Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 5.5 Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars, 8:30 PM ET - These teams just met a week ago and the game went over the total but that was preceded by 3 straight unders in this series and 6 of the last 8 meetings staying under the total.  McElhinney started the most recent game for TB so #1 goalie Vasilevskiy expected to start here.  This is a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup Finals match-up and should be a tight low-scoring battle.  The Stars are off a high-scoring shootout loss to Nashville but 3 of 4 preceding games totaled 5 or less goals.  Per our computer math modeling, this one will total 5 or less as well. Oettinger expected to get the start in the crease for Dallas and he has a 2.23 GAA this season!  The young netminder has played well thus far this season and that includes looking sharp in a pair of appearances versus the Lightning.  More of the same expected here.  We like UNDER here. 

ASA top play on 10* OVER 6 Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators, 7:00 PM ET - The Senators have a mess at the goalie position right now.  Matt Murray is dealing with an upper body injury.  Joey Daccord just suffered a lower body injury and is likely out for the season.  Marcus Hogberg has been on the injured reserve with a lower body injury as well.  It is likely that 22 year old Filip Gustavsson will get the start for Ottawa here.  The Senators are allowing 4 goals per game this season and now likely will have a rookie netminder in the crease tonight making his first ever NHL start.  Calgary is expected to start Jacob Markstrom here and he has struggled badly in his last 3 starts.  Markstrom has allowed 13 goals in his last 3 appearances and, as bad as Ottawa has been this season, they have been quite competitive on home ice.  The Senators have gone 5-1-2 in their last 8 home games and have scored an average of 3.7 goals per game (not including OT or SO) in their 7 most recent home games.  Our computer math model reflects strong odds on at least 7 goals in this one.  We like OVER here. 

ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings, 6:00 PM ET - The value of having a 5.5 here is a big one. Vegas won Friday's game 4-2 and that was the 5th time in the last 6 meetings between these teams that has resulted in an over.  Also, 5 of the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles have also resulted in an over.  The Kings struggle to stop the Knights and have allowed at least 4 goals in each of the 3 meetings this season.  The Kings should enjoy their fair share of success in the offensive zone in this one as well.  Though Marc-Andre Fleury will be between the pipes for Vegas in this one, he has allowed 4 goals in 3 of his last 5 appearances including 2 of his last 3 on the road.  Also, in starts against LA, Fleury has given up 6 goals on 46 shots for an ugly .869 save percentage.  Los Angeles has converted on 5 of its last 12 power play opportunities against Vegas.  The Golden Knights are a solid 3 of 12 on the power play against the Kings in recent meetings.  Overall Vegas has scored 4 or more goals in 4 of its last 5 games and the Golden Knights are on a 5-1 O/U run.  Our computer math model reflects strong odds on at least a 4-2 game in this one.  We like OVER here. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON New York Rangers Money Line +125 over Washington Capitals at 7:00 PM ET - Yesterday's game slipped away from the Rangers despite a 33-18 edge in shots on goal.  The Capitals rallied for 2 late goals to get the 2-1 win and that means it is payback time for New York on Saturday.  The Rangers had won each of the first two meetings this season and Washington was hungry for revenge yesterday but now it is New York seeking revenge in this one.  The Rangers looked like the better team for much of yesterday's game and certainly are more dangerous since the return of Panarin to the ice.  He scored their lone goal yesterday but, again, the Rangers could have had more.  They will make up for that here and there is a reason this line has moved toward New York even though the Capitals have won 7 straight and 14 of 17.  Why does a line move against a team like that in this situation?  Sharp money!  Grab the dog here.  Take the RANGERS

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Calgary Flames Money Line +145 over Toronto Maple Leafs at 7:00 PM ET - Calgary is off an ugly 7-3 loss and will respond here.  The Flames are 7-2 this season when off a loss in which they allowed 4 or more goals.  Calgary also has revenge here as they have lost 3 of 4 games against Toronto this season including the most recent defeat coming in overtime.  The Flames are catching the Maple Leafs at the right time as Toronto has lost 5 of its last 6 games and allowed an average of 4 goals per game during this rough stretch.  The Flames had won 3 straight by a combined score of 9-5 before their 7-3 loss Wednesday.  Calgary will be the better team from an execution standpoint here as they have already played twice this week while this is the Leafs first game since Sunday!  Take the FLAMES

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Ottawa Senators Money Line +130 over Vancouver Canucks at 7:00 PM ET - The Canucks beat the Senators again on Monday.  That was the 4th straight win for Vancouver over Ottawa this season.  However, the Senators rallied from a 3-0 deficit and fell just short in the 3-2 loss.  The Sens outshot the Canucks by a 46-28 margin and Ottawa has outshot Vancouver in all 4 meetings this season with an edge of 30 shots just in the last two games alone.  That said, this is the perfect spot for the Senators to finally get past the Canucks as Vancouver has a big revenge game at Montreal on deck for Friday.  The Canucks have won 5 of 6 games but the lone loss was a 5-1 defeat to the Canadiens.  Vancouver gets caught looking ahead to that game and home dog Ottawa will prove to be the hotter team here.  Take the SENATORS

ASA PLAY 8* ON Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line -150 over Dallas Stars at 8:30 PM ET - The Lightning are off a 4-1 home loss versus Nashville yesterday.  McElhinney got the start in goal in the front end of a back to back but that means it should be Vasilevskiy between the pipes for this one.  He is Tampa Bay's #1 netminder and is 17-3-1 this season with a 1.85 GAA and a .934 save percentage.  The Bolts are 3-0 the last 3 times they were off a loss and we expect a big response here after the embarrassing defeat against the Predators yesterday afternoon.  Tampa Bay beat the Stars to win the Stanley Cup last season.  Though Dallas has been seeking revenge this season, the Lightning already won both meetings with Dallas this year and those victories have come by a combined margin of 7-0.  Dallas is off a win entering this game but this victory came on the heels of the Stars losing 15 of 19 games.  This is a great spot to lay the price and look for a road blowout!  Take the LIGHTNING

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins Money Line -110 over Pittsburgh Penguins at 7 PM ET - The Bruins, overall, are a very strong hockey club that is also in a fantastic spot here.  Boston is off a 4-0 shutout loss at home versus the New York Rangers. The Bruins already have won both meetings with the Penguins this season and also have outshot them by a combined 93 to 69 in the last 3 meetings.  Boston is 2 for 5 on the power play in the 2 meetings this season while Pittsburgh is 0 for 14 on the power play in the last 4 meetings with the Bruins.  Special team edges for the Bruins here and you can bet they will be ready here as they look to bounce back from the shutout loss to the Rangers.  Boston has won 7 of its last 11 games played away from home and the Bruins have played very well as travelers except note that they did lose their most recent trip to Pittsburgh (last season) and now they have a chance at payback.  The Penguins are currently 3 points ahead of the Bruins in the division but Boston has 2 games in hand and can start gaining valuable ground in the standings right here right now.  The Bruins are a slight road favorite here for a reason. Do not let the line fool you.  Road team payback here after a shutout loss.  In terms of goal-tending, if Tuukka Rask is back for Boston tonight note that he has allowed just a single goal in each of his last 3 starts.  If it is Jaroslav Halak between the pipes for the Bruins, note that he took the loss against the Rangers but that was preceded by him allowing a total of just two goals over his last 3 starts combined!  Boston had gone 6 straight games without allowing more than a single goal in regulation time and they will resume their strong defensive play after the 4-0 shutout loss to the Rangers.  The Penguins have been hot but we still question their goaltending with Jarry and DeSmith.  Keep in mind Pittsburgh's recent winning run came against the slumping Flyers, the Rangers when Panarin was still out, and a very bad Sabres team.  The Pens took advantage of that schedule but now things get much tougher here.  Take the BRUINS

ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres, 7:00 PM ET - The value of having a 5.5 here is a big one. The Sabres have been having goaltending issues but do tend to score better when at home.  The Penguins should continue to score plenty and, with their 5-2 win at Buffalo Thursday, Pittsburgh has seen each of their last 6 games and 8 of their last 9 total 6 or more goals.  The Pens have scored an average of 4.3 goals per game their last 6 games.  The Sabres are on a 9-game losing streak and have allowed an average of 4.8 goals per game in regulation their past 5 games.  Buffalo has scored at least 2 goals in 6 straight games.  Are computer math model reflects strong odds on at least a 4-2 game in this one.  We like OVER here. 

ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Arizona Coyotes at Minnesota Wild, 8:00 PM ET - The Wild have been riding a red hot goalie in Kaapo Kahkonen as they are 8-0 in his last 8 starts!  However, Minnesota wants to give Cam Talbot some work here so he is getting the start in this one.  He has allowed 4 or more goals in each of his last 3 starts.  As you would expect with numbers like that, all 3 of those games went over the total.  With Talbot getting the start here and knowing that the Wild are big favorites here for a reason it is worth mentioning that Minnesota has scored an average of 4 goals per game last 9 victories.  So Minnesota gets theirs here but Talbot struggles again against an angry Coyotes team that is off a loss in a game at Colorado where they were fortunate to hang around as they generated only 14 shots on goal in the defeat.  Arizona will put an emphasis on offensive zone production after a game like that and they'll take advantage of facing Talbot.  Prior to that loss the Coyotes won 3 of 4 games plus scored an average of 3 goals per game during that stretch.  Both Arizona's games with Minnesota this season totaled at least 6 goals and this one will as well.  We like OVER here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - Panarin is back practicing with the Rangers but he won't be playing tonight.  He is the Rangers best player.  Shesterkin is the Rangers #1 goalie and he is still out with an injury.  That said, New York is still a little short-handed at both ends of the ice here and they are facing an angry Bruins team that is off back to back losses.  Boston is a perfect 3-0 this season when off back to back defeats and the last two victories have come by a combined score of 11 to 4.  The Bruins are a big favorite here but we get line value by playing them on the puck line at -1.5 goals to get a big plus money return.  Boston's last 3 wins have been by a combined score of 16 to 5.  The Rangers last 3 losses have all been by multiple goal margins and a combined score of 13 to 4.  The Bruins are offering line value here because goalie Rask is out but Halak has been fantastic between the pipes and comes up with another fantastic start here.  Halak has had just one bad game this season.  He allowed 7 goals in that one but just 1.5 goals per game in his other 8 starts.  Another gem here.  Laying the 1.5 goals (for a solid plus money return, currently in the +150 range) with Boston is the value play here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins Money Line -110 over New York Islanders at 7 PM ET - The Bruins, overall, are a very strong hockey club that is also in a fantastic spot here.  Boston is off a 1-0 shutout loss at home versus New Jersey. The Bruins also have lost all 3 meetings with the Islanders this season.  You can bet they will be ready here as they seek revenge and also look to bounce back from the loss to the Devils.  Boston has won 7 of its last 10 games played away from home and 2 of those 3 defeats were at the hands of the Islanders.  In other words, the Bruins have played very well as travelers except against the Islanders and now they have a chance at payback.  The Islanders are currently in first place in the division but Boston has 3 games in hand and can start gaining valuable ground in the standings right here right now.  The Bruins are a slight road favorite here for a reason. Do not let the line fool you.  Road team payback here after a shutout loss.  Take the BRUINS

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals – Edmonton Oilers vs Ottawa Senators, Monday at 9 PM ET – The Senators are in the second game of a back to back and off a 4-3 upset win in the shootout at Calgary. Ottawa used #1 goalie Matt Murray last night. He has not been that strong anyway but is unlikely to play in the 2nd game of a back to back. Senators choices are limited because Marcus Hogberg has been out with an injury. That means Joey Daccord has been the backup but he has very little NHL experience and has struggled in his limited action this season. So it will likely be a tired Murray or a rusty Daccord between the pipes for this one. Neither option is a good one and Edmonton is primed for a huge night of goal-scoring. The Senators have scored 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 9 games. The Oilers are favored here for good reason. In other words, this game should end up at least 4-3 as Edmonton prevails but gives up some goals along the way. Ottawa has been scoring well enough but allows too many and that is why 7 of their last 11 games have totaled at least 7 goals. In fact those 7 games averaged 9 goals! Speaking of high-scoring games, the Senators last 3 visits to Edmonton have seen the game totals average 8.7 goals per game. The Oilers are off a big win versus rival Calgary and resumed the solid play we saw from them prior to the tough 3-game set with the Maple Leafs. Now Edmonton goes from facing the top team in the division to facing the bottom team in the division and their high-scoring ways will resume. The Oilers were averaging scoring 4 goals per game over a 16-game stretch prior to the tough 3-game set with the Maple Leafs. Now after a bounce back win over the Flames and catching the Senators in a back to back, the Oilers will be flying all over the ice in this one and skating well but their goalies have allowed 3.8 goals per game in the last 4 games. Take the OVER here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Flyers Money Line -105 over Washington at 7 PM ET - The Capitals are off a very physical loss to the Bruins Friday.  That 5-1 defeat also saw their most physical player, Tom Wilson, deliver a bad hit on Brandon Carlo of the Bruins and Wilson is now on a 7-game suspension for Washington.  That will hurt this team some and they are taking on a Philly team that is in a back to back spot but on their home ice and with Carter Hart between the pipes.  Hart has shown a long-term tendency for dominating in his home ice starts so he is absolutely in his comfort zone here.  Also, Philadelphia hammered the Capitals 7-4 in the most recent meeting and this Flyers team is, for the most part, healthy again after already dealing with covid issues a few weeks ago.  Philadelphia could get Philippe Myers back here as well. Each team does have a couple personnel issues here but the absence of Wilson could hurt the Caps in a back to back physical match-up as these teams don't like each other to say the least.  Keep in mind, Carter Hart went 20-3-2 with a 1.63 GAA in his home starts last season and has only 1 regulation loss in 6 decisions on home ice this season.  Take the FLYERS

