Sports Picks & Predictions

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-130)

The Atlanta Braves are trying to win the NL East Division.  They are coming off a loss as a -250 favorite to the Marlins yesterday and will be highly motivated to bounce back today.  I like their chances of winning this game by two runs or more due to their advantage on the mound.

Max Fried has been dominant down the stretch.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, two earned runs or fewer in seven of them and one earned run or fewer in five of them.  He has gone 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in those eight starts while allowing just 10 earned runs in 52 innings.

Edward Cabrera is 0-1 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in those starts, two of which came against the Mets and one against the Nationals.

The Braves are 24-7 in Fried's last 31 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher and winning by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Marlins are 3-15 in road games vs. left-handed starters this season and losing by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -113

The Milwaukee Brewers continue to play well as they are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall to improve to 88-55 on the season.  Cleveland is 2-7 in its last nine games overall to basically eliminate all hopes of them making the postseason.  The Indians will likely pack it in the rest the way.

The Brewers won 10-3 over the Indians in Game 1 and came back with a 3-0 combined no-hitter in Game 2.  Getting no-hit yesterday says all you need to know about the Indians right now.  And starter Aaron Civale will be making just his 2nd start in the last three months after missing a couple months with an injury, so he'll be limited.

Milwaukee starter Eric Lauer is underrated, going 5-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Lauer has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts.  He is 4-2 with a 1.46 ERA in his last 10 starts, allowing just 9 earned runs in 55 1/3 innings.

Milwaukee is 39-16 in its last 55 road games.  The Indians are 9-27 in their last 36 games as home underdogs.  The Brewers are 14-2 in their last 16 road games with a total of 8 to 8.5 and winning by 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Milwaukee is 10-1 in Sunday road games this season and winning by 3.1 runs per game.  The Brewers are 9-0 in road games coming off a shutout this season and winning by 3.6 runs per game.  Roll with the Brewers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

The Buffalo Bills are getting a lot of hype heading into this season after coming out of nowhere to make the AFC Championship Game last year.  They went 9-2 ATS over their final 11 games last year and put up gaudy offensive numbers.  So you're now paying a premium to back the Bills to start this season.

I did make a lot of money backing the Bills last year, and I am reasonably high on them.  Just not this high.  I like Josh Allen, but he's not going to have as big of a season as he did a year ago.  And it just seems like everyone is sleeping on the Pittsburgh Steelers after a 12-4 season that ended in a disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns after the game got out of hand due to turnovers in the playoffs.

The Steelers boast an elite defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year at 305.8 yards per game and 3rd in scoring at 19.5 points per game allowed.  That defense can carry them this season.  Big Ben is motivated at 39 years old for one final Super Bowl run, and when he has been healthy he has been very good.  He is also in great shape.  He has a bunch of underrated receivers and tight ends, and now the Steelers should have an improved running game with the moves they made along the offensive line while also drafting Alabama RB Najee Harris in the first round.

Buffalo could not run the ball last year unless it was Josh Allen doing it.  They will be one-dimensional and easier to stop because of it.  They had a middle-of-the-pack defense last year ranking 14th in total defense at 352.5 yards per game.  And this line should just be closer to Buffalo -3 when you factor in home-field advantage.  I have these teams power rated similarly, so give the Bills 3 points for home-field advantage and that's what the line should be.  So we are getting 3 to 3.5 points of value here.

The Steelers are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs, including 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs.  You would have to go back a few years to find the last time the Steelers were this big of an underdog with Big Ben as their starting quarterback.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +1

The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in Ron Rivera's first season.  They did so with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback for most of the season, and a hobbled Alex Smith for the majority of the rest of it.  That's because they had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season.

That will be the case again this season as Washington is loaded on defense, especially up front with arguably the best defensive line in the league.  They ranked 2nd in the NFL behind only the Rams in total defense last season, allowing 304.6 yards per game.

There's going to be drastic improvements on offense this season.  They brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was a money making machine with the Miami Dolphins last year and proved he still has it.  Studs Antonio Gibson (RB), Terry McLaurin (WR) and Logan Thomas (TE) are all back.  They added in WR's Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries to give Fitzpatrick more weapons.

The Chargers are getting a lot of hype because of the rookie year that Justin Herbert had.  He has some decent weapons, but he is working behind a revamped offensive line.  Herbert and the OLine will have to deal with crowd noise this season, which they didn't have last year.  And it will be a packed house in the nation's capital with fans rejuvenated for this team after they won the NFC East last year and their bright outlook.

I just like the chemistry for Washington to open the season with their staff and systems in place for a couple years now.  The Chargers are going into this season with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator.  It is going to take them some time to gel.  And I certainly worry about them at the point of attack on both sides of the ball, where Washington is going to have a big advantage here.

Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in the first month of the season, a non-playoff team from last season that won their final two games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Washington Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Bengals +3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals were very competitive before Joe Burrow went down with an injury last year.  His 264 completions were the most ever by an NFL QB through their first 10 career games.  His five 300-yard passing games tied a Bengals season-season record.  He became the first rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games.

Burrow has returned from his knee injury and actually got to play a drive in the preseason.  Reports coming out of camp are that his arm is stronger than it was before and he is fully recovers.  Burrow has a plethora of weapons now in WR's Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase to go along with RB Joe Mixon.  But the key is the upgrades on the offensive line, where the Bengals didn't allow a single sack in three preseason games.

Speaking of the preseason, the Vikings were terrible.  They went 0-3 and scored just 13.7 points per game on offense while giving up 24.3 points per game on defense.  You can't make a lot of of the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Vikings were previously great in the preseason under Mike Zimmer, so he clearly takes it seriously.

I'm just not a big Kirk Cousins guy, and until they move on from him I'm not going to trust their offense even though he has some decent weapons in Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.  The big concern is a Vikings defense that took a huge step back last year.  They ranked 27th in total defense at 393.3 yards per game and 29th in scoring defense at 29.7 points per game.  They can only be better with improved health, but I don't think they will be any better than Cincinnati defensively this season.

This line indicates that the Vikings would be favored by 6 or more on a neutral field, and I just don't see it.  These teams are much closer power rated in my book with a healthy Joe Burrow for Cincinnati.  So getting 3.5 points with the Bengals in front of a raucous home crowd in anticipation of the return of Burrow is a great value here.

The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  Cincinnati is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 September games.  The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Titans OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans will be two of the best offensive teams in the NFL this season.  The Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total offense last season at 396.4 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game.  The Cardinals ranked 6th in total offense at 384.6 yards per game last year.

There's reasons to believe both offenses will be just as good if not better this season.  The Titans traded for Julio Jones, and he and AJ Brown form one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in the NFL.  The Cardinals signed AJ Green to pair him with De'Andre Hopkins, giving the Cardinals an elite duo themselves.  It appears both Green and Jones have a lot left in the tank.

The Titans ranked 28th in total defense last year at 398.3 yards per game allowed while also giving up 27.4 points per game.  They did nothing to improve their defense in the offseason and will be terrible on that side of the ball once again.  The Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack defense and the addition of JJ Watt won't do much other than provide name value.

The OVER is 22-7-1 in Titans last 30 games overall.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 home games.  The OVER is 9-1 in Titans last 10 home games against NFC West opponents.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Falcons OVER 48

I like the outlook of both the Eagles and Falcons on offense this season.  But I expect these to be two of the worst defenses in the NFL once again this season.  Atlanta gave up 25.9 points per game and nearly 400 yards per game last season.  They ranked 29th in total defense.  Philadelphia gave up 26.1 points per game last season.

The Eagles did get a spark offensively late in the year when Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback, and that experience gained will help him a ton coming into this season.  He led the Eagles for 1,312 yards of offense in his final three starts last year, which was 2nd in the NFL to only the Bills during that stretch.  I like the talent on offense with RB Mile Sanders, young receivers DeVonta Smith and Jalen Raegor, and a pair of elite tight ends in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

Speaking of elite tight ends, the Falcons have a pair now themselves in top pick Kyle Pitts from Florida to go along with Hayden Hurst.  Calvin Ridley is one of the best young receivers in the NFL now too.  The addition of Pitts will help ease the loss of Julio Jones, who just wasn't used right in Atlanta, was always injured and almost never happy here.  So it's probably a good thing they moved on from him.

The Falcons should be improved offensively this season with head coach Arthur Smith running the show.  He comes from the Tennessee Titans, where he served as their offensive coordinator and helped lead the resurgence of QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry.  The Titans ranked 2nd in total offense and 4th in scoring offense last season.

Philadelphia signed an offensive mind in Nick Sirianni as their head coach.  He served as offensive coordinator under Frank Reich over the past three seasons.  Reich guided the Eagles to a Super Bowl under Doug Pederson.  So you have to like the OVER when both head coaches are offensive-minded.

The Eagles have a terrible secondary that the Falcons should be able to exploit, and there's just not much to like at all about this Falcons defense outside of maybe linebacker.  The conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Atlanta.  The OVER is 32-15 in Eagles last 47 road games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Utah/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -7

Kyle Whittingham is one of the best head coaches in the country.  He should have one of his best teams ever with 19 returning starters.  The Utes both the best offensive and defensive lines in the Pac-12, and teams that are strong at the point of attack are good 'bet on' teams.  And they bring QB Charlie Brewer from Baylor to run the offense.

Utah beat Weber State 40-17 as a 28.5-point favorite in the opener.  While that may not seem that impressive since they failed to cover, keep in mind Weber State is one of the best FCS teams in the country.  They were ranked as the 6th-best FCS team coming into the season.  The racked up 450 yards and held Weber State to 270 yards, outgaining them by 180 yards in the game.

Weber State would beat Arizona, which is who BYU played last week and barely snuck by.  The Cougars won that game 24-16 and failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites.  They managed just 368 yards and were actually outgained by 58 yards by Arizona.  That's a bad Arizona team that went 0-5 last season and is in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch.

After a huge 11-1 season last year, BYU was due for some regression with all that they lost.  They brought back just 11 starters this season, which among the fewest in the country.  Only four starters are back on defense, and they allowed 426 yards to the Wildcats last week.  They lost QB Zach Wilson as a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft after a 33-to-3 TD/INT ratio last year.  He is simply irreplaceable.  They also lost leading receiver Dax Milne (70 receptions, 1,188 yards, 8 TD last year).

