Sports Picks & Predictions

We have not seen a ton of movement in this total since it opened but that should change by gametime so it may be best to jump on this one early as I expect it to go no where but up. Northwestern comes in with one of its best teams on paper in a long time and most of that comes from the offense as the Wildcats have eight starters back from last years 10-3 team. They averaged 31.7 ppg and they should get going right away against a Golden Bears defense that was ravaged at the end of the season last year, allowing 59 and 62 points in their final two games. Changes had to be made and they were. Along with head coach Jeff Tedford being shown the door, both coordinators are new. New defensive coordinator Andy Buh, who was most recently the linebackers coach at Wisconsin, will be installing a 4-3 formation to replace the 3-4 of years past. That will take time to develop and the Wildcats, led by the quarterback duo of Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian along with numerous playmakers including the top three returning rushers and six of the top seven returning receivers, will exploit it. Sonny Dykes takes over a California offense that averaged just 23.0 ppg and his system should provide a boost to the unit right away. In his third and final season with Louisiana Tech, Dykes oversaw the top ranked offense in the country as the Bulldogs racked up 577.9 ypg. It will not be that potent right away but the Golden Bears players are buying into it which makes a world of difference. Additionally, this is a very athletic team on offense and that is something that Northwestern tends to struggle against on that side of the ball. California is starting a true freshman at quarterback in Jared Goff, which is always a concern, but we are not asking for an astronomical amount of points here although going into the 30's would not be a surprise at all. Look for this one to fly over the total with ease. 10* Over (213) Northwestern Wildcats/(214) California Golden Bears

The Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins square off in Canton, Ohio for the Hall of Fame game to start to the NFL preseason. There are plenty of questions on both sidelines and playing time for each unit still has not been revealed by either coach which makes the side in this one a toss up in my opinion. I feel we are getting some great value on the total however as this one is sitting at 33 as of Wednesday morning which is a typical number for the first game of the exhibition season. Four of the last six Hall of Fame games have stayed under the total, including the last two, and while those past outcomes do not predict future results, it does show how defenses are more in synch early in the preseason. It is still unclear if Cowboys quarterback will see any playing time but that is meaningless either way as if he does play, it will be no more than one series. Backup Kyle Orton will see some time but since he is locked in as the number two quarterback, we will see action from either Nick Stephens or Alex Tanney or both as they will be fighting for the third quarterback spot. On the other side, Ryan Tannehill had a solid rookie season and again comes in as the starter. He will not see a lot of action and we probably won't see much of Matt Moore either as he is the slated number two quarterback. Pat Devlin will get the majority of snaps as he has looked pretty solid in camp when playing with the second string. Executing in a game though will be a different story. Both Miami and Dallas stayed under the total in their first preseason game last season and with the same personnel and coaching coming in this year, I expect another slow start for both offenses in this one. 10* Under (241) Miami Dolphins/(242) Dallas Cowboys

We lost with the under on Game Six as it was looking good until the Miami comeback sealed our fate which sent the game into overtime. I am coming back with the under tonight however as I feel the situation is perfect for a very low scoring affair. It is also going against the over streak which many will be riding once again. We have now seen the last four games go over the total and the last three have not even been close. Game Four saw 202 points, Game Five saw 218 points and Game Six saw 203 points. People will be expecting to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. This is where there is a difference from the past and it is almost as though the linesmakers are trying to bait bettors into taking the over. Whereas the total has risen each of the last three games to compensate for the over action coming in, this number has actually gone down from Game Six so many will feel there is value by taking the over. That may be the case from a raw numbers standpoint but not a situational standpoint. History shows these games are played tighter than others as the last three NBA Finals Game Seven total scores have been 162, 155 and 174. Clearly, defense is emphasized. We also have a great situation on our side as we play on the under in the NBA Finals where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. This situation is 50-18 (73.5 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (713) San Antonio Spurs/(714) Miami Heat

We won with the Over in Game Three as the number cleared the total by three points and that gamer triggered an Over barrage as the last two games have also gone over the total. The last two were not even close as Game Four saw 202 points while Game Five saw 218 points. That last game was easily the highest scoring game of the season series between the Heat and Spurs, regular season and playoffs, and it was also the highest scoring regulation game for San Antonio in the playoffs. It was also the highest scoring game for Miami in the playoffs as well so that will only help us out even more here. People will be expected to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. Because of the recent high scoring, the linesmakers have been forced to adjust the total to accommodate the Over action and thus, we are seeing the highest total of this series so far. That presents a ton of value. San Antonio is 8-1 to the under this season after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games and while going 12-3 to the under this season after scoring 60 or more points in the first half. Miami has gone under the total in four straight home games while going 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against winning teams. The Spurs also have a solid situation on their side for a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points involving a team shooting 46 percent or better on the season going up against an opponent that allowed 55 percent or higher in its last game. This situation is 50-22 (69.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (711) San Antonio Spurs/(712) Miami Heat

The first two games of this series went under the total with both closing totals being 189.5. Now the series shifts to San Antonio and we are catching a lower over/under to work with and it is the lowest total in the four meetings going back to the regular season. The Heats have now gone under the total in five straight games which makes this game a great situation to go the other way. The defense has led the way over this stretch as Miami has allowed just 84.4 ppg and the main reason has been limited opponents shots as it has forced opponents to shoot an average of 74.8 attempts per game. This is down significantly from its 80.9 attempts per game allowed during the regular season. San Antonio will have something to say about this on its home floor. The Spurs defense has limited the made shots over the last five games but they have allowed an average of 88.2 attempts per game over that span and more shot on offense from both sides means a potentially higher scoring game. I expect San Antonio to shoot the ball better than it did in Game Two as the big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili went a combined 10-33 (30.3 percent) from the floor. The Spurs have gone over in five of their last six home games while going 5-2 to the over in their last seven games following a loss. Meanwhile Miami is 10-4-1 to the over in its last 15 games playing on one day rest. 10* Over (705) Miami Heat/(706) San Antonio Spurs

After another over in Game Four, the first four games of this series have now all gone over the total and while we got burnt the last game, we will come back with the under again tonight. Not only will we be going against the over streak but we are again catching a valued number as this is the highest total that has been posted thus far in this series. Going back to the second round of the playoffs, Miami has seen the over go 5-0 in its last five games while Indiana is on a similar streak with its last five games going over the total as well. I mentioned Indiana needed a strong defensive effort in Game Four and it got it as it held Miami to 39 percent shooting from the floor. While the Pacers shot 50 percent that game, the reason the game cleared the total was due to free throws as the teams combined for 60 attempts, making 50 of those. This has been the story of late as after making a combined 40 free throws in Game One, they have averaged just over 49 makes the last three games. I expect that to come down as these teams are averaging just a combined 36.2 makes per game on the season. Both teams fall into two solid situations. First, we play the under involving teams that have gone over the total in five straight games and are outscoring opponents by three or more ppg. This situation is 156-96 (61.9 percent) to the under since 1996. Additionally, we play the under where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series which is tied. This situation is 104-64 (61.9 percent) since 1996. 10* Under (519) Indiana Pacers/(520) Miami Heat

The first three games of this series have all gone over the total but I expect that to come to an end tonight. Not only will we be going against the over streak but we are catching a great number in doing so as this is the highest total that has been posted thus far so we are getting additional value on top of it. Going back to the second round of the playoffs, Miami has seen the over go 4-0 while Indiana is on a similar streak with its last four games going over the total as well. The Pacers need this game badly to avoid falling behind 3-1 in this series and the only way to do that is to do a better job on the defensive end. The Heat's five starters each scored in double figures for the first time this postseason and overall they shot 54.5 percent from the floor while their 70 points in the first half set a franchise playoff record for points in a half. Indiana is allowing an NBA best 42.2 percent shooting on defense so that last effort was an aberration. Miami continued its strong play of defense, allowing the Pacers to shoot just 39.7 percent from the floor and over its last five games, it is allowing just 40.7 percent shooting. 10* Under (515) Miami Heat/(516) Indiana Pacers

It is crunch time for both teams tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a win in Game Five to extend the series but still needs to win the last two to take it. The Bulls meanwhile are up 3-2 but are in need of a win here to avoid going back to Brooklyn for Game Seven. With so much on the line, we should expect a game being played where each possession is critical and that will lead to a low scoring affair. The last two games of this series have gone over and we are now seeing a total that is seven points higher than it was in Game Four and 3.5 to 4 points higher than it was in Game Five which is providing excellent value. Injuries remain a big issue on both sides as the injury list is long both ways and that hurts the chemistry of the offenses more than anything. The big one for Chicago is the absence of Kirk Hinrich who is listed as doubtful with a calf injury. He has averaged 14.3 ppg over the last three games he has played in this series before sitting out Game Five. The Bulls defense has responded very well following a poor effort as they are 17-4 to the under in their last 21 games revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Brooklyn meanwhile is 25-12 to the under in its last 37 road games after playing a game at home and more recently it is 20-9 to the under in its last 29 games playing on two days rest. With the last two games easily going over the number, expect the opposite tonight in what will be a low scoring affair. 10* Under (539) Brooklyn Nets/(540) Chicago Bulls

The first two games of this series have gone under the total and by a wide margin for that matter. Game One went under by 26.5 points while Game Two went under the total by 27.5 points. This is creating exceptional value going the other way as tonight's total is 6.5 points less than the Game One Total and 2.5 points less than the Game Two total. This is the lowest over/under in this series since the final game of last season when the posted total was 182.5 and the teams combined for 228 points. Going back to the regular season, the under has come in five straight meetings although two of those would have gone over if being played with tonight's total. I am expecting Boston to play a lot better offensively on its home floor following rough performances in New York the first two games. The 23 points the Celtics scored in the second half of Game Two was the fewest in the team's playoff history and the 25 points scored in the second half of Game One was not much better. The Knicks have limited Boston to 39.2 percent shooting on their home court but New York is clearly not the same team defensively on the road, allowing 46.3 percent shooting this season. Additionally, Boston is much better at home, shooting 47.7 percent from the floor which is sixth highest in the NBA. We play the over involving teams after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 80 points or less two straight games. This situation is 46-20 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1996. Also, Boston is 10-4 to the over in its last 14 games after scoring 75 points or fewer in its last game. 10* Over (739) New York Knicks/(740) Boston Celtics

After seeing every game go under the total in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, every game in the Divisional Round went over the total and none were even close. Each game this past weekend went over by at least 12 points and the average game score was a whopping 69 ppg. What does that do for us this week? I creates some inflated totals because after those overs hit, the same will be bet this week by the majority of the betting markets so the linesmakers had to make the proper adjustments.

This number is sitting at 48 in most spots as of Monday morning and putting into perspective from the Atlanta side, it is a higher total than last week despite going up against a better defense and arguably the best stop unit in the NFL. The Falcons were able to hang 30 points on a very solid Seattle defense but most of the damage came early and once the Seahawks made their adjustments, Atlanta struggled. Expect the 49ers to have a gameplan right from the beginning that is going to make Atlanta stay in neutral.

The big concern here is the Falcons defense as they got exposed once again last week against the Seahawks. Whether it was a prevent type of defense that was played late, Atlanta could not stop Seattle down the stretch but I think that experience will help them going forward. The experience of playing a mobile quarterback like Russell Wilson should help the Falcons prepare for Colin Kaepernick, who is even more dangerous running the read-option behind a huge and tough offensive line.

On the other side, the 49ers won't get caught off-guard by Atlanta's rushing attack like the Seahawks as the Falcons rushed for a season-high 167 yards. San Francisco is third in total defense and second in scoring defense but it is the balance that really hurts opponents as the 49ers are fourth against the pass and against the run while ranking third in passing ypa and rushing ypc. Taking nothing away from Seattle's defense, but this is going to be a whole different scenario for the Falcons.

The 49ers have now gone over the total in five straight games and that is another reason this one is so high as streaks like that love to be played. We play on the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 124-75 under (62.3 percent) since 1983. Also, Atlanta is 10-2 to the under in its last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points last game. 10* Under (301) San Francisco 49ers/(302) Atlanta Falcons

We saw all four Wild Card Round game stay under the total which helped ease some of the pain for bookmakers that were killed by all four favorites coming in. That being said, we are likely going to see more high scoring games in the Divisional Round and I think this one has the most potent to surpass the total by the greatest amount. These teams are a combined 20-13 to the under this season and it is the recent results where I feel we are getting the best value out of this number.

Seattle had gone on a 5-0 over streak prior to the final week of the regular season where it stayed under against the Rams and last week against Washington also resulted in a winning under ticket. Granted this is the highest total the Seahawks have seen all season but it is for a reason. The defense has allowed 17 points or less in six straight games but one look at the opposing offenses will tell you why, not counting last week because of the RGIII injury. Now comes a test.

The Falcons are ranked eighth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense and it is largely due to a passing offense that is sixth overall and fourth in ypa. They have the best one-two punch in the league with receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White not to mention tight end Tony Gonzalez and slot receiver Harry Douglas that work the underneath and middle of the field. This offense provides a tough matchup for arguably the best secondary in the NFL and Atlanta should be able to exploit it.

