Sports Picks & Predictions

10-unit Play Take #913 Chicago White Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) Mark Buehrle goes up against his former team as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Chicago White Sox tonight. Buehrle has had a really tough time in his first couple of starts with the Jays, getting torched in both of his outings against the Indians and Tigers. The White Sox also have a lineup that does well against left-handers, which will make it even tougher on the veteran. The Jays are in some trouble right now and are feeling the pressure at 5-7 to begin the season. Expectations were really high for this club after all of the acquisitions they made in the offseason. But they've had some tough breaks losing Brett Lawrie to injury in the spring and now Jose Reyes, who could miss as much as three months. Those are two key pieces to this Toronto lineup and they don't have the depth to compensate for it. The White Sox send out one of the more dependable starters in the league in Gavin Floyd. He hasn't had a great start to the 2013 campaign, but his 5.56 ERA is deceiving because he's actually had a really nice K/BB ratio and is inducing more groundballs than ever. That tells me that he's pitching well and just not catching that many breaks. He's the better starting pitcher today and I like the White Sox to win this one behind him.

10-unit Play Take #972 Boston Red Sox over Baltimore Orioles (7:10pm ET) We've been riding the Boston Red Sox pretty hard this season and are 3-for-3 so far. I still think that the betting markets are underrating just how much this team has improved over last year when they won only 69 games. There bullpen is definitely better after making some key additions in the offseason, and adding Ryan Dempster in the starting rotation is a plus as well. Dempster is a gamer who always puts up better numbers than what his stuff looks like in person. Anyone who can win more games than he loses pitching for the Cubs definitely has my respect. Today he'll go up against the Jake Arrieta and the Baltimore Orioles. Arrieta is a young up-and-coming pitcher that has good stuff, but he still has a lot to learn at the big league level. In 24 games last season he posted a 6.20 ERA and had a propensity for giving up the long ball. He certainly has better stuff than his ERA indicates, but he's still a below average pitcher at the moment and is a guy that a balanced Red Sox lineup should take advantage of. I think the Orioles are also getting a little too much credit as a team based on what they did last year. They're going to struggle to win anywhere near the 93 games they won in 2012, and I'm projecting them for the basement in the AL East. Take the Red Sox at home at a good price that you won't see for long.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm ET) The New York Yankees are a beleaguered squad right now with half of their everyday lineup on the disabled list and very few good options on the bench to plug in. However, if there's a team out there that can face the pressure of having to perform without all of their weapons, it's the Yankees. This is where playing in New York actually works to your advantage. No one is expecting much from this team right now and they have the chance to prove everyone wrong. They have a guy on the mound that knows something about winning under desperate circumstances and that's Andy Pettitte. The 40-year old left-hander can still pitch as he posted some of his best numbers in half a season last year. He was sharp in his 2013 debut and he still has good enough stuff to win close to 20 games if he stays healthy. He'll get a Cleveland Indians lineup full of left-handed bats, which should make it even easier on him in this one. I like what the Indians did in the offseason, but they are going to have a tough time of it today. Their starter Carlos Carrasco is making his first start in two seasons after he had Tommy John surgery. He looked pretty good in the spring but you can expect plenty of nerves today as he hasn't pitched since September 2011. The Yankees offense isn't spectacular with all of the injuries, but they showed that they can still mash scoring 11 runs against Cleveland yesterday. I like the Yankees to beat up on the Tribe again today.

10-unit Play Take #961 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (8:10pm ET) The Colorado Rockies have an awful starting rotation this season. But no matter how bad it gets, resurrecting Jon Garland from the dead just doesn't seem like a wise decision. Garland has only made nine starts since the end of the 2010 season as he's battled injuries and ineffectiveness. I give him credit for trying to make a comeback and persevering, but he picked the wrong place to make it happen. Garland is a fly ball pitcher that pitches to contact. Those are two qualities that don't translate well in Coors Field - the site of his 2013 debut. It could get really ugly for the veteran, so the Colorado bullpen better be ready. Pitching for San Diego is former A's starter Tyson Ross. He had a very tough year in 2012 with Oakland, but a lot of that to do with an abnormally high BABIP and strand rate. He's a groundball pitcher and that should suit him well today. We should see plenty of runs in today's contest, but I like the Padres to score more of them. Take San Diego in this spot.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #959 Detroit Tigers over Minnesota Twins (1:10pm ET) There weren't many starting pitchers who threw better than Rick Porcello did during Spring Training. The 24-year old righty went 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, in addition to posting 21 strikeouts and no walks. That's pretty impressive and this could be the year that Porcello finally breaks through and realizes his potential. He was one of Detroit's most highly touted prospects when he broke into the big leagues, and this will be his fifth season. He'll go up against a weak-hitting Minnesota Twins lineup today. Last year the Twins were 10th in the American League in runs scored - and that was with Denard Span and Ben Revere, who have both departed. I like the fact that Porcello gets an easier lineup to deal with in his 2013 debut, as it could be a huge confidence builder for him. Even if Porcello runs into some trouble, he is backed by one of the best offenses in all of baseball. Returning from injury is Victor Martinez, who didn't play a single inning last season for the Tigers. He's an offensive machine and slots in right behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Detroit also added outfielder Torii Hunter, who had one of his best seasons last year. New addition Mike Pelfrey will be tasked with trying to slow down the Tigers lineup. The right-hander is returning from reconstructive elbow surgery last year, so there's no telling if his arm strength is going to be up to snuff or not. Even if it is, Pelfrey comes over from the National League where posted a career 4.36 ERA in eight seasons with the Mets. Coming to the American League won't be any easier, and he's going to get a nice welcome by the Tigers today. Take Detroit in what has the makings of a blowout.

10-unit Play Take #908 Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies (7:10pm ET) We keep a list of pitchers to fade based on the Spring Training results, and Roy Halladay tops the list for 2013. The 35-year old right-hander posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in six spring games against major leaguers. He also walked nine batters in 16.3 innings of work and his velocity was down 4-5 mph. There was absolutely nothing positive about Halladay's spring and it would be difficult to imagine that he can just flip the switch for the regular season. And to add even more of a challenge for Roy, he'll go up against his nemesis the Atlanta Braves today. Over the last three seasons, Halladay is only 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA against the Braves - his second worst mark in the National League in that time frame.
The Braves will counter with left-hander Paul Maholm today. The 30-year old came over from the Cubs last season in a trade and fit in very well with Atlanta. Maholm put up sensational numbers in the spring going 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven starts. Many pitchers have come to the Braves from other teams and turned into studs, and I think Maholm can do the same. The Phillies don't hit southpaws very well, and there's a chance that Ryan Howard may not be in the lineup with a lefty taking the hill. If Maholm can get this game into the 7th inning, the Braves should have no problem finishing the game off with the best bullpen in the league. Craig Kimbrel is as close to automatic as you can get, and he has several quality setup men in front of him. This price seems much to low given Halladay's struggles, so we'll take Atlanta at home today as our 10 unit game.

10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST) A day off. Sometimes that's all a team needs to regroup and clear their minds. Down 3-0 in the series, the New York Yankees could use definitely use any kind of break to thwart the momentum of the Detroit Tigers. Yesterday's rain out may have provided that as the teams showed up to the park to find out that the game was postponed until Thursday. If you're the Yankees, you have the guy you want on the mound in CC Sabathia. He's been the horse for this team for years and has been pitching well of late. Over his last five starts (including two in the postseason), Sabathia is 4-0 with a 1.51 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is 44-7. It certainly doesn't get much better than that. He'll also go up against a Tigers team that really struggles against left-handed pitching, making Sabathia even more comfortable on the mound.
On the other side will be right-hander Max Scherzer for the Tigers. The 28-year old enjoyed his best season to date but it didn't end the way that he wanted. Scherzer suffered from weakness in his pitching shoulder down the stretch and also injured his ankle during a postgame celebration. He wasn't the same after he came back. His velocity was down several miles per hour on his fastball and he couldn't go deep into the game. The Tigers are reporting that he is fine now, but I'd be surprised if he can go more than six innings today. That means we'll get a heavy dose of a Tigers bullpen that hasn't exactly been reliable this postseason. There's no longer very much pressure on the Yankees in this series as almost everyone has penciled the Tigers into the World Series. They should play better as a result and get a win this afternoon. Take the Yankees at a small price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #941 St. Louis Cardinals over Washington Nationals (8:35pm EST) It's Game 5 of the National League Division Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals tonight in the nation's capital. Each team has won two games in this series, but in very different ways. In the two games that the Cardinals won, they absolutely dominated by a combined score of 20-4 behind their potent lineup. The Nationals won each of their games by the slimmest of margins - one run. And those wins included a late rally in the 8th inning to win one game and a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth in another. Those were both coin flip games that the Nats came out on top. Needless to say, they're lucky to still be alive in this series.
Adam Wainwright will go up against Gio Gonzalez in tonight's showdown. From a pure numbers standpoint, Gio had a little bit better year than Wainwright did in 2012. However, Wainwright was much better in the second half of the season as he was slow to recover from Tommy John surgery early on. Gonzalez scuffled a bit down the stretch and was much better in April and May. Wainwright has also pitched in many more big games that Gio has, and experience like that is invaluable in pressure situations like this one. The Cardinals as a team have also been through this before (most notably last season) and that should be an advantage over a Nationals team that hasn't even appeared in the playoffs before. There aren't really many reasons to like Washington in this game. The Cardinals are swinging the bats better in this series, have the starting pitcher in better current form, and have more playoff experience as a team. It's hard to believe St. Louis is an underdog in this one, as I have them as a slight favorite. We'll gladly take the price on St. Louis here to advance.

10-unit Play Take #968 Oakland A's over Texas Rangers (3:35pm EST) The regular season is finally coming to end, but there is still meaningful baseball today in Oakland. The American League West division is up for grabs as the Texas Rangers and Oakland A's come into today's matchup with identical 93-68 records. What a season it has been for the A's. Nobody expected them to contend with a payroll less than half of the Rangers and one-third of the Angels, but they're here now. The key to the success of the A's has been the development of their young pitching, and today's starter A.J. Griffin is one of those guys. The rookie right-hander has only played half of the season, but has made a huge impact filling in for injured starters. He comes in at 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the season and no start is bigger than the one he is making today. Today's game will decide who the division winner is and who the wild card is.
Ryan Dempster gets the ball for the Rangers this afternoon. He was acquired from the Cubs near the trade deadline to bolster the team's starting rotation. Since the acquisition, Dempster has had a bit of trouble adjusting to life in the American League. His ERA in the AL is only 4.64 ERA to go along with a 1.39 WHIP. The Rangers will need to give him plenty of run support today, but I'm not confident that they are going to be able to do that. The Rangers offense gets a bit overrated playing in Arlington, and they are only 6th in the AL in runs scored on the road while Oakland is actually 3rd. As a result, the stadiums these teams play in are actually masking the fact that the A's have a better offense than the Rangers. If you're measuring momentum at this point, the A's are off the charts right now and Texas is slumping. Oakland is 50-25 since the All-Star break for an amazing .667 winning percentage. The Rangers, meanwhile, have been sputtering down the stretch going 16-16 in their last 32 contests. Oakland is simply the better team right now, they have the better starting pitcher on the mound today and they're at home. Why this line isn't at least -130 is beyond me. Take Oakland this afternoon as our Game of the Day.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #930 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) It's official - the Los Angeles Angels have been eliminated from playoff contention. After Oakland's victory last night over Texas, the Angels were dealt with the reality that all of their big spending in the offseason hasn't paid off yet. There was a lot of pressure on this team to win, but that's no excuse for not making the postseason. I don't expect the team's heart to be in today's game against Seattle given the circumstances. They're likely to sleep walk through these last two regular season games as they look ahead to the offseason. Today's starting pitcher for the Halos is Dan Haren. It's been a difficult season for the 32-year old. He's fought off injury issues for the first time in his career and comes in at 12-12 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.29 WHIP - his worst numbers in eight years. His mound opponent is right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. The rookie has flown under the radar this season posting some really good numbers. He's 8-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the season and has gotten better in each start. In his last eight starts, Iwakuma is 5-2 with a 2.06 ERA. The M's definitely have the better starting pitcher going today and are at home. Throw in the fact that the Angels will be a bit deflated and that adds up to a nice underdog play on Seattle today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #902 San Diego Padres over Los Angeles Dodgers (6:35pm EST) We've been riding the Padres bandwagon for quite some time now and it's paid off. Since the All-Star break, San Diego is 40-27 and has done a good job of playing spoiler down the stretch. Clayton Richard gets the ball for the Pads today and he loves pitching in Petco Park. On the road, Richard carries a hefty 4.64 ERA but it goes all the way down to 2.75 pitching in his home park. The Dodgers struggle against southpaws, so he'll have another advantage against their lineup today. Los Angeles sends right-hander Aaron Harang to the hill in this one. It hasn't been pretty for the 34-year old of late. In his last five starts, Harang hasn't complete six full innings in any of them and his ERA is 4.62 during that span. Even more discouraging, his strikeout-to-walk ratio in those five starts is only 13-12. He's either wearing down from a long season or battling a hidden injury. In any event, he's definitely someone you want to be fading at this point. The Dodgers are actually 0-7 in his last seven starts against teams with losing records. San Diego has been a juggernaut at home lately at 24-7 in their last 31 games in Petco. The Padres are just a better team right now and I have no problem laying this short price against a pitcher who can't locate his pitches right now.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #905 San Diego Padres over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm EST) Not many people know it, but the San Diego Padres are one of the best teams in the league in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, the Pads are a cool 37-25 and have climbed back to respectability. They suffered a lot of injuries in the early part of the season and were getting some younger players up to speed. Now they have an above average squad and the betting markets are still pegging this as a bad team. Left-hander Clayton Richard gets the ball this afternoon for San Diego. He isn't going to wow anyone with his stuff, but he generally keeps his team in the ball game and pitches deep into the game. That's all they should need today going up against Tyler Skaggs of the Diamondbacks. Skaggs is a rookie who was given a shot in the rotation a few weeks ago. In his five starts, all he has proved is that he's not quite ready for the big leagues yet and needs more grooming at the lower levels. He carries a 5.55 ERA and hasn't faced any great offenses so far in his outings. The long ball has been a problem for Skaggs as he's given one up in each of his starts. His control is also spotty and that's expected from a 21-year old rookie. The Padres are playing much better baseball right now and I think they'll get to Skaggs early and often today. Take San Diego here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #922 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (7:05pm EST) Another big series starts tonight when the Detroit Tigers host the Oakland A's in Comerica. While both teams are in the playoff race, this series is much bigger for the Tigers as they're currently on the outside looking in while the A's are holding the top wild card spot. And Detroit certainly has the right guy on the mound tonight to make up some ground. Max Scherzer is the hottest pitcher in all baseball at the moment. Over his last seven starts, the right-hander is 6-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He's shown excellent command of the strike zone and his strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is a stellar 60-9. There's no question that Scherzer is reaching a new level. The good news is that the betting marketplace hasn't quite figured out yet and the line on this game is relatively cheap.
Oakland counters with starting pitcher A.J. Griffin tonight. He's been throwing the ball really well lately as well, but not in the same stratosphere as Scherzer. The rookie right-hander has made only 11 starts this season, so he still has a lot to prove despite his 6-0 mark with a 1.94 ERA. It's always tough for a rookie pitcher to maintain success, as opposing hitters start to take notice and adjust accordingly. Against a Tigers team that crushes right-handed pitching, I'll expect Griffin to allow a few runs. That should be more than enough for Scherzer to work with. The Tigers have been one of the best home teams in baseball over the last few years, and are a very strong 43-28 in 2012. I like the Tigers in this one.

The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves both appear to be safely locked into the playoffs. Barring some kind of miracle, the Nats will be taking home the division crown and the Braves the top wild card spot. But these teams are both still competing hard and want to finish the season on a high note after scuffling a bit of late. Right-hander Edwin Jackson gets the start for Washington today. He's had an up and down year at 9-10 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. As far as stuff goes, he has the goods. It's just a matter of harnessing it all and pitching a smart game. On the other side is Tommy Hanson of the Braves. Hanson has had a very frustrating season and he may never be the same. Coming up through the Atlanta organization and in his first couple of seasons with the big league club, all indications were that he would be an ace. His numbers were phenomenal and it didn't appear that he had any major weaknesses. That however, was all before injuries plagued him last season. He hasn't fully recovered and his numbers are now below average with a 4.35 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 2012. He is now in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation and likely won't be pitching any meaningful baseball in October. That's a far cry from where this guy was heading before the season started. The betting markets seem to think Hanson will get things figured out as they have installed him as a solid favorite against the best team in the National League. I think the wrong team is favored in this one. Washington has the best run differential in all of baseball and still plays as an undervalued team in my eyes. Take the Nats at a good price here.

