Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego -

I love the value here with the Toreros in Thursday's road game against Pepperdine. San Diego is going to be chomping at the bit to get back in action after losing their last two games, both of which were contested battles against two of the top teams in the conference in Gonzaga and St. Mary's. 

I just don't see the Waves being able to keep this one competitive enough to cover this spread. Pepperdine is just 4-20 overall and a mere 1-11 in conference play. They are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning record. 

The Toreros on the other hand are a great road team, especially when it comes to covering the number. They are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games overall and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take San Diego! 

5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE YEAR on Poly +

I look for the Mustangs to have zero problem covering this spread on the road against the Titans Thursday. CS-Fullerton simply has no business being this big a favorite in this matchup. These two teams played earlier this season at Cal-Poly and the Titans needed overtime to escape with a 101-97 win, despite shooting a ridiculous 58% from the field in that contest. 

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Mustangs won this game outright. Cal Poly has won each of their last two games, including a 78-64 win over Hawaii as a 4-point home dog in their last game. CS-Fullerton has lost each of their last 2 games at home are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. 

Adding to all of this is a great system backing a play on the Mustangs. Underdogs off an upset win by 10 or more points as a home dog, who have 2 more returning starters than their opponent are 54-23 (70%) ATS going all the way back to 1997. Take Cal Poly! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hofstra +

I love the value here with the Pride as a dog against the Phoenix on Thursday. Hofstra will be out for revenge from a home loss to Elon earlier this season and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. As for the Phoenix, they are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. 

On top of that we see that Hofstra is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when listed as a road dog and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total in the range of 150 to 159.5. 

Adding to all of this is a huge system in favor of the Pride. Road underdogs who are evening a loss where they allowed 75+ points in a game that involves two marginal winning teams are 49-21 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Hofstra! 

5* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola +

I love the value here with the Lions at basically a pick'em on the road against the Pilots this Saturday. Loyola-Marymount is just 1-5 in their last 6 games, but are fresh off an impressive 76-69 win at home over BYU as a 10-point dog. They have been a lot more competitive than their recent run would suggest, as 4 of those losses were by 7 points or less. 

Not only are we catching the Lions playing with some renewed confidence off that upset win, but they will also come out highly motivated to get revenge from a recent loss to these Pilots. Another big key here is that Portland has a history of not playing well on their home floor. The Pilots are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and a mere 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Loyola-Marymount! 

5* NCAAB Ivy League GAME OF THE  MONTH on Dartmouth +

I love the value here with the Big Green catching points here on the road against the Big Red. The books are just begging for you to take Cornell here with this small number, which only makes me like Dartmouth that much more. The Big Green have lost their last 7 games, but only two of those were at home and they have been a lot more competitive than the skid would lead you to believe. 

The Big Red are getting some love for an upset win at home over Columbia, but let's not forget this is a team that had gone just 1-6 in their last 7 games. Cornell has also not done well in this spot, as they are just 15-32 ATS in their last 47 when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less. They are also just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 after a came where they covered the spread. Take Dartmouth!  

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Elon +

I love the value here with the Phoenix catching points on the road against the Tribe. Elon comes in off a 83-76 win at Towson St as a 9-point and I look for them to carry over that momentum in tonight's showdown against William & Mary. The Phoenix will definitely be up for this game, as they have revenge from an upset loss at home to the Tribe a couple weeks back. 

Adding even more value is a great system in play on the Phoenix. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more are 27-7 (74%) ATS when facing an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less. Take Elon! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on James Madison +

I love the value here with the Dukes catching points on the road against the Dragons. While Drexel comes in off an impressive 68-67 upset win at home over Northeastern as a 6-point dog, I think it works against them here, as it puts in a major letdown spot against at team they lost to already once this season. 

James Madison is also a team that has thrived in the role of the road dog, going 7-1 ATS this season in this spot. Dragons are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing a game as a home dog, while the Dukes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team that is giving up 77+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Take James Madison! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH  on Riverside +

I love the value here with the Highlanders catching points here on the road against the Mustangs. These are two equally bad teams and I just don't see a big enough home court edge for Cal Poly to be laying this many points. UC Riverside has started out 0-7 in Big West play and I see them being extremely motivated to get that first conference win against a team they can compete against. 