Utah is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with BYU with five of the last eight wins coming by 7 points or more.  That includes a 30-12 in their most recent meeting at BYU in 2019.  The Utes play the big brother role very well in this rivalry and always bring their 'A' game when they meet the Cougars.  That 'A' game will be more than enough to win by more than a touchdown here tonight.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Michigan UNDER 48.5

Two teams with elite defenses and suspect offenses square off in this Pac-12 vs. Big Ten showdown when Washington travels to face Michigan Saturday night.  This has all the makings of a low-scoring game, especially with it expected to be windy in Ann Arbor Saturday night.

Washington just lost 13-7 to Montana last week as 22.5-point favorites.  Montana is a good team from the FCS, but it was still a bad loss nonetheless.  While the Huskies have an elite defense under defensive guru Jimmy Lake, their offense is a problem.  They managed just 291 total yards and committed three turnovers in the loss.  But they did hold Montana to 232 yards defensively.

Michigan put up a dominant 47-14 win over Western Michigan in the opener.  They took advantage of a bad Broncos defense, but holding their high-powered offense to just 14 points and 319 total yards was no small feat.  It's clear the Wolverines have made some big improvements on defense already this season under first-year coordinator Mike Macdonald, who comes over from the NFL's Ravens where he served under Jim's brother John Harbaugh.

Injuries at the skill positions for both teams will also help us cash this UNDER.  Michigan just lost leading receiver Ronnie Bell to a season-ending knee injury last week.  Bell led the team with 26 receptions for 401 yards last year and is a big-time talent.  Washington is missing four receivers, including three of its top four on the depth chart in Rome Odunze, Terrell Bynum and Ja'lynn Polk.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Huskies last 10 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Huskies last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Huskies last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Wolverines last five vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Mets OVER 8

I'm shocked this total is as low as it is today.  The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 9 MPH at Citi Field tonight.  That will help aid in cashing this OVER a day after the Mets beat the Yankees 10-3 for 13 combined runs.

The Mets should have another big day at the plate against Corey Kluber, who just recently returned from injury.  He missed three months of action and returned a couple weeks ago.  Kluber has posted an 8.21 ERA in his two starts since returning, allowing 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 16 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.

Taijuan Walker is 7-9 with a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Walker has really struggled of late as well, going 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.

Kluber is 28-11 OVER in his 39 career road starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 13, 15, 11, 16 and 15 runs in the five OVERS.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-112)

The Milwaukee Brewers continue to play well as they are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall to improve to 87-55 on the season.  Cleveland is 2-6 in its last eight games overall to basically eliminate all hopes of them making the postseason.  The Indians will likely pack it in the rest the way.

The Brewers won 10-3 over the Indians yesterday and there's reasons to believe they will win in a blowout again.  The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 16 MPH today at Progressive Field.  So we want the ground ball pitcher over the fly ball pitcher.

Well, Corbin Burnes is a ground ball pitcher who is having a fantastic season.  Burnes is 9-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 24 starts this season with only 5 homers allowed and 196 K's in 144 innings.  He is also 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Zach Plesac is 10-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 21 starts this season for the Indians, allowing 20 homers in 119 1/3 innings with only 85 K's.  

Milwaukee is 38-16 in its last 54 road games.  The Indians are 9-26 in their last 35 games as home underdogs.  The Brewers are 14-2 in their last 17 road games with a total of 8 to 8.5 and winning by 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UAB +24.5

Bill Clark is one of the best head coaches in the country.  UAB didn't have a football program in 2015 and 2016.  Clark took over and guided them to an 8-5 season in 2017, 11-3 in 2018, 9-5 in 2019 and 6-3 in 2020.  The Blazers have just four losses by more than 24 points in those four seasons.

I fully expect them to be competitive with Georgia Saturday.  The Blazers return 17 starters and are one of the best teams in Conference USA.  They waxed Jacksonville State on September 1st 31-0 in their opener, gaining 518 yards and limiting them to 152 yards, outgaining them by 366 yards.  Now they've had nine days in between games to get ready for Georgia.

This is an awful spot for Georgia.  The Bulldogs are in a letdown spot off their huge win over Clemson last week.  They have their SEC opener against South Carolina on deck, so this is a sandwich spot.  And not to mention the Bulldogs are dealing with COVID issues right now and will be missing several key players due to that and injuries.  

They are really thin at receiver, and QB JT Daniels is battling an oblique injury.  The Bulldogs just want to get out of here with a win and aren't worried about getting margin.  This is UAB's Super Bowl.  Georgia is 29-53 ATS in its last 82 home games off an ATS win.  Take UAB Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern +7

Georgia Southern is a sleeper in the underrated Sun Belt Conference this season.  Chad Lunsford is in his 5th season here and has gone 10-3, 7-6 and 8-5 over the past three seasons.  Four of their five losses last year came by one score with the only exception being their 14-point loss to Coastal Carolina, which was the best team in the conference last year and nearly went unbeaten.

They lost at Louisiana by 2, at Army by 1, at Georgia State by 6 and to Appalachian State by 8.  Those were four very good teams last year that all made bowl games.  So their only losses last year came to bowl teams.  Now Lunsford has 16 returning starters with eight on both sides of the ball to work with in 2021.

I think the fact that Georgia Southern only won 30-25 as a 28.5-point favorite against Gardner Webb last week has them undervalued coming into this week.  They are a triple-option team built for close games.  They rushed for 365 yards on Gardner Webb and will certainly be able to run the ball on Florida Atlantic here to keep this game close, possibly pulling off the upset.

Willie Taggart has been a big disappointment, failing at Oregon and Florida State before coming here to Florida Atlantic last year.  He had to fill the big shoes left behind by Lane Kiffin and didn't do a very good job.  The Owls went just 5-4 last year with their only wins coming against Charloote, WKU, FIU, UMass and UTSA.

One of their losses last season came to Georgia Southern by a final of 20-3.  Georgia Southern rushed for 269 yards on them in the win.  And they should have similar success here, especially after Florida Atlantic just allowed 400 rushing yards on 46 carries in a 35-14 loss to Florida last week.  They are beat up from that physical loss, and they only get a week to prepare for the Eagles' triple-option this week.

Florida Atlantic is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less, including 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Eagles are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Owls are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on California +11.5

Justin Wilcox is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  He improved Cal from 5-7 in his first season to 7-6 in his second season and 8-5 in his third season.  Then Cal got a late start last season due to COVID and their first game was against UCLA, which was scheduled just three days prior to playing it.

Cal went on the road with a defensive line that wasn't able to practice with the team for two weeks and loss.  Then they lost by 4 to Oregon State and had a PAT blocked in a 1-point loss to Stanford.  After the 0-3 start, the Bears showed some heart with their upset win over Oregon in their finale.  The Ducks went on to win the Pac-12.

Cal has now had a normal spring and is off to a way better start than they were last season because of it.  Wilcox welcomes back 17 starters, and 28 of 33 players who made starts last season.  This will be one of the best defenses in the country, and the offense should be the best of the Wilcox era behind third-year starting QB Chase Garbers and nine returning starters on offense.

I think we're getting good value on Cal this week after getting upset by Nevada at home last week.  But Nevada is one of the best teams in the Mountain West with an NFL QB in Carson Strong, who led the Wolf Pack to a 22-17 victory.  The Bears holding that offense to 22 points is no small feat.  And because of their defense they just tend to play in close, low-scoring games.  I expect more of the same here against TCU.

The Horned Frogs made easy work of Duquesne 45-3 last week.  But they were 42-point favorites so they didn't even cover against one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  I think the fact that Cal play a legit opponent in the opener will have them more prepared for this game than TCU will be after playing Duquesne.

California is a sensational 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.  California is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog.  The Golden Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  The Horned Frogs are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites.  This is simply too many points.  Roll with California Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -2

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a team I'm high on in the Big Ten.  The Syracuse Orange are a team I'm way down on in the ACC.  So it makes sense that I'm on Rutgers here where they basically just have to win the game as 2-point favorites to cover.

It's a team that went 3-6 in Greg Schiano's first season last year but was competitive in every game.  Now they return 21 starters and I just think Schiano is one of the best coaches in the country.  The Scarlet Knights are off to a great start with their 61-14 beat down of Temple.

Clearly it was a misleading final as they won the turnover battle 5-0.  But they were dominant nonetheless and could be vanilla on offense not having to show much.  They held Temple to 8-of-27 passing in the win.

Syracuse did pick up a good win itself in a 29-9 victory at Ohio last week.  And I think the Orange are now getting some respect from oddsmakers after that upset victory.  But that win was also misleading as Syracuse only outgained Ohio by 39 yards.  That's a down Ohio team this season as well.

Syracuse went 1-10 last year and were outgained by nearly 200 yards per game, and I don't expect them to be much better this year.  So we're getting a middle of the pack team from the Big Ten up against a bottom feeder in the ACC, and I'll take the Big Ten in this matchup almost every time.

Syracuse is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as an underdog by 14 points or more.  Dino Babers is 0-6 ATS after allowing 9 points or less as the coach of Syracuse.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* WKU/Army CFB Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 51.5

Western Kentucky clearly wants to chuck it around the yard this season and score some points.  That was evident in their 59-21 win over Tennessee-Martin in the opener.  Houston Baptist transfer QB Bailey Zappe is the real deal.  He threw for over 10,000 yards and 78 touchdowns in his four years there.

Zappe went 28-of-35 for 424 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in the opener.  The Hilltoppers threw for 478 yards as a team.  And they should be able to move the ball through the air at will on this Army defense, which isn't used to preparing for these types of wide open passing attacks.

Conversely, Army should be able to run the ball at will on this soft WKU defense that allowed 201 rushing yards on 34 carries to Tennessee-Martin last week.  Army rushed for 258 yards in its 43-10 win over Georgia State in the opener.  The Black Knights are up against an inexperienced Hilltoppers defense that returned just four starters this season.

Western Kentucky is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards in its last game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hilltoppers last four games overall.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in Black Knights last 15 September games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* UTEP/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UTEP +26

The UTEP Miners finally have some stability as they have stuck with head coach Dana Dimel.  After going 1-11 in each of his first two seasons, Dimel guided the Miners to a 3-5 season last year.  They were competitive in every game outside their losses to Texas from the Big 12 and the best team in Conference USA in UTSA.