10-unit Play Take #957 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (10:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles come into Oakland as one of the hottest teams in baseball. They're 26-11 in their last 37 games and have clawed their way into a first-place tie with the Yankees in the American League East. Everyone knows the story by now, but it's hard not to appreciate the scrappiness of this team. However, they head into tonight's game off of two very dramatic wins in Baltimore against the Rays and then had to fly across country to Oakland after a 13-inning game yesterday. Needless to say, they will be emotionally and physically drained to start another important series. The pitching matchup today heavily favors the A's. Tom Milone pitches for Oakland and he has been a beast at home in 2012, sporting one of the biggest home/road splits in baseball. On the road Milone owns a 5.13 ERA, while he maintains a current 2.77 ERA at O.co Coliseum. The park plays to his strengths as a fly ball pitcher and he's quickly learned how to take advantage. Baltimore has also never seen Milone before, so it's going to be tough for them to get a good read on him until they go through the lineup a couple of times.
On the other side is the newly-acquired Joe Saunders for the Orioles. The southpaw will be making his fourth start with the team, and he's been a bit shaky so far. He has two wins, but his ERA in his three starts is 4.24 and his all-important strikeout-to-walk ratio is only 8-6 in those outings. Pitchers who have been traded from the National League to the American League in 2012 have not fared well (see Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Ryan Dempster). There's no reason to believe the mediocre Saunders is going to be any different, so I'll call for the A's to knock him around pretty good today and get the win against an Orioles team that has to be a bit exhausted. Oakland is the play.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #977 Detroit Tigers over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) The Detroit Tigers head to Anaheim to take on the Los Angeles Angels in a huge series for both teams. The Tigers are just one game out of first in the American League Central and 3.5 games out in the wild card race. The Angels, meanwhile, sit 8.5 games out of first and just three away from the wild card. So this series could go a long way in deciding the wild card. For Detroit, they send their hottest pitcher to the bump today in Max Scherzer. In fact, no one in baseball is throwing better than Scherzer at the moment. In his last five starts, the right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.03 ERA and 0.97 WHIP to go along with a 44-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Confidence has long been an issue for Scherzer and now that he has it, he's one of the most dominating pitchers in the league. Ervin Santana throws for the Halos today, and it's been quite a rocky ride for him in 2012. He enters today's game at 8-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but Santana has always been an inconsistent pitcher that you can't count on. In 10 of his 26 starts this season, he has yielded five runs or more. The only reason that he's still in the starting rotation is due to lack of options for the Angels with all of the injuries they have suffered.
The Tigers are 29-21 since the All-Star break and are finally clicking on all cylinders after a mediocre start to the season. With the hottest pitcher in baseball on the mound and one of the hottest teams, it's hard to believe that the price on this game is so low against a struggling pitcher. Take Detroit here as our Game of the Day.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #976 Oakland A's over Los Angeles Angels (4:05pm EST) If this sounds like a broken record, it's not -the Oakland A's are the hottest team in baseball, again! Winners of nine straight games and 15 of their last 17, the A's have catapulted themselves into the top wild card spot and are now only three games behind the Texas Rangers in the American League West. They're not exactly playing the same brand of Moneyball that they have in the past, but their results have been great. Much of the credit has to be given to pitching coach Curt Young who has molded this young pitching staff into one of the best in the American League. They are currently 2nd in the league with a team ERA of 3.41. They've had four different rookies make significant contributions in the starting rotation, and today we'll get to see one of them. Tom Milone may be the best of the bunch. At 11-9 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, this 25-year old knows how to pitch. He was acquired from the Nationals in the Gio Gonzalez trade and has been the rock of the rotation since day one. He also excels at home, owning one of the biggest home/road splits in baseball with a 2.34 ERA in O.co Coliseum and a 5.30 ERA on the road. The spacious ballpark in Oakland plays to his strengths as Milone is a fly ball pitcher who can locate his pitches very well. He'll have a tough task going up against a dangerous Angels lineup, but he's already beaten them twice this year and I like his chances to do it against a struggling C.J. Wilson. Take the winners of nine straight to extend their streak today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #963 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks head to San Francisco to take on the Giants for this Labor Day afternoon tilt. Two left-handers take the mound, one of which is an up and coming youngster and the other who is a declining veteran. Arizona's Patrick Corbin is the youngster and he's quietly putting together a solid rookie season at 5-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He's gotten better as the season has progressed and is close to securing a spot in the rotation for 2013 if he can keep this up. Veteran Barry Zito is 10-8 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. His skills are clearly declining and he's been very inconsistent for the entire season. You never know if you're going to get the bad Zito or the mediocre Zito when he takes the ball. The good news for Arizona is that there is no longer a good Zito anymore. Arizona hasn't been playing very good baseball lately, but I like their chances today with the matchup on the mound. Take the D-backs at a very reasonable price.

10-unit Play Take #963 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (8:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres in a game with no playoff implications or very much interest from fans. Both of these teams have long been cast away and are essentially just playing for the future at this point. However, one team hasn't given up and is playing a lot better than most teams that are still contention and that's the San Diego Padres. Over the last six weeks, San Diego is 28-17 and has won 10 of their last 11. It's hard to pinpoint the strengths of the Padres team, as they get contributions from every player and aren't really great at anything. On the other hand, the Rockies can't wait for the 2012 season to end. They've endured injuries to several key players throughout the season, including shortstop Troy Tulowitzki who is still out. They've also performed very poorly in front of the home fans at only 25-36 in Coors Field, where they usually have a decent edge.
Today's starter for the Pads is Edinson Volquez. He's been pretty erratic in his first season in a San Diego uniform, but pitching in Coors Field should play to his strengths. He's a groundball pitcher who can get a strikeout when he needs it and that's important in a ballpark where balls fly over the fence often. Volquez is also coming off of back-to-back strong performances in his last two outings where he went 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP against the Diamondbacks and Pirates. His opponent on the mound will be right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. The 24-year old fought back from a pectoral injury which caused him to miss about half of the season. He's only made seven starts in 2012 and they haven't been particularly good. Chacin comes in at 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. And unlike his counterpart, he is a fly ball pitcher - bad news in this park. The Padres enjoy the underdog role and are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a dog. They're a small underdog here again today, so I like them to keep the streak alive with another victory.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #903 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't quite dead yet, but they're close. At 64-66 and 7.5 games behind in the wild card hunt, the chances are slim that the team can find a way to squeeze into the playoffs. Arizona might be mailing it in as they've dropped five straight and 15 of 24 games while not looking very focused. Rookie Patrick Corbin goes today for Arizona. The southpaw is 5-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 15 games in 2012. Those aren't bad numbers but he's struggled in his last couple of outings with a 6.54 ERA against the hapless offenses of the Padres and Astros. Rookies generally start to wear down towards the end of the season, so this isn't a surprise. The Reds offense is much better especially when they go up against left-handers. They are 14-3 in their last 17 starts versus lefties, so Corbin may be in for a rough day.
While the Diamondbacks have been struggling, the Reds have been working on trying to wrap up the National League Central title. Even without their star slugger Joey Votto, the Reds have gone 35-14 in their last 49 games for an amazing .714 winning percentage. Pitching has been the name of the game for Cincinnati as they've had steady starting pitching combined with a lights out bullpen led by flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. Mat Latos gets the ball today and he's been solid after a slow April. The right-hander is 10-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The Reds are 13-5 in Latos' last 18 starts overall. The attitude on these two teams is very different right now and I think Cincinnati should be a much bigger favorite in this one. Take the Reds to complete the sweep today.

10-unit Play Take #963 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) There are a handful of pitchers in each league that don't get the respect that they deserve for one reason or another, and Johnny Cueto is definitely on that list. At 16-6 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, Cueto should be getting some serious Cy Young consideration but his name is rarely brought up when the so-called experts talk about candidates. This is on the heels of a season in which he had a 2.31 ERA, so there's nothing flukish about the numbers for this right-hander. He's remarkably consistent and has only given up more than three earned runs in four of his 26 starts this season - and even those starts weren't that bad as he was able to pick up the win in two of them. Cueto is only 26 years old and entering the prime of his career, so it's scary to think about the damage he could do as he continues to learn how to pitch.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been scuffling a bit of late after climbing their way back into the National League West race just a couple of weeks ago. They've dropped four straight and are just 9-14 in their last 23 games overall. They'll try to weather the storm with left-hander Wade Miley tonight. The rookie is 14-8 with a 2.80 ERA on the season, but he's at 151 innings pitched and that's a lot more than he's thrown at this point in the season at any level. That may be an issue as we head down the stretch and I wouldn't be surprised to see some drop off in his numbers. Today will be a tough challenge against a Reds lineup that feasts on southpaws, with the best left-handed splits in the major leagues as a team. With two very good pitchers throwing today, this game very well could be decided in the bullpen and that would be a huge advantage for the Reds. They have arguably the best closer in the game and very capable 7th and 8th inning arms. The Reds are 24-9 in Cueto's last 33 starts and the Diamondbacks have lost five of six games against right-handed starters. Take the Reds today at a great price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #914 Baltimore Orioles over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm EST) We're heading down the stretch in the MLB season and the Baltimore Orioles are still hanging around. They are tied for the second wild card spot at 69-57 and aren't showing any signs of letting up. They begin a four-game set with the Chicago White Sox today and rookie Wei-Yin Chen will get it started for the O's. The lefty import has been a steady force in the rotation all season at 12-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Many expected him to struggle in the second half once the league saw him a few times, but he's only gotten stronger and more confident as time has gone on. He'll go up against fellow left-hander Francisco Liriano of the White Sox today. As usual, it's been an up and down season for Liriano. He's 5-10 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.42 WHIP overall with the Twins and Sox. With all of the talent that he has, it's hard to comprehend how he can't put up better numbers. Most of his problems stem from his confidence and mental game. As the White Sox enter the stretch run and the pressure intensifies, I'd expect Liriano to crumble even more than he has so far. He's not built for pressure situations. The Orioles have also done very well against southpaws this season and are 10-3 in their last 13 games versus lefties. Baltimore isn't going anywhere this season and I like them to continue their winning ways against Chicago tonight.

10-unit Play Take #969 Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Blue Jays lineup is all of a sudden potent again. That's because slugger Jose Bautista will be hitting in the middle of it and he changes the entire dynamic of the offense. Bautista spent four weeks on the disabled list and the Jays consequently fell apart as a team. In his absence, Toronto went 10-23 over 33 games and averaged less than 3.6 runs per game in the process. The Jays have also suffered with a host of other injuries, but getting their best player back will make a world of difference today. They'll go up against left-hander Zach Britton of the Orioles today. The 24-year old has had a difficult season fighting back from injuries early on and spending most of his season in the minor leagues. He's been up with the big club and has made six starts so far without much success. He is coming off of a strong performance his last time out, but his ERA is still at 6.23 and he's struggled with control.
The Jays have their hottest starting pitcher on the mound in Carlos Villanueva. The right-hander started in the bullpen this season and was moved to the rotation with all of Toronto's injuries there. Since the transition, Villanueva has a 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP - numbers that are even better than when he was a reliever in shorter stints. That's pretty impressive, especially given the fact that he's went up against some of the better offenses in the American League in his nine starts. He'll stand on the mound against an Oriole offense that has struggled lately and fallen to 10th in the league in runs scored. They are an all or nothing kind of hitting team, and with a hot pitcher going up against them that could spell trouble. I look for the Jays to come with an inspired effort with their leader back, and they are a solid play as an underdog here.

10 unit Play Take #957 Atlanta Braves over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The fans in Atlanta were calling for it for quite some time, but nobody expected this from Kris Medlen. The 26-year old right-hander had been working in the bullpen for the majority of the season, but a spot opened up when Tommy Hanson was placed on the disabled list a few weeks ago. The Braves had a couple of options, but eventually decided to give Medlen a chance based on his success in the pen. Up until that point, Medlen had pitched very well in relief with a 2.48 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and everyone knew he had great stuff. But since he was placed into the rotation, he has been unstoppable. In four starts, Medlen is 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.90 WHIP as well as a 22-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His last time out he pitched a complete game shutout in front of the Atlanta fans. This is why they were calling for him to start and he has certainly answered the bell. Today he

10-unit Play Take #902 Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds (7:05pm EST) The Philadelphia Phillies are no longer in the National League playoff picture - they never really were this season. However, that doesn't mean that this team isn't still dangerous. With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley back in the lineup and their top two aces 100% healthy, this team is better than their 57-65 record indicates. They've won 10 of 16 and have taken turns winning games with their bats and with their stellar rotation. Cliff Lee gets the ball today and he's finally found a groove in 2012 after a rough start. Over his last four starts, Lee has a 3.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in addition to an eye-popping 30-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's no longer is his prime, but Lee is still one of the better pitchers in the National League and I think he might be flying under the radar a bit now.
The Cincinnati Reds send right-hander Homer Bailey to the mound today. He's had an up and down year and checks in at 10-8 with a 4.28 ERA. He hasn't been sharp of late as he's surrendered at least four earned runs in his last four outings and his control has been wild. The Reds are without slugger Joey Votto. So far they've managed pretty well without him, but at some point the role players aren't going to be able to keep picking up the slack and I think the Red's offense will suffer. Cincinnati is also only 2-9 in their last 11 games as a road underdog. I think this Philadelphia team will do a good job of playing spoiler down the stretch here as they no longer have any pressure on them. I like them today behind a surging Cliff Lee.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (4:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners host the Minnesota Twins in the series finale this afternoon in Target Field. This definitely won't be one of the highest rated baseball games on the card today, but that doesn't mean there isn't a good opportunity to cash in. The Mariners could have easily thrown in the towel in this season shortly after the All-Star break. At 40-55 in last place in the American League West on July 20th, the M's were clearly not going anywhere this season - but they continued to play hard. That effort has paid off lately as the team has went 17-9 in their 26 games since then. There are a lot of young players on this team fighting for spots on next year's edition, so I don't expect them to let up from here on out. They'll be backed by right-hander Blake Beavan today. Over his last five starts, the 23-year old has started to show signs that he might be a part of the Seattle rotation going forward. He has a 3.41 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in that span and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an impressive 21-2. This is a big confidence booster for Beavan who has had problems with consistency in his young career.
Speaking of young careers, Samuel Deduno pitches today for the Twins. Although he's 28-years old, this is his first full season in the majors. He's pitched admirably in his seven starts going 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA, but he won't be able to maintain it. Deduno is somehow getting by even though he's walking 6.8 batters per nine innings. That's one of the worst rates in baseball. It would be somewhat acceptable if he was at least striking out a high amount of batters as well, but at the moment he's walking more than he strikes out. He's also been aided by an obscene 81% strand rate, a mark that will fall precipitously as time goes on. 28-year old pitchers making the majors for the first time usually isn't a good sign. If he had great stuff or something to hang his hat on, he would have been up with the big club long ago. It might not be long before he is sent back down to where he truly belongs - Triple A. And it's there where he probably ends up making a career. The Mariners have been playing great baseball lately and they have a much better pitcher throwing today, so we'll gladly go to the window here. They look for the sweep at home today in our Game of the Day.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #905 Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) Chris Capuano is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the National League. At 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA, the left-hander has quietly given the Dodgers over 150 quality innings this season. He doesn't throw hard, barely getting above 90mph with his fastball, but he certainly knows how to pitch. Capuano is coming off one of his better efforts of the season where he pitched eight shutout innings against the Marlins while striking out 10 batters. The Braves aren't particularly adept at hitting southpaws so I don't expect them to threaten Capuano much today.
On the other side, Tommy Hanson gets his first start since going on the disabled list with a bad back issue. Backs are a tricky type of injury and pain can flare up at any time, so I wouldn't be surprised if Hanson isn't too effective in this one. It's been his worst season of his professional career as he comes in with a 4.29 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He's managed to earn a 12-5 mark, but don't let that fool you as he's received great run support in his starts. Both of these teams have been playing great baseball lately, but I think the Dodgers are a better team after making several big acquisitions at the trade deadline. Adding Shane Victorino and Hanley Ramirez to put some talent around Kemp and Ethier was a smart move and puts the Dodgers up there as one of the more potent lineups in the league. This line feels just a little bit too big today and I like Los Angeles to escape with a win.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #970 New York Yankees over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) Two first place clubs go at in the Bronx as the Yankees host the Rangers tonight. Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball for New York and he has been on an absolute mission lately. Over his last five outings, the right-hander has a 1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The key to his dominance has been his control as he's only walked three batters over those five starts combined. Kuroda has also been spectacular in Yankee Stadium this season as he's 7-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP - not too shabby for pitching in a hitter-friendly environment.
Pitching for Texas is left-hander Matt Harrison. He's been a little off his game of late as he's posted a 5.55 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his last four starts. Texas as a team has also struggled lately. Since July 1st, the team is 17-18 and has seen the Angels and A's close the gap in the American League West. Their hitting has been inconsistent and their pitching staff has had some major breakdowns in both the rotation and the pen. The Yankees are 54-26 in their last 80 games against left-handed starters dating back to last season, and I look for them to continue that dominance at home today. Take the Yanks.

