Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Widow Wiseguy Oregon/USC Pac-10 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 72

No questions asked, this is going to be an absolute shootout tonight. Oregon is scoring 55.1 points/game while USC is putting up 37.4 points/game. USC is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games since 1992. The Trojans cannot stop the Ducks, but they can score with them. Oregon will likely hit their season average for points/game, and thus this one will go way OVER the number. The Ducks are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER 72 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Lakers/Suns ESPN Friday Night "BAILOUT" on OVER 208

Just looking at how these teams have played in recent meetings, it's clear that this total has been set way too low tonight. You also have to factor in that the Lakers are without Andrew Bynum, which means Lamar Odom is taking his spot. With Odom, the Lakers are much more explosive offensively and they can get out and run more because Odom can handle the ball like a point guard. The Suns haven't changed what they do, which is run and gun and penetrate and kick out. They shoot a lot of 3-pointers, but that's because they have so many great perimeter shooters. Long rebounds on miss 3-pointers lead to fast breaks for their opposition, and the Lakers will get plenty of opportunities to run tonight. 5 of the last 6 meetings have seen 214 or more combined points, and these teams are averaging 222.8 points/game over those 6 games. So as you can see, these teams tend to play in shootouts when they get together. Plus, the Suns are 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in home games off an road win scoring 110 or more points over the last 3 seasons. we're seeing an average of 227.2 points/game in this spot. Take the OVER 208 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy FSU/NC State ESPN "Total" BLOWOUT on OVER 59

We expect another shootout similar to what these teams put together when they met up last season. FSU beat NC State 45-42 last year, with the Seminoles putting up 555 total yards and the Wolfpack gaining 538 total yards. Russell Wilson threw for 349 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Christian Ponder threw for 277 and a score. FSU did most of their damage on the ground in that game, rushing for 5 touchdowns. We see no reason this won't be another shootout tonight considering NC State averages 36.0 points/game and FSU averages 34.9 points/game this season. Neither defense has been impressive, and though the Seminoles have put up decent numbers defensively their schedule has been so poor with the exception of Oklahoma and Miami that their stop unit cannot be trusted. The Sooners put up 47 points on this defense. NC State is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 10-1 in Wolfpack last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. You can take this 27-2 (93%) OVER Angle straight to the bank tonight in an absolute shootout. Take the OVER 59 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy UCLA/Oregon ESPN "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 61.5

Both UCLA and Oregon have had 11 days in between games to prepare for one another. This extra time almost always favors the defenses, and it will certainly help the Bruins try to slow this no huddle attack that Oregon runs. UCLA does have a defense that is capable of keeping them in this game, which is a big reason why we are siding with the UNDER. The problem for the Bruins is that they have no offense. In three road games, UCLA is averaging 21.0 points/game and 249 yards/game. They won't get much done against an Oregon defense that is allowing 10.3 points/game and 255 yards/game at home. The Ducks have also allowed only 13 total second-half points in six games this season. Both teams rely primarily on running the football, with UCLA averaging 43 rushing attempts and Oregon averaging 49 rushing attempts per game. This will keep the clock moving as their will be few incompletions. UCLA is 21-5-1 UNDER in their last 26 conference games and 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Bruins are 7-1 UNDER in their last 8 following a bye week. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings with the highest combined points total of 55 points. These 4 trends add up to a 39-7 (85%) UNDER Angle in favor of a low-scoring game tonight. Take the UNDER 61.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 CFB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Florida State/Miami OVER 48.5

This total has been set far too low Saturday, and as a result it has earned the label as our 2010 CFB T.O.T.Y. Miami and Florida State have played in pair of high-scoring games each of the last two years, and we do not see that changing this season. Miami & FSU combined for 72 points in their 2009 meetings and 80 points in their 2008 showdown. FSU won 41-39 in 2008 when the total was set at 40.5, and Miami won 38-34 in 2009 with a total set of 46.5 points. They did raise the total to 48.5 for their 2010 meeting, but they haven't raised it near enough. These are two very explosive offensive teams, with FSU scoring 35.0 points/game and Miami putting up 32.5 points/game. What's scary is that neither offense has reached their full potential yet. The OVER is 8-0 in Seminoles last 8 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The OVER is 5-1 in Hurricanes last 6 conference games. Take the OVER 48.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Nebraska/K-State ESPN "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 50

We'll side with the UNDER tonight in a game where points will be tough to come by, just like it was in 2009 when these teams met up. Nebraska won at home 17-3 in that game last year, with the Huskers putting up a mere 267 yards of total offense and the Wildcats just 293 total yards. Both teams get most of their offense from their running games, which will keep the clock moving tonight with few incomplete passes. Both K-State and Nebraska are only averaging 162 passing yards/game this year. That bodes well for both defenses, especially considering K-State held Nebraska to 101 yards rushing on 45 carries last year, and the Huskers held the Wildcats to 140 yards rushing on 34 carries. The UNDER is 14-2 in Huskers last 16 October games and 7-2 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. Nebraska is giving up 12.7 points/game this season, and Kansas State is yielding 19.7 points/game in 2010. Take the UNDER 50 points here.

