Sports Picks & Predictions

15* Angels/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +155

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Oakland A's. They want revenge from getting shut out by Bartolo Colon just five days ago on July 21st.

Not only that, Los Angeles cannot afford to lose to Oakland. It trails the A's by 10 games in the AL West race. It has done a good job of taking advantage in this series, winning three out of four vs. Oakland since the All-Star Break.

Jerome Williams has been at this best on the road this season as the Angels are 4-1 in his five road starts. Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Los Angeles is 8-2 in its last 10 road games vs. a right-handed start. Roll with the Angels Friday.

15* AL Friday Mound Mismatch on Kansas City Royals -118

The Kansas City Royals have a big edge on the mound tonight with James Shields over Jose Quintana. Plus, they have won three straight coming in, while the White Sox have lost six of their last nine to drop to 40-59 on the year.

Shields should have better than a 4-7 record this season, but he simply hasn't gotten the run support. He has posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 21 starts, including a 2.74 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 11 road starts.

Shields has faced the White Sox three times this season. He has given up just five earned runs over 19 innings for a 2.37 ERA. He has also struck out 19 batters while giving up 20 base runners in those three outings.

Chicago is 1-10 (-12.0 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games this season. The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Kansas City is 5-0 in Shields' last 5 starts as a favorite. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Kansas City. Take the Royals Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -109

The Baltimore Orioles have lost three straight coming in and now sit four games behind the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East division. Needless to say, they'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series Friday.

Chris Tillman has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 12-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 20 starts. Baltimore is 15-5 (+10.6 units) in those starts, meaning $1,000/game bettors would be up $10,600.

Tillman is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in seven career starts against Boston. He has gone 2-0 with a miniscule 0.93 ERA in his last three starts against the Red Sox, yielding just two earned runs over 19 1/3 innings.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 6-0 in Tillman's last 6 starts as a favorite. The Orioles are 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 home starts. Baltimore is 11-1 in Tillman's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -113

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball right now. They have won six straight games while going 23-5 in their last 28 games overall. They should be a much heavier home favorite tonight against the Cincinnati Reds because of it.

That's especially the case with Zach Greinke on the mound. The right-hander has gone 8-2 with a 3.36 ERA in 15 starts this season, and he simply doesn't lose at home. Greinke is 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA in seven home starts this year.

If that's not enough, Greinke comes into this game pitching perhaps as well as he has his entire career over a 3-game stretch. He is 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing one earned run in 22 innings. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Mat Latos has posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP in his last three starts.

Greinke is a ridiculous 33-3 (+28.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is also an amazing 21-1 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Dodgers Thursday.

15* Angels/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +101

The Los Angeles Angels really need to win this series with the Oakland A's to make up some ground in the AL West Division. They took two out of three from the A's in their first series out of the All-Star Break, and I look for them to take Game 1 tonight.

C.J. Wilson is having a tremendous year at 10-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 20 starts, including 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA in his last three. Wilson is 8-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 15 career starts against Oakland. That includes a dominant showing in his most recent start on July 20, pitching 8 1/3 shutout innings of a 2-0 Los Angeles victory.

Daniel Straily is simply no match for Wilson. He has not fared well in the past against Los Angeles, either. Straily is 1-1 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in four career starts against the Angels.

Wilson is 25-10 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 1-5 in Straily's last 6 starts vs. American League West opponents. Take the Angels Thursday.

15* NL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +166

The Philadelphia Phillies get the nod Thursday as a massive road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. They do not want to get swept in this series, therefore they come into this contest highly motivated for a victory.

Philadelphia will be giving the ball to the underrated Kyle Kendrick, who is 9-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Kendrick has owned St. Louis, going 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.234 WHIP in seven career starts against the Cardinals.

Lance Lynn is simply getting too much respect from the books in this one. Lynn has gone 11-5 this season in spite of a 4.13 ERA over 20 starts. He has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.776 WHIP in his last three outings.

Philadelphia is a very profitable 24-18 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. St. Louis is 4-13 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after a win by 6 runs or more this season. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Roll with Philadelphia Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +142

The San Diego Padres are showing tremendous value Wednesday. I backed them with success as a dog Tuesday, and I'll continue to do so Wednesday for many of the same reason.

Milwaukee's season is officially over with the suspension of Ryan Braun. It is also without arguably its other two best hitters in Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Also, Carlos Gomez is banged up. The Brewers simply will not receive much run support the rest of the way.

While I will admit that the Brewers have the edge on the mound in this one, I believe the Padres' edge at the plate will make up for it. They pounded out 15 hits last night, and they are hitting .308 with seven homers and 34 runs scored in their last six games. Milwaukee is hitting .206 over its last 11 games, and it has just eight hits in the first two games of this series.

Milwaukee is 1-12 (-11.9 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 4-17 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Milwaukee is 3-12 (-11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. Take the Padres Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia Phillies +160

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. After losing their last three games overall, the Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

St. Louis doesn't have the kind of edge on the mound that would warrant this ridiculous line. Jake Westbrook has been very lucky to post a 2.88 ERA on the season in spite of his huge 1.402 WHIP. He's being overvalued here. Westbrook has posted a 4.41 ERA and 1.622 WHIP in six career starts against Philadelphia.

John Lannan is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander has been dominant of late, going 1-0 with a miniscule 0.56 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run and 11 base runners over 16 innings. Lannan is also 2-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in seven career starts against St. Louis.

Philadelphia is 14-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. St. Louis is 37-44 (-22.1 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 38-17 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Philadelphia Wednesday.

25* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Nationals -136

The Washington Nationals Wednesday represent one of my strongest selections for the entire 2013 MLB season. I look for them to crush the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight to put an end to their current 5-game losing streak.

Ace Stephen Strasburg will be highly motivated to help his team put an end to this skid. Strasburg has quietly been dominant once again this season, but we are getting him at a discount because he doesn't have the same reputation as last year due to his 5-7 record.

I'll gladly take advantage and back Strasburg at this generous price. The right-hander has posted a 2.97 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including a miniscule 1.75 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Francisco Liriano is being overvalued in this spot tonight. He has pitched well in limited action for Pittsburgh this season, but I look for him to wear down as the season goes on. Liriano showed signed of that in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of a 3-5 loss to Cincinnati.

Strasburg is 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. The Nationals are 3-0 in those contests, meaning that they have never lost with Strasburg starting against the Pirates. Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* Indians/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +104

The Cleveland Indians are showing solid value as a road underdog to the Seattle Mariners Tuesday. They trail the Detroit Tigers by just 2.5 games in the AL Central race, so it's obviously important for them to bounce back from a Game 1 loss to the Mariners.

Zach McAllister makes his return from the disabled list tonight from a strained finger. He had been pitching well before getting hurt, going 4-5 with a 3.43 ERA over 11 starts in 2013. McAllister has posted a 2.03 ERA in his last two starts against Seattle, allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners over 13 1/3 innings.

Erasmo Ramirez is making just his second start of the season for Seattle. The first didn't go so well. Ramirez allowed 7 earned runs and 10 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 7-8 loss to the Boston Red Sox on July 11th.

The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. American League West opponents. Cleveland is 19-8 in its last 27 vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 4-1 in McAllister's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Mariners are 0-4 in Ramirez's last 4 starts. Roll with the Indians Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-110)

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value on the run line Tuesday at nearly even money. While I believe the Phillies have an excellent chance to win this game, I'll take the extra run for some insurance for the right price.

Jonathan Pettibone has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 16 starts, and the Phillies are 10-6 (+5.9 units) in those outings. Pettibone is also 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts.

Rookie Shelby Miller got off to a tremendous start in the first half of the season for St. Louis, but he's already showing signs of wearing down. Miller is 1-1 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.973 WHIP in his last three starts.

Philadelphia is 39-17 against the run line (+22.5 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis is 3-17 against the run line (-14.1 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 16-5 against the run line (+11.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Take Philadelphia on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +112

The Milwaukee Brewers' season is officially over. Ryan Braun has been suspended for the final 65 games of the season. Aramis Ramirez remains on the DL, Corey Hart isn't coming back, and Carlos Gomez is banged up.

I'll gladly back the San Diego Padres at this price Tuesday. Tyson Ross has pitched well this season for the Padres, and he'll have no problem shutting down this depleted Milwaukee lineup.

Ross has posted a 3.60 ERA over 45 innings pitched in 2013. He sports a 3.86 ERA in three starts, including a 3.11 ERA in two road starts. He'll be up against Donovan Hand, who is also making just his 4th start of the season for the Brewers.

Milwaukee is 1-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 9-25 (-15.5 Units) against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. Milwaukee is 4-16 (-12.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Bet the Padres Tuesday.

15* Indians/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +102

The Cleveland Indians are quietly having a solid season at 52-46. They are right in the thick of the AL Central race. I look for them to take care of business in Game 1 of this series with Seattle considering the edge they have on the mound.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been at his best away from home this year. The right-hander has gone 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 road starts this season, and the Indians are 7-3 in those 10 contests.

I'll gladly fade the washed-up Aaron Harang in this one. Seattle's right-hander is 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 stars this season. He is coming off one of his worst starts of the year in which he allowed 7 earned runs and 11 base runners over 5 innings of a 4-11 loss to Boston.

