Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NCAAF - WEEKNIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Virginia/Miami-FL under 43½ -110

I don't expect to see a whole lot of offense in this game. Don't be fooled by Miami's last game against Va Tech where they saw 82 combined points in a 42-35 upset win by the Hokies. Hurricanes had 5 turnovers in the first half and trailed 28-7. They had no choice but to turn it into a track meet. 

Manny Diaz was not happy with the defensive showing and he's taking more control of that side of the ball. Virginia's offense is not great. They want to beat you with ball control and strong defense. Last year's final between these two was 16-13 and that was with a total of 47. I also think this being a weekday prime time game at home will add some life to that Miami defense. 

Hurricanes offense should be better with Perry, but it's also limited. They don't have much of a running game, so it's not going to be easy against this stingy Cavaliers defense. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 20 points. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Hurricanes last 29 overall, 14-5 in their last 19 vs a conference opponent and 15-2 in their last 17 after playing their previous game against a conference opponent. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF - Tulsa/Wyoming Total DOMINATOR on Wyoming/Tulsa under 45 -110

I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well. 

Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg. 

I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half). 

Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Houston/Tulane Total NO-BRAINER on Under 57.5

I really like the value here with the UNDER in tonight's American Athletic showdown between Houston and Tulane. I think the number here is a lot higher than it should be because of how poor the Cougars defense has looked thru the first 3 weeks of the season. 

Houston is giving up 32.3 ppg and 506 ypg, but that's because they played two of the best offenses in the country in Oklahoma and Washington State. Defense actually played well for a good portion of that game last week against the Cougars. 

Tulane is not a team that looks to put a ton of points on the scoreboard. Green Wave are built around running the football and stopping the run. Tulane is putting up 5.9 yards/carry on the ground and giving up just 3.0 ypg. They are the ideal team for a low-scoring game, as they will limit the number of possessions with all the clock they eat up. 

Last year the Cougars defense wasn't great and they held Tulane to just 17 points. Houston had 48 in that one and the game still stayed under the total of 68. Last time they played in Tulane the two combined for only 37. 

UNDER is 44-16 (73%) in the first month of the season when you have a total of 56.5 to 63 with a team (Houston) that has lost 2 of their first 3 games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Western Kentucky/Louisville under 51½ -110

I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER. I think when most people think of WKU and Louisville they think of high-scoring offenses and sub-par defenses. That's just not how these two teams are anymore. 

Scott Satterfield is the new head coach at Louisville coming over from App State. I know they gave up 35 to Notre Dame, but the defense had their moments and that's a good ND offense with a top tier QB. Last week they pitched a shutout at Eastern Kentucky, giving up just 172 total yards. 

Tyson Helton is the new HC at Western Kentucky and he's the brother of USC head coach Clay Helton. Hilltoppers held FIU to just 14 points and 217 total yards on the road last week. 

These two teams also combined for just 37 points last year with a total of 54. I see this being a very similar type of game. 

Great system in play here. Non-conference games played at a neutral site with a total of 49.5 to 56 with two teams who are strong defensively (allowing 280 to 330 yards/game) have gone UNDER the total 38 out of the last 46 (83%). This system dates back to 1992, so it's no fluke. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Wake Forest/Rice under 59 -105

The books have set the total way too high for Friday's showdown between Rice and Wake Forest. While the Demon Deacons just played in a shootout last week against Utah State, the Owls lost 14-7 at Army, coming no where close to the total of 46.5. 

I don't think Rice is getting enough credit for what they did on the road against Army last week. While Army had 231 rushing yards, they needed 56 attempts to get there. Now they head home for a pretty big home game, as this is one of just two FBS matchups on the board tonight. I look for the defense to feed off the home crowd. 

I could see Rice scoring more than 7-points this week, but I don't think they are going to light up the scoreboard. Owls only attempted 14 passes last week and when you focus on the run and can't pick up big yards in the air, you eat up a lot clock. 

UNDER has cashed in 15 of the Demon Deacons last 20 games vs a team with a losing record and 4-0-1 in the Owls last 5 after totaling fewer than 170 yards in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* Clemson/Alabama Total Winner on  UNDER

The first two times these two met they played some really high-scoring games, but last year was a defensive struggle that Alabama won 24-6. I get that both teams have transitioned to younger and more talented quarterbacks. I just don't see the kind of up and down the field type of game needed to eclipse a total of this magnitude. 

Both of these teams are absolutely loaded with talent on the defensive side of the ball and I just think both of these offensive lines are going to have a tough time keeping the opposing teams' defensive line out of their backfield. I think there's going to be a lot of negative plays, which should cause a lot of 3rd and long situations that allow the defense to get off the field. I also think scoring (touchdowns) in the red-zone will be tough for both sides. Take the UNDER! 

3* Dollar General Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo/Troy UNDER

I think there's a ton of value here with the Trojans at basically a pick'em and this game going UNDER the total set here by the books. 

Buffalo suffered a crushing 30-29 loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, despite having a 29-10 lead at the half. That loss will be a tough one for the Bulls to bounce back from and the even bigger thing is the MAC simply wasn't that good. We already saw Northern Illinois get rolled in their bowl game against UAB. 

Troy won at Nebraska and were one of the best bets in the country this year with a 8-3 ATS mark. A big reason for that is their defense, which only gave up 21.2 ppg. I think they have no problem slowing down the high-powered attack of Buffalo. 

The Bulls do have a good defense, so I'm expecting Troy to go off, which is why I think there's a big time correlation here with the Trojans and the UNDER

Troy is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 games overall and 42-20-2 ATS last 64 vs a team with a winning record. Bulls are 6-18 ATS last 24 off a conference loss by 7 or less and 0-5 ATS last 5 on a neutral site. 

UNDER is 10-4 in Buffalo's last 14 off a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 road games off a conference loss. UNDER is also 12-4-1 in Trojans last 17 games played on fieldturf. Take Troy & UNDER! 

3* Idaho Potato Bowl TOTAL DESTROYER on BYU OVER

The books have simply not set the total high enough for this one. I think BYU could flirt with covering the number on their own, as we saw Western Michigan give up some huge numbers down the stretch. 

The Broncos last 4 games they gave up 51 to Toledo, 59 to Ohio 42 to Ball State and 21 to Northern Illinois. The key thing to note about the finale against the Huskies, is that's a really bad Northern Illinois offense and the game meant nothing to them, as they had already secured a spot in the MAC title game the next week against Buffalo. 

Don't be fooled by BYU only averaging 25.4 ppg. They play a really tough schedule for an Independent. They started the year with 3 straight against Arizona, Cal and Wisconsin. They also played Washington and Utah later in the year out of the Power 5. Not to mention games against Utah State, Northern Illinois and Boise State. Just about all of these teams are above average defensively. 

Had BYU played Western Michigan's schedule I'm confident they would have averaged closer to 35 ppg. The offense was also better once they went with Zach Wilson at quarterback. 

I look for the Cougars to put up a bunch of points and while the BYU defense is decent, I think the Broncos will put up more than enough to push us over the mark. Take the OVER! 

4* Bahamas Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on Toledo UNDER

The total for this game was simply set way too high by the books, as this thing figures to be a lot more of a defensive battle than you would think for two teams that put up quite a few points. 

FIU finished the year averaging 34.6 ppg, but a lot of that was them pouring it on bad teams. The only teams they reached at least 30 points against were UMass, ARK-Pine Bluff, Rice, WKU, UTSA and Charlotte. 

It was a very similar story for Toledo. The Rockets put up 41.1 ppg, but the only teams they eclipsed 30 points against were VMI, Nevada, Bowling Green, W Michigan, Ball St, Kent St and C Michigan. 

These are two strong defensive teams and there's plenty of motivation for both teams in this one. Toledo hasn't won a bowl game since 2015 and there's still got to be a sour taste in their mouths from last year's 34-0 loss to Appalachian State as a 7-point favorite in the Dollar General Bowl. 

As for the Panthers, they haven't won a bowl game since 2010 and with a win can set a new school record for wins in a single season. Last year they lost 28-3 to Temple in the Gasparilla Bowl. Take the UNDER! 

4* Gasparilla Bowl Total NO-BRAINER on Marshall/South Florida UNDER

I just don't see these two teams coming anywhere close to this total. USF is known for having a high-powered offense and they were putting up some big numbers early in the year, but they were one of the worst offenses in the country to close out the season. 

In the Bulls last 4 games they averaged just 16.3 ppg. Marshall has one of the best defenses of all the Group of 5 teams. They allowed just 22 ppg and were outstanding against the run, giving up only 2.9 yards/carry and 104 yards/game. 

I believe for USF's offense to score a bunch of points they have to be able to run the football and I just don't see Marshall giving up a big number on the ground. There's also a good chance that starting QB Blake Barnett doesn't play. 

As for the Thundering Herd offense, it's struggled to get going and I think we saw just how limited they are when they could only put up 20 points against an struggling Virginia Tech defense. I'm not saying neither team is going to score, I just don't see either side eclipsing the 30 points mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Camellia Bowl TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Michigan UNDER

This doesn't figure to be the most entertaining bowl game, as both of these offenses figure to have a hard time moving the football. I think there's a ton of value with the UNDER in this contest due to the matchup. 

Georgia Southern is an option team. They average 49 rush attempts per game compared to 9 pass attempts. Eastern Michigan has a solid defense and the extra time to prepare for bowl games will pay off huge. As will the fact that the Eagles played a non-conference game in late October against Army. 

While the Black Knights had 289 rushing yards, they ran it a ridiculous 73 times for just 4.0 yards/carry. That's the perfect recipe for long drives that just eat up the clock. 

As for Eastern Michigan's offense it's nothing special. They only averaged 27.5 ppg and the teams they played gave up close to 30 ppg. They can't run the ball very well, as they only averaged 3.8 yards/carry. Georgia Southern only gave up 3.9 yards/carry. I just think they will find themselves behind the chains a lot, which is a drive killer and often leads to having to settle for field goals in the red zone. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Opening Week BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR  on Arizona State UNDER

The books have complete missed the mark on this total. I think we are getting over a touchdown in value with the UNDER in this one. This Fresno State defense is the real deal. The Bulldogs ranked 17th in the country in total defense. They were great against both the run (27th) and the pass (30th). 

With Arizona State's star wide out N'Keal Harry sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft, that only makes it that much easier on the Fresno State defense. Harry was a massive part of this offense. He had 73 catches for 1,088 yards and 9 scores. Only one other player on the team has more than 35 catches and that's Kyle Williams with 40 and he's also next best in receiving yards at 432. 

Without Harry even on the field, that lets the Bulldogs focus their defense even more on the run. I'm not expecting them to shutdown the Sun Devils rushing attack, but I think they can slow it down, which is going to lead to long possessions and less scoring chances for both sides. 

I also don't see much coming out of Fresno State's offense. They really struggled to score against the better defenses they faced. They only 14 points against a pretty bad Minnesota team in non-conference, so I'm pretty confident Arizona State can slow them down. I think both teams struggle to top 24 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Oklahoma UNDER

I just think the there's too much value here with the UNDER at this number. I know these two teams have been a part of several Big 12 shootouts this year, but these two have to average more than 3 touchdowns (21.75 points) per quarter for this to go over the mark. 

I just think when you factor in how big a game this, with a spot in the Big 12 Championship and maybe more with the playoffs if some other teams drop, chances are we aren't going to see 90 points on the scoreboard. Not to mention the game will be played in less than ideal conditions with temps in the mid 30's. 

UNDER is 15-4 in West Virginia's last 19 games after scoring 31 or more in 4 straight and 14-5 in the Mountaineers 19 games under head coach Dana Holgorsen with a spread of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

3* OLE MISS/VANDY SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss/Vandy OVER

I don't think we are going to have any problem eclipsing the total in this one. Ole Miss is the ideal team for high-scoring games. They got a ton of talent offensively and play no defense. It's almost like they should be in the Big 12. 

The Rebels come in having allowed 31 or more in each of their last 4 games. On the road this season, Ole Miss is allowing 35.7 ppg and 509 ypg, with teams averaging 252 yards rushing and another 257 through the air. 

Vanderbilt is a team that has the potential to go off offensively. They had more than 460 yards last week at Missouri, but only 28 points to show for it. The Week before they hung 45 on Arkansas. They have scored 30+ in 4 games and will do so here. They also will give up 30+ in this one, as the only teams to slow down this Ole Miss offense are Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Four of the best defensive teams in the country. Take the OVER! 

