Sports Picks & Predictions

10-unit Play Take #952 Pittsburgh Pirates over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:05pm EST) After a slow start to the 2014 campaign, the Pittsburgh Pirates are coming on strong. They are 34-21 over their last 55 games and they are the most impressive team in the NL over that span. Timely hitting and consistent pitching has been the key as this roster has great chemistry overall. The Pirates also play the game the right way and our as fundamentally sound as they come. They've been getting contributions from the entire 25-man roster, including some surprise production from today's starter Vance Worley. The right-hander had basically been written off after a terrible year in Minnesota last season. But the Pirates worked with him in the minor leagues and Worley has come through with a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in six games. His control has been impeccable as he's walking just 1.3 batters per nine innings - less than half of his career average. Today he'll get a banged up Dodgers lineup that could be without Yasiel Puig and/or Hanley Ramirez. The Dodgers are starting to play better too, but I don't like their starter Josh Beckett today. Beckett has been dealing with a serious hip injury and has admitted that he's not 100%. That could be a huge issue as Beckett isn't a spring chicken anymore. The Pirates are one of the better hitting teams in the NL and should be able to capitalize if Beckett isn't quite right. Take Pittsburgh in this one as our Game.

10-unit Play Take #901 San Francisco Giants over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) The San Francisco Giants have put together a great season at 54-44 through the first 98 games. They've done it with a balanced effort and contributions from nearly the entire 25-man roster. One guy who they weren't sure they'd be able to count on coming into the 2014 season is today's starter Ryan Vogelsong. After a tough 2013 campaign with a 5.73 ERA, the right-hander has bounced back nicely this season. He has improved his strikeout and walk rates, and brought his ERA down to 3.86 in 19 starts. He'll get a Phillies team today that is more worried about who they are going to trade than they are with winning ballgames. The Phils are a mess right now at 43-55, and the rebuilding process is set to kick off soon. Cliff Lee is one of the guys that will get heavy attention and this is his first major league start back from the disabled list. I generally don't like betting against the crafty southpaw, but if there's a time to do it's now while he's rusty. The Giants have also hit lefties well this season overall. Philadelphia has been horrible at home this season at 19-29, which is the worst in the NL. The Giants, meanwhile, have been road warriors at 26-19. This one sets up well for San Francisco and we get a nice underdog price.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #901 Atlanta Braves over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The Atlanta Braves head to the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets in the first of four games. The Braves are playing their best baseball of the season right now with nine wins in their last 10 games, including a three-game sweep of the Mets just a week ago. Timely hitting and some excellent pitching has been the key to their surge. Today's starter Mike Minor hasn't been one of the pitchers that have stepped up however. It's been quite the opposite in fact, as Minor has a 7.55 ERA over his last five outings. But his peripheral numbers haven't been nearly as bad, and Minor hasn't looked any different on the mound this season compared to prior years. I fully expect him to bounce back and today versus the Mets is a good place to start. The Mets have dropped eight of 11 and are looking to Daisuke Matsuzaka to keep them in the game today. Matsuzaka was effective as a reliever but he's been terrible since joining the rotation. Out of the pen Daisuke posted a 2.22 ERA, but as a starter he's at 4.81. He hasn't made it past the sixth inning in any start and that opens the door to the Mets awful bullpen. The Braves should take care of business offensively, and I also expect Minor to get back on track. Take Atlanta.

10-unit Play Take #908 Cincinnati Reds over Milwaukee Brewers (4:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds are starting to play like everyone expected, but we're still seeing some reasonable lines on them. Cincinnati is 15-7 over their last 22 contests, including taking the first game of this big series versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. We like them again here with the red hot Homer Bailey taking the hill. Bailey is 4-1 over his last seven starts with a 3.23 ERA and 44-12 K/BB ratio. His velocity is also creeping up and you can see the confidence coming back after a slow start to the 2014 campaign. Matt Garza goes for Milwaukee and he's been mediocre at best for most of the season. I give Bailey the check mark in this one and I also give small edges to the Reds as far as offense and bullpen goes. With the Reds at home, I think this line should be about 10-15 cents higher. Take Cincinnati.