Seattle is 0-7 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Harang is 0-7 (-9.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 0-5 in Harang's last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Indians are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing Cleveland. Take the Indians Monday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -120

I'll gladly back the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers (53-44) over the last-place Chicago White Sox (39-56) in Game 1 of this series Monday. This is a very generous price to get the Tigers with Max Scherzer on the mound.

Scherzer is having a Cy Young-caliber season at 13-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 0.979 WHIP with 152 K's over 129 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been at his best on the road, going 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.827 WHIP in nine starts away from home.

While Chris Sale is having a solid season for Chicago, the left-hander is just 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in four career starts against Detroit. Meanwhile, Scherzer is 5-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 13 career starts against the White Sox.

The Tigers are 22-5 in Scherzer's last 27 starts vs. American League Central opponents. Detroit is 10-1 in Scherzer's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 15-32 in their last 47 games overall. Chicago is 1-8 in its last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Tigers Monday.

15* AL Monday Mound Mismatch on Baltimore Orioles -115

The Baltimore Orioles (56-43) are fighting hard to keep pace in the AL East race. Buck Showalter's team has gone 7-1 in its last 8 games overall, which includes a perfect 5-0 record against a very good Texas team during this span.

Kansas City has lost six of its last eight heading into this one, and another loss is likely tonight with Wade Davis on the mound. The right-hander has been atrocious, going 4-8 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.753 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 0-3 with an 11.77 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

Scott Feldman was quietly a very good trade acquisition for the Orioles before the deadline. The right-hander has gone 8-7 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Feldman is 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in seven career starts against Kansas City.

Feldman is 8-1 (+7.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Royals are 0-4 in Davis' last 4 starts overall. These three trends combine for a 17-1 system in support of Baltimore. Roll with the Orioles Monday.

15* Yankees/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +125

The New York Yankees need this series against Boston to get some momentum going in the AL East race after the All-Star Break. With the edge they have on the mound, I look for them to take Game 3 tonight.

C.C. Sabathia hasn't been at his best this season, but he's still 9-8 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.234 WHIP in 20 starts this year. Sabathia has gone 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last three starts against Boston, allowing 7 earned runs over 20 1/3 innings while striking out 22.

Ryan Dempster is 5-8 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has really struggled of late, going 0-0 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.935 WHIP in his last three starts.

Dempster has never beaten New York. In fact, he is 0-5 with a 7.29 ERA and 2.010 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees. His teams are 0-6 in those six contests. Roll with the Yankees Sunday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels +109

I've backed the Los Angeles Angels with success in the first two games of this series with Oakland. I'm going to continue to stick with them as I have stated that they need to sweep this series to get back in the AL West race. They'll be highly motivated to do so Sunday.

Jerome Williams has held his own this season for Los Angeles. He has gone 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA on the season over 92 innings pitched. He struggled heading into the All-Star Break, but I believe that time off will be good for him as he regroups and gets ready to pitch this very important game Sunday.

Williams is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA in seven career starts against Oakland. The A's are 5-12 (-8.5 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season. The Angels are 8-1 (+7.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons. Bet Los Angeles Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +175

The Houston Astros are showing tremendous value as a massive home underdog to the lowly Seattle Mariners Sunday. After losing the first two games of this series, the Astros will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3.

Jordan Lyles has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA in 14 starts this year.

Lyles had arguably his best start of the season against Seattle on June 12. He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing just 5 base runners and striking out 10 in a 6-1 Houston victory.

The Mariners are 3-10 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series. Seattle is 6-14 in Hernandez's last 20 starts during game 3 of a series. Hernandez is 3-11 (-9.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Astros Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -140

The Los Angeles Angels realize they need to sweep this series with the Oakland A's if they want to get back into the AL West race. They are off to a good start with a 4-1 victory in Game 1 Friday, getting to within 10 games of the division lead.

With the edge the Angels have on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back them tonight. C.J. Wilson is 9-6 with a 3.37 ERA in 19 starts this season, 4-3 with a 2.51 ERA in nine home starts, and 2-1 with a 0.87 ERA in his last three starts.

Daniel Straily is 6-2 with a 4.27 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 4.77 ERA in eight road starts. While Wilson has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 14 career starts against Oakland, Straily sports a 7.87 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in three career starts against Los Angeles. He has allowed a whopping 8 home runs in those three starts.

The Angels are 15-2 in their last 17 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Wilson's last 4 starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. The A's are 0-4 in thier last 4 games as an underdog. These three trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Mound Mismatch on Miami Marlins +155

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value as a massive road underdog to the lowly Milwaukee Brewers Saturday. Milwaukee is just 39-56 on the season, and it doesn't even have the edge on the mound in this one despite being so heavily favored.

Nathan Eovaldi is quietly having an excellent season for Miami in limited action. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in five starts in 2013, allowing just 10 earned runs, 19 hits and 2 homers over 30 2/3 innings.

Yovani Gallardo is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander has gone 7-8 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in 20 starts, 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.482 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 1-1 with a 9.0 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last three starts.

Eovaldi has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee, not once allowing more than 2 earned runs in any of those three outings. Milwaukee is 28-48 (-19.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Brewers are 6-16 in their last 22 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Pirates +135

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been known for their second-half struggles over the past two seasons. After losing Game 1 of this series to the Cincinnati Reds, I look for the Pirates to dig deep and come back with a Game 2 victory behind ace A.J. Burnett.

Burnett has been rock-solid once again in 2013. The right-hander has posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 16 starts this year, striking out 110 batters in 100 innings. Burnett is also 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.

Matt Latos has really struggled of late for Cincinnati. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.860 WHIP in his last three starts. Burnett has posted a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts against Cincinnati, allowing just 6 earned runs over 20 innings.

The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Pittsburgh is 5-1 in Burnett's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. Take the Pirates Saturday.

20* NL DOG OF THE MONTH on Miami Marlins +145

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers Friday. They won three of their last four games heading into the All-Star game, and I look for them to carry that momentum into their first game back.

Milwaukee (38-56) has no business being this heavily favored tonight. That's especially the case considering it doesn't even have the edge on the mound, and that it has played poorly all season.

Kyle Lohse is 5-7 with a 3.67 ERA in 19 starts this season for the Brewers, while Jacob Turner is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA in eight starts this season for the Marlins. Turner allowed 3 earned runs and 7 base runners over 7 innings of a 5-4 Miami win in his lone start against Milwaukee in 2013.

The Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day. The Brewers are 4-17 in their last 21 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee is 0-6 in Lohse's last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Marlins Friday.

15* Angels/Mariners AL Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +125

The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as a road underdog to the Seattle Mariners this afternoon. After losing the first two games of this series, the Angels will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.

Hisashi Iwakuma is certainly having a heck of a season overall for Seattle. However, he has come back down to reality of late, going 0-1 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs and a whopping 7 home runs over 17 innings.

Joe Blanton hasn't posted great numbers this year, but he is facing an opponent he has had some nice success against in the past. Blanton is 8-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Mariners.

The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 8-3 in its last 11 road games overall. The Mariners are 2-10 in their last 12 during game 3 of a series. Seattle is 1-4 in Iwakuma's last 5 starts overall. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -119

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday. They should be a much heavier favorite given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Scott Feldman has gone 7-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He has been at his best at home, going 4-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in seven home starts.

Josh Johnson just hasn't been able to return to form since having Tommy John surgery. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Johnson has been at his worst on the road, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.608 WHIP in four starts.

The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 games following a win. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Johnson's last 4 road starts. Toronto is 0-4 in Johnson's last 4 starts as an underdog. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Orioles. Plus, Baltimore is 45-18 in its last 63 games following a loss. Take the Orioles Sunday.

20* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals +110

The Kansas City Royals are highly motivated for a victory today. They have lost four straight games and certainly do not want to go into the All-Star Break on a 5-game losing streak.

Ace James Shields is just the perfect guy to stop the bleeding. Shields has pitched very well this year, going 4-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 19 starts. He has been at his best away from home, going 3-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 10 road starts.

Ubaldo Jimenez is no match for Shields in this one. Jimenez is 7-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 18 starts this year. He has been at his worst at home, going 3-3 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in eight starts.

The Royals are 8-0 in Shields' last 8 starts overall. Kansas City is 7-0 in Shields' last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Royals are 5-0 in Shields' last 5 starts vs. American League Central opponents. The Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Kansas City. Bet the Royals Sunday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants +104

The San Francisco Giants are showing awesome value as an underdog to the San Diego Padres Saturday. Off an emphatic 10-1 win yesterday, the Giants are back on track and wanting to sweep this series heading into the All-Star Break.

While Tim Lincecum hasn't been at his best this season, he has still been better than San Diego starter Edinson Volquez. Lincecum is 4-9 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 18 starts, while Volquez is 6-7 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in 19 starts.

Lincecum is 11-6 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 24 career starts against San Diego. In two starts against the Padres in 2013, Lincecum has only allowed two earned runs over 13 2/3 innings. Volquez is 2-1 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in eight career starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 25-5 (+16.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 home games. San Diego is 1-5 in Volquez's last 6 home starts. Bet the Giants Saturday.

