Sports Picks & Predictions

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -6.5

No team has improved more from Game 1 to Game 7 in college football than Florida Atlantic.  It's easy to see why considering Lane Kiffin was in his first season and had a ton of stud recruits to get acclimated to the new schemes.  But now that the Owls have grasped on to those schemes, boy are they are dangerous team right now.

FAU opened 1-3 with a 19-42 loss to Navy in their opener.  They other two losses came on the road to Wisconsin and Buffalo.  But then the Owls hit conference play, and they have not only won, they have dominated the opposition in three Conference USA games.  I believe they should be among the favorites to win the conference now.

It started with a 38-20 win over Middle Tennessee as 2-point home favorites.  Then they went on the road and crushed Old Dominion 58-28 as 5.5-point favorites.  They then had a bye week before dismantling a good North Texas team 69-31 as 3.5-point home favorites last week.  The Owls have covered the spread by a combined 75 points in their last three games, or by an average of 25 points or game.

While FAU is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now, Western Kentucky is one of the most overrated.  The Hilltoppers were the kings of the conference under Jeff Brohm the last few years, but after losing him, they have simply looked lost this season.  They are 5-2 but just 1-5-1 ATS.  And their schedule couldn't have been any easier up to this point.

WKU beat FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 31-17 as 35-point favorites in the opener.  Their 7-20 loss at Illinois as 6-point favorites looks really poor right now.  They lost 22-23 at home to LA Tech as 4-point favorites.  They only beat Ball State 33-21 at home, and that's a 2-6 Ball State team that is coming off four straight losses in MAC play since by 52, 28, 49 and 41 points.

WKU then went on the road and beat a UTEP team that is currently 0-7 by a final of 15-14 as 16-point favorites.  The only game the Hilltoppers covered came the next week with a 45-14 home win over CHarlotte as 17.5-point favorites.  Well, Charlotte is 1-7 this season.  Then last week WKU only beat Old Dominion 35-31 on the road as 6.5-point favorites.

Old Dominion gives us a recent common opponent to work with here to predict how this game will play out.  Both teams played ODU on the road within the last few weeks.  FAU beat ODU 58-28, while WKU only beat ODU 35-31.  That fact alone shows who the better team is right now, and it's not really even close.

The key matchup advantage here will be FAU's elite rushing attack up against WKU's soft run defense.  The Owls have rushed for a whopping 370.6 yards per game in their last five games.  They racked up 804 total yards against North Texas last week with 357 through the air, so they are far from one-dimensional too.

Western Kentucky allowed 248 rushing yards to Charlotte and 268 to Old Dominion in its last two games.  Teams that normally average just 3.8 yards per carry on the season are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against Western Kentucky this year.  Now the Hilltoppers face their stiffest test yet against the run as the Owls average 6.2 yards per carry.

Unlike FAU's offense, WKU's offense has been one-dimensional.  The Hilltoppers average just 82 rushing yards per game and 2.5 per carry against teams that normally give up 188 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Their offense has been limited to just 26.9 points per game against teams that normally give up 32.2 points per game.  They no longer have the high-octane offense of year's past under Brohm.

Plays against a home team (W KENTUCKY) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in three straight games are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  That's the great part about backing FAU here.  Once the Owls take the lead, they'll keep adding to it because the Hilltoppers cannot stop the run.  And they only need to win by a touchdown to cover this 6.5-point spread.  That won't be a problem.  Take Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* Oklahoma State/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +7.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in college football.  They have gone 15-2 at home in Morgantown over the last three seasons.  Their two losses came to Oklahoma last year and Oklahoma State in overtime the year before.  That was an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.

West Virginia is 5-2 this season, but when you look at the two losses, they could easily be 7-0 and getting more respect from oddsmakers.  They lost 24-31 at Virginia Tech despite outgaining the Hokies by 123 yards and racking up 592 total yards of offense.  They also lost 24-31 at unbeaten TCU despite outgaining the Horned Frogs by 102 yards and racking up 508 total yards against their salty defense.

I think the Mountaineers are also getting overlooked here because of their narrow 38-36 win at Baylor last week.  But that was a misleading final as well.  WVU actually led that game 38-13 in the fourth quarter and simply packed it in.  It's easy to see how they were probably looking ahead to this game against Oklahoma State and simply took their foot off the gas too early.  But that close final is getting us some extra line value here.

Oklahoma State should have lost to Texas last week, settling for a field goal in overtime and then coming up with a huge interception on an awful pass by the Texas QB to win 13-10.  A closer look into that game shows why the Cowboys were shut down offensively.  They suffered cluster injuries on their offensive line as their starting center and starting guard will be out for this game against WVU.

The Cowboys' Mason Rudolph gets all the headlines, but it's WVU's Will Grier who leads the nation in touchdown passes with 26 while throwing only five interceptions.  I think he'll take this matchup personally and will have the Mountaineers hitting on all cylinders tonight.  And WVU will also want revenge after losing back-to-back games to the Cowboys, including that OT loss at home two years ago.  Their 20-37 road loss last year was misleading because the Mountaineers actually outgianed the Cowboys 421 to 358, but they committed three turnovers which was the difference.

Another key handicap for this game is the fact that this is a lookahead spot for Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys will host the rival Oklahoma Sooners next week, and don't be surprised if they are overlooking the Mountaineers and on to that huge showdown that could decide the Big 12.  WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Oklahoma State is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

20* Tulsa/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -8.5

The SMU Mustangs haven't been to a bowl game since 2012.  Chad Morris is in his third season at SMU and this is by far his best team yet.  I rode the Mustangs early in the season because I loved this team coming into the year.  And I'm back on them again Friday because of the situation.

The Mustangs beat Cincinnati 31-28 on the road last week to improve to 5-2 on the season.  Now they can taste that bowl game, and they'll be super pumped to get it done here and improve to 6-2 to get bowl eligible with a win over Tulsa Friday night.

SMU opened the season by going a perfect 5-0 ATS in its first five games.  But then it has just slightly been overvalued in its past two games, losing 22-35 in Houston as 10-point dogs, and barely failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites in that 31-28 win at Cincinnati.  But that was a misleading final against Houston as they outgained the Cougars by 81 yards in that contest.  And off two straight narrow non-covers, SMU is back to being undervalued here as only 8.5-point favorites.

Tulsa is in a tough situation mentally.  This was always going to be a rebuilding season with all they lost in the offseason, but they didn't think it would be this bad.  The Golden Hurricane are 2-6 on the season and will not be going to a bowl game because they still have road games at SMU and South Florida, and a home game at Memphis left on the schedule.  So they are simply playing for pride from here on out.

Tulsa's last chance at making a run at a bowl game was last week, but they promptly lost 14-20 at Connecticut as 4-point favorites.  And that's a terrible UConn team that lost 70-31 to Memphis recently at home.  The Golden Hurricane are running on fumes right now because they still haven't had a bye week, so they will be playing for a ninth straight week, and on a short week here with this Friday game nonetheless.

Meanwhile, SMU had a bye two weeks ago before that Cincinnati game.  That gave the Mustangs a chance to recharge their batteries and make a run here down the stretch at not only a bowl bid, but possibly a conference title if things break their way.  And they are going to want revenge after a 40-43 overtime loss in Tulsa as 15.5-point underdogs last season, only adding to their motivation here.

Tulsa's defense has been atrocious.  The Golden Hurricane are allowing 37.6 points per game, 288 rushing yards per game, 10.7 yards per pass attempt, 546 total yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  SMU can basically name its score here behind an offense that is putting up 42.0 points, 497 yards per game and 6.4 per play.  The Mustangs average 313 passing yards per game and 8.2 per attempt as well.

Offensively, Tulsa is a one-dimensional running team that averages 262 rushing yards per game compared to only 183 passing yards per game.  That actually makes this a decent matchup for the Mustangs, whose weakness has been against the pass.  But the Mustangs allow a respectable 150 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry this season.

And the final case for backing SMU here is how well they've played at home.  They beat a good North Texas team 54-32, crushed the Sun Belt favorite Arkansas State 44-21, and beat that same UConn team 49-28 that Tulsa just lost to.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home, scoring 51.2 points per game and giving up just 23.7 points per game.  They have won all four home games by 21 points or more.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULSA) - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Tulsa is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Mustangs have only committed six turnovers in seven games this year, which is another thing I love about them.  Bet SMU Friday.

20* Stanford/Oregon State Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +21

The Oregon State Beavers played their best game of the season in their first game since Gary Andersen stepped down.  Interim coach Cory Hall took over, and the Beavers only lost 36-33 to Colorado as 9.5-point dogs last Saturday.

The Beavers really should have won that game.  They racked up 569 total yards and actually outgained Colorado by 184 yards in that contest.  Star running back Ryan Nall returned from injury and rushed for 172 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado, both season highs.

"We're playing good ball right now. We've just got to fine tune some things right now," Nall said following the game.

Stanford's run defense, typically a strength, is struggling this season. The Cardinal rank No. 98 nationally with 195.4 yards per game allowed.  So look for Nall to find plenty of success running the football, especially since he's fresh now after getting a bye last week to further recover from his previous injury that hampered him early in the season.

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' type of game.  The Beavers are 1-6, and they opened the season going 0-5 ATS.  But they have been undervalued in their last two games and have covered inflated numbers against both USC and Colorado, and now this is another inflated number because Stanford is has won four straight and is coming off a 49-7 beat down of Oregon.

But Stanford has not played well at all on the road.  In its three true road games, it is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS.  It lost 24-42 at USC as 3.5-point dogs, lost 17-20 at San Diego State as 8-point favorites, and only beat Utah 23-20 as closing 3-point favorites, though that line was hovering up around 7 most of the week.

Oregon State has played Stanford very tough in recent years.  They have only lost once by more than 18 points in the last five meetings.  They only lost 15-26 as 16.5-point road dogs last year, and 24-42 as 14-point home dogs in 2015.  And those were worse Oregon State teams than this 2017 version as this should have been Andersen's best team yet.  But he didn't get the most out of his players this year, and so far the switch to Hall as interim coach has brought the best out of them.  I look for that to continue this week.

And finally, Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love is questionable for this game with an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision.  It would be wise for the Cardinal to rest him and get him ready for the stretch run. I like Oregon State at this +21 number whether or not Love plays, but it would obviously be a huge bonus if he doesn't.  Love is averaging 198.1 rushing yards per game and 10.3 per carry this season.  He is all they have offensively.

Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games following a close loss to a conference opponent by 7 points or less.  The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.  Oregon State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 October games.  The Beavers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games.  The Beavers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Oregon State Thursday.

25* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -3.5

The USC Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish are two popular teams in terms of the betting public.  They love to bet on both of them.  But the difference between these teams this season is that Notre Dame is for real, while USC is a complete fraud.

The Fighting Irish came into the season with limited outside expectations for the first time in a long time after going just 4-8 last season.  And now I still think they are flying under the radar despite their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start.  This team is the real deal.

The only loss came 19-20 at home to Georgia, a Georgia team that is easily one of the best four teams in college football and will likely make the four-team playoff.  The other five games the Fighting Irish have played have all resulted in blowouts by 20 or more points in their favor.  That includes a 38-18 win at Michigan State, a win that looks better and better as the season goes along.

Now the Fighting Irish have had two full weeks to get ready for USC after having their bye last week.  That's a huge advantage and one that is worth a lot more points to the spread than this small 3.5-point line.  Especially when you consider the Fighting Irish now get starting QB Brandon Wimbush back from a one-game absence due to injury.  They didn't need him to beat UNC 33-10 on the road two weeks ago, but they need him here against USC.

USC came into the season as a national title contender.  The Trojans have been anything but.  Despite their 6-1 record, they are just 1-6 ATS.  They lost at Washington State, needed overtime to beat Texas, and needed to stop a 2-point conversion in the final seconds last week to beat Utah 28-27 at home.

This tough schedule is starting to catch up to the Trojans.  They don't get a bye week this season, which is a huge disadvantage, especially after a tough physical game with Utah last week.  And they have a laundry list of injuries, especially up front along the offensive line.  Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and turnovers have been a big problem.  In fact, the Trojans have committed two or more turnovers in all seven games this season, and 16 turnovers overall.  That is a trend, not bad luck.

And Notre Dame has been good at forcing turnovers, getting two or more takeaways in five of six games this year and 14 takeaways overall.  They have only turned the ball over seven times.  This game is likely to be decided with turnovers, and the big edge goes to the Fighting Irish there.

What the Fighting Irish are doing in the running game is remarkable this season.  They are averaging 308 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  Wimbush has rushed for 402 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.9 per carry.  And Josh Adams has been unstoppable behind a dominant offensive line, rushing for 776 yards and five scores while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per carry.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Fighting Irish want revenge from a 27-45 road loss at USC last season.  USC is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games off two straight ATS losses where they won straight up as a favorite.  The Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +7

I've backed the LSU Tigers with success each of the last two weeks.  I had them as +3.5 dogs in a 17-16 win at Florida, and +7 dogs in a 23-21 home win over Auburn last week.  But now I'm changing course and fading them this week because they are now overvalued here as 7-point road favorites over the Ole Miss Rebels.

After beating Florida and Auburn in back-to-back weeks, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Tigers.  And they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for those wins.  They easily could have lost both games.  Florida missed an extra point that would have forced overtime, and Auburn blew a 20-0 lead.  I was clearly fortunate to win both of those games backing LSU.

This Ole Miss offense has been mighty impressive the last couple weeks.  They managed 429 total yards and 23 points on a very good Auburn defense on the road.  Then they beat Vanderbilt 57-35 last week while racking up 603 total yards against a decent Commodores defense.

Ole Miss boasts the best quarterback that not many have heard about in Shea Patterson.  He is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,143 yards with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. He has three stud receivers on the outside in A.J. Brown (35 receptions, 678 yards, 6 TD), DaMarkus Lodge (24, 438, 6 TD) and D.K. Metcalf (25, 357, 4 TD).

LSU hasn't seen playmakers this good since a 7-37 road loss at Mississippi State in Week 3.  This will be just the third road game for the Tigers this season.  They are averaging just 12.0 points per game in their two true road games this season.  Their offense remains limited, which is why they cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the past eight meetings overall.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against a road team (LSU) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 71-31 (69.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida -11

Tulane is a team I've backed a couple times with success this year.  It's a team I really like due to head coach Willie Fritz, but I think the Green Wave are going to be in over their heads here against one of the better teams in the country in the South Florida Bulls.

South Florida has opened 6-0 this season.  The Bulls were flat in their first two games under Charlie Strong, not quite living up to expectations while failing to cover the spread.  But this team has steadily gotten better through the season and is peaking right now.  The Bulls won 47-23 over Illinois as 16.5-point favorites, beat Temple 43-7 as 17.5-point favorites, won at ECU 61-31 as 21.5-point favorites and shut down Cincinnati 33-3 as 24-point home favorites.  That's four straight covers.

Now the Bulls are only being asked to lay 11 points because they are on the road here.  This is a Bulls team that has scored at least 30 points in 23 straight games, the longest current streak at the FBS level.  The Bulls are averaging 42.8 points this season, and it's their ability to put up points in a hurry that makes this 11-point spread so low.

Strong's calling card has always been defense, and that's been the case in his first year at USF.  The Bulls rank third in the nation in rushing defense (77.8 yards/game), and No. 8 in rushing offense (293 yards/game).  Top-ranked Alabama and No. 3 Georgia are the only other teams that rank in the top 10 in both categories.  USF also ranks first in the nation in interceptions (15) and turnover margin (+13).

Tulane has been held to 21 or fewer points in four of its six games this year.  We saw what happened to the Green Wave when they took a step up in class in Week 3, losing 14-56 at Oklahoma.  They also were terrible last week in a 10-23 loss at Florida International as 12-point favorites.

This is a big matchup problem for the Green Wave.  They primarily run the football, averaging 50 rush attempts per game and 278 yards per game, compared to 15 pass attempts per game and 102 passing yards per game.  Well, as stated before, USF is third in the country against the run.  They give up just 78 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry this season.

Tulane is 6-27 ATS in its last 33 games vs. excellent offensive teams who average 450 or more yards per game.  USF is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 conference games.  Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are two one-point losses away from being 5-1 this season.  They lost 16-17 at South Carolina as 9.5-point dogs, and 22-23 at UAB as 9.5-point favorites.  Those two losses look better and better by the week.  But because LA Tech is just 3-3, it is undervalued right now.

The Bulldogs will now be coming off their bye week and hungry for a victory following that loss to UAB.  And they have one of the more underrated home-field advantages of the small schools down in Ruston, Louisiana. I look for them to make easy work of the Southern Miss Eagles this week.

This is a Southern Miss team that comes in overvalued due to its 4-2 start.  But the Golden Eagles really only have one good win at UTSA 31-29.  The other three came against Southern, LA Monroe and UTEP.  They lost to the two best teams they played in Kentucky and North Texas, including a 28-43 home loss to the Mean Green.

Louisiana Tech is going to want revenge from a 39-24 loss at Southern Miss last year.  But I was on Southern Miss in that game because of the spot.  LA Tech had already clinched a trip to the C-USA title game the previous week, and Southern Miss was playing for a bowl game.  It was an easy choice on the Golden Eagles are 14.5-point home dogs.  But this time around, LA Tech needs the win more and it's a better spot for them because they are coming off a bye.

Louisiana Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games off two or more consecutive unders.  The Bulldogs are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a game in which they did not force a turnover.  The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -7

The UCF Knights have been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, but that only tells half the story.  Not only are they covering, they are covering by massive margins.  They have covered the point spread by a combined 102 points this season.  That's an average cover of 20 points per game.

I still don't believe the oddsmakers have caught up with them this week.  Now they are only being asked to lay a touchdown on the road at Navy.  I think Navy gets a lot of respect because they have been great as an underdog and as a covering team overall.  But this Navy team is more vulnerable than in year's past.

Navy is 5-1 this season, but four of those wins came by 10 points or less, including two by a combined five points.  And they have played an extremely soft schedule against FAU, Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Air Force and Memphis.  I'd say Memphis was the best team they've played, and they lost 27-30 to them last week.

What's great about this game is we already have some common opponents to compare these teams.  UCF won on the road at Cincinnati 51-23 in a game that was cut short by rain.  Navy only beat Cincinnati 42-32 at home.  UCF crushed Memphis 40-13 at home, while Navy lost at Memphis 27-30 on the road.

This is a UCF offense that is humming along, averaging 50.6 points per game. 547 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The Knights will find plenty of success against a Navy defense that is giving up 28.0 points per game, 6.2 yards per play and 8.5 yards per pass.

The reason UCF is probably the best team in the AAC is because it plays defense.  The Knights only allow 16.8 points per game and 5 yards per play.  They are only giving up 110 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  This game will be a mismatch athletically on both sides of the ball as the UCF team speed will be the difference.

Scott Frost has brought his offense in from Oregon and it is hitting on all cylinders right now.  Frost actually played scout-team quarterback for UCF this week, impersonating Navy's Zach Abbey and the triple-option.  This UCF team is having a lot of fun right now and they just have a great vibe to them with Frost.  He's clearly not going to be around much longer with the kind of success he's had here, taking a team that was 0-12 in 2015 to one that is now a contender to get the Group of 5 New Year's bowl game.

"He's running, dropping dimes," linebacker Chequan Burkett said. "You just think in your head, 'Hey man, this guy won a national championship doing this, so it's a wonderful experience to be able to face a quarterback who really did this and happens to be our head coach. He's giving us a great look. If he puts on shoulder pads and full gear, you'd really think he'd want to play us."

For Frost, the decision to run the scout team was an easy one. With both Georgia Tech and Navy on the 2017 schedule -- UCF visits the Midshipmen on Saturday -- Frost and his staff knew they had to start practice against the option months in advance. Most teams do that, just to get their teams acquainted with the offense.

"There is an art to playing option quarterback," he says. "I can't tell you how many reps I have at doing that kind of stuff. Even though I'm slow and old, it's probably still better than somebody that's doing it for the first time."

"He wanted to make sure that when the time came for us to play an option team that it wasn't a surprise," linebacker Shaquem Griffin said. "We didn't understand then, 'Why are we doing this now?' But going through the first day of practice Monday and everybody flying around and fitting the right spots, it showed what we did in spring and summer is paying off. I feel we're a step ahead. It's not like we're learning something new."

They'll be ready for the triple option Saturday.  And with the athletic mismatch on the field you'll witness this weekend, needing UCF to only win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread is a gift from oddsmakers.  Take UCF Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +7

The Nevada Wolf Pack are clearly a bet-on team moving forward.  They have opened 1-6 this season and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But what I've seen from them the last two weeks is a good sign of things to come in the near future.

It was always going to take some time for first-year head coach Jay Norvell to get this team firing on all cylinders.  He had to implement his Air-Raid offense, and after a slow start, this offense is really firing right now.

Two weeks ago Nevada beat Hawaii 35-21 at home as 5.5-point underdogs.  The offense racked up a whopping 566 total yards in the win.  Then last week was even more impressive as the Wolf Pack nearly pulled the upset as 24-point road dogs at Colorado State, only losing 42-44.  They threw for a ridiculous 508 yards in that game and are clearly playing well offensively.

This is an Air Force team that is way down this season with a 2-4 start to the year.  The only two wins were against Virginia Military and UNLV.  The Falcons had to erase a 27-7 deficit last week to beat UNLV 34-30 as 9-point home favorites.  They expanded a lot of energy with that comeback, so this will be a tough spot for them on this short week.  And they have a huge game against rival Army on deck next week, so it's also a bit of a look-ahead spot.

This is an Air Force defense that has allowed at least 28 points in five straight games.  And they gave up 56 to New Mexico, 48 to Navy and 30 to UNLV the last three weeks.  So there's no question this Air Raid Nevada offense is going to be able to move the ball and score points at will on what is an inexperienced Air Force defense that returned just one starter from last year.

Plays against road favorites (AIR FORCE) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Air Force is 0-7 ATS against teams who give up 425 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Wolf Pack tonight.  Bet Nevada Friday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Lafayette +13

This Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State matchup is one of the better rivalries in the Sun Belt.  And I'm going to back the double-digit dog in this game for that reason and many more.

Arkansas State has won at least a share of the Sun Belt title for five of the last six years.  But the one team they cannot figure out is Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns have actually gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Red Wolves.  They pulled the 24-19 upset as 5-point dogs last year, preventing the Red Wolves from an outright title.  And only once in the last nine meetings has Arkansas State beaten Lafayette by more than 10 points.

I really like what I've seen from this Lafayette team since switching to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games, beating Idaho 21-16 as 6-point road dogs, and Texas State 24-7 as 14-point home favorites.  As you can see, their defense has played much better the last two weeks as well.

Nunez is completing 64.8% of his passes for 732 yards and a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  He has four reliable targets who have all caught at least 17 balls this year, and three of them are averaging at least 13.6 yards per reception.  Nunez is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt.  And Trey Ragas has held down the fort in the backfield, rushing for 528 yards and seven scores on 6.4 per carry.

I believe Arkansas State comes in way overvalued off back-to-back wins blowout wins over two of the worst teams in college football, and both were very misleading finals.  They beat Georgia Southern 43-25 on the road despite getting outgained by 112 yards and giving up 493 total yards.  Then last week they beat Coastal Carolina 51-17 at home, but only outgained them by 37 yards.  Their other win came against FCS Arkansas Pine-Bluff for their 3-2 record.

Lafayette is in a huge scheduling advantage here.  The Rajin' Cajuns played last Thursday against Texas State, while the Red Wolves played on Saturday against Coastal Carolina.  That means Lafayette will have a full week to prepare, two more days than Lafayette, which will have had only four days to prepare.  I do not believe oddsmakers are factoring in this situation in the inflated number.

The Rajin' Cajuns are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Arkansas State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a blowout home win by 28 or more points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams who complete 62% or more of their passes.  Take Lafayette Thursday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +13

I was way down on Western Michigan coming into the season and I've seen nothing to change my mind thus far.  The Broncos are 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS.  Their only two victories by double-digits came at home against terrible Wagner and Ball State teams.

Western Michigan only beat Idaho 37-28 as 17-point home favorites.  Then last week they needed a whopping seven overtimes to beat Buffalo 71-68 on the road as 7-point favorites.  That's the key here is that the Broncos are going to be fatigued and won't have much left in the tank after playing seven overtimes.  They can't be laying two touchdowns to Akron here.

This is an Akron team that I believed to be one of the better squads in the MAC coming into the season.  And after a brutal non-conference schedule that featured losses to Penn State and Iowa State, the Zips have fared much better against similar competition.

They beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff 52-3.  They went on the road and only lost 17-22 as 17-point dogs at Troy, which is a Troy team that upset LSU on the road.  They won 34-23 as 3-point favorites at Bowling Green, and then crushed Ball State 31-3 as 4-point favorites last week.  They have now covered three in a row, yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers here.

Akron is one of the few MAC teams that plays solid defense.  The Zips are only giving up 24.0 points per game this season.  The Broncos have been sub-par defensively, giving up 31.7 points and 5.8 yards per play.  And the Broncos haven't been good as their offensive numbers would suggest.  They are averaging 414 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  This is just a mediocre MAC team that isn't nearly as good with the losses of PJ Fleck and all of their best playmakers on offense.

Western Michigan is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of the last six games.  Terry Bowden is 9-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of Akron.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I just think WMU is still getting too much respect for what it did last season.  Roll with Akron Sunday.

15* Washington/ASU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +17.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are in a great spot this week.  They are coming off their bye week after a brutal stretch to start the season.  They played two improved Group of 5 teams in New Mexico State and San Diego State, an improved Texas Tech team on the road, and then Pac-12 powers Oregon and Stanford.  They needed a bye week.

It's clear that this team has been improving.  Only losing by 7 at Texas Tech is no shame, and ASU came back to upset Oregon 37-35 as 15-point home dogs.  Keep in mind that was a healthy Oregon team, not the one that we've seen so banged up the last few weeks.  And a 24-34 loss as 17-point road dogs at Stanford was a quality performance heading into their bye.

Washington is way overvalued due to its 6-0 start and #5 national ranking.  The schedule couldn't have been any easier for the Huskies up to this point.  They have faced Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, Colorado, Oregon State and California.  Those are three of the worst teams in the Pac-12, an FCS opponent, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and a mediocre Mountain West squad.  To compare, ASU has faced four teams that are better than any team Washington has played.

Now the Huskies are being asked to lay a whopping 17.5 points on the road against an ASU team that has been very good at home in Pac-12 play.  The Sun Devils are 21-11 straight up in their last 32 Pac-12 home games.  And Arizona State hasn't been this big of a home underdog since 1996.

it is almost shocking how one-sided this series has been in recent years.  Indeed, Arizona State is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Washington.  Granted, most of those were before Chris Petersen arrived, but it's noteworthy nonetheless.

Arizona State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Todd Graham is 17-6 ATS as a home dog in all games he has coached.  The Sun Devils are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games overall.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7

The Auburn Tigers are way overvalued right now.  They have won four straight by 14 points or more coming in.  Their least impressive was a 24-10 home win over Mercer as a 41-point favorite, but then they beat Missouri 51-14 on the road, Mississippi State 49-10 at home and Ole Miss 44-23 at home.

Sure, they took care of business, but who have they really beaten so far?  Missouri is awful, Mississippi State was tired after facing LSU and Georgia the previous two weeks, and Ole Miss was coming off a 66-3 loss to Alabama.  The only good team they've faced that wasn't in a bad spot was Clemson, and they lost 6-14 while getting held to 117 total yards.

So it's time to 'sell high' on Auburn, while we 'buy low' on LSU.  LSU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Nobody wants to back this team right now after they were upset 21-24 by Troy.  But I jumped on them last week as 3.5-point road dogs at Florida, and a lot of big money was on them as well because they ended up -2 favorites.  LSU showed some great fight in a 17-16 road victory.

I think LSU will continue to fight for Ed Orgeron this week now.  This is a huge game against a Top 10 opponent, and Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  And just to show you how the perception on these teams has changed since the beginning of the season, the Game of the Year line on this game was LSU -7.  So this line has swung 14 points in Auburn's favor.  I agree it should have swung some, but this line should be closer to a pick 'em.  I think LSU is showing tremendous value as a touchdown home dog now.

LSU is 45-7 straight up at home since 2010.  Only two of those seven losses have come by more than a touchdown.  That makes for a 50-2 system backing LSU based on their home record since 2010 and factoring in this 7-point point spread.  You're not going to find a better value in the SEC the rest of the season.

Plays on home teams (LSU) - after four or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -2.5

Butch Jones was able to keep his job through the bye week despite a 41-0 home loss to Georgia last time out. Look for these players to rally around Jones and for this to be a 'win one for the gipper' type of performance.  Having two weeks to correct things should have Tennessee coming out and playing its best game of the season Saturday at home against South Carolina.

The bye week also gave Jones the perfect opportunity to make the switch at quarterback.  He'll be going with freshman Jarrett Guarantano this week and benching junior Quenten Dromandy, who simply wasn't getting it done.  Guarantano was the 9th-best QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, including the No. 1 dual-threat QB. He is more in the Joshua Dobbs mold of years' past.

"Jarrett's a good story because he's just unselfish," fifth-year senior wide receiver Josh Smith said. "You have a guy that, they're both competing, and you give the job to another guy, but he keeps competing. And that just shows his character. I think highly of him and I think he's growing and I think he's just going to keep getting better and better."

South Carolina may be the most fraudulent 4-2 team in the country.  The Gaoecocks are getting outgained by 55 yards per game on the season.  They were outgained by 258 yards despite beating NC State.  They were outgained by 64 yards at Missouri, which is a terrible Missouri team.  They lost 13-23 at home to Kentucky, barely beat LA Tech 17-16 at home, and their 48-22 win over Arkansas last week has them way overvalued.  The Gamecocks had three defensive touchdowns in that game and only outgained the Razorbacks by 28 yards.

Tennessee is 10-2 SU in its last 12 home meetings with South Carolina, winning by an average of 12 points per game.  The Vols are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 games following two more more consecutive ATS losses.  The Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia -3

I was in utter shock when I saw this line move from the opener of West Virginia -7 down to -3 early in the week.  The value on the Mountaineers -3 is too good to pass up.  I just think that these early bettors are dead wrong about Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders aren't nearly as good as they're getting credit for.

They just moved into the Top 25 at #24 this week.  We've seen this story before when a team not used to being in the Top 25 falls flat the week after getting ranked.  I can certainly see that being the case here.

The Red Raiders are getting too much credit for their 7-point home loss to Oklahoma State.  That was one of the more misleading finals of the year.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Oklahoma State had 13 drives, 12 of which went inside the Texas Tech 20-yard line.  Five of them wound up in chip shot field goals, and they missed two.  Another was a 97-yard pick-6 for a TD by the Red Raiders.  So that only being a 7-point game was a fluke.

Texas Tech hasn't beaten anyone of any relevance with narrow wins over Houston and Arizona State, and blowout wins over Eastern Washington and Kansas.  The Red Raiders have forced 14 turnovers already this season after forcing only 13 all of late year.  They can't keep up this pace.  12 of those turnovers came against FCS Eastern Washington, Kansas and a Houston team that was in the midst of a QB controversy.

I've been extremely impressed by West Virginia this year.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents.  They really should be 5-0, but the fact that they are just 3-2 has them flying under the radar.  They outgained VA Tech by 123 yards in a 24-31 loss.  Then last week in their most impressive performance, they outgained No. 6 TCU by 102 yards on the road in another 7-point loss.

The Mountaineers racked up 592 yards in Virginia Tech and another 508 on TCU, which are two of the better defenses in the country.  Florida transfer Will Grier has been lighting it up with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt.  He has two receivers in Gary Jennings and David Stills who are on pace for 1,000-yard receiving seasons.  RB Justin Crawford is on pace for 1,000 rushing yards while averaging 7.0 per carry.  This offense is loaded, and the defense has been better than expected.

Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  The Mountaineers are 14-2 at home over the last three seasons.  Their two losses came to Oklahoma last year, and that was an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.  And they lost to then-No. 21 Oklahoma State in overtime back in 2015.

The Mountaineers have won the last two meetings, including a 48-17 blowout as 3-point road favorites last year.  I think they win in blowout fashion at home in Morgantown once again this time around.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Washington State/Cal ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +14

The Washington State Cougars are way overvalued right now due to their 6-0 start while being ranked No. 8 in the country.  But they couldn't have played an easier schedule up to this point, and they have caught some unbelievable breaks along the way, which we'll get to.

For starters, Washington State opened with five straight home games.  They beat Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada in non-conference.  And they were trailing by 21 at home to Boise State before starting QB Brett Rypien got hurt, and they had a miraculous comeback to win 47-44 against a Boise team that simply isn't very good this year.

Their first Pac-12 game came at home against USC on a Friday night in front of a rowdy home crowd.  They were trailing in that game 17-10, and then all of a sudden USC lost three starting offensive linemen to injury, and the Trojans only managed 10 points over the final 40 minutes of the game as Sam Darnold was under duress behind that shaky O-Line.

The breaks continue last week for the Cougars as they faced an Oregon team with a third-string quarterback and several other key injuries.  They took advantage and won as they should have 33-10 on the road as 1-point favorites.  Now I think they are getting way too much respect here as 14-point road favorites at California.

The Golden Bears have had to play the much tougher schedule.  They opened 3-0 in the non-conference beating UNC on the road, and Weber State and Ole Miss at home despite being dogs in two of those games.  Then they played a great game against a healthy USC team, but lost 20-30 as 17-point home dogs despite committing six turnovers in that game.

Then they played a healthy Oregon team on the road and lost 24-45 as 17-point dogs before falling 7-38 on the road as 29-point dogs at Washington last week.  Those may have been the three best teams in the Pac-12 at the time they faced them, and now after two non-covers in a row, I think the Golden Bears come into this game undervalued.

Justin Wilcox, the former defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, was one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.  Turning around a Cal defense that gave up 42.6 points and 518 yards per game last season was going to be no easy task, and it's remarkable what he's been able to do on that side of the ball already in his first season.

This is a Cal defense that is only giving up 5.5 yards per play against team that average 6.4 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.9 yards per play below their season average.  To compare, Cal allowed 6.7 yards per play last season.  Washington State's numbers are skewed on both sides of the ball because of the lack of competition and the scheduling breaks thus far.

Cal has won 10 of its last 12 meetings with Washington State straight up.  Washington State has only been a double-digit road favorite six times in the last 25 years!  Mike Leach is 4-14 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  Leach is 3-14 ATS in his last 17 road games off three or more consecutive wins.  Take California Friday.

20* Clemson/Syracuse ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +22.5

We're starting to see the Clemson Tigers having to lay some inflated prices here of late because of all of the love they are getting from the public.  They have gone just 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall, and now they are overvalued once again as 22.5-point road favorites at Syracuse Friday night.

They beat Boston College 34-7 as 33-point favorites three weeks ago.  But that was a 7-7 game entering the 4th quarter.  They won and covered at VA Tech 31-17 as 7-point road favorites two weeks ago, but that was a misleading final as the Tigers were held to 332 total yards and outgained by 10 yards by the Hokies, but won the turnover battle 3-0.  Then last week they only won 28-14 at Wake Forest as 21-point favorites.

This is an upstart Syracuse team that is on the rise in the second season under Dino Babers.  They returned a whopping 19 starters this season and are clearly improved.  They have been competitive in every game, and their performances against the top teams they've faced show that they can hang with Clemson, especially in a nationally televised home game inside what will be a rowdy Carrier Dome Friday night.

Syracuse only lost 26-35 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 30 yards in that game.  More impressive may have been their 25-33 loss at NC State as 14-point dogs as they were only outgained by 18 yards in that game.  That's an NC State team that is among the best in the ACC this year, and that was on the road.

I think a big reason this line is so big is because Clemson won 54-0 at home over Syracuse last year.  I remember that game quite well because I was on Syracuse.  And when starting QB Eric Dungy was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, I knew I was in trouble.  Dungey means everything to this team.  He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,802 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 325 yards and eight scores.  They would be in trouble without him.

Now it's time for Dungey and Syracuse to redeem themselves.  They will be talking about that 54-0 loss all week leading up to this game.  They will be desperate to show that they are a much better team than what they showed last year.  And playing at home will help.  After all, Syracuse only lost 27-37 as 30-point home dogs to a very good Clemson team the season prior in 2015.

It's worth nothing that Clemson starting QB Kelly Bryant suffered an ankle injury against Wake Forest last week.  He is probable to start, but he won't be at 100% if he does, and his mobility is his biggest weapon.  "He'll be day-to-day, and we'll see how he progresses through the week," Tigers coach Dabo Swinney said. "If he's ready to play, he'll go play. If he's not, we'll play the next guy."

Clemson is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following three straight conference wins.  Syracuse is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games after covering the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Friday.

20* Texas State/UL Lafayette CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on OVER 56

We have a battle between two of the worst defenses in the country here in UL Lafayette and Texas State.  I believe the oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this game, and the OVER 56 is a very nice bet here in Sun Belt action Thursday night.

The UL Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have been in high-scoring games all season, other than last week against Idaho, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Lafayette is 4-1 to the OVER.  It is scoring 37.0 points per game this season, while giving up a whopping 46.2 points per game.  Thats an average of 83 combined points per game, which is 27 points more than this posted total of 56.

Texas State is giving up 33.7 points per game overall with a terrible defense.  The offense has not been good for the Bobcats, averaging just 14.5 points per game.  That's a combined 52 points per game, which is only 4 points less than this posted total of 56.  And I think the Bobcats will certainly get right offensively against this horrid Lafayette defense.

The Bobcats have gone OVER the total in each of their last three games.  They allowed 44 points to UTSA, 45 to Wyoming and 45 to LA Monroe.  This Louisiana offense should post a huge number and cover most of this OVER on their own, especially since they've made to the switch to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  Numez is completing 65.6% of his passes for 500 yards and three touchdowns with one INT while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.  The previous starter Jordan Davis was only completing 58.9% and averaging 6.3 per attempt.

The last two meetings at Lafayette have been extremely high-scoring.  Lafayette won 49-27 in 2015 for 76 combined points, and 48-24 in 2013 for 72 combined points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are averaging 50.5 points per game at home this season and giving up 52.0 points per game.  The Bobcats are allowing 41.0 points point game on the road.

Lafayette is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games off an upset win as a road dog.  Lafayette is 35-13 OVER in its last 48 games as a home favorite.  Texas State is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 road games versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt No-Brainer on South Alabama +17

The Troy Trojans are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off the biggest win in program history, winning 24-21 outright at LSU as 20.5-point road underdogs last time out.  Now they've been getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they won't have their best effort as they'll feel like they can just show up and win.

We saw a similar situation last year in which Troy was coming off a huge win over Appalachian State.  They moved into the Top 25 after that win, then promptly lost at home to Arkansas State 3-35 as 8-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 40 points.  The Trojans cannot be laying this kind of price given the terrible spot they are in mentally.

The South Alabama Jaguars have played a brutal schedule as they opened with Ole Miss and Oklahoma State.  They got right in a 45-0 win over Alabama A&M the next week, then lost in overtime to Idaho before falling 16-34 at LA Tech.  But that was a 17-16 game against LA Tech in the fourth quarter and a misleading final.

South Alabama gets some good news this week as starting QB Cole Garvin will be in the lineup.  He has missed 2.5 games due to injury, and that has been a big reason for their early struggles, along with the tough schedule.  I look for a big effort from the Jaguars here against their in-state rivals.

Troy has been overvalued all season up until that LSU game, going 1-4 ATS in its five games.  It only won 27-24 at New Mexico State as 9-point favorites, and 22-17 at home over Akron as 17-point favorites.  Those two results right there show that the Trojans can't be laying these big numbers.

This has become a bigger rivalry than most know, and I love big dogs in rivalry games.  The dog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  South Alabama only lost 34-33 at Troy in 2013 as 3.5-point dogs, won 27-13 at home in 2014 as 16-point favorites, won 24-18 at Troy as 6-point dogs in 2014, and covered as 9.5-point home dogs last year in a 21-28 loss.   As you can see, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, and three of those 7 points or fewer.

Plays on road teams (S ALABAMA) - after having lost three out of their last four games, in the first half of the season are 84-46 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games in the first half of the season.  Troy is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Troy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet South Alabama Wednesday.

20* Stanford/Utah Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are coming off a bye week having last played on Friday, September 22nd in a gutsy 30-24 road win to improve to 4-0 on the season.  They lost starting QB Tyler Huntley in the first half of that game, yet still found a way to win.  Now they'll be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this showdown with Stanford.

It helps that the Utes have a veteran backup in Troy Williams, who started all 13 games for them last year while leading the Utes to a 9-4 campaign.  He is one of the best backups in the country and isn't a very big downgrade at all from Huntley.  I think oddsmakers are adjusting way too much here for the Huntley injury.

Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City is one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It feels like the fans are right on top of you because they are so close to the field.  The Utes have gone 12-3 at home over the past three seasons, and all three losses have come by a touchdown or less.

I think the Bryce Love Heisman hype after back-to-back huge games has Stanford overrated right now.  But he did his damage against two of the worst defenses in the country in UCLA and Arizona State the past two weeks.  Now Love will be up against a stout Utah defense that is allowing only 86 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Stanford is still limited in the passing game, only once topping 173 passing yards this season, and that was in the opener against Rice.  I think Utah's ability to stop love and the Stanford ground attack will be the key to them not only covering, but likely winning this game outright Saturday night.

Kyle Whittingham has had Stanford's number in recent meetings.  The Utes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs in 2014, and outright as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013.  They simply match up well with the Cardinal because they play similar styles.

And one thing that always gets overlooked by bettors with Utah is their dominant special teams, which is one of the best units in the land year after year.  Reigning Ray Guy Award winner Mitch Wishnowky is averaging 46.8 yards per punt, and the Utes are giving up -1 net yards per punt this season, so they're fielding well.  Also, Matt Gay is 14-for-14 on field goal attempts this season, leading the nation in scoring.  Special teams could easily be the difference in this type of game.

Utah is 63-35 ATS in its last 98 games as a dog, including 36-19 ATS in its last 55 games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Utes are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Take Utah Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -3.5

The Texas Longhorns are improving rapidly right now under Tom Herman.  After losing to Maryland in the opener, they've gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, covering the spread by a combined 50 points in the process.  They beat San Jose State 56-0, took USC to overtime on the road, and picked up a nice 17-7 road win at Iowa State in their Big 12 opener.  They remain undervalued here as only 3.5-point home favorites against Kansas State.

That game against Iowa State was playing last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week to get ready for this game, which is certainly an advantage.  I think the Longhorns will be focused for this game because they are just 2-2, whereas if they were 4-0 they could be looking ahead to Oklahoma.  Herman won't let them look ahead to that game given the situation.  This 3.5-point spread looks short to me.

Kansas State has been shaky the last two weeks against two mediocre teams.  Their lost 7-14 at Vanderbilt, and that loss looks even worse after Vandy lost by 59 to Alabama and 14 to Florida.  Then they only beat a winless Baylor team 33-20 at home last week.  They were actually outgained by 31 yards by the Bears.

The Wildcats are a one-dimensional team that can only run the ball.  In the last two games against Vanderbilt and Baylor, they have gone a combined 17-of-45 passing for 195 yards.  That's just 38% completions and 98 passing yards per game.

That makes this an excellent matchup for the Longhorns.  Texas has held its last three opponents to just 123 rushing yards on 75 attempts, or a measly 1.6 yards per carry.  Their defensive front seven is clearly one of the best units in the country, and that will be the key to them winning and covering this measly 3.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games off a two-game road trip.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* LSU/Florida SEC No-Brainer on LSU +3.5

The LSU Tigers were thoroughly embarrassed with their 21-24 home loss to Troy as 20.5-point favorites.  They have been taking grief in the media all week, and they really just can't wait to get out and hit somebody Saturday to take out their frustration.  I fully expect the best performance of the season from LSU given their mental state coming into this game against Florida.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were upset 10-16 at home by Florida as 13.5-point favorites last year.  They haven't forgotten about it.  There's no way they should have lost that game either as they outgained the Gators by 153 yards for the game.  Their red zone struggles were the difference, and Florida's only TD was a fluke 98-yard TD pass to Tyrie Cleveland.

The Gators continue to be the most lucky team in college football.  They could easily be 0-4 right now instead of 3-1.  They won on a hail mary on the final play against Tennessee, scored in the closing seconds to beat Kentucky 28-27, and only led Vanderbilt 31-24 in the final seconds before breaking a long TD run when they could have just run out the clock.

And those wins clearly don't look that good now.  Tennessee was beaten 41-0 at home by Georgia, Vanderbilt was beaten 59-0 at home by Alabama, and Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan 24-20 at home last week.  This Florida team is a fraud, and it showed against a team of LSU's caliber in their opener in a 17-33 loss to Michigan.  The Gators were outgained by 241 yards by the Wolverines.

This is where all those Florida injuries and suspensions catches up to them like it did against a team the class of Michigan.  Plus, the Gators are now expected to be without leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland (15 receptions, 326 yards, 2 TD, 21.7/reception), who is doubtful with an ankle injury suffered in that win over Vanderbilt last week.  To say the Gators are lacking playmakers on offense would be a massive understatement.

Conversely, LSU gets some good news on the injury front as star RB Derrius Guice is probable to play Saturday.  He sat out last week's game against Troy, which was a big reason they were upset.  He rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.6/carry last year.  Not to mention, fellow starters DE Rashard Lawrence and LB Corey Thompson are both probable to play as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  LSU is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games following a loss.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  LSU is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Florida. Take LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +17.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a huge flat spot here against Kansas.  After pulling off the 27-24 upset at Houston, the Red Raiders had their shot to upset Oklahoma State at home last week, but fell just short with a 35-42 loss.  After playing one of the top teams in the country, they certainly aren't going to be able to get up for Kansas this week.

And I think the Red Raiders are getting way too much respect for what they've done the last two weeks.  I think Houston is way down this season compared to last year, and a closer look at the Oklahoma State game shows that it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Texas Tech had a 95-yard INT return TD, and Oklahoma State settled for several short field goals, missing a couple of them as well.

One key to this game is that Texas Tech is going to be without leading receiver Keke Coutee, who suffered a knee injury against Oklahoma State and is doubtful to play this week.  Nic Shimonek looked lost without him against the Cowboys.  Coutee is by far the leading receiver on this game, catching 31 balls for 499 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 16.1 yards per reception.

Texas Tech has been a terrible road team in recent years.  We saw them losing 10-66 at Iowa State last year a week after narrowly falling short against Oklahoma State in a 44-45 loss.  This is the exact same situation against a Big 12 bottom feeder in Kansas.

But the Jayhawks are steadily improving in the third season under David Beaty.  They have been competitive in all four of their games this year.  Their offense has taken a big step forward, averaging 32.2 points and 480 yards per game thus far.  Of course their defense isn't very good, but it's not much worse than that of Texas Tech, which fields one of the worst defenses in the country every year.

This offense put up 34 points and 564 total yards against West Virgina in their last game.  Now the Jayhawks have had two full weeks to prepare for Texas Tech after getting a bye last week.  That's a big advantage and one that will be useful for a team like Kansas.  

This is a Kansas team that was competitive at home last year, only losing 23-24 to TCU as 28-point dogs, losing 24-31 to Iowa State as 11-point dogs, and actually upsetting Texas 24-21 as 23-point dogs.  They have what it takes to hang with Texas Tech, especially given the situation.

Kansas is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.  Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -4

Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015.  Now just look how far Georgia Southern has fallen since his departure.

Fritz took the Tulane job knowing it would be a rebuilding process.  Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8.  Fritz brought his spread offense to Tulane in '16 and did not have the right personnel to run it. Now he does, and he welcomed back a whopping 16 starters this year, while recruiting the perfect dual-threat QB in Jonathan Banks.

The Green Wave have opened 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in 2017 and are clearly undervalued.  They beat Grambline 43-14, gave Navy all they wanted as 8-point road dogs in a 21-23 loss, and beat Army 21-17 at home as 3-point favorites.  And they should have covered against Oklahoma and actually had a 14-7 lead over the Sooners in the second quarter before falling apart after half.

Tulane had a bye last week.  It couldn't have come at a better time following that brutal three-game stretch against Navy, Oklahoma and Army.  So they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday against a tired, undermanned Tulsa team that will be playing their 6th game in 6 weeks.

This was clearly going to be a rebuilding year for Tulsa after all they lost in the offseason.  They lost all of their top skill players on offense, and have opened 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS through five games.  Their last two games have been particularly concerning.

They lost 13-16 at home to New Mexico as 7.5-point favorites.  New Mexico was starting its third-string quarterback due to injury, and the Lobos should have won by more as they outgained Tulsa by 160 yards.  Then they had to play Navy last week, getting outgained by 167 yards in a 21-31 home loss.

Tulsa has been hit in the mouth by some elite rushing attacks this season, and they haven't offered any resistance.  The Golden Hurricane are giving up a ridiculous 320 rushing yards per game and 6.7 per carry this season.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them against a Tulane team that will shove it down their throat, too.