3* Tulane/Houston NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/Houston OVER

I just don't think these two teams are going to have any problem eclipsing what looks to be a high total. Houston's star defensive tackle, Ed Oliver, who is a sure-fire Top 5 pick in next year's NFL draft is out with a knee injury and the defense has completely fell apart with him sidelined.

He's missed the last 3 games and in those contests the Cougars have allowed 36 to South Florida, 45 to SMU and 59 to Temple. Every one of those saw at least 76 combined points and you have to go back to a Oct. 13 game against East Carolina to find the last contest that Houston didn't combine for more than the total here. 

Tulane has held 3 straight opponents under 20 points, but it's a bit misleading, as they gave up 450 yards last week to ECU and surrendered just 18 points. The previous week they gave up 442 to USF and they only finished with 15 points. Houston hasn't score less the 30 and have eclipsed 40 in all but one game this season. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Miami-OH/Northern Illinois UNDER

I just don't think this is going to be a very entertaining game to watch and these two will struggle to come close to the total set by the books. For starters, the game-time temperature is executed to be around 25-degrees and it will only get colder. It's just not as easy to score when it's that cold, as the passing game and big chunk plays are limited. 

For Northern Illinois this will be their final home game, so I expect a solid effort here on senior night. However, I do think some of the motivation here was lost with Western Michigan's loss to Ball State last night. With that defeat, the Huskies go from needing a win to lock up a spot in the MAC title to this game being more about pride. 

As for Miami, they kept their bowl hopes alive last week in a 30-28 win over Ohio and with a a win here they got a good shot to reach 6-6, as they host Ball State in the finale. Expect a big effort here from the RedHawks in a low-scoring affair. Take the UNDER! 

4* Thursday Night NCAAF Over/Under KNOCKOUT on Wake Forest/NC State UNDER

Too much value here with the UNDER to pass up. The books have inflated this number quite a bit with it being a prime time game and the public sure to come in on the OVER with how these teams have looked recently. 

Wake Forest combined for 91 at Louisville a couple weeks back and 65 last week with Syracuse. NC State's last two have seen them combine for 91 with Syracuse and 75 with FSU. 

I just don't think we are going to get enough scoring from both sides to eclipse the mark here. Wake Forest lost starting quarterback Sam Hartman and have had less than a handful of games to get red-shirt sophomore Jamie Newman ready for action. Newman has seen the field some, but hasn't exactly impressed. 

With how good NC State is against the run, I don't think Wake will be able to sustain enough drives to score the number of points needed to push this over. If the Demon Deacons don't score and the Wolfpack get up big, they will likely take their foot off the gas and look to play a lot of seniors, who maybe don't get to see the field a lot (senior night).

UNDER is also 13-3 in NC State's last 16 off a home conference win, 12-4 in their last 16 vs a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 vs teams who can't stop the run (allowing 200+ ypc). Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Tues. Night MAC Total NO-BRAINER on Kent State/Buffalo UNDER

A lot of people are going to look and see that Buffalo is averaging 34.9 ppg and are fresh off a 51-point outburst against a good Miami, OH team and instantly want to take the OVER at this number, especially seeing that Kent State just played in a game against Bowling Green that saw a combined 63 points scored. 

What they will fail to notice is that the conditions here are going to be miserable. Wins are expected to be blowing at close to 30 mph and there's a chance it could rain on top of that. That's going to all but negate the passing games for both teams and really make it hard to just get first downs. 

Buffalo is just going to do whatever it takes to get the win and aren't going to be interested in keeping their starters in with a massive game on deck against Ohio (win and the lock up a spot in MAC Championship Game). Take the UNDER! 

3* Temple/UCF NCAAF PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple UNDER

I don't see any way these two teams combine for more than 60 points. These are two of the top defensive teams in the ACC. UCF is only giving up 19.2 ppg in conference play and the Owls are allowing just 14.2. 

The biggest key here is this Temple defense has the talent and speed to contain this high-powered UCF offense. The Owls are 25th in the country this season, giving up just 330 yards/game, while also holding teams to just 4.2 yards/carry. 

On top of that star quarterback McKenzie Milton is dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss UCF's last game. While he likely plays, he might not pose near the threat running if it's not 100%. 

Temple may once again be without star running back Ryquell Armstead and the offense hasn't been the same the last two games without him. Even if he does return, it's unlikely the Owls will put up a big number on the road against this UCF defense. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Arizona State/USC UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark with the total they have set for Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between USC and Arizona State. This thing has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. 

Arizona State comes in averaging 27.4 ppg, but that's a misleading number, as they scored 49 against a bad UTSA team at home and 52 against Oregon State. Those are the only two games all season in which they have scored more than 21 points. 

USC's defense isn't as dominant as it has been in the past, but it should have no problem keeping the Sun Devils in check, especially at home. 

They key here is the Trojans offense also figures to be limited. Starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play, as he hasn't cleared the concussion protocol. Backup, Matt Fink is also not available with a rib injury.

Red-shirt freshman, Jack Sears, will start if Daniels can't go and he's not attempted a single pass at the collegiate level. USC will be a lot more simple with their offensive attack and try to keep Sears from having to do too much in his first start, which likely means a lot of running the football. 

UNDER is 7-0 in USC's last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards and 21-7-1 in their last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record. UNDER is also 4-1 in Arizona State's last 5 conference games and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* Thursday Night NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on App State/GA Southern OVER

I just think there's too much value here on the OVER with the low total in Thursday's huge Sun Belt showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. With the Mountaineers a 10-point favorite, the numbers here suggest the books see a final score of something like 28-17. 

Only once all season has Appalachian State failed to score at least 35 points. I just think this offense is too good for Georgia Southern to keep in check and could easily see them scoring 30+. I also think the Eagles are going to be able to put together multiple scoring drives and get into the 20s, especially with this game being played on their home field. 

Note that Georgia Southern comes into this game with the 5th ranked rushing offense in the country at 275.5 ypg. The last 11 times App St has faced a team that averts 200 or more rushing yards, the average score in those games have been 48.3. OVER is also 6-1 in the Eagles last 7 games played in the month of October. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor UNDER

Most people are expecting a shootout tonight between Baylor and West Virginia, but that's not going to be the case. West Virginia's offense was exposed in their last game against Iowa State, as they managed just 152 total and 9 first downs. 

That's the same ISU defense that 37 points and 519 yards to Oklahoma at home. Because Baylor gave up 66 on the road to the Sooners, I think people just assume West Virginia is going to score at will here. I don't think that's the case. The Mountaineers aren't close to Oklahoma's offense. 

Baylor's defense has been getting better and just held Texas to 23 points on the road in their last game. As for the Bears' offense, it's been potent at times, but for the most part it's struggled against better competition. I mean they only had 26 points at home against Kansas. West Virginia's defense isn't great, but it's a lot stronger at home than it is on the road. 

The other key here is both teams are coming off a bye, which I think a lot of people overlook when handicapping the total. There's a lot of tape out on both teams and the defenses for both teams are going to be well prepared for this one. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF SUN BELT PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Southern UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this non-conference slate between Georgia Southern and New Mexico State. I think we are seeing a big number here because of how poorly the Aggies defense has played, as they come in giving up 43.7 ppg.

The key here is that Georgia Southern is a team that runs the option, which means they are going to put together a lot of long possessions and eat up the clock. I think New Mexico State can at least hold their own defensively against the run at home and last time out for the Eagles they managed just 15 points against a pretty bad Texas State defense. 

The other thing that I think will keep this thing UNDER the mark, is I don't see New Mexico State's offense being able to do much of anything in this one. Georgia Southern has really played well defensively this year, as they are giving up just 17.3 ppg. The Aggies aren't a good rushing team and their passing attack is going to be greatly limited in this one, as winds are expected to be blowing straight across the field at close to 20 mph. 

UNDER was 6-0 in New Mexico State's 6 home games over the last 3 seasons in the 2nd half of the season and 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in Georgia Southern's last 7 games and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Nebraska UNDER

Most are going to expect a high-scoring game here, but I think I don't see these two going past the mark set here. This is a must-win game for both sides. Nebraska is still searching for their first win of 2018, while the Golden Gophers are trying to snap a 3-game skid. 

I know the defensive numbers aren't great for the Cornhuskers, but while they ended up giving up 34 points to Northwestern, the Wildcats only had 14 going into the 4th quarter. Given how much this game means to Nebraska I expect a max effort on the defensive side of the ball and this Minnesota offense is certainly one they can contain. The Gophers are averaging just 19.3 ppg in Big Ten play and that's with them scoring 31 against Iowa. 

Minnesota's defense has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 3 games, but are much better than that and have simply played some high-powered offenses during this stretch. 

Another factor here that will get overlooked by most, is the conditions for this game should favor the defenses. It's going to be windy in Linclon with wends blowing anywhere from 15 to 20 mph. That's going to force both teams to run it more than they would like and could also play a role in special teams with field goals being that much tougher.

UNDER is also 13-2 in Nebraska's last 15 games as a favorite and 10-2 over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* Air Force/UNLV MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on UNLV UNDER

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total they have set for Friday's Mountain West matchup between Air Force and UNLV. With how bad these two teams are passing and how much they love to run the football, I just don't see enough possessions for these two get anywhere close to 60 points. 

The Falcons enter 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Needless to say this is going to be one of the more boring games to watch, but boring is great when you are betting the UNDER, especially with a total as high as this one. 

In order for these two teams to eclipse the total they need 57 points and to get to that mark they would have to average more than two touchdowns a quarter. Unless both teams just have turnover after turnover, I don't see that happening. In fact, I think these two will be lucky to get to 45 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Prime Time TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Stanford OVER

Both the Fighting Irish and Cardinal are well known for their defenses and both have impressed early against quality competition. Stanford has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 10 points or less, including limiting USC to just 3-points. Notre Dame has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 17 or fewer, one of those being Shea Patterson and the Wolverines. 

However, both defenses gave up a season-high last week. With Stanford allowing 31 to Oregon (should have been a lot more) and the Irish allowing 27 to Wake Forest. I believe that's a telling sign of what's to come on Saturday, as I look for these two teams to fly over this total. 

Notre Dame, like a lot of top tier teams around the country, made a move at quarterback, going to sophomore Ian Book. It sure looked like the right move, as Book went 25 of 34 for 325 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 43 yards and 3 touchdowns. I believe he takes a good Irish offense and makes them elite.

As for Stanford, their offense couldn't have looked much worse early on, but they finally looked up to par in last week's game agains the Ducks. K.J. Costello threw for 327 yards and 3 scores and Bryce Love had 89 yards on just 19 attempts. 

I think both teams score in the high 20's and potentially into the 30's, which will be more than enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. Take the OVER 52! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Florida UNDER

I just think the number here is way too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Florida and Colorado State. The Rams defense couldn't have looked much worse in their first two games, as they gave up 43 to Hawaii and 45 to Colorado. I think a lot of that had to do with just how good those two teams are offensively. 

Colorado State turned around and held Arkansas to just 27 points in a 34-27 outright win as a 14-point dog. They held the Razorbacks scoreless over the final 20+ minutes of that game. Florida put up 53 in their opener against Charleston Southern, but showed their true colors in a 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky. I like Dan Mullen and expect big things from him in Gainesville, but I'm just not a fan of Felipe Franks at quarterback and the fact that he led the team with 44 yards rushing against Kentucky is a huge concern. 

The key here is I think we are going to see a highly motivated Florida team on the defensive side of the ball off that embarrassing home loss. Colorado State has put up 34 twice against a couple of bad defenses in Hawaii and Arkansas, but only managed 13 against in-state rival Colorado. I just don't see how these teams combine for anywhere close to this number. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Memphis -

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Friday's non-conference slate that has Memphis hosting Georgia State. A lot of people are just going to assume that Memphis is going to light up the scoreboard against this Panthers team after they allowed 41 to NC State last week.

That was a very misleading score, as the Tigers added a couple of garbage touchdowns late in that game, one right after Georgia State failed to covert on 4th down and the other after a fumble where they had to go just 12 yards. The Wolfpack also got a field goal on the final play of the 2nd half. 