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas Stars Money Line -130 over Columbus at 8 PM ET - The Blue Jackets got a tight 3-2 win at Dallas Thursday for their 2nd straight win.  However, the season is nearly two months in and Columbus has yet to produce a winning streak longer than just 2 games!  We don't see that trend ending here as the Jackets continue to be a team plagued by inconsistency this season.  Prior to this 2-game winning streak, Columbus had lost 7 of 8 games.  Certainly Dallas has not impressed early this season but this is still a Stars team that was representing the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals last season!  The Stars began this season with 4 straight home wins.  Now their last 6 home games have seen 3 regulation losses and 3 OT/SO losses.  A determined Dallas team will take to the ice here and they are favored in the -130 range here with good reason.  Look for the Stars to come out flying in this one.  They will not be denied after Thursday's tight loss to the Blue Jackets.  Take the STARS

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6 Goals – Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning, Friday at 8 PM ET – Yesterday's game ended up a 3-2 overtime win for the Lightning.  Both teams used their top goalie last night.  That means their only choice tonight is to go with those guys again (unlikely) in the 2nd of a back to back or go to their back-ups (likely) tonight.  That being said, we like the over plenty in this one.  The Lightning back-up is Curtis McElhinney.  He allowed 4 goals in a 5-2 loss to Chicago the last time he faced them.  The Blackhawks back-up is Malcolm Subban.  He allowed 5 goals when he most recently faced TB and that was in January.  In the other half of that same 2-game set in mid-January, the Hawks also used their other netminder Collin Delia and he also allowed 5 goals to Tampa!  The point is that when it is not starting goalie Kevin Lankinen between the pipes for Chicago, the Lightning have feasted.  If Lankinen did go tonight it would be the 2nd night of a back to back and that is not a good situation.  If Subban goes he allowed 5 goals in his most recent start and that was also his only home start this season.  If the Lightning did go with Andrei Vasilevskiy tonight it would be the 2nd night of a back to back and that is not a good situation.  If McElhinney goes, he is coming off a good start but allowed 6 goals in the start right before that and also struggled against Chicago when he most recently faced them.  We have a total of 6 goals to work with here and Tampa Bay is off back to back low-scoring games but this was on the heels of a 14-game stretch in which TB scored at least 3 goals in 12 of the 14 games!  The Blackhawks lost last night's game on home ice to these Bolts in OT by a 3-2 final but entered that game scoring an average of 4 goals per game on home ice this season.  Given all of the above, we expect each team to get to 3 goals in this one and that would lead to at least a 4-3 final here.  Tampa Bay's only other road back to back this season saw the 2nd game total 7 goals.  Chicago's only other home back to back this season saw the 2nd game total 9 goals!  Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 6.5 goals - still holding solidly at 6 as of mid-morning, we like OVER here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Money Line +140 over Montreal at 7 PM ET - We successfully used Winnipeg in a 5-2 win over Vancouver on Tuesday as it was payback time for the Jets after that rare loss to the Canucks Monday.  Winnipeg, entering Monday's game, had won 4 straight games and 8 of their last 11 games.  The Canadiens are off a win as well but they had entered Tuesday night's game having lost 7 of 8 games.  This is clearly a case of two teams heading opposite directions for multiple weeks now and one game does not change all that.  The fact is that Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck is known for being great in bounce back mode and he was in goal for Monday's loss to the Canucks.  Winnipeg's Hellebuyck is 6-1 this season when he starts a game in which he lost his prior start or in which the Jets are coming off a loss.  We'll take advantage of the line value here because the Canadiens have not responded all that well since the coaching change and still seem to be in a transitional cycle.  That said the big dog comeback price on Winnipeg here is an excellent value as this is the perfect spot to back a strong team facing an over-priced favorite that has still been shaky of late.  Take the JETS

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Money Line -115 over Vancouver at 8 PM ET - The Canucks got a 4-0 shutout win yesterday at Winnipeg but the set up was perfect for them and, even in victory, they were outshot 27 to 19 by the Jets.  Going into yesterday's game, Vancouver had 3 full days off since playing on Thursday and the Canucks were highly motivated to end their losing streak of 4 straight games in that one.  They were catching the Jets at the perfect time to do just that.  Winnipeg was coming off an emotional 2-1 OT win over Montreal Saturday.  After back to back wins over the Canadiens, the first of which featured twice rallying from 2-goal deficits, the Jets were likely to be "out of gas" emotionally and physically last night and, sure enough, that proved to be the case.  Last night, the Canucks were proven to be the fresher and hungrier team.  However, now it is payback time for the Jets after that rare loss.  Winnipeg, entering yesterday's game, had won 4 straight games and 8 of their last 11 games.  The Canucks entered last night's game having lost 11 of 13 games.  This was clearly a case of two teams heading opposite directions for multiple weeks now and one game does not change all that.  The fact is that the Jets have been great in bounce back mode this season.  Winnipeg is 6-1 this season when coming off a loss.  Also, the goaltending match-up that is expected in this rematch favors the home side.  The Jets are expected to start Laurent Brossoit.  Even though he is the back-up to Connor Hellebuyck, Brossoit shutout the Canucks in his most recent start and has now allowed a total of just 2 goals in his last two appearances!  He will likely be opposed by Vancouver's Braden Holtby who has been replaced by Thatcher Demko as the #1 guy for the Canucks and this is because of his struggles.  Holtby lost 4 of his 5 starts last month and compiled a 3.86 GAA.  This one will be all Jets as they improve to 7-1 this season when off a loss.  We'll take advantage of the line value here because many would rate Holtby an edge over Brossoit in goal but that is simply not the case based on current level of play for these two.  That said, the lower line on Winnipeg here is an excellent value as this the perfect spot to back a revenging team.  Lay it!  Take the JETS

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Vancouver Canucks Money Line +120 over Winnipeg at 8 PM ET - Raise your hand if you also think it’s “fishy” that Winnipeg is such a small favorite in this game against a Vancouver team that has lost 4 straight and 11 of 13 games?  Of course the markets have jumped on this as expected and driven the price a little higher but that just means more value with the underdog Canucks in this one.  This game was priced this way for a reason.  Vancouver has had 3 full days off since playing on Thursday and the Canucks are highly motivated to end their losing streak here.  They are catching the Jets at the perfect time to do just that.  Winnipeg is coming off an emotional 2-1 OT win over Montreal Saturday.  After back to back wins over the Canadiens, the first of which featured twice rallying from 2-goal deficits, the Jets are likely to be "out of gas" here and the Canucks will prove to be the fresher and hungrier team.  Winnipeg has won 4 straight games and this is their longest winning streak of the season.  Look for them to come back down to earth in this one.  Grab the road dog here for an upset that many will be surprised to see but we won't.  The odds makers had this one right when they opened it up at such a small price.  Take the CANUCKS

ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks, 7:00 PM ET - Yesterday's game me ended up 5-3 even though there were only 2 power play opportunities the entire game.  That said, there was plenty of scoring 5 on 5 and we expect more of the same here.  The Red Wings are off back to back wins and have scored 5 goals in each victory so their confidence is growing.  However, Thomas Greiss is expected to get the start for Detroit here and he hasn't played in over a week and struggled badly in that one against Florida.  The Blackhawks also have some concern between the pipes here too as they have now allowed 5 goals in 3 of their last 4 games!  Kevin Lankinen expected to get the start here and he has allowed 4 or more goals in back to back starts and 3 of his last 5.  The Blackhawks were more of an "over team" last season and we're seeing a return to that in recent action and, with the confidence of the young Red Wings growing, this will "force the issue" here and this turns into another high-scoring affair on Sunday.  Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 6 goals - still holding at 5.5 as of mid-morning, we like OVER here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Money Line +105 over Toronto Maple Leafs at 7 PM ET - Edmonton has won 5 straight games and 11 of last 13.  No one has questioned the firepower of the Oilers coming into this season but the concern was always the goaltending.  However, ever since Mike Smith came back Edmonton has been getting a lot of strong play in the crease.  Even Mikko Koskinen has come up with some big starts too.  The Oilers have allowed just 1.3 goals per game in their last 9 victories.  It use to be the only way that Edmonton won games was 4-3 or 5-4 type high-scoring affairs but the Oilers are really on top of their game now.  That being said, and with this being a 1-2 battle at the top of the North Division, we love the line value being offered to the home dog.  Toronto has a great record this but, prior their tight 2-1 OT win versus Calgary (scored late to force OT) the Leafs had lost 3 of last 6 games.  The Oilers are absolutely the hotter team right now and worthy of a strong play as a home dog in this spot.  Edmonton is a different team than the one the Leafs faced back in January and the teams split those 4 games.  Now the home team is playing even stronger and takes the season series edge with a win here per our computer math model.  Take the OILERS

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line -125 over Chicago Blackhawks at 7 PM ET - From a situational perspective, this one is a fantastic one in terms of how it sets up.  Columbus has gone a perfect 4-0 this season when they have entered a game off back to back losses.  Their coach John Tortorella is a very demanding coach and you can bet he is on his team big after any loss but particularly back to back defeats.  Sure enough the Jackets have responded each time when in this situation this season and the combined score has been 15 to 7 in those victories.  Columbus has scored an average of 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season.  Chicago got the shootout win, 6-5, in a crazy high-scoring win over the Blue Jackets Tuesday.  That kind of high-scoring effort from the Blackhawks on the road is absolutely the exception rather than the norm this season.  Their prior road game was a 5-3 loss at Carolina and, prior to that, Chicago had played 10 road games and only scored well in one of them.  In the other 9 the Blackhawks scored an average of only 1.6 goals per game.  In other words, their performance Tuesday was most definitely an aberration and the Blue Jackets are set up well to get revenge tonight at a great price. Chicago is expected to start Malcolm Subban in this one and there is a reason that, long-term in the NHL, he has always been a back-up rather than the starter.  The Blackhawks Subban had a 3.17 GAA last season and historically has struggled on the road.  He has been better than expected early this season but that is a very small sample size and his long-term numbers tell the full story.  Look for Joonas Korpisalo to respond in the crease for the Blue Jackets tonight as he had been solid in 2 of 3 starts against Chicago before struggling in Tuesday's shootout loss.  It is payback time for Columbus and Korpisalo in this one!  Considering all of the above factors, look for a home ice blowout in this one.  Take the BLUE JACKETS

ASA top play on 10* OVER 6 Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET - The Maple Leafs were handed a 3-0 shutout loss by the Flames on Monday.  Toronto has scored an average of 4.2 goals per game when off a loss this season.  Certainly the Leafs will again respond off defeat here but this is also a team that has now allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of the last 5 games.  In those 4 games the Maple Leafs have allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game.  We are absolutely looking for a 4-3 type game here.  Calgary had allowed an average of 4.3 goals per game in the 4 games previous to the shutout win at Toronto Monday.  Also, the power play performance (0 for 7) for Toronto in that game Monday was entirely unexpected as the Maple Leafs, even including that rare 0 for 7, have converted 33% of their opportunities with the man advantage this season.  An average Leafs game this season is 6.3 goals and this one has a posted total of 6 even though it could easily be higher given the Maple Leafs track record of scoring well off of losses this year.  Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 6.5 goals - still holding at 6 as of mid-day, we like OVER here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line -120 over Chicago Blackhawks at 7 PM ET - The Blue Jackets enter this game off a home loss to Nashville.  Columbus is a perfect 4-0 this season in a game that follows a home ice loss.  The Jackets also enter this game seeking revenge against the Blackhawks.  The most recent meeting between these teams resulted in a 3-2 OT loss for Columbus at Chicago.  The Blackhawks have won 9 of their 19 games this season overall.  However, Chicago is a perfect 4-0 against the Red Wings this season and Detroit is absolutely the worst team in this division.  That is significant because the Blackhawks have lost 10 of 15 games against teams not named the Red Wings this season!  Overall, on the road this season, other than a 2-0 at Detroit, the Blackhawks have lost 7 of 9 games as travelers.  Now Chicago takes on an angry Blue Jackets team that is at home and 4-0 this season when off a home loss.  Per our computer math model, the home team prevails in convincing fashion in this match-up.  Take the BLUE JACKETS

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line -125 over Carolina Hurricanes at 7 PM ET - This is a rare chance to take a strong team off back to back losses.  The Bolts have lost back to back games and they are the defending Stanley Cup Champs for a reason.  Last season they responded in the post-season each time off a loss.  In the regular season they had 5 two-game losing streaks last season.  Only two losing streaks the entire season went beyond two losses.  This is a team that has proven time and time again they know how to respond and, after a 4-0 loss to the Hurricanes on Saturday, you can bet on the Lightning making the most of this chance to respond here immediately.  Carolina will again be without Teuvo Teravainen and he is a key contributor for them.  After Alex Nedeljkovic got the shutout win for the Hurricanes Saturday, James Reimer is expected to get the start between the pipes tonight.  He has a great record this season but it hasn't been based on his dominant play.  In fact, Reimer has allowed at least 3 goals in each of his last 7 starts.  This includes 19 goals in his last 5 starts for an average of 3.8 goals per game.  To put this in proper perspective, Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled a little in recent starts and yet he has a stellar 2.01 GAA on the season!  Before his loss to the Hurricanes on Saturday, Vasilevskiy had allowed 2 or less goals in 9 of his first 12 starts this season.  He and the Lightning are poised for big-time revenge here on Monday.  Tampa Bay lost the first meeting between these teams last month so this is now a double revenge spot for them and that defeat was in overtime.  That was a 1-0 OT loss and the Lightning are too strong of a team to get shut down 3 straight times by a Hurricanes team whose biggest problem this season has actually been keeping pucks out of their own net!  Revenge road rout expected here.  Lay it!  Take the LIGHTNING

