Sports Picks & Predictions

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FC Copenhagen (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the Round of 16 Knockout Stage in the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: FC Copenhagen had won two matches in a row before their 2-0 loss at Midtjylland on Friday. Manchester City continued their unbeaten run in their last 19 matches across all competitions with their 3-1 victory against Manchester United on Sunday. Man City on the first leg of this Round of 16 matchup on the road with a 3-1 victory on February 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City is in complete control of this matchup with a two-goal lead back at home at their Etihad Stadium. With a massive showdown with Liverpool looming this weekend in the English Premier League, manager Pep Guardiola is resting many of his key starters. Granted, scoring machine Erling Harland is in the confirmed starting XI posted at 2 PM ET — but I suspect he will get subbed out early in the second half if the match is in hand. But Haaland’s best support out of the midfield in the Citizens’ attack is on the bench today. Kevin DeBruyne, Bernardo Silva, and Phil Foden are all getting the match off (unless something goes wrong early in this contest — unlikely with them at home). Coincidentally, those three were the three goal-scorers in the first leg against Copenhagen. Guardiola declared Foden the best player in the EPL currently after his two goals scored on Sunday against rival Man United. Steady as she goes for this squad — they have scored 17 goals in their eight EPL matches since the beginning of January but that is below a 3.0 Goals-Per-Game pace despite playing mostly at full strength. Man City is playing better defensively as they have allowed only six goals in those eight EPL matches. Furthermore, they have given up only 12 goals in their 14 home matches in league play. Three of their last four matches at home have not seen more than three combined goals. FC Copenhagen was rusty in the first leg having not played a competitive match since December due to the unique schedule in Denmark where they compete in The Athletic Cup which are glorified friendlies. In their three matches in the Dutch Superliga since the first leg with Man City, they have two clean sheets. Their inability to score against the first-place Midtjylland on Friday is not a good sign regarding their attack. Manager Jacob Neestrup’s squad is also dealing with several injuries impacting their attacking prowess. Regular starting attacking midfielders Lukas Lerager and Viktor Claesson are both injured and dodged not take the trip. Oscar Hojlund is also a doubt to take the pitch with an injury leaving Neestrup perhaps without the exciting 19-year-old attacking midfielder. Copenhagen is comfortable playing a low-block defensive structure — and Neestrup may prefer this approach just to stop the bleeding against the mighty Man City. Copenhagen pulled off a 0-0 draw at Bayern Munich in the Group Stage of this tournament — and they held the Bavarians to below 1.0 expected goals in both Group Stage matches. Additionally, four of their six Group Stage matches saw less than four combined goals scored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams were in the same Champions League group last season — and their first leg match finished in a 0-0 draw (before Man City smashed them in the second match by a 5-0 score). But I look to the 2022 Round of 16 regarding Guardiola’s likely approach to this match. After a 5-0 thrashing against Sporting in the first leg go that competition,  the second leg was a scoreless 0-0 draw with Man City easily advancing but Guardiola taking this easy with his possession-based tactics. Look for a likely Man City clean sheet with not more than three goals scored given the starting XI rotation. 20* UCL FC Copenhagen-Man City CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between FC Copenhagen (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200025) and Brentford (200026). THE SITUATION: Man City (W14-D4-L3) has won four straight matches in the English Premier League after their 3-1 victory against Burnley last Wednesday. Brentford (W6-D4-L11) has only one victory in their last 11 matches across all competitions after their 3-2 loss at Tottenham last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City will be as close to full strength in their offensive attack as they have all season now that Kevin DeBruyne has returned to action after missing the first half of the season. Manager Pep Guardiola is also likely to reinsert striker Erling Harland in his starting XI after he returned from his leg injury last week to come off the bench. As it is, the Cityzens have scored two more goals in 10 of their last 11 matches across all competitions. They have also scored 13 combined goals in their last five matches on the road across all competitions. But their defense has been shaky — while they have won three straight EPL matches on the road, they have fallen behind in all three contests. Both Ederson as their primary goalkeeper and Ruben Dias at center-back seem to be declining in their skillset. After holding their opponents to 0.80 expected Goals Allowed (xGA) per 90 minutes in EPL play last season, they are surrendering 0.98 xGA per 90 minutes in league play this year. They have only one clean sheet in their last 11 EPL matches. Now they face a Brentford side that has scored eight combined goals in their last three matches across all competitions. Striker Ivan Toney has been injured for the Foxes — but he has scored two goals in his two matches since his return to the pitch. Toney has also scored in four straight matches at home. He is complemented up front by Neal Maupay has scored a goal in each of Brentford’s matches last month. While Brentford has scored only 31 goals in their 21 EPL matches, they should be seeing more production given their expected goals (xG) of 38.31. Since the beginning of November, the Foxes have registered 1.52 xG per 90 minutes. They lead the EPL in final third entry to box entry rate — and they rank sixth in the league in expected Threat rate and xG from set pieces. But Brentford struggles with their defense as they have not registered a clean sheet in EPL play since October 28th when they blanked Chelsea. When playing at home, they rank 12th in the league by allowing 16.22 xGA in their 11 matches while ranking 18th by surrendering 20 goals. The Foxes have scored eight goals in their last four home matches in EPL — but they have surrendered nine goals in those four contests.

FINAL TAKE: Brentford swept both matches against Man City last season — they scored three goals and registered 2.6 xG in those two contests. The Foxes have seen four or more combined goals scored in four straight EPL matches — and the Cityzens have seen four or more combined goals scored in four of their last 5 EPL contests. 10* EPL Man City-Brentford USA Network O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200025) and Brentford (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358) in the consolation third-place match in the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Australia (W3-D2-L1) comes off a 3-1 loss to England in their Semifinal match in this tournament on Wednesday morning. Sweden (W4-D1-L1)      lost to Spain in a 2-1 heartbreaker in their Semifinals match Tuesday morning. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Brisbane Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia will be highly motivated to win this match in front of their rabid home fans who have wildly supported their team in this tournament. While reaching the finals would have capped a magical run, winning the third-place bronze trophy will be very rewarding to manager Tony Gustavsson’s team while representing their best finish in a World Cup, men or women. Gustavsson also has his star player back in the mix with Sam Kerr back on the pitch. After missing most of this World Cup, she returned in the match against England and scored their lone goal in the 63rd minute. Kerr’s supporters can make a compelling case that she is the best women’s player in the world. She jumpstarts a Matildas’ attack that scores 10 goals in their six matches. With Kerr back and the excitement of the home crowd, I expect Australia to play aggressively on the front foot. They scored four times with a potent 2.6 expected goals (xG) mark against a quality Canadian team in the Group Stage that won the Gold Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Matildas generated at least 1.1 xG in all six of their matches in this event. But Australia can leaky with their defense. After Kerr evened the score at 1-1, they then conceded two goals in the next 18 minutes to let that game slip out of their hands. While they had four clean sheets overall, the three goals they let Nigeria score against them illustrates their vulnerability in the back end. Sweden is a team that is comfortable in adapting their tactics to their opponent. They outlasted the United States in the shootout in the Round of 16 after 120 minutes of scoreless play. But after Spain broke the scoreless deadlock in the 81st minute in the Semifinals, they pressed the accelerator to even the score seven minutes later — all before conceding the game-winning goal to La Roja two minutes later. Sweden has generated at least 2.0 xG in four of their six matches including against a very good Japanese side. But they allowed 1.2 xG in four of their six matches — and the US, Japan, and Spain combined to create 4.6 expected goals against them in their three Knockout Stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: Consolation matches tend to be higher-scoring affairs since there is not as much pressure regarding winning or losing the match. Parking the bus in the attempt to grind out a third-place trophy is no fun for anyone. In the eight third-place matches in the Women’s World Cup, five of these contests saw three or more combined goals. Sweden will be playing in their fourth third-place match at a Women’s World Cup — but they have won all three of those matches while scoring a combined nine goals in those contests. Manager Peter Gerhardsson intends to keep his same starting XI — so it will be their A-team facing an energized Australian side. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 AM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup with a 0-0 draw with Ireland on Monday. England (W3-D0-L0) completed a sweep of their three Group Stage opponents with their 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Brisbane Stadium in Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England enters this match with an overrated offensive attack that looks more impressive after scoring six times against China. They scored in the fourth minute of that match which changed the complexion of the contest since China needed a victory to advance to the Knockout Stage — so they had to play more aggressively which contributed to the blowout. The Lionesses only registered 2.6 expected goals in that match so they significantly overperformed the underlying metrics. England only scored one goal apiece in their first two matches at this event — and their 6.3 expected goals are just the ninth most in the tournament. The Lionesses are dealing with several injuries with striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby out with injuries before the World Cup started. Keira Walsh is dealing with a knee that leaves her in doubt to play this morning. They are far from full strength in their attack. Frankly, this England side is probably a bit overvalued right now on the heels of winning the Euro Championship last summer. Not only did the Lionesses have the benefit of home-field advantage in hosting the event but they were fortunate in several of their matches after losing the expected goals battle. But England has been dominant on defense despite playing without their best defender, Leah Williamson. The penalty kick goal China scored is the only goal they have allowed. Their 0.9 expected goals China managed is the most an opponent has generated in this event — and their total expected goals allowed is just 1.9 xGA. They face a dangerous opponent in Nigeria who is a disciplined underdog that will be content in giving up possession while limiting high-quality scoring opportunities. Despite allowing the fourth most touches of the 16 teams in the Knockout Stage, they rank fifth in the tournament by limiting their opponents on target to just 22.9% of their shot attempts. In their scoreless draw with Ireland, they held the Irish women to just 0.5 expected goals while managing only 1.1 expected goals themselves. The Super Falcons have scored only three goals in this tournament while registering just 3.0 expected goals. But they have allowed only two goals with an xGA of just 4.1.

FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has played two matches to scoreless draws with their 0-0 draw with Canada perhaps being most telling since the Canadians are one of the best teams in the world who won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. Nigeria survived perhaps the toughest group in this tournament that included host nation Australia as well as a disappointed Canada squad that did not advance along with a feisty Ireland side. I considered the Super Falcons plus the +1.5 goals but concluded the Under was the preferred option given the strength of England’s defense (I think a 2-0 England win is more likely than a 2-1 win for the Lionesses). 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY AM, 8/6:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday morning is with Under the Total in the Round of 16 match between the United States and Sweden in the Women’s World Cup. The United States (W1-D2-L0) have only scored once in their last two matches after a 0-0 draw with Portugal in their final Group Stage match on Tuesday. They have only scored four times in this tournament with an average of one goal per 15.5 shots attempts. But while the scoring attack is being loudly criticized, the Stars and Stripes may be playing the best defense in the entire World Cup with just one goal conceded on only one shot on target and a mere 11 shots allowed overall in their three matches. Sweden (W3-D0-L0) is a defense-first club that is very content in using their 4-2-3-1 formation to muck matches up while playing at a slow pace. The Blue and Yellow have only allowed one goal in their three matches after blanking Argentina, 3-0, on Wednesday. They are playing a stifling defense that has limited their three Group Stage opponents to seeing just 25.9% of their shots finish on target. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 10 of 16 (63%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays which has continued his 167 of 273 (61%) All-Sports mark since March 9th! Frank DELIVERED his 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year last month with the Mexico-Panama Under — and now he furthers his 11 of 18 (61%) Soccer run with the USA-Sweden goal-line winner on Fox-TV early Sunday morning at 5 AM ET! WATCH & WIN (maybe on the DVR) — and BANK on Frank!

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126) in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Panama (W3-D2-L0) reached the championship match of the Gold Cup on Wednesday by beating the United States in penalty kicks (5-4) after their semifinals match remained deadlocked at 1-1 after extra time. Mexico (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of this tournament with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Wednesday. This match is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico has found their mojo again under manager Jaime Lozano who took over for  Diego Cocca after El Tri got trounced by the United States by a 3-0 score in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League last month. The improved play has started with their defense as they have allowed only two goals in their five matches — and one of those conceded goals was against Qatar when they were playing with a rotated starting XI in the final group stage match with the luxury of having first place in their group all but wrapped up. Mexico has held their opponents to just 30 shots in this tournament — an average of just six per match. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) has been only 1.5 goals. Their veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa has registered three clean sheets. El Tri did score an impressive three goals against a strong Jamaican side but the game script of that match quickly tilted in their favor when they scored in the first two minutes. The Reggae Boyz were forced out of their preferred defensive posture playing catchup for the entire match. Panama has been deceptively strong on the defensive side of the pitch with four of the five goals they have allowed taking place after the 90th-minute mark. The lone goal the United States scored against them was at the 105th-minute mark after the match remained scoreless after the 90 minutes of regulation time.

FINAL TAKE: Panama has been blanked in four of their last five matches against Mexico — they have scored just once in those previous five encounters. Los Canaleros will engage in a defensive posture hoping to force extra time as they did against the Americans. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W17-D6-L14) closes out their season coming off a 3-1 loss to Brentford last Saturday. Leeds United (W7-D10-L20) is winless in their last eight matches after a 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a wild affair with both teams having things still at stake. Tottenham needs a win to qualify for European competition next season — although they can still qualify with a draw and some help). The Hotspurs are not playing well under new manager Ryan Mason. They are winless in their last nine matches on the road. They have conceded five combined goals in their last five matches with shaky play from their backline. They are also playing without their world-class keeper Hugo Lloris — Fraser Forster is a downgrade at the position. Tottenham has only one clean sheet in their last 11 contests across all competitions. But they have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in the English Premier League. With this potentially being Harry Kane’s last match with the team given the rumors that he will move on in the summer transfer window, he will be motivated to go out with a bang for his longtime club. He has a very appetizing opponent in Leeds United who are the worst defensive side in the EPL. The Whites have allowed 74 goals this season, the most in the league. More than 33% of the shots they are giving up are on target — so Kane and company should have plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. Leeds has allowed two or more goals in four straight matches and seven of their last eight contests. They have not generated a clean sheet in 14 straight matches. But the Whites have scored a healthy 47 times with their aggressive style of play in the EPL — and they have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Leeds have seen four or more combined goals scored in three of their last four matches. And they will be playing with desperation this morning since they must win this match to avoid relegation while getting some help in the results from some other matches.

FINAL TAKE: The final day in the EPL tends to see higher-scoring matches — and that will likely be the case in this one with two struggling defensive sides engaged in a contest with both teams needing to get a win. The reverse fixture between these teams resulted in a 4-3 win for Tottenham at home on November 12th. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg of this semifinals last Tuesday. Manchester City hosts the second leg at the Etihad.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti instructed his team to play conservatively and with caution in the first leg between these teams — and after Vinicius Junior scored the opening goal at the 36th-minute mark, this directive was even more imperative. Los Blancos do not have the same level of talent as Manchester City — but the reigning Champions League champions have plenty of star power to pull out a close match in the second leg. Real Madrid only generated 0.89 expected goals — but they executed what Ancelotti wanted by limiting the Sky Blues to just 0.37 expected goals. But Man City was able to settle for the draw when Kevin DeBruyne evened the score in the 67th minute. So it is now winner take all back at the Etihad. Los Blancos followed that match up on Saturday with a 1-0 win at home against Getafe in La Liga action. They have now scored in 16 straight matches across all competitions. They have also scored 26 goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League this season for a robust 2.36 Goals-Per-Game average. But the defensive play for Real Madrid has not been nearly as stout when playing away from home this year. In five home matches against upper-tier competition, Los Blancos held Liverpool, Chelsea RB Leipzig, Barcelona, and Real Sociedad to a combined 4.4 expected goals. But when playing on the road against those five sides, Real Madrid conceded a combined 9.5 expected goals (xG) with Liverpool accumulating 2.2 xG, Chelsea, RP Leipzig, and Barcelona all generating 1.9 xG, and Read Sociedad registering 1.9 xG. Now Los Blancos have to try to again slow down what is probably the best-attacking team in the world in this Cityzens group. Man City has scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches across all competitions after their 3-0 win at Everton on Sunday. They matched Real Madrid’s 26 goals in 11 Champions League competitions this season. Manager Pep Guardiola may have been comfortable with the conservative tactics that Ancelotti deployed last week knowing they had the advantage of the second leg being back at the Etihad. Man City has won 15 straight matches at home while scoring two or more goals in 14 of those contests. With the addition of Erling Haaland this season, Guardiola has his first world-class number-nine striker at the top of the pitch for the first time since Sergio Aguero from several seasons ago. Haaland has been a goal-scoring machine for this team with 36 goals across 33 matches in all competitions for the Sky Blues this season. But the defense has been an issue with this team. Ederson did get the clean sheet shutout on Sunday — but that was the first time he had not conceded in his last matches across all competitions. The team's two previous clean sheets were with backup keeper Stefan Ortega getting the spot start. Guardiola will not have Nathan Ake available for this match as he recovers from injury.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown of European superpowers is a rematch of the Champions League semifinals last year. In the first leg at the Etihad, Man City won by a 4-3 score in what was a wild up-and-down affair. And after scoring first in the second leg in Madrid, the Cityzens thought they were in control before Karim Benzema put his team on his back with Real Madrid scoring three late goals to steal a 6-5 aggregate score victory. Benzema exposed a shaky Man City defense against counterattacks — and he is ready to make noise again with the help of a rapidly improving Junior. But Haaland was signed in the summer to a big contract for precisely this moment. The low scoring in the first leg was the outlier between these two teams. The urgency of this tied second leg will lead to aggressive play, fireworks, and plenty of goals (one way or another) given the counter-attacking prowess of both sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200113) and Aston Villa (200114). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W4-D5-L8 ) has two straight draws in the English Premier League after their 2-2 result with West Ham United back on January 4th. Aston Villa (W6-D4-L8) comes off a 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton on January 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds United is winless in their last six matches across all competitions after a 2-2 draw at Cardiff City in their FA Cup match last Sunday. The Whites have conceded at least one goal in nine of their last ten matches on the road in all competitions. Leeds United was bleeding away too many goals under previous manager Marcelo Bielsa but it has been more of the same this season under manager Jesse Marsch. The Whites have conceded 31 goals this season which is the second most in the EPL — and their 30.52 expected goals allowed (xGA) is the third most in the league. Leeds has been solid in the scoring department, however, as their 25 goals this season in league play are 11th in the EPL — and their 23.57 expected goals (xG) is the tenth-highest mark. Aston Villa comes off a disappointing 2-1 loss at home to Stevenage last Sunday in a match that eliminated them from the FA Cup. New manager Unai Emery deployed a heavily-rotated starting XI for that contest — so the regulars should be rested and ready for this match. Emery has implemented a two-striker system up top that has been more efficient for their scoring attack. After a scoring drought under previous manager Steven Gerrard which culminated in two straight blanks in EPL play, the Villans have scored 13 goals in their seven league matches under Emery while only getting blanked once. In their last nine home matches, Aston Villa has scored in eight of those contests. But they have conceded goals in six of their last seven home matches across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a scoreless 0-0 draw at Leeds United on October 2nd in the reverse league fixture — but that was when Gerrard was still managing the Villans. Aston Villa has seen multiple goals in three of their last four matches across all competitions — and there have been three or more combined goals scored in 10 of their last 14 matches across all competitions including six of their last eight in the EPL. Leeds United has seen three or more combined goals scored in 10 of their last 12 matches across all competitions — and there have been four or more combined goals scored in four of their last five matches. 10* EPL Friday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200113) and Aston Villa (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200109) and Fulham (200110). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W7-D4-L6) has lost four of their last six matches in the English Premier League after their 1-0 loss at home to Manchester City last Thursday. Fulham (W8-D4-L6 ) has won four matches in a row across all competitions with their 1-0 victory at Leicester City back on Tuesday of last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Fulham enters this match having won four games in a row across all competitions. With their victory against Leicester City last week, they climbed to 7th place in the English Premier League table. But, unfortunately for the Cottagers, striker Alexsandar Mitrovic incurred his fifth yellow card of the season in the match against the Foxes which will leave him suspended for this match due to the accumulated yellow cards. In their three previous EPL matches this season without Mitrovic on the pitch, Fulham has scored just one goal. The Cottagers will continue to play cautiously without Mitrovic — they registered their second straight clean sheet and third in their last four matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Hull City in the fourth round of the FA Cup last Saturday. Chelsea is reeling with five losses in their last seven matches across all competitions after a 4-0 loss at Manchester City on Sunday in the FA Cup. The Blues are dealing with a host of injuries which has compounded a fundamental roster problem that led to manager Thomas Tuchel getting fired in late September. New manager Graham Potter has brought his counter-attacking approach that was successful with Brighton and Hove Albion — but the Chelsea attack remains lacking. The Blues have not scored more than three goals in an EPL match all season. Furthermore, they have been blanked in two straight matches while scoring just three times in their last eight matches across all competitions. Injuries to Raheem Sterling and Christian Pulisic along with wingers like Reese James and Ben Chilwell have left the attack limited. Chelsea has only scored 20 goals in their 17 EPL matches and seven of those goals come from players currently out with injury. But the Blues are still playing solid defense for Potter as they have given up just three combined goals in their last five EPL contests.

FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, this match shapes up to be cagey and cautious for both sides. Chelsea will try to outlast the Cottagers playing on the road at Craven Cottage. Fulham still appreciates they are hosting a Big Six side with high-priced talent and probably still a better overall roster. Expect a lower-scoring match. 10* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200109) and Fulham (200110). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 10:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062) in the Finals of the Men’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: France (W5-D0-L1) advances to the Finals of the World Cup with their 2-0 victory against Morocco on Wednesday. Argentina (W5-D0-L1) reached the Finals the day before with their 3-0 victory against Croatia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: France has been the highest-scoring side in this competition with 13 goals scored. The deeper metrics confirm the scoring prowess of Les Bleus with 13.1 expected goals. In their victory against Morocco, they posted 2.25 xG even against a defensive side. Led by Kylian Mbappe who has scored five goals in this event, this team has probably the best player in the world right now. But the continuing concern for manager Didier Deschamps has been the shaky play of his back line. France has conceded at least one goal in five of their six matches. Overall, Les Bleus have allowed five goals — and the expected goals they have allowed in this tournament suggest it should be even worse with their 7.37 xGA mark. In their last three matches in the Knockout Stage, France has allowed 6.03 xGA with all three of these opponents reaching 1.43 xGA or higher. To compound matters, the “air conditioning” bug that has been spreading in Qatar — blamed on the constant air conditioning blasting throughout the city for this world event — has impacted the Les Bleus locker room with defenders Raphael Varane and Ibrahima Konate under the weather. Varane, at least, should still play — but it is a worry if he is not at 100% overcoming a flu bug. Argentina has been dynamic in their scoring attack with 12 goals scored in this tournament — and their xG is 13.72. They generated 3.19 xG in their victory against the stout defense of Croatia. La Albiceleste has scored two or more goals in five straight games. This has been a breakout tournament for Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez. But the straw that stirs the drink remains Lionel Messi who has been outstanding in the pursuit of his first World Cup title to put the bow on his illustrious career. Messi has scored five goals himself in this event — and he is playing to cement his status as the Greatest Of All Time in this match. But Le Albiceleste is not strong with their fullbacks — and they have surrendered leads too often in this tournament.

FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey affairs that usually are lower-scoring matches — and that is how this match should initially play out. But if and when a team scores the first goal, this contest should open up. France is a counter-attacking side — so expect Argentina to control possession. With the Mbappe versus Messi narrative involved in this match along with two shaky defenses, expect a higher-scoring contest. 25* World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W8-D11-L18) needs a result to potentially pass Burnley to avoid relegation after settling for a 1-1 draw at home against Brighton and Hove Albion last Sunday. Brentford (W13-D7-L17) has won seven of their last ten matches after their 3-2 win at Everton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds has to play aggressively in this match — they trail Burnley by 13 goals in the differential department so they have to assume they need to register a victory to secure the three points since a draw by the Clarets at home against Newcastle would mean a draw in this match would not be enough for the Peacocks. The Whites did generate 2.37 expected goals (xG) against the Seagulls last week — but they surrendered 2.05 xG in the draw. Leeds is one of the worst defensive teams in the English Premier League. They have conceded the most Big Chances that have scoring likelihood of at least 35%. They have conceded 10 goals in their last four matches.  On the road, the Peacocks have allowed at least two goals in six of their last nine contests. They have allowed 2.05 expected goals allowed (xGA) in their 18 previous road matches. Brentford’s attack has been elevated since Christian Eriksen became a regular on the pitch. In those ten matches, the Bees have scored 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they rank fourth in Big Chances created during that stretch. Their xG of 1.99 in those ten matches suggests their improved scoring prowess is likely to be sustainable. In their last two matches, Brentford has scored six times with an xG of 5.20.

