This will be their first bowl game since 2010, and they’ll be looking for their first win in a bowl since 2007. There’s no question that the Vols are going to be highly motivated because of it, and I look for them to get that elusive bowl win over Iowa this year.

Not many teams could benefit from bowl practice as much as this Tennessee squad. Head coach Butch Jones has put together two of the top recruiting classes in the country in his two years here, and this is still a very young team. In fact, the Vols had to break in five new starters along the offensive line, and four new starters along the defensive line this year. They did a tremendous job of getting to a bowl game with all of this youth.

What makes this bowl berth even more impressive is the fact that Tennessee played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Just playing in the SEC makes the schedule tough, but the Vols also had to play three more bowl teams out of conference. They beat Utah State 38-7 and Arkansas State 34-19, but lost at Oklahoma 10-34. They also drew two of the best teams from the SEC West in Alabama and Ole Miss.

To no surprise, this young Tennessee team got better as the season went on. In fact, it was sitting at 3-5 needing three wins in its final four games to get to a bowl, and that’s precisely what it did. The Vols beat South Carolina 45-42 on the road, Kentucky 50-16 at home, and Vanderbilt 24-17 on the road in the season finale to get in. Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 21-29 to SEC East champ Missouri.

The Vols averaged 35 points per game over their final four games of the season. Their offense really took off once Joshua Dobbs took over for Justin Worley at quarterback with five games to go. He even played well in a 20-34 home loss to Alabama, and then proceeded to step up his game the rest of the way. Dobbs finished the season completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,077 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 393 yards and six scores in just five games. It’s his dual-threat ability that has really helped out this offense.

Tennessee has also been very good on the other side of the football. It is giving up just 23.9 points, 359.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 30.1 points, 400 yards per game and 5.8 per play. So, the Vols are holding their opponents to 6.2 points, 40 yards and 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season. This is the sign of a really good defense and one that will be able to limit a weak Iowa offense.

The Hawkeyes had a schedule that was set up to make a run at the Big Ten West division title this season. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan from the Big Ten East, and they got to play both Maryland and Indiana from that division. They also got to host fellow West contenders Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. Well, they managed to go just 4-4 within the Big Ten despite playing such a soft schedule.

Iowa went 1-4 against bowl teams this season, while Tennessee went 3-6 against bowl teams, which just shows you how much more difficult of a schedule the Volunteers played this year. Iowa lost to Nebraska (34-37) and Wisconsin (24-26) at home, while also falling at Minnesota (14-51) and at Maryland (31-38) on the road. Its only win over a bowl team was a 24-20 win at Pittsburgh. Tennessee’s six losses to bowl teams came against Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri. The Vols lost three of those six games by a combined 12 points.

Tennessee is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Vols are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games off two more more consecutive ATS losses. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Bet Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl Friday.

15* Ohio State/Alabama New Year's Day BAILOUT on Alabama -8.5

Alabama went through a gauntlet of a schedule this season to win the SEC in what is easily the best conference in the country. As a result, it is certainly battle-tested, and I would argue that it has played three to four teams this year that are better than Ohio State. Meanwhile, this will be by far the toughest test the Buckeyes have faced all season.

I personally do not believe the Buckeyes are one of the best four teams in the country. They simply benefited from playing a cake schedule, and Vegas seems to agree. There were 10 teams from the Big Ten that made bowl games this year, and all 10 of them are underdogs. That just goes to show you what Vegas thinks of the Big Ten this year. Ohio State may have won the conference, but that’s nothing compared to Alabama winning the SEC.

What has impressed me about Alabama the most this year is that it has had one of its best offenses in school history. It averages 37.1 points and 488.4 yards per game this season. Freshman Blake Sims has played like a seasoned veteran. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 3,236 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 294 yards and six scores.

If you look past Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin, you find that its defense was not playing well at all in the four games previous. It had given up at least 24 points in four straight games, and an average of 28.3 points per game during this stretch. It has given up 24 or more points a whopping eight times this year in 13 games. There’s no question the Crimson Tide are going to have their way with this Ohio State defense.

I would argue that Alabama has the best defense in the country when you factor in strength of schedule. It ranks 4th in the country in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game while ranking 11th in total defense at 312.1 yards per game. It is 2nd against the run at 88.4 yards per game and 2.8 per carry allowed. Alabama’s ability to stop the run is going to be the biggest reason as to why it wins and covers.

Ohio State relies very heavily on its rushing attack as it runs the ball 45 times per game for 261 yards compared to 27 pass attempts per game. It has to be an even more run-heavy team now that J.T. Barrett is out for this bowl game with an injury. Yes, backup Cardale Jones played well against Wisconsin, but he had the element of surprise with the Badgers. The Crimson Tide now have game tape on him and will certainly know what to expect. Jones won’t be nearly as effective against the best defense Ohio State has faced all season.

The Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Alabama is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games following three or more consecutive wins. The Crimson Tide are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Roll with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Thursday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8

There are many that believe the Florida State Seminoles (13-0) are not one of the best four teams in the country. They have won so many close games this season, seven by six points or less in fact, so their argument does have some weight. However, this team has played a much tougher schedule than they did a year ago, and I’m not so sure that this team isn’t as good as the one that won the national title last year.

There is something to be said for a team that just finds a way to win games. Florida State has now won a whopping 29 straight games dating back over the past three seasons. Now, the Seminoles find themselves in the role of the underdog for the first time in the last two years. They are getting no respect from the books in this game, and Jimbo Fisher will be using this as serious motivation for his players. While they may ultimately have their winning streak come to an end against the Ducks, I don’t believe it will be by 9 points or more, which is what it would take for Oregon to cover this ridiculous 8-point spread.

Oregon comes in way overvalued due to not only winning eight straight games, but also covering the spread in eight straight. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back the Ducks. This has forced oddsmakers to set the line for this game higher than it should be. It’s usually a wise move to fade the public, and that’s precisely what I’ll recommend doing in this game Thursday.

Florida State, on the other hand, actually comes in undervalued despite its perfect 13-0 record this year. That’s because it has gone just 3-10 ATS in all games. It simply created expectations for itself after winning the national title that it could not live up to this year. The Seminoles have been favored in every game they have played this year, and most of the time by too many points. That’s why there has been so much value in going against them up to this point. That fade value is now all gone, and it’s time to jump back on them.

The Seminoles boast an elite offense that puts up 34.8 points, 434.8 yards and 6.4 yards per play against opponents that allow just 25.3 points, 360 yards and 5.3 per play. So, they are scoring 10 points per game and averaging 75 yards per game more than their opponents allow on the season. Jameis Winston just finds a way to get it done when the game is in the balance, and my money is on him to do so on the biggest of stages again in this one.

Oregon has put up some gaudy numbers offensively this year. However, you have to factor in who they have played before you get too excited about this offense. They have played defenses that allow 31.7 points and 432 yards per game on the season. That is a much softer slate than what the Seminoles have been up against this year. I would only give the Ducks a slight edge on offense.

Defensively, the edge has to go to the Seminoles, who are giving up 23.0 points and 378.3 yards per game. Oregon allows 413.8 yards per game this season as its stop unit simply has not been that good. I believe one of the biggest reasons the Seminoles have a chance to win this game is their run defense, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry. Unlike most other teams the Ducks face, the Seminoles actually have the athleticism and speed defensively to match up with Oregon’s offense.

Florida State is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games coming in. The Seminoles are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. It has won six straight bowl games coming in and has not lost a bowl game by double-digits since 2003.  Bet Florida State in the Rose Bowl Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/Auburn Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -6.5

I was one of the biggest Auburn haters coming into the season that you will find. They were extremely fortunate to win the SEC and make it to the national title game last year as they won a ridiculous amount of close games along the way and got every break to go in their favor. Their season win total was set at 9.5 and it was one of my favorite ‘under’ bets coming into the year.

I wasn’t so sure I was going to cash that bet until the Tigers lost three of their final four games to close out the season. It was also very profitable to fade this team all year against the spread as they wound up with just a 4-8 ATS record. So, my instinct was correct on them being overvalued this season. However, I now am reversing roles and looking to back them as they are undervalued coming into the bowl game.

Indeed, Auburn has failed to cover the spread in four straight and six of their last seven. They have burned the betting public time and time again, and now the public wants nothing to do with them. When this happens, you can find a lot of value in backing these teams, and I believe that to be the case in this game. There’s no way Auburn should be laying less than a touchdown to Wisconsin.

For starters, the Tigers play in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West. Had they played in any other division in America, they would have probably won that division. There are no easy outs in the SEC West, and Auburn found that out the hard way, losing four games to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama.

I actually faded Auburn in the Alabama game thinking that the Tigers were going to get rolled. While the Crimson Tide did end up covering in an 11-point home win as 10-point favorites, I never felt like they deserved to cover as they trailed for most of the game. Auburn actually racked up 630 total yards on that Alabama defense, outgaining the Crimson Tide by 91 total yards in the game. It was that performance that makes me know that the Tigers are still a very good team and one of the best in the country.

Wisconsin beat up on a very easy schedule this season coming from the Big Ten, which is the worst of the Power 5 conferences. It managed to avoid BOTH Ohio State and Michigan State from the other division, and that fact alone made it the favorites to win its division. It wasn’t easy as the Badgers had to beat Minnesota 34-24 at home in the season finale to get into the championship game.

It was in that championship game that the Badgers’ true colors showed. They were outplayed in every phase of the game by Ohio State, losing that game 59-0 while getting outgained by 300 total yards. The Badgers managed just 258 yards and gave up 558 yards. I believe that Auburn is a better team than Ohio State, and while I don’t expect the Tigers to win this game by 59, I do expect them to win by a touchdown or more with relative ease.

Auburn was very good on both sides of the football this year. It put up 35.8 points, 489.6 yards per game and 6.7 per play against teams that only gave up 23.5 points, 371 yards per game and 5.3 per play. The Tigers gave up 26.1 points, 389.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that averaged 31.4 points, 417 yards per game and 5.9 per play.

