Sports Picks & Predictions

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians +104

The Key: The Cleveland Indians will be out for revenge on the Minnesota Twins after losing the first 2 games of this series by a single run each.  I look for them to avoid the sweep tonight.  Josh Tomlin has been brilliant in 2 starts this season, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.771 WHIP.  Tomlin has owned the Twins of late too, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in his last 2 starts against them while allowing only 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 13 innings.  Tomlin is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  Tomlin is 10-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  The Indians are 9-2 in their last 11 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  The Indians are 10-1 in Tomlin's last 11 starts.  Take Cleveland.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on St. Louis Cardinals -128

The Key: After blowing a big early lead to lose 7-12 to the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series yesterday, I fully expect the Cardinals to get revenge in Game 2 tonight.  They clearly have the edge on the mound behind Carlos Martinez, who is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 starts this year.  Martinez is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Arizona as well, both of which resulted in St. Louis wins.  Shelby Miller has been off his game to say the least, going 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in 4 starts this year.  He hasn't even made it out of the 2nd inning in any of his last two starts.  St. Louis is 36-16 in the last 52 meetings, including 12-2 in all meetings over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals are 25-7 in Martinez's last 32 starts.  The Diamondbacks are 26-59 in their last 85 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take St. Louis.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Detroit Tigers -135

The Key: The Detroit Tigers have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 games overall.  It's safe to say they will be hungry to get back in the win column when they host the Oakland A's for Game 1 of this series Monday.  I like their chances of getting a victory to end this skid with their best starter on the mound in Jordan Zimmerman.  The right-hander hasn't allowed a single earned run in three starts this year.  Zimmerman is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.086 WHIP while pitching 19 1/3 shutout innings.  The Tigers opened as -150-plus favorites and are now down to -135, but Zimmerman is 48-12 (+25.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in his career.  The A's are 2-9 in Kendall Graveman's last 11 starts.  Take Detroit.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on St. Louis Cardinals -132

The Key: The St. Louis Cardinals should take care of the San Diego Padres with relative ease today.  Mike Leake is 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts versus San Diego.  He'll be opposed by Colin Rea, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in one lifetime start vs. St. Louis.  Rea is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in 3 starts this season as well.  St. Louis is 93-43 (+31.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 10-27 in their last 37 during game 3 of a series.  Take St. Louis.

6* Mariners/Angels AL West *BAILOUT* on Seattle +114

The Key:  Getting ace Felix Hernandez and the Mariners at nearly even money tonight is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.  The Mariners come in playing very well having won 6 of their last 8 games overall.  Now they have a chance to get above .500 for the first time this season, and Hernandez will make it happen.  He's 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA in 3 starts this season, allowing only 2 earned runs in 18 innings.  Hernandez sports a 3.30 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 46 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  The Mariners are 20-8 in Hernandez's last 28 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Seattle is 7-2 in its last 9 road games.  The Mariners are 9-3 in Hernandez's last 12 starts vs. Angels.  Take Seattle.

6* Mariners/Angels AL West *BAILOUT* on Seattle -110

The Key: Getting ace Felix Hernandez and the Mariners at nearly even money tonight is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.  The Mariners come in playing very well having won 5 of their last 7 games overall.  Now they have a chance to get to .500 for the first time this season, and Hernandez will make it happen.  He's 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA in 3 starts this season, allowing only 2 earned runs in 18 innings.  Hernandez sports a 3.30 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 46 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  He's up against the lightly-used Nick Tropeano, who has yet to proven himself in the big leagues.  The Angels are 24-44 (-17.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.  The Mariners are 20-8 in Hernandez's last 28 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mariners are 9-3 in Hernandez's last 12 starts vs. Angels.  Take Seattle.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -103

The Key: We're getting a solid price on the Toronto Blue Jays today at nearly even money with the underrated Marco Estrada on the mound.  Estrada was tremendous all season last year, and he's 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 2 starts to start 2016.  Estrada is 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore as well.  Chris Tillman continues to get blown up after a disastrous 2015.  He is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA through 3 starts in 2016.  But the real ugliness comes when he faces the Blue Jays.  Tillman is 4-10 with a 5.48 ERA in 20 lifetime starts vs. Toronto.  In 6 starts against Toronto last season, Tillman went 0-4 with a huge 11.72 ERA.  He served up 10 homers and 40 hits in 25 1/3 innings while walking 11 and striking out only 15.  Take Toronto.

6* Rays/Red Sox AL East *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +100

The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays should not be underdogs to the Boston Red Sox given the advantage they have on the mound today.  Archer is coming off a season in which he posted a 3.23 ERA and 1.137 WHIP with 252 strikeouts in 212 innings.  He is an elite starter.  Rick Porcello is one of the most overpaid starters in the majors.  After going 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA in 31 starts in his first season in Boston last year, he has posted a 5.11 ERA through two starts in 2016.  Archer is 9-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.  Boston is 1-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line after getting shut out over the last 2 seasons.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* DBacks/Giants National League *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -121

The Key: After losing 2 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall, the San Francisco Giants will be hungry for a win today to get back on track.  I look for them to get it behind Matt Cain and company.  Cain is 14-7 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 34 lifetime starts versus Arizona.  Robbie Ray is off to a shaky start to his big league career at 6-16 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.429 WHIP over 31 starts and three relief appearances.  Ray is 4-13 (-9.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Take San Francisco.

6* National League *TOTAL* Annihilator on Mets/Phillies UNDER 7

The Key: I expect a pitcher's duel tonight between two of the worst offensive teams in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.  The Phillies are hitting .207 and scoring 2.6 runs per game this season, while the Mets are hitting .220 and scoring 3.4 runs per game.  Noah Syndergaard has been dominant, going 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 2 starts.  Jerad Eickhoff has been a pleasant surprise, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two starts.  Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Philadelphia, while Eickhoff is 1-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. New York.  Take the UNDER.

6* Giants/Dodgers NL West *BAILOUT* on San Francisco +100

The Key: Johnny Cueto is certainly enjoying his new home in San Francisco.  The right-hander is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 2 starts this year.  Cueto has posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts versus Los Angeles.  His opponent in Scott Kazmir is 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA in 3 lifetime starts vs San Francisco.  Kazmir is 0-6 (-7.7 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 2 seasons.  Take San Francisco.

7* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -116

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have obviously been a great team to fade up to this point as they are 0-9 on the season.  I don't expect them to be getting their first win of the year today, either.  That's because they are up against the Los Angeles Angels and ace Garrett Richards.  The Angels come in having won four straight, and Richards wants to keep it rolling.  I like his chances considering what he's done against the Twins in the past.  Richards is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Minnesota.  Tom Milone sports a 4.55 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 11 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  The Angels are 13-3 in their last 16 meetings with the Twins, including 7-1 in their last 8 meetings in Minnesota.  The Angels are 11-1 in Richards' last 12 Friday starts as well.  Take Los Angeles.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas Rangers -125

The Key: I like the value we are getting with the Rangers as small home favorites over the Orioles today, especially with ace Cole Hamels on the mound.  The Orioles are way overvalued right now due to their 7-1 start.  But they just suffered their first loss of the season yesterday, an I look for them to have a hangover today.  Hamels is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts this season for Texas to pick up right where he left off last year for the Rangers.  Hamels has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in his last 2 starts against Baltimore as well.  Baltimore is 4-16 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take Texas.

