Sports Picks & Predictions

Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -1	Top	6-26	Win	100	10 h 33 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Ravens -1 Bottom Line: The Ravens are in a much better spot playing a home game off a home game in a short week. It's much tougher going on the road in a short week. Baltimore has won 4 of its last 6 in the series, and I believe it will be the more motivated side after falling to Cincinnati in Week 1. The Ravens have been outstanding at home, going an amazing 39-10 in their last 49 regular-season home games. Playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game that are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in an 80-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Baltimore.
09-11-14	Louisiana Tech +4 v. North Texas		42-21	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
4* Major NCAAF SUREFIRE on Louisiana Tech +4 Bottom Line: Playing against home teams in the first month of the season has resulted in a 60-25 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they allowed opponents to complete 58% or more of their passes last season. North Texas won last season's meeting 28-13 despite being outgained and giving up 367 yards through the air because it finished the game +2 in turnover margin. The Bulldogs led the game 10-0 but found themselves down 14-10 at the half after giving up a 56-yard pick-6 that really swung the momentum. I look for the Bulldogs to take better care of the football this time around - they've only had 1 giveaway this season - and to have their revenge.
09-08-14	NY Giants v. Detroit Lions -6	Top	14-35	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
5* Wiseguy MNF BEST BET on Lions -6 Bottom Line: The Lions will be the hungrier team tonight. They were defeated at home in overtime in Week 16 by the Giants last season in a game they led by 7 points late in the 4th quarter. They outgained the Giants 355 to 279 in the game and dominated the time of possession. They should have won the contest, and I expect them to have their revenge. While NY made improvements to the defensive side of the football, an offensive line that allowed Eli Manning to be sacked a career-high 39 times remains suspect, especially since free-agent pickup Geoff Schwartz will be out at least the first 7 games with a dislocated toe. I expect Suh, Fairley and company to wreak havoc tonight. Pound the Lions.
09-07-14	Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5		24-31	Loss	-102	57 h 12 m	Show
4* Major Sunday Night Football BLOOD BATH on Broncos -7.5 Bottom Line: The Broncos enter the season highly motivated following a pathetic showing in the Super Bowl. A 39-33 loss at Indy last year should only add fuel to the fire. Denver is 16-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-9.5 points under John Fox. Additionally, playing against road underdogs of 3.5-10 points that has a winning record last season has resulted in an 18-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons. For Manning, last year's defeat to his former club can't be sitting well. Look for him to do something about it here.
09-07-14	Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2	Top	20-14	Loss	-120	53 h 7 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFC South Game of the Year on Buccaneers -2 Bottom Line: I love the Bucs in their season opener. They have a coach (Lovie Smith) who has shown he can win in the National Football League, and I expect him to have them extremely well prepared. Plus, Tampa will be extremely motivated by a pair of butt-kickings they received by Carolina last season. The Bucs will be improved on both sides of the football, and they catch Carolina at the perfect time. Cam Newton isn't healthy, and he has a new receiving corps to adjust to. It takes time to build timing and chemistry, and I don't expect the Panthers to have it early. The favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run in this series, and I look for this trend to continue. Pound the Bucs.
09-07-14	New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3		34-37	Win	100	50 h 41 m	Show
4* Major Oddsmaker Error on Falcons +3 Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Falcons went 4-12 last season but had 7 defeats of 7 points or fewer. This series has been highly competitive with the home team holding the advantage. The home side has won or lost by 3 points or less in 11 of the last 12 meetings so I feel really good about catching a field goal in this one. The Falcons aren't used to losing, especially at home, so they'll be looking to send a message right out of the gate.
09-07-14	Buffalo Bills +7 v. Chicago Bears		23-20	Win	100	50 h 38 m	Show
4* Major NFL UNDERDOG SHOCKER on Bills +7 Bottom Line: The Bills have a legit opportunity to shock a Bears team that is getting way too much respect from odds makers. The Bears shined offensively in 2013 but ranked 30th in total defense and gave up a league-high 2,583 rushing yards. The Bears are a weak 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Underdogs of 3.5-10 points that won just 25-40% of their games last season are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Grab the points.
09-06-14	Northern Illinois v. Northwestern -7		23-15	Loss	-110	27 h 47 m	Show
4* Major Non-Conference Blowout on Northwestern -7 Bottom Line: Look for Northwestern to respond following last week's upset home loss to Cal. NIU looked strong against Presbyterian but takes a big step up in class here. The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests. Bet Northwestern.
09-06-14	Navy -3 v. Temple		31-24	Win	100	24 h 15 m	Show
4* Major Oddsmaker Error on Navy -3 Bottom Line: Temple, which won only 2 games last season, looks to be improved, but I'll gladly lay a field goal with Navy. The Owls kicked Vanderbilt last week, but the Commodores really helped them out with 7 turnovers. Navy's not going to cough it up like that. Navy's ground game was strong against mighty Ohio State, racking up 370 yards on 63 carries, and I don't see Temple having an answer for it. Playing against home teams in the first month of the season with just 5 offensive starters returning, provided they closed last season with at least 4 losses in their last 5 games, has resulted in a 35-11 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 13-2 ATS the last 3 seasons.
09-06-14	Kansas State v. Iowa State +13	Top	32-28	Win	100	23 h 20 m	Show
5* Wiseguy College Football Underdog Game of the Week on Iowa State +13 Bottom Line: Motivated by a 34-14 loss to FCS North Dakota State, and with last season's 41-7 defeat at K-State adding fuel to the fire, I expect a major response from Paul Rhoads' team. K-State has won 6 straight in the series, but the previous 5 victories have come by 8 points or fewer. The Cyclones have won or played the Wildcats to within 6 points or less in each of the last 4 meetings in Ames. Home dogs of 10.5-21 points with 8 or more offensive starters returning including the QB are 40-12 ATS since 1992 following a game where they were outgained by 225 yards or more. Pound the Cyclones.
09-05-14	Washington State -3.5 v. Nevada	Top	13-24	Loss	-100	15 h 45 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Washington State -3.5 Bottom Line: The Cougars will be hungry following a tough loss to Rutgers in their opener. After dropping last year's opener to Auburn, Washington State bounced back strong with a win at Southern Cal. I expect a similar response here. The Cougars were a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games last season, and they are 6-0 ATS under Leach in road games after allowing 475 or more total yards. Playing on any team in the first 2 weeks of the season that was a bowl team the previous season has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they lost their last 2 games the previous season and had a losing record. Pound Washington State.
09-04-14	Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks	Top	16-36	Loss	-110	10 h 29 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL Opener on Packers +6 Bottom Line: The reigning Super Bowl champs are being overvalued in their home opener as you might expect. Green Bay enters the season hungry following a mediocre 8-8-1 campaign and will draw a little extra motivation from getting robbed in Seattle by the "Fail Mary" when it last visited in 2012. Despite the loss, the Packers have won or lost by fewer than the 6 points we are getting here in 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 versus Seattle. That's a 7-1 trend with a perfect 4-0 tightener. Green Bay is a reliable 40-27 ATS in road games under coach McCarthy, and I expect it to take the Seahawks down to the wire tonight.