Conversely, Wisconsin’s numbers look good on paper, but when you factor in the strength of opponents played, they no longer look that great. They played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their 10 wins coming against the likes of Western Illinois, Bowling Green, South Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. Not one of those teams is near the caliber of two of the three teams they lost to in LSU and Ohio State.  It also lost to Northwestern 14-20.

Auburn is 9-1 ATS after scoring 42 or more points in its last game over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 15.5 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their last game. They are winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by more than 20 points. Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  Take Auburn in the Outback Bowl Thursday.

20* GA Tech/Mississippi State New Year's Eve No-Brainer on Mississippi State -6.5

I would be willing to argue that the Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) are one of the top four teams in the country. Obviously, with two losses, they weren’t going to get into the four-team playoff over conference champions with one or fewer losses. However, finishing in second place in the toughest division in the country is no small feat. The Bulldogs had their chances to make the playoff after a 9-0 start, but they lost two of their final three games of the season.

I believe losing two of their final three games has the Bulldogs actually undervalued coming into this game. The betting public has simply forgotten about them. But when you look at those losses, you find that they are not bad at all. They only lost 20-25 at Alabama as 10-point underdogs, and 17-31 at Ole Miss as 2.5-point favorites. They actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 93 yards on the road, so that there shows that they can play with what everyone perceives as the best team in the country. Had either of those games against Alabama and Ole Miss been played in Starkville, they likely would have been different outcomes.

Mississippi State went 5-2 against bowl teams this season. It beat LSU (34-29) and South Alabama (35-3) on the road, while also topping Texas A&M (38-23), Auburn (38-23) and Arkansas (17-10) at home. This was obviously one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country, and I’d have to say that the Bulldogs handled themselves pretty well. They are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game because it seems like the national media has simply forgotten about them.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued. It has gone 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which has the betting public jumping on the bandwagon. It beat Georgia 30-24 on the road in the final week of the regular season. Well, the Bulldogs were deflated coming into that game after falling short of making the SEC Championship Game with Missouri’s win over Arkansas in the season finale. They also only lost 35-37 to Florida State after scoring a touchdown with only seconds remaining to make that score appear closer than it really was.

Mississippi State’s offense was nothing short of elite this season. It put up 37.2 points, 506.2 yards per game and 6.6 per play to rank 9th in the country in total offense. Its opposing defenses only gave up 27.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season. So, it outscored its opposing defenses’ season averages by 10 points per game, and outgained them by 108 yards per game. Georgia Tech’s defense allows 6.2 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 yards per play.

However, the reason I really love this matchup for the Bulldogs is their defense. They struggled against the pass this season, but they were elite against the run. The Bulldogs only allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. They give up 285 passing yards per game, but that’s not going to come into play here because Georgia Tech only averages 135 passing yards per game.

Plus, the Yellow Jackets are expected to be without leading receiver DeAndre Smelter (35 receptions, 715 yards, 7 TD), who accounted for roughly half of their receiving totals on the year. They average 334 rushing yards per game this season in their tripe-option. Well, give the Bulldogs over a month to prepare for it, and their dominant run defense will be up to the task.

Bowl games are a huge disadvantage for triple-option teams. Georgia Tech lost to another SEC team in Ole Miss 17-25 in the Music City Bowl last year. They were held to 298 total yards and gave up 477 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 179 yards in the loss. They only mustered 151 rushing yards on 49 carries for an average of 3.1 per carry against the Rebels last year.

The ACC has not shown very well in bowl games this postseason.  They are 3-5 in bowl games with their only wins coming from VA Tech over Cincinnati, NC State over UCF, and Clemson over Oklahoma.  Both Cincinnati and UCF play in the weak AAC, while Oklahoma did not show up against Clemson.  

What stands out to me is that the ACC is 0-2 against SEC teams as Miami lost to South Carolina 21-24, while Louisville was blown out by Georgia 37-14 last night.  Also, the SEC has been dominant in bowl games this year, going 4-1 up to this points.  This conference is just on another level than the rest, and that will be apparent in this game as well.

Dan Mullen is 11-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average at least 5.25 yards per carry as the coach of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Mississippi State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.

Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games.  This trend just goes to show how much they struggle in bowl games because they run a triple-option, which is so easy to prepare for when you have extra time.  Bet Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl Wednesday.

20* Notre Dame/LSU Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame +7.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into the bowl season way undervalued. That’s because they completely fell apart down the stretch after having their national title hopes crushed in a 27-31 loss at Florida State following their 6-0 start. The referees overturned what would have been a game-winning touchdown for the Fighting Irish in the closing seconds, and this team never really recovered from that moment-on.

They went on to beat Navy in a close one 49-39, but then lost each of their final four games to close out the season. They lost 31-55 at Arizona State, 40-43 to Northwestern, 28-31 to Louisville and 14-49 to USC. Obviously, the betting public sees these results and will be quick to fade the Fighting Irish in the bowl game. That has created a ton of line value for us to back them catching a full touchdown, and more in some places, against LSU.

Without question, Notre Dame (7-5) is still one of the most talented teams in the country. It simply self-destructed down the stretch in committing 12 turnovers in its final four games. The collapse was somewhat predictable after that loss to Florida State. You can bet that veteran quarterback Everett Golson is going to take it upon himself to get this team back up off the mat and to put forth the kind of performance that his talent warrants in the bowl game.

Also, I love Brian Kelly as a head coach for a bowl, because he is one of the best motivators in the country. Kelly will be pulling out all the stops on his players to try and get them ready to put their best foot forward against LSU. This is one final chance for the Irish to erase the sour taste out of their mouths from the four-game losing streak to close out the season. If they don’t, these players know it’s going to be a long offseason.

I certainly have to question the motivation of these LSU players coming into this bowl game. They are used to playing in big-time bowl games year in and year out, and they certainly won’t be all that excited to be playing in the Music City Bowl because of it. This is a team that had won at least 10 games in four consecutive seasons. Their No. 23 ranking is their lowest heading into the bowl season that I can remember since Les Miles took over.

LSU (8-4) did have a propensity of playing in close games against most of its top competition this season. It had six games decided by a touchdown or less this season. Those six include wins over Wisconsin (28-24), Florida (30-27), Ole Miss (10-7) and Texas A&M (23-17), as well as losses to Alabama (13-20) and Mississippi State (29-34).  So, the Tigers went a fortunate 4-2 in games decided by a TD or less.

The reason the Tigers play in so many close games is because they have a solid defense that can keep them in games, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Tigers are putting up just 27.6 points, 383.4 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that allow 26.4 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play. You can tell from these numbers that the Tigers are no more than an average offense.

There’s no question that the Fighting Irish have a huge edge on that side of the ball. They are scoring 33.0 points per game, averaging 444.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 26.0 points, 379 yards and 5.3 per play. Aside from the turnovers, Golson has really had a fine season. He is completing 60.1% of his passes for 3,355 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while also rushing for 280 yards and eight scores.

I’ll gladly back Golson over LSU sophomore Anthony Jennings in this one. The Tigers have struggled at the quarterback position all season, and I would argue that Jennings is a worse starter than Brandon Harris, who had completed 55.6% of his passes for 452 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Jennings is only completing 48.8% of his passes for 1,460 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven picks. He is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt compared to Harris’ 10.0 per attempt. Also, Jennings has rushed for only 284 yards while averaging 2.8 per carry without a touchdown.

Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games when playing against a good team that wins between 60% and 75% of its games. LSU is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Bet Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl Tuesday.

Note - The above is my original analysis. I am writing this note on the morning of December 30th.  I just wanted to let you know that I still recommend Notre Dame +7.5 even though there is news that has come out recently that Golson will split time with Malik Zaire at QB in the bowl game.  I believe Brian Kelly made these plans just to keep things competitive in practice during this long bowl break.  It will be better for the team in the long haul.  It also gives LSU a lot more to prepare for, which is good strategy  by Kelly.  I still expect Golson to play most of this game.

20* WVU/Texas A&M Liberty Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M +3.5

It’s mind-boggling to me that a middle-of-the-pack team from the Big 12 is actually favored over a bowl team from the SEC that played in the toughest conference in the country. As a result, I’ll be taking Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog to West Virginia in the 2014 Liberty Bowl. The Aggies have the edge in talent and schedule strength in this one, and it’s really not even close.

The Aggies played in the toughest division in the entire country in the SEC West. They managed to go a respectable 3-5 within the conference this season, which included wins over three other bowl teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Auburn. Their five losses this year came to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU, and they were competitive in four of those five losses.

I really liked the improvement I saw from the Aggies down the stretch heading into this bowl game. Yes, they went just 1-2 in their last three games, but they had a chance to win all three. They upset Auburn on the road 41-38 as a 23.5-point underdog. They lost to Missouri 27-34 at home, and the Tigers were the SEC East champs again this year. They also gave LSU a run for their money in a 17-23 home loss in the regular season finale.

Kevin Sumlin certainly has proven himself as a head coach in bowl games, going 3-1 in them. He is 2-0 at Texas A&M as well. The Aggies beat then-No. 12 Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl in 2012. Last year, they were disappointed to be playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Duke in a clear letdown spot. They still managed to win that bowl game 52-48.

West Virginia just did not do that well this season in its biggest games. It lost to Alabama, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Kansas State, which were five of the six toughest games it faced this year. It did beat Baylor 41-27 at home, but that game was played in terrible conditions and the Bears just didn’t show up. The Mountaineers’ other six wins came against the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Maryland and Towson.

The Aggies boast another elite offense this season. They are putting up 34.4 points and 449.2 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against opposing defenses that only give up 28 points per game, 397 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kyle Allen has taken over the starting QB duties and has done a fine job despite playing some elite competition down the stretch. He is completling 61.1% of his passes for 1,028 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against Auburn, Missouri and LSU, which is no small feat.

West Virginia comes in playing some of its worst football of the season. It has lost three of its last four which includes home losses to TCU and Kansas State, and an ugly road loss at Texas 16-33. The Mountaineers’ only win in their last four games came against Iowa State in a game that was closer than the final score of 37-24 would indicate. This was a 3-point game with under 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Note that the Cyclones went 0-9 in the the Big 12 this year.

