Sports Picks & Predictions

We are catching another great totals situation tonight as we have two teams on recent runs that we will go against based on the contrarian factor along with over/under value. Sacramento hits the road to open a four-game east coast roadtrip starting in Brooklyn tonight and the Kings are riding a five-game over streak. However, the last game went into overtime while the majority of those games came against some of the faster paced teams in the NBA. Now they will face one of the slower teams in the league as the Nets are averaging 96.8 possessions per game, the eighth fewest. Brooklyn meanwhile has gone over in two straight games, one of those against the Celtics which are tied for the most possessions in the league and the other against Indiana which was able to shoot over 51 percent from the floor. The under is 9-1 in the Nets last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and I certainly expect a better defensive effort after allowing 86 and 87 shots the last two games. We also have a great league wide totals situation in play as we play the under involving one team after two or more consecutive overs going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive overs. This situation is 60-25 (70.6 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (707) Sacramento Kings/(708) Brooklyn Nets

While injuries are marring to majority of the Sunday NBA card, there are no recent injury issues in this game and we are making a play similar to the one last night in Chicago. Toronto is coming off a win last night in Los Angeles against the Clippers in a game that stayed under the total albeit by not much. Prior to that, the Raptors had gone over the total in three straight games and while we are dealing with a high number tonight, it is lower than last night against a team that is much faster paces. The Clippers average 161.9 shot attempts per game while the Nuggets are averaging 171.3 shot attempts per game and those 10 extra shots are huge especially with a lower total. Denver has gone under in five straight games because the offense has sputtered the majority of the time but we could very well see a big effort tonight against a Raptors team that is playing with no rest and has gone 5-2 to the over in previous seven games playing with no rest. Additionally, Toronto is 10-3 to the over on the road this season and 15-4 to the over in its last 19 games against teams allowing 103 or more ppg. 10* Over (807) Toronto Raptors/(808) Denver Nuggets

New Orleans is coming off a big win over San Antonio last night as the defense really stepped up by allowing just 90 points but still allowed the Spurs to shoot over 49 percent from the floor. After going over the total in five straight games, New Orleans has gone under in its last five games and I expect that to reverse out tonight. In their previous seven games playing with no rest, the Pelicans have gone under the total only two times. New Orleans is one of the faster tempo teams in the league as it averages 85.4 shots per game which is eighth highest and the Bulls allow 87 shots per game which is second moist in the league and it is 10-2 to the over against up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more spg this season. Chicago has gone under the total in its last two games but the last game was set at 208 and on the season, the Bulls are 5-0 to the over when the total is set between 200 and 205. New Orleans is 15-10 to the over this season when the total is 195 or higher and we should see the scoreboard lighting up tonight. 10* Over (509) New Orleans Pelicans/(510) Chicago Bulls

While this game looks like another shootout possibility, the under is the play here as we are getting an extremely favorable number. Golden St. got its revenge from last season's playoff loss by winning 121-104 last month and while that game went over, the closing total was 211 which is seven points less than what we have here, The Warriors have gone over in each of their last three games but this number is higher than any of those while the Clippers have gone over in two straight games and again, the number is higher here. All of this presents great contrarian value and it needs to be noted that this is the highest total either team has seen all season. We play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 210 involving teams after scoring 100 points or more two straight games going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 69-35 (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Golden St. is 19-7 to the under after allowing 110 points or more while going 19-9 to the under after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while the under is 5-1 in the Clippers last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (509) Golden St. Warriors/(510) Los Angeles Clippers

Playoff implications are on the line tonight with both Denver and Cincinnati needing to win to further playoff opportunities. The Broncos need to win to try and keep hope alive for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs while the Bengals can get into the postseason with a win tonight and next week against the Steelers. We are seeing some value with the total tonight however as Denver has gone under in three straight games while Cincinnati is coming off a shutout last week at Cleveland while going under in five of its last six games. Those recent runs are keeping this number down with a couple of very efficient offenses that can put up some numbers. Additionally, the Bengals are ranked sixth and the Broncos are ranked seventh in neutral pace. We have not seen much the last three weeks with the Denver offense but that should change against the Bengals 22nd ranked defense despite shutting out Cleveland last week. Denver falls into a great high scoring scenario where we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 36-12 (75%) to the over the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Denver is 15-6 to the over in its last 21 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games while the over is 11-4 in the Bengals last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (131) Denver Broncos/(132) Cincinnati Bengals

BYU and Memphis come into this game riding significant winning streaks and both offenses put up some big numbers over the last three games played for each. That being said, the time off is a big advantage for the defenses and the Memphis defense has been playing at a high level all season long. Coming in to this game the Tigers have the fifth ranked defense in points allowed and BYU had a tough time when it did face a strong stop unit. The Cougars defense has not been as consistent but they have been strong in such situations as head coach Rocco Mendenhall is 12-4 to the under against teams that are outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. Additionally, both teams fall into similar situations as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 50-100 ypg. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the under over the last five seasons. Memphis has gone under the total in its last six games against teams with a winning record and is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the under is 20-8 in the Cougars last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (211) BYU Cougars/(212) Memphis Tigers

Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons

Motivation plays a big role this time of year in the NFL as there are teams that are still highly motivated in trying to get into the playoffs while teams that are already eliminated are on the opposite side of that. San Diego and San Francisco respectively fall into this scenario and while the Chargers may seem like a good pick getting points, I think the motivational issues will give us an easier time with the total. Namely San Francisco and it typical strong defense may cash it in for the rest of the season knowing there is little left to play for. The 49ers defense is ranked third overall but they have struggled the last three games and there is no reason to think that won't continue here. San Diego has an average offense but after two mediocre games and with a lot on the line, I expect big improvements. The Chargers defense has slipped of late and the 49ers should be able to move the ball with Colin Kaepernick out to prove something. Two situations favor the over. First, we play the over involving home teams that matches up two teams averaging +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 250 or less total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 41-16 (71.9 percent) to the over since 1983. Second, we play the over involving teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-8 (75.8 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (103) San Diego Chargers/(104) San Francisco 49ers

The NFL Network cannot be too thrilled to have this yawner as the final Thursday night game of the season but that is what they got stuck with. While many will be expecting a low scoring game that will have two inept offenses going at it, I think we will see a lot more scoring than anticipated. Both teams have gone under the total in two straight games as the offenses have scored a grand total of 42 points in those four games. That doesn't come to be much of a surprise as these are two of the lowest scoring teams in football but it is the other side that will be of help. Tennessee is ranked 29th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense while Jacksonville is ranked 28th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense so even some of the worst offenses in the league can get through these stop units. Because of the public perception, the total is the lowest that each team has seen all season and it is over two points lower than the first meeting which finished at 30 total points as many will be banking on another similar finish. Tennessee falls into a great over situation as we play the involving road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points off two or more consecutive unders and are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 53-23 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 12-2 to the over in its last 13 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while the over is 5-1 in the Jaguars last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (101) Tennessee Titans/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars

These teams just met on Saturday with Houston prevailing at home 108-96, staying under the total by just a bucket. With the change in venue, I expect this one to fly over tonight. That was the third under in the last four games for the Rockets with the lone over coming on the road at Sacramento and the location of the game makes a difference for this team. Houston averages 188.7 ppg in its home games but that climbs to 201.6 ppg in road games and while that is still lower than this total, the difference of 12.9 ppg is huge and even more so when taking into account the opponent. Denver averages about the same both home and away as it is right at 207 ppg. The Nuggets have gone under the total in three straight games as well as three straight at home but a lot of that has to do with the pace of the game. As far as possessions per game, Denver has 100.3 and Houston has 99, good for sixth and eight most in the league respectively. Both teams fall into a solid contrarian over situation as we play the over involving teams shooting between 41.5 and 43.5 percent and that are between +/-3 rpg in margin. This situation is 72-34 (67.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (717) Houston Rockets/(718) Denver Nuggets

We are getting a good number here based on recent games and this should turn into a high scoring affair. Minnesota has gone under the total in four straight games but all of those were at home where the offense was unable to generate much and the defense actually played rather well. The road defense is a different story as the Timberwolves are allowing a whopping 115.6 ppg including an incredible 124.3 ppg over their last six games. This is exactly what the Washington offense needs as it has been hit or miss and is coming off a 93-point effort against Utah last time out. Going back to early November, the Wizards have scored fewer than 100 points seven previous times and have followed that up with 100 or more points six times. Washington is averaging 112.6 ppg over its last five home games and its 48.2 percent overall shooting percentage at home is seventh best in the NBA. The Wizards are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA but the Timberwolves will push the ball as they are averaging 85.2 shots per game which is eighth most in the NBA and that number drops just slightly on the road. Minnesota is 14-3 to the over in its last 17 road games after two or more consecutive unders and 15-2 to the over in its last 17 road games against teams shooting 46 percent on the season or better. Washington is 14-6 to the over in its last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (501) Minnesota Timberwolves/(502) Washington Wizards

