Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Widow Wiseguy Bulls/Nets TNT "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 183.5

*No Analysis Monday*

6* Widow Wiseguy Lakers/Spurs Sunday Total "BLOWOUT" on UNDER 189.5

*No Analysis Sunday*

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Pacers UNDER 187

*No Analysis Friday*

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies/Lakers UNDER 194

This total has certainly been inflated tonight in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers. This game will be played with high intensity at the defensive end with what's at stake for both teams. Los Angeles is fighting to make the playoffs, sitting just one-half game ahead of the Utah Jazz for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. Memphis is fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, sitting one-half game behind the Denver Nuggets for the No. 3 seed in the West. Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 90 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 30-10 (75%) over the last 5 seasons. Take the UNDER 194 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Oregon/Louisville OVER 130.5

*No Analysis Friday*

6* Widow Wiseguy Kniicks/Nuggets ESPN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 206

Denver and New York have combined for 213 or more points in each of their last eight meetings dating back to 2008. Enough said. Take the OVER 206 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy College Basketball TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin/Michigan State UNDER 122

Michigan State won at Wisconsin 49-47 for 96 combined points in their first meeting of the season. I look for a similar low-scoring affair tonight in the rematch at Michigan State. These are two of the best defensive teams in the country as the Badgers allow 55.8 points/game, while the Spartans yield 59.8 points/game. Michigan State is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers since 1997. Take the UNDER 122 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rutgers/Villanova UNDER 130.5

I believe the books have set the number too high tonight in this Big East contest between Rutgers and Villanova. Villanova has played in a lot of low-scoring games of late as five of its last six contests have seen 131 or fewer combined points. I look for the Wildcats to control the tempo tonight against the offensively-challenged Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Scarlet Knights are only averaging 66.4 points/game on the season, and that number is sure to dip throughout the rest of the year. That's because Rutgers has recently lost leading scorer Eli Carter (14.9 PPG) for the season due to a fractured leg. The UNDER is 6-0 in Scarlet Knights last 6 road games. The UNDER is 11-1 in Wildcats last 12 games following a ATS win. The UNDER is 7-1 in Scarlet Knights last 8 overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 overall. Take this combined 29-3 (91%) angle backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight. Take the UNDER 130.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 191.5

Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors come in riding two-game losing streaks after a pair of poor defensive performances from each. That's why I believe this total has been inflated tonight, and I look for both teams to really focus on bouncing back defensively tonight, which will keep the final score of this game under the posted total. Golden State gave up 50.5% shooting and 23 made 3-pointers in a 109-140 loss at Houston. and 50.5% shooting in a 98-119 loss at Oklahoma City. Memphis yielded 50.7% shooting in a 90-96 home loss to Phoenix, and 51.4% in a 92-103 setback at Atlanta. Remember, this is a Memphis team that gives up just 90.0 points/game overall, including 86.7 points/game at home. It is also only scoring 93.0 points/game overall and 92.0 points/game at home. The last meeting between Memphis and Golden State occurred about exactly a month ago with the Grizzlies winning 94-87 on January 9th for 181 combined points. Memphis is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Grizzlies are 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 191.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Notre Dame/Syracuse ESPN Big Monday Surefire on UNDER 134

I look for a low-scoring game tonight between Big East rivals Notre Dame and Syracuse. These teams have played each other once over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 2-0 in those two contests with each team winning at home. Notre Dame won 67-58 at home in 2012 for 125 combined points, while Syracuse won at home in 2011 70-58 for 128 combined points. Not counting overtime, Syracuse and its last three opponents have combined for 112, 122 and 120 points. It has become a much lower-scoring team without the services of third-leading scorer James Southerland (13.6 PPG), who remains out due to eligibility issues. Notre Dame is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Syracuse is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. Notre Dame is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Take this combined 35-3 angle backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight. Take the UNDER 134 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2013 Wild-Card TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Seahawks/Redskins UNDER 46

The Seattle Seahawks are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They are giving up just 15.3 points/game on the season, and 12.0 points/game over their last five contests. Washington has improved defensively as the season has gone one, giving up 20.0 points/game in their last seven games overall. The books have missed their mark badly with this total, inflating it to the point where there is a ton of value backing the UNDER. Remember, these are two rookie quarterbacks who will be more worried about not making mistakes rather than making big play after big play. Washington is 52-30 UNDER (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992. The Redskins are 48-25 UNDER (+20.5 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Pete Carroll is 29-14 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest in all games he has coached. Mike Shanahan is 13-5 UNDER (+7.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents as the coach of Washington. Take the UNDER 46 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2012-13 College Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Minnesota/Texas Tech OVER 54.5

Texas Tech is capable of nearly covering this OVER in its own. It is scoring 37.7 points/game this season while averaging 501.4 total yards/game. Minnesota will get its points as well against a Red Raiders' defense that is allowing 40.3 points and 427 yards/game away from home this year. Texas Tech is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. The Red Raiders are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in Red Raiders last 5 Bowl games. The OVER is 4-0 in Red Raiders last 4 vs. Big Ten. Take this combined 23-0 angle backing the OVER straight to the bank. Take the OVER 54.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Surefire on Central Michigan/Western Kentucky OVER 56.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will easily combine to score more than 56.5 points tonight in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Central Michigan has scored 30-plus points in six consecutive games, while Western Kentucky has combined with three of its last four opponents for 58 or more points. The Chippewas have a terrible defense that gives up 33.3 points/game and 441.2 total yards/game this season. Central Michigan is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 56.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons/Nets UNDER 191

The books have set the number too high tonight in this contest between the Detroit Pistons and Brooklyn Nets. These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league. Brooklyn is scoring 96.0 points/game, while Detroit is scoring 94.3 points/game, including 89.8 points/game on the road. Both teams are solid defensively, however. Brooklyn is giving up 93.8 points/game while Detroit is allowing 97.3 points/game. Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BROOKLYN) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games against opponent after having lost 4 of their last 5 games are 45-20 (69.2%) over the last 5 seasons. Both teams will be fighting extra hard defensively tonight to try and get a win after tough recent stretches for each squad. The UNDER is 5-0 in Pistons last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Nets last 7 games following a S.U. win. Take the UNDER 191 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Broncos/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 49.5

I look for another low-scoring battle similar to the 37-6 beat down the Broncos handed the Raiders in the first meeting. Denver will get its points, but it will also limit the Raiders to a small point total in this one, which will keep the final combined score UNDER the posted number. The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 308.2 total yards/game. I look for them to jump out to a big lead and run out the clock in the second half with their running game, and short passes on third downs to slow the game to a snail's pace. Oakland is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 49.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Eagles/Saints MNF "Total" BLOWOUT on OVER 51.5

Get ready for a shootout tonight in the Superdome. New Orleans is scoring 27.1 points and giving up 30.9 points per game for an average combined score of 58.0 points. This team is simply built for shootouts with an explosive offense behind Drew Brees, and the worst defense in the league that is giving up 474.7 yards per game. Philadelphia has yet to reach its potential offensively this season, but I have no doubt it will put up its highest scoring output of the season against this New Orleans defense. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series as these teams have combined for 51 or more points in all five. Take the OVER 51.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy CFB Friday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Nevada/Air Force OVER 65.5

Neither of these teams plays defense, but each has potent offenses. Nevada and Air Force should have no problem combining to score 66-plus points tonight because of it. Nevada is scoring 40.6 points/game and ranks 6th in the country in total offense at 541.1 yards per game. They rank just 73rd in total defense, giving up 411.1 yards per game. Air Force is scoring 32.6 points per game and ranks 27th in total offense at 463.6 yards per game. The Falcons rank just 83rd in total defense at 427.4 yards per game allowed. Air Force is a perfect 9-0 OVER after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take the OVER 65.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Cardinals/Rams NFL Thursday "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 39.5

I look for a defensive battle Thursday night between two of the worst offenses in the league. Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in total offense at 271.7 yards/game, while St. Louis ranks 27th at 287.2 yards/game. Both teams have underrated defenses that will keep the offenses in check tonight. St. Louis is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in this series. Take the UNDER 39.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Browns/Ravens NFL "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 44

