Sports Picks & Predictions

This should be an interesting season for Wisconsin. The Badgers have been a running team for a long time, but they have a new offensive coordinator in Phil Longo. Longo is going to veer away from the heavy running attack we have seen in Wisconsin, to a much more balanced attack. Longo was successful in doing just that at North Carolina. He will have Tanner Mordecai running the offense, who was successful at SMU. He will have a talented receiving group to spread the ball around, and with RB Braelon Allen running the ball the Badger offense should be one of the top units in the country. Luke Fickell will head the coaching staff and he built a strong team at Cincinnati. The Wisconsin defense is always rock solid. The Badgers have 18 returning starters. Buffalo finished 7-6 last year and won their Bowl game, but the numbers don`t show a 7-6 team. They ran 12 more plays a game than their opponent, and had a positive turnover advantage, and were out-gained by over a yard per contest. This game fits a game 1 situation that is in part based on big home favorites that are 107-69 ATS. Make the play on Wisconsin.

I would not want to be Arkansas St. facing this Oklahoma team in their season opener on the road. Moreover, Butch Jones's team has just 11 returning starters, and that does not include the QB. Oklahoma had a total disaster last year and finished 6-7. You have to go back 25 years to find an Oklahoma team with fewer wins. I think there is value in Oklahoma early this season after last year's debacle. I will lean on this. Game 1 home favorites playing to a total of fewer than 60 points are 99-68-2 ATS. Make the play on Oklahoma.

That isn't the case in the Super Bowl. According to former All-Pro specialist Pat McAfee - who booted the opening kickoff for the Colts in Super Bowl XLI - the ball used in title games isn't handled until the opening kickoff, and it's kicked just once before being removed and preserved for the Hall of Fame.

Cincinnati heads to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. The weather is not going to be ideal for passing downfield. The temperature will be in the low 20s to start the game and down to 15-18 by the end of the game, and the windchill will be hovering around 0, with wind gusts in the 20s. The big question will be the mobility of Patrick Mahomes as he deals with a high ankle sprain sustained last week. That is the type of injury that takes more than a week to heal, so I will assume Mahomes is less than 100%. The Bengals offensive line is in shambles but did hold up against Buffalo, and I think Kansas City is going to try and test it with pressure. This has the look of more running than one would think and the Chiefs have run for 138 yards or more in each of the last 3 vs Kansas City, and with a less than healthy Mahomes, they may run even more. Almost all bets I see from questionable handicappers are on the over. I am in the other camp and will make the play on the under.

The San Francisco 49ers will head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. It should be ideal weather conditions with a high of 51 degrees and light winds, and just a slight chance for a shower or two. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy has played just a couple games on the road, and both opponents were rather weak. He will be facing the best defense he has in his brief career, one that has sacked the QB 70 times on the season. Jalen Hurts is going to be facing a tough defense in San Francisco, and both defenses will have the advantage when they are on the field. I think this is going to be a game of field position, and TD's are going to hard to come by. This game also fits a total situation that is 38-16 ATS. I will make the play under the total.

Before I get too deep into this, I want to acknowledge that San Francisco is a very good team. The issue here is just how good are they. Statistically they stand out as being very strong. The issue for me in this game is as follows. The 49ers have 14 wins this season. Their best win, and the only team they beat that was over .500 is the LA Chargers at 10-8. The only team they played this season that is in the final 8 this weekend is Kansas City. They were blown out 44-23. QB Brock Purdy has been the best of their 3 QB's this season. He is still a rookie, and like I said from above, he has had 6 easy opponents to play against, and had very little to challenge him. That is going to change this week vs Dallas. Dallas can get pressure, and overplay often for INT's. I can see Purdy getting rattled and making a crucial mistake or two. Dallas has more weapons than any team the 49ers have faced both in the running and passing game. Dallas tends to play to the level of competition. They made Tom Brady look 45 last week, what will they scheme for a rookie QB? I think this is the most challenging game for the 49ers all season. Make the play on Dallas.

The 49ers played one team this season that has the offensive weapons that Dallas does, and that was against Kansas City. They proceeded to allow 44 points in that game. The Niners have averaged over 30ppg since Brock Purdy became the QB. I can see this game getting into the 50s. A team playing to a total of 42 to 49.5 and off of 2 consecutive games played under the total, and both teams have a season to date scoring margin of 7 points or more in the playoffs are 11-0 ATS to the over since 2007! Make the play on the over.

The Buffalo Bills have won 41 games over the last 3 seasons. They have yet to find their way to the Super Bowl. Something always seems to go wrong. If there is reason to believe that will be the case again this season, here it is. Buffalo faced 3 teams that made the playoffs this season. They won 2 of them by 3 and 4 points, and lost the other by 3. All 3 games were extremely tight. The last time they faced a team that made the playoffs was on November 13th against Minnesota, a loss. It has been over 2 months since the Bills have faced a winning team. Cincinnati faced 5 teams that made the playoffs and won 3 of them. The two losses were by 2 and 3 points. What this says to me is that this game is going to be tight, and the Bengals are getting several points to many here. Cincinnati fits situations that are 34-11, 98-56, and 51-28. Buffalo is in several negative situations. I like Cincinnati in this one.

A lot of what Philadelphia does offensively is predicated on the arm and legs of Jalen Hurts.He is likely not going to be 100% for this game, and the Eagles will probably hold him back from running the ball like his usual self. The Giants are not supposed to be here. Daniel Jones has made great strides and does not turn the ball over like he used to and the Giants defense has been improving. They have not allowed more than 353 total yards in any of their last 4 games which includes 2 vs Minnesota and one vs Philadelphia. The Giants seem to be in every game as they have played 14 one-possession games in which they are 13-1 ATS, and 9-4-1 SU. The Giants have double-revenge having lost to the Eagles twice this season, and playoff teams in that case as a 6 point or more under dog are 6-1 ATS. The Eagles lost a lot of their mojo down the stretch, and sometimes that is harder to get back than most would think. Giants come in feeling pretty good and has covered 5 straight games. A team that comes into a playoff game on a 5 game ATS winning streak or more are 18-11 ATS. (6-1 ATS taking 4 or more points). I like the NY Giants in this one.