This is a contrarian play on the total but we have a lot of favorable angles calling for a high scoring game. One big factor is the total itself as it is the first time all season that either team is being presented with a total in the 30's and it is two points lower than the total in the first meeting on Thanksgiving. That first meeting stay under by a lot which is playing into this number as is the fact that San Francisco has gone under in its last four games while Seattle has gone under in its last three games. The series has seen four straight unders cash but again, this is lowest over/under of the bunch so we are getting some great value. The San Francisco offense has been plodding along of late and while the Seahawks defense presents a challenge, being the second game in three weeks, the 49ers should be well prepared on offense after a bad string of games. Seattle is averaging 28.7 ppg at home so it will get its points against a 49ers defense that has struggled in four of their last five games. Seattle falls into a solid situation as we play the over involving teams that have gone under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Also, Seattle has gone over in seven straight games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* Over (329) San Francisco 49ers/(330) Seattle Seahawks

This is the first meeting this season between two of the top teams in the Western Conference and while everything points to the over, the value is clearly the other way. Dallas has gone over the total in five straight games and seven of its last eight while Memphis has gone over in two of its last three with the last missing by just a bucket. This is a rarity however for the Grizzlies to see a total this high and the only time they had one above 200, it stayed under rather easily. Obviously this number is lower than what Dallas has seen a lot of the time but it is still very high against a slower team. Both teams have excellent situations on their side as we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after five or more consecutive overs and averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) to the under since 1996. Second, we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 79-42 (65.3 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (705) Dallas Mavericks/(706) Memphis Grizzlies

Buffalo kept its playoff chances alive with a win last week against Cleveland to make it two straight victories which can be credited to the defense. The Bills allowed just 13 points in those two games and going back, they have gone under the total in four straight games but that changes this week as they are facing one of the best offenses in the NFL and even more so on its home field. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs last week in a game that stayed below the number, the second straight road game that fell below the total. Denver now returns home where the over has cashed four straight times thanks to an offense that has averaged 39.3 ppg in those games and even though the Bills defense has been great, this is not the spot for that to continue. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record while going 16-4 to the over in its last 20 games after playing its last game on the road. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-0 to the over in its last six road games following one or more consecutive wins with an average scoring being 57.5 ppg in those games. This includes 66 points being scored with the Jets after a win over Minnesota earlier this season. 10* Over (169) Buffalo Bills/(170) Denver Broncos

It was a very unfortunate break for Ohio St. when quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season last week against Michigan. Now down to their third quarterback, the Buckeyes will not be able to win in a shootout and they will have to try and dictate the pace of this game for them to have their best shot at winning. We are still seeing a rather high total though and part of that is due to the recent history as Wisconsin has gone over in two of its last three games with a push and Ohio St. has gone over 10 of its last 11 games. So not only is there value in the number based on the contrarian angles but also the way we should see the game play out. The Badgers will try to grind out a win here by pounding the ball with running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 151 yards and one touchdown in last week's 34-24 win over the Golden Gophers. Ohio St. knows it has to stop the run which it has done a good job of this season. On the other side, the Wisconsin defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation because of an aggressive 3-4 scheme. The Badgers allow just 260.3 ypg and 16.8 ppg and while Cardale Jones is a capable backup quarterback, he will not be able to take control of the game against this defense. With a lot of running from both sides, the clock runs and this one stays under the total. 10* Under (127) Wisconsin Badgers/(128) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Miami and Milwaukee have been involved in some high scoring games of late and the defense can be to blame but I think we see better efforts from both teams on that side of the ball Friday night. Milwaukee has gone over the total in four straight games namely because of the defense that has allowed 107, 111 and 117 points over their last three games. It was a pace issue for the most part as Milwaukee, which allows an average of just 82 attempts per game, allowed 87 and 92 in two of those games. Don't expect that tonight as Miami is the slowest paced team in the NBA as it shoots a league low 73.2 shots per games and allows a league low 76.8 attempts per game. The Heat have gone over in two straight, catching two very hot shooting teams while allowing just 72 and 74 shots. All of this leads to a great situation as well as we play the under involving one team after two or more consecutive overs going up against an opponent after four or more consecutive overs. This situation is 107-57 (65.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 9-1 in the Heats last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 6-2-1 in the Bucks last nine home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (819) Miami Heat/(820) Milwaukee Bucks

After going over the total in seven of the first eight weeks, Thursday nights have flipped the switch as four of the last five Thursday primetime games have stayed below the total. We are going against the recent run tonight as we waited on this until weather conditions were confirmed and it is going to be a good night in Chicago. We played on the Dallas under last Thursday which brought it to 4-2-1 to the under at home but the road has been a different story. Not only are the Cowboys winning on the road with a 5-0 record but the last four games on the highway have gone over the total and it has been the offense that has triggered that by scoring 34, 30, 31 and 31 points and after a horrible showing last week against the Eagles, I expect that offense to bounce back against a horrendous Bears defense. Chicago went over the total last Thursday in Detroit and while its last three home games have stayed under, this is easily the best offense it has seen at home over this stretch. Dallas is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after a loss by 14 or more points as a home favorite while the Bears are 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the over is 5-0 in the Cowboys last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and the over is 6-0 in the Bears last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (101) Dallas Cowboys/(102) Chicago Bears

The Knicks are on a four-game losing streak as the early season has been a disaster as the offense has had a tough time scoring points. New York is near the bottom of the league in scoring at 93.4 ppg but the shooting itself has not been that bad as the Knicks are middle of the pack in shooting percentage and are near the top in three-point shooting. They are coming off games of scoring 78 and 79 points which are their two lowest outputs of the season but I expect New York's offense to come to life tonight. Brooklyn has gone under the total in four straight games and seven of its last eight but looking at the closing numbers shows that we are getting great value here with a total that is lower than it normally would be. These teams played last month and the total was three points higher and that one went over. The Nets have a similar offense as the Knicks and their defense has not been up to par this season as they are allowing over 100 ppg on season and over 101 ppg on the road. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last four games following a double-digit loss at home while the over is 20-7-1 in the Knicks last 28 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Over (507) Brooklyn Nets/(508) New York Knicks

Portland is coming off a loss at home against Memphis on Friday as the defense allowed 112 points and after that defeat, I expect the defense to lock down on Sunday. It was the second straight game that the Blazers have gone over and the last time they allowed this many points, 113 against Denver, they followed it up by allowing just 87 points in their next game. Minnesota is coming off a high scoring game last time out and it has gone over in seven of its last eight games and now we are presented with some good value on the total against one of the better defense in the league. Portland is 26-12 to the under in its last 38 home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and it falls into a situation where we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. This situation is 78-42 (65 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (813) Minnesota Timberwolves/(814) Portland Trailblazers

While we like Tampa Bay to win its first home game of the season, we like it getting done in a high scoring game. Again, this is the Bengals third straight road game and that can have a negative impact on the defense which is what happened to the Buccaneers earlier in the season when playing their third straight road game. Additionally, we are getting value based on the recent history of both sides as Cincinnati has gone under in three straight games while Tampa Bay has gone under in five straight games. The Buccaneers offense has been pretty bad for the most part but this is one of those games where they can bust out, similar to what Cleveland did in Atlanta last week. The over is 3-1-1 in the Bengals last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the over is 4-1 in the Buccaneers last five games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati also have a fantastic situation favoring a high scoring games as we play the over involving a team after going under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Going against the recent runs gives us the contrarian angles and also helps us with the number. 10* Over (461) Cincinnati Bengals/(462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles and Cowboys were both involved in high scoring games this past Sunday and we are getting some excellent value in the total because of it. It was the fourth straight over for Philadelphia as the offense put up the second most amount of points this season with both of those high output games coming at home. The Eagles are averaging 36.7 ppg at home which is the second most in the league but that average drops to 24.4 ppg on the road which is a significant dropoff. Dallas' defense has been pretty consistent both on the road and at home but and they have allowed more than 21 points at home only twice. The Cowboys have gone over the total in two straight games but those were away from home where they have gone over in three straight games. Both teams fall into great situations. First, we play the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 35-12 (74.5 percent) to the under since 1983. Second, we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Philadelphia Eagles/(308) Dallas Cowboys

