Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Big East Game of the Month on DePaul +10.5

The Key: The Creighton Bluejays cannot be trusted to lay double-digits on the road against anyone right now without star PG Mo Watson Jr.  They just haven't been the same without him.  After starting 18-1 with him, they are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS without him.  They did beat DePaul 83-66 without him, but that was at home and just 2 weeks ago, meaning the Blue Demons will be seeking revenge in the rematch.  I think they have what it takes to stay within double-digits at home this time around.  Take DePaul.

7* American Athletic Game of the Month on Temple +7.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are overvalued right now due to their 6-game winning streak.  Not only have they won 6 straight, but they've also gone 5-0-1 ATS during this stretch.  The betting public is all over them, driving this line all the way up to 7.5.  The Mustangs shouldn't be laying this kind of price on the road to the Temple Owls tonight.  Temple is 8-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average at least 16 assists over the last 2 seasons.  SMU is 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last 2 years.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Temple.

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +11

The Key: I love this situation for Iowa State.  The Cyclones will be hungry for a win off back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and WVU.  They will also be hungry after already narrowly losing to Kansas 72-76 at home on January 16th.  I like them here catching double-digits in the rematch.  The Jayhawks are in a letdown spot off back-to-back narrow wins over Kentucky and Baylor, two of the top teams in the country.  They won't be able to get up for Iowa State after facing those two teams.  Iowa State has only lost to Kansas once by more than 11 points in the last 9 meetings.  The Cyclones always play them tough.  The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  The Jayhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Iowa State.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Colorado State -1

The Key: Colorado State continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers today as only 1-point home favorites over Boise State.  The Rams have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall while beating both Utah State and San Diego State on the road outright as underdogs.  This stretch also includes a 73-74 loss at Boise State as 7.5-point dogs.  Now the Rams get the Broncos at home and will be out for revenge in the rematch.  Colorado State is 10-3 at home this season.  The Rams are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 home meetings with the Broncos.  The Rams are 6-0 ATS after 2 straight games with 12 or fewer assists this season.  Colorado State is 7-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take Colorado State.

7* Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington State +10.5

The Key: I don't think Arizona State should be laying double-digits to any team in the Pac-12.  The Sun Devils are just 10-11 this season and not that much better than Washington State, who is 10-10 and one of the most improved teams in the league.  The Cougars gave Arizona a fight on the road last time out and will certainly be able to compete with Arizona State here.  The Sun Devils are 3-16 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.  The Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.  Arizona State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games.  Take Washington State.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Florida State -3

The Key: After failing to cover the spread in 4 straight games, including outright road losses to UNC and Georgia Tech, I expect the Florida State Seminoles to put forth a big effort today.  They went through a grueling stretch of 4 straight ranked opponents, which explains their letdown last time out against Georgia Tech.  But that poor showing will have them refocused here and ready to go.  The Syracuse Orange are way down this season compared to years' past, while the Seminoles have their best team in recent memory.  FSU is 12-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.  Syracuse is 6-20 ATS in Saturday games over the last 3 years.  The Orange are 11-22 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons.  The Orange are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.  Take Florida State.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington State +23.5

The Key: The Arizona Wildcats are in a flat spot here against the Washington State Cougars.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 96-85 upset at UCLA as 5-point underdogs.  They will have a hard time getting up to play Washington State now, and that's going to make it very difficult to cover this 23.5-point spread.  The Cougars are a much-improved team this season that is senior-led and will be competitive in this game.  They have gone a respectable 3-4 in conference play this year.  Bets against home teams who have at least a +8 PPG differential on the season against a team with a PPG differential of -3.5 to -8, after scoring 95 points or more in their previous game are 70-35 ATS since 1997.  Take Washington State.

7* Creighton/Georgetown Big East *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgetown +2.5

The Key: Creighton just isn't the same without PG Mo Watson Jr., who was lost two games ago against Xavier.  The Bluejays went on to get upset at home in their first game without him 94-102 at home to Marquette.  Watson Jr. actually accounted for 38% of Creighton's points between his scoring and gaudy assist numbers.  Georgetown will pull the upset at home tonight.  The Hoyas are 5-1 SU in their last 6 meetings with Creighton, including 3 straight home victories in this series.  Take Georgetown.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Utah -3

The Key: The Utah Utes are absolutely flying under the radar right now.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They did lose 82-83 to UCLA, but the Bruins could be the best team in the country.  They beat Arizona State by 6 on the road, USC by 22 at home, and Washington State by a whopping 41 on the road during this stretch.  Washington is one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 with its only 2 wins coming at home against Oregon State and Colorado.  It lost on the road to both Cal and Stanford, while getting upset by Washington State at home as 12.5-point favorites and also losing to Oregon by 22 at home.  Utah won both meetings last year with Washington and will likely sweep the season series again this year.  The Utes have a much more complete team than the Huskies.  The Utes have 7 players averaging at least 9.5 points per game, while the Huskies are too reliant on freshman sensation Markelle Fultz.  The Huskies don't play defense as they give up 78.5 points per game, while the Utes score 80.9 points per game and allow just 65.9.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Huskies are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a home underdog.  Take Utah.

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Purdue -12

The Key: Purdue is coming off a 78-83 loss at Ohio.  The Boilermakers have now had 4 days off since that loss on Thursday, and I expect them to come out hungry for a victory at home here.  The Illinois Fighting Illini don't have the same luxury after losing 56-62 at home to Maryland on Saturday, only getting 2 days to prepare for Purdue.  And it's not like the Fighting Illini have shown anything worth wanting to back on the road.  They are 0-2 in true road games this year, losing by 16 at Indiana and by 25 at Maryland.  Chalk up another blowout road loss by the Fighting Illini after tonight.  Illinois is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better over the last 3 seasons.  The Boilermakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Purdue.