Seattle will be without defensive end Chris Clemons who tore his ACL against Washington and that is a big blow. He registered 11.5 sacks while forcing three fumbles for Seattle in 2012. Seattle falls into a contrarian over situation as we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team off two or more consecutive unders and allowing 17 or fewer ppg on the season. This situation is 27-5 to the over (84.4 percent) the last five seasons. 10* Over (113) Seattle Seahawks/(114) Atlanta Falcons

Florida is obviously the better team in this matchup and that should lead the Gators to dictating the tempo and the way the game is played. They have one of the best defenses in the country as they are ranked fifth overall and third in scoring and they have allowed more than 20 points only once which came in their last game against Florida St. That game flew over the total which happened to be only the fourth game in 11 lined games that Florida surpassed the total. While the defense is one of the best, the offense has struggled all season as the Gators are ranked 101st in total offense and 74th in scoring offense. That scoring average is that high only because of a very positive turnover margin and Louisville is a team that does not turn the ball over much so Florida should not be given opportunities to take advantage. The Cardinals bring in a potent offense but the schedule had a lot to do with that as this is the first team from the top 50 that the Cardinals have had to face and the last time they saw a defense this good happened to come in their last game against Rutgers where they managed only 20 points. The passing offense is the strength but Louisville knows it has to run the ball to be successful as balance will be the key. Even when Louisville does try and pass, it is not going to be east. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had an outstanding season, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes. The Gators only allow approximately 186.4 ypg passing while also picking off the eighth-most passes with 19. The Gators defense kept Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Georgia's Aaron Murray in check and should do the same to Bridgewater. Both teams fall into a great total situation as we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl, in a non-conference game between two teams from major conferences. This situation is 72-26 (73.5 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (259) Louisville Cardinals/(260) Florida Gators

Dallas and Washington are playing for the NFC East and neither team will want to get into a shootout as that is where the majority of mistakes can be made. We are getting a lot of value here as well based on recent results and recent meeting history. These teams met on Thanksgiving and the game flew over the number as 69 points were scored on a 47-point closing number. Additionally, both teams have been involved in high-scoring games of late as Dallas as gone over in two straight games and even though both went into overtime, that did not come into play. Meanwhile Washington has gone over in three straight games and because of these factors, we are seeing a very high number here. Not counting Dallas playing New Orleans last week, this is the highest total the Cowboys have seen and for Washington, it has gone under in the last four games where the total was 48 points or higher. Add to the fact this is the Sunday night game and the public will be all over the over so the market had to adjust. Dallas is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games on the road with a total of 45.5 or higher while Washington is 12-5 to the under in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (315) Dallas Cowboys/(316) Washington Redskins

After going over the total in four of five games, Utah has stayed under the number in each of its last three heading into Brooklyn tonight. The Jazz have managed just 84 and 86 points in their last two games both of which resulted in double-digits losses and they need to get the offense back in gear as they were one of just nine teams in the NBA that were averaging over 100 ppg heading into those games. The task does not get any easier against Brooklyn which has a solid defense although it has not been playing its best of late. The Nets are coming off a very low scoring game against Chicago where only 165 points were scored and that is adding value here. They came into that game allowing an average of 102.6 ppg over their previous seven games, five of which saw them allow 100 or more points. The Brooklyn offense has not been very strong either but facing the Jazz can turn that around in a hurry as Utah has given up 99 or more points in 10 of its last 13 games, allowing an average of 101.2 ppg over that stretch. The Nets have gone under in eight of 10 games on the road but are 8-5 to the over at home including four of their last five at the Barclays Center. Additionally, Brooklyn is 18-8 to the over in its last 26 home games following a loss while the Jazz are 29-15 to the over in their last 44 road games with a total between 190 and 199.5 points. 10* Over (505) Utah Jazz/(506) Brooklyn Nets

We are getting some excellent value on this total based on recent results. Houston is coming off two straight low scoring wins at home against Washington and Boston and while both stayed under, those totals were placed at 206 and 207 so we are getting a number close to 10 points less that what those closed at. Obviously the opponent here has something to do with that but that should not cause the big drop in my opinion. Toronto has gone under in four straight games with at least one team being held to 88 or fewer points in each of those games. Prior to that, the Raptors previous seven games saw at least one team hit the century mark and to no surprise, five of those games went over the total. Making it more surprising was that five of those games had closing totals higher than what we are dealing with on Sunday. Houston has dropped six straight games on the road and defense has been the issue as it has allowed an average of 111.2 ppg over those six games and has allowed at least 114 points in four of the last five. The Raptors defense has been bad all season as it is allowing an average of 101.4 ppg which is the fourth most in the league. The worst? That would be the Rockets which are allowing an NBA-high 104.1 ppg. These two teams played a high scoring game in Houston less than three weeks ago and that total was at 203 so we are seeing a big drop from that as well. These teams are a combined 6-2 to the over this season when the total is priced between 195 and 199.5 while the over is 11-5 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the over is 5-0 in their last five road games against losing teams while Toronto is 5-2 to the over in its last seven games following a win and 4-1 to the over in its last five games after allowing less than 75 points in its previous game. 10* Over (801) Houston Rockets/(802) Toronto Raptors

We have seen Oklahoma City go under the total in three of its last four games as the defense has been outstanding. Brooklyn has gone under the total in five of its last six games and both the offense and defense have kept the scores down. Because of these recent results, we are getting a much lower than expected number. The Thunder defense has been playing great as mentioned as they have allowed an average of just 82 ppg over their last four games but three of those were at home. They did allowed just 79 points in their last game at New Orleans but previous to that, Oklahoma City went over in its three previous road games. The offense has been a different story as the Thunder have eclipsed the century mark in nine straight games, averaging 111.3 ppg over that stretch. On the season, their 105.1 ppg scored is the highest average in the NBA. The Nets have gone under in three straight home games but the totals have all been higher than what is on the board for tonight so that is where the value comes into play. Four of their first five games at home went over and playing the highest scoring offense in the NBA will get back to that. Oklahoma City, while going 1-5 to the under when the total is at 200 or higher, is 8-4 to the over when the total is less than 200. The Over is 8-3 in Oklahoma City's last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Over is 9-4 in the Nets last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Over (705) Oklahoma City Thunder/(706) Brooklyn Nets

While many saw a closer game or a high scoring game, not many saw the Packers offense get completely shutdown by the Giants last week. Green Bay managed only 10 points which was not only a season low but it was the fewest amount of points scored in its last 32 games, a stretch that goes back to the final game of the 2010 regular season. The Packers scored fewer than 10 points twice prior that season and followed that up with high scoring games of 52 and 58 points next time out.

The Vikings are also coming off a game where they scored only 10 points which is also a season low for them. Minnesota was coming off three straight games that went over the total and while the offense played its part, it was the defense that really played poorly as the Vikings allowed an average of 30 ppg. Now they catch the Packers off their worst output of the season as well as putting up just 314 and 317 total yards the last two games which will spell some serious trouble for the Vikings defense.

Scoring on the road has been a challenge for Minnesota as it is averaging 19.2 ppg but it has put up at least 20 points in four of its five of its road games and that number should be more than enough to push this one over. The Vikings passing offense has had its problems over the last few games as Christian Ponder has been playing poorly but Green Bay has the 22nd ranked passing defense in the NFL and while Green Bay's rushing defense is better, Minnesota counters that with Adrian Peterson.

On top of that, the Packers will be without defensive end C.J. Wilson, a cornerstone of their run defense. And the news is still bad at the other two levels as linebacker Clay Matthews is likely out one more week while the secondary will be shorthanded again this week with Charles Woodson and Sam Shields remaining out. That could mean some needed balance in the Vikings offense and a chance to have a much better game than the seven points they scored here last November.

Historical scenarios are on our side here also as Green Bay is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or higher and 6-0 to the over in its last six home games in the second half of the season. Also, the Packers are 4-0 to the over in their last four games following an ATS loss while the Vikings are 4-0 to the over in their last four games after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game. 10* Over (341) Minnesota Vikings/(342) Green Bay Packers

Carolina has gone over in two straight games but both of those games were at home against a couple teams whose offenses have been piling up the points. The same cannot be said for the Eagles which will again be without Michael Vick and will also be missing running back LeSean McCoy. Philadelphia managed only six points last week against the Redskins with Nick Foles under center and while the Panthers defense is far from a stout unit, expect the Eagles to continue their struggles on offense.

This is a contrarian under call against the Eagles defense which has been lit up for 31, 38, 28 and 30 points over their last four games. However this is the type of game that a defense that has been gashed tends to step up in big situations and a Monday night game can certainly qualify. The Panthers offense has had their struggles this season as they are 22nd overall and 27th in scoring. They have been held to 331 yards or less in five of their last six games and seven times overall on the season.

On the other side, the Panthers want to step up as well. Defensive end Charles Johnson said the Panthers want to prove a point Monday regardless of who plays quarterback for the Eagles. "Hopefully, we can show up and show out. When the lights come on, you should play your butt off. The whole world's watching, so just leave it all out on the line," Johnson said. "We definitely have to show the world what Carolina Panthers defense is about. Hopefully, we can do that and come out with a W."

While the Eagles have two big names out on offense, they have been bad to begin with. They are 14th overall in total offense but 31st in scoring offense and a lot of that has been because of turnovers. Philadelphia has scored more than 23 points only once this year and has tallied 17 points or less in six of ten games on the season. History shows the struggles will go on as the Eagles are 12-3 to the under in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less.

Additionally, the Eagles are 17-4 to the under in their last 21 games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games while Carolina is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games coming off a home loss against a division rival. Also, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with a defense allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 24-7 to the under (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Under (245) Carolina Panthers/(246) Philadelphia Eagles

The Patriot offense was on display again this past week as they hung 59 points on the Colts in a 35-point win. However the score is deceiving as two touchdowns came on interception returns and another on a punt return so it wasn't all offense that got it done. New England has gone over the total in eight straight games and this signals the time to go against that. This total has dropped from its opening but with it being New England in primetime, expect this one to rise once we get closer to kickoff.

The Jets halted their three-game losing streak as they won by 14 points over the Rams despite outgaining St. Louis by just eight total yards. The game went over the total and now the Jets are hit with their biggest O/U of the season so we are seeing value the other way. The defense has allowed fewer than 300 yards in three of its last five games so they are more than capable of slowing the Patriots offense down. New York is still a dismal 30th in the NFL in total offense. Hold off until later in the week to hit this under as it should rise again as mentioned. 10* Under (107) New England Patriots/(108) New York Jets

We played this over on Friday and it was Orlando that let us down as the Magic scored a mere 68 points on 42.9 percent shooting. The problem was they took only 70 shots and they went to the free throw line only eight times which is unheard of in the NBA. Now they get a rematch with Brooklyn and we can expect Orlando to be a little more aggressive this time around in hopes of getting to the rim. The Magic scored 30 points in the paint and that obviously has to increase. The Nets did their part as expected as they were coming off a disastrous offensive effort at Miami as they scored just 73 points on 30-80 (37.5 percent) shooting. This included a putrid 3-21 (14.3 percent) from long range. They got worse as the game went along as Brooklyn scored a mere 32 second half points. Brooklyn bounced back with 107 points on 50 percent shooting and it matched the second half output against Miami with a 32-point fourth quarter against the Magic. The Nets offense has been better at home in the young season as they are shooting 46.8 percent including 50 percent from long range. They will be facing an Orlando defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 46.3 percent from the floor so Brooklyn should have no problem keeping the offense rolling. The Magic have had their struggles shooting on the road so far but the Nets are allowing opponents to shoot 47.6 percent in their home games so expect a big bounceback as Orlando has no where to go but up. Because of the low scoring game on Friday, the total has dropped from 195 then to 191 in this matchup so we are catching a good amount of value. Orlando has gone under in two straight games and the same goes for the Nets and today's total is well below any over/under each has seem over this stretch. Going back to last season, the over is 18-3-1 in Orlando's last 22 games after scoring less than 75 points in its previous game while the Nets are 5-0 to the over in their last five home games. There is a solid situation in pay as well as we play the over involving a team coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more going up against an opponent after scoring 80 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 45-19 (70.3 percent) to the over since 1996. 10* Over (501) Orlando Magic/(502) Brooklyn Nets

We saw the under come in last night which was good for Vegas and the books and they will be hoping for the same tonight but will not be as fortunate. We played the Saints to stay under last Sunday night which it did without much of a problem. That game was on the road however as the New Orleans offense struggled with only 252 total yards which was a season low. The only other time the Saints were held to fewer than 300 total yards, they erupted for 474 yards next game.

The 14 points scored last week was the lowest point total New Orleans has put up since opening week of 2009 not counting Week 17 games. The Saints responded with 25 points in its next game. Last season, New Orleans lowest output on offense was 20 points at Tampa Bay. It responded with 62 points at home against the Colts. Granted the Colts were horrible but the point is that New Orleans has responded in the past coming off poor offensive efforts and that will happen again.

The Eagles game went over the total last week as they lost to the Falcons 30-17. Their offense has been its share of struggles this season as Philadelphia has scored 19 points or fewer in four of its last five games. Those four games were against teams ranked in the top ten of the NFL in scoring defense however and tonight that will not be the case as the Saints are ranked 30th in points allowed and dead last in total defense. Now is the time for the Eagles to break out of that slump.

Even though they have not put up points, the Eagles offense has been able to move the ball as they are 13th in total offense which is not great but it shows turnovers have been a big cause in holding them back. They should have no issues as New Orleans has created only nine turnovers on defense and that is one of the big reasons it has struggled so much as it has been on the field for way too long. Philadelphia can take advantage and break out of its low scoring slump.

This is no doubt a big number but I feel it is very justified as the situation and the matchups both favor a high-scoring game. 20 is the magic number here as the Eagles are 6-0 to the over in their last six games when both teams score 20 or more points and New Orleans is 13-3 to the over in its last 16 games in the same parameter. Those 22 games have averaged 57.8 ppg. The over is 8-1 in the Saints last nine games against teams with a losing record and the over is 4-0 in the Eagles last four road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* Over (439) Philadelphia Eagles/(440) New Orleans Saints

Ohio is coming off its first loss of the season and while we played against the Bobcats in that game, we will not backing them in what is considered a rebound spot as the line is hefty and they have not been able to blow teams away of late. Instead, we will be looking for a high-scoring game as Ohio heads home where all three games against FBS teams has sailed over the number that is posted for this game. The Bobcats and their opponents have averaged 68.7 ppg in those three games.

Eastern Michigan meanwhile is coming off yet another loss at Bowling Green to fall to 1-7 on the season and things are not going to get any easier here. The Eagles managed only three points against the Falcons and while the concern here could be the offense once again, it likely will not take a ton of points to send this one over the number. That is because the defense is even worse as Eastern Michigan is 112th in the country overall and 11th in points allowed, giving up 37.5 ppg.

