Sports Picks & Predictions

Roy Halladay is perhaps the most mentally tough, focused pitcher in baseball. That means he is going to be at the top of his game today as he returns to the stadium he played most of his career in for the first time as a visitor. He'll be comfortable in the setting, he knows much of the opposing lineup well, and the crowd will be very supportive of him. The only time he faced Toronto - last year in a game that was supposed to be in Toronto but was moved because of the G8 - he was very strong. He has been very effective recently as well. He's up against part time starter Carlos Villanueva. He has not been strong at home, and will have his hands full against a Phillies lineup that is confident after having won four of five. Toronto has lost four of the last five, and eight of 12, so they are not in strong form.

The Cardinals won convincingly last night, and with a more favorable pitching matchup today I expect the mini-streak to continue. Chris Carpenter starts for the Cards. While he has struggled a fair bit this year he is coming off a very good start against a tough Philadelphia team, and his control has been strong in his last two, so I like his chances here. Baltimore's Chris Jakubauskas has not been particularly sharp in limited starting action this year, and he is definitely vulnerable to a St. Louis team that scores a pile of runs on the road.

10 Unit Play. #917 Take Boston over Pittsburgh (Saturday 7:05 pm MLB.tv) The Pirates have surprised many this season under new manager Clint Hurdle and have hovered around the .500 mark for much of the season. That being said, they do not have the talent to compete with the Boston Red Sox on a day-to-day basis. Boston is coming off a disappointing series with the San Diego Padres in which they dropped the series by losing the last two games in Boston, MA. They will send Tim Wakefield to the mound on Saturday, as he looks for his fifth victory on the season in just nine starts. He has only lost one game since May 7th and has won 4 of his last 5 decisions. He is coming off a solid performance against Milwaukee last Sunday in which he went 8 innings and allowed just 3 runs. The Brewers are a much better hitting team than the Pirates and starter Jeff Karstens has not seen a line-up like the Boston Red Sox this season. Karstens career numbers are a better indication of the type of pitcher that he is and they features a .280 opponents

10 Unit Play Take 974 St. Louis vs. Toronto (8 pm ET) This is a battle of struggling teams with offensive power that just isn't firing right now. I'll take the home team in this one - especially since they are coming off such an impressive performance. St. Louis woke up in a big way yesterday and crushed Philadelphia 12-2. Toronto was off yesterday, but had been ineffective four games before that. Jake Westbrook starts for the home team. He hasn't been dynamic, but he has been remarkably consistent and can be counted on for a decent effort. Toronto counters with the wildly unpredictable Brandon Morrow. Morrow threw more than six shutout innings last time out, but allowed nine runs in just over four innings the time before. Toronto's offensive woes are more serious and more difficult to understand, so they are harder to trust.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take 968 Cleveland vs. Colorado (7 pm ET) The Indians have lost the first two in this series, but they have been playing well recently and swept their last series, so I don't expect them to get swept at home here - especially because they have been so effective playing at home. The Rockies have swept just one series of three or more games on the road this year, and that was way back at the beginning of April, so this is not their position of strength. Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin went through a rough period, but he pitched very well last time out, and you could visibly see his confidence grow thanks to that performance. He has been very effective much of this year, and is very capable of shining against a Colorado team that has struggled badly to score on the road. Colorado is starting Jason Hammel. He was very ineffective last game and has had control issues in his last two, so he is the harder pitcher to trust here.

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10 Unit Play Take 915 Toronto at Atlanta (7 pm ET) Toronto has to be very frustrated after not hitting particularly well recently and being shut down yesterday by Tim Hudson. Their bats are going to get going again, though, and this is a good spot for that to happen. Mike Minor has only made five starts this year, and in this starts he has let far too many men on base. He has looked uncomfortable at home in two starts, and is hard to trust here. Toronto counters with Zach Stewart. He is making just his second start, but he had good comfort and command last time, and is in a good spot to succeed here against some fairly light bats. Toronto is a strong 18-13 as an underdog of less than +150 this year, so they are a good team to back in this spot.

10 Unit Play Take 957 Yankees at Cincinnati (7 pm ET) The Yankees have won eight of ten, started well in interleague play, and are playing good baseball right now. Cincinnati has struggled against the American League (just 1-5 this year), and struggled badly to score against Toronto - just four runs in three games. The Yankees have been a strong road team - 18-12 - and have been getting very strong bullpen performance away from home. Ivan Nova starts for the Yankees. He's not the most exciting pitcher, but he has been solid in his last three and solid on the road. Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto has been very strong recently, but he has done it against weaker hitting teams than he faces here, and I expect the Yankees to really test him.

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10 Unit Play Take 953 Pittsburgh at Houston (2 pm ET) The Pirates are above .500 and playing with a ton of confidence. They have a shot at getting their first sweep of the year, and I expect them to be motivated to do so. James McDonald is their starter. He was very good last time he faced Houston, and showed a lot of guts in working through some issues to get the win last time out. Houston starts rookie Jordan Lyles, who is making just his fourth start. He has been solid in two of three, but he has to deal with a new pitching coach here after a change was made on Tuesday. That could overwhelm the youngster and gives Pittsburgh an edge.

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10 Unit Play Take 905 Atlanta at Florida (7 pm ET) Florida has lost seven in a row and nine of ten, so they are not in a good place, and they are facing a pitcher that is not going to make it easy for them to turn things around and end their longest losing streak in two years. Jair Jurrjens has been very good all year, and has been effective on the road as well. He has been consistent, and has enjoyed success against Florida in the past. He's clearly the best pitcher in this game. Florida starts Chris Volstad. He has not been as strong recently, and has an ERA more than four runs per game higher than his opponent.

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4 Unit Play Take 963 St. Louis at Houston (8 pm ET) Houston has lost four in a row, including the opener of this series, and all four have been by multiple runs. They aren't as competitive as they wish they were right now. St. Louis, on the other hand, has won four straight - all divisional tilts - so they are feeling good. They are a strong 19-13 on the road at a Houston team that is just 11-18 at home, and they are a very impressive 29-17 against right handed starters. Their offense is producing an average of two more runs per game than Houston does when they face a lefty. The lefty in question is Jaime Garcia. He was terrible two games back but bounced back nicely last time out. His road numbers are inflated because of that implosion at Colorado, but he is generally a solid road pitcher - especially against weaker teams like this. Bud Norris gets the call for Houston. He has already faced St. Louis twice this year, and while the first one was okay the second one didn't go his way at all. The Cards will be ready for him, and they will exploit him.

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10 Unit Play Take 927 Seattle at White Sox (8 pm ET) The Mariners lost last night, but they have not dropped two in a row since May 13, and they are 15-6 overall since then. They are facing right handed starter Philip Humber, and that's a good thing - the Mariners are an impressive 24-17 against righties. Oh yeah - Seattle also has the best pitcher in the American League starting for them. This is a good spot. Felix Hernandez has been strong on the road, he's coming off a very good start, and his one other appearance against the White Sox this year was very good. Humber was hit hard last time out, and is not nearly as easy to trust here.