FINAL TAKE: In the reverse fixture at Leeds on December 5th, both teams scored twice in the 2-2 draw. Expect another higher-scoring contest with Leeds United desperate for the victory which should create scoring opportunities for Brentford in the counter-attack. The Bees will want to play hard in front of their home fans in their final home match in their first season back promoted in the English top flight. They also have a chance to finish in the top-ten with a result. 25* EPL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D8-L2) returns to their English Premier League schedule after beating Aston Villa by a 2-1 score last Tuesday. Southampton (W9-D13-L14) has lost seven of their last ten matches after their 3-0 loss at Brentford back on May 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool comes off a 1-0 victory against Chelsea in the finals of the FA Cup on Saturday that was resolved via a shootout after 120 minutes of scoreless play. Mo Salah and Virgil Van Dijk left that match early with injuries that keeps them off the eligible roster for this match. Manager Jurgen Klopp has dug deep to his bench for this match — and the result is a starting XI that lacks many of their top attackers. Sadio Mane is also not playing — and their winter transfer, Luis Diaz, is on the bench. The top two attackers are Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino in the starting XI, but both are both limited. Jota is a poacher who has had success when joining Salah and Mane up top — but he is not a lead dog as he demonstrated in his time with Wolverhampton. Firmino appears past his prime for the last two seasons and has scored only nine goals this year. The Reds will also not have Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andre Robertson who play important roles in the attack on the wing. And because Klopp is relying on backups for his back line, expect a more cautious approach. Liverpool needs the win, not a blowout. Southampton only generated 1.32 expected goals in their loss to Brentford ten days ago. While the Saints have little to play for as they sit in 15th place in the EPL table but safe from relegation, don’t be surprised if they relish the opportunity to play spoiler and ruin Liverpool’s title aspirations. After Manchester City’s 2-2 draw at West Ham over the weekend, a Reds victory pulls them within one point with one match to go of the Cityzens. Southampton upset Liverpool at home last year by a 1-0 score — and they limited the Reds to just 1.35 expected goals despite Salah and company being on the pitch. But the Saints have scored only one goal in their last two matches and only four goals in their last six matches. They are not likely to score more than once in this match even against the B-team that Liverpool is sending out.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has seen six of their last seven matches accrue three or less combined goals — and Southampton has seen four of their last five matches generate three combined goals or less. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of this semifinals showdown with a 4-3 victory at home at Etihad Stadium last Tuesday. Real Madrid hosts this rematch at their Santiago Bernabeu Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is in potent offensive form with all of their attackers healthy and contributing. The Cityzens come off a 4-0 victory at Leeds United in the English Premier League on Saturday. Man City has scored 16 goals during their current four-game winning streak across all competitions. Manager Pep Guardiola deploys many starting XI lineups that lack a traditional number striker — and they still score plenty of goals with effective midfielders like Kevin DeBruyne, Phil Foden, and Raheem Sterling. But what has helped the Cityzens in this recent surge is the sudden great form of one of the true number nines on the roster in Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian has scored seven goals in his last five starts to offer this side the finisher up top that may be the final piece of the puzzle Guardiola needs to pull off the double of winning a Champions League and the EPL title. Jesus loves playing against Real Madrid — he has three goals with an assist in his three career matches against them. But while the attack is clicking on all cylinders, the Man City defense is not playing at its most optimal level. After Leeds United generated 1.06 expected goals (xG), the Cityzens have allowed four of their last seven opponents to produce at least 1.0 xG — and that does not include the 3-2 loss to Liverpool in the Semifinals of the FA Cup (where expected goals data is not tracked). Guardiola is dealing with an injured backline that is missing John Stones while Kyle Walker and Nathan Are are dealing with knocks. He will have to turn to Oleksandr Zinchenko at right-back who has been a liability on defense in the past. Joao Cancelo returns to the pitch after being suspended for the first match — and while he is a great defender, he also provides the Cityzens a threat in the attack. Real Madrid has won three of their last four matches after a 4-0 victory against Espanyol on Saturday. Los Blancos have scored 13 goals in their last four matches — but they have allowed six goals as well over that span. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is also dealing with injuries on his backline with David Alaba dealing with a knock. He may be available today but he has yet to return to training. The hopes of this Real Madrid side rest on the shoulders of attacker Karim Benzema who is on fire right now. Benzema scored twice in the first leg last week — and he leads all players in the Champions League with 14 goals in the competition. Los Blancos have scored at least one goal in every one of their home matches in the Champions League going back to December of 2018 — and they have to beat the Cityzens by one goal to force extra time to advance to the Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: The pace was frenetic in the first meeting between these sides last week with Man City generating 3.08 xG and Real Madrid countering with 1.66 xG. Los Blancos have a -4.43 net expected goals differential in their last four matches in the Champions League — but be careful reading too much into that. With elite players like Benzema, Vinicius Junior, and Luka Modric, they have the talent that literally produces the positive outlier results from which expected goals data measuring league-wide averages derive. It’s kinda like expecting the Golden State Warriors to stop overperforming relative to the league (last night being an exception) with their 3-point shooting — the Regression Gods are not coming for the players that set the standard from which other player’s expected regression is measured. Another higher-scoring contest is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Atletico Madrid (224201) and Manchester City (224202) in the first leg of their Quarterfinals match in the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid enters this match on a six-game winning streak after their 4-1 victory against Alaves in La Liga on Saturday. Manchester City has won two straight matches after their 2-0 win at Burnley in the English Premier League on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atletico Madrid advanced to the Quarterfinals of this event with a 1-0 victory at Manchester United on March 15th which secured a 2-1 aggregate win against the Red Devils. Los Colchoneros was underperforming on the defensive end of the pitch for much of the season — especially in their domestic Spanish competition — but they have regained the fierce defensive form that is typical for manager Diego Simeone’s teams. Atletico Madrid held Man United to just 1.5 expected goals (xGA) and only two Big Chances (as defined as having a 35% or better chance of scoring) in both matches. During their six-game winning streak across all competitions, the Red and Whites have allowed only three goals. They have given up nine goals in their last five matches against teams playing in this competition (in Champions League or La Line matches), but their xGA is just 5.4 during that span of contests. But the Atletico Madrid attack is not overwhelming — they have generated only 9.5 expected goals (xG) in their eight Champions League matches which is the lowest mark for the remaining eight teams. Man City has allowed only one goal in their last four matches. But they have scored more than two goals in those four contests just once — and they blanked twice. They have just seven goals in their last five matches in the EPL of UEFA Champions League. An injury to Ruben Dias on the backline may have manager Pep Guardiola embracing a more conservative approach since that potentially exposes a weak link for the team. Man City leads the EPL with the fewest goals allowed and the lowest xGA — they are an excellent defensive side.

FINAL TAKE: The 4-4-2 that Simeone deploys is very difficult to break down when Atletico Madrid has their defensive cohesion — as they do now. Furthermore, the elimination of the road-goals tie-breaker in this competition has removed the incentive for the road team to play with more aggression in these first legs. Don’t be surprised if Simeone has his park the proverbial bus with ten men in the back with the hopes of escaping with a 0-0 draw which would bring this competition back to Madrid in very good shape. Even if Man City scores, Los Colchoneros are unlikely to open up since they do not want the match to get out of hand before they host the reverse fixture. And with Dias still out, I expect Guardiola to embrace conservative tactics as well. 10* UEFA Champions League Tuesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between Atletico Madrid (224201) and Manchester City (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the first leg of the Round of 16 matches in the UEFA Champions League knockout stage. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Villarreal on Saturday in La Liga action. Paris Saint-Germain last played on Friday in a 1-0 victory at home against Rennes in a Ligue 1 domestic match.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Expect the respective offensive attacks to be on display in this heavyweight showdown between European powers who both reached the semifinals of this tournament last year. Star power will be all over the pitch in this match — but this talent has been masking less-than-elite tactics on the defensive side of the pitch. PSG defensive numbers have improved lately — and they have only allowed one goal on with just 1.4 expected goals (xGA) in their last two matches. But those contests were in Ligue 1 play and the quality of competition in the French top flight is not nearly the same as it is in the other top European leagues. Les Parisiens’ defensive numbers in that league are probably overstated. While they have conceded 19 goals in Ligue 1, their xGA rises to a 22.50 mark. The defensive results in the Group Stage of the Champions League are likely more reflective of what to expect from manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side. PSG allowed eight goals in their six Group Stage matches — and their xGA was even worse at a 10.7 clip. They only registered a clean sheet once in those six contests (surprisingly against Man City who did generate 1.90 xG but still somehow got blanked). To make matters worse for Pochettino, he will not have center-back Sergio Ramos to anchor his backline for this match as he remains out with an injury. But PSG will have Neymar available after he was out for an extended period with an injury. I suspect Neymar will come off the bench as a sub given his fitness issues — but Les Parisiens still have their dream-team combination up top of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe which will become even more potent when Neymar joins this on the pitch. PSG will score in this match after registering 13 goals in their six Group Stage matches — and they will surrender at least once to Los Blancos. Real Madrid will have their star attacker, Karim Benzema, available for this match to join Vinicius Junior up top. Los Blancos are tops in La Liga in both goals scored and expected goals (xG). This side scored at least two goals in their final four Group Stage matches in the Champions League. The defensive play of Los Blancos under manager Carlo Ancelotti has also been superb — but I am not buying it against elite competition. Real Madrid had a relatively easy group with Inter Milan, Shakhtar Donetsk, and FC Sheriff). And they have been feasting on the lower end of the Spanish top-flight lately. But while Los Blancos have allowed just 20 goals to help them rest in first place in La Liga, they are just sixth in that league with their 25.35 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: These teams are playing higher-scoring matches against top competition. Real Madrid’s 3-2 victory against Barcelona in the Super Cup on January 12th is telling. Los Blancos also scored twice in December in league play against Atletico Madrid to overwhelm their elite defense. PSG followed up their two-goal win against Man City with a 2-1 loss in November in that reverse fixture in the Champions League. And in their two matches in the Champions League against a good but not great RB Leipzig side, they won by a 3-2 score and settled for a 2-2 draw. Expect more fireworks in this one — and these two powers have seen at least three goals scored in the last five meetings between them. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Watford (200001) and Burnley (200002). THE SITUATION: Watford (W4-D2-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss to Norwich City on January 21st in their last match in the English Premier League and across all competitions. Burnley (W1-D9-L8) comes off a 0-0 draw at Arsenal in their last match on January 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After a pair of COVID cancellations delaying this match between two teams fighting off relegation, it looks like this match will finally take place this afternoon while the rest of the EPL takes the weekend off (for FA Cup competition). Watford plays their first match under new manager Roy Hodgson two took over after Claudio Ranieri was fired on January 24th. Ranieri was only the Hornets skipper since early October when Xisco Munoz was sacked after leading the team to promotion from the Champions League. The first order of business for Hodgson will be to shore up a leaky defense that is third to last in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA). Hodgson has a good reputation for installing defensive tactics — he led Crystal Palace to develop into a stingy defensive squad before losing that job last season. He inherits a Hornets side that will be undermanned in their attack today. Ismaila Sara remains unavailable as he continues to compete in the Africa Cup of Nations. Forward Emmanuel Dennis is suspended for this match after he picked up two yellow cards in that match against Norwich City. Sarr and Dennis have scored 18 goals between them — accounting for 78% of the team’s scoring production in the EPL this season. As it is, Watford had only scored five goals in their previous seven matches while getting blanked twice. In their last six matches, they are generating a mere 0.88 expected goals (xG) per match. Burnley is only averaging 0.63 xG per match in their last six games. The Clarets have only scored three goals in their last seven matches with four blanks in that span. Losing Chris Wood who transferred to Newcastle played a role in this scoring slump — but this is not a high-scoring team. The organization did acquire Wout Weghorst in the transfer window from Wolfsburg but the Dutch forward may need some time to get in synch with manager Sean Dyche’s system. While Weghorst had scored at least 16 goals in four straight seasons in the Dutch Eredivisie, he struggled when playing for a second-tier team in the Bundesliga which may not be a good sign for him in the EPL. But Dyche’s side plays quality defense. The Clarets have only allowed eight goals when playing at home at Turf Moor, the fifth-lowest in the EPL, and their xGA at home is third-best in the EPL.

FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen six of their 11 matches on the road this season finished Under 2.5 goals. Burnley averages only 2.29 combined goals per match in their seven home matches this season — and six of their last 11 home games have finished Under 2.5 goals. Expect a conservative approach from both teams who would rather register a point than concede three points to their opponent when trying to avoid relegation. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Watford (200001) and Burnley (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200997) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200998). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W12-D7-L3) comes off a 1-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W6-D10-L4) settled for a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chelsea is just W1-D4-L1 in their last six matches after their loss over the weekend that likely ended their chances to win the English Premier League title. They managed only four shots against Man City with only one on target — and they did not register a shot in the entire first half of the match. They generated a mere 0.43 expected goals in the game. The Blues have only scored one goal in their last two matches. They are missing some key pieces in their attack in wings Reece James and Ben Chilwell are out with injuries. Their attack declines when playing on the road — while they average 2.20 expected goals (xG) when playing at home in league play, that drops to 1.64 xG when they are on the road in the EPL this season. But the defensive effort for this Chelsea side under manager Thomas Tuchel. They rank third in the league by holding their opponents to 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) — and their xGA on the road is 1.11. Brighton is unbeaten in their last five matches despite getting their goal on Friday from an own-goal from the Eagles. The Seagulls are an outstanding defensive team under manager Graham Potter. They rank fourth in the EPL by allowing only 1.19 expected goals (xGA). They are also second in the league in the fewest Big Chances (representing an expected goal rate of 35%) and fifth in fewest shots allowed. When playing at home, Brighton holds their opponents to 1.09 xGA. But the Seagulls have not scored more than one goal in six of their last seven games at home at Amex Stadium. These two teams just played on December 29th which resulted in a 1-1 draw. Chelsea managed only 0.92 xG in that match despite averaging 3.17 xG in their previous five matches at home. Brighton countered with only 1.05 xG in that contest. In the reverse fixture between these clubs last season, the result was a scoreless draw.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has seen two or fewer combined goals in four of their last six matches across all competitions. Brighton has seen two or fewer combined goals in nine of their last eleven matches across all competitions. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200997) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200998). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200141) and Leicester City (200142). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W12-D5-L1) last played an English Premier League match on December 16th when they settled for a 2-2 draw at Tottenham. Leicester City (W6-D4-L7) last played on an EPL match on Sunday when they lost at Manchester City by a 6-3 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams just played on Wednesday in the Caribou Cup with the Liverpool B-team pulling out a 4-3 victory in a shootout. The Reds had their last EPL match with Leeds United postponed because of COVID. The Liverpool defense has been leaky as of late after giving up 2.87 expected goals to the HotSpurs nine days ago. The Reds have allowed six goals in their last three matches. They do get back holding midfielder Fabinho and defenseman Virgil Van Dijk for this match — but they are coming off the COVID list so they may not be back to full fitness just yet even if they had only “mild” symptoms. But the Liverpool attack has been clicking after scoring eight goals in their last three matches. They have generated at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each of the EPL contests since November 17th against West Ham. They are tied with Man City with 50 goals for the most goals in the league (with a match in hand) — and they generate 2.4 xG when playing on the road. Leicester City has scored 12 goals in their last four matches in all competitions. Their problem is on the other side of the pitch where they have allowed 14 goals in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have conceded 12 goals in their last four contests. The Foxes have conceded 33 goals in EPL play — the fourth-most in the league. Their 1.69 expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL is fifth to the bottom. Leicester City has also conceded the third most Big Chances (with a goal expectancy of 35% or higher). When playing at home, the Foxes are generating 1.51 xG with 11 goals in their last three matches.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has seen at least four combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Liverpool has seen at last four combined goals in eight of their last 11 contests. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200141) and Leicester City (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brentford (200113) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200114). THE SITUATION: Brentford (W5-D5-L6) comes off a 2-1 win against Watford in their most recent match in the English Premier League on December 10th. Brighton and Hove Albion (W4-D8-L4) last played on December 15th when they lost 1-0 at home to Wolverhampton.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brentford was blanked in their most recent match in the Caribou Cup on Wednesday in a 2-0 loss to Chelsea. The Bees are limited in their attack — they are 15th in the EPL in shot attempts per 90 minutes. When playing on the road, Brentford has only 8.6 expected goals (xG) in their eight matches so far in the EPL this season. But Brentford does play well on defense. They rank sixth in the league in non-penalty kick expected goals allowed (xGA). They have conceded the sixth-fewest shots per 90 minutes. On the road, the Bees improve to four best in xGA. Brighton struggles to score goals — they have only scored three times in their last six matches while getting blanked three times. They have not scored more than once in those six matches — and they will be without one of their best offensive playmakers in Yves Bissouma who is out with an injury. The Seagulls average only 1.0 non-penalty kick xG per match — and they rank 15th in Big Chances created (with a 35% or higher expected success rate). Playing at home at the American Express Community Stadium, Brighton has scored only two times in their last five matches with three blanks. But the Seagulls are tough on defense — they are fifth in the EPL by conceding only 17 goals this season while also ranking fifth best in xGA. They have allowed the third-fewest Big Chances.

FINAL TAKE: Brighton consistently grinds out low-scoring matches under manage Graham Potter. They have played six straight matches where no more than two combined goals were scored. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Brentford (200113) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Manchester City (200125) and Manchester United (200126). THE SITUATION: Man City (W6-D2-L2) looks to rebound in the English Premier League after suffering a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace last Saturday. Man United (W5-D2-L3) looks to build off their 3-0 victory at Tottenham in their most recent EPL match last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was blanked for just the second time in their ten EPL matches this season. The Citizens are third in the league with 20 goals — and their expected goals mark of 22.12 is the second-highest in the EPL. They are averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game in the English top flight. They had scored 13 combined goals in their previous four matches in the EPL and UEFA Champions League before failing to score last week against Crystal Palace. Aymeric LaPorte’s red card at the 45+2 mark of the first half did not help their cause as it left them playing catching with just ten players for the rest of the match. The Man City attack rebounded on Wednesday in the Champions League with their 4-1 win at home against Club Brugge. The Citizens generated 4.26 expected goals in the victory. Generating scoring chances has not been a problem for manager Pep Guardiola’s team. The play of the defense, however, has been off this campaign. Man City has allowed at least one goal in four straight matches in the EPL and Champions League — and they have just one clean sheet in their last seven matches in the EPL and Champions League (excluding lesser-tiered contests) this season. Not having LaPorte on the backline with him suspended handicaps their defense even more. Man United rallied around embattled manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in their shutout victory against the Spurs last week — but Tottenham generated 1.38 expected goals (xG) in the loss. The Red Devils have scored at least two goals in four of their last five matches. They come off a 2-2 draw at Atalanta on Tuesday in the Champions League. But it is the play of the defense that has Solskjaer on the hot seat. Man United is 11th in the EPL by allowing 15 goals this season — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 16.31 is 14th in the league. The Red Devils have only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have conceded at least 1.21 xGA in nine straight matches. Furthermore, they have allowed multiple goals in four of their last five matches in all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw have been out of form all season with speculation being that they are tired after playing critical roles in England’s run to the finals in the Euro 2020 this summer. Man United acquired Raphael Varane to solid their defense before the season started but the former Real Madrid center back is out with an injury leaving the Red Devils backline even more vulnerable. Both teams should score in this one with at least two goals necessary for a potential victory. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Manchester City (200125) and Manchester United (200126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Manchester United (200078). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D3-L0) remained unbeaten in the English Premier League with their 5-0 win at Watford last Saturday. Manchester United (W4-D2-L2) is winless in their last three EPL matches after a 4-2 loss at Leicester City on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I thought I was endorsing Liverpool in this match before my final deep dive. The Reds’ offense is clicking on all cylinders. Roberto Firmino is back in form after registering a hat trick against Watford last week. But it is Mo Salah who is the straw that stirs the drink. Salah may be the best striker in the world — and he may very well be in the form of his life right now having scored in nine straight matches across all competitions. He recorded a brace on Tuesday in Liverpool’s 3-2 win on the road against defensive juggernaut Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League. In the EPL, the Reds lead the league in expected goals (xG), Big Chances (35%+ expected success rate), shot attempts, and shots in the box. And on the road, Liverpool has scored at least three goals in nine straight matches across all competitions including seven straight in the EPL. But I decided that the Over is the better play because the Reds’ defense is not quite in top form. After being ravaged with injuries on their backline last season, manager Jurgen Klopp has a healthy roster once again. But Liverpool has only registered one clean sheet in their last five matches. The cohesion is not quite the same in back as it was with the same group in their EPL championship run two seasons ago. They allowed Atletico Madrid — not an offensive juggernaut — to register 1.94 xG midweek. Manchester United can score goals. They have scored five goals in their last two matches after their 3-2 come-from-behind win against Atalanta in the Champions League on Wednesday. With Cristiano Ronaldo back in the fold with his old club, the Red Devils have an abundance of riches of scoring options as he complements what was already a potent group led by Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, and Marcus Greenwood. But the defense for this team has been shaky all season. Man United’s expected goals allowed (xGA) mark is the worst of the top-eight teams in the league. They have allowed their last six opponents to register at least 1.21 xG across all competitions — and their last two opponents have scored six goals. While the teams spend bundles of money on high-priced forwards like Ronaldo, they still lack quality defensive midfielders that they need to make deep runs at an EPL or European Championship.