10-unit Play Take #901 Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs (4:05pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds just broke a five-game losing streak yesterday against the Cubs in a 10-8 win. Despite their recent struggles, the Reds still hold a 3.5 game lead in the National League Central, which is a testament to how good they've been all season. The key to Cincinnati's success has been their strong bullpen. Sure they have a decent offense and some good starting pitchers, but their bullpen has been lights out from the middle men all the way to the closer. The Reds have amassed a 2.59 bullpen ERA in 2012, which is first in all of baseball by a wide margin. At the back end, no end is better than stopper Aroldis Chapman. The flame throwing left-hander has been clocked at over 105mph this season and is striking out a ridiculous 16.9 batters per nine innings. He holds a 1.31 ERA and 0.69 WHIP as he rarely gets himself into any trouble at all. If the Reds have a lead late, you might as well chalk up a victory with the Reds' pen.
Neither one of today's starters is very impressive as Bronson Arroyo and Travis Wood are just you're average #3 or #4 type starters. However, Cincinnati is going to have a much easier time of it today as Wood is a southpaw and the Reds love raking against lefties. With Joey Votto currently on the disabled list, the Reds are typically playing seven right-handers in their everyday lineup. As a result, it's no mystery why they've racked up much better numbers against left-handers and have won six of their last seven games against them. The Cubs come into today's game struggling in every phase of the game and have lost nine of their last 10. They're starting to bring up some of their Triple-A prospects to audition them for 2013, so the worst lineup in baseball just got even worse. The Cubs are dead last in most major batting categories already, and it might get downright embarrassing in the last two months now. The Reds are the much better team here and I think they take this one rather easily.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #954 Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm EST) My how things have changed. If today's game between the St. Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies were being played in early April, the line with this pitching matchup would probably be close to -180 for the Phillies. However, with the Phillies disappointing season and the good fortunes of Kyle Lohse, Philadelphia comes in at only a slight favorite. Roy Halladay has missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, but this will be his fifth start back from the disabled list and he's gotten stronger in each outing. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, Halladay pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out five and walking only one. His control has been pinpoint, something he has struggled with earlier on in the season, and he's only walked a total of three batters in his last four starts since returning. While he may not be quite the pitcher he was in the last few seasons, Halladay looks about 90% or so and that's much better than most pitchers in baseball.
Lohse is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career at 12-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. However, his numbers don't quite add up as none of his skills have really changed much. At 34-years old, starting pitchers don't generally improve this much after being in the league for over 10 years. Lohse is still striking out 5.4 batters per nine innings, which is the same as his career mark. His groundball rate is actually worse than his career levels at only 41% in 2012. He hasn't developed any new pitches or come back from any serious injuries either. The only improvement he has made is that he's walking one less batter per nine innings than his career average. While that is a significant reduction, it doesn't justify an ERA that is 1.7 runs lower than his career mark. Bottom line - expect some regression from the veteran from here on out. The Phillies lineup hasn't hit to its potential this season, but they're still dangerous with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard starting to get comfortable at the plate. This will also be one of the few matchups where the Phillies can say that they have an advantage in the bullpen, as the Cardinals pen has been a complete disaster over the last couple of months. With Halladay getting back into his old form, the line on this game is just way too low and that's why we've made it our 10-unit Game of the Day

10-unit Play Take #975 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) CC Sabathia is on the mound for the Yankees today and he looks as good as ever. The burly left-hander is 11-3 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the season, and in last outing he went the distance against the Mariners striking out 10 and only walking one. Sabathia is a rare breed as he's always been one of those pitchers who get better as the season goes along. He doesn't wear down like many other pitchers do, and he seems to find himself a nice groove in the second half of the season. He'll face a Tigers lineup that struggles against southpaws, hitting only .250 against them for a 10th place ranking in the league. It surely won't be any easier with Sabathia in his second half groove either.
The Tigers made some moves at the trading deadline to improve their team for the stretch run, and one of the guys they acquired was today's starter Anibal Sanchez. The 28-year old right-hander is having a decent season at 6-8 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but most of those starts were against much weaker National League hitters. There aren't many lineups comparable to the Yankees in the National League and Sanchez didn't look too incredibly comfortable against the Indians and Blue Jays in his first two American League starts. Sanchez will need to be extremely sharp going up against Sabathia, but I don't think he's comfortable enough to do that yet. Take the Yankees at a low price with Sabathia on the hill.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #966 Baltimore Orioles over Seattle Mariners (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles host the Seattle Mariners in the first of a three-game set in Camden Yards. The Orioles come in riding a high after outlasting the Rays 1-0 in a 10 inning affair yesterday afternoon, making that five wins in their last seven games. Despite all of the doubters, the O's have stayed in the thick of things in the American League and are now at 57-51 on the season. Right-hander Chris Tillman will toe the rubber for Baltimore today and he's been a nice boost to the rotation in the place of the injured Jason Hammel. In his five starts, Tillman is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Four of his starts were on the road as well, making it even more impressive. Tillman also already beat Seattle in his first start of the season where he almost went the distance. He pitched 8 2/3 innings in that contest without giving up an earned run and only allowing two hits and two walks.
The Mariners counter with left-hander Jason Vargas. The 29-year old is 12-7 with a 3.71 ERA on the season, but a closer look at his splits reveals an important fact. Vargas is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. At home, Vargas checks in with a cool 2.63 ERA and on the road he has a mediocre 4.67 ERA - one of the biggest differentials in the league. He's been that way for most of his career and a lot of that has to do with his pitching style and the fact that he pitches in Safeco Field at home. Baltimore is much more hitter-friendly and isn't as kind to extreme fly ball pitchers. Baltimore hits southpaws very well on top of it, so Vargas will have his work cut out for him today. The Orioles may not be quite as good as their record indicates, but this is a much better team than the Mariners with just about any pitching matchup except versus King Felix. Baltimore also has a stronger pen and much more pop in their lineup, so this line should be closer to -150. Take the O's at a good price.

10-unit Play Take #930 Oakland A's over Toronto Blue Jays (10:05pm EST) The Oakland A's host the Toronto Blue Jays in game that features Daniel Straily's major league debut for Oakland. Straily was just called up from Triple-A Sacramento where he simply dominated. He went 5-2 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in eight starts there after being promoted from Double-A. At Double-A Midland he had a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In both places he struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings and was the minor league strikeout leader when he was called up. He also has excellent control and only walks 2.4 batters per nine innings. Needless to say, this 23-year old has some great stuff and has a high ceiling. Oakland has waved the magic wand in regards to bringing along their young pitchers. This year alone they've developed Tom Milone, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and Travis Blackley into formidable major league starting pitchers. That's a great track record and should bode well for the fortunes of Straily, as the A's have deemed him to be ready for the show.
The Blue Jays' season is all but over as they sit in the cellar of the American League East with too many teams in front of them for the two wild card spots. If they were 100% healthy, they might have a shot, but without their original starting rotation and slugger Jose Bautista it's a lost cause. Injuries have forced today's starter Brett Cecil into the rotation, and he's been mediocre at best. The left-hander is 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA in eight starts and he's probably one bad start away from being demoted back to the minors. The Jays have dropped five straight and the mood isn't very good in Toronto. The A's, on the other hand, have won 20 of 26 and are vying for a wild card spot as baseball's hottest team right now. Straily should have a big edge against the Jays as no one has seen him before and I think he'll pitch well and get good support from one of the best bullpens in the league. Take Oakland as our American League Game.

10-unit Play Take #927 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Zach McAllister is quietly putting together a very solid rookie campaign. The 24-year old right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA and has the skill set to get even better. He's averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings and only 2.3 walks. His fastball gets up to the mid-90's and he has good mound presence for a youngster. Today he'll face the Royals for the first time in his career - a definite leg up for the rookie. The Royals have also struggled at the plate for most of the season; ranking 13th in runs scored in the American League. They're clearly a team looking ahead to the future rather than in the present. In fact, the Royals are only 6-21 in their last 27 games overall.
The Royals starter today is right-hander Luis Mendoza. At 4-7 with a 4.47 ERA, the 28-year old is still trying to find his way in his first full season. He spent six years in the minor leagues combined with the Red Sox, Rangers and now the Royals organization. That's usually not a great sign for a big league pitcher as the most talented prospects are generally given a legitimate shot well before then. The biggest problem for Mendoza is his strikeout-to-walk ratio. He only strikes out 5.3 batters per nine innings while walking 3.9. That ratio will need to improve for him to stay up with big club. The Indians are an underrated offense that has endured quite a few injuries this season. They're also a patient team at the plate, evidenced by their number two ranking in walks in the league, so they can put pressure on opposing hurlers who struggle with their control. Neither one of today's teams is playoff bound, but the Indians look to be playing a lot harder and they have a definite advantage on the hill today. Take the Indians at a nice price today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) Division rivals go at it again as the Los Angeles Angels look to close the gap even further against the first place Texas Rangers. The Angels rocked the Rangers 15-8 last night in Arlington to pull within four games of first place in the American League West. It was a statement game for the Angels as they continue to put pressure on the struggling Rangers. Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver gets the ball in this one and he's been as good as it gets in the American League this year at 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. On the other side is Derek Holland who has struggled this year at 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Holland has fought through injuries for part of the season and his stuff hasn't been as sharp recently as a result.
There's no question that the Angels are the hotter team right now. On May 21st, the Angels were 18-25 in last place in the division while the Rangers were 26-17, eight full games ahead. Since then the Angels have went 38-22 while the Rangers are 33-25. The Angels have also won five of the last seven meetings between the teams and are 41-15 in Weaver's last 56 starts overall. This one should be a great game but I like the Angels' chances with the way they've been playing and the much better starting pitcher.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #923 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) Two right-handers go at it today in Baltimore as the Orioles host the Oakland A's. Veteran Bartolo Colon gets the ball for the surging A's today. Oakland comes at 17-3 in their last 20 games and has been a wrecking ball offensively. Over those 20 games, the A's are averaging 5.3 runs per game including 41 runs over their last four contests (10.3 per game). The current streak has propelled the A's into the second wild card spot in the American League and this young team is finally starting to believe that they might be able to pull off a miracle this season. Colon has been a reliable starter for the A's this season and always keeps the team in the game. He's 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA, but has only given up more than four runs twice in his 19 starts this season. He's also done a really good job of eating innings this season and giving the bullpen a little more rest when they need it.
Right-hander Tommy Hunter goes today for the O's. The 26-year old has been like a pinball for the last couple of seasons bouncing back and forth between the major leagues and minor league systems. He was recently called up due to injuries and has pitched decent in his first two starts. However, his stuff wasn't great as he only punched out a total of five batters in 14 1/3 innings against Cleveland and Minnesota. One of the reasons that he was sent down originally was his propensity for giving up the long ball. He's served up 22 home runs in his 15 starts this season and one each in his last two outings. Oakland hits well on the road and they've shown lately that they can take advantage of weak pitching. The Orioles, on the other hand, have struggled at the plate lately averaging only 3.6 runs per contest over their last 17. The A's have had a big upper hand in this series for the last several seasons going 64-26 in the last 90 meetings, including 36-17 the last 53 meetings in Baltimore. The A's are the hottest team in baseball right now and they still aren't getting enough respect to be the favorites against a struggling Baltimore team. Take Oakland as our 5-unit Game of the Day.

10-unit Play Take #908 Miami Marlins over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) A pair of veterans square off as the Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves tonight. The 33-year old Mark Buehrle takes the ball for the Marlins and he's been on a nice run of late. In his last five starts, Buehrle is 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He seems to be getting more comfortable with National League batters in each start and is making better adjustments against them than his opposition is. You can always count on Buehrle to keep you in the game, as he has only surrendered more than four earned runs on one occasion in 19 starts this year. He'll have a decent advantage today against a left-handed heavy Atlanta lineup as well.
On the other side is Tim Hudson. The right-hander is a bit older than Buehrle as 37-years old, and his age is definitely starting to show this season. Statistically he's having his worse season since 2006 and the peripheral numbers back it up. He's still respectable at 8-4 with a 3.70 ERA, but he's lost a ton of velocity on his fastball, especially in his last five starts. There could be a hidden injury for Hudson or he could be making some mechanical changes to compensate for losing some of his stuff. Either way, he's not the same Hudson that we've seen over the last decade or so. The Marlins made a big trade yesterday in unloading Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante for prospects. It basically put up the white flag and signaled that the Marlins are now looking towards the future instead of the playoffs this year. At 45-51 it was smart move, and I think this deal will actually allow the Marlins to play without pressure for the first time all season. It's been a tough year with a new stadium and all of the expectations for the team due to the heavy spending in the offseason. I like the pitching matchup in this one and think a loose Miami team will come through with a win today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

We don't have the sexiest of matchups today in San Diego, but that doesn't mean there isn't value to be found. The Colorado Rockies take on the Padres in a game that features a couple of subpar starting pitchers. The Rockies send left-hander Jeff Francis to the mound. Francis is only 2-2 with a 4.76 ERA in his eight starts on the season. Opposing pitcher Kip Wells is 1-3 with a 2.82 ERA in his four starts in 2012. On the surface, it appears that Wells is having the better year, but that would be an inaccurate assumption. Wells has simply been luckier than Francis so far and pitches in a much friendlier environment. Francis comes in with a 1.41 WHIP while Wells checks in at an astronomical 1.61. That will eventually catch up with him as he's putting way too many guys on base. Wells also made half of his starts in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, one of easiest places to pitch in all of baseball, while Francis' home park is the dangerous Coors Field. Adjusting for these factors, you can easily identify Francis as the superior pitcher right now and should put out a better effort in this matchup.

In addition, the Padres have a very difficult time against southpaws and Francis throws from the left side. They carry a .628 OPS against lefties, which places them 15th in the National League. Going back to last season, the Padres are also only 18-41 in their last 59 games versus left-handed starters. The Rockies haven't proven to be a great hitting team on the road, but they have won six of Francis' last seven starts. Colorado has also won 13 of the last 19 contests in San Diego, so they should be comfortable in this one. The numbers point to the Rockies in this one and I think they get the job done tonight.

10-unit Play Take #901 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (2:10pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers square off in the rubber game of their three-game set tonight in Miller Park. St. Louis finally is close to 100% healthy after struggling with injuries for the entire season. It's been a bit under the radar, but the Cardinals put more players on the disabled list in the first half than any other team in the National League. Maybe it's because they have decent depth and were able to plug in respectable replacements, but there's no question that this team is now better than its 47-44 record. Today they go with Adam Wainwright on the mound. The 30-year old right-hander is only 7-9 with a 4.62 ERA on the season, but he too can't be judged only by his statistics at this point. Wainwright came back from Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the season and it took him awhile to get comfortable again. In his recent outings, he's been pitching more like the Wainwright that everyone is accustomed to. Over his last six starts, he has a 3.99 ERA with a 37-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His confidence is back and I expect him to have a big second half as the Cardinals look to make a strong run at the National League Central title.
The Milwaukee Brewers seem to be having a tough time deciding if they should give up on the season and start trading away some of their assets to build for the future. At 43-47 they still have an outside chance of possibly getting back in the mix, but it would take a minor miracle. There have been a plethora of rumors surrounding the availability of Zack Greinke and a couple of other Brewer players, but nothing has come to fruition yet. Milwaukee rookie Tyler Thornburg will make only his second career start this afternoon. Thornburg has a smallish stature but throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a potentially-plus changeup. His curveball is inconsistent but his arm slot is too high to give him the option of switching to a slider. The right-hander's command and control both need work at this point. He doesn't seem like he's quite ready for the big leagues and I think a powerful St. Louis lineup is going to be a bit too much to handle in this one. Milwaukee also has some big issues in their bullpen right now and there's a good chance that will rear its ugly head today with a rookie making the start. Take the Cardinals in a game that could easily get out of hand in our favor.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #976 Minnesota Twins over Baltimore Orioles (8:10pm EST) Two young pitchers square off in Minnesota today as the Twins host the Baltimore Orioles. Zach Britton was just called up by the O's a few days ago to make his first start of the 2012 season. The 24 year-old had a spot in the Baltimore rotation last season and pitched decent going 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA. However, he had some injury issues earlier in the year and that basically put him back in the minor leagues to start the season. He's had a hard time recovering and the team still isn't quite sure if he's ready to face big league pitching again. He'll face a tough Twins lineup today that thrives on hitting left-handed pitching. Minnesota is second in the American League in OPS against southpaws, behind only the Yankees. They also are following up on a 19-7 thrashing of the Orioles last night in which they accumulated 20 hits in a game for the third time this season, which leads the majors.
The Twins counter with rookie pitcher Sam Deduno. The 29-year old rookie has spent quite a bit of time in the minor leagues and is finally getting a chance to enjoy the big leagues and show the Twins what he's got. In his first start last week, he pitched well in Arlington against a potent Rangers lineup. He allowed only three runs in 5 1/3 innings and was in line for a win until the bullpen blew the game for him. He'll have a much easier time of it tonight at home in Minnesota against a free-swinging Orioles lineup. Baltimore has really struggled to put runs on the board lately and is averaging only 2.8 runs per game over their last seven contests. Deduno should be more comfortable in this one at home, while Britton may be a little more nervous on the road for his first start of the season. I like the way the Twins have been playing over the last six weeks and they've proven to be a better ballclub than Baltimore of late. Take Minnesota in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #908 Houston Astros over San Diego Padres (10:05pm EST) Two of the National League's worst square off today as the San Diego Padres host the Houston Astros. The Padres check in at 36-54 while the Astros are even worse at 33-56. Both teams are building for the future, but the games must go on in the meantime. Houston has slowly started to build a decent collection of arms in the starting rotation, and J.A.H app is one of those pieces. At 29 years old he's one of the elders on the staff, but he's definitely showed some signs of finally figuring things out. Happ is 6-9 with a 5.14 ERA, but don't let that tell you the whole story. He has a career high strikeout rate of 8.6 per nine innings and has also tempered his walk rate down to his career low at 3.4. He's inducing more groundballs than ever and his pitches are more refined. The only key ingredient he is lacking is more confidence, but that is slowly coming along. I expect to see a breakthrough second half for Happ and better numbers than he's posted in his young career.
Kip Wells was promoted to the major leagues a few weeks ago out of desperation. San Diego has incurred several injuries to its pitching staff and Wells was one of the few experienced players in the minor leagues that they thought could step right in. He didn't really deserve the chance to pitch again in the major leagues after his three year hiatus. Wells had a 4.97 ERA in Triple-A and his peripheral numbers were even worse. But the Padres brought him up anyways and today he'll make his fourth start of the season. He's posted a solid ERA at 2.50, but there are plenty of warning signs that Wells will find his way back to the minor leagues once again. He currently is walking more batters than he is striking out, and no pitcher can survive that for long. His fastball velocity is also down less than 90 mph and his stuff isn't all that impressive. He's throws a lot of junk up there and he's been fortunate to avoid disaster in his first three outings. Neither one of these offenses is very good, but the Astros have a slight leg up on the Padres. However, the Astros have lost 13 of their last 14 games, so the linesmakers were forced to put the Padres as the favorite in this one. Based on the pitching matchup, however, the Astros should be the favorites in this contest. Take Houston as an underdog tonight as we get some value with a struggling team.