15* Rangers/Tigers AL Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +150

The Texas Rangers are highly motivated for a victory Saturday. They have lost three straight coming in, so they'll be putting a little more into this one to try and put an end to this brief skid.

Max Scherzer is the most overvalued pitcher in the league right now. That's because he is off to a 13-0 start this season, but he's not as good as that record would indicate. In fact, he has an 8-0 record at home despite a sub-par 4.01 ERA.

Texas' Derek Holland has quietly been one of the best starters in the league this year. The left-hander has gone 7-4 with a 3.19 ERA in 18 starts, 5-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 10 road starts, and 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three outings.

Holland is 44-19 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 40-18 in Holland's last 58 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 14-3 in Holland's last 17 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game. The Rangers are 83-40 in their last 123 games following a loss. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Rangers Saturday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +137

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value Saturday as a nice-sized road underdog to the Cleveland Indians. After losing three straight heading into this one, there's no question the Royals will be motivated for a victory tonight.

I like their chances with the underrated Jeremy Guthrie getting the ball. Guthrie has gone 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 18 starts this season, and Kansas City is a very profitable 11-7 (+4.6 units) in those 18 contests.

I'll gladly fade Cleveland's Scott Kazmir, who is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. Kazmir has gone 4-4 with a 4.74 ERA in seven starts and eight relief appearances this year. Kazmir is 3-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in 12 career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 17-4 in Guthrie's last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas City is 21-8 in Guthrie's last 29 starts overall. The Royals are 13-3 in Guthrie's last 16 starts vs. American League Central opponents. Roll with the Royals Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +215

I cashed in the Houston Astros +275 Friday in a 2-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. Once again, the Astros are showing too good of value to pass up Saturday as more than a 2-to-1 underdog to the Rays.

With this line, you would think that Tampa has the edge on the mound, but that's simply not the case. Dallas Keuchel is 4-4 with a 4.41 ERA as a starter this season in 11 outings, and the Astros have gone a very profitable 6-5 (+6.4 units) in those contests.

Kuechel has been at his best on the road this season, posting a 3.64 ERA in five starts away from home. I'll gladly fade Tampa Bay's Roberto Hernandez, who is 4-10 with a 4.92 ERA in 17 starts this year. The Rays are 6-11 (-6.7 units) in those 17 contests.

Hernandez is 1-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. Hernandez is 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. Take the Astros Saturday.

15* Angels/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -112

The Los Angeles Angels have made a nice run over the past month to get to 44-46 on the season. They have won 11 of their last 14 games overall and had a day off yesterday. Meanwhile, Seattle played yesterday and lost its third straight, allowing a combined 30 runs in the process.

Jerome Williams has pitched fairly well for the Angels this season, going 5-4 with a 4.16 ERA on the season, including 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four road starts. Williams is 4-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in five career starts against Seattle.

In his lone start against the Mariners this season, Williams pitched eight shutout innings of a 12-0 Los Angeles victory on May 21st. Joe Saunders is 7-8 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 18 starts this year for Seattle.

The Mariners are 0-8 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 vs. AL West foes, and 6-0 in Williams' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. These five trends combine for a 34-1 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +275

I'll give the Houston Astros a shot tonight at an absolutely great price. Houston comes in on one days' rest, while Tampa Bay does not. The Rays are simply getting too much respect from the books after having won eight straight and 12 of their last 13 overall.

Houston has called up Jarred Cosart to make his major league debut tonight. He was acquired from Philadelphia in the 2011 Hunter Pence deal, and he has gone 7-4 with a 3.29 ERA with Triple-A Oklahoma City this year. Cosart has struck out 93 batters in 93 innings, and he'll have an advantage tonight as the Rays will not know what to expect from him.

Tampa Bay starter David Price is a woeful 17-20 (-16.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. He is simply being overvalued in this one folks. Roll with the Astros Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -136

The Baltimore Orioles should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays. They have the edge on the mound in this one, and I'll back them at a solid price as a result.

Chris Tillman remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 10-3 with a 3.92 ERA in 18 starts this season. Tillman has gone 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts against Toronto.

I'll gladly fade Blue Jays' starter Mark Buehrle, who is 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Buehrle has been at his worst away from home, going 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in nine road starts.

Toronto is 1-9 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game this season. The Blue Jays are 27-57 in their last 84 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Baltimore is 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts as a favorite. Bet the Orioles Friday.

15* AL Friday Night Line Mistake on Kansas City Royals +140

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value as a nice-sized road underdog to the Cleveland Indians tonight. The Indians are simply getting too much respect from the books tonight in a game that is much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate.

Bruce Chen has been outstanding in relief action this season, and he has earned his first start of the year as a result. Chen has gone 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA while allowing just 9 earned runs over 33 2/3 innings.

Corey Kluber is nowhere near as good as this line would indicate. Kluber has gone 5-5 with a 4.37 ERA in 14 starts this season. The right-hander has posted a 6.48 ERA in three career starts against Kansas City, allowing 12 earned runs over 16 2/3 innings.

Cleveland is 5-22 (-18.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Chen is a very profitable 54-39 (+21.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. The Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. Take Kansas City Friday.

20* Rockies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers. I'll side with the OVER tonight as a result in what I believe will be a slug fest in this NL West showdown.

Both starters have been atrocious this season. Drew Pomeranz is 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.521 WHIP in two starts this year, while Chris Capuano is 2-6 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 10 starts and two relief appearances. Capuano is also 1-4 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.048 WHIP in five home starts.

In his last start against Los Angeles, Pomeranz allowed six runs over 4 innings of an 8-10 loss to the Dodgers. In his last two starts against Colorado, Capuano has allowed 12 runs over 10 1/3 innings.

Each of the last 10 meetings between the Dodgers and Rockies have seen 8 or more combined runs. Both Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are expected to play tonight, making the Rockies' lineup as potent as it can be. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Interleague Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +227

The Houston Astros are showing arguably their best value of the season tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals. They have scored at least 4 runs in each of their last 6 games, and that kind of run support will be enough for the underrated Jordan Lyles.

Lyles clearly isn't getting the respect he deserves from the books tonight. He has gone 4-3 with a 3.87 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in five road starts.

While rookie Shelby Miller is having a solid season overall, he's starting to show signs of wearing down. Miller has gone 1-2 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 24 base runners over 13 1/3 innings of work.

St. Louis is 7-17 (-14.8 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. The Cardinals are 3-12 (-14.3 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 14-11 (+12.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 Wednesday games. Roll with the Astros Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +170

The Minnesota Twins are showing excellent value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays. Minnesota will be highly motivated for a victory after losing the first two games of this series to Tampa.

Kevin Correia has pitched pretty well for the Twins this season. He has gone 6-6 with a 4.19 ERA in 17 starts, and the Twins are 9-8 in those 17 contests. Correia is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA in one career starts against Tampa.

Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander is 8-3 on the season despite sporting a 4.67 ERA over 18 starts. Hellickson has posted a 4.26 ERA in four career starts against Minnesota.

Correia is a very profitable 54-37 (+30.5 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. Minnesota is a ridiculous 17-2 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season. Hellickson is 9-19 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Twins Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Royals/Yankees OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees. I look for both lineups to tee off on their opposing sub-par starters in an absolute slug fest.

Wade Davis is 4-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.751 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 6.81 ERA and 2.081 WHIP in eight road starts. Davis is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in seven career starts against New York. In his lone start against the Yankees this season, Davis allowed 7 earned runs over 5 innings of a 6-11 loss.

Ivan Nova is 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in six starts this season for New York. Nova is 1-1 with a monster 11.88 ERA and 2.641 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City. He has allowed 15 runs, 11 earned, 22 base runners and 3 homers over 8 1/3 innings in those two outings.

The OVER is 5-1 in Royals last 6 during game 3 of a series. The OVER is 4-0 in Nova's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 7-3 in Nova's last 10 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Pirates -116

Off three straight losses, the Pittsburgh Pirates come into tonight's Game 2 with the Oakland A's highly motivated for a victory. I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight to get back in the win column.

Rookie Gerrit Cole has been solid for the Pirates since getting called up. The right-hander has gone 4-1 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts this season while only walking five batters in 29 2/3 innings.

Daniel Straily has struggled for the most part for the A's. The right-hander is 5-2 with a 4.52 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 5.31 ERA in seven road starts. In his last two road starts, Straily has allowed 8 earned runs, 18 base runners and 3 homers over 8 innings of work.

Pittsburgh is 29-16 at home this season. The Pirates are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague games. Pittsburgh is 22-6 in its last 28 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Pirates are 22-8 in their last 30 games following a loss. The A's are 16-38 in their last 54 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Pirates Tuesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -135

The Cincinnati Reds were robbed of a win last night as Carlos Gomez stole a home run away from Joey Votto. I look for them to bounce back in a big way in Game 2 of this series Tuesday due to their edge on the mound.

Rookie Tony Cingrani has been electric in limited action this season. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in eight starts this season. He has struck out 62 batters over 53 innings on the year.

Cingrani will be up against Wily Peralta, who is 5-9 with a massive 5.27 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 18 starts this year, including 3-6 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 10 home starts. The Reds are scoring 4.6 runs/game against right-handed starters, while the Brewers are scoring 3.5 runs/game against lefties.