Now Dimel is in his fourth season and brings back 19 starters this season, including all 11 on offense.  And the Miners are off to an impressive 2-0 start.  They beat New Mexico 30-3 as 9.5-point road favorites, racking up 452 total yards and outgaining the Aggies by 262 yards.  Then they beat Bethune-Cookman 38-28 last week, racking up 473 total yards and outgaining them by 140 yards.

The win over New Mexico State looks even better now after the Aggies went into San Diego State last week and outgained a very good Aztecs team by 11 yards.  They gained 374 yards on a very good San Diego State defense after only managing 190 yards against UTEP.  So this is a big 'buy on' sign on the Miners.

Boise State failed to win the Mountain West last year.  Head coach Bryan Harsin bolted for Auburn.  That leaves Andy Avalos to try and pick up the pieces.  He was the defensive coordinator at Oregon the past two seasons.  And I just think this is a Boise State program that is finally on the decline under Avalos.

The 31-36 loss to UCF last week was extremely misleading.  Boise State only managed 283 yards against UCF and was outgained by 290 yards after giving up 573 total yards to the Knights.  The Broncos managed just 20 rushing yards on 26 attempts, and they gave up 255 rushing yards on 48 attempts.  

I think UTEP can run on this Boise State defense and shorten the game.  The Miners are averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry through two weeks.  QB Davin Hardison has played well, completing 64.1% of his passes for 432 yards with three touchdowns and only one interception while averaging 11 yards per attempt.  Hardison can make some plays if he has to.

The Miners are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  UTEP is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games off an ATS win.  Keep in mind this is a tough spot for Boise coming off that huge game against UCF and with Oklahoma State on deck next week, making this a sandwich spot.  Bet UTEP Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -135

The Milwaukee Brewers continue to play well as they are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall to improve to 86-55 on the season.  The Brewers are rested having yesterday off, while the Indians had to play yesterday against the Twins and are a tired team.  Cleveland is 2-5 in its last seven games overall to basically eliminate all hopes of them making the postseason.

The Brewers have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Adrian Houser, who is 7-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in 22 starts this season.   He is coming off a complete game shutout against the Cardinals last time out.

Eli Morgan is 2-6 with a 5.48 ERA in 14 starts this season for the Indians.  Morgan has been atrocious at home, going 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in eight home starts this season.

The Brewers are 6-1 in their last seven games following an off day.  Milwaukee is 37-16 in its last 53 road games.  The Indians are 9-25 in their last 34 games as home underdogs.  Take the Brewers Friday.

15* Yankees/Mets Interleague ANNIHILATOR on New York Yankees -117

I've successfully faded the New York Yankees with the Toronto Blue Jays as underdogs in four straight games.  They handed the Yankees their first four-game series sweep at home since 2003.  But I think this is where it's time to jump back on the Yankees against the struggling New York Mets.

The Yankees now lead the Blue Jays by just 0.5 games for the final wild card spot.  They have no margin for error any more, and they'll be putting their best foot forward.  The Mets trail the Braves by five games in the NL East after losing four of their last six.  They are struggling offensively and just can't be trusted here.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound with Jordan Montgomery, who is 5-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his last three starts.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Megill, who is 2-4 with a 4.20 ERA in 14 starts this season.

The Yankees are 58-31 in night games this season.  New York is 11-3 in Montgomery's 14 night starts this season.  The Yankees are 8-0 in their last eight interleague games.  The Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 road games with a total set of 7 to 8.5.  The Mets are 8-22 in their last 30 games as underdogs.  The Mets are 0-7 in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Yankees Friday.

15* Cowboys/Bucs NFL Season Opener on Tampa Bay -8

Home teams on Thursday night NFL season openers have gone 15-2 SU in the last 17 games.  These teams coming off a Super Bowl win at home usually tend to play well in that first game back the next season.  And that should be the case with the Tampa Bay Bucs, especially now that they'll have a big home-field advantage with a packed house of home fans.

The Bucs are primed to be one of the best teams in the NFL again.  They return all 22 starters from last season, so the chemistry will be there.  The Bucs started slow last year in Tom Brady's first season, but they kept getting better and better as the season progressed, culminating in a dominant win over the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.  They should pick up right where they left off.

Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys have a ton of issues they are dealing with right now.  Dak Prescott is coming off a shoulder injury and didn't get to play in the preseason.  He will be rusty.  He'll be working behind a depleted offensive line that will be without Zack Martin, Brandon KNights, Josh Ball and Mitch Hyatt.  Tyron Smith and La'el Collins are also battling injuries and questionable.

While the Bucs will get plenty of stops with their elite defense, the Cowboys aren't likely to get many, which is why I'm willing to lay the points here.  Dallas gave up 29.6 points and 386.4 yards per game last season and did little to improve their defense on offense.  Instead, they have put their money in their flashy offense at the skill positions.  They aren't building this thing the right way.

Dallas went 0-8 ATS in the first half of the season last season.  Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games with a total set of 49.5 or higher.  The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Bucs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-109)

The Atlanta Braves are trying to win the NL East as they are 2.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for first place.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back from an upset loss to the Washington Nationals yesterday.

They should do just that thanks to their advantage on the mound. Huascar Ynoa has posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including a 2.29 ERA and 0.821 WHIP in six home starts.  Ynoa is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two starts against the Nationals this season, pitching 12 shutout innings.

Erick Fedde is 6-9 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.  Fedde has never beaten the Braves, going 0-4 with an 11.02 ERA and 2.449 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He has allowed 14 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings across three starts against the Braves in 2021 alone.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +105

The Toronto Blue Jays have gone 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to inch closer to a wild card spot.  They are hot at the plate having scored 50 runs in their last six games.  They should not be underdogs to the New York Yankees, who are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall.

The trade for Jose Berrios was a great one, giving the Blue Jays yet another top end starter in their underrated rotation.  Berrios is 10-7 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Nestor Cortes Jr., who is getting too much respect for what he has done over a small sample size this season.

The Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last seven meetings in New York.  The Yankees are 0-6 in their last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  New York is 0-5 in its last five home games.  Take the Blue Jays Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Line Mistake on Cincinnati Reds -120

The Chicago Cubs just had their surprising seven-game winning streak against bad competition come to an end yesterday.  Now look for them to suffer a hangover effect here against a highly motivated Cincinnati Reds team that is trying to earn a wild card spot.

The Reds should be more than -120 favorites today.  Vladamir Gutierrez is 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 10 road starts this season.  He has posted a 2.55 ERA in three starts against the Cubs this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.

Alec Mills has been at his worst at home this season, going 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.337 WHIP in seven starts at Wrigley Field.  Mills is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in two starts against the Reds in 2021, allowing 5 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.

The Reds are 6-1 in Gutierrez's seven road starts at night this season.  The Cubs are 1-11 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Reds Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-110)

The Atlanta Braves have a lot to play for right now as they are 2.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East.  They have a big advantage on the mound over the lowly Washington Nationals tonight.

Touki Toussaint is 3-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in eight starts for the Braves this season.  He'll be opposed by lefty Sean Nolin, who is 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in four starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.865 WHIP in three road starts.

The Braves are scoring 5.9 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  Atlanta is 22-6 in its last 28 games as a favorite.  The Nationals are 17-43 in their last 60 games overall, including 6-21 in their last 27 road games.  Atlanta is 26-10 in the last 35 meetings.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +108

The Toronto Blue Jays have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to inch closer to a wild card spot.  They are hot at the plate having scored 44 runs in their last five games.  They should not be underdogs to the New York Yankees, who are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.

Alek Manoah is just another of the underrated starters in Toronto's rotation.  He is 5-2 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  One of those starts came against the Yankees on May 27th when he pitched 6 shutout innings in a 2-0 victory at New York.

The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Yankees are 1-6 in their last seven games following a loss.  Two teams headed in opposite direction and we'll back the hot team in the underdog role.  Roll with the Blue Jays Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -147

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they continue to pursue a wild card spot, but are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Cubs in Game 1 of this series.  Look for them to have their revenge due to their advantage on the mound.

Wade Miley has quietly gone 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA in 25 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 12 road starts.  Miley pitched 7 shutout innings in a 14-5 win over the Cubs on August 16th in his last start against them.

Adrian Sampson will be making just his second start of the season for the Cubs.  He is 6-13 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in four years in the majors across 164 1/3 innings.

Miley's teams are 16-2 in 18 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Reds Tuesday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-113)

The Atlanta Braves have a lot to play for right now as they are 1.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East.  They are rested having yesterday off, while the Nationals played yesterday and will be playing their 6th game in 5 days.  The Braves have a big advantage on the mound over the lowly Nationals tonight.

Max Fried has been dominant for a couple months now.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts.  Fried has gone 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA in those seven starts, allowing just 9 earned runs in 46 innings.  He is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last two starts against the Nationals this season, allowing just 2 earned runs in 12 innings.

Paulo Espino is 4-3 with a 4.33 ERA in 14 starts for the Nationals, including 1-0 with a 5.21 ERA in five home starts.  Espino faced the Braves once this season on August 15th, allowing 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 base runners in 4 innings.

The Braves are 39-13 in Fried's last 52 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Nationals are 17-42 in their last 59 games overall, including 6-20 in their last 26 road games.  Atlanta is 25-10 in the last 35 meetings.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +200

The Toronto Blue Jays have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall to inch closer to a wild card spot.  They are hot at the plate having scored 39 runs in their last four games.  They should not be +200 underdogs to the New York Yankees, who are 2-7 in their last nine games overall.

Gerrit Cole is the Cy Young favorite but Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays should give him a run for his money.  As good as Cole has been, he still shouldn't be this big of a favorite.

Steven Matz is 10-7 with a 3.80 ERA in 24 starts this season, 7-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 13 road starts, and 0-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts.  Matz held the Yankees to one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-2 win at New York as a +155 dog in his last start against them on May 25th.  Take the Blue Jays Tuesday.

20* Louisville/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss -9

I have high hopes for the Ole Miss Rebels this season.  They did great to get to 5-5 in Lane Kiffin's first season last year after a win over Indiana in their bowl game.  They gave Alabama their toughest game of the season as it was tied 42-42 in the 4th quarter to flash their potential.

Now Kiffin welcomes back 17 starters and some of the best talent in the entire country thanks to the job he has done in recruiting plus what was done before he got there.  The offense is going to be one of the best in the country after averaging 39.2 points and 556 yards per game last season.  Eight starters are back including QB Matt Corral, who completed 79.9% of his passes for 3,337 yards and 29 touchdowns last year, while also rushing for 506 yards and four scores.

