Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER the total.  This is a great pitching matchup tonight in the desert.  The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to rookie Ryne Nelson -- their Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021 -- who will be making his second career start.  His debut was a sparkling one, as he shut out the Padres over 7 innings last Monday, in a 5-0 Arizona win.  Nelson struck out seven, and allowed just four hits, while walking none.  His mound opponent this evening will be southpaw All-Star, Tyler Anderson, who is 13-3 this season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  In his two prior starts vs. Arizona this season, Anderson gave up just two runs and 13 baserunners over 13 innings, with 13 strikeouts.  The Dodgers are 11-6-1 UNDER the total in Anderson's last 18 starts.  And six of the previous seven games between these teams at Arizona have gone UNDER the total.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning 'under' the total.  After a close game on Wednesday followed by a blowout on Saturday, the Stanley Cup Finals series switches to Florida from Colorado.  Watching the Avs play hockey, one has a tendency to think that they could scored seven or eight goals in 60 minutes on the moon if given the chance.  But what people might forget is that the Avs are a much more prolific scoring team at home than on the road.  In their 41 games in Denver this season, the Avs put the puck in the net an average of 4.15 times per game (2nd in the NHL).  On the road however, that figure drops to 3.37.   And when you add to this the fact that the Bolts were one of the stingiest home teams in the league this season, allowing an average of just 2.49 GPG at Amalie Arena, then the version of the Avalanche you see tonight in Game 3 could be a lot different than the one that dropped seven goals in Game 2.  The under is 5-0 in Tampa's last five home games and 7-0 in its last seven playing on one day of rest.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 6 between Golden State and Boston.  The last 2 games resulted in 204 and 198 points, with each going 'under' the total by 9.5 and 13.0 points, respectively.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on this Thursday, as it falls into NBA totals systems of mine with records of 163-106, 74-43 and 169-95.  Additionally, Boston has gone 'under' in its last 4 elimination games (and 17 of its last 26 elimination games).  And the Warriors have gone 'under' in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals game.  The Braves will hand the ball to their southpaw ace, Max Fried, who has pitched quality starts in eight of his last nine outings, including 5 in a row.  Indeed, he's given up just 15 earned runs over those nine games, for an ERA of 2.10.  And his ERA over his last 3 starts is 0.90.  It doesn't get any better than that!  For the season, Fried's ERA is 2.64, but it drops to 1.67 on the road (with a 0.66 WHIP).  And Fried has gone 'under' in 17 of his last 26 road starts.  His mound opponent this evening will be righty Jackson Tetreault, who will be making his first MLB start, after 12 starts at AAA Rochester this season.  Tetreault had a 52:24 K:BB ratio at Rochester this year, while it was 72:28 last season.  We'll take the Braves/Nationals 'under' on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 2 between Golden State and Boston.  The Celtics erupted for 40 points in the 4th quarter to rout the Warriors, 120-108, and take a 1-0 lead in the Finals.  Golden State will need to lock down on defense in this game, if it doesn't want to find itself in a 2-0 hole going back to Boston.  And the Warriors typically do just that.  In its 25 upset playoff defeats, it has held its opponent to a lower score 18 times.  And, not surprisingly, 18 of those 25 games have also gone 'under' the total.  Similarly, in the last 32 years of the Playoffs, teams off upset playoff defeats that gave up 120+ points in that upset loss, have then gone 'under' in the next game 58% of the time.  Take Game 2 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina Hurricanes/New York Rangers game.  These two teams have played a series where the home team has won each of the first six games.  And it's also a series where five of the first six games have gone 'under' the total.  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Monday, as the Rangers have gone 'under' 36-21 off a win in their previous game.  Moreover, the Rangers have gone 'under' in seven of their last eight Game 7s, and have also gone 'under' in 22 of 31 when they've been tied in a Playoff series.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have gone 'under' in 9 of 13 when facing elimination, and have seen six of their last eight home games vs. New York go 'under' the total.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on Game 6 between Boston and Miami to go Under the total.  These two teams have gone under the total by 30.5 points, and by 21.5 points in their last two games.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Friday, as teams that have gone under by 30+ points in their previous playoff game have continued to go under 60% of the time since 1990.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat Under the total.  The Celtics were upset by Miami, 109-103, on Saturday, and now trail in the series, 2-games-to-1.  Off that upset loss, and with their back against the wall, I expect a much better defensive effort by Boston on Monday night.  Indeed, NBA teams that trailed in a Playoff series, that were off an upset loss in a game which went Over the total, have generally rebounded to play MUCH BETTER defense in their next game.  Since 1990, such teams have held their opponent to a lower point total in 86.9% of the games, and the UNDER has cashed 62.3%.  Take the UNDER in Game 4.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between Miami and Boston.  This series is knotted at 1 game apiece after the two teams traded victories in Miami.  We'll look for a low-scoring affair in Game 3, as NBA Conference Finals have gone UNDER the total 15 of 16 times since 1990 when a series has been tied at 1-game apiece, and the O/U line was greater than 184 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix/Dallas game UNDER the total.  We played on the under in Game 6, and were rewarded with a 113-86 result, which went under the total by 11.5 points.  The last four games of this series have all gone UNDER the total, and have done so by an average of 15 ppg.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Sunday night, as the Mavericks are 52-21 UNDER when priced from -1 to +8 points, while Phoenix is 11-0-1 UNDER off a road loss this season (and 15-1-1 UNDER, dating back to last season).  Take Game 7 UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Milwaukee game.  The Celtics and Bucks have gone under in four of the first six games in this series, including Game 6, which went under by 9.5 points.  I look for another low-scoring game on Sunday, as Milwaukee has now gone under in eight of 10 Playoff games this season, while Boston has gone under in six of its last nine.  Even better, Boston's 30-11 under when priced as a favorite of -3 to -7.5 points.  Finally, in elimination games involving Milwaukee, the under has cashed 16 of 22, while it's cashed 23 of 36 in elimination games involving Boston.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Phoenix game.  Three of the first five games of this series have gone under the total (as well as nine of the last 13 meetings between these clubs), and we'll look for another low-scoring game here.  Indeed, the last game went under by 25.5 points!  And the last 3 games have gone under by an average of 16.16 ppg.  Dallas has been installed as a home underdog in this game.  And the Mavericks are now 40-13 UNDER when priced as an underdog of less than 6 points, including 8-1 UNDER its last nine at home.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat game.  Three of the first five games have gone under the total in this series (as well as 7 of the last 10 meetings between the clubs), and I look for yet another relatively-low scoring game tonight.  