FINAL TAKE: Man United struggles against defensive-minded counter-attacking sides. They are at their best when they can play the cagey, counter-attack approach as they will in this one. Another reason why I was reticent to take Liverpool in this match. The Reds have scored at least nine goals in nine straight matches — and they have scored 30 goals in their last eight EPL matches. This should be a wild one. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Manchester United (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Costa Rica (225305) and the United States Men’s National Team (225306). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica enters this match after defeating El Salvador by a 2-1 score in their World Cup Qualifying match in the CONCACAF Octagonal round on Monday. The USMNT looks to rebound from their upset loss against Panama on Sunday in their World Cup qualifying match. This game will be played at Lower.com Field in Columbus, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The US was listless in their effort on Sunday — a disturbing trend under manager Gregg Berhalter. They failed to generate even one shot on goal against the Canal Men. Berhalter did make seven changes from the starting XI that beat Jamaica by a 2-0 score in their last qualifying match. This is considered a golden generation for this American team that has yet to accomplish much outside this continent. European stars Christian Pulisic and Giovanni Reyna are dealing with injuries — and they will not play tonight. But the shape and identity of this team under Berhalter remains a work-in-progress. The pressure is firmly on this team now — they are tied for second with Panama in the table without having played Mexico and Costa Rica who are the two most established powers in CONCACAF. Failing to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar next year would be a disaster — I expect this team to be tight. They have the edge of this being played on home soil — but they have only scored more than one goal once in their last six matches when playing in the US. But the one thing that has been consistent for this squad under Berhalter has been the play of the defense. The Stars and Stripes have five clean sheets in their last six matches at home. Manchester City backup goaltender Zack Steffan gets the start tonight against a Costa Rica team that does not score many goals. In their last eight matches, they have not scored more than one goal — and they have been blanked five times. Their victory against El Salvador earlier this week was the first time in their last seven matches that Los Ticos played a match where three or more goals were scored. Costa Rica is a veteran side that focuses on defensive stability — and they rely on scoring goals from the counterattack. If the US takes a lead, don’t expect them to stay aggressive against these dangerous Costa Rican tactics. Berhalter would love to survive with a 1-0 victory.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have combined to see eight of their ten matches playing the World Cup qualifier octagonal stage have two combined goals or less scored. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have finished Under 2.5 goals — with the exception being a meaningless friendly match in June which the US won by a 4-0 score (with Pulisic and company playing). 20* World Cup Qualifiers Costa Rica-USMNT ESPN2 Special with Under the Total in the match between Costa Rica (225305) and the United States Men’s National Team (225306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200173) and Newcastle United (200174). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W0-D2-L2) comes off a 3-0 loss to Liverpool last Sunday. Newcastle United (W0-D1-L3) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss at Manchester United.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds was blanked against Liverpool — one of the best teams in the world — but Pascal Struijk getting a red card in the 60th minute leaving the Peacocks playing with just ten men for 30 minutes in that match did not help their cause. Leeds has still scored at least two goals in six of their last eight matches in the English Premier League going back to last season. The Peacocks play an aggressive all-out attack under manager Marco Bielsa. But these tactics do leave them vulnerable on defense. Leeds has allowed 11 goals in their four matches which is tied for the second-most in the EPL. Bielsa is not going to park the bus — it will be go-go-go against the Magpies. They allowed the Reds to generate 4.57 expected goals (xG) on Sunday. Leeds improved with their play on defense when playing at home in the second half of the season — but they consistently struggled to stop opposing attacks when playing on the road. The Peacocks were last in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing on the road last season. They ranked a respectable eighth in the league in xG when playing on the road. Leeds has not been as explosive this season in their attack but they did score in both their road matches. The underlying metrics for Patrick Bamford and Raphinha remain good -- the best two attacking players in the starting XI. Newcastle has scored in seven of their last eight EPL matches going back to last season with manager Steve Bruce embracing a more aggressive style with his team playing on their front foot. In their two matches at home this season, the Magpies have scored at least two goals in both contests — and both those home matches saw four and six combined goals scored. Newcastle may have the worst defense in the league — the 12 goals they have allowed are the most in the EPL. Bruce will not have the services of Callum Wilson at forward for this match as he deals with a thigh injury — but Wilson was slowed by an injury last spring as well but that did not slow down the reinvigorated Magpies attack.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights (and soccer matches) — and both these teams will be looking to attack. In the last six meetings between these two teams, at least three combined goals have been scored four times. In their two EPL matches last year, ten combined goals were scored with both matches seeing at least three combined goals. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200173) and Newcastle United (200174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Aston Villa (200050). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W0-D0-L1) opened the 2021-22 English Premier League season with a 4-2 loss to West Ham United last Sunday. Aston Villa (W0-D0-L1) lost at Watford by a 3-2 score last Saturday in their opening EPL match of the season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Newcastle struggled with their defensive play against the Hammers last week — they allowed double the number of Big Chances in that match than the EPL club that allowed the second-most Big Chances in Week One. The Magpies blew 1-0 and 2-1 leads in the contest. Newcastle continued the more aggressive style of play that manager Steve Bruce embraced at the end of last season. The Magpies scored 12 goals in their last five EPL matches — and they scored nine goals in their last four EPL matches on the road. With the signing of Joe Willock from Arsenal to join Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin, Newcastle has some exciting attacking talent — and Willock is in the starting XI today. Aston Villa struggled to generate scoring chances last week before newcomer Danny Ings drew a penalty that led to his goal from the line in the seventh minute of extra time after the 90th minute. The Villans are replacing midfielder Jack Grealish who signed with Manchester City — and forward Ollie Watkins is out with an injury. Yet Aston Villa still has attacking talent. Ings is one of the best finishers in the EPL after serving as the Southampton talisman the last few seasons. The Villans signed Emi Buendia from Norwich City to replace Grealish’s place on the pitch. He averaged 0.34 expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes in the Championship League last year. They also signed Leon Bailey who will get the start after he came off the bench last week. Their attack should improve after a week of training with their new players. Defense is the bigger concern for Villa. They have allowed at least 1.0 expected goals in 12 straight EPL matches — and they conceded at least 2.0 expected goals in three of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa has seen at least three combined goals in four straight EPL matches — and they have seen at least three combined goals in ten of their last eleven EPL contests. Newcastle has seen at least three combined goals in seven of their last eleven EPL matches. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Aston Villa (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W0-D0-L0) looks to build on their sixth-place finish last season in the English Premier League. Newcastle (W0-D0-L0) finished last year in 12th place in the EPL, 17 points clear of relegation.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham concluded their EPL campaign last year by going unbeaten in four of their last five games. They scored six goals in their final two matches. The Hammers are much better when their striker Michail Antonio is healthy and leading their attack as he was at the end of last season. West Ham was sixth in the EPL last year with 37.2 expected goals (xG). The attack led by Antonio has been in good form in the preseason — they defeated a talented Atalanta side from Series A by a 2-0 score before blowing out Celtic from La Liga by a 6-2 margin. But the Hammers defense remains an issue under manager David Moyes. They have not had a clean sheet in their last seven road matches in league play — and they surrender eight goals in their last five EPL road contests. Newcastle won three of their last four games to safely avoid relegation last season with manager Steve Bruce embracing a more aggressive attack. Having a healthy Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin up top offers this team finishing talent. The Magpies scored ten goals in their final four league games. In their final 11 matches in the EPL, Newcastle was third in generating Big Scoring Chances (with a 35% or better chance of success) and fourth in expected goals. But defense is also an issue for this team. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 37.2 in the second half of the season was the fifth most. They also only had two clean sheets at home. That is not a good sign for a team that will have to use their third-string keeper in Freddie Woodman given injuries to their top-two keepers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 17th when Newcastle won by a 3-2 score. Expect another higher-scoring contest between these two teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234201) and the USMNT (234202) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with a 2-1 win against Canada on Thursday. The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 1-0 victory against Canada in the Semifinals on Thursday. This match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: El Tri will have revenge on their minds after losing to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League by a 3-2 score on June 6th. The respective rosters of both teams were the proverbial A-teams — but much of the best offensive players from that match will not be on the pitch tonight. The top ten players from the American roster are now gone and training with their European professional teams. Manager Gregg Berhalter is using this tournament to build depth. Only Kellyn Acosta who started in the match with Mexico in June may be in the starting XI tonight. The Stars and Stripes have been very good with their defense in this competition. They have only conceded one goal in the second half in a blowout against Martinique. But six of their ten goals scored in this competition were against that Martinique side who were one of the minnows in this tournament. It is tough to score on the Americans when they are playing on home soil. In their last 14 matches in the United States, they have conceded only five goals with ten clean sheets. Since the loss to the Americans in June, Mexico has not conceded a goal until the 57th minute against a game Canada side on Thursday.

FINAL TAKE: The four combined goals in regulation in the CONCACAF Nations League Finals was an aberration. When these two teams played in the Finals of the 2019 Gold Cup, Mexico won by a 1-0 score. Expect another lower-scoring match. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234201) and the USMNT (234202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Canada (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-0 victory against Costa Rica in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D1-L0) advanced from the Quarterfinals with their 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. This match is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Let’s not read too much into the offensive assault by El Tri against a La Selecta side that was missing a handful of players (including a few starters) from a COVID outbreak. El Tri has struggled to generate goals in this tournament with only four goals in their three Group Stage matches — including three goals against a Guatemala side that was one of the minnows in this tournament. Scoring looked to be the biggest challenge for manager Gerardo Martino’s side with Raul Jimenez training for his return to Wolverhampton in the English Premier League. Martino could have turned to Javier Hernandez — but his ongoing personal feud with Chicharito appears to have played a role in the 33-year old not being invited to compete. Perhaps Martino wanted to use this event to embrace his younger players? But the plan was thwarted somewhat in their opening when Napoli forward Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffered a tournament-ending head injury. While the clinical scoring talent on this team is diminished, Mexico remains quite stout on defense. They have yet to surrender a goal in this tournament. El Tri has not allowed a goal in their last seven matches after losing to the USMNT in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations Cup last month. Canada is far from full strength in its attack. Manager John Herdman has lost forwards Cyle Larin and Aho Akinola to injury — forcing him to call up Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele to the squad before the Quarterfinals. To compound matters, Vancouver White Caps forward Lucas Cavallini is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card of the tournament in the Quarterfinal against Costa Rica. The Canucks were already without their two best offensive players in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David who resumed their training in Europe for their professional clubs, Bayern Munich and Lille. Herdman is likely to engage in defensive tactics with the hopes of eking out a low-scoring match — and he would happily take his chances with penalty kicks to resolve the match.

FINAL TAKE: Canada had allowed all three of their Group Stage opponents to score goals — but none of those teams registered more than once including the United States. They held Costa Rica to just five shots with none on target in what was likely a harbinger as to how they will attempt to play this match given their injuries. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico (234524) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Qatar (234249) and the USMNT (234250) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Qatar (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-2 win against El Salvador in the Quarterfinals on Saturday. The USMNT (W4-D0-L0) reached the Semifinals with their 1-0 win against Jamaica on Sunday. This match will be played at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Qatar raced out to a 3-0 lead against El Salvador by the 55th minute of their match on Saturday — but they looked shaky on defense the rest of the way after allowing Joaquin Rivas to score twice in the five minute span before hanging on to win the match for the remaining 22 or so minutes. The Maroon was also exposed on defense by Haiti who rallied three times against them before both teams settled for a 3-3 draw in the Group Stage. Qatar has shut out their other two opponents in this tournament — and they registered clean sheets in six of their seven matches when winning the Asian Cup in 2019. So, what gives? The defining difference appears to be when manager Felix Sanchez’s team plays quality competition. In their last five matches against teams ranked in FIFA’s Top-50, Qatar has conceded at least one goal in six of those contests — this includes four friendlies and three matches in the Copa America 2019. Even in their 2-0 shutout win against Honduras in the Group Stage, they benefited from play a side without their best striker Alberth Eliss to injury before Romell Quioto left the match with an injury of his own. The USMNT ranks 20th in the world by FIFA. They have scored nine times in their four matches. The Stars and Stripes has scored in nine straight Gold Cup Semifinal matches — and they have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight Gold Cup Semifinal contests. While the Americans have conceded only once in this tournament, they will face their most potent attack tonight from a Qatar side that leads the tournament with 12 goals. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Maroon who are highly committed to their national team in preparation of their hosting the World Cup to close out 2022. Qatar was supposed to play in the more challenging Copa America this summer before a COVID outbreak changed their plans to get invited to this event.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are used to fast starts — and that dictates tactics in the Knockout Stage. Qatar has scored in the first 25 minutes in three straight matches. The United States scored their first goal in the first 15 minutes in all three of their Group Stage matches. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Thursday Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Qatar (234249) and the USMNT (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258) in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W1-D0-L0) comes off a 1-0 win against Haiti in their opening match in this competition on Sunday. Martinique (W0-D0-L1) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss to Canada in their opening match in Group B play on Sunday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gregg Berhalter chose an inexperienced starting XI on Sunday — and he will likely continue with that approach tonight against the small Caribbean nation. Berhalter’s goal is to help establish more reliable depth for the Stars and Stripes to call upon as they continue their World Cup qualifying matches for Qatar next fall. And the teams’ best players like attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic, striker Josh Sargent, and midfielder Giovanni Reyna are not on the roster given their professional responsibilities for their European professional league training. This roster only began training together last week — so chemistry and cohesion in the attack may take some time to develop. The Stars and Stripes loan goal on Sunday was from defender Sam Vines may his first start in international competition — and it was against a shorthanded Haiti side missing five players after a COVID outbreak on the team. Attacker Paul Arriola had to leave that match with a hamstring injury after 14 minutes into the contest — so I really do not know about the attacking talent that Berhalter will have at his disposal. Berhalter wants his team to press and control possession — and this helps for them to overwhelm lesser opponents. They have now generated clean sheets in seven of their last ten matches on home soil — and they have conceded only four times in those ten matches. Martinique scored first in their 4-1 loss to Canada but that was from a miscue by the Canucks that afforded Emmanuel Riviere that scoring chance. Les Matinino was playing for the first time since November of 2019 given the pandemic and their limited resources. In their final two home-and-home matches against Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League in the fall of 2019, they only scored one time — but they conceded just twice. Martinique’s loss to Canada was just their second defeat in their last five matches — and they only lost that one match to Honduras in their five CONCACAF Nations League contests. Manager Mario Bocaly will have his team play cautiously — and what his team lacks in international competition, they make up for in cohesion since most play domestically in Martinique.

FINAL TAKE: Canada is a potent attacking side — so the four goals that Les Matinino allowed may speak more about the Canadiens than it does about Martinique’s defensive quality. They should play better with a match now under their belt against hostile competition for the first time in 20 months. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250) on Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw Trinidad and Tobago in their opening match on Saturday. Guatemala (W0-D0-L1) lost to El Salvador in their opening match by a 2-0 score on Sunday. This match will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico peppered Trinidad and Tobago with 30 shots in that opening match on Saturday — but only seven were on target. Manager Gerardo Martino lost one of his best offensive players in that match with Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffering a head injury that will keep him out for the rest of the tournament. El Tri is already without their best striker in Raul Jimenez who remains out after suffering a significant head injury playing for Wolverhampton in the English Premier League in the fall. Mexico may not have the firepower — and the cohesion in their attack — to score more than three goals in this match. But El Tri will likely earn their fifth straight clean sheet. Mexico has not allowed a shot on target in three straight matches. Guatemala was given a second chance to compete in this tournament when Curacao had to drop out the day before the event started because of a COVID outbreak. Los Chapines had lost their final qualifying match to compete in this tournament in a heartbreaking 10-9 loss via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score with Guadeloupe on July 6th. Guatemala played El Salvador tough on Sunday with that match being scoreless until La Selecta scored their first goal in the 81st minute. Interim manager Rafael Loredo will have his team park the bus — this team had not allowed a team to score more than one goal against them since a 2-0 loss to Paraguay in June 2019. Furthermore, Los Chapines have allowed only three goals in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have a good goalkeeper in Nicholas Hagen who has five clean sheets himself in 2021.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in a friendly on September 30th with Mexico winning by a 3-0 score. That seems the worst-case scenario score for the Guatemalans who have gained in chemistry and cohesion from their summer experiences. El Tri has a sketchy recent past in second-round matches in the Group Stage of the Gold Cup with only one win and two 0-0 draws. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (234125) and Italy (234126) in the Finals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W5-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Euro 2020 with their 2-1 win against Denmark on Wednesday. Italy (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 4-2 penalty kick shootout win against Spain that resolved their 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play on Tuesday. This match will be played at Wembley Field in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While some have criticized manager Gareth Southgate for his starting XI selections, I think he has been brilliant in shaping this talented roster into a defensive-first group. Defensive tactics tend to be rewarded in international tournaments — and defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group in their recent major tournaments. The Three Lions have only conceded one goal in this tournament — and they have yet to concede a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with a 35% or higher expected rate of return. They have allowed only 3.59 expected goals in this tournament which is the lowest mark in the event. After allowing a goal to Denmark in the 30th minute, England locked down the Danes to just two shots and a mere 0.3 expected goals in the second half. Southgate has been criticized for not doing enough to get the English attack going — and he is likely to continue to engage in conservative tactics in this championship match. Italy entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they would go on to hold their opponents scoreless for over 1000 consecutive minutes before Austria scored against them in the Round of 16. The Azzurri have allowed only three goals in this event — and their 6.01 expected goals allowed is the second-lowest in the field to England. And while the Italians have scored 12 goals, they have managed only four goals in their three Knockout Stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: This should be a cagey, low-scoring match. 10* Euro 2020 Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between England (234125) and Italy (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These are the two highest-scoring teams in the tournament — and while both sides also have surrounded the fewest goals in this event, neither has played an opponent as explosive as they will tonight. I think both defenses will be exposed. Argentina only scored once against a counter-attacking Colombia side in the Semifinals — but they generated a healthy 2.45 expected goals (xG). La Albiceleste has scored 11 times in this event — but their xG rises to 15.92 for a robust 2.66 xG per match average. Lionel Messi leads the way with four goals and five assists. He is averaging 1.18 expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. I do not see Brazil blanking the Barcelona star even though he has yet to score a goal in his career against them. He has a good thing going with Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez who has scored in three straight matches. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack. Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. And while the Selecao has only conceded two goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is more than twice that at 5.15.

FINAL TAKE:  While finals can often evolve into cagey, lower-scoring affairs, I suspect that this match may be lively. Messi is in as top-notch form as he has ever been playing for his national team — and he has a younger and more athletic supporting cast than he has had in recent years. Brazil is a powerhouse that has underachieved its metrics despite averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Colombia (234425) and Peru (234426) in the Third Place Playoff Match in Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D1-L3) lost a heartbreaker in the Semifinals of the Copa America in a 3-2 loss to Argentina in the shootout after a 1-1 score after regulation time on Tuesday. Peru (W3-D1-L2) lost a narrow 1-0 loss to Brazil in their Semifinals match on Monday. This match will be played at the Estadio Nacional de Brasilia in Brasilia, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the only stakes for his match being bragging rights, expect a more open contest between these two teams that tend to prefer to counter-attack. These consolation Third Place matches tend to be higher-scoring. Four of the last six Third Place contests in the Copa America has seen at least three combined goals scored. After a slow start to the tournament, the Colombians have steadily improved. They only lost 2-1 to Brazil in their final Group Stage match. They were fortunate to only allow one goal to Argentina on Tuesday despite giving up 2.45 expected goals (xGA). This team had to adjust to being without their best player, James Rodriguez after the Everton midfielder ended his English Premier League campaign with an injury that kept him out of his last two matches. While they have scored only four goals, they have an expected goals mark of 6.89. Two of their last four matches have seen at least three combined goals scored. Peru has been leaky on defense — they have surrendered 11 goals with the expected goals even worse with a 13.47 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Brazil generated 2.57 expected goals in their Semifinals match on Monday but could only score one time. Los Incas were blanked in their two matches against tournament favorite Brazil — but they have scored at least two goals in three of their other four matches. Four of their six matches in this event have seen at least three combined goals.

FINAL TAKE: Colombia will have a motivational edge for this contest after losing to Peru in the Group Stage of this event on June 20th by a 2-1 score. Look for another higher-scoring match. 10* Copa America Friday Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Colombia (234425) and Peru (234426). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Denmark (234121) and England (234122) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W4-D1-L0) reached the Semifinals of the Euro 2020 with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine on Saturday. Denmark (W3-D0-L2) has won three straight matches after their 2-1 win against the Czech Republic on Saturday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Three Lions come off their best effort of the tournament with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine. England limited Ukraine to just 0.26 expected goals while producing their fifth straight clean sheet in this event. The defensive effort for manager Gareth Southgate has been almost flawless. They have given up the second-fewest shot-creating actions — and they have allowed the third-fewest passes into the penalty area. While England Soccer Twitter bashes Southgate for not playing more of the bigger names on the roster that put up big scoring numbers in the English Premier League, he has emphasized defensive tactics first (and second) while being able to rely on an embarrassment of riches of attacking talent if his team needs to score goals late in the match. The Three Lions get Bukayo Saku back from a knock that kept him out of the Quarterfinals match — the 19-year-old Arsenal midfielder is a good defensive player who offers speed on the outside. Southgate’s decision to play Saku instead of Jadon Sancho is a likely tell that more cautionary tactics are on the horizon for England. He will save Sancho, Jack Grealish, and Marcus Rashford for extra time and penalty kicks. Denmark has been most impressive on the defensive end of the pitch with its shape and discipline. They limited the powerful Belgium team to only six shots. They have only given up two goals in their last three matches — and while they have conceded five goals overall, their expected goals allowed drops to just 4.83 xGA. Denmark has scored 11 goals in their last four matches — but only that Belgium match was against a team that was expected to make a deep run in the Knockout Stage.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a cagey, low-scoring match since neither side will want to concede the first goal. 10* Euro 2020 Wednesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between Denmark (234121) and England (234122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. And while Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16, the fact is that the Azzurri has allowed goals in their last two matches. In hindsight, perhaps the Italian defense was overrated a bit after a relatively easy group that included Turkey, Wales, and a solid Switzerland side. Italy conceded 1.86 expected goals against a Belgium team that was without Eden Hazard. Spain has scored 12 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 17.58 are most in the tournament. La Roja leads all teams in touches in the opponent’s penalty area, completed passes, and pass accuracy — and they are second in the event in shot-creating actions (to Italy). The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: The Italy backline lost one of its key players with left back Leonardo Spinazzola rupturing his Achilles’ tendon in the second half of the match with Belgium. These two teams have had the top two attacks in this event — and they will both play aggressively. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 25* Copa American Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (234133) and Ukraine (234134) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 victory against Germany on Tuesday. Ukraine (W2-D0-L2) defeated Sweden, 2-1, in the Round of 16. This match is being played on a neutral field at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gareth Southgate has England playing very cautiously — but that is why they have not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Opponents are averaging just 0.08 expected goals per shot attempt, the third-lowest of the quarterfinalists They are allowing the third-fewest passes leading to a shot, and the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions. The Three Kings are not peppering the opposing keepers with many shots, they are averaging 0.18 expected goals per shot attempt — they are averaging just 0.08 shots per possession which is last of the teams in the Quarterfinals. Ukraine’s win against Sweden has only two combined goals scored after regulation time. The Ukrainians seized the upper hand when Sweden was issued a red card in the 99th minute. Ukraine then generated 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals with the man advantage with Artem Dovbyk scoring the winning at 120+1 minutes just before going to penalty kicks. The Yellow-Blue was near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Entering this match, Ukraine is last of the teams in the quarterfinals by starting only 3.5 possessions per 90 minutes in the final third of the field. They are also last of the final eight teams by letting their opponents start 10.6 possessions per 90 minutes in their final third.