7* WCC Game of the Month on San Francisco +12.5

The Key: San Francisco is having a solid season at 11-6 this year.  The Dons are coming off back-to-back losses to the two best teams in the WCC in Gonzaga by 15 and St. Mary's by 11.  They'll clearly be battle-tested coming into this game against BYU, and I look for them to easily stay within the number here.  The Dons have been a tremendous road bet over the years.  They are 47-23-2 ATS in their last 72 games as a road dog.  The Dons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Cougars are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The road team is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  The Dons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to BYU.  Take San Francisco.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Arkansas -10

The Key: Arkansas is 9-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Florida.  Off a bad loss at Kentucky, the Razorbacks are now 1-2 in conference play.  That will have them playing with a sense of urgency here tonight against Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs are coming off a tremendous 95-78 win at LSU in their last game.  They won't be playing with the same sense of urgency after that upset victory.  Arkansas has owned Mississippi State in Fayetteville.  The Razorbacks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS int heir last 4 home meetings, winning by 14, 20, 26 and 10 points.  Look for this string of double-digit home wins over the Bulldogs to extend to 5 after tonight.  Take Arkansas.

7* Louisville/Notre Dame ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Notre Dame -1

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a perfect 9-0 at home this season.  Their only two losses this season came on neutral courts against two of the best teams in the land in Villanova (66-74) and Purdue (81-86).  Louisville has only played one true road game this season, which was a lackluster 79-70 win over Grand Canyon.  Notre Dame is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home meetings with Louisville.  The Cardinals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Fighting Irish are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Take Notre Dame.

7* Thursday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on George Washington +14.5

The Key: Miami has been one of the most overvalued teams in the country.  The Hurricanes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, time and time again failing to cover big numbers.  They won by 12 over Rutgers as 14.5-point favorites, won by 17 as 19-point favorites over Wofford and won by 20 as 20.5-point favorites over Florida Atlantic in their three most recent non-covers.  Now they're laying 14.5 points to a George Washington team that won the NIT last year and is better than this line would suggest.  Three of the Colonials' 4 losses this season have come by 8 points or less.  The only exception was  19-point loss to a very good Florida State team.  The Colonials are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Hurricanes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take George Washington.

7* Kentucky/Louisville ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Louisville +2

The Key: Kentucky is coming off a 103-100 win over North Carolina on Saturday in what was one of the best college basketball games you could ever witness.  Malik Monk scored 47 points, including the game-winner for the Wildcats.  Off such an huge win like that, I can only think the Wildcats will suffer an emotional letdown here.  They will still get up to play Louisville, but I think the Cardinals will want this one more, especially after losing four straight to the Wildcats in this series.  All four losses have come by 8 points or less, including a 73-75 road loss last year, so they've been right there with a chance to win.  I look for the Cardinals to get over the hump here and get the victory.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS at home this season, winning by an average of nearly 27 points per game.  Take Louisville.

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee Tech +16

The Key: I don't expect Tennessee to show up for this game at all.  The Volunteers are coming off a crushing 71-73 loss at North Carolina on Sunday after blowing a big lead in the second half.  After playing a national power like the Tar Heels just two days ago, the Vols will come out flat here tonight against Tennessee Tech.  Tennessee Tech has only lost one game by more than 15 points this season despite their 4-7 overall record.  The Vols are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after covering five straight and playing UNC tough.  Tennessee is 5-19 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.  Tennessee Tech only lost 58-61 as 13-point dogs in its last trip to Tennessee.  Take Tennessee Tech.

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on North Dakota State +18

The Key: North Dakota State has been one of the best small school programs in the country throughout the years.  They nearly made their 3rd straight NCAA Tournament appearance last season, falling just short with a loss to rival South Dakota State in the Summit League Championship Game.  They brought back 4 starters from that team and 3 key reserves who all averaged at least 6.3 points per game last year.  They're 5-2 this season thus far and looking to hang with a Top 25 program like Xavier.  I think this is a bad spot for Xavier,  After playing Missouri, Clemson, and Northern Iowa (twice) in their last 4 games, and with huge road games against both Baylor and Colorado on deck, this could be a sandwich game for the Musketeers.  I don't expect them to bring the kind of effort it's going to take to beat this solid NDSU outfit by more than 18 points tonight.  The Musketeers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Summit League foes.  Take North Dakota State.

7* NCAAB Wednesday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -7

The Key: The Houston Cougars took a big leap forward last season in Kelvin Sampson's second year.  They went 22-10 and are going to make a run at the NCAA Tournametn this season with 3 starters back, including Damyean Dotson (13.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Rob Gray Jr (16.0 PPG) and Galen Robinson Jr (7.9 PPG, 3.4 APG).  The Cougars are 4-0 this season and winning by 29.2 points per game.  They covered easily in their two games with point spreads, beating George Mason 93-56 as 12-point favorites and South Dakota 85-58 as 13.5-point favorites.  Vermont is off to a 5-1 start but overvalued as its loss came by 22 points as 4.5-point dogs to a down Providence team.  The five wins have come against Quinnipiac, Marist (by 4), Wofford (by 1) and Hofstra.  The Catamounts are outclassed here.  Vermont is 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 games following a win.  The Cougars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Sampson is 11-1 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in 2 straight games in all games he has coached.  Take Houston.

7* UNC/Villanova *HEAVY HITTER* on UNC -2

The Key: North Carolina is the one team without any weaknesses in the NCAA Tournament.  That's why it is still alive and playing for a national title.  The Tar Heels have the best big men in the country, and Marcus Paige and Joel Berry II have really stepped up their games in the tournament.  Villanova has arguably the best guards in the land, but it is going to be at a serious disadvantage inside.  Daniel Ochefu is their only big man of any significance, and he isn't going to be able to hold his own against Carolina.  Coming into the Syracuse game, the Tar Heels were getting offensive rebounds on 46 percent of their misses.  The Tar Heels will own the paint in this game, and thus they will be crowned your 2016 national champions.  Take North Carolina.