All you have to do is look at the recent history between these teams to know that oddsmakers have inflated this total Thursday. Plus, both teams are working on a short week, which always tends to favor the UNDER in these Thursday night games. Baltimore and Cleveland have combined to score 41 or less points in each of their last six meetings, which makes for a perfect 6-0 UNDER trend pertaining to tonight's total of 44. Cleveland has an underrated defense year in and year out, and that's the case again in 2012. Baltimore has one of the best stop units in the league, and after facing three very good offenses in the Eagles, Patriots and Bengals, the Ravens will have no problem shutting down this weak Browns' offense. Take the UNDER 44 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Rays/Angels AL Friday Night "BAILOUT" on OVER 8

Oddsmakers have set the number too low tonight. Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb and Los Angeles' Dan Haren are getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this total set in a game that I foresee nine or more combined runs being scored. Cobb is 4-7 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 11 starts this year, while Haren is 7-8 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 18 starts. Both guys have struggled badly of late. Cobb is 1-4 with a 6.93 ERA in his last five starts, while Haren is 3-2 with a 7.81 ERA in his last five outings. The OVER is 5-1 in Rays last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 4-0 in Haren's last 4 starts. Take the OVER 8 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Yankees/A's AL Thursday Night "BAILOUT" on OVER 8

The New York Yankees have been hitting the cover off the ball recently. New York has scored 5 or more runs in 10 straight games, including 6 or more in eight of those contests. They could easily take care of this OVER by themselves tonight. Oakland has scored a combined 29 runs over its last five games, an average of 5.8 runs/game. The A's will have a chance to get their bats going as well against Freddy Garcia tonight. Garcia is 2-2 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.728 WHIP in seven starts this season, and 7-7 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 22 lifetime starts vs. Oakland. The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in this series, cashing 86% of the time. Take the OVER 8 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Angels/Tigers ESPN Monday Night Surefire on UNDER 10

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight by listing this total between the Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers at 10 runs. That's especially the case considering Detroit is home to a pitcher-friendly ballpark that yields less home runs than most parks. Both Rick Porcello and Ervin Santana are better starters than they are getting credit for in this one. Porcello has been on his game of late, going 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last three starts. Santana was rocked in his last out, which is a big reason why his ERA (5.75) is inflated. I look for him to come back motivated and pitch very well tonight. Santana is 6-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in eight lifetime starts vs. Detroit, and the UNDER is 6-1-1 in those games. Santana is 10-1 UNDER (+9.0 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Santana is 31-15 UNDER (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Santana's last 4 starts vs. Tigers. Take the UNDER 10 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Phillies UNDER 7

This game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets tonight screams pitcher's duel. Two of the best starters in the league in Cole Hamels and R.A. Dickey go toe-to-toe. Hamels is 10-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 16 starts this season, while Dickey is 12-1 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in 16 starts. Dickey is also 3-3 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in seven lifetime starts vs. Philly. Hamels is 48-31 UNDER (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 35-17-3 in Hamels' last 55 starts during game 3 of a series. The UNDER is 9-1 in Dickey's last 10 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 5-0 in Dickey's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Take the UNDER 7 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tigers/Rangers UNDER 10.5

Oddsmakers have simply set the bar too high in this contest between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers. Both Doug Fister and Roy Oswalt are lacking the respect they deserve considering this total set has been posted in double-digits. Fister is 1-4 despite a 2.72 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in eight starts this year, while Oswalt is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in one start. Oswalt was a great addition to this Texas rotation. He made his first start of the year five days ago, allowing just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings. Fister is 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA in his last two starts against Texas. This guy is underrated year in and year out as he just keeps posting great numbers on a regular basis. Fister is 27-11 UNDER (+15.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. Fister is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 10-0 in Fister's last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The UNDER is 11-0 in Fister's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER 10.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Giants/A's West Coast "BAILOUT" on OVER 7

The San Francisco Giants and Oakland A's should have no problem combining to score 8-plus runs tonight to get the OVER. Tim Lincecum has lost it, going 2-8 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 14 starts this season, 1-4 with an 8.13 ERA and 1.719 WHIP in seven road starts, and 0-2 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in his last three outings. Both Lincecum and Oakland starter Jarrod Parker have face their opposition once this season, and it didn't go very well. Lincecum gave up 4 earned runs in 4 innings of a 2-6 loss to Oakland on May 20th, while Parker yielded 6 runs in 2 innings of a 6-8 loss to the Giants on May 18th. The OVER is 11-4 in Giants last 15 road games. The OVER is 35-16 in Giants last 51 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Lincecum is 9-2 to the OVER when the total is 7 or less this season. Take the OVER 7 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Heat/Thunder ABC "Total" BLOWOUT on OVER 196

The Oklahoma City Thunder have simply been scoring points at will in the playoffs. They have put up 102 or more points in six straight games, also scoring 98 or more in each of their last nine. This is a fast-breaking team that can get from rim to rim faster than another other team in the league. That was evident by their 24 fast break points in Game 1. Miami tried to slow the game down too much in Game 1, getting just 4 fast break points. That didn't work, so they'll try and run much more in Game 2 tonight to try and create easy opportunities for James and Wade with the Thunder's defense on its heels. The OVER is 9-2 in Heat's last 11 games overall, 8-2 in Thunder's last 10 games overall, and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the OVER 196 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Clippers/Spurs TNT Thursday Night "BAILOUT" on UNDER 194.5

These teams combined for 200 points in Game 1. Both shot ridiculously well from 3-point range as the Spurs made 13-of-25 (52 percent), while the Clippers made 9-of-19 (47.4 percent) beyond the arc. It's safe to say that nearly team is going to shoot that well again from the 3-point line. As a result, there's a very good chance this Game 2 goes UNDER the number. The total was set at 191.5 for Game 1, so with it at 194.5 for Game 2, we are receiving 3 points of value on the UNDER. Teams make adjustments after Game 1, which makes points harder to come by for both squads. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Spurs last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Get ready for a defensive battle tonight. Take the UNDER 194.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 196

After a very high-scoring Game 1 in which the Thunder did whatever they wanted to offensively, I look for both teams to clamp down defensively in Game 2, especially the Lakers. The total was set at 192.5 in Game 1, and they combined for 209 points. The total has now been jacked up to 196 for Game 2, which gives us a full 3.5 points of value. The Thunder aren't going to score 119 points and shoot anywhere near 53.0 percent from the field again. The UNDER is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Los Angeles is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The Lakers are 88-62 UNDER (+19.8 Units) in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent since 1996. Take the UNDER 196 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Clippers/Grizzlies TNT Wednesday Night "BAILOUT" on UNDER 182.5

This series has become more low-scoring as it has progressed. After combining for 197 and 203 points in their first two games at the end of regulation, the Clippers and Grizzlies have combined for 173 and 174 points in their last two games at the end of regulation. I fully expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in Game 5. The UNDER is 16-6 in Grizzlies last 22 games following a S.U. loss. Memphis is 20-9 UNDER (+10.1 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The Grizzlies are 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 182.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Spurs/Jazz TNT Monday Night Surefire on UNDER 199.5

Once again, oddsmakers have set the bar too high in Game 4 of this series between the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz. Each of the first three games in this series saw 197 or less combined points. Game 3 was the lowest-scoring contest yet, and I expect Game 4 to be even more low-scoring. Teams get more familiar with each other as a series goes on, making it tougher for the offenses to execute. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 4th game of a playoff series are 38-14 (73.1%) since 1996. Utah is 17-4 UNDER (+12.6 Units) in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996. The Jazz are 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 199.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA First Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Nuggets UNDER 202

The Lakers and Nuggets are averaging just over 192 points/game through the first three games of this series. Oddsmakers have inflated the total set in Game 4, and we'll capitalize by backing the UNDER in a very important contest that will see great defense from both sides. Take the UNDER 202 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Nets UNDER 193

The New York Knicks used a lot of energy in beating the Boston Celtics 118-110 last night at home. I look for New York to come out deflated tonight while shooting the ball much more poorly than they did against the Celtics. There's no way in hell New York makes anywhere near 19-of-32 (59.4 percent) from 3-point range again. The New Jersey Nets are handcuffed right now as they are going to be without their two best players in Deron Williams and Gerald Wallace. This will make points hard to come by, and the Nets will struggle offensively in this one. The Nets and Knicks have combined for less than 193 points in each of their first two meetings this season. The UNDER is 24-6 in Knicks last 30 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 21-5 in Knicks last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the UNDER 193 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Rockets UNDER 200.5

