Sports Picks & Predictions

3* Total Annihilator on Arkansas/Mississippi State UNDER

The total for this game seems to be much higher than it should be given the complete lack of offensive production from these teams. Mississippi State is averaging a mere 20 points per game when playing on the road this season. They are a team that has been plagued with inopportune turnovers recently, committing seven in their past three games. The Bulldogs may average 433 yards per game, but they have blown several drives when they get close to the red zone.

Arkansas has also had a lot of trouble getting points on the board. They average just 20.4 points per game overall this season. They are a very one-sided offense, running the ball 40 times per game to just 25 pass attempts. When they do throw the ball, they complete 47.5% of their attempts for 149 yards. They are not a team that can score quickly, and that makes the under very favorable. I expect Mississippi State to stack an extra player in the box and shut down Arkansas ground game, which will severely diminish their ability to score points.

Mississippi State is 23-9 in favor of the under when playing against a team with a losing record. The under is also 8-2 when the Bulldogs are coming off a bye week. Arkansas has a 4-0 record in favor of the under when they are coming off a bye week. Both of these teams have had defensive problems this season, and with both teams coming off a bye, I have to believe they used the extra preparation time to improve defensively.

3* Total No Brainer on USC/Stanford UNDER

This total completely undervalues both of these defensive units. The Stanford Cardinal have allowed a mere 19.4 points per game this season. When playing on the road they have stepped up their level of play slightly, holding opponents to an even 19 points per game. The run defense has been solid, giving up 99 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry. That is big trouble for a USC offense that gets almost half their yardage on the ground and averages 38 running plays to just 26 pass attempts per game.

The Trojans defense has played every bit as good as Stanford

4* Total Dominator on Michigan/Northwestern UNDER

The total on this game seems to be quite a big higher than it should be. The Wolverines are averaging just 23.3 points per game when playing on the road. Their offense has struggled to move the ball, gaining a mere 98 rushing yards in those games on 2.2 yards per carry. That could be big trouble against a Northwestern front seven that has performed so well this year, especially considering how run biased the Wolverines offense has been.

Northwestern has also struggled with consistency on offense this season. They have gone under the total in six of their nine games. The defense has played well, especially when playing at home. The offense should struggle against the Wolverines defense because of the same issue Michigan faces offensively. Northwestern is a very run biased team, and the Wolverines front seven has allowed opponents to average a mere 108 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry.

The under is 8-0 in Northwestern

3* Total Annihilator on West Virginia/Kansas UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high considering how poorly these teams have played offensively this season. West Virginia averages a mere 18.2 points per game on the road. They have struggled to move the ball on the ground or through the air, gaining a total average of 348 yards per game in their five road games this season.

Kansas has also struggled on offense. The Jayhawks are scoring an embarrassing 15.9 points per game overall. When playing at home they do not get much of a boost averaging 18.6 points per game. The Jayhawks offense has accumulated an average of just 295 total yards per game. The fact that West Virginia has struggled defensively should be a non-issue since Kansas is its own worst enemy.

When Kansas is coming off a blowout loss by 35 points or more against a conference opponent the under is a perfect 8-0 over the last three seasons. The under is also 5-2 in West Virginia

3* Total Dominator on Iowa State/Oklahoma UNDER

The Cyclones have certainly played poorly on defense, but they face an Oklahoma team that has scored over 40 points just once this season. It would take a huge offensive number from the Sooners to send this game over the total, and that scenario seems very unlikely given how bad the offense has played at times this year.

The Cyclones have been held to 17 points or less in three of their last four games. They are up against a Sooners defense that is allowing a mere 14.8 points per game at home this season. The Sooners have faced a very tough schedule this year, and Iowa State lakes the talent to match the average points allowed from Oklahoma.

The under is 12-3 in Oklahoma

5* CFB Total of the Year on Pitt/Notre Dame UNDER

This total is set far to high given the way these teams matchup. Notre Dame should struggle to score against this outstanding Panthers secondary. The Irish have a balanced offensive attack, but rely on on the passing game for almost two thirds of their total yardage. Pittsburgh's secondary has held opponents to a 58.9% completion percentage for just 202 yards per game this season. That is 106 yards less than what the Irish are used to averaging through the air in road games this season.