09-04-14	Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7.5	Top	26-23	Win	100	11 h 16 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF PRIMETIME PUNISHER (FoxS1) on UTSA +7.5 Bottom Line: We cashed an easy winner on the Roadrunners last week, and we'll ride them again here. Consider that non-conference home dogs of 3.5-10 points are 30-6 ATS the last 10 seasons if they had a winning record the previous season. Additionally, playing against non-conference road favorites of 3.5-10 points in a matchup between teams that had winning records the previous season has resulted in a 45-16 ATS record since 1992. The Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 17-8 ATS as underdogs under coach Coker. Pound UTSA.
09-01-14	Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville	Top	13-31	Loss	-110	12 h 5 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Miami +3.5 Bottom Line: This isn't the same Louisville team that kicked Miami in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. Teddy Bridgewater is gone and so is head coach Charlie Strong. In addition, the Cardinals bring back only 4 starters on the defensive side of the football, and preseason 1st Team All ACC receiver Devante Parker is expected to miss 6 weeks. Miami returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that started last season 7-0. I expect another strong start from the Hurricanes, who are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games as underdogs of 7 points or fewer. Pound Miami.
08-31-14	Utah State +5.5 v. Tennessee		7-38	Loss	-116	10 h 51 m	Show
4* Major NCAAF SUREFIRE on Utah State +5.5 Bottom Line: Playing against home teams that return 5 offensive starters in the first month of the season, provided they closed last season with 4 losses or more in their last 5 games, has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 6.1 points on average but have lost straight up by 1.1 points on average. This system has produced a near-perfect 13-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Utah State's stingy defense has held 8 of its last 12 foes to 17 points or fewer. Look for the Aggies to keep this one within the number behind a strong defensive effort.
08-30-14	Clemson v. Georgia -7.5		21-45	Win	100	27 h 58 m	Show
4* Major MARQUEE MATCHUP Georgia -7.5 Bottom Line: Look for Clemson to take a step back after losing Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins. Georgia lost by 3 points to Clemson last season but had won the previous 5 meetings with the last 4 of those wins coming by 15.3 points on average. Georgia has typically dominated ACC foes, going 22-9 ATS versus the league since 1992. Georgia leads the all-time series 41-18-4, and I expect the SEC to flex its muscles here.
08-30-14	Arkansas +19.5 v. Auburn		21-45	Loss	-108	26 h 40 m	Show
4* Major SEC SUREFIRE on Arkansas +19.5 Bottom Line: We'll look to take advantage of an inflated line that stems from Arkansas underachieving and Auburn overachieving last season. With the exception of a 4-game rough patch in the middle of the season, the Razorbacks were very competitive last season. 6 of their losses came by 18 points or less. 6 of Auburn's 2013 victories came by single digits. The Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Auburn. Bet Arkansas.
08-30-14	Ohio State -16 v. Navy	Top	34-17	Win	100	22 h 3 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF Blowout Game of the Week on Ohio State -16 Bottom Line: I'll back the Buckeyes in what should be an inspired performance from them. They ended last season on a sour note, dropping their last two games after winning their first 12. As if that's not enough motivation, they'll be out to prove they are national title contenders even without Braxton Miller. I don't think Miller's absence will matter. The Buckeyes have more speed, more size and more athleticism all over the field on both sides of the ball. I look for them to really dominate the line of scrimmage. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points are 43-15 ATS the last 10 seasons if they won 80% or more of their games the previous season. Teams fitting this system have been favored by 15.2 points on average, but have won by 22.5 points on average. This system is 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound Ohio State.
08-29-14	Texas-San Antonio +11.5 v. Houston	Top	27-7	Win	100	10 h 18 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on UTSA +11.5 Bottom Line: The Roadrunners were embarrassed at home by Houston last season, and they will be out for some serious revenge as a result. They lost the game 59-28, but the score doesn't tell the entire story as they outgained Houston. The difference was a minus-5 turnover margin. I just don't see there being such a huge difference in the turnover column this time around, which means these 11.5 points are looking pretty good, especially since the Roadrunners return 20 starters. UTSA is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games, 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 non-conference contests. The Cougars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on turf. Pound the Road runners.
08-28-14	Tulane v. Tulsa -6.5	Top	31-38	Win	100	7 h 6 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF BEST BET on Tulsa -6.5 Bottom Line: This game is about revenge for Tulsa, which had won 8 straight over Tulane by an average of 30.9 points. Tulsa is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home during this stretch. These 4 home wins have come by an average of 36.8 points. The Golden Hurricane outgained the Green Wave in last year's loss but was done in by 8 penalties totaling nearly 100 yards and a -2 turnover margin. Look for Tulsa to have its revenge at home.
02-02-14	Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos -2	Top	43-8	Loss	-106	294 h 39 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Super Bowl BEST BET on Broncos -2 Bottom Line: Seattle has the No. 1 defense in the NFL, but Denver has the best offense in the league and Seattle hasn't seen anything like it all season. If you want to beat Denver, you better be able to put some points on the board, and I don't see Seattle putting up quite enough. In Denver's 3 losses it gave up 27, 34 and 39 points, and I don't see Seattle putting up a number that big. The Seahawks average 25.7 ppg but have averaged just 20.5 over their last 6 games. So much of what Seattle does offensively stems from its running game and Denver has shown it can stop the run with its 7th-ranked run defense. Ultimately, I love the veteran Peyton Manning making more plays than Russell Wilson. Manning has the decisive edge in terms of experience. I also believe he'll want this game just a little bit more as he tries to put an exclamation point on a sensational career. Seattle is on a 6-17 ATS slide when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more while Denver is on a 15-2 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. The Broncos are also an impressive 21-8 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Pound Denver.
01-19-14	San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks		17-23	Loss	-103	98 h 13 m	Show
4* Major NFC Championship PUNISHER on 49ers +3.5 Bottom Line: I like the 49ers catching better than a field goal in a game that very likely will come down to a field goal. San Francisco's last two trips to Seattle haven't gone well, but the 49ers are playing far too good on both sides of the football and are playing with far too much confidence not to take the Seahawks down to the wire with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. In a game I expect to be close, I give the edge to a San Francisco team that is playing in its 3rd straight NFC Championship game and has proven it can win big games on the road. Last year, the 49ers beat the Falcons in Atlanta to advance to the Super Bowl. The previous year they lost a 3-point game at home in OT to the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants. Colin Kaepernick also has more big game experience than Russell Wilson. Kaepernick is 4-1 in the postseason, including 3-0 on the road. The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 true road games. They are also 10-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
01-19-14	New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos -4	Top	16-26	Win	100	95 h 45 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL Conference Championship Game of the Year on Broncos -4 Bottom Line: The Patriots won the regular-season meeting, but they were at home and had to overcome a 24-0 deficit. They also had the services of Rob Gronkowski in that game while Denver didn't have Julius Thomas. New England hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 1-5 ATS in its last 6, and it clearly has fewer weapons than Denver. The Patriots have leaned on their running game lately, but Denver's 7th-ranked run defense won't allow them to do so. And without Gronk commanding attention, Julian Edelman with have a tougher time finding openings. Peyton Manning's stable of playmakers (Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Knowshon Moreno and Julius Thomas) should find plenty of success against a depleted New England defense. The Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Championship games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Denver is also 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.6 points in these games. Pound Denver.
