Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NCAAB Pac-12 Tournament TOP PLAY on Washington -

I'm shocked the Huskies aren't a bigger favorite here. Washington failed to cover their last 4, but a lot of that I think was due to complacency, as they had really had their way with the Pac-12. They were just 2-2 in their last 4 games, yet were still a full 3-games ahead of 2nd place Arizona State. 

I'm confident the Huskies will be 100% locked in for the Pac-12 Tournament and they have a big advantage here playing on 4 days of rest, while USC is forced to play on no rest after a big win over Arizona in the opening round on Wednesday. I just don't trust this Trojans team at all. They were a mere 2-7 in their previous 9 games and lost by 13 in the only meetings against the Huskies. Take Washington! 

5* NCAAB Big East Tournament TOP PLAY on Xavier +

The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Xavier was a great team to fade early on in the season, but the Musketeers have come alive down the stretch. Xavier is 6-1 both SU and ATS over their last 7 games and that includes a 12-point win at home against Villanova. 

Creighton has also caught fire, as they come in having won 5 straight, but it was a pretty favorable stretch as 3 of the 5 were at home and one was on the road at DePaul. They did have a nice win at Marquette, but the Golden Eagles struggled down the stretch and were coming off a crushing loss at Villanova. 

Bluejays are just 2-10 ATS last 12 when they come in having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6, while Musketeers are 29-13 ATS last 42 road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take Xavier! 

5* NCAAB Atlantic 10 Tournament TOP PLAY on George Mason -

The Patriots should have no problem covering the number here against the Colonials. George Washington was able to knock off UMass yesterday in the opening round of the A-10 tournament, but only won by 4 and shot just 31% from the field in the process. Prior to that win the Colonials had lost 5 straight and 9 of their last 10. 

These two teams played twice and George Mason won both times, including a 16-point win at George Washington in the most recent meeting less than a week ago (last Saturday). Not only are the Patriots the better team, but them playing on 4 days rest and the Colonials on no rest is a major advantage that I don't think is being factored into the number here. 

Note that George Washington's cover against UMass was only their 8th cover away from home in their last 30 lined games. Colonials are also 0-7 ATS last 7 road games off a conference win and 1-8 ATS last 9 when revenging a home loss. Take George Mason -7.5! 

5* NCAAB Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse -

I'm shocked the Orange aren't a bigger favorite in this one. Pitt has won two straight, but it's come against Notre Dame and Boston College. Prior to the back-to-back victories the Panthers had lost 13 straight. I just don't see the Panthers being competitive at all here playing on no rest against a hungry Syracuse team that has had 3 days off. 

One of the reasons I think the Orange are showing value is the fact that they lost their final 2 and 4 of their last 5 overall. However, three of those losses came against Duke, North Carolina and Virginia. The other was a road game at Clemson in what was the Tigers final home game. 

Pittsburgh are 5-13 TS last 18 games as an underdog and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when revenging a loss where they scored 60 or less (lost 65-56 at home in last meeting). Orange are 7-1 ATS last 8 off a SU loss by 10 or more and 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Syracuse! 

5* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville -

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. Notre Dame comes in off a win over Georgia Tech on Tuesday thanks to some ridiculous shooting in the first half, which saw the Irish put up 52 points and take a 20-point lead. Notre Dame managed just 26-points in the 2nd half and barely held on for the win. 

The Irish had lost 7 straight and the offense had really been atrocious during that stretch. I just really have a hard time seeing Notre Dame being able to do enough offensively against a very good Louisville defense to keep this one respectable. Cardinals went just 3-7 over their final 10, but note that 5 of the 7 losses came against the top 4 teams in Duke, UNC, FSU and Virginia. 

In the only meeting between the two teams this season, Louisville won by 14 and did so despite going a miserable 2 for 22 from behind the 3-point line. Note they still shot 48% from the field overall and were +19 in rebounds. Simply put, this is a complete mismatch and would take something crazy like the Cardinals shooting under 10% from deep for the Irish to sniff a cover. Take Louisville! 

5* America East GAME OF THE MONTH on Binghamton +

I love the value here with the Bearcats as a massive dog against the Catamounts in Tuesday's semifinal action of the America East Tournament. All Binghamton did in the quarterfinals was take down No. 2 seed Stony Brook 78-72 as a 11-point underdog. The Bearcats had 3 different players score 16+ points, led by freshman Sam Sessoms 26 points. 

I'm not saying Binghamton has a realistic shot of upsetting Vermont, but it's not asking a lot for them to keep this within the number. These two teams played in late February and the Bearcats gave the Catamounts all they could handle in a 69-63 loss as a 14.5-point dog. 

Note the books have been really overvaluing Vermont of late. The Catamounts are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games and have covered just 1 of their last 5 off a SU win. Take Binghamton! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on College of Charleston -

Easy play here for me on the Cougars to cover the big number against the Dragons in the Quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. Charleston finished as the No. 3 seed in the conference and come into this thing having gone 9-2 in their last 11 games. On the flip side of this, Drexel is a mere 3-7 in their last 10 and have lost 5 of their last 6. 

Last time out they got annihilated by 24 at home against Northeastern, as they gave up 90 points and let the Huskies shoot over 53% from the field. I just don't see the Dragons being able to keep this within single-digits. Drexel is 2-11 ATS last 13 off a conference home loss and have lost in this spot by an average of 11.1 ppg. Take Charleston! 

5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge +

The books have completely missed the mark here. No way should the Matadors be this big of a dog against the Anteaters. These two played back in January at Northridge and while Irvine won the game by 6-points, they were very fortunate in doing so. The Anteaters shot just 36% from the field, while the Matadors did as they pleased offensively on their way to 48% shooting. I expect more of the same and wouldn't be surprised at all if Northridge won the game outright. 

The Matadors are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. They are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-1 ATS last 5 inside conference play. Irvine is just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they hosted the Matadors and are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home after playing 3 straight on the road. Take CS-Northridge! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Raptors -

This is the perfect spot to jump on Toronto, as we know the Raptors are going to be highly motivated coming off back-to-back losses. Both of those games could have gone the other way and it was more of Toronto simply not shooting well than anything. Raptors shot just 39% at Detroit and then 42% at home against the Rockets. 

I don't see those struggles continuing against the Pelicans. New Orleans has allowed 111 or more points in 10 straight games. They just let the Jazz shoot 52% on their home floor last time out. Opposing teams are shooting 47% from the field against them in their home games this season. 

New Orleans is also going to be down two of their better players, as both E'Twaun Moore and Jrue Holiday are both out. They could also be without Jahlil Okafor, who is questionable. Pelicans have also routinely not showed up with the big crowds on Friday nights, going just 1-10 ATS last 11 games played on Friday. Take Toronto! 

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU +

I really like the value here with the Mustangs as a big road dog against the Cougars. There's no denying that Houston is one of the elite teams in the AAC and in the country. The Cougars have been a money-making machine for their backers, going 18-9 ATS. I just think with Houston coming off an upset loss at home to UCF the books have drastically inflated the number here knowing the public will be itching to back the Cougars off a loss. 

Keep in mind that when these two teams played at SMU back in January the Mustangs were actually a 1-point favorite, which means the Cougars would have been around a 5-6 point home favorite at that time. The line here is more than double that. 

SMU has been great when playing with revenge, especially if the most recent was a lopsided loss. Mustangs are 26-9 ATS last 35 road games revenging a loss of 10 or more. Take SMU! 

5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern pk

This line really says it all. Northwestern is a pick'em at home, despite the fact that they come into this game having lost 10 straight overall and are just 1-8-1 ATS during this stretch. The key here is the Wildcats haven't been nearly as bad as their record would indicate during this run. THey have really been competitive in all but a couple games during this run. 

They will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Ohio State and I'm confident they get it. Wildcats have covered 5 of 7 at home against the Buckeyes and Ohio State is a mere 5-11 ATS last 16 conference games and just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Northwestern! 