10-unit Play Take #909 Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) There's no question that the Texas Rangers have fallen on hard times. Injuries eventually got the best of them, and now they've lost 12 of 14 games to drop 10 games below the .500 mark. But if they have one guy who's going to break a cold streak it's today's starter Yu Darvish. The Japanese sensation is 8-4 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 15 starts. The line one this game is more reflective of what the team has done recently, so I think we're getting a huge discount with Darvish pitching. He'll face an Orioles team that is a bit overrated in my book. The O's are 45-39, but the AL East has surprisingly turned into one of the worst divisions in all of baseball. Wei-Yin Chen toes the rubber for Baltimore today. Chen is probably Baltimore's best starting pitcher, but that's not exactly saying a lot. He has struggled a bit of late, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts. The Rangers offense isn't as potent as it has been in recent years, but they still pose a decent threat. With Darvish backing them up, I think the Rangers can finally break through today.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #956 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates made a dramatic come from behind win last night versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. They trailed 2-0 heading into the 9th and were able to put three runs on the board to get the victory 3-2. It's been a horrific season for the D-Backs, but a game like that brings them to a new low. Ike Davis singled in the game-winning run which led to the standard walk-off celebration for the Pirates. It was one of those wins that creates energy that can carry forward into the next day, and I fully expect that to be the case in this one. The Pirates have been on quite a roll going 14-7 over their last 21 games and are moving up the standings quickly. Charlie Morton gets the nod for them today and he was dominant in his last outing versus the Rays. He went seven innings in that start allowing just two earned runs and striking out 11 batters with just one walk. It was his best effort of the season and a huge confidence builder. Arizona counters with Chase Anderson. The young right-hander looked really good in his first couple of starts after getting called up, but he's been mediocre of late as the league has made some adjustments. I'm not sure his teammates will give him much support after getting the wind knocked out them last night. This one has a Pirates winner written all over it.

10-unit Play Take #966 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (8:10pm EST) Taijuan Walker finally makes his 2014 debut for the Mariners and Seattle fans are excited. Walker has been one of the most highly-touted prospects in Seattle's system over the last couple of years. He made a brief cameo last season and performed well in three starts. Walker was slated to start the season in the big league rotation, but a shoulder injury put him in the disabled list. He's made eight starts in the minors before heading to the bigs, but he wasn't as dominant in Triple-A as most expected him to be. With all of the attention he has gotten so far, it may add some extra pressure on him in his first outing. He'll face an underrated Astros lineup that has increased its production as the season has went on. Collin McHugh will pitch for Houston and he's been one of the big surprises in 2014. McHugh has gone from relatively unknown to a guy who looks like he belongs in the All-Star game this season. He enters today's game with 2.86 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts, and is averaging 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He's still flying under the radar a bit, evidenced by the low price pitching at home today. We'll take the Astros in a game we see a lot of value.

10-unit Play Take #967 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers have begun to slide but who can blame them? No team has endured more injuries than the Rangers have in 2014, and it's pretty amazing that Ron Washington was able to keep it together for this long. Texas has dropped seven straight games to their lowest point of the season. To make matters worse, they're in the toughest division in baseball so things probably aren't going to get any better. Today they send one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball to the mound in Nick Martinez. The 23-year old has been knocked around since entering the rotation over a month ago. In nine starts this season, Martinez has a 5.06 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He's walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out and he doesn't induce many groundballs. There really isn't anything that Martinez is doing well at the moment, so he either needs to be sent back to the bullpen or down to the minor leagues. But as long as he's in the rotation, we'll continue to play against him. Today the Tigers will get their cracks against him. Detroit has suddenly turned it on with six straight wins, and the offense has really picked it up. Over their last six-game winning streak, Detroit is averaging 6.5 runs per contest. Rick Porcello gets the nod on the mound. He's putting together another solid season at 9-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He has to redeem himself after the Rangers knocked him around pretty good in Detroit about a month ago. I'm confident that he will and that the Tigers will score plenty of runs to support him. This one could be over early on, as the Tigers should roll in our 6-unit June Game of the Week.