6* American League *TOTAL* Annihilator on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Key: Any time you get the opportunity to bet the OVER in a Blue Jays game with a total set of 8 runs or less, you should take advantage.  That's precisely what we'll do here Wednesday in what should be a high-scoring affair between the Yankees and Jays in Toronto.  Michael Pineda gave up 3 home runs in his last start against Toronto.  J.A. Happ is 3-2 with a 5.02 ERA in 9 lifetime starts vs. New York.  Take the OVER.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Key: Any time you can get a Blue Jays total at 8 or lower, it's time to look for the OVER.  That's the case today as they host the Yankees.  The Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 overall.  The Over is 7-2-3 in Blue Jays last 12 home games.  Take the OVER.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-109)

The Key: The Washington Nationals send ace Max Scherzer to the mound tonight to dispose of the lowly Atlanta Braves.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the Braves are 0-5 this season while losing four games by 2 runs or more.  They were just outscored 31-13 by the Cardinals in their last series.   Scherzer was dominant in his opening day start, giving up 2 runs and 5 base runners in 7 innings against the Braves.  He has now given up 4 earned runs over 21 innings in his last 3 starts against Atlanta.  Bud Norris is 2-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Washington.  Atlanta is 11-38 as a dog of +150 or more over the last 2 years, losing by 2.6 runs per game.  The Braves are 11-41 in their last 52 road games.  Take Washington on the Run Line.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels -105

The Key: At 1-4 on the season and off two straight losses to the Rangers, the Angels are hungry for a win here Sunday at home to get back on track.  I'll back Jered Weaver over Martin Perez all day.  Weaver has gone 15-8 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 37 lifetime starts vs. Texas.  Perez went 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 starts last season for Texas.  Weaver is 25-7 (+17.4 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 in his career.  Weaver is 40-11 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents in his career.  Take Los Angeles.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Arizona Diamondbacks -109

The Key: Because Zach Greinke got blown up in his Opening Day start, we are getting him at an excellent value here Saturday as a small home favorite over the Chicago Cubs.  Greinke had the flu and pitched through it, but now he's fully recovered and ready to redeem himself.  He'll be up against the Cubs No. 5 starter in Kyle Hendricks.  So we have a No. 1 against a No. 5 and the No. 1 is at home.  This is about as easy as it gets.  Greinkey is 91-35 (+39.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher in his career.  Take Arizona.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels -125

The Key: Matt Shoemaker is one of the more underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 23-14 with a 3.68 ERA in 53 big league appearances over the span of the last 3 years.  But what really stands out in this game is how Shoemaker has dominated the Rangers.  The right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. Texas.  That domination continues tonight.  Texas is 10-26 in its last 36 meetings with the Angels.  Take Los Angeles.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on New York Yankees -104

The Key: We're getting the New York Yankees at basically even money against the Houston Astros today.  This team comes in with a lot of confidence after exploding for 16 runs against the Astros yesterday.  Now I look for them to tee off against Mike Fiers today.  I also like Nathan Eovaldi quite a bit, especially when you consider what he has done against the Astros in the past.  Eovaldi is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Houston, and his teams are 3-0 in those games.  He allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 innings in two starts against the Astros in 2015.  The Astros are 21-44 in their last 65 road games. Take New York.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on New York Yankees -119

The Key: The Yankees fell 5-3 in their opener against the Astros yesterday.  Now I expect them to get their first win of the year behind Michael Pineda, who went 12-10 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 27 starts last season.  Collin McHugh was vulnerable on the road, posting a 4.09 ERA in 18 starts away from home last season.  McHugh went 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA in spring training.  The Yankees are 37-16 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Astros are 21-43 in their last 64 road games.  Take New York.

6* MLB Total *Annihilator* on Mets/Royals OVER 8

The Key: The wind in Kansas City today is going to be very favorable for a high-scoring game.  In fact, it is expected to be blowing a whopping 25 miles per hour out to left field.  Look for plenty of offensive fireworks as normal fly balls hit to left will go for homers.  The Mets are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 road games revenging a one run loss vs. opponent.  Take the OVER.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay Rays -109

The Key: After losing on Opening Day to the Blue Jays, I look for the Rays to get in the win column today and exact some revenge.  Yesterday's starting pitching matchup was a lot more evenly matched than this one.  I'll gladly back Drew Smyly over R.A. Dickey.  Smyly went 5-2 with a 3.11 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings for the Rays last year.  I'll be anxious to see what he can do over a full season because this guy is so good when healthy.  Smyly is 24-15 with a 3.24 ERA over his 4-year big league career and is primed for a breakout.  Dickey hasn't been great in Toronto with a 4.21 ERA, 3.71 ERA and 3.91 ERA in his last three seasons there, respectively.  Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Toronto, giving up just 2 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Blue Jays/Rays AL East *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay -113

The Key: We are getting the Rays at a nice price at home on opening day.  I'll back Chris Archer at this price every time as he's one of the very best starters in baseball, but he doesn't get the kind of respect other aces around the league get.  Archer is 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. Toronto, while his counterpart Marcus Stroman is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay.  Archer finished 5th in the AL Cy Young balloting last year and went 12-13 with a 3.23 ERA in 34 starts.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Royals/Mets Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +129

The Key: The Kansas City Royals have all the momentum now after erasing a 2-3 deficit in the 8th inning to win 5-3 in Game 4.  The Mets just took a sucker punch and won't be able to recover from it in time for Game 5 as they were on the verge of squaring the series 2-2.  The Royals are hungry to clinch the World Series now after losing it to the Giants in Game 7 last year.  They don't want this series to go back to KC.  Edinson Volquez lost his father on the same day he pitched Game 1, and he's going to be dedicating tonight's performance to his father.  The Royals players can't help but rally around him, and this just has the feeling that the Royals won't be denied tonight.  Volquez has pitched well in the postseason and is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts against New York.  The Royals are 27-9 in their last 36 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Royals are 6-0 in Volquez's last 6 interleague starts.  Take Kansas City.

6* Royals/Mets Game 3 *CA$H COW* on New York -142

The Key: It's now or never for the New York Mets.  Down 0-2 in this series, Game 3 is a must-win, and I look for them to get the job done behind the massive advantage they have on the mound.  Noah Syndergaard is 8-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in 13 home starts this year.  He has pitched well in the postseason, too, going 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last three starts.  Yordano Ventura sports a 4.36 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 15 road starts this year, and a 4.02 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in three postseason starts.  The Royals are 0-5 in Venturas last 5 interleague starts.  The Mets are 8-2 in Syndergaard's last 10 home starts.  The Mets are 17-1 (+15.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season.  Take New York.

6* Mets/Royals Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +112

The Key: The Royals have all of the momentum now after coming from behind in the 9th inning to force extra innings, where they would eventually win in the 14th with a sacrifice fly from Eric Hosmer.  I like Johnny Cueto at home as he's 7-4 with a 3.08 ERA at home this season.  Cueto has also had plenty of success against the Mets in recent years from his time with the Reds in the National League.  He is 3-2 with a 2.05 ERA in his last seven starts against New York, allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of those seven starts.  Cueto is 21-6 (+13.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Take Kansas City.

6* Mets/Royals Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +100

The Key: Kansas City will take Game 1 of this series behind a strong start from Edinson Volquez.  He is 9-4 with a 3.28 ERA in 17 home starts this season, and 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts against the Mets.  He'll be opposed by Matt Harvey, who has been vulnerable on the road.  Harvey is 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA in 12 road starts this year.  The Royals are 56-31 at home this season, while the Mets are just 45-41 on the road.  Volquez is 9-0 against the money line at home this season with a price range of -100 to -150.  Take Kansas City.

6* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -128

The Key: David Price will pick up his first postseason win today.  He should have had a win in Game 2, but his defense let him down in the 7th inning after he had pitched six shutout innings in Kansas City.  This guy is still one of the best in the business, and he's been special on the road this year at 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 17 starts.  Price is 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against the Royals.  Yordano Ventura is 13-9 with a 4.25 ERA this year, and 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA in three postseason starts.  I love the way the Blue Jays have responded in these elimination games this postseason, going 4-0 with all four victories coming by at least 3 runs apiece.  They'll live to fight another day after a Game 6 victory.  Take Toronto.

7* Mets/Cubs Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -115

The Key: The Cubs know that if they can just get through this game, they'll have a fighting chance because they'll have Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta for the next two games.  They aren't going to lay down for the Mets in this one.  Jason Hammel has been an effective starter all season at 10-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 32 starts.  He also shut down the Mets in his only start against them, giving up just one earned run in 8 innings back in May at home.  Steven Matz gave up 3 runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings against the Dodgers last series.  The Cubs can get to him and will tonight.  The Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight home meetings with the Mets.  If a couple bounces go their way last night, they would have won that game, too.  Take Chicago.

7* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Blue Jays -144

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays put up 11 runs on the Royals yesterday to get back into this series.  I look for those hot bats to continue tonight against Chris Young and the Royals in Game 4.  Young is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against Toronto.  R.A. Dickey has been dominant at home this season, especially of late, going 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA in his last eight home starts.  Dickey is also 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last four starts against the Royals.  His knuckleball has gotten better here down the stretch and will fool these Kansas City hitters after facing flame-thrower Marcus Stroman last night.  The Blue Jays are 12-3 in Dickey's last 15 starts overall and 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. Take Toronto.

6* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -160

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays trailed 2-0 to the Texas Rangers in the ALDS and managed to win three straight elimination games to win the series.  This team is clearly a resilient bunch, and I expect them to show that resiliency again as they trail 2-0 to the Royals after losing the first two games in Kansas City.  Now they get back home where they will be a lot more comfortable.  It also helps that they have Marcus Stroman on the mound, who has gone 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 6 starts this year.  Stroman held the Royals to one run in 6 innings in his only lifetime start against them last year.  Kansas City goes with Johnny Cueto, who is 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA since joining the Royals.  The Royals are 1-6 in Cueto's last 7 road starts, while the Blue Jays are 6-1 in Stroman's last 7 starts overall.  Take Toronto.

6* Cubs/Mets NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago -159

The Key: Backing Jake Arrieta is never a bad idea.  All he's done is post a 0.83 ERA in his last 15 starts overall while also going 12-0 with a 1.18 ERA in his last 16 road starts.  Not to mention Arrieta has owned the Mets, going 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in his last four starts against them.  The Cubs are 14-0 this season when Arrieta is a road favorite of -110 or more.  They haven't lost and aren't about to start losing in this huge Game 2 Sunday night.  Take Chicago.

6* Cubs/Mets NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago +110
The Key: The Chicago Cubs have the clear advantage on the mound in this one in my opinion.  Jon Lester has only gotten stronger as the season has gone on.  He has given up 3 or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts and sports a 2.42 ERA and 0.627 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Lester has been at his best on the road with a 2.99 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Matt Harvey was shaky in his first postseason start against the Dodgers, giving up 3 runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings and was fortunate to get a ton of run support.  That's not going to happen today.  Lester is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 3 lifetime start against New York, and his teams are 3-0 having never lost.  The Cubs are 7-0 in seven meetings with the Mets this season.  Take Chicago.

6* Blue Jays/Royals ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -114

The Key: Marco Estrada is going under the radar despite having a great season with the Blue Jays.  He's 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 29 starts this year.  He has gotten even better down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 2.06 ERA in his last five starts.  Estrada is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Kansas City.  Edinson Volquez hasn't enjoyed facing the Blue Jays.  In fact, he's 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA in six lifetime starts against them.  The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. AL Central opponents.  Toronto is 46-20 in its last 66 games overall.  The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Kansas City is 1-4 in Volquez's last 5 starts.  Take Toronto.

7* Astros/Royals ALDS *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -124

The Key:  After coming back to win from 6-2 down in the 8th inning of an elimination game in Game 4, the Royals have all of the momentum coming into Game 5 tonight.  I look for that momentum to carry them to a victory and a second straight trip to the ALCS.  The inexperience on the Astros will show in this winner-take-all game.  Johnny Cueto hasn't exactly been lights out for the Royals, but this is his chance to step up and deliver for the team that believed in him at the trade deadline.  Cueto has been at his best at home, going 6-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 15 starts this year.  Collin McHugh has not been as good on the road, going 8-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 17 starts.  Cueto is 20-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons.   Cueto is 14-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in his career.  The Astros are 44-97 in their last 141 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.

6* Dodgers/Mets NLDS *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -150

The Key: Clayton Kershaw will get the job done tonight and send this series back to Los Angeles.  He lives for these moments and is ready to deliver for his team.  Kershaw is 3-0 with a 1.01 ERA in four lifetime starts at Citi Field, giving up just 3 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings while striking out 31.  He clearly loves throwing in this pitcher's park.  New York is 16-39 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  Los Angeles is 25-4 in Kershaw's last 29 starts against the NL East.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Blue Jays/Rangers ALDS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -129

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays extended this series with a huge 5-1 win on Sunday in Game 3.  They had the advantage on the mound yesterday, and they do again today behind R.A. Dickey.  The knuckleballer is back to pitching like he did when he won the Cy Young.  He is 8-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts since the All-Star Break.  Dickey is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA in 5 career starts in Texas, where he believes his knuckleball is even more effective because of the weather.  "Here it's good because the humidity is usually nice and it's usually warmer, and those are two things that contribute to a moving knuckleball, one that reacts favorably as far as movement's concerned," Dickey said. "That's what I rely on."  He'll be opposed by Derek Holland, who went 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Holland did not finish well, going 1-1 with an 8.05 ERA in his final 3 starts.  The left-hander also sports a 5.44 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts versus Toronto.  The Blue Jays are 11-3 in Dickey's last 14 starts.  The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Toronto.

6* Blue Jays/Rangers Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Toronto -140
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays will win Game 3 to stay alive in this series.  They will do so behind the advantage they have on the mound.  Marco Estrada is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Estrada is 12-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 28 starts this year, and 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Texas.  Martin Perez has struggled most of the season, going 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 14 starts.  The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Estrada's last 5 Sunday starts.  Take Toronto.

6* Cubs/Cards National League *CA$H COW* on Chicago +100

The Key: I believe the Chicago Cubs are the best team in the National League right now.  The Cardinals went 15-16 down the stretch and are not as good as they were earlier in the year en route to winning 101 games.  The Cubs have won 98 games and finished strong, including their 4-0 win over the Pirates in the wild card game.  Jon Lester really turned it on down the stretch, too, proving that he's the ace the Cubs were hoping for when they paid him all that money this offseason.  Lester has given up 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts.  He is 3-3 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in eight career starts against St. Louis.  Take Chicago.

6* Astros/Royals American League *CA$H COW* on Houston +127

The Key: I look for the Houston Astros to ride their momentum from a 3-0 wild card victory over the Yankees into Game 1 of this series with the Royals.  They could easily be last year's Royals with the way they won the wild card game and made the World Series.  This team has more firepower than the Royals did last year, and their entire staff is underrated.  Collin McHugh won 19 games this year with a 3.71 ERA to boot.  He went 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.015 WHIP over his final three starts of 2015, so he came through clutch when the Astros were battling for their playoff lives.  McHugh is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one lifetime starts vs. KC, pitching 7 shutout innings and striking out 9 in a 3-0 Houston victory in Kansas City last May.  Yordano Ventura is not the type of ace most staffs would like to have.  He's 13-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 28 starts this season and very beatable.  The Astros are 6-1 in McHugh's last 7 starts.  Houston is 13-3 in McHugh's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Royals are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.  Take Houston.

7* Cubs/Pirates Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -134

The Key: Jake Arrieta has been unhittable since the All-Star Break.  He sports a 0.75 ERA since the break, which is an MLB record.  His 1.77 ERA on the season is the best mark for the Cubs since 1919.  He has owned the Pirates, too, going 6-1 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them.  In 2015 alone, Arrieta is 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA in 5 starts against the Pirates.  He has only allowed 3 earned runs over 36 innings against Pittsburgh in 2015.  The Cubs are 13-0 in Arrieta's 13 starts as a road favorite this season.  Arrieta is 7-0 against the money line in road games off 3 or more straight wins in his career.  Arrieta is 12-0 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.  That's a 32-0 angle backing Arrieta and the Cubs.  Take Chicago.

