Sports Picks & Predictions

5* Sweet 16 Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Houston +

Kentucky might be the better seed, but Houston is the better team and I'll take them as a dog all day against the Wildcats. Cougars absolutely destroyed their first two opponents, taking down No. 14 Georgia State 84-55 and No. 11 Ohio State 74-59. This is a team that while ranked, is a lot better than they get credit for. 

A lot of people forget that their run in last year's tournament ended with a heartbreaking 64-63 loss to Michigan, as the Wolverines hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer. That same Michigan team made it all the way to the title game. Houston could very well be the surprise team to not only make the Final 4, but win the whole thing. 

Cougars rank 12th in defensive efficiency and are tops in the country in effective field goal defense. Kentucky is not a great offensive team and chances are they will either be without their leading score PJ Washington or he plays at less than 100%. Wildcats also likely lose to Wofford if their best player doesn't have arguably his worst game of the year (0-12 on 3-pointers). The Cougars are simply the better team. Take Houston! 

5* NCAAB Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -

I think the books are begging for money here on FSU by setting this line as high as they did, knowing that Gonzaga is the far superior team in this matchup and should easily win here by double-digits. 

I think some of it has to do with how good the ACC has been and the fact that the Seminoles whooped the Bulldogs in the Sweet 16 last year, but it has a lot of people on this FSU team. Seminoles were certainly impressive in their win over Murray State, but the Racers were a No. 12 seed, so that shouldn't have been a huge surprise. FSU shot lights out in that game at 50.7% and this is simply not a great shooting team. They had had failed to hit 40% in 4 of their previous 6. 

Gonzaga on the other has failed to shoot 50% or better from the field a mere 6 times the entire season. This is not the same offense that FSU shutdown a season ago. Bulldogs have 4 guys in double-figures and 4 of their top 5 scorers shoot 36% or better from deep. Seminoles won't be able to keep pace. Take Gonzaga! 

5* Texas/Colorado NIT GAME OF THE YEAR  on Colorado +

I absolutely love the value here with the Buffaloes as a decently priced road dog against the Longhorns. Colorado has really been playing great basketball for a while now. The Buffaloes are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. They beat a really strong Dayton team to open up the NIT and then destroyed Norfolk State by 16. 

Texas on the other hand has squeaked by against South Dakota State and Xavier in the NIT and have just simply been way overvalued of late. Longhorns have failed to cover in 5 straight and are just 7-15 ATS this season when listed as a favorite. Texas has also failed to cover 5 straight against a winning record. 

The Buffaloes are 8-3 ATS last 11 off a SU win, 10-2 ATS last 12 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team from the Big 12. Take Colorado! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU -

I love the value here with LSU at basically a pick'em against the Terps. I think the perception with the Tigers right now is there are too many distractions for them to make a deep run. After watching this team against Yale I think this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder. 

As for Maryland, I just haven't been impressed with this team down the stretch. Terps went just 3-3 to close out the regular-season and were bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tourny by Nebraska. They were extremely fortunate to get by Belmont on Thursday and I just think they are way outclassed here. 

LSU has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games with a line of +3 to -3. They are also 8-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 4-0 ATS last 4 games against the Big Ten. After failing to cover against Belmont, Maryland is now 1-7 ATS last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Take LSU! 

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State +

The Big Ten showed really well on Thursday and I expect more of the same on Friday. We saw a Minnesota team that finished 9-11 in the Big Ten whoop up on Louisville and I think we are going to see the same thing here with the Buckeyes in Friday's showdown with ISU. 

Cyclones won the Big 12 Tournament so people are on this team, but they were just 9-9 in the Big 12 regular-season and went just 1-5 over their final 6 before winning 3 in a row in the Big 12 Tournament. Cyclones rely a lot on the jump shot and this Buckeyes team can lock down defensively. If Ohio State simply shoots decent they win this game. Take Ohio State! 

5* NCAA Tournament NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova -

I love the value here with Villanova in this one. I think people are sleeping on this Wildcats team because they weren't as dominant as the team that won it all last year. Chances are they won't win the title for a 3rd time in 4 years, but I see absolutely no reason they don't make easy work of a St. Mary's team that wouldn't be here if Gonzaga didn't lay an egg in the WCC Tournament finale. 

This is also the same Gaels team that failed time after time against the better teams they faced in non-conference, losing to Utah State, Mississippi State, Harvard, UC Irvine and LSU. St Mary's is a team that wants to play slow and that plays right into the hands of how Villanova would prefer the game to go. Wildcats have the two best players on the floor in Phil Booth and Eric Paschall. 

Jay Wright's team won both the regular-season and tournament titles in the Big East and you can't ignore the success they have had in this thing. Villanova attempted the 6th most 3-pointers in the country and ranked 13th in offensive efficiency. If the outside shots are falling they are almost impossible to stay with. 

Outside of that win over Gonzaga in the WCC Title, St Mary's two best wins were against New Mexico State and San Diego. Let's also not forget they lost by 14 at home to the Bulldogs and by 48 at Gonzaga in the two regular-season meetings. Take Villanova! 

5* Nebraska/Butler NIT VEGAS INSIDER Top Play  on Butler +

This is just too good a number to pass up on with Butler. Nebraska was one of those teams that were on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. More times than not, teams who were on the bubble and don't make it, really struggle to play well in that first game of the NIT, regardless if it's at home or not. 

Not only is that a big factor into the value with Butler, but Nebraska is also dealing with all the off-court rumors regarding Fred Hoiberg. He's the leading candidate to take over for Miles and that would be a big time hire for this program. I just think the focus is already on the future and not this game. 

As bad as Butler played down the stretch, I think they are going to show up here and give a strong effort. That not only makes them a strong play at this price, but I give them a great chance of winning the game outright. Cornhuskers have gone just 3-8 ATS last 11 vs a team from the Big East and 3-12-1 ATS last 16 when coming off a loss. Take Butler! 

5* NCAAB Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia State +

Love the value here with the Panthers at basically a pick'em against the Bobcats. Georgia State closed out the regular-season on quite a run. The Panthers won 3 straight and 6 of their final 7 games, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. Texas State on the other hand lost their final two before getting back in the win column yesterday with a victory over South Alabama. 

Note that while the Bobcats had to play on Friday, Georgia State was not in action, giving them a major edge in rest. Texas State did win the most recent meeting on the road, but that's almost a positive for us, as the Panthers are 31-14-4 ATS when playing with revenge and have covered 5 straight in this spot. Take Georgia State! 

5* NCAAB American Tournament TOP PLAY on Cincinnati -

I really like the number here with Cincinnati, as I see the Bearcats beating the Mustangs by double-digits easy. Not only is Cincinnati the better team, but they are going to be desperate for a win after closing out the regular-season with back to back losses. Not that those were bad losses, as they lost at UCF and at home to Houston. 

SMU was able to beat Tulsa yesterday, but while they were playing the Bearcats were resting and this Mustangs team has really struggled away from home and in similar spots. SMU is 5-14 ATS last 19 after playing their previous game as a favorite, 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road after a win and 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after 2 straight wins (won regular-season finale against USF). Take Cincinnati! 

5* NCAAB Big Ten Tournament TOP PLAY on Michigan State -

This might seem like a big number for the Spartans to be laying, but I see Michigan State having zero problem whooping up on the Buckeyes. For starters, they have already done it twice. First they won by 9 as a mere 2-point road favorite in Columbus and then they won by 18 as a 12-point home favorite in the rematch. 

This is also a Michigan State team that in typical Tom Izzo fashion is peaking at the perfect time. After losing 3 straight in late Jan/early Feb the Spartans have gone 7-1 over their last 8, with the only loss coming by 1-point at Indiana after a big win at rival Michigan. 

On top of all that, Michigan State will be getting back one of their best players in big man Nick Ward, who has missed over a month after suffering a broken hand. Spartans are 15-5 ATS last 20 against Big Ten opponents and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off back-to-back home wins by 10 or more. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAB Early Bird Tournament Top Play  on Houston -

The Cougars will have no problem covering the double-digit spread against the Huskies in Friday's AAC quarterfinal action. Houston solidified itself as the best team in the American Athletic with a 85-69 win at Cincinnati in the regular-season finale. Right now the Cougars are projected as a No. 3 seed, but likely need to at least make the title game to avoid slipping back to a No. 4 seed. 

I just don't see UConn being able to make this thing competitive. The Huskies knocked off USF yesterday, but now must play on no rest against the best team in the conference. Only meeting this season the Cougars won by 8 on the road. Might not seem like much, but UConn is a much better team at home. Huskies were just 3-11 on the road. 