7* Villanova/Oklahoma Final Four *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova -2

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats are showing solid value as only 2-point favorites over the Oklahoma Sooners.  They have certainly been the most impressive team in the tournament thus far, beating the likes of Miami and Kansas in the last two rounds.  The win over Kansas is the significant because it is a Big 12 opponent, and one that went 2-0 against Oklahoma this year.  The Wildcats play as a team, which makes them a lot more dangerous than the Sooners, who are too reliant upon Buddy Hield.  Take Villanova.

7* UNC/Notre Dame Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on UNC -9

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have been rolling of late.  They have won 8 in a row.  They won the ACC Tournament, and they haven't had to break a sweat in the NCAA Tournament.  They have won all 3 NCAA Tournament games by 15 points or more.  That trend will continue tonight against Notre Dame, which could have lost each of its first 3 games in the NCAA Tournament.  The Fighting Irish have won their 3 games by a combined 13 points.  They last lost to UNC in the ACC Tournament by 31 points.  A repeat performance can be expected here as they take a huge step up in competition.  Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season.  Take North Carolina.

7* Kansas/Villanova Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas -2

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats are obviously on fire right now.  But they haven't played a team that D's you up quite like Kansas, and that will be the difference in this game Saturday.  The Jayhawks have actually had the tougher path in my opinion with their last two games coming against UConn and Maryland, and they won those games by 12 and 16 points, respectively.  The Jayhawks only allow 39.7% shooting on the season, which is very impressive when you consider they play in the Big 12.  They also only allow only 6 made 3-pointers per game and 32.3% shooting from distance.  The key to stopping Villanova is defending the 3-point line, and not many teams do it as well as Kansas.  Not to mention, the Jayhawks put up 81.9 points per game on 49.6% shooting offensively, so they are pretty much unstoppable at that end.  Kansas is 7-0 ATS in Saturday road games this season.  The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this year.  Take Kansas.

7* Iowa State/Virginia Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +6

The Key: Getting 6 points with Iowa State in a game that they will likely win outright tonight is simply too much.  All you have to do is look at how their season has gone to find that there is value in getting 6 points.  All 11 of Iowa State's losses this season have come by 10 points or less, and a whopping 7 of those have come by 5 points or fewer.  This team simply does not get blown out.  They have a Top 3 offense in the country that will test Virginia's pack-line defense.  The Cyclones have 6 different players who can beat you, which makes them so tough to stop.  Butler hung tough with Virginia for 40 minutes, and the Bulldogs are similar to ISU in that they shoot the 3-pointer well, which gives you a chance against Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest over the last 3 years.  Take Iowa State.

7* Miami/Villanova Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova -4

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats have absolutely been on fire this month.  They have shot at least 48% from the field in 7 of their last 8 games, and their No. 1 scoring defense in the land continues to shut down opponents.  A big reason for their efficient offense is that they share the ball better than anyone left in the Sweet 16, averaging far and way more assists than any other team since the beginning of March.  I believe the Wildcats are really on a mission because they had the most to prove coming into the tournament.  The next victim is going to be Miami, which struggled to get by both Buffalo and Wichita State to get here.  The Wildcats are also an excellent free throw shooting team, and if this game comes down to it, they'll put it away at the line.  Plus, Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 vs. teams who shoot 77% or better from the free throw line.  Take Villanova.

7* St. Mary's/Valparaiso NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Valparaiso -3.5

The Key: Valparaiso is 16-1 at home this season and laying only 3.5 points to St. Mary's Tuesday in NIT action.  The Crusaders have had 4 days' rest in between games having last played on March 17, while the Gaels have only had 1 days' rest in between games having last played on March 20.  This rest advantage is a big reason why I'm backing the Crusaders in a game that would otherwise be pretty evenly-matched.  The Crusaders are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. teams who win at least 80% of their games on the season.  They have played their best against the best competition.  Take Valparaiso.

7* GW/Monmouth NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Monmouth -2

The Key: The Monmouth Hawks have gone on the road and beaten USC, Notre Dame, UCLA and Georgetown this season.  They are a very good team and arguably the biggest snubs of the NCAA Tournament Field.  But they are glad to be playing in the NIT anyway, and they proved that with their 10-point win over Bucknell.  George Washington doesn't even want to be here and was nearly upset in a 2-point home win over Hofstra.  This is a very short number for Monmouth to have to cover considering it is at home and the better team.  The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. teams who win more than 60% of their games, while the Colonials are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who win more than 60% of their games.  Take Monmouth.

7* Providence/UNC Round of 32 *BAILOUT* on Providence +10.5

The Key: Providence is good enough to beat any team in the country, including UNC.  The good news is that it doesn't have to win to cover this massive 10.5-point spread.  The Friars have arguably the best 1-2 punch in the land in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil, which gives them a chance to beat anyone.  We saw them go on the road and beat Villanova earlier this season.  We are seeing this team hit its stride with wins in 5 of its last 6 games with its only loss coming by 8 points to Villanova as 8.5-point dogs in the Big East Tournament.  UNC looked vulnerable only up 41-40 at halftime on Florida Gulf Coast, only to put them away in the 2nd half and win by 16 as 23.5-point favorites.  The Friars are 9-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Friars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  The Tar Heels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.  The Tar Heels are 6-13 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more this season.  Take Providence.