The offense will get their points, and the defense should be one of the most improved in the land with nine starters back.  They will be much better conditioned to deal with all the plays they have to face due to their quick-paces offense.  Ole Miss had to face 77 plays per game last year and should be in better shape to deal with it this year.

Louisville took a big step back in Scott Satterfield's second season last year, which is a bad sign.  After going 8-5 in 2019 they slipped to 4-7 last year.  Their four wins came against Western Kentucky, FSU, Syracuse and Wake Forest in four games they were favored in.  And now they have just 13 starters back, which is a low amount compared to most teams in this aberration season.  

They lost three of their biggest playmakers on offense.  WR's Dre Fitzpatrick and Tutu Atwell are gone after combining for 89 receptions, 1,458 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (822 yards, 7 TD, 6.2/carry) is also gone.  Five of the top seven tacklers have departed on defense as well, which is going to make the task of stopping Ole Miss' offense in the opener a daunting one.  Bet Ole Miss Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -141

The Cincinnati Reds are fighting to make the postseason.  The Chicago Cubs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after winning six straight coming in against the Pirates and Twins, two of the worst teams in baseball.

The Reds have a big advantage on the mound today with Sonny Gray, who has been at his best on the road this season at 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in nine starts away from home.  Gray is really feeling himself of late, going 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.556 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners in 18 innings.

Justin Steele is 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.415 WHIP in four starts this season for the Cubs, including 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in two home starts.  Gray is 4-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in nine career starts against the Cubs.

The Cubs are 14-39 in their last 53 games as underdogs.  Chicago is 5-21 in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cubs are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.  Take the Reds Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +125

The Toronto Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last eight games overall and thriving under the pressure of trying to make the postseason.  They are very hot at the plate right now, scoring a combined 29 runs in their last three games.  The Yankees are struggling, going just 2-6 in thier last eight games overall.

The Blue Jays have the advantage on the mound today and shouldn't be underdogs because of it.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is 12-8 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Ryu is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last four starts against the Yankees, allowing just 5 earned runs in 25 innings.

He'll be opposed by Jameson Taillon, who is 8-5 with a 4.44 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Taillon has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 9.22 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays in his lone start against them in 2021.  Roll with the Blue Jays Monday.

15* Notre Dame/FSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +7

The Florida State Seminoles are primed to make a big leap forward in head coach Mike Norvell's second season.  He stepped into a difficult situation last year and had just three spring practices to get his team ready.  At the end of the year due to opt outs, transfer and injuries, Norvell had just 50 scholarship players to work with.

The talent is definitely there at Florida State now.  Norvell has 17 returning starters and another great recruiting class.  I think this is the year the Seminoles finally start to turn things around since Jimbo Fisher left, and it starts in Week 1 against Notre Dame.  Norvell is an offensive genius, and he has 10 returning starters on offense plus brings in UCF transfer McKenzie Milton at quarterback.

Notre Dame loses almost everyone from the team that went 10-2 last season and made the four-team playoff.  They have just nine starters back in all, which is very low for this season in particular compared to every other team.  They must replace nine NFL draft picks, including QB Ian Book, who set a career ND record with 30 wins.  

There's a reason QB Jack Coan was replaced as the starter at Wisconsin, and he is a big downgrade from Book.  And he'll be working with four new starters alone the offensive line.  It will be a rough start to the season offensively.  The defense should still be solid, but it's worth noting they did allow 31 or more points in four of their final six games last year.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida State) - a bad defensive team from last season that allowed 425 or more yards per game, with eight or more offensive starters plus the QB returning in the first month of the season are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS since 1992.  Take Florida State Sunday.

15* MLB Run Line ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-107)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 15-3 in their last 18 games overall with 14 wins by two runs or more.  The Minnesota Twins are 0-4 in their last four games with all four losses by two runs or more.  It should be more of the same Sunday.

The Rays have the advantage on the mound behind Louis Patino, who is 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in six home starts this season.  Griffin Jax is 2-3 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.366 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Twins.  He has allowed 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

Minnesota is 1-10 in its last 11 road games after scoring four runs or less in four straight games.  The Rays are 47-19 in their last 66 Sunday games.  Tampa Bay is 51-15 in its last 66 games following a win.  The Ryas are 66-19 in their last 85 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Rays on the Run line Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+100)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last seven games overall as they make their push for the postseason.  One of the teams they are chasing is the A's, who they are trying to sweep today.  They have scored 11 and 10 runs in the first two games of this series, so they are clearly swinging the bats well.

Now the Blue Jays won't even need that much run support to cover this Run Line.  That's because one of the best starters in baseball goes today for them.  Robbie Ray has amazingly allowed 4 earned runs or fewer in 27 consecutive starts.  Ray has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts, and 3 earned runs or fewer in 16 of his last 17 starts.

Cole Irvin has allowed 3 earned runs or more in each of his last four starts.  The Blue Jays will tag him today.  Oakland is 0-7 this season after a game where the bullpen gave up 5 earned runs or more.  It is coming back to lose by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Nevada/Cal FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on California -3

Justin Wilcox is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  He improved Cal from 5-7 in his first season to 7-6 in his second season and 8-5 in his third season.  Then Cal got a late start last season due to COVID and their first game was against UCLA, which was scheduled just three days prior to playing it.

Cal went on the road with a defensive line that wasn't able to practice with the team for two weeks and loss.  Then they lost by 4 to Oregon State and had a PAT blocked in a 1-point loss to Stanford.  After the 0-3 start, the Bears showed some heart with their upset win over Oregon in their finale.  The Ducks went on to win the Pac-12.

Cal has now had a normal spring and is off to a way better start than they were last season because of it.  Wilcox welcomes back 17 starters, and 28 of 33 players who made starts last season.  This will be one of the best defenses in the country, and the offense should be the best of the Wilcox era behind third-year starting QB Chase Garbers and nine returning starters on offense.

Nevada is getting a lot of hype coming into the season.  The Wolf Pack went 7-2 last season, but it came against what turned out to be a very weak Mountain West.  They had one-score wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State.  The other four wins came against UNLV, Fresno State and Tulane.  And they lost their toughest game to San Jose State in the Mountain West Championship Game.

No question the Wolf Pack have a great offense and great QB in Carson Strong.  But they are a flashy team.  Cal's defense will be up to the task, and a bigger concern for Nevada is a defense that allowed 599 yards to Fresno State and 506 yards to San Jose State in their final two games of the regular season last year.

Cal is undefeated in regular season non-conference games under Wilcox, going a perfect 9-0 SU with wins over the likes of Ole Miss (twice), UNC (twice) and BYU.  The Golden Bears lead the all-time series with Nevada 22-3-1.   Roll with California Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama ML -115

South Alabama is definitely a sleeper in what has turned out to be a very underrated Sun Belt Conference this season.  Louisiana, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State proved last year that the Sun Belt is no joke.  And the Jaguars are definitely flying under the radar this year in that conference.

First-year head coach Kan Wommack spent the last two years as the defensive coordinator at Indiana.  He is a familiar face here as he was the defensive coordinator for the Jaguars previously.  Wommack finished as a finalist for the Broyles Award last year, which goes to the top assistant coach.  He brings with him offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, the former Houston head coach.

Wommack has 17 returning starters to work with and a ton of talent.  He brought in Utah transfer Jake Bentley to start at quarterback.  He also brought in Mississippi State transfer Kareem Walker at running back, who was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school.  RG James Jackson is a Mississippi State transfer, and WR Allen Dailey is a Kentucky transfer.

The Jaguars already boast one of the conference's best receivers in Jalen Tolbert, who had 64 receptions for 1,085 yards and eight touchdowns in 11 games last year.  They have one of the best defensive lines in the Sun Belt.  And keep in mind they beat what at the time was a healthy Southern Miss team outright as 13-point underdogs in the opener last year.

Speaking of Southern Miss, the Golden Eagles are on the decline.  They went just 3-7 last year and went through three different head coaches.  They settled on former Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall as their new head coach.  He does inherit 17 returning starters, but there are a ton of questions surrounding this team.

There is no proven QB to turn to here at Southern Miss as they lose their top two from last year.  The defense is a problem after allowing 32.3 points and 181 rushing yards per game last year.  This defense gave up 32 points and 526 total yards to South Alabama last year.

The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.  The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet South Alabama on the money line Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +130

The St. Louis Cardinals are quietly making a run at the postseason.  They have gone 16-9 in their last 25 games overall.  The just beat the Brewers 15-4 yesterday, who are going to have a hard time being motivated the rest of the way now that they basically already have the NL Central locked up.

The wrong team is favored here as the Cardinals have the advantage on the mound.  Kwang-Hyun Kim is 6-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Kim owns the Brewers, going 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing just 2 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.

Adrian Houser is 6-6 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in 21 starts this season for the Brewers.  He just gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings to the Twins last time out.  Houser is 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.836 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers +180

The Detroit Tigers have been consistently undervalued this season.  As a result, they have been one of the most profitable teams to back.  That was the case again yesterday as they crushed Cincinnati 15-5 as a big underdog.  The Reds are now just 1-5 in their last six games overall and struggling right now.

The Tigers shouldn't be this big of an underdog when you consider they actually have the advantage on the mound today.  Matt Boyd hast posted a 3.50 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA in his last three starts.

He'll be opposed by Tyler Mahle, who has been great on the road this season, but terrible at home.  Indeed, Mahle is 3-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 12 home starts this season.  Roll with the Tigers Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech +23.5

Skip Holtz is one of the most underrated college football head coaches in the country.  He hasn't had a losing season here since his first year in 2013.  He rarely has many returning starters as he tends to find some gems in the transfer portal.  He has had 15 or fewer returning starters in all eight seasons in Ruston and 13 or fewer in seven of them.

Now Holtz welcomes back 17 starters from a team that was ravaged by COVID last year.  They opened 5-3 last year including an upset of UAB before a their depleted team lost their final two games.  They had a patchwork offensive line and it just wasn't pretty down the stretch for them with games cancelled due to COVID.

10 starters are back on defense on what should be one of the most improved units in the country.  Remember, LA Tech allowed 21.8 PPG, 23.0 PPG and 25.4 PPG their previous three seasons before giving up 34.7 PPG last year with just one returning starter on D.  They only had 6 returning starters in all last year.  They get DE Willie Baker back after sitting out last year and he is probably their best player defensively.

