Sports Picks & Predictions

The Boston College Eagles suffered a huge setback last week when starting QB Anthony Brown went down with a leg injury. He will be lost for the season. His replacement Dennis Grosel went 9-24 vs Louisville last week at 4.6 yards an attempt. Brown was generating 8.1 and had 9 RDs and just 2 INTs. The Eagles passing attack is not only going to take a hit, but the AJ Dillon led running game as well. The Wolfpack is going to load the box to dare NC to throw into their well-above-average secondary. This could lead to many 3 and outs and turnovers. The BC defense is horrible and while NC State is no better than average on offense, they should be able to move the ball against BC, as they are probably going to be on the field a lot more than usual further exposing them. Don't think the odds-makers have adjusted enough for Brown's injury. Make the play on NC State.

Saturday October 12th, 2019

  Top Side Play · [193] Charlotte 49ers
    Sat Oct 12th, 2019 7:00pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Analysis: The San Jose St. Spartans head to Nevada to take on the Wolfpack. There are some similarities between these teams. Both enter the game at 3-2, and each has knocked off a P5 team, with Nevada taking down Purdue 34-31 and San Jose St. taking down Arkansas 31-24. The Spartan`s win was eyeopening as they were a 3 TD underdog and went for over 500 yards for the game. Coach Brent Brennan`s team is a ball-hawking defense that has turned the opponent over 15 times in 5 games. San Jose St. was 3-22 SU over its last 2 seasons but signs that Brennan has this team on an up-tick were seen late last season when the Spartans closed the season 4-1-1 ATS and they are 4-1 ATS this season and are clearly a team under the radar. Senior QB Josh Love has played all 4 years and started the last 3 and has become very good. He has reached career highs with 62% completions, and 7.8 yards per attempt. He has thrown just 1 INT in 181 attempts on the season. Nevada has one of the worst pass defenses in the country allowing 8.6 yards per attempt and I expect Love to have a huge game. The Nevada offense is also very weak averaging just 4.6 yards per play on the season. Nevada is making a QB change as Malik Henry a JUCO transfer will be under center as they try to infuse a sluggish offense. I like the matchup here with Love vs Henry at QB as well as the defensive edge by the Spartans. Make the play on San Jose St.

Georgia St. opened the season with a huge upset at Tennessee as a 26 point underdog. That big win has been tainted by the fact that Tennessee is not a good team. That was on full display as they have since gone to W. Michigan and lost by almost 50 points and barely escaped FCS opponent Furman at home by 6. What interests me here is Arkansas St. QB Logan Bonner was injured and last week former Alabama recruit and QB Layne Hatcher was better than Bonner last week putting up freat numbers vs Troy in an upset win where the Red Wolves scored 50. The Georgia St. pass defense is really poor so another big game by Hatcher is in the cards. The Arkansas St. defense is 0.4 yards better than the offenses of their schedule of opponents, and I don't see Georgia St. being able to keep up. Arkansas St. has by far played the tougher schedule, and should pile up the points here. Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Purdue Boilermakers have had trouble keeping up in the rugged Big-10 and heading to a revitalized Penn St. program is not what the doctor ordered. Penn St. came into this season wondering how they would do with QB Sean Clifford as he had just 7 pass attempts his entire career. That question has been answered as Clifford is completing 66% of his passes at an ultra-elite 11.1 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and just 1 INT. He also is running at 5.2 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions rushing attack has seen 7 different players score a rushing TD. Purdue appeared set on offense behind QB Elijah Sindelar at 64.3% and 8.7 pards per attempt, but he is out with a collarbone injury and Jack Plummer has fared poorly at 51.4% at 6.1 yards per attempt and 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Making matters worse is the loss of the electric Rondale Moore at WR with a leg injury. This leaves the Purdue offense at extreme peril vs a very strong Penn St. defense. Home favorites off a 35+ point win vs an opponent that allowed more than 28 points last game, in which both teams scored more than a combined 57 points are 189-122-9 ATS 60.8%. When the line is in this range at -23.5 to -30.5 that goes to 44-22-7 ATS.

The Army program has risen after many years of futility, so at 3-1 on the season ot looks like they are strong again. That is not the case when you dig down into the numbers. Army (not including the Morgan St. game is averaging just 4.6 yards per carry which is very low for them. The defense is also down a notch and they have not faced a schedule of teams that run the ball nearly as well as Tulane. Willie Fritz has Tulane on a major upward trajectory, but it isn't seen by many as they have been bad for quite a few years now. The one thing that the triple-option does is make an opponent have to prepare for something they rarely if ever see. That is not the case here. Tulane has seen and defended the option 6 times since 2015 and has defended it extremely well. Tulane has defended 325 rushing plays and allowed just 1303 yards or 4 yards per carry. Those were poor Tulabe teams that combined to go 19-29 SU since 2015. Tulane has been considerably above average defending the run this season while generating 6 yards per attempt with their own running game. I think there will be a lot of running in this game as both teams put it on the ground for a combined average of 105 times per contest. Tulane has the edge in what will be a field position game and also has a much better passing game for more balance. Make the play in Tulane.

If there was ever a game that has been circled on a schedule it is tonight's Cincinnati Bearcats game vs Central Florida. Last year Cincinnati went into ESPN's Game Day to play in front of a frenetic crowd, with a freshman QB in Desmond Ritter, and the moment proved too big for him. Ritter has grown up since them and is continuing his success as an experienced sophomore now. While the Bearcats were brutalized on the scoreboard 38-13 they were in the game statistically. They were out-gained by just 23 total yards and ran the ball 55 times for 252 yards. C. Florida has a very strong secondary, but have proven vulnerable to the run. Cincinnati has a strong rushing attack, and will use it to best attack the Knight's defense, and keep the clock moving to keep the explosive C. Florida offense off the field. You have to go all the way back to December of 2016 to find the last time C. Florida was held to fewer than 30 points. That streak is going to end at some point, could it be tonight? This time the freshman QB is playing for UCF, and his 2 road outings vs FAU, and Pittsburgh were shaky. He will face a raucous prime time crowd, and the best defense he has seen all season. Cincinnati allowed 42 points at Ohio St. ( a season-low by the Buckeyes), while allowing 14 or fewer in each of their other 3 games. The Bearcats have by far played the tougher schedule. The Cats opponents have completed just 50% of all passes. The Cats will bring it tonight. Make the play on Cincinnati. 

The Hawaii Warriors will head to Mackey Stadium in Reno, Nevada to take on the Nevada Wolfpack. Both of these teams are 3-1 on the season, and it is a big deal to come out of this game at 4-1 for the winner. Hawaii has struggled as a program over the last 7+ years as they are not only 32-61 SU they are 34-55-3 ATS. They are in a tough spot here in Nevada. Most don't consider Nevada as a cold-weather place but the temperature is expected to be in the 30s. That is a far cry from the beach and 80s. Hawaii likes to throw a lot (45 times a game), and the cold weather leads to a slippery hardball, and it may impact their offense. Nevada has win 7 of the last 8 here and covered 6. The Wolf Pack has covered 9 of their last 12 at home, and remember Mackey Stadium is almost a mile high, and Hawaii is not a very deep team. Make the play on Nevada.

Wake Forest is off to a 4-0 start on the season for just the 5th time since 1980, but the 3rd time in the last 4 years. Unfortunately, the last 2 saw them finish 7-11 after the 4-0 start. Boston College immediately became a "stay away" from team with a 20 point loss to Kansas. This isn't the Kansas everyone has beaten up lately. This is a Les Miles Kansas team and he has his fingerprints all over this team already. I think BC got caught thinking they had an easy win and found out otherwise. BC has won exactly 7 games in 5 of their last 6 years, and can't seem to get over the hump. This isn't a team that is going to finish much better than those teams, and Wake Forest is getting a bit too much respect right now, and BC after losing to Kansas got right with a 30-16 win at Rutgers last week, and the Kansas game has them very underrated right now. Make the play on Boston College.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have long struggled in the SEC. They just don't seem to be able to recruit at the same level as their conference foes. They are however 21-4 SU vs the MAC, Mountain West, and C-USA. (10-2 vs the MAC). Overall they are 17-8 ATS in those 25 games. They currently own a 7 game winning streak vs the MAC with 6 of those by 11 points or more. They are 0-3 to start the season but the losses have come to LSU, Georgia, and Purdue. I would expect they will be all out for a win in this one. B. Illinois is 1-2 on the season and the defense has been poor and the offense mediocre. This is going to be a tough spot for the Huskies who have not played at home since August 31, and won't until October 5. Make the play on Vanderbilt.

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a surprising 3-0 start. They opened the season in impressive fashion with a 37-31 win over Missouri. The issue at hand here which offers a lot of hidden value is Wyoming is not what the record looks like. They were out-gained by Missouri 537-389 bit held a +3 margin in turnovers. They are 3-0 bit have been out-gained by every opponent they have faced and bot barely, but nu over 100 yards per game. This is a one-dimensional team that runs the ball almost every play because QB Chambers is completing 39% of his passes. They don't even have a receiver that has 65 yards receiving on the season. Tulsa is going to put 7-8 in the box and dare them to throw it. Moreover, Wyoming has had to defend 19 more plays a game than their opponent. Opponents have run off 240 plays and Wyoming 184. Tulsa had a big problem last year as they had no QB that could move the offense. Enter Baylor transfer Zach Smith and suddenly the Golden Hurricane have a passing attack. This team led Oklahoma St. at the half, but allowed TDs of 90 and 75 yards, but otherwise went toe-to-toe with them. They also lost to Michigan St. so the 1-2 recor is not what it looks like. Overall, Tulsa is a lot better than they appear, and Wyoming a lot worse. Make the play on Tulsa.

