Sports Picks & Predictions

4* NCAAF Thursday Night Total Annihilator on OVER

I really like the value here on these two teams going over the total. While the Cyclones only come in averaging 24.0 ppg, this is a great matchup for the ISU offense. The Cyclones have the 47th ranked passing offense in the country at 252.4 ypg. Oklahoma’s defense has been hit hard with injuries and their secondary has struggled. The Sooners rank 126th in the country against the pass, allowing a staggering 314.9 ypg.

Iowa State has thrown for 260 or more yards in 4 of their 8 games. In those 4 games they have topped that mark, they are averaging 35.8 ppg. That includes a 42 point effort against Baylor and 31 point outburst at Oklahoma State.

If the Cyclones can just get to 28 points that should be enough to push this over the total. Oklahoma is averaging a ridiculous 51.4 ppg in conference play. The only team to hold them under 40 points is Kansas State. Keep in mind that the Sooners have scored at least 48 points in each of their last 3 games against the Cyclones. That includes a 59 point outburst in their last trip to Jack Trice.

There’s little reason to believe Iowa State’s defense can keep them in check. The Cyclones rank 107th in the country in total defense, allowing 453 ypg. Note they have already allowed 41 to TCU, 45 to Baylor and 38 to Oklahoma State. The Sooners are without a doubt the best offense they have faced this season.

I think you also have to keep in mind that Oklahoma doesn’t figure to let their foot off the gas. The Sooners are still not completely out of making the playoffs. The only thing they can do at this point is destroy the opposition. They didn’t let their foot off the gas last week against Kansas until they were up 53 points.

OVER is 11-1 in Oklahoma’s last 12 road games. It’s also 16-4 in the Sooners’ last 20 with a total at 70 or more points. Take the OVER!

5* SEC Total of the Year on Georgia/Florida UNDER

I originally leaned towards Georgia and the points, but the more I looked into this, I feel the real value is with the UNDER. One of the big reasons I liked the Bulldogs is I felt they were strong enough defensively to keep Florida's offense in check and getting over a touchdown in a game when neither team figures to score much was great value. However, I'd much rather just take my chances on a low-scoring game and not have to worry about Florida sneaking out a 10-point win on a turnover. 

Florida comes into this game with the 2nd ranked defense in the country and after what we saw last year with this unit, I don't think there's any questioning that it's the real deal. The only game they allowed more than 14 points this season was at Tennessee in which things spiraled out of control in the 2nd half, as they gave up 35 to the Vols after holding them to just 3-points in the first 2 periods. 

Even with that poor showing they come into this game allowing just 3.2 yards/carry against the run and are holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 37.9% completion rate. Georgia's offense is dependent on their ability to run the ball and Florida is going to load the box and not allow them to beat them on the ground. Very similar to last year, when they held the Bulldogs to just 3 points and 69 yards rushing. 

As for Florida's offense, they are limited and have simply taken advantage of some bad defensive teams. The best defense they have faced all year is Vanderbilt, which ranks 62nd in total defense. Every other team they have faced currently ranks 80th or worse in total defense. Note that Florida only scored 13 points on 236 total yards in that game against the Commodores. 

Now they face a Georgia defense that comes in ranked 20th in total defense. The big key here, is the Bulldogs are at their best against the run. They are 17th in the country, allowing just 111.1 ypg and just 3.5 yards/carry. Florida is only averaging 21.7 ppg in 3 games where they rush for 110 or fewer yards and are averaging 39.0 ppg when in 3 games when they rush for 200 or more. Give me the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on W Virginia/Oklahoma St UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers come into this one undefeated and ranked No. 10 in the country and will be getting their biggest test of the year in Oklahoma State, who is 3-1 and still in position to win the Big 12 title. I think the Cowboys are going to take exception to being a home dog against West Virginia and you can count on Boone Pickens Stadium being electric with a Top 10 team coming to town. 

This might not seem like a great under bet give Oklahoma State comes in averaging 41.1 ppg and West Virginia isn't too far behind at 33.0 ppg. However, I don't think either of these offenses are all they are made out to be. West Virginia has played 5 FBS opponents and 4 of those are ranked outside the Top 75 in total defense. The only exception being Kansas State, who they managed just 17 points at home against (only had 3 points going into the 4th quarter). This is also just the second true road game for West Virginia and I think that hurts the offense, especially in this environment. 

Oklahoma State has also benefited from playing some bad defenses to start the year. The Cowboys last 3 games were against Texas, Iowa State and Kansas, who are all ranked 90th or worse in total defense. The two respectable defenses they have faced are Central Michigan and Baylor and they failed to top 30 in both of those games. West Virginia comes in allowing just 17.8 ppg and are really clicking on that side of the ball right now. The past two weeks they held the high-powered offenses of Texas and TCU to a combined 27 points.

Both of these teams have really made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. West Virginia is only allowing a completion percentage of 52.6% on the season and the Cowboys aren't too far behind, allowing just 58.9%. With the wind expected to be blowing around 15-20 mph for most of this game, I think both teams are going to run it a lot. That's going to eat up the clock and cut down on the possessions for both teams.  

UNDER is 17-4 in West Virginia's last 21 conference games, 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are allowing 250 or more passing yards/game and 7-0 in their last 7 as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on C. Michigan/Toledo UNDER

I believe the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to what these offenses have done to this point and not how these two teams stack up against each other. Central Michigan comes comes in averaging 32.3 ppg and Toledo is putting up 43.0 ppg. The betting public is going to see that and think this total should be much closer to 70 than 60. 

The key here is that these are two very capable defensive teams and the offensive numbers for both sides are greatly aided by a some really weak competition they have played. Here's a list of where the Chippewas FBS opponents they have played rank in total defense; 106th, 74th, 107th, 22nd, 88th and 122nd. The team that was 22nd was Western Michigan and Central Michigan scored 10-points in that game. Now lets do the same thing for Toledo; 92nd, 101st, 83rd, 68th and 125th. 

As far as these two defenses are concerned. Central Michigan comes in ranked 31st in total defense, allowing just 351 ypg. Toledo is 37th in total defense, allowing just 360 ypg. Both of these teams are really good against the pass, which should limit the big plays here. Opposing teams are completing just 56.5% of their attempts against the Chippewas and only 51.4% against the Rockets. 

UNDER is 25-11 in Toledo's last 36 games against good offensive teams, who are averaging 425 or more yards/game. It's also 17-5 in their last 22 against a team with a winning record and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 5-0 in Central Michigan's last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* SEC Over/Under Total Annihilator on Florida/Missouri UNDER

I believe the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Both Missouri and Florida had last week off, giving them a ton of time to prepare for this game. Last year they combined for just 24 points in a 21-3 Gators win at Missouri. The previous year they combined for 55 points in a 42-13 Tigers win. However, that's about as misleading of a score as you will ever find. Missouri scored 42 points on a mere 119 yards of total offense, as they had a touchdown on kick return, punt return, interception and fumble. I'll take my chances something like that doesn't happen again in this series. 

I know Missouri's gone to a more uptempo offense this year, but it's not really producing against the top teams they have played. Take away their 61 point effort against Eastern Michigan and 79 point outburst against Delaware State and they are averaging just 15.0 ppg in their 3 games against West Virginia, Georgia and LSU. They have been especially bad on the road, scoring just 11 at West Virginia and 7 at LSU. It's no secret that Florida has one of the best defenses in the country and are as tough to score as they come at home (only allowed 14 points at home all season). 

We also know that the Gators offense isn't a juggernaut and can struggle to put points on the scoreboard. We saw it last year and again this season. While Missouri's defense isn't great, they have been missing some key guys on that side of the ball, who are expected to be back this week. Add in the extra time to prepare for the Gators and I look for the Tigers to hold their own. Keep in mind they could give up 30 points and we still could be in good shape, as I don't see the Tigers scoring more than 17. 

It's also worth mentioning that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Missouri's last 7 road games and 33-18 in Florida's last 51 off a non-cover where they won the game outright (beat Vanderbilt 13-6 as a 14-point favorite). Take the UNDER! 

4* Big 10 Over/Under Total Dominator on Nebraska/Indiana UNDER

This total is going to appear way too low for a lot of people, as these aren't exactly two teams you think about as defensive stoppers, especially Indiana. However, I think we are going to see a low-scoring grind it out type of game. 

Indiana comes into this game ranked 39th in the country in total offense, largely due to a passing attack that ranks 26th in the country at 293 ypg. However, if you look closer at the numbers, they have only passed for more than 285 yards once all season. That was a 496 yards performance against Wake Forest. Last week they only had 182 passing yards against Ohio State. Nebraska's got a strong secondary. The Cornhuskers have held 3 of their 5 opponents under 200 yards passing and the most they have allowed is 251. The other big key here with Nebraska's defense is they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and have no reason to be looking ahead with Purdue on deck. 

I just don't think this Indiana offense is as good as people think, but it's also not surprising that they aren't as good on that side of the ball. Indiana lost some serious talent from last year's team in quarterback Nate Sudfield (3,573 yards, 27 TDS) and running back Jordan Howard (1,213 yards, 6.2 yards/carry). The game that really stands out to me is their first game against FIU. They put up 34 points, but 16 of those came from the defense. The same FIU team that gave up 41 to Maryland and 53 to UCF. 

On the flip side of this, I have been impressed with Indiana's defense. For a team that isn't known for playing any defense, they are showing some good signs of changing things around on that side of the ball. They only gave up 383 yards of total offense last week on the road against a very good Ohio State offense. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 52.5% of their passes against them and the run defense has been decent. The key here is they should be able to gear up on the run against Nebraska, who is not a great passing team, plus they should also feed off the energy of the home crowd. 

At the same time, this Nebraska offense isn't anything special. They are only averaging 473 ypg despite playing some really bad defenses in Fresno State, Wyoming, Oregon and Illinois. Note that their opponents on average are allowing 440 ypg (198 ypg on the ground). The only legit defense they have faced is Northwestern and they only scored 24 points. 

I don't think either team gets to 30 points in this game and that should have them struggling to put up 50, which gives us around 7-points of value. Give me the UNDER! 

4* Big 12 Over/Under Total No Brainer on Oklahoma/Kansas St UNDER

A lot of people are going to see this total sitting under 60 points and instantly want to take the OVER. The perception is that Big 12 games are always high-scoring and we have seen Oklahoma play in some really high-scoring games this season. However, I think the value here is with the UNDER. 

Oklahoma's offense has been held in check this year by both Houston and Ohio State. The Sooners scored just 23 against the Cougars and 24 against the Buckeyes. In that game against Houston, they only had 17 points until the final minutes of the 4th when they added a garbage touchdown. While Oklahoma is balanced offensively, I think their passing game is set up by their ability to run the ball. Keep in mind Houston held them to just 70 yards rushing in by far their worst offensive showing of the season. Kansas State can take away the running game. The Wildcats rank 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 80.8 ypg and a mere 2.7 yards/carry. 

The other thing that Kansas State is going to do is try and help their defense by sustaining long-drives offensively. Something I believe they can do against an overrated Oklahoma defense. Let's also not forget the Sooners are in a prime spot for a letdown after finally getting the monkey off their back against rival Texas last week. Not to mention Oklahoma has quite a long list of injured players on the defensive side of the ball. 

Bill Synder has magical powers when it comes to getting his team to play above expectations when they are a big underdog. I really like the team he has here. I don't hate taking the points with K-State, but I do have some concerns with their offense being able to produce enough points. They are ranked 112th in the country in total offense with zero threat of a passing attack. I would much rather rely on their defense keeping this a low-scoring game than hoping the offense can score late to keep it within the number. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Navy/Air Force UNDER

This total is going to have some people shaking their heads. Navy comes into this game averaging 33.7 ppg and Air Force is even better at 37.3 ppg, yet we have a total here under 50. It has everything to do with the style of play for these two teams. Both run an option oriented offense that is difficult for most other teams to prepare for, especially on a normal week of preparation. That advantage of the defense not knowing how to defend the option is lost in this matchup, as these two teams practice against it all year long.

To no surprise, we have consistently seen the books miss the mark on the total when these two teams play. In fact, each of the last 4 and 8 of the last 10 have gone UNDER the mark. Last year they combined for 44 points with Navy doing the heavy lifting in a 33-11 win. The thing to keep in mind, is the Midshipmen aren't nearly as explosive on offense this year after losing the best option quarterback to ever go through their program in Keenan Reynolds. In fact, Navy only had 1 returning starter on offense (did bring back 7 on defense). 

Not only do these two teams know how to stop the option, both come in with a pretty strong defense. Navy is only giving up 18.0 ppg and Air Force is allowing just 18.3 ppg. The other big key here is that due to both teams running on almost every play, the clock is constantly moving. That limits the possessions for both teams and really makes it tough for them to put up a lot of points. At the same time, we don't have to worry about either side throwing interceptions that can lead to quick scores. 

UNDER is 11-1 in Air Force's last 12 home games after outrushing each of their last 2 opponents by 125 or more yards and 25-9 in Navy's last 34 against excellent ball control teams, who average 32 or more minutes of possession per game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Wisconsin/Michigan St UNDER

It's not very often we see these low totals in today's college football, but it's for good reason in Saturday's Big Ten showdown between No. 11 Wisconsin and No. 8 Michigan State. Both of these teams are really good on the defensive side of the ball and have offenses built around running the football and controlling the time of possession to keep their defenses fresh. 

This one has a defensive battle written all over it, as I could easily see this being a 17-13 type of game. I know Michigan State put up 38 points last week against what most people perceived to be a very good Notre Dame team, but that Irish defense is not very good and had already given up a huge number to Texas. The Spartans also benefited in that game from 3 Notre Dame turnovers, two scoring drives of less than 40 yards. 

They simply aren't going to be able to move the ball with that kind of success against the Badgers. Wisconsin held LSU to just 14 points and 257 yards of total offense in their opener. The next week they held Akron to 10 points and 224 yards. Their last game against Georgia State, saw them allow 17 points but only 299 total yards. That's with an offense that has struggled to stay on the field. They matchup well with Michigan State, as the Spartans strenght is their running game and that's what Wisconsin's defense is built to stop. Almost no one is giving Wisconsin a chance in this game, which only adds more fuel to the fire for this Badgers defense. 

Michigan State's offense won't be the only ones struggling. The Spartans are alway strong defensively under Dantonio and this year looks to be no different. They really did a number on the Irish last week. I know Note Dame put up 28 points, but 21 of those came after the Spartans built up a comfortable 36-7 lead. Wisconsin is playing a backup quarterback and without their best player in running back Corey Clement. They are going to try and grind out the clock and play it safe on offense with a lot of runs and hope the defense gives them a chance to win this game late.

UNDER is 8-0 in the Badgers last 8 after 2 straight games where they held 34 or more minutes of possession and 24 or more first downs. It's also 6-0 in their last 6 after playing their last two games at home, 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is 7-3 in the Spartans last 10 after they played a game with 450 or more total yards. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Month on Colorado/Michigan UNDER

While I think there's some value here with Colorado catching all those points, I believe the real value is on the total and this one going under the mark set by the books. Everyone knows that Michigan is a great defensive team, but you might be surprised to learn it's Colorado who leads the country in total defense, allowing a mere 160.5 yards/game. In comparison, Michigan is giving up 281 ypg. 

Now I know the Buffaloes haven't had a tough first two opponents, but what they did against in-state rival Colorado State in the opener really stands out to me. That game was played on a neutral site and Colorado held them to 225 yards and just 7 points. They also forced 4 turnovers. Note that Colorado State put up 500 yards on them last year and returned 6 starters this season, including starting quarterback Nick Stevens. Coming into the season this looked like the Buffaloes best defense (9 returning starters) in years and it certainly appears to be the case. 

I know Michigan's offense has looked good in their first two games, but a lot of that has to do with the competition. They put up 63 on a Hawaii team that just played the previous week in Australia and 51 on a UCF team that didn't win a single game last year. 

I think points are going to be tough to come by for both teams and each is going to have to work to move the ball down the field. Keep in mind that for this game to go over the total of 56, these two have to average more than two touchdowns (14.0 points) per quarter. I just don't see that happening. Take the UNDER! 

