Sports Picks & Predictions

Penn St. knew they were getting a good running back when they signed Nicholas Singleton. The freshman has been even better than expected running for 11.1ypc through 3 games. He ran for 12.4ypvc vs Auburn. Would not be surprised to see him break a couple of big ones vs Central Michigan. Penn St. may even be a better passing team than running team. The team is averaging over 100 yards better than the defenses they have faced allow on average. The defense is on the same level, so this is a much better Penn St. team than most think. The Central Michigan defense has given up huge yardage and points vs their 2 FBS opponents as both Oklahoma St. and S. Alabama went for over 500 yards against them. This game is a major blowout. Make the play on Penn St.

My ultimate total situation in NCAAF I bet blindly, because it is that strong. It is 580-318-19 ATS in all games, but even stronger when there is not an FCS team involved. It moves to 506-241-2 ATS! Make the play on the UNDER.

The Minnesota Vikings shocked the Green Bay Packers last week holding them to 7 points. They generated 23 points in that game, but generated close to 400 yards of offensive, indicative of more points. Philadelphia was in a shootout with the Lions where they survived 38-35. I think we are heading for another shootout here. The Vikings faced a team down 3 offensive linemen, and their 3 top receivers from a year ago. It won`t be so easy this week. Especially with a Monday Night week 2 situation that is 37-9 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Green Bay Packers were beaten badly by the Minnesota Vikings in game 1. It was a lot like their opener last year vs the Saints. Green Bay was missing 3 offensive linemen and their top 3 receivers from a year ago. The packers have lost 9 regular season games over the last 3 years, and they are 9-0 SU and ATS in their next game. Chicago surprised San Francisco last week but the game was played in a torrential rainstorm, and the Bears aren't good enough to hang in this one vs a Green Bay team that has dominated them over the years. Lots of situations on the Packers off a loss, and even a few others. I like Green Bay big in this one.

The Jacksonville Jaguars could have easily won last week but instead they settled for a 28-22 loss. The encouraging thing about the Jags offense is new head coach Doug Pederson is having QB Trevor Lawrence throw downfield a lot more. Lawrence finished second last week with an average depth of target of 10.6 yards. Matt Ryan had success in his debut for Indianapolis but 8 trips inside of Jacksonville territory netted them just 20 total points. I think Lawrence will have some success downfield this week vs Indianapolis, and the Jag's fit a situation that is 77-41 ATS. Make the play on Jacksonville.

Last week the Detroit Lions put up 35 points on the Philadelphia Eagles. It wasn't enough to win as they allowed 38, and the game saw 850 total yards. Washington also over-achieved their expected offense, and under-performed on defense. We have a pair of teams here that are heading for another 50+ point combined score. Bigger than all that is a huge 113-53 ATS total situation that has gone decisively to the over. Make the play over the total.

I think these teams both have weapons but the Dolphins defense is going to be one of the top in the league. They were impressive last week allowing New England just 271 total yards, 7 points, and 3 turnovers. Baltimore allowed just 9 points to the Jets. Many will look at the 295 yards passing and say the Ravens are in trouble, but those yards took 59 pass attempts to create, or just 5 ypa, which is well below average. The Jets managed just 9 points. This game is setting up to be a lot more defensive than the total is suggesting, and it is supported by a 138-71 ATS situation to the under. Make the play under the total.

It has been a mixed bag so far for San Diego St. and Utah. They will each take the field at 1-1 so this becomes a crucial game for both teams. San Diego St. has won 10 or more games in 5 of the last 7 years. This has been a defense first team since the start of the 2014 season as the Aztecs are 63-37-3 ATS to the under in their last 113 games.They have allowed fewer than 20ppg over the period. They have faced 12 Pac-12 opponents holding them to a combined 25ppg. Based on the fact that Utah is a 3 TD favorite the under has my interest here. San Diego St. has been a double-digit dog 3 times vs Pac-12 teams and all the games went under the total. They are also in a great historic spot for a low scoring game, as several situations point that way including a 32-3-6 ATS situation on the under.Make the play on the under in this one.

UL Lafayette has opened the season at 2-0. They have faced some soft competition thus far. One thing they have done is not turn the ball over. The Ragin Cajuns own a 5-0 turnover advantage in their first 2 games. Rice was destroyed as expected by USC and then destroyed McNeese St. as expected. That doesn't offer much in the way this game will be played. History has a lot more to say as multiple situations favor a low scoring game led by a 32-3-6 ATS situation playing on the under. Make the play on the under.

This should be a good test for both teams, as both SMU and Maryland are 2-0 but neither has been tested thus far. I was on Maryland in game 1, and I have them listed as a surprise team that over-performs. This is a better team than SMU and the Terps are at home. They are also backed by a situation that is 189-127 ATS. Make the play on Maryland.

There are not a lot of NCAAF totals that get posted at 40 or fewer points. This game is one of them, and rightfully so, and I think it is still significantly high. Iowa has an offense that is significantly below average, while New Mexico has defended quite well. Iowa has a defense that could very well shutout the Lobos, while the Iowa offense is extremely bad. I could easily see the total points here coming in the high 20s, to low 30s. There is historical support as well as this game fits an under situation that is 77-48 ATS. Make the play on the under.

Georgia Southern has run the triple option for many years, but coach Clay Helton has changed that. The Eagles have completely changed the offense from the slow methodical and almost exclusive running game, to a wide open spread the field fast paced passing attack. They are snapping the ball over 80 times a game and has averaged 51 passing attempts per contest. They used that offense to spring a huge upset at Nebraska 45-42. The Eagles put up 666 total yards vs the P5 Nebraska team. UAB is a solid defensive team, but Georgia Southern is going to score some points here as a double-digit dog, and UAB will be moving the ball against a very pedestrian defense. I don't think the public or the odds makers have caught up to this extreme change yet. Make the play on the over.

Tulane and Kansas St. come into this game at 2-0, so the winner will emerge 3-0 and feeling pretty good. Both these teams have faced offenses that are not very challenging, and through 2 games each, in total 4 games they have combined to allow just 22 total points. Both offenses are led by the run as they have combined for 171 runs vs just 92 passes. I think the clock will be moving as each tries to take control with the running game. This game fits a lot of situations that are strong indicators of a low scoring game, one of which is 32-3-6 ATS to the under. I favor a low scoring game here and will make the play on the under.

I was waiting to see who would be named the starter for Temple. It has been decided that EJ Warner will start (Kurt Warner's son). He earned it last week with a good performance. Rutgers is not nearly good enough to be favored by this many points on the road. This is going to be a low scoring game, and the points are just not reflecting the QB change. Make the play on Temple.

This game fits a huge 101-44 ATS situation. Make the play on Indiana.

This game fits a situation that is 50-12-1 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Seattle Seahawks have arguably the biggest home field advantage in the NFL. Since the start of the 2010 season they have a winning outright record as a home dog, and are 16-6-1 ATS. Since the start of the 2012 season the Seahawks have lost 1 home game by 7 points or more (9 points). Very hard to go against them with a line this big on a Monday Night at home, facing their former QB Russell Wilson. Make the play on Seattle.

This game fits a situation that is 57-15 ATS, and the play is on Dallas.

I think the LA Chargers are going to be one of the top offenses this season in the NFL, if not the best. I also think the coaching changes and the money they spent on defense is going to elevate this team significantly on that side of the ball. The Raiders play with a lot of variance and a lot of people are high on them because they have Devante Adams now. Chargers fit a 47-14 ATS week 1 situation. I still see the Chargers as clearly the better team in this one. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

Baker Mayfield gets to start against his old team the Cleveland Browns. He has talked revenge, but I don't think he has a lot of playmakers in this offense, and if anyone knows his weaknesses, and will be ready to exploit them, it is Cleveland. The Browns will start Jacoby Brissett at QB. He looked horrible in Miami but the Dolphins offensive line was brutal and he will have better protection here. He also has Amari Cooper to throw to. Cleveland has some great young CB's that were good a year ago, and should progress more this season. Cleveland is the better team, and I will make this pick on Cleveland.