UConn is also 0-9 ATS last 9 when playing 3rd time in a week and 0-6 ATS last 6 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days or less. Cougars are 11-4 ATS last 15 when playing only their 2nd game in a week and 12-4 ATS last 16 on the road after winning 15 of their last 20. Take Houston! 

5* NCAAB Mountain West Tournament TOP PLAY on Utah State -

I look for Utah State to lay it on the Lobos Thursday night in the MWC Quarterfinals. The Aggies are one of the better teams in the country that no one knows about. Utah State is 25-6. They lost just 3 games in conference play and their 3 non-conference losses were to Arizona St, BYU and Houston. 

They come into this one riding a 7-game winning streak and will be playing on more than a week of rest, as they lost took the court on March 5th at Colorado State. New Mexico had to play in the opening round of the MWC tournament and while they beat Wyoming 78-68, they only shot 36% from the field, giving them 3 straight games under 42% from the field. Aggies beat the Lobos by 16 in the most recent meeting and are a dominant 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 7 or more days of rest. Take Utah State! 

5* NCAAB Pac-12 Tournament TOP PLAY on Washington -

I'm shocked the Huskies aren't a bigger favorite here. Washington failed to cover their last 4, but a lot of that I think was due to complacency, as they had really had their way with the Pac-12. They were just 2-2 in their last 4 games, yet were still a full 3-games ahead of 2nd place Arizona State. 

I'm confident the Huskies will be 100% locked in for the Pac-12 Tournament and they have a big advantage here playing on 4 days of rest, while USC is forced to play on no rest after a big win over Arizona in the opening round on Wednesday. I just don't trust this Trojans team at all. They were a mere 2-7 in their previous 9 games and lost by 13 in the only meetings against the Huskies. Take Washington! 

5* NCAAB Big East Tournament TOP PLAY on Xavier +

The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Xavier was a great team to fade early on in the season, but the Musketeers have come alive down the stretch. Xavier is 6-1 both SU and ATS over their last 7 games and that includes a 12-point win at home against Villanova. 

Creighton has also caught fire, as they come in having won 5 straight, but it was a pretty favorable stretch as 3 of the 5 were at home and one was on the road at DePaul. They did have a nice win at Marquette, but the Golden Eagles struggled down the stretch and were coming off a crushing loss at Villanova. 

Bluejays are just 2-10 ATS last 12 when they come in having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6, while Musketeers are 29-13 ATS last 42 road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take Xavier! 

5* NCAAB Atlantic 10 Tournament TOP PLAY on George Mason -

The Patriots should have no problem covering the number here against the Colonials. George Washington was able to knock off UMass yesterday in the opening round of the A-10 tournament, but only won by 4 and shot just 31% from the field in the process. Prior to that win the Colonials had lost 5 straight and 9 of their last 10. 

These two teams played twice and George Mason won both times, including a 16-point win at George Washington in the most recent meeting less than a week ago (last Saturday). Not only are the Patriots the better team, but them playing on 4 days rest and the Colonials on no rest is a major advantage that I don't think is being factored into the number here. 

Note that George Washington's cover against UMass was only their 8th cover away from home in their last 30 lined games. Colonials are also 0-7 ATS last 7 road games off a conference win and 1-8 ATS last 9 when revenging a home loss. Take George Mason -7.5! 

5* NCAAB Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse -

I'm shocked the Orange aren't a bigger favorite in this one. Pitt has won two straight, but it's come against Notre Dame and Boston College. Prior to the back-to-back victories the Panthers had lost 13 straight. I just don't see the Panthers being competitive at all here playing on no rest against a hungry Syracuse team that has had 3 days off. 

One of the reasons I think the Orange are showing value is the fact that they lost their final 2 and 4 of their last 5 overall. However, three of those losses came against Duke, North Carolina and Virginia. The other was a road game at Clemson in what was the Tigers final home game. 

Pittsburgh are 5-13 TS last 18 games as an underdog and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when revenging a loss where they scored 60 or less (lost 65-56 at home in last meeting). Orange are 7-1 ATS last 8 off a SU loss by 10 or more and 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Syracuse! 

5* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville -

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. Notre Dame comes in off a win over Georgia Tech on Tuesday thanks to some ridiculous shooting in the first half, which saw the Irish put up 52 points and take a 20-point lead. Notre Dame managed just 26-points in the 2nd half and barely held on for the win. 

The Irish had lost 7 straight and the offense had really been atrocious during that stretch. I just really have a hard time seeing Notre Dame being able to do enough offensively against a very good Louisville defense to keep this one respectable. Cardinals went just 3-7 over their final 10, but note that 5 of the 7 losses came against the top 4 teams in Duke, UNC, FSU and Virginia. 

In the only meeting between the two teams this season, Louisville won by 14 and did so despite going a miserable 2 for 22 from behind the 3-point line. Note they still shot 48% from the field overall and were +19 in rebounds. Simply put, this is a complete mismatch and would take something crazy like the Cardinals shooting under 10% from deep for the Irish to sniff a cover. Take Louisville! 

5* America East GAME OF THE MONTH on Binghamton +

I love the value here with the Bearcats as a massive dog against the Catamounts in Tuesday's semifinal action of the America East Tournament. All Binghamton did in the quarterfinals was take down No. 2 seed Stony Brook 78-72 as a 11-point underdog. The Bearcats had 3 different players score 16+ points, led by freshman Sam Sessoms 26 points. 

I'm not saying Binghamton has a realistic shot of upsetting Vermont, but it's not asking a lot for them to keep this within the number. These two teams played in late February and the Bearcats gave the Catamounts all they could handle in a 69-63 loss as a 14.5-point dog. 

Note the books have been really overvaluing Vermont of late. The Catamounts are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games and have covered just 1 of their last 5 off a SU win. Take Binghamton! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on College of Charleston -

Easy play here for me on the Cougars to cover the big number against the Dragons in the Quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. Charleston finished as the No. 3 seed in the conference and come into this thing having gone 9-2 in their last 11 games. On the flip side of this, Drexel is a mere 3-7 in their last 10 and have lost 5 of their last 6. 

Last time out they got annihilated by 24 at home against Northeastern, as they gave up 90 points and let the Huskies shoot over 53% from the field. I just don't see the Dragons being able to keep this within single-digits. Drexel is 2-11 ATS last 13 off a conference home loss and have lost in this spot by an average of 11.1 ppg. Take Charleston! 

5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge +

The books have completely missed the mark here. No way should the Matadors be this big of a dog against the Anteaters. These two played back in January at Northridge and while Irvine won the game by 6-points, they were very fortunate in doing so. The Anteaters shot just 36% from the field, while the Matadors did as they pleased offensively on their way to 48% shooting. I expect more of the same and wouldn't be surprised at all if Northridge won the game outright. 

The Matadors are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. They are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-1 ATS last 5 inside conference play. Irvine is just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they hosted the Matadors and are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home after playing 3 straight on the road. Take CS-Northridge! 

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU +

I really like the value here with the Mustangs as a big road dog against the Cougars. There's no denying that Houston is one of the elite teams in the AAC and in the country. The Cougars have been a money-making machine for their backers, going 18-9 ATS. I just think with Houston coming off an upset loss at home to UCF the books have drastically inflated the number here knowing the public will be itching to back the Cougars off a loss. 

Keep in mind that when these two teams played at SMU back in January the Mustangs were actually a 1-point favorite, which means the Cougars would have been around a 5-6 point home favorite at that time. The line here is more than double that. 

SMU has been great when playing with revenge, especially if the most recent was a lopsided loss. Mustangs are 26-9 ATS last 35 road games revenging a loss of 10 or more. Take SMU! 

5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern pk

This line really says it all. Northwestern is a pick'em at home, despite the fact that they come into this game having lost 10 straight overall and are just 1-8-1 ATS during this stretch. The key here is the Wildcats haven't been nearly as bad as their record would indicate during this run. THey have really been competitive in all but a couple games during this run. 

They will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Ohio State and I'm confident they get it. Wildcats have covered 5 of 7 at home against the Buckeyes and Ohio State is a mere 5-11 ATS last 16 conference games and just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Northwestern! 

5* NCAAB Horizon GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois-Chicago +

Love the value here with the Flames as a dog against Green Bay in Tuesday's quarterfinal action of the Horizon Tournament. Illinois-Chicago will be out for double-revenge here after losing two close games to the Phoenix in the regular-season. The Flames lost by just 5 at Wisconsin Green Bay in the first meeting and then by just 1 at home in the rematch. 

Illinois-Chicago has gone an impressive 34-15 ATS in their last 49 games played in the month of March. Phoenix are just 52-76 ATS last 128 after covering 4 or more of their last 6 games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 40 or more points in the 1st half in 2 straight games. Take Illinois-Chicago! 

5* NCAAB Big Sky GAME OF THE MONTH on Idaho State +

Love the value here with the Bengals as a small home dog against the Wildcats. Idaho State comes in having lost 5 straight and are getting zero respect from the books because of it. Weber State is not playing like a team that should be laying points on the road. The Wildcats have lost each of their last 2 and 3 of 4 overall. 

Weber State was a 4.5-point dog at North Colorado in their last game and got annihilated 85-61. Wildcats are just 1-6 ATS last 7 after playing their previous game as a dog. Idaho State is also 4-2 ATS this season when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 6-1 ATS last 7 at home with a total of 155 to 159.5. Take Idaho State! 

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane +

I really like the value here with the Green Wave as a big road dog against the Golden Hurricane. Tulane is winless in league play at 0-13 and are just 1-12 on the road. The betting public will be running to the ticket window to take Tulsa and the books have adjusted accordingly. 

Tulsa has been overvalued a lot here of late, as they come in having failed to cover each of their last 3. They may also be without their leading scorer for this game, as DaQuan Jeffries (13.7 ppg) is questionable with a concussion. That would be a massive blow, as there's only 2 other players on the team averaging double-figures. 

Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Green Wave. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that allowed 80 or more points in their last game are 84-41 (67%) ATS when facing a team that has failed to reach 30 points in the 1st half in each of their last 2 games. Take Tulane! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech +

I absolutely love the value here with the Hokies as a decently priced home dog against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to pull out a 75-65 win and cover as a 5-point road favorite at Syracuse on Saturday without Zion Williamson, but I think it's a bit misleading, as the Orange shot a miserable 34.3% from the field. 

Williamson won't be available against the Hokies and I just think it's asking a lot for the Blue Devils to win back-to-back on the road without their best player. Keep in mind Duke only shot 44.1% from the field in the win over Syracuse and that was after they shot a miserable 34.7% against UNC at home when Zion went down in the first minute of the game. 

Hokies have really been playing strong defense and we know we are going to get everything they have on that side of the ball in this one. I not only think it allows them to keep it within the number, but to win this game outright. Take Virginia Tech! 

5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out in a 73-65 win at home over Pitt. I get that Georgia Tech is one of the worst teams in the ACC, but their 4-wins in conference are more than what Miami has. There's simply no reason for the Hurricanes to be laying this kind of number against any team in the conference, even at home. 

Time after time when Miami has got matched up with a poor team they have been way overvalued and that's evident by the Hurricanes 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Miami is also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 conference home games. 

Georgia Tech on the flip side of this is a team that is routinely undervalued on the road. Yellow Jackets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on the road in games played on Saturday (7-2 ATS last 9 on the road overall). They are also 9-3 ATS 12 vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech! 

5* NCAAB Small Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +

This is way too many points for the Dukes to be catching on the road against the Huskies. Northeastern is simply overvalued right now due to the fact that they come in having gone 9-2 over their last 11 games. They started out this run by going 7-1 ATS, but the books have adjusted big time and they come in having failed to cover 3 straight, including a mere 12-point win as a 17-point home favorite over Elon. 

These two teams played once already at James Madison and the Dukes held their own in a 10-point loss. James Madison comes in off back-to-back wins and are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. They have shot 51% or better in all 3 of those covers and Northeastern has allowed Charleston to shoot 48% and UNC-Wilmington to hit 49% in their last 2 games. 

Dukes have also covered 20 of their last 27 on the road against teams like the Huskies who are good 3-point shooting teams (average 8 or more made 3-pointers/game). The road team is also a dominant 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in the series. Take James Madison! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on William & Mary -

I absolutely love the value here with the Tribe as a small road favorite against the Phoenix. Elon is coming into this game off a 12-point loss at Northeastern, but did manage to cover the massive 17-point spread. That right there is enough reason to back William & Mary, as the Phoenix are a miserable 4-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a game where they covered. 

Elon is also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 when listed as an underdog and 2-9 ATS in the month of February. The reason the Phoenix are getting respect from the books is because they beat William & Mary earlier this season. However, that's another big positive for us, as the Tribe are a dominant 17-5 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss and 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite. Take William & Mary! 

5* NCAAB Metro Atlantic Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Marist +

I love the value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Bobcats. Marist comes in off back-to-back wins and have covered 4 of their last 5, including a 78-71 win at Canisius as a 4-point dog.

These two teams played earlier in the season and Quinnipiac won by 14-points. However, Marist shot 54% from the field and were only down 2-points at the half. They basically lost the game at the free throw line, where they went 7 of 14. 

Red Foxes are 34-18 ATS last 52 off a home win by 10 or more and the underdog is 8-3 ATS last 11 in the series. Bobcats are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 at home vs a marginal losing team (win percent 40% to 49%) and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home vs teams who attempt 21 or more 3-points at least 15+ games into the season. Take Marist! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel +

Love the value here with Drexel as a pick'em on the road against James Madison. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won 73-68 at home. The Dukes were very lucky to lose by just 5. Drexel shot a miserable 20% from 3-point range (3-15). 

Expect much better shooting this time around, as the Dragons are coming off a game against Charleston where they shot 54% from the field for the game. Drexel has also covered each of their last 7 games and are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record.

Adding to all this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Dukes. In games involving two marginal losing teams (winning 40% to 49%) the home team is a mere 28-58 ATS if they have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games. That's a 67% system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -

Love the value here with Baylor at basically a pick'em on their home floor. The Bears come in off a 12-point loss at Texas, but played well enough to win, the Longhorns simply couldn't miss (shot 55%).

Baylor had won and covered 6 straight prior to that loss and I'm confident they return back to form. They have won 3 straight at home and are 7-1 ATS over their 6-3 start to Big 12 play. K-State has been playing well, but this is a big letdown spot for the Wildcats coming off a huge win at Kansas. 

Bears are 7-1 ATS lat 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog, 7-0 ATS last 7 after covering 4 of their last 5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game. Take Baylor!

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU -

This line really says it all. USF comes in having won 3 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, while SMU enters having lost their last 2 and are just 1-4 in their last 5. You wouldn't expect the Bulls to be a 5-point dog here, but that just tells you how much the books not only like the Mustangs to win but to do so rather easily. 

The biggest thing to keep in mind with SMU's 1-4 stretch over their last 5 is just how tough the schedule has been. Out of the 4 losses, 3 were on the road against the likes of Cincinnati, Wichita State and Memphis. The only loss at home was to arguably the best team in the league in Houston. 

In their other 3 conference home games this season they have beat Tulane by 10, Tulsa by 20 and East Carolina by 28. USF's only road win in the AAC is against Tulane and they are the only team in the conference that has yet to win a game (just 4-17 overall). 

Bulls are 14-28 ATS last 42 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6.5 points, while the Mustangs are 23-12 ATS last 35 as a home favorite and 12-3 ATS last 15 at home when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take SMU! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pepperdine +

Books have the wrong team favored in this one. Pepperdine should have zero problem leaving Pacific with a win Saturday night. The Waves just absolutely rolled Portland 83-58 as a mere 5-point road favorite last time out. That's 3 straight covers, giving them a 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 games. 

Clearly the books are not giving Pepperdine the respect they deserve. Pacific is a mere 2-6 SU in their last 8 and have failed to cover 3 straight. Note that the two wins for the Tigers are both against Portland and neither came easy. For those that don't know, Portland is the worst team in the WCC (currently 0-8 in conference play). Take Pepperdine! 

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Quinnipiac +

Love the value here with the Bobcats getting points against the Golden Griffins. Canisius is getting way too much love here at home, as they have shown to have little to no home court advantage. The Golden Griffins are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in home lined games this season. 

Another big reason I like Quinnipiac here is they will extra motivated to get revenge from a crushing 2-point loss at home to Canisius earlier this season. This is definitely the time to jump on the Bobcats, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win, 7-0 ATS last 7 road games with a total of 140 to 149.5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Take Quinnipiac! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown -

Easy play here on the Bears as a slim road favorite at Dartmouth Friday night. Brown is simply the better team, but the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses to Yale and the Big Green split their two games against Harvard, we are getting a great price on them. Yale looks like the team to beat in the Ivy League so far and the Bears played them tough in both meetings, losing by just 3 at home and by 8 on the road. 

Dartmouth had the big upset over Harvard at home, but let's not forget the Big Green were the consensus pick to finish last in the Ivy League and this is a spot they have struggled in. Dartmouth is a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games against a top tier team that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Bears are also a strong 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road. Take Brown! 

5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacific +

The Tigers should have zero problem covering here at Loyola-Marymount. The overall records make it look like the Lions are the far superior team, but I think this is a very evenly matched game. Pacific is 2-5 and getting outscored by 6.3 ppg in conference play. Loyola-Marymount is only 3-4 and are getting outscored by 4.7 ppg. 

The Tigers come into this game off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread, but that's actually a positive for us. Pacific is 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons after failing to cover two straight. The Tigers are are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a conference win. Lions are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Take Pacific! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel +

This is the perfect spot to jump on the Dragons as a road dog. Drexel hosted William & Mary earlier this season and got embarrassed 84-66. That's not a concern here, as the Dragons are a remarkable 25-9 ATS in their last 34 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more. 

The Tribe are also a team that you want to fade at home against bad teams. William & Mary are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games in the month of January and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. The Tribe have also failed to cover 5 straight, while the Dragons are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Drexel! 

5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge +

The Matadors will have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog against the Titans. These two teams have pretty much identical records, but we are seeing the line heavily shaded in favor of Cal State Fullerton because they come in having won 4 straight and covered 3 in a row. 

I just think this line should be closer to 3, giving us more than 4-points in value on a team that can win this game outright. Adding to this, we see that the Matadors are a dominant 9-1 ATS last 10 road games in the month of January and are a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games off a SU win. Take CS-Northridge! 

5* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco -

Amazing value here with the Dons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Toreros. San Francisco comes in having won 3 straight. The last two in blowout fashion, beating BYU by 19 and Portland by 22. Dons are 14-3 ATS last 17 when off a conference win by 20 or more. 

There's also a big time system in play favoring the Dons to cover. Road favorites who are a strong offensive team (74-78 ppg) against a sub-par defensive team (67-74 ppg) are 53-22 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Take San Francisco! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Cornell +

Love the value here with Cornell getting this many points. These two teams played each other last time out and the Big Red pulled out a 60-59 win at home. A pretty impressive victory given they were so sloppy with the ball. Cornell had 20 turnovers, wich was their most in a game since early December. 

I think they clean up those mistakes and not only cover the spread, but win this game outright. Columbia is just 2-10 ATS last 12 at home when revenging a loss of 3-points or less.

Great system favoring a play on the Big Red. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are coming off a home win by 3-points or less and have a winning percentage between 45%-55% are 161-97 (62%) ATS since 1997. Take Cornell! 

5* NCAAB Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel +

Too much value to pass up with the Dragons catching this many points on the road against the Blue Hens. Drexel comes in off back-to-back wins where they covered the spread and are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4.

Delaware has dropped 2 of their last 3, including a loss at home to Towson as a similarly priced 5.5-point favorite. Dragons have covered 7 of their last 10 in conference play and Drexel head coach Zach Spiker is 11-2 in road games when his team is coming off a home win. Take Drexel! 

5* NCAAB Ivy League GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown +

The Bears should have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog at Yale. The Bulldogs are getting way too much respect here because they are a perfect 5-0 at home, enter on a 7-game winning streak and are 3-1 ATS last 4. 

Just so happens these two teams just played each other in their last game on Saturday. Yale barely snuck out a 70-67 win. It's really tough to beat the same team twice in a short window like this, especially when you have a quality team like Brown. I actually think the Bears have a really good shot at winning this game outright. 

Either way they are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 road games off a home loss, 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after a game where they failed to cover and 5-0 last 5 on the road overall. Take Brown! 

5* NCAAB West Coast (WCC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola Marymount +

I like the Lions to win this game outright, making them an easy play here as a decently priced dog. San Diego has been overvalued here of late, as the Toreros are just 2-5 ATS last 7. Last time out they got rolled by 17 points at St Mary's. They were also upset in their most recent home game, losing 76-71 to Pepperdine as a 8-point favorite. 

Loyola-Marymount comes in off a win over Pepperdine at home, but did fail to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. That's okay, as the Lions have cashed 8 of their last 10 games when coming off a ATS loss. Lions are also 8-3 ATS last 11 road games, 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Loyola-Marymount! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on St. Peter's +

Love the Peacocks here. St. Peter's should have no problem winning this game, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point dog. The Purple Eagles should not be favored. These two teams have played 4 common opponents.

While the Peacocks are just 1-3, Niagara is 0-4. The defensive numbers really stand out, as St Peters only gave up 58.5 ppg in these 4, while the Purple Eagles are allowing 77 ppg. 

The Peacocks have gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning record. They are also 8-2 ATS last 10 in conference play and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a game where they failed to cover. 

Niagara has failed to cover 5 of their last 7, are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 home games on Tuesday night and 4-18 ATS last 22 at home after playing 5 straight games as an underdog. Take St. Peter's!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson +

Love the value here with the Tigers at this price. Towson comes in having lost 6 straight and failed to cover the spread in all 6. It's been some bad luck for the Tigers, as all 6 losses have been respectable. The most they lost by in this stretch is 12-points. 

Delaware is coming in off a win and cover at home against James Madison. They have struggled i this spot historically, going just 39-61 ATS at home at a cover. I think the Blue Hens will really struggle to give the Tigers the respect they deserve. Wouldn't be shocked at all if Towson won this game.

Adding to this is a big time system in play on the Tigers. Underdogs who are coming off a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field are 78-34 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games where you have two average defensive teams that are allowing teams to shoot 42.5%-45%. Take Towson +6!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY  on Marist +

Big time value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Gaels. Marist is way undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 5 of their last 6. Iona is also overvalued having won 3 of 5. Gaels covered last time out and are just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 after covering their previous game. 

Marist has had no problem cashing in a winning ticket when they visit Iona, as they are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 trips to face the Gaels. 

It's also worth pointing out that Iona comes into this game off a 88-70 road win at Canisius, which puts the Gaels into a very profitable system to fade. Favorites on Friday nights that are coming off an upset win as a road dog are a mere 18-52 (25.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marist! 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +

The Dukes should have no problem covering the small number here at Delaware, as I got them winning this game outright. James Madison comes in off two strong games, as they beat Towson 74-65 as a 4-point favorite and won 69-58 at home against College of Charleston as a 8.5-point dog. 

As for the Blue Hens, they just lost at College of Charleston by 13, snapping their 4-game win streak. I look for Delaware to struggle again here, as they are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home after going 4-1 in their previous 5 games.

The Dukes are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a quality team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home. Take James Madison! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson +

This series has been dominated by the road dog. The road team has covered 8 of the last 12 and the underdog has cashed in 11 of the last 17. Towson is 4-1-1 in their last 6 trips to Drexel. I not only like them to keep it within the number, but I think the Tigers win this game outright. 

Thees are two of the worst teams in the Colonial Athletic and there's just not any home court edge for a team like the Dragons. One area where Towson should have a big edge is on the boards. Tigers are outrebounding opponents by an average of 6/game. Dragons are 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team that averages +4 or better rebound margin and have lost these game by an average of 10 points. Take Towson! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH BEST BET on Towson +

The books have completely missed the mark here with the Tigers as a 5-point road dog. My numbers show this game should be a lot closer to a pick'em. James Madison has the better record, but that's simply because they played the much easier non-conference schedule. 

The Dukes won and covered their last time out, but are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a game where they covered. James Madison is also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Towson! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara +

Love the value here with the Purple Eagles as a dog against the Stags. Fairfield is getting way too much credit on their home floor. The Stags are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their 4 home games this season. 

Niagara is simply the better team and my numbers say they should be the ones favored in this matchup. The Purple Eagles have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Niagara is also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS last 6 after two or more losses. 

On top of all that, we find a great long-term system backing the away team. Road teams of +3 to -3 that have allowed 75 or more points in 2 straight games are 66-34 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a team that just allowed 85 or more. Take Niagara! 

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Wichita 

I love the value here with the Shockers at a pick'em on their home floor. I think we are going to get a huge effort here from Wichita State coming off a couple of road losses to VCU and Memphis. Shockers didn't play up to their potential in either game. 

Temple is a quality team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now and this is not an easy spot for the Owls. Temple just played at UCF on Wednesday and have played a mere 1 home game since Nov. 16. 

Shockers are 5-1 at home this season and their defense has been outstanding at home. Wichita State is holding teams to 63.8 ppg and 40.1% shooting at home. I like the Shockers to not just win, but win comfortably. Take Wichita State! 

5* MAAC College Hoops GAME OF THE MONTH on Canisius +

The books have completely missed the mark here. My ratings say the Golden Griffens, despite their 3-8 record, should be favored in this matchup against 5-7 Marist.

Canisius has played a brutal schedule to this point and it simply has them way undervalued here. We just saw this team win outright as a dog at Elon and cover as a 7-point dog at Holy Cross a few days later. 

These two have a common opponent in Buffalo and while both loss, the Griffens lost by just 15, where the Red Foxes lost by 27 and managed just 49 points. Last year Canisus won both meetings and have won 4 of the last 5. 

Golden Griffins are 19-7 ATS last 26 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs the MAAC. Take Canisius! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +

The Dukes should have zero problem here covering on the road against the Tribe. James Madison comes in off an ugly 75-48 loss at Fordham as a mere 3.5-point dog and that's definitely playing into this inflated number on William & Mary. 

It's been a wise move to jump on the Dukes in this spot, as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 20 points or more. 

We are also talking about a William & Mary team that has only won 4 games all season. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents. The Dukes are 1-2 vs those teams and the Tribe are 0-3. 

William & Mary is also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning straight up record and the Dukes are a rock solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs a team from the CAA. Take James Madison! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida +

I cashed in on the Gators in their 10-point win over West Virginia and I'll gladly back them as a home dog here against the Spartans. Florida beat the Mountaineers by double-digits, despite shooting a mere 33.3% from the field. Note that game was played on a  neutral court. 

This has been a much different Florida offense at home, where they are averaging 85.3 ppg and shooting 53.1% from the field. It's not so much the offense, as it is the defense that has me liking the Gators here. Michigan State took won't have the same advantages against Florida as they did in their 22-point blowout win at home against Iowa, where they shot 52%. 

Spartans are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games after 2 or more wins and are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take Florida! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH  on Oklahoma -

This is a no-brainer for me. I think Oklahoma is the better team and it's not even close. While both teams come into this game with a 6-1 record, the Sooners' 6-1 record has been a lot more impressive. 

Oklahoma's only loss is to a Wisconsin team that figures to finish near the top of the Big Ten. They have impressive wins over Florida and Dayton and have only played 2 true home games so far this season. Notre Dame has a 2-point win over Illinois on it's resume, but also a loss at home to Radford. Irish have also played all 7 of their games at home. 

Both teams lost a lot from last year, but I think a lot more people wrote off Oklahoma because they lost a superstar in Trae Young. While Young was the talk of CBB, the Sooners went just 4-12 down the stretch. A lot of that was it was a one-man show. This year they are playing much better team basketball and a lot better defense. I look for them to win this one going away. Take Oklahoma! 

5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -

I got no problem laying this number here at home with the Buckeyes against the Gophers. Minnesota is going to be a trendy pick here by the pubic, as this will look like too many points for them to be catching, as they are 6-1 with wins over Utah, Texas A&M, Washington and most recently Oklahoma State.

However, their lone loss came in their only true road game against Boston College and they got rolled by 12-points and shot a miserable 29.2% from the field. Ohio State can really lock teams down defensively and were playing extremely well (won true road games at Cincinnati and Creighton) before a setback at home against a quality Syracuse team. 

Buckeyes lost to the Orange by a final score of 72-62 and that's worth noting, as they are a prefect 5-0 ATS last 5 times they have come off a double-digit home loss. Gophers on the other hand are 0-4 ATS last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 1-9 ATS last 10 off a cover. Home team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and Gophers are 1-10 ATS last 11 trips to Columbus. Take Ohio State! 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Dayton +

The public is going to be all over the ranked Bulldogs, but I don't think Mississippi State should be favored. I wasn't all that impressed with the Bulldogs showing in Las Vegas. They lost outright to Arizona State as a 4.5-point favorite and barely held on for a 4-point win against St. Mary's. 

Dayton on the other hand is a team I think is flying under the radar. The Flyers struggled in the first year under head coach Anthony Grant, but return 4 starters and outside of an awful 10 minutes stretch against Oklahoma, I've liked what I have seen. 

Dayton only lost by 7 on a neutral court to Virginia and shot 54.3% from the field, which is outstanding against that Cavaliers' defense. They were up decent on Oklahoma in the 2nd half, but went ice cold and scored 2 points in a 10-minute stretch. 

With the Bulldogs not quite as good as people think and this being Mississippi State's first true road game, I like Dayton to win this matchup. Flyers are 13-5 ATS L18 vs a team from the SEC, while Bulldogs are 1-11 ATS last 12 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat Alcorn St by 23 last time out). Take Dayton! 

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Loyola-Chicago +

Expectations were sky-high for Loyola-Chicago coming into this year after that Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament a year ago. I think a lot of people are off this team though after their 4-2 start, which includes a double-digit loss to Boston College last time out. 

I still think the Ramblers are a very dangerous team, especially on their home floor and Nevada is simply getting too much respect. The Wolf Pack come in with a perfect 6-0 record and averaging 92 ppg. They aren't a bad team, but they have played a soft schedule and will get knocked off at some point. I think there's a good chance it happens tonight, as this will be their first true road game of the 2018 season. 

Ramblers are 15-6 ATS last 21 as an underdog and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off a loss by 10 or more points. Take Loyola-Chicago! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary +

Big time value here with the Tribe as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has really shot the ball poorly to start the season. They are shooting just 38.7% from the field thru three games. Last time out they went 22 of 61 (36.1%) in a 63-60 loss at home to Radford. 

Irish are a mere 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games vs a bad team that's won between 20%-40% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less. 

Tribe are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games after allowing previous two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games after a game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take William & Mary! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara +

It's been quite the impressive start for the Purple Eagles. They opened the year with a 80-72 win at home as a dog against St. Bonaventure, then proved it was no fluke with a competitive loss and cover at Loyola-Chicago. 

I go ahead and take the points for insurance, but I like Niagara to win this game outright. Wyoming has been overvalued in each of their first three, as they haven't covered a spread yet and I think the books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team. 

Cowboys are a mere 5-13 ATS last two seasons as a favorite. It's also worth noting that in that closer than expect loss to the Ramblers, the Purple Eagles shot a dreadful 29.2% from the field. Under head coach Chris Casey they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they shot 33% or worse. Take Niagara! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play  on Niagara +

I really like the value here with the Purple Eagles as a big dog against everyone's favorite Cinderella story from last year in Loyola-Chicago. Last year the Ramblers surprised everyone all the way to the Final Four. With that success comes expectations, as well as a pretty big target on your back. 

We have already seen them stumble, as they lost their second game of the season to Furman at home as a 8.5-point favorite. Loyola shot just 37% from the field. All Niagara did in their first game is upset a St Bonaventure team at home 80-72 as a 4.5-point dog. A team that you might recall won 26 games last year. 

The biggest thing for me with the Ramblers is last year's success came in year 7 under head coach Porter Moser, so it's not like he just arrived and flip the script. It tells me last year's success was about the talent on hand and while they got some nice pieces back they lost three seniors who played big roles. I'm not saying they won't win this one, I just don't seem them winning by double-digits. Take Niagara! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -

I love the Illini at this price against the Hoyas. I think this Illinois team might be one of the biggest sleepers in the country. Brad Underwood had a great track record of improving teams in his first year on the job, but Illinois actually got worst in his first go of things last season. 

Underwood could have had basically the same team back, but instead got rid of the players that didn't fit his system and added in a bunch of talent (6 freshmen, 2 transfers). One of those freshman is 5-star point guard Ayo Dosunmu, who now gives them 3 playmakers in the backcourt with the return of senior Aaron Jordan and sophomore Big Ten All-Freshman guard Trent Frazier. 

Georgetown had similar struggles in the first year under head coach Patrick Ewing. I don't see the same upside with the Hoyas in year-two. Georgetown is 2-0, but only beat Maryland Eastern Shore by 15 as a 30.5-point favorite then had to hold on for a 7-point win at home against Central Connecticut. Illinois put up 99 in a 36-point win over Evansville as a mere 16-point favorite and that same Evansville team only lost by 6-points the next time out at Xavier. 

I just don't see Georgetown being able to keep pace offensively with this Illini team, especially on the road. Take Illinois! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal-Irvine +

I fully expect UC Irvine to a be a team people are talking about as a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament. The Anteaters are absolutely loaded in terms of experience and talent for a team of their size. Irvine gets back all 5 starters, their top 3 reserves and talented redshirt freshman Collin Welp. 

It's why the Anteaters are as short a dog as they are against a Power 5 program in Texas A&M, who has two starters back from last year's Sweet 16 team. The thing with the Aggies is they figure to be down a few notches after losing one of the best frontcourts in the country with Tyler Davis, D.J. Hogg and Robert Williams all gone. In total they lost 4 guys 6-9 or taller who averaged at least 6.7 ppg and 4.4 rpg. 

I not only think the Anteaters will keep this thing close enough to cover, but I like them to win this one outright. They already won and covered as a 15-point favorite in their season opener (shot 54% from the field). Aggies on the other hand won by just 15 as a 29-point favorite. Take UC-Irvine! 

5* NCAAB Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Fran +

I'm shocked the Dons are a dog in this fight, but I'll gladly take some insurance points in a game I see San Francisco winning rather easily. The Dons have won 42 games in the first two seasons under head coach Kyle Smith and made it all the way to the CBI Finals last March. 

This year's team looks even stronger than the one that went 22-17 and finished 4th in the WCC behind the likes of Gonzaga, St Mary's and BYU. They probably can't challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I could definitely see them surprising and finishing higher in the standings. 

UC Davis is also off a strong season and et back Big West Player of the Year T.J. Shorts, but lost two key starters, including China Moneke, who nearly averaged a double-double (18.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg). I just don't see them keeping pace with the Dons in this one. Take San Francisco! 

5* NCAAB 'CBI' Champ Game VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -

I like the value here with the Mean Green in Friday's CBI Championship Game. Unlike the other postseason tournaments, where it's win or go home, the CBI plays a best of 3 series for the title. These two teams have split the first two games of the series with the home team dominating in each matchup.

San Francisco won Game 1 at home 72-62. North Texas responded with a 69-55 win in game 2. The Mean Green were a similar 3.5-point home favorite in Game 2 and I just don't see any reason not to back North Texas in the rubber match at home. 

San Fran is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games, while the Mean Green are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Take North Texas! 

5* NCAAB 'CIT' Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Illinois Chicago +

I like the value here with Illinois-Chicago in Wednesday's matchup against Liberty in the semifinals of the CIT. I just feel like UIC isn't getting near enough respect here and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are without leading scorer Dikembe Dixon. He didn't play in either of their first two games in this tournament and they won by 23 as a mere 5-point favorite against St Francis-PA and followed that up with a 83-81 win at Austin Peay as a 4-point dog. UIC put up 80+ in both wins and have now scored 75 or more in 10 of their last 11. 

Liberty put up 84 in their most recent game against Central Michigan, but that was more of a result of them taking advantage of a bad Chippewas defense. They also shot lights out, hitting on 56% of their attempts. Prior to that Liberty had eclipsed 70 points just once in their previous 7 games. UIC is allowing just 72.6 ppg on the season and have held opponents to 40.7% from the field. Keep in mind UIC played the much tougher schedule this season. I actually think this should be closer to a pick'em. Take Illinois-Chicago! 

5* NCAA Tourn Rd of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn -

I love the value here with Auburn at basically a pick'em against Clemson in Sunday's Round of 32 action out of the Midwest Region. Auburn won their opener 62-58 over Charleston. That was a lot closer than most expected, as they were a 9.5-point favorite, but that's a much better Charleston team than most people realize. It didn't help that Auburn shot about as poor as they could, hitting just 35.6% from the field. 

Clemson had a little easier time in their first game, as they beat New Mexico State 79-68 behind a red-hot 55.9% shooting. I just think the contrasting victories have created some big time value here with Auburn. I look for Clemson to have a much tougher time offensively against this Auburn defense, while I expect Auburn to be much more efficient from the offensive side of the ball. 

Clemson hasn't exactly excelled in this spot. They are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing on the road in their 2nd game in a week. Take Auburn!

5* NCAA Tournament No Limit TOP PLAY on UMBC +

I love the value here with the Maryland-Baltimore Country catching a huge number against No. 1 overall seed Virginia. Most people probably didn't even know UMBC was a school and that unfamiliarity combined with the Cavaliers being ranked No. 1 overall will have the public backing Virginia. I think the books were well aware of this action and have inflated this line to where there's tremendous value with the underdog. 

You hear it all the time, great guard play is critical in the NCAA Tournament. Well the Retrievers are led by their backcourt of Jairus Lyles and K.J. Maura. Both of which are very quick off the dribble and have great instincts on defense. They create a lot of easy looks from deep with their penetration and generate a lot of steals on the defense, allowing UMBC to get out in transition. 

I know Virginia doesn't have a ton of holes, but I think the pressure of the Retrievers and the Cavaliers potentially not giving this team their full amount of respect with much bigger games looming, will allow UMBC to keep this game a lot closer than most expert. Take Maryland-Baltimore County! 

5* NCAA Tournament Rd of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Marshall +

I love the value here with the Thundering Herd as a big dog against the Shockers in Friday's first round action out of the East Region. Marshall's head coach is Dan D'Antoni, who is the brother of Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni. As you might have guessed the two have similar philosophies on the offensive side and want to try and outscore teams by outshooting them from long-distance. 

It worked really well down the stretch for Marshall, who punched their ticket to the Big Dance by winning the C-USA Tournament. The Thundering Herd average 10-made 3-pointers a game and have 7 different players who shoot 33% or better from deep. That long-range attack helped them average 84.3 ppg. 

While Wichita State has the offensive fire-power to hang with Marshall and likely ultimately win this game, they are definitely on upset alert. That's because the Shockers aren't as good defensively as they have been in years past. One of their biggest weaknesses was defending the 3-point shot, making this a horrible matchup out of the gates. I think the Thundering Herd give them a scare and maybe win this one outright. Take Marshall! 

5* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Stephen F Austin +

I love the value here with the Lumberjacks catching double-digits against Texas Tech in Thursday's first round action out of the East Region. Stephen F. Austin has a lot of great qualities for success in the NCAA Tournament. The Lumberjacks have great depth and balance on the offensive side of the ball. They also bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball and as a result led the nation in turnover percentage and steels. That pressure often leads to a lot of good looks on the offensive side of the ball, especially from long-range, where Stephen F. Austin is deadly from. 

As for Texas Tech, this is a team that really lost its mojo down the final leg of the season. The Red Raiders went just 2-5 over their final 7 games and the two wins could have easily been losses, as both came by 4-points or less. Rarely do you see a team that comes into the Big Dance struggling flip the switch and go on a deep run. If Texas Tech struggles with the pressure of the Lumberjacks, they not only aren't going to cover, but they may lose this game outright. Take Stephen F. Austin! 

5* CBI Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on New Orleans -

I love the value here with the Privateers laying a short number against the Vaqueros in Wednesday's CBI action. Both of these teams finished the season poorly, but I still think New Orleans is the far superior team here. Looking back at non-conference play, we see both teams played at SMU. While both teams lost, the Privateers kept it respectable in a 13-point defeat, while the Vaqueros got annihilated by 31 points. 

The other big key here is UT-Rio Grande Valley was not good on the road and they come in a mere 1-9-1 ATS over the last 11 road games. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games The Privateers were a solid 9-3 on their home court and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss by more than 20 points (lost by 22 to Sam Houston St in conference tournament). Take New Orleans! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Arizona -

I love the value here with the Wildcats laying a short number against the Trojans in the Pac-12 Tournament title game on Saturday. You have to give USC props for how well they have played without one of their best players in Bennie Boatwright, but I don't see the run continuing here against one of the best teams in the country, especially now that the Trojans are playing their 3rd game in 3 days.  

Arizona has won 4 straight and are 7-1 in their last 8. Any concerns about this team being hurt by all the off the court drama that's going on can be thrown out the window. If anything, it has brought this team together and have them playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder.

The Wildcats made easy work of the Trojans in the lone meeting this season, winning by 14 on their home floor. It could have been a lot worse, as Arizona shot 56% from the field and finished with a +18 edge on the boards. Those are two great signs that the Wildcats are the far superior team and will have no problem getting the win here. Take Arizona! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Houston -

I like the value here with the Cougars in Friday's American Athletic action, as I think Houston wins this by double-digits no problem. The Cougars have been one of the best kept secrets in the country. Houston finished 24-6 and were 14-4 in the AAC. They went 8-1 over their last 9 games and several of those were close. 

UCF comes in off back-to-back wins over Tulane and East Carolina, with the win over the Pirates coming in yesterday's AAC Tournament action. That's important to note, as Houston got a bye and will have a big rest advantage here with the Knights playing for the 2nd time in 2 days. The only meeting between these two teams this season came at UCF, which the Cougars won 69-65. 

The Knights are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as a favorite. Take Houston! 

5* NCAAB No Limit TOP PLAY on Davidson -

I like the value here with the Wildcats in Friday's A-10 action against the Billikens. Davidson saved it's best basketball for late in the year, as they closed out the regular season on a 8-2 run with the only two losses coming at Rhode Island (A-10 regular season champs) and at St. Bonaventure (finished 2nd in A-10) in triple-overtime. 

These two teams played just once in the regular-season. Davidson won that contest at home 54-51. Note that was back before they caught fire, so there's every reason to expect a larger margin of victory tonight, especially given the rest advantage for the Wildcats. Davidson didn't have to play yesterday, while St Louis had to take on George Washington. Look for that to play a big part in the Wildcats winning here by more than the number. Take Davidson! 

5* NCAAB SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky -

I love the value here and spot for the Wildcats, as they will take on Georgia in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Kentucky defeated the Bulldogs in the lone meeting this season and have won 10 straight in the series overall. 

This is a big spot for the Wildcats, who are going to want to bounce back with a strong showing here after an ugly double-digit loss at Florida to close out the regular season. Georgia just isn't a team I feel that can compete with Kentucky given the circumstances. While the Bulldogs will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, the Wildcats will be playing their first game of the tournament after receiving a double-bye. This is a statement game for Kentucky and I expect them deliver with a convincing win. Take Kentucky! 

5* NCAAB A-10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Joe's -

I love the value here with the Hawks in Friday's A-10 action against George Mason. St. Joseph's closed out the regular-season on a tear, going 6-1 in their final 7 games, which includes that impressive 78-48 win at Rhode Island as a 13.5-point dog. I look for the Hawks to have zero problem making easy work of the Patriots. 

George Mason is at a big disadvantage here in terms of rest. While St. Joseph's got a bye for yesterday's action, the Patriots had to take on UMass. It wasn't an easy win, as George Mason escaped with a 75-70 victory. I just don't see them having enough left in the tank here and we know we are going to get the very best the Hawks have to offer. St Joseph's is playing with double-revenge from two extremely close losses to the Patriots, losing by 2 at George Mason and by 3 at home. 

Hawks haven't played since last Saturday and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games when playing only their 2nd game in a week. They are also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 away from home when they come in having won at least 6 of their last 8 games. Take St. Joseph's! 

5* NCAAB MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boise State

I like the value here with the Broncos in Thursday's MWC action against the Aggies. Boise State was by the far better team during the regular season. The Broncos went 23-7 with a 13-5 mark in the MWC, while Utah State was just 16-15 with a 8-10 mark in conference play. The Aggies defeated Colorado State 76-65 yesterday, but that was to be expected. 

Now Utah State is being forced to play on no rest, while the Broncos are playing on 4 days of rest. Boise State is going to want to play well in this tournament after going just 3-3 down the stretch. They will also be extremely motivated here playing with revenge from a loss in the last meeting with Utah State. 

The Aggies have won and covered their last two games, but are a mere 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after successfully covering the spread in 2 straight games. They are also a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a good team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games. Take Boise State! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Prime Time TOP PLAY on Duke

I like the value here with the Blue Devils in Thursday's showdown with Notre Dame in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. There's no question that the Irish are a different team with Colson in the lineup and likely deserve to be included in the NCAA Tournament regardless if they win this game or not. 

Either way, I don't think they will have enough gas left in the tank to keep this game competitive against what should be a very motivated Duke side. Notre Dame had to play in the opening round on Tuesday and scratched out a 67-64 win over Pitt. They then miraculously rallied from 21 down in the 2nd half in yesterday's win over Va Tech.

The Irish will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days against a Duke team that received a double-bye and hasn't played since Saturday. The Blue Devils will cruise to an easy win and cover tonight. Take Duke! 

5* NCAAB Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona -

I like the value here with the Wildcats in Thursday's Pac-12 Tournament action against Colorado. I just think all the outside noise that has surrounded this program of late with head coach Sean Miller and a couple of their star players, has brought Arizona closer together as a team and have them poised for a great postseason run. This is without a doubt one of the most talented teams in the country. 

Colorado comes in off an impressive upset win over Arizona State yesterday, but the Sun Devils have struggled down the stretch. It was only the 5th win away from home all season for the Buffaloes and chances are they won't be able to duplicate that strong performance this afternoon. I think the Wildcats win here comfortably. 

Colorado is a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games off a win and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a win by 10 or more points. Wildcats on the other hand are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing their previous game as a home favorite and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference home win. Take Arizona! 

5* NCAAB ATS No-Brainer TOP PLAY on Clemson -

I like the value here with the Tigers laying a short number against the Eagles in Thursday quarterfinals action of the ACC Tournament. Not only is Clemson the better team, but the Tigers have a major edge here in rest. Boston College will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, while Clemson has yet to play after receiving a double-bye. 

I still think this Tigers team is being undervalued because of the fact that they lost Donte Grantham for the season, but they have played extremely well without him. Clemson should also be plenty motivated here after losing their regular-season finale at Syracuse, as they will want some momentum going into the NCAA Tournament. It's been a nice run for the Eagles, but it stops here. Take Clemson! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia -

I really like the value here with the Cavaliers covering what I think is a short number against the Cardinals. I know Louisville had Virginia on the ropes last Thursday (blew a 13-point lead 2nd half lead and 4-point edge with less than a second to play), but that was on their home floor. Keep in mind that the Cardinals came into that game not playing well and it's likely the Cavaliers didn't give them the respect they deserved. 

I don't see that being a problem this time around. Virginia will be extremely motivated here to play well, as they don't want to go into the NCAA Tournament off an early exit from the ACC Tournament. This is also a well-rested Virginia squad, who hasn't played since Saturday. Louisville on the other hand could be both emotionally and physically drained after a big win over FSU yesterday, as that was one they had to have for any shot at making the field of 68. 

The Cavaliers ended the regular-season with a win at home over Notre Dame, but did fail to cover the spread. Both are important to note, as they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games off a conference win and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 off a game in which they failed to cover the spread. Take Virginia! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Xavier -

I like the value here with the Musketeers covering this spread against the Red Storm on Thursday. Xavier simply isn't getting enough respect here. They went 15-3 in league play with two of those losses coming against Villanova. They swept the season series against St. John's and should have no problem taking them down again. 

Xavier has a history of playing well in games played on a neutral court, as they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games played at a neutral site. They are also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 tournament games. While St John's won and covered in the first round yesterday against Georgetown, they are still just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. 

Rest is also a key factor here, as Xavier had a first round bye and will be catching the Red Storm in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. I just don't think St. John's is capable of playing well enough on no rest to keep this one competitive. Take Xavier! 

5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on North Carolina -

I love the value here with the Tar Heels laying single-digits against the Orange on Wednesday. North Carolina is one of the best teams in the country and after losing their final two regular-season games are going to be extremely motivated here to play well in the ACC Tournament, so they have some kind of momentum going into the NCAA Tournament. 

As for Syracuse, they got a huge win yesterday in the opening round against Wake Forest. They still likely need to win here to get in, but I don't see it happening. The Orange simply don't have the offensive fire-power to keep this close and it's only going to be that much harder with tired legs  on rest. 

Syracuse is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games away from home after a win and are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team that averages 8 or more made 3-pointers a game. Take North Carolina! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on NC State - 

I like the value here with the Wolfpack laying a short number against the Eagles. NC State really closed out the season strong. They went 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. The lone hiccup coming in a game at Georgia Tech, where they simply didn't show up to play. I don't see any concern here with NC State showing up. 

The Wolfpack offensively are absolutely rolling right now. They are average 83 ppg over their last 5 and haven't scored fewer than 70 points in a game since the middle of January when they put up just 51 at Virginia. 

Another key here is the rest advantage for the Wolfpack, who received a first round bye, while the Eagles had to suit up yesterday and take on the Yellow Jackets. NC State is also a great tournament team and have gone 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games in the ACC Tournament. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of the Wolfpack. Neutral court favorites who are an explosive offensive team (76+ ppg) that have scored 75+ in 3 straight games are 83-41 (67%) ATS when facing a decent offensive team that averages 74-76 ppg. Take NC State! 

5* NCAAB Colonial GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern -

Analysis will be posted shortly

5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma  State +

The Cowboys already went into Lawrence and defeated the Jayhawks 84-79 as a huge 12-point dog. I see no reason why we shouldn't expected a similarly competitive game in the rematch and I think there's an excellent chance Oklahoma State wins this one outright.

Keep in mind there's plenty of incentive here for the Cowboys, not only playing against an elite team and Big 12 regular season champ, but it's also senior day. 

The other big factor here is the spot for Kansas. I don't know that revenge is really on the mind of the Jayhawks here. They are coming off two huge wins at Texas Tech and at home against Texas to lock up yet another Big 12 title.

This game really doesn't mean a whole lot and I think Kansas is going to come out a bit flat, as they start to look ahead to next week's Big 12 Tournament and NCAA Tournament. Take Oklahoma State!

5* NCAAB MAAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Rider -

I like the value here with the Broncs laying what I feel is a short number in the quarterfinals of the MAAC Tournament. Rider earned a share of the MAAC regular-season title with a 15-3 league record. That includes two wins over St. Peter's who finished up 9th in the MAAC with a mere 6-12 record. 

The Peacocks did give the Broncs a scare in each of the meetings this season, but it won't be easy keeping this one close. That's because St. Peter's is at a big disadvantage here playin on no rest after taking on Monmouth last night. A game that went right down to the wire, as the Peacocks escaped with a 60-58 win. I just don't see St. Peter's having enough left in the tank here and the Broncs aren't going to overlook them given how close the previous two games were. 

Last time out Rider played in a shootout, defeating Iona 110-101. That's worth noting, as the Broncs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 90 points. We also see that the Peacocks are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win. Take Rider! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Michigan State -

I'm recommending laying the points here with the Spartans in Friday's quarterfinal action of the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan State will face off against the Badgers in the first game of the day and I think they make easy work of them. Wisconsin has been playing well down the stretch and come in having covered 5 straight, but let's not get carried away. This is still a very mediocre team (15-17 overall) and even with yesterday's win over Maryland, they are still a mere 4-10 away from home this season. 

While the Badgers edged out the Terps on Thursday, they shot just 36% from the field. It doesn't figure to get any better on Friday. Wisconsin's offense shot 37% or worse in both meetings against the Spartans during the regular season. I look for Michigan State to turn the defensive intensity up another notch here in tournament play and should be able to provide more than enough offense to pull away and cover this double-digit spread. 

Note that while the Badgers covered at home recently against Michigan State, the Spartans had gone 10-3 ATS in the previous 13 meetings in the series. They also come in with a dominant 22-9 ATS record in their last 13 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan -

I love the value here with the Wolverines laying single-digits against the Hawkeyes this afternoon. Iowa was able to pull away late and defeat Illinois 96-87 in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday. I'm not reading into that performance at all. Michigan has a big time advantage here in rest with the Hawkeyes playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and let's not forget they swept the season series. They first won by 7 at Iowa and later won by 15 on their home floor. 

While Iowa was able to knock off the Fighting Illini, this Hawkeyes' team has had a miserable time just keeping games competitive on the road. Iowa's loss at Michigan was one 7 losses away from home in Big Ten play by double-digits. The only two exceptions being against Rutgers and Minnesota, who were the first two teams out of the tournament. 

Iowa's inability to defend should allow the Wolverines to pull away. Iowa is giving up staggering 82.3 ppg away from home, while the Wolverines are only allowing 68.6 ppg away from home and have a more than capable offense. Take Michigan! 

5* NCAAB PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado +

I absolutely love the value here with the Buffaloes catching points at home against the Bruins. Colorado is a prime bounce back spot after dropping 3 straight. The most recent being a crushing 9-point loss at home to USC. Not only will the Buffaloes come out swinging against one of the top teams in the Pac-12, but there's added incentive here to win on senior day. 

I also think this is a great spot to go against the Bruins. UCLA is a full 2-games back of Arizona for the regular-season Pac-12 title and would need to win out and have the Wildcats lose their final two at home to Stanford and Cal (Bears are a league-worst 2-14 in league play) just to earn a share of the title. They know that's not going to happen, which in turn makes this game less important and more likely that UCLA looks ahead to their big showdown on the road against rival USC to close out the regular-season.

Another key factor here is just how much better Colorado is at home than they are on the road. The Buffaloes have gone 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS on their home floor this season. UCLA is just 5-7 on the road. Colorado is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, while the Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Colorado! 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Yale -

I love the value here with the Bulldogs laying a short number on the road against the Big Red in Friday's Ivy League action. Yale comes in off an ugly loss at Harvard, but had won each of their previous 3 games and I like their chances of bouncing back in a big way here against Cornell. These two teams already played once this season and Yale won by 9 as a 6.5-point home favorite. 

Backing the Bulldogs on the road has been a money-maker, especially when they are laying points. Yale is 12-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a road favorite. The Bulldogs have also owned this series, as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings and have covered 6 straight on the road against the Big Red. Take Yale! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Loyola Marymount +

I really like the value here with the Lions catching points on the road against the Broncos. While Santa Clara comes in having won 3 straight, each of the last two came on the road. The Broncos simply don't have a great home court edge and are just 6-10 SU and 4-10 ATS at home this season.

I know Loyola Marymount is just 2-12 away from home, but they have gone 6-5 ATS on the road and Santa Clara is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. The Broncos are also 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games off an upset win over a conference opponent and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Take Loyola Marymount! 

5* NCAAB Colonial (CAA) GAME OF THE YEAR on Hofstra -

I love the value here with the Pride at basically a pick'em against the Dukes on Thursday. Hofstra has been rolling and hasn't got the respect they deserve. That's evident by this low number here and the fact that they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. 

Last time out the Pride rolled 88-76 at home over Drexel and are 8-1 in their last 9 road games after a combined score of 155 or more in 2 straight games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more points. Hofstra is also 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5, while the Dukes are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road. 

Adding to all of this is a great system going against the Dukes covering this number. Underdogs off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more are a mere 9-27 ATS (25%) ATS in their next game if facing a team that just scored 80 or more points in a conference win. Take Hofstra! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Fullerton +

I love the value here with the Titans as a short road favorite against the Highlanders in Wednesday's Big West action. CS-Fullerton is simply the superior team and there's just not a big enough home court edge for UC-Riverside to keep this within the number. The Titans are 15-9 overall and 8-4 in league play, while the Highlanders are just 7-19 overall and a mere 2-10 in conference play. 

The fact that Riverside only lost be 3 on the road to Fullerton in the previous matchup this season isn't a big concern for me. The Titans should have won that game going away, as they shot 54% from the field, while holding the Highlanders to just 34% shooting. They also had a +11 edge in rebounding. The big difference in the game was Riverside made 10 3-pointers on 46% shooting. That's unlikely to repeat itself. The Highlanders are shooting just 29.7% from 3-point range at home this season. 

Riverside is a mere 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference home games and 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons in home games played in February. Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take CS-Fullerton! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on William & Mary +

I like the value here with the Tribe catching a decent number here on the road against Northeastern. William & Mary have been an excellent team to back on the road, as they are 9-3 ATS away from home.

The Huskies on the other hand are a team that has been overvalued basically the entire month of February, as they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6, which includes an outright loss at home to Charleston as a 4-point favorite. 

The Tribe are also a team you want to look to back off a loss, as they have gone 14-5 in their last 19 off a conference loss. They also are great at getting revenge, as they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take William & Mary! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary +

I love the value here with the Tribe catching points on the road agains the Pride. William & Mary has been a road covering machine this season, as the Tribe are 9-2 ATS away from home. They have also enjoyed the role of the underdog going 8-2 ATS in the 10 games this season when getting points. 

On the flip side of this Hofstra has been a great team to fade at home, as they are a mere 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. Last time out they lost by 20 as a 3-point road favorite at UNC-Wilmington. That's important to note as they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing their previous game as a favorite and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 off a game where they didn't cover. Simply put, the Pride are getting way too much respect at home here. Take William & Mary. 

5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside +

I'm recommending a play on the Highlanders as a short road dog against the Matadors in Wednesday's Big West action. UC Riverside is going to be out for revenge from an earlier loss at home to Northridge and I believe there's reason they get it. The Highlanders couldn't have shot much worse in that first meeting, as they connected on just 32.1% from the field. Riverside is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their lsat 6 when revenging a loss as a home favorite. 

I look for a much better showing here against a Matadors defense that comes in having allowed each of their last 2 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Note that Northridge ranks 8th out of 9 teams in the Big West in defensive efficiency. 

I also think this is a good spot to fade the Matadors off a ridiculous shooting game against Hawaii, where they shot 65.1% from the field in an outright win as a 12.5-point dog. Northridge is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off a game where they shot 55% or better. They are also a mere 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games when they come in having lost 4 of 5. Take UC Riverside! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern +

I love the value here with the Huskies catching points against the Tigers in Saturday's Colonial Athletic showdown. Northeastern comes in having won 2 straight and are 6-2 in their last 8 overall, while Towson has failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games. Playing on the road hasn't been a problem for the Huskies, who are 4-1 in their last 5 away from home in CAA action with the only loss a mere 1-point defeat at Drexel. 

One of the big keys to this game will be the edge Northeastern has on the defensive side of the ball. The Huskies have held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 70 points, while Towson has allowed 70+ in 6 straight games, including a whopping 92 points in their last game against the Dragons. The Tigers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 90+ points. Take Northeastern! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Columbia +

I love the value here with the Lions catching points on the road against the Bulldogs. Columbia held on for a 77-74 win at home over Dartmouth, which was a good win coming off that big victory at home over Harvard. The Lions are now 3 -1 in their last 4 with the only loss being a 1-point loss at Cornell. 

Yale on the other hand has dropped each of their last 2 games and are just 1-4 SU in their last 5. The most recent being a 50-59 loss at Penn, which is important to note as the Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after playing their last game on the road and 0-6 ATS this season off a road loss. Yale is also a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, while Columbia is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games vs a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system favoring a play on the Lions. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a home win as a favorite where they didn't cover the spread are 27-7 (79%) ATS when playing on Friday over the last 5 seasons. Take Columbia!