***Will take UNDER all the way down to 45 since it's been dropping.***

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pats/Dolphins OVER 46.5

This game has all the makings of a shootout down in Miami Monday. The New England Patriots can score at will, but they cannot stop anybody because of their terrible secondary that is overmatched every week. Tom Brady will put points on the board, but so will Miami, especially through the air. The Pats are allowing 27.3 points/game, and opposing quarterbacks are completing 69.4% of their passes for 260 yards on average. Chad Henne threw for 352 yards on the Jets last week, so just imagine what he can do with Brandon Marshall and company through the air against the Patriots this week. Brady threw for 352 and 323 yards on the Dolphins last year in their two meetings, while Henne threw for 328 yards in Miami's home game against New England last season. Brady and Henne combined to throw for 680 yards in that game. The OVER is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games overall, 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0, and 7-1-1 in Dolphins last 9 home games overall. This makes for a 16-1 (94%) OVER Angle heading into this game Monday. Take the OVER 46.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Stanford/Oregon ABC Saturday Night "BAILOUT" on OVER 65.5

This is a match-up of two of the best offenses in the country, and there's no doubt that there will be offensive fireworks for four quarters. Oregon is scoring 57.7 points/game and Stanford is putting up 48.0 points/game this year. These are very similar teams to what they were a year ago, except now each offense may be even more explosive. Stanford won 51-42 over Oregon in 2009 with 93 combined points, and though we do not expect 93 again this year we have no doubt that they'll combine to score at least 66. Stanford is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Oregon is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons. The Ducks are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in home games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. Stanford is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinal are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. These last four trends add up to a 26-0 Angle in favor of the OVER. Take the OVER 65.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Cincinnati/NC State ESPN TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 55

Both teams are struggling on offense in the early going. That's not good considering the lack of competition that each has faced. But both the Bearcats and Wolfpack are getting after it on defense. NC State is allowing only 14.0 points/game this year while Cincinnati is yielding 17.5 points/game. WOlfpack QB Russell Wilson completed just 10 of 30 passes for 105 yards in their 28-21 win over UCF last week. Cincinnati QB Zach Collaros threw for only 130 yards last week. The UNDER is 6-0 in Bearcats last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The UNDER is 13-3 in Wolfpack last 16 Thursday games and the UNDER is 8-1 in Bearcats last 9 Thursday games. Neither team has combined to scored more than 55 points in any of their first two games. We look for another defensive battle tonight. Take the UNDER 55 points.

6* Widow Wiseguy NFL Sunday "Total" BLOWOUT on Packers/Eagles OVER 47.5

We'll take the OVER in what should be a shootout between the Packers and Eagles today. Aaron Rodgers leads one of the most prolific offenses in the league in Green Bay. Kevin Kolb is the real deal, and threw for more than 300 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of his 2 starts in place of the injured Donovan McNabb last year. Both teams are going to sling it through the air today. Green Bay scored 29.8 points/game last year and 31.9 points/game on the road, while the Eagles scored 28.6 points/game at home. The OVER is 23-9-1 in Packers last 33 vs. NFC. The OVER is 9-2-1 in Eagles last 12 home games. The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 September games, while the OVER is 8-2 in the Packers last 10 games in September. Take the OVER 47.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL Friday "Total" BLOWOUT on Rangers/Twins OVER 9.5

Minnesota starts a rookie in Matt Fox who went just 6-9 with a 3.95 ERA in the minors before getting called up for an emergency start tonight. That's because the Twins went 13 innings in a 10-9 loss to the Tigers last night where they were forced to use scheduled starter Nick Blackburn. So after Fox gets rocked early in this one, the Twins will also have to send a depleted bullpen out there. Derek Holland goes for Texas, and he's just 2-2 with a 5.16 ERA as a starter this year. Holland is 0-2 with a 13.51 ERA and 3.002 WHIP in 2 road starts, and 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA and 2.130 WHIP in 3 career starts against Minnesota. Take the OVER 9.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Phillies/Padres OVER 7.5

We'll take the OVER in this game Saturday considering how badly these starting pitchers have struggled against their opposition. Jon Garland is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in 5 career starts against Philadelphia. Joe Blanton is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in 3 career starts against San Diego. With a total of just 7.5 runs, the clear value is on the OVER tonight. Take the OVER 7.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 National League TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockies/Mets OVER 7.5

After a 1-0 pitcher's duel between the Rockies and Mets last night, we see this game taking a completely different shape with the bats coming out to play. Neither Jeff Francis nor Jon Niese has been spectacular this season. Francis is 4-4 with a 4.67 ERA, including 2-3 with a 5.08 ERA away from home. Niese has faced the Rockies twice over the last 2 seasons, going 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.942 WHIP. Francis is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Mets. New York is scoring 4.5 runs/game at home this season while the Rockies are putting up 4.8 runs/game in all games. The OVER is 4-0 in Francis' last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 5-0 in Mets last 5 games following a win. The OVER is 5-0 in Mets last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 games against a left-handed starter. Take the OVER 7.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL Saturday Night "Total" BLOWOUT on White Sox/Orioles UNDER 9

No starter has been as good as Gavin Floyd has over the last couple months. The 6-foot-6 right-hander has not yielded more than one earned run in six consecutive starts and is 5-2 with a 1.06 ERA in his last 11. He carried a perfect game into the sixth inning Sunday as he beat Oakland, finishing with one run and four hits allowed over seven frames in a 4-1 win. Floyd has posted a 2.53 ERA in 3 career starts against Baltimore. Kevin Millwood sports a 3.30 ERA in 10 career starts against the White Sox. The Whtie Sox are 82-45 UNDER (+30.0 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. Millwood is 34-14 UNDER (+18.1 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997. The UNDER is 6-1 in Floyd's last 7 road starts. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the Orioles last 6 games overall. Take the UNDER 9 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