This game fits an opening week total situation that is 47-19 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game will be avoided by most bettors. When you have lines this high no one really wants to get involved. I never look at games that way. I look at opportunities in the marketplace that show historic value and that is the case here. When a team plays to a line of -51.5 or higher they are 38-54-1 ATS. When you eliminate FCS vs FBS games that becomes 1-7 ATS the last 29 games. Yes, these games are pretty rare but the results are strongly in favor of the gigantic dog. I will make the play on Hawaii.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Boston College

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on East Carolina.

A game with a line of -30 or more points and a total of fewer than 50 points have played 82-38-1 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Appalachian St.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Texas San Antonio.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Southern Miss.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes will enter the 2022 season with by far the best offense in the country. Notre Dame has a lot returning fro a highly ranked stop unit a year ago, but there is some concerns as to what that actually means. Notre Dame played a lot of games last season vs a team with an injured or below average QB. How does that translate when they face a highly probable Heisman Trophy candidate with lots of speed and weapons all over the field? The Ohio St. offense averaged 45.7ppg a year ago, and that number should increase this season. Ohio St. had a down defensive season 2 years ago, became significantly better than average last year, and should be even better this year as they return 8 starters. I see a huge advantage in this game for Ohio St. playing at home and better on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Ohio St.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

Mike Locksley took over the Maryland program back in 2019, and last year the Terps had their first winning record at 7-6. His team has not had a lot of opportunities vs subpar teams, but when he has faced them he has shown no mercy in running the score up. His team has been a double-digit favorite just 4 times and he has beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 56.5-5.8, or by over 50 points per game. Maryland has a lot of weapons on offense, including an underrated and experienced QB in Taulia Tagovailoa. Buffalo was terrible offensively last year and with 1 starter back in the offensive line, things could get worse. Make the play on Maryland.

Oklahoma St. will begin a new era as they open their 2022 season vs Central Michigan. Spencer Sanders is an improving duel threat QB, but his offensive line took a hit, as did the running back situation. It won't be as easy this year. The one thing that happened last year is the rebranding of the Oklahoma St. philosophy. They won games on defense. The receivers are young and talented, but I think the offense will be better as the season goes on. The Oklahoma St. defense is going to be strong up front, but has some question marks in the secondary. Central Michigan QB Daniel Richardson lost his top 2 receivers from a year ago. Lew Nichols will be asked to carry the load as he had 2,186 total yards (1,848 on the ground) and 18 TDs a year ago. I think he will get a heavy load but the Cowboy's excel up front. I think the clock will be moving quickly here, and I like the under.

The Forty Niners play the Rams better and tougher than any other team. They are even in a lot of ways and I consider this game a toss-up. The Rams are home but if you look at the last game played in LA, the crowd was pretty balanced, so I don't expect home field to be worth anything. The Rams are very good playing a base defense, and they realize vs San Francisco that is the way they play them. They did so about 20% of the time on the season, but 52% of the time vs San Francisco, with relative success. The Rams have somewhat of an issue. They have a #3 ranked defense in the first half, but that falls to 13th in the third quarter and 29th in the 4th. The Niners have already experienced that themselves in the last meeting. Cooper Kupp could be a problem. The Niners rank 31st in the league vs #1 WRs, and Kupp went for 118 and 122 yards in the first 2 meetings. Despite that, it wasn't enough to win. They have limited Higby as they have been very good vs TEs al season. I look for a lot of zone defense from San Francisco. Stafford has 12 INTs this season vs zone defenses, and just 3 vs man. The Niners are every bit the equal to the Rams. You probably heard how hard it is to bet a team 3 times in a row in the same season. There has been 3 such incidents where a team won the first 2 meetings, and met for the third time as a dog. Two of the 3 won outright. Small sample size but it destroys the theory that a team can't win all 3. I think the Niners add to the demise of that theory. Make the play on San Francisco.

The final game for the right to be in the Superbowl. The Bengals biggest win of the season came against the Chiefs. A lot has broken right for the Bengals including the 3rd easiest schedule, and favorable playoff match ups with two teams that were worse than they were. Their only top 15 win on the season came against Kansas City, and it took a lot for that to happen, and it was at home. It took a conversion on 3rd and 27, a called back kick off return TD that would have made the score 35-17, and several Kansas City defensive penalties to keep drives going. Additionally, Chase had a game for the ages. Moreover, Hill and Kelce missed the prior week with covid and did not appear to be up to peak conditioning or health. I don't think this game will be close, and I would be surprised if the Chiefs don't put up 40 plus points once again. I don't see the Bengals offensive line holding up in this one as they were exposed last week, and if they are exposed vs the Chiefs again, it will be a blowout. I cap this game at Kansas City -13, and it may be more than that. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Buffalo Bills are an alluring team after last week. Buffalo scored on every drive except a kneel down on their last possession. They played a perfect game with 7 straight Td drives, no punts, no turnovers. So they immediately become a sexy pick. The Chiefs may have something to say about that. Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City offense can score in bunches and quickly, and while the offense seems to be the talking point, the defense has better and healthier players, and looks completely different than it did in the beginning of the season. They have become a bonafide top 10 defense. While the Bills offense was perfect last week, the defense has been the strength of this team, and while it looks like both offenses are clicking right now, I think the defenses are going to have more to say than the offenses. This total is suggesting a shootout, and I don't think this game gets there. It fits a playoff total situation that is 39-17 ATS, and I will play under the total.

The NFL playoffs have gone through Tom Brady it seems like forever. The defending Super Bowl Champs took a 31-0 lead over Philadelphia to get here, and had that look once again. The Rams however are a much bigger challenge, but until someone dethrones Brady, I have to see it. Matthew Stafford was brought in to take the Rams to the next level, and he has been mostly good, but Stafford has a wide range of expectations. When he is good he can be really good, but he also has a dark bad side and can be really bad. Brady has lost a lot of his offensive firepower as Brown and Godwin are out. It somehow doesn`t seem to matter as the Bucs offense looked crisp last week, and the defense shutdown the Eagles explosive ground game. I think the experience the Bucs have from last year will go a long way in determining the outcome, and Brady is seldom rattled regardless of pressure, which the Rams certainly can provide. I just think the Bucs have the edge in the right places, and until someone can dethrone Brady no matter what it may look like, I`m not going against him. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Green Bay Packers are 13-3 with Rodgers for the 3rd season in a row. That means they don't lose a lot, and in those 3 years under LaFleur they are 9-0 SU and ATS off a loss. The Packers are going to benefit greatly having extra rest. They will have several high-caliber starters back on the field, so expect them to be better. The Niners struggle with the deep ball and Rodgers is primed to exploit that. San Francisco just doesn't have a stand-out in the secondary to cover Adams, and they may turn to more zone coverage, but Rodgers will eat that alive. A team that won their playoff game on the road on a Sunday and are on short rest playing Saturday are 17-32 ATS since 2009. Green Bay went 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS vs playoff teams this year, the best mark in the league. This will be the third straight road game for San Francisco, and 6th in their last 8 games. Aaron Rodgers wins a lot of games because he simply does not turn the ball over, and a team in the playoffs that force more turnovers per game is 33-15-1 ATS in the playoffs. Rodgers owns a 42-21-1 ATS mark off a loss. Green Bay usually has a special teams disadvantage, but the Niners are as bad as they are. Garoppolo is battling injuries as are several of the Forty Niners. Green Bay missed their opportunity to get to the Super Bowl the last 2 years, and I think they are going to be plying at an ultra high level for this one. There is no doubt which QB I want on my side in this one. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Tennessee Titans used an NFL record 91 players this season. Despite all the injuries they still managed to finish the regular season as the #1 seed in the AFC. The Titans have taken a lot of flack for being one of the worst #1 overall seeds in the NFL playoffs ever. Regardless how you spin it, this team has faced 4 of the 8 teams still in the playoffs and beat them all. (SF, LA,Buffalo, and KC. They have a very favorable match up vs Cincinnati. The Bengals were lucky to survive the wild card round, and I think they are going to have a lot more trouble here. Tennessee made great strides this season against the pass. They finished 3oth a year ago, and 11th this year. Their adjusted sack rate went from 31st to 10th, and their hurry rate from 30th to 10th. They have accomplished this by blitzing less than 20% of the time, and Burrow has been far better against a blitz than a 4 man rush this season. Tennessee got to Mahomes 4 times a season high. They also got to Stafford 5 times, which tied a season high, and Tagovialoa 4 times, and he wasn't dropped more than twice all season. The difference has been the addition of Bud Dupree. When he plays the numbers increase dramatically. If Cincinnati can get pressure with just 4 rushers, the Bengals are going to be in a lot of trouble, and with RT Riley Reiff ruled out, and another suspect offensive lineman in Isaiah Prince, the Bengals should be able to pressure Burrow with 4. The Bengals offense improves dramatically when Brown and Jones play the entire game. When Brown plays they are 11-2, when Brown and Jones play they are 7-1, so they are 1-3 without Brown, and 5-4 without both. They will have both for this one. Henry is not much of a factor, except in one area, he provides big play scoring potential, but they have gotten along fine without him. Cincinnati has played 5 straight turnover free games in a row, but has been out-gained by 3 of them. I like Tennessee in this one.