I also think people are a little too high on this Memphis offense because they put up 66 in the opener against a bad Mercer team. The offense couldn't make a play when it needed to against a pretty bad Navy defense last week and they simply aren't going to be as potent as they have the last couple of years after losing one of their all-time great quarterbacks in Riley Ferguson. 

UNDER has cashed in 24 of Georgia State's last 32 games, including 9 of their last 12 on the road and 9 of their last 12 in non-conference play. Take the UNDER! 

4* In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring matchup on Saturday when the Cyclones travel across the state to take on in-state rival Iowa. The Cyclones didn't even get to play a full quarter before their opener against South Dakota State was canceled because of weather. The Hawkeyes meanwhile overcame a sluggish start to defeat Northern Illinois 33-7. 

The Hawkeyes only had 3 points just about midway thru the 3rd quarter before they exploded for 30 in the final 23 minutes of regulation. Despite a talented quarterback in Nathan Stanley, this is still your same old Iowa offense that wants to ground and pound their way down the field. 

I think they are going to have a really tough time moving the ball against a Cyclones defense that has 6 starters back from a stop unit that only allowed 20.9 ppg in 2017. 

As for Iowa State and their offense, they caught a tough break not being able to work out the kinks against a FCS team in their opener. I think they too will struggle to score. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when it's a late kickoff like this. Last 5 times the Cyclones have visited Iowa City, they have failed to score more than 20 points in any game and were held to single-digits in 4 of 5 meetings. 

Iowa held a Northern Illinois team that many think are the favorites to win the MAC, to just 7 points and 211 total yards. That's pretty impressive given the Huskies returned 8 starters from a unit that averaged 28.9 ppg and 378 ypg last year. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Labor Day Total DESTROYER on Virginia Tech/Florida State UNDER

I think a lot of people are going to look at how little these two teams have coming back defensively and be quick to back the OVER. While both FSU and Virginia Tech will lack experience on defense, these are two top notch programs that recruit extremely well. I expect both teams to be just fine defensively this year. 

I also think we have two solid defensive coordinators that will have their units ready to go with all the extra time they have had to prepare for this game. Virginia Tech's Bud Foster has been doing this for ever and I really like new FSU defensive coordinator Harlon Barnett, who spent the last 3 years at Michigan State. 

UNDER is 35-17 in Virginia Tech's last 52 conference games and 20-7 in Florida State's last 27 vs ACC opponents. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Louisville/Alabama OVER

I don't see anyway the final score between Alabama and Louisville stays UNDER 65 points. Other sharps couldn't agree more, as this total has grown quite a bit from the original number. 

Over the last 5 years, the Crimson Tide's lowest scoring average for a season is 35.1 ppg, which is pretty impressive given they have been primarily a running team. Last year they averaged 37.1 ppg and averaged 251 ypg on the ground and just 193 ypg through the air. 

Alabama is still going to run all over people, especially with the talent they have coming back at running back and how stacked they are on the offensive line. They are also going to exploit teams through the air behind sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. I know it's up in the air whether Tua or Jalen Hurts will start, but I expect Tagovailoa to get most of the reps. Not to mention the Crimson Tide will be going up against a Louisville defense that returns just 4 starters from a unit that wasn't very good in 2017. 

Scoring on Alabama is never an easy task, as they routinely have one of the best defenses in the country. They will be strong again on that side of the ball, but they do only have 3 starters back. I also think Louisville's offense isn't getting near the respect they deserve because of the fact that they lost Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals have some legit playmakers at receiver and sophomore Juwan Pass is extremely talented (No. 7 recruit at his position coming out of high school). 

I see this being a shootout and that's been the case in recent years for Alabama in these neutral site games. The OVER is 21-8 in the Crimson Tide's last 29 games played on a neutral field. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Michigan/Notre Dame OVER

There's been plenty of talk going around about how good this Michigan defense is going to be in 2018, so the public is going to be drawn to playing the UNDER in their games, especially against a top tier team like Notre Dame, who is returning 9 starters from a defense that only gave up 21.5 ppg last year. 

While I'm not about to say that these two teams won't be as good as advertised on defense, I think it's got the total way to low given the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball. In Jim Harbaugh's first 3 years at Michigan, the Wolverines have got average to below-average play out of the quarterback position. That's no longer going to be the case with Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson now the starter. 

As for how the Notre Dame offense will be able to score against this Michigan defense. One of the toughest things for elite defenses is to defend mobile quarterbacks and the Irish have one of the best dual-threats in the country in Brandon Wimbush. They are also a lot more talented on the offensive line than people are giving them credit for after losing two 1st round draft picks. 

I think both teams are going to have some explosive plays offensively that lead to quick scores. I also think we could see some turnovers by both teams that lead to quick scores, which will ultimately push this OVER the mark. 

Keep in mind, despite the less than stellar QB play, the OVER is 24-14-1 in Michigan games since Harbaugh came to town. OVER is also 7-1-1 in the Wolverine's last 9 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in Notre Dame's last 4 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UCLA OVER

If there's one thing we learned with Chip Kelly in his stint with the NFL, he's going to run his up-tempo offensive attack regardless of the talent on hand. Win or lose, UCLA is going to push the pace offensively this year. With a defense that doesn't have near the talent as year's past, it's going to ultimately lead to a lot of high-scoring games. 

So while this might seem like a high total for this matchup, I don't think it's anywhere close to what it should be. I look for UCLA and Cincinnati to fly over the mark here. 

One of the reasons this total isn't higher, is the fact that Cincinnati has really struggled offensively the past two seasons. The Bearcats averaged just 19.3 ppg in 2016 and barely improved to 20.9 ppg last year. However, I'm expecting big improvements in year two under offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and more than anything the UCLA defense is going to give up a ton of yards and points with how much they are going to be on the field. 

As a head coach at Oregon, the OVER went 32-15 when Kelly's Ducks were listed as the favorite and 19-5 at home. I expect more of the same now that he's a Bruin. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin/WKU OVER

I'm not sure what the books are thinking by setting the total this low, but I will gladly jump on the OVER. In Wisconsin's last 3 home openers, they have eclipsed the total set here on their own. The Badgers put up 58 on Miami (OH) in 2015, 54 two years ago against Akron and 59 last season against Utah State. 

I think there's a really good chance that trend continues. Wisconsin returns 9 starters on offense, including junior quarterback Alex Hornibrook, running back Jonathan Taylor (Heisman candidate) and all 5 starters on what many believe is the best unit in the country. WKU simply doesn't have the size or talent on defense to keep Wisconsin from doing whatever they want in this one. 

I also think we could see the Hilltoppers score a few more points than expected. While WKU only has 3 starters back on offense, they should actually be improved on that side of the ball, as last year's unit was a complete mess. They will also be up against an inexperienced Wisconsin defense, which could struggle early on with only 4 starters back from last year. Note that the Badgers have already lost two projected starters up front in defensive ends Garrett Rand and Isaiahh Loudermilk. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse/Western Michigan UNDER

I just don't see Friday's opener between Syracuse and Western Michigan coming anywhere close to the total set here by the books. There's a perception out there that the OVER is a strong play when it comes to games involving Syracuse. A lot of that has to do with how poor they have been defensively and the fact that they run an up-tempo offense. 

It's played a large part in the books routinely inflating the total in the Orange's games and as a result the UNDER has been the wise investment. In fact, the UNDER is 18-6 over the first two seasons with Babers as head coach. That includes an 11-3 UNDER mark in the first half of the season. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is perfect 7-0 going back over the years when Syracuse is listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 

There will definitely be some games in which Syracuse puts up a big number, but I don't think it will be against the Broncos. Western Michigan only gave up 29 ppg last year (25.9 ppg if you exclude overtime) despite being in the first year of a new system. I think this defense is going to come out and surprise some people in this matchup, as they should feed off a rowdy home crowd that will excited for the rare opportunity to host a Power 5 team.

I also don't see the Broncos lighting up the scoreboard. Western Michigan has some nice pieces coming back, but lose their All-American left tackle and star running back Javion Franklin, who rushed for over 1,200 yards and 11 scores. The Orange were a lot better than the 32.2 ppg they ended up allowing for the season, as they only allowed 24.8 ppg over the first 9 games and injuries were the big reason for the decline. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Opening Day Total DESTRUCTION  on Wyoming/New Mexico St OVER

These two teams should have no problem going over this extremely low total for college football. The public take on Wyoming is that they are going to be way down offensively after losing an NFL-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. The thing is, the Cowboys offense didn't produce anywhere close to their potential last year, as they went from averaging 35.9 ppg in 2016 to only putting up 23.5 ppg. 

What gets overlooked with the loss of Allen is the fact that Wyoming has 9 of their other 10 starters back. The new starter will be red-shirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal, who beat out the senior Nick Smith (has 2 career starts), which I think can only be viewed as a positive on Vander Waal's potential. 

New Mexico State wil have 9 starters back on a defense that gave up just 29.7 ppg, but they won't have their dynamic pass rusher, Cedric Wilson (team-high 8.5 sacks last year), as out the first two games. Starting free safety Ron LaForce, who had a 104 tackles last year is also questionable to play with a foot injury. 

On top of that, I think the defense is a bit overrated for the Aggies, as last year's numbers were greatly aided by playing in the Sun Belt (Independent in 2018) and they did give up 35+ in half of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Mountain West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawaii/Colorado State OVER

These two teams combined for 72 points in Colorado State's 51-21 win at Hawaii last year and have now gone OVER the total in each of their last 4 meetings. I know both teams don't have a lot coming back on the offensive side of the ball, but keep in mind the total last year was 66, so that's been taken into account with this number. 

While Colorado State has to replace starting quarterback Nick Stevens, as well as their to p rusher and 4 of their top 5 receivers, the Rams have averaged at least 30 ppg in each of the first 3 years under head coach Mike Bobo. The loss of Stevens was also eased by the addition of Washington grad transfer KJ Carta-Samuels. 

Hawaii's offense would have been in good shape had Dru Brown not unexpectedly transferred to Oklahoma State, but I don't think it's going to be a massive drop off without him. The unit really can't be much worse than the one that only averaged 22.8 ppg last year. 

The other big key here is that while both offenses are working in new faces, neither of these teams have a lot coming back on the defensive side of the ball. Both stop units only have 5 starters back Colorado State is also working in a new defensive coordinator, so I definitely don't expect them to be sharp. 

All we need is for these two teams to average 2 touchdowns a quarter to secure a win and I think they have no problem doing that. Take the OVER! 

4* Alabama/Georgia Total NO BRAINER on Georgia OVER

The public perception here is that this is going to be a very low-scoring national championship game, as we have two teams that want to run the football and are considered to be elite on the defensive side of the ball. What gets overlooked is the talent that both of these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and that 44 points is an extremely low total for today's college game. 

Another thing that I think people fall into a trap with is how great these teams look defensively in the semifinals and forget that they have had over a month to prepare for those opponents. People were saying the same thing the last two years with Alabama and Clemson and both of those turned into shootouts. In fact, each of the first 3 title games since the playoffs was introduced has seen at least 62 points. All we need to get a win here is 45. That's less than 2 touchdowns a quarter. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Orange Bowl TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin UNDER

I think we have everything you want for a low-scoring game here in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown between Wisconsin and Miami. Both these teams are limited offensively, but are dominant on the defensive side of the ball. 

It's no secret that the Badgers offense is built on their ground game. Wisconsin ranked 21st in rushing (229.2 ypg) compared to just 97th in passing (187 ypg). Miami has a very talented and athletic defensive front 7 and I think it will make it very hard for the Badgers to run the ball effectively. As for the Hurricane's offense, it's had more than their fair share of problems. In the ACC Championship Game against Clemson, they only managed 3 points and 197 total yards. Wisconsin comes in with the No. 1 ranked defense in the country, allowing just 253.3 ypg, ranking 2nd against the run and 4th against the pass. 

UNDER is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games, including a 3-1-1 mark in their last 5 bowl games. UNDER is also 16-5 in Miami's last 21 games overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 bowl games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Hawaii Bowl Total NO BRAINER on Fresno State UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve, which features the Houston Cougars and Fresno State Bulldogs. There's a lot to like in this matchup when it comes to a low-scoring game. 