4* Cinc/San Diego St Hawaii Bowl Total Annihilator on OVER

San Diego State allowed 24 or fewer points over their 9-game conference winning streak to close out the year, but they didn't have to face Boise State and  if you watched the Mountain West you know there's a lot of bad offensive teams. The thing that stands out to me is how the Aztecs defense performed in non-conference play, allowing 35 points to Cal, 34 to South Alabama and 37 to Penn State. I think San Diego State's defensive run has created some huge value here with the OVER. 

Cincinnati comes in with the 26th ranked scoring offense (36.1 ppg) and are 4th in the country in passing at 373.1 ypg. This will be the best passing attack the Aztecs have seen since non-conference and keep in mind that the opposing quarterbacks San Diego State has played this year only averaged a 55.8% completion rate and 200 ypg. Cincinnati's quarterbacks completed 62.4% of their attempts with a strong 8.7 yards per pass attempt. I know the Bearcats will be without starting quarterback Gunner Keil, but backup Hayden Moore has played in several games and shown he's more than capable of putting up big numbers, including a 557 yard and 4 touchdown performance against Memphis. 

On the flip side of this, Cincinnati doesn't have a great defense. The Bearcats ranked 81st in total defense, allowing 414.6 ypg. They were especially bad against the run, which they finished 83rd against, giving up 190.3 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry. That's good news for the Aztecs, who come in with the 14th ranked rushing attack at 235.3 ypg. 

I look for teams to provide plenty of fireworks offensively and most importantly some quick scores with the Bearcats striking through the air and the Aztecs on the ground. Also don't be surprised if Cincinnati doesn't have a few big turnovers that result in easy scores for San Diego State. OVER is 4-1 in the Bearcats last 5 bowl games, 7-1 in their last 8 games in December and 11-4 in their last 15 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* GoDaddy Bowl Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

We know Bowling Green is going to put up points, as they average 43.4 ppg and have scored no fewer than 28 points in a game all season The biggest key here is whether or not Georgia Southern can run the football against the Falcons, as the Eagles offer little to no threat of a passing attack. I believe they will be able to have success on the ground and the line here backs that up. If the oddsmakers didn't think Georgia Southern was going to be able to run the ball, this line would be a lot more, as the Eagles simply wouldn't be able to score enough to keep it close. 

Bowling Green gave up 4.0 yards/carry and 162 ypg on the ground this season and they didn't exactly face the best rushing attacks in the MAC. What I like, is we have seen the Falcons give up big numbers on the ground. They allowed 399 rushing yards to Tennessee, 299 yards to Ohio, 205 to Western Michigan and 198 to Toledo. None of those teams have as strong as a rushing attack as the Eagles, who finished the year with the nation's top ranked rushing attack at 355.6 ypg. 

Keep in mind Georgia Southern put up 233 rushing yards on the road against Georgia and 413 against Western Michigan out of the MAC. When the Eagles have rushed for 250 or more yards this season, they have scored a minimum of 37 points. 

Another bonus factor here is both of these teams saw their head coach leave to take on a bigger and better job in the time leading up to this game. That only hurts the preparation and given the talent these two have on offense, I believe it will hurt the most on the play defensively. 

OVER is 30-10 (75%) since 1992 in non-conference games with a total of 63.5 to 70 where you have a team (Georgia Southern) that has been beat by the spread by 21 or more combined points in their last 3 games. Take the OVER! 

5* New Orleans Bowl Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER 

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fire works in Saturday's New Orleans Bowl between Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in 2015, as the Redwolves averaged 41.0 ppg on 448 ypg and the Bulldogs put up 36.7 ppg on 465 ypg. At the same time, both of these defenses struggled, especially away from home. Arkansas State allowed 33.2 ppg on the road and Louisiana Tech allowed 31.3 ppg. 

The big key here is making sure that a team like Arkansas State, from a weaker conference, can have success against the likes of Louisiana Tech. I believe they can and will. The Redwolves have been an offensive juggernaut down the stretch. They scored 50+ in each of their last 3 games and put up 40 on an Appalachian State defense that finished the year ranked 12th in the country in total defense.

While running the football is their strength, Arkansas State has a more than capable quarterback in senior Fredi Knighten, who threw for 17 touchdowns in his last 7 games. Knighten should be able to exploit a Louisiana Tech defense that finished 107th against the pass (265.8 ypg) and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.2% of their attempts. 

Louisiana Tech should also have a field day offensively. The Bulldogs posted the 15th ranked passing attack in the country at 311.9 ypg and will be going up against a Arkansas State defense that finished 91st against the pass. While the Redwolves have the talent offensively to take on the Bulldogs, they don't have the talent defensively.

OVER is 6-0 in Arkansas State's last 6 after scoring 31 or more points in 4 straight games, 7-0 in their last 7 after playing 3 straight games where 60 or more combined points were scored and 6-0 in their last 6 off 3 or more straight up wins. OVER is also 6-0 in the Redwolves last 6 against teams who allowing opponents to complete 58% or more of their pass attempts and 10-0 in their last 10 against opponents who complete 58% or more of their pass attempts. Add it up and we have a perfect 35-0 system in play on this one to eclipse the mark. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conf Total of the Month on Georgia/Georgia Southern OVER

I think the books have set the total way too low for this matchup. The perception is Georgia Southern, a team from the lowly Sun Belt Conference, won't be able to provide much offense against a SEC power like Georgia, who is coming off back-to-back strong defensive games where they held Kentucky to 3 points and Auburn to 13. 

The key here is that the Bulldogs aren't going to come out with the same intensity on defense against the Eagles as they would a conference opponent, especially with Georgia not really having a whole lot to play for right now at 7-3. I actually think this is a big letdown spot for the Bulldogs, as they have a huge revenge game on deck against in-state rival Georgia Tech. 

The other factor here is Georgia Southern brings a potent offense into Athens. The Eagles are averaging 37.4 ppg and have topped 43 points in 6 of their 9 games. Georgia Southern also runs an option based offense that is hard to prepare for, especially for a team like Georgia that doesn't see the option often. 

Defensively the Eagles aren't anything to write home about and Georgia's offensive line should be able to overpower them at the line of scrimmage. I look for a lot of big plays here from the Bulldogs, which will lead to quick scores. Keep in mind Georgia Southern gave up 44 points on 544 yards of total offense against West Virginia, who is not as talented offensively as Georgia. I see the Bulldogs scoring close to 40 with the Eagles in the mid to upper 20's. 

OVER is 8-1 in the Bulldogs last 9 games after playing a game where they didn't commit a turnover and 6-0 in their last 6 after a game where they had a turnover margin of +2 or better. OVER is also 7-0 in Georgia's last 7 against the Sun Belt, 7-0 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Eagles last 6 non-conference games. Take the OVER! 

4* Temple/SMU Total No Brainer on OVER

The Owls got all kinds of media hype last week leading up to their showdown at home against Notre Dame, which was the location of Game Day. A lot of the talk was about how good their defense was and they didn't disappoint, holding the Irish to just 24 points in near upset. 

I believe that hype has resulted in a much lower total than what we should be seeing in this matchup. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Owls, going on the road with a short week of rest against a SMU team that is sitting at 1-7 with a 6-game losing streak. Temple will struggle to bring anywhere close to the intensity they had last week against Notre Dame, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I look for SMU to take advantage and put up a decent number offensively. The Mustangs are are a strong offensive team, averaging 28.7 ppg on 414 ypg. They have the 43rd ranked passing attack at 253.1 ypg and should be able to create some big plays through the air against Temple's 69th ranked passing attack (226.3 ypg). 

The big key here is that regardless if the Owls are 100% focused or not, they aren't going to have much trouble putting up points against this SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 119th against the run (259.0 ypg) and 104th against the pass (265.4 ypg). They have allowed at least 38 points in each of their last 6 games. If temple simply scores 38, we only need SMU to score 14 points to eclipse this total. 

OVER is 10-1 in Temple's last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their last game, 6-0 in SMU's last 6 off a conference home loss and 6-0 in the Mustangs last 6 after failing to cover in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on Oklahoma/K-State OVER

These two teams combined for 61 points in last year's 31-30 Kansas State upset win at Oklahoma. It was the 6th time in the last 7 meetings where these two teams eclipsed the total set by the books. Some of the highest scoring games during this stretch have come when the two teams play in Manhattan. The combined score of the last 3 games between these two teams at Kansas State are 72, 75 and 93. I feel like the books have set a drastically low total here due to Oklahoma only scoring 17 points last week against a Texas defense that isn't considered to be very good.

The thing you have to keep in mind with the Sooners game last week against the Longhorns is that's  huge rivalry game, so there's going to be max effort defensively, especially from the underdog. It was clear the Longhorns wanted that game more. Coming off that ugly showing offensively, Oklahoma is going to be extremely motivated to score early an often here against the Wildcats. Keep in mind the Sooners had scored at least 31 points in each of their previous 4 games and after only gaining 278 total yards against Texas are still ranked 22nd in the country in total offense at 473.0 ypg.

Kansas State looks like the perfect team for Oklahoma to get their offense back on track. The Wildcats have allowed 33 to Louisiana Tech, 36 to Oklahoma State and 52 to TCU (Horned Frogs only had 17 points at the half) in their last 3 games. Kansas State's defense ranks 110th in the country against the pass (290.6 ypg), while Oklahoma has the 14th ranked passing offense (328.8 ypg), so the Sooners will be able to play to their strength and that should lead to a lot of big plays.

I also expect the Wildcats to do their fair share of scoring in this one, whether it comes early or late when the game is out of hand (Snyder teams don't quit). Kansas State has scored at least 30 points in every game and that includes 34 on the road against a solid Oklahoma State defense. The Wildcats strength offensively is their ground attack, which is averaging 180.2 ypg. The Sooners are 91st in the country against the run (190.4 ypg), so K-States offense should be able to play to their strength as well.

OVER is 13-3 in Kansas State's last 16 games after playing in a contest where 80 or more combined points were scored, 14-2 in their last 16 after being outgained by 175+ yards and 7-2 in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. OVER is also 10-3-1 in Oklahoma's last 14 conference games, 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 following a loss. Take the OVER!

3* UCLA/Stanford Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

Since opening the season with a 6-point effort on the road against Northwestern, the Cardinal’s offense is averaging 42.3 ppg over their last 4 contests. They have played some easy competition in 3 of those 4 games, but the 41 points they hung at USC is a strong indicator that this offense is for real.

Either way, Stanford should have no problem moving the ball here against a depleted UCLA defense that is without 3 of their best players in linebacker Myles Jack, defensive linemen Eddie Vanderdoes and corner Fabian Moreau. While the Cardinals offense ranks in the top 50 in both rushing (209.8 ypg, 27th) and passing (242.8 ypg, 49th), their success relies on their ability to get the running game going (only 85 yards rushing in loss to Northwestern). UCLA’s run defense has given up 353 yards to Arizona and 192 to Arizona State in their last 2 games. Last year the Cardinal put up 202 yards on the ground and I just don’t see the Bruins having an answer here for Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey.

On the flip side of this, I think the UCLA offense is going to be able to move the ball and score their fair share of points in this one. Stanford’s defense is strong, but it’s not dominant. The only offense they have faced close to what UCLA brings to the table is USC and they gave up 427 yards and 31 points to the Trojans. They also allowed 330 yards to Northwestern, with 225 of those coming on the ground and over 300 yards to both Oregon State and Arizona. UCLA’s offense ranks 31st in the country at 454 ypg and are well balanced with 199.4 ypg on the ground (37th) and 254.6 ypg through the air (38th).

I believe the fact that UCLA has seen 4 of their 5 games go under the total and Stanford being perceived to be better defensively than they actually are, this total has been set a little lower than it should be. Both offenses are loaded with playmakers and are going to be able to keep the opposing defenses off balance with their ability to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. I could see both of these scoring into the 30’s with a similar type score to what we saw when Stanford played USC, which only had a total of 50.5 and the two combined for 72. Take the OVER!

5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on UTEP/Arkansas OVER 49.5

While Arkansas lost star running back Jonathan Williams to a season-ending foot injury, I don't think that's going to keep the Razorbacks from putting up a big number on the Miners Saturday. Arkansas scored 73 on Nicholls State, 49 on Texas Tech, 42 on Northern Illinois and 45 on UAB in their 4 non-conference games a year ago.

Their massive offensive line is going to create huge holes against the UTEP defense and score at will in this one. Keep in mind backup running back Alex Collins (1,100 yards 12 TDs, 5.4 ypc) as Williams (1,190 yards, 12 TDs, 5.6 ypc). The Razorbacks also get back senior quarterback Brandon Allen and the entire offense should feel comfortable in what will be head coach Brett Bielema's 3rd season. UTEP gave up 172 ypg and 5.2 ypc against the run last year, as well as a hefty 6.3 yards/play. They have just 5 starters back on that side of the ball and lose their leading tackler from a year ago in Wesley Miller (25 more tackles than the next best player).

UTEP's 4 non-conference games were also very high scoring in 2014, with 55 being the lowest combined output and that was against New Mexico. Not only are the Miners going to struggle to slow down a fine-tuned Arkansas offense, but they should be able to put some points on the board, whether it comes early or late. Razorbacks defense was really good a year ago, but they have just 6 starters back and have to replace 3 of their top 4 tacklers, including the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Martrell Spaight. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a 45-20 type of score in this one. Take the OVER!

4* Birmingham Bowl Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle in today's showdown between Florida and East Carolina. Both teams matchup extremely well with the opposing teams offense and I look for a lot of empty possessions that have this one finishing well below the mark.

Florida comes in with the 7th ranked defense in the country, giving up just 311.0 ypg and have been equally dominant against the run (116.8 ypg, 13th) as they have against the pass (194.2 ypg, 21st). East Carolina hasn't went up against a defense this good all season and we have seen them struggle against less talented units. Keep in mind the Pirates only managed to score 23-points against South Carolina out of the SEC, who had more than their fair share of struggles on the defensive side of the ball. Florida only gave up 3.1 yards/carry and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 53.6% of their attempts for an average completion of just 5.9 yards.

As for the Gators offense, it is almost exclusively dependent on their running game. Florida finished 41st in the country in rushing (189.5 ypg) compared to 103rd in passing (180.7 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the East Carolina defense. The Pirates finished inside the Top 10 in rushing, giving up just 107.1 ypg and allowed just 3.3 ypc. The key here is that with their defense figuring to keep the Pirates in check, Florida is going to continue to pound the rock on the ground and try and wear down this talented East Carolina front. Take the UNDER!

5* New Years Day Citrus Bowl Total of the Year on UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle between Minnesota and Missouri leading up to tonight's playoff matchups. Both of these teams have relied heavily on their defenses and offensively they are both focused on running the football.

The Golden Gophers finished 37th in the country in total defense (362.7 ypg). While they were better against the pass than the run, they are strong up front in the trenches and should have no problem keeping Missouri's 100th ranked (361.8 ypg) offense in check. Maty Mauk and the Tigers passing attack ranked just 94th, which is going to force the Tigers to rely almost exclusively on their running game against Minnesota.

Missouri's defense was the reason they won the SEC East. The Tigers finished 22nd in the country overall (344.3 ypg) and were strong against both the run (135.8 ypg, 28th) and the pass (208.5, 37th). The Tigers should have no problem slowing down the Gophers, who are extremely one dimensional. Minnesota finished with the 27th ranked rushing attack (224.6 ypg), compared to a 120th in passing (131.4 ypg).

This is the ideal scenario for the a low scoring game. Two strong defenses against a couple of offenses that are looking to grind out long drives and control the time of possession.

There's a strong system in play backing this as well. UNDER is 53-24 over the last 5 seasons in non-conference games when you have a strong rushing team that is averaging 190-230 ypg, against a team with a strong run defense that is giving up 100-140 ypg. That's a 69% system. Take the UNDER!

4* Music City Bowl Total Dominator on LSU/Notre Dame UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle this afternoon with LSU and Notre Dame and I think we are getting some great value here with this total due to the Fighting Irish's struggles on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch.

The key thing here is that LSU is not a strong offensive team and are extremely one dimensional with the running game. The Tigers finished 28th in the country in rushing (219.5 ypg) compared to a mere 112th in passing (163.9 ypg). While Notre Dame's defense struggled against both the run and the pass, they are better equipped to stop the run and will have an easier time doing so without having to worry too much about the pass. The Irish have also had more than enough time to prepare for this matchup and have got healthier on the defensive side of the ball during their bowl prep.

