Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110

I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42). 

The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over. 

Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay! 

3* NCAAF - Army/Hawaii BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Hawaii -2 -105

I think the public perception here is that because the Rainbow Warriors have already locked up a spot in the MWC title game next week, they aren't going to show up for this one. I just don't think that's the case. With a win the Rainbow Warriors would improve to 9-4 and that means they would have two shots to get to that elusive 10-win mark. 

As for Army, this has been a season to forget, as the Black Knights have come nowhere close to meeting expectations. Army has won their last two, but against two awful teams in UMass and VMI. Their other 3 wins are against Rice, UTSA and Morgan State. They just aren't very good. 

This is also a horrible matchup for the Knights, as they are not good at defending the pass, especially teams like Hawaii that can really stretch the field with their air attack. Look for the Warriors to score at will and cruise to an easy win and cover. Take Hawaii! 

3* NCAAF - Texas A&M/LSU Prime Time ATS DESTROYER on LSU -16½ -110

I got no problem here laying the points with the Tigers at home against the Aggies. LSU is 100% locked in right now. Even with a spot in next week's SEC title game locked up, I don't think it's going to stop them from winning here by 20+ on senior day, especially with this being a night game. 

Texas A&M is better than they get credit for, as they have played a brutal schedule, but they still are now match for the Tigers. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for them coming off that emotional game at Georgia last week. 

Aggies are just 4-17 ATS last 21 on the road with a total of 63 or more and 12-28 ATS last 40 on the road vs teams who are outscoring opponents by 17+ ppg.

History is also on our side. Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with an experienced QB back as their starter are 51-19 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if they come in having outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more total yards. Take LSU! 

4* NCAAF - UNC/NC State ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on North Carolina -10 -110

Easy play here for me on the Tar Heels winning by more than 10 at rival NC State. No question the Wolfpack will play hard here against their in-state rivals, but they just don't have enough talent or healthy bodies to make a game of it. 

NC State has been on a complete free fall, as they enter having lost 5 straight, including a heartbreaker 26-28 setback at Georgia Tech in their most recent game to put to bed any hopes of getting to a bowl. UNC has been better than expected in the first year under Mac Brown, but they still need one more win to get bowl eligible. 

All 6 of the Tar Heels' losses this season have come by 7-points or less, 3 of those decided by a field goal or less, including a mere 1-point loss at home to Clemson. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents and UNC has outgained those 3 teams by 3 ppg, while NC State has been outscored by 27.0 ppg. 

Wolfpack are 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog and have lost in this spot by a ridiculous 30.6 ppg. Take North Carolina! 

4* NCAAF - ND/Stanford Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame -16 -110

The Fighting Irish are worth a look here as a big road favorite against the Cardinal. Notre Dame has really responded well to that ugly loss to Michigan, as they have rattled off 4 straight wins. Each of the last 3 have come in blowout fashion. They crushed Duke 38-7 as a 7-point road favorite, rolled Navy 52-20 as a 7.5-point home favorite and destroyed BC 40-7 as a 20.5-point favorite. 

Irish are clearly okay with going to a New Year's Day bowl and they can pretty much lock up a spot with a win here. Stanford on the other hand has lost 3 straight and failed to cover all 3. The most recent being a 20-24 home loss to rival Cal, which marked their 7th loss of the season and put to rest any hopes of getting to a bowl game. 

With K.J. Costello expected to miss this game, I just don't know how the Cardinal offense is going to be able to score enough to keep this close. Their defense has given up 31 or more in 3 of their last 5 and this Irish offense is one of the best in the country averaging 36.4 ppg, scoring almost 10 points more than what their opponents allow. 

ND is 23-10 ATS last 33 vs bad defensive teams that are allowing 425 or more yards/game and 5-1-1 ATS last 7 road games vs a team with a losing record. Cardinal are just 2-8 ATS last 10 overall and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a loss. Take Notre Dame! 

5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Purdue +7 -115

I love the value here with the Boilermakers catching a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. I think the fact that Purdue is sitting at 4-7 and can't get to a bowl has people thinking they won't show up. I don't think that will be the case at all. If anything it just continues a run here of the Boilermakers being undervalued, as they have covered 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. 

Indiana's already got 7-wins, so they are just playing to get to a slightly better bowl, but I also think they could be out of gas here after playing their last two games against big time opponents in Penn State and Michigan. 

Hoosiers defense struggled against both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines. Road teams who are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg are just 45-87 (34%) ATS after allowing 31 or more in 2 straight over the last 10 seasons. Boilermakers are also a dominant 13-4 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Take Purdue! 

4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Boise State -13½ -110

I think we are getting a bit of a discount here on Boise State, as the perception here is that the Broncos won't be 100% motivated given they have already locked up the MWC Mountain Division and spot in next week's MWC title game against Hawaii. 

I'm just not buying it. Boise State is trying to make a New Year's Six Bowl and they can also do something they have never done before in MWC play, that's finish the season with an undefeated record in league play. 

If there's any team that's going to be lacking motivation it's Colorado State. I could have seen the Rams getting up for this one if Boise needed to win to make the title game, but that's not the case. There's also no hopes for an upset to get to a bowl, as they suffered their 7th loss of the season last week in a hard fought 17-7 loss at Wyoming. 

Broncos have not taken it easy on bad teams. They are 7-1-2 ATS last 10 vs a team with a losing record, including 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing home record. Take Boise State! 

5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -4½ -109

I cashed in on Nebraska last week at Maryland and the Cornhuskers didn't disappoint, as they took out a season worth of frustration in a 54-7 victory over the Terps. However, that win doesn't change the outlook on this Nebraska team and I'll gladly back a much better Iowa team laying less than a touchdown on Friday. 

Hawkeyes have owned the Cornhuskers of late with 4 straight wins against their rivals. I'm confident they make it 5 in a row, as I think the conditions for this game will heavily favor Iowa. It's going to be miserable with rain expected throughout. That's going to allow the Hawkeyes to focus that much more on a one-dimensional Nebraska offense. 

As for the Cornhuskers defense, don't be fooled by their big effort against Maryland. Prior to holding the Terps to a mere 7-points they had allowed 30+ in 4 straight games and even Maryland was able to run for 149 against them. Iowa should control both sides of the ball and win here easily. 

Hawkeyes are 20-7 ATS last 27 as a road favorite of 7 or less, while the Cornhuskers are a mere 4-15 ATS last 19 at home and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a home dog. 

3* NFL - Saints/Falcons ATS DESTROYER on Falcons +7 -110

I really like the value here with the Falcons. Atlanta laid an egg last week at home against the Bucs after two dominating performances on the road against the Saints and Panthers. Everyone was against the Falcons in those two upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina. Most of those same people jumped on them last week against Tampa Bay and now want absolutely nothing to do with them after getting burned. 

I know the playoffs are no longer a realistic goal for Atlanta, but there's no doubt in my mind they will show up for this game with it being a prime time matchup on their home turf. It doesn't matter how bad they are, the Falcons always lay it all on the line against the Saints. 

You also just can't ignore what this Atlanta team was able to do just a few weeks ago when these two met up in New Orleans. They won convincingly 26-9 and held that high-powered Saints offense out of the endzone. I definitely could see NO offense struggling again, as they will be playing here without starting left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat. Armstead was a 2nd-Team All-Pro and Peat is a Pro Bowler. 

I'm not saying the Saints won't get their revenge and win the game, but I expect a closely contested matchup that goes right down to the wire, making the Falcons an easy play at this price. Take Atlanta! 

5* NFL - Bears/Lions NFC North PLAY OF THE YEAR on Bears -3 +100

I love the value here with Chicago laying just a field goal at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. As ugly as it's been for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, this is just too good a price to pass up. The Lions are on a free fall having lost 7 of 8. When you lose to Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins you know it's not good. 

Matthew Stafford is still a no go for Detroit and while Jeff Driskel will play, he's going to be at less than 100% after tweaking his hamstring against the Lions. You take away his mobility and you really make it tough on him against an elite Bears defense. 

I don't know that Trubisky can be saved from what we have seen, but he is coming off one of his better games against the Giants and did throw 3 touchdowns against this Detroit defense back in Week 10. 

One thing the Bears have done well is cover the number against their NFC North counterparts. Chicago is 9-1 ATS last 10 games vs division opponents. They have also covered 11 of their last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Detroit is just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home, 2-6 ATS last 8 vs a division foe and 0-6 ATS last 6 overall. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110

I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers. 

I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams. 

It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you. 

Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cowboys +6 -115

The Cowboys are definitely worth a look here as a near touchdown dog against the Patriots. New England was able to bounce back from that ugly loss to the Ravens with a 17-10 win at Philly last week, but that was not the kind of performance you would expect to see out of the Pats coming off their bye. 

The defense was sensational after a slow start, but the offense was far from impressive. Tom Brady is going to play, but he doesn't look 100%. They also got a lot of skill players and offensive linemen banged up right now. Dallas has the guys on defense to keep them in check. 

I also think Cowboys offense is the kind of offense that can have success against this Patriots defense. New England is built more to stop the pass than they are the run. I think Dallas can move the ball behind Zeke and keep this within one-score all the way. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 75% or more of their games and come in having won 6/7 of their last 8 games are just 10-29 in the 2nd half of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 74% system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Dallas! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Broncos +4 +100

I like the value here with Denver getting more than a field goal against the Bills on Sunday. I just feel these are two teams with very misleading records. The Broncos are no where close to as bad as their 3-7 record would suggest. We saw that in last week's near upset of the Vikings on the road. They have 5 losses by just 1 score. 