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

Michigan St. lost a tough one last week 10-7 at home vs a very underrated Arizona St. team. Michigan St. at this point of the season is seen by the public as being a one-sided team, all defense, and no offense. That is where the value lies in this game. Michigan St. has significantly under-achieved points vs the yardage the offense has generated. They have out-gained all 3 opponents by a combined 1289-794 or by 495 yards in 3 games. That just does not translate to the points they have scored. Northwestern graduated a lot of pieces from last year's team, but are pretty well stocked and the big question was at QB. That hole seemed to be filled by a highly ranked transfer from Clemson in Hunter Johnson. Johnson was supposed to be the type of runner and passer never seen before at Northwestern, but thus far he has been a huge bust. Johnson is just 18-42 42.9% with 1 TD and 3 INTs. he has run for just 68 yards on 22 carries. Nobody runs on Michigan St. and with Northwestern lacking a strong running game, and a weak passing game, they are going to be hard-pressed to score much at all here, and in fact, I would not be surprised if the Michigan defense scores in this game. Michigan St. has an above-average offense, and the poor scoring numbers are going to change. Michigan St. is going to come in ready off a tough loss, and will bring it. make the play on Michigan St.

Last year I was on Iowa St. for weeks and won every time. It is emotionally difficult to move away from them after all that. Iowa St. was transformed when Brock Purdy took over at QB. He had a game-changer in WR Hakeem Butler, that was a deep threat always. He also had an NFL RB in David Montgomery. Those are 2 pieces that are not going to be replaced, and we saw the impact on Purdy and the Iowa St. offense against N. Iowa. The Cyclones had trouble offensively, and Purdy was frustrated all day. It took Iowa St. 3 IT's to win that one at home and they really should have lost. The eye test says the offense is going to struggle against a good defense, while the defense still looks pretty good. Iowa is a challenge as the Hawkeyes always play well defensively and come into this game having shutout 3 of their last 7 Big-10 opponents, going back to last year. Hawkeyes travel well especially as a favorite where they are 17-0 SU and 15-1-1 ATS in their last 17 in this role. Iowa has a bye next week so they will let it all out here, and think that is enough vs an Iowa St. team that has to find a RB and a receiver that can stretch the field, and that looks to be absent right now. Make the play on Iowa.

Arkansas is just 6-18 in the last 2 years and for a once powerhouse football school these numbers have to change. The public may be sleeping on this team, and like we saw in Iowa St. last year when Brock Purdy was inserted as the starting QB, and the offense took off. Arkansas has an even better option and we have had a prelude to what to expect. Shockingly Ben Hicks was named the Arkansas starting QB ahead of Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel. Starkel as a freshman at A&M threw from 1800 yards with 60% completions at 8.6 tards per attempt. This guy is a big-time QB. Hicks started the season 21-45 at 46.7% and 5.4 yards an attempt. Starkel took over and went 21-29 at 72.4% 249 yards at 8.6 yards an attempt. There has been a tremendous upgrade to the Arkansas offense. Colorado St. allowed 52 points to Colorado in their opener, and many see this Arkansas team as a lot less than they really are. I'm betting that Starkel is in the process of transforming this team, with few aware. Make the play on Arkansas.

 I have been following Kansas St. social media sites all summer, and the players love Klieman, think he has put a lot of energy back into the program. The transfers Gilbert and Brown have at the very least stabilized the RB position which was bankrupt coming in. Heard nothing but praise for Thompson (QB), he is ready to take the next step up. WR's Schoen and Knowles can stretch a defense. The talent left behind is average, but the coaching and enthusiasm elevate it. Miss St. (QB ailing), no defensive pressure at all. Miss St. OL not as deep and Parker likely out, and Williams and Wilkerson (questionable). This looks like a 7 point game either way, actually, think KST can win if things go right. Make the play on Kansas St.

The Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide have dominated the NCAA Football scene for several years now. It certainly looks like that is about to occur again. There are some questions for this Clemson team. They have so many playmakers on offense it is scary. That isn't the question. The defense took a lot of key hits, losing All-Americans off the DL and 6 NFL departures in all. The entire middle of the line is gone, and would-be replacements Nyles Pinckney, and Jordan Williams both missed the spring with injuries. They have able-bodied replacements, but overall they will simply not be as good. Texas A&M has plenty of experience facing top-level competition. The Aggies got good again in 2010, and with Kellen Mond at QB, and plenty of offense themselves, they will move the ball here. Mond improved significantly year-over-year and is poised for another jump this season. Texas A&M has more than proved they can play with the big boys. They have faced a #1 ranked Alabama team 5 times and is 4-1 ATS losing by an average of just 10.1ppg. They also out-played Clemson last year in a 28-26 loss, failing on a 2 point conversion that would have forced overtime. The Aggies out-gained Clemson 501-413 had a 25-14 first down advantage, held Etienne to 44 yards, made them punt 8 times, while Mond vs a better defense passed for 430 yards 3 TDs and 0 INTs. The difference was a -2 in turnover margin, on 2 costly fumbles. The Aggies bring in a #4 ranked recruiting class of a pair of 5* and 14 four-star players. They are better than last year, but the record may not be. The schedule is the toughest in the country facing #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Georgia, #6 LSU, and #10 Auburn. That is 3 games on the road vs top 6 teams. The Aggies have proven to be able to stay with top-ranked teams, and there are enough holes in the Clemson defense that they can score enough here to get the money. Make the play on Texas A&M.

The Colorado Buffalos were obe at the pinnacle of the college football world, reigning supreme in the old Big-8/Big-12 along with Nebraska and Oklahoma. things have really changed. Colorado win 10 games in 2016, but in 11 seasons sandwiched around that, they have not had a winning season, and stand at 45-102 SU and 56-84-6 ATS. last year they started 5-0, but the roof collapsed as they finished 0-7. This year looks similar to all the seasons from above where they have averaged losing by 9ppg in 147 games. Nebraska looked very poor and uninterested last week, perhaps because they have had this game circled since last year's loss to Colorado when QB Martinez had his ankle twisted in a pile-up. You can be sure the focus will be different this year. The line here is shaded by the curious poor play by Nebraska last week, and I see a team that has motivational reasons to bring the "A" game to Colorado after the perhaps dirty injury to Adrian Martinez last year. Make the play on Nebraska.

The Syracuse Orange had a breakout season winning 10 games last year for the first time since 1992. They will be remembered for taking Clemson to the wire in a heartbreaking 27-23 loss. This is going to be a much different year. The 2018 team averaged 40ppg and they looked horrific vs Liberty managing just 24 points. There is another problem. Next week they will be hosting Clemson, and one-eye will be on that game. New Syracuse Tommy Devito looked really bad against Liberty completing just 17 of 35 passes and 176 yards. There was a lot of miscommunication on the field, and they won't be able to duplicate that against Maryland or they are going to lose. While the rushing numbers look good (over 200 yards) it was generated at a subpar 4 yards a carry. Maryland now has former Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson and he is an upgrade from a year ago. teaming with star running back Anthony Mcfarland, the Terps offense will be much better. I really believe this Syracuse team is highly over-rated off of last year, and the hype machine for Clemson is already getting attention, and personally, I think they will get destroyed. Maryland is a borderline Bowl team at best, but have enough to win at home here vs a team that has no offense. Make the play on Maryland.

This game is about situations and the one that applies here is on the total. A heavy chalk to a low total almost always goes over the total, and the reason is that 67% if the time the heavy chalk foes over the total by themselves! These games win 82.4% of the time and cover by 11.40 points. Right now just 1 nook has the total up, but there will be more as these FBS v FCS games often put out later lines than normal.

Play on the over in a game where the line is -30 or more and the total is 48 or less:

Expert Analysis: There will not be a lot of interest in this game as Rutgers rakes on U

Expert Analysis: Arizona St. was projected low a year ago and had a great season considering. They were the only school in the country that had a 1,500-yard rusher, a 3000-yard passer, and a 1000 yard receiver. Returning is RB Benjamin who went for over 1600 yards a year ago. The Sun Devil`s are built with tremendous speed and the offensive line is going to control this game with 5 senior starters. Arizona St. had a laughable defense 2 years ago, had the youngest defense in the FBS a year ago, and now are poised to be the most intimidating group in the P-12. Jayden Daniels will br the QB, and he has the running ability and speedy talented receivers. Kent Sy. was 2-10 a year ago and has made all of 3 Bowl appearances in 99 years, and 0 wins. The Golden Flashes have played 38 games vs the likes of the SEC, ACC, and B10 and are 0-38 (11-23-1 ATS), and losing by an average score of 7.8 to 41. (5-15 ATS from 20.5 to 36). The Sun Devils averaged 43.3ppg in non-conference home games since 2009, and are 27-1 SU and 17-8 ATS in game 1 if at home. Kent St. is not a good team, and the depth is lacking which will be a major issue here. A team tends to be in lesser game shape in game number 1 and in this case, the Golden Flashes will be taking on the desert heat where the 7 PM start time projects a temperature of 100 degrees, and still 93 at game`s end. Welcome to the desert. Make the play on Arizona St.

Expert Analysis: This is a very important game for a pair of coaches that have each elevated the school they now represent. Butch Davis has led FIU to consecutive Bowl games and 17 wins in his first 2 years. Willie Fritz has succeeded everywhere he has been and in his 3 tears at Tulane, his team has improved each season. Tulane had just 1 winning season in 15 years prior to last season`s 7 wins, which included wins vs S. Florida and Memphis. Looking back at 2018 Florida International was 8-4 in the regular season, but personally, I think this team was highly over-rated. The panthers 8 wins came at the expense of teams that combined to fo 29-58, and an additional win was vs Arkansas Pine Bluff. They barely out-gained the opponents on their schedule despite the relative weakness of opponents. They have another issue as they have to rebuild their offensive line, and Tulane has some disrupters upfront and returns 8 defenders from a team that recorded 46 sacks a year ago. The strength of the Panthers is defending the pass, and Tulane likes to grind it out averaging over 200 rushing yards a game a year ago. I really like Willie Fritz, and the Green Wave will be at home here, and they should get the money here. Make the play on Tulane.

