Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech -

It's been a disappointing season for the Hokies, but this is not near enough points for Virginia Tech to be laying at home against a C-USA opponent. I get that Marshall enters this game 8-3, but they didn't even win their own division in one of the lower ranked FBS conferences. 

The Thundering Herd have also played a cupcake schedule. Out of their 8 wins, the only one against a team that currently has a winning record is last week's win over FIU. A game they won by a mere 3-points, despite recording two non-offensive touchdowns. They avoided all 3 of the top teams out of the C-USA West and in their step up game against C-USA East winner (Middle Tennessee), they lost by 10 at home. 

Any thoughts that the Hokies aren't motivated to play because things didn't go their way can be put to rest after last week's 34-31 upset win at home over in-state rival Virginia. With that win, Virginia Tech simply needs to win this game at home to become bowl eligible. Justin Fuente is going to want those extra practices with this young and talented team and will have his team ready to go on Saturday. 

Hokies are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 18-7 ATS last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. Herd are 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU Win and a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 overall. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Illinois +

Everyone is on Buffalo in this game, yet the line keeps dropping in favor of the Huskies. That's because the sharps know the wrong team is actually favored in this game. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and most will just assume a 10-win team with an offense that averages 35.2 ppg is going to easily cover a short number like this. 

I just think that's a mistake. Northern Illinois is way better than their 7-5 record would lead you to believe. Their 4 non-conference games were against Iowa, Utah, FSU and BYU. The only two games they lost in MAC play were the final two after they had the division title locked up. This team has been eying the Bulls for weeks now and I think they have the talent on the defensive side of the ball to really make life tough on Buffalo. 

We did just see an Ohio defense, that I have rated slightly worse than the Huskies, hold the Bulls to just 17 points and 277 total yards in a 52-17 win. I'm not saying it's going to be that lopsided, but I think worst case here this thing is decided by a field goal with the Huskies likely winning outright. Take Northern Illinois! 

5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys +

We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys. 

That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11. 

The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas! 

3* Titans/Texans MNF ATS DESTROYER on Titans +

Love the value here with Tennessee catching over a field goal here against the Texans. This thing should be closer to a Pick'em, but the books are inflating the number big time, knowing the public is going to pound the Texans. 

Tennessee's a hard team to back because they don't exactly look pretty when they win and they are fresh off an ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis. However, that was a horrible spot for the Titans, who laid it all on the line the previous week in a 34-10 home win over the Patriots. 

Houston on the other hand has won 7 straight since starting out 0-3. An impressive run, but it's hard to get really excited about it. The wins have come against the Colts, Cowboys, Bills, Jags, Dolphins, Broncos and Redskins. They have also been very fortunate in close games, as 5 of the 7 have come by a touchdown or less. 

Titans already beat Houston 20-17 earlier this season on their home field and I think Tennessee is playing much better than they were then. All signs point to a defensive battle and this one likely being decided by a field goal or less. Take Tennessee! 

3* NFL Undervalued Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos +

The books are making it pretty clear who they think will win this game, as they know the public will be all over the Steelers at this price. Pittsburgh has won 6 straight and off an improbable win at Jacksonville. Denver is 4-6 and won just 2 of their last 8 games. 

Broncos do come into this one off a big 23-22 upset win at the Chargers as a 7-point dog and will definitely be playing with a ton of confidence. For me, I just think this is a really tough spot for Pittsburgh. The Steelers used everything they had to rally late to steal the game at Jacksonville and are primed for a bit of a letdown here. 

Keep in mind we know Ben Roethlisberger and the offense doesn't perform at the same level on the road as they do at home and I think the thin air of Denver will make it that much harder on Pittsburgh to play well here. 

Broncos have gone an impressive 29-15 ATS in their last 44 home games vs a top tier team that's outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. Steelers are also 7-19-1 ATS last 27 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Denver! 

5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +

It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown. 

I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright. 

The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down.

Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami! 

3* NFL Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Chargers -

I got no problem laying the big number here with the Chargers at home against the Cardinals. This is a huge bounce back spot for Los Angeles, as they come in off an upset loss at home to the Broncos and can't afford to lose this one with a tough 4 game stretch to close out the year against the Steelers, Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs. 

Shouldn't be much of a problem here for the Chargers to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. Arizona couldn't even beat the Raiders on their home field and it's never good when a bad team is dealing with the injury bug. Several key players are not expected to be available for the Cardinals and they already didn't have the talent to compete. 

Chargers are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a failed cover and 6-1 ATS last 7 in November. Arizona is 3-7-1 ATS last 11 games in month of November and 1-10 ATS last 11 with a total of 42.5 to 49. Take Los Angeles! 

4* Patriots/Jets AFC East PLAY OF THE WEEK on Jets +

This is too good a price to pass up with the Jets as a double-digit division home dog against the Patriots. No surprise here to see New England overvalued, as the books no the public will be chomping at the bit to take the Patriots off their bye, which followed an ugly loss to the Titans, especially against a bad team like the Jets. 

The thing is, New York always seems to find a way to keep it close at home against New England. The last 5 times the Patriots visiting MetLife they have lost outright twice and the 3 wins have all come by a touchdown or less. Last year NE won 24-17 as a 9-point favorite. 

Patriots are also not the same team away from home. They are 7-0 at home and just 2-3 on the road. I think it's a plus here that the rookie Sam Darnold isn't start, as Belichick has owned rookie signal callers. 

The Jets are also coming off of their bye, but it's worth noting the last time they played they lost 41-10 at home to the Bills. That's because NY is 21-6 ATS in home games off a home loss. Take New York! 

4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks +

I like the value here with Seattle catching a field goal on the road against the Panthers. Carolina comes in having lost two straight and can't be trusted against the Seahawks. The Panthers got annihilated at Pittsburgh 52-21 on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and followed it up by giving away the game in a 20-19 loss at Detroit. 

Seattle on the other hand rallied from a double-digit deficit to knock off Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home on Thursday Night Football. Extra few days to prepare is a huge advantage for the Seahawks in this one. 

Seattle has been playing as well as anyone of late. They are 5-3 in their last 8 with 2 of those losses coming to the Rams in games they easily could have won and the other a loss to the red-hot Chargers. 

Seahawks get the perception as this bad road team, but they come in having covered 7 of their last 10 and are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 off a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take Seattle! 

3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +

I really like the value here with USC as a double-digit home dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame needs here is a win here and they will secure a spot in the college football playoff. All the pressure is on the Irish and no one is giving the Trojans a chance here, especially off that ugly loss last week to UCLA. 

I just think USC has had their eyes set on this game and the chance to spoil Notre Dame's perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. We have already seen the Trojans beat a top team at home, as they knocked off Washington State earlier this year. They have lost ta home to ASU and Cal, but both could have went either way. I'm not saying USC pulls off the upset, but I think they keep it within single digits at the Coliseum. Take USC +11.5! 

3* NCAAF In-State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +

I like the value here with Louisville as a big home dog against in-state rival Kentucky. I know it hasn't been pretty for the Cardinals in 2018 and they just lost at home to NC State by 42 last week, but I think some of that poor showing was a result of this team looking ahead to this showdown with the Wildcats.

I think we get a huge effort here from Louisville as they try to not only send their seniors out on a positive note, but also to put some kind of positive note on this disaster of a season. The even bigger key here is I don't think Kentucky is in a really bad spot. I think for them, they felt their season came to and end with that home loss to Georgia, where a win would have put them in the SEC Championship Game.

Just zero incentive here for them in these final few games and it's shown with their play on the field. They lost outright at Tennessee 24-7 and then barely beat Middle Tennessee 34-23 as a 16.5-point favorite. This is a team that couldn't score even when they were playing well, but they aren't playing with the same energy and effort on defense, which is what I believe will keep them from covering this big number. Take Louisville! 

3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on North Carolina +

I really like the value here with the Tar Heels as a decently priced home dog against in-state rival NC State. North Carolina comes into this game sitting at 2-8 and having lost 6 straight games in ACC play. While the losses have continued to pile up, the Tar Heels have been extremely competitive of late. Their last 5 losses are all by 10-points or less and they could have won all 5 of those games. 

I expect this team to come out extremely motivated for this one. Not only are they going to want to play well in their final home game of the season, but they haven't beat NC State on their home field since 2012. Not to mention, the Wolfpack have won the last two in the series. 

I just don't think this year's NC State is as good as people think and have no business here laying this big a number on the road. The Wolfpack just recently lost at home to Wake Forest 27-23 as a 18.5-point favorite and their only two wins in their last 5 games are against FSU and Louisville. 

The most recent was a blowout win and cover at Louisville, but note that NC State is just 11-28 ATS in their last 39 off a conference road win. Tar Heels are 22-7 ATS last 29 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games. Take North Carolina! 

4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida State +

The Seminoles have won 5 straight in this series and while this season has been a huge disappointment, FSU showed it means something to get to a bowl with their strong showing last week in their upset win at home over Boston College.  

While the Seminoles are going to lay it all on the line to get that 6th win an extend their season, there's not a ton here for the Gators to be excited about and this is definitely not a team you can trust laying a number like this. We recently saw them win by just 4 as a 6.5-point home favorite vs S Carolina. The week before that they lost 38-17 as a 4.5-point favorite agains Missouri. 

Seminoles have covered 9 of their last 12 outside of conference, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs the SEC. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a ATS cover. Take Florida State! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +

The wrong team is favored in this one. It's been quite a run for Washington State this season, as no one outside of Pullman was expecting this team to be in this spot after what they lost from last year's team. I just don't think this is the 8th best team in the country. We are talking about a team that lost to a bad USC team and has three other wins by a touchdown or less. 

Washington is the team that was suppose to be the talk of the Pac-12 this season, as a lot of people had them picked to make the playoffs. It just didn't work out like they hoped, but there's no denying the talent on this team. Not only are they playing for 1st place in the Pac-12 North and a spot in the conference title game, there's definitely motivation here to ruin Washington State's season and they would love nothing more than to celebrate on the Cougars home field. 