5* NCAAB Horizon GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois-Chicago +

Love the value here with the Flames as a dog against Green Bay in Tuesday's quarterfinal action of the Horizon Tournament. Illinois-Chicago will be out for double-revenge here after losing two close games to the Phoenix in the regular-season. The Flames lost by just 5 at Wisconsin Green Bay in the first meeting and then by just 1 at home in the rematch. 

Illinois-Chicago has gone an impressive 34-15 ATS in their last 49 games played in the month of March. Phoenix are just 52-76 ATS last 128 after covering 4 or more of their last 6 games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 40 or more points in the 1st half in 2 straight games. Take Illinois-Chicago! 

5* NCAAB Big Sky GAME OF THE MONTH on Idaho State +

Love the value here with the Bengals as a small home dog against the Wildcats. Idaho State comes in having lost 5 straight and are getting zero respect from the books because of it. Weber State is not playing like a team that should be laying points on the road. The Wildcats have lost each of their last 2 and 3 of 4 overall. 

Weber State was a 4.5-point dog at North Colorado in their last game and got annihilated 85-61. Wildcats are just 1-6 ATS last 7 after playing their previous game as a dog. Idaho State is also 4-2 ATS this season when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 6-1 ATS last 7 at home with a total of 155 to 159.5. Take Idaho State! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls -

Chicago defeated the Hawks 168-161 in 4OT on Friday at Atlanta and I see no reason why they won't make easy work of them on their home floor this afternoon. Bulls have been playing some really good basketball of late.

Chicago is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. They have covered each of their last 4 games against a team with a losing record and are 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with the Hawks. 

Atlanta is a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 2 seasons in the month of March and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 vs an opponent from the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS last 5 after giving up 125 or more points in their previous game. Take Chicago! 

5* NBA Pacific Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Kings -

Love the value here with Sacramento at basically a pick'em at home against the Clippers. The Kings have been one of the best bets in the NBA for a while now. Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games and the books are simply slow to adjust because of how bad this team has been in previous years. 

I believe a big reason the Kings are showing such great value here is because they come in having lost 4 of their last 5. The thing is, 3 of the 4 losses came on the road against the likes of the Nuggets, Warriors and Timberwolves. The other was a 1-point loss at home to the Bucks. 

Kings have been really good at home and it's not just of late. Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games. They are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after losing 3 of their last 4. They also have gone a dominant 8-1 ATS last 9 as a home favorite. Take Sacramento! 

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane +

I really like the value here with the Green Wave as a big road dog against the Golden Hurricane. Tulane is winless in league play at 0-13 and are just 1-12 on the road. The betting public will be running to the ticket window to take Tulsa and the books have adjusted accordingly. 

Tulsa has been overvalued a lot here of late, as they come in having failed to cover each of their last 3. They may also be without their leading scorer for this game, as DaQuan Jeffries (13.7 ppg) is questionable with a concussion. That would be a massive blow, as there's only 2 other players on the team averaging double-figures. 

Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Green Wave. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that allowed 80 or more points in their last game are 84-41 (67%) ATS when facing a team that has failed to reach 30 points in the 1st half in each of their last 2 games. Take Tulane! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech +

I absolutely love the value here with the Hokies as a decently priced home dog against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to pull out a 75-65 win and cover as a 5-point road favorite at Syracuse on Saturday without Zion Williamson, but I think it's a bit misleading, as the Orange shot a miserable 34.3% from the field. 

Williamson won't be available against the Hokies and I just think it's asking a lot for the Blue Devils to win back-to-back on the road without their best player. Keep in mind Duke only shot 44.1% from the field in the win over Syracuse and that was after they shot a miserable 34.7% against UNC at home when Zion went down in the first minute of the game. 

Hokies have really been playing strong defense and we know we are going to get everything they have on that side of the ball in this one. I not only think it allows them to keep it within the number, but to win this game outright. Take Virginia Tech! 

5* NBA Central Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Bulls +

Easy play here on the Bulls at home against the Bucks. Chicago comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they have won 3 straight. The most recent being a 126-116 win at home over the Celtics as a 10-point underdog. The game before that they won at Orlando as a 8-point dog. 

Not only are the Bulls playing well, but the Bucks will be playing this one without Giannis Antetokounmpo, as well as George Hill. Last time Antetokounmpo sat out Milwaukee got managed just 83 points on 33% shooting in a 20-point home loss to the Magic. 

While Jimmy and his long-term clients got the Bulls as a double-digit dog, this play is still recommended at the current line. Take Chicago! 

5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out in a 73-65 win at home over Pitt. I get that Georgia Tech is one of the worst teams in the ACC, but their 4-wins in conference are more than what Miami has. There's simply no reason for the Hurricanes to be laying this kind of number against any team in the conference, even at home. 

Time after time when Miami has got matched up with a poor team they have been way overvalued and that's evident by the Hurricanes 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Miami is also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 conference home games. 

Georgia Tech on the flip side of this is a team that is routinely undervalued on the road. Yellow Jackets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on the road in games played on Saturday (7-2 ATS last 9 on the road overall). They are also 9-3 ATS 12 vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech! 

5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz +

I love the value here with Utah, as I fully expect the Jazz to go into OKC and upset the Thunder. I just think we are going to see Utah really come out in this game with a chip on their shoulder. These two have already played twice this season and the Thunder have won both meetings, so revenge is definitely in play for the Jazz. 

I'm not saying OKC isn't going to show up, but there's no doubt this one doesn't mean as much to them. Keep in mind we saw this team come out extremely flat in their final game before the break, losing by 9 and giving up 131 points at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite.

Fading OKC in division games has been a wise move, as the Thunder are just 10-21 (32%) ATS over the last 2 seasons. Jazz are also a dominant 15-5 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg and 13-2 ATS on the road in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ points/game. Take Utah! 

5* NCAAB Small Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +

This is way too many points for the Dukes to be catching on the road against the Huskies. Northeastern is simply overvalued right now due to the fact that they come in having gone 9-2 over their last 11 games. They started out this run by going 7-1 ATS, but the books have adjusted big time and they come in having failed to cover 3 straight, including a mere 12-point win as a 17-point home favorite over Elon. 

These two teams played once already at James Madison and the Dukes held their own in a 10-point loss. James Madison comes in off back-to-back wins and are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. They have shot 51% or better in all 3 of those covers and Northeastern has allowed Charleston to shoot 48% and UNC-Wilmington to hit 49% in their last 2 games. 

Dukes have also covered 20 of their last 27 on the road against teams like the Huskies who are good 3-point shooting teams (average 8 or more made 3-pointers/game). The road team is also a dominant 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in the series. Take James Madison! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on William & Mary -

I absolutely love the value here with the Tribe as a small road favorite against the Phoenix. Elon is coming into this game off a 12-point loss at Northeastern, but did manage to cover the massive 17-point spread. That right there is enough reason to back William & Mary, as the Phoenix are a miserable 4-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a game where they covered. 

Elon is also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 when listed as an underdog and 2-9 ATS in the month of February. The reason the Phoenix are getting respect from the books is because they beat William & Mary earlier this season. However, that's another big positive for us, as the Tribe are a dominant 17-5 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss and 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite. Take William & Mary! 

5* NCAAB Metro Atlantic Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Marist +

I love the value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Bobcats. Marist comes in off back-to-back wins and have covered 4 of their last 5, including a 78-71 win at Canisius as a 4-point dog.

These two teams played earlier in the season and Quinnipiac won by 14-points. However, Marist shot 54% from the field and were only down 2-points at the half. They basically lost the game at the free throw line, where they went 7 of 14. 

