Sports Picks & Predictions

The Kent Golden Flashes have not done a whole lot on the football field over the course of their history. They were 11-3 back in 2012, but since joining the FBS back in 1990, they have had just 1 other winning season, and 2017 is not going to be another. The Golden Flashes have arguably the worst offense in NCAAF at the FBS level, and have yet to taste the end-zone in their 3 games vs FBS opponents, losing by combined scores of 119-6. The Flashes have an even bigger problem this week, as they are 8-27 passing in those 3 games for just 129 yards. QB Nick Holley is now done for the season, with a knee injury, and as bad as the passing game has been, it is about to get worse. kent can't run either, as they have 147 carries for 400 yards, less than 3ypc vs FBS opponents. The Bulls allow less than 20ppg, and have played Army and Minnesota, and have been better than average against the run. While Buffalo also lost their starting QB, the kent defense has been almost as bad as the offense. This is clearly a mismatch, and will gladly lay single digits here, as Kent may end up not scoring in this one at all. Make the play on Buffalo.

Friday September 29th, 2017

  Top Side Play · [110] Utah State Aggies
    Fri Sep 29th, 2017 8:00pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

Last year the Auburn Tigers finished the season with the 5th best defense in the country, and playing in the SEC, that is making a statement. They have an even better defense this season, and through 3 games, they are ranked #1 allowing a stingy 201ypg, and held the Clemson attack to 14 points. They have a good chance of shutting out a poor Missouri offense, that has some very misleading numbers. The Tigers opened with Missouri St., and proceeded to pile up over 800 total yards, but against SC and Purdue, they managed 13 total points, and could not move the ball at all. The Missouri defense allowed 31.5ppg a year ago, and had to replace 6 starters, and have allowed 36.3ppg so far without facing a stellar offense. Auburn has Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham at QB, and while he has not been great he has been adequate. Auburn's numbers don't look as good as they could, after turning the ball over 5 times a week ago, but teams playing as a road favorite of -14.5 or more, off a game where they had a -3 or worse turnover are 50-19 ATS in their next game. I think Auburn has had a tough week of practice after the 5 turnover debacle a week ago, and will be ready to blow this one wide open. Make the play on Auburn.

Both these teams opened vs opponents that were way over their head, and started 0-2, but each had a cupcake last week and got much needed wins. This will be the first highly competitive game each has played. Lane Kiffin has taken over at FAU, and this team will eventually be good, but for now, they will struggle. The Owls have been 3-9 for 3 straight years, but I expect them to be in the hunt for a Bowl game, and a win here is crucial to that outcome. The Owls should do well offensively here with QB Daniel Parr beating out former Florida St. QB DeAndre Johnson, and RB Gregory Howell Jr. has averaged 12.1 ypc on the ground. Buffalo has looked good defensively, but the offense is going to struggle. Buffalo had some awful numbers on both sides of the ball a year ago, and while they should improve on both sides of the ball there is a long way to go. The only player on offense right now is QB Tyree Jackson, but that being said he is completing just 54% of his passes, and leads the team in rushing. There simply is no one else making an impact, and I think Kiffin schemes to key on him, which will force someone to step up, and through 3 games we just have not seen that yet. Florida Atlantic fits in an impressive 70-23 ATS situation for this one as well. Make the play on Florida Atlantic.

One team that I projected as a potential National Championship team this year is Oklahoma St. Their 1st 3 games has done nothing to change that. They have an offense that is absolutely loaded, and Heisman candidate Mason Rudolph continues to improve. he threw for 28 TD's a year ago, to just 4 INT's, so add 11 more TD's and 1 NT, and he is the best in college right now. he also has the top receiver in James Washington, and a now sophomore RB in Justice Hill (1,142 yds last year), and so much more. This is by far the best offense in football. The question for this team is the defense, but they are improved and can potentially be very good. TCU is not the same team on either side of the ball, and lost 31-6 last year to the Pokes at home. TCU allowed 30+ points against them last year 7 times. They will be hampered on offense with Kyle Hicks likely out. QB Kenny Hill threw 13 INT's a year ago, and any improvement on offense is going to up to him. While TCU addressed their issue of size on the OL, it lacks experience especially against an offense of this magnitude. They stumbled too often last year against the better teams combining to score 22 total points vs W. Virginia, Oklahoma St., and Kansas St. Oklahoma has great special teams, and led the nation a year ago in opponent's starting field position. Last but not least, the Cowboys fit a super strong 104-42 ATS situation for this one. All Cowboys here, make the play on Oklahoma St.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be back in the national spotlight this season. They have passed their first test vs W. Virginia in their opener, and have started 3-0, out-scoring the 3 opponents 122-41. The Hokies like to run the ball and have done so 45 times a game, passing just 30. The ability to run has allowed QB Josh Jackson to throw in good spots and he has completed 65% of his passes at just shy of 10 yards per attempt and a strong 15.1 yards per completion. Hokies as usual will enjoy a strong special team's advantage here also. Old Dominion is 2-1 but wins over Umass, and Albany were not impressive, and allowed 53 points to North Carolina at home, completing just 14 of 32 passes. tech has the ability to put up 50+ here as well, but a difference from the NC game is, the Hokies can defend much better, and I don't see the Monarchs scoring 23 here as they did vs Carolina. This game fits a situation that has been 278-196 ATS, and has been even better of late. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Arizona coach Rich Rodriquez is under scrutiny, and his shallow recruiting has left a lot of holes on this Arizona team. His buyout is over 5 million, but he is treading on tender ground right now. Last year the Wildcats finished 3-9, their fewest wins since 2003, and things don't look very promising. The Cats lost 8 games in the Pac-12 a year ago allowing 44.8ppg in the losses, and have a defensive line with a pair o players under 250lbs. so they are getting pushed around. The QB position is held down by Brandon Dawkins, who has no WR's to throw to, and they are suited for the ground. problem is, the Utes allow less than 50ypg on the ground, and I don't see the Cats generating much. Utah attack improved with OC change, have a duel threat QB, and off to a 3-0 start. Utes have won 9 games in each of the last 3 years, and looks like they will likely get their again. Road teams in competitive games (+3.5 to -3.5), after a pair of ATS wins, and prior to week 8 are a blistering 70-23 ATS over the last 7 years, and the Utes qualify here. Make the play on Utah.

I think Bronco Mendenhall was a good hire for Virginia, but after his 2-10 season in his first year at the helm. Mendenhall himself admitted the scope of the rebuilding process is a lot greater than he thought. Virginia has had 1 winning season in their last 8 years, and despite what looked like a great game last week, beating Uconn 38-18, the Huskies are among the worst teams in the country, and have been for several years. The Cavs lost their prevoius game at home by 17 to Indiana to gain some perspective. I think that win has held the line down here, and playing at Boise St. is far from a walk in the park. Boise St. has a very strong defense, and while Washington St. scored 47 points, it was a triple overtime game, and the Cougars managed less than 5 yards a play. QB Brett Ripien will be back under center for Boise St. and while the offense does not have the level of playmakers it did a year ago, I think the Broncos dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides. The Broncos own a 119-20 SU mark at home, and amazingly, 86 of those wins have come by 13 points or more. Broncos 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 13 or less, and 89-57 ATS following a win vs a conference opponent. Make the play on Boise St.

The Holy War will take place in BYU this season. The Utes have owned this series of late, but most game have been close. BYU has shown no signs that they will be able to move the ball on the Utes, while Utah struggled early vs N. Dakota and got things rolling. BYU needs their defense to come up big here, because they are going to have trouble getting points. They have run the ball poorly, and the passing game has been to be kind, ordinary. Overall the Utes come into this game with the better team before the season started, and continue to look like more of a complete team since the season started. I think this is going to be a long year for BYU, as they have Wisconsin on deck, and are looking down the barrel of 1-3, with the lone win a struggle vs Portland St. Utah with a win and San Jose on deck could enter Pac-12 play at 3-0, and I like them here. Make the play on Utah.