The Mountaineers are also 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 275 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 24.2 points per game. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven following a bye week.    These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl Monday.

15* Penn State/Boston College Pinstripe Bowl Line Mistake on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions may have the worse record this season than the Boston College Eagles, but I believe they are the better team in this one. The Nittany Lions are much better than their 6-6 record would indicate. First-year coach James Franklin will certainly benefit from having all this extra bowl preparation as this young team should come out with their best performance of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl.

I know Penn State went just 2-6 within the Big Ten, but it played one of the toughest schedules in the conference. It also came out on the short end of the stick in so many close games this year. Indeed, four of Penn State’s six losses came by a touchdown or less. It lost on the road to both Michigan (13-18) and Illinois (14-16), while also falling to Maryland (19-20) at home.

However, it was the loss to Ohio State that shows what the Nittany Lions are capable of. They took the Buckeyes to overtime where they eventually lost 24-31 as 14-point underdogs. They held Ohio State to just 293 total yards in the loss, which is no small feat. As you know, the Buckeyes are playing in the four-team playoff as one of the top four teams in the country.

Penn State has played tremendous defense all season, and I like backing the better defensive team in bowl games. It is giving up just 17.7 points and 269.9 yards per game this season to rank 2nd in the entire country in total defense. It has been dominant against both the run and the pass, but its run defense is why it will pull the upset against the Eagles in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Boston College is a power-running team that rushes for 252 yards per game while only throwing for 132 yards per game. Well, not many teams are better equipped to stop the Eagles than the Nittany Lions. Penn State gives up just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry against teams that average 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, the Nittany Lions are holding their opponents to 76 yards per game and 1.7 per carry below their season averages.

The Eagles really have not fared well in bowl games at all here of late, and a lot of that has to do with their offense being so predictable, which is the case again this year. Boston College is 0-4 in its last four bowl games, not once topping 19 points, and averaging 14.8 points per game in the four losses. That includes a 19-42 loss to Arizona last year in which it was outgained by 178 total yards. The Nittany Lions are happy to be here as their last bowl game appearance was in 2011.

I believe the Eagles are getting too much respect from the books here due to their solid finish to the season where they nearly upset Florida State and beat Syracuse 28-7. Conversely, Penn State is not getting any respect due to its poor finish where it lost at Illinois 14-16 and to Michigan State 10-34 at home in its final two games. Well, the Nittany Lions held the Spartans to just 298 total yards, including 118 rushing on 41 carries as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.

The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven December games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Penn State is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on grass. The Nittany Lions are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl Saturday.

20* Miami/South Carolina Independence Bowl BLOWOUT on South Carolina +3.5

Both of these teams had visions of winning their respective conferences coming into the season. Both fell flat on their faces. I don’t believe there is a motivational advantage one way or the other in this game because they both envisioned being in better bowl games coming into the year. So, it comes down to which team is better on the field, and I believe that team is South Carolina.

Yes, the Gamecocks did not live up to expectations. They had won 11 games in three consecutive seasons heading into 2014. While they underachieved on the field, I have no doubt that’s the reason they are undervalued here. They should not be the underdogs in this game given that they are the more talented team and this extra bowl prep could allow their young talent to finally shine through.

South Carolina had to work pretty hard just get make a bowl game as it found itself as an underdog in two of its final three games of the season needing two wins to get in. It became bowl eligible after beating Florida 23-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog, and then South Alabama at home 37-12 as a 24-point favorite.

After clinching bowl eligibility, it did not play well in a season-ending 17-35 loss at Clemson, but the Tigers had a healthy Deshaun Watson at quarterback for that game, and he makes all the difference for them.  Plus, Clemson was motivated to put an end to a 5-game losing streak to South Carolina in the series.  The Gamecocks did not want that game as much as the Tigers, and it was reflected in the final score.

Miami pretty much fell apart at the end of the season and I question its motivation coming in because of it. It lost each of its final three games, and the last two were very concerning. The Hurricanes went into Virginia and lost 13-30 as 4-point favorites, and then lost at home to Pittsburgh 23-35 as 11-point favorites. Their defense is not playing well at all right now, allowing an average of 31.7 points per game in their last three.

There’s no question that South Carolina played the tougher schedule this season since it plays in the stacked SEC. I believe that works in its favor coming into this game getting to play a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that isn’t close to one of the best teams that it has played this season.

The Gamecocks have flourished outside of the SEC this season, going 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to Clemson.  They have beaten three bowl teams this year in ECU, Florida and Georgia as well.  While those three wins are impressive, it's the losses that these teams had really stand out to me.  It’s clear that South Carolina is the better team when you look at the losses.

Four of South Carolina’s six losses came by 7 points or less as it went just 2-4 in games decided by that margin. Five of Miami’s six losses came by 10 points or more. It lost by 18 to Louisville, by 10 to Nebraska, by 11 to Georgia Tech, by 17 to Virginia, and by 12 to Pittsburgh. While the Gamecocks are nowhere near as bad as their 6-6 record suggests, the Hurricanes are every bit as bas as their 6-6 record given these results.

Steve Spurrier has certainly coached up his players the last three years in bowl games. They are 3-0 with wins over then-No. 21 Nebraska, then-No. 19 Michigan and then-No. 19 Wisconsin. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four bowl games. Spurrier believes his players will be ready for Miami, too.

“We have played Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin the last three years. Miami is certainly right in that category with those schools and I think it will certainly get the attention of our players and hopefully we’ll play at our best,” said Spurrier.

Miami is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference game. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall. The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Take South Carolina in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

15* VA Tech/Cincinnati Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +3

While the Virginia Tech Hokies have the worse record in this matchup at 6-6 compared to 9-3 for Cincinnati, I believe they are the better team. The only reason they have a worse record is because they play in a much tougher conference in the ACC. They played the much more difficult schedule this year as well, having to face three bowl teams out of conference.

Those three teams were Ohio State, East Carolina and Western Michigan. The Hokies went 2-1 against those teams which is rather impressive. They beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road to hand the Buckeyes their only loss of the season. They also topped Western Michigan 35-17 at home, while losing a close one to ECU 21-28.

The Hokies fought their way to a bowl bid with four grueling games down the stretch that were all decided by 4 points or less. Ultimately, they beat Duke 17-16 on the road and Virginia 24-20 at home to keep their 22-year bowl streak alive. They earned their way to a bowl game, so you can bet that they are going to be pumped up to be playing in one this year, and to bounce back from an ugly loss to a very good UCLA team in the bowl last season.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to having won seven straight games coming in. The betting public is going to be all over this team because of the way they finished the season, but they did their damage mostly against a soft schedule. Five of their wins came against teams with losing records, while the other two both came at home against ECU and Houston in nail-biters by a combined 15 points.

There are three blowout losses that the Bearcats suffered that I just cannot get out of my head. They lost by 22 at Ohio State, by 27 at home to Memphis, and by 21 at Miami. Only one of Virginia Tech’s six losses this season came by double-digits as five of them came by a touchdown or less. That’s how close the Hokies were to having a much better record this year as they went just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

While Cincinnati does have the better offense in this one, I tend to like to back teams with the better defense in bowl games, and it’s not even close between these teams. Virginia Tech gives up just 20.4 points and 331.7 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total defense. It is holding opponents to 9.4 points and 69 yards per game below their season averages.

Cincinnati has been atrocious on this side of the football. It is giving up 447.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play against opponents that only average 390 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Bearcats rank 104th in the country in total defense. The Hokies will find plenty of success offensively against this soft Cincinnati defense.

Plays on any team (VIRGINIA TECH) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hokies give up just 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Bearcats allow 4.8 per carry.

Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bearcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl Saturday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -2

What the UCF Knights (9-3, 7-1 AAC) have done this year to get back on top of the AAC standings is absolutely amazing. They lost their star quarterback in Blake Bortles, who was the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft this offseason. Many expected them to take a big step back after going 12-1 last year and beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but that just has not been the case.

After opening the season 0-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri, it seemed as though they were taking a big step back. However, they have won nine of 10 games since, which includes a 3-0 record against bowl teams. They beat Houston 17-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs, beat BYU 31-24 as 2.5-point home favorites, and beat East Carolina 32-30 as 6.5-point road underdogs. Wins against those three teams are no small feats. UCF is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall as well. Somehow, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The reason the Knights have had staying power this season is because of their defense. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 282.8 yards per game. They have really stepped up their defensive game of late in allowing 44 total points in their last four games overall, which is an average of 11.0 points per game. That even includes the 30 points they gave up to ECU, which was actually a pretty good showing considering ECU ranks in the top five in the country in total offense this season.

While the defense carried the load all season, the UCF offense actually came around in the second half behind the play of sophomore quarterback Justin Holman. The Knights scored 29 or more points in five of their final six games, including 32 points and 422 total yards in the 32-30 win over ECU in the season finale. Holman is completing 59.0% of his passes for 2,661 yards with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year, while also rushing for a trio of scores.

NC State (7-5, 3-5 ACC) is way too inconsistent of a team to trust in this bowl game. It has played good against poor competition and bad against good competition. Indeed, the Wolfpack are 6-0 against non-bowl teams this season, but just 1-5 against bowl teams with all five losses coming by double-digits. Their only win over a bowl team came in the season finale in their rivalry with UNC. The Tar Heels simply did not show up for that game as they became bowl eligible with an upset win over Duke the week before.

The Wolfpack suffered some very ugly losses to fellow bowl teams. Their five double-digit losses were a 41-56 loss to Florida State, a 41-0 loss to Clemson, a 30-14 loss to Boston College, an 18-30 loss to Louisville, and a 23-56 loss to Georgia Tech. I believe the Knights rank right up there with those five teams that the Wolfpack lost to all by double-digits.

This is also a good matchup for the Knights. The Wolfpack rely heavily on the run, averaging 206 rushing yards per game compared to just 196 passing. Well, the Knights have been suffocating against the run this season. They give up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.