Monday January 7th, 2019

The Washington Huskies finished a disappointing 10-3 on the season. They just could not score points despite having a seasoned QB as they averaged 26.5ppg. They were carried by their defense all season. Last year they have a much better offense, with a similar defense but lost in their Bowl when Penn St. scored 35, the most they gave up all season. Two years ago their 41ppg offense was held to 7 by Alabama. They were also beaten by Auburn this season, and this team has just struggled outside the conference vs the better teams. They are 1-6 in their last 7 vs the SEC, 1-6 in their last 7 vs the Big-12, and lost last year to Penn St. Bigger than any of that is my best Bowl situation that is 65-16 ATS is on the Buckeyes here. This is Urban Meyer's last game and his teams have been 55-27-1 ATS as long as he is not a favorite of -10 or more. (7-1 ATS in January). Make the play on Ohio St. 

The Kentucky defense was as good as ever this season, but they have been a one-way team all season. The Wildcats are great on defense, but the offense averaged just over 26 points a contest and in their last 5 SEC games they scored just 67 total points, or 13.4 a game. Overall in the 5 games, they managed 4.5 yards a play which is really bad. They were out-gained by 70 yards a game. The Penn St. offense scored almost 35 points a game, while their last 3 opponents combined to score a total of 20 points. Kentucky runs the ball 64% of the time, and Penn St. faced Wisconsin, Maryland, and Pitt which are 3 run-heavy offenses, and none of the 3 scored more than 10 points against them, as Penn St. forced 8 total fumbles. The defenses here are similar, but the Penn St. offense is much more explosive. Make the play on Penn St. 

The Miss St. season can be summed up rather quickly. They allowed 12ppg which is the best in the nation. The offense is another story. The top 6 defenses they played saw them score even less than that stingy defense allowed, 11.2ppg. When they played poor defenses they thrived and scored 47ppg. That is an amazing split, but unfortunately, Iowa is more like the 6 tough defenses that shut this team down. The Iowa defense is elite and allowed just 16 TDs prior to the 4th quarter all season. It is tough for a team averaging 11.2ppg vs elite defenses to cover a TD. There have only been 4 previous Bowl Games with a line of +7 or more and a total less than 45, and the dog won 2 outright and covered 3. A team entering its Bowl game that allowed their last 2 opponents less than 10 combined points us 1-15 ATS. Make the play on Iowa.

The ACC lacked quality at the top this season and NC State benefited from a 4 game out of conference schedule that did not include a P5 opponent and went 4-0 winning by 127 points. The SEC dominated the ACC going 7-0 ATS and included in that was 2 ATS losses by Clemson that gave up 500+ yards to A&M and 600+ to SC. Texas A&M is a lot better than their record as they lost to both Clemson and Alabama but scored 24.5ppg in the two vs the nations best defenses. Texas A&M beat Kentucky, SC, and LSU, so they beat some good teams. I think if NC State played the A&M schedule it would remain questionable if they would even be Bowl eligible. A team off 3 straight home games coming into its Bowl game. winning at least the last 2 are 12-1 ATS since 1998. Make the play on Texas A&M.

Both Michigan St. and Oregon had disappointing seasons. These programs have come to expect more. Oregon got news that QB Justin Herbert will return for his senior year. Hebert was projected as the first QB to be selected in the draft. Mario Cristobal will be taking over the Oregon program, and I think the coaching edge goes to Mark Dantonio as he has won and covered 5 straight Bowl games despite being an underdog in 4 of them! Oregon fits a Bowl situation that is 0-11 ATS as well as a statistical profile that is 42-82 ATS. make the play on Michigan St.

The Oklahoma Sooners have the best all-time offense in NCAAF. They average 578 yards a game along with 49.5 points. The Alabama Crimson Tide have their best offense ever and generate 528 yards and 48 points. When you look at Alabama because their defense was so strong, QB Tua Tagovialoa only played in the 4th quarter in one game, and still had 42 TD passes. The separation is the Alabama defense allowing 14.8ppg, vs the dreadful defense of Oklahoma that allowed 32.6ppg and was worse late in the season allowing over 40ppg in their last 5. It is possible that Alabama will be scoring on every possession, and the Tide defense is going to give up some points here, but will also get several stops. Alabama led 7 games this season by 14 points or more after the first quarter and had 20 point leads or better at the half in 9 games. There is no difference between the offenses, but a huge difference between the defenses. Oklahoma gave up 556 yards a game in their last 5. WR Marquise Brown is struggling with a foot injury and he is a key piece for the Oklahoma offense, and the secondary is banged up as well. Make the play on Alabama.

I think Notre Dame has been disrespected all season. Not being in a conference, a schedule questioned by many, and have been thought of as a team that doesn't really belong. That certainly will be a motivating factor and remember they did beat Michigan who ran off 10 straight wins after losing to the Irish, and that was before the offensive changes. Ian Book completed 70% of his passes with 19 TDs and 6 INTs after becoming the starter the last 9 games. Clemson saw similar results when Trevor Lawrence took over at QB. The key to this game is going to be the ability of the Notre Dame offensive line to give Book some shots downfield. That is the Clemson weakness, they were beat bad by SC over the top. The ACC was pretty weak at the top this year with Pittsburgh making it to the Championship game. When Clemson played up outside the conference their defense was burned for over 500 yards by A&M and over 600 yards by SC. The Irish have enough to hold their own here in a game that should be a lot closer than many think. Make the play on Notre Dame.

This game is going to be somewhat forgotten as it is nestled in with the 4 team playoff semi-finals, and some much more interesting Bowl games. Arkansas St. had a somewhat disappointing season. QB Justice Hansen did have a very good season with 27 TDs to just 6 INT's, but the Red Wolves 8 wins did not include any vs a team that made a Bowl game, and collectively the teams they beat went just 26-58. That doesn't include a win vs Se Missouri St. of the FCS. hard to trust the numbers as this team still has not beaten anyone of reasonable quality all season. The run defense really eroded this year after finishing 2017 allowing 136 rushing yards per game at 3.6 a carry to 201 a game at 5 yards a carry in 2018, despite a rather weak schedule. Nevada was 3-9 a year ago, but won 2 of their last 3 after a 1-8 start, so they have been 9-6 since. The offense really came together late in the season averaging over 520 yards per game in the last 3, and if not for blowing a 23-0 lead vs UNLV in the finale, they would be riding a 5 game winning streak here. Nevada should be excited to be here, are closer to home, and an 8th win would be the most for them since 2010. Nevada was a double-digit dog in 4 games, and a dog overall in 7 and still manged 7 wins. Make the play on Nevada.

Washington St. failed to finish business as they went into their finale against Washington with 1 loss and in the hunt for the 4 team playoff. It has to be demoralizing for a team that came so close to winning the Pac-12 and at least playing in the Rose Bowl. Mike Leach doesn't actually have much of a reputation in Bowl games where his team is just 2-7 ATS in his last 9, despite being the favorite in all but 1. Iowa St. finished 8-4 and has a chance to be only the 2nd team to reach 9 wins in the last 38 years at Iowa St. This team has lost just 1 game by more than 10 points in the last 2 years (14 v Texas), so basically they have been in every game they have played. This team took off when freshman QB Brock Purdy was inserted as the starter as they finished 7-1 with him directing the offense. He has been under the radar good. Just 2 QBs in the country averaged more yards per attempt than his 10.04 and that was Tagovialoa and Murray. Grier at W. Virginia was not as good, and the next best freshman was Trevor Lawrence of Clemson at 7.99. Needless to say, he is the best QB no one has heard of. Iowa St. will not be intimidated by the Cougars passing game after having faced Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and W, Virginia. The Iowa St. defense appeared to tire late in the season but will be ready here. Make the play on Iowa St.

The W. Virginia season could not have had a worse ending. They brought an 8-1 record into their last 2 games and suffered heartbreaking defeats in each. The losses came despite generating 97 points and 1,257 total yards. They will now be without the QB that generated the explosive offense as Will Grier won't play. Additionally, their best offensive lineman will skip the game as well. jack Allison will start at QB and he has attempted just 10 passes all season. Syracuse will be the motivated team here, as they have a shot at their first 10 win season since 2001. The Cuse fans sold out their ticket allotment almost immediately and will be well represented in Orlando. Syracuse's 3 losses came against unbeaten Clemson and Notre Dame, and against Putt who made it to the ACC Championship game. Syracuse averaged 40.8ppg and without Grier and their best offensive lineman, I don't see the Mountaineers keeping up here. A team that looked like they were going to a big Bowl, with 1 loss, and then lost their final 2 games like W. Virginia have really struggled in their Bowl game at 2-10-1 ATS since 1994. W. Virginia just 5-19 ATS in their last 24 Bowl games, and 0-12 ATS if they are not a dog of +3 or more. make the play on Syracuse.

Might be some rain early on Friday but it appears things should rapidly improve prior to kickoff here. this game is all about the QBs as Auburn signal caller Jarrett Stidham will be entering the NFL draft, but will play in the Bowl. I'm sure he is looking to brush up his resume vs a Purdue team that ranked in the bottom 10 this season in pass defense. Purdue has a very good QB of their own in David Blough who threw for 277+ yards in 9 of his last 10 games. he has a speedy target in freshman Rundale Moore who caught 103 balls for 12 TDs. Auburn faced some very strong defensive teams in LSU, Washington, Miss St., A&M, Georgia, and Alabama, where they averaged 22ppg, but vs everyone else 38.2ppg. The ball is going to be successful in the air here, make the play on the over.

Both these teams needed to win their finale to get here, as they each finished 6-6. Vanderbilt had built a lot of momentum late in the season covering their last 5 games at 5-0 ATS. Unfortunately all that momentum gets lost with the big layoff and often these streaking teams don't fare well in Bowl games. A team that comes into a Bowl game with an ATS streak of more than 3 games vs an opponent that is not on an ATS streak of more than 3 games is 52-81-2 ATS, including 10-27-1 ATS with a line from pock to -4.5. I also have another version of streaking teams that i 29-71 ATS. Baylor was 1-11 SU last year, so they have to be excited to be in any Bowl game. They also get this one in Texas and should have the crowd on their side making this a quasi-home game. Make the play on Baylor.