Ohio had its worst game offensively on the season as it managed only 20 points but it did put up 464 yards of offense which was its fourth highest amount of the season. The problem was the Bobcats had to settle for field goals and also got stopped deep in Miami territory to end the game. The Bobcats are 33rd in total offense and 32nd in scoring offense, the latter being second in the MAC so moving the ball and scoring again will not be an issue. They are pretty average defensively, coming in 61st overall.

We are getting some excellent value in this total in my opinion and a lot of that is due to the results from last week. Eastern Michigan had only 27 total points in its last game after going over the total in three straight games prior to that. Meanwhile, Ohio and Miami put up 43 points in their game and that one stayed well below the number. The Bobcats have stayed under in two straight games although the prior game against Akron finished with 62 points but an extremely high total kept it under.

Eastern Michigan is 12-3 to the over in its last 15 games after coming off a game that stayed under the total and it is 5-0 to the over in its last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. This includes a perfect 3-0 to the over in that situation this season. The Bobcats meanwhile are 4-1 to the over in their last five games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. We are getting excellent value here and this one should have no issues going over. 10* Over (303) Eastern Michigan Eagles/(304) Ohio Bobcats

Both Louisville and Cincinnati are two of the three remaining undefeated teams in the Big East Conference so this is a big game for both sides. The Cardinals are undefeated overall at 7-0 following a close win over South Florida last week. The offense continues to pile on the points as Louisville is averaging 32.4 ppg. On the other side, Cincinnati was undefeated until it lost at Toledo last week to fall to 5-1. That was the Bearcats first road game of the season.

Both games last week involving these two teams stayed under the total and we are seeing a big adjustment in the over/under this week and it adds value going the other way. It is even more prevalent when looking at the explosiveness of these offenses as Cincinnati is averaging 6.8 yppl while Louisville is averaging 6.1 yppl and to put those in perspective, one of the best offenses is the country, Oregon, is averaging 6.4 yppl. We should see some big plays on both sides here.

The defenses on both sides are pretty average even though the rankings are somewhat high. Louisville is ranked 31st in total defense which doesn't look very bad at all. However the Cardinals have played teams ranked 113th, 20th, 70th, 110th, 49th and 65th in total offense so the majority has been bad. The two best offenses they have faced are North Carolina (20th) and Pittsburgh (49th) and those two teams put up 34 and 35 points respectively against them. Cincinnati comes in 24th in total offense.

On the other side, the Bearcats defense is a respectable 37th in the country but they also have not played many offenses that can light it up. They only allowed 10 points against Pittsburgh but that was their first game of the season and Pittsburgh's second game and the Panthers have been much better since then. The best offense Cincinnati has faced was last week against Toledo and the Rockets put up 29 points which is the most it has allowed all season. Louisville has been average but does score a lot of points.

I do not think the defenses on either side has what it takes to completely shut down its opponent. Both teams possess mobile quarterbacks that can win with the arm or legs so they will be difficult to contain. Both teams fall into a simple yet solid situation as we play the over in conference games involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better. This situation is 168-98 (63.2 percent) to the over the last five seasons. We should see a very entertaining game Friday with plenty of points. 10* Over (107) Cincinnati Bearcats/(108) Louisville Cardinals

San Francisco and Detroit enter Game One of the World Series both coming off overs in their Championship Series clinching wins. I don't think that did a lot with the total here but going against the run is advantageous here. With the series starting in San Francisco, the DH has been taken out of the Detroit lineup which is one less hitter to deal with. Detroit has been off since the 18th, a span of six days in-between games. Rest is good this time of year but that is too much rest. It is great for the starters and the relievers but it is not good for the offense as time off like that can put a big strain on the bats. Although the bats have not been overly productive during the postseason as the Tigers have averaged just four runs per game which includes the eight-run output in Game Four against the Yankees where it looks as though they had given up before the game even started. Like the Giants, the Detroit pitching was the story as it has allowed an average of just 1.9 rpg during the postseason while giving up one run or no runs five times. The Tigers have their ace going tonight as Justin Verlander gets the call and he has been outstanding going 7-0 with a 0.69 ERA, 52 strikeouts and 11 walks over his last seven starts, three of them in the playoffs. All three of his playoff starts stayed under the total and can expect the same here as he is totally locked in right now. The Giants bats got hot when necessary against the Cardinals as they came back from a 3-1 deficit and scored 20 runs over the final three games to win the series. A lot of that was some fortunate bounces as well as some unearned runs though we can't put it all on the offense. The pitching was the real story as after St. Louis put up 18 runs in the first four games, San Francisco pitching allowed only one run over the final three games. A third of that was because of the sensational effort put up by Barry Zito in Game Five which ended up being the turning point of the series. Now he gets the call in Game One of the World Series and I expect nothing less of another great effort as his last couple months have been some of his best in recent years. Including the postseason, he has lasted at least 5.2 innings and allowed no more than three runs in six of his last seven starts. He has a 2.09 ERA over that stretch and if he finds his spots and the curveball is working, he will be extremely tough to hit once again. 10* Under (901) Detroit Tigers/(902) San Francisco Giants

The first two games of this series have gone over the total and we are getting some value in tonight's total because of that. The last total closed at 6.5 in Game Two and we have actually gained an extra half run in this one despite two aces on the hill so we will be going the other way as we look for what should be a very low scoring game. The Giants were able to even the series with a 7-1 win on Monday which happened to be the fourth straight game they have been in that has surpassed the number as well as the sixth in seven postseason games. The offense has averaged 6.25 rpg during this four-game stretch but that comes to a halt with Kyle Lohse on the mound for the Cardinals. He has pitched well in the postseason so far as he has allowed just three runs in 12.2 innings for a 2.13 ERA . He has been awesome at home all season as he is 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 16 starts with 10 of those 16 staying below the number. He has not faced the Giants since 2011 and that is a big edge on his side. The under is 14-4 in Lohse's last 18 starts following a quality outing in his last start. Then Cardinals bats were finally put in check in Game Two as they had scored six runs or more in five of the first seven postseason games. Like San Francisco, the over has been a majority winner as five of the last six games have gone over while six of eight overall postseason games have surpassed the number. It will be up to Matt Cain to repeat what Ryan Vogelsong did and even though the playoffs have not started well, Cain will be up for the challenge. He has allowed six runs in just 10.2 innings in his first two postseason starts against the Reds and he struggled against the Cardinals this year, going 1-1 with a 6.94 ERA in two starts, and is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA overall in eight starts. Those are not good numbers to lead into a pivotal Game Three but he has been on his game all season and this is the time to step up. We finally get the pitching duel we have been waiting for. 10* Under (911) San Francisco Giants/(912) St. Louis Cardinals

Three of the last four Monday night games have stayed below the total and that is just fine with the bookmakers as there is always heavy action on the over in these primetime games. Because both Denver and San Diego are coming of high scoring games once again, we are getting value based on this total being inflated. The early action came in on the under which has brought the number down slightly but not enough to hurt the play as we are likely going to see the number go back up once it gets closer to gametime.

The Broncos lost a high profile game at New England last week and it was the third time this season that their game went over the total. It was also the third time that the game went over because of a late Denver touchdown. They scored with under two minutes left to go over against Pittsburgh, they scored with three minutes left to go over against Houston and they scored with six minutes left go over against the Patriots. All three can be considered garbage scores and all three have added to the value of a low scoring game.

San Diego has now played two straight games that have surpassed the total. The Chargers went way over the number in Kansas City and the last game snuck over because of a late field goal depending on when the total was taken. This week's over/under is slightly less than the game against the Saints but not by much and these last two totals have been the highest they have had all season. The last game San Diego played at home was against Atlanta and the total of 47 was not close to being touched.

While both teams are known on the surface as good offensive teams, the defenses are not that bad. Denver is 13th in total defense while San Diego is 11th in total defense. Both teams are coming off their worst defensive efforts of the season so we can see both rebounded on that side of the ball this week. The Chargers are 6-0 to the under in their last six home games after a game where 50 or more points were scored while going 11-3 to the under in their last 14 home games after gaining 6.5 or more yppl last game.

Obviously Denver is a different team this year with Peyton Manning under center so past history can give us some flawed information but looking at the league as a whole, we often see divisional games being played closer to the vest thus creating more lower scoring games. San Diego is 6-0 to the under in its last six divisional home games while Denver is 4-0 to the under in its last four divisional games. I expect those to remain perfect as should see a much lower scoring game than what the total is telling us. 10* Under (233) Denver Broncos/(234) San Diego Chargers

The Giants and Cardinals open the NLCS on Sunday and both are coming off clinching games that saw them fly over the total. Many are going to continue to ride that offense in this opening game and this provides value going the other way in my opinion. Four of the five games against the Reds went over for San Francisco despite a mixture of dead offense and solid pitching but those factors only meshed once in the series. The Giants scored only two runs in the first two games which were played at home and I am expecting a similar lack of production here. The Under is 5-1 in the Giants last six series opening games. They will oppose Lance Lynn who is taking the starting spot of Jaime Garcia but he is far from a replacement pitcher as he was 17-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 29 starts during the regular season. He did post a 7.36 ERA in 3.2 innings of relief to start the postseason but he does have strong experience as in the 2011 NLCS, Lynn went 1-0 and allowed zero runs over 5.1 innings. St. Louis should be dragging on offense after a huge come from behind win and then a red eye flight to San Francisco. The Cardinals have gone over in four of their six postseason games as the offense has picked it up but the situation here will be a tough one. Similar to the Giants, the Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals last six series opening games. Madison Bumgarner will try and redeem himself following a poor outing against Cincinnati in the NLDS and even though he ended the regular season badly, he brings in a great track record. He is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA over four postseason starts and pitching at home has been a strength as he had a strong regular season there, his Division Series start notwithstanding, posting a 2.33 ERA in 14 home starts, the fifth-lowest home mark in the National League. 10* Under (903) St. Louis Cardinals/(904) San Francisco Giants

We have seen the total go up by a half-run in each of the first four games of this series and today I think it is justified. Last night, we won on the under with two very capable starting pitchers but tonight they take a step down in class which means we see some offense. The ball barely got out of the infield at times on Tuesday but that will not be the case here and this is the best opportunity for the Giants to get their non-productive bats going. San Francisco has scored a total of four runs through the first three games of this series which is a surprise as over the last 15 regular season games, it averaged nearly five rpg. Tonight the Giants face Mike Leake who was thrown into this start due to the injury to ace Johnny Cueto. Leake was all over the place this year and he did not fare well at home where he posted a 5.54 ERA in 16 starts. He dominated the Giants in his only start against them this year but that was in San Francisco and it was way back in June. The Reds bats were quiet last night after lighting San Francisco up for 14 runs in the first two games and I expect a return to that after scoring just one run last night. Barry Zito gets the call and because of a very strong finish to the season, he made the postseason roster and will be starting his first playoff game since 2006. He pitched very against the Reds this season but those were early on and his career numbers are not good as he has a 6.25 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 12 games against Cincinnati. 10* Over (927) San Francisco Giants/(928) Cincinnati Reds

The Giants are in must win mode now as they are down 2-0 in this best of five Division Series and this one should come down to the pitching yet again. The first two games of this series have gone over as San Francisco managed only two runs total in those first two games and it has been struggling for a while, scoring three runs or less in six of its last eight games. Because the first two games went over, we are getting some added value as this is the highest total we have seen thus far as it has gone from 6.5 to 7 and now to 8. The under is 5-1-1 in the Giants last seven playoff games as an underdog between +110 and +150. Neither Matt Cain nor Madison Bumgarner were able to completely shut down the Reds and the Giants are hoping Ryan Vogelsong can do it. He did not have a good August and struggled at the start of September but he did finish strong by allowing just one run over his last three starts covering 17 innings. Since reviving his career with the Giants, Vogelsong is 27-16 with a 3.05 ERA in 61 games so he is up for the challenge and the Giants are 5-1-1 to the under in his last seven starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Meanwhile the under is 19-5-3 in the Reds last 27 games against right-handed starters. The Reds bats have taken control of this series which has been a surprise as Cincinnati closed the regular season by scoring four runs or less in its last 10 games including three runs or less eight times. The Reds scored just 352 runs or home this season while hitting only .256 and the under is 11-1-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Homer Bailey gets the call and he wasn't even supposed to start this game as he is taking the place of Mat Latos who had to go in relief of Johnny Cueto in Game One. Bailey is coming off that no-hitter two starts back but he was very solid all season as he set career-bests in starts (33), wins (13), innings (208), strikeouts (168), ERA (3.68) and strikeouts to walks (3.23). The under is 5-0-1 in Bailey's last six starts as a favorite. 10* Under (921) San Francisco Giants/(922) Cincinnati Reds

This is the first year of the single Wild Card game so we have no history to go off of in this type of situation. This is a do or die scenario and with a one and done format, the pressure on the pitchers is going to be immense. Atlanta and St. Louis met six times this season with all six of those games going over the total. Those past games cannot predict future outcomes but because of the high scoring games we saw the totals sitting pretty high with only one of those over/unders being below 7.5. Now here comes the playoffs and all of a sudden we have a total that is all the way down to 6.5 which is anywhere from one to two runs lower than in five of those six regular season meetings. Granted those games were in May but that should make do difference. While the postseason tends to be dictated by pitching, that was not the case last year as the Over was 22-15-1 in the playoffs a season ago. We are dealing the Cardinals offense that had one of the best averages in baseball and are able to produce runs so their matchup against Kris Medlen is an intriguing one. It is no secret anymore than the Braves have won his last 23 starts going back to 2010 and that he has a 0.97 ERA over his last 12 starts but with the pressure on the pitchers ands this being his first start against St. Louis, it could be a tough outing. On the flip side, the Braves offense was not very good this season and was even worse during the second half with a .233 average but bring on Kyle Lohse. He had a career season but in his lone start against the Braves this season, he allowed five runs on nine hits in just five inning. Wit this being the ultimate playoff pressure, that helps the Atlanta bats that much more as in three playoff starts last year, Lohse allowed 11 runs in 12.2 innings. Look forward to a high-scoring Wild Card game. 10* Over (901) St. Louis Cardinals/(902) Atlanta Braves

Dallas has started the season by going low in its first three games with all of those contests going under the total. The offense has been surprisingly inconsistent as the Cowboys are 19th in the NFL in total offense and an even worse 31st in scoring offense. Facing a Bears defense does not look like the situation to turn it around however we are catching a very favorable total for tonight and it is actually the lowest the Cowboys have seen this year. The value squarely lies on the over.