The Green Wave are averaging 244 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  And it's clearly that the Green Wave have one of the better defenses in the AAC.  They are giving up 27.5 points, 388 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opponents that average 31.3 points, 428 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So they have been well better than average defensively.  That can't be said for Tulsa, which is giving up 40.4 points, 574 yards per game and 8.2 per play.

Tulane is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Tulsa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Green Wave have only committed two turnovers in four games.  Fritz is 17-6 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Fritz is 12-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game as a head coach.  Roll with Tulane Saturday.

20* Memphis/UConn AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UConn +14

The Memphis Tigers have been extremely overrated this season.  They are 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They are getting way too much respect for their 48-45 home win over UCLA in Week 3.  That was a 9:00 AM local time start for UCLA and they simply weren't ready to play.  And the fact of the matter is that UCLA team just isn't very good, especially defensively.

The other three games have been very concerning for Memphis.  They only beat Louisiana Monroe 37-29 as 28-point home favorites and FCS foe Southern Illinois 44-31 as 30-point home favorites.  Then I had UCF as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR last week against Memphis, and the Golden Knights rolled to a 40-13 home victory over the Tigers as 5.5-point favorites.  As you can see, the Tigers haven't even come close to covering the spread in any of those three games.

Now Memphis is being asked to go on the road for just the second time this season and lay two touchdowns to Connecticut.  Of course, the Huskies are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS on the season, so oddsmakers have to set the number high to try and even out the action.  But I've seen some signs from the Huskies here lately that make be believe they can hang with Memphis.

The 18-38 loss at Virginia doesn't look so bad now after Virginia went into Boise State and crushed them 42-23 as 13.5-point underdogs.  UConn then lost to ECU 38-41 in a game that was dead even in total yards.  The Huskies then played an upstart SMU team that is covering spreads left and right and lost 28-49 on the road as 16.5-point dogs.  But that was a 28-28 game in the 4th quarter before the Mustangs scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute span to pull away.  It was a misleading final score.  And that SMU team is better than Memphis.

I've been most impressed with Randy Edsall's ability to bring this UConn offense to life.  The Huskies are averaging 27.7 points, 467 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  They are right there with Memphis statistically.  The Tigers are scoring 35.5 points, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.4 per play.  UConn QB Bryant Sherrifs has been a revelation, completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 11 yards per attempt.

Neither team offers much to like defensively.  The Tigers are giving up 36.2 points, 513 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Huskies are yielding 37.0 points, 542 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So give the Tigers a slight edge defensively, but not much.  Given the closeness of the stats and the home-field advantage for the Huskies, there's no way they should be catching two touchdowns here.

Mike Norvell is 0-6 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of Memphis.  UConn is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Memphis is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games on grass.  

Plays against road favorites (MEMPHIS) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet UConn Friday.

15* Louisville/NC State ACC No-Brainer on NC State +4.5

The NC State Wolfpack are a team I had pegged as a big sleeper to win the Atlantic Division coming into the year.  They returned 17 starters, a stud QB in Ryan Finley, and one of the best defensive lines in the country.  From what I've seen so far, they will be right there until the end.

NC State should be 5-0.  They lost the opener 28-35 to South Carolina despite outgaining the Gamecocks by 258 yards.  That loss has kept them under the radar.  They have reeled off four straight wins since, beating Marshall, Furman and Syracuse at home, and then pulling the impressive 27-21 upset as 10.5-point road dogs at Florida State that really shows what they're capable of.

Louisville gets a lot of love from the betting public because of Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson.  But this team really isn't that good despite their 4-1 record.  They have gone 1-4 ATS with their only cover coming by a half-point 47-35 at UNC as 11.5-point favorites.  Well, UNC is 1-4 this season.  They lost 21-47 at home to Clemson in a game that shows what their real potential is.

NC State is going to want revenge from an ugly 54-13 loss at Louisville last season.  That will show up from the Wolfpack defense that features eight senior starters.  They have given up just 20.5 points per game since allowing 35 points to South Carolina despite holding the Gamecocks to 246 total yards, so that point total was a fluke.  Their Run D will be key here stopping Lamar Jackson.  The Wolfpack are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.

And Finley and company should find plenty of success against a leaky Louisville defense that has allowed 28 or more points in the three games against Power 5 opponents outside Kent State and Murray State.  Finley is completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,403 yards with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio on the season.  The Wolfpack have only committed two turnovers all season, while the Cardinals have given the ball away 10 times and can be very sloppy with it at times.

Dave Doeren is 9-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins as the coach of NC State.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  Take NC State Thursday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +28

Calling out Alabama clearly wasn't a wise move by one of Vanderbilt's players.  The Crimson Tide mopped the floor with the Commodores 59-0 last week.  But now the betting public is back to looking at Alabama like it can't be beat, and quick to forget that they did not look all that good in their first three games of the season.  That's evident by this massive 28-point spread this week.

Florida State gave away the game by committing three turnovers in a 24-7 loss that was much closer than the final score showed.  Alabama only won 41-10 as 43-point home favorites over Fresno State, and 41-23 as 31-point home favorites over Colorado State.  If those two teams can hang around against Alabama, then Ole Miss certainly can.

That's especially the case considering Ole Miss is coming off a bye and will be the more prepared team.  The Rebels have opened 2-1 with their only loss coming 16-27 at Cal.  Well, Cal is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Golden Bears beat UNC on the road, and were tied with USC in the fourth quarter last week, losing 20-30 despite committing six turnovers in that contest.  They probably should have beaten USC.

No team has played Alabama tougher than Ole Miss over the past few seasons.  Ole Miss won outright 23-17 as 5.5-point home dogs in 2014, 43-37 as 9-point road dogs in 2015, and only lost 43-48 as 10-point home dogs last year.  It's not a fluke how close these games have been, either.

Alabama has struggled against up-tempo, spread teams that run a lot of plays.  Deshaun Watson of Clemson, Nick Marshall of Auburn, and both Bo Wallace and Chad Kelly of Ole Miss have run those types of offenses against them.  And Ole Miss has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Shea Patterson.

Patterson is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,281 yards with 11 touchdowns against only four interceptions while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt this season.  And Ole Miss may have more talent at the receiver position than they have in any of the past years against Alabama.  They already have five players with 11 or more receptions on the season.

Ole Miss is averaging 7.5 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 6.7 yards per play.  They are giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  Their defense isn't as good as it has been in year's past, but it's still an above-average unit and good enough to hang around with Alabama for four quarters.

When a high-scoring affair is expected, Alabama doesn't fare too well.  The Crimson Tide are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63.  Alabama is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer passing yards last game.  The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, consistently overvalued laying too many points at home.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tuscaloosa.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on OVER 81

This play is about as square as it gets and completely goes against what I believe in most of the time.  Everyone is going to be on the OVER in this game, which would make me normally want to back the under.  But the fact of the matter is that square wins sometimes, and I simply do not believe the oddsmakers have set this total high enough, even at 81 points!

Nothing has really changed about these two programs this year.  They are both up-tempo, passing teams that put up a lot of points.  Oklahoma State is scoring 48.2 points per game, averaging 580 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play.  Texas Tech is scoring 45.0 yards per game, averaging 587 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play.  And neither team is too concerned with playing defense, especially Texas Tech.

So since nothing has changed with these teams, it makes their recent head-to-head history very important.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and the Cowboys and Red Raiders have combined for 80 or more points in all five meetings.  They have averaged 91.6 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is roughly 12 points more than this total.  They went off for 123 combined points in their last meeting at Texas Tech in 2015.

The OVER is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 conference games.  The OVER is 14-5 in Red Raiders last 19 home games.  The OVER is 12-3 in Red Raiders last 15 vs. a team wtih a winning record.  Kliff Kingsbury is 11-1 OVER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of Texas Tech.  Kingsburgy is 9-0 vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game as the coach of the Red Raiders.  Texas Tech is 9-1 to the OVER off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -3.5

When this game was originally scheduled for September 9th, I had UCF picked as -2.5 favorites over Memphis early in the week.  That line jumped to 3.5 and 4 in some places by the day the game was supposed to be played.  I was upset because I had a great number early in the week.  Well, the line has come out basically the same for the rescheduled contest here, and I'm back on the Knights in a big way.

The UCF Knights are a team on the rise.  After winning 10, 12 and 9 games from 2012-'14, they bottomed out at 0-12 in 2015.  Scott Frost then stepped into a good situation with 17 starters back last year and got the Knights to a bowl game.  Now I believe UCF is one of the better teams in the AAC in 2017.

They have 13 starters back this year, including nine on an offense that is loaded.  That offense has shined in a 2-0 start with a 61-17 win over Florida International as 17.5-point favorites, and a 38-10 win at Maryland as 4.5-point dogs.  In those two games alone, the Knights covered the spread by a combined 59 points.  The markets just haven't caught up to how good this team really is.

McKenzie Milton got his feet wet as a freshman last year, and should be primed for a big sophomore season as he takes a step forward here.  He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 538 yards with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games, while also rushing for 98 yards and averaging 10.9 per carry.  This offense is hitting on all cylinders.

There's no question that UCF has the better defense in this matchup.  They gave up just 24.6 points and 370 yards per game last year.  They have held FIU and Maryland to just 13.5 points, 266 yards per game and 4.4 per play, holding them to 15.0 points, 115 yards per game and 1.8 per play less than their season averages.

Memphis clearly has a good offense with Riley Ferguson at quarterback.  But they are fortunate to be 3-0 right now, and they have played three poor defenses at home in LA Monroe, UCLA and Southern Illinois.  They only won by 8 against LA Monroe as 28-point favorites, beat UCLA by 3 as 3.5-point dogs in a bad spot for the Bruins with the 9:00 AM local start time, and only beat Southern Illinois by 13 as 30-point favorites.  Now the Tigers have to go on the road for the first time.

Memphis' defense gave up 28.8 points and 455 yards per game last year.  This defense isn't any better in 2017.  They are giving up 35.0 points, 484 yards per game and 5.5 per play already this season.  That's very poor when you consider they've faced two poor offensive teams in LA-Monroe and Southern Illinois, giving up a combined 60 points to those two teams.

UCF has owned Memphis through the years, going 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings since 2005 while winning eight of the nine games by 7 points or more.  Plays on a home team (UCF) - after two straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1992.

Memphis is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game.    The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings.  The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -3.5

Two of the most misleading box scores last week were Michigan State/Notre Dame and Penn State/Iowa.  And now since Michigan State was blown out by Notre Dame, while Iowa nearly upset Penn State, the public perception of these two teams is wrong.  The Spartans are better than their score showed, while the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good as their score.

Michigan State lost 18-38 to Notre Dame despite outgaining the Fighting Irish 496 to 355, or by 141 total yards.  The difference in that game was that they lost the turnover battle 3-0.  Meanwhile, Iowa only lost 19-21 to Penn State despite getting outgained 273 to 579, or by 306 total yards.  In fact, Saquon Barkley (305 scrimmage yards) outgained Iowa on his own!

It's clear that Michigan State is vastly improved this season and better than most thought they would be after a disastrous 3-9 campaign last year.  The numbers have shown that, too.  They are averaging 473 yards per game and 6.0 per play on offense, and giving up only 254 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining teams by 219 yards per game and 1.7 per play.

Conversely, Iowa is not as good as their 3-1 record.  They are actually getting outgained by 29 yards per game this season.  Their win over Wyoming doesn't look nearly as good now as the Cowboys have struggled.  They nearly lost to North Texas at home, and they were lucky to escape with a 44-41 (OT) win at Iowa State as they erased a 10-point fourth quarter deficit.

The Spartans clearly have the better quarterback here in Brian Lewerke, who is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 751 yards with six touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 206 yards and two scores while averaging 7.9 per carry.  The Spartans now have a QB after struggling at the position last year.

It's much easier to recover from a blowout loss for Michigan State.  They know what they did wrong with turnovers, and they know they're better than they played.  I question Iowa's mental state after losing on the final play of the game to Penn State.  They nearly pulled off the miracle despite getting dominated statistically, and after such a big game on the National TV stage, I can't see them getting back up off the mat in time to match Michigan State's intensity here Saturday.

Dantonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of the Spartans.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +14.5

The Eastern Michigan Eagles made their first bowl game since 1987 and posted a 7-6 record last year.  They returned 16 starters from that team and are clearly one of the best teams in the MAC.  They have opened 2-1 this season with their only loss to overtime against Ohio, one of the favorites to win the MAC.

Eastern Michigan went on the road and already beat a Power 5 opponent in Rutgers from the Big Ten.  They won that game 16-13 as 6-point dogs.  And that's a Rutgers team that has played both Washington and Nebraska tough this season, so it was a really good win.  Now the Eagles are catching over two touchdowns against another mediocre Power 5 team in Kentucky.

But this play is really all about the spot.  Kentucky opened 3-0 and felt like this was the year they were going to end the 30-game losing streak to Florida.  Instead, the same usual thing happened as they gave up the lead in the final seconds and lost 27-28.  Off such a deflating loss, I don't think the Wildcats will get back up off the mat in time to put Eastern Michigan away by more than two touchdowns this week.

And even though Kentucky is 3-1, all three wins came by 11 points or less against mediocre opponents in Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky and South Carolina.  They only beat Eastern Kentucky 27-16 as 33-point home favorites.  It's clear with that result that a much better team like Eastern Michigan is capable of staying within two touchdowns here.

Plays against a home team (KENTUCKY) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 86-42 (67.2%) ATS since 1992.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Kentucky is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -7.5

You're never going to get the Florida State Seminoles at a better value than you are now after their 0-2 start to the season.  But both losses are forgivable.  They lost to the best team in the country in Alabama and played them tough.  Then they had a three-week layoff and lost to an upstart NC State team that is better than they get credit for.

This is the perfect storm too because Wake Forest couldn't possibly be more overvalued right now after their 4-0 start.  Look who they've beaten though.  Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah State and Appalachian State.  And they were extremely fortunate to beat App State 20-19 as 5.5-point favorites last week.  They were outgained 344 to 494 in that game, or by 150 total yards.

I think this is a 'circle the wagons' game for Florida State.  Jimbo Fisher will wipe the slate clean and let his team know that a new season starts this week.  It was a tough spot with the three-week layoff and freshman QB James Blackmon making his first start.  But Blackmon played well with 278 passing yards and a touchdown without an interception.  And this FSU defense is still loaded with nine returning starters and a boat load of talent.

Speaking of talent, there is a huge talent discrepancy in this game, a much bigger one than this 7.5-point spread would indicate. And that has shown in recent meetings between these teams.  Florida State is 5-0 in the last five meetings, winning by a whopping 31.4 points per game on average.

Jimbo Fisher is 10-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State.  The Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -9.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went 9-4 last season.  Their numbers showed that they weren't as good as their record.  But they brought back a whopping 16 starters this season, and now their numbers show that they should be 3-0 and are clearly improved.

Georgia Tech lost its opener 41-42 to Tennessee on a neutral field in overtime despite outgaining the Vols by 286 yards.  Then they beat Jacksonville State five days later 37-10 as 14-point favorites.  They had two weeks off and then beat Pitt 35-17 while outgaining the Panthers by 249 yards.  They are averaging 487 yards per game on offense and giving up only 264 yards on defense this season.

North Carolina was a team I pegged to take a big step back this year.  They lost Mitch Trubisky to the NFL, their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers.  And that has proven to be the case as UNC is off to a 1-3 start this season despite playing three home games.  They lost all three to Cal, Louisville and Duke.  Their only win came on the road against a terrible Old Dominion team.

UNC clearly has a leaky defense this year that is giving up 33.0 points, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They gave up 312 rushing yards to Louisville and 186 to Duke.  Now they're up against Georgia Tech's triple-option attack that is averaging 394 yards per game and 5.8 per carry on the ground.

And the Tar Heels are a tired football team since they haven't had a bye yet, while the Yellow Jackets are the fresher squad after having a bye two weeks ago thanks to the canceling of the UCF game.  And you can bet Georgia Tech has had this game circled.  It wants revenge on a UNC team that it has lost to three straight meetings, including an embarrassing 20-48 road loss last year.  And the Yellow Jackets will be focused knowing that they have a bye next week, so they will be putting all their chips on the table this week.

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than UNC, which has 18 players listed on the injury report.  Nine are out for the season and nine are questionable as of this write-up.  They're the team that could use a bye, but they won't be betting one until November 4th, so we'll likely continue to fade away moving forward.

The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  This team is still way undervalued in the markets right now, even as 9.5-point favorites here in a game they should win comfortably by double-digits.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* USC/Washington State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 65

This is a huge game between USC and Washington State in Pac-12 action Friday.  The betting public will be expecting offensive fireworks, but I'm anticipating a totally different game.  Points will be much tougher to come by than this 65-point total would indicate.

Washington State has improved defensively in a big way over the last couple years.  They are giving up just 18.5 points, 262 yards per game and 4.4 per play this season.  That even includes the 44 points they gave up to Boise State in Week 2 in triple-overtime, but that game was tied 31-31 at the end of regulation, and there were three non-offensive touchdowns that contributed to that 62-point total.

Sticking with that Boise game, Washington State's offense only scored 17 points in regulation.  They only managed 31 against Montana State, then scored 52 and 45 against two terrible defenses in Oregon State and Nevada, respectively.  It won't come nearly as easy for their offense this week against the best opponent they've faced in USC.

The Trojans are really playing well defensively this season, which is the biggest reason for their 4-0 start.  They are giving up just 24.7 points, 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 35.5 points, 424 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season.  They are holding their opponents to 10.8 points, 54 yards and 0.7 per play less than their season averages.

Sam Darnold isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard for the Trojans, throwing nine touchdowns against seven interceptions.  They only managed 27 points against Texas and 30 against Cal in their last two games, two below average defensive teams.  Darnold has already thrown seven interceptions.  He is struggling behind an inexperienced offensive line that lost three starters in the offseason. Not to mention, leading returning rusher and receiver Ronald Jones (thigh) and Deontay Burnett (shoulder) are both banged up right now.

In the last 20 meetings in this series, USC and Washington State haven't combined for more than 69 points once.  They have averaged only 52 combined points per game in those 20 meetings, which is 13 points less than this posted total of 65.  They have combined for more than 65 points only three times.

USC is 6-0 to the UNDER as a road favorite over the last three seasons.  Washington State is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Trojans last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Cougars last 21 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Texas/Iowa State ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa State +6.5

This is a standalone Thursday night game that almost always favors the home team.  That is certainly the case here for the Iowa State Cyclones, who have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  They have put a lot of money into updating Jack Trice Stadium, and it will be a sell-out crowd here Thursday night.

The Cyclones are clearly one of the more improved teams in the country this season.  Matt Campbell has things heading in the right direction in Ames in his second season.  This is a team that really should be 3-0 because they blew a fourth quarter lead against Iowa, eventually losing in overtime.  That's and Iowa team that lost on the final play of the game to No. 4 Penn State last week.

The strength of the Cyclones is an offense that has put up 41.3 points and 460 yards per game thus far.  Jacob Park has been lighting it up, completing 66.7% of his passes for 935 yards and eight touchdowns against only two interceptions.  He is averaging 312 passing yards per game.  He has a a bevy of weapons led by Hakeem Butler (15 receptions, 234 yards, 3 TD) and Allen Lazard (19, 178, 3 TD).  David Montgomery will fight for every yard he gets, rushing for 322 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.8 per carry.

What Campbell has done at Iowa State that past coaches haven't been able to do is build the offensive and defensive lines.  The O-Line is vastly improved this season, and D-Line too.  That has been evident defensively as the Cyclones are only giving up 107 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  They gave up 218 rushing yards per game last season to compare.

Texas is a team that will get better as the season goes on as well under Tom Herman, but they are clearly behind the eight ball this early in the season.  They lost to Maryland at home, beat San Jose State, then hung tough at USC.  I had Texas in that game as it was a clear letdown spot for USC after a big win over Stanford the previous week.  And Texas gave up 397 passing yards in that game, so Park will find plenty of success against them through the air.

Texas' offense isn't hitting on all cyclinders by any means, either.  They only rushed for 98 yards on 31 carries against Maryland, and 68 yards on 35 carries against USC.  The Longhorns are only completing 58.2% of their passes thus far as well.  They only completed 21 of 40 passes and committed four turnovers against USC.

The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Iowa State won 24-0 as 3.5-point home dogs in 2015, and got jobbed by the refs in a 30-31 home loss at 7-point dogs in 2013.  I think these are two pretty evenly-matched teams at this point in the season, so getting 6.5 points with the home team on a standalone Thursday game is an excellent value.

Iowa State has only committed two turnovers in three games.  The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  Texas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games versus teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last five Thursday games.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

15* Notre Dame/Michigan State FOX Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +4

I just believe that that the Michigan State Spartans were massively underrated heading into 2017 after their shocking 3-9 disaster last season.  Mark Dantonio does his best work with his back against the wall, and he'll have the Spartans exceeding expectations now this year.

The Spartans got off to a great start in Week 1 with a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green as 17-point favorites.  They even lost the turnover battle three to one and still won by 25, outgaining the Falcons 465 to 212 in the process.  It was a dominant effort and one that has me excited about this team moving forward.

I backed the Spartans again in their Week 2 victory over Western Michigan, 28-14 as 7-point home favorites.  They absolutely dominated that game more than the final score showed.  They outgained the Broncos 457 to 195 for the game, or by 262 total yards.  And that's a Western Michigan team that took USC down to the wire on the road in Week 1.

It looks like the Spartans are back to playing the elite defense we have become accustomed to rather than the soft unit we saw last year.  The Spartans are only giving up 12.0 points per game and 203 yards per game as well as 3.4 yards per play.  And the Spartans are back to running the ball with authority, averaging 255 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.

Notre Dame is also a team I was high on coming into the season, but I think they are overvalued here as road favorites. The Fighting Irish have thumped two poor teams in Temple and Boston College, and they lost their only true test at home against Georgia 20-21 as 5.5-point favorites.  I think Michigan State is in a similar class to Georgia.

Michigan State was not good last year, yet they still went on the road and beat Notre Dame 36-28 as 7.5-point underdogs.  They racked up 501 total yards on that Notre Dame defense.  Now the Spartans have had two full weeks to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is a huge advantage coming in.

Notre Dame is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.  Michigan State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 225 or fewer yards/game in its previous two games.  The Fighting Irish are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* Penn State/Iowa ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Iowa +13

For starters, Kinnick Stadium is an extremely tough place to play, especially on a Saturday night.  We saw then-No. 2 Michigan watch its playoff hopes dwindle with a 13-14 loss in Iowa City last year as 21-point favorites.  In fact, Iowa is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home games vs. Top 5 teams dating back to 2009.

Many think this is going to be an easy game for No. 4 Penn State after crushing Iowa 41-14 in Happy Valley last year.  But that just has the revenge angle working in our favor here as these Hawkeye players have not forgotten.  Look for them to bring their "A" effort here Saturday night on ABC.

Penn State is way overvalued right now after going 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall dating back to last season.  It's time to 'sell high' on them now that you're having to pay a premium to back them.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season, but they've played three cupcakes at home in Akron, Pitt and Georgia State.

Akron lost 41-14 at home to Iowa State, which Iowa beat on the road two weeks ago.  Penn State was actually outgained by Pitt 30 yards in their 33-14 victory, a game that was clearly much closer than the final score would indicate.  And that's a Pitt team that lost 21-59 at home to Oklahoma State last week, and needed overtime to beat Youngstown State at home in Week 1.

I think most are down on Iowa after they struggled with North Texas last week.  But that was clearly a flat spot after beating rival Iowa State in overtime the week before, and having Penn State on deck the next week.  And the Hawkeyes still won 31-14 and kneeled on the 2-yard line in the closing seconds, otherwise they would have covered the 19.5-point spread.  They also had a TD called back by a taunting penalty and didn't wind up scoring on that possession.

Iowa usually goes under the radar every year because they play a boring brand of football.  They win with defense and a running game.  But I've been impressed with QB Nathan Stanley through three games.  He threw five touchdown passes against Iowa State and it could have been more had he not overthrown a couple guys deep.  This Iowa offense is more potent than it has been in the past.  And the Hawkeyes will have the advantage on the offensive and defensive lines in this game, which always gives them a chance.

Kirk Ferentz is 24-4 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Iowa.  Penn State is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 6 points or less.  Iowa is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on SMU -5.5

The SMU Mustangs are a team I was very high on coming into the season.  They are coming off a 5-7 season and were much more competitive in 2016.  They brought back 14 starters in 2017 and entered Year 3 under Chad Morris, the former Clemson offensive coordinator who also coached 16 seasons of high school football in Texas.  Morris has this program headed in the right direction.