As for the Bills, they are not as good as their 7-3 record. Buffalo has simply played a cupcake schedule to get to this point. The Bills 7 wins are against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins (twice) and Redskins. Not a single one of those teams currently has a winning record and Tennessee (5-5) is the only one with more than 3 wins. 

Denver's offense isn't great, but it's looked a lot better without Joe Flacco in their Brandon Allen has played well and they don't need a great offense to win games, as they still have a top tier defense. With the limitations the Bills have on offense, I like the Broncos to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance. Take Denver! 

4* NFL - Early Bird ATS HEAVY HITTER on Raiders -3 -110

Oakland is definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point favorite against the Jets. For whatever reason this Raiders team just doesn't get the respect they deserve. If the season ended today, Oakland would be in as the final Wild Card and a win here puts them tied with the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC West. 

The Jets are simply getting too much love after a couple of wins against a couple of bad NFC East teams in the Giants and Redskins. New York wasn't a very talented team to start with and are dealing with all kinds of injuries right now. I think the fact Oakland didn't play well last week against Cincinnati is also playing into the number, but that was a bit of a misleading final as they outgained the Bengals by 140 yards. 

Jets are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 at home and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of November. Raiders aer 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Oakland! 

3* NFL - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +4 -110

I like the value here with Tampa Bay getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. I know Atlanta has looked better of late with back-to-back blowout wins on the road against the Saints and Panthers, but I think it has them overvalued here against a Bucs team that is going to keep fighting despite their struggles. 

Division games are often closer than expected and that's definitely been the case of late with these two teams. Each of the last 3 meetings in the series have been decided by 5 or fewer points. 

Atlanta has also not been good in this spot. Falcons are just 3-12 ATS last 15 at home off a win by 10 or more against a division rival, 4-14 ATS last 18 after two straight games allowing 14 or fewer points and 14-34 ATS last 48 at home off two straight covers. Take Tampa Bay! 

4* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State -8½ -110

Some might be hesitant to play this game because of the uncertainty with both starting quarterbacks. However, I feel there's value here with Boise State laying single digits. I just think the Broncos have the much better QB depth and there's a more likely chance that the Aggies star quarterback Jordan Love doesn't play. 

Thing is, even with Love I don't know that Utah State could keep this close. Boise State is one of the best Group of 5 teams out there and got a ton at stake in this one. A loss here would likely cost the Broncos the Mountain Division title and a spot in the MWC title game. 

I think you can really see the talent difference in this game by looking at how these two have performed against the 3 common opponents they have played. Boise State is outscoring these 3 teams by 3.7 ppg, while Utah is getting outscored by 15.6 ppg. Defense is where the Broncos were much better. They only gave up 21.3 ppg and 326.7 ypg against these 3 team, where Utah State allowed 31.3 ppg and 484.7 ypg. 

Broncos are 72-48 ATS (60%) ATS in their last 120 road games and are 7-3-2 ATS last 12 conference games and 8-0-1 ATS last 9 after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. Take Boise State! 

4* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Troy +14 -110

This is just too good a price to pass up with the Trojans and that high-powered offense. Troy comes into this game averaging 39.0 ppg and 478 ypg. Numbers that are even better in Sun Belt play, as they are scoring 43.3 ppg and putting up 505.5 ypg against conference opponents this season. 

I get Lafayette has a really good offense of their own and have the better defense on paper, but all signs here point to a back and forth shootout. One that I wouldn't be surprised at all if Troy won outright. We know we are going to get a big effort from the Trojans, as they still need a win to get bowl eligible and next week's game at home against App State is far from a sure thing. 

As for the Ragin' Cajuns, they are comfortably sitting at 5-1 and 1-game up on Arkansas State for the top spot in the West Division. Which is basically a 2-game lead given they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss here is not the end of the world. They showed signs of being a bit complacent last week, as they only beat South Alabama by 10 as a 28-point favorite and were outgained by the Jaguars 467 to 391. 

Troy is off a 63-27 blowout win at Texas State and prior to that beat a good Georgia Southern team 49-28 at home as a 2.5-point dog. Trojans are 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road after a win by 35 or more , 13-3 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 12-4-1 ATS last 17 conference games and 7-2 ATS last 9 in the month of November. Take Troy! 

5* NCAAF - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville -9 -110

Easy play for me on the Cardinals laying single-digits at home against the Orange. I just think we are getting a great price with Louisville due the fact that Syracuse finally showed some life in last week's 49-6 win as a 10.5-point road dog at Duke. That would be great if the Blue Devils were playing well, but Duke is on a free fall. Blue Devils have been outgained now by 100+ yards in 3 straight and have lost the yardage battle in 6 straight. 

Even though they won by a whopping 43-points, Syracuse only outgained the Blue Devils by 116. The only other two teams the Orange have won the yardage battle against all season are Holy Cross and Liberty. This is a team that got outgained by 250 yards to Maryland and 243 a couple weeks ago against BC. 

Louisville has one of the best offenses people don't know about. They are averaging 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg. What's impressive is it's come against opponents who on average are allowing just 25.1 ppg and 377 ypg. They should score at will here and while the defense isn't great, I think they easily win by two touchdowns. 

Orange are 2-11 ATS last 13 off an upset win by 14 or more points and have lost in this spot by an average of 20 ppg. Take Louisville! 

3* NCAAF - Big Money ATS MONEYMAKER on Nebraska -6 -110

The Cornhuskers are worth a look here laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Terps. Nebraska is simply showing value here because of how disappointing a season they have had and the fact that they enter having lost 4 straight. 

As bad as it's been for the Cornhuskers, it's been even worse for the Terps. Maryland just can't catch a break with the injury bug. They just don't have enough healthy good players to be competitive. The evidence is in the numbers. Terps are getting outgained by 221.2 yards/game in Big Ten play. Nebraska in comparison is only getting outgained by 12.4 yards/game. 

There's also a big motivational edge here with Nebraska still having an outside shot at bowl game if they can win out, while the Terps have no shot at a bowl and are struggling to just keep games close. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Cornhuskers won going away. Take Nebraska! 

4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss -3½ -110

I really like the value here with Southern Miss laying a short number at home against Western Kentucky. Not only do I think the Golden Eagles are the better team, they have a massive motivation edge in this one. 

Thanks to LA Tech having both their starting QB and top wide out suspended, Southern Miss has a legit shot at winning the West and playing in the C-USA championship Game. They do need the Bulldogs to lose at UAB, but they are still without those two suspended players and are a 7-point dog. However, the most important thing is winning this game, so we can expect a max effort. 

Western Kentucky is just 1-game back of first in the East, but trail both FAU and Marshall and lost both the head-to-head matchups against those two teams. They are already bowl eligible, so there's not much at stake. Not to mention they are poised for a letdown off that big upset win over Arkansas last time out. Take Southern Miss! 

4* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on South Alabama +10 -109

The Jaguars are worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Panthers. South Alabama is just 1-9 overall and have lost 8 straight, but that has not deterred this team from playing hard down the stretch. Just last week they only lost by 10 at Lafayette, who is tied with Appalachian State for the best record in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars easily covered as a 28-point dog and are now 5-1 ATS last 6 games. 

As for Georgia State, I think the Panthers could be in for a bit of a letdown here off last week's blowout loss at home to Appalachian State. That was a massive game for Georgia State, as they were in a position to where if they won that game and won out, they would have won the East and would be headed to the Sun Belt title game. Now they are simply playing for pride with a big rivalry game on deck against Georgia Southern. 

Panthers are just 2-9 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and have failed to cover 6 straight in Weeks 10 thru Week 13. They are also 0-7-1 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 4-12-2 ATS last 16 conference games. Jaguars are 7-1 ATS last 8 conference games. Take South Alabama! 

5* NCAAF - Ohio/BG MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ohio -20 -110

I like the Bobcats to cruise to a easy win and cover at Bowling Green Tuesday night. Ohio may have had their MAC title hopes crushed with back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Miami (OH) and Western Michigan, but there's still a ton to play for in these last two games, as the Bobcats need to win out to make a bowl. 

Ohio may have just 1 more win on the resume than the Falcons, but the talent gap between these two is really noticeable. While the Bobcats are just 3-3 in MAC play, they are outscoring teams by 2 ppg and outgaining them by 23.6 ypg. Bowling Green is getting outscored by 16.3 ppg and 141.4 ypg in MAC play. 

The biggest thing for me here is I just don't see the Falcons defense being able to keep the Bobcats from putting up a huge number. Ohio averages 200 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry on the ground. They will be facing a BG defense that gives up 212 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. 

Also, Falcons have nothing left to play for after last week's 44-3 loss to Miami (OH), as the best they can finish is 5-7. BG is also just 3-11 ATS last 14 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 1-7 ATS as a dog of any number this season. Take Ohio! 

5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120

Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye. 

Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs. 

Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going. 

Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -10 -110

There's plenty of people talking about how Baylor deserves to be ranked higher than No. 12 with their perfect record, but I'm with the playoff committee. I just don't think the Bears are anywhere close to as good as their record and I think it could get ugly on Saturday in Waco. 

Oklahoma is hands down the most talented team in the Big 12. They had a slip up at Kansas State, but I think more of that was them just not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserve. They won't make that mistake against the Bears. 

The biggest thing for more me is I don't think Baylor's defense can contain Jalen Hurts and this high-powered Oklahoma offense. That's a big problem, as I don't think the Bears have the goods offensively to go keep this close if the Sooners put 30+ on the board. 