There is a lot riding on this game between the Phoenix Suns and the Houston Rockets tonight. Houston (32-26) would be the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today. They are 1.5 games clear of ninth-place Utah and 2 games ahead of tenth-place Phoenix (30-28). With only a few games left, you can bet both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively to get a win tonight. Plus, with so much at stake, shooting could be difficult given how nervous many of these players will be. This has been a low-scoring series thus far this season. The Suns and Rockets have combined for 180, 185 and 185 points in their first three meetings this season, respectively. Neither Houston nor Phoenix has reached 100 points. I look for that trend to continue tonight as these teams go UNDER the number for the 5th time in as many meetings. Take the UNDER 200.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Lakers/Celtics NBA on ABC Surefire on UNDER 179.5

The Lakers and Celtics are primed for a defensive battle this afternoon. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league, and two of the worst offensive teams as well. In this heated rivalry, I believe defense will win out today. The Lakers only give up 86.9 points/game at home, and the Celtics only yield 89.7 points/game overall. Boston has really struggled offensively on the road, scoring just 87.9 points/game away from home this year. Five of the last six meetings in this series have seen 178 or less combined points. The Lakers beat the Celtics 88-87 in overtime in their first meeting this year on February 9th. That game was tied 82-82 at the end of regulation for 164 combined points. Take the UNDER 179.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Hornets/Blazers NBA Monday Night "BAILOUT" on UNDER 187.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in this game Monday between the New Orleans Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers. These two always seem to play in low-scoring games when they meet up, and I certainly believe this line has been inflated tonight because of it. The Blazers and Hornets have played twice this season with combined scores of 161 and 180 points. Oddsmakers set the total at 182 for their first meeting on January 16th and 177 for their second meeting on February 10th. As you can see, they have set this total 10.5 points higher than last time despite having such a low scoring output in their first two meetings. Now you can see why I believe there is so much value with this UNDER tonight. Portland is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 187.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Heat/Blazers TNT Thursday Night "BAILOUT" on UNDER 197

I look for a low-scoring game tonight between the Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers. Portland actually matches up with Miami about as well as possible. They have guys like Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batum who have the height to contest shots by Lebron James and Dwyane Wade. They also have Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge inside to defend the basket if either Wade or James is to get by those two. Miami isn't going to put up a huge number on this Blazers defense tonight. Both teams are solid defensively as the Heat give up 94.4 points/game and the Blazers allow 93.4 points/game. Portland will try to slow this game down to give themselves the best chance to win, and they certainly have an excellent chance of controlling the tempo at home tonight in front of a rowdy crowd. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 12-4 in Trail Blazers last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER 197 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Bulls/Spurs ESPN TOTAL OF THE WEEK on OVER 191.5

The Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs should have no problem combining for 192 or more points tonight. I expect this one to see 200-plus by game's end. Chicago and San Antonio have combined for 208, 197 and 191 points in their last three meetings, respectively. Both teams used to be known as great defensive clubs, but each is lighting up the nets this season, winning games with their offense. The Spurs average 101.5 points at home while the Bulls put up 98.2 points on the road. The Spurs have really been an OVERS machine of late, and I expect that trend to continue here tonight. San Antonio is 6-0 to the OVER in their last six games overall with combined scores of 194, 219, 203, 208, 234 and 213 points. They are averaging a combined 215.4 points/game in their last five. Take the OVER 191.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy East vs. West All-Star "Total" BLOWOUT on OVER 284

This game will see 285 or more combined points tonight. The All-Star game saw 291 combined points last season and there just seems to be less defense played each year. They let players dunk and easy, wide-open shots are the norm any more in this game. Take the OVER 284 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Spurs/Blazers NBA Tuesday Night "BAILOUT" on UNDER 190

Both the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers are going to come into this game tired. San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, while Portland will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 8 days. These are two jump shooting teams, so tired legs certainly make it tough on them. I look for the majority of shots to come up short tonight and clank off the front of the rim. Points will be very hard to come by in what will be a low-scoring affair. Portland is giving up 92.9 points/game this season and San Antonio yields 94.2 points/game. The UNDER is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 12-3 in Trail Blazers last 15 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. These teams have met once this season with the Spurs winning 99-83 at home for 182 combined points. The Spurs and Blazers have combined for 194 or less points in 11 straight meetings, including 189 or less in eight of those 11 contests. Take the UNDER 190 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 197

The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies will play part in a low-scoring affair Saturday night. In their first meeting this season, the Grizzlies won 91-90 on the road. I have great reason to believe that this game will play out similarly considering how tired these teams will be coming in. Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back, and Memphis is playing their 4th game in 5 days while Golden State is on their 3rd game in 4 days. I look for a lot of shots to come up short tonight as both teams struggle offensively. Take the UNDER 197 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Friday Side & Total Parlay on Grizzlies +8.5/UNDER 193

Reasons for Grizzlies: Oklahoma City is in for a big letdown tonight after beating the Dallas Mavericks last time out. That was their biggest win of the season as the Mavs knocked them out of the playoffs in the Western Conference Finals last season. Memphis wants revenge from getting knocked out in the playoffs by Oklahoma City in the Western Conference Semifinals last year. The motivation is clearly going to be in the corner of Memphis tonight, which is coming off two straight impressive wins with a 100-97 overtime victory over Denver and a 96-77 road win over Atlanta. The Grizzlies are 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Fatigue will not be a factor tonight as they put their best foot forward against a hated rival.

Reasons for UNDER: Memphis has been one of the best UNDER teams in the league this season, especially away from home. The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER in all road games this season, and we've seen 189 or less combined points in all 12. That makes for a perfect 12-0 UNDER angle pertaining to tonight's total set of 193. Memphis is 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games overall, and we've seen 189 or less combined points in all seven contests. The oddsmakers have clearly set the number too high for this rivalry game which is going to feature all-out defense on both ends. Take the Grizzlies and the UNDER here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Kings/Warriors NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 199

This one is as easy as it gets folks. Oddsmakers are making a serious mistake by setting this total set below 200 points. The Kings come in on 2 days' rest and the Warriors come in on 3 days' rest, so both teams will be ready to get after it tonight. I look for each to try and get out in the open court as much as possible with their fresh legs. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, and these teams have combined to score 207 or more points in all 5 meetings. As you can see, when Sacramento and Golden State get together, a shootout is usually the end result. The OVER is 8-2 in Warriors last 10 games overall. Take the OVER 199 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Thursday Night "BAILOUT" on UNDER 193

This total has been inflated tonight due to being nationally televised. Public bettors love betting on TV games, and public bettors also like the OVER more times than not. I'll side with the UNDER in a game that should be played in the 175-185 range. The Clippers and their opponents are combining to score 192.5 points/game at home this season. Sure, that's basically right on the total for tonight's game. But the Clippers are going to come into this one fatigued after a hard-fought game against the L.A. Lakers last night. That's why I'm expecting a slower tempo in this one. Memphis and their opponents are combining for an average of 177.0 points/game on the road this season. The Grizzlies are 8-1 UNDER in all road games this year, and I'm certainly willing to play them UNDER the number on the road again tonight. Memphis is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last 7 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Take this combined 32-1 (97%) UNDER Angle straight to the bank tonight. Take the UNDER 193 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy T'Wolves/Clippers ESPN "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 190.5

Oddsmakers have set the number too high tonight in the Minnesota vs. Los Angeles Clippers game. The Los Angeles Clippers are a quality offensive team at full strength, but they are not healthy right now. Chris Paul is their best player and their floor general, and without him on the floor, this offense has been struggling. The Clippers are averaging a mere 85.0 points/game in their last two contests, and they are 3-0 to the UNDER without Paul. Minnesota has become a much better defensive team this season, especially of late. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Timberwolves last 4 games, and we've seen combined scores of 178, 185, 184 and 167 points in those four contests. The Clippers are a very profitable 8-4 to the UNDER in all games this season, including 6-2 to the UNDER in home games. Minnesota is 11-2-1 to the UNDER in all games, including 4-0-1 to the UNDER in road games where they are combining with their opponents to average 178.6 points/game. As you can see, this number has been inflated. Take the UNDER 190.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Knicks/Grizzlies UNDER 194