The Bulldogs are a perfect team to back when it comes to an UNDER. The Bulldogs feature one of the best defenses in the country that not many people know about. Fresno State finished 9th in the country, giving up just 17.2 ppg and were 16th in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg. Keep in mind that's with playing non-conference games against the likes of Washington and Alabama, where they allowed a combined 89 points and 917 yards. Take away those two teams and this team only surrendered around 296 ypg and 12.3 ppg against their other 11 opponents. 

Houston averaged 28.4 ppg, but were far from a great offensive team and I think the best supporter of that is they only had 16 points against Arizona and 24 against Texas Tech. A lot of their high-scoring games in the AAC game against teams that like to play at a fast pace, which increase the number of possessions. I think the Cougars have a really hard time scoring here, especially with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson having left the program to join Dan Mullen at Florida. 

As good as the Fresno State defense has been, there offense is very limited and really struggled to score against the better teams they played. Houston has a legit defense, led by one of the best defensive players in the country in Ed Oliver and should be able to keep them in check. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Bowl TOTAL OF THE MONTH  on Toledo UNDER

I think we have an inflated total here in the Dollar General Bowl. The public is going to see two teams that have put up some big numbers offensively behind two talented senior quarterbacks in Toledo's Logan Woodside and Appalachian State's Tyler Lamb. No question these two signal callers are talented, but I don't think the defenses are getting near enough respect here. 

The Mountaineers only gave up 21.9 ppg and showed well in non-conference play against two quality opponents. They limited Georgia to just 31 and 368 total yards on the road and Wake Forest to just 20 points and 344 total yards. Toledo allowed 24 or fewer points in 8 of their 13 games and I think they are more than capable of slowing down Appalachian State. While the Mountaineers put up big numbers in Sun Belt play, they only scored 10-points in that game against Georgia and 19 against the Demon Deacons. 

Another key factor here is that these two teams are going to be extremely familiar with one another, as they actually played against each other last bowl season. A game that only featured 59 points and that was with a 28-point outburst by the two teams in the 3rd quarter. Note that 7 of those 59 points came on a kickoff return for a TD. I just think given the familiarity here there's a good chance we see an even lower-scoring affair this time around. Take the UNDER! 

3* Birmingham Bowl Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech OVER

I think we are getting some great value here on the total in Saturday's Birmingham Bowl that features Texas Tech and South Florida. These are two high-powered offenses that like to play at a fast pace and aren't exactly stout on the defensive side of the ball. 

The Red Raiders put up 34.3 ppg and were 17th in the country at 468.4 ypg. USF was even better at 38.3 ppg and ranked 9th in total offense at 508.7 ypg. We also have two really good passing attacks going up against defenses that are much better at stopping the run than they are the pass, which I believe is going to lead to a lot of big plays and quick scores. 

I believe a big reason this total isn't north of 70 is the fact that the Bulls have a good defense, at least on paper. USF only gave up 22.5 ppg and ranked 28th in the nation, allowing just 342.6 ypg. Those are very misleading numbers, as the Bulls played a cupcake schedule, which included a lot of bad teams that struggled to score, including San Jose State, UConn, Illinois, Cincinnati and Tulane. The one legit offense they faced was in their last game of the season against UCF and they allowed 49 points in a game that featured 91 combined points. I think that's a lot closer to what we are going to see here. Take the OVER! 

3* Bahamas Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on UAB UNDER

This might seem like a low total given that Ohio comes in ranked 8th in the country at 40.6 ppg and are facing a UAB team that averages a respectable 29.6 ppg. I just think that given the style of  play of these two teams they will struggle to eclipse this total. 

Both of these teams are are looking to establish the run and don't offer much of a passing threat. The Bobcats ranked 17th in rushing at 244.2 ypg, compared to just 97th in passing at 186.8 ypg. The Blazers were 37th in rushing at 190.2 ypg and 106th in passing at 174.4 ypg. I just don't think that there will be enough possessions for these two teams to light up the scoreboard. There's typically a lot less explosive plays on the ground than there are for teams that like to air it out and throw it deep.

At the same time, by running so much, the clock is going to be running constantly. Add in the extra time that each team has had to prepare for these fairly one dimensional offenses and I wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a defensive battle. Keep in mind that these two have to average more than two touchdowns a quarter to eclipse this mark. 

UNDER was 7-1 in the Blazers last 8 games this season and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 8-3-1 in the Bobcats last 12 games played on a neutral field and 18-7-2 in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* Boca Raton Bowl Total NO-BRAINER  on Akron OVER

There's a strong tendency for these bowl games to go OVER the total and I think we are going to see a very high scoring game tonight between Akron and FAU. We are expecting the Owls to do the heavy lifting here, though we also expect the Zips to have a strong showing on the offensive side of the ball. 

Florida Atlantic comes in averaging 39.8 ppg and have a big advantage with this bowl game being played on their home field, where they put up 42 ppg and 535 ypg in the regular season. Akron simply doesn't have the defense to slow down this offensive attack. The Zips are 100th in the country against the run, giving up 197.2 ypg and will be facing an Owls offensive attack that ranked 6th in the nation with 283.2 ypg on the ground. FAU is also a fast-striking offense and it wouldn't shock me to see them have close to 40 points in the 3rd quarter. 

Akron's offense isn't anything special, but I think they can score close to 30 here, and don't be surprised if a lot of those points come late after this one is out of hand. The Zips have a decent passing attack that likes to throw deep, which should lead to some quick scores, as they face an FAU defense that was much better against the run than the pass. The Owls finished a mere 92nd against the pass, giving up 242.5 ypg. Give me the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Wisconsin UNDER

I like the value here the total in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game between Ohio State and Wisconsin. I just think the mark here has been set way too high for this matchup. I know the Badgers have had an easy schedule and haven't faced a lot of great offenses, but this defense has been up to the task and I think they are for real on that side of the ball. As good as the Buckeyes have been offensively, I think they struggle here. 

While Ohio State put up great offensive numbers on the season, they did a lot of their damage against bad teams. This is also a team that only scored 16 on a Oklahoma defense that allowed 52 in a game and 30 or more 5 times. I just think that if you can take away the Buckeyes ground game, there offense struggles to move the ball. J.T. Barrett is not a great pocket passer and gets a lot of his big plays throwing deep against teams that have to load the box to stop the run. Wisconsin ranked 1st in the country, giving up only 80.5 ypg on the ground and held teams to just 2.6 yards/carry. 

The other key here is that even if the Buckeyes are able to move, I don't think they score enough to push this over the mark. That's because I think the Badgers are going to have a miserable time running the ball. Wisconsin relies even more than Ohio State on the running game and the Buckeyes are simply too good up front on the defensive line to get pushed around. Urban Meyer and his defense will take away the running game and I just don't think Hornibrook can make enough plays for the Badgers to put together more than a few scoring drives. Take the UNDER 52! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Duke OVER

I think we are getting some decent value here with this total, as I see these two teams combining for at least 60 points on Saturday. Wake Forest has scored at least 30 in 4 straight games, including a 64 point outburst at Syracuse a couple weeks ago. Duke's offense snapped out of a major funk with 43 in their last game against Georgia Tech. With not a ton here for the Demon Deacons to play for, I don't see them being at the top of their game defensively here and they have  struggled on that side of the ball, giving up 38.3 ppg over their last 3. 

We also have a strong system in play. The OVER is 144-81 (64%) in the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 56.5 to 63 in the month of November with a team that's failed to cover 2 of their last 3. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on MISSOURI UNDER

I just think we are seeing an inflated total here based on Missouri lighting up the scoreboard over their last 5 games, but those all came against either bad teams or teams that have thrown in the towel on this season. I think they have a lot harder time scoring on the road against a motivated Razorback defense that will have a little extra fight on senior day. 

Most people focus on all the points Missouri is scoring, but they have been lights out defensively as well of late. The Tigers have held each of their last 4 opponents to 17 points or less. Arkansas is far from a potent offense and aren't exactly clicking right now, having scored just 31 in their last two games combined. 

UNDER is 12-3 in Arkansas' last 15 home games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. UNDER is also 10-2 in Missouri's last 12 off a SU win by more than 20 points, 14-5 in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record and 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Thanksgiving Total NO BRAINER on Ole Miss UNDER

We are getting great value here with the UNDER in Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown between these two SEC West and in-state rivals. This total is calling for these two teams to score close to 70 points and I just don't see it happening. 

Mississippi State's defense didn't play great last week and still managed to hold Arkansas to just 21 points. It continued a trend of dominance on defense against the lesser teams in the SEC and there's no question that Ole Miss falls into that category. Not to mention we just saw the Rebels struggle against a quality defense at home last week, scoring just 24 against Texas A&M and this Bulldog defense is a class above the Aggies. 

Another key factor here is that the defensive intensity is going to be turned up a notch for both sides with this being a rivalry game. I know Mississippi State put up 55 on the Rebels last year, but that should only add fuel to fire for the Rebels and I'm willing to bank they show up and keep the Bulldogs from putting up anywhere close to that many points. 

UNDER is 22-8 in the Rebels last 30 road games after winning 2 of their last 3. It's also 20-8 in Mississippi State's last 28 off a came where they won but failed to cover as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ball State UNDER

I know the Cardinals defense hasn't been any good and that the OVER has cashed in each of Ball State's last 5 games. I believe it's created some value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's game against Miami (OH). The big key here is I just don't see the RedHawks being motivated at all for this one, as last week's 24-27 home loss to Eastern Michigan eliminated Miami (OH) from becoming bowl eligible.

The RedHawks could also be without their top two running backs, as both Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young are listed as questionable. Without the Miami putting up a big number, it's going to be hard for this one to eclipse the mark set by the books, as this Ball State offense is one of the worst in the country, as they come in averaging just 18.9 ppg and 331 ypg. I look for both teams to just go through the motions here, as the players likely can't wait to get this season over with. 

UNDER is also 11-1 in the RedHawks last 12 off a SU loss and 25-9 in their last 34 against bad defensive teams who are allowing 31 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Thurs TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo OVER

For whatever reason the books have repeatedly set the bar way to low on the total for Ball State games. Last week their total was 49.5 against Northern Illinois and the game finished with 80 combined points. The game before they combined for 70 with a total of 47.5. The game before that saw 73 with a total of 55.5 and the contest before that their was 65 with a total of 48.5. 

I think we are once again going to see the total fly over the mark and it all stems from the Cardinals defense. Ball State is horrific on that side of the ball and even average offenses like Buffalo can score at will against it. The Cardinals have allowed 55 or more points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Buffalo just scored 38 last week and had 68 in a game earlier this season against Northern Illinois. I think the Bulls score close to 50 and we should at least get 14 from the home team. Take the OVER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS 

3* NCAAF Thurs. Total DESTROYER on Ball State UNDER

This is simply too many points for Thursday's MAC matchup that has Northern Illinois hosting Ball State. The reason we are seeing such a big total is the fact that the Cardinals have allowed 50+ points in each of their last 3 games, but the key here is the Huskies just aren't a dynamic offensive team, as they are only averaging 26.7 ppg. Conditions are also not going to be ideal for scoring, as temps will be right around freezing with a blistering 10+ mph wind. 

At the same time the Ball State offense is atrocious, as they come in averaging a mere 12.4 ppg on the road. Scoring won't come any easier against this Northern Illinois defense, which is only giving up 15.7 ppg at home this season and have been dominant against bad teams like the Cardinals. 

UNDER is 6-1 in the Huskies last 7 home games and a staggering 13-3 in their last 16 games played in the month of November.

Adding to this is a great system where we look to take the UNDER with bad teams like Ball State who have struggled to cover. UNDER is 80-38 (68%) going back to 1992 when you have a team that comes in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 playing on a Thursday. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Diego State UNDER

I don't see this one coming close to the total that's been set by the books, as Saturday's late night MWC action features two of the worst offenses in the country in San Diego State and San Jose State. The Aztecs are 83rd in the country in scoring at 26.2 ppg and the Spartans are 120th at a dreadful 18.9 ppg. San Diego State also ranks 98th in total offense and San Jose State is 117th. 

Now I could see the Aztecs eclipsing their average, as this Spartans defense isn't very good. However, I don't see them going off, as they are struggling on the offensive side of the ball right now, scoring just 45 points in their last 3 games combined. 

At the same time, we are still going to be in great shape if San Diego State has a big offensive game, as there's a decent chance the Spartans don't reach double-digits. The Aztecs have a top tier defense that is allowing just 15.2 ppg and 255 ypg at home this season. San Jose State has also scored 13 or fewer points in 4 separate games this year. 