8 of 9 meetings this season have gone OVER the number with an average of 12 runs scored. Also the Rays and Yankees have combined to score 9 or more runs in 8 of the 9 meetings. Take the OVER 8.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL Tuesday Night "Total" BLOWOUT on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

We could see the Blue Jays putting up 9 runs on their own in this one after beating the Orioles 9-5 yesterday. Kevin Millwood has allowed at least 2 first-inning runs in 9 of his last 10 starts. Millwood is 2-9 with a 5.84 ERA this season, including 0-1 with a 10.95 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The righty is also 2-6 with a 4.91 ERA in 11 career starts against Toronto. Ricky Romero has given up 14 runs in his last 16.1 innings pitched over his last 3 starts. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Millwood's last 8 starts. The OVER is 12-3-1 in Blue Jays last 16 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater. Take the OVER 8.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NL Thursday Night "Total" BLOWOUT on Mets/Dodgers OVER 8

We'll take the OVER in this game between the Mets and Dodgers. The reason is simple. Both teams start struggling pitchers in Hisanori Takahashi and Hiroki Kuroda. Takahashi is 1-1 with a 10.12 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Kuroda is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Takahashi has posted a 6.53 ERA in 6 road starts in 2010 as well. Kuroda is 0-3 with a 7.27 ERA and 2.327 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Mets. New York is 28-14 OVER (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in Takahashi's last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 4-0-1 in Kuroda's last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The OVER is 11-2-1 in Kuroda's last 14 starts as a favorite overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the OVER 8 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockies/Reds OVER 8.5

Considering these are two of the best offenses in all of baseball, and Cincinnati's ball park favors hitters, we'll take the OVER Sunday. Colorado is scoring 4.8 runs/game with Cincinnati putting up 4.9 runs/game, including 5.4 runs/game at home. Aaron Cook is 0-5 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.766 WHIP on the road this season, so we would not be surprised to see the Reds put up 9 runs on their own in this one. Take the OVER 8.5 runs.

6* Widow Wiseguy American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Tigers OVER 9.5

We saw 21 combined runs in Game 1 Monday with a 12-9 win by the Tigers over the Orioles. Now, both bullpens are taxed, and that leaves the door open for another OVER in Game 2 tonight. But the chances are this game will have gone OVER the number by the time the starters exit. Baltimore starter Jake Arrieta is 2-2 witha 6.15 ERA and 1.633 WHIP this season. In his last 3 starts, Arrieta is 0-2 with a 9.45 ERA and 2.251 WHIP. Armando Galarraga is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA this season for respectable numbers. But he has been torched since throwing his near-perfect game. Galarraga is 1-1 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Baltimore is 10-2 OVER (+8.1 Units) in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is also 10-2-1 in the Orioles last 13 games as an underdog. Take the OVER 9.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dodgers/Giants UNDER 8.5

In pitcher-friendly San Francisco, this game will have no problem going UNDER the posted total. Jonathan Sanchez is 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.213 WHIP this season for the Giants, and he's also 5-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home. Vicente Padilla is coming off one of his best starts of the year, allowing 2 earned runs in 7 innings against the mighty Yankees. Padilla is 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA in nine career starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 11-2 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in home games against division opponents this season. San Francisco is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games this season. The Dodgers are 17-3 UNDER (+13.8 Units) in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 9-2 in Dodgers last 11 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take the UNDER 8.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Interleague TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Reds/Mariners OVER 6.5

With the DH in play today, and with Johnny Cueto on the mound for the Reds, we're finding excellent value with the OVER in this contest tonight. Cueto has posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.824 WHIP in his last 3 starts, yielding 17 earned runs in 17 innings. Cliff Lee has been far from spectacular this season, sporting a 3.68 ERA in 4 home starts. Lee is 3-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in 7 career starts against Cincinnati. Cueto is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. Cincinnati is 17-4 OVER (+12.9 Units) vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season, and we're seeing 12.0 runs/game in this spot. The OVER is 11-2 in Cueto's 13 starts this year, including 10-1 in night games. Take the OVER 6.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 189

The UNDER has cashed in 3 straight games with 185 points or less scored and you can chalk up a 4th straight UNDER tonight. Both the Lakers and Celtics know how to stop one another at this point, but each team is struggling to find easy buckets. That's why this series has turned into a defensive battle, and with the pressure of a Game 6, another low-scoring contest is in store. Neither team has scored more than 96 points in any of the last 3 games. Boston did shoot 56% from the field in Game 5, but only managed 92 points. The Lakers are relying on Kobe Bryant, and as a result he is taking a lot of shots at the end of the shotclock which is why they are not performing up to par offensively. Assists have been few and far between, and the Lakers are 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Celtics last 8 games following a win, and the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is also 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Take the UNDER 189 points in Game 6.