I think the difference here will be the Huskies defense, which comes in allowing a mere 16.6 ppg and 318 ypg. Keep in mind Washington has had zero problem slowing down Mike Leach and this Washington State offense. In the last 5 meetings between these two rivals, the Cougars haven't scored more than 17 points in any single game. All 5 times the Huskies won by double-digits. Expect more of the same. Take Washington! 

3* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmaker ERROR  on South Florida +

UCF is getting way too much respect here on the road against the Bulls. The Knights are fresh off a huge 38-13 win over Cincinnati at home, which locked up a spot in the AAC title game. They annihilated the spread in that game, as they went off as a mere 6.5-point favorite. On the flip side the Bulls come in having lost 4 straight. It all adds up to this inflated line we are seeing. 

I not only think the Bulls can keep this within two touchdowns, but if a few breaks go there way, I could see them winning this game outright. USF has the speed on both sides of the ball to matchup with the Knights and most importantly have the talent offensively to keep pace with Milton and that UCF offense. 

All the pressure is on the Knights in this one, while USF has absolutely nothing to lose, yet will be extremely motivated (has to feel like their Super Bowl) to put an end to this nation-long winning streak of UCF. Bulls did beat the Knights the last time UCF came to South Florida (last regular-season loss for UCF) and we have seen the Knights struggle away from home. They were extremely fortunate to win at Memphis earlier this year, escaping with a 31-30 win. I see a similar game here that's decided in the final minutes. Take South Florida! 

5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Falcons +

The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up. 

Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that. 

I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta! 

4* Miss St/Ole Miss Egg Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss +

This is just too many points for the Rebels to be catching on their home field in a big rivalry game like this. Sure Mississippi State has the better record and are the more talented team, but you can throw out all the stats when referring to the Egg Bowl. Just last year the Rebels won 31-28 at Mississippi State as a 14-point underdog. The year before that the Bulldogs won 55-20 as a 10-point dog. 

I'm not saying Ole Miss will win this game outright, but it definitely shouldn't surprise you if they do, especially with what's at stake and this being on their home field. The Rebels need a win here to become bowl eligible, as they sit at 5-6. 

Playing on the road has definitely not been the strength of this Mississippi State team, as they are just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS away from home. The biggest problem for the Bulldogs has been the inability of the offense to put up points. I know Ole Miss doesn't have the best of defenses, but this one they have to feel like they can at least make some stops against. 

On the flip side of this, I think the Rebels have the playmakers on offense to score against this talented Mississippi State defense. Take Ole Miss! 

5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions +

I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings. 

The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota. 

Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less. 

We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit! 

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT  on Northern Illinois -

I think we are getting a solid price here on the Huskies due to the fact that people will assume they want nothing to do with this game having already locked up a spot in next week's MAC title game. I'm not buying that at all.

I think having lost last week at home to Miami will have this team locked in for this contest. Keep in mind that while they lost the RedHawks, their defense was outstanding, as Miami won the game on a pick-six. 

If they play any kind of defense in this one, they should win here by double-digits rather easy, as Western Michigan has completely thrown in the towel on the defensive side of the ball. In the Broncos last 3 game they have allowed 42 to Ball State, 59 to Ohio and 51 to Toledo. Take Northern Illinois! 

5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears -

I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should 

The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff. 

Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago! 

4* Eagles/Saints NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Eagles +

Simply too much value here with Philadelphia to pass up. The books have been absolutely destroyed by the Saints this season, as New Orleans has covered every spread they have faced since that ugly win against the Browns back in Week 2. That 7-0 ATS run has New Orleans way overvalued here against the Eagles. 

On the flip side of this, this is about as low as the perceptions has been on the Eagles. Prior to last week's ugly loss to the Cowboys at home, I think most thought this team would snap out of their early season funk. Either way, with a record of 4-5, this is do or die time for Philadelphia. 

There are just some teams that relish the role of the underdog and there's no question all the doubters played a big part in the Eagles Super Bowl run a year ago. I think we see that same nasty fight from this team and while it might not be enough to beat Brees and the Saints on the road, I think they can keep it within a touchdown. Take Philadelphia! 

4* Steelers/Jaguars AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +

Love the value here with Jacksonville as a near touchdown dog at home against the Steelers. This is it for the Jaguars, who have lost 5 straight and simply can't afford a loss here if they want to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. 

This is still a talented football team and they nearly made a big comeback last week in Indy, as they were driving to at worst force OT (already in FG range), but fumbled and lost 29-26. They got back their star running back in Fournette and the offense responded with more than 400 yards, as Bortles threw for 300+. 

Pittsburgh is simply way overvalued here due to the fact that they have covered 5 straight. We saw this team really struggle with Jacksonville last year. The Jaguars beat them in Pittsburgh twice last year. 30-9 in the regular-season and 45-42 in the playoffs. 

Jacksonville is also much better in the role of the dog. In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Jacksonville! 

4* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Clemson -

I'll lay the big number with the Tigers in this one. Clemson has covered 5 straight games and a lot of them haven't been close. They won by 61 as a 39-point favorite against Louisville a couple games back and fresh off a cover as a 17.5-point road favorite against a good Boston College team. 

I think the fact that Duke comes in having won two straight including an upset win at Miami, people will talk themselves into the Blue Devils being able to keep this game close. I just don't see it. I think everyone talking about how Alabama is this unbeatable team and everyone else is just playing for 2nd has really lit a fire under this Clemson team. 

Not only are they doing whatever they want offensively since inserting Trevor Lawrence as the starting quarterback, but the defense is playing up to their potential after a sluggish start to the season. 

In their last 5 games combined they have given up 10 points in the 1st half of play and 7 of those came on a 74-yard punt return in last weeks game against BC. Might I mention those were the only points they gave up in that entire game. I don't see Duke getting more than 14 and the Tigers scoring fewer than 42. Take Clemson! 

3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +

This is the perfect spot to jump on the Seminoles at home against the Eagles. There's no denying it's been a miserable season for Florida State, but I think there's still some fight left in this team and they need to win their last 2 to become bowl eligible. 

They couldn't be catching Boston College at a better time. The Eagles are in a massive letdown spot, as they come in off a huge showdown against Clemson, where if they would have won, they would be looking at a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Now there's nothing to play for but pride and I just don't see them being interested in this one. Take Florida State! 

3* USC/UCLA PAC-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +

The fact that the books are begging you to take USC, tells you all you need to know about what the right side is in this one. UCLA might be sitting at 2-8 and have lost 3 straight, but they aren't just playing for this season. This is year one under Chip Kelly and they need some positives to take into next year. 

They have been a lot more competitive of late. While they lost 42-21 at Oregon, they actually outgained the Ducks 496 to 492 with 29 first downs to Oregon's 20. Last week they lost 31-28 at ASU were right there in total yards 480-439. I know USC is down, but getting a win over that program would be huge for Kelly in recruiting and I also think there's more drama going on behind the scenes at USC, as I think Clay Helton is about to get shown the door. 

Bruins have gone an impressive 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off back-to-back conference losses where they allowed 31+ points and 9-1 in their last 10 after giving up 31+ points in 3 straight. Take UCLA! 

3* W Virginia/OK State BIG 12 PLAY OF T DAY on Oklahoma State +

I like the Cowboys to keep this thing closer than expected, as I think they got a great shot of winning this thing outright. Oklahoma State nearly upset rival Oklahoma last week. I think the perception here is they are in-store for a letdown off that close loss to the Sooners.

I don't see that at all. I think this team will be extremely motivated to ruin the Mountaineers season and secure a bowl bid on their home field. West Virginia has all the pressure on them in this one and these late road trips are when we typically see some big upsets. I'm still not completely sold on this Mountaineers team. They were dominated in a loss at ISU and should of lost at Texas. 

Cowboys are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 with a total of 63 or more and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after two straight games where 60+ points were scored. Take Oklahoma State!

3* Nebraska/Mich St BIG 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +

Great price here to back the Spartans on the road against the Cornhuskers. Michigan State has one of these best defenses in the country. The Spartans come in allowing 19.7 ppg and just 327 ypg. They are as good as it gets against the run, as they are giving up 2.5 yards/carry and a mere 76 yards/game. 

That's should be the difference here. With winds expected to be blowing at close to 20 mph, it's going to be really hard for either team to establish anything in the passing game. That really negates the big play potential for this Nebraska offense. The Cornhuskers defense has allowed at least 28 in every Big Ten game and are giving up 38.9 ppg in conference play. As poor as the Spartans are offensively, they will be able to score enough to get the win. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -

I get that Penn State is essentially playing for pride at this point, but I really like how this team responded from that ugly loss to Michigan, beating Wisconsin by double-digits. The Nittany Lions haven't laid it on an opponent since they throttled Illinois 63-24 way back on Sept. 20th. 

I just think this team is going to be looking to take out some of their frustration with how the season has gone in this one. I also don't think there's anything Rutgers can do to stop it. I think the Scarlet Knights have accepted this season for the disaster that it is and just aren't that motivated to play these final two games. 

Sure they might come out with some fight given it's their last home game, but once they get down by two scores, they aren't going to hesitate to throw in the towel. For a team like Rutgers to keep it close against an offense like Penn State, you have to be able to throw the football and the Scarlet Knights have one of these worst passings attacks in the country, which is averaging 143 ypg and own a 49.7 completion rate.

Nittany Lions are 21-4 ATS in their last 35 off a conference win, while Rutgers is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a loss by 35 or more (fell 42-7 to Michigan last time out). Take Penn State! 

4* NCAAF Late Night ATS Bailout BLOWOUT on New Mexico +

There's too much value here to pass up with the Lobos as a near 3-touchdown dog on their home field. This is just a classic example of the nationally ranked and house hold name being overvalued in a prime time game. 

Not the easiest of spots for the Broncos. Boise State is fresh off that huge win at home over Fresno State, where they went off as a dog. Now they got a massive game on deck against Utah State. I get they have to win this one for next week's to matter, but hard for them to not look ahead to that one. 

