Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -2 

The Key: The Syracuse Orange are coming off a bad loss at NC State.  They’ve had a full week to correct their mistakes having last played on February 13th.  They’ll be fresh and ready to go tonight as they host the Louisville Cardinals, who last played on February 16th in a narrow 1-point home win over Clemson.  The Orange are 12-4 at home this season and holding foes to just 59.4 PPG and 38.4% shooting.  Syracuse is 11-2 ATS off a loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss.  The Orange are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Syracuse. 

7* Kentucky/Missouri ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Missouri +12 

The Key: The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off their biggest win of the season over No. 1 Tennessee over the weekend.  Now that sets them up for a big letdown spot tonight at Missouri.  The Tigers have gone a respectable 9-5 at home this season.  They have only lost once in 14 home games by more than 10 points.  The Wildcats played LSU before Tennessee and now have Auburn on deck, so this is clearly a sandwich game for them.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Missouri. 

7* Gonzaga/San Diego WCC *BAILOUT* on San Diego +16.5 

The Key: The San Diego Toreros only lost by 16 at Gonzaga as 23-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are getting 16.5 points here at home in their 2nd meeting.  I believe it’s too much.  San Diego has played Gonzaga as tough as anyone in the conference here of late.  The Toreros only lost by 5 as 11.5-point home dogs last year and by 10 as 19.5-point road dogs.  So they have a track record of playing the Zags tough.  Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS after a game where it forced 8 or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take San Diego. 

7* Ivy League Game of the Year on Princeton -1.5 

The Key: Princeton has been on the road all month.  The Tigers have played their last 4 games on the road, losing their last two.  They come into this game hungry for a victory as they will be playing just their 7th home game of the season, which makes their 12-7 record that much more impressive.  Now they host a rival in Harvard that they have owned at home.  Princeton has won 18 of its last 21 home meetings with Harvard.  Harvard is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games as a road dog of 3 points or less or PK.  The Crimson are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Harvard has played 5 straight home games and will now be on the road for the first time since January 21st.  Take Princeton. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Wake Forest +18 

The Key: Florida State is in a big letdown spot tonight after their overtime victory over Louisville over the weekend.  The Seminoles are laying too many points because they are a hot team right now have won 5 straight and covered 4 of those.  Wake Forest is good enough to stay within 18 points today.  And the Demon Deacons have a big hidden edge here as they have had a full week off since their last game on February 5th.  They will be hungry to hit the floor against the Seminoles tonight.  FSU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.  Take Wake Forest. 

7* Virginia/UNC ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina +1 

The Key: Virginia lost at Duke and needed OT to beat NC State in its two toughest road games thus far this season.  And the Cavaliers will now face another stiff road test here at UNC.  The Tar Heels are 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  And I think they aren’t getting the respect they deserve as home dogs here to Virginia.  It’s partly because they needed OT to beat Miami last game, but they were clearly looking ahead to this game against Virginia.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last 3 seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5.  The Cavaliers couldn’t keep up with Duke’s firepower on Saturday, and now they have to deal with a potent UNC offense that averages 91.6 PPG at home this season.  The Tar Heels are 9-0 ATS in home games against a team that wins more than 80% of its games on the season over the last 3 years.  Take North Carolina. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Purdue -12 

The Key: The Purdue Boilermakers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They should make easy work of Nebraska, which is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Huskers lost their second-best player in Isaac Copeland Jr. and their best big man to a season-ending knee injury and haven’t recovered.  Take Purdue. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Ole Miss -9 

The Key: The Ole Miss Rebels are hungry for a victory to save their season.  They have lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 to likely 5 tournament teams in LSU, Alabama, Iowa State, Florida and Mississippi State.  Now they sit at 14-7 and in jeopardy of missing the big dance themselves.  But they have a get right game here against Texas A&M, which is arguably the worst team in the SEC.  The Aggies are 1-7 in SEC play this season and getting outscoring by 11.9 PPG.  Ole Miss is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this year and winning by 11.3 PPG.  The Rebels are 9-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  The Rebels are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Aggies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* UNC/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville +2 

The Key: Louisville is playing as well as anyone in the country.  The Cardinals are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall with their only non-cover coming in a 10-point win over Boston College as 11-point favorites.  All 6 wins have come by 7 points or more and 5 of them by double-digits.  That includes their 21-point win at UNC as 11-point dogs.  And now they are dogs again here against UNC.  Louisville is 12-1 at home this season with its only loss to Kentucky.  Take Louisville. 

7* WVU/Iowa State Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on West Virginia +13 

The Key: With the temperatures in the Midwest tonight, the Iowa State Cyclones won’t have their normal home-court advantage.  Fans will be staying home instead of going to this game tonight.  And I think the Cyclones are primed for a letdown following their road win at ranked Ole Miss over the weekend.  The WVU Mountaineers beat Kansas recently and hung tough on the road at No. 1 Tennessee before falling apart late.  And they should be able to hang with the Cyclones for 40 minutes in this one.  Bets on dogs of 10 or more points who score 74-78 PPG against a team that gives up 63-67 PPG after 15-plus games, off a loss by 15 points or more are 39-15 ATS since 1997.  Take West Virginia. 

7* Tennessee/South Carolina SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on South Carolina +9 

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks have been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC over the past few seasons.  The Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 SEC games.  That includes upset wins over Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Auburn already this season in SEC play.  And now they are getting 9 points at home to Tennessee.  The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Vols, not once losing by more than 7 points in those 5 games.  Take South Carolina. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Utah -5.5 

The Key: Fading the Cal Bears is the gift that keeps on giving.  They are far and away the worst team in the Pac-12.  The Bears are 5-14 SU on the season and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have lost 8 straight coming in with all 8 losses coming by 9 points or more.  That includes home losses to Seattle by 9, ASU by 14, Arizona by 22 and Colorado by 9.  They also lost on the road to USC by 9, UCLA by 15, Washington State by 23 and Washington by 19.  Utah has won 3 straight coming in with a win by 18 at home of Washington State, by 9 at home over Colorado and by 4 at Stanford.  They should easily cover this 5.5-point spread today.  The Utes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Pac-12 games.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Take Utah. 

7* NCAAB Situational Game of the Month on Clemson +6.5 

The Key: It’s rare that you’ll see one team with such a big rest advantage over another team in the middle of conference play.  But that’s the case here with Clemson having a big edge in rest coming in over Florida State.  Clemson last played on January 16th and has had five full days off to get ready for the Seminoles.  Florida State just played on Sunday, January 20th, so they only have one day to get ready for Clemson.  And the Seminoles are not playing well, going 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games.  The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% or more of their attempts this season.  The Seminoles are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 ACC games.  Take Clemson. 