This one is about as easy as it gets folks. Both the New York Knicks and Memphis Grizzlies are combining with their opponents to average well under the posted total tonight. The Grizzlies are combining with their opponents to average 186.1 points/game this season, while the Knicks are combining with their foes to average 189.0 points/game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 overall, 5-0 in Knicks last 5 games following a win, and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. Take this 13-0 UNDER angle straight to the bank tonight. Take the UNDER 194 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Heat/Warriors NBA Tuesday Night "BAILOUT" on OVER 194.5

The Miami Heat are pushing the tempo this season with a "pace and space" philosophy that head coach Erik Spoelstra picked up from Oregon football coach Chip Kelly. It's working as the Heat are off to a fast start while simply outscoring their opponents. Miami is 8-1 this season while scoring a whopping 108.3 points/game. I expect them to get to their season average against this soft Golden State defense tonight, while the Warriors score enough points to push this one OVER the number by game's end. Golden State and Miami have combined to score 197 or more points in 11 of their last 13 meetings. The Warriors are 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) in home games after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 15-5-1 in Heat last 21 games as a favorite, including 8-2 in Heat last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in this series, including 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State. Take the OVER 194.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Jags/Falcons Thursday NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 42.5

This total is way inflated tonight. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly, putting too much stock in last week's efforts between both teams. The Falcons played in a 31-23 shootout against a terrible Carolina defense, while the Jaguars played in a 41-14 shootout against a terrible Tampa Bay defense. Jacksonville scored two defensive touchdowns, forced seven turnovers, and only managed 325 yards of offense. That score was certainly misleading to say the least. Even after a 41-point effort, the Jaguars are still scoring just 14.8 points/game, including 11.2 points/game on the road. Jacksonville does have one of the best defenses in the league which has allowed them to stay competitive. The Jaguars rank 4th in total defense at 302.3 yards/game, but they also rank dead last in total offense at 260.1 yards/game. These are two teams that have been prone to going UNDER the number all season. Jacksonville is 10-3 UNDER in all games and 6-0 UNDER in road games, while Atlanta is 9-4 UNDER in all games and 5-1 UNDER in home games. The UNDER is 8-1 in Atlanta's last 9 games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Jags last 6 road games, 6-0 in Jags last 6 vs. a team with a winning record, 7-0 in Falcons last 7 following a win, 7-0 in Falcons last 7 games on fieldturf, and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The UNDER is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 home games. These last six trends add up to a 35-0 Angle in favor of the UNDER. Take the UNDER 42.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Army/Navy CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 57.5

This is as easy as it gets folks. Army and Navy are a perfect 5-0 to the UNDER in their last 5 meetings, scoring a combined 48 points or less in all five. These two teams are familiar with one another as they play every year, and both still use the triple option. This is going to be a hard-fought, defensive battle once again Saturday. Take the UNDER 57.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy USC/Oregon Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 67.5

These team played in a 53-32 barn-burner last year, and I expect a similar shootout Saturday. Oregon is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in home games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. The Ducks are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Oregon is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 67.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Vikings/Packers MNF PARLAY OF THE MONTH on Green Bay -12.5/OVER 49.5

I will side with the Packers and the OVER tonight on ESPN's Monday Night Football. Green Bay has been crushing their opposition at home this season. Their home numbers alone make the Packers and the OVER the right choice tonight. Green Bay is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at Lambeau Field this year, averaging 38.3 points while allowing 20.0 points/game. Minnesota is giving up a whopping 26.5 points and 385 yards/game on the road in 2011. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Green Bay is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 7-2 in Green Bay's last 9 home games. Minnesota is 23-9 OVER (+13.1 Units) vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992. The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between Minnesota and Green Bay, and we've seen 52 or more points scored in five of the last six. Take Green Bay and the OVER Monday.

6* Widow Wiseguy Troy/FIU Sun Belt PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Troy +7/OVER 55

Odds makers have missed their mark badly with this side and total Tuesday. We'll take advantage and side with Troy the OVER in a game that will see offensive fireworks all night. FIU beat Troy 52-35 last season for 87 combined points, with the Panthers accounting for 669 total yards and the Trojans putting up 411 total yards. Troy returns starting QB Corey Robinson, who threw for 299 yards in that game. FIU has QB Wesley Carroll and eight offensive starters back from last year's squad. The OVER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings in this series, with 56 or more combined points scored each time. FIU will be able to put up a decent amount of points against a Troy defense that is giving up 34.7 points and 461 yards/game. The Trojans will be able to put up their fair share of points as well. Troy is averaging 401 total yards/game, and they put up 423 yards on Clemson and 457 yards on Arkansas earlier this season. Troy is 8-1 OVER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons, and we're seeing an average of 70.6 points/game in this spot. The OVER is 20-7 in Trojans last 27 games as a road underdog, and 9-2 in Trojans last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The reason we are siding with Troy tonight is because of the revenge factor, plus they get an extra 3 days to prepare for FIU. Troy last played on October 15th, while FIU played last Tuesday on October 18th. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Golden Panthers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. This is a 15-0 ATS Angle backing the Trojans. Plus, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Troy and the OVER tonight.

6* Widow Wiseguy Dolphins/Jets AFC East TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 43.5

We look for a defensive battle tonight in this Monday Night Football showdown in Week 6. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are each poor offensive teams, but both know how to stop people. This is going to be another slug fest similar to Miami's 10-6 win at New York last season. In that game, the Dolphins managed just 131 total yards while the Jets were held to 280 yards of offense. New York ranks 29th in the league in total offense (297 yards/game) in 2011. Their defense wasn't spectacular during their 3-game losing streak on the road, but they played three very good opponents in the Raiders, Ravens and Patriots. New York is only giving up 13.5 points/game and 296 yards/game at home this year. Miami has had a very hard time putting the ball in the end zone this season. The Dolphins are scoring 17.2 points/game on the year, including 16.0 points/game on the road. The UNDER is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 road games overall, and 14-4 in their last 18 games as a road underdog. Miami is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. With Matt Moore at quarterback and starting running back Daniel Thomas banged up, the Dolphins are not going to fare very well offensively against this hungry Jets defense tonight. Take the UNDER 43.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Packers/Falcons OVER 52.5

The Packers and Falcons combined for 69 points in a 48-21 victory by Green Bay last year in the playoffs. We expect a similar point output tonight as two struggling defenses go up against two high-powered offenses. Green Bay is scoring 37.0 points and averaging 429 yards/game this season, while giving up 24.2 points and 407 yards/game. Their offense remains one of the best in the league, but the defense has certainly taken a step back in 2011. Atlanta is scoring 22.5 points and averaging 360 yards/game, while allowing 26.2 points and 373 yards/game. They allowed Tarvaris Jackson to throw for more than 300 yards on them last week in a 30-28 victory over Seattle, so you can just imagine what Aaron Rodgers is going to do to them tonight. Rodgers went 31 of 36 passing for 366 yards with four total touchdowns in their win over the Falcons last year, and he is completing 73.0 percent of his passes for 1,325 yards with 12 TDs and two interceptions this season. The OVER is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games overall, and 10-2 in their last 12 Week 5 games. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Falcons last 6 games following an ATS loss, and 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the OVER 52.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ohio/Buffalo UNDER 53

Ohio features one of the best defenses in the country, while Buffalo has one of the worst offenses in the land. We look for a very low-scoring game between these two teams Saturday in a game that will easily stay UNDER the posted total. Ohio is only giving up 15.8 points/game and 290 total yards/game, while Buffalo is averaging just 17.8 points and 336.2 yards/game. We don't see Buffalo topping 20 points Saturday, and we don't see Ohio eclipsing 30. Buffalo's defense has played well in two home games, giving up 12.0 points and 295 yards/game. This has been a very low-scoring series as it is over the past five seasons. Buffalo and Ohio have combined to score 51 or less points in five straight meetings, making for a perfect 5-0 angle pertaining to Saturday's total set. Take the UNDER 53 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Big East TOTAL OF THE YEAR on South Florida/Pitt UNDER 52

