Sports Picks & Predictions

The post-season is no longer in the offing for Denver or Indianapolis, so tonight's game will be for pride. Indianapolis is off a brutal bad weather game, in which 6" of snow fell during the game. The passing and kicking games were muted by the weather. This week Indianapolis is back at home under the dome, but not in a good spot. Thursday Night teams off an overtime game vs a team that did not play overtime last week are a brutal 3-21 ATS. That includes 1-16 ATS in the last 17, and 0-13 ATS if not a +4.5 under dog or more. Denver completely manhandled the NY Jets last week, shutting them out 23-0 and limiting them to 100 yards of total offense, and just 6 first downs. A team that allowed 7 or less 1st downs in their last game are 43-16 ATS in their next one, and Thursday favorites are 120-87-7 ATS, as the better team seems to have more to prepare for a short week. Make the play on Denver.

The New England patriots behind Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been a lethal combination, and continue to be. I don't think anyone would be surprised if they once again landed in the Super Bowl. They will take the field tonight without Rob Gronkowski, and he is a vital weapon for the Pats, especially in the red-zone. The Pats historically have played under as a heavy road chalk as they are 6-13 O/U as a road favorite from -8 to -15. Scoring in the NFL started to surge at the start of the 2012 season, and the games that have felt the least impact have been huge home dogs. Since that time NFL home dogs of greater than +7.5 points are 8-35 O/U. (falling short by -7.63ppg). Weaknesses don't last long around Bill Belichick. The New England defense allowed 32ppg through the first 4 games, and since no team has scored more than 17, and the Pats are allowing a league best 11.9ppg. Make the play on the under.

Sunday December 10th, 2017

The Cleveland Browns have had a poor offense for quite some time, and the Packers offense behind Brett Hundley has been awful as well. The Browns defend a lot better than their record, and Green Bay has had success vs poor offensive teams. Weather is often an issue off the lake in Cleveland in December, and it will be today as well with winds from 15-20 MPH gusting to a high as 30 MPH. Cleveland is 18-29-1 O/U in their last 48 December home games, including 4-15 O/U since X-Mas Eve of 2006, and 0-7 O/U to a toatl of 39 or less. Make the play on the under.

This is one of my favorite games of the year. I love the tradition, and make a point to watch it every year. The Army has become a lot more competitive the last few years. 

Here is an eye opener since 1980:

When Army comes in averaging less than 24.7ppg    5-15 ATS including 1-13 ATS as long as they are not a dog of more than 14 points

When Army comes in averaging more than 24.7ppg   10-6 ATS including 8-1 if competitive game from -6 to +7

Additionally, the team with more rest than their opponent is 8-2 ATS last 10. Make the play on Army.

This series has seen the last 11 meetings play under the total. That has become well publicized, and this game opened at a fair price of 52. The public immediately bet this total down to 48, and as the game approached, and snow become the operative word in the forecast, this game has continued to plummet, and is down to 44 as of this writing and may drop more prior to the start of the game. The snow does not impact these teams, nor are snow games generally lower scoring. They both run the ball on almost every play, and the kicking game is going to have little impact as neither team kicks many FG's. The value pendulum is now flipped to the over as we have 8 points and counting from the opener of value. Make the play on the over.

The New Orleans and the Atlanta Falcons will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, so the Falcons playoff chances will for a large part, be determined in the two games. Atlanta had an unstoppable offense a year ago, when everything went right. This year, it has not nearly been the same. Atlanta's offense has regressed 11.3ppg year-over-year. Matt Ryan has already thrown more interceptions this year than last, and the yards per attempt have gone from 9.4 to 7.8. New Orleans has been on a roll, and the running game has been unstoppable, which has Drew Brees in a much better place. Brees has the luxary of passing for balance vs necessity, and the numbers show it. Last year Brees threw 15 INT's, this year just 5. His yards per attempt are up to 8.1. While the Saints offense is unchanged on the scoreboard over a year ago, the more ball control, has allowed the rebuilt defense time to breath, and they have shaved 9ppg off last year's total. Brees has excelled recently vs good, but not great defenses, those allowing 17.3 to 23.3 points per game. he is 23-14 ATS against them, scoring 28.9ppg, carrying a passer rating of 104.6. Falcons home field is not providing what it did last year, as they have lost 3 here already, two of which came to Buffalo, and Miami. The Saints after 3 straight 7-9 seasons, are 10-1 in their last 11, and building a Super Bowl resume, much the same as Atlanta did a year ago, and I think they add to that resume tonight. Make the play on New Orleans.

This is a big time match up between 10-1 Philadelphia, and 7-4 Seattle. The Eagles have become in most people's minds the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL, and why not. The Eagles have won 9 straight, and covered 8 of them. What gets over-looked is the fact that they have beaten 1 team that currently has a winning record, and that was by 5 points. Seattle may not be as potent as they once were, but at 7-4, they still have plenty of talent, and winning in Seattle is not an easy task. They are 42-8 SU here since the start of 2012, and none of those losses were by more than 7 points. Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog, winning 6 of the 9 straight up. Philadelphia has blown out their last 2 opponents, but in doing so, they set themselves up in a 3-23 ATS situation. Make the play on Seattle, and don't be surprised if they win outright.

It has been a season of misery and disappointment for the NY Giants, as they have gone from a playoff team in 2016 to 2-9 this season, with no hopes for the playoffs. The offense has been riddled with injuries, and has taken a step back averaging just 15.6ppg, and even worse than that over their last 5 games at 13.4ppg. The Giants last 2 games have combined to see 51 points scored by all teams, and when 51 or less points are scored in a team's last game, they are 25-10 to the over, and the Raiders are 21-8-2 to the over in their last 31 at home. More importantly here, this game fits a 39-4 situation to the over. Make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have all kinds of issues, as they are 1-29 SU in their last 30, and here we are in December, and they are still looking for their first win. This is a team that has carried a strong home vs road dichotomy in their games. This season, they have averaged just 11ppg at home and allowed 20ppg, but on the road, they are scoring 19ppg, allowing 31.2ppg. This was also the case all of last season, scoring and allowing more on the road. The Browns last 21 road games have seen their opponent score 30+ in 2/3 of them, 27+ in 18/21, and 24+ in 20/21. The Browns offense has reached 20 points or more in half of their last 12 road games, while not topping 20 in 10 straight at home. They will have Josh Gordon in the line up, and Coach Hue Jackson says he will be instrumental in the offense this week. Chargers have allowed 24 or more points in 7 of their last 10 at home, and Cleveland has averaged 25ppg here in the last 2. Cleveland is 10-2 to the over in their last 12 on the road, while the Chargers are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 as a home favorite. Bigger than all that is the fact that road teams that scored 17 points or less, in at least their last 2 games, and also average 17 points or less on the season, and are playing to a total greater than 39, are 39-4 to the over last 43 occurrences. My NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

 It isn`t to often the Denver Broncos have a season this poor. The worst season they have had since at least 1989 was the 4-12 team in 2010, and they enter this game at 3-8. Denver is 0-7 SU/ATS in their last 7 games, but it hasn`t been quite as bad as it looks. The Broncos have made 18 turnovers or 2.6 a contest, while forcing just 4. Those numbers have a way of turning around. The Dolphins defense, that allowed no more than 20 points in any of their first 5 games, has allowed 27 or more in each of their last 6, to an average of 34.2ppg. I think the Broncos get in the winning column this week as they apply to a 52-11 ATS situation. Make the play on Denver.

The MAC Championship game will be a complete mismatch as Akron takes on Toledo. Akron, from my records will be the worst team to ever make a conference championship game. The Zips posted just a 7-5 mark on the season, and are below average on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They don't have a RB that has gained even as much as 350 yards on the season, and their QB Thomas Woodson has not played in 3 games due to a suspension, but will be available. Toledo raced off to a 21-0 1st quarter lead in the first meeting this season, and won't take their foot off the gas in a Championship game. Championship mismatches are few, but when they have occurred, it has been utter devastation. A team favored in a Championship game by 21 points are more, being played at a neutral site are 5-0 SU/ATS winning by an average score of 49-6, and covering by 17.6ppg. Lay the bundle and make the play on Toledo.