The location of this bowl game gives the Knights a huge home-field advantage as well. It will be played in St. Petersburg, Florida, which is obviously the home state of Central Florida. There’s no question that the Knights will have more fans in attendance than the Wolfpack in this one, which will help keep the team focused and motivated to play well in front of this crowd.

NC State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games off a road win against a conference rival. UCF Is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. The Knights are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

UCF is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Knights are 10-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two years. UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a road win over a conference rival. The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

15* CMU/WKU Bahamas Bowl BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 C-USA) weren’t expected to do much this year with Bobby Petrino leaving for Louisville in the offseason. Well, they certainly exceeded expectations and proved that they were a very competitive team all year, even against some really good competition. I like their chances of covering this small 3.5-point spread in the Bahamas Bowl against the overmatched Central Michigan (7-5, 5-3 MAC).

Four of Western Kentucky’s five losses this season came by 8 points or less. The only exception was a bad loss to Louisiana Tech, which won the C-USA West division in a landslide. What really impressed me about the Hilltoppers were three of their wins against fellow bowl teams. Indeed, they beat Marshall (67-66) as a 23.5-point road underdog, beat Navy (36-27) as a 7.5-point road dog, and beat Bowling Green (59-31) as a 7-point home dog.

The Hilltoppers are playing their best football of the season coming into this bowl game as well. They have won four straight while going 3-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming against UTEP in a 35-27 win as a 9-point home favorite. They also beat Army 52-24 and UTSA 45-7 while going on the road and earning that 1-point win at 12-1 Marshall during this stretch.

Western Kentucky is going to light up the scoreboard in this one, and that’s a given. It is averaging 44.0 points per game while ranking 6th in the country in total offense at 527.8 yards per game. Its opponents are only allowing 30.3 points and 419 yards per game, so it is putting up roughly 14 points and 109 yards per game more than its opponents average giving up on the season.

Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty is the catalyst, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,344 yards with 44 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year.  This is the final game of his college career, so you know he is going to want to win it and will have his team focused.  Running back Leon Allen (1,490 yards, 12 TD, 5.8 per carry) is one of the most underrated backs in the country and gives this offense balance.

Another reason Doughty and company will be motivated is because they lost to Central Michigan 24-21 in their first-ever bowl in 2012.  There are several players who are on this team that played in that game, and they are going to want revenge.

"We do have a decent amount of our players who got an opportunity to play in that bowl game and unfortunately we did not come out on top," head coach Jeff Brohm said. "Our guys are excited about this matchup to play a team that beat us a couple years ago in a bowl game."

I have not been nearly as impressed with Central Michigan this season. Its seven wins have come against the likes of UT-Chattanooga, Purdue, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio with only one of those seven teams (NIU) making a bowl game this year. Four of its five losses have come by double-digits to Kansas (10-24), Syracuse (3-40), Toledo (28-42) and Western Michigan (20-32). It also lost at home to lowly Ball State (29-32) despite being a 9.5-point favorite.

The Chippewas simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hilltoppers in this one. They are averaging just 25.2 points and 380.8 yards per game offensively against defenses that allow an average of 29.6 points and 405 yards per game.

There’s no denying that the Chippewas have been the better team defensively, but I expect the Hilltoppers to get close to their 44-point season average on offense, and the Chippewas won’t be able to score enough to counter it.  You also have to consider that the Hilltoppers have faced the much tougher schedule this year when looking at the numbers.

Central Michigan is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Western Kentucky is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Hilltoppers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Chippewas are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Central Michigan is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS loss.  Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive straight up wins as an FBS member.  Bet Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl Wednesday.

20* NIU/Marshall Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Northern Illinois +10

The Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2, 7-1 MAC) have been blessed to have a great dual-threat quarterback for several years now. As a result, they have made the MAC Championship Game in five consecutive seasons, winning three of them. Both Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch were here for the first four, and now it’s Drew Hare that’s continuing the tradition of superb quarterback play in 2014.

Hare leads a Northern Illinois offense that is putting up 32.2 points and 442.5 yards per game. He is completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,097 yards with a ridiculous 17-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry. The Huskies rush for 253 yards per game and 5.2 per carry as a team.

The Huskies are clearly playing their best football of the season heading into this one. They have won seven straight coming in with three of their last four coming against bowl teams. They beat Toledo 27-24 at home on November 11th, Western Michigan 31-21 on the road on November 28th, and then Bowling Green 51-17 in the MAC Championship on December 5th.

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders, the defense really needs commended for the job that it has done this season, especially here of late. The Huskies are giving up a respectable 23.6 points and 382.9 yards per game this season. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in eight of their 13 games this season. They have given up 24 or fewer in six straight for an average of 19.0 per game to close out the season as well.

Marshall is a team that was way overvalued after a 9-0 start that saw it win almost every game in blowout fashion. Well, that start came against a very soft schedule. Indeed, each of the first eight games the Thundering Herd played were against teams that did not make a bowl game. As the schedule finally got tougher toward the end, it was evident that Marshall wasn’t as good as it was thought to be.

The Thundering Herd have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall as they have been way overvalued in each. They were 18-point favorites at UAB on November 22 and only won 23-18. They were 23.5-point home favorites against Western Kentucky on November 28th and lost 66-67. Then, they were 8.5-point home favorites against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship and only won 26-23.

Now, the Thundering Herd are again overvalued being asked to win by double-digits against a very good Northern Illinois team, which is way too much. The betting public looks at Marshall’s 12-1 record and assumes that it is a great team, when in reality it has simply benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. The last three games show that the Thundering Herd aren’t an elite team, and NIU may be the best team that they have faced yet.

Marshall also had dreams of playing in a New Year's bowl game after its 11-0 start before that crushing loss to Western Kentucky.  Had it gone 13-0, it easily could have played a bowl game after the new year.  While this is still a nice bowl game, there's no question that the Thundering Herd would have been a lot more motivated had they gone 13-0 and gotten into a bigger bowl.  NIU will be the more motivated team in this one as a result.

Marshall fans have taken to social media to voice their displeasure over Marshall's decision to play Northern Illinois instead of a lower-tier, power-conference team in another league-affiliated bowl.  They were disappointed because the Herd have already played three MAC teams and no power-conference teams in their 2013 schedule.

"Any negativity towards that is, to me, an insult to these players, is an insult to this coach, is an insult to me and is an insult to this university," Marshall athletic director Hamrick said. Obviously, this is a distraction that the team must deal with, and I'm sure that several of the players feel the same way that they'd rather play a power-five team than a fourth team from the MAC.

NIU head coach Rod Carey could not sound more enthusiastic about playing in this game.  "You're going to have two conference champions going at it, it's an unbelievable matchup," Carey said. "We have a ton of respect for Marshall and what they have done this year."

Whoever stops the run better will have a great chance to win this game.  Well, Northern Illinois has given up an average of 2.8 per carry and 215 total yards rushing in its last two games.  Marshall, on the other hand, has given up 207.7 per game on the ground in its last three contests.  NIU ranks eighth in the FBS with 3,288 rushing yards on the season.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win by 21 or more points over the last two seasons. Marshall is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a two-game home stand. Northern Illinois is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60-plus penalty yards per game. The Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Bet Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday.

20* Bowling Green/South Alabama Camellia Bowl BAILOUT on South Alabama -2.5

When deciding who to take in a bowl game, you certainly must consider what motivational factors will influence the game. I have no doubt that the South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) will be the more motivated team in this one. They are extremely happy to be here as this will be their first-ever bowl game.

Bowling Green (7-6, 5-3 MAC), meanwhile, got a worse bowl because it lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. If it would have won that game, it would be playing Conference USA Champion Marshall.  It is not nearly as excited to be here playing South Alabama when it could have played the 12-1 Thundering Herd instead.

You also have to consider the proximity of the schools to their bowl destination. Well, South Alabama is going to have a huge home-field advantage in this one considering it is being played in its home state in Montgomery, Alabama. So the Jaguars get check marks in both motivation and home-field advantage. Those two factors are enough to lay the 2.5 points with the Jaguars.

I’m not so sure that they aren’t the better team, too. They come into this game undervalued because they went 1-4 down the stretch after a 5-2 start. Well, a closer look at the five opponents they played tells the story. They played five other bowl eligible teams during this stretch in UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Texas State, South Carolina and Navy. They played three of those teams very tough, beating Texas State 24-20 at home, losing at Lafayette 9-19, and losing to Navy 40-42.

Bowling Green is playing its worst football of the season coming into this game. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. It lost 20-27 at Toledo while getting outgained by 117 yards, it lost 24-41 at home to a bad Ball State team while getting outgained by 31 yards, and lost 17-51 to Northern Illinois while getting outgained by 265 yards. The Falcons just cannot be trusted to bring their best effort after that crushing loss to the Huskies in the MAC Title Game.

South Alabama has not been elite offensively this season, but it has rushed the ball fairly well. It averages 183 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It should find plenty of success moving the football on the ground against a Bowling Green defense that has been pitiful this year.

The Falcons give up 33.9 points and 499.2 yards per game against teams that only average 27.9 points and 415 yards per game. They have been atrocious against the run all season, allowing an average of 207 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. In their last three games, they gave up 325 rushing yards to Toledo, 199 to Ball State, and 334 to Northern Illinois.

There’s no question that the Jaguars have the better defense in this one, and that’s a big reason while I’ll side with them here. The Jaguars are giving up just 25.8 points, 390.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 30.5 points, 432 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Bowling Green only averages 29.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that give up 29.8 points per game and 5.8 per play, so its offense is nothing special.

South Alabama quarterback Brandon Bridge can be a tough matchup for any defense. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound senior is on the radar of many scouts with the prototypical build and athleticism that NFL teams covet. He completed only 51.9 percent of his passes in 10 games but threw 11 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final six.  He'll be looking to put on a show for the scouts in his final game.

The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Bowling Green is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Jaguars.  Take South Alabama in the Camellia Bowl Saturday.