Offensively, the Bulldogs should get back to the high-powered offenses of the past.  They averaged at least 30 PPG in five of their previous six seasons before falling to 26.7 PPG last year.  They have seven returning starters on offense and add in WVU transfer Austin Kendall at quarterback, who is getting the start for the opener.

Kendall backed up two straight Heisman trophy winners at Oklahoma in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.  He was the starter for WVU in 2019 with a terrible cast around him and a first-year head coach.  Kendall and has thrown for 2,418 yards with 17 TD's and 10 INT's in his collegiate career.  He sat behind Jarrett Doege last year, but replaced him in the second half of WVU's bowl game to lead a comeback win over Army and threw for 121 yards and two touchdowns.  That performance will have him coming into 2021 with a ton of confidence.

I'm way down on Mississippi State this year.  The Bulldogs went 4-7 in Mike Leach's first season with their only win against a team with a winning record coming against Tulsa in a 2-point win in the bowl game.  But they were outgained by 213 yards by Tulsa in that bowl game and it was a fluke win.   They didn't win any games by more than 19 points last year.

Asking Mississippi State to beat LA Tech by 24-plus points to cover is asking too much.  No question they will be improved in Mike Leach's second season, but they had all season to try and get better last year and it really didn't happen.  And they had 20 players hit the transfer portal in the offseason as many guys did not like Leach's 'my way or the highway' approach.

The Air Raid offense can only be better after averaging just 21.4 PPG last year.  But I like the fact that Skip Holtz is familiar with this offense and has all offseason to prepare his team for it.  I think Louisiana Tech will get enough stops in this one, and they'll be able to put up enough points offensively behind Kendall to keep them within this 23.5-point spread for four quarters.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* WVU/Maryland Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on West Virginia -2.5

Neal Brown did big things at Troy before coming here with three straight double-digit win seasons.  It was a rebuilding year in his first season in 2019 with just seven returning starters.  But he brought back 14 starters last year and the Mountaineers were much better, going 6-4 in his second season.  The 3rd season is when head coaches usually make their biggest leaps, and that should be the case with the Mountaineers in 2020.

West Virginia returns 17 starters.  Eight are back from one of the best defenses in the country that allowed just 20.5 points and 291 yards per game last season.  Nine starters are back on offense from a unit that put up 413 yards per game last year.  So they outgained their opponents by 122 yards per game last year and were even better than their 6-4 record would indicate.

I think Taulia Tagovailoa being the brother of Miami Dolphins QB Tua has Maryland overhyped.  He was not very good as a freshman with a 7-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  He does have some good receivers to throw to, but I just think the Terrapins are a flashy offensive team that everyone likes.

The problem with the Terrapins is the defense, which gave up 32.0 points and 430 yards per game last season.  They could not stop the run as they gave up 230 rushing yards per game.  They are starting five underclassmen on the offensive line, so they are very weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  WVU will have the advantage at the point of attack on both sides, which is a big reason I like them to win and cover here.

Maryland hasn't had a winning record since 2014 and just can't be trusted.  The Terrapins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  The Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine September games.  West Virginia is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mountaineers are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with all nine wins coming by 3 points or more and seven wins by double-digits.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Fresno State +20.5

I like Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer, who took over for Jeff Tedford last year after serving as his offensive coordinator previously.  It didn't go great in Year 1 but they did go 3-3 and will make a huge leap in Year 2.  DeBoer welcomes back 19 starters, a potent offense and an improved defense.

QB Jake Haener is back after completing 64.7% of his passes for 2,021 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio in just six games last year.  Ronnie Rivers rushed for 507 yards and 7 TD in five games and made first-team All-Mountain West.  All of his top receivers are back as nine starters return in all on offense.

Where the Bulldogs will be most improved is on defense, where they return 10 starters and each of their top 12 tacklers.  That showed in their opener as they beat Connecticut 45-0 and held the Huskies to just 107 total yards.  And I like the fact that they have a game under their belt already, which should have them being the sharper team here against Oregon early on.

It's generally a good idea to fade Pac-12 teams, and I have no problem doing just that in the right spots.  I think Oregon is being overvalued here in the early going after winning the Pac-12 last year.  But keep in mind they didn't win a single game last year by more than 21 points and found themselves in dog fights each week.

Oregon does have 16 returning starters, including nine on offense and will be good offensively.  But they do lose QB Tyler Shough to the transfer portal, and former Boston College QB Anthony Brown is almost certainly a downgrade.  More concerning is an Oregon defense that brings back just six starters from a unit that allowed 28.3 points and 406 yards per game last year.

Injuries are showing up for Oregon defensively already, too, so Fresno State should be able to match them score for score here.  The secondary injuries are concerning as two projected starters in CB DJ James and S Jamal Hill are both out due to suspension.  The Bulldogs will be able to dice them up through the air, so they'll never be out of it.

Fresno State is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Ducks are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +161

The St. Louis Cardinals are quietly making a run at the postseason.  They have gone 15-9 in their last 24 games overall.  They come into this series rested after having yesterday off, while the Brewers had to fly back from a series that ended in San Francisco yesterday and will be fatigued.

Ace Adam Wainwright goes for the Cardinals tonight and has been lacking respect all season.  He is 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Wainwright has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts and 4 earned runs or fewer in 18 straight.

Wainwright is 6-1 with a 1.55 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing just 10 earned runs in 58 innings.  He is 18-12 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 39 career starts against Milwaukee.  He'll be opposed by Freddy Peralta, who has posted a 4.73 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.  Peralta has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-1 with a 5.49 ERA in five career starts against them.

The Cardinals are 12-2 in Wainwright's last 14 starts after losing their previous game.  St. Louis is 10-3 in its last 13 road games.  Roll with the Cardinals Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians +160

The Cleveland Indians have quietly gone 9-3 in their last 12 games overall and are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They have now scored at least 3 runs in 18 consecutive games and are coming to life at the plate.

Cal Quantrill is having a great season for the Indians.  He is 4-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 17 starts.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts.  Quantrill is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last nine starts, allowing just 9 earned runs in 55 innings.

One of those starts came against Boston on August 28th in his last outing where he allowed just one earned run in 7 innings.  He'll be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi, who is 1-2 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in four career starts against the Indians.

The Indians are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Red Sox are 5-14 in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.  Coming off two straight wins over the division rival Rays, this is a bit of a letdown spot for the Red Sox, who are also dealing with COVID issues right now.  Take the Indians Friday.

20* UNC/Virginia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -5.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are going to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  This is Mack Brown's third season here and he has brought in some tremendous recruiting classes each year.  The fruits of his labor should pay off in a big way this season as his team is an ACC and National Title contender.

The Tar Heels went 8-4 last season and had Top 5 Texas A&M on the ropes in their bowl game despite missing several of their best players who sat out to get ready for the NFL Draft.  Now They bring back 18 starters and only lose a couple of those players that sat out at the skill positions.  Sam Howell is one of the best QB's in the country and will be working behind a veteran offensive line, so they will be fine offensively.

What has me really excited about this team is the improvements they should make defensively.  After giving up 29.4 points per game last year, the Tar Heels welcome back 10 starters on defense and this should be their best stop unit in at least a decade.  Many times their offense was asked to win shootouts last season, but that won't be the case nearly as much in 2021.

I'm just not a huge fan of Justin Fuente, and it's hard to trust the Hokies now that legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster has departed.  We saw what happened to the Hokies in their first season without him last year.  Despite having 10 returning starters on D, Virginia Tech allowed 32.1 points and 447 yards per game.  They gave up 56 points to North Carolina in a loss to them last year.

Offensively, the Hokies lost QB Hendon Hooker to transfer.  He was a great player for them and finished with 620 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground alone last year, so he will be missed.  They also lose leading rusher Khalil Herbert, who ran for 1,182 yards and 8 touchdowns at 7.7 yards per carry.  Their 15 returning starters is actually among the fewest in the ACC.  Fuente is coming off a 5-6 season and this team is just on the decline.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105)

The Atlanta Braves come in highly motivated for a victory after getting swept by the Dodgers last series with their three losses coming by a combined four runs.  They just got done playing the Dodgers, Giants and Yankees the last three series and now take a big step down in competition against the Rockies and should dominate Game 1 of this series.

The Braves have a big advantage on the mound that should have them winning by two runs or more.  Touki Toussant has been at his best on the road this season, going 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in four starts away from home.

Chi Chi Gonzalez hasn't been good anywhere.  He is 2-5 with a 6.15 ERA in 16 starts for the Rockies this season, including 0-1 with a 10.50 ERA in his last three while allowing 14 earned runs in 12 innings.

The Braves are 18-4 after losing four of their last five games coming in over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  Atlanta is 41-14 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons, winning by 2.3 runs per game.  Roll with the Braves on the Run Line Thursday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -106

The Cleveland Indians are quietly making a run at the postseason as we enter September.  They have quietly gone 8-3 in their last 11 games overall while scoring 5 runs or more in eight of their last 12 games and 3 runs or more in 17 consecutive games.

The Indians have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Royals and should be bigger favorites because of it.  Triston McKenzie has been lights out, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.429 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 21 innings.

McKenzie owns the Royals, going 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has pitched 12 shutout innings against the Royals in 2021 alone.  He'll be opposed by Mike Minor, who is 8-11 with a 5.30 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Minor is 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA in two starts against the Indians in 2021, allowing 9 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings.

Kansas City is 1-16 off two straight home losses to a division opponent over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Cleveland is 37-17 in its last 54 games as a favorite.  The Indians are 14-2 in their last 16 meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Indians Thursday.

20* Ohio State/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on UNDER 63.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes lose a ton of talent on offense this year.  They lost QB Justin Fields and RB Trey Sermon.  They won't be as good as they were offensively the past couple seasons under Fields.  It will take them some time to hit on all cylinders, especially in Week 1.

Ohio State's defense slipped last year and should be improved.  They gave up just 98 rushing yards per game last year but 304 passing.  Their secondary will be one of the most improved in the entire country, and the defensive line is as talented as any in the land.

Minnesota went from giving up 22.5 points per game in 2019 to 30.1 points per game last year.  But they had just four starters back on defense last year and were inexperienced.  Now the Gophers return 10 starters on defense and will be one of the most improved units in the country.