7* WCC Game of the Month on Santa Clara +16.5 

The Key: Santa Clara has gone 7-2 in its last 9 games overall while going 8-1 ATS in the process.  They have upset the likes of USC, Washington State and San Diego, and their only losses were on the road to Gonzaga and BYU.  This St. Mary’s team is in rebuilding mode and not as strong as most season with just an 11-7 record on the season.  The Gaels are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games when coming off a road win by at least 10 points.  The Broncos are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Take Santa Clara. 

7* AAC Game of the Week on East Carolina +8.5 

The Key: ECU is playing too well to be catching 8.5 points at home to Temple tonight.  The Pirates are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They upset Cincinnati outright as 17.5-point home dogs, and if they can beat Cincinnati, they can certainly beat Temple.  They also only lost by 6 as 15.5-point dogs at Memphis and by 11 as 16.5-point dogs at UCF.  They have covered against 3 of the best teams in the conference.  Temple is feeling a little too good about itself following a 73-69 home win over Houston, handing the Cougars their first loss of the season.  They promptly laid an egg and needed OT to beat South Florida at home as 9-point favorites.  And they will have to fight tooth and nail to win this game against ECU, let alone cover an 8.5-point spread.  The Pirates are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this year.  The Pirates are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games overall.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take East Carolina. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Florida +5 

The Key: I think Mississippi State is a fraud this season.  Florida is the better team in the Kenpom rankings, and I agree with it.  A lot of it has to do with Florida playing a much tougher schedule as they’ve played the 19th-most difficult while Mississippi State is 68th.  The Gators are 8-0 SU in their last 8 meetings with the Bulldogs and should not be 5-point underdogs in this matchup, let alone dogs at all.  Take Florida. 

7* VA Tech/Penn State ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -4 

The Key: Virginia Tech has been mighty impressive during its 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS start this season.  The Hokies have beaten Purdue along the way and should be able to handle another Big Ten opponent tonight in Penn State.  The Nittany Lions have already lost two games.  They were upset by DePaul on the road and also upset by Bradley on a neutral court.  Their 3 wins have come against North Florida, Jacksonville State and Wright State.  So Virginia Tech is by far the best opponent that the Nittany Lions will have faced.  The Hokies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 November games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten teams.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Arizona/Gonzaga ESPN *BAILOUT* on Arizona +10 

The Key: The Arizona Wildcats were impressive in their 71-66 win over Iowa State yesterday.  They are now 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS as head coach Sean Miller has done a great job of reloading with talent via transfers this season.  They should be able to hang with Gonzaga, which barely beat Illinois 84-78 yesterday as 15.5-point favorites.  I like the fact that Arizona played before Gonzaga yesterday, so they will  be the more rested team, and they will have had the opportunity to watch the Zags.  They should be able to stay within 10 points of the Bulldogs tonight.  Arizona is 11-1 ATS in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 ATS over the last 3 seasons.  Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS off 4 straight games where it made 47% of its shots or better over the last 2 years.  The Wildcats are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. teams who make 52% of their shots or better.  Take Arizona. 

7* Arkansas/Texas ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas -6 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns return 4 starters this season and should be one of the top teams in the loaded Big 12.  The Arkansas Razorbacks lost 6 of their top 7 scorers from a year ago and are in rebuilding mode under Mike Anderson.  I think it’s worth laying the 6 points with Texas here given that these programs are going in opposite directions heading into the season.  Take Texas. 

7* Michigan/Villanova NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova -7 

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats have won every one of their NCAA Tournament games by 12 or more points.  They have won by an average of nearly 18 points per game.  Michigan is a good team, but no match for these Wildcats.  The Wolverines lucked their way into the Championship Game by getting a huge break in the schedule, not once having to face a team seeded lower than 6th.  Villanova is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 against Big Ten teams.  Take Villanova. 

7* Duke/Kansas Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas +3.5 

The Key: Kansas should not be an underdog to Duke in the Elite 8.  The Jayhawks have the home-court edge with this game being played in Omaha.  And they are playing their best basketball of the season.  The Jayhawks are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  Azubuike is healthy and a double-double machine.  And the Jayhawks are hitting on all cylinders offensively.  The Blue Devils have had too easy of a path to get here with wins over Iona, Rhode Island and Syracuse.  Kansas is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Duke.  Take Kansas. 

7* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Michigan -4.5 

The Key: The Michigan Wolverines are on fire.  They are 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.  I think the fact that Florida State has upset two straight teams in Xavier and Gonzaga has them getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  Both Xavier and Gonzaga came into the tournament overrated in my opinion.  Michigan remains severely underrated.  The Wolverines should be more than 4.5-point favorites against this inexperienced FSU team that isn’t ready for this big of a stage with a trip to the Final Four on the line.  Michigan’s suffocating defense will be the difference, and they are obviously feeling it offensively right now after hanging 99 points on Texas A&M on Thursday.  Take Michigan. 

7* WVU/Villanova Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova -5 

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats are the best team in the country.  They don’t have any weaknesses.  They will exploit the one weakness of West Virginia, which is their half court defense.  The Wildcats won’t be phased by WVU’s press, especially with extra time to prepare for it.  And they will take advantage of their opportunities when the Mountaineers are out of position going for too many steals.  This is a Villanova team that doesn’t get enough credit for their offensive efficiency.  They score 86.9 PPG and shoot 50.3% from the field, including 40.2% from 3-point range this season.  On the other end, Villanova is elite defensively, and WVU struggles shooting the 3-ball.  The Wildcats don’t give up anything easy.  Villanova is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 50-21-1 ATS in their last 72 non-conference games.  Take Villanova. 

7* Loyola/Nevada Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Loyola-Chicago +1.5 

The Key: Loyola is the more complete team in this matchup.  They are by far the superior defensive team.  I love the way they share the basketball on offense and have 3-point snipers all over the court.  This has allowed them to upset both Miami and Tennessee to get here.  And now they actually take a step down in class against Nevada, yet are still underdogs.  Their magical run will continue with a win tonight.  Loyola is 9-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games this season.  Take Loyola-Chicago. 

7* Western Kentucky/USC NIT *BAILOUT* on Western Kentucky +5 

The Key: USC is still bummed from being left out of the NCAA Tournament.  That was evident in their NIT opener when they went through the motions and were fortunate to escape with a 103-98 home win over UNC-Asheville despite being 13.5-point favorites.  Of course it doesn’t help that they are without their two best players in Bennie Boatwright (injury) and Cimenzie Metu, who has decided to skip the NIT to focus on the NBA Draft.  Western Kentucky will likely pull the upset tonight.  The Hilltoppers blitzed Boston College 79-62 at home in their NIT opener and are clearly happy to be here.  The Hilltoppers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Western Kentucky is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 60%.  Take Western Kentucky. 