10-unit Play Take #980 Arizona Diamondbacks over Cleveland Indians (9:40pm EST) It's tough backing this Arizona Diamondbacks team right now, but we've found a really good spot tonight. Left-hander Wade Miley toes the rubber for the D-Backs and I really like what he's shown us this season. His ERA is 4.62, but that isn't representative of the way he has pitched in 2014. He has an excellent 93-32 K/BB ratio and a modest 1.28 WHIP. He's gotten into some trouble with the long ball, but a lot of that is just noise as he pitches in an extreme hitter's park. Miley should excel tonight as Cleveland doesn't have a lineup built to hit against southpaws. Cleveland is hitting just .239 against lefties this season - worst in the American League. The Tribe goes with Justin Masterson. He's had a shaky season marred by inconsistency, so it's hard to know what to expect from him today. Arizona is 14-4 in their last 18 interleague home games. The Indians are 16-43 in their last 59 interleague road games. This one sets up well for Arizona, so we'll lay the small price.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #907 St. Louis Cardinals over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) Don't look now, but the defending National League champions are heating up. The Cards have won 10 of 14 and are making their move in the NL Central. This definitely shouldn't come as a surprise since this year's Cardinals roster is even better than last year's edition. But it seems like the betting markets still haven't fully reacted to the Cardinals playing better. Today they are very small favorite against a Colorado Rockies team that is decimated by injuries right now. The Rockies are missing three guys from the starting lineup and four starting pitchers. Since the end of the May, Colorado is just 7-19 and is now out of contention. Jhoulys Chacin toes the rubber for Colorado in this one and he's been a big disappointment so far in 2014. His velocity has tailed off and he has an ERA that is nearly a full run over his career level. There were some injury issues earlier in the season, so there's a good chance something is still lingering for the right-hander. St. Louis counters with Lance Lynn today. Lynn has been somewhat of an enigma at times, but when you look at his overall numbers they are certainly more than adequate. The 27-year old is 7-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 15 starts. In his four-year career, he's always had an ERA in the 3's despite some shaky performances. The Cardinals bullpen has been pitching well, so if Lynn can go his usual six or seven innings without getting into major trouble, they should be in good shape. St. Louis has the advantage all around, so we'll take them at a nice price.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #926 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (7:15pm EST) It's hard to believe that Justin Verlander has gone from the very best pitcher in the sport a couple of years ago, to a guy that is probably one of the five worst pitchers going right now. So much has changed in a short time that many are scratching their heads trying to figure it out. It's probably a combination of factors including diminished velocity, a big contract in his back pocket, lingering injury issues and Kate Upton. But whatever it is, Verlander isn't right and he's one of the top guys to bet against at the moment. The oddsmakers and betting markets are still giving Verlander some respect and it's hard to comprehend. He comes into today's start with a 4.98 ERA and 1.56 WHIP and he's getting worse by the start. Over his last three outings, the former Cy Young and MVP is 0-3 with a 9.16 ERA and 2.04 WHIP. His K/BB ratio in those outings is just 12-10 and many hitters have commented that his stuff is very easy to pick up now. The Indians will get their chance to take some shots at Verlander today and they should do well given all of their left-handed bats. The Indians have hit right-handers about as well as anyone this season and they've seen plenty of Verlander over the years. Trevor Bauer will deal with the Tigers hitters and I like what I've seen from the youngster in 2014. He's finally blossoming into the kind of pitcher everyone had hoped for when he was in Arizona. He's striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings and has a respectable 4.20 ERA. His stuff is electric and he's one of the more cerebral pitchers in the game. Bauer is here to stay in the Indians rotation and I expect a big year from him. The Tigers have dropped 20 of 31 games and are still trying to stop this spiral. With the big edge on the mound, I like the Indians to take this one at home.

10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Cleveland Indians (12:05pm EST) This one was delayed one day because of rain, but that doesn't change the handicap. The Angels and Indians will play the rubber game of what is now a three-game set in Cleveland. C.J. Wilson toes the rubber for the Halos and he's about as consistent as it comes when you are talking about starting pitchers. The veteran right-hander enters today's contest 7-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 14 starts. Since becoming a starter, Wilson has posted ERAs of 3.35, 2.94, 3.83, 3.39 and the 3.50 he has so far in 2014. You know exactly what you're going to get from him and that makes it easier to back him in this game. The Indians do not hit left-handed pitching particularly well. In fact, they are hitting just .241 as a team against southpaws on the season. Justin Masterson goes for the Tribe and he's been about the opposite of consistent throughout his career. This season has been no exception as he comes in with a 5.05 ERA despite mixing in some brilliant performances. This is on the heels of a season in which he posted a 3.45 ERA. The Angels have one of the top offenses in baseball and it's even better now that it's healthy. Josh Hamilton missed extensive time, but he's back in the lineup and is raking. It's hard to find any areas where the Angels don't have the advantage tonight. As a result, we're on the Angels in this spot.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #903 San Diego Padres over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) The San Diego Padres and New York Mets aren't going anywhere in 2014 and this game probably won't be particularly exciting for the casual fan. But that doesn't mean we can't make some money on what looks like a great opportunity. Ian Kennedy has been one of the top pitchers in the National League this season, but he hasn't got the kind of attention he has deserved. He comes in at 5-7 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He's striking out a career-best 9.5 batters per nine innings while walking a career-low 2.1 at the same time. Kennedy has even increased his groundball rate and lowered his home run rate in 2014. Skeptics may point to the fact that half of his starts are in Petco Park, which is one of the top pitcher's parks in baseball. But Kennedy has actually been better on the road than he has at home.