01-12-14	San Diego Chargers +9.5 v. Denver Broncos		17-24	Win	100	97 h 27 m	Show
4* Major Divisional Playoffs Bailout on Chargers +9.5 Bottom Line: The Chargers' win in Denver a month ago sets up a situation that has been money. Playing against home favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off back-to-back covers as a favorite has resulted in a 23-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home mark, and the road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Chargers are playing free and loose, and they'll be lacking no confidence going into Denver. The Broncos will need an unbelievable game from Manning to win this game because their defense is very susceptible, especially against the pass. Philip River will make enough plays to keeps this one within the number.
01-12-14	San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers	Top	23-10	Win	100	94 h 48 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on 49ers pk Bottom Line: The 49ers have advanced to the NFC Championship each of the past two seasons. They've also won their last two road playoff games, and I expect their postseason dominance to continue. Carolina won the earlier meeting 10-9 in San Francisco, but that wasn't the same 49er team it will see Sunday. The San Francisco offense has become a lot more dynamic since the return of Crabtree, going 6-0 since he made his way back into the lineup. With Crabtree playing at a high level, Carolina won't be able to focus all its attention on Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. It also won't be able to sit on the run. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have a winning mark at home. The Niners are also 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by 13.9 points on average (I got the 49ers at a pk, but they are still favored at a lot of places so this trend applies). Pound San Francisco.
01-11-14	Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7	Top	22-43	Win	100	77 h 13 m	Show
5* Wiseguy AFC Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Patriots -7 Bottom Line: Indianapolis has some really good wins this season, but it hasn't beaten anyone without Reggie Wayne. It is 7-3 since Wayne went down but has benefited from a soft schedule. It has played three good teams on the road during this stretch (Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas City), and it was blown out by the Cardinals and Bengals. The Colts had a miraculous comeback to beat the Chiefs last week, but I haven't been sold on the Chiefs all season. I think Indy runs into a buzz saw here. The Pats are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season at home when laying 7.5 points or less. Playing against road teams off an upset win at home has resulted in a 53-21 ATS record since 1983 provided they are a winning team playing against winning team. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. Pound the Pats.
01-11-14	New Orleans Saints +8 v. Seattle Seahawks		15-23	Push	0	73 h 23 m	Show
4* Major NFC Divisional Playoff SUREFIRE on Saints +8 Bottom Line: Playing road underdogs or pickems that average 24.0 ppg or more and are off a win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 66-32 ATS record since 1983. This system is a strong 11-4 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Saints are too experienced and too good on both sides of the football to get buried in Seattle again. I'll take the points.
01-06-14	Auburn v. Florida State -9	Top	31-34	Loss	-125	10 h 51 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Bowl Game of the Year on Florida State -9 Bottom Line: Playing against any excellent offensive team like Auburn that averages 34 ppg or more has resulted in a 33-13 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are up against an excellent defensive team that allows 16 ppg or less in a non-conference matchup between two teams from BCS conferences. This system shows that good defense beats good offense the large majority of the time. Also, playing against any team like Auburn that allowed 37 points or more last game has resulted in an 85-39 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they're up against a team that's off 2 consecutive wins or 17 points or more. The Seminoles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game, 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a cover, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus winning teams, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Pound FSU.
01-05-14	San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers +3		23-20	Push	0	73 h 32 m	Show
4* Major NFC Wild Card Bailout on Packers +3 Bottom Line: Green Bay is a completely different team with Aaron Rodgers under center, and I expect him to lead the Packers to a win Sunday afternoon. San Francisco won the regular season matchup 34-28. However, when the line is +3 to -3, teams that are looking for revenge for a loss of 7 points or fewer are 28-9 ATS the last 10 seasons, provided they are off a victory against a division foe. This system tightens up to 17-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Green Bay is also a stunning 13-1 ATS in home games in the second half of the schedule versus teams that outscore the opposition by 6.0 points per game or more. The Packers are 8-1 ATS under coach McCarthy versus good defensive teams that give up 17.0 points per game or fewer.
01-05-14	San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals	Top	27-10	Win	100	69 h 57 m	Show
5* Wiseguy AFC Wild Card Game of the Year on Chargers +7 Bottom Line: The Bengals won the regular season meeting 17-10 in San Diego, but they benefited from a bye week prior to that contest. They also caught the San Diego at a good time as it was in a letdown spot following a big road win in Kansas City. San Diego has been playing do-or-die games for a month since then, and it has won them all, including an impressive win in Denver. We've seen it before. Teams that get hot at the right time have been very dangerous in the playoffs, and the Chargers have the look of a dangerous team. They are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in January and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 wild card games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Pound San Diego.
01-04-14	New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles	Top	26-24	Win	100	52 h 3 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFC Wild Card Game of the Year on Saints +3 Bottom Line: Much has been made of New Orleans' issues on the road. The Saints went 3-5 on the road this season but easily could have been better than that. They lost in the closing seconds in New England and Carolina, two teams I have rated higher than the Eagles. Road losses to the Jets and Rams look bad, but both of those teams can play a little defense. The Eagles haven't shown they can stop a team as prolific as New Orleans as they rank 29th in total defense and last against the pass. The Eagles are one of the top offensive teams in the league, but the Saints are 10-2 ATS under Payton versus teams that average 27.0 points per game or more, defeating these teams by 12.0 points on average. Philadelphia is 3-12 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Pound the Saints.
01-04-14	Houston +3 v. Vanderbilt		24-41	Loss	-115	5 h 29 m	Show
4* Major Compass Bowl PUNISHER on Houston +3 Bottom Line: The Houston Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 6-0 ATS in road/neutral field games the last 3 seasons after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Houston took both UCF and Louisville down to the wire on the road, and we found out this bowl season that both of those schools are better than many thought. We've also found out the SEC isn't quite as infallible, and it doesn't help Vandy that it is expected to be without starting QB Austyn Carta-Samuels.
01-03-14	Clemson +3 v. Ohio State	Top	40-35	Win	100	11 h 1 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Orange Bowl BEST BET on Clemson +3 Bottom Line: We saw how Alabama struggled with motivation last night as playing in the Sugar Bowl was no consolation prize for the defending champs. I expect an Ohio State team that was a win away from playing in the national title game to struggle with motivation as well. To make matters worse, the Buckeyes will be without top pass rusher Noah Spence, and they'll likely be without top corner Bradley Roby as well. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Pound Clemson.