Bears are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when listed as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma has failed to cover their last two in large part because of turnovers. They posted a -2 turnover margin in both ATS losses to K-State and Iowa State. Sooners are 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have posted back-to-back games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Oklahoma! 

3* NCAAF - Public Money ATS DESTROYER  on Ole Miss +21½ -105

While I don't think Ole Miss is going to pull off the massive upset against No. LSU, I do think there's a ton of value with the Rebels getting more than three touchdowns at home, especially with this being a prime time night game. 

This is Ole Miss's Super Bowl, while LSU is in about as big a letdown spot as they could be in off that upset win over Alabama last week. The Tigers have just not responded well off a big road win, as they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off an upset win as a road dog. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. 

Ole Miss is also a team that's been getting disrespected by the books consistently this year, especially in SEC play. Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their 6 conference games this season. Take Ole Miss! 

4* NCAAF - Iowa/Minn Big Ten PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3 -103

One of the more difficult things to do in college football is back bounce from a big win at home on the road against a top tier team. That's the spot we find the Gophers this Saturday, as they make the difficult trip down to Iowa City for a late afternoon kickoff at Kinnick. 

Those that bet against Minnesota last week are all over the Gophers as a slim 3-point dog against Iowa, but I feel the smart money is on the home team. Iowa is a few plays away from being 9-0 themselves. The Hawkeyes 3 losses have all come down to the wire, as they lost 10-3 at Michigan, 17-12 at home to Penn State and 24-22 at Wisconsin this past Saturday. All 3 of those teams are currently ranked in the Top 15 of CFP Rankings. 

I was actually impressed with how well Iowa played in Madison. Even though they gave up 300 on the ground to the Badgers, they still held Wisconsin to just 24 points. Iowa is giving up just 11.7 ppg and 289 ypg. I really think that defense is going to be the difference on Saturday. Hawkeyes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 when facing a team that averages 37 or more points/game. 

You also have to take into account this is by far the toughest road game of the season for Minnesota, who's played 6 of their first 9 at home and their 3 road games have been against Fresno, Purdue and Rutgers. They crushed Rutgers, but only won by 3 at Fresno and by 7 at Purdue. Take Iowa! 

4* NCAAF -Georgia/Auburn SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia -3 +100

I really like Georgia to go into Auburn and easily cover the 3. The Bulldogs had that ugly showing in their lone loss to South Carolina and have been all business since. They rolled Kentucky at home 21-0, beat Florida in Jacksonville 24-17 (wasn't as close as the final score) and just beat Missouri 27-0. 

I have to believe there's a new sense of life with this team after being ranked No. 4 in the recent CFP poll. They know now that if they win out they are in and I just don't think Auburn will be as big a challenge as some think. Sure the Tigers have a great defense, but they have allowed 165+ rushing yards in their last two. If they aren't able to slow down Georgia's ground game they are in big trouble. 

I just don't see Bo Nix and that Auburn offense being able to do enough here for them to win this game, which is basically what they have to do for us to not cover. Bulldogs are a dominant 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after the first month of the season and have covered 13 of their last 15 road games on Saturday. Auburn is also 0-6 ATS last 3 season off a home win. Take Georgia! 

3* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7 -110

The Tigers are worth a look as a touchdown dog at home against the Gators. This is the opportune time to buy low on Missouri, whose last 3 games have saw them lose at Vandy 21-14, at Kentucky 29-7 and most recently at Georgia 27-0. 

As bad as those results look, I'm confident we are going to get the best the Tigers have to offer at home against the No. 11 Gators. History is also on our side here. Missouri is 42-21 ATS last 63 off a loss by 1 or more, 34-16 in their last 50 at home off a road loss and 21-9 ATS last 30 when they come in off 3 straight losses. 

Florida is also a team that I think is a bit overvalued. They have been great against the spread of late, but elite teams (won more than 80% of their games) that have beat the spread by 49 or more in their last 5 games are just 35-73 (32%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take Vanderbilt! 

4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nebraska +14½ -109

Solid value here with the Cornhuskers getting two touchdowns plus the hook at home against the Badgers. To say this season has been a disappointment for Nebraska would be an understatement, but I expect the best they have to offer Saturday against the nationally ranked Badgers. 

If there wasn't already enough motivation for the Cornhuskers, they should get it from the comments made by Wisconsin linebacker Zack Baun, who had this to say about the rivalry. "I think it was a big rivalry back before they had the trophy, so they created the trophy, and now it hasn't left here. I don't know if it's much of a rivalry anymore."

Not only does that add a little fire for Nebraska, it tells me the Badgers aren't taking this game all that seriously. They were already in a big letdown spot coming off two big games against ranked teams in Ohio State and Iowa. 

Wisconsin is just 2-5 ATS last 7 on the road, 4-10 ATS last 14 off a win and 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Nebraska! 

4* NCAAF - Friday Night C-USA NO-BRAINER on Marshall -6 -110

With the recent news that Louisiana Tech starting quarterback J'Mar Smith and top wide out Adrian Hardy are both suspended for this game, this is an easy play on the Thundering Herd at home. 

I just don't think the Bulldogs will be able to overcome the loss of Smith, especially on the road against a good Marshall team that is only giving up 24.0 ppg and 371 ypg. Smith has thrown for almost 2,500 yards with a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. He's also second on the team with 226 rushing yards. He's basically got all the reps and it's just asking too much of an inexperienced backup to play well on such short notice. 

Marshall has struggled to cash at the betting window of late, but they are 31-15 ATS last 46 when they come in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Thundering Herd also own an impressive 16-5-2 ATS mark in their last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Marshall! 

5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119

The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line. 

Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams. 

Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland! 

4* NCAAF - Weekday MAC Attack CASH COW on Akron +17½ -115

I'm well aware of how bad the Zips have been both SU and ATS this season, but I think we are getting too good a price to pass up with the home dog Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan is not the kind of team that should be laying 3 scores on the road. The Eagles have lost 4 of 5 and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. 

Road favorites who are allowing 31+ points/game and have allowed 31 or more in each of their last two are just 34-70 (32.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Eastern Michigan is also just 2-9 ATS under head coach Chris Creighton when his Eagles are playing a horrible team that's won less than 25% of their games. Take Akron! 

4* NFL - Seahawks/49ers MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on 49ers -6 -109

The public is all over Seattle getting close to a touchdown on the road, but I really like the 49er to lay it on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is one of the most complete teams in the league and there's not many teams they want to beat more than Seattle, as these two have formed quite the rivalry over the last decade. 

Most are just assuming Russell Wilson will do enough here to keep Seattle within the number, but  it's been near impossible to throw the ball with any kind of success against this 49ers defense. In San Francisco's last 6 games they are giving up a mere 108 passing/yards game. 

I could see Wilson throwing for 200 yards here, but I just don't think they will be able to score enough here. People like to overlook how poorly this Seahawks defense is playing. Seattle has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5 games and the only exception game against Atlanta without Matt Ryan. 49ers are averaging 35.3 ppg at home this season. Take San Francisco! 

3* NFL - Situational DOG OF THE DAY on Steelers +3½ -105

I like the value here with the Steelers as a home dog. I just think we are seeing the Rams way overvalued here coming off their bye having won and covered each of their last two. I just don't get the hype over LA's last two wins, as they were against two awful teams in the Falcons and Bengals. 

They aren't going to find it so easy moving the ball against this Steelers defense, which has really carried this team back into contention. They have been really good against the pass and I believe if you can make it difficult on Jared Goff and not let him get into a rhythm, this offense struggles to score, especially with how they are running the ball. Rams are only averaging 97 yards/game on the ground and have eclipsed the 100 yard mark just once in their last 6 games. 

Steelers are 7-2-2 ATS last 11 off a SU win and 8-2 ATS last 10 off a cover. Rams are also just 13-29 ATS last 42 vs teams who have a +1 per game turnover margin or better. Steelers have forced 3 or more turnovers in 4 straight games and at least two in 7 straight. Take Pittsburgh! 

3* NFL - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Ravens -10 +100

I got no problem here laying double-digits on the road with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore has won 4 straight and are coming off a 17-point win at home against the Patriots. The Bengals haven't won a game all season and it's got so bad in Cincinnati they are benching Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finley. 

I just don't think it's going to get any better offensively with Finley under center. Andy Dalton wasn't great in the Bengals first 8 games, but he's not the reason they have one of the worst offenses in the league. Bengals have eclipsed 17 points just once in their last 7 games. With the way defenses are struggling to contain Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense, I just don't see Cincinnati keeping this close. 

Ravens are 12-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season in their last 13 road games vs awful defensive teams that are giving up 375+ yards/game. On the flip side of this, Bengals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs good offensive teams that are averaging 350+ yards/game. Take Baltimore! 

3* NFL - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Giants -3 +100

You won't see me laying points on the road with a 2-7 team often, but this isn't really a road game for the Giants, as they share MetLife Stadium with the Jets. I just think the Jets are a dumpster fire right now and it's not going to get any better. 

Sam Darnold and this Jets offense has been atrocious in their last 3 games. Darnold is playing without absolute no confidence right now. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 8 interceptions. It's not just all on Darnold. New York has only eclipsed 20 points once this season, scoring 16 or fewer in all but 2 games. That's why I'm not overly concerned with how the Giants defense has struggled. 

Also, when it's going bad for the Jets, it's a good idea to keep fading them. They are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 4 of their last 5. Jets are also 5-15 ATS last 20 in the 2nd half of the season vs teams that allow 375 or more yards/game, while Giants are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games vs teams allowing 350 or more yards/game. Take the Giants! 

