Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Oakland/Cleveland State Horizon League *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland State -2

The Key: The Cleveland State Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They are 18-7 SU & 16-8-1 ATS.  I cashed them in a short price yesterday as 3.5-point favorites over Wisconsin-Milwaukee.  I like the short price we are getting on the Vikings again today against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies.  They already beat Oakland twice on the road in their first two matchups this year.  I see no reason anything will change here in the championship game.  The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.  The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games against teams that shoot 42% or worse and allow 45% or higher.  The Vikings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that are outscored by 4 PPG or more on the season.  Take Cleveland State.

7* Horizon League *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland State -3.5

The Key: The Cleveland State Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They are 17-7 SU & 15-8-1 ATS.  I like the short price we are getting with the Vikings today over the Milwaukee Panthers.  After beating Milwaukee 64-53 in their first matchup this year, the Vikings got out to a 34-23 halftime lead the next day.  They then took their foot off the gas and the Panthers came back to win 81-80.  The Vikings won't be letting up today and that was clearly a letdown spot.  Cleveland State is 7-0 ATS when attempting to avenge a loss this season.  The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  The Vikings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off an ATS loss.  Take Cleveland State.

7* Texas Tech/Baylor Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas Tech +8

The Key: Baylor has only covered one of its last four gams and that was an overtime win against West Virginia.  They didn't even come close to covering against Iowa State and Kansas as they lost outright to the Jayhawks and only beat the Cyclones by 5.  And now they are laying 8 points to a Texas Tech team that has only 2 losses by more than 8 points all season.  The Red Raiders have won and covered 3 straight games with their 3 wins coming by a total of 56 points.  They are ready to give the Bears a run for their money today.  Texas Tech is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against good teams that win by 8-plus PPG on average 15 or more games into the season.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against good offensive teams that score 77-plus PPG 15 or more games into the season.  Texas Tech is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games road underdogs.  Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Texas Tech.

7* Illinois/Ohio State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio State -2

The Key: Ohio State is looking to erase the sour taste of 3 consecutive defeats.  The Buckeyes got some much needed rest as they have had the last 5 days off to rest up and get healthy.  They are primed for a great showing against Illinois today.  The Fighting Illini are unlikely to have Ayo Dosunmu back today and are in a letdown spot off 3 straight wins, including the blowout victory over Michigan.  The Buckeyes will be hungry because of those 3 straight losses, plus trying to get a Top 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and the fact that it is Senior Day.  The Buckeyes have won 4 of the last 5 matchups in this series, including their 87-81 win at Illinois in their first matchup this year.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a loss as a favorite.  Take Ohio State.

7* Georgia Tech/Wake Forest ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech -9

The Key: The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They have won 5 straight games including impressive wins over Duke and Virginia Tech.  They are fighting hard to make the NCAA Tournament down the stretch and cannot afford a slip up against Wake Forest.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the Demon Deacons have already quit on their season.  They have lost 6 straight games and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Each of their last 5 losses have come by 13 points or more and by 22.8 PPG on average.  The Yellow Jackets already beat them by 16 at home in their first matchup this year.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Boise State +6.5

The Key: The Boise State Broncos will be hungry to avenge their overtime defeat to the San Diego State Aztecs in their first matchup on February 27.  I can't believe the books have come back with the same line here as they were 6.5-point dogs in that first matchup as well.  Boise State isn't going to shoot as poorly as they did in that first matchup as they shot just 36.4% and still forced OT.  The Broncos are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games off a loss.  Take Boise State.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon -3

The Key: The Oregon Ducks have won 3 straight coming in with double-digit wins over Washington and ASU as well as an upset road win at Arizona.  They are playing their best basketball of the season now that they are 4 games removed from their last COVID pause.  And now they have their sights set on avenging a 72-79 loss at Colorado in their first matchup.  The Buffaloes are just 17-43 ATS in their last 60 road games.  The home team is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 matchups.  The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups.  The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home matchups with the Buffaloes.  Take Oregon.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +5

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans have won 2 in a row and are making a push to make the NCAA Tournament.  Now it's time for them to avenge their 78-84 road loss at Iowa last week.  The Spartans come back as 5-point home dogs here.  That's significant when you consider Michigan State is 17-1 SU in its last 18 home matchups with the Hawkeyes.  This line is way off for a Hawkeyes team that has dropped 4 of its last 6 games coming in.  The Spartans should be the favorites in this matchup and don't be afraid to bet a percentage of your wager on the money line as well.  Take Michigan State.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming +7.5

The Key: Wyoming will be looking to avenge its 72-74 home loss to Colorado State as identical 7.5-point dogs on Thursday.  The Cowboys blew a 38-32 halftime lead in that contest and allowed the Rams to shoot 55.1% while they shot 42.6% themselves.  Just a slight improvement will have them covering this spread again and possibly winning outright.  The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games when avenging a same-season loss.  The Cowboys are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as underdogs.  The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 matchups.  Take Wyoming.

7* UNLV/Nevada Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Nevada -2

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Nevada.  The Wolf Pack are coming off 2 straight upset losses at Wyoming.  But each of their last 5 losses have come by 7 points or fewer.  That's how close they are to being on an 11-game winning streak.  UNLV is starting to get some respect after going 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against a very soft schedule.  They starting 1-6 this season prior to this run.  Injury news favors the Wolf Pack as well.  They will get Meeks (9.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) back from a 3-game absence, and Cambridge Jr. (15.2 PPG) is probable.  UNLV's best player in Hamilton (18.3 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury suffered in a loss to Utah State last time out.  He had just 2 points in 32 minutes of action against the Aggies, so it clearly affected his play.  The Wolf Pack are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after playing a road game.  The Rebels are 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 road games against a team with a winning home record.  The Wolf Pack are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites.  Take Nevada.

7* Wisconsin/Maryland Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -2.5

The Key: I like the situation for the Wisconsin Badgers tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Ohio State.  They also were upset by this same Maryland team as 10-point home favorites back on December 28th.  Now they will avenge that defeat and they are only 2.5-point favorites this time around.  That's a 7.5-point adjustment.  Wisconsin hasn't lost 2 in a row all season.  They are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their 3 games after a loss this year.  The Badgers are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games off a SU loss.  The Terrapins are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games as home underdogs.  Maryland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games off a SU win.  Take Wisconsin.

