Sports Picks & Predictions

5* WISEGUY CFB CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Ohio State +7

Bottom Line: I backed Ohio State as a 10-point dog against Alabama and watched the Buckeyes win outright. The reasoning was simple - Urban Meyer is perhaps the best coach in college football. He had his team ready for the Crimson Tide, and I expect him to have them ready for Oregon. Teams headed up by Meyer are 21-5 ATS all-time in the underdog role. His teams are also 12-1 ATS all-time off an upset victory. Pound Ohio State.

5* WISEGUY DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Broncos -7

Bottom Line: Indy is 0-6 ATS in road games played in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75% over the last 3 seasons, and it has lost these games by an average of 24.9 points. Denver is on a 21-10 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a 16-3 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. Pound the Broncos.

4* MAJOR NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *SUREFIRE* on Cowboys +6

Bottom Line: Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on grass and 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games when playing with 6 days of rest or less. The Cowboys are 20-9 ATS as an underdog under coach Garrett, including 9-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

5* WISEGUY NFC PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR on Seahawks -10.5

Bottom Line: The Seahawks enter the playoffs on a 6-game win streak, which is significant because they are 6-0 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins under coach Carroll.  Seattle is 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more. It is also 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after averaging 6.0 yards per play or more in each of its last 2 games. Pound Seattle.

4* MAJOR AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *SUREFIRE* on Ravens +7

Bottom Line: Baltimore has been money in the postseason. It's 6-0 ATS in its last 6 playoff games and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road playoff games. The road team has been the play in this matchup as it is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England. Additionally, Baltimore is 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

4* MAJOR GODADDY BOWL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Toledo -3.5

Bottom Line: Arkansas State looked unstoppable on the ground last game when it racked up 469 rushing yards against New Mexico State. It won't be able to run at will against a Toledo defense that ranks 17th in the country against the run with 120.5 ypg allowed. The Red Wolves are on a 0-11 ATS slide following a game where they gained 300 or more rushing yards and have lost by an average of 10.1 points in these games. Bet Toledo.

5* WISEGUY WILD CARD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: The Bengals lost 27-0 in Indianapolis in October, but that won't keep me from pounding them given the strong history in their favor. Playing road teams that check in off a road loss and are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 76-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 9 points under coach Lewis. They have won in this spot by an average of 5.8 points. This Cincy team has failed to make it out of the wild card round each of the past 3 seasons, and that provides added motivation. Pound the Bengals.

5* WISEGUY NFL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Ravens +4

Bottom Line: The Ravens are showing some nice value catching better than a field goal. Prior to each team winning impressively in this season's two regular-season meetings, we had seen 5 straight and 9 of 11 matchups in the series decided by 3 points or less. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 wild card games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road playoff games. Pound Baltimore.

5* WISEGUY BIRMINGHAM BOWL *BEST BET* on East Carolina +7

Bottom Line: ECU concluded the regular season with a disappointing 2-point loss to UCF, but it is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons following defeat. The Pirates are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus SEC foes. ECU has an explosive offense that put up huge numbers against several power conference schools. I think 7 points is too many for the books to be giving to this explosive offensive team, especially considering how anemic Florida has been offensively. The Gators left it all out on the field in their last game against in-state rival FSU only to come up short. They managed to cover the spread but are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a cover. The Florida program is in disarray with Muschamp gone and interim D.J. Durkin soon to follow. I think the Florida players just want to forget this season and move on. Pound the Pirates.

5* WISEGUY TAXSLAYER BOWL *BEST BET* on Iowa +3.5

Bottom Line: The Hawkeyes have been an outstanding investment this time of year at 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. I'm not hesitating to take the points as I believe the wrong team is favored. This line has a lot to do with the respect the public gives the SEC, but we have seen in these bowls that the SEC isn't as strong as in years past, and this is a middle of the road team from the weaker division. The Volunteers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games versus teams with a winning record. Pound Iowa.

4* MAJOR SUGAR BOWL BAILOUT on Ohio State +10

Bottom Line: Urban Meyer is one of the best in the business, and I fully expect him to have his Buckeyes ready to play. His teams are 20-5 ATS all-time in the underdog role and 23-6 ATS all-time when getting 2 weeks of preparation time or more.

4* MAJOR ROSE BOWL *BLOOD BATH* on Oregon -8

Bottom Line: Florida State is undefeated by the skin of its teeth, but it finally meets its match here. Oregon is 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more in its last game under coach Helfrich, 6-0 ATS after a win of 35 points or more under Helfrich and 7-0 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 125 yards or more under their current coach. Florida State has been down early numerous times this season but has been able to claw its way back. I don't see it being able to claw its way back against an explosive Oregon team.

5* WISEGUY BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota +5

Bottom Line: It's a major letdown for Missouri to be playing an unranked opponent in its bowl game after a disappointing performance against Alabama in the SEC Championship. That game against Alabama mattered way more to the Tigers than this one does. Minnesota, on the other hand, sees this game as a great opportunity, and it has been extremely competitive against good teams in recent seasons, going 10-2 ATS versus teams with a winning record the last 2 seasons, including 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus such teams. Pound the Gophers.

5* WISEGUY PEACH BOWL *BEST BET* on Ole Miss +3.5

Bottom Line: The Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games while the Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Ole Miss is 6-0 ATS versus excellent passing teams that average 275 passing YPG or more under coach Freeze and has defeated these teams by an average of 8.0 points. Pound Ole Miss.