The Arizona Cardinals will meet the LA Rams for thee third time this season. They have split two games, so it is fitting that the winner here moves on. Arizona was 7-0 to start the season and this is what has changed. At 7-0 they scored 31 or more points in 6 of them, since with Murray at QB thy have scored 31 or more points just 1 time in 8 games. Murray had 3 rushing TDs in the first 3 weeks,just 2 since. The defense allowed more than 20 points 1 time at 7-0, and in all 7 games Murray started since. Murray vs the Rams in week 14 had a 72.1 passer rating which was his 2nd worse of the year. Murray had a passer rating of 104 or higher in 6 of the first 7 games, just twice since. The Rams are winning despite the sudden burst if INT thrown by Matthew Stafford.The Rams have made 9 turnovers in the last 4 weeks are despite of it are 3-1, with the only loss by 3 points in overtime, and they are 5-1 in their last 6. Arizona is the most frequent blitzing team in the league but Stafford ranks #1 against the blitz in 140 drop backs. Arizona blitzes 33.6% of the time. That isn't going to go well for them unless they step out of character. Murray will be starting his first playoff game, and a QB making his playoff debut against a QB that isn't have gone 17-38-1 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this year). If this is a teams first playoff game in at least 2 seasons and going against a team that is a repeat playoff team they are 21-39-1 ATS. If they are on the road it gets worse where they are 6-20-1 ATS. If the line is -5.5 to +5.5 they are 0-9 ATS! Make the play on the LA Rams.

Pittsburgh limped into the playoffs as Indianapolis stumbled vs the Houston Texans, opening the door for Pittsburgh to creep into the playoffs. This looks like the last time around for Ben Roethlisburger. All his numbers are in decline and the Steelers offense has managed just 20.4ppg on the season. The Steelers have been out-gained by 35 yards per contest, and now have to deal with a Kansas City team that has rediscovered their elite offense and has averaged 35.4ppg in their last 5, while the defense has allowed 10 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7. NFL playoff games with a home favorite of 10 points or more are 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS since 2008, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 where they have won by an average of 18ppg. Make the play on Kansas City.

Mr. East Sun Jan 16th, 2022 4:30 pm EST Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NFL SUNDAY THROWBACK
Expert Analysis: The Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco used to be arch enemies as they met in the playoffs what seems like every season. It has been 27 years since they have played each other in the post-season. Perhaps this should be the Madden game, as he and Pat Summerall called 8 consecutive Dallas vs San Francisco games over a 6 year period in the '90s, which included 3 straight NFC Championship Games. Dallas has for the most part been consistently good all season, while the Niners found themselves in the second half of the season. San Francisco tied with Tampa Bay for the best record in the NFL in their last 9 games at 7-2, which is better than Dallas. The Niners running game has become elite, and that is the most vulnerable area of the Dallas defense. The 49ers have had 10 drives that used at least 7 minutes of clock on the season, and have had drives of over 11 and 13 minutes. The Dallas defensive front has allowed 100 rushing yards in 11 of its final 12 games. The Dallas offense is going to come down to pressure. San Francisco defends the run very well, as they do short passes, where they rank 4th. They are however dead last defending deep passes, and if they give Prescott time to look deep, Amari Cooper is going to win the game for Dallas. The Niners have been flagged 23 times for defensive pass interference and a total of 367 yards. Worst in the league. Lamb has not been nearly close to the level of Cooper on deep throws. Prescott has thrown 5 of his 7 INT when looking for Lamb deep. The good news for San Francisco is they play a lot of cover 3 to hide their deep pass vulnerability and Prescott has just 3 TDs and 3 INTs facing a cover 3 defense. It will come down to how much pressure the Niners front 7 can get on Prescott. Dallas has 34 offensive holding calls against them this year top in the league, and Dallas has 2 wins vs Philadelphia to show for their games against teams that made the playoffs, and losses to everyone else outside of New England who wasn`t the same team early in the season at 2-4. I think the Niners have a better shot at dictating the tempo, and the line of scrimmage and running dogs in the playoffs tend to perform very well. When 2 teams meet in the wildcard game that did not make the playoffs the previous season the home team is 3-13 SU and 2-14 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.
*************************************************************************************

The Philadelphia Eagles did enough to make it to the playoffs with a 9-8 record. Some of the numbers inside of that record speak volumes. The Eagles did not beat a winning team all season. They also finished the season at 0-6 SU vs playoff teams where they lost by an average of 13.3ppg. Against everyone else they were 9-2 and won by an average of 13.2ppg. That is an amazing 26.5ppg swing, and the highest such differential in NFL playoff history. The Bucs have been a lethal team playing at home where they have lost just 1 time all season. They beat Philly on the road earlier this season 28-22 in a game they led 28-7 and held Philadelphia to 5 consecutive possessions where they generated 0 first downs and 28 total yards. The Bucs obviously pulled back, but that won't be the case in the playoffs. This will be Jalen Hurts first playoff teams which is usually a harbinger of what to expect. A first time playoff QB facing a team that does not have a first time QB is 17-36-1 ATS since 2004! Moreover a playoff team that won fewer than 6 games the previous season (Philadelphia was 4-11-1 last year), are 13-31 ATS in the playoffs the following season. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Buffalo Bills split a pair of games in the regular season. The Patriots won in a game that featured extreme winds and did so by passing just 3 times the entire game. Buffalo dominated the rematch in every facet of the game on the road in New England just 3 weeks ago. The Bills have been the best NFL team this season from a statistical standpoint. They have out-gained their opponents by 109 yards per game, and a full yard per play. Josh Allen has had a very good season, but not a great one, but he has a dimension that makes him hard to play against. He is a highly skilled runner, and can make plays with his legs. Since beating Buffalo in the wins, the Patriots just have not looked the same. They have played 4 times and the only team they beat was Jacksonville. They lost the other 3 games by a minimum of 9 points. I think Buffalo has real chance to come out of the AFC and represent then in the Super Bowl. There is a lot more talent on both sides of the ball, and it will show at home in 5 degree weather, which I think impacts Mac Jones more than Allen. Playoff teams with a QB starting his first playoff game vs one that has experience, are 17-36-1 ATS since 2004. Make the play on Buffalo.