The Dallas Cowboys have really looked brutally bad the last 3 weeks, as they have failed to reach the 10 point mark in any of the 3 games. It certainly has influenced the line here, and public opinion regarding their game vs Washington. They each own a 5-6 record coming into this, and no matter the outcome here, neither of these teams are likely to make the playoffs, as they have 8 teams in front of them, and 2 others also at 5-6. Even running the table, which seems unlikely for either of these teams, might not be enough. Washington has done nothing to deserve being a road favorite for this one.Remember this Dallas offense averaged 31.7ppg the 6 weeks prior to going cold. It isn't so much cold, as it has been the turnovers, as they have made 8 in the last 3 games. Many will point to the absence of Ezekiel Elliott as the cause of the Dallas offensive futility. That is not the case. Elliott has carried for 4.1 yds. per attempt this year, and the last 3 weeks Dallas has averaged 4.4. The bigger problem was the injury to Tyron Smith, as Atlanta and Philadelphia, a pair of elite teams, had 12 sacks in his absence, and last week, upon his return gave up just 2, and on the season averaging less than that. Look for the Dallas offense to come to life after playing elite teams in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and a surging Charger's team in their last 3. Washington has allowed 33 or more points to 4 of the last 6 teams they have faced, including 33 vs this same Dallas team, and they have issues of their own. Losing RB Chris Thompson hurts both the running game and the passing game. Dallas has been a perfect 8-0 ATS (7-1 SU), at home as a PK or dog since 1990 vs Washington, winning 7 straight up, and a combined margin of +12ppg. I look for that to continue tonight in this one. The public has turned badly against America's team, as 65% favor the Skins here, but a road favorite in a division game, that carries a lot of their own baggage and injuries here, is not something I'm interested in backing. Make the play on Dallas.

It is not too often you get a red-hot team and getting points at the same time, but thus is the case for the New Orleans Saints as they take on the LA Rams today. The Saints are not only winning, they have been more of a power run offense than ever, and that just makes Drew Brees more dangerous. The Saints have lost the turnover battle in 3 of their last 4 games, normally a death sentence, but have won them all. The Rams after racking up 117 points in 3 games, were completely shut down last week vs Minnesota. Overall I think the Saints are a more experienced and complete team right now. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Carolina Panthers have their playoff destination in their own hands. While the Cam Newton led offense has had its share of struggles, the defense continues to carry this team week in and week out. They are coming off their bye week, and that has given this team some well needed fresh legs, and a chance to work on some offense. The Panthers defense has been extremely good on the road, holding all 5 opponents to season low yards. The Jets come in at 4-6, and have seen each of their last 7 games decided by one=possession. I like Carolina coming off a bye, as good teams often benefit more when they are, and this game fits a 22-0-1 ATS situation, based in part on that. Make the play on Carolina.

This is a weather play on the under.

This is a weather play on the UNDER.

This is a huge rivalry game, and a lot will be on the line for Clemson, who currently is in position to make another National Championship run. Dabo Swinney will seek his 100th win in Columbia in this game. Swinney's teams have lost just 29 total games, but 5 of those have come at the hands of the Gamecocks. Last year the Tigers mauled SC 56-7 so there is a huge payback on the line here. Clemson has not won at SC by more than 5 points since 2003, and are 0-5 ATS here in the last 5 meetings. This game fits a situation that is 55-14 ATS as well. Make the play on South Carolina.

The Iron Bowl is always a thrilling intense football teams that hate each other and do everything they have to do to come away with a win in this game. Coach Saban has never beaten an Auburn team with 9 or more wins, as he is 0-3 at Alabama, and was 0-3 at LSU, and 0-6 overall. The Tide are a great football team, but have really had an easy schedule to this point, and the tough teams they have played have stayed in the game with them home or away. Alabama is really banged up, and now thin at linebacker, and Auburn is going to deliver a punishing running game. Both these teams have elite defenses, but I think right now the Tide is vulnerable. Auburn beat then #1 Georgia easily, and has a chance to beat a #1 again. They will also get another shot at Georgia if they win here in the SEC Championship game. If they win out, they will be in with the resume they have put together, and I think they get the 2nd leg done in this one. Auburn fits a 73-31 ATS situation for this one as well, make the play on Auburn.

Central Connecticut St. has suspended their QB and key offensive lineman for today's FCS playoff game vs New Hampshire.

New Hampshire   -10   -110

The Missouri Tigers have reaslly struggled the past year or so, and opened the season with low expectations got off to a poor start and things were looking dark early. Then the light suddenly came on for this team which seems to show improvement every week. The Tigers have won 5 straight and are already Bowl eligible. Arkansas has had a tough season and at 4-7 there will be no Bowl, and not a whole lot to play for. I would not be surprised to see some young players getting a look here. Missouri isn't just winning they are destroying everything in their path, and the 5 straight wins have been by 177 points or 35.4ppg. Gonna ride this cash cow until someone slows them down. Make the play on Missouri.

The Naval Academy does a lot of recruiting in Texas, and whenever they come here, they tend to play above their level. The Navy is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 trips to Texas. Navy is also the best road dog in the country where they are 83-39-3 ATS in their last 125 games. Navy seldom gets blown out, as they have lost just 7 games over the last 5 years by more than 10 points, none this year despite battling South Florida, Memphis, and Notre Dame. Houston defense has been leaking oil allowing 474 yards a game in their last 6, and no less than 416 to anyone. Navy in this one.

The Washington Redskins stole one in Seattle 2 weeks ago, and last week they gave it back at New Orleans blowing a 15 point lead before losing in overtime. The Giants who most have left for dead, shocked the free-falling Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 in overtime. That sets them up in a bad spot for this one. teams off an overtime game and now have to play on the road in a short week, in a Thursday game are 2-17 ATS. Favorites have been tough to beat on Thanksgiving as they own a 40-19-1 ATS record to a line of -2 or more. Make the play on Washington.

The Egg Bowl will be played on Thanksgiving, as these hated in-state rivals will go at it once again. Last year Ole Miss suffered a totally humiliating defeat at home 55-20, so there will be a pretty significant revenge motive at work here. Secondly, Ole Miss is not eligible for a Bowl game this year even if they qualify, so this is their Bowl game. Ole Miss holds a 4-1 ATS mark in this series as a road dog. Ole Miss is also 11-4-1 ATS in this series with revenge, including 7-1 ATS when Mississippi has been a .700 team or better. Make the play on Ole Miss.

A lot has been made of the Dallas struggles without LB Sean Lee and also without RB Ezekiel Elliott. Certainly the results of their last 2 games would tend to verify that. Dallas has been beaten by a combined score of 64-16. So, suddenly Dallas has become a bad team to all that have 2 games on their immediate mind. We have to not lose sight of the fact that the losses came to Atlanta and Philadelphia, not 4-6 San Diego. They also turned the ball over 6 times, and Elliott ad Lee had nothing to do with that. The Chargers 4 wins have come against the Giants, Oakland, Denver, and last week vs a Buffalo team wheeling out a QB that threw 5 INT's in the first half, on their way to a +6 in turnover margin, and a 30 point win. Lost blindly i  all that was the fact they were out-gained from the line of scrimmage 6.44 yards a play to 5.96 yards a play. There is a lot of hidden value here. A team that saw their previous opponent turn the ball over 6 times are 56-74 ATS in their next game. A subset of that reads if they are posted as a road favorite in their next game they are 2-15 ATS. (0-7 ATS if it is a non-conference game). Dallas is 21-5-1 ATS from +4.5 to -1 at home if they have a winning percentage greater than 0 and less than .700. Make the play on Dallas.