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10 Unit Play Take 926 Kansas City vs. Minnesota (8 pm ET) The Royals are looking to bounce back from a rough loss last night, and they are in a very good position to pull it off. Minnesota starts Carl Pavano. He has given up too many hits in his last two starts, and has been ineffective on the road. He has faced Kansas City once already this year, and he was beaten up by them. The Royals will be confident. Kansas City starts Danny Duffy. He has been reasonably solid in his last three starts - including two on the road - so I am confident in him here. He doesn't eat a lot of innings, but he has a solid bullpen behind him.

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4 Unit Play Take 960 Cleveland vs. Texas (7 pm ET) Cleveland had a rough series of games, but they have bounced back with two big wins against Toronto and seem to have their mojo back. Now they face a Texas team that is playing well recently but which is still well below .500 on the road. Carlos Carrasco starts for Cleveland. I like how he is pitching recently - especially his last game against Tampa. He's not an ace, but he is solid, and he has a good bullpen behind him. Texas starts Dave Bush. He's a spot starter who hasn't started since May 8, and who has averaged just 3.5 innings per start in his two starts this year. I find it very hard to trust him given how confident the Cleveland bats have been the last couple of games.

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10 Unit Play Take 921 Yankees at Oakland (3:30 pm ET) The Yankees have won nine straight against the A's, and Oakland pitcher Gio Gonzalez has been torched by the Bombers the last two times he has faced them at home. That all sets up well for a Yankees win here. New York has been very confident at the plate lately, including 15 runs in two games at Oakland so far. The A's have been outclassed in this series, and they have a bad habit of falling into a funk after they lose a couple in a row. Gonzalez has been sharp recently, but the last three outings have come against weaker teams at the plate. This is a different story for him. A.J. Burnett goes for the Yankees. He has been solid in his last two, and has generally been decent against the A's.

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10 Unit Play Take 967 Texas at Tampa Bay (6:30 pm ET) Texas won big at Tampa Bay last night, and they are positioned to win again here. The chief reason is the pitching mismatch. Texas starts C.J. Wilson. I really like how he is pitching recently and on the road. He has just one career start in Tampa, but it was a sharp one. There is a good chance of success with him. He's up against Alex Cobb. Cobb has been called up from the minors to make his second career major league start. The first was at the beginning of May and it was pretty rough. Texas has scored 35 runs in their last four games, so they are very confident offensively, and that's not good news for Cobb. Tampa has lost 10 of 15, so they aren't playing well right now, and it will be tough for them to overcome the issues in this one.

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10 Unit Play Take 928 Toronto vs. Cleveland (7 pm ET) The Indians are suddenly reeling - they have lost four of five and can't score runs. Starting Fausto Carmona is not going to help the pain. Carmona has not been sharp recently, and he is very vulnerable to the long ball - a very bad thing playing against Jose Bautista and the Jays. Toronto is confident and ready for this one. They are starting Jo-Jo Reyes. Reyes has a shot at some dubious history here - 29 starts without a win - but you have to discount that anomaly. Bad luck has been a real factor for him lately, and he certainly hasn't been near as bad as his record suggests. He's the better pitcher here today.

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8 Unit Play Take 981 Boston at Detroit (1 pm ET) The Red Sox are smoking hot, they have handled the Tigers easily twice already in this series, and they are starting a pitcher - Clay Buchholz - that has not lost in May and who has been almost unhittable. That's a nice situation, and it gets even better - the Tigers are sending Andy Oliver out for his first start of the season, and he has to face a wildly confident team. Detroit is in a very tough spot here. The Red Sox are 12-2 in their last 14 overall. The Tigers are 6-23 in their last 29 opening games of a double-header. Play this game as action.

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8 Unit Play Take 955 Philadelphia at Mets (7 pm ET) The Mets have won three of four. Roy Oswalt is making his third start after returning from injury. He hasn't got a win in either start, but he has only allowed one run in each game and has looked good. He has done it against good hitting teams as well - St. Louis and Texas - so he's well positioned against this Mets team. The Mets, who have lost four of five, are starting Chris Capuano. He was not sharp at all in his last start, and does not come into this game against a potentially tough lineup with a lot of confidence.

10 Unit Play Take 925 Atlanta at Los Angeles (10 pm ET) The Angels have lost five in a row and seven of eight, so they aren't in a good place right now. They also have a pitching issue tonight. Ervin Santana has not been strong in his last two outings, and I really don't trust him right now. Atlanta is playing much better than L.A. right now, and they have a much better pitcher. Tim Hudson is having a very strong year, and is pitching well in his last three. With interleague play starting teams aren't familiar with each other so you have to go with the best pitcher, and that's clear here.

Game of the Month - 10 Unit Play Take 977 Seattle (-135) at Baltimore (7 pm ET) It usually comes down to pitching, and this one is a total mismatch. Seattle starts the best pitcher in the American League. King Felix has been good all year, and very good recently. He's confident, strong on the road, and he won't be intimidated by this lineup he is facing. Baltimore's Chris Tillman has an ugly 7.15 ERA on the season, and was beyond incompetent last time out in Kansas City. He puts a lot of strain on a bullpen that isn't great because he certainly doesn't go deep. Seattle is a solid road team and Baltimore hasn't been great at home, so the Mariners are in a good spot here. The Mariners are 13-4 in Hernandez

10 Unit Play Take 971 Texas at Seattle (10 pm ET) The Rangers came through for us in a big way yesterday, so I'm going to reward them with more support today. Texas can clearly beat Seattle because they are clearly the better team. More significantly, they have a major advantage on the mound. Colby Lewis was on a three game losing streak, but he broke out of that convincingly against the A's last time out. He is a pitcher who can build on success, and I expect him to be sharp today - as he consistently was against Seattle last year. Jason Vargas hasn't been sharp in his last two games, has been inconsistent at home, and won't give his team much needed confidence in this one.

American League Game of the Year - 10 Unit Play Take 929 Texas at Seattle (10 pm ET) I have had this game circled for a couple of weeks. With every start Seattle rookie Michael Pineda makes more members of the media and the general public fall in love with him. He's undoubtedly been impressive, but he has also been on his first tour around the league. Now, for the first time, he faces a team that he has already faced, so he won't be as fresh and unique as he was. Texas already got as many hits as any team has against him this year, and has scored more runs than anyone else against him, so they aren't going to be intimidated. The fact that they are a solid hitting team doesn't hurt, either. Nor does it hurt that they have the quietly efficient C.J. Wilson on the mound. The public has given Pineda too much credit here, and I'm looking to take advantage. The Rangers are 12-4 in Wilsons last 16 starts vs. American League West. The Mariners are 18-40 in their last 58 vs. American League West. Play the visitor on Wednesday with these low odds, as we expect a blowout tonight at Safeco Field.