The Lions return home following a two-game roadtrip where they lost both games while scoring a grand total of 15 points. They have now gone under the total in four straight games and nine of their last 10 but Thursday presents a great opportunity for a high scoring game based on situation and opponent. Detroit is coking off its worst defensive performance of the season as it allowed 34 points and 439 total yards against the Patriots. Chicago is also coming off a low scoring game, its second straight under but those games were both at home. The Bears have gone over the total in five of their six road games this season while allowing 55 and 51 points in their two most recent road outings. That should certainly help a Detroit offense that is stuck in neutral to move forward starting on Thursday. The Bears have gone over the total in their last seven road games following one or more consecutive wins and Detroit has a great situational angle on its side. We play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that are between + and - 3 ppg in scoring differential going up against teams that are between -3 and -7 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 62-28 (68.9 percent)to the over since 1983. 10* Over (305) Chicago Bears/(306) Detroit Lions

Portland has won seven straight games and while the offense was good and the defense was bad during the first three games of the streak, it has been a complete flip-flop over the last four games which has seen the under come in all four times. That is giving us some value tonight in a lower that average total. This is the third time Portland has played with no rest and the first two times, the games soared over the total with scores of 226 and 243. Additionally, Portland is 11-2 to the over in its last 13 road games after four or more consecutive wins. The winless Sixers will have their hands full here no doubt but catching the Blazers with no rest is a big edge for the offense that has been horrendous and they should be able to break through. Philadelphia averages over 14 more ppg at home than it does n the road and going back, the Sixers are 24-10 to the over in their last 34 home games coming off a road loss. 10* Over (703) Portland Trailblazers/(704) Philadelphia 76ers

We are going with a great probability dynamic here as we are catching two teams on current totals streaks that are very uncommon. With the days of scoring in the NFL at an all time high, it is rare to find two teams involved in so many low scoring games but that is the case here with the Browns and Falcons. Cleveland has gone under the total in six straight games while Atlanta has gone under the total in six straight games as well. The most shocking thing about this is the overall body of work of the two sides. Atlanta is ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense and are 10th in total offense which would normally lead to high scoring games which obviously has not been the case. Cleveland's splits are not as extreme but they are still shaded the same way as the Browns defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL while their offense is ranked 14th. The reasoning for the lower scores has been turnovers which has taken away scoring chances on offense and prevented them on defense. This is a big anomaly and one that we can take advantage of when putting the two together as we are getting value in the number based on the current totals runs. Atlanta is much higher scoring team at home and this is their first home games since October 12th as they have played three road games as well as a game in London. Cleveland has had two low scoring road games during the run but prior to that, the first two road games went over with scores of 57 points in each. We get back to that this week. 10* Over (251) Cleveland Browns/(252) Atlanta Falcons *TOTAL OF THE MONTH*

The Knicks snapped their seven-game losing streak with a victory over Denver on Sunday. The offense finally showed signs of life as they scored 109 points on 53.9 percent shooting, both of which were season highs and the thinking here is that they can continue to progress that offense over the next few games as the schedule will allow it to do so because of the lack of strength to it. Even though New York had its best offensive performance of the season, the game against Denver still stayed under the number because the defense allowed just 93 points but that is something we should not get used to. While the Knicks stayed under the total last time out, Milwaukee has stayed under the total over its last seven games and the numbers have been coming down to coincide with that. The Bucks are allowing the third fewest amount of points in the NBA but we need to put an asterisk by that. Milwaukee has allowed 81 points or fewer three times this season but those games were misleading as they came against Philadelphia, Oklahoma City and Indiana, three teams completely disjointed because of injuries and/or youth. The offense has struggled scoring points which has helped the under streak and it is simply a case of some poor shooting. Both New York and Milwaukee are in the middle of the pack in shots so the low scoring games would come from poor shooting and not pace. Opposite will collide on each side and I think that the offenses will be able to find success against both opposing defenses. 10* Over (703) New York Knicks/(704) Milwaukee Bucks

Tulsa snapped its seven-game losing streak with a win last week against SMU which really isn't saying much. It has been a struggle for a second consecutive season for the Golden Hurricane as they will miss out on a bowl game again after a string of three straight bowl games. The defense has been the issue which is evidenced by their 8-1 over mark on the season but they have faced some tough offenses along the way. That cannot be said on Friday however as UCF is averaging just over 330 ypg which is 112th in the country. The Knights are coming off a loss against Connecticut in their last game as their own defense, which is the strength of the team, let them down by allowing 37 points. They came into that game allowing an average of just 14 ppg over their previous five games so that unit is going to come into this one ready to made amends. They have gone over the total in two straight games but now they are seeing their biggest total of the season which present some great value going the other way. This is an interesting dynamic whereas Tulsa has produced an average of 922 yards in its games which is 15th most in the country but UCF has produced an average of just 638.4 yards in its games which is the fourth fewest in the country. The Knights are the better team by far which means the game will be controlled by their game thus resulting in a low scoring game. 10* Under (317) Tulsa Golden Hurricane/(318) Central Florida Knights

The public has been absolutely killing it with the NFL Primetime overs as they have gone a combined 24-7 on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights. While that would normally steer me to the under for this Thursday game based on percentages alone, the last two Thursday games have actually gone under the number so there is no value going that way. The value I feel is actually going the other way with both Buffalo and Miami coming off low scoring games this past week and now having to play on a short week, which can typically be a detriment to the defense. Buffalo lost to Kansas City and only 30 total points were scored which came after their game against the Jets where 66 total points were put up. Prior to that, the Bills and Vikings only scored 33 points after Buffalo put up 59 total points with the Patriots. This goes to show how one game style does not necessarily feed into the next. It can be argued that the Dolphins have had that happen based on four straight games that have gone under the total. But I think that has had a lot to do with the opponent and how the game played out. Miami has averaged 30.6 ppg in its previous five games before last week where they scored 16 points but facing the best defense in the NFL in the Lions can do that. The Over is 10-4-1 in the Bills last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and Miami falls into a great situation where we play on the over where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points involving teams off 1 or more consecutive unders and outscoring opponents +3 to +7 ppg going up against teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (309) Buffalo Bills/(310) Miami Dolphins

Here we have a battle of two first place teams in their respective divisions and I am expecting a defensive battle despite recent results. The Bulls are known for their strong defense which has been hit or miss this season but they are still in the top half of the league in points allowed and are fifth in shooting percentage allowed. Chicago has gone over the total in three straight games so as of Thursday morning, they are seeing their highest over/under of the young season. The Bulls will be facing a Toronto offense that leads the NBA in scoring but one look at the opposition will tell you why that is the case as the Raptors have played the 25th ranked schedule in the league. Granted, that has also helped their defensive numbers but the Bulls are no offensive juggernaut and as far as pace goes, their 79.5 shot attempts per game are the seventh fewest in the NBA. There is not a lot different from last year to this year with these teams yet in four meetings last season, the highest closing total was 187.5 and the points scored in the four meetings was 176, 176, 164 and 186 so we are getting a great number to work with tonight. Chicago is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game while Toronto is 5-1 to the under in its last six games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. 10* Under (501) Chicago Bulls/(502) Toronto Raptors

Bowling Green because bowl eligible last Tuesday with a win over Akron and it now has a 1.5 game lead over Ohio in the MAC East with three games remaining. After scoring 31 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Falcons have totaled just 41 points in their last two games and going back, they have gone under in their last four games. That presents us with a great opportunity to cash the over on Wednesday as Bowling Green is working with its lowest total of the season and its first one in the 50's all year. Falcons games have produced an average of 974.3 ypg this season which is the sixth highest yardage output in the country. Kent St. fell to 1-8 with a loss against Toledo last Tuesday in a game that also stayed below the total, the second straight under for the Golden Flashes. The offense has been hit or miss this season and has been the latter the majority of the time but even Kent St. should have success moving the ball against Bowling Green's 123rd ranked defense. On the other side, the defense has shown signs of good play but those times have been rare and the Golden Flashes are just 88th in total defense. They have faced four teams ranked in the top 50 in offense and have allowed an average of 38.3 ppg while allowing just 23.6 ppg in the other five games against teams ranked outside the top 50. Bowling Green falls into the former so we should see plenty of points. 10* Over (307) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(308) Bowling Green Falcons