It wouldn't be anything new if the Highlanders pulled off the upset. They have done exactly that each of the last two years. They won 72-68 in 2016 as a 8-point dog and last year won 67-56 as a 5-point dog. Cal Poly is also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take UC Riverside! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Marist +

I love the value we are getting here with the Red Foxes as a near double-digit dog at Manhattan on Tuesday. Marist is just 4-17 overall and 1-11 SU in road games this season, but are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and have covered 3 of their last 4 on the road and barely missed out on a cover in the one that didn't go their way. 

Manhattan simply isn't a good enough team to be laying this many points. The Jaspers have lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-3 ATS during this stretch. Marist has failed to cover 2 of their last 3, but that's a positive, as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games in this spot. 

Adding to all of this is a great system back a play on the Red Foxes. Underdogs who have won fewer than 20% of their games are 43-17 (72%) ATS when revenging a home loss to an opponent that has a losing record. Take Marist! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on San Diego -

I love the value here with the Toreros as a short road favorite against the Lions on Saturday. San Diego comes in off a 66-58 win at home over Santa Clara and I look for them to carry over that momentum here against Loyola Marymount.

This is a game San Diego needs to win with games against Gonzaga and St Mary's looming on deck. That shouldn't be a problem, as the Lions are a mere 1-8 in conference play and are just 4-5 at home this season. Toreros are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games, while Marymount is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take San Diego! 

5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH  on St. Peter's +

I love the value and the spot here with the Peacocks catching a big number here on the road against the Broncs.   St. Peter's comes in having lost 4 straight, but have been a lot more competitive than you would think for a team on a 4-game skid. All 4 losses came by 12-points or less, including a mere 4-point loss at home to Rider. Revenge is a big time motivator in college sports and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Peacocks returned the favor and won this game outright. 

The road team has dominated this series, going 27-10-2 ATS in the last 39 meetings, with St. Peter's going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Rider. The Peacocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games off a loss. The Broncs are also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a close road win by 3 points or less. Take St. Peter's!

5* NCAAB CAA (Colonial) GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern +

I love the value here with the Huskies at basically a pick'em here against the Pride. Northeastern is tied with William & Mary on top the CAA and red-hot right now having won 3 straight, which includes a 20-point road win over William & Mary. I look for the Huskies to have no problem here coming away with a win against Hofstra. 

The Pride upset Northeastern on the road earlier this season, which only adds more fuel to the fire here for the Huskies. Hofstra failed to cover in their last game and that's worth noting, as they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover the spread. The Pride are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and 3-15 ATS over the last 3 seasonswhen playing for just the second time in a week stretch. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play on the Huskies. Road teams who are listed at +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss and have won each of their last 2 games by 10 or more points are 30-9 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northeastern! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Quinnipiac +

I like the value with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em here against the Red Foxes. While Quinnipiac is just 2-9 on the road, Marist is just 3-5 at home and have just 1 win in their last 6 games. They are also just 2-8 in their last 10 overall. 

Bobcats come into this one off a 76-69 win at home over Siena as a 2-point favorite and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a contest in which they covered the spread. The Bobcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record, while the Red Foxes are a mere 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Quinnipiac! 

5* NCAAB 'ACC' GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -

I love the value we are getting here with the Hurricanes as a short home favorite against the Cardinals. Louisville is getting way too much respect coming off a 4-game winning streak, while Miami isn't getting near enough respect due to the fact that they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. They did however win their last game, going on the road and handing NC State a rare loss on their home floor. 

One of the key factors here is the home court advantage for the Hurricanes, who are 6-1 at home with the only loss coming against Duke in a game they should have won (led by double-digits). Louisville is 15-4 overall, but just 3-3 away from home and I believe this is their biggest road test since losing 61-90 at Kentucky. They also lost 69-74 at Clemson in ACC play. 

Cardinals are also just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games after a win, while the Hurricanes are a dominant 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a contest where they made 55% or more of their field goal attempts. Take Miami! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU +

I love the value here with LSU as a home dog against the Aggies on Tuesday.  Texas A&M comes in having won their last two, but those were home games against Missouri and Ole Miss. Nothing to get excited about. Prior to that they had lost 5 straight and are winless on the road in SEC play with two of the three losses coming by double digits. 

LSU has dropped 3 straight and that's playing into the value here. The Aggies did managed to cover in their most recent win over Missouri, but that's not a good thing for them in terms of covering tonight. Texas A&M is a mere 3-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons after a game where they covered the spread. They are also just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 SEC games and and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take LSU! 

5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pepperdine +

I love the value here with the Waves as a double-digit dog against the Dons on Saturday. We are simply seeing a big overreaction here by the books due to Pepperdine coming in with a 3-16 record and 0-7 mark in league play. San Francisco hasn't exactly been playing well, as they have lost 3 straight, including a 62-65 loss at home to Santa Clara as a 10-point favorite in their last game.