Indeed, the Heat have now gone under in 8 of their last 10 games, overall, while Philly has gone under in 7 of its last 10. Even better:  the Sixers come into this game off a blowout 35-point loss.  But the 76ers are 32-12 UNDER off a loss by 30+ points, while Miami is 20-4 UNDER when installed as an underdog vs. foes off a 25+ point defeat.  Take Game 6 under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks 'under' the total.  We played on the 'under' 213 in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 103-101 Milwaukee victory in a game which sailed under the total by 9 points.  And that was the 3rd straight under played by these teams to open this 7-game series.  Game 4 is tonight and, as my mother used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."  I will adhere to that advice, and once again look for a low-scoring game.  Indeed, not only has all three games of this series gone under (by 9, 21 and 28 points), but all eight of Milwaukee's playoff games have gone under!  The Bucks have now gone 'under' 24-9-2 their last 35 home playoff games, while Boston has gone under 24-11 its last 35 road playoff games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Milwaukee game.  The first two games of this series have sailed under the total.  And neither were close.  Game 1 was won by Milwaukee, 101-89, and went under the total by 28 points.  Likewise, Game 2 -- a 109-86 Celtics win -- went under by 21 points.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game this afternoon, as NBA Playoff games have gone under 62.3% since 1990 if the two previous games in the series combined to go under the total by 44+ points.  Even better:  Milwaukee has gone under in five straight home playoff games, and is 23-9-2 under its last 34 home playoff games.  Meanwhile, Boston has gone under 23-11 its last 34 road playoff games.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Phoenix game.  The Suns erupted for 129 points in their Game 2 win, and also tallied 121 in Game 1.  But off these two high-scoring games, we'll take Game 3 to go UNDER the total.  Indeed, since 1990, NBA teams that scored more than 120 points in a playoff win, and also scored more than 120 points two games back, have gone UNDER 68.6% since 1990.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Memphis/Minnesota game.  These two teams went down to the wire in Game 5, with Memphis winning by just points, 111-109.  And the game went under the total by 11 points.  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Friday, as Memphis has been installed as a narrow 1-point road favorite.  And NBA Playoff games, competitively-priced with a point spread less than 2 points, have gone 'under' 99-79 since 1990.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in Game 6 between Utah and Dallas.  These two teams mustered just 179 points in Game 5, which went 'under' by 33.5 points.  And Game 4 wasn't much better, as they scored just 199 points combined, which was 15 points less than the posted total.  Game 6 is set-up to be another low-scoring game, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 57% since 1990 off back to back low-scoring games that each went 'under' by 15+ points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns 'Under' the total.  We played on the #1-seeded Suns in Game 5 of this series, as our NBA Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 112-97 win.  That game went 'under' the total of 216.  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as #8 seeds (like New Orleans) have gone 'under' the total in Home elimination games 62% of the time since 1990, including 78.9% when the O/U line was between 198 and 219 points, and 82.3% in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 or less.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Toronto game.  Game 5 went 'under' the total by 20.5 points, and that was the 4th straight game in this series which has gone 'under.'  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as the Sixers have gone 'under' in 9 of 12 games after failing to cover the spread by 18+ points in their previous game, and 27-18 'under' after going 'under' by 17+ points in their previous game.  Likewise, Toronto is 24-10 'under' after going 'under' by 17+ points in its previous game.  Take the 'under.'

At 10 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game.  The Warriors have exploded to score 123, 126, 118 and 121 points in this series.  And, dating back to the regular season, the Warriors' last five games have gone 'Over' the total.  But off this string of high-scoring games, we'll take the 'UNDER' on Wednesday night.  Indeed, NBA teams have gone 'under' the total 65.1% since 1990 if they scored 118+ points in the three previous meetings that season, and the most recent meeting didn't go 'under.'   Even better:  Golden State has gone 'under' 60% at home off 5+ overs.  Take the UNDER in Game 5.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors UNDER the total.  The Warriors come into this game off 3 SU/ATS wins that all went OVER the total.  But since 1994, Golden State has gone 'under' 67% of the time off 3 SU/ATS wins that all went 'over.'  As does the fact that the Warriors are 25-13 UNDER their last 38 as a road favorite.  I look for a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies UNDER the total.  The last two games have gone WAY UNDER the total.  Game 2 totaled 220 points, and sailed under by 20.5.  Likewise, Game 3 totaled 199 points, and was 38.5 points away from the posted total of 237.5.  The Game 4 line has been adjusted downward, of course, but not by nearly enough.  We'll look for another relatively low-scoring game on Saturday night, as the Grizzlies have now gone 'under' 31-14-2 when the line has been 231+ points, including 8-1 'under' their last nine on the road.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans UNDER the total.  The Suns were stunned in Game 2, as New Orleans leveled the series at 1 game apiece with a road win.  Even worse:  Phoenix lost its best player, Devin Booker, for the remainder of the series.  We'll look for a low-scoring game in New Orleans tonight, as the Suns are 20-5 UNDER off a straight-up loss, including 9-0 UNDER their last nine on the road.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Milwaukee/Chicago game.  The first two games of this series have gone UNDER the total, and they continued a series trend, as 12 of the last 16 meetings between these Central division rivals have gone UNDER the total.  And this series trend dovetails with how each team has done in division games, overall.  Chicago has now gone UNDER in 21 of 26 division games (including 11-0 UNDER when priced from 215 to 224), while Milwaukee has gone UNDER in 11 of 17 division games.  And the Bucks are 22-14 UNDER off an upset loss.  Take the UNDER.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game.  The Warriors blew out Denver in the first two games -- both played in San Francisco -- by scores of 123-107 and 126-106.  The Warriors have been installed as a road favorite tonight, and have gone UNDER the total in 25 of 37 games as a road favorite.  Additionally, NBA teams off back to back games in which they scored 123+ points have gone UNDER 67.7% in the Playoffs since 1990.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the UCLA/North Carolina game.  This is a very much a contrarian play, as both of these teams have been playing high scoring games, of late.  UCLA went over the total in its previous game vs. St. Mary's, and has played six of its last eight over the total.  Meanwhile, North Carolina has gone over in 13 of 18.  And these recent results have triggered a very good 62% Totals system of mine which plays certain tournament games UNDER, based on certain data from the teams' previous games.  In this NCAA Tourney, the Tar Heels have topped 90 points in their first two tournament games -- each of which went over the total.  But off those two very high scoring games, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game against the defensive-minded Bruins.  UCLA is surrendering just 64.2 ppg this season and ranks 14th in the country (of 358 teams) in adjusted defensive efficiency.  In the Bruins' last 12 games as a favorite, UCLA has allowed just 59.5 ppg, and has not allowed any opponent to reach 70 points.  This game will be very low scoring.  Take the UNDER. 