The under last Sunday night was looking good through three quarters with just 32 points on the board but then Baltimore and Pittsburgh erupted for 34 points in the final quarter to push another Sunday night game over the total and make bookmakers across the world cringe once again. That is because the over is now an uncanny 8-1 on Sunday nights and overall in all primetime games, 22 of 28 games have gone over the number. The public continues to ride this trend which will come crashing down eventually and all the linesmakers can to is keep raising the number. The first meeting this season between Chicago and Green Bay closed at 51 so we are seeing close to a field goal more this time around. Some of that is due to the recent primetime scoring as well as the trends between these two teams. While the Bears went over the total in their last game prior to their bye, the Packers went over the total in their last five games prior to their bye and on the season, they are 7-1 to the over. It is a safe bet the over is going to be hammered again this week so the best bet is to wait until closer to game time as we should see it go up even more barring any weather issues which does not look to be the case as of now. Chicago is 18-7 to the under in its last 25 games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games while going 9-1 to the under in its last 10 road games after being outgained by 100 or more yards two consecutive games. Green Bay fall into a situation where we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (271) Chicago Bears/(272) Green Bay Packers

While Atlanta was able to cover the total on its own in the first matchup, we likely will not be seeing that again here but I think the Falcons can get something going on that side of the ball after not doing much of late. After averaging 32.8 ppg through their first four games, the Falcons have averaged a mere 15.3 ppg over their last four games so it should come as no surprise that all four of these recent games have stayed under the number. Having a bye week was huge as the offensive line was severely banged up and while still not 100 percent, they are definitely in better shape now. The Falcons defense has done its part to try and get over the total as it has allowed 27 ppg over this four-game stretch which is great news for the Buccaneers which have been stuck in neutral most of the season. Tampa Bay is second to last in points scored in the league but it has faced some good defenses along the way. That changes here as Atlanta has the worst total defense in the NFL and fourth worst scoring defense. Tampa Bay has stayed under the total in its last two games which again adds to the value this week. Tampa Bay is 19-8 to the over in its last 27 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games while the over is 8-3 in the Falcons last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Also, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving road teams that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (263) Atlanta Falcons/(264) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We are going the opposite way with our total on Friday as we are catching another matchup with a skewed over/under based on recent results. Utah St. travels to Wyoming for a rare nationally televised game in Laramie. The Aggies became bowl eligible last Saturday with a win at Hawaii, its second straight win over a bottom feeder from the MWC. Both of those games went over the total as well as last week they were able to surpass the 41.5 number with ease. Now Utah St. is seeing a higher number this week with a lot that based on the other side. Wyoming snapped a four-game losing streak with a victory last week at Fresno St. as it scored a season high 45 points. The Cowboys offense has picked things up lately, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games after scoring 20 points or less in its first five games. This has a lot to do with the defenses faced however and this week they will take on an Aggies stop unit that has allowed 20 points or less in five straight games and one that is ranked 39th in total defense. Wyoming has gone over the total in five straight games and that is helping with the number this week. Four of those games were on the road and the other game at home took overtime to surpass. The under is 10-3 in the Aggies last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (115) Utah St. Aggies/(116) Wyoming Cowboys

Through eight games combined between these two teams, the under has come in all eight times which sets up a great opportunity tonight for a higher scoring game and we are getting a good number to play with. San Antonio played last night and blew a 17-point lead but was able to hang on in a low scoring game that finished with just 86 points. Prior to that, the Spurs and Suns finished with only 83 points so I expect things to change here. As for Houston, the offense has been able to score in bunches as it has gone over 100 points in all five of its games but it has been the defense that has kept the under run going as the Rockets have allowed no more than 93 points through five games. While the Spurs offense has been quiet thus far, remember that they were fourth in the NBA last season in scoring with 103 ppg. Houston meanwhile is right around its average from a season ago so we should see both offenses find success tonight. The first meeting last season went over the total and while the final three meetings all stayed under, two of those would have gone over if using tonight's number as those final three games has over/under totals of 212.5, 209 and 211.5. The over is 12-3-1 in the Rockets last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record while the over is 18-7 in the Spurs last 25 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 10* Over (701) San Antonio Spurs/(702) Houston Rockets

It is rare to see a total this low in college football but with recent offensive struggles by both teams, it isn't all that surprising. What is surprising though is the struggles on offense on the Clemson side as it has been unable to do nothing on that side of the ball the last three games. The Tigers have scored 23, 17 and 16 points over their last three games but they have played some solid defenses in those games that are ranked 6th, 11th and 38th. Wake Forest will be the worst defense it has faced over this stretch and I expect this offense to come back around behind quarterback Cole Stoudt who has actually been very solid in his three games since replacing Deshaun Watson. The Demon Deacons have allowed an average of 32 ppg over their last three games and two of those came against Boston College and Syracuse, ranked 65th and 93rd respectively in total offense. Wake Forest has had problems on offense all season long as it has not surpassed 24 points in any game. It has gotten even worse of late but we are banking on some success Thursday night despite playing a very tough Tigers defense. This number is low enough to where we do not need Wake Forest to go off as a limited amount of points will help as the Clemson offense takes care of most of this total. Wake Forest has gone under in five straight and Clemson has gone under in four straight so that makes this a huge contrarian value play. 10* Over (111) Clemson Tigers/(112) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

These teams played six days ago and while they went over the total then, the value has shifted quite a bit to the other side. And a lot of that is due to what has taken place to start the season. The Lakers are off to a 0-4 start with all of those games going above the total. The noteworthy thing is that each game has seen a higher total going forward as it has gone from 207 to 208 to 210 to 210.5 and now it has gone all the way up to 215 in some spots which is a huge adjustment. On the other side, Phoenix has gone over in two of its first three games including last time out at Utah where it lost by 27 points. This too is the highest total that the Suns have seen this season as the previous high has been 208. The Lakers defense has been the main culprit in their slow start to the season and they are aware that they need to buckle down. Los Angeles is allowing a league-high 118.0 ppg but that number is not high because of pace, which is an important factor in totals. The Lakers are allowing an average of 77.3 shot attempts per game which is fifth lowest in the league so they have been on the wrong side of some hot shooting teams, especially from long range where opposing teams are averaging a league-high 12.8 three-point makes per game. On the other side, Suns games are seeing 169.3 shots per game from both sides which is the fifth lowest in the league. Going back to last season, the under is 8-2-2 in the Suns last 12 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 4-0 in the Lakers last four games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. 10* Under (715) Phoenix Suns/(716) Los Angeles Lakers

A barrage of points in the fourth quarter last night saw yet another primetime game go over the total and sportsbooks continue to feel the burn. Of the 27 Thursday, Sunday and Monday primetime games this season, 21 have gone over the total and public has absolutely cleaned up. The linesmakers are making adjustments to curb this but it has not been enough and the public will continue to ride this anomaly. The Colts have the best offense in the NFL in terms of both scoring and yardage so they are expected to score in bunches and while the Giants defense has been inconsistent, playing at home will help as they are allowing 358 ypg and 20.7 ppg in three home games compared to 404.3 ypg and 26.8 ppg in four road games. The Colts have gone over in all four road games this season which again adds the contrarian value aspect. The Giants offense has struggled the last two games which coincides with running back Rashad Jennings being out of the lineup and that will be the case again this week. Without Jennings, the running game has faltered and that in turn hurts the passing game which of course is now without Victor Cruz. The Colts defense was playing at a high level until last week but I expect a big bounce back this week. This is the third time this season the Giants have had an over/under in the 50's and the first two games stayed under the total. The under is 18-7-1 in the Giants last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (473) Indianapolis Colts/(474) New York Giants

We won the Under in week Two when these teams met on Thursday night. Here is one of the big reasons for that play taken from that analysis. " This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight." That game stayed well under the number and in the second meeting, we are getting an even larger number to work with. 14 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed under the 48 points that we are presented with this week and we are banking on it again. Helping us is the fact that Pittsburgh rang up 51 points against the Colts last week and that all four of the Steelers home game have gone over the total. Additionally, three of the four Baltimore road games have gone over the total including last week's game at Cincinnati so the linesmakers have no choice but to lay a big number here. Oh, and the fact that seven of eight Sunday night games have gone over the total this season. You know where we are going. 10* Under (471) Baltimore Ravens/(472) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Royals took the series lead last night with a 3-2 win that saw a battle of pitchers and great defensive efforts. The game stayed below the total, the first in three World Series games thus far, but I think we get back to a higher scoring game tonight as we head toward the back of the rotation on both sides. We have yet to see both offenses put up some big numbers in the same game as Game One it was San Francisco with seven runs and Game Two it was Kansas City with seven runs while Game Three saw neither side produce as there were just 10 combined hits on Friday. San Francisco had gone over in six straight games prior to last night while the Royals were 5-2 to the over in their last seven games and the number remains the same as last night with just a little added juice. Jason Vargas goes for the Royals and he has put together two fine starts in the playoffs after a rough finish to the regular season. Since 2010, he has a 3.92 ERA and has averaged 190 innings per season but Vargas has the 14th-lowest groundball-to-flyball ratio among qualified pitchers. In other words, he's allowed a well-above-average rate of flyballs. He has been solid on the road this season but he is facing an offense that is overdue. San Francisco counters with Ryan Vogelsong and he has gone five straight starts without a quality outing. He has experienced mixed success with the extra rest, holding the Nationals to one run over 5.2 innings in the NLDS but giving up four runs in three innings last time out against the Cardinals. The over is 4-1 in Vogelsong's last five starts against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (907) Kansas City Royals/(908) San Francisco Giants