Most don't consider Oklahoma St. to be an elite team, but since the start of the 2010 season, only 11 teams have more wins than the Cowboys. This team has not been afraid to run up the score, having won 21 games during the period by 30+ points. They have been especially strong outside the conference where they are 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS, during the regular season, and 9 of the wins have come by 30+. They have been favored by 28 or more points in 9 games, and have won by an average margin of 43.1ppg. They have a Heisman candidate QB, a plethora of talented skill set players and an improved defense. They also fit a very predictive situation, one that reads, road teams off a favorite win vs an opponent off a loss, to a line of more than -20 are 79-35-1 ATS. Mae the play on Oklahoma St.

Tennessee and Georgia Tech will travel to the Superdome in New Orleans to open their 2017 season. The biggest advantage in this game belongs to Georgia Tech. The SEC is known to be the toughest conference, especially on defense. That typically plays into the hands of an opponent that runs the triple option, or in modern terms the flex bone. The entire idea of the flex bone is to negate the better defenses ability to defend an opponent, and shorten the game, and bridge the gap. History proves that out. Looking at flex bone teams including Georgia Tech, Citadel, Navy, Army, Air Force, Georgia Southern, they have a combined ATS record vs the SEC of 25-3-2  if you don't include the Georgia Tech vs Georgia games, as Georgia sees it every year, playing their instate rival. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

UCLA caught a tough break when QB Josh Rosen went down with a season ending injury. UCLA finished 4-8 and were 1-5 without Rosen, who is on the NFL scouts radar. Texas A&M loses he destructive DE Myles Barrett from the defense, which was pretty much average with him. The UCLA defense lost 4 starters to the NFL, and will be a lot less talented and experienced than last season's very good defense. Overall, I think both offenses will have the advantage in this game. Kirk and Williams are  play makers on the Aggie's offense, and with Garrett gone on defense, and little pass rush, and an NFL caliber QB, I think this game is going to see a lot more points than projected. Make the play on the over.

Hurricane Harvey has forced this game originally scheduled to be played in Houston, to be moved to the Super Dome in New Orleans. That is good news for LSU, as this becomes a quasi-home game. BYU finished at 9-4 a year ago, but think the record has them overrated coming into this season. The Cougars finished +14 in turnover margin a year ago, and chances are they will not have the same good fortune this season. QB Taysom Hill is now gone, as is RB Jamal Williams, and Tanner Magnum will be under center. I don't think this team is as well coached now that Bronco Mendenhall has moved on. BYU is going to struggle running the ball, as Magnum is purely a pocket passer, and defenses, such as LSU are going to tee-off on him in bad down and distance situations. LSU is now under the direction of Ed Orgeron. he brought in Matt Canada to run the offense, and finally the explosive talent of the Tigers ill have a chance to shine, as Canada is going to open up the offense in a big way. Overall, this is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, and special teams. BYU is 0-6 ATS in the regular season vs the SEC since 1998, don't see anything to change that here.Make the play on LSU.

Going back to 1985, no Kentucky team has ever won more than 8 games. is there a chance the Cats accomplish that or more this season? This will be Mark Stoops 5th year, and he has built a team that is starting to look SEC caliber for the first time ere in years. They have 3 very likely wins outside the conference vs E. Michigan, E. Kentucky, and this one vs S. Miss. They have 3 SEC road games, that are winnable vs SC, Miss St., and Vandy, and do not play Alabama,Auburn, or LSU. They have their best team, and easiest schedule. Last year opened as poorly as it could have, with losses to S.Miss and Florida, but more disturbing was giving up 40+ in their first 3 games, with 2 opponents being S. Miss and N. Nexico St. They certainly got things turned around finishing the regular season 7-3 in their last 10 regular season games, and a win at Louisville to cap it off. Just 1 opponent scored 40+ the rest of the way. S. Miss loses one of their best QB's all-time, from an offense that eroded 7ppg from the previous year. Their top 15 defense from a year ago returns just 4 starters. Ken Howard will take over the offense, but a 44% completion rate, and 4 INT's vs ODU, and N. Texas a year ago, is great cause for concern. The offensive line is being rebuilt with JUCO's and freshman, so a questionable QB, with a new OL is highly suspect. Kentucky has revenge, and the goods to get it done. Make the play on Kentucky.

Utah St. has had a lot of recent success, having gone to a Bowl game in 6 straight seasons. That all came tumbling down last year when they finished 3-9. While the 3-9 finish was disappointing, they were not so far away from a different outcome, as they lost 5 conference games by a grand total of 29 points. Not many 3-9 teams finish the season having been out-scored by opponents by just 5.4ppg, but that was the Aggies fate a year ago. This team always seems to run the ball well (2000+ yards in 8 straight seasons), but with a new DC, promising to open the field, they may have a different look. Wisconsin should be good defensively, the question is, how will the offense be? QB Alex Hornibrook threw just 9 TD's and 7 INT's a year ago, and the running game is going to have a whole new look. The talent is there, but it may take a few games to show itself, and think the number is way too high here. Make the play on Utah St.

Friday September 1st, 2017

The South Florida Bulls had their best season ever a year ago, one which ended with a Bowl win over an SEC school in South Carolina. That led to the coach moving on to a P5 school, replaced by Charlie Strong. That means a new system on both sides of the ball, and having to travel 3000 miles or their opener, is not easy. The offense averaged over 42ppg a year ago, and scored 30 r more in every game. The problem was the defense. Despite such a high powered offense, the Bulls did not win any of their last 8 games by more than 20 points. San Jose is an interesting opponent. Mainly because OC Andrew Sowder, was a coach at Texas under Charlie Strong, now the coach at USF. His OC followed him to USF from Texas as well in Sterlin Gilbert. That means Sowder knows the lay of the land when it comes to the Strong coached, and Gilbert run offense of the Bulls. Sowder also coached under two powerful offensive minds at Bowling Green, under Dino Babers, and Baylor, under Art Briles. I think ther is a huge talent differential here, but a huge coaching edge on both sides of the ball for San Jose St. Points are simply too high here, make the ply on San Jose St.

Top Side Play · [151] Clemson Tigers                 +7    -112
    Mon Jan 9th, 2017 8:00pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

Teams that average 40.25ppg on the season, and are not a dog of 3 or more points, to a total of less than 64 are 17-0 to the under. Make the play on the under.

It was going to be impossible for Iowa to duplicate last season, but they did have a respectable season at 8-4, and had a huge win over Michigan. The issue this season has been the lack of much offense. The Hawkeyes 4 biggest games against Minnesota,Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn St. saw them score a total of 51 points, and they are going to be hard pressed to move the ball against Florida. Florida has 11 players, mostly on defense that are dealing with injuries, but the 3+ weeks off will get a lot of those players on the field. Florida gets this game in Tampa, and will have a big share of the crowd behind them. Florida held 8 teams to 10 or less points this season, and I don't see Iowa doing much offensively here. Iowa is in a bad spot historically for this Bowl game, one that is 13-44 ATS. Make the play on Florida.

Teams that average 40.25ppg on the season, and are not a dog of 3 or more points, to a total of less than 64 are 17-0 to the under. Make the play on the under.

Through 4 games this year Louisville looked like they were the team that was going to challenge Alabama for ther National Championship, especially after dismantling Florida St. 63-20. They lost game 5 to Clemson and never seemed to regain their swagger, and went 5-3 after the big start. Louisville played too many lackluster games, against Duke, and Virginia, and at home vs Kentucky. When they are right, they are unbeatable. LSU finished a disappointing 7-4. This team seemed just good enough to tease, but not get over the top, and their 4 losses came in their top 4 games vs Alabama, Florida, Auburn, and Wisconsin. They were not blown out in any of the games, just could not score enough to win, netting 37 total points in the 4 games, or 9.3ppg. Louisville has the elite defense that can do the same here, and the Cards apply to a 47-28 ATS Bowl situation, while LSU finds themselves in a 33-60 ATS spot. Make the play on Louisville.

Paul Johnson has had a lot more success running the triple option at Georgia Tech than anyone had imagined. This will be his 8th Bowl game with the Yellow Jackets, but for some reason, he has not done well in the post-season at just 2-5 SU/ATS. His team has averaged just 19.7ppg in Bowls. Kentucky will be playing its first bowl game since 2010, so you know this team will be stoked to be playing in one. The Cats closed the season 7-3, and no win was bigger than their upset of Louisville in their finale, so they should be a confident team coming in. Georgia tech fits a horrific Bowl situation, one that is 6-39 ATS, and recently it is 0-15 ATS. Hard to go against that. Make the play on Kentucky.