Given that game on deck, you have to think they just want to get a win and get out. Once they get a comfortable lead, they are going to have to think about resting guys and making sure no one gets hurt. So if things do get out of hand, the backdoor should be open for the Lobos. 

New Mexico played Boise tough on the road last year, losing by 14 as a 17-point dog. I get they are 3-7 and don't have bowl eligibility to play for, but teams in the MWC get up for Boise and they know what's at stake for the Broncos in this game. 

Lobos come in having lost 5 straight and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games off 3 straight conference losses. We saw this exact same trend cash in their last home game in a cover against San Diego State. A team that beat Boise earlier this year. Take New Mexico! 

3* FAU/N Texas NCAAF Weeknight DESTROYER on Florida Atlantic +

This North Texas team can't be trusted and are getting too much respect here against Lane Kiffin's Owls. It's been a bit of a disappointing season for FAU, but it's not as bad as you might think given their 5-5 record. Two of those losses were on the road against Oklahoma and UCF. They also lost by 1 at Middle Tenn and fell to quality teams in Marshall and La Tech. 

Most are going to take North Texas here because the perception is that they will be out for revenge from last year's two losses to FAU, including the one most remember in the C-USA title game. I just don't think it's going to be that easy for the Mean Green, who just lost outright as a 15.5-point favorite to the Monarchs. 

Owls on the other hand are coming in off arguably their best 2-game stretch of the season, as they went on the road and rolled FIU 49-14 and followed that up with a 34-15 win against WKU. I don't think it will be that lopsided against North Texas, but I do expect them to win this one outright. Take FAU! 

5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR  on Packers +

There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals. 

While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense. 

The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* Giants/49ers MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on 49ers -

I think the perception here is that these are two bad teams and the value is with New York as a dog. I'm not buying it. Everyone keeps thinking the Giants are better than what they have shown because they got two dynamic players in Odell Beckham and Saquan Barkley. The problem is, the offensive line can't block or pass protect and Eli Manning is simply not very good anymore. 

Add in the fact there's nothing for New York to play for with a record of 1-7 and this is not a team I would want anything to do with on the road. As for the 49ers, I think we can confidently say they are still playing hard after the effort they gave on Thursday Night Football last week against the Raiders. You can say what you want about Nick Mullens first start being a fluke because it came against a bad Oakland team, but he looked like the real deal. 

There's also something about Monday Night Football that brings out the best in San Francisco. The 49ers are a ridiculous 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games played on MNF. Take San Francisco! 

3* NFL Week 10 Vegas ATS SHOCKER on Raiders +

Oakland couldn't have looked much worse than they did in a 34-3 loss to the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. A game the Raiders were actually favored to win. The public isn't going to want anything to do with this team and the books know it. They have drastically inflated this line on the Chargers and there's just no way I'm passing up on a double-digit home dog. 

It's one thing for the Raiders to not show up against a bad 49ers team that had a guy no one heard of playing quarterback, but I'm confident they will show up here at home against a hated division rival. 

Last 15 times Derek Carr has been a dog of 6.5 to 13.5 points the Raiders have gone an impressive 10-5 ATS. Oakland is also 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Chargers are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. Take Oakland! 

4* NFC North Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK  on Lions +

There's simply too much value here with Detroit as a touchdown dog in Sunday's NFC North clash with the Bears. Chicago is sitting on top the division and off back-to-back blowout wins over the Jets and Bills. The Lions on the other hand have lost 2 straight and not exactly looked great in the process, scoring just 14 at home against the Seahawks and 9 last week at Minnesota. 

All this has the line here inflated to the point where you have to take a shot with the Lions. I get Chicago has a great defense, but I'm not the least bit sold on that Bears offense and this Detroit defense has been playing better of late. Matthew Stafford has also enjoyed recent trips to Soldier Field, winning 4 of 5. 

Bears are a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when coming off back-to-back covers as a favorite and the Lions are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after trailing by 10+ points at the half in each of their last 2. Take Detroit! 

3* NFL Week 10 Underdog PLAY OF TH DAY on Bengals +

I know Cincinnati is dealing with some injuries and likely won't have star wide A.J. Green on the field, but I think that only adds to the already awful spot for New Orleans. Most are just going to assume the Saints keep rolling after their big win over the Rams, but I just think this a massive flat spot. 

The last 4 games have really all been big time spots for New Orleans. The first was a home game against the Redskins on MNF where Brees was going for the passing yards all-time record. Then came back-to-back grinding road games against Baltimore and Minnesota before a showdown with LA for the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. On deck is a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs at home. 

Drew Brees has faced the Saints 3 times and gone just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. Andy Dalton on the other hand is an impressive 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last 9 times the Bengals have been listed as a home dog. Take Cincinnati! 

5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +

Big time value here with Tennessee as a touchdown dog at home against the Patriots. After that ugly start to the year New England has won 6 straight and gone 5-1 ATS in the process. After the books got killed in Week 9, they are making the public pay and this is just way too many points for the Patriots to be laying on the road against a good team like the Titans. 

I know Tennessee doesn't always look pretty, but they are 4-4 and have covered 5 of their last 7. The most recent being a 28-14 win at Dallas as a 4-point dog. This Titans defense is way better than they get credit for. Their strength is against the pass, as they rank 7th allowing just 239.0 ypg. 

While the offense can look anemic at times, this Patriots defense is one they should be able to move the ball against. NE is allowing 23.5 points/game, 420 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play on the road. I don't think there's a ton of difference from Tennessee and say the Bears, yet the NE was a mere 2-point favorite at Chicago and needed a lot to go right to win that game. 

Titans are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Tennessee! 

3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +

I just think the price is right to take a shot on the Eagles here as a massive home dog. Clemson couldn't have looked much better since that scare against Syracuse at home. They beat Wake Forest 63-3, NC State 41-7, FSU 59-10 and Louisville 77-16. Impressive to say the least, but outside of the NC State game, those other 3 teams aren't very good and NC State just lost at home to the Demon Deacons with WF playing a backup QB. 

Simply put, the ACC is way down this year, but Boston College is one of the better teams in this league. I think Chestnut Hill is one of the more difficult places to play in the ACC, especially when you got a good BC team hosting a top tier opponent like the Tigers. One thing is for sure, the Eagles are going to play their hearts out with a chance to potentially move into the drivers seat to the ACC Atlantic title. 

I don't think that's going to happen, but with the way BC can run the football, they should be able to keep that Clemson offense off the field and I think the Eagles defense will be aided by mother nature, as temps will be in the high 30's with winds at close to 15 mph.

Wouldn't be the first time the books have undervalued BC. Eagles are 15-6 ATS last 21 games overall, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 off a cover and 11-1 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take Boston College! 

4* NCAAF NON-CONF (FSU/ND) GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +

As difficult as it might be to take Florida State, I really like the Seminoles to give the Irish a major scare on Saturday. Not only is Notre Dame starting to feel the pressure of each game down the stretch, but now they have to play without starting quarterback Ian Book, who is dealing with a rib injury. 

It will be back to Brandon Wimbush for the Notre Dame offense and while he's experienced and fully capable of guiding this team to a victory, the offense won't be as potent with him under center. While the Irish have everything to lose, FSU has nothing to lose at this point and that makes them a dangerous team. Expect them to go for it on 4th down and toss in a few trick plays to try and pull off the upset and keep slim homes of making a bowl game alive. 

Irish have historically struggled against the number this time of the year. Notre Dame is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 home games in the month of November and 7-18-1 in their last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Look for the Seminoles to keep it closer than expected. Take Florida State! 

3* NCAAF AAC PLAY OF THE DAY  on Temple +

I like the value here with Temple as a dog against the Cougars. I think people are just assuming that the Owls aren't going to show up for this one off that heartbreaking loss at UCF. At the same time, they are writing off Houston's ugly 45-31 loss at SMU as a bad showing in a game they didn't have to win (still control their own destiny for ACC West title). 

I just think the books are begging for you to take Houston in this one, when Temple might be the better team. The Owls have been a different team since their 0-2 start and are 5-2 in their last 7 with their only losses AT BC and UCF. I think the defense for Temple can slow down this Cougars attack and the Owls will be able to move the ball against a Houston defense that has allowed 35+ in each of their last 3 games. 

Owls are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 conference games, 13-5 ATS last 18 vs a team with a winning record, 41-19 in their last 60 road games and 21-7 ATS last 28 off a SU loss. Take Temple! 

4* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah -

I think we are getting a great price here on the Utes as a small home favorite against the Ducks. I know Utah is coming off a loss at ASU and in the defeat lost starting quarterback Tyler Huntley and then later in the week saw leading rusher Zack Moss go down to a season-ending injury. Even with those two big injuries, I like Utah to win this game and cover at home. 

Oregon had everything in front of them when they pulled off the big upset win at home over Washington, but the Ducks lost the next week at Washington State and just haven't been the same. They followed up the loss to the Cougars with an awful 44-15 loss at Arizona and while the rebounded with a 42-21 win at home against UCLA, they had 9 fewer first downs than the Bruins and UCLA outgained the Ducks 496-492. 

Utah backup quarterback Jason Shelly didn't look great in relief against the Sun Devils, but that was on the road against a good defense and he was pressed into a tough spot playing from behind. Oregon doesn't pose near the threat defensively and he'll be much better prepared. There's also still a lot still at stake for Utah, who is sitting tied on top the Pac-12 South at 4-3 with USC and Arizona.

Ducks are 2-10 ATS last 12 conference road games and 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after playing 3 straight conference games (later in the year). Oregon is also a mere 2-10 ATS last 12 off a home win and 0-7 off a win by 21 or more. Take Utah! 

4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +

It would be easy to want to jump on Alabama here after watching them go into LSU and beat the No. 3 team in the country 29-0 with a 576 to 196 edge in total yards and 29 first downs to the Tigers 13. I just think people don't understand how difficult it is to play after investing so much in the game the previous week, especially this late in the year. 