Red Foxes are 34-18 ATS last 52 off a home win by 10 or more and the underdog is 8-3 ATS last 11 in the series. Bobcats are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 at home vs a marginal losing team (win percent 40% to 49%) and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home vs teams who attempt 21 or more 3-points at least 15+ games into the season. Take Marist! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel +

Love the value here with Drexel as a pick'em on the road against James Madison. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won 73-68 at home. The Dukes were very lucky to lose by just 5. Drexel shot a miserable 20% from 3-point range (3-15). 

Expect much better shooting this time around, as the Dragons are coming off a game against Charleston where they shot 54% from the field for the game. Drexel has also covered each of their last 7 games and are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record.

Adding to all this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Dukes. In games involving two marginal losing teams (winning 40% to 49%) the home team is a mere 28-58 ATS if they have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games. That's a 67% system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel! 

5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves - 

I really like this spot for Minnesota as a small home favorite. This has to feel like a must-win for the Timberwolves, who have lost 4 straight and are now 5-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. The team sitting in 8th is the Clippers, which should only add that much more motivation here. 

As for LAC, they made it clear they are more focused on the future than the present with the deals they made at the trade deadline. I get they come in off a 123-112 upset win at Boston as a 11.5-point dog, but they trailed by 28 (trailed 43-20 after 1st quarter) and benefited from the Celtics losing All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving to injury in the 2nd quarter. Each of their last 3 wins have come with them trailing by at least 20. They followed up each of the last two rallies with losses by 19 or more. 

Part of Minnesota's struggles is they have had their top 3 point guards out of the lineup. Jeff Teague is back and should make a bigger contribution in his second game back and there's a chance Derrick Rose returns after practicing on Sunday. Take Minnesota! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -

Love the value here with Baylor at basically a pick'em on their home floor. The Bears come in off a 12-point loss at Texas, but played well enough to win, the Longhorns simply couldn't miss (shot 55%).

Baylor had won and covered 6 straight prior to that loss and I'm confident they return back to form. They have won 3 straight at home and are 7-1 ATS over their 6-3 start to Big 12 play. K-State has been playing well, but this is a big letdown spot for the Wildcats coming off a huge win at Kansas. 

Bears are 7-1 ATS lat 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog, 7-0 ATS last 7 after covering 4 of their last 5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game. Take Baylor!

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU -

This line really says it all. USF comes in having won 3 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, while SMU enters having lost their last 2 and are just 1-4 in their last 5. You wouldn't expect the Bulls to be a 5-point dog here, but that just tells you how much the books not only like the Mustangs to win but to do so rather easily. 

The biggest thing to keep in mind with SMU's 1-4 stretch over their last 5 is just how tough the schedule has been. Out of the 4 losses, 3 were on the road against the likes of Cincinnati, Wichita State and Memphis. The only loss at home was to arguably the best team in the league in Houston. 

In their other 3 conference home games this season they have beat Tulane by 10, Tulsa by 20 and East Carolina by 28. USF's only road win in the AAC is against Tulane and they are the only team in the conference that has yet to win a game (just 4-17 overall). 

Bulls are 14-28 ATS last 42 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6.5 points, while the Mustangs are 23-12 ATS last 35 as a home favorite and 12-3 ATS last 15 at home when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take SMU! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons +

Last time out the Pistons blew a 25-point lead in a 10 point home loss to the Clippers. Blake Griffin called it the worst loss of the year. My money is on Detroit using that defeat as motivation against a Denver team that is slowly getting a bigger and bigger target on their back. 

Nuggets have 6 straight and are tied with Golden State for the best record in the West. The thing is they have been playing short-handed. Garry Harris is out with a groin injury and Jamal Murray has missed the last 5 games with a bad ankle. 

I just think Denver has to be running on fumes right now and it would be really easy for them to look past a Pistons team that has won a mere 9-games since upsetting the Warriors at home back on Dec. 1st. 

Nuggets are also not nearly the same team on the road, where they have failed to cover 6 of their last 8 against teams with a winning home record. Denver is also a mere 15-28 last 43 road games off a win. Take Detroit! 

5* Rams/Patriots SUPER BOWL 53 Top Play on Rams +

I really like the Rams to take down Belichick and Brady in Super Bowl 53. I love that after their big win over the Chiefs the Patriots have regained the public backing and are favored here. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. 

Unlike Kansas City, whose defense just wasn't quite good enough, the Rams got the guys up front that can really disrupt Brady. It's a lot easier to set up your blocking to slow down edge rushers like the Chiefs' Dee Ford and Justin Houston. It's a whole different animal trying to slow down the dynamic duo of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. 

Just look at previous Super Bowls involving the Patriots. Their offense has struggled when going up against teams that can get pressure up the middle and force Brady out of the pocket. On the other side of the ball, New England has struggled with these high-powered offenses and I think Sean McVay and the Rams will be able to learn a lot with how the Patriots defended the Chiefs. Keep in mind that once KC figured out what the Pats were doing defensively, they did whatever they wanted. 

I just think the Rams have the better team and the edge on both sides of the football. Only reason the Patriots are favored is because of what they have done in the past. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pepperdine +

Books have the wrong team favored in this one. Pepperdine should have zero problem leaving Pacific with a win Saturday night. The Waves just absolutely rolled Portland 83-58 as a mere 5-point road favorite last time out. That's 3 straight covers, giving them a 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 games. 

Clearly the books are not giving Pepperdine the respect they deserve. Pacific is a mere 2-6 SU in their last 8 and have failed to cover 3 straight. Note that the two wins for the Tigers are both against Portland and neither came easy. For those that don't know, Portland is the worst team in the WCC (currently 0-8 in conference play). Take Pepperdine! 

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Quinnipiac +

Love the value here with the Bobcats getting points against the Golden Griffins. Canisius is getting way too much love here at home, as they have shown to have little to no home court advantage. The Golden Griffins are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in home lined games this season. 

Another big reason I like Quinnipiac here is they will extra motivated to get revenge from a crushing 2-point loss at home to Canisius earlier this season. This is definitely the time to jump on the Bobcats, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win, 7-0 ATS last 7 road games with a total of 140 to 149.5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Take Quinnipiac! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown -

Easy play here on the Bears as a slim road favorite at Dartmouth Friday night. Brown is simply the better team, but the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses to Yale and the Big Green split their two games against Harvard, we are getting a great price on them. Yale looks like the team to beat in the Ivy League so far and the Bears played them tough in both meetings, losing by just 3 at home and by 8 on the road. 

Dartmouth had the big upset over Harvard at home, but let's not forget the Big Green were the consensus pick to finish last in the Ivy League and this is a spot they have struggled in. Dartmouth is a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games against a top tier team that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Bears are also a strong 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road. Take Brown! 

5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacific +

The Tigers should have zero problem covering here at Loyola-Marymount. The overall records make it look like the Lions are the far superior team, but I think this is a very evenly matched game. Pacific is 2-5 and getting outscored by 6.3 ppg in conference play. Loyola-Marymount is only 3-4 and are getting outscored by 4.7 ppg. 

The Tigers come into this game off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread, but that's actually a positive for us. Pacific is 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons after failing to cover two straight. The Tigers are are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a conference win. Lions are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Take Pacific! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel +

This is the perfect spot to jump on the Dragons as a road dog. Drexel hosted William & Mary earlier this season and got embarrassed 84-66. That's not a concern here, as the Dragons are a remarkable 25-9 ATS in their last 34 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more. 

The Tribe are also a team that you want to fade at home against bad teams. William & Mary are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games in the month of January and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. The Tribe have also failed to cover 5 straight, while the Dragons are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Drexel! 

5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge +

The Matadors will have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog against the Titans. These two teams have pretty much identical records, but we are seeing the line heavily shaded in favor of Cal State Fullerton because they come in having won 4 straight and covered 3 in a row. 

I just think this line should be closer to 3, giving us more than 4-points in value on a team that can win this game outright. Adding to this, we see that the Matadors are a dominant 9-1 ATS last 10 road games in the month of January and are a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games off a SU win. Take CS-Northridge! 

5* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco -

Amazing value here with the Dons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Toreros. San Francisco comes in having won 3 straight. The last two in blowout fashion, beating BYU by 19 and Portland by 22. Dons are 14-3 ATS last 17 when off a conference win by 20 or more. 

There's also a big time system in play favoring the Dons to cover. Road favorites who are a strong offensive team (74-78 ppg) against a sub-par defensive team (67-74 ppg) are 53-22 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Take San Francisco! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Cornell +

Love the value here with Cornell getting this many points. These two teams played each other last time out and the Big Red pulled out a 60-59 win at home. A pretty impressive victory given they were so sloppy with the ball. Cornell had 20 turnovers, wich was their most in a game since early December. 

I think they clean up those mistakes and not only cover the spread, but win this game outright. Columbia is just 2-10 ATS last 12 at home when revenging a loss of 3-points or less.

Great system favoring a play on the Big Red. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are coming off a home win by 3-points or less and have a winning percentage between 45%-55% are 161-97 (62%) ATS since 1997. Take Cornell! 

5* NCAAB Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel +

Too much value to pass up with the Dragons catching this many points on the road against the Blue Hens. Drexel comes in off back-to-back wins where they covered the spread and are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4.

Delaware has dropped 2 of their last 3, including a loss at home to Towson as a similarly priced 5.5-point favorite. Dragons have covered 7 of their last 10 in conference play and Drexel head coach Zach Spiker is 11-2 in road games when his team is coming off a home win. Take Drexel! 

5* NCAAB Ivy League GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown +

The Bears should have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog at Yale. The Bulldogs are getting way too much respect here because they are a perfect 5-0 at home, enter on a 7-game winning streak and are 3-1 ATS last 4. 

Just so happens these two teams just played each other in their last game on Saturday. Yale barely snuck out a 70-67 win. It's really tough to beat the same team twice in a short window like this, especially when you have a quality team like Brown. I actually think the Bears have a really good shot at winning this game outright. 

Either way they are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 road games off a home loss, 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after a game where they failed to cover and 5-0 last 5 on the road overall. Take Brown! 

5* NCAAB West Coast (WCC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola Marymount +

I like the Lions to win this game outright, making them an easy play here as a decently priced dog. San Diego has been overvalued here of late, as the Toreros are just 2-5 ATS last 7. Last time out they got rolled by 17 points at St Mary's. They were also upset in their most recent home game, losing 76-71 to Pepperdine as a 8-point favorite. 

Loyola-Marymount comes in off a win over Pepperdine at home, but did fail to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. That's okay, as the Lions have cashed 8 of their last 10 games when coming off a ATS loss. Lions are also 8-3 ATS last 11 road games, 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Loyola-Marymount! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on St. Peter's +

Love the Peacocks here. St. Peter's should have no problem winning this game, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point dog. The Purple Eagles should not be favored. These two teams have played 4 common opponents.

While the Peacocks are just 1-3, Niagara is 0-4. The defensive numbers really stand out, as St Peters only gave up 58.5 ppg in these 4, while the Purple Eagles are allowing 77 ppg. 

The Peacocks have gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning record. They are also 8-2 ATS last 10 in conference play and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a game where they failed to cover. 

Niagara has failed to cover 5 of their last 7, are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 home games on Tuesday night and 4-18 ATS last 22 at home after playing 5 straight games as an underdog. Take St. Peter's!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson +

Love the value here with the Tigers at this price. Towson comes in having lost 6 straight and failed to cover the spread in all 6. It's been some bad luck for the Tigers, as all 6 losses have been respectable. The most they lost by in this stretch is 12-points. 

Delaware is coming in off a win and cover at home against James Madison. They have struggled i this spot historically, going just 39-61 ATS at home at a cover. I think the Blue Hens will really struggle to give the Tigers the respect they deserve. Wouldn't be shocked at all if Towson won this game.

Adding to this is a big time system in play on the Tigers. Underdogs who are coming off a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field are 78-34 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games where you have two average defensive teams that are allowing teams to shoot 42.5%-45%. Take Towson +6!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY  on Marist +

Big time value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Gaels. Marist is way undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 5 of their last 6. Iona is also overvalued having won 3 of 5. Gaels covered last time out and are just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 after covering their previous game. 

Marist has had no problem cashing in a winning ticket when they visit Iona, as they are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 trips to face the Gaels. 

It's also worth pointing out that Iona comes into this game off a 88-70 road win at Canisius, which puts the Gaels into a very profitable system to fade. Favorites on Friday nights that are coming off an upset win as a road dog are a mere 18-52 (25.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marist! 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +

The Dukes should have no problem covering the small number here at Delaware, as I got them winning this game outright. James Madison comes in off two strong games, as they beat Towson 74-65 as a 4-point favorite and won 69-58 at home against College of Charleston as a 8.5-point dog. 

As for the Blue Hens, they just lost at College of Charleston by 13, snapping their 4-game win streak. I look for Delaware to struggle again here, as they are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home after going 4-1 in their previous 5 games.

The Dukes are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a quality team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home. Take James Madison! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson +

This series has been dominated by the road dog. The road team has covered 8 of the last 12 and the underdog has cashed in 11 of the last 17. Towson is 4-1-1 in their last 6 trips to Drexel. I not only like them to keep it within the number, but I think the Tigers win this game outright. 

Thees are two of the worst teams in the Colonial Athletic and there's just not any home court edge for a team like the Dragons. One area where Towson should have a big edge is on the boards. Tigers are outrebounding opponents by an average of 6/game. Dragons are 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team that averages +4 or better rebound margin and have lost these game by an average of 10 points. Take Towson! 

5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +

I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread. 

Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly. 

The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH BEST BET on Towson +

The books have completely missed the mark here with the Tigers as a 5-point road dog. My numbers show this game should be a lot closer to a pick'em. James Madison has the better record, but that's simply because they played the much easier non-conference schedule. 

The Dukes won and covered their last time out, but are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a game where they covered. James Madison is also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Towson! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara +

Love the value here with the Purple Eagles as a dog against the Stags. Fairfield is getting way too much credit on their home floor. The Stags are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their 4 home games this season. 

Niagara is simply the better team and my numbers say they should be the ones favored in this matchup. The Purple Eagles have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Niagara is also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS last 6 after two or more losses. 

On top of all that, we find a great long-term system backing the away team. Road teams of +3 to -3 that have allowed 75 or more points in 2 straight games are 66-34 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a team that just allowed 85 or more. Take Niagara! 

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Wichita 

I love the value here with the Shockers at a pick'em on their home floor. I think we are going to get a huge effort here from Wichita State coming off a couple of road losses to VCU and Memphis. Shockers didn't play up to their potential in either game. 

Temple is a quality team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now and this is not an easy spot for the Owls. Temple just played at UCF on Wednesday and have played a mere 1 home game since Nov. 16. 

Shockers are 5-1 at home this season and their defense has been outstanding at home. Wichita State is holding teams to 63.8 ppg and 40.1% shooting at home. I like the Shockers to not just win, but win comfortably. Take Wichita State! 

5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens -

This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards. 

The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games. 

I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore! 

5* MAAC College Hoops GAME OF THE MONTH on Canisius +

The books have completely missed the mark here. My ratings say the Golden Griffens, despite their 3-8 record, should be favored in this matchup against 5-7 Marist.

Canisius has played a brutal schedule to this point and it simply has them way undervalued here. We just saw this team win outright as a dog at Elon and cover as a 7-point dog at Holy Cross a few days later. 

These two have a common opponent in Buffalo and while both loss, the Griffens lost by just 15, where the Red Foxes lost by 27 and managed just 49 points. Last year Canisus won both meetings and have won 4 of the last 5. 

Golden Griffins are 19-7 ATS last 26 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs the MAAC. Take Canisius! 