6* Widow Wiseguy Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Giants UNDER 7.5

The Orioles and Giants have played to the UNDER more times than not this season, to say the least. A big reason is because neither team has much firewpower offensively, while the Giants have the best staff in baseball. The UNDER is 38-22 in all Orioles games this season, including 21-9 in their road games. The UNDER is 17-12 in Giants home games this year. The UNDER is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 23-6 in Orioles last 29 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The UNDER is 7-1 in Chris Tillman's last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Jonathan Sanchez's last 15 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Both Sanchez and Tillman are quality starters who won't surrender much in the pitcher-friendly confines of San Francisco's AT&T Park. Take the UNDER 7.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Finals PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Lakers +4/UNDER 190

We expect the Lakers to go in for the kill in Game 4 now that they have Boston on their heels, and another excellent defensive effort tonight similar to how Game 3 played out. The familiarity between these teams makes it difficult for either squad to flourish offensively, and that's why we see another low-scoring game in this one. The Lakers are a superb 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after allowing 85 points or less this season. The Celtics are 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, and the UNDER is 14-6-1 in Lakers last 21 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Take the Lakers and the UNDER as our NBA Finals PARLAY OF THE YEAR!

6* Widow Wiseguy ESPN Wednesday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cubs/Brewers OVER 8.5

Both Carlos Zambrano and Randy Wolf are past their primes, and it's really starting to show this season. Zambrano is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.744 WHIP and he just cannot seem to get anything to go his way. Wolf is 4-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.583 WHIP this season for Milwaukee. The OVER is 9-2-1 in Wolf's 12 starts this year. Wolf is 18-3 (86%) OVER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 7-1 (88%) in Zambranos last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 7-1-1 (88%) in Wolf's last 9 starts overall. Take the OVER 8.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL East TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rays/Blue Jays OVER 9

We could easily see one team or the other scoring 9 runs on their own in this one, especially the Rays. Toronto's Brian Tallet is 1-1 with a 6.11 ERA this season, including 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA in home starts. Tallet faced the Rays three times last year, losing all 3 starts and allowing 18 earned runs and 33 base runners in 14.2 innings for an 11.04 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in his career vs. Tampa. Rays' starter Jeff Niemann has allowed 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in his last 2 starts at Toronto, totaling 13 innings pitched. The Blue Jays are scoring 5.7 runs/game against right-handed starters this season and the Rays are scoring 5.8 runs/game in road games. Take the OVER 9 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Magic/Celtics OVER 189

This series has shifted to a high-scoring one ever since three straight unders in the first three games. Orlando has changed the way that they have approached the Celtics, which is to push the tempo because getting out in transition gives them the best chance to win. Falling into a half-court game with Boston has not worked, so we expect the Magic to force the action in Game 6. Games 4 and 5 each were much higher-scoring, and as a result each went OVER the posted number. With what's at stake in this game, neither team is going to give up in the end no matter how far they are behind. But we definitely see a close game, and fouls in the end will also help push the final score OVER the number. A system backing this play tells us to take the OVER on home teams where the total is in the 180 to 189.5 range after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more. This trend has gone 32-7 (82%) to the OVER since 1996 and it's 10-1 (91%) to the OVER through the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 35-16 in the Celtics' last 51 games following a loss. Take the OVER 189 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Suns/Lakers NBA on TNT Total on UNDER 218

The first 4 games of this series have all gone OVER the final posted number. But these games have become lower-scoring as this series has progressed. We saw 235 points in Game 1, 236 in Game 2, 227 in Game 3 and 221 in Game 4. Game 3 and Game 4 only went over the total due to fouls in the end by the Lakers as each contest was well on pace to go under. We are certain Game 5 will see the fewest combined points of this series, and thus we'll select the UNDER. The Lakers really struggled to defend in Phoenix, and returning home tonight their focus is squarely on the defensive end. Kobe Bryant has informed his teammates that this will be the foucs. "My message is offensively, we're going to score enough points," Bryant said. "Defensively, we've got to do a much better job. That's my message. We've got to grind, do a better job staying in front of them." Phoenix is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, with the UNDER coming through 92% of the time. We're seeing an average score of Phoenix 101.5 and their opponents 98.6 in this spot. We expect the Lakers to win this game somewhere in the 110 to 100 range with 210 or less combined points with what's at stake. Take the UNDER 218 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Lakers/Suns #1 TOTAL OF THE SERIES on UNDER 221.5

The total started out at 210 points in Game 1, but after three straight OVERS in this series the odds makers have set the number at 221.5 for Game 4. No question we are seeing awesome value on the UNDER Tuesday in what we see as being a much lower-scoring game than the first three contests of this series. The UNDER is 11-0 in Lakers last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 and 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games as a road favorite in this same range, making for a PERFECT 17-0 UNDER Angle. Take the value and take the UNDER in Game 4.