A disappointing season for both these teams as they collide in the Pinstripe Bowl. Wisconsin will go with back-up QB Jack Coan, while it looks like Miami QB N'Kosi Perry may be facing disciplinary issues. That would leave Malik Rozier at QB for the Canes. The offense has been problematic all season and each QB has struggled against good teams. This game will come down to The Wisconsin running game and heavy doses of Jonathon Taylor, and his 1,989 yards on the season at 7.1 yards an attempt vs a stout Miami run defense. Taylor had success vs the top 4 run defenses he saw this year in BYU, Iowa, Michigan, and Penn St. He carried 88 times for 516 yards at 5.9. he will be the best player on the field. One big factor is also the weather. This game is being played in NY City and temps are expected to be in the 30s. Miami us the only warm weather team to ever play in the Pinstripe Bowl, and perhaps an unmotivated team already, in cold weather may lose more of their mental preparation here. Wisconsin is certainly used to the cold, and it could be a big day for Taylor. Hard to trust a likely unmotivated Miami team in the cold. Make the play on Wisconsin.

It looks like both QB Anthony Russo and RB Ryquell Armstead will both be playing for Temple. The coaching match up goes solidly Duke's way as David Cutcliffe has a great Bowl resume at Ole Miss and Duke at 8-2 ATS and his team has scored 27 or more points in every one of them. Temple will be led by Ed Foley as an interim coach, the same role he had 2 seasons ago. Foley lost that game as a -10.5 favorite to another ACC team Wake Forest 34-26. Duke is coming off a woeful loss to Wake Forest in their season finale 59-7 and lost the game prior to that vs Clemson 35-6. A team entering their Bowl game after losing the previous 2 by -52 points or more are very motivated, and are 10-2 ATS if +3.5 or more, and 8-1 ATS if it is a December Bowl game. AAC teams with 7 to 10 wins are 6-19 SU and 6-19 ATS, including 1-8 ATS in their last 9. Make the play on Duke.

One of the lowest Bowl totals in quite some time, as California takes on TCU. The Bears have struggled in offense all season, and their last 5 games shows they scored 15,13,13,12, and 33. They scored 33 vs Colorado by opening the first quarter with 2 pick-6's, so in reality the offense scored 19. TCU is down to their 3rd string QB, and they have also struggled all season. The best units on the field will be both defenses which are among the best in the country. The total may be low, but not low enough. This is an era of high scoring so sometimes these low totals tend to push the bettor toward the over. The last 2 years in games played with a P5 conference favorite and a total of less than 41 the under is 13-1! The average score was 22.8 to 7.9. Only one game reached as high as 43 points and that game saw running TDs of 71,67, and 60 yards, so a certain outlier. Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers had to win a tough game at Wisconsin yo finish 6-6 and become Bowl eligible. They were handed the game on a silver platter by Wisconsin who fell behind 17-0, committed 4 turnovers, and allowed a 69-yard punt return. That marked the biggest weakness of this Minnesota team, their run defense. Wisconsin had success on the ground generating 170 yards on 31 carries but had to throw a lot to play catch up all game. Minnesota has issues, as 6 unannounced players are suspended for this game. Minnesota has faced 3 other top 30 rushing offenses and here is what happened:

#17 Maryland      37-315    42 points

#13 Illinois      35-430    55 points

#28 Nebraska      43-383    53 points

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Now they get not only the #1 rushing team in NCAA Football but one that is even more difficult to stop, running the triple option. Tech has run for 4,019 yards at 5.73 yards per carry and 45 TDs on the ground. The only 2 teams that contained their running game were Georgia, and Clemson, as they went for 229+ vs all others, and 372+ vs 6 opponents. Minnesota also loses LB Blake Cashman (leading tackler) and OT Donnell Greene sit out of this game to prepare for NFL draft. Paul Johnson is making this game his swan song so tech should easily be the motivated team here to send their coach out a winner. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

Buffalo at 10-3 on the season broke the previous school record for wins of 8 since joining the FBS. The Bulls, however, may still be feeling the pain for their MAC Championship game where they were up 29-10 near the end of the 3rd quarter vs an offensively challenged N. Illinois team and lost. Neil Brown has a chance to string together a 3rd straight 10 win season at Troy with a win. Bowl teams that play relatively close to home (under a 3-hour drive in this case), often have the huge crowd advantage as Buffalo is over 1000 miles away here. The MAC has a horrific Bowl record as they are 18-36-3 ATS since 2007, and just 1-11 SU in their last 12. Buffalo has whiffed in their 2 Bowl games as they lost by 18 and 25 points. This is the 1st ever Bowl game for Lance Leipold, while Neal Brown has won the last 2 years. Make the play on Troy.

The Houston Cougars were standing at 7-1 and a big Bowl game appeared to be within striking distance. It all came tumbling down when QB D'Eriq King went down with a season-ending injury. King was also the team's top runner. His replacement Clayton Tune is passing at just 44% completions, and 2 yards less per attempt than King, and is not a runner. Additionally, the Cougars lost 4 defensive linemen, including one of the best in the country Ed Oliver, who is skipping the Bowl game. Army has its best team in years at 10-2. The Army roster is always heavily stocked with Texas recruits(20+ this year), and playing in Texas in front of family and friends have always served this team well as they are 19-2 ATS lifetime in Texas. Make the play on Army.

Bowl teams that are .500 or less and playing a team over .500 and are a dog from +2 to +10.5 are 40-12 ATS in their Bowl Game. Meanwhile, a Bowl team that lost their Conference Championship game by 8 points or more and are in a December Bowl not a dog of more than 1 point are 1-16 ATS (applies against Memphis). Make the play on Wake Forest.

BYU could be without their top 3 running backs for this game. They may have to take to the air but against a bad W. Michigan secondary, even the poor BYU passing attack should be able to move the chains. Despite losing their starting QB the Broncos have been still good in the passing game. The tough task for a team that averages just 25ppg to a line that is double-digits is going to be rough for BYU. this is the first time a 6 win Bowl team facing a 7 win Bowl team has been favored by double digits and in fact they are 9-17 ATS to a line of -3 or more. A Bowl team that is posted as a favorite covering 3+ games in a row coming in with a line of -3 to dog or -10 or more is just 6-29 ATS. Make the play on W. Michigan.

A Bowl game where a team averages 40.25 points per game or more and the total is set at less than 64 with a line of less than or equal to +3 (which includes them as a PK or favorite). The under is 20-3 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

Conference-USA December Bowl favorites with a total from 50 to 63.5 and not favored by -8 or more are 10-0 to the under. Make the play on the under. 

Ohio U. and San Diego St. have had completely different years. Ohio U. started off 3-3 and finished 5-1, while SD St. started 6-1 and finished 1-4. The Aztecs finished the season on a 1-6 ATS run which is actually positive for a Bowl team. What they do best is stop the run allowing just 2.7 yards per attempt, and the running game is a huge part of the Bobcats offense as they have generated 261 yards a game on the ground. I don't think they will be able to move the ball on the ground in this one. The Aztecs are rarely beaten bad, and while they lost 4 of their last 5 it was by a combined 17 points. San Diego St. has an unusual profile having gone 0-9 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite, but 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a dog. They have won 7 of those 9 as a dog straight up. The MAC Conference is just 33-60 SU and 33-48-2 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on San Diego St.

A Bowl game where a team averages 40.25 points per game or more and the total is set at less than 64 with a line of less than or equal to +3 (which includes them as a PK or favorite). The under is 20-3 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

UAB didn't even have a football program as recently as 2 years ago. Since restoring the program the Blazers are 18-8. What a great job by Bill Clark. This year he won the C-USA Championship, and are on a mission to finish the job they didn't get done, as they lost their Bowl game. UAB has a shown to be almost impossible to score on vs horrible offenses, and N. Illinois is quite offensively challenged. take a look at what the UAB defense has done vs the teams on its schedule that average less than 25ppg. (N. Illinois is at 20.7):

Appalachian St. has had a great run under Scott Satterfield. Unfortunately, he has been hired by Louisville and won't be on the sidelines for this one. Many want to believe that the team with the interim head coach is a reason to play against a team bit since 2003 the interim head coach is 32-34-1 ATS in a Bowl game, so it is not a factor. Appalachian St. won 10 games this season, but have had very little in the way of resistance as they were double-digit favorites in 11 straight games, making Middle Tennessee the strongest opponent they have faced in 3 months. The Blue Raiders are a not so lofty 8-5 but consider the fact they lost 3 games to SEC teams in Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Kentucky. They suffered another loss when QB Brett Stockstill went down in the 1st quarter with an injury. The only other loss was to UAB by 2 points, a team they beat the week before 27-3, holding them to negative rushing yards. Stockstill is a 6th-year senior, and has had an oft-injured career, but is healthy again. He spent a lot of the early season battling injuries and had 0 games vs FBS competition throwing for 8+ yards per attempt. Once healthy he threw for 8+ yards an attempt in 5 of his last 6 including scoring 23 vs Kentucky. he has thrown for over 12,000 yards and a 100 TDs in his career. App. St. has a strong pass defense but has not been tested by a QB like Stockstill with a boatload of experience and healthy again. Middle Tennessee outside the SEC has lost with Stockstill out, and by 2 to a UAB team, they beat by 24. UAB did not give up points to many teams and either has Kentucky. Stockstill's last 3 games were vs those two teams and he went 81-107 for 916 yards at 8.56 yards an attempt, and 7 TDs. A healthy Stockstill makes a huge difference and not reflected in the line here. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

Georgia Southern finished just 2-10 a year ago and turned that into 9-3, the biggest turnaround of any team in a Bowl this year. The one big win came vs Appalachian St. a team that also runs the triple option, lost its quarterback early in the first quarter, and its top RB the week before. The 9-3 record is encrusted with variance as Georgia Southern benefited from 27 turnovers by opponents while setting an FBS record by committing only 5 of their own. Teams that benefit greatly from turnovers in the regular season often struggle in Bowls. despite the 22 extra possessions and a 9-3 record on the season, Georgia Southern was out-gained on the season by their opponents by 18 yards a game. Chris Creighton has done a remarkable job here, as he took over a program that had never won more than 6 games and led them to 7 wins in 2 of the last 3 years. E. Michigan has the added incentive to set the school record for wins at 8. his team is 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 in the role of a dog. Make the play on E. Michigan.