In two starts against Cincinnati this season, Peralta is 0-2 while allowing nine runs, seven earned, and 16 base runners over 11 1/3 innings. He has never beaten the Reds as the Brewers are 0-3 in his three career starts against them. Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* MLB Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -122

The Los Angeles Angels should be a much heavier favorite over the lowly Chicago Cubs Tuesday. While the Angels had Monday off, the Cubs played the crosstown rival White Sox in an emotional victory yesterday.

Los Angeles comes in playing its best baseball of the season. It has won 10 of its last 12 games overall to get back to just two games below .500 on the year. It is finally starting to play up to its potential.

Joe Blanton has been at his best of late, going 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last three starts while striking out 19 batters over 20 innings. Blanton is also 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in six career starts against Chicago.

Travis Wood is 7-24 (-13.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. The Cubs are 0-8 in Wood's last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. These two trends combine for a 15-0 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +1.5 (+110)

The Houston Astros are showing excellent value Tuesday as an underdog even on the run line against the St. Louis Cardinals. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in a game I believe they could win outright, but I'll take the extra run for some insurance.

Bud Norris isn't getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers in this one. The right-hander has gone 6-7 with a 3.22 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts.

What I really like about Norris is the fact that he has had a ton of success against St. Louis in the past. In fact, Norris is 8-5 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Cardinals. The Astros are 10-5 in those 15 contests while gaining $1,000/game bettors $12,200.

This play falls into a system that is 51-14 (78.5%) against the Run Line over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+135 to -190) (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL), with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games. Take the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Baltimore Orioles -120

After losing four of their last five games overall heading into tonight's showdown with the Texas Rangers, the Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory. I believe they get back on track Tuesday with a much-needed home win.

Zach Britton has pitched very well of late, going 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last two starts overall. He has allowed just three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in games against the Yankees and White Sox. Britton has faced the Rangers once in his career, pitching 7 2/3 shutout innings of a 5-0 Baltimore victory.

Baltimore is 27-9 (+21.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 Tuesday games. The Orioles are 20-6 in their last 26 Tuesday games. Baltimore is 44-17 in its last 61 games following a loss. Roll with the Orioles Tuesday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -107

The Los Angeles Dodgers come into this series with Arizona playing their best baseball of the season. They h ave won 12 of their last 15 games overall. They are finally almost 100% healthy, which is a big reason for their resurgence.

Zach Greinke is 6-2 with a 4.30 ERA in 12 starts this season. He suffered a broken collarbone earlier this season, so he hasn't been his old self. But I have no doubt he is primed for a big second half now that he's healthy.

Randall Delgado isn't nearly as talented as Greinke, and he's getting too much respect here from oddsmakers. Delgado has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 27 innings pitched this season. He's no more than a spot starter in this league.

Greinke is 53-24 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 22-7 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Los Angeles Monday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -109

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Texas Rangers tonight. Baltimore recently traded for underrated starter Scott Feldman, and he'll be motivated to beat his former team tonight.

Feldman is 7-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in six road starts. He was awesome in his Baltimore debut, allowing two earned runs over 6 innings of a 4-2 victory over the Chicago White Sox on July 3.

Feldman has faced his former team this season as a member of the Chicago Cubs. He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing only three base runners in a 9-2 Chicago victory on May 6. He wants to prove to his former team that they should have never let him go.

Baltimore is 11-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. The Orioles are 16-5 in their last 21 home games. Baltimore is 4-0 in its last 4 games as a home favorite. Bet the Orioles Monday.

15* AL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +144

The Cleveland Indians are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Detroit Tigers Monday. Max Scherzer is 13-0 on the season, and the Tigers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight because of it.

Scott Kazmir has been at his best over his last three starts. Cleveland's left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.684 WHIP in his last three outings, allowing just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners over 19 innings of work.

Scherzer has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.349 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Indians, so they clearly have him figured out. Meanwhile, Kazmir sports a 3.79 ERA in 11 career starts against Detroit. In fact, he is 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts against the Tigers, allowing 3 earned runs over 16 2/3 innings.

This play falls into a system that is 73-38 (65.8%, +35.5 Units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (CLEVELAND) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts.

The Tigers are 7-21 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Cleveland is 23-11 in its last 34 home games. The Indians are 5-1 in Kazmir's last 6 home starts. Roll with the Indians Monday.

20* Red Sox/Angels ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -130

The Los Angeles Angels are playing their best baseball of the season having won nine of their last 11 games overall. With ace Jered Weaver on the mound tonight, I look for them to keep rolling and win this Game 3 against the Boston Red Sox to take the series.

Weaver is 2-4 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in nine starts this year. After battling injuries for most of the first half, he is finally healthy and it's starting to show. Weaver is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last two starts against Detroit and St. Louis, allowing two earned runs over 14 innings.

John Lackey has been at his worst away from home this year. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in eight road starts. In his last start against the Angels, Lackey gave up 8 earned runs and 13 base runners over 4 innings of a 0-11 loss.

Weaver is 10-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Weaver is 14-1 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. Weaver is 12-1 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Angels Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +160

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value Sunday as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. They come in playing well having won 10 of their last 15 games overall for their best stretch of baseball this season.

However, after losing the first two games of this series to St. Louis, they will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep and win Game 3 Sunday. With the edge they have on the mound, the Marlins should not be the underdog in this one.

Rookie Jose Fernandez is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.738 WHIP in his last three starts.

Fernandez faced St. Louis on June 14, allowing two earned runs over 7 innings while striking out 10 in a 5-4 Miami victory. Lance Lynn faced the Marlins on June 15 a day later, allowing 7 earned runs and 12 base runners over 5 innings for a 12.60 ERA and 2.400 WHIP.

The Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Miami is 5-0 in its last 5 Sunday games. The Marlins are 5-1 in Fernandez's last 6 starts overall. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing Miami. Take the Marlins Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +155

The Minnesota Twins are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday. After not winning a series north of the border in eight seasons, the Twins will be highly motivated to put an end to that streak by winning Game 3 of this series.

Toronto's Todd Redmond is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. He has only pitched three innings in the big leagues all season, and he doesn't warrant being this heavily favored.

Scott Diamond grew up 50 miles from Toronto and would love to beat his home team. He has had a ton of success against the Blue Jays in the past, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing just two earned runs and 11 base runners over 12 innings.

Minnesota is a very profitable 15-12 (+12.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Toronto is 52-83 (-28.6 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Twins Sunday.

15* Orioles/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on Baltimore +115

The Baltimore Orioles get the call Sunday as a road underdog to the New York Yankees. After losing the first two games of this series to New York by a single run each, the Orioles are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.

While Jason Hammel has posted worse numbers than Hiroki Kuroda this season, the recent head-to-head numbers support this selection. Hammel is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts against New York, allowing just six earned runs over 18 1/3 innings.

Kuroda has faced Baltimore twice since May 22. He has gone 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in those two starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 5 home runs over just 8 innings of work.

Hammel is 7-1 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are 6-2 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Baltimore is 43-17 in its last 60 games following a loss. The Orioles are 5-1 in Hammel's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Yankees are 0-4 in Kuroda's last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. Bet the Orioles Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +127

The Chicago White Sox get the call Saturday as a road underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays. They should not be a dog in this contest given their edge on the mound.

Ace Chris Sale gets the ball for the White Sox in this one. Despite being just 5-7, Sale is having a tremendous season, posting a 2.79 ERA and 0.959 WHIP over 15 starts with 114 strikeouts in 106 1/3 innings.

In his lone career start at Tampa Bay in 2012, Sale allowed one earned run and five base runners over 7 1/3 innings while striking out 15. Matt Moore is 11-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in eight home starts.

The White Sox are 7-1 in Sale's last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. Chicago is 4-1 in Sale's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Rays are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -141

The Detroit Tigers have won four straight heading into Saturday's Game 2 with the Cleveland Indians. I look for them to keep rolling given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Anibal Sanchez returns to the rotation tonight after sitting out the past three weeks with a shoulder injury. Sanchez has gone 6-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland.

Carlos Carrasco is one of the worst starters in baseball. He has gone 0-3 with an 8.17 ERA and 1.934 WHIP in five starts this season. Carrasco has been atrocious against Detroit, going 1-3 with a 9.50 ERA and 2.556 WHIP in four career starts against the Tigers.

The Indians are 1-10 in Carrasco's last 11 starts. Cleveland is 0-7 in Carrasco's last 7 home starts. The Indians are 0-10 in Carrasco's last 10 starts as a home underdog. These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing Detroit. Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Royals -112

The Kansas City Royals are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Oakland A's. After losing Game 1 of this series, I look for the Royals to bounce back due to their edge on the mound.

Ervin Santana is having a great season this year for Kansas City. He has gone 5-5 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 16 starts this year. Santana has owned Oakland, going 14-6 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 25 career starts against the A's.

Jarrod Parker is 6-6 with a 4.11 ERA in 17 starts this season for Oakland. In his lone career start at Kansas City, Parker allowed five runs, four earned, in 4 2/3 innings of a 0-5 loss in August of 2012.

The Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Kansas City is 4-0 in its last 4 games as a favorite. The A's are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games. These three trends combine for a 13-0 system backing Kansas City. Take the Royals Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +170

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have quietly gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall. With the edge they have on the mound tonight, they should not be a huge road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals like they are.

Jacob Turner is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in his last three starts.

Jake Westbrook has been very fortunate to post a 2.95 ERA in 10 starts this season because he has a massive 1.459 WHIP on the year. That ERA cannot stay down given how many runners he is putting on base. In fact, Westbrook has come back down to reality of late, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 10 earned runs in 10 innings.

Westbrook is 4-13 (-13.1 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Miami is 5-1 in Turner's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Marlins are 5-2 in Turner's last 7 starts as an underdog. The Cardinals are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis is 2-9 in Westbrook's last 11 starts vs. National League East. The Cardinals are 0-5 in Westbrook's last 5 Friday starts. Roll with the Marlins Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +182

The Chicago White Sox are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a massive road underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog in this one.

You would think that Tampa Bay had a huge edge on the mound given the line, but that's simply not the case. In fact, I would argue that Chicago has the edge. Dylan Axelrod is 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 16 starts this season, while Jeremy Hellickson is 7-3 with a 4.90 ERA in 17 starts.

Then there's the head-to-head numbers. Axelrod is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in one career start against Tampa Bay, while Hellickson is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago. He has never beaten the White Sox. Take this 100% never lost angle straight to the bank tonight. Bet the White Sox Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -110

The Baltimore Orioles should be a much heavier favorite over the New York Yankees tonight. They have a massive edge on the mound in this one, and I look for them to roll the Yankees as a result.

Miguel Gonzalez is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 6-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in seven road starts. Gonzalez is also 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.921 WHIP in five career starts against New York.

Ivan Nova is simply no match for Gonzalez. New York's right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in five starts this season. Nova is also 3-2 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in eight career starts against Baltimore. In his last three starts against the Orioles, Nova has gone 0-2 with a 10.26 ERA, allowing 19 earned runs over 16 2/3 innings.

The Orioles are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts on grass. The Orioles are 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore is 4-0 in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 in its last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. The Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. These six trends combine for a 28-0 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Friday.

15* Tigers/Indians AL Central ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +120

The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value tonight as a road underdog to the Cleveland Indians. They are rolling right now having won three straight while scoring a combined 24 runs in the process.

While the season numbers would say different, I actually believe that the Tigers have the edge on the mound in this one. That's because Rick Porcello is 6-3 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 17 career starts against Cleveland, while Justin Masterson is 2-7 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in 12 career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 25-10 in their last 35 during game 1 of a series. Detroit is 21-10 in Porcello's last 31 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland. Porcello is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts against Cleveland, allowing 5 earned runs over 16 2/3 innings. Take the Tigers Friday.

15* NL Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers +127

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value Thursday. They are playing their best baseball of the season having won 10 of their last 11 games overall coming in, and they should not be a dog to the Rockies as a result.

Chris Capuano has enjoyed a ton of success away from Los Angeles this season. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in four road starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 22 base runners over 24 innings.

Jhoulys Chacin is 5-2 with a 4.31 ERA in 10 home starts this year for Colorado. The Rockies have really been struggling of late due to the injury to their best hitter, Troy Tulowitzki. They have lost 11 of their last 15 coming in.

The Rockies are 20-43 in their last 63 games vs. a left-handed starter. Colorado is 0-8 in its last 8 Thursday games. The Rockies are 0-8 in their last 8 after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game. With the Dodgers being 10-1 in their last 11 games overall, these last three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Los Angeles tonight. Take the Dodgers Thursday.

20* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Tigers -137

The Detroit Tigers have won the last two games of this series against the Toronto Blue Jays to get back on track following a stretch in which they lost six of eight. I look for them to continue their momentum with another victory Thursday.

With ace Justin Verlander on the mound, this is an easy choice. While he hasn't been at his best thus far, Verlander is still 8-5 with a 3.77 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 3.46 ERA in nine road starts.

Verlander has absolutely owned Toronto in recent starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his last four starts against the Blue Jays, pitching at least 8 innings in all four. He has allowed just 6 earned runs over 34 innings during this stretch.

Verlander is 19-1 (+17.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is winning by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Tigers Thursday.

15* NL Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers -111

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Colorado Rockies tonight. Los Angeles comes in playing its best baseball of the season having won nine of their last 10 games overall heading into this one.

It comes as no surprise that this run is occurring right now due to the fact that this team is finally almost fully healthy. Meanwhile, Colorado remains without its best player in Troy Tulowitzki, which is a big reason why it has lost 10 of its last 14 overall.

I'll gladly back Zach Greinke at this price tonight. The right-hander has gone 5-2 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He has allowed 5 earned runs over 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Colorado for a solid 2.76 ERA.

Greinke is 13-1 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take this combined 27-1 system straight to the bank tonight. Take the Dodgers Wednesday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -114

The Detroit Tigers are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing six of their last eight games coming in. They earned a nice 1-run victory last night, and due to the edge they have on the mound tonight, I look for a blowout victory in Game 3 of this series with Toronto.

Max Scherzer is having a Cy Young-caliber season. The right-hander is 12-0 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 16 starts, including 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in seven road starts. Scherzer is also 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in five career starts against Toronto.

Josh Johnson is no match for Scherzer. Toronto's right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.594 WHIP over nine starts this season. He face Detroit earlier this season on April 11, giving up 6 earned runs over 1 1/3 innings for a 40.60 ERA in a 1-11 loss.

The Tigers are 35-16 in Scherzer's last 51 starts overall. Scherzer is 10-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. Scherzer is 33-12 (+15.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Tigers Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +170

The Arizona Diamondbacks could not possibly be more motivated for a victory than they are tonight. They have lost five straight and eight of their last nine coming in to fall to 42-41 on the season. At this price, I'll give them a shot as they get back in the win column Wednesday.

Matt Harvey is having a great season for New York, but he's simply getting too much respect from the books in this one. After all, the Mets are just 35-45 on the season, and they are scoring a mere 3.4 runs/game at home, while Arizona is scoring 4.5 runs/game on the road.

Randall Delgado has posted a 3.50 ERA in three starts this season for the Diamondbacks, including a 3.00 ERA in his lone road start. Delgado beat the Mets 5-3 in his lone career start against them last year.

The Diamondbacks are 13-5 in their last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Mets are 10-21 in their last 31 home games. New York is 11-28 in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 2-9 in their last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. New York is 1-5 in Harvey's last 6 home starts. Roll with the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

15* Cardinals/Angels Interleague BAILOUT on Los Angeles -120

Rarely will you ever get ace Jered Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels as this small of a home favorite. I'll take advantage and back the home team as they continue playing their best baseball of the season. The Angels have won six straight heading into this one.

Weaver was banged up early in the season which is the biggest reason why he's only 1-4 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in eight starts this year. However, he is coming off one of his best starts, allowing one earned run over 7 innings of a 3-1 victory at Detroit.

Lance Lynn has struggled on the road this season for St. Louis, going 4-2 with a 4.72 ERA over eight starts. In fact, he has allowed 11 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings (7.81 ERA) in his last two road starts which have come against lowly Houston and Miami.

This play falls into a system that is 44-11 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.

Weaver is 14-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. Weaver is 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Mound Mismatch on Arizona Diamondbacks -125

I had the Arizona Diamondbacks last night as they blew a 3-0 lead, and twice blew save opportunities. I'm going to come back with them as they'll be even more hungry for a victory tonight. They have dropped four straight and six of their last seven coming in.

I like Arizona's chances of getting back in the win column considering its edge on the mound. Patrick Corbin has been the most profitable starter to back in the league this season. He has gone 9-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.003 WHIP in 16 starts, and the Diamondbacks are 15-1 (94%) in those 16 contests.

Jeremy Hefner is no match for Corbin. The right-hander has gone 2-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.287 WHIP over 15 starts and one relief appearance in 2013.

Corbin is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. The Mets are 0-8 in Hefner's last 8 starts as a home underdog. Take this combined 19-0 system straight to the bank tonight. Take the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -135

The Detroit Tigers come into this contest with the Toronto Blue Jays highly motivated for a victory. They have lost three straight and six of their last seven to fall 1/2-game behind the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central Division.

Doug Fister is the perfect guy to get them back on track. Fister has gone 6-5 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in eight road starts. He'll be up against the washed-up Chien-Ming Wang, who is 1-1 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in four starts this year.

Fister has absolutely owned Toronto in his last two starts against it. The right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in those two starts, allowing just two earned runs over 16 innings while striking out 14.

The Tigers are 9-3 in Fister's last 12 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Blue Jays are 21-43 in their last 64 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Detroit is 6-2 in its last 8 meetings with Toronto. Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-109)

The Washington Nationals get the call Tuesday on the Run Line as they stay red hot at the plate. They have scored a combined 23 runs over the past two days, and they just got Bryce Harper back in the line-up on Monday.

Ace Stephen Strasburg will shut down the struggling Milwaukee Brewers, who have lost six straight while scoring a mere 2.7 runs/game in the process, and they remain without Ryan Braun. Strasburg has gone 4-6 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in seven home starts.

