Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two preseason games after their 34-17 loss at home to Las Vegas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Denver (0-2) is winless this preseason after their 21-20 upset loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER TOTAL: Head coach Sean McVay is not likely to play his starters tonight -- especially after these teams just finished two days of rigorous joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday. That means that the Rams' offense will be quarterbacked mostly by rookie Stetson Bennett and journeyman Brett Rypien. Their loss to the Raiders saw a combined 51 points scored — but 14 of those points came from the teams exchanging pick-sixes. Los Angeles is scoring only 17 Points-Per-Game in the preseason while generating only 243.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The Rams’ offensive line is a mess — and that problem permeates all the way down their depth chart on the line. LA’s defense has also been bad by allowing 379.1 YPG — but they should benefit from seeing the Broncos’ playbook twice this week. McVay’s Rams have played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a loss in the preseason. They have also played 3 Unders in the three games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog under McVay. Denver head coach Sean Payton has indicated his starters will not play for more than a series (if that) tonight. With wide receiver Jerry Jeudy getting injured in the joint practices, I do not expect many of their starters on offense to take the field. The Broncos are scoring only 18.5 PPG in the preseason while averaging 317.0 YPG. Denver has not covered the point spread in their first two preseason games — and Payton’s teams have played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight preseason games. This will be the Broncos' lone preseason game at home at Empower Stadium at Mile High — and Payton’s teams have played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games on the road. Furthermore, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Denver allowed the 49ers to average 6.8 Yards-Per-Play last week, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after allowing their previous preseason opponent to average 6.5 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake for this play is that these teams just completed two days of joint practice this week. The Rams' defense had glowing reports afterward — especially on Wednesday. The Broncos defense played significantly better on Thursday. McVay and Payton used those controlled scrimmages as their “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. Expect backups tonight with vanilla schemes in a game filled with players fighting for the final roster spots. In situations like this, the edge goes to the defense since only one mistake by a player on offense can ruin the execution of the play. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) leveled their preseason record at 1-1 with a 21-17 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Tennessee (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 in the preseason with a 24-16 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams were set to have two days of joint practices this week — but those plans were canceled after the scary incident the Patriots experienced with their rookie Isaiah Bolden who got injured in that game against the Packers which led to that contest being ended early. While head coach Bill Belichick might have been tempted to use this final preseason game to get more work in for quarterback Mac Jones and the first-string offense — especially with those joint scrimmages postponed — the injuries on their offensive line seem to have persuaded Belichick to instead give Jones and the critical first stringers on offense the night off. Left guard Cole Strange and right guard Michael Onwenu are slowed by injuries and will not play tonight as they prepare for the regular season in two weeks. The play of the Patriots offensive line has been shaky without those two starters — and they have serious issues at right tackle. Jones was sacked twice for 20 yards in his limited action last week. Even if Jones takes the field tonight, it will not be for long since Belichick does not want to risk serious injury to his starting quarterback. Bailey Zappe will likely get most of the snaps under center in the first half — he struggled last week by completing only 10 of 22 passes for only 117 yards. Trace McSorley will probably play most of the second half after the Patriots signed him as a free agent in the offseason. He has played in only nine games with one start in his three-year career — and he has completed only 51.6% of his passes in his career with one touchdown pass and five interceptions. Undrafted rookie free agent Malik Cunningham from Louisville may get some snaps in the fourth quarter although he may get moved to wide receiver for the Patriots in the long run. Belichick may have used the joint practices to test their top third down and red zone plays against a friendly rival in his former player Mike Vrbabel — but that is not likely to happen now when the entire league gets the tape. The Patriots have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset win in the preseason. New England has also played 20 of their last 32 road preseason games as an underdog under Belichick — and they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total in the preseason when getting up to three points as an underdog. The Patriots have only scored 15.0 Points-Per-Game in their two preseason games while generating 204.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but their defense has been solid by holding their opponents to just 302.5 total YPG which has resulted in their opponents scoring 18.5 PPG. The Titans defense has been similarly effective by holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG and 299.5 total YPG. But Tennessee has scored only 20.5 PPG in their two preseason games. Ryan Tannehill may get a series or two tonight according to head coach Vrabel — but considering that he has not played in the preseason since 2019, I do not expect him to play for more than a series or two. The Titans’ backup QB situation is unsettled. Rookie Will Levis will probably play after missing last week’s game with a lower-body injury. The former Kentucky star was just OK in his professional debut two weeks ago against Chicago when he completed 9 of 14 passes for 85 yards — but with an interception. He probably could have used the reps last week against the hostile competition that was the Vikings. Rookies tend to struggle against Belichick even in the preseason when his defenses are not as sophisticated as what they will be in the regular season. Malik Willis played the entire game against Minnesota — and he will probably get time tonight since he is a potential trade target. The Titans’ third-round pick from last season has not met expectations — remember that he was bypassed as the team’s starter late in the season last year for Josh Dobbs who they picked up off the streets the previous in a critical Thursday night game against Jacksonville for their playoff aspirations. Willis has completed 26 of his 42 preseason passes this month for only 274 yards with two interceptions. Tennessee has played 4 of their 6 home preseason games as a favorite Under the Total in the Vrabal era.