UNDER is 27-11-1 in the Aztecs last 39 games vs a team with a losing record, 31-14 in their last 45 road games after going UNDER the total in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games when they come in having failed to cover 2 out of their last 3. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Oregon UNDER

I think we are going to see a much more competitive and low-scoring game than what the books are anticipating. While it's still got some holes, this Oregon defense is greatly improved over last year's team, which allowed 41.4 ppg and 518 ypg. So far through 9 games the Ducks are allowing just 29.2 ppg and 370 ypg. 

I also like the matchup here for Oregon. Washington's offense is built around their running game and that plays right into the strength of the Ducks defense, which comes in 16th nationally, allowing just 117.6 ypg. We can also expect a max effort here from Oregon, as they are out for revenge from last year's embarrassing 21-70 home loss to the Huskies. 

As for the Ducks offense, they could get back starting quarterback Justin Herbert, but I don't see them lighting up the scoreboard on the road against an elite Washington defense, which comes in 4th in the country, giving up just 12.1 ypg and 2nd in total defense at 236.2 ypg. They also matchup well with Oregon's run-first attack, as they are 2nd in the nation vs the run, giving up just 71.6 ypg and are only allowing 2.2 yards/carry. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Stanford UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER given the conditions here are going to be ideal for a low-scoring game. The expected game-time temperature is just above freezing at 34 degrees and there's a chance for freezing rain. That's certainly not ideal for a Washington State offense that is more reliant on their passing game than any other team in the country. The Cougars are 129th out of 130 teams in rushing at 84.1 ypg and lead the nation in passing at 386.7 ypg. 

At the same time, the strength of this Stanford defense is their secondary, which has allowed a mere 159 yards through the air in their last two games and held each of their last 4 opponents to under 240 yards passing. 

As for the Cardinals offense I think there's a good chance they are once again without star running back Bryce Love. He's listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision, but hasn't been practicing and even if he does play figures to be at less than 100%. Stanford's offense was putrid without him in their last game against Oregon State, scoring just 15 points. This is also a very good Washington State defense, that ranks 16th in total defense, giving up only 309 ypg and are allowing just 16.8 ppg at home. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on UAB UNDER

I just don't think there's enough offensive fire-power here to eclipse this mark set by the books. Rice is simply one of the worst offensive teams in the country. The Owls are 129th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 13.1 ppg and 121st in total offense at just 315.7 ypg. UAB isn't a great defensive team by any means, but are good enough to shut down Rice. The Blazers are only giving up 18.7 ppg at home. 

The biggest thing here is neither of these teams are any good at throwing the ball, which means a lot of run plays. That will keep the clock running and limit the number of possessions for both sides. Rice is 120th in passing at 148.4 ypg and UAB is 98th at 188.9 ypg. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 home games and 40 in their last 4 overall. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Owls last 6 off a game where they didn't cover and 3-0-1 in their last 4 on the road. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Houston UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Saturday's AAC matchup that has Houston hosting East Carolina. I just feel the total here is way to high for this matchup. East Carolina's defense has allowed 50+ on 4 different occasions, but are coming off their best showing, holding BYU to 17 in their last game. 

The key here is the Cougars just aren't an explosive offensive team. They have only eclipsed 30 points in 3 of their 8 games this season and have not scored over 40 once. That includes a game against Texas Tech's horrific defense where they only managed 24 points.

Most of the teams that have exposed the Pirates defense have done so through the air. Houston has become more of a run first team of late, rushing 40 or more times in each of their last 4 games. Another key here for ECU's defense is they have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off their bye. I think that will be more than enough to keep this under the mark. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Cougars last 13 home games off a win, 20-9 in their last 29 when listed as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games on Saturday. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO BRAINER on FAU/Marshall UNDER

I think we are getting an inflated total here in Friday's C-USA East showdown between FAU and Marshall. Lane Kiffin and the Owls have been lighting it up on the offensive side of the ball inside conference play at 51.7 ppg. On the other side Marshall is coming off a game against FIU that had 71 combined points and have scored 30+ in each of their last 3. 

The books have no choice but to set the total here higher than it should be, as the public is going to look to pound the over with this being a prime time game. What's getting overlooked is just how big of a game this is. The winner of this game will be in a great position to win the East Division and play in the C-USA title game. 

I'm not saying these two teams aren't going to put up points, just not at the rate needed to eclipse this total. Unlike a lot of high-scoring teams that sling it all over the place, FAU is built around their rushing attack, which ranks 8th in the country at 295.9 ypg. I'm willing to bet they don't run all over the Herd, who own a top tier defense for a non-Group of 5 team. Marshall ranks 15th in scoring defense (17.6 ppg) and 24th in total defense (325.6 ypg). 

UNDER is 21-8 in Marshall's last 29 road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3, 11-3 in their last 14 in the second half of the season and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER ON BYU OVER 

These aren't exactly two teams most would consider taking the OVER with. BYU hasn't scored more than 24 in a game all season and San Jose State's 26 last week at Hawaii was it's most since scoring 34 in their opener against Cal Poly. 

It's not so much the offenses that I'm focused on but the defenses. This is the perfect opponent for the Cougars to take out some of that frustration on offense. The Spartans have allowed at least 27 in each of their last 6 games, 4 times allowing 40+. 

At the same time, BYU's defense has allowed 30+ two straight and 4 of their last 5. I don't see it getting any better for either of these teams down the stretch. Last time out, both teams suffered their 7th loss of the season, which pretty much wraps up any hopes of making a bowl game. I look for a bit of a shootout with this one going well past the mark. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cal UNDER

I expect a much lower-scoring game than what the books are calling for with this total. Cal is coming off a 44-45 loss to Arizona, which had a combined 99 points, but only 62 of those came in regulation. The week before they held Washington State's potent attack to just 3 points. Colorado was just shutout at Washington State and have now scored 23 or fewer in half of their games. 

I just think we have two defenses that have underachieved going up against a couple of limited offenses. Both teams are coming off a loss and still need two wins to become bowl eligible, so the intensity should be there on the defensive side. I got a little more concern with Colorado mentally, but being at home will help them. 

When Cal is coming off a high-scoring game like we have here, history struggling recommends playing the UNDER, as it's 33-18 in their last 51 after a contest that finished OVER the total set by the books. UNDER is also 16-5 in Colorado's last 21 games off a loss by more than 20 points and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Stanford OVER

The books have set the bar way to low for Thursday's Pac-12 action that has Stanford visiting Oregon State. I think the public perception here is that the Cardinal are going to just go into Corvallis and have their way with the Beavers. While I think Stanford will be able to put some points on the board, I think their defense will struggle in this spot. 

Oregon State comes in just 1-6 and are ranked 113th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 21.3 ppg. That's going to make it tough on Stanford to take them seriously, especially with a road game at Washington State looming next week. The thing is the Cardinal defense isn't great, they 98th against the run (195.4 ypg) and 68th vs the pass (220.6 ypg). 

Oregon State just played their first game after Gary Anderson stepped down and the offense took on a new life against Colorado. The Beavers piled on 280 rushing yards on 46 attempts (6.1 yards/carry) and senior Darell Garretson had his best game by a long shot with 289 yards on 20 of 37 passing. That performance will have them playing with a lot of confidence tonight and I expect a number of big plays to push this final score up closer to 70. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan OVER 

These two teams combined for 55 points a season ago and 70 the year before that. I know we have two good defensive teams, but let's not completely discount the offensive side of the ball. I think we get more than enough scoring here to push this past the small number set by the books. 

Northern Illinois' offense is coming in with a ton of confidence after putting up 48 points and more than 500 total yards last week at Bowling Green. Eastern Michigan scored just 17, but had nearly 460 yards of total offense (done in by 3 turnovers). With both defenses playing on short rest and the Huskies potentially not giving the Eagles their full attention with Toledo on deck, I think we could be closer to 60 than 50. 

OVER is 30-16 in Eastern Michigan's last 46 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 10-2 in their last 12 road games against an opponent that's outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play Colorado OVER 

I think we are getting great value here on the total at just 52 points. Forget what happened last week with Washington State. When the Cougars fail to show up for a game they do it in style. Just look at last year's bowl game against Minnesota and 17-45 loss to rival Washington. While the loss to Cal hurts, they still are in great shape to win the North and play in the Pac-12 title game. I expect this team to rebound and to do so in a big way. 

The Cougars have scored 45+ 3 times already this season and had 30+ in every other game prior to the letdown to the Bears. Cal's not an easy place to play and there's no reason to think they don't show up at home against a Colorado defense that has allowed 33 to Oregon State and 45 to Arizona in their last two games. 

I also think we get plenty of help from the Buffaloes on the scoreboard. This Washington State defense is good but not great. Colorado's offense is playing with a ton of confidence and I think they are going to keep pace with Washington St and make this a game into the 2nd half. 

OVER is 20-4 in Colorado's last 24 road games after 2 straight games with 1 or fewer turnovers and 5-1-1 in Washington State's last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Late Night Bookie DESTROYER Wyoming OVER

This is about as low of a total as you are going to see in college and I just don't think it's warranted. I know Boise State's defense has held BYU to 7 points and San Diego St to 14 in their last two games, but those aren't exactly high-powered offenses. The game prior to that they gave up 42 at home to Virginia. Wyoming's offense struggled early in the year, but have scored 28 in each of their last 3 games and put up 30 in a win over Boise State last year. 

Cowboys quarterback Josh Allen, who is an NFL prospect, threw for 274 yards and 3 scores last year against the Broncos. He's thrown the ball well in each of his last two games and I think he has another big game here. 

Wyoming's defense has good numbers but have struggled against the better offenses they have faced. They haven't held Boise State under 28 points since 2007 and if the Broncos hit 28, we only need 16 from Wyoming to eclipse this mark. I think we get more than that from Wyoming, who I could see winning this game outright. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Arizona Under 

This one has been set too high here by the books. I just don't see this being a shootout. Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, but they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg).

All the talk here is about the Wildcats new quarterback in Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 557 yards in the last two games. I think he's a good find for Arizona, but that was against Colorado, who ranks 99th in run defense and UCLA, who ranks 129th. Cal's defense isn't as good as it was last week against the Cougars, but it's going to put up better numbers at home and are better built to stop the run than the pass. I think they at least make Tate and the Arizona offense work for their points, which is going to eat up the clock with how much they like to run the ball. That should have this finishing closer to 50 than 60. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF No Limit TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State OVER

I like the value here with this low total and these two Big Ten teams going over the mark set by the books. It wouldn't be anything new, as the OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with a perfect 4-0 mark the last 4 times they have faced off in East Lansing. 

Michigan State should have no problem moving the chains and finishing off drives as they have the 40th ranked rushing attack at 192.2 ypg and will be up against a Indiana defense that ranks 79th against the run, giving up just over 170 ypg. The offensive numbers for the Spartans aren't great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that half of their games have been against Notre Dame, Michigan and Iowa. 

Indiana's offense should be able to provide enough here to push this over the mark. The Hoosiers put up 20 on Michigan last week and 21 against Ohio State. I think they can get to at least 20 here and the Spartans should be able to do the rest. 

OVER is 35-15 in Michigan State's last 50 games when they enter having covered the spread in at least 4 of their last 6 and 40-16 in Indiana's last 56 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah OVER

I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should, due to the fact that Arizona State is coming off a 13-7 win at home over Washington. Everything went right for the Sun Devils in that one and I'm banking on their defense returning to form and giving up a bunch of points. Prior to holding the Huskies to 7-points, Arizona State had allowed at least 30 points in each of their previous 11 games. 

It's still not official, but Utah's offense could be getting a big boost with the return of starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. If he plays this thing should fly over the mark, but I still think we get to 57 rather easily if he doesn't 

Both of these defenses are in huge letdown spots. While the Sun Devils were laying it all on the line against USC, the Utes were at USC and suffered a crushing 27-28 loss. These two teams combined for 75 points a year ago and that was with an identical total of 56 points. 

Utah's defense strength has been stopping the run under Whittingham, but they can be attacked through the air. In fact, the OVER is 12-4 the last 16 times the Utes have faced a poor rushing team that is averaging 3.25 or less yards/carry and these games have averaged over 62 points. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Florida St UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Florida State. These totals with the Cardinals have been inflated all season and I think it's definitely inflated here after they combined for 87 points last week against Boston College. The number here is also high due to the fact these two teams combined for 83 last year with Louisville accounting for 63. 