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10 Unit Play Take 901 San Francisco at Washington (7 pm ET) Madison Bumgarner has pitched fairly well in his last two games - very well last time out - and only has two losses to show for it. Despite that record I have no issue with backing him in this spot. Tom Gorzelanny wasn't strong the last time he faced San Francisco, and while he has put up solid numbers this year I have a hard time believing that he is going to sustain that over the long term.

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10 Unit Play Take 972 Cleveland vs. Kansas City (7 pm ET) Cleveland has cooled down a bit recently, but so have the Royals. The difference here is the quality of pitching the two teams are fielding. Josh Tomlin has been brilliant all year. His last start - also against Kansas City - was his best even if it was the only one he didn't get the decision in. He's confident and effective, and obviously comfortable against this team. Jeff Francis continues to try to return for relevance, but it hasn't been convincing so far. He has been decreasingly impressive in each of his last three starts, is giving up far too many hits, and is clearly second best here.

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10 Unit Play Take 967 Cleveland at Kansas City (8 pm ET) Josh Tomlin - Like Justin Masterson last night - has the chance to open the season 4-0. I think he will. He has pitched very well this year, and was strong in two of three outings against the Royals last year. He's up against Sean O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan didn't make the roster out of spring, and has only made one start this year. It was a five inning shutout, but I'm not buying into him at all - it was only against Seattle, and his WHIP was still an unimpressive 1.4. The Indians are far more confident right now, and are playing much better in recent games.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take 918 Kansas City vs. Seattle (8 pm ET) I really like how the Royals are playing and am looking to cash in on that momentum. The Mariners have been lousy on the road, and blew a lead yesterday so their confidence won't be high. Bruce Chen was great last time out and is more than capable of another good start against these lousy bats. Doug Fister can give up a lot of hits, and the Royals are in a position to capitalize on that right now.

10 Unit Play. #980 Take Los Angeles over Cleveland (Tuesday 7 pm MLB.tv) The Tribe have gotten off to a great start in 2011 but I just do not believe that they are good enough to be a contender in the American League Central this season. The Angels have gotten off to a so-so start this season but I like their pitcher in tonight

Game of the Month - 10 Unit Play - Take 907 Colorado at Pittsburgh (7 pm ET) Colorado opened this series with an easy win yesterday, and I look for another good win here. Colorado has won four in a row and is playing with some confidence. Pittsburgh opened by winning three of four, but they have dropped two of three since and look more like the Pirates than they probably wish they did. Jorge De La Rosa makes the start for the Rockies. He left his last game with a blister in the sixth inning, but that's not a concern this time since he was moved up a spot in the rotation here. He was very sharp before that incident, and was successful against the Pirates last year. Ross Ohlendorf answers for Pittsburgh. He was underwhelming in his last start - a WHIP of 2.00. It's hard to get too excited about him - especially against a confident Colorado team that has scored seven runs in each of their last two games.

10 Unit Play Take 922 Texas vs. Yankees (8 pm ET) In a very unlikely development the Rangers are going to the World Series, and they leave tonight. This is the second taste of a clinching game in the ALCS for them - ever - so now they finally know what to expect. They played too tight in the first one, but now they are at home in a stadium that will be insane with a favorable pitching matchup and this is their time. Phil Hughes starts for the Yankees. He was a long way from impressive the last time he faced the Rangers - seven runs in four innings. He has not been great on the road, and hasn't always bounced back well from bad performances. He is definitely vulnerable here. Colby Lewis gets a chance to be the hero for Texas. He was very solid in his first appearance, and has been generally solid all season - especially down the stretch. He is capable of doing what needs to be done. Texas has won five of seven against the Yankees in the Ballpark this year, so they know they can win, and that will carry them over the top.

3 Unit Play Take 919 Philadelphia at San Francisco (7:30 pm ET) The reasoning behind this one is about the same as the reasoning behind our big win yesterday - you have a high quality team with a ton of playoff experience backed into a corner with their best pitcher on the mound. It especially helps when that pitcher is the best in baseball. The challenge, of course, is that he and his team are playing a very talented, hot team on the road, and the Giants are also starting one of baseball's best. Still, although Halladay wasn't great last time out he has been usually brilliant, and he bounces back strong from bad outings. I believe in Roy Halladay, and despite the score in the series I believe that the Phillies are ultimately the better team, so I have no problem believing in them here.

2 Unit Play Take 912 San Francisco vs. Philadelphia (4 pm ET) The Giants are at home where they are very comfortable in a series that they now believe they can win against a pitcher they know they can perform against. That sounds attractive to me. Cole Hamels starts for Philadelphia. He has been pitching well recently, but could have problems bouncing back from his huge outing last time out like Halladay did. He faced the Giants twice this year and struggled against them both times. San Francisco starts Matt Cain. Cain has been solid against the Phillies, and was good his last time out. He's a pitcher built to pitch at home, and will be able to harness the momentum and excitement in this start.

10 Unit Play Take 977 Minnesota at Kansas City (8 pm ET) Minnesota has been frustrating recently, but their fundamentals remain strong, and Ron Gardenhire is too smart to let them coast entirely into the playoffs, so I expect a good performance here. Even though they have been losing recently their offense has been very potent at times, so they can win if they just get better pitching. They should get that here. Nick Blackburn has been very strong recently, and is pitching with real confidence. He's a streaky pitcher in terms of his performance quality, and he's on an upswing now. He's facing Sean O'Sullivan. He was solid in his last outing, but had struggled before that and really hasn't looked like a pro pitcher. He hasn't been strong at home, and had a rough outing against the Twins earlier this month.

3 Unit Play Take 979 Texas at Oakland (10 pm ET) Texas doesn't have a whole lot to play for, but they need to keep winning to stay sharp for the playoffs and a tough AL East opponent. They have a good pitching matchup here to get a win. Tommy Hunter is their starter. He has been very sharp in his last two outings - including a nice win against the Yankees. He has had one solid outing against Oakland this year, and the Rangers have beaten Oakland all four times he has started against them in his career. He's up against Bobby Cramer. Cramer is making just his third start, and his first at home. He has been solid so far, but with so little experience it's hard to trust him - especially now that opposing teams have a bit of video against major league opponents to learn from.

3 Unit Play Take 918 Cleveland vs. Kansas City (7 pm ET) Simply put, this one comes down to a serious pitching mismatch. Sean O'Sullivan starts for the Royals. He has been lousy all year, and particularly lousy in his last three. He doesn't go deep and he gets beaten up by opposing hitters. His last start was also against Cleveland, and the Indians hit him hard. He's a very hard pitcher to trust, and would be an underdog against almost any pitcher in the league right now. The pitcher he is facing, Mitch Talbot, is pitching better. He had a rough outing last time out, but he was strong in the start before that and has many more decent outings than O'Sullivan. The Royals are a very bad road team, and Cleveland has a far better bullpen right now, so this is a good spot.