5* WISEGUY MUSIC CITY BOWL *BEST BET* on Notre Dame +9

Bottom Line: We are getting Notre Dame at a great number because of its poor finish. Having had a month to regroup, I fully expect the Fighting Irish to give LSU a game. Notre Dame is on a 23-10 ATS run in road/neutral field game against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%, and it has won these games by an average of 3.9 points. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Pound the Fighting Irish.

5* WISEGUY LIBERTY BOWL *BEST BET* on Texas A&M +2.5

Bottom Line: West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. It is also 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Aggies.

4* MAJOR NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Packers -7

Bottom Line: The Packers do an exceptional job of taking care of the football, and that spells doom for Detroit, which is 0-11 ATS since 1992 in games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 1 or fewer turnovers per game. It has lost these games by 18.2 points on average. The Lions are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in home games versus mistake prone teams that average 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. It is 6-0 ATS this season after playing its last game on the road. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

5* WISEGUY NFL GAME OF THE WEEK on Panthers +3

Bottom Line: I like the Panthers catching a field goal given how successful they've been in the series of late. They are 3-1 in the last 4 meetings with the loss coming by only 2 points. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with neither loss during this stretch coming by more than 2 points. The Panthers are starting to resemble the team that went 12-4 last season, holding their last 3 foes to 17 points or fewer. Carolina is 58-25 ATS all-time versus teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 56-36 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Falcons are 12-25 ATS since 1992 in home games following a double-digit victory. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound the Panthers.

4* MAJOR NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Bears +7

Bottom Line: Odds makers have missed the mark. The Bears are 8-2 in their last 10 against the Vikings and haven't lost by more than 7 points during this stretch. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that check in off a road defeat has resulted in a 28-8 ATS record since 1983, provided they have a win percentage of 40-49% and are playing a team with a win rate of 25-40%. This rare system is 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* MAJOR Holiday Bowl *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nebraska +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to the firing of Bo Pelini. Nebraska is 25-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games since 1992. USC is 6-17 ATS after any win over the last 3 seasons, 2-11 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons and 1-8 ATS in road/neutral field games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY PRE-NEW YEAR's BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +3

Bottom Line: Penn State has the edge on the sidelines with James Franklin, and it also has the edge on the field with a stifling defense that ranks No. 1 in the nation against the run. The Nittany Lions match up with Boston College extremely well since the Eagles depend on their run game to move the football. It will be nothing doing on the ground against this stout Penn State defense. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 December games. Penn State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. Pound Penn State.

4* MAJOR Military Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +3

Bottom Line: Playing on any team 7 games or more into the season that averages 3.5 to 4.3 yards per carry (VA Tech) and is up against a team that allows 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry (Cincy) has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided the play on side allowed 75 rushing yards or less last game. Additionally, the Hokies are 12-3 ATS in road/neutral field battles following a close win of 7 points or less over a conference opponent under coach Beamer.

5* WISEGUY St. Petersburg Bowl *BEST BET* on NC State +3

Bottom Line: The Wolfpack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. They are also on an impressive 22-10 ATS run in road/neutral field venues when getting more than the typical week or preparation time. UCF has struggled when playing away from its home turf. The Knights have won by more than 3 points in just 2 of 6 road/neutral field games this season. This included a really bad loss at UConn. Pound NC State.

5* WISEGUY BAHAMAS BOWL *BEST BET* on Central Michigan +4

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to Western Kentucky's win over Marshall. I'm not sold on the Hilltoppers. Defense wins championships, and Western Kentucky is arguably the worst defensive team in the country. Central Mich is stout defensively, ranking 16th in the land in total defense with 331.3 ypg allowed. CMU is on a 21-8 ATS run versus excellent passing teams like WKU that average 275 ypg or more through the air. The Chippewas are on an 11-3 ATS run versus poor run defenses that allow 4.75 yards per carry or more. The Chippewas are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning record. The Chipps should cover this number behind solid defensively play and a strong running game. Pound CMU.

4* MAJOR POINSETTIA BOWL *PUNISHER* on Navy +3

Bottom Line: Navy is a nasty 71-35 ATS in road games since 1992, including 10-2 ATS during this stretch when catching 3 points or less. SDSU is 1-10 ATS since 1992 after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

5* WISEGUY Boca Raton Bowl *BEST BET* on Marshall -9

Bottom Line: The Huskies are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 December contests, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus C-USA schools. All of these trends don't bode well for the Huskies, but here's the clincher: NIU is 0-7 ATS since 1992 in road/neutral field contests versus opponents that carry an average margin of victory of 17 PPG or more on the season. Pound the Thundering Herd.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: Cincy has been awesome at home in recent years so the fact it has lost its last 2 home games in blowout fashion isn't sitting well. The Bengals also don't like the fact they've been blown out twice in primetime. I expect them to be the more motivated team tonight as a result. The Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday Night Football games. Pound Cincy.