The path to the playoffs was completely different for these teams. The Bengals won to put them in a tie for the division lead in week 15. They took the division lead the following week, and clinched the division in week 17. The cardiac Raiders were in 11th place in the AFC entering week 15. They had a margin of error of 0, and proceeded to win their final 4 games by a combined 12 points. It went all the way down to the final play of their final game to get in. The Bengals took advantage of an easy schedule that saw them face just 6 teams that made the playoffs out of a 17 game schedule. When you take a look at the stats this game is pretty even, but the Bengals by virtue of their big win against Kansas City where the offense looked scary good, has really impacted this game. The Bengals are going to struggle to stop Jacobs. Jacobs ranked 3rd in the NFL in broken tackles (56), and the Bengals defense allowed more broken tackles than any team besides the lowly Detroit Lions. The Raiders have another weapon in Renfro that who finished 4th among all WRs in broken tackles. The outcome of this game is going to come down to how much pressure the Raiders can put on Burrough. Burrough only played 3 games vs top 10 defenses, and had 6 vs bottom 10 defenses. He was sacked 50 times, and threw made a lot of mistakes. Maxx Crosby may be the key for the Raiders defense. While he had just 8 sacks, he led the NFL with 51 pressures, and if he has success putting pressure on Burrough he is likely going to make some costly mistakes. I think this game is a lot closer than it looks, and the Raiders have a lot of experience in close games having gone 7-2 on the season in one-possession games. That includes 4-0 in overtime games, while the Bengals were just 4-5 in one score games. The weather should not be a factor with the temperature around freezing and light winds. Make the play on Las Vegas.

CFP Championship Game - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

It is not surprising to see Alabama and Georgia in the Championship game. They have been the best teams all season so it all comes done to one game to win it all. Georgia was nearly a 7 point favorite in the SEC Championship Game. That was based on the full body of work of both these teams. Suddenly the line is Georgia by 2.5. That means the full body of work has been replaced by recency bias and a 41-24 Alabama win in the SEC Title game. I'm not sure any game is worth 4 points on the line, especially when you look at the aftermath. Alabama beat Cincinnati soundly 27-6. Cincinnati was just too small up front and the Alabama running game ate them alive. Brian Robinson went for 204 yards. He went nowhere vs Georgia as he generated 55 yards on 16 attempts. Alabama lost John Mechie in the Georgia game. Metchie had 6 catches for 97 yards and a TD before departing with an ACL injury. Alabama has secondary issues. Josh Jobe is out, and Jalyn Armar-Davis left the Cincinnati game with a hip injury. The Alabama offensive line saw Emil Elkiyor leave the Cincinnati game with a shoulder injury, and his back up is a freshman. Chris Owens left with a leg injury, and Darian Dalcourt is banged up as well. Alabama played its best game of the season in the first meeting, and Georgia their worst. Alabama needed the game more, and played like it. The entire 1st meeting came down to Alabama scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter. Think about the fact that Georgia allowed 17 or fewer points in every other game this season. Alabama didn't sustain drives as 28 points came on 3 drives totaling 14 plays, and a pick-6. Mechie and Williams combined for 281 yards and 3 TDs, and Mechie left the game. They will focus on Williams, and expect a lot of pressure on Young. George Pickens will be as healthy as he has been all season for Georgia, and he could be a huge factor. Alabama has had pass protection issues at times this season, and with a banged up offensive line, and a Georgia defense that is going to seek revenge, it will be different this time. The longest running play by either team in the first meeting was 15 yards. The memory of game 1 makes Georgia a tough sell. Everything went wrong in that game, and after watching Georgia manhandle Michigan, that more closely resembles this team than the debacle vs Alabama. Make the play on Georgia.

Saturday January 8th, 2022

  Top Side Play · [470] Philadelphia Eagles

    Sat Jan 8th, 2022 8:15pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

While there is still a chance the Kansas City Chiefs can overtake the Tennessee Titans for the number 1 overall seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs the line has been radically changed for that purpose. The fact that Tennessee is going against Houston makes the likelihood a lot smaller. The bigger thing in play here is the over-adjustment to the line is well noted in NFL late season games where a team that is eliminated from the playoffs facing a team that is still jockeying for position tends to go the way of the under dog. Beyond that a team with a lower winning percentage in the final game of the season is 254-198-10 ATS covering 56.2% of all games. Make the play on Denver.

The final bowl game of the season prior to the National Championship game takes place tonight as LSU (6-6) takes on Kansas St. (7-5). LSU has ended the short-lived Ed Orgeron era. Following a perfect 15-0 National Championship season, the Bayou Bengals have been just 11-11. What this team looked like at the beginning of the season is completely different than the team that will be on the field tonight. Injuries, opt-outs, transfers, and academic causulties has devastated this roster that now has just 40 or so scholarship players. Kansas St. is heading the other way as QB Skylar Thompson will start his 4oth game for Kansas St. The offense is much better when he plays, and the defense is solid. Kansas St. lost their final 2 games without Thompson despite allowing 20 and 22 points. Without Thompson the Wildcats were 5-22 on 3rd down and 1-4 on 4th down. Brad Davis will be the interim coach for LSU tonight, and the coaching advantage is in favor of Kansas St. The more motivated team is Kansas St. I think the Wildcats control this game start to finish on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Kansas St.

There is a pretty good chance that Tennessee will have Julio Jones and A.J. Brown back on the field Sunday. This should add a lot more firepower to the Titans offense. Both sides have some minor covid issues, but most appear will be resolved by game-time. Miami has rattled off 7 straight wins, and turnover margin has been the biggest reason, as their opponents have averaged 2 turnovers per game in the last 7. A good part of that is random, so don't expect the same numbers going forward. The Titans have committed 4+ turnovers in 3 of its last 5 games, and that won't continue either. What it does do is set up a turnover situation that plays on certain recent turnover differentials, that is 137-72 ATS. It favors the Titans this week. Make the play on Tennessee.

This is a game that feature a long winning streak by the Chiefs. That usually has the effect of making odds-makers over valuing the team on the long streak. There are a lot of very strong situations favoring the Bengals in this game. One is to play against a road favorite of -4 points or more, from game 12 on if they are favored by 4 or more points. Those teams are 1-19-1 ATS. Make the play on Cincinnati.

There is no longer playoff hopes for either the Chicago Bears or the NY Giants. Both teams are off yet another disappointing season, as the rebuild in Chicago and New York seems to still be a long way off. Each team is dealing with extensive roster issues as the injury bug has plagued both teams, so it is a matter of will here that will have a lot of input on the winner of this game. I just don`t see the Bears being just about a TD and extra point better than anyone right now. The Bears own 5 wins on the season, and 3 of those have come by 3 points or fewer. It has been nearly 3 months since the Bears won a game by 7 or more points. Make the play on the NY Giants.

Baylor at 11-2 may be one of the most under-appreciated teams in the country. Right there with them is Ole Miss. One huge step toward winning this game is that The Ole Miss elite QB, Matt Corral is playing. I think he has truly been one of the most important players on any team this season. Ole Miss has been showing up big for bowl games as the Rebel's are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. This game fits the coaches experience advantage over their opposing coach, and for Baylor Coach Aranda this will be his first ever bowl. Ole Miss had 3 WR's banged up in some crucial games, but are finally healthy and that means a strong offense should be stronger. The QB edge is huge here and that is the most important player on the field. Make the play on Ole Miss.

It is going to be hard for Ohio St. to bring their "A" game despite the fact that this is the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes lost to Oregon at home, and fell to Michigan in their season finale for the first time in years. A trip to the playoffs were lost in those 2 games. The defense is not up to the level this team has achieved in prior years as 4 opponents went for 30+ against Ohio St., while the elite offense was limited by the better defenses they faced. The offense will be without 2 of their top 3 WR in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. The pair combined for 25 of the 40 Ohio St. passing TD (62.5%), as well as 2,000 receiving yards of the 4300 generated by the Ohio St. passing game. They have also lost their leader in sacks in Haskell Garrett, and they will be missing their top offensive tackle. Utah opened the season losing twice in its first 3 games to BYU and San Diego St. They also blew a 10 point lead to Oregon st. That loss seemed to bring this team together as they went on to finish 6-0 beating Oregon twice, as well as UCLA. They averaged 40ppg in the 5 contests allowing just 16 and vs Oregon twice and UCLA won by a combined score of 120-41. Uth has a very strong bowl history as they are 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS. That includes 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS as a dog. Make the play on Utah.