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Pacific/Loyola Marymount game.  The previous meeting of these teams went 'over' the total by 31 points, which has led the oddsmakers to inflate the number of this Total.  We'll take advantage and look for a relatively-low scoring game tonight, as post-season games have gone 'under' 55% when the previous meeting went 'over' by 25+ points.  Even better:  the UNDER falls into a 76% Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER. 

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams OVER the total.  The Rams held Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers in check in the NFC Conference Championship game, which finished 20-17, and went under the total of 45.5 points by 8.5 points.  But the Rams have tended to go OVER the total when facing the better NFL teams, as they're 10-4 OVER when playing an opponent which averages more than 26.75 ppg, and 7-1 OVER when playing an opponent with a .650 (or better) win percentage.  Additionally, the Rams are now 5-0 OVER following an under in their previous game.  Even better:  NFL teams have gone OVER 67-42 in the Playoffs following a game it went under by more than 8 points, if such Playoff game had a line greater than 42 points.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers over the total.  These two teams met earlier this month, and the Niners upset the Rams here, in Los Angeles, to punch their ticket to the Playoffs.  That regular season game went OVER the total.  And we'll look for a similar result on Sunday, as the NFC Championship games have been extremely high scoring, for the most part, with the OVER cashing 21-7-2 since 1992, including 10-0 OVER if the line ranged from 45 to 54 points.  Even better, in the Playoffs, when the home favorite was playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, those games have gone OVER 24-11.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  These two teams met just four weeks ago, and they played a high-scoring game, won by the Bengals, 34-31.  That game sailed over the total of 51 by 14 points.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday at Arrowhead, as playoff rematches of games that went over, also tend to go over the total, and especially if the O/U line is 50+ points, as those games have gone over 65% since 1990.  Kansas City has now played its last 7 games OVER the total, and is also 6-0 OVER with Patrick Mahomes at QB and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams played high scoring games in the regular season, with each team scoring 30+ points in a road victory.  But this is the playoffs, not the regular season, and I expect a much better game today on the defensive side of the football.  And the Rams, especially, have tightened things up defensively following their mid-season three game losing streak.  Los Angeles gave up 28, 31 and 36 points in those defeats, and were being roundly criticized.  But since hitting that rock-bottom level, the Rams have gone 5-1, with their only loss coming in overtime.  And they have given up just 18.16 ppg in this stretch.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 UNDER on turf, and 11-3 UNDER off a SU loss.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide to go UNDER the total.  The storyline for this game is undoubtedly whether Georgia can avenge its loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  So, it's worth noting that, in the Kirby Smart-Era, the Bulldogs are 7-1 SU/ATS when installed as a favorite, and playing with revenge.  In their seven wins, they've held their opponents to 8.28 points per game, even though their opponents averaged north of 29 points per game, on offense.  Of course, the one loss was last month to this Alabama team, when the Crimson Tide scored 41 points against the Bulldogs' defense.  I believe that game was more of an anomaly than anything else.  After all, this is a Georgia team which had given up just 6.9 ppg in its first 12 games this season.  And, importantly, it showed just how dominant it can be when it held an excellent Michigan team -- the 3rd best football team in the country this season -- to a meager 84 rushing yards (139.8 yards below its season average) and 11 points (26.6 points below its season average).  Georgia has gone UNDER the total in nine of its last 13 post-season games.  And NCAA Football teams that gave up 14 or less points per game (thru their first 10 games) have gone UNDER 70.9% since 2014 if the O/U line was 52+ points.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game on Monday night.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks OVER the total.  This is the season's first meeting for these teams.  But they met three times last season, and all 3 games not only went OVER the total.  And they were all extremely high-scoring, as they generated 236, 266 and 263 points.  Even better:  the last seven meetings here, in Dallas, have gone OVER the total, and those games produced an average of 243.1 points.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on LSU and Kansas State OVER the total.  The Tigers will play this Bowl game with two freshman options at quarterback, neither of whom has played.  And both were walk-ons!  So, interim had coach Brad Davis will have his choice between Tavion Faulk and Matt O'Dowd.  The result of this huge question mark at signal caller is that this Over/Under line is the 2nd lowest of LSU's 13 games this season.  And it represents the 2nd lowest Over/Under line for Kansas State, as well.  By my math, the oddsmakers have adjusted this number downward by too much, and there's significant value on the OVER.  Additionally, there are two other factors that I believe will contribute to a higher-scoring game.  First, Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson is healthy, and at full strength.  And he's been throwing and running the ball extremely well in practice leading up to this game, so that bodes well for the Wildcats' offense tonight.  And the 2nd factor is that Kansas State will have a new offensive coordinator for this game.  Quarterbacks coach Collin Klein (who also was a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2012) will call the offensive plays following the dismissal of Courtney Messingham last month.  I expect Klein to put his stamp on the offense, and possibly go up-tempo.  Indeed, several of Kansas State's beat writers have commented on Messingham's failure to ever play at a fast pace, or even call trick plays -- with the implication that Klein will be much different than Messingham.  I look for a relatively-high scoring game tonight.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder 'OVER' the total.  The Mavericks and Thunder met here on December 12, and the Mavs won a very low-scoring game, 103-84.  It went 'under' the total of 206.5 by 19.5 points.  But Dallas was without its best player, Luka Doncic, in that game, so Jalen Brunson picked up the slack and scored 18 points.  The good news for Dallas is that Doncic has been cleared to finally return tonight, after missing the team's last 10 games.  And we will look for a high scoring game on this Sunday, as NBA games tend to go over the total when the previous meeting went under by more than 19 points.  Additionally, the OVER falls into a 179-128 Totals system of mine.  Take Dallas/OKC Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers UNDER the total.  The Broncos come into this game off back to back unders, and they've also gone under in 12 of 15 games this season, including 6 of 7 road games.  