Pittsburgh should also struggle to find the endzone against this Notre Dame defense that has held opponents to 23 points per game. Notre Dame's opponents have averaged 28.8 points per game this season, and the fact that they are holding them to just 23 points indicates just out underrated of a unit they are. Pittsburgh's offensive numbers are a bit misleading thanks to a soft schedule to start the season. In the last two weeks they have scored an average just 15.5 points per game.

The under is 11-2 in Notre Dame's last 13 games when coming off a home win. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under in a game involving two teams that are wining 50 yards per game of their opponents in a non-conference matchup between two teams from automatic qualifying BCS conferences. The Irish are an independent, but still account for several games in this system because of their automatic qualification status. This system is 54-22 in favor of the under over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Syracuse/Maryland UNDER

This total is set far to high for a matchup featuring two very poor offensive teams. Maryland's offensive numbers are a bit misleading since they have played such a soft schedule this season. They scored just 10 points against Wake Forest, and had the game against Clemson been closer I don't think the Tigers defense would have allowed them to score 27 points in that game.

Syracuse has averaged just 17 points per game on the road this year. They will face a Maryland defense that has held its opponents to a mere 21.5 points per game in home games. The Orange are a run biased team, and the Terrapins have allowed a mere 3.6 yards per carry overall this season.

Maryland is coming off a bye week, and after giving up an average of 37 points in their last two games you can be certain they made defensive adjustments with the extra time off. The Orange defense has been built to shutdown strong passing teams, so don't expect the Terrapins to have a strong passing game in this matchup. The under is 17-5 in Syracuse's last 22 games against teams averaging 275 or more passing yards per game.

4* Big Ten Total of the Month on Penn St/Minn UNDER

The way these teams matchup plays strongly in favor of the under. Penn State does not score a lot of points on the road, averaging just 20.3 points per game. They will struggled to match that number against a Minnesota defense that has been solid against conference opponents.

Don't think for a second the Golden Gophers are going to have a big offensive performance. They are a very run biased team, so expect Penn State to stack an extra player upfront to defend them. The weakest link on the Nittany Lions defense is their secondary, but the Gophers average just 18 pass attempts per game. Penn State has held four of their last five opponents to 150 rushing yards or less, and that is trouble for a Gophers offense that gets two thirds of their total yardage on the ground.

The under is 20-5 in Penn State's last 25 games when they are coming off a straight up win in which they failed to cover the spread as a favorite. With the offensive strengths matching up to the defensive strengths of their opponent for both of these teams I expect this game to turn into a defensive battle. Expect a low scoring game with a lot of clock-killing drives centered on running the ball.

3* Total Annihilator on Iowa State/TCU UNDER

The oddsmakers have set this total far too high base on the fact that the Cyclones defense has played so poorly this year. What they seem to have forgotten to take into account is how poorly the Horned Frogs have played on the road. TCU averages just 16 points per game in road games this season.

The Horned Frogs should have no problem slowing down a Cyclones team that is coming off a seven-point performance last week versus Kansas State. Iowa State has scored a mere seven points in two of their last three games. They offense would not have put up such a large number against Oklahoma State had the Cowboys not been blowout them out. I don

4* Total No Brainer on Louisville/UConn UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high given the way these teams matchup. First of all, the Louisville defense has been tough to score on when playing on the road. They have allowed a mere 7.7 points per game, and they face a Huskies team that has averaged just 16.4 points per game this season.

Connecticut's defense is also being undervalued. The Huskies opponents have averaged 30.9 points per game this season, yet UConn has held them to just 25.5 points per game when playing at home. I expect the Huskies fan base to be extra fired up with a ranked opponent in town, and that should definitely slow the Cardinals down on offense. The Cardinals average almost 10 points per game less on the road than they do overall this season so crowd noise has obviously been an issue for them.

The under is 7-3 in Uconn's last 10 home games and 6-2 in Louisville's last eight games overall. The under is also 5-0 in Louisville's last five road games against a team with a losing home record. They are not a team that runs the score up on their opponents, and that is a huge factor favoring the under in this matchup. The Cardinals have not scored more than 35 points in any of their last four games and I expect that trend to continue this week.