The Orange Bowl will have a pair of teams with a lot of Bowl history on their side. Michigan has been in 33 Bowl games since 1980 and Florida St. 34. The Noles are 22-11-1 ATS in their Bowl games, but have failed to cover their last 2. The Noles didn't quite stack up defensively this year, usually a strong suit. Their 3 toughest games vs Louisville, Clemson, and North Carolina saw them give up over 500 yards in each game. They allowed 4.9 yards per carry, and 10.0 yards per pass attempt. Overall, they allowed 66% completions, 7.2 yards per play. Michigan has a dominating defense that gave up just 12.5ppg this season, and at the saame time, an offense that averaged 41ppg. This is a huge mismatch, and many may feel that the loss to Ohio St. will have this team flat for this game, but read this. Teams with 2 losses, with one of the losses occurring in their most recent game, and favored by less than -10, vs an opponent off a win, are 17-0-1 ATS in their Bowl game. My 2016-17 Bowl Game of the Year, is on Michigan.

Teams that average 40.25ppg on the season, and are not a dog of 3 or more points, to a total of less than 64 are 17-0 to the under. Make the play on the under.

Air Force was the President`s Trophy winner this year, beating both Army and Navy. That worked out well this season because Air Force has limited teams that average 4.8ypc on the ground to 3.4ypc. The problem is a team that can at least be a threat in the air, where they have allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt to teams that average 7.8. S. Alabama does not run the ball well, but are slightly above average in the air. The Jags have some high quality wins on the season, beating both Mississippi St., and San Diego St., so their ceiling is higher than it looks. Air Force is in a Bowl situation that is 28-56 ATS, as well as another that is 3-20 ATS. make the play on South Alabama.

This game fits a bowl situation that is 29-7, make the play on the under.

This was supposed to be the year Tennessee broke through, and won the SEC East Title, with a shot to take down mighty Alabama. It never materialized. The Vols did finish a disappointing 8-4. Losses to SC, and Vandy late in the season, as well as a defense that allowed 31 points or more to 6 of their last 7 FBS opponents held this team back. Nebraska finished 9-3, with losses only to Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Iowa. Nebraska has not finished 10-3 or better since 2003, and will be motivated to get their 10th win. Tennessee is in a Bowl situation that is 36-73 ATS, and despite a defacto home game in Nashville, Nebraska travels very well. Tommy Armstrong will miss this game, but the line has over-adjusted for that, and will back Nebraska in this one.

This game fits a Bowl situation that is 20-2 ATS, and the play is on the under.

It has been 10 years since Colorado went to a Bowl game, so obviously the seniors on this team and everyone else is going to be bringing the `A` game. Oklahoma St. has been to Bowls many a time, but when they come into a Bowl game off a loss to their rival Oklahoma, they have rolled over and played dead at 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by 18ppg. Kind of tells you where their mind set is likely to be.The Cowboys are also 1-7 ATS as a Bowl dog, and face a bowl situation that is 61-103 ATS. Motivated team takes this one. Make the play on Colorado.

This game fits a Bowl totals situation that is 9-32 O/U and the play is on the under.

It has not been a very good stretch for teams that lost their conference championship game when it comes to their bowl game. Virginia Tech lies in that treacherous path today. Last year these 8 teams went 0-8 SU/ATS. This year the only winner has been LA tech, but they beat a team that also lost their conference championship game. Arkansas Finds themselves in situations that are 24-4 ATS, and one that has SEC Conference teams as a dog from 7 to 10.5 points at 18-5 ATS, going 11-12 SU in the 23 games as an average 8 dog. Make the play on Arkansas.

South Florida had a great season, but they will be playing this one with T.J. Weist as an interim coach, as Willie Taggert has moved on. That doesn`t usually work out so well. The AAC has begun to look like an over-rated conference, as they are a woeful 1-5 in their 6 Bowls so far, and now 6-16 in conference history. They have also been just 4-6 SU in Bowls as a favorite. South Carolina is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Bowls. They are said to be excited as well as the fan base, of the direction of this team, after finishing 1-7 in conference play last year. They are also 3-0 lifetime vs the AAC. South Florida fits a horrible Bowl situation that is 3-20 ATS, that plays against certain bad defensive teams. SEC teams that scored less than 14 points in their last game are 11-2 ATS in their Bowl game, and SEC teams that are a dog from 7.5 to 10.5points are 18-5 ATS in their Bowl game as well, going 11-12 SU in those games as an average 8.4 point dog. Make the play on South Carolina.

Teams that average 40.25 or more points per game, and playing to what looks like a low total for that big of an offense, set at less than 64, and are not a dog of 3 or more points, are 17-0 to the under in their Bowl game. Play this one under the total.

The Kansas St. Wildcats under Coach Bill Snyder have been point spread darlings throughout his coaching tenure, but that has not translated well to Bowl games. Kansas St. is just 7-12 SU in Bowl games, and a woeful 5-14 ATS. Those numbers are even worse lately, as they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Bowls, as well as 1-9 SU. Kansas St. is a very strong team on the ground, both running the ball and stopping the run, but are very mediocre against the pass on both sides. The good news for AM is QB Trevor Knight will be playing. His running ability adds another dimension to the Texas AM offense, and the Aggies are 7-2 in his 9 starts where he finished the game, losing only to defensive walls Alabama, and LSU. I don`t think they will have to deal with quite the same resistance here against Kansas St. Kansas St. has not only been an under-achieving Bowl team, but they fit a Bowl situation which is a woeful 13-45 ATS. Make the play on Texas AM.

The Indiana Hoosiers played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. While they finished at 6-6, they saw 4 of those losses occur against Penn St., nebraska, Michigan, and Ohio St. They lost those 4 games by an average of 12.5ppg, so they certainly were not embarassed. despite all the tough games, the Hoosiers won the line of scrimmage by 61 yards per game. They throw the ball very well, and for a team that has been all offense in recent years, they are above average defensively as well. Utah at 8-4 grades out as an average team on both sides of the ball, and appear statistically to be considerably over-rated, and things started to catch up to them after a 7-1 start, finishing 1-3. I think Indiana is slightly better on both sides of the ball, and Utah also fits into an ugly Bowl situation that is 36-70 ATS, while the Hoosiers fit a situation which is 22-4 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on Indiana.

It was a very strange season for Miami, Fla. They won and covered their first 4 games, lost and failed to cover their next 4 games, and won and covered their last 4, so what happens now? They will be playing close to home in Orlando, so they should have a good representation here against West Virginia. The Mountaineers were 10-0 outside of Oklahoma, falling only to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. This is a team that has flown under the radar all season, finishing at 10-2 in a power conference. remember, there are only 4 power-5 conference teams in the country with fewer losses. The Mountaineers are a very balanced team, they don't do anything elite, but they are extremely good running and passing, as well as defending the run and pass. Miami better come to play, but Bowl teams off 3 straight wins and ats wins, with a few other things added in are 13-44 ATS in Bowl games, which doesn't bode well here for Miami. Make the play on W. Virginia.

This is strictly a situational Bowl play. Teams that scored 60 or more points in their last game are 0-10 ATS when facing a team with less than 8 wins in a Bowl game.

I`m sure everyone is aware of the fact that 10 Minnesota players are suspended for this game, for alleged involvement regarding a sexual assault. That now has Washington St. as the highest percentage public pick of all remaining Bowl games. That may be all you need to know, as it is a knee jerk reaction by the public, and I think the line has `over` reacted. None of the players are key for this game, but it will challenge the depth and heart of this Minnesota team, but often when things look bad, a team finds an extra gear. Washington St. had a strange season. They opened with 2 losses, and closed with 2 losses, and won all 8 of their games in-between. Minnesota faced Penn St., Iowa, and Nebraska, and lost by a total of 17 points, and 2 of the 3 were on the road. I think they are better than a double-digit dog in this contest, and they also apply to a 26-5 ATS situation. Make the play on Minnesota.