Utah St. has had a great season, and finished at 10-2. They went on a 10 game winning streak where they were quite dominant. The question mark for this team is they played on the weak side of the MWC, and their 10 wins came against a schedule of teams that combined to go 40-80. Seven of the teams they beat allowed 35.4 points a game or more. Eight of those teams also averaged 28.8 points per game or less. While they did play tough teams tough, they have a lot of nothing wins. North Texas is 9-3 and their losses are by a combined 13 points, and have wins vs SMU and Arkansas by an impressive combined points of 50. The Mean Green score 36.4ppg more than any team Utah St. has beaten all season, and they allow 21.8ppg, fewer than all but 2 teams the Aggies have beaten all season. QB mason Fine cut his INT`s from 15 a year ago to 5 this season, and the junior is just under 10,000 yards for his career. North Texas is the only team in the entire FBS that out-gained every team on its schedule. A lot will go against them as they have failed to cover 5 straight games, but teams in their Bowl game failing to cover in 5 straight or more have gone 19-10 ATS. When they are a dog of 6.5 or more, they are 7-1 ATS winning outright 6 times! Make the play on North Texas.

I have my best situation that I ever discovered that is active for this game. It is a ridiculous 368-185 to the UNDER, converting 66.7% of 553 bets. It has a Z-score of an off the charts 7.79 z-score, making it extremely predictable. When it has been a matchup of ACC teams it has been 47-14 to the UNDER at 77%. Make the play on the UNDER.

The Red River Rivalry 2.0 takes on even more meaning in this game as Oklahoma is fighting to make the 4 team playoff while Texas looks to win the B-12 Championship for the first time since 2009. Texas is getting better fast under Tom Herman, and a win in this game or their Bowl game will give the Horn's their first 10 win season since 2009. Since Sept. 16, 2009 Texas has been in all bit one game despite a turnover disadvantage in all but one. Here are the Texas losses over the period:

Since Sept. 16, 2017 TX has lost 8 games, aside from a 24-3 loss to TCU last year those losses:

MD      29-34    -5    -3 in turnovers

OKST  35-38    -3     EVEN     OKST FG as time expired

WVA    41-42   -1     -1            WVA score 0:16 left

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2017:

TXT    23-27    -4     -2         TXT score with 1:47 left

OKL    24-29   -5     +1         OKL  59 pass 6:59 left

USC    24-27   -3     -2          USC OT

OKST  10-13   -3    E            OKST OT

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This team despite  -7 in turnovers in these games has been right there in every game. Herman is 12-1 ATS as dog 9-4 SU, but if you go back to when he was OC at Iowa St. 23-1 ATS as dog! 

Oklahoma is the best all-time offense in NCAA Football history at this point, but what the offense has given the defense has for the most part taken away. The Sooners since the beginning of November have had trouble getting separation allowing 40+ points in all 4 games winning by an average of 6 points per game and allowing 47.2 a contest. That includes Kansas going over 500 yards and scoring 40 points. To put that in perspective, the Jayhawks have not scored as many as 35 points in a B-12 Conference game since Nov. 6, 2010! Texas has had Oklahoma's number and is 7-7 SU in the last 14 meetings, but 10-3-1 ATS. Oklahoma is also 1-6 ATS when they face Texas and have 2 more wins than Texas since 1989. Texas held a 45-24 lead in the first meeting with 9 minutes left, and imploded for a 48-45 loss. The Horn's had 3 turnovers in that game, and considering the Oklahoma defense had forced just 7 other turnovers the entire season, that was just pure bad luck. The last 5 meetings have all been decided by 7 points or less, and I don't see this one being any different. make the play on Texas.

The Big-12 Championship game is a rematch of the Sooners only defeat this season as Texas won a shootout early in the season 48-45. The Sooners have the best offense in terms of yard per play of any team in NCAA Football history. The problem is they have also allowed 40+ points in each of their last 4 games, including 40 to Kansas which hadn't scored more than 35 in over 8 years in a B-12 game. Oklahoma is 9-0-1 to the over this season facing P5 opponents with an average of an astounding 87.2ppg scored by both teams. (100.6ppg last 4). Texas has been in shootouts vs the best offenses in the B-12 all season. Texas games vs Oklahoma (93), Texas Tech (75), W. Va. (83), and Oklahoma St. (73), have averaged 81ppg. Saturday games (regular rest and routine), played between a pair of P5 opponents on a neutral field are 12-0 to the over when the total is 73 or higher. These games have beaten the lofty totals by +14.62 ppg. Bettors love the over, but usually, play under these big totals. Make the play on the over.

The Washington Huskies did a lot of disappointing this season. many had this team pegged as a playoff contender coming into the season, but they finished 9-3. There are some reasons, especially regarding the offense. RB Myles Garrett was a pre-season All-American. Garrett spent most of the season injured, missed 2 games, and has just gotten healthy and the numbers show it. Three of his top 4 rushing games were in the last 3 weeks, including a season-high 178 last week vs Washington St. TE Hunter Bryant was a pre-season All Pac-12, but he missed 9 games. He is healthy and averaging 24 yards a catch and like Garrett, his last game was his best. Don't underestimate the loss of LT Troy Adams as well, another pre-season All-American that missed the first 10 games, but is healthy again. Utah lost QB Tyler Huntley for the season and freshman Jason Shelley has taken over. Shelley has put up similar numbers to Huntley, but this is now a freshman in a Championship game vs the best defense he has seen all year, and that could change. RB Zack Moss has also been lost for the season. Washington stopped the Utah offense cold earlier in the season in a 21-7 win, and have all their pieces together now on offense, and are much better than they were then, while Utah has lost a lot from that game offensively. Washington was -4.5 at Utah and now just -5.5 on a neutral field, despite key offensive players lost by Utah, and 3 huge offensive players added and healthy for Washington? Make the play on Washington.

Boise St. has been very good for so long it seems that they never lose. They have been so good at home it seems like they never lose on their Smurf Turf. It is mostly true. The Broncos at home from 1999-2010 were 48-23-1 ATS but they have since been 16-32-1 ATS so they have obviously been over-priced. They are 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite of less than -17. The weakness on this team plays into the Utah St. strength which is the passing game, and that will be the difference in this one. Make the play on Utah St.

The Georgia Bulldogs have a date with Alabama in the SEC Championship game. If you are worried about a letdown, they were in the exact same situation last year with a date vs Auburn, and they beat Georgia Tech on the road 38-7. It takes a very good defense as well as one that knows how to defend the Tech's triple-option attack that runs the ball 90% of the time. Georgia faces this team every year, so I looked back to 2010, and in the 2 games played in the season that Georgia had an elite defense last year (16.9ppg allowed), and in 2015 (16.9ppg allowed), they stopped the triple option cold. This year Georgia is allowing 16.8ppg. The two years when Georgia had a great defense Tech scored 7 points each season. Many will point to the fact that Tech averages 36.9ppg but in 2014 they averaged 37.9ppg and scored 7 vs the Bull Dogs elite defense. Georgia is 12-0 SU at home in their last 12 home games winning on average by 40.8 to 12.2. Only 1 opponent would have covered this line, a 14 point win. Make the play on Georgia.

One of the biggest rivalries in college football has a lot at stake. Michigan and Ohio St. are both 10-1 entering this contest. Michigan brings its best team in years to the Horseshoe and the Wolverines are the best defense in this game as well as the best offense because they have the same numbers as Ohio St. from the line of scrimmage vs teams that average out to be better defensively. Defense is no contest. Ohio St. is below average and Michigan is ultra elite, the best in the country. Ohio St. is 28-1 SU in their last 29 home conference games, but will take the field as a home dog for the first time since 2011. This is the 13th time since 1982 they have been a home dog, 8 of those vs Michigan. The 17 point per game scoring margin by Ohio St. is their smallest in the Urban Meyer era. They have had scares vs TCU, Penn St., Nebraska, and Maryland, and lost to Purdue. This is not the caliber of Ohio St. team we have seen in recent years. Michigan last won here in 2000, but they were not supposed to win coming into the game as an average 9.1 under dog. This year is different, make the play on Michigan.

The Washington Huskies appeared to have everything in lace to make a run at the playoffs but they just don't seem to add up to the sum of their parts. These teams appear to be about even but there is something about the confidence and grit of Washington St. They have the winning intangibles. The Cougars just seem to get it done week after week while Washington doesn't seem to be connected and have lost 3 games. I'm riding this one on a situation that has been one of my best at 70-25 ATS that applied to the Cougars here. Make the play on Washington St.

This was supposed to be the big showdown in the Big-12, but with the W. Virginia loss last week some of that luster is gone, as West Virginia no longer has a shot to make the 4 team playoff. The Oklahoma balanced offense is the best by numbers I have ever seen. The Sooners generate 8.8 yards per play to opponents that allow 5.8. W. Virginia has pretty much an average defense, so Oklahoma is going to score big here. While Morgantown is a tough place to win, Oklahoma has done so all 3 times since W. Virginia became a member of the Big-12. The Sooners have averaged 54ppg here. W.Virginia has a strong offense and against a pretty average Oklahoma defense, they should do some scoring here, but keeping up may be a big problem. Oklahoma overall has won and covered 4 straight vs W, Virginia. Tough to try and match this Oklahoma team, they just have so much speed and so many weapons. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Until last season E. Michigan had not had consecutive seasons with at least 5 wins in each. They have done one better as they have 6 wins already this season and are Bowl eligible. Coach Chris Creighton has done a great job here winning in a place that never won before. E. Michigan is an improved team and has won 4 straight games in the conference. Kent St. is just 2-9 on the season. This program had a breakout season in 2012 winning 11 games but in the 6 years since they have just 16 wins. E. Michigan allowed just 7 points to each of their last  opponents. It sets them up in a situation that plays on a team that allowed 14 or less in 2 straight games vs an opponent giving up 37 or more in its last game. That is 60-20 ATS. Make the play on E. Michigan.  