As for the Notre Dame offense, this is not a good matchup for them at all. The Fighting Irish have relied almost exclusively on their passing attack, which comes in 16th in the country at 293.8 ypg. That plays right into the hands of the LSU defense, which featured one of the best defenses in the nation. The Tigers held opponents to just 162.3 ypg through the air and opposing quarterbacks completed just 50.4%.

It's also important to note that Notre Dame is going to have to run the ball a little more than they would like, as they know they can't afford quick positions that leave their defense out on the field for extended periods. It's also important to note that LSU has a great redzone defense, but struggles to score offensively when in the redzone. Look for a lot of field goals and empty possessions for both teams, which is exactly what we are looking for with a total like this.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 42-12 since 1992 in non-conference games with a total set between 49.5 to 56 points that feature two strong teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play) at least 8 games into the year. That's a 78% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Texas Bowl Total Annihilator on Arkansas/Texas UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight when the Longhorns take on the Razorbacks. Both teams are going to come out extremely motivated. This is almost going to feel like a home game for Texas and they will be looking to give first year head coach Charlie Strong his first bowl win. Arkansas on the other hand will be playing in their first bowl game since 2011 and first under 2nd year head coach Bret Bielema.

Not only are both these teams going to be fired up for this game, they each have two of the better defenses in the country. Texas finished the year ranked 24th in total defense (348.4 ypg), while Arkansas was 21st (365.4 ypg). These two stop units should have an even bigger edge here with more than a month to prepare for the opposing offenses.

Another key factor to why I like the UNDER in this matchup, is the fact that both of these teams heavily rely on their running games. Texas got their ground game going late in the year and averaged 42.3 rush attempts over their last 4 games, Arkansas averaged 42 rush attempts to just 28 pass attempts over the entire season. Look for the clock to be running constantly in this one and most importantly both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and finish off with touchdowns.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Longhorns last 11 games against a strong offensive team that is averaging 31+ points/game and 9-2 in their last 11 games when listed as an underdog. UNDER is also 7-0 in the Razorbacks last 7 when listed as a neutral field favorite and 10-2 in their last 12 bowl games overall. These trends combine to form a 86% (25-4) system backing this one to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Poinsettia Bowl Total Dominator on UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for tonight's showdown between Navy and San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Both of these teams trended towards the UNDER this season. UNDER was 7-4 in Navy's 11 games with a total and 11-1 on they year for San Diego State. The only game for the Aztecs that finished over the total was a 29-38 loss at Boise State.

With this game being played on San Diego State's home field at Qualcomm Stadium, that only adds to the value here on the UNDER. The Aztecs allowed just 12.7 ppg at home this season and should have no problem keeping Navy's offense in check. San Diego's State 3-3-5 defense is built to stop these triple-option attacks and that was evident in their 30-14 win over Air Force in their second to last game of the regular season. They held and Air Force rushing attack that finished the year ranked 8th in the country at 273.1 ypg to just 140 yards on 41 attempts (3.4 ypg).

The key thing here is that Navy isn't going to abandon the run even if they struggle, as their just not built to throw the football. San Diego State is also a run dominated offense, as they finished 30th in rushing (218.6 ypg) compared to 102nd in passing (181.5 ypg). With both teams running constantly, the clock will continue to run, which is exactly what we are looking for when backing an UNDER like this. Just not enough possession here for this one to turn into a shootout.

UNDER is 10-2 in Navy's last 12 games against strong rushing teams that are averaging 4.75 or more yards/carry and 21-7 in San Diego State's last 28 against poor passing teams that average 150 or less yards/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 40-12 since 1992 in games with a total set between 49.5 to 56 points, where you have a non-conference matchup between two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play) facing off at least 8 games into the season. That's a 77% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

5* Pre-New Years Bowl Total of the Year on Utah State/UTEP UNDER

The last time Utah State took the field they were embarrassed 19-50 in a loss at Boise State, which denied them from getting back the MWC Championship Game. I think that poor showing by the Aggies defense has created some nice value here in what should be a defensive showdown.

Utah State comes into this game ranked 36th in the country in total defense (362.3 ypg) and 21st in scoring defense (20.8 ppg). UTEP on the other hand is 45th in total defense (369.8 ypg) and are only allowing 28.7 ppg.

The key here is that both of these teams rely on their defense to win games, as both have struggled on the offensive side of things. Utah State has lost 3 quarterbacks to season-ending injuries and as a result come in 80th in the country in total offense (381.3 ypg). While the Miners have been fortunate to not suffer any injuries at the quarterback position, they have been even worse than Utah State offensively. UTEP comes in 106th in total offense (357.0 ypg). The Miners do have the nation's 34th ranked rushing attack (212.7 ypg), but will be going up against the Aggies 26th ranked run defense (129.3 ypg).

Knowing that their offenses are going to have a difficult time sustaining drives, I look for both teams to play conservative and turn this into a field position battle. That should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up the clock and have this one finishing well below the mark of 46.

UNDER is 10-2 in Utah State's last 12 games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4 and perfect 6-0 in UTEP's last 6 when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. There's also a strong system in play. UNDER is 51-22 over the last 5 seasons in non-conference games when you have a good rushing team that is averaging 190 to 230 ypg (UTEP) against a team with a strong run defense (100-140 ypg). That's a 70% system. Take the UNDER!

4* Army/Navy Rivalry Game of the Month on UNDER 58

Each of the last 8 meetings in this series have finished below the total and I’m expecting that streak to continue. The most points during this stretch that these two have combined for is 48 (2010 & 2011). The average score in the last 22 meetings is a mere 49 points.

One of the big reasons that we see such a huge total is both defenses are statistically two of the worst in the country. Navy comes in ranked 87th in total defense (426.3 ypg) and Army is 98th (444.4 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that the Midshipmen are allowing 29.9 ppg and the Black Knights are giving up 34.4 ppg. Most of the public will look at these numbers and won’t think twice about taking the over, without giving any consideration to the history of this series.

The key here is that this is one of the biggest rivalries that there is in college football and both teams are going to give everything they have to win this game. Navy has shown no signs of being content with their winning streak in the series and it goes without saying that Army is going to treat this like their Super Bowl.

A huge factor here that I think gets overlooked is that both of these teams run the triple-option attack, which means both teams are very familiar with not only how to operate it offensively, but the keys to stopping it. This is why you can’t look too much into the poor defensive numbers that these two teams have put up against the more conventional offenses that they go up against during the course of the regular season.

Two other things that favor into this one going under the total is that both teams have had more than enough time to prepare for this matchup. Navy was off last week and will be playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 15, while Army has had a full two weeks off coming into this one. The other key is that both teams almost exclusively only run the football, which means the clock is going to be running constantly. That’s going to limit the amount of opportunities that both teams have to score.

UNDER is 12-2 in Army’s last 14 road games against excellent rushing teams who average 5.25 or more yards/carry and 7-0 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 24-10 in Navy’s last 34 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 7-0 in their last 7 when playing against a team that’s won just 25% to 40% of their games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (50-12) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Wisconsin/Ohio State Big Ten Total of the Year on UNDER

I don't think the books have adjusted this total near enough to make up for the loss of Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett. A big reason for that is likely due to the Big Ten Championship Game having produced some high-scoring games. Wisconsin and Michigan State combined for 81 points in 2011, Wisconsin and Nebraska combined for 101 in 2012 and last year Ohio State and Michigan State put up 58. I'm expecting a complete reversal, as I see this being an extremely low-scoring defensive battle.

With Ohio State having to turn to sophomore Cardale Jones in what will be his first start, I look for them to simply the playbook and try and take as much pressure off of him as they can by running the football. While Wisconsin has the 8th ranked run defense, the Buckeyes come in 12th in the country in rushing at 257.4 ypg and are averaging 5.6 yards/carry against teams that on average only allow 4.4. I believe that Ohio State is going to be able to have just enough success on the ground to sustain some drives and eat up the clock, but I don't see them being able to convert those drives into touchdowns.

On the flip side of this, I don't think Melvin Gordon and the Badgers are going to run all over the Buckeyes like a lot of people think. Urban Meyer and the Ohio State staff are going to load the box and make Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave make plays, something I don't believe he's going to be able to consistently enough to sustain drives. The other key here is that the Badgers aren't going to abandon the run.

I think both teams have a lot of confidence in their defenses to be able to stop the opposing team. I believe it's going to result in a more conservative approach offensively that has both teams looking to win the field position battle. Take the UNDER!

4* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Game of the Month on UNDER

With Arizona coming in ranked 20th in the country in scoring at 36.7 ppg and Oregon 4th at 45.9 ppg, the public is going to back the over blindly in this game. I believe the value here is with the UNDER. Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams have finished below the mark. They combined for just 55 points at Oregon earlier this season.

The thing you have to keep in mind is that the defenses have an even bigger advantage in the rematch, plus anyone who has watched these two teams play, know that Arizona's 3-3-5 defense gives the Ducks all kinds of problems. Oregon has also been playing much better defensively than they were when they two teams played back in early October.

You also have to factor in the magnitude of this game. Oregon is playing to maintain their spot in the playoffs, while the Wildcats are hoping for an upset and some help to get into the playoffs. The intensity is going to be high on both sides, which I believe is going to lead to this game going well below the mark.

UNDER is 10-2 in Oregon's last 12 games against excellent offensive teams who are averaging 450 or more total yards/game and a perfect 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 games against strong passing teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/attempt. You also have to factor in that this game is being played on the grass surface of Levi's Stadium. UNDER is 3-1-1 in Ducks' last 5 games on grass and 4-1 in Wildcats' last 5 games on grass.

Adding to all of this is a big time system. The UNDER is 30-8 over the last 10 seasons in games played on a neutral field with a total set at 63 or more points in a matchup involving two teams who are allowing 21-28 ppg. That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Big 10 Total of the Month on Minnesota/Wisconsin UNDER

With a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game on the line, I'm expecting a defensive battle similar to what we saw last year. The Badgers edged out a 20-7 win at Minnesota last season, which fell well below the total set of 51 points.

Both Wisconsin and Minnesota have got to this point behind excellent rushing attacks and strong defense. The Badgers come in ranked 3rd in the country in rushing (343.5 ypg) and 3rd in scoring defense (16.1 ppg). The Golden Gophers are 25th in rushing (228.9 ypg) and 30th in scoring defense (22.5).

The important thing here is that both offenses are one dimensional with the running game. Minnesota comes in averaging 47 rush attempts to just 18 pass attempts, while Wisconsin averages 46 rush attempts to just 21 pass attempts.

The clock should be running constantly in this one and both offense figure to really have to work to sustain drives. Expect to see a lot of long possessions with a good mix of empty drives and both offenses settling for field goals. Keep in mind last year not only did these two teams combine for just 27 points, together they totaled just 509 yards.

UNDER is 13-4 in all games Kill has coached when his team comes in having covered 3 out of the last 4 and 15-5 in Andersen's last 20 he's coached with his team having 2 out of the last 3. UNDER is also 11-4 in Minnesota's last 15 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. It's also 6-2-1 in Wisconsin's last 9 games in November. These trends combine to form a 75% (49-16) system. Take the UNDER!

5* C-USA Total of the Year on Rice/LA Tech UNDER 50.5

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Both Rice and Louisiana Tech are better defensively than they are offensively. The Owls are only allowing 26.2 ppg on the season and have and are only allowing 19.6 ppg during their current 8-1 run. That's with them giving up 41 on the road to Marshall. The Bulldogs are allowing just 24.6 ppg and that's with giving up 48 to Oklahoma and 45 to Auburn. It's also worth noting that Louisiana Tech is allowing just 15.7 ppg at home.

Both defenses also rank inside the Top 50 in the county in total defense. The Owls are 47th (371.4 ypg) and the Bulldogs are 28th (347.7 ypg). I look for each of these stop units to have a lot of success in this one, as both offenses are pretty one dimensional. Rice is just 77th in passing (213.3 ypg) and Louisiana Tech is a mere 99th in rushing (136.5 ypg).

The situation here also favors a low scoring game, as the winner of this game will win the West and take on Marshall in the C-USA Championship Game. You also have to factor in that the tape is out on both of these teams. It's unlikely either of these teams are going to do anything offensively that the opposing defense hasn't prepared for in practice.

The UNDER is 6-0 over the last 3 seasons when Rice faces a team with a winning record and 7-0 in the Owls' last 7 after 3 straight games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. These two trends combine to form a perfect 100% (13-0) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Total of the Year on Missouri/Arkansas UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total after watching Arkansas put up 30 points on Ole Miss and Missouri hanging 29 on Tennessee. What stands out to me is that both of these teams dominated defensively. Arkansas pitched their second straight shutout, while limiting Ole Miss to 316 yards, 19 first downs and 6 turnovers. The Tigers on the other hand allowed just 18 first downs on 279 yards of total offense to the Volunteers.

I believe all signs here point to a defensive battle. Arkansas has clearly turned it up a notch on the defensive side of the ball and the bigger the game the better this team seems to play. Keep in mind that the Razorbacks held Mississippi State to just 17 points on the road and limited Alabama to just 14 at home. Missouri is far from an offensive juggernaut and I could really seem them struggling to sustain drives against Arkansas.

The Tigers offense has been heavily reliant on their running game. Missouri is 55th in rushing (177.6 ypg) compared to 103rd in passing (183.1 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the Razorbacks defense, which is 20th against the run (120.9 ypg) and are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.7.

At the same time, Missouri's defense looks to be able to keep the Arkansas offense in check. The Tigers wouldn't be playing for a second straight SEC East title if it wasn't for the play of their defense. Missouri comes in 23rd in total defense (335.0 ypg) and most importantly are strong against the run (125.4 ypg, 23rd). Adding to this is the fact that the Tigers are only giving up 3.3 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.6. The Arkansas offense could also be limited here, as starting quarterback Brandon Allen is questionable with a hip injury.

So not only do we have to strong defensive teams that matchup well with the opposing teams' offense, but we have two teams that almost exclusively rely on their running games. It's a perfect recipe for an UNDER, especially when you add in the magnitude of this game with the Tigers playing for a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

UNDER is 15-5-1 in Arkansas' last 21 road games against a team with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 conference games and 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The UNDER is also 5-1-1 in Missouri's last 7 off a SU win, 5-0 in their last 5 home games and 3-1 this season against strong offensive teams who are averaging 5.9 or more yards/play. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system in favor of this one going below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Pac-12 Total Annihilator on Oregon St/Washington UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this Pac-12 matchup. Four of the last five games between these two teams in Washington have seen a combined score of 47 points or less. The one exception was a double-overtime game in 2010, where the two teams combined for 27 points in extra time (42 at end of regulation).

Whenever Washington plays at home, it's usually a good idea to expect the game to finish below the mark. The Huskies have seen 4 of their 5 home games finish UNDER in 2014 and 13 of the last 17 overall.

Both of these offenses are way down from last year. Washington is averaging just 30.3 ppg after putting up 37.9 ppg in 2013. The 30.3 ppg for Washington is also misleading, as they played a soft non-conference schedule that saw them score 44 on Illinois, 45 on Georgia State and 59 on Eastern Washington. Oregon State averaged 34.8 ppg last season, yet are scoring just 27.6 ppg in 2014. The key here is that the Huskies are a better defensive team at home and Oregon State's offense isn't nearly as effective on the road. Adding to this is that the UNDER is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 home games vs excellent passing teams averaging 274 or more yards/game.

There's also a strong system in play. The Under is 62-32 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total set between 49.5 and 56 points, where you have a strong offensive team averaging 390 to 440 ypg (Oregon St) against a team that's allowing 390 to 440 ypg at least 8 games into the season. That's a 66% system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF SEC Total of the of the Month on Missouri/Tennessee UNDER

The books have inflated this total due to both teams coming off a high scoring game.The Volunteers and Kentucky combined for 66 points, which was their third straight game that finished over the total. The previous two being a 20-34 final against Alabama, 45-42 to South Carolina, and 50-16 over Kentucky.