There is one big difference in this game. It is at the most important position. Trevor Lawrence made great strides this season, but he still has a long way to go. He threw 4 interceptions in the first half and while he finished with 273 yards it came on 47 passes, at less than 6 yards per attempt. The Chiefs have the best QB in football in Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are also generating 4.7 yards per carry on the ground vs teams that combine to allow 4.4. The Chiefs will also have the biggest mismatch on the field with Travis Kelce. The Jags are 32nd out of 32 teams defending tight ends. The Jags are also 29th in broken tackle rates against them so yards after the catch are gong to add up. Kelce caught 6 passes for 81 yards against Jacksonville earlier in the season, but played his 2nd fewest snaps of the season as well. Jacksonville relies on pressure and they pressured Mampmes just 4 times in their meeting this season. Andy Reid has coached 19 post-season wins and 16 of those came by 10 points or more. Reid's teams are also 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS with an extra week to prepare. I see a comfortable 10+ point win for the Chiefs. Make the play on Kansas City.

Since the start of the 2019 season the Chiefs have played 7 home playoff games, where they have averaged 36ppg. These games have averaged 62ppg by both teams. The 2 games they were favored by more than 8 points they averaged 46.5ppg. More importantly, the Chiefs fit a strong situation that has been 22-2 ATS in the playoffs. The play is over the total.

The Baltimore Ravens will once again give it a go without Lamar Jackson. The decision on QB for Baltimore is still a mystery. Tyler Huntley is said to be a game time decision, and he hasn't exactly moved the offense even when he was healthy. If he can't go then Anthony Brown will make his second straight start. Baltimore is averaging 12.5ppg in their last 5 games. The Ravens do have their defensive swagger on. Through 8 weeks the Ravens were allowing 22.9ppg but since then have allowed 14.7ppg from week 9 out. They have held the Bengal offense to 22ppg in the 2 meetings. The Ravens only true chance of winning this game is going to play their best defensive game of the season because the offense is just horrible without Jackson. Make the play under the total.

The Minnesota Vikings probably shouldn't be in the position they are. They have defied all odds by winning 11 games by one score while losing none. The Giants have been in a similar situation as they have played. What everyone forgets is the Giants are 12-1 ATS in one possession games.(10-0 ATS in their last 10 one score games). They have played 13 themselves. Points in this game are a big factor in what sets out to be a close. The Vikings also have one of the worst special teams unit in the league where they rank number 30. Jalen Reagor averaged just 6.4 yards per punt return with four fumbles. Greg Joseph converted only four of his 10 field goal attempts of 50 yards or more (this makes that Giants game-winner all the more unlikely) and also missed a half-dozen extra points. And the Vikings allowed 26.2 yards per kickoff return; only Miami was worse. Make the play on the NY Giants.

The Buffalo Bills are going to be a motivated team throughout the playoffs. They are playing for Devar Hamlin, and no need to go into those details as anyone reading this understands what happened. The Bills check all the boxes as it is. They are better than Miami across the board by significant margins, which expand with Tua being out for Miami. That includes a decisive special teams edge. Not only is Tua out, but Raheem Mostert is out as well. Buffalo has everything clicking right now, and playing inspired football for Hamlin makes this one a snoozer. Buffalo rolls in this one, lay the points.

I was waiting to see the status of Mile Williams for the Chargers. He has been officially ruled out. He is the only successful deep threat for the Chargers. Meanwhile the Chargers have a big hole on defense. They have a pair of very good cover corners but they have been attacked in the middle of the field. The Jags became a different team late in the season finishing at 6-1. They destroyed the Chargers in week 3, and I think they have gotten a lot better. Games in the playoffs are more about match ups and I like how Jacksonville matches up here. The Chargers can`t run the ball effectively, and if you can`t run in the playoffs and your missing your game breaking receiver, you are in trouble, especially on the road. I`ll take Jacksonville in this one.

The Seattle Seahawks backed into the playoffs with a 9-8 record as a Green Bay loss to Detroit punched their ticket. Brock Purdy has actually been better than any of the 2 injured San Francisco QB's, and the Niners have averaged 33.6ppg with him under center. That along with an elite defense makes the Niners a strong Super Bowl contender. The playoffs are an entirely different entity, as the game speeds up, and the pressure mounts. Since the 1986 season a rookie QB starting a playoff game has gone 5-15 SU. Backup QB's have an equally inept record as well when it comes to the playoffs. The weather will be a factor for this game as it has rained in the Bay area for a week straight and the current forecast for Saturday is 100% chance of heavy rain. It will be tough to get a big margin in these conditions and the wind may also be a factor. This game fits my strongest playoff situation that is built around a team entering the playoffs on a long winning streak. That situation is 0-23 ATS, and plays against San Francisco. Make the play on Seattle.

It has been raining all week in the Bay Area. The field has likely been covered, but heavy rain is forecast during the game. Additionally a sustained wind of 20MPH with gusts over 30 are going to make passing and kicking a challenge. I like the under in this one.

It is the improbable vs the season long favorite. TCU lost just 1 game this season, and it was a surprise that they got by Michigan. It took a lot of things going wrong for Michigan, who turned the ball over 3 times, and had a pair of pick-6's that gave TCU 14 points. Michigan played their sloppiest game of the season, and still had a chance down the stretch, but could not overcome the lost possessions and points that ensued. You can play the "what if" game and look at the result if that didn't happen along with a Michigan turnover inside the TCU 10. Michigan would have won the game by a considerable margin. The Georgia defense appears to be exposed allowing 71 total points in their last 2 games. Everyone forgets this same Georgia defense held Oregon to 3 points. The Ducks averaged over 40 points per game in all their other games. They also held Tennessee to 13 points, a team that averaged 46 and scored 31 or more points in every other game. My point is there is a capacity for this Georgia team to completely shutdown the TCU offense, the same doesn't apply on the other side. Recency bias is well noted by bettors and see this as the same challenge as Michigan. Remember without 2 pick-6's and a fumble near the end-zone, Michigan covers this line vs Michigan. TCU has the 70th rated run defense and Georgia is the best at running and defending the run, and is #2 in the red-zone on defense. TCU allows over 26ppg so if the stout Georgia defense plays their game, it will be a long night for TCU. There is also a situation that plays against a team from week 12 on that just beat an undefeated team in their last game, and they are 91-120 ATS in their next game. (that is also 18-27 ATS if it is a playoff game, a Bowl Game, or a Championship game. TCU star running back has a sprained MCL and his status is unclear, but will be hampered at the least. Remember last year in the SEC Championship game Georgia game up 41 to Alabama and lost big, only to come back and hold a Heisman Trophy QB to 18 points. Remember, this is just 1 game, and as we saw vs Michigan, anything can happen. Handicapping is about what is likely to happen, and this is how I see this game. The TCU bandwagon is overflowing and it has moved the line down. I like Georgia to repeat and get the cover in a convincing win. Make the play on Georgia.