The first two games of the World Series went over the total in Kansas City and even though we are going lower in the pitching rotation, I am expecting a lower scoring game in the first game in San Francisco. Wednesday's game was far from an offensive game with the exception of one inning where the Royals scored five runs and it was the second straight game where the bullpens dominated late which we will see throughout this series. We are also going against a big streak on the Giants side as they have gone over the total in six straight games going back to the NLCS against St. Louis. We are catching a good number also as the under is 37-17-5 in the Royals last 59 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Jeremy Guthrie takes the hill for Kansas City and he has been pitching great, allowing just two runs over his last four starts, including giving up just one run in five innings in his fist postseason start. The under has come through in each of his last three starts and the under is 18-7-2 in Guthrie's last 27 road starts. Kansas City is giving him only 3.5 rpg in his nighttime starts, covering 23 games. San Francisco counters with Tim Hudson who is making his first ever World Series start after 16 seasons and I expect him to pitch like the seasoned veteran he is. He was definitely inconsistent over the latter part of the season but he has been solid during the postseason by allowing just five runs over 13.2 innings. Overall, in 11 postseason starts, he has a 3.42 ERA so his experience will be a big advantage tonight. 10* Under (905) Kansas City Royals/(906) San Francisco Giants

Two of the three remaining undefeated teams in Sun Belt Conference action take the field tonight with the winner still in the mix for the conference championship and the loser likely out. The reason for that is that neither team plays first place Georgia Southern this season so the winner is likely going to have to win out because of the Panthers remaining schedule. Louisiana won for us last week as the offense got going and I expect that to continue. Louisiana came into the season as the preseason favorite to win the conference and after a rough stretch, it is finally hitting its stride and is still the team to beat with the dynamic Terrance Broadway at quarterback. The Cajuns have put up 34 points in each of the last two games so they are playing at their highest level of the season. Arkansas St. meanwhile has also been hitting its stride on offense, scoring 28 and 52 points in its two conference games as quarterback Fredi Knighten has been outstanding in his own right. Both of these defenses have been playing at a high level but a lot of that has to do with the opposition and both will be taking a big step up in class here. And it is those defenses that is keeping this total low as both has numbers in the 60's in their last game and now they are catching it in the low 50's. Last year saw an O/U of 69 so we are seeing a two-touchdown adjustment for a Louisiana team that has not changed and an Arkansas St. team that does have new personnel but has a new head coach that has an offense mind. Weather will not be an issue. 10* Over (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(102) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

We are catching the perfect contrarian angle for this game and we are going in with our first total release in the NHL this season. This is the second meeting of the season between Boston and Detroit with the Red Wings taking the first matchup in this building 2-1 thus getting their revenge from being swept in the playoffs last season. The low scoring game is what we are concerned with though as that was the second of four straight unders for the Bruins to open the season while in the case of Detroit, it has gone under in both of its games this season as well. That 6-0 combined record to the over is already giving us value as that first meeting had a total of 5.5 and a half-goal drop this time around is huge in the game of hockey. While many will be wanting to ride those streaks, we will be going the opposite and it is the Bruins that really make this one worth the big play. Boston is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after scoring one goal or less in three straight games and they fall into a great league-wide situation, as does Detroit, where we play the over involving home teams after scoring two goals or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where four or fewer total goals were scored. This situation is 66-36 (64.7 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (53) Boston Bruins/(54) Detroit Red Wings

The first two games of this series have gone over the total and we will be going the opposite direction here. Because we are at the middle of the rotation with the starters, the total has increased slightly so while it is a justifiable move based on that, I do not think the change in venue is being taken into consideration nearly enough. While the first two games played in Kansas City in the postseason have gone over the total, this has been a low scoring park of late with 12 of the previous 19 games having seven or fewer runs scored. It has been a long layoff for Jeremy Guthrie who has not started since September 26th but after tossing 202.2 innings during the season, the added rest is huge. He recently took part in a simulated game, and Royals manager Ned Yost said there's "no concern" about the long layoff. He will be facing his former team for the fifth time and he has been successful in the past, posting a 2.67 ERA in 27 innings. The under is 10-4-1 in Guthrie's last 15 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. The Orioles counter with Wei-Yin Chen who was very solid all season with a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 32 starts and those numbers are even better on the road. Though Chen struggled in his AL Division Series start against the Tigers, it is good that the first playoff start is done with. He has pitched well in Kansas City, where he is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two career starts and the under is 7-1 over his last eight road starts. 10* Under (963) Baltimore Orioles/(964) Kansas City Royals

We are getting some value on this total based on recent results from both sides. Last night, Game One of this series stayed under the number which was not a huge surprise with the aces of both teams on the hill in Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner. Tonight we are getting a total that is just a half-run higher despite the dropoff in starting pitching and that is due to the playoff runs of each team. After going over in their Wild Card game against the Pirates, the Giants have gone under in five straight games, scoring no more than three runs in any of those five contests. St. Louis meanwhile went over the total in Game One against the Dodgers in the NLDS but has since stayed under the number in its last four games, also scoring no more than three runs in any of those last four games. I think we are due to see one, if not both, offenses finally get going. Jake Peavy gets the call for San Francisco and he has been an awesome addition to the rotation since coming over from Boston. He has allowed two runs or less in 10 straight starts but most of those games came against some mediocre offenses and while the Cardinals have been shut down in the postseason, they still have the best bats in baseball. On the flip side, Lance Lynn is also on a great run as he has tossed 10 straight quality outings and is a third of an inning away from that streak being 17 straight. The Giants have been his nemesis however and it would not be surprising to see that quality outing streak end here. The contrarian total gets it done tonight. 10* Over (957) San Francisco Giants/(958) St. Louis Cardinals

The quarterback situation for both San Diego St. and New Mexico is not good as both starters are likely out for this one but that actually helps us with this total. Aztecs quarterback Quinn Kaehler missed the last game against Fresno St. and the offense suffered as they put up just 270 total yards as backup Nick Bawden had a horrific game. The extra prep time going into this one can only help and the opponent is a benefit as well. The fact that New Mexico allowed just nine points last week against UTSA can be considered an anomaly as prior to that, the Lobos had allowed at least 31 points in each of their first four games. The defense is still a very porous unit overall as they are ranked 116th in total defense, allowing a whopping 504.2 ypg while giving up 33.6 ppg. On the other side, Lobos quarterback Cole Gautsche came back after missing significant time only to leave once again. Backup Lamar Jordan was efficient once again but he will not be asked to win as the triple-option pistol ground attack is ranked fourth nationally with an average of 322.4 ypg on the ground. San Diego St. has been decent on defense but it is skewed by its first game against Northern Arizona of the FCS when it allowed just 312 yards and seven points. This is by far the lowest total each team has seen this season and while the quarterback situation is aiding that, the Aztecs have gone under is every game while New Mexico has gone under in two straight so we are getting value based on that as well. 10* Over (107) San Diego St. Aztecs/(108) New Mexico Lobos

The ALCS is not the matchup everyone was expecting and what it lacks in star quality, it makes up for in true baseball talent. The Royals and Orioles got here in different styles but one thing that is consistent and that is the pitching. Kansas City allowed a total of six runs over the three games against the potent Angels offense while Baltimore allowed a total of 10 runs in its three-game sweep of the powerful Tigers lineup. As we open this series at the top of the rotation for both sides, I expect the pitching to reign supreme once again. James Shields get the ball for the Royals and he was solid in his lone start in the ALDS against Los Angeles as he allowed just two runs over six innings in the clinching third game. That was in Kansas City and he has actually been much better on the road as he went 10-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 19 starts and while the majority of those games went over, that was due to great run support which I don't see happening tonight. That is because Chris Tillman has been just as solid, posting a 2.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 19 home starts. These two pitching faces the opposing teams a total of three times this season and allowed a grand total of just five runs. The under is 37-17-5 in the Royals last 59 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 while going under in Shields last four games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Under is 17-8-1 in the Orioles last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record while going under in 18 of Tillman's last 26 home starts against teams with a winning record. The last four meetings in this season series took place back in May and while those results are meaningless now, the fact that all four of those games had totals of seven shows we have value here as typical playoff over/under numbers tend to reduce quite a bit. 10* Under (951) Kansas City Royals/(952) Baltimore Orioles