Today he'll see a weak-hitting Mets team that was shut out yesterday by rookie Jesse Hahn. That made nine losses in their last 11 games, and their hitting has been the culprit during the collapse. The Mets averaged just 3.0 runs per game during that span despite going up against mediocre pitching. Kennedy certainly will be one of the toughest arms they've faced in some time, so I don't expect many runs to cross the plate for New York. That puts the pressure on Mets starter Daisuke Matsuzaka. The veteran right-hander was forced into the rotation due to other injuries and he hasn't fit in very well so far. His overall ERA is 2.95, but that is deceiving for two reasons. First off, most of his innings have been out of the bullpen pitching one inning at a time. Starting is much more difficult when hitters get to see you multiple times. In addition, Matsuzaka has been extremely fortunate as he is allowing a BABIP of just .204. He's walking 6.4 batters per nine innings, which is amongst the highest in the majors. San Diego is a poor hitting team, but any major league team can score runs when they're given free passes. Daisuke will likely only go five or six innings today, and that opens the game up for the Padres as the Mets bullpen has struggled for most of the season. I expect San Diego to get an early lead on the Mets and Kennedy should be able to hold it the way he's been throwing. When the game gets into the hands of the respective bullpens, I like San Diego there as well. All signs point to the Padres here and that's why it's our 10-unit National League Game of the Year.

10-unit Play Take #955 Pittsburgh Pirates over Miami Marlins (4:10pm EST) We've been riding the Pittsburgh Pirates lately and we'll do it again here on Saturday. As was pointed out a couple of times already, this is an improved version of the Pittsburgh team from a few weeks back. Gregory Polanco is one of the biggest reasons why, as he was called up from Triple-A earlier this week. All he did yesterday was go 5-for-7 at the plate, including the game-winning home run in the 13th inning. He's a game-changer and makes this Pittsburgh team a contender. I like the pitching matchup here today as Charlie Morton goes up against Randy Wolf. That's a huge mismatch in Pittsburgh's favor as Morton is throwing the ball very well and Wolf is a bomb waiting to implode. We could break it down further, but it's really that simple. The Pirates are 10-5 in their last 15 games and we'll continue to let them cash tickets for us. They have the better overall team and a big edge on the mound, so this price is very reasonable. Take the Pirates as our 5-unit Game of the Week.

10-unit Play Take #960 Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago Cubs (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates have a new look and I think it could pay dividends in the coming weeks. First off, Russell Martin and Jason Grilli are back in the fold after missing several weeks with injuries. Those were two of the most important pieces to the puzzle for the Pirates last year and they are leaders on this squad. Pittsburgh also finally brought up Gregory Polanco a few days ago and he's one of the top prospects in the game. He should make an impact with his bat and in the field based on all of the scouting reports. You're also starting to see the signs of a run as Pittsburgh is 8-5 in their last 13 games. If they can keep winning at that rate, they'll be back in the playoff race in a matter of weeks. Today they get the lovable losers - the Chicago Cubs. It's been another disappointing season on the north side of Chicago in 2014. The Cubs have the worst record in the NL and the minor league ball club seems to be all anyone cares about in the organization. That bodes well for bettors looking to make some money going against them. The Cubs clearly have the edge on the mound today, but that's the only area where they are better. Starting pitching is generally overrated in the markets, and this is a perfect example. Jeff Samardzija has a sparkling 2.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but he only has two wins to show for it. The offense and bullpen have let him down in a big way this season and there's no reason to expect it to change. The line on this game is a bit lower than expected, so we'll take the Pirates here.

10-unit Play Take #904 Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:10pm EST) Good spot here for the Cincinnati Reds as they catch the Los Angeles Dodgers at the perfect time. First off, the Dodgers just finished a series in Colorado and will have to now travel across country to Cincinnati for this one. Adjusting from the high altitude to a normal environment usually takes more than 24 hours, so advantage to the Reds there. Los Angeles is also pretty banged up at the moment, with Carl Crawford and Juan Uribe on the disabled list and Yasiel Puig and Dee Gordon big question marks for tonight. The Reds go with crafty southpaw Tony Cingrani in tonight's game. He hasn't been great so far in 2014, but the Dodgers have had all kinds of trouble with left-handers all season long so I like his chances. The Dodgers are hitting just .208 against lefties - worst in the NL. Dan Haren toes the rubber for Los Angeles and he's struggled a bit after a red hot start to the 2014 season. Haren has given up at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and he's striking out fewer batters in the process. He has just 18 strikeouts to his name over his last six starts, which spans 37 innings of work. The Reds are still without their best player Joey Votto, but they still have some weapons in the lineup and have managed to stay afloat at 29-32. We'll take Cincinnati here at home at a nice price.

10-unit Play Take #971 Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) We're leaning on the surging Astros once again today as they take on the Twins. Houston is 16-10 over their last 26 games after an 11-26 start to the season. They're clearly not quite as good as their recent record indicates, but they're certainly not as bad as the way they opened the 2014 campaign. The real answer is somewhere in the middle and I really think this is a team that could play close to .500 baseball for the remainder of the season. The lineup keeps improving as they are bringing quality talent and the young guys are learning more and more each day. The rotation is better than originally anticipated and one of the reasons is today's starter Collin McHugh. The young right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight starts in 2014. This is after posting an enormous 10.04 ERA in limited work last season and bouncing around three different organizations in a two-year span. The betting markets haven't quite caught up to him and the Astros yet. They are small favorites here, but this line should be 10-15 cents higher based on my ratings. The Astros have the better overall team and are sending out the better starter on the mound. So we'll take Houston once again.