Minnesota has a lot of suspended players, but none of the lost players are big impact players. They are going to have to stay in this game with their defense, which has been the strength of this team all season. They are likely to try and run a lot more than usual just to shorten the game, as they are going to be lacking depth in some areas. Washington St. is known as a big offensive team, but the best unit they put on the field this year is their defense. Certain tesams that score over 40ppg are 15-0 to the under in their Bowl game, and it applies against Washington St. here. Make the play on the under.

Temple has put together their best 2 years in a long time, as they have won 10 games heading into their Bowl. This looks like a complete mismatch, as the Temple defense has been a brick wall in their last 5 games, limiting opponents to a grand total of 20 points, or 4ppg. So how can Wake Forest stay in this game? That is at least how most see this one. While that makes good copy, it doesn`t necessarily make a winner in a Bowl game, in fact, an argument can be made that it works against them. Teams that enter a Bowl game that have allowed less than 7ppg in their last 5 games are 0-7 ATS the last 7 occurrences. Overall, when a team has allowed less than 7ppg in their last 5, and facing a poor offense that averages less than 24.1ppg, they are just 1-3 and have been out-scored allowing 21.3ppg. Temple is in bad Bowl situations otherwise as well, which are 3-19, 36-70, 61-103, and 28-53. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Army snapped a 15 game losing streak against their rival Navy, and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. If your worried about a letdown, the Army is 3-0 ATS since 1984 in their Bowl game after beating Navy. They also have another score to settle vs 5-7 North Texas. North Texas beat Army at west Point earlier in the season 35-18. Army ran 88 plays to North Texas` 50 in that game, and the difference was a ridiculous 7 turnovers by Army, tying them with Tennessee for the most turnovers in a game this season. North Texas lost their starting QB for this game Mason Fine, and he will be replaced by 5th year senior Alec Morris. Morris is a slight downgrade to Fine, completes a lower percentage at a 0.5 yard per attempt less as well. The Mean Green has another issue, and that is the knee of their top RB Jeff Wilson, who is going to give it a try in this game, but not at 100%. Army is 14-1 ATS playing in Texas, where a lot of their players are from. A win will give the Army 8 wins, the most they have had since 1996. teams that lost in a game earlier in the season as a favorite, and face that team in a Bowl game, also as a favorite are 5-0 ATS, covering by 10.20 points per game. Make the play on Army.

Both these teams needed to win their last game to get to 6-6, and it is an opportunity to close the season, with a positive. There is an interesting division, with both the Maryland offense, and the BC defense, that seems to dictate which way to go here. Maryland played 6 games vs mediocre or bad defenses, and averaged 40ppg. They also faced 6 teams with above average or elite defenses, and averaged 14.3ppg. That spells trouble vs a BC defense that was similar. BC struggled against above average offenses, and allowed 37.3ppg, but against mediocre offenses, they allowed 6.8ppg. The BC offense is poor, but Maryland`s offense is going to really struggle here. Make the play on BC.

What a turn of events for this Miami,O. team. They opened the season at 0-6 and could of easily packed it in, but went on to win 6 straight for a Bowl bid. They certainly did not have any big wins, but Bowl games are about the team feeling, motivation, and they certainly have the edge here. Miss St. is 5-7, is only in a Bowl because of the volume of bowl games is greater than deserving teams. They can`t even get to.500 with a win, and after a schedule of big SEC games, I can hardly see them bringing their season stats to this game. This has been the case throughout Bowl history, as teams that are .770 or less, and favored in a December Bowl game their bowl game by more than 14 points are 0-12 ATS since 1980. They have lost 5 of the 12 games straight up as an average of a -16 point favorite. We have already witnessed this in 2016, as Idaho, a 16 point underdog, won easily outright over Colorado St. I see a similar outcome here. Make the play on Miami,Ohio.

It has been a record setting year for Troy, as their 9-3 record ties for the most wins in their FBS history, and their .750 winning percentage is their best. Things started great as they opened the season at 8-1, with the lone loss coming at Clemson by a scant 6 points. They were at one point 4-0-1 ATS through 5 games, but fell from there finishing 2-5 ATS in their last 7, dropping 2 of their last 3 straight up. Ohio U. nearly pulled an upset of their own in the MAC Championship game, and a late interception, on a potential go ahead drive was stopped by an INT in a 29-23 loss to 13-0 W. Michigan. Ohio, U. was blistered for 56 points vs Texas St. in their opener, but not a single team scored 30 on them the rest of the season. That includes a pair of p-5 conference teams, Toledo, and W. Michigan. Both defenses will be the best units on the field as each offense is limited. This game also fits a pair of bowl situations that have been 28-6, and 14-2, both to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits 2 Bowl specific situations, one is 28-6 and the other is 27-7 (completely different situations, just very similar results). Make the play on the under.

This may be the last Bowl in the FBS for Idaho, as they are are stepping down to the FCS for the start of the 2018 season. This should be a highly motivated spot for Idaho, who could match a team record 9 wins if they can come away with the big upset here. They are playing in Boise,ID in their home state, and their 2 appearances in this Bowl, were both wins. The Vandals lost 4 games all season, and all 4 were to teams that are in Bowls, and combine to have just 11 losses on the season. The bad news is, all 8 of their wins came against a team with a losing record. They do enter this game however having covered 7 straight games. Colorado St. has also covered 7 straight games and closed on an offensive tear vs some very good teams, beating San Diego St., Air Force, and N. Mexico, while scoring 158 points, or 52.7ppg. Double digit dogs that allow more than 29ppg are 14-2 ATS in a Bowl game. December Bowl teams with a winning percentage of .770 or less and are favored by more than 14 points, are 0-11 ATS, having lost outright in 4 of them! One of them was this same Idaho team, in this same Bowl beating Southern Miss as a 17 point dog 42-35. de ja vu?

Make the play on Idaho.

When a bowl game lines up a pair of teams, and neither are from a power-5 conference, and there is an outlier total (less than 50 or greater than 70), the under is 14-1. Make the play on the under.

There is no doubt that LA Lafayette will be the school with more fannies in the seats as the New Orleans Bowl is right in their back yard. They are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at the Superdome in this Bowl, but all those teams finished the season at 8-4. This is not a team anything resembling those teams. They own just 5 wins vs FBS teams and have beaten just one team above .500 (Arkansas St.). Southern Miss is also 6-6, but match up well here, as the Lafayette offense is much below average, and the worst of their defense is against the pass where S. Miss is above average, and S. Miss is one of the healthiest teams in the Bowls coming into this contest. S. Miss owns big wins over Kentucky, and LA Tech to get here. Lafayette is in a brutal Bowl situation that is 13-44 ATS. Make the play on S. Miss.

The Toledo Rockets and the Appalachian St. Mountaineers will both be looking for a win to complete what would then be a 10 win season. There has never been a game between these teams, but there is some history. Appalachian St. Coach Scott Satterfield spent a year as Toledo`s QB coach, and passing game coordinator. Appalachian St. runs out of the triple option, and that is a tough system to defend, and it is purely a ball control offense. Teams running out of this set, are 29-14 to the under in Bowl games. The Mountaineers have allowed just 10 passing TD`s all season, and has picked off 20 passes this season. App St. set a Sun Belt Conference record allowing jut 94 points in 8 games. Teams facing each other, and both are not from a power-5 conference in a Bowl game are 14-1 to the under when the total is not extreme (meaning not less than 50, and not greater than 70). Make the play on the under.

central Florida is the only team since 2004 to go win less the previous year, and make a Bowl the following year. UCF has now done it twice! Arkansas St. opened the season a dreadful 0-4 SU/ATS. It certainly appeared their string of 5 straight winning seasons was coming to a close. While losses to Toledo, Auburn, and Utah St. were not so unexpected, a loss to C. Arkansas made things look ugly. The Red Woves resoundingly turned things a round and finished at 7-1 the rest of the way, 5 points from 8-0. They averaged beating teams by 17ppg, and allowed just 15.2ppg. Central Florida may have made a huge turnaround, but their 6 wins came against 5 FBS teams that were a combined 18-42 SU, with no team better than 4-8, and a win vs a losing FCS team, hardly a resume that jumps out as says solid favorite for this game. Arkansas St. fits a Bowl situation that is 96-58-2 ATS. Make the play on Arkansas St.