5* College Football BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Florida +

Time after time these Group of 5 teams that earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl show big time value in their bowl game. The perception that I think people have is that these teams aren't as good as people think because they don't play in a Power 5 Conference and will be no match against a top tier team from one of those conferences. 

This is not only not true, but it also gives these small conference schools a ton of motivation to prove people wrong. On the flip side of this, I think it's hard for the Power 5 teams they are playing to give them the respect they deserve. 

UCF will be without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton, but are in good shape with Darriel Mack Jr. They guy led the team from a double-digit deficit to defeat Memphis 56-41 in the American title game. All he did is throw for 348 yards 2 touchdowns, while rushing for 59 yards and 4 scores. 

I'm not saying they are going to win the game, but I think they got more than enough offense to do so and I'm confident that if they do lose it will be by a touchdown or less. Take UCF! 

5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -

Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers. 

You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend. 

While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field. 

Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +

The Dukes should have zero problem here covering on the road against the Tribe. James Madison comes in off an ugly 75-48 loss at Fordham as a mere 3.5-point dog and that's definitely playing into this inflated number on William & Mary. 

It's been a wise move to jump on the Dukes in this spot, as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 20 points or more. 

We are also talking about a William & Mary team that has only won 4 games all season. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents. The Dukes are 1-2 vs those teams and the Tribe are 0-3. 

William & Mary is also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning straight up record and the Dukes are a rock solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs a team from the CAA. Take James Madison! 

5* Vikings/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +

We are seeing a big time overreaction here given the situation and it's generated great value with Detroit. Minnesota comes in off a 41-17 home win over the Dolphins and the perception here is they are the only team with something to play for and will win easy. 

I'm not about to overreact to the Vikings beating a mediocre at best Miami team at home. This is also a division game and there's nothing more satisfying than playing spoiler against a division rival when you aren't in the playoff mix. I expect a big time effort here from the Lions to make sure the Vikings join them at home watching the postseason. 

Detroit has really been competitive of late. In their last 5 games their only bad loss is a 14-point defeat at home to the Rams, but that was a very misleading final score, as the Lions merely trailed by 3-points (16-13) going into the 4th quarter and LA added a late TD. 

Detroits's defense has really played well and let's not forget how much this Vikings offense was struggling prior to their big game last week against the Dolphins. It's far from a guarantee that Minnesota even wins this game. Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a SU win and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 off a game they covered the spread. Take Detroit! 

5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz +

The books are absolutely begging the public to take the Warriors here as a small road favorite and they are doing exactly that (close to 70% action on Golden State). They did the same thing when these two met back in October and the Jazz covered in a painful 124-123 loss as 2.5-point dog. 

There's no doubt that Utah has been itching for this rematch after nearly knocking off the defending champs. We are going to get their best effort here. It's hard for Golden State to get up for regular-season games and I have to think they are a bit annoyed that they have this 1-game road trip to Utah before returning home for Christmas (next road game is 12/29). 

Not to mention the Warriors aren't just struggling to cover on the road, they are a mere 8-7 straight up away from Oracle Arena. Golden State is also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Utah! 

5* NBA Southeast PLAY OF THE MONTH on Hawks +

This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta as a home dog against the Wizards. Washington has been one of the most overvalued teams this season, especially on the road. The Wizards are 4-12 SU and 4-12 ATS in their 16 road games. 

I get the Hawks aren't a great team, but no way should Washington be a road favorite. The Wizards come in off what looks like an impressive 128-110 win over the Lakers, but they got a LA team that didn't show up to play on the second night of a back-to-back road set. Prior to that win they had lost 4 straight, including a 15-point loss on the road to the Cavs. 

Wizards are 0-9 ATS last 9 road games after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after a game with a combined score of 235 or more. Take Atlanta! 

5* NFL Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers +

This is the perfect time to buy low on the Panthers. Carolina has surprised just about everyone by losing 5 straight after starting the year 6-2. While it's hard to find positives in a 5-game losing streak, the Panthers have had their chances. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by 7-points or less and 4 of the last 5 have been on the road. 

Carolina is a dominant 5-1 at home and their lone home loss to the Seahawks is a game they gave away late. There's no way the Panthers should be catching almost a touchdown on their home field against any team in the league. New Orleans however is a massive public team right now. The Saints just covered a 9.5-point spread at Tampa Bay (very fortunate to cover) and are 10-1 ATS last 11. 

The big key here is the New Orleans offense is not playing at the same level it was early on. The Saints were held to just 10-points in a loss at Dallas and while they ended up with 28 last week at Tampa, they had just 3 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Carolina's got he talent up front to give the Saints trouble and that should be more than enough to keep them in this game. 

It's also worth noting this game means everything for the Panthers, who need to win to have a realistic shot at making it as a Wild Card. This one doesn't mean nearly as much to the Saints, thanks in large part to the Rams loss last night. A loss here and New Orleans still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Take Carolina! 

5* NFL Browns/Broncos NO LIMIT Top Play on Browns +

Cleveland has been a different team since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were shown the door. They have already won 3 games under interim head coach Gregg Williams. That's as many as Jackson won in his entire tenure. 

A big reason for that is the talent they now have at quarterback. Baker Mayfield passes the eye test and is only going to keep getting better. Browns have won 3 of their last 4 and the lone loss against the Texans was a lot more competitive than the final score. Cleveland just didn't take care of the ball. 

While there chances of making the playoffs are slim, the fact that they even have a shot is enough for this team to play hard. I don't think Denver is looking at this the same way, especially after losing last week to a bad 49ers team. Not to mention all the key guys that are now out to injury for the Broncos. This line is begging for you take them as a slim home favorite, which is even more reason to like the Browns. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Magic +

I really like this spot for Orlando to cover the spread and possible win the game outright at Dallas on Monday. This is a big letdown spot for the Mavs, who are coming off a thrilling 107-104 win at home over the Rockets. 

As for the Magic, we can bank on a big effort here after back-to-back home losses to the Nuggets and Pacers. Orland has been a solid road team. They are 6-6 away from home and most importantly, 9-2 ATS on the highway. Magic have also covered 7 straight away from home when facing a team that is allowing 106+ points/game. 

Another thing is Orlando is fresh, as they have played just once in the last 4 days. Playing into that is a great system in favor of a Magic cover. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are playing just their 4th or less game in the last 10 days are 41-15 (73%) ATS in the month of December over the last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! 

5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens +

This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games. 

With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball. 

With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce. 

The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida +

I cashed in on the Gators in their 10-point win over West Virginia and I'll gladly back them as a home dog here against the Spartans. Florida beat the Mountaineers by double-digits, despite shooting a mere 33.3% from the field. Note that game was played on a  neutral court. 

This has been a much different Florida offense at home, where they are averaging 85.3 ppg and shooting 53.1% from the field. It's not so much the offense, as it is the defense that has me liking the Gators here. Michigan State took won't have the same advantages against Florida as they did in their 22-point blowout win at home against Iowa, where they shot 52%. 

Spartans are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games after 2 or more wins and are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take Florida! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH  on Oklahoma -

This is a no-brainer for me. I think Oklahoma is the better team and it's not even close. While both teams come into this game with a 6-1 record, the Sooners' 6-1 record has been a lot more impressive. 

Oklahoma's only loss is to a Wisconsin team that figures to finish near the top of the Big Ten. They have impressive wins over Florida and Dayton and have only played 2 true home games so far this season. Notre Dame has a 2-point win over Illinois on it's resume, but also a loss at home to Radford. Irish have also played all 7 of their games at home. 

Both teams lost a lot from last year, but I think a lot more people wrote off Oklahoma because they lost a superstar in Trae Young. While Young was the talk of CBB, the Sooners went just 4-12 down the stretch. A lot of that was it was a one-man show. This year they are playing much better team basketball and a lot better defense. I look for them to win this one going away. Take Oklahoma! 