Odds makers and the betting public have been looking at the huge point totals that South Florida has been putting up in their last three games. They scored 37 against Ball State, 70 against Florida A&M and 52 against UTEP. Ball State and UTEP are two of the worst teams in the FBS, and Florida A&M is not even an FBS team. Now South Florida plays a legitimate defense this week and they won't even come close to matching any of their point totals over the last three weeks. The only legitimate defense the Bulls have faced this season was Notre Dame, and they managed just 254 total yards against the Irish. Pittsburgh's offense has been struggling as well. The Panthers put up just 268 total yards against that same Notre Dame team last week, but their defense played well in a 12-15 loss. Pitt beat South Florida 17-10 last year, and four of the last six meetings have seen 48 or less combined points. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-3 in Panthers last 10 games as an underdog. South Florida is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons, and we're seeing an average of 35.9 points/game in this spot. Pitt is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER 52 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on NC State/Cincinnati OVER 60.5

The NC State Wolfpack have been hit hard by injuries to their defense. They still have a solid offense, but their defense will be tested against a Cincinnati offense that ranks No. 4 in scoring (51.3 points/game). NC State is without four defensive starters, and their backups have been hurt, too. Senior captain J.R. Sweezy is out with a broken foot, and his backup Thomas Teal suffered a broken foot as well. DE Jeff Rieskamp has a shoulder injury and is questionable to go tonight. Art Norman had been starting in Rieskamp's place, but he was knocked out of their last game against South Alabama and did not come back in. Weakside linebacker Terrell Manning injured his knee in the first half last week and did not return. The good news for NC State is that they have a solid QB in Mike Glennon, who has thrown for 745 yards and eight touchdowns to one interception on the season. Their offense can at least try and keep up with Cincinnati tonight as their defense gives up touchdown after touchdown. The Bearcats can do it all. Cincinnati has Zach Collaros at QB, who has thrown for 521 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions. They also have a rushing offense that is averaging 239.0 yards/game on the ground, mostly from Isaiah Pead (257 yards, 9.5/rush, four TD). NC State gave up 406 yards in a 43-21 victory over Liberty and 438 yards in a 27-34 loss to Wake Forest. This will be, by far, the best offense the Wolfpack has faced yet. The Bearcats defense is nothing special, either. Cincinnati is giving up 385.7 yards/game to the trio of Akron, Austin Peay and Tennessee. They allowed the Volunteers to rack up 531 total yards, including 405 passing in a 23-45 loss in their second game of the season. We see both teams eclipsing the 30-point mark tonight in an absolute shootout. The OVER is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 games in September, and the OVER is 5-1 in Cincinnati's last 6 games as a favorite. Take the OVER 60.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pirates/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

Get ready for a slugfest today in hitter-friendly Arizona. The Pirates and Diamondbacks send two of the worst starters in the league to the mound Wednesday. Ross Ohlendorf is 1-2 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.831 WHIP in seven starts this season for Pittsburgh, and Wade Miley is 3-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in six starts this year for Arizona. Look for both starters to be knocked out by the end of the 5th inning in this one. Arizona is 11-2 OVER (+9.2 Units) in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 10-1 in Pirates last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is 13-2-1 in Pirates last 16 games following a win. The OVER is 3-0-1 in Miley's last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Take the OVER 9.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy LSU/Mississippi State ESPN "Total" BLOWOUT on UNDER 50

The total for this game has been set way too high Thursday. Both teams return a lot of experience from last year's squads, and each has an excellent defense. Mississippi State's offense is improved, but it's not going to be very successful against one of the best defenses in the country tonight in LSU. The Tigers kept Oregon in check in their opener, then allowed just three points to Northwestern State last week. LSU is in a world of hurt offensively with their backup QB. They only threw for 98 yards against Oregon, and managed just 273 total yards for the game. LSU won last year's meeting with Mississippi State 29-7, and both teams were held in check offensively. The Bulldogs actually outgained the Tigers 268-264, but LSU got most of their points thanks to five interceptions from Mississippi State quarterbacks. We fully expect another defensive battle here tonight. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 50 (LSU) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more offensive starters returning are 28-7 (80%) to the UNDER over the last 10 seasons. The UNDER is 9-3 in Tigers last 12 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 33-16-1 in Bulldogs last 50 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 conference games, while the UNDER is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 conference games. Take the UNDER 50 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Saints/Packers NFL Side & Total PARLAY on New Orleans +4.5/OVER 47

We are expecting the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers to play a back-and-forth game that sees plenty of offensive fireworks tonight. Both teams are very evenly matched, with the only real edge going to Green Bay in home-field advantage. Where the Saints have the edge, though, is in the running game. They will be the more balanced team offensively, thus more tough to stop. There's no question that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to be able to move the ball and score points with their passing game, which will help push the final score OVER the number. Drew Brees is the most fierce competitor in the entire NFL, and he wants to make a statement in Week 1. There's no better way to do that than to knock off the defending Super Bowl champs. Remember, New Orleans won the Super Bowl two years ago and they still have many of the same key cogs back from that team. Their 11-5 campaign last season was considered a "down year", but it was still better than the Packers' 10-6 mark. We believe the Saints have made the better moves this offseason to improve their team, especially with the addition of RB Mark Ingram. Both teams will be better offensively with more playmakers to work with than last season. The game will easily go OVER the total, and the Saints have an excellent chance to cover in a game that should come down to a field goal. Take the Saints and the OVER.

6* Widow Wiseguy MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9.5

Odds makers have missed their mark badly tonight in the Boston vs. Toronto contest. The bats will come out to play as both Tim Wakefield and Brandon Morrow get rocked. Wakefield is 6-6 with a 4.95 ERA this season, while Morrow is 9-10 with a 4.78 ERA in 2011. Both starters have struggled of late as Wakefield is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in his last three starts, while Morrow is 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three outings. Morrow is 1-2 with an 11.14 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in five lifetime starts versus Boston, and the OVER is a perfect 5-0 in those five games. This makes for a 100% never-lost angle in favor of the OVER tonight. Take the OVER 9.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2011 MLB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockies/Diamondbacks OVER 9

This is it folks! This play represents our strongest over/under release for the entire 2011 MLB season. The Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks square off in what will be one of the highest-scoring games of the year Wednesday. Arizona features one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, and these are two of the most potent line-ups in the game. The Rockies are scoring 4.7 runs/game against right-handed starters, and the Diamondbacks are putting up 4.8 runs/game at home. Colorado has scored five or more runs in 10 of their last 14 games overall, while Arizona has scored five or more runs in five of their last six contests. Esmil Rogers is one of the worst starters in the league as he sports a 5.93 ERA and 1.820 WHIP in nine starts and six relief appearances this year. Josh Collmenter is having a decent year at 7-8 with a 3.44 ERA as a starter, but he'll certainly be tested by this hot-hitting Rockies team tonight. The OVER is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 games following a loss. The OVER is 11-3 in Rockies last 14 overall. Take the OVER 9 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Red Sox/Mariners Sunday Afternoon Surefire on OVER 8.5

The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are in line for a slugfest this afternoon. Tim Wakefield and Charlie Furbush are two of the worst starters in the game. Wakefield is 6-4 with a 4.92 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, while Furbush is 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in four starts and 20 relief appearances. Furbush is 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.897 WHIP as a starter in 2011. The OVER is 7-1-1 in Red Sox last 9 vs. American League West. The OVER is 4-0 in Wakefield's last 4 starts as a road favorite. The OVER is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games a home underdog. The OVER is 8-2-1 in Wakefield's last 11 road starts. Take the OVER 8.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockies/Reds OVER 9.5

We'll side with the OVER in this game tonight as the Rockies and Reds put on an offensive display once again. Colorado and Cincinnati combined for 17 runs last night, and we fully expect a similar output with two worse starters on the mound in this one. Esmil Rogers is 5-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.735 WHIP in five starts and six relief appearances for Colorado, while Dontrelle Willis is 0-1 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in five starts for Cincinnati. Both offense are red hot at the plate right now, which will make it even tougher on these two below-average starters. Cincinnati has scored a combined 15 runs (7.5/game) in their last two contests, while Colorado has put up a combined 42 runs (7.0/game) in their last six. The OVER is 3-0-1 in Rogers' last 4 starts as an underdog. The OVER is 6-0 in Reds last 6 games as a home favorite. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the OVER 9.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays/Orioles OVER 9.5