7* Astros/Yankees *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 7
The Key: I expect there will be plenty of runs scored in tonight's Wild Card game between the Yankees and Astros.  These are two of the top home run hitting teams in baseball, and Yankee Stadium has yielded the second-most home runs in baseball this year.  The Astros are 2nd with 230 homers, while the Yankees are 4th with 212.  Masahiro Tanaka has given up 25 homers in 154 innings this season, including 17 in 87 1/3 innings at home.  Dallas Keuchel is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA on the road while giving up 13 homers in 102 2/3 innings.  Tanaka gave up 3 homers and 6 earned runs over 5 innings in a 9-6 loss to Houston on June 27 in his only lifetime start against the Astros.  The Astros have combined with their last five opponents to score at least 8 runs.  The Yankees have combined with 5 of their last 6 opponents to score at least 7 runs.  Houston is 10-1 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season.  It is combining with opponents for an average of 12.4 runs per game in this spot.  Take the OVER.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -113

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the American League despite already clinching the AL East division.  That's why they aren't taking their foot off the gas just yet unlike the Rays, who have already clinched a losing record this season.  The Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 games and 43-16 in their last 59 games overall.  Marco Estrada is 13-8 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.067 WHIP over 27 starts and 6 relief appearances, including 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Chris Archer is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 2.113 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Tampa Bay.  Estrada is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.300 WHIP in two lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay, both of which came this season.  He has pitched 16 2/3 shutout innings against the Rays while allowing a mere 5 base runners in 2015.  Archer allowed 9 earned runs and 15 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against Toronto on September 26.  Take Toronto.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -108

The Key: While the Toronto Blue Jays have clinched the AL East division, there is still work to be done.  They are tied with the Kansas City Royals for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  I'll back Mark Buehrle, who is 14-7 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.223 WHIP while continuing to get it done in the twilight of his career.  Erazmo Ramirez hasn't had the greatest success against the Blue Jays, going 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in four lifetime starts against them.  The Blue Jays are 42-16 in their last 58 overall.  The Rays are 1-5 in Ramirez's last six starts.  Take Toronto.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -105

The Key: The Minnesota Twins are just 1.5 games back in the wild card with a fighting chance over their final four games.  They have won four of their last five coming in.  The Twins have a massive advantage on the mound tonight.  Tyler Duffey has been huge for them down the stretch, going 5-1 with a 3.14 ERA in nine starts.  Duffey is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts to boot.  Trevor Bauer has been ineffective all year, going 11-12 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.339 WHIP as a start, including 5-7 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Bauer is 1-2 with a 10.33 ERA and 2.118 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  Duffey pitched 6 shutout innings of one-hit ball in a 4-1 win over the Indians on August 15.  Buaer is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in 6 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland.  The Twins are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Twins are 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Twins are 7-0 in Duffey's last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take this 22-0 angle backing the Twins straight to the bank.  Take Minnesota.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto Blue Jays -162 (Game 1)

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are not only on a mission to win the AL East, they are also looking to earn the No. 1 seed in the American League and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.  They can clinch the AL East for the first time in 22 years with a win today over the Orioles, so they'll be motivated to do so.  They have won five straight coming in and play an Orioles team that has clearly given up.  The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games overall and have been outscored 3-21 in the process.  They have been shut out three times during this stretch.  Marcus Stroman has lit it up here of late, going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  He'll be opposed by Miguel Gonzalez, who is 9-11 with a 4.85 ERA in 25 starts, including 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA in his last three.  The Blue Jays are 41-14 in their last 55 overall.  The Blue Jays are 4-0 in Stroman's last four starts.  The Orioles are 0-7 in Gonzalez's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Toronto in Game 1.

7* Dodgers/Giants NL West *BAILOUT* on San Francisco +125

The Key: As crazy as it may sound, the San Francisco Giants actually still have a shot to come back and win the NL West.  That's because they have won three in a row including Game 1 of this series with the Dodgers.  If they sweep the 4-game series, they'll only be two games back going into their final series.  They clearly have not given up, while the Dodgers have struggled coming in with four straight losses.  Now the Giants send their ace to the mound in Madison Bumgarner and we're getting him as a home underdog, which almost never happens.  Bumgarner is 9-3 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.904 WHIP in 16 home starts this year.  Clayton Kershaw hasn't been as good on the road as he has been at home, going 4-4 with a 2.82 ERA in 15 road starts.  The Dodgers are actually 6-9 (-10.5 units) in his road starts this year.  The Dodgers are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 7-1 n Bumgarner's last 8 home starts.  Los Angeles is 0-7 in its last 7 trips to San Francisco.  The Dodgers are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings when Kershaw faces Bumgarner.  Take San Francisco.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels -168

The Key: I'm willing to lay this heavy price with the Angels tonight due to what's at stake.  They trail the Houston Astros by just 1/2 game for the last wild card spot in the American League.  They have put themselves in this position by going 5-0 in their last five games overall and playing clutch baseball down the stretch.  The Oakland A's are just ready for their season to be over with.  They are just 1-7 in their last eight games overall and have rarely been competitive as six of the losses have come by two runs or more.  Hector Santiago has been dominant at home, going 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 16 starts this year.  He'll be opposed by Felix Doubront, who is 3-3 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 10.20 ERA in his last three.  Santiago is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs. Oakland, while Doubront is 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  The A's are 16-40 in their last 56 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 4-23 in their last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Angels are 7-2 in Santiago's last nine home starts.  Take Los Angeles.

6* MLB Sunday *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-104)

The Key:  The Houston Astros are now in must-win mode after losing three straight.  They are only 1/2 game up on the Angles in the wild card standings.  They cannot afford to lose any more.  They have a massive advantage on the mound today behind Dallas Keuchel, who is 14-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in 17 home starts.  He'll be opposed by Martin Perez, who is 3-5 with a 5.21 ERA in 12 starts, and 0-4 with a 5.59 ERA in 7 road starts.  Take Houston on the Run Line.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on New York Mets -147

The Key: The New York Mets are so close to an NL East title that they can almost taste it.  They have a chance to clinch today with a win and will be hungry to do so.  They get to take on a Cincinnati team that has been a punching bag for the rest of the National League since the All-Star Break.  The Reds have lost six in a row coming in and are 16-35 in their last 51 games overall.  Matt Harvey is having a great season at 12-7 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.030 WHIP in 27 starts.  He'll be opposed by John Lamb, who is 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.762 WHIP in four home starts.  Harvey is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Cincinnati.  The Mets are 22-5 in their last 27 road games.  The Mets are 34-13 in their last 47 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mets are 49-16 (+29.9 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  Take New York.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Houston Astros -125

The Key: The Houston Astros want serious revenge on the Texas Rangers after getting swept in four games from September 14-17.  They now trail the Rangers by 3.5 games in the division and need to really sweep this series to get right back in it.  It starts with Game 1 tonight and the big edge the Astros have on the mound.  Scott Kazmir sports a 2.73 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 29 starts this season, and a 2.13 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 15 home starts.  He'll be opposed by Yovani Gallardo, who is 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings.  Gallardo has posted an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts against Houston while allowing 8 earned runs in 9 innings.  Kazmir is 11-6 with a 2.91 ERA in 23 lifetime starts against Texas.  In 2015 alone, Kazmir is 2-1 with a 1.60 ERA against the Rangers in 5 starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 33 2/3 innings.  Houston is 16-3 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.  The Astros are 43-18 in their last 61 home games.  Take Houston.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Texas Rangers -144

The Key: I backed the Texas Rangers with success yesterday and I'll support them again today.  The Rangers are now 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and on a mission to win the AL West.  The A's are the worst team in the American League and have now lost four straight coming in while giving up 33 runs in the process.  Cole Hamels is enjoying pitching for a contender.  He has allowed 3 or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts with the Rangers.  Chris Bassitt will be making his first start since August 26 and is just 1-6 on the season.  The Rangers are 7-0 in Hamels' last 7 starts.  The A's are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.  Oakland is 16-39 in its last 55 vs. a left-handed starter.  Take Texas.

7* MLB 100% Never Lost *MOUND MISMATCH* on Texas Rangers -117

The Key: The Texas Rangers have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall to take control of the AL West race.  They now lead the Houston Astros by two games and want to keep their foot on the gas to maintain first place.  They continue their series with the lowly Oakland A's (64-87), who have lost three in a row coming in.  The Rangers have a massive advantage on the mound tonight behind Colby Lewis, who is 16-8 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 30 starts, and 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his last two.  One of those was against Oakland on September 11 as he pitched a 2-hit shutout.  Lewis is now 10-4 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 24 lifetime starts versus Oakland.  Felix Doubront is 3-2 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.476 WHIP this season for the A's, including 1-1 with a 7.72 ERA in his last three starts.  Doubront has never beaten the Rangers, going 0-5 with an 11.50 ERA and 2.507 WHIP in five lifetime starts against then.  Enough said.  Take Texas.