The Detroit Lions have salvaged their season with 3 straight wins, and moved into the playoff hunt at 6-4. They will be going for 5 straight Turkey Day wins and covers against the surging Vikings, now 8-2, after recording their 5th straight win and cover, so something will have to give in this game. Detroit has beaten Green Bay, Cleveland, and Chicago, not exactly a gauntlet of elite teams, or even good teams. Some will look at the Detroit 14-7 win in Minnesota, and say they have proven they can not only play tough against this team, but beat them. A quick look at that game may suggest otherwise. The Vikings fumbled 3 times, and lost all 3, and out-gained the Lions 5.3 yards a play to 3.7 yards a play. Stafford was sacked 6 times, and Detroit had 10 plays for negative yardage, and Minnesota just 2. This is not a good spot for Detroit either. The Lions since the start of the 2005 season are 0-17 SU and 2-14-1 ATS losing by -13.41 points per game taking on an elite opponent, one with a winning percentage of greater than .780. That includes 0-8 ATS when the Lions themselves have been good coming in with a winning percentage of their own of .600 or better. Vikings have been a cover machine, now 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59. Minnesota can put a bow around the NFC Central with a revenge win here. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Monday Night match up between the visiting Atlanta Falcons vs the Seattle Seahawks has a lot of playoff implications. The Falcons have had injury and hangover issues after blowing a huge Super Bowl lead last year. They appear to be hitting their stride once again. While the offense has not put up big numbers, the defense has been so much better, as no team has scored more than 26 on them all season. They had 8 sacks last week vs Dallas, and Seattle has had issues on their offensive line all season. Seattle has scored 16 or less points in 4 games. Atlanta has the better offense here, and the once mighty Seattle defense is no average from the line of scrimmage. Ryan will have a good opportunity to exploit the Seahawks secondary who just lost Richard Sherman for the year, and Earl Thomas is nursing a hamstring injury. Adding to the injury woes, CB Shaquill Griffin injured his shoulder last week as is questionable. Matt Ryan has averaged 27.3ppg in his last 6 vs Seattle. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Dallas Cowboys are tied with a bunch of NFC teams at 5-4, and outside the current playoff picture. This is a critical game for Dallas, if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. The Eagles through 9 games are 8-1, and have the best record in the NFL. Dallas has to try and get it done without Ezekiel Elliott once again, but the bigger problem is T Tyron Smith's health. He missed last week, and Adrian Clayborn sacked Dak Prescott 6 times, and he went down 8 times total, and took a total beating. A weakened Dallas running game, is not helping. The Eagles have now scored 20+ points in 13 straight games, and are 9-1 in their last 10. Carson Wentz has really become an elite level QB in his 2nd year throwing for 23 TD's and just 5 INT's, with a 104.1 passer rating. Dak Prescott remains solid but his yards per attempt have dropped below 7 this season, after it being 8 last year. This is not the same offensive line for Dallas, and without Elliott, the offense really went nowhere last game. Eagles are off a bye, while Prescott took a beating last week. Eagles are 17-9 ATS off a bye, including 4-1 ATS as a road favorite. They also apply to a 141-76 ATS situation. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Detroit Lions moved to 5-4 with their 14 point win vs Cleveland last week. They remain in playoff contention, and will take on division rival Chicago, a 23-16 loser at home vs Green Bay. The Bears have struggled all season on offense as Mitchell Tribisky is a work in progress at QB. He enters with a passer rating of just 75.6, with the Bears averaging just 17.8ppg in his starts. Matthew Stafford has had one of his best seasons to date, with a passer rating of 96.3 and the Lion's offense is generating 27.1ppg. He has done a much better job with turnovers this season as he has tossed 17 TD passes to just 5 INT's. Bears loss to Green Bay last week has left them at 3-6 and the playoffs are pretty much gone now, and this could be a big letdown spot. Make the play on Detroit.

There were little expectations for the Missouri Tigers coming into this season. The Tigers managed just 4 wins a year ago, off a season where they had just 5 wins. The Tigers opened the season with 5 straight losses vs FBS opponents. They were out-scored in the 5 games 210-92. They have since turned things around, as the Tigers have won 4 straight, and have out-scored those 4 opponents by 215-66. While they have not proven they can stand up to the top of the conference, they certainly have stood out vs the middle and bottom. Vanderbilt owns just 3 winning seasons since 1982, and this will be their 4th straight losing season. Vandy is 0-6 in conference games where they have been out-scored 277-121, and allowing 46.2ppg. The Tigers have out-gained their last 4 opponents 2355-1266, and are on a roll. Vanderbilt fits into a 5-31 ATS situation, and several other indicators point to Missouri. My November NCAAFB GAME OF THE MONTH is on Missouri.

I wait for these games to come up every year. The Army recruits heavily in Texas, and currently has 23 rostered players from Texas. Coaches have even said that this is the most competitive practice week of the season. It is because players fight to make the travel team, for a lot of them it is a trip home, one that does not come often. There will be a lot of family and friends at the game. The results speak for themselves as Army is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 trips to Texas. Make the play on Army.

This game fits a situation that is 67-32 ATS and the play is on Miami.

There is a fine line between good, average, and bad in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills may be a vastly over-rated team to this point as they come into play against the hot New Orleans Saints at 5-3, and have the record of a playoff team, but it is an illusion. The Bills don't do anything good or bad, as they are pretty much a slightly below average team from the line of scrimmage. They have been out-gained by each of their last 7 opponents, and in their last 4 wins have had a turnover margin of +12. It is an unsustainable pace to be on average +3 going forward, and I expect this Buffalo team's record to erode going forward, we saw it last week vs the Jets. New orleans appeared to be heading for a bad season starting 0-2, but everything has come together for this team, including their much maligned defense, that has now allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Saints, unlike the Bills, have won their last 3 games by an average of 9ppg, despite a negative turnover margin in all 3. The Saints have also out-gained each of their last 6 opponents. Only way Buffalo has a chance here is if they are +2 or more on turnovers, so I like their chances. Make the play on New Orleans.

Washington needed a miracle last Sunday Night, and got one, beating the Seahawks 17-14 with late heroics from Kirk Cousins. They were out-gained by nearly 200 yards, but somehow managed to win. Washington spent a lot of physical and mental energy in that game, and this team is severely banged up. The Skins have 22 players on he NFL injury report. The offense has become one-dimensional, as they have run for just 269 yards in their last 4, and has gotten worse with a dinged up OL, at just 100 rushing yards total in their last 2. Minnesota is going to make things tough, as the Vikings in their last 5 games has not allowed any QB to pass for more than 161 yards, and none of their last 6 opponents has topped the 17 point mark. Menwhile, Kase Keenum has a passer rating of 88.8, respectably better than what he has done previously in his career, and more importantly has cut his interception rate down to 1.3%. The Vikings have become a player in the NFC, and should come away with the road win here. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Detroit Lions saved their season last week in Green Bay with a 27-17 win on Monday Night. That has gotten Detroit even at 4-4, but they have had red-zone issues all season. Detroit has managed just 45.8% scoring TD's in the red-zone, while Cleveland is at 45%. DeShone Kizer has been in and out as the Cleveland starting QB, and his 52% completion rate, just 3 TD's and 11 INT's are not NFL caliber at this stage of his career. The Browns have gotten to 20 points just one time this season, all the way back to game 3, and have averaged just 14.6ppg with Kizer at QB. The Browns defense is better than it looks, last year they allowed 10 teams to go for 400+ yards, and this year none. Think there is some value on the under here, and a situation here that is 31-69 O/U offers some support. Make the play on the under.

The Green Bay Packers have certainly not fared well when Aaron Rodgers has not been their QB in recent years. QB Brett Hundley has been a disaster so far, but the Packers have had 2 weeks to get him straightened out and to formulate a game plan. Mike McCarthy is a strong offensive mind, and he will have the offense geared for Hundley to have more success, and Aaron Rodgers has worked with him as well. Better news is the banged up Packers have had a chance to heal, and have a lot more defensive starters back, as well as their offensive line back in tact. Aaron Jones has given the Packer's a running game, and should be enough to slow the rush on Hundley. Detroit has even bigger issues, as they have dropped 3 straight allowing 33ppg. The offense was 0-5 in the red-zone last week, and struggling. Packers have some strength as a pass rushing unit, and Detroit has trouble protecting Stafford, and I think the Packers will disrupt some drives in that respect. Lions have never been a strong road team, and worse as a favorite where they are 9-26 ATS as road chalk since 1992, and Lambeau has been a graveyard for this team just 1-25 SU in their last 26 here. Lot of action on Detroit, but the line eroding, a good sign that big money is behind Green Bay. McCarthy is 9-1 ATS after a bye. Lions 0-15 ATS in their last 15 vs an opponent that had less than 26:30 time of possession in their last game, losing all but one of them straight up as well. A team making 5 or more field gaols in their last game is a sure sign of trouble as they are 44-64 ATS the following game. McCarthy is 30-11 ATS in his coaching career vs teams that average 60+ penalty yards a game. Make the play on Green Bay.