7* Providence/Creighton Big East *HEAVY HITTER* on Providence +9.5

The Key: Providence wants to avenge a 65-67 loss to Creighton at home a couple weeks ago.  The Friars were only 4-point dogs in that game, and now they are 9.5-point dogs here.  The Friars haven't been getting blown out at all lately as they haven't lost any of their last 9 games by more than 10 points.  And Creighton just was upset by Butler without Marcus Zegarowski, who averages 14.1 PPG and is questionable to play tonight.  Zegarowski had 20 points against the Friars in their first matchup so he's clearly very important to the Bluejays' success.  The Friars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when avenging a same-season loss.  They are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when avenging a loss overall.  Creighton has only won 1 of its last 7 matchups with Providence by double-digits.  Take Providence.

7* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio State -4.5

The Key: The Ohio State Buckeyes want to avenge their 60-67 loss at Purdue in their first matchup on December 16 this season.  The Buckeyes shot just 37.9% from the field and 6-of-24 (25%) from 3-point range.  They have been a different team since and are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games with a 79-68 win at Rutgers as a 3.5-point dog, an 81-71 home win over Northwestern as an 8.5-point favorite and an 87-81 win at Illinois as an 8-point dog.  Purdue hasn't been great on the road with losses to Illinois by 8, Rutgers by 5 and Iowa by 15.  The Boilermakers are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 27-12 ATS in the last 39 matchups. Purdue is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after going over the total in its last game.  The Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games off an ATS win.  Take Ohio State. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson +2

The Key: Clemson is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS this season, including 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home.  And now they are getting no respect again as home underdogs to Virginia.  The Tigers have had 10 days to get ready for the Cavaliers after last playing on January 5th.  Virginia only has 2 days to get ready for Clemson after beating Notre Dame on Wednesday.  That's a big advantage for the Tigers.  Clemson is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games off a conference win.  Virginia is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as home underdogs.  Take Clemson.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming +9.5

The Key: Boise State is getting too much respect from the books due to its 10-game winning streak.  The Broncos will now have to take on a hungry Wyoming team looking to avenge its loss in the first game in this matchup on Monday.  Boise State won the first matchup by 23 points, but it was a 5-point game with under 8 minutes to play.  And the Broncos have failed to cover in the last 2 times they've been in this situation.  They beat San Jose State by 52 and came back and won by just 1 point in the rematch.  They beat Air Force by 19 and came back and won by 11 in the rematch.  And this game will be decided by 9 points or fewer to give the Cowboys the cover.  The Cowboys are a sensational 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games revenging a loss in the same season.  Take Wyoming.

7* Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +6.5

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs will be looking to avenge a 78-82 home loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in their first matchup this year.  This is a TCU team that has gone 5-2 SU in their last 7 games overall with their only losses coming to the 2 best teams in the Big 12 in Baylor and Kansas.  The Horned Frogs won't have to face Oklahoma's 2nd-leading scorer in Brady Manek, who is out with COVID.  He averages 13.4 PPG this year and had 14 points and 6 boards in their first matchup this season.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games.  The Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that wins more than 60% of their road games.  Take TCU.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas -6.5

The Key: Kansas had its wake up call with a 25-point home loss to Texas two games back, its worst home loss in program history.  The Jayhawks bounced back with a 93-64 win at TCU as a 6-point favorite.  And now they are short 6.5-point home favorites against Oklahoma.  The Jayhawks have won 9 of their last 10 games overall, so that performance against Texas was an aberration.  Oklahoma just lost by 15 at Baylor and hasn't fared well at Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 16-0 SU in their last 16 home matchups with Oklahoma dating back to 1997.  Oklahoma is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games off a loss by 10 points or more.  The Sooners are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against good offensive teams that score 77 PPG or more.  Take Kansas.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Louisville -4

The Key: Virginia Tech is overrated due to its 8-1 record this season.  This will actually be the Hokies' first true road game this season, and it comes against one of the best teams in the ACC in Louisville.  The Cardinals are 7-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road at Wisconsin.  They will make easy work of the Hokies, which has been a yearly tradition for them.  Louisville has won 16 straight matchups with Virginia Tech, most recently a 68-52 home win in March of 2020.  Virginia Tech hasn't beaten Louisville since 1991.  The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  Take Louisville.

7* Kansas/TCU Big 12 *BAILOUT* on Kansas -5.5

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off their worst home loss in program history to Texas.  Their only other loss this season came to top-ranked Gonzaga.  They will be fired up to bounce back here against an overrated TCU team that has won 5 straight against suspect competition coming in.  The Jayhawks have won 16 of their last 17 matchups with the Horned Frogs.  The Jayhawks are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning record.  Kansas is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games off a loss by 20 points or more.  Take Kansas.

7* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland +5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers are playing well enough since they opened Big Ten play to warrant being 5-point favorites over Maryland in this matchup.  The Hoosiers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall with their lone win coming in overtime over Penn State 87-85 as 6.5-point favorites.  They were upset at home by Northwestern 67-74 as 9-point favorites and also failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs at Illinois.  Maryland is 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games.  The Terrapins only lost by 3 as 6-point dogs at Purdue, upset Wisconsin 70-64 as 10-point dogs and lost to undefeated Michigan 73-84.  Maryland is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last 3 matchups with Indiana.  Take Maryland.

7* Northeastern/Syracuse NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -17.5

The Key: Syracuse is 4-1 this year with 3 wins by 30 or more points.  Their only loss came to Rutgers, which just beat Maryland by 14 on the road and is one of the better teams in the country.  They rebounded with one of the best performances of any team this season with a 101-63 win over Boston College.  And now they should make easy work of Northeastern.  The Huskies brought back just 2 players who averaged more than 3.5 PPG last season.  They are inexperienced and have just 2 games under their belts, a home-and-home with UMass.  Syracuse is 7-0 all-time against Northeastern, including 3-0 ATS in the last 3 matchups with a 72-49 win in their most recent showdown in 2018.  The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win.  The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS win.  Take Syracuse.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Furman +6.5

The Key: Furman is 5-1 this year and outscoring opponents by 24.1 PPG.  They have picked up right where they left off.  They won 23 games in Bob Richey’s first season, then proceeded to tie a school record with 25 wins each fo the last 2 seasons.  They returned 4 starters and 3 double-digit scorers from last year’s team that went 25-7.  And their only loss this season came on the road to a solid Cincinnati team by a final of 73-78.  Alabama is just 3-2 with an 18-point loss to Stanford and an 8-point loss to Stanford.  I think the Crimson Tide are getting too much respect from the books here against a Furman team that is very capable of winning this one outright.  Plus the Crimson Tide are coming off that huge rivalry game against Clemson and have an even bigger game on deck this weekend against No. 6 Houston.  This is a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Alabama is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Furman is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games.  The Paladins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a home win where they scored 85 or more points.  Take Furman.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Stephen F. Austin +23.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Baylor.  They are disappointed they didn’t get to play Gonzaga over the weekend due to COVID.  And they will have a hard time getting up emotionally to play Stephen F. Austin tonight.  Especially since they have their Big 12 opener on deck this weekend against Texans.  But the Lumberjacks aren’t a team to be taken lightly.  They went 28-3 last year and won 27 or more games for the 6th time in 8 seasons.  They returned 3 of their top 4 scorers from that 28-win team, too.  And they are primed to give No. 2 Baylor a run for its money tonight.  The Lumberjacks have handled their business at 3-0 with 3 wins by double-digits.  Stephen F. Austin is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 PPG or more.  The Lumberjacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Stephen F. Austin.