01-03-14	Oklahoma State -1 v. Missouri		31-41	Loss	-110	11 h 46 m	Show
4* Major Cotton Bowl PUNISHER on Oklahoma State -1 Bottom Line: Oklahoma State has owned Mizzou of late, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings with a 14.0-point average margin of victory. The Tigers were upset by Auburn in the SEC Championship as they were gashed for 545 yards on the ground. That kind of beating does nothing for the confidence of a football team. Mizzou is on a 2-10 ATS slide when playing away from home following an upset defeat. The Tigers are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. The Cowboys are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss.
01-02-14	Oklahoma +17 v. Alabama		45-31	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
4* Major Sugar Bowl PUNISHER on Oklahoma +17 Bottom Line: This game is a letdown for Alabama while it is a destination for an Oklahoma team that looked like it would miss out on a BCS game. The Crimson Tide are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games and 9-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma was smoked by Texas A&M in last season's bowl matchup, and that loss is playing into this line. The Sooners will be extremely motivated to put a much better foot forward this time around.
01-01-14	Michigan State v. Stanford -6.5		24-20	Loss	-109	27 h 38 m	Show
4* Major Rose Bowl BLOOD BATH on Stanford -6.5 Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off 2 straight conference wins has resulted in a 41-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against an opponent that's off a double-digit road win. This system tightens up to 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Stanford is 7-0 ATS since 1992 when playing away from Palo Alto after averaging 475 or more total yards over their last 3 games. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus Pac-12 opponents.
01-01-14	Iowa +8 v. LSU		14-21	Win	100	21 h 9 m	Show
4* Major Outback Bowl PUNISHER on Iowa +8 Bottom Line: LSU will be forced to lean on its running game with Mettenberger out, and that isn't a favorable situation for the Tigers as they face an Iowa defense that ranks 7th in the country in total defense and 17th against the run. Iowa is 28-9 ATS under coach Ferentz versus good running attacks that average 200.0 rushing yards per game or more. It has won these games by 4.1 points on average. Look for the Iowa defense to keep the Hawkeyes in this game right down to the wire.
01-01-14	Nebraska +9 v. Georgia		24-19	Win	100	21 h 24 m	Show
4* Major Gator Bowl SUREFIRE on Nebraska +9 Bottom Line: The Bulldogs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning record and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. They are also 13-5 ATS outside Lincoln, Nebraska under Pelini when coming off two ATS defeats in their last 3 games. The Huskers were tied 31-31 with Georgia late in last season's Capital One Bowl matchup before letting the game get away. Motivated to avenge that loss, I expect the Huskers to keep this one close.
12-31-13	Duke +13 v. Texas A&M		48-52	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
4* Major Chick-fil-A Bowl Bailout on Duke +13 Bottom Line: Playing in this game is a major disappointment for a Texas A&M team that entered the season with national title hopes. Duke, on the other hand, has had its best season in a long time, and it will be looking to punctuate it. A&M is on a 6-21 ATS slide when playing away from home with a week of rest or more. The Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
12-31-13	Virginia Tech +7.5 v. UCLA	Top	12-42	Loss	-105	4 h 24 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Sun Bowl BEST BET on Virginia Tech +7.5 Bottom Line: The Hokies are a reliable 43-31 ATS when matched up against a team with a win percentage greater than 75% under coach Beamer. They are also 45-32 ATS versus teams that outscore opponents by 10.0 ppg or more under Beamer. Virginia Tech has been to 21 consecutive bowls, and they have been defeated by more than 7 points just one time in their last 11 bowl appearances. Pound the Hokies.
12-30-13	Texas Tech +14.5 v. Arizona State		37-23	Win	100	12 h 14 m	Show
4* Major Holiday Bowl Bailout on Texas Tech +14.5 Bottom Line: The Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 27-11-3 ATS in their last 41 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. Arizona State will have a tough time getting up for this game knowing they blew an opportunity to be Rose Bowl-bound. Texas Tech finished the season poorly so it has every incentive to put forth a good showing here. I'm not concerned about Baker Mayfield transferring as Davis Webb's numbers were better, and he's gotten the large majority of the reps during bowl prep.
12-30-13	Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech	Top	25-17	Win	100	5 h 10 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Pre-New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on Ole Miss -3 Bottom Line: Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing these contest by an average of 10.0 points. Ole Miss is 7-0 ATS under coach Freeze when entering a contest with losses in two of its last three games, winning these contests by 11.2 points on average. The Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Ole Miss has the speed to slow down Georgia Tech's triple-option attack, and it will be extremely prepared for it as defensive coordinator Dave Wommack served in the same role for two seasons under Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. Pound Ole Miss.
12-29-13	Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7	Top	24-22	Win	100	51 h 6 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Year on Cowboys +7 Bottom Line: This line is a gross overreaction to Tony Romo being out. Frankly, I don't miss Romo at all here as he was 0-3 in regular-season finales with the division title at stake. Kyle Orton has had his share of success in the NFL, and he has an excellent opportunity to succeed here against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 30th in the league against the pass. Playing against road favorites that average 27 or more ppg has resulted in a 37-15 ATS record since 1983 if they led in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. Dallas has had Philly's number, winning each of the last three meetings. Pound the Cowboys.
12-29-13	Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +13		34-14	Loss	-115	47 h 60 m	Show
4* Major AFC West DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR on Raiders +13 Bottom Line: December home underdogs or pickems are 94-53 ATS since 1983 provided they enter off 2 or more consecutive ATS losses. Playing against any team after a win by 14 or more points that is up against an opponent off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons.
12-29-13	Baltimore Ravens +6.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals		17-34	Loss	-100	44 h 36 m	Show
4* Major AFC North DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR on Ravens +6.5 Bottom Line: Don't count Baltimore out following last week's ugly loss to New England. The Ravens are 4-0 under coach John Harbaugh following a defeat of 20 points or more. The Ravens are also 7-0 ATS under their current coach after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. They have won these 7 contests by an average of 19.4 points. Lastly, the Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
12-28-13	Michigan +6 v. Kansas State	Top	14-31	Loss	-110	32 h 10 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl BEST BET on Michigan +6 Bottom Line: Michigan underachieved this season given the huge amount of talent it possesses. Even if QB Devin Gardner doesn't go, the Wolverines have more than enough talent remaining to take down the Wildcats. Kansas State hasn't been a good investment this time of year. It is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 bowl games. So much of K-State success depends on winning the turnover battle. In fact, the Wildcats were 1-5 when forcing just 1 turnover this season and 6-0 when forcing 2 or more. They'll have a hard time getting Michigan to cough it up. The Wolverines have had 1 turnover or fewer in each of their last 5 games. Pound Michigan.
12-28-13	Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville		9-36	Loss	-105	29 h 40 m	Show
4* Major Russell Athletic Bowl BLOOD BATH on Miami +3.5 Bottom Line: One thing you don't want to do is count out a team coached by Al Golden. Teams he's headed up are a sweet 34-18 ATS in the underdog role. Since he's been at Miami the Hurricanes have been a nice investment against good offensive teams like Louisville that average 5.9 or more yards per play, going 8-1 ATS versus such opponents and losing to them by only 0.1 points on average. Additionally, the Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win while the Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Bet Miami.