The NFL has become a passing league, as more and more we see the ball in the air. A team still has to run the ball to keep opposing defenses from just coming all out every down. Today in the newsletter we will examine the rushing paradox. A gambler is faced with a favorite that has not run the ball well, vs a team that just got crushed on the ground. So the paradox is, will our favorite seize the opportunity vs a team that just git out-gained on the ground by 100+ yards, or will the inept running game of our favorite be a better match for our running scared opponent. Let's take a look and supply some history to our paradox:

1)  Play against team is favored

2)  Play against team has failed to rush for 100+ yards in each of their last 2 games.

3)  Opponent was out-gained on the ground by 100+ yards in their last game.

THE RESULTS:

The favorite is a dreadful:

45-89-9 ATS  at 35.2%!

Seems like we have found our answer, today this plays against the Oakland Raiders, so on the Miami Dolphins.

This game fits a situation that is 41-14 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 113-67 ATS, and the play is on Alabama.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on Oklahoma St.

It would be easy to dismiss this UConn team after Missouri pasted them at home 52-12. The game wasn't even that clsoe, as the Tigers called off the dogs with the bulk of the 3rd quarter still remaining. Dial it back a bit further, and the Huskies dropped a 70-31 debacle vs Memphis as well. They now have to try to stand in against Quinton Flowers and the 7-1 S. Florida Bulls. The perception is, the Bulls are better than both Memphis, and Missouri, so how is UConn going to stay in this game? It is all about perception, and match ups, and this is a more favorable match up for UConn. The Bulls first of all are 7-1, and have beaten teams with a combined record of 13-36 and throw in an FCS win as well. While they tend to score a lot of points, the offense actually grades out negative, generating 5.7 yards per play vs a schedule of opponents that allow 5.9. This team likes to grind it out, and they will put it on the ground 60+ times a game. UConn has faced a similar offense in Tulsa. Tulsa had a trio of RB's that have generated over 2.000 yards and 26 TD's and held them to 194 on 44 carries. S. Florida ill be feeding Tice, Johnson, and QB Flowers on keepers, who have almost combined numbers similar to Tulsa. Beating UConn on the ground is not as easy as through the air, as Tulsa found out. Flowers is not an accurate throwing QB, as he completes just 53%, just like the Tulsa duo, President, and Skipper who complete 55%. S. Florida has beaten an easy schedule of opponents for 3 reasons. They run them into the ground, they win the turnover battle (7 games with a turnover edge, and 1 even), and run a lot more plays. The defense is above average, but their schedule of opponents average a woeful 6.3 yards per attempt in the air. UConn's QB Bryant Shirreffs may not be the best QB in the FBS, but has generated 9.1 yards per attempt, by far the best air attack the Bulls have seen all season. The Bulls have beaten 6 FBS teams, and the 6 teams they have faced have thrown 56 INT's on the season, Shirreffs has thrown 4. While it won't be freezing cold, it will be in the low 50s and drop into the 40s in the 2nd half, and living in Florida this early in the season, that will be the coldest weather this team has experienced since May of this year. Many will expect South Florida to come in loaded for bear off their first loss, but history dictates otherwise. A team that was 5-0 or better and lost their 1st game last time out by 14 or less points, and are now facing a team better than .250 and worse than .667 are 39-82 ATS! Line is way off here, make the play on Uconn.

This game fits a situation that is 177-102 ATS, and the play is on Northwestern.

This game fits a situation that is 101-66 ATS, and the play is on Iowa St.

This game fits a situation that is 88-57 ATS, and the play is on Stanford.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 51-16 ATS, and the play is on Vanderbilt.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

When I look at a game, I like to look for hidden value and there is plenty to work with regarding this game. The Lions don't get to play on Thursday Night, Monday Night, or Sunday Night very much at all. They have made 5 appearances since October of 1999 on Sunday Night and are 0-5. They have made just 4 appearances at home on Monday Night since October of 1998, and have not appeared at home on a Thursday Night since October of 1998. Needless to say, the current roster has very little experience in game preparation for these "special" games. Pittsburgh has been a fixture in these games pretty much on a season to season basis. Pittsburgh is 7-1 since 1989 vs Detroit (best record they have vs an out of conference opponent), winning by 11ppg. Detroit would appear to be the better offense here, but they are far from it, registering -0.5 yards per play from the schedule of opposing defense they have faced, while Pitt is +0.2. Detroit has scored on short fields more than any team in the league, and is averaging 11.1 yards per point, which will not continue. No team has generated more than 313 yards against the Pittsburgh defense this season. Pittsburgh allows -0.7 yards per play vs a schedule of opposing offenses generating 4.7, while the Detroit defense is even. This gives Pittsburgh the advantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and the Detroit injury list is as long as the dead sea scrolls. Pittsburgh comes in very healthy. Stafford has struggled throughout his career vs strong defensive teams, with an 83.6 passer rating against defenses allowing from 13.6 to 19.6ppg, and his Lion's team is averaging 19ppg in those contests. Pittsburgh is allowing 12.6ppg when it does not turn the ball over more than 1 time. The Steelers also fit a statistical match up situation that is 125-80 ATS. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Not too many teams come out of Seattle feeling very well. The Seahawks are 41-6 SU at home since the start of the 2012 season, and teams from the AFC that seldom play here are 0-11 SU over the period. DeShaun Watson has been a force, but most don't realize his last 3 games were all at home, and now he must go to the most difficult place in the league to play, and his inexperience is going to be tested at the top level. Seahawks have allowed 15.4ppg in the 47 games, and many think the defense is down, but 15.8ppg a year ago, and 13.5ppg this year. Make the play on Seattle.

Many were surprised that Lane Kiffin took the Florida Atlantic job. He has the Owls at 4-3, and the offense has been clicking on all cylinders, and produced a season high 69 points in their last game at home vs North Texas. The owls generated over 800 total yards of offense in that win. The problem side of the ball for this team is a defense that has allowed 31ppg on the season vs FCS opponents, and a road record of 1-2 on the season. The Hilltoppers have been given expectations beyond their means after a couple of very strong seasons, but at 5-2, they have shown signs of improvement with each game, and have now won 4 straight, and for the 1st time this season will be in the role of an under dog. Statistically, FAU brings in much better numbers to this game, along with a much tougher schedule. This is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and W. Kentucky is 18-2 SU here in their last 20 games, losing by a single point in both loses. They are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a home dog, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6, winning 5 of those outright. Owls never good in this role, and are 2-7-1 ATS as a road chalk. Hill Toppers apply to a 77-40 ATS situation as well. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

: After completing the past 12 seasons with a .500 record or better, the BYU Cougars are enduring what possibly may turn out as their worst season ever. The Cougars enter play at home with a woeful 1-7 record on the season, and stand at 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They will have their best chance of getting their first win this season against an FBS team against San Jose St. Like the Cougars, the Spartans are winless vs FBS competition this season. Biggest problem for San Jose is turnovers, as the Spartans average 3.5 turnovers a game vs FBS schools. BYU has played a much tougher schedule overall, and when there has been a battle of a pair of 1 win teams from game 8 out, the home team is 37-16 ATS, and I have a subset of that which is 18-2 ATS, make the play on BYU.

The Florida St. Seminoles last had a losing season back in 1976, over 40 years ago. They enter this game against Boston College at 2-4 on the season. this is step up time for the Noles, who have endured a lot of injuries this season, but have a deep talented roster. Are they really a pick-em team against BC, subtracting out 3 for home field advantage? The Noles have by far played the toughest schedule in the country, with no opponent under .500, with the 4 losses coming to teams that are a combined 24-4 on the season. Taking a look at those 4 opponents, the Noles actually were the better team from the line of scrimmage, 6.92 to 6.54. It was a negative turnover margin totaling -7 in the 4 games, and a negative turnover margin in all 4. Don't get me wrong, this BC team is much better than the previous few years, and have played a tough schedule of their own. The difference is, their toughest 4 games vs Clemson, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Notre Dame, show them out-gained 6.84 yards a play to 5.06. Much different than Florida St. The Noles are the better team on both sides of the ball, and in every facet. BC even had a +1 turnover edge in the 4 games mentioned above. This is not close, make the play on Florida St.