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Kings Money Line +138 over Arizona Coyotes at 7 PM ET - This line has dropped from its opener even though Arizona is the popular choice here.  What does that tell us?  It means the sharp money is coming in on Los Angeles.  That makes perfect sense with us and also is in direct correlation with the result our computer math model is predicting for this one as well.  The Kings are supposed to be a bad team this season but don't tell that to them!  They have won 3 straight games and their confidence is growing with each victory.  After back to back wins by a combined 10-2 score they then beat the Coyotes by a 3-2 count in the shootout Thursday.  Though it took OT for them to get that victory, the Kings took a 2-goal lead in the first period and never trailed in that game.  Simply put, the Coyotes are a gritty but unimpressive team.  Arizona has now lost 5 of its last 7 games on home ice.  They simply don't merit being this large of a favorite right now and this is particularly true against a Los Angeles team that is surging.  Grab the underdog value here.  Take the KINGS

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line -115 over Nashville Predators at 7 PM ET - From a situational perspective, this one is a fantastic one in terms of how it sets up.  The Blue Jackets began this season with back to back losses at Nashville and now finally are getting their shot at revenge.  Columbus was a different team earlier this season as that was before the big trade with Winnipeg too.  The Blue Jackets were clearly having some team chemistry issues that have improved since the deal with the Jets.  After those back to back wins for the Predators to open the season, they have since won just 4 of 13 games!  Also, the Preds enter this game off a loss and that is noteworthy because it followed a win and Nashville has yet to have a standalone loss this season.  In other words, every time Nashville has had a loss it has begun a streak of at last two in a row.  That pattern is very likely to continue here as the Predators have lost 5 of 6 road games this season and just had their most recent games against Dallas cancelled by weather issues.  Now the Preds face a Blue Jackets team off back to back to back losses and this is the other side of the equation in terms of what is making a powerful situation.  Columbus has gone a perfect 3-0 this season when they have entered a game off back to back losses.  Their coach John Tortorella is a very demanding coach and you can bet he is on his team big after any loss but particularly back to back defeats.  Sure enough the Jackets have responded each time when in this situation this season and the combined score has been 12 to 7 in those victories.  Columbus has scored an average of 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season.  Nashville has had one high-scoring road win this season but lost each of its other five away games and scored an average of only 1.6 goals per game in those defeats.  Considering all of the above factors, look for a home ice blowout in this one.  Take the BLUE JACKETS

ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are looking for immediate revenge in this one after getting embarrassed and blowing a 4-goal lead and losing to Ottawa Monday night.  That being said, the value here is with the puck line.  Toronto is a -300 favorite on the money line but available right around -125 money on the puck line.  Can we expect a win by two or more goals here?  Yes!  Look for at least a margin of 2 goals in this one!  The Maple Leafs were guilty of relaxing too early against the Senators Monday night but will make up for that tonight.  Ottawa came into this season projected to be one of the worst teams in the league while the Maple Leafs are projected to be one of the best.   Each of Toronto's 4 wins already this month have come by at least a 2-goal margin and, per our computer math model, this one will too.  As for Ottawa, the Senators last 11 defeats have featured 9 losses by at least a 2-goal margin!  The Sens are set up to get blasted again here.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and having to lay only a small price, currently in the -125 range) with Toronto is the value play here.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Kings Money Line +110 over Minnesota Wild at 10 PM ET - The Wild are favored here and that may make sense based on long-term results and the market perception of these teams.  However, Minnesota has not played a game since February 2nd.  Now, two weeks later, the Wild are finally back in action after a bunch of issues due to the covid protocol.  Facing the Kings at Los Angeles is no easy task.  Despite the Kings overall long-term record being rather unimpressive, LA is known for being tough on home ice.  Last season Los Angeles struggled on the road but went 19-13-2 in home games!  This season the Kings have earned at least a point in 5 of their 7 home games.  So, again, the overall record is not that impressive but the Kings are a different team when on home ice and LA will take advantage of a Wild team that will have a lot of rust after two weeks without a game.  Also, Minnesota entered their unwanted break having lost 4 of 6 games and having scored just a single goal in each of the final 3 losses in that stretch.  The Kings are off a confidence-boosting 6-2 home win and are now 2-1-1 in their last 4 home games and LA has played 5 games already this month while the Wild come in with a lot of rust!  The Kings have scored at least 3 goals in each of their last 3 games.  Take the KINGS

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Money Line -120 over Buffalo Sabres at 7 PM ET - Just as it has greatly impacted other sports, the covid pandemic has also been impactful to the hockey world as well.  In the NHL yesterday, we saw a Capitals team playing for the first time in over a week and they looked out of sorts as the Penguins took advantage in an eventual 6-3 win.  The Avalanche were also playing for the first time in over a week and a half and they suffered a shutout loss at Vegas.  The point is that both games Sunday involved teams off a long layoff and it didn't go well for either hockey club that was in that situation.  Next up in that situation is a very difficult spot for Buffalo Monday.  The Sabres haven't played a game in even longer - a span of two weeks between contests - and now they host an Islanders team that has not lost a game in regulation in over 2 weeks.  Indeed New York is on a 6-game points streak and has won 3 of the last 4 games with the only loss in a shootout.  Today is the 15th of February and this will be the first game that Buffalo has played this month.  Not only that but the Sabres weren't exactly dominating on home ice either.  Buffalo has lost 4 of 6 home games and one of their two wins came in the shootout.  In summary, this match-up features an Islanders team playing its best hockey so far this season - they have found their stride - and taking on a Sabres team that has major issues with time off and conditioning issues for players and guys being stuck in quarantine.  We are getting line value here because the Islanders are on the road and expected to start back-up goalie Ilya Sorokin.  He has allowed a total of only 5 goals in regulation time of his last two starts and with how well his teammates have been playing that will be in front of him tonight coupled with the struggles for the Sabres skaters to return to game-ready form here, this one should turn into a road rout.  Take the ISLANDERS

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Coyotes Money Line +105 over St Louis Blues at 8 PM ET - The Blues won last night's game but the back to back situation favors the Coyotes.  St Louis will likely go with back-up goalie Ville Husso here and he has struggled this season.  While Arizona is also going with the back-up goalie here, Antti Raanta gets the call and he has been solid this season and long-term in his career.  Significant edge between the pipes expected here as it is likely to be a battle of back-up goalies given the back to back situation.  Prior to last night's loss, Arizona had won 3 straight meetings with St Louis this season.  The quirky scheduling situation this season has been further impacted by health protocols with covid and that is why it seems like the Blues and Coyotes are constantly playing each other.  Now, off their first loss in the last 4 meetings between the teams, the Coyotes get back on track with a big win tonight per our computer math model.  Bounce back time here.  Take the COYOTES

ASA PLAY ON 8* Montreal Canadiens Money Line -140 over Edmonton Oilers at 7 PM ET - The Canadiens are off a home loss to the Maple Leafs last night.  Even though this is a back to back, Montreal has been strong at goaltender as Jake Allen has played extremely well.  He will likely be between the pipes because Carey Price was in goal last night.  The Habs are 4-0 this season when off a loss.  Montreal also has won 4 of the 5 starts made by Allen this season.  The Senators are by far the worst team in the North Division this season.  What does Ottawa have to do with this match-up?  Well, the Oilers have been "hot" recently but a lot of it has to do with 4 of their last 5 games coming against Senators.  Edmonton went 4-0 in those match-ups but has lost 7 of 11 games against teams not named Ottawa this season.  Also, against the Canadiens, the Oilers have lost both games this season and the combined score of those two was 8-2.  Montreal is set up well to dominate again here as they improve to 5-0 this season when off a loss.  This is a very good Habs team that outshot the Maple Leafs by a solid margin yesterday but suffered a tight loss due to some rare 3rd period struggles.  Bounce back time here.  Take the CANADIENS

ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Rangers Money Line +145 over Boston Bruins at 7 PM ET - The Rangers are at home off a shutout loss.  That was New York's first loss in regulation time since the 26th of January.  Also, the Rangers allowed just 2 goals in the defeat and have given up a total of only 5 goals in their last 3 games.  New York has been playing very well and battled hard with the Islanders in the 2-0 loss to them Monday which was scoreless until very late in the game.  Most impressive has been the play of the Rangers defense and their goaltending and they offer great value here as a home dog.  The Bruins have the flashy record and are, of course, a strong team but they enter this game off an emotional series sweep of the Flyers and are now 4-0 against them so far this season.  Prior to those back to back wins at Philadelphia, Boston was on a stretch that saw them lose 3 of their last 4 road games.  The Bruins are overpriced here and the home dog off a loss should prove to be the hungrier hockey club in this one.  Take the RANGERS

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Red Wings Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers won their opening game this season in a big way by a 5-2 count.  Since that big opening victory Florida has won 5 of 8 games and not a single Panthers win was by more than 1 goal.  That said, the fact our computer math model is forecasting another very close game here is not surprising.  The Panthers have taken 2 of 3 from the Red Wings this season but both wins were by just a single goal while the loss (Sunday) was by a 3-goal margin.  That is why Detroit is a much smaller dog in this one on Tuesday in comparison with Sunday's game.  That said, the value is with the +1.5 goals here.  Despite their last 7 games featuring 3 against this hot Florida team and 2 each against last year's Stanley Cup Finalists - the Stars and Lightning - the Red Wings have only had 3 losses during that stretch by more than a single goal and this was a "murderers row" slate of games.  In recent seasons Detroit goalie Thomas Greiss has dominated the Panthers.  Look for the Red Wings netminder to continue to be a thorn in Florida's side on Tuesday.  Grabbing the +1.5 goals with Detroit is the play here

ASA play on 8* OVER 5.5 Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7:00 PM ET - The Blue Jackets defense is normally dominated by their top pairing of Seth Jones and Zach Werenski.  However, Werenski is currently out and missed yesterday's game which was a 6-5 Carolina win.  Now the Hurricanes and Blue Jackets meet again for a second straight day and another wild game is likely.  Columbus is not only hurt without one of their top defensemen, they also are dealing with a goalie issue.  Elvis Merzlikins has been out with an injury and that makes this back to back situation very tough.  Joonas Korpisalo got the start yesterday and that means he now plays the 2nd game of a back to back too or they turn the duties over to someone else.  They had hoped that someone else would be Matiss Kivlenieks but now he is dealing with an injury too.  That is why the Jackets called up Cameron Johnson from the American Hockey League and he actually had spent the last two seasons in the ECHL which is a step down from the AHL.  If Korpisalo gets the start again not only is it a back to back but he has now given up 14 goals in a span of about 2 and 1/2 games worth of ice time this month!  Plenty of goals again likely here as the Hurricanes also have a goalie injury issue.  Petr Mrazek had been their top goalie this season but he is hurt and that is why James Reimer has been the starter but he has allowed 5 goals in each of his last two starts.  With this being a back to back Alex Nedeljkovic could get the start but he has only made 4 NHL starts in his career.  The Blue Jackets last 3 games have all totaled 7 or more goals and have averaged 9 goals per game and we have a total, again, of only 5.5 posted on this game!  The Hurricanes last 4 games have all totaled 7 or more goals and have averaged 8.8 goals per game!  If you like goals, tune into the Nationwide Arena tonight!  Based on value and the situation, we like OVER here. 

ASA top play on 10* OVER 6.5 Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET - Below is our write-up from Thursday's easy winner on the over - game finished 7-3 - with some slight tweaks to update it for tonight's game. Both these clubs are struggling badly on the penalty kill.  Both power plays, particularly the Maple Leafs, have been strong to start this season.  Some special teams goals are likely tonight and we also should see plenty of scoring in 5 on 5 action as well.  Vancouver has struggled to stop anyone this season other than a bad Ottawa club.  In their games other than the 3 against the Senators, the Canucks have allowed an average of 4.7 goals per game!  Vancouver will absolutely have their hands full here trying to contain a potent Maple Leafs team that blasted them for 7 goals Thursday and is fully capable of another strong performance on home ice here.  Toronto has averaged a full 4 goals per game in its 8 wins this season.  The key to the value here is the total at 6.5 goals and the fact that the Leafs have allowed 3 goals in regulation time of each of the last 4 games.  Vancouver is fired up after getting shellacked at Montreal in back to back games and then hammered in the first game of this series too!  The Canucks are very capable of scoring well - they just can't stop anyone is the problem!  Looking at the Canucks last 10 games heading into this one, the average goals scored by Vancouver is a solid 4 goals a game.  Per our computer math model, this one falls in the range of a 5-4, 4-3, or 5-3 type game.  If you like goals, tune into the Scotiabank Arena tonight!  Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 7 goals - still holding at 6.5 as of early morning, we like OVER here. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nashville Predators Money Line +105 over Florida Panthers at 7:00 PM ET - The Predators rallied last night with two late goals and an eventual overtime victory at Florida. Of course the Panthers will be looking for payback here and many in the betting markets will likely be backing the home team here. However, Florida has issues and is fools gold in terms of their strong record. 4 of the Panthers 5 wins have come against the Blackhawks and Red Wings. Chicago and Detroit are two of the weaker teams in the NHL, the Wings in particular, and have combined for only 6 wins in 23 games this season. Nashville's schedule has been much tougher early this season than that of Florida's. The Predators have played 4 games already against the teams that met in the Stanley Cup Finals last year - Dallas and Tampa Bay. Nashville also has had 3 other games against Columbus and Carolina - both solid playoff teams from last year. All of this is not being properly factored into the equation here by the betting markets and there is value in the Preds here. Pekka Rinne relieved Juuse Saros in goal yesterday and stopped all 12 shots he faced and will likely get the start here. As for Florida, they used Sergei Bobrovsky last night so Chris Driedger likely gets the start here. Though he has played well early this season he also shut out Nashville last season and the Predators want payback here. Look for Nashville to build off the momentum of last night's exciting win and remember that this is a Preds team that has won 5 of 6 games this season when not facing the Stanley Cup finalists from last season. The scheduling factor is being overlooked by the markets here. Take the PREDATORS