Missouri on the other hand played in a game last week against Texas A&M where 61 combined points were scored. The Tigers have been more of a defensive minded team and haven't seen consecutive games go over the total since the opening two weeks when they put up big numbers in wins over South Dakota State and Toledo.

The big here is that both of these teams have been much better defensively than offensively in 2014. The Tigers are 21st in total defense (340.6 ypg) compared to just 107th in total offense (355.8 ypg). Missouri is also giving up just 20.1 ppg against teams that average 29.2 Adding to this is the Tigers allow just 3.4 yards per rush against teams giving up 4.7 and only 6 yards per pass against teams who average 7.2.  

Tennessee is 37th in total defense (363.7 ypg) compared to just 81st in total offense (381.5 ypg) and are giving up just 24.1 ppg against teams who average 31.4 per game. They allow just 4.1 yards per rush against teams gaining 4.8 and 6.9 yards per pass against quarterbacks who normally throw for 7.4.  

Adding to the offensive struggles of these two teams is that Missouri averages 4.6 yards per rush against teams that give up 4.5 and throws for 6.1 against teams that allow 6.9, while the Vols gain 3.5 yards per rush against teams allowing 3.8 and throw for 6.5 against teams who give up the same.

Anytime you can get two average offenses with excellent defenses, more times than not it's going to lead to a lower scoring game than expected. UNDER is 13-5 in Missouri's last 18 games off an upset win as an underdog and 16-5 in Tennessee head coach Butch Jones' last 21 when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. These two trends combine to form a 74% (29-10) system on this one to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Mountain West Conference Total of the Month on San Diego St/Air Force UNDER

The books have set the total too high in Friday's Mountain West matchup between Air Force and San Diego State. These two teams have a history of scoring less than the mark the books set. In the last 17 meetings, 11 have finished below the total, including 5 of the last 6. I'm expecting the trend to continue as both of these teams come in playing extremely well on the defensive side of the ball. 

Air Force comes in ranked 47th in total defense (378.2 ypg) and the strength of their stop unit is their run defense, which ranks 37th, allowing 140.2 ypg. That's important to note because the Aztecs offensively almost exclusively rely on the run. San Diego State ranks 34th in rushing (205.4 ypg), compared to just 107th in passing (181.8 ypg). 

San Diego State has even better overall numbers defensively. The Aztecs are 30th in total defense, giving up just 349.1 ypg. While they are giving up more rushing yards than passing yards, they a lot of that has to do with the teams they have played. They are giving up just 151 rushing yards/game against teams averaging 171 ypg and allowing only 3.8 yards/carry versus teams averaging 4.3 ypc. 

The other big key to this game finishing below the mark is that both of these teams are one-dimensional offensively with the running game. Even if it doesn't work, both are going to keep pounding the rock. That's a perfect scenario for a low scoring game, as it should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up a lot clock. 

The UNDER is 20-7 in San Diego State's last 27 games against poor passing teams who are averaging 150 or less yards/game through air, 13-4 in their last 17 off a win and 9-1 in their last 10 overall. These trends combine to form a 78% (42-12) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Week 12 Total Annihilator on North Texas/UTEP UNDER

This game should fly UNDER the total of 52.5. The only thing that has kept North Texas competitive is their defense and UTEP is doing everything they can to keep their defense off the field.

North Texas comes in ranked 112th in the country in total offense (334.2 ypg). The Mean Green simply don't have the offensive weapons to put up a lot of points. Defensively this team plays extremely hard under Dan McCarney and I would expect to see one of their best efforts against the Miners after last weeks 31-10 win over Florida Atlantic.

UTEP head coach Sean Kugler knows that his team can't try and beat teams in shootouts, which is why his focus offensively has been to use the running game and sustain drives. The Miners come in averaging 45 rush attempts to just 23 pass attempts. That plays right into the strength of the North Texas defense, which is only allowing 3.9 yards/rush on the season. This all points to a lot of long time killing drives for UTEP and there's no guarantee they will be able to finish them off with points.

As for North Texas, if they can simply score 20 points it would be considered a success, especially on the road where they are averaging just 18.2 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that the Miners have put up better numbers defensively at home and should be highly motivated after last year's ugly 7-41 loss to the Mean Green.

The UNDER is 15-3 in North Texas' last 18 games off a win by 10 or more points and 9-2 in their last 11 with a total set at 49.5 to 56 points. The UNDER is also 5-1 in UTEP's last 6 games against a team with a losing record and 7-3-1 in their last 11 conference games.

Adding to all of this is a big time system. The UNDER is 58-26 since 1992 in games where you have a total of 49.5 to 56 points where one of the teams comes in off a home conference win who has only won between 25% to 40% of their games on the season (North Texas). That's a 69% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

3* East Carolina/Cincinnati Total DOMINATOR on UNDER

It's easy to look at these two offenses and assume that this game is going to fly over the total, but I don't believe that will be the case at all. Conditions for this game are far from ideal for a shootout. Temperature at kickoff is expect to be just 30 degrees with a wind chill in the low 20's.

Cold weather typically hurts the passing game more than anything and both of these offenses are centered around their ability to pick up yards through the air. Cincinnati ranks 15th in passing (308.5 ypg), compared to just 73rd in rushing (157.4 ypg). It's even more drastic for East Carolina, who is 3rd in the country in passing (361.3 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that the Pirates are 8th in the country, giving up just 97 ypg against the run. Cincinnati's run defense hasn't been great overall, but they are allowing just 3.9 ypg at home and East Carolina leading rusher Breon Allen is playing at less than 100%.

The other aspect here that I believe will lead to a low-scoring game is the magnitude of this game. Both of these teams are 3-1 inside conference play and with Memphis leading the way at 4-1, a loss here would be devastating for both teams' chances of winning the AAC. Big games like this tend to see a lot more effort defensively and with the conditions I expect that to hold true.

There's a nice system in play here. UNDER is 31-11 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total set at 63 or more points after the first month of the season with a team that has gone under the total by 35 or more combined points in their last 3 games (East Carolina). That's a 75% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Ball State/UMass NCAAF Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in tonight's MAC showdown between Ball State and UMass.These two teams are not familiar with one another, as they haven't played since 1988. That's a big advantage for the two offenses and with two poor defenses it should lead to a lot of points.

The Minutemen come in averaging 30.8 ppg behind an offensive attack that ranks 6th in the country in passing at 331.2 ypg. Ball State is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.4% of their attempts on the road and are giving up a ridiculous 259 yards and 5.7 yards/carry on the ground away from home. Add in the Cardinals not exactly being motivated for this contest after a crushing loss to Northern Illinois and UMass' offense should have no problem sustaining drives and putting points on the scoreboard.

The other big key here is that the reason the Minutemen are 2-7 with such a potent offense, is they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. UMass is giving up 35.0 points and 458.4 yards per game on the season. They aren't any better against the run (200.6 ypg, 97th) than they are the pass (257.8 ypg, 92nd). Even though Ball State's offense ranks just 102nd with 357.8 ypg, they are going to be able to move the football against the poor UMass defense.

The Minutemen have seen their games go OVER the total in 7 of 9 contests this year and all 6 of their games following a loss. The OVER is also 7-2 in Ball State's last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home and 7-2 in their last 9 conference games.

We also see a nice system in play. The OVER is 64-29 over the last 10 seasons in a game where you have a total of 56.5 to 63 points with a team that is averaging 400 or more yards/game (UMass) that has accumulated 450 or more total yards in each of their last 4 contests. That's a 69% long-term system. Take the OVER!

3* Alabama/LSU SEC Total Annihilator on UNDER

I believe the total for this game has been inflated due to last year's game, which saw a combined 55 points. Each of the previous 5 meetings between these two teams resulted in games that saw 45 or fewer points, which is what I'm expecting on Saturday.

Rivalry games almost always tend to be lowering scoring than what you would expect and I believe that's going to be the case here. While Alabama has the 12th ranked offense in the country (508.9 ypg) and are 19th in scoring (36.5 ppg), they have not been the same team offensively on the road. Alabama's averages drop down to just 24.5 points and 407 yards per game away from home. LSU on the other hand is only giving up 8.5 ppg and 279 ypg at home. 

On the flip side of this, Alabama's defense should have no problem shutting down an LSU offense that is pretty one dimensional. The Tigers come in 26th in rushing (225.7 ypg), but are just 98th in passing (188.6 ypg). They average 49 rush attempts to just 21 attempts a game. That plays right into the strength of the Crimson Tide defense, which comes in 2nd in the country against the run (78.1 ypg). Alabama has also allowed just 2.7 yards/carry against opponents who average 4.3. LSU is only gaining 4.6 ypc against teams that are giving up 4.3. That's a pretty good sign that the Crimson Tide's defense will dominate this game when they are on the field.

Another huge factor to this matchup and it finishing below the total, is the fact that both of these teams come in off a bye. Each has had a full two weeks to prepare for the opposition and that should give the edge to the defenses.

UNDER is 27-12 in Alabama's last 39 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 22-8 in their last 30 off 3 straight conference wins. The UNDER is also 10-2 in LSU's last 12 home games off a bye and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a close conference win by 7 points or less.

We also have a strong system in play. The UNDER is 35-13 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 points when the road team is coming off a bye. Combine that with LSU's 10-2 UNDER record at home off a bye and we have a Dynamite 75% (45-15) system. Take the UNDER!

5* College Football Total of the Year on Florida/Vanderbilt UNDER

The Gators come into this game off a shocking 38-20 win over rival Georgia, has given this team a new sense of life, especially on defense. What they did to the Bulldogs offense was impressive and I look for them to carry that momentum over with another strong defensive effort against Vanderbilt.

Stopping the Commodores offense doesn't exactly figure to be too difficult for the Gators. Vanderbilt comes into this game ranked 113th in the country in scoring (19.9 ppg) and 117th in total offense (294.2 ypg). In the Commodores last three conference games, they have totaled a combined 38 points. I believe it's going to be a struggle for them to reach double-digits, which is why I love the UNDER in this matchup. 

As good as Florida's offense was against Georgia, I'm not sold that their all the sudden an offensive juggernaut. The Gators attempted a mere 6 passes the entire game, as they rushed it 60 times for 418 yards. They clearly don't trust Treon Harris throwing. That sets up perfect for the UNDER. Florida should dominate the time of possession, which will limit the possessions and have them running out the clock late.

The big key here is that I just don't see the Gators playing with the same intensity on offense as they did last week against Georgia. There's also not as big a need to score against a team like Vanderbilt. Even if Florida comes out strong offensively, I don't see them scoring enough to push this over the total. The Commodores are going to play hard at home. Vanderbilt is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry at home, compared to 4.4 on the season. It's also a lot easier to defend the run when you know there's not a threat of the pass.

UNDER is 5-2 in Vanderbilt's last 7 conference games and 10-1 in their last 11 home games after they allowed 6.5 or more yards/play in their last game. These trends combine to form a solid 83% (15-3) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Week 11 Total No Brainer on Louisville/Boston College UNDER

I believe we are catching some great value on the total here based on last week's games for both of these teams. Louisville put up 31 points against Florida State and Boston College hung 33 versus Virginia Tech. Both of these teams are built around their defense and I'm expecting to see both of these offenses struggle to do much of anything on Saturday.

Boston College comes in ranked 12th in total defense (312.5 ypg), while Louisville is 6th (280.6 ypg). The big key here is that both of these defenses excel against the run. The Eagles are 4th in the country (88.9 ypg) and are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 3.8. The Cardinals are 3rd in the country against the run (78.7 ypg) and are allowing a mere 2.7 yards/carry. This is important to note, because both of these teams lean heavily on their running games. Louisville averages 39 rush attempts a game, while Boston College averages 50.

This should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up clock. Adding to this is the fact that when these two teams to put together a drive, there's a good chance it will end in a field goal. 18 of Louisville's 32 offensive touchdowns have come on the ground and 24 of Boston College's 32 have come via the run.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Louisville's last 9 road games, 12-3 in their last 15 versus conference opponents and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after playing in a game where 70 or more total points were scored. The UNDER is also 30-12 in Boston College's last 42 when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4, 36-18 in their last 54 against teams outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and 20-7-1 in their last 28 after a win.

There's also a strong system in play. The UNDER is 148-88 over the last 10 seasons in a game involving two good teams who are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play at least 8 games into the season. That's a 63% system. Take the UNDER!

3* UCLA/Washington Pac-12 Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game today between the Huskies and Bruins. We just saw UCLA play in a game against Arizona with a combined score of 17-7. I know one performance doesn't make a season, but I look for the Bruins to carry over that momentum on defense against a Washington offense that is averaging just 22.4 ppg inside conference play.

The Huskies have the 94th ranked offense in the country and are almost exclusively looking to run the football. Washington is 49th in rushing 185.4 ypg) compared to just 104th in passing (179.4 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the UCLA defense. The Bruins are 100th against the pass (257.4 ypg), but are a respectable 58th against the run (157.4 ypg).

On the flip side of this, the Huskies might come in ranked just 76th in total defense (409.7 ypg), but they are 53rd in scoring (24.4 ppg) and 17th in total defense. The big key here for me is that Washington has a dominant defensive line that should be able to take advantage of a weak UCLA offensive line, especially playing at home in a big night game. Hundley isn't going to have to time to pass and it's going to force the Bruins to turn to the running game.

UNDER is 3-0-1 in UCLA's 4 games this season against a team with a winning record, 11-1 in Washington's last 12 home games against a team with a winning record, 8-1 in the Bruins last 9 road games, 11-3 in Washington's last 14 home games on Saturday and a perfect 8-0 in the Huskies last 8 home games after they played in a contest where 60 or more total points were scored. These trends combine to form a 91% (41-4) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Mountain West Total of the Year on Wyoming/Utah St UNDER

Anytime you see a low total like this, the publics’ first reaction is to take the over, especially after they see both teams put up big numbers offensively last time out. It’s usually a good sign that the value is with the UNDER and I definitely feel like that’s the case in this matchup.

Utah State is only averaging 27.6 ppg on the season and were fortunate to put up as many points as they did last week against Hawaii. The Aggies not only had a defensive touchdown, but three of their four offensive touchdowns came on plays of 35+ yards. Starting quarterback Kent Myers, who is 4th on the depth chart and playing because of injury, went 14 of 15 passing with 3 touchdowns. While Utah State may have found a gem in Myers, he’s not going to be that efficient in back-to-back games.

Wyoming is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 59.2% of their attempts for just 5.7 yards/completion at home this season. The Cowboys are also allowing just 17.7 ppg at home, compared to 30.6 ppg on the road. It’s also worth noting that if you take away the 48 points Wyoming allowed to Oregon and 56 they gave up to Michigan State, they go from giving up 30.6 ppg to just 24.4 ppg.

The Aggies defensively are a solid unit and have been equally as impressive at home as they have on the road. Utah State ranks 26th in the country in scoring defense (21.0 ppg) on the season and are only giving up 21.8 ppg away from home. Adding to this is the fact that they have held each of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. There’s every reason to believe the Aggies can shutdown Wyoming’s offense. The Cowboys are just 79th in total offense (382.2 ypg) and 102nd in scoring offense (22.9 ppg).

UNDER is 22-10 in Utah State’s last 32 games against poor defensive teams who are giving up 425 or more total yards/game and 9-2 in their last 11 against strong passing teams that are completing 58% or more of their attempts. UNDER is also 7-3 in Wyoming’s last 10 home games and 12-3 in their last 15 games after throwing for more than 280 yards in their last contest.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 54-22 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where you have a road team that is allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game and are off a game where they outrushed their previous opponent by 125 or more yards. That's a 71% system backing this play to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* MAC Total of the Month on Ball St/Northern Illinois OVER

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks tonight in this MAC showdown between Northern Illinois and Ball State. Both of these teams have struggled defensively in 2014. The Huskies come in 72nd (402.7 ypg), while the Cardinal are 74th (404.4 ypg).

Looking at the Ball State offensive numbers, you might be wondering how the Cardinals will provide enough to push this over the mark. Those don't watch Ball State closely, likely are unware of the quarterback change that's been made. Jack Milas has started each of the last 3 games and has throw for 749 yards and 5 touchdowns. During this stretch the Cardinals have scored no fewer than 32 points.