Get ready for a slugfest tonight between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles in AL East play. Toronto starter Brad Mills makes just his second start of the season, while Tommy Hunter comes over from the Rangers via trade to make his season debut. Hunter has faced Toronto before, going 1-1 with an 8.05 ERA in three lifetime starts, allowing 17 earned runs and 7 home runs in 19 innings. The OVER is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER 9.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL Weekend TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER 9.5

*Analysis Coming Soon*

6* Widow Wiseguy 2011 NL Non-Divisional TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Brewers/Diamondbacks OVER 9

*No Analysis Wednesday - On Vacation*

6* Widow Wiseguy 2011 AL Non-Divisional TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rangers/Twins OVER 8

Odds makers have missed their mark Sunday on the total in the Twins/Rangers game. Look for the bats to come out to play in this one as these two hot-hitting lineups put up a plethora of runs. In fact, we anticipate this game will have gone 'over' the number by the end of the fifth inning. Texas has one of the most potent lineups in baseball. The Rangers are scoring 5.4 runs/game against left handed starters this year. While the Twins were off to a slow start at the plate this season, they have gotten hot of late. Minnesota is scoring 4.9 runs/game during a 10-game stretch where they have gone 8-2. Francisco Liriano has been awful at home this year, going 0-3 with a 14.73 ERA and 2.273 WHIP in three home starts in 2011. Liriano is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in four lifetime starts versus Texas. Matt Harrison has pitched above expectations this year for Texas, but he's not as good as his numbers would indicate. Harrison gave up 8 earned runs, 2 home runs and 12 base runners in 5 innings of a 2-14 loss to Minnesota in his only lifetime start against them. The OVER is 4-0 in Rangers last four games overall and the OVER is 4-0 in Twins last four home games. The OVER is 7-0 in Liriano's last 7 home starts overall. The OVER is 7-0 in Liriano's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take this perfect 27-0 angle in favor of the OVER straight to the bank Sunday. Take the OVER 8 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Yankees/Red Sox OVER 8

With the way the Red Sox and Yankees are hitting the ball of late, we have no doubt that both Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia will get rocked enough to push the final combined score of this one 'over' the number. Boston is scoring 5.0 runs/game on the season, including 7.3 runs/game over their last seven contests. The Yankees are putting up 5.1 runs/game this year. Neither starter has fared well against their opponents. Beckett is 13-8 with a 5.20 ERA in 26 lifetime starts versus New York. Sabathia is 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA in 19 lifetime starts versus Boston. Sabathia gave up 6 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last home start against the Red Sox on May 14th. The Yankees are 18-2 OVER (+16.0 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 6-0-2 in Boston's last 8 games overall. The OVER is 6-0-1 in New York's last 7 home games. The OVER is 7-1 in Sabathia's last 8 home starts. Take the OVER 8 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NL Friday Night "Total" BLOWOUT on Brewers/Marlins OVER 7.5

Odds makers have missed their mark badly with this total, and we'll take advantage. Look for the runs to come in bunches tonight in Florida between two potent offenses in the Brewers and Marlins. Looking at head-to-head numbers by tonight's starting pitchers, it's easy to see why we like the 'over' tonight. Randy Wolf is 4-12 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 20 lifetime starts versus Florida, and the OVER is 14-6 in those contests. Ricky Nolasco gave up 8 earned runs and 15 hits his last time out and it doesn't appear that it's going to get any better for him Friday. Nolasco is 1-1 with an 8.66 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four lifetime starts versus Milwaukee, and the OVER is 3-1 in those games. The OVER is 17-5-1 in Nolasco's last 23 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Florida. The OVER is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 during game 1 of a series and the OVER is 5-0-1 in Marlins last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the OVER 7.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2011 National League TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Marlins/Diamondbacks OVER 9

This total has been set way too low tonight, and we'll take advantage. Arizona is home to one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. That's a big reason why the Diamondbacks are hitting .271 and scoring 5.5 runs/game at home this year. Look for Arizona to put up a big number on Marlins starter Javier Vasquez in this one. Vasquez is 3-4 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in 10 starts and one relief appearance this season. Daniel Hudson has been decent for Arizona, but he's no Ace. Hudson is 6-5 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in 11 starts this year. The OVER is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Vasquez's last six starts overall. The OVER is 19-6-1 in Marlins last 26 during game 3 of a series. Take the OVER 9 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2011 American League TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rangers/Rays OVER 8.5

Odds makers have missed their mark badly tonight. Both Derek Holland and Wade Davis are in line to get rocked Monday. Neither starter has fared well against their respective opponents. Holland is 2-1 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in three career starts versus Tampa Bay, while Davis is 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.281 WHIP in two career starts versus Texas. Holland has allowed 91 base runners in 59 2/3 innings over 10 starts this season for a huge 1.525 WHIP. Davis has yielded 90 base runners in 63 innings over 10 starts for a 1.429 WHIP. The OVER is 6-1 in Rangers last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is 9-3-1 in Rays last 13 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take the OVER 8.5 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Thunder/Mavs OVER 198.5

This total has been set too low tonight and we'll take full advantage. Oklahoma City is going to be playing desperate basketball, meaning they are going to play at an up-tempo pace. Dallas is also going to be playing at a frantic pace knowing they have a chance to close out the series tonight. Look for both teams to get up and down in what will be the highest-scoring game of this series, and will see well over 200 combined points. The Thunder are 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 14-5 OVER (+8.5 Units) versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game this season. The OVER is 6-0 in Thunder last 6 games following a ATS loss. The OVER is 34-16 in Thunder last 50 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 12-2 in Mavericks last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The OVER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Dallas, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series overall. Take the OVER 198.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Mavs/Thunder OVER 193.5

When looking at the three games between these teams this season, along with Game 1's thus far in the playoffs, we have decided to side with the OVER as our strongest total in the Western Conference playoffs Tuesday. All three meetings between the Mavs and Thunder this season saw 194 or more combined points and an average of 201.3 points/game. OKC went OVER in Game 1 against Denver with 210 combined points and OVER in Game 1 against Memphis with 215 combined points. The OVER is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in Dallas and 4-0 in the last four meetings there. Both of these teams have a plethora of weapons offensively, but neither is considered a lock-down defensive team. OKC is scoring 104.6 points/game and giving up 100.7 points/game, while Dallas is putting up 99.9 points/game and allowing 95.2 points/game. We believe odds makers have really missed their mark here for Game 1. Take the OVER 193.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL East TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9

Look for the bats to come out to play tonight in Toronto as both John Lackey and Jesse Litsch get lit up. Lackey is 2-4 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.745 WHIP this season, while Litsch is 3-2 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.374 WHIP this year. Lackey is 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA in 15 lifetime starts versus Toronto, while Litsch is 4-3 with a 4.11 ERA in eight lifetime starts versus Boston. The Blue Jays are 11-2 OVER (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 3 or less batters per start over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 10-3 in Lackey's last 13 starts with 5 days of rest. The OVER is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts versus Toronto, and the OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Toronto. Take the OVER 9 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 181

With the Boston Celtics ailing, they are going to really have to rely on defense to try and tie this series at 2-2. Rajon Rondo can't even use his left hand, which will make the Celtics a much less dangerous team offensively. This is going to be an ugly, grind it out type of game that sees less than 180 combined points. It will play out similar to Game 3, where we saw 178 combined points in a 97-81 Boston victory. Over the last 5 seasons, the UNDER is 108-58 (65.1%) in the 4th game of a playoff series. The UNDER is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between the Heat and Celtics in Boston. The Celtics are 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 181 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Mavs/Lakers TNT Wednesday Night "BAILOUT" on OVER 186.5