7* Friday NCAAB *UPSET SPECIAL* on Northern Iowa +4.5

The Key: The Northern Iowa Panthers are a live underdog who I believe will pull the 11/6 upset Friday.  They have made noise in the big dance before in knocking off Kansas a few years ago.  Few teams have better wins than they do.  The Panthers have beaten North Carolina, Iowa State and Wichita State (twice).  They can clearly hang with a Texas team that comes in having lost two out of its last three by a combined 46 points.  Northern Iowa has gone 12-1 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  It is 8-0 ATS versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15 games this season.  The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Longhorns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.  Take this combined 33-1 angle in favor of the Panthers straight to the bank Friday.  Take Northern Iowa.

7* NCAAB 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence -2

The Key: Providence comes in having won 4 of its last 5 games overall while going 5-0 ATS in the process.  The Friars are getting back to playing like they were when they started 14-1.  Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil may be the best 1-2 punch in the tournament.  USC comes in having lost 7 of its last 10 games with all seven losses by at least 7 points each.  The Trojans are just 5-10 in all road games this season.  Their only significant win away from home came against a Wichita State team that was without Fred VanVleet.  The Friars already beat Arizona from the Pac-12 on a neutral court, while the Trojans lost to Xavier from the Big East by 10 on a neutral floor.  Providence is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.  Take Providence.

7* AAC Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +5.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the AAC Championship Game against UConn.  Memphis has won its last 3 games by 20, 22 and 30 points, respectively.  Now the Tigers have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament with a win Sunday, and they won't blow this opportunity.  The UConn Huskies are already in the big dance no matter how this game turns out.  While they didn't show effects from the 4 OT game yesterday, I believe their 3rd game in 3 days here will finally get the best of them.  Memphis should be fresh with the ease of which it has won the last 2 days.  UConn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off 3 or more straight wins.  Take Memphis.

7* UConn/Temple AAC Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple +2

The Key: UConn played 4 overtimes yesterday in a 104-97 win over Cincinnati.  It's safe to say that they won't have much left to give today against Temple.  The Owls just keep flying under the radar this season.  They won the American Athletic, earned the No. 1 seed in this tournament, dismantled South Florida by 17 yesterday, and now they're underdogs to a team that just played 4 overtimes?  Give me a break.  Take Temple.

7* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina -1.5

The Key: South Carolina will be playing its 1st SEC Tournament game today, while it will be up against a Georgia team that will be playing its 2nd in 2 days.  Georgia expended a lot of energy in its 91-83 win over Ole Miss yesterday.  South Carolina has every reason to be motivated to bolster its NCAA Tournament chances, and to also avenge two earlier losses to Georgia this season, including a 2-point loss last Thursday.  Take South Carolina.

7* Big 12 Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on West Virginia -14.5

The Key: The West Virginia Mountaineers are playing for a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Look for them to make easy work of lowly TCU, which just upset Texas Tech yesterday and won't have much gas left to go up against this fierce WVU press.  WVU just beat TCU 73-42 on February 13 in their last meeting, and a similar blowout can be expected in the rematch.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Take West Virginia.

7* Pac-12 Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -2

The Key: The USC Trojans are one of the final teams in the field as of today according to Joe Lunardi.  But a loss to UCLA could put them on the wrong side of the bubble.  The Trojans simply must take care of business tonight,a nd they'll be focused to do so.  They get to play a UCLA team that is really struggling, going 0-4 in its last four games overall.  They also get to play a team they have owned this year.  The Trojans are 2-0 against the Bruins this season with both wins coming by a combined 33 points.  Given what's at stake, that trend should continue.  The Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following 3 or more consecutive ATS losses.  UCLA is 0-9 ATS vs. teams who attempt 62 or more shots per game this season.  Take this 15-0 angle in favor of the Trojans straight to the bank.  Take USC.

7* East Tennessee State/UT-Chattanooga *HEAVY HITTER* on UT-Chattanooga -4.5

The Key: Chattanooga has dominated the series this season and while you may have heard the old adage that it's hard to beat a team three times - it simply isn't true.  In fact, most of the time, the team that has won the first two games is simply the better team.  We are getting some great line value here as well with East Tennessee State on a six game winning streak against the spread and Chattanooga on a five game ATS losing streak.  The spread won't matter, the winner covers here.  Take Chattanooga.

7* Cincy/SMU AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -1.5

The Key: This line is off considering the Bearcats lost by just two at SMU in January as 6-point underdogs.  Cincy is a significantly better team at home than on the road, while 3 of SMU's 4 losses have come on the road  Take Cincinnati.

7* Kansas/Iowa State Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +11

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones are showing excellent value as double-digit road dogs to the Kansas Jayhawks.  Kansas just clinched the Big 12 title in their last game and has little reason to want to put away the Cyclones by more than 12 points today.  Take Iowa State.

7* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -3.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is 16-1 at home this season.  They have dominated all comers at home, and they are going to win at home again Friday as they host Ball State.  They lost by 4 at Ball State a few weeks ago, but they had won four straight meetings with the Cardinals prior.  On Senior Night, the Huskies will cap off an awesome season at home with a 17-1 record while also covering the 3.5-point spread.  The Huskies are 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 home games  Take Northern Illinois.

7* Missouri Valley Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Missouri State -2

The Key: At 12-18 on the season, the Missouri State Bears are far and away the superior team over the 7-23 Drake Bulldogs.  That has been proven in their two regular season meetings, and it will be proven again tonight.  Drake finished just 2-16 in conference play in the regular season, while Missouri State finished 8-10.  The Bears won both meetings with the Bulldogs by 9 points each, winning 79-70 on the road and 61-52 at home.  Drake is 0-10 ATS revenging a loss where it scored less than 60 points this season.  Take Missouri State.

7* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -1.5

The Key: Alabama has given itself a chance to make the NCAA Tournament thanks to a recent 6-2 run that features wins over Texas A&M, Florida and LSU.  The Crimson Tide are 10-3 at home this season and should handle their business at home tonight against Arkansas.  After all, the Razorbacks are 2-11 in all games played away from home this season.  Arkansas has been historically one of the worst road teams in the country, too, going 68-111 ATS in its last 179 road games.  The Crimson Tide are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -4.5

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes really need a win tonight against Indiana to get back on track.  They have lost three straight by a combined 16 points and have simply choked late in games.  But I look for a big performance from them tonight on Senior Night.  The Hawkeyes are 13-1 at home this season and will have a huge advantage on their home floor tonight.  Indiana already clinched a share of the Big Ten Title and won't be as focused in this game.  Iowa will want it more as it actually has a chance to win a share itself if it wins out and has Indiana lose to Maryland next game.  Indiana is 1-9 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent over the last 2 seasons.  Indiana is 2-10 ATS in road games off a win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  Iowa is 8-1 ATS in home games vs teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa.

7* Syracuse/UNC ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse +13.5

The Key: The Syracuse Orange are fighting to make the NCAA Tournament.  They will likely need to win one of their last two games here to get in without making a run in the ACC Tournament.  They lost two in a row before bouncing back with a 75-66 home win over NC State Saturday.  Now they'll be out for revenge on the Tar Heels, who turned a tie game at halftime into an 84-73 road win in their first meeting this season.  That was the first game back for Jim Boeheim, but the Orange have pretty much been rolling ever since.  They are a much better team now than they were in the first meeting.  This is also a sandwich game for UNC.  The Tar Heels lost a hard-fought 74-79 road game at Virginia on Saturday, and now they'll be looking ahead to their season finale against rival Duke next.  They won't give Syracuse the attention it deserves tonight as a result.  The Orange are 8-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games this season.  The Tar Heels are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference home games.  Take Syracuse.

7* Louisville/Miami ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3

The Key: Getting Miami as only a 3-point home favorite over Louisville is a gift.  The Hurricanes are 14-1 at home this season and have not lost at home in ACC play, going 8-0 with most of those wins coming via blowout.  Louisville is just 4-5 on the road this season.  The Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games, while the Hurricanes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less.  Take Miami.

7* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Bonaventure -6.5

The Key: At 18-7 on the season, St. Bonaventure is on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  It needs a strong finish to do so and cannot afford to lose to Duquesne tonight.  St. Bonaventure has won 6 of its last 7 games overall, which includes road wins over the top two teams in the Atlantic 10 in Dayton and St. Josephs, so it is arguably playing better than anyone in the conference right now.  Duquesne has lost 5 straight coming in an has nothing to play for as the season winds down.  St. Bonaventure is 11-2 at home this season.  The Bonnies are 8-1 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last 2 seasons.  The Bonnies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Bonnies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Take St. Bonaventure.

7* Texas/K-State Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +1.5

The Key: The Texas Longhorns are showing excellent value today as underdogs to the Kansas State Wildcats.  While the Longhorns are a team fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, the Wildcats are out of that mix.  Texas will be motivated for a win after a 1-3 stretch with losses to Oklahoma, Iowa State and Baylor.  Now the Longhorns get to take a step down in competition against the Wildcats, who are just 4-10 in Big 12 play this season.  Kansas State is coming off a deflating loss to Kansas, and I don't expect it to show up tonight.  The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  Take Texas.

7* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +8

The Key: The Boston College Eagles should not be 8-point underdogs to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons Sunday.  This is a matchup between two teams who have little to play for at this point in the season, and I like siding with the dog in these situations.  The Demon Deacons have lost 11 straight and should not be favored by 8.  Wake Forest is 1-8 ATS in all home games this season.  The Demon Deacons are 0-7 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 years.  Take Boston College.

7* Pitt/Syracuse ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -3

The Key: The Syracuse Orange are 14-4 with Jim Boeheim on the sidelines, and 4-5 without him.  He has made all the difference for this team as he has turned the Orange from an NCAA Tournament afterthought into a real contender to make the big dance.  The Orange have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Virginia and Louisville.  Pitt has lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in and its last two wins have come against VA Tech and Wake Forest, including an overtime victory at home over the Demon Deacons.  The Panthers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games with their only win coming by 2 points at Florida State.  Pitt is 6-24 ATS following a win over the last 2 seasons.  The Panthers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a conference win.  Take Syracuse.

7* Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -12

The Key: The Arizona Wildcats have simply owned the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tucscon in this rivalry in recent years.  The Wildcats are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with the Sun Devils with 4 of those 5 victories coming by 15 points or more and by an average of 17.2 points per game.  The last two have come by 24 and 23 points.  The Wildcats already beat the Sun Devils by 12 on the road in their first meeting this season.  Take Arizona.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +15

The Key: The Rutgers Scarlet Knights want revenge on the Illinois Fighting Illini tonight.  These two teams played in one of the most thrilling games of the season in their first meeting.  Illinois ended up walking away with a triple-overtime victory at Rutgers.  I can't see the Illini being too motivated for the rematch, especially with the awful season they are having.  They are just 11-14 on the season and 3-9 within the conference.  That's why they have no business being favored by 15 points against anyone, not even Rutgers.  Bets on road underdogs of 10 or more points when revenging a same season loss, who are off 2 consecutive losses by 10 or more points to conference opponents are 212-133 ATS since 1997.  The Fighting Illini are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games.  Illinois is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games.  Take Rutgers.

7* Oklahoma State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State +15

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks are in a prime letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 76-72 triumph at Oklahoma on Saturday to move into a first-place tie with West Virginia in the Big 12.  It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown after such a big win, which is going to make it hard for them to cover this 15-point spread against Oklahoma State.  After all, Oklahoma State already beat Kansas 86-67 at home in their first meeting this season on January 19.  The Cowboys have played the Jayhawks very tough in recent meetings. They haven't lost by more than 12 points to Kansas in any of the last 9 meetings, and they haven't lost by more than 15 in any of the last 12 meetings.  Take Oklahoma State.

7* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +20

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers have not won a single game in Big Ten play this season, but it certainly hasn't been for a lack of trying here of late.  In fact, the Gophers have lost 6 of their last 7 games all by 8 points or less.  That includes road losses at Indiana by only 6 and at Michigan by only 5.  They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 20-point spread tonight.  Iowa is in a hangover spot here off its tough loss at Indiana on Thursday.  The Hawkeyes are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss.  Iowa is also 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games after allowing at least 80 points.  The Gophers are 10-4-1 ATS in in their last 15 road meetings at Iowa.  Take Minnesota.

7* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -5.5

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are 11-3 at home this season.  They have gone 5-1 at home in ACC play alone with huge wins over Louisville, Duke, Miami, Pitt and Florida State.  Those are five of the better teams in the ACC.  Now the Tigers get to face once of the worst teams in the conference in Georgia Tech tonight.  The Yellow Jackets are 2-5 in road games this season and 3-8 in ACC games.  Clemson is 11-1 in its last 12 meetings with Georgia Tech, so it has clearly had the Yellow Jackets' number.  This series mismatch will continue this afternoon.  Take Clemson.

7* USC/Arizona State Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -1

The Key: I expect the USC Trojans to put a similar beat down on the Arizona State Sun Devils to the one they did in their first meeting this season in early January.  The Trojans won that game 75-65 at home on January 7th in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  USC is 18-5 on the season and 7-3 in Pac-12 play, while ASU is just 13-11 SU & 3-8 in conference action.  Two of the Sun Devils' conference victories have come against Washington State, too.  Arizona State is coming off a win over WSU, but it is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after a conference win.  Meanwhile, USC is 12-1 ATS after playing a home game this year.  Take USC.

7* FSU/Syracuse ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -2.5

The Key: Syracuse comes in red hot and looking for more tonight when it hosts the Florida State Seminoles.  The Orange have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall, and they've won 4 straight home games by 22, 15, 3 and 8 points.  Look for them to continue to roll tonight against the Seminoles, who they have owned the past two seasons.  Syracuse won 70-57 over FSU at home last year and 74-58 on the road in 2014.  The The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Syracuse.

7* Texas/Oklahoma ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +8

The Key: Shaka Smart has shown that he's among the best head coaches in the country with what he's been able to do with Texas this year.  After a slow start, the Longhorns have really turned it on in Big 12 play and currently sit at 16-7 on the season.  The Longhorns have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall with their only loss coming by 9 points at Kansas as 12-point dogs in a game they actually led most of the way.  They have road wins over Baylor (67-59) and West Virginia (56-49) during this stretch.  I look for them to go on the road and keep this game close against Oklahoma for 40 minutes, possibly pulling out the upset in the end.  The Longhorns are 10-0 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  The Sooners are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.  Oklahoma has a big game on deck against Kansas that it could be looking ahead to as well.  Take Texas.

7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on California -7.5

The Key: Off back-to-back road losses to Utah and Colorado, it's safe to say that the Cal Bears won't be lacking any motivation today at home against Stanford.  Adding to their motivation is the fact that they already lost 71-77 at Stanford in their first meeting, so they'll be out for revenge here.  I expect them to win going away because they are back home, where they are a perfect 13-0 on the season and winning by 15.8 points per game.  Stanford is just 1-4 in true road games this season.  The Cardinal are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games.  The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Stanford is 0-7 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Take California.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +8.5

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers are still winless in Big Ten play.  But it's not for a lack of trying.  Their last 5 losses have come by 7, 5, 5, 4, and 6 points.  That includes narrow road losses to both Indiana and Michigan.  They are fighting for that first conference win and will continue to tonight.  They should have a good chance of getting it against a Northwestern team that is not very good.  The Wildcats are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall with three straight losses by at least 14 points coming in.  Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Northwestern is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  Take Minnesota.

7* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Michigan -2

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos are simply a superior team to the Eastern Michigan Eagles and should be favored by more Saturday.  They have crushed the likes of Northern Illinois (83-69) and Buffalo (91-71) at home recently, and another blowout can be expected here.  Eastern Michigan is 0-4 in its last four games overall,  The Eagles are 3-7 on the road this season with their only wins coming at Nebraska-Omaha, Coppin State and Central Michigan.  But the biggest reason I like the Broncos is the fact that they are 17-2 SU in their last 19 home meetings with the Eagles.  They simply do not lose at home to little brother, Eastern Michigan.  Take Western Michigan.

7* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -11

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs are pissed off after blowing a big lead late against St. Mary's on Thursday.  They will respond in a big way Saturday on the road at lowly Pacific, which is just 6-12 on the season.  Gonzaga has owned Pacific, going 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings with all 5 victories coming by 12 points or more.  The Bulldogs have won those 5 meetings by 12, 31, 17, 22 and 18 points.  Take Gonzaga.

7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State -8.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are going to be hungry for a victory tonight when they host the Washington State Cougars.  They have lost three straight coming into this game to open 0-3 within the conference.  But those three losses came to three of the best teams in the Pac-12 with a home loss to Arizona, and road losses to both USC and UCLA.  They were competitive in all three games as all three losses came by 12 points or less.  Now they get the opportunity to get on track against one of the worst teams in Pac-12 in Washington State.  The Cougars are 1-2 in conference play despite playing three games at home.  They will now be playing just their second true road game of the season.  Their first was ugly as they were upset at Idaho 74-78 despite being 8.5-point favorites.  Arizona State is 12-5 SU & 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Washington State.  The Cougars are 9-21-4 ATS in their last 34 road games.  The home team is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 visits to ASU.  Take Arizona State.

7* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas State -1

The Key: Arkansas State comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 3-0 in its last 3 games overall with a 10-point home win over Central Arkansas, a 3-point road win at Troy, and a 22-point road win at South Alabama.  The home/away discrepancy between LA-Monroe and Arkansas State is a huge factor here.  Arkansas State is 4-1 at home this season, while LA-Monroe is 1-7 on the road with its only win coming against Northwestern State.  The Red Wolves are a perfect 9-0 SU in their last 9 home meetings with LA-Monroe since 1997.  That record, more than anything, is the reason for this play.  Take Arkansas State.

7* Florida/Tennessee ESPN2 National TV *Annihilator* on Tennessee +4.5

The Key: Rick Barnes stepped into a good situation at Tennessee with 4 starters back from last year, and a solid recruiting class.  The Vols have been ultra-competitive this season even though they are just 7-6 on the year.  Their six losses have come to Georgia Tech, George Washington, Nebraska, Butler, Gonzaga and Auburn.  All six of those losses came on the road, and all six came by 11 points or less, including five by 8 points or fewer.  That's pretty impressive to play all six of those teams down to the wire.  Florida has only played three true road games this season, losing two with its only win at Navy in the season opener.  The Vols are 7-0 at home this season.  The Vols are 31-9 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog.  Florida is 4-14 ATS following a win over the last two seasons.  The Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 trips to Tennessee.  Take Tennessee.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Vanderbilt -8.5

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the best teams in the country.  They have gone 6-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in lined games.  Their only two losses this season came on the road to Kansas (63-70) and Baylor (67-69) by a combined 9 points.  Those are also two of the best teams in the land.  Vanderbilt's numbers are out of this world.  It is scoring 83.4 points against teams that allow 73.5 points, and allowing 60.6 points against teams that average 79.3 points.  After the loss to Kansas, Vanderbilt bounced back with a 102-52 home win over Detroit.  I look for the Commodores to bounce back from their loss to Baylor in a big way at home tonight.  Dayton is 6-1 this season, but I can't take the Flyers seriously when they lost to Xavier 61-90 two games back.  Plus, this will be their first true road game of the season in a hostile atmosphere.  The Commodores are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season winning by 33.0 points per game.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  Take this combined 19-1 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* Duke/Wisconsin Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -1

The Key: Wisconsin has had the much tougher path to reach the Championship Game.  It has beaten North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky in its last three games.  Duke, on the other hand, has had a pretty easy path to get here.  It has faced Utah, Gonzaga and Michigan State in its last three contests.  I love the Badgers' ability to space the floor, their elite rebounding, and their carefulness as they simply do not turn the ball over.  Those three factors will be big in them beating the Blue Devils in the Championship Game, especially the rebounding.  Wisconsin is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 against the ACC.  Yes, it lost to Duke earlier this season, but it is 6-0 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years.  It is also 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or fewer over the past two seasons.  Take Wisconsin.

7* Michigan State/Duke Final Four *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke -5.5

The Key: Duke has really stood above the competition in a big way so far in the NCAA Tournament.  It beat Robert Morris by 19, San Diego State by 19, Utah by 6, and Gonzaga by 14 to get here.  Even that game against the Utes wasn't all that close as it became close late.  The Blue Devils are now 16-1 in their last 17 games.  Each of their last nine wins have been by 5 points or more as few have even been close, which is indicated by the fact that they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Michigan State hasn't been dominant at all in the tournament as it could have easily lost all four games in which it won.  All four wins came by 7 points or fewer, including an overtime win over Louisville in the Elite 8.  Tom Izzo is 1-8 all-time against Mike Krzyzewski.  These teams played back on November 18th with Duke winning 81-71 on a neutral court.  I just believe that Duke has the most talented starting 5 in the tournament, and its talent will be too much for an undermanned Michigan State squad that is lucky to be here.  Duke is also 10-0 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Take Duke.

7* Stanford/Miami NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +2

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes have improved to 25-12 on the season thanks to a 7-1 run over their last eight games.  Their only loss came to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament by seven points, which is the same ND team that not only won the conference tournament, but also nearly upset Kentucky in the Elite 8.  I really like the resolve the Hurricanes have shown in coming from behind to beat Richmond and Temple in their last two games.  They have held a rebounding advantage in eight consecutive contests entering this game against Stanford.  The Cardinal were able to play three straight home games to get to the NIT semifinals, I don't believe their path to get here has been as difficult as Miami's.  The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following two straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals.  Take Miami.

7* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple -1.5

The Key: Temple has really impressed me down the stretch.  It was one of the biggest NCAA Tournament snubs this year, and it is playing like it has something to prove thus far in the NIT.  Back-to-back blowout wins over George Washington by 13 and Louisiana Tech by 18 show what kind of passion this team is playing with right now, because those are two quality squads.  But the Owls' great play extends back much further.  They have now gone 14-3 in their last 17 games.  Miami, meanwhile, has been fortunate to reach the semifinals of the NIT.  It has won all three of its games by 7 points or fewer, including a 4-point home win over lowly NC Central.  The Owls are 10-3 ATS following a win by 10 points or more this year.  Take Temple.

7* Duke/Gonzaga Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga +3

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs are 35-2 on the season.  Their two losses this year were very close as they lost by just 3 points to BYU and in overtime to Arizona on the road.  They have dominated thus far in the NCAA Tournament, winning all three games by double-digits with a 10-point win over North Dakota State, a 19-point win over Iowa and a 12-point win over UCLA.  What I love about the Bulldogs is that they have no weaknesses.  They are very strong on the inside, which will be key in this game to stop Duke's Jahlil Okafor.  They have great guard play led by Kevin Pangos, and they have a shutdown defender in Gary Bell Jr.  The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in road games against teams that outscore the opposition by 12 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Take Gonzaga.