5* NCAAF - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nevada +17½ -105

Love this spot and the price we are getting with the Wolf Pack. This is just too many points for San Diego State to be laying with how much they struggle to score. Aztecs are only averaging 21.7 ppg on the season and it actually gets worse when they play at home, where they are scoring just 16.3 ppg. 

Nevada's defense isn't great, but they did just hold New Mexico to a mere 10-points last week, so they can keep SDST in check. Last time out the Aztecs were a 11.5-point favorite at home to UNLV and barely won 20-17. San Diego State is 3-11 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite. Take Nevada! 

3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -14 -109

I like the Sooners to lay it on the Cyclones and easily cover the two touchdown spread this Saturday. This will be the first time that Oklahoma takes the field since they had that shocking 48-41 loss at Kansas State two weeks ago. I believe that loss was more of the Sooners just being a little too cocky and not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserved. 

I have to believe it hasn't been a fun two weeks of practice for Oklahoma and we are going to get their very best coming out of the bye. This is also a game the Sooners have had circled, as they have definitely not forgot about the last time Iowa State came to Norman and beat them 38-31 as a 31-point underdog. 

Iowa State is also a good but not great team this year. I think that's pretty evident by their last game at home against Oklahoma State, where they lost 34-27 as a 11-point favorite. I know the Cyclones have a decent defense, but I don't think they got any shot here of slowing down Jalen Hurts and that Sooners offense. Take Oklahoma! 

4* NCAAF - Conf-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida International +10½ -108

I really like the value here with FIU catching double-digits against rival FAU. The Golden Panthers have got fire after a slow start. FIU is 4-1 in their last 5 after starting out 1-3. They have failed to cover 3 straight, but I think they go from being overvalue to undervalued with how much the public is on this Owls team. 

FAU has been a solid fade at home, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. They are also just 15-29 ATS last 44 at home when listed as a favorite. Panthers are also a team to back late in the year, as they are 7-3 ATS last 10 after 3 straight conference games. Take FIU! 

3* NCAAF - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on UTSA +4 -105

I like the value here with UTSA catching more than a field goal against the Monarchs. UTSA has gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. Old Dominion hasn't won a game since beating Norfolk State in the opener and have covered only twice in their last six games. Last they were favored was as a 3-point home favorite to ECU and they lost that outright. Road Runners have been a dog of 6 or less twice this year and won both outright, including a double-digit win at UTEP. Take UTSA! 

5* NCAAF - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3 -110

Love the Mountaineers as a home dog this Saturday against the Red Raiders. This couldn't be a better time to buy low on West Virginia, who comes in having lost 4 straight. Even though the Mountaineers easily covered as a 17.5-point home dog last time out at Baylor, most won't be able to get past the fact that they have scored exactly 14 points in each of their last 3 games. 

The thing you have to keep in mind with the recent slide is the fact that it's come against arguably the four best teams in the Big 12 in Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor. Texas Tech is definitely a team they can beat and there's plenty of motivation still for West Virginia, as they need to win 3 of their last 4 to make a bowl. 

Another thing is the Red Raiders should not be favored on the road against any team in the Big 12. Texas Tech is 0-4 on the road this season, where they are giving up 38.2 ppg and 548.2 ypg. Also, Red Raiders have lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is 0-8 ATS as a head coach when his team comes in having lost 4/5 of their last 6. Take West Virginia! 

5* NCAAF - PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -9½ -110

I absolutely love the Huskies here in what I feel is a huge bounce back spot following a couple of tough losses against two of the Pac-12's best in Oregon and Utah. I get crazy things can happen in weekday games and Corvallis is not an easy place to play. However, I just think the talent gap here is too much for the Beavers to keep this to single-digits. 

Last time Washington went on the road they were a slim 6-point favorite at Arizona and they annihilated the Wildcats 51-27. As for Oregon State, not question they are improved, but they still haven't been anyone worth a lick. Last time they hosted a decent team was Utah in the middle of October. Beavers were a mere 14-point dog and got annihilated 52-7. 

I just don't think it's asking a lot for Washington to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. Oregon State is just 2-7 ATS last 9 at home and Huskies are a dominant 14-5 ATS last 19 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Washington! 

3* NCAAF - UCF/Tulsa Weeknight MONEYMAKER on Central Florida -17 -109

I got no problem laying the big number here with UCF at Tulsa Friday night. I get the Golden Hurricane have played some of the top teams in the AAC tough this year, but I just question how much fight they have left after last week's gut-wrenching loss at Tulane. 

With that loss to the Green Wave, Tulsa is now 2-7 on the season and can no longer reach the 6-win mark to become bowl eligible. With that said, I don't know that a fully motivated Golden Hurricane team could keep this close. UCF is rolling right now. The Knights followed up a 63-21 win at Temple with a 44-29 victory of Houston. UCF is scoring 46.3 ppg and Tulsa is allowing 33.0 ppg. Knights are 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road. Take Central Florida! 

4* NCAAF - USF/Temple ATS NO-BRAINER on South Florida +2½ -112

Really like the price and the spot here with South Florida as a home dog Thursday night against Temple. Public is all over the Owls and the books are letting them have it with this line being less than a field goal. 

For most people they just can't get past how bad USF was early in the year. Charlie Strong has really got this team on track and let's not forget this was a team a lot of people were picking ahead of Temple in the ACC prior to the season starting. 

Confidence can be everything and the Bulls have it right now, as they have won 3 of their last 4 and are starting to impose their will on the ground. USF has rushed for 240+ yards in 3 of their last 4. Temple just followed up a 24-point loss at SMU with a 42-point loss at home to UCF. 

Teams with a line of +3 to -3 that rushed for 150+ yards in their last game and are facing a team that was outgained on the ground by 125+ yards are 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take South Florida! 

5* NFL - Cowboys/Giants MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +7 -115

I love the value here with New York getting a TD at home against the Cowboys. No question this line is inflated in favor of Dallas, as they are a massive public team and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league right now at 2-6. 

Dallas also getting a ton due to the fact that they went into their bye off a dominating 37-10 win at home over the Eagles and due to the fact they whooped the Giants at home 35-17 in Week 1. Thing is that was with Eli Manning at quarterback and without their top wide out Golden Tate. Daniel Jones is definitely an upgrade of Eli and I think this offense will be able to do enough to cover this spread. 

Cowboys are just 6-16 ATS last 22 road game soff a home win by 21 or more points and the Giants are a dominant 17-3 ATS last 20 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take New York! 

5* NFL- Pats/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ravens +3½ -115

I know the Patriots have looked unbeatable threw the first half of the season, but you just can't ignore how easy the schedule has been. Their last 7 games have come against the Browns, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo is the only one of those teams with a winning record.

Note that while they beat the Bills 16-10, they should have probably lost. Buffalo had a 375 to 224 edge in total yards and 23 first downs to the Pats 11. This Ravens team is the best that NE will have seen all season. Lamar Jackson's ability to make plays with his legs is the one thing you can't defend for and I think we see the NE defense struggle for the first time this season. Also, big edge playing at home in a prime time game like this. 

Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg are just 18-52 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more. Take Baltimore!

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +3½ -120

As difficult as it may be to bet on a team at this price that doesn't have a win, I really like the value with Miami on Sunday. This is not the same Dolphins team that wasn't trying early in the season. They have really been playing hard and enter having covered 3 straight. 

Jets are a complete mess right now. The ghosts that Sam Darnold started seeing against the Patriots were also in Jacksonville, as Darnold threw 3 more picks and was sacked 8 times by the Jaguars. Not only is he struggling, but there's beef within the locker room and how management handled the attempt to trade safety Jamal Adams. No team wants to go 0-16 and I think we get a big effort here from the Dolphins and they get that first win of 2019. Take Miami! 

4* NCAAF - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on New Mexico +5 -109

The Lobos are definitely worth a look here at this price. I get New Mexico has lost 5 straight and are just 2-6 on the season, but Nevada isn't exactly lighting up the world. Wolf Pack have 4 wins but two of those are against UTEP and Weber State. they have lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6. 

Nevada shouldn't be laying more than a field goal with how they play defense. Wolf Pack are allowing 37.6 ppg and 6.4 yards/play. Lobos have been a great bet under Davie against teams that give up a lot of points. New Mexico has covered 13 of their last 15 against teams that allow 31 or more points/game. Lobos are also 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more at the half. Take New Mexico! 

5* NCAAF - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on UAB +10½ -110

As bad as it's been for the Volunteers this year, I think the public is going to be tempted to take Tennessee laying less than two touchdowns against a team from C-USA, especially considering the Vols have won 2 of their last 3, including a 41-21 blowout win over South Carolina last time out. 

That tells me the books really like UAB's chances to cover and I agree. The Blazers are extremely well coached under Bill Clark, who has a 31-15 record in 3+ seasons in Birmingham. Vols are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games and 2-7 ATS last 9 off a win. 

Great system in play favoring a fade of Tennessee. Home teams that have won 2 of their last 3 games and still own a winning percentage between 25% to 40% are just 8-34 (19%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take UAB! 

4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER  on Oregon State +6½ -107

Big time value here with the Beavers catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Wildcats. Oregon State is a program on the rise. Beavers have already won 3 games this season and just pulled off a big upset at Cal as a double-digit dog. 

Arizona has lost and failed to cover 3 straight games. To say the defense has been bad for the Wildcats would be an understatement. Arizona has allowed 41 or more in 3 straight games. Prior to playing to really good defensive teams in Utah and Cal, Oregon State scored 28 or more in 4 straight, twice eclipsing 40 points. I actually like the Beavers to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance. 