The Dons are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record. 

Adding to this is a great system in favor of the Waves. Road teams off 2 straight conference losses by 10 or more and revenging a same season loss are 89-49 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Pepperdine! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Yale -

I love the value here with the Bulldogs as a short road favorite against the Bears. These two teams come in with similar overall records and each has played only one league game so far. I think it's got Yale way undervalued here. The Bulldogs were expected to give Harvard a run for their money for the Ivy League title, while Brown was picked by many to finish in the bottom 3 of the league. 

It also just so happens that these two teams only league game was against each other with Yale winning 78-72 at home. While the Bulldogs only won by 6, it should have been more, as they shot 50% from the field and the Bears shot only 43.4%. 

I'm not concerned with the change in venue. Yale has been a great road team when in a similar spot to what we see here. The Bulldogs are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less dating back to 1997 and are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take Yale! 

5* NCAAB Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State +

I love the value here with the Beavers as a home dog against the Bruins. UCLA will be the popular side, but I don't trust the Bruins on the road in this spot. Last time out UCLA lost at home to Colorado 59-68 as a 11-point favorite. The Bruins have only played 3 true road games and the lone win was against a bad Cal team. 

Oregon State might not look like much on paper, especially given they come in having lost 3 of their last 4, but the Beavers are a vastly improved team. Two of those losses came on the road against Arizona and Arizona State (covered both). The other was a 2-point home loss to Utah. Earlier they beat Colorado at home by 19 and I think their ability to frustrate teams defensively will allow them to pull of the upset here. 

UCLA is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning record. Take Oregon State! 

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Rider +

I love the value here with the Broncs catching points against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-7 with a 4-2 mark in conference play, while St. Peter's is just 8-9 overall and 2-4 in league play. 

Last time out the Broncs were embarrassed in a 64-91 defeat at Iona, but that puts them in a great spot to rebound and cover against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 80 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS after giving up 90+. 

The Broncs are also 4-1-1 ATS in their lat 6 road games against a team with strong home record of 60% or better. On top of that, the road team in the series is 26-10-2 over the last 38 meetings, with the Broncs going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to St. Peters's. Take Rider! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne -

I love the value here with the Mastodons as a short road favorite against the Leathernecks. Western Illinois has started out 0-3 in the Summit and that's really not a surprise, as the Leathernecks were the consensus pick to finish in the basement of the league. All 3 losses have come by 12 or more points, including a 21-point loss at home to Nebraska-Omaha as a 3-point favorite. Ft Wayne is 2-2 and last time they beat Nebraska-Omaha at home, which is a good sign that they can make easy work of Western Illinois and cover this spread on the road. 

One thing the Mastodons do well is connect from outside. They come in averaging 10 made 3-pointers per game and that's worth noting as the Leathernecks are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Western Illinois is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games when playing a team with a winning record. Take IUPU Ft Wayne! 

5* NCAAB 'SEC' GAME OF THE MONTH  on LSU -

I like the value here with the Tigers laying a short number at home against Georgia. LSU has been one of the big surprises early on this season out of the SEC, as not much was expected after last year's 10-21 campaign. Will Wade has done a tremendous job in year one turning the Tigers into a contender and as a result LSU has been a team constantly undervalued by the books. I think that's exactly the case here at home against the Bulldogs. 

Georgia is a good team, but aren't exactly playing well at the moment. They just lost by 7 at home to South Carolina as a 5-point favorite and the game before that they fell by 12 at Missouri. The road struggles have been a theme all season and a big reason why I got no problem laying this short number on LSU here. The Tigers are 7-3 at home and the Bulldogs are a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. 

Georgia's offense has been struggling and have really relied on the defense to keep them a float. In that loss to the Gamecocks, they scored just 57 points and allowed only 64. That's worth bringing up, as the Bulldogs are a miserable 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after a game where both teams scored fewer than 65 points. Take LSU! 

5* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Towson +

I like the value here with the Tigers catching points on the road against the Tribe. I also think the books are tipping their hand in this one. William & Mary, who are only laying 3-points despite the fact that they come in having won 5 straight and are a perfect 7-0 at home. 