12-27-13	Washington v. BYU +3.5		31-16	Loss	-110	11 h 26 m	Show
4* Major Fight Hunger Bowl Bailout on BYU +3.5 Bottom Line: You don't want to bet against Bronco Mendenhall this time of year. His BYU teams are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in bowl games the last 4 years, winning them by 18.0 points on average. The Cougars are also on an impressive 9-1 ATS run when catching points. Bet BYU.
12-27-13	Syracuse +5 v. Minnesota	Top	21-17	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Texas Bowl BEST BET on Syracuse +5 Bottom Line: This line smells fishy. Minnesota won last season's meeting by 7 points and returns 16 starters from that team yet it is only laying 5 points here? Furthermore, Minnesota defeated Northwestern and Penn State this season while Syracuse lost to both. The books are expecting bettors to look at these two things and jump on the Gophers, but I'm not going to bite. Syracuse can flat out run the football, and that doesn't bode well for a Minnesota defense that was gashed time and time again by the run down the stretch. Minnesota relies heavily on its running game, but the Orange have the better run-stuffing defense. They rank 27th in the nation with 138.4 rushing yards allowed per game. The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Take the points.
12-26-13	Utah State +2 v. Northern Illinois	Top	21-14	Win	100	60 h 56 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Poinsettia Bowl PUNISHER on Utah State +2 Bottom Line: Utah State has quietly been one of the best investments in college football, going 19-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons. It saw a 5-game win streak come to an end with a loss at Fresno State in its last game, but that actually plays in our favor. Consider that the Aggies are 7-0 ATS in road/neutral field games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 18.5 points in these contests. Utah State's success has stemmed from a defense than ranks 7th in the nation in points allowed per game (17.3), 12th in total yards allowed per game (332.2) and 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (107.4). Northern Illinois is very reliant on its running game, which hurts its chances against a very good run-stuffing defense. The Aggies are 8-1 ATS the last 2 seasons versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards/play or more. The Huskies are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games. This bowl game is a major letdown for NIU, which had its sights set on a second-straight BCS bowl. Utah State, on the other hand, is very excited to be here after playing in the Idaho Potato Bowl in their last two bowl trips. Pound Utah State.
12-24-13	Oregon State v. Boise State +3.5		38-23	Loss	-110	28 h 33 m	Show
4* Major Hawaii Bowl BLOOD BATH on Boise State +3.5 Bottom Line: Boise State has been terrific this time of year. The Broncos have won their last four bowl games. They have won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in each of their last 7 bowls, creating a perfect 7-0 bowl trend in our favor. Their last two bowl wins have come against Pac-12 school Washington and Arizona State so I feel very comfortable grabbing the points with the Broncos. Both teams struggle defensively, but Boise State has the edge because it has better balance on offense. Oregon State has no running game, which is significant because the Broncos are on a 9-1 ATS run versus teams that average 3.25 yards or less per carry. Also, Boise State is on a 17-5 ATS run when playing away from the blue turf against poor defensive teams that give up 5.9 yards or more per play. The Broncos are also on an impressive 20-4 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games.
12-23-13	Atlanta Falcons +14.5 v. San Francisco 49ers	Top	24-34	Win	100	10 h 14 m	Show
5* Wiseguy MNF PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Falcons +14.5 Bottom Line: The 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, but Atlanta isn't about to roll over. The Falcons were stunned in last season's NFC title game, blowing a 17-0 lead to the 49ers. That loss haunted this team all off season, and it will motivate Atlanta tonight. Atlanta may not have been impressive in last week's win over Washington, but it is on a 10-2 ATS run in road games after being outgained by 200 or more total yards. Plus, playing against home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the number in 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 56-24 ATS record since 1983 if they are a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. Pound Atlanta.
12-23-13	Ohio v. East Carolina -14.5		20-37	Win	100	4 h 10 m	Show
4* Major Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl BLOOD BATH on East Carolina -14.5 Bottom Line: The Pirates have a sour taste in their mouth after a very disappointing performance at Marshall in their last game. That loss will have them motivated to finish the season strong. The Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss. East Carolina is on a 7-0 ATS run after a loss by 17 or more points and on a 6-0 ATS run off a road loss. Ohio is 0-7 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons, 0-8 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Pirates.
12-22-13	Chicago Bears +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles		11-54	Loss	-103	55 h 27 m	Show
4* Major SNF PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Bears +3 Bottom Line: I'll take the points with the Bears because they likely need to win out to win the NFC North. The Lions have an excellent chance to win out with games against the Giants and Vikings to finish the season and Chicago can't afford to slip up because Detroit owns the tiebreaker. I'm confident the Lions will find a way to beat the Giants, which means the Bears need to take care of business to hold the position of controlling their own destiny. Philly can win the NFC East by beating the Bears if Dallas loses its earlier game against the Redskins. If Dallas beats Washington, the Eagles will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand knowing their playoff fate comes down to a Week 17 showdown at Dallas. If Detroit loses and Green Bay wins, the Bears would need to beat the Packers in Week 17 to reach the playoffs. Regardless if this game can decide anything for either team, the Bears are the play because of their passing game with Cutler or McCown. The Eagles are terrible against the pass, going 0-7 ATS at home the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their pass attempts. Philly is also 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in home games off an upset loss over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. Chicago has the slightly better defense with or without Lance Briggs, who is listed as probable. Bet the Bears.
12-22-13	New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens	Top	41-7	Win	100	52 h 42 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL Game of the Week on Patriots +2.5 Bottom Line: I like New England to win this game. The Patriots have been awesome in bounce-back spots, going 33-5 in their last 38 following a defeat, including 6-0 in their last 6. They are a lethal 15-5 ATS under Belichick following a close loss of 6 points or less. They have responded to win by an average of 12.4 points in this spot. The Patriots lost both meetings to Baltimore last season. One of those cost Tom Brady and company a trip to the Super Bowl so this is a game New England wants desperately. The regular-season loss came by a single point and the Pats have won or lost by fewer than 2.5 points in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Pound New England.