6* Widow Wiseguy Suns/Lakers NBA on TNT Game 2 Total on OVER 215.5

The Suns and Lakers are prone to shootouts when they get together, especially of late. In the last 8 meetings, 6 have resulted in combined scores of 221 or more points. In those 8 meetings, they have combined to average 220.6 points/game. The Suns are 40-20 OVER (+18.0 Units) when playing 3 or less games in 10 days since 1996. Phoenix is 27-14 OVER (+11.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are 42-26 OVER (+13.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are averaging 222.7 points/game in this spot. The OVER is 8-2 in Suns last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. This makes for a 13-2 (87%) Angle in favor of the OVER tonight in Game 2. Take the OVER 215.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Suns UNDER 211

After both the Lakers and Suns swept their second-round series in 4 games, each will come into Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals a little rusty. The defensive execution will be there, but offensively both teams will be out of sync for Game 1. The UNDER is 7-1-1 (88%) in the Suns last 9 road games, with a highest combined score of 208 points. The Lakers will be able to control the tempo at home tonight and slow this game down. Phoenix is a much better defensive team this season, especially of late where they have allowed 102 or less points in 9 straight playoff games. The Lakers have allowed 103 or less in 8 of their 10 playoff games. The Lakers are 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. Phoenix is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 31-16 UNDER (+13.4 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 11-3 in Lakers last 14 playoff games as a favorite and the UNDER is 9-2 in Lakers last 11 conference finals games. Take the UNDER 211 points as our NBA Playoffs T.O.T.Y.!

6* Widow Wiseguy Celtics/Magic Game 1 "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 189.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the league hit the hardwood in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Sunday. The Boston Celtics allow 94.3 points/game on the road this season while the Orlando Magic allow 92.9 points/game at home. That's why it is no surprise that these are the last two teams standing in the East. It also shouldn't come as a surprise that when these teams meet, then tend to play in low-scoring games. The UNDER is 7-1 in the the last 8 meetings, with the highest combined score of 190 points. So over their last 8 meetings, they have only topped this 189.5-point total one time and it came by a mere half-point! We have seen 185, 190, 163, 161, 183, 158, 180 and 189 points in the last 8 meetings, respectively, and an average of 176.1 points/game. The Magic will be a bit rusty after a long break, but their defensive effort will still be there. The Celtics are likely to come out a bit flat as well after their series upset of the Cavaliers. The Magic are 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. This is going to be an ugly, defensive struggle in Game 1. Take the UNDER 189.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 194.5

This game won't come close to 194 points tonight with how important Game 5 is to both teams. We saw 184 combined points in Game 4 and we expect to see an even lower-scoring game tonight. Both teams know what they need to do to stop their opposition. The Cavs have to keep Rajon Rondo out of the paint, and there's a very good chance Lebron James guards him tonight to help accomplish that. The Celtics have to keep Lebron James out of the lane, and they have been doing a good job of it with the exception of Game 3 where they just didn't show up. These are two teams that know how to defend one another now and they have the tools to do so, which will make points hard to come by in Game 5. Boston is 38-20 UNDER (+16.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, with an average combined score of 182.0 points/game. The UNDER is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Cavs' last 5 games playing on 1 days' rest. The UNDER is 19-7 in Cavs last 26 Conference Semifinals games. Take the UNDER 194.5 points as our 2010 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year!

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Magic/Hawks UNDER 193

This Game 4 tonight between the Hawks and Magic represents our strongest Total release in the 2nd round of the 2010 playoffs. This one is an absolute no-brainer tonight with the way these games in Atlanta have been played between these teams. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta, and we've seen combined scores of 169, 170, 170 and 180. They haven't even come close to scoring 190-plus points and we don't expect it to happen tonight, either. When Atlanta plays at home, they control the tempo which is a slower pace than Orlando likes to play when they are at home. The Hawks will play with some pride tonight on the defensive end, while the Magic will be getting after it defensively to try to close out this series. Atlanta is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons, and we're seeing 182.6 points/game in this spot. They always tend to play in lower-scoring games after a bad defensive effort. That also holds true with the following trend. The Hawks are 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 2 seasons, and we're seeing 175.0 points/game in this situation. Take the UDNER 193 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Jazz/Lakers TOTAL OF THE SERIES on UNDER 202.5

Plays on the UNDER on any team after 5 or more consecutive overs, good team outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game are 125-69 (64%) to the UNDER since 1996. Just this year this trend is 12-4 (75%) to the UNDER. The Jazz have gone over the number in 5 straight games and as a result, the odds makers have moved this total up from 198.5 points in Games 1 and 2 to 202.5 points in Game 3. That gives us 4 points of value on the UNDER Saturday. Games between the Lakers and Jazz in Utah have been much lower scoring on average. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Utah, with combined scores of 177, 196, 202 and 174 points, respectively. With what's at stake in Game 3 for the Jazz, look for them to get after it defensively and hold the Lakers below 100 points for the first time in this series. The Lakers are 21-7 UNDER (+13.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. The Lakers are 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) as a road underdog this season. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The 3 days' rest both teams have also favors a low-scoring game Saturday, because extra preparation gives both teams the opportunity to practice how they want to defend their opposition. The Lakers will work on their pick and roll defense, while the Jazz will work on when to double team down low. Look for each team to be sharp defensively in this one as a result. Take the UNDER 202.5 points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Spurs/Suns TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 205.5

Once again, the odds makers have failed to set this total in Game 2 as high as it should be set. The Total closed at 204.5 and 205 in most places for Game 1, and after 213 combined points were scored they have only adjusted it 0.5-1.0 points. All these teams have been doing when they face one another is play in shootouts this season. The OVER is 4-0 in all 4 meetings this year, with combined scores of 220, 223, 213 and 213 points. Also, the last four meetings in Phoenix have gone OVER the posted total with the lowest combined score at 213 points. Phoenix is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents this season, with an average combined score of 223.6 points/game. The Spurs are 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts this season, with an average combined score fo 218.5 points/game. Over the last 5 years, in Game 2 in the second round of a playoffs series, the OVER has gone 36-8 (82%). Take the OVER 205.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Spurs/Suns GUARANTEED Game 1 PARLAY on Suns -3.5/OVER 203.5