SMU has certainly looked improved thus far, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won 58-14 over Stephen F. Austin as 30-point favorites, 54-32 as 11.5-point favorites over North Texas, and lost 36-56 at TCU as 22-point dogs, giving the Horned Frogs from the Big 12 all they could handle.  This was a 7-point game entering the fourth quarter last week.

Morris knows how to coach up an offense, and he has the Mustangs galloping full speed ahead this season.  They are averaging 49.3 points, 474 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play thus far against teams that give up 35.1 points, 376 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  Their defense has at least been average this season.

Arkansas State has been the king of the Sun Belt over the last few seasons.  But the Red Wolves haven't done that well in non-conference action over the same time frame.  And I think they're getting too much respect for playing Nebraska close in a 36-43 loss in Week 1.  That's the same Nebraska team that was upset at home by Northern Illinois last week.

This is the least-experienced team that the Red Wolves have had since 2014.  That year they returned 10 starters and went just 7-6, which was their worst record since 2010.  Well, they only returned 10 starters this year.  They lost six of their top nine tacklers on defense and aren't very good on that side of the ball, so look for SMU to do whatever it wants offensively.

Plays on a home team (SMU) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in two consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1992.  The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Mustangs are 6-0 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 points or more in their previous game.  Take SMU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -13.5

The Miami Hurricanes are chomping at the bit right now to hit the field.  They haven't played a game since September 2nd due to Hurricane Irma.  It's safe to say they'll be hungry, rested and ready to go when the hit the field Saturday.

The same cannot be said for Toledo, which has played each of the first three weeks and is coming off a barn-burner against Tulsa.  The Rockets won that game 54-51 at home in a back-and-forth affair, and they won't have a whole lot left in the tank to face the Hurricanes here.  I don't think they'll be able to match Miami's energy in this one.

I can't say that Toledo has been all that impressive.  The wins have come against Elon as a 44.5-point favorite, Nevada as an 11-point favorite and Tulsa as a 7-point favorite.  They only beat Nevada by 13, and that's a Nevada team that just lost at home to Idaho State 28-30 as a 32.5-point favorite.  Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State 24-59 and is basically in rebuilding mode.

I really believe Miami is a national title contender this year.  The Hurricanes return 15 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games, including a 31-14 victory over WVU in the bowl game.  They are loaded at running back and receiver, and they have eight starters back from a defense that gave up only 18.5 points per game last year.  This is one of the best defenses in the country.

Miami has feasted on Group of 5 teams in non-conference action in recent years.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in such games over the past three seasons.  They beat FAU 38-10 as 25-point home favorites last year, then crushed a good Appalachian State team 45-10 as only 3-point road favorites.  I think they make easy work of Toledo by two touchdowns or more here at home Saturday.

Mark Richt is 6-0 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of Miami.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last three years.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Roll with Miami Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +28

This is an awful spot for the Tennessee Volunteers.  It's a clear sandwich spot.  They are coming off a deflating 26-20 loss at Florida in which the Gators scored on a hail mary on the final play of the game thanks to a huge breakdown in covered.  Now the Vols have an even bigger game on deck at home against Georgia next week that will likely decide whether or not they are contenders in the SEC East.  The Vols could care less about beating UMass by a margin here.

They'll be more concerned about getting healthy.  Tennessee has already lost four starters to season-ending injury.  They have six more guys who are questionable for Saturday's game.  Don't be surprise to see the Vols take a cautious approach here to try and make sure that they have all hands on deck against Georgia next week.

That's a bad Florida team that Tennessee just lost to, one that was destroyed by Michigan in their opener and one that is missing 10-plus players due to injuries and suspensions.  And Tennessee was extremely fortunate to beat Georgia Tech 42-41 in overtime in their opener.  They were actually outgained by 286 yards by the Yellow Jackets.  I just don't think this Tennessee team is very good.

UMass is the perfect 'buy low' candidate that I like to back this week.  They have started 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS.  But a closer look shows that all four of their losses have come by 10 points or less, so they've been competitive in every game.  They have only been outgained by 3 yards per game on the season despite their 0-4 record.  I backed them last week as 14.5-point dogs at Temple in a 21-29 loss.  They should have won that game outright as they outgained Temple by 71 yards.

Head coach Mark Whipple knows how to coach up an offense, and the Minutemen will score plenty of points to stay within the number against this suspect Tennessee defense.  QB Andrew Ford has been impressive, completing 64.3% of his passes with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  He has three great weapons outside who are all averaging at least 14 yards per receptions and who have at least 17 receptions each on the season in Adam Breneman, Andy Isabella and Sadiq Palmer.

I think the fact that UMass is playing an SEC opponent will help them get back up off the mat from this 0-4 start and put together a competitive performance here Saturday.  Tennessee doesn't give these non-conference opponents much respect, and that showed last year.  They needed overtime to beat Appalachian State as 20-point favorites.  They only beat Ohio by 9 as 27-point favorites as well.  This that Tennessee team was much better than this 2017 version.

Whipple is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of UMass.  The Minutemen are actually winning 35.7 to 29.2 on average in this spot.  The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The Vols are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* Utah/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +3.5

The Arizona Wildcats have the makings of one of the most improved teams in the country from what I've seen thus far.  They have opened 2-1 with a pair of blowout victories and a tough 16-19 loss to Houston.   Holding that Houston offense to only 19 points is no small feat as this defense is clearly way improved.

The Wildcats hung 62 points on Northern Arizona and 63 on UTEP in their two blowout victories.  Brandon Dawkins has a focus this season as a junior that he hasn't had in the past.  He's on a mission to prove his naysayers wrong.  The Arizona quarterback is in charge of a Wildcats offense that is averaging 328 rushing yards per game and 6.5 per carry this season.  They are also completing 66.2% of their passes.

Utah has played three cake opponents.  The Utes only won 37-16 over North Dakota in their opener, then won a hard-fought 19-13 contest at BYU.  That's the same BYU team that lost 27-0 to LSU and 40-6 to Wisconsin, while also barely beating Portland State.  Then the Utes won 54-16 over San Jose State last week, which lost 56-0 to Texas.  The Spartans committed five turnovers to aid the Utes' cause.

Last year in their Pac-12 home opener, the Wildcats took Washington to overtime as 13-point home dogs.  That's a Washington team that ended up winning the Pac-12 and making the four-team playoff.  I think Rich Rodriquez and company want to make a statement here Friday night to let everyone know they won't be pushovers in the Pac-12 this season.

I like the fact that Arizona has had a full week to prepare after playing last Friday, while Utah played on Saturday and will be on short rest.  I also like that Arizona is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Utah in the past five years under Rodriquez.  The Wildcats have outgained the Utes in all five meetings while racking up at least 469 yards in all five games.  That's impressive when you consider Utah is considered one of the better defensive teams in the country year in and year out.  Rodriquez simply has their number.

"They run the zone read as well as anyone in the country," Kyle Whittingham said of the Wildcats. "They have a quarterback that is an exceptional runner. That is exactly what they look for in their quarterback, the ability to be a dual threat. We have struggled with them.  The games we lost, we did not do a good job defending the run. So, that is going to be job No. 1 this week like it is every week."

Whittingham is 11-27 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday games, while the Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last even meetings.  Bet Arizona Friday.

20* Temple/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida -18.5

The South Florida Bulls are one of the top Group of 5 teams along side the San Diego State Aztecs.  One of these teams will likely be playing in a big bowl game at the end of the season.  I think that team is more likely to be the Bulls.

But because South Florida got off to a slow start with lackluster wins over San Jose State and Stony Brook, I think that has them undervalued now.  That showed last week as the Bulls crushed Illinois 47-23 as 16.5-point favorites.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulls even overcame 14 first half penalties alone to put up 680 yards of total offense.

This is a Temple team that I'm way down on this year.  Temple is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls came into the season getting too much love and that is showing early as they are 0-3 ATS.

I backed Notre Dame in Week 1 in a 49-16 throttling of Temple as 20-point favorites.  The Irish outgained the Owls by 276 yards in that contest.  Even more concerning may have been last week's narrow 16-13 win over FCS foe Villanova.  The Owls were outgained by 49 yards by Villanova and probably should have lost.

I then backed UMass +14.5 last week at Temple in a game the Minutmen should have won outright.  They outgained Temple by 71 yards in that contest.  And that's a UMass team that is 0-4 now.  So Temple struggled to put them away, and they have no shot of hanging with a team the class of USF.  This should be Notre Dame 2.0 as Temple gets steamrolled.

Temple won the AAC last year thanks in large part to its 46-30 win over South Florida.  The Bulls certainly have not forgotten, and they beat Temple 44-23 at home in 2015 the last time here.  And you know South Florida is going to bring the offense.  The Bulls have scored 30 or more points in an FBS-best 19 straight games now.

Temple gave up 422 rushing yards to Notre Dame in its opener.  Then it allowed 382 passing to Villanova and 377 passing to UMass.  This clearly isn't the same stout Temple defense that we've seen over the last few years.  That's probably due to losing five of their top six tacklers on that side of the ball.  Their front seven is very weak right now.

The Bulls are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  South Florida is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

15* Texas/USC FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +17

Texas Longhorns fans are dying to get back to their winning ways.  After the failed Charlie Strong experiment, they now have new life in the form of former Houston head coach Tom Herman.  Herman guided Houston to a 22-4 record in his two years there, and now he brings in his innovative offense and a reputation as a great recruiter.

Herman steps into a great situation as Strong did not leave the cupboard bare.  The Longhorns have a whopping 17 returning starters this season.  This team was way better than their 5-7 record would indicate last season.  They went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 18 at Oklahoma State but outgained them by 13 yards, and they lost by 22 at TCU but were only outgained by 80 yards.

This is a Texas offense that improved greatly last season to 31.9 points and 491 yards per game.  Herman is already taking this offense to the next level as the Longhorns have averaged 48.5 points and 548.0 yards per game through their first two contests.  After getting upset 41-51 by a Maryland team that is better than most expected, the Longhorns took out their frustration with a 56-0 shutout victory of San Jose State last week.  I think that is more like the Texas team you can expect moving forward.

USC is in a massive letdown spot here after its 42-24 win over Stanford last week.  The Trojans had that game circled all offseason because the Cardinal had their number in previous years.  Now the betting public is back in love with them, quickly forgetting how poor the Trojans looked in their 49-31 win over Western Michigan the previous week as 28-point favorites.  I think USC is somewhere in between those two performances, but they certainly aren't more than two touchdowns better than Texas.

The 'game of the year' line that came out in June was USC -12.5 over Texas.  That's close to where it should be, though I think it should be around -10.  So we're getting some extra value here with Texas at +17 due to the Maryland loss and how dominant USC looked against Stanford.  We'll take that value and run with it this week.

I know QB Shane Buechele is injured, but I'm not concerned about it.  He is probable but may not play, but I don't think there's much of a difference between him and freshman Sam Ehlinger, who threw for 222 yards in place of Buechele against San Jose State last week.  He didn't take a sack as his mobility got him out of trouble, and he rushed for 48 yards on seven carries as well.  Ehlinger lost his father in 2013, and his maturity is through the roof, so he won't be phased in the national spotlight this weekend.

"From the day I met him, this is an extremely mature guy. You don't go through what he went through ... all of a sudden have to be the man of your household, and not mature very quickly," Herman said. "He's a bit of an old soul. I think that's what has allowed him to step into this role maybe a little bit easier than most."

Texas running back Chris Warren III said after the game that Ehlinger rarely seems rattled: "Sam's a baller. He'll come out and play regardless. I don't think he's the one to get nervous about this kind of stuff.

Now for the good stuff in regard to Texas' head coach.  Tom Herman was an underdog 6 times as Ohio State's offensive coordinator and five times as Houston's coach.  Not only did his teams go a perfect 11-0 ATS in the role of the dog, but they also went 11-0 SU, winning outright all 11 times.  Houston beat the likes of Oklahoma and Louisville last year, and Florida State the year before.  I'm not saying the Longhorns will win outright, but they will give the Trojans a run for their money.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* Clemson/Louisville ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +3.5

The Louisville Cardinals have had this game circled all offseason.  That's because the Cardinals have lost three straight heartbreakers to the Tigers over the last three years.  They lost by 6 on the road in 2014, by 3 at home in 2015, and by 6 on the road in 2017.  They actually outgained the Tigers in two of those three contests.  These players have not forgotten, and they feel like they have some unfinished business coming into this game.

I like the fact that Louisville hasn't exactly looked great in its first two games.  It won 35-28 as 25.5-point road favorites at Purdue, and 47-35 as 11.5-point favorites at North Carolina.  Those were two tricky road games, and you can excuse the Cardinals for just going through the motions knowing that they had this huge game against Clemson coming in Week 3.  Letdowns for Louisville has been a problem under Bobby Petrino, but that won't be the case here given the magnitude of this game.

Clemson won the National Championship and then opened the season 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS, so the betting public is all over this team.  But they opened as 8.5-point favorites against Auburn and were bet down to 6, so they got the cover in a 14-6 win last week against the closing line.  It was a shaky performance against an Auburn team that is way overrated.  And now after slugging it out with Auburn last week, that makes this is a very difficult situation for the Tigers having to try and chase around a speedy, athletic team like Louisville.

Lamar Jackson is the most electrifying player in college football.  He won the Heisman Trophy last year in large part because he had a huge game against this Clemson defense last year in a game the Cardinals arguably should have won.  Jackson led Louisville to 568 total yards against Clemson.  He threw for 295 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 162 yards and two scores.

Although the last two games for Louisville were reasonably close on the scoreboard, they weren't in the box score.  The Cardinals outgained Purdue by 180 yards and UNC by 304 yards.  Jackson accounted for 542 yards and 6 total touchdowns in that win over UNC, proving that he's once again in Heisman form coming into this one.

Dabo Swinney is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Clemson.  Petrino is 45-25 ATS at home in his career as a head coach.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992.  Take Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -13.5

Oregon went 4-8 last season and Mark Helfrich was fired.  This was a Ducks team that had won at least 9 games in the regular season in eight straight seasons from 2008 through 2015.  So it was an aberration, and I expect them to get back to their winning ways under Willie Taggart.

Taggart has had success right away in his two previous stops at Western Kentucky and South Florida.  He guided the Bulls to an 11-2 record last season, and we've seen them be sluggish without him thus far in 2017.  It was a USF team that scored 30 or more points in 16 straight games dating back to 2015, so he is an offensive genius.

Now Taggart has inherited an Oregon team that returned 17 starters this season.  The offense was expected to be potent with QB Justin Herbert, RB Royce Freeman and the top two receivers returning, and that has proven to be the case thus far.  The Ducks are already averaging 59.5 points, 635 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play through two games against Southern Utah and Nebraska.

New defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt is a no-nonsense guy who was responsible for Colorado's turnaround on defense over the last two seasons.  He will make a big difference in getting the most out of this Oregon defense as the season progresses.

Many will see the final score being 42-35 last week against Nebraska and think it was a close game.  But it wasn't at all. Oregon rolled to a 42-14 halftime lead, then failed to show up in the second half and was outscored 21-0 after intermission.  The Ducks outgained the Cornhuskers 566 to 361, or by 205 yards.  The defense forced four turnovers and played well.

But that poor second half is going to work in our favor this week.  It is keeping this line lower than it should be, and you can bet that Taggart has let his players have it all week in practice for that poor finish.  They'll show up with a more determined, focused mindset as a result.

Wyoming gets a lot of hype because of QB Josh Allen, who could be the first QB taken in next year's NFL draft.  But this offense has really underwhelmed thus far.  They lost 3-24 at Iowa, amassing just 233 total yards while committing two turnovers.  They only managed 393 total yards in a 27-0 win over Gardner Webb as 38.5-point favorites.  Iowa even committed four turnovers and still won by 21 points, and Oregon is a better team than Iowa.

Taggart is 31-9 ATS in all road games as a head coach.  I think this line is lower than it should be because it's a road game and all the talk about altitude in Laramie, Wyoming.  But Oregon players are used to high altitude venues in Colorado and Utah and have done well their in the recent past.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 6.4 or more yards/play, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Herbert, who is completing 78% of his passes with a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio thus far, will lead the Ducks to an easy win and cover in Wyoming this weekend.  Take Oregon Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +7

It's almost a given that Mississippi State is picked to finish last in the SEC West by basically every major publication heading into the season.  And it's also a given that Mississippi State doesn't finish last under Dan Mullen.  He always gets the most out of his players, and the job he's doing in Starksville is one of the most underrated in the country.

Mullen has now taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in seven consecutive seasons.  The job he did the last two years getting them to 9-4 in 2015 and 6-7 in 2016 was impressive.  They had just seven starters back in '15 and only 10 starters back in '16.

But now Mullen has one of his more experienced teams in 2017 with 13 starters back.  QB Nick Fitzgerald did a great job of filling Dak Prescott's shoes once he took over as a sophomore last year.  He threw for 2,423 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,375 yards and 16 scores.  He is clearly one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the SEC.

Mississippi State opened its season with a dominant 49-0 victory over Charleston Southern as 21.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 27.5 points.  The Bulldogs outgained them 555 to 33, or by 522 total yards.  Holding any team to just 33 yards of offense is impressive, I don't care the opponent, and it's a sign that this defense should be one of the most improved in the land after giving up 31.8 points per game last year.  Mullen's defenses hadn't allowed more than 23.3 points per game in any season dating back to 2010.

I rolled Mississippi State last week, and they delivered in a 57-21 beat down as 10.5-point favorites at Louisiana Tech, covering by 25.5 points.  And the markets just haven't caught up with how good this team really is.  The Bulldogs are now catching a touchdown at home against the LSU Tigers.

The betting public is going to be on LSU in this one, but we're not falling for the trap.  This has been a very tight series over the last three years with all three meetings decided by 5 points or less.  Mississippi State won 34-29 as 7-point dogs at LSU in 2014, lost 19-21 as 3-point home dogs in 2015, and lost 20-23 as 13-point road dogs in 2016.  I could easily see this game decided by less than a TD once again with the Bulldogs having a legitimate shot to win outright.

Dan Mullen is a perfect 8-0 ATS off two straight non-conference games as the coach of Mississippi State having never lost.  Plays against road favorites (LSU) - excellent rushing team (230-plus RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/G), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane +34.5

Willie Fritz put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015.  He took the job at Tulane knowing it would be a rebuilding process, and Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8.  Fritz brought his spread option offense to Tulane in '16 but did not have the right personnel to run it.  Now he does.

Fritz welcomes back 16 starters this season.  He recruited his type of of QB to run the spread option in Jonathan Banks, who is a perfect fit.  The dress rehearsal went well in Week 1 in a 43-14 win over Grambling as 22-point favorites, covering the spread by 7 points.  They jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead before coasting to the finish.  Banks went 10-of-15 passing for 185 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 69 yards and a score on 16 carries.

I took Tulane as my free pick last Saturday and they covered with ease as 13.5-point dogs in a 21-23 loss at Navy.  That was even with Banks getting hurt in the second quarter and sitting out the rest of the game.  Sophomore Johnathan Brantley has a similar skill set, and he ripped off a 42-yard gain on an option the first time he kept the ball, setting up his first career touchdown one play later.

Brantley finished the game as the Green Wave's leading rusher with 73 yards on nine attempts.  He also completed 5-of-8 passes for 58 yards in the win.  Brantley is expected to get the start Saturday with Banks likely to be available off the bench.  Either way, I think Tulane has what it takes to stay within five touchdowns of Oklahoma.

This is an awful spot for Oklahoma.  The Sooners are coming off a shocking 31-16 upset victory at Ohio State on ABC last Saturday night.  Baker Mayfield planted the OU flag on the 50-yard line after the win, and later talked about how the Sooners responded to being disrespected.  After earning their respect, I am 100% certain they will fall flat on their faces this week against Tulane.  They won't bring the kind of focus it's going to take to put Tulane away by five touchdowns or more.  They'll be looking ahead to their Big 12 opener next week at Baylor as well.

Tulane is one of the few teams in the AAC that actually plays defense, too.  The Green Wave are only giving up 275 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through two games.  They held a potent Navy attack to just 326 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  This is a Navy team that rushes for over 300 yards almost every week, yet they held the Midshipmen to just 194 yards on 52 attempts, or an average of 3.7 yards per carry.  Stopping the run will be key late in this game as Oklahoma tries to sit on a lead.

Fritz is 11-2 ATS in the month of September in all games he has coached.  His system is so tough to prepare for with the spread option.  Oklahoma won't be focused all week after that huge win, and I expect their preparation to be lacking.  That will allow Tulane to catch them by surprise and score enough points to make this one more interesting than the oddsmakers are anticipating.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

15* UMass/Temple CFB Friday No-Brainer on UMass +14.5

The UMass Minutemen returned 15 starters this season and should have been improved after their 2-10 disaster last year.  But instead they've opened 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS, making them the perfect 'buy low' candidate heading into their 4th game of the season.

It's not like UMass hasn't been competitive, either.  They lost in the closing minutes to Hawaii, and all three of their losses have come by 10 points or less.  They have only been outgained by 84 yards on the season as well.  I think they'll remain competitive today, especially against their 'big brother' in Temple as they are looking to pull the upset.

This is a Temple team that I'm way down on this year.  Tempe is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls came into the season getting too much love and are way overvalued here.

I backed Notre Dame in Week 1 in a 49-16 throttling of Temple as 20-point favorites.  The Irish outgained the Owls by 276 yards in that contest.  Even more concerning may have been last week's narrow 16-13 win over FCS foe Villanova.  The Owls were outgained by 49 yards by Villanova and probably should have lost.  I'm not quite sure after those two performances how the Owls can be favored by more than two touchdowns here.

These teams played two years ago, and Temple only won 25-23 as 13.5-point favorites over UMass.  That was a much better Temple team than the 2017 edition.  I expect the Minutemen to give the Owls a run for their money once again here.  Take UMass Friday.

15* New Mexico/Boise State ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 59

The Boise State Broncos are likely to be without starter Brett Rypien today after he suffered a concussion against Washington State last week.  They fell apart after he went out and Kansas reject Montell Cozart took over for him.  Cozart had a costly pick-6 late in that game which aided in Boise blowing a 21-point lead, eventually losing 44-47 in triple-overtime.

Boise State has played two very strong offensive teams up to this point, and the defense has played tremendously.  In games against Troy and Washington State, the Broncos' D has only allowed a total of 20 points at the end of regulation.  The problem is the offense has given more points (21) than the defense has.  The offense has allowed two pick 6's and a fumble return for a TD.

So it's clear that the Broncos have an elite defense, and they will shut down this New Mexico offense.  The Lobos primarily run the football, and the Broncos have only allowed 49 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry through their first two contests.  That makes this an excellent matchup for them.

With Cozart likely to be running the offense, look for the Broncos to go with a more conservative, ground-based attack.  And New Mexico has held its own against the run this season, too.  It is allowing just 53 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry through its first two contests.  I think points will be hard to come by in this one, which is why I'm on the UNDER 59 here.

Boise State is 7-0 to the UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Brian Harsin is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of the Broncos.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on New Mexico State +7.5

I was very impressed with New Mexico State's Week 1 effort at Pac-12 foe Arizona State.  The Aggies arguably outplayed the Sun Devils in their 31-37 loss at 26-point road dogs.  They outgained them 549 to 400, or by 149 total yards, so it was no fluke that they nearly pulled off the upset.

This is a New Mexico State team that is one of the most experienced in the Sun Belt as they returned 20 starters.  They have nine back on defense, and perhaps the most impressive part about the ASU game is that they held them to just 79 rushing yards on 40 carries, or an average of 2.0 per carry.

That's going to be huge going up against a New Mexico team that relies exclusively on the run to move the football.  The Lobos rushed for 350 yards per game last year and rushed for 259 in their 38-14 opening win over Abilene Christian as 34-point favorites, failing to cover the number by 10 points.

I have the Lobos pegged as a team that will regress big-time following their surprising 9-4 campaign last year.  They go from having 15 starters back last season to just 10 starters returning in 2017.  Their defense is a mess with only three starters back.  They lose eight of their top nine tacklers on D, and this explosive NMSU offense that put up 549 yards against ASU should do whatever they want to against this New Mexico D.

New Mexico State is 3-0 ATS against New Mexico the last three years.  They won 32-31 as 11-point home dogs in 2016, lost 38-29 as 10.5-point road dogs in 2015, and lost 35-38 as 4-point home dogs in 2014.  Now this is the first time in a long time that I actually think NMSU has the better team in this in-state rivalry, and I think that will show on the football field Saturday as they likely win outright.  Getting 7.5 points is just an added bonus.