Minnesota wants to slow this game down and run the football to try and keep it competitive.  They have averaged at least 171 rushing yards per game in all four seasons under PJ Fleck, so running the ball has been a priority.  I expect Ohio State to rely on the run as well to try and ease freshman QB CJ Stroud into the season.  

Defenses are usually ahead of the offenses in Week 1 of the season.  That will be the case for both of these teams in 2021 with what they have returning on D.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-126)

The Baltimore Orioles are 3-23 in their last 26 games overall with a whopping 21 losses by two runs or more.  That's a big reason I'm willing to lay this juice on the Run Line on the Toronto Blue Jays, who need a big finish to make the postseason and won't be taking the Orioles lightly.  They'll come back highly motivated after an upset loss to the Orioles yesterday.

The Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Steven Matz, who is 10-7 with a 3.81 ERA in 23 starts this season.  Matz has been very good of late, going 1-0 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last three starts.

Matt Harvey is one of my favorite starters to fade in all of baseball.  He is 6-14 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Harvey is also 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA in three starts against the Blue Jays this season, allowing 13 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.

Baltimore is 2-29 after a 5-game span where the bullpen had a 7.00 ERA or rose this season.  It is getting outscored by an average of 4.0 runs per game in this spot in these 31 games.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-147)

The Baltimore Orioles are 2-23 in their last 25 games overall with a whopping 21 losses by two runs or more.  That's a big reason I'm willing to lay this juice on the Run Line on the Toronto Blue Jays, who need a big finish to make the postseason and won't be taking the Orioles lightly.

The Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning by two runs or more.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is 12-7 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He has never lost to the Orioles, going 4-0 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in six career starts against them.  That includes 3-0 in 2021 alone with the Blue Jays winning those games by 8, 8 and 3 runs.

Keegan Akin is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 1-8 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.842 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-5 with a 9.73 ERA and 2.163 WHIP in seven road starts.  Akin is 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in three career starts against the Blue Jays as well.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 12-4 loss to Toronto in his lone start against them in 2021.

Baltimore is 1-29 after a 5-game span where the bullpen had a 7.00 ERA or worse this season, losing by 4.1 runs per game on average.  Ryu's teams are 55-17 in his 72 career starts against teams with losing records, and they are winning by 2.8 runs per game.  Toronto is 14-1 vs. a starting pitcher with worse than a 20% winning percentage and winning by 4.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-155)

The Baltimore Orioles are 2-22 in their last 24 games overall with a whopping 20 losses by two runs or more.  That's a big reason I'm willing to lay this juice on the Run Line with the Toronto Blue Jays, who need a big finish to make the postseason and won't be taking the Orioles lightly.

Robbie Ray is one of my favorite starters to back this season.  Ray is 9-5 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 13 home starts.  He has a whopping 192 K's in 152 1/3 innings this season.

Amazingly, Ray has allowed 4 earned runs or fewer in 26 consecutive starts, including 3 or fewer in 23 of those.  He'll be opposed by Chris Ellis, who will be making just his second start of the season after allowing 3 earned runs in 3 innings against the Angels in his first start on August 25th.

The Orioles are 11-40 in their last 51 road games.  The Blue Jays are 83-39 in their last 122 home meetings.  Toronto is 37-17 in the last 54 meetings overall.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Mariners -145

The Seattle Mariners will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after dropping the first three games of this series to the Kansas City Royals as big favorites.  Now they are the smallest favorite they have been in this series and will avoid the sweep.

Marco Gonzalez has been at his best down the stretch for the Mariners.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts.  Gonzalez is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his last seven starts while allowing just 9 earned runs in 43 2/3 innings.

Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals as well.  He'll be opposed by Brady Singer, who is 3-9 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  Singer is 1-4 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in nine road starts as well.

The Mariners are 8-0 in Gonzalez's last eight home starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest.  Seattle is 8-0 in its last eight during Game 4 of a series.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-109)

The Cincinnati Reds have a big advantage on the mound today over the Miami Marlins that should have them winning this game by two runs or more to cover this Run Line.

Tyler Mahle is 10-4 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 26 starts for the Reds this season.  Mahle has been at his best on the road, going 7-1 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.996 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  He has also posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against Miami.

Jesus Lazardo has been a dumpster fire this season for the Marlins.  He is 3-6 with a 7.51 ERA and 1.847 WHIP In 11 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 9.94 ERA and 2.368 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Reds are 30-12 in their last 42 games as favorites.  Cincinnati is 20-7 in its last 27 during Game 3 of a series.  Miami is 1-8 in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The Marlins are 19-40 in their last 59 games as underdogs.  Cincinnati is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with the Reds on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Cowboys NFLX No-Brainer on Jacksonville -3.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-140)

The Chicago Cubs are a dumpster fire right now.  They are just 14-41 in their last 55 games overall and just allowed 17 runs to the Chicago White Sox yesterday.  The White Sox are now 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Cubs recently while winning all four games by two runs or more.  It should be more of the same today.

The White Sox have a big advantage on the mound today with Cy Young contender Lance Lynn, who is 10-3 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Lynn held the Cubs to one earned run in 6 innings of an 8-6 victory on August 6th in his lone start against them this season.

Alec Mills is 3-6 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Cubs.  Mills just allowed 6 earned runs and 11 hits in 4 innings of a 9-1 loss to the lowly Kansas City Royals in his last start.  He will get rocked by a hot White Sox offense that has now scored 27 combined runs in their last two games.

Lynn's teams are 47-16 in his 63 career home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  They are winning by 1.7 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cubs are 0-7 in their last seven interleague games.  The White Sox are 59-27 in their last 86 home games.  Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-105)

Death, taxes and Adam Wainwright owns the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Wainwright is 6-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last six starts against the Pirates, allowing just 4 earned runs in 42 innings.  He has allowed just one earned run in 23 innings across three starts against the Pirates in 2021 alone.

It's no fluke as Wainwright has had a career resurrection this season, going 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 25 starts, including 2-1 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in his last three.  He'll be opposed by Steven Brault, who is 1-3 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in eight career starts against the Cardinals.

St. Louis is 7-0 in Wainwright's last seven starts against the Pirates with all seven wins coming by two runs or more.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight road games.  St. Louis is 42-19 in the last 61 meetings, including 22-4 in the last 26 meetings in Pittsburgh.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Saturday.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears -2.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Football Team +3.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* Hawaii/UCLA College Football Season Opener on UNDER 68

There's not a lot I like in Week 0 college football.  But this play on the UNDER definitely stood out and is worth a bet.  I like to bet UNDERS early in the season because defenses tend to be ahead of offenses.  And I think that will be the case in this game between UCLA and Hawaii.

UCLA should have its best defense of the Chip Kelly era.  His defense improved greatly last season from allowing 34.8 points and 456 yards per game in 2019 to 30.7 points and 410 yards per game in 2020.  And after having just six starters back on defense last year, UCLA welcomes back 10 starters on D in 2021 and should be dominant on this side of the ball.

Offensively, UCLA clearly relies on running the football.  They averaged 231 rushing yards per game last season compared to 224 passing.  That will keep the clock moving and help us cash this UNDER.  Also, it's worth noting UCLA has LSU on deck next week, so if the Bruins get a big lead they will be looking to milk the clock late.  Considering the Bruins are 18-point favorites, they should have a big lead late.

Todd Graham did a good job in his first season in getting Hawaii to 5-4.  They didn't do it with offense as they averaged just 26.2 points per game.  They did it with defense in giving up just 27.6 points per game, the fewest that Hawaii has allowed since 2014.  Now the Rainbow Warriors return all 11 starters on defense and should be even better on that side of the ball.

Offensively, the Warriors also like to run the football as they averaged 152 yards per game on the ground last season and 384 yards per game total.  They have a running QB in Chevan Cordeiro, who led the team in rushing last season.  Well UCLA was stingy against the run last year, yielding 136 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  Add it all up and we have a solid play on the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NFLX Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Eagles +5.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-140)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 8-1 in their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by two runs or more.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those nine games and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.

Now they take on a Baltimore Orioles team that they have owned this season.  Indeed, the Rays are 15-1 against the Orioles in 2021 with 13 of those wins coming by two runs or more.  They take on a struggling Orioles team that is 2-19 in their last 21 games overall with 18 of those losses coming by two runs or more.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Shane McClanahan, who is 8-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  McClanahan owns the Orioles, going 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three starts against them in 2021 with the Rays winning those games by 5, 9 and 6 runs.

Matt Harvey is one of my favorite starters to fade in all of baseball.  He is 6-13 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.544 WHIP In 25 starts this season, including 2-8 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Harvey is 0-2 with a 15.62 ERA and 2.208 WHIP in two starts against the Rays in 2021, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 1/3 innings.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Friday.

20* NFLX Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -2

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-140)

The Boston Red Sox have scored 25 combined runs in their last three games.  They will give Chris Sale plenty of run support tonight, and he's not going to need much.  Sale dominated in the minors leading up to his return from the IL and that has carrier over.

Indeed, Sale is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his two starts while allowing just 2 earned runs with 13 K's in 10 innings.  Now he'll shut down the Minnesota Twins.  Sale is 1-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins, allowing just 3 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings with 30 K's.

John Gant is 4-7 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 15 starts this season while averaging just 4.5 innings per start.  Gant has really struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.

The Twins are 11-28 in their last 39 games vs. a left-handed starters, including 1-6 in their last seven road games vs. southpaws.  Minnesota is 4-12 in its last 16 games following a win.  The Red Sox are 14-4 in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Dodgers/Padres ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles -137

The Los Angeles Dodgers are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They are 14-2 in their last 16 games overall and should be bigger favorites over the struggling San Diego Padres.  The Padres are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall despite being favorites in 11 of those games.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Ace and Cy Young contender Walker Buehler gets the ball.  He is 13-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.930 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-0 with a 2.07 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 10 road starts.  

Buehler has never lost to the Padres, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Blake Snell, who has been a bit of a disappointment for the Padres this season.  Snell is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  

The Dodgers are 15-1 in Buehler's 16 road starts vs. NL West opponents over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 74-33 in its last 107 games as a road favorite.  San Diego is 8-22 in its last 30 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-115)

The Houston Astros have lost four out of five meetings with the Kansas City Royals over the past week.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping Game 1 of this series at home.

The Astros have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning this game by two runs or more.  Luis Garcia is 9-5 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.888 WHIP in 10 home starts.