We look at how these teams have fared this season against one another, and we're certain the Suns cover and this game finishes well OVER the number in Game 1. The home team is 3-0 this season, with Phoenix winning 112-101 in early April and 116-104 in December. The combined scores in these three meetings this year have been as follows: 220, 223 and 213. The reason this total has been set so low is due to the fact that both the Spurs and Suns played in defensive battles in their first series. The Suns have gone UNDER the number in 5 straight and the Spurs have gone UNDER the total in 4 straight. But with the way these teams have played each other this season, there's no question that the right play is on the home team and the OVER in Game 1. Phoenix is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents this season, with an average combined score of 224.7 points/game. Phoenix is 14-4 ATS against Southwest division opponents this season. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Take the Suns and the OVER in Game 1.

6* Widow Wiseguy Celtics/Cavs Game 1 "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 191.5

The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers have played in many fierce battles over the past three seasons.  As a result, both teams are very familiar with one another.  That makes it easy for each team to take away the strengths of their opposition.  Boston will be double-teaming Lebron James all game, forcing other players to beat them and as a result the Cavs won't put up a big number on the scoreboard.  Cleveland's main focus is stopping Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett and they have the personnel to defend these three players, which makes it tough for Boston to put up a big number as well.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 Conference Semifinals games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the Celtics last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Cavaliers last 22 Conference Semifinals games.  Take the UNDER 191.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 189.5

In a pressure-packed Game 6 we'll side with this contest finishing UNDER the number tonight.  Game 5 resulted in 178 combined points being scored with a 91-87 victory for the Bucks.  As these series' ware on, teams become more familiar with what each other likes to do offensively, and it makes it easier to stop defensively.  As a result, there tends to be lower-scoring games at the end of every series.  Atlanta is 30-16 UNDER (+12.4 Units) when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER 189.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Jazz/Nuggets NBA TOTAL OF THE SERIES on OVER 215

This is a no-brainer tonight with the nature of the way these teams have played when up against one another, especially in Denver. 3 of the first 4 games in this series have gone OVER, with combined scores of at least 223 points in the three OVERS. The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Denver with an average combined score of 226 points. The fewest points scored were 214 in the last 8 meetings, so as you can see these teams have no problem putting up plenty of points when they meet in Denver. Utah is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) vs. division opponents this season. The Jazz are 31-14 OVER (+15.6 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1996. The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest and the OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the OVER 215 points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Suns/Blazers NBA Western Conference PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Suns -6/OVER 202

The Suns' players have stated that they cannot get in a half court game with Portland, and both of their losses to the Blazers in this series were a direct result of letting Portland control the tempo. Both of their wins have been a result of Phoenix forcing the issue. The Suns scored 119 points in Game 2 and 108 points in Game 3, both victories. With Phoenix returning home tonight, they will control the tempo and they will win this game with room to spare as they put up a big number which will also help get the OVER. The Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Suns are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 6-1 in Suns last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take the Suns and the OVER as our Western Conference Parlay of the Year, guaranteed to go 2-0 or you play for free Tuesday!

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 194.5

The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Once again, the odds makers have failed to lower this total when it should be in the 180-range. The Spurs are 22-7 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER 194.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Heat/Celtics NBA on TNT PARLAY on Boston -1/OVER 179

Kevin Garnett is out for the Celtics, and Boston will miss his defensive presence, but Garnett is not the same offensive player he once was. The Celtics can now go small and they will score more points because of it which really favors a high-scoring affair. Boston still has home-court advantage with with Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo leading the way, the Celtics have plenty of talent to win this game in a shootout. Boston is 27-9 OVER (+17.1 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years since 1996. Boston is 11-1 SU against Maimi over the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home meetings. Take the Celtics and the OVER as our NBA on TNT PARLAY Tuesday!

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA on TNT 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 212

We'll side with the OVER on the Jazz/Nuggets with another total that has been set too low in this series. These teams combined for 239 points in a 126-113 Denver victory in Game 1, and that high-scoring affair should not be a surprise. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings with a combined score of 218 or more points in five of those six contests. Now Mehmet Okur is out for the Jazz, which doesn't hurt their offense but it certainly hurts their ability to defend the Nuggets. Utah will have to go small tonight with a heavy dose of Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap inside. The Jazz are in trouble defensively, but this should allow them to push the tempo offensively and try to get more easy buckets in transition with their big men. Utah is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season. The OVER is 31-15-1 in Jazz last 47 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver. Take the OVER 212 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA 1st Round PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Lakers -7.5/UNDER 197

The Lakers dominate Sunday behind great defense and efficient half-court offense. L.A. welcomes back Andrew Bynum which makes them automatically a better defensive team with his presence inside. Having three tall bodies in Bynum, Odom and Gasol in the paint will give the Thunder fits. The Lakers certainly have saved their best for the playoffs because even though they won the #1 seed in the West, there's no question they didn't play up to their potential this season. Injuries had a lot to do with that, but the Lakers are getting healthy at the right time. L.A. still went 34-7 at home this season while winning by an average of 8.5 points/game. The Lakers have won 10 of 11 meetings with the Thunder over the last 3 years, including a 5-0 home mark. L.A. has gone 14-4 UNDER against Northwest division opponents this season. The Lakers are 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Defense gets more intense in the playoffs, and you will see the Lakers really getting after it in Game 1 to erase all doubts about how this team isn't as good as last year's group. Take the Lakers and the UNDER.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 NBA #1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kings/Pacers OVER 206