Alabama head coach Nick Saban has came out and said just how much that game against LSU meant to him and his team and how hard it will be for them to emotionally get up for the Bulldogs. They have traditionally played Mississippi State after facing LSU. That was the case last year and they were fortunate to win. They were down 7 in the 4th quarter and won the game on a TD with 25 seconds to play. 

While the Bulldogs are 7-3 and sitting at No. 16 in the country, they haven't been as good as some people expected, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The defense has been out of this world good. Mississippi State has allowed more than 20 points once all season and that was more a result of the offense putting the defense in a bad spot. 

With no shot at winning the conference and a bowl game already locked up, this is the Bulldogs Super Bowl of 2018. I don't know if they have enough offense to pull it off, but I love them to keep it within the number. Take Mississippi State! 

3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY  on Michigan State +

I'm going to grab the points here with the Spartans at home. Everyone just keeps assuming Ohio State is going to morph into this different team when they haven't played well in quite some time. I think they fooled some people with wins over TCU and Penn State, two games they could have easily lost. They didn't play well at home against Minnesota, got annihilated at Purdue and barely held on to beat a 1-win Nebraska team everyone thought they would destroy (17-point favorite). 

Now they are laying points on the road against a Michigan State team that really thrives in the underdog role, especially at home. I know they lost as a home dog to Michigan a few weeks back, but I think the Wolverines are way better than the Buckeyes. These two teams have played 3 common opponents in league play. Michigan State is 3-0 and Ohio State is 2-1. Spartans have allowed 17.0 ppg and Buckeyes 33.7 ppg. 

Not to mention the extra motivation that the Spartans are going to have after last year's embarrassing 48-3 loss at Ohio State. I'll take the points as insurance, but I like home dog to win outright. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU +

No one is going to give TCU any shot of winning this game and with all the pressure that's on West Virginia to win out and potentially make the playoffs, I think this is the definition of a trap game. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers are off that thrilling 42-41 win at Texas, where they scored a touchdown in the final seconds and instead of playing for overtime, they went for two and got it. 

Easy for them to look past the Horned Frogs, who were just 1-5 in their previous 6 games before sneaking out a win at home against Kansas State thanks to a missed extra point by the Wildcats. I know it's nothing to be impressed with, but any kind of momentum is a big positive for TCU going into this fight. 

The Horned Frogs are going to be extremely motivated here to play spoiler and they still need to win 2 of their final 3 to get bowl eligible. I don't know if they can pull off the upset, but it's definitely not out of the question with how strong they are defensively. 

The one game that West Virginia lost was against Iowa State, who I think is right there with TCU for the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones didn't just keep Will Grier and the Mountaineers in check, they held them to 9 first downs and 152 total yards. Horned Frogs are 28th in the country vs the pass (190.7 ypg), which is where you have to be strong to slow down WV. Look for this to be a low-scoring game and for the Horned Frogs to keep it close. Take TCU! 

4* Friday Night ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK  on Syracuse -

This one is pretty straight forward. Only one of these teams is interested in playing football in the final month of the season. Louisville has hit rock bottom following the departure of Lamar Jackson and it feels like the team has quit on head coach Bobby Petrinio. 

The Cardinals haven't won a game since beating WKU by a mere 3-points as a 23.5-point favorite in the middle of September. They are an atrocious 1-8 ATS this season, as the books just can't give them enough points. A true sign of a team not caring is defense and Louisville is allowing a ridiculous 48.7 ppg and 501.2 ypg in ACC play, where they are getting outscored by more than 27 ppg. 

I just think with how potent the Orange are offensively and the defense figuring to play well in front of a rowdy home crowd for a prime time game, this is going to get ugly in a hurry. Don't think for a second Dino Babers and his players haven't forgot about how this series has gone the last two years. Louisville whooped them 62-28 on their home field in 2016 and last year beat by 46. Take Syracuse! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Northern Illinois

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Titans

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NFL Situational ATS Vegas INSIDER on Packers +

Great spot here to take a shot on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers as a near touchdown underdog. Last week Green Bay was a near double-digit dog at the Rams and they nearly won the game outright, losing by just two points. I don't know why this team isn't getting more love than they are, but there's not many times I won't take this may points with Rodgers. 

Green Bay has the numbers of a top team, as they are 5th in the NFL in total offense (412.1 ypg) and 12th in total defense (340.9 ypg). Patriots have won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch, which is part of the reason we are getting the number we are. I know it's hard to win in New England this time of year, but I think the Packers need this game more and I like their chances of at worst keeping it within the number. 

Packers are 35-18 ATS in their last 53 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and there's a great system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are a strong passing team (completing 60% or better) and have gained 6.75 or more yards/attempt in each of their last 4 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Green Bay! 

3* NFL Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Browns +

The Chiefs not only were the talk of the NFL early on, they opened the season a perfect 7-0 ATS before finally failing to cover last week as a 10-point home favorite against the Broncos. KC was in a good spot to cover, as they were up 30-14 in the 2nd half. I don't think that will keep the public from backing the Chiefs and I think there's a ton of value here going against them.

The Browns haven't been as good as they had hoped and their most recent blowout loss at Pittsburgh resulted in head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley getting fired. Most will just think Cleveland has no shot of keeping this close, but I like interim head coach Gregg Williams (defensive coordinator) and you almost always see a team play their best after a big coaching change. 

The Browns got the talent defensively, to get pressure on Mahomet and force him into some mistakes. This is also a big letdown spot for the Chiefs, who have to think they can just show up here and win. KC's defense has played well of late at home, but that stop unit has really struggled on the road. Look for Baker Mayfield to have a big game here and maybe even lead the Browns to an upset win. Take Cleveland! 

4* Steelers/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE WEEK on Ravens -

I like the value here with Baltimore laying less than a field goal at home against the Steelers. I think the fact that Pittsburgh has won 3 straight, while the Ravens have lost 3 of 4 has people thinking we will see a different result than the last time these two teams played (Baltimore won 26-14 at Pittsburgh earlier this season)

Not me. I expect a similar outcome with the Ravens defense keeping the Steelers in check and Baltimore  winning here by double-digits. The Ravens let one get away at Cleveland off that big win over Pittsburgh, then suffered a crushing loss at home to the Saints and failed to bounce back not eh road against a good Carolina team. I don't think Baltimore has regressed at all and they will take care of business at home. 

History suggest Pittsburgh will struggle against the number after their recent success. The Steelers are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5. Pittsburgh is also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Ravens come in having gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a loss and 8-3 in their last 11 after losing their previous game by more than 14 points. Take Baltimore! 

5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills +

The public perception couldn't be any worse on the Bills right now. No one wants anything to do with backing Buffalo, especially given that Nathan Peterman is expected to start. I get it, but there's just too much value here with the Bills as a double-digit home dog. 

Chicago's a good team, but they aren't the Patriots and shouldn't be laying this many points on the road, especially with their limitations offensively and how strong Buffalo is on the defensive side of the ball. It was a bit of a fluke the Bills didn't cover the 13.5-point spread agains the Patriots. I not only think they will cover this big number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. 

I know there's talk out there about the Bears not looking past the Bills, but that's easier said than done, especially with two big division home games on deck. I think the difference here will be Buffalo's defense taking away Chicago's running game and making Trubisky beat them. 

Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game at home and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game  where they gained 6 or more yards/play. Take Buffalo! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NCAAF Big Money PLAY OF THE DAY Mississippi State -

I think a lot of people will consider grabbing the points with Louisiana Tech, as they are going to feel like this is a big trap game for the Bulldogs. Technically speaking it is, as Mississippi State is off the big home win over Texas A&M and has a game at Alabama on deck next Saturday. I just don't think a less than 100% Bulldogs team can win here by at least 4 touchdowns. 

A lot of people will point to how well La Tech played in their near upset win over LSU earlier this season, but that's the exact reason why I don't think Mississippi State is going to take this team lightly. Keep in mind LSU was up 24-0 midway thru the 3rd quarter before taking their foot completely off the gas. 

I also think the fact that the Bulldogs had lost 3 of their previous 4 before beating Texas A&M, is another reason why they will show up here. It's fun beating up on lessor competition, especially when things aren't going your way. I think the offense is desperate to have one of those breakout games where they score 50+ points and that defense front should make life miserable for the visiting Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State! 

4* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +

Utah is simply getting way too much love right now. The Utes have won and covered 4 straight. The books have taken notice and really inflated this line, as there's no way Utah should be laying over a touchdown on the road to Arizona State. 

The Sun Devils have been hit or miss, but they come into this one off a 3-point win at USC as a 3-point dog. They are just 2-4 in their last 6 games, but all 4 losses have come by a touchdown or less. It's also been a brutal stretch, as they have hosted Michigan State and Stanford, while playing no the road against the likes of San Diego St, Washington, Colorado and USC. 

I like this Utah team, but I think people are jumping the gun a little bit on this team. The win at Stanford was impressive, but they also caught the Cardinal off back-to-back massive road games against Oregon and Notre Dame. The other 3 wins were at home against Arizona and USC and at UCLA. This team lost by 14 at Washington, barely beat Northern Illinois on the road and lost at Washington State. 

I think Arizona State has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Sun Devils are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against strong defensive teams like Utah, who allow 4.5 or less yards/play and have won these games outright by an average score of 31-24. Take Arizona State! 

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas State +

I just think there's way too much wrong with this TCU team for them to be laying over a touchdown to anyone in the Big 12. I get Kansas State isn't that good, but the Horned Frogs just lost to Kansas. The only way a Gary Patterson coached team loses to a team like Kansas, is the players have given up on themselves and each other. 

It's not easy for these kids to keep fighting when things go so badly, especially when the expectations are so high coming into the year. TCU played in the Big 12 title last year and they were thinking conference title. They go into November not even remotely in the conversation. They haven't covered since Sept. 7th at SMU. Now is not the time to play the due factor with this team. They might win, but I'm confident it will be by 7 or less if they do. Take Kansas State! 

3* NCAAF Vegas Line MISTAKE on Lafayette +

Great value here with the Ragin' Cajuns as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. Lafayette has been playing well. They have won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss coming on the road against App State by a final of just 27-17.