Other than a period from the 2006 season through the 2009 season, Toledo has been .500 or better in all but 1 season since 1990. This has been the most stable program in the MAC, and one that has generated 9 wins in 5 of the last 6 seasons, and at 6-1 they sure look like they will add another. The Rockets have blasted conference opponents to the tune of a 47-12 SU record since 2010, covering 60% of the time along the way. The Rockets are 123-92-6 ATS in conference games all-time. (14-5 ATS from -21 to -30). Ball St. has lost 7 of their last 30 games by an average margin of 40ppg, so this team has played some ugly games recently. They have bigger problems in this game with RB James Gilbert, and QB Riley Neal, both out. Reserve QB Jack Milas is also nursing an injured elbow. Milas is probable, but his 4.9 yd. avg. per attempt is way below average, and he has thrown 0 TD`s to 6 INT`s on the season. The Cards are also without a pair of WR`s for this game, and they have generated a grand total of 15 points in their last 3 games. Toledo fits an 84-37 ATS situation for the icing on the cake, Make the play on Toledo.

The San Francisco 49ers have been just bad enough to lose each of their first 6 games in 2017. They have lost the last 5 of them all by 3 points or less. Their first 2 games of the season saw them do nothing offensively, as they generated 12 total points and under 240 yards a game. The offense has been doing much better since, as they have averaged 25.3ppg on 366 yards per game. Last week CJ Bethard in his NFL debut looked like a poised veteran when he came in and threw for 245 yards on 19-36, and nearly rallied the Niners to victory. He will get the start Sunday. The Dallas offense is doing fine, but the defense has allowed 35 or more points in 3 of their last 4, and has been average on the season. San Francisco has been vulnerable in the air, and I would expect Dak Prescott to have a big game. A team that is off a home favorite loss, and playing on the road, in the first half of the season (prior to week 9)are 55.8% to the over. These teams in their last 4 games (8 games total), has seen the average points scored in their game at 55.8ppg. Niners 18-1 to the over as a single digit dog vs a team that forces less than 1.25 turnovers per game, and allows less than 4.95 yds a carry on the season since 2006, going over by over 7ppg. Make the play over the total.

This is based on one of my top systems which is 51-5 ATS, make the play on Indianapolis.

This game is based on one of my top systems which is 42-7 ATS, make the play on Tampa Bay.

This game is based on one of my top totals situations which is 57-17 ATS, make the play on the under.

This game is based on a statistical matchup indicator, one that has a record of 84-48 ATS, make the play on Carolina.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Wyoming.

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Michigan.

The Oklahoma Sooners will take on Kansas St. on the road. The Sooners have the best passing attack in the country, at 12.5 yards per attempt, and while Bill Snyder has worked some magic at home as the coach of Kansas St., those numbers have not held up vs ranked opponents. Kansas St. has a good run defense, but have been marginal vs the pass, and this Sooner aerial attack is by far the best they will have seen this season. Kansas St. has another issues, as QB Jesse Ertz will be out again, and he is the Kansas St. offense. Ertz duel threat ability led to a passing attack that was generating 9.3 yards an attempt, and Ertz is by far the best runner on the team. Alex Delton has completed 38% of his 34 passes at 5.2 yards per attempt. Dalton can run some, but not the same threat as Ertz. Oklahoma big in this one.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Illinois.

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 77-51 ATS, and the play is on Indiana.

The Ball St. Cardinals has seen their offense diminish considerably in the absence of starting QB Riley Neal. He has been replaced by 5th year senior Jack Milas. Milas was decent in his freshman year throwing 9 TD's to 5 INT's at 6.2 yards per attempt, but he has since regressed, lost his job, and has been pretty bad since. Milas since the start of his sophomore year has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, with just 2 TD's and 11 INT's (0 TD's and 6 INT's this year. His last 2 games have seen the Cardinal's offense produce 6 points on 3.77 yards per play. C. Michigan has generated 15ppg in their last 5, playing under the total in all 5 games. This game fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U. I will make the play on the under in this one.

: It is still a bit of a secret how much impact Jeff Brohm has had at Purdue in his first year. he had an immediate impact in his first job at W. Kentucky, where in 3 years his team averaged 10 wins a season. His teams averaged 44.7ppg during his 3 year tenure. Purdue has not won more than 3 games in any of their last 4 seasons, Brohm has them at 3 wins through 6 games, and a big win vs Minnesota. Purdue has been 3-30 in Big-10 play over the last 4 years. The Boilermakers have been out-scored by 18ppg in conference play over the period, and just 4ppg this season, despite facing Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Rutgers has a long way to go to get to where Purdue is right now. The Scarlet Knights have been buried by the top teams in the conference, and Purdue has been very respectful in all games. Purdue is positive from the line of scrimmage on defense, as well as offense, and has a huge advantage in this one on both sides of the ball. If you look at the 3 expected competitive games on the Purdue schedule, where they were favored by 6 or less, or a dog of 6 or less, they have out-gained those 3 opponents by 6.82 yards a play vs allowing 4.33 yards per play, and have gotten off an average of 8 more plays per game on top of that. Rutgers won at Illinois last week, despite being out-gained, and were also out-gained as a -6 point favorite vs E. Michigan, in a loss at home. Make the play on Rutgers.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Temple.

When you think of W. Kentucky, you think one thing, offense. That was true under Jeff Brohm, as his team averaged 44.7ppg in his 3 year tenure. Those numbers are gone, and W. Kentucky is averaging a pedestrian 25.5ppg this season, as Brohm has moved on to Purdue. Old Dominion is trying to find their way in the FBS, and the offense has really struggled this season. The Monarchs have produced just 16.2ppg against FBS opponents on the season, and turnovers have also been stinking them, as they have averaged 2 per contest. W. Kentucky has allowed 18.8ppg on the season, with no team topping 23 against them on the season. This game also fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U, and my play in this game is on the under.

It was one of the worst weeks ever in the history of Big Ben, who was picked off 5 times last week in a 30-9 home loss vs Jacksonville. It just added more question marks to a Pittsburgh offense, that finds themselves averaging shy of 20ppg. The Pittsburgh defense, has for the most part saved the day, but it is not complete. The Steelers have been elite defending the pass, which has served them well in a pass happy league, but against the run they are allowing 5 yards per carry against a schedule of teams that average just 4.3. Enter the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs run the ball better than anyone, at 5.7 yards a carry, and have elite passing numbers as well. Defensively, the Chiefs have been pretty average. The Chiefs have simply had a nose for winning, cashing in on every break, and barely turning the ball over. The last 32 non-offensive TD's scored in a Chief's game, shows KC cashing in 30 of them, opponents 2! You wonder why they are 27-4 SU in their last 31 games. They are an opportunistic good team, that doesn't turn the ball over, and feasts on opponents miscues. The Chiefs have not turned the ball over in 4 straight games. Many will believe that puts the odds against them, the "due" theory. Well, history says the exact opposite. The less a team has turned the ball over, the less they will going forward. An NFL team off a turnover free game covers 50.3%, off 2, 54.8, off 3, 67%, off 4 70.3%(83.3% as home favorite) The Chiefs are off 4. Make the play on Kansas City.

It has been a long road for the New Orleans Saints to be over .500, the last time was all the way back to the 2013 season. They have won 2 games in a row, and a win vs the Lions at home will get them back there. The Lions rally fell short last week against the Panthers at home, but they lost perhaps more than the game. Their top defensive lineman, Haloti Ngata, is now on IR with an elbow injury, and QB Matthew Stafford limped through the 4th quarter with hamstring and ankle issues, although he is expected to play, but at what level? The Lions don't have good metrics, but where they have been winning is in the turnover battle, as they come in at +8. The Saints have completed 4 games to open the season without a turnover. They became just the 3rd NFL team in history to do so. If you think they are "due" to turn the ball over, that simply is not the case. A team that has not committed a turnover in 3 straight games is 75-37-4 ATS, and if they have not done so in 4 straight games, they are 19-8-1 ATS. (8-1 ATS last 9). Make the play on New Orleans.