Bob Davie is 5-15 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points in all games he has coached.  The Lobos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State -8

It's almost a given that Mississippi State is picked to finish last in the SEC West by basically every major publication heading into the season.  And it's also a given that Mississippi State doesn't finish last under Dan Mullen.  He always gets the most out of his players, and the job he's doing in Starksville is one of the most underrated in the country.

Mullen has now taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in seven consecutive seasons.  The job he did the last two years getting them to 9-4 in 2015 and 6-7 in 2016 was impressive.  They had just seven starters back in '15 and only 10 starters back in '16.

But now Mullen has one of his more experienced teams in 2017 with 13 starters back.  QB Nick Fitzgerald did a great job of filling Dak Prescott's shoes once he took over as a sophomore last year.  He threw for 2,423 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,375 yards and 16 scores.  He is clearly one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the SEC.

Mississippi State opened its season with a dominant 49-0 victory over Charleston Southern as 21.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 27.5 points.  The Bulldogs outgained them 555 to 33, or by 522 total yards.  Holding any team to just 33 yards of offense is impressive, I don't care the opponent, and it's a sign that this defense should be one of the most improved in the land after giving up 31.8 points per game last year.  Mullen's defenses hadn't allowed more than 23.3 points per game in any season dating back to 2010.

Louisiana Tech went 9-5 last year and finished 2nd in Conference USA.  Skip Holtz is doing a fine job down in Ruston, but he has his hands full in 2017.  Only 11 starters return and they lose all of their top playmakers on offense, and each of their top three tacklers on defense.

The losses on offense are enormous.  QB Ryan Higgins is gone after throwing for 4,617 yards with 41 touchdowns against eight interceptions.  Two receivers who combined for 3,300-plus yards are gone to the NFL in Trent Taylor (136 receptions, 1,803 yards, 12 TD) and Carlos Henderson (82, 1,535, 19 TD).  You just don't replace that type of production.

LA Tech had a cake opponent in Week 1 and beat Northwestern State 52-24 as 39.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 11.5 points.  But this was a much closer game than the final score.  This game was tied 28-28 with one minute left in the 3rd quarter before LA Tech scored 28 points in the final 16 minutes to pull away.  They only outgained NW State by 108 total yards despite that frantic finish.

LA Tech even had two non-offensive TD's in that game with a 66-yard punt return and a 26-yard fumble scoop and score.  The new QB is J'Mar Smith, and he wasn't very sharp as he completed just 18-of-35 (51.4%) of his passes in the win.  He's going to have to be way more efficient if LA Tech has any shot against Mississippi State, and I don't believe he will be.

Mississippi State is 12-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* South Carolina/Missouri SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri -2.5

The Missouri Tigers won the SEC East in 2013 and '14 before going 5-7 and then 4-8 the past two seasons, respectively.  I think their talent level is somewhere in between those results, and they are prime bounce back candidates in 2017.

Barry Odom stepped into a rough situation in his first season last year with just 10 returning starters.  They had key injuries on defense that resulted in them going from giving up 16.2 points per game in '15 to 31.5 points per game in '16.  This defense is likely to be improved, especially with Odom colling the shots as their former defensive coordinator.

As much as the Tigers regressed on defense last year, their offense took an even bigger step forward from 13.6 points per game and 281 yards per game in '15 to 31.4 points per game and 501 yards per game in '16.  This offense will be one of the best in the country in 2017 with 10 returning starters after having just three starters back on offense last year.  QB Drew Lock is an elite talent who has all five starting offensive linemen back.

This offense had arguably the most impressive performance of any team in Week 1, racking up 72 points and 815 total yards against Missouri State.  They rushed for 294 yards and passed for 521 to show off their balance.  I think they keep rolling on that side of the ball against South Carolina today.

South Carolina was fortunate to make a bowl game last year.  They went 6-7 and all six of their wins came by 13 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  That included a 6-point home win over UMass, a 5-point home win over East Carolina and a 13-point home win over Western Carolina.  Simply put, they weren't that good.

But the Gamecocks pulled off a big upset in Week 1 with a 35-28 win as 8-point dogs over NC State.  Now they are getting too much love heading into Week 2.  But they were dominated in the box score in that game and should have lost.  NC State actually outgained South Carolina 504 to 246, or by 258 total yards.  You won't find many teams that win games when they get outgained by that kind of margin.

The home team has won both meetings over the last two seasons.  Missouri won 24-10 at home in 2016, while South Carolina won 31-21 at home last year.  But the Tigers actually outgained the Gamecocks 465 to 428 in that game last year, so they showed what their offense could do against that defense.  Don't be surprised to see the Tigers rack up 600-plus yards in this one.  The Tigers are 28-6 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rutgers -5

Chris Ash enters his second season at Rutgers.  His first was a forgetful one as injuries really decimated this team.  But now they return 14 starters, add in Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin (played in 17 games at Louisville) at QB, get two stud Miami transfers at WR, and get back a healthy Janarion Grant after he missed eight games last year.  Grant may be the most talented receiver in the entire conference and is a 3-time All-Conference returner.

The biggest improvement may come from a defense that gave up 37.5 points per game last year.  This is a unit that brings back eight starters and 10 of the top 13 tacklers from a year ago.  This really should be one of the most improved teams in the country, especially from a competitive standpoint if it doesn't necessarily show up in the win column.

That came to fruition in Week 1 as I backed Rutgers as +28 dogs to Washington, and they gave the Huskies all they wanted in a 14-30 defeat.  They held that explosive Washington offense to just 368 total yards and were only outgained by 59 yards in that contest.    Bolin threw two costly picks in his own territory that really decided the game, but overall he was efficient completing 24-of-35 passes in the loss.

Eastern Michigan was a nice story last year.  After going 7-41 in their previous four seasons, including 3-29 in MAC play, the Eagles managed to make a bowl game and finish 7-5 on the season.  But five of their seven wins came by a touchdown or less, and the only exceptions were Charlotte and Mississippi Valley State.

EMU opened with a 24-7 win over that terrible Charlotte team that is one of the worst in the FBS.  Now the Eagles take a big step up in class here against a Big Ten opponent that will have more talent than them at almost every position.  The Eagles are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers for what they did last year as only 5-point dogs in this true road game.

The Eagles are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a home win.  The Eagles are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win.  Rutgers will be hungry to taste victory following 10 consecutive losses dating back to  a 37-28 home win over New Mexico in their 3rd game last season.  That was a New Mexico team that went 9-4 last year.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Fresno State +44

The Fresno State Bulldogs went just 1-11 last year and aren't getting any love heading into 2017.  These are the types of teams I like backing early, especially when you consider how much potential the Bulldogs have.  They went 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, so they weren't nearly as bad as their record.

New head coach Jeff Tedford stepped into a good situation.  He inherits 16 returning starters and will get the most out of them.  This is a guy that had a lot of success at California, where he went 82-57 in 11 seasons there.  He is now re-energized and ready to tackle this new challenge.

Teford is an offensive guru, and he has 10 returning starters to work with on that side of the ball.  This offense had an impressive dress rehearsal against Incarnate Word.  They won 66-0 as 35-point favorites to cover the number by 31 points.  The offense racked up 613 total yards, while the defense held them to 148 yards, outgaining them by 465 yards for the game.

Nick Saban rarely covers these big numbers in non-conference games.  He has a propensity to take his starters out as early as possibly to save them.  I think that will especially be the case after the defense lost a couple key linebackers to injury in the 24-7 win over Florida State last week.  That also makes this a letdown spot for the Crimson Tide after that huge win over the Seminoles.

Alabama wasn't as dominant as that 24-7 final would indicate.  It only outgained FSU 269 to 250, but the difference was three turnovers by the Seminoles.  The offense struggled in averaging just 4.5 yards per play.  Alabama doesn't have the type of explosive offense that is built to cover 44-point spreads.  And Fresno State does have the talent on offense to put up a score or two, which will help them stay within this massive number.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (FRESNO ST) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Fresno State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -7

I just believe that that the Michigan State Spartans were massively underrated heading into 2017 after their shocking 3-9 disaster last season.  Mark Dantonio does his best work with his back against the wall, and he'll have the Spartans exceeding expectations now this year.

The Spartans got off to a great start in Week 1 with a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green as 17-point favorites.  They even lost the turnover battle three to one and still won by 25, outgaining the Falcons 465 to 212 in the process.  It was a dominant effort and one that has me excited about this team moving forward.

Western Michigan is a team I'm way down on.  They lost head coach PJ Fleck to Minnesota, and their all-time leading passer and all-time leading receiver.  They only have 12 starters back this year and are way overvalued after going 13-1 last season.

But Western Michigan had a good showing in Week 1, only losing 31-49 at USC as 28-point dogs to cover the spread.  However, I think that was a bad spot for USC as they were looking ahead to their big showdown with Stanford this week.  WMU gave a big effort, while USC simply showed up.

Now this is a tall task for WMU to go on the road for a second straight week to take on another big Power 5 program like Michigan State.  And the Broncos are getting too much line respect for their effort against USC as they are currently being tabbed as only 7-point underdogs.  I look for the Spartans to roll them here as they have better talent all over the field, and they aren't going to be overlooking them because they have a chip on their shoulder after last year.

Michigan State is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games after allowing 225 or fewer total yards in its previous game.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +16.5

Lance Leipold took over a rebuilding team when he got to Buffalo two years ago.  They had only 10 starters back in 2015 and went 5-7, and they had only 11 starters back last year and went 2-10.  Now Leipold enters his 3rd season, which is where head coaches usually make their biggest imprint on the program.  Leipold has his most experienced team yet with 14 returning starters, and almost all of the players playing significant minutes will be his recruits now.

Quarterback Tyree Jackson got his feet wet as a freshman last year and held his own.  He threw for 1,772 yards with nine touchdowns and nine picks, while also rushing for 399 yards and five scores.  He'll be much better as a sophomore behind an offensive line that returns four starters and 68 career starts.

The defense should be way better with eight starters and each of the top six tacklers back.  That was on display in Week 1 as Buffalo gave Minnesota all it wanted in a 7-17 road loss as 21.5-point dogs.  They held a potent Minnesota rushing attack to just 169 yards on 51 carries (3.3/carry).  That's key because they're now up against the triple-option attack of Army.

Army is way overvalued off a stunning 8-5 season last year, especially the way that they finished.  They upset Navy for their first win in 14 tries in the series, then beat North Texas in their bowl game.  Now they opened 2017 up with a 64-6 win over FCS foe Fordham, and the love for the Black Knights is just too much right now.  They shouldn't be laying 16.5 points to Buffalo.

These teams matched up last year with Buffalo actually pulling off the 23-20 upset as 13-point home dogs.  I realize Army will want revenge, but they can still get it without covering the spread.  I expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in this one, which clearly favors the big road dog.  Each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  Take Buffalo Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/South Alabama ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma State -28

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past decade under Mike Gundy.  They have won at least seven games in 10 straight seasons, and 9 or more games in seven of their last nine.

The Cowboys are legitimate Big 12 contenders in 2017.  They went 10-3 last year, and it should have been 11-2 because the refs robbed them of a win in the Central Michigan game.  They beat Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl and come into this season with big expectations and a lot of confidence.

Their offense will be one of the best in the country.  It's led by QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 4,091 yards with 28 touchdowns and only four interceptions last year.  Justice Hill (1,187 yards, 6 TD) is back to lead the rushing attack, as are the top two receivers in James Washington (71 receptions, 1,380 yards, 10 TD) and Jalen McCleskey (73, 812, 7 TD).

I backed Oklahoma State as 17.5-point favorites over Tulsa in Week 1, and they delivered with a 59-24 victory.  That offense was in midseason form, racking up 640 total yards on the Golden Hurricane.  They held Tulsa's potent offense attack to just 4.4 yards per play in the win, while averaging 10.2 yards per play on offense.

Now they're up against an even worse team in South Alabama, which is no more than a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team.  The Jaguars did cover as 21.5-point dogs in a 27-47 loss at Ole Miss in Week 1, which is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But that game wasn't nearly that close.

Ole Miss actually led South Alabama 47-13 with nine minutes left in the 4th quarter.  But the Jaguars tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final nine minutes to get the back door cover.  So Ole Miss was up 34 on them, and that's a Rebels team that had all kinds of offseason issues and distractions with the firing of Hugh Freeze.  Oklahoma State is on a different level than Ole Miss.

South Alabama allowed 28-of-35 passing for 429 yards to Ole Miss quarterbacks.  So you can just imagine the kind of night that Rudolph, Washington and company are going to have against this Jaguars defense.  They should hang 50-plus on them, which will be enough to cover this spread.

Oklahoma State is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games after scoring 50 or more points in its previous game.  South Alabama is 0-7 ATS off an ATS win over the last three seasons.  The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in after game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Take these combined 14-0 systems straight to the bank tonight.  Bet Oklahoma State Friday.

15* Tennessee/GA Tech ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3

Expectations were high in Tennessee last year.  Many expected them to win the SEC East.  They won their key game against Florida, but were upset by South Carolina and Vanderbilt to really blow it down the stretch.  Now everyone is off the Tennessee bandwagon, and I think there is value with them in the early going because of it, especially as only 3-point favorites here against Georgia Tech.

Butch Jones had guided the Vols to back-to-back 9-4 seasons.  That is great at most players, but the fans want more, and Jones isn't shying away from it.  He has consistently delivered Top 10 recruiting classes over the past few seasons, so the talent is clearly there.

Now Tennessee actually has plenty of talent and experience back.  They have 14 starters back, and that doesn't even include all of the players that saw significant minutes on defense last year due to injuries.  This is a defense that returns eight of the top nine tacklers from a year ago and will be one of the most improved units in the country.

Offensively, replacing QB Josh Dobbs will be tough, but he didn't meet expectations last year.  Jarrett Guarantanta is the 9th best QB recruit in the country, and Quinten Dormandy is the 19th, so Jones has some options here even if the competition goes into Week 1.  The offensive line returns four of five starters and 111 career starts and should be one of the best units in the SEC.

Georgia Tech had a surprising 9-4 season last year after going just 3-9 in 2015.  But that was a bit of a mirage.  The Yellow Jackets went 4-4 in ACC play despite getting outgained by 85.5 yards per game against conference opponents.  They went 3-1 in games decided by a TD or less.  They only gained 387 yards per game offensively while giving up 402 per game defensively.  Those aren't numbers you normally see from a 9-4 team.

The Yellow Jackets do return 16 starters this year and will be good, but they lose their best player in QB Justin Thomas. He was the best passing quarterback that Paul Johnson has ever had running the triple-option.  Now the job goes to Matthew Jordan, who only completed 33.3 percent of his passes in limited action last year.  He also only averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

Plays against any team (GEORGIA TECH) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS since 1992. The Vols have had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which is a huge advantage for facing a team like Georgia Tech.  Take Tennessee Monday.

20* Texas A&M/UCLA FOX Sunday No-Brainer on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins are one of my favorite bounce-back candidates of 2017.  I think they can make a serious run in the Pac-12.  They had won 9, 10, 10 and 8 games in Jim Mora's first four seasons before bottoming out at 4-8 last year.  Now they are flying under the radar heading into 2017.

UCLA had a lot go wrong last year.  They opened 3-3 and were three plays away from being 6-0.  Then star QB Josh Rosen got hurt and their season spiraled out of control.  They finished 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, which was simply bad luck.

But now Rosen is back healthy and he's among 15 returning starters, including nine on offense.  This will be one of the most improved offenses in the country after scoring just 24.9 points per game last year.  Mora has done a tremendous job in recruiting and that talent will get them back to 8-plus wins this season.

Texas A&M only had 12 starters back this season.  The Aggies lose QB Trevor Knight and four of their top five receivers from last year.  The defense loses No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, who were arguably the top DE tandem in the country.

UCLA is going to want revenge after losing a 24-31 thriller at Texas A&M last season.  The Bruins were only outgained 442 to 468 in that contest.  Now the Bruins get to host the Aggies this time around, and I think they should be closer to TD favorites than a FG here.

Texas A&M is 15-35 ATS in its last 50 games as a road dog, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 as a road dog of 7 points or less.  UCLA is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 non-conference home games.  Plays on home teams (UCLA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -18

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish were picked by many to be a playoff contender last year.  They fell flat on their faces and went just 4-8.  Now nobody is talking about Notre Dame heading into 2017, and those are the teams I like to back early in the season.

Notre Dame was clearly better than its 4-8 record.  The Fighting Irish went a college football-worst 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year, which was simply bad luck.  With Brian Kelly on the hot season, he will have his team ready to go heading into this opener against Temple.

Conversely, Tempe is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls come in way overvalued here.

The Fighting Irish were in a rebuilding year last year when you look back because they only had eight starters returning.  But now they have 15 starters back in 2017.  This is a team that won 10 games when they had 16 starters back in 2015.  I think they will make a run at 10 wins again this season as this is clearly one of the most talented teams in the country.

Plays on home favorites (NOTRE DAME) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS since 1992.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +31

The Penn State Nittany Lions have the feel of a 'flavor of the month' team heading into 2017.  That's because they closed last season by 9-1 in their last 10 games with their only loss to USC in the Rose Bowl by a final of 49-52 in a game they arguably should have won.  They came out of nowhere to win the Big Ten.

Now expectations are clearly high as the Nittany Lions come in ranked No. 6 in the country.  You won't be getting any discounts backing them this year, and that's evident with this opening line.  Penn State is a ridiculous 31-point favorite over Akron.

I take a look at the last couple seasons and find that Penn State has played a MAC team early in the year each of the last five seasons.  It hasn't fared very well.  The Nittany Lions beat Kent State 33-13 as 22-point favorites in 2016, Buffalo 27-14 as 17-point favorites in 2015, Akron 21-3 as 14-point favorites in 2014, Eastern Michigan 45-7 as 24-point favorites in 2013, and actually lost to Ohio 14-24 as 6-point favorites in 2012.

Akron is going to be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  The Zips went 5-7 in a rebuilding year last season with only seven returning starters.  That came after they went 8-5 in 2015 with 12 returning starters.

Terry Bowden is arguably the best coach in the MAC now.  He has done a tremendous job in recruiting some transfers from major schools like Ohio State, Miami, Pitt, Rutgers, Virginia and Nebraska.  And now Bowden has his most experienced team since he took over at Akron six years ago.

The Zips return 15 starters and 57 lettermen this year.  They are the 27th-most experienced team in the country.  Senior QB Thomas Woodson is back after completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 2,079 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions last year.  Four starters are back along the offensive line, and each of the top four tacklers and seven starters return on defense.

Woodson missed four games last year and had offseason shoulder surgery.  He is back healthy, as is running back Warren Ball, a 2016 Ohio State graduate transfer who was injured in the second game of the season and received a medical redshirt.

Penn State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 28.5 to 35 points.  Roll with Akron Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -18.5

Texas Longhorns fans are dying to get back to their winning ways.  After the failed Charlie Strong experiment, they now have new life in the form of former Houston head coach Tom Herman.  Herman guided Houston to a 22-4 record in his two years there, and now he brings in his innovative offense and a reputation as a great recruiter.

Herman steps into a great situation as Strong did not leave the cupboard bare.  The Longhorns have a whopping 17 returning starters this season.  This team was way better than their 5-7 record would indicate last season.  They went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 18 at Oklahoma State but outgained them by 13 yards, and they lost by 22 at TCU but were only outgained by 80 yards.

This is a Texas offense that improved greatly last season to 31.9 points and 491 yards per game.  Now they have seven starters back, including QB Shane Buechele, who  got his feet wet as a freshman last year.  He completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,958 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.  Buechele has his top three receivers back and four starters and 75 career starts along the offensive line.  Offensive coordinator Tim Beck replaced Herman at Ohio State and spent the last two years calling the offense for the Buckeyes.

Strong wasn't able to put his imprint on the defense during his time here, which was a huge surprise.  But now the Longhorns should have their best defense in years with 10 starters and each of the top eight tacklers back.  Herman brings defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him from Houston, where he guided two great defenses for the Cougars over the last two years.

Maryland went 6-7 last year in DJ Durkin's first season.  The six wins came against Howard, FIU, UCF, Purdue, Michigan State and Rutgers.  Only one of those teams made a bowl game, which was 6-7 UCF.  The Terrapins went 1-7 against bowl teams, and they were consistently overmatched.  They lost by 24 to Penn State, by 21 to Minnesota, by 56 to Michigan, by 59 to Ohio State and by 21 to Nebraska.  Texas is in the class of many of those teams.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Washington/Rutgers FS1 Friday No-Brainer on Rutgers +27.5

I was big on the Washington Huskies last year.  I predicted they'd win the Pac-12 and make the four-team playoff, and they did just that.  But now they are no longer flying under the radar after their 12-2 season, and they aren't as talented as they were a year ago.  They come in ranked No. 8 in the country with the spotlight now squarely on them.

Washington goes from having 15 starters back last year to 13 this year.  They lose key players to the NFL, including WR John Ross and S Budda Baker.  Don't get me wrong, this team still has QB Jake Browning, RB Myles Gaskin and plenty of talent to win the Pac-12, but they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

I think that's evident when you look at the point spread compared to last year against Rutgers.  Washington was a 25-point home favorite over Rutgers last year, but now they are a 27.5-point road favorite this time around.  And Washington won't be as good, while Rutgers will certainly be improved.

Chris Ash enters his second season at Rutgers.  His first was a forgetful one as injuries really decimated this team.  But now they return 14 starters, add in Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin (played in 17 games at Louisville) at QB, get two stud Miami transfers at WR, and get back a healthy Janarion Grant after he missed eight games last year.  Grant may be the most talented receiver in the entire conference and is a 3-time All-Conference returner.

The biggest improvement may come from a defense that gave up 37.5 points per game last year.  This is a unit that brings back eight starters and 10 of the top 13 tacklers from a year ago.  This really should be one of the most improved teams in the country, especially from a competitive standpoint if it doesn't necessarily show up in the win column.

Washington did beat Rutgers 48-13 last year to cover that 25-point spread.  However, a look at the stats shows the game was much closer than the final score.  The Huskies only outgained the Scarlet Knights 380 to 304 in that game, or by 76 total yards.  The difference was two return touchdowns by the Huskies, one on a kickoff and one on a punt.  That's unlikely to happen again.  Rutgers also had 21 first downs to just 17 for Washington.  The Scarlet Knights turned the ball over three times as well.

It's also worth noting that the Huskies are going to be without two starting LB's in Azeem Victor and DJ Beavers, who combined for 107 tackles a year ago.  Washington is 3-12 SU in its last 15 true road openers.  The Huskies are 1-9 SU in their last 10 non-conference road games vs. Power 5 teams.  Bet Rutgers Friday.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma State -17.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past decade under Mike Gundy.  They have won at least seven games in 10 straight seasons, and 9 or more games in seven of their last nine.

The Cowboys are legitimate Big 12 contenders in 2017.  They went 10-3 last year, and it should have been 11-2 because the refs robbed them of a win in the Central Michigan game.  They beat Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl and come into this season with big expectations and a lot of confidence.

Their offense will be one of the best in the country.  It's led by QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 4,091 yards with 28 touchdowns and only four interceptions last year.  Justice Hill (1,187 yards, 6 TD) is back to lead the rushing attack, as are the top two receivers in James Washington (71 receptions, 1,380 yards, 10 TD) and Jalen McCleskey (73, 812, 7 TD).

Tulsa is coming off one of the best seasons in school history at 10-3 last year.  They posted that record despite giving up 29.8 points and 426 yards per game defensively.  That defense will take another step back with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top four tacklers.

The Golden Hurricane were able to overcome those defensive deficiencies by scoring 42.5 points per game and averaging 527 yards per game offensively.  However, major regression can be expected on this side of the ball due to the massive losses at the playmaker positions.

The Golden Hurricane lose their all-time leading passer in QB Dane Evans (11,680 yards), two 1,000-yard receivers in Keevan Lucas (81, 1,180, 15 TD) and Josh Atkinson (78, 1,058, 8 TD) and leading rusher James Flanders (1,661 yards, 18 TD).  It will simply be impossible to replace that kind of production.

I think losing that early game to Central Michigan last year will have Oklahoma State more focused heading into the 2017 opener.  They won't be taking Tulsa lightly at all.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Mike Gundy is 58-33 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

20* Rice/Stanford 2017 CFB Season Opener on Rice +31

This is a rare non-conference rematch from the previous season.  Rice and Stanford played each other in the final week of the regular season.  Stanford won 41-17, failing to cover as 35-point home favorites in a 24-point win.