FINAL TAKE: England has an excellent chance for their fifth-straight clean sheet. Because of that, Southgate will likely continue to have his team play super conservative. I do not see more than two combined goals scored in regulation time. 10* Euro Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between England (234133) and Ukraine (234134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (234105) and Belgium (234106) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W4-D0-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-1 win against Austria last Saturday. Belgium (W4-D0-L0) survived Portugal by a 1-0 score in their Round of 16 match last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy did not allow a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play before surrendering a goal in the 114th minute to the Austrians. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the Group Stage. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. Entering this match, they are allowing only 0.08 shots per opponent possession in this tournament. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season - — he lacks a clinical finish. They were scoreless in regulation time against Austria before finding the back of the net twice in the extra time period. Belgium is allowing 0.17 shots per possession in this event — but they are limiting their opponents to just 0.07 expected goals (xG) per shot attempt which is the best mark in the tournament. The Red Devils’ backline may be old — but they veterans with tons of experience in international and club play. Belgium may also have the best keeper in the world in Real Madrid’s Thibault Courtois. The biggest problem for manager Roberto Martinez is the potential absence of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard who both left the match against Portugal with injuries in the second half. They are game-time decisions. While Romelu Lukaku is the goal scorer up top, De Bruyne and Hazard are vital to the Belgium attack. As it is, the Red Devils have much to be desired in their attack in this tournament. They are averaging only 0.25 expected goals per shot that are on target — that is last of the remaining eight teams in the event. And while the Red Devils have scored eight times, their expected goals drop to just 4.66 xG in their four matches. Belgium does not press — so they do force the tempo nor often get caught. 96% of the shots they allow have at least two defenders between the shot attempt and the goal — as opposed to the 85% average in this tournament.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a cagey, low-scoring affair — even if Belgium has De Bruyne and/or Hazard available to play. I do not see one of these teams scoring twice in regulation time. 25* Euro 2020 Friday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Italy (234105) and Belgium (234106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. But La Roja are vulnerable to the counter-attack when they do lose possession. While they have conceded only four goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) jumps to 6.58 xGA. They may be giving up only 6.0 shots per match, but these shots are high quality. In their four matches, their opponents are averaging 0.27 expected goals (xG) per shot. In their Golden Generation run in winning the 2008 Euro, the 2010 World Cup, and the 2012 Euro, the Reds allowed only 0.06 xG per shot. And while they took a step back in the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Euro, 2018 World Cup cycle from a competitive standpoint, they still held their opponents to just 0.14 xG per shot. In this Euro, their opponents have managed to take 10 shots that had an expected goal success rate of 0.3 or higher. In those three major international tournaments from 2014-2018, Spain conceded only 14 shots overall with an xG rating of 0.3 or higher. The Spanish defense — playing without Barcelona’s Sergio Ramos in the middle for the first time since 2004 — is vulnerable. Switzerland thrives in the counter-attack. They are fourth in this tournament in passes that lead to shots. They are fifth for the most touches in the penalty area. They are fifth in most shot-creating actions. But the Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and this should be a higher-scoring affair. Spain will control possession once again — and they will pepper the Swiss with plenty of shot attempts. But Switzerland should score at least once on the counter-attack on this susceptible Reds defense that is learning how to live without Ramos leading them in the back. 25* Euro 2020 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Switzerland (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout Stage with their 3-1 win against Turkey in their last Group Stage match last Sunday. France (W1-D2-L0) comes off a 2-2 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: France is the reigning World Cup champions — and they have some of the best-attacking talents in the world in Paris-Saint Germain’s Kylian Mbappe and Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema. But Les Bleus are a defensive-first team that prefers to generate offense on their counter-attack. This has been the recipe for success for manager Didier Deschamps in their 2016 Euro campaign when they lost in the Finals to Portugal and their World Cup championship team in 2018. France has scored only four times in this tournament in three matches — and only two of the goals were from open play. They benefited from Mats Hummels' own goal in their victory against Germany. They also got a penalty kick goal from Mbappe against Portugal. Even their lone goal against Hungary came from a bad gaffe from the Hungarians. France has generated only 4.5 expected goals in their three matches. This group seems to lack a plan to break down their opponent if they settle into a defensive posture (outside of hoping their elite talent will somehow find a way to score). Deschamps does not advance his fullbacks into an advanced position to complement the attack. And Barcelona forward Ousmane Dembele is injured taking away a super-sub attacking option for Deschamps. But the French defense remains immaculate. They have only allowed one goal from open play from their three games. Cristiano Ronaldo scored both of his goals on Wednesday from penalty kicks. Getting whistled for a penalty with the ball inside the box just does not happen very often. Switzerland lacks the dynamic scoring talent that tends to draw penalties either. The Swiss National Team only scored one goal against Wales and Italy before netting three goals against a suspect Turkey side. Xherdan Shaqiri scored twice in their match against the Turks — but the “Alpine Messi” has declined as a talent as a 30-year-old and rarely starts for Liverpool at this point in his career. The Swiss generate plenty of shots — they generated the third-most shots in the group stage. The problem is that the quality of shots is low — and they lack the talent to execute on these low-probability shots. The Rossacrociati have the fourth-lowest expected goals per shots attempt with many of their shots coming from long distance. But Switzerland remains a solid defensive side that will play disciplined fundamental defense. While they allowed five goals in their three matches, the expected goals allowed dropped to 4.4 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: It will be difficult for Switzerland to score against France — their expected goals of just 0.25 xG against Italy was telling. But I do not see Les Bleus score more than two goals in this match. Styles make fights — and neither of these teams is comfortable playing on their front foot. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154) in the Round of 16 in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Austria (W2-D0-L1) clinched their involvement in the Knockout Stage with their 1-0 victory against Ukraine on Monday. Italy (W3-D0-L0) remained unscathed in the Euro 2020 with a 1-0 victory against Wales last Sunday. This match will be played on a  neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy has now not allowed a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the first three games. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season. Austria is a dangerous opponent. They have one of the most talented midfields in this tournament with RB Leipzig’s Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer and Wolfsburg Xaver Schlager. Manager Franco Foda also has a jack-of-all-trades talent in David Alba who played left-back for Bayern Munich but has played in the midfield or left wing for his national team. Alba was poached by Real Madrid earlier this year — he is the wild card talent in this match. Das Team will play conservatively with the hopes of scoring on the counter-attack. They ranked second in the Group Stage by forcing turnovers in 38% of their pressures on the press. Italy may be vulnerable here — their three Group Stage opponents did not top a turnover percentage over 28% with their press in the opening three matches. Throw out their 3-1 result against an overmatched North Macedonia. Austria did not score against the Netherlands — but they held the Dutch to just two goals despite playing on their home soil in Amsterdam. They held Ukraine to just 0.36 expected goals but only scored once in that match.

FINAL TAKE: I considered Italy underrated entering this tournament — but I suspect the pendulum has turned the other way with their 3-0 start with a +7 goal differential. The Azzurri benefited from an easy group — and they have not played an opponent with as much quality as these Austrians in perhaps three years when they played Portugal (unless Poland or the Netherlands are better competition?). The Italians also played all three of their Group Stage matches on home soil in Rome. I expect their defense to travel — but the attack will be exposed with La Nazionale likely playing more cautiously in this match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). THE SITUATION: Scotland (W0-D1-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw with England last Friday. Croatia (W0-D1-L1) also settled for a draw with their 1-1 result with the Czech Republic on Friday. This match will be played in Scotland’s home soil at Hampden Park in Glasgow.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Scoring looked to be a challenge for this Scotland team lacking in a dynamic attacker up front. Southampton’s Che Adams is a poacher — but he needs a creative partner up top (like Danny Ings with Southampton) to generate the chances that he can then pick up on. In midfielders Ryan Fraser, John Fleck, and John McGinn, the Tartan Army has capable players but who are not dynamic playmakers. So it is not a surprise that Scotland has yet to score a goal. And while their expected goals are at 3.0 in their first two matches, underachieving the expected goals tally is not uncommon for teams that lack quality finishers. Manager Steve Clarke has his team smartly embracing defensive tactics given these limitations — and they have only conceded two goals in this tournament. Clarke has moved defensive back Andy Robertson up top to a wing to help generate offense, but using players out of position is not ideal. But this team is playing quality defense. They have allowed only two goals — and they held a loaded English side to just seven shots, with only one on target. Croatia has scored just once — and they have generated only 1.6 expected goals in their two matches. The doldrums in the attack were on displaying in their tune-up matches to begin the month as well as they only scored once in their two friendlies against Belgium and Armenia. The Chequered Ones reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup — but forward Mario Mandzukic and midfielder Ivan Rakitic have since retired. Croatia still has talent in their midfield — led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric — but they lack comparable talent up top. This team simply looks uninspired with four straight losses and just two wins in their last eleven matches across all competitions. Frankly, this is a veteran team that knows they peaked in 2018. After a year-long busy schedule to fit everything in during a pandemic that delayed the end of the 2019-20 campaigns, this group may simply be tired.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams need the three points that will come with a victory. Because both sides are struggling to score goals, I suspect they will consider a 1-0 deficit to be devastating. Cautious play is likely — and if a team falls behind, expecting two goals to tie the game is probably overly optimistic. 25* Euro 2020 Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (234001) and Turkey (234002) in a Group A match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy begins their Euro 2020 after playing last Friday when they defeated the Czech Republic by a 4-0 score in a friendly at home. Turkey last played on Thursday of last week when they defeated Moldova by a 2-0 score in a friendly. This match will be played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy is traditionally a defensive-oriented club. After a decline in quality which saw them fail to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia after competing in 12 straight World Cups and Euros, the national team went to former Manchester City head coach Roberto Mancini to right the ship. The Azzuri are unbeaten in 27 matches under his guidance with seven straight clean sheets across all competitions. They only allowed four goals in their ten matches in the Euro qualifying matches. Playing at home, I expect the Italians to be a bit nervy in this opening match delayed a full year due to the COVID global pandemic. This team will have a strong defense led by the Juventus center back pairing of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. Cohesion from the familiarity of club teammates is one of the things I look for in these early international tournaments. Italy has one of the world’s rising stars as well in goaltender Gianluigi Donnarumma who stars for AC Milan. They also have a quality defensive midfielder in Jorginho who helped Chelsea just win the Champions League. The Blues will be without one of their key offensive pieces in midfielder Marco Verratti who has been training alone as he battles a knee injury. The Paris-Saint Germain star missed his last three matches for his professional club. Without Verratti, the Italian scoring burden will be further placed on Ciro Immobile at forward — but he has only 12 goals in 45 international competitions. Turkey can also play stout defense — they allowed only three goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches with eighth clean sheets. That was the fewest goals allowed in the entire qualifying stage. They did allow 19 goals in their next 11 matches across all competitions after completing the Euro qualification — but I suspect that was due to a change in tactics from their cagey manager Senol Gunes to see what he has with this group while putting them in different situations. Gunes was the skipper of the Turkish national team in 2002 when they finished in third place at the World Cup. He returns to coach the Crescent-Stars who have the youngest roster in this competition. But there is talent. Center back Caglar Soyuncu starts for Leicester City. Right back Zeki Celik started for Lille who won the Ligue 1 title. They have a good keep in Ugurcan Cakir. There are two other Lille players in the starting XI in Burak Yilmaz and Yusuf Yazici up top who will likely be instructed to be aggressive only on the counter-attack. Turkey’s top goal-scorer in the qualifying stage was Cenk Tosan — but the Everton forward not playing in this tournament due to a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: Turkey would love a draw in this contest — so their tactics should be defensive in nature. Frankly, Italy would not be too distressed with a draw either against this Crescent-Stars team that is dangerous out of this group. Winnable matches remain against Wales and Switzerland — and the top two teams from the Group advance. Two defensive teams in the opening match? I do not expect more than two combined goals to be scored. 10* Euro 2020 Italy-Turkey ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Italy (234001) and Turkey (234002). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200181) and West Bromwich Albion (200182). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W17-D8-L11) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Brighton on Saturday. West Brom (W5-D11-L20) looks to rebound from their heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Liverpool on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has played themselves out of the Champions League qualification but they remain motivated to win this match since those three points would ensure their involvement with the Europa League next season. That would be a nice accomplishment (and a source of new revenue) for the Hammers. The West Ham defense has waned as of late — they have not had a clean sheet in their last nine matches in the English Premier League. Over their last ten matches, they are allowing 1.65 expected goals per match (xGA). But the Hammers offense has been reliable to close out the season. They have scored 25 goals in their last 13 matches while posting a healthy 1.62 expected goals per match (xG). Getting Michail Antonio healthy and back on the pitch has helped. Antonio leads the EPL in expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. He has scored 14 goals in his last 14 matches on the road. West Ham has scored eight goals in their last four road matches. West Brom thought they earned a draw with last year’s EPL champs before the Liverpool keeper strode up the pitch in a desperate move to add another body in front of the net in the final moments of their match. Allison was unguarded and nailed a perfect header to give the Reds the surprise last-second victory. The Baggies are a mess on defense — the 70 goals they have allowed is five more than the second-worst defensive team in the league. With West Ham already relegated to the Championship League next season, West Brom is not likely to play cautiously in front of home fans in their final home match of the season. They have surrendered goals in five straight games. But the Baggies have scored in each of their last three games at home while totaling five combined goals during that span.

FINAL TAKE: West Brom has seen at least three combined goals scored in six of their last seven matches. West Ham has seen at least three combined goals scored in 61% of their matches this season — and they average 2.89 expected goals generated and allowed when the road. Both teams should score in this match in what could be a wild one. 25* English Premier League Midweek Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200181) and West Bromwich Albion (200182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 5/15:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday afternoon soccer action is with Under the Total in the FA Cups Finals between Leicester City and Chelsea. These two teams last played on January 19th with the Foxes winning by a 2-0 score. That was the last English Premier League match under manager Frank Lampard for the Blues who was sacked a few days later. Chelsea has seen seven of their last nine matches finish with one of the two teams blanking under Thomas Tuchel. The Blues could not score on Wednesday in their 1-0 loss to Arsenal. Leicester City comes off a 2-1 win against Man United on Tuesday but don’t read too much into that result with the Red Devils playing a heavily-rotated side. Both Semifinals matches in the FA Cup at Wembley Stadium finished with 1-0 scores with Leicester City defeating Southampton and Chelsea beating Man City. Expect another cagey, low-scoring match in this championship match. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports begins Saturday on a 16 of 26 (62%) All-Sports run over the last nine days! Frank is on an 8 of 12 (67%) Soccer run this month — and he furthers his 13 of 19 (68%) Soccer Game of the Year/Month mark with his 25* FA Cup Match of the Year for the Leicester City-Chelsea finals showdown at Wembley Stadium on ESPN+ at 12:15 PM ET! DON’T MISS OUT!

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200101) and Leicester City (200102). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W9-D9-L16) enters this match coming off a 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Sunday. Leicester City (W19-D6-L9) is unbeaten in their last four matches after a 1-1 draw at Southampton last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Newcastle was unbeaten in their previous four matches before getting blanked by the Gunners on Sunday. The Magpies have still scored in five of their last seven matches with their attack jump-started by the return of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin who had been injured for much of 2021. They had scored eight combined goals in their previous four matches before Sunday. They have scored three combined goals in their last two matches on the road. But defense remains an issue for manager Steve Bruce. They have allowed 11 goals in their last six matches — and they have conceded the most shots in the league over that span. With Newcastle in 17th place, grabbing points in this match helps them avoid relegation with Fulham currently in danger, nine points behind the Magpies. Leicester City is perhaps playing their most important month of the season since their English Premier League title run in 2015-16. They are currently in third place in the table fighting to finish in the top four to qualify for the UEFA Champions League next season. They also have an impending FA Cup title on the line when they play Chelsea next Saturday. Manager Brendan Rodgers elevation of forward Kelechi Iheanacho into the starting XI has brought new life into the Foxes’ attack. He has scored ten goals in his last nine contests as he complements Jamie Vardy who leads the team with 13 goals. This team is so much better when Vardy has help on the attack. Harvey Barnes is injured but James Maddison is back in the mix after missing time last month after violating COVID protocols. Leicester City has scored six goals in their last three matches — and they have scored nine goals in their last five games and 19 goals in their last nine while getting blanked just once. But the Foxes have conceded goals in their last two matches as well as in five of their last seven.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has seen six of their last seven games at home at King Power Stadium finish Over 2.5 goals. They won the reverse fixture on January 3rd at St. James Park. Expect a similar result this afternoon. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200101) and Leicester City (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Chelsea (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw hosting the Blues in the first leg last Wednesday. Chelsea advances to the Finals with a win or a scoreless draw. Real Madrid advances with a win or a draw where at least two goals are scored. A 1-1 draw after regulation time forces extra time to determine a winner (and this extra time does not impact the totals bet which is resolved after regulation time).

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid comes off a 2-0 victory against Osasuna on Saturday in La Liga action. They held Osasuna to a microscopic 0.07 expected goals in that match. Los Blancos are unbeaten in their last 19 matches while allowing only nine goals during that span. They have surrendered only three goals in their five Knockout Stage matches in the Champions League. Manager Zinedine Zidane continues to deal with injuries in their backline with Raphael Varane, Dani Carvajal, and Lucas Vazquez dealing with knocks — but Sergio Ramos and Ferland Mendy appear to be healthy again. Real Madrid managed only 0.96 expected goals (xG) against Chelsea last week which was the lowest xG mark in their last 45 matches. The Blues have held their opponents across all competitions to just 0.58 xG since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager on January 27th. Chelsea has allowed only four goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League. They come off a 2-0 clean sheet victory at home against Fulham in the English Premier League on Saturday. The Blues have conceded just five times in their last 11 games at home across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea advances to the finals with a nil-nil draw — so Tuchel will likely play very conservatively. The Blues’ last six matches in the Champions League have finished Under the Total. Real Madrid has played three straight matches and five of their last six across all competitors Under 2.5 goals. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match between these two teams. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Chelsea (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (224205) and Real Madrid (224206). THE SITUATION: Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League with their 2-1 aggregate victory over FC Porto in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Real Madrid advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-1 aggregate win against Liverpool in the Quarterfinals. Los Blancos host this first leg at their Alfredo di Stefano Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chelsea last played on Saturday in a 1-0 victory against West Ham United. That was the Blues’ third straight clean sheet — including a big 1-0 shutout victory against Manchester City in the Semifinals of the FA Cup. Chelsea immediately became a defensive juggernaut after Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January. In his 21 matches as the skipper, the Blues have shutout 16 of their opponents across all competitions. Besides Tuchel being a much better manager of players in making his expectations and confidence clear, he also changed tactics to a 3-4-2-1 formation. This shape gave the team extra defenders to tighten up their back end — but it also allows for Chelsea to gain an extra attacker when they go on the counter-attack. The Blues play cautiously while controlling possession. They are allowing only 0.58 expected goals allowed (xGA) since Tuchel took over. They have generated seven clean sheets in their last ten matches in the Champions League. But this conservative approach has taken some of the bite out of the Chelsea attack. They have scored only two goals in their last four matches. Real Madrid has registered four clean sheets in a row themselves after a 0-0 draw at home to Real Betis in La Liga action on Saturday. Los Blancos have nine clean sheets in their last 16 matches across all competitions -- and this includes against quality competition in Atalanta, Liverpool, and Atletico Madrid in five of those clean sheets. They have only allowed two combined goals in their four matches in the knockout stage of the Champions League. But the Real Madrid attack has not been very sharp as of late as they have only scored in one of their last four matches. Manager Zinedine Zidane is dealing with several injuries that will likely compel him to engage in more conservative tactics as well. Center back Sergio Ramos has missed most of the season, and now left-back Ferland Mendy along with defensive midfielders Lucas Vazquez and Fede Valverde dealing with knocks. Zidane had midfielder Casemiro play back as almost a third center back in their second leg match against Liverpool in that 0-0 draw. He may deploy this tactic again — keeping this first leg a lower-scoring match helps Los Blancos control the potential road goals tiebreaker.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has played 18 of their 21 matches in the Tuchel regime Under 2.5 goals. While Real Madrid has played 12 of their 23 matches Under 2.5 goals in 2021, they have seen only three combined goals in their last four matches. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (224205) and Real Madrid (224206). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Everton (200013) and Arsenal (200014). THE SITUATION: Everton (W14-D7-L10) settled for a draw for their third match in a row with their 2-2 result with Tottenham last Friday. Arsenal (W13-D7-L12) also settled for a draw in their last match in a 1-1 score with Fulham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Toffees are playing in a defensive posture with manager Carlo Ancelotti adapting to injuries that have riddled the cohesion of his midfield for most of the season. Everton has more than one goal just once in 11 straight matches across all competitions — and they have blanked in three of those matches. The Toffees have also produced clean sheets in three of their last 11 matches. They go back on the road where they have played four straight matches where no more than two combined goals were scored. Everton has failed to score in their last two road games in league play — but they have also produced three clean sheets in their last four EPL matches away from home. Arsenal will be without their top two scorers in Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang who have combined to score 22 of the team’s 44 goals. Lacazette is dealing with an injury, while Aubemeyang is recovering from the Malaria he caught on the international break playing for his national team in Gabon. Manager Mikel Arteta will be relying on younger forwards for this match. The Gunners have only scored twice in their last four matches at home. But Arsenal has only allowed two combined goals in their last four matches across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Everton has seen eight of their last 11 matches see no more than two combined goals. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match this afternoon. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Everton (200013) and Arsenal (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the math between Southampton (200405) and Leicester City (200406). THE SITUATION: Southampton reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup with their 3-0 win against Bournemouth on March 20th. Leicester City advanced to the Semifinals of the FA Cup a day later on March 21st with their 3-1 victory against Manchester United. This match will take place on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Southampton is mired in 14th place in the English Premier League table but safe from relegation. Lifting an FA Cup title is the team’s line ambition at this point of the season for Ralph Hassenhuttl’s group. The Saints limp into this match coming off a 3-0 loss at West Brom Albion. Defense has been the problem for this side — they allowed a Baggies team likely destined for relegation to generate 3.07 expected goals (xG). Southampton has allowed 35 goals in their last 15 matches across all competitions. Granted, nine of those goals came in a debacle of a loss to Man United. Still, in their last four matches across all competitions, the Saints have allowed 12 goals. But Southampton has gotten their scoring attack going — they have scored 11 goals in the last five matches across all competitions. Getting Danny Ings healthy and back on the pitch makes a big difference — he has scored 13 goals in 22 matches in all competitions this season. Leicester City has lost two in a row with their 3-2 loss to West Ham last Sunday. The Foxes have allowed six goals in their last three matches in all competitions. Leicester City has scored 12 times in their last five matches. The insertion of Kelechi Iheanacho into the starting XI has provided new energy to the attack. The Nigerian is playing up to as a poacher with Jamie Vardy being relied on for more creativity. But the good news for manager Brendan Rodgers is the return of midfielder James Maddison who has been out for breaking COVID quarantine for most of the month. When Maddison is on the pitch, the Leicester City attack is at its finest since he takes much of the pressure off Vardy.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will deploy their best starting XI for this match since an FA Cup trophy would mark a successful season for both franchises. Southampton’s defensive efforts have lagged since a brief period of glory last summer during Project Restart — but they should keep it competitive with Ings healthy. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* FA Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the math between Southampton (200405) and Leicester City (200406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200121) and Newcastle United (200122). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W16-D7-L8) enters this match coming off a 3-2 win against Leicester City last Sunday. Newcastle (W8-D8-L15) comes off a 2-1 win at Burnley last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hammers got two opening goals in the first half from Jesse Lingard who is on fire right now in the English Premier League. Lingard has scored eight goals and added three assists in his nine matches since being acquired by West Ham on loan from Man United in the winter transfer window. While he is over-performing his underlying metrics, he is still averaging 0.44 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes and 0.18 expected assists per 90 minutes. And take his over-performance with this grain of salt: Lionel Messi over-performs his metrics as well. No, Lingard is not Messi (or Messi Jr.) — but there necessarily are outlier performances that determined league-wide averages of expectation. Brighton underperforms in their expected goals because their striker, Aaron Maupay, is not very good. Lingard might be out-performing his expectations because he is simply playing better than the average player. Baseball measures this statistic a bit better with their “Wins Above Replacement Player” (WARP) number. I digress. Even without forward Michail Antonio being healthy and available, West Ham is clicking on offense right now. They have scored three goals in each of their last three matches. They have scored 20 goals in their last ten matches while averaging a robust 1.61 xG per game during that span. David Moyes’ side will need to continue this efficiency on offense given their injuries on defense. The Hammers have been without center back Angelo Ogbunna and holding midfielder Declan Rice — and they have allowed 3.58 xGA combined in their last two matches. Left-back Aaron Cresswell joins them on the sidelines for this match as he is dealing with a hamstring injury. That is not a good development for a defense that has allowed the second-most shots inside the box in their last four matches. Newcastle may be in 17th place but they lead the EPL over the last four matchweeks in expected goals in open play. They generated a whopping 4.07 xG against Tottenham two matches ago. They have scored four goals in their last two matches — yet they are still the most underperforming side in the EPL when comparing expected goals with actual goals in the last six matchweeks. If lack of talent explained that problem, help is on the way for manager Steve Bruce who saw the return of his two most talented players on offense in Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin last Sunday. They combine to average 0.69 xG per 90 minutes. But like West Ham, the Magpies are dealing with their share of injuries from key defensive players as well. Bruce will be without center backs Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schar for this match. Newcastle allows 1.54 xGA per match this season which is the fourth-worst mark in the league. And in their ten matches against teams in the top half of the table, the Magpies are allowing 2.38 xGA per contest.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have plenty at stake. West Ham is motivated to stay in fourth place to qualify for the Champions League next season. Newcastle is six points clear of relegation in 17th place — but picking up points this morning goes a long way to keep them safe which is why Bruce has them playing as openly as of late as they have all season. In a game between two teams playing with confidence on offense but with depleted defensive corps, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200121) and Newcastle United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Liverpool (224230) in the second leg in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid won the opening leg of this showdown with their 3-1 victory over the Reds. Liverpool needs either a 2-0 victory in this second leg, or they must score three goals in a victory to advance to the semifinals.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Liverpool continued to struggle on defense last week by allowing Real Madrid to score three times. Trent Alexander-Arnold was burned too often on their backline with the Reds’ missing center backs Virgil Van Djik, Joe Gomez, and Joel Matip. The Reds allowed Los Blancos to generate 1.99 expected goals (xG). Liverpool did look better on offense than on Saturday in a 2-1 win against Aston Villa. The Reds generated 2.34 xG against the Villans. Getting Dioga Jota back on the pitch after he was out for a couple of months gives them another playmaker on the pitch which should make things easier for forwards Mohammad Salah and Sadio Mane. Manager Jurgen Klopp will have them playing aggressively in this second leg since they need to score goals. They will be facing a Real Madrid side who is banged up on their backline. Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varone remain out after missing last week’s match — and now right-backs Lucas Varquez and Dani Carvajal are questionable with knocks. Los Blancos may be ripe for an emotional letdown after following up their win on Tuesday with a big 2-1 win over Barcelona in El Clasico on Saturday. Real Madrid did allow Barca to generate 1.78 xG. They are vulnerable on defense. But Los Blancos should score goals with Liverpool needing to play on their front foot. Real Madrid has scored in all but three of their La Liga matches this season — and they have scored in all but one of their nine Champions League matches this season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams also played to a 3-1 score in the Champions League finals in 2018. Expect a higher-scoring match once again with Liverpool pressured to score plenty of goals. 10* UCL Wednesday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Liverpool (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FC Porto (224221) and Chelsea (224222) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Chelsea won the first leg of this Quarterfinals battle with the Dragons in the UEFA Champions League. FC Porto must score at least two goals in a regulation-time victory to stay alive to advance to the semifinals.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Porto may have to play more aggressively in this second leg — but they will first have to wrestle the ball away from Chelsea, which will be much easier said than done. Since Thomas Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard for this franchise, they have become possession monsters that are controlling the ball around 65% of the time in their English Premier League matches (they were at 64.6% two EPL matches ago, which was second-best at the time before posting 58% and 59% possession marks in their most recent two EPL matches — more on that below). Tuchel switched from Lampard’s standard 4-3-3 formation to a 3-4-2-1 which has done wonders for clarifying the expectations for his players on the pitch. The results have been a more methodical and plodding style — but also one where the opponent simply does not get many counter opportunities with the Blues able to quickly get five players back on defense. The proof is in the pudding — Chelsea has had eight clean sheets in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Blues limped into their match with Porto last week coming off a 5-2 loss to West Brom — but they played with ten men for over 61 minutes of that match after Thiago was issued a red card at the 29-minute mark. While the wheels fell off on defense (for the first time under Tuchel), they still controlled possession for 58% of that match. The Blues come off a 4-1 win against Crystal Palace on Saturday. That result was a bit of an aberration as Tuchel rested most of his defensive-oriented players for this second leg. He finally played Kai Havertz at forward — and the German scored the first goal before scoring-machine (and defensive liability) Christian Pulisic scored two more goals in the easy win. The Chelsea defense was great — the Eagles just happened to score on their one shot. Havertz and Pulisic will likely be on the bench for this match. Tuchel’s plan will be to play keep-away — and he can rely on his outstanding goaltender, Eduoard Mendy. Under Tuchel in his 16 matches as the Blues’ skipper, they have a minuscule 0.53 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They have only allowed more than a goal once during that time in that outlier effort against a desperate West Brom team where they were played with a man disadvantage. Chelsea did not pressure Porto’s defense much last week despite playing on their front foot. They managed only six shots — and they completed only four passes into the penalty area. Mason Mount scored a nice clinical goal for them — but Ben Chilwell’s second goal at the 85-minute mark occurred because of a defensive mistake. The Dragons are an outstanding defensive team. The dilemma for manager Sergio Conceicao is that he prefers to have his team sit back in a defensive 4-4-2 formation with six players usually back parking the bus. Porto only had possession marks of 34% and 31% in their two Round of 16 matches against Juventus. They prefer to counter-attack — and I suspect this will be the strategy for the Dragons with the hopes they can score in this manner. Porto simply lacks scoring talent — and they risk falling behind 3-0 aggregate if they attempt to play too aggressively and out of character. Despite falling behind after 32 minutes in the first-leg, the Dragons only attempted eight shots in the match.