4* MAJOR Miami Beach Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on BYU +2

Bottom Line: BYU has better talent and coach Bronco Mendenhall has more experience than his counterpart preparing his team for big games. This is the 10th consecutive bowl appearance for the Cougars while Memphis is playing in its first bowl since 2008. BYU has won 6 of its last 8 bowl games and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Cougars are 18-7 ATS under coach Mendenhall when playing against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Bet BYU.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders +6

Bottom Line: Playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 33-13 (72%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 games has resulted in an 83-38 (69%) ATS record the last 31 seasons, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a losing team in the 2nd half of the season. Pound the Raiders.

5* WISEGUY DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE WEEK on Dolphins -6.5

Bottom Line: The Vikings have covered the number in each of their last 4 but 3 of those were at home. They are just 2-5 on the road this season and in a historically bad spot. Consider that they are 6-16 ATS in road games after covering the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games the last 22 seasons. After getting taken out being the woodshed the past 2 weeks, I expect Miami to respond at home. Pound the Dolphins.

4* MAJOR New Mexico Bowl *BEST BET* on Utah State -10

Bottom Line: UTEP must be able to run the football to be successful, but it will have a difficult time running the ball on a Utah State defense that ranks 26th in the nation against the run. With extra time to prepare for UTEP's running game, I expect the Aggies to have success slowing it down. I also expect the Aggies to be highly motivated after getting embarrassed at Boise State last game. Utah State is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when getting a bye week's worth of time or more to prepare for an opponent. It is also on a 7-0 ATS run in road/neutral field games following any loss. UTEP is 0-7 ATS against teams with a winning record under coach Kugler and has lost to these teams by 30 PPG on average.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: New Orleans has way more to play for as it is still in the playoff hunt. Plus, I'm not hesitating to side with Drew Brees over Jay Cutler. Both teams have struggled defensively, but New Orleans has the edge with the far superior offense. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus strong offensive teams that average 350 ypg or more. They have lost these games by an average of 13.2 points. They are also 0-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by 18.0 points on average. Pound the Saints.

4* MAJOR NFC WEST *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +10

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to San Francisco's bad loss to the Raiders. The 49ers clearly suffered a letdown in the aftermath of losing a big game with Seattle. This is a proud 49ers team. Harbaugh is proud. Kaepernick is proud. The list goes on and on. This very well could be the end of the Harbaugh era and the end of the 49ers' run of NFC championship games, but they won't go down without a fight and would like nothing more than to keep Seattle from winning the division. Playing road teams off a road loss that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 73-35 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Playing underdogs or pickems in the 2nd half of the season that are off an upset loss on the road, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60%, has resulted in a 25-6 ATS record since 1983. Lastly, the 49ers are 9-0 ATS under Harbaugh when checking in with 2 losses in a 3-game game. They have won these 9 by an average of 13.6 points.

5* WISEGUY NFL DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -10

Bottom Line: The Chiefs will be out for some serious revenge against an Oakland team that defeated them 24-20 Nov. 20. That loss started a 3-game skid for the Chiefs that has them on the brink of falling out of the AFC playoff hunt. I expect them to take their frustrations out all over an inferior opponent in Arrowhead Sunday. Playing home favorites of 3.5-10 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are also coming off an upset loss has resulted in a 65-28 (70%) ATS record since 1983. Recently, this system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound the Chiefs.

5* WISEGUY NFL UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK on Bills +5.5

Bottom Line: Buffalo has an excellent chance of pulling off this upset. Green Bay is 3-3 on the road and would have covered this number in just 1 road game this season. The Packers have never won in Buffalo where they are 0-5. I like having the veteran Kyle Orton in this spot. He knows a thing of two about going toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers and coming out on top. While with Kansas City in 2011, he ended Green Bay's then 19-game win streak. This is also a tough situational spot for Green Bay, hitting the road after playing the Monday night game. The Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday nighter. Pound the Bills.

4* MAJOR CFB RIVALRY *BLOOD BATH* on Army +15

Bottom Line: This is a big rivalry game for both teams, but I give Army a slight motivational edge. Navy has a bowl game to look forward to while Army does not. The Black Knights will be treating this as their bowl game. Army should also benefit from extra preparation time. It has had 3 weeks to gear up for this contest, 6 more days than Navy. Navy has won 12 straight in the series, and that's not sitting well with the Black Knights. Army appeared close to breaking through, playing the Midshipmen to 6-point game in 2011 and a 4-point game in 2012 before getting embarrassed 34-7 last season. Army returns 16 starters that remember how badly that loss hurt. The Black Knights may come up short, but should give Navy a game here. The Midshipmen are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus teams with a losing record.

5* WISEGUY Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals +4.5

Bottom Line: The Cardinals found a way to get it done in Kansas City Sunday despite playing less than their best on both sides of the football. That performance against an AFC foe actually bodes well for us as the Cards are 7-0 ATS off a non-conference game under Arians and 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game under Arians. The Rams will be out for revenge for last month's 31-14 loss in Arizona, but they are 11-30 ATS since 1992 when looking for same-season revenge. Plus, Fisher's squads are just 15-33 ATS all-time when laying 3.5 to 7.0 at home. Playing against home favorites off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Arizona.