I just don't see that kind of offensive output this time around. While Lamar Jackson has great numbers, this Louisville team isn't as good as it was last year. Defenses have a much better game-plan for Jackson and we have seen him struggle against the two best defenses he's faced in Clemson and NC State. I put this FSU defense right up there with those two. 

At the same time, this isn't just another game for the Seminoles defense. Don't think for a second they have forgot about what Jackson and company did to them last year. The 63 points that Louisville scored was the most points ever allowed by a Florida State team. This defense has had this came circled and I expect them to play their best game of the season. 

On the other side of this, Florida State's offense continues to struggle without starting quarterback Deondre Francois. They had 425 total yards last week against Duke and only managed 17 points. They are 122nd in the country at 18.2 ppg. I know the Louisville defense isn't playing very well, but I think they can keep this offense from going off and that should have us well below the mark here set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

3* Lafayette/Arkansas St Sun Belt DESTROYER on Lafayette UNDER

These weekday Sun Belt games are much lower-scoring than the overall numbers would suggest. So while we have two defenses that are near the bottom of the country in yards allowed, I expect this to go under the high total that's been set here. One of the reasons the defensive numbers are so bad for these teams is the big programs they play in non-conference. Lafayette played both Tulsa and Texas A&M and Arkansas State had to face both Nebraska and SMU. 

A prime example of how much lower-scoring these games can be is last week's contest with Lafayette against Texas State. The total was 55 and getting pounded by the public, yet the game finished with a final score of 24-7. The previous week the Ragin' Cajuns scored just 21 against Idaho. Arkansas State has allowed just 25 and 17 points in their two conference games. 

UNDER is 10-2-1 in Lafayette's last 13 conference games and 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. UNDER is also 11-4-1 in Arkansas State's last 16 overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Stanford OVER

The books have completely missed the mark here in Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between Stanford and Oregon. I believe the reason this total is so low is the fact that the Ducks offense was a no show last week against Washington State without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. Oregon managed just 10 points and 277 total yards. 

Not a big surprise when you look back at it. The Cougars have an elite defense and took full advantage of the fact that Oregon had to start a true freshman in Braxton Burmeister. Last week backup Tayler Alie wasn't available, but he's good to go and wouldn't be shocked if he started. Either way, I expect Burmeister to play well if he gets the nod. 

That's because the Ducks will have a much easier time moving the ball on the ground against a struggling Stanford defense. This is not your typical Cardinal stop unit, as they come in ranked 91st against the run (182.0 ypg) and 101st against the pass (251.8 ypg). Oregon still ranks 19th in the country in rushing at 239.3 ypg and had scored at least 35 in each of their previous 5 games. 

It won't just be the Ducks scoring early and often, Stanford's offense has come to life with sophomore K.J. Costello getting more reps at quarterback. They also have the nation's best running back in Bryce Love, who comes into this game with 1,240 rushing yards, which is almost 250 more yards than the next best. While Oregon's defense is improved from last year, they have allowed 30+ to the likes of Nebraska, Arizona State and Washington State. Expect Stanford to do the same. 

OVER is 10-1-1 in Oregon's last 11 following a double-digit loss at home and 45-19-2 in their last 66 off a loss by more than 20. OVER is also 5-0 in the Cardinal's last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on North Texas UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Saturday's C-USA showdown between UTSA and North Texas. The Roadrunners joined C-USA in 2013 and these two teams have been in the same division. Each of the previous 4 meetings have not seen more than 61 points and I expect that trend to continue.

This is a big time game for the Mean Green, as most have labeled UTSA as the team to beat in the West. I expect a big time effort here from North Texas at home in this spot, especially with the game being played under the lights. 

The Roadrunners come in averaging 35.2 ppg, but most of the damage came against a couple of bad teams. They scored 51 on Southern and 44 against Texas State. They only managed 17 in their opener against Baylor and just 29 last week against Southern Miss. I think North Texas can keep them around that 30 point mark. 

As for UTSA's defense, it's been really good to start the season. In fact, the Roadrunners come in ranked 9th in the nation, giving up just 270 ypg and a mere 4.8 yards/play. It's by far the best defense the Mean Green have seen outside of Iowa, who they only managed 14 points against. 

UNDER is 15-5 in North Texas' last 20 games off a conference win by 10 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 when they come in having won two straight against conference opponents. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma UNDER

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in Saturday's Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas. I just feel the total here has been inflated given the fact that Oklahoma has allowed 41 to Baylor and 38 to ISU in their last two games, as well as the fact that Texas is coming off a high-scoring game against Kansas State. Not to mention these two combined for 85 in last year's matchup. 

Each of the previous 3 meetings in the series all had a combined score of 57 or less and I think that's a lot closer to what the total should be in this one. I know these two teams have some big time weapons on offense, but a game of this magnitude almost always sides to the defense. Despite the poor showings of late, Oklahoma comes in ranked 44th in total defense and Texas is sitting at 42nd. 

This is still the same Sooners defense that held Ohio State's potent offense to just 16 points earlier this season. I think they went in with big heads against the Bears and Cyclones, but will be 100% locked in here, especially off that unthinkable upset loss at home to ISU. Keep Texas' offense wasn't great in their previous two games, scoring just 24 against USC and a mere 17 on the road against Iowa State. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Longhorns last 14 when coming into a game off a win and a perfect 7-0 the last two years after playing their previous two against conference opponents. UNDER is also 21-7 in Texas' last 28 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Sooners last 6 games played on a neutral field. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DOMINATOR' on Purdue UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's Big Ten matchup between Minnesota and Purdue. The Gophers were just upset at home by Maryland 31-24 for their first loss of the season. It was almost as if Minnesota didn't take the Terps seriously because they were down to a 3rd string QB that really struggled in their previous game. 

Fleck knows how to get the troops ready and he will have had the Gophers full attention in practice this week. I look for Minnesota to really come out strong on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind this defense had allowed a total of 24 points in their first 3 games combined. Purdue's offense is limited, totaling just 189 yards against the Wolverines. 

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country under first year head coach Jeff Brohm. This team competed in a 7-point loss to Louisville, made easy work of Ohio and Missouri and had a lead on Michigan at the half before fading late. 

I look for the Boilermakers defense to really make it hard on the Gophers offense, which is pretty limited to start with. Minnesota has no real threat of a passing game, as they rank 100th in the country at a mere 187 ypg. While running the ball is their focus, they are just 58th in rushing at 180.8 ypg. Purdue's defense has had their struggles against the pass, but rank in the top 50 against the run, only giving up 132 ypg (allowed 238 ypg last year). They also have had two full weeks to prepare for Minnesota off their bye. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Sharp Money 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Penn State UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's Penn State/Northwestern matchup. The fact that both these teams played in a game last week that saw more than 53 points, will certainly have the public looking to back the OVER. 

The thing is, both of those games that these two teams played in were fortunate to eclipse 50 points. The Nittany Lions had 2 non-offensive touchdowns in a 28 point 1st quarter. They also had a stretch of close to 25 minutes of game time where they didn't score at all. They only had 370 total yards and 20 first downs. Keep in mind they only had 21 the previous week against Iowa. 

Northwestern really made life easy on the Badgers. Wisconsin had just one scoring drive where they had to go more than 50 yards, plus added a defensive touchdown. There was also 16 garbage points scored in the final 5 minutes. The Wildcats only finished that game with 244 total yards and it's not the first time they have struggled. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg. 

Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). On the flip side of this, I look for Northwestern's defense to compete enough here to keep this well below the mark. Take the UNDER! 

5* American Athletic 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Memphis UNDER

This is just too many points for these two teams. UConn is coming of back-to-back games where they combined for at least 77 points, but that was against the likes of East Carolina and SMU, who aren't known for their defense. This still still the same offense that scored 7-points in the 1st half at home against Holy Cross and just 18 at Virginia. 

I know Memphis' has some poor numbers defensively, but a big reason for that is they have faced two big time offenses in UCLA and UCF. I'm not saying they will be able to shutdown this UConn offense, but I do think they can get off the field and make the Huskies work for every point they do get. 

As for the Connecticut defense, they will have their work cut out for them, but they should be a little better than normal at home in a prime time matchup like this, where they know a lot of people will be tuning in because it's one of just two college games on the schedule Friday. Memphis also has consistently shot themselves in the foot, as they have 9 turnovers in their first 4 games, including 4 last week in their first road game of the season. 

UNDER is 35-17 in the Tigers' last 52 road games against conference opponents, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring fewer than 20 points. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Huskies last 5 home games against a team with a winning home record, 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 200+ rushing yards in their last game and 18-8 in their last 26 off a loss. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DESTROYER' on Iowa UNDER

This has the makings of a low-scoring game, as we have two teams that like to grind it out offensively with their running game and are stout on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan State comes in ranked 9th in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg and are 31st in rushing at 220.7 ypg. Iowa isn't ranked as high defensively or in the running game, but watching this team play that defensive front is very good and they got one of the top backs in the country behind a really good offensive line.

There's also a ton a familiarity between these two teams, as Mark Dantonio is in his 11th year with Michigan State and Kirk Ferentz is going on his 19th year at Iowa. Both teams run similar schemes as they have in the past and that's a big advantage for both defenses. The last time these two teams played was the 2015 Big Ten title game and the final score was 16-13. Only once in the last 7 seasons have these two combined for more than 44 points. 

UNDER is 23-12 in the Hawkeyes last 35 as a underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 15-6 in their last 21 road games against a team that is allowing 310 or less yards/game. UNDER is also 14-5 in Michigan State's last 19 home games as a favorite of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on South Florida UNDER

I think the value here is clearly with the UNDER on this massive total for Saturday's action between East Carolina and South Florida. The Bulls have a high-powered offense that has scored 30+ in all 4 games this season and will be taking on a ECU defense that has allowed at least 34 in all 4 of their games, including 64 to Va Tech. 

I just don't see the Bulls being 100% focused for this one after a couple of prime time weekday games the last two weeks against Illinois and Temple. It's not like we haven't seen them come out flat before. Just look back to their opener when they trailed San Jose State 16-0 after 1 quarter. Add in this being a road game and early start time, I think we get a USF team that just goes through the motions. 

East Carolina figures to get for this game and we will need them to put up some kind of resistance here. I just don't think the offense will be able to do enough here to push this over the mark. All the attention goes to South Florida's offense, but the defense is playing lights out as well. The Bulls  rank 13th in the country, allowing just 263.8 ypg and are 3rd against the run (66 ypg). 

UNDER is 25-10-1 in the Bulls last 36 against a team with a losing record and 17-8-1 in their last 26 on the road. UNDER is also 11-4 in East Carolina's last 15 conference games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total 'HEAVY HITTER' on Rice OVER

I think the books have really set the bar too low with the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Pittsburgh and Rice. The Panthers come in having scored just 14, 21 and 17 points over their last 3 games, but those came against Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. 

Needless to say Pitt's offense is looking forward to this one, as they take on an Owls defense that is giving up 37.0 ppg and 472 ypg (88th). That's with half their games against UTEP and FIU, where they held them both to 14 or less. They gave up 62 in their opener against Stanford. While they only gave up 38 to Houston, that's only because the Cougars took their foot off the gas. Houston had 38 points with 4 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter. 

I don't think it's out of the question that the Panthers cover this total on their own, but I do think there's a good chance here the Owls contribute to this total. Rice will be facing a Pitt defense that ranks 114th in the country, ranking outside the Top 100 against both the run and the pass. Even if Rice struggles early, they should be able to score late when it gets out of hand. Take the OVER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

5* NCAAF Big Ten 'TOTAL OF THE YEAR' Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER

I really like the value here with UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten clash between Northwestern and Wisconsin. These are two teams that take a lot of pride on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin features one of the elite units in the country.

The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in their loss at Duke, where they scored just 17 points and finished with 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts. 