7* Texas A&M/North Carolina *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -6 

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have the big men to match Texas A&M.  The Tar Heels are one of the best rebounding teams in the country.  So the difference in this game is going to be the guard play.  The Tar Heels have elite guards, while the Aggies have some of the worst guards in the tournament.  They lost starting point guard Duane Wilson in mid-February and haven’t been the same team since.  Roy Williams has never lost in the NCAA Tournament in their home state, and they’ll certainly have a big home-court edge again with this game being played in Charlotte.  Texas A&M is 2-10 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game over the last 3 seasons.  The Aggies are 1-9 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Tar Heels are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. SEC teams.  Take North Carolina. 

7* Houston/Michigan *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan -3 

The Key: The Michigan Wolverines need to be bigger favorites today against the Houston Cougars.  The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the country.  They are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Houston was fortunate to get by San Diego State on a buzzer-beater by a final of 67-65.  Now they take a step up in class against arguably the best team they have faced all season.  Michigan is 9-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Take Michigan. 

7* NCAAB First Round Game of the Year on Virginia -20 

The Key: Virginia was the best team in college basketball all season.  Now they will roll over Maryland-Baltimore County tonight as only 20-point favorites in their NCAA Tournament opener.  The No. 1 seeds thus far are 2-0 ATS with both Kansas and Villanova covering.  And the last 8 No. 1 seeds favored by 20 or less have now gone 8-0 ATS.  Take Virginia. 

7* SDSU/Houston *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +4 

The Key: San Diego State is a team that nobody wants to face right now.  The Aztecs have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  They beat Nevada twice by 5 at home and by 17 on a neutral.  They really cruised through the Mountain West Tournament and are hitting their stride.  Houston had a solid season, but I question how good the American Athletic really is.  I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Aztecs are 8-0 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week this season.  SDSU is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC teams.  Take San Diego State. 

7* Texas Tech/WVU Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on West Virginia -2 

The Key: West Virginia’s style is built for tournament basketball.  It’s tough to prepare for them on short rest, especially when playing on back-to-back days.  That’s the task Texas Tech faces here.  WVU was clearly the better team in the regular season with the Mountaineers only losing 71-72 on the road and winning 84-74 at home in their 2 meetings with the Red Raiders.  WVU made easy work of Baylor in a 78-65 win yesterday, while Texas Tech struggled to put away a depleted Texas team 73-69.  The Red Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after 4 straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers.  Texas Tech is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 neutral site games, and 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  The Mountaineers are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take West Virginia. 

7* Atlantic 10 Tournament Game of the Year on George Mason PK 

The Key: George Mason is playing the better basketball than UMass right now and is primed for a run in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.  George Mason has gone 5-2 SU in its last 7 games overall, and 7-2 ATS in its last 9 lined games.  UMass is just 3-11 SU in its last 14 games.  George Mason won both regular season meetings both home and away and has won 4 straight in this series overall.  UMass is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a neutral court dog of 3 points or less or PK.  Take George Mason. 

7* Big East Game of the Month on Marquette -5.5 

The Key: At 18-12 on the season, Marquette has played its way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have done so by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, which has included two wins over Creighton, an NCAA Tournament team.  Now they should make easy work of DePaul like they did back on January 15th at home in a 70-52 victory, and not like they lost to them on the road on February 24th.  They are now healthy with Markus Howard in the lineup and should roll here.  DePaul is 1-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog or PK over the last 3 seasons.  The Blue Demons are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games overall.  The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Marquette. 

7* WCC Tournament Game of the Year on Gonzaga -19 

The Key: Gonzaga is currently on an 11-game winning streak.  The Bulldogs take on Loyola-Marymount tonight in their WCC Tournament opener.  It’s a team they have dominated of late by going 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups while winning by 28.3 PPG on average.  They have won 44 of their last 47 meetings with this team.  It will be yet another mismatch here tonight.  Take Gonzaga. 

7* Oregon State/Washington Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Washington -3 

The Key: The Washington Huskies are in need of a couple victories to close out the season if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  They are a bubble team right now but wins over Oregon State and Oregon at home to close out the season would help their chances.  That would get them to 21-10 and 11-7 in league play, and the committee would almost certainly have to put them in.  It starts with this home game against the Beavers.  I think Oregon State is in a letdown spot after facing a brutal schedule of UCLA, USC, Arizona and Arizona State in their last 4 games.  I also think Washington wants revenge from a 94-97 road loss at Oregon State in their first meeting.  Washington has won 15 of its last 19 home meetings with Oregon State.  The Huskies are 14-3 at home this year.  Oregon State is 0-7 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.  The Beavers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Oregon State, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings.  Take Washington. 

7* Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on La Salle -2.5 

The Key: La Salle is 9-4 at home this season while Dayton is just 2-11 in all road games.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Explorers at home tonight.  They have won two of their last three with their only loss coming 93-95 (OT) against Rhode Island, the best team in the Atlantic 10.  Dayton is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Flyers are 1-8 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Dayton is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take La Salle. 

7* Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Baylor -3.5 

The Key: The Baylor Bears are one of the last four in teams on Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.  They are a bubble team and must win this game against Oklahoma to get in.  They also lost in overtime at Oklahoma which will have them in revenge mode.  Considering Oklahoma is 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in its last 8 road games, I like the Bears’ chances of getting a win and cover at home on Senior Night.  Take Baylor. 

7* Texas Tech/West Virginia Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on West Virginia -6.5 

The Key: I expect West Virginia to get a big win and cover here on Senior Night against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The Mountaineers will be hungry to avenge a 71-72 loss at Texas Tech in their first meeting this season.  I think this is a flat spot for the Red Raiders, who had their Big 12 title hopes crushed with a 72-74 home loss to Kansas over the weekend.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat two days later, and I don’t see it happening for them.  The Mountaineers are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Texas Tech with each of the last four wins coming by 6 points or more.  The Red Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss.  The Mountaineers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Take West Virginia. 

7* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa -3 

The Key: Northwestern and Iowa have been two of the most disappointing teams not only in the Big Ten, but also in the country.  But I look at Iowa and they keep fighting with a 2-point loss to Indiana and a 4-point loss to Minnesota.  And there’s no doubt the Hawkeyes will be hungry for a win on Senior Day tonight to end their season on a winning note.  I do question Northwestern’s motivation as they are just 15-15 this year despite returning almost everyone from their NCAA Tournament team last year.  They are clearly just looking ahead to the Big Ten Tournament.  The Wildcats are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  They have lost three straight at home coming in, and their lost by 9 at Rutgers and by 16 at Maryland in their last two road games.  They are now just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in true road games this year.  The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 visits to Iowa City.  Take Iowa. 

7* Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Drake -5 

The Key: The Drake Bulldogs have 4 of 5 senior starters.  That makes today even more special for them than most teams on Senior Day.  Expect them to lay it all on the line to get a win against Valparaiso this afternoon.  The Bulldogs are 10-2 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this year.  The Crusaders are 2-12 in true road games.  The Crusaders are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Bulldogs are 15-5-1 ATS in they last 21 home games.  Drake is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 Saturday games.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  Take Drake. 

7* Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford -5 

The Key: Stanford already won 73-64 at Washington back on January 13th.  With the way they are playing at home of late, they should have no problem beating the Huskies by 5-plus points at home in the rematch.  The Cardinal are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games with their only loss coming to Arizona by a final of 71-73 as 6-point underdogs.  They beat Oregon by 35, Oregon State by 9, Arizona State by 9, USC by 1 and UCLA by 8.  Stanford is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Stanford. 

7* NCAAB *BLOWOUT* Game of the Month on George Washington -3.5 

The Key: The George Washington Colonials have won 3 of their last 4 in impressive fashion.   They beat La Salle by 11 and VCU by 24 at home, while also winning on the road at UMass by 11.  I like the price we are getting with the Colonials at home today against Richmond, which has lost three straight coming in to fall to 9-17 on the season.  The Colonials will be hungry to avenge a 68-78 road loss at Richmond back on January 13th.  Take George Washington. 

7* Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Valparaiso -2.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting with Valparaiso as only a 2.5-point home favorite over Northern Iowa.  Valpo will be looking to avenge a 76-81 road loss at Northern Iowa back on January 13th.  They should get their revenge at home considering they are 10-3 at home this year and winning by 12.3 points per game on average.  The Panthers are just 2-11 SU & 2-10 ATS in all road games.  Northern Iowa is 0-8 ATS in true road games this season.  The Panthers are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 road games dating ack further.  Take Valparaiso. 

7* Miami/Notre Dame ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +4.5 

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes will be hungry for a win tonight after their 18-5 start has turned into 18-8 following three consecutive losses.  Now they’re up against a Notre Dame team they have had success against in going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings.  They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Notre Dame.  The Hurricanes are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.  Miami is 98-56 ATS in its last 154 games as a road underdog or PK, including 52-28 ATS in its last 80 games as a road dog of 6 points or less or PK.  Take Miami. 

7* Wichita State/Cincinnati AAC Game of the Month on Wichita State +7 

The Key: It’s rare that you get the opportunity to back Wichita State as an underdog, let alone a 7-point dog.  We’ll take advantage today and back the Shockers in a game that will clearly have them more motivated than Cincinnati.  The Shockers must win this game if they want any chance of winning the American Athletic, while the Bearcats can afford a loss because they have a two-game lead.  The Shockers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 Sunday games.  The Bearcats are 19-39 ATS in their last 58 Sunday games. Take Wichita State. 

7* Oregon/UCLA Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on UCLA -3.5 

The Key: The UCLA Bruins will be looking to avenge a 91-94 road loss at Oregon on January 20th in their first matchup this season.  With the way they are playing of late, they should have no problem winning and covering as only 3.5-point home favorites in this rematch.  The Bruins are 5-1 in there last 6 games overall with their only loss coming at Arizona State.  They went on the road and even beat Arizona during this stretch.  The Bruins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 60%.  Take UCLA. 

7* Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Bonaventure +2.5 

The Key: The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are the only team capable of beating Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10.  And now that the Rams have likely lost one of their best players on EC Matthews to an injury, they are ripe for the picking tonight.  The Bonnies are 10-1 at home this year.  They are 7-0 in their last 7 games overall.  The home team has won 5 straight meetings in this series.  The Bonnies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Rams.  Take St. Bonaventure. 

7* Purdue/Wisconsin ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Purdue -10 

The Key: The Purdue Boilermakers have lost two straight for the first time all season.  They basically lost both on buzzer-beaters with a 63-64 loss to Ohio State and a 65-68 loss to Michigan State.  They will be in a sour mood tonight when they take on the Wisconsin Badgers.  Look for them to take out their frustration on a Wisconsin team that is 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Both wins came against Illinois, arguably the worst team in the Big Ten.  Five of their last seven losses have come by double-digits, including an 11-point home loss to Michigan last time out.  Purdue beat Wisconsin 78-50 at home in their first meeting this year.  Wisconsin is 1-9 ATS versus teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take Purdue. 

7* Nevada/Boise State Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Boise State -2.5 

The Key: Boise State is ready to avenge a tough 68-74 road loss at Nevada on January 20th in their first meeting this season.  This game is now for first place in the Mountain West, and I trust the Broncos to get the job done at home.  After all, Boise State is 13-0 at home this season and crushing opponents by 19 PPG.  Nevada is 1-8 ATS off a conference win this season.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Boise State. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Iowa State +7 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones have had one of the better home-court advantages in the country over the last decade-plus.  That has really proven true of late as the Cyclones are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Big 12 home games despite being underdogs in all four.  They beat Baylor 75-65 as 3-point dogs, Texas Tech 70-52 as 7.5-point dogs, West Virginia 93-77 as 8.5-point dogs and Oklahoma 88-80 as 6-point dogs.  They have won these games all in blowout fashion too.  Kansas is down this season and is coming off a 64-80 road loss at Baylor.  The Jayhawks only beat the Cyclones 83-78 at home in their first meeting this season and are now being asked to lay 7 points on the road in the rematch.  Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games off an upset win as a home underdog.  Kansas is 2-11 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on VCU -3 

The Key: VCU comes in hungry for a win tonight off two straight losses to Rhode Island and Richmond.  The Rams are 10-4 at home this season and will be out for revenge from a loss at Dayton in their first meeting this year.  Dayton is jus 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  The Flyers are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in all road games this year.  Dayton is 0-8 ATS off a home win this season. The Flyers are 1-9 ATS off a win this year.  The Rams are 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last 2 seasons.  Take VCU. 