Chicago meanwhile has gone under in each of its last two games as the offense was unable to do anything against the Packers two weeks ago while the defense was able to shut down the Bears last week. The defense was ranked fifth in the league in both yards and scoring heading into Week Four and that is part of the reason we are catching a low number for tonight. The numbers are skewed somewhat however as the Bears did allow 356 and 321 yards to the Colts and Packers the first two weeks.

On the other side, the Cowboys are first in the NFL in total defense, allowing only 250 ypg. They were able to hold down the potent Giants offense but that was opening week and Dallas was not tested against Seattle and the Buccaneers in the last two games. Tampa Bay had 166 yards last week including just 96 yards before its final drive of the game so while the Bears defense has been strong, the Cowboys stop unit has quietly got the job done. Things will be tougher here though.

As mentioned, the Cowboys offense has been very inconsistent and the Bears offense has been the same. The difference though is that Chicago has not been taking a conservative approach as quarterback Jay Cutler's average pass has traveled 9.8 yards past the line of scrimmage, the fourth-highest in the league. The issue has been poor first down execution which has put them in long yardage situations on second and third down so getting that in order will help the offense immensely.

Monday nights have been low scoring so far as three of the four games have all gone under including each of the last two weeks. These nights are big for the public in betting the over and they have been stung so far but this is where we get the turnaround. The Cowboys are 18-8-3 to the over in their last 29 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Bears are 16-7 to the over in their last 23 games against teams averaging 260 or more passing ypg. 10* Over (231) Chicago Bears/(232) Dallas Cowboys

The under has been the theme so far in Week Three as nine of the first 15 games have gone under. After averaging 49.4 ppg in Week One, which was a high for opening weekend, NFL games averaged 47.8 ppg in Week Two. So far in Week Three, games have averaged 47 ppg which is still pretty high considering the amount of games that have gone under. Adjustments were made in the totals by the linesmakers and it worked in their favor.

That being said, I feel we are getting a very reasonable number for Monday that can go over. Last night broke a string of four straight primetime games that did not go over and while the public will again be on the over tonight which is the case for most Monday night games, I feel it is justified. Neither offense has been good through the first two weeks with the Packers coming in 23rd in total offense and the Seahawks coming in 28th in total offense. We go contrarian with those units tonight.

The Green Bay offense is due. Last season, the Packers offense broke franchise records for points and passing yards and led to quarterback Aaron Rodgers producing the highest passer rating (122.5) of all time. After ranking fifth in the NFL last season with an average length of completion of 7.76 yards, Rodgers ranks 31st this year at just 4.94 yards. Teams have been playing their safeties back in a cover-2 type scheme and Seattle could break that trend meaning the offense should have a big night.

While the Seahawks have a rookie as a starting quarterback and the Packers defense has been very solid so far, the potential is there for Seattle to put up some decent amount of points. I do not think the Seahawks will be able to keep up with Green Bay but the key here will be the Packers offense forcing Seattle into a shootout type of game. As long as the Packers can be consistent with their offense, the Seahawks will have no option but to somewhat abandon the running game which has been the strength so far.

Both teams are coming off low scoring games in Week Two which has helped with this total. In fact, Seattle has played two low scoring games so far so the value will be going the other way tonight. Green Bay is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a divisional win while Seattle is 17-5 to the over in its last 22 games coming off a win as a home underdog. In addition, the Over is 7-1 in Seattle's last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* Over (429) Green Bay Packers/(430) Seattle Seahawks

We are going with the same strategy we used to win Monday on the Denver and Atlanta under. After averaging 49.4 ppg in Week One, which was a high for opening weekend, NFL games averaged 47.8 ppg in Week Two so while scoring was down some, it was a very insignificant increase. Despite this, the over was just 8-7-1 this past week and is now just 17-14-1 on the season so while scoring is high, the linesmakers have made up for it by adjusting their totals and not letting the public run away with over tickets.

Here we have a similar situation where both the Giants and Panthers are coming off very high scoring games on Sunday. New York and Tampa Bay combined for 75 points while Carolina and New Orleans combined for 62 points so both games went over without a problem. That is now providing us with a big over/under for Thursday night and because of those Week Two results, we know where the square money is going to be once again. We have not seen much movement yet but this number should slide up even more.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning had a pretty crazy game as he was picked off three times early but responded with a monster game, throwing for 510 yards and three touchdowns. His quarterback rating was pretty low because of the picks and a performance like that is going to get a lot of talk gong forward. A repeat will be discussed, especially against a poor Panthers defense but this is the first road game for the Giants and with a big come-from-behind win in the books, an offensive letdown is imminent.

The Panthers offense did not match the 604 yards put up by the Giants but Carolina still put up 463 total yards against the Saints. The New Orleans defense is last in the NFL in total yards allowed after that performance coming right after a horrible one at home to the Panthers output is a little skewed. Despite 34 points allowed, New York gave up just 307 total yards as a lot of the damage was because of turnovers. Carolina managed only 301 yards of offense against Tampa Bay in Week One.

The Manning output last week puts the under in a good spot this week as the Giants are 5-1 to the under in their last six games after putting up 250 or more yards passing while the Panthers are 6-1 to the under in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing. Also, Carolina is 15-5 to the under in its last 20 home games coming off a home win while the Giants are 52-33 to the under in their last 85 games coming off a home win. The value is once again favoring an under play. 10* Under (303) New York Giants/(304) Carolina Panthers

After averaging 49.4 ppg in Week One, which was a high for opening weekend, NFL games have averaged 47.8 ppg through the first 15 games of Week Two. While each game is a separate entity, the results of other games will not affect future games but it will affect what we are betting against and how the public perceives that. That is certainly the case here as because of all of the high scoring going on, this total has gone from an opening of 49 in most placers to upwards of 52.5 as of Monday morning.

We waited to release this one based on the fact that we wanted to get the best possible number and we still have the chance of getting a better one later in the day or night as this one could still climb. Last Monday night, the totals split in both games but again, the public was on the over in both as is the case every game on Monday night. That is where the value comes into play and it is not necessarily a bet against the public but a play against the number that the linesmakers are putting out based on that.

Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning made a triumphant return to the NFL as he led Denver to a win over Pittsburgh where 50 total points were scored. While it may have gone over, the game was not exactly an offensive show as the teams combined for just 618 total yards and after Week One, Denver was near the bottom third of the NFL in total offense. Obviously the offense is the main story because of Manning but the Broncos defense is a very solid and underrated unit.

The defense will have to be on top of its game against a potent Falcons offense that hung 40 points on Kansas City in Week One. After watching the Chiefs allowed 35 points against Buffalo, yesterday, the Atlanta output is not as impressive as first thought. Quarterback Matt Ryan had a near flawless game but we have seen in the past that some of his best games are followed up with pretty bad games. The offense looks to be fast-paced but we could see a slow down on Monday.

Atlanta running back Michael Turner averaged only 2.9 ypc against the Chiefs but Atlanta coach Mike Smith says he wants more from his running game in Week Two of the season and beyond. The Falcons defense will have do a better job of not letting up big plays and at home, that is a clear advantage. The under is 5-0 in the Broncos last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 8-2 in the Falcons last 10 games following a win. 10* Under (225) Denver Broncos/(226) Atlanta Falcons

MAC play starts early for Eastern Michigan and Ball St. and we should be in store for an entertaining game if you like scoring. Early in the college football season, units that are trying to replenish players take time to come together and we will be seeing that on both defensive sides here. Usually defenses are ahead of the offenses to start the season but that isn't the case for the Eagles and Cardinals as both offenses return a substantial portion of their starters from a season ago.

Ball State's offense that averaged 379.4 ypg a season ago virtually stays the same. The Cardinals bring back quarterback Keith Wenning following an outstanding sophomore season where he passed for 2,786 yards with 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing 64 percent of his passes. He loses his top two receivers but depth is plentiful. The top four running backs return as do four starters on the offensive line which is the most experienced unit in the country.

The Eagles ranked fourth in total defense in MAC action last year, allowing 355.1 ypg but they will be hard pressed to repeat that ranking this season as they return only five starters on the defense. The defensive line and secondary are both areas of concern. Defensive end Andy Malumba is the only returning player from the front four while cornerbacks Marline Pollard and Marcell Rose return to a secondary that could be tested at the safety spots.

Eastern Michigan will make up for the defensive shortcomings with a potent offense. The Eagles will be led with a strong rushing attack as they were ranked third among MAC teams rushing the football (218.3 ypg) and was 14th nationally last season. Six of the top seven running backs return but the big asset is that all five offensive linemen return. Quarterback Alex Gillett returns and he is coming off a very solid season and he should only be better as he did a lot of offseason work to improve.

Like the Eagles, Ball St. has a lot of shortcoming on defense. The Cardinals return only five starters and this is an even worse situation since they were at or near the bottom in most significant defensive categories last season. They return just one player on the defensive line so they will get pushed around by the Eagles all night. The biggest void however for Ball State's defense are at the two safety positions where underclassmen will be forced to jump in. All of this should lead to a ton of points Thursday night. 10* Over (137) Eastern Michigan Eagles/(138) Ball St. Cardinals

Game One of this two-game series in Tokyo saw a very low scoring affair that needed extra innings to complete. Felix Hernandez and Brandon McCarthy were both sensational as they allowed one earned run each in 15 combined innings but there is a huge dropoff from the number one starters to the number two starters and on down further. A low scoring game early Wednesday should result in a high scoring game Thursday as the bats have a much better chance of breaking out before heading home.

The Mariners and A's did combine for 15 hits but clutch hitting could not be found as they left a total of 24 on base and this is without a single walk being issued the entire game. We can pretty much guarantee that will not be happening again. Both offenses were very weak last season and much more of the same is expected this year but this total is definitely telling us something. Last season in 19 meetings, only two games had a posted total of 8 or more and both games went over, scoring 24 combined runs.

Bartolo Colon made only two starts this spring, posting a 1-0 record but with that came a 5.40 ERA. He was supposed to make one other start but was scratched due to a blister on his finger which is never good to hear for a pitcher so it will be interesting if that affects him. Colon pitched pretty well for the Yankees last season, posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP covering 26 starts and being an inning eater was his biggest asset. The fact that he is the number two starter in Oakland tells you something about the rotation as a whole.

Jason Vargas was again unspectacular last season as he posted a 4.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 32 starts while going 10-13 for the Mariners. He did finish tied for third in the American League in shutouts and fourth in complete games so while the ability is there, it is rarely there. Spring training needs to be taken with a grain of salt when it comes to pitchers but he worked a total of 8.2 innings, going 0-1 with a 12.46 ERA with six strikeouts in three starts. Look for him to get hit hard again. 10* Over (995) Seattle Mariners/(996) Oakland A's

The Giants are coming off their second straight playoff game where they were outgained but still pulled off the win as turnovers once again played a big role. It was unfortunate the way the 49ers season ended but you still have to give credit to the Giants as the defensive intensity was once again where it needed to be as the unit is playing its best football of the season. Now comes a pretty big test for the defense and it will be a difficult challenge to slow down the Patriots offense.

New England was fortunate as well as a missed Baltimore field goal puts the Patriots back into the Super Bowl. The offense was very average as they gained just 330 total yards but that came against ones of the league's best defenses. This snapped a string of seven straight overs for the Patriots and the low scoring game will add to the value going forward. The total for the game against the Ravens was just a few points lower than what this one is and it should prove to be not enough of an adjustment based on the matchups.

Looking back at the 2008 Super Bowl showed a very low scoring game with a higher total. The next meeting did not take place until this season when New York and New England squared off in Week Nine. That game also went under the total but looking at the final score alone will not tell the true story as the teams scored all 44 points in the second half as the first half resulted in a scoreless tie. The Super Bowl total is no doubt skewed toward the over but it is not enough to make a difference here.

While both defenses picked it up in their respective championship games, these units should be less effective against these opposing offenses. Last week, the Giants played against the 26th ranked total offense during the regular season while the Patriots played against 15th ranked total offense during the regular season. The Patriots finished second in total offense while the Giants finished eighth in total offense to it certainly will be tougher this time around for both sides.

Both teams are on winning streaks and both have played high scoring games in the past as New England is 13-4 to the over after three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons while New York is 9-1 to the over after three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Giants are 11-2 to the over against teams outscoring opponents by six or more ppg on the season and under head coach Tom Coughlin, they are 9-1 to the over against teams averaging 29 or more ppg. Also, the Patriots are 9-1 to the over against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. 10* Over (101) New York Giants/(102) New England Patriots

Orlando is coming off a big road win last night at Portland as it shot lights out, hitting 58.6 percent from the floor including 59.3 percent from long range. Seven players scored in double-figures but don't expect a repeat of this tonight. This was its most complete game of the season and for a team that has struggled with consistency, putting together consecutive solid efforts on the offensive end is a stretch. The Magic have gone over in their first two games of this roadtrip which presents value on the under here.

Golden St. played on Tuesday against Miami and the Warriors came away with a win in overtime. That victory snapped a five-game losing streak and despite scoring 111 points, the offense was not very good again as Golden St. shot just 40 percent from the floor and it was held to 96 points in regulation. The Warriors have now gone seven straight games with 96 points or fewer on offense during regulation, averaging only 90 ppg over that stretch. The Miami game went over but it was under at the end of regulation.

The times of Golden St. being a run and gun team have gone as it has averaging just over 189 ppg in its games this season. That is part of the reason we are seeing a total as low as it has taken the linesmakers a while to catch up. The Warriors are 6-3 to the under this season including five of six staying under at home. Orlando is 7-3 to the under this season even though the last two have gone over so it too has been keeping games low, averaging just above 188 ppg in its games.