This is one of the most popular games in NCAAF, as there are so many retired vets brought up on this game, as well as National interest from many. Army is 6-5 on the season, and will go bowling for the first time since 2010, and the 2nd time since 1996. Shockingly, this is just the 3rd time since 1980, that both these teams come into this game with a winning record. Army ranks #2 in the nation on defense behind Michigan, but with a pathetic schedule facing a pair of teams well below the FBS, and loaded with cupcakes, this team is hardly as good as the numbers. Offensively they went for 60 in 3 really lopsided and disadvantaged opponents, but just 15ppg otherwise. Navy lost their QB and top RB against Temple, but this is an offense that isn`t dependent on any one player, but precision execution. The game opened at Navy -11.5, but the betting line on Army is long, as many think this is the year they break out of a 14 game losing streak. I don`t see it. Navy has a poor pass defense, but are at least average vs the run, and strong against the option, as they see it every day as does Army. Navy wasn`t a top 25 team for no reason, and while they may not be now, they are truly more than 4 points better than a poor Army team, with fake stats. Navy is 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS vs Army in this series with a line from -3 to -14. Make the play on Navy.

Arkansas St. went into last week with a 15 game conference winning streak, and despite out-gaining their opponent 521-292 they lost by 5 points. That is a misleading result, and one that should serve them well here. Arkansas St. is holding their conference opponents to -72 yards per game from their average, while averaging +92 yards in those games. Texas St. is -184 yards per game in conference play, have dropped 7 straight, and statistically are among the worst team in the FBS on both sides of the ball. Texas St. has been out-scored 137-31 the last 3 weeks. Since 1999 a team that has been out-scored by 100 or more points in their last 3 games, and playing as a 21 point or more hime dog, are 9-18 ATS, losing by 33ppg, and have been shutout 7 times! Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Colorado Buffalos have had their best season in a long time, finishing the regular season at 10-2. They lost back to back games at Michigan, and USC, but they come with a big "what if". QB Sefo Liufau was injured early in the 3rd quarter against Michigan, 28-24. He was picking apart one of the best defenses in the country throwing for 9.8 yards per attempt, 3 TD's and 0 INT's. He went out after the first 2nd half drive, and Colorado did not score again. That carried over to USC, and the Buff's lost 21-17 without Liufau. You can argue, they may have gone 12-0 with him. Washington will be under severe pressure as they have to win and perhaps win big, to secure a spot in the four team playoff to a National Championship. I think there is some hidden value here, as Liufau was strong vs one of the strongest defenses, and can keep Colorado in the game here. Make the play on Colorado.

The Western Michigan Broncos are in rarified air at 12-0 for the first time ever, as they take on the Ohio, U. Bobcats for not only the MAC Championship, but for a berth in the Cotton Bowl. This group of seniors were 1-11 just 3 years ago, so they have come a long way. W. Michigan has dismantled Ohio,U. over the last 2 seasons, winning by a combined 56 points, and most everyone thinks this game is going to be a breeze. If history has anything to say about it, then W. Michigan is in big trouble. When an NCAAF Championship Game features a team that on the season has a winning percentage of .250 or more greater than their opponent (100.0 to 66.7% here or 33.3%), they are 6-15 ATS. If the line is from -6.5 to -20.5 they are 0-11 ATS. What is more amazing is the fact that these teams are also 7-4 SU as an average -13.6 point favorite! They have lost straight up as -14.5 favorites twice, and as a -20.5 point favorite. Make the play on Ohio, U.

The Clemson Tigers at 10-1 on the season have their playoff fate in their own hands. A win vs SC, and an ACC Championship game will put the Tigers in the final 4. South Carolina has bounced back from a 3-9 season, to be Bowl eligible at 6-5, despite being out-scored on the season. Part of the reason is they avoided the top 3 teams in the SEC West this year Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. They have been 1-8 SU on the Sec road the last 2 years, with the only win coming vs Vanderbilt 13-10. They have averaged just 11ppg in their 4 road games this year in the SEC. Clemson is out-gaining opponents by 172 yards per game, and like the SEC opponents that thwarted the pedestrian SC attack this year on the road, look for Clemson to pitch a shutout here, or close to one. Make the play on Clemson.

This is a tough spot for Marshall, which has been a solid program over the years. Marshall was 33-8 SU over the last 3 years, but graduation losses were heavy, and this young team is just 3-8 on the season, and still has a lot of growing up to do. The Herd is well below average on both sides of the ball. W. Kentucky was 3-33 SU in their first 3 years at the FBS level, but turned things around swiftly, and have had 6 straight winning seasons since, and win here will give them an opportunity for another 10 win season in their Bowl game. The Hilltoppers are an elite passing team, which is a major weakness with this Marshall team. W. kentucky is averaging better than 50ppg in their last 6, and has won their last 4 games by an average of 37.5ppg. This game also has a situation that favors WKY at 78-35 ATS, and this should be a colossal blowout. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

No surprise that Navy once again has the triple option rolling, as they have averaged 312 yards on the ground per contest. The Middies have now had a winning season in 12 of their last 13 campaigns, and only 18 teams in the FBS have recorded more wins. They are 25-5 SU in their last 30 games, and when they play in Texas, as I have mentioned many times, they dominate. SMU has made considerable progress after closing out the last 2 seasons with a combined 3 wins. They are still a very pedestrian team that has allowed 31 or more points 8 times this season, and better than 40 on 4 occasions. This game also fits a 57-17 ATS situation, make the play on Navy.

Alabama is 58-4 SU at home under Nick Saban. His teams signature is the defense, always has been since day 1. His teams at home have been next to impossible to score on allowing 9.4ppg in 60 played here. That has led to a 16-42-2 O/U mark under Saban at home, including 8-25-2 O/U in conference games. When the total is below 49, is it is in this one vs Auburn, and they are not favored by 34 or more points, with a total of less than 49 they are 0-14 O/U. Make the play on the under.

Kansas and Kansas St. have been rivals for a very long time, but among rivalry games, this one has been brutally one-sided. Kansas is better than last year's 0-12 team, but not much, as they will conclude the 2016 season winning 3 games or less for the 7th straight season. It has been ugly for the Jayhawks on the conference road where they have won 1 time or less in 18 of their last 19 seasons, and have now dropped 35 consecutive road conference tilts, where they are 10-24-1 ATS, losing by an average of just about 30ppg. Kansas fits an uglier 4-34 ATS situation for this game, and owns a 27-58-2 ATS mark in their last 87 as a road dog. Kansas St. meanwhile is in a 94-49 ATS situation here. Kansas St. is on a merciless 7-0 SU/ATS run in this series, winning by 32.4ppg. Make the play on Kansas St.

Tommy Tuberville may be in trouble at Cincinnati. His Bearcats have had a very tough season. It has become pretty evident that his team has quit on him. The Bearcats last 4 games have produced a grand total of 26 points of offense, and in their 7 losses they have averaged less than 12ppg. Tulsa has an 8-3 record losing to just Ohio St., Houston, and Navy, all top 25 teams. Outside the top 25 they are a perfect 8-0 and 6-2 ATS, and averaging nearly 50ppg, and have piled up an average of 555 yards of offense. They certainly can score enough here to get well over the top vs a team that has completely lost its way. Tulsa has dropped 5 straight at the hands of Cincinnati. including an 11 point loss last year. The Golden Hurricanes have their sight on a 10 win season, if they win here, and win their Bowl game, so plenty to play for, and revenge is just an extra sweet reason. Make the play on Tulsa.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

Sometimes when you look at a game, keeping things simple are the easiest approach. Looking at this game, Navy has run the triple option forever, and there is no secret as to what they are going to do. They run the ball 85% of the time. Their success is measured by staying ahead of down and distance. This year they are averaging over 300 yards a game on the ground, at 5.5 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.8. East Carolina has struggled against the run all season, but as bad as the numbers look, they are even worse. They have held 5 teams to less than 200 yards on the ground (you'll see the significance of this further down). Those teams were as follows. Uconn a team that averages -1.0ypc than the opponents allowance per carry, W. Carolina a 2-8 FCS team, SC who is -1.1 yards per attempt vs the defenses they faced, Virginia Tech -0.4, and Cincinnati -0.6. Those teams generated 695 rushing yards or 139 a game. Then there are these teams. NC St. -0.2 (215), C. Fla. -0.3 (217), SMU -0.0 (242), S. Fla +2.1 (306), Tulsa +0.7 (345). They have faced just 3 plus rushing teams on the season and gave up 962 rushing yards, all over 300ypg. Enter Navy and the triple option, would it be fair to say Navy has an 80% or better chance of getting to 200? I ask that because the last 18 times Navy has rushed for 200 or more yards they are 18-0 SU and 13-4-1 ATS (11-1-1 ATS lately). Navy is as follows in all games: rush for 200+  68-45 ATS, 225+ 65-42 ATS, 250+ 64-34 ATS, 275+ 56-27 ATS, 300+ 51-23 ATS. They certainly are in a very favorable spot. Make the play on Navy.