Notre Dame comes into this game having won their last 4 games by a combined score of 162-23. That is about as good as it gets. The problem is the competition was awful other than Virginia but the Cavs were without their dynamic QB in that game. The role will be reversed as they take on Oklahoma St. who missed qualifying for the playoffs by inches. This time it is Notre Dame missing some key pieces, including coach Kelly who took the job at LSU. Moreover, the Irish will be without star RB Kyren Williams, as well as their top defender in DB Kyle Hamilton. The Irish have severely under-achieved in Neww Year's 6 or BCS Bowls. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS. Oklahoma St. lost to Baylor 21-16 without RB Warren, but the defense has been ultra elite. They allow just 278 yards per game and 16.8ppg. They rank #3 in the country holding opposing offenses to 146 yards per game below their season average. Additionally they have recorded a nation's best 53 sacks including 32 in their last 5 games. I like Oklahoma St. in this one.

It would be easy to look at Iowa at 10-3 and Kentucky at 9-3 and figure Kentucky played in the SEC so they must have had a much tougher schedule. That would be a problem because Iowa played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Looking at the Kentucky 9 wins I just don't see anything impressive, and the strength of schedule Iowa faced is considerably stronger. Kentucky relies heavily on a potent ground game, but Iowa has allowed 3.2 yards per carry on the season, and this defense is going to be fresh coming into this contest. The Iowa offense does not scare anyone, as the Hawkeyes have had trouble moving the ball most of the season. Iowa is very good at turning their opponent over. Kentucky struggled to move the ball themselves vs better teams. It comes down to turnovers and the battle in the trenches and I see Iowa having the edge in both. Bowl coaching situation adds to the mix. Make the play on Iowa.

This game is purely situational. It fits a total situation that is 33-7 ATS in bowl games. Make the play on the under.

The last time Georgia took the field they were manhandled by the Alabama passing attack. Young is an elite QB with a lot of weapons and that may be the only team in America that could beat the Georgia defense. I think Georgia is aching for another shot at Alabama, and are going to be a handful in this game. Remember Georgia gave up 83 points all season, and I think you are going to see Michigan get completely shutdown in this one. The Wolverines finally got over the hurdle of beating Ohio St. The question is if the moment is bigger than this team, and if they can solve the elite Georgia defense. Don't expect anything close to what happened in the Alabama game. Michigan is very vulnerable to the defensive personnel of Georgia, and they will be in the Michigan backfield all game, and I really think this one could get ugly. The Bulldogs are deep on both sides of the ball and I think they run ll over Michigan, especially in the 2nd hlf when the punishing ground game takes over. Make the play on Georgia.

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been a college football playoff fixture throughout the tenure of Nick Saban. They will take on an unbeaten Cincinnati team that may just have the secondary to cover some of the outside weapons that Alabama possesses. One of those weapons will be missing from this game as John Mechie went down with a torn ACL. The Tide has not been without close calls this season. They have played 4 games where they did not win by more than 7 points, the most since 2014. The last 4 times in the Saban era the Tide played 3 or more games where they did not win by more than 7 points have not turned out as well as when they didn`t. The 4 years it occurred they were out-scored by their opponent in the playoffs by 3 points per game. Cincinnati has the back side of the defense that could certainly give the elite Alabama passing game enough trouble to make this a tight contest. Cincinnati went to Notre Dame and built a 17-0 halftime lead on their way to a 24-13 win. No team on their schedule topped 28 points and just 2 scored more than 21. Alabama is off their best game of the season as they manhandled Georgia. I don`t expect a duplicate here. Make the play on Cincinnati.

This game is based on a very strong 45-11 ATS Bowl total situation. The play is on the over.

Unlike Rutgers, Central Michigan was practicing and planning to play against Boise St. That game was canceled and C. Michigan volunteered to play Washington St. in the Sun Bowl. I think the match up here is going to favor a lot of scoring. I`m surprised this game is still sitting in the 50s. I see this game approaching 70. The Washington St. offense took off late in the season as the Cougars averages 35.5ppg in their last 4 games, and just 24.4ppg prior to that. Central Michigan has done the same. The Chip`s last 4 games saw them average 41ppg! I think the opportunity lies here for C. Michigan to hang tight, win outright, or get a backdoor cover. Make the play on Central Michigan.

Wake Forest had a record setting year, and while this appears like it could be a letdown game, it is just the opposite. Wake Forest is glad to be able to get rewarded to a Bowl game that appeared as if it was not going to happen. The weakness for Wake Forest has been the defense. A closer look certain tells the story of what to expect here. I think most won't pick up on this. Wake allowed 34 points or more in 7 of its games, but those were against mostly potent or at least average to above averages opposing offenses. When they faced mediocre offensive teams (Old Dominion, Florida St., Duke, BC, Norfolk St., and even a good offense in Virginia, none of the 6 teams scored more than 17 points against them. Enter Rutgers. Rutgers didn't practice for 3 weeks. They also had 5 players sign with agents that will not be eligible for this game. Rutgers opened the season at 3-0, and then the competition went up. They were 2-7 from that point on. Against their 6 strongest opponents they combined to get out-scored 223-58! That is an average score of 9.7-39 or just about an average loss of 30ppg. Now they play without a full compliment of players that didn't practice for 3 weeks, and have just a few days of practice against an elite offense, and I don't see them staying within 3 TD. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Both these teams finished the regular season at 8-4. Their 8-4 record is not as good as their stats. They out-gained their opponents by 141 yards per game on the season, and the defense is ultra elite allowing a stingy 4.2 yards per play. Arizona St. will not be able to run the ball here as the Badgers allow just 2.2 yards per carry on the season, and they are also 1 yard better defending the pass than their schedule of opponents generated. Arizona St. lost their top 2 running backs as they opted out as well as a pair of players in their secondary. Wisconsin also fits the bowl coaching experience situation that has been money in bowls for a long time including this year. Make the play on Wisconsin.

It was a disappointing year for North Carolina with their 6-6 finish. QB Sam Howell came back and the Heels thought they would be a top 10 team, but it didn't pan out. The good news Sam Howell is playing in the bowl game. South Carolina also finished 6-6. The heels as a 6-6 team had a 1 yard advantage over SC from the line of scrimmage per play. SC is also losing their top RB and top defensive player for this game. The SEC has yet to win a bowl game as of 12/28 (0-4). North Carolina has a huge advantage in the running game as they are elite, and SC is awful. This game also fits the bowl coach experience advantage. Mack Brown is +22 the biggest differential of any bowl. These coaches are 134-92-1 ATS including 12-5 ATS this year through 12/28. Make the play on North Carolina.