10-unit Play Take #923 Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals (8:05pm EST) We might have the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball on the mound in today's game between the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals. It's unbelievable that Jonathan Sanchez is still in the rotation for the Royals, but he's at it again tonight versus the Mariners. Sanchez comes in at 1-5 with a miserable 6.75 ERA. He is walking 7.4 batters per game, which is a major league worst for qualifying starters. He's had mechanical problems and has lost some of his velocity. He's spent time of the disabled list and there's a good chance that he's still injured. So why is Jonathan Sanchez still pitching for a team that has aspirations for getting back into the hunt in the American League Central? That's a great question that nobody can really answer.
What's even more egregious is the fact that the linesmakers have inserted Sanchez as a favorite in today's game. His opponent Jason Vargas is having a good season at 8-7 with a 4.08 ERA and the Mariners aren't so bad that they can't take advantage of a weak pitcher. Kansas City is also one of the worst home teams in baseball at 15-25 while the Mariners aren't terrible on the road at 20-26 this season. Not much more to analyze in this contest. The linesmakers made an error on this one and we'll take advantage by playing Seattle tonight against probably the worst starter in the majors right now.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #908 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates are the darlings of the league right now. At 48-38, the Pirates stand atop the National League Central after 20+ years of futility. But are they for real? The Pirates' winning recipe this season has been riding a couple of strong starters at the front of the rotation and relying on an amazing bullpen to finish things off. Throw in an MVP-caliber season from Andrew McCutcheon and you have the pillars upon which the Pirates are built. However, things are going to get very difficult for the Pirates going forward and there's a good chance that we see everything that they've built up start to crumble. The bullpen currently has the best ERA in all of baseball at 2.63. Bullpens are generally very fluid and with a collection of unproven arms making up their staff, it's unfair to ask the bullpen to continue to perform the way that it has up until now. We'll definitely see some regression in the second half from this group and it could be significant. The story is similar for McCutcheon. Holding a .367 batting average with 19 home runs and 61 RBI, he's definitely one of the leading candidates for league MVP. However, he's earning more respect from opposing pitchers by the day and it's unlikely that he's going to see any good pitches with runners on base from here on out. The Pirates will need the rest of the lineup to step it up if they want to continue to win. That's asking for a lot considering that most of Pittsburgh's lineup is batting below .230 on the season.
Today Pittsburgh will be sending one of their weakest arms to the hill in Kevin Correia. The right-hander is 5-6 with a 4.34 ERA and has a dismal 3.4 strikeout rate per innings. He'll go up against the promising Marco Estrada of the Brewers. Estrada is 0-3 with a 4.06 ERA, but his peripheral numbers are very encouraging. The 29-year old is averaging 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a walk rate of only 1.8. In his last three outings, Estrada has looked sharp with a 3.00 ERA and a 21-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Brewers offense is very solid at home, where they are 2nd in runs scored in the National League. The Pirates struggle away from home and have had one of the most drastic home/road splits in baseball for the last several years. Don't buy the hype - the Pirates will fade and now's a good time to take advantage. Take Milwaukee in this one as our Game of the Month.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

At 37-48, there are a lot of people starting to count the Phillies out this season. They currently sit in last place in the National League East and 13 games behind the first place Nationals. Philadelphia has struggled to win ballgames, but they've also caught a lot of bad breaks in the process. The loss of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay, probably their top three players, challenged the depth of this team and they simply couldn't make up the difference. However, they just got their two big sticks back in Utley and Howard, and Halladay isn't too far away. With their top two hitters back in the lineup, this isn't the same Phillies team that is in last place right now. Before the season started, most have projected this team to win more than 90 games and compete for another World Series. Now that they're mostly healthy, this may be a 90-win team disguised as a last place squad.

Joe Blanton takes the ball for Philadelphia today. He's one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the league as he's simply been unlucky for almost two years now. With a batting average on balls in play of .362 and .301, respectively over the last two seasons, Blanton should have an ERA in the mid 3's rather than close to 5. He has immaculate control as he's only walked 15 batters in 104 innings of work in 2012, and his strikeout rate of 7.7 per nine innings is nothing to breeze over. Blanton has the skills to pitch well and win games, but he just needs to avoid the bad breaks. Today he'll face a Braves lineup that he dominated in his last outing against them. In early May, Blanton pitched a complete game shutout in Atlanta allowing only three hits and no walks. It was easily his most impressive performance of the season and he'll surely have confidence today seeing them again.

The Braves counter with Tommy Hanson on the mound in this one. Hanson simply hasn't been the same pitcher that he once was. Between recovering from a late season injury that he incurred last year and changing some of his mechanics as a result, Hanson lost some of the life on his fastball. His strikeouts have dropped about 20% and he's giving up the long ball more often than before. In his only start against the Phillies this season, Hanson surrendered four runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. His counter Joe Blanton is in much better form right now, and I like the Phillies offense to make a splash with Howard getting more comfortable in his return. Take the Phillies at home today at even money.

The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels start a four-game series tonight in Anaheim. The Orioles won two of three from the Mariners in their last series to improve to 44-37 this season. Many thought that this team would have started fading by now, but they continue to find ways to win games with contributions coming from everyone on their roster. Baltimore expressed a commitment to winning last week when they traded for Jim Thome from the Phillies. He fits nicely in their DH spot and is a solid left-handed stick that they could use in the lineup. The Orioles have been struggling at the plate recently, averaging only 3.1 runs per game over their last 18 contests, so the addition of Thome should provide a nice boost. He's also a great guy in the clubhouse and someone who the younger players could lean on when the pennant chase heats up later in the year. The Orioles will face rookie Garrett Richards of the Angels today. Richards has pitched well in his first full season going 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in his six games. However, he's coming off of his worst outing of the season in which he gave up 10 runs (5 earned) in only 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays. It generally gets tougher as the season goes along for young pitchers as the league makes adjustments to them and learns their weaknesses. Baltimore has some dangerous hitters that swing for the fences, so Richards could easily find more trouble in this one.

The Angels come in playing great baseball over the last two months after a horrible start to the season. However, they have dropped four of their last six games and might be cooling off a bit. This is the Angels' first game back home after a nine-game road trip, so they will probably be a bit weary for this one as they flew in from Cleveland last night. They'll go up against right-hander Jake Arrieta in this matchup. Arrieta's ERA isn't pretty this season in the high 5's, but he has good peripheral numbers that indicate a great chance for improvement. He's averaging 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings and only 2.6 walks - a very solid 3-1 ratio. He also has a good groundball rate at 43% and has increased the velocity on his fastball. Those numbers look more like a guy with a sub-4 ERA, and that's how we'll value him in this one. I have the price on this game in the 120's, so plenty of value on the underdog. Take the Orioles tonight.

The Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners square off in the rubber game of the series tonight in Safeco Field. The Mariners have struggled to score runs in their home park all season long and are hitting an absurd .199 in Safeco in 2012. Tonight they'll face Chris Tillman of the O's who was just called up from the minor leagues to make this start. Tillman has spent parts of the last three seasons with the big league club, but this will be his first start on the 2012 campaign. The 24-year old right-hander has been pitching well recently allowing only two earned runs in his last three starts at Triple-A Norfolk. More impressively, he has a 23-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those outings. With the Mariners bats ice cold, he gets a nice transition back to the major leagues.

Seattle will counter with right-hander Hector Noesi in this one. To say it nicely, Noesi has been a mess this season. At 2-10 with a 5.69 ERA, it's hard to believe he is still in the rotation but Seattle doesn't have many other options. Over his last six starts, Noesi has completely lost his confidence and has a 7.67 ERA and a weak 22-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Baltimore has a dangerous lineup and it wouldn't be surprising to see them knock out Noesi very early in tonight's game. The Mariners are 2-8 in Noesi's last 10 starts as an underdog. The Orioles have won 7 of 8 against teams with a losing record. Take the O's tonight as we get a very good price for a complete mismatch.

The San Diego Padres face the Arizona Diamondbacks in a matchup of young guns. There has been a ton of hype surrounding the call up of the D-Backs phenom Trevor Bauer. He has been touted as a potential ace for the rotation and was the most prized possession in the Arizona system. After plenty of fanfare, the 21-year old finally made his major league debut in Atlanta last week and the outcome was bittersweet. Bauer pitched well enough to keep his team in the game, but the D-backs pulled him out of the game after four innings due to a groin injury. The team says that Bauer is fine and that it was strictly precautionary, but the last thing a youngster wants in the back of his mind when he's on the mound is a potential injury scare. He finished with a mediocre stat line of two earned runs allowed in the four innings of work, with three strikeouts and three walks. This kid has the potential to be amazing at some point, but I think the hype machine may have him a bit overrated at this point.

While Bauer has been getting a ton of hype in recent weeks, there's not enough of it going around for Andrew Cashner. The 25-year old right-hander was moved from the bullpen into the starting rotation as the Padres think that he has good enough stuff and a nice repertoire of pitches. They sent him down the minors to be stretched out for his new role, and he dominated going 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He also struck out 23 batters while only walking three down on the farm. Last week Cashner was promoted back to the big leagues and he continued his torrid run. He allowed only two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings while punching out nine batters and only walking one. While he didn't get the victory, his team got the win and much of that was due to the great performance of the youngster. While he hasn't gotten the kind of attention the Bauer has received, Cashner has great stuff and has the potential to be an ace someday as well. He'll obviously have a tough test tonight in a hitter's park against a pretty good lineup, but I think he's going to surprise some folks and ruin the home debut for the rookie Bauer.

10-unit Play Take #905 Cincinnati Reds over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm EST) Two first place teams square off as the Cincinnati Reds battle the Giants in San Francisco. Both teams come in playing very good baseball of late. The Reds have won 23 of their last 38 games and still have a lot of room for improvement on the offensive side. The Reds check in at right in the middle of the pack in the National League at 4.3 runs per game. That's a far cry from last season when they were second in the league in runs scored. They have basically the same collection of hitters, so I think we'll see them get back to their form from last season in due time. The reason that they've attained a record of 42-34 is their solid starting pitching and a great bullpen. They're fifth in the league in ERA at 3.50 and have one of the best closers in baseball in Aroldis Chapman. When they get the bats swinging well, they are going to be a very difficult team to beat. Mat Latos gets the ball for the Reds today. The talented right-hander has had a shaky season, but he's found a bit of a groove lately and is pitching his best baseball right now. In his last start he struck out 13 batters in a complete game effort where he only allowed one run. He's been keeping the ball down in the zone in his last few starts, something that he wasn't doing earlier in the season when he really struggled.
The Giants come in winning six of their last eight games and find themselves at the top of the National League West. Their recipe has been similar to the Reds, as they have relied on good pitching from both their starting rotation and their bullpen. The hitting is coming around, but they are still only ranked 10th in the league in runs scored. Barry Zito gets the nod in this one for San Francisco. He hasn't been good since he joined the Giants in 2007 and this year is no different. He has a 4.00 ERA, but his peripheral numbers are terrible, so we should see that ERA spike up shortly. The Reds beat up left-handers pretty good and there's little doubt that they'll be able to knock out Zito before he completes five innings. The Reds have won their last five starts with Latos on the mound as a favorite. The Giants, on the other hand, are only 6-14 in Zito's last 20 starts as an underdog. Huge mismatch on the mound today and that's where the value lies. Take the Reds to win their second straight against the Giants today, in our Game of the Day.

10-unit Play Take #953 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) It's do or die time for the Philadelphia Phillies. At 36-42 in last place in the National League East, the Phils need to make some noise right away or else they'll be sellers at the trading deadline looking ahead to next year. They got a big shot in the arm the other night when Chase Utley returned to the lineup after missing the first three months of the season. All he did was go 3-5 with a home run in his debut, hitting in the third spot in the lineup. There's no question that having him in the lineup will improve an already above average offense, and will help the team defensively. Veteran Cliff Lee takes the mound for Philadelphia today looking for his first win of the season. Lee has deserved better as he hasn't pitched that badly this season. His ERA is at 3.72, which is much higher than his career mark, but his peripheral numbers are all nearly identical. He's been plagued by a high .320 average on balls in play, but that will come down as the season progresses.
Josh Johnson takes the ball for the Miami Marlins in this matchup. He's had a good season despite a higher ERA as well. With a 3.96 ERA, Johnson has suffered some of the same bad luck as Lee as his opponents have a .348 average on balls in play. I give Lee a slight edge over Johnson today as he has much better career numbers and is far less erratic than his counterpart. The Marlins team has also just been a disaster recently. At 4-17 in their last 21 games, Miami has gone from a serious playoff contender to a team that is lost and without hope. The offense has been the biggest culprit during this stretch as they are only average 3.1 runs per game. They've also experienced several bullpen implosions as closer Heath Bell has a 6.35 ERA on the season. The Marlins have lost their last seven games against left-handed starters and today they face on the league's best. The return of Utley should provide the spark to get this Phillies team rolling and it starts with a victory over the struggling Marlins today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #907 San Diego Padres over Houston Astros (8:05pm EST) In most people's eyes, the Houston Astros have exceeded expectations so far in 2012. Before the season, most had projected them as the worst team in baseball and penciled them in for close to 100 losses. But is this team really that much better than people expected right now? At 32-43 thru 75 games, the Astros are on pace to go 67-95 for a full season - not very far off from the 100 losses that everyone expected. And in their last 28 games, they are only 10-18 for a winning percentage of .357. So things are definitely headed in the wrong direction and they might just end up being the worst team in baseball when it's all said and done. The hitting is improved from last season, but they're still only ranked ninth in the National League. The bullpen, led by Brett Myers, started the season very strong but has been terrible lately. They now have a 4.55 ERA on the season, good enough for 13th in the league. Today's starter for Houston is rookie Dallas Keuchel. The 24-year old left-hander made his major league debut in Arlington 10 days ago and pitched well enough to keep the Rangers to just one run in five innings. He followed that up with a complete game performance against the Indians in which he only allowed one run again. That's not a bad start for a rookie, but he only has one way to go from there and that is down. Now that he has pitched a couple of quality games at the major league level, you can bet that the Padres will have him well-scouted and will be prepared in the batter's box against him. Keuchel didn't even pitch this well in the minor leagues this season as he had a 4.26 ERA in 13 starts - another reason to expect some regression.
It's been a tough road for the Padres this season, but there are some reasons for optimism. The team is 27-49 through 76 games, but they are 8-9 over their last 17 games and have been in nearly game in that stretch. Their improvement coincides with the return of Carlos Quentin from the disabled list. Quentin missed the first two months of the season with a knee injury, but since coming back he's hitting .325 with six home runs and 14 RBI. Clearly having him in the middle of the lineup makes it a more difficult lineup to navigate and helps the hitters around him. San Diego also has one of the better bullpens in the National League, which always seems to be the case. Another bright spot for the Padres this season comes from out of that bullpen and into the starting rotation. Andrew Cashner, who was acquired from the Chicago Cubs in the offseason, will make the start today. The right-hander pitched in the bullpen with the Cubs last year and in the beginning of this season for the Padres. However, the Padres think he has good enough stuff and a good variety of pitches to be more effective as a starter. And based on his recent results, I think they might be right. Cashner was sent to the minor leagues to be stretched out for his new role, and he simply dominated the competition. In three starts, he went 2-0 while posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. More importantly, he struck out 23 batters while only walking three. Cashner was a highly-rated prospect in the Cubs organization when he came up, and I think he will live up to those expectations as a member of the Padres.
The Padres are a playing a little bit better than what their current record indicates and the opposite can be said for the Astros. San Diego is the better team going forward and they also have the better youngster in this pitching matchup today. We'll gladly accept this underdog price tag on the Padres in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #961 New York Yankees over Washington Nationals (1:35pm EST) The weekend's best series is set to wrap up this afternoon in Washington D.C., where the New York Yankees look for the sweep against the Nationals. There was a lot of hype in the nation's capital about this series, as it was the most highly anticipated series that this city has seen since the team has relocated. For the Nationals, this series was about making a statement and validating their red hot start to the season against one of the American League's best. So far they have failed. They lost a heart-breaking game 5-3 yesterday in 14 innings. They had several chances to win in extra innings, but came up just short. Now they'll try to salvage the series today to avoid being swept by the Bronx Bombers.
Today's starters are Ivan Nova for the Yankees and Edwin Jackson for the Nationals. Nova remains one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League as he has much better stuff than his ERA indicates. He's shown great command this year and his strikeouts are way up from last year. If Nova were in the National League, I could see him being a top of the rotation kind of guy. Against a tough American League East division, he still holds his own. Edwin Jackson is about as erratic as they come. He has no-hitter kind of stuff on some days and on other days he can't get past the third inning. He'll go up against one of the toughest lineups in the major leagues today, and one that is very patient at the plate. That doesn't bode well for a pitcher like Jackson that loses his control at times. The Yankees walked nine times yesterday and they might be in line to get quite a few more today.
The Yankees are now 17-5 in their last 22 games and seem to be getting all of the breaks. I respect the Nationals as a good baseball team, but if they were in the American League I think they'd be in the middle of the pack. The Yanks have the better starting pitcher today, the better offense and the better bullpen. We get a near pick em price in a game that should be almost -130, which is great value on New York and the reason we made it our Game of the Day.