Northwestern's defense isn't on the same level as the Badgers and actually comes in giving up some big numbers against both the run and the pass, but came out with a different attitude after that blowout loss to the Blue Devils. Factor in they are coming off a bye and I like their chances of keeping what I feel is a pretty average Wisconsin in check. The Wildcats also have a history of not letting the Badgers get going offensively, as they have held them to 21 or fewer points each of the last 3 seasons. In the last 3 games, the highest combined total was 44 and I don't see them getting there this year. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Northwestern's last 10 games in the month of September, 8-1 in their last 9 off a home win and 11-3 in their last 14 off a cover. UNDER is also a perfect 9-0 in Wisconsin's last 9 games after they put together 2 straight dominant performances where they had 34 or more minutes in time of possession and 24+ first downs. Take the UNDER! 

4* Illinois/Nebraska Friday Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER

I'm expecting a very boring and low-scoring Big Ten affair Friday night between Nebraska and Illinois. Both of these teams are struggling offensively out of the gate. The Cornhuskers come in ranked 90th in the country in total offense at just 378.5 ypg. The Fighting Illini are even worst, as they come in 121st in total offense at 179.7 ypg (rank outside Top 100 in both rushing and passing). 

Nebraska was able to put up some points in their first two games against Arkansas State and Oregon, but a lot of that had to do with the lackluster defense on the other side and the pace of the game. Neither of these teams tonight are looking to push the tempo and I expect to see a lot more punts than drives that end in points. 

I know Illinois' defensive numbers aren't great, as they are 101st in total defense. The thing is, a lot of that came from that ugly loss to USF, who is one of the better teams in the country with some electric playmakers on offense. They held a decent Ball State offense to just 21 in their opener and a WKU offense to just 7 in game 2. Given Nebraska's problems offensively and this being a home night game, I think we see an inspired Illinois defense that delivers a solid performance. That should be more than enough to keep this below the mark. 

UNDER is 10-2 in Nebraska's last 12 conference games and 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 20 or less in their previous game. UNDER is also in Illinois' last 6 after giving up 40+ points, 14-5 in their last 19 at home and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. Take the UNDER! 

4* ISU/Texas Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Iowa State UNDER 

I think the value here is with the UNDER in Thursday's Big 12 matchup between Iowa State and Texas. Each of the last two meetings in this series have been very low scoring. In 2015, last time they played at ISU, the two combined for 24 points. Last year in Texas they only managed to combine for 33. 

I do think it's going to be a little more high-scoring than each of those, but we got a lot of wiggle room with this total. For the two to eclipse this mark, they are going to have average roughly 16 points, which is basically 2 touchdowns and a field goal each period. I just don't think we see that much scoring here. 

Keep in mind that both of these teams were off last week, so each has had extra time to prepare for the opponent. That's typically a bigger edge for the defenses, as they really can get into the tendencies of each team. Add in the extra energy level with this being a prime time game on Thursday night in front of an ESPN audience and we should see both offenses struggle to get going. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Texas' last 10 overall, 25-9 in their last 34 against the Big 12 and 20-6 in their last 26 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Prime Time 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Iowa/Penn St UNDER

Late edition here with the UNDER in tonight's Big Ten showdown between Penn State and Iowa. These two teams played last year and combined for 55 and that was with the Nittany Lions hanging 41 on the Hawkeyes. I just don't see Penn State being able to have that same kind of success offensively against a good and fired up Iowa defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans in a rare night game. 

Iowa's defense is allowing less than 100 yards on the ground (97 ypg) and holding teams to a half-yard below their average. They also are allowing opposing QBs to complete just 57.4 % of their passes. Penn State is only allowing 3 yards/carry against the run and if you can slow down Iowa's rushing attack they really have a hard time sustaining drives. 

Iowa knows they have to avoid the big plays and make Penn State work for everything they get. We saw Pittsburgh hold them to just 312 yards a couple weeks back and I think this Hawkeyes defense is way better than the Panthers. I just see both teams having a hard time here getting the offense going and see this one finishing closer to 45 than 55. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Missouri/Auburn UNDER 

I really like the value here with Saturday's SEC cross matchup between Auburn and Missouri staying under the total. Missouri's offense turned some heads in their opener, which saw them hang 72 against Missouri St, but that proved to be just them taking advantage of a bad team. 

Since that huge offensive outburst, Missouri has totaled a mere 13 points at home to Auburn and 3 to Purdue (only 203 total yards). Now the Tigers go against the best defense they will have seen in Auburn, who is currently 2nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 201.7 ypg. That's no fluke either, as they held Clemson to just 14-points and 281 total yards. I just don't see any way that Missouri scores more than 14 on the road and wouldn't be shocked if they didn't score a point. 

If Missouri was able to get to 14, Auburn would have to score 47 for us to lose. I just don't see that happening. Auburn's highest output this year is 41 and last week they only managed 24 against Mercer. With a potentially huge game looming on deck at home against Miss St, I don't see Auburn running up the score either. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Auburn's last 16 games overall and 11-3 in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. UNDER is also 13-4 in Missouri's last 17 conference games and 8-1 in their last 9 after 2 straight games where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on N Ill/Nebraska UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this one. Like a lot of the midwest teams, Nebraska and Northern Illinois are built on the running game. At least that's how they want to play. The Cornhuskers had to throw it 41 times vs Oregon and Tanner Lee was 19 of 41 with 4 picks. The Huskies had to throw it against BC and were just 16 of 39 passing.

I believe both will be able to at least move the chains on the ground, but will have to work for it. That's going to lead to a lot more time running off the clock between plays (less stoppage on first downs) and fewer possessions. Exactly what we are looking for when playing the UNDER. 

I also like this spot for Northern Illinois' defense, as they catch Nebraska in a letdown spot after that huge game against Oregon last week. Key here is the Huskies have the talent and coaching to make this a dogfight and possibly pull off the upset. 

The big concern with the under is the fact that Nebraska has allowed 36 to Arkansas and 42 to Oregon. I just don't think Northern Illinois is the kind of offense that can put up those kind of numbers. Arkansas St threw it 68 times for 415 yards and Oregon's talent and tempo are going to put up points against just about every defense. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Week Night 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Boise St/New Mexico UNDER

The books have made a big mistake here with this total. I don't see near enough offense given the circumstance for this to eclipse the mark set by the books. What is going to get overlooked by a lot of people with Boise State is just how good their defense has played. They see they just allowed 47 to Washington State last week. However, 16 of those came in OT and they didn't give up a TD to a great Cougars offense until the 4th quarter. Not to mention the offense aided Wash St with an interception that was returned for a TD. 

That also happened in their opener against Troy, when another pick-six was thrown. Keep in mind they held a good Trojans offense to just 6 points and 215 total yards. Now they face a New Mexico team that went into the 4th quarter last week trailing their in-state rival 30-5. Sure they rallied to make it 28-30 and actually could have tied it had they converted a 2-pt play. I think that has a lot more to do with the Aggies letting their foot off the gas and it nearly biting them. 

Given how the Broncos just had one of the more tougher losses to swallow you will find all season, the fact that they will be constantly reminded of loss at home to New Mexico last time they were here and this is a nationally televised game (only one on the schedule) at home with new uniforms, I expect the defensive intensity to be there. 

The key here is the offense for Boise State doesn't figure to be scoring every time they touch the ball. Starting QB Brett Rypien is hurt and it looks like he won't play. That limits the playbook some. As long as we can avoid a bunch of non-offensive scores, I think this finishes closer to 45 than 60. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Georgia Tech/Tennessee UNDER

I don't think there will be enough offensive fireworks for these two teams to eclipse this total in Monday's Labor Day primetime matchup. Both teams have a lot of experience and talent back on the defensive side of the ball. Tennessee returns 7 starters and several others who got playing time after they were hit hard with injuries on this side of the ball last year.

A lot of people are going to see they gave up 5.0 yard/carry and over 200 yards/game on the ground and think Georgia Tech is going to run all over them. I'm not buying it. If you look back at the first 5 games when Tennessee was 5-0 and were still relatively healthy, they played the run very well. You also can't ignore the fact that Georgia Tech has to replace talented starting QB Justin Thomas, who was one of the better passers in the Paul Johnson era. 

As for the Volunteers offense, they too have to replace a talented starting QB in Joshua Dobbs, as well as two really gifted backs in Kamara and Hurd and star wide out Malone. Not to mention they are learning a new system under first year OC Larry Scott. 

We know Georgia Tech is going to run the football and I expect Tennessee to do the same behind one of the more talented o-lines in the country. That's ideal for a low scoring game, as each team will eat up clock and possessions will be limited. Take the UNDER! 

3* Situational Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Troy/Boise St OVER 

I believe the real value in Saturday's clash between the Troy Trojans and the Boise State Broncos is on it going over the total.

Boise State averaged 33.8 ppg and 473 ypg last year and that’s one of their lower totals in recent seasons. I look for an uptick offensively in 2017. The offense will be firmly in the hands of junior starting QB Brett Rypien. A two time 1st-Team All-MWC signal caller with a 44-16 TD-INT ratio in his first two seasons.

He’s going to have to do more with the loss of star running back Jeremy McNichols (314 attempts, 1,709 yards, 23 TDs). That means bigger chunk plays and series that don't eat up a ton of clock.

I'm not concerned with the fact that Troy held opponents to just 22.1 ppg last year. That’s aided by playing in the Sun Belt. While they return 6 starters on defense, they have to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. They are going to take a step back, plus you have to factor in playing on the road in a tough environment. 

The key here is that I fully expect the Trojans offense to hold their own against the Broncos. Troy likes to play with some pace. Not a big surprise given their head coach use to be the OC at Texas Tech. They put up 33.7 ppg and 430 ypg last year, including 24 points and 386 yards against a dominant Clemson defense.

Boise State always fields a respectable defense, but with only 4 starters back in 2017, this figured to be one of their weaker units. They also haven’t been as good since former head coach Chris Petersen left for Washington. Keep in mind that this is now the 4th year removed from Petersen and his recruits.

OVER is 40-15 in the Trojans last 55 non-conference games and 22-9 in their last 31 road games in the month of September. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on South Carolina UNDER

I just feel the books have set the total too high for this non-conference showdown between two Power 5 programs. South Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, but this is a team that doesn't figure to push the tempo and only averaged 20.8 ppg last year and that was with them scoring 34 against UMass and 44 against Western Carolina. They managed 14 or fewer points in 7 games. 

I think the Gamecocks will struggle to score here against an NC State team that should have one of the best defenses in the country. They certainly have one of the most talented defensive lines, which is going to give even the best offensive lines trouble and SC is far from elite upfront. 

The Gamecocks were respectable on the defensive side of the ball and I look for them to give NC State some trouble here. The Wolfpack are more conventional on offense, not trying to play at a ridiculous pace and air it out on every play. They only average 27 ppg last year, scoring 20 or fewer in 6 games. They get a lot back but I don't see them exploding against a SEC defense. Take the UNDER!

5*  NCAAF Vegas 'NO LIMIT' Total Top Play on Memphis UNDER 67

The forecast for this game is calling for heavy rain throughout the contest with winds blowing at close to 20 mph. The conditions simply aren't going to allow for either of these teams to open up their playbook. Each is going to have to run the football a lot more than they would like. I also think it keeps the heavy favorite in Memphis from worrying about running up the score to look good, but instead focusing on just getting out this game without any of their key players suffering an injury, especially given they have a big road game next week at UCF to open up AAC play. 

The biggest key here is that Memphis doesn't figure to be throwing the ball over the field, which would have likely led to a lot of quick scores. They are still going to have plenty of success on the ground, but that's going to keep the clock moving. As for the Warhawks, they could have a really hard time generating points. Memphis had some lackluster defensive efforts last year against the better teams they played, but were strong against the bottom feeders. While they allowed 455 ypg, they gave up fewer than 315 yards in 6 of their 13 games. ULM is one of those teams they can handle and the conditions here will only make that much harder for the Warhawks. Take the UNDER! 

*Play is still recommended at current line*

4* Early Bird TaxSlayer Bowl Total No Brainer on Kentucky/Ga Tech OVER

I really like the value here on the total and this one going well over the mark set by the books. Both of these teams shouldn’t have much problem getting their offense going.

Kentucky comes in averaging 31.0 ppg and put up 35+ in 5 of their final 6 games. The Wildcats have a dynamic rushing attack that finished 16th in the country at 241.3 ypg. You also can’t sleep on the passing game. Stephen Johnson thew for 9 of his 12 touchdowns in the final 6 games. He finished the season off with 338 yards and 3 scores against Louisville.

They should find plenty of success against a Georgia Tech defense that wasn’t great. The Yellow Jackets finished 64th against the run and 74th against the pass. They gave up 4.8 yards/carry on the ground and allowed QB’s to complete 62.7% of their attempts.