Game of the Month - 10 Unit Play - Take 929 Texas at Seattle (10 pm ET) I really like and respect Felix Hernandez. If the world was fair he would win the Cy Young this year - and get to pitch for a team that doesn't suck. The world is far from fair, though, so he finds himself here in a spot he is going to struggle to win. In my eyes Texas should be the clear favorite in this one. They are as hot as any team, having won seven in a row. Seattle has lost their last seven. The Rangers have won 10 of 13 against Seattle this year, and have been successful in Seattle over the last several years. Hernandez is coming off one of his worst outings of the year last time, and he has to be frustrated. He has faced Texas three times this year and hasn't looked much like King Felix any time. This is a tough matchup for him. C.J. Wilson answers for Texas. He has been much more effective in his three outings against Seattle - two of them, including one in Seattle, have been very good. Texas has a much better offense, they have been very successful against righties all year, and they have a better bullpen. I like this play.

3 Unit Play Take 955 San Diego at St. Louis (8 pm ET) The Cardinals looks like a team that might have given up. They got swept at home by hated rivals the Cubs for the first time in forever, and they have nothing to play for. San Diego, on the other hand, still has everything to play for, and they are playing like they know it. That alone would make me look at San Diego even if I didn't like the pitching matchup as much as I do. Tim Stauffer starts for the Padres. He has had two starts recently, and he has been very good in both of them. He's pitching with a lot of confidence, and the team has confidence behind him. He's up against Jake Westbrook. He's pitched okay recently, but his last outing was very deceptive - despite only giving up two runs the seven hits and five walks in six innings led to an unacceptable WHIP. Westbrook is vulnerable to a confident offensive team, and San Diego fits that bill right now.

3 Unit Play Take 927 Minnesota at White Sox (8 pm ET) The Twins have all but clinched their playoff spot, but they haven't let up on the gas at all - they are 9-1 in their last 10. They won the opener of this series handily, and I like the pitching matchup even better here. Brian Duensing starts for the Twins. The youngster has pitched very well since joining the rotation, and is in good form recently. He faced the Twins three times last year and looked solid against them. He's up against Gavin Floyd. Floyd is coming off a rough start, and has shown signs recently of tiring out. The White Sox don't hit lefties as well as they do righties, so we don't have to expect their full offensive potential in this one.

10 Unit Play Take 979 Boston vs. Seattle (10 pm ET) The Red Sox have won two in a row on the west coast, including the opener of this series, and I look for them to continue that streak against a Seattle team that continues to struggle - they have lost five straight. Daisuke Matsuzaka starts for the Red Sox. Dice-K is coming off a very rough start, but he's reportedly healthy and he has enjoyed success against the Mariners in the past, so I like him here. He's up against Luke French. French was weak his last time out, and doesn't have the experience to prove he can stand up to an iconic team like this one. He's up against a good road team with a slumping team behind him, and he's in for a tough night.

3 Unit Play Take 913 San Diego at Colorado (8:30 pm ET) The Rockies are the hottest team in baseball, but this price warrants taking a shot at the Padres here. San Diego blew their division lead against the Giants, but Bud Black is doing a good job of managing this team, and I look for him to use the change of scenery as a motivation to get back on track. The Pads are starting Cory Luebke. He's making just his third career start, but his second against Colorado. The last start against the Rockies involved a lot of bad luck, and he has pitched well otherwise, so I don't have a lot of trouble trusting him at better than even money. He's up against Jeff Francis. Francis has been very inconsistent recently - two starts back he made Pittsburgh look far better than they have any right to look. He has struggled against San Diego this year, and the Padres hit lefties well, so he's vulnerable.

10 Unit Play Take 913 San Francisco at Arizona (9:30 pm ET) The Giants have won five of six, and with the Padres struggling so badly they smell blood in the water. They are now just a game out of first (and 1.5 games out of the wild card), and this series against an Arizona team that has little to play for and isn't playing great recently is a great spot to close the gap. They have a good pitching matchup for it here, too. Tim Lincecum has had his struggles this year, but he is looking much better lately, and is coming off a very nice start last time out. He's up against Enright. Enright has very good stats, but I'm not scared by him. San Francisco has seen him just 11 days ago, and young pitchers aren't always as effective the second time they see a team. He also gave up a whole lot of hits (9) in his last outing, so he's vulnerable if an opponent has some luck.

10 Unit Play Take 966 San Francisco vs. Colorado (10 pm ET) Both of these pitchers are coming off of horrific outings. The difference is that ours is a good pitcher who had a bad day, while theirs is an underwhelming pitcher who didn't quite meet expectations. Esmil Rogers starts for the Rockies. He was really awful against Atlanta last time out, but had been hard to trust before that. He's a part-time starter, and he has struggled to find a rhythm this year - especially on the road. He's up against Madison Bumgarner. He was terrible against Cincinnati last time, too, but was very solid in two games before that. He's a generally better pitcher than Rogers, he has a more reliable offense behind him in this scenario, and he's in a good spot here.

3 Unit Play Take 925 Angels at Seattle (10 pm ET) Neither of these teams has been great recently, but one of them has to win, and there's a better than average chance it will be the Angels. Ervin Santana heads to the mound for Anaheim. He had a rough start last time out, but has generally been pitching well and that start was against Tampa Bay, so I will give him a mulligan and trust him here. He's up against David Pauley. He's not an experienced pitcher and his last few starts have been flat. He's certainly vulnerable. The Angels are 10-3 in this series this year so they certainly have an edge when the teams meet.

10 Unit Play. Take 964 San Diego vs. Philadelphia (10 pm ET) The Phillies are hurting. They were just swept in a four game series at home - by Houston of all teams - and now they have to head across the country to play six games against tough opponents. San Diego has won eight of 11, and is very good at home. It's a good matchup. Roy Oswalt starts for the Phillies. He has been good since his trade, but he has faced reasonably easy competition at home. Now he has to go on the road against a tough team with the guys behind him lacking confidence. It might not be his day. He's up against young phenom Mat Latos. Latos has been brilliant all year, and is pitching at home for the first time in a long time. You can tell he is in form because his last three starts have been on the road and have been brilliant. He has been very effective, and will definitely challenge this Philadelphia team.

3 Unit Play Take 951 Atlanta at Colorado (3 pm ET) The Braves have lost the first two in this series, but I just can't imagine them getting swept, and they have the clear advantage on the mound, so this is a nice spot. Jair Jurrjens starts for the Braves. He has been pitching extremely well in his last three and clearly seems to be over his earlier problems. He has done well against Colorado in the past, and can be trusted here. He's up against Esmil Rogers. Rogers was solid last time out, but that was an exception recently. He gives up a lot of hits and runs, isn't an experienced starter (most of his action has been from the bullpen this year), and was notably ineffective at home in his only start there. This is a tough spot for a pitcher who can't be brimming with confidence.