The odds makers have dropped this total a full two points from what it was set at in Game 1. These are two of the better offensive teams in the league this season and we feel there is a lot of value with the 'over' tonight in Game 2. Dallas is 27-18 OVER (+7.2 Units) in road games this season. The Mavs are 26-10 OVER (+15.0 Units) in the second round of the playoffs since 1996. Dallas is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) after a win by 6 points or less this season. The Lakers are scoring 103.0 points/game while allowing 94.8 points/game at home this year for an average combined score of 197.8. Dallas is scoring 98.5 points/game and allowing 96.4 points/game on the road for an average score of 194.9. As you can see, there is clearly some value here with this 'over'. Dallas and Los Angeles have combined to score 187 or more points in seven straight meetings, making for a perfect 7-0 OVER angle pertaining to tonight's total set. Take the OVER 186.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Wednesday Night "Total" BLOWOUT on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 189

We'll side with the UNDER in Game 5 tonight between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies. Look for the Spurs to clamp down defensively after letting the Grizzlies go off in Game 4. Their defensive intensity will be much greater with their backs against the wall down 3-1, and it should lead to a low-scoring affair. The Spurs and Grizzlies have combined to average 187 points/game in this series through four games. That gives us some value on the 'under' tonight, and as a series goes on it becomes more tough for the offenses of both teams to get going. The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Spurs last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games. Memphis is 58-28 UNDER (+27.2 Units) after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games since 1996. The Spurs are 92-62 UNDER (+23.8 Units) in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days since 1996. Take the UNDER 189 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Thunder/Nuggets TNT Monday Night "BAILOUT" on UNDER 205.5

After a shootout in Game 1 which saw 210 combined points, the Thunder and Nuggets have settled down in Games 2 and 3. OKC won 106-89 in Game 2 for 195 combined points, and won again 97-94 in Game 3 for a 191-point output. These teams have already met five times in the month of April, with combined scores of 195 or less points in four of them. Familiarity breeds defensive battles because it's simply harder for the offenses to get going when their opposition knows that they like to do. The UNDER is 18-7-2 in Nuggets last 27 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Denver is 21-5 UNDER (+15.5 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. The Nuggets are 30-16 UNDER (+12.4 Units) when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. Denver is 27-13 UNDER (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Take the UNDER 205.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Saturday Play of the Night on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 191.5

We'll side with the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies. In this pivitol game, defense will reign supreme. These teams combined for 180 points in Game 2 and you can expect a similar output tonight in Game 3. Memphis is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. The Grizzlies are 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Spurs last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 games as a favorite. Take the UNDER 191.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Sunday "Total" BLOWOUT on Grizzlies/Spurs U 195

*Analysis Coming Soon*

6* Widow Wiseguy NL Total of the Month on Brewers/Pirates OVER 8

This total has been set way too low today in the Brewers/Pirates NL Central contest. The Pirates' left-hander Paul Maholm is 3-6 with a 4.53 ERA in 17 starts versus Milwaukee. The Brewers counter with Randy Wolf (0-2, 7.20), who tries to avoid matching a career high with his third straight loss to open a season. The left-hander has allowed six in runs in each of his first two starts. Wolf was 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA in three starts versus Pittsburgh last season. Take the OVER 8 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy AL Saturday Night "Total" BLOWOUT on Blue Jays/Angels OVER 9

This game is poised to go well OVER the number tonight in Los Angeles. Brett Cecil and Matt Palmer, especially, are two starters in the bottom half of the league at their positions. I would not be surprised one bit to see either team score 9 runs on their own, especially Toronto. The Jays are scoring 5.4 runs/game this season with a .273 average and 10 home runs already. The Angels are scoring 4.3 runs/game with a .291 average and 11 bombs. The Over is 7-0-1 in Cecils last 8 starts on grass. The Over is 5-1-3 in Cecils last 9 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Over is 5-0-1 in Angels last 6 games following a loss. The Over is 6-1 in Palmers last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Take the OVER 9 runs here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on 76ers/Bulls O 191

When looking at recent meetings between the Bulls and 76ers, it's easy to see why we are on the OVER tonight. The OVER is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in this series, and 11 of those 13 meetings saw 195 or more combined points. These teams combined to score 204 and 197 points in their two meetings this season, respectively. The OVER is 6-1 in Philly's last 7 games overall with combined scores of 198 or more six times, while the OVER is 5-0 in Chicago's last 5 games with combined scores of 195 or more four times. As you can see, there is a ton of value with this 'over' tonight and we'll take full advantage. Take the OVER 191 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

This total has been jacked up tonight due to the most recent meeting between the Spurs and Heat. Miami didn't even show up for that game, and allowed San Antonio to do whatever they wanted in a 125-95 victory for the Spurs on March 4th. They will certainly show up tonight, especially defensively where they will buckle down as they look to get revenge on the Spurs. Because of their 220-point output in their last meeting, we find the odds makers have inflated this total tonight which provides us with some nice value. In fact, that was by far the highest-scoring game in this series in quite some time. The UNDER is 18-3 in the last 21 meetings in this series, including 12-1 in the last 13 meetings in Miami. A closer look really shows you how much value there is on this 'under' tonight. 26 of the last 27 meetings have seen 195 or less combined points, which makes for a 26-1 (96%) UNDER angle given the total set tonight. Take the UNDER 199 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Lakers/Thunder NBA on ABC Sunday Surefire on UNDER 200.5

When looking at recent meetings between the Lakers and Thunder, it's easy to see that there is some nice value with this UNDER Sunday. Oklahoma City and Los Angeles have combined to score 199 or less points in eight straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 8-0 angle in favor of the UNDER pertaining to the total set listed today. Enough said. Take the UNDER 200.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on T'Wolves/Bucks UNDER 193

This 'under' is showing excellent value tonight. The UNDER is 9-2 in Minnesota's last 11 games, while the UNDER is 7-1-1 in Milwaukee's last 9 games. This is a very high total for a Bucks home game, especially considering they have combined with their opponents to score 185 or less in seven of their last nine contests. Minnesota has combined their their opponents to score 194 or less in three straight games as well. The UNDER is 8-0 in Timberwolves last 8 games following a S.U. loss, while the UNDER is 8-0 in Bucks last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. This makes for a combined 16-0 angle in favor of the UNDER tonight. Plus, these teams combined for 181 points in their first meeting this season in which Minnesota won 96-85 at home. Take the UNDER 193 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2011 NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -10.5/OVER 198

Plays on home favorites (MIAMI) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 55-21 (72.4%) ATS since 1996. Miami is playing great basketball right now. The Heat are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Indiana has won four straight, but three of those games came against the likes or the Raptors, Cavs and Nets who are three of the worst teams in the league. The Pacers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (INDIANA) - an good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 45-16 (73.8%) OVER since 1996. Both teams are hitting on all cylinders offensively right now. Indiana has scored 100 or more points in four straight games while averaging 106.5 points/game, and Miami is averaging 107.0 points/game over their last five contests. The OVER is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 road games. The OVER is 10-4 in Heat last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take Miami and the OVER as our 2011 NBA Parlay of the Year Tuesday.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2011 NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 207

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 42-13 (76.4%) OVER since 1996. Also, plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (UTAH) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, vs. division opponents are 44-16 (73.3%) OVER through the last 5 seasons. Deron Williams has been out for the Jazz since January 26th and as a result they have been playing in much lower-scoring games of late. Williams is expected to return tonight against the Nuggets as he is listed as probable, and as a result we expect Utah's offense to get back on track. Denver is scoring 110.7 points/game at home this season and are combining with their opponents to average 112.7 points/game at home. Taking a look at recent meetings in his series, we find great value in the OVER. The OVER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings with combined scores of 208 or more points in eight of the nine meetings. That's an 89% OVER Angle pertaining to the total set listed tonight. The OVER is 38-12-2 in Jazz last 52 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, 7-1 in Jazz last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 42-20-1 in Jazz last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The OVER is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games overall and 8-1 in Nuggets last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Denver. Take the OVER 207 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Heat/Knicks TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 212

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are 33-8 (80.5%) UNDER during the last 5 seasons. We look for a defensive battle tonight in New York. Considering Miami only allows 93.9 points/game, it's easy to see why we're siding with the UNDER here. Plus, the last 5 meetings in this series have all seen combined scores of 209 or less points. Also, the UNDER is 8-1-1 in Knicks last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER 212 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Jazz/Celtics OVER 194