The Arizona Cardinals are down to 3rd string QB Trace McSorley. He has not been the answer. McSorley has a 51 QB rating and has thrown for just 5.2 yards per attempt. The Cardinals also have 30 players on their injury report heading into their game vs San Francisco. The Niners can be the #1 seed so they will certainly be playing to win. This game also fits a crazy good situation that is 1-29-1 ATS. The team in this situation averages losing by 32.8 to 9.8 and in the 29 losses just one game saw them lose by 13. All other games were by more! Make the play on San Francisco.

This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.

Pittsburgh is still alive for the playoffs, but need things to happen. Cleveland is still playing for a lot. They need to get reps for Watson, who will be their QB for a long time. It is a favorable match up for Cleveland as Watson is great against the blitz on first down, and Pittsburgh brings heat on first down almost more than any other team. Kenny Pickett is getting some headlines but he ranks very low among QB's so a lot of the winning the Steelers hve been doing isn't statistically bright moving forward. I like Cleveland in this one.

This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This should be an exciting Rose Bowl as Penn St. takes on Utah. The missing players for this game turns up to be a wash. Penn St. is playing their best football of the season, and if you look at the stats they have a better yards per play differential than Utah, as well as a tougher schedule. Utah likes to run the ball as they average 40 rushes per game, but Penn St. allows just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt and will control the Utah running game. The Utah defense is vulnerable through the air, and I look for Penn St. to attack downfield. The Penn St. pass defense is allowing just a 52% completion rate, and if Utah can't run the ball they will struggle here. This game also applies to a 45-12 ATS January Bowl situation, that favors the Nitany Lions. Make the play on Penn St.

This has been the most exciting season in Tulane football in memory. The Green Wave comes in at 11-2 and is also 11-2 ATS. That isn't as good news as it sounds as a Bowl team that comes into their game on a 3 or more game ATS winning streak are just 121-154-2 ATS. USC QB Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy and he was initially slated to be out, but he has declared himself ready to play and I like USC if he is indeed the QB (check injury report). His coach says he will start without restrictions and he practiced well all week. The fact that he wants to and is going to play indicates to me that USC is showing up here, and they are much better than Tulane. Make the play on USC.

Purdue has taken a lot of opt-out hits. They will be without their QB, TE, and a WR, as well as a couple more starters. This game is more about a strong January Bowl total situation that is 17-2 ATS. Make the play under the total.

The news of Mike Leach passing was sad. He was an innovative offensive genius, and he changed the game. I think Miss St. will be dedicating this game to him, and whatever their "A" game is we will see it today. Illinois has a poor offense which is likely to suffer the impact of losing RB Chase Brown and his 1,600+ plus yards. Defensively the Illini have been rock solid, however, they will be missing their 2 CB's for this one, and their defensive coordinator left for Purdue. This game has set up perfectly for Miss St. Make the play on Miss St.

Both of these teams were better defensively than they are offensively, and the balance of the opt outs seem to enhance that. The bigger reason is a bowl total situation that is 56-19 ATS. Make the play under the total.

Lamar Jackson has been ruled out for Baltimore as the 10-5 Ravens host Pittsburgh. The Ravens have averaged just 12ppg in his absence, but are 2-1 in those games. The defense has made a big leap from early in the season. The Ravens have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 14 or fewer points. Pittsburgh comes of a very emotional last drive win in honor of Franco Harris. Heading on the road after a sky high emotional game, they could come up flat. I like Baltimore in this one.

The Packers have a lot of incentive this week. They have won 3 straight games, the offense has been much better, and if they win they could move up to the top 7 for a playoff spot with a Washington loss to Cleveland. I like their chances as Green Bay is 78-52-5 ATS at home from week 10 on since 1992. (70-46-3 ATS as a home favorite). Green Bay is also 30-6 SU hosting a dome team after week 10. Cousins has never been very good in cold weather, and the Vikings have not played an outdoor game since week 10. Green Bay also fits a 110-47 ATS situation. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Raiders have given up on Derek Carr, and apparently will replace a lot of starters in this game and looking ahead to 2023-24. Can't see them moving the ball much here, and these teams fit into a strong 166-108 ATS situation. Make the play under the total.

The New York Giants have been a surprise team this season. They closed last season with a 4-13 record and needed just 6 games this season to top that win total. They have had a considerable amount of good fortune. The Giants have 8 wins, and a tie, and have not won a football game all season vs any opponent by more than 1 possession. The Giants just don't have the personnel to get margin, and I like Indianapolis here.

Georgia is looking to become just the 4th team in the Championship era to win two consecutive Championships. It is going to be strength against strength when Ohio St. has the ball. The Ohio St. offensive line allowed just 8 sacks all season. While Georgia is a top defensive team, I saw a weakness at times, allowing receivers to get behind them. Ohio St. has a top QB in CJ Stroud, and a pair of receivers with over 1000 yards. I also think that the Georgia WRs are not up to the level they have been at in the past. Their best receiver is McConkey and he is questionable for this game. Ohio st. is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games posted as a dog, and I think the loss to Michigan has pushed this line toward Georgia. This should be a 3/3.5 point line, so I see line value and handicapping value in favor of the Buckeyes here. Make the play on Ohio St.