5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -

I got no problem laying this number here at home with the Buckeyes against the Gophers. Minnesota is going to be a trendy pick here by the pubic, as this will look like too many points for them to be catching, as they are 6-1 with wins over Utah, Texas A&M, Washington and most recently Oklahoma State.

However, their lone loss came in their only true road game against Boston College and they got rolled by 12-points and shot a miserable 29.2% from the field. Ohio State can really lock teams down defensively and were playing extremely well (won true road games at Cincinnati and Creighton) before a setback at home against a quality Syracuse team. 

Buckeyes lost to the Orange by a final score of 72-62 and that's worth noting, as they are a prefect 5-0 ATS last 5 times they have come off a double-digit home loss. Gophers on the other hand are 0-4 ATS last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 1-9 ATS last 10 off a cover. Home team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and Gophers are 1-10 ATS last 11 trips to Columbus. Take Ohio State! 

5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +

I just think Detroit is too talented a team to be getting double-digits at home, especially in this spot. While we all know the Lions aren't a playoff team, the mindset for this team is they win out and they have a chance, so I expect a max effort here to save their season. 

On the flip side of this, the Rams are returning from their bye week and they went into their bye off that thrilling 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. LA has to be feeling pretty good about themselves and Detroit's not the kind of team that will get their attention.

I think the Rams come out flat here and we have seen the Lions pull off some impressive performances at home. They dominated the Patriots 26-10 early on in the season and later beat the Packers 31-23 and recently knocked off Carolina as a 4-point dog. 

Prior to beat the Chiefs the Rams had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games. As long as the public thinks they are the best team, they will be way overvalued. Take Detroit! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech -

It's been a disappointing season for the Hokies, but this is not near enough points for Virginia Tech to be laying at home against a C-USA opponent. I get that Marshall enters this game 8-3, but they didn't even win their own division in one of the lower ranked FBS conferences. 

The Thundering Herd have also played a cupcake schedule. Out of their 8 wins, the only one against a team that currently has a winning record is last week's win over FIU. A game they won by a mere 3-points, despite recording two non-offensive touchdowns. They avoided all 3 of the top teams out of the C-USA West and in their step up game against C-USA East winner (Middle Tennessee), they lost by 10 at home. 

Any thoughts that the Hokies aren't motivated to play because things didn't go their way can be put to rest after last week's 34-31 upset win at home over in-state rival Virginia. With that win, Virginia Tech simply needs to win this game at home to become bowl eligible. Justin Fuente is going to want those extra practices with this young and talented team and will have his team ready to go on Saturday. 

Hokies are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 18-7 ATS last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. Herd are 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU Win and a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 overall. Take Virginia Tech! 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Dayton +

The public is going to be all over the ranked Bulldogs, but I don't think Mississippi State should be favored. I wasn't all that impressed with the Bulldogs showing in Las Vegas. They lost outright to Arizona State as a 4.5-point favorite and barely held on for a 4-point win against St. Mary's. 

Dayton on the other hand is a team I think is flying under the radar. The Flyers struggled in the first year under head coach Anthony Grant, but return 4 starters and outside of an awful 10 minutes stretch against Oklahoma, I've liked what I have seen. 

Dayton only lost by 7 on a neutral court to Virginia and shot 54.3% from the field, which is outstanding against that Cavaliers' defense. They were up decent on Oklahoma in the 2nd half, but went ice cold and scored 2 points in a 10-minute stretch. 

With the Bulldogs not quite as good as people think and this being Mississippi State's first true road game, I like Dayton to win this matchup. Flyers are 13-5 ATS L18 vs a team from the SEC, while Bulldogs are 1-11 ATS last 12 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat Alcorn St by 23 last time out). Take Dayton! 

5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys +

We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys. 

That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11. 

The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas! 

5* NBA Central Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

I got no problem here laying the big number with Milwaukee at home against the Bulls. The Bucks come into this one off a upset loss at Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite. Milwaukee hasn't lost back-to-back games all season and are 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. 

The Bulls are really struggling right now. Chicago has lost 3 straight and are a mere 3-12 in their last 15. Until they get some of their key guys back from injury, they are going to struggle to be competitive, especially against the elite teams. These two teams played earlier this month and the Bucks toyed with Chicago in a 123-104 win, as they led 63-45 at the half. 

Big system in play as well. Favorites who have won between 60% to 75% of their games and are off a game where they failed to cover are a dominant 39-15 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a horrible team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Loyola-Chicago +

Expectations were sky-high for Loyola-Chicago coming into this year after that Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament a year ago. I think a lot of people are off this team though after their 4-2 start, which includes a double-digit loss to Boston College last time out. 

I still think the Ramblers are a very dangerous team, especially on their home floor and Nevada is simply getting too much respect. The Wolf Pack come in with a perfect 6-0 record and averaging 92 ppg. They aren't a bad team, but they have played a soft schedule and will get knocked off at some point. I think there's a good chance it happens tonight, as this will be their first true road game of the 2018 season. 

Ramblers are 15-6 ATS last 21 as an underdog and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off a loss by 10 or more points. Take Loyola-Chicago! 

5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +

It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown. 

I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright. 

The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down.

Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +

The wrong team is favored in this one. It's been quite a run for Washington State this season, as no one outside of Pullman was expecting this team to be in this spot after what they lost from last year's team. I just don't think this is the 8th best team in the country. We are talking about a team that lost to a bad USC team and has three other wins by a touchdown or less. 

Washington is the team that was suppose to be the talk of the Pac-12 this season, as a lot of people had them picked to make the playoffs. It just didn't work out like they hoped, but there's no denying the talent on this team. Not only are they playing for 1st place in the Pac-12 North and a spot in the conference title game, there's definitely motivation here to ruin Washington State's season and they would love nothing more than to celebrate on the Cougars home field. 

I think the difference here will be the Huskies defense, which comes in allowing a mere 16.6 ppg and 318 ypg. Keep in mind Washington has had zero problem slowing down Mike Leach and this Washington State offense. In the last 5 meetings between these two rivals, the Cougars haven't scored more than 17 points in any single game. All 5 times the Huskies won by double-digits. Expect more of the same. Take Washington! 

5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Falcons +

The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up. 

Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that. 

I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta! 

5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions +

I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings. 

The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota. 

Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less. 

We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit! 

5* NBA Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

The Bucks should have no problem here winning and covering the number. Milwaukee's got away with some sloppy starts here of late, but I don't think they will be sleep-walking through the start of this one. That's because the Bucks will be out for revenge from an ugly 15-point loss at Portland earlier this month. 

Milwaukee is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home, so the books have clearly not given this team enough respect when they take the floor at the Fiserv Forum. Portland is a good team and in normal circumstances might put up a decent fight, but they have to be running on fumes. Blazers are playing their 5th straight game on the road. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 nights and they just played last night in New York. Not to mention their next game is against the Warriors on Friday, so hard to not look ahead to that one just a little bit. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Suns +

I really like the value here with Phoenix as a double-digit dog against the 76ers. I just think Philadelphia is bit overvalued right now with the recent trade of Jimmy Butler and them having won and covered their last two. 

The thing is, they could very easily be 0-3 with Butler. They lost his debut at Orlando, beat Utah at home by just 6 points and the Jazz shot 4 of 22 (18.2%) from deep and 56.8% from the free throw line. Then last time out they overcame a 60-point night from Kemba Walker in a 122-119 overtime win at Charlotte. 

I think that game against the Hornets really took a lot out of this team (all 5 starters played 30+ mins) and this is not as deep a team after the trade. With how bad the Suns have been, I just feel this is one of those games that the 76ers go through the motions and have to scratch out a win late. Take Phoenix! 

5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears -

I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should 

The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff. 

Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -

I get that Penn State is essentially playing for pride at this point, but I really like how this team responded from that ugly loss to Michigan, beating Wisconsin by double-digits. The Nittany Lions haven't laid it on an opponent since they throttled Illinois 63-24 way back on Sept. 20th. 