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -10

The Key: Head coach Nate Oats brings back 4 of his top 6 scorers from last year led by John Petty Jr. and Jaden Shackelford, who combined for 30 PPG and 11 RPG last year.  After crushing Jacksonville State 81-57 as 20.5-point favorites, the Crimson Tide fell apart against Stanford yesterday with a 64-82 loss.  They shot terrible at 35.8% from the field and gave up 51.7%.  But their defense has been good at forcing turnovers as they have forced 42 in the first 2 games.  And they will be looking to bounce back in a big way today against a UNLV team that is terrible.  UNLV lost 78-91 as a 12.5-point favorite to Montana State in their opener and were routed 51-78 as a 13-point dog to North Carolina yesterday.  They lost basically everyone other than Bryce Hamilton from last season.  They have committed 35 turnovers in 2 games, so they are sure to not handle the pressure of Alabama very well.  Once UNC turned up the pressure yesterday they crumbled.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take Alabama.

7* NCAAB Dog of the Week on South Dakota State +10.5

The Key: South Dakota State went 22-10 last year and now returns all 5 starters.  They return Conference Player of the Year Douglas Wilson, who averages 18.7 PPG and 6.4 RPG last year.  He and fellow big man Matt Dentlinger combined to shoot 62.8% from the field.  Dentlinger averaged 12.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG.  Sophomores Alex Arians and David Wingett combined for 17.4 PPG and 11.3 RPG last year while both shooting at least 35% from 3-point range.  Noah Freidel averaged 12.2 PPG and shot 39.5% from 3 and 85.2% from he line.  And they have good depth with Baylor Sheierman (6.0 PPG) and Tray Buchanan (6.3 PPG).  The Jackrabbits are live underdogs tonight, and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a dog.  Take South Dakota State.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +9.5 

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be nearly double-digit underdogs to the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.  They beat Alabama 87-79 as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina 83-74 as 5-point home dogs to close out the season.  And they are now 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.  Arkansas is just 4-9 ATS on the highway this year and this will basically be a road game for the Razorbacks being played in Nashville.  The Razorbacks have lost 5 straight road games by 8, 10, 14, 21 and 4 points.  Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 75 or more points in 2 straight games.  They are yielding 88.7 PPG in their last 3 games and cannot be trusted to get enough stops defensively to cover this huge number.  Take Vanderbilt. 

7* Virginia Tech/UNC ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -4 

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 4 games all by 6 points or more.  And they were competitive in their road loss at Duke over the weekend.  The Tar Heels are a dangerous team in this ACC Tournament because they finally have their best player in Cole Anthony healthy, who averages nearly 20 PPG.  They didn’t have Anthony when they lost 77-79 at Virginia Tech in their lone matchup this year.  They will avenge that loss in blowout fashion with Anthony this time.  The Hokies have lost 10 of their last 12 games overall.  Virginia Tech is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  Take North Carolina. 

7* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois -3.5 

The Key: Illinois wants to avenge its 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd.  The Fighting Illini are 14-3 at home this year and were are getting them very cheap tonight.  The home team has won and covered 4 straight matchups in this series.  The Hawkeyes are 2-7 SU in Big Ten road games this year with an average loss of over 12 PPG.  Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference home loss.  The Hawkeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a home loss.  Take Illinois. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Year on Missouri State -2.5 

The Key: The Missouri State Bears have a huge rest advantage over the Valparaiso Crusaders today.  They’ve only had to play one game in the MVC Tournament and just blitzed Indiana State 78-51 yesterday so they were able to rest their starters late.  Valpo has been in 2 dog fights with a 58-55 win over Evansville on Thursday and a 74-73 (OT) win over Loyola-Chicago Friday.  They used a ton of energy coming back from 14 points down at halftime against Loyola and obviously playing OT would have zapped even more energy out of them.  And Missouri State wants to avenge its 89-74 loss at Valpo on February 25th less than 2 weeks ago.  The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  Missouri State is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less.  The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their lat 10 games off a win by 10 points or more and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Valpo is 1-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 years.  Take Missouri State. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Nebraska +17 

The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a nice bet on the road this season because they are consistently catching too many points and never quit.  Despite being just 2-11 SU in all games played away from home, the Huskers have gone 9-4 ATS.  They have only beaten beaten by more than 17 points on the road 3 times, and two of those were 19-point losses.  They have hung within 6 of Indiana, 5 of Northwestern, 12 of Ohio State, 3 of Rutgers, 2 of Maryland and 12 of Illinois in Big Ten road games this season.  Michigan was just upset at home by Wisconsin 74-81 and got blown out at Ohio State 63-77 in its last 2 games.  The Huskers are 7-1 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days this year.  The Huskers are 8-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this year.  Take Nebraska. 

7* Dayton/Rhode Island Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Rhode Island +4.5 

The Key: The Rhode Island Rams (20-8) are squarely on the bubble now after losing at home to a very good Saint Louis team on Sunday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against Dayton tonight.  They want to avenge their 67-81 road loss at Dayton in which they shot just 28.8% from the field and 20% from 3-point range.  They aren’t going to shoot that poorly again at home, where they are 12-2 SU this year.  Dayton has already wrapped up the Atlantic 10 and won’t be that hungry to beat Rhode Island for a 2nd time this year.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss.  The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when revenging a loss where the other team scored 75 points or more.  The Flyers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Rhode Island. 

7* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on Richmond -5.5 

The Key: The Richmond Spiders are on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  They can’t afford a slip up here down the stretch of the regular season.  Richmond is 22-7 on the season, 12-4 in conference play and 13-2 at home.  The Spiders went on the road and beat Davidson 70-64 in their first matchup.  They won’t have much of a problem winning by 6 points or more in the rematch at home.  Davidson just gave up 72.3% shooting to Dayton on the road Saturday and lost by 15.  They have a problem defending, which is not a problem Richmond has.  Davidson is 5-12 SU & 4-13 ATS in all road games this year.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road dog.  The Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.  Take Richmond. 