Milas put 326 yards and 4 scores against Western Michigan, which is a good sign that he can take advantage of a shaky Northern Illinois secondary that ranks 90th versus the pass (246.9 ypg). Just a couple weeks ago we saw the Huskies give up 41 points to a Miami (OH) offense that is currently ranked 92nd in the country in total offense (371.6 ypg).

As for the Northern Illinois offense, they should also have plenty of success moving the football. The Huskies strength is a rushing attack that ranks 13th in the nation at 269.4 ypg. The weakness of the Ball State defense is stopping the run, as they rank a mere 88th in the country, giving up an average of 188.0 ypg on the ground. Northern Illinois is averaging 5.3 yards/carry, while the Cardinals are giving up 5.0 yards/carry against teams who are only averaging 4.4 ypc.

It's also worth noting that if you look back over this series, over the last 4 meetings the fewest these two teams have combined to score is 58 points. Each of the other 3 games saw at least 75. History suggest that when these two teams face off, a lot of points should be expected.

There's a nice system in play as well. The OVER is 35-10 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a conference road win against an opponent off an upset win by 10 or more points as an underdog. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!

4* Big 12 Total of the Month on UNDER

While recent meetings between these two teams have been high-scoring, I'm not expecting a shootout in Manhattan this time around. Kansas State is going to be all business as they try to remain undefeated in Big 12 play and keep their hopes alive for a spot in the 4-team playoff.

With the Wildcats focused and the advantage of playing at home, I look for them to have no problem keeping Oklahoma State's offense in check. The Cowboys have managed just 19 points in their last two games, as they are no longer playing the other bottom-feeders in the Big 12. Kansas State just pitched a shutout last week against Texas, limiting the Longhorns to just 196 yards of total offense.

The one thing Oklahoma State quarterback Daxx Garman has been able to with some success is throw the deep ball. Bill Synder will have his defense prepared for that and with no running game to fall back on it's going to be difficult for the Cowboys to sustain drives.

The big key here is that I believe the Oklahoma State defense can put up some resistance against the Kansas State offense. The Wildcats aren't an overly explosive offense. They rank right in the middle of the pack in both rushing (178.3 ypg, 53rd) and passing (246.3 ypg, 52nd). Their primary focus is running the football, which is evident by the 41 rush attempts they average per game. The one thing the Cowboys defense has done well is stop the run, as they are a respectable 38th in the country.

I just feel we are getting a very favorable number here based on how poorly the Oklahoma State defense has looked the last two weeks against TCU and West Virginia. There's a solid system backing this up, as the UNDER is 57-26 (69%) in games where you have a total set between 49.5 to 56 points with a strong offensive team that's averaging 390 to 440 yards/game (Kansas St) against a poor defensive team that is allowing 390 to 440 yards/game at least 8 games into the season. Take the UNDER!

5* SEC Total of the Year on Kentucky/Missouri UNDER

I'm not expecting to see a lot of points scored in this one. Neither one of these teams feature a potent offense and both come in with respectable defenses. Missouri is giving up just 20.5 ppg and rank 37th in total defense (350.9 ypg) and Kentucky is allowing 24.8 ppg and are 54th in total defense (378.2 ypg).

The only conference game in which Missouri has scored more than 24 points was a 42-13 win over Florida. However, the Tigers benefited from 4 non-offensive touchdowns. They finished with a mere 7 first downs and 119 yards of total offense. That game against Florida is also the only SEC game for Missouri that's seen a combined score of more than 41 points.

Kentucky has put up some respectable numbers offensively, scoring 30 or more in 3 of their 5 conference games, but they only managed 3-points on the road against LSU and just 20 in regulation at Florida. This is also a difficult spot for the Wildcats coming off that huge game against No. 1 Mississippi State.

UNDER is 28-12 in Kentucky's last 40 road games in the second half of the season, 11-3 in Missouri's last 14 home games when listed as a favorite, 10-4 in the Wildcats last 14 after a loss, 8-1 in the Tigers' last 9 after a win and 4-1 in Kentucky's last 5 after allowing more than 40 points. These trends combine to form a Massive 74% (61-21) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Rivalry Game Total Annihilator on Georgia/Florida UNDER

I believe there's some great value on the UNDER in this matchup. Each of the last 3 meetings in this rivalry have seen a combined score of 44 or less points. Part of the reason we have a high total here is the Gators allowed 42 points in their last game against Missouri. However, the 42 points wasn't their defenses fault. Florida's defense held the Tigers to just 7 first downs and 119 yards of total offense, as Missouri scored 4 non-offensive touchdowns. 

Both of these teams come in ranked inside the top 15 in the country in total defense. Florida is 12th, allowing just 317.4 ypg and Georgia is 15th, giving up just 320.5 ypg.

I don't really have to say a whole lot about why the Bulldogs defense can shut down the Gators poor excuse of an offense, but there could be some concern here with Georgia' high-power offense piling on the points. I just don't see that being the case. Huge rivalry games like this typically are low scoring and a big added factor is that Florida comes in off a bye, giving them two full weeks to prepare for this contest.

Even though both Georgia and Florida are at their strongest against the run, I don't see either team abandoning their running game. This should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up the clock. The Gators are just 90th in the country in passing (198.5 ypg) and Georgia is even worse at 108th (171.3 ypg). This should also limit the number of explosive plays, which can destroy a solid UNDER play rather quickly.

There's some strong trends suggesting this one to finish below the mark based on each teams' previous performance. The UNDER is 12-2 in Florida's last 14 after allowing 175 or less total yards in their last game and 13-4 in Georgia's last 17 road games after they played in a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. The UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in the Gators last 6 away games after a contest where they had 3 or more turnovers and 12-4 in the Bulldogs last 16 after a contest where they forced 4 or more turnovers. All these trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (43-10) system. Take the UNDER!

5* ACC Total of the Year on BC/Virginia Tech UNDER

We are seeing an extremely low total for a college football game and for good reason. For starters the conditions in Blacksburg aren't expected to be favorable for either offense. Temperature around kickoff is expected be around 40-degrees with steady rain and 10-15 mph wind.

Even with ideal conditions I wouldn't expect these two teams to eclipse 40 combined points. Boston College comes in ranked 8th in total defense (299.8 ypg), while Virginia Tech is sitting at 26th (342.3 ypg).

With the conditions not exactly favoring the passing game, both of these teams are going to look to establish the running game, which is going to eat up the clock. We have seen Virgina Tech's offense really struggle against better competition of late, as they managed just 16-points at Pittsburgh and a mere 6 at home against Miami.

The big key here is that we should get an inspired effort defensively from the Hokies at home off two straight losses. Adding to this is the fact that defensive coordinator Bud Foster and the Hokies have had some extra time to prepare for BC after playing last Thursday.

UNDER is 35-19 in Boston College's last 54 road games when listed as the underdog, 14-4 in their last 18 road games after holding their last opponent to 125 or less yards and 20-6-1 in their last 27 after a SU win. UNDER is also 20-7 in Hokies last 27 home games against a team with a winning road record, 15-4 in their last 19 as a home favorite of 7 points or less and 10-1 in their last 11 after rushing for less than 125 yards in each of their last two games. These trends combine to form a 74% (114-41) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Pitt/Duke ACC Total No Brainer on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle Saturday between these two teams. The fact that oddsmakers have set this total at just 50 points after last year's 113-point explosion is a good indicator that the books are expecting a lot more defense to be played. Keep in mind the UNDER is 5-1 in Duke's last 6 games and 4-1 in Pittsburgh's last 5.

I definitely agree. Duke ranks 2nd in the ACC 4th in the country allowing just 15.1 ppg. Only twice all season have the allowed more than 20 points and those came against two explosive offenses in Miami (FL) and Georgia Tech. Pittsburgh is only allowing 23.3 ppg and prior to giving up 56 last week to Georgia Tech were only giving up 15.0 ppg. The Panthers also come in ranked 16th in total defense, allowing just 321.0 ypg.

Not only do we have two strong defenses facing off, but we have two offenses that are looking to run the football and control the time of possession. The Blue Devils come in ranked 32nd in rushing (218.0 ypg) and are averaging 38 rush attempts a game. Pittsburgh is 20th in rushing (233.9 ypg) with an average of 44 attempts per game. The clock is going to be constantly running and I'm expecting a lot of length drives that result in no points or field goals.

UNDER is 32-17 in Duke's last 49 when listed as a road underdog, 6-0 in their last 6 conference games, and 7-1 in their last 8 after a SU win. The UNDER is also 7-1 in Pitts last 8 following a SU loss and perfect 6-0 off an upset loss as a favorite.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 57-26 in games with a total of 49.5 to 56  points at least 8 games into the season where you have a strong offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) against a poor defensive team (390-440 ypg). That's a 69% system. Take the UNDER!

4* American Athletic Total of the Month on UCF/Temple UNDER

I'm expecting a very low scoring game here, as we have two bad offensive teams against two strong defenses. Temple comes in with the 94th ranked offense (370.7 ypg), yet are a respectable 31st in total defense (345.3 ypg). There's an even bigger difference for UCF, which is 121st in total offense (291.0 ypg) and 20th in total defense (326.2 ypg).

Just looking at the points allowed for both of these teams, it wouldn't come as a surprise if we didn't see either team reach 20 points in this one. Temple is allowing just 16.0 ppg on the road and UCF is only giving up 14.7 ppg at home. Even if both teams give up a touchdown more than what their average, that comes out to just 45 points, which still has us under a field of the current total.

You might think this is a good spot for the Knight's offense against a Temple defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 59.3% of their passes, but that puts us in a strong situation for this one to go below the mark. The UNDER is 21-9 in UCF's last 30 home games against teams who are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 58% or more of their pass attempts.

There's also a strong system in play here. The UNDER is 69-128 in games where you have a team that committed 3 or more turnovers in their last game against an opponent who had a turnover margin of -2 or worse in each of their last two. The key here is that this system comes into play for both teams, making it that much stronger. It's a 65% system both ways. Take the UNDER!

3* Big 12 NCAAF Total Dominator on Oklahoma St/W Virginia OVER

I believe we are catching a good number here due to both of these finishing below the total in each of their last 3 games. Last time these two teams met in Stillwater, they combined for 89 points in a 55-34 win for the Cowboys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a very similar outcome in 2014.

Oklahoma State is no where near as bad offensively as what we saw last week against TCU. Prior to that game the Cowboys had scored at least 27 points in each of their previous 6 games and 4 of those saw them score 35+. What you can't overlook here is that West Virginia is not as strong defensively on the road as they are at home. The Mountaineers are giving up just 27.1 points and 382 yards on the season, yet are giving up an average of 34.7 points and 517 yards on the road. Adding to this is the fact that Oklahoma State is a much stronger team offensively at home than on the road. They are scoring 41.2 points on 471 yards at home, compared to just 33.1 points and 397 yards on the season.

As for West Virginia their offense has traveled well and Oklahoma State's offense hasn't been a whole lot better at home compared to on the road. No reason not to expect the Mountaineers to come close to their season average of 37.3.

OVER is 2-1 in the Mountaineers 3 road games this season and 2-1 in the Cowboys 3 home games this season. We also see that the OVER is 12-3 in Oklahoma State's last 15 after a 2 game road trip, 37-17 in their last 54 conference home games and 17-5 in their last 22 with a line of +3 to -3.  We also see that the OVER is 24-6 in the Cowboys last 30 home games against a strong offensive team that's averaging 425 or more total yards/game.

Strong system in play as well. OVER is 41-15 in games where you have a team who allowed 6.25 or more yards/play in their last game (Cowboys) against an opponent who has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their last 4 games. That's a 73% system on this one to finish above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on SMU/Memphis UNDER

This may seem like a low total for a game that involves SMU and their awful defense, but I believe the books have set it low for good reason. SMU has scored 6 or fewer points in all put one game this season, including just 6-points last week against a bad Cincinnati defense. Memphis is strong defensively and have had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, giving little reason to expect SMU's offense will be able to do much of anything.

If Memphis wanted to, they could potentially eclipse this total on their own, but there's no reason for the Tigers to run up the score. Look for Memphis to be content running the ball and moving the chains on the ground, which plays right into their strength, as they come in averaging 48 rush attempts per game. As you know, lots of running typically leads to a quick game that finishes under the total.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Memphis jumped out to a huge lead early and got some of their backup players some playing time. Keep in mind they have a quick turnaround with a home game against Tulsa on Friday.

It's also worth noting that Memphis hasn't been as effective offensively on the road. The Tigers come in averaging 33.7 points and 429 yards per game on the season, yet are scoring just 26.3 points on 394 yards away from home. Coupled with a strong defense it's a big reason why we have seen the UNDER go 7-2 in Memphis' last 9 road games.

There's also a strong system in play favoring this game to go below the mark. The UNDER is 31-11 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 points with a road team playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. That's a 74% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Late Night Pac-12 Over/Under Crusher on Oregon/Wash OVER

Even with Washington's strong defense, I'm expecting a shootout on Saturday between the Ducks and Huskies. Each of the last two meetings in this series have seen a combined score of at least 69 points. Washington had a strong defense in 2012 and it resulted in a total of just 62.5 points at Oregon. The Ducks put up 52 and the total flew over with 73 combined points.

What a lot of people overlooked in Oregon's loss to Arizona, which saw them score just 24 points, was they were without their top 3 tackles. They got back Jake Fisher last week and it made a huge difference, as they returned to form with 42 points on the road against UCLA. Washington has a great pass rush, but they also give up a lot of big plays through the air. The Huskies rank just 97th in the country against the pass, allowing 274.7 ypg. Their attacking mentality could also open up some big plays for Mariota scrambling out of the pocket.

The real key here is that Oregon's defense is not as good as what we have seen in years past. The Ducks come in ranked 73rd against the run (174.2 ypg) and 108th versus the pass (295.5 ypg). While Washington doesn't have a great offense, they should be able to score in the mid to upper 20s to push this well over the mark of 64.5.

There's a strong system in play favoring this game to finish above the total. The OVER is 33-9 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a conference road win (Oregon) against an opponent off a win by 10+ points as an underdog. That's a 79% system. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Missouri/Florida UNDER

Both of these teams have better defenses than they do offenses. Missouri comes in ranked 57th in total defense (380.7 ypg) and just 106th in total offense (357.9 ypg). Florida is 40th in total defense (357.0 ypg) and 90th in total offense (385.0 ypg).

Missouri put up some big offensive numbers early in the year against weak competition, but have not been able to get anything going of late. They managed just 27 points at home against a Indiana defense that is not good at all, had just 7 points before a couple of late touchdowns against an average South Carolina defense and last week managed just 147 total yards in their loss to Georgia.

Florida hasn’t been much better. While the Gators scored 21 points at Alabama, they had a fumble returned for a touchdown and their two other scores also came on Crimson Tide turnovers. Florida then managed just 10 points at Tennessee and their 27 against LSU isn’t impressive based on how bad the Tigers have looked defensively inside conference play.

Offensively the Gators have little to no threat of a passing attack, as Jeff Driskel continues to be one of the biggest bust in Florida history (#1 ranked QB out of high school). Driskel has completed just 55% of his attempts with just 6 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Missouri’s defense is more than capable of slowing down the Gators offensive attack.

The Tigers are giving up 22.8 ppg against opponents who are averaging 31.0 ppg. Florida is allowing just 22.2 ppg against teams who are averaging 29.5 ppg. What’s really impressive is how good these two teams have been against the run. Missouri is giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams average 5.1 and the Gators are allowing just 2.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.2.

I don’t expect to see either offense doing much of anything and when they do I look for both teams to have to settle for field goals. I wouldn’t be shocked if both of these teams failed to reach 20 points.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Tigers' last 4, 8-2 in Missouri’s last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home and 11-5 in the Gators last 16 games following a contest in which they failed to cover the spread. These trends combine to form a 77% (23-7) system. Take the UNDER!

5* ACC Over/Under Total of the Year on BC/Clemson UNDER

This might seem like an extremely low total, but I think there's a lot of value in the UNDER with Clemson not having the services of talented freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a broken finger in last week's game against Louisville. While the Tigers went on to score 23 points, the offense managed just 9 points. Their two touchdowns came on a 72-yard punt return and fumble recovery in the endzone. The real telling stat for Clemson was the 12 first downs and mere 229 yards of total offense they managed. Senior quarterback Cole Stoudt has some experience, but is no where close to Watson in terms of talent.