The Tigers have a history of stepping up their game against top level teams on the road. Towson is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when matched up against top level teams who are outscoring opponents on averaging by 8 or more points/game. The road team is also a solid 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take Towson! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Peter's

I love the value here with the Peacocks catching points on the road against the Golden Griffins. St. Peter's has owned this series of late, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings, including their last trip to Canisius, as well as their meeting in the MAAC Tournament. Going back even further the Peacocks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Golden Griffins. 

St. Peter's is also a team that has consistently played well on the road against quality opponents, as they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. They are also working on a 35-16 ATS run in their last 51 conference games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when coming off a game where they covered the spread. 

Not only did the Peacocks cover in their last game, they absolutely destroyed Quinnipiac at home 84-58. That has them in a very profitable situation over the last 5 seasons. Road underdogs off a win by 20 or more at least 15 games into the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS if the game is between two average teams with a +/- 3.5 ppg differential. Take St. Peter's! 

5* NCAAB *WCC* GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego +

I like the value here with the Toreros at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. San Diego comes in at 12-4, but are fresh off a 63-70 loss at St Mary's, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I look for the Toreros to bounce back in a big way here against a Pacific team that isn't very good. The Tigers are just 7-10 overall and are a mere 2-6 in their last 8. 

More than anything, Pacific should not be favored here against San Diego. You won't find me complaining. The Toreros are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games with an impressive 13-2 ATS mark in their last 15 as a road underdog. Pacific won last time out, which is also a plus, as the Tigers are a mere 2-12 in their last 14 off a win and 1-9 ATS when that win was at home. Take San Diego! 

5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Manhattan +

I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Stags. Manhattan has already beat Fairfield once this season. The Jaspers held the Stags to just 35% from the field, while they connected on 59% of their shots. There's simply no reason that Manhattan should be this big of a dog here. In fact, my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. 

Fairfield is only 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games following 3 or more consecutive road games and a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a loss. Jaspers on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning home record. 

We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Stags. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are a mere 16-43 (27%) ATS since 1997. Take Manhattan! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Fairfield +

I like the value here with the Stags catching a big number on the road against the Gaels. I just don't see a whole lot that separates these two teams. Iona is simply getting too much respect here playing at home and the fact that the Stags are coming off an ugly 77-96 loss at Rider. 

The Gaels are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home conference games. Iona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 following a SU win and are just 1-5 ATS in their lat 6 games played on Sunday. Stags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 90 or more points in their last game and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points.  Take Fairfield! 

5* NCAAB 'Ivy League' GAME OF THE MONTH on Dartmouth +

I love the value here with the Big Green catching double-digits here against the Crimson. Dartmouth has gone a miserable 1-6 in road games so far this season, but that's playing into this line. Their losses on the road have actually come by fewer than 10 ppg. Harvard is also just 5-9 on the season and while they are 3-1 at home, their wins at home have come by just around 4 ppg. 

The Big Green have historically been a good team to back when they come in having not exactly played well. Dartmouth is 12-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having won just 1 or 2 of their last 7 games. They are also a dominant 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after a SU loss. 

It's also worth pointing out that the Big Green have covered 5 of their last 7 trips to Harvard and the road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 overall. Take Dartmouth! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Fairfield +

I like the value here with the Stags catching points on the road against the Broncs. Fairfield is coming off a crushing 58-61 loss at Manhattan. The Stags couldn't have played much worse and still almost won the game. Fairfield shot just 35% from the field, while Manhattan shot 49%. I expect a much better showing here offensively from the Stags against a Broncs defense that has allowed 76+ in each of their first two conference games. 

Fairfield has covered 14 of the last 17 meetings in the series, including 3 of the last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings, including a 2-0 SU mark in their last 2 at Rider. The Broncs are also just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 home games after a road game where both teams scored 75+ and  just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games after 3 or more straight games on the road. Take Fairfield! 

5* NCAAB *Big West* GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside +

I love the value here with the Highlanders as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Titans. In the last 8 meetings in the series UC-Riverside has won 5 times and all 3 losses have come by fewer than the spread listed here.

In fact, the Highlanders are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings at UC Fullerton, as the road team is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings overall. In last year's meeting at the Titans Riverside was a 7.5-point dog and won outright 71-63. I see no reason why not to expect a close game here and wouldn't be shocked at all if the Highlanders won this game outright. Take UC Riverside! 

5* NCAAB *CAA* GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel +

I like the value here with the Dragons catching a decent number here on the road against the Phoenix. Drexel comes in at just 6-7, but I've liked what I've seen from this team in non-conference play. They beat Houston 84-80 on a neutral court as a 14-point dog and won at LaSalle as a 12-point dog. They also lost by just 3-points in a true road game against Temple as a 16-point dog. 