7* Minnesota/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -5 

The Key: No team is playing better than the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with road wins over Nebraska by 17 and Michigan by 7 as well as home wins over Ohio State by 13, Purdue by 4 and Rutgers by 8.  Now they want to avenge their 52-70 road loss at Minnesota as 1-point favorites on February 5th in the game that preceded this winning streak.  Wisconsin is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home matchups with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers led the entire way against Maryland last time out but lost on a last-second 3-pointer 73-74.  They have no chance of making the NCAA Tournament now and I question their motivation.  It’s always tough to come back from a last-second loss in a game you should have won.  Wisconsin is 13-1 SU at home this year while Minnesota is 2-8 SU in true road games.  The Gophers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on USC -3 

The Key: The USC Trojans are trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and have consistently been lacking respect from oddsmakers.  That showed Thursday when they upset Arizona 57-48 getting 4.5 points at home.  And they only lost by 2 at Arizona State in their first matchup.  USC is 12-2 at home this year and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  The Trojans have won 17 of their last 21 home matchups with Arizona State.  Take USC. 

7* Arizona State/UCLA Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on UCLA -3.5 

The Key: The UCLA Bruins have improved rapidly in the first season under Mick Cronin and are now on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  They get their next 2 games at home against ASU and Arizona and have a big opportunity to add some quality wins.  The Bruins are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They are looking to avenge one of their rare losses during this stretch February 6th at Arizona State.  UCLA has won 16 of its last 20 home matchups with the Sun Devils.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups.  UCLA is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off a conference win.  Take UCLA. 

7* Rutgers/Penn State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State -5 

The Key: Penn State wants to avenge its road loss at Rutgers earlier this year.  The Nittany Lions also want to bounce back from 2 straight losses at home to Illinois and on the road to Indiana.  They had gone 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their previous 8 games in the most impressive stretch in the Big Ten this season, so they were due for a few bad games.  But they’ll get back on track tonight against a Rutgers team that is just 1-7 SU in true road games this year with he only win coming at lowly Nebraska.  The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS after playing a road game this year.  Take Penn State. 

7* American Athletic Game of the Year on SMU -4 

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 14-1 at home this year and 6-0 at home in conference action.  Off 2 bad road losses in a row, the Mustangs will be hungry for a win when they host the Memphis Tigers Tuesday.  And I think it’s a bad spot for Memphis off their upset home win over Memphis.  They have won their last 2 games both at home by a combined 5 points.  Bets against underdogs off 2 consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against a team that is off a road loss by 20 points or more are 26-6 ATS since 1997.  The Mustangs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home matchups with Memphis.  Take SMU. 

7* Oklahoma State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State +14.5 

The Key: This game has letdown written all over it for Kansas.  The Jayhawks just went on the road and beat #1 Baylor in a 64-61 thriller to move into a first-place tie.  They won’t be able to get up for Oklahoma State, who they already beat by 15 on the road earlier this year.  This letdown situation won’t allow them to cover this lofty 14.5-point spread.  And the Cowboys are completely different team than the one that loss to Kansas on January 27th.  Oklahoma State is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall with its only losses coming on the road to Baylor by 8 and at WVU in a game they led at halftime.  They also upset Kansas State on the road, while beat TCU by 15, Texas Tech by 3 and Oklahoma by 17 at home.  Bets on dogs of 10 to 19.5 points that went under the total by 24 or more points in their last 3 games against an opponent that went under the total by 42 or more point sin their last 7 games are 59-16 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Oklahoma State. 

7* Rutgers/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -4.5 

The Key: This is about as easy as it gets.  Wisconsin is 12-1 at home this year while Rutgers is 1-8 in all road/neutral games.  The only road win for Rutgers this year came at lowly Nebraska.  The Badgers want to avenge their 65-72 road loss at Rutgers in their first matchup this season.  Rutgers is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games off 2 straight games where they attempted 12 or fewer free throws.  Wisconsin is 76-45 ATS in its last 121 home games off a home win.  The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina PK 

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are making their usual late-season push under head coach Frank Martin.  No team has improved more in the SEC as the season has gone on than the Gamecocks.  They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games while winning those 5 games by 14.6 PPG.  That includes an upset home win over Kentucky.  Now they host a struggling LSU team that has gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games with its only win coming by 4 points at home against Missouri as 11-point favorites.  They are coming off a home loss to Kentucky, and it’s going to be hard to get as motivated to face South Carolina tonight.  The Gamecocks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off a conference loss.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take South Carolina. 

7* VCU/Saint Louis Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Saint Louis +2 

The Key: The Saint Louis Billikens are 12-3 at home this year with all 3 losses to very good teams in Dayton, Seton Hall & Duquesne.  VCU is 4-6 in all road games this year and just lost to Rhode Island by 12 and Richmond by 18 in their last 2 road games.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  VCU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 this year.  The Billikens are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as a dog.  Take Saint Louis. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Oregon State +11 

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are coming off a 22-point home loss to Colorado that has them lacking respect from oddsmakers tonight as double-digit dogs at Arizona.  The Beavers had won 3 of their previous 4 games including a road upset of Stanford and a home upset of Oregon.  They also beat Utah by 19.  We’ll chalk that Colorado loss up to a one-time stinker and not indicative of what this team is moving forward.  Arizona is getting too much respect off road wins and covers over Cal and Stanford.  Their last two home games they failed to cover, losing outright to UCLA 52-65 as 12.5-point favorites and narrowly beating USC 85-80 as 10-point favorites.  Oregon State beat Arizona 82-65 at home as 4-point dogs in their first matchup this year on January 12th.  The Beavers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games off 2 consecutive home games.  Arizona is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.  Oregon State is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games off an ATS loss.  Bets against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent that’s off a home blowout loss by 20 points or more are 42-15 ATS since 1997.  Take Oregon State. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech -3.5 

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies want to avenge their 61-71 loss at Miami on January 28th in their first matchup this year.  Miami is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 ACC road games losing by an average of a whopping 18.2 PPG.  Virginia Tech is 11-4 at home this year.  Miami is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after playing 2 consecutive games as a favorite.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -10.5 

The Key: West Virginia will be playing with a chip on its shoulder tonight.  The Mountaineers opened 18-4 this year but have now lost 3 straight games.  That’s easily explainable considering they faced the 2 best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Baylor and also lost at Oklahoma.  Now they get to take one one of the worst teams in the conference in Oklahoma State to get back on track.  They already beat the Cowboys 55-41 on the road in their first matchup this year.  The Cowboys are just 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in Big 12 play this year.  The Mountaineers are 12-1 at home this year with their only loss coming after a big blown lead to Kansas late in the second half.  West Virginia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS loss.  The Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Take West Virginia. 