15* Nevada/LA-Lafayette 2014 Bowl Opener on Louisiana-Lafayette +1

For starters, the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns have a huge home-field advantage for this game as it will be played in their home state of Louisiana. In fact, these players and coaches are very familiar with this game as this will be the fourth consecutive time they have played in it. They are a perfect 3-0 in those three games. Obviously, it would be nice for these players to experience a different venue, but they haven’t looked at it that way. They will be fighting for their thousands of fans that show up to watch.

Lafayette (8-4) has really been playing some great football for quite some time now. It has gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games overall. It went on the road and beat Texas State (34-10), LA-Monroe (34-17) and Troy (42-23) during this stretch, while also beating two other bowl teams in Arkansas State (55-40) and South Alabama (19-9) at home.

This is a veteran bunch that returned 17 starters from last year and was the favorite to win the Sun Belt, but Georgia Southern just didn’t lose a conference game all season, and the Rajin' Cajuns never had the chance to face the Eagles to settle it on the field. I just believe all of these senior starters aren’t going to allow this team to have a letdown even though this is the fourth consecutive time they’ll be playing in the New Orleans Bowl.

It starts with senior quarterback Terrance Broadway, who leads an offense that is putting up 30.6 points and 417.9 yards per game this season. Broadway is completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,068 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 646 yards and three scores. The one-two punch of Elijah McGuire (1,165 yards, 14 TD, 7.8/carry) and Alonzo Harris (737 yards, 12 TD, 4.6/carry) is tough to deal with.

I just have not been that impressed with Nevada (7-5, 4-4 MWC) this season. It went just 4-4 in a very weak Mountain West Conference and is not playing that great coming in. It has lost two of its last three games with its only win coming against 2-11 UNLV. It lost at home to Fresno State 20-40, getting outgained by 198 yards against a mediocre Bulldogs squad. It also lost at Air Force 38-45. Its seven wins this season have come against Southern Utah, Washington State, San Jose State, BYU, Hawaii, SDSU and UNLV.

Nevada’s defense is the reason it stands little chance in this game. It is giving up 28.2 points and 450.1 yards per game to rank 105th in the country in total defense. It hasn’t been able to stop the run or the pass. It is giving up 179 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. It is also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7% of their passes for 271 yards per game. Broadway and company will have a field day against this defense.

Nevada is a run-first team that averages 215 rushing yards per game compared to 197 passing yards. That actually makes this a great matchup for the Rajin’ Cajuns because they have been solid against the run, but not very good against the pass. They are allowing just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that average 168 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, they are an above-average defense against the run.

This game is going to come down to which team can stop the run because they both run it so frequently.  The edge obviously goes to the Rajin' Cajuns here as they give up just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, compared to the Wolf Pack, who give up 179 per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that average 167 per game and 4.3 per carry.

The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last three seasons. This trend goes right in line with my thinking. They haven’t been able to take advantage of poor passing defenses in the past, and they won’t in this one, either. Lafayette is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. Nevada is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.

Mark Hudspeth is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 9-1 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 3-0 in bowl games as the coach of the Rajin' Cajuns.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5

I believe the books have set a very good spread in this game.  They know that the betting public is going to be on Navy due to its 12-game winning streak in this series, so they set the spread above two touchdowns to try and slow down the money coming in on the Midshipmen.  While I still believe Navy is probably the right side, I find more value in backing the total in this game.

Army and Navy are very familiar with one another.  They both run the triple-option offense, so neither team is going to be surprised by what they see.  That's why year after year the final combined score usually finishes UNDER the number.  Another reason for this is the fact that both teams have had a ton of time off in between games, which helps them in preparation.  Navy last played on November 28th, while Army last played on November 22nd.

Indeed, this has been a very low-scoring series.  The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between Army and Navy.  They have combined for 41, 30, 48, 48, 20, 34, 41, and 40 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  As you can see, they have not topped 48 combined points in any of those eight meetings.  In fact, they are averaging a combined 37.8 points per game during this stretch, which is roughly 22 points less than this posted total of 59.5.

When two teams run the ball as much as these two do, the clock is going to be moving continuously, which aids the under.  Army averages 56 rush attempts and 9 pass attempts per game, while Navy averages 56 rush attempts and 10 pass attempts per contest.  So, Army runs the ball 86% of the time, while Navy runs the ball 85% of the time.  There will be very few incomplete passes in this game to stop the clock.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Navy is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last three years.  The Midshipmen are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  Navy is 6-0 to the UNDER off a road win over the last three years.  Throw in that the UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, and these five trends combine for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I released this play on Monday knowing that the total in Army/Navy was going to go down from the 59.5-point opener.  I still recommend a bet on the UNDER at anything 55 or above.  Thanks.

15* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -4

The Florida State Seminoles (12-0) certainly created expectations from oddsmakers this season that they could not live up to after winning the BCS Championship last year. Despite going a perfect 12-0 straight up, they have gone a woeful 3-9 against the spread this season. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to fade them because of it. This is one of the lowest spreads we’ve had an opportunity to back Florida State at as a result. That’s why I believe there is value in backing the Seminoles as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship.

Georgia Tech (10-2), meanwhile, comes into this game way overvalued due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. That includes a win against Georgia in overtime last week in a game that I backed the Yellow Jackets as 12-point underdogs. That was a game where the Bulldogs were deflated after Missouri had won on Friday to punch its ticket into the SEC Championship, which prevented Georgia from playing in it. I simply believe the Yellow Jackets caught Georgia at the right time, and now they are getting too much respect from the books after that win.

All the Seminoles do is win. They extended their winning streak to 28 games with their 24-19 victory over Florida last week. I realize that they have six victories by 6 points or less this season, and that’s a big reason why I have faded them with regularity up to this point when they have been a big favorite. However, I have backed them a couple of their small spreads, and they have come through for me with a 42-31 win at Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite, and a 30-26 win at Miami as a 2-point favorite. Basically, all they have to do is win this game and they’ll cover considering this is only a 4-point spread and it likely won't come into play.

What I like about this play as well is that Florida State has played a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch and is more battle-tested. It has faced six straight tough games against Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida. Georgia Tech’s last six games have come against UNC, Pitt, Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Georgia. It also faced Clemson without star QB Deshaun Watson, while FSU had to play Clemson with Watson and without Jameis Winston.

This is a very good matchup for the Seminoles because their strength defensively is stopping the run. They are giving up a respectable 146 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. Georgia Tech is a primary running team in the triple-option. Although it is an improved passing team this season, any threat it had of moving the football through the air ended against Georgia.

That’s because top receiver DeAndre Smelter suffered a knee injury in the loss to Georgia and is doubtful to play Saturday. This is a bigger loss than I believe the oddsmakers are factoring in. Smelter leads the team in receptions (35), receiving yards (715) and receiving touchdowns (7). To compare, second place in all three categories is Darren Waller (16 receptions, 255 yards, 4 TD). That just shows you how important Smelter is to the offense.

This Georgia Tech defense hasn’t exactly been dominant, either. It is giving up 24.1 points, 388.7 yards per game, and 6.1 yards per play. That is rather mediocre when you consider its opponents average 405 yards per game and 5.8 per play against all teams they have faced this year. The Yellow Jackets have simply won the time of possession this year, which has kept their suspect defense off the field for the majority of games.

That won’t happen against this high-powered FSU offense that averages 34.6 points and 430.3 yards per game on the year. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that opposing defenses that they’ve faced only giving up 25.3 points and 357 yards per game. The Seminoles are also averaging 6.3 yards per play against teams that give up only 5.2 yards per play.  This is still an elite offense under Winston.

Florida State is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 37-20 ATS in their last 57 games following two more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 6-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Florida State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 December games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -14.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) are the best team in college football, period. They have been the most impressive team based on the schedule that they have played and the numbers that they have put up this season. Their only loss came at Ole Miss by a final of 17-23 back when the Rebels were healthy and one of the best teams in the country. After beating a tough Auburn team 55-44 last week, this game against Missouri will feel like a cake walk.

Alabama has arguably its best offense in school history. It is putting up 36.7 points and 487.1 yards per game on the season. Blake Sims has had a tremendous year at quarterback, and bounced back nicely from a slow start against Auburn last week to lead them back from a double-digit second half deficit. Sims is completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 2,974 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 275 yards and six scores.

While many consider the Crimson Tide to be down defensively this year, that simply has not been the case. They are giving up just 16.9 points and 312.0 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 29.5 points and 415 yards per game. They are holding their opponents to roughly 13 points and 103 yards per game less than their season averages. That’s the sign of an elite defense, and one that will shut down this suspect Missouri offense.

The Tigers, in my opinion, are the single-most overrated team in the entire country. There is no way they should be 10-2 right now when you consider they are only outgaining teams by an average of 34.4 yards per game.   To compare, Alabama outgains the opposition by 175.1 yards per game.  That's the sign of an elite team and one deserving of being in the SEC Championship.

The Tigers have simply been an opportunistic team that has taken advantage of opponent’s mistakes all year, but their luck runs out this week against the best team they have faced all season.  The second-best team they have played was easily Georgia, and they lost 34-0 to the Bulldogs at home on October 11th.

Missouri simply does not have the firepower offensively to do anything against this Alabama defense, which won’t allow it to keep up on the scoreboard. It ranks just 98th in the country in total offense, averaging 365.9 yards per game on the season. Maty Mauk is just an average quarterback who is completing 53.5 percent of his passes on the season. He will have one of the worst games of his career against this Alabama defense.

I look for this game to play out similarly to the 42-10 beat down the Crimson Tide put on the Tigers in their most recent meeting in 2012. They racked up 533 yards of offense while limiting the Tigers to just 129 total yards in the win. They outgained the Tigers by a whopping 404 total yards for the game. That contest was even played in Missouri, and this one will be in the Georgia Dome, where the Crimson Tide are used to being at season’s end.

The Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games. Last year, Auburn beat Missouri 59-42 in the SEC Championship while outgaining the Tigers 677-534 for the game. This Alabama team is better than that Auburn team of a year ago, while this Missouri team isn’t as good as last year’s Tigers squad.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +21

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight will not play Saturday after missing the past two games with a head injury. He was knocked out of a 14-48 home loss to Baylor on November 8th and hasn’t returned since. The Sooners haven’t needed him in their last two games against Big 12 bottom feeders Texas Tech (42-30 win) and Kansas (44-7 win), but they aren’t about to blow out Oklahoma State without Knight.