5* WISEGUY MNF *BEST BET* on Falcons +14

Bottom Line: Green Bay is being overvalued at home against an Atlanta team that has turned the corner. The Falcons have played good football over their last five games, going 3-2 during this stretch with the 2 losses coming by a total of 3 points to very good Detroit and Cleveland teams. Atlanta's improvement has come from the defensive side of the football as it has allowed an average of only 19.5 points over its last four games. The Falcons are 8-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. They have won by an average of 7.1 points in these games. Playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points in the 2nd half of the season that have beaten the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games has resulted in an 11-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by just 8.8 points on average. Lastly, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Pound Atlanta.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFC *BEST BET* on Redskins +2.5

Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that have covered the spread in 3 consecutive games or more, provided they have a win percentage of 40% to 49% and are playing a losing team, has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record over the last 31 years. Washington is a better team than its record looks and has been at its best this season with McCoy getting the snaps. Washington is the superior team statistically on both sides of the football, ranking 11th in both total offense and defense while the Rams rank 25th in total offense and 14th in total defense. In the games St. Louis has won, it has been aided by a plus-7 turnover margin. Washington has a good job of taking care of the football with McCoy in the game. He has just a 1.1 interception percentage. The Rams are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more. They have lost to these teams by an average of 19.6 points.

4* MAJOR AFC NORTH *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Steelers +3.5

Bottom Line: After 2 losses in 3 games, the Steelers need this game. Recent history says they'll respond as they are 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus winning teams and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 11-2 in its last 13 trips to Cincinnati. In a big game, I'm going with Big Ben over Dalton. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY AFC NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR on Browns +4

Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road blowout loss of at least 14 points has resulted in a 78-42 against the spread record over the last 31 years. The Browns are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race, and I'm expecting Brian Hoyer to rise to the occasion and silence all the Johnny Manziel talk. The Colts have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, and Hoyer has been able to take advantage against such teams going 14-5-1 ATS in his last 20 games versus teams that give up 6.1-8.1 passing yards per attempt. Additionally, Hoyer is on a 9-0 ATS run in games when the total of 45.5-52.5 and has led his teams to victories by an average of 15.9 points in these games. Pound Cleveland.

5* WISEGUY SEC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Missouri +14.5

Bottom Line: Alabama is getting a little too much respect in this neutral field battle. The Crimson Tide have played 5 neutral field/road games this season and didn't win any of them by more than 14 points. Mizzou has been an awesome investment at 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. They are also 9-0 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. Bama is 0-6 ATS after playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored under Saban. Saban's teams are 0-7 ATS all-time after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Pound Mizzou.

4* MAJOR BEDLAM *BLOOD BATH* on Oklahoma State +21

Bottom Line: Besides the fact this is a huge rivalry game, the Cowboys can become bowl eligible with a win. That provides added incentive here. It also helps that they've had an extra week to prepare. The series has been tight of late with 3 of the last 4 games being decided by 9 points or less. The one that wasn't was a 44-10 Oklahoma State victory. Playing against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing defense that allows 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game, has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

4* MAJOR PAC-12 *PUNISHER* on Oregon -13

Bottom Line: The Ducks are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 games with each of their last 6 wins coming by at least 18 points. They have just 1 blemish on their record - Arizona - and I expect them to avenge that loss in impressive fashion. The Ducks are 6-0 ATS after leading their previous game by 24 points or more at the half under coach Helfrich. They have won by an average of 32.8 points in this situation. Oregon is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral field battles after 3 straight covers as a favorite of 7 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It's won by an average of 27.8 points in this situation. Oregon is one runaway freight train I'm not about to step in front of.

5* WISEGUY MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +7

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to Bowling Green losing its last 2. The Falcons had nothing to play in either game as they had already wrapped up the division. Now, they have everything to play for as they have an opportunity to make it back-to-back MAC titles. This is Northern Illinois' 5th straight MAC Championship game, but it has been far from dominant in the previous 4, going 2-2 with the largest margin of victory at the end of regulation being 3 points (won by 7 in OT in the other). Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in road/neutral field venues versus conference foes. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss to a conference foe as a favorite of 10 or more, provided the game is being played after the first month of the season, has resulted in a 55-25 ATS record since 1992. Pound the Falcons.

4* MAJOR TNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cowboys -3.5

Bottom Line: Chicago is 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons versus good ball-control teams that average 32 minutes of possession time or more per game. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus good offensive teams that average 350 yards per game or more. They are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt. Chicago is 0-8 SU and ATS in games Jay Cutler plays when the total is 48-55. It has lost these games by an average of 20.1 points. The Bears are also 0-8 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games under coach Trestman, losing these contests by an average of 15.5 points.

5* WISEGUY CFB *BEST BET* on ECU -6.5

Bottom Line: Playing on excellent running teams that average 4.8 yards per rush or more when they are taking on a poor running team that averages 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, provided it is a conference matchup, has resulted in a 95-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is 21-3 ATS this season, and I'm going to ride it. Pound the Pirates.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jets +7

Bottom Line: The Jets were brutally embarrassed by the Bills last Monday, which is all the more reason to back them here. Playing teams off a loss of 28 points or more that have been outscored by an average of 4.0 ppg or more on the season has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Jets were held to 3 points last Monday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after being held to less than 15 points. Miami put up 36 in Denver but is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points. The Dolphins are 9-21-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Jets.

4* MAJOR *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Packers -3

Bottom Line: The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are 9-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750 since 1992 and have defeated these teams by an average of 14.0 points. The Patriots are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games on grass while the Packers are 6-0 ATS on grass this season.