Milwaukee's Wily Peralta is simply no match for Strasburg. Peralta has gone 5-9 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 17 starts this season to rank as one of the worst starters in baseball in 2013. He is also 0-1 with a 10.11 ERA and 3.371 WHIP in one career start against Washington.

The Brewers are 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee is 15-40 in its last 55 games as a road underdog. The Brewers are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Milwaukee is 0-5 in Peralta's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Roll with Washington Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -108

After getting swept by the Atlanta Braves last series, and losing six of their last seven games overall, the Arizona Diamondbacks head ingot Game 1 of this series with the New York Mets highly motivated for a victory.

Given the edge they have on the mound in this one, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout win tonight. Wade Miley has gone 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 starts this season, 3-5 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 road starts, and 0-2 with a 3.06 ERA in his last three starts.

He has posted much better numbers than Shaun Marcum. New York's right-hander is 1-9 with a 5.46 ERA in 10 starts, including 0-4 with a 6.91 ERA in five home starts. Marcum is also 1-1 with an 8.04 ERA in three career starts against Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in their last 20 games as a road favorite. Marcum is 3-14 (-13.2 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. Arizona is 6-1 in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

New York is 25-51 in its last 76 home games. The Mets are 15-36 in their last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 9-28 in its last 37 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 0-4 in Marcums last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.

15* Giants/Reds ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati -1.5 (+128)

The Cincinnati Reds should have no problem winning by 2-plus runs tonight over the San Francisco Giants. After losing seven of their last nine games overall, the Reds are highly motivated for a victory. I believe they get it tonight do to their edge on the mound.

Bronson Arroyo remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 6-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 16 starts, including 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Arroyo has posted a 2.67 ERA in 12 career starts against San Francisco as well.

Mike Kickham is no more than a spot starter for San Francisco. If he keeps pitching like he has been, he won't last in the rotation for very long. Kickham has gone 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA and 2.089 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs, 16 base runners and 3 homers over 7 2/3 innings.

The Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall while scoring just 2.4 runs/game in the process. San Francisco is 7-19 in its last 26 road games. The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is 62-29 in its last 91 vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 8-0 in Arroyo's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Reds on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Monday Mound Mismatch on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+115)

The Washington Nationals will get Bryce Harper back from the DL Monday night after missing the entire month of June. Meanwhile, Milwaukee remains without its best hitter in Ryan Braun.

Washington will roll tonight due to its edge on the mound and at the plate. Jordan Zimmerman has been nothing short of spectacular this season, going 11-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.916 WHIP in 16 starts. Zimmerman has been untouchable at home, going 8-0 with a 1.09 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in nine starts.

Yovani Gallardo has gone 6-7 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in 17 starts this season. While Gallardo is 3-2 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in seven career starts against Washington, Zimmerman is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.947 WHIP In two career starts against Milwaukee.

Zimmerman is 18-5 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are winning by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Zimmerman is 14-1 (+13.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Washington is winning by 2.8 runs/game in this spot. Washington is 9-0 in Zimmerman's 9 home starts this season. Take the Nationals on the Run Line Monday.

20* Yankees/Orioles ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +113

The New York Yankees have lost four straight games heading into this showdown with the Baltimore Orioles tonight. They'll be highly motivated for a victory, and due to their edge on the mound, I believe they get it.

Hiroki Kuroda is 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in his last three starts. Kuroda is also 2-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in five career starts against Baltimore.

Chris Tillman has been solid for Baltimore, going 9-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in 16 starts, but he's no Kuroda. Tillman is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in nine home starts, and 2-3 with an 8.16 ERA and 2.163 WHIP in seven career starts against New York.

New York is a very resilient team when trying to avoid a sweep. The Yankees are 42-15 in their last 57 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Yankees are 7-3 in Kuroda's last 10 starts as an underdog. Bet New York Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds +107

After losing three straight and six of their last seven games overall, the Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday. Given the edge they have on the mound over the Texas Rangers in this one, I like them to get back in the win column in blowout fashion.

Mike Leake is quietly having a superb season for Cincinnati. The right-hander has gone 7-3 with a 2.61 ERA in 15 starts, 5-1 with a 2.32 ERA in eight road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last three starts.

Leake will be up against Texas starter Nick Tepesch, who is 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in 14 starts this season. Tepesch is also 1-3 with a 4.79 ERA in seven home starts, and 0-1 with a 7.53 ERA in his last three outings.

The Reds are 5-1 in Leake's last 6 road starts. Cincinnati is 12-5 in its last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Texas is 1-4 in Tepesch's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Roll with the Reds Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Giants -101

The San Francisco Giants are highly motivated for a victory Saturday against the Colorado Rockies. The defending champs have lost five straight coming in, so they won't be taking this game lightly.

While Matt Cain got off to a slow start this season, he has started to pitch like the ace of the staff he is of late. Cain is 1-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.813 WHIP over his last three starts.

Cain is 17-7 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 30 career starts against Colorado. He'll be up against Jorge De La Rosa, who is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts against San Francisco, allowing 13 earned runs over 14 2/3 innings.

San Francisco is 10-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 11-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. The Rockies are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Giants Saturday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -113

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most resilient teams in the league. After one of their worst stretches of the season in which they have lost five of their last six games overall, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory today over the Oakland A's.

Ace Adam Wainwright is just the guy to stop the bleeding. The right-hander is having a Cy Young-caliber season, going 10-5 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.011 WHIP through 16 starts in 2013.

Wainwright will be up against Jarrod Parker, who is clearly overmatched in this one. Oakland's right-hander has gone 6-6 with a 4.27 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 4.88 ERA in eight home starts.

St. Louis is 9-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season. The Cardinals are 20-3 (+16.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. St. Louis is 24-7 (+14.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Wainwright is 7-0 (+7.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less this season. The Cardinals are 8-0 in Wainwright's last 8 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. St. Louis is 11-1 in Wainwright's last 12 road starts. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Wainwright and the Cardinals. Bet St. Louis Saturday.

15* AL Friday Mound Mismatch on Kansas City Royals -140

The Kansas City Royals have a huge edge on the mound tonight over the Minnesota Twins. After losing Game 1 of this series to the Twins, I believe the Royals bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 due to their advantage on the rubber.

James Shields has been one of the best starters in the entire league in 2013. Despite his unlucky 2-6 record, the right-hander has posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Those numbers drop to a 2.50 ERA and 1.130 WHIP over his eight road starts.

P.J. Walters is one of the worst starters in the league. He has gone 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three outings.

Shields has gone 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last four starts against Minnesota, allowing just seven earned runs over 28 innings of work. Meanwhile, Walters has never beaten Kansas City, going 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals.

The Twins are 0-10 (-10.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season. They are losing by a whopping 3.8 runs/game in this spot. Roll with the Royals Friday.

15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -127

The Los Angeles Angels are feeling great about themselves after sweeping the Detroit Tigers last series while scoring a combined 24 runs in the process. This team is finally starting to play up to its potential, and it will be a scary squad in the second half.

Jerome Williams is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has given the Angels a ton of quality starts this season, going 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.184 WHIP. He has also given up just seven earned runs over 21 starts in his last three starts against Houston for a 3.00 ERA.

Bud Norris has certainly had the answer for the Angels this season. He has gone 3-0 against them in 2013 alone, and there's no question that Los Angeles wants revenge. Getting to see him for a 4th time already this season is a huge advantage for the Angels, and they'll be ready for him tonight.

The Angels are 11-3 in Williams' last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record, including a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 10-26 in Norris' last 36 starts, including 3-14 in his last 17 Friday starts. We're getting Los Angeles at a discounted price tonight. Take the Angels Friday.

25* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -130

After getting swept by the Los Angeles Angels at home last series, the Detroit Tigers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder heading into Game 1 of this series with the Tampa Bay Rays Friday.

Max Scherzer has been Detroit's best starter all season, and he's ready to be the one to stop the bleeding tonight. Scherzer is 11-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.910 WHIP through 15 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.689 WHIP in six road starts.

Scherzer loves tonight's opponent. The right-hander has gone 2-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in five career starts against Tampa Bay. In his lone start against the Rays in 2013, Scherzer gave up just one earned run and six base runners over 7 innings while striking out nine on June 6.

The Tigers are 37-18 in Scherzer's last 55 starts overall. Detroit is 7-1 in Scherzer's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -129

After losing five of their last six games overall, including two out of three to the Indians in this series, the Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated for a victory tonight in Game 4. I look for them to roll Cleveland to even this series at 2-2.

Miguel Gonzalez is one of the most underrated starters in the entire league. The right-hander has gone 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 13 starts this season. In his last three starts against potent lineups in Toronto, Boston & LA Angels, Gonzalez has gone 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.831 WHIP.

Corey Kluber has been respectable for Cleveland, going 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 11 starts this season. However, he has been at his worst on the road, going 3-2 with a 4.46 ERA over six starts.

The Indians are 21-45 in their last 66 games as a road underdog. The Orioles are 41-15 in their last 56 games following a loss. Cleveland is 6-18 in its last 24 vs. AL East foes.