7* USC/Arizona State ESPN 2 *BAILOUT* on Arizona State -3.5 

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are 10-2 at home this season and winning by 17.5 points per game on average.  I think we are getting them at a short price here as only 3.5-point home favorites over the USC Trojans.  The Trojans haven’t done well when they’ve taken a step up in class on the road this year.  They have lost on the road to Stanford, SMU and UCLA.  Their four road wins have come against Vanderbilt, Cal, Oregon and Oregon State.  This will be their toughest road test of the season tonight.  USC is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when a total set of 160 or higher.  Arizona State is 8-0 ATS after scoring 85 points or more this season.  The Suns Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Trojans are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Arizona State. 

7* Texas A&M/Auburn ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M +7 

The Key: When Texas A&M has been fully healthy this season, they have nearly gone undefeated.  Well they are healthy again now and it’s starting to show.  They are coming off two straight blowout victories over Arkansas (80-66) and South Carolina (83-60), and now they are ready to take down the Auburn Tigers, who are in first place in the SEC.  This is the type of win the Aggies need to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Auburn.  Take Texas A&M. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming -1.5 

The Key: Wyoming has had a tremendous home-court advantage throughout the years.  The Cowboys are 9-2 at home this season, which includes a win over the best team in the MWC in Nevada.  So they can certainly handle Fresno State, which just lost to Nevada by 10 last time out and could suffer a hangover effect from that defeat.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS off a loss this season.  The Cowboys are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Wyoming is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Wyoming. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Arizona -11.5 

The Key: We have the best team in the Pac-12 here in Arizona at 8-1 in conference play against one of the worst teams in the Washington State Cougars at 1-7 in Pac-12 action.  This is a mismatch and it will show up on the scoreboard tonight.  And Arizona has owned Washington State, going a perfect 12-0 SU in the last 12 meetings.  Amazingly, Arizona has won 8 straight meetings with Washington State by 14 points or more.  That’s an 8-0 angle backing the Wildcats when you consider this spread is only 11.5.  The Wildcats are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Washington State.  Take Arizona. 

7* Auburn/Ole Miss SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss +4.5 

The Key: In their first meeting back on January 9th, Ole Miss led Auburn 45-35 at halftime.  The Rebels led with 10 minutes left but then went cold, eventually losing 70-85 as 12-point underdogs.  Now the Rebels will want revenge at home this time around after blowing that double-digit lead in the first meeting.  And Ole Miss grabbed that lead despite playing without their best player in DeAndre Burnett, who sat out with an illness.  Burnett is one of the best players in the country as he averages 15.2 points and 4.5 assists per game.  He is irreplaceable on this team.  Now the Rebels are healthy for the rematch.  Ole Miss is 10-3 at home this season.  The Rebels are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, beating the likes of South Carolina, Mississippi State, Florida and Alabama.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Northwestern/Michigan Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +7.5 

The Key: After a slow start to the season the Northwestern Wildcats have turned it on of late.  They have won two straight 70-61 at home over Penn State and 77-69 at Minnesota.  Now they’ve had nearly a week off having last played on Tuesday.  They will be rested and ready to go tonight against the Michigan Wolverines.  I think the Wolverines are in a hangover spot from their 88-92 loss at 3rd-ranked Purdue last time out.  Northwestern is 15-6 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Big East Game of the Month on Seton Hall -5 

The Key: The Seton Hall Pirates come in hungry for a victory after losing two straight and 3 of their last 4 overall.  And they’ve had over a week off having last played on January 20th, so they have been steaming for over a week about it.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the lowly DePaul Blue Demons.  DePaul is just 9-11 overall and 2-6 in Big East play.  Seton Hall has won 4 straight meetings with DePaul.  The Pirates are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS loss.  The Blue Demons are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a win.  DePaul is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games.  The Blue Demons are 0-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.  The Pirates are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games off a home loss.  Take Seton Hall. 

7* WCC Game of the Year on Pacific +12 

The Key: Pacific is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  Yet, the Tigers still lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 12-point underdogs to BYU.  They already beat BYU 67-66 at home as 6.5-point underdogs on January 6th in their first meeting.  I think the Cougars are in a hangover spot here following their 62-75 loss at St. Mary’s on Thursday.  The Tigers are 9-0 ATS off a conference games this season.  Take Pacific. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +11.5 

The Key: Vanderbilt will be looking to avenge an 84-92 home loss to Tennessee on January 9th earlier this month.  That was exactly two weeks ago today.  There’s no question the Commodores will want this game more against their in-state rivals now, and they are catching 11.5 points in the rematch.  The road team has dominated this series.  The road team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Tennessee.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Commodores are 7-0 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss over the last 3 seasons.  Take Vanderbilt. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Ole Miss +8 

The Key: Arkansas cannot be this heavily favored with the way they are playing right now.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.  They have been exposed in SEC play.  Ole Miss has shown they can compete with anyone.  The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.  They have played well whenever DeAndre Burnett has been in the lineup, and he missed one of those non-covers against Auburn.  Ole Miss is 11-0 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last 2 seasons.  Take Ole Miss.

7* St. Bonaventure/Davidson ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Davidson -4.5 

The Key: St. Bonaventure is 0-3 in its last 3 true road games, losing by 10 at Dayton, by 7 at St. Joe’s and by 14 at Rhode Island.  Now the Bonnies have to face a hot Davidson team that has won 4 straight, including the last three by 27, 27 and 30 points with two of those three games on the road.  Davidson is 5-0 at home this season and winning by 25.6 points per game.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  The Bonnies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take Davidson. 

7* Purdue/Michigan Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Purdue -1.5 

The Key: Purdue is 15-2 and clearly one of the top teams in the country.  I think we are getting them at a cheap price here tonight as they go for their 12th straight victory.  Michigan has played a very soft schedule recently and will take a step up in class here.  Purdue is 9-1 ATS against teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last 2 seasons.  The Boilermakers are 36-17-3 ATS in their last 56 games overall.  Purdue is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Purdue. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Arizona -3 

The Key: The Arizona Wildcats are on a roll right now.  They are 8-0 in their last 8 games overall with wins over the likes of UNLV, Texas A&M, Alabama, UConn and Arizona State.  They are ready for the Pac-12 schedule now that they are fully healthy, which has been the biggest reason for their resurgence.  They play a Utah team that already has a trio of blowout losses to UNLV, Butler and BYU.  And the Wildcats own the Utes, going 13-2 SU in the last 15 meetings and 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Wildcats have gone 10-2 ATS in conference road games over the past two seasons.  Take Arizona. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee -5 

The Key: Rick Barnes has really turned around this Texas program already.  They are 9-3 this season with a 9-point loss to top-ranked Villanova, a 5-point loss to UNC, and a 2-point loss at Arkansas.  Give Auburn credit for a 12-1 record, but their schedule has been much easier than that of Tennessee.  They have only played 2 true road games this season at Dayton and at Murray State.  So this will be their toughest challenge of the season at Tennessee.  The Vols are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Auburn winning by 10, 38 and 26 points.  Tennessee is 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Auburn as well.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Wednesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -2.5 

The Key: The Houston Cougars have a very good team and they are flying under the radar this season.  They are 8-1 under Kelvin Sampson, the former Oklahoma coach who is doing good things down in Houston.  They are 8-1 and have beaten the likes of Wake Forest and Arkansas (by 26).  LSU is one of the worst teams in the SEC this season, and that showed when they stepped up in class with a 39-point loss to Notre Dame and a 10-point loss to Marquette during their 5-2 start.  Houston is 8-0 ATS off 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.  LSU is 0-8 ATS off 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 years.  The Tigers are 8-23 ATS off a win over the last 3 years. 