4* MAJOR *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Falcons +1.5

Bottom Line: Arizona's confidence took a hit with last week's crushing defeat in Seattle. Now it has to make the cross-country trip to face an Atlanta team that has been really good at home since Matt Ryan starting manning the controls. With Stanton starting the last 2 games, the Arizona offense has managed only 17 points. Playing against teams with a win percentage of .750 or higher that have covered 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 144-95 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* MAJOR *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Saints +5

Bottom Line: Despite a 4-7 record and 3 consecutive SU and ATS losses at home, the Saints will be fully invested in this contest. They are still tied for 1st in the NFC South so they have no reason to hang their head. The Saints have been extremely competitive on the road this season. They are 1-4 away from home but 3 of the losses have come by 3 points or less. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a losing record. New Orleans is 21-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24.0 ppg or more under Sean Payton. It has defeated these teams by an average of 8.0 points.

4* MAJOR EARLY *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Chargers +7

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to San Diego's 0-6 ATS slide coupled with Baltimore's back-to-back ATS wins. The fact of the matter is, San Diego can move into a tie for 1st in the AFC West with a win and Denver loss so it has plenty to play for. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record. They are also on an impressive 57-37 ATS run as a road dog of 7 points or less since 1992.

5* WISEGUY NFL LOOK-AHEAD GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucs +4

Bottom Line: This is a prime look-ahead spot for Cincy. The Bengals have a big showdown with division rival Pittsburgh next week, which makes it extremely tough for them to get up for the lowly Bucs here. Tampa Bay hasn't quit competing. It has outgained each of its last 4 opponents, which is a great sign, and 3 of those games were played on the road. The Bucs are 0-5 at home this season so they will be leaving it all on the field in hopes of removing the goose egg. Fortunately for them, they catch the Bengals at the perfect time. Home underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of .250 or less are 121-65 ATS since 1983, provided they have failed to cover 2 out of their last 3 games and are up against a winning team. Pound the Bucs.

4* MAJOR APPLE CUP *PUNISHER* on Washington State +3.5

Bottom Line: Home field has been huge in this series. Excluding a neutral field battle in 2011, the home team has won or lost by 3 points or less in 9 of the last 12 meetings. The home side has won 4 of the last 5. Additionally, Washington is 0-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. It has lost by an average of 13.0 points in this spot.

4* MAJOR C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB -4

Bottom Line: UAB enters this contest full of confidence after given Marshall all it wanted. It needs a win here to become bowl eligible, and it will be hungry as it looks to avenge last season's ugly 62-27 home loss to So. Miss. The Golden Eagles are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 6-15 ATS in their last 21 conference games, 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 versus a team with a losing record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

4* MAJOR EGG BOWL *BLOOD BATH* on Ole Miss +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the home team, which has been the play in this series. The home team is 13-2 in the last 15 meetings, including 9-1 in the last 10. The season hasn't finished the way Ole Miss had hoped, but it has a chance to end on a high note with a win over its biggest rival. I like the Rebels to get it done.

5* WISEGUY AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +7

Bottom Line: Cincy has won 5 in a row SU and ATS and is being overvalued on the road as a result. Just 1 win during this stretch came against a quality opponent and it was at home. Now the Bearcats are on the road and up against one of the best defenses they've seen all season. What has Temple done against good offensive teams like Cincinnati the last 2 seasons? It's gone 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 31 ppg or more while holding them to just 26 ppg on average. It held ECU to just 10 points on this field and Memphis to 16. Pound Temple.

5* Wiseguy CFB *BLACK FRIDAY FEAST* on UMass +3

Bottom Line: UMass has played outstanding football this season and has been in every game but 3. The Minutemen had strung together 6 consecutive quality performances before laying an egg at Akron last game, and they will be looking to bounce back strong on Senior Day. They were kicked 32-3 at Buffalo last season so revenge is in order as well. The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. Take the points.

4* MAJOR NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 49ers pk

Bottom Line: Riding high off a big 19-3 win over the first place Cardinals, expect a letdown from Seattle as it hits the road on a short week. This game is all about payback for the 49ers, who will be out to avenge last season's tough-to-swallow loss in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks are on a 1-9 ATS slide in road games following a dominant defensive performance where they allowed 6 points or less. They are 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a win of more than 14 points. The 49ers are 26-9-3 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS loss, and the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Lastly, the 49ers are 17-2 SU and 15-3-1 ATS when Kaepernick is under center in games when the line is -4.5 to +2.5. Bet San Francisco.

5* WISEGUY Thanksgiving *BEST BET* on Lions -7

Bottom Line: The Lions lost 34-9 in New England Sunday, but they are an impressive 29-14 ATS after a loss of 21 points or more since 1992. The Bears have responded with back-to-back wins following a 3-game skid, but they are 0-7 ATS all-time under Trestman after winning 2 times in a 3-game span. They have lost by an average of 15.3 points in these 7 contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit. Pound the Lions.

4* MAJOR CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio -3

Bottom Line: Ohio needs a win tonight to become bowl eligible, and that's enough of a motivator for it to get the job done. Under coach Solich, the Bobcats are 19-9 ATS versus teams with a win percentage of 25% or lower, and they have defeated these opponents by an average of 14.3 points. The Redhawks are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 7.0 ppg or more in the first half - after a game where they combined with an opponent for 60 points or more - has resulted in a 58-28 ATS record since 1992.