7* Elite 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +11.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are playing for their head coach right now.  Mike Brey lost his mother on the day of their Round of 32 win over Butler.  The Fighting Irish laid it all on the line for him once they found out after the game, and they responded with an 81-70 win over Wichita State in the Sweet 16.  But this is a team that has been playing well for quite some time now.  They have reeled off 8 straight wins, which includes victories over Louisville, Duke, UNC and Wichita State all by 8 points or more, and all away from home.  Notre Dame is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, which is the type of team it's going to take to beat Kentucky.  It shoots 51.1% from the field and 39.2% from 3-point range as a team while averaging over 78 points per game.  The Fighting Irish can make the the Wildcats take one of their big guys out because they play essentially four guards and small forwards alongside center Zach Auguste.  They almost at all times have four players who can shoot the 3-pointer on the floor.  This is the toughest matchup the Wildcats have had perhaps all season.  Notre Dame is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams that shoot at least 45% and allow their opponents to shoot 42% or less.  It has great against some of the best teams in college basketball this season, and I look for Saturday's Elite 8 showdown to be no different.  Take Notre Dame.

7* UCLA/Gonzaga Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -8.5

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the real deal this season.  This is the best team that Mark Few has ever had.  They throttled Iowa 87-68 in the Round of 32, and I believe another beat down of UCLA is in store.  After all, the Zags were the only team to hand UCLA a home loss this season, and they did so impressively.  They won 87-74 at UCLA back on December 13th.  The Bruins are clearly better now than they were at the beginning of the season, but I don't believe they are good enough to stay within single-digits of the Zags on a neutral court this time around.  Gonzaga is outscoring the opposition by a ridiculous 18 points per game this year.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in road games after five straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last three years.  Take Gonzaga.

7* Xavier/Arizona West Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -11

The Key: The Arizona Wildcats should have been a No. 1 seed.  They have played as well as anyone outside of Kentucky this season.  In fact, the Wildcats' three losses this season have been by a combined 9 points.  They have won 13 straight coming into this one with 11 of those coming by double-digits.  That includes a 21-point win over Texas Southern in the opener and a 15-point win over Ohio State last round.  Xavier doesn't belong in the Sweet 16.  It was gifted its spot in the Sweet 16 thanks to drawing a tired Ole Miss team and a Georgia State team that pulled off a miracle upset over Baylor the round prior.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 against teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game.  Take Arizona.

7* CBI Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +1

The Key: Louisiana-Monroe (23-12) has saved its best basketball for last.  It has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall with its only loss coming to a very good Georgia Southern team by a final of 43-44 as 3-point underdogs in the Sun Belt Tournament.  It beat Eastern Michigan 71-67 before going on the road and topping Mercer 71-69 in the opening two rounds of the CBI, pulling off upsets as underdogs in both games.  Another outright win as a dog is in store here.  The Warhawks are 13-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per game.  Vermont (20-13) is just 7-9 on the road this season.  The Catamounts are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.  The Warhawks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.  LA-Monroe is 8-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

7* SDSU/Duke South Region *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +9

The Key: San Diego State (27-8) dominated St. John's in a 76-64 victory in the Round of 64.  Its offense really got going as four players scored in double figures, which is a promising sign for an Aztecs' team not known for their offense.  Look for the Aztecs to show the Blue Devils a thing or two about defense in this one.  They rank 2nd in the country in scoring defense at 53.5 points per game.  The Blue Devils are a great offensive team, but they don't play much defense.  This number has been inflated due to Duke's 29-point win over lowly Robert Morris last round, but now they take a huge step up in competition.  San Diego State is 7-0 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season.  Take San Diego State.

7* UAB/UCLA South Region *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA -6

The Key: UCLA is coming off a huge upset win over No. 6 SMU thanks to the hot shooting of Bryce Alford, who connected on 9-of-11 from 3-point range for 27 points.  Look for the rest of these UCLA players to contribute against much less competition in UAB (20-15) today.  The Bruins are now 10-4 in their last 14 games overall.  Two of their losses came to Arizona by 10 points or less, and the other two were on the road at Cal and at Stanford by two points.  It's safe to say that they are playing their best basketball of the season.  Iowa State gave away the game to UAB in the opener.  Iowa State was a 14-point favorite in that game, and UCLA is only a 6-point favorite in this game.  I believe UCLA and Iowa State are similar teams talent-wise, and thus this spread being eight points less shows that there's value with the Bruins.  The Bruins are 13-2 ATS off a game where they made 50% or better from 3-point range.  UCLA is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take UCLA.

7* NCAA East Region *HEAVY HITTER* on UC-Irvine +8

The Key: The UC-Irvine Anteaters opened my eyes in the non-conference schedule.  They only lost by 17 to Arizona on the road, by 3 at St. Mary's, and by 2 at Oregon in overtime.  They also beat Bradley and Wisconsin-Green Bay at home.  Louisville is an excellent defensive team, but it has been terrible on offense this season since Chris Jones was suspended.  The Cardinals rank 211th in the country in field goal percentage at 42.9%.  Irvine is 7-0 ATS against good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  The Anteaters are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Irvine is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UC-Irvine.

7* NCAA South Region GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +14

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones are a team that loves to play from behind.  They are inconsistent and cannot put away teams early.  They have actually trailed by double-digits at some point in each of their last five games, but have gone 5-0.  While they may not trail for long in this game, I don't expect them to beat UAB by a wide margin.  The Blazers have only been beaten by this margin twice all season, and those came against Wisconsin and UNC.  Their last six losses have come by 4 points or less or in overtime.  They haven't lost a game by this margin in 2015.  UAB is 10-1 ATS against teams with winning records after 15 or more games this season.  Take UAB.