10-unit Play Take #952 New York Mets over Cincinnati Reds (7:10pm EST) The New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds as the two teams begin a three-game weekend series in CitiField. Nobody expected the Mets to compete this season as they were picked by nearly everyone to finish dead last in the National League East. But they currently find themselves at 35-29 in second place in their division after a very impressive three-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. One of the biggest surprises has been the production that the Mets have received from their lineup, which ranks fourth in runs scored in the National League. Despite having a handful of regulars on the disabled list for virtually the entire season, the Mets have received contributions from a few unlikely sources to put quite a few runs on the board. Now that they're getting healthy, this lineup has even more potential to keep producing at a high rate. Today's starter for the Mets is Dillon Gee. This is the second full season for the 26-year old right-hander and he's demonstrated that he's a very quick learner. Gee increased his strikeout rate over 30% from his rookie season and has reduced his walks by over 40%. He has also added percentage points to his groundball rate, which has helped to get him out of some jams. His ERA is roughly the same as it was last year at this point, but there's no question that Gee is much improved and his ERA will soon be dropping accordingly with his peripheral statistics.
It's been somewhat of a resurgence so far this season for Bronson Arroyo of the Reds. The 35-year old veteran had been declining in the past few years, but he seems to be bucking the trend a bit so far in 2012. Through 12 starts this season, Arroyo is 2-4 with a 3.79 after posting a 5.07 ERA last season. You generally don't see pitchers decline for several years in their mid-30's and all of a sudden break out of it. My guess is that we'll see the old Bronson Arroyo again soon and that the beginning of the season is more of a mirage. The Reds hitting has been disappointing this season at only 9th in the league in runs a year after finishing 2nd in runs scored. Besides Joey Votto, nobody in their lineup is having a very good season and they've struggled with runners in scoring position. Until someone else in the lineup emerges, you can't count on the Red's offense to carry this team.
The Mets have gone 16-5 in their last 21 games against a right-handed starter and have won 7 of 10 at home. New York has the better starting pitcher in this game as well as the better overall lineup. Add that to their home field advantage and all of a sudden you're betting a game at -125 that should be over -140. Take the Mets as we get excellent value in this spot.

10-unit Play Take #912 Baltimore Orioles over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles look for the sweep against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Camden Yards today. The O's won the first two games of the series 8-6 and 7-1 as they flexed their muscle at the plate. The Orioles continue to prove the skeptics wrong as they improved to 36-26 on the season, just one game out of first in the toughest division in baseball. It's clear by now that they aren't going anywhere anytime soon and will be contenders for the foreseeable future. The Orioles lineup also just got a boost as former All-Star second basemen Brian Roberts returned from the disabled list a couple of days ago and was inserted into the leadoff spot. While he isn't going to be the same player he once was, he still gives the O's a spark plug at the top of the order and is an upgrade at the position. Today's starter for Baltimore is Tommy Hunter. The 25-year old right-hander has had an up and down season, but he had a very encouraging start last time out against the Phillies. He went seven innings in that start allowing only three earned runs without issuing a walk. One of the keys to success for Hunter this season has been his increased groundball rate as he's finally starting to learn that keeping the ball on the ground will reduce his home run rate, which has been a problem for him in his career. I expect another quality start for Hunter today as he goes up against the worst lineup in baseball. The Pirates have been abysmal averaging only 3.2 runs per game on the season - dead last in the major leagues. They have four regulars batting under .230 and the only player having an above average season is Andrew McCutcheon.
The Orioles will face Pittsburgh starter Erik Bedard, who they should be pretty familiar with. Bedard pitched with the Orioles for the first five years of his career before arm injuries got the best of him. Bedard has tried to rejuvenate his career in Pittsburgh and is having a decent season at 4-6 with a 3.59 ERA. However, Bedard still may be battling an injury to his back as he was removed from a game on May 9 with back spasms after only one inning. Since that start, Bedard has a 4.88 ERA and a mediocre 24-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts. In his six starts prior to the injury, Bedard posted a 2.65 ERA and a 37-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It's not clear if he is still pitching through some pain or not, but he definitely isn't the same pitcher that he was earlier on in the season. The Orioles lineup is tough enough to face when you're on top of your game, but if you're struggling it's a very tall order. Baltimore has also hit left-handers very well this season and has won their last five games against southpaw starters. The Pirates better enjoy their 32-29 record, because I don't think they'll be above .500 for very much longer. Take the Orioles to get the sweep today as we should see another instance of the American League getting the best of the National League.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #953 New York Yankees over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) A new series starts today as the Atlanta Braves host the New York Yankees. These teams have nearly identical records, but with the disparity of the talent in the leagues it's safe to say that the Yankees are the much better overall team. The Yankees have also won 13 of their last 17 contests and have rocketed up the standings to within 0.5 games of first place in the difficult American League East division. Ivan Nova throws for New York in this one. Nova (7-2) is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league as his ERA is much higher than it should be based on all of his peripheral numbers. He's won three straight starts and always has his team in the ballgame. The Yankees have won 17 of their last 23 interleague games following their sweep of the rival Mets over the weekend. They've also won 12 of the last 17 against Atlanta overall.
Rookie Randall Delgado goes for the Braves today. Delgado has been solid in his rookie campaign, but this will be his toughest test yet. The Yankees are a very patient team and they run the counts deep to keep pressure on the opposing pitcher. Delgado has had spotty control at times, so there's a good chance that he finds himself in a couple of jams because of free passes. The Braves are only 10-21 in their last 31 games that are the first game of a series. That tells me that they're not preparing for their opponents very well in the scouting department. The Yankees have the better starting pitcher today, the better lineup and the better bullpen. With all of the advantages and the line at only -110, I like the Yankees in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #925 Texas Rangers over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm ET) It's the rubber game of the series this afternoon between the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants. These teams have identical records at 34-26 but are worlds apart as far as playing ability. Playing in the American League, the Rangers have much more difficult competition, but it's even more pronounced when you dig into the actual schedules. Based on run differentials, the Giants have played the easiest schedule in all of baseball so far in 2012 while the Rangers have faced the 6th toughest schedule overall. If the Rangers were in the NL West instead of the AL West, they'd likely be at least five or six games better than the Giants right now. The Rangers also currently own a +66 run differential while San Francisco's is only +10. The Rangers have struggled a bit in close games while the Giants have played better when the game is tighter. Those types of things generally regress towards the mean as the season goes on, so we'll see the Rangers pull away as long as they stay healthy.
The Rangers have a very dangerous lineup and are tops in baseball with 315 runs scored on the season. They also have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, evidenced by their 2.84 bullpen ERA that ranks second in the American League. Their problems have come in the starting rotation, where injuries and inconsistency have plagued them. As a result, relief pitcher Alexi Ogando has been placed into the rotation to help shore things up. Ogando was a member of the rotation last season and did really well in that role, but was bumped due to the promotion of Neftali Feliz at the beginning of the spring. Now with Feliz on the disabled list, Ogando has moved back into his familiar spot. The 28-year old right-hander is having a great season with a 2.27 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He's averaging 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and only allowing 2.0 walks per nine. I don't expect him to have any problem transitioning since he's been here before and knows what it takes to be a starting pitcher.
Tim Lincecum gets the ball for the Giants today in AT&T Park. Lincecum has been a hot topic of discussion all season long as he's struggled with consistency. He's 2-6 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.52 ERA in 2012 and clearly isn't the same Lincecum that we're all used to seeing. He's lost a couple of miles per hour off of his fastball and has really struggled with walks in almost every start this season at a rate of 4.8 per nine innings. That has led to some big innings against the former All-Star and there's no telling when he'll get things figured out. The Rangers are probably the last lineup you want to see when you're struggling this badly, as each batter in their lineup puts pressure on opposing pitchers. The Giants are 5-16 in Lincecum's last 21 stars overall. The Rangers are a better team than the Giants in every which way, and they should coast today with a struggling Lincecum going.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #972 Pittsburgh Pirates over Kansas City Royals (7:15pm ET) One of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball takes the mound in today's matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Kansas City Royals. Pittsburgh's James McDonald is having a great season at 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA but has been even better over his last eight starts. Over that stretch, the 27-year old right-hander is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and has a 65-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's always been a great talent, but it seems like he has finally put it all together and is an elite class now. He'll be facing a struggling Kansas City lineup today that has only averaged 2.7 runs over its last seven games. The Royals have been horrible all season with runners in scoring position and have missed out on tons of chances, which just goes along with being a young team sometimes.
The Pirates don't score very many runs either, but their offense has been producing of late. They've won four of their last five games and have averaged 5.4 runs over that stretch. They'll be going up against Kansas City right-hander Vin Mazzaro. Mazzaro wasn't supposed to be in the Royals rotation this season, but with injuries to Danny Duffy and Jonathan Sanchez, he was forced into action. He's pitched ok in his first two starts, but he only went five and six innings respectively, so the bullpen will likely be taxed a bit today. Mazzaro's biggest problem is that he doesn't strike many guys out and doesn't throw enough groundballs. That means a lot of balls are in the air, which is a dangerous proposition for any pitcher. The Royals are only 3-13 in their last 16 road interleague games. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 5-1 in their last six home interleague games. The combination of a red hot McDonald and a struggling Kansas City offense takes the pressure off the Pirates hitters. Pittsburgh won't have to score very many today and they should get an easy winner because of it. Take the Pirates as our Interleague Game.

10-unit Play Take #913 Tampa Bay Rays over Miami Marlins (7:10pm ET) It's the battle of Florida as the Miami Marlins host the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. Jeremy Hellickson of the Rays will face a Miami offense that was absolutely shut down in their last series against the Braves. Miami batted .172 in the series and were outscored 21-3 in the three games. The 25-year old right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.69 ERA on the season in his second full year with the Rays. There's definitely no sophomore slump for Hellickson as he's improved in every area of his game, including increasing his strikeout rate and decreasing his walks. This will be the first time Miami has seen Hellickson, which is going to make it a difficult spot for them today. In addition, Miami went 2-4 against Tampa Bay last season, and batted .159 while losing the last four meetings.
The Marlins will give the ball to Ricky Nolasco, who has surrendered 18 runs in 9 1/3 innings while losing his last three starts to the Rays. Nolasco isn't having a very good season in 2012 as his control has been spotty and he's turned in mediocre numbers as a result. He's given up at least three earned runs in each of his last five starts, and only one of them was a quality start. The Marlins are just 1-6 in Nolasco's last seven starts as a favorite. The Rays have dominated interleague play recently and are 13-6 in their last 19 games against the National League. The American League has continually shown that they are the superior league in interleague play and any time you can get an underdog price with a good American League squad you have to take a close look. I like the Rays in this one as they have a huge edge in the starting pitching department.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

9-unit Play Take #976 Kansas City Royals over Oakland A's (8:10pm ET) The Kansas City Royals host the Oakland A's tonight in the first of a three-game weekend series. The A's had a very good start to the 2012 season as they were 22-21 after their first 43 games. It was clear based on the numbers that the A's were overachieving, and they have dropped eight straight games since. The biggest problem for Oakland is the lack of production from the lineup. The A's are averaging only 3.2 runs per game, dead last in the American League. They've scored a total of 12 runs during their eight game skid and have been shutout three of those times. It won't get any easier for them today as they go up against a red hot pitcher for the Royals in Felipe Paulino. Paulino comes in with a 2.03 ERA on the season and is striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings. He is one of those pitchers that gets hot and cold, but he's definitely on fire right now making him a great play.
The Royals offense is very underrated as they are ranked 8th in OPS in the league, but have only scored the 11th most runs. Basically that means that they've been unlucky in situations with runners in scoring position or with two outs and runners on. That generally evens out over the course of a long season so we should see some improvement. They've scored 27 runs over their last five games (5.4 runs per game), so they're clearly already showing some signs. They get to face the 39-year old Bartolo Colon today. Colon has been bad over his last four starts with a 8.55 ERA and only two strikeouts in 20 innings. Colon has the reputation of not giving 100% effort if things aren't going well, so there's a good chance he doesn't break out of this slump right away with the A's struggling. The Royals have won four of their last five overall and I think they make it five out of six today against an A's team that looks helpless right now. Take Kansas City here as our MLB Game of the Day.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #969 Detroit Tigers over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm ET) Today's line on the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians definitely has me shaking my head a little bit. It's amazing that Ubaldo Jimenez of the Indians is still getting this much respect despite his horrendous start to the 2012 season. So far Jimenez has some of the worst pitching numbers in all of baseball with a 5.09 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in eight starts. He's also walking more batters than he strikes out on the season, which is an absolute recipe for disaster. Jimenez has had all sorts of problems with his mechanics ever since coming over to the Indians last year, which has affected him mentally and more importantly cut into this velocity on his fastball significantly. This is simply not the same pitcher that pitched for the Rockies, but the market somehow thinks that he's going to return to his old form as he's favored in this game.
Now when you look at Rick Porcello's numbers for the Tigers you might think he's been just as bad this season, but you'd be wrong. He does come in with a 5.12 ERA, but his WHIP is significantly lower at 1.40 and he actually has good peripheral statistics. Porcello's strikeout-to-walk ratio is at a career high at 3-1 and his velocity is way up from his previous seasons. He's given up an inordinate amount of home runs based on the number of fly balls he's served up, and that has artificially jacked up his ERA to an inflated level. There's no doubt in my mind that Porcello is at least a full run better than his current ERA and is a much better pitcher than Jimenez. Now the Tigers offense has underperformed this season, but they are still averaging more runs per game than the Indians are. And over their last six games, the Tigers have averaged 5.5 runs per game so there are signs that they're coming around. The Tigers has won 10 of the last 11 versus the Indians and they are 9-3 in Porcello's last 12 starts against them - two pretty strong trends. I have this line at about -120 for the Tigers so lots of value to be had on Detroit in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #952 Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Mets (7:05pm ET) We were successful jumping on the Pirates yesterday in the first game of the this series, and tonight's matchup looks like an even better opportunity. Starting pitcher James McDonald goes for Pittsburgh and he's raised his game to a brand new level this season. The 27-year old right-hander owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while increasing his strikeouts and reducing his walks to career best marks. One of the biggest problems for McDonald in the past was his confidence, but he seems to be extremely confident now especially over his last four starts. During that stretch McDonald has struck out 36 batters in 27 2/3 innings and has only walked seven. Two of those starts were on the road and he faced some decent opponents in those four games, so I don't consider it a fluke whatsoever. McDonald is also supported by a great bullpen that leads the National League in ERA at 2.48. The offense has obviously been the biggest problem for the Pirates but they do have some talented pieces and they can't perform any worse than they have so far.
As we discussed yesterday, the New York Mets are a little bit overrated at 22-20 on the season as their run differential is now at -32, which is worse than the Pirates. Their lineup is a mash unit right now and David Wright is single-handedly carrying the offense. If McDonald can focus on neutralizing Wright today, he should have no problems with the rest of the lineup. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey opposes the Pirates in this one. He's having a solid season but he obviously doesn't dominate anyone with a knuckleball. He's had a rough time of it on the road this season with a 5.40 ERA away from New York. The Mets really need their starting pitchers to go deep into games due to their poor bullpen, and that puts extra pressure on them to perform. The Mets bullpen ERA is 5.11, which is dead last in the National League and no one can really be counted on. Pittsburgh is a solid home team at 11-8 this year and has always been a lot better in PNC Park than they have been on the road. With the way McDonald's pitching this season and with the #1 bullpen behind him, I don't think the Mets will get too many runs to cross the plate. If the Pirates can knock Dickey out relatively early and get into that Mets pen, they should take this game rather easily. That was the blueprint yesterday and they were successful. Take the Pirates as we look to cash a ticket on them two games in a row.

10-unit Play Take #911 Miami Marlins over Cleveland Indians (4:05pm ET) The Miami Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball after getting off to a slow start on the 2012 campaign. They've won 13 of their last 17 games and are finally playing like the team that everyone thought they could be when they made all of their blockbuster acquisitions in the offseason. It's been a great team effort as their hitting is finally coming around, the starting pitching has been great and even the bullpen situation has finally been worked out. Today's starter for the Marlins Anibal Sanchez is pitching about as well as anyone in the major leagues right now. In his seven starts, Sanchez has a 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and has struck out 51 batters while only walking 12. He's been consistently dominate as he hasn't given up more than three runs in any start and has pitched at least six innings in every start.
The Cleveland Indians come into this game at 22-17, but they've been extremely fortunate in getting there. They have a -4 run differential on the year and have been good in close games. They started out very similarly last season and came crashing back down to earth in a hurry. It probably won't be as drastic as a fall this season, but you can certainly expect some regression. I don't like today's starter Jeanmar Gomez too much as he's been inconsistent and is still trying to find his way in the major leagues. He's going to need to be close to perfect today against a red hot Marlins team since Sanchez is on the mound, and I don't think he'll be able to handle it. Take the streaking Marlins today at a very favorable price.

4-unit Play Take #951 St. Louis Cardinals over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers in the only non-Interleague matchup this weekend. Both teams have gotten off to great starts this season and are at the top of their respective divisions. The Cardinals have also been hampered by injuries for a good part of the season without arguably their top two players - Lance Berkman and Chris Carpenter. But Berkman is back in the lineup now and Carpenter's replacement has been dominating the National League and takes the ball today. Lance Lynn was given the opportunity to fill some big shoes when Carpenter was injured in the spring, and he has come through in a huge way. Lynn leads the league with six wins and has a miniscule 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his seven starts. He has also amassed a 44-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has clearly demonstrated that he belongs in the starting rotation. It will be an interesting decision to make once Carpenter returns, but for now Lynn will continue to be one of the best pitchers in the league.
The Dodgers have gotten bit by the injury bug lately and it's definitely slowed them down. Early frontrunner for the MVP Matt Kemp is on the 15-day disabled list, along with Juan Rivera and Juan Uribe. That's three missing starters for a team that isn't very deep to begin with. The loss of Kemp is probably bigger than any other team could have as he provides so much offensively and makes the hitters around him so much better. Ted Lilly has a tough task for the Dodgers today as he knows he needs to keep the Cardinals offense at bay because the Dodger offense isn't healthy. Unfortunately for him, the Cardinals are the best hitting team in the league and average 5.5 runs per game. The Cardinals lineup is deep and they don't give you any room for error as everyone is an above-average major league hitter. I think they'll be too much to handle for a struggling Lilly and the Cardinals should come out on top tonight.