FINAL TAKE: FC Porto has played four of their last six matches in the Champions League Under 2.5 goals — and Chelsea has played four straight matches in the Champions League Under 2.5 goals. The Blues have also earned clean sheets in seven of their last nine matches in the Champions League. The directive for Tuchel is simple: don’t let Porto score. They simply do not need to pressure the Dragons — and Porto lacks the playmakers to counter these tactics. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between FC Porto (224221) and Chelsea (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). THE SITUATION: PSG advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Champions League with their 1-1 draw against Barcelona on March 10th which secured them a 5-2 aggregate victory in the Round of 16. Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals with a 2-1 win against Lazio to secure a 6-2 aggregate victory in the Round of 16.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bavarians host the first leg at their Allianz Stadium. Not only have the reigning Champions League champs won 18 of their last 19 matches in this European competition, but they have scored at least two goals in 17 of these contests. Bayern Munich has also scored at least two goals in their last three opportunities to host PSG. They will be without striker Robert Lewandowski for the next month after he suffered a knee injury playing for his Polish national team two weeks ago during the international break. Lewandowski has 35 goals in 25 matches in the Bundesliga. But manager Hansi Flick has an embarrassment of riches to turn to as the striker. He tapped former PSG striker, Eric-Maxim Choupo Moting, as the number 10 on Saturday in their 1-0 win at RB Leipzig. I am not worried that the match was low-scoring since that is the Red Bulls style as a counter-attacking group. Bayern Munich has perhaps the best midfield pairing in the world in Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretza with the latter scoring against Leipzig. Flick can also elevate Leon Goretzka or Thomas Muller (who was previously the team’s striker before Lewandowski’s emergence into a superstar) to the striker role. The Bavarians’ high-press with all this talent keeps them an offensive juggernaut even without Lewandowski. But defense has been an issue to this team. They have allowed 35 goals in 25 Bundesliga matches this season. They conceded in both legs in the Round of 16 to Lazio. And they have allowed at least one goal in 11 of their last 13 matches at home. PSG will have a chip on their shoulder for this showdown after losing at home to Lille, 1-0, to fall into second place in Ligue 1. The good news for the Parisians is that Neymar returned to the pitch after being out for two months with an injury. And PSG still has the sensational Kylian Mbappe who has scored 20 goals in Ligue 1 — and he netted a hat trick in PSG’s 4-1 win at Barcelona in the first leg of that Round of 16 match. Manager Mauricio Pochettino will be without creative midfielder Mario Verratti — but his absence may impact their defensive cohesion as much as their attack. The Parisians have scored at least once in 43 straight matches in the Champions League.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Champions League Final last August which Bayern Munich won in a low-scoring 1-0 match. With this rematch being a two-legged quarterfinal where goals scored on the road is the tie-breaker, expect the tactics to be more aggressive in a higher-scoring match. 20* UCL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (224249) and Manchester City (224250) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 match. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg between these two teams on February 24th by a 2-0 score. Borussia Monchengladbach must win by two goals in this second leg to advance — and a 2-0 win would trigger extra-time with both teams even the goal differential and away-goals tie-breakers. This match is being played on a neutral field in Budapest given travel restrictions Germany impacting Monchengladbach.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City got back playing their stingy defense on Saturday in a 3-0 victory at Fulham. The Cityzens held the Cottagers to just 0.26 expected goals (xG). Man City had conceded goals in their previous four EPL matches but manager Pep Guardiola has been aggressively rotation his starting XI over the last month with the English Premier League title likely in hand. The main priority for this club has shifted to winning the Champions League which is an accomplishment that has eluded Guardiola in his tenure here. He rested several key players on Saturday — so this is the A-Team today. Man City is at their best defensively when John Stones and Ruben Dias are paired at center-back. They were together on Saturday and they should form the heart of a four-player backline today. Since a loss to Tottenham in December, the Cityzens have conceded just 0.67 xGA (expected goals allowed) in 22 EPL matches. In their seven Champions League matches this season, Man City has an xGA of 0.31 with six straight clean sheets. Some of this is a result of tactics: Guardiola has reeled-in much of his aggressive pressing attack this season given early-season injuries in the back and facing the reality of a compressed fixture schedule that would challenge the fitness of his players. Pep can’t help but love the new defensive identity of his team. I considered taking Man City minus the goal-line — but the Cityzens are not blowing out teams. They have not scored more than three goals in eight of their last ten matches across all competitions. Guardiola is content with clean sheet wins. Borussia Monchengladbach is a mess with six straight losses. Die Fohlen has folded ever since manager Marco Rose announced that he was leaving for rival Borussia Dortmund at the end of the season. This slide has some whispering that Dortmund may have overreached with the hire — and this dynamic persuaded me to conclude that Rose will not risk playing aggressively since that could result in an embarrassing loss. Look for Monchengladbach to be pragmatic — and this has been their tactical approach as of late. In their last six matches in the Bundesliga, they have produced just 6.54 xG — but they have conceded only 6.53 xGA. That defensive mark is sixth-best in the German top-flight over that span which is better than their 8th best mark defensively for the season. They recently played to 1-0 losses to top-six teams Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund — and I think that is a hint to how Rose will play this match.

FINAL TAKE: Monchengladbach only allowed 10 shots in the first leg to the Cityzens with Man City managing just 1.5 xG. But Die Fohlen only managed three shots resulting in 0.20 xG. Man City has seen under 3.5 combined goals in five of their last seven Champions League matches and ten of their last 18 EPL contests. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (224249) and Manchester City (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W9-D6-L12) snapped a nine-game winless streak with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United last Saturday. Man City (W20-D5-L3) saw their 28-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday in a 2-0 loss at home to Manchester United.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite scoring the two goals against the Blades, the Saints’ offensive attack has been stagnant this season. They had only scored five goals in their previous nine matches before scoring twice on Saturday. But it was not all good news for manager Ralph Hassenhuttl as his leading scorer, Danny Ings, suffered a muscle injury that will keep him out at least a month and perhaps the rest of the season. Ings leads the team with eight goals. The Southampton attack has overachieved even with their 33 goals in 27 matches. Their expected goals mark (xG) is sixth-worst in the league and their average below 1.0 non-penalty expected goals per game. The Saints have probably deserved better on defense — while they have allowed 44 goals, their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) drops to 38.44 this season. They have surrendered 28 goals in their 14 matches on the road — but their xGA plummets to 23.47. Against this Man City juggernaut, Hassenhuttl will likely keep his team compact in their 4-4-2 system while rarely pushing into their 4-2-2-2 pressing formation. Man City looked out-of-synch against the Red Devils in Sunday’s Manchester Derby. The toll of the COVID season with a crammed fixture schedule may finally be taking its toll on this team that likely has the EPL championship locked up. The Champions League becomes the focus for this team — so here comes Pep Roulette from manager Pep Guardiola regarding resting players. I waited to release this play on the announcement of his starting XI. His lineup lacks a true forward with both Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero on the bench — Phil Foden may be playing the “false nine” spot. Raheem Sterling also is on the bench which leaves a bunch of their firepower on the bench. The mix of midfielders remain talented — but they have not played a ton of minutes together so cohesion is an issue. I am not worried about the stout Man City defense despite them conceding goals in three straight matches. They surrendered a goal to Wolverhampton last week despite posting a tiny xGA of 0.40 in that match. They have still only given up seven goals in their last 17 EPL matches with ten clean sheets. The improved defensive play from the Cityzens has been generated from both an influx of new talented defensive backs and a less-aggressive pressing approach — both of those dynamics will be in play for this match.

FINAL TAKE: Man City won the reverse fixture on December 19th by a 1-0 score. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200081) and Manchester United (200082). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W7-D4-L13) lost their seventh match in their last nine on Monday in a 2-0 setback at Chelsea. Manchester United (W13-D7-L4) come off a disappointing 1-1 draw at West Bromwich Albion.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle only registered 0.71 expected goals against the Blues to begin the week. That effort came on the heels of them scoring three times against the Saints in their previous despite registering a mere 0.79 expected goals (xG) in that match. The Magpies have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the EPL with their xG also ranking fourth-worst amongst the twenty clubs in the top flight. Manager Steve Bruce will be without his top scorer once again for this match with Callum Wilson still out with a hamstring injury. Wilson leads the team with 10 goals with the second-leading scorer for the team only registering four goals. Wilson averages 0.56 xG per 90 minutes — and he accounts for 53% of the expected goals for Newcastle this season either from goals or assists. He has been involved in 15 of the team’s 25 goals. His absence will likely compel Bruce to have his team play even more cautiously. On the plus side, the Magpies have only allowed more than two goals just once in their last twelve matches. Man United has only won once in their last five EPL matches. They registered a mere 0.61 xG against a suspect West Brom team with a leaky defense. The Red Devils have scored 50 goals this season — but their xG plummets to just 42.08 which suggests the team has been rather fortunate in the goal-scoring department. At home at Old Trafford, Man United has 25 goals but just 22.50 xG. Man United did score four times in their 4-0 win against Real Sociedad in the Europa League — but fatigue and rotation may play a role in this match on the short turnaround. The Red Devils tend to have their best scoring games when playing a team that plays on their front foot. But when they play a cautious defensive-minded club, Man United tends to struggle to score goals. They have been consistent defensively — they have held their last six opponents in the EPL to just 0.92 xG.

FINAL TAKE: Newcastle has been blanked in seven of their last eight matches on the road. They lost at home to Man United in the reverse fixture in October by a 4-1 score. Bruce would be thrilled with a draw in this match — expect a very conservative approach from the Magpies. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200081) and Manchester United (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200089) and Chelsea (200090). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W7-D4-L12) has won two of their last three matches in the English Premier League with their 3-2 win against Southampton last Saturday. Chelsea (W11-D6-L6) has won four straight games across all competitions with their last match in the EPL last Sunday when they defeated Sheffield United on the road, 2-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle scored three times against the Saints last week despite registering a mere 0.79 expected goals (xG) in that match. The Magpies have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the EPL with their xG also ranking fifth-worst amongst the twenty clubs in the top flight. Manager Steve Bruce will be without his top scorer in this match as well with Callum Wilson out with a hamstring injury. Wilson leads the team with 10 goals with the second-leading scorer for the team only registering four goals. Wilson averages 0.56 xG per 90 minutes — and he accounts for 53% of the expected goals for Newcastle this season either from goals or assists. His absence will likely compel Bruce to have his team play even more cautiously. The Magpies have only allowed more two goals once in their last eleven matches. Chelsea has only allowed one goal in the five matches under new manager Thomas Tuchel — and that was an own-goal against the Blades last week. The Blues then played on Thursday when they shutout Barnsdale, 1-0, in FA Cup action. Chelsea is dominating possession which is helping them limit scoring opportunities for their opponents. The Blues’ four EPL opponents under Tuchel are averaging just 0.55 xG — and they have not allowed a Big Chance (representing a scoring opportunity with a success rate of 35% or higher). But Chelsea is not generating many scoring opportunities themselves under Tuchel. They are averaging only 0.93 non-penalty kick xG in their four league matches under Tuchel. They have scored only six goals in the five matches under Tuchel.

FINAL TAKE: Tuchel has holding midfielder N’Golo Kante healthy again to fortify the defensive structure of his team. Chelsea defeated Newcastle, 2-0, in the reverse fixture on November 21st. That feels like the final score for this rematch — although 1-0 might be the result. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200089) and Chelsea (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200057) and Liverpool (200058). THE SITUATION: Man City (W14-D5-L2) has won nine straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-0 win at Burnley on Wednesday. Liverpool (W11-D7-L4) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at home to Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manchester City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season with manager Pep Guardiola shifting tactics a bit. He also found a dominant defensive pairing at center back in Ruben Dias partnering with John Stones. In the Cityzens’ last 12 matches which has featured this pairing, they have surrendered just one goal. Perhaps even more impressive, Man City has allowed a mere 5.43 combined expected goals (xG) over that span. Their defense has been suffocating. Burnley barely registered 0.07 xG on Wednesday. They have not allowed these last 12 opponents to generate more than 1.0 xG. And even the one goal they allowed over this span was a meaningless stoppage-time goal to Chelsea in a 3-1 victory. Man City has eight clean sheets in their last nine EPL matches — and they have an incredible 16 clean sheets in their last 20 contests. Yet all this defense is coming at a cost. The offensive attack has been reeled in a bit. The Cityzens are averaging 1.99 xG this season which is a drop off from their 2.67 xG and 2.40 xG marks in the previous two seasons. Some of this is tactics — but some of this dropoff is also because the starting XI is without key scoring talent. Their best pure goal-scorer is Sergio Aguero but has barely played this season. Their best overall offensive player for goal-scoring, assists, and penalty kicks is Kevin DeBruyne but he is out with an injury. Man City has not registered 2.0 xG or higher in three straight matches — they are simply not generating many Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a success rate of 35% or higher). On the road, while the Cityzens have scored 24 goals, their xG drops to 19.15  for a more modest 1.74 xG per match. Liverpool is in a scoring slump right now in a combination of bad luck and attackers out-of-form. The Reds have not scored in three straight home matches — and it has been a stunning 348 minutes since they last scored a goal at home at Anfield. In their last four matches overall, Liverpool is averaging just 1.48 xG per match. Granted, the Reds expect Sadio Mane to be back on the pitch for this showdown — and the underlying numbers indicate that they should be seeing more scoring. Well, no kidding! Facing an opponent who will not be content to park the bus in back will help. But Man City is not the side a team wants to face to break out of their scoring doldrums. Jurgen Klopp’s team has been strong defensively still — even with plenty of injuries. Since losing defensive back Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool is allowing just 1.08 expected goals (xGA) per match. And some of this defensive success comes from Klopp also choosing to rein in his offensive attack. One of the residual impacts of the altered schedule this season given COVID’s impact on the 2019-20 campaign is a condensed schedule. Uber-aggressive pressing teams like Man City and Liverpool have been less ambitious simply because of player fatigue. Expect both managers to exhibit caution in this showdown. Guardiola will be satisfied with a draw.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture on November 8th in a match where both defenses were not playing nearly as well as they are now. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200057) and Liverpool (200058). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200033) and Tottenham (200034). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W9-D6-L6) won their first match under new manager Thomas Tuchel on Sunday in their 2-0 victory against Burnley. Tottenham (W9-D6-L5) has lost two in a row after their 1-0 loss at Brighton and Hove Albion.

THE SITUATION: The tenor of this Chelsea team under Tuchel has been to dominate possession while staying conservative in taking chances yet suffocating their opponent’s attacking ambition. Burnley managed only one shot on Sunday — and that was only in stoppage time — while generating a mere 0.14 expected goals (xG). In their 0-0 draw with Wolverhampton, the Blues limited the Wolves to just 0.63 xG. Chelsea dominated possession in both matches controlling the ball for 66% and 67% of the time. The Blues have allowed only five combined shots in both games. Yet Chelsea is not being overly aggressive in their attack. They managed only 1.35 xG in their victory against Burnley after generating just 0.81 xG against Wolverhampton. Tottenham only managed 0.44 xG in their loss at Brighton. The Spurs’ offensive attack is toothless without Harry Kane who remains out with an ankle injury. Since leaving the match against Liverpool at halftime, Tottenham has managed only 0.48 xG in 135 minutes with just one goal, nine shots, and zero Big Chances (representing a 35% or better success rate). Manager Jose Mourinho’s tactics have quickly been exposed in the top-flight — everyone knows he wants his side to score on the occasional counter-attack with his high-skilled scoring talent like Kane. The Spurs are wilting against opponents not taking the bait in being overly aggressive. But Tottenham remains fundamentally-sound on defense. They have allowed only 21 goals which are the second-fewest in the English Premier League.

FINAL TAKE: I waited to endorse this play until Tuchel announced his lineup at 2 PM ET — he is still learning his roster and tinkering with starting XI lineups. A starting group with Christian Pulisic and Tammy Abraham and/or Oliver Giroud might have scared me off. Instead, both attack-minded players are on the bench with solid-defensive minded midfielders like Mason Mount, Mateo Kovacic, and Jorginho are on the pitch. Kai Havertz is injured for this match which takes away an offensive-oriented player. Expect Chelsea to control possession again but not be too foolish in rushing players into the attack. 25* EPL Thursday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200033) and Tottenham (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (200037) and Liverpool (200038). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W4-D9-L8) is unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions after their 1-0 win against Tottenham on Sunday. Liverpool (W11-D7-L3) has won their last two matches with their 3-1 win against West Ham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brighton has registered three straight clean sheets as they are playing outstanding defense right now. They held the Spurs to just 0.44 expected goals (xG) over the weekend. The Seagulls have allowed 29 goals this season — but they are fifth-best in the English Premier League with 24.70 expected goals allowed. But they have only scored 21 times in their 23 EPL matches.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200025) and Manchester United (200026). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W8-D5-L7) has lost three straight games in the English Premier League after their 1-0 loss to Aston Villa on Saturday. Manchester United (W12-D5-L4) comes off a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Southampton attack has stalled as they have only one goal in their last three matches along with just three goals in their last eight contests. Perhaps the cause for this decline was simply the Regression Gods finally visiting the Saints after the summer and then fall in the new season where their scoring numbers were exceeding their underlying numbers. Southampton has scored 27 times this season but their expected goals (xG) fall to just 21.14. The Saints average just 1.11 xG per match which is sixth-worst in the EPL. Their non-penalty kick xG is only 1.03. And in their nine road matches in league play, Southampton has an xG of 8.43 as compared to their 12 goals scores which suggest they have been overachieving from their 1.33 goals-per-game road mark. The Southampton defense has been solid — they limited a potent Aston Villa attack over the weekend to just 0.77 xG. For the season, the Saints allow 1.33 expected goals (xGA). Manchester United is in a scoring slump of their own with just three goals in their last four matches. Marcus Rashford is out-of-form — he has managed only six shots inside the box in his last seven matches. But the Red Devils’ defensive effort remains consistent. They limited Arsenal to just 0.90 xG on Saturday with the Gunners’ best scoring chance only registering a 9% chance of success. Man United has allowed 15 goals in their 10 home matches — but their xGA drops to 12.46. Yet the Red Devils generate 0.30 fewer expected goals when playing at home at Old Trafford.

FINAL TAKE: Southampton has seen 13 of their 20 EPL matches this season generate two combined goals or less. Man United has played seven straight EPL matches with no more than three combined goals scored — and four of those matches saw less than three combined goals scored. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200025) and Manchester United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W9-D6-L4) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Thursday. Brighton (W3-D9-L8) last played on Wednesday when they settled for a 0-0 draw at home against Fulham.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs’ attack was toothless in that important match against Liverpool — they managed only three shots and their expected goals mark was a meager 0.11 xG. Now this team will be without Harry Kane today (confirmed with their lineup announcement at 1:15 PM ET) — he has scored or assisted in 24 of Tottenham’s 34 goals this season. As it is, the Spurs were overachieving in their goal-scoring this season with their 34 goals scored betrayed by their expected goals mark of just 28.73 xG. They go back on the road where they have scored 19 times — but their 13.09 xG is a big dropoff that is bottom-ten in the EPL. Manager Jose Mourinho plays a cautious style of play that relies on the elite ball-striking efficiency of Kane and midfielder Son Heung-min. Tottenham’s defensive efforts remain elite — they lead the EPL with the fewest Big Chances (35% or better statistical success rate) when playing on the road. Brighton is underachieving relative to their expected goals numbers. While they are in 17th place with 18 points, their 31.57 expected Points would place them in the middle of the table. This team is the opposite of the Spurs — they create plenty of scoring chances but they lack the elite offensive players who take advantage of these opportunities with skilled shots on target. They have scored only 22 goals in their 20 matches — and they have just 10 goals in their ten matches at home at AmEx Stadium. The Seagulls are tough to score on. While they have surrendered 29 goals, their expected goals allowed drops to 24.33. This team was getting mediocre play out of goalkeeper Mat Ryan who was responsible for some soft goals. Robert Sanchez has been much better since taking over midseason — and he has two straight clean sheets. Brighton ranks second in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA), non-penalty kick xGA, and Big Chances allowed when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs won the reverse fixture between these two teams on November 1st by a 2-1 score. Tottenham generated 2.00 xG in that match with Ryan rather than Sanchez the Seagulls’ keeper — but Kane accounted for 1.36 of that xG himself. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W12-D2-L5) has won three matches in a row in the English Premier League with their 2-0 win against Chelsea on January 19th. Everton (W10-D2-L5) plays their first EPL match since January 12th when they defeated Wolverhampton on the road by a 2-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City will be without their top attacker in Jamie Vardy who is out a few weeks with a hernia injury. Vardy averages 0.76 expected goals per 90 minutes. The Foxes' recent success has coincided with the return of attacking midfielder James Maddison to the pitch — but he plays better when he can complement Vardy. Manager Brendan Rodgers will continue to lean on the outstanding play of his team on defense. They held Chelsea to just 0.69 expected goals (xG) — and they have registered two straight clean sheets in the EPL. Since December 20th, Leicester City has an expected goals allowed mark that is third-best in the EPL. Getting holding midfielder Wilfred Ndidi healthy again has been vital — the Foxes have not allowed an opponent to register even 1.0 xG since his return to the pitch. In their last six EPL matches, Leicester City has an xGA of 0.85. Everton will be rested for this match although they did play an FA Cup match on Sunday in a 3-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday. But manager Carlo Ancelotti will have a group that has not been overworked. The Toffees are playing great defensively as well — they have held their last six opponents to just 1.20 xGA per match. Everton has not allowed more than one goal in eight straight EPL matches — and they have given up just five combined goals over that span. The Toffees have seen two or fewer combined goals in six of their last eight EPL contests. The offense has struggled with just 0.60 expected goals per match in their last four EPL games. They have overachieved with five goals scored from just 2.4 xG during that span. They do have forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin back after he has been out — but this remains a team that is playing more cautiously on the pitch than they were earlier in the season.