So the Owls are already familiar with the Cardinal and only lost by 24 on the road.  Now they get to play them in their first game of 2017 and on a neutral field in Sydney, Australia this time around.  I see no reason they shouldn't be able to stay within 24 again, let alone 31, which is the spread for this rematch.

Rice is going to improved from last year's 3-9 campaign.  The Owls had a very young team and were decimated by injuries.  This year they have 15 starters back and will be mostly a junior/senior laden team.  David Bailiff is on the hot seat and he does his best work when little is expected of him.

I like the way the Owls finished the season last year, going 3-0 ATS in their final three games.  They easily could have quit after their 1-8 start, but managed to go 2-1 in those last three.  They won 22-21 at Charlotte as 12-point dogs, thumped UTEP 44-24 as 1-point home favorites, and then obviously covered as 35-point dogs in that 17-41 loss at Stanford.

Stanford is going to be a contender in the Pac-12 this season, just as they are year in and year out.  But they did lose their two best players from last year in Christian McCaffrey and Solomon Thomas, who are both once-in-a-generation type players.  The loss of McCaffrey is absolutely huge because he provided most of their offense over the past two seasons.

Stanford plays a Big Ten style.  They will beat you up physically, but they won't blow the doors off and run up the score.  They are a ball control team, which makes it tough for them to cover massive spreads like this one.  And I think this is actually a tough spot for the Cardinal because they have their biggest game of the season against USC on deck, and they could be overlooking Rice, while also finding it hard to be focused in a foreign country here.

The Owls are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* Clemson/Alabama National Championship Rematch on Clemson +7

Clemson survived some scares early on in the season, and I think the 42-43 loss to Pitt awoke this team. The Tigers have gone on to win their last four games in dominant fashion with a 22-point win at Wake Forest, a 49-point win over rival South Carolina, a 42-35 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship and that 31-0 shutout of Urban Meyer and Ohio State last week. And that game against VA Tech was a 21-point game until the Hokies tacked on a few touchdowns in garbage time with the game basically decided.

Dabo Swinney is now 5-1 SU & and a perfect 6-0 ATS in his last six bowl games. All six have come in the role of the underdog. Clemson beat LSU and Les Miles 25-24 in 2012, Meyer and Ohio State 40-35 in 2013, blew out Oklahoma and Bob Stoops twice 40-6 and 37-17 in 2014 and ’15, respectively, and gave Alabama and Nick Saban a run for its money in a 40-45 loss in the Championship Game last year. Then they beat Meyer and Ohio State again by 31 points last week.

Now the Tigers find themselves in the role of the dog again this week and looking for revenge from that loss to Alabama last year. You could certainly argue that the Tigers outplayed the Crimson Tide in that contest and should have won. They outgained them by 77 yards and racked up 550 total yards in the loss.

Deshaun Watson had himself a day, throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns with only one interception, while also rushing for 73 yards.  The key play was an onside kick called by Nick Saban late that was recovered by Alabama.  Saban admitted that they couldn't stop them afterwards, which was the reason he went for the onside.  He didn't see much of a difference in giving them the ball at the 20 or the 50, because they were going to score anyways.

Alabama hasn’t faced an offense as explosive as this Clemson outfit this season. The Tigers are putting up 39.5 points, 502.1 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. And the defense continues to be one of the most underrated in the country, giving up only 17.1 points, 306.9 yards per game and 4.6 per play. This will be by far Alabama’s toughest test of the season, and they always tend to struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks because they play man-to-man on defense and can't account for Watson's running ability.

I think there has been a big distraction with Lane Kiffin that could hurt the Crimson Tide here. He was let go after the win over Washington, and now Steve Sarkisian will be replacing him. There could be some chemistry issues there with Sarkisian and QB Jalen Hurts. And Hurts played his worst game of the season against Washington, completing only 7-of-14 passes for 57 yards, while also rushing for only 50 yards on 19 carries. They won in spite of him, thanks in large part to another defensive touchdown, which was their 11th of the season.

It's clear that the SEC was overrated this season, while the ACC was vastly underrated.  The SEC went just 6-6 in bowl games this season.  The ACC went 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in bowl games.  That includes big wins by Florida State over Michigan and Virginia Tech over Arkansas, and obviously Clemson's win over Ohio State.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS vs. excellent teams who outscore opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Swinney is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Clemson. Swinney is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per play as the coach of Clemson.  Bet Clemson Monday.

20* USC/Penn State Rose Bowl No-Brainer on USC -7

You could make the argument that USC has been the second-best team in the country over the final eight weeks of the season, and I would not disagree one bit.  The Trojans have won eight straight games coming in with seven of those victories coming by at least 13 points.  The only exception was a 21-17 win over Colorado in which they outgained the Buffaloes by 168 yards and should have won by more.

In fact, the Trojans have outgained their last eight opponents by a total of 1,463 yards, which is an average of 162 yards per game.  Their defense hasn't allowed more than 27 points in any of the eight games, including 20 or fewer six times.  And the offense has taken off ever since Sam Darnold took over.

Darnold lost his first start in a hostile environment in Utah, but played well in the defeat, and the Trojans have won eight straight since.  Darnold is already going to be among the Heisman favorites next year with what he has done this season.  He is completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 2,633 yards with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Penn State was a team I was very high on coming into the season.  In fact, their OVER 7 wins was my favorite win total in college football, and I cashed it with ease.  But I think they are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors lately and are fortunate to have won the Big Ten with an 11-2 record.

They have won their last nine games, which started with an overtime victory over Minnesota at home.  They were lucky to beat Ohio State with a blocked FG that was returned for a touchdown as they trailed by 14 in the 4th quarter.  They should have lost to Indiana on the road, and they came back from 21 down to beat Wisconsin in the title game. It has been a great run, but it ends here in the Rose Bowl.

USC will be better at almost every position on the field in this game, and certainly more athletic at most positions.  Trace McSorley had a great freshman season for the Nittany Lions, but he's not going to be able to make big plays against this USC secondary, which is led by 1st-team All-America CB Adoree Jackson.  He won the 2016 Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back, while also averaging 30.5 yards on kickoff returns and 15.9 on punt returns with a combined four touchdowns.

We saw a Big Ten team get dominated in the Rose Bowl last season.  Iowa lost to Stanford 16-45, and I think we could see a similar beat down here.  In fact, the Big Ten is just 2-11 in its last 13 Rose Bowl appearances dating back to 2001.  Despite winning the Big Ten this season, I think Penn State is just the 4th-best team in the conference, and they would be big underdogs to both Ohio State and Michigan, and small dogs to Wisconsin.  Since I believe USC is the second-best team in the country right now, it should be laying more than a touchdown here.

It's also worth noting that Penn State has recently suspended two of its starters in WR Saeed Blacknall and LB Manny Bowen.  Blacknall missed five games due to injury, but was a valuable piece down the stretch, especially in the Big Ten Championship as he had 6 catches, 155 yards and 2 touchdowns against Wisconsin.  Bowen has started 12 of 13 games this season, recording the fourth-most tackles (68) on the team.

USC is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season, winning by an average of 23 points per game.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Penn State is 1-4 ATS in its last five January games.  The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six January games.  The Trojans are 4-1 straight up in their last five Rose Bowls, winning by 14, 14, 32 and 14 points.  Bet USC in the Rose Bowl.

15* Iowa/Florida Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +3

The Florida Gators are one of the most overrated teams in the country. It’s amazing they are still ranked 17th heading into the bowl season with how badly they were embarrassed when they took a step up in class late in the year. They simply took advantage of a down SEC East division, but this isn’t a good team.

That was evident with a 13-31 loss to Florida State and a 16-54 loss to Alabama in their last two games. The same thing happened to the Gators last season as they were blown out by both Florida State and Alabama, and then they went on to lose to Michigan 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl.

To the Gators’ credit, no team was hit harder by injuries this season than them. They will be a little healthier now going into their bowl game, but they are still missing a ridiculous amount of starters and will be nowhere near full strength. That’s why they should not be favored in this game.

Iowa, on the other hand, comes in underrated. The Hawkeyes underachieved this season after going 12-2 last year while making the Rose Bowl. But after their 5-4 start, they played their best football of the season down the stretch. They beat Michigan 14-13 as 24-point home dogs, shut out Illinois 28-0 as 8-point road favorites and dominated Nebraska 40-10 as 3-point home favorites. They should be getting more credit from oddsmakers with the way they finished.

Both of these offenses are limited in the passing game, but Iowa can at least run the football, while Florida cannot. The Hawkeyes averaged 172 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that only gave up 157 yards per game and 4.1 per carry on average. The Gators only managed 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that gave up 178 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Iowa closed the season by gaining 164 yards on the ground against Michigan, 262 against Illinois and 264 against Nebraska. Florida closed the season by giving up at least 219 rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall. The Hawkeyes are going to be able to find plenty of success on the ground against this Florida defense, which is still missing several key players along the front seven due to injury.

I think the Hawkeyes will be very motivated for a victory here to end a four-game bowl losing streak, including the embarrassing 45-16 loss to Stanford in the Rose Bowl last year. And the Hawkeye fans travel as well as almost any team in the country to these bowl games, especially to warm destinations like Tampa, Florida to get out of the cold weather they’re accustomed to in winter months. It won’t be as much of a home-field advantage for Florida as most think.

Iowa is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win over the last two seasons. Florida is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 after scoring 17 points or fewer in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games coming in. Plays against any team (FLORIDA) – after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 59-24 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Iowa in the Outback Bowl.

15* Ohio State/Clemson Fiesta Bowl BAILOUT on Clemson +3.5

I would argue that this is the worst team Urban Meyer has had at Ohio State.  The Buckeyes got off to a tremendous start this season, but they have really backed their way into the four-team playoff with some fortunate victories along the way.

The Buckeyes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They were lucky to survive Wisconsin in overtime, lost to Penn State as 17.5-point favorites, only beat Northwestern by 4 as 25.5-point favorites, only beat Michigan State 17-16 as 20.5-point favorites, and survived a double-OT game against Michigan 30-27 as 4.5-point favorites.

I realize the Clemson also survived some scares this season, but I think the 42-43 loss to Pitt awoke this team.  The Tigers went on to win their final three games with a 22-point win at Wake Forest, a 49-point win over rival South Carolina and a 42-35 victory over VA Tech in the ACC Championship.  However, that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tigers led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing some points in garbage time.

Urban Meyer gets massive respect from everyone, and he deserves it.  But I would put Dabo Swinney's credentials up against his and take Swinney with what he has done recently.  Most don't realize this, but Swinney 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in his last five bowl games.  All five came in the underdog role.  
 
Clemson beat LSU and Les Miles 25-24 in 2012, Meyer and Ohio State 40-35 in 2013, blew out Oklahoma and Bob Stoops twice 40-6 and 37-17 in 2014 and '15, respectively, and gave Alabama and Nick Saban a run for its money in a 40-45 loss in the Championship Game last year.  No team has been more impressive in bowls than Clemson the past five years.

J.T. Barrett just isn't making big plays in the passing game.  The Buckeyes lack talented receivers, and they are just so predictable.  They only managed 23 points at the end of regulation against Wisconsin, 21 against Penn State, 24 against Northwestern, 17 against Michigan State and 17 at the end of regulation against Michigan.  Barrett is 25-of-54 for 210 yards in his last two games, which is under 4.0 yards per attempt.

And this is a Clemson team that is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, especially the defensively.  The Tigers have 31 more sacks than their opponents this season.  This is a defense that gives up just 18.4 points, 126 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and 188 passing yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.

Ohio State was not strong at the line of scrimmage this year, only getting one more sack than their opponents on the season.  The Buckeyes were out-sacked by Penn State and Michigan by a combined 11 sacks, and Barrett was sacked 14 times in those two games.  Clemson is 2nd nationally in sacks this season, behind only Florida State.

Clemson boasts one of the top offenses in the country, averaging 40.2 points, 504.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  I like the fact that this team has experience in these big-game situations after falling just short last year, and they want to make amends.  Deshaun Watson also feels snubbed for finishing 2nd to Lamar Jackson in the Heisman Trophy voting.  Ohio State is a young squad with just six returning starters from last year that won't be ready for the moment.

Swinney is not only 5-0 ATS in his last five bowl games, but 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in his career at Clemson, and also 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of the Tigers.  We'll take these two never-lost systems straight to the bank Saturday.  Take Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.

20* Washington/Alabama Peach Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +15

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been hearing about how great they are for a month.  Washington players have been hearing about how they have no chance.  Which team do you think will be more motivated?  It's obviously the Huskies, I fully expect them to give Alabama a game here.

Washington will be the best team that Alabama has faced this season.  You could make the case for LSU, and they were tied with Alabama in the fourth quarter.  But while Alabama has faced three teams with Top 10 defenses and one Top 10 offense this season, it hasn't faced a team with both.  The Huskies rank 6th in offense and 5th in defense in the country.

Most teams would be overrated if they led the nation in turnover margin like Washington, but that's just a staple of Chris Petersen-coached teams.  But Alabama actually led the country in defensive and special teams touchdowns, averaging more than one per game, which is unheard of.  The Huskies won't make those same colossal mistakes that others teams have made against the Crimson Tide this season.

I love getting Petersen in the underdog role.  He is 6-0 ATS as a dog in his career with extra time to prepare.  Peterson is also 5-0 all-time in Top-10 matchups.  He pulled off two outright upsets as underdogs dating back to his time at Boise State.  I trust him to come up with a game plan that will give his team the best chance of being competitive in this game.

One advantage the Huskies are going to have is in the passing game.  Jalen Hurts was inconsistent throwing the football this season, and it won't get any easier against a Huskies team that ranks 9th in pass-efficiency defense.  They can make the Crimson Tide one-dimensional here.  And the Huskies have Jake Browning, who ranks second in the Power 5 in completion percentage and TD passes on throws of at least 25 yards downfield.  He has thrown for a school-record 42 touchdowns on the season.

Washington's top four receivers average 17.2 yards per catch, and they have two studs in Dante Pettis and John Ross on the outside that can take the top off this Alabama defense.  The Crimson Tide rank 67th and 55th nationally in pass plays of more than 20 and 30 yards allowed, respectively.  Washington's offense ranks 38th and 9th in those two categories.  The Tide allowed several big passing plays against both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, which are two of the most similar offenses to this Washington outfit.

It's not like the Huskies are slouches against the run, either.  They give up just 124 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry against teams who average 176 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Petersen is 9-1 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games in all games he has coached.  The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Bet Washington in the Peach Bowl.

15* LSU/Louisville Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LSU -3

I think LSU is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers were much better than an 8-4 team this season.  Their four losses came by a combined 23 points to Wisconsin, Auburn, Alabama and Florida.  They had a game-winning TD called back against Auburn on the final play, were tied with Alabama in the 4th quarter, and outgained Florida by 153 yards and clearly should have won that game if not for red zone issues.

I like the fact that Ed Orgeron signed a new contract, giving this program some stability, and the players clearly love him.  One of the best defensive coordinators in the country is sticking around in Dave Aranda, and now they hired one of the best offensive minds in the nation in Matt Canada for the future, who worked wonders at Pitt this season.  Things are looking up in Baton Rouge as the players, coaches and fans are all excited for the future.

I think Aranda's defense will be extremely motivated in this game.  They have been seeing Lamar Jackson posters all week leading up to this game after he won the Heisman Trophy.  They will be hungry to shut him down, and now I feel like this is the best defense he will have faced all season.  The Tigers have the speed to make Jackson a one-dimensional passer, and that is clearly his weakness.

I love the way that LSU finished the season when it could have packed it in after that loss to Florida.  The Tigers went out an dominated Texas A&M 54-39 on the road in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And another reason I say this is better than an 8-4 team is because seven of the eight wins came by double-digits, while all four losses came in a closing seconds.

Louisville faced a ridiculously easy schedule this season and only has beaten one team that finished the season with a winning record in Florida State.  And the Cardinals have been overvalued since that win, going just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  There have been several lackluster performances along the way.

Louisville only beat Duke 24-14 as 35-point favorites, only beat Virgina 32-25 as 32-point favorites, were actually trailing Wake Forest 12-10 in the 4th quarter, were blown out by Houston 36-10 as 17.5-point favorites, and were upset by Kentucky 38-41 as 28.5-point favorites.  With those five results, I don't know how you could possibly trust Louisville here.

I know Leonard Fournette won't play in this game, but I'm not concerned about that.  Derrius Guice is just as good, and I would argue even more explosive, as he has rushed for 1,249 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 8.0 yards per carry.  Fournette averaged 6.5 per carry this season.

And LSU is going to be able to run the football against this Louisville defense that gave up 201 yards and 6.5 per carry to Clemson and 229 yards and 5.3 per carry to Kentucky on the ground.  And the Cardinals have been sloppy with the football to say the last, ranking 108th in the country in giveaways with 31 on the season.  They have committed multiple turnovers in 10 of their 12 games, and 3-plus in eight of them.  They cannot be trusted because of it.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orgeron is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average at least 8 yards per pass attempt in all games he has coached.  I think Louisville is a one-trick pony with Jackson, and it will be at a disadvantage everywhere else on the field in this game.  Roll with LSU in the Citrus Bowl.

20* Michigan/FSU Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Florida State +7

The Michigan Wolverines had their dreams crushed with a 27-30 (OT) loss to Ohio State in the season finale that kept them out of the Big Ten Championship Game, and thus out of the four-team playoff. So while most teams would be excited to be going to the Orange Bowl, the Wolverines are not.

At the same time, the Florida State Seminoles are excited to be here. They had three losses through their first eight games of the season an easily could have packed it in. Instead, they went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games and finished playing their best football of the season. They were rewarded by earning this trip to the Orange Bowl and clearly want to take advantage.

Michigan won a total of one game outside the state of Michigan this season, which was at lowly Rutgers. The Wolverines also faced only two offenses that ranked in the top 35 nationally in efficiency. One of those was a Penn State team that was clearly not as good when they played them as they are now. The other was Ohio State in the finale.

Florida State was oh-so-close to being an 11-1 team this season. The Seminoles lost on a 55-yard field goal to North Carolina on the final play of the game. They also lost in the final minutes to Clemson on a fluke penalty, and the Tigers are going to the four-team playoff.

Since October 8th, Florida State ranks 6th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Seminoles have allowed just three touchdowns in their last 42 opponent drives, and they didn’t allow a single first down in 25 of those drives. They lead the nation with 47 sacks as well. They face a Michigan offense that scored only six touchdowns in their final 38 drives while failing to gain a first down in 16 of those.

I don’t believe Michigan has faced an offense as talented and explosive as this FSU unit. The Seminoles have Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for 4,319 yards and 45 touchdowns in his career, which are school records. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in eight of the past nine games. Deondre Francois is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the nation, completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,128 yards with 18 touchdowns against only six interceptions.

Florida State played the much tougher schedule this season. Eight of FSU’s 12 opponents played rank in the top 40, while only five opponents played by Michigan rank in the top 40. The betting public has been all over Michigan all season and continues to be in this Orange Bowl, but I think this is about as evenly-matched a bowl game as there is. Thus, getting a touchdown here with the Seminoles is a huge value.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing defenses who allow 5.75 or fewer yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three years. Michigan is 26-46 ATS in its last 72 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

15* Nebraska/Tennessee Music City Bowl Mismatch on Tennessee -6.5

The Vols come into the bowl season undervalued because they underachieved this season. And they left a bad taste in bettors’ mouths with a 34-45 loss at Vanderbilt as 7.5-point favorites in the finale. But that was a bad spot for the Vols as they had been eliminated from SEC East contention the previous week as Florida beat LSU. And the Commodores wanted that game more as they were looking for their sixth win to get bowl eligible.

I think we’ll see a big effort from the Vols here to go out on a high note. When they have been motivated, they’ve taken care of business this season. And we’ve seen the last two years that Butch Jones knows how to get his teams ready for bowl games. And Jones knows that he needs a win here to get back in the good graces of the fans.

The last two years the Vols have dominated the Big Ten in bowl games. They beat Iowa 45-28 in the 2014 TaxSlayer Bowl as 3-point favorites. Then they easily covered last year as 10-point favorites over Northwestern in a 45-6 beat down in the Outback Bowl. I think we see history repeat itself here.

There is a big gap in strength of schedule between these teams. Tennessee played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country, while Nebraska played the 64th. The Huskers started 7-0, but it was a deceptive 7-0. They should have lost to lowly Oregon, and they needed second-half comebacks to beat both Illinois and Purdue, two terrible teams. We saw what happened when the Huskers took a step up in class, losing to Ohio State and Iowa by a combined score of 102-13.

And now the Huskers are expected to be without starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong, who is doubtful with a hamstring injury. That means backup Ryker Fyfe will get the nod. Fyfe has struggled in limited action, completing just 49.2% of his passes for 315 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt. Not to mention top wideout Jordan Westerkamp is expected to miss this game with a knee injury.

The extra bowl practices have helped the Volunteers get as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. The one player I trust the most in this game is senior QB Joshua Dobbs, who wants to end his career a winner. And Dobbs has this Tennessee offense hitting on all cylinders.

They have averaged 50.2 points over their last four games and Dobbs has had a hand in 15 of the 27 touchdowns scored. Dobbs holds the single-season rushing mark for a quarterback, and leads the SEC in touchdown passes (26), passer efficiency (152.6) and points responsible for (216). I just don’t know how Nebraska is going to keep up with Dobbs and company with a backup QB in Fyfe.

Tennessee is 45-25 ATS in its last 70 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Nebraska is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 road games vs. good rushing teams who average at least 200 yards per game. Keep in mind that this will essentially be a home game for the Vols played in Nashville, which will also be a huge advantage. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with Tennessee in the Music City Bowl.

15* Stanford/UNC Sun Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -3.5

I know that Stanford will not have Christian McCaffrey, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. I actually think it motivates them even more because there will be a bunch of naysayers out there thinking they can’t win without him. This team is already motivated to get to 10 wins for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, which would be impressive considering they've played the 9th-toughest schedule in the country.

It’s not like backup Bryce Love is incapable, either. Love had 111 yards in the final regular-season game, he had 82 yards on five carries against Oregon, and a season-high 129 yards in the win at Notre Dame. He is actually averaging 7.4 yards per carry compared to 6.3 per carry for McCaffrey.

And Love is primed for a big game on the ground against a UNC defense that cannot stop the run, which is going to be the difference in this game. The Tar Heels allowed a ridiculous 236 rushing yards per game, 28 rushing touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry this season. They were blitzed by Baylor in their bowl game last year and gave up over 600 rushing yards in the loss.

Stanford comes in playing well having won five in a row. Its offense has averaged over 543 yards per game over the past three contests. The difference was replacing Ryan Burns with sophomore Keller Chryst, who led the Cardinal to those five wins while throwing nine touchdowns and only one interception. And the Cardinal have been great in bowl games, covering six of their last seven, including winning the last two by 24 and 29 points as favorites.

Mitch Trubisky is a heck of a quarterback for the Tar Heels, but he’s more concerned about staying healthy and possibly being the top QB taken in the NFL Draft. And I don’t know how invested the Tar Heels will really be for this game after losing to rivals Duke and NC State to finish the season despite being double-digits favorites in both games. Those losses cost them a potential berth in the ACC Championship Game. ACC teams have lost five of the last six Sun Bowls.

And the strength of the Cardinal defense is the pass D, which ranks 10th in the country in pass defense efficiency. The defensive backfield was banged up early in the season but is healthy now. The Cardinal only allow 54.3% completions, 219 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt. So the UNC offensive strength is the strength of the Stanford D, while the UNC defensive weakness is the strength of the Stanford offense. That makes this a great matchup for the Cardinal, which is the main reason I like them here.

Stanford is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 road games vs teams who average at least 425 yards per game on offense. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS vs. poor ball control teams who possess the ball for 28 or fewer minutes per game over the last two seasons. The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven December games. Stanford is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take Stanford in the Sun Bowl.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +7

The Arkansas Razorbacks played in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West.  As a result, they played the 26th-toughest schedule in the country this season and managed to go 7-5.  They only had one bad loss all season as they only lost once as a favorite, which was a 24-28 loss at Missouri in the finale in a game the Tigers were treating as their Super Bowl.  And they never should have lost as they blew a 24-7 lead and outgained the Tigers by 104 yards.

I think that loss will have the Razorbacks motivated heading into this bowl game.  It also has them undervalued as they are catching a full touchdown here to Virginia Tech.  This has been a very resilient Arkansas team all season as they are a perfect 4-0 straight up in their last four games following a defeat, not once losing two games in a row all season.