Is this the year that Michigan finally gets over the top, and wins a National Championship? It starts against TCU. TCU had several games that could have gone either way, but somehow manaaged to pull them all out, and here they are playing for a Championship. Michigan is the most physical team TCU will face all season. The offensive line is the most talented in the country, and the offense has averaged over 40ppg. The defense was rock solid a year ago, but is even better this season, and they can run or pass, but tends to bully the opponent with an over-powering running game. These playoff games tend to go as you would expect. The last 14 playoff semi-final games have been decided by 14 or more points since 2015. Eight of those eleven games came with a greater than 7 point favorite and all 6 since 2018 have been decided by 14+ points, I see a similar result here and will make the play on Michigan.

There will be a sense of revenge in this game. These teams met last Bowl season in the Citrus Bowl and Kentucky won 20-17 with a late TD. Iowa is a horrible offense, so starting a 3rd string red shirt freshman QB is going to be difficult to downgrade an offense already ranked 130. It may actually surprise in a positive way. It is the Iowa defense that should rule the day. Iowa allowed just 14.4ppg. If you take out games vs ultra elite offensive teams Michigan, and Ohio St. they allowed 9.2ppg! So the offense won't need to do a whole lot here. Kentucky is without their QB and top RB, and allowed 42 sacks on the season. I would not be surprised if Iowa scores on a defensive TD here. There is a lot of hidden value here as well. Iowa holds a significant special teams edge, and in a game with a total of 31, field position is huge. Iowa in this one.

This is just the second time Alabama will not be in the 4 team playoff. Many may question the motivation here, but with Young and Anderson the leaders on both sides of the ball opting in, it sets the tone for the Tide to show up big. The Alabama defense ranks 4th holding opponents to 90 yards per game below their average. Kansas St. had a great year, but I also think this is the biggest challenge they will face this season, and the best defense by far. The situation here compliments my thoughts, as the Tide fits a 83-39 ATS Bowl situation. Make the play on Alabama.

This game fits a Bowl situation that plays under on certain teams that are averaging over 40 points per game, and it is 26-5 ATS. Make the play under the total.

My top Bowl total situation which is 36-7 ATS is active for this game, and the play is under the total.

These teams both have significant opt outs on offense, and when you combine that with a Bowl total situation that is a rather potent 47-16 ATS, my play in this one is on the under.

Wyoming is in a lot of trouble here. The Cowboy's will be without their top 4 running backs. This is a team that runs 37 times a game, and passes just 23. They are an above average running team, but a significantly below average passing team. QB Peasley threw just 9 TDs all season to 8 INTs. They also lose their top defensive player and both CB's. Ohio. U. improved on defense tremendously as the year went on. They allowed 561 yards per game in their first 6 and just 331 in their last 7. They are the better team here, especially with all the opt-outs by Wyoming. Make the play on Ohio, U.

This will be my strongest Bowl selection of the season, and my Bowl Game of the Year! Pittsburgh has the most significant Bowl opt-outs of any team. They will be without starting QB Slovis, and RB Israel Abanikanda who rushed for 1,431 yards and 20 TDs, along with 2 offensive lineman, all 4 team captains, and at least 5 defensive starters, are all out. UCLA who is the better team to begin with, is virtually in tact, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson has taken all the snaps in practice. This is also a big deal for the players on UCLA. They can tie a school record for wins in a season at 10 with a win here, and last season they all missed out on their Bowl game as it was cancelled due to Covid-19. The Pitt defense was very good, but they will be missing their top 2 tacklers, and 3 other significant starters. UCLA is in tact, and all in for this game, and the Pitt team that got here this season, for the most part, won't be in the building. This will also be challenging because to replace the replacement starters, the players getting time off the bench are 3rd on the depth chart. My NCAAF BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR is on UCLA!

Maryland is down a lot of offensive players in this game, and have 3 significant WR's out, as well as their TE. These players have combined for 118 catches and over 1,400 yards, with 9 TDs. NC State is down to a 4th string QB, mising a WR, their starting center, and offensive coordinator. NC Sate has top defenders in tack, as does Maryland. This game will likely feature a lot of running. This game also fits a bowl total situation that is 74-49 ATS. Make the play under the total.

The big news here is Texas RB Bijan Johnson has opted out along with his backup Roschon Johnson. The Horns will also be without one of their best defenders in LB DeMarvian Overshown.Quietly Washington QB Michael Pennix the nations leading passer will play and announced his return to Washington next year. The Huskies have had just 1 season with 11 or more wins since 2000, so this is a big deal for this team. Washington was just a dog once all season at Oregon as a 12 point dog and won out-right. Texas under-played their stats all-season, and this is not where they thought they would end up. The Huskies have a pair of 1000 yard receivers and the OL is one of the best in the nation allowing 7 sacks all season, and the defense recorded 35 sacks. Texas QB Ewers has been up and down all season, and he will have to do a whole lot more without his best 2 running backs. Ewers completed just 56% of his passes. Washington fits a 50-27 ATS Bowl situation as well. Make the play on Washington.

This was a disappointing year for Oklahoma at 6-6. They barely qualified for a Bowl game, and this is a team used to playing for Championships. The 6 wins were the fewest since 1998. The Sooners allowed 41 or more points in 5 of their 9 Big-12 games. They will be without RB Gray who opted out, and with that he takes 1,364 yards and 11 TDs. They are also without both tackles on the OL. Oklahoma gave up just shy of 500 yards per game in Big-12 play, and allowed over 200 rushing yards. Florida St. is vastly under the radar. They average 2 yards per play better than their opponents on the season. The defense is strong and held opponents to 70 yards per game below their average. Down 2 on the OL and a Florida St. team that had 34 sacks, Gabriel will be under siege all game. Florida St. could get to 10 wins for the first time since 2016, and have no significant opt outs, which tells me they are coming for this game. Make the play on Florida St.

What a disappointing finish for Syracuse that opened 6-0, but finished 7-5. This is a favorable match up for Minnesota. Syracuse was beaten on the ground in their 5 game losing streak allowing 230 rushing yards a game, and Minnesota behind Ibrahim who accounted for 19 TD's. Minnesota had a 3 game losing streak, but QB Morgan was injured and Ibrahim missed a game. Syracuse will play this game without 3 All ACC defensive backs, and RB Tucker, and their LT. Minnesota held 8 opponents to under 300 total yards, and allowed just 13.3ppg on the season and just 9ppg in their last 5. I think this game is uncontested. Make the play on Minnesota.