He'll be opposed by Brady Singer, who is 3-8 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.602 WHIP in 21 starts thsi season.  Singer has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 10.21 ERA and 2.431 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 30 base runners in 12 1/3 innings.

Plays on any team (Houston) - in the AL with a starting pitcher with a 3.50 ERA or better against an opponent with a starting pitcher that wins less than 30% of his starts are 60-12 (83.3%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-123)

The Houston Astros are hot at the plate right now in scoring a combined 36 runs in their last four games.  They rank 1st in all of baseball in runs per 9 innings, 1st in average and 2nd in OPS.  They are exactly the type of team you want to back on the Run Line with their ability to put up runs.

Ace Zack Greinke goes for the Astros tonight.  He is 11-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts.  Greinke has posted a 2.68 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in six career starts against the Royals as well.

Daniel Lynch is 3-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in eight starts for the Royals this season.  Lynch is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in three road starts as well.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start and the Astros should get into the Royals shaky bullpen early in this one.

Greinke is 54-15 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 in his career with his teams winning by 2.2 runs per game on average.  The Royals are 17-35 in their last 52 road games.  The Astros are 140-68 in their last 208 home games.  Houston is 73-29 in its last 102 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Monday.

20* Jaguars/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Jacksonville +4

No analysis for preseason.

20* 49ers/Chargers NFLX No-Brainer on OVER 34

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-110)

The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after dropping the first two games of this series to the Pirates as -205 and -195 favorites.  Look for them to avoid the sweep and win this game by two runs or more this afternoon.

Ace Adam Wainwright has been revived this season, going 11-7 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 24 starts, including 6-5 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Wainwright owns the Pirates, going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing just 4 earned runs in 34 innings.

Steven Brault is 1-2 with a 5.70 ERA in seven career starts against the Cardinals.  St. Louis is 6-0 in Wainwright's last six starts against Pittsburgh with all six wins coming by two runs or more.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Brewers OVER 9

The Washington Nationals have scored 4 or more runs in 19 of their last 25 games overall.  The OVER is 15-4 in Nationals last 19 games.  The Milwaukee Brewers have scored 4 or more runs in 14 of their last 18 games overall and are just about as hot as any team in the majors over the past couple months.

The Brewers should feast on Sean Nolin, who will be making just his second start of the season for the Nationals.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 8 hits in 3 innings to the Mets in his only previous start. Adrian Houser is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is 6-5 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in 19 starts this season.

The OVER is 8-0 in Houser's last eight starts with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs.  The OVER is 18-6 in Nationals last 24 road games with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs.  The OVER is 16-4 in Houser's last 20 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Indianapolis Colts +2

No analysis for preseason.

15* NFLX Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Lions +6.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-119)

The Baltimore Orioles are 0-16 in their last 16 games overall and have been outscored 141-42 in the process.  They have lost all 16 games by two runs or more and 15 of them by three runs or more.  Look for that trend to continue today against the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have won seven straight and are 14-2 in their last 16 games overall.  They have won 11 of those games by two runs or more.  And now they once again have a big advantage on the mound over the Orioles today.

Drew Smyly is 8-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 21 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Matt Harvey, who is one of my favorite starters to fade.  Harvey is 6-12 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-7 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.640 WHIP in 11 home starts.

Atlanta is 10-0 in August road games this season and winning by 4.2 runs per game.  The Braves are 8-1 in Smyly's last nine road starts following a win.  Smyly is 14-0 in his last 14 starts vs. terrible speed teams that average 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game in the second half of the season.  His teams are winning by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Giants/A's Interleague ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -108

The San Francisco Giants have lost two in a row and will be highly motivated to bounce back Saturday.  They haven't lost three in a row since July 1st, so they have been a very resilient team over the last month and a half.

The Giants have the advantage on the mound today over the Oakland A's.  Kevin Gausman is 12-5 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 1.55 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 13 road starts.  He hasn't fallen off at all, going 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts.  Gausman has posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in six career starts against Oakland as well.

Speaking of falling off, Sean Manaea has been brutal of late for Oakland.  He is 0-2 with a 12.27 ERA and 2.182 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings.  It's not like he has faced stiff competition either as the three starts have come against the Rangers, Indians and Padres.

The Giants are 19-3 in their last 22 games this season coming off a three-game span in which their bullpen threw 13 or more innings.  San Francisco is 9-2 in Gausman's 11 starts against a team with a winning record this season.  The Giants are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss.  Take the Giants Saturday.

20* Bills/Bears NFLX Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +4.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-124)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are doing their best to chase down the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.  They have won seven straight and are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall with seven wins by two runs or more.  They should make easy work of the struggling New York Mets, who are 1-6 in their last seven games overall.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Walker Buehler, who is a Cy Young contender at 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Buehler held the Mets to one run in seven innings in his lone start against them this season on August 14th.

Carlos Carrasco has returned from the IL and is only a shell of his former self, clearly.  Carrasco is 0-1 with a 10.33 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 1/3 innings.  One of those starts came against the Dodgers on August 15th when he allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 innings of a 14-4 defeat.

The Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Dodgers are 65-27 in their last 92 home games.  Los Angeles is 42-17 in the last 59 meetings.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

20* Chiefs/Cardinals NFLX No-Brainer on Arizona +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-149)

The Baltimore Orioles are 0-15 in their last 15 games overall and have been outscored 138-42 in the process.  They have lost all 15 games by two runs or more and 14 of them by three runs or more.  Look for that trend to continue today against the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have won six straight and are 13-2 in their last 15 games overall.  They have won 10 of those games by two runs or more.  They have scored a total of 43 runs in their last five games for an average of 8.6 runs per game.

The Braves have a big advantage on the mound today over the Orioles.  Max Fried is 10-7 with a 3.86 ERA in 20 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three outings.  He'll be opposed by Keegan Akin, who is 0-7 with a 9.29 ERA and 2.065 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.800 WHIP in his last three.

Atlanta is 9-0 in August road games this season and winning by 4.4 runs per game.  The Braves are 15-0 in Fried's last 15 August starts and winning by 4.4 runs per game.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Friday.

20* Patriots/Eagles NFLX No-Brainer on New England ML -115

No analysis for preseason.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Astros -158

The Houston Astros have dropped four straight, including the first three games of this series to the Kansas City Royals in upset fashion.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated in Game 4 today to avoid the sweep and I think they get the job done.

The Astros have a big advantage on the mound today with Luis Garcia over Mike Minor.  Garcia is 9-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He has great stuff with 127 K's in 105 2/3 innings.

Minor is 8-11 with a 5.35 ERA in 24 starts this season.  He is 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in 13 career starts against the Astros.  That includes 0-2 with a 6.64 ERA in his last four starts against the Astros in which he has allowed 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 20 1/3 innings and his teams have gone 0-4 in those four games.

The Royals are 44-90 in their last 134 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Kansas City is 23-61 in its last 84 vs. AL West opponents.  Bet the Astros Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +105

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 49-40 in their last 89 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And now they'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Angels.

The Tigers should feast on Jose Quintana, who is 0-3 with a 7.22 ERA and 1.931 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.49 ERA and 2.271 WHIP in four road starts.  Matt Manning has been at his best at home for the Tigers, going 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA in four home starts this season.

Detroit is 9-1 vs. a starting pitcher that is winless after 5-plus starts over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 33-29 at home this season.  Detroit is 4-0 in its last four vs. a left-handed starter.  The Tigers are 7-2 in their last nine home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Tigers Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-111)

The Houston Astros come in highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight overall, including the first two games of this series to the Kansas City Royals in upset fashion.  Look for them to bounce back with a win by two runs or more in Game 3 due to their advantage on the mound.

Ace Zack Greinke takes the ball for the Astros.  He is 11-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.121 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Greinke has been at his best on the road, going a perfect 6-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.887 WHIP in 11 starts away from home.  He has posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in five career starts against Kansas City as well.

He'll be opposed by Brady Singer, who is 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Singer has been at his worst at home, going 2-5 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.699 WHIP in 12 home starts.  He has been roughed up of late, going 0-2 with a 19.05 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 22 base runners in 5 2/3 innings.

Plays against home teams (Kansas City) - a poor hitting team with a .260 average or worse against a top level starting pitcher with a sub 3.60 ERA and a sub 1.300 WHIP in the American League, with a starting pitcher with a winning percentage less than 30% are 32-4 (88.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Tigers -119

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 49-38 in their last 874 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they are rested and ready to go tonight after having yesterday off.

The Angels aren't rested as they had to play yesterday in a make up game against the New York Yankees.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that 2-1 defeat.  Runs have been hard to come by for the Angels during a 2-5 stretch over their last seven games in which they have averaged just 2.1 runs per game.

The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Angels as well.  Casey Mize is 6-6 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Dylan Bundy, who is 2-9 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in 17 starts.  Bundy has never beaten the Tigers, going 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in three career starts against them.

The Tigers are 14-5 in their last 19 home games.  Detroit is 17-4 in its last 21 Tuesday games.  The Tigers are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss.  Detroit is 7-0 in its last seven games after allowing 5 runs or more in its previous game.  The Tigers are 7-1 in their last eight games following an off day.  Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100)

The Baltimore Orioles are 0-12 in their last 12 games overall and have been outscored 113-36 in the process.  They have lost all 12 games by two runs or more and 11 of them by three runs or more.  Look for that trend to continue today against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays are built to have openers like Drew Rasmussen shut down the opponent in the early innings and their dominant bullpen take over in the middle innings.  That was the case yesterday in their 9-2 win over the Orioles.  And it should be more of the same today.

John Means is definitely Baltimore's best starter, but even he has struggled of late.  Means is 1-4 with a 6.06 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 22 earned runs and 13 homers in 32 2/3 innings.  Means is 0-1 with a 5.51 ERA in three starts against the Rays in 2021 alone, allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 1/3 innings with the Orioles losing all three of his starts by two runs or more.

Tampa Bay is 12-1 against Baltimore this season with 10 wins by two runs or more.  The Orioles are 1-25 after a 5-game span where the bullpen had a 7.00 ERA or worse this season.  They are losing by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  Tampa Bay is 27-6 in its last 33 home meetings with Baltimore.  Take the Rays on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-125)

The Toronto Blue Jays rank 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 2nd in average, 1st in OPS and 1st in homers this season.  They have just the type of offense that you want to back on the Run Line.

The Washington Nationals are just 1-12 in their last 13 games overall and clearly packed it in at the trade deadline.  It won't get any easier for them with Erick Fedde on the mound.  Fedde is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in 19 starts this season.