12-22-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 v. St. Louis Rams		13-23	Loss	-110	48 h 55 m	Show
4* Major Early BEST BET on Bucs +5 Bottom Line: St. Louis has struggled to defend the pass, and that will give Tampa Bay an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. The Bucs are on a 13-4 ATS run in road games in the second half of the schedule versus teams allowing an average of 7.0 yards or more per pass. Head coach Jeff Fisher prefers to play close to the vest. Because of his mentality, his teams are only 29-47 ATS lifetime when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
12-21-13	UL-Lafayette +2.5 v. Tulane		24-21	Win	100	30 h 5 m	Show
4* Major New Orleans Bowl PRIME TIME PUNISHER on Louisiana-Lafayette +2.5 Bottom Line: Tulane is favored because it is at home, but that it isn't a good enough reason against the Ragin' Cajuns. Tulane hasn't been to a bowl since 2002 while Lafayette has won this bowl game each of the past two seasons. It's clearly very comfortable in the Superdome. Lafayette smoked Tulane 41-13 last season. I see this one being closer, but the Ragin' Cajuns still have the edge because they average over 120 more yards per game than Tulane. The Ragin' Cajuns have been up to the challenge against good competition outside Cajun Field. They are 7-0 ATS in road/neutral field games versus teams that sport a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
12-21-13	USC v. Fresno State +7	Top	45-20	Loss	-125	24 h 25 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Las Vegas Bowl BEST BET on Fresno State +7 Bottom Line: Oddsmakers adjusted their lines after USC's slow start, and there was some value in the Trojans during a 4-week stretch from late October to mid-November. USC got on a win streak and oddsmakers were forced to adjust their lines again. Now, they're back to setting inflated lines for the Trojans like they normally do. Consider that USC is 0-7 ATS when playing away from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost by an average of 4.6 points in this situation. This is a particularly tough spot for the Trojans because of the coaching change they've had to deal with. Fresno State had hopes of being a BCS buster but won't lay down for mighty USC. Plus, Derek Carr might be the best QB in the country. Take the points.
12-16-13	Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -6.5	Top	18-16	Loss	-108	10 h 14 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions -6.5 Bottom Line: The Detroit offense has been unstoppable at Ford Field where it is averaging 477.0 yards and 31.7 points per game. It should be able to move the football almost at will against a Baltimore defense that has struggled on the road. The Ravens are 1-5 on the road, largely because the defense is allowing 26.8 ppg on the highway. The defense isn't solely to blame as it has had to spend way too much time on the field because of an offense that is among the worst in the NFL. Baltimore's only hope is to come up with some takeaways, but it has been among the least opportunistic teams in the AFC all season. The Detroit offense couldn't do much of anything in Philly last week in harsh conditions. However, the Lions are on a 25-6 ATS run after being held to 4.0 yards or less per play in their previous game. Pound the Lions.
12-15-13	Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3		20-30	Win	100	79 h 49 m	Show
4* Major SNF PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Steelers +3 Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't had near the success on the road where they are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8. The Bengals have also been a poor investment in division play at 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 versus the AFC North. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC North and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 versus the Bengals. Roethlisberger is playing well, completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last 4 games, and he has a great track record versus Cincy (14-6 lifetime). Cincy has defeated the Steelers by more than 3 points just twice in the last 14 meetings. That's a 12-2 trend leaving no doubt we're on the right side. Bet the Steelers.
12-15-13	New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +7		16-27	Win	100	75 h 43 m	Show
4* Major NFL PUBLIC MASSACRE on Rams +7 Bottom Line: New Orleans isn't the same team on the road, period. I know this game will be in a dome, but the Saints struggled to win at the Georgia Dome Nov. 21 and also lost by double-digits as a 13.5-point favorite the last time they visited the Edward Jones Dome. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Rams are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by an average of 6.0 points or more per game over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of the season under Fisher versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Additionally, playing against favorites off a win of 14 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight losses of 10 or more points has resulted in a 26-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons.
12-15-13	Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5		56-31	Loss	-110	74 h 24 m	Show
4* Major AFC West DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR on Raiders +5.5 Bottom Line: Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed by 14 points or more at halftime of their last game has resulted in a 29-10 ATS record since 1983 if they're up against a team that has scored 25 points or more in 3 straight games. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average but have lost by only 2.2 points on average. This system tightens up to 8-2 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC West while the Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC West. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the dog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 matchups.
12-15-13	Buffalo Bills -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars	Top	27-20	Win	100	71 h 18 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Bills -1 Bottom Line: Buffalo defeated Jacksonville 34-18 last season while outgaining the Jaguars 344-236. I fully expect the Bills to dominate again in what is a highly-motivated spot. Buffalo held a closed-door meeting following last week's ugly loss at Tampa Bay. That means this team is serious about finishing the season strong. Buffalo has shown what it is capable of with nice wins over the Panthers, Ravens and Dolphins - teams with winning records. The Bills also nearly pulled off wins against the Patriots and Bengals and outgained the Chiefs 470-210. The Bills have been a tremendous investment when coming off a road loss, going 9-1 ATS in this situation the last 2 seasons. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Playing road teams after the first month of the season if the line is +3 to -3 and they are off a road defeat has resulted in a 70-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Buffalo.
12-14-13	Army +13 v. Navy	Top	7-34	Loss	-104	72 h 48 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF PUNISHER on Army +13 Bottom Line: The Midshipmen have been a poor late-season investment at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 December contests. They have also been a poor play following a bye at 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Army is one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Because of the respect Navy must give to the run, it will be left susceptible to a big play or two through the air. The Midshipmen are 0-6 ATS lifetime under coach Niumatalolo when playing away from home after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game. The Middies are also 3-11 ATS under Niumatalolo after 2 or more consecutive covers. Army is 8-1 ATS under Ellerson after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 10-2 ATS under his watch after allowing 42 points or more last game. Pound Army.
12-12-13	San Diego Chargers +10.5 v. Denver Broncos	Top	27-20	Win	100	30 h 49 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Chargers +10.5 Bottom Line: San Diego played Denver to an 8-point game in the first meeting despite getting off to a terrible start. It was able to come back behind a defense that held the Broncos to a season-low 397 yards and an offense that ranks 4th in the league. In a game San Diego absolutely must have to hang on to its slim postseason hopes, I expect it to give the Broncos a game. Denver is on a 5-15 ATS skid after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games. The Broncos are also on a 9-22 ATS skid when playing against teams with a win percentage of 40-49%. They are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games in the second half of the season versus teams that complete 64% or more of their passes. The road team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run, and the Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in the last 9 matchups in Denver. Pound San Diego.
12-09-13	Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5	Top	28-45	Win	100	10 h 22 m	Show
5* Wiseguy MNF PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Bears +1.5 Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are off 2 or more consecutive losses ATS has resulted in a 93-52 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing all teams (Chicago) when the line is +3 to -3 that average 5.7 yards or more per play has resulted in a 55-28 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they have allowed an average of 400.0 yards or more in their last 3 games. The Cowboys have struggled late in the season, going 11-15 in Romo's December starts. They are also just 6-16 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule over the last 3 seasons, including 0-7 ATS during this stretch when matched up against an excellent offensive team that averages 375 or more yards per game. Dallas is only 9-20 ATS when laying points under Garrett. Pound Chicago.
12-08-13	Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3		13-31	Win	100	79 h 55 m	Show
4* Major SNF PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Saints -3 Bottom Line: Look for New Orleans to bounce-back strong at home where they are on an 18-5 ATS run. The Saints haven't lost consecutive games in a single regular season under coach Sean Payton since 2009, and they are 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 21.4 points in this spot.