7* NCAAB Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +7.5 

The Key: The Butler Bulldogs are getting too much credit from the books tonight as 7.5-point home favorites over the Utah Utes.  The Bulldogs have two double-digit losses already to Maryland 65-79 and Texas 48-61.  The price is right to back Utah, which is 6-1 highlighted by 77-59 and 83-74 wins over Missouri and Ole Miss, respectively.  Utah is 44-25 ATS in its last 69 games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Utes are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. at team with a winning record.  The Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win.  Take Utah. 

7* ACC/Big Ten Challenge *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern -2

The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history last year.  They brought back 4 starters from that team.  It's understandable that they would suffer a bit of a hangover after that experience as they have not gotten off to the best start this season.  But I think that had them undervalued now.  Georgia Tech is not a very good team and is missing its best player in Josh Okogie, who serves the final game of his 5-game suspension tonight.  GA Tech is 3-1, but narrow wins over Bethune-Cookman (65-62) and UTRGV (78-68) at home show that this team is very vulnerable.  The Wildcats are 11-2 ATS in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.  The Wildcats are 17-4 ATS in road games after a home game over the last 3 years.  Take Northwestern.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State -13

The Key: It's clearly a rebuilding year for the Pitt Panthers, who had to break in 5 new starters this season.  They opened 1-3 with a 62-71 loss to Navy, a 78-83 loss to Montana, and a 54-85 loss to Penn State.  Their only win came against UC-Santa Barbara 70-62.  They won't be able to hang with Oklahoma State today.  The Cowboys are 3-1 with the 3 wins coming by 31, 18 and 43 points despite not having their best player in Jeffrey Carroll due to suspension.  Carroll is back now.  Their only loss came to Texas A&M yesterday, and that's a Texas A&M team that beat a ranked West Virginia team by 23 in their opener.  Pitt is 2-11 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the past 3 seasons.  Oklahoma State is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 20% and 40%.  Take Oklahoma State.

7* Xavier/Gonzaga Elite 8 Game of the Year on Xavier +8.5

The Key: The Xavier Musketeers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three outright upsets over Maryland, Florida State and Arizona.  They have had the much more difficult path to the Elite 8 than Gonzaga, which has gone 0-2-1 ATS in its three games against South Dakota State, Northwestern and West Virginia.  The Bulldogs are once again laying too big of a number here as 8.5-point favorites over the Musketeers.  The Musketeers are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 NCAA Tournament games.  Xavier is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games overall.  The Musketeers are 8-1 ATS in all neutral court games this season.  Take Xavier.

7* Butler/UNC Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Butler +7

The Key: The Butler Bulldogs are one of the most under-appreciated teams left in the tournament.  They have cruised to victories over Winthrop and Middle Tennessee.  And now they have the goods to give UNC a run for its money today.  The Tar Heels were fortunate to close on a 12-0 run to beat Arkansas after trailing by 5 late last round.  Butler won't go down without a fight today.  The Bulldogs are 20-4-2 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games.  Butler is 39-10-2 ATS in its last 51 neutral site games.  The Bulldogs are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC opponents.  The ACC teams got 9 teams into the tournament, and there is only one left in the Sweet 16.  That says a lot about how overrated the conference is as a whole, including UNC.  Take Butler.

7* Michigan/Oregon Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon +2

The Key: The Michigan Wolverines have squeaked by by a combined 5 points in wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville to open the NCAA Tournament.  I think their run comes to an end now.  Just think what this line would have been prior to the NCAA Tournament.  Oregon probably would have been a 5-point favorite, but since Michigan is the 'flavor of the month' right now, it is actually a 2-point favorite.  I think it's clear that the books have the wrong team favored because they are over-adjusting for the betting public being all over Michigan.  Oregon is hitting on all cylinders offensively, and it is 9-1 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 3 straight games this season.  The Ducks are 10-1 ATS versus teams who make 48% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons.  Take Oregon.

7* Bakersfield/Colorado State NIT *BAILOUT* on Colorado State -4.5

The Key: The Colorado State Rams are taking the NIT seriously and will certainly be motivated to get to Madison Square Garden.  They beat a solid College of Charleston team 81-74 in the opener, improving to 15-4 at home this season.  Bakersfield took advantage of a California team that did not want to be in the NIT, and head coach Cuonzo Martin was out and left for Missouri shortly after.  The Golden Bears were disinterested, and Bakersfield wanted that game more.  That won't be the case tonight.  The Rams are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Rams are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Colorado State.

7* USC/Baylor *HEAVY HITTER* on USC +6

The Key: The USC Trojans feel invincible right now.  They have erased back-to-back double-digit leads to beat both Providence and SMU.  Now they'll be brimming with confidence as they head into this matchup against Baylor.  And I like the matchup for USC, which has several deadly 3-point shooters that can shoot over the top of the Bears' zone defense.  Baylor is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games off a cover a double-digit favorite.  The Trojans are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games.  The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big 12 opponents.  Take USC.

7* East Region Game of the Year on Florida -2

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers were fortunate to survive a 76-71 scare from UNC-Wilmington in the first round.  They trailed by as many as 14 in that game, which just goes to show how poor they have been playing.  Offensively, they are as challenged as they've ever been.  Now they'll be up against one of the best defensive teams in the country in Florida, which allows 9 fewer points per game than its opponents average on the season.  The Gators are clearly the stronger offensive squad here averaging 78.3 points per game on the season, while the Cavaliers average just 66.9.  We are getting the much better team as only a 2-point favorite and one that will have a home-court edge as this game is being played in Orlando, Florida.  Sign me up.  The Gators are 8-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Take Florida.