This game stinks from the standpoint that Ole Miss is a much better team than Texas Tech. It has "sucker bet" written all over it. Ole Miss got off to a 7-0 start to a very kind schedule. During those 7 games they averaged 40.8ppg and allowed just 17.3, with a winning margin of +23.5ppg. Down the stretch Ole Miss went 1-4 and averaged 24.8ppg and allowed 33.8ppg, or a margin of -9ppg. That is a swing of -32.5ppg. Texas Tech never seemed to be healthy at QB, but Tyler Shough is healthy and will likely start. He has passed for 7.7 yards per attempt which is the best of the 3 QB's that have all thrown 125 passes or more this season. He is also the best runner of the 3. This game also fits a situation that is 47-14 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on Texas Tech.

December favorites with a total of 66.5 points or higher and not favored by 12 or more points are 33-16 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

These games always look like blow out winners to the heavy chalk. North Carolina has had a lot of opt outs. They still have Drake Maye at QB and I think the line here has been inflated too much. Oregon was sitting at 8-1 with eyes on making the 4-team playoff but dropped 2 of their final 3 games, so motivation here may be called into question. December Bowl games with a line of +10.5 to +18.5 are 49-28 ATS. Make the play on North Carolina.

This was an unexpected season at Kansas as the Jayhawks are excited to be participating in their first Bowl game since 2008. Arkansas comes limping into this Bowl game at 1-3 in their lst 4 and was abused by Ole Miss who put up over 700 yards on the Hog`s defense. They followed that up by allowing close to 500 yards vs a medicore Missouri offense. They will also be missing their center, 2 linebackers, and a starting safety. Their defensive coordinator Barry Odom is off to UNLV. I don`t see Arkansas showing up here, while Kansas should be sky high. This game also fits a 87-51 ATS situation on the Jayhawks. Make the play on Kansas.

The Central Florida Knights have played in some big Bowl games in recent years, but this will not be one of them. I question their motivation here. Duke Coach Mike Elko has done a great job at Duke in his first year, as Duke was forecast to finish last in the ACC. Redshirt freshman QB Riley Leonard had a lot to do with that throwing 20 TD passes to just 6 INT's. Leonard also led the Blue Devils in rushing (11 TDs). Central Florid has had multiple opt-outs and QB John Rhys-Plumlee is not 100%. Make the play on Duke.

Oklahoma St. has seen a lot of players opt out of this game and head to the portal, or to prepare for the NFL draft, or are injured. They will be without their starting QB, and have 10 players in the transfer portal, several of which are key contributors. The Olahoma St. offense bogged down in the 2nd half of the season as the competition ramped up. The Cowboys managed to average 13.6ppg in their last 5, and with their QB out and star running back Dominic Richardson off to Baylor, can't see that changing especially against a strong defensive team in Wisconsin. Wisconsin will be without its QB as well, but the Badgers have always been a strong running team and I think they are going to pound the rock in this one with success. Make the play on Wisconsin.

Oklahoma St. has averaged 13.6ppg in their last 5 games, while Wisconsin is averaging 16ppg in their last 4. Both teams have backup QB's starting, and this game fits a bowl situation that is 66-43 ATS to the under. Mke the play on the under.

Since the start of the 2020 season Coastal Carolina is 31-6. However half of those 6 losses have come in their last 6 games. Those 3 losses shows the weakness of this year's team as their opponents scored 45 points or more in all of them. The offense has not been delivering either as the Chanticleers have averaged under 24ppg in their last 7 contests. They are a 9-3 team that has out-gained their opponent by 1 yard per game. The defense is worse than the offense is good. Coastal Carolina has had a few starters opt out as well. Grayson McCall will start for them at QB, but he is heading for the transfer portal and has dealt with injuries late in the season. East Carolina has a better offense and a better defense, and a pretty good Qb of their own in Holton Alhers. I like East Carolina in this one.

Utah St. has not been very good from the line of scrimmage this season. The Aggies were almost a yard worse in yards per play margin than their opponents and ranked 112th in that department. They were actually out-scored by over a TD a game this season. They will not have their best player on offense in RB Calvin Tyler wh rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season. The Memphis Tigers were in just about every game they played this season. Their 5 losses show 4 of them were one-possession games. They did not win a 1 possession game all season at 0-4. The Aggies went 4-0 in one-possession games so you can see where these teams could be a lot more distant from each other. If Memphis just won half of them they would be 9-3. Make the play on Memphis.

Both Georgia Southern and Buffalo limped their way into a Bowl game as each team enters at 6-6 for the season. neither team has defended well and the Buffalo offense is well below average as well. The biggest edge in this game belongs to Georgia Southern. Clay Helton came in and abandoned the triple-option, and has an offense that generates 469 yards per contest. Kyle Vantrease the Georgia Southern Qb spent most of his college career in Buffalo, so you would have to think he is primed for this meeting. I like Georgia Southern in this one.

Bowling Green will be playing in their first Bowl game since 2016. This team has made a lot of progress over the last few years. The Falcons were 0-12 in 2020, and last year improved to 4 wins. This year they brought back 18 starters and had a winning record in the MAC at 5-3. This team can really get after the QB as they finished 9th in the nation in sacks with 37. They have a much better upside than N. Mexico St. as they have 3 outright upsets on the season. New Mexico St. is also 6-6 and had 2 wins vs FCS teams, and averaged just 19.1ppg vs FBS competition. The Aggies had the 131st ranked schedule, so a lot of cream puffs to get here. I think Bowling Green is hnds down better and it should show in this contest. This game is just over 100 miles from the Bowling Green campus, so it should be more like a home game. Make the play on Bowling Green.

This game fits my strongest total situation which is 113-48 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The biggest upset of the season was Middle Tennessee's win at Miami. They were a 25.5 point dog going into that game. For some reason after that magic moment, the Blue Raiders just had nothing in the tank and finished their last 8 games at 2-6 ATS. Middle Tennessee was -240 yards per game against winning teams. San Diego St. finished the season as a much improved team as they logged a 5-2 record down the stretch. This team defends well every year and allowed just 20ppg.A lot of distance between these teams. I will lay the points and play on San Diego St.