10-unit Play Take #917 Cleveland Indians over Texas Rangers (4:05pm EST) They started the season slowly, but the Cleveland Indians are finally playing like they are capable of. The Tribe has won six of seven and more closely resemble the team that surprised everyone and made the playoffs last season. Cleveland doesn't rely on any superstars to carry them, as they have one of the more balanced teams in baseball. It seems like someone different steps up every day to contribute, and they're usually not household names. One guy that has been getting the job done is today's starter Josh Tomlin. The 29-year old right-hander wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation this season, but he was given a shot due to injuries. So far he's been impressive with a 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six games. Tomlin relies on his impeccable control to be successful. He holds an extremely low 1.4 walk rate per innings and has induced lots of weak contact as well. He'll face a battered Texas Rangers squad that looks nothing like it did earlier this spring. Injuries have ravaged the Rangers roster and it's a minor miracle that they've hovered around the .500 mark for so long. The bottom will eventually fall out for Texas as they can't stay afloat with the guys they are trotting out day in and day out. Nick Tepesch gets the ball today and he's another guy that wasn't supposed to be in the rotation on day one. He's filled in nicely so far at 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA, but his stuff isn't overwhelming and he'll provide mediocre production at best. The Indians have hit righties extremely well overall, with a .264 average on the season (versus just .236 against lefties). As a result, they should be able to jump on Tepesch and get into a suspect Texas bullpen early on. The wrong team is being favored in this game so we're on the Indians for our Game of the Week.

10-unit Play Take #966 Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) Today's game is all about Corey Kluber, who is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball at the moment. The Indians right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last six starts. But even more impressively, he has a 60-8 K/BB ratio and has dominated AL hitters. He'll face a lackluster Red Sox lineup that is just 11th in the AL in runs scored this season. I think the Red Sox will eventually find a groove offensively, but right now they are fade material. Youngster Brandon Workman goes for Boston. He's an unproven commodity at the moment, but I wasn't impressed with his effort in the minors. He seems like he needs a little more seasoning, so I expect the Indians to touch him up pretty good in this one. The Tribe hit righties very well, so that makes things even tougher on Workman. We're paying a decent price on Cleveland here, but there's still plenty of value.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (10:05pm EST) I love what I've seen so far from the Angels and A's this season. Based on my ratings, these are the two best teams in the AL and I expect it to be a dogfight to the win the AL West between these two. Today's matchup features one of the pitchers I have enjoyed backing frequently this season against a pitcher that wasn't supposed to be in the rotation in 2014. Tyler Skaggs is the former and he's been a huge boon to an Angel's rotation that sorely needed some quality innings after a disaster last year. Skaggs was acquired in the offseason in a trade for Mark Trumbo and it's paid off. Skaggs enters today's game 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 10 starts. His peripheral numbers say he should be even a little bit better than that, and I agree. He should continue to get better as he gets comfortable in the AL. On the other side is Oakland starter Tommy Milone. The A's were perfectly happy with Milone coming out of the bullpen this season as they found better options. But injuries forced Milone back into his customary starting role, and the results have been mediocre at best. While he carries an ERA in the mid-3's, Milone has put up some weak peripherals thus far with a 4.79 xFIP. He gives up a ton of fly balls, which is generally ok at home. But that will cost him on occasion, and don't be surprised if the Angels make him pay a couple of times today. All in all, the line is probably close to accurate. However, I really like the pitching matchup here for the Angels and think they find a way to get the job done.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #954 St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants (8:15pm EST) Thursday's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants is more about what is going to happen rather than what has happened. San Francisco starter Ryan Vogelsong has put together a very nice season at 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. By all accounts, he's throwing some of the best baseball of his career. But at the age of 36, I'm not sure we can buy into Vogelsong all of a sudden becoming a top level starter. His career ERA is 4.43 and last season he checked in at 5.73. He hasn't added any new pitches and unless he has discovered the fountain of youth, we should expect regression from Vogelsong. On the other hand, is Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals. Garcia has spent more time on the disabled list than the baseball diamond over the last couple of years. But when he's been healthy, Garcia has been legit. He has a 3.46 career ERA and is only 27-years old, where he should be entering his prime. As a result, I think Garcia is a big undervalued in the betting marketplace. St. Louis as a team may be a bit undervalued as a team as they haven't gotten off to the kind of start that was expected. However, they are still 29-23 and on pace for 90+ wins. The Giants, meanwhile, are 33-19 and are playing a bit above their heads. The market may be giving them a little too much credit for a hot start. The value lies with St. Louis today.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #919 Los Angeles Angels over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) We've been going against Chris Young of the Mariners as much as we can, even though it's had mixed results so far. There's no question he is much worse than his 3.53 ERA indicates, and I doubt he will last the whole season in the Seattle rotation. I like the Angels to rough him up early and often in what should be a route today.