“I think they’ll be very eager,” coach Bret Bielema, whose team will be facing the Hokies for the first time in school history, told reporters. “We’d like to play one this week to get that taste out of your mouth. Our guys will handle it the right way. We’ve got a good group of seniors.”

Bielema certainly knows how to get his guys ready for bowl games.  He has led the Razorbacks to blowout victories each of the past two years in bowl games.  They routed Texas 31-7 as 7-point favorites in 2014, and buried Kansas State 45-23 as 13-point favorites in 2015.  And I love getting Bielema in the underdog role as he is 13-5-1 ATS in his last 19 tries.

Austin Allen might be the best quarterback in the SEC.  He completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 3,152 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  His 23 touchdowns were the second-most in the conference.  The Razorbacks can still run the football this season behind Rawleigh Williams (1,326 yards, 12 TD, 5.7/carry), who is primed for a big game here.

Virginia Tech comes in overvalued after winning the down Coastal Division and only losing to Clemson by a touchdown in the ACC Championship Game.  However, the Hokies were down 21 late in that game, so it wasn't as close as the final score.  That was a deflating loss to the Hokies and I question their motivation coming into this game because of it.  They certainly won't be as up for this game as they were to play Clemson.

The Hokies only played the 51st-toughest schedule this season. And we saw what happened when they faced an SEC team earlier this year, losing 24-45 to Tennessee on a neutral field.  The reason the Razorbacks should have a big day on the ground is because the Hokies have been susceptible to the run.  They gave up 239 rushing yards to Tennessee, 227 to Duke, 309 to Georgia Tech and 200 to Notre Dame.  Williams is primed for his 8th 100-yard rushing effort of the season.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest over the last three seasons, winning by 15.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Razorbacks crushed Florida 31-10 as 3-point dogs following their bye earlier this season.  Arkansas is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Arkansas in the Belk Bowl.

15* USF/South Carolina Birmingham Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +10.5

I question how motivated South Florida will be in this game. They just lost their head coach Willie Taggart to Oregon, and none of the current coaches on the staff are likely to stick around as Charlie Strong has been hired. The interim will be T.J. Weist, and David Reaves will serve as offensive coordinator.

The reason the loss of Taggart is so big is because he was also the guy who called the plays for the Bulls. This offense will still have firepower, but I just don’t think that South Florida will be hitting on all cylinders without Taggart calling the shots. It’s a situation I think we can profit from by fading the Bulls as they are being asked to lay double-digits here to an SEC team.

And that’s another key. South Carolina obviously played a much tougher schedule (56th) than South Florida (78th) this season because it plays in the SEC. And the Gamecocks showed very well in Will Muschamp’s first season. They’ll benefit from these extra bowl practices and should be excited to be playing in a bowl for the 12th time in 13 seasons because they didn’t get to go bowling last year. And this is a very young team that will relish the opportunity.

South Carolina was actually able to win three SEC games this year, including a 13-10 win at Vanderbilt as 5-point dogs, and a 24-21 home victory over Tennessee as 15-point dogs. To hold that high-powered Tennessee offense to just 21 points really says a lot about how good this Muschamp defense is. The Vols only managed 297 total yards in defeat.

Muschamp will come up with a game plan to slow down the high-powered attack of USF as well. The Bulls were used to playing some very poor defenses in the AAC, and I would argue that they haven’t faced a defense as good as the one they will be up against in the Birmingham Bowl. The Gamecocks only allow 24.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on the season despite facing a much more difficult schedule. They rank 10th nationally in takeaways with 25, and they have only allowed 28 touchdowns in 49 trips to the red zone by their opponents.

Freshman QB Jake Bentley improved as the season went on once he took over. He completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,030 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. He should be in line for his best game of the season against a USF defense that was atrocious all season. The Bulls gave up 31.0 points per game, 482 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season. They have allowed at least 500 yards in four of their last five games.

The Gamecocks have won each of their last four bowl games, which is the second-longest active winning streak in the country. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

15* WVU/Miami Russell Athletic Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Miami -3

I think the Hurricanes are the happier team to be here. The Mountaineers had a chance to win the Big 12 down the stretch and lost out on a better bowl when they lost to Oklahoma. They proceeded to beat Iowa State and Baylor, but they didn’t play well in either of those games.

They only outgained Iowa State by 52 yards and they were outgained by Baylor by 18 yards in a narrow 24-21 win as 17-point favorites. I think the Mountaineers continue sleep-walking into their bowl game. They already have their 10 wins, so their season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  And their 10-2 record is skewed because they only beat two teams with winning records, BYU and Kansas State, by a combined four points.

Miami clearly wants to be here and will have a pep in its step in its first set of bowl practices under head coach Mark Richt. The Hurricanes won their final four games to close out the season in blowout fashion, going 4-0 ATS in the process. They beat Pitt by 23 at home, Virginia by 20 on the road, NC State by 14 on the road and Duke by 19 at home. They outgained their last four opponents by a combined 537 yards in the process. They clearly come in playing their best football of the season.

Adding to Miami’s motivation is the fact that it hasn’t won a bowl game in a decade, losing six straight with its last win coming in 2006. The Hurricanes will also be looking to build momentum for the future as they look to regain their past glory under Richt, a former Hurricanes quarterback.

Statistically, these teams are pretty even on both sides of the ball, so I think it does come down to motivation. It also helps that Miami will have a home-field edge with this game being played in Orlando. Also, the Hurricanes have a big edge on special teams.

Miami kicker Michael Badgley went 10-of-11 on field goals of 40 or more yards this season. WVU kicker Mike Molina made only 2-of-5 from 40 yards or more. Miami punter Justin Vogel averaged 44.2 yards on 57 punts with 23 punts inside the 20 and only one touchback. WVU punter Billy Kinney averaged 41.4 yards on 51 punts with 14 inside the 20 and five touchbacks.

West Virginia is 6-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games on a neutral field. West Virginia is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 vs. ACC opponents. Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last two seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season. West Virginia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games.  Take Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl Wednesday.

20* Temple/Wake Forest Military Bowl No-Brainer on Wake Forest +12

There are a ton of factors working in Wake Forest's favor coming into this bowl game.  I think there's a ton of value in backing them as 12-point underdogs here in the Military Bowl.  In fact, it's probably one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.

For starters, the Demon Deacons are going to be extremely excited to be here.  They haven't been to a bowl game since 2011.  When they clinched their bowl berth in a win over Virginia in their ninth game of the season, they didn't exactly play well down the stretch in losing their final three games of the season.  But I think that also has them undervalued as they come in on a 3-game losing streak.

When you look at the teams they faced down the stretch, it's easy to see why they lost three straight.  They lost 12-44 against Louisville, but covered as 34-point dogs.  And that game was way closer than the final score as the Demon Deacons actually led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 34-0 in a fluky final period.

The Demon Deacons also lost 13-35 at home to Clemson, covering as 23.5-point dogs though.  And they lost 14-17 at home to Boston College in the season finale.  But the Eagles had more to play for in that game as they were looking for their 6th win and bowl eligibility.  But the Demon Deacons should have won that game as they outgained the Eagles by 120 yards and held them to just 167 yards of total offense.

Temple does not want to be here.  Their reward for winning the AAC Championship over Navy? How about a repeat trip to Annapolis, Maryland to face a 6-6 Wake Forest team.  That's right, the AAC title game was also played in Annapolis.  This isn't exactly the most exciting city for a college kid to visit, especially for a second time in as many games.

The Owls also lost their head coach in Matt Rhule to Baylor.  We saw how that worked out for Houston already this bowl season after losing Tom Herman.  The interim coach is Ed Foley, who is the special teams and tight ends coach.  The Owls will be moving on to Geoff Collins next season, who was the defensive coordinator at Florida this season.  This is a huge distraction for these players, especially the non-seniors who will be coming back next year.  Rhule was certainly beloved with what he was able to do with this program.

Another reason I like fading Temple here is because the betting public has been all over them, and they've been rewarded.  In fact, the Owls have the best ATS record in the nation at 12-1.  They have covered in 12 straight games since a loss to Army in the opener.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for that, knowing that the public is going to continue riding Temple in this game.

Points are going to be at a premium in this game.  That's evident with a total set of 40.5 points.  That favors the underdog as both of these teams have great defenses.  Wake Forest will be able to hang around in this game behind a defense that gives up just 21.8 points and 370 yards per game this season against a much tougher slate than what Temple was up against.

The Demon Deacons have some standouts on defense in junior DL Duke Ejiofor, senior LB Marquel Lee and freshman S Jessie Bates.  Eliofor and Lee combined for 34 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks this season.  Bates finished second on the team in tackles to Lee.  He led all FBS freshmen in interceptions, interception returns yards and INT return touchdowns and was named to the Freshman All-American Team.

Wake Forest is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  The Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  Wake Forest is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  With all of the motivational edges in this game favoring the Demon Deacons, this is a contest that they could win outright.  Bet Wake Forest in the Military Bowl.

20* NC State/Vanderbilt Independence Bowl No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +4.5

I really like the way that Vanderbilt finished the season as it put everything it had into becoming bowl eligible. That was a huge win over Tennessee for Derek Mason in his third season here, and the trip to a bowl game likely saved his job. These players will be ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game after missing out each of the past two years, so you know you’re going to get a big effort from them.

The Commodores certainly saved their best football for last. They won their final two games by beating Ole Miss 38-17 as 10-point home dogs and Tennessee 45-34 as 7.5-point home dogs. Wins over programs of that caliber are no small feat, and Vanderbilt also beat the likes of Western Kentucky and Georgia earlier this season, while also playing Auburn to a 7-point game on the road. They only lost by double-digits once this season, so they were competitive in basically every game.

While Vanderbilt beat four teams with winning records this season, NC State only beat two such teams. One was against Old Dominion, and the other was against a deflated UNC team in the season finale that had no shot at going to the ACC title game after losing the previous week. The Wolfpack simply took advantage of that spot and beat their rivals when they were the more motivated team because they needed the win to get to a bowl.

Let’s talk a little more about how well Vanderbilt played down the stretch. It scored a combined 83 points over the final two games as junior running back Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five touchdowns on 41 carries. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee, and totaled four touchdown passes in his finale two games.

So not only is Vanderbilt’s offense hitting its stride, but the defense was one of the better units in the stacked SEC. The Commodores only allowed 22.6 points per game this season, holding opponents to 8.4 points per game less than their season averages. This defense should be able to limit NC State’s offense, which averaged a mediocre 25.8 points per game during the regular season and was inconsistent all year.

NC State is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games off a road win over a conference opponent. Derek Mason is 12-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better as the coach of Vanderbilt. Dave Doeren is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who allow 58% completions or more as the coach of NC State. The Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The SEC supremacy reigns true in this game, too.  Bet Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl.

15* Miami/Miss State St. Petersburg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State -13

I certainly want to give Miami Ohio credit for making a bowl game after the 0-6 start. The Redhawks clearly wanted to make a bowl, and they will be excited to be here. However, I just don’t see any way they can be competitive against Mississippi State, which I would argue is probably the best team that they will have played all season.

Certainly you could argue that Iowa was the best team that they played, but I would say it’s pretty close. And Miami lost to Iowa 21-45. I think we will see a similar margin in this game against a Bulldogs team that really got better as the season progressed.

It’s worth noting that Miami Ohio only beat two bowl teams this season, and that was Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan, two mediocre teams in the MAC. The talent difference in this game is massive as the Bulldogs will have better athletes on the field at almost every position.

Mississippi State beat two really good teams down the stretch. They won 35-28 over Texas A&M as 10-point underdogs, and then saved their best performance for last in a 55-20 win at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs. The Bulldogs racked up 566 total yards on the Rebels, including 457 rushing.

The Bulldogs really picked it up offensively in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that weren’t against No. 1 Alabama. Freshman sensation Nick Fitzgerald led the SEC in total offense with 3,530 yards, 1,243 on the ground, while accounting for 35 total touchdowns (21 passing, 14 rushing).

Fitzgerald rushed for at least 100 yards in five of six second-half contests, including 258 against Ole Miss. He is bigger than basically every linebacker at Miami Ohio and will be tough to tackle.  Fitzgerald has two elite targets on the outside to get the ball to. Senior Fred Ross caught 68 balls for 873 yards and 12 touchdowns, while junior Donald Gray had 39 receptions for 691 yards and five scores.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) – off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 29-4 (87.9%) ATS since 1992.

Dan Mullen is 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Mississippi State. After playing in the rugged SEC West this season, the Bulldogs will welcome this cupcake opponent and make easy work of them in the St. Petersburg Bowl.   This is going to be a physical mismatch in favor of the Bulldogs, and that will be reflected on the scoreboard.  Take Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

20* EMU/ODU Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 64

What a great honor it is for these kids from Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion to be playing in a bowl game.  These are two postseason strangers as the Monarchs have never played in a bowl game, while the Eagles will be making their first appearance in 29 years.

Not only do these teams get to play in a bowl game, but they get to go to one of the best bowl destinations there is.  They will be playing in the Bahamas in perfect 82 degree weather on Friday.  The scoring conditions are going to be ideal, which is why I really like the OVER in this game.

Not surprisingly, the Bahamas Bowl is no stranger to high-scoring affairs.  This is the third edition, and the first two went well OVER the total.  Western Michigan and Middle Tennessee combined for 76 points last year, and Western Kentucky and Central Michigan combined for 97 points in the first edition in 2014.  I think we'll see a similar result in this contest that sails well OVER the posted total of 64.

These are familiar foes as EMU and ODU played last season as well.  They scored 72 combined points at Eastern Michigan in a 38-34 victory for the Monarchs.  Both teams exceeded 400 yards of offense.  And these are two offense that certainly can put up points.

Old Dominion is putting up 36.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Monarchs boast electric quarterback David Washington, who is one of four FBS quarterbacks to have thrown for at least 25 touchdowns (28) with four or fewer interceptions (4).  Ray Lawry is a tremendous running back as well, rushing for 1,122 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Eastern Michigan averages 30.5 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  This offense has taken off since Brogan Roback took over.  He has thrown for 2,394 yards with 16 touchdowns this season.  Roback threw for 468 yards and three scores in the Eagles' bowl-clinching win over Ball State earlier this season.

Both of these defenses really struggled on the road this season.  Eastern Michigan gave up 35.2 points, 494 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play away from home.  Old Dominion allowed 33.5 points, 427 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the road as well.

Old Dominion is 10-1 to the OVER after playing three straight conference games over the last three seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 19-7 in Eagles last 26 non-conference games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Monarchs last four vs. a team witha  winning record.  The OVER is 13-5-1 in Monarchs last 19 games overall.  Bet the OVER in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

15* Idaho/Colorado State Potato Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 64.5

With how well Colorado State is playing, I’m tempted to take them, but I think the point spread is a bit inflated as a result. Instead, I’ll look to the total as I foresee a shootout between Colorado State and Idaho on the Blue Turf in Boise.

The reason both teams finished so strong this season is their offenses, not their defenses. The Rams averaged an impressive 47.4 points and 520.6 yards over their final five games. Quarterback Nick Stevens was the catalyst. He tossed 14 touchdowns against only one interception over the final six games. Standout receiver Michael Gallup caught eight of his 11 touchdowns after Stevens regained the starting job.

Idaho boasts an elite offense of its own. The Vandals scored at least 34 points in five of their final seven games, all of which resulted in victories. Junior quarterback Matt Linehan, who is the son of Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, has passes for 2,803 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. Colorado State gives up 27.8 points, 404 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Rams allowed 34.3 points and 452 yards per game on the road this season. The Vandals give up 29.7 points, 414 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play overall. They allow 34.3 points and 410 yards per game on the road as well.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (COLORADO ST) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), in non-conference games are 34-8 (81%) over the last 10 seasons.  The final three Colorado State games saw 95, 80 and 94 combined points, which is an average of 89.7 points per game.  We don't need anywhere near that to get the OVER Thursday, but I think we'll get close.

Idaho is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. Idaho is 37-15 OVER in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-4 in Vandals last 16 non-conference games. The OVER is 4-1 in Rams last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

15* Memphis/WKU Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

I always look to fade bowl teams with head coaching changes depending on the situation.  We saw it hurt Houston already this bowl season in a 10-34 loss to San Diego State after Tom Herman left for Texas.  And now I think we're going to see the same effect here in the Boca Raton Bowl between Memphis and Western Kentucky.

The Hilltoppers just lost head coach Jeff Brohm, who led them to two straight C-USA Championships, to Purdue.  Defensive coordinator Nick Holt will take over in the interim for the bowl game.  WKU already hired former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Sanford to replace Brohm next season, so Holt is pretty much a lame-duck coach here in what will likely be his final game at WKU.

The reason the loss of Brohm really hurts is because he called the plays on offense.  The Hilltoppers averaged an FBS-best 44.6 points per game in three seasons under Brohm.  We saw Houston's offense struggle without Herman, and I certainly think the Hilltoppers won't be as explosive either without Brohm calling the shots.

WKU has already had a successful season with a C-USA title, so it isn't all that excited to be playing in this bowl game anyways.  The same cannot be said for Memphis, which is looking forward to this opportunity to play in a bowl game in the first season under head coach Mike Norvell.  He did a tremendous job in filling in for Justin Fuente in leading the Tigers to an 8-4 season.

Memphis won three of its final four games to improve its bowl position, including an impressive 48-44 win over Houston in the regular-season finale.  The Tigers lost Paxton Lynch to the NFL, but they didn't miss a beat on offense thanks to the play of QB Riley Ferguson.  He led the Tigers to an average of 39.5 points per game this season while throwing for 3,326 yards, including 409 yards and four touchdowns without an interception against a very good Houston defense in the finale.

The Tigers certainly played the tougher schedule this season as the AAC was the much stronger conference this season.  Their four losses came to Ole Miss, Navy, Tulsa and South Florida.  They beat Temple earlier this season, which won the AAC title.  Western Kentucky only beat three teams that finished with winning records this season in Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion and LA Tech.  And two of those games went right down to the wire.

Memphis comes in playing its best football of the season, getting better under Norvell as the season has progressed.  It went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final three games, beating SMU 51-7 on the road, Cincinnati 34-7 on the road and Houston 48-44 at home.  The only loss came to South Florida by a final of 42-49, and South Florida was one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are scoring 43.8 points per game during this stretch and they have the firepower to match the Hilltoppers score for score, especially now that Brohm isn't calling the plays.

The Tigers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Conference-USA opponents.  The Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Western Kentucky is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl.

20* Saturday Bowl Season Opener on Southern Miss -4.5

Southern Miss underachieved as much as almost anyone in the country this season. The Golden Eagles won 9 games and went to the Conference USA Championship Game last season.  They brought back 13 starters from that squad, including their best player in QB Nick Mullens. So to finish just 6-6 was a huge disappointment.

That being said, I like the way this team rallied in their season finale as they clearly wanted to make a bowl game. They upset Louisiana Tech 39-24 as 15.5-point home underdogs, covering the spread by 30.5 points and finally living up to their potential. A big reason for their success in that game was that Mullens returned from a two-game absence from a concussion to account for four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing).

There’s no question that the Golden Eagles are way better than their 6-6 record would indicate when you look at the statistics. In fact, they have outgained 11 of their 12 opponents this season. They are outgaining foes 472-331 on the season, or by 141 yards per game. That is the sign of a dominant team, not one with a 6-6 record.

The reason for the record is that they have committed a whopping 32 turnovers this season while forcing only 14, a -18 differential. But their two worst turnover games came without Mullens as they committed four turnovers against North Texas and five against Old Dominion. Having Mullens back healthy makes all the difference for this team. He is completing 63.4% of his passes for 2,926 yards with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season.

When you look at Lafayette’s numbers, they are the definition of an average 6-6 team. The Rajin’ Cajuns average just 366 yards per game on offense and give up 368 yards per game on defense. Their offense has been terrible all season as they average just 23.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. I think Southern Miss, which averages 33.2 points per game and 6.0 per play, has a massive edge on that side of the ball. And defensively, they’re pretty even.

I question the Rajin’ Cajuns’ motivation here because they will be making their 5th appearance in the last 6 years in the New Orleans Bowl. This venue probably has to be getting old, even though they have won all four trips with victories over San Diego State, East Carolina, Tulane and Nevada. I think Southern Miss is far and away the best team that they will have played in this particular bowl.

Teams like Southern Miss who didn't do well against the spread during the regular season have actually been great bets in the postseason.  Teams who covered less than 33% of their spreads coming into bowl season are 43-21 ATS over their last 64 tries.  Bowl favorites in this situation are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 tries.  This line opened at -2 and has been bet up to -4.5 as of this writing.  I believe this line has moved in this direction for good reason.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Houston/SDSU Las Vegas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3.5

Not all coaching changes are created equal.  I'm not concerned at all about Tom Herman leaving Houston for Texas.  That's because their offensive coordinator, Major Applewhite, is their head coach of the future.  Applewhite will call the plays and retain his defensive coordinator for this game before he moves on with Herman to Texas.

From a fundamental standpoint, Houston is clearly the better team here.  They have better talent across the board.  That talent really showed itself in wins over both Oklahoma and Louisville this season.  Not only did they win those games, they dominated them by winning by double-digits.

I think the fact that Houston lost to Memphis 44-48 in the season finale is providing us some value here.  But that was clearly a flat spot the Cougars after beating Louisville the week before.  That loss, plus the Herman news, has them coming into the bowl season undervalued.

Greg Ward Jr. will be the best player on the field in this game.  He didn't fold against Memphis in the season finale and nearly led them to a comeback win.  Ward Jr. is a senior and is going to want to go out a winner.  It's basically like having an extra coach on the field with him under center.

San Diego State has a decent defense, but it hasn't seen a quarterback who can run like Ward.  And the only spread offense the Aztecs have faced that is even close to the Cougars is Cal.  Well, SDSU gave up 40 points and over 600 yards to that Cal offense.  But Cal doesn't have a guy under center who is a dual threat like Ward Jr.

Houston was only outgained twice all season by its opponents.  The Cougars outgained their foes by 134 yards per game on average.  San Diego State was outgained five times this year.  The Aztecs were outgained in each of the last three games by Wyoming (twice) and Colorado State.

The biggest reason I like Houston is the matchup.  San Diego State is one of the worst passing teams in the country as they average just 146 rushing yards per game.  They rely heavily on their running game, and RB Donnell Pumphrey only needs 108 yards to become the FBS' all-time leading rusher.  I think achieving that feat is just as important to the Aztecs as winning the game.  If they get behind like I expect, they don't have the passing game to catch up, and they'll probably still be running it.

Houston is going to take it personal and try and stop Pumphrey from getting the record.  The Cougars certainly have the goods to do it, too.  The strength of the Houston defense is stopping the run.  They rank 3rd in the country in run defense, giving up just 98 rushing yards per game and a minuscule 2.9 yards per carry.  This couldn't be a better matchup for them.

San Diego State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 8-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last two years.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Aztecs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  SDSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Houston Saturday.

20* College Football GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +3

You pretty much have to wipe out what Penn State did in the first part of the season because they weren’t healthy. But since that ugly loss in Michigan, the Nittany Lions have gotten healthier every week, and the result has been an 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS run to close out the season.  They have beaten the spread by a combined 131 points during this stretch!

Not only have the Nittany Lions been winning, they’ve been dominating. They have won five straight games by at least 14 points, which dates back to their 24-21 upset of Ohio State. Many thought that win was a fluke, but with five straight wins by 14 points since, I believe the Nittany Lions have more than proved their naysayers wrong.

The biggest difference for Penn State has been the health of its defense. They now have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and after being without their top five linebackers against Michigan, they have gotten back their two best starters in Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell. They have given up an average of just 17.8 points per game in their last eight games.

At the same time, the Penn State offense just keeps improving. They have scored at least 39 points in five straight games coming in, which is impressive when you consider they’ve been up against some solid defenses in the likes of Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State. They are averaging 46.4 points per game over their last five.

Wisconsin checks in on a six-game winning streak of its own. Give the Badgers credit for their great season thus far, but I’m still not completely sold on this team. Four of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. And they were extremely lucky to beat Minnesota last week after falling behind 7-17 at halftime. The Gophers gave that game away by throwing four interceptions in the second half alone.

I think the fact that this game will be played indoors in Lucas Oil Stadium clearly favors Penn State. The elements won’t be an issue, which usually benefits Wisconsin playing outdoors. The better passing team has a huge advantage indoors, and it’s clear that Penn State is the better passing team with more big-play potential.

The Nittany Lions are averaging 251 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt against teams that only give up 204 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt. Wisconsin only averages 180 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt against teams that give up 202 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.