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas -16 

The Key: Iowa State has played 2 games since the season-ending injury to their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (15.2 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.9 RPG).  They lost by 29 at Oklahoma and beat Texas by 29 at home.  So which team can we expect from the Cyclones moving forward? I think it’s the one that lost by 29 to Oklahoma.  The Cyclones shot 57.1% against Texas and faced a Longhorns team missing several key players due to injury.  They simply aren’t better without Haliburton, one of the best players in the country, and that will show tonight at Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS in Big 12 play this year with their only loss to Baylor.  They are coming off a 17-point home win over Oklahoma, which just beat Iowa State by 29.  And we can expect a 17-plus point victory tonight.  Kansas already won 79-53 at Iowa State in their first matchup this year.  The Cyclones are 2-10 ATS as underdogs this year.  The Jayhawks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games when playing their 3rd game in a week.  The Cyclones are 2-8 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this year.  Iowa State is 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  The Jayhawks are 45-21-3 ATS in their last 69 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Kansas. 

7* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -5 

The Key: Minnesota has had over a week to prepare for Iowa having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only gets 2 days to prepare for Minnesota having last played on February 13th in a 77-89 road loss to Indiana.  The Hawkeyes have been atrocious on the road in conference play this season.  They are just 1-6 SU in Big Ten road games this year with their only win coming at Northwestern, which is 1-13 in conference play.  Minnesota is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this year.  They won’t have to face Iowa’s CJ Fredrick, who averages 10.7 PPG and is their best shooter hitting 46.7% from 3-point range.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Hawkeyes are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 road games.  The Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Missouri Valley Game of the Year on Loyola-Chicago -1.5 

The Key: Loyola-Chicago is 6-0 at home in MVC play this year while winning by 14.5 PPG.  The Ramblers want to avenge their 62-67 (OT) loss at Northern Iowa on January 26th and stay alive for the MVC title.  This game means everything to them and we should see a big effort from them as a result.  Loyola-Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 matchups with Northern Iowa with both losses coming on the road in overtime.  The Ramblers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 home matchups with the Panthers.  The Ramblers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when revenging a road loss.  The Panthers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Saturday road games.  Take Loyola-Chicago. 

7* UIC/Wright State Horizon League *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois-Chicago +11 

The Key: Illinois-Chicago is really getting disrespected here as a double-digit underdog to Wright State tonight.  UIC is 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall with one of its losses coming by a single point.  That includes their 76-72 upset win as 6.5-point home dogs to Wright State in their first matchup this year on January 12th.  That makes UIC now 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last 3 meetings with Wright State despite being underdogs in all 3 matchups.  UIC is 7-1 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in a week this year.  The Flames are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games off an ATS win.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Illinois-Chicago Friday. 

7* Iowa/Indiana Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana -1.5 

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers are hungry for a win after dropping 4 straight against a tough schedule.  The Hoosiers are 12-3 at home this year and we are getting them at a great price against Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this year.  They even lost at Nebraska and their only win came against Northwestern, the two worst teams in the conference.  Iowa is 7-21 ATS in all road games over the last 3 years.  Take Indiana. 

7* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -5 

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats have lost a season-high 3 straight games to drop to 17-6 on the year.  They will be more hungry for a win tonight than at any other point this season because of it.  And they also want to avenge a 60-71 loss at Marquette in their first matchup this year on January 4th.  Villanova has won 11 of its last 13 home matchups with Marquette, including 6 straight home wins in this series by 6 points or more and by an average of 13.0 PPG.  Marquette has won 3 straight coming in and won’t be able to match the intensity of the Wildcats.  Villanova is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games after 15-plus games against good rebounding teams (+4 RPG or more).  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after 15-plus games against teams who average 6 steals/game or more.  The Wildcats are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games off a loss.  Take Villanova. 

7* Michigan State/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois +2 

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans continue getting more respect than they deserve from the books as road favorites over Illinois tonight.  The Spartans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They were upset on the road by both Wisconsin and Michigan, and they were also upset at home by Penn State as 8.5-point favorites.  Yes, the Spartans will be hungry for a win now, but they just aren’t that good.  Illinois will be hungry for a win as well after 2 straight losses to 2 of the best teams in the Big Ten in Iowa and Maryland.  They had won 7 straight games prior to those 2 defeats.  Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as a favorite.  The Spartans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Illinois. 

7* ACC Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -2 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers are in need of a win here after dropping 3 of their last 4.  But all 3 losses were on the road to Syracuse, Duke and Notre Dame and they were competitive in all 3.  Pitt is 10-4 at home this year and will handle Georgia Tech today.  The Yellow Jackets have won 3 of their last 4, but all 3 wins came at home.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -2 

The Key: Illinois is competing for a Big Ten regular season title this year thanks to winning 7 of their last 8 games overall.  And the Fighting Illini want to avenge their 58-59 loss at Maryland on December 7th where they blew a 14-point halftime lead.  We’re getting the Illini cheap at home tonight considering they are 12-1 at home this year, including 5-0 at home in Big Ten play.  Illinois gets more time to prepare for this game as well after playing on Sunday while Maryland just played on Tuesday.  The revenge, the extra rest and the big home court edge all add up to what should be a comfortable win for the Fighting Illini.  Take Illinois. 

7* USC/Arizona ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on USC +10 

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the USC Trojans tonight.  They are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in a 57-78 loss to Colorado.  I think we’re getting a few more points than we should on them now.  Arizona is coming off two straight impressive road wins over Washington and Washington State and you’re paying a tax on them now.  USC is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals.  Arizona is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games after having won 3 of its last 4 games.  USC is 8-2 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this year.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in road games against teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers this year.  USC is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Take USC. 

7* Iowa/Purdue Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Purdue -4 

The Key: Purdue has gone 16-1 SU in its last 17 Big Ten home games and holds one of the best home-court advantages in the conference.  They beat Michigan State by 29 and Wisconsin by 19 at home this year.  Iowa is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Big Ten road games this year with losses to Michigan by 12, Penn State by 3, Nebraska by 6 as 8-point favorites and Maryland by 10.  Their lone road win came against Northwestern, which is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten.  Purdue is 13-4 SU & 10-7 ATS in its last 17 home matchups with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Iowa is 16-37-2 ATS in its last 55 road games against a team that wins more than 60% of their home games.  The Boilermakers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Purdue. 