I just think this team is going to be looking to take out some of their frustration with how the season has gone in this one. I also don't think there's anything Rutgers can do to stop it. I think the Scarlet Knights have accepted this season for the disaster that it is and just aren't that motivated to play these final two games. 

Sure they might come out with some fight given it's their last home game, but once they get down by two scores, they aren't going to hesitate to throw in the towel. For a team like Rutgers to keep it close against an offense like Penn State, you have to be able to throw the football and the Scarlet Knights have one of these worst passings attacks in the country, which is averaging 143 ypg and own a 49.7 completion rate.

Nittany Lions are 21-4 ATS in their last 35 off a conference win, while Rutgers is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a loss by 35 or more (fell 42-7 to Michigan last time out). Take Penn State! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary +

Big time value here with the Tribe as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has really shot the ball poorly to start the season. They are shooting just 38.7% from the field thru three games. Last time out they went 22 of 61 (36.1%) in a 63-60 loss at home to Radford. 

Irish are a mere 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games vs a bad team that's won between 20%-40% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less. 

Tribe are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games after allowing previous two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games after a game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take William & Mary! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara +

It's been quite the impressive start for the Purple Eagles. They opened the year with a 80-72 win at home as a dog against St. Bonaventure, then proved it was no fluke with a competitive loss and cover at Loyola-Chicago. 

I go ahead and take the points for insurance, but I like Niagara to win this game outright. Wyoming has been overvalued in each of their first three, as they haven't covered a spread yet and I think the books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team. 

Cowboys are a mere 5-13 ATS last two seasons as a favorite. It's also worth noting that in that closer than expect loss to the Ramblers, the Purple Eagles shot a dreadful 29.2% from the field. Under head coach Chris Casey they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they shot 33% or worse. Take Niagara! 

5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR  on Packers +

There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals. 

While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense. 

The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play  on Niagara +

I really like the value here with the Purple Eagles as a big dog against everyone's favorite Cinderella story from last year in Loyola-Chicago. Last year the Ramblers surprised everyone all the way to the Final Four. With that success comes expectations, as well as a pretty big target on your back. 

We have already seen them stumble, as they lost their second game of the season to Furman at home as a 8.5-point favorite. Loyola shot just 37% from the field. All Niagara did in their first game is upset a St Bonaventure team at home 80-72 as a 4.5-point dog. A team that you might recall won 26 games last year. 

The biggest thing for me with the Ramblers is last year's success came in year 7 under head coach Porter Moser, so it's not like he just arrived and flip the script. It tells me last year's success was about the talent on hand and while they got some nice pieces back they lost three seniors who played big roles. I'm not saying they won't win this one, I just don't seem them winning by double-digits. Take Niagara! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -

I love the Illini at this price against the Hoyas. I think this Illinois team might be one of the biggest sleepers in the country. Brad Underwood had a great track record of improving teams in his first year on the job, but Illinois actually got worst in his first go of things last season. 

Underwood could have had basically the same team back, but instead got rid of the players that didn't fit his system and added in a bunch of talent (6 freshmen, 2 transfers). One of those freshman is 5-star point guard Ayo Dosunmu, who now gives them 3 playmakers in the backcourt with the return of senior Aaron Jordan and sophomore Big Ten All-Freshman guard Trent Frazier. 

Georgetown had similar struggles in the first year under head coach Patrick Ewing. I don't see the same upside with the Hoyas in year-two. Georgetown is 2-0, but only beat Maryland Eastern Shore by 15 as a 30.5-point favorite then had to hold on for a 7-point win at home against Central Connecticut. Illinois put up 99 in a 36-point win over Evansville as a mere 16-point favorite and that same Evansville team only lost by 6-points the next time out at Xavier. 

I just don't see Georgetown being able to keep pace offensively with this Illini team, especially on the road. Take Illinois! 

5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +

Big time value here with Tennessee as a touchdown dog at home against the Patriots. After that ugly start to the year New England has won 6 straight and gone 5-1 ATS in the process. After the books got killed in Week 9, they are making the public pay and this is just way too many points for the Patriots to be laying on the road against a good team like the Titans. 

I know Tennessee doesn't always look pretty, but they are 4-4 and have covered 5 of their last 7. The most recent being a 28-14 win at Dallas as a 4-point dog. This Titans defense is way better than they get credit for. Their strength is against the pass, as they rank 7th allowing just 239.0 ypg. 

While the offense can look anemic at times, this Patriots defense is one they should be able to move the ball against. NE is allowing 23.5 points/game, 420 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play on the road. I don't think there's a ton of difference from Tennessee and say the Bears, yet the NE was a mere 2-point favorite at Chicago and needed a lot to go right to win that game. 

Titans are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Tennessee! 

5* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU +

No one is going to give TCU any shot of winning this game and with all the pressure that's on West Virginia to win out and potentially make the playoffs, I think this is the definition of a trap game. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers are off that thrilling 42-41 win at Texas, where they scored a touchdown in the final seconds and instead of playing for overtime, they went for two and got it. 

Easy for them to look past the Horned Frogs, who were just 1-5 in their previous 6 games before sneaking out a win at home against Kansas State thanks to a missed extra point by the Wildcats. I know it's nothing to be impressed with, but any kind of momentum is a big positive for TCU going into this fight. 

The Horned Frogs are going to be extremely motivated here to play spoiler and they still need to win 2 of their final 3 to get bowl eligible. I don't know if they can pull off the upset, but it's definitely not out of the question with how strong they are defensively. 

The one game that West Virginia lost was against Iowa State, who I think is right there with TCU for the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones didn't just keep Will Grier and the Mountaineers in check, they held them to 9 first downs and 152 total yards. Horned Frogs are 28th in the country vs the pass (190.7 ypg), which is where you have to be strong to slow down WV. Look for this to be a low-scoring game and for the Horned Frogs to keep it close. Take TCU! 

5* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz -

This is an easy play on Utah as a small home favorite against the Celtics. The Jazz really need to get on track after losing 4 of their last 5. They were able to stop the bleeding and their 4-game skid with a 15 point win over the Mavs last time out. I expect that strong play to carry over to this one. 

We know we are going to get a big effort here from Utah, as this will be the first time that long-term Jazz star Gordon Hayward returns to Utah in an opposing team's uniform. On top of that, the Jazz are catching Boston at the perfect time. The Celtics are in the midst of a 5-game road trip and playing on zero rest after rallying in the 2nd half to win in OT at Phoenix last night. Boston looked like they were already running on fumes, as they scored just 35 in the 1st half against the Suns. 

They simply aren't going to have the energy/effort to keep this game competitive. We also now know Kyrie Irving won't play and I could see some other guys minutes restricted, as this game just doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things for the Celtics. Take Utah! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal-Irvine +

I fully expect UC Irvine to a be a team people are talking about as a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament. The Anteaters are absolutely loaded in terms of experience and talent for a team of their size. Irvine gets back all 5 starters, their top 3 reserves and talented redshirt freshman Collin Welp. 

It's why the Anteaters are as short a dog as they are against a Power 5 program in Texas A&M, who has two starters back from last year's Sweet 16 team. The thing with the Aggies is they figure to be down a few notches after losing one of the best frontcourts in the country with Tyler Davis, D.J. Hogg and Robert Williams all gone. In total they lost 4 guys 6-9 or taller who averaged at least 6.7 ppg and 4.4 rpg. 

I not only think the Anteaters will keep this thing close enough to cover, but I like them to win this one outright. They already won and covered as a 15-point favorite in their season opener (shot 54% from the field). Aggies on the other hand won by just 15 as a 29-point favorite. Take UC-Irvine! 

5* NCAAB Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Fran +

I'm shocked the Dons are a dog in this fight, but I'll gladly take some insurance points in a game I see San Francisco winning rather easily. The Dons have won 42 games in the first two seasons under head coach Kyle Smith and made it all the way to the CBI Finals last March. 