Wisconsin prefers to run the ball, but Penn State has been tremendous against the run since getting healthy. The Nittany Lions have only allowed 66.8 rushing yards per game and 2.0 yards per carry in their last five games overall. They will be ready for the test of going up against this Wisconsin rushing attack.

It’s worth noting that Wisconsin could be without quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who may not play due to a concussion suffered against Minnesota last week. He and Bart Houston have split time this season as they’ve played with two quarterbacks down the stretch. It certainly has worked for them, so if he can’t go that would throw a little wrinkle into Wisconsin’s plans at the position.

Penn State is scoring 40.4 points per game during its 8-game winning streak.  It has the game-changing playmakers in this one in Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin and QB Trace McSorley that will make all the difference.  The underdog has covered all five Big Ten Championship Games while winning three outright.  The Nittany Lions are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Clemson/VA Tech ACC Championship No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

This ACC Championship Game has been moved from Charlotte to Orlando.  Why is that a big deal for the OVER?  Well, Charlotte is a grass field with colder weather and not ideal for scoring conditions.  The surface in Orlando will be on a fast artificial track, and the weather is going to see a high of 75 on Saturday.  That's ideal scoring conditions.

Clemson is going to hang a big number here.  The Tigers got their wake-up call from Pitt a few weeks back, but the offense has been humming since.  They scored 28 points in the first half against a good Wake Forest defense the following week before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they hung 56 on a decent South Carolina defense last week.

Deshaun Watson threw six touchdown passes in that win over South Carolina.  He has an outside shot of stealing the Heisman Trophy from Lamar Jackson now that Louisville faltered down the stretch.  And you know Clemson is going to give Watson every opportunity to put up a big stat line in this game to pad his stats, just as they did last week.  This is a Clemson offense that is putting up 40.0 points and 507 yards per game on the season.

First-year coach Justin Fuente has done a tremendous job of improving the previously stagnant VA Tech offense.  The Hokies are putting up 35.0 points and 453 yards per game this season. That’s a huge improvement from the last few years under Frank Beamer. Jerod Evans is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback who has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 3,045 yards with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing with 713 yards and eight scores.

Clemson still has a good defense, but it has been susceptible to offenses a similar caliber to this Virginia Tech unit.  The Tigers allowed 36 points to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 43 to Pittsburgh.  I think Virginia Tech can come close to the 30-point mark in this one.

Clemson figures to hang a big number on what is a good VA Tech defense, but also one that has struggled at times this year.  The Hokies allowed 45 points to Tennessee, 31 to Syracuse, 36 to Pitt, 30 to Georgia Tech and 31 to Notre Dame, so they've given up at least 30 points five times.

Clemson should get to roughly 40 as we see somewhere in the neighborhood of a 40-30 final.  The Tigers have scored at least 35 points in each of their last five games while the Hokies have scored at least 34 points seven times against FBS foes this season.  VA Tech hung 52 on Virginia just last week to go along with 579 yards of total offense.

The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hokies last five neutral site games.  The OVER is 6-2 in Hokies last eight games following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* LA Tech/WKU C-USA Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +10

This line is a classic overreaction from what happened the week before.  Western Kentucky won 60-6 at Marshall, easily covering the 28-point spread.  Louisiana Tech lost 24-39 at Southern Miss, not even coming close to covering the 14.5-point spread.

But last week's LA Tech result can be thrown out the window.  It had already clinched the C-USA West Division, so that was a clear letdown spot in a game that didn't matter.  And Southern Miss is a way better team than its record would indicate and treated that game like it was their Super Bowl.  The Bulldogs were clearly looking ahead to the C-USA Championship Game, and they'll bring their 'A' game this week.

Western Kentucky didn't have the same luxury of taking last week off.  It was in a first-place tie with Old Dominion for the East Division title, so it needed to beat Marshall, which is a team that quit in the second half of the season.  The motivated Hilltoppers took care of business like they were supposed to and won the East division on a tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head victory over Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky has played a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, which also has it overvalued.  The last four games have been against Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas and Marshall, who are a combined 15-33 on the season.  This is going to be a huge step up in class for the Hilltoppers.

The last two meetings between these teams have been decided by a field goal.  WKU won 41-38 at home in 2015 as 2.5-point dogs, while LA Tech won 55-52 as 2.5-point dogs back on October 6th earlier this season.  But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulldogs actually led that game 49-24 and had to hold on late for the victory.  They outgained the Hilltoppers 561 to 427 for the game, or by 134 total yards.

Ryan Higgins threw for 454 yards and five touchdowns in that first meeting with Western Kentucky.  He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country that many of you have probably never heard of.  He is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,706 yards with 34 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 9.3 per attempt.

Higgins has two elite receivers on the outside who have had monster seasons.  Trent Taylor is the possession receiver, catching 113 balls for 1,462 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Carlos Henderson is the big-play guy, catching 63 balls for 1,204 yards and 16 scores.  With this high-powered offense, the Bulldogs are never going to be out of this game, and the back door is always going to be open if they fall behind early.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit favorite are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Bulldogs are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on UNDER 58

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between Washington and Colorado in the Pac-12 title game.  These are two of the best defenses in the Pac-12, and they are the reason these teams were able to make the championship game.  I think points will be at a premium here as both defenses come to play once again.

Washington gives up just 17.8 points per game, 329 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  It is holding opponents to 11.3 points, 82 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages.  Colorado gives up 18.7 points, 323 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  It is holding opponents to 11.0 points, 88 yards per game and 1.1 per play less than their season averages.

The Huskies rely heavily on their passing attack, but the Buffaloes have one of the best secondary's in the country.  The Huskies average 280 passing yards per game, while the Buffaloes allow just 186 passing yards per game, 5.4 per attempt and 48.5% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They actually have the manpower in the secondary to match up with John Ross and Dante Pettis, who have combined for 30 touchdown receptions for the Huskies this season.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Buffaloes last 13 conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Buffaloes last seven neutral site games. Washington is 12-2 UNDER when the total is between 56 and 63.5 over the past three seasons.  We're seeing an average of only 48.4 combined points per game in this spot.

The Buffaloes have held eight straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  The Huskies have held all 12 of their opponents to 27 points or fewer.  If both of those come true again in this game, then this one will easily stay UNDER the 58-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Florida/Florida State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -7.5

The Florida Gators are coming off a monstrous 16-10 win at LSU as 13.5-point underdogs that won them the SEC East for a second consecutive season.  The Gators deserve credit for gutting that win out, but they are now overvalued after such a huge victory, and this is a prime letdown spot even though it's against a rival like Florida State.

And that win over LSU was a complete fluke.  The Gators were outgained by 153 yards by the Tigers.  LSU had five trips into the Florida red zone and came away with 10 points.  They were held to one touchdown, one field goal, a missed field goal, and they were stopped on downs at the 1-yard line twice.

Florida's offense continues to be a problem.  The Gators managed just 270 total yards against LSU, and 36.2% of those came on one play on a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.  They were extremely lucky to win that game, and this is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to the 8-2 record against a soft schedule.

Florida is going to be much more concerned with saving up for next week's showdown with Alabama in Atlanta in the SEC Championship Game than beating Florida State.  The Gators have a laundry list of injuries right now as they'll be without up to 7 key players on defense, and at least 2 starting offensive linemen.  Coming off that physical game against LSU, they aren't going to have much left in the tank here.

Florida State is better than its 8-3 record and is legitimately a Top 10 team in the country in my eyes.  Two of its three losses came by a combined five points to UNC and Clemson.  But I've been very impressed with the way this team has responded since that loss to Clemson when they easily could have packed it in.

They came back the following week a little flat, but beat NC State 24-20 on the road.  Then they absolutely crushed Boston College 45-7 at home as 20.5-point favorites before going on the road and thumping Syracuse 45-14 as 23-point favorites.  Those efforts show that this team wants to finish the season strong.  And they don't have to save up for the ACC Championship Game, instead they're focus is 100% on beating Florida.

Something other than pride is on the line for the Seminoles, too.  This is Senior Night, and the seniors are trying to accomplish something that no other class in program history has been able to do.  They are looking to finish their careers with an 8-0 sweep of rivals Florida and Miami.  All told, Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 12-1 against Miami and Florida since taking over the program in 2010.

"I think it means a lot to the seniors' legacy here, and the foundation that we set," Seminoles' senior cornerback Marquez White said of the possibility of going 8-0 against their two rivals. "This is my last time playing in this stadium. Last home game. This is the way I want to go out. This is the way I want to be remembered. So, it means a lot to have this opportunity."

Florida State is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Florida.  The Seminoles won 27-2 over the Gators on the road last season, and Florida was SEC East champs then as well.  Plays against road underdogs (FLORIDA) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games followign a win.  The Seminoles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Jimbo Fisher is 8-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State, winning these games by 19.0 points per game on average.  LSU was a 13.5-point home favorite over Florida last week, and I believe FSU is every bit as good as LSU, and yet it is only laying 7.5 points here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +7.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are in an awful spot this week.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the SEC East with all that they had coming back.  And coming into last week, it looked like they would be playing this game against Vanderbilt with a chance to clinch the SEC East.  But that hasn't happened.

That's because Florida was supposed to lose at LSU as two-touchdown underdogs last week.  But the Gators were having none of it.  They beat LSU 16-10 with a huge goal-line stand in the closing seconds.  Now Florida has already been crowned SEC East champs and will play Alabama in the championship game for a second straight season.

That's a gut punch for the Vols, who actually beat the Gators on the field and now will have to watch them play Bama in Atlanta instead of them.  I don't see them showing up at all this week.  This is a team that has been decimated by injuries all season, too, and they are far from full strength right now.

Vanderbilt has a lot to play for.  The Commodores are 5-6 and looking to get to a bowl game for the first time in three seasons under current head coach Derek Mason.  They have put themselves in this position by impressively upsetting Ole Miss 38-17 at home last week as 9.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Rebels by 118 yards in that contest.

Tennessee is off a 63-37 win over Missouri last week when it still had something to play for, but that result has it overvalued here.  And that 26-point win was very misleading as the Vols were actually outgained by 131 yards while giving up a ridiculous 740 total yards to the Tigers.

This Vols' defense has been gashed time and time again on the ground.  They have given up 353 or more rushing yards in four of their last six games, including over 400 yards on the grounds three times during this stretch.  Vanderbilt has one of the best backs in the SEC in Ralph Webb, who is primed for a huge game against this soft, banged-up Tennessee defense.

Five of Vanderbilt's six losses this season have come by single-digits, so they have been competitive week in and week out.  Tennessee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off a cover the previous week.  The Vols are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.  I believe the Commodores earn their way to a bowl game with an outright victory this week, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +8

West Virginia is coming off a 'dream-crushing' 28-56 home loss to Oklahoma last week.  Had they won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the Big 12.  But now they have officially been eliminated as they have two conference losses and the Sooners haven't lost yet in conference play.

"We put a lot into (the Oklahoma) game, and it didn't go the way we wanted it to," Holgorsen said Tuesday. "We're disappointed with it, but we've got a tough one on the road against Iowa State, and you saw what they did to Texas Tech. It's going to be the toughest week of the year, but I'm anxious to see how the guys respond."

I expect the Mountaineers to suffer a hangover effect here and to not even show up at all against Iowa State.  I also think this is one of the more overrated teams in the country due to playing such a soft schedule and winning so many close games to pad their record.  That was pretty evident last week when they took a step up in class and lost to Oklahoma by 28.

Iowa State has been a money-making machine for backers as it has been undervalued week in and week out.  The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes a 3-point loss to Baylor as 17.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Oklahoma State as 14-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Oklahoma as 21-point dogs.  Those three results there show that they can play with the big boys of the Big 12.

But the Cyclones keep getting better and better as they season goes on.  After picking up their first Big 12 victory in a 31-24 win at Kansas, they came through with their best performance of the season last week in a 66-10 blowout of Texas Tech as 3-point home dogs.  They racked up 608 yards of offense while limiting the Red Raiders' potent attack to 306 yards, outgaining them by 302 yards in that contest.

Now it's Senior Day for the Cyclones and they want to win one more game before their season is over as this is their final game, while West Virginia gets to play Baylor next week.  I just think this is a tremendous spot to back the Cyclones as they will be fully engaged, while the Mountaineers are primed to play their worst game of the season given the terrible spot they're in mentally right now.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.  Iowa State is 6-0 ATS in home games off two straight games where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These six trends combine for a 36-1 system backing the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -10

The South Florida Bulls are tied with the Temple Owls for first place in the AAC East Division.  They Owls do have the tiebreaker and would need to lose to East Carolina for the Bulls to have a chance.  But I like the fact that the Bulls play early on Saturday at 12:00 EST while Temple plays at 7:30 EST that night.  So the Bulls know they have to take care of their business first and won't be worrying about what Temple is doing.  They will be 100% focused on beating UCF.

Since losing to Temple, the Bulls have responded in a big way by beating Navy 52-45 at home in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They led that game 42-14 at halftime before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they had their bye week before going on the road and beating Memphis 49-42.  Then they won 35-27 at SMU last week.

UCF is a great story as it went 0-12 last season and then picked up its 6th win with a 24-3 home victory two weeks ago over a Cincinnati team that has clearly quit.  The Knights are just happy with being bowl eligible, and that showed last week as they lost 20-35 at home to Tulsa despite being 1.5-point favorites.  They were thoroughly outplayed by Tulsa as they were outgained by 153 yards.

In fact, the Knights have been an extremely fraudulent team all season.  They have been outgained in each of their last seven games despite finding a way to win four of them.  They are getting outgained by 94.0 yards per game in conference play despite their 4-3 record.

The mismatch in this game is on offense, where the Knights are terrible and the Bulls have one of the best units in the country.  The Knights only average 358 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  The Bulls average 43.2 points per game, 516.2 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this year.

UCF puts up just 312.4 yards per game and 4.5 per play in conference action, while South Florida averages 524.6 yards per game and 7.3 per play in AAC action.  The Bulls average 117 yards per game more than their opponents allow, which is the sixth-best number in the nation.  They had a trio of QB Quinton Flowers, RB Marlon Mack and WR Rodney Adams that is one of the best triplets in the country.

South Florida rolled UCF 44-3 on the road last season as 24.5-point favorites.  The Bulls are every bit as good as they were last year, and while the Knights are improved this season, again their 6-5 record is fraudulent.  Now the Bulls are only 10-point favorites at home in the rematch after being 24.5-point road chalk last year.  There is clearly some value here, especially with what's at stake for the Bulls in the AAC, while UCF is simply content with going to a bowl game.

Plays on home favorites (S FLORIDA) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons, winning by 19.2 points per game on average.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +26

Kentucky will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2010.  The Wildcats have had a great turnaround season after starting 0-2 and going 6-3 the rest of the way.  They clinched their bowl berth with a 49-13 win over Austin Peay last week and didn't have to put much effort into that game at all, saving up for Louisville this week.

The Wildcats are 5-6 the past two seasons going into the Louisville game, needing a win to get bowl eligible.  The played the Cardinals tough in both games as they lost 40-44 in 2014 and 24-38 in 2015.  They fell apart in both of those games late, especially last season as they blew a 24-7 lead and were outscored 31-0 in the second half.

But now the Wildcats won't be playing with so much pressure on them since they already clinched their bowl berth.  They will be sort of 'free-wheeling' it here and playing with house's money.  I expect a big effort from them here as they look to get revenge on Louisville after narrow misses the past two seasons.

Louisville is in a massive letdown spot here off its 10-36 loss to Houston as 17-point favorites last week.  The Cardinals were in perfect position to make the four-team playoff after getting several teams to lose in front of them.  But they couldn't take care of their business, and now with their playoff dreams crushed, I expect a hangover effect here that will not allow them to play up to their full potential.

Kentucky is playing better than it is getting credit for.  It has actually outgained seven of its last nine opponents.  The Wildcats boast a prolific rushing attack that has produced at least 258 yards on the ground in five of their last six games.  They have two stud running backs who have both gone over 1,000 rushing yards on the season.  I think they'll be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack and play keep away from Lamar Jackson.

Louisville is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games off a road loss.  The Cardinals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Kentucky hasn't lost to Louisville by more than 25 points in any of the last nine meetings, making for a 9-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 26-point spread.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

15* Washington/Washington State Apple Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 64

I fully expect a defensive battle in the Apple Cup with what's at stake.  These teams have never had this much riding on the rivalry.  The Pac-12 North title is up for grabs as the winner will be going to the conference championship game.  I expect this game to be played closer to the vest than normal, and for points to be very hard to come by.

Washington boasts one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 17.9 points, 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  It is holding opponents to 10 points, 73 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play below their season averages.

The biggest reason for Washington State's improvement has been the defense.  The Cougars are now above average on this side of the ball for the first time in a long time.  They only give up 25.5 points and 408 yards per game, holding opponents to 6.3 points and 34 yards per game less than their season averages.

Washington State loves to throw the ball, but Washington ranks No. 17 in pass efficiency defense.  The Huskies have held their opponents to 85 yards per game below their season averages in Pac-12 play.  The Cougars rank 49th in pass efficiency defense and have held their conference opponents to 25 yards per game below their season averages.

Just looking at the series history it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings while not once topping 63 combined points.  They have combined for 55, 44, 44, 59, 59, 63, 30 and 29 points in the last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 47.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than this posted total of 64.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WASHINGTON ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Cougars last 15 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* TCU/Texas Big 12 Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -2.5

It's clear by their reaction on social media that the Texas players love Charlie Strong and don't want to see him go.  They are taking responsibility for their struggles this season and not putting the blame on Strong.  I look for them to come up with a huge effort to try and win this game for him in what is a 'rally the troops' type of game for these players.

There's no doubt that Texas can't lose to Kansas, ever, period.  But the the Jayhawks didn't win that game, the Longhorns clearly lost it.  They committed six turnovers to essentially give the game away.  They outgained the Jayhawks by 71 yards in that game after outgaining West Virginia by 153 yards and Texas Tech by 176 the two games prior.

Let's not forget that TCU easily could have lost at Kansas earlier this season, too.  The Horned Frogs only beat the Jayhawks 24-23 as 28.5-point favorites.  But unlike Texas, they were actually outplayed by the Jahawks.  They were outgained by 108 yards in that narrow win over Kansas.

TCU has given a lot of flat efforts here of late, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has been outgained in four of its last six games overall.  It lost 24-27 (OT) at home to Texas Tech, 10-34 at West Virginia, and then last week lost 6-31 at home to Oklahoma State.  That game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs were outgained by 198 yards by the Cowboys.

Texas will not only be motivated to show its support for Strong, but also to get bowl eligible with a win.  TCU can win next week at home against Kansas State and get bowl eligible, so this game is more important for the Longhorns.  Plus, they want revenge from the embarrassing 7-50 road loss to the Horned Frogs last season.

Strong is 11-2 ATS off two more more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.  The Longorns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season.  The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in all games this season.  TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - off a home loss by 14 or more points are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Texas Friday.

15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +11

The NC State Wolfpack sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They would love nothing more than to punch their tickets to the postseason while simultaneously knocking rival UNC out of ACC Coastal Division contention with a win Friday.  But it's not like the Tar Heels have much of a shot to win the Coastal anyway because they would need to win and have Virginia Tech lose to Virginia as 18.5-point home favorites.

I think the value is prime here with NC State because they have lost five of their last six games overall.  Ever since blowing that field goal against Clemson and losing in overtime, they just haven't been the same.  But this is a 'circle the wagons' type of game that the Wolfpack will certainly show up for against their in-state rival.

The Tar Heels seem to just be going through the motions their past two games.  They lost 27-28 as 10.5-point favorites at Duke two weeks ago and were outgained by 64 yards.  Then they were actually outgained by 15 yards against The Citadel last week as 23-point favorites in what was a very misleading final score.

From a matchup standpoint I like the Wolfpack here.  They have an underrated defense that is holding opponents to 58 yards per game less than their season averages.  UNC is giving up 6 more yards per game than its opponents average.  And the Wolfpack defensive line is their strength with their ability to get after opposing quarterbacks.  They should be able to get to Mitch Trubisky and knock him off his spots.

These teams have faced very similar strength of schedules.  In fact, the Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule.  That's important because North Carolina is only outgaining opponents by 43 yards per game while NC State is outgaining them by 62 yards per game on the season.  The talent gap between these teams is much closer than their records would suggest.

This is certainly a rivalry game where you want the underdog.  The underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings with 12 outright upsets over the past 18 seasons!  NC State is 9-1 ATS in road games off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the past three seasons.  Roll with NC State Friday.

15* LSU/Texas A&M Thanksgiving Night Dessert on LSU -6.5

Both of these teams could be lacking motivation. It comes down to which team you trust more, and for me that is clearly LSU, which is still one of the best teams in the country in my opinion despite having four losses. Texas A&M is way more fraudulent despite having a better record at 8-3.

The Aggies have been an overvalued commodity for two months now, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their last three games really have told the story about where this team’s focus is at. They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, lost 28-29 as 7-point home favorites over Ole Miss, and only beat UTSA 23-10 as 27-point home favorites last week.

Things really turned for this team when they lost starting QB Trevor Knight to a season-ending injury against Mississippi State. Backup Jake Hubenak isn’t terrible, but he’s also not the runner that Knight was. Their offense clearly misses that dimension as Knight had rushed for 583 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 per carry before the injury. Hubenak has rushed 31 times for 44 yards, an average of just 1.4 per carry.

LSU has four losses, but it easily could have won all four games. It lost 14-16 to Wisconsin, 13-18 to Auburn after a last-second TD was called back, 10-0 to Alabama in what was a tie game in the fourth quarter, and then 10-16 to Florida last week after the Tigers were stopped from the 1-yard line twice in the closing seconds.

I think that loss to Florida last week has the Tigers undervalued here. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game and didn’t meet expectations. But they probably should have won by two touchdowns when you look at the box score. They outgained Florida 423 to 270 for the game, or by 153 total yards. But they were stopped at the goal line on two separate drives, and Florida converted one of those into a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.

These players love Ed Orgeron, and similarly to when they won last year when Les Miles was expected to get fired, I think they will show up for their interim head coach here. They have responded well from adversity. After that 10-0 loss to Alabama and having their SEC West title dreams crushed, they came back the next week and rolled Arkansas 38-10 on the road while outgaining the Razorbacks by 256 yards.

When you compare common opponents LSU has a big edge. The Tigers are 3-2 against the same five teams that Texas A&M has played while outgaining them by 64.0 yards per game and holding them to 319.4 yards per game. Texas A&M is 2-3 against those same five teams, getting outgained by 66.8 yards per game and giving up 481.0 yards per game.

LSU is by far the supremely talented team in this matchup, and it has big fundamental advantages as well. The Tigers should be able to run all over the Aggies, and their defense should shut them down with a backup QB. The Tigers average 232 rushing yards per game and 6.2 per carry, while the Aggies give up 180 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.

LSU gives up 14.1 points and 308 yards per game on the season, while Texas A&M allows 21.1 points and 428 yards per game. The Tigers only allow 14.6 points and 304.6 yards per game in conference play, while the Aggies give up 26.9 points and 495.3 yards per game against conference opponents.

Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Aggies are 0-7 ATS in November home games over the last three seasons. LSU owns Texas A&M, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Four of those have come with Kevin Sumlin as the head coach in College Station.  Roll with LSU Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio) -7

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are looking to pull off the remarkable feat of starting 0-6 and finishing 6-0.  They currently sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  You can bet they will be fired up to win this game on Senior Night and cap off this amazing run.

Ball State has nothing to play for right now.  It sits at 4-7 on the season after a road loss at Toledo, which was its fourth straight defeat, so it will not be going bowling.  And the Cardinals last played on November 16, while the Redhawks last played on November 12, giving Miami a huge scheduling advantage as it has had nine days off in between games, while Ball State has only had five days off.

It was really clear from the beginning that Miami was better than its 0-6 start as it actually outgained four of its first six opponents despite the record.  And now once the schedule has softened a bit, the Redhawks have taken advantage by going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games with four of those wins coming by double-digits.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Ball State and Miami have played the same four opponents. Ball State is 1-3 against them while losing by 2.5 points per game and giving up 508.0 yards per game defensively.  Miami is 3-1 against them while winning by 5.5 points per game and giving up only 333.0 yards per game defensively.

And defense is clearly where this game will be one as the Redhawks will get stops while the Cardinals will not.  Miami allows just 24.7 points, 347 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  Ball State allows 30.9 points, 474 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this year.

Ball State is 0-6 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two years.  Miami is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their lat five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Redhawks.  Take Miami (Ohio) Tuesday.