Even better:  dating back 44 years, the Chargers have gone 'under' 81-34-1 at home vs. division rivals, including 18-5 'under' the past eight seasons, and 26-9 'under' when priced from 44 to 47.5 points.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team to go UNDER the total.  These two teams played a mere two weeks ago.  Washington QB Taylor Heinicke missed that game, with Garrett Gilbert starting in his stead, and the over/under line was set at 39.5 points.  Heinicke is back for this game, so the over/under line has been adjusted higher.  But it's been adjusted a bit too much, very likely due to the two teams' most recent scores.  Philadelphia has played its last three games over the total, and has scored 33, 27 and 34 in its last three games.  Meanwhile, Washington gave up 27, 27 and 56 in its last three games.  But teams have gone 'under' the total in 11 of 15 games following a game in which they allowed 54+ points.  And the Eagles have played their last five UNDER following 3 overs (and 26 of their last 36 UNDER following 3 overs), including 14 of 17 UNDER it it was a division game.  Take Washington and Philly to go UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears and Mississippi Rebels 'OVER' the total.  These two teams have both played a string of unders coming into this Sugar Bowl.  Baylor has gone 'under' in four straight games, while Ole Miss has gone 'under' in seven straight.  The result is that this O/U line is the lowest number for an Ole Miss game this season.  The average line on Ole Miss totals this season has been 70.62.  With Baylor's games, it's been 56.25, for a blended average of 63.43.  So, this line has been significantly adjusted for the two teams' string of unders.  Indeed, at the start of Ole Miss' 7-game 'under' streak, the O/U line for its game against Tennessee was 82.5 points!  At the start of Baylor's 4-game 'under' streak, the O/U line for its game against Oklahoma was 63.5 points.  The 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 62.6%, which plays on certain games -- with over/under lines greater than 55 -- to go 'over' the total, as well as a 2nd angle which has won 58.4%.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes and Kentucky Wildcats UNDER the total.  The Wildcats come into this game off back to back high-scoring wins, as they tallied 52 vs. Louisville, and 56 against New Mexico State.  The Over/Under line has been installed well below those offensive totals, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the over.  But consider that NCAA games have gone 'UNDER' 73% since 2013 if a team topped 50 points in each of its two previous games, and the line was 52 or less.  That bodes well for the UNDER on this Saturday afternoon.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into two of my best totals systems, with records of 58-33 and 114-66.  Take Kentucky + Iowa 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State/Wisconsin game to go UNDER the total.  Both of these teams have solid defenses, and give up less than 21 points per game.  And Arizona State has now gone 'under' the total in six straight non-conference games (and has gone 'under' by an average of 14.25 ppg.  Wisconsin also has gone 'under' in 5 of 6 non-conference games vs. foes that give up less than 21 points per game.  And the Badgers are 8-1 'under' after being upset in its previous game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Seattle/Chicago game.  In its last game, the Seahawks managed to score just 10 points, in their 20-10 loss at Los Angeles.   But the Seahawks have gone OVER the total in 30 of 47 home games after scoring 10 or less points the previous week in a game which went under the total.  Additionally, this game falls into two totals systems of mine that are 96-52 and 38-16.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  The Patriots have gone 'over' the total in each of their last four home games, while Buffalo is 10-4-2 OVER the total its last 16 road games.  We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on this Sunday afternoon, as the OVER falls into a 71-43 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, Buffalo was upset by New England in the season's first meeting, and scored just 10 points in that game.  And you would have to go back 55 games to find the last time Buffalo scored so few points in a home upset loss.  But NFL teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they scored 10 (or less) points tend to bounce back on offense in the season's next meeting, as 59% exceeded their offensive ppg average, and the OVER has cashed 66.1%.  Take the Bills and Patriots to go 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings game.  Both teams come into this game off high-scoring affairs.  The Vikings tallied 36 last week in an 8-point win over Pittsburgh, while Chicago posted 30 in a 15-point loss at Green Bay.  And the aggregate points of each team's last two games, combined, have been 120 (Minnesota) and 130 (Chicago) points.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game tonight.  But NFL games have gone under the total 75% over the last 42 years if both teams' previous two games combined for 120+ points, with each game going 'over' the total, and each of the teams scored 28+ points in its previous game.  That bodes well for the 'under' tonight.  As does the fact that the Bears have gone 'under' the total in 23 of 33 division games when installed as a home underdog, including 12-0 UNDER when the line ranged from 42 to 48 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer this week, and have named offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell as interim head coach.  Jacksonville's offense has been moribund of late, as it's scored just 64 points over its last seven games, including a shutout loss last week at Tennessee.  Not surprisingly, Jacksonville's last eight games have all gone 'under' the total.  But there is good reason to expect a different result this afternoon.  First and foremost, the over/under line is the lowest this season for a Jaguars game by 5 points (more than the 2nd lowest O/U line).  Indeed, four of Jacksonville's last eight games would have gone 'over' the total had the line been this low.  Additionally, NFL teams that scored less than 14 points in their previous game, and have gone 'under' the total six (or more) games in a row have gone OVER 65.1% since 1980 in games with lines less than 43 points.  I look for a relatively high scoring game this afternoon.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers Under the total.  These two AFC West division rivals both scored a lot of points in victory last week.  Kansas City tallied 48 at home vs. Las Vegas, while Los Angeles scored 37 at the New York Giants.  But we will look for a much lower scoring game at SoFi Stadium tonight.  Key Stat:  the Chargers have gone UNDER the total 81-33-1 at home vs. division rivals over the last 34 seasons, including 11-2 UNDER if the line was 49+ points; 30-8 UNDER if both went Over the total in their previous game; and 34-14 UNDER as an underdog.  This will be another low-scoring division game for Los Angeles.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals UNDER the total.  After giving up 28, 31 and 36 its three previous games, the Rams' defense surrendered just seven last week to the Jaguars.  And L.A.'s game went 'under' the total.  I look for another supreme effort by the Rams' stop unit on Monday, as it will be looking to redeem itself after giving up 37 points to the Cardinals when the two teams met in October.  