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Pittsburgh Pirates -139

The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates have a massive edge on the mound today over the Colorado Rockies.  One of the quietest moves at the trade deadline was acquiring J.A. Happ.  The left-hander has been under the radar, going 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA since joining the Pirates.  He has struck out 26 batters in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts and has a 1.30 ERA in his last seven.  Chris Rusin is 5-8 with a 5.11 ERA this season for Colorado.  The left-hander has a 9.00 ERA in his last five starts as well.  Happ is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Colorado. The Rockies are 1-9 (-8.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more this season.  The Pirates are 6-1 in Happ's last 7 starts.  The Rockies are 33-81 in their last 114 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Boston Red Sox -124

The Key: The Boston Red Sox have been playing their best baseball of the season here down the stretch and are nearly back to .500 because of it.  They have gone 20-11 in their last 31 games overall and have not quit.  The Rays have gone 6-12 in their last 18 games and are just looking forward to the finish line.  Henry Owens has been very sharp in his last two starts, allowing just 1 earned run in 13 innings for a minuscule 0.69 ERA.  Those two starts have come against the Blue Jays and Orioles to boot.  Matt Moore has been awful, going 1-4 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 9 starts this year, and 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.040 WHIP in 4 road starts.  Moore is 2-5 with a 7.03 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Boston.  In two starts against the Red Sox in 2015, Moore has allowed 12 earned runs in 8 innings for a 13.50 ERA.  The Rays are 2-10 in Moore's last 12 starts.  Tampa Bay is 0-7 in Moore's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a left-handed starter.  Take Boston.

7* Yankees/Blue Jays ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -131

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays have lost two of their last three games coming into this one.  They haven't lost three games in a four-game stretch since all the way back on July 24-28.  I look for them to take down the New York Yankees tonight behind a raucous home crowd in Toronto on National TV with this game being televised on ESPN.  Marco Estrada has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball, going 13-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 25 starts and six relief appearances.  In his last 3 starts against the Yankees this season, Estrada has allowed 6 earned runs over 17 1/3 innings.  Luis Severino is a talented young starters, but the Blue Jays have owned him in two starts this year.  Severino is 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in those two starts while allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.  The Blue Jays are 8-0 in Estradas last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Toronto is 38-16 in its last 54 home games.  Take Toronto.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Boston Red Sox +111

The Key: The Boston Red Sox have actually been playing some of their best baseball of the season here down the stretch and are nearly back to .500 because of it.  They have gone 19-11 in their last 30 games overall and clearly have not quit.  The Rays, meanwhile, have gone 6-11 in their last 17 games overall.  Eduardo Rodriquez is having a fine season for Boston, going 9-6 with a 3.94 ERA in 19 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in his last three outings.  Chris Archer is having a good season for Tampa Bay as well, but he's 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in his last three starts.  Archer does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, going 1-6 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts against them.  The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Boston is 7-1 in Rodriquez's last 8 home starts.  Take Boston.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels +100

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels swept both games with the Minnesota Twins yesterday to pull within 1.5 games of the Houston Astros for the final wild card spot in the American League.  I look for the Angels to make a big run here down the stretch to give themselves a chance to get in.  Matt Shoemaker is on top of his game right now, going 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just 1 earned run and 9 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.  Shoemaker is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Minnesota.  He faced the Twins back on July 21, pitching 6 shutout innings and striking out 10 batters in a 7-0 Angels victory.  The Angels are 17-5 in Shoemaker's last 22 road starts.  The Twins are 0-5 in their last five games overall.  Take Los Angeles.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels +107 (Game 1)

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels are just 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  They actually trail the Minnesota Twins, who are just 1.5 games back.  This is obviously a huge series, and I'll back the better team with the better starter on the mound.  The Twins have really choked here of late, losing three straight while giving up a combined 23 runs in the process.  Andrew Heaney is having a fine season for Los Angeles, going 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 15 starts, and 3-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in six road starts.  Kyle Gibson is having a solid season as well, but he's 0-2 with an 8.55 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in four lifetime starts against Los Angeles.  He has given up 17 earned runs over 14 innings in his last three starts against the Angels.  Los Angeles is 34-13 (+20.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.  The Twins are 1-8 in Pelfreys last nine starts vs. American League West opponents.  The Angels are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, and 5-0 in their last five visits to Minnesota.  Take Los Angeles in Game 1.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Houston Astros +103

The Key: The Houston Astros are now 1.5 games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West standings after dropping each of the first three games of this series.  They'll be hungry to avoid the sweep and avoid falling further behind with a win in Game 4 today.  I like them to get the job done at a great price here as underdogs.  Lance McCullers has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year.  McCullers is 5-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Colby Lewis is 15-8 in spite of a 4.45 ERA in 29 starts.  Lewis has been the benefactor of good run support, but I don't expect that to happen today.  Lewis gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against the Astros on August 3.  Texas is 1-9 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.  Take Houston.

7* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Astros -147

The Key: The Texas Rangers are in a letdown spot here.  They just overtook the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West with another win behind some magic late last night.  Sure, they want to extend the lead, but they will be feeling a sense of accomplishment and will let down today.  I like the Astros to come back hungry today, and I also like the fact that they have a massive advantage on the mound.  Dallas Keuchel is 17-7 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three.  Keuchel is 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts versus Texas, including 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in three starts against the Rangers in 2015.  Martin Perez is probably the worst starter on Texas' staff, going 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  The Astros are 9-1 in Keuchel's last 10 starts during game 3 of a series.  Houston is 25-9 in Keuchel's last 34 starts overall.  Take Houston.

7* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox +129

The Key: The Boston Red Sox have quietly been playing some of their best ball of the season down the stretch.  They are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and are playing an Orioles team that is also hot, having won five of their last six.  But the fact of the matter is that neither team has much to play for, so at least they are playing with pride when they don't have to.  The reason I'm backing the Red Sox today is because of the advantage they have on the mound.  Joe Kelly has been on fire, going 8-0 with a 2.59 ERA during his eight-game winning streak.  He has limited opponents to two runs or less in the past seven.  Ubaldo Jimenez is having a decent season at 11-9 with a 4.22 ERA in 28 starts, but this is not a team he has success again.  In fact, Jimenez is 2-4 with a 7.63 ERA and 1.869 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Boston.  Kelly is 14-5 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.  Take Boston.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians -137

The Key: The Cleveland Indians remain alive for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are 4.5 games back and need a big finish.  They have made a nice surge here of late and will be motivated to get back to .500 on the season tonight.  The Royals already have the AL Central wrapped up and have struggled to stay motivated because of it.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall coming in.  Edinson Volquez is 13-7 with a 3.54 ERA on the season, and 2-0 with a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts.  But he's 2-2 with a 9.31 ERA and 2.378 WHIP in five lifetime starts versus Cleveland.  Carlos Carrasco is 12-10 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 26 starts this year.  Carrasco is 4-3 with a 4.20 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus Kansas City, and he's gone 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his last four starts against the Royals.  The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 during game 1 of a series.  Take Cleveland.

6* MLB Sunday Afternoon *Mound Mismatch* on Los Angeles Angels +102

The Key: The Angels are trying to chase down the Rangers for the final wild card spot in the AL.  They even have a shot at catching the Astros for the AL West lead, too, as they are just 3.5 games back. Getting them as home underdogs give the situation is a gift from the books.  That's especially the case when you consider Andrew Heaney is 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 14 starts this year.  I give him the edge over Mike Fiers, who is 4-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in 13 road starts this year.  Fiers is overvalued right now because he recently pitched a no-hitter.  Houston is 4-18 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.  The Astros are 1-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season.  Take Los Angeles.

6* American League *Mound Mismatch* on Boston Red Sox -104

The Key: This is a very good price to get the Red Sox at considering their massive advantage on the mound today.  Plus, the Red Sox have won five of their last seven and have not packed it in.  Rock Porcello has been dominant in his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.940 WHIP while striking out 22 batters in 22 1/3 innings.  Two of those starts came against the Blue Jays and Yankees, so it's not like he has faced weak competition.  Matt Moore has been awful since returning from injury, going 1-3 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in seven starts for the Rays.  Moore is 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA in six lifetime starts versus Boston.  He has allowed 13 earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Red Sox.  Meanwhile, Porcello is 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus Tampa Bay.  He has allowed only 3 earned runs over 22 innings in his last three starts against the Rays.  The Red Sox are 20-7 (+13.9 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more this season.  Take Boston.