Backup Cody Thomas has been terrible in Knight’s place. He went 10-of-20 for 133 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions against Texas Tech, and 3-of-13 for 39 yards without a touchdown or an interception against Kansas. The Sooners were able to get away with being one-dimensional against the Red Raiders and Jayhawks, but that won’t be the case against the Cowboys.  Thomas is completing just 41% of his passes on the season.

Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness this season has been its quarterback play. That’s why head coach Mike Gundy decided to make a switch prior to the Baylor game a couple weeks ago. Mason Rudolph played very well in a hostile atmosphere in Waco, throwing for 281 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the 28-49 road loss as a 33-point underdog. Rudolph will get the start again Saturday, and I believe this offense will continue to perform better with him under center.  If they can stay within 21 points of Baylor on the road, which beat Oklahoma by 34 in Norman, then they can stay within 21 of the Sooners on the road.

This Oklahoma defense has shown plenty of holes all season, especially in conference play. It is giving up 28.2 points and 414.5 yards per game against Big 12 opponents this season. That’s not the sign of an elite team as this defense has been overrated all season. The Sooners were the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, and they have fallen flat on their faces. While the Sooners have nothing to play for at this point except perhaps a better bowl game, the Cowboys need one more win to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma State would consider its season a success if it were to beat Oklahoma to get bowl eligible. The Cowboys have played the Sooners very tough in recent years, and I expect that to continue in 2014. They beat the Sooners 44-10 at home in 2011, and each of their last three losses to the Sooners have come by 9 points or less, and by a combined 18 points total. They want revenge after the Sooners spoiled their bid to win the Big 12 with a 33-24 upset last year.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Oregon -13.5

The Oregon Ducks (11-1) want revenge on the Wildcats after losing their last two meetings. I believe this line would be much bigger had the Ducks won both of them, but since it’s not I feel we are getting a discount on them as less than two-touchdown favorites. They were favored by more than 20 points in their last two meetings with the Wildcats, which is a good indication that we are getting them at a discount here.

Oregon has been on a mission over the last two months since that 24-31 loss to the Wildcats. It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall, winning all seven games by 12 points or more, including five of those by 24 or more. It just cannot be stopped offensively right now as it has scored at least 42 points in all seven of those contests. If it gets to 42 in this game, that will be enough to win by two touchdowns or more.

The Ducks are putting up 45.9 points and 539.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota came back for one more season to win a championship, and he's been the best leader this team could ask for. Mariota is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards with a ridiculous 36-to-2 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 636 yards and 11 scores while averaging a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt this season.

Arizona has a strong offense as well, but the way that its defense has played all year gives it little chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Oregon squad. The Wildcats are allowing an average of 434.7 yards per game to rank 96th in the country in total defense. That’s not the stop unit of a championship-caliber team. The Wildcats have to feel fortunate just to make the Pac-12 Championship.  That is a win for them in itself.

Oregon has put up huge numbers on Arizona in all their recent meetings. It has put up at least 446 yards of total offense in each of the last eight meetings with Arizona, including 500-plus four times. I just believe that the Wildcats can do nothing to slow down this Oregon offense, and the only way the Ducks don’t cover is if they beat themselves like they did in the last two meetings. They aren’t likely to beat themselves a third straight time, especially not with the way they are playing right now.

Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow 275 or more passing yards per game. The Ducks are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. Oregon is 12-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on grass. Arizona is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on grass.  Take Oregon Friday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green +7

If this game was played last week, I have no doubt that this line would be a lot smaller than it is right now. Northern Illinois (10-2) is coming off a huge 31-21 win at Western Michigan as an 8-point underdog, while Bowling Green(7-5)  is coming off a 41-24 home loss to Ball State despite being a 10-point favorite. Before you are quick to judge those results, you must understand the mental make-up of the teams going into them.

Northern Illinois knew that a win would get it in the MAC Championship. Western Michigan knew that a win would not get it in because it had lost to Toledo earlier in the season, so the Rockets held the tiebreaker. Toledo was a 23-point favorite against Eastern Michigan last Friday and rolled to victory. So, the Broncos essentially knew that they would not be playing in the MAC Championship even with a win because Toledo wasn’t going to lose to EMU.

Bowling Green already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship a couple weeks ago. It knew that a loss to Ball State would have no bearing on whether or not it would be playing in the title game for a second straight year, and it simply did not show up last week. Ball State rolled to a 17-point victory that was of no consequence to the Falcons. The betting public is going to be quick to judge those results more than they should.

Now, we are getting the Falcons at a great value as 7-point underdogs in this game. I’m more interested in how this team played when it had something to play for, and a closer look at those results shows that this is a quality team. The Falcons went 5-1 during a six-game stretch from the end of September to early November. Their only loss was to Western Michigan, which is arguably the best team in the MAC. They had three wins by double-digits during that stretch, including a 27-10 win at Akron and a 31-13 win at Ohio.

This Bowling Green defense was really improving prior to the Ball State game, which again, we cannot count. It had allowed less than 400 yards in four consecutive games prior to Ball State. That includes just 388 total yards to a high-powered Toledo offense that averages 486.2 on the season. I really do believe the Falcons have the better defense in this one and are fully capable of slowing down this NIU offense.

Northern Illinois’ biggest weakness is its stop unit. It really hasn’t done a whole lot to stop anyone all season. It is giving up 24.2 points and 390.9 yards per game against teams that have averaged 22.8 points and 364 yards per game. So, it is allowing 1.4 points and 27 yards per game more than opposing offenses average on the season.

The Huskies will have their hands full against a Bowling Green offense that has really been impressive this year. It is putting up 30.8 points and 441.6 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 181 yards on the ground and 261 through the air. NIU averages 30.6 points and 433.3 yards per game, so I’d argue that Bowling Green actually has the better offense because it has played the tougher schedule this year.

In the MAC Championship Game last year, Bowling Green rolled to a 47-27 victory over NIU. It simply did whatever it wanted to against a weak NIU defense, amassing 574 total yards in the win. I know the Huskies will be out for revenge, but that’s not a big enough factor to be too concerned. The Huskies even have a worse defense this year than they did last year, and their offense isn’t nearly as strong with the loss of QB Jordan Lynch.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOWLING GREEN) – in conference games, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1992. Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Bowling Green is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.  Bet Bowling Green Friday.

15* UCF/East Carolina AAC Thursday No-Brainer on UCF +6.5

The UCF Knights (8-3, 6-1 AAC) have a chance to clinch a share of the American Athletic Conference Title with a win Thursday. They sit at 6-1 within the conference, tied with Cincinnati and only one game behind Memphis (7-1). ECU (5-2 AAC) already has its fate sealed as it will not be able to win the conference. That motivational edge certainly favors the Knights and is a big factor as to why I’ll be siding with them Thursday night as 6.5-point road underdogs.

UCF has won eight of its last nine games overall coming into this one with each of its last four wins all combing by 16 points or more. The only exception was a fluke 29-37 loss at Connecticut back on November 1st in a game they dominated, but ultimately lost due to committing four turnovers. They outgained the Huskies by 102 yards in that contest and should have won.

In fact, the Knights have outgained each of their last five opponents by at least 95 yards. They outgained SMU by 374 yards in a 53-7 win, outgained Tulsa by 305 yards in a 31-7 win, and outgained Temple by 284 yards in a 34-14 win in their three most impressive performances during this stretch. They also outgained South Florida by 95 yards last week in a 16-0 road victory.

If you’re a fan of defense like I am, then you’ll love what you’ve seen from this UCF stop unit this season. The Knights are giving up just 16.8 points and 271.2 yards per game on the season, ranking 4th in the country in total defense. That includes 15.0 points and 258.9 yards per game in conference play. In their last three games, the Knights have allowed a measly 4.7 points and 172.3 yards per game. They have what it takes on this side of the ball to slow down this high-powered ECU offense.

ECU isn’t nearly as dominant defensively as UCF. It is giving up an average of 25.1 points and 364.9 yards per game on the season against teams who only average 21.9 points and 343 yards per game. It has allowed 30.7 points and 433.0 yards per game in its last three coming in. That includes 54 points and 586 yards to Cincinnati, and 32 points and 388 total yards to Tulsa.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) – off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992. ECU is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  ECU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. The Pirates are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. ECU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.

UCF is 9-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the last two seasons. The Knights are 6-0 ATS in Thursday games over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Thursday.

20* Utah State/Boise State Mountain West BAILOUT on Utah State +10

The Utah State Aggies and Boise State Broncos will be playing for the right to go to the Mountain West Championship Game today.  The only reason that is possible is because Colorado State lost to Air Force yesterday, giving the Aggies hope.

Had the Rams won that game against Air Force, they would have had the tiebreaker over Utah State, and then the Aggies would have had nothing to play for but pride today.  I believe that win by the Falcons will be huge for Utah State's mental state heading into this one as they'll be charged up knowing they have a chance to get back to the MWC Title Game for a second straight year.

Utah State hasn't lost since that 13-16 road loss to Colorado State.  It has gone 5-0 since with all five victories coming by seven points or more, including four by 14 points or more.  I just really like the way that this team has been playing and the fact that it has one of the most underrated defenses in the country.

Indeed, the Aggies rank 1st in the Mountain West in scoring and total defense, giving up just 18.3 points and 351.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.9 points and 349.7 yards per game in conference play.  I will take good defense over good offense any day as Boise State ranks 1st in the conference in total offense.

However, it's not like the Aggies have been lacking on offense, either.  They are putting up 28.1 points per game on the season and 29.3 points per game in conference play.  This offense has been much sharper since stud freshman Kent Myers took over as the starting quarterback. 

He is completing a ridiculous 73.4 percent of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.1 yards per attempt.  Myers has also been their best dual-threat quarterback this season as he has added 192 rushing yards and three scores while averaging 6.2 per carry.  Most teams couldn't perform well when they were down to their fourth-string QB, but Myers has really been a diamond in the rough for the Aggies.