Great system in play favoring a play on the Beavers. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in Weeks 10-13, who have covered 4 of their last 5 are 38-13 (75%) ATS last 10 seasons. Take Oregon State! 

4* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tulane -9½ -109

I got no problem here laying the points with the Green Wave at home. This is the ideal spot to fade Tulsa off an absolutely gut-wrenching 42-41 loss at home to Memphis. That's now 4 straight losses for the Golden Hurricanes and I just don't think they are going to want anything to do with playing a pissed off Tulane team on the road. 

Green Wave are just 4-3, but those 3 losses have all come on the road against top tier teams in Memphis, Navy and Auburn. Last year Tulane won and covered at Tulsa and the year before won 62-28 as a slim 5.5-point home favorite.

Green Wave are 4-0 ATS last 5 at home and 18-8 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Tulsa is 3-9 ATS last 12 off a cover, 1-4 ATS last 5 after scoring 40 or more and 2-8 ATS last 10 after rushing for 200+ yards. Take Tulane! 

4* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Colorado State -9 -108

I got no problem laying single digits with the Rams at home against this UNLV team. The Rebels surprised some people last week with a mere 3-point loss at home to San Diego State as a 11.5-point dog. Mainly because the Aztecs look like a team that will be playing for the MWC title later this month. 

I just think that was UNLV simply giving it all they had and San Diego State kinda just going thru the motions against a team they knew they were better than. Every other loss the Rebels have suffered has been by more than two touchdowns. 

Colorado State got off to that awful 1-5 start, but a lot of that was them just playing a brutal schedule out of the gate Rams enter having won their last two, including a 41-31 upset win at Fresno State last time out. Colorado State has simply been undervalued and it shows with their 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5. 

UNLV is 6-16 ATS last 22 on the road after losing 6/7 of their last 8 games and 3-11 ATS last 14 off a cover. Take Colorado State! 

3* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on TCU +4½ -109

I think the value here with TCU as a dog against the Cowboys. Both teams are off big wins last week. Horned Frogs defeated Texas 37-27 at home, while Oklahoma State went on the road and beat a red-hot ISU team.

I think the key to slowing down this Cowboys team is to stop the run and that's something TCU has done extremely well. Horned Frogs are giving up just 3.2 yards/carry. Oklahoma State had also just lost at home to Baylor by 18 the week before and also lost by double-digit to a pretty mediocre Texas Texas squad. 

Cowboys are much better suited to beat teams that want to get in a shootout. OK State is just 9-21 ATS vs similar teams like TCU that control 32+ minutes of possession and 21+ first downs. Underdog has also covered 4 straight in the series. Take TCU! 

3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Rice +10½ -109

I think we are getting a decent price here with the Owls catching double-digits. Rice is thought of by many as one of the worst teams in the country, as the are winless at 0-8 and haven't been good recently. I'm not saying they are a good team, but they are better than their record. Owls have a mere 8-point loss to undefeated Baylor, only lost by 3 to Louisiana Tech and have been competitive in really all but a couple games against WF and Texas. 

Marshall has been one of the most overvalued valued teams in the country. The Thundering Herd have a solid 5-3 SU record and are riding a 3-game winning streak, but are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. 

Basically anytime Marshall is favored you want to look to the other side. Thundering Herd are 3-11 ATS last 2 seasons when giving points. They have also not covered a single spread in games played on Saturday (0-6) this season. Owls are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home in weeks 10 thru 13 and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take Rice! 

5* NFL - 49ers/Cardinals TNF ATS NO-BRAINER on 49ers -10 -109

Usually I wouldn't lay a big number like this on the road in a division matchup, but I just think the 49ers are going to win here easily. This San Francisco defensive front is unreal and are making it near impossible for opposing teams to throw on them. 49ers rank No. 1 in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 128.7 ypg. 

Arizona is down starting running back David Johnson and backup Chase Edmonds, which forced them to make a trade with the Dolphins for Kenyan Drake. I don't see the Cardinals being able to have the kind of success running the ball needed to keep this 49ers defense honest. 

Last week the Cardinals had just 40 rushing yards and 197 passing yards against a good Saints defense. 49ers should score into the 20's here and easily win this game by 14-plus points. Take San Francisco! 

3* NCAAF - W Virginia/Baylor ATS ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia +19 -115

I feel like the price is right to back the Mountaineers in Thursday's game at Baylor. The Bears are ranked No. 12 and sitting at 7-0, but I'm not buying this being one of the 15 best teams in the country. Last time out Baylor won 45-27 at Oklahoma State, but they trailed by double-digits in the 2nd half. 

West Virginia is a team the betting public wants nothing to do with, which is why we are getting such a great price with them in this one. I know the results don't look great, but the Mountaineers have hung around early in a lot of their games and have played a really tough schedule with 6 of 7 against Power 5 teams. 

Mountaineers new head coach Neal Brown has got his team to thrive in this spot, going 11-2 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning record. Baylor is just 3-12-1 ATS last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Take West Virginia! 

5* NFL - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Packers -4 -105

No reason to overthink this one. This is too good a price to pass up with Green Bay given the circumstances. Kansas City will not have the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes and if you watched the offense last week with Matt Moore after Mahomes went down, it's night and day. I get we are seeing almost a 7-point swing with Mahomes out, but I feel he's worth more than that. 

It's also not just Mahomes that the Chiefs are missing. They are unlikely to have star defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Frank Clark. I get the defense played well against the Broncos, but Denver's offense is a complete mess with how bad Flacco is playing. 

I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and I could see this getting out of hand early. It just feels like a throw away game for KC with Mahomes out. Take Green Bay! 

4* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Raiders +7 -115

The Raiders are definitely worth a look here at this price. Oakland's not a team that gets a lot of love to start with, while Houston is a pretty decent public play with how much the public likes Deshaun Watson. Add in the Raiders coming in off an ugly looking 42-24 loss to the Packers and I don't think there's any doubt this line is inflated. 

However, a closer look at the box score shows the Raiders were a lot more competitive than that final against Green Bay. In fact, Oakland outgained the Packers 484 to 481. They had two times where they had 1st and goal and didn't score a point an another turnover in the redzone. Gruden has this team going in the right direction and I not only think they can cover, but win this game outright. Take Oakland! 

3* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Browns +11½ -115

Cleveland is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Patriots. I just think we are seeing New England way overvalued coming off that dominating performance against the Jets, where they made Sam Darnold see ghosts. 

Most just assume that Cleveland will have no shot of keeping this close, but I think they not only keep it within the number, I think they give NE a real scare here. Browns have a massive edge in rest, as they will be coming off their bye, while the Patriots are on a short week after playing on MNF. 

Favorites of 10.5 or more that are outgaining opponents by 1.75 or more yards/pass attempt are just 15-39 (28%) ATS if off 2 straight games holding a team to 5.5 or fewer yards/pass attempts. Take Cleveland! 

5* NCAAF - Utah St/Air Force MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +4½ -111

I love the Aggies getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. Air Force's starting quarterback Donald Hammond is questionable to play and if he does suit up he might not be 100%. Regardless, I would have liked Utah State at this price. 

Utah State is 4-2 with their only two losses at Wake Forest and at LSU and they probably should have beat the Demon Deacons (lost 35-38). Aggies got one of my favorite 'Group of 5' quarterbacks in Jordan Love and he should torch this Air Force defense that is allowing opposing QB's to complete 64% or more. Last year Love threw for 356 yards and 2 scores against the Aggies. 

Utah State has covered 14 of their last 19 overall as the books just don't give them the credit they deserve. Air Force 0-6 ATS last 6 after covering 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS last 7 after outrushing two straight opponents by 125 or more yards. Take Utah State! 

3* NCAAF - Late Night BAILOUT WINNER on California +21½ -110

Easy play here on the Golden Bears catching more than 3 touchdowns against Utah. The most points Cal has allowed in any game this year is 24. If they allow that we simply need them to score 3 to cover.

We just saw Utah score only 21 at home against ASU. Cal's defense is better and we have seen them play some of their best football on the road as a dog. They won 20-19 as a 13-point dog at Washington and 28-20 as a 2.5-point dog at Ole Miss. They also covered as a 21-point dog at Oregon. Touching on that, no way should Utah be favored by more at home against Cal than the Ducks. Take California! 

3* NCAAF - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Texas State +12 -110

Love the Bobcats here as a double-digit dog against the Red Wolves. I just don't think Arkansas State is worthy of laying a number like this. They just got beat bad at home by Lafayette and the week before lost by 14 as a favorite at Georgia State. This team also lost as a 23-point favorite to Southern Illinois. 

As for Texas State, this team is better than they get credit for. They are just 2-4, but have played a tough schedule. Their 4 losses are to Texas A&M, Wyoming, SMU and ULM. 

More than anything, we got a massive system in play. Teams that have allowed 300 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that just rushed for 100 or less are 4-25 (14%) ATS the last 10 seasons. Take Texas State! 

4* NCAAF - American Athletic PLAY OF THE WEEK  on Tulane +4 -110

The Green Wave are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the Midshipmen. Green Wave are coming off an ugly loss at Memphis, but that's a really good Tigers team. Their only other loss is at Auburn by just 18. 

Navy has been a nice surprise, but I'm just not buying them being as good as their record. Also, they don't get the edge of being an option team and facing a team that doesn't know how to stop it. Tulane also runs the option. 

I just think the Green Wave have the better talent here and they have thrived in this spot. Tulane is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when trailing in their previous game by 24 or more. 