For a Bowl game on December 29th this has all the makings of a New Yea's Day type bowl. Both these teams were on the cusp of the playoffs. Getting to the game, both teams have a few opt outs, and I consider a slight edge to Oklahoma on the advantage that has created. Both coaches have moved on so Oregon will be led by Bryan McClendon, and Oklahoma by Bob Stoops. I give the coaching edge to Stoops. I also think the QB match up favors Oklahoma. I would take Williams over Brown every time. Oregon started the season challenged by Fresno St. and went to Ohio St. and pulled the shocking upset. It looked at the time like Oregon was an elite team with a strong chance at a playoff spot. They were 4-0 and suffered their own shocking loss to Stanford 31-24 in OT. They played arguably the best Pac-12 team late in the season in Utah twice, and lost by a combined score of 76-17, and that was it for the Ducks. I like the match up here in favor of the Sooners. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Iowa St. began the season ranked in the top 10. This was supposed to be the year Iowa St. broke through, with a legitimate chance to win the Big-12, and qualify for the playoffs. Right from the very start trouble showed itself. The Cyclones barely got by FCS Northern Iowa 16-10, an proceeded to lose to Iowa 27-17. The net result was a highly disappointing 7-5 finish. Now the Cyclones lose Breece Hall who has opted out, and he was the main cog in the offense as the Cyclones running game was potent. QB Brock Purdy, a 4 year starter did not have the tear most expected as the Cyclone's passing game was just a tick above average generating 7.9 yards per attempt, to a schedule of teams that combined to allow 7.6. Clemson started the season slowly on offense. Through 7 games they averaged just 15.2ppg and stood at 4-3. The offense grew from that point on and Clemson averaged 36.3ppg in finishing the season 5-0. The defense remains strong as no team scored more than 27 points on them all season. I like Clemson in this one.

This game will be played in New York City. The weather looks to be fine with some showers in the morning, and in the 40s. Virginia Tech is one of those teams with significant opt outs. As it looks right now QB Braxton Burmeister, WR Tre Turner, DT Jordan Williams, DE Amari Barno, CB Jermaine Waller, and OG Lecitus Smith have all opted out. That will make for a tough game for the Hokies as they barely qualified for a bowl at full strength at 6-6. Speaking of barely qualified the Hokies did not have a win all season vs a team with a winning record. Maryland got pounded by the elite teams on their schedule. They lost to Iowa, Ohio St., Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan St., and Penn St. They beat everyone on their level, and with all the players out for Virginia Tech, the Hokies are simply not on their level entering this game. Make the play on Maryland.

West Virginia struggled this season when the offense had the ball. It is going to get a lot more difficult in this games vs the #4 rated Minnesota defense. Making that even more difficult is their best offensive player Leddie Brown has opted out and won't play. Minnesota has really had injury issues at running back. Mohamed Ibrahim was lost in game 1. Tyson Potts was lost in the Purdue game. Bryce Williams went down. Cam Wiley entered the portal, Despite all that Ky Thomas, and Mar'Keise Irving have down exceptionally well. The pair has generated 1,250 rushing yards on just 259 attempts. Tanner Morgan has not had a good year, but the continued success of the ground game has him throwing for 8.2 yards per attempt. West Virginia has lost the heart of their running attack and Minnesota has the #15 rated pass defense in the country. They have held their last 6 opponents to 250 total yards on average, and held all opposing offenses to 96 yards below their season average, ranking #5. I see a lot of advantages here for the Gophers, make the play on Minnesota.

This is a very interesting game. I don't think Mike Leech has ever accepted being booted out at Texas Tech. It was probably a bad move on the part of the school. Since Leach left the Red Raiders have not completed any of their last 12 seasons above .500 in the Big-12 Conference games. Bowl games are about motivation, and I think this game is a priority for Miss St. and the players are going to hear about it every day. Miss St. played a very strong schedule that included 6 ranked teams and finished 3-3. They lost to Arkansas in the last :22 seconds after missing 3 FG in the game, and in losses to Memphis and LSU they combined to out-gain those teams by 366 total yards. The Bulldogs defense despite the elite schedule of opponents held opposing offenses to 75 yards per game fewer than the offensive averages they faced, top 10 in the country. They had a yardage edge in 4 of their 5 losses. Texas Tech barely got here tat 6-6 and almost lost to SF Austin. Mike Leach loves to throw the ball and Texas Tech ranked #117 against the pass this season which is the worst of any bowl team. Texas Tech is down to its 3rd string QB who started the last 3 games in D. Smith, and he will be under duress the entire game. Revenge is a huge factor here as well. Make the play on Miss St.

The Louisville Cardinals barely made it to a Bowl game at 6-6. This despite the efforts of do everything QB Malik Cunningham. Cunningham ran for 968 yards and threw for 2,733, and combined for 37 TD. It wasn't enough as Louisville was just 2-6 SU when playing against a Bowl bound team this season. Air Force is the #1 rushing team in the nation, and after watching Louisville get gauged for 362 yards at 6 yards per attempt, and allowing 52 points as a favorite vs Kentucky, they could be in trouble here. The Cards have not faced the option all season. The Mountain West is already 4-0 in Bowl games on the season. A team that finished in the top 10 in rushing yards per game has gone 51-30 ATS in their last 81 Bowls. Many top situations ride with the Falcons in this one. Make the play on Air Force.

Auburn will get the semi-home field edge here playing in Birmingham. Will it be enough? The Tigers lost Bo Nix, and finished with 4 straight losses and averaged just 19ppg in the 4 games. TJ Finley has taken over but his status is in question as he is dealing with an ankle injury. Moreover, sever key players have opted out of this game for Auburn, and the circumstances here do not look like a team poised to deliver their best effort. Houston book-ended an opening game loss and an AAC Championship loss with 11 straight wins. The Cougars played Cincinnati tough losing the yardage battle by just 64 yards, and had a 1 turnover disadvantage. Auburn finished just 36 yards better than their opponents from the line of scrimmage, while Houston held a 117 yard edge, but Auburn faced a much more difficult schedule. The main concern here is I don't think Auburn envisioned playing on December 28th vs an AAC team. With the poor finish, a backup QB, and several key opt outs, is this a spot of the "A" game? I don't think so. Houston should be very motivated to go against a name SEC school and get their 12th win of the season. I like their chances here. Make the play on Houston.

The New Orleans Saints have had injury issues all season and the QB spot has been hit the hardest. Winston, Siemian, and now Hill are all out. Their 4th string QB Ian Book will get his first NFL start. I don't expect Sean Payton to expect much, and the game plan is going to revolve around Alvin Kamara as he is going to be burdened with a lot of the offensive load. It will be the Saints defense that will have to step up. Miami has worked their way into the playoff picture at 7-7. Miami has won 6 straight games. That includes wins over the Giants, Houston, Carolina, and the Jets twice. New Orleans is also 7-7 and very much alive in the NFC playoff race. Book can run a little and I think the Saints will rely on his legs more than his arm, and will generate enough offense to get the win. Make the play on New Orleans.

Nevada had great expectations for this season. They have a prolific QB and all the pieces for a great season. They finished 8-4 which wasn't as good as expected. They now have lost their coach for the Bowl game, and their do-everything QB Carson Strong. This team is missing their top 5 wide receivers and tight ends, and missing pieces in the offensive line. The starter will be Nate Cox, who threw 20 passes this year 15 of which came against New Mexico St,and Idaho St. They can't run the ball at all and 83.2% of their yards this season have come in the air. W. Michigan lost 5 games, one was to Michigan, and in the other 4 losses they had 11 turnovers to their opponents 0. They also beat a ranked Pittsburgh team. They average 8 yards per pass attempt, but they can also run as they averaged 203 yards per game. I think this is a huge disappointment bowl for Fresno St., while Western Michigan will be glad to be here. Make the play on Western Michigan.

This game is strictly an extremely strong situation that is 71-24 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

It seems like every game is important as we come down the stretch of the NFL season. Baltimore and Cincinnati are both 8-6 and the winner will have a leg up on the hotly contested AFC North. Baltimore will again be without Lamar Jackson, but Tyler Huntley got noticed last week. He was 28-40 for 215 yards and 2 TD and 0 INT. He also ran 13 times for 73 yards and a pair of TD. Baltimore will try and do what they did in Green Bay. They will use the short passing and running game to keep from getting exposed from the Bengal passing game. Baltimore still has a lot of covid-19 question marks, but this is still a very good team, and if Huntley can use his legs like last week, and not make mistakes, the Ravens are going to be in this one to win it s they were last week against Green Bay. Make the play on Baltimore.