Cleveland is 0-5 in Kluber's last 5 starts vs. AL East opponents. Baltimore is 10-1 in Gonzalez's last 11 home starts. The Orioles are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts as a home favorite. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Thursday.

15* NL Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -116

The Philadelphia Phillies should be a much heavier favorite over the San Diego Padres tonight. They have Cole Hamels going up against Robbie Erlin, giving the Phillies a massive edge on the mound in this one.

Hamels is undervalued right now due to his 2-11 start with a 4.50 ERA and 1.290 WHIP on the season. There's no question he is better than what he has shown so far, and I have no doubt he'll have a monster second half to bring those numbers down.

Hamels has pitched his best away from home this season, sporting a 3.54 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in eight road starts. The left-hander has absolutely owned San Diego, going 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Padres. Hamels is 5-0 with a miniscule 0.73 ERA in his last five starts against San Diego dating back to 2010, allowing 3 earned runs over 37 innings.

Robbie Erlin will be making just his second start of the season for the Padres, and he's no more than a spot starter in this league. The Phillies are 17-6 in Hamels' last 23 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Philadelphia is 42-18 in its last 60 meetings with the Padres, including 27-7 in its last 34 meetings in San Diego. Roll with the Phillies Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+133)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will win by 2-plus runs tonight and sweep the NL West-rival San Francisco Giants. With the edge they have on the mound in this one, and with a healthy return of Matt Kemp to one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, winning by 2-plus won't be a problem.

Clayton Kershaw has pitched like the former NL Cy Young winner he is this season. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.989 WHIP through 16 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.954 WHIP In nine home starts.

Kershaw is 9-4 with a miniscule 1.29 ERA and 0.835 WHIP in 18 career starts against San Francisco. In his last two home starts against the Giants, Kershaw has allowed one earned run over 17 innings with the Dodgers winning those games by finals of 4-0 and 5-1, respectively. In fact, Kershaw has only allowed 9 earned runs over 78 1/3 innings in his last 10 starts against the Giants for a 1.03 ERA.

Tim Lincecum is not pitching like the former NL Cy Young winner that he is, and he hasn't over the last few seasons. The right-hander has gone 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 15 starts this year, including 1-4 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in seven road starts.

Lincecum is 0-7 (-8.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. The Giants are losing by 3.9 runs/game in this spot. San Francisco is 1-8 (-8.3 Units) against the money line after a one run loss this season. It is losing by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Rangers/Yankees ESPN 2 No-Brainer on New York -132

The New York Yankees have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Texas Rangers. I look for that to be a big reason that they win this one going away on ESPN's Wednesday Night Baseball.

Andy Pettite continues to get it done for the Yankees despite his age. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 4.20 ERA on the season. He has allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his last three starts against Texas, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in the process.

I look for the Yankees to tee off on the Rangers' worst starter, Justin Grimm. The right-hander has gone 6-5 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 7.01 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in seven road starts.

The Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Yankees are 37-15 in Pettitte's last 52 starts as a favorite. New York is 12-4 in its last 16 meetings with Texas, including 9-1 in its last 10 home meetings. Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -120

The Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory Tuesday in Game 2 of this series with the Cleveland Indians. They have lost four straight coming in, and I look for Buck Showalter's team to respond in a big way tonight to get back in the win column.

The underrated Chris Tillman is having yet another solid season for Baltimore, going 8-2 with a 3.71 ERA in 15 starts. He has been even more dominant of late, going 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts.

Justin Masterson has been at his worst on the road this season for Cleveland. The right-hander is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA in seven starts away from home in 2013. The Indians are 5-16 in Masterson's last 21 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

Cleveland is 23-48 in its last 71 road games. The Indians are 21-47 in their last 68 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Orioles are 24-8 in their last 32 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore is 14-2 in Tillman's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +126

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Detroit Tigers Tuesday night. At 33-43 and nearing the midpoint of the season, the Angels realize that now is the time to turn it on if they want to make a run at the postseason.

With the edge the Angels have on the mound tonight, they should not be a dog in this one. C.J. Wilson is 6-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. In his last two starts against Detroit, Wilson has gone 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA while allowing 3 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings.

Rick Porcello is 4-4 with a 4.74 ERA in 13 starts and one relief appearance in 2013. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 7.68 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in eight career starts against Los Angeles. His worst start of the season came against the Angels on April 20th as Porcello allowed 9 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning of a 10-0 loss.

The Angels are 17-5 in their last 22 games following an off day. Los Angeles is 20-8 in its last 28 vs. AL Central opponents. The Tigers are 1-5 in Porcello's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Los Angeles is 6-0 in its last 6 meetings with Detroit. Take the Angels Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Yankees Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on New York +118

Rarely will you ever get the New York Yankees as a home underdog. I'll gladly take advantage Tuesday and back them at an excellent price as they look to improve to 23-16 at home this season.

Hiroki Kuroda continues to get disrespected by oddsmakers. The right-hander is 7-5 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in seven home starts.

Kuroda has posted a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in three career starts against Texas. In fact, in his lone home start against the Rangers, Kuroda pitched a complete game shutout while allowing only four base runners in a 3-0 New York victory on 8/14/2012.

Texas is 5-17 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a favorite. Texas is 1-5 in Yu Darvish's last 6 starts. The Yankees are 21-10 in their last 31 games following an off day. New York is 11-4 in its last 15 meetings with Texas, including 8-1 in its last 9 home meetings. Roll with the Yankees Tuesday.

20* NL Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -111

The Philadelphia Phillies have a big edge on the mound tonight with Cliff Lee over Eric Stults. As a result, I'll take advantage and back them at an excellent price Monday.

Lee has gone 9-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.952 WHIP through 15 starts this season. He has been at his best away from home, going 6-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in nine road starts in 2013.

Stults is having a solid season for San Diego as well, but he's no Lee. He has gone 6-5 with a 3.25 ERA in 15 starts this season for the Padres.

The Phillies are 8-1 in Lee's last 9 starts. Philadelphia is 5-0 in Lee's last 5 road starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. The Phillies are 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts vs. NL West opponents. Bet Philadelphia Monday.

20* Rangers/Cardinals ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Texas +182

The Texas Rangers are showing their best value of the season Sunday. Rarely will you ever get them as close to a 2-to-1 underdog, so we'll take advantage tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

Nick Tepesch is an underrated starter in this league. He is an unfamiliar name for most bettors, but he has performed decently for most of the season, going 3-6 with a 4.84 ERA for Texas.

Adam Wainwright is a popular name, and he gets too much credit because of it, especially tonight. Wainwright gave up 4 earned runs and two homers over 7 innings in his last start in a 2-4 home loss to the Chicago Cubs as a -210 favorite.

Texas is 14-3 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 23-7 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Bet the Rangers Sunday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +145

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value Sunday. Andrew Cashner is getting way too much respect from the books in this one. He has only been a starter this year, and he won't be able to sustain his numbers over a full season.

Chris Capuano has posted a 4.62 ERA through seven starts and two relief appearances for the Dodgers. He has been at his best on the road, going 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP through three starts away from home.

Cashner is 5-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.226 WHIP through 11 starts and seven relief appearances in 2013. Capuano is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 12 career starts against San Diego. He won his last start at San Diego on 9/27/2012, giving up just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings of an 8-4 Dodgers' victory.

The Dodgers are 8-3 in Capuano's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take the Dodgers Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -132

The Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They will get a win to avoid the 3-0 sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll gladly back them at this price.

Joe Blanton is coming around for the Angels after a disastrous start. He has allowed 3 earned runs over less in four of his last five starts. That includes 2 earned runs in three of those outings, and he has struck out 11 batters twice during this span.

Charlie Morton has only made two starts this season for Pittsburgh. He is no more than a spot starter in this league, and I look for the Angels' potent offense to get after him early and often in this one.

Morton is 10-30 (-17.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 since 1997. Los Angele is 16-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Morton is 2-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

20* Pirates/Angels Interleague BAILOUT on Los Angeles -117

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as only a small home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at this price tonight.

Jerome Williams is not getting the respect he deserves from the books. Williams has gone 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.144 WHIP through seven starts and 11 relief appearances in 2013. He has posted a 3.38 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh.

Francisco Liriano is getting way too much respect for his fast start in limited action this season. Remember, Liriano has posted a 5.09 ERA or worse in four of his seven big league seasons, so his current 2.44 ERA in unsustainable. Plus, he's 1-4 with a 6.63 ERA in seven career starts against the Angels.

The Pirates are 13-53 in their last 66 interleague road games. The Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 41-20 in its last 61 interleague home games. Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +100

The Los Angeles Dodgers should not be the underdog in this contest with the San Diego Padres. They clearly have the better starter on the mound, and they'll be motivated to bounce back from a Game 1 defeat tonight.

Zach Greinke has gone 3-2 with a 4.23 ERA through nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts. He finally appears fully recovered from his broken collarbone suffered earlier this season.

Edinson Volquez is 5-5 with a 5.84 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 1-0 with an 8.16 ERA in his last three. Volquez is 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles, while Greinke is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego.

Greinke is 35-13 (+18.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 50-24 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. San Diego is 3-17 (-14.9 Units) against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. Take the Dodgers Saturday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +136

Great value here with the Minnesota Twins as they look to bounce back from a 1-5 loss to Cleveland in Game 1 of this series. P.J. Walters clearly isn't getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers in this one.