10-unit Play Take #929 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) The Detroit Tigers have not lived up to expectations yet this season. At 16-15, they have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball and for good reason. Their offense hasn't hit, their bullpen has imploded several times and their team defense is mediocre at best. The one bright spot has been their starting pitching. Their starters have kept them in most of their games and without them they'd be abysmal. Rick Porcello is one of those guys and he takes the ball today. Porcello's numbers aren't that pretty upon first glance, but he gets the job done. He has a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, but his peripheral numbers point to a pitcher who should have an ERA in the 3's. Porcello has increased his velocity on his fastball, increased his groundball rate and is walking almost a full batter less than he did last season. He's still only 23 years old but it's clear that he's starting to figure things out. And this is the time to back Porcello - before he starts putting up great numbers and the market catches on to him. Then it's too late.
The A's have some major problems offensively and it's not going to help that their best player might be out for this one. Centerfielder Yoenis Cespedes is listed as questionable, but he has missed the last few games and could land on the disabled list with a hand injury. He's the only player in the A's lineup that can be considered above average as the A's offense ranks 13th in the American League. Tonight's pitcher for the A's Tom Milone is a finesse type pitcher who throws strikes but doesn't overwhelm you. The Tigers saw a similar pitcher last night in Bartolo Colon so there shouldn't be much of an adjustment in the approach for them.
The good news for the Tigers is that their offense and bullpen are going to improve. They really can't get much worse based on their talent and it's only a matter of time before they turn things around. Last night was a step in the right direction as the Tigers put 10 runs on the board in a victory against Oakland in the first game of the series. The A's are outmatched in this one again and this line is at a very reasonable level to pull the trigger on Detroit.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #968 Detroit Tigers over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm ET) There's no question that the Detroit Tigers have let their fans down so far in 2012. Almost everyone had pegged the Tigers to run away and hide in the American League Central division after adding Prince Fielder to a team that already won 95 games last year. However, the Tigers started out very slow last season at 12-17 before things started to click. This team is extremely talented and is going to eventually get things going this year too - I have no doubt. One of the few bright spots on the team so far this season has been rookie Drew Smyly. The 22-year old left-hander has dominated the American League in his first four starts of his career with a 1.23 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 22 innings. He has great mound presence and should be a fixture in the Detroit rotation for years to come. This will be the first time the White Sox have seen him, which should give Smyly the leg up for at least the first couple of times through the batting order.
The White Sox counter with Jake Peavy, who has put together a very nice season of his own so far. He's 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and has seemed to regain his old form that he had with the Padres. However, the Tigers did face him a few weeks back when these teams met in Chicago and that should be helpful for Detroit hitters. Teams that face the same starter twice in a short period of time generally perform a little bit better as they can adjust to his stuff quicker. The White Sox are only averaging 4.00 runs per game on the season and they are going to struggle to plate runs all year. They have a lot of holes in the lineup and rely far too heavily on Paul Konerko, who is a streaky hitter in his own right. The Tigers have had their struggles at the plate as well this season, but that's more of an aberration that anything else as they have two studs in the middle of the lineup and some pretty good supporting cast members. With the much better offense, a strong home field advantage and a draw as far as starting pitchers go, the Tigers have the edge in this matchup.

10-unit Play Take #972 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (4:05pm ET) The New York Yankees look to take another one from the Detroit Tigers this afternoon in the Bronx. Last night the Yankees roughed up ace Justin Verlander and scored a couple of late runs against the Tigers bullpen to get the victory 7-6. Today the Yankees will get a much easier test in rookie Drew Smyly. The young left-hander has made a statement in his first three starts with a 1.13 ERA in his 16 innings pitched. However, he did find himself in some trouble in each of his starts but was able to avoid disaster by pitching well with runners on base. Eventually that will catch up with him and the Yankees lineup will put him to the test today. The Yanks hit left-handers very well and they are patient enough to take what Smyly gives them. Yankee Stadium is a tough place to pitch and being a rookie, I'm sure Smyly will have some jitters early on.
The Tigers have been in absolute funk dropping five straight and seven of their last eight games. Their starting pitching has been bad and the bullpen certainly hasn't done them any favors. Offensively they've gotten plenty of chances, but just haven't been able to cash in with runners on base. Several Tiger hitters are mired in a slump. Going into Yankees Stadium and getting a win is tough, but when you're already scuffling it's even harder. Freddy Garcia pitches for New York today and although his ERA is sky-high at 11+, his peripheral numbers are good and you know exactly what you'll get from the veteran. He'll keep the Yankees in it and put in enough innings to turn it over to the back end of the bullpen. With Detroit struggling and a rookie on the mound in Yankee Stadium, I like New York to get a win.

10-unit Play Take #907 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm ET) There's no question that the Philadelphia Phillies are a completely different team offensively without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They actually weren't all that impressive last year when they ranked 7th in the National League at 4.4 runs per game. This year, however, they are downright awful at 2.9 runs per game which ranks them 15th in the league ahead of only the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. They're obviously not going to be quite this bad all year, but they've managed to stay in most ballgames due to their excellent starting pitching. Today they have one of the hottest pitchers in the league on the mound in Cole Hamels. The 28-year old lefty is in a contract year and he's certainly pitching like it. In his first three starts of the season, Hamels has baffled hitters with 23 strikeouts and only 2 walks in 18 1/3 innings. His ERA is at 2.95 currently but should be even lower based on his peripheral numbers. The way he's pitching right now you immediately think shutout when he takes the ball.
Despite their poor numbers on the season, the Phillies' bats have woke up a bit in this series as they have put 13 runs on the board in the first two games combined. Tonight they'll have the Diamondbacks' Trevor Cahill. Cahill came over from the A's in the offseason and while he's put up decent numbers thus far, he doesn't look 100% comfortable on the mound and his velocity is down from last season. Part of it might be adjusting to a new team and new league, so it might just take time for him to get comfortable. In the meantime, the Phillies can take advantage as they look to build some momentum offensively. If Hamels pitches like he has been, he should be able to go seven or eight innings in this game and eventually hand it to one of the best closers in the game - Jonathan Papelbon. The Phillies should only need to put a couple of runs on the scoreboard to take this one and I think they'll be able to do that off of Cahill. Take Philadelphia as our Game of the Day.

10-unit Play Take Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays meet the Toronto Blue Jays in what should be an interesting game. Right-hander Jeff Niemann pitches for the Rays and I think he might be one of the most underrated pitchers in the American League. His career ERA has hovered around 4.00, but he has great stuff and has the misfortune of facing the great offenses in the American League East for nearly half of his starts. He has had some really good peripheral stats recently and looks like he could be ready to break out. He pitched a lot better than his ERA indicated in his first start of the season at Detroit where he allowed three runs in five innings. He struck out six batters while yielding only two walks and hour hits. Toronto is not as good against right-handed pitching and their best hitter, Jose Bautista, is struggling a little bit as well.
The Blue Jays counter with left-hander Ricky Romero. Romero has great stuff and many people think he can be a Cy Young candidate this season. I don't think he's quite put it all together quite yet though. He pitched decent in his first two starts, but Tampa Bay excels against lefties and this will be a tough assignment for him today. So far on the young season, Tampa is batting .311 against lefties and is averaging 5.32 runs per game. The Rays are 6-2 in their last eight meetings in Toronto and I think they get the job done again today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #912 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:10pm ET) The Colorado Rockies are riding high after a 8-7 comeback win in the bottom of the ninth against the Arizona Diamondbacks last night. Todd Helton hit a two-run walk-off home run to win to give the Rockies their third win of the season. It's going to be a tough one to forget for D-Backs closer J.J. Putz, who was one out away from getting the save. Arizona will try and come back from that one with Trevor Cahill today. Cahill was acquired in a trade with Oakland in the offseason and there have been some questions about his arm ever since coming over. His velocity was down in the spring and he had some major control problems in his first start of the season versus San Diego allowing six walks. It can be tough for some pitchers to adjust to a new league, so it may just take a little bit of time for Cahill to get it going. In the meantime, he is definitely a bet-against pitcher.
The Rockies will go with rookie Drew Pomeranz this afternoon. Pomeranz had an amazing spring in which he posted a 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in five starts. He was untouchable but the Rockies decided to skip his turn in the rotation due to off days to give his arm some rest and keep his innings down for the season. As a result, this will be his first start of the 2011 season. He got a taste of the big leagues last year when he started four games, but he's likely here to stay now and has a very bright future. He has demonstrated great command at the minor league level and has some nice groundball tendencies for a youngster. Over the last decade or so, the Rockies have been the best home team in baseball relative to their road performance. Their definitely is a big difference playing in the thin air of the higher altitudes and Rockies always seemingly use it to their advantage. This will be the first time the Diamondbacks will see Pomeranz, so that will be a huge edge for Colorado as well. Add in the momentum from last night and a struggling Cahill, and everything adds up to a play on Colorado as our Game of the Day.

10-unit Play Take #911 Milwaukee Brewers over Atlanta Braves (7:35pm ET) The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Atlanta Braves in the first of a three-game set tonight. Things have not started out well for the Braves so far in the early season as they've stumbled out of the gate with a 2-4 record. One of the biggest problems has been their lack of production and endurance from their starting pitchers. In Atlanta's first six games, no starting pitcher has worked more than five innings. The Braves bullpen was heavily taxed last year, and they're already starting that trend again this season. While that may not affect them as much early in the season, it is still a huge red flag. Today's starter Jair Jurrjens worked less than five innings in his first start in New York against the Mets. His velocity is down and he appears as if he still isn't fully recovered from the injuries he endured last year. It wouldn't surprise me if a DL stint is in the cards for Jurrjens at some point very soon, but we'll probably get a few bad starts out of him that we can take advantage of first.
The Brewers have opened the season at 4-3 and are still adjusting to life without Prince Fielder. This team still has a very capable lineup that is going to be in the upper half of the National League in runs scored when all is said and done. Mat Gamel won't produce at the same level as Fielder at first base, but he's definitely underrated, and the addition of Aramis Ramirez is going to increase the production at third base by a wide margin. This team also has lots of speed and runs the bases very well, which are underappreciated skills that win you ball games. The biggest strength of this team is the back end of their bullpen. That group was devastatingly good last season and they're all back again this year. Today's starter is left-hander Randy Wolf. The 35-year old veteran put together a very nice 2011 season with a 3.69 ERA and 13-10 mark. He had a great spring and a very solid first start of the season, so there's no reason to believe that he can't replicate last year's success with the Brewers. We have a huge edge in starting pitching today and a huge edge offensively for the Brewers. As a result, I think the bookmakers have the wrong team favored in this one. As a result, take Milwaukee as our Game of the Day.

10-unit Play Take #973 Kansas City Royals over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) Interesting matchup between two youngsters today as the Kansas City Royals take on the Oakland A's.Left-hander Danny Duffy has been a highly touted prospect of the Royals for a couple of years now and he has finally earned a full-time spot in the rotation. He struggled last season in half of a season when he posted a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. However, he showed some signs of greatness and came back in the spring this year and pitched extremely well. He seems like a quick learner and I expect him to get off to a fast start. Going up against Oakland is a nice way to ease into the season as they have a lot of holes in their lineup. In Oakland's first five games, they've only scored 16 runs total and are relying on young starting pitching and a decent bullpen. Meanwhile, the Royals looked impressive taking two out of three from the Angels over the weekend. Many of the experts are saying that this Royals team is ready to break out and compete in the American League Central, so there's finally a buzz in Kansas City.
Oakland counters with 27-year old Graham Godfrey. The right-hander broke into the majors for the first time last year pitching in five games. He wasn't projected to make the rotation this year, but injuries to two of Oakland's starters moved up his timetable and he probably isn't quite ready yet. The Royals lineup is still pretty young, but they do have a lot of talent and some guys who can mash. Knowing that you won't have a lot of run support puts extra pressure on Godfrey that he doesn't need. The Royals have the better starting pitcher today and the slightly better team so we'll gladly scoop them up as an underdog tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #965 San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10pm ET) The Arizona Diamondbacks go for the sweep today against the San Francisco Giants after winning two tight games on Friday and Saturday. These teams are pretty evenly matched and it should be a good race in the National League West all season long. I know it's early, but this is the first important game for the Giants as they don't want to get off to an 0-3 start against their chief division rival. They have the right guy on the mound to turn things around in Matt Cain. The 27-year old just signed the richest contract for a right-handed pitcher ever and now he gets his chance to prove that he is worth it. He had an excellent spring and looks like he is completely locked in already. It will be hard to repeat his season last year when he posted a 2.88 ERA, but he's entering his prime and has all of the tools. The Giants are also going to score a lot more runs this season with Buster Posey back for an entire season and the arrival of rookie Brandon Belt. Their offense last year was record-breaking bad and this year they take a huge leap forward to being a middle-of-the-pack type offense.
The Diamondbacks had a great surprise season last year but they're not going to sneak up on anybody this time around. They got career years from a few guys last year and you can't count on that again. Josh Collmenter pitches for the D-Backs today and he has had a rocky spring. He has been experiencing some forearm tightness and it's translated into poor results on the mound. He had a gaudy 9.95 ERA in Spring Training and only struck out six batters in 19 innings. He has extra pressure on him to perform because phenom Trevor Bauer is waiting in the wings in the minor leagues, and he can be brought up at any moment. I would be surprised if Collmenter lasts past the fifth inning today, as the Giants lineup is no longer a joke. Take San Francisco and Matt Cain at a gift of a price for our Game of the Day.

The 2012 regular season kicks off tonight in an international style, as the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's clash in Tokyo, Japan. It's been a long anticipated start to the season as we've had quite an offseason with plenty of player movement, drama and intrigue. Every team's fans are filled with renewed hope at the start of the season and that's a good thing for the teams tonight. Both the Mariners and A's are in rebuilding mode and it's safe to say that neither team has a real shot at the post-season this year with the heavyweights in the American League.

However, I really like the team that the Mariners have started to build with plenty of young talent in the everyday lineup. The highly-touted Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp all had a decent amount of at bats last year as they broke into Seattle's lineup. They'll be the nucleus of the team in the future along with Jesus Montero, who was acquired in a trade with the Yankees in the offseason. While none of these players are even close to their primes yet, this offense isn't going to be as putrid as it has been in the last few seasons with this kind of talent. The Mariners are also anchored on their pitching staff by Felix Hernandez, today's starting pitcher. King Felix has earned his nickname as he's been one of the best in the American League for the last five years. He loves the spotlight and that suits him perfectly tonight as he'll be pitching in front of a huge crowd at the Tokyo Dome. There's no question that the Mariners will have some home field advantage tonight as Japan is in love with Ichiro. He is a national hero and one of the most famous people in the country despite playing in Seattle. It seems like the Mariners have been really looking forward to coming to Japan ever since the break of camp in February, and this is a big series for them with all of the Japanese media attention that has been around this team for quite some time.

For the Oakland A's, on the other hand, things aren't quite as exciting. They are definitely in the rebuilding phase as well, but there's not nearly as much talent on this roster at this point and it's clear that this team is a few years away from being competitive. They did make a huge splash in the offseason by bringing in Yoenis Cespedes from Cuba, but he's very raw and probably isn't going to be very productive right away. Tonight's starter for Oakland is Brandon McCarthy. He's had a rocky spring and recently had an issue with his middle fingernail on his right hand, so we could see some control issues from him if he wasn't able to address it properly. It doesn't seem like the A's are quite as excited about this two-game series in Japan as the Mariners are. With King Felix pitching and a talented young lineup behind him, I think the Mariners are a much better team than the A's. Throw in the Japan angle and some home field advantage because of it, and I think the Mariners are clearly the play tonight.

10-unit Play Take #964 St. Louis Cardinals (-115) over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals have their proverbial backs against the wall in Game 6 of the World Series tonight. But they definitely have the right guy on the mound tonight as Jamie Garcia takes the ball in an effort to keep the Cardinals alive. Garcia has been amazing at home this season with a 2.55 ERA in Busch Stadium. He pitched great in Game 2 against the Rangers, going seven full innings and not allowing a single run in a game the Cardinals eventually squandered in the ninth inning. In that game, Garcia only allowed three hits and a walk while striking out seven in his seven innings of work. He will once again be opposed by right-hander Colby Lewis for the Rangers. Lewis pitched pretty well in Game 2 as well, but did get into some trouble.
Overall, the Cardinals have played better than the Rangers in this series and it's unfortunate that they're down 3-2. They have scored more runs than the Rangers, have outhit the Rangers and have simply been the better team. The linesmakers still don't think they are the better team and we'll take advantage of it today. The Cardinals will be in desperation mode and I think they will focus well tonight and get the win.