Hard to imagine the Tigers offense getting on track against a strong Boston College defensive unit. The Eagles come in ranked 22nd in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 8th in total defense (289. ypg). I'm also not expecting to see a whole lot out of Boston College's offense, as Clemson comes in ranked 35th in scoring defense (21.2 ppg) and 7th in total defense (286.0 ypg). Even had Watson played I don't think this would have been a high-scoring affair.

Another key here is that both of these teams are excellent against the run and do a great job of not giving up the big play. Boston College is allowing just 3.0 yards/rush and 4.4 yards/play, while Clemson is giving up just 3.4 yards/rush and 5.0 yards/play. Not only are both offenses going to struggle to stay to sustain drives, they will likely have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

It's also worth mentioning that last year these two teams combined for just 38 points and both have lost big time offensive players. The Tigers parted ways with their all-time leading passer (Tajh Boyd) and receiver (Sammy Watkins), while BC lost their all-time leading rusher (Andre Williams).

UNDER is 36-18 in Clemson's last 54 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game and 13-3 in Boston College's last 16 home games against teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/pass.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 33-11 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a team that outgained their previous opponent by 125 or more yards (BC) against an opponent that managed just 3.25 or less yards/play in their last game. That's a 75% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Virginia/Duke ACC Total Dominator on UNDER

Both of these teams have had a tendency to finish UNDER the total in 2014. Virginia has gone under the mark in 3 of their 5 games and Duke has finished below the total in 4 of 5. The only Blue Devil game that finished over was a 47-13 win over Tulane (total 52.5), where Duke had 2 interceptions returned for a touchdown in the 4th quarter.

One of the things that I really like here is that we have two teams who are both looking to establish the run. Virginia comes in averaging 42 rush attempts/game and Duke is right behind at 39 attempts/game. This should lead to a lot of empty possessions with big chunks of time ran off the clock.

Virginia comes in with the 6th ranked run defense in the country, giving up just 91.5 ypg on a mere 2.7 yards/carry. While Duke has rushed for at least 180 yards in 5 of their 6 games, a lot of that has to do with an easy schedule. They had just 85 yards against Miami a couple weeks back and ended up scoring just 10 points in the game (32 combined).

Duke doesn't have the best run defense, but I would expect them play inspired defensively at home, which has definitely been the case so far this season. The Blue Devils are only giving up 9.7 ppg on 339 ypg at home this season.

Leaning towards the UNDER in Virginia games has been a wise move over the years. The UNDER is 73-45 (62%) over the Cavaliers last 118 conference games. It's also 20-7 in their last 27 games following a win and 13-4 in their last 17 road games against teams who are allowing 17 or less points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Duke's last 7 after a win, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 conference games. These trends combine to form a solid 68% (121-58) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Total Annihilator on UCF/Tulane UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle in Saturday's matchup between Tulane and UCF. Both of these teams have struggled to get much of anything going offensively in 2014. The Knights are 95th in scoring (24.6 ppg) and 118th in total offense (302.6 ypg), while the Green Wave are 114th in scoring (19.7 ppg) and 101st in total offense (366.6 ypg).

It's also worth noting that both defenses match up well with the offensive strength of the other team. UCF's can't run the football (2.6 yards/carry), forcing them to throw a lot more than they would like. Tulane is 35th in the country against the pass, giving up just 213.2 ypg. As for the Green Wave, they have little to no threat of a passing attack, which plays right into the hands of a UCF defense that is giving up just 3.3 yards/carry (only 2.9 ypc at home).

Last week Tulane managed to score just 3-points at home against Connecticut, which is a great sign that the Green Wave will have a difficult time putting up points on the road against a motivated UCF team that is coming off a big win against BYU. It's also worth noting that the Knights have had a few extra days to prepare, as their game against the Cougars was played last Thursday.

UNDER is 5-1 in Tulane's last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-0-1 in their last 5 after scoring 20 points or less last time out. The UNDER is also 4-0 in UCF's last 4 conference games and 6-1 in their last 7 after passing for more than 280 yards in their last game. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 90% (19-2) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Weekday NCAAF Total of the Year on Pitt/Va Tech UNDER

Forget the side, the value here is on this game to go UNDER the total. Both Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. The Hokies come in ranked 21st in total defense (325.1 ypg) and 23rd in scoring (19.8 ppg), while the Panthers are 4th in total defense (277.5 ypg) and 17th in scoring (19.0 ppg).

The big key here is that both of these teams primary focus offensively is to establish the run. Virginia Tech is averaging 42 rush attempts a game and Pittsburgh is handing it off 46 times a game. That's a perfect recipe to kill the clock and keep points off the scoreboard when you have to strong defenses like this.

Another aspect that should help both defenses is the fact that each team was off last week, giving them 11 days to prepare for this matchup. Last year these two teams managed to combine for just 27 points and that was with 9 points scored in the final 3:30 of the 4th quarter. Together the two teams combined for just 525 total yards and 28 first downs.

UNDER is 34-18 in Pittsburgh's last 52 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards per game. Adding to the Hokies solid rush numbers is the fact that they are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.9.

UNDER is also 6-1 in Virginia Tech's last 7 games following a bye, 16-5 in their last 21 games on Thursday, 24-9-1 in their last 34 off a SU win, 4-1 in Pitts last 5 off a bye and 6-1 in Panthers last 7 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (56-17) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Tuesday Night NCAAF Over/Under Total Dominator on Lafayette/Texas St OVER

We have seen this total jump from the opening number of 60 to 63.5. I believe it's for good reason and there's still plenty of value on the OVER. This matchup features two defenses that have really been struggling. Texas State is giving up 423.2 ypg, while Lafayette is allowing 460 ypg. Neither team can stop the run. The Bobcats are surrendering 214.8 ypg and the Ragin' Cajuns are giving up 187.8 ypg. Both teams should be able to move the chains with ease and most importantly finish off drives with touchdowns.

Texas State comes in ranked 21st in total offense, averaging 497.6 ypg and have had equally strong success running (259.6 ypg) as they have passing (238.0 ypg). There could be some concern over Lafayette's offensive numbers, as they are just 84th in the country in total offense (390.2 ypg). However, that's due to playing two strong defenses on the road in Ole Miss and Boise State. The Ragin' Cajuns just put up 461 yards on Georgia State last time out and last year scored 48 points on 572 yards of offense against these Bobcats. It's also worth noting that Texas State has allowed at least 30 points in each of their games against FBS opponents.

Anytime there's a high total with the Ragin' Cajuns, it's been a wise move to focus in on the OVER. In Lafayette's last 15 games with a total of 63 or more points, the OVER has gone 12-3. The OVER is also 8-3 in the Ragin' Cajuns last 11 games off a bye and 19-9 in their last 28 games played in October (typically conference matchups). These trends combine to form a strong 72% (39-15) system. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF Late Night Over/Under Total Crusher on Nevada/Colorado St OVER

I believe the books have set the total too low in Saturday's showdown between Nevada and Colorado State. Both of these offenses come in with a lot of confidence. The Wolf Pack put up 46 points on 462 yards of total offense against Boise State and that was with Nevada committing 4 turnovers. Colorado State hung 42 points and 532 yards of total offense against Tulsa and that was with the Rams scoring just 14 points in the 2nd half.

There's plenty of reason to believe that both offenses will continue to light up the scoreboard, as both of these teams have not been great defensively. The Rams are giving 4.6 yards/carry and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts for a 7.7 average per completion. Nevada is giving up 5.0 yards/carry and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their attempts for a 7.5 average completion.

The fact that both these teams are giving up big chunks of yards, should have both offenses sustaining drives and most importantly finishing them off with touchdowns. Last year the two combined for just 55 points, but that was with a sluggish first half that saw just 13 combined points scored. I expect a lot more offense early, which should have this one flying over the total.

The OVER is 16-6 in Colorado State's last 22 games after going under the total in each of their previous 2 contests and 15-5 in their last 20 games when listed as a road favorite. It's also a perfect 6-0 in the Rams last 6 road games against teams who are allowing 425 or more yards of total offense. These trends combine to form a 77% (37-11) system. Take the OVER!

5* Mountain West Conference Total of the Month on Air Force/Utah State UNDER

I'm not expecting both of these to come out sluggish after knocking off a big rival last week. Air Force defeated Navy 30-21, while Utah State stunned previously unbeaten BYU 35-20. I also think the matchup favors a low scoring game.

Air Force is only allowing 21.2 ppg on the season and are carrying over a lot of momentum on the defensive side of the ball after holding Boise State to just 14 points and Navy to 21. Both of those teams provide more of an offensive punch than Utah State, which has lost star quarterback Chuckie Keeton to another season ending knee injury. Without Keeton the Aggies offense has become more dependable on the run. They come in averaging 37 rush attempts a game. Air Force has had their struggles against the pass, but are respectable 27th against the run (116.0 ypg).

It's no secret that the Falcons are a run-first team, as that's been the case for quite some time. Air Force comes in ranked 11th in the country in rushing (298.0 ypg) compared to 115th in passing (136.6 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the Utah State defense, which is 8th in the country against the run (93.4 ypg) and giving up just 2.6 yards/carry.

With both offenses coming in looking to establish the run and both defenses thriving at stopping the ground game, both teams are going to have to work for every first down. This should keep the clock running and limit the possessions, which is exactly what we are looking for.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in the Aggies last 5 against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 35-18 in Air Force's last 53 games played in October, 14-5 in Utah State's last 19 after a game where they covered the spread and 26-12 in the Aggies last 38 home games after the first month of the season. These trends combine to form a 70% (83-36) system. Take the UNDER!

3* TCU/Baylor NCAAF Total No Brainer on OVER

Last year these two teams combined for 79 points and 780 yards of total offense and that was with an off day from Baylor starting quarterback Bryce Petty and a TCU offense that saw Trevone Boykin not playing a significant role. It was the third straight meeting where these two teams combined for at least 70 points. I think we are going to see just as much offense, if not more, in Saturday's showdown between the only two undefeated teams in the Big 12.

It just so happens that Petty comes into this game off a poor showing against Texas, where he completed just 7 of 22 attempts for 111 yards. Even with their star quarterback off his game, Baylor was able to score 28 points, which is a credit to just how potent this offense can be. I look for Petty to bounce back in a big way at home against a TCU defense that just allowed 309 passing yards to Oklahoma's Trevor Knight, who is no where near as gifted as Petty and doesn't have the same caliber of weapons at his disposal.

There's been a lot made of Baylor's defense, which comes in ranked 5th in the country in scoring (12.4 ppg) and 4th in yards allowed (267.2 ypg). As impressive as those numbers are, it's a direct result of an unbelievable easy schedule to start the year. TCU comes in averaging 42.7 ppg on 516 yards of total offense and based on what the Horned Frogs were able to do against this Baylor defense last year without Boykin, I think the Bears are going to have a difficult time slowing this offense down.

Boykin comes into this contest completing 61.5% of his attempts with 1,176 yards and 10 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. He's also TCU's leading rusher with 260 yards and has scored 3 rushing touchdowns. In last week's game against a good Oklahoma defense, Boykin threw for 318 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushed for another 77 yards on 22 attempts.

There's plenty of trends backing this one to finish over the total. The OVER is 16-6 in Baylor's last 22 games against a top level team that's won more than 75% of their games, 13-4 in their last 17 against good run defenses that are allowing 120 or less yards/game, 20-8 in their last 28 against teams who average 250 or more passing yards/game 8-1 in their last 9 after allowing 14 points or less and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 with a total set between 63.5 to 70 points. These trends combine to form a 77% (63-19) system. Take the OVER!

3* UCLA/Oregon NCAAF Total Dominator on OVER

Both UCLA and Oregon underperformed last week in upset losses at home. The Ducks scored just 24 points in a 24-31 loss to Arizona, while the Bruins put up only 28 points in a 28-30 defeat to Utah. Even with those poor performances, Oregon still ranks 9th in scoring at 43.6 ppg and UCLA is 34th at 36.0 ppg. I believe their poor showings has created some nice value on the OVER.

Part of the problem for both of these teams has been the play of their offensive line. While both are still hurting up front, neither of these defenses figure to take advantage. This is not the same caliber of Oregon defense that we have seen in previous years. The Ducks are ranked 101st in the country in total defense, giving up 453.0 ypg. UCLA isn't a whole lot better. The Bruins are 86th in total defense, allowing 429.0 ypg.

Both UCLA and Oregon are built around the passing game with big time talent at the quarterback position. Oregon is 16th in the country in passing at 324.4 ypg and UCLA is 27th at 297.6 ypg. The big key here is that both of these teams have a horrible time stopping the pass. The Ducks are 115th (309.6 ypg) and the Bruins are 100th (271.0 ypg).

Prior to last year's matchup which saw just 56 total points scored (only 14 by UCLA), the previous two matchups in this series saw a combined score of at least 73 points.

OVER is 19-7-1 in Oregon's last 27 games following a SU loss and 36-15 in their last 51 after allowing more than 450 yards of total offense. It's also 5-1 in Bruins last 6 home games and 32-16 in their last 48 against teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/completion. These trends combine to form a 70% (87-38) system. Take the OVER!

3* Duke/Georgia Tech Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting more than enough offense here to push this game over the total. Duke comes in averaging 36.8 ppg on 446 yards of total offense and Georgia Tech is averaging 34.6 ppg on 430 yards of total offense. Duke had one of their worst offensive games of the season in last year's meeting and the two teams still combined for 52 points.

One of the reasons that I think the books have set this total lower than what it should be is because the Blue Devils come in ranked 8th in the country allowing just 13.6 ppg. That may seem impressive, but it's not. Duke has played one of the easiest schedules in the country to this point. They were extremely fortunate to hold Miami to just 22 points, as the Hurricanes had 426 yards of total offense. What killed Miami is they were just 2 of 13 on 3rd down.

I'm also expecting the Blue Devils' offense to put up some big numbers. Georgia Tech's defense is also not as good as advertised due to a soft schedule. The Yellow Jackets only returned 4 starters on defense and we have already seen them give up 528 yards to Georgia Southern at home and 424 yards to Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech is giving up 5.5 yards/rush and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.4% of their attempts for 8.0 yards/completion. Duke has had two full weeks to put together a gameplan for Georgia Tech's defense, which should have their offense clicking on all cylinders.

The OVER is 6-0 in Duke's last 6 games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 games and 6-0 Georgia Tech's last 6 home games against teams who are averaging 4.75 or more yards/rush.

We also see a strong system backing this one to finish above the total. The OVER is 45-17 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 56.5 to 63 points where you have the home team that has started out 4-0 or better. That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

4* BYU/UCF NCAAF Total No Brainer on UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it. BYU lost star quarterback and Heisman contender Taysom Hill for the season in last week's loss to Utah State. Hill was the one player the Cougars offense couldn't afford to lose. Hill had thrown for 975 yards and 7 touchdowns and was also the leading rusher with 460 yards and 8 touchdowns. His dual threat ability made BYU's offense extremely hard to defend.

UCF had a decent shot at slowing down the Cougars' offense even with Hill in the lineup. The Knights come in ranked 30th in total defense (334.3 ypg) and 14th against the run (106.0 ypg). What I really like is that UCF is giving up just 3.1 yards/carry. BYU backup Christian Stewart was just 10 of 29 for for 172 yards with 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions after replacing Hill against Utah State. Hill had gone 8 of 11 for 99 yards and 1 touchdown, so you can see the drop off in talent.

The pressure now falls on the BYU defense to keep them in games and this is an opponent that I believe they can dominate. UCF comes into this one with the 119th ranked offense in the country. They are having an equally difficult time running (102.5 ypg, 105th) as they are passing (178.5 ypg, 103rd). The Cougars have given up some big yardage in the passing game, but are 10th in the country against the run, allowing just 98.2 ypg. The Knights' run 36 times to just 22 pass attempts, so their focus is clearly on establishing the ground game.

With both defenses matching up well with the opposition, we should see a lot of drives that end in punts and field goal attempts, which should have this game flying under the total.