The NY Giants have struggled after opening the season at 6-1. The Giants have been substantially out-gained in their last 4 games, and the win vs Washington last week was a lucky one as they were out-gained by 100 yards. Minnesota is coming off a game where they were down 33 and ended up winning in what was to be the biggest comeback in NFL history. The Giants just are not a very good team, but things have broken just right for them, and they are probably going to make the playoffs. The Giants are in a huge negative situation for this game that is 14-47 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Kansas City Chiefs fit into a huge late season home favorite situation. From week 13 on a home favorite of 10 to 17 points are 160-90 ATS since 1993 against an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .630. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Detroit Lions have played very well and have a shot at making the playoffs. I think they will be dealt a blow here as they fit into a very ugly 77-147 ATS situation. Make the play on Carolina.

This game will be determined in large part on the weather. The game time temperature will be around 5 degrees, with a forecast high of 10. The wins will be gusting upward to 35 MPH, and the wind chill will be -20 or lower at times. This will likely be a top 10 worst weather game in NFL history in terms of wind and cold that both alter scoring negatively. Make the play on the under.

This will be the 7th straight Bowl for Wake Forest. Wake Forest started the season 3-0 but lost a heart breaker in OT to Clemson, and then got a huge win over Florida St. Things went downhill from their as they lost 4 of their last 5 games to finish 7-5. Missouri had a struggle offensively, but the defense held 6 opponents to fewer than 300 total yards, and they won their last 2 to become Bowl eligible. Wake's last 4 losses all came as a favorite, and with rumors floating that QB Sam Hartman is heading to the transfer portal after this game, I like Missouri here.

Louisiana comes into this game as a marginal Bowl qualifier at 6-6. A lot of these marginal Bowl qualifiers tend to do very well in Bowl games. The opponent usually isn't very motivated facing them, and they are playing for a winning season. This is close to a home game for Louisiana and a team that is .500 or worse in a Bowl game and playing a team better than .500 are 88-66 ATS. Bowl games are more situational than regular season games. Bowl teams that are 6-6 are 93-68 ATS in December Bowls. Make the play on Louisiana.

Air Force will take on Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl, played in Fort Worth, TX. This isn't a typical day in Fort Worth as the temperatures will start out in the 40s, but are projected to fall to 18 by 4PM. Winds will be gusting up to 40 MPH, with wind chills at or below zero. The Air Force run defense has allowed fewer than 200 rushing yards combined in their last 4 games. This game is going under the total.

Since a huge upset of Arkansas the Liberty Flames have flamed out. They closed the season with 3 straight losses as a double-digit favorite, and head to this Bowl game fitting a bowl situation that is 107-155 ATS. Meanwhile Toledo comes in fitting a strong 21-4 ATS situation. Make the play on Toledo.

This game fits a total situation that is 36-13 to the under in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.

Chris Creighton has certainly elevated the program at Eastern Michigan. His team won 8 games this season. That is the best mark since 1987 or 35 years ago. They are 0-4 in Bowl games, so this is an important game, and Eastern Michigan is now 35-10-1 ATS as a dog. Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

The UConn Huskies fit a bowl situation that plays on 6-6 teams in December Bowls, when the opponent has more than 6 wins. These teams are 47-26 ATS as a dog. If you consider the money line they win 46.2% of all games.Make the play on UConn.

The San Francisco 49ers lost their QB, but they will be facing a Tampa Bay team that has not found offensive answers all season. The Bucs average just 18.1ppg. The 49ers have won 5 straight games, and the defense is highly responsible for the streak as they have held their last 5 opponents to 11.4ppg. I don't think the Niners are going to have to do a lot of scoring to win and cover this o e. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Kansas City Chiefs have once again established themselves as the team to beat in the AFC. They will seek redemption in Cincinnati for not finding their way back to the Super Bowl. Joe Mixon suffered a concussion and it appears he is on the fence of playing at this time. The Chiefs are rolling with 5 straight wins, and Pat Mahomes is dealing at a high level. The Chiefs are averaging 364 passing yards per game in their last 5. They are also averaging 489 yards a game, so the running game is working as well. I don't think the Bengals can keep up here. Make the ply on Kansas City.

Both the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers are playing at a high level. The Dolphins have won 5 straight, and the Niners 4 straight. The Dolphins 5 wins has come vs opponents that are just 16-39-1 SU and none had a winning record. Their 3 previous games were all losses, so they have not beaten a team with a winning record in their last 8 games. Miami has scored 30+ points in 4 straight games winning them all. A team in the NFL that accomplishes that have been 45-61-1 ATS in their next game. Since 2009 when a pair of teams square off in the NFL and both are on 4 game winning streaks or longer, the home favorite is 13-5 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Boise St. Broncos took apart Fresno St. in their regular season meeting 40-20. That was without Fresno St. QB Jake Haener for Fresno St. A lot has changed since then. Fresno St. has won 7 straight games, the last 5 with Haener. It was an easy part of the schedule but having Haener back has not moved the needle much offensively. Boise St. fired their offensive coordinator, and changed their QB as well. Boise St. went from a significantly poor offensive team into a well above average running teams. The changes since that game have been more positively significant for Boise St. than Fresno St. Fresno St. defends the run poorly, so the Broncos will be attacking the weak point of the defense with their strength. I think this is an even better matchup than the previous one for Boise St. Make the play on Boise St.

There is a hue difference from Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall to anyone that ever played QB at Coastal Carolina.  The difference from him at QB vs anyone else is about 1.5 yards per play, and that has translated to about 10ppg worse offensively. Another factor is ball security. McCall had 7 INTs in 3 seasons, and just 1 this year. Guest, his replacement has thrown 4 in just 43 attempts. Last week vs James Madison, Coastal Carolina averaged just 2.8 yards per play in a 47-7 loss. Troy has a very strong defense and has allowed just 13ppg in their last 7. Coastal Carolina is offensive dependent to win games as they have a poor defense. I think this one is another blowout. My NCAAF Conference Championship Game of the Year is on Troy.