The Atlanta Falcons had one of those seasons a year ago, where everything seemed to work perfectly, that is except for holding a big lead in the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan was on fire and dialed in the entire season throwing 44 TD's to just 7 INT's, including the playoffs. The Falcons reached 30 points in 13 games, and went 16-3 to the over. Those seasons are hard to duplicate, and things are not looking nearly the same this season. The 34.1ppg from a year ago has dropped to 26ppg this year, and Ryan is almost at his INT total from a year ago through 4 games, with 5. Moreover, Julio Jones was injured last game, and will play, but may not be up to speed, and Mohamed Sanu is still out with a hamstring injury. Miami is 2-2 despite averaging just 10.5ppg, and that is because they have not allowed any team to get over 20 on the season, and the most points scored in their games this year by both teams is just 36. They have played some very quick games, with none of them seeing as many as 120 total plays snapped. Ryan has faced Miami twice in the last 5 years with an average of 38 points scored. Miami fits a total situation that has been 34-59 O/U since 1989, and active for this one. Make the play on the under.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers once sat atop of the college football world. Going to Lincoln was a death sentence, and National Title aspirations were part of every season. Just going back to 1980 they won 9+ game every year until 202, won 11+ games 10 times, and were 133-10 at home. They have since lost 27 at home, and never have won 11 games, and finished .500 or worse 4 times, and a loss here to Ohio St. would make them 3-4. Ohio St. looks a lot like those old Nebraska teams in the win/loss column as the Buckeyes are 66-7 under Urbam Meyere. The numbers for this Buckeye team are scary elite on both sides of the ball. They generate 7.4 yards per play vs an average defense played that allows 5.6. Defensively, they allow just 4.2 yards a play to a team that averages 6.1. That makes this team nearly 4 yards per every play against the opponents averages they have faced. Nebraska is a slightly better than average team from the line of scrimmage, but will be at a disadvantage every play in this game on either side. Urbam Meyer is 11-3 ATS at Ohio St. vs a line of -21.5 to -31, 26-13 ATS in his coaching career. A team that has allowed 14 or less points in 2 straight games, facing a team that allowed 37+ in their last game is 47-16 ATS as a road favorite. Meyer's teams are also 68-37 ATS following an ATS win in his coaching career. nebraska was out-gained at home by Arkansas St. winning by just 7, only beat Rutgers here by 10, and snuck past N. Illinois by 4, and were blown out by Wisconsin. Tre Bryant has been the best RB for Nebraska, and he has been downgraded to doubtful for this game. Tanner lee, the Nebraska QB, has already been picked off 10 times this season, and the Ohio St. secondary is the best he will have seen this season. Oklahoma's loss, opens the door for the Buckeyes who should be ready to make a big statement in Lincoln. Make the play on Ohio St.

You have to feel for Maryland, as they have had the injury bug at the QB position as an ongoing issue. This year it may be at its worst. They lost Tyrell Pigone to a torn ACL, who completed 9-12 passes at 14.6 yards per attempt, 2 TDs 1 INT. They lost Kasim Hill to a torn ACL who was 18-21 throwing for 11 yards per attempt. The 3rd string Maryland QB Max Bortenschlager, was out into the concussion protocol last week, and has yet to be cleared. Bortenschlager is no bargain to begin with completing just 54.5% at a woeful 4.5 yards per attempt with 2 TD's and 3 INT's. If he can't go, then Celeb Henderson is likely to get the nod. Henderson has been around 4 years, starting at North Carolina, before transferring to Maryland. He has thrown exactly 2 passes in 4 years, 0-2. He has injury issues hurting his foot, and then reinjuring it in the spring, so he has not been taking any reps at all, until recently, and may not be even healthy. Northwestern is great against the run, so that does not leave a lot of offensive options for Maryland in this game, as with little threat in the air, the Wildcats can load the box, and be even better against the run. Maryland in big trouble here, make the play on Northwestern, my NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR!

The W. Virginia Mountaineers spent a lot of energy last week in Fort Worth, where they lost to a very good TCU team 31-24. They come home to face a Texas Tech team, that has been better than expected as the Red Raiders are off to a 4-1 start, losing only to Oklahoma St. by 7. The Red Raiders have played 82 points above the line. Texas Tech has been the FBS long term version of the greatest show on turf. They own a stellar 120-82 ATS mark when playing on turf, including 18-5 ATS the last 3 years, and have played well in the role of a road dog of late, covering their last 4. They have often been a team that fades late in the season, but prior to game 8 they own a 96-61-6 ATS mark over the last 20 years, and just 58-65-1 ATS from game 8 on. Morgantown is a tough place to play as indicated by the Mountaineers 145-30-3 SU mark here, but they are just 78-94-6 ATS in those games, often over-priced. That has been especially true as a home favorite vs Big-12 opponents where they are just 5-12 ATS. Texas Tech fits into a huge 72-23 ATS situation this week based in part on teams off at least a pair of spread wins with a competitive line, on the road. Make the play on Texas Tech.

The SEC is and has been considered the best conference in college football. Will Munchamp took over a Florida program with expectations beyond what was possible, had a lot of injuries during his tenure there, and never quite lived up to expectations. He took over a South Carolina program last year, that won just 1 conference game, and took them to a Bowl last year. The Gamecocks are much improved, and already own a big win over NC State, that looks much bigger now. While the offense is pretty ordinary, if they are able to run the ball they tend to win, when they can't they lose. They should be able to run vs a Tennessee team that has allowed 1263 yards on 245 carries this season, with every opponent, including Umass topping the 100 yard mark. While it is true for most teams, if you can't run you don' win, it is especially true for SC under Muschamp, as they are 9-2 gaining 100+ on the ground and 0-7 when they don't. His coaching career shows 100+ on the ground 37-15, less than 100 1-15. The last time Tennessee held a conference opponent to under 100 yards rushing it was November 21, 2015. So a good marker to start with. This game also fits a strong 75-23 ATS situation in favor of South Carolina. Make the play on South Carolina.

Mike Leach coached at Texas Tech for 10 years, and went to 10 Bowl games. He has been at Washington St. now for 6 years, and this will be his 4th Bowl season, although this one might be for a National Championship. His teams are known for prolific passing attacks, and with Heisman candidate Luke Falk at QB, who leads the nation with 19 TD's and just 2 INT's, it may be the best offense he has had. What Leach has this year that he has never had, is a defense which is arguably better than his elite offense. The Cougars defend the run very well, but in the air, they are one of the best in the country, and Cal can't run the ball at all, and will be forced into the back end of the defense which is going to be troublesome. Cal scored just 7 points against another elite defense vs Washington last week, and while they defend the pass well, they have not seen a QB as experienced, and as precision as Falk. Make the play on Washington St.

This line may look a bit suspect with Carolina laying more than a FG, but there is a hidden reason for it. Carson Wentz is having another great start to his season, but things look ominous without Lane Johnson at tackle. last year the Eagles went 5-1 with Johnson protecting Wentz' right side (2-8 without him), and off to a 4-1 start this season. Johnson is in concussion protocol, and will not play tonight, and Halapoulivaati Vaitai is no match for Mario Anderson, and I think Wentz is going to be under a lot of pressure. Another issue is the elite class of the Carolina linebackers. They simply shut down TE's and RB's coming out of the backfield. TE Zach Ertz is a very good player, and has been targeted 48 times, 10 more than the 2nd most TE. He may not be free to do much damage tonight, and he is an integral part of the Eagles attack. Christain McCaffrey has not run the ball well for the Panthers, but his value is in short passes, and has been a favorite of Newton, and leads the team in receptions, and his work in this area, has been an extension to a poor running attack. Cam newton looks like a different player, he has gained confidence that his repaired shoulder is ok, and is completing a career high 68.3% of his passes. He has looked like a different player the last 2 weeks, and I would expect he continues to play at a higher level, maybe not up to the standard of the last 2 weeks, but more 2015 than 2016. Newton is 19-11 ATS as a home favorite, and Wentz has been awful as a road dog, throwing 8 TD's to 9 INT's with a woeful 58% completion rate, as well as a poor 71.9 passer rating. Thursday Night home favorites have a big edge and are 114-84 ATS, covering 57.6% on the blind, and 74-51 ATS at home, 59.2%. from week 6 on teams off a dog win that are at home and .750 or better, against an opponent, that is also .750 or better are 17-2 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