There's a strong system in play here. The UNDER is 50-18 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a good rushing team that's averaging 190 to 230 ypg (BYU) against a team with a good run defense that's allowing 100 to 140 ypg in non-conference matchups. That's a 74% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Nebraska/Michigan State Total No Brainer on UNDER

Last year these two teams combined for 69 points in a 41-28 Michigan State victory at Nebraska. That might have some looking to take the OVER at 58 this time around, but I think this one is going to be a lot more competitive and more of an offensive struggle for both teams.

Michigan State once again has a dominant defense and they matchup perfectly for what the Cornhuskers like to do offensively. Nebraska is 3rd in the country in rushing at 354.8 ypg, but the key is they run in 51 times compared to just 25 pass attempts. Michigan State is 4th against the run, allowing just 78.3 ypg and have went up against Oregon's potent ground game. They held the Ducks to just 173 yards on 40 attempts and would have put up better numbers had it not been 100 degrees, which really wore the Spartans defense down in the 2nd half.

The Spartans have put up some big numbers offensively, but they have come against awful competition. This is one of the better Nebraska defenses that we have seen and I expect them to keep Michigan State in check and force them into some long drives.

UNDER is 9-2 in Michigan State's last 11 games after outgaining their previous two opponents by 125 or more total yards and 13-5 in Nebraska's last 18 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. These trends combine to form a 75% (22-7) system. Take the UNDER!

5* ACC Over/Under Total of the Month on UNDER

Oddsmakers have set a low total here for a reason and I'm expecting this one to be a defensive battle the whole way. Neither one of these teams possess explosive offenses and both are sound defensively. Pittsburgh comes in 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 263.8 ypg, while Virginia is 32nd in total defense allowing just 334.8 ypg. The thing you have to keep in mind with the Cavaliers' numbers are they have faced 3 big time opponents in UCLA, Louisville and BYU.

One of the key matchups in this game is the Cavaliers run defense against James Connor and Pittsburgh's high-powered rushing attack. Virginia is 9th in the country against the run, giving up just 86.6 ypg. They are also allowing just 2.6 yards/carry. The Panthers come in averaging 48 rush attempts to just 23 pass attempts, so they are clearly focused on running the football. Even if Pittsburgh has minor success on the ground, which I think they will, that's going to result in long drives that eat up the clock. Exactly what we are looking for when trying to cash on the UNDER.

Virginia's offense isn't anything special and I look for them to have a difficult time of their own staying on the field. Pittsburgh is going to come out extremely motivated here after dropping two straight after their 3-0 start. Their lack of energy and focus was a big reason why they got upset at home last week by Akron. Head coach Paul Chryst isn't going to let that poor effort fly in back-to-back games.

Another thing you have to like about this finishing below the total is last year these two teams combined for just 17 points and a big reason for that was neither side could get anything going on the ground. Virginia held Connor and the Pitt offense to just 8 yards on 35 attempts. The Panthers returned the favor by holding Kevin Parks and the Cavaliers ground game to just 65 yards on 33 attempts.

UNDER is 11-2 in Virginia's last 13 home games against excellent ball control teams who average 32 or more minutes of possession, 40-16 in the Cavaliers last 56 games against teams who are allowing 310 or less total yards and 33-18 in Pitts last 51 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game.

There's also a key system backing this one. The UNDER is 51-21 over the last 10 years in October games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where you have a team off a home blowout win by 28 or more points (Virginia). That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER!

4* Syracuse/Louisville Total Annihilator on UNDER

Both of these teams have been cashing in on the UNDER this season. Louisville has finished below the total in all 4 of their games, while Syracuse has seen their games finish below the mark in 3 straight. I'm expecting a big time defensive battle in this one.

The Cardinals come in ranked 3rd in the country in total defense, giving up just 225.2 ypg. A big reason for that is their dominant run defense, which leads the nation allowing just 58.2 ypg. Syracuse's offense relies on their ability to run the football, which is going to make it very difficult for the Orange to generate a lot of drives that result in points and if they do they will likely have to settle for field goals.

Syracuse doesn't have as strong of numbers defensively as the Cardinals, but they are a respectable 51st, giving up just 374.5 ypg. A lot of that has to do with playing two high-powered offenses in Maryland and Notre Dame. Even with those two opponents, the Orange are only giving up 3.0 yards/carry against the run.

The other key here is that Louisville's offense is not all that potent. The come in ranked 77th in the country and have not been nearly as effective on the road as they have at home. On top of that, the Carrier Dome is a difficult place to play and the Orange's homefield edge should be at full strength in a weekday matchup on ESPN.

UNDER is 34-19 in Syracuse's last 53 games when playing against an opponent that's won more than 75% of their game. It's also 13-3 in Louisville's last 16 games overall and 6-0 in their last 6 road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in each of their last two games.

There's a solid system backing the UNDER in this one as well. The UNDER is 37-11 over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where the road team is outgaining opponents by 125 or more yards/game after a contest where they had a 225+ yard advantage. That's a 77% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Arizona/Oregon NCAAF Total Dominator on OVER

I look for the Oregon and Arizona to have no problem eclipsing this massive total of 76 points. This is a statement game for Oregon after their poor showing last time out against Washington State, plus they will be out for revenge against a Arizona team that whooped up on them 42-16 last year. I look for the Ducks to come out focused and looking to put up a big number and a nationally televised game.

Last year Arizona took advantage of an unmotivated Oregon team and was able to control the time of possession and protect their lead with the running game. That's not going to be the case this time. Oregon's offense is nearly unstoppable at home. Even Michigan State, who has one of the best defenses in the country gave up 46 points to the Ducks. With the Wildcats playing catchup, they are going to be forced to throw the ball, which will extend the game and give both teams more possessions.

The key here is that Oregon's secondary has not looked great early on. The Ducks come ranked 114th against the pass (315.3 ypg) and will be going up against Arizona's 8th ranked passing attack (365.8 ypg). The Wildcats are going to score and should put up enough points early to keep Oregon on the attack and most importantly keep those starters in for the 2nd half.

OVER is 18-6 in Oregon's last 24 home games when listed as a favorite of 21.5 or more points. There's also a key system backing this one to surpass the total. The OVER is 39-12 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that allowed 6.25 or more yards/play (Arizona) against an opponent that's gained 450 or more total yards in 4 straight games. That's a 77% system. Take the OVER!

3* Florida Atlantic/FIU NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

Forget the spread, the real value in this matchup is on the total. This game features two awful offenses and should fly UNDER the mark of 48.5. Florida Atlantic is 101st in passing (185.4 ypg) and 96th in rushing (128.2 ypg). FIU is even worse. The Golden Panthers are 100th in passing (185.8 ypg) and 116th in rushing (85.8 ypg).

Defensively the Owls do not have impressive numbers, as they come in ranked 102nd against the pass (283.6 ypg) and 98th against the run (219.0 ypg). However, that is largely due to playing Nebraska and Alabama on the road in non-conference play. Both the Cornhuskers put up 784 yards and the Crimson Tide finished with 620 yards. If you focus on just their three games against Tulsa, Wyoming and UTSA, the Owls are only giving up 135.6 ypg on the ground and just 234.0 ypg through the air.

It's also worth noting that you should not be fooled by FIU's 34 points last week against UAB. The Golden Panthers managed just 297 yards of total offense with a mere 9 first downs. They benefited from 6 turnovers, including two intereceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Also, 160 of their 297 yards came on two long pass plays (75 & 85 yards).

The key here is that for as bad as FIU is offensively, their defense has played well. If you take away the 321 yards rushing they gave up to Pitt, they are have held their other 4 opponents to just 94.5 ypg.

The UNDER is 31-15 in FIU's last 51 games against a team with a losing record, 8-1 in their last 9 against conference opponents and 12-3 in their last 15 home games after having lost 2 of their last 3. The UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Florida Atlantic's last 6 road games after going over the total last time out. These trends combine to form a 75% (57-19) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Temple/Connecticut UNDER

The is an extremely low total for good reason. We have two of the worst offenses in the country going at it in a conference matchup and both teams are strong on the defensive side of the ball. Points are going to be extremely hard to come by for both of these teams.

Connecticut comes in ranked 120th in the country in total offense, averaging just 253.3 ypg, but have been able to keep games respectable behind a stingy defense that ranks 37th, giving up just 344.1 ypg. There defense is arguably even better than the numbers would suggest. Outside of the 513 yards they gave up to a great BYU offense, the Huskies have held each of their last 3 opponents under 300 yards of total offense. 

Temple has been a little better offensively, as they come in ranked 93rd with an average of 366.0 ypg, but haven't faced a quality defense like what Connecticut brings to the table. Defensively the Owls are 15th in the country in total defense, allowing just 296.0 ypg. They too are even better than their numbers, as they gave up 487 yards rushing to Navy.

I would give the Owls the edge overall, but with this being a home game for Connecticut we should see an evenly matched contest. Even if Temple's offense is able to move the ball and put up some points, I don't see Connecticut doing enough here to exceed this total.

There's a huge system backing this game to go below the total, as the UNDER is 27-4 over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a team that's allowed 3.75 or less yards/play in their last game against an opponent who gained 225 or less total yards in their last contest. That's a 87% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total Dominator on FSU/NC State OVER

Last year these two teams combined for 66 points with Florida State doing most of the heavy lifting with 49 points. This year I'm expecting another high-scoring game, expect this time I look for NC State to contribute a lot more to push this way over the current mark of 58.5 points.

Defensively the Seminoles are going to be without several key players, including three key defensive linemen in defensive end Mario Edwards and defensive tackles Nile Lawrence and Justin Shanks. They will also be without outside linebacker Ukeme Eligwe. I know Florida State has a lot of talent, but were talking about a unit that lost 5 of their top 6 tacklers from 2013.

The numbers speak for themselves in how the Seminoles are not as strong defensively this year as they were in 2013. Florida State comes in ranked 50th in the country in total defense, giving up 364.4 ypg, including a staggering 170.7 ypg on the ground. Last year the Seminoles only surrendered 280.0 ypg and just 125.0 ypg on the ground.

NC State has looked especially strong on the offensive side of the ball. They come in ranked 26th in the country in total offense (502.1 ypg), with the strength of their attack being their run game (248.8 ypg). With Florida State likely coming out flat after that big game against Clemson, I'm looking for the Wolfpack to put up close to 30 points.

While the offense has been impressive, the defense isn't as good as the numbers would indicate, as the 159 yards they allowed to USF really throws things off. The Wolfpack gave up 438 yards to Georgia Southern and 504 to Old Dominion. With Winston back in the lineup, I look for Florida State should have no problem scoring close to 40 points. 

There's a key system backing the OVER based on NC State's strong start to 2014. The OVER is 43-16 over the last 10 seasons when you have a total set at 56.5 to 63 points with a home team coming in off 4 or more straight wins and undefeated on the season. That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Total Annihilator on Maryland/Indians OVER

I'm expecting a ton of offense in this one, as we get two explosive offenses going up against a couple of suspect defenses. Maryland comes in averaging 36.8 ppg and Indiana isn't far behind at 33.7 ppg. Those are impressive numbers when you take into account that the Terrapins have played 3 respectable defenses in non-conference play in USF, West Virginia and Syracuse, while Indiana has faced both Bowling Green and Missouri.

When you look at the defensive numbers of these two teams, you really start to see the value in the OVER. Indiana comes in 82nd in the country, giving up 414.7 ypg. The big key here being that they are 100th against the pass (288.7 ypg) and Maryland is more of a pass-first team with veteran quarterback C.J. Brown and a outstanding receiver in Stefon Diggs. Brown also possess the ability to beat you with his feet, making it that much harder on the Hoosiers defense.

Maryland has been even worse than Indiana defensively. The Terrapins come in ranked 105th in total defense, giving up 460.6 ypg. The Terps have struggled both against the run (199.3 ypg) and the pass (261.3 ypg). The Hoosiers have one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nate Sudfeld, who comes in completing 65.2% of his attempts with an average completion of 7.72 yards. Indiana also has a big time weapon at running back in Tevin Coleman, who has 569 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground and another 95 yards through the air in just 3 games.

It's also worth noting that this will be the first ever meeting between the two schools and that's typically an advantage for the offenses, as the defense doesn't really know what to expect. Both teams are also coming off big wins that saw them get revenge on opponents they lost to last year, which could have the intensity down a bit on the defensive side of the ball. Maryland beat Syracuse 34-20 (lost to Orange 3-20 in 2013) and Indiana stunned Missouri 31-27 on the road (lost 28-45 to Tigers in 2013).

There's also a huge system in play backing this game to finish OVER the total of 69.5. The OVER is 28-7 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 63 or more with a home team that has an excellent offense (6.1 or more yards/play) after allowing 450 or more total yards in their last two games. That's a 80% system. Take the OVER!

3* Oklahoma/West Virginia NCAAF Over/Under Main Event on OVER

The last time these two teams faced off in Morgantown they combined for 99 points and I'm expecting another shootout in 2014. West Virginia has looked as impressive as any team in the country on the offensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers come in ranked 13th in total offense at 564.3 ypg and are 4th in passing behind the emergence of senior quarterback Clint Trickett. That's saying something when you consider one of their games came against Alabama.

Oklahoma has been no slouch on the offensive side of the ball either, the Sooners bring a well balanced attack into this one, which ranks 34th in passing (293.3 ypg) and 42nd in rushing (196.7 ypg). They are also 15th in scoring at 44.7 ppg. West Virginia's defense simply doesn't have the talent to contain Oklahoma. Just this past week they gave up 37 points and 447 yards of total offense to Maryland, including a 163 yards rushing (6.0 ypc).

The Sooners defense enters a respectable 19th in the nation, only giving up 295.3 ypg, but this is without a doubt the best offense they have faced to date. The big key here is that the strength of Oklahoma's defense is their ability to stop the run. West Virginia is a pass-first team and I look for them to rack up a bunch of big plays down the field. If the Mountaineers can throw for 365 yards on Alabama, I got no reason to believe they can't top 400 against the Sooners.

Adding to that is that because West Virginia doesn't run the ball and look for big plays in the passing game, it's going to lead to some quick scores and more importantly stretch this game out and give each team more possessions to work with. Keep in mind that Oklahoma will be without leading rusher Keith Ford, which should have them throwing a little more than normal.

The OVER is 13-3 in West Virginia's last 16 home games against teams who average 250 or passing yards, 23-9 in their last 32 home games after going over the total last time out and 9-1 in their last 10 after throwing for 325+ yards in 2 consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 78% (45-13) system. Take the OVER!

5* NCAAF Over/Under NO LIMIT Total Top Play on Utah St/Arkansas St UNDER

The books have simply not adjusted this total enough. Utah State will be playing this game without star quarterback Chuckie Keeton and Arkansas State will be without their best rusher in Michael Gordon. Keeton was one of just 3 returning starters for the Aggies on the offensive side of the ball and he's without a doubt their best player.

It's also important to note that both of these teams have not been impressive offensively so far in 2014. Utah State ranks 100th in passing (197.0 ypg) and 76th in rushing (157.0 ypg), while Arkansas State is just 73rd in passing (230.0 ypg) and 61st in rushing (172.3 ypg).

Offensively both of these teams focus more on the running game and that sets up well for both defenses. Utah State is only giving up 62 ypg on a mere 2 yards/rush. Arkansas State on the other hand is only allowing 2.0 yards/carry at home and are in a great spot not having to worry about Keeton.

The UNDER is 12-3 in Utah State's last 15 road games after playing 2 straight non-conference games, 10-2 in the Aggies last 12 after two or more straight wins and 16-6 in Arkansas State's last 22 games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards. These trends combine for a 76% (38-11) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Florida/Alabama SEC Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle Saturday between Florida and Alabama. The Crimson Tide have not been as explosive offensively their 42.0 ppg would suggest. They scored just 33 in the opener against West Virginia, who is the only legit competition they have faced. Florida is a strong defensive team that has 7 returning starters and matches up well with Alabama's offense.

The Gators are strong up front, as they come in allowing just 2.4 yards/rush. I look for them to keep Alabama's high-powered rushing attack in check and really make the Crimson Tide work offensively to move the ball down the field. That should have Alabama eating up a lot of possession. The other key here is that the Crimson Tide have basically only involved star wide out Amari Cooper in the passing game. He leads the nation with 33 receptions and that's 24 more receptions than the next closest player. Florida has the perfect weapon to slow Cooper down and that's stud sophomore corner Vernon Hargreaves.