They more than showed they could hang with the top tier talent in this league. Keep in mind with their 4-4 overall record. They played Alabama and Mississippi State on the road and happened to lose the game in between those two SEC powers to Costal Carolina (by only 2). 

Troy's a good team, but this is too many points for them to be laying in this spot. While this game could have a big impact on the Sun Belt race, it's going to be hard for Troy to not look ahead to next week's showdown at Georgia Southern. A game they have to feel like they have to win to have any real shot at the East Division title. 

I think this is going to be a very competitive game that's decided late. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Ragin' Cajuns won here outright. Take Lafayette! 

3* Group of 5 PLAY OF THE DAY on UL-Monroe +

Hard to not like the value here with the Warhawks getting over a touchdown at home against the Eagles. The public doesn't follow the Sun Belt closely, but most average fans are aware of the fact that Georgia Southern knocked off then No. 25 Appalachian State last week. The Eagles didn't just win, they dominated 34-14 as a 11-point dog. 

I think people have a hard time not betting teams off a big upset win, especially at what to them looks like a favorable price. Not to mention the Eagles have gone 7-1 ATS on the season. The books set a bad line last week on Georgia Southern and have made up for it here. 

This is a big sandwich game for Georgia Southern, not only are they off the big win over App State, but they have a massive game on deck against Troy that they have to win. A loss here and a win over Troy they still control their own destiny for the East title and spot in the Sun Belt title game. I think the Warhawks win this one outright. Take ULM +7.5! 

4* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor +

I think this is the prime spot to fade Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are fresh off that upset win at home against Texas. They put everything they had into that game. Now they are a touchdown favorite on the road to a Baylor team that was just annihilated by West Virginia last week 58-14. A game a lot of people watched, with it being a weekday matchup. 

I think those two outcomes have created amazing value on the Bears, who I think are going to win this game outright. Baylor is much-improved over last year and just a couple weeks ago they nearly knocked off Texas on the road. As for Oklahoma State, this team has disappointed more than it's flashed what we saw against the Longhorns. The week before they got rolled 31-12 at Kansas State and have lost at home to ISU and Texas Tech. 

I like Baylor head coach Matt Rhule and believe it's going to be just another year or two before he's got this team competing at the top of this conference. I'm willing to bet he has his team fired up after that ugly performance and I just don't see the Cowboys being able to match that intensity on the road, especially with a certain in-state rival on deck named Oklahoma. Take Baylor! 

4* NCAAF Power 5 Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +

I think the perception here is that Ohio State is going to return from their bye week and take out all their frustration from that ugly loss at Purdue on Nebraska. I would expect Ohio State to win this game, but I don't see them pulling away by more than 3 scores. 

I know it was a struggle for Nebraska to win a game, but they have really played well in several games. Prior to getting that elusive first win over Minnesota, they blew a late lead in a 34-31 loss at Northwestern and they covered as 18.5-point dogs in a loss at Wisconsin. 

The Cornhuskers are also coming out of their bye and while this is a must-win for Ohio State if they want to have a realistic shot of winning the Big Ten East and making the playoffs, I think it will be hard for them to take this Nebraska team seriously and not look ahead just a little to next week's game at Michigan State. 

Keep in mind it wasn't just one bad game at Purdue. Ohio State didn't look all that great in their previous game at home against Minnesota, winning by a final score of 30-14 as a 29-point favorite. They haven't covered a game since beating Tulane 49-6 back in late September. 

Over the last 5 seasons, home teams that lost by 28 or more points to the spread in their previous game are a mere 6-28 (18%) ATS in weeks 10 through 13. Take Nebraska! 

4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss

I like the value here with Ole Miss as a home dog to the Gamecocks. I know it's basically a pick'em but don't think for a second the Rebels don't know who is favored to win. I just think Ole Miss is better than they get credit for and should be at least a field goal favorite here against South Carolina. 

The Gamecocks barely won at home last week against Tennessee and really haven't lived up to their expectations. They came into this season thinking SEC East title. That's pretty much out the window and I think for them it's now all about the two big road games to end the season with Florida and Clemson. The Gators are up next week and I think South Carolina has a hard time matching the intensity of the Rebels. 

Fading the Gamecocks off a win has been very profitable. South Carolina is 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Look for them to make it 0-6 after Saturday. Take Ole Miss! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SMASH on Syracuse -

I think we are getting a great price here to back Syracuse. This has already been a special season for the Orange. They have secured their first bowl bid since 2013 and are ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 2001.

They are 6-2 and have to be thinking double-digit wins right now. I just don't see them laying an egg here against Wake Forest and I feel like that's the only way they don't win by at least a touchdown. Don't be fooled by the Demon Deacons 56-35 win at Louisville last week. The Cardinals are trash and playing like it. This is still the same team that lost 63-3 at home to Clemson, lost by 21 to an awful FSU team and lost by double-digits at home to BC. 

The defense has been a major problem for Wake and will be picked apart by Eric Dungey and this Orange offense that has put up 91 in their last 2 games. Demon Deacons won't be able to keep pace. Take Syracuse! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Maryland

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin -

I got no problem here laying the big number on the Badgers at home. Wisconsin will have zero problem here winning by more than the spread against a horrible Rutgers team. The Badgers come into this one off a 31-17 loss at Northwestern, which really put them behind the 8-ball in the Big Ten West, but they still aren't out of it. 

Either way, Wisconsin isn't a team to lay down when things aren't going their way. If anything, the Badgers are going to be that much more locked in for this Saturday's game and that's bad news for a Rutgers team that's 0-5 in conference play and haven't won since beating Texas State at home in their season opener. 

I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because Rutgers only lost by 3-points at home to Northwestern in their last game and they are off a bye. I look more at how this team lost by by 49 at Ohio State this season and that's not their only bad showing on the road. They lost by 41 at Kansas and by 27 at Maryland. 

Rutgers is getting outscored by an average of 35 ppg on the road (47-8) and Wisconsin is beating teams by an average of 21 (38-17) at home. It's also worth noting that the Scarlet Knights haven't scored more than 17 points in their last 7 games. I don't think they get to that mark and the Badgers should be pushing 50. Take Wisconsin! 

4* Raiders/49ers NFC West GAME OF THE WEEK on 49ers -

San Francisco should have no problem here cashing in a win against the Raiders. This has been a complete disaster of a first season for Oakland under new head coach Jon Gruden. It started with the team trading away not just their best defensive player, but one of the best the NFL has to offer in Khalil Mack. The defense clearly misses him, as Oakland enters tonight's game giving up 31.1 points/game. 

Prior to last week's game against the Colts they traded star wide out Amari Cooper to Dallas. While I think a lot of the players already threw in the white towel on this season, I think that was the icing on the cake. Raiders responded just as you would expect and lost 42-28 at home to the Colts. 

I know this is the battle of the bay and all that, but that's not really a thing when you have a matchup of two 1-win teams. I'm sure Oakland will show up against some of the top teams later on, but I don't think they care about this game at all. Most players already want nothing to do with playing on the road in these Thursday game on short rest. 

With or without C.J. Beathard at quarterback, I think the 49ers win here without much problem, as this team at least still has some fight in them. Note that SF backup quarterback Nick Mullens did flash some nice potential in the preseason and has a great offensive mind calling the plays. Take San Francisco! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Temple

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Ball State +

I like the value here with the Cardinals as a 3-score underdog against the Rockets. Ball State is getting zero respect here from the books and a big reason for that is the injury to starting quarterback Riley Neal, who will not play in this one. That's a big loss for Ball State, but they got a capable backup in Drew Plitt, who has played in 4 games and flashed some potential. 

I could see why you would hesitate to take the Cardinals if Toledo featured a great defense, but the Rockets have been pretty bad on that side of the ball this year. Toledo is 98th in the country against the run (186.4 ypg) and 112th against the pass (273.4 ypg). Not only should Ball State be able to score early and often, but if they do struggle, the backdoor figures to be wide open for a late cover. 

I also think the injury to Neal could make it difficult for Toledo to give this Cardinals team their full attention. They have to feel like all they have to do is show up to get the win and making it even harder to give Ball State their full attention is a massive game on deck against Northern Illinois, which they need to win to have any shot at defending their MAC West title. 

Cardinals have had a lot of success against the number at the Glass Bowl, as they have covered 7 of their last 10 visits to Toledo. The Rockets are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they scored 40+ points. Take Ball State! 

4* Miami/Buffalo MAC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami +

Buffalo is getting way to much respect here at home against a good Miami team. Don't be fooled by the RedHawks 3-5 record. They went 0-4 in non-conference play, losing to the likes of Marshall, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Their only loss inside conference play is a mere 1-point defeat at home to Western Michigan.

This team has been extremely undervalued since their 0-3 start and since losing their first 3, they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. The thing is Buffalo has been even better. The Bulls are 7-1 overall and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7. The public is fully on board with this team and to them it's not asking a lot to win by at least a touchdown. 

I not only think the Bulls will struggle to cover this number, but I could easily see the RedHawks winning this game outright. These two teams have played two common opponents and Miami has looked better in each. The RedHawks went on the road and beat Akron 41-17, Buffalo only beat them 24-6 at home. Miami lost in overtime at Army 31-30 and the Bulls lost at home to the Black Knights 42-13. 

I just think these are two very evenly matched teams, much more so than this spread would suggest. RedHawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road. Take Miami! 

5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills +

We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it. 

There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago. 

The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been. 

I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! 

4* Redskins/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE WEEK on Giants +

The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Giants right now. I'm showing close to 70% of the tickets are coming in on the Redskins and anytime you have around 70% or more on one side of an NFL game, you almost always want to be on the other side. 

While the losses keep piling up, the Giants have shown some flashes of late that they are on the right track. They only lost by 3 points at Atlanta last time out, which was their fourth loss this season by 7 or less. Washington is a decent team, but they got no business being a road favorite against a division rival. The last time the Redskins played on the road they got annihilated by the Saints 43-19. 