12-08-13	Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5		17-19	Loss	-115	75 h 50 m	Show
4* Major Late Afternoon MARQUEE MATCHUP on 49ers -2.5 Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Seahawks following their huge MNF victory over the Saints. Seattle is on a 3-12 ATS slide in road games after a win by 21 or more points, losing by an average of 5.4 points in these games. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
12-08-13	NY Giants v. San Diego Chargers -3		14-37	Win	100	75 h 43 m	Show
4* Major Late Afternoon SUREFIRE on Chargers -3 Bottom Line: The Chargers have dropped 4 of 5 but have been on the road 3 times during this stretch and have played some good football teams (Denver, KC, Cincy). They'll rebound here against a Giants squad that has dropped 4 of 6 on the road. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.
12-08-13	Indianapolis Colts v. Cincinnati Bengals -6	Top	28-42	Win	100	71 h 22 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL Double Digit Blood Bath Game of the Year on Bengals -6 Bottom Line: Cincy rolls at home against the struggling Colts. Indy is not the same team that has wins over the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. It is 3-2 over its last 5 games but could have been 0-5 during this stretch despite playing just 1 team that currently has a winning record. It hasn't been able to protect Luck, and the constant pressure has taken a toll as he has two touchdowns, five interceptions and a 66.7 passer rating over his last four contests. He's been sacked 29 times this season and was dropped a season-worst five times last week. He will face more pressure here against a Cincy team that has recorded 18 sacks over its last five games. The Bengals are 5-0 SU and ATS at home this season, winning these games by an average of 16.4 points. Pound Cincy.
12-07-13	Stanford v. Arizona State -3		38-14	Loss	-105	51 h 26 m	Show
4* Major Pac-12 Championship PUNISHER on Arizona State -3 Bottom Line: I like ASU to avenge an early season loss at Stanford. The Sun Devils are 7-0 at home this season, and teams that are led by coach Todd Graham are 25-11 ATS when playing with revenge. The Sun Devils are also a tremendous 14-5 ATS as chalk under Graham.
12-07-13	Missouri +2.5 v. Auburn	Top	42-59	Loss	-110	49 h 10 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Conference Championship Game of the Year on Mizzou +2.5 Bottom Line: The old saying "it's better to be lucky than good" certainly applies to Auburn, which followed up its "Immaculate Deflection" victory over Georgia with a miracle win over two-time defending national champion Alabama. However, I believe Auburn's luck finally runs out here. Mizzou is one of the best run-stuffing teams in the country. It will dare Auburn to pass the football, and I don't see Auburn being good enough through the air to win this game. Another big key is how well Missouri takes care of the football. It has just 12 turnovers all season and is 8-0 ATS this season after a game where it committed 1 or less turnovers. Pound Mizzou.
12-07-13	Marshall v. Rice +6.5		24-41	Win	100	43 h 27 m	Show
4* Major C-USA Championship BLOOD BATH on Rice +6.5 Bottom Line: Big advantage for Rice playing this game at home where it is 7-0 ATS under coach Bailiff versus good offensive teams that average 31.0 or more points per game. The Owls have defeated these teams by an average of 9.1 points. Rice is also on an 11-0 ATS run at home versus excellent passing teams like Marshall that average 275.0 or more passing yards per game. It has defeated these teams by 7.4 points on average.
12-06-13	Bowling Green +5 v. Northern Illinois	Top	47-27	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
5* Wiseguy FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Bowling Green +5 Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with Bowling Green as it has an excellent chance to win this game outright behind a stop unit that ranks 5th in the country in points allowed per game. Last week, Bowling Green held Buffalo to just 7 points on the road. Dave Clawson's Bowling Green teams have been fueled by such dominant defensive performances, going 9-1 ATS following a game where they held their opponent to 9 points or fewer. This trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Pound BG.
12-05-13	Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5	Top	20-27	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Jaguars +3.5 Bottom Line: I was on the Texans last week as they covered a big spread in New England while giving the Patriots all they wanted and more. That tough loss sets them up for letdown here, playing on the road in a very short week. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a game in which they covered the spread. Houston has consistently played to the level of its competition under Kubiak, going 1-9 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that give up 27 points or more per game. They have lost to these teams by 2.3 points on average. Pound the Jags.
12-05-13	Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5		31-24	Loss	-115	9 h 39 m	Show
4* Major AAC SUREFIRE on Cincy +3.5 Bottom Line: I'll take the points with Cincy at home as it is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings with the loss coming by only 3 points in OT at Louisville last season. That defeat will provide the Bearcats with plenty of motivation on senior night. The Cardinals are on a 0-4 ATS slide versus winning teams. The Bearcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they are on a 34-13 ATS run versus good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 10.0 points or more per game.
12-02-13	New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -4.5	Top	7-34	Win	100	10 h 18 m	Show
5* Wiseguy MNF PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Seahawks -4.5 Bottom Line: Seattle ranks No. 2 in the NFL in both total and scoring defense as well as No. 1 against the pass. With this defense, it has dominated good offensive teams like New Orleans, especially in the latter part of the season. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in the second half of their schedule over the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 24.0 points or more per game. They have crushed these teams by an average of 11.5 points. Seattle is also 6-0 ATS in the second half of its schedule the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 5.65 yards or more per play. It has blasted these teams by an average of 18.4 points. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in the second half of its schedule the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their passes (17.2-pt avg. margin of victory in these games) and 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams averaging 7.0 yards per pass or more (5.8-pt avg. winning margin in these games). The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in home games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Last but not least, Seattle is 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 26.7 points in these games. Pound Seattle.
12-01-13	NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +1.5		24-17	Loss	-110	31 h 1 m	Show
4* Major NFL PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Redskins +1.5 Bottom Line: Tom Coughlin's NFL teams are just 3-12 ATS lifetime following an upset loss at home to a divisional opponent. The Giants are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games, and they've struggled against Washington. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning 3 of these straight up as an underdog.
12-01-13	New England Patriots v. Houston Texans +9	Top	34-31	Win	100	46 h 31 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Texans +9 Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot if I've ever seen one for the Patriots as they hit the road, where they are 0-3 in their last 3, after an improbable comeback win against Denver. Playing against any team with a winning record that is off an upset victory at home has resulted in a 149-78 (65.6%) ATS record the last 30 seasons. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Additionally, playing underdogs of pickems in the second half of the season that are riding a losing streak of 6 games or more has resulted in a 122-71 (63.2%) ATS record the last 30 seasons. This system is 4-0 ATS this season. Pound Houston.
11-30-13	Clemson +3 v. South Carolina	Top	17-31	Loss	-102	9 h 2 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF Rivalry Game of the Year on Clemson +3 Bottom Line: Clemson will want this game just a little bit more as it sets out to snap a 4-game losing streak in the series. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons. It is also 8-0 ATS after 3 consecutive games where it committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Playing road teams when the line is +3 to -3 seven games or more into the season has resulted in a 50-15 ATS mark the last 10 seasons if they are an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 ypc) going against an average run defense (3.5 to 4.3 ypc allowed. This system is 4-0 ATS on the season. Pound the Tigers.