The Houston Texans are undoubtedly a better offensive team with Watson at QB, as he has averaged 7.5 per attempt on the season, in his 3 games. Last week the Texans rolled up 57 points, taking advantage of 5 Tennessee turnovers, and lived in the red-zone with 9 attempts. I won`t be as easy this week against what has quietly been the NFL`s best team over the last 30 regular season games. The Chiefs are 26-4 SU over that period, 20-10 ATS. How can a team that has been out-gained in 17 of those 30 games, and out-gained overall in those 30 games be 26-4? The answer is quite simple, they force turnovers and don`t make many. The Chiefs average just 0.8 turnovers a game in their last 30 while forcing 2.1 per game. Quite simply put a team that has a 1 or more turnover advantage in an NFL game wins 86.9% of the time, and covers 84.9% of the time. The Chiefs continue to do their thing, they turn you over, and run out the clock. They have just 1 turnover in their last 3 games. A team that has played 3 straight turnover free games, facing a team that has made at least 3 turnovers in its last 3 games, are 63-28 ATS, with a 20-4 ATS subset. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Jacksonville Jaguars today. The Jaguars have not gotten the consistency out of QB Blake Bortles that they had hoped to have at this stage of his career, despite an inflated 44 points against Baltimore 2 games back. Bortles has a very pedestrian 81.7 passer rating coming into this contest, and their 5.8 yards per attempt vs defenses that average allowing 6.7 is considerably below average. The running game is +0.2 yards vs the defenses they have faced, so their 27.2ppg average is heading for a rather steep regression. Defensively, the Jags are allowing just 18.5ppg, and the biggest reason is their pass defense allowing just 4.8 yards per attempt. The Jags can however be run on, and I expect Pittsburgh to put it on the ground often here, as their offense has been very poor through 4 games, generating -0.5 yards per play vs what the defensive average of opponents allows. Pittsburgh has been even more elite than Jacksonville vs the pass, allowing 4.4 yards per attempt, but also struggle stopping opponents ground games. This game looks to be a ground war, and the last 23 meetings between these clubs has seen an average of just 36 total points scored, and Big Ben, in 7 games vs the Ville has averaged just 18.3ppg, and in the 23 meetings, Pittsburgh has never topped 30 points. Make the play on the under.

The Colts have announced that Andrew Luck will once again not play. That only means one thing, the Colts will struggle. History dictates their poor defense will assure they do, as a team that is playing as a home favorite, that allowed 28 or more points in at least 2 straight games, facing a team off a less than 6 point loss are 22-50 ATS. The Colts average just 17.8ppg, despite converting 70% from within the red-zone, which is likely to regress, so getting lucky, and still struggling does not bode well. The Niners are 0-4 but have been knocking on the door, and defend the run very well. Generally speaking, when a team is winless after 4 games or more they cover 56.7% of the time. San Francisco also applies to some extremely strong situations for this game, which are 102-48 ATS, and 72-20 ATS, with a subset at 42-6 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

Maybe the Detroit Lions all carry a rabbit`s foot with them during games. The Lions are 3-1 on the season, and everything has gone their way. They were beaten severely from the line of scrimmage last week by more than 1.5 yards per play, but won. The Lions offense may be ranked in the top 10, but they have scored mostly from starting drives in opponents territory, as they rank last in the league in drives starting in their own territory. Carolina has a legit defense, and have finally taken the collar off of Cam Newton, and are back to allowing him to create plays and impact games with his legs, which is where he excels. Carolina has been the better team thus far on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Panthers apply to some strong turnover situations here as well. Make the play on Carolina.

Maybe the Detroit Lions all carry a rabbit`s foot with them during games. The Lions are 3-1 on the season, and everything has gone their way. They were beaten severely from the line of scrimmage last week by more than 1.5 yards per play, but won. The Lions offense may be ranked in the top 10, but they have scored mostly from starting drives in opponents territory, as they rank last in the league in drives starting in their own territory. Carolina has a legit top level defense, but has allowed 62.5% TD`s in the red-zone, but only 8 attempts, and strong defenses are not prone to that type of percentage, so expect that to drop. This game also fits a totals indicator, based on how these teams got here off of last week, which has been 22-58 O/U and particularly strong recently. Make the play on the under.

It is rare to find a program like UT San Antonio, that has assembled a very strong defense in a low level conference. Combine that with a team that has 0 injuries to report at This stage of the season, and you have a dangerous team. UTSA opened some eyes when they went on the road and held Baylor to  10 points and 274 yards of total offense, while neither of their other 2 opponents have reached 200 yards. They have also been potent on offense averaging 47.5ppg against teams not from the P5. Frank Wilson has done a great job here. S. Miss imploded last week at home vs North Texas, owning a 21-7 lead at the half and getting pounded in the 2nd half 36-7, as a better than a TD favorite. This while having won the turnover battle 2-0. Nothing shouts trouble more than those numbers. UTSA is a very balanced offense generating 744 yards on the ground thus far, and 706 in the air, while their opponents have generated a total of 621 yards in 3 games. S. Miss is going to have problems moving the ball, while UTSA has proven they not only can get stops, but beat you with a pretty decent balanced attack on offense. Better than that, UTSA is in a mega situation for this contest, one that has delivered a 100-46 ATS mark. Make the play on Texas San Antonio.

This is the one game other than Navy when it appears on the schedule, it becomes a big deal. Army does a ton of recruiting in Texas. The Black Knights 2017 roster lists 22 players from Texas. Coaches say this is the most spirited and focused week of the season, as players try to work hard to make the travel roster, and see some family and friends that travel to the game. Usually a parent or two will have a big dinner for the players at their house after the game. Needless to say inspired by family and friends, Army and Navy as well are a combined 26-4 ATS when playing in Texas! pretty much sums it up, I make these plays a must everytime they come up. Make the play on Army.

The Florida St. Seminoles opened with Alabama, and lost, but played a very good game, especially defensively. Although they lost, they maintained the mindset they could still run the table, but then the unthinkable occurred, they lost their starting QB for the season. The next game was a home loss to NC State, and that was followed by a close call at Wake Forest. The defense is spending too much time on the field, and the offense is very ordinary. Miami is a multi-dimensional team, one capable of winning the game on either side of the ball. The offense is good enough to score some points here, but the same can't be said for Florida St. against an above average defense. Not only that but the Canes fit a very strong 73-23 ATS situation for this one as well. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

There are a lot of similarities to W. Virginia, and TCU. They both have star QB's who transferred in from major P5 programs, they both have displayed prolific offenses, and both programs have a history of success. Where they are different lies the key to this contest. W. Virginia runs the ball very well, but the TCU run defense has been historically great under Gary Patterson, and is certainly the case this season. The Frogs run the ball with equal ability, but W. Virginia struggles to stop the run as evidenced by Kansas' Khali Herbert rushing for 291 yards against the Mountaineers, Kansas? Moreover, the Mountaineers have struggled on the road vs the uper tier of the Big-12. W. Virginia won 9+ games in their last 7 seasons as a member of the Big east, but just 1 time in 6 years in the Big-12. The main reason is against the upper tier (Kansas St., TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., and Baylor), they are a combined 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS on the road, losing by 20ppg! Last year W. Virginia won 10 games, but once again, the losses came on the road to Oklahoma St by 17, Oklahoma by 28, and in their Bowl game vs Miami by 17. TCU has major revenge here. They lost 34-10 last year in Morgantown, their worst loss ever as a member of the Big-12. Pay back is in order here, make the play on TCU.