Wyoming has had a break out season after winning just 2 games in 2015. The credit begins and ends with 3rd year head coach Craig Bohl. Bohl was the architect of a North Dakota St. team that has dominated the FCS, where his teams went 104-32, winning the NCAA Division 1 Championship in each of his last 3 years. His team may have gotten caught looking ahead to SD State last week, as they lost to UNLV in 3 overtimes, despite recovering a fumble in the end-zone for a TD, returning a punt 60 yards for a TD, and scoring as time expired in regulation on a 19 yard pass. They could not contain the unLV ground game, which went for over 400 yards. A problem area for this team has been turnovers, despite a net +3 on the season, the Cowboys have coughed it up 17 times, and against a San Diego St. team that has an FBS high of 19 INT's on the season, that could be decisive in this contest. The Aztecs defense is by far the best in the Mountain West Conference, and the reason they are 17-0 SU and 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games. San Diego St. has won those 17 games by an average score of 35.9-104, covering by an unbelievable 14.26ppg. The Aztecs have their eyes set to earn a New Year's Day Bowl game, and if they win out, they are likely to achieve that goal. san Diego St. ranks 5th in the FBS allowing just 4.4 yards per play. The Aztecs run the ball alot, and rank 23rd nationally in time of possession, so Wyoming is going to have to take advantage of every play to stay in this game, and the Aztecs have allowed just 9 red-zone TD's all season, and the defense has 4 pick-6 TD's. Wyoming can throw the ball, but SDST ranks 11th in the country in pass efficiency defense. The last 14 teams to play more than 2 overtimes in their last game are just 4-10 ATS. Donnel Pumphrey, barring injury will become the career rushing leader in NCAA Football history. He has 6,051 yards and 59 TD's, and is currently 4th, trailing the career leader, Ron Dayne by just 346 yards. Wyoming lost to SD St. last year 38-3. If your worried about the 7,200 ft. elevation in Wyoming, consider that San Diego St. went to Colorado St., and Utah St. last year, both about 5000 ft. and won 41-17, and 40-13. This is a deep team, and Pumphrey ran 32 times vs Utah St. for 223 yards, and combined 52-344 at 6.6 yds carry, so no drop off. San Diego also fits in a situation that is 99-43 ATS, with Wyoming in a negative 51-118 ATS situation, and another that is 0-22 ATS. My NCAAF GOY is on San Diego St.

I understand this is BYU and Umass, and so do the odds makers, but I think they pressed this line. Umass has not lost a game by more than 28 points since playing Notre Dame last September, and they have played the likes of Florida, BC, SC, Miss St., Troy, and LA tech this season. Their average loss has been 17.2ppg in the 6. Umass is also off a bye, and have no players on their injury report. BYU has beaten just 1 FBS team by more than 28 points just 1 time in 2 years. The Cougars will not be focused here, their attention will be fixed on their next game for The Old Wagon Wheel vs Utah St., a huge rivalry.Umass has some good numbers vs good teams, and should at least hold their own here, make the play on Umass.

Once you get to week 9 of the NCAAF season, teams offenses and defenses have declared themselves as to what they are. When a game is posted from week 9 on with a total of less than 39, the mark stands at 1-19-2 OU. Make the play on the under.

Once you get to week 9 of the NCAAF season, teams offenses and defenses have declared themselves as to what they are. When a game is posted from week 9 on with a total of less than 39, the mark stands at 1-19-2 OU. Make the play on the under.

Baylor went 14 years without a winning season, but have now put together 7 in a row. They have been a much better team, but some of that is questionable as they refuse to take on out of conference teams that are a threat. The Bears are 63-24 SU over the period, but from week 1-5 they are 31-4, averaging 49.9ppg allowing 22.3. Then when they get into the meat of their schedule they are 32-20 SU from week 6 on averaging 40.4ppg allowing 35.2ppg. They wilt by 0ppg on offense and 13ppg on defense. They now must try and get by with a QB that has thrown just 35 passes at less than 50% in his career, and not mobile like Seth Russell. Additionally 2 key RB's were injured last game, and Shock Linwood is coming off suspension, so the offense is much weaker than they have been in a long time. Kansas St., and coach Bill Snyder are 22-9-1 ATS on 11-14 days rest, including 10-0 ATS in their last 10. They are 7ppg better with this kind of rest, than they are on regular 6 days rest. Make the play on Kansas St.

San Diego St. is improving every week, and for the last 2 years, their defense has dominated opponents. This is now a rising program, one that has won 7 or more games for 7 straight seasons. The Aztecs won 11 games a year ago, the most in program history, and at 8-1 they are ready to challenge that mark with a better 2016. They are improved on both sides of the ball, upping their offensive scoring from 32.4 to 35.8, and defending even better allowing 18.9ppg a year ago, to 15.1ppg this season, but the real story to the defense is the fact that they have allowed 5.2ppg in their last 5, and the Nevada offense is one of the worst in the FBS at 22.9ppg. The defense is as bad as the offense, and San Diego St. has a chance to pitch a shutout here. San Diego St. is 16-0 SU and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games, winning by combined scores of 35.2-10.1 or 25ppg. They have won the 3 games where they have been favored by more than 17 by an average score of 45-2! This game also fits a situation that is 30-4 ATS with a subset which is 21-0 ATS, make the play on San Diego

The records are similar in this game, with Colorado St. coming in at 5-4, and Air Force at 6-3. One big difference is the fact that Colorado St. has been playing the bottom of the conference against Fresno St. (1-9), UNLV (3-6), and Utah St. (T3-6). That is 3 of their 5 wins, and the other was vs N. Colorado as well as UT San Antonio. Things also took a step back when QB Colin Hill was lost for the season, and his replacement Nick Stevens has thrown for nearly 2 yards less per pass attempt, and neither are good runners. Air Force has wins over Army and Navy, and have the better team on both sides of the ball and playing at home as well, where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16. Make the play on Air Force.

There are simply few teams that are better from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball than Michigan. Iowa shocked almost everyone when they took a relatively easy schedule all the way to an unbeaten season at 12-0. They did not face Michigan St. or Ohio St. last year in the regular season. The problem is when they got to the Big-10 Championship game they lost to Michigan St., and could not stand up to Stanford in the Rose Bowl where they lost 45-16. It says a lot about how fortunate, and lucky last season was, and since going 12-0 they are actually a very ordinary 5-6, outscoring opponents by a scant 1.2ppg. This team is showing the visible signs of wear and tear as their last 2 were against Wisconsin and Penn St. The defense allowed 1,022 yards in the 2 games. Michigan is poised to come out big, and will likely remain unbeaten until their finale at Ohio St. Michigan has allowed 8 points or less in 4 of their last 5 contests, and 10 times in 2 seasons under Harbaugh, opponents have failed to get to 10. Michigan fits a 30-5 ATS situation, make the play on Michigan.