Elon has started out 8-5, but most have their success has come against a soft schedule. The Phoenix did pull off an upset in their last game against Indiana State, but are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. This is also Elon's first home game after playing 4 straight on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games after playing 3 or more consecutive road games. 

It's also worth noting that the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Dragons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Elon. Take Drexel! 

5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Rider +

I love the value here with the Broncs as a short road dog against the Golden Griffins. Rider has been a pleasant surprise early on and come in off an impressive 71-70 win at Penn State as a 15-point dog. This is also a team that won at George Washington as a 5.5-point dog and only lost by 4 on the road against Providence as a 14-point dog. 

Canisius' strength of schedule doesn't even come close to comparing to the Broncs. The biggest dog the Golden Griffins have been all season is a 9.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just don't see Canisius being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Rider is averaging 82 ppg and scoring roughly 10 ppg more than what their opponents allow. The Griffins average just 70.8 ppg and are scoring less than what their opponents allow. 

I think Canisius is getting some respect here with this line because they come in off a 14-point win at Robert Morris, but the Griffins are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. Take Rider! 

5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga -

I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a short road favorite against the Aztecs on Thursday. San Diego State has been a great program for a long-time, but took a big step back last year in the first season without Steve Fisher at the helm. While they are off to a respectable 7-3 start a big reason for that has been the schedule.

They do have a win over Georgia on a neutral court, but they also lost by 22 at Arizona State, by 7 on a neutral court to Washington State and most recently a 62-63 loss at home to Cal as a 16.5-point favorite. 

Gonzaga is loaded once again and have started out 10-2 with their only losses coming against big time powers in Florida and Villanova. While the home court edge might help the Aztecs make this competitive early, I look for the Bulldogs to pull away and win this one comfortably. Take Gonzaga! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +

I absolutely love the value here with UNI as a dog in Saturday's neutral site showdown against in-state rival ISU. My power rankings show that the Panthers should be the ones favored in this contest. The big reason they aren't is the fact that the Cyclones come in having won 7 straight, but the best wins for ISU are a neutral site game against Boise State and a home win over Iowa. The Cyclones are also way down this year, as they lost a ton from last year's team and are likely headed for a finish near the basement of the loaded Big 12. 

UNI is an experienced team that has proven itself against some of the big boys early. The Panthers are 8-2 with the two losses coming away from home against the likes of UNC and Villanova. They also have some impressive wins, knocking off the likes of SMU, NC State and UNLV. 

Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 12 against the Big, while ISU is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Missouri Vally. Panthers are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a neutral site and 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 off a win. Take Northern Iowa! 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Charleston Southern -

I really like the value here with the Bucs as a short road favorite against the Bulldogs. Charleston Southern comes in having won 4 of their last 5, including a road win at Illinois State. South Carolina State is projected to finish near the bottom of the MEAC and are off to a poor 2-9 start with their only wins coming against the likes of Morris College and Brevard College. Last time out they lost to Furman by 29 points. This is simply a much bigger mismatch than the books are suggesting with this line. Take Charleston Southern! 

5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Western Illinois +

I like the value here with the Leathernecks as a home dog against the Panthers. Western Illinois has been in this spot before, as they were just a 2-point home dog to IUPUI and they went onto to win that game outright 90-77. They also beat Eastern Illinois as a 4.5-point home dog. 

Milwaukee has started out 6-3, but this isn't a good team and are expected to finish near the basement of the Horizon League. Simply not the kind of team that should be laying points on the road against a quality team. 

The Leathernecks pack quite a punch offensively, as they come in averaging 76.6 ppg (83.2 at home), while shooting 51% from the field (54% at home). The Panthers haven't had a lot of success against teams like this, as they are a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 against a team that's shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Western Illinois! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific  +

I love the value here with the Tigers as a decently priced dog against the Aggies. Pacific went just 11-22 last year in the first season under head coach Damon Stoudamire. This should be a much improved team in 2017 and they are off to a strong 5-4 start and come in having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. 

The Tigers did lose to UC Davis at home in their second game of the season 58-62, which I think is playing into this line here. Pacific was a 4-point favorite in that game and based off that line you would only expect them to be around a 2-3 point dog on the road against the Aggies. I'll take my chances here with the Tigers getting their revenge, plus this is a great spot to fade UC Davis off their big upset win on the road over Washington State, where they won 81-67 as a 7.5-point dog.