We have seen three low scoring games to start this series, all of which have easily stayed below the total but tonight could finally be the night we see the bats break out. There have been a total of 13 runs scored over the first three games which comes after the last five regular season matchups all going over the total and averaging 11.4 rpg. Now playoff baseball is definitely different but we are getting exceptional value here and in comparison, this is the same number as last night when two elite starters were on the mound and don't be surprised to see this number climb to 7 later in the day so betting it earlier would be better. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for Washington and he has been pitching very well of late with a string of seven quality outings. He does have a 3.63 ERA on the road however which is certainly good but far from dominating. In two career postseason starts two years ago, he posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong who has been up an down the entire season with just 15 of 32 starts resulting in quality outings. His numbers are definitely better at home but taking a look at his game log shows that only four of 16 home starts came against playoff teams and one of those came against Washington where he allowed six runs in six innings and overall, he has a 7.94 ERA in five career starts against Washington. The over is 5-1 in Vogelsong's last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* Over (931) Washington Nationals/(931) San Francisco Giants

After last night's game that cruised over the total, primetime games in the NFL are on a 10-0 run going back to the Bears/49ers Sunday night game on September 14th. In those games, there has been an average of 55.8 ppg scored and the public is cleaning up. Linesmakers have been adjusting these totals to try and combat all of the over action coming in but it has yet to make a difference. We are seeing it here as well as this number is higher than it should be based on those past results and what the public is thinking here. Washington has gone over in three straight games with the most recent one coming 10 days ago in a primetime game for everyone to see. According to the talking heads on television, Seattle no longer has a defense that is dominant as it once was. The Seahawks are three games into the season and have faced three of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and taking nothing away from Kirk Cousins but he is not in that category. Seattle is still ranked sixth in total defense in the league and should be able to slow Washington down enough. The Redskins have allowed 37 and 45 points the last two games so that in itself is a trigger for over backers but last week was certainly a fluke no thanks to six turnovers while the week before, the Redskins were killed by penalties and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ninth in the NFL in total defense through four games and that will surprise a lot of people. The Under is 7-2 in the Seahawks last nine games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (477) Seattle Seahawks/(478) Washington Redskins

We have seen the first two games of this series go over the total and with the series now shifting to Detroit, I think we see a lower scoring game on Sunday. While we saw 15 and 13 runs in the first two games, all it was were two innings that sent them over as Baltimore managed to score 12 runs total in the eighth inning in those games. This is obviously a must win game for Detroit and while the offense is powerful, it will come down to pitching and that has been lacking of late. And today, it is David Price that will have to be on his game which is a strong possibility. He has been up and down since coming over to the Tigers from Tampa Bay but he has been solid at home with the exception of a poor start against the Yankees. Baltimore is hitting just .248 against left-handers on the road and the under is 35-15-1 in the Orioles last 51 games against left-handed starters. Baltimore counters with Bud Norris who has had a very solid season with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 28 starts. His numbers are not as good on the road but the fact his team has a 2-0 lead in this series should keep him under control in his first postseason start. Detroit's offense has struggled down the stretch, averaging only 3.5 rpg over its last 11 games. The Under is 20-6 in the Orioles last 26 games as a road underdog. 10* Under (917) Baltimore Orioles/(918) Detroit Tigers

We mentioned yesterday that last season, only one of 10 games in the NL Wild Card and the NLDS finished with fewer than six runs and on average, we saw 8.4 rpg over those 10 games. While we would guess the AL numbers would be higher, they in fact were not. The 10 games in the AL Wild Card and the ALDS had an average of 7.4 rpg which is surprising considering the DH being in effect and overall higher scoring league to begin with. While this matters little to this particular matchup, the point is that perception plays a big part in putting these numbers out and that is clear with this total. The Royals easily went over in their Wild Card game on Tuesday but I think we see the complete opposite tonight as the under is 37-17-4 in the Royals last 58 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. When you think Angles, most think offense seeing that they led the Majors in runs scored but that has not parlayed into many games going over and that is due to solid pitching. Only 46 percent of their games at home went over and the under is 26-12 in the Angels last 38 home games. Jered Weaver gets the call for Game One and he was awesome here, posting a 2.68 ERA in 18 home starts, 13 of which were quality outings. The under is a perfect 10-0 in his last 10 home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Kansas City counters with Jason Vargas and while he has struggled of late, he is working on seven days rest which is big. Also, the atmosphere fits him as he was 6-6 with a 4.53 ERA in 16 starts at home this season and 5-4 with a 2.73 ERA in 14 starts on the road. 10* Under (903) Kansas City Royals/(904) Los Angeles Angels

We have seen the over come through in eight straight NFL primetime games going back to Week Two with the Steelers/Ravens last game to stay below the total. This has been a killer on the books which have had to endure a majority of over action from the public and with another notoriously high-scoring series continuing Thursday, the over bets will continue to pour in. This total has dropped from its opening but that is in part due to early pro money coming in as the public has not gotten a hold of this one yet so it is recommended to wait on this one until game day as this total should again creep back up. Minnesota and Green Bay are both coming off high scoring games last week so that will also get the public involved in more over action. What we saw from Minnesota against Atlanta was an anomaly as it put up 558 total yards of offense but overall, it is still ranked just 21st in the league in that category. Give Teddy Bridgewater credit but facing a bad Falcons defense definitely helped. Green Bay is coming off its worst defensive game of the season so we can expect a rebound. The Packers have struggled offensively and the Vikings defense has started solid and is ranked 9th in the NFL in points allowed. Both teams fall into a similar strong situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 120-63 (65.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Look for a lower than expect scoring game come Thursday. 10* Under (301) Minnesota Vikings/(302) Green Bay Packers

When it comes to playoff baseball, pitching rules as we tend to see a lot more low scoring games or so it seems. The postseason does come with that philosophy and the linesmakers have to adjust their numbers and that is certainly reflected with this total. Last season, only one of 10 games in the NL Wild Card and the NLDS finished with fewer than six runs and on average, we saw 8.4 rpg over those 10 games. Making a comparison, this total is only a half run higher than the Game One total of St. Louis and Los Angeles and that game features the two best pitchers in the National League in Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright. Looking at these two pitchers, this is easily the lowest total that Edinson Volquez has had this season and while Madison Bumgarner has had a total of six in two of his starts, both of those games went over the total with eight runs both times. Volquez comes in very hot as he allowed no runs over his final two starts covering 14 innings and he is riding a six-game quality outing streak. Additionally, he has fashioned a 1.78 ERA across his last 12 starts, and has not lost since his first outing following the All-Star Game. Now the bad news. He has a 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Giants and allowed four runs in 1.2 innings in his only postseason start in 2010. Bumgarner has been solid as well this season but is coming off a poor start in his final regular season outing. Also, he allowed five runs in four innings in his lone start against the Pirates this season. The Over is 6-0 in Volquez' last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game and the Over is 10-4 in Bumgarner's last 14 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. 10* Over (947) San Francisco Giants/(948) Pittsburgh Pirates

Every Monday night game has gone over the last three weeks which has certainly been good for the public and bad for the books. I think this total has been adjusted slightly because of that and we have still seen it rise since the opening. The Patriots have gone under the total in each of their last two games as the defense has been playing spectacular, allowing just 16 points total. Granted, those were against Minnesota and Oakland but the offense they face tonight is not a ton better despite putting up 34 points last week. That total Kansas City scored was a touchdown more than its first two games combined. Overall, Kansas City is 23rd in scoring offense and 24th in total offense while the New England defense is 4th in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense. On the other side, the offense has been an issue for the Patriots and I see that continuing tonight. While the Chiefs are the team here that has a reputation for utilizing their quarterback in vanilla-like fashion, the reality is that New England has become nearly as conservative as Kansas City on offense. New England's offensive line leads the league in terms of hits and pressures allowed. The Kansas City defense has been average, but the environment is going to play a big role with Arrowhead Stadium being one of the loudest environments in the NFL. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offensive line ranks 30th with 41 pressures allowed so both offensive lines are struggling. Here, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off one or more straight overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 89-48 (65 percent) to the under since 1983. The under is 13-5-1 in the Chiefs last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Patriots last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (273) New England Patriots/(274) Kansas City Chiefs