7* Ohio State/Michigan Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan -2.5 

The Key: Ohio State is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Big Ten road games this year with those 4 losses all coming by 12 points or more.  Their only conference road win came at terrible Northwestern.  The home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last 8 matchups.  Take Michigan. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas State +7.5 

The Key: Kansas State is 8-3 at home this year.  The Wildcats have been very impressive in their last 2 home games.  They beat West Virginia 84-67 as 7-point dogs and topped Oklahoma 61-53 as 2-point favorites.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games while playing about as difficult a schedule as you can play with WVU twice, Kansas, Alabama and Oklahoma.  They are now ready to try and take down the #1 team in the country in Baylor.  It will be a great atmosphere tonight and huge advantage for the Wildcats playing at home. Kansas State is 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 matchups with Baylor, so they match up well with the Bears because of their physicality.  Take Kansas State. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Mississippi State -5 

The Key: Mississippi State is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They have gone 4-2 SU but 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.  Their only two losses both came on the road by a single point to LSU (59-60) and Oklahoma (62-63).  They also went on the road and beat Florida (78-71) as 6-point dogs.  And the Bulldogs are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home during this stretch with wins over Arkansas (77-70), Georgia (91-59) & Missouri (72-45) by an average of 22 PPG.  Now they’ll handle a down Tennessee team that just lost at home to Texas A&M (58-63) as 9.5-point favorites.  The home team has won 5 of the last 6 matchups.  The Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Mississippi State. 

7* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Stanford -6.5 

The Key: Stanford is back home following a 3-game road trip where they lost their final 2 games by a combined 6 points.  They’re hungry and back home where they are 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this year with their only loss coming to Kansas.  Now they face a struggling Oregon State team that is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  They haven’t even been very competitive with 4 losses by 6 points or more, including a 20-point home loss to USC and a 13-point road loss at Washington State.  Stanford is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 matchups with Oregon State with all 4 wins by 9 points or more.  The Cardinal are 28-9 ATS in their last 37 home games.  Take Stanford. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington State +2.5 

The Key: Washington State is coming off 2 straight road losses and is now back home where it is 9-2 this season.  The Cougars have won their last 3 home games over UCLA, Oregon and Oregon State despite being underdogs in all 3.  And they won those 3 games all by 8 points or more.  Arizona State is coming off a huge 66-65 win over rival Arizona, setting the Sun Devils up for a letdown spot.  The Sun Devils are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as road favorites.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home underdogs.  Take Washington State. 

7* Loyola-Chicago/Northern Iowa MVC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Iowa -4 

The Key: Northern Iowa lost both meetings with Loyola-Chicago by a single point last year. The Panthers want to avenge those losses and show that they are the new kings of the Missouri Valley with a win and cover Sunday.  Northern Iowa is 10-0 at home this year and winning by 15.4 PPG at home.  Loyola-Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Panthers are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take Northern Iowa. 

7* MVC Game of the Month on Indiana State -2.5 

The Key: Indiana State is 7-0 at home this year and ready to take down Bradley.  The Braves have just 2 road wins this year over Missouri State and Evansville.  Indiana State has won 17 of its last 22 home matchups with Bradley.  The Braves could be without their top 2 scorers in Childs and Brown, who combine to average 28.4 PPG.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 60 points or less in their previous game.  Take Indiana State. 

7* Marquette/Butler Big East *HEAVY HITTER* on Butler -6 

The Key: The Butler Bulldogs opened 15-1 but have now lost 3 straight.  They’ll be hungry for a win tonight as they host the Marquette Golden Eagles.  Butler is 9-1 at home this year and winning by 18.0 PPG.  Marquette is 2-3 in true road games with losses to Wisconsin by 16, Creighton by 17 and Seton Hall by 14.  Butler is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home matchups with Marquette.  The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 years.  The Golden Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.  Take Butler. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Purdue -5.5 

The Key: Purdue is 15-0 in its last 15 Big Ten home games and 6-0 in its last 6 home games against ranked teams.  The Boilermakers have had this game circled for a few weeks now because they already lost 37-63 at Illinois in their worst performance of the season.  Now they get the Fighting Illini at home where they have been unbeatable.  They just beat Michigan State by 29 in their last home game to flash their potential.  Purdue has won its last 7 home matchups with Illinois by 12.1 PPG.  The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a defeat.  Take Purdue. 

7* Ohio State/Penn State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State +2 

The Key: Big Ten home teams have dominated.  The home teams are 36-6 SU and Penn State is a home underdog to Ohio State when they shouldn’t be today.  The Buckeyes are 0-3 in Big Ten road games while losing by 12.5 PPG.  Ohio State beat Penn State at home earlier this season, so that means the Nittany Lions are out for revenge.  They are also hungry for a win because they are coming off 3 straight losses.  Ohio State shot 54% from 3 in that first meeting with Penn State and that’s not going to happen again.  The Buckeyes are only shooting 29% from 3 in Big Ten road games this year.  The Buckeyes are 1-10 ATS in January games over the last 2 years.  The Nittany Lions are 14-3 ATS off 2 straight games with 12 or fewer assists over the last 3 years.  The Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog.  Take Penn State. 

7* Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Missouri State -2 

The Key: Bradley is without its best player in Elijah Childs.  The Braves have been able to weather the storm without him against a weak schedule by going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I think it’s time to fade them now in this tough situation on the road at Missouri State.  The Bears are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home matchups with Bradley.  The Bears are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Missouri State. 

7* Ohio State/Maryland Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland -2.5 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Maryland Terrapins are only 2.5-point home favorites over the Ohio State Buckeyes.  The Terrapins are 9-0 at home this year and just beat Indiana by 16 and Notre Dame by 21 recently at home.  Ohio State is not playing well. They lost by 8 on a neutral to West Virginia and were upset by Wisconsin as 7.5-point home favorites in their last 2 games.  Maryland won both meetings with Ohio State by 14 on the road and by 10 at home last year.  The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  The Terrapins are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home meetings with Ohio State.  Take Maryland. 