Tigers are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 when revenging a loss as a home favorite, while the Aggies are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home non-conference games. Take Pacific! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH  on Arizona +

Love the value here with Arizona catching points in Tuesday's game against Texas A&M. While this game is technically being played on a neutral site at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, it's going to feel like a home game for the Wildcats.

I believe this line is a direct result of the Wildcats struggles in the Battle 4 Atlantis, where they lost 3 straight to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They have since responded with a 30+ point win over Long Beach State and a outright win on the road against a very good UNLV team.

This is a statement game for Arizona and I think they get it done against the Aggies, who are getting a little too much respect here after their 7-0 start. The Wildcats have owned the SEC, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs teams from the SEC. On the flip side of this Texas A&M is a mere 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 vs the Pac-12. Take Arizona! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Missouri -

I like the value here with Missouri laying a short number on the road against the Knights. The Tigers suffered a huge blow when freshman and potential No. 1 overall pick Michael Porter Jr. was lost for the season, but I think it has them undervalued right now. While Porter Jr. was a special talent, there's still enough pieces in place for Missouri to have a decent season and they have showed they can compete without him. Last time out they only lost by 4 on a neutral court against a very good West Virginia team. 

As for UCF, there missing some key pieces too. Most notably junior guard B.J. Taylor, who led the team in scoring a season ago at 17.4 ppg and is good enough to take home the AAC Player of the Year honors. He's out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Knights started out 4-0, but have since lost 2 straight. The first coming against the same West Virginia team Missouri almost beat and UCF lost to Mountaineers by 38 points. The other was a 3-point loss to St John's who the Tigers beat by 8. These two teams simply aren't as close as this line would suggest. Take Missouri! 

5* LATE INFO INSIDER 

No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Davidson -

I really like this spot for the Wildcats, who I think are way undervalued here on the road against the 49ers. Charlotte is just 3-2 to start the year, with their 3 wins over the likes of Methodist, Presbyterian and High Point and two of those they won by just single digits. They also lost by 9 at home to College of Charleston. 

Davidson enters off back-to-back losses, as they fell 68-81 at Nevada and 62-78 at Appalachian State. This is still a talented Wildcats team and we are catching them laying a shorter number than they should due to their recent struggles. Note that these two teams played last year and the Wildcats won by 22, as they held the 49ers to just 28% shooting from the field. 

49ers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. Take Davidson! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +

I think we are getting some great value here with UNI as a decently priced dog against SMU. The Mustangs have started out 4-0, but that's no surprise given the cupcake schedule they have had. Only one of their games even had a line and they were favored by 17.5 in that one. I believe SMU's strong start combined with the fact that they are coming off a 30-win season, has them overvalued here against a good Panthers team. Keep in mind that the Mustangs lost 3 players who were either drafted or signed by NBA teams, including last year's AAC Player of the Year in Semi Ojeleye. 

UNI isn't going to wow you with their roster, but Ben Jacobson knows how to get the best out of his team and the Panthers have plenty of talent coming back to finish in the top 4 of the Missouri Valley for a 10th straight season. They showed a lot of that potential in their opener, when they competed in a 17-point loss at UNC. I not only think they can cover the number here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game outright. Take Northern Iowa! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UNLV -

I like the value here with the Rebels laying what I feel is a short number against an inferior team. The big reason we are seeing a low price here on UNLV, is the fact that Eastern Washington comes in off a 67-61 win at Stanford as a 16.5-point underdog. That's a nice win, but that's also a bottom-tier Pac-12 team. The previous game they lost by 10 against Washington, who also isn't anything special. Don't let the fact that the Rebels only won 11 games last year fool you. Head coach Marvin Menzies landed a big time recruiting class, headlined by 6'11 forward Brandon McCoy, who was a Top 10 talent in this year's freshmen class. 

Rebels are 10-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons in November, 10-2 in their last 12 non-conference home games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home off a game where they were listed as a home favorite. Take UNLV! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -

I like the value here with the Wolf Pack laying a short number on the road against the Broncos. Nevada went 28-7 last year, taking home both the MWC regular-season and tournament titles. The Wolf Pack lost some key pieces like Cameron Oliver, Marcus Marshall and D.J. Fenner, but are loaded with talent. They have two of the MWC's best players in Lindsey Drew and Jordan Caroline, plus add in four transfers from Power 5 programs. Two of those being twins Caleb and Cody Martin, who have been huge impacts early, as Caleb leads the team at 25 ppg and Cody is 3rd with 14 ppg. 