The last three times the Rams gave up more than 28 points to a division foe in the season's first meeting, it rebounded to hold that foe to 10, 12, and 12 points in the rematch.  Seventeen of the last 27 meetings between these two NFC West division teams have gone 'under' the total, and we'll look for a relatively low scoring game on Monday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Atlanta/Jacksonville game.  The Jaguars have played their last five games Under the total, while the Falcons were shutout in their last game, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game this afternoon.  But teams off 5 straight unders have gone 'over' the total in their next game more often than not.  Additionally, when teams have gone 'under' in 4+ straight games, and their foe scored 7 or less in its previous game, those games have gone OVER the total 62.3% since 1980.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game.  The Bills were shocked last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were a 14.5-point underdog, yet won, 9-6.  The Bills tend to bounce back from losses, and their games also tend to be relatively low-scoring.  Indeed, Buffalo has played its last eight games 'under' the total following a straight-up loss, and 18 of its last 24, including 9-0 UNDER if the line was 42+ points.  Take the Jets/Bills UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

t 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  The Packers have played their last five games 'under' the total, while the Chiefs have played their last 3 'under.'  Now, with 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers sidelined, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game with Jordan Love at quarterback for Green Bay.  But consider that games involving one team off 5+ unders vs. another team off 3+ unders have gone OVER the total 55% of the time, including 63% when the O/U line has been greater than 40 points.  And the Chiefs also fall into a 126-76 Totals system of mine which indicates that they will go OVER the total.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts UNDER the total.  The Jets have played their last four games OVER, including a 34-31 upset of the Bengals last week.  Meanwhile, the Colts have played four of their last 5 OVER, including a 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee last week.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game tonight.  But I don't see it that way, as my numbers project a relatively low-scoring game.  Indeed, games involving a team off 4+ overs, with over/under lines of 45+ points, have gone 'under' 57% majority of the time when their opponent was also off 2+ overs.  Likewise, in matchups between two teams that were each involved in high-scoring (59+ points) games their last time out, the 'under' has cashed 67.8% over the past 36+ seasons when the over/under line ranged from 45 to 52 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Rams are averaging 29.57 ppg, and have scored 28, 38, and 26 over their last three games.  They will surely put up points against a Texans club which has surrendered 31, 31 and 25 over its last three outings.  And while it's true that Houston's offense has its own issues, it did put up 22 vs. a very good Patriots defense here in its most recent home game.  And it's averaging 22.66 ppg at home this season (compared to just 7.25 ppg on the road).  I expect Houston to put up a much better fight this afternoon in front of its home faithful than it did on the road the past two weeks.  And the OVER also falls into a 62-31 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals UNDER the total.  This is the Bengals 3rd straight road game, and they exploded for 34 and 41 points in their first two.  Unfortunately that offensive output is unlikely to occur for a 3rd straight road game, as NFL teams that scored more than 28 in back to back road games only average 15.75 ppg in the 3rd road game.  And those games have gone 'under' the total by an average of 5.06 ppg.  The UNDER also falls into a super 92-46 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a low-scoring game on Sunday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants UNDER the total.  After giving up 44 points to Dallas and 38 points to the Los Angeles Rams (both of which average more than 400 yards per game), the Giants will no doubt be happy to face a middle-of-the-pack offensive team like Carolina.  Over the last 42 years, the Giants have gone 'under' the total 75% of the time after giving up 34+ points in back to back losses.  And they've also gone under 59% after a loss by 27+ points.  Finally, the Giants have gone 'under' in 19 of 28 games as a home underdog, including the last 6 in a row, while Carolina is 9-2 'under' as a road favorite.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in tonight's game between Denver and Cleveland.  These two teams were both upset last Sunday.  Denver had its worst defensive effort of the season, as it gave up 34 to Las Vegas in a 10-point loss.  And Cleveland's defense was even worse, as it was wrecked by Arizona, 37-14, in a 23-point upset home loss.  But off those upset losses, I expect both teams to play much better defense tonight.  Indeed, Denver is 14-3 UNDER its last 17 off an upset loss, while Cleveland is 23-13 UNDER its last 36 off an upset loss.  And matchups between two teams off upset losses, in which they each gave up 28+ points, have gone UNDER the total 77.4% over the past 33 seasons, including a perfect 5-0 UNDER since last season.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Cleveland Browns/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The Browns held their two previous opponents -- Chicago and Minnesota -- to 6 and 7 points, respectively.  But neither the Bears nor the Vikings will be in the post-season.  Los Angeles, on the other hand, is looking every bit like a Super Bowl contender.  The Chargers' offense has tallied 30 and 28 points its last two games, and will put pressure on the Browns' defense.  Justin Herbert has completed 69% of his passes for 1178 yards and nine TDs.  I also believe Cleveland will find success on the ground behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as the Chargers rank 29th against the run, and are giving up 140 yards per game, on a horrid 5.26 yards per carry!  For technical support, consider that NFL teams have gone OVER the total 61.1% of the time when the line was greater than 46 points, if they gave up 15 (or less) points combined over the previous two games.  Take the OVER!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia Eagles/Carolina Panthers game.  After giving up just 6 and 17 points in their first two games, the Eagles' defense has been leaky of late, as it's given up 41 and 42 points the past two weeks -- both double-digit losses.  Likewise, Carolina's defense surrendered 36 points last week to Dallas (in a 36-28 loss), after giving up just 7 and 9 its two previous games.  I look for both defenses to return to form on this Sunday, and play much better than in recent weeks.  For technical support, consider that the Eagles have gone 'UNDER' in 56 of 80 games after playing a game where 58+ points were scored.  And NFL games have gone under the total 58% since 1985 if both teams were off a game where more than 60 points was scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos.  