Walters has gone 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA in five starts this season, 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two road starts, and 0-2 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts overall.

Corey Kluber is 4-4 with a 3.73 ERA over 10 starts in 2013. While those numbers are decent, he's getting too much respect in this one. Kluber is also 0-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four career starts against Minnesota.

Minnesota is a very profitable 33-30 (+16.7 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Walters is 5-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 27-53 (-22.6 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Twins Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Boston Red Sox +165

The Boston Red Sox are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight against the Detroit Tigers. While Max Scherzer is having a very solid season for Detroit, he's up against a team that he simply has not been able to figure out in the past.

Scherzer is 1-3 with a 9.21 ERA and 1.941 WHIP in six career starts against the Red Sox. He has allowed 29 earned runs and 55 base runners over 28 2/3 innings in those six outings.

The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series. This is simply too good of value to pass up given Scherzer's career numbers against Boston. Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -146

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a massive edge on the mound tonight. I'll gladly back them at this price with former Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw on the mound. He'll take down Clayton Richard and the San Diego Padres in this one.

Kershaw is 5-4 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Richard has gone 1-5 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.678 WHIP in 10 starts this year for the Padres.

Kershaw is 8-5 with a 2.44 ERA in 19 career starts against San Diego. Kershaw is 20-3 (+14.7 Units) against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game since 1997. Richard is 10-27 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.

This play falls into a system that is 59-16 (78.7%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (SAN DIEGO) - starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

25* NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Heat UNDER 189.5

I have correctly picked the winning side in each of the first six games in this series. However, I believe the oddamakers have set a very solid spread for Game 7. But they have certainly missed their mark on the total, which is where all the value lies in this huge contest.

By now, San Antonio and Miami know exactly what one another is going to do. That makes points very hard to come by as it's now down to which team wants it more. Game 6 would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime, and I look for Game 7 to be even lower scoring tonight.

Both teams come in extremely tired after using up a ton of energy in that incredible Game 6. Neither team is going to have the energy to get out and fast break with any kind of consistency. That's why I expect this to be a slow-it-down, grind-it-out Game 7. Also, the pressure of a Game 7 will make it more difficult for shooters to knock down shots.

The play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - as a # 1 seed in the playoffs, in the finals.

The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Spurs last 22 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami's last 5 home games. The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between these teams in Miami. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Thursday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Detroit Tigers -116

Rarely will you ever get the Detroit Tigers at this kind of price at home. Off back-to-back losses to Baltimore over the past two days, I look for the Tigers to get back into the win column with a Game 1 victory over Boston tonight.

Boston has played three games over the past two days after having a double-header on Tuesday. Its bullpen will be tired heading into this one, and the Red Sox will need their bullpen with John Lackey on the mound.

Lackey is 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.409 over seven road starts in 2013. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA in his last two starts against Detroit, allowing 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners over 13 innings in those two outings.

Jose Alvarez pitched a gem in his lone start for Detroit this season on June 9. He gave up just one earned run and four base runners over six innings while striking out 7 to earn the victory in a 4-1 triumph at home over Cleveland.

The Red Sox are 18-40 in their last 58 games as an underdog. Boston is 9-24 in its last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 37-14 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Detroit is 60-25 in its last 85 home games. The Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. Roll with Detroit Thursday.

15* Rays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +101

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be an underdog to the New York Yankees tonight. I believe they have the edge on the mound in this one with Matt Moore over Andy Pettite.

While Moore has struggled of late, he has still put together a very productive season at 8-3 with a 4.12 ERA. The left-hander has been at his best on the road, going 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA in seven starts.

Moore is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.274 WHIP in six career starts against New York. In his last two starts against the Yankees, both of which have come this season, he has gone 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA while allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings.

Andy Pettite is clearly past his prime. The left-hander has been at his worst at home this season, going 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in five starts. Pettite has posted a 3.98 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in 32 career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is 22-8 (+14.6 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Rays are 7-1 in Moore's last 8 road starts. The Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Also, New York is hitting just .223 and scoring 3.3 runs/game against left-handed starters this season, while Tampa Bay is scoring 4.8 runs/game against southpaws in 2013. Take the Rays Thursday.

15* AL NEVER LOST Mound Mismatch on Chicago White Sox -122

The White Sox are highly motivated for a victory after dropping five of their last six games overall. I love their chances of getting back into the win column considering the edge they have on the mound in this one behind Chris Sale.

Hands down, Sale is one of the best starters in the league. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in 12 starts this season while striking out 86 batters in 85 1/3 innings. He'll be up against Kevin Correia, who is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in 13 starts for Minnesota.

Sale has never lost to Minnesota, going 3-0 with a miniscule 0.90 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins. He has allowed just two earned runs and 14 base runners over 20 innings in those three starts. Roll with the White Sox Wednesday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -113

After three straight losses, including the first two games of this series to the Phillies, the Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday. I look for them to win and avoid the sweep in Game 3 tonight.

The Nationals have a huge edge on the mound in this one behind Gio Gonzalez, who is 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kyle Kendrick has gone 6-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 14 starts this season for Philadelphia. He has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in his last three starts. Kendrick allowed 7 earned runs and 12 base runners over 4 1/3 innings in his last start against Colorado.

Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Kendrick is 4-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 17 career starts against Washington.

Gonzalez is 52-22 (+21.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher since 1997. Washington is 16-3 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 19-7 in Gonzalez's last 26 road starts. Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +145

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall. They should not be this heavy of an underdog to the Cleveland Indians given how well they are playing heading into this one.

That's especially the case considering they have the edge on the mound in this one. Luis Mendoza is an underrated starter in this league. He has been at his best on the road, going 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in six starts away from home. He is also 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three starts.

What I really like about this play is the fact that Mendoza is 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts against Cleveland, allowing exactly 2 earned runs in each starts. Meanwhile, Justin Masterson is 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA in his last three starts against Kansas City, yielding 18 earned runs over 18 1/3 innings.

Cleveland is 8-25 (-14.3 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Indians are 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take Kansas City Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +7

I have been using the zig zag theory to perfection since taking San Antonio +5.5 in Game 1. I have gone 5-0 in the NBA Finals by selecting Miami in Game 2, San Antonio in Game 3, the Heat in Game 4, and the Spurs in Game 5.

However, I feel like it's time to buck this trend. That's because I believe that the oddsmakers have finally over-adjusted for it, installing Miami as a series-high 7-point favorite for Game 6. The value is with the Spurs in this one folks.

San Antonio knows that its best chance to win this series is in Game 6, because history is not on its side if this series goes to a Game 7. Greg Popovich will have his team focused and ready to go win this series in Game 6.

It's clear that Manu Ginobli still has something left in the tank. He, along with Danny Green, were the keys to San Antonio's Game 5 victory. I look for the Spurs to continue to share the ball and find the open man, while Manu is every bit as aggressive as he was in Game 6, which certainly helps this team.

Only three teams in NBA Finals history have rallied from a 3-2 deficit to win the final two home games, and thus the series. Tony Parker got overlooked in Game 5 as he scored a game-high 26 points, showing that his hamstring is a non-issue. Tim Duncan did what he does, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds.

San Antonio is 14-3 ATS after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better this season. Miami is 1-10 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season, including 0-7 ATS ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +184

The Chicago Cubs should not be this big of an underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday with ace Jeff Samardzija on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price tonight.

Samardzija has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.209 WHIP with 104 strikeouts through 91 innings over 14 starts this season. He has been at his best on the road, sporting a 2.83 ERA and 0.965 WHIP through seven starts away from home in 2013.

The Cubs are 4-1 in Samardzija's five career starts against St. Louis, and he has been an underdog in all five of them. Two of those wins came against tonight's scheduled starter Adam Wainwright, who is 6-5 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 18 career starts against Chicago.

In his last two starts against St. Louis, Samardzija has allowed just two earned runs over 12 2/3 innings while striking out 16 for a 1.42 ERA. Wainwright has yielded 15 earned runs over 22 innings in his last four starts against Chicago for a 6.14 ERA. Take the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-102)

The Detroit Tigers should have no problem making easy work of the Baltimore Orioles tonight. I fully expect them to win by two-plus runs given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Justin Verlander has gone 8-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 14 starts this season with 101 strikeouts over 87 innings. He is coming off his best start of the season, pitching seven shutout innings while allowing just five base runners to the Kansas City Royals on June 12th.

"For me, it was my best start, just because of the way I've been working to get back where I need to be," Verlander told the team's official website. "I feel like I've been getting better every start. I wasn't exactly where I want to be, but pretty doggone close."

Verlander is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 12 career starts against Baltimore. The Tigers have gone 11-1 in those 12 contests, winning 10 times by two runs or more in the process. That's a 10-2 (83%) run line system in favor of the Tigers heading into this one.

The Tigers are 29-6 in Verlanders last 35 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater. Detroit is 47-14 in Verlander's last 61 home starts. Zach Britton gave up six earned runs and 12 base runners over 6 innings of a a 2-6 loss at Seattle on April 29 in his lone start of the season for Baltimore. Roll with the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.