Because of the recent results, the value is on the low side here and both teams have solid histories in this situation. Orlando is 24-8 to the under in its last 32 games with a total between 180 and 189.5 points including 13-4 to the under on the road. Golden St. meanwhile is 13-3 to the under in its last 16 games coming off a win as a home underdog while going 18-6 to the under in its last 24 home games. This total is over 20 points less than the last meeting and it is this much lower for a reason. 10* Under (509) Orlando Magic/(510) Golden St. Warriors

Pittsburgh is playing in the Compass Bowl for a second straight season. The Panthers defeated Kentucky in a low scoring game and I see another similar result to that. This is a pretty average offense coming in as Pittsburgh is 83rd in total offense and 69th in scoring offense and word is that the coaches plan on slowing things down even more and there will be more on that later. The Panthers total defense is ranked 40th overall and they have the personnel to slow down SMU.

The Mustangs incorporate a run and shoot offense under head coach June Jones but it is a wounded unit. Quarterback J.J. McDermott was decent as he is ranked 33rd in total offense but just 72nd in passing efficiency. He has two great receivers at his disposal but SMU lost running back Zach Line 10 games into the season after he put up 1,256 rushing yards and that is a big loss. The Mustangs defense finished 37th overall so this is a solid unit that held some tough C-USA offenses in check.

Pittsburgh lost head coach Todd Graham as he took the head coaching job at Arizona St. Defensive coordinator Keith Patterson takes over the head coaching duties for this game while quarterbacks coach Todd Dodge takes over as the interim offensive coordinator. They are both on the same page as they have come out with what their game plan is going to be and it favors a low scoring game. "We'll be a little more ball control, I think you will see that on Saturday. We will be a little bit different in our approach," Patterson said.

"We're going to try and take time off the clock and not necessarily be methodical in the way we do things, but ball control is going to be a little bit more of who we are," he said. "Our philosophy will be, 'Hey, let's play great defense and punting the football sometimes is not a bad play.' That is kind of the plan we will try to employ this Saturday." Dodge believes that its best chance to win is to possess the ball and keep the Mustangs offense off the field. He said he plans on using the short passing game.

Dodge said he has trimmed the play sheet to emphasize what quarterback Tino Sunseri does best. "I am a believer in 'less is more,' " he said. Pittsburgh is 14-4 to the under in its last 18 games away from home against teams averaging 250 or more passing ypg while going 11-2 to the under in its last 13 games coming off one or more straight overs. The Mustangs meanwhile are 17-6 to the under in their last 23 games away from home against teams completing 58 percent or more of their passes. 10* Under (265) SMU Mustangs/(266) Pittsburgh Panthers

We have a rather big number here but we have a lot of solid contrarian angles to work with. It has been rare for both teams to see a number this high as West Virginia has had a total of 62 or higher only once while Clemson has had a total of 62 or higher only twice. Combined they went 0-3 to the under and only one of those games, Clemson and Wake Forest, was even close to cashing the over. This brings in our first contrarian angle as those three unders are actually keeping this number lower than it should be.

Recent results are also playing into this total. Clemson has gone under in its last five games and that brings up a situational angle as explained later. The thing about it is, the last four games in that run stayed under by 3.5 points, 4 points, 3.5 points and 5.5 points so they were very close to going over. West Virginia meanwhile has stayed under in each of its last three games and while they were a little off, the last game stayed under by just a point in the contest with South Florida.

Both of these offenses have potential to put up big numbers and put up big points. Combined, the Mountaineers and Tigers average over 68 ppg while putting up a total of 901.1 ypg which proves big numbers are more than capable. West Virginia put up 30 or more points in eight of 12 games while Clemson did so in nine of 13 games. Obviously getting those together will likely cash a ticket so it will likely come down to the defenses and how resistant they will be.

Together, West Virginia and Clemson are allowing 52.4 ppg but that average is skewed. The Tigers have allowed 30 or more points in six of 13 games including five of their last seven games while the Mountaineers have allowed 30 or more points five times. Those are fewer than we would like but overall, Clemson is 62nd in scoring defense while West Virginia is 63rd in scoring defense. The offenses faced has played a big part in this as both teams have gone against offenses much worse than what they will face Wednesday.

Clemson's under run puts it into a solid situation as we play the over in the second half of the season with teams that are coming off four or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams that are allowing between 21 and 28. This situation is 34-7 (82.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. West Virginia meanwhile is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest so both sides have solid angles on their side for this contrarian total play. 10* Over (261) West Virginia Mountaineers/(262) Clemson Tigers

Nevada brings in a pretty solid defense this season as it is ranked 52nd overall and 58th in scoring but those averages are definitely skewed. The Wolf Pack allowed 14 points or fewer four times and seven points or fewer three times but those games came against offenses ranked 81st, 113th, 130th and 107th in scoring offense, with those latter three being the three games of allowing seven points or less. Southern Mississippi brings in the 14th ranked scoring offense so this will be a test.

Southern Mississippi brings a defense that is even better as it is ranked 31st overall and 29th in scoring but even its numbers are skewed based on the competition. A game against Southeastern Louisiana helped as the Golden Eagles allowed just 285 yards and six points while the other big difference was a game with Memphis where they allowed only 181 total yards and seven points. Memphis finished 116th in total offense and 115th in scoring offense. Nevada is fifth and 31st in total and scoring offense respectively.

Both defenses also played more solid at home than on the road as combined, they gave up a total of 833 ypg and 60.7 ppg. Those points are right around where this total sits but again, some of those games on each side came against some very average offensive teams. The offensive numbers on both sides also decrease away from home but they are still potent as the average yardage is over 900 ypg and over 63 ppg. Many even more important is that there is balance on both sides between the run and pass.

There is something about this bowl game that produces a ton of points and a lot of that can be based on the distractions that surround the game. Only once in nine years has the game finished with fewer points than what this year's total is and while the history may seem meaningless, the conference affiliations have a lot to do with it as well. The average total points scored in this game is just shy of 81 and while the over will be a very popular public play, it is the way to go once again with this matchup.

Both teams fall into a solid situation based on results of the offenses. We play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with two teams that are averaging 440 or more ypg on the season after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 37-10 (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Southern Mississippi is 15-5 to the over its last 20 games against teams averaging 21 or more ppg while Nevada is 11-5 to the over in its last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in its last game. 10* Over (213) Nevada Wolf Pack/(214) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

We won with the Under last Thursday with Cleveland and Pittsburgh and we will once again go that route this Thursday. This is another less than glamorous matchup but we are getting exceptional value with the total as this number is inflated because of recent results. Atlanta is coming off a game against Carolina where 54 total points were scored, which sent the Over. It should be noted that the Falcons went Under in their previous eight games before this past Sunday.

Jacksonville is also coming off a high-scoring game this past Sunday as it and Tampa Bay combined to put up 55 points which was well over the posted total of 41.5. It was the second straight Over for the Jaguars and that is rare for a team with an above average defense and an anemic offense. Prior to the game against the Chargers that had 52 points scored, Jacksonville had gone Under in its previous five games. This is another example of recent results affecting future numbers.

To be blunt, the Jaguars offense is horrendous. They are ranked 28th in scoring offense and dead last in total offense, averaging 14.8 ppg and 260.1 ypg respectively. The 41-point performance against the Buccaneers was the highest of the season and it was the first time the Jaguars scored more than 20 points all season so it shows what an aberration it actually was. They did put up a season high 325 total yards but even that is pathetic and does not correlate to the 41-points scored.

Atlanta has a strong defense that is ranked 13th overall and 11th in points allowed. The unit did struggle against Carolina as it allowed 416 total yards, the third most yards given up this season but the Panthers offense is fifth in the NFL overall. The two other times the Falcons allowed over 400 yards on defense came against Green Bay and Philadelphia and they are ranked third and fourth respectively in total offense so facing strong offenses has hurt the Falcons. We won't have to worry about that here.

The Jaguars are ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense and seventh in scoring defense so they have been very strong. The Falcons are a middle of the pack offense and they will not be able to name their score here like they have done a couple times this season. Jacksonville is 6-0 to the Under in its six road games this season while Atlanta is 7-0 to the Under in its last seven home games coming off a road win and 7-0 to the Under in its seven games this season coming off any win. 10* Under (301) Jacksonville Jaguars/(302) Atlanta Falcons

Cleveland is playing its third straight divisional game and it will come against a third straight strong defense as the Bengals are sixth in total defense, the Ravens are third in total defense and now come the Steelers which are first in total defense. This is a tough stretch for the Brown which are ranked 30th in the NFL in total offense and have scored more than 20 points only once this season. Conversely, Cleveland has scored two touchdowns or fewer in six of its last seven games.

The Steelers have won three straight games since that brutal loss to Baltimore Sunday night and they are coming off their second highest point total on offense this season as they put up 35 points on the Bengals. The other two times Pittsburgh scored 30 or more points this season, it followed it up with unders in the next game both times. That high point total can lead to value next time out and I feel we are getting it here even though this is the lowest posted total for the Steelers since Week One.

Because it is in the high 30's and because this is a nationally televised game (for some), the over is going to be the popular play. While the Steelers defense is ranked tops on the league, the Browns have a defense that is pretty good in its own right as the Browns are ranked eighth in the NFL in total defense as well as eighth in scoring defense. Granted Pittsburgh put up 35 points on a strong Cincinnati defense but it was due to short fields as well as a punt return for a score. The Steelers had just 295 yards of total offense.

Cleveland did manage 20 points against Cincinnati two games back but it was skewed as it put up just 274 total yards. It was worse last week with just 10 points and 233 total yards and now it only gets tougher. The Browns have put up more than 300 yards only four times this season while the Steelers defense has given up more than 300 yards only five times with two of those coming against Baltimore. If everything holds true to form, which it should, this one has a low scoring game written all over it.

Thursday night games have had some special edges over the years as the home teams have dominated for the most part and we have seen a lot of low scoring games within these parameters. As a matter of fact we play the under in Thursday night games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. This situation is already 4-0 to the under this season and over the last three seasons it is a perfect 16-0 to the under. This gets extended after this week. 10* Under (101) Cleveland Browns/(102) Pittsburgh Steelers

Both Oakland and San Diego were involved in very high scoring games this past weekend and I feel that has added a tremendous amount of value in this total for Thursday night. The Chargers and Packers game finished with 83 points while the Raiders and Broncos game finished with 62 points as both contests easily went above the number. Those results along with this being a lone televised game on Thursday has forced the linesmakers to inflate the total here.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers threw three more interceptions in the Chargers loss to the Packers on Sunday, giving him an NFL-worst 14 on the season. He also threw the ball 46 times but a lot of that was due to playing from behind for almost the entire game. In all, he's attempted 40 or more passes four times this season and the Chargers have lost three of those games. Expect a more balanced approach this week as San Diego is now well aware that throwing the ball is not the recipe for winning.

Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer threw the ball 35 times and while he looked better than the previous game, he cannot be slinging it around so much and expect to win. The absence of running back Darren McFadden has been huge as the balanced attack has been disrupted but Oakland still has Michael Bush in the backfield and he is a solid player. Bush played extensively against the Chargers last season, rushing for 199 yards in the two games and Oakland will use that weapon again.

These teams have not seen a total this high since December of 2005 when it closed at 51. Last season, the two meetings has O/U's of 44 and 44.5 so we are seeing a sharp increase since then as well. Prior to the Packers game, San Diego had been 3-0 to the under in its home games this season and going back further, the Chargers are 7-0 to the under in their last seven games as a home favorite. Oakland meanwhile is 7-3 to the under in its last 10 games following a double-digit home loss.

Even better the Raiders are 16-2 to the under in their last 18 road games coming off a divisional home loss while San Diego is 9-1 to the under in its last 10 home games in the second of consecutive home games. Also we play the under with road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 114-65 (63.7 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (107) Oakland Raiders/(108) San Diego Chargers

Chicago is coming off a bye week after winning in London against the Buccaneers, a game that stayed under the total. Philadelphia meanwhile is coming off consecutive unders as it defeated both Washington and Dallas and it was the defense that kept those games low scoring as the Eagles allowed a combined 20 points in those games. With the recent results showing lower scoring games, we are getting some value with this total along with the fact we have seen four straight Monday night games cash in under.

The Eagles are averaging 25.6 ppg against defenses that allow an average of 21.9 ppg which is right around what the Bears are allowing so Philadelphia should have no issues getting to that number or above once again. Chicago has also done well as it is averaging 24.3 ppg against defenses that are allowing 22.9 ppg and Philadelphia is allowing 21.7 ppg so again, it is well within range. These are important stats because both offenses have averaged more ppg against defenses that have yielded less points overall.

Chicago and Philadelphia are the only two teams in the NFL that are averaging 4.8 ypc or more on offense and allowing 5.0 ypc or more on defense. Combined, the offenses are averaging 10.6 ypc gained and the defenses are averaging 10.2 ypc allowed. Those are very significant averages and while the thought of easy rushing on both sides signals a shorter game because of a running clock, it actually works out the opposite as these rushing edges open up the entire offenses on both sides.

As far as matchups go, the rushing games have been talked about and both teams will keep the chains moving with successful rushing attacks. In the passing game, Jay Cutler has not thrown for a lot of yardage but he should have success here even the Eagles have not given up a lot of yards through the air. Philadelphia is allowing just 212.3 ypg, which is top 10 but it is allowing 7.4 ypa which is 17th in the league. Also, they have given up 12 touchdowns in 18 redzone trips, and that puts them at the bottom of the league.

On the other side, Chicago is allowing 7.0 ypa and it is allowing the 10th highest quarterback rating to opposing signal callers. Their problem is with the safeties as they have given up too many big plays in the middle and while they have started to cheat back, it opens up even more holes for Michael Vick. He has had only two bad games this season against the Bills and Giants and he is coming off his best game of the season which means confidence going forward. Expect a lot of points tonight. 10* Over (431) Chicago Bears/(432) Philadelphia Eagles

We had a bad read in Game Two as the bats did not come to life as expected. Through two games, St. Louis and Texas are averaging only 4.0 rpg. The last World Series that had an average like this was the 1963 Dodgers/Yankees World Series that finished with an average of just 4.0 rpg. Considering that the Cardinals led the National League in runs scored with 762 this season, and the Rangers ranked third in the American League with 855 runs scored, we will see an increase.