After starting the year with an impressive 23-16 win over (arguably) the AFC's most impressive team, the Steelers have stumbled badly, with three consecutive defeats to the Raiders, Bengals and Packers.  And they scored just 17, 10 and 17 points in those three games.  The good news here is that Pittsburgh tends to bounce back at home off back-to-back losses, as they're 37-17 straight-up, 33-21 ATS, and 34-18-2 OVER the total.  Pittsburgh's also 66-40 OVER the total when the line has been less than 40 points.  Likewise, the Broncos also stumbled on offense last week, as they lost 23-7 to Baltimore.  But the Broncos are 14-1-1 OVER the total after losing a game in which less than 33 total points were scored.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New England Patriots/Houston Texans game.  The Texans were shut out last week, 40-0, by the Buffalo Bills.  So, clearly, their offense behind rookie QB Davis Mills is a mess right now.  Of course, the oddsmakers have made their adjustments, and the over/under line for this game is more than 7 points lower than either game each of these teams played last week.  From my perspective, the oddsmakers have over-reacted, and there's significant value in taking the OVER in this game.  For technical support, consider than NFL games have gone OVER the total 65.5% over the last 42 years, if both teams were coming into the game off an UNDER, and both teams had over/under lines more than 6 points greater in their previous game than the current game.  Take the OVER.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Each of these two AFC West division rivals has gone 'under' the total a significant amount of the time when playing a division foe.  To wit:  the Chargers are 80-33-1 UNDER the total when playing at home vs. an AFC West opponent.  And the Raiders are 62-37-1 UNDER the total on the road in division games.   And the 'under' also falls into a 20-1 Totals system of mine, as well as a 67-35 Monday Night Football Totals system.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to go OVER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off low-scoring games.  The Jets were shutout, 26-0, as a 10-point road underdog in Denver, while Tennessee won, 25-16, as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. the Colts.  New York has played each of its three games under the total, while the Titans have played two of their first three under the total.  And this general paucity of scoring in the games played by these teams thus far has led to the number on this game moving 2 to 3 points down from the opener.  I think this is a severe over-reaction to the fact that the Jets have scored just 20 points this season.  Indeed, New York's first 3 opponents (Denver, Carolina, New England) currently rank #1, #2 and #5 in scoring defense!  The Titans, on the other hand, are giving up a whopping 28 points per game, and rank #25 in scoring defense.  I fully expect the Flyboys to be able to put up some points here, at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  Tennessee has played 7 of its last 8 (and 12 of its last 16) road games over the total, and has surrendered an average of 28.63 ppg in its last eight road games.  And it's 9-0-1 'over' the total its last 10 games off a home win.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns to go 'under' the total.  We played Game 3 under, and the total opened at 222.5.  It remained between 222.5 and 220.5 throughout the 3 days of betting action until 90 minutes before game time when many books dropped the line to 220.  Game 3's final score was 120-100, so it was an 'under' or a 'push' for 99+ percent of bettors.  The key to Game 3 going under was the Phoenix Suns' offensive output (or lack thereof), as they scored 18 less points than they did in either Game 1 or Game 2, when they scored 118 in each of their home games.  That actually bodes very well for another low-scoring game tonight.  In 31 years of the NBA Finals, teams that come off a loss -- which also didn't go Over the total -- where they scored 15 (or less) points than they did two games back, greatly tend to play another low-scoring game, as their next game also didn't go Over the total 83% of the time.  Even better:  Game 4s of the NBA Finals have historically been very low-scoring games, and especially in competitive series (that is, series that are not being led 3-games-to-none), as those have gone 'under' 18 of 24.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the 'under' in Game 4.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns 'under' the total.  The Suns and Bucks have played all four meetings this year 'over' the total, and they've gone 'over' in all six meetings played this year, and last.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Sunday night, especially after the Suns scored 118 in each of the first two games of this Finals.  But consider that NBA games involving teams (like Phoenix) off back to back playoff games, where they scored more than 116 in each game, have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992.  Take Game 3 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers 'under' the total.  We played on the 76ers and the 'under' in Game 6, and got the $$$ with each.  For Game 7, we'll come right back with the 'under,' as each of the last three games in this series has been low-scoring.  Game 4 went 'under' by 23.5 points; Game 5 by 9 points; and Game 6 by 20.5 points!  One of the reasons, of course, is that after playing the same team for several games, the defenses understand fully the other team's offensive sets, and don't allow the shooters to get the best looks.  So, it's no surprise that, for example, the 76ers have shot 43.4% over the last three games (compared to 55.2% over the first three games).  Likewise, Atlanta's shooting percentage has dropped from 48.2% to 41.0%.  This season, Philly ranked #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and has also allowed just 108.2 ppg.  For the year, Atlanta's gone 'under' 65.5% of the time vs. the better defensive teams that allow less than 109.3 ppg.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets to go 'under' the total.  These two teams met on Thursday night for Game 6 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee was favored by 4.5 points, and the total was 220.  The Brooklyn Nets entered that game with a 3-2 series lead, so it was an elimination game for the Bucks.  But Milwaukee sprinted out to an 18-5 lead in the first quarter, and finished the quarter with a 26-19 lead. Brooklyn could never mount a comeback, and when the final gun sounded, the Bucks earned a 104-89 victory. The Bucks covered the 4.5-point number, and it went under the total by 27 points.  The over/under line for this Game 7 is lower than it was for Game 6, but it's not low enough.  And we'll look for another 'under' tonight.  Indeed, seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the number this season.  Even better:  Brooklyn has gone 17-7 'under' vs. winning teams, and 12-4 'under' in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 3 or less.  Likewise, Milwaukee has gone 'under' 36-22-1 vs. winning teams, and 27-18 in games priced from +3 to -3.  Take the Bucks and Nets to go 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks to go 'under' the total.  The 76ers now face elimination after back to back upset losses to the Hawks.  But teams tend to go 'under' after back to back upset playoff defeats, as they've gone 'under' in 52 of 82 games.  And the Sixers have gone 'under' in 27 of 41 road games when installed as a favorite.  Take the 'under.'