You don't have to look far to find that when the Kings and Pacers get together, a high-scoring affair usually ensues. The last 5 meetings in this series have all seen 215 or more combined poines. With a total set at just 206 Tuesday, this is our best over/under release for the entire 2010 season. The Kings and Pacers don't have much to play for at this point, so they aren't putting much effort into the defensive end. Tyreke Evans returns tonight for the Kings, which will certainly give them a boost offensively as he has missed the last 5 games with a concussion. The Pacers are 27-13 OVER (+12.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 12-5 in Pacers last 17 vs. Western Conference. Take the OVER 206 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Knicks/76ers OVER 210

The Knicks have allowed 110 or more points in 12 of their last 18 ball games. They have scored 240 points combined in their last 2 games for an average of 120 points/game. Philly has given up 100 or more in each of their last 5 games, and 10 of their last 12 games overall. With the way these teams are playing right now, and considering 3 of the past 4 meetings have seen 211 or more combined points, this is a pretty easy choice going with the OVER tonight. The OVER is 9-2 in Knicks last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Knicks last 9 road games. Take the OVER 210 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Nuggets/Cavs U 206

The last two meetings in this series have both gone UNDER the number with combined scores of 193 and 196 points. Cleveland is a tremendous defensive team at home, giving up just 93.4 points/game. We don't see either team scoring over 100 points tonight in what will be a defensive battle between two of the top squads in the league. Denver is 21-7 UNDER (+13.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 34-15 UNDER (+17.5 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 24-9 in Nuggets last 33 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take the UNDER 206 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER 206

Both teams really want a win in their last game before the All-Star break. Look for both teams to amp up their defense because of it, more than any normal game. The UNDER is 39-20 in the last 59 meetings in this series. The last 5 meetings in this series have all seen 205 or less combined points. San Antonio has scored 98 or less points in 3 straight games, all on the road, and have allowed 101 or less in all three of those contests as well. The Spurs are a superb 75-38 UNDER (+33.2 Units) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1996. They always step up their defense following a home loss to an opponent last meeting. The Spurs are 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games after playing a road game this season. They have gone UNDER the number in 3 straight road games. Denver is 49-33 UNDER (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 206 points.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Knicks OVER 200.5

This is a very low total for a Knicks' home game. The Bucks are 24-10 OVER (+13.0 Units) after 4 or more consecutive unders since 1996. The Knicks are 20-7 OVER (+12.3 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons. New York is 7-2 OVER in their last 9 Friday games. Take the OVER.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Vikings/Saints OVER 52.5

With the #1 and #2 offenses in the league squaring off Sunday in the dome, there's no question that there will be some offensive fireworks. Minnesota scores 29.6 points/game this season while the Saints put up 32.6 points/game. We see each team getting at least 4 touchdowns Sunday, but the difference in the game will likely be which team gets a key stop in the end. Minnesota has the better defense and is likely the team to stop New Orleans a few more times than they get stopped. The Vikings are 6-0 OVER as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 20-6 OVER in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The Saints are 25-8 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992. Both teams have so many weapons that it's simply asking too much to keep either to less than 28 points. Take the OVER 52.5 points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Cowboys/Eagles Wild Card TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 45

The first two meetings between these teams went well UNDER the number. With a total of 49 in their first meeting, Dallas won 20-16 for 36 combined points. They dropped the total to 47 points in their second meeting, and Dallas won 24-0. Now, they dropped the total 2 more points, yet it's still too low. Dallas is playing tremendous defense, giving up just 17 points in their last 3 games combined for an average of 5.7 points/game. With the Eagles' offensive line beat up, they won't be able to do anything offensively in this game either. But we do expect their defense to rise to the occasion and make up for it. Dallas has gotten their running game going the last few weeks, and the Eagles know they have to get their running game going Sunday to try and keep Dallas off balance. Otherwise, the Cowboys will be able to just pin their ears back and get after McNabb all game long just like they have in the first two meetings. Dallas is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) off a division game this season. The Eagles are 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more since 1992. The UNDER is 8-1 in Dallas' last 9 games overall and they continue their stellar defense Saturday in a low-scoring defensive battle with the Eagles. Take the UNDER.

6* Widow Wiseguy GMAC Bowl "Total" BLOWOUT on CMU/Troy OVER 63

This game features two of the best offenses in the country. Troy puts up 33.1 points/game while Central Michigan is at 33.2 points/game for the season. Both squads love to pass the ball, especially Troy who averages 331 passing yards/game. Central Michigan is very balanced, posting 245 passing yards and 173 rushing yards/game. The Troy defense allows 278 passing yards/game, so expect Central Michigan to easily top their season average, and for Troy to keep pace. Troy is 9-1 OVER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 Bowl PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +6/UNDER 49

We'll take Tennessee and the UNDER tonight in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl as our 2009 Bowl Parlay of the Year. This season was a bit of a letdown for Virginia Tech after dominating the ACC this decade and winning several conference championships. But no BCS berth, and the Hokies won't be fully happy to be here. Tennessee is in the middle of a rebuilding process, and it was a solid season for Lane Kiffin in his first year on the job. The Volunteers will be ready to go tonight behind one of the best defenses in the land. Tennessee allows just 21.0 points/game and 309 total yards/game. The Hokies have a solid defense themselves, which will keep this one UNDER the number. Virginia Tech allows 15.7 points/game and 300 total yards/game this year. The Hokies are 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) when playing on a Thursday over the last 3 seasons. Tennessee is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992. Take Tennessee and the UNDER.