The change in venue will aide the offense as well. First off, the designated hitter now comes into play so that is one more big bat into each lineup and one pitcher out of each lineup. Playing in American League parks is a different mentality as small ball is taken out of the equation. Changing these venues makes a bigger difference as during the regular season, Busch Stadium tied for the 21st most home runs at 1.6 per game while the Ballpark in Arlington saw the most with 2.8 home runs per game.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first World Series in 37 years in which neither team scored more than three runs in either of the first two games. It's time for some runs.

Kyle Lohse has a 3.41 ERA on the road in 17 starts which is very solid but two factors go against him here. In two starts this postseason, he is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA and going back further he is 0-4 with a 5.09 ERA in his career in the postseason. Even this is skewed as he started in the bullpen where was solid. The Rangers lineup punished right-handed pitching to the tune of a .460 slugging percentage in 201l and Lohse facing them in Arlington is not good as he has a 6.75 ERA there in five starts and a relief appearance.

He squares off against Matt Harrison who will be making his first home start of the postseason. He pitched well at home this season with a 3.87 ERA but his 1.34 WHIP is definitely a concern. What else is a concern is the time off he has had as well as pitching under the lights. He 7-2 with a 2.24 ERA in 13 daytime starts but he went just 8-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 19 nighttime outings. The Cardinals are hitting lefties very well now and the over is 6-1 in their last seven road games against left-handed starters. 10* Over (955) St. Louis Cardinals/(956) Texas Rangers

We won with the Cardinals last night as pitching took center stage with just five total runs scored on only 12 total hits, six by each team. I expect the bats to be more involved tonight as these two potent offenses cannot be kept down long. As a matter of fact, in their respective League Championship Series, every under was followed up with an over, going a perfect 3-0 in that scenario. Tonight's pitchers are more than capable of throwing solid games again but I foresee the opposite as the matchups do in fact favor the offense.

In the ALCS, Texas and Detroit scored five runs in Game One and came back with 10 runs in Game Two. It will be up to Colby Lewis to help the Rangers avoid a 2-0 deficit and while both of his starts in the playoffs have stayed under, he is coming off a rough outing in his last game, allowing four runs in 5.2 innings. He has struggled for the most part since mid-August, posting a 5.87 ERA over his last nine starts and to no surprise, six of those have gone over the total. Texas has averaged 5.6 rpg in his 34 starts this year.

It is pretty well documented once the media caught on that Jaime Garcia is a much better pitcher at home than on the road. His ERA at home is over two runs better than it is on the road and while he has not allowed more than three runs in his two playoff starts, his last one could have been a bad one. He went just 4.2 innings and while he allowed just one run, he gave up seven hits so he was fortunate more damage was not done. 11 of 17 starts at home have been quality starts but only four of his last eight have resulted in that.

The over is 13-3-2 in the Rangers last 18 games following a loss while the over is 4-0 in St. Louis' last four games after allowing two runs or less in its last game which signals big bats for the opposition. As far as pitching matchups, the Cardinals are 4-0-1 to the over in their last five games against right-handed starters while the Rangers are 5-2-3 to the over in their last 10 games against left-handed starters. Both teams are hitting above .270 against those respective arms on the season. 10* Over (953) Texas Rangers/(954) St. Louis Cardinals

Tonight's game has the makings of a shootout. Both Florida International and Arkansas St. have explosive offensive units that have big play capabilities that will be facing defenses that have little resistance to stop them. Both teams are coming off unders in their most recent games nine days ago and that helps us out with the value as does the season long results. Arkansas St. is 5-1 to the under on the year while the Golden Panthers have hit the over only once in their last five games.

The Red Wolves are 29th in the country in total offense, averaging 441.2 ypg and the majority of that success comes in the passing game where they are averaging 303.5 ypg, good for 15th in the country. Quarterback Ryan Aplin, who has thrown for 1,646 yards this season, is also 15th in the country in total offense and he is completing 66 percent of his passes. His main target is wide receiver Dwayne Frampton, who also averages 7.8 catches per game while averaging 101 ypg, 24th in the nation.

The Golden Panthers defense has been shredded this season, giving up 245.3 ypg which is 87th in the nation. This is the best passing offense is has seen with Duke coming in a close second and the Blue Devils poured 335 passing yards on them two games back. Florida International shut down Aplin last season but this is a much better unit this time around that is a year more experienced. "No one's really slowed them down, let alone stopped them," FIU head coach Mario Cristobal said of Arkansas St.'s passing game.

On the other side, the Golden Panthers are 53rd in total offense and 43rd in passing offense and they possess one of the games most exciting wide receivers in T.Y. Hilton who is averaging 106.8 ypg, good for 12th best in the nation. He is coming off one of his most productive games of the season against Duke and that was with a gimpy hamstring but he is now back to full health. Florida International has put up at least 27 points in each of its last three games.

Arkansas St. possesses a better defense than the Golden Panthers but the liability is with the passing defense and it goes up against quarterback Wesley Carroll which leads the Sun Belt Conference in passing efficiency. The Over is 13-3 in the Golden Panthers last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record and the over is 6-0 in their last six road games against teams averaging 425 pr more ypg. The Over is 5-1 in the Red Wolves last six games as a home favorite. 10* Over (301) Florida International Golden Panthers/(302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

Three of those first four games of this series have gone over but this could easily be 3-1 to the under as two games went into extra innings and finished on a three-run home run and a grand slam. The first meeting between these two pitchers had the same posted total and we saw six runs scored in regulation before Nelson Cruz ended the game with that walk-off grand slam. I feel that we will once again see a similar pitching game as this Game Five is pivotal for this series overall.

Max Scherzer has been great so far in the postseason as he has tossed two quality starts against the Yankees and Rangers and most impressively, both came on the road. His road ERA has come down because of it and the way he looked in his last outing, he is looking like a postseason veteran. Facing the Rangers has not been an issue as three of his four starts this season have been quality outings and in seven lifetime starts he has a 3.56 ERA and the contrarian in us goes with the under despite his last three starts against the Rangers going over and averaging 13.7 rpg.

His counterpart is Derek Holland who lasted just 2.2 innings in his first start of this series as a three-run homerun from Ryan Raburn ended his outing way too soon. The good news is that he tossed just 76 pitches so he should be fairly fresh here pitching on normal rest. He allowed three runs or fewer in his previous seven start with five of those being quality outings with the other two falling just an inning short of quality status. As we look contrarian here as well, the Rangers have unloaded with 7.8 rpg scored in Holland's starts but things will be different tonight. 10* Under (921) Detroit Tigers/(922) Texas Rangers

The first two games of this series easily went over the total as Games One and Two both had 15 runs scored in each. While we have a lower total to go after for Game Three, I feel the value is on the under based on those two recent games. The starters combined for just 18.1 innings in those first two games so the bullpen was busy but the pitching matchup for Wednesday favors long innings and a low scoring game.

The Brewers go with Yovani Gallardo and he has been on a sensational run. He has tossed six straight quality starts including the last four where he allowed just one run in each game. The last two took place against Arizona in the NLDS and both of those stayed under. While those two games were at home, pitching in St. Louis is a non-issue. His playoff experience trumps everything and he posted a 3.32 ERA in three starts at Busch Stadium this season with two of those being quality outings. All three of those games went under the number.

Chris Carpenter pitched an absolute gem when it was needed the most as he outdueled Roy Halladay for a 1-0 win in the deciding game of the NLDS. He tossed a three-hit shutout and heads into the NLCS with a ton of momentum and confidence. His last three starts have been on the road but he has been great at home with a 3.05 ERA in 17 starts with. This includes two quality outings in two tries against the Brewers where he posted a 1.06 ERA covering 17 innings in those two games. Both of those games went under the total.

The move back to St. Louis should help as well as the under is 15-4-3 in the last 22 meetings in St. Louis. 10* Under (911) Milwaukee Brewers/(912) St. Louis Cardinals

Two 3-1 teams square off this week with the Buccaneers traveling to San Francisco in what has the makings of an ugly game. Both teams went over their totals last week which sets up good value this week. The 49ers and Eagles scored 47 points which eclipsed the total by just over a field goal but it took three late San Francisco touchdowns in the final quarter and a half to get it done. Prior to that, the 49ers scored only 13 points against Cincinnati and that is more the norm of this offense.

San Francisco is averaging 28.5 ppg at home but that number is severely skewed. The 49ers scored 33 points against Seattle but 14 of those points came in the final four minutes of the game and both were by way of special teams returns by Ted Ginn. They scored 24 points in a losing effort against the Cowboys but 14 of those points were because of a short field as they consisted of two drives totaling 77 yards. Despite scoring 57 points, the 49ers managed a mere 207.5 ypg on offense.

Tampa Bay is a better team on offense as it is averaging 352.8 ypg through four games. However the Buccaneers are averaging just 21 ppg in those contests as they have been held to seven field goals as the redzone offense remains an issue. Tampa Bay's redzone scoring percentage is just 35.7 percent which is 25th in the NFL. That will hurt even more this week as the 49ers have the best redzone percentage defense in the NFL at 28.6 percent. Expect to see more Tampa Bay field goals.

The Buccaneers defense is a bend don't break unit as well as the yare allowing 368 ypg but just 19.2 ppg which is ninth fewest in the NFL. It comes down to the redzone as well as Tampa Bay is seventh in redzone percentage defense at 38.5 percent. San Francisco is middle of the pack in redzone offense at 50 percent but they are 18th in redzone chances with just three per game. Third down conversion defense is also big as the Buccaneers are seventh and the 49ers are fifth, allowing just 33.3 percent and 32.7 percent respectively.

Both teams have combined to go 6-2 to the over this season and that is no doubt helping us here with value on the total. The 49ers fall into a great situation on a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with teams coming off an road win by three points or less, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 27-7 (79.4 percent) to the under since 1983. This one is for you if you like defense. 10* Under (421) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(422) San Francisco 49ers

Three of the first four games of this series have gone over including both games in Philadelphia to start the series but this one has a different feel and should turn into a pitchers duel. 13 runs were scored in the last 3.5 innings in Game One which was one of those aberrations that takes place when things start to balloon. The under is 22-5 in Phillies last 27 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower so this number is more than manageable.

Chris Carpenter pitched an absolute gem against the Astros on the final day of the season to get the Cardinals into the playoffs. Pitching on three days

We wanted to wait and see the confirmed status of Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo before making a move here. While he is playing, he is far from 100 percent and the whole offense is far from that as well. We are getting some excellent value in this number based on a few factors for the home team. Dallas has gone over the total in both of its games this season with 51 total points being scored in each and that is no doubt being played into this number.

The first two Cowboys games were on the road and the closing numbers were 40.5 and 41 so there is a significant increase here. The return home has a lot to do with it as does the fact this is a Monday night game. Last season the Cowboys went 8-0 to the over in their home games while averaging 58.4 ppg so a lot of those were not even close. That is a big public trend that is going in our favor tonight as the majority of the action will be on the over based on that plus it being a Monday night affair.

The Redskins have split their first two games as far as the total goes with the last game staying under by just a point and a half. The defense has done a great job against two strong offenses in the Giants and Cardinals so facing another potent offense is not a problem. Washington held New York to 315 total yards and Arizona to 324 total yards and its 319.5 ypg allowed is good for 11th best in the NFL through games of Sunday. This is a huge improvement from last season where it finished second to last.

The Cowboys defense was second worst in the NFL last season as far as points allowed and it has not shown much of an improvement through two games this year. However, a lot of the points allowed have been because of short fields as Dallas has allowed just 283 ypg through two games. Granted, the Cowboys have faced a couple of mediocre offenses but it can be fair to say that the Redskins fall right into that group. They have been solid thus far but this is their first road game of the season.

The last meeting in 2010 saw 66 points scored, one of the eight Dallas overs at home but prior to that, the series had four straight unders, averaging only 18.5 ppg. Washington is 5-0 to the under in its last five games after gaining 350 or more total yards in its previous game and going back further is it a perfect 8-0 to the under in its last eight Monday night road games. Expect to see a lot of running from both sides as Dallas protects Romo as much as possible while Washington takes advantage of its solid rushing edge. 10* Under (425) Washington Redskins/(426) Dallas Cowboys

The Giants and Rams both saw their games go over last weekend, part of a number of high scoring contests. This included both Monday night games which typically is a night where the over is bet hard by the public and that is the case here tonight based on offshore reports. The Sunday night nationally televised game had 66 points scored last night which is another typically heavy over bet. Because of this, we get value with the under as the number is overadjusted and that is certainly the case here.

The Giants lost in Washington last Sunday as they allowed 332 yards including 258 yards passing. Rex Grossman actually threw for 305 yards as sack yardage brought the passing total down. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford is capable of putting up similar numbers but he is banged up as are two of his offensive stars. Steven Jackson was injured without contact on a 47-yard touchdown run and Danny Amendola, who led the team with 85 catches last year, suffered a dislocated left elbow. Both are out tonight.

Football Outsiders came up with a "total pressure" rating which basically gives a better idea of how a team gets to the quarterback with it not being solely based on sacks. The Rams were first in the league while the Giants were second in the NFL last season in total pressure and they discovered that total pressure did a better job than just sack total when it came to predicting how many sacks a player would have the following season. The offensive lines could be in for a very long night tonight.

The Rams allowed 237 yards on the ground versus the Eagles in Week One and you can guarantee the Giants the be trying to pound the ball. They had only 75 yards rushing in Week One at Washington and they did not dominate in time of possession and in the trenches. With a struggling passing game, New York needs to rely on its run game with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. That is a clock killer. In the passing game, Hakeem Nicks is banged up as well which could mean even more ball control.