11-30-13	Boston College v. Syracuse +3		31-34	Win	100	5 h 22 m	Show
4* Major ACC Game of the Week on Syracuse +3 Bottom Line: Playing against a road team in a game involving two average defenses that allow 21-28 ppg following a win of 6 points or less has resulted in a 57-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 21-8 ATS the last 3 seasons. Additionally, BC is 2-9 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, losing them by an average of 13.8 points.
11-30-13	Baylor v. TCU +15		41-38	Win	100	5 h 21 m	Show
4* Major Big 12 Game of the Week on TCU +15 Bottom Line: While Baylor has said it still has a lot to play for, I'm not buying that sentiment. This team had its dreams crushed last week at Oklahoma State and now it faces a TCU squad that has had an extra week to prepare. TCU isn't going bowling so it will treat this game as its bowl. TCU is 8-0 ATS in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest under coach Patterson.
11-29-13	Washington State v. Washington -16.5	Top	17-27	Loss	-110	7 h 4 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAF FRIDAY FEAST on Washington -16.5 Bottom Line: I expect Washington to dominate this game with its 15th-ranked rushing attack. Playing home favorites that average 4.8 yards per carry or more against a conference opponent that averages just 3-3.5 ypc has resulted in a 42-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have won by 22.9 points on average. The Huskies had won 3 straight in the series before last season's upset loss with 2 of the wins coming by 17 and 30 points. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Washington.
11-28-13	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5		20-22	Loss	-120	31 h 13 m	Show
4* Major NFL PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Ravens -2.5 Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs or pickems that are off an upset win of 14 points or more has resulted in a 121-71 ATS record the last 30 seasons. Additionally, playing against road teams after the first month of the season when the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win of 10 points or more has resulted in a 48-22 ATS record the last 30 seasons. The Steelers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
11-28-13	Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Dallas Cowboys	Top	24-31	Win	100	27 h 13 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Thanksgiving BEST BET on Raiders +9.5 Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 3.5-10 points has resulted in an impressive 70-35 ATS record the last 30 seasons if they have won 2 of their last 3 games, carry a win percentage of 51%-60% and are playing a team that has a losing record. Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 7 points on average but have won by only 4.5 points on average. The Cowboys are a pathetic 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Pound the Raiders.
11-28-13	Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions -6		10-40	Win	100	23 h 13 m	Show
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Lions -6 Bottom Line: Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss and out for revenge for a loss to the team they're facing has resulted in a 63-28 ATS record the last 30 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.4 points and have won by an average of 12.1. This system is an almost-flawless 11-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.
11-26-13	Western Michigan +36.5 v. Northern Illinois	Top	14-33	Win	100	7 h 47 m	Show
5* Wiseguy MAC MASSACRE on Western Michigan +36.5 Bottom Line: Off last week's big win at Toledo, which clinched a spot in the MAC championship game, Northern Illinois will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand, a meeting with the lowly Western Michigan Broncos. While they have incentive to win impressively as they try to become a BCS buster for a second consecutive season, they'll have a difficult time covering this hefty number because they'll get Western Michigan's best effort tonight. This is the Broncos last game of the season and they have had nine days to prepare for it. They will treat it as their Super Bowl. Western Mich is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. NIU has won 4 straight in the series but none of the wins came by more than 35 points. Pound the Broncos.
11-25-13	San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins +6	Top	27-6	Loss	-110	10 h 27 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +6 Bottom Line: Odds makers are giving a 49ers team that ranks 29th in total offense too much respect on the road. Consider that playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season has resulted in a 65-31 ATS record the last 30 years if they carry a 51-60% win percentage, have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and are playing a losing team. This system is a hot 12-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against road favorites that have covered the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games has resulted in a 60-28 ATS record the last 30 years if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a losing team. Washington is just 3-7 but has played 6 of those on the road where it has struggled. The Redskins are 6-2 in their last 8 regular-season home games, including 2-0 in their last 2. Pound the Redskins.
11-24-13	Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +3		31-34	Win	100	79 h 35 m	Show
4* Major SNF PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Patriots +3 Bottom Line: In the battle between Brady and Manning, I'm not hesitating to go with Brady at home catching points. Brady is 9-4 all-time versus Manning, including 7-2 at home. The Pats are on a 20-8 ATS run as a home underdog. Plus, they are 15-6 ATS versus teams that average 29.0 points or more and 17-8 ATS in the second half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage above 75% under Belichick.
11-24-13	Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -1		11-40	Win	100	74 h 10 m	Show
4* Major Late Afternoon MARQUEE MATCHUP on Cardinals -1 Bottom Line: Indy is extremely lucky to be 2-1 and not 0-3 in its last 3 games as it had to overcome a 24-6 deficit against the Texans and a 17-3 deficit against the Titans. It was smacked 38-8 by the Rams in the other game. Arizona has quality home wins over Detroit and Carolina and is 4-1 at home overall. It should continue its strong play at home with the knowledge Bruce Arians has of Indy's personnel and its tendencies. The defensive side of the ball has been a major issue for the Colts as they are giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Cards are 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. Zona has won by an average of 8.3 points in this spot.
11-24-13	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1		27-11	Loss	-110	71 h 6 m	Show
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Browns -1 Bottom Line: Pittsburgh has won 2 in a row, but both were at home. I expect a different story as it ventures out on the road where it is just 4-13 ATS versus AFC opponents the last 3 seasons, losing these games by 3.6 points on average. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Cleveland. They fell 20-14 in their most recent trip to Cleveland, and I expect them to go down again as the offense struggles against the Browns' stingy 5th-ranked stop unit.
11-24-13	San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs		41-38	Win	100	71 h 5 m	Show
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Chargers +5.5 Bottom Line: The Chiefs are 9-1 but can't be trusted laying this many points against the Chargers. San Diego is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the loss coming by only 3 points. Additionally, KC is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 5.6 points in this spot.
11-24-13	Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins +4.5	Top	20-16	Win	100	71 h 6 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NFL Public Massacre Game of the Month on Dolphins +4.5 Bottom Line: Carolina is riding a 6-game SU and ATS streak with big wins over San Francisco and New England in its last 2. And, it is up against a team that is dealing with off-the-field issues. Naturally, the money is rolling in on the Panthers (85% of the money at the time of this report), and I expect it to continue to come in on them as TV analysts hype Carolina as a Super Bowl contender. Cam Newton and company are hearing about how great they are, which makes it difficult to maintain a chip. Miami is the team with more to prove right now as it has an opportunity to persevere in the face of controversy. The Dolphins did just that last week with a win over San Diego, and they'll be lacking no motivation here as they are tied with the New York Jets for the AFC's second wild-card spot. I like Miami in this spot regardless, but it bolsters its chances of an outright win with Carolina defensive end Charles Johnson expected to miss the game. He is tied for ninth in the league with 8 1/2 sacks. No team has won by more than a field goal in Miami in their last 7 tries. Plus, the Phins are 6-0 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 13.2 points in this spot. Pound Miami.

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