Minnesota has been eliminated from the NFC North, but at 7-7 their wildcard hopes are going to improve or go south after this week. The Vikings follow their game with the Rams by going to Green Bay, so they have a lot of work to do. Kirk Cousins has injured ribs but will play, but unfortunately for the Vikings Dalvin Cook will not, and that is big. Additionally, Adam Thielen is questionable. The Rams are finally playing as well as the talent level the team possesses. The Rams have won 3 straight and are currently 1 of 4 NFC teams at 10-4, so obviously this is a huge game for them as well. The biggest take away from this game is the Rams play makers are healthy and the Vikings are not. Make the play on the LA Rams.

Jacksonville finally made a coaching change, but it made little difference as the Jags lost to Houston 30-16. It marks their 6th straight loss. It was also the 8th straight game Jacksonville scored 17 points or less. They are averaging 13.7ppg on the road for the season. The Jets are dealing with covid-19 issues with about 15 or so players, but none have been ruled out yet. The Jags are still waiting for Trevor Lawrence to show something but his 9 TD and 14 INT are woeful for the expectations he brought. Zach Wilson hasn't been much better for the Jets. The jets have turned the ball over just 4 times in their last 5 games, and that is where the edge is in this game as Lawrence has been a turnover machine all season, and the Jets do have a pass rush so it won't be easy for Lawrence, especially on the road. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The New England Patriots have a game lead on the Buffalo Bills and can punch their ticket as AFC Champs with a win. That wil not be easy as Buffalo lost a tough one at home 14-10 to the Patriots just less than 3 weeks ago. The game was tough to use as a gauge as the winds were gusting up to 60 MPH, and New England won despite passing the ball just 3 times. New England followed that game with a loss vs Indianapolis 27-17. The Bills are significantly better on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and they will be playing for revenge. The Bills know they have to win here, or suddenly even their chance of getting into the playoffs as a wild card become suspect. I like the feel for this game. The Bills have revenge, they are playing for their playoff lives, and are the better team. MAke the play on Buffalo.

Saturday December 25th, 2021

  Top Side Play · [454] Green Bay Packers
    Sat Dec 25th, 2021 4:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

Georgia St finished with 3 straight wins to qualify for a Bowl game. They played a very difficult schedule with 5 of their losses coming to Army, NC, Auburn, App. St., and LA Lafayette. They had a huge win as well vs Coastal Carolina. The Panthers beat the mid-level teams on its schedule with a bruising ground game and finished in the top 10 in the country in rushing yards per game. A team finishing in the top 10 in rushing yards per game has gone 50-30 ATS in their last 80 Bowl games. Ball St. has a brutal offense and on the season they were out-gained by 80 yards per game. Make the play on Georgia St.

The situation in Florida is pretty messy. The Gators will have a new coach next year, and a lot of players have opted out of the Bowl game vs Central Florida. They finished 6-6 and I see a lot of action in favor of UCF. Florida played a much tougher schedule and consider this. They out-gained Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida St., and Kentucky. They seemed to be the type of team that was good vs elite teams, and a no-show vs scrub teams. UCF is not anywhere close to the team they have been over the past several years. Florida out-gained a rugged schedule of teams by 109 yards per game. Central Florida by just 31. UCF plays at a speedy tempo, but because the offense and QB are mediocre, they have run 7 fewer plays than their opponents this season, instead of dominating with a  fast tempo it hurts them. They are also the 2nd worst team in ball security in the country. I think the Gators win easily here. Make the play on Florida.

The story line out of North Texas is pretty amazing. The Mean Green went 0-6 against FBS teams to start the season. They were out-scored 231-117 in the 6 games. Then this team suddenly started to get it, and there was a game to game improvement. The Mean Green went on to finish the season at 5-0 out-scoring opponents 182-85! That was a 65 point improvement on offense, and a 146 point improvement on defense. It may be the largest team transition in a current season ever. This team is playing close to home and should have a crowd advantage here, and there is no doubt this team will come in confident, and ready to play. They knocked of unbeaten at the time UTSA 45-23 in their last game of the season. Miami, Ohio is 6-6 but to their credit, they lost some tough games. This team is now in the favorite role, and has shown the lack of ability to close out games, which makes them a tough sell. North Texas is about 30 minutes from home, and this will turn out to be a home game, for a very motivated team. The MAC has fared extremely poorly in Bowl games as their record over the last 5 Bowl seasons is a woeful 5-23 SU, including 0-4 this year. Make the play on North Texas.

Wednesday December 22nd, 2021

It was a huge year for UT San Antonio finishing at 12-1. You have to sit back and think of what that 12-1 record would have been in the Mountain West Conference where San Diego St. finished 11-2. Conference USA saw bowl teams go 0-7 SU last year and the conference is just 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 bowl games. San Diego St. is all about defense as the Aztecs own the 14th best defense in the country. San Diego St. got blown out in the MWC Championship game, but they were missing several players due to covid-19. The only other loss was vs Fresno St. by 10 where they turned the ball over 3 times and Fresno St. did not have a turnover. UTSA seemed to wear down as the season progressed and were out-scored in their last 3 games, despite being +3 in turnovers. San Diego St. owns the bowl coaching experience edge here, which has been highly predictive over the years. Make the play on San Diego St.

Wyoming struggled with consistency all season. They took a 14-3 loss to New Mexico which was the only game the Lobos covered all season, and less than a month later beat Mountain West Conference Champion Uth St. 47-17. The Cowboys gained well over 600 yards in the win. When this team is at its best they are far and away the better team, and I would think playing in a Bowl game we should see that side of this team here. Kent St. relies on their offense to win games, as the Golden Flashes have allowed 41 or more points in 4 of its last 5 games. Wyoming also owns the bowl coach experience situation here as that has proven worthy over the years and is now 126-89-1 ATS (4-2 ATS this bowl season). There is also the fact that Wyoming played here already this season, and are used to the high altitude which could prove to impact Kent St. a lot more. Make the play on Wyoming.

The Chicago Bears have little left to play for after losing to the Packers last week. Chicago scored 30 points in that game, but half of those points can be credited to the Packer poor special teams. This is a difficult motivational spot for the Bears, and a lot of personnel issues they face make this a daunting task. Chicago will be missing their entire starting secondary. The Bears are also down 3 starting tackles for this game, much as they were against Green Bay, and Justin Fields was under pressure all game. Kirk Cousins has quietly had a great season with 23 TD's to just 5 INT. He should pick apart the shorthanded secondary, and with Fields facing pressure all game, I don't see the Bears keeping up in this one. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Cleveland Browns have a mess on their hands with over 20 players dealing with covid-19 issues that moved the game to Monday. Some may play, as others sit out, but you can be sure the Brown's practices for this week have not been able to address or rehearse much of a game plan. Vegas on the other hand has no reported players on the injury report and is the healthiest team in the NFL. Vegas was trampled last week by Kansas City 48-9. They handed the game over to the Chiefs by committing 5 turnovers while forcing 0. A team losing by 31 or more points the previous week covers 55% of their next game. Tough spot for Cleveland, that possibly will be down to a 3rd string QB. Make the play on Vegas.

Right now I am staying about 15 minutes from the Myrtle Beach Bowl. It was 35 degrees this morning, and the high is projected to be in the upper 40s. It was 78 here 2 days ago. The key factor will be the wind blowing steady ar 16 MPH and gusting to 25. This is going to turn into more of a clock chewing running game, and the kicking game will be impacted as well. I'm going under the total.