10-unit Play Take #953 Atlanta Braves over Florida Marlins (7:10pm ET) The Atlanta Braves head into Miami to take on the Florida Marlins in the first of a very important three-game series. The Cardinals are hot on the heels of the Braves, and are now sitting only 3.5 games back in the wild card race. Every game from here on out is the most important of the season for the Braves to maintain their lead. Today's matchup features rookie left-hander Mike Minor. In his 13 starts this season, Minor has gone 5-2 with a 4.11 ERA and has filled in nicely when the Braves needed it most. He wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation this season, but injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson have forced the Braves to promote some of the youngsters a little early and it has worked out. The Marlins send right-hander Ricky Nolasco to the mound to oppose the Braves. Nolasco is 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA and has never got on track this year. These two pitchers squared off against one another last week in Atlanta and Minor got the best of it in a 4-1 Braves victory.
The Marlins offense has struggled mightily of late, averaging only 2.39 runs per game in their last 10 contests. They've had quite a few players banged up recently, including a season-ending injury to shortstop Hanley Ramirez and a lingering hamstring injury to outfielder Mike Stanton. It's hard to imagine that the team is very motivated right now as they sit in the cellar in the National League East division at 69-84. The Marlins are also 17-38 in their last 55 home games. They've been lucky to draw even 5,000 fans per game lately, so the support is definitely not there for the team. The Braves are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a road favorite. This is an important game for the Braves and I expect them to deliver. Take the Braves at a short price today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #963 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) The magic number for the Arizona Diamondbacks is only eight as they look for another win against the Los Angeles Dodgers today. The Diamondbacks have been the surprise story of baseball this season as they have taken control of the National League West division and are heading to the playoffs barring a miracle run by the Giants. Many of the so-called experts had predicted a last place finish for Arizona, but they have silenced all of their critics. At 85-62, the team is now trying to secure the #2 seed in the National League so they can gain home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs.
Right-hander Ian Kennedy pitches for the D-backs today and he is a legitimate Cy Young candidate at 19-4 with a 2.90 ERA on the campaign. It's certainly been a breakout season for Kennedy but he still hasn't received the amount of attention he deserves, especially by the linesmakers. But that's ok, as we'll take advantage of that in this one. The Dodgers go with right-hander Chad Billingsley to oppose the Diamondbacks. Billingsley is having a mediocre season and has been struggling even more as of late. In his last four starts, he has a 6.30 ERA and has walked 13 batters in only 20 innings. And none of those starts were against great lineups. The Diamondbacks lineup will be much more challenging as they're the 9th ranked offense in baseball and have been averaging 5.58 runs per game in their last 10. The Dodgers offense is only ranked 23rd and they are without the services of stud outfielder Andre Ethier, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.
The Dodgers are only 36-35 at home this season while the Diamondbacks are an excellent 40-35 away from home. So the fact that this game is in Dodger Stadium doesn't provide as much of an advantage as it should. The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a road favorite and 23-9 in their last 32 games overall. The line on this game should be much higher for an ace pitcher like Kennedy, so we'll take the Diamondbacks at an extremely generous price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #965 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm ET) Two of the National League's best starting pitchers face off in today's matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants. Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers faces Tim Lincecum of the Giants. Kershaw will get heavy Cy Young consideration this season as he is 17-5 with a 2.45 ERA and is among the leaders in strikeouts. Without him it's hard to imagine where the Dodgers would be this season. He's broken several losing streaks for the team and has salvaged many series for the Dodgers when they otherwise would have been swept. In addition, he's one of the most consistent starters in baseball. Lincecum knows what it's like to win the Cy Young, but this season hasn't been a normal one for him. While he's put up a very respectable 2.75 ERA, he's only 12-12 and has lost control of the strike zone at many different times. In his last three starts, Lincecum has yielded 12 walks and given up 10 earned runs, all of which were at home. Clearly he's not the old Lincecum, and he's in the middle of a slump.
Offensively speaking, the Dodgers have a significant leg up on the Giants. The Dodgers offense is nothing special, besides of course MVP-candidate Matt Kemp, as they only average 3.97 runs per game. But over their last 20 games, they've averaged 5.90 runs per game and have been winning games handily. On the other hand, the Giants offense is not only the worst offense in baseball, it's the worse offense in decades. The Giants only average 3.35 runs per game and they have been even worse of late. On top of that, they have several key players that are out or questionable for this one. The Giants are 2-12 in the first game of the series in their last 14 tries. They are also deflated after basically being knocked out of the National League West race, and it's not likely they'll be fully focused. The Dodgers have the better starting pitcher and much better offense in this game and are tabbed as the underdogs by the linesmakers. The value is with the Dodgers for my Game of the Week.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take New York Mets/Florida Marlins UNDER 8 (7:10pm ET) Today's game between the New York Mets and the Florida Marlins features two starting pitchers that have been on a roll and two offenses that aren't quite the same as they were earlier in the season. When you add it all up, it's a great opportunity for an Under to hit today. Left-hander Chris Capuano starts for the Mets in this matchup. Capuano has started to find a nice groove in his last couple of starts and seems like he has returned to his old form where he was an All-Star with the Brewers. In his last couple of starts he's posted a 1.29 ERA and has a 17-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, including a complete game shutout against the Atlanta Braves. The Florida Marlins go with right-hander Javier Vazquez, who has been a different pitcher since the middle of June. In this last 14 starts, Vazquez has allowed more than three earned runs only once and his ERA is a stellar 2.44. He too has regained some of his dominance from previous seasons he had with the Braves and Expos.
Neither one of the lineups for these teams is great, but they're not terrible either - definitely middle of the pack. However, one thing for sure is that they aren't as potent as they were earlier in the season. Gone from the Mets lineup is Carlos Beltran, who departed to San Francisco, and Daniel Murphy, who suffered a season-ending knee injury. Jose Reyes has also been out of the lineup off and on due to injuries and there's no telling if he is truly 100%. The Marlins lineup is minus Hanley Ramirez, who has called it quits this season after a nagging shoulder injury, and Mike Stanton is questionable today. These are all key players that will definitely impact the total in today's game. With two hot starting pitchers going today, it's hard to envision a lot of runs crossing the plate. In these teams' last six meetings, the record for the Under is 5-1. I'll call for another here today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #912 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (2:20pm ET) The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates today and try to avoid a three-game sweep in Wrigley Field. The Cubs send right-hander Randy Wells to the mound today to stop the bleeding and he's stepped up for the team lately. The 29-year old went 0-3 with a 7.38 ERA in his first nine starts after returning from injury this year, but he's gone 5-1 with a 3.42 ERA over his last eight outings, holding opponents to a .214 average during that span. In his last outing against the Giants, Wells threw a complete game shutout, allowing only two hits and a walk. His confidence is sky-high now and he's seemed to regain the form he has two years ago when he won 10 games as a rookie with a 3.05 ERA. The Cubs are 7-0 in Well's last seven starts with five days of rest, which he has today.
Charlie Morton opposes the Cubs in today's matchup and has hasn't been himself of late. After starting the season strong, Morton has lost some of his control and isn't throwing as hard. Morton has lost back-to-back starts for the first time all season while compiling an 8.38 ERA. I've been fading Morton over his last few starts and it's paid off. He also doesn't fare as well on the road as the Pirates are only 7-24 in Morton's last 31 starts dating back to last season. Morton has had a rough time against the Cubs in his career with a 5.68 ERA in five appearances. Neither the Cubs nor the Pirates have been hitting the ball well lately as both teams have averaged fewer than four runs for the last couple of weeks. On the season, the Cubs are the better overall hitting team and with all of their guys healthy, definitely put out the more formidable lineup. With the starting pitcher in better current form, the better lineup and playing at home, the Cubs should be a much bigger favorite in this one. The value is definitely with the Cubs and that's why this is the Game of the Week.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #967 Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers (8:05pm ET) Today's game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers offers up a perfect blend of great pitching and great hitting. The great pitching starts with Tampa Bay's Jeff Niemann. The right-hander continues to dominate as he is 8-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 12 starts. Over that stretch he's faced many tough lineups - Boston twice, New York, Toronto, Detroit, Milwaukee and St. Louis. It's clear that Niemann isn't just some flash in the pan and that he's reached a new level. Today he'll go against another tough lineup in the Rangers. Texas is a great hitting team wherever they are, but are excellent in Arlington where they average 6.12 runs per game. However, they are without power-hitting outfielder Nelson Cruz for this one.
The Rangers starter today is left-hander C.J. Wilson. Wilson is 13-6 with a 3.29 ERA in 2011, but he hasn't fared as well against some of the better hitting lineups. Against the American League East, Wilson is 2-5 in his last seven starts. The Rays feast on left-handed pitching, averaging 4.86 runs per game. They've also been playing well of late and may have fooled themselves into thinking that they can catch the Yankees or Red Sox for a wild card spot. The Rangers are very good at home with a 43-28 record, but the Rays are one of the best road teams in baseball with a 39-30 mark. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out with two quality pitchers and offenses. I can envision a 2-1 pitcher's duel or a 9-8 hitter's fest. Either way, I think the Tampa Bay Rays come out on top.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

3-unit Play Take #902 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego Padres (3:10pm ET) Today's afternoon matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres features starting pitchers that are on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Dodgers' Ted Lilly is back to his old self after struggling with an injury for the first part of the season. The crafty left-hander has an impressive 2.20 ERA in his last five starts to go along with his 28-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. On the other hand, San Diego's Wade LeBlanc has struggled for most of the season between the minor leagues and the big leagues. The southpaw is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA on the season and nearly half of his starts have been in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He probably isn't major league starter material yet but the Padres are giving him a chance to get some experience as they are out of contention.
The Dodgers offense has been hitting on all cylinders lately, a far cry from how they've been hitting for most of the season. Over their last 12 games they have averaged 6.41 runs per game, most of which has come on the road. They've been led by MVP-candidate Matt Kemp who has posted sensational numbers and has been on a tear of late. Kemp is batting .321 with 31 home runs, 101 RBI, 87 runs scored and 35 stolen bases, and there are still close to 30 games remaining on the schedule. The Padres offense has been plain bad all season long, but the last six games have been especially challenging. In five of their last six contests the Padres have scored either 0 or 1 runs. The Dodgers are 19-5 in their last 24 games as a favorite while the Padres are 7-16 in their last 23 games as a road underdog. The Dodgers are clearly the better team in today's matchup and they should be able to get the job done in Dodger Stadium this afternoon.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #958 Houston Astros over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:05pm ET) The Houston Astros take on the Pittsburgh Pirates today in the second game of a series that doesn't count for much more than pride (unless of course there's money to be made). The Houston Astros have been sitting in the basement of the National League Central for the entire baseball season. They are currently 45-90, which is the worst record in all of baseball. However, they've been playing baseball a lot differently of late than they did earlier in the season. They brought up a handful of minor leaguers up to the bigs, several of which were immediately placed into the everyday lineup. The thought was that the Astros would get a chance to see these guys place so they could gauge their talent for next season and the future. But a funny thing happened along the way - the Houston Astros actually started winning with a team filled with minor leaguers. They've been hitting a lot better, pitching much better and have an overall better attitude. While they haven't necessarily been playing like a first place major league team, the Astros have been very competitive over the last couple of weeks. Over their last 13 games, Houston is 7-6 and they have played the Giants in two separate series as well as the Cubs and Rockies. The youth has rejuvenated this squad and it has certainly showed as this is the team's best stretch of the 2011 season.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, on the other hand, have been spiraling out of control ever since they had a brief taste of first place in the National League Central back in mid-July. Since then they have gone 11-28 and have struggled offensively and on the mound. The pressure of winning got to the Pirates and they have proved that they're not quite ready to make that next step. Today's starter for Pittsburgh, Charlie Morton, has put together a very nice season at 9-7 with a 3.63 ERA. However, he hasn't looked the same in his last six or seven starts. He has struggled with his control and seems to be losing some velocity. There could be an underlying injury or his season pitch count be beginning to take its toll on him. Whatever the case, Morton isn't right. The Astros counter with right-hander Henry Sosa. The 26-year old is making his fifth start of the season and has been pretty good so far. He hasn't surrendered more than four earned runs in any of his outings and has kept his team in each game. He faces a Pirates team that is 23rd in the major leagues in scoring runs and that has lost its focus at the plate over the last six weeks.
There's some enthusiasm in Houston and definitely some hope for the future. The team is playing well and is having some fun for the first time all season. The Pirates find themselves sliding further and further in the National League Central and haven't been competitive for quite some time. The Astros are the underdog in this matchup, but it sure seems like they should be the favorite.

10-unit Play Take #976 Texas Rangers over Los Angeles Angels (8:05pm ET) For the second time in as many weeks, the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers hook up in a crucial series that will help decide the American League West division. The Rangers got the best of the Angels last time around as they won 3 out of 4 games and nearly swept the series if it weren't for a walk-off home run. In the first game of this series, Dan Haren takes the ball for the Angels. Haren didn't face the Rangers last time, but he did a little over a month ago and was shelled for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. The right-hander has pieced together a nice season but the innings and pitch count are starting to get high for the veteran who has a history of breaking down in the final stretch of the season. Only three pitchers in all of baseball have thrown more pitches than Haren, all of them considerably younger. With the pressure-packed intensity in today's matchup, the pitches may weigh more heavily on an overused right arm. Not that a potent Ranger lineup needs much of an edge being ranked the third best offense in baseball, but they'll certainly take it today.
The Rangers are very difficult to beat at home because they average 6.24 runs per game in Arlington and are accustomed to triple-digit temperatures night in and night out. For the 2011 season, Texas is 40-25 at home. Derek Holland pitches for Texas tonight and he is 11-5 on the season with a 4.42 ERA. He's won five of his last six decisions and seems to be locating his pitches much better than he did earlier in the season. He beat the Angels last week and nearly went the distance holding the Halos to only three runs. Last week Texas almost put the Angels away for good in the American League West, but this weekend they put the nails in the coffin. It starts with a win tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #919 Seattle Mariners over Tampa Bay Rays (7:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners invade Tampa Bay to take on the Rays in the first of a three-game weekend set. Since they ended their 18-game losing streak roughly three weeks back, the Mariners are actually playing decent baseball. They're 10-9 since July 27th in a stretch that included series with the Yankees, Angels, Rangers, Blue Jays and Red Sox - not exactly easy pickings, but they've held their own. They've been hitting the ball much better and playing better fundamental baseball overall. Today's starter is one of the best in all of baseball - Felix Hernandez. The young right-hander has been dominating American League hitters for over six years and will for years to come. Due to lack of run support, Hernandez is only 11-10 with a 3.38 ERA in his 26 starts in 2011. However, he is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball and has gone at least five innings in every one of his starts this year. The Rays struggle against right-handers and have had very little luck again King Felix over his career. Hernandez has lost to the Rays only once in eight starts and has posted a 2.28 ERA.

Tampa Bay sends youngster Wade Davis to the hill in today's matchup. Davis was a prized possession in the Rays system for quite some time before coming up with the big club for good two years ago. However, instead of improving on his pitching since he has come up to the majors, Davis has been slowly regressing. He's 8-7 with a 4.60 ERA this season and has seen his strikeout rate drop dramatically over the last two seasons. It's hard to say whether it's mechanics or lack of confidence, but Wade Davis is not the same pitcher that he was in the minor leagues. He's been even worse of late with a 6.04 ERA in his last four outings. Seattle has infused some new talent into their lineup lately from the minors and has been swinging it well. I would expect them to take advantage of a struggling Davis and put enough runs on the board to get a win for their ace, which shouldn't take much at all. I love the short price on one of the premium pitchers in baseball. That's why this is my Game of the Week, which I cashed in on easily in my last two weeks as well as my Game of the Month.

10-unit Play Take #964 Arizona Diamondbacks over New York Mets (9:40pm EST) The New York Mets are crumbling. They've taken more punches than Rocky Balboa this season and they just can't hang in anymore. The latest in the long list of casualties is star shortstop Jose Reyes, the heart and soul of the Mets. Reyes went down with a hamstring injury last week on the same day that Daniel Murphy suffered a season-ending knee injury. This was shortly after the Mets shipped Carlos Beltran to the San Francisco Giants and waved the white flag on the season. New York is 3-8 in their last 11 and you get the feeling that if the Mets had the choice to just end the season right now, they would oblige.

The Mets go with rookie right-hander Dillon Gee today, making his 19th start of the season. Gee had a very impressive start to his season, but the National League seems to have finally caught on to the youngster lately. In his last six starts, Gee has a 5.20 ERA and has shown a lack of control by walking 16 batters in those starts. It's hard to imagine that Gee is going to improve much down the stretch based on what we've seen of him. Facing the 8th ranked offense in baseball today definitely won't be the recipe.

The Arizona Diamondbacks can't complain about their situation. They sit atop the National League West division at 64-53 in a season where they were projected to be a last place team by some. They've exceeded expectations but have still managed to stay somewhat under the radar. That will change soon, but now's a good time to get on board before everyone else does. Right-hander Ian Kennedy pitches tonight for the D-backs and I absolutely love watching this guy pitch. He knows how to work a hitter and when to throw the right pitch. This is a breakout season for him as he's 14-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. But he, like the Diamondbacks teams, still isn't getting all of the respect he deserves. As a result, you're getting a great pitcher and a great team at a relatively low price in this matchup.

3 Unit Play Take #910 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (8:15pm ET) This is another huge series between the top two teams in the National League Central. As the Pirates and Reds have drifted away in the last few weeks, these two teams have separated themselves by playing some great baseball of late. The Brewers come in as winners of 20 of their last 28 while the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10. There are a lot of similarities between these two teams starting with the top-notch offenses. Both are in the top ten as the Cardinals rank fourth in runs scored in the majors while the Brewers rank ninth. These offenses also step it up a bit against right-handers, so we should expect to see some runs scored in this one. Slight edge to the Cardinals with a little bit better numbers and Rickie Weeks is on the disabled list for the Brewers.