5* WISEGUY MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -2.5

Bottom Line: New Orleans got nothing out of its running game last week, and the result wasn't good. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they tend to be at their best offensively when they have a little more balance than they did against the Bengals. They rushed for just 75 yards in that game and weren't at all satisfied with the result. However, the Saints are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 rushing yards or less. They have bounce back to win by an average of 19.5 points in this spot. The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound New Orleans.

5* WISEGUY SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +3.5

Bottom Line: This is a problematic spot for Dallas, which is playing a true road game for the first time in over a month and is no doubt already thinking about a Thanksgiving showdown with the Eagles. The Cowboys have had a week off following their overseas trip, and while a bye week can be a good thing this time of year, it can also be a bad thing. I think it's the latter in this case because the Cowboys aren't chomping at the bit to face a team they defeated by double digits Oct. 19. I really think the Giants will treat this game, and their season finale against Philadelphia, like the Super Bowl. The Giants are an impressive 29-17 ATS when out for revenge under coach Coughlin. They are also 16-7 ATS under their coach when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. Dallas is a weak 19-32 ATS when laying points with Romo under center. Playing against road favorites off a win by more than 10 points that allow 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team that gives up 23-27 ppg. Pound the G-Men.

4* MAJOR NFC NON-DIVISION *SUREFIRE* on Redskins +10

Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 74-37 ATS record since 1983, provided they are playing a losing team and carry a win percentage of .510 to .600. Washington is a much better football team than it showed last week, and it will be incredibly motivated by that pathetic performance. The 49ers really haven't been a blowout threat this season with just 2 wins by double digits. They have won by more than 10 points just 1 time in their last 9 games.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFL LATE AFTERNOON *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Seahawks -6.5

Bottom Line: Look for Seattle's 12th Man to come up big as the Seahawks end Arizona's 6-game win streak. In many ways, this is a must-win game for Seattle so it will be extremely focused. The Seahawks take pride in their home field advantage so last season's home loss to Arizona can't be sitting well. Stanton has performed well, but the Cardinals aren't the same team without Carson Palmer. It catches up with them here. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less and have won these games 18.1 points on average.

4* MAJOR NFC NORTH *SUREFIRE* on Vikings +10

Bottom Line: Green Bay hasn't been the same force on the road where it is 2-3 and could easily be 1-4. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in home games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are 11-1 ATS in home games since 1992 versus teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 ppg or more on the season.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFL EARLY *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Lions +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to New England's back-to-back-to-back blowout wins over the Bears, Broncos and Colts. The Lions are the best defensive team in the NFL, and I expect their defense to keep them in this game. Playing underdogs or pickems that average 18-23 ppg and are up against a team that averages 27 ppg or more, provided the play on team was held to 9 points or less last game, has resulted in a 38-15 ATS record since 1983. These teams have been underdogs of 7.4 points on average but have lost by just 3.4 points on average.

4* MAJOR SATURDAY NIGHT *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on UConn +10

Bottom Line: The Huskies shocked Central Florida as an 8-point dog Nov. 1 and are in good position to stun the Bearcats. UConn is 8-0 ATS lifetime in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. It has won by an average of 8.0 points in this spot.

5* WISEGUY LETDOWN GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia +6

Bottom Line: I see Miami suffering a letdown after last week's crushing defeat to Florida State. Not only did Miami blow a 16-0 lead and an opportunity to knock off the undefeated defending national champs, it lost any chance of an ACC Coastal division title. Playing against road favorites that gave up 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game has resulted in a 50-19 ATS record since 1992 if they average 440 ypg or more on the season and are up against a team that allows 330-390 ypg. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 4-1 ATS this season. Pound Virginia.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (ESPN) on Nebraska -10

Bottom Line: Playing on teams like Nebraska that average 4.9 yards per rush or more and are matched up against a team that allows 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush, provided the play on team gave up 275 rushing yards or more last game, has resulted in a 47-20 ATS record since 1992. The Huskers are 6-0 at home this season and 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus Minnesota. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a defeat greater than 20 points.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois +6.5

Bottom Line: Penn State is off a 30-13 home win over Temple where it outgained the Owls by 193 yards on the ground. However, the Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 15.5 points in these games. They are also 0-6 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 12.5 points in these games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Fighting Illini.

5* WISEGUY CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Jose State +14.5

Bottom Line: Utah State is getting a little too much respect from odds makers tonight. SJSU hasn't lost by more than 14 points in any of its 6 conference games this season. That's a 6-0 trend I can get behind. The Spartans are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound SJSU.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Following a big upset victory over the defending Super Bowl champs, the Chiefs are in a letdown situation, especially with the tendency for them to look ahead to next week's showdown with Denver. Playing against road teams that are coming off an upset victory on their home field, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 106-53 ATS record since 1983. Zooming in, playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home that has a winning record on the season has resulted in a 31-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Raiders.

4* MAJOR ACC *SUREFIRE* on North Carolina +6

Bottom Line: Duke is getting a little too much respect from odds makers against a motivated North Carolina squad that still needs a win to become bowl eligible. I'll gladly take the points in this rivalry game considering the Tar Heels have won or lost by fewer than 6 points in 22 of the last 23 meetings, including 10 straight.