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BOSTON) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 175 points or less are 84-37 (69.4%) OVER since 1996. After playing a low-scoring affair against a terrible Detroit Pistons team last time out, the Boston Celtics will take part in a shootout against the Utah Jazz Friday. The OVER is 7-1 in Utah's last 8 games overall where Utah and their opponents have combined to score 198 or more points in all eight games. Utah is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Jazz are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite this season. The Celtics are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite this season. The OVER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in this series, including 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Boston. Take the OVER 194 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy ESPN Friday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Suns/Blazers OVER 195.5

The OVER in the Blazers/Suns game tonight is showing excellent value. Rarely will you find a Phoenix home game with a total set of less than 200 points. In fact, there has not been one Phoenix home game that has been set at less than 200 points this season, and only one Suns game all year was set at less than 200. That came at Charlotte on 11/20 where 228 combined points were scored despite a total of just 198.5. Odds makers are making a huge mistake tonight by setting this total so low. The Suns are scoring 106.0 points/game this season and allowing a league-worst 108.9 points/game. Given those averages, you can see why we're on the OVER tonight. The OVER is 9-2 in Suns last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 10-4 in Suns last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Phoenix is 15-7 to the OVER in their last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 7-3 in Trail Blazers last 10 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Phoenix is 21-9 OVER (+11.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix and their opponents are combining to score 214.9 points/game this season, therefore we are essentially getting nearly 20 points of value tonight. Take the OVER 195.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Illinois/Baylor OVER 62.5

This game will likely have gone OVER the total by the end of the 3rd quarter. This is a showdown between two high-powered offenses and two teams that play little defense. Baylor is scoring 32.6 points/game behind 478 total yards/game this season, while Illinois is putting up 32.1 points/game thanks to a rushing offense that generates 242 yards/game on the ground. Baylor will be able to move the ball at will thanks to a balnced offense that produces 200 rushing yards/game and 278 passing yards/game. Baylor will give up a ton of points and yardage. The Bears allow 29.8 points/game, 160 rushing yards/game and 267 passing yards/game. The Bears are yielding 34.2 points/game and 507 total yards/game on the road this year. The OVER is 5-1 in Illinois' last 6 games while the OVER is 7-1 in Baylor's last 8 games. Both teams should have no problem scoring 30-plus tonight. The OVER is 7-0 in Fighting Illini last 7 games following a S.U. loss and the OVER is 14-2 in Fighting Illini last 16 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Take the OVER 62.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Vikings/Eagles NFL Tuesday "Total" BLOWOUT on OVER 41.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are fully capable of scoring 43 points on their own Sunday night. The Vikings gave up 40 points in a 40-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in their last game, and the Eagles put up 38 points in a 38-31 victory over the New York Giants last time out. Scoring points has not been a problem for Philly. The Eagles are scoring 29.3 points/game this year and have put up at least 26 points in 7 straight games. Their defense is obviously a big weakness for this team and one that might prevent them from getting to the Super Bowl. Philly has allowed 24 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games overall. The Eagles are 21-10 OVER (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after the first month of the season this season. Minnesota is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Take the OVER 41.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Saints/Falcons OVER 48.5

This game will have gone OVER the number by the end of the 3rd quarter. These are two great offenses, and playing in a dome tonight with perfect conditions will pave the way to a shootout. Atlanta is scoring 28.2 points/game at home while New Orleans is putting up 28.3 points/game on the road. These teams will be meeting up for a second time this season, as Atlanta won the first meeting in New Orleans 27-24. That shootout should come as no surprise considering these teams have combined to score 49 or more points in 5 straight meetings and the OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. As the season has gone on, both offenses have gotten a lot stronger. We honesly cannot believe how badly odds makers have missed their mark with this total. New Orleans has scored 24 or more points in 7 straight games and 30 or more in 6 of their last 7, while Atlanta has scored 26 or more points in 7 of their last 8. Atlanta is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season. New Orleans is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 48.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Cowboys/Cardinals NFL Saturday "Total" BLOWOUT on OVER 45

*Analysis Coming Soon*

6* Widow Wiseguy Suns/Mavs ESPN Friday Night "BAILOUT" on OVER 210.5

Phoenix is the worst defensive team in the league this season, and this is a reasonably low total for a Suns game tonight. Phoenix is scoring 109.0 points/game while allowing 110.0 points/game for an averaged combined score of 219.0 points/game. Dallas has had no problem scoring on the Suns over the last few years, which should come as no surprise. The Mavs have scored 100 or more points in 8 straight meetings with Phoenix, while the Suns have scored 101 or more in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. There have been some bad defensive teams in Phoenix history, but this year's version has to be the worst. The OVER is 6-0 in Mavs last 6 games overall, and Dallas has scored 100 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Dallas is hitting on all cylinders offensively right now and that's another big reason why the OVER should be money in the bank tonight. The OVER is 11-1 in Suns last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the OVER 210.5 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Warriors OVER 204

This is a very low total for a Warriors home game, and the clear value tonight is with the OVER as the Miami Heat come to town. The Warriors are scoring 105.4 points/game and allowing 106.6 points/game at home this year for an average combined score of 212 points. The OVER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings and the OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Golden State. Take the OVER 204 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy Texans/Eagles Thursday PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Eagles -8/OVER 51.5

First and foremost, we expect the Eagles to score at will tonight. Philly is scoring 28.2 points/game this season and 34.5 points/game in their last four with Michael Vick as a starter, while the Texans have allowed 29 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games overall. The only game they allowed less came this past Sunday when they faced a Tennessee Titans team that was down to their third-string quarterback in Rusty Smith. The Texans will be faced with a whole new animal in Michael Vick tonight, and 3 days to prepare for Vick in the Eagles simply isn't enough. We fully expect Philly to put up 35-plus tonight. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

Obviously with the Eagles scoring 35 or more, this game is likely to go OVER the number. Houston will score enough points for us to get the over, likley between 20 and 23 points as the Eagles allow 23.4 points/game overall and 20.4 points/game at home. These are two great offensive teams with the Eagles putting up 399 total yards/game and the Texans 368 total yards/game. But obviously the difference lies in the defense, where the Texans yield 408 total yards/game on the road including 306 passing yards/game away from home. Philly gives up 286 total yards/game at home. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Texans last 6 road games, while the OVER is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games overall. Take the Eagles and the OVER as our Thursday PARLAY OF THE YEAR tonight.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green/Toledo OVER 54

We'll side with the OVER tonight in the MAC showdown between Bowling Green and Toledo. Last season, these teams combined to score 62 points in a 38-24 Bowling Green victory. We see another shootout in the making tonight between two teams that do not play much defense. That's especially the case for Bowling Green. The Falcons allow 36.5 points/game and 442 total yards/game on the road this season. Those numbers are slightly up from the 32.9 points/game and 420 yards/game they allow overall. Toledo yields 29.2 points/game and 379 total yards/game, so they haven't been a whole lot better on this side of the ball. The Rockets gave up 65 points to Northern Illinois last time out. Toledo can put up points in bunches though, scoring 30 or more points in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8 overall. They are primed to put up their biggest point total of the season against this putrid BGSU defense. Bowling Green is passing for 250 yards/game on the road this season, and should be able to move the ball at will against a Rockets defense that is allowing 63% completions and 233 passing yards/game. Toledo is 27-10 OVER (+16.0 Units) in home games since 1992 & 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while the OVER is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER 54 points here.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Steelers -4.5/OVER 41

The Cincinnati Bengals have had every chance to turn around their season in recent weeks, but they haven't capitalized. The Bengals are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, losing to 4 teams that the Steelers have beaten this season in the Dolphins, Falcons, Bucs and Browns. Pittsburgh is coming off a loss so they'll be hungry, plus they are playing with double revenge after losing both meetings with the Bengals last year. But this isn't the same Cincinnati team from last year, and this is a better Steelers team this year. The road team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons. The reason we also like the OVER in this game is because we believe that Pittsburgh is going to put up a big number on this soft Bengals defense. Cincinnati is allowing 23.3 points/game this season and 342 total yards/game. The Bengals have given up at least 22 points in 4 straight games. Pittsburgh will put up 28-plus tonight while the Bengals, with an improved passing game, will score enough to help us get the OVER. The OVER is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the Steelers and the OVER 41 points here.