LA Tech may have the best offense in the country for a team that is not from a power-5 conference. The Bull Dogs are good over land as well as in the air, and also defend the run very well, and UTSA is not a very good passing team. The Bull Dogs are getting better as the season goes on, as they have won 6 straight games by an average margin of 21.3ppg, and have averaged over 52ppg in the process. UTSA has some misleading stats, and a lot has to do with the bounces, as they have had 4 games where their opponent has committed 3 turnovers or more. That will not likely be the case here as LA Tech has turned the ball over more than 1 time just once all season. Texas San Antonio also fits a very negative 49-104 ATS situation, and I'm not going against that. Make the play on LA Tech.

The Army Black Knights will travel to San Antonio, Texas to take on the Irish of Notre Dame. The Army is 0-7 SU against Notre Dame since 1980, but this may be one of their best chances. The game will be played in Texas, and that has been a haven for covering for Army. The Army has dozens of football recruits on their roster from Texas, and coaches say it is the most intense week of practice, as a lot of these kids try to make the travel squad. Parents of players often have a barbecue for players, and they often get to see friends and family, something that doesn't happen often if your at a military academy. Army already went to Texas once this year beating UTEP 66-14. The Army has a very good defense, and run the option, which keeps them in games vs better teams, and the record in Texas is 14-1 ATS. Notre Dame is 3-6 and having a poor season, and can hardly seeing them bringing a whole lot to this game. Make the play on Army.

This game fits a situation that is 139-91 ATS, plays on certain teams off a bye as a dog. Make the play on UNLV.

This will be a huge night for fans at Doak Campbell, as the Noles have not played a Friday Night home game in forever. The atmosphere will be electric. I think there is a lot of hidden value in this game, as the BC offense is going nowhere in this game, and the defense is vastly over-rated, and here is why. The Eagles have faced 5 opponents that have an offensive rank of 64-114 (bottom half of the FBS), and on top of that add Wagner. Boston College held these teams to 40 rushing yards on 28 attempts, and 135 passing yards on 135 attempts. Combined 68 plays for 175 total yards, 2.57 yards per play, and out-scored them 27.6-10.2, and they are 4-1 SU/ATS in the 5 games. They have played 4 games vs teams that rank 1-45 on offense. These teams have run for 190 yards on 38 attempts, and passed for 318 yards on 30 attempts, or 68 plays for 508 yards, at 7.5 yards per play. The average score has been 46.2-9.2. Florida St. has a very good offense, and while the defense is not up to speed with past Seminole defenses, it is more than equipped to handle a brutal BC offense. This game has major blowout written all over it. Make the play on Florida St.

Georgia Southern has only been in the FBS since the start of the 2014 season. They made a big splash winning 9 games in each of their first 2 seasons, but are not the same team this year. They run out of the triple option, but don't have the same caliber of players to run it this year. The 2014 season saw them at 53-383 per game on the ground, last year 56-363, but this year just 54-245. They have eroded 140ypg since 2014, and if you extract a game vs Savannah St. it drops to 222 ypg this year. They have averaged just 23.4ppg vs FBS opponents. LA Lafayette has a very poor offense, that has generated 13.3ppg in their last 3, but the one thing they do well is defend the run, allowing 3.1 ypa. LA Lafayayette runs 60% of the time, and Georgia Southern 73% of the time, so the ball will be on the ground a lot here burning clock. Since 2008 when a dog averages 125+ rushing yards per game, and playing to a total of 49 or less, the under is 519-367. Make the play on the under.(27-11 on Thursday games).

The W. Michigan Broncos at 9-0 on the season, are now the only unbeaten team from outside the power-5 conferences. They hold their own fate to get a G5 bid into a major Bowl game. They have won each of their last 8 games by double-digits, but that tends to start working against a team, especially as a road favorite. Teams 8-0 or better that won 8 straight by 10+ points, as road favorites from -7 to -24 are a woeful 4-17 ATS. It is basically due to the fact odds makers over-price them in anticipation of the public riding the "high horse." Kent St. is down to their 3rd QB, converted from RB, in Nick Holley. Holley has actually been a slight upgrade completing passes for 6.3 yards per attempt compared to the 5.3 by Mylik Mitchell. Holley of corse is a runner and has generated 9 TD's on the ground. Make the play on Kent St.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles joined the FBS in 1990, and it has been a most unpleasant journey, but there are signs of change in the air. E. Michigan has not won more than 6 games since joining, and here they are at 5-4 with 3 to play, and amazingly, will be Bowl eligible with just 1 win in their last 3 games. Coach Chris Creighton took over an impossible task, and after a couple of years struggling, he is starting to change the culture here, and his recruiting classes are an upgrade so the Eagles are now a competitive team in the MAC, and no longer a punching bag for opponents. The Eagles have lost the services of QB Todd Porter, but he was erratic, with 7 TD's and 9 INT's. Replacement Brogan Roback has been his equal in terms of completion percentage and yards per attempt, but much less prone to turning the ball over, with 10 TD's and just 3 INT's. While he is not a threat to run, as Porter was, the running numbers by Porter were better, but pedestrian at best, and I don't see it as a factor here. The best part of the EMU offense is the passing game, and against a very below average Cardinal back 7, they will find success in the air. Ball St. runs the ball pretty well, but EMU is a tick above the average of their opponents success on the ground, and could keep Ball St. behind the chains enough to have an advantage. EMU has been bad for so long, there is some line value here, and Ball St. is 0-10 SU in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Looking at Ball St. over the last 2 years, They have 2 wins vs FCS teams, and their opponents records are 10-41 combined over the last 2 years in their other 5 wins, and none of those teams finished the season with more than 3 wins. They are now 0-8 ATS following a conference loss of 10 or more points. QB Riley Neal is suffering from a knee injury, and will play, but if something happens, back up, Jack Milas is a tremendous downgrade. Make the play on E. Michigan.

This is always a blood bath, as these teams hate each other, and LSU would love nothing more than to put a chink in the Alabama National Championship hopes, but that is no small order. Ed Orgeron finds himself in a good spot. The man could not recruit at Ole Miss, and his 3 years there were a disaster, and he went 3-21 in his 24 SEC games. He has been proven to be a good coach when it comes to X's and O's, when he has someone elses gifted players. He went 6-1 in the Pac-12 as an interim, and he has LSU at 3-0, replacing Les Miles as an interim once again. Many ways, Orgeron has followed a path similar to Pete Carroll, and he takes something from that. He will need everything he has here to beat Alabama, but if this goes like the 4 meetings against Saban's troops in Baton Rouge it is going to be a dog fight, as none have ended with a margin of more than 7 points. Alabama is scoring 10.5ppg without its offense on the field, which is stunningly amazing unto itself, but despite of that they have had some close calls vs the best teams on their schedule, and right now, Orgeron has his LSU team playing at an extremely high level. Defensively, the Tigers are as close to Alabama as anyone in the country, and offensively they are pretty even right now. The fact is, since the start of the 2000 season, LSU has lost just 8 games at home by more than a TD, and the Tide, in all their glory has only managed to do it 1 time. The fact is, since October 10th, 2009, the Tigers have only lost here 1 time by more than 7 points. LSU looks like they are getting everything out of themselves since Orgeron took over, and I would not be surprised if they win this game outright. Make the play on LSU.

I have a lot of situations, but few I play blindly, but this one is 53-5 ATS with a 6.2 z-score, and play these games blindly as they arise. The play in this game is on Tulsa.

Life was painful at W. Kentucky, when they started the transition into the FBS in 2008. The first 3 years saw this team go 3-33 straight up in their first 3 years. They began a move forward in 2011 winning 7 games, and have had a winning team since. Former Louisville QB, Jeff Brohm took over in 2014 and the program took another leap forward, as they are 26-10, with 2 Bowl wins, and another bowl bid has been secured this year. The Hilltoppers passing game is elite, at 9.9 yards per attempt, and the offense has really gotten t going at 51.4ppg the last 5 contests. FIU is 45-97 SU lifetime in the FBS, and has never really gotten things going. The fact is they are just 10-56 SU vs a team that is .440 or better all-time. 25-39-2 ATS vs those teams. They have a worse than average pass defense, and their passing offense is far below average, and playing from behind, and having to throw the ball is not in their best interests. This is a blowout, make the play on W. Kentucky.