7* NKU/Kentucky South Region *BAILOUT* on Kentucky -20

The Key: Northern Kentucky took advantage of an easy path in the Horizon League Tournament to make the Big Dance.  Valparaiso, without its best player in Alec Peters, was upset by Wisconsin-Milwaukee.  Oakland was upset by Youngstown State.  That left NKU playing 11-win Milwaukee in the championship game.  NKU did not far well in non-conference play, losing by 15 at Illinois and by 31 at WVU.  I think they get their doors blown off here by Kentucky in what will be a Wildcat-heavy fan base in Indianapolis.  The Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games as a favorite.  Take Kentucky.

7* Thursday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Winthrop +11.5

The Key: Wintrhop has a legit chance to knock off Butler today.  The Eagles are 26-6 this season with competitive road losses at Dayton and Florida State, and an upset win at Illinois in non-conference.  Winthrop is 22-3 in its last 25 games with its three losses coming by 2, 3 and 3 points.  Butler isn't exactly hitting on all cylinders heading into the NCAA Tournament with back-to-back upset road losses to Seton Hall as 8.5-point favorites and Xavier as 6.5-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Winthrop.

7* NC Central/UC-Davis First Four *HEAVY HITTER* on UC-Davis +3.5

The Key: It's pretty clear to me that the wrong team is favored in this First Four showdown.  Cal Davis played the much tougher non-conference schedule and actually held up pretty well.  They also play in the tougher conference.  NC Central only played one NCAA Tournament team in non-conference play, which was Northern Kentucky.  Cal Davis is 10-1 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.  Davis is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.  Take UC-Davis.

7* NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +11

The Key: Oakland hung tough in non-conference play this season.  It lost to Nevada 78-82, and Nevada is an NCAA Tournament team.  It lost at Michigan State by 12, and upset Georgia 86-79 at home.  Clemson also beat Georgia 74-64 at home for a common opponent.  I think the Golden Grizzlies are good enough to stay within double-digits of the Tigers tonight.  The Golden Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.  Oakland is 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Oakland.

7* Cincinnati/SMU AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +2

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with four straight double-digit victories.  They are hitting on all cylinders right now and will be hungry to avenge their 51-60 loss at SMU in their last meeting.  I haven't been all that impressed with SMU in the tournament thus far as they only beat ECU 81-77 as 19-point favorites and pulled away late for a 70-59 win over UCF.  I think the Bearcats want this one more.  The Mustangs are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games, and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games as a favorite.  Take Cincinnati.

7* Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year on Oregon -2

The Key: The Oregon Ducks played before the Arizona Wildcats yesterday.  Arizona played the late game against UCLA and will be the more fatigued team here.  Oregon handed Arizona its worse loss of the season, an 85-58 beat down in Eugene in their lone meeting.  Now the Ducks are only 2-point favorites in the rematch.  And the Ducks will be motivated here because a win would possibly get them a No. 1 seed, which would keep them in the West for the NCAA Tournament.  Oregon is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  Arizona is 1-12 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the past two seasons.  Take Oregon.

7* AAC Tournament Game of the Year on UCF -2

The Key: UCF won 5 straight games to close out the regular season and improve to 20-10 on the year.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  And based off their first two meetings with Memphis this season, the Knights are clearly the superior team.  They only lost 70-65 at Memphis, but got their revenge with a 72-57 blowout home victory.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who outrebound their opponents by at least 7 boards per game over the past 2 seasons.  Take UCF.

7* Conference USA Game of the Year on UTEP +1.5

The Key: The UTEP Miners have quietly gone 12-2 SU & 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall after losing 12 in a row prior to this streak.  Tim Floyd may be doing the best coaching job in the country.  Now the Miners are underdogs to a Rice team that they beat 79-71 as 8-point road dogs during this streak.  The Miners are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games overall and will cover their 13th straight game here this afternoon.  Take UTEP.

7* St. Mary's/Gonzaga ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Mary's +5.5

The Key: The St. Mary's Gaels want revenge on Gonzaga after losing the first two meetings of the season to the Bulldogs.  I think they get that revenge in the WCC Championship Game tonight as 5.5-point dogs.  It's tough to beat a team three times, and the Gaels have been playing their best basketball coming in.  They are 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have won all six games by at least 13 points, including a 23-point win over Portland and a 31-point win over BYU in their first two games of this conference tournament.  That's the same BYU team that just recently upset Gonzaga 79-71 as 20.5-point dogs on the road.  The Bulldogs only won 77-68 over Santa Clara as 23.5-point favorites in the semifinals.  Take St. Mary's.

7* Big East Game of the Month on Seton Hall +8.5

The Key: The Seton Hall Pirates are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Just like last year, when they heated up down the stretch and won the Big East Tournament, the Pirates are hitting on all cylinders to close the 2016-17 campaign again.  The Pirates have won 3 straight and 6 of their last 8 games overall.  Butler is in a flat spot after back-to-back huge road wins over Villanova and Xavier.  I think the Bulldogs are also being overvalued now off those two wins being asked to lay 8.5 points to the Pirates today.  Seton Hall is 14-3 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  The Pirates are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.  Take Seton Hall.

7* Iowa/Wisconsin ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa +12.5

The Key: This young Iowa team is really coming together down the stretch.  The Hawkeyes have won their last two with a 96-90 (OT) home victory over Indiana and a mightily impressive 83-69 road win at Maryland as 6.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 12.5 points against an overrated Wisconsin team that has lost 4 of its last 5 games coming in.  The Badgers may win this game tonight, but asking them to do so by more than 12.5 points is asking too much.  The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  The Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Iowa.

7* Indiana/Purdue Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +11

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers have been through a brutal stretch.  They are just 1-5 in their last 6 games, but 4 of those losses came by 6 points or less.  They lost by 5 at Wisconsin, by 5 at home to Purdue, by 1 at Minnesota and by 6 at Iowa in OT.  So they have played with some of the Big Ten's best teams.  They were finally rewarded with a 63-62 win over Northwestern last time out to give them some confidence.  Now they'll be looking to avenge that earlier loss to the Boilermakers, and we are getting a tremendous discount on the Hoosiers as 11-point road dogs in the rematch here.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.  They are winning in this spot by 16.3 points per game on average.  Take Indiana.

7* WVU/Baylor Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Baylor +1

The Key: Baylor should not be a home underdog to West Virginia today.  The Bears will be out for revenge from their first loss of the season in blowout fashion at WVU.  Baylor is 14-2 at home this season and hungry for a victory not only for revenge, but also because they have lost 3 of their last 4 coming in.  Five of their 6 losses this season have come by 6 points or less.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Baylor.