On the flip side of this, Georgia Tech’s triple-option should make life miserable for UK. The Wildcats finished 108th in the country in run defense, giving up 225.0 ypg. I know they will have had a month to prepare for the option. The problem is if you haven’t played against it, it’s really hard to stop and the Wildcats simply aren't familiar with the option offense. I look for a lot of mental breakdowns for Kentucky’s defense, which is going to lead to big plays and quick scores.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Wildcats defense was much worse away from home. Kentucky gave up 37.4 ppg on the road this season. They allowed 5.8 yards/carry and 9.4 yards/pass attempt. Georgia Tech doesn’t throw a lot, but when they do it goes for big gains. I think they throw a few wrinkles in for this one that catch Kentucky off guard.

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in Kentucky’s last 7 non-conference games and 7-0 after an upset win as a double-digit dog. OVER is also 12-4-1 in Georgia Tech’s last 17 non-conference games. Take the OVER!

5* Armed Forces Bowl Total of the Month on OVER

I actually think there's some great value here with the total and this one going well OVER the mark here. The perception here is that Navy's offense won't be able to produce like it had been now that they are down to their 3rd string quarterback, who only managed to guide the Midshipmen offense to just 17 points in a loss to Army. That came after Navy only managed to score 10 points in the ACC title game against Temple. While Louisiana Tech has a strong run defense, this triple-option offense is extremely difficult to stop, even when you have had ample amount of time to prepare. The Bulldogs also close out the season giving up 35, 39 and 58 points in their final 3 games.

I believe Navy can score in the 28-35 range, which should be more than enough to push this over the mark. Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense that can score quickly and this Navy defense has struggled all season giving up big plays and simply aren't that talented on that side of the ball. The Midshipmen finished 74th against the run (187.0 ypg) and 80th against the pass (242.2 ypg). They have allowed 30+ points in 6 of their last 9 games, 3x giving up 40 or more. Due to playing in the ACC title game and then having to turn around and play Army the next week, Navy hasn't had a lot of time to prep for this game, so don't expect the defense to be any better than it has been against top tier offenses like we have here with the Bulldogs.

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Bulldogs 7 games this season with a total posted between 63.5 and 70 points and 9-1 when it's more than 63. OVER is also 21-9 in La Tech's last 30 when facing a team that averages 34 or more points/game and 9-2 in Navy's last 11 when facing a high-powered offense that averages 425 or more yards/game. Take the OVER!

5* Miami Beach Bowl Veges Insider Top Play on OVER

This has all the makings of a shootout, with both teams putting up big offensive numbers. All you really have to do is look at Tulsa’s results this season to see why the over should be a good play. The Golden Hurricane feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They rank 6th in the country in total offense (522.6 ypg) and 11th in scoring (41.3 ppg). Tulsa has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season. That being an early season road game against a superior Ohio State team.

I look for Tulsa to score 40+ here against the Chippewas. Central Michigan’s defense has been exposed on a number of occasions. They allowed 49 to both Virginia and Western Michigan. They also gave up 31 to Toledo and 37 to Miami (OH).

Not only have the Golden Hurricane been putting up a lot of points, they have allowed quite a few as well. Tulsa defense ranks 80th in total defense (432.4 ypg) and are T-89th in points allowed (31.5 ppg). They are equally as bad against the run (184.1 ypg, 73rd) as they are against the pass (248.3 ypg, 89th).

I’m aware that Central Michigan’s offense has struggled of late. The Chippewas didn’t score more than 28-points in a single conference game. I’m not concerned. This Tulsa defense has made bad offenses look great all season long. Just look at their regular season finale against Cincinnati.

Tulsa allowed the Bearcats to score 37 points and rack up 534 yards of total offense. Note that Cincinnati scored 20 or fewer points in 7 of their 12 games. They had scored a mere 26 in their previous 4 games combined before exploding against Tulsa.

It’s also worth pointing out the Chippewas have a legit QB in senior Cooper Rush. He’s a potential late round NFL draft pick, who can sling it. He completed 61.1% of his attempts for 3,299 yards and 23 touchdowns. He averaged 338.0 passing yards/game in Central Michigan’s 4 non-conference games. In those contests, the Chippewas averaged 39.5 ppg.

OVER is 26-6 (81%) over the last 10 seasons in games with a total between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games.Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on Temple/Navy UNDER

I think we are getting some big time value on the UNDER in Saturday's total between Temple and Navy in the AAC Championship Game. I believe a lot of that has to do with the recent results for Navy, who has put up 66 and 75 points in their last two games. While you don't really expect the Midshipmen to put up those kind of points, it wasn't all that surprising given it came against East Carolina and SMU. The Pirates have the 110th ranked rushing defense and the Mustangs are far behind with the 96th ranked rushing defense.

It's about to get a whole lot harder to run the ball for Navy, as they are facing a stingy Temple defense that finished the regular season ranked 3rd in the country in total defense, allowing just 273.5 ypg. They were sensational against the run, giving up just 128 ypg and a mere 3.6 yards/carry. I know it's a lot different stopping a normal rushing attack compared to Navy's triple-option attack, but the Owls have already faced two triple-option teams in Army and Tulane, so the principles of how to attack this offense are fresh with these players.

Now I know Navy's defense hasn't been great, but this is a good matchup for the Midshipmen. Their biggest weakness on defense is stopping the pass, as they were a mere 107th in the country, giving up 264.9 ypg. Temple's not a great passing team and more than anything they want to run the football, as they averaged 42 rushing attempts a game, compared to just 27 pass attempts (averaging 50+ rush attempts in their last 6 games).

Both teams here are going to pound the rock when they have it, which is going to eat up the clock and limit the possessions for both sides. On top of that, neither of these teams like to push the tempo, so we can expect to see a lot of long drives. Exactly what we are looking for when taking an UNDER with a total north of 60. Take the UNDER!

4* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 Champ No Brainer on UNDER

The value in this matchup is on the total. When you think of the Pac-12, you think of high-scoring offenses and lackluster defense (with the exception of Stanford). While both of these teams can light up a scoreboard, it’s their defenses that got them here. I look for this to resemble more of a Big Ten defensive battle than a Pac-12 shootout. I actually think the total should be closer to 50 than 60.

These are the two best defenses in the Pac-12 statistically. Washington ranks 17th in total defense (328.9 ypg) and are allowing just 17.8 ppg. Colorado is even better. The Buffaloes are 13th in total defense (323.7 ypg) and allowing only 18.7 ppg. That a lone really tells you all you need to know for why there’s value on the UNDER with a total at 58.

The only Pac-12 team that is on par with these two in defensive talent is USC. It just so happens that both teams plays the Trojans this year and both were defensive battles. Colorado lost 17-21 at USC and Washington lost 13-26 at home to the Trojans. Keep in mind that USC is every bit as potent offensively as these two teams.

When you factor in the magnitude of this game and where it's being played, I think it only favors a low-scoring game that much more. It’s anyone’s guess how much the playoff committee is going to value conference championships. Regardless, both of these teams have to feel like they have a shot at getting in with a win. This is a lot of pressure for two programs who aren’t use to being in this spot.

I have a feeling that this total will likely only get lower as we get closer to kickoff. If you like what you see with the UNDER, I recommend getting in on the action now. With that said, I still think there’s great value here at anything over 53 points. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF SEC West Total of the Month on Auburn/Alabama UNDER

Last year's Iron Bowl saw just 44 combined points and I think we could see an even bigger offensive struggle this time around. These are two of the best defenses in the country, who are going to lay everything they have on the line in this massive rivalry game.

Alabama comes in 2nd in the country in total defense, giving up just 252.6 ypg and are outstanding against the run, allowing just 68.9 ypg (1st). Auburn is extremely dependent on their running game, as they come in 5th in rushing (297.8 ypg) compared to 109th in passing (175.7 ypg). As good as the Tigers are running the ball, the Crimson Tide have proven they are up to the challenge, completely shutting down some really great running teams this season.

Auburn is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball. The Tigers are 18th in the country in total defense, giving up just 334.5 ypg and are at their best against the run (117.7 ypg). Alabama's offense isn't as explosive in years past and are very dependent on their ability to run the ball with success to put up a lot of points.

UNDER is 6-0 in Alabama's last 6 against strong rushing teams, who average 4.75 or more yards/carry and 10-2 in their last 12 home games against teams who average 230 or more rushing yards/game. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Tide's last 12 home games after 8 or more SU wins and 11-2 in their last 13 after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on Temple/Tulane UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive showdown in Tulane on Saturday. Temple comes into this game off a 21-0 win at Connecticut. A game in which they failed to score a single point in the final 3 quarters of regulation. Not a surprising outcome given that the Huskies are a strong defensive team and very limited offensively.

Tulane is just as bad as UConn offensively, but are much better defensively. The Green Wave come in ranked 112th in the country in total offense, averaging just 353.4 ypg. Almost all of that comes on the ground, as they average 236.4 ypg rushing, compared to 117.0 ypg passing. Hard to imagine them doing much of anything here, as Temple is 7th in the country in total defense, allowing just 291.4 ypg. On top of that, the Owls have had a full two weeks to prepare for this game.

As for the Green Wave defense, you might be surprised to see that they are 23rd in the country in total defense, given they are just 3-7 overall and 0-6 in conference play. They are a balanced defensive attack, ranking 49th against the run and 30th against the pass. Last time out against a dynamic Houston offense, they limited the Cougars to just 30 points and only 287 yards of total offense.

The big key here is that this not a game that Temple can overlook, as they are tied with USF on top the East standings in the AAC at 5-1. Due to beating USF at home, they hold the tiebreaker and if they win out, they are headed to the ACC Championship Game. I also expect a big effort from Tulane, as they desperately want to avoid going winless in conference play, plus there's a little extra motivation here with this being their home finale. Note they have played very well at home against the better teams in the ACC, losing 14-21 to Navy and 14-24 to Memphis. I think we see a very similar type of score here, which has well below the mark in this one. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Month on USC/Washington UNDER

I love the value we are getting with the total in Saturday's highly anticipated Pac-12 showdown between Washington and USC. I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total here due to how well these two offenses have looked of late. Both have scored 40+ in 4 of their last 5 games. However, that's not all that surprising given how few teams in the Pac-12 play defense. I'm not saying these two offenses aren't legit, I just don't think their defenses are getting near the respect they deserve in this one.

Washington comes into this game ranked 18th in the country in total defense and the strength of their stop unit is their secondary, which ranks 13th against the pass, allowing just 181.9 ypg. USC is a respectable 38th in total defense and have allowed more than 27 points just once in their last 8 games. The Huskies haven't allowed more than 28 points all season.

While both offenses are much improved over last year, you can't ignore the fact that these two teams combined for just 29 points in Washington's 17-12 win at USC a year ago. With everything that both of these teams have riding on this game, I expect another hard fought defensive battle.

The UNDER is 10-2 in USC's last 12 road games after scoring 42 or more points in 2 straight games and 20-8 in their last 28 against a team with a winning record. Under is also 11-2 in the Huskies last 13 with a total set at 56.5 to 63 points and 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on Air Force/Army UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's military showdown between Air Force and Army. While it's not quite the same rivalry as Army/Navy, it's pretty close. Anytime you get two armed forces going against each other, it serious business. However, that's not the main reason I like the UNDER in this one.

It's the fact that we have two teams that are going to run it a lot. Air Force averages 63 rushing attempts a game, compared to just 14 pass attempts. Army keeps it on the ground 62 times a game and attempts just 10 passes on average. The clock is going to be running constantly in this one, which is going to keep possessions at a minimum.

The other big key here is that one of the big advantages that these triple option teams like Army and Air Force have over their competition is the option is not easy to prepare for in the typical 6 days teams have between games. That advantage is thrown out the window in these games, as both of these teams are familiar with the schemes and know how to stop it.

Just look at the recent meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 23 points with a total set at 50. The year before they only combined for 29 with a total of 54.

Another factor here is that Air Force could be without starting quarterback Nate Romine, as he's questionable with a ankle injury. The quarterback is arguably the most important piece in the option. Even if he plays, the Falcons option attack won't be as strong with him not at 100%. If he doesn't, it's only going to make Air Force that much more dependent on the run. Take the UNDER!