While Boise State has been great offensively this season, it has been horrible on the other side of the football.  It is giving up 28.4 points per game on the season, including a ridiculous 31.0 points per game in conference play.  That's really bad when you consider the Mountain West just isn't that good.

Utah State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game.  The Aggies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Utah State is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aggies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Boise State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS int he last seven meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Auburn/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -9

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) have been waiting for this game since last year. They want revenge on the Tigers from that crushing 34-28 defeat that sent Auburn to the SEC Championship. Now, a spot in the title game is at stake for the Crimson Tide this week, while the Tigers have no shot of playing in it. So, from a motivational perspective, there’s no question that the Crimson Tide have the edge heading into this one.

More importantly, Alabama is the better team. In fact, I believe it is the most complete team in the country. This is easily one of the best offenses in school history. The Crimson Tide are averaging 35.0 points and 482.4 yards per game against teams that give up 25.4 points and 393 yards per game. Defensively, the Crimson Tide have been dominant again this year. They are allowing just 14.5 points and 283.1 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 411 yards per game.

Auburn once again has an explosive offense that puts up 35.1 points and 476.8 yards per game. However, this is a terrible matchup for them because they rely primarily on the run to move the football. Alabama only gives up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Alabama’s ability to stop the run will be the difference in this one.

While the Tigers have a decent defense, it is nowhere near up to the caliber of Alabama’s stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 23.5 points and 375.6 yards per game on the season. They have given up at least 31 points five times this year.  They allowed 41 points to Texas A&M, 38 to Mississippi State, 35 to South Carolina, 34 to Georgia and 31 to Ole Miss. They lost three of those five games. Alabama is sure to hang a big number on this vulnerable Auburn defense as well.

Sure, Auburn has won two of the last six meetings in this series, but they shouldn’t have won either of those as they needed some late-game heroics to do so. Alabama outgained Auburn by 102 yards last year, by 320 yards in 2012, by 257 yards in 2011, by 119 yards in 2010, was outgained by 41 yards in 2009, and outgained the Tigers by 242 yards in 2008. As you can see, this really has been a one-sided series over the past six years when you take a closer look at the box scores.

Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games off two home no-covers where it won straight up as a favorite. That’s another reason why this line is smaller than it should be because the Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread in their last two games. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Alabama is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 33.3 points per game.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* Florida/Florida State Rivalry Play on Florida +7.5

The Florida State Seminoles (11-0) have been overvalued all season after winning the BCS Championship last year. They created expectations for themselves that they simply could not live up to, especially from the betting public and the oddsmakers. Despite going 11-0 to this point, they have gone a woeful 3-8 against the spread. They have won five games this season by six points or less and are extremely fortunate to remain undefeated.

Asking the Seminoles to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread against rival Florida is asking too much. They have beaten worse teams by less. Their five wins by six points or less have come against Oklahoma State (37-31), Clemson (23-17), Notre Dame (31-27), Miami (30-26) and Boston College (20-17).

They also failed to cover as a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel (37-12), as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State (56-41), as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse (38-20), and as a 21-point favorite against Virginia (34-20). As you can see, several teams that aren’t as good as Florida have played the Seminoles very tough this season.

Yes, the Gators have lost four games this season, but those four losses have come against the likes of Alabama, LSU, Missouri and South Carolina. They were only blown out twice as the 21-42 loss at Alabama was a legitimate blowout, but the 13-42 loss to Missouri wasn’t. They actually held the Tigers to just 119 total yards but committed six turnovers and gave up several non-offensive touchdowns in a fluke blowout. Their losses to LSU (27-30) and South Carolina (20-23) came by three points each.

Florida has been a completely different team since inserting Treon Harris as the starting quarterback. He returned as a starter against Georgia and led Florida to a 38-20 road victory. They also beat Vanderbilt 34-10 on the road, lost to South Carolina in overtime, and beat Eastern Kentucky 52-3.

Harris has thrown six touchdowns against one interception while averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 250 yards and three scores in limited action.  To compare, Jeff Driskel only averaged 5.6 yards per attempt before being replaced to Harris.  Both the passing game and the running game have gotten a boost with Harris under center.  The Gators have rushed for 214-plus yards in three of their last four games and will use Boston College's blueprint from last week to run the ball and control the time of possession.

While Harris certainly has given the offense a huge boost, the biggest reason the Gators have a chance to not only cover but win this game outright is their defense. Will Muschamp has an elite stop unit that is giving up just 20.9 points and 308.8 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Florida State has been more vulnerable on that side of the ball, allowing 379.2 yards per game to rank 55th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team has won each of the last three meetings while going 3-0 ATS. Florida won its last trip to Tallahassee by a final of 37-26 as a 7-point underdog in 2012. It has actually gone 4-1 straight up in its last five road games against Florida State. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They are 3-1 straight up on the road this season with their only loss coming at Alabama.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +14

This is Senior Night for Penn State, and I look for it to put forth one of its best performances of the season today at home against Michigan State.  Asking the Spartans to win by more than two touchdowns to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

While Penn State is just 6-5 this season, I would argue that this team is better than its record would indicate.  It has simply been unfortunate in close games.  Indeed, four of its five losses have come by 7 points or less, and by a combined 15 points..

The one close loss that really stands out that shows the Nittany Lions can play with the Buckeyes is the 24-31 home loss to Ohio State.  They lost that game in overtime and held the Buckeyes to just 293 total yards.  That's the same Ohio State team that went into Michigan State and won 49-37 as the Spartans allowed 568 total yards in the loss.

What gives Penn State a chance to hang around in this game is its superb defense.  It is only giving up 16.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 267.2 yards per game.  It has allowed 20 or fewer points in eight of its 11 games this season, and if it does that against Michigan State, it will have no problem covering this spread.

Penn State has played Michigan State very tough in recent years.  Indeed, it is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Spartans.  Its two losses during this stretch came by 6 and 4 points, so you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time that the Nittany Lions lost to the Spartans by more than this spread of 14 points.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following one or more consecutive unders.  It is winning by 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games following a road loss.  Penn State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.  The Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Penn State.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl Beat Down on Mississippi State -2.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) need one more win to likely get them into the college football playoff. I believe they get that victory Saturday in the Egg Bowl against the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3). Getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly a gift from the oddsmakers in this one. These teams are headed in opposite directions right now.

Mississippi State has arguably been the best team in the SEC all season. Its only loss came on the road by a final of 20-25 at Alabama as a 10-point underdog. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings, so going into Tuscaloosa and only losing by five points shows that the Bulldogs can play with anyone. They have also beaten the likes of Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU among others within the SEC.

This is really more of a fade against Ole Miss than anything. The Rebels have had their dreams of winning the SEC crushed in recent weeks with three losses in their last four games. They fell 7-10 at LSU, 31-35 at home against Auburn, and then appeared to quit in a 0-30 loss at Arkansas last week. I know this is a rivalry game, but I really do not like the mental state of the Rebels at all heading into this game. They just don’t have nearly as much to play for as the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss’ downfall coincided with the loss of its two best players on both sides of the ball. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche suffered a broken ankle in late October and is out for the season. Wide receiver Laquan Treadwell suffered a broken leg in the closing seconds against Auburn and is also out for the rest of the year. Nkemdiche was their enforcer at middle linebacker, while Treadweall was their top playmaker on offense at receiver.

Both teams feature solid defenses as the Bulldogs are giving up 18.4 points per game while the Rebels are allowing 13.5 per game. The difference in this game is going to be Mississippi State’s offense, which has been unstoppable in averaging 39.0 points and 511.7 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 248 yards on the ground and 264 through the air. Ole Miss only averages 435.5 yards per game and has been much less explosive here of late. It is averaging just 12.7 points per game in its last three SEC games, and was shut out in its first SEC game without Treadwell against Arkansas.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) – off one or more consecutive unders, good offensive team – scoring 31 or more points/game are 72-28 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Ole Miss is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 November games.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Georgia Tech/Georgia Rivalry Play on Georgia Tech +12

The Georgia Bulldogs are deflated right now.  They needed Missouri to lose to Arkansas yesterday to earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game.  The Tigers came from behind and won, meaning they will be going to the SEC Championship for a second straight year, while the Bulldogs will be watching from home.

While this game against Georgia Tech was going to have no bearing on Georgia's SEC Championship hopes, it's certainly worth noting that the Bulldogs won't be in a good state of mind because of yesterday's result by Missouri.

Georgia Tech (9-2), meanwhile, is in a great state of mind knowing that it will be playing Florida State in the ACC Championship next week.  It also wants revenge from a tough 34-41 (OT) loss to Georgia last year.  It blew a 20-7 halftime lead in that game and will certainly be licking its chops at a chance at revenge.

The Yellow Jackets also come into this game as the fresher team.  They are coming off their bye week after dismantling Clemson 28-6 back on November 15th.  They have been playing some tremendous football of late that will give them the confidence they need to try and pull off the upset in this one.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with all four wins coming by 22 or more points.  They won at Pitt 56-28 as a 4-point underdog, beat Virginia 35-10 as a 4-point home favorite, beat NC State 56-23 as a 3-point road favorite, and topped Clemson 28-6 as a 2-point home dog.  It's also worth noting that both of Georgia Tech's losses this year came by 6 points or less.

I would argue that this is the best team that Paul Johnson has had at Georgia Tech, and that's saying a lot considering this team has won the ACC Championship in his time here.  The biggest reason for that is the play of quarterback Justin Thomas.

Thomas leads an offense that puts up 37.8 points and 469.6 yards per game this season.  He leads the team in rushing (827 yards, 5 TD, 5.4/carry), but the difference has been his passing.  He has thrown for 1,396 yards and 15 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

This Georgia Tech defense has really stepped up its play this year as well, allowing a respectable 24.1 points per game on the year.  They have held their last three opponents to an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Yellow Jackets allowed just 6 points and 190 total yards to Clemson last time out.