10 Unit Play Take 908 Mets vs. Florida (7 pm ET) Despite all of their struggles this year the Mets are a surprisingly good home team. We are getting a good price here because they have to beat Florida's ace. I think they can. For starters, Josh Johnson isn

9 Unit Play Take 926 Minnesota vs. Angels (8 pm ET) With the exception of their last games, Minnesota is red hot, and the Angels aren't. I like the Twins at home a lot - they are 38-21 in the new stadium. I don't like the Angels traveling nearly as much, and I don't really like their motivation right now, either. Minnesota starts Brian Duensing. The youngster has been extremely good since making his debut, and is coming off his best start of his career. He went a complete game, but he had an extra day of rest to recover, so I'm not too concerned. He's very confident, and he's facing a team that doesn't love lefties. Dan Haren answers for the Angels. Two of his last three starts have been underwhelming, and I haven't generally been impressed with him in the AL. He is giving up far too many hits, and that's not good against a team with swagger like the Twins.

3 Unit Play Take 980 Oakland vs. Toronto (10 pm ET) The Jays are playing well right now, but this play is mostly because of the pitching. Toronto's Brandon Morrow is coming off a masterful outing - a near no-hitter that was lost with two out in the ninth against Tampa Bay in which he struck out 17. It was brilliant, but it wasn't at all consistent with his recent form. He also hasn't been pitching very deep, so that game exacted far more of a physical and mental toll than most games of his do. He's now coming back off of slightly extended rest - that last start was August 8 - so there is a good chance that he won't be at his best. He has also been a lousy road pitcher this year. Dallas Braden takes the mound for Oakland. He's pitching very well as well, and is comfortable pitching at home. He's also a lefty, and Toronto has a very hard time against lefties. Braden is the far easier pitcher to trust in this one.

10 Unit Play Take 901 Florida at Pittsburgh (7 pm ET) There are two things about this game that stand out because they are such clear signs of how bad the Pirates really are - they have a losing record at home, and they hit very poorly against right-handed pitchers. Good teams do neither. The Pirates have lost seven straight, and six have been by multiple runs, so a loss here certainly isn't out of the question - against a Florida team that is decent on the road. Chris Volstad starts for Florida. He has been giving up too many hits recently, but that will be less of a problem against this offense. Beyond that his control has been solid, and he has a decent bullpen behind him. James McDonald starts for the Pirates. He's making just his fourth start of the year, and only one of those has been particularly impressive. Florida hits fairly well, so he's hard to trust.

3 Unit Play Take 976 Minnesota vs Oakland (2 pm ET) The Twins won for us yesterday and we're going to jump right back on them today because the fundamentals are the same and I like this pitching matchup even more. Kevin Slowey starts for the Twins. I really like how he is pitching right now - he had some bad luck on the road at Tampa Bay last time out that made his stat line look much worse than it was, and he was very strong the two games before that against teams that struggle to hit like Oakland does. He has been strong at home all year, and though he hasn't faced Oakland for a couple of years he will have the confidence of always having pitched very well against them going for him. He's up against Vin Mazzaro. Mazzaro's last two road starts haven't been particularly solid, and his last two starts overall have been against much worse offensive teams than Minnesota. Minnesota's offense is statistical similar to Texas in several ways, and the Rangers smoked Mazzaro three starts back.

3 Unit Play Take 971 Oakland at Seattle (3:30 pm ET) Seattle has won the first two in this series, and is undefeated under new management, but they haven't been dominant enough that I am afraid to go against them. They are starting Dallas Braden. He has been solid recently, and is coming off a decent outing against a tough Texas team. His control has been strong, and he travels reasonably well. He's up against Luke French. French has only made six starts, and hasn't been consistent. His last outing was good, but he was vulnerable in the two before that. I have far more faith in Braden's ability to handle a very early afternoon start like this than French's because Braden has been around that much more.

3 Unit Play Take 911 Arizona at Milwaukee (8 pm ET) The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last 11, including three of four on the road, and are quietly playing some pretty good baseball after making their changes. They are starting Barry Enright. He has been remarkably consistent recently - six innings and two runs in each of his last three. He has pitched on the road twice this year and has been very comfortable both times. Enright is up against Manny Parra. Parra has been very lousy in his last two, and neither has come against particularly good offensive teams. He has not pitched well all year, and has been not particularly better at home than on the road.

3 Unit Play Take 915 San Diego at Dodgers (10 pm ET) This four game series with the Dodgers is a chance for the Padres to really step on their rivals' necks and end L.A.'s playoff hopes once and for all. They have split the first two, though, so they need to win the last two to do that. They are well poised to get one here. San Diego starts Wade LeBlanc. He has been solid recently, and had some bad luck contribute to some less than perfect numbers against the Marlins last time out. The Dodgers start Vicente Padilla. He has put up good numbers recently, but I am very suspicious - he was pulled after four innings last time out in a game that was still competitive when he was pitching well, so I'm not totally convinced that all is well. That game was also against the Padres, and I am not a fan of pitchers having to face a team two starts in a row - familiarity is not a good thing for pitchers. The Dodgers have struggled against lefties and they have the weaker bullpen. San Diego is a very solid road team.

10 Unit Play Take 951 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7 pm ET) Cincinnati won the opener yesterday and has won five of six, so they are in form. Pittsburgh has dropped five straight, and four have been by multiple runs. They aren't in any form at all. The Reds are a solid road team with a large offensive advantage. Mike Leake starts for the Reds. He hasn't been quite as sharp recently as he was earlier, but he's still controlling the ball well, and this is a good roster for him to find his mojo against. He has already faced Pittsburgh twice in his short career and has enjoyed success. Paul Maholm responds for the Pirates. His last two starts have been disastrous, and he has to have been distracted and negatively affected by all of the trade talk that still swirls around him.

4 Unit Play take #704 Atlanta over Ny Mets (7:10pm est)- There is probably no better combination then getting the Braves at home against the Mets. Atlanta comes in with a Major League best 34-13 mark at home and have been able to put up the overall 3rd best record in the National League this year despite having played the fewest amount of home games of anyone this season in baseball. The Mets on the other hand have the worst road record of any above .500 team on the year. So all this adds up to the perfect home field advantage in this game. Most people just see this game as the Mets and the Braves but you have to take into consideration that this instead is the Mets on the road versus the home Braves and together this can be a winning combination if you put it in your favor. The Braves have been able to go 22-7 as a home favorite in this price range while the Mets are just 10-25 on the road as a underdog in this range and when you add those two numbers up, the Braves being in this type spot has resulted in them winning or the Mets being in this spot has them losing, an incredible 73% of the time.
We can keep digging up even more stats here but the fact is the Mets are an awful road team and are not getting any better having went just 1-6 in their last 7 and are 1-7 against a right-handed starter on the road. The Braves on the other hand have come back off a loss this year to go 20-8 and as we have stated many times before that getting a game 1 home team off a series ending road loss has been extremely profitable for MLB bettors over the years. This will be a focused Braves bunch coming into this game as they badly need a win having dropped 3 straight series.
The match-up is Johan Santana and Tim Hudson and the always steady Hudson comes in with a nice size edge here. He has thrown a quality start in 17 of 21 of his starts, shows an ERA of 2.31 at home and goes up against a Mets team who is hitting just .239 against right-handers on the road this season. Santana is a pitcher we have went against quite a bit this year. He seems to be going downhill of late and that was most obvious in his last start against the Cardinals where he gave up 13 hits in less then 6 innings of work with 7 runs allowed before being knocked out of the game.
The Mets offensive troubles have been starting to show of late on the road and even at home as they have been towards the bottom in hitting the last two months now and have an on-base average ranking them last in the National League the last 20 games they have played.
Great value here for a team that plays better at home then anyone in the league going up against an overall struggling group like the Mets.
Take the Atlanta Braves in this one.