Giants have gone a solid 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS with Eli Manning as the starter at home against Washington. We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of the Redskins. Favorites off an upset win as a division home dog, who have a winning record and are playing a team with a losing record are a mere 5-23 (18%) ATS since 1983. Take New York! 

4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks

I like the value here with Seattle getting points against the Lions. The Seahawks have quietly won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss being a 2-point defeat to the Rams, where they should have won outright. A lot of people just threw this team under the bus after their 0-2 start and it's got them way undervalued here. 

Detroit on the other hand is getting way too much respect right now. The Lions have won 3 of 4 and have covered 5 in a row. I'm just not all that impressed with this team and with big division road games on deck against Minnesota and Chicago, I think they have a hard time getting up for this one. 

Not only do I think Seattle is the better team, but the Seahawks have a massive edge in rest coming off of their bye week. Seattle has covered 12 of their last 16 vs strong offensive teams like the Lions, who averaged 375 or more yards/game. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after rushing for 150 or more yards in 2 straight games. Lions are just 7-19-2 in their last 28 off a game where they scored 30 or more and 4-13 ATS off a double-digit road win. Take Seattle! 

5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +

I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium. 

Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here."

Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6. 

Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville! 

3* NCAAF Prime Time ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Tennessee +

I really like this spot with the Volunteers getting more than a touchdown against South Carolina. Last time out Tennessee got annihilated by Alabama 58-21, failing to cover as a massive 29-point dog. The thing is, prior to that we saw this team upset Auburn 30-24 on the road in easily the biggest win for first year head coach Jeremy Pruitt. 

I just think that this team really gained a lot of confidence from that win over Auburn and will be eager to get back on the field after getting annihilated by the Crimson Tide. Keep in mind that Tennessee has played a brutal schedule. Five of their first seven opponents have been West Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Auburn and Alabama. 

South Carolina is a quality team, but I think they are more in the class of like Auburn than they are the elite SEC teams, such as LSU, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. The Vols aren't just capable of keeping it close enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright. 

They have covered 30 of their last 45 road games in the month of October and are an impressive 32-16 in their last 48 off a SU loss and 16-5 in their last 21 road games off a conference loss by 10 or more. Take Tennessee! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on San Jose State -

The simple fact that San Jose State is favored to win this game is really all you need to know to why this is the right side. The Spartans haven't won a game (0-7), yet are laying points to a UNLV team that has a couple of wins under their resume.  

I just think this is the ideal spot to jump on San Jose State. This team is going to put everything they have into winning this game, as it's arguably their last realistic shot at win this season. They only have 4 more to play and 3 of those are on the road and the lone home game is against Fresno State. 

UNLV is definitely a team they can not just beat, but win going away against. The Rebels only two wins are against UTEP, who might be the worst FBS program in the country and FCS foe Prairie View. San Jose State has also been close in several games, as 3 of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less and they just lost by a mere 3-points at San Diego State as a 25-point dog. 

Rebels are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 4-15 in their last 19 on the road when the team they are playing has won fewer than 25% of their games, losing outright by more than 10 points/game. Take San Jose State! 

3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +

This is just too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats. Kentucky has failed to cover their last two games and were a big disappointment to a lot of people in last week's mere 14-7 win over Vanderbilt at home. I think it has them way undervalued here against a Missouri team that I feel lis getting way too much respect. 

The Tigers come in off an impressive 65-33 win over Memphis, but it just feels like more of the same, where Missouri rolls the teams it's suppose to beat and struggles against the better opponents they play. We saw this team manage just 10 points the previous week against Alabama and this Kentucky defense is no joke.

The Wildcats are 12th in the country, giving up just 302 ypg. They are 17th against the run, giving up just 112 ypg and are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry against teams that average 4.9. Everyone thinks of Missouri as this pass-happy team, but they are averaging 42 rush attempts and 200 yards/game on the ground. When they struggle to run the football, the offense struggles to score. 

Not only do I think Kentucky can slow down the Tigers offense, but this Missouri defense is one that a limited Wildcats offense can have success against. Tigers rank 92nd in the country, giving up 419 ypg. The passing game is the biggest weakness for Kentucky, but they should have success thru the air agains this Missouri secondary, which ranks 122nd, allowing 287.4 ypg. 

Wildcats not only have the ability to keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Take Kentucky! 

3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE  on USC -

I think we are getting a great price here on USC as a small home favorite against the Sun Devils. The Trojans have a disappointing 4-3 record based on their standards, but it's really not a surprise given how young they are on the offensive side of the ball and the schedule they have had to play. 

USC's 3 losses have all come on the road against teams who are currently ranked inside the Top 25 in Texas (6), Stanford (24) and Utah (23). They are a perfect 3-0 at home, which includes impressive wins over Colorado and Washington State. 

This Arizona State team is better than I think people expected in year one under Herm Edwards, but they have lost 4 of their last 5 and the offense continues to struggle to produce at a high enough level to win games against good teams. They only managed 13-points at home last time out in a loss to Stanford and have scored 21 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. 

The big concern here with USC is that starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play because of a concussion. I think that's definitely helping the number here, but I don't think the injury really makes a huge impact on the outcome of this game.

Jack Sears will start if Daniels can't go and while he's not attempted a pass at the college level, he was highly touted out of high school and has been with the program for two years. I think the offense will be able to score more than enough to win this by at least a touchdown. Take USC! 

3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -

The Nittany Lions should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown at home against Iowa. Penn State's hopes of making the 4-team playoff and winning the Big Ten East are likely shot, but I don't see this team throwing in the towel the rest of the way. 

I think their big flat spot was last week at Indiana. They definitely didn't play their best, but still managed to sneak out a 33-28 road win. I think we see a much more focused Nittany Lions team when they host nationally ranked Iowa. Keep in mind they are still looking for their first win at home in Big Ten play, which is definitely a big motivator here. 

Iowa has looked impressive in their 6-1 start, but the schedule has definitely been favorable for the Hawkeyes. They have only played 2 road games and those were against Minnesota and Indiana. They lost their big step up game at home against Wisconsin and I just don't think the offense will be able to keep pace with Trace McSorely and the Nittany Lions attack. 

Note that two years ago, Iowa was a mere 6-point dog at Penn State and got annihilated 41-14. I don't think it will be that big of a blowout, but all we need is for them to win by 6. Nittany Lions are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 off a conference win and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference win. Take Penn State! 

4* Clemson/Florida St ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +

Clemson comes in off that impressive 41-7 win at home over previously undefeated NC State, easily covering as a 18.5-point favorite. I think that result has the Tigers way overvalued here against their rivals from the Atlantic, especially on the road. 

Florida State has been one of the most disappointing teams of 2018, but there's no question that the Seminoles have some of the best talent in the country. We saw them nearly upset Miami on the road a couple weeks back and I think they are going to give Clemson all they can handle, in what to them has to feel like their Super Bowl. 

The Tigers have won the last 3, but the largest margin of victory was 17 in last year's matchup. However, that was a much closer game than the final score indicates, as Clemson only led 17-14 in the 4th quarter. 

Note that the Tigers are just 14-29 ATS when they go into a game off 3 or more consecutive conference wins, as the books only inflate the numbers more off a victory. 

We also find a strong system in play, as road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who are outgaining opponents by 125+ yards/game are just 17-48 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off back-to-back games where they had 525 or more total yards. Take Florida State! 

5* Wyoming/Colorado St MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State -

Colorado State is going to have no problem at all covering this small spread at home against Wyoming on Friday night. The Cowboys are just 1-6 since that 29-7 win at New Mexico State to open the season back in August. 

They have lost 4 straight and are off a close home loss to Utah State as a 13-point dog. Covering against the Aggies looks great, but this team has no business being basically a pick'em on the road with that offense. 

Wyoming is 129th in the country, averaging a mere 15.5 ppg. They are 88th in rushing (150.1 ypg) and 122nd in passing (138.3 ypg). They only scored 13 points against Hawaii and a mere 17 against Wofford. They haven't scored more than 20 in 7 straight games.

The defense is good for Wyoming, but I look for them to struggle here on the road against a capable Colorado State offense, especially playing on short rest off that physical game against Utah State. Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Take Colorado State! 

4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +

Love the value here with the Golden Gophers as a home dog against Indiana. I'lll gladly take the points here, but I fully expect Minnesota to win this game outright. 

We are seeing the Hoosiers get way too much respect from their near upset of Penn State this past Saturday. That was the ultimate get up spot for Indiana at home against a ranked opponent, while I think the Nittany Lions were still reeling a bit from back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, which all but knocked them out of the playoff picture. Indiana head coach Tom Allen said it best, "Just a gut-wrenching loss four our team today. I thought our kids played their hearts out."

This is a massive letdown spot for the Hoosiers and they will be going up against a hungry Gophers team that just lost their 4th straight. The thing is, 3 of those came on the road and the other was a home game against a good Iowa team. I like head coach P.J. Fleck and I'm confident he will have Minnesota ready to play at home in prime time. 

Hoosiers not a great team to back in this spot, as they have failed to cover 7 of their last 8 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. I wouldn't be shocked at all of the Gophers won this game going away. Take Minnesota! 

4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Bears +

The books are begging the public to take the Patriots here as a short road favorite, but my money is on the Bears to cover the number at home, as I look for Chicago to win this game outright. New England comes in off that impressive 43-40 shootout win at home over the Chiefs and have won 3 straight overall, but those last 3 have all come against soft defensive teams in Miami, Indy and KC. 

Chicago isn't just a good defensive team, they are one of the best in the NFL. The Bears are 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 19.2 ppg and 10th in total defense, allowing a mere 344 yards/game. We saw the Tom Brady and the Patriots offense really struggle against a physical Jaguars defense on the road earlier this season. With Gronk not going to be available, I think it's going to be really hard on New England to move the ball. 