The South Carolina Gamecocks are at 4-4, saw a streak of 11 straight seasons at .500 or better come to an end a year ago, when they finished 3-9, their fewest wins since 1999. They may look like an improved team, but not as much as you would think. They have not beaten anyone by more than 6 points, and in their last 3 wins they had a turnover advantage of +9, and they were out-gained from the line of scrimmage in all 3 of those games. Missouri runs the ball very well, and that has been the weakness of the SC defense, as they do defend the pass pretty well. Perhaps the most telling story here is teams, such as Missouri, that have lost at least 4 straight, both against SU/ATS, and are a road dog of 5 or less in a conference game are 17-9 SU and 18-8 ATS. Make the play on Missouri.

This may be the ugliest game on the schedule this week. Florida Atlantic is 0-7 SU vs FBS teams this season, and Rice is 0-7 SU vs the FBS this season, so something has to give here. These teams boh enter this game with 1 win on the season, and in a game between 1 win teams from game number 8 out, the home team is 18-2 ATS, when facing a road team on regular 6 days rest, that is off a loss by 15 or more points. This is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1995. Make the play on Rice.

The Louisville Cardinals still entertain thoughts of playing for a National Championship at 7-1. They got a big scare last week, and I think that will serve as a wake up call here. The Cards are elite on both sides of the ball, and the pathetic BC offense has no chance in this game. We have seen the Eagles defensively dominate average to weak offenses on the season, and the stats say they are one of the nations best stop units, until you look at the 2 games where they played elite offenses, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, and they lost those 2 games by a combined 95 points, allowing 52.5ppg, and almost 500 yards a game. I see something similar playing out here, as the BC offense scored a grand total of 10 points on less than 200 yards a game. Ugly start to finish, make the play on Louisville.

It has not been a good year for the UCLA Bruins, who at 3-5 will have to scramble to become Bowl eligible. Things have gotten worse when QB Josh Rosen went down with an injury. Rosen had 10 TD's to 5 INT's, and threw for 8.3 yards per attempt. Mike Fafaul has taken over, and he has completed a lower percentage, and has 8 INT's already, and the Bruins have gone from an above average 8.3 yards per pass attempt to 6.4. That is a huge drop, and the Colorado defense is strong, and getting stronger, while the offense and passing game are generating 8.4 yards per attempt. Buff's allowing just 12ppg in last 4, have the edge here on offense, on defense, and at home, and now hold destiny in their own hands to reach the Pac-12 Conference Championship. Make the play on Colorado.

I have a very specific metric that is based on offense vs defense, applied to road favorites, that fits into this game perfectly. While it doesn`t come up a lot, it has projected 87.7 total points in this game. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation based on negative ATS margin over the past several games. It is 53-116-6 O/U, and the play is on the under.

No team in the country has faced a more difficult schedule than Wisconsin. They have already played against LSU, Ohio St., Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan St. The offense has not done very well on a whole, but they have faced 3 teams with top 10 defenses on the season. There are signs the offense is improving as their last 2 games vs a pair of tough defenses, they generated 6.1 yards per play vs Ohio St., and 5.8 yards per play vs Iowa on the road. The Badger defense has been tested by potent offenses, such as Ohio St. and Michigan, as well as the potent ground game of LSU, and combined to hold those 3 to under 20ppg on average. Nebraska has a much less offense, and at 7-0 they are about to get a reality check. Nebraska has not faced a good defense all season, as their 7 opponents average ranking on defense is 86.3 out of 128 teams, making them a power-5 conference offense that has faced the worst defenses of any power-5 conference team. I think Nebraska is an illusion at 7-0, and also have Ohio St. on deck. Make the play on Wisconsin. Make the play on Wisconsin.

The Baylor Bears come into this game off having played just 1 games since October 1st. They are 6-0 on the season, but the schedule ranks as one of the worst in the country. The perspective can be shown by the fact that the Bears have been favored by a combined 176 points in their 6 games, or by just about 30 points per game. Texas has 3 losses by 7 points or less, and come in at just 3-4 on the season. The Horns have covered 7 of their last 8 at home, and have won 5 of their last 6 here SU, with the only loss by 3 points. They are 9-3 ATS as a home dog of 4 or less. Baylor has started 6-0 in each of the last 4 seasons, because they refuse to play any team out of the conference that can beat them. There 24-0 record turns to 14-7 from game 7 on. Despite the big numbers this is not close to the Baylor offense we have seen in the last 3 years. Texas has played a much tougher schedule. Road favorites off a bye that are unbeaten from game 6 out, and not a prohibitive favorite (less than -44), are 5-23 ATS since 1997. Going for the upset here, make the play on Texas.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes took a hit in their quest for a national title last week, with a loss at Penn St. I look for them to rebound in a big way this week vs Northwestern. Northwestern has not played at the Show since 2007, and their road history in this series is pathetic. The Buckeyes are 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS (one of the 2 ATS losses by half a point), and have been outscored 44.3 to 6.8. The Wildcats have scored 9 points or less here in 11 of the 12 games, with the Buckeyes average cover +12.73 ppg. urban Meyer has coached at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida, and now Ohio St., with very few losses in the regular season. His teams are 18-4-1 ATS off a loss, and as a large favorite of -16 or more his teams are 6-0-1 ATS after a loss. Make the play on Ohio St.

The USC Trojans were beaten soundly by Alabama in their opener, and it seemed to rattle this team. They have really been playing better every week over their last 4 games, and the stats bear that out. They are generating 6.2 yards per play on the season, but 7.3 in their last 4 games, and the defense allowing 5.4 yards per play on the season, is allowing just 5.0 in their last 4 games as well. The bottom line is this team on the season is 0.8 yards better per play but that has changed to 2.3 yards better over their last 4, and have become a hidden elite team, despite being 4-3. California has been rather average from the line of scrimmage, but score a lot because of their shear volume of plays (88 per contest on average). I think that volume will drop vs USC, while the USC offense and defense enjoy a distinct advantage at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. Make the play on USC.

Whenever 2 option teams go at it, they know how to defend each other, as they see it in practice every day. That has led to a 6-26 O/U mark when option teams face each other in the right situation. Make the play on the under.

The biggest surprise in NCAA Football this year, may be the fact that Washington St. has a better defense than they do offense, although the offense is still putting up a lot of points. The Cougars are 4-2 on the season, and after an opening season home loss to E. Washington, they went to Boise St. and lost by just 3. They have been perfect since, and have out-gained all 5 of their FBS opponents on the season, and have looked like the better team from the line of scrimmage in all 5 games. Arizona St. is a somewhat tainted 5-2 on the season. They have a pair of good wins vs California and UCLA, but were out-gained by the Bruins by 168 yards and by the Bears by 183 yards. The difference maker was UCLA committed 4 turnovers, and Cal 3. Washington St. ran the ball just 22.5 times a game on average in their first 2, but have since been running 35 times a game, and have become more balanced. They are the better team on both sides of the ball and should get a comfortable win here. Make the play on Washington St.

The Ole Miss Rebels have had a tough schedule, and a tough time handling it, as they come into this game a disappointing 3-3 on the season. They have the unenviable task of taking on LSU in a night game in Baton Rouge. The Tigers are 91-12 SU her their last 103, and half of the 12 losses came to Alabama and Florida. They are 42-2 SU here vs teams .500 or worse over the period, and currently have a 32 game home winning streak vs .500 teams or worse. The better news is Leonard Fournette will play here, and the Rebels have yielded 200+ yards on the ground in 4 of their 6 contests. Make the play on LSU.

Arkansas has played well this season, and a lot of that has been in the hands of QB Austin Allen. Where the Razorbacks have struggld is against better teams, that have competent, or elite running attacks. Against TCU, A&M, and Alabama, they game up a ridiculous 825 yards on 103 carries. Auburn is all about the run, in fact they put it on the ground 55 times a game, with success. The problem is, if you load up the box against them, they can get big plays, and average 9.0 yards per pass attempt, when Sean White throws the ball. I can see a lot of success here for Auburn, controlling the line of scrimmage, and the Tiger defense has been pretty elite allowing 5.1 yards per play to teams that average 6. Arkansas is in a woeful 2-31 ATS situation for this contest as well. Make the play on Auburn.