This total opened at 43 and has risen a point and in some cases a point and a half. Because of the public and the Monday night effect, we could see it rise more. St. Louis is 10-2 to the under in its last 12 conference road games under head coach Steve Spagnuolo while the under is 6-1 in the Rams last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Giants are 52-30 to the under in their last 82 games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. 10* Under (227) St. Louis Rams/(228) New York Giants

Mississippi St. has gone over the total in each of its first two games and neither were even close as the Bulldogs went over by 22.5 points against Memphis and over by 18 points against Auburn. The total this week is the lowest yet but it is still overinflated in my opinion based on the recent results. Going back to last season, Mississippi St. has scored 31 or more points in five straight games but those all came against teams that were horrible on defense and that changes on Thursday.

LSU went over its only lone lined game against Oregon as it surpassed the total by nearly two touchdowns. The Tigers managed 40 points in that game but a lot of the scoring came by way of Oregon turnovers and the offense managed only 273 total yards of offense against the Ducks. The Tigers did come back last week by putting up 400 yards of offense but that was against FCS team Northwestern St. the offense is still missing some key components and is far from a potent unit.

The Mississippi St. offensive line is one of the most experienced units on the team, but that group is banged up. Senior center Quentin Saulsberry left Saturday's game with a knee sprain, and senior left tackle James Carmon was carted off the field after a leg injury. Mississippi St. head coach Dan Mullen said neither would need surgery, and that Saulsberry could be ready to play against LSU. Still, both being hobbled is a big blow for the Bulldogs offense that needs to be at full strength to slow down the LSU defense.

This game should be dictated by both defenses. The Bulldogs finished 21st in scoring defense last season and have seven starters back . According to Football Outsiders, against Oregon, LSU had eight drives start in its own territory, and only one of those drives crossed midfield. The Tigers scored 27 points on drives that started in the opponent's territory in the game. Mississippi St.'s defense has faced 26 possessions that started on the opponent's side of the field and only five of those drives crossed midfield.

On the other side, the Tigers also have seven starters back on defense which finished 11th in scoring a season ago. This defense is fast and athletic and will be able to again control the tempo of the game. Both teams fall into a great totals situation. Play on the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning. This situation is 59-24 (71.1%) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (101) LSU Tigers/(102) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a contrarian totals play for Saturday. The first game of this series was a low scoring contest as it finished with six runs and it was even that high because of three runs scored in the eighth inning. We will go the other way tonight based on that and the recent success of the pitchers which is the contrarian basis. The Indians are 1-5-1 to the 'under' in their last seven games but they scored two runs or fewer five times in that stretch so that is helping with that string of low scoring games.

However, Cleveland is 14-6 to the 'over' at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and has a crack at a very hot pitcher tonight. Paul Maholm has been outstanding all season and especially of late as he has not allowed a run in two straight starts covering 13 innings. He tossed seven shutout innings last time out and the last time he went that far into a game without allowing a run, he gave up six runs in his next start. The 'over' is 4-1-1 in Maholm's last six starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

The Indians counter with Carlos Carrasco and he has been just as good, if not better. Over his last two starts, he also did not allow a single run as he tossed 15.1 innings of scoreless ball over that span. Both of those games finished with a 1-0 Indians win. His ERA coming into those games was 5.18 so it is safe to say that he was pitching poorly prior to these last two games and it is doubtful that he has suddenly turned things around. Cleveland is 5-0 to the 'over' in his last five home starts against winning teams. 10* Over (961) Pittsburgh Pirates/(962) Cleveland Indians

As expected, after two very low scoring games, we saw Game Five exceed the total by over 30 points as the 'over' easily cashed. Now that the series has seen its highest scoring game, and for the first time a 100-point effort from a team as well, we will be going back the other way as the series shifts back to Miami. The linesmakers made a pretty big adjustment from the Game Five closing number as their hands were tied and expect the public money to come onto the 'over' based on that last game.

Not only did one team surpass the century mark for the first time in this series, both teams did. Neither team could miss from the floor no matter what defense was thrown at them and this was definitely an aberration based on the first four games but we took advantage of it at the right time. Both offenses are strong and they were due for big games but the defenses have been the deciding factor the majority of the time and we will see those units take over back in Miami.

One thing that did not change on Thursday was the pace of the game and it actually slowed down some. Shots were simply going in, especially from long range where Dallas was 13-19 and Miami was 8-20 and those 21 combined three-pointers were one short of the previous two games combined. The pace of the first four games was close to identical as there were 147, 148, 148 and 148 shot attempts but in Game Six, there were just 139 shots hoisted. There is no need to be concerned about the style of play changing.

This is a must win game for Miami which is their its situation like this in the playoffs as it has yet to be on the brink of elimination. That means the defense will be on display as Miami is 8-1 to the 'under' in its last nine games after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The first and only time it happened in the playoffs, it allowed 75 point to Chicago next time out. Also, history is back as we play the 'under' where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the finals. This situation is 24-5 (82.8%) since 1996. 10* Under (711) Dallas Mavericks/(712) Miami Heat

The 'under' has come in with ease in the first two games of this series in Dallas and that is providing us with excellent value going the other way for Game Five. We are catching the lowest total in this series thus far and based on the bounce, or the zig zag, this game should be able to surpass it. We took the 'under' in Game Three and that easily stayed below the number and the big reason for the play was because of the history of low scoring games in the Finals in this parameter but I feel that finally breaks here.

The two defenses have been playing exceptional as neither offense has been able to get in rhythm at all. The thing is that both teams can score and they do have the capability of putting up big numbers. Both are averaging right around 100 ppg and both are shooting in excess of 47 percent and while we have only seen these percentages once in this series, Game Two, the situation calls for it here. This is the third straight game being played in Dallas and the acclimation will help the offenses of both sides.

LeBron James is coming off a horrible game where he scored just eight points on 3-11 shooting. It is a pretty safe bet that he comes out strong on the offensive end and makes amends. On the other side Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavericks in their comeback but he made only six of 19 shots and was extremely sick with a sinus infection throughout. He finished with 21 points but it was a below average performance and with this being the pivotal Game Five, breakout games from them will also help the offenses around them.

Miami is 10-1 to the 'over' in its last 11 games after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games. On Tuesday, the Heat shot just 14.3 percent from long range but that helps us here as they are 8-0 to the 'over' this season coming off a game where they shot 20 percent or less of their three-pointers. Dallas meanwhile is 10-1 to the 'over' in its last 11 games after allowing 90 points or fewer in two straight games while going 15-5 to the 'over' in its last 20 games following a win of three points or less. 10* Over (709) Miami Heat/(710) Dallas Mavericks

We played the 'over' in Game Two based on value because of the line adjustment from the first game. Now we will go back with the 'under' based on history and more appropriate adjustments that will be made by both teams. The comeback from Dallas on Thursday was a big one for the series and the mentality for both teams which sends this one into an even more defensive-geared situation. Based on history, we should see yet another low scoring game.

Based on the simple bump theory, both teams should have better efforts defensively. In Game One, Miami shot 38.8 percent from the floor while Dallas shot 37.3 percent. In Game Two, Miami hit 46.6 percent from the field while Dallas hit 48 percent. Those differences are huge because the teams combined for 147 shots in Game One and 148 shots in Game Two and if they stay in that same range with attempts in Game Three and the defense brings those shooting percentages down, it stays way 'under'.

I mentioned that there would be an increase in fast break points in Game Two after the teams combined for 19 in the first game and that was the case as they combined for 29 fast break points on Thursday. Those possessions obviously speed up the game and lead to more possessions and points but we should see that number come back down here based on the law of averages. Since 1985 when the series is tied 1-1, the Game Three winner has won the championship all 11 times and that means defense is the key.

History shows this situation to be very low scoring as we play the 'under' in NBA Finals games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. This situation is 22-4 (84.6 percent) since 1996 and is a perfect 5-0 over the last five instances when the closing O/U is in that range. The average score overall is 176.2 ppg in those 26 games. Also, Miami is 18-7 to the 'under' in its last 25 road games when the total is between 185 and 189.5 and 5-1 to the 'under' in its last six games as an underdog. 10* Under (705) Miami Heat/(706) Dallas Mavericks

Game One of this series stayed well 'under' the total, covering by more than 12 points, but Game Two adjustments will be made by the offenses to try and get something going. Both teams shot poorly on Tuesday as Dallas shot 37.3 percent while Miami shot just 38.8 percent and there was a total of only 19 fast break points. Dallas and Oklahoma City averaged 27 fast break points in the last series while Miami and Chicago also averaged 27 fast break points so we should see an increase this time around.

We are catching some solid value here as well as this total has dropped by more than a bucket from the closing O/U from Game One. We have used the zig zag with a lot totals during the postseason because of the adjustments made based on the previous game and a lot of these have come in the way we expected. Both regular season meetings between the Mavericks and Heat went 'over' the total as they scored 201 and 194 points in those games. Also, both Dallas and Miami are 5-3 to the 'over' in their last eight games.

Miami is showing that it is the best defensive team in the NBA as it completely shut down Chicago and did a number on Dallas to open the Finals. The Mavericks lost an eight-point lead in the third quarter as they were held to just 10 points in the final 10 minutes of that period. Prior to that, the Mavericks made six 3-pointers in the first half and just seven shots from inside the arc. They are a much stronger team on offense than what was on display as for the season, they are averaging exactly 100 ppg.

Miami is 14-7 to the 'over' after having won 20 or more of their last 25 games this season while Dallas is 21-11 to the 'over' after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The 'over' is 6-1 in Miami's last seven home games and it is 16-7 to the 'over' in its last 23 home games after having won five or six of their last seven games this season. This has been a good total for Dallas to get in a high scoring game as it is 19-10 to the 'over' this year when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. 10* Over (703) Dallas Mavericks/(704) Miami Heat

The last total we played in this series won as the 'under' came in by 18.5 points in Game Three on Saturday. The game on Monday went 'over' the closing total of 196 by a large amount thanks to overtime although it would have gone 'over' in regulation time as well. That has forced the linesmakers to move this total up once again as it has increased by over a bucket and that is giving us some solid value going the other way once again. We are seeing roughly the same total that stayed 'under' in Game Three.

After a high scoring first half in Game Four, Dallas and Oklahoma City combined for just 89 points in the second half and that was the fourth half in the last three games that has stayed under 100 points and that is the key number we are looking for. Actually those halves all had 92 points or less so they have shown the ability to not only go low but go way low. With the series shifting back to Dallas and Oklahoma St. in a must win spot, will see an emphasis once again on the defensive end.

Offensively, the Thunder started strong and finished weak on Game Four. It seemed like they were ready to roll over their opponent right out of the gate, starting the game on a blistering tear making their first nine shots to jump out to a 18-8 lead in just over four minutes of play. They followed it up in the second quarter making their first 10 shots and entered halftime shooting an astounding 58-percent from the field. That quickly vanished and while defense will be the emphasis, the offense should come out slow again as well.

The last three games have alternated between the 'over' and 'under' and the zig zag theory with totals has held pretty true to form throughout the postseason. We will see it continue in this series as well. The 'under' is 9-3-1 in the Mavericks last 13 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 6-2 in the Thunders last eight games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. These streaks get extended once again. 10* Under (517) Oklahoma City Thunder/(518) Dallas Mavericks

We won with the 'over' in Game One of this series with a reasonable closing number of 194.5. We missed the 'under' in Game Two but will go back with it here. Because of the high scoring game that took place in the first two games, the linesmakers need to keep this number high and it remains five points higher than the opener. Because of that high scoring Game One, they were forced to make a move this much based on the fact the majority of action will be on the 'over' as will be the case again here.

The 'over' has come in four of the five meetings this season but one of those 'overs' would actually have come in 'under' the Game Two total while the one game that did finish 'under', the closing total was right in line with this one. We used a lot of zig-zag scenarios, with totals and not sides, in the first two rounds of the playoffs and the majority of those ended up working out. The Game Two 'under' nearly panned out despite three quarters well into the 50's.

Oklahoma City shot lights out in Game Two, hitting 55.7 percent of its shots. It took only 70 shots however and in the first two games, the teams are averaging just over 73 attempts per game. During the regular season, the Thunder averaged 80.6 shots per game while the Mavericks averaged 78.8 shots per game so these two teams are putting together lengthier possessions in the postseason and if not for the hot shooting by one side in the first two games, we would have seen much lower scoring games.

The 'under' is 8-3-1 in the Mavericks last 12 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 5-2 in the Thunders last seven games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Also we play the 'under' with road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 that are revenging a straight up loss as a favorite, with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 41-17 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Under (509) Dallas Mavericks/(510) Oklahoma City Thunder

We won with the 'over' in Game One of this series with a reasonable closing number of 194.5. Because of the high scoring game that took place, 233 points put on the board, the linesmakers needed to make a huge adjustment for Game Two and this current number is five points higher than the opener. Because of that high scoring Game One, they were forced to make a move this much based on the fact the majority of action will be on the 'over'. There is no doubt it is too big of a move however.

The 'over' has come in three of the four meetings this season but one of those 'overs' would actually have come in 'under' the Game Two total while the one game that did finish 'under', the closing total was right in line with this one. We used a lot of zig-zag scenarios in the first two rounds of the playoffs and the majority of those ended up working out. The big exception was the Atlanta/Orlando series but other than that, we saw a lot of games go back and forth and that was due to total adjustments made.

Speaking of adjustments, we will see some come Game Two from both sides. Namely the defensive side of things. Both teams were able to have a lot of success on the offensive end as three of the four quarters saw 56, 66 and 64 points scored. While both teams shot well, we did not see a ton of attempts. Oklahoma City took only 72 shots while Dallas took only 73 shots and the difference was that the two teams combined for 79 free throw attempts, making 71 of those. We are unlikely to see that again in Game Two.

The 'under' is 8-2-1 in the Mavericks last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 5-1 in the Thunders last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The recent history between the two teams will signal another high scoring game however, there is a big difference and it goes back to the adjustments that will be made as those other meetings did not occur in consecutive games, as this one will. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) Dallas Mavericks

Because of the last two games, we are getting a sensational number with this total in the final game of this series. It is actually the lowest total of the series thus far and the two most recent games that were low scoring are completely affecting it. In my opinion, it has come down way too much as the last two games are not only what should be taken into consideration. Three of the first four games in this series went 'over', all of which had higher totals than what we are seeing on Sunday.