3* Total Dominator on Florida State OVER

I expect a shootout in this battle of undefeated teams. Miami is scoring an impressive 39.6 points per game this season. The Hurricane's defense has been average at best. Their opponents have scored an average of just 20.7 points per game this season, and they have held them right around their typical scoring average. If that remains true today, they will be giving up a lot of points to this Florida State team that is scoring 62.6 points per game.

The Seminoles offense has been unstoppable all year, and I don't think the Hurricanes are talented enough defensively to slow them down. They have scored almost double the amount of points their opponents have allowed on average this season. The Seminoles defense has played well this season, but they are definitely seeing their points allowed average increase with each conference game being played. Undefeated teams find ways to score even against the best defenses in football, and Miami should do just that this week.

The over is 9-0 in Florida State's last nine home games. It is also 12-3 in their last 15 home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their previous game. Miami has posted a 6-2 record in favor of the over in their last eight road games. Given the fact that this is an in-state rivalry means that neither team will take their foot off the gas when they secure a large lead. Both of these teams have a lot of scoring potential, and it should show in what should be a very exciting matchup.

4* Total Annihilator on ISU/K-State UNDER

The Kansas State defense is not getting enough credit in this game, and their offense is getting a little too much credit. The Wildcats held Baylor to a mere 35 points. The Bears aver averaging just shy of 70 points per game this season, so I can only imagine how difficult it will be for a team like Iowa State to find the end zone when they average just 25.4 points per game.

The Cyclones are not as bad as they look defensively. You have to remember, this is a team whose opponents have an offensive average of almost 36 points per game. They will catch a break this week against Kansas State. The Wildcats are not a team that accumulates a lot of yardage through the air. Their strong run bias is also a clock killer, which makes the under a very favorable side to be on. The Wildcats have gone under the total in four of their last five games.

In head-to-head meetings between these teams the under is 5-2 in the last seven games. The under is also 18-6 in Iowa State

3* Total Dominator on Wake Forest UNDER

The total on this game seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. Syracuse has certainly done a lot of scoring at home this season, but the majority of those points have been accumulated facing much weaker opponents than Wake Forest. I don

3* Total Annihilator on Miss. St/South Carolina UNDER

The total on this game seems a bit high given how well both of these teams have played defensively. Also, it is worth noting that Connor Shaw and Mike Davis are listed as probably, but it is unlikely they will be playing at 100% this week. South Carolina has already been performing well under there season averages the past two weeks, and with two key players not at 100% I think their trend of under performing offensively will continue.

Mississippi State has allowed opponents an average of 22.5 points per game on the road this season. That is impressive given their opponents offensive average has been just shy of 30 points per game. They have held opponents to 359 yards of offense, and if they repeat that feat this week that will be a full 106 yards under the Gamecocks typical production levels. The Gamecocks are no slouch on defense, too. They have held opponents to 21 points per game when those opponents have average 30.1 points prior to facing South Carolina.

The under is 10-4 in the Bulldogs last 14 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. They have also posted a 46-19 record towards the under in their last 65 games following an ATS loss. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the under has a 4-1 record in the last five games. Expect a defensive battle today.

3* Total Annihilator on USC/Oregon State UNDER

The way these teams matchup puts a lot of value on the under. USC's greatest strength on defense is their secondary. They will face an Oregon State team that relies on the passing game for 86% of their total offensive production. Against a pass happy team like the Beavers I think USC can match their 19.2 points allowed average this season.

Oregon State is no slouch on defense either. Their run defense has held opponents to 138 yards per game, well below the 170 rushing yard average that the Trojans are used to. As far as the total is concerned, this game should play out in much like Oregon State's game with Stanford. I expect a defensive battle out of both teams.

The under is 13-3-1 in the Trojans last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. It is also 5-2 in their last seven games against a team with a winning record. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the game involves two good teams that are outgaining opponents by .6 to 1.2 yards per play after seven or more games in the season. This system is 138-76 to the under for the last 10 seasons.