10 Unit Play. #956 Take New York over Arizona (Friday 7:10 pm MLB.tv) Game of the Month. The Mets got back on track since a dismal west coast road trip and won two of three games from the Cardinals. They actually had a chance for the sweep but lost on Wednesday in 13 innings to the Cardinals despite having their ace Johan Santana on the mound. Tonight they will start Mike Pelfrey, who has not been as sharp lately but did pitch decent in his last start going five innings and allowing just two runs against the Dodgers. He will be looking to make amends since he was pounded by Arizona early last week in the desert. The Mets are 32-17 at Citi Field and the Diamondbacks are just 13-35 on the road. Ian Kennedy will face the Mets and he was pounded hard in his last start going just over six innings and allowing four earned runs. Since May 20th, he has recorded just two wins on the season compared to six losses. Arizona has no bullpen and expect the Mets to attack that once Kennedy gets taken out of the game. Arizona is just 2-7 in their last nine games against a right handed starter. The Mets are 8-3 in Mike Pelfrey

3 Unit Play Take 903 Atlanta at Washington (7 pm ET) This is a battle of this year's phenom against last year's. Tommy Hanson was truly special last year for the Braves, and he has been pretty good again this year. He is pitching solidly recently and can be trusted. Stephen Strasburg answers for the Nationals. Strasburg has been very solid this year, and is in good form right now. The worst start of his short career has come against the Braves, though, and this is the first time that a team has seen him twice. There's a good chance that the Braves will be ready. Atlanta's offense is working very well right now, while the Nationals have only won two of their last nine games. With virtually any other pitching combination the Braves would be favored.

10 Unit Play Take 958 San Francisco vs. Florida (10 pm ET) The Giants are playing fantastic baseball - they return home after winning six of seven division road games. That one loss was started by Barry Zito - today's starter - but he was very strong in the loss and just didn't get run support. After a rough patch Zito has been brilliant in each of his last three, and is in a good place. He has owned the Marlins over the last two years. Ricky Nolasco answers for the Marlins. He's been solid recently, but not as sharp as Zito, and he hasn't had as much success against the Giants as Zito has against his team. San Francisco is very strong at home, and strong against righties, and they have a clear bullpen edge.

3 Unit Play Take 907 Cincinnati at Houston (2 pm ET) The Reds are looking to finish off the sweep in this series, and I am confident that they can pull it off. The young Mike Leake starts for the Reds. He was very good in his last start, and has been solid on the road all year. He has seen Houston twice this year already and has been very successful in those efforts, so he's in a good spot here. He's up against Wandy Rodriguez. Rodriguez wasn't impressive in his last start, and was absolutely brutal the last time Cincinnati saw him. The Reds will have real confidence facing him. Cincinnati has a big edge offensively, and a bullpen edge as well. This is a good spot.

3 Unit Play Take 971 Minnesota at Baltimore (7 pm ET) The Orioles have won just twice in their current eight game home stand, so home field is hardly an advantage for them. They send out Brian Matusz to start, and that's not a reason to be confident. The young guy has talent, but he's not showing it recently. His control has been spotty, and he hasn't lasted past the third inning in his last two starts. That puts the burden on the bullpen. While there are definitely worse bullpens than Baltimore's, there are also better. Scott Baker answers for Minnesota. He hasn't had a great start the last two times out, but he was much better before that, and he'll enter this game with a lot of confidence because he has owned Baltimore every time he has faced them in recent years. He has a very good bullpen behind him as well.

3 Unit Play Take 927 White Sox at Oakland (10 pm ET) Oakland is playing well recently, but the White Sox should be favored here. Chicago is starting Mark Buehrle. He has found his form recently - he's going deep, not giving up a lot of runs, and limiting walks. He's comfortable to trust here. Trevor Cahill answers for Oakland. I'm a big fan of how Cahill has pitched this year, but he seems to have hit a rough patch recently. Two of his last three starts have been pretty rough, and that can't be a big surprise given his youth and lack of experience. Chicago saw him three times last year with a fair bit of success, so they will be comfortable against him. It's a good matchup for Chicago. Chicago is a decent road team with a good road bullpen, so they are well suited to pull off a win.

10 Unit Play Take 905 San Diego at Pittsburgh (7 pm ET) Both of these teams come into this game off a win, and both were playing pretty well before that. I'll back the class every time, though, and the class here is definitely San Diego. They are a solid road team - 25-20 - and are very strong against left handers like they face today. Pittsburgh is just adequate at home and lousy against righties. San Diego starts Kevin Correia. He's not as consistent as I would like, but his control has been good recently, and he should have a good day against the limp bats of the Pirates. Paul Maholm starts for Pittsburgh. He's coming off a complete game last time out. That's far more than he is used to pitching, so I expect him to lack sharpness as a result.

10 Unit Play Take 961 San Francisco at Arizona (9:30 pm ET) The Giants have won seven of nine and are in very good form. Finally. Arizona is just coming off an unexpected sweep of the Mets, but that doesn't indicate how they have generally been playing recently. Matt Cain starts for the Giants. He hasn't been at his best recently, but I was impressed with his first outing since the break, and I think the rest was what he needed. His last outing against Arizona was brilliant. Rodrigo Lopez counters for Arizona. He has not been impressive all season and recently, and has not had success against the Giants. He's averaging less than six innings per start, and that puts the game into the hands of the bullpen for a long time - a very good thing for us.

10 Unit Play Take 912 St. Louis vs. Philadelphia (8 pm ET) The Phillies are not playing great right now, their rotation is in disarray, and trade rumors are swirling around them - they are a distracted squad that has lost five of six. St. Louis, on the other hand, has won seven straight including the first two in this series, and they look great. On top of that, this is a pitching mismatch. Young Jaime Garcia has been brilliant for St. Louis, and continues to be in solid form - especially at home. He has pitched against Philly once this year and looked good doing it. Joe Blanton answers for Philly. He has been vulnerable recently and all year, had a rough outing against St. Louis last time he faced them, and is not good on the road. St. Louis is extremely tough at home, and Philadelphia doesn't travel well.