7* American Athletic *HEAVY HITTER* on UCF +6

The Key: UCF is one of the most underrated teams in the AAC.  The Knights have own 3 in a row coming in and have a chance to make their season with an upset home victory over Cincinnati today.  They hung tough in a 50-60 loss at Cincinnati on February 8th earlier this month and will be out for revenge.  The Knights are 12-3 at home this season, beating teams by 13.5 points per game on average and holding them to just 57 PPG on 33% shooting.  Their elite defense gives them a chance to pull the upset.  Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS in road games after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  The Bearcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Bearcats are 15-36 ATS in their last 51 Sunday games.  Take UCF.

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Indiana -3.5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers have been through a gauntlet during their 5 straight losses.  They only lost by 5 at Wisconsin, lost by 5 at home to Purdue, lost by 12 at home to Michigan, lost by 1 at Minnesota and lost by 6 in overtime at Iowa.  4 of those 5 teams are going to the NCAA Tournament.  The Hoosiers are still 13-4 at home this season with an average win of 17.6 points per game.  This is a short number for them to be laying.  They'll be hungry for a win on Senior Day, and I think they get it against a struggling Wildcats team that is 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  Take Indiana.

7* Dayton/Davidson A-10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Dayton -2.5

The Key: Dayton is tied with VCU for first place in the Atlantic 10 at 13-2 in conference play this season.  That fact alone assures that the Flyers will not be taking Davidson lightly tonight.  Dayton has been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past several seasons.  The Flyers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Davidson is down this season at just 14-12 on the year and not capable of pulling off this type of upset.  The Wildcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.  Dayton is 6-0 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 2 seasons.  The Flyers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take Dayton.

7* Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas State -3.5

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats picked up a much-needed 64-61 road win at Texas to end a 3-game losing streak and get them back in the NCAA Tournament discussion.  Now they're up against another bubble team in Oklahoma State and need a win here at home, otherwise their chances are slim.  The Wildcats already beat the Cowboys 96-88 on the road earlier this season.  They are 10-4 at home this season and have suffered some excruciatingly close losses all season.  This is a team that is better than its record for sure.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after playing 2 consecutive games as a favorite.  The Cowboys are 14-37-3 ATS in their last 54 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Wildcats are 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings.  Take Kansas State.

7* SEC Game of the Week on Mississippi State -1.5

The Key: Mississippi State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games overall.  The Bulldogs have nearly pulled upsets over Kentucky (lost by 7), South Carolina (lost by 4) and Florida (lost by 5), covering the spread in all of those games.  They also beat Texas A&M by 8, Missouri by 15 and Tennessee by 5 over this stretch.  Home-court advantage has meant a ton in this series as Mississippi State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 home meetings with Ole Miss.  The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take Mississippi State.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Boston College +18.5

The Key: The Florida State Seminoles are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Notre Dame (by 12) and Pitt (by 14).  Now they return home and the betting public is expecting them to blow out Boston College, but I'm not buying it.  This is a tough situation for the Seminoles as they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  Meanwhile, the Eagles haven't played since Tuesday and will be by far the fresher squad.  The Eagles have only lost 1 of their last 9 games by more than this 18.5-point margin as they've been very competitive in ACC play despite their 2-12 record.  That's evident by the fact that they are 9-5 ATS in ACC games this year.  Boston College is 7-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Eagles are 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.  The Eagles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Boston College.

7* Syracuse/Georgia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech +2.5

The Key: Josh Pastner has to be among the coach of the year discussion with what he's doing at Georgia Tech this season.  The Yellow Jackets find themselves on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and in need of a win here Sunday to get on the right side of it.  What they've done at home this season is nothing short of remarkable.  They are 13-3 on their home floor.  They have upset home wins over the likes of North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame.  Now they'll be up against a Syracuse team that is 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in all road games this season. Georgia Tech is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games after a game where it attempted 7 or less free throws.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Orange are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +10

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans have really come on strong down the stretch again this season.  They have won and covered 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  Now they are catching double-digits against a Purdue team that they have gone 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS against in the last 10 meetings.  Of course, the Boilermakers won the first meeting this season in East Lansing by 11, but that works in our favor here as the Spartans will be hungry for revenge.  Michigan State is 9-1 ATS in the month of February over the last 2 seasons.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 visits to Purdue.  Take Michigan State.

7* Cal/Stanford Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Stanford +3

The Key: California and Stanford are fierce rivals.  They met on January 29th in Cal earlier this season.  That game was tied 25-25 at half, but the Bears pulled away for an 11-point victory after intermission.  Now I think the Cardinal have their revenge at home Friday.  After all, Stanford is 16-3 SU in its last 19 home meetings with Cal.  The Golden Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 home meetings.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Stanford.

7* Wisconsin/Michigan ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan -2

The Key: The Michigan Wolverines get the nod Thursday as small home favorites over the Wisconsin Badgers.  They only lost to the Badgers 64-68 on the road in their first meeting, and I think the home court will make all the difference in the rematch.  Plus Michigan is playing great right now coming off a 29-point home win over Michigan State and a 12-point road win at Indiana.  The Badgers just lost at home to Northwestern after needing overtime to beat Nebraska on the road in their last two games.  Michigan is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 home games off a conference road win.  The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Michigan.

7* Iowa State/K-State ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas State -4.5

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats have lost 5 of their last 6 due to a brutal schedule, including 3 straight games against the 3 best teams in the Big 12 in Baylor, Kansas and WVU.  One of those losses was against Iowa State 65-70 on January 24th.  Now the Wildcats get their shot at revenge at home this time around.  They are 10-3 at home this season.  The Cyclones are just 3-5 in true road games.  The Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.  The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Kansas State.

7* Ohio State/Michigan State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State -6.5

The Key: Like clockwork, the Michigan State Spartans are starting to play their best basketball of the season down the stretch again this year.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Now they get to host an Ohio State team with pretty much nothing to play for at this point.  The Spartans are 11-2 at home this season, while the Buckeyes are just 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS on the road.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last 8 meetings.  The Buckeyes are 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Buckeyes are 10-28-1 ATS in their last 39 road games.  The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.  Take Michigan State.

7* Cincinnati/SMU AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on SMU -4.5

The Key:  The Mustangs are one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about.  They have won 7 straight games with 6 of those coming by double-digits to improve to 21-4 on the season.  They are a perfect 14-0 at home this season and a tremendous 8-1 ATS on their home floor, mopping up opponents by an average of 22 points per game.  Now they get their shot at revenge on Cincinnati with the AAC regular season title likely at stake here.  They only lost 64-66 at Cincinnati to prove that they can play with them, and now they prove that they are the best team in the conference with a win and cover at home Sunday.  The Bearcats are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 Sunday games.  The Mustangs are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. American Athletic Conference.  The Mustangs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take SMU.