FINAL TAKE: Everton won the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 26th with a 2-0 victory. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* English Premier League Wednesday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W11-D5-L2) returns to English Premier League action after defeating Aston Villa last Wednesday by a 2-0 score. West Brom (W2-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 2-1 loss at West Ham last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season. They have ten clean sheets this season in the EPL including three straight. Manager Pep Guardiola has reeled-in his pressing system this season which has put less pressure on his backline. The Cityzens surrendered too many Big Chances (representing an expected goal percentage of 35% or better) last season — so perhaps a tweak in tactics was needed. Not having the services of his best striker, Sergio Aguero, might have played a role as well. Aguero has returned from the leg injury that had him on the shelf — but his positive COVID test keeps him unavailable for this match. Guardiola may have also foreseen the need to not press as much given the condensed schedule given the late start to the season after needing the summer to complete the 2019-20 campaign because of the global pandemic. Legs are shot for many of these players — so asking them to engage in ambitious pressing may exacerbate the fitness problem. Man City has also made some nice additions to their defense including signing Ruben Dias. Since his arrival, the Cityzens are allowing just 0.52 expected goals (xGA) in their last ten EPL games while conceding only twice. And while their attacking numbers have improved, Man City has scored only ten goals in their eight road matches in the EPL. They had played six straight road matches where they did not score more than one goal before their 3-1 win at Chelsea on January 3rd. The Cityzens have played their last three EPL matches at home. They last played on Saturday in the FA Cup when they rallied from a 1-0 hole to overwhelm Cheltenham Town, 3-1. Unfortunately for Guardiola, he had to rely on his key players late in the match rather than resting them for this league contest. West Brom is a mess on both ends of the pitch — but they are likely to continue the defensive tactics they employed in the reverse fixture between these two sides on December 15th which ended in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad. The Baggies host this rematch at the Hawthornes where they have scored just five times in their nine matches. West Brom has been blanked in three straight home matches in league play as well as five of their last seven. They are last in the EPL in expected goals from their attack. They will likely get blanked again by this stout Man City defense. The issue is how many goals will the Cityzens bag?

FINAL TAKE: Man City will be without their glue in the middle of the field in Kevin DeBruyne who is out for four weeks with a hamstring injury. DeBruyne may be the best player in the world 40 yards away from the goal — he is the glue that holds this Man City attack in place. The Cityzens have Gabriel Jesus back — but the attacker is more of a poacher who thrives in reacting to the actions of players like DeBruyne. Raheem Sterling will lead the attack but his form has not been top-notch. I suspect 2-0 is more likely of a result than 4-0 (and beyond) — and we can live with a push if the result is 3-0 (or 2-1). 25* English Premier League Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W4-D4-L9) has lost two straight games after their 1-0 loss at West Ham on Saturday. Liverpool (W9-D7-L2) is winless in their last four matches in the English Premier League after their 0-0 draw with Manchester United last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liverpool offensive attack has stalled. They have not scored in their last three league matches — and they have scored just once in their last four EPL matches. They have a mere 6.36 expected goals (xG) in their last four matches. What is going on? Two things. First, manager Jurgen Klopp has his team playing less aggressively in the press since the injury to center back Virgil Van Dijk. The Reds have a strong expected goals allowed mark of 1.10 since Van Dijk’s injury. Liverpool has allowed only three goals in their last six matches with three clean sheets — so Klopp’s adjustment has been effective in tightening things up for them after experiencing some vulnerabilities in the back. But it has taken a toll on the potency of their attack. Second, the Reds’ attackers are not in form. Mo Salah is in a slump. He is averaging only 0.36 non-penalty kick expected goals per match this season — and he has not registered even one shot inside the six-yard box. It has been a very busy schedule for these players with the late start of the season — fatigue is an issue. And don’t discount the possibility that Salah’s positive COVID test did not take a toll on his health and stamina. COVID clearly had a negative impact on the Cleveland Brown’s Myles Garrett who saw his elite play decline when he turned to action. Sadio Mane has not been in his top form either while Roberto Firmino has been in decline for over a calendar year. In their last four matches, they are averaging 1.34 xG per match which is well below the 2.07 xG they averaged in their first 14 games. The slide has been taking place before the festive schedule as well. In their last nine EPL matches, the Reds are averaging 1.56 xG per 95 minutes which is a sharp decline from the 2.53 xG they had before that. Burnley has played four straight matches with 1-0 final results. The Clarets have seen no more than two combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Burnley plays a compact defensive system that makes it difficult for opponents to penetrate. They have allowed only five goals in their last eight matches across all competitions including limiting the powerful Man United attack to just 1.41 xG. In their last seven league matches since their embarrassing 5-0 loss at Man City, the Clarets have not allowed more than one goal in a match while registering three clean sheets. But this focus on defense makes the Burnley attack toothless. The Clarets have scored only nine times this season which is the fewest in the EPL — and their 13.88 xG is second-to-last. They have been blanked in their last two matches after registering a mere 0.44 xG against West Ham on Saturday.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool does get center back Joel Matip back for this match — and that will allow Klopp to move Jordan Henderson back to the middle field position where he is one of the best holding midfielders in the world. This development makes the Reds defensive cohesion even better. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw when they played at Anfield last year when the Liverpool attack was in better form. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D6-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle United last Wednesday. Southampton (W7-D5-L4) is winless in their last four matches after their 0-0 draw with West Ham United last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: If this was football and I saw two teams coming off scoreless games (or uber-low scoring), I would be skeptical of taking the Under. But soccer is different — the total has fallen given market pressures in response to the recent scores. In fact, there are a lot more 3.25s out there than there were at my bedtime last night when there were 3s and 2.75s. These are two sides struggling with their form in the attack while simultaneously very deliberating playing a more cautious approach. Southampton played a nil-nil draw with Fulham in their previous match where they only generated 0.33 expected goals (xG). They did get their best striker, Danny Ings, back last week. Yet this remains a team that is averaging only 1.10 xG per match this season which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. The Saints were always due to see some regression from the strong scoring numbers over the summer in Project Restart. They have now not scored in three straight matches. But they are playing better defensively with two straight clean sheets. They have an expected goals allowed per game mark of 1.25 xGA. They have held their last five opponents to 1.0 or lower xG. The high press of manager Ralph Hassenhuttl is being deployed more judiciously this season. Keep Alex McCarthy is out because of COVID but his backup is Ben Forster who is a quality keeper with years of starting experience in the EPL (that knowledge is the small reward of years of playing EPL fantasy …). Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara returned for that match against Newcastle — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds had allowed 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league — and that was before holding the Magpies to just 0.79 xG. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their eleven league matches — and they have four clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those eleven league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous three matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their eight EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today against a quality side that will burn them in the counterattack.

FINAL TAKE: Klopp’s tactics usually work against Southampton. They have held the Saints to only two goals in their last eight matches with six clean sheets. Maybe Southampton scores — but I don’t see this Liverpool offense bagging more than two goals on the road. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D5-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw against West Brom on Sunday. Newcastle (W5-D3-L6) is winless in their last three matches after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara might be fit enough to return — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Even if Thiago cannot take the pitch, this game should still be a lower-scoring match. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds are allowing 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their ten league matches — and they have three clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those ten league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their seven EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today. Newcastle is third-to-last in the EPL with 1.14 expected goals (xG) per match. The Magpies will be without two of their more talented offensive players in this match with Allan Saint-Maximin and Jamaal Lascelles injured — but manager Steve Bruce should insert Callum Wilson back into the starting XI after he did not play against Man City. Newcastle does not engage in an ambitious approach on the pitch. They have scored only seven goals in their nine home matches in the EPL this season. But their defense has been solid — they are 10th in the league by allowing 1.42 expected goals allowed (xGA) per contest.

FINAL TAKE: These are also two teams that are being worked hard right now. This is Liverpool’s third match in ten days while Newcastle is playing their fourth match in ten days. The wear and tear tires out the legs with the players having just a little less energy on the pitch. This should be a lower-scoring match with a Liverpool clean sheet very possible. 25* EPL Wednesday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D3-L4) has lost only once in their last six matches after their 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace last Wednesday. Chelsea (W6-D4-L3) has lost two straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-1 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has been very reliable on the attack this season even with their top striker, Michail Antonio, being out since November. The Hammers have scored at least one goal in fifteen of their last sixteen matches across all competitions. West Ham has generated at least 2.0 expected goals in two of their last three matches including a sharp 2.67 xG mark against Manchester United. This team is playing well with four wins and a draw in their last six EPL matches. The Hammers have scored 11 goals in their six road matches in league play. All six of these contests have seen at least three combined goals. Chelsea is desperate for a win after losing their last two matches to fall to eighth place in the EPL table. The Blues had been unbeaten in their previous fourteen matches across all competitions. This team could put up a big number against this West Ham team that has allowed 16 goals in their thirteen matches. Chelsea is tied for third in the league with 26 goals — and their expected goals mark of 23.63 is third-best in the EPL. The Blues have scored at least one goal in nine of their last eleven games across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea scored three and four goals in their first two matches of the month against Leeds United and then Sevilla in the Champions League before their recent slump where they have scored only two goals in their last three matches. The Blues have scored two more goals in seven of their thirteen league matches. They have scored 14 goals in their six home matches at Stamford Bridge. Look for them to break out of their slump in a must-win match. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W7-D4-L1) remained unbeaten in their last eleven English Premier League matches on Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. Liverpool (W7-D4-L1) comes off a disappointing 1-1 draw at Fulham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs had registered four straight clean sheets before allowing that goal to the Eagles. Tottenham leads the EPL by allowing only 10 goals this season. Manager Jose Mourinho often keeps six players back on defense in a cautious approach that finds success because of the clinical scoring prowess of Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min. But the Spurs are scoring at a rate that is unsustainable relative to the pressure they are creating. They have only 18.80 expected goals (xG) versus their 24 actual goals. On the road, they have scored 14 times despite their xG of 9.88. Six of those goals came in their 6-1 barrage victory at Old Trafford against a Man United side that gave up in the second half. In their other three wins away from home, Tottenham has scored four times despite a minuscule 1.18 combined xG in those three matches. In their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, they managed only 1.21 xG. Liverpool is dealing with a number of injuries. Defensemen Virgil Van Dijk, Joe Gomez, and Thiago Alacantara are all injured along with defensive midfielder Joe Milner. These absences have compelled manager Jurgen Klopp to change tactics with him abandoning the high line press that was the Reds’ signature over the last two seasons which brought home a Champions League and English Premier League title. Liverpool has played more conventional while taking fewer chances of going on the attack. In their last four matches across all competitions, the Reds have conceded only two goals. Yet the Reds have not scored more than one goal in five of their last six contests. Forward Sadio Mane is out-of-form which has hurt the offensive attack. And while Trent Alexander-Arnold returned from his injury last week, he is not at 100% with his offensive skill limited. Liverpool hosts this match at Anfield where they have won all six of their EPL matches this season while conceding just six times — and their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) is even better at 5.46 in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 11th in EPL action with Liverpool eking out a 1-0 victory at Tottenham Stadium in a match after Mourinho had taken over the team. Expect another cautious, low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Midweek NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Shakhtar Donetsk (224381) and Inter Milan (224382). THE SITUATION: Shakhtar Donetsk (W2-D1-L2) looks to build off their 2-0 upset win over Real Madrid in the Champions League last Tuesday. Inter Milan (W1-D2-L2) comes off a 3-2 win against Borussia Monchengladbach last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Group B remains very much in flux this afternoon with all four teams in the group still alive to take the two slots in the knockout stage Round of 16. Inter Milan begins the day in last place with 5 points. They must win this match then hope that the simultaneous Borussia Monchengladbach-Real Madrid showdown does not end in a draw. A loss would be disastrous for manager Antonio Conte since they would not even finish in third place which would qualify them for this season’s Europa League. The Nerazzurri won the Europa League last year which gave them higher aspirations for this year. They come off a 3-1 victory over Bologna in Serie A action on Saturday. Romelu Lukaku scored his 12th goal in all competitions in that match. This is a high-scoring team under Conte which does not have the defensive template that Conte deployed to win the English Premier League title with Chelsea nor his previous teams with Juventus. Inter Milan have scored at least three goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. But this club has only one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Conte’s team is getting healthy — and they get Arturo Vidal back after he was suspended for that last match with Borussia Monchengladbach after he was issued a red card in the previous Champions League match with Real Madrid. Shakhtar Donetsk comes off a 5-1 win over Minai on Saturday. They have scored 30 goals in their 12 matches in the Ukrainian top-flight league. They begin the day in second place in Group B with 7 points and owning the tie-breaker against Real Madrid who also has 7 points but lost to Shakhtar Donetsk twice. A loss would ruin their Round of 16 hopes while a draw keeps them alive only if Real Madrid does not win their match. Defense is an issue for manager Luis Castillo’s team as they have surrendered 12 goals in their five group stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the reverse fixture on October 27th. The rematch will not be scoreless — and the urgency with this contest will likely ensure plenty of goals. 25* Champions League Group Stage Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Shakhtar Donetsk (224381) and Inter Milan (224382). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Inter Milan (224250). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W1-D1-L1) defeated Inter Milan in the reverse fixture in Group B play of the Champions League on November 3rd with their 3-2 victory. Inter Milan (W0-D2-L1) hosts this rematch.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a crucial match for Inter Milan as they are currently in last place in their group with two points. Manager Antonio Conte’s side comes off a 4-2 victory at home against Torino in Serie A play on Sunday where they rallied from a 2-0 deficit with four straight goals. Led by Romelu Lukaku as their striker, the Nerazzurri are an offensive juggernaut who are tied for first place in the Italian top-flight league with 20 goals. But this team does not play the typical high-level defense that Conte’s teams enjoyed in championship runs at Juventus and then Chelsea. Inter Milan has surrendered 13 goals in their eight Serie A matches. In their last four matches, Nerazzuri has scored nine goals while allowing eight goals. They have seen nine combined goals scored in their three Champions League games. In their 2-2 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach, they generated a robust 3.51 expected goals. Real Madrid comes off a 1-1 draw at Villarreal on Saturday. Los Blancos have lost a step or two on defense as they have not registered a clean sheet in all competitions in their last eight matches. Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is dealing with some critical injuries with Karim Benzema, Sergio Ramos, and Luka Jokic all out for this match. But this is Galactico — and while this Real Madrid team is not their best in the last decade, this remains a loaded roster of scoring talent. Additionally, don’t underestimate the negative impact of losing Ramos on their backline on the Los Blancos defense. Real Madrid has scored 16 goals in their last seven matches so they are certainly capable of scoring multiple goals even with their injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid has seen at least four combined goals scored in six of their last seven matches. Los Blancos need this game as well — the urgency of the situation should push this to be a higher-scoring game. 25* Champions League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Inter Milan (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Istanbul Basakshir (224225) and Manchester United (224226). THE SITUATION: Istanbul Basakshir (W1-D0-L2) returns to Champions League action after upsetting Manchester United at home on November 4th by a 2-1 score. Man United (W2-D0-L1) hosts this reverse fixture rematch in Group H play at home at Old Trafford.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man United have developed a consistent modus operandi under manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. What do their 5-0 win over RB Leipzig and their 2-1 victory over PSG in the Champions League play have in common this season? Those triumphs were against sides that play aggressive pressing attacks which allows the Red Devils to play cautiously on defense before relying on their attacking talent to shine in the counter-attack. Yet what does Man United’s 6-1 loss to Tottenham, 1-0 loss to Arsenal, and their most recent UCL match against Istanbul Basakshir have in common? Those opponents are counter-attacking sides — and the Red Devils felt compelled to be the more aggressive team on the pitch which failed. Even in their most recent match on Saturday against lowly West Brom, they only won by a 1-0 score despite the Baggies having conceded the most goals in the English Premier League and being at the bottom of the league in expected goals allowed (xGA). Solskjaer’s job is in jeopardy because he cannot find the right lineup that is successful against even mediocre defensive counter-attacking opponents. Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood are struggling in the attack this season. Look for Solskjaer to insert more reliable defensive players in the midfield in this rematch with the hopes of securing a one or two-goal clean sheet victory. The Red Devils are playing consistently well on the defensive end of the pitch. Since the international break that started on October 20th, Man United is holding their opponents in all competitions to just 0.80 xGA which includes strong sides like PSG and RB Leipzig as well as Chelsea. They host this rematch at Old Trafford where they have held their last three opponents to just 0.40 non-penalty shot expected goals (XG). Istanbul Basakshir comes off a 32- loss to Besiktas in their last match on Saturday. The Owls play more aggressively when competing in their domestic Turkish league. Their two goals against Man United last month were their only goals in their three Champions League matches where they play more conservatively. They will likely park the bus once again in this match so they can take their chances on counter-attacks. They managed only 0.84 xG in their upset win over the Red Devils — and they had only a 0.77 xGA against them which suggests their ultra-conservative defensive approach was successful.

FINAL TAKE: I think Man United should get the clean sheet in this rematch — but I am not confident that they score the two goals necessary to cover the -1.75 goal-line spread. The better play is the Under given the Red Devils’ struggles with counter-attacking sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Group Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Istanbul Basakshir (224225) and Manchester United (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W3-D2-L2) looks to build off their 2-1 win over Everton last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Southampton (W4-D1-L2) has won four of their last five matches after they defeated Aston Villa on the road by a 4-3 score last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle does not have much of a more scoring punch — and manager Steve Bruce’s team often takes a defensive approach. The Magpies have scored only ten goals in their seven matches — and their expected goals (xG) in those contests were only 8.83. Now they go on the road where they are averaging just 0.67 xG per match for their non-penalty kick situations. Newcastle has scored four of their goals via a penalty shot which they can not rely on moving forward. The Magpies have conceded eleven goals this season as well — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) does suggest they have been a bit unfortunate with that number dropping to 10.56 xGA. Southampton has registered a clean sheet in three of their last five matches. The Saints are an underrated defensive club under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl. Southampton has conceded twelve goals this season but their xGA drops to 8.91. They have allowed five goals in their three home matches — but their xGA is just 2.73 in those matches. The Saints will be without their top scorer, Danny Ings, who is out with a knee injury that requires surgery. Ings has scored five goals this season after his breakout campaign over the summer in Project Restart. They still have Che Adams upfront — but he is not a good finisher with most of his goals being from poaching from Ings’ creativity. Southampton may have to rely on James Ward-Prowse out of the midfield.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Hasenhuttl to have his team play this match close to the vest with Ings not available. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Friday Afternoon Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W4-D0-L2) has won three straight matches across all competition that includes their 1-0 win at Arsenal last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Leeds United (W3-D1-L2) comes off a 3-0 win at Aston Villa in their last match two Fridays ago on October 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City defeated AEK Athens on Thursday by a 2-1 score in Europa League action. They also held Arsenal to just 0.96 expected goals in that blank sheet victory. After a dominant 5-2 win at Manchester City on September 27th, the Foxes have played five straight matches across all competitions that have not seen more than three combined goals scored. This team under Brendan Rodgers has become a bit more defensively-oriented. They have allowed only one goal in their last three matches in all competitions. In the EPL, they have allowed only 8 goals but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 6.97 — and that 1.20 xGA per match mark is second-best in the league. They have allowed only four non-penalty shot Big Chances this season of scoring opportunities for their opponent with at least a 35% statistical chance of scoring. But the offense has lagged. While the Foxes have scored 13 goals, their expected goals mark (xG) drops to 8.67 which suggests they have been fortunate to see those many goals scored. Leicester City has just a 0.90 xG mark per game in non-penalty kick situations. Leeds United are tied with Leicester City by allowing just four non-penalty kick Big Chances which is the third-best mark in the EPL. They have allowed 12 goals with a 1.68 xGA mark but they have played a difficult schedule which includes Man City and Liverpool. The Whites have not seen more than three combined goals in four straight matches. Their striker, Patrick Bamford, has scored six times already — but that was based on 3.4 xG which suggests he has been pretty fortunate.

FINAL TAKE: After playing two high-scoring matches against Liverpool and Fulham, manager Marcelo Bielsa, has his team playing a bit less aggressive when it comes to when his midfielders rush to join the forwards in their counter-attack. Leeds plays a unique style that has stymied the topflight competition — most of their opponents have decided to play conservatively to counter their tactics. Leicester City will likely embrace this approach and bank on a Jamie Vardy counter-attack which was how they defeated Arsenal with his goal in the 80th minute. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W2-D2-L1) enters this match coming off a 3-3 draw against West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on October 18th. Burnley (W0-D1-L3) comes off a 0-0 draw at West Bromwich on October 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spurs have established chemistry between their talent and the tactics of manager Jose Mourinho who took over midseason last year. Tottenham lead the EPL with 15 goals (even with one less match under their belts than most of the league) — and they are second in the league by averaging 2.48 expected goals per match. Harry Kane is thriving in his #10 role on the pitch as an attacking midfielder. He has scored five times already this season. But in this position, Kane has assisted on seven goals which is very much out of character for him when he was playing the #9 role higher up the pitch. Son Heung-Min is now playing that attacker role (rather than the winger role that Mourinho relegated him to during the summer’s Project Restart). Yet the Spurs remain shaky on defense. They enjoyed a 3-0 lead against the Hammers before conceding three goals in the second half to settle with the draw. They also blew a lead by conceding a late goal versus Newcastle United. Tottenham brought in a bunch of new talent in the transfer window which has impacted their cohesion — and integrating the aging Gareth Bale into the mix does not help matters. The Spurs have allowed eight goals this season — and they are allowing their opponents to register 1.48 expected goals per game. Burnley was an outstanding defensive team during the summer with a tight backline working together combining with a hot goalkeeper in Nick Pope. It has not been the same to the start of this season as the Clarets have surrendered eight goals in four matches. Burnley has allowed Newcastle score three times against them, and Leicester City score four times against them so far this season — and they conceded three goals to Manchester City in League Cup action last month. The Clarets really miss the injured Ben Mee, who anchors that backline at center back. He will not play in this match. Burnley has only scored three times this season — but they will have to play more aggressively if and when they fall behind against the Hotspurs. They were content to settle for a draw against West Brom to finally get some points this season — but this is a different challenge. The Clarets are usually more potent when playing at home at Turf Moor. Last season, Burnley scored 24 of their 42 goals at home — and 31.08 of their 49.35 expected goals (xG) came on their home pitch. The Clarets averaged 1.64 xG at home last year.