4* MAJOR BIG 12 *BLOOD BATH* on West Virginia -2

Bottom Line: In a matchup between teams that average 34.0 ppg or more, playing against road underdogs that are off a game where 60 total points or more were scored has resulted in a 53-26 ATS record since 1992. West Virginia is legit. You don't hang with Alabama, beat Baylor and lose to TCU by a single point if you're not. The Mountaineers are not happy about losing their last two, and they're not happy about last season's 35-12 loss to Kansas State. Look for the Mountaineers to bounce back strong on Senior Night.

4* MAJOR MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Toledo -6.5

Bottom Line: Toledo will be the hungrier team tonight. This is the last home game for the seniors, and the Rockets still have a shot at the MAC West title. Bowling Green has clinched the MAC East so it doesn't have nearly the same level of motivation. Additionally, Toledo has had BG's number. The Rockets have won the last 4 in the series with the 2 home wins during this span coming by double digits. The Falcons are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Toledo.

5* Wiseguy MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio +3

Bottom Line: Playing against road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more that are matched up with a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record over the last 5 seasons if the team we are fading allowed an average of 6.25 yards per play or more last game. The Bobcats are on a perfect 7-0 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750. Pound Ohio.

4* Major MAC *SUREFIRE* on Akron -7

Bottom Line: Playing home teams 7 games or more into the season that average 3.5 to 4.3 yards per rush and are matched up with a team that averages 3.0 to 3.5 yards per rush has resulted in a 31-8 ATS record since 1992, provided the play on team has been held to 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The home teams have been favored by 7.1 points on average in this situation and have won by an average of 15.9 points. This system has produced a perfect 8-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Titans +7

Bottom Line: Playing against a team off a loss against the spread that has a win percentage of 51% to 60% and is matched up against a team with win percentage of 25% or worse has resulted in a 73-37 ATS record since 1983. The Steelers laid an egg in New York last week, and we were all over it as that performance was nothing new. They are only 3-6 in their last 9 contests in the second half of their schedule versus teams with a win percentage below .300. The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Tennessee, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

4* Major NFC North *SUREFIRE* on Bears -2.5

Bottom Line: Look for the Bears to show up after being brutally embarrassed on national TV last Sunday night. Chicago is 13-4 ATS since 1992 following 2 consecutive road defeats. It is 8-0 ATS since 1992 in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the Vikings are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

4* Major Non-Conference *BEST BET* on Rams +10.5

Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for Denver playing a 3rd road game in as many weeks. It hosts the 6-4 Dolphins next week and the tendency will be to look ahead. The Rams didn't play to their ability last week, but I'm expecting them to get a boost from the insertion of Shaun Hill, who is 7-3 ATS in his last 10 home games in the NFL. The Rams are an outstanding 9-1 ATS at home in the 2nd half of the season versus excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 yards per play or more since 1992.

5* Wiseguy AFC *BEST BET* on Texans +3.5

Bottom Line: Look for Cleveland to suffer a letdown after last week's gigantic win over the Bengals. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a losing record. The Texans are making the switch to Mallet at the right time. He's very familiar with Bill O'Brien's offense from their time together in New England, and he's had an extra week to get all the first team snaps. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland and are catching the Browns at a good time.

5* Wiseguy NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +4.5

Bottom Line: Look for San Francisco to suffer a letdown after last Sunday's huge overtime win in New Orleans. Playing against road teams with a winning record that are off an upset victory has resulted in a 262-181 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing on teams that have been beaten by 49 points or more against the spread in their last five games, provided they are playing a conference opponent, has resulted in an 81-44 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Giants have had San Francisco's number and are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings as a result. Pound the Giants.

4* Major CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Oregon State +10

Bottom Line: The Arizona State Sun Devils are in danger of a letdown following a big win over Notre Dame that has entered them in Final 4 talk. I'm not completely sold on the Sun Devils, and winning by double digits at Oregon State is too much to ask. The Beavers are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in the series. They are also 8-0 ATS after giving up 450 or more total yards in 2 straight games since 1992. They have won these eight by an average of 9.7 points.

4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Miami +3

Bottom Line: FSU has been playing with fire all season, falling behind early but rallying in the second half. This is where it finally gets burned. Teams headed up by Al Golden are 8-0 ATS lifetime as a home dog of 7 points or less and have won these games by an average of 6.0 points. Golden's squads are also 7-0 ATS at home versus good offensive teams that average 31 or more ppg, 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 10 ppg or more and 7-0 ATS in home game versus teams with a pass completion percentage of 62% or higher. Bet Miami.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Georgia -2

Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Auburn after fumbling away a comeback victory and a spot in the football playoff last week. The Bulldogs will have no problem getting up for this one. As you recall, they were gut-punched by Auburn on a tipped 73-yard TD with 25 seconds left last November. 7 games or more into the season, playing against road dogs that average 6.2 yards per play or more and have averaged 525 or more total yards over their last 2 games has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1992, provided they are up against a team that allows 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Georgia.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -8

Bottom Line: This is Stanford's last home game of the season, and it will make it count. The Cardinal still need a win to become bowl eligible so they will be highly motivated. They should also be the more prepared side with last week off to focus solely on this contest. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after a game where they did not cover. They are also 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after playing their last game on the road. Utah has really struggled to stop the run lately, not a good sign considering it is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Pound Stanford.