7* Big East Game of the Month on Seton Hall -6.5 

The Key: Suspensions and injuries have really decimated the Georgetown Hoyas.  It showed up in their 16-point loss against Providence last time out as they were without Mac McClung and his 15.5 PPG and could be without him again.  Seton Hall just got Myles Powell back from injury, a National Player of the Year candidate.  The Pirates swiftly beat DePaul 74-66 on the road.  They also recently beat Maryland as 7-point dogs at home without Powell, so they’ve shown they are more than just a one-trick pony.  The Pirates are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.  Take Seton Hall. 

7* Florida/Providence ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -4.5 

The Key: The Florida Gators have won 4 of their last 5 with their only setback coming at Butler.  The Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Providence Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall with a ton of ugly performances.  The Friars already have 5 upset losses this year.  They have played an easy schedule as they have been favored in every single game and have come up way short of expectations.  And this number is too short tonight against the best team they’ve played yet in the Gators.  Take Florida. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Northern Iowa +9 

The Key: The Northern Iowa Panthers are probably the best team in the MVC this year.  They made the MVC title game last year and are off to an 8-1 start this year.  They have covered the spread in 6 of their 7 line games this season.  Their only loss came by 5 points to West Virginia on the road in a game they led almost the entire way.  They will go on the road here and stay within 9 points of Colorado as well.  The Buffaloes are coming off a 14-point loss at Kansas on Saturday and only have 2 days to get ready for the Panthers.  Northern Iowa has had 7 days to get ready for Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Northern Iowa. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Rhode Island -6 

The Key: Rhode Island returned all 5 starters this year and is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rams are 3-1 this year with their only loss coming at No. 6 Maryland.  They beat Alabama 93-79 at home and will handle North Texas.  UNT is 2-3 this year with its only wins against Oklahoma Christian and UNC A&T.  They lost at home to Eastern Michigan outright as 9-point favorites, were blown out by 23 at Arkansas, and also lost at VCU.  UNT is 0-8 ATS against teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last 2 years.  UNT is 6-15 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last 2 years.  UNT is 1-9 ATS off an ATS win over the last 2 years.  Take Rhode Island. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Furman +4.5 

The Key: Furman is a team in line to make a run at an NCAA Tournament bid.  They are neck and neck with East Tennessee State as the top two teams in the Southern Conference.  Furman went 25-8 last year and returns 4 starters from that squad, all who averaged anywhere from 8.8 PPG to 16.2 PPG.  Furman is 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this year with road wins over Gardner Webb as 5-point favorites and Charleston Southern (by 44) as 7-point favorites as well as a blowout home win over Loyola-Chicago (by 24) as 4.5-point favorites.  Those results and margin of victory show that this team in for real.  Alabama is rebuilding under first-year head coach Nate Oats.  The Crimson Tide are 1-2 this season with an upset home loss to Pennsylvania and an upset road loss at Rhode Island by 14.  Wrong team favored here as Furman is probably the best team they will have faced yet.  Furman is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 against a team with a losing record.  Furman is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games.  Take Furman. 

7* Kansas/Duke NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas -2 

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils lost Zion, Barrett and Redish to the NBA.  They won’t be as talented as they were last year, and they certainly won’t be hitting on all cylinders to start the season with so many freshmen.  The Kansas Jayhawks are a more veteran team than they normally are.  They have 3 starters back, a healthy Udoka Azubuike, and got the great news that Silvio De Sousa will be eligible.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Duke.  Take Kansas. 

7* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Texas Tech +1.5 

The Key: This one is as easy as it gets.  Texas Tech has won 4 of its 5 NCAA Tournament games by double-digits against better completion than Virginia has faced.  And the only exception was beating Gonzaga by 6.  Virginia has trailed in the 2nd half in 4 of their 5 games.  It’s been a minor miracle that they are even here.  Texas Tech is simply too good, too deep and too disciplined to let them off the hook tonight.  The Red Raiders have won 14 of their last 15 games overall while going 13-2 ATS in the process.  Take Texas Tech. 

7* Auburn/Virginia *HEAVY HITTER* on Auburn +6 

The Key: I’ve been a lot more impressed with Auburn than Virginia down the stretch.  The Tigers have won 12 straight games, including their three consecutive victories over three blue bloods in Kentucky, UNC and Kansas.  Virginia barely escaped with wins over Purdue and Oregon the last 2 rounds.  And if they win tonight, it won’t be by more than 6 points.  Take Auburn. 

7* Michigan State/Duke Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke -2 

The Key: I think we’re getting Duke at a great price today because they’ve failed to cover the spread in each of their first 3 NCAA Tournament games, and 7 of their last 8 games overall.  They basically just have to win to cover now.  Duke has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with Michigan State.  Take Duke. 

7* Texas Tech/Gonzaga *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -4 

The Key: This feels like the year of the Gonzaga Bulldogs.  They have their most talented team yet and average nearly 90 PPG.  Not even Texas Tech’s vaunted defense will be able to slow them down much.  And the problem for the Red Raiders is that they won’t be able to score with the Zags.  There’s just not much firepower to their offense outside Culver, and they will be exposed by Gonzaga’s balance.  The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 against the Big 12.  Take Gonzaga. 

7* Liberty/VA Tech East Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -8.5 

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies are a dangerous team now that starting PG and floor general Justin Robinson has returning from injury to join this team in the NCAA Tournament.  It showed how much they missed him in the first half against Saint Louis as the Hokies stormed out to a 22-point lead by the break and simply coasted to the finish line.  Liberty needed a big comeback from double-digits down in the 2nd half to beat Mississippi State in their opener.  That will have taken a lot out of them.  I’ll back the fresher, more talented team tonight in what should be a double-digit blowout in the Hokies’ favor.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, and they’re winning by 17 PPG in this spot.  Take Virginia Tech.

7* Villanova/Purdue South Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova +3.5 

The Key: It’s rare that you’ll see a higher seed have home-court advantage over a lower seed.  But that’s the case here when Villanova meets Purdue in Hartford, Connecticut Saturday night in the round of 32.  And the Wildcats have all the momentum, winning the Big East regular season title, and then winning the Big East Tournament.  They have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall coming in.  And they were more dominant in their 61-57 win over St Mary’s than the final score would indicate.  They don’t mind grinding it out, which is exactly what the Big Ten is all about, so they’’ll make up well with the Boilermakers.  Purdue has lost twice to Minnesota in its last 4 games and is vulnerable.  The Wildcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games.  Villanova is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 against Big Ten teams.  Purdue is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 against Big East teams.  Take Villanova. 

7* Colgate/Tennessee NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -17.5 

The Key: No analysis Friday. 

7* Seton Hall/Wofford Midwest Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Wofford -2.5 

The Key: The Wofford Terriers are 29-4 this season and one of the best teams in the country that you haven’t heard about.  They’ll put their names on the map with a win and cover over Seton Hall Thursday.  The Terriers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Wofford. 