All four of the regular season meetings and the first two games of this playoff series went 'over' and most of those went 'over' rather comfortably. The Game Five result was the first and the Game six result was the second in all 10 meetings between Oklahoma City and Memphis that at least one team didn't score 100 or more points. There was good value on the Game Six 'over' simply because of that but now that it has occurred two times in a row, the value is even greater.

Oklahoma St. played incredible defense in Game Five which was an aberration or a case of Memphis missing shots. In Game Six, it was the Thunder offense that was dismal. After making his first two shots of the game, Kevin Durant finished the night shooting 3-14 from the field for just 11 points. What was worse was Durant taking nine 3-pointers in the game and making only one. Now that both of those occurrences have taken place, we are unlikely to see either happening again meaning more offense on both sides.

Oklahoma St. fits the mold perfectly for it to make this one a high scoring affair. The Thunder are 8-1 to the 'over' after a loss by 10 points or more this season and an even more impressive 16-3 to the 'over' after scoring 85 points or less over the last three seasons, averaging 202.4 ppg in those 18 games. Meanwhile Memphis is 5-0 to the 'over' in its last five games following a win while going 7-2 to the 'over' in its last nine games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Over (753) Memphis Grizzlies/(754) Oklahoma City Thunder

After the last game of this series went 'under' I would normally be taking a hard look at the 'over' for this game but there are important factors that are signaling another low scoring game. First and foremost, this is a must win game for Atlanta and the Hawks are not a strong team offensively as they are averaging only 94.1 ppg on the season which is third lowest in the NBA. That means in order for Atlanta to force a Game Seven. It is going to have to get it done with defense and it should be up to the challenge.

With the last game not surpassing the number, the total tends to be adjusted next time out and while that is the case here, it is a rather small adjustment. The total currently is at 179 in a few places which is the highest and surprisingly, it is the highest of the three games that have been played in Atlanta. Certainly not by much but considering the first two games of this series in Atlanta went 'over' one would think this number would be adjusted further to take those games into account but it has not.

The Bulls defense has really stepped things up. They have allowed 83 points or fewer in three of the first games in this series and they have won all three of those. They allowed 103 and 100 points in the other two games and those ended up as losses so in order for Chicago to avoid a Game Seven, even though it would be at home, it must clamp down on defense once again. The last game of this series stayed 'under' by a bucket but it could have been a lot more as it was skewed by a 53-point first quarter.

Even though the first two games of this series in Atlanta went 'over', the Hawks are 7-2 to the 'under' in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record and the 'under' is 19-6 in their last 25 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 22-10 to the 'under' this season after allowing 85 or fewer points and it is 34-18 to the 'under' in its last 42 games coming off an 'under' in its previous game. Playing with a day of rest, the Bulls are on a 36-16 'under' run while the Hawks are on an 8-2 'under' run. 10* Under (741) Chicago Bulls/(742) Atlanta Hawks

The last game finished with 192 points in regulation and had it not gone into overtime, the 'under' would have come in. People now see the 256 total points scored and they will surely be all over a high scoring game once again. Also, the Game Four scoring has skewed the overall averages, inflating them to the point where they cannot be looked at. Even the Game Three scoring is skewed because of the overtime even though that game stayed below the total.

With the 'over' hitting on Monday, that made it eight of the last nine meetings the 'over' has hit, including seven of eight played this season. Every one of those games has seen each team score at least 100 points and the linesmakers have had no choice but to boost this number up because of the large amount of action that will continue to come in on the 'over'. The total has gone up three points since the closing O/U from Game One and that is a big jump, even with what we have seen witnessed in this season series thus far.

We played the 'under' in Game Two and all things considered, it was a bad break that it did not hit as going into the fourth quarter, only 144 points were on the board but the teams erupted for 69 points in the final period which carried it 'over'. What this tells us is that three straight games in this series could easily have gone 'under' yet two of the three went 'over'. Contrarian thinking is saying that despite the breaks going for the high scoring games, the 'under' is the play once again here.

This is part of the zig zag theory that is based on totals as we go against the outcome of the previous game and we also have a contrarian situations that comes into play based on recent results. Oklahoma City is 10-1 to the 'under' in its last 11 home games after allowing 100 or more points in four straight games. Also, the 'under' is 5-0 in Oklahoma City's last five games after it scored 125 or more points in its previous game so it has not been a team that has carried offensive momentum forward. 10* Under (739) Memphis Grizzlies/(740) Oklahoma City Thunder

With the series heading back to Chicago, I expect to see a very low scoring game in this pivotal Game Five. The 'over' came through in both games in Atlanta and because of that, we are getting value in the 'under' for this game. The highest scoring game of the series was in Game One and the linesmakers were forced to push the number up in Game Two where the 'under' was successfully played. This is a similar situation where they had to make an adjustment and it is simply too much.

This is the highest total of the series so far and a lot of that has to do with the fact that three of the four games have gone 'over'. This has been a rarity for the Hawks as they went 'under' in five straight games against Orlando in their last series and going back further they were 13-3 to the 'under' in their previous 16 games. This is because of a defense that is underrated as Atlanta has held its opponents to fewer than 100 points in 16 of its last 20 games, including 10 games of fewer than 90 points.

The Bulls defense meanwhile is one of the best in the NBA. After allowing the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA during the regular season. Chicago is allowing just 42.9 percent from the floor during the playoffs which is actually lower than its regular season percentage allowed. At home the Bulls defense is even better. After allowing 103 points in Game One, Chicago responded with just 73 points allowed in Game Two and after giving up 100 points in Game Four, I expect a very similar outcome here.

The Bulls have tightened their games up following a big loss as they are 10-1 to the 'under' revenging a loss of 10 points or more this season including a perfect 7-0 to the 'under' revenging a double-digit road loss while Atlanta is 5-0 to the 'under' in its last five games after a double-digit win. The Hawks meanwhile are 20-8 to the 'under' in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 22-9 to the 'under' in its 31 games this season against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (733) Atlanta Hawks/(734) Chicago Bulls

We won with the 'under' in Game Two and we will once again go back to the 'under' for Game Four. Game One of this series went 'over' the total and it wasn't even close as Atlanta and Chicago surpassed the number by 20 points. The closing number on Monday was 178 and the number went up by a bucket for Game Two and while it isn't a huge increase, it was enough to provide some value. The game snuck 'over' on Friday and while the number has not gone up much, any increase is on our side.

After scoring 103 points in Game One, Atlanta has not been as successful on offense as the Bulls defense has clamped down as expected. After shooting 51.8 percent in the opening game, the Hawks shot 33.8 percent in Game Two. Atlanta hit a respectable 47.1 percent on Game Three and while it was still held to 82 points, Chicago knows it must to a better job on the defensive end. Chicago is allowing under 43 percent shooting on the season and we will see a better effort here.

The Bulls are shooting 43.5 percent in this series which is lower than their season average and that should continue against the Atlanta defense that has been solid the entire playoffs. The Hawks have been a solid defending team all season and they have allowed 100 points only once in nine playoff games and have allowed more than 90 points in only three other occasions. Atlanta is now 3-1 to the 'under' in its home playoff games and is 8-1 to the 'under' in its last nine home games overall.

When the competition steps up, both teams have played more lower scoring games as Chicago is 24-13 to the 'under' this season when playing a team with a winning record while the Hawks are 30-15 to the 'under' when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Also, the Bulls are 22-9 to the 'under' after allowing 85 points or less this season while Atlanta is 30-17 to the 'under' after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. 10* Under (727) Chicago Bulls/(728) Atlanta Hawks

Boston is against the wall now and after allowing the Heat to put up 99 and 102 points in the first two games, the way to get back into this series is with defense. The Celtics are allowing 91.3 ppg on the season so those two efforts were certainly not what they had in mind. Returning home is a start as the Celtics are giving up just 91.2 ppg on their home floor and in the two home meetings against the Heat, they gave up 80 and 82 points as both games stayed well below the number.

The first two meetings in this second round series have gone 'over' and because of that, we are getting some solid value. Game One had a closing total of 179.5 while Game Two had a closing total of 181.5 and for Game Three, the number has been pushed even further. We are seeing an increase of just a point but that still creates value and the change in venue adds to that. The Celtics and Heat went 'under' in three of the four regular season meetings which needs to be taken into consideration as well.

Miami is 8-3 to the 'over' this season when it is an underdog but eight of those games came against the Western Conference. The offensive output is what we need to be concerned about and the Heats scored 97 points or fewer in eight of those games including all three within the conference. They were never underdogs against Boston which makes this the first instance of the season so the offensive inconsistency in these situations along with the low scoring in Boston help our cause here.

I mentioned that the change of venue helps our value and that is due to Boston being 11-2 to the 'under' in home playoff games over the last two years including 2-0 to the 'under' this season. Also, the Celtics are 17-4-1 to the 'under' in their last 22 games as a favorite. Meanwhile the Heat are 22-13 to the 'under' after a win by 10 points or more this season including 9-3 to the 'under' in their last 12 games. Also, the 'under' is 4-0 in Miami's last four games after it scored 100 or more points in its previous game. 10* Under (723) Miami Heat/(724) Boston Celtics

Game One of this series went 'over' the total and it wasn't even close as Atlanta and Chicago surpassed the number by 20 points. The closing number on Monday was 178 and the number has gone up by a bucket for Game Two and while it isn't a huge increase, it is enough to provide some value in what should be a totally different game this time around. This takes the zig zag theory into play and both teams had similar results in their first round series that should make for a lower scoring game on Wednesday.

Game One was just the second of seven playoff games for the Hawks that went 'over' the total. This Game Two is set up the same way from their Game Two in the first round against Orlando. In that opener, the Hawks won while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor. In the next game, Atlanta shot just 39.5 percent from the floor and scored only 82 points, 21 fewer than in its previous game. In Game One Monday, the Hawks shot 51.3 percent from the floor and I expect another huge dropoff here as well.

The Chicago defense is one of the best units in the NBA and it was not on display in that first game. The Bulls allowed the Hawks to shoot over eight percent higher than what they normally allow and that is something that is taken personally. Chicago knows it has a better chance of winning a low scoring game than a shootout, especially at home, and the way to do that is hunker down on defense. The Bulls opening game against Indiana also went 'over' and a better effort on defense allowed Game Two to stay 'under'.

The Bulls have been in similar situations this season and they have in fact responded with better defensive efforts. Chicago is 16-7 to the 'under' revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and 43-30 to the 'under' after one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. Atlanta meanwhile is 19-8 to the 'under' in its last 27 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points while also going 21-7 to the 'under' versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg this season. 10* Under (713) Atlanta Hawks/(714) Chicago Bulls

We have seen this line fluctuate quite a bit in all four games so far in this series. I won on the Bulls/Pacers 'under' in Game Two, which was set at 193 and a big reason for playing that was due to the jump from the last game which had a closing total of 188.
For Game Three, we saw the number go back down to where it was in Game One but playing the 'over' did not come through. The number went down further in Game Four and now again in Game Five so we will once again go 'over'.

With the last three games being low scoring affairs, the value is on our side now as we are catching the lowest total of the series thus far. I also expect the Bulls to finally get their offense going as well. With a soft Indiana defense, the Bulls should have taken it to the Pacers but they shot just 38.9 percent in Game Three and 37.8 percent in Game Four while scoring 88 and 84 points respectively. This comes after scoring 104 and 96 points in the first two games at home and that is what we should see take place again.

Despite losing both games on the road, the Pacers shot a respectable 44.1 percent from the floor in the two games combined in Chicago which is more than what the Bulls have allowed at home, which is 42 percent. For the Pacers to extend this series, they will need to keep that same offense going as they actually scored more points in this series on the road than at home which is a big surprise since they have averaged more at home during the regular season.

The Pacers fall into a great situation based on last game. Play the 'over' involving a team after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game and where both teams scored 90 points or less in that game. This situation is 42-16 (72.4 percent) to the 'over' over the last five seasons. Also, Chicago is 26-13 to the 'over' coming off a loss as a favorite while the Pacers are 9-3 to the 'over' in their last 12 games when playing with two days rest and they are 4-1 to the 'over' this season with a total of less than 190. 10* Over (519) Indiana Pacers/(520) Chicago Bulls

I had the 'over' in this matchup on Saturday and a bad second half did us in, making it two straight 'unders' in this series. Even though the first game of this series went 'over' this number keeps dropping and it is the lowest so far in this entire series and the first time it has fallen below 190. It is actually the first time since January of 2009, a span of 12 meetings, that these teams have met with a total of fewer than 190. That represents value and we will take it on Monday.

The first game of this series went 'over' and while it did not go 'over' by much, that game was in San Antonio and figuring the first game in Memphis went 'under', that allows even more value to come into play. The two regular season meetings played in Memphis went 'over' and they went 'over' by quite a bit as they surpassed the number by a combined 27.5 points. With this being the playoffs, totals tend to be set lower and that is the case here as this number in down from those two previous games in Memphis.

Looking at straight numbers alone, the Spurs are averaging 201.1 ppg in their games this season while the Grizzlies are averaging 197.1 ppg in their games this season and both of those averages are well above the O/U for tonight. When looking at home/road splits, those two averages are 200.8 ppg and 198.1 respectively so the venue switch does not hurt. These are two of those most efficient offenses in the league and the Spurs and Grizzlies are ranked fifth and sixth respectively in offensive shooting.

Memphis falls into a fantastic situation for a high-scoring game. Play the 'over' involving home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points coming off a divisional win by three points or less while playing only their second game in five days. This situation is 35-8 (81.4 percent) since 1996. The 'over' is 11-3 in the last 14 games for the Spurs following a loss and the 'over' is 10-3 in their last 13 conference games while the 'over' is 8-1 in Memphis' last nine games as a home underdog of fewer than five points. 10* Over (511) San Antonio Spurs/(512) Memphis Grizzlies