FINAL TAKE: Tottenham leads the EPL in creating Big Chances (scoring chances with at least a 38% probability of scoring given historical averages). Look for the Hotspurs to take the lead, which will compel Burnley to abandon their preferred compact approach. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L2) has lost two EPL matches in a row after their 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa last Sunday. Arsenal (W3-D0-L2) looks to rebound from their 1-0 loss at Manchester City last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I waited for confirmation of the Leicester City lineup that was released an hour before game time after being burned last week when we took the Foxes without realizing that their top scorer, Jamie Vardy, would miss the game with an injury. Those are always the dangers in the first week back in the English Premier League after the international break. Leicester City hoped to have Vardy in their Starting XI today — but while his active on their roster, he is starting on their bench. So, I expect Vardy to play around 30 minutes today. Without Vardy, the Foxes have struggled to score. Not only have they been shutout in two straight matches but they have managed only 0.57 expected goals (xG) per match in those two games. Even with Vardy, Leicester City was struggling to generate scoring chances so far this season — they are averaging just 0.92 xG in non-penalty shot chances. Three of their twelve goals this season have come via a penalty kick — and the league is not calling as many controversial handball penalties like they were last month. 47% of the Foxes expected goals this season have come from penalty kicks. Manager Brendan Rodgers is dealing with a host of injuries besides Vardy — most notably defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi and center back Caglar Soyuncu. Rodgers has his team playing more cautiously to compensate for their absence on the pitch. Leicester City is allowing only 1.26 expected goals (xGA) this season. Arsenal is playing pretty solid defense themselves with an xGA of 1.38 this season even after playing two of the most prolific attacks in the league on the road already in Liverpool and Man City. The Gunners added defensive midfielder Thomas Partey in the transfer window from the defensive juggernaut that is Atletico Madrid. Manager Mikel Arteta has his team playing a defensive-first style with their offense coming from counter-attacks. Arsenal has managed only 39 shots on goal in their five matches for a 7.8 average per game which is third-lowest in the EPL. The Gunners are averaging only 1.28 xG per game.

FINAL TAKE: Arsenal’s approach has neutralized the activity and effectiveness of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has managed only six shots all season after scoring 22 goals last season. This shapes up to be a low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W3-D1-L1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 loss to Cadiz last Saturday in their most recent La Liga match. Barcelona (W2-D1-L1) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss to Getafe last Saturday in their last La Liga contest.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these Spanish giants limp into the first incarnation of El Clasico for the 2020-21 campaign. Real Madrid was stunned to lose to Cadiz at home last week against a newly promoted side to La Liga. Los Blancos followed that up on Wednesday with a shocking 3-2 loss to Shaktar Donetsk at home in Champions League play. What’s up? Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is not working very hard — and they appear jaded and a bit lackadaisical after using Project Restart over the summer to win the 2019-20 La Liga campaign. Many elite teams in Europe have struggled with their intensity with the return to league play this fall. Real Madrid is struggling to score. They have scored only six goals in their last five league matches. The ever-disappointing Eden Hazard is dealing with a leg injury that has kept him off the pitch. Benzema and Toni Kroos are out of form. This problem on offense goes deeper than this season. Over their last fourteen matches, Los Blancos have eight single-goal wins with a nil-nil draw and a single-goal defeat. They have only had three victories over that span by two goals. But Zidane’s group is still playing outstanding defense. They allowed just 1.04 expected goals in their winning 2019-20 La Liga campaign — and they are close to that level so far this season with their 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They did not have their rock on their defensive backline for the midweek Champions League match in Sergio Ramos who should be fit to play in this crucial rivalry game. Barcelona has embraced a youth movement under first-year manager Ronaldo Koeman. The Dutch coach brings a defensive-approach to Camp Nou — the Blaugranas have an outstanding 1.03 xGA in league play so far this season. But Barca is generating only 0.90 xG in their last three matches. Lionel Messi is not in form after wanting to exit the team in the offseason. Messi has not scored in his last five matches against Real Madrid. This team was outmuscled by Getafe last weekend in a match where they struggled to find scoring opportunities — they managed a mere 0.92 xG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the match at Camp Nou last season. Real Madrid won the rematch by a 2-0 score at home later in the season — but that was another low-scoring match. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* La Liga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W2-D1-L2) enters this match looking to rebound from their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton on Monday in English Premier League action. Aston Villa (W4-D0-L0) remains the only EPL team with a perfect record with their 1-0 win at Leicester City last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Villans were one of the worst defensive teams in the EPL for much of last season — but manager Dean Smith made a tactical change after the March shutdown of action. When Aston Villa returned to play for Project Restart, they played less aggressively with a fourth defender in their backline. Since that time through last week, the Villans are holding their opponents to just 6.2 shots in the box per game along with only 1.2 Big Chances per game. Those are remarkable improvements when compared to the 12.2 shots per box and 3.1 Big Chances per game they allowed last season before the shutdown. Aston Villa has allowed only two goals this season — and the 3.71 expected goals allowed (xGA) from the deeper analytics is the best defensive mark in the league. The Villans have also scored 12 goals this season — but the metrics suggest they are overachieving since their expected goals (xG) mark drops to 6.79 xG. Seven of Aston Villa’s 12 goals came from their 7-2 blowout win over Liverpool which was very impressive — but the Reds also took their foot off the pedal in that embarrassing loss. In their 1-0 victory over Leicester City, they only managed 0.92 xG. The Villans have also benefited from playing a Fulham team that is perhaps the worst defensive team in the league — three of their goals come from that match. Leeds United held Wolverhampton to just 0.48 xG in their 1-0 loss to begin the week. Manager Marcelo Bielsa has his team play an aggressive style where the entire midfield joins the forwards in the times they go on the counter-attack. But after wild 4-3 matches against Liverpool and Fulham which they split, Bielsa has had his team be more cautious when embracing their counter-attack. In the Whites last three matches, only four combined goals have been scored with Leeds scoring twice and conceding twice. Two of these matches ended in a clean sheet including the Whites 1-0 victory over Sheffield United. With defensive midfielder Kalvin Phillips out for this match, look for Leeds to be even more judicious for when they decide to bring the house in their counter-attacks.

FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa remains a defense-first side under Smith. This match should follow the recent trends for both teams to be a lower-scoring game. 25* EPL Friday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W2-D0-L0) remained undefeated so far for the 2020-21 English Premier League campaign with their 4-2 win over Burnley last Sunday. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) opened their EPL campaign last Monday with their 3-1 victory on the road at Wolverhampton.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was impressive on Monday to score three times against a Wolves team that led the EPL last season with just 27 non-penalty kick Big Chances conceded. Wolverhampton’s compact style makes them one of the most difficult teams to score against yet the Cityzens scored three times in their building at Molineaux. Now Man City turns home where they scored 57 times last season in 19 contests for a 3.0 goals-per-game scoring average. The underlying metrics support their offensive prowess at home as their expected goals (xG) were 2.67 xG per game at home at the Etihad Stadium. Over their last ten games at home, Man City has scored 26 goals. They are dealing with injuries. Both forwards, Gabriel Jesus, and Sergio Aguero are dealing with injuries. When both these forwards are out, manager Pep Guardiola usually places Raheem Sterling in the attacker role where he is comfortable playing (this is his role with the English national team). But what has me sold on the Over is that Guardiola plans to deploy midfielder Kevin DeBruyne higher up the pitch in an attacking position. DeBruyne is an assists-machine who also can score goals with his powerful kicks — it is just that he also helps the defense out when controlling the middle of the field. Phil Foden should also be in the Starting XI given these injuries — and he is a strong offensive player. But playing KDB higher up the pitch further exposes a vulnerable Man City defense. They allowed 37 Big Chances last season with teams being able to effectively counter their aggressive pressing tactics. The Cityzens are also missing some key defensive pieces in defensive midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and defenseman Aymeric LaPorte. Man City made some nice transfers in the offseason to help fortify their defense — but it may be too early to see those players join the pitch. This team is not likely to enjoy a clean sheet. Leicester City has already scored seven goals so far this season in their first two matches. Led by Jamie Vardy and his 23 goals last year, the Foxes had an impressive 1.89 expected goals mark in their nineteen matches on the road in the EPL.

FINAL TAKE: I have concerns about the Leicester City defense this season. They lost defender Ben Chilwell in the transfer market to Chelsea in the offseason. To compound matters, they will be without holding midfielder Wilfried Ndidi for a few months to injury. Ndidi is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world — and his absence last season directly related to the collapse of their hot start in the first half of the season. The Foxes should score on the counter-attack — but Man City should be good for 2-3 goals (at least) playing at home with DeBruyne tasked in an offensive role for this one. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200041) and Wolverhampton (200042). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W0-D0-L0) makes their 2020-21 English Premier League debut this afternoon after not playing last week given scheduling requirements ensuring a handful of teams a sufficient break after completing 2019-20 competition last month that was delayed due to COVID-19. Wolverhampton (W1-D0-L0) did play last week as they defeated Sheffield United last Monday by a 2-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City was a scoring machine last year — they averaged 2.67 expected goals (xG) per match. In their last five EPL contests, they scored 21 combined goals. They also scored at least two goals in their last five EPL matches on the road. But the weakness of this team was they would allow too many Big Chances by their opponents usually when becoming vulnerable by counter-attacks to their constant pressing approach. The Cityzens allowed 37 non-penalty kick Big Chances last season representing scoring opportunities with a better than 35% chance of success. To compound matters for this match, they will be without their best backline defender from last season in Aymeric Laporte who is recovering from a positive COVID-19 test. Man City will also be without Sergio Aguero and midfielder Ilkay Gundagon — but I do not expect these absences to impact their potent offensive attack. Gabriel Jesus is more than capable to take Aguero’s striker role as he did all last summer after the restart — and Raheem Sterling usually steps up his attacking ambitions when Aguero is not on the pitch. And Phil Foden is expected to play of Gundagon who is more active as an offensive player but not quite as skilled defensively. Man City saw at last nine combined goals scored in nine of their last ten league matches. Wolverhampton generated a solid 1.87 xG in their win over a defensive-minded Sheffield United last Monday. But despite the clean sheet, they did display vulnerabilities in their defense with the Blades xG being at 1.03. The Wolves then played midweek last Thursday in a 1-0 loss to Stoke City in Carabou Cup action. While manager Nuno Espirito Santo did not play his best forward, Raul Jimenez, in that match, he did use six of his usual starters, which risks them being a bit fatigued for this match. A tired Wolverhampton team may leave them not quite as stout defensively.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton are a fantastic counter-attacking team — and this is the system that tends to give Man City the most trouble since it is designed to take advantage of the high-pressing powerful attacking teams. When these two teams played at Molineaux last season, the Cityzens raced out to a 2-0 lead before the Wolves responded with three straight goals to pull off the home upset. Look for another higher-scoring match. 10* EPL Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200041) and Wolverhampton (200042). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (0-0-0) returns to the pitch after tying to 3rd place in the English Premier League last month with Manchester United. Brighton (0-0-0) staved off relegation in Project Restart this summer with 41 points which were seven points clear but still finished only 15th in the EPL table.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea made a dynamic splash into the transfer market after the EPL season finally concluded. They had already signed defensive midfielder Hakim Ziyech in the winter period and they fortified their leaky defense with a nice signing of Thiago Silva from Paris-Saint Germain but he is not likely to start yet for this team today. But the signings that drew more attention were the blockbuster deals that brought over Timo Werner and Kai Havertz from the German Bundesliga. These two young offensive dynamos combined to score 52 goals in the Bundesliga last season. Werner will play the attacker position where he thrived for RB Leipzig. Werner has been on my radar since starring for the German national team in the 2017 Confederations Cup — he is the heir apparent to Robert Lewandowski who was the top scorer for Bayern Munich’s Champions League victories club last month. Werner will be a Golden Boot contender this season. But it is Havertz who may still be the more exciting player. At 6’2, he is a matchup nightmare who played in the midfield for Bayer Leverkusen but can also take on the attacker role. These two join a group that was already a high-scoring team in the EPL. The Blues scored 69 goals last year but their expected goals were +9.3 higher at 78.3 xG. Adding two technicians to the mix like Werner and Havertz will help get the actual goals closer to the expected goals mark. Christian Pulisic is dealing with a knock and not likely to play — but Chelsea has an abundance of riches in offensive talent even without him or Willian who they let go sign with Arsenal. The Blues will miss holding midfielder Mateo Kovacic for this contest which will hurt their defensive presence. Defense is an issue — while they scored ten goals in their five road games after the restart, they conceded fourteen goals in those matches. Brighton should score in this one. They only scored 39 goals last year but their xG was +8.42 goals higher at a 47.24 xG clip. They averaged 1.40 xG per match. But they also had an expected goals allowed mark of 60.42 which was +6.42 goals more than the 54 they allowed last year.

FINAL TAKE: The Seagulls allowed 12 goals in their five home matches after the return to action in July. The offensive talent for Chelsea is outstanding — and Werner has already established chemistry with Havertz playing for German national teams over the years. I do worry about the team chemistry for the Blues when it comes to stopping their opponents. The Chelsea issues on defense will likely continue — and their hotshot goalkeeper they just signed will not be on the pitch yet for this one. 25* English Premier League Monday Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset victory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are a defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. But that does make the Bavarians vulnerable in the back themselves. Lyon had scoring chances on Wednesday — they generated 1.74 expected goals despite failing to put the ball in the back of the net. Paris Saint-Germain will likely take advantage of these scoring opportunities. They averaged 2.41 expected goals per game in their Champions League contests. They were trailing 1-0 late in their Quarterfinals match against Atalanta — but getting Kylian Mbappe back on the pitch who did not start because of an injury made all the difference for Les Parisians as he jumpstarted the PSG attack with the necessary two late goals to steal that game. Mbappe was back in full force than last Saturday in helping to lead PSG to their easy 3-0 victory over a strong defensive side in RB Leipzig. And all this commentary about PSG has yet to mention Neymar who has the opportunity in this match to make the case that he is the best player in the world. Neymar may be “due” to score a goal after generating 1.68 expected goals in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals without getting the ball in the back of the net.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams with dynamic offensive attacks. Sometimes these championship games tend to be lower-scoring affairs with both teams playing cautiously — but that is a style that neither team is most comfortable playing. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224229) and Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:  Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 expected goals (xG). Since the return to play, the Bavarians have scored 37 goals in their twelve matches. Over the last three competitive non-friendly matches, they have scored 12 times. While Bayern Munich has ten players on their roster that have scored at least four goals this season, they are led by striker Robert Lewandowski who has averaged an incredible 1.4 expected goals per 90 minutes of play. And while the appointment of manager Hansi Flick paid dividends with improved play on defense given his tactical and lineup changes, teams can score on the Bavarians. Chelsea was undermanned last week without Christian Pulisic and Willian in their attack. Bayer Leverkusen scored twice against them in both their Bundesliga fixtures which resulted in 4-2 victories for the Bavarians. Tottenham and Borussia Monchengladbach also scored against this team since the appointment of Setien. There is a very good chance that this Barcelona team led by Lionel Messi will exploit the aggressive high-press that Flick likes to deploy. Despite the final score, Barca was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They were playing without the suspended Arturo Vidal and Sergio Busquets so getting them back on the pitch will help the Barcelona attack. And if Barca falls behind early in this match, look for manager Quique Setien to turn to his young rising stars in Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati who possess dynamic offensive skills. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG.

FINAL TAKE: With both these teams deploying open and aggressive styles, expect a higher scoring match. 10* Champions League Bayern Munich-Barcelona O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224229) and Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain reached the Quarterfinals of the Championship League back in March when they defeated Borussia Dortmund by a 2-0 score on March 11th to defeat them by an aggregate 3-2 score. Atalanta qualified for the Quarterfinals of this tournament the day before on March 10th when they defeated Valencia by a 4-3 score to win that Round of 16 contest by an aggregate 8-4 score. Given the pandemic, the two-leg knockout stage format where both teams host a match has been replaced with a single game elimination process played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal. This match will take place at Estadio da Luz which is the home stadium for Benfica.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paris Saint-Germain is an offensive juggernaut. Their 3.33 expected goals (xG) average is the highest mark of the top-five professional leagues in Europe. They are led by Neymar who has scored 12 goals in PSG’s last sixteen Knockout Stage matches. Les Parisiens are undermanned in this match with Angel Di Maria suspended for this contest while Kylian Mbappe and Marco Verrati dealing with injuries. Mbappe suffered his knock in the team’s last match which was a 1-0 victory in a friendly over Sochaux on August 5th. Rust is a factor for this team since they have played only two matches in five months after Ligue 1 canceled the remainder of their season in March when COVID-19 hit. This lack of cohesion may impact the qualify of their defense more than their offensive attack. In the Champions League this season, PSG generated 2.23 xG in those matches. However, they also saw their expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 1.18 which was almost 33% higher than the 0.81 xGA they enjoyed in Ligue 1 play. PSG has scored at least one goal in thirty-two straight Champions League matches going back to the 2015-16 campaign. Atalanta finished in 3rd place in Serie A just 5 points behind Juventus who won the top-flight Italian professional league. La Dea did have the best season in Serie A according to the expected goals as they topped the league in expected points (xPTS). Atalanta’s strength lies in their offensive attack as the led Serie A by generating 2.31 xG per match. La Dea scored 98 goals in league play this season which was the third-highest mark in the top-five European professional leagues. But this team is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed the most goals in the Champions League of the eight teams still competing for the championship. Atalanta’s Champions League opponents this season has generated an alarming 2.01 xG. To compound matters, La Dea will be without their top keeper in Pierluigi Gollini due to injury which means they will be relying on Marco Sportello who made only five starts in league play this season. Atalanta will also be without their top scorer, Josip Illicic, who did not rejoin the team this summer — but manager Gian Piero Gasperini has plenty of offensive talent at his disposal. This team was W21-D3-L1 in their twenty-five road matches across all competitions this season where they scored at least two goals in eighteen of those matches.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and both of these teams prefer to play in a proactive and open style. These are two teams that rely on their offensive attacks. Expect plenty of goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210) in the second-leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the first-leg of this duel at Stamford Bridge by a 3-0 score back on February 25th. Chelsea now has to travel to Allianz Arena in Munich needing to both upset the Bavarians while winning by at least three goals to win advance to the Quarterfinals next week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: A theoretical 3-0 Chelsea victory would force penalty kicks with the aggregate score being 3-3 with both teams scoring three goals on the road (the first tiebreaker). But it is highly unlikely that the Blues will shutout this explosive Bayern Munich side. The Bavarians averaged 2.80 expected goals per game in Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal domestic contests this season which is the second-highest mark of any team playing in one of the top-five European Leagues (PSG leads in that metric). Bayern Munich has scored at least four goals in five of their last ten competitive matches (non-friendlies). Manager Hansi Flick has indicated that his top players will take part in this match despite the big lead from the first leg since he needs to build up their fitness for their likely Quarterfinals match next week. Defense has been a big concern for this Chelsea team all season — they had an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.23 xGA this season. The Blues are also missing some of their key defensive pieces for this contest as well. Not only did Chelsea blow a 1-0 lead against Arsenal last Sunday in their 2-1 loss to Arsenal in the English FA Cup Final but they also suffered a number of costly injuries. Defenseman Cesar Azpilicueta was injured in that match and will not be able to play this afternoon. N’bolo Kante did not play last week with an injury that may keep him out in this one. Even worse, defenseman Marco Alonso and defensive midfielder Jorginho are suspended for this game given yellow cards. Chelsea is also missing Christian Pulisic and Pedro who got injured last week but manager Frank Lampard still has the services of forward Olivier Giroud. With the goalie issues Lampard has with both Kepa Arrizabalaga and Willy Caballero both underperforming when compared to typical replacement level keepers. The Blues will need to play aggressively to have much of a chance.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are likely to score in this contest with Chelsea only being blanked once in their last fifteen matches and Bayern Munich having played seventeen straight competitive matches where they scored at least one goal. The Bavarians have seen at least four combined goals in six of their last ten competitive matches as well. The Blues are not a team that will park the bus. Even when getting shutout in the first leg of this showdown, they generated 1.16 xG while allowing Bayern Munich to register 3.12 xG. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200169) and Manchester United (200170). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W10-D7-L19) has won two straight matches after their 3-1 win at home against Watford last Friday. Manchester United (W17-D11-L8) looks to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to Chelsea on Sunday in the Semifinals of the English FA Cup.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man United saw their nineteen- game unbeaten streak across all competitions snapped in that loss to the Blues but they remain unbeaten in their last twelve matches in EPL play. They have scored 27 goals in those last twelve league games — and they have scored 19 goals in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart. With the return of the injured Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford this summer to a team that signed star midfielder Bruno Fernandes in the winter transfer period, the Red Devils are now loaded with offensive talent. Their defensive play has been a bit overrated despot thirteen clean sheets in their last twenty matches across all competitions. Since the return to play, they have only played two opponents in Tottenham and Sheffield United with top-ten scoring offenses in their seven EPL matches. And while they have surrendered just six goals in their twelve league games since acquiring Fernandes, the expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 12.45 over that span. Manchester United should generate plenty of scoring chances in this match — they are averaging more than three big chances representing opportunities with at least a 35% success rate since the return. West Ham has scored seven goals in their last two matches with manager David Moyes pushing the right buttons to get his offense going. Moyes moved midfielder Michail Antonio to the striker role where he has thrived with seven goals in Project Restart. He has benefited with the addition of winger Jarrod Bowen who was signed in the winter transfer period — Bowen has an assist in four of his last five games. The Hammers have scored at least two goals in four of their last five games while scoring twelve goals over that span. But defense remains an issue for this team as they have allowed six goals in those last five games — and they have surrendered ten goals in their seven EPL matches since the restart. West Ham has just one clean sheet in their last sixteen league matches going back to January 1st. They go back on the road where they are allowing 2.08 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 2-0 score back on September 22nd. But the Hammers have allowed 23 goals this season in their eleven matches against Big Six sides. West Ham still would like a result to clinch avoiding relegation this season — and Man United is in a dogfight for one of the top four spots in the table to qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League. Expect a higher scoring match. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between the West Ham United (200169) and Manchester United (200170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 1-0 win at Leicester City. Manchester United earned their right to play in the FA Cup Semifinals the day before when they defeated Norwich City on the road by a 2-1 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea comes off a 1-0 win at home over Norwich City on Tuesday. While the Blues scored just one goal against the already-relegated Canaries (who were parking the bus in that match — they had only two shots in the entire match), the deeper metrics suggest that they were unfortunate with their expected goals mark of 2.77 xG. With the return to health of Christian Pulisic, Chelsea has been transformed into a potent scoring team that is energized when the 20-year old American is on the pitch. He has formed a nice combination with fellow midfielder Willian along with their veteran forward Olivier Giroud. The Blues have scored 13 goals in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart — and they are averaging a robust 2.34 expected goals (xG) per game. Lampard deploys a high-press on the opponent’s side of the field to generate more scoring opportunities. But one of the reasons why the rookie manager deploys this tactic is to compensate for the lack of defensive talent in their backline. Chelsea has allowed 11 goals in their seven league matches since the return. They have looked very shaky against less than offensive juggernauts as of late. Sheffield United generated 2.56 expected goals in a 3-0 loss to the Blades in their last road game. West Ham produced a 2.6 xG as well with meager offensive teams in Crystal Palace and Aston Villa also enjoyed 1.3 and 1.2 xG marks since the restart. To compound matters, Lampard will not have the services of one of the best holding midfielders in the world in N’Golo Kante who is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Their Blues defense has been good at home with opponents generating just a 0.83 xG at Stamford Bridge — but in that mark rises to a 1.59 xGA clip in their eighteen EPL matches on the road. And since Project Restart, Chelsea has an ugly 2.05 xGA when playing on the road. Additionally, the Blues have seen 27 combined goals scored in their nine league matches against Big Six sides. Manchester United has been a scoring machine since the return to play as they have found the back of the net 21 times in their eight matches across all competitions. With Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba healthy again and joining the winter transfer signing of Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils are suddenly loaded with offensive talent. And while Man United has allowed only six goals in the twelve league matches they have played since Fernandes joined the team, their expected goals allowed (xGA) during that span double to a 12.45 mark. The Red Devils’ defense is not quite as good as the numbers indicate (thirteen clean sheets in their last nineteen games across all competitions). The only two teams they have played since the restart ranked in the top-ten in the EPL in scoring have been Tottenham and Southampton and both have scored against them. They are also undermanned on defense for this match with Luke Shaw and Brandon Williams both dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times this season with both EPL matches along with an English League Cup match in October — and Man United scored eight goals in those three matches. While I do not expect the Blues’ defense to play much better in this fourth contest, they should score more goals with Pulisic integrated into the offense. In their only match in 2020 back in February, Chelsea peppered the Red Devils with 17 shots and a 1.36 xG mark despite being failing to score in that contest. 25* FA Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200177) and Norwich City (200178). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W14-D9-L13) has suffered only one loss in their last fourteen EPL matches with their 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton on Wednesday. Norwich City (W5-D6-L25) has lost nine straight games across all competitions with their 1-0 loss at Chelsea on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Norwich City has nothing to play for having been officially been relegated back to the Championship League. Daniel Farke has been with the franchise for three years so there is a pretty good chance he will remain the Canaries manager next season by Sporting Director Stuart Webber. Farke appears to have his team embracing defensive tactics after his squad is last in the EPL in goals allowed. Norwich City has not allowed more than two goals in four of their last six games. But the consequences of these changes has been to stifle the Canaries offensive activity. Norwich City has scored only twice in their eight matches since the return to action — and they have scored just once in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart. In their loss to the Blues on Tuesday, the Canaries managed just a microscopic 0.06 expected goals (xG) mark with just two shot attempts with neither on target. Norwich City has the fewest big chances consisting of opportunities with at least a 35% success rate since the return to play last month while managing zero big chances and just three shots in the box over their last two contests. This problem did not just begin in Project Restart. After a 2-2 draw with Tottenham on December 28th, the Canaries have scored just five combined goals in their next sixteen matches. Teemu Pukki was an offensive juggernaut for this team early in the season but he has not scored since January 22nd — and he may not even play in this match after not starting against Chelsea since he is probably not in the team’s future plans next year. Norwich City returns home to Carrow Road where they have scored just 19 times in their eighteen EPL matches. And in their twelve home games against non-Big Six sides, the Canaries have scored only nine goals. Burnley has scored only six goals in their seven EPL matches since the return while posting a meager 0.92 xG. But the Clarets have very tough to score on as they have allowed only eight goals in those contests. Manager Sean Dyche has his team play a very disciplined and compact system that emphasizes defense — and he may have the hottest keeper in the EPL in Nick Pope who has registered fourteen clean sheets this season. Pope was brilliant for Burnley in the team’s last game on the road which ended in a 1-1 draw with the newly crowned EPL champions in Liverpool. The Clarets go back on the road where they have only scored three goals in their last five matches. They did suffer a 5-0 loss at Manchester City in their first game in Project Restart but Dyche fielded a young and inexperienced starting XI in that contest after dealing with some injuries and key absences given contract disputes (and he was sending a message to management that he needed help with the depth of his roster). Burnley can struggle against the elite teams in the league with huge talent disparities — but they are unbeaten in their last road games against non-Big Six sides with four victories. They only scored five goals in those six games but they allowed just two goals.