Santa Clara is a quality team and have a couple of nice players in K.J. Feagin and Matt Hauser, but the overall depth isn't that great and this is a team that went just 17-16 last year (4th in the WCC). Even with this game at home, I don't think the Broncos have the talent to keep this one competitive against a NCAA Tournament caliber team in the Wolf Pack. Take Nevada! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Arizona State +

It's been a couple of tough years for head coach Bobby Hurley at Arizona State, but all signs point to year 3 being a breakout season for the Sun Devils. Arizona State brings back two big time scorers on the perimeter in senior guards Tra Holder (16.2 ppg) and Shannon Evans (15.0 ppg). It's one of the best backcourts in the Pac-12.

Last year they just didn't have the size inside and had to play 4 guards, which really hurt the defense. That's no longer an issue, as Hurley's Top 25 recruiting class addressed the issue. Freshmen Vitaliy Shibel and juco transfer De'Quon Lake are going to make a big difference this season for the Sun Devils. Lake had 24 points, 8 boards and 3 blocks in the opener, while Shibel only scored 4, he had 8 boards and 4 assists. 

San Diego State has quite a history as Steve Fisher really turned this program into a mid-major power over the years. Unfortunately for the Aztecs Fisher retired and while there's some nice talent on the roster, I think it's asking a lot for this team to go on the road and get a win here. Take Arizona State! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Charleston +

Wichita State is getting all kinds of love coming into the season. The Shockers are ranked in the Top 10, which is a big deal for a non-power 5 team. Wichita St looked impressive in their opener, but that was against Missouri-Kansas City. Most will look to back the Shockers here against Charleston, but this is far from another pushover. The Cougars are the clear favorite to win the CAA and are loaded with experience, returning all 5 starters from last year's 25-win team. I don't think the Cougars have enough to pull off the upset, but I see them easily keeping this within the number. Take Charleston! 

5* NCAAB Opening Weekend GAME OF THE MONTH on La Salle -

I really like the value here with the Explorers laying single digits at home against the Peacocks. La Salle has two of the best players in the A-10 conference in junior Pookie Powell (13.7 ppg) and senior B.J. Johnson (17.6 ppg). They also bring back experience at the point with senior starter Amor Stukes (4.3 apg). If they can get some solid productions from their bigs, I really think this is a sleeper team to watch out for in the A-10 this year. As for St. Peter's they closed out last year by winning the CIT, but the Peacocks lost 3 starters from their 23-win squad, including their top two scorers in Trevis Wyche and Quadir Welton. Take La Salle!

5* N Carolina/Gonzaga National Title NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina -

The Tar Heels have burned me in each of their last two games, where they were in prime position to cover and failed to do so. I'm not jumping off the bandwagon now. I pick North Carolina to win it all when the bracket came out, as I believed they were the most talented team in the field of 68. That's still the case and while Gonzaga has proved me wrong, let's not overlook the path for the Bulldogs to the title game. The best team they faced in terms of seeding was No. 4 West Virginia and they arguably should have lost that game. Gonzaga has great size down low and there bigs do a really good job of passing out of double-teams. North Carolina has elite size and won't have to help on the bigs, which I believe is going to make things really difficult for Gonzaga's offense. Take North Carolina!

5* Final Four Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina -

I really like the value here with the Tar Heels, as I think they should be a much bigger favorite against the Ducks. North Carolina was just in the title game last year and the ability to fall back on that experience of the Final Four is going to pay off in a big way this time around. Not to mention the Tar Heels are the most talented team left in the field. Oregon was impressive in wins over Michigan and Kansas last weekend, but both of those teams were great matchups for the Ducks. The Wolverines and Jayhawks are both guard oriented. North Carolina has great guards, but their strength is their size and talent inside. I believe it's going to be too much for the Ducks to overcome in this one. Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Pac-12 and 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as a favorite. Take North Carolina!

5* Elite Eight Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina -

I really like the value here with the Tar Heels at basically a pick'em at against the Wildcats. Kentucky is coming off a tough game against UCLA, which they had revenge against from an earlier loss. North Carolina on the other hand cruised to a 11-point when over Butler. The Tar Heels had the much easier Sweet 16 matchup and they are the ones playing with revenge, as they fell 100-103 to Kentucky earlier this season. When North Carolina plays like they have been in the tournament, they are without a doubt in my mind the best team in the country. The Tar Heels have the speed and athleticism at the guard positions to limit Fox and Monk for the Wildcats and without those two there's not a lot for Kentucky to go with. Take North Carolina!

5* Sweet 16 NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia +

The public is going to be all over No. 1 seed Gonzaga at this price, but I believe the books have set a nice trap here and know that the Mountaineers are the better team here. I've said this multiple times now. The Bulldogs are a really good team, I'm just not buying they would be a No. 1 seed if they played in a Power 5 conference. West Virginia is more than capable of taking down Gonzaga. The Mountaineers press attack is extremely difficult to prepare for, even when you have had a few days to prepare for it. Until you see it in action, you really don't know what to expect. West Virginia's doesn't have a superstar, but are strong from top to bottom. What also gets overlooked is that while it's know they force a lot of turnovers, people don't realize how well they take care of the basketball and attack the offensive glass. I'll take the points, but I'm calling for the Mountaineers to win outright. Take Gonzaga!

5* Round of 32 Game of the Year on Kentucky -

I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a short favorite against the Shockers. Wichita State is a lot better than their No. 10 seed, but unfortunately for them the poor seeding by the committee has them playing an elite Kentucky team in the 2nd round. The Wildcats were once again the class of the SEC and once the games started meaning a little more this team really came alive. I just think Kentucky is head and shoulders above Wichita State in terms of talent in this one. The Shockers three toughest games in non-conference were against Louisville (lost by 10) Michigan State (lost by 5) and Oklahoma State (lost by 23). Note the game against the Spartans was back when Michigan State was struggling to compete against the elite teams. The Wildcats aree better than all of those teams and I expect them to win here by double-digits. Take Kentucky!

5* Round of 32 Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Arizona -

I really like the value here with the Wildcats laying what I feel is a very short number against the Gaels. Arizona made easy work of North Dakota in their opener, hanging 100 points on the Fighting Hawks. St. Mary's was impressive in their win over VCU, but lets not carried away with a win over a A-10 team. Arizona is on a whole different level and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. When the Gaels have had to face an elite team like the Wildcats (Gonzaga), they have struggled to keep it competitive and I see this being no different. All 3 of their losses to Gonzaga were by double-digits. Take Arizona!

5* NCAA Tourn First Round Game of the Year on USC +

The Trojans pulled off a remarkable comeback in their play-in game on Wednesday against Providence and that's the kind of win that really gives a team the belief and confidence they go do something special. I also love that USC's best player, Boatwright, had a monster game with 24-points. You need your best players playing their best to pull off an upset like this. However, I'm not really sure it would be that big of an upset. USC has already beat SMU once this season.

I know the Mustangs record is impressive and they come in on a huge winning streak, but outside of Cincinnati the AAC is a joke and even the Bearcats aren't an elite team, which is why SMU is 6 seed and not a 2 or 3. I look for this game to go right down to the wire and think there's a really good chance the Trojans win here outright. Take USC!

5* NCAA Tourn First Round NO LIMT Top Play on Iowa State -

I really like the value here with the Cyclones laying single-digits against the Wolf Pack. Nevada gets a lot of love for their showing in the Mountain West, but I don't think it's justified. The Wolf Pack played a soft non-conference schedule. The best team the played was St Mary's and they lost by 18. Iowa State is arguably going to be the best team they have played this season and the Cyclones come into the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. They won the Big 12 tournament and finished 9-1 over their last 10. With so much attention going to Kansas, Baylor and West Virginia, a lot of people overlook how good this ISU team is. They have a ton of experience and one of the elite point guards in the country in senior Monte Morris.

Iowa State can knock down the 3-point shot with the best of them and that's worth noting as Nevada is just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team that makes 8 or more 3-point shots per game. Cyclones are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 tournament games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after winning 3 of their last 4. Take Iowa State!

5* First Round NIT Game of the Year on Iowa -

I look for the Hawkeyes to have no problem cashing in against South Dakota. Iowa is young team that really showed a lot of positive signs towards the end of the season. They ended up getting beat badly in the Big Ten Tournament by Indiana and I think it's going to have them coming out with a chip on their shoulder at home against the Coyotes. Iowa was a much better team at home and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawkeyes ended up winning the NIT.

This isn't just a play on Iowa. South Dakota is in a brutal spot here having to try to emotionally get up for this game after coming so close to the NCAA Tournament. The Coyotes blew a double-digit half-time lead and lost on a last second shot to in-state rival South Dakota State in the Summit League Championship Game. Even if South Dakota State came in 100% locked in, I still think they would struggle to keep this close. Note they lost by 27 to Houston, 12 to Nebraska and by 37 to Gonzaga in non-conference play. Take Iowa!