10 Unit Play Take 913 San Francisco at Dodgers (10 pm ET) The Giants have won nine of their last 11 and are finally playing like the team they should be. They play a crucial divisional series against a Dodgers team that was just swept in a four game series against the Cardinals. Madison Bumgarner starts for the Giants. The young phenom has been very good in his last two starts and is clearly settling into his new role in the majors. His last three starts have been on the road, so the location won

10 Unit Play. #946 Take American League over National League (Tuesday 8:30 pm Fox) If it ain

10 Unit Play Take 966 Dodgers vs. Cubs (8 pm ET) This is an interesting matchup. We have two veteran pitchers - Carlos Silva for the Cubs and Vicente Padilla for the Dodgers - who have both been around for a while, but it has been several years since either has seen their opponents. Padilla is pitching extremely well in his last three - his WHIP is just 0.822. He

3 Unit Play Take 919 Minnesota at Detroit (4 pm ET) The Twins haven't been great recently, but this is a good spot for them to find themselves. Both of these pitchers - Nick Blackburn for the Twins and Jeremy Bonderman for the Tigers - are facing their opponents for the second time in less than two weeks. Both allowed four runs. The difference is that given how Bonderman was pitching he was lucky to escape with just four runs, while Blackburn experienced a fair bit of bad luck in his effort. I have not been impressed with Bonderman in his last two starts, and am not convinced hes in a good place right now. Minnesota is a competent road team, and the Tigers haven't been great against righties.

10 Unit Play Take 951 San Francisco at Washington (7 pm ET) It's time to bet against Stephen Strasburg again. The Giants are playing with the most confidence they have in a long while after sweeping the Brewers in a four game series. Their bats are working, and they have swagger. Strasburg hasn't been as sharp in his last couple of outings as he was to start, and sooner or later he is inevitably going to have a rough day. Washington has been winning close games and losing by wide margins, and in both cases they have been giving up too many runs. Matt Cain has lacked consistency, but he's pitching better recently, and has enjoyed pitching against the Nationals in the past. I don't believe that San Francisco would be an underdog like this against a lot of pitchers, so I'm not convinced that they should be against Strasburg.

10 Unit Play Take 916 White Sox vs. Angels (2 pm ET) These teams are on opposite paths right now - Chicago has won five of six, while the Angels have dropped five of six. Add that streak to the fact that the White Sox have won three of five against the Angels this year and a favorable pitching matchup and you have a playable game. John Danks is starting for the White Sox. He has pitched well at home against the American League all year, and is coming off a strong outing against a Texas team that certainly hits well. He's in solid form. Ervin Santana goes for the Angels. He hasn't been as sharp as he needs to be in his last three, and he's giving up too many hits - a problem when you face a team with as much confidence as the White Sox have right now.

9 Unit Play Take 961 St. Louis at Colorado (8:30 pm ET) The Cardinals are coming off an incredible ninth inning collapse yesterday. I'm too worried about it, though. They didn't burn up a lot of pitchers in the ninth, and they are a tough, well coached team who can shake off something like this. What I am focusing on more is the fact that they were way ahead heading into the ninth and were looking good. Today they have a nice pitching matchup. They are starting Jaime Garcia. He's coming off a nice outing, and has been mostly solid all year. He has been stellar on the road against the NL, and he's facing the Rockies for the first time, so they won't know what to expect from him. Aaron Cook starts for the Rockies. He's been fine recently, but is far from unhittable, and the Cards are hitting with confidence right now, so they could have a good day.

10 Unit Play Take 929 Kansas City at Seattle (10 pm ET) This pitching matchup was going to be very interesting, but Erik Bedard was pulled out from his first start in a year this morning with shoulder stiffness. There's still an opportunity, though. Zack Greinke is starting for the Royals. It's hard to say that he is pitching well right now given that he is coming off a six run game last time out, but he really is. He was very sharp in that game, but was left in too long and had a terrible eighth inning. Up until then he looked great, and he has been solid in his two games before that. He's still not what he was last year, but he's certainly better than he was early in the year. He's now up against Ryan Rowland-Smith. It's hard to believe that he will be prepared or focused for this start since up until earlier today or maybe late last night he thought he had been demoted to the bullpen. He has been wildly inconsistent all year, and was beaten up by Kansas City once already this year. The Royals have won 8 of 11 and have a real swagger right now. They have an offensive edge, and Seattle is far from the scariest home team in the league.

10 Unit Play Take 913 Dodgers at Arizona (9:30 pm ET) This is Edwin Jackson's first game back after his bizarre no-hitter (eight walks!), and I have little faith that it is going to go well. He's not a consistent pitcher at all, and his control hasn't been great recently. He also threw a whole pile of pitches last time out - more than he is used to - so he may not be sharp, and he likely won't go deep. That means he'll put strain on the Arizona bullpen, and that's far from a good idea. The Dodgers are starting Hiroki Kuroda. He's been consistent and solid all year, and is surprisingly strong on the road. He has had two strong outings against the Dodgers this year, and I expect another one. The Dodgers just swept the tough Giants, and are well positioned here.

3 Unit Play Take 967 Oakland at Baltimore (7 pm ET) I'd love to play on the Toronto game but it starts too early, so we'll celebrate Canada Day by just making a play on this game. This is the rubber match in this series, and it tilts solidly in Oakland's favor. They are starting the very impressive young Trevor Cahill. He is coming off an exceptional start, and has been strong in his last two. He's been strong all year, actually. Baltimore struggles against righties and has struggled against Cahill in the past, so they are in a tough spot. They would need their pitcher to have a big day in this one, and that possibility is not easy to believe in right not. Jake Arrieta is not pitching well right now. He has been really lousy in his last two starts, and lousy in both of his home starts. He's a young pitcher lacking a whole lot of confidence, and that's bad news when his team doesn't generally have the offensive punch to help him out, and is facing a hot pitcher.

3 Unit Play Take 924 Yankees vs Seattle (7 pm ET) The Mariners got a big win yesterday behind Cliff Lee's third straight complete game. I look for the Yankees to return things to a more logical order here. Seattle is a really lousy road team - 12-26 - while the Yankees are a very strong home team at 25-11. We get a good price here for the Yankees at home in such a situation because the mariners are starting Felix Hernandez. The ace has pitched well recently, but he hasn't been entirely consistent this year, has had his share of troubles against the Yankees, and the team has lost five of his eight road starts. He's up against Javier Vazquez. He has pitched well recently - especially at home.

10 Unit Play Take 910 San Diego vs Colorado (3:30 pm ET) The Padres let us down yesterday, but I'm willing to give them a shot at redemption here because the fundamentals are still on their side. Clayton Richard is starting for the home team. He is coming off a very good outing, and has been generally strong all year. This is his third start of the year against the Rockies, and he has looked good in the past. He's up against Jeff Francis. Francis has been decent since his return from injury, but he hasn't been overwhelming, and he's giving up too many hits. San Diego has a solid bullpen edge, and they hit better against lefties than righties.