The Giants got off the schneid with their first victory last week against Houston and it will look to get to .500 for the first time this season. This is a tough team to trust offensively as they are still learning a new system and the 30 points scored last week were aided by turnovers. Now they have to hit the road for a divisional game on a short week against a defense that will be playing with a chip on its should after allowing 37 points last week. The Redskins lost by just three points at Philadelphia and while they did allow a lot of points, they allowed less than 400 yards of offense as one of the Eagles touchdowns came on a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense after finishing 18th and 28th the last two years and while we are just two games in, you can tell the unit has improved. Looking at some of the recent numbers, the Giants have gone over the total in two of three weeks including last week while Washington has gone over the total two of three times also including each of its last two games. The Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Under is 11-5 in the Giants last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants are 10-2 to the Under in their last 12 games after one or more straight Overs. The last eight meetings in this series have stayed under the number we are being given this week and is a trend that continues. 10* Under (101) New York Giants/(102) Washington Redskins

The Friday night football schedule has been pretty lame as far as entertainment goes and this Friday should be no exception with two of the worst teams from the AAC squaring off. Both Connecticut and South Florida are 1-2 heading into their conference openers with both of those victories coming against FCS teams and by very narrow margins to say the least. This game looks like a tossup as far as the winner but we can expect another boring contest as far as schemes go and this total is still too high for this matchup. The offenses for both dies have been horrible as the Huskies come in ranked 115th in the nation, averaging 289.3 ypg while the Bulls are not much better at 113th, averaging 300.3 ypg. While it can be said the opposing defenses have something to do with it, it comes down to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and very poor offensive line play. Both sides are willing to grind it out and not take chances that can hurt the offense. The last four meetings in this series have stayed well under the total with the highest scoring game reaching just 35 points. South Florida is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after going over the total last game while going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Connecticut is 4-0 to the under in its last four games following a double-digit home loss while going 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Despite what we have seen this year, this is the highest posted total over the last five meetings. 10* Under (305) Connecticut Huskies/(306) South Florida Bulls

Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. Chicago and San Francisco are both coming off unders last week and that is helping keep this total at a playable number. The Bears and Bills finished at 43 in a game that went to overtime and it stayed under the total of 47. The 49ers and Cowboys finished at 45 points and it stayed under the total of 49. This week, we are catching a number right around the same range and I am expecting a total different outcome. When you think of the Bears and 49ers, you think of defense. Well that is not necessarily the case here. Chicago finished with the 30th ranked defense last season and while it did ok last week against Buffalo, the Bills offense is nothing special at all. The defense will have a much tougher task this week. San Francisco had the fifth ranked defense last season but it did allow 382 yards last week and while still formidable, they do have some issues and the absence of Aldon smith is big. Chicago can take advantage of an average rushing defense which can help open up the passing game. Here, we play the over involving home teams after a game where they forced four or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 36-13 (73.5 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Chicago is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after playing a game at home while San Francisco is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* Over (277) Chicago Bears/(278) San Francisco 49ers

With the whole Ray Rice fiasco taking place in Baltimore, this is a game the Ravens will need to focus on and put the distractions behind them. That being said, this is a spot where the defense can really come up big and I expect that side to dominate on both sides. This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight. Baltimore suffered a bad loss against Cincinnati at home last week but the one thing it did do good was hold the Bengals to five field goals in their first five scoring chances. The Ravens allowed 380 yards which isn't great but it isn't horrible either. Pittsburgh lit up the Browns defense for 490 total yards but I certainly don't see that happening here. The Steelers are still a ruin first team and even when they don't protecting the quarterback is an issue. While the Bengals have a great offensive line, the Steelers do not so we should see a lot of penetration. Offensively, the Ravens have to run the ball and they should now know that after throwing 62 times last week including a bunch of those that were dropped. The Steelers defense is not bad as the one that allowed Cleveland to score 27 points as they had a big lead and took the pedal off the gas. The defenses have dominated this series in the past and will do so again. 10* Under (101) Pittsburgh Steelers/(102) Baltimore Ravens

We waited until late in the week to release the final week of the preseason to try and get as much information as possible as to what a lot of the decisions are going to be in these normally meaningless games to end the exhibition year. There are a lot of factors that go into these final games and motivation is at the top of the list. This comes down to the coaching philosophy and how they want to handle the playing time of the regulars as well as the importance of a win heading into the regular season. Arizona travels to San Diego for the final preseason game of the year for both sides and it is a very interesting dynamic in play because these two teams open the regular season playing each other on Monday night. Which team will be out to win more? It really doesn't even matter here as the big plan for both sides is to keep this game as vanilla as possible and not give up too much away on offense to give the other team an edge heading into Week One. That is the biggest factor in this play. The Cardinals' starters won't play Thursday at San Diego head coach Bruce Arians said. Also, he announced on Monday that fourth-round draft choice Logan Thomas would start and play the entire game against San Diego. "You stay generic," Arians said. "We'll keep it as simple as possible." On the other side, the same holds true as the Chargers starters are unlikely to see action either. All of this adds up to a low scoring game. 10* Under (131) Arizona Cardinals/(132) San Diego Chargers

Detroit and Oakland are both coming off closely contested, low scoring games in their preseason openers. Because of the low scoring games, we will be looking at the over in this one with a lot of that based on what we didn't see last week. The Lions and Browns scored a total of 25 points while the Raiders and Vikings managed a mere 16 points so while praise may be given to all of those defenses, the offenses were far from what we are to expect. And we will see a difference this week. Oakland starting quarterback Matt Schaub played three series last week and did not look very good as he was 3-7 for 21 yards and led the team to only one first down. Of Schaub's four incomplete passes, three were dropped by his receivers, two that were drive killers. Having practiced one more week should have him and his receivers in better shape this week and he should see more reps as well with the word being of the first unit playing past the first quarter and maybe even longer. The Lions meanwhile put up only 13 points with the first team offense seeing very limited action. With a new coaching staff in place, Detroit has new offensive packages and while it may not have showed last week, word is that Matt Stafford has been great during camp, not tossing a single pick during meaningful team drills. Like Schaub, we will see more of Stafford this week. We are catching a good number in my opinion as it has not moved from last week's numbers much and Detroit has a great system on its side. We play the over involving road teams after scoring 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 32-12 (72.7 percent) to the over since 1993. 10* Over (407) Detroit Lions/(408) Oakland Raiders

We had the over here in Game Five and things were looking very good until a 38-point fourth quarter did us in and it resulted in either a push or a loss depending on the number. We are coming right back with it again here tonight. The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all five games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last four games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last four games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. Also mentioned on Thursday, this has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.7 percent to 41.5 percent and we have yet to see a complete offensive games from both sides which is very surprising due to the quality of these teams. While we are on a run of unders in this series, San Antonio is 6-1 to the under in its last seven games while Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the under in its last eight games so we are going against even bigger streaks and I definitely expect that to change tonight. 10* Over (523) San Antonio Spurs/(524) Oklahoma City Thunder

The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all three games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last three games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last three games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. We have seen the total steadily decline since Game Two as it has gone from 209.5 to 208 to 207.5 to 206 for tonight and dropping three and a half points in a few games is a huge swing. This has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.6 percent to 41.1 percent. This could very well be the game that both teams play a complete game on offense and even of the Thunder can improve slightly from their first two games in San Antonio which won't be hard to do, this one goes over easily. The over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last five games following a win of more than 10 points while the over is 12-3 in the Spurs last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (519) Oklahoma City Thunder/(520) San Antonio Spurs

We cashed both the Under in Game Two and the Over in Game Three in this series and we go back to the totals for Game Five as we are again catching some solid value. The last two games of this series have surpassed the number and because of that, the number is now a bucket higher than it was in those previous two games. Additionally, the total is the highest it has been this series (tied with Game Two) that went under the total by 14.5 points. With Indiana's playoff lives on the line tonight, I expect its defense to come up huge as that is the trademark that has gotten them to where they are. The Pacers have allowed Miami to shoot 50.7 percent from the floor during the first four games of this series so now it is time to buckle down to stay alive. The Pacers are now on their first three-game playoff losing streak since losing Games Four, Five and Six against the Heat in the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals and while it is going to be difficult to come all the way back even with a win here, it cannot do so by getting into a shootout with Miami so possessions will play a big role here as well. Last year in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana was facing a similar spot as home in an elimination game and buckled down and won with the game finishing with just 168 points scored. I see this game to play out a similar way. The Under is 4-0 in the Pacers last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (517) Miami Heat/(518) Indiana Pacers