Navy comes in having won and covered 3 straight and are 5-1 ATS on the season. This is the point where you want to fade teams like the Midshipmen. Teams that have won 80% or more of their games and covered the spread by 49 or more points total in their last 5 games are a mere 16-42 (28%) ATS the last 5 seasons when playing a good team that has won 60% to 80% of their games. 

4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida International -3 -110

I see a ton of value here with FIU laying only a field goal against the Blue Raiders on Saturday. The Panthers got off to a slow start with just 1 win in their first 4 games and I think people wrote this team off. 

Turns out the schedule was harder than it looked. They lost at Tulane, who is 5-2 with their only two losses on the road to Auburn and Memphis. They followed that up with a loss at home to WKU and they too are 5-2. The other against LA Tech who is 6-1 and looking like the team to beat in C-USA. 

Since that slow start FIU has gone 3-0 with all 3 coming in blowout fashion. They should have no problem making easy work of Middle Tennessee, who is going to have a hard time bouncing back from a crushing 33-30 loss at North Texas. 

Blue Raiders are 0-5 ATS last 5 versus a team with a winning record. FIU is 6-2 ATS last 8 road games. Take FIU! 

4* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on North Texas -3½ -110

The Mean Green are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the 49ers. North Texas hasn't been as good as people were expecting given they returned Mason Fine at quarterback, but they got two losses at SMU and Cal. They also had an ugly loss to Houston after King redshirted and a loss at SOuthern Miss. 

I like how they responded last week with a 33-30 win over Middle Tennessee. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win by a touchdown against this Charlotte team. The 49ers  are 2-5 and the two wins are against Gardner Webb and UMass. They come in having lost and failed to cover in 4 straight. 

They are giving up 39.4 ppg against teams that only average 29.5 ppg. North Texas is putting up 32.1 ppg and 449 yards/game. Charlotte is just 1-5 ATS last 6 conference games. Take Mean Green! 

5* NCAAF - Auburn/LSU SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU -10 -107

This might seem like a big number for LSU to be laying against a Auburn team that is 6-1 both SU and ATS, but I just think LSU is a clear step above Auburn. Everyone was calling for LSU to have a letdown last week against Mississippi State and they cruised to a 36-13 win. 

Auburn gets a lot of love for beating Oregon and Texas A&M, but they also lost by 9 at Florida and LSU beat the Gators by 14. I just don't think the Auburn can go score for score with LSU and this will get ugly once Auburn is forced to throw. 

Home favorites in games involving two dominant teams that are outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yards/play are 70-32 (69%) ATS if coming off 3 straight games where the gained 6.35 or more yards/play. 

Also a strong system in favor of fading Auburn. Teams like Auburn that have beat the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 5 games and have won 80% or more of their games are a mere 31-70 (31%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take LSU! 

4* NCAAF - Big Ten ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK on Illinois +10 -110

I think we are seeing some great value here with the Fighting Illini as a double-digit dog against Purdue. I think when the public sees a team like Illinois pull off a massive upset like they did last week beating Wisconsin as a 29-point underdog, there first thought is that team will have a big letdown. 

I'm just not buying that. I think we see the Fighting Illini use that win to their advantage and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Purdue covered last week at Iowa as 17.5-point dog, but that Hawkeyes team looks broken. Boilermakers just have no threat of a running game. They are averaging 59 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry. If they struggle at all in the passing game they will lose here. 

Road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent are 36-12 ATS (75%) last 5 seasons when facing a team like Purdue that is off a conference loss by 7 or less. Take Illinois! 

4* NCAAF - USC/Colorado Weeknight NO-BRAINER on Colorado +12 -105

Really like the value here with Colorado as a double-digit home dog against the the Trojans. I think now is the time to strike with the Buffaloes after 3 straight losses. The last two being blowout losses on the road to Oregon and Washington State. 

USC has had their moments and are off an impressive 41-14 win at Arizona, but I'm not ready to lay double-digits with them in a prime time road game. Not to mention this is a really tough spot for the Trojans with a monumental game on deck at home against Oregon. 

USC is just 19-40-1 last 60 off a SU win, 4-11-1 ATS last 16 on the road and 1-6 ATS last 7 on Friday. Take Colorado! 

5* NCAAF - SMU/Houston C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH on SMU -13½ -109

Laying almost two touchdowns on the road in a weekday game isn't thought of as a great play. I don't care. I think SMU is going to absolutely lay it on the Cougars tonight. 

Houston had a spirited effort in the first game after King decided to take a healthy red-shirt because his team wasn't good enough, but that was against a North Texas team that has not lived up to expectations. They then were beat badly at Cincinnati and barely won on the road against UCONN. 

As for the Mustangs, they haven't lost a game behind their star transfer QB Shane Buechele, who ranks in the Top 10 in both yards (2,122) and TD passes (18). Books  have not been able to set the number high enough, as SMU is 6-1 ATS. They are going to score at will against this Houston defense and I don't see the Cougars being able to keep pace. Take SMU! 

4* NFL - Pats/Jets MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Jets +10 -110

This is too good a price to pass up with New York at home. The Jets looked like a different team with Sam Darnold under center last week, as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as a 7-point home dog. New York isn't just going into MNF thinking they can keep it close, they believe they can win outright. 

These two already played back in Week 3, which the Patriots won 30-14. New England only won by 16 and Luke Faulk started that game for the Jets. Tom Brady threw for 306 yards in that win, but the Pats only man aged 68 rushing yards on 27 attempts (2.5 yards/carry). Brady completed 30 of 42 pass attempts. Of those 30, 18 were to Rex Burkhead, Phillip Dorsett and Josh Gordon. Both Burkhead and Gordon are out and Dorsett is questionable. There was also concern Edelman might not play and he had 7 of the other 12 receptions. 

I look for this to be a low-scoring game, which definitely adds to the value here with New York at this price. Jets have covered 24 of their last 35 at home against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ ppg and 7-1-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take New York! 

4* NFL - Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Seahawks -3 -107

No way I'm passing up on the Seahawks as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Ravens. Seattle is 5-1 to start the year and have won 3 straight. Russell Wilson looks like the front runner for the MVP with Mahomes banged up and yet it doesn't feel like this Seahawks team is getting any love. 

I look for Wilson to have a huge game against a suspect Ravens secondary and you know he wants to get the better of former Seahawk safety Earl Thomas. Baltimore ranks in the bottom 10 of the league against the pass, as opposing QB's are completing 61% and averaging 7.7 yards/attempt. 

Favorites off 2 straight games with 50 or more points scored are 35-12 (75%) ATS the last 10 seasons in games where both defenses are struggling (allowing 23-27 ppg). Take the Seattle! 

5* NFL - Saints/Bears NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bears -3 -120

It's been an impressive run for New Orleans behind Teddy Bridgewater while Drew Brees recovers from a thumb injury, but I don't see the Saints winning in Chicago on Sunday. While they have been winning games, it's not because Bridgewater is lighting up defenses. 

He certainly isn't going to light up this Bears defense, which is No. 6 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Making matters even worse, New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara. 

Bears will be getting Trubisky back from injury and I think we are going to see a little more offense out of Chicago out of the bye week. Bears are a lot closer to being 5-0 than they get credit for. They are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs other NFC teams. Take Chicago! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cardinals +3½ -115

I just don't trust this Giants team and feel they are getting a little too much love because of the media hype around Daniel Jones. Not to mention NY is expected to get back Saquon Barkley. The problem that keeps getting overlooked with the Giants is the defense. 

New York is 31st out of 32 teams against the pass, giving up 285 yards/game. They also rank in the bottom 10 (24th) against the run, allowing 127.3 ypg. That defense is going up against a confident rookie QB in Kyler Murray, who has guided the Cardinals to back-to-back wins. 

Giants are 1-9 ATS at home in the 1st half of the season over the last 3 years. They are just 8-19 ATS last 27 off a road loss by 21 or more. Cardinals are 12-3 ATS last 15 games with a total of 49.5 or more. Take Arizona! 

5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Boise State -7 -109

I'll gladly lay the touchdown with Boise State on the road against the Cougars. I'm not really sure why this BYU team gets so much love. The schedule has been brutal, there's no denying that. However, their two wins are against Tenn and USC by 3-points a piece. 

This team lost by 26 at home to Washington, lost at Toledo and they just fell at South Florida. That loss to USF is bad. The Bulls were without starting QB Blake Barnett (had just 72 yards passing). That's the same USF team that lost 49-0 to Wisconsin and somehow managed to lose to an awful Georgia Tech team. 

I get that Boise State's QB might not play, but the backup has been solid. More than anything, I don't think the Broncos need much from their QB to win here by double-digits. Take Boise State! 

4* NCAAF - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on USC -9½ -108

Definitely worth a look here to lay the 9.5 at home with USC. I think this is the perfect spot to buy low on the Trojans. To a lot of people this will look like too many points for USC to be laying. Trojans are off back-to-back losses and just 3-3 overall. Arizona is off a loss to Washington, but had won 4 straight prior to that defeat. 

I just don't think people realize how good this USC team is. The Trojans could of easily won at BYU (lost by 3 in OT), they only lost by 14 at Washington and put up quite the fight at Notre Dame last week (lost by 3). Their 3 wins are against Fresno St, Utah and Stanford, so there have been no easy games on the schedule. 

That is until now. Arizona is mediocre at best. losing by 24 at Washington was not a surprise and I don't see them being able to keep USC from marching up and down the field. Keep in mind the Wildcats allowed 45 to Hawaii and 41 to Northern Arizona earlier this season. Trojans got to much talent at the skill positions. Take USC! 