ASA play on 8* OVER 6.5 Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET - Both these clubs are struggling badly on the penalty kill.  Both power plays, particularly the Maple Leafs, have been strong to start this season.  Some special teams goals are likely tonight and we also should see plenty of scoring in 5 on 5 action as well.  Vancouver has struggled to stop anyone this season other than a bad Ottawa club.  In their games other than the 3 against the Senators, the Canucks have allowed an average of 4.5 goals per game!  Vancouver will absolutely have their hands full here trying to contain a potent Maple Leafs team that also enters this game off a loss which means added motivation for a strong performance here.  Toronto should bounce back with a win here and has averaged nearly a full 4 goals per game in its 7 wins this season.  The key to the value here is the total at 6.5 goals and the fact that the Leafs have allowed 3 goals in regulation time of each of the last 3 games.  Vancouver is fired up after getting shellacked at Montreal in back to back games and the Canucks are very capable of scoring well - they just can't stop anyone is the problem!  Looking at the Canucks last 9 games heading into this one, the average goals scored by Vancouver is a solid 4 goals a game.  Per our computer math model, this one falls in the range of a 5-4, 4-3, or 5-3 type game.  If you like goals, tune into the Scotiabank Arena tonight!  Based on value and the situation, we like OVER here. 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Red Wings Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 5:35 PM ET - The Lightning, of course, are the better team here and they are the defending Stanley Cup Champions and they are huge favorites on the money line for a reason.  But the Red Wings are very likely to be the more motivated team plus should get solid goal-tending here and we like the value available with the +1.5 goals on the puck line.  Thomas Greiss will be between the pipes for Detroit and, in his 6 starts he has allowed a total of only 14 goals in regulation.  He has been very consistent in his starts for the Red Wings and not allowed more than 3 goals in any of them.  That average of 2.3 goals in regulation time of the 6 starts that Greiss has made is also a big reason that 4 of 6 losses have been by just a single goal and two of those were in overtime.  Look for another 1-goal game here.  Last season Tampa Bay was also a huge favorite in both games but both were 1-goal games and the Red Wings even got the outright upset in one of those games.  Detroit has some guys on the quarantine list but they have already been playing without them and gotten adjusted to that and have still been ultra-competitive most games as you can see from all the tight losses they have had this season.  The Tyler Bertuzzi injury hurts but the Red Wings just battled Florida to a 3-2 loss without him on Sunday.  Tampa Bay is off a 5-2 win but they entered that game on a 2-1-1 run where each win was by a single goal.  Look for another close game here early Wednesday evening.  Grabbing the +1.5 goals (and getting a come back price too, currently in +110/115 range) with Detroit is the play here

ASA PLAY ON 7* Colorado Avalanche Money Line -165 over Minnesota Wild at 8:30 PM ET - We rarely lay prices in this range in money line sports such as NHL and MLB. However, this is a rare exception that is too good to pass up on. The Avalanche have some injury issues but this is a very resilient team that is use to battling through injuries - remember last season and last year's playoffs? The fact is that with Nathan MacKinnon's health now in doubt too this line has been pushed down very far from where it would normally be. In a situation like this the Avalanche would have been at least a 2 to 1 favorite at home and likely would have fallen into the -200 to -250 range. That said, seeing a line as low as -165 on this one as of early Tuesday is a great value. The injury situation actually gave us the value we needed to get involved. The Wild just beat the Avalanche in overtime on Sunday but that was in Minnesota. Now the Wild play their first road game in nearly two weeks and they face a Colorado club out for revenge. The Avalanche are a perfect 3-0 this season when off a loss and they have won those games by a combined score of 18 to 5. The Avs entered Sunday's game allowing an average of just 2 goals per game over an 8-game stretch. The Wild entered Sunday's game losers in 3 of their last 4. It is payback time here. Lay it! Take the AVALANCHE.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Rangers Money Line -105 over Pittsburgh Penguins at 7 PM ET - Yes the Penguins have the much better record but they have been very fortunate early this season and the injuries continue to pile up for Pittsburgh early this season.  All of their 5 wins have come by a single goal and 4 of those were after regulation and the one that was not was decided on a late goal with a minute and a half to go.  The Penguins have 4 losses this season and 3 of those losses have come by a 3-goal margin.  The point is that, thus far this season, Pittsburgh has shown they might get blown out but they have never shown that they will be on the right of a blowout.  Now they face a Rangers team that has its sights set on revenge and that is a much better team than its record indicates.  New York's last 5 losses all have come by a single goal margin and two of those were after regulation.  The Rangers are facing Pittsburgh for the 4th time this season and so far have lost a game on the aforementioned late goal in regulation plus have a shootout loss and an overtime loss against these Penguins.  After this game they don't face the Penguins for about 5 weeks and, suffice to say, New York is looking to get their payback tonight as they don't want to wait another month.  The Rangers are outshooting opponents by 6 shots on goal per game while the Penguins are only a +1 in that department.   Also, New York allowing only 3 goals per game this season while the Penguins are allowing 4 goals per game.  The Rangers have been getting the better goaltending thus far this season and will make up for the crazy overtime loss to the Penguins on Saturday by responding with a big win here on Monday.  Take the RANGERS.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Columbus Blue Jackets -137 over Chicago, Sunday at 7 PM ET - The Blackhawks had their chance against the Blue Jackets Friday and still could not get it done.  Columbus was in the 2nd game of a back to back and off a hard-fought shootout win and Chicago could have pounced on them and been very aggressive.  Now Chicago faces a rested Blue Jackets team that proved on Friday, even when tired, that they are so much better than this Blackhawks team.  Things are getting worse for Chicago too because more and more players are injured and/or dealing with quarantine issues relating to covid.  It is a real problem and note that the Blackhawks have scored only 4 goals in their last 3 games combined.  As for the Blue Jackets, they have allowed an average of only 2 goals per game in regulation time of their last 7 games.  Columbus is so tough defensively with Seth Jones and Zach Werenski making such a formidable top pairing defensively.  Now these guys, unlike Friday, are also rested coming into this one too.  We will reduce our star rating here some due to the price but this money line should still prove well worth it as these are two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum right now.  Lay the price with the away team in this one as our computer math model projects a road rout for Columbus

ASA PLAY ON 10* Montreal -120 over Calgary, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The Canadiens hot start to the season is no fluke and Montreal offers great line value here as a small-priced home favorite. In 7 games this season the Habs have yet to lose in regulation as they have 5 wins, 1 shootout loss, 1 overtime loss. In their 7 games the Canadiens have averaged scoring 4.7 goals per game! Their 4-2 win over the Flames Thursday was not even as close as the final score looks as Montreal dominated and was up 4-0 before Calgary finally got a couple of goals in the third period which was too little too late. In the Canadiens last 6 games they have had only one truly bad game defensively. In the other 5 games, the Habs have conceded an average of only 1.8 goals per game. The Flames are winless in their two road games this season, have allowed an average of 3.7 goals per game in their last 3 games overall, and also have lost each of their last 6 meetings with the Canadiens. Per our computer math model that streak will reach 7 when the final horn sounds on this one. 10* MONTREAL

ASA top play on 10* OVER 6 Ottawa Senators @ Vancouver Canucks, 10:00 PM ET - Last night's game stayed just under the total but now tonight's total has moved from a 6.5 to a 6 and there is a lot of value here based on the goalie situation.  For the Canucks, Demko played last night and saved 42 of 43 shots he faced!  Now Holtby is likely to be back in net since this is a back to back and he has struggled badly early this season and is allowing about 4 goals per game.  For the Senators, since Hogberg played last night, it is likely to be Murray between the pipes tonight and he has also allowed about 4 goals per game this season.  This is the 3rd game of a 3-game set and both clubs have been firing plenty of rubber on net as the shots on goal have been 71 and then 78 in the first two games.  So plenty of shots, some tired legs on defense, some glorious scoring chances, and a pair of goalies likely to struggle...it all adds up to a great spot to expect a very high-scoring game.  Based on value and the situation, we like OVER here. 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins over Pittsburgh Penguins, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Bruins are one of the few teams in the NHL that can flip a switch and then are lights out good!  That is how strong Boston is when they are on their game and they are definitely on their game again.  The Bruins struggled to score goals early this season as the Devils and Islanders - a pair of defensive minded hockey clubs - held them down.  Boston seemed a bit down and out and this continued through the first two periods of the first game of a two-game set with a high-quality Flyers hockey club.  Then entering that 3rd period down 2-0, the Bruins indeed flipped the switch!  They scored 4 goals in that third period, won the game in a shootout, and then proceeded to blast Philadelphia 6-1 in the next game.  That means Boston has outscored their opponent 10 to 2 over the past 4 periods of hockey.  That momentum will carry right into this game as the Bruins host the most over-rated 4-win team in the league right now.  The Penguins have won 4 straight games but the first 3 wins all came after regulation and then the most recent one was a 3-2 win in which they scored with about a minute to go after being thoroughly outplayed by the Rangers.  Pittsburgh could very easily be winless on the season and their defensive corps continues to deal with a number of injuries.  Additionally in goal they have been bouncing between Jarry and DeSmith and certainly the Penguins have not been getting the same strong goaltending that the Bruins have been.  Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 3.8 goals per game this season.  The Bruins are allowing just 1.8 goals per game in regulation time this season.  The home team is 6-0 in Penguins games this season and the home team is on a 4-0 run in Bruins games this season too.  In the last 6 meetings between Pittsburgh and Boston, the home team has taken all 6 games.  Per our computer math model the strong home team trend continues here as the Bruins strong surge in level of play continues.  Bet Boston for a 10* Top Play in NHL action Tuesday  

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Calgary -105 over Toronto, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Flames have a big rest edge here as they haven't played since Monday.  The Maple Leafs, on the other hand, haven't had more than 1 day off between games since the season started and have even played a back to back too.  Also, even if Auston Matthews is back for this one, he is not 100% and Toronto also lost some veteran leadership with Joe Thornton getting hurt.  The Leafs are off a win versus the Oilers but it was the 2nd straight game in which they were outhit plus Edmonton again had more blocked shots.  It was a tie game at the midway point of the 3rd period before Toronto got a power play goal.  The Flames, like the Oilers, can play some tough physical hockey and the Maple Leafs have only managed back to back wins once this season.  Once again, look for Toronto to fall short when coming off a win and note that the rested Flames have yet to lose a game in regulation this season and are feeling very confident with their 2-0-1 start to the season.  Calgary also has the home ice edge here plus won both match-ups with the Maple Leafs last season.  More of the same here.  10* CALGARY

ASA PLAY ON 10* Detroit +120 over Chicago, Friday at 8 PM ET - Each of these teams has scored just 9 goals so far in 4 games this season.  However, the reason the Red Wings have a pair of wins and the Blackhawks are still searching for their first one is because Chicago has allowed twice as many goals!  While Detroit has conceded only 10 times, Hawks opponents have found the back of the net 20 times already this season.  That is an average of 5 goals allowed per game and that spells trouble in this match-up.  While Chicago is playing their home opener that doesn't mean anything close to what it normally would in a non-covid season!  The teams the Red Wings have beaten are solid defensive-minded teams that were solid in the post-season last year too - Columbus and Carolina.  That said, facing a Chicago team with sub-par netminding and a young team and porous defense is very likely to bring out the best in Detroit's offensive production here.  Factoring that along with their respectable play in their own end of the rink this season and this one goes to the road team.  Grab the underdog value.  10* DETROIT

#6 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus +145 over Tampa Bay, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Ideal set up for a home dog play here. The Lightning and Blue Jackets have quite the rivalry due to recent post-season meetings including less than 6 months ago when they met in the playoffs in the bubble in Toronto. The Bolts were seeking revenge for a past playoff ouster and they got it. However, the only win in that series that was by more than a 1-goal margin was a game that Columbus won. In other words, the Blue Jackets always give Tampa Bay a tough time (including all four losses by a single goal in that series) and there is far too much value to pass up on here. The Lightning have played only 2 games this season because their match-ups with the covid-impacted Stars got postponed. That means the Blue Jackets have already played twice as many games as TB early this season. This will be a big edge for the host in this one and it is also their home opener while also being the Bolts first game on enemy ice. Per our computer math model, projections are showing that the home dog takes advantage of a foe that hasn't played in nearly a full week. 10* COLUMBUS

#84 ASA PLAY ON 10* Vancouver +115 over Montreal, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Ideal set up for a home dog play here.  Vancouver came into this season projected to have a full season points total similar to that of the Canadiens.  In other words, you would have not seen the Canucks as a home dog here in this match-up had the line been set a little over a week ago.  The reason this line is set this way is because the odds makers are having to over-adjust to match the current market perception of these two hockey clubs.  The Canadiens enter this game off back to back wins but they came against a struggling Oilers club.  Vancouver enters this game off 3 straight losses but they now are playing their home opener and also are angry after back to back defeats by a wide margin at Calgary after the season-opening series split at Edmonton.  Special teams play has been a key to the Habs hot start and the Canucks cold start this season but the numbers right now are wildly off the charts because it is early in the season.  In other words, don't over-react to early numbers and know that the Canucks are bringing their A game tonight and will likely play their most complete game of this young season.  10* VANCOUVER