Alek Manoah has been the best starter for the Blue Jays this season right alongside Robbie Ray.  Manoah is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 11 starts with 71 K's in 59 innings.  He'll shut down the Nationals tonight.

Washington is 0-8 in its last eight home games vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage of .440 or better and losing by 4.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Nationals are 4-18 as home dogs of +100 or higher this season.  The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games.  The Nationals are 0-7 in their last seven home games.  Washington is 8-25 in its last 33 games overall.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)

The Baltimore Orioles are 0-11 in their last 11 games overall and have been outscored 104-34 in the process.  They have lost all 11 games by two runs or more and 10 of them by three runs or more.  Look for that trend to continue today against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays come in highly motivated for a victory after losing two straight at Minnesota over the weekend.  Now they are back home after a nine-game road trip.  Collin McHugh takes the ball and has a 0.00 ERA and 0.450 WHIP in four starts this season spanning 6 2/3 innings.

Matt Harvey is one of my favorite starters to fade in all of baseball.  Harvey is 6-11 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  He has faced the Rays once in his career and that came back on May 18th of this season.  Harvey allowed 6 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings of a 13-6 loss.

Tampa Bay is 11-1 against Baltimore this season with nine wins by two runs or more.  Baltimore is 7-34 vs. AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays are 59-18 in their last 77 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Tampa Bay is 26-6 in its last 32 home meetings with Baltimore.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-150)

The Baltimore Orioles are 0-10 in their last 10 games overall and have been outscored 98-32 in the process.  They have lost all 10 games by two runs or more and nine of them by three runs or more.  Look for that trend to continue today against the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox have a big advantage on the mound today with Eduardo Rodriquez. He simply owns the Orioles, going 11-5 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 19 career starts against them. That includes 8-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his last nine starts against Baltimore as he has allowed just 13 earned runs in 55 1/3 innings.

The Red Sox are a perfect 9-0 in Rodriquez's last nine starts against the Orioles with eight wins by two runs or more. He'll be opposed by Keegan Akin, who is 0-6 with a 9.57 ERA and 2.045 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-4 with a 10.21 ERA and 2.148 WHIP in six road starts.

The Orioles are 11-42 in their last 53 games following a loss.  The Red Sox are 74-31 in their last 104 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  Boston is 44-19 in the last 63 meetings.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Sunday.

25* NFLX Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers ML -140

No analysis for preseason.

15* Browns/Jaguars NFL Network ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville ML -145

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-160)

The Baltimore Orioles are 0-9 in their last nine games overall and have been outscored 82-30 in the process.  They have lost all nine games by two runs or more and eight of them by three runs or more.  Look for that trend to continue today against the Boston Red Sox.

Fenway Park will be rocking today with the much-anticipated return of Chris Sale, who has dominated in the minors leading up to this start.  Sale is 8-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.004 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Orioles.

He'll be opposed by Jorge Lopez, who is 3-12 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.602 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 2-7 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Lopez is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA in two career starts against Boston, both of which have come in 2021.

The Orioles are 11-41 in their last 52 games following a loss.  The Red Sox are 73-31 in their last 103 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  Boston is 43-19 in the last 62 meetings.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Cowboys/Cardinals NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona ML -125

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -135

The St. Louis Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by a single run.  They are making a run at the playoffs here late in the season, and now they get their ace back on the mound in Jack Flaherty for the stretch run.

Flaherty is 8-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He has never lost to the Royals, going 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.579 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 17 innings with 19 K's.

Mike Minor is 8-10 with a 5.39 ERA in 23 starts this season for the Royals.  He is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six career starts against the Cardinals.  He faced St. Louis on August 6th earlier this month and allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 9 base runners in 5 innings.

The Cardinals are 35-17 in their last 52 games as favorites.  St. Louis is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings.  The Cardinals are 37-15 in their last 52 meetings in Kansas City.  The Royals are 41-87 in their last 128 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +105

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 48-36 in their last 84 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they should not be underdogs to the Cleveland Indians tonight.

The Indians have lost three straight and are 3-7 in their last 10 games overall after getting blasted 17-0 by the A's yesterday.  It won't get any easier for them with Zach Plesac on the mound, who is 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in his last three starts.  Plesac has posted a 5.40 ERA in seven road starts this season as well.

Tyler Alexander has been solid for the Tigers this season, going 1-0 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in seven starts.  One of those starts came against the Indians on August 7th in his last start where he pitched 5 1/3 innings of a 2-1 victory as a +135 road underdog.

The Tigers are 6-1 in Alexander's seven starts this season.  Detroit is 6-0 in Alexander's six starts vs. a team with a losing record this season.  The Tigers are 13-3 in their last 16 home games, including 8-1 in their last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Tigers Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto Blue Jays -129

The Toronto Blue Jays are 12-3 in their last 15 games overall while outscoring opponents 88-41 in the process.  The Blue Jays rank 2nd in baseball in runs per 9 innings, 2nd in average, 1st in OPS and 1st in home runs this season.  They have one of the most potent lineups in baseball, and that is showing of late.

The Angels have lost four of their last five and just can't get any momentum playing without two of their best hitters in Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.  Shohei Ohtani has done his best to make up for it, but even he is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Jose Berrios has been a new man since getting new life after the trade to Toronto.  Berrios is 1-1 with a 0.47 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just one earned run and 14 base runners in 19 innings.  One of those starts came against the Angels on July 24th when he fired seven innings without allowing a single earned run and only three base runners.

Toronto is 38-15 in its last 53 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 25-8 against losing teams this season.  The Angels are 1-5 in their last six home games.  Los Angeles is 2-7 in its last nine games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Angels are 30-63 in their last 93 games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or lower.  Roll with the Blue Jays Thursday.

20* Washington/Patriots NFLX No-Brainer on Washington -2

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +133

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 47-36 in their last 83 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they should not be underdogs to the Baltimore Orioles tonight.

The Orioles are 0-7 in their last seven games overall and have been outscored 68-25 in the process.  That's why they should not be favorites, let alone this big of favorites even though I'm conceding they have the advantage on the mound with John Means over Matt Manning.

Manning held the Orioles to 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings on July 31st in his last start against them.  Another performance like that will be more than enough for him and the Tigers to come away with victory tonight.

Baltimore is 1-23 after a 5-game span where the bullpen had a 7.00 ERA or worse this season.  It is losing by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Tigers Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall while outscoring opponents 78-39 in the process.  The Blue Jays rank 2nd in baseball in runs per 9 innings, 1st in average and 1st in OPS this season.  They have one of the most potent lineups in baseball, and that is showing of late.

Injuries have really hit the Angels hard with the losses of Trout, Rendon and Walsh.  They are now at a big disadvantage on the mound tonight with Dylan Bundy, who is 2-8 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in eight home starts.

Alek Manoah has been nothing short of spectacular for the Blue Jays.  He is 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 10 starts this season while allowing just 34 hits with 60 K's in 52 1/3 innings.  He will shut down the Angels tonight.

Toronto is 12-1 vs. a starting pitcher with a winning percentage of less than 20% over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Angels are 30-62 in thier last 92 games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or lower.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -112

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 46-36 in their last 82 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they should be bigger favorites over the lowly Baltimore Orioles in Game 2 of this series tonight.

The Tigers won 9-4 in Game 1 last night and it should be more of the same tonight.  They have the advantage on the mound with Tarik Skubal, who is 7-9 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 20 starts this season with 116 K's in 104 2/3 innings.

The Orioles are 0-6 in their last six games overall and have been outscored 63-23 in the process.  It won't get any better for them today with Matt Harvey taking the ball.  Harvey is 6-10 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Baltimore is 1-22 after a 5-game span where the bullpen had a 7.00 ERA or worse this season.  It is losing by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Tigers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-114)

The Chicago White Sox are 4-1 in their last five games overall while outscoring the opposition 35-14 in the process.  They have a big advantage on the mound over the Minnesota Twins today that should have them winning this game by two runs or more.

Lance Lynn is a Cy Young contender at 10-3 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the White Sox.  He has never lost to the Twins, going 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in five career starts against them.  That includes 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts in 2021, allowing just 4 earned runs in 24 innings to the Twins.

The White Sox should feast on Bailey Ober, who is 1-1 with a 4.99 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.34 ERA in six home starts.  Ober is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in four career starts against the White Sox as well.

The White Sox are 54-23 in their last 77 games as favorites.  Chicago is 57-25 in its last 82 vs. a team with a losing record.  The White Sox are 14-5 in the last 19 meetings.  The Twins are 1-9 in their last 10 games following a win.  Roll with the White Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -118

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 45-36 in their last 81 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they should be bigger favorites over the lowly Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of this series tonight.

The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound with ace Casey Mize, who is 6-6 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Mize faced the Orioles on July 29th in his lone career start against them, pitching 7 innings without allowing a single earned run in a 6-2 victory.

The Orioles are 0-5 in their last five games overall and have been outscored 54-19 in the process.  It won't get any better for them today with Keegan Akin taking the ball.  Akin is still in search of his first win this season, going 0-5 with an 8.82 ERA and 1.990 WHIP in eight starts while allowing 33 earned runs and 67 base runners in 33 2/3 innings.

Baltimore is 1-21 after a 5-game span where the bullpen had a 7.00 ERA or worst this season, losing by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games following an off day.  Detroit is 7-2 in its last nine games as a favorite.  Baltimore is 12-40 in its last 52 games following a loss.  Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

15* American League ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -144

The Chicago White Sox have now won four straight games while outscoring the opposition 32-10 in the process.  They beat the Twins 11-1 in Game 1 yesterday and should put it on them again in Game 2 Tuesday.  Eloy Jimenez has 4 homers and 10 RBI's in his last two games to show what made him one of the top prospects in baseball.

Dallas Keuchel has been solid this season for the White Sox at 7-5 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 starts.  Keuchel owns the Twins, going 6-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 10 career starts against them.

Griffin Jax is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He is 1-1 with a 4.19 ERA in four starts this season, but has performed well in his last three.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start, so the Twins have been limiting him and will have to use their awful bullpen (4.87 ERA) early in this one.

Chicago is 34-12 (+15.7 Units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The White Sox are 57-24 in their last 81 vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 54-22 in its last 76 games as a favorite.  The White Sox are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.  Roll with the White Sox Tuesday.