The game between Akron and Buffalo has been rescheduled for December 2, after the massive snowstorm in Buffalo cancelled the game back in November. This is an effort by the league, and Buffalo to give another MAC team the chance to be Bowl eligible as Buffalo is 5-6. The Bulls are not a Bowl quality team by recent play. They were 5-3 needing just 1 win in their final 4 games to become eligible, and they struck out in the first 3. Akron has been so bad for so long and their 2-9 record this season doesn't show any change on the surface. Akron has improved considerably and won their last game against Northern Illinois in impressive fashion behind back up QB Undercuffler. It doesn't matter who starts, as Irons and Undercuffler are pretty much a wash. Buffalo is a horrible -1.4 yards per play from the line of scrimmage, while Akron is just -0.9/ The Zips have out-gained their last 4 opponents, and this team is on the improve. The line here is a reputation line, and significantly inflated. Make the play on Akron.

This game fits a situation that is 77-46 ATS and the play is on the under.

These teams come into this game with similar records, but Atlanta has been very fortunate to be 5-6 on the season. Atlanta has now been out-gained in 10 straight games, and 24 of their last 27. That bubble is going to burst facing a team that is winning, and deserving to win. Washington is 5-1 in their last 6 games. Washington doesn't beat themselves as the Commanders have turned the ball over just 8 times in their last 8 games. Atlanta is losing the line of scrimmage by -75 yards per game, and the Commanders come in at a positive 12. The luck runs out on Atlanta here, make the play on Washington.

Baltimore may be 7-3 on the season but they have not looked like a 7-3 team. The Ravens have out-gained their opponents by just 14 yards per contest, and find themselves in a lot of close games. The Ravens 10 games show that 6 of those have been decided by 5 or fewer points either way. Jacksonville is slowly getting better as the Jags are +4 yards per game from the line of scrimmage, and it has been a considerable amount of time since we have seen that. The Jags are even better at home where they are +96 yards per game which is considerably better than the Raven;s on the road. This game also fits a situation that is 96-61 ATS and is on the Jags. Make the play on Jacksonville.

When the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson they thought they punched their ticket to the playoffs, and beyond. That has not materialized as the Broncos own just a 3-7 record. The Denver offense has not scored more than 23 points all season, and has been held to 16 or fewer points in 8 of their 10 games. Carolina comes into this game an even worse 3-8. The Panthers are on their 3rd QB as Sam Darnold will get the start. This is a game vs a pair of offensively handicapped teams, but Denver has a much better defense. Darnold's numbers a year ago are even worse than the yards per play the Carolina offense has generated so far, so this looks like a downgrade. I think Denver comes out on the right side of this one. Make the play on Denver.

This game fits in a rather strong 106-61 ATS situation, and the play is under the total.

This is going to be a tough spot for Stanford. The Cardinal are just 3-8 and are off a loss against their arch rival Cal in their last game. What stung more is they led the game and let it slip away. There was a lot of mental and physical energy used in that game. Stanford has no offense, and 4 RB's are out or questionable from an offense that has scored 85 total points in its last 6 games, topping out at 20. BYU won a big game vs Stanford, and two in a row and are now at 6-5 and bowl eligible. Stanford is now 6-11 ATS following the Cal game. Play on BYU.

Penn St. is 9-2 on the season, with losses to a pair of unbeaten teams in Michigan and Ohio St. While they aren't on the level of playoff teams, they have done extremely well otherwise. Penn St. has beaten 7 opponents by a combined 218 points or by 31ppg. The defense has allowed 17 points or less in 8 games this season. Michigan St, still has suspension and injury issues and lost to Indiana last week giving up 38 points. I think the Nittany Lions are playing as good as anyone right now winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 85-10. One more time for 10 wins. Make the play on Penn St.

When you look at what UT San Antonio has done the last couple of years, the program is thriving. They will be heading to the Conference USA Title game next week once again. UTEP was pounded by UTSA last year 44-23 at home. I think things will b different this year, and we lean on last year to offer the logic as to why? Last year the Roadrunners were unbeaten with the same scenario awaiting them. They were heading to the Conference Championship Game the following week. They ended up playing North Texas as an unbeaten ranked team, and even under those circumstances they pulled most of their starters in the 2nd quarter, and that included QB Harris. They ended up losing that game 45-23 as a 10 point favorite. UTEP is negative from the line of scrimmage this season, but they have out-gained their schedule of opponents by 36 yards per game because they average 10 more plays than their opponents. UTSA went into the North Texas game last year, without much of a game plan as the starters were not going to be in the game long. If they did that a year ago with an unbeaten ranked team, it certainly makes sense we see that again, which would make this line advantageous for UTEP. The Miners are 5-6 and can mke a bowl with a win. They may have a shot, but covering should certainly be very likely. My NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH IS ON UTEP.

There is a good chance at 4-7 on the season that Kent St. injured QB Collin Schlee will not play in this game. That is a huge downgrade to the Kent St. offense. Schlee completed 59% of his passes but back uo Devin Kargman has completed just 46%. When Schlee was injured last game Kargman ran the offense for 6 drives, all 6 were 3 and out and turned a likely win into a loss. Buffalo is 5-6 and is needing a win to become Bowl eligible, and I think they catch a break here. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Castal Carolina offense is highly dependent on QB Grayson McCall. McCall has suffered a season ending foot injury, and will not play against James Madison. McCall had thrown for 9.5 yards per attempt on the season, and 21 Tds to just 1 INT. His replacement Jarrett Guest has thrown just 20 passes all season, and completed just 45%. He also has not thrown a TD pass, but in his 20 attempts he has thrown 3 INTs and has been sacked 3 times. James Madison is vulnerable in the air, but Coastal Carolina does not have the ability to exploit that without McCall. James Madison allows 2.6 rushing yards per carry and Coastal Carolina is pass dependent and their running game is limited. James Madison QB Todd Centaio has been around for 6 years, and has had a stellar season with 21 TDs and 5 INTs and has been sacked just 13 times. JMU is a balanced offense, but will have its way with a rather weak Coastal secondary. Make the play on James Madison.