We have seen this total go from one extreme to the other as Miami and Indiana combined for 203 points in Game One and then dropped to 170 points in Game Two. The posted totals have reflected the points scored as they have moved each game according to what happened in the prior game and we are seeing it again here albeit ever so slightly. The defenses were not on the floor in the first game but both stepped up last time out or did they? Miami shot 50.7 percent from the floor despite the low point total and it is hitting slightly over 51 percent through the first two games and a return home should keep that going. Four the Heat's last five home games have surpassed the total and while Indiana has played under mostly on the road of late, the Over is 10-4-1 in the Pacers last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The extended time off also helps the cause as Indiana is 4-0 to the over in its last four games playing with three or more days rest while the over is 18-7-1 in Miami's last 26 games playing with three or more days rest. 10* Over (509) Indiana Pacers/(510) Miami Heat

Similar to the Miami/Indiana game last night, we are seeing a jump in this total due to the results from Game One. In this case, the Thunder and Spurs combined for 227 points which went over the total by close to 20 points and now the over/under has gone from a 208.5 closing in Game One to as high as 212 in some places on Wednesday for Game Two. We are going the value route once again and while neither of these teams are on big over runs which would increase the contrarian values, the defenses are not getting the respect they deserve here. While both offenses are very potent, the defenses are overshadowed as the Thunder are allowing 43.7 percent shooting and the Spurs are allowing 44.3 percent shooting and combined they allow just over 198 ppg. The big factor tonight will be the Oklahoma City defense as it was damaged the most in the opener by allowing 57.5 percent shooting no thanks to giving up 66 points in the paint. On the other side, the Spurs have to shore up as well as they allowed 59 first half points. Kevin Durant has surpassed his scoring average in just one of five meetings this season, while Russell Westbrook shot below 50 percent for the 23rd time in 28 career matchups. The Under is 4-1 in the Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Under is 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) San Antonio Spurs

We are getting some good value with the total tonight after the first game went over the number by 21 points. It was the fourth straight game that Miami has gone over the total as well as sixth in the last seven games and that is a streak we like going against as it offers solid contrarian value. Indiana has been mostly on an under run with six of its last nine games staying below the total and this number again fits. This total is right in the range where Indiana has stayed under the number in a vast majority of its games this season. When the total is in the 180's, the Pacers are 32-12 to the under since the start of the season. Game One saw Miami shoot 51.3 percent from the floor and Indiana shoot 51.5 percent from the floor and both teams are going to be out to tighten up those defenses as they both came in playing well on that side of the floor. Throughout 14 postseason games thus far, Indiana has shot 44.8 percent from the field including 38.2 percent from beyond the arc and that is a lot more realistic of what we should see tonight. The fact that Indiana was able to generate such efficient offense was surprising enough on its own, but the fact it pulled it off against an opponent so familiar with its limited playbook was even more surprising. The Pacers are the better of the two defenses in this matchup and we will see a definite improvement there. The under is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (505) Miami Heat/(506) Indiana Pacers

Miami and Brooklyn are in a possible playoff clinching game and while both closed their first round series with overs, I expect this one to stay below the total even though it not an elimination game for sure. Three of the first four games of this series have gone over the total including each of the last two and because of that, we are getting some added value as this total is two points higher than the last game. While a bucket may not seem like much, we have all seen how some of these come right down to the final possession or final free throw so every point counts. This also goes along the lines of using the zig zag or bounce angle and I have mentioned in the past that while the sides have not been as good in recent years, totals have still done pretty well and with us going against a two-game over run, it is even more in our favor. Going back, Brooklyn has gone over the total is seven of their last 10 games while Miami has also gone over in seven of their last 10 games and those are obviously trends that we prefer to fade as recent games tends to not only sway the public but that in turn changes the numbers. The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the under is 6-2 in Brooklyn's last eight games as a single-digit underdog of seven or more points. 10* Under (737) Brooklyn Nets/(738) Miami Heat

Washington has had three extra days off in preparation for this series and while that could help the defense, I think the offense will benefit more as they should be highly energized against a likely tired Pacers defense. The Wizards went under in their final game against the Bulls but prior to that, they had gone over in six straight games. The Pacers meanwhile stayed under in their final two games against Atlanta as they really picked up the defensive intensity and going back, five of the last six games stayed under. As mentioned, the Pacers could be tired playing with just one day of rest and that will hurt the defense more than anything else. While we are getting a good number based on recent games, this total has a lot of value included in it and part of that is due to the regular season series. All three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but at the same time, the lowest over/under in those three games was 185.5 so you can see the big drop here. Both teams went over in their first round series openers which makes since as it was a feeling out the opposition for both sides and I expect the same to happen here. As mentioned, the over is 6-1 in the last seven Wizards games and the over is 5-2 in the seven games Washington played following three or more days rest while the over is 5-2 in the last seven Pacers home games. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Indiana Pacers

We won with the Wizards/Bulls under last night and we are playing this one for a lot of the same reasons and it is considered even more of a contrarian play. This has quietly been one of the best playoff series as three of the four games have gone into overtime and that certainly has not helped the under. All four games of this series have gone over the total and going back to the regular season and last year, 11 straight meetings have surpassed the total. The over/under has stayed pretty consistent though as the linesmakers know they cannot set this one very much higher as it is at a very high number already. We played the under in Game Three and that obviously did not come through but it is based on the contrarian aspect as well as what was stated in the other analysis. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 46.4 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 43.8 percent from the floor in the first four games so it has been about pace, and overtime, and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, this definitely has a chance of busting the over streak. With Houston trailing 3-1 in this series and now playing back home in a must win situation, this is the game where the defensive effort is picked up. When breaking down by quarter, the magic number is 54 which is the average per quarter to hit the total and through the first four games, the under is 8-6-2 for quarters that have stayed below the 54-point plateau so there have been more lower scoring periods than higher scoring ones which is the ultimate goal. 10* Under (519) Portland Trailblazers/(520) Houston Rockets

In what was expected to be a low scoring series, the first four games between Washington and Chicago have all gone over the total. We have seen the over/under steadily rise from the opening game and while we are getting roughly the same number as in Game Four, it is still on the value side and we are able to get a number a little bit higher. The key here is the Chicago defense which has not looked like the typical Chicago defense as it has allowed at least 97 points in each game, although one of those did go into overtime. The Bulls allowed 91.8 ppg during the regular season which was the fewest in the league and their 43 percent shooting allowed was second best. They have allowed Washington to shoot 44.7 percent which isn't bad but the first two games as home were not good. The good thing is that Chicago has gotten progressively better in each game and we will see a big bounceback at home after allowing the Wizards to shoot 48.7 percent in those first two games in Chicago. The Bulls have gone under the total in 20 of 32 games when they are favored at home and while Washington has been more of an over team throughout the season, I fully expect the home team to dictate the pace and clamp down on defense to keep this series alive. 10* Under (507) Washington Wizards/(508) Chicago Bulls

You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. I feel that is the case here for Game Three between Houston and Portland as we are seeing the total inch up from the first two contests. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a reoccurrence. And the reoccurrence here is going to have the public all over the over once again. Not only have the first two games of this series gone over but going back to the regular season, all six meeting have surpassed the number. Going back even further, the last nine meetings have gone over the total so you know where the public will be lined up on Friday. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 45.3 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 42.1 percent from the floor in the first two games so it has been about pace and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, we should be fine. Going even further contrarian, Portland has gone over the total in five straight games going back to the regular season so that adds some more value. Look for the over streak to be broken on Friday. 10* Under (743) Houston Rockets/(744) Portland Trailblazers

You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. Dallas and San Antonio square off tonight for Game Two and the Mavericks still have to be hurting from blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead as the Spurs went on a 14-0 run to take the opener. That game stayed well below the total, by 28 points to be exact, and because of that we are catching a great number in Game Two. The first game total closed at 203 and for tonight, we are seeing a lot of 198 totals out there so we can use the bounce angle to our advantage. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a recurrence. While this is a purely situational theory, the matchup is on our side as well. Three of the four regular season meetings went over the total and the one game that did stay under, enough points were scored to surpass what we are given tonight. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA and during the regular season, the Spurs and Mavericks ranked second and fourth in shooting percentage respectively and that was not on display in Game One but we should see a significant improvement tonight. Rest is key as Dallas is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games playing with two days rest while the Spurs are 7-2 to the over in their last nine games playing with two days rest. 10* Over (729) Dallas Mavericks/(730) San Antonio Spurs