This year's team looks even stronger than the one that went 22-17 and finished 4th in the WCC behind the likes of Gonzaga, St Mary's and BYU. They probably can't challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I could definitely see them surprising and finishing higher in the standings. 

UC Davis is also off a strong season and et back Big West Player of the Year T.J. Shorts, but lost two key starters, including China Moneke, who nearly averaged a double-double (18.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg). I just don't see them keeping pace with the Dons in this one. Take San Francisco! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Wizards -

Last time out the Wizards were booed off their own court in a 134-111 loss at home to the Thunder. Washington is now 1-7 thru their first 8 games and have lost 5 straight. It's not acceptable to go 1-7, but they have played 5 of their first 8 games not the road and their 3 at home were against likely playoff teams in the Heat, Raptors and Thunder. They also have 3 losses by 4-points or less. 

Simply put, it's not as bad as people are making it. I'm confident this team will get it figured out and I'm willing to bet it happens at home today against the Knicks. New York has played well at times and are off a nice 118-106 win at Dallas, but the Knicks aren't a playoff team. They are 3-6 on the season and I just don't see them being able to match the intensity of a desperate Wizards team that I believe will treat this like a must-win. Take Washington! 

5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills +

The public perception couldn't be any worse on the Bills right now. No one wants anything to do with backing Buffalo, especially given that Nathan Peterman is expected to start. I get it, but there's just too much value here with the Bills as a double-digit home dog. 

Chicago's a good team, but they aren't the Patriots and shouldn't be laying this many points on the road, especially with their limitations offensively and how strong Buffalo is on the defensive side of the ball. It was a bit of a fluke the Bills didn't cover the 13.5-point spread agains the Patriots. I not only think they will cover this big number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. 

I know there's talk out there about the Bears not looking past the Bills, but that's easier said than done, especially with two big division home games on deck. I think the difference here will be Buffalo's defense taking away Chicago's running game and making Trubisky beat them. 

Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game at home and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game  where they gained 6 or more yards/play. Take Buffalo! 

5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin -

I got no problem here laying the big number on the Badgers at home. Wisconsin will have zero problem here winning by more than the spread against a horrible Rutgers team. The Badgers come into this one off a 31-17 loss at Northwestern, which really put them behind the 8-ball in the Big Ten West, but they still aren't out of it. 

Either way, Wisconsin isn't a team to lay down when things aren't going their way. If anything, the Badgers are going to be that much more locked in for this Saturday's game and that's bad news for a Rutgers team that's 0-5 in conference play and haven't won since beating Texas State at home in their season opener. 

I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because Rutgers only lost by 3-points at home to Northwestern in their last game and they are off a bye. I look more at how this team lost by by 49 at Ohio State this season and that's not their only bad showing on the road. They lost by 41 at Kansas and by 27 at Maryland. 

Rutgers is getting outscored by an average of 35 ppg on the road (47-8) and Wisconsin is beating teams by an average of 21 (38-17) at home. It's also worth noting that the Scarlet Knights haven't scored more than 17 points in their last 7 games. I don't think they get to that mark and the Badgers should be pushing 50. Take Wisconsin! 

5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills +

We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it. 

There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago. 

The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been. 

I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! 

5* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Heat -

Great spot here to fade the Kings on the road. Sacramento is off back-to-back upset wins at home, as they defeated Memphis 97-92 as a 3-point dog and the Wizards 116-112 as a 5-point dog.

I think it has the Kings getting a little too much respect here against a Heat team that is off back-to-back impressive wins at home. Miami crushed the Knicks at home 110-87 and then followed that up with a 120-111 win over Portland. Long way for Sacramento to travel to open up their road trip and I look for them to come out a bit flat. 

That should be more than enough for the Heat to win here by double-digits. Kings are just 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Sacramento has also struggled on the boards and the Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs a team that is getting out-rebounded by 3+ boards per game. Take Miami! 

5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +

I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium. 

Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here."

Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6. 

Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

Milwaukee has started out the 2018-19 season 5-0 and I look for them to stay undefeated with a comfortable win at home against the Magic. Each of the last 4 wins for the Bucks have come by at least 9 points, including a 30-point blowout win at Minnesota last night. 

I just don't think Orlando has the talent to keep this one close. Not a big deal here that Milwaukee is playing on no rest with how easy the win was last night against the Timberwolves. I would be more concerned about the Magic showing up, as they hit the road for the 3rd time in the last week and are just 1-day of rest. 

Orlando is a mere 4-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing a top tier offensive team like Milwaukee, who are averaging 110 or more points/game. Magic are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 when playing on 1 day of rest, while the Bucks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 25 on 0 days of rest. Take Milwaukee! 

5* Wyoming/Colorado St MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State -

Colorado State is going to have no problem at all covering this small spread at home against Wyoming on Friday night. The Cowboys are just 1-6 since that 29-7 win at New Mexico State to open the season back in August. 

They have lost 4 straight and are off a close home loss to Utah State as a 13-point dog. Covering against the Aggies looks great, but this team has no business being basically a pick'em on the road with that offense. 

Wyoming is 129th in the country, averaging a mere 15.5 ppg. They are 88th in rushing (150.1 ypg) and 122nd in passing (138.3 ypg). They only scored 13 points against Hawaii and a mere 17 against Wofford. They haven't scored more than 20 in 7 straight games.

The defense is good for Wyoming, but I look for them to struggle here on the road against a capable Colorado State offense, especially playing on short rest off that physical game against Utah State. Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Take Colorado State! 

5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Jags - 

This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. 

The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston. 

I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team. 

I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NBA Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Hornets +

I really like what I have seen from Charlotte to start this new season. The Hornets lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bucks 113-112 on Wednesday, but followed that up with a 120-88 blowout win at Orlando. Charlotte is really pushing the pace this year and are shooting lights out from deep, as they come in averaging 16 made 3-pointers and are shooting 43.4% from long distance. 

Miami lost to the Magic on the road in their opener Wednesday and squeaked out a win at Washington on Thursday. The Heat are playing short-handed to start the new season, as Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Dion Waiters are all out with injuries. I just don't think Miami will have enough gas in the tank to keep up with Charlotte and all we need is for the Hornets to lose by 4 or less. 

Hornets are 24-8 in their last 32 road games after playing a game where they led by 15 or more points at the half. Miami has failed to cover 6 of their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State -

Game Day is headed to Pullman for the first time and it's going to be nuts at Martin Stadium Saturday night when the No. 25 Cougars host No. 12 Oregon. I think that atmosphere combined with how great a spot this is for Washington State and how tough a spot this is for the Ducks, really gives the Cougars the upper hand. 

Washington State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon has to be running on fumes after their overtime win against No. 7 Washington. I know the Cougars haven't played some of the top teams in the country, but they have an impressive win at home over a really good Utah team and more than held their own on the road against USC in a prime time game. 

Offensively, both teams can put up point sin a hurry, as both come in averaging over 40 ppg and 480 ypg. Both teams are also strong defensively, though I would definitely give the edge to the Cougars playing at home and having had those two full weeks of practice to prepare for this Ducks' offensive attack. 

Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 2 or more games in a row and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Washington State! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies -

Great spot to jump on the Grizzlies at home off that ugly loss in their season opener on the road to the Pacers. Indiana is one of the top teams in the east and Memphis simply didn't match their intensity. They also shot about as bad as an NBA team can, going just 25 of 84 (29.8%) from the field. 

I expect the shots to fall at home against a Hawks team that just doesn't have a lot of talent and will certainly struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta gave up 126 points to the Knicks, who are without their best player in Porzingis. 

This is a much-improved Memphis team, as they have a healthy Mike Conley at the points and one of the top big men in the game in Marc Gasol. The Hawks are going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA and will simply be no match for the Grizzlies on the road. Take Memphis!