3* NCAAF - C Carolina/G Southern Side/Total Parlay on Georgia Southern -6½ & UNDER 45½

I like both the side and total in Saturday's Sun Belt showdown between Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern. Last time out the Eagles held South Alabama to just 17 points and I don't see them allowing much in this one. 

Coastal Carolina just gave up 350 yards rushing last time out to Georgia State. All Georgia Southern wants to do is run the ball with that option attack. These option teams are not fun to face and I just think the Chanticleers are going to want nothing to do with being cut block all game. 

Coastal Carolina is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games and have failed to cover 6 straight conference games. Eagles are 7-3 ATS last 10 at home. UNDER is 5-2 in Chanticleers last 7 off a loss and 12-4 in Georgia Southern's last 16 after giving up 20+ points. Take Georgia Southern & UNDER! 

5* NCAAF - Mountain West PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -17½ -103

Love the Cowboys to cover the number at home against the Lobos. New Mexico lost by 52 on the road to Notre Dame and just lost by 14 at home to a bad Colorado State team. They got no business keeping this close. 

Cowboys will be motivated off a tough a loss at SDSU and the game before they took out UNLV at home 53-17. Last year Wyoming destroyed the Lobos 31-3 and the year before it was 42-3. Expect more of the same on Saturday. 

Cowboys are 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a bad team that's won between 25% and 40% of their games the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot by 19.5 ppg. Take Wyoming! 

4* NCAAF - Marshall/FAU C-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -4½ -100

I got no problem here laying the 4.5 with FAU at home against Marshall. I just think the perception here is that these two teams are evenly matched, but I don't see that at all. For starters, Marshall lost 13-24 to Middle Tennessee and FAU just beat that same Blue Raiders team 28-13. 

Marshall has two cupcake wins over VMI and ODU to go along with a fortunate 33-31 win at home against Ohio. FAU's only two losses are to Ohio State and UCF. People give Marshall credit for only losing by 7 at Boise State, but that was a misleading final. Broncos outgained the Herd 437 to 172 with a 22 to 9 edge in first downs. Marshall also got annihilated 52-14 at home against Cincinnati. 

The other big thing for me is the Owls have the much better signal caller in this matchup. Isaiah Green for Marshall provides a dual threat, but is really limited throwing the ball. FAU's Chris Robinson is completing 64% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. Look for the Owls to win the turnover battle at home and get their revenge from last year's lopsided loss at Marshall. Take FAU! 

4* NCAAF - UCLA/Stanford Weeknight NO-BRAINER on UCLA +4½ -110

I could see why some would be scared to back UCLA as a small road dog against Stanford, given the Bruins are off an ugly 17-point loss at home to Oregon State and just 1-5 on the season. However, this game is there for the taking, as the Cardinal have been decimated with injuries on the offensive side of the ball. 

Stanford will be without their top two quarterbacks in K.J. Costello and Davis Mills. They will have to turn to sophore Jack West, who will be making his first career start. That's bad enough, but it gets worse. The Cardinal have also sustained a number of injuries on the offensive line and will have 3 freshman forced into action. Even against a sub-par UCLA defense, I don't see the Stanford offense being able to do much. 

Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 ponts who are giving up 6.1 or more yards/play are 41-12 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons after a game where they had 475 or more total yards. Take UCLA! 

5* NCAAF - Early Week Day PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Troy -14½ -110

I think the books made a big mistake not making Troy a much bigger favorite here. There's no denying that this year's Trojans team isn't as good as the one that won 10-games last year. That and the fact that Troy is just 1-4 ATS has people considering South Alabama at this price. 

It's not like The Trojans have been losing to bad teams and they are a couple close losses away from being 4-1 with their only loss on the road to Missouri. They are still way more talented than South Alabama and I just don't see the Jaguars pathetic excuse for an offense being able to keep pace. 

South Alabama has not eclipsed 17 points in any of their last 4 games and have played some bad defenses in this stretch. The most they have scored all season against a FBS opponent is 21 against Nebraska and they had a 13-yard TD drive in that game. The Trojans has scored 35+ in every game not against a Power 5 opponent. Take Troy! 

4* NFL - Lions/Packers MNF NO-BRAINER on Lions +4 -110

I think we are getting some big time value here with Detroit catching more than a field goal. The betting public just assumes an Aaron Rodgers led team can't lose at home in a prime time game, but the Lions have won 4 straight in the series and have won 3 of their last 4 trips to Green Bay. 

Packers defense has been one of the more improved units in the league, but I don't know that it's as good as people think. Also, the offense hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard. Green Bay has just 1 game this season where they have thrown for more than 235 yards. They also have finished with fewer than 80 yards rushing in 3 of 5 games.

Detroit is a team that gets little to no respect, but I really like what Matt Patricia is doing with this team. They won at Philadelphia and should have beat the Chiefs at home. They will be ready to go here coming off a bye. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lions win this outright. Give me Detroit +4! 

3* NFL - Vegas ATS SHOCKER on Jets +7½ -115

This is just too good a price to pass up on the Jets. I think the public perception is that the Cowboys will bounce back against a bad team after a couple of bad losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think there's some pretty clear flaws with that Cowboys offense. 

As for the Jets, you have to take their 0-4 start and factor in they didn't have starting quarterback Sam Darnold for 3 of those games. Not only that, but they were quickly down to their No. 3 starter and it was a massive drop off. Darnold will put more pressure on the defense, which should allow Le'Veon Bell to be a bigger factor. 

Cowboys are just 6-18 ATS last 24 road games vs bad offensive teams (avg. 258 or less ypg). Jets are also 7-1-1 ATS last 9 at home against a team with a .500 or better record on the road. Take New York! 

4* NFL - 49ers/Rams NFC West NO-BRAINER on Rams -3 -120

Love the value here with the Rams laying only a field goal at home against the 49ers. I know Todd Gurley is questionable, but with or without him I think LA gets the job done at home.

A lot of people are jumping on the 49ers bandwagon after that impressive 31-3 win over Cleveland on Monday Night Football. SF is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. However, they have played a relatively easy schedule. 

Their worst offensive performance came in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, when they struggled to run the ball. Finished with just 98 yards on 32 attempts. Rams have been pretty solid against th run, especially at home, where they are allowing just 72 ypg and 2.9 yards/carry. Also, 49ers run game figures to take a huge hit with the loss of fullback Kyle Juszczyk. When Juszczyk got hurt in that Browns game, the SF's offense did not look the same. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dolphins +3½ -110

As bad as the Dolphins have looked to start out the 2019 season, I have to take my chances with Miami covering as a 3.5-point home dog against Washington. There's no way this Redskins team should be favored on the road against any team in the league right now. 

Washington just fired head coach Jay Gruden and might be without two starters on the offensive line, as both Donald Penn and Brandon Scherff are both questionable. Keep in mind they are still without star left tackle Trent Williams who is holding out. 

Miami clearly is in rebuilding mode, but there's no way the players aren't going to try to give their best effort for a win. I think we get one of their best efforts all season at home coming off a bye against a team they know they can beat. Let's overlook that the Dolphins have played 4 potential playoff teams in the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers. Take Miami! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Eagles +3 +104

I like the Eagles to go into Minnesota and come away with a win, making them an easy play at +3. I just think there's a lot more flaws with this Vikings team than people realize. They are 3-2, but their 3 wins are against the Falcons, Raiders and Giants. 

Kirk Cousin has not looked good outside of that game against a bad Giants defense. When this team has faced a good defense they have not done much. They had just 16 points against Green Bay and managed a mere 6 against the Bears. 

Eagles defense has been spotty, but most of their problems have come against the pass. In fact, they lead the league in run defense, giving up just 63 yards/game. If Minnesota can't run the ball they are in serious trouble. Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have to do much to get the win. Take Philadelphia! 

4* NCAAF -Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Kentucky -6½ -110

I think this is the ideal spot to buy low and back the Wildcats laying less than a touchdown at home against the Razorbacks. Kentucky was the surprise team of the SEC last year, as they went 5-3 in the conference and 10-3 overall. THis year they are just 2-3 and coming into this game off 3 straight losses. 

The thing is, they lost at home to Florida by just 8 and had a 21-10 lead on the Gators in the 4th quarter. They then lost on the road to Miss State and South Carolina, which was to be expected. This feels like a make or break point in their season and I like Mark Stoops team to respond in a big way, especially coming off a bye week. 

All you need to know about the Razorbacks is they lost at home to San Jose STate 24-31 and that they have allowed 31+ points in every game against a FBS opponent. Note that Kentucky hasn't allowed more than 30 in a game this season. Also quarterback Nick Starkel, who took over the starting job from Ben Hicks is questionable to play. I look for the Wildcats to win comfortably. Take Kentucky! 

4* NCAAF - Tech/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor -10 -110

This might seem like a big number for the Bears to be laying at home against Texas Tech, who just upset Oklahoma State as a double-digit home dog, but I think people are sleeping on this Baylor team. I don't see this game being close at all. 

Texas Tech really benefited from a sloppy Cowboys performance. Oklahoma State turned it over 5 times. Red Raiders defense had only forced 4 turnovers in their first 4 games. In their previous two games, both on the road, Tech was destroyed. They lost 55-16 at Oklahoma and 28-14 at Arizona. I think the Bears win here by 14+ easy. Take Baylor! 

4* NCAAF - Alabama/TX A&M SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Alabama -17 -104

I got no problem here laying the 17 on the road with Alabama. The Crimson Tide are a team on a mission and I just don't think the Aggies have the goods to keep this thing respectable. People will point to Texas A&M only losing to Clemson by 14-points on the road, but the Tigers haven't looked anywhere near as good as we thought they would. 