6* Widow Wiseguy SMU/Nevada Hawaii Bowl "Total" BLOWOUT on OVER 71.5

This game pits two of the best offenses in the nation against one another. Nevada being the best, scoring 40.6 points/game and putting up 522 yards of total offense per contest. SMU is averaging 27.9 points/game and 380 total yards/contest. Defensively, Nevada allows 284 passing yards/game which plays right into SMU as the Mustangs put up 267 passing yards/game in their aerial assault. Nevada is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Nevada is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Nevada has gone OVER the total in their last 2 games, combining with their opponents to score 83 and 77 points, respectively. Take the OVER 71.5 points.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Tuesday "Total" Money Maker on Nets/Cavs UNDER 196.5

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the Nets and Cavs, with a combined score of 188 points or less in each contest. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall. This has been a very low-scoring series, and that should continue here tonight. We especially like this UNDER considering the betting public has pushed it up to 196.5 from 193, clearly placing the value with the UNDER. The Nets score just 89.2 points/game this season while the Cavs average 99.7 points/game, so neither team is blowing teams away with their offense. Cleveland is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season, cashing 89% of the time with an average combined score of 188 points/game in this sport. Take the UNDER 196.5 points.

6* Widow Wiseguy CFB Friday Night "Total" BLOWOUT on EMU/Toledo OVER 64

This is a big total, but it won't be a problem for EMU and Toledo to reach the OVER when this one is all said and done. EMU gives up 38.4 points/game for the season, including a ridiculous 48.2 points/game on the road. Toledo gives up 39.3 points/game this season, but they are putting up 31.0 points/game at home. Look for Toledo to put up nearly 50 points in this one and EMU to top 25 points in what is an inevitable shootout. The last meeting in Toledo saw 80 combined points with a 52-28 Toledo victory. Toledo is 24-8 OVER (+15.2 Units) in home games since 1992. The Rockets are 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road since 1992. Take the OVER 64 points.

6* Widow Wiseguy WVU/Cincinnati ESPN 2 "Total" BLOWOUT on WVU/Cincinnati OVER 53.5

With two explosive offenses Friday, the final score of this game should fly well OVER the posted total with no problem. Cincinnati just played in a shootout with Connecticut, edging out the Huskies 47-45 to remain unbeaten. We do not foresee 90 combined points in this one, but it's not out of the question to say the least. The Bearcats are scoring 40.0 points/game overall and 46.5 points/game at home. They'll take care of most of this total on their own. WVU scores 28.3 points/game on the season which is respectable, and defensively they have been poor on the road in allowing 28.0 points/game. Both teams have put up at least 23 points each in their last 2 meetings. We see that trend continuing tonight. The OVER is 7-0 in Mountaineers last 7 games as an underdog. The reason they are an underdog tonight is because Cincinnati cannot be tamed offensively. The OVER is 17-6 in Mountaineers last 23 games in November. The OVER is 5-1 in Bearcats last 6 games in November. Look for both offenses to be on top of their games tonight now that we are in the stretch run of the season. Take the OVER 53.5 points.

6* 2009 MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Saints OVER 54

With the Saints scoring 45 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this season, taking the OVER on Monday night is really the only move. That's especially the case considering they face an explosive Falcons' offense and a suspect Atlanta defense. The Falcons were exposed last week, giving up 37 points and 414 yards of total offense to the Cowboys. They did manage to put up 21 points, which they have scored 21 or more in 4 of 6 games this season. The Saints are giving up 30.5 points/game in their last 2 games, which means Atlanta should be able to put up plenty of points Monday to help out with the OVER. Now back to this ridiculous New Orleans' offense. The Saints are scoring 39.7 points/game this season and putting up 427 yards of total offense/game. They cannot be tamed right now and Atlanta does not have the defense that is going to slow them down. Last year, the Saints won 29-25 at home vs. Atlanta and the Falcons won 34-20 at home vs. New Orleans as both meetings saw 54 combined points exactly. It's clear that both teams are improved offensively this season, which means they should have no problem combining to score more than 54 points Monday. The Saints are 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Saints are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in home games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Get ready for some offensive fireworks Monday night ladies and gentlemen. We are predicting this one will have gone OVER by the end of the 3rd quarter. Take the OVER 54 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Celtics/Cavs TNT "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 185

This is a no-brainer here tonight folks as both Cleveland and Boston will be rusty to start the season offensively as they try and find their rhythm. But there's no question each will pick up right where they left off last year defensively. Boston gave up 94.0 points/game on the road and Cleveland allowed 88.2 points/game on their home floor. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 games between these teams played in Cleveland. They combined to score 183, 181, 143, and 165 points in those 4 meetings, respectively. Cleveland is 76-47 UNDER (+24.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996. Take the UNDER 185 points here.