The starting pitching staffs are also very good for both of these squads and we have a nice matchup today. Shaun Marcum goes for the Brew Crew and Edwin Jackson pitches for St. Louis. Marcum comes in at 10-3 with a 3.54 ERA but has had a lingering issue with his hip that affects him at times. He has also struggled against the Cardinals this season giving up nine runs in 13 innings of work. Edwin Jackson came over in a trade with the White Sox just recently and should be a welcome addition to the Cardinal rotation. He got shelled in his last outing against the Brewers but he's an underrated pitcher that has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career. I expect him to put it all together in a much easier league to pitch in now. When it comes down to the bullpens, the Cardinals have better numbers overall but the Brewers addition of K-Rod helps. Overall, I'll give a slight edge to the Cardinals in pitching for today.

The Brewers have struggled on the road this season at 24-35. The Cardinals haven't been dominant at home, but they obviously have a decent home field advantage. Both of these teams are hot and this is the start of a really big series that has playoff implications. The Cardinals have the slightly better hitting and pitching in this matchup and they're at home, so I'll take them at a small price in a game that they need more than the Brewers do.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take #916 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (4:10pm ET) I'll be completely honest. It took me awhile to become an Arizona Diamondback believer this season. Up until just recently I thought they were playing over their heads and would eventually come back down to earth. Their offense has been sensational all season long and their starting pitchers have been maturing must faster than expected. It doesn't hurt that they play in a weaker National League West division, but I'm now a believer. This team is good enough to go to the postseason and possibly make a little noise if they get there. Ian Kennedy is one of the reasons why this team has exceeded expectations so far and he is the starter for the D-backs today. The former Yankees top prospect is finally coming into his own and has been mowing down National League hitters to the tune of a 3.14 ERA to go along with his sparkling 13-3 record. He's been particularly effective in his last four starts sporting a 1.50 ERA with a 28-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The sky's the limit for this right-hander and he doesn't get nearly enough credit for what he is accomplishing this season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers counter with left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who is no slouch in his own right. In his fourth major league season, Kershaw has established himself as one of the best in the National League. With a 2.68 ERA, an average of nearly 10 strikeouts per innings and a 13-4 record, you have to put Kershaw in the Cy Young race. He's also been on a tear over his last five starts with a 0.71 ERA and a 39-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. So what we've established so far is that we have two excellent starting pitchers in this matchup, and both of them are pitching extremely well. I'll give a slight edge to Kershaw as he puts up better numbers, but remember that he pitches in LA while Kennedy pitches in Phoenix. As a result, the discrepancy is not as big as it seems due to the differences in the ballparks. Throw in the home field advantage in this game and you've got a fairly even matchup. However, we're forgetting one key element in this game - the offenses. Arizona averages 4.62 runs per game against left-handers while the Dodgers only average 3.65 runs per game against right-handers. That's nearly a one-run advantage per game, which is huge. Based on that fact, the D-backs should be a much bigger favorite in this one. And don't forget, the D-backs are sitting in first place with everything in the world to play for and the Dodgers have been out the race for months and are more worried about their financial solvency than they are about winning baseball games. The value definitely resides with the Diamondbacks today.

10 Unit Play Take #962 New York Mets over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) Whether or not the New York Mets are in the playoff hunt, they always get up for a series against their nemesis the Atlanta Braves. The Mets are playing spoilers for the rest of the season and there's nobody's season that they'd love to spoil more than the Braves. New York sends Jonathon Niese to the mound tonight, and he has done everything that has been asked of him this season. The left-hander is 10-8 with a 3.94 ERA and has averaged 7.75 strikeouts per nine innings while only walking 2.61 batters per innings. He's on my short list as one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the National League and he should step it up a notch against an arch rival. The Mets offense is also a bit underrated ranking 7th in all of baseball in batting average and 4th on on-base percentage despite a sea of injuries throughout the season. They've scuffled during their current five-game losing streak but they catch a struggling Tommy Hanson in this game. Hanson is as solid as they come but hasn't been right in his last four starts with a 6.56 ERA. Hanson also lost his only start to the Mets all season.
The Braves offense is without their leader and stating catcher Brian McCann. McCann is the team's best hitter and has been missed since he went on the disabled list. Nate McLouth is also out, taking away yet some of the depth, and Chipper Jones may be back but can't be counted on to be 100%. This team has been very inconsistent scoring runs throughout the season and I expect them to struggle against Niese as they only average 3.17 runs per game against southpaws. In their last 10 games they've been equally as bad, averaging only 3.23 runs per contest. With Niese on the hill, I'd be surprised if the Braves muster up more than 3 runs in tonight's game. I'll take the value in the home underdog here.

10 Unit Play Take #965 New York Yankees over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm ET) The New York Yankees have dominated this 4-game series so far, winning the first three games by a combined score of 27-9, including an 18-7 winner last night. In doing so, the Yankees have sucked all of the life out of the Chicago White Sox, who are now 6.5 games out of first in the American League Central and are fading fast. There's a huge psychological edge for the Bronx Bombers here as they can take advantage of a defeated Chicago team. Even White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen has seemingly thrown his hands up in the air and claimed that he doesn't have the answers.
New York looks to Ivan Nova in his second start after coming back from a brief stint in the minor leagues. He was impressive in his last outing yielding only two runs in seven full innings against Baltimore. In watching his last start, it seems like he may have all of his mechanics straightened out now and be on his way to getting back on track. The Yankee offense is without A-Rod, which is a huge loss but it hasn't shown lately as the Pinstripers have averaged 9.3 runs per game in their last 6 games, all of which were victories. There are just too many weapons on offense to account for on this squad.
The White Sox go with right-hander Philip Humber, who has been one of most steady starting pitchers in the American League. However, Humber has been struggling lately with an 8.79 ERA in his last three starts and it seems like the former Yankee may be wearing down a bit in the second half. His strikeout rate has also been decreasing compared to previous years and that is starting to catch up with him. The Yankees feast on struggling starters and this is a great spot to do it. The White Sox lineup will likely be without Paul Konerko who injured his calf the other day. Konerko is the heart and soul of the White Sox offense and the lack of his presence is a huge loss. All signs point to the Yankees to complete the four-game sweep and the price is right at only -115.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take #926 Kansas City Royals over Baltimore Orioles (8:10pm ET) The future is bright for the Kansas City Royals. They have one of the best young lineups in baseball, including some potential cornerstones in Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer. The young infusion of talent has catapulted the Kansas City offense from one of the worst in the American League over the last five years now to one of the better ones, averaging a respectable 4.39 runs per game in a year where runs have been hard to come by for everyone. Things are finally starting to look up and this team has an energy about them that should keep them competitive down the stretch and into next season. Another young talent that the Royals have is right-hander Luke Hochevar, who is the starter in tonight's game. Hochevar was a highly touted prospect in the Royals system but has struggled since being placed in the rotation three years ago. He has great stuff and has finally been showing it lately, posting a 3.26 ERA in his last three starts against Boston, Tampa Bay and Minnesota. In watching a few of his recent starts, he definitely has more confidence on the mound and is locating his pitches better.

The Baltimore Orioles, on the other hand, have been going in a different direction of late after starting the season very strong. The O's are 10-26 in their last 36 games, as Baltimore's aging veterans seemed to have called it a season and are mailing it in every night. This team was built to compete now, but residing in the American League East makes that very difficult. The Orioles send right-hander Jeremy Guthrie to the hill in this one. Guthrie has been serviceable over the years, but he is not overpowering and has struggled this season at 5-14. He has been more solid of late, but he has thrown a ton of pitches in his last 4 outings averaging 109 pitches per game. He's never been a consistent 100+ pitch guy and I expect that his arm might be a little tired coming into this matchup.

I biggest advantage here is the Royals have a respectable 28-30 home record while the Orioles are only 17-35 on the road. That's the worst road record in all of baseball. Another overlooked aspect in handicapping baseball is the bullpen. The arms that are available in the pen for the Royals have a combined ERA of 3.41, where the Orioles are almost a run higher at 4.34. With the starting pitchers in this matchup, the bullpens are going to be very important and will likely get 3+ inning of work each. I love the Royals in this spot as these teams are clearly going in different directions right now, and they have nearly every advantage in this matchup. That's why the Royals are my pick for the Game of the Month.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take #968 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (7:05pm ET) The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers begin an important 3-game set in Comerica today. Both teams are on top of their respective divisions, but both hold very narrow leads with teams breathing down their necks. These are the series where teams can make statements and prove to themselves that they are playoff worthy. The Tigers go with hard-throwing Max Scherzer, who has been very sharp in his last 4 starts. Scherzer has posted a 1.95 ERA in that stretch with a 22-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has been fighting inconsistency all year but finally seems to be getting into a nice groove. Scherzer is also a vastly better pitcher at home this season and the Tigers are one of the better home teams in baseball with a 31-24 record. With the pressure on for this series, I think home field advantage plays an even bigger role.

The Rangers on the other hand, have been banged up lately and are without Julio Borbon and Adrian Beltre, who are both on the disabled list. Nelson Cruz and Elvis Andrus are also hurting and aren't likely to be 100% if they do play in this game. In addition, the Rangers offense just isn't the same on the road, averaging only 3.9 runs per game. Texas sends Colby Lewis to the mound for this matchup, who hasn't been nearly as good as he was last season. His strikeouts are down significantly and he hasn't been able to induce as many groundballs, leading to mediocre results. I expect the Tigers to jump on him early and get into the Rangers pen before long. I like the home team at a very small price in this important statement series.

10 Unit Play Take #911 Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (8:40pm ET) The Philadelphia Phillies come into Coors Field to take on a team that has already thrown in the towel on the 2011 campaign. The Colorado Rockies sent their ace pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to the Cleveland Indians on Saturday before the trade deadline for a handful of prospects that have the potential to improve their team in the future. The Rockies promptly came into Sunday's game disinterested and lackadaisical, dropping a game to the weak San Diego Padres 8-3. Colorado now begins a homestand against the Phillies with a little different feeling inside. They're looking down the road and will try to get some younger guys in the lineup down the stretch to see what they're made of for next season. Carlos Gonzalez, one of Colorado's top hitters, is also still out with a wrist injury that hurts the lineup even more. The Rockies throw Jhoulys Chacin on the mound for Monday's matchup, who has been on a downward slide for the last month or so with a 5.82 ERA in his last 6 outings. It seems like the National League has finally caught up to this youngster, and he has not been able to sustain an unusually high groundball rate that made him effective earlier on in the season.
The Phillies are freshly off an exciting late-inning comeback against the Pirates on Sunday, which could easily spill over into the first of a 10-game road trip out West. The Phillies have been the most consistent team in baseball all season long and made their team even better over the weekend by adding outfielder Hunter Pence, giving opposing pitchers one more tough out in an already solid lineup. Cole Hamels is taking the ball for the Phils and he has simply been amazing this season. Bouncing back from a subpar season in 2010 by his standards, Hamels has proved that he is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Hamels has a 2.61 ERA this season and a 0.96 WHIP. He is also striking out opposing batters at a rate of 8.29 per nine innings. These are Cy Young-type numbers and I wouldn't be surprised if he captures it this season, along with another World Series ring. Hamels went up against the Rockies earlier this season and only allowed one run in eight innings of work. The Phillies lineup has been averaging 5.55 runs per game in their last 10 games, and that number should be even better with the addition of Pence and everyone now healthy.
This is an absolutely great spot for the Phils and they should have no trouble getting past the Rockies in this one given the direction that these two teams are headed. Throw a top 10 pitcher into the equation for Philadelphia and a struggling one for the Rockies, and it makes the decision even easier.

10 Unit Play Take 979 Tampa Bay at Seattle (4 pm ET) The Rays had a frustrating day yesterday, but I expect them to come back strong here in the rubber match of this series. Jeremy Hellickson is scheduled to start for the Rays. If he makes it to the mound then he will have survived the trade deadline and his first set of trade rumors, so he will be feeling relieved. He has been consistent in his last three, and has been effective on the road this year. Jason Vargas responds for the Mariners. He is a terrible second half pitcher, and has been ineffective in his last three. He's very hard to trust.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take 952 Washington at Florida (7 pm ET) A couple of old-timers take the mound in Washington today. Both guys used to strike out a lot of hitters, but they aren't nearly as dominant these days. Washington's Javier Vazquez is coming off a short, ugly start last time out, and he was rough against Florida last time he faced them. He has not been particularly sharp this year. Livan Hernandez answers for Washington. He has had some struggles, but he had a great start last time out, and he appears to be rounding into form. He was also strong the last time he faced Florida. Florida's offense is overachieving right now, and I am not confident that they can sustain it. Washington is a solid home team - 28-19 - so they won't be uncomfortable here.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take Colorado at Dodgers (10 pm ET) The Dodgers have been offensively inept and they made a hitting coach change last week as a result, but the results have yet to show up on the field. Colorado starter Juan Nicasio is capable of exploiting and continuing those weaknesses. The Rockies are a nice 6-2 in Nicasio's last eight starts, so they like playing behind him. He has not been great on the road but the sample size is small and he is generally pretty consistent, so I trust him here. The Dodgers answer with Rubby De La Rosa. The rookie has not pitched well at home this year, and he was quite ineffective last time out against the Giants. The Rockies have averaged 5.6 runs per game in their last 11, so they are confident on offense and can certainly challenge De La Rosa.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

NL Game of the Year - 10 Unit Play Take 909 Atlanta at Cincinnati (7 pm ET MLB.tv) I have been hoping since the all-star break that I would get this pitching matchup, so I am happy to jump all over it. Atlanta's Jair Jurrjen has been perhaps the best pitcher in the NL this year. He is coming off a terrible start, but it was just mechanics, and he is confident he has worked through that. I expect him to bounce back very strong - especially against a Cincinnati team that is struggling badly with just seven runs scored in their last five. The Reds answer with Bronson Arroyo. Simply put, he has been terrible recently - his ERA is 8.66 in his last three. The Braves have scored seven or more runs in three of their last five, so they are well poised to exploit Arroyo's issues. Atlanta is a very solid road team and they have dominated right-handed starters this year, so they are very well poised for success here. The Braves are 38-18 in their last 56 vs. National League Central. The Reds are 7-19 in their last 26 games following a win. We will side with the Braves and this low price giving us yet another Big Play winner!

10 Unit Play Take 967 Cleveland at Baltimore (7 pm ET) Baltimore has lost eight games in a row and 13 of 14, so they obviously are not playing particularly well right now. In fact, they are in a serious funk. Given that, it's hard to justify that they should be favored against a team that has beaten them four times this year and 12 times in 17 tries over the last three years. Not only that, but Cleveland has a distinct pitching advantage as well. Josh Tomlin has been solid all year, and is in good form recently. He is easy to trust against this struggling Baltimore lineup. Baltimore starts Jake Arrieta. He has not been at all impressive in his last two games, and has not been particularly comfortable at home. He has only faced Cleveland once in his career and they beat him up.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

Game of the Year - 10 Unit Play Take 954 Pittsburgh vs. Cubs (7 pm ET) I have had this game circled for more than a week because of how well it sets up. The Pirates are playing very good baseball - three wins in their last four, and a very strong 18-11 against their division. The Cubs are struggling. They have lost five of seven and played the kind of crazy game last night (10-9 with Washington) that can be hard to bounce back from - especially since the bullpen had to carry the load for seven innings. They have also had to travel while Pittsburgh had a day off in their own beds. James McDonald starts for Pittsburgh. He has been very solid in his last three, and has pitched well at home all year. I like his confidence right now, and the bullpen that has been pitching so well is rested and ready to support him. Rodrigo Lopez answers for the Cubs. He was strong last timeout, but he struggles to string consecutive strong performances together, and he is making his first road start of the season. I find it very hard to trust him. The Cubs are 5-16 in their last 21 road games. The Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 home games. Play the home team and collect with this veteran handicapper!

4 Unit Play Take 920 Boston vs. Baltimore (7 pm ET) Boston has won six of seven and are playing very well right now. They are just half a game out of the AL East lead, and will be motivated to hit the break on top. The Orioles have dropped eight of nine and are just plain lousy. They just allowed 13 runs in a game twice in a three game series against Texas. Boston has won 14 of 19 games at home against the O's this year, including the only one played this year. Andrew Miller starts for the Red Sox. In his first year in Boston he seems like he is finally starting to realize his major potential. He has looked very strong in his last three, and he should be confident here. Jake Arrieta starts for Baltimore. The young pitcher has not been particularly sharp lately, is coming off a rough start against Atlanta, and will be in for a rough day against Boston's potent offense.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take 967 Tampa Bay at Minnesota (1 pm ET) The Rays haven't been swept in a series of three or more games since the first series of the season, and they are going to fight hard to avoid it here. They played well yesterday but didn't quite pull it off, so they are close to where they need to be, and they are a very solid road team. They also have a big pitching edge here. Wade Davis has been excellent in his last three games. He is very confident, and that will show here. Francisco Liriano starts for Minnesota. He has been wildly inconsistent all year, and his numbers just have not been good enough to impress consistently. He is easy to bet against - especially against a team that is very capable of scoring runs on the road.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play Take 929 Seattle at Oakland (10 pm ET) King Felix had a pretty rough outing last time he pitched, but he generally bounces back well in those cases, and he'll be confident against an Oakland team that he has always fared well against. Trevor Cahill is also coming off a lousy start. Seattle is the more confident team right now - they have won three of four while Oakland has dropped eight of 12 and four of six. They are a solid 5-3 against Oakland this year, and 3-1 in Oakland, so they are in a good spot - especially with their ace on the mound.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports