Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NO BRAINER on Villanova +1½ -105

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5* NO BRAINER on Marquette +4½ -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Montana -1 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on SE Missouri State +5½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Illinois-Chicago +2 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Davidson +8½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Georgia -19 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cal-Irvine +13½ -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Auburn -7½ -103

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Austin Peay -4½ -112

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Rhode Island +8 -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on Xavier -4½ -110

Easy play here on the Musketeers as a small favorite against DePaul in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. Xavier won both meetings between the two teams in the regular season. They won the first meeting on the road by 8 and then by 9 at home. Both times the Musketeers defense made it tough on the Blue Demons to score. 

I see no reason to expect a different outcome, especially given how bad DePaul has been in the Big East Tournament under head coach Dave Leitao. Blue Demons have made 4 appearances under Leitao and have lost all 4, going just 1-3 ATS in those games. DePaul is also just 4-15 ATS last 19 as a neutral court dog of 6 or less. 

Another key factor here is motivation. Xavier absolutely has to have this game and likely at least one more to have a legit shot at an at-large bid (currently projected as one of the first four teams out). Musketeers could also catch a big break, as DePaul's top player Paul Reed has missed the last 3 and is listed as questionable. Take Xavier! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night NO-BRAINER Top Play on St. Peter's -2 -115

Easy play here on the Peacocks as a slim 2-point favorite against the Gaels in Wednesday's quarterfinal matchup out of the MAAC Tournament. St. Peter's has a big edge in rest in this one. Peacocks haven't played since beating Iona in the regular-season finale last Friday. The Gaels on the other hand had to open up MAAC Tournament play yesterday against Canisius. 

While Iona won and covered against Canisius as a 4.5-point favorite, the Gaels are just 1-5 ATS last 6 as a neutral site underdog. As for St. Peter's, they are headed into postseason play on a roll. Peacocks went 11-2 over their last 13 games. 

St. Peter's is 16-5 ATS last 21 off a SU win and have covered 6 straight games on a neutral floor. Peacocks were tops in the MAAC in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. They allowed just 62.4 ppg on 39.9% shooting in conference play. Iona has not fared well agaisnt strong defensive teams, going just 2-8 ATS this season vs teams who held opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take St. Peter's! 

5* NCAAB - Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on NC State -4½ -110

Easy play here on the Wolfpack as a small favorite in Wednesday's action out of the ACC Tournament. NC State got a first round bye and will have a big rest advantage here over Pitt, who had to play yesterday against Wake Forest. 

Panthers were able to knock off the Demon Deacons 81-72 in a high-scoring game and while they needed a late 2nd half run to pull away. Pitt just doesn't have the depth to play well on no rest. Panthers basically only play 7 guys and 4 of those logged 35+ minutes on Tuesday. Makings matters even worse is the fact that NC State likes to run, as they finished 3rd in the ACC in tempo. 

Pitt ranked just 10th in the ACC in defensive efficiency and were 14th in effective field goal defense. The only thing that really saved them is turnovers, but that's negated here by a NC State team that had the 5th best turnover rate in the conference. I not only think the Wolfpack cover the small spread, I like them to win here in a blowout. Take NC State! 

5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne +2 -103

Easy play here on the Mastodons at basically a pick'em against North Dakota in the semifinals of the Summit Conference Tournament. IUPU Ft. Wayne followed up their strong showing on the road in the regular-season finale (lost by 6 at Oral Roberts as a 10.5-point dog) with a 77-74 win over South Dakota State on Saturday as a 7-point dog. 

The Mastodons are now a strong 4-1 ATS last her last 5 games as a dog. They are also 28-13 ATS last 41 off an outright win as a dog. The Fighting Hawks also won as a dog in their first game of the Summit Tournament, but they are just 1-5 STS last 6 off a SU win. 

Big factor here that favors IUPU Ft Wayne is that North Dakota does not force a lot of turnovers. Fighting Hawks rank just 337th in the country in defensive turnover rate. That's huge for a Mastodons offense that doesn't have a traditional true point guard. Take Ft Wayne! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Toledo -8½ -110

The Rockets are definitely worth a look to cover the spread at home against Western Michigan. Toledo finished with a mere 8-10 record in MAC play, but that's a bit misleading in terms of how the Rockets are playing. Toledo has won 5 of their last 7 games, which includes a 9-point road win over Western Michigan. 

While the Rockets are surging to the finish line, Western Michigan went just 2-6 over their final 8 games. Broncos ended the year with an ugly 68-85 loss to rival Central Michigan, who came into that game on a 9-game losing streak. 

Rockets went 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games and the favorite has covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Broncos are 0-4 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Take Toledo! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF -7½ -110

Easy play here on UCF at home against the Pirates, as the Knights should have no problem winning by double-digits in this one. East Carolina is a mere 3-11 over tehir last 14 games and just got annihilated on their home floor 84-63 by UConn. 

UCF won the first meeting between these two by just 4 at ECU, but that game felt a lot more lopsided. Knights shot 48% to the Pirates 41% and were even on the boards, free throws and turnovers. Seeing how ECU is just 2-11 on the road and giving up 75 ppg away from home, this one figures to get ugly in a hurry. 

Pirates are 2-10 ATS over the last 3 seasons in toad games against a marginal winning team that has won between 51% to 60% of their games and are losing in this spot by an 15.5 ppg. Take UCF! 

5* NCAAB - Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3 -115

I absolutely love the Trojans laying a slim 3-points at home against rival UCLA. The Bruins have caught fire in the second half of the season and come into this game having won 7 straight, but I think it has them getting way to much respect in this one. 

USC enters off back-to-back impressive home wins over Arizona (57-48) and Arizona State (71-61). That's now 4 straight home wins for the Trojans, who are 13-2 on their home floor this season. The defense has been outstanding during their last 4 at home, as they held all 4 teams to 61 or fewer. 

Let's also not forget that USC went on the road and beat UCLA by 11 earlier this season. I get the Bruins are playing better now, but they could do next to nothing offensively in that game, shooting just 38% from the field and 3-13 from deep. 

UCLA is just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road after 2 or more wins in a row. The home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 in the series. Take USC! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Weber State -4 -110

I love the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Vandals. The books have really struggled to price Idaho here of late. The Vandals are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. It's gotten worse down the stretch, as they have lost and failed to cover each of their last 5 games, losing all 5 by double-digits. 

Not only does the current form favor Weber State, but this is a great matchup for the Wildcats. Idaho struggles to score inside and Weber State defends the 2-point shot well. If the outside shot isn't falling the Vandals are in big trouble, because the Wildcats are going to score. Weber State shoots 51% on 2-point shots, third best in the Big Sky, and that's an area the Vandals struggle to defend. 

Weber State has failed to cover their last two games, but that's almost more of a positive than a negative. Wildcats are 23-9-2 ATS last 34 off a failed cover and 8-1 ATS last 9 after 2 straight games where they didn't cover. Take Weber State! 

5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -2 -110

I absolutely love the value here with the Billikens as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Patriots. St. Louis has saved their best basketball of the season for the stretch run and this is simply too good a price to pass up. 

Billikens have won 3 straight and are off a dominating 72-62 win at Rhode Island as a 6-point dog. St. Louis never trailed and hit 53% from the field. Marking their 5th straight game where they have shot 50% or better from the field. Hard to see the Billikens slowing down in this one. George Mason is allowing A-10 opposing teams to shoot 47% from the field and just let Duquesne connect on 56% in their last game. 

Also the one thing that the Patriots offense does well is offensive rebound, but that will be negated here, as St Louis is No. 2 in the conference in defensive rebounding. 

Billikens have covered 10 of their last 13 road games vs a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. George Mason is 6-20 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 2-7 ATS last 9 as a home dog. Take St. Louis! 

5* NCAAB - Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas-Little Rock +3½ -110

I love the value here with Little Rock getting points on the road against the Panthers. The perception here is that the Trojans won't show up for this game because they just wrapped up the Sun Belt regular-season title and will be looking ahead to the conference tournament. 

While it's certainly not a do-or-die scenario for Little Rock, I don't think they are going to just not show up. Last thing they want to do is kill their momentum by losing this game. This is a team that's 100% locked in on making the NCAA Tournament. 

The other big thing here is that there's not a ton for Georgia State to play for either. The fact that this game doesn't mean anything to the Trojans takes away some of the motivation for the Panthers to play their best.

This is their finale game at home, which often can be big cause it's senior night. However, Georgia State is a young team. They only got one senior on the team that plays in Damon Wilson. He's a decent contributor (4th scoring option), but I don't think they are going to go all out for his final home game. 

Trojans are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Trojans are also 6-0 ATS this season when off a conference win by 10 or more (beat Lafayette 91-69 last time out). Take Arkansas-Little Rock! 

5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -3 -109

I really like the value here with Tempe laying such a short number at home against the Bulls. The Owls are going to be extremely motivated to take their home floor after a couple of really close calls on the road, losing by 4 last Sunday at ECU and then by 3 at Wichita State on Thursday. 

Prior to those two losses, Temple had won 3 straight league games, including a 93-89 win over UConn in their last home game. The fact that the Owls were a 3-point favorite at home to UConn, says a lot about the value here, laying the same number against a USF team that has lost 4 of 5. 

Bulls are off a win, but that was at home against ECU and it was a game that went to OT. Could be real tough for USF to bounce back on the road, especially with two monster home games against Cincinnati and SMU looming to close out the regular-season portion of their schedule. 

Owls are 50-29 (63%) ATS in their last 79 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take Temple! 

5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE YEAR on Drake +4½ -110

I love the value here with Drake as a home dog against in-state rival UNI. Given the Panthers are 13-4 and leading the MVC, while the Bulldogs are just 8-9, you might think this is a good price to back UNI. Not me. Drake may have a losing record in league play, but that's only because they can't win on the road. 

The Bulldogs are 14-1 on their home floor this season and this is one they have had their eyes on. The Knapp Center will be close to a sellout and I fully expect Drake to win this outright. They have already knocked off other top contenders in the MVC at home in Loyola, Bradley and Indiana State. 

They did lose the first meeting to UNI by 10 points, 73-83, but that was as misleading a final as you will see. Drake led most of that game and it was tied 68-68 with just over minutes to play before the Panthers closed on a 15-5 run. 

UNI is a mere 3-12 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 season, while the Bulldogs are 37-16-2 ATS last 55 at home, 20-8 ATS last 28 off a loss and 18-5 ATS last 23 as a home dog. Take Drake! 

5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville State +3 -110

I absolutely love the Gamecocks in this one. I look for Jacksonville State to go into the Gentry Center and lay it on Tennessee State. This is a prime spot to fade the Tigers. Tennessee State is struggling. They have lost two straight and four of five overall. 

They also are dealing with a serious injury. Big man Jy'lan Washington had to miss their last game against Morehead State and he's a massive loss for this team. The offense is drastically worse without him and the defense also regresses when he's not on the floor. His status is up in the air and even if he plays he's not likely going to be at 100%. 

Jacksonville State comes in off a 72-58 win and cover as a 9.5-point home favorite against Tenn-Martin. Gamecocks are 24-7 ATS last 31 road games when coming off a home win by 10 or more. Take Jacksonville State! 

5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +3½ -109

I love the value here with the Hokies as a home dog against in-state rival Virginia. These two did play at Virginia back in early January, which the Cavaliers won convincingly 65-39. You just can't overreact to that result. Last year Virginia won by 22 at home and then barely snuck out a 6-point win on the road. 

The Cavaliers have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall, but they aren't dominating the opposition. Out of those 7 wins, 6 have come by 7-points or less with 4 decided by 3 or fewer points. 

This is also not an ideal spot for Virginia. Hard for them to take the Hokies seriously given how lopsided the last meeting was, especially with a massive game against Duke on deck this Saturday. 

Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Home team is also a dominant 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take Virginia Tech! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on TCU +3½ -110

I love the value here with TCU as a small road dog against the Cyclones. Iowa State followed up a 20-point loss at Kansas last Monday with a 30-point loss at home to Texas Tech. Cyclones are now 1-3 SU and ATS since losing their best player and potential NBA lottery pick Tyrese Haliburton. 

In the 3 games they haven't covered they have failed to do so by an average of 16.0 ppg. There's definitely reason to believe it could get ugly for ISU, even at home. Haliburton had a triple double (22 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) in a loss at TCU earlier this season. 

TCU may only have a couple more wins in Big 12 play, but they have won 2 of their last 3, most recently knocking off a ranked West Virginia team at home in OT. Horned Frogs will be coming into this one with a lot of confidence. 

Cyclones are 1-6 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a winning record. Take TCU! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -5 -109

I love the value here with West Virginia laying a small number on the road against Texas. The Big 12 has 2 elite teams in Baylor and Kansas, two top tier squads in West Virginia and Texas Tech and then a bunch of mediocre to bad teams. I think the books have struggled to price teams like the Mountaineers high enough in road games. 

It's going to take a near perfect game for Texas to win this contest. They haven't beat one of the top 4 teams yet. They are 6-8 in league play with their wins coming against Kansas State, Oklahoma St, TCU and ISU. The Horned Frogs, who are 6-8, are the only one of those 4 with a Big 12 mark better than 4-10. 

Texas has lost at home to baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma in Big 12 play. I know they have won two straight, but I don't think playing at home will be enough. West Virginia is just too good. Longhorns are 5-15 ATS last 20 home games off a win and 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been off two or more wins. Take West Virginia! 

5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE WEEK on Temple -2½ -109

The Owls are definitely worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Pirates. Temple has been playing much better here of late. The Owls have won 4 of 6 and are fresh off a double-OT win at home against UConn. 

I just think we are getting some value with Temple because of their losing mark of 6-7 in the AAC. It's really not asking much for the Owls to win here by a few points. ECU has lost 3 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. They just played a brutal 3 game stretch in 8 days against Tulsa, Cincinnati and Memphis. 

These two already played once this season and the Owls won by 12 at home. Temple has covered 5 straight games vs a losing straight up record. The favorites has also covered 7 of the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Temple! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech +17 -110

I love the value here with Virginia Tech catching a massive number on the road against the Blue Devils. Hokies are coming off a 3OT game against Miami on Wednesday, but they will be able to recover enough in 3 days to give a max effort here against Duke. 

I'm sure most will be counting on the Blue Devils to bounce back with a big game after not leading for a single second in a 22-point loss at NC State. While I have little doubt that Duke will win this game outright, I don't see them pulling away. 

One thing that the Blue Devils love to do is get out and run off of turnovers. Those chances will be extremely limited in this one. Virginia Tech is 5th best in the country in offensive turnover rate. Duke is also just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been listed as a favorite. Take Virginia Tech! 

5* NCAAB - Horizon League PLAY OF THE MONTH on Oakland -3½ -109

I really like the value here with the Grizzlies laying a short number at home against Milwaukee. Oakland comes into this game ride a wave of momentum off back-to-back wins. The first time since early November that they strung two together two wins in a row. 

There strong play really goes back to late January, which was about the same time that transfer Rashad Williams started to get comfortable with his new team. Williams didn't make his debut until Jan. 16. After averaging just 12 ppg in his first 3 games, Williams has exploded for 25.3 ppg in his last 6. He's only played 9 games and made 39 shots from behind the 3-point line. That's second most on the team, just 6 behind the leader. 

I just don't think people realize how different a team Oakland is. They just look at their overall numbers and see a mediocre team that is 7-9 in a small conference like the Horizon. I just think with how they are playing and Milwaukee off a crushing 4-point loss at home to rival Green Bay, this price is way to low on the Grizzlies. Take Oakland! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida -6 -110

I got no problem laying the points with Florida at home against the Razorbacks. The Gators are rolling right now. They have won 4 of their last 5 and are off two dominating performances in a 78-61 road win at Texas A&M and 84-66 win at home over Vanderbilt. Florida is very quietly sitting at 8-4 in the SEC (only 2 games out of 1st). 

While the Gators are surging, Arkansas is on a free fall with 4 straight losses. You really have to wonder about the psyche of this Razorbacks team, as two of the 4 losses came in OT and the other was a 1-point loss at home to Mississippi State. 

I just think it's going to be hard to right the ship on the road for Arkansas. Razorbacks are really feeling the injury to guard Isaiah Joe, as they are not a deep team. PLaying on the road with just 2 days rest is a lot harder for this team than it is for others. 

Arkansas is also just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road after 2 or more consecutive conference losses and 2-9 ATS last 11 after allowing 75+ points in 2 straight games. Favorite has also covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Florida! 

5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. John's +2 -109

I really like the value here with the Red Storm as a home dog against the Musketeers. St John's just won at home Wednesday against Providence 80-69 as a 5.5-point dog. The Red Storm will carry over that momentum into this one. 

Xavier on the other hand just had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 61-66 loss at Butler on Wednesday. This team has had trouble bouncing from a loss, as they have multiple losing streaks in Big East play. 

St John's is also going to be plenty motivated to get revenge from a mere 8-point loss at Xavier back in early January. Forcing turnovers is a big part of the Red Storm path to success and that's a weakness of the Musketeers. Xavier turned it over 19 times in the first meeting and that was at home. Those mistakes could be compounded here on the road and if St. John's gets that momentum early they should win here no problem. 

Xavier is just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS laying points in their last 6 as a road favorite. Red Storm are 6-2 ATS last 8 as a home dog. Take St. John's! 

5* NCAAB - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -4½ -110

Easy play here on the Gophers as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has had their struggles on the road this season. Hawkeyes are 8-6 in Big Ten play and all 6 of those losses have come on the road. Iowa's only road win came against league worst Northwestern. 

Don't be fooled by Iowa having already beat Minnesota 72-52 at home. At the same time, Minnesota is also a much different team at home compared to on the road. Gophers are 10-3 at home compared to 2-8 on the road. 

The big key here besides the home/away splits is the health of Iowa. Hawkeyes are unlikely to have standout freshman guard CJ Fredrick, who rolled his ankle in their 77-89 loss at Indiana on Thursday. 

Note that while Iowa is playing on a mere 2 days of rest here, Minnesota has been off since last Saturday. That extra time to prepare should only add to the edge here for the Gophers. Take Minnesota! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +1 -110

I love the value here with the Bulldogs at basically a pick'em at Texas A&M. These two teams played a couple weeks ago at Georgia and the Bulldogs won convincingly 63-48.

Aggies had no answer for Georgia small ball up-tempo attack and really struggled to slow down star freshman Anthony Edwards. I see no reason why we shouldn't expect those same struggles in the rematch. 

The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight since that win over Texas A&M, but that's almost a positive given they are 9-2 ATS last 2 years when coming off 3 or more straight conference losses. Aggies are also 0-7 ATS as a favorite, 0-6 ATS at home after playing a game as a home dog and 2-9 ATS last 11 at home when revening a loss. Take Georgia! 

5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE MONTH on St Bonaventure -3 -104

I absolutely love the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number at home against the Wildcats. St Bonaventure comes into this game on a roll. Last time out they avoided the dreaded trap game, making easy work of St. Joes on the road after that big upset win at Duquesne. 

You factor in how well the team is playing and the energy and excitement around this game, the atmosphere in the Reilly Center should be a big advantage for them. They don't get many prime time games on ESPN2 in their home gym. 

On top of that, Davidson has shown no ability to play up their potential on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have really been underachievers all season. They are 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS when they are tasked with playing a game away from home. They are also a great fade when the books are giving them points. Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog. Take St. Bonaventure! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Washington +4 -114

Easy play here on the Huskies. Most will look to stay clear of Washington, as they come into this game having lost 6 straight. Not me. Huskies are so close to getting this thing on track and I think they might have found something in the 2nd half against Washington State with their two point guard look. 

USC is also not playing great right now. Trojans are reeling off 3 straight losses and fresh off a heartbreaking loss at ASU. I just think USC is in a bad place right now and are going to have a hard time putting the Huskies away. Keep in mind Washington absolutely owned the first meeting, beating the Trojans 72-40 back in early January. 

USC has covered their last 2 and 7 of 9 overall, but that's a positive here. Trojans are 2-11 ATS last 13 at home after 2 or more straight covers and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home after covering 4/5 of their last 6. USC is also a mere 2-6 ATS last 8 games as a favorite. Take Washington! 

5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Colorado -4 -103

I love the value here with Northern Colorado laying a short number on the road against Northern Arizona. The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge from a 6-point home loss to the Lumberjacks and are getting them at the right time. Lumberjacks have lost 2 of 3 and the lone win was in OT against Big Sky bottom feeder Idaho State. 

One of the biggest strengths of Northern Arizona is their 3-point shooting. The Lumberjacks average 8 made 3-pointers and are shooting 38% on the season. They rank 2nd in Big Sky in 3-point shooting and yet are 7th in 2-point shooting. 

Northern Colorado is elite in terms of defending the 3-pointer. The Bears are No. 1 in the Big Sky in 3-point pct. defense and 6th nationally. They are also 6th best in the country in percentage of shots they allow from 3-point range. 

Last time these two played the Bears offense just wasn't in sync. Northern Colorado comes in averaging 75.2 ppg in their last 5 and the Lumberjacks are giving up 73.2 ppg in their last 5. Bears did make 9 3-pointers in the loss, but shot 38 for a mere 23.7%. On the season they shoot 37% from 3 and Northern Arizona is giving up 35% in conference play. 

Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road after covering 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. Take Northern Colorado! 

5* NCAAB - SEC ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +13 -110

I absolutely love the value here with the Commodores as a big double-digit home dog against the Wildcats. Vanderbilt comes in with a 1-9 record in SEC play, which I think has them way undervalued, especially with how well they have been playing. 

Commodores have covered 4 straight and all 4 have come against some quality opponents. They lost by just 9 as a 21-point road dog at Kentucky, then lost by just 6 at home to Florida as a 11.5-point dog. They proceeded to then beat LSU 99-90 as a 11.5-point home dog and last time out lost by just 10 at Mississippi State as a 15.5-point dog. 

Even though it's a long-shot, I can guarantee you Vanderbilt is approaching this game with the confidence they not only keep it close, but win outright. For a Kentucky team that is sitting at 8-2 and fresh off a big road win at Tennessee, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them lay an egg here. 

Wildcats are just 2-9 ATS this season as a favorite of 10 or more and Commodores are 4-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 last 4 as a dog. Take Vanderbilt! 

5* NCAAB -  Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida State +8½ -115

Easy play here on the Seminoles as a near double-digit dog at Duke. I just think there's too much value with FSU in this spot. Blue Devils come into this game off an improbable 98-96 OT win on the road against rival North Carolina. Not only did the game go to OT, but Duke had to rally from double-digits down late in the 2nd half and eventually won the game on a last second shot. 

I know the Seminoles are not a team to overlook and I expect Duke to play hard, I just don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to pull away and win this thing by more than the number. In fact, if they struggle at all this is a game the Seminoles can win outright. 

FSU can light it up. Seminoles are shooting 46% from the field and 37% from deep on the season. Duke is just 3-15 ATS last 2 seasons when playing a team at least 15 games into the season that is hitting 45% or better from the field. Blue Devils are also 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Florida State! 

5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Evansville +12½ -107

I really like the value here with the Purple Aces as a huge road dog against the Braves. Evansville is a team the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with, as they are winless in MVC play at 0-11. That has left the books no choice but to inflate the number in their games and I just feel there's a ton of value here. 

While the losses keep mounting, the Purple Aces have been on the verge of that first conference win. They just took Southern Illinois to OT at home in their last game, lost by just 12 at home to UNI in their previous game and only lost by 11 at Illinois St and by 2 at Valpo in their two before that. 

Bradley has lost 4 of their last 6 and are off back-to-back double-digit losses at Loyola and Drake. I just think they are going to have a hard time here giving an Evansville team they beat by 20 on the road their full attention. Purple Aces' ability to defend the 3-pointer (29th nationally) is also huge, as the Braves are 313th in 2-point shooting. Take Evansville! 

5* NCAAB - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse -8 -110

Easy play here on the Orange at home against the Demon Deacons. Syracuse should have zero problem beating Wake Forest by double-digits Saturday. Lot to like with the Orange in this one, as they have had a full week off to get their minds right following a tough home loss to Duke last Saturday. Huge motivational spot for Syracuse to put their 2-game losing streak to rest. 

As for the Demon Deacons, this is not an ideal spot for them playing on the road for a second straight game after a grueling loss at home to Louisville on Wednesday. I just don't think 2 days is enough for Wake Forest to get their minds right for this game and they have had their troubles keeping games respectable on the road (3 of their last 4 on the road have resulted in losses by 10 or more). 

Demon Deacons are also just 2-7 overall, which is worth noting, as they are a mere 14-33 ATS last 47 on the road when they come in having lost 6/7 of their last 8. They are also just 3-13 ATS last 16 road games off a conference loss. Favorite has also covered 5 straight in the series. Take Syracuse! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iona +6 

I love the value here with the Gaels as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. It hasn't been the easiest of seasons for Iona, as they try to make it work under interim head coach Tra Arnold, but this is just too good a price to pass up. 

Quinnipiac is setting 3rd in the MAAC at 6-4, but they are just 2-4 in league play after starting out 4-0. Most recently losing by 16 on the road at Niagara, who is ranked just slightly higher than the Gaels. 

Bobcats have been a good fade at home off a road loss. They are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home off a conference road loss and a mere 1-11 ATS in their last 12 at home off a road loss by 10 or points. 

Quinnipiac has also not had much luck against teams that make a living from the 3-point line. Bobcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Take Iona! 

5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wichita State -4 -110

I love the value here with the Shockers as a small home favorite against the Bearcats. I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with Wichita State at home given how motivated the Shockers are going to be off a close 3-point loss at Tulsa. Not to mention Wichita State is 13-1 on their home floor this season. 

Cincinnati has won 4 straight, but 3 of those 4 were at home and the other was at a bad Temple team. We saw these same Bearcats lost by 11 at Memphis on the road. I also think this is a really tough spot for Cincinnati coming off that emotional 64-62 win at home over Houston, where they rallied from 15 down to get the win. 

Bearcats are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 3-13 ATS last 16 as a road dog. Shockers are 7-3 ATS last 10 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Wichita State! 

5* NCAAB - Big Sky PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northern Arizona -1 -110

I love the value here with the Lumberjacks at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Eagles. I get Eastern Washington is sitting on top the Big Sky right now, but Northern Arizona is rolling right now. Lumberjacks have won 5 straight and are a strong 7-2 at home this season. 

Speaking of playing at home, this will be the 4th straight home game for the Lumberjacks, which is huge this time of year. As for the Eagles, they just played at Sacramento State on Saturday and will be back on the road with just 1 day of rest. 

Another thing here is Eastern Washington has not defended the 3-point line very well and this Northern Arizona team can light you up from deep. They are averaging 9 made 3's on their home floor and are shooting 39% from behind the 3-point line at home. 

Lumberjacks are also 8-1 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Northern Arizona! 

5* NCAAB - MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami-OH +4½ -109

I love the value here with the Redhawks as a small road dog against the Huskies. Miami (OH) had their game on Tuesday postponed, which means they haven't been in action since last Saturday. That should work out as a big positive for the Redhawks in this one, especially with Northern Illinois playing on just 3 days of rest. 

Huskies are also a team that has had a real hard time playing up to their potential against lesser opponents. Northern Illinois is a mere 1-6 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a losing record. They have also failed to cover 5 of their last 6 as a favorite. 

Adding even more value here is how the dog has owned this series, cashing a winning ticket in 17 of the last 21 meetings between these two teams. Take Miami (OH)! 

5* NCAAB - Colonial Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on College of Charleston -5½ -110

Love the value here with the Cougars laying what I think is a really small number on the road against a bad James Madison team. I believe the value with Charleston stems from their recent run that's saw them go 1-3 in their last 4 and fail to cover 5 straight. 

Two of those losses were by 3-points or less and they should have no problem bouncing back with a convincing win against the Dukes. James Madison is just 1-8 in league play. They have lost 6 straight and are 0-5-1 ATS in this stretch. Each of their last 4 setbacks have come by at least 7 points. 

Going on the road after playing their last few at home has been a huge buy on spot for Charleston, as the Cougars are 5-0 ATS last 5 on the road after playing 3 straight at home. Dukes are 7-19 ATS last 26 as a dog and have failed to cover 7 straight games vs a team with a winning record. Take Charleston! 

5* NCAAB A-10 PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Duquesne +9 -110

Love the value here with the Dukes as a near double-digit home dog against the Flyers. Dayton comes in at 7-0 in A-10 play and have won 9 straight overall and it simply has the Flyers laying way to big a number on the road against a Duquesne team that is not only capable of covering but winning this game outright. 

The Dukes come in having lost their last two, both on the road. The first was understandable at Rhode Island, but losing at UMass really looks bad. You just have to factor in the spot. Playing on just two days of rest in back-to-back road games in a major lookahead spot with this game on deck. Duquesne is a perfect 8-0 at home this season and have gone 4-1-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Duquesne! 

5* NCAAB ACC ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH on Clemson +11 -110

I love the value here with the Tigers catching double-digits against Louisville. The Cardinals come in having won 5 straight and that's definitely playing into this inflated number. What gets overlooked in their winning streak, is that 4 of the 5 wins have come by 6 or fewer points, including a mere 4-point win at home last time out against Georgia Tech as a 13-point favorite. 

Clemson failed to cover in a 71-68 win at home against Wake Forest in their last game, but the Tigers had covered each of their previous 4 games, including a 79-72 home win over Duke as a 10.5-point dog. 

Tigers are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as an underdog and have covered 4 of their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-3-1 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Not to mention the underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series. Take Clemson! 

5* NCAAB - C-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +4 -109

I love the value here with the Owls as a road dog against the 49ers. I'm confident FAU will not only cover, but win this game outright. Charlotte is simply overvalued right now. The 49ers come in at 4-2 in C-USA play, but all 4 wins have come against teams who are 3-3 or worse in league play. Their only game so far against a team in the top half of the standings was a game at WKU and they got annihilated by a score of 80-63. 

FAU is definitely going to be up for this game after losing one they shouldn't have at home against UAB on Saturday. Owls have not lost back-to-back games since dropping two in a row in early November to Miami and Alabama. They also have a nice scheduling edge, playing on 4 days of rest, while Charlotte is on just 2 days of rest and just played two in a row on the road. 

Owls are 13-6 ATS last 19 off a loss, 5-1 ATS last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 2 seasons as a road dog of 6 points or less. Take FAU! 

5* NCAAB - Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +5½ -109

I love the value here with the Hoyas as a decently priced road dog against the Musketeers. Most will simply back the Musketeers here assuming they are due to breakout of their recent slump, which has seem them lose 3 straight and 4 of 5 since opening the season 11-2. 

I just don't think Xavier is playing well enough right now to be laying this kind of number against a quality Georgetown team. One that has performed extremely well on the road under head coach Patrick Ewing, going 16-10 (62%) ATS. 

Last time out Georgetown was done in by a crazy good night from Marquette's star guard Markus Howard, who scored 42 of the their 84 points. Hoyas did more than enough offensively in that game, scoring 80 on 50.8% shooting. 

Georgetown really had no answer for Howard and the pick and roll action Marquette was using. It should be a lot easier defensively in this one. Xavier barely runs any pick and roll and likes to work it inside, which plays right into the strength of the Hoyas defense. 

Playing at home has also not been a positive for the Musketeers, who are just 1-8 ATS last 9 games at the Cintas Center. Take Georgetown! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -8 -115

I love the value here with the Mountaineers laying single-digits at home against the Longhorns, as I got West Virginia winning here by 10+ rather easily. Great spot to jump on the Mountaineers off a loss at K-State over the weekend.

In their previous two games off a loss this season they have covered with ease the next time out, beating Austin Peay by 31 as a 15-point favorite and Oklahoma State by 13 on the road as a Pick'em. 

Not only is the spot great, but so is the matchup. Bob Huggins' teams are always good at offensive rebounding and this year's team is elite in that department, ranking 3rd in the country. Texas is 287th in allowing offensive boards. 

Another thing to keep in mind is you a Texas team that isn't very deep playing on the road on just 1 day of rest after laying it all on the line against Kansas at home on Saturday, a game they lost after leading by 5 at the half.  

Longhorns are also 0-5 ATS last 5 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Mountaineers are 7-0 ATS last 7 off a loss, 4-0 ATS last 4 as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take West Virginia! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rutgers -5½ -110

Love the value here with the Scarlet Knights laying what I feel is a short number at home given just how dominant they have been at home, as well as Big Ten teams in general. Rutgers is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, which includes a 3-0 mark in conference play, having beat Wisconsin by 7, Penn State by 11 and Indiana by 9. They also have a 20-point home win over a really good Seton Hall team. 

Big 10 teams as a whole are now 41-7 (85.4%) SU on the season, which is by far the best home winning percentage of any conference. Minnesota definitely fits the mold. The Gophers are 10-2 at home this season compared to 1-5 on the road. Minnesota is 4-0  at home in Big Ten play with wins over Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan and Penn State. They are 0-3 on the road with a 20-point loss at Iowa, 5-point loss at Purdue and a 16-point loss at Michigan State. 

Rutgers defense should be the key factor here. Scarlet Knights are No. 1 in Big 10 play in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. Gophers offense is averaging 57.3 ppg in regulation in Big Ten road games compared to 77.8 ppg at home in conference action. Take Rutgers! 

5* NCAAB - Mountain West PLAY OF THE MONTH on UNLV -4½ -110

I absolutely love the value here with the Rebels as a small home favorite against the Lobos. New Mexico comes in at 15-4, which is quite a bit better record than UNLV, who is just 10-9. Thing is the Rebels have really turned a corner of late. They 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and have started out 5-1 in MWC play. 

New Mexico is 4-2 in league play, but have really played a soft conference schedule to this point. They also just got blitzed 105-72 at Colorado State a few days ago. UNLV is simply playing the better basketball of the two in conference play. Rebels have the No. 3 best offense in the MWC from an efficiency standpoint and New Mexico is No. 5. On defense UNLV is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 2 in effective field goal defense. Lobos are No. 8 and No. 10 in those two departments. 

Another thing is the Lobos are an easy fade under Paul Weir when playing on the road. They are just 8-21 (28%) ATS under Weir away from home, including a 4-13 ATS mark the last two seasons. Rebels are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and have covered 7 of their last 10 at home when laying points. Take UNLV. 

5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Kentucky +20½ -110

I absolutely love the value here with the Colonels as a massive road dog against the Bruins. I get there's a big difference in the overall record of these two teams, but simply put Eastern Kentucky has been a different team in conference play. The Colonels are sitting at 3-1 and have really got things figured out on offense of late. They are averaging 75.0 ppg in league play. 

Belmont has won 3 straight after opening up conference play with a loss at home to SIU Edwardsville as a 23-point favorite. They do have a couple of blowout wins by 20+ points against E Illinois and SE Missouri State, but those two teams are also a combined 0-8 in league play. 

Eastern Kentucky is one of the better defensive teams in the conference, like to slow things down and limit possessions and are great at taking care of the basketball. All things that should help them easily keep this within the number. Take Eastern Kentucky! 

5* NCAAB - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +10½ -110

I love the value here with the Cyclones as a double-digit road dog against the Bears. Baylor is getting praise everywhere the look and after back-to-back road wins last week at Texas Tech and Kansas, they are now the No. 2 ranked team in the country. 

No question the Bears are legit, but this just feels like the perfect spot to sell high, as they are just a few days removed from that impressive upset win at Kansas. Note they also had a big game against rival Texas before defeating the Red Raiders, so it was really a 3-game stretch where they laid it all on the line. 

Iowa State is off an impressive 81-68 win over Oklahoma that was much more lopsided than the final score would indicate. Cyclones are clearly a step below the top tier teams in the conference, but are far from a pushover. Their 8-7 record is also a bit misleading given the difficult schedule they have faced. 

ISU has also been a solid bet in this spot, covering 5 of their last 6 as a road dog. As for the Bears, they are just 4-9-1 ATS last 14 as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Iowa State! 

5* NCAAB - MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Northern Illinois +3 -109

I love the value here with Northern Illinois as a home dog against the Zips. Akron comes in with an impressive 13-3 record, are riding a 4-game win streak and sitting at 3-0 in MAC play. Most won't hesitate laying the short number here with the Zips, but I think they lose outright to the Huskies. 

Northern Illinois is a 1-point loss at Central Michigan away from being 3-0 themselves in MAC action. Zips are just 2-5 ATS last 7 times they have been listed as a road favorite and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. 

Huskies also just seem to play their best against the best, especially later on in the season. In fact, they are 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games 15+ games into the season when facing a team that's outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Take Northern Illinois! 

5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion +3½ -110

I love the value here with the Monarchas as a small road dog against the 49ers. Both of these teams like to play slow and really grind it out defensively. Thing is Old Dominion has thrived against these kind of opponents, going a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a strong defensive team that is allowing 64 or fewer points/game. 

This is also a great spot to fade Charlotte. The 49ers have won 5 of 6 and are off a win over Middle Tennessee where they had a huge lead at the half. Charlotte is 8-20 ATS last 28 at home after winning 4 of their last 5 and are 8-28 ATS last 36 after a game where they led by 15 or more at the half. 

The Monarchs have also owned this series. They have swept the two-game season series each of the last 2 years and 3 of the 4 wins have come by double-digits. No way should they be a dog here. Take Old Dominion! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iowa +1½ -103

I love the value here with Iowa as a home dog against the Terps. I just feel we are getting an exceptional price on the Hawkeyes due to the fact that they come in off an upset loss at Nebraska. A poor game against the Cornhuskers was to be expected off a devastating loss to Penn State just a few days earlier. 

Iowa is also not the same team on the road as they are at home, where they are 6-1 this season. This definitely feels like a must win for the Hawkeyes as they are sitting at 1-3 in Big Ten play. Big thing to note is only one of their first 4 conference games have come at home and that was a 72-52 blowout win over a good Minnesota team. 

Maryland 10-0 at home, but just 3-2 on the road and just 1-2 in true road games. Terps have also failed to cover all 3 of their true road games. Maryland is also in a massive letdown spot off a huge home win over then No. 11 Ohio State, which they won 67-55.

Terps are just 1-8 ATS last 9 road games off a home win by 10 or more. Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS last 5 off a loss and 5-0 ATS last 5 at home. Take Iowa! 

5* NCAAB - West Coast GAME OF THE MONTH on BYU +4 -110

I love the value here with BYU as a small road dog against the Gaels. While the Cougars have had all kinds of problems in recent trips to St. Mary's, this is the best BYU team in years. The Cougars come in having won 6 straight with the most recent being a 25-point beatdown at home against Loyola-Marymount. 

While BYU was coasting in their last game, St Mary's found themselves in an exhausting 4 overtime game at Pacific, which they wound up losing 99-107. Four different players played 37 or more minutes, with both Ford and Kuhse hitting the 50-point mark. Ford, teams leading scorer, logging 58 out of possible 60 minutes of game time.

I just don't think 4 days will be enough for them to come out with the kind of energy needed against a really good Cougars team. Take BYU! 

5* NCAAB - Weeknight PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +16 -109

I love the value here with the Commodores catching a huge number on the road against the Tigers. No question Auburn is the better team, but they are simply way overvalued right now due to their perfect 13-0 record. 

It's not always easy getting up for a conference game against a bottom feeder like Vandy and I think that will be the case here, as the Tigers are off a huge road win against Mississippi State in their SEC opener and have a big home game on deck against Georgia. 

Vandy doesn't get a ton of love with a mere 8-5 record, but note that all 5 of their losses have come against teams ranked in the Top 110 of the country and all 5 have come by 9 or fewer. That includes two overtime losses to Richmond and SMU. 

Tigers are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite with the only cover coming against Lipscomb, who is ranked 225th. Take Vanderbilt! 

5* NCAAB - Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Nebraska +8 -110

I love the value here with the Cornhuskers as a near double-digit home dog against the Hawkeyes. This might seem like a fair price given how good Iowa has looked early on and the fact that Nebraska just got smoked by 17 at home as a 4.5-point dog to Rutgers, but this is all about the spot. 

These two schools don't really like each other and I'm confident we get a max effort here from the Cornhuskers at home. As for Iowa, they could be in for a bit of a letdown in this one. Hawkeyes let a late lead slip away in an emotional and heated 86-89 loss to Penn State on Saturday.

Starting guard CJ Fredrick went down with an ankle injury in the 1st half and wasn't able to return and while listed as questionable probably doesn't play. That makes an already weak bench that much weaker and let's not forget they are playing on just 2 days rest and in their first true road game since going to ISU back on Dec. 12th. 

Hawks are just 6-18 ATS last 24 on the road and Nebraska has faired well at home against high-scoring teams like Iowa, going 19-9 ATS in their last 28 at home vs a team that averages 77 or more points/game. Take Nebraska! 

5* NCAAB - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +9½ -108

Love the value here with the Wildcats as a near double-digit dog against the Gophers. I just think we are getting a great price on Northwestern because of the fact that they come in having lost 3 straight. However, they just as easily could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 5 or less points. 

Minnesota is a good team, but should not be laying this big a number inside Big Ten play. Gophers have already lost twice at home to Oklahoma and DePaul, two teams I think are pretty similar in terms of talent to the Wildcats. 

Minnesota also has a history of playing down to their competition, as they are just 8-21 ATS last 29 vs a team with a losing record. Road team has also covered 7 of the last 9 meetings in the series. Take Northwestern! 

5* NCAAB - C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion -3 -109

I love the value here with the Monarchs as a small home favorite against the Blazers. Don't be fooled by Old Dominion's 5-9 record, as they have played a really tough non-conference schedule. It also has them undervalued and we have seen that of late with them going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. 

Most recently they won and covered in a 70-60 win at home over Middle Tennessee. UAB has lost 3 straight true road games. Most recently falling 44-51 at Charlotte in their last game. To only score 44 points against the 49ers tells you a lot about the struggles of this Blazers offense and this another tough matchup for them.

Not only does ODU make it tough on teams to score inside they dominate the glass. Simply playing good defense won't be enough for UAB in this one. Monarchs are 6-0 ATS last 6 times they have played a team like the Blazers that are giving up 64 or fewer points/game. Blazers are also 1-6-1 ATS last 8 times they have matched up with a team with a losing record. Take Old Dominion!

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple -3 -110

I love the value here with the Owls as a small road favorite against the Golden Hurricane. Temple will be riding a wave of momentum after closing out their 56-49 win on the road against UCF on a 12-2 run. Their defense held the Knights scoreless for the last 3.5 minutes. 

That win really speaks volumes to what this Owls team is capable of. Temple nearly won by double-digits despite shooting a mere 37.7% from the field and turning it over 17 times. I look for them to not only shoot the ball better, but take better care of it against a struggling Tulsa team that has lost 3 straight. 

Golden Hurricane are just 4-13 ATS last 17 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. Owls on the other hand are 7-2 ATS last 9 overall and 11-4-1 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Note that while Tulsa is 7-2 at home, they are just 4-5 ATS in those games. Take Temple! 

5* NCAAB - Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on Troy State +4 -110

Absolutely love the value here with the Trojans as a road dog against ULM. While both teams come in with similarly poor records, Troy is 4-2 over their last 6 and working on a 5-1 ATS run.

Warhawks have lost 5 straight and their 4 wins this season have come against the likes of Louisiana College, Alcorn State, Northwestern St and Millsaps College. Two of those games didn't have a line and the other two they were double-digit favorites. 

No way should ULM be favored here. Warhawks are a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 home games and 0-5 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Trojans are also 7-3 ATS last 10 games when listed as a dog. Take Troy! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on New Mexico -10 -110

I love the Lobos winning by double-digits and covering the spread on the road against the Spartans. This is a complete mismatch in terms of talent. New Mexico is 13-2 and come into this one having won 8 straight. San Jose State is a mere 4-10 and are 1-8 in their last 9 games. 

Spartans really don't do anything well. They are shooting a worthless 39.3% from the field on offense and are allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the field. New Mexico is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 against teams that are shooting 42% or worse and allowing 45% or better. 

San Jose State did cover in a home win over Pepperdine in their last game, but that's a positive here, as the Spartans are 0-6 ATS last 6 home games off a cover and 1-10 ATS last 11 overall off a cover in general. Take New Mexico! 

5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -2 -109

I'll lay the short number with the Owls on the road against UCF. I just think the matchup here heavily favors Temple. The Owls are so good at forcing teams to beat them from outside the paint, as they just don't give up easy baskets inside. That's a big problem for the Knights, who just don't have a lot of shooting. UCF comes in shooting a mere 30.6% from deep. 

Another thing is the Knights rely a lot on getting second chance points by attacking the offensive glass and defensive rebounding is a big strength and priority for the Owls. Temple's defense has also only gotten better with the recent insertion of Jake Forrester into the starting lineup. 

Owls are also a great team to back away from home. Temple is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 on the road against a team with a winning road record. Knights are just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Temple! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play  on Illinois-Chicago -3½ -110

I love the value here with the Flames laying a short number at home against the Penguins. UIC has won each of their last two games and are in a great buy low spot, as they just recently got back one of their top scorers in Marcus Ottey. He's played in just the last 4 games and scored double-figures in all 4. 

It's also worth noting that while the Flames are just 6-8 overall, they have had 3 losses by 4 or fewer points. Youngstown State is getting some love after covering 4 straight, but this is not an ideal spot for the Penguins are who will be forced to play their second road game in a mere 3 days. 

Youngstown State is just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 on the road and are losing be close to 10 ppg on average away from home this season. Take Illinois-Chicago! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Northern Arizona +7½ -110

I love the value here with Northern Arizona as a near double-digit dog at Montana. The Lumberjacks come into this game at 6-3 and have covered 4 straight, while the Grizzlies are a mere 4-7 and 3-6 in their last 9. 

Montana is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Grizzlies come in scoring just 64.8 ppg and are shooting just 425 from the field and 29% from long distance. 

Northern Arizona averages 75.6 ppg and one thing I love about the Lumberjacks is how they get to the free throw line. They are one of the best in the country at doing so and Montana is one of the worst at sending opponents to the charity line. Grizzlies opponents are averaging 15 made free throws a game against them. 

Lumberjacks are 5-1 ATS last 6 times they have been listed as a road dog. Also underdogs with a winning record who have beaten the spread by 30 or more points in their last 3 games and playing a team with a losing record are 23-7 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northern Arizona! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on New Mexico State +5½ -110

I absolutely love the value here with the Aggies as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Mississippi State comes in at 8-2, but a big reason for that is the schedule. The Bulldogs best win is a neutral site victory against Kansas State. They just struggled to put away Radford in their last game and recently lost at home to Louisiana Tech. 

New Mexico State has gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, but are off a win and cover against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Aggies debuted UTEP transfer Evan Gilyard in that game and A.J. Harris, who has been out all year could be back for this one. 

Also, I like the matchup here. Aggies are really good at forcing their opponents into making mistakes. They are averaging 15 forced turnovers a game and Mississippi State ranks 327th in turnover rate. New Mexico State is also a great offensive rebounding team (32nd nationally) and Bulldogs rank a mere 232nd in defensive rebound rate. 

Mississippi State is also just 3-12 ATS last 15 times they come into a game having won 2 of their last 3. Take New Mexico State! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova +2 -109

I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a home dog against Kansas. The Jayhawks might be the No. 1 team in the country, but it's been a bit of a revolving door at the top of the college basketball landscape. I just think it has Kansas getting a little to much love here at No. 18 Villanova. 

The Wildcats only two losses have come against the likes of Ohio State and Baylor and both of those were on the road. Villanova is 4-0 at home, where they are scoring 84.5 ppg and giving up just 62.2 ppg. This is also the first real test for KU in a true road game and I think it can be a bit of a challenge to go this deep in the season having not played in a real hostile environment. 

Jayhawks are a mere 2-10 ATS last 2 seasons in road games and the Wildcats are 33-17 ATS last 3 seasons when playing a top tier team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Take Villanova! 

5* NCAAB - Small Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Portland State +5½ -111

Easy play here on the Vikings getting points against the Lions. I actually think Portland State is going to win this game outright, so this is really a no-brainer at this price. Loyola-Marymount has failed to cover their last two, including a mere 3-point win in their last home game against Prairie View A&M as a similarly priced 6-point favorite. 

The Lions just aren't a team to be trusted to lay points. They don't play great defense and struggle to take care of the basketball. That could haunt them here against Portland State, which has had some success turning over the opposition. Vikings also are also a great offensive rebounding team and those second chances should pay off in this matchup. 

Vikings are 15-6 ATS last 21 non-conference road games, while the Lions are a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Portland State! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on College of Charleston +6 -109

I love the value here with the Cougars as a decently priced home dog against the Rams. VCU is the household name in this matchup and I think it has them laying a few to many in this one. Note the books have really been inflating the number on the Rams of late. VCU has failed to cover five straight and are just 2-8 ATS on the season. They are also 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road. 

Charleston is off to a very respectable 5-5 start. A .500 record might not seem great, but they have played the likes of Oklahoma State, Marshall, UCF (twice), Wake Forest, Providence and Richmond. Most of those games they were very competitive. 

Last year the Cougars went on the road and beat VCU 83-79 as a 5.5-point dog and what I like is they got the guards to handle this Rams pressure with 3 really good ball handlers in Galloway, Jasper and Riller. 

Another thing here is the Rams have not shot the ball well in 2019 and are still missing one of their better outside shooters in Malik Crowfield. Not to mention the Cougars are holding opponents to 40% from the field at home. Take Charleston! 

5* NCAAB - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Francisco +6½ -109

Love the value here with the Dons as a decently priced dog against the Cardinal. Stanford has been one of the big surprises early, as they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. However, both the betting public and the books have figured out just how good the Cardinal are and we are seeing them a little overpriced here against a good San Francisco team. 

Dons are 9-2 to start the year and one of those losses is by a mere 4-points to Arizona State. That's not their only good showing against a Pac-12 foe, as they beat Cal at home by 12 earlier this month. Dons are 17-6 ATS last 23 on the road after 2 straight covers as a favorite. 

Also a great system in play to fade the Cardinal. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 off a road win by 20 or more are just 17-45 (27%) ATS since 1997 in games involving 2 teams that have won 80% or more of their games. Take San Francisco! 

5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Western Illinois +2½ -110

I love the value here with Western Illinois as a small home dog against rival Eastern Illinois. Books have been consistently undervaluing the Leathernecks here of late, as they come in having covered 4 straight. 

Eastern Illinois may have the better record, but they have played the much easier schedule. The Panthers also lack size, as they got a 6'5 guy playing center. The offense also doesn't produce at near the same level on the road. Eastern Illinois is averaging 78.3 ppg on the season, but just 68.3 ppg away from home. 

That lack of offense on the road figures to really hurt them here, as Western Illinois comes in averaging 80.9 ppg on the season and 90.0 ppg at home, where they are shooting a healthy 48% from the field and 44% from long distance. 

Leathernecks are a strong 9-4-1 ATS last 14 as a home dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Panthers are 3-7 ATS last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been listed as a road favorite. Take Western Illinois! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Samford +7½ -110

I absolutely love the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog at Hawaii on Sunday. I know the competition hasn't been the best, but it's worth noting that Samford has scored 97 and 113 points in their last two games. In their last game they beat Houston Baptist by 23 as a mere 4.5-point favorite and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. 

Hawaii is 6-3, but those 6 wins are against the likes of Pacific, Portland State, Florida A&M, New Orleans, San Francisco and Hawaii Pacific. Even with that soft schedule their largest margin of victory all season is by 13-points. 

Rainbow Warriors are not a team to back as a favorite, as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when laying points. They are also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Bulldogs are also a healthy 31-12-1 ATS last 44 non-conference games. Take Samford! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga +3½ -110

I love the value here with the Bulldogs getting points at Arizona. While the Wildcats are greatly improved over last year and these two come into this game with identical 10-1 records, I feel Gonzaga is by far the better team. 

Arizona comes in off a blowout 99-49 win and cover against Nebraska-Omaha, but prior to that had failed to cover 4 straight. Wildcats are also going to be down one of their better players in Stone Gettings. 

Another key thing here is the matchup on the boards. Arizona's head coach Sean Miller flat out said his teams biggest weakness was their defensive rebounding. That's a big time problem against a Gonzaga team that is great at generating second chances by hitting the offensive glass. I just don't think the Wildcats will be able to go score-for-score with the juggernaut that is the Bulldogs offense. Take Gonzaga! 

5* NCAAB - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State +3 -110

Love the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Golden Hurricane, as my numbers say Boise State should be favored here. Tulsa comes in at 7-2, but it's a fraudulent mark, as they have played the 353rd ranked strength of schedule.

We saw some of how overvalued the Golden Hurricane are in their last game, as they lost outright at home as a 13-point favorite to Arkansas State. Boise State on the other hand has been way undervalued of late. Broncos are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. 

I just don't see Tulsa being able to keep pace offensively. Tulsa is only averaging 70.9 ppg and that's against opponents that on average give up 75.7 ppg. Boise State is scoring 81.0 ppg and that's against opponents that are giving up just 71.0 ppg. Take Boise State! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nevada +8½ -110

I really like the value here with the Wolf Pack as a near double-digit dog against the Cougars. Steve Alford is doing a tremendous job in his first year with Nevada, despite having to put together a make-shift roster after all 5 starters and 7 of the top 8 rotation players departed. 

Wolf Pack come in having won 5 straight. All five wins have come by double-digits as a single-digit favorite, so they are far exceeding the books value on them right now. Nevada definitely has the offensive fire-power to hand with BYU, as the Wolf Pack come in averaging 79.6 ppg. What's crazy is they score even more on the road, as they are scoring 81.2 ppg and shooting 49.1% from the field away from home. 

BYU has not been a good bet in games that are expected to be shootouts, as they are just 4-13 ATS last 17 games with a total of 150 to 159.5. Cougars are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Nevada! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on North Dakota +7½ -110

The Fighting Hawks are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Grizzlies. While both teams have an identical 3-5 record, North Dakota has played the tougher schedule, especially when you consider they have played just one game on their home floor all season. 

While neither team is lighting it up offensively, Montana has really struggled on that side of the ball, scoring just 63.2 ppg, and are scoring 5.7 ppg under what their opponents have allowed. North Dakota is at 69.0 ppg, despite all those road games.

I also like the matchup for the Fighting Hawks, as they run their offense thru big man Filip Rebraca, who is averaging 15.3 ppg and 9.2 rpg, while shooting 63% from the field. I just don't think Montana has the guys inside to keep Rebraca from having a big game here.

Fighting Hawks are 6-0 ATS last 6 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and are 8-2 ATS last 10 as a dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take North Dakota! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Illinois +5 -110

I love the value here with the Panthers as a road dog against the Mastodons. These two played last year at Eastern Illinois and IUPU-Ft Wayne embarrassed the Panthers 104-60 as a mere 3.5-point favorite. All 5 starters are back for Eastern Illinois and you can bet they have had this one circled since the schedule was released. 

The Mastodons only return 2 starters from last year's team and had to replace their dynamic scoring duo of John Konchar (19.5 ppg) and Kason Harrell (15.2 ppg). IUPU comes in having won 3 straight, but it's come against some soft competition. I think we got a real taste for the talent level on this team when they lost by 39 at Ohio State. 

Eastern Illinois is just 4-3, but two of those losses were on the road against Power 5 opponents in Texas Tech and Wisconsin. The other came on no rest in a tournament. Speaking of rest, the Panthers haven't played since Nov. 24, while the Mastodons just played on Saturday. Take Eastern Illinois! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Vanderbilt -2½ -110

I love the value here with the Commodores as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Vandy made a lot of buzz when they hired former NBA star Jerry Stackhouse to be their new head coach, but no one is expecting much of this team in year one. 

I get it, but I think those low expectations have the Commodores undervalued here against a team they should be able to handle. Buffalo was a great story last year winning 32 games and making it to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, but they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama and lost 5 seniors off that team. 

Bulls have started out a respectable 5-2, but a big part of that is the schedule. I think a 63-68 home loss to Dartmouth speaks to how much less talented this team is compared to the previous two years. This is also Buffalo's first true road game of the season and that's always a difficult spot. Commodores are going to be motivated off that ugly loss to Tulsa at home last time out and are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs a team from the MAC. Take Vanderbilt! 

5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Furman -3½ -109

A lot of people will be wondering why Furman, a team out of the Southern Conference is laying points on the road against a Bulls team that won 24-games last year and is expected to compete for a AAC title. I believe it's for good reason. 

The Paladins are off to a strong 7-1 start to the season with their only setback being a 8-point loss against a good Alabama team. There's a lot to like with Furman in this matchup. While the Paladins turned it over 17 times last time out against Arlington, that was an outlier for this team. They only had 30 turnovers in their last 3 games combined. 

USF is a team that really relies on forcing turnovers, so that's not a good sign for them. Bulls are also awful at taking care of the ball. They have turned it over 15 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. USF has also not been great at defending the rim and this Paladins team ranks 13th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage. 

Paladins are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games as favorite, while USF is a mere 4-14 ATS last 18 at home off a loss. Take Furman! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -9 -110

I love the value here with West Virginia laying single digits at home against the Rams. No surprise that Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers back on track after a disappointing 2018-19 campaign. West Virginia is 6-0 and there's no question this year's team is light years better than last years. 

Rhode Island is off to a strong 5-2 start, but have a couple of ugly losses on the resume. They fell by 18 at Maryland and by 13 to LSU on a neutral site. West Virginia is a very difficult place to play and I just don't see the Ram being able to keep this close.

Rhode Island is just 2-9 ATS last 11 non-conference games and have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 3 of 4. Take West Virginia! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Davidson +3½ -109

I love the value here with Davidson as a small dog against Marquette, as I think the Wildcats win this game outright. I know Davidson is just 2-3, but the schedule hasn't been easy. Marquette has a special player in Markus Howard, but I just like the overall talent with this Golden Eagles team. 

While this will be on a neutral site, Marquette did not fair well in their only other game away from home this season, losing by 16 as a mere 2-point dog to Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles let the Badgers connect on 11 3-pointers in that loss and Davidson is a team that can light it up from deep. Wildcats come in shooting 39% from deep and are averaging 10 made 3-pointers a game. 

Marquette is just 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Davidson! 

5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. Louis +3 -109

Love the value here with St Louis getting points against the Eagles. This will be the Billikens first road game of the season after 6 straight at home, but I'm not concerned. St Louis is 5-1 with their only loss against currently No. 13 ranked Seton Hall. 

These two have played 3 common opponents. Billikens are 3-0 and outscored those 3 teams by 13.2 ppg. BC is 2-1 and only outscoring those teams by 5 ppg. Eagles come in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time out shot just 36% from the field against DePaul. 

Look for junior big man Hasahn French to have his way in this one. French is one of the best players in the American and should dominate inside not only scoring but on the boards. BC doesn't have a ton of size and rank near the bottom in the country in both offensive and defensive rebound rates. 

Eagles are just 1-9 ATS last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home after 2 straight non-conference games. Take St Louis! 

5* NCAAB - Early Bird PLAY OF THE MONTH on Murray State -8 -110

Love the value here with the Racers laying single-digits against the Wildcats. Both teams lost their opening round game yesterday in the Gulf Coast Showcase. Weber State had no business being a 7.5-point favorite yesterday against Wright State and it showed, as they got blown out of the gym, losing 72-57. 

The Wildcats are now just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming against West Coast Baptist. In their other two games they lost 89-34 at Utah State as a 16.5-point dog and 71-56 as a 2-point home favorite against San Diego. 

I know Racers were upset yesterday by LaSalle, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Murray State is still 3-2 on the season with their only other loss being a true road game at Tennessee. Racers are 10-4 ATS last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Take Murray State! 

5* NCAAB - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +10½ -109

I love the value here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. USC has got off to a strong start with a 5-0 record in their first 5 games, but they won by 7 at home against Pepperdine last time out and also only beat Portland at home by 11. 

Owls have also not lost with a 3-0 record, but they are 0-3 ATS and I think we are getting value because of their poor showing against the number. It's not like they haven't been close to covering. They won by 8 as a 12-point favorite against Drexel, by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite against Morgant St and by 5 as a 6-point favorite at LaSalle. 

I think the Owls have a decent edge here being the fresher team having played 3 games to USC's 5 and the fact that they are playing this game on 5 days rest, while the Trojans are on just 2 days of rest. 

Owls are 40-23 ATS last 63 on the road off a no-cover where they won as a favorite. Take Temple! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UC-Davis +4 -104

Easy play here on UC Davis as a dog against Big Sky bottom feeder Sacramento State. The Aggies come in at just 2-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, but have also played 4 of 5 away from home. Sacramento State is 2-0, but their toughest opponent was UC-Riverside, who expected to be at or near the bottom of the Big West. 

UC Davis has been very profitable in this spot, going 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. The Hornets defense has looked great against a couple of weak opponents, but are just 2-10 ATS last 12 times they have faced a team like UC Davis that is shooting 48% or better from the field and have lost in this spot by almost 15 ppg. Take UC Davis! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee +3 -110

No way should the Blue Raiders be getting points here against the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has already dropped games at home to Campbell and Northern Kentucky. Middle Tennessee has started out 3-0, which includes a win at Lipscomb. 

I'm expecting big improvements out of the Blue Raiders in year two under head coach Nick McDevitt. He really turned UNC Asheville into a power and finished up 40-14 in his last 3 years. 

The Chanticleers most recent game was that home defeat to the Norsemen. Coastal Carolina is just 4-12 ATS last 16 off a home loss and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home overall. Blue Raiders have covered 5 of 7 against a team from the Sun Belt and are 9-3 ATS last 12 overall, including a 5-2 ATS mark in their last 7 on the road. Take Middle Tennessee! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Louisiana Tech +10 -105

This is just too many points for Louisiana Tech to be catching on the road against the Blue Jays. The Bulldogs have started out 2-0 with two blowout wins. They won at Texas A&M CC 82-49 as a mere 8-point favorite and followed that up with a 98-52 victory against Wiley College. Note that Texas A&M CC nearly went on the road an upset Vanderbilt, losing by a final score of 71-66. 

As for Creighton, they are coming off a 79-69 loss at Michigan, where they let the Wolverines shoot 57% from the field and now face a LA Tech team that has hit 50% from the field in each of their first two games. I just don't see the Blue Jays being able to pull away and winning by double-digit. In fact, I give the Bulldogs a legit shot at winning this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Alabama +1 -110

I love the Crimson Tide at basically a pick'em on the road against the Rams. Alabama bounced back in a big way from their heartbreaking 1-point loss to Penn in their opener with a dominating 78-59 win at home over FAU, easily covering as a 12.5-point favorite. 

Rhode Island failed to cover as a big favorite in their opener against Long Island and then were embarrassed on the road in a 73-55 loss as a 12-point dog to Maryland. Rams have not been able to get their offense going. They shot just 39% from the field against Long Island and then a mere 30% against the Terps. 

Rhode Island has a solid trio of Langevine, Russell and Dowtin. Tide have guys that can give those three fits. Alabama's suffocating man-to-man defense travels well and will be too much for this struggling Rams offense to overcome. Take Alabama! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -7½ -109

The Billikens should have no problem putting away the Eagles by double-digits Wednesday night. St Louis lost a lot from last year's squad that won 23 games and I think it has them undervalued to start out the season. The Billikens did get back do it all guard Jordan Goodwin and forward Hasahn French. 

St Louis opened with a 22-point win as a mere 7-point favorite against Florida Gulf Coast and followed that up with a 11-point win as a 9.5-point favorite against Valpo. Billikens are 30-13 ATS at home when they come in off 2 straight covers. 

Eastern Washington is just 2-10 ATS last 12 non-conference games and just 3-9 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take St Louis! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific +5½ -109

Easy play here for me with the Tigers as a decently priced road dog against the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii has been overvalued in each of their first two games, as they failed to cover as a 17.5-point favorite in a 65-52 win over Florida A&M and as a 1.5-point favorite in a 81-75 loss to South Dakota. 

Just so happens that Pacific has faced both of those teams and had pretty similar results. Tigers lost by 10-points at home to South Dakota and crushed Florida A&M 76-54. I not only think Pacific will cover, but I give them a great shot at winning outright. 

Warriors are a mere 5-16 ATS last 21 games vs a team from the West Coast Conference and have failed to cover 4 straight at home. Take Pacific! 

5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Florida State +6 -105

I really like the value we are getting with the Seminoles as a dog. I think we are getting a great price here on FSU coming off an upset loss on the road at Pitt in their opener. Winning on the road right out of the gate is never easy, especially against a conference opponent.

I also wasn't overly impressed with Florida in their 15 point win as a 22-point favorite at home against North Florida. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Seminoles won this game outright. 

Gators have been an awful bet at home, as they are 3-13 ATS last 16 at the Exactech Arena, including a 0-6 ATS mark in their last 6 at home with a total of 130 to 134.5. Take Florida State! 

5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Nebraska -7 -110

It was about as awful a start to the season as Nebraska fans could have hoped for when their team came out and got annihilated 66-47 by UC-Riverside as a 15.5-point home favorite. Not what they were expecting in the debut of Fred Hoiberg. 

However, I think that result has created some big time value here with the Cornhuskers, who are laying single digits against a Southern Utah team that picked to finish middle of the pack in the Big Sky. Even after the loss in the opener, Nebraska is 22-10 ATS last 32 at home. Cornhuskers are also 10-1 ATS last 11 at home if their last game was a non-conference game. Take Nebraska! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Purdue -19 -110

I got no problem laying the big number with Purdue at home against the likes of Green Bay. I think people are sleeping on the Boilermakers a little bit due to them losing Carson Edwards, but this is a team that has the good to contends with the likes of Michigan State and others for the Big Ten title.

They might not have the superstar on their roster like Edwards, but they are extremely deep and I just don't see the Phoenix being able to keep pace. History agrees, as the Boilermakers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. Take Purdue! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Mary's -3 -115

You might be wondering why Wisconsin is getting points against the Gaels. It's for good reason and I think St Mary's is going to make easy work of a Badgers team in transition. Wisconsin only loses two starters, but they lost one of the best players in the country in Ethan Happ. For a team that ranked 276th in scoring at 68.6 ppg, I think the offense is going to have a hard time keeping pace with better competition. 

The Gaels have all their key guys back from last year's NCAA Tournament team that won 22-games and beat Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament, despite many thinking it was going to be a down year for St Mary's. They also got some key guys back from injury and this is one they need for their resume come March. Take St. Mary's! 

5* NCAAB - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kansas +1 -109

Most are going to look at this and just blindly take Duke because of how much respect this program has with Coach K. Everyone knows the Blue Devils lost a lot from last year's team, but the assumption is that they just reload. I get it and that's definitely true to a point, but I got a hard time believing Duke has anywhere close to as talented a Top 3 as they had last year with Zion, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. 

Things didn't look good for KU early on in the offseason, but that didn't last long. Jayhawks got two guys back they thought were leaving early in Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson. THey also were not expecting Sivio De Sousa to win his appeal and  be eligible to play. I like the mix of youth and experience on this team and while Duke might have the better NBA talent, I think it's going to take time for the Blue Devils to reach their full potential with how young they are. Take Kansas! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Green Bay -

Love the value here with the Phoenix, as they should have no problem covering the small number against the Tigers. Wisconsin-GB has gone 14-3 on their home floor this season and are 8-1 ATS in last 9 home lined games. They just beat CS-Bakersfield by 15 as a 6-point favorite last time out and prior to that beat FIU by 30 as a 4-point favorite. 

Phoenix have gone 9-1 ATS last 10 home games when coming off a game as a home favorite and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, winning by an average of 17.4 ppg. Take Green Bay!