#66 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia -141 over Buffalo, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Flyers got blasted by the Sabres last night.  Philadelphia came out with a listless performance right from the opening drop of the puck.  Philly was caught still celebrating their perfect start to the season with a 2-0 sweep of the in-state rival Penguins and they paid for it.  Now, after a 6-1 beatdown in which the Flyers were outshot 11-4 in the first period and then also got outshot in each of the successive periods as well, the home team will be ready for payback here.  Adding to the value is the Flyers gave some ice time yesterday to both goalies, Carter Hart and Brian Elliott, and either will be fine to return here for a full game in this back-to-back.  For the Sabres, Linus Ullmark was supposed to start yesterday's game but ended up out due to personal reasons and Buffalo called up Jonas Johansson from the taxi squad.  Johansson has only made a handful of NHL starts in his young career.  So the choices tonight are Hutton off a full game performance last night where he wasn't tested much by the Flyers or the inexperienced Johansson.  Neither scenario seems good for Buffalo and the netminder they choose will face a barrage of shots as Philly bounces back tonight.  The Flyers are projected to be one of the best teams in this division while the Sabres entered this 2-game series 0-2 and are projected to be one of the worst teams in the division.  Look for things to return to normal tonight after last night's aberration.  8* PHILADELPHIA

#51 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 goals: Montreal at Edmonton, Monday at 9:00 PM ET - This is a rematch of Saturday's game and we'll see a lot of match-ups happening in this format this season as it is part of the scheduling favored by the NHL to limit travel in this covid-19 impacted season.  We're happy to take advantage of the value being offered in this one because the Oilers are having significant goaltending issues.  Mike Smith is out so the pressure falls on Mikko Koskinen for Edmonton right now.  That being said, it is also noteworthy that the Oilers have significant defensive issues in front of their goal.  That was one of the concerns coming into the season for Edmonton.  No wonder Koskinen already has a 4.04 GAA this season and now he again faces the Montreal club that gave him major trouble in the 5-1 Oilers loss Saturday.  That one goal performance for Edmonton followed them averaging scoring 4 goals per game in their first two games.  They are loaded offensively and will respond after the Canadiens stifled them on Saturday.  On home ice, the Oilers get their offense back on track but their defensive struggles continue and this one flies over the total.  It is with good reason that this is one of the biggest totals on the board Monday.  10* OVER 6.5 goals: Montreal at Edmonton

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The Maple Leafs are looking for immediate revenge in this one after getting embarrassed 5-3 at Ottawa last night.  That being said, the value here is with the puck line.  Toronto is a -200 favorite on the money line but available right around +125 money on the puck line.  Can we expect a win by two or more goals here?  Yes!  Look for at least a margin of 2 goals in this one!  The Maple Leafs were guilty of overlooking the Senators last night but will make up for that tonight.  Ottawa comes into this season projected to be one of the worst teams in the league while the Maple Leafs are projected to be one of the best.   The Leafs simply overlooked the Sens knowing Ottawa was playing their first game in 10 months while Toronto was off an emotional 4-3 OT win over Montreal on opening night.  The set up was a bad one for the Maple Leafs last night but now on Saturday it is exactly the opposite and Toronto should roll here.  Last season the Maple Leafs won 18 road games and 15 of those victories came by a margin of at least 2 goals. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a great come back price, currently in +125 range) with Toronto is the value play here

#67 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals: Vancouver at Edmonton, Thu at 9:00 PM ET - This is a rematch of last night's game and we'll see a lot of match-ups happening in this form this season as it is part of the scheduling favored by the NHL to limit travel in this covid-19 impacted season.  We're happy to take advantage of the value being offered in this one as back to backs always tend to be particularly tough on the defensemen and also stress the goal-tending situation.  That being said, it is also noteworthy that both these hockey clubs came into this season already having concerns in those areas as being the possible weak spots of the club.  Last night's 5-3 final is likely a sign of things to come for each of these teams as the game exploded for 5 goals in the 3rd period.  The fact that the teams went a combined 0 for 6 on the power play and yet the game still totaled 8 goals says quite a lot!  Also, the fact this total opened up at a 5.5 for yesterday's game and went to a 6 and then that game flew over the total also speaks volumes.  Play this one early as we don't expect the 5.5 numbers to last very long for tonight's game either.  10* OVER 5.5 goals: Vancouver at Edmonton

#050 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado -135 over St Louis, Wed at 10:30 PM ET -If not for injuries last year both in the regular season and post-season, the Avalanche were already built to win a Stanley Cup and would have had a great chance in doing so.  Now the Avalanche have added a couple more pieces heading into this season and the sky is the limit with this team.  Colorado is on home ice now and facing a Blues club that lost a couple key contributors from last season's team.  Additionally, goalie Jordan Binnington was great in home games last season but had a 3.10 GAA on the road last season. Binnington is likely to struggle with a Colorado club that scored 3.37 goals per game last season to rang among the best in the league.  The Avalanche also allowed an average of only 2.71 goals per game to also rank among the best in the league.  The Blues could take awhile to jell early this season with their former captain, Pietrangelo, now with the Golden Knights in Vegas.  On the other hand, this Avs team is on a mission after falling short in last year's post-season due to the injury bug.  The Avalanche are on a mission for the Stanley Cup and will want to make a statement on opening night for sure. 10* COLORADO

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals +165) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

We sense a blowout here.  The Lightning are well aware that they let a great opportunity pass them by in Game 5 Saturday when they played too conservatively with a 2-1 lead and went on to lose 3-2 in double overtime. Tampa Bay will be much more aggressive in Game 6 Monday and that means when they get the lead they will keep their foot on the gas and keep expanding that lead throughout the game in our opinion.  Rather than lay the -165 price on the money line (too pricey for our liking) we can flip that to a +165 by taking the Lightning on the puck line.  Yes, that means TB must win the game by more than a 1 goal margin for us to win our bet but with the way they've outplayed the Stars for much of the past four games and considering how Game 5 played out, a Game 6 blowout seems imminent.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 when off a loss in this post-season.  The Bolts last 10 wins have come by an average margin of 2.4 goals per game.  The Stars have 11 losses in this post-season and the average margin of those defeats is 2.3 goals.  8 of the 11 Dallas defeats in the bubble in Edmonton have come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  Prior to a bit of a "miracle win" in Game 5 of this series, the Stars were only 7-7 in their 14 prior games.  You can see from all of the above why we expect the Lightning to win this game and why we expect the victory to be by a big margin.  Dallas has been held to just 1 power play goal in this series while Tampa Bay has scored 6.  Don't be surprised if special teams play a role again Monday as the Lightning win the game big and, in doing so, win Lord Stanley's Cup as well in their second opportunity to close out the series and complete the season with the ultimate prize!  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a big plus money return, currently in +165 range) with Tampa Bay is the value play here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus Dallas Stars, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

The Stars are down 2 games to 1 in this series and have to respond.  They have talent and skill up front but those guys just haven't produced yet.  However, we've seen them skate circles around the Lightning for stretches within this series.  They just haven't been able to sustain it.  The key to the value here with this total is that it is available at 5 goals and only 4 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games have totaled less than 5 goals.  We just don't see the Stars going away quietly in this series but they will again struggle to limit the chances of a talented Lightning team that has really taken it to them in the last two games.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals in NHL evening action Friday

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus Dallas Stars, Monday at 8:10 PM ET

It would be nice to get a 5.5 rather than a 5 but keep in mind the under 5 is available at plus money here and that has us going to our highest level with this one.  The fact is that only 5 of Tampa Bay's 20 games in the post-season have totaled more than 5 goals.  Saturday's Game 1 of these Stanley Cup Finals was actually quite fortunate to even get to 5 goals as the Stars scored very late in the 2nd period.  The game could have easily been just 2-1 going to the 3rd.  The only thing that pushed the total to a 5 was an empty net goal and we also feel strongly that Lightning netminder Vasilevskiy will respond off the loss with a great game here!   Keep in mind Lightning games have not seen many power plays ever since game two of the Islanders series.  Also, the Stars have allowed an average of only 1.5 goals per game their last 6 games.  The Stars have won 6 of their last 7 games and they are using defense and strong goaltending from Khudobin to do it!  Look for TB to respond off a loss but Dallas is not going to allow much and this one should turn into a real grinder.  Per our computer math model, it looks like goals will absolutely be at a premium in this high-stakes game two setting.  Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in NHL evening action Monday

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus New York Islanders, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET

With this total moving from a 5.5 on Tuesday's game to a 5 on Thursday's game we have additional value with the over in this game and won't hesitate to step in.  Yes we used the under (successfully) in Game 5 on Tuesday but, as we expected, the Lightning (with a 3-1 series lead) played that game very conservatively.  Ultimately that led to a tight loss for the Bolts in that one and we know the last thing they want is a Game 7 with this scrappy Islanders hockey club.  In other words, look for TB to come out flying in this one and try to use their skill and speed up front to take the Isles off their game.  That will lead to a much higher scoring game than we saw on Tuesday.  Getting the added value of having this total at 5 goals is the key and we're grabbing it!  Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in NHL evening action Thursday

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus New York Islanders, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET

With this total moving from a 5 to a 5.5 we have additional value with the under in this game and won't hesitate to step in.  These teams are combined 1 for 16 on the power play the last 3 games.  When special teams are not producing goals in playoff action, games tend to be lower-scoring.  Speaking of low-scoring games, 12 of Tampa Bay's 17 games in this post-season have totaled 5 or less goals.  Andrei Vasilevskiy has been fantastic in goal for the Lightning throughout this post-season.  Can the Islanders stave off elimination tonight?  If they do they will turn to their typical brand of defensive-minded back-checking hockey and note that in their 12 post-season wins they have allowed an average of only 1.3 goals per game!  As for the Bolts, they have allowed 3 or less goals in all but 2 of their 17 post-season games.  Per our computer math model, it looks like goals will absolutely be at a premium in this elimination game setting.  Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in NHL evening action Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Dallas Stars Money Line (+) over Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 8 PM ET

There is simply no way to justify this money line being this high and we like this situation so much we are going to a top play rating in Game 3 between the Stars and Golden Knights.  Vegas is simply over-valued here.  Yes they won Game 2 but now Dallas is the designated home team in Game 3 and, as such, gets the last line change.  The biggest key is how well the Stars have performed when off a loss here in this post-season.  The last 6 times that Dallas was off a loss they have gone 5-1 - winning 83% of the time!  Much has been made of the Stars struggling to score in this series but they got the early 1-0 lead in Game 1 and then played a different style the rest of the way.  Basically a defensive, preventative type of game and it worked and Dallas won Sunday.  But now, after Tuesday's loss, look for Dallas to turn back to their offensive firepower.  The last 4 wins they have in that aforementioned 5-1 mark have seen the Stars end up with 5 goals each time!  Also, speaking of struggling to score goals, Vegas had struggled prior to winning Game 3 by a final 3-0 score.  The Golden Knights are a team that had scored only four goals, two into an empty net by the way, in their previous four games.  That was during a time when they were being frustrated by the Canucks and a red hot goalie.  As for Stars goalie Khudobin, he has been playing very well and is fully capable of another strong start just like he had in Game 1 of this series.  When Khudobin enters a start off losing his prior start, he is a perfect 3-0 L3.  He has not lost back to back starts since the first two games of the Flames series (and played well in those actually) and that was nearly a month ago!  Khudobin and the Stars, per our computer math model, put forth a fantastic game here in Game 3.  Bet the Dallas Stars on the money line in evening action Thursday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Dallas Stars, Sunday at 8 PM ET

Vegas put plenty of pressure on Thatcher Demko in the series win over Vancouver but he was phenomenal between the pipes.  Dallas certainly has not been getting that kind of goaltending and that means the Golden Knights offense should pot plenty of goals here.  However, the Stars have been fantastic in the offensive zone throughout this post-season and will pressure Vegas in their D zone in a way they haven't been pressured in these playoffs.  The Golden Knights are facing their toughest test yet and also will be without enforcer Ryan Reaves (suspended) for this game.  The Stars find the open ice but the Knights do too.  The result, per our computer math model, is plenty of scoring in a highly entertaining game one.  Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL evening action Sunday

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Vancouver Canucks Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 9 PM ET

Thatcher Demko has stepped in between the pipes for the Canucks in the absence of Jacob Markstrom and what a job he has done.  He is the reason there is a Game 7 in this series and there is no way we're stepping in front of this Vancouver hockey club right now.  They believe. They absolutely believe they can win and head to the Western Conference finals.  Confidence goes a long way toward winning games and right now Demko and the Canucks have momentum and confidence on their side.  Even with getting heavily outshot in each of the last two games (and really throughout this series) Vancouver is still standing because of Demko stopping 90 of 91 shots in his two starts.  Per our computer math model this will be a very tight game likely decided by a single goal and so we're going to lay the price to have the +1.5 goals on our side with the Canucks in this one.  Vancouver got a big boost with some late scoring in Game 6.  Do not underestimate the importance of that as the Canucks now feel they can get it done in the offensive zone too.  Plus, despite two capable netminders in the form of Lehner and Fleury, how confident can those guys be the way this series has turned on a dime?  This Game 7 could be epic.  We look for a tremendous game that could even go into OT which is why we're grabbing the goal and a half with the team that has momentum on their side too!  Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and getting a very fair price, currently in -130 range) with Vancouver is the way to play this one.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Thursday at 9:45 PM ET