It took a game vs the Jets for New Orleans to end a 5 game losing streak. Prior to that the Saints lost 3 straight by double-digits, and now take on last year's Superbowl Champs that is starting to make their stretch drive. The Bucs have won and covered 4 straight games and lost to New Orleans earlier in the season 36-27. The Bucs were -3 in turnovers in that game, and will be seeking revenge in prime time tonight. The Bucs elite offense has gained 418 yards per game over ts last 4 and has produced 30 points or more in all of them. Tampa Bay will be playing its 7th game of the season as a double-digit favorite and are 5-1 ATS in the first 6 winning by an average of 18.2ppg. The margin has been 20+ in 4 of them. Tom Brady is 30-15 ATS in his last 45 home games as a favorite, including 23-7 ATS as a favorite from -10 to -17 points. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

It is becoming more apparent that Lamar Jackson may miss the game vs. Green Bay. At best for the Ravens is he plays at less than 100%. The Ravens are in need of a win, and with or without Jackson, I think they are going to show up this week against the new #1 team in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers now hold their own destiny to retain the #1 seed in the NFC and get all playoff games at Lambeau. How important is that? The Packers are 6-0 at home and just 4-3 on the road. While three of the road games resulted in losses, three of the wins came by three points or fewer. This is just an entirely different team home vs. away. This line has really gone over the top as the difference in this team on the road vs. at home is considerable. And while they may carve out a win, the number is too high now. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Niners' season was about to go south, but they have gone 4-1 in their last five games and are now well in the playoff hunt. There are a lot of teams packed together, so each game carries a lot of weight. They may have become overrated as the reason they are winning is they have had an 11-4 turnover advantage over their last five games. The Niners have allowed 79 points in their last 3 games or 26.3ppg, and the once proud defense has slipped considerably. The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 on the road where for some reason they have played so much better. They have been better on both sides of the ball on the road vs playing at home. The Falcons are in the playoff hunt and I like them to hang around in this one. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Jacksonville Jaguars finally fired Urban Meyer before he even completed one season. They basically had no choice as the negatives against him were becoming overwhelming. I believe the Jags get an emotional bump as so many players hated him, and I think the attitude will improve and the Jags play their best game of the year. Typically a team improves from the firing date of the head coach until the close of the season. Trevor Lawrence has struggled with pressure all season but the Texans get very little pressure. James Robinson could be in for a big day, as the Houston defense allows 4.7 yards per carry. Houston has been a much worse team with Davis Mills at QB. They are averaging fewer than 10ppg. The Jags were shutout last game but an NFL team coming off a shutout has been a 55.4% winner ATS over many years. Make the play on Jacksonville

This pick is strictly system based. I don't typically play situations blindly unless they are very strong. This one is 87-38 ATS and the play is on the UNDER.

LA Lafayette has had a great run this season at 12-1, and look to close out the season with 13 wins, and have a quasi-home game to do it in. The Ragin Cajuns have been led by a defense that allows just 18.3ppg and in 2 big games vs Liberty and Appalachian St. they allowed 14, and 16 respectively. The defense has grown as the season has moved forward and LA Lafayette has allowed 16ppg over their last 6. Marshall was no match for the powerful offense of W. Kentucky but has otherwise held up very well allowing 15.5ppg in their 4 previous to W. Kentucky. Marshall was slowed by the better teams on its schedule having gone just 2-5 on the season, and a dead heat in total yards. LA Lafayette was 10-3 to the under this season, and I have an 85-44 ATS under situation for this game that is also 22-9 ATS in Bowl games, to the under. Make the play on the under.

It will be a Saturday Night in New England with snow falling. Fortunately for the Indianapolis Colts it won't matter as this game is at home under a dome. While the New England Patriots with 7 straight wins and covers under their belt are grabbing all the headlines, the Colts are a stealthy team that started 1-4 and have gone 6-2 over their last 8. RB Jonathon Taylor is having a breakout season with 1,348 rushing yards and 18 total TD's. Taylor has 10 runs of 20+ yards along with 5 more in the passing game. The Patriots have won games throwing 41 times as well as winning throwing the ball 3 times. The Colts have scored 30+ points in 7 of its last 8 games, and quietly have the 3rd best offense in the league, and the defense is top 5 as well in points allowed. The Patriots have looked impressive, so why is Indianapolis favored here? The reason is they are playing at home and have the tools to win this game. Carson Wentz has 22 TDs and just 5 INT's on the season. One question for New England, is Mac Jones healthy? Last week the weather called for the running game, but he has an injured finger, was that part of it? I think Indianapolis knows this is a huge statement game, and they deliver the win with an impressive performance. Make the play on Indianapolis.

What a remarkable turnaround for Utah St. They finished 1-5 a year ago with all 5 losses by 19 or more points. This year they enter their Bowl Game at 10-3, and this will be a motivated group. They closed out by winning the MWC Championship game, and a team winning their Conference Championship has gone 78-53-5 ATS in their Bowl game. Oregon St. has been all over the place this season. They were good enough to beat Utah, and bad enough to lose to Colorado. The Aggies on the other hand over its last 6 games went 3-0 ATS as a dog winning them all out-right by a combined total of 66 points! Experience matters in Bowl games, and head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of how many Bowl games he has coached vs the opposing coach matters. Those with more bowl games coached are 122-87-1 ATS, and Utah St. holds a +6 in this one. Make the play on Utah St.

Liberty struggled down the stretch after starting the season 7-2. The Flames lost their last 3 games and the issues were ball control as the Flames in their final 3 games lost the turnover battle 11-0! Eastern Michigan wasn't much better as the Eagles posted a 1-2 record in their final 3 contests, with the win coming by 1 point. Eastern Michigan was out-gained by 49 yards per game on the season and Liberty out-gained a better schedule of opponents by 113 yards, and have an elite dual threat QB in Malik Willis. Eastern Michigan was a longtime doormat but under Chris Creighton they have gone to 3 Bowls and while they are 0-3 SU they are 3-0 ATS and lost the 3 games by a combined 10 points. Motivation is key in Bowl games, and I think Liberty with Willis and a host of others returning had bigger bowls in mind, and EMU is not going to be an inspiring opponents for them. Willis did not have nearly the year he had last year as his numbers are down everywhere. One big issue for this Liberty team has been the offensive line which gave up 51 sacks on the season. Eastern Michigan always looks like they are on the bad side of a mismatch, but Chris Creighton is the master of getting more out of less. Consider he is 30-9-1 ATS as a dog at EMU. He is also 14-0 ATS as a rod dog coming off a loss! Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

I'm going to start this one out with somewhat of a trick question. Who was the best team in the Pac-12 this season? It was BYU. The Cougars finished 5-0 against Pac-12 teams this season, and also played Virginia, Baylor, Boise St., and Utah St. That is one tough schedule with a team that finished 10-2 and #12 in the Bowl Championship Series rankings. Despite all that bettors are lining up on UAB to the tune of 80% of bets. The Cougars bested those opponents by 72 total yards per game at 1.4 yards per play. UAB had a nice season finishing at 8-4. One interesting side note. BYU was favored by -8.5 vs USC in its last game, and now less on a neutral field to UAB? UAB was out-scored by 3 points a game this season vs a team playing in a bowl. One of the issues for UAB this season is they rank 3rd in the nation in penalty yards at 91 per game and can ill afford those type of mistakes here vs an elite opponent. The Cougars fit the bowl situation that favors a coach that has coached more bowl games then the opposing coach which is now 122-87-1 ATS. Make the play on BYU.

The story line for this game is obvious. UTEP is a program that won 5 games the last 4 years, and here they are at 7-5 and in a bowl game for the first time since 2014 and last won a bowl game over 50 years ago. Do you think this is going to be a motivated team? Fresno St. lost their coach, and he will be replaced by an interim, but interim bowl coaches are not a factor of the outcome as they are around 50/50 over the years. The issue of the day is who will start at QB for Fresno St.? QB Jake Haener originally opted out and into the transfer portal, but decided to withdraw. Interim head coach Lee Marks will not disclose which of 3 potential starting QBs will actually start the game. My best guess is they all play, or at least 2 of them play. I like the play on UTEP here, because if Haener plays I like UTEP some, but if he doesn't I like UTEP a lot. I am going to play UTEP here. If Haener doesn't play, or if the QB duties are split the value of the play just increases. The more motivated team here in either case is UTEP. It is a huge game for them. Make the play on UTEP.