4* Major CFB Early *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +5.5

Bottom Line: Duke has had a nice run, but VA Tech will put more talent on the field Saturday, and that gives it an excellent shot at pulling the upset. Since joining the ACC in 2004, the Hokies are 9-1 against Duke with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. They are 4-0 at Duke during this stretch. Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy Thursday Night Football Game of the Year on Dolphins -4

Bottom Line: According to the numbers, and the eye test, Miami is the better team, and it will be extremely hungry after last week's loss to Detroit in the closing seconds. It will draw added motivation from the thumping in received in Buffalo back in September. At Game 8 or later, playing teams like Miami that have outgained their opponent by an average of 0.4 to 1.0 yards per play has resulted in a 59-26 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential, provided the play on team was outgained by 100 yards or more last game. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound Miami.

4* Major ESPN2 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on East Carolina -1.5

Bottom Line: The Pirates were stunned at Temple last time out but have had a bye week to regroup, and I fully expect them to respond tonight. They are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. Cincy is 0-8 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.

4* Major MAC Monster on Ball State +4

Bottom Line: Ball State is an unbelievable 43-16 ATS in its last 59 road games, including 15-3 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog of 7 points or less. The Cardinals are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The Cardinals lost 35-21 to Northern Illinois last week in an ugly 5-turnover performance, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Northern Illinois -4.5

Bottom Line: At home on Senior Night with a chance to move into first place in the MAC West, Northern Illinois will take care of business. The Huskies are 4-0 in their last four against Toledo and 3-0 in their last 3 home meetings in the series. These 3 home wins have come by 31, 35 and 7 points. The Huskies get some additional help tonight from Toledo's banged up QB position. Woodside is questionable and won't be close to 100% if he does play. The Rockets took care of Kent State last week, but they are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win against a conference opponent under coach Campbell. Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off 2 straight wins in conference play and are up against a team that's off a double-digit road win has resulted in a 42-10 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Panthers +7

Bottom Line: The Panthers have suffered through a rough stretch but aren't about to close up shop as they are just a game back in the division entering Week 10. The Panthers played the Thursday game last week so they've had a few extra days to refocus. Mark Sanchez stepped in and did well enough to help the Eagles outlast Houston, but Philly is not better off with him under center. The Eagles will also greatly miss middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans who tore his right Achilles tendon last Sunday. Playing underdogs of 3.5-10 points that have been held to 14 points or fewer in 2 consecutive games has resulted in a 33-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that have covered the number in 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 142-91 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound the Panthers.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +6

Bottom Line: The Steelers have looked good in recent weeks with Big Ben playing at a high level, but I expect them to get all they want and more from the Jets. The Steelers are 15-26 ATS in road games following a win under Tomlin. They are 10-19 ATS under Tomlin after a victory of 14 or more points. Additionally, playing underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of 25% or worse that check in off 7 or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 112-67 ATS record since 1983. The Jets are way better than a 1-8 team. They've been close to beating some of the best teams in the league this season and would have had the ball bounced their way a few more times. I like their chances of knocking Pittsburgh off its high horse.

4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +6

Bottom Line: This game means more to the 49ers, who are third in their division. The Saints will be just fine if they lose since no team in the NFC South has a winning record. The Niners are 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh following a stretch of 2 losses in a 3-game span. They have won these 7 by an average of 16.1 points. The Niners are also 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that give up 24.0 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt or more and 7-0 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with no loss by more than 3 points.

5* Wiseguy Blowout Game of the Year on Lions -2.5

Bottom Line: Miami has been rolling, but it runs into a buzzsaw in Detroit. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a bye, and I expect the league's top defense to be stout with the extra prep time. The Phins forced 4 turnovers last week and didn't commit one, but they are 1-14 ATS since 1992 after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or more. They have lost by an average of 12.4 points in this situation. Additionally, at Game 8 or later backing a team that holds opponents to 14-18 ppg that is up against a team that allows 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 45-19 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Lions.

4* MAJOR ESPN ATS *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia +20.5

Bottom Line: The Seminoles have been extremely overvalued all season and are just 2-6 ATS as a result. They should be 1-7 ATS as they were very fortunate to cover last week after falling behind 21-0 at Louisville. The Noles have only 1 win by more than 18 points in FBS action this season. Last week's 25-point loss at Georgia Tech doesn't look good for Virginia, but it hadn't lost by more than 8 points prior to that. The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Virginia keeps this one within the number.

5* WISEGUY C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky -7.5

Bottom Line: When UTEP has been deemed an underdog by odds makers, it's been for good reason. The Miners are just 3-11 ATS when catching points under coach Kugler and have lost these games by 20.9 points on average. They are also 1-8 ATS under Kugler in road games falling after the first month of the season, losing these by an average of 28.9 points. Pound WKU.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +2

Bottom Line: Michigan handled Indiana last week, but I'm not sold that the Wolverines are back. They are a dismal 1-9 ATS in road games following a home win under coach Brady Hoke and have lost by an average of 8.3 points in these contests. Pound Northwestern.

4* MAJOR BIG 12 *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Oklahoma -5.5

Bottom Line: I really feel Oklahoma is the better team, and it will be lacking no motivation after the beating it was handed at Baylor last season. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a conference game involving teams that average 34 ppg or more has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record since 1992. Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in weeks 10-13 that are off a win of 35 points or more over a conference opponent are 60-26 ATS since 1992.