While the Bears offense has been limited at times, they are coming off two really strong performances. They had 48 points and nearly 500 total yards of offense at home agains the Bucs and 28 points and 467 yards at Miami last week. Patriots defense has plenty of holes for Trubisky and that Bears offense to exploit, as NE is allowing 28.5 ppg and 447 ypg on the road this season.

Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Jags - 

This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. 

The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston. 

I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team. 

I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville! 

3* NCAAF SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -

I think we are getting a great price here on the Wildcats laying less than two touchdowns at home against the Commodores. Vandy was able to put up a decent fight last week at home against Florida, but I think that was more of a result of the Gators not being 100% invested from the start.

Definitely a tough spot for Florida off that huge home win over LSU and knowing they had their bye week on deck before the massive showdown with Georgia. The Gators let the Commodores get out to a 21-3 lead and from that point on they were a different team and outscored Vanderbilt 34-6 and wound up outgaining them 576 to 336. 

I don't see Kentucky sleep-walking into this one. The Wildcats are coming off a bye and my bet is this team can't wait to get back on the field after suffering their first loss of the season at Texas A&M in overtime. I just think that Kentucky's defense will be able to completely shutdown the Commodores offense and Benny Snell and that Wildcats offense will be able to have their way, as Vanderbilt comes in ranked 94th in the country against the run, giving up 183.3 ypg. This one has blowout written all over it. Take Kentucky! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State -

Game Day is headed to Pullman for the first time and it's going to be nuts at Martin Stadium Saturday night when the No. 25 Cougars host No. 12 Oregon. I think that atmosphere combined with how great a spot this is for Washington State and how tough a spot this is for the Ducks, really gives the Cougars the upper hand. 

Washington State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon has to be running on fumes after their overtime win against No. 7 Washington. I know the Cougars haven't played some of the top teams in the country, but they have an impressive win at home over a really good Utah team and more than held their own on the road against USC in a prime time game. 

Offensively, both teams can put up point sin a hurry, as both come in averaging over 40 ppg and 480 ypg. Both teams are also strong defensively, though I would definitely give the edge to the Cougars playing at home and having had those two full weeks of practice to prepare for this Ducks' offensive attack. 

Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 2 or more games in a row and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Washington State! 

4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Memphis +

I think we would be seeing a lot different line here had Memphis not squandered that game against UCF last week. Memphis led 20-7 early and 30-17 at the half, somehow managed to go scoreless over the final 2 periods in a 31-30 loss. 

That does bring into some concern of a letdown after a crushing loss like that, but I think getting a chance to take on a SEC team will have Memphis 100% ready to go. On the flip side of this, I think Missouri could have a hard time getting up for this game off their game against No. 1 Alabama. Especially with the likes of Kentucky and Florida next up on the schedule. 

I also think that even if Missouri came to play, they would have a tough time putting away this Memphis team by double-digits. Memphis has a potent offense that comes in averaging 43.9 ppg and 539 ypg. Missouri is giving up 30.5 ppg and 6.2 yards/play. 

It's also worth noting that Memphis is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 off a conference loss by 3 points or less, while Missouri falls into a horrible situation. Home favorites, who are averaging 31+ ppg are just 60-111 (35%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a loss by 17 or more. Take Memphis! 

4* NCAAF Big Favorite PLAY OF THE WEEK Clemson -

A lot of people are going to look at this line and want to grab the points with NC State. Hard to blame them, as the Wolfpack come in 5-0 and ranked No. 16 in the country. If history repeats itself like it has in the past, you are going to want to load up on the Tigers. The last 8 times a team has entered a game at 5-0 and been more than 14-point road dog, the home favorite has covered every single time. 

I know the Wolfpack have a decent quarterback in Ryan Finley, but I just don't think this NC State team is as good as people think. They lost a lot from last year's team and have had a pretty easy schedule to this point with their toughest games being home matchups against Virginia and Boston College. 

Last time out Clemson annihilated Wake Forest 63-3.  I just think this Tigers team is better than what they have shown to this point and that blowout win over the Demon Deacons is the start of something special. Trevor Lawrence is getting more and more comfortable in the offense and this Clemson defense is loaded with NFL talent. They haven't played their best and yet are 8th in the country in total offense (531 ypg) and 3rd in total defense (261.1 ypg). 

I love elite teams, especially at home, in big time matchups and I think they are going to make quite the statement in a blowout win on Saturday. Bet Clemson! 

4* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +

Love the value here with the Demon Deacons as a double-digit underdog against the Seminoles. I think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with Wake Forest losing 63-3 last time out at home to Clemson and Florida State barely missing out on an upset win at Miami as a 14.5-point dog. 

Both teams have had extra time to prepare off a bye, but there's only one team I trust to show up and that's Wake Forest. It doesn't matter how bad a year FSU is having, the bottom teams in this league are going to get up to play them. You can almost always count on a team coming out with a big time effort after getting embarrassed the way the Demon Deacons did in that loss to the Tigers. 

Speaking of Clemson, they are a big reason why I don't trust the Seminoles in this spot. Florida State hosts the Tigers next week and there's not a game outside of maybe Florida in their finale that they want to win more than that game. Not to mention their practice routine has been out of whack with hurricane that hit home. I not only think they don't cover, but I could easily see the Demon Deacons winning this game outright. Take Wake Forest! 

4* Broncos/Cardinals TNF NO-BRAINER on Cardinals +

I think the books have the wrong team favored on Thursday Night Football. I just think the perception here is that Denver is the better team, despite the fact that they have lost 4 straight. I'm just not buying it. The Broncos defense isn't what it use to be and Case Keenum isn't playing anywhere close to how he played last year with the Vikings. 

Arizona is a bad team and will likely be picking very early in next year's draft, but this is a game they know they can win and I expect them to show up in a big way at home in prime time. Let's not forget how big an advantage it is to play at home in these Thursday Night games. The home team is 5-1 thru the first 6 Thursday Night games. 

Josh Rosen has shown some flashes and with how bad the Broncos run defense has been, I look for David Johnson to have a big day and that's only going to open up things for Rosen. I also love that Von Miller has guaranteed a win for Denver, as that's only going to light the fire even more for the Cardinals. Take Arizona! 

4* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Broncos +

The Rams are once again being way overvalued by the books on the road. Last week Los Angeles was a 7-point road favorite at Seattle and were fortunate to leave with a 33-31 win, as they went into the 4th quarter trailing 31-24. 

Given all the hype around this team, they are going to keep getting max efforts from their opponents, as everyone wants to be the one to give them that first loss. Denver not only wants to be the Rams, but they desperately need a win after losing 3 straight. 

The Broncos should have beat the Chiefs at home a few weeks back. It took some ridiculous play by Mahomes in the 4th quarter for KC to escape with a win. I think Denver has a really good shot here of not just covering, but winning this game outright. 

The Rams are use to the nice weather in LA and it could be a challenge for them in this one, as temps are expected to be well below freezing at kickoff. 

Broncos are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against elite teams like the Rams, who are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and have won these contests by almost 10 points/game (27.8 - 18.4). Take Denver! 

3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Browns +

After going 0-16 last year, the Browns came into this season way undervalued and that's evident by the fact that they are sitting at 4-1 ATS through their first 5 games. I love how this team bounced back from that crushing loss at Oakland with a 12-9 win over division rival Baltimore last week. 

This team is still getting no respect, as they are basically a pick'em at home against a Chargers team that hasn't been all that impressive. LA is 3-2, but their 3 wins have come against the Bills, 49ers (without Garoppolo) and Raiders. In their two big step up games against the Chiefs and Rams, they lost by double-digits. 

It seems like every year the Chargers are hit hard with the injury bug and 2018 has been no different. The defense is still without not just their best player, but one of the elite defense players in the game in Joey Bosa. Linebackers Jatavis Brown and Kyzir White are both expected to miss this game with injuries. 

I look for Baker Mayfield and that rejuvenated Browns offense to have a lot of success in this one, while the underrated Cleveland defense makes life miserable for Rivers and the Chargers offense. 

LA won and covered in a 26-10 home win over the Raiders last week. That's worth noting, as the Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win by more than 14 points and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. Take Los Angels! 

4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -

I got no problem laying less than a touchdown with Ole Miss on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have gotten off to an awful start in the first year under Chad Morris. They won their opener against Eastern Illinois and have lost 5 straight since.

That includes a loss 7-point loss at Colorado St as a 14-point favorite, a 27-point loss at home to North Texas as a 5-point favorite and 34-3 defeat to an Auburn team that has struggled. They have covered their last 2 against Texas A&M and Alabama, but were fortunate to do so. They were a 19-point dog to the Aggies and trailed 17-0 before Texas A&M took their foot off the gas. Last week they were a 34.5-point dog to Alabama and lost by 34 thanks to a late touchdown with just 13 seconds on the clock. 

It's been bad on both sides of the ball, as the Razorbacks own the 103rd ranked offense (358.1 ypg) and are 91st in rushing and 92nd in passing. They have the 110th ranked pass defense, giving up 271.3 ypg. 

Ole Miss is simply too talented. The Rebels only two losses are against two of the best teams in the conference in LSU and Alabama. They have taken care of everyone else, including a 20-point win over what looks to be a good Texas Tech team. 

I mentioned how bad Arkansas was against the pass. Ole Miss has the 5th best passing attack in the country at 347.5 ypg. Look for the Rebels to score at will and while their defense is bad, it can make enough stops to pull away. Take Ole Miss! 

4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Missouri +

After starting out the year a perfect 3-0 ATS, Alabama has failed to cover 3 straight. The thing is they have been so close to covering the last 3, the public isn't backing down and we continue to get unbelievable value fading the Crimson Tide. 

There's no question that Alabama will win this game at home, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win by more than 4 touchdowns against this Missouri team. The Tigers have the 9th ranked offense in the country, averaging 530 ypg. The have the 15th ranked passing attack (318.4 ypg) behind future NFL signal caller Drew Lock. 

You have to be able to threaten Alabama vertically to have any success against them, as they are just too strong up front to ground and pound. The high-powered passing attack is also what you want for the backdoor cover. Note the Crimson Tide have made a habit of letting teams score late. 