On the other side of the ball, there's not a lot of explanation needed to why Alabama should be able to keep the Gators offense in check. The Crimson Tide are loaded with talent on the stop unit once again and Florida's offense is nothing to write home about. The Gators only managed to score 20-points in regulation last week against SEC bottom feeder Kentucky at home. Not only will this be their first road test of the season, but it's one of the most difficult places in the entire country to play.

Each of the previous 3 meetings between these two schools at Bryant-Denny Stadium have finished UNDER the total and the two haven't combined for more than 51 points in a game since 1999.

UNDER is 9-1 in Alabama's last 10 games after scoring 50 or points last time out, 34-15 in their last 49 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and 22-7 in Florida's last 29 off a home game where they failed to cover in a straight up win. These trends combine to form a % 74% (65-23) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total Annihilator on Virginia/BYU UNDER

The total for Saturday's rematch between BYU and Virginia has been set too high. These two teams played at Virginia last season and combined for just 35 points and 585 yards of total offense and that was with the two teams scoring 16 points in the 4th quarter.

BYU has looked impressive on the offensive side of the ball, thanks in large part to play of junior quarterback Taysom Hill, who has thrown for 689 yards and 4 touchdowns and rushed for another 356 yards and 6 scores. It's no secret that the key to slowing down the Cougars is to keep Hill in check. Virginia did an excellent job of doing just that last year. Hill completed just 13 or 40 pass attempts for 175 yards and was held to 44 rushing yards on 11 carries.

With 9 starters back on the defensive side of the ball and two impressive performances already this season against the likes of UCLA and Louisville, I look for Virginia to have another strong showing defensively in this one.

While the defense looks to be in good shape, I don't see the Cavaliers' having much success offensively against a talented BYU defense that comes in allowing just 14.0 ppg on 313 yards/game. The Cougars have been especially strong against the run, giving up just 2.1 yards/carry. Virginia's offense comes in ranked 97th in passing (203.3 ypg) and 96th in rushing (130.3 ypg). Their best player is senior running back Kevin Parks and when he's not able to get going this team really has a difficult time moving the ball.

The UNDER is 20-8 in Virginia's last 28 games against a team that's allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards/attempt and 14-4 in their last 18 against excellent ball control teams who average 32 or more minutes of possession. The UNDER is also 10-1 in BYU's last 11 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards and 6-0 in their last 6 versus teams who are completing 62% or better of their pass attempts. These trends combine to form a 79% (50-13) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Army/Wake Forest UNDER

I'm expecting an offensive struggle in Saturday's matchup between Wake Forest and Army. These two teams played last year and combined for 36 points. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw even less scoring this time around. Wake Forest is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. In fact, they rank 123rd in the country in total offense, averaging just 237.7 ypg. Army put up 47 points against Buffalo in their opener, but they were shutout and managed just 207 total yards last week against Stanford.

They big key here is that while Wake Forest has been awful on offense, they have looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball in the first year under head coach Dave Clawson. The Demon Deacons rank 17th in the nation in total defense, giving up just 291.3 ypg. Most importantly against a team like Army who basically only runs the ball, is that Wake Forest is giving up just 2.7 yards per rush attempt.

I'm expecting both teams to come in focused on establishing the running game, which should limit possessions for both teams and eat up a lot of clock without much scoring. Exactly what you are looking for to go UNDER the total.

UNDER is 20-7 in the last 27 games Clawson has coached on his team's home field and 32-16 in Wake Forest's last 48 non-conference games. It's also 23-8 in the Demon Deacon's last 31 games overall and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. These trends combine to form a 72% (81-32) system. Take the UNDER!

3* UConn/South Florida NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

I was a bit surprised that the books opened this total as high as they did, but you won't find me complaining about the value. Not only do we have two awful offenses going head-to-head, but these two schools have a history of playing extremely low-scoring games when they face off on the gridiron. In fact, each of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen a combined score of 35-points or less, including last year's matchup that saw a whopping 23-points in USF's 13-10 win. '

While South Florida's defense was torched for 49 points and 589 yards of total offense last week by NC State, UConn simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to come anywhere close to that kind of offensive production. The Huskies come into this game ranked 115th out of 125 FBS teams in total offense, averaging just 289.3 ypg. I mean Connecticut only managed to score 19 points and muster 223 yards of offense at home against Stony Brook.

The Bulls have been equally bad on offense, as they come in ranked 113th in total offense at just 300.3 ypg. The big key here is that South Florida has no passing attack. The Bulls are 116th in the nation, averaging just 151.3 ypg through the air. Connecticut has been respectable against the run given the teams they have played. They are only allowing 3.6 yards/carry and most of the yards they have allowed came against BYU’s (205) high-powered attack. The Huskies limited Boise State’s talented back Jay Ajayi to just 39 yards on 18 attempts (2.2 ypc). With no threat of the pass, I look for Connecticut to have no problem shutting down the Bulls’ offense.

There's a strong system in play, as the UNDER has gone 52-20 since 1992 in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when the road team comes off a contest where they allowed 75 or less rushing yards against an opponent who gained 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. That's a 72% system pointing clearly in our direction. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on BC/USC OVER

I look for USC and Boston College to fly over the total of 50.5 on Saturday. USC scored 52 points and put up over 700 yards of total offense in their opener against Fresno State, as they ran a conference-record 105 plays. The Trojans are clearly trying to play at a faster pace this year and I don't see the Eagles being able to slow them down.

Boston College allowed Pittsburgh to score 30 points on 414 yards of total offense at home last week and it could have been a lot worse had the Panthers not had to settle for 3 field goals. USC is on a whole different level than Pittsburgh in terms of talent and athleticism on the offensive side of the ball and I wouldn't be shocked if they covered the total on their own.

However, I do expect to see Boston College score some points, whether it come early or late in the game when this one has turned into a blowout. USC has a strong defense, but I just don't see them playing with a ton of intensity on that side of the ball after laying it all on the line last week against Stanford.

I see no way the Trojans don't manage at least 500 yards of total offense, which is an important number. The OVER is 14-4 in Boston College's last 18 games when they allow 500+ yards of total offense and 7-0 in the Trojans last 7 games when they gain 500+ yards of total offense. Take the OVER!

*Even with the total jumping up to 55, I still recommend a play on the OVER*

3* Non-Conference Total Dominator on TCU/Minnesota UNDER

I feel like the books have set this total too high based on what these two offenses have done against poor competition. Minnesota put up 42 points on Eastern Illinois and 35 against Middle Tennessee, while TCU hung 48 on Samford.

I don't see either offense having anywhere close to that kind of success in this one. Both of these teams return a lot of talent to a couple of strong defensive units from last year. The Golden Gophers have 7 starters back on a defense that allowed just 22.2 ppg in 2013, while the Horned Frogs return 7 from a unit that only gave up 25.3 ppg. TCU has always fielded a strong defense under head coach Gary Patterson and Minnesota has improved with each year under head coach Jerry Kill.

Another big key here is that both of these team focus more on the run. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin threw for 320 yards and 2 scores against Samford, but he's not your typical pocket passer. He only had 1,198 yards and 7 TDs over 9 starts last year, which has me thinking his big numbers in Week 1 are result of the competition. Minnesota on the other hand is almost exclusively only looking to run. The Golden Gophers had 40 rushing attempts to 18 passes against Eastern Illinois and 50 rushing attempts to just 11 passes versus Middle Tennessee.

Both teams should eat up a lot of clock when they have the ball and with the strong defenses I don't see enough big plays for this game to eclipse 48 points.

UNDER is 10-4 in Minnesota's last 14 games played on grass, 16-5-1 in their Horned Frogs last 22 after accumulating more than 280 passing yards and 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing less than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 74% (34-12) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Virgina/Louisville ACC Total Annihilator on UNDER

I don't see Louisville and Virginia exceeding 49 combined points on Saturday. The Cardinals' defense completely shutdown Miami in their ACC debut in Week 1, limiting the Canes to just 244 yards of total offense. Virginia has also had an impressive defensive showing against a potent offense, as they held UCLA to just 358 yards and held the Bruins offense to just 7 points.

What really impressed me with Louisville against Miami was their defensive front, which held star running back Duke Johnson to just 90 yards on 20 attempts and overall held the Hurricanes to just 70 yards on 27 attempts (2.6 yards/carry). Virginia likes to run their offense through running back Kevin Parks and I just don't see them being able to establish the run here, which should have their offense completely out of rhythm.

Virginia is giving up just 2.5 yards/carry on the ground and have been respectable against the pass. The Cavaliers are better defensively than they get credit for because of last year's 2-10 record. They have 9 starters back on that side of the ball and I look for them to give Louisville's inexperienced sophomore quarterback Will Gardner a lot of problems. 

With both offenses figuring to have a difficult time moving the ball, I don't expect to see many touchdowns in this one, which is crucial for going under a total of just 49 points.

There's a strong system in play. The UNDER has hit 75% (39-13) of the time over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 59 points where the home team allowed 3 or less points in the 1st half of their last game in a matchup between two teams that are both outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take the UNDER!

4* Houston/BYU Over/Under Total Dominator on OVER

The books have simply not set the bar high enough in this one. I look for BYU and Houston to fly OVER the total of 57. Last year these two teams combined for 93-points in a 47-46 BYU vicotry. It might not be that high-scoring, but I don't see this one finishing with less than 60 points with the talent these two teams have on offense.

BYU has been one of the more impressive teams in the early going of 2014. The Cougars put up 35 on the road against Connecticut in their opener and 41 at Texas this past weekend. Offenses typically are even better at home and I expect that to be the case for BYU on Thursday. Last year the Cougars put up 681 yards of total offense against Houston and I just haven't seen enough from Houston to believe they are going to slow down Taysom Hill and BYU's high-powered attack.

One of the reasons I think this total is so low, is because of the fact that BYU has only allowed 17 points combined in their first two games. While that's an impressive accomplishment, it came against a couple of bad offensive teams. Connecticut is picked to finish last in the American Athletic and average just 20.6 ppg in 2013. Texas was without starting quarterback and playing behind an offensive line that didn't feature a single returning starter.

I look for Houston to be able to move the ball at a similar rate to what we saw last year in this matchup. BYU lost their leading tackler in linebacker Uani Unga and their 2-time All-American linebacker in Kyle Van Noy. Last year Houston's passing attack racked up 435 yards and it's teams who can pick up big yards through the air that tend to give BYU the most trouble.

The OVER is 23-9 in Houston's last 32 games off a home win by 17 or more points, 27-10-1 in their last 38 games after allowing 20 points or less and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games played on a Thursday. These trends combine to form a 75% (56-19) system. Take the OVER!

3* North Texas/LA Tech Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting both teams to struggle to get their offense going in this one. These two teams combined for just 41 points in last year's meeting and I'm expecting even less than that this time around.

North Texas is coming in off a dominant defensive performance at home against SMU. The only points the Mean Green allowed the entire games against the Mustangs came on a last second 33-yard touchdown pass as time expired in regulation. Of the 276 yards of total offense North Texas gave up to SMU, 147 of those yards came on their final two drives with the game already in the books.

Louisiana Tech returned 7 starters to a defense that only allowed 26.3 ppg in 2013. While they allowed 48 in their opener against a much more talented Oklahoma squad, they held a potent Louisiana-Lafayette offense to just 20 points last week. North Texas isn't as strong of an offensive team as the 43-points they scored last week would indicate. The Mean Green rely almost exclusive on their running game, as they don't have much to work with at the quarterback position. The Bulldogs know this and are going to load the box and force North Texas to try an beat them with the pass.

I look for the Mean Green to come in focused on strong defense and controlling the time of possession with their ground attack. I just don't see enough possessions here for these two teams to surpass this total.

The UNDER is 11-2 in their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points, 8-0 in North Texas' last 8 home games against a conference opponent and 8-0 in their last 8 games after scoring 42 points. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 93% (27-2) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Dominator on New Mexico/Arizona St OVER

I look for Arizona State and New Mexico to have no issues eclipsing the total of 67 for this matchup. Don't be fooled by the Sun Devils only allowing 14-points in their opener against a bad FCS opponent in Weber State. Arizona State has just two starters back on the defensive side of the ball and are going to give up a lot more than 14-points when they play better teams.

While New Mexico isn't a top notch opponent, I like their chances of moving the football against the Sun Devils. The Lobos put up 410 rushing yards against UTEP in the opener and their option-based attack is difficult to prepare for, especially for a team like Arizona State that doesn't see a whole lot of it.

As for the Arizona State offense, they should have no problem putting up a big number against a Lobos' defense that surrendered 446 yards to UTEP. That was actually a better than normal performance for the defense, as New Mexico allowed 42.8 ppg and 517 ypg in 2013. They allowed more than 65-points twice last year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Sun Devils flirted with that mark in this one.

Solid system in play on the OVER in this one. The OVER is 30-7 (81%) since 1992 in games with a total of 63 or more points, where one team allowed 24 or more points in the first half of their last game (New Mexico) against an opponent who was leading at the half by 24 or more points in their last contest. Take the OVER!

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Month on USF/Maryland UNDER

This may seem like a low total based on what these two teams did in their opener, but I look for this one to finish well below the mark. Maryland scored 52 points in their opener at home against James Madison, which isn't saying much. South Florida's defense isn't great but it's more than capable of slowing down the Terrapins. It's also worth noting that Maryland isn't as strong of a team on the road as they are at home.

The big key here is that I don't expect the Bulls to do much of anything offensively. South Florida scored 36 last week against a bad Western Carolina squad and did so almost exclusively running the football. They had 294 yards rushing and just 181 yards passing. The Bulls are going to find it much more difficult to run against the Terrapins. Maryland has 9 starters back on a defense that only gave up 149 yards (3.7 ypc) last year. Due to USF not having a passing game they can rely on, the Bulls will keep running and eating up clock, which is exactly what we are looking for.

The UNDER is 22-9 in Maryland's last 31 games after scoring 37 or more points and 21-9 in their last 30 after a win by 17+ points. The UNDER is also 13-3 in South Florida's last 16 games when listed as an underdog and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after a game that finished over the total. These trends combine to form a 75% (63-21) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Miss St/UAB OVER

I'm expecting this game to fly over the total. Both of these teams put on a show offensively in their opener. Mississippi State scored 49 points on 550 yards of total offense versus Southern Miss, while UAB put up 48 points on 490 yards of total offense in their win over Troy.

It should come as no surprise that I'm expecting the majority of the points scored here to come from the Bulldogs. UAB may have held Troy to just 10 points, but they are completely outmatched against a big time opponent from the SEC. Last year the Blazers gave up 56 points to LSU and 52 to Vanderbilt. I fully expect to see Mississippi State to score at least 45 and wouldn't be surprised if they topped 50.

With that said, I do think the Blazers will be able to add in some garbage points late and potentially even a touchdown or two early. UAB added in former Washington State recruit Cody Clement at quarterback and have a big time playmaker at running back in Jordan Howard.

Further supporting my play here is the fact that the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in UAB last 6 games when listed as a road underdog and in these games they have seen an average combined score of 74 points. Take the OVER!

4* Pitt/Boston College NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

I believe the books have set the mark too high in Friday's ACC showdown between Pittsburgh and Boston College. The Panthers exploded for 62 points in their opener against Delware, but don't let that fool you into thinking Pitts going to have an explosive offense. Pittsburgh only average 26.3 ppg last year and played in the weak AAC.

Boston College on the other hand only managed to score 30 points against a bad UMass defense that allowed 33.0 ppg in 2013. The Eagles only returned 3 starters on offense and lost their most important piece in running back Andre Williams, who had 2,177 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Another key point to make is that both of these teams focus their offense around the running game, which should limit the amount of possessions for both squads. I look for touchdowns to be hard to come by and I'm not expecting much of anything offensively from BC.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Pittsburgh's last 9 games played on a Friday, 9-4 in their last 13 after a game where they scored more than 20 points and 7-2 in their last 9 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing. The UNDER is also 5-0 in Boston College's last 5 games on Friday, 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 275 or less total yards and 20-7 in their last 27 following a SU win.