Then there's that ugly loss at home to Auburn, which now looks even worse after Auburn's 24-13 loss at Florida. Auburn went into College Station and won 28-20. Score makes it look like it was close, but Texas A&M trailed 21-3 going into the 4th quarter. 

Both games the Aggies offense really struggled to score and that's the big issue here. Alabama is going to score and score a lot. Alabama is averaging 51.8 ppg against teams that only give up 29.3 ppg. 

There's also the Nick Saban vs a former assistant at head coach. Fisher coached under Saban back at LSU. Saban is a perfect 17-0 SU against his former assistants and has won by an average score of 41.6 to 14.2. Take Alabama! 

3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Temple +5½ -110

I see a ton of value here with Temple at this price. The Owls already have one home win as a home dog against Maryland. They were also a 5.5-point dog in that fight. Memphis is just getting a little too much love off their 5-0 start.

Their best win was against Ole Miss and they barely beat them. This will also be by far their toughest road game of 2019. Tigers are a mere 19-35 ATS in their last 54 as a favorite of -3.5 to -10. Owls are 16-6 ATS last 22 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Take Temple! 

5* NCAAF - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +3½ -105

I love Purdue getting a field goal and the hook at home against Maryland. No way should the Terps be favored on the road here. I get that Purdue is down their starting QB and star wide out Rondale Moore, but it's not like Maryland isn't down a few key players. Terps will be without their starting QB in Josh Jackson and will once again turn to Tyrrell Pigrome. 

Sure Pigrome has experienced, but there's a reason he's been a backup for four years. It's pretty big downgrade here from Jackson. The fact that Maryland is favored with him as the starter will only serve as more motivation for Jeff Brohm's team. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog. 

Maryland comes in off a 48-7 blowout win over Rutgers. Based on what we have seen from the Scarlet Knights this season, I'm not sure why everyone is so excited about that win. This is still the same team that lost 20-17 on the road to Temple and managed just 128 total yards in a 59-0 loss at home to Penn State.  

Keep in mind Maryland followed a 63-20 blowout win over Syracuse with that upset loss at Temple and are just 4-15 ATS in their last 21 off a conference win by 21 or more points. Take Purdue! 

4* NCAAF - Virginia/Miami ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami-FL -2 -110

In the eyes of the betting public there's no way the Hurricanes should be favored in this matchup. Virginia is No. 20 in the country, coming off a bye and are 4-1 with their only loss coming in a game against Notre Dame where they turned it over 5 times. Miami on the other hand is sitting at 2-3 and just lost outright as a 14-point favorite to Va Tech, who had not been playing well. 

Those that didn't watch the game against the Hokies, Miami starting quarterback Jarren Williams threw an interception on each of their first 3 series and Mike Harley fumbled on the next. It was 28-0 before the Hurricanes knew what hit them. They actually came back and tied the game 35-35. 

Backup QB N'Kosi Perry who started a few games last year, threw for 422 yards and 4 scores in relief of Williams. I think he's brought life to the offense and head coach Manny Diaz is taking more control of the defense this week. This is still the same team that had Florida on the ropes in Week 1. 

I think we see the Hurricane's defense really step up in this game and shutdown a pretty mediocre Virginia offense. Take Miami! 

4* NCAAF - Colo St/NM MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -3½ +100

It can be really hard to lay points with a team that is sitting at 1-5 with their only win coming at home against Western Illinois, but I really like the Rams to win here by at least a touchdown. Colorado State may be 1-5, but a lot of that is the schedule. The 5 losses are against Colorado, Arkansas, Toledo, Utah State and San Diego State. They were a dog in all of those. 

New Mexico isn't just a team they can beat, but beat rather easily. The Lobos have losses against the likes of Liberty and San Jose State. They also barely beat in-state rival New Mexico State 55-52. Aggies haven't won a game this season. Take Colorado State! 

4* NFL - Browns/49ers MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Browns +4 -115

The Browns are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the 49ers. San Francisco is overvalued after their 3-0 start. 49ers are improved, but also haven't really been tested.

Their last two wins were against the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, which they were lucky to win, and the Bengals, who are now 0-5. Their 31-17 win over the Bucs in Week 1 looks decent, but they were actually outgained 295 to 256. Difference in the game was they had two interceptions returned for scores. 

Browns had that ugly 43-13 loss at home to the Titans and people were quick to jump off the bandwagon. They have won 2 of their last 3 since with the only loss to the Rams. They are coming off their best performance of the season, destroying the Ravens 40-25 in Baltimore. 

Browns have now covered 4 straight on the road and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Cleveland! 

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated. 

Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything. 

I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati! 

5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110

This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland. 

What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago! 

3* NCAAF - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Boise State -22½ -110

I'm confident Boise State will return from their bye week with a blowout win at UNLV. Broncos are 4-0 with a win at Florida State and a couple of solid home wins over Marshall and Air Force. Hard to find a lot to complain about, but with a true freshman at QB a bye week can do wonders.

 I just don't see UNLV being able to keep pace offensively with Boise State. Outside of a sloppy 14 effort against Marshall, the Broncos have put 30+ on the board. The only team UNLV has held under 30 is Southern Utah. They gave up 43 to Arkansas State and 53 to Wyoming. Would not be surprised at all if Boise scored 50+. 

UNLV's offense put up 56 in the opener, but hasn't eclipsed 17 in the 3 games since. Boise State has held each of their last 3 teams under 20 points. I could see the Broncos having this spread covered early in the 1st half. Take Boise State! 

4* NCAAF - Nebraska/Northwestern BIG TEN PLAY OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -7 -108

It's really hard to back a team that just burned you, especially when they fail to cover in the manner than Nebraska did last week against Ohio State. Lot of people liked the Cornhuskers to at worse cover the 17-point spread. They lost 48-7 getting outgained by an embarrassing 349 yards (580 to 231). 

I think we are seeing a much lower number and a lot of value with only needing Nebraska to win by 8 or more. People are giving Northwestern credit for playing Wisconsin tough last week (lost 24-15 as a 22.5-point dog). However, I think some of that was the Badgers suffering a bit of a letdown off that emotional thumping of Michigan the previous week. 

I think the Northwestern offense is getting a pass for their anemic offensive numbers the last two games because it was against Michigan State and Wisconsin. They only had 210 yards and 7 points (scoreless through 3+ quarters) against a Stanford defense that has given up 45 on two different occasions. 

It's also a lot easier to pick yourself up after a blowout loss than it is a game where you lose in the final seconds. I think we get a big effort from Nebraska at home and I just don't see the Wildcats being able to keep it close. Take Nebraska! 

4* NCAAF- Auburn/Florida SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Auburn -2½ -112

As difficult as it is to bet against Dan Mullen as a home dog, I can't help myself by play Auburn at less than a field goal. I know Florida is 5-0 and ranked No. 10 in the country, but I don't see them as the 10th best team. Two of their five wins are against FCS foes. The other 3 against Miami, @ Kentucky and Tennessee. Wildcats and Vols are both bad and they only beat the Hurricanes by 4. Miami lost at UNC and only beat C Michigan by 5 at home. 

Auburn's 5-0 resume reads a little different. They got two Top 25 wins. One against then No. 11 Oregon and the other an impressive 28-20 win at No. 17 Texas A&M at night. They also played a really good Tulane team in non-conference and just whooped Mississippi State 56-23. 

Auburn has one of the best defensive fronts in the country and will be facing what I think is a very weak Florida offense that is down to No. 2 QB Kyle Trask. Trask has played okay against suspect competition, but I don't think he's prepared for what he will be up against on Saturday. Take Auburn! 

3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa State -3 -110

I like the Cyclones to easily win by more than a field goal at home against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State comes in at 2-2 and off a crushing 23-21 loss at Baylor. A game they probably should have won, despite being down 20-0 going into the 4th quarter. They let another game get away late earlier this year against Iowa. This team could easily be 4-0. No way this line is 3 if they were. 

TCU just whooped up on Kansas, big deal. Even though the Jayhawks beat BC on the road earlier this year, that doesn't mean they are a serious threat in the Big 12. They are still the worst team in the conference. Prior to that they lost at home to SMU, who plays in the AAC. Their only other win vs a FBS opponent is a road win at Purdue with the Boilermakers down their starting QB. 

SMU put up 41 points and over 400 yards of offense against the Horned Frogs. I look for Brock Purdy and the ISU offense to have similar success. On the flip side of this, I look for the Cyclones defensive front to impose their will and make things difficult for a TCU offense that would much rather run than pass. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAF - Early Bird Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Army +3 +100

The Black Knights are definitely worth a look here as a home dog against the Green Wave. In fact, my numbers suggest that Army should be the ones favored in this matchup. Black Knights should be 4-0. The only loss being that 21-24 setback at Michigan. 

I just think because they struggled in their opener with Rice (won 14-7 as a 23-point favorite), haven't really beat anyone of significance (other wins against UTSA and Morgan State) and the perception of how bad Michigan is, has the Black Knights undervalued. 

Jeff Monken has done an outstanding job with this program. After going just 6-18 his first two years, they are 32-11 with a perfect 3-0 record in bowl games. Tulane hasn't played since that epic 38-31 win and cover over Houston as a 4.5-point favorite a couple weeks ago.

Green Wave are 3-1 with their only loss at Auburn. This is definitely the best team yet for Willie Fritz at Tulane, but they are simply not worthy of being road favorites against a team like Army. Black Knights are giving up just 104 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry, so it's a good matchup against the run-heavy Tulane offense. Take Army!