8 Unit Play Take 964 San Diego vs. Colorado (10 pm ET) San Diego lost to the Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez last night, so they will be looking for revenge here. They are well positioned to get it here. They are starting Wade LeBlanc. He has been solid this year, and particularly strong at home. He's against Jason Hammel. After two strong starts Hammel was vulnerable and hit hard by Boston last time out. He's been very weak on the road this year, and he's in a tough park for pitchers who aren't used to it. Hammel has already faced San Diego once this year, and the Padres had a good day against him. The Padres have a bit of an edge in offense and a solid edge in the bullpen.

9 Unit Play Take 906 Atlanta vs. Washington (7 pm ET) This is the spot where I am going to take my first stand against Stephen Strasburg. I'm more than impressed with what he has done so far, but this price is too good to avoid. For starters, the kid is young and inexperienced, and teams have now seen him four times in the majors, so sooner or later he's inevitably going to have an off night. That off night could certainly come against the best all-round offense he has faced so far. Atlanta is particularly well set up to perform against left-handers. He looked vulnerable at times last outing against the Royals as well - nine hits in seven innings. He has only pitched once on the road, so this is going to be a challenge for him - Atlanta is a tough place to play. Washington is playing lousy baseball right now, and are far from strong on the road, while Atlanta, at 26-8, is as good as it gets at home. Tim Hudson has been good this year, and particularly strong at home.

10 Unit Play Take 920 Cincinnati vs. Cleveland (7 pm ET) On the surface this is a pretty easy picture to paint - Cleveland has lost six in a row and has an anemic offense. Cincinnati is a division leader that has won four straight thanks to a pretty solid offense - one that scored ten runs against Cleveland yesterday. These teams share a state, but don't have much else in common - certainly not competence. Sam Lecure starts for the Reds. He hasn't been their best pitcher, but he has been solid at home, and has had solid success recently. He's not my first choice, but he's in a solid position against a struggling position here. Justin Masterson goes for the Indians. This price is as high as it is in large part because Masterson was brilliant against Boston three back - a two hit complete game shutout. Sine then, though, he has been torched by the Mets and hasn't been as strong against the Pirates as he should have been. He's not a strong road pitcher, and is solid to play against here.

3 Unit Play Take 975 Colorado at Angels (10 pm ET) Both of these teams are coming off frustrating losses late last night, so both will be hungry to correct their course here. Before those losses each team had won five of six, so both are moving in the right direction. Colorado has done very well against right handed pitchers this year compared to lefties when it comes to offensive production, and has a clear bullpen edge here, so they are in a good spot here. I also like pitching matchup. Colorado starts Jeff Francis. The lefty has been solid since his return from injury, and is enjoying strong control. I expect a solid outing. Jered Weaver starts for the Angels. Weaver was strong last time out, but he has struggled to string together consecutive good games, and I feel like he is hard to trust here. Colorado has the pitching edge.

10 Unit Play Take 913 Florida at Baltimore (7 pm ET) The Marlins played yesterday like a team that wasn't at all sad to see their manager gone. It doesn't hurt that they were playing the Orioles as they are tonight. There's a good chance that they will continue to pound out the offense - especially since they are facing a lousy pitcher. Kevin Millwood was solid against San Diego last time, but that certainly hasn't been the tendency for him recently. He has been mostly horrible, and it's safer to assume he will be underwhelming than solid here - especially against a team that has scored 36 runs in their last five games. Florida answers with Nate Robertson. He had his best outing in a while last time out against Tampa Bay, and will be looking to build on that confidence against a weak hitting team here. Florida has the edge on the mound, offensively, and in the bullpen. That's the big three.

10 Unit Play Take 903 St. Louis at Toronto (7 pm ET) This is a game with a couple of nice young pitchers pitching for a couple of teams that are playing well. It should be a good one. One thing we have learned about St. Louis starter Jaime Garcia this year is that he is dirty - especially the first time a team sees him. Toronto obviously hasn't seen him before, and that's going to be tough for them. He's throwing well right now, and Toronto hasn't done well against lefties at all. Brett Cecil starts for Toronto. I think he has a pile of upside, but he's coming off a rough game, and he hasn't been as sharp at home as on the road for some reason. He's the second best pitcher in this one.

10 Unit Play Take 959 White Sox at Pittsburgh (7 pm ET) We've won on the White Sox two days in a row, and I don't see a reason to stop yet. Pittsburgh has now lost 10 in a row, they still can't score, and they have given the White Sox tremendous confidence in this series. Ross Ohlendorf starts for Pittsburgh. He was lousy last time out, hasn't been strong at home, and is definitely vulnerable against a Chicago team that is certainly comfortable right now. Jake Peavy starts for the White Sox. His last two starts have been virtually identical, and both were very nice. He's pitching the best he has all year, and there's no reason to believe that that won't continue against a team that just can't hit right now (and by right now I mean the last 15 years).

10 Unit Play Take 953 Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh (7 pm ET) The Pirates are in the midst of a pathetic eight game winning streak, so betting against them isn't hard to do right now. Five of those eight games have been lost by multiple runs. Their pitching isn't going to help them out here, either. They are giving Brad Lincoln his second career start. He made his debut last week against the Nationals, and allowed five runs in six unimpressive innings. He' vulnerable to a confident team, and the White Sox are definitely that after having won four of five including two against the hated Cubs. They are starting Freddy Garcia. He has quietly been very good in his last three, and there is good reason to believe that that consistency can carry on against an impotent offensive team here.

10 Unit Play Take 976 San Diego vs. Seattle (10 pm ET) Seattle has just one win in their last seven, and were absolutely smoked by the Rangers three nights in a row. San Diego, on the other hand, has won seven of their last 12, and will be happy to return home, where they are a strong 18-12, after a tough seven game eastern trip. Kevin Correia starts for the Padres. He has struggled in his last two, and that's a big reason why we get a price this nice. His control has been decent in those two outings, though, and he was strong in six shutout innings against St. Louis before that, so he could have a nice outing here - especially against a team that is really struggling at the plate. Jason Vargas goes for the Mariners. He hasn't allowed a lot of runs in his last three, but he's giving up a lot of hits and has been lucky recently. San Diego has a big edge in the bullpen, a significant offensive edge, and is facing a team that is really struggling on the road. This is a good spot for them.

10 Unit Play Take 913 Atlanta at Arizona (9:30 pm ET) The Braves have faltered a bit recently on the road, but they are still fresh from being absolutely scorching hot, and are still playing well enough to rediscover their winning ways. Kris Medlen starts for the Braves. He has been consistently solid recently, and has pitched particularly well on the road. He's up against Edwin Jackson. He's put up nice numbers on the road in his last two, but luck has played a solid role in those wins, and I expect that to change. He's also pitched several more innings than normal in his last three - including a complete game last time - so I expect fatigue to be an issue for him. Atlanta will be hungry to get themselves back on track before their losses have an impact, and they are in a good spot to do so here.