6* National League *Mound Mismatch* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-145)

The Key: The Chicago Cubs have a decisive edge on the mound tonight, which is why I'm willing to lay juice even on the -1.5 run line.  Jake Arrieta is making a strong case for the NL Cy Young award down the stretch and is motivated by it.  He has gone 29 straight innings without allowing an earned run.  He is now 18-6 with a 2.03 ERA on the season.  He'll be up against a Phillies team that has lost six of seven coming in with all six losses by 2 runs or more.  Arrieta will be opposed by Adam Morgan, who is 5-5 with a 4.42 ERA in 13 starts, and 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three.  Arrieta is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts against Philadelphia while allowing 4 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings.  Arrieta is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Cubs are winning by an average of 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Take Chicago on the Run Line.

7* AL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Astros -147

The Key: The Houston Astros have lost the first two games of this series to the Oakland A's and will be hungry for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.  The Astros' lead in the AL West has been cut to one game by the Texas Rangers, so they realize they cannot afford to continue losing to poor teams like the A's.  Collin McHugh takes the mound today looking to stop the bleeding.  McHugh is a 15-game winner this season with a 3.54 ERA and 1.260 WHIP.  He has really turned it on down the stretch, going 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last three starts.  He'll be opposed by Aaron Brooks, who is 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in five starts and three relief outings.  Brooks is 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA and 2.500 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 10 innings.  McHugh is 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in three lifetime starts versus Oakland.  The A's are 0-7 (-8.9 Units) against the money line after shutting out a division rival this season.  The Astros are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Astros are 12-2 in McHugh's last 14 starts versus AL West foes.  Take Houston.

7* MLB Tuesday Night *BAILOUT* on Texas Rangers -121

The Key: The Texas Rangers lead the race for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are also just two games back of the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West.  The Seattle Mariners are seven games back in the wild card with little to no chance at this point despite having won five of six coming in.  It's too little too late for them.  I'll back the Rangers again tonight with ace Cole Hamels on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA over his last four starts and is finding a comfort zone in Texas now that these games matter.  He'll be opposed by Taijuan Walker, who is 10-7 with a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts this season.  Hamels is 10-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Rangers are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite.  Texas is 4-0 in Hamels' last four starts.  Take this 22-1 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Texas.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Texas Rangers -113

The Key: The Texas Rangers lead the race for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are also just three games back of the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West.  The Seattle Mariners are six games back in the wild card with little to no chance at this point despite having won five straight coming in.  It's too little too late for them.  I'll back the Rangers and the better starter tonight in Yovani Gallardo, who is 11-9 with a 3.27 ERA in 28 starts, and 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his last three.  Gallardo is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against Seattle in 2015.  Roenis Elias is 4-7 with a 4.35 ERA in 15 starts this season.  Elias is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Texas is 9-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss by 4 runs or more this season.  The Rangers are 8-0 in their last eight games as a favorite.  The Mariners are 1-8 in Elias' last 9 home starts.  Take Texas.

7* NL Sunday Afternoon *Mound Mismatch* on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-113)

The Key: The Washington Nationals are in must-win mode from here on out.  They are 5 games behind the New York Mets for first place in the NL East with 27 games to play.  They have won four in a row coming in while outscoring the opposition 32-8 in the process.  Three of those victories came against the lowly Braves, who have clearly packed it in.  Atlanta is 0-11 in its last 11 games overall while losing by at least two runs in all 11 games, making for a perfect 11-0 run line angle backing the Nationals.  Manny Banuelos is 0-3 with a 5.83 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in his last three starts and has made just five starts on the season.  Joe Ross has been unstoppable at home, going 4-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.823 WHIP in six home starts this year.  Take Washington on the Run Line.

6* MLB Saturday Night *CA$H COW* on San Francisco Giants +108

The Key: The San Francisco Giants still have an outside shot of making the postseason.  It's going to take something spectacular down the stretch, and I don't think they have thrown in the towel yet.  Getting them as underdogs against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Colorado Rockies is a great value Saturday.  That's especially the case when you consider how poor Chad Bettis has pitched for the Rockies this year.  He's 6-4 with a 4.78 ERA in 15 starts, and 3-2 with a 5.28 ERA in 8 home starts.  Take San Francisco.

7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -167

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays just cannot be tamed right now.  They are 23-5 in their last 28 games overall and determined to win the AL East.  The Baltimore Orioles are stuck in reverse.  They are 2-12 in their last 14 games overall to essentially play themselves out of the postseason.  They aren't in a good state of mind right now like the Blue Jays are.  Betting on Drew Hutchison at home as been a wide move this year.  Hutchison is 11-1 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in 14 home starts.  He is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP in his last three starts overall, saving his best for last.  He'll be opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 3-7 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in 15 road starts, and 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.897 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Hutchison is 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Baltimore.  Hutchison is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.  Hutchison is 10-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  Take Toronto.

6* MLB *Motivational Mismatch* on San Francisco Giants -122

The Key: The San Francisco Giants have lost five straight and are in desperate need of a victory now.  They trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by 6.5 games for the NL West lead.  If they are going to be making the postseason, they have to put together a huge run down the stretch, and it starts with this series against lowly Colorado (54-78), which has the third-worst record in baseball.  Ryan Vogelsong has been an average starter this year at 9-10 with a 4.19 ERA.  He is 6-3 with a 4.41 ERA in 12 starts against Colorado. In his only start against the Rockies this year, Vogelsong pitched six shutout innings of an 11-8 win at Coors Field on May 22.  Chris Rusin is the worse starter in this matchup.  Rusin is 4-7 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in 16 starts and 5 relief outings, and 1-2 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts.  The Giants are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  The Rockies are 1-10 in Rusin's last 11 starts as an underdog.  Take San Francisco.

7* MLB Never Lost *Mound Mismatch* on Texas Rangers -131

The Key: The Texas Rangers have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games overall to take over the final wild card spot in the American League.  They have a lot to play for right now, while the San Diego Padres do not.  Getting Cole Hamels at this price is a gift from oddsmakers.  Hamels is 8-8 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 25 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts with the Rangers.  Ian Kennedy is 8-12 with a 3.94 ERA in 24 starts, and 6-4 with a 4.48 ERA in 12 home starts, which is really poor considering his pitchers in a pitcher's park at Petco.  Hamels is 9-2 with a 2.15 ERA in 16 lifetime starts versus San Diego.  In his last two starts against the Padres, he has allowed just one earned run in 15 innings while striking out 20.  Kennedy is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two lifetime starts versus Texas, having never beaten the Rangers.  The Padres are 1-8 in their last 9 interleague home games.  The Padres are 16-36 in their last 52 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take Texas.

7* AL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+100)

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are 24-6 in their last 30 games overall.  The amazing part about that is the fact that 21 of their 24 wins have come by two runs or more.  They have been blowing out the opposition on the regular, and after losing yesterday, I look for them to get back to crushing the opposition Tuesday.  Marco Estrada is 11-8 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 21 starts and six relief outings in 2015.  He has proven to be a huge addition to the rotation this year.  Cody Anderson is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA in nine starts for the Indians.  Anderson has really been battered recently, going 0-1 with a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts.  He has allowed 11 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings during this span, and now he faced the most potent lineup in baseball in the Blue Jays.  The Indians are 51-111 in their last 162 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Blue Jays are 10-2 in their last 12 games following a loss.  The Blue Jays are 41-19 in their last 60 home games.  Take Toronto on the Run Line.

7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas Rangers +114

The Key: The Texas Rangers (68-61) are rolling right now and should not be underdogs to the San Diego Padres.  The Rangers have won four straight and seven of their last nine to take over the last wild card spot in the American League.  Of course, they have a plethora of teams right on their heels, so they cannot afford to let up.  The San Diego Padres (63-67) have nothing to play for at this point, and it has shown with their play of late.  The Padres have gone 2-5 in their last seven games overall.  Colby Lewis has gone 14-6 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 26 starts, 8-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in 13 road starts, and 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts.  Tyson Ross is 3-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in 11 home starts this year.  That's pretty bad when you consider he pitches inside pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  He has walked an MLB-high 72 batters this season.  The Rangers are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games as an underdog.  The Rangers are 6-0 in Lewis' last 6 starts during game 1 of a series. The Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague home games.  Take Texas.

7* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-101)

The Key: The Washington Nationals have won 5 of their last 7 games overall with each of their two losses coming by a single run.  They are making their move to try and catch the Mets in the NL East.  Now they have a massive advantage on the mound over the lowly Marlins in the finale of this series Sunday.  Stephen Strasburg is 4-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in eight home starts this year.  Strasburg is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Brad Hand is 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in four road starts this year.  Hand has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.921 WHIP in seven lifetime starts against them.  Strasburg is 19-2 (+16.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday for his career.  The Nationals are winning by an average of 3.0 runs per game in his Sunday starts.  Take Washington on the Run Line.

7* American League *Mound Mismatch* on Seattle Mariners -105

The Key: These are two teams that don't have a lot to play for right now, but I like what I've seen from the Mariners better here of late.  They have won four of their last six, while the White Sox have dropped four of their last six.  I also like the fact that Seattle has the advantage on the mound in this one.  Hisashi Iwakuma is 5-3 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 13 starts, and 2-0 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in five road starts.  He is also 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in four starts this month.  But what really stands out is that Iwakuma is 1-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.522 WHIP in three lifetime starts versus Chicago.  Jeff Samardzija is 8-10 with a 4.75 ERA in 26 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 5.78 ERA in his last three.  He has pretty much packed it in in the second half.  He is 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA in five August starts thus far.  The Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The White Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog.  Take Seattle.

7* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland A's -113

The Key: The Arizona Diamondbacks are extremely deflated right now.  They just got swept in a 4-game series by the St. Louis Cardinals to fall 8.5 games back in the NL West standings.  That series pretty much sealed their fate that they won't be going to the postseason.  I don't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to face the Oakland A's today, who had yesterday off while the Diamondbacks played and lost Thursday.  Now they have to face one of the best starters in baseball in Sonny Gray.  The right-hander has gone 12-5 with a 2.10 ERA in 25 starts, including 8-2 with a 1.64 ERA in 13 road starts.  Gray will be opposed by Chase Anderson, who is 6-5 with a 4.28 ERA in 22 starts this season.  Anderson is 2-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 home starts, and 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA in his last three outings overall.  Arizona is 0-7 (-7.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.  The A's are 39-18 in their last 57 interleague games as a favorite.  Oakland is 7-0 in its last seven games as a road favorite.  The A's are 7-1 in Gray's last 8 road starts.  The Diamondbacks are 24-50 in their last 74 games as a home underdog.  Arizona is 20-52 in its last 72 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take Oakland.

7* National League *Mound Mismatch* on San Francisco Giants -158

The Key: The San Francisco Giants are in a battle with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West.  They are also chasing the Cubs in the wild card.  They put an end to a 3-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Cubs yesterday.  Now, I expect them to win again today and take the series behind their ace in Madison Bumgarner.  The left-hander is 15-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 25 starts, 7-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 13 home starts, and 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.658 WHIP in his last three.  While Bumgarner is pitching his best ball of the season, Dan Haren has gone the other direction.  Haren is 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in his last three outings.  Bumgarner is 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against Chicago as well.  Bumgarner is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.  The Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home favorite.  The Giants are 8-0 in Bumgarners last 8 starts vs. National League Central.  Take San Francisco.

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh Pirates -142

The Key: Off a rare loss to the Miami Marlins yesterday, I look for the Pirates to come back hungry tonight for a win as they continue their pursuit of the St. Louis Cardinals for first place in the NL Central.  The Pirates are still 10-3 in their last 13 games and have been a resilient bunch to boot.  They  have gone 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.  The Marlins simply aren't very good and I have plenty of confidence in laying this kind of juice to fade them.  Jeff Locke has had plenty of success against Miami.  He is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA in six lifetime starts against them.  He has given up just 5 earned runs over 20 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Chris Narveson will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins.  The Pirates are 9-0 in their last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Pirates are 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 5-0 in Locke's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NL *Never Lost* Mound Mismatch on St. Louis Cardinals -119

The Key: We're getting the best team in baseball at a very generous price tonight when you consider they actually have the advantage on the mound, too.  Jamie Garcia has been nothing short of spectacular, going 5-4 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.930 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He is 2-2 with a 1.32 ERA in five road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his last three starts overall.  Garcia is also 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in four lifetime starts against Arizona having never lost.  He'll be opposed by Robbie Ray, who is 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in six home starts this season.  The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in his six home starts.  Ray is also 0-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Take St. Louis.

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh Pirates -153

The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates are breathing down the neck of the St. Louis Cardinals for first place in the NL Central.  They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and aren't about to slow down against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Miami Marlins.  That's why I'm willing to lay this kind of juice with the Pirates tonight.  J.A. Happ has pitched lights-out over his last two starts, going 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA while allowing just one earned run in 11 1/3 innings.  Happ is 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA in six lifetime starts versus Miami.  Tom Koehler is just an average starter in this league, going 8-11 with a 4.02 ERA in 23 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA in his last three.  Koehler has never beaten the Pirates, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in three lifetime starts against them.  Take that 100% never lost angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay Rays -123

The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays (62-61) are fighting to stay alive for the postseason.  They have won three straight one-run games coming in to give them a ton of confidence.  I look for them to sweep an Oakland A's (53-71) team that is just 2-9 in its last 11 games overall and with little to play for.  The key is that Tampa has a big advantage on the mound.  Jake Odorizzi is one of the most underrated starters in baseball, going 6-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 20 starts.  Kendall Gravemen has been the weakest link in the A's rotation this year.  Gravemen is 6-9 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in 20 starts, and 0-2 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in his last three.  The A's are 0-7 in Graveman's last 7 starts.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas Rangers -118

The Key:  The Detroit Tigers are so desperate for a starting pitcher that they went out and got Randy Wolf to start a game today against the surging Texas Rangers.  The Rangers are right in the thick of the AL wild card race and playing their best baseball of the season.  I'll back them at this tremendous price Saturday.  Yovani Gallardo is 9-9 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Gallardo sports a 3.86 ERA in his career against Detroit.  The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Tigers are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Take Texas.

7* National League *Mound Mismatch* on San Francisco Giants -130

The Key: It's getting closer to the postseason, and with the Giants fighting for the NL West title and to stay alive in the wild card, it's no surprise that Madison Bumgarner has stepped up his game a notch.  The left-hander is 3-0 with a 0.71 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in his last three starts to drop his season numbers to 14-6 (2.98 ERA, 1.035 WHIP).  He has pitched two straight complete games, with his last being a shutout and 14 K's.  Bumgarner sports a 2.38 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in five lifetime starts versus tonight's opponent, the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Jeff Locke gets the ball for Pittsburgh and is nowhere near on Bumgarner's level.  The left-hander is 6-7 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 23 starts.  Locke sports an 8.68 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in two lifetime starts versus San Francisco.  Bumgarner is 17-1 (+16.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Bumgarner is 17-1 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  Take San Francisco.

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -191

The Key: I have won with the Nationals the past two days as they've outscored the Rockies 19-7 while going 2-0.  I'll back them to cap off the sweep tonight due to the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.  Plus, the Rockies are just 1-8 in their last nine games overall and appear to have quit.  Max Scherzer is worth the price of admission today.  The right-hander is 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 24 starts, and 7-4 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 13 road starts.  He'll be opposed by Yohan Flande, who is 2-1 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.266 WHIP over 38 2/3 innings pitched this season.  Flande is 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in three lifetime starts versus Washington.  Scherzer is 24-3 (+18.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 2 seasons.  That's why it's safe to lay this kind of juice with him.  Take Washington.

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -146

The Key: The Washington Nationals put an end to their six-game losing streak yesterday with a 15-6 victory over the Rockies, who have gone 1-7 in their last eight games overall.  I look for that scoring outburst to be a signs of things to come for the Nationals, who are finally getting healthy.  Stephen Strasburg just recently returned to the rotation from injury, and he has been nothing short of dominant.  Strasburg is 1-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three starts with 23 K's in 16 2/3 innings.  Strasburg is also 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in six lifetime starts versus Colorado.  Jorge De La Rosa has not enjoyed pitching at home this year, going 2-2 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.629 WHIP in 10 starts at Coors Field.  De La Rosa sports a 4.12 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in nine lifetime starts versus Washington.  The Nationals are 9-2 in their last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Washington is 4-1 in Strasburg's last 5 starts.  The Rockies are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Colorado is 0-7 in its last seven games with a total set of 9.0-10.5.  Take Washington.

7* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -148

The Key: The time is now for the Washington Nationals to get their act together and make a run at the NL East crown.  They have lost six straight coming in, but now they take on a team that has struggled just as much in the Rockies, who have lost 6 of their last 7.  The Nationals just have a lot more to play for right now, plus they have the clear advantage on the mound.  Jordan Zimmerman is 8-8 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He owns the Rockies, going 5-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them.  David Hale is 3-4 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.388 WHIP this season for Colorado.  Hale has been brutal of late, going 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Nationals are 45-16 in Zimmermann's last 61 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nationals are 63-23 in Zimmermann's last 86 starts as a favorite.  The Rockies are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Rockies are 0-5 in Hale's last 5 starts.  Take Washington.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas Rangers -124

The Key: The Texas Rangers have won four straight games and are now right in the thick if the AL wild card race.  They are only one game behind the Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot.  They traded for Cole Hamels before the deadline, and now that move could really pay off going forward to get them in the postseason.  Hamels is 6-8 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.201 WHIP in 22 starts this season, and 2-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 10 home starts.  He's better than Seattle's Taijuan Walker, sho is 8-7 with a 4.60 ERA in 23 starts this year, and 6-4 with a 5.03 ERA in 13 road starts.  The Mariners are 17-35 in their last 52 games following a win.  The Rangers are 10-1 in their last 11 home games.  Take Texas.

7* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Padres -103

The Key: The San Diego Padres have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall.  They have not quit on their season and have scored a combined 30 runs in their past four games.  The Colorado Rockies appear to have quit.  They have gone 0-6 in their last six games overall and have scored only 15 combined runs in the process.  The Padres have the advantage on the mound behind Ian Kennedy, who is 7-10 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 21 starts, 2-6 with 3.81 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Plus, Kennedy is 6-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 19 lifetime starts versus Colorado.  Chris Rusin is 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in 13 starts this year, and 0-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Padres are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.  The Padres are 4-1 in Kennedy's last 5 starts versus Colorado.  Take San Diego.

7* Nationals/Giants NL Saturday Night 'Bailout' on Washington -105

The Key: The Washington Nationals will be hungry for a victory after dropping the first two games of this series to the San Francisco Giants.  They have now lost four in a row and are desperate for a victory to turn their season around.  Surprisingly, Gio Gonzalez has been their best starter over the past couple months.  The left-hander is 5-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his last eight starts.  Gonzalez hasn't lost to San Francisco since 2010, going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in five meetings since.  Jake Peavy is 2-5 with a 3.76 ERA in nine starts this season for the Giants.  Peavy is 4-6 with a 3.72 ERA in 13 lifetime starts versus Washington.  Peavy is 29-57 (-23.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career.  The Nationals are 13-3 in Gonzalez's last 16 starts vs. National League West.  The Nationals are 47-23 in Gonzalez's last 70 starts as a favorite.  The Giants are 0-6 in Peavy's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Washington.

7* AL Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-104)

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball.  They have won 11 in a row with 10 of those victories coming by 2 runs or more.  That's why I have no problem backing them on the run line today against the struggling Yankees, who have lost 5 of 6 to fall behind the Blue Jays in the AL East.  Ace David Price gets the ball for Toronto, and he's 11-4 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 23 starts this year.  He has won each of his first two starts with the Blue Jays, allowing 1 run in 15 innings.  One of those was against the Yankees on August 8 in his last start as he pitched 7 shutout innings of a 6-0 victory.  Ivan Nova does not enjoy facing this potent Toronto lineup.  Nova sports a 4.83 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus New York.  The Blue Jays are 10-1 against the run line in their last 11 games overall.  Take Toronto.

7* Nationals/Giants NL Thursday Night 'Bailout' on Washington -127

The Key: The Washington Nationals really need to pick it up now if they want to make the postseason.  They were shut out the past two days and have dropped to 58-55 on the season.  One of the teams they are chasing is the San Francisco Giants (60-53), so they will be hungry in Game 1 of this series tonight.  They have the edge on the mound behind Stephen Strasburg, who is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.623 WHIP in his last three starts.  He struck out 12 and allowed just 1 run and 3 base runners in 7 innings of a 6-1 win over Colorado in his first start back from injury on August 8.  Ryan Vogelsong is no more than an average starter, going 7-8 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.391 WHIP over 17 starts and 8 relief outings this season.  Strasburg is 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 7 lifetime starts versus San Francisco, while Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 6.12 ERA in 7 lifetime starts versus Washington.  The Nationals are 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts.  The Giants are 1-4 in Vogelsong's last 5 starts as an underdog.  Take Washington.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore Orioles +120

The Key: The Baltimore Orioles are now two games back in the wild card and still alive for the AL East division.  They have been one of the most resilient teams in baseball here of late.  In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 in their last six games following a loss.  They haven't lost consecutive games since July 23-24.  After last night's tough 5-6 loss to the Mariners, I look for them to bounce back with a win Wednesday.  Kevin Gausman has pitched pretty well with a 4.56 ERA in spite of a solid 1.220 WHIP over 53 1/3 innings this season.  Guasman is 1-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  He'll be opposed by Hisashi Iwakuma, who is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in 10 starts, and 2-2 with a 5.35 ERA in six home starts.  Gausman sports a 1.35 ERA in his only lifetime start versus Seattle.  The Mariners are 17-35 in their last 52 games following a win.  The Orioles are 8-2 in Gausman's last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take Baltimore.

7* AL Tuesday 'Mound Mismatch' on Los Angeles Angels -115

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels find themselves not only in a dog fight with the Houston Astros to win the AL West, but also with several teams to hold on to the final wild card spot in the American League.  The Chicago White Sox (52-58) have really fallen out of that race by going 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.  With the advantage the Angels have on the mound today, they should be much heavier favorites.  Hector Santiago is 7-5 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who is 4-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 15 starts and three relief appearances.  Rodon is 3-3 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.672 WHIP in eight home starts, and 1-1 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.743 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Angels are 5-0 in Santiago's last 5 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The White Sox are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Nationals/Dodgers National League 'Bailout' on Washington +115

The Key: The Washington Nationals are 5 games out of the wild card and 1.5 games back of the Mets for first place in the NL East. This is a much more important series for them than Los Angeles, which leads San Francisco by 3 games in the West.  I'll back the red-hot Gio Gonzalez at a great price tonight.  Gonzalez is 4-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last seven starts.  He is also 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three lifetime starts versus Los Angeles.  Brett Anderson has been decent this year at 6-6 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in 21 starts for the Dodgers.  But Anderson is 1-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.  Gonzalez is 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.   The Nationals are 12-3 in Gonzalez's last 15 starts vs. NL West foes.  Take Washington.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Angels -120

The Key: After getting shut out 5-0 by the Baltimore Orioles yesterday, the Los Angeles Angels will be motivated Sunday to win this series.  This is a very generous price to back Jered Weaver, who is 2-2 with a 3.43 ERA in six home starts this year.  Weaver is 8-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in 13 lifetime starts versus Baltimore.  He'll be opposed by Miguel Gonzalez, who is 9-8 with a 4.32 ERA in 20 starts this year.  Gonzalez is 5-5 with a 4.64 ERA in 10 road starts as well.  The Orioles are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Angels are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a favorite.  The Angels are 45-16 in Weaver's last 61 home starts.  Take Los Angeles.

7* MLB 'Never Lost' Mound Mismatch on Los Angeles Angels -145

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels have a very favorable starting pitching match-up today that I'm going to back.  Garrett Richards has been solid all season, going 11-8 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.177 WHIP in 20 starts.  He has been especially dominant at home, going 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in 10 starts.  Richards gave up 2 earned runs over 7 2/3 innings in his only start against the Orioles in 2015 back on May 17.  Ubaldo Jimenez is 2-5 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 12 road starts this year.  He has been battered of late, going 1-2 with a 9.64 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his last three starts.  But what stands out most is that Jimenez is 0-5 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts versus Los Angeles.  That's right, he and his teams are winless in all 5 starts.  Jimenez drops to 0-6 for his career against the Angels after tonight folks.  Take Los Angeles.