7* Dayton/Colorado ESPN 2 *BAILOUT* on Colorado -4 

The Key: The Colorado Buffaloes are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this season.  This is a long travel spot for the Dayton Flyers.  And the Buffaloes have been even better at home down the stretch, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Dayton is 1-8 ATS against good shooting teams that make 45% or better after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Colorado. 

7* Michigan/MSU Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +1 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +2 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Nebraska/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -8 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Arkansas/Florida SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -3 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation from Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* MEAC Game of the Year on NC A&T -5.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Pepperdine/Gonzaga WCC *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -23.5 

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs just don’t have any let up in them.  And they won’t tonight as they’ve been off since March 2nd and will be hungry to hit the court for the WCC semifinals.  The Pepperdine Waves have been a great story, winning 3 games in 3 days, but their run comes to an end tonight in blowout fashion.  They already lost to the Bulldogs by 28 win their first meeting.  And now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 5 days, making this already difficult matchup that much more difficult.  Take Gonzaga. 

7* SMU/South Florida AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on South Florida -2 

The Key: The South Florida Bulls are 14-4 at home this season.  It’s Senior Day and they will win this game against SMU, which just hasn’t played well at all here down the stretch in going 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  The Mustangs are also just 2-7 on the road this season.  Take South Florida. 

7* WCC Tournament Game of the Year on San Francisco -7.5 

The Key: No analysis for Saturday. 

7* Cincinnati/UCF AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on UCF -2 

The Key: The UCF Knights are coming on strong to close the season as they try to punch their tickets into the big dance.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Their only loss? A 55-60 setback at Cincinnati as 7.5-point dogs.  Well, they now get their chance to avenge that defeat tonight at home on Senior Night.  That’s why I’m not concerned about a possible letdown off their huge 69-64 upset win at Houston as 7-point dogs over the weekend.  They’ll get up for Cincinnati tonight.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, loving on the edge with 4 wins by 5 points or less.  Their luck runs out tonight against a UCF team that simply wants it more.  The Knights are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  UCF is 8-0 ATS after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in its last game over the last 2 seasons.  The Knights are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.  Take UCF Thursday. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +10.5 

The Key: The Boston College Eagles have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They have won 3 straight home games, including an upset win over Louisville.  And they haven’t lost any of their last 6 home games by more than 6 points.  Now they’re catching 10.5 points at home against a UNC team that is primed for a letdown.  They will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against Duke this weekend.  Boston College is 7-0 ATS off a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Boston College. 

7* Northwestern/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois -5 

The Key: Brad Underwood has done a tremendous job of keeping his team focused and playing hard here down the stretch trying to improve as a young squad.  The Fighting Illini had a lot of breaks not go their way in the first half of the season, but they’ve stuck with it and have now gone 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS in their last nine games overall in Big Ten play.  That includes wins over NCAA Tournament teams in Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State with two of those three on the road even.  Now they want to avenge their 66-68 loss at Northwestern in their first meeting this season.  They should be able to against a Wildcats team that is just ready for the season to be over.  They are 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a 12-point home loss to Minnesota on Thursday.  The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS off 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.  Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a double-digit home loss.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Illinois. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama +2 

The Key: Alabama is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament at 17-11 on the season.  They picked up a big road win at South Carolina last time out, and now they could really use an upset victory over No. 13 LSU to really cement their place in the big dance.  That’s why I know we’re going to get a big effort from the Crimson Tide at home Saturday.  And they have been great at home this year, going 10-3 SU in their 13 home games.  Alabama is also 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with LSU.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent over the last 3 seasons.  The Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with LSU.  Take Alabama. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Oregon State -4 

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers have an outside shot to make the tournament at 17-9 on the season and 9-5 in Pac-12 play.  The Arizona Wildcats are playing for nothing but pride.  Arizona has gone just 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall with its two wins both coming at home against lowly Cal and Stanford.  Oregon State is 10-3 at home this season.  The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Beavers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Arizona is 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  Take Oregon State. 

7* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -5 

The Key: Villanova has won 10 straight home games all by 5 points or more.  The Wildcats have won 6 straight home games against Marquette with 5 of those by 10 points or more.  I think the Wildcats get their revenge from a 1-point road loss at Marquette earlier this season.  Take Villanova. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on Texas A&M +12 

The Key: LSU is coming off a massive 82-80 upset victory over Tennessee on Saturday.  It’s now a letdown spot for them, and they could be without starting PG Tremont Waters again.  Texas A&M has been far from an easy out.  The Aggies are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  They only lost by 4 at Ole Miss and by 7 at South Carolina.  They upset Missouri on the road, Arkansas on the road, Alabama at home and also beat Georgia by 17 at home.  They are playing well enough to stay within this 12-point spread, especially given the letdown spot for the Tigers.  They Aggies also want to avenge a 15-point home loss to LSU back when they weren’t playing well on January 30th.  LSU is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons.  Texas A&M is 8-2 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this season.  The Aggies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.  Take Texas A&M. 

7* Stanford/Arizona Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Arizona -5 

The Key: The price is right to back the Arizona Wildcats tonight after losing 7 of their last 8 both straight up and against the spread.  Now they’re laying a short number at home against a Stanford team they already beat 75-70 on the road.  They should be able to win by more than 5 at home in the rematch.  Stanford’s last two road games have been very ugly as they lost by 18 at Arizona State and by 23 at Oregon.  The Cardinal are 2-10 ATS in road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last 3 seasons.  The Wildcats are 18-0 SU in their last 18 meetings with Stanford.  Take Arizona. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Purdue -6 

The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been broken since losing their most important player in Isaac Copeland to injury.  They already had no bench, so it puts even more pressure on the starters.  The Huskers are just 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only wins came at home against Minnesota by 1 and Northwestern by 9.  They were just blown out by 24 at Penn State, which 5 of their last 6 losses have now come by double-digits.  Purdue is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall and should blow Nebraska out of the building tonight.  They already beat Nebraska by 19 at home this season, so asking them to cover this short number on the road isn’t asking too much.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home gams.  The Huskers are 1-10-1 ATS in this last 12 games following a loss.  Take Purdue. 

7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCF +8 

The Key: Cincinnati’s 21-4 record has it laying way too many points too often.  That’s why the Bearcats are just 4-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  And they are laying too many points to UCF tonight.  This is a UCF team on the bubble and looking for another signature win tonight.  The Knights are playing well having gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take UCF.