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets 'under' the total.  All three games of this series have sailed UNDER the total, including Game 3, which generated just 169 points (against an over/under line of 235).  And that game went 'under' by a whopping 66 points.  So, the oddsmakers have adjusted this Game 4 line but, by my math, it's not been adjusted enough.  We'll take the 'under' this afternoon and note, for technical support, that NBA playoff games with O/U lines of 200 (or more) have gone 'under' the total 71% over the last 31 years if the previous game totaled 172 (or less) points.  Even better:  in competitively-priced games with point spreads of less than 4, Milwaukee has gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 42 of 72), while Brooklyn has also gone 'under' seven straight, and in 78 of 127.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Clippers/Dallas Mavericks game.  The last three games in this series have gone 'under' the total, and have done so by wide margins (32.5, 12.5 and 16 points).  We played on the 'under' in Game 6, and that's the way we will look again in this Game 7.  Indeed, eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER.  And the Mavericks are now 23-6 UNDER their last 29 games when they've been installed as the underdog.  Finally, NBA games have gone UNDER 72.5% if the season's previous three meetings went under, in the aggregate, by 59+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Dallas/Los Angeles game.  The Clippers were upset by the Mavericks, 105-100, as a 7.5-point home favorite on Wednesday, which sets up this 'do-or-die' game for Tyronn Lue's men tonight.  Los Angeles has now gone 'under' in 10 of its last 13 games off a straight-up loss, while Dallas is 17-11 'under' vs. opponents off a loss.  Even better:  these two teams come into tonight's game off two very low-scoring contests (105-100, 106-81) that went under the total by 32.5 and 12.5 points, respectively.  And that sets up tonight's play, as competitively-priced playoff games, with point spreads of 3 (or less) points, have gone 'under' 60.9% since 1991, if the two teams also went under in their two previous games.  We'll look for another low-scoring game tonight in Game 6.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Phoenix/Los Angeles game.  These two teams have played four of their five games in this 1st round series UNDER the total.  And the last three have gone 'under' by wide margins (9.5, 17.5 and 7.0 points).  That bodes well for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 67% since 1991 after the three previous games went 'under' by at least 5.0 ppg.  Take Game 6 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz/Memphis Grizzlies game to go under the total.  The Grizzlies have lost their last three games to face elimination tonight.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game, as 1st Round elimination games have gone 'under' the total 57% since 1991 if the team facing elimination was not getting more than 10 points.  And Utah has gone 'under' 62-44 at home in the playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Memphis/Utah game.  The Grizzlies find themselves in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they're down 2-games-to-1 after dropping Games 2 + 3 by scores of 141-129 and 121-111.  Clearly, the Grizzlies will need to shore up things on the defensive end if they hope to get back into this series with an upset win tonight.  I look for a much better defensive effort by the home team, and a lower-scoring game tonight, on Monday.  Indeed, NBA playoff games have gone under the total 71% of the time since 1990 if a team was off back to back losses, in which it gave up more than 120 points.  And the Grizzlies have also gone 'under' 33-13-1 their last 47 after giving up 120+ points in their previous game.  Take the 'under' tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the game between Memphis and Utah.  The Jazz exploded for 141 points on Wednesday, as they won SU/ATS as a 10-point home favorite, 141-129.  But off that high-scoring game, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Saturday.  Indeed, NBA teams off 138+ point games have gone 'under' 90-67 since 1991 when the O/U line was 224+ points.  Moreover, the Grizzlies have gone 'under' in 34 of their last 48 home games, and 32-14-2 'under' off a loss by more than 8 points.  Meanwhile, the Jazz are 33-16-1 'under' in their road playoff games off a SU win.  Take the Grizzlies/Jazz Game 3 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Portland/Denver game.  The Nuggets have won the past two games by scores of 128-109 and 120-115.  But off those two high-scoring wins, we'll look for a lower-scoring affair this afternoon, as teams have gone 'under' the total 65.0% since 1991 if they scored more than 116 in back to back playoff games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers game.  These two teams come into tonight's game off back to back high-scoring affairs.  Portland won Game 1, 123-109, while Denver took Game 2, 128-109.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game tonight, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time since 1991 after back to back games that totaled 230+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into several of my favorite Totals systems that are 92-58, 177-131, and 136-101 since 1991.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Minnesota game.  The Rockets have gone 'under' 28-13 in 2021, including 9-1 'under' in games with O/U lines greater than 227.  And they're also 13-0 'under' their last 13 when priced from +3 to +6 points.  Meanwhile, Minnesota's gone 'under' 13-4 when priced as a home favorite, including 7-0 'under' when laying more than 4 points.  Take the 'under.'

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between Arkansas and Oral Roberts.  The Razorbacks have played their last four games 'under' the total, and I look for another relatively-low scoring game on this Saturday.  Indeed, teams that have gone under in a tournament's first two games have continued to go under 64.7% in their 3rd game of that post-season tournament.  And the 'under' also falls into 86-61 and 36-20 post-season Totals systems of mine.  Finally, Arkansas is 25-14 'under' in non-conference games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills to go 'over' the total.  This play is largely technical in nature, as it falls into two very good Playoff totals systems of mine that are 33-15 and 73-38 since 1991.  And we'll look for a high-scoring game regardless of who is under center for Kansas City on Sunday.  For further technical support, consider that the Chiefs are 19-12 'over' the total in games after both they and their opponent went 'under' in their previous games, while Playoff games have sailed 'over' the total 62% since 1980 when the line was greater than 53 points, and the two teams averaged a combined 59+ points on offense.  Finally, NFL Conference Championship games have gone 'over' 63% when the line was greater than 46 points.  Take the Bills and Chiefs to go over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/Baltimore game.  Last week, the Ravens were favored by 3.5 points against Tennessee, and won a low-scoring game, 20-13.  And that was the eighth straight Playoff game (and 10th of the last 11) where the Ravens went 'UNDER' the total as a favorite.  But when the Ravens have been installed as an underdog (as they are, here), then it's been a completely different story, as they've gone OVER in those games 6-3-1.  Likewise, the Bills have gone OVER 29-14-1 as a favorite (compared to 18-8 'under' as an underdog).  We'll take the OVER on Saturday night, as each of these teams average more than 28 points per game on offense.  And in match-ups between two teams that average 28+ points, NFL games have gone 'over' the total 61% of the time since 1985.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Green Bay/Los Angeles Rams game, as it falls into a 52-24 Totals system of mine.  This game has all the earmarks of a high-scoring game.  