FINAL TAKE: Over their last six matches since that embarrassment at Man City, the Clarets have allowed only three goals while scoring six times. Pope has three clean sheets over that span leading his team to three 1-0 victories with the other three results being 1-1 draws. Those last six matches for Burnley have not seen more than two combined goals scored. Now facing a Norwich City team having so many difficulties in scoring, expect another lower scoring match. 10* EPL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200177) and Norwich City (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200125) and Arsenal (200126). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W30-D3-L2) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley on Saturday. Arsenal (W12-D14-L9) is winless in their last two matches after their 2-1 loss at Tottenham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is struggling with their attack. They managed just 0.72 expected goals (xG) against the Spurs while failing to generate a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. They have scored only eleven goals in their seven league matches since the restart — and their 1.18 xG mark over that span is just 13th best in the EPL. Furthermore, the Gunners have managed only 0.86 non-penalty kick Big Chances per game since the return to play which is also 13th in the league. Some of this lackluster offensive performance is due to manager Mikel Arteta having his team take on more counter-attacking tendencies after prioritizing more defensive tactics to compensate for a lack of elite defenders on their backline. They have allowed only eight goals in their seven EPL matches since the restart with a solid 1.22 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They return home to the Emirates where they have allowed only one goal in their last three home matches. Overall, Arsenal has surrendered only 21 goals in their seventeen home matches. But it will be difficult for the Gunners to score in this match. They have a meager 5.62 xG combined mark in their seven matches against teams in the top-four in the standings. And with the FA Cup Semifinals coming up on Saturday, don’t be surprised if their best attacker, Pierre-Emerice Aubameyag is benched to provide him rest for that match. Liverpool has allowed just six goals in their six matches in Project Restart — but they have managed to score only ten times during that stretch. The dirty little secret with the new EPL champions is that they have not been a devastating team when playing away from Anfield as of late. They broke a scoreless drought lasting longer than five matches across all competitions in their last game on the road with their 3-1 win at Brighton and Hove Albion. With manager Jurgen Klopp still looking to have his team break the EPL record for most points in a season, look for his best starting XI for this contest with the Reds needing to win each of their last three matches. Liverpool has allowed only 14 goals in their seventeen league matches on the road. The Reds have also allowed just nine goals in their eight matches against Big Six sides — but they have scored only four goals in their four road games against Big Six teams.

FINAL TAKE: Arsenal had produced three straight clean sheets before failing to win their last two matches where they scored only two combined goals. Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on August 24th last year by a 3-1 score but this should be a lower scoring contest. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200125) and Arsenal (200126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W24-D8-L3) has won all eight of their matches since the restart after they defeated Alaves by a 2-0 score on Friday. Granada (W14-D8-L13) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they defeated Real Sociedad on the road last Friday by a 3-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid may be the best defensive squad in Europe. They have registered five straight clean sheets since blanking Alaves on Friday —  and they did that despite allowing their guests to register 1.20 expected goals (xG) which were their highest expected goals allowed (xGA) since the restart. Los Blancos were playing without their rock in the middle of their defensive line in Sergio Ramos for that contest but he should be back on the pitch after getting that match off to rest. Real Madrid has allowed only two goals in these last eight matches — and their 0.62 xGA per match is best in the league over that span. Los Blancos have held six of these last eight opponents to below a 1.0 xG mark. But scoring can be an issue for this team. Five of their fifteen goals since the return have been from Ramos which does speak to his greatness — but it is not a great sign when a defenseman is scoring 33% of your goals. Only the brilliant Karim Benzema is averaging at least 0.40 xG per 90 minutes of the Real Madrid attacking players since the return to play. Yet manager Zinedine Zidane is content to continue to play pragmatically and grind out lower-scoring matches. Their last five matches have seen two victories by 2-0 scores with three wins by narrow 1-0 margins. This is probably the formula for success that Zidane foresees for next month’s Championship League campaign with juggernaut offensive units like Bayern Munich, Manchester City, and PSG among the main challenges (and they need to rally against the Cityzens in the second leg of that Round of Sixteen showdown). Real Madrid goes back on the road where they have scored only five goals in their last five matches. Granada is a defensive-minded team that may very well play with five defenders in their back-line for this showdown. El Grana was very fortunate to score three goals on Friday on just four shots on target — their xG was a meager 0.61 in that match. Granada has scored only twelve goals in their eight matches since the return — but they have held those eight opponents to just ten goals. They expected goals metrics indicate those numbers are indicative of El Grana’s play on both ends of the pitch as they have averaged 1.33 xG along with 1.23 xGA in those contests. They host this match at Nuevo Los Carmenes Stadium where they have scored only 21 times in their seventeen home matches. But they have surrendered just 14 goals in those seventeen games which are good for a 0.82 goals-per-game allowed average — and their xGA of 1.01 in those contests is also outstanding. Furthermore, in their seven matches against teams in the top half of the league standings, they have a low 7.81 xGA mark which makes their 9.0 xG in those seven games quite competitive.

FINAL TAKE: Granada has become a very tough “out” at home with a 2-0 upset victory over Barcelona and a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on their resume this season. El Grana has much to play for now besides being in the role of spoiler as they are just three points out of 6th place beginning the day. Real Madrid needs two victories in their last three contests to clinch the league title — but things could get nervy for this squad playing on the road against a feisty defensive side. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D5-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Everton on Thursday. Manchester United (W16-D10-L8) is unbeaten in their last seventeen matches across all competitions after they defeated Aston Villa on the road last Thursday by a 3-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester United as an offensive juggernaut right now having scored fourteen goals over their last four matches. The winter transfer addition of Bruno Fernandes has done wonders for this team to stabilize their midfield — and getting healthy again with the three-months of stoppage of play allowed both Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba to return to the pitch to make this Red Devils attack explode. Anthony Martial is a feisty forward who is benefitting from the presence of Rashford, Fernandes, and Pogba while 18-year old Mason Greenwood is suddenly thriving as another attacker with this embarrassment of riches for manager Gunnar Solskjaer. Man United has been a streaky team under Solskjaer who has been under fire — but he has been smart enough to not rock the boat with a good thing going so I do not expect lineup changes for this match (perhaps midweek). The Red Devils have scored seventeen goals in their six matches across all competitions since the return to play. They return home to Old Trafford where they have scored 37 goals in their seventeen league matches. They are also averaging a healthy 1.97 expected goals in those contests — and keep in mind that these seasonal numbers include playing half the season without Fernandes while dealing with the off-and-on injuries to Rashford and Pogba’s almost season-long absence. In their last four home games in league contests, the Red Devils have scored 13 times. And while Man United’s defense has been strong since the return, there have been some cracks in that armor. They surrendered two goals to a struggling Bournemouth side with that expected goals allowed (xGA) number being 1.97 xGA. They have allowed 24 goals in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides this season while conceding 11 goals in their twelve home matches against these clubs — so I do not expect them to keep a clean sheet in this match. Southampton has scored eight goals in their five matches since the return with attacker Danny Ings supplying five of those goals. Inge has 19 goals on the season to find himself in the Golden Boot race for most goals scored in the EPL this season. The Saints should have seen at least another goal in that match at Everton with their xG of 2.30 in that contest. Under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl, the team plays an aggressive high press which creates more scoring opportunities while leaving them vulnerable in the back. This team is not going to park the bus — besides, they would love to feed Ings more scoring chances to help his Golden Boot chances. Hasenhuttl is convinced this approach is what is best for his team — and they did just upset Man City by a 1-0 score. But while they produced the clean sheet against the two-time defending champions, they were quite fortunate with that result considering that they gave up an xGA of 3.53 in that contests. Now they go back on the road where they have scored seven times in their last three matches. The Saints are one of the better teams on the road in the league (one of the reasons why I am passing on the side play in this match) with 55% of their total expected goals this season taking place away from home. Their 1.58 xG on the road is 5th best in the league. And they also have upset wins at Chelsea and Leicester City on the road this season.

FINAL TAKE: Southampton has allowed just four goals since the restart — but their xGA for those five games jumps to 8.41. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw way back in the idyll days of late August 2019 at St. Mary’s — but the Saints have allowed 2.0 goals-per-game in their five road matches against a Big Six side with sixteen combined goals scored in those games. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W22-D3-L9) looks to build off a 5-0 win over Newcastle United on Wednesday. Brighton (W8-D12-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City peppered the Magpies with 23 shots with nine of them on target. The Cityzens have scored 18 goals in their six EPL matches in Project Restart — and they have scored 20 goals in their last seven contests overall since the return including their 2-0 victory over that Newcastle team in the FA Cup two weeks ago. Man City is averaging 2.60 expected goals (xG) this season which is their highest mark in the last five seasons. We are not sure who will get the start in this match with manager Pep Guardiola keeping an eye towards the FA Cup Semifinals versus Arsenal along with the second-leg of their Round of Sixteen Champions League match with Real Madrid. But Guardiola has an abundance of riches to choose from given the depth of the winner of the last two EPL seasons. Raheem Sterling should be in the starting XI after not starting against the Magpies. And even if mainstays like Kevin DuBruyne do not get the start this afternoon, there is a good chance he will play for at least 20 minutes in this match to maintain his fitness. Man City has scored 69 goals in their last 24 matches against non-Big Six sides — and they have 31 goals in their twelve road matches against non-Big Six opponents. But the Cityzens’ have been leaky on defense this season especially playing on the road where they have allowed 22 goals in seventeen games away from the Etihad. Brighton had entered last week’s match with the newly crowned EPL champions having played pretty stingy defense — but they allowed Liverpool to attempt 20 shots with eight of them on target. The Reds generated 2.68 expected goals (xG) in that match. But manager Graham Potter can take comfort in their ability to generate 2.88 xG against the stout Liverpool defense in that match. The Seagulls have allowed 22 goals this season in their last eleven matches against Power Six sides. They have played Liverpool, Man United, and Arsenal in their last three home matches which have seen 10 combined goals scored in those contests including allowing three goals each to the Reds and Red Devils.

FINAL TAKE: Man City dominated the reverse fixture between these two teams with a 4-0 win on August 31st. The Cityzens have seen 3.60 combined xG in their matches this season with that mark rising to a combined 3.85 xG in their last five contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Granada (201837) and Real Sociedad (201838). THE SITUATION: Granada (W13-D8-L13) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw versus Valencia on Saturday. Real Sociedad (W15-D6-L13) also comes off a draw when they played Levante on the road to a 1-1 score on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Granada suffered some tough luck to settle for the one point on Saturday as they limited Valencia to just 0.82 expected goals (xG). El Grana has surrendered just eight goals in their seven matches since the return to play. They go back on the road where they have surrendered 26 goals in seventeen road matches — but the deeper metrics also suggest they have been unfortunate to see that many goals as their expected goals allowed (xGA) drops to 22.26. Granada has scored 21 goals in those seventeen road contests — but they have managed just seven goals in their eight matches against teams from the top half of the league. El Grana has also scored only nine goals in their seven matches in Project Restart. Real Sociedad has only scored five goals in their last six contests. La Real has also seen some bad luck relating to goals allowed. They have allowed 43 goals this season — but their xGA drops to 39.10. Furthermore, while Real Sociedad has held their opponents to just 17 goals in their seventeen home matches, their xGA at home in those contests falls to 14.28 which is the 3rd best mark in La Liga.

FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 2-1 score on November 3rd. Expect a lower-scoring game in this rematch. 10* La Liga Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Granada (201837) and Real Sociedad (201838). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W29-D2-L2) enters this match as champions of the 2019-20 Premier League coming off a 2-0 win over Aston Villa on Sunday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W8-D12-L13) look to build off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool was fortunate to score against the Villans in what was a listless performance that remained scoreless after the 70th minute before they scored two late goals. The Reds registered a small 0.82 expected goal mark (xG) against the suspect Aston Villa defense in that match. Liverpool have scored just six times in their four matches since Project Restart. Mo Salah has registered just one Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate since the return of play. He may not even get the start this afternoon with manager Jurgen Klopp likely to rotate out some of his key players. Roberto Firminho did not start on Sunday so while he is likely to take the pitch again for this match, it is likely that either Salah or Sadio Mane will get the afternoon off with a higher-profile match against Arsenal on deck next week. The Reds lose some of their offensive cohesion when their big three are not together on the pitch. Klopp looks likely to also rest defenseman Andrew Robertson who is an important cog in their offensive attack. Liverpool has struggled to score goals when playing away from Anfield. They have failed to score in their last five road games across all competitions spanning an incredible seven hours and 42 minutes. But the Reds’ defense remains consistent — they have allowed only 13 goals in their sixteen road games in the EPL. Furthermore, Liverpool has only allowed 13 goals in their twenty-five league games against non-Big Six sides — and they have surrendered just 7 goals in their twelve road games against non-Big Six opponents. Brighton has scored only three goals in their four matches since the return to action while averaging just 0.85 xG. But the defensive play for manager Graham Potter’s side has been outstanding as they have allowed just four goals in these four matches while holding these foes to just 0.75 xGA. The Seagulls have allowed just one Big Chance in their four matches since the return which includes facing some formidable offensive clubs in Manchester United, Arsenal, and Leicester City. They have three clean sheets in their last five matches. Unfortunately for Potter, they have also been shutout in four of their last eight matches. They return home where they have scored only 19 goals — but they have surrendered just 19 goals. Furthermore, in their four opportunities to host a Big Six side, the Seagulls have scored just 6 goals while allowing only 5 goals.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 30th. The Reds have not scored more than two goals when playing on the road in their last six road games going back to December 26th. Brighton has seen seven of their last eight home matches go Under 2.5. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200029) and Arsenal (200030). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D7-L9) snapped a three-match winless straight on Saturday with a 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace. Arsenal (W12-D13-L8) has won four straight games across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolverhampton on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has registered three straight clean sheets in EPL play with their upset win over the Wolves. The Gunners have adjusted tactics under new manager Mikel Arteta to become more of a defensive-oriented side who finds their offense from the counter-attack. Over their last four matches, they are allowing only 0.71 expected goals (xGA) per game while giving up just one Big Chance of a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. Arteta inherited a team from manager Unai Emery who was allowing 1.61 Big Chances per game so it is understandable why Arteta shifted tactics. This has had an impact on the Arsenal attack as they have averaged only 1.36 expected goals (xG) under his leadership. The Gunners have scored only 49 goals this season which is far below the 73 goals they scored last season. And while they have 30 goals scored at home at the Emirates in their sixteen matches in league play, that number plummets to just a 23.89 xG amount. Arsenal has scored 12 combined goals in their last four home games but all those opponents were bottom of the table teams. In their six matches this season against one of the top four teams currently in the EPL table, they have managed only a combined 4.44 expected goals — but they have held those six opponents to just 3.58 xGA combined. Leicester City had managed to score only two goals in their three matches since the return before Jamie Vardy scored twice in the final 17 minutes for that 3-0 win over the Eagles. I suspect that scoring display had more to do with good fortune while facing a desperate Crystal Palace team trying to even the score at 1-1 late in that match. Vardy has not been himself in 2020 after enjoying a torrid stretch late in the fall. Since New Year’s Day, the Foxes are generating only 1.44 xG in their five league matches on the road. They have scored only three goals in those five road games. But they have also held their five home hosts to just 1.28 xGA per match.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-0 score back on November 9th. But the Foxes have scored only seven more goals in their eight other matches against Big Six sides. Leicester City has only allowed four goals since the return with two clean sheets in those four matches. Expect a lower-scoring match. 10* EPL Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200029) and Arsenal (200030). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W21-D3-L8) enters this match coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Liverpool on Thursday. Southampton (W12-D4-L16) comes off a 3-1 win at Watford last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City may have relinquished their two-season run as English Premier League champions — but they have been an offensive juggernaut and remain motivated to maintain their form with the FA Cup and Champions League titles still at stake later this summer. The Cityzens peppered a strong Liverpool defense with 14 shots while posting an expected goal mark (xG) of 2.99 which suggests that their four goals were not too much of an overachievement against the new champions of the EPL. Man City has scored 13 goals in their four EPL matches since the return to play while posting at least a 2.60 xG mark in three of those games. They also have scored 15 goals in their five overall matches since the return which includes their victory in the FA Cup Quarterfinals last weekend. The Cityzens are averaging a robust 2.56 xG per match in the EPL this season which is their highest mark over the last five seasons. They also lead the league with the most Big Chances of scoring opportunities with an expected success rate of at least 35% since the return to play. Man City averages a robust 3.1 xG in league play this season against opponents that are not in the top seven in the EPL table. But the Cityzens defense is what has held them back from a three-peat in the EPL this year. They entered this match week having allowed the most Big Chances since the return to action. Manager Pep Guardiola’s pressing system creates many scoring opportunities — but it leaves them vulnerable to great scoring chances with counter-attacks. Man City is allowing their home hosts to average 1.42 xGA in league play this year. But they are also generating 2.63 xG in their sixteen road matches in the EPL. The Cityzens have seen 83 combined goals scored in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides for a 3.77 combined goal score total — and they have seen 43 combined goals scored in their 11 road matches in EPL action for a 3.91 combined goal mark. Southampton got two goals from forward Danny Ings in their victory over Watford last Sunday. Ings is challenging for the Golden Boot Award with 18 goals in the EPL this season. He has been galvanized by first-year manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s commitment to an aggressive high-press which increases scoring opportunities for the Saints. Southampton has scored six goals in their three matches since the return — and this philosophy has worked with them reaching the 40 point threshold in the standings while being safe from relegation by 13 points. But these tactics do make them vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 33 goals at home with an  1.78 goals-against average which is the higher home mark in the EPL. Even after throwing out the Leicester City 9-0 victory at St. Mary’s in the fall as an outlier, the Saints are surrendering 1.50 goals per game at home in the EPL this season. Furthermore, in their five home matches against traditional Big Six opponents (which does not include Leicester City), Southampton has seen 16 combined goals scored.

FINAL TAKE: Manchester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Southampton is seeing an average of 2.93 xG in their matches this season with 62% of their games finishing Over 2.5 goals. Man City is seeing 3.56 xG combined goal marks in their league matches this season — and that number has increased to a 3.74 xG combined goal mark in their last four contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Aston Villa (200009) and Liverpool (200010). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W7-D6-L9) has lost six of their last eight matches after their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Saturday. Liverpool (W28-D2-L2) looks to rebound from their 4-0 loss at Manchester City on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds lacked intensity in their showdown with the Cityzens in their first match as reigning English Premier League champions. Liverpool should respond with more focus in their attack this afternoon. They return home where they have won all sixteen of their matches while scoring 44 goals. They also have averaged 2.62 goals-per-game in their thirteen home games against teams outside the Top-Six traditional powers. But with the Reds having nothing else to play for with them being eliminated from the FA Cup and Champions League competitions, don’t be surprised if the loss of vigor on defense that they displayed against Man City continues. Liverpool has lost five of their last nine matches across all competitions going back to before the stoppage of play — and that as many losses as they have experienced in their previous 76 matches combined! The Reds had been playing at an epic level for over a year — they did win the European Champions League last season. The decline seems to have begun. Aston Villa has allowed 14 goals in their last eight matches. The Villans have surrendered 60 goals this season which is the second-most in the EPL — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) worsens at a 64.21 mark which is the worst in the league. Aston Villa has also allowed 33 goals on the road which is last in the league. The Villans have only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play — but those results should not be overstated. They opened by facing a slumping Sheffield United team that is defensive-oriented before catching a rusty Chelsea in their first match in Project Restart. They then played an offensively-challenged Newcastle side before playing the counter-attacking Wolves last week. Their sketchy defense should be exposed by the new kings of the league.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Liverpool has seen at least three combined goals scored in four straight home matches with at least four goals scored in three of those contests. 10* EPL Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Aston Villa (200009) and Liverpool (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). THE SITUATION: Mallorca (W8-D5-L20) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 5-1 victory over Celta de Vigo. Atletico Madrid (W15-D14-L4) remained unbeaten in their last thirteen matches across all competitions with their 2-2 draw at Barcelona last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It was an offensive explosion for Mallorca with the last-place team in La Liga breaking a three-game losing streak with those five goals. They had scored just two goals in their first five matches since the return to action before scoring five times on just nine shots. The analytics indicate that Los Bermellones were rather fortunate to put up five goals considering that their expected goals (xG) for that match were just 1.69 xG. Now Mallorca goes back on the road where they are last in La Liga with just 5 points based on their W1-D2-L13 record this season. Los Bermellones have scored just 13 goals in those sixteen road matches. Mallorca has failed to score at least one goal in nine of their last ten losses. They will also be undermanned in this match with the biggest loss being their leading scorer in Ante Budimir who is suspended for this match due to yellow cards. Budimir has scored 12 of Mallorca’s 35 goals this season. Manager Vicente Moreno’s team still has plenty to play for with them occupying the final relegation spot in 18th place being five points shy of safety in 17th place. Moreno’s team is playing better on defense as of late as they have allowed eight combined goals over their last five matches with only one of these sides scoring more than two goals. Atletico Madrid is a dominant defensive team that has registered three clean sheets while allowing just four combined goals in their six matches since the return last month. Los Colchoneros have allowed only 25 goals this season which is 2nd best in La Liga — and they lead the league with the lowest expected goals allowed mark. Atletico Madrid is also tied for 2nd by conceding only 10 goals in their sixteen league matches at home. But Los Colchoneros have scored just 23 times in those sixteen home matches. Manager Diego Simeone is likely to sub a number of his key players who played in that showdown with Barcelona when now hosting this lightly regarded Mallorca team. Six of Los Colchoneros’ last ten home games resulted in them shutting out their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Atletico Madrid won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 2-0 score. Four of the last five meetings between these two resulted in a game that finished Under 2.5 combined goals. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). Best of luck for us — Frank.