Georgia has been extremely vulnerable against the run here of late, allowing an average of 243.0 yards per game in their last four games.  They gave up a whopping 418 yards to Florida in a 20-38 loss.  This Georgia Tech triple-option attack should have plenty of success, just as it did last year when it racked up 34 points and 495 total yards against Georgia.

Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of greater than 75%.  The Bulldogs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Georgia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13

I just love Kentucky's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It sits at 5-6 on the season, so it will be motivated for a win to get to its first bowl game since 2010.  It also comes in on two weeks' rest after playing its last game on November 15th against Tennessee.

I hate Louisville's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It is coming off a taxing 31-28 win at Notre Dame last week that took a lot out of the Cardinals emotionally.  That makes this a huge letdown spot for them off such a big win in South Bend.

Kentucky absolutely cannot wait to get away from the tough SEC slate they've been up against during their current five-game losing streak.  Their last five games have come against LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee with three of those on the road.  This bye week could not have come at a better time after that gauntlet.

This is the best Kentucky team that we've seen in years.  A big reason for that is the play of former Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles at quarterback.  He leads a Kentucky offense that is putting up 28.2 points per game this season.  Towles is completing 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,542 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 293 yards and six scores.

The Wildcats also will be motivated for revenge following three consecutive losses to the Cardinals in this series.  They have only lost to Louisville by more than 13 points twice in their last seven meetings, and even those were competitive as they lost by 14 points last year and by 18 in 2012.  This is easily the best Kentucky team that Louisville has faced since at least 2010.  The road team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

"We've got a lot to play for," Wildcats coach Mark Stoops said. "Guys are excited and energized. It's been a good, tough stretch against some quality teams."

"I think a win this weekend would do an awful lot for these players," Stoops said. "I think they deserve it. They put in the work. They've put in the time, they care and they deserve to win and have that taste of success and that taste of a bowl game."

Plays on a road team (KENTUCKY) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 0-6 ATS after outrushing its last opponents by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa PK

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers both blew their chances at getting to the Big Ten Championship Game with losses last week.  Now, they both look to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing losses and to finish the regular season with one final victory.

I like Iowa's chances of getting up off the mat a lot more because its loss wasn't as crushing because it was expected to lose, while Nebraska was expected to win.  Nebraska lost at home to Minnesota 24-28 as an 8.5-point favorite, while Iowa lost at home to Wisconsin 24-26 as an 8.5-point underdog.

The Cornhuskers were coming off a 24-59 loss at Wisconsin the previous week, and I don't believe they will care a whole lot about winning this final game of the season.  Iowa has showed some fight and I like it's mental state much better, especially considering this is Senior Day at Kinnick Stadium.  That will be motivation enough to get back up off the mat.

Iowa has played very well at home in Big Ten play.  It has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS at home within the conference with blowout wins over Indiana (45-29) and Northwestern (48-7) as well as that 2-point loss to Wisconsin (24-26).

I really like what I've seen from this Iowa offense that last two weeks to compliment a very good defense.  The Hawkeyes put up 587 total yards in their 30-14 win at Illinois two weeks ago, limiting the Illini to just 235 total yards in the process.  They also racked up 412 total yards against a very good Wisconsin defense last week.

Nebraska only managed 180 total yards in its 24-59 loss to Wisconsin.  It gave up 581 rushing yards in that game, and then followed it up by giving up 281 rushing yards to Minnesota last week.  Iowa is a team that loves to run the football as it has rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of its 11 games this season.  The Hawkeyes should have a big day on the ground and get continued solid play from QB Jake Rudock.

Iowa went into Nebraska last year and beat the Huskers 38-17.  The Huskers were in a similar position in that game as they knew they would not be going to the Big Ten Championship.  That is the case again this season, and I don't expect the Huskers to put up much of a fight at all.  They are also battling a ton of key injuries right now that will hamper their chances.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game.  The Hawkeyes are 25-4 ATS in their last 29 versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Iowa is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 vs. great offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* WKU/Marshall Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky +24

I faded Marshall with success last week as they only beat UAB 23-18 on the road as an 18-point favorite.  I will be fading them for many of the same reasons as last week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 11-0 straight up and 7-3 ATS records on the season.

The betting public has been quick to back Marshall because they have covered so many big spreads this year.  But, they have played such a soft schedule up to this point that it's almost a joke.  Their last game against UAB was the toughest opponent that they have played up to this point, and they barely won.

The other 10 wins have come against Miami (Ohio), Rhode Island, Ohio, Akron, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, FIU, FAU, Southern Miss and Rice.  If that's not a cupcake schedule, I don't know what is.  Now, like UAB, they play another opponent capable of putting up a fight this week.

Western Kentucky (6-5) comes in playing its best football of the season.  It is 3-0 in its last three games overall.  It beat UTEP 35-27 to start the streak, dominated Army 52-24 while outgaining the Black Knights by 228 yards, and dominated UTSA 45-7 while outgaining the Roadrunners by 232 yards.

The thing you have to like about the Hilltoppers is that they can score with anyone, so they are capable of keeping up with the Thundering Herd.  They average a whopping 41.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the country in total offense at 508.1 yards per game.  Marshall averages 44.9 points per game to compare.

Plus, you have to consider that the Hilltoppers have played the tougher schedule.  Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty has been brilliant, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,853 yards with 36 touchdowns and only eight interceptions this year.  He would love nothing more than to knock off Marshall in the final regular season game of his career.

However, the Hilltoppers are no one-trick pony.  They have proven fully capable of moving the ball on the ground behind the outstanding play of running back Leon Allen, who has rushed for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Anthony Wales (423 yards, 4 TD, 6.2/carry) has been a nice compliment to him.

Western Kentucky is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Hilltoppers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Western Kentucky Friday.

20* NIU/WMU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +7.5

There are three teams tied atop the MAC West standings with 6-1 records with a chance to play in the MAC Championship against Bowling Green next week.  Two of them square off today in Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, while the other is Toledo.

It's almost a given that Northern Illinois or Toledo will advance.  That's because Toledo plays cupcake Eastern Michigan today and is listed as a 23-point favorite.  It will surely win that game.  Toledo would make it with a Western Michigan win against Northern Illinois.

The only way that Western Michigan will be going to the championship game is if it wins today and Toledo loses, so that is almost out of the question.  The players know that a Toledo loss is unlikely, so they have that in the back of their heads and probably feel defeated right now.

Northern Illinois, meanwhile, gets into the MAC Championship with a win.  It has a head-to-head win over Toledo so it would own the tiebreaker, while WMU lost to Toledo and would lose that tiebreaker.  So, from a motivational perspective, you do not want your money on Western Michigan, but you want it on NIU given the situation.

Western Michigan is way overvalued in this game given the circumstances.  But the biggest reason it is overvalued is the fact that it has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games.  The betting public has taken notice and has jumped on them, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

NIU is a perennial MAC Championship Contender that has been to the title game in four consecutive seasons, winning two of them.  So, they are used to being in this spot, but it wasn't a given this year.  This team has come out and earned it by going 9-2 this season despite many picking them to finish outside of 1st place.

What has been most impressive about NIU is its ability to overcome the losses of stud quarterbacks in recent years.  It is still putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game this season, including 251 rushing and 5.0 per carry. 

Quarterback Drew Hare has been an absolute stud, completing 61.3% of his passes for 1,720 yards with 14 touchdowns and only one interception, while also rushing for 754 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.2 per carry.

Western Michigan has played one of the softest schedules you can imagine, which is the biggest reason for its 8-3 record.  It has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Purdue (34-43), Virginia Tech (17-35) and Toledo (19-20).  I would argue that NIU is the best team that it has faced up to this point.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.  It is coming back to win these games by an average of 21.8 points per game.  Another thing you have to like about the Huskies is that they last played on November 18th, while WMU last played on November 22nd.  That's an extra four days of rest for the Huskies compared to the Broncos.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

20* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on LSU -3

While it has certainly been a down season by LSU (7-4) standards, I have seen enough from this team to know that it is worthy of being more than a 3-point favorite at Texas A&M Thursday night. Its four losses have come to the likes of Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Three of those teams are ranked in the top 15, while the other (Arkansas) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

LSU even played both Mississippi State and Alabama very tough. It only lost 29-34 at home to Mississippi State, which is currently ranked No. 4 in the country. No. 1 Alabama needed overtime to beat LSU 20-13. If they can play with those two teams, the Tigers can certainly go into College Station and come away with a victory this week.

Simply put, this is a down year for Texas A&M (7-4). The Aggies are 3-4 in SEC play and have been thoroughly outplayed in each of their last four games despite going 2-2. They lost 59-0 at Alabama and were outgained by 430 yards in that contest. They barely beat Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Monroe 21-16 at home and should have lost that game as they were outgained by 104 yards. They did upset Auburn 41-38, but were outgained by 129 yards and never should have won.

The Aggies were also outgained by Missouri by 246 yards in their 27-34 home loss last time out. So, when you add up the yardage totals for their last four games, you find that the Aggies have actually been outgained by an average of 227.3 yards per game. That is the sign of a really bad team, and one that doesn’t belong on the same field as LSU Thursday night.

The difference in this game is going to be LSU’s running game against Texas A&M’s weak run defense. LSU averages 205 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, while Texas A&M gives up 210 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Tigers are going to be able to run at will on this soft Aggies’ defense. Texas A&M gave up 363 rushing yards to Auburn, 335 to Missouri, 298 to Alabama, 289 to Mississippi State, 285 to Arkansas, and 240 to Rice.  More of the same can be expected against the Tigers.

LSU has owned Texas A&M each of the last three seasons. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Aggies, winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. The Aggies were much stronger the last two years than they are this season. LSU beat Texas A&M 34-10 at home last year while outgaining the Aggies 517-299 for the game, or by 218 total yards. They rushed for 324 yards in the win.

Plays on road favorites (LSU) – after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 31-4 (88.6%) ATS since 1992. Texas A&M is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 points per game or more. The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in their last game.  The Aggies are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.

Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in its previous game. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a bye week. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system going against Texas A&M.  Bet LSU Thursday.