10-unit Play Take #922 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (4:10pm EST) It's not very often you find David Price lined this low at home against a last place team. But that's what we have today, as the Rays host the Red Sox. These two squads have vastly underachieved through the first quarter or so of the season, but they both have the talent to bounce back quickly. Price isn't putting up his normal numbers in 2014, but all of his peripheral statistics are looking good. He's striking out more batters, walking far less and is still an intimidating force on the mound. Before long he'll have his ERA where it belongs, so I'm not worried. The Rays know how to get their pitchers dealing and Price is the best they have. On the other side is veteran Jake Peavy, who is a shell of his former self. The 33-year old checks in with a 4.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in nine starts this season. His biggest problem has been his control, as Peavy is walking 4.5 batters per nine innings - more than double his walk rate last season. The Rays have been one of the better teams at home over the last five or six seasons and this price is just too low with an ace on the hill. The play is Tampa Bay.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #966 Texas Rangers over Seattle Mariners (2:05pm EST) If Chris Young were a cat, he'd be working on his last life. The 35-year old right-hander has bounced around the majors his entire career and was nearly out of baseball for good a couple of times. His fastball barely hits 85mph on the radar gun and his control isn't particularly good. He doesn't induce many groundballs and opposing hitters don't fear him. But somehow Young latched on with the Mariners and so far he's miraculously posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Based on his skill set and peripheral statistics, Young should have an ERA in the 5's. He's been aided by a ridiculously low .199 BABIP and he's pitching much better with runners in scoring position. As a result, once those numbers regress to their normal levels, we should see the real Chris Young - and it won't be pretty. The Texas Rangers will try to expose Young today in Arlington. The Rangers have been struggling at the plate most of the season, but they've hit well the last couple of games. They've been dealing with injuries all season long, so they haven't had the consistency they would have liked. Nick Tepesch gets the ball for the Rangers. Tepesch looked really good in his first outing of the season last time out. He struck out eight batters in 5.1 innings of work and allowed just two hits. He also threw the ball really well in Triple-A, posting a 1.58 ERA in seven starts. Texas has the better pitcher on the mound in this one and their offense rates better than Seattle's. Throw in the home field advantage and we get a bargain price on the Rangers.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #919 Cleveland Indians over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) One of the most underrated starting pitchers in the AL is Indians starter Corey Kluber. He was great for the Tribe in 2013 going 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA and an excellent K/BB ratio. This season he is even better, increasing his strikeouts by 20% and also inducing more groundballs than ever. At just 28 years of age, I expect Kluber to continue to improve and possibly get to an All-Star level. He won't easily be confused with Toronto's start in this one Dustin McGowan. McGowan has struggled with injuries the last couple of years and his stuff is clearly diminished. In seven starts this season he has a 4.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His K/BB ratio is an unacceptable 22-15 and I don't think he can make it through the season with those kinds of numbers. So we have a big advantage for the Indians on the mound today, while the teams are mostly even in the other important aspects. I have both teams rated roughly the same on offense and in the bullpen, so the difference in this game will be the starting pitching. Take the Tribe tonight.

10-unit Play Take #965 Detroit Tigers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) We played the Tigers successfully yesterday and we like them again today for the same reasons. Detroit simply isn't getting enough respect by the betting markets despite holding the best record in baseball. They have an excellent every day lineup, an elite starting rotation and one of the best closers in the history of baseball. But despite it all, we're still seeing lines that are far too short. Tiger's starters have allowed three earned runs or less in 14 straight games, with an ERA of 2.07 during that stretch. Drew Smyly will get the opportunity to extend that streak and I like his chances to do it. The 24-year old southpaw comes in with a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and has been one of the unsung heroes of this ballclub the past couple of seasons. I don't like what I've seen from the Baltimore Orioles so far in 2014. They are leading the AL East but have a negative run differential on the season. Their offense is severely overrated as they are 13th in the AL in runs scored and most of that is due to their impatience at the plate. They've been particularly bad against left-handed pitching this season, so Smyly should be able to shut them down. The Tigers are probably licking their chops with Ubaldo Jimenez toeing the rubber for the O's. He's been awful once again with a 4.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his first season in Baltimore. This one could get out of hand quickly. Take the Tigers in a route.