The Ole Miss Rebels are 5-6 but won't be going to a Bowl game because of NCAA sanctions. They will face their Egg Bowl in-state rival Miss St. Ole Miss is a big offensive team but has been shutdown by the big defenses they have faced. They average 36.7ppg but against Alabama, LSU, and Auburn they scored 13ppg. That will be problematic vs a Miss St. team allowing just 12.8ppg and held Alabama to 24. They held the Tide to 304 yards of total offense. It has been a tale of 2 cities for the Miss St. offense. They have faced 5 great defensive teams in KY,FL,AUB,LSU, and ALA and averaged 7.8ppg, but against poor defenses un SF, LA Lad, LA Tech,Arkansas they averaged 54ppg. Ole Miss has a brutal defense. I think it is clear, Miss St. stops potent offenses, and Ole Miss can't score vs a potent defense. While Miss St. crushes bad defenses. Make the play on Miss St.

The Utah St. Aggies joined the FBS back in 1990. They struggled to be competitive and until 2012 the team never won more than 7 games. This program has elevated its level of play since then and is 1 win away from their 3rd season of 10 or more wins in the last 7 years. The Aggies are 9-1 with the only loss coming at the hands of Michigan St. in their opener a game that was tied with 2 minutes remaining. Since that game, the Aggies have rattled off 9 straight wins, by an average margin of 53.6-20.1. They have been better lately averaging 9.1 yards per play in their last 3 as QB Jordan Love continues to improve. Love has thrown for 2,676 yards 24 TDs and just 4 INT`s on the season. The offense can run the ball as well as Thompson and Bright have carried the ball 215 times for 1,530 yards at 7.1 yards a carry. The defense and special teams have been terrific, as they have combined to average 6.4ppg by themselves. Colorado St. is falling apart, and with QB Collin Hill (recovering from an ACL tear), is back at QB replacing Washinton transferJ.K. Carta-Samuels. Samuels wasn`t great but reasonably effective while Collins is trying to work his way back after surgery and the numbers are worse than Samuels as he has completed a lesser percentage 3 TD`s to 4 INT`s, and his yards per attempt is very poor. Coach Bobo said Collins is now #1 on the depth chart. A home team that has allowed225 rushing yards to at least their last 2 opponents, facing a team that generated 225 rushing yards in at least their last 2 games os 4-28-1 ATS. I also have situations of 7-38 ATS and 8-34 ATS against Colorado St. UtahSt. applies to a 96-47 ATS situation as well. Better than .500 road favorites that have accrued an ATS margin of 50 or more points in their last 7 games, and facing a sub-.500 team are 56-30 ATS in the last 86 occurrences. Make the play on Utah St.

The Northwestern Wildcats for the first time ever clinched the Big-10 Western Conference Title and will play in the Championship game. They are likely to be flat and have nothing to play for in this game. Minnesota, on the other hand, is 5-5 and needs a win in one of its last 2 games to become Bowl eligible. Their finale is on the road, so this is a huge spot. The Golden Gophers are the youngest team in the nation with over half its member's freshman so this would be quite an accomplishment. Minnesota fired its defensive coordinator prior to last week and they went out under new direction and held Purdue to 233 total yards and 10 points. The defense has been a liability all season but appears to take on new life with a new DC. The Minnesota offense that generated 25.5ppg with Zack Annexstad at QB, has come to life after he was replaced by Tanner Morgan. Morgan is 54-91 throwing for 10.4 yards per attempt, with 6 TDs and just 4 INT's. Ammexstad was throwing for 6.8 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and 7 INTs. The offense is now scoring 34.5ppg with Morgan under center. The Minnesota offense has generated 415 yards or more in 4 straight games, considerably better than before and now with a defense that appears to be put in a position to succeed, they are very much under the radar. Northwestern has had to fight through a lot of tough games and this is a great spot to see them in a "breather alert" situation. Make the play on Minnesota.

Middle Tennessee QB Brent Stockstill (coaches son), is a 6th year senior and has passed for 11,238 yards, 98 TDs to 30 INTs. he has a ton of experience and has seen and endured a lot. M. Tennessee St. is 7-3 on the season, but facing an SEC team that is 7-3 is completely different. Since the start of last season MTSU has faced Vanderbilt twice, and Georgia. The numbers tell the story. MTSU has generated 810 total yards on 197 plays at 4.11 yards per play. Stockstill has thrown for 4.89 yards per attempt. Needless to say, those numbers would rank at or near the bottom of the entire NCAA FBS. meanwhile, they were out-scored 112-20, and most of the points came late when they were blown out. Kentucky has a defense that is as good as any MTSU has ever faced, and after 2 losses where they played poorly, they will bring the heat in this one. SEC teams that allow less than 17ppg and facing a C-USA opponent allow 11.7ppg. If that opponent allows 28 or more points per game, the final score has averaged 41.3-10.4. I smell a major blowout here. Make the play on Kentucky.

The Nevada Wolf Pack enters there game vs 3-6 Colorado St. at 5-4 seeking Bowl Eligibility. The last 20 home favorites seeking bowl eligibility vs a team with 4 wins or less is 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS. Nevada has played a much tougher schedule, bit the defense has been vastly improved. They allowed 46.3ppg in their first 3 but 23.6ppg since. Colorado St. Has allowed opponents to score more than their season average in 8 of 9 games, and in 6 of those games, the opponent out-scored their season average by +11.1ppg or more. That does not bode well here on the road. Colorado St. has suffered a cluster of injuries on their offensive line. The Nevada air raid offense hasn't been special bit the CSU pass defense is brutal, and no player on the roster has more than 2.5 sacks. Special teams has been a disaster as well for CSU allowing 4 TDs. ESPN’s advanced metrics rank the Rams’ offense 103rd out of 130 FBS teams, their defense 119th and their special teams 129th. That adds up to an overall rank of 123, which leaves just seven worse teams in the nation. Make the play on Nevada.

This is becoming like a broken record. Iowa St. has played the toughest schedule in the country. They are very much under the radar, because they are just 5-3. A lot has changed in the last 4 games. QB Zeb Noland has left the team, as he sees the light. Freshman Brock Purdy is a high level QB, and has infused a mediocre offense into a strong one. Behind Noland Iowa St. was generating 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Since Purdy took over that has jumped to an elite 11.1, with 11 TD's to just 2 INT's. The running game that is averaging 3.6 yards an attempt has thrived as well, and has jumped to 4.4, and David Montgomery has 712 yards at 4.5 yards a carry. WR Hakeem Butler at 6'6" 225 has become elite with a competent QB to get him the ball. Butler now has 33 grabs for 791 yards and 8 TD's. He has 17 for 480 with Purdy at QB for 28.2 yards per catch. Uowa St. started football in 1892 and has never won 10 games, and this team is on a mission to get to the B-12 Championship game and win it. The Iowa St. defense is elite allowing 4.7 yards per play, and Baylor has struggled to stop good offenses, and struggled to score against good defenses, and in this game they will face both. Iowa St. offense has season numbers of 3.6 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per attempt, but behind Purdy it is 4.4 a carry and 10.9 per pass attempt. This team plays hard on every down, and finally has the depth in their defensive front to play strong for 4 quarters. Baylor fits a situation that is 15-62 ATS here, so technical support is big for ISU as well. Make the play on Iowa St.

The Missouri Tigers at 5-4 are under the radar, and look to secure Bowl eligibility at home vs Vanderbilt. A lot of bettors will look to the bright spot on the Vanderbilt season a 22-17 loss at Notre Dame. This was before Ian Book took over the Irish offense, because Wimbish was a liability in the passing game. The Missouri offense is balanced and is directed by a future NFL QB in Drew Lock. Lock has destroyed average defenses all season, as Missouri averaged just 17.7ppg vs Georgia, Alabama, and Kentucky, but 45ppg vs everyone else. Lock is even better as Emmanual Hall is healthy once again, as he averages 23 yards per catch and stretches the field and opens things up for others. Missouri can also run the ball, and has an above average defense. The Vandy defense grades out above average, however against very good offenses in SC, Georgia, and Florida they gave up 5.6 yards per rush, and 10 yards per pass attempt, way below average. There is some hidden value here. Make the play on Missouri.

It has been a tough year for 4-5 Wake Forest, a team that started the season 2-0, but their only wins since have come against a couple really bad teams in Rice and Louisville. The 5 losses have come by a total of 134 points. One of the reasons has been the injury bug. Wake Forest has lost 12 scholarship players for the season, and a total of 38 scholarship players have missed at least 1 game. The most recent injury will be the costliest as QB Sam Hartman has been lost for the season. Hartman is a freshman, and while his numbers aren't great they were more than adequate as he was growing into the position. The offense would normally turn to Kendall Hinton, but he us battling a pair of injuries himself, and may not even play, as they have used him on special teams and wide receiver. That likely leaves Jamie Newman who has completed just 46.5% of his 15 passes on the season with an INT and just 5 yards per attempt. Wake will likely turn to the running game but NC State is elite against the run allowing 3.1 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams that averages 4.5. The Wake secondary is below average and allows 64% completions and NC State QB Ryan Finley leads an elite passing attack generating close to 9 yards an attempt. Wake in their 5 losses have allowed:

BC       41

ND       56

CLEM     63

FLST     38

LOU      35

SYR      41

A new inexperienced QB, and an average running game vs an elite run defense, as well as a mediocre pass defense, against an elite passing attack has a strong odor of blowout on it. make the play on NC State.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in control of their own destiny, but that hasn't meant much over the last 4 years. Notre Dame has entered November ranked in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, and in the 4 years they have failed to finish in the top 10 in any of them. Notre Dame has perhaps the biggest fan base in the country and when they reach a lofty status the offs makers push the lines. The Irish are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 November games. Northwestern has won the last 2 meetings despite being a dog of -17 and -28. This stat will surprise most that read this. Northwestern has more wins over the last 3 years coming into this season than Notre Dame. Northwestern was a team that once upon a time had 4 winning seasons in 25 years. The Wildcats own wins over Michigan St. twice, Iowa, and Wisconsin since the start of last season, and lost to Michigan by just 3. Getting 10 points when you allow 23.6 is huge. Vandy, Pittsburgh, and Ball St. would have covered this number vs Notre Dame (3 ND wins). Northwestern has a way to get up for these games. Make the play on Northwestern.