Friday October 6th, 2017

  Top Side Play · [308] Connecticut Huskies       +14   -115 (Bovada)
    Fri Oct 6th, 2017 7:00pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Analysis: Many bettors see this one as free money, as Memphis, who already owns a win vs UCLA, takes on Uconn, a team that has beaten just 11 FBS teams in its last 50 games. This game opened at Memphis -16 and has eroded all the way down to -13 at a couple books, despite the fact that the public is backing Memphis at better than 61%. That raises red flags all over, as it simply says the larger bets are coming in on the Huskies, so 38% of the money is much greater than 61% of the money on the Memphis side. History shows, when this is the case, the bigger (often wiser) money is on the low percentage team, in this case Uconn. Huskies have arguably the worst defense in the FBS, but before you give the Tigers a big edge here, they are right near the Huskies at the bottom of the FBS. Huskies air attack generating 9.8 yards per attempt vs opponents surrendering 8.2, but defense allowing 8.7 vs opponents that average 7.3, has given it all back. Huskies don`t get to perform in the national spotlight too often, but have taken advantage of those opportunities, as they are 15-6 SU and 13-8 ATS at home on these weekday affairs. They have played 10 of these contests as a home dog, logging 6 wins to an average line of 10, so plenty capable of pulling off the surprise. remember Memphis beat UL Monroe at home by just 8 points. Monroe has allowed just shy of 40ppg to the likes of Coastal Carolina, LA Lafayette, and So. Miss. They also beat FCS opponent S. Illinois by just 13 at home, allowing them 31 points. For the record S. Illinois lost last week at home to Northern Iowa, and scored just 17 points. Memphis is living off a huge win vs UCLA who was ranked at the time. UCLA is 3-2 now, with a miracle 1 point comeback win vs AM at home, and led Colorado, also at home by 1 point with :30 seconds to go, before adding a late FG. This is a monster sandwich game for Memphis. They just got hammered 40-13 vs C. Florida, and have a revenge game vs Navy next week at home, followed by Houston the week after. That means Memphis s off a game vs an undefeated opponent, and has an unbeaten opponent, with revenge, in their next game, making this a very dangerous spot for the Tigers. This is a season saving opportunity for Uconn, staring down the barrel of 1-4, and with a 3 game late season rough spot taking on BC, C. Florida, and S. Florida for 3 in a row, only a win here would make a win in any of those 3 games significant. This is a `step up` game under the National spotlight for a team, desperately needing a morale booster, and have the right set of circumstances here to make it happen. Make the play on Uco

Whenever the Pats have looked bad over the past few years, the question of Tom Brady's age comes into play. Those moments remain few and far between, and the Pats 2-2 start has nothing to do with the offense. The pats have the worst defense in the league through 4 games, but I wouldn't get to crazy regarding the Pats demise just yet. Bill Belichick often gets things worked out, and I would not be surprised to see them play at a much higher level on defense tonight. This is a team that has a marked history of getting off the mat after a loss, and coming back in their next game and dominating. New England is 28-2 ATS following a loss since the start of the 2003 season to a line of less than -7 in regular season games. (21-0 ATS if their opponent is better than .570). Beating Brady & Belichick isn't easy on a full 6 days of preparation, it is even harder in 3 days, especially after a New England loss. Jameis Winston has slowly improved as a QB, but still tries to force things from time to time, and he may feel the pressure of having to score a lot here, and make a critical mistake or two. Overall, the numbers in this case speak very loud on behalf of the Patriots, make the play on New England.

This game reminds me a whole lot of last weeks game between Clemson and Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech came into the game over-rated, against a formidable opponent at home, as does NC State this week. NC St. is simply a lot like Virginia Tech, they are at this point of the season over-rated. That occurred because they went to Florida St. to face a team that lost the heart of their offense in QB Deandre Francois, and it showed up for the Seminoles again last week, barely sneaking by Wake Forest. Remember, NC State has lost to South Carolina, did not cover vs Marshall or Furman, and failed to cover again vs Syracuse, who played them even from the line of scrimmage. All together NC State has been +0.3 yards better on offense than the schedule of opponents they have faced, and -0.5 worse on defense, that is a net negative from the line of scrimmage. Louisville is better than any of the 5 opponents the Wolf pack has faced this season, and have a Heisman QB that is  duel threat, and a lot of weapons at his disposal. The Cards explosive offense has been +1.5 yards better than their opponents allow, which is elite, and the defense is has been +0.2 for a net from the line of scrimmage of +1.7. Louisville applies to a 84-60-3 ATS situation that plays on great passing teams, those averaging more than 300 yards a game, as road favorites of less than -7, from week 4 on. (7-3 ATS on a Thursday Night). Overall that equates to a 10 point Louisville win, so things will have to go haywire for Louisville not to win and cover here. Make the play on Louisville.

  Top Side Play · [280] Kansas City Chiefs
    Mon Oct 2nd, 2017 8:30pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

The NY Giant offense is a total mess, and not up to speed with typical NFL standards. Outside of a breakout 4th quarter against Philadelphia, through 3 quarters of play in their 3 games they are averaging 4.3ppg. Overall on the season they average just 12.3ppg. There troubles didn`t start this season, as they failed to score 20 points in each of their last 6 games in 2016, and have now scored a woeful 129 points in their last 9 games, at 14.3ppg, and Giant`s games have now averaged 37.6ppg in their last 20 played. The Bucs have been inconsistent on offense, and are 6-2-1 to the under over their last 9 games. This game fits several under indicators that are 25-3,23-6-1, and 21-58. Make the play on the under.

The Arizona Cardinals opened their game vs Dallas on Monday Night, looking like a team that was ready to play. Dallas only managed to get 3 snaps the entire 1st quarter. The problem was, as dominate as they looked in the opening period, they looked ordinary from that point on. This team seems to lack intensity, and focus, as they take on the San Francisco 49ers this week. The Niners offense through 2 games was as inept as ever, managing just 12 total points, but they came to life vs the Rams in a tough 41-39 loss. QB Brian Hoyer threw for 308 yards in that one, and in his 16 starts in the NFL as a road dog, his team is 10-6 to the over. Carson Palmer has no running game with David Johnson out for the year, so it is no surprise the cards have averaged 44 pass attempts per contest. This game fits a match up situation that has produced a 66-28 ATS mark to the over, with more supportive strong situations as well. Make the play on the over.

Sometimes the light goes on for a QB, in year one, year two, year three, or sometimes not at all. The coaching changes, and new offense for the Rams has been taken on by QB Jered Goff. Goff was a `can`t miss` prospect that really struggled last year, but he has really awaken, and starting to pay dividends for the Rams. Goff has a 118 passer rating through 3 games, and the Rams are averaging 35.7ppg. The Rams offense has produced 40 points twice in three games, and to give that some perspective, they managed 40 just 3 times since December of 2006. The Rams are 2-1, and this is their biggest game in quite some time, as a win legitimizes them as a playoff contender. Dallas has not looked the same this season, and they have a lot of new parts in the secondary, that I think Goff will be able to exploit. This is another match up situation that has produced a 66-28 ATS totals indicator, and it has me backing the over.

One NFL team that was on my radar for 2017 as improved was Tennessee. That opinion hasn't changed. They had a huge game last week vs Seattle, one that could prove they belong with a win. They out-played the Seahawk's most of the game, and came away with a huge win. Huge, I mean for this team's psyche, a loss would have left them wondering, but that win is going to have them in a totally different mindset, they belong. QB Marcus Mariota has arrived, he is doing a better job of taking care of the ball, and has a set of RB's that are changing the offense, and allowing the defense to get extended rest. DeShaun Watson reminds me of Mariota a couple of years ago. He is playing with a limited set of plays, is feeling himself through games, but also making critical mistakes. he has a 77.5 passer rating, but he can hurt you with his legs, and Tennessee better be aware of that, as I am sure they are. You can see the potential, he just needs time. Houston has been exposed through the air, and might expect Tennessee to take advantage of that, otherwise, I see Tennessee as the team with the mojo right now, and Houston has to be feeling stung after letting one slip away in Foxboro last week. Early in the season, prior to week 5, a team off a road loss and now at home in what amounts to a pick 'em game from +3 to -3 have failed miserably as they are 77-120 ATS. That includes 15-29 ATS if the loss was a stinger, by -4 points or less. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Miami Dolphins caught a bad break when Ryan Tannehill went down with a season ending injury. The Dolphins saw themselves with little choice, and coaxed Jay Cutler out of retirement. The problem is Cutler has been pedestrian at best his entire career. The Miami passing attack numbers reveal, that through 2 games the Miami offense ranks as being the worst in the NFL, and last week vs the NY Jets, they hit bottom, failing to score until the last play of the game. The bad offense puts pressure on a reasonably average defense, but one that suffers against the pass, and that is Drew Brees at his best. Miami has had a very difficult scheduling fluke, as their opener was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. They have since gone to the west coast to take on the LA Chargers, fly back to Miami, fly to New York to take on the Jets, fly back to Miami, and now fly to London. This team is not playing well, and additionally, have to be feeling travel fatigue. Jay Cutler seems to struggle when his team needs him to put points on the board. He is a woeful 6-28-1 ATS in his career when the total is 47 or higher. The Saints tightened some things up a week ago holding another bad offense to 13 points, in Carolina, should be able to mange the pathetic Dolphin offense here, and exploit the Fins poor pass defense, that is allowing 9 yards per attempt vs much worse offenses. New Orleans in this one.