Thatcher Demko came up huge for the Canucks in Game 5 and that led to a 2-1 win for Vancouver.  Look for another low-scoring game here as the Canucks only managed 17 shots on goal Tuesday.  Vancouver simply hasn't been able to generate much offense in this series.  Other than the 5-goal explosion in Game 2 of the series, the Canucks have scored a total of only 5 goals in the other 4 games in this series.  At the same time though, one must respect the fact that Vancouver has held their opponents to 3 goals or less in regulation time in 12 of their 15 games in the bubble in Edmonton.  With the Golden Knights also having two red hot goalies in Marc-Andre Fluery and Robin Lehner plus the fact that the simulation report is calling for another strong game between the pipes for the Caniucks netminder in this one, it looks like goals will again be at a premium in this elimination game setting.  Bet the UNDER in Vegas in NHL late night action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) over New York Islanders, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

For the first time since a 4-game losing streak that straddled the New Year (Dec 2019-Jan 2020) the Flyers have lost back to back games.  Even with the loss in Sunday's Game 4, Philadelphia is 11-1 the last 12 times they have entered a game off a loss.  Also, #1 goalie Carter Hart will be back between the pipes for the Flyers after back-up Brian Elliott started Game 4 since it was the 2nd game of a back to back.  There are no more back to backs the rest of this series and the Flyers are well aware of that.  In other words, it is a game at a time approach as they look to battle back from the 3-1 series deficit but that is a positive for Philadelphia as they take it one at time knowing their young talented goalie Hart will be back between the pipes the rest of the series for as long as they can extend it.  Hart was in goal for the Game 3 loss and will be ready to respond.  The Flyers are a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times he has been in the crease and coming off a loss in his prior start.  The Islanders are 0-2 in the post-season in their first shot at eliminating a team and we look for that trend to continue here.  They were up 2-0 on the Panthers in the qualifying round best of five series and then lost game 3 before closing out Florida in the 4th game.  The Islanders were also up 3-0 on the Capitals in the first round best of seven series and then lost game 4 before closing out Washington in the 5th game.  Per our computer math model, the Flyers will once again (just like Game 4) hold the edge in shots on goal and the edge in hits in this one.  Look for that physical play to help lead the way to some great scoring chances for the Flyers and this time it leads to victory for Philly as the Islanders drop to 0-3 in this post-season when they have their first shot at a close out while Hart improves to 8-0 the last 8 times he has entered a start off a loss.  Bet the Philadelphia Flyers on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 9:45 PM ET

Opportunities to take a very good team off an ugly loss are generally few and far between and so when that opportunity arises you want to take full advantage.  This is one of those cases as the Avalanche entered the post-season as absolutely one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year.  However, they came out flat in Game One of this series and the Stars blitzed them early and Colorado never fully recovered in that game.  After responding in Game Three after dropping the first two games of this series, the Avs again have found themselves in a bounce back spot.  As surprising as it is to see Colorado in this elimination game situation, there is no surprise in finding that the Avalanche have won 5 of the last 6 times when off a loss.  This is still a highly talented and proud team and, while coming back from a 3-1 series deficit may be too much to ask, extending this series to a Game 6 is not too much to ask.  Per our computer math model, the Avalanche "rally the troops" here and improve to 6-1 the last 7 times they have entered a game off a loss.  Based on this low money line on the Avs in this one, the fact is that the Stars are getting a little too much respect at this point!  We'll take advantage and grab the value...lay it!  Bet the Colorado Avalanche on the money line in late night action Monday.  

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET

Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg.  9 of the last 11 times the Canucks had been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they had scored 3 or more goals in their next game.  Sure enough Vancouver responded with a 5-goal outburst in Game 2.  We used the over in that game and we'll use it again here in Game 4 after the Canucks were again shutout in Game 3.  Our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here.  Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of its 11 games in the bubble.  The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 4 of their 12 games in the bubble.  There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver continues to be a lot for the Knights to deal with.   The Canucks made adjustments to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2 and will do the same in Game 4 after falling short in Game 3.  The expectation Sunday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often as this is a back to back situation and that puts pressure on the d-men in front of the goalies as they play extra minutes in a 24 hour window.  Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up.  Though it didn't work out in Game 3 (Canucks shut out) we're sure of a Game 4 response from Vancouver.  That said, this one is likely to play out similar to the first three games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one has seen the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 8.3 goals per game thus far.  Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Sunday 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET

Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg. 9 of the last 11 times the Canucks had been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they had scored 3 or more goals in their next game. Sure enough Vancouver responded with a 5-goal outburst in Game 2. We used the over in that game and we'll use it again here though this time the total is posted at 6 goals by the odds maker. That said, we need 7 goals here but the Golden Knights have seen 6 of their 10 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals. The Canucks have seen 6 of their last 9 games total 7 or more goals. Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of its 10 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of their 11 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver continues to be a lot for the Knights to deal with. The Canucks made adjustments to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2 and will build on that in Game 3. However, you know the Golden Knights will respond off the Game 2 loss! The expectation Saturday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. This one is likely to play out similar to the first three games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one has seen the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 8.3 goals per game thus far. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

The Lightning got their wake up call in game one of this series after falling behind 3-0 in that game.  Since then they have outscored the Bruins by a count of 6-3.  In their game two overtime win by a final of 4-3, the Bolts scored 4 even strength goals while the Bruins scored just 2 even strength goals.  Boston also had just 25 shots on goal while Tampa Bay had 40 shots on goal.  Keep in mind the Lightning also outshot the Bruins in game one and the Bruins had a power play goal in that game as well.  The point is that the Lightning have been the much better team in 5 on 5 hockey and this has been particularly true ever since the first period of game one.  Tampa Bay has outshot the Bruins by 26 shots on goal starting with the second period of game one.  Boston would bully the Lightning in the past but the Bolts are now built much better for playoff hockey and that showed in game two.  They have more physicality now and the resiliency of Tampa Bay was on full display in the evening of this series with the game two win.  The ultra impressive effort in overtime gives them a ton of momentum for this Game 3 match-up.  Bet the Tampa Bay Lightning on the money line in evening action Wednesday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET

Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg.  9 of the last 11 times the Canucks have been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they have scored 3 or more goals in their next game.  We need 6 goals here and the Golden Knights, prior to this series, had seen 5 of their 8 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals.  The Canucks entered this series having seen 5 of their last 7 games total 7 or more goals.  Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here.  Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of its 9 games in the bubble.  The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of their 10 games in the bubble.  There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver is going to be a lot for the Knights to deal with.   The Canucks undoubtedly will make adjustments here to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2.  The expectation Tuesday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often.  Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up.  This one is likely to play out similar to the first two games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one saw the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 7.5 goals per game thus far.  Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Tuesday 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 9:45 PM ET

Opportunities to take a very good team off an ugly loss are generally few and far between and so when that opportunity arises you want to take full advantage.  This is one of those cases as the Avalanche are absolutely one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year but came out flat in Game One of this series and the Stars blitzed them early and Colorado never fully recovered in that game.  They also saw goalie Philipp Grubauer suffer a leg injury and he is expected to miss some time now. That is part of what is impacting this line but Pavel Francouz now gets the call between the pipes and he was excellent this season (21-7 with a .923 save percentage).  Also, in his first two starts of this post-season he has allowed a total of just 2 goals in 2 games.  One of those starts was in the round robin against this Dallas team and he shut out the Stars in a 4-0 Avalanche win!  Backing up Grubauer is a veteran in Michael Hutchinson so we are comfortable with the Avs goal-tending situation entering this game.  The Stars are still without Ben Bishop so it has been Anton Khudobin between the pipes.  He has allowed 3 or more goals in 5 of his 8 post-season appearances.  He is a solid goalie but the Avalanche have scored 7 goals on 71 shots against him in this post-season (he was on the wrong end of the aforementioned 4-0 round robin game).  The Avalanche have now lost 3 games in the Edmonton bubble.  After the first two losses they responded with a win each time and those two victories came by a combined score of 10 to 1.  The loss to the Stars in Game 1 of this series will actually prove to be a good thing for Colorado as it is the wake up call they needed to know that things will not come easy in the post-season.  While only about half the players "showed up" in the assessment by their head coach in Game 1, you can expect "all hands on deck" for a very motivated Avs team that can't wait to get back on the ice to make up for Saturday's poor effort.  There is excellent line value with the Avalanche here as a moderately priced favorite after the line moved from the -160 range to as low as -140 this morning.  The fact is that the Stars are getting a little too much respect at this point!  We'll take advantage and grab the value...lay it!  ASA TOP PLAY 10* Colorado Avalanche on the money line in late night action Monday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET

We need 6 goals here and the Golden Knights have seen 5 of their 8 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals.  The Canucks have seen 5 of their last 7 games total 7 or more goals.  Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here.  Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of its 8 games in the bubble.  The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of their 9 games in the bubble.  There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver is going to be a handful for the Knights to deal with.  In other words, both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often in this contest.  Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up.  This one is likely to play out similar to Game 1 of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one saw the Stars and Avalanche combine for 8 goals last night.  Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Sunday 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on St Louis Blues Money Line (-) over Vancouver Canucks, Friday at 9:45 PM ET

The Blues blew a 3-1 lead in losing 4-3 to the Canucks on Wednesday.  Of course that was a key swing game in the series as they were tied at 2 games apiece entering that one.  However, the Blues didn't win the Stanley Cup last season without plenty of resiliency and the core group of that hockey club remains in St Louis.  The Blues will be ready to fight back hard in a win or go home situation in Game 6.  St Louis had defensive breakdowns and, to an extent, quit skating as well after they got the 3-1 lead.  They'll play the full 60 minutes in Game 6 after what happened in Game 5 and their toughness, physicality and experience will pay off for them in staving off elimination.  The Canucks are talented but they're still young and, per our computer math model, this is a series that is going to go the full seven games!  Lay the small price here.  Bet the St Louis Blues on the money line in late night action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Calgary Flames Money Line (+) over Dallas Stars, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET

It is hard enough to beat a team back to back in the playoffs let alone three straight!  That is part of the reasoning here for backing the hungry dog in this spot.  The Stars have won 2 straight in the series to now take a 3-2 series lead and this is a win or go home game for the Flames.  We expect Calgary to respond accordingly.  The Stars haven't had a 3-game winning streak since mid-February and we don't expect that to change here.  Dallas wrapped up the regular season on a 6-game losing streak.  Also, in the bubble in Edmonton the Stars had lost 4 of the first 6 games before scoring a couple of very tight victories in Games 4 and 5 of this series.  The Flames haven't lost 3 straight games since early February and had won 14 of their last 22 games prior to losing back to back tight games to the Stars.  The odds favor this series going 7 games and, per our computer math model, the Flames have high probability for an upset win here.  Bet the Calgary Flames on the money line in late night action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (+) over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 4:00 PM ET

The Hurricanes have been alternating goalies in this post-season and Petr Mrazek is likely to get the start in Game 5. In our opinion he has been the better of the two goalies and James Reimer's poor decision-making that led to the Bruins first goal in Game 4 helped spark the amazing Boston comeback. Carolina was up 2-0 in the third period of Game 4 when all hell broke loose and the Bruins scored 4 straight goals in a span of under 7 minutes! The Hurricanes are now down 3-1 in the series after letting that game slip away but head coach Rod Brind'Amour has strong team chemistry with this hockey club and we know they will be ready to respond in this must win game on Wednesday. The Canes also got good news yesterday as Jordan Staal, their team captain, was able to practice. He had taken a big hit and exited Monday's game but appears fine and ready to go here for this Game 5 must win situation. Factoring all of the above as well as our computer math model and the fact we have a solid underdog price here, we're grabbing the dog in this one! Bet the Carolina Hurricanes on the money line in afternoon action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on New York Islanders Money Line (-) over Washington Capitals, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET

The Islanders took 3 of 4 from the Panthers in the qualifying round to eliminate Florida from the post-season in convincing fashion.  In fact, even in the game they lost to the Panthers, the Islanders were the better team.  This hockey club has been "in the zone" ever since they got to the bubble it seems.  The Islanders are well-coached under Barry Trotz and, of course, this is the same Trotz that led the Capitals to a Stanley Cup Championship season in 2018 when they beat the Golden Knights to win it all.  After not being brought back by the Caps, Trotz went to the Islanders.  Now he is showing the Capitals how it is done once again and you know he is itching for the sweep here to put an exclamation point on it.  We see him getting it as the Islanders have won 6 of 7 post-season games while Washington has won just 1 of 6 games under the bubble in Toronto.  The Capitals are a good team and will be giving it their all once again but the Islanders continue to stifle and frustrate them.  Not only has Varlamov been great between the pipes but also the Islanders held the Caps to just 20 shots on goal in regulation time of Game 3.  Per our computer math model, the Isles finish off the Capitals here.  Bet the New York Islanders on the money line in evening action Tuesday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Arizona Coyotes, Monday at 5:30 PM ET

The Avalanche are nearly a $2.00 favorite on the money line here so the value, if you want to play Colorado (like we do!) in this one, is definitely with utilizing the puck line.  By laying the 1.5 goals with the Avs, you can get a plus money return in the +150 range.  We look for a dominating win from Colorado here.  They outshot the Coyotes 51 to 21 in Game 3 but ended up on the wrong end of a 4-2 final.  Game 2 was a 3-2 Avalanche win that easily could have ended 4-2 and Game 1 was a 3-0 Avs win.  The point is that expecting this game to end up decided by a margin of 2 or more goals is certainly not expecting too much and we love the big plus money being offered with one of the best teams in the NHL looking to bounce back off a loss.  Again, the Avalanche dominated that game but fell short on the scoreboard.  In Monday's Game 4 it is payback time.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a fantastic return, currently in +150 range) with Colorado is the value play here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on St Louis Blues Money Line (-) over Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET

The Blues are the defending Stanley Cup Champions but are down 0-2 in this series.  We are expecting a huge response from St Louis on Sunday night.  The Blues have actually outshot the Canucks by a combined margin of 68 to 47 in the first two games of this series.  The problem has been that Vancouver has actually scored 3 special teams goals in EACH game!  The Blues simply must stay out of the penalty box (and be better on the penalty kill as needed) and this is a Cup winning team that certainly knows that fact.  Additionally, St Louis might switch to goalie Jake Allen for this one.  He looked fantastic in his lone appearance in this post-season when he faced the Stars in the round robin last week and nearly got a shutout in the eventual 2-1 shootout loss.  The fact is that Blues netminder Jordan Binnington wasn't really to blame for the OT loss in Game 2 and certainly the St Louis net is in good shape whether it is Binnington or Allen between the pipes.  Allen would give the Blues a spark here but they'll be "sparking" either way in our opinion.  They had a great chance to win Game 2 but fell just short.  Give Canucks credit as they have been playing very well and Bo Harvat has been playing fantastic hockey.  However, the gritty Blues are trending the right direction and played a very strong game on Friday.  With another strong game on Sunday, this time they will be rewarded for their efforts.  Keep in mind the first game between these teams was tied at 2 heading to the third period and the second game went into overtime.  The Blues have played better than what they have to show for it and they know it.  They will simply be relentless in Game 3 here and refuse to be denied.  Look for the defending Stanley Cup Champions to put it all together tonight and get right back into this series.  There is excellent line value with the Blues here as a small favorite as the Canucks are getting a little too much respect at this point!  We'll take it and grab the value...lay it!  ASA TOP PLAY 10* St Louis Blues on the money line in late night action Sunday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: 5 goals +120 in Columbus Blue Jackets versus Tampa Bay Lightning, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET

We were hoping to see 5.5 come up on this total but it still a great value at under 5 and plus money.  These teams continue to play "grudge match" games and we just don't see either team having a breakout game here.  These teams even played a 5 OT marathon in Game 1 and so there have been many periods without goals throughout this series in just the first two games alone.  The fact is that none of Tampa Bay's 5 games played under the bubble in Toronto have totaled more than 5 goals.  The Blue Jackets, in regulation time of their games, have averaged scoring only 2.2 goals per game and are allowing just 1.7 goals per game.  Both clubs are getting fantastic goaltending and Columbus (3-1 winners in Game 2) knows they must continue to force the Bolts to play their style and the Blue Jackets love the physical, tight, low-scoring games.  With such a strong defensive pairing in Zach Werenski and Seth Jones, look for more of the same here on Saturday.  Bet the UNDER in Columbus in NHL evening action Saturday 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Avalanche versus Arizona Coyotes, Friday at 2 PM ET

Under the bubble in Edmonton the Coyotes scored well when they faced the Oilers.  In fact, dating back to the regular season, Arizona entered this series against the Avalanche having seen 7 of their last 10 games total at least 6 goals.  The Coyotes are facing the Avs on the same sheet of ice on which they faced the Oilers of course.  But the problem for Arizona is they were "back on their heels" in game 1 against Colorado and were not aggressive at all.  The Coyotes mustered only 14 shots on goal for the game as a result.  Of course that won't cut it and they are well aware of that.  Look for Arizona to open things up a bit here in game two.  The Coyotes don't have a choice.  They know the Avalanche have so much firepower and skate so well and Arizona has to try and match them and just continue to trust Darcy Keumper in goal.  We see this series as a similar match-up to the Vegas/Chicago match-up.  In that one in game 1 the Blackhawks weren't aggressive enough and came out and lost a low-scoring game.  Sure enough, yesterday's game 2, though the Hawks still lost, played out much differently as the game had 6 goals (tied 3-3) through the first two periods.  Look for a similar result here and our computer simulation report is forecasting at least 6 goals to be scored in this one.  Bet the OVER in Colorado in NHL afternoon action Friday 

ASA PLAY 7* on Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) over Columbus Blue Jackets,Thursday at 3:00 PM ET

As a general rule we shy away from this price range (-165/-170) in money line sports but in the post-season the edges are sometimes so strong that the value is there even in a price range like this.  Columbus is at a severe disadvantage here after Game 1 of this series went 5 overtimes on Tuesday!  The Blue Jackets are the only team in this post-season that had to win a Game 5 in the qualifying round just to get here.  Columbus was very resilient in knocking off a talented Maple Leafs team Sunday to make up for their inexcusable collapse in Game 4 of that series on Friday.  However, as a result of playing so many games and now Game 1 of this series going 5 overtimes, the Blue Jackets have averaged nearly a game of hockey per day over the past 8 days!  That makes recovery tough and the Lightning situation is much better as they only had to play in the round robin last week and so just had 3 games and they were much less intense than what Columbus had.  When you factor all that in as well as the fact that the Blue Jackets lost Game 1 of this series in the multi-overtime thriller, Columbus could be spent both physically and mentally heading into this one.  Look for the Lightning, still stinging from last year's playoff sweep ouster at the hands of the Blue Jackets, to take full advantage and win Game 2 in convincing fashion.  ASA PLAY Tampa Bay Lightning on the money line in afternoon action Thursday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on New York Islanders Money Line (+) over Washington Capitals, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET

We'll take the teacher over the pupil in this one.  The Islanders are coached by Barry Trotz.  He led the Capitals to the Stanley Cup Championship two years ago.  Then that summer Washington wouldn't give him the contract he wanted (and, arguably) had earned via leading the Caps to win it all!  Trotz ended up with the Islanders and his assistant, Todd Rierden, is now the Capitals coach.  The Islanders are off a fantastic effort against the Panthers in which they dominated Florida throughout much of the series which lasted only 4 games.  New York plays a defensive style that stifles and frustrates opponents and that will be the key again here.  The Capitals were not very impressive in their level of play in the round robin that preceded this series for them.  Trotz certainly knows many of the Washington players and their tendencies very well and he is a very good coach.  Additionally, the Islanders have won 6 of the last 8 playoff series between these teams but lost the most recent one between these teams in 2015.  Per our computer math model, payback begins here with a Game One upset win for the underdog in this one.  ASA PLAY New York Islanders on the money line in afternoon action Wednesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Calgary Flames Money Line (+) over Dallas Stars, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET

The Stars scored a total of only 4 goals in regulation time of their 3 games in the round robin.  This is a Dallas team that has just one win in its last nine games and that win came in the shootout Sunday against St Louis.  The Stars only sent it to the shootout courtesy of a very late goal with just a minute left in the game.  The last win in regulation time for Dallas came all the way back on February 25th.  Calgary comes into this game surging and already in playoff mode as, while the Stars were playing round robin games, the Flames were playing in a best of five qualifying round series against Winnipeg.  Not only did Calgary close out the Jets in 4 games, they scored an average of 4 goals per game!  Yes, the Flames have averaged 4 goals per game since action resumed while the Stars have totaled only 4 goals since action resumed.  Big difference and, per our computer math model, the Flames skill in the offensive zone proves to be the difference maker as they take Game One of this series.  ASA PLAY 10* Calgary Flames on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Boston Bruins Money Line (-) over Washington Capitals, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET

This is a game in the round robin for seeding purposes and if Boston loses they play Carolina and if they win they play the Islanders in the first round of the post-season.  While neither of those teams is particularly appealing to face the Bruins would likely rather avoid a Carolina team that swept the Rangers out of the playoffs.  Not only that, Boston simply needs (and is hungry) for something positive to take out of this round robin and this is their last chance to get a positive before the true playoff pressure begins.  While the Capitals have earned a point in the post-season, the Bruins are still without a point in this round robin.  Also, Washington saw Nicklas Backstrom miss practice Friday plus John Carlson missed the most recent game and could still be out again here as well.  Additionally, the Capitals Lars Eller left the bubble for the birth of a child.  All in all, the Bruins are set up better here in terms of healthy bodies and also have the motivational factor as well.  Boston won the most recent meeting between these teams by a count of 7-3, and per our computer math model, the Bruins are poised to dominate this one as well.  ASA TOP PLAY 10* Boston Bruins on the money line in very early action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on New York Islanders Money Line (-) over Florida Panthers, Friday at 12:00 PM ET

The Islanders took the first two games of this series and, including regular season action, that made it 6 straight wins for the Islanders in meetings with Florida.  The Panthers finally got a win in Wednesday's game as they took advantage of a couple of mistakes by New York.  Florida potted two power play goals in the game but, once again, anyone watching that contest as well as having watched this entire series would agree that the Islanders have a "next level" that the Panthers just don't.  The reason for the dominance the Islanders have in recent meetings with Florida is because their system frustrates the Panthers and that is why Florida scores so few goals in meetings between these teams.  The problem in Game 3 was the Islanders, up 2-0 in the series, relied on that a bit too much and didn't show their "next level" for stretches during that game.  Note that this is the first time we have seen these 5-game series in the NHL post-season in about 35 years.  They are only being used because of how the pandemic impacted the finish to the regular season.  The key point about the 5-game series though is that NHL teams are 56-1 when they take a 2-0 lead in the series.  In other words the odds strongly favor the Islanders winning this series and we know they don't want this to go to a winner-takes-all game 5.  With that being said, the Islanders bring their "A game" from the opening drop of the puck and that leads to a solid game 4 win.  The Panthers have only won one playoff series in franchise history and that was 24 years ago when they made a run all the way to the Stanley Cup finals before falling to the Avalanche in a sweep.  Florida has been one and done in the playoffs ever since then and have only scored 1 even strength goal per game so far in this series.  The Islanders let Game 3 get away from them but won't make the same mistake here.  Even though Jonahan Huberdeau, Florida's leading scorer, will likely find a way to play in this game, his leg injury could absolutely impact his effectiveness.  The Islanders are such a frustrating team to play against and they again stifle the Panthers here but you'll also see a little more from New York in the offensive zone in this one too.  Before that loss in Game 3, the Islanders had won 6 straight meetings with the Panthers by a combined score of 15 to 8.  Per our computer math model here a 3 to 1 win in the forecast for the small money line favorite in this one.  ASA TOP PLAY New York Islanders on the money line in very early action Friday.

ASA PLAY 10* on Edmonton Oilers Money Line (-) over Chicago Blackhawks, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET

As expected, the Oilers bounced back strong in Game 2 to knock off the Blackhawks. This followed a Game 1 win for Chicago in which power play opportunities and loose play resulted in a very high-scoring upset win. While the win was impressive and the Blackhawks do have a nice mix of veteran talent and some young up and comers, the problem for the Blackhawks is they are still short of the level of team (and coaching) that Edmonton has. Lets not forget that the Hawks were a #12 seed for this qualifying round so this is one of the biggest mismatches on the board and the Oilers are starting to establish their will after a rough start in Game 1. Now the Oilers take it up yet another notch for this crucial "swing game" in Game 3. Yes in a 5-game series that is tied at 1 game apiece Game 3 becomes critical. The only reason that the NHL is using these 5-game series again (for the first time since the mid-80s) is because of this special qualifying round for this season's playoffs. History in NHL shows that over 80% of the time that a 5-game series is tied 1-1 the team that wins Game 3 goes on to win the series. In other words this game is critical. Both teams are aware of that fact of course but Edmonton is the team that can raise their game to the higher level. That is why this is a #5 vs #12 match-up. We would recommend playing this one early in the day as the price has dropped some this morning but we believe that was a set up per se and this price will now be rising as the day goes on. ASA PLAY 10* Edmonton on the money line in late night action Wednesday.

ASA NHL PLAY 7* Carolina Hurricanes money line (-) over New York Rangers, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET

Not only are the Rangers down 2-0 in this best of five series, they appear disinterested.  The Rangers are realizing they are out-classed in this one.  The Hurricanes have been in playoff mode since the drop of the puck in Game One and simply have proven to be too much for the Rangers.  Carolina is so strong in terms of their defensemen that they're not allowing the Rangers to get anything going in the offensive zone.  Historically teams that are down 2-0 in a five game series are toast with only 1 in 55 ever having come back.  The Rangers are aware of this and we just don't see them having enough fight here to get past a Hurricanes team that seems bound and determined to close this out as quickly as possible.  The Canes long playoff run last season appears to be benefiting them greatly in this post-season and they are ready to advance from the qualifying round while the Rangers get ready to take a shot at the first pick in this year's draft.  New York just hasn't been able to rise to the level that the Canes have and, with no rest between games (these teams played yesterday) we don't see that changing here.  Bet Carolina on the money line in Tuesday evening hockey action.