Florida lost for the 2nd time this season last week. They played Georgia on a neutral field and lost 36-17. That certainly looks pretty bad, but it was very misleading. Florida actually led 14-13 in the 3rd quarter but 3 turnovers took them out of the game. All of Georgia's TD's came on 3rd down. Missouri is just not the same team as they were a year ago, especially offensively. Last week they were forced into 9 straight 3 and outs vs Kentucky. WR Emanuel Hall has been out most of the year, and he has been the only downfield threat for Missouri. Drew Locke has seen his passing yards per attempt drop way off. Part of that reason is the change to Derek Dooley who is now the Missouri offensive coordinator. Dooley personally flushed the Tennessee program down the toilet and this is his first ever stint at OC. Here are Lock's numbers vs good defenses:

The Kansas Jayhawks broke a 14 game conference losing streak against sputtering TCU. The results were very misleading as TCU out-gained Kansas 504-307. Kansas also won the turnover battle finishing at +2, and TCU saw a drive stall at the Kansas 1 yard line, as well as fumbling at the Kansas 7. Kansas was completely outplayed but got all the breaks and still ended up just a 1 point winner at home. Iowa St. is a completely different team with a healthy Montgomery at RB and with freshman QB Brock Purdy. The Cyclones passing game behind Zeb Noland was generating just 6.6 yards per attempt and since Brock Purdy took over he has passed for 11.0 yards an attempt.  Additionally, the Iowa St. defense us one of the best in the land allowing just 4.9 yards per play and the Cyclones have played the toughest schedule in the country. This is easily a top #10 team now, but at 4-3 they are supplying some great hidden value. Make the play on Iowa St. 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are always a dangerous team. They head to Iowa St. with a 5-2 record on the season. It will come down to a pair of true freshman QB's with Tech's Alan Bowman against the Cyclones Brock Purdy. Bowman has already thrown for 2,088 yards on the season with 14 TDs and 4 INTs. Purdy has played just 2 games but has passed at 11.9 yards per attempt and has a dead Cyclone offense that averaged 17.5ppg prior to hum playing to one that is averaging 37ppg with him. he is a duel threat contributing 122 yards on the ground on 31 carries. The Texas Tech defense is better than it has been but not nearly on the level with Iowa St. The Cyclones rank among the best stop units in the country, and allow just 4.9 yards a play to teams that average 6.4. RB Montgomery is healthy again and has benefited from Purdy at QB. Overall Iowa St. is now the best 3-3 team in the country and are on an extra week of rest. Iowa St. has held Tech to 23 points total the last 2 years and just 321 yards a game, while generating over 500 yards a game themselves. Make the play on Iowa St. 

The NCAAF playoffs look a bit clearer right now after 4 top teams bit the bullet last week. Things have a way of changing quickly however as we saw last week. Ohio St. has moved up to the #2 ranked team in the country, and this week they will head to W. Lafayette, Ind. to take on Purdue. Last year Purdue coach Brian Brohm too over a dead Purdue program that had 10 wins the previous 4 years, and immediately got them into a Bowl game against Arizona that they won. Brohm is an offensive genius and his teams have averaged 39.2ppg in his coaching career. he had returning QB Elijah Sindelar returning, and was hopeful things could get turned up a notch, but Sindelar struggled in 2 losses to start the season, where they averaged just 23ppg. David Blough who injured his leg last November and the offense took off. Blough has thrown 10 TD passes to 2 INT's, at 9.8 yards per attempt in his starts and the Boilermaker offense is averaging 38ppg, and is now a top 10 offense. Ohio St. is 7-0, and the line is over-compensating for their successful coach, and #2 ranking. The Buckeyes to this point of the season are not on the level defensively as all other Urban Meyer Ohio St. teams as they have been basically average. The running game is not as potent, but where they shine is in the air with Haskins at QB, but Purdue has been just as good with Blough. These teams are a lot closer than they look with Blough now at QB for Purdue, which displays hidden value. Urban Meyer coached teams are hard to bet against as they are 122-86-4 ATS. There is a weakness however as they are 5-18 ATS as a conference road favorite from -11.5 to -23, failing to cover by -6.28 points per game. Purdue is also in a momentum situation that is 100-45 ATS, one of my most predictive situations. Make the play on Purdue. 

Scott Satterfield may be a name not readily recognized by most. he took over the Appalachian St. program the year before they joined the FBS and has quickly gotten traction having gone 34-10 in the last 3+ years. The Mountaineers are an elite team on any level, and their 4-1 record includes their opening game overtime loss at Penn St. Since that game they are 4-0 having out-scored those 4 opponents by 33ppg. A backdoor cover is not likely here as this is the 7th rated defense in the country, and they have not been scored upon in the 2nd half in those 4 wins. Offensively, this team is completely balanced and have the 11th ranked offense in the FBS. Lafayette has a good offense but against top defenses, they have really struggled. Last year the Mountaineers won 63-14. Special teams provide for another huge edge for App. St. as they have a kick return for a TD and a pair of punt returns for 62 and 59 yards, while they average 43.7 yards per punt. Mountaineers run out of the triple option at 6.49 yards per carry and have allowed just 6 sacks. UL Lafayette has a very poor defense and App St. should put up over 50 ere, and their defense allows just 288 yards a contest and 30.9% on 3rd down. They will have the advantage on every play on the field on both sides of the ball as well as special teams and their depth running the ball will keep points coming in the 4th quarter. A big number to take down for sure, but they are capable of easily beating it. Lafayette has averaged just 9.2ppg in the 4 meetings. Make the play on Appalachian St. 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and the Arkansas Razorbacks both enter this contest with just a single win. There are not many areas that either team shines in but what edges there is belong to Arkansas. Tulsa has been very strong against the pass and is very long and experienced. They have 5 DB's that average 6'2". Tulsa plays out of a 3-3-5 defense and that has made them vulnerable to the running game. Arkansas is very good at running the ball, and they will have success here. Arkansas does not pass well so the Tulsa strength is not as much of a factor here. Offensively, Tulsa is a running team and passes poorly. Seth Boomer completes an ugly 36.5% of his passes, and the weak part of the Arkansas defense is against the pass, and the Tulsa passing attack is just not strong enough to exploit it. Tulsa has run 310 times and attempted just 170 passes so there is little doubt what they will try to do here. Arkansas is above average vs the run so the Hogs have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Arkansas Coach Chad Morris made his entry in the FBS as OC of Tulsa so you know he wants this one badly. Arkansas is 35-0 SU at home in out-of-conference games vs a team that is not unbeaten and is 15-0 SU here since 1980 vs Tulsa. Both are coming off games where they blew 4th quarter leads, and Tulsa lost at home to S. Florida by a single point with a FG with; 22 seconds remaining. A team that is off a 1 point home dog loss and is now a road dog of more than 3.5 points, has a winning percentage of less than.333 and not facing a team greater than.750 is 3-28 ATS. Make the play on Arkansas.

The W. Virginia Mountaineers come rolling into Iowa St. unblemished at 5-0, and a #6 ranking. They have yet to be tested, but do have a gauntlet of games ahead. Remaining are games at Texas and Oklahoma St., as well as home dates with TCU and Oklahoma. All in consecutive weeks. This one may look like a tune-up, but Iowa St. is a lot better than their 2-3 record which includes losses to Iowa, Oklahoma, and TCU, and a big road win at Oklahoma St. Matt Campbell came over from Toledo where he was 35-15, and has built the Iowa St. program quickly. The Cyclones won 8 games a year ago for the first time since 2000, and beat Oklahoma on the road, TCU at home, and Memphis on their Bowl game. The Cyclones are 2-3 but have played a schedule that includes Iowa, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. They beat Oklahoma Sy. on the road. Iows St. has not lost to anyone the last 2 years by more than 10 points. They beat Oklahoma a year ago on the road, and TCU at home, a very dangerous and under the radar team. While the schedule thus far has been against very tough opponents, the Cyclones have held 3 opponents to season low yards, and the other 2 to season 2nd lowest yards. Last week, due to injuries freshman QB Brock Purdy was electric. He went 18-23 good for 4 TD's and 318 yards at an amazing 13.8 yards an attempt. he also ran 19 times for 84 yards, on 19 carries and a TD. W. Virginia QB Will Grier is special, and will likely be playing on Sunday next year. W. Virginia however remains unchallenged, as they have played a much below average schedule. Iowa St. may be 2-3, but they are much better than the record, and with Purdy being named QB, the offense has been upgraded significantly. Make the play on Iowa St.

Las Cruces, N.Mexico was a happy place last season, as N. Mexico St. ended a Bowl drought that began back in 1960. Lots of optimism for this season went south quickly when the Aggies opened the season at 0-4. Coach Doug Martin returned 9 offensive players, but needed a QB and went with junior Matt Romero. Romero was pretty awful completing just 55% at 4.6 yards per attempt. He had 3 TD`s and 6 INT`s. Martin decided it was time for a change, and inserted freshman Josh Adkins, and the offense has exploded. Adkins is completing 61.3% at 7.9 yards an attempt, with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. He is not a great runner, but netter than Romero who could not run at all. It has brought life back to the running game as well as Christian Gibson after gaining 67 yards in 3 games with Romero at QB, has gained 230 yards on 23 carries since Adkins took over, 10ypc. The Aggie offense has gone from 10ppg to 38ppg in their last 2. It also helps a rather poor defense to get some rest and not on the field most of the game. Lots of hidden value here. Lafayette is a horrible defensive team, and the Aggies now have something to exploit that with. Aggies should be in this one off two inspiring wins all the way, and could surprise. Make the play on N. Mexico St.