The Packers are averaging 31.8 ppg, and will be playing at home following a Bye week last weekend.  And high-octane NFL offenses that average more than 31 ppg have gone 'over' the total 23-11-1 since 1985 when playing at home in the Playoffs.  Moreover, in his career, Aaron Rodgers has gone 'over' the total 32-14 when the Packers were favored from -4.5 to -7 points, including 14-2 'over' their last 16.  And, with Rodgers at the helm, Green Bay has gone 'over' the total in 12 of 18 playoff games.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Baltimore/Tennessee game.  The Titans have gone 12-3-1 'over' the total this season, including 3-0 'over' their last three, and 7-1 'over' their last eight.  The only game the Titans have played in the season's 2nd half which didn't go 'over' the total was their 31-10 victory over the offensively-challenged Jaguars (who averaged just 19.1 ppg this year).  But Tennessee will be playing the Ravens this Sunday afternoon.  And John Harbaugh's men have scored 29.25 ppg, including 37.2 ppg over their last five games.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 41 seasons, NFL teams that played 80+ percent of their games 'over' the total, have gone 'over' in their Playoff game 71% of the time.  Even better:  the Titans come into this game off a 41-38 win at Houston last Sunday.  And the Titans have now gone 'over' the total 10-0-1 off a win.  Finally, NFL Playoff games have gone 'over' the total 80% of the time over the past 20 years if a team's previous game totaled more than 76 points.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the Ravens/Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and Seattle held the Rams to just 9 points, in a 20-9 win.  But playoff rematches of games involving a team which scored less than 10 points in the previous matchup have gone over the total 61% since 1980 due, in part, to that team's offense being much more productive in the Playoff game.  And .600 (or better) teams -- like the Rams -- that managed to score no more than 50 points combined over their three previous games, have gone 'over' the total 59-33, including over the total in 7 of 8 Playoff games!  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars game.  This should be one of those games where the Colts can "name their score." Certainly, a blowout at half-time would not surprise.  And first-half blowouts often result in the leading team taking its foot off the gas in the 2nd half.  Dating back to 1985, NFL games with point spreads of 14+ points have gone 'under' the total 65.7% of the time in the season's final two weeks.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams met four weeks ago, and the Rams won a 38-28 shootout.  The line for that game was 55 points, so it sailed over the total by 11 points.  Yes, a lot of offensive pieces are missing for this game (e.g., Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, etc.), but the oddsmakers' movement of this number down to this level was a vast over-reaction.  The 'over' falls into a 28-7 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the under in the Minnesota/Detroit game.  Both of these also-rans have dismal defenses.  Minnesota gives up 29.3 ppg, while Detroit gives up 32.1 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game in this meaningless, final game of the season.  But final games of the NFL season that involve at least one team with a defense which give up 28+ points have gone 'under' 67.3% since 1981.  The 'under' also falls into 113-74 and 103-47 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Los Angeles Chargers/Denver Broncos game.  These two 5-9 teams are playing out the string at this point after having a disappointing season.  Last week, Denver was routed by Buffalo, 48-19, while the Chargers won, 30-27, in overtime against Las Vegas.  However, but for the overtime session, the Chargers game would have gone 'under' the total, which would have been its fourth straight 'under.'  We'll play on the 'under' in this penultimate game of the season, as the Chargers have gone under 79-33-1 at home vs. division rivals, including each of the last seven vs. the Broncos.  Even better: NFL games with O/U lines of 45+ points have gone 'under' 58.2% if one team's most recent game totaled more than 65 points, while its opponent's most recent game totaled 55+ points.  Finally, the 'under' also falls into a 129-77 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and NY Giants to go OVER the total.  Lamar Jackson & Co. have now scored 34, 47 and 40 points in their last three games.  Not surprisingly, each went 'over' the total.  And that's the way we will look in this game vs. New York, as five of the last six meetings between these teams have sailed 'over' the total.  It's true that the Giants' last few games have gone 'under,' but they've now gone 'over' 29-11 in games with O/U lines less than 48 points, if their two previous games went 'under.'  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'under' the total.  Last week, the Buccaneers spotted the Atlanta Falcons 17 points, and trailed 17-0 at the half, before storming back in the 2nd half for a 31-27 victory.  They're now installed as a double-digit favorite at Detroit, which lost 46-25 at Tennessee last Sunday.  Both of these teams have played their games predominantly over the total this season.  Detroit has gone 9-5 'over,' while Tampa has gone 8-6 'over.'  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here.  But be careful, as NFL games between two teams whose previous games both totaled 58+ points have also gone 'under' the total 57% over the last 41 years.  The 'under' also falls into 102-47, 107-76 and 267-211 Totals systems of mine.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the Lions and Bucs 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'over' the total.  Both of these teams come into this Monday night game off a string of 4 unders in a row.  The Steelers' last four games have averaged 36 ppg, while Cincinnati's last four have averaged just 32 ppg.  Pittsburgh's problems have largely been on the offensive side of the ball, as they've not scored 20+ points in any of their last 3 games (after scoring 24+ in each of their first 10 games this season).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here.  But consider that NFL games have gone over the total 58% of the time over the last 41 seasons if both teams were riding an 'under' streak of at least four games.  That bodes well for the 'OVER' tonight.  As does the fact that the Steelers have sailed 'over' the total in 26 of 44 if they were on a 2-game (or worse) losing streak.   Take the Monday Night game 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia/Arizona game.  The Cardinals' last four home games vs. non-division foes have gone 'over' the total, as have 29 of Philly's last 44 road games.  It's true that the Eagles had played six straight 'unders' before going over the total in last week's 24-21 victory over New Orleans.  But I consider that game a harbinger of things to come (at least, from an over/under perspective) as over the last 41 years, teams that finally go 'over' the total after 5+ unders, tend to go over the total a 2nd straight game more often than not.  Additionally, the Eagles and Cardinals fall into a Totals system of mine that has cashed 67% since 1980.  Take the Philadelphia/Arizona game OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Miami/New England game.  The Patriots have played each of their last five games 'under' the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially given that the Patriots scored just three points last week, and that the last meeting between these clubs totaled just 32 points.  But teams off 4+ unders have tended to go OVER the total when the line was 42 points or less (349-298 OVER).  Moreover, New England has gone over in 11 of 13 after scoring less than 10 points.  And division match-ups have gone over 282-231 when the first meeting of the season totaled less than 33 points.  Take the Patriots and Dolphins to go OVER the total.