ASA NHL PLAY 6* Pittsburgh Penguins money line (-) over Montreal Canadiens, Monday at 8:00 PM ET

With this line moving up into the -170 range as of gameday morning it is a little higher number than we would normally lay in a money line sport but post-season hockey is a different animal and we love the Penguins in this spot. One could argue that Pittsburgh should be a $2.00 favorite in this one. This is a #5 seed versus #12 seed in the NHL's unique 2020 postseason set-up and is arguably the most lopsided match-up of them all though credit is certainly owed to the Canadiens for stealing Game 1. The Penguins are healthy and are well-coached and, as the designated home team for this one, they have the "last change" advantage too. So even though this game is being played on "neutral ice" in Toronto, there is still an edge for the Pens. The Canadiens have had a rough season and we can't see Pittsburgh letting this game slip away and falling into an 0-2 deficit in a 5-game series! Carey Price, Montreal's goalie, would have to play out of his mind for the Habs to steal this game. After facing nearly 40 shots in Game 1 Price is really going to be under fire in Game 2 as well and look for this veteran Pens team to make sure they get plenty of screens in front of Price in this one. The Canadiens aren't overly impressive in the offensive zone and simply won't be able to score enough to keep up with Crosby and Malkin - the latter of whom is sure to bounce back huge after a poor Game 1 effort - and an angry Penguins team in this one. Bet Pittsburgh on the money line in Monday evening hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Toronto Maple Leafs versus Columbus Blue Jackets, Sunday at 8 PM ET

The Blue Jackets like to play tight defensive-minded hockey but the Maple Leafs won't allow for that.  The strength of Toronto is their speed and their skilled forwards.  Columbus head coach John Tortorella already announced some lineup changes to try and infuse more speed into his lines.  That said, we're looking for a fast-paced and a bit of a helter-skelter type game in the opener of this 5-game series.  The Maple Leafs are known for early exits from the post-season as it has been over a decade since they won a playoff series.  That said, if they again fall short here it is because their goal-tending lets them down.  We look for a high-scoring game here in game one regardless of who proves victorious.  We simply don't trust the play of the Maple Leafs in their defensive zone but we know that the forwards of Toronto are going to give the Blue Jackets a lot of trouble at the other end of the ice!  Yes, 4 of the 5 games yesterday totaled 5 or less goals but there is a reason this total is set at 6 goals and we won't let the bigger number keep us away.  This one has the makings of a game that will see the lamp lit early and often behind each netminder!  Bet the OVER in Toronto in NHL evening action Sunday 

ASA NHL PLAY 6* Pittsburgh Penguins money line (-) over Montreal Canadiens, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET

With this line dropping into the -150 range as of gameday morning it has fell well within our price range compared to the value being offered here.  One could argue that Pittsburgh should be a $2.00 favorite in this one.  This is a #5 seed versus #12 seed in the NHL's unique 2020 postseason set-up and is arguably the most lopsided match-up of them all.  The Penguins are healthy and are well-coached and, as the designated home team for this one, they have the "last change" advantage too.  So even though this game is being played on "neutral ice" in Toronto, there is still an edge for the Pens.  The Canadiens have had a rough season and to win Game 1 of a 5-game series is a huge edge.  That said, we can't see Pittsburgh letting this game slip away.  Carey Price, Montreal's goalie, would have to play out of his mind for the Habs to steal game one and we just don't see that happening.  His head may not even be in it as he was a bit reluctant to even play in this post-season with the pandemic raging on.  The Canadiens aren't overly impressive in the offensive zone and simply won't be able to score enough to keep up with Crosby and Malkin and a well-coached Penguins hockey club.  Bet Pittsburgh on the money line in Saturday evening hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Avalanche versus New York Rangers, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET

The Avalanche ran into a red hot Kings team that has been playing the role of spoiler and stifling teams.  That resulted in a 3-1 loss for Colorado at Los Angeles Monday but that ended a streak of 3 straight games that totaled at least 7 goals.  Per our computer math model, this total being set at 6 is offering substantial line value on the over because of the situation.  Colorado should bounce back in the offensive zone now that they are back home and facing a Rangers team playing the 2nd night of a back to back.  Also, New York should match the production of the Avalanche here as the Rangers come into this game having scored at least 4 goals in 3 straight games.  The Rangers are off a 4-2 win at Dallas.  While that game totaled 6 goals, the Rangers entered that contest with 8 of 10 games totaling 7 or more goals.  High-scoring games continue to be the norm for the Rangers in recent weeks and we see that trend continuing tonight as the Avalanche will be extra aggressive off a 3-1 loss.  Bet the OVER in Colorado in NHL early late night action Wednesday 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators money line (+) over Montreal Canadiens, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Both these teams battling hard as they make a push for the playoffs.  However, only one team (the Predators) has been getting the job done.  Juuse Saaros, Nashville netminder, is coming off back to back shutouts in his last two starts and he has a 1.84 GAA and a sizzling hot .948 save percentage which has led the way to him winning 5 of his last 7 starts.  Overall, the Predators have won 8 of 13 games including key back to back games over the Stars which gives Nashville a ton of momentum heading into this game.  On the other hand, Montreal is falling apart.  The Canadiens are off back to back losses and have been defeated in 9 of their past 13 games.  Montreal has allowed 3 or more goals in 11 of 13 games.  The Predators Saros has allowed a total of just 10 goals in his last 6 starts!  The Canadiens Carey Price has allowed 4 goals in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Nashville has won 4 straight meetings with Montreal and outscored them 7-2 in last season's series sweep.  Of course home is priced into this line which is why get a very small price on a Predators team that would be a large favorite if they were the home team in this one.  With that being said, Montreal has won only 8 of its last 27 games on home ice so there is tremendous value in fading the Canadiens here.  Our computer math model also notes the recent power play struggles of the Habs and strong recent success for the Preds as being another key edge in what should be a road rout.  Bet Nashville on the money line in Tuesday hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida Panthers money line (+) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

The Blues are in a back to back spot and off a shutout win on the road at Chicago in divisional action last night.  The scheduling advantage goes to a rested Panthers team in this one.  St Louis started Jake Allen in goal last night and he got the shutout win.  Jordan Binnington will get the start here and he is off a loss and allowed 3 goals in his most recent start.  That was the 2nd time in 4 starts that he has allowed 3 or more goals - he allowed 5 in the other one!  Binnington will be opposed by Florida's Chris Driedger in this one.  He has been fantastic in the crease since he returned from injury.  Driedger has allowed a total of just 3 goals in his 2 starts since coming back.  The Panthers were off yesterday and now Driedger and his teammates will look to build off Saturday's 4-1 win versus Montreal.  Florida has been playing well in their own zone and has allowed a total of only 7 goals in regulation time of their last 4 games.  The Blues have allowed 10 goals in regulation time of their last 3 home games.  Per our computer math model, the Panthers score the upset over the defending champs and get payback for getting swept by St Louis last season.  Bet Florida on the money line in Monday hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago Blackhawks money line (+) over St Louis Blues, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET

The Blackhawks Corey Craword has been fantastic ever since the calendar hit 2020.  He has had one bad start in 18 starts and, ironically, it came at St Louis!  Now Crawford gets a shot at revenge on home ice against a Blues team that potted 6 goals against him last month.  In Crawford's other 17 starts in 2020 he has allowed a total of only 37 goals.  He has not allowed more than 3 goals in any of those 17 starts.  With him playing well between the pipes and Chicago coming off an upset loss to the Red Wings, this is the perfect spot in which to back the Blackhawks as a home dog.  St Louis also will be hungry here as they enter this game off a 4-2 loss at New Jersey.  However, the home ice and the revenge factor are keys in this game.  Chicago had won 4 in a row prior to the loss at Detroit and the Blackhawks simply ran into a hungry Original Six rival that got the best of them in a spoiler role in that game.  This situation is much different and the Blues loss to the Devils was their 10th road loss in their last 14 games away from home.  Per our computer math model, the road struggles continue here.  Bet Chicago on the money line in Sunday hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

Carter Hart, barring any unforeseen circumstances, is the confirmed goalie for the Flyers tonight and that is a key.  Hart has been incredible on home ice all season long and did it again in Philadelphia's 4-1 win over the Hurricanes on Thursday.  Hart is 19-2-2 with a 1.64 GAA on home ice this season.  The Sabres counter with Carter Hutton.  Buffalo's Hutton has allowed 17 goals in his last 5 road starts.  He has been respectable in most starts but the Flyers Hart has been out of this world spectacular in his home starts.  Not only that but 14 of Philadelphia's last 15 wins have come by a multiple-goal margin.  That is why there is a comfort level here with laying the 1.5 goals on the Flyers and getting a plus money price (currently +120) back in return.  This is a suburb value on a 2 to 1 money line favorite that enters this game on an 8-game winning streak and generally always wins by 2 or more goals.  The Sabres have lost 5 straight games and each of the last 4 defeats have been by 2 or more goals.  Buffalo has gone 6 straight games without scoring more than 2 goals.  The Flyers have scored 4 or more goals in regulation time of all but 1 of their victories during this 8-game winning streak.  Per our computer math model, you can expect a home blowout in this one!  Laying the 1.5 goals with Philadelphia is the value play here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Buffalo Sabres versus Pittsburgh Penguins, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Penguins finally are getting healthier again and it already paid off with a 7-3 win over Ottawa Tuesday.  Pittsburgh now seeks to avenge a 5-2 home loss to the Sabres less than two weeks ago.  Still fresh in their minds, that loss insures that the Penguins won't let up in this game either.  Even with a big lead the Pens will keep the hammer down.  Pittsburgh scored 5 goals in their last visit to Buffalo.  The Sabres are expected to start Jonas Johansson in this one.  The Buffalo netminder has allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of his last 4 starts and is still very inexperienced.  The 24 year old goalie has made only 4 NHL starts and is only up with the Sabres because of the Linus Ullmark injury.  The now-healthy Penguins will pepper him with shots in this one.  In Pittsburgh's crease tonight it will be Matt Murray.  The Pens netminder has allowed 14 goals in his last 4 starts.  In all 4 games Murray has allowed at least 3 goals.  With Johansson also consistently allowing at least 3 goals per start in his limited action it was not surprising to see that our computer math model is calling for each team to get to 3 goals in a game that should get to at least 4-3 tonight.  There have been only 3 unders in the Sabres last 11 games against teams with a winning record.  They are known for struggling in their D zone when facing top tier competition.  The over is 3-0 in Pittsburgh's last 3 games against Eastern Conference teams.  Bet the OVER in Buffalo in NHL early evening action Thursday 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vancouver Canucks versus Arizona Coyotes, Wednesday at 10:35 PM ET

13 of the Canucks last 15 games have totaled at least 6 goals.  The total in this game was set at 5.5 goals.  This is even with Vancouver being without their top goaltender, Jacob Markstrom.  The Coyotes have a tendency toward lower-scoring games but have exploded for 12 goals in the two victories they have had during their current 2-1 stretch entering this game.  Arizona is out for revenge after a 3-1 loss in their visit here in mid-January.  The Coyotes had scored an average of 4 goals in 4 games against the Canucks prior to that one.  Per our computer math model, each team shows high statistical probability for reaching the 3-goal mark in this one.  The Canucks O/U is 6-1 this season in home games with a total set at 5.5 goals.  Bet the OVER in Vancouver in NHL late night action Wednesday 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins money line (+) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

This will be the Bruins final trip to Tampa Bay this season (these teams meet again in Boston Saturday).  The Bruins have been patiently waiting for this revenge game as they lost the first two games to the Lightning this season including their most recent match-up nearly 3 months ago here in Tampa.  This is a divisional match-up and Boston knows they need this game to maintain a solid position at the top of the Atlantic as well as to prove they can get beat their nemesis.  The Bolts knocked the Bruins out of the 2018 playoffs in the second round and Boston hasn't forgotten.  The Bruins enter this game playing some of their best hockey of the season in recent weeks.  There have been a couple hiccups along the way but Boston has won 13 of 16 games ahead of this divisional showdown.  The Bruins Tuukka Rask got back on track with a shutout against the Islanders in New York in his most recent start.  On the other hand, Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy is struggling badly of late.  Vasilevskiy has allowed 22 goals in his last 5 starts!  The Lightning netminder has a poor .854 save percentage during this stretch and he will be facing a revenge-minded Bruins team that is sure to pepper him with shots in this one!  Another key in this game is that Steven Stamkos is out for the Bolts.  These factors are why Tampa Bay is such a small home favorite here and don't be fooled by the low money line on the home team.  Per our computer math model, the road team pulls away for a comfortable win here as Vasilevskiy's struggles continue and the Lightning lose for the 5th time in their past 6 games!  Bet Boston on the money line in Tuesday hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Edmonton Oilers money line (+) over Nashville Predators, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

The Oilers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams.  The Predators use to be tough to beat at Nashville but that certainly hasn't been the case this season.  As a result, Nashville is truly over-priced here.  The Predators won 6 of their first 8 home games this season but they have since lost 15 of 25 on home ice!  The Oilers have lost their two most recent road games but have been a solid road team this season.  Edmonton had gone 18-12-2 on enemy ice before the back to back losses (one in a shootout).  The Predators have oushot the Oilers only once in the past 5 meetings between these clubs.  Per our computer math model, Edmonton will control puck possession and again have more shots on goal in this match-up.  Some of the recent losses for the Oilers were when Connor McDavid was out.  In games in which he has played, the Oilers have gone 12-4-2 the last 18.  Also, he has 4 goals and 8 assists in his last 10 games against the Predators.  Bet Edmonton on the money line in evening Monday hockey action.

ASA NHL PLAY 8* ON New Jersey Devils money line (+) over Anaheim Ducks, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET

The Devils have been playing their best hockey of the season but are off back to back OT losses which makes this a great spot to back them. New Jersey has been getting great goaltending from both Schneider and Blackwood.. In the last 9 games started by either of those netminders, the Devils have allowed a total of just 11 goals (not including overtime of course). This is the ideal spot to look for an upset from New Jersey as they face Anaheim off back to back tight wins including knocking off the Penguins in their most recent game. The Ducks had lost 4 straight (and 7 of 9) prior to securing back to back very tight wins. Prior to the 3-2 win over Pittsburgh, Anaheim had allowed an average of 4 goals over a 6-game stretch of home games. Home ice is over-rated here and the Devils have been getting the better goaltending. Bet New Jersey on the money line in evening Sunday hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Minnesota Wild money line (+) over Washington Capitals, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET

Alex Stalock is expected to get the start for the Wild here. He has allowed 2 or less goals in 9 of his last 13 starts. Minnesota has been surging and that has them right back in the playoff race in the West. As for the Capitals, they are slumping badly and now have the Flyers nipping at their heels for the top spot in the Metro Division. Washington has lost 7 of 10 while the Wild have won 5 of 6. The Capitals have lost 4 straight road games and, per our computer math model, the slump for the road team continues here. Bet Minnesota on the money line in evening Sunday hockey action.