The Chris Ash watch is on at Rutgers. He opened his weekly press conference defending his team, and spoke of a bright future...ut oh. His Rutgers team is brutally bad, especially on the road, where they have lost their last 5 games by a combined score of 218-37, and he is 1-11 SU on the road, out-scored by 4 TD's a contest. Maryland will do what they do best, pound the rock with Anthony McFarland (36-325 9.0), Ty Johnson (45-303  6.7), and Tayon Fleet Davis (41-211 5.1). Maryland's last opponent with a horrific run defense, Nowling Green, led to 444 rushing yards, and Rutgers has allowed 200+ on the ground in every game. The Scarlet Knights QB's have thrown 3 TD passes to 12 INT's, and complete just over 50%, and they don't run the ball well at all. They have averaged 12.8ppg in their 5 contests vs P5 teams, and they are on their 9th offensive coordinator in 9 years. Maryland averages 5.8 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.4, so expect big rushing yards here. Maryland has out-scored teams 66-22 in the 4th quarter, because they can continue to run and score, while Rutgers has been out-scored in the 4th by more than double, so a back door cover is not likely here. Maryland has produced 13 double-digit scoring quarters in their 5 games, Rutgers just 1. (10 points, barely got there). I expect a colossal blowout here, make the play on Maryland.

The Kentucky Wildcats are off to their best start in years at 5-0, and another win will give them their best start since 1950. The Cats have been big on both sides of the ball. Texas AM is not an easy place to play, and the Aggies may be 3-2, but the 2 losses were vs Clemson and Alabama. Those two games may offer a hint of what to expect here. AM lost to Clemson by just 2 points and gashed a powerhouse defense for over 500 yards. It was just the 6th time in regular season games that Clemson gave up 500 yards since the start of the 2012 season. The Aggies also hung up just shy of 400 yards at Alabama, and scored 23 points. Only 4 teams have come to Alabama and scored more than 23 points since November 11, 2007, covering 74 home games. The Kentucky defense is very good, but not as good as those 2 defenses, and if Mond and Co. could generate that type of yardage and points vs Clemson and Alabama they are sure capable of doing damage against Kentucky. The biggest edge may be the AM run defense which allows just 3.1 yards a carry, should be able to slow down Snell enough to force Kentucky into the air. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson has just 2 TDs and 5 INTs on the season, so if Texas AM can control the Wildcats ground game, they are going to be in good position to get a big win. This is the 3rd team AM has played against a team that is now 5-0, that experience, and offensive success will propel them at home. Make the play on Texas A%M.

The first leg of the Commander and Chief Trophy will see Navy heading to the Air Force Academy. There is no secret what to expect here, both teams run out of the triple option, and Navy has gone pretty much exclusively to the run, completing just 17 passes on the season. The one thing about the option is it is difficult to prepare for as most teams do not see it but once a season, but since both run their offense out of the option, they practice against it every day. That has led to a lot of lower scoring games than expected when Air Force, Army, and Navy get together. The last 48 times a game has been between 2 of these 3 schools the under is 35-13. This year has elements to conclude that to be the case in this one. Navy QB, Malcolm Perry is coming off a concussion, and Air Force QB Isaiah Sanders has a concussion and is questionable. Navy back up Zack Abby is also questionable, as he is used in the red-zone where he has 6 TD`s. Additionally, when Coach Niumatalolo is off a bye, his team has been 15-2 to the under, on the road. Navy is now 27-12 to the under vs a team that averages less than 150 yards a game, and 35-17 to the under vs a team that averages over 200 yards on the ground. Air Force is averaging 3.77 yards per carry on the season, their lowest mark in years. Make the play on the under.

The Illinois Ilini have not won a conference game in their last 13 tries, as they are 0-13. Ironically, they take on Rutgers, who is the last team they beat 24-7, also on the road. Rutgers has had no picnic either as they are 1-12 SU in their last 13 conference home games. The story line here is Illinois QB AG Bush has been upgraded to probable. Bush has played in just 1+ games as he injured a hamstring, and has been out since. Illinois is coming off a bye, which has helped this team with injuries, but also allows a QB to return that has generated 7.4 yards an attempt, and has rushed for 142 yards on just 26 carries, at 5.9 yards a tote. His replacement, M.J. Rivers threw for just 5.8 yards an attempt, and rushed for just 48 yards on 30 carries for 1.6 yards per carry. I see some hidden line value here, as the upgrade at QB helps both the running and the passing game. Rutgers has been brutal against the run all season. and are the worst passing team in the FBS generating 50% completions at 4.6 yards per attempt. Illinois is solidly the better team, should see improvement to the offense, against a very poor team all around. Make the play on Illinois.

Penn St. will host Ohio St. in the biggest game of the season so far. Both squads come in with a 4-0 record on the season, and rank 1 & 2 in points per game. Ohio St. QB Dwayne Haskins has certainly upgraded the Ohio St. offense, and the Buckeye aerial attack is striking for 10.2 yards an attempt vs opponents surrendering 7.5. There is little argument that the Buckeye offense is one of the best in the nation, perhaps 2nd only to Alabama. Penn St. and QB Trace McSorley are not quite up to those numbers in the passing game, but still potent at 8.6 yards an attempt. The key on offense for Penn St., is how well can they run the ball? They have been about 2 yards a play better in this regard, than their opposing defenses, and while Ohio St. has been above average vs the run, their schedule of opponents net just 4.4 yards a tote, while Penn St. is generating 6.4. While Ohio St. has some edge on offense, the Nittany Lions have an equal edge at the least, against an Ohio St. team that has played 2 good offenses in Oregon St., and TCU and were burned for big plays of 49, 78,80, and 93 yards. They certainly can't afford that here. Secondly, the Buckeyes only road game at TCU, resulted in a 40-28 win, but the real story was, Ohio St. scored 2 defensive TDs, had a +3 margin in turnovers, and were slightly out-gained per play by TCU. McSorley is 16-0 SU at home in his career, and 26-5 SU overall. The 5 losses have seen 4 decided by 3,3,3, and 1 point. Penn St. is 7-0 SU and ATS at home if not a favorite of 20 or more, and 6-0-1 ATS, and McSorley has never lost ATS home or away in competitively expected games lined from -7 to +7. Home dogs that have scored 38 or more points, in 2 straight wins are 98-44 ATS. Make the play on Penn St.

The Florida Atlantic Owls had a breakout season a year ago, but don't have the same level of all around talent that they did a year ago. Their biggest weakness is in their secondary where they have been carved up for a woeful 10.1 yards per attempt, arguably the worst in the country. Enter a QB that many are unaware of, in Middle Tennessee signal caller Brett Stockstill (coaches son), and trouble is looming. Stockstill is a 6th year serior, that is approaching 10,000 yards for his career, and could get there in this game. He also has 84 TDs to just 26 INT's while completing 68% on the season. He will own the biggest advantage in the field in this one. Middle Tennessee has averaged 32.5ppg in his 4 years directing the offense, and just shy of 40ppg at home. Hos one home start against FAU produced 77 points. MTSU is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following a 21 or more point loss in their last game, and I have a 64-26 ATS situation on them as well. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are just 1-3 on the season, and I believe this team is going to take some frustrations out on a very bad Bowling Green team, that matches up horribly against the Tech's triple option. Bowling Green has surrendered over 1300 yards on the ground through 4 games, including 558 yards on just 61 carries vs Miami,O. and E. Kentucky. The fact is G. Tech has never faced a team through 4 games or more allowing over 300 rushing yards a game. The Bowling Green offense is averaging just 4.3 yards a play and the Tech defense is slightly above average as well, so the Jackets have full control of every aspect of this game, including extensive garbage time, where they will still score on the ground. i have Tech with a 400 yard advantage in this game, make the play on Georgia Tech.

The Memphis Tigers were 10-3 a year ago averaging 45.5ppg. They appear to be even better this season. This is going to be a very difficult game for S. Alabama who at best is average from the line of scrimmage, trying to defend a Memphis team averaging over 9 yards a carry on the ground, and over 9 yards a pass attempt. The Tigers are very good defensively, something they did not have too often a year ago, holding teams to 3.9 yards a play. Darrell Henderson has been a beast on the ground where he has picked up 521 yards on just 36 carries at 14.5 yards a carry. The speed on this offense is going to leave S. Alabama in the dust, and Memphis is certainly not shy about running up the score, scoring 63 or more 9 times in the last 5 years, this looks like #10. Make the play on Memphis.

The Kentucky Wildcats are off to a 3-0 start, and finally broke through vs Florida, beating the Gators for the first time in 31 years. This is a confident experienced team that has an NFL caliber back in Benny Snell, who has rushed for 2.779 yrs. in 2+ years. QB Terry Wilson has thrown for 392 yards, while running for 233 himself. Miss St. is very good on both sides of the ball, and QB Nick Fitzgerald is good with his legs and arm, and will present quite the challenge for the Cats. Last year Miss St. crushed Kentucky at home 45-7 so there is a huge revenge factor here for Kentucky. The Wildcats are as good as they have been in quite some time, and are being under-valued here. They have lost 6 SEC home games since the start of 2015, and 5 of them have been:

Florida      -1

Miss         -3

Georgia      -3

Florida      -5

Auburn       -3

Basically even with worse teams, they seldom get beat by much at home if they lose, and that list includes some strong teams. Kentucky applies to a situation that is 55-27-1 ATS, and I think the Cats are even capable of an upset here, so I'll gladly take the points. Make the play on Kentucky.