UCLA had their biggest game of the season last vs USC. They suffered a close loss, and I am not sure how much of a full tank they bring into this game at Cal. Cal has been a great play on team as a home dog where they are 26-10 ATS with Coach Justin Wilcox, and when the line is 7 or more that is 6-1 ATS. Lots looking the way of the Bears in this one. Make the play on California.

This game is from my best total situation and the play is on the under.

Arkansas had 3 straight home games to become bowl eligible, but they lost to both Liberty and LSU, and needed a big win. They took down a very good Ole Miss team with ease, and come into this game against Missouri at 6-5. This team hasn't been on the road in a month, and have to have that satisfied feeling off their big win. Arkansas has a strong balanced offense, but what the offense takes, the defense has given back. They average 466 yards per game, but the defense allows 452. Missouri has a plus defense, but the offense is average, but they are +25 yards a game, which is a better net than Arkansas. The combination of a satisfied Arkansas team, slight stat edge, and the fact that Missouri is bowl eligible with a win, makes the Tigers the more motivated team. Make the play on Missouri.

This game is from my strongest college football total system and the play is on the under.

Texas is likely the best 7-4 team in the country. They have had a difficult schedule, and lost some tough games. The Horn`s are 1.9 yards a play combining offense and defense that puts them in elite status. Baylor has had a good season but coming off a physical and highly emotional 1 point loss to TCU is likely to take its toll today. I`m on this game also because of huge situations favoring Texas, and equally huge situations against Baylor. Make the play on Texas.

The Minnesota Vikings were exposed last week by Dallas. The Vikings took a 40-3 beat down. This off a very fortunate win vs Buffalo where they got all the breaks, and had a 2 turnover advantage to squeak out a 33-30 win. The Vikings have been turnover dependent as they have been out-gained in their last 5 games by an average of 408-316, nearly 100 yards a game. That won't continue to produce an 8-2 record. New England has become one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games. The Patriots in the 5 wins have out-scored their opponents 125-38 allowing a stingy 7.6ppg. What does that mean for NE going forward? The Patriots are 19-4 ATS when they are off 3 straight game allowing 17 points or fewer, as long as they are not favored by 10 or more, and it is not week 17. Moreover, an NFL team off a game where they held their previous opponent to fewer than 7 first downs is 50-18-3 ATS, including 16-3 ATS as a road dog. Make the play on New England.

The Egg Bowl has historically been a lower scoring game than anticipated as these teams have played 11-3-2 ATS to the under in the last 16, as well as 7-1-1 ATS to the under in the last 9 meetings. This game also applies to a long term under situation, that is based on part on a team coming off an extraordinary rushing game. That situation is 541-360-28 to the under. Make the play under the total.

The NY Giants have been a surprising team this season at 7-3 on the season. The Giants have been aided by luck and a soft schedule and I think that catches up to them on Turkey Day. The Giants are upside down on both sides of the line of scrimmage, unbefitting to a 7-3 team. Dallas is above water on both sides of the line of scrimmage. When Dak Prescott is at QB the Cowboys have averaged 28.8ppg on the season, and have out-scored opponents by 11.2ppg. Thanksgiving favorites have ruled the roost at 35-16 ATS in the last 51 games. The Cowboys last 5 wins have come by 12 points or more, and I expect no less here. Mae the play on Dallas.

Dallas is active in a situation that is 38-7 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Detroit Lions have been playing well and have collected 3 dog wins in their last 3 games. They will be a home dog on Thanksgiving as they host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills broke a 2 game losing streak with a neutral field win over Cleveland 31-23. The Lions have not been able to get it done on Thanksgiving, especially in the role of a dog. The Lions are a woeful 1-11 ATS losing by an average of 16.8ppg as a Thanksgiving home dog of 3 or more points. Thursday NFL favorites are 162-120-8 ATS as they have the advantage over a weaker opponent on the short week. NFL favorites of -9 or more points are 29-14-1 ATS, winning by an average of 15.2ppg. Make the play on Buffalo.

If there was ever a smoke and mirrors team it has been the Minnesota Vikings so far this season. The Vikings are 8-1 on the season, but have been out-gained by 25 yards per game, and out=gained by 0.5 yards per play. I'm not sure if I have ever seen an 8-1 team that far upside down. I think Dallas in not only the better team, but they also apply to a 98-63 ATS situation that will have me backing them in this one. Make the play on Dallas.

THE PLAY IS ON HOUSTON (SYSTEM IS AGAINST WASHINGTON)

p:ADW and p:line>10 and WP>25 and WP=-3 and season>=1990 and total

The NY Giants are 7-2 on the season, and have made dramatic strides over their recent past. They have arguably the best running back in the league in Saquon Barkley, and QB Daniel Jones has cut way down on his bad choices and enters this game with just 2 INTs on the season. Detroit just seems to keep having the same issues year after year. Jared Goff will be in cold weather where he has historically struggled in his career, as his passing numbers drop off the cliff when the temperature reaches the 30s. It will be a windy day for this one and the Giants have the better running game behind Barkley and even Jones. I like the NY Giants in this one.

NY Jets QB Zach Wilson continues to struggle as he has just 4 TD passes on the season and 5 INTs. Those numbers could get worse after today's game in New England. Bill Belichick has a strong formula to defend against Wilson, and it has led Wilson to just 2 TD passes and 7 INTs in 3 games vs Belichick with a 50 passer rating. The loss of Breece Hall for the season has been felt and will be felt even more today. Bigger that all that the Jets won last week as a 10.5 point dog. An NFL team off a dog win when the line was greater than 10 points are 38-67-3 ATS in their next game. Huge letdown spot for the Jets. Make the play on New England.

The Chicago Bears love to run the ball and suddenly Justin Fields is the star of that running attack. The ball will be on the ground a lot this game, and that is going to keep Atlanta from taking advantage of the Bear`s weak secondary. The Bear`s have rushed for 238 or more yards in 5 straight games. Atlanta may be one of the worst 4-6 teams of all time as the Falcons have been out-gained by their opponents 9 times already this season, and under head coach Arthur Smith they have been out-gained in 23 of their 26 games. That is not conducive to winning. Make the play on Chicago.