Two bitter rivals have at it again in Dodgers Stadium tonight. This line is tough to figure out as the Giants have a massive edge on the mound with ace Madison Bumgarner going against Paul Maholm. The market obviously knows this is a disparity, but I think they are underestimating the Giants offense more than anything. San Francisco is 4th in the NL in runs scored despite playing in one of the most extreme pitcher's parks and they're second in home runs. The Dodgers are right there with them, but the perception is that the Los Angeles offense is leaps and bounds better than the Giants. It's not the case now and I don't think it will be. One area where the Giants seem to have an edge is in the bullpen, where the Giants currently have a league-leading 1.81 ERA. They won't be able to maintain that low of a number all season, but they have several reliable options at the moment. Add it all up and the Giants should be higher favorites here.

It's not easy to pull the trigger on the Cubs at 11-21, but I like their pitching edge today. Jake Arrieta has pitched really well since switching leagues and coming to the Chicago. Most pitchers that go from the AL to NL see vast improvement, and Arrieta is no exception. Last season the right-hander was 4-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 with the Cubs. He missed the first month of the season this year, but his first start last week was impressive. He shut down a tough Cardinals lineup, going 5.1 innings without allowing a run. The White Sox are a banged up team right now, with three key players out of the lineup - Eaton, Garcia and Dunn. They've been scoring a lot of runs this season, but that's mostly due to the AL Player of the Month Jose Abreu. Now that the cat is out of the bag on Abreu, I'm sure opposing pitchers have taken notice. Rookie Scott Carroll goes for the Sox today. He's 29-years old after floating around in the minor leagues for nearly seven years. That's not a good sign and his results should bear that out. He pitched well in his first two starts, but he was extremely fortunate to work out of some jams. In his two starts he only struck out a total of three batters, so the Cubs will make some contact against him. Take the Cubs here in a rare win.

The Crosstown Classic switches venues as the series shifts to US Cellular Field - home of the Chicago White Sox. The Sox are the better baseball team, but there are several reasons to like the Cubs in today's matchup. First and foremost, the Cubs have a vastly underrated starting pitcher on the mound in Travis Wood. He doesn't get much attention playing on a bad team, but Wood is putting up great numbers all around this season. He's even capable of getting some hits at the plate and hit a home run for the fourth consecutive season earlier this year. On the other side is southpaw John Danks, who has been one of the shakiest starters in the AL this season. Danks is coming off surgery and hasn't regained his velocity, so he's relying on his control more than ever. It hasn't worked. Danks is walking 5.0 batters per nine innings while only striking out 5.2. He's a gritty pitcher, but grit can only get you so far. The Cubs have hit lefties surprisingly well this season, so I expect them to plate some runs for a change. If Wood pitches like he usually does, then we should be able to put one in the win column with the Cubs.

10-unit Play Take #972 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) The Houston Astros are still the worst team in the major leagues, but they have a few bright spots. One of those is today's starter Dallas Keuchel. The 26-year old left-hander has really turned some heads this season, posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in five starts. His peripheral statistics are even more impressive as Keuchel is striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings and inducing an insane 64% groundball rate. He has All-Star potential and has certainly started out the season at an All-Star level. On the other side is right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. The Seattle starter is making his first start after dealing with a finger injury all spring. He did make one rehab start but it wasn't particularly impressive. I doubt the M's will let him go past five or six innings, so that will give the Astros several shots at a mediocre bullpen. Both of these clubs have struggled out of the gates offensively, with the Mariners in 14th in the AL and the Astros 15th. With no distinct advantage there, I think Keuchel is the difference in this game. Take the Astros as the home underdog.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #930 Pittsburgh Pirates over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't off to the kind of start they would have hoped for, but they've got the right guy on the mound to turn things around on Friday. The 23-year old right-hander has quickly developed into an ace with just 24 major league starts under his belt. Cole enters today's contest with a 3.18 ERA and he seemingly gets better and better with each outing. He is coming off of a great performance in St. Louis where he held a dangerous Cardinals lineup to just one run in seven innings. That was on the heels of a start in which Cole held the red hot Brewers to one run in eight innings. The Toronto Blue Jays will have the daunting task of going up against Cole today, and this will be the first time they have seen the young phenom. Advantage Cole for at least the first couple of times through the order. Brandon Morrow gets the ball for the Jays and he's coming off of the worst pitching performance in the majors this season. Morrow walked eight batters in just 2.2 innings of work before getting bounced against the Red Sox last week. He looked completely lost on the mound in that start and I don't think he has the confidence to turn things around right away. Morrow has struggled with consistency over the last few seasons and has a heavy 6.04 ERA in five starts this year. Last season he pitched just half a season after dealing with injuries and he finished with a 5.63 ERA. The Pirates haven't been hitting much this season, but they are a fairly patient team at the plate and should be able put some pressure on Morrow again. Morrow could get bounced very early again, which could make matters worse as the Jays pen has really been laboring of late. All signs point to a Pittsburgh victory today and we're on it as our May Game of the Week.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10-unit Play Take #971 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays have done it again. They've developed another young pitcher into a dominating force on the mound - Chris Archer. The 25-year old right-hander had a sensational rookie campaign last season posting a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. He has a great combination of hard-throwing stuff and intelligence in attacking opposing batters in the box. So far in 2014 he is off to another strong start at 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. More importantly, he has improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate as well. Confidence exudes from Archer and he is an undervalued commodity at the moment. Chicago has gotten off to a hot start at the plate, but I don't expect it to last. In 2013, the White Sox were dead last in runs scored; even behind the hapless Astros. They did add Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia (late in 2013) and Adam Eaton to improve the offense, but two of those guys are out for today's game (Garcia and Eaton). They'll send struggling rookie Erik Johnson to the hill today, and he doesn't appear ready for the big time just yet. He has a bloated 5.32 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four starts and has had spotty control. That's to be expected of a youngster, but it seems like the White Sox rushed him up a little too early when they had a hole in the rotation to fill. The Rays are one of the smartest hitting teams in the league and I expect them to get some good wood on the ball against Johnson. Take the Rays as our 10-unit Game of the Week.