The other big key here is we have already seen Missouri hang with Georgia, only losing by 14 points. They also were outgained by just 52 yards and had a 26 to 18 edge in first downs over the Bulldogs. 

Tigers are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record and have covered 10 of their last 14 overall. Crimson Tide are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last conference games. Take Missouri! 

5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +

Penn State is getting way too much respect here at home against a good Michigan State team. The Spartans are 3-2 with a couple of close losses. They have to feel like they should be 5-0 and with them off that ugly loss at home to Northwestern, they are going to be 100% locked in for this one. 

I don't know that the same can be said for the Nittany Lions. Even off a bye week, I think we could see Penn State a bit flat off that devastating loss to Ohio State. That was a game they felt they had to win if they wanted to win the Big Ten East and make the playoffs. If they are still down from that lost, they won't just not cover, but they might lose the game outright. 

It's a very similar spot to last year. Penn State was 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country before losing to the Buckeyes. The very next week they lost 27-24 at Michigan State. Spartans have won 3 of 4 over the Nittany Lions since James Franklin arrived at State College. 

I also like the matchup here. Penn State has a great quarterback in Trace McSorley, but that offense is built on the ground game. Only once all season have the Nittany Lions thrown for more than 300 yards and that was against Kent State.

They will likely have no choice but to throw it in this one, as the Spartans lead the nation in run defense, giving up just 33.8 ypg. Not a single team has rushed for more than 63 yards against them. Last week they held Northwestern to 8-yards on 20 attempts. That run defense was also a big part of their win last year over Penn State, as they held Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions to just 48 yards on 27 attempts. 

Hard to pass up on a double-digit dog that has a realistic shot of winning the game outright. Plus, Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games off a home loss. Take Michigan State! 

3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Carolina +

Coming off a win at home over No. 13 Kentucky, I think we are seeing the Aggies get a little too much love on the road against a good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks rallied to beat Missouri 37-35 at home last week, but are still searching for that signature win. 

It's actually a very similar spot to what we saw last week with Texas A&M. Except we get even more motivation here from South Carolina as a home dog. 

This is also a good Gamecocks team. There only two losses were at home to Georgia and on the road to Kentucky. Texas A&M has played just one road game all season and that was at Alabama. While they covered the spread, it was no contest, as the Crimson Tide had a 31-13 lead at the half and 45-16 advantage going into the 4th quarter. 

I also like the matchup. Aggies defense is outstanding against the run, but are a mere 97th in the country vs the pass (244.8 ypg). Gamecocks have the 48th ranked passing offense (255.8 ypg). As for the defense, Muschamp knows Fisher's schemes well from when both were coordinators under Saban at LSU. They also get the benefit of feeding off the home crowd. I'll take the points but I expect the home team to win outright. Take South Carolina! 

3* NCAAF Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington -

I just don't see Washington losing to the Ducks, making this an easy play for me with the Huskies at such a low price. I think the fact that Oregon should have beat Stanford at home a couple weeks back (blew a 24-7 halftime lead) and are off a bye, is what's keeping this number lower than it should be. 

By no means do I think the Ducks aren't any good, I just believe that Washington is a step above the entire Pac-12 conference. While they only beat Arizona St by 7, they were without a question the better team. They kept the Sun Devils in it with short fields and were still up 14 with less than 3 minutes to play. Also, don't be fooled by the mere 7-point win at UCLA. Washington simply took their foot off the gas after building a 24-7 halftime lead, which says a lot about how much they are looking forward to this game. 

Justin Herbert might be the best quarterback not everyone knows about, but he's going to be up against an elite Huskies defense that specializes in defending the pass (17th, 174.7 ypg). It's going to be a lot easier on Washington quarterback Jake Browning, as he faces an Oregon secondary that ranks 89th vs the pass (238.2 ypg) and haven't exactly played a lot of great teams. They opened with Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose St, all at home. 

With the offense figuring to be able to move the ball and a defense that is built to play well on the road, I just don't see the Ducks having enough in them to keep this within a touchdown. Take Washington! 

5* S. Florida/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +

The Golden Hurricane come into this game at 1-4 and have lost 4 straight, but are a much better team than their record would suggest. Tulsa has played an absolutely brutal schedule early, as 3 of their first 5 games have come on the road against Texas, Temple and Houston. 

They covered last week as a 17-point dog at Houston, but could have easily won that game outright. The Golden Hurricane has a 26-17 lead in the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control. In their 14-point loss to Temple the week before, they outgained the Owls 403 to 300 and had a 32 to 16 edge in first downs. They also lost by just 7 on the road against a very good Texas team. 

I'll absolutely take a shot here with Tulsa catching over a touchdown at home against what I think is a very overrated South Florida team. The Bulls are 5-0 and ranked No. 23 in the country, but have played a very easy schedule with their two toughest games coming against Power 5 bottom feeders Georgia Tech and Illinois. 

If the Golden Hurricane can just simply cut down on their mistakes, they are going to have a great shot here of winning this game outright. Tulsa has 16 turnovers in 5 games and simply can't continue to get that unlucky with turnovers going forward. 

Golden Hurricane are a dominant 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they allowed 40+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record. USF on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Tulsa! 

5* Eagles/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +

The Eagles continue to get way too much respect from the books after last year's Super Bowl win. Philadelphia was expected to defend their title, but they haven't even looked like a playoff team to this point. The Eagles are 2-3 with their only wins at home against the Falcons and Colts and they could have easily lost both of those games, as both Atlanta and Indy had the ball deep in Eagles territory with a chance to take the lead late. 

The two biggest problems for Philadelphia have been the injuries that have piled up on the offensive side of the ball and the defense not playing anywhere close to as well as it did a season ago. Carson Wentz is just fine, but the supporting cast is really limited with the likes of Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace all sidelined. 

The Giants are sitting at 1-4 and have been a big disappointment, but they are coming off their best performance of the season in a mere 2-point loss at Carolina. The offense put up 31 points on a good Panthers defense, who were off a bye and I think they finally got something going on that side of the ball. I look for the G-men to deliver in what feels like a must-win game. Take New York! 

3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas State +

There's no question that Georgia Southern is greatly improved over the team that went just 2-10 last year, but they simply overvalued here on the road against the Bobcats. The inflated line comes from the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS, while Texas State has only covered one game in their first 5. 

Georgia Southern runs the option offense and while they have put up some big numbers, when you run the football as much as they do, it really limits the number of possessions. That makes the big number we are getting that much more valuable. As is the case with a lot of option teams, they aren't great at defending the pass and I look for Texas State to make enough big plays through the air to keep this one respectable. 

Playing at home is also a huge advantage here for the Bobcats, as it's really tough to play on short rest away from home. Georgia Southern has also struggled on the road against bad teams, as they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Texas State! 

3* App St/Ark St Sun Belt PLAY OF THE WEEK on App State -

I got no problem laying the big number here with the Mountaineers on the road. A lot of people will be drawn to Arkansas State as big home dog in this weekday matchup. The Red Wolves were picked to win the Sun Belt West by a lot of experts and senior quarterback Justice Hansen was a big reason why. 

The problem here is that Hansen is going to be asked to do too much against a top notch Appalachian State defense, as I just don't see the Red Wolves stop unit being able to slow down this high-powered Mountaineers attack. App State put up 38 points on Penn State in their opener and have scored no fewer than 45 in 3 straight wins. They are scoring almost 10 ppg more than what their opponents are giving up and will be facing a Red Wolves defense that is allowing 29.2 ppg. 

Look for the Mountaineers to be able to do whatever they want offensively, as they should be in great down and distances all game. App State has rushed for 780 yards in their last 2 games and are averaging 269 ypg and 6.5 yards/carry. Red Wolves are giving up 245 ypg and allowing 5.7 yards/carry against the run. Take Appalachian State! 

4* Redskins/Saints MNF NO-BRAINER on Redskins +

The Saints are way over-valued here at home agains the Redskins on Monday Night Football. With how much the public loves to bet MNF and the Saints, no surprise to see New Orleans over-priced at home. I know the Saints are sitting at 3-1, but they could easily be 1-3. They should have lost at home to the Browns in Week 2 and were fortunate to leave Atlanta with a 43-37 overtime win in Week 3. 

While New Orleans is getting way too much love, the Redskins are flying under the radar right now. Washington comes in at 2-1 in the first year with Alex Smith at quarterback. Smith has changed the dynamic of the offense, as it's much more balanced and less turnover-proned. 

What really stands out to me is just how good this Redskins defense is playing to start the new season. Washington ranks 7th against the run and 3rd against the pass, as they come in allowing just 278 yards/game. We saw a good Cleveland defense going into New Orleans and really shutdown Brees and that Saints high-powered attack and I expect the Saints to struggle here. 

Not only will they have a hard time moving the ball against this Redskins defense, but Smith and that Washington offense are going to look for long drives that eat up clock and keep Brees on the sidelines. Something they should be able to do with how poorly the Saints defense has played. 

The other big key here that I think is getting completely overlooked, is the fact that Washington is coming off a bye. Bye weeks are huge in the NFL and I think with the extra time to prepare and get guys healthy, the Redskins could win this one outright. Take Washington! 

3* Ravens/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE DAY  on Browns +

Public is going to be all over Baltimore as a short road favorite, but this is not the time to back the Ravens. Baltimore is off an impressive win at Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football and are sitting strong going into Week 5 at 3-1, but it's a lot tougher than people realize to win back-to-back on the road, especially against division opponents. 

Cleveland was a questionable call away from a win over the Raiders last week and I really like what I've seen out of rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. This is a legit Browns offense with him under center and while the defense struggled last week on the west coast, I expect them to return to form at home. This is not an elite Baltimore offense by any stretch. 

Ravens defense has been great the last two weeks, holding both the Broncos and Steelers to just 14 points. However, that sets a very profitable spot to fade Baltimore. Road teams that are outscoring teams by 10+ ppg are just 9-32 (22%) ATS after holding two straight teams to 14 or fewer points. Take Cleveland!