10-unit Play Take #923 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) Baseball's best rivalry gets underway in Fenway as the Red Sox host the Yankees on Tuesday night. This one will be even bigger than usual as Masahiro Tanaka makes his first start of his career against Boston. Tanaka has arguably been the best pitcher in the majors so far this season. He comes in 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in three starts, but those numbers don't even do him justice. Tanaka has a ridiculous 28-2 K/BB ratio and his assortment of pitches has completely baffled the opposition. The Red Sox will surely be breaking down his first few outings with video, but Tanaka will still have the leg up for the first couple of times through the order. The Red Sox have also really struggled at the plate this season and are just 11th in the AL in runs scored through 19 games. Jon Lester goes for Boston and he's been pitching great as well. He's 2-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his four starts with a 29-4 K/BB ratio. Those numbers are definitely right up there with Tanaka, but the difference is that the Yankees will at least have a gameplan versus Lester based on a long history. New York also just welcomed back Mark Teixeira, and David Robertson is scheduled to come off the disabled list as well. Those are big boosts for a team that is already in first place in the AL East. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are still without Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks. The Yanks have the advantage on the mound today and are a bit healthier. More importantly, the price is right as Tanaka might not be an underdog for the rest of the season.

10-unit Play Take #930 Miami Marlins over Seattle Mariners (7:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners don't visit Miami often, but they begin a three-game series with the Marlins on Friday night. The Mariners are clearly an improved ballclub from last season. They added Robinson Cano and have several young pitchers on the rise that fans are excited about. But they are still a couple of pieces short and have some guys on the roster that are real head scratchers. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Chris Young. The nearly 35-year old has been in and out baseball over the last few years and his stuff has diminished considerably. With all of the injuries to the Mariners rotation, they decided to take a shot on him. But they probably would have been better-served going with one of their young arms in the minors. Young throws in the mid-80's and relies heavily on good control to get his desired results. He looked decent in his first start, but don't be fooled as he was fortunate more of his batted balls didn't fall for hits. There's a reason Young has been cut by several teams over the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, on the other side, Nate Eovaldi is coming into this own for the Miami Marlins. He had a nice breakthrough season in 2013 with a 3.39 ERA, and his stuff looks even better so far this year. In his first three starts, Eovaldi has a sensational 19-1 K/BB ratio and is doing a great job inducing ground balls. I expect him to be in the running for an All-Star nomination this season, and he should be able to dominate a weak Mariners lineup that only has one threat. Take Miami as our 10-unit Game of the Week.

4-unit Play #975 Kansas City Royals (-150) over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST) Rookie phenom Yordano Ventura makes his second start of the season today in Houston. The 22-year old fireballer has been clocked with the fastest fastball in the majors and was extremely impressive in his first outing versus the Rays. He went six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and no walks. It's going to take the league a while to adjust to the stuff that Ventura brings, so the Astros will be up against it today. They already have one of the worst lineups in the league and they strike out a ton. Only the White Sox have struck out more often in the AL, so Ventura should get to double digits in punch outs today. On the other side of the ledger is Lucas Harrell for Houston. Harrell quite honestly is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball and should be working in the minor leagues. Last season he carried a 5.86 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 36 appearances. So far in 2014, it's even worse. In two starts he has a robust 11.05 ERA and 2.73 WHIP and hasn't made it through the fifth inning. Those are probably the worst numbers you will ever see from a major league pitcher, so this is likely Harrell's last start in the rotation unless he completely turns things around today. Don't count on it, Kansas City should win this one in a laugher.