FINAL TAKE: The offensive schemes will likely be vanilla between these AFC rivals who could play each other in an early playoff game in January. The Titans have played 3 of their 4 preseason games Under the Total against AFC teams under Vrabel — and New England has played 8 of their 12 preseason games Under the Total in the Belichick era. 25* AFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (130). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-2) lost their second straight exhibition game this preseason with a 13-3 loss at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Indianapolis (0-2) is also winless this preseason after a 27-26 upset loss at home to Detroit last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Both head coaches will be using this game as a dress rehearsal for their starters for the regular season. Tom Brady will get the start for Tampa Bay. Head coach Todd Bowles has not commented regarding how long Brady and the starters will play -- but he did state that every healthy player will get into the game tonight. I think Brady plays into the second quarter (at least). He missed 11 days during camp for undisclosed reasons — and that has hampered his ability to get fully into synch with new receivers like Russell Gage, Julio Jones, and Kyle Rudolph. There is significant turnover on the offensive line as well — so getting live action against hostile competition will help. Brady has not had the benefit of joint practices with another opponent this preseason. Brady played in the third preseason game last year — and he completed 11 of 14 passes for 154 yards with a touchdown pass. Blaine Gabbert took over by the second quarter — so I expect something similar with Brady needing the work with his teammates. Injuries along with the offseason retirement of left guard Ali Marpet is a serious concern for Brady and the Buccaneers — but playing the Colts offers a good warm-up. While Indianapolis does have DeForest Buckner at defensive tackle who had 18 quarterback hits last year (if he plays tonight), the Colts only has 120 pressure on the QB last season — second-to-last in the league. Tampa Bay beat Houston in that third preseason game in which Brady started — and the same backup quarterback combination will complete the job under center for them tonight. Blaine Gabbert might have failed to develop into an elite starting quarterback in the NFL — but he is one of the better backups in the league. He has been very efficient this preseason by completing 8 of 10 passes for 69 yards and a touchdown pass (and no interceptions) in his limited work in both preseason games. Gabbert has 48 career starts during the regular season with over 9200 passing yards. And then second-year pro Kyle Trask has made his case as the potential heir apparent to Brady by completing 36 of 57 passes for 363 yards this preseason. Those are good numbers for a third-string quarterback in the preseason. Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich stated that the majority of his starters will play through the first half — but there are some notable exceptions. Neither Jonathan Taylor nor Nyheim Hines will play tonight leaving the Colts with only running backs fighting for a roster spot. Center Ryan Kelly has been out with COVID this week so I do not expect him to play as he recovers. Defensive end Kwity Paye is out with an injury. Indianapolis does have a good quarterback room behind Matt Ryan who will get the start tonight. Nick Foles is a former Super Bowl winner (although he has not been a regular starter in the league since). Second-year pro Sam Ehlinger has put up good numbers this preseason. I am not as high on rookie Jack Coan who played for Notre Dame last year after transferring from Wisconsin. But these QBs will be playing against a stout Tampa Bay defense that was 5th in the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG. In this preseason playing mostly the backups, the Buccaneers have allowed only 19.5 PPG and 248.5 total YPG. The Colts are winless this preseason despite that solid quarterback room — and Ryan played in their opening exhibition game. The Indy defense has allowed 27.0 PPG and 350.5 total YPG — and the Colts have been outgained by -61.0 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There is value in fading home favorites in the preseason since the home-field advantage is negligible in front of a crowd that is saving their passions for the regular season. For example, Indianapolis did not commit a turnover in their upset loss to the Lions last week — and home teams in the preseason who did not commit a turnover in their previous preseason game have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of the last 42 games in the preseason. Expecting the Colts at home to cover a point spread of more than a field goal is a big ask — especially since the Buccaneers could easily win this game. 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (115) and the Las Vegas Raiders (116). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) comes off a 20-10 victory against Carolina as a 6-point favorite in their second preseason game last Friday. Las Vegas (3-0) remained unbeaten in their three preseason games after a 15-13 upset victory at Miami as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots come off a game where they scored a defensive touchdown by recovering a fumble in the fourth quarter — and they allowed the Panthers to score on a 50-yard interception touchdown in the third quarter. We lost our Under play on Monday after the Jets scored a defensive touchdown early in the fourth quarter — but I do not expect this minor rash of defensive touchdowns to continue. The bigger takeaway from New England’s second preseason game is that their defense did not allow an offensive touchdown while holding the Panthers to just 192 total yards. The Patriots have an outstanding defense that finished 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 Points-Per-Game — and this is a unit with depth. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in the contest — and they have played 8 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after playing a preseason game where they had a +2 net turnover margin and they have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after generating a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Now after playing their first two preseason games at home in Gillette Stadium, they go on the road for their lone road trip this month — and they have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a two-game home stand in the preseason. The Patriots took part in joint practices at the Raiders facilities here in Las Vegas (technically in Henderson, very close to the Hollywood Sports home offices, BTW). Head coach Bill Belichick has been ripped for not hiring an experienced offensive coordinator — instead, he is using longtime staff members and former (failed) head coaches, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, to work with the offense while auditioning for the play-calling duties. This development is making it difficult for their regular season opponents to scout against them since there is not a book on Patricia or Judge when calling offensive plays. Do not expect Belichick to offer any clues in this preseason game — and any of the more sophisticated plays he wanted second-year quarterback Mac Jones to work on probably took place in the joint practices with the Raiders. Jones played only three series last week against Carolina — don’t look for him to take the field in this final preseason game. Expect rookie Bailey Zappe from Western Kentucky to get most — or all of the snaps — since there is no urgency for Belichick to get 14-year veteran Brian Hoyer some snaps. The Patriots will probably not use either of their top two running backs, Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson after Harris left the final joint practice with the Raiders on Wednesday with a minor injury. Las Vegas only managed 289 total yards of offense despite being on the field for over 33 minutes in their preseason game against the Dolphins last week. Derek Carr has not taken the field in any of the first three preseason games for first-year head coach Josh McDaniels — and after two good joint practices against the Patriots’ first-string defense, it would be a big surprise if the starting quarterback would risk injury now. With the Raiders playing four preseason games this year with their involvement in the Hall of Fame Game, the traditional dress rehearsal game for McDaniels if he wanted to get Carr some live action would have been last week. Las Vegas then traded away their veteran quarterback Nick Mullens to Minnesota earlier in the week — so it will probably be just Jarrett Stidham and rookie Chase Garbers under center for this one. Stidham played for McDaniels the previous two seasons when he was the offensive coordinator in New England — so this game may be mostly under Garbers’ leadership, the rookie QB from California, to see what he can do. Look for plenty of running plays from the Raiders offense as well — they have run the ball in 97 of their 198 snaps in their three preseason games (yes, I track run/pass ratios for these exhibition games to help find an edge) for a 49% clip which should help our Under play since the clock should continue to run all night when they are on offense. Las Vegas has averaged just 303.3 total YPG in their three preseason games — but their defense has shined by holding their three opponents to 14.7 PPG and only 303.7 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Preseason coaching trends are of particular interest to me — but with all the new coaches, the wiped-out preseason in 2020 because of COVID, and the reduction of four preseason games to three starting last year, the sample sizes to discover actionable evidence has declined. But New England offers the deepest sample size of exhibition games to digest with Belichick in his 23rd year leading the team. The Patriots have played 16 of their last 24 road games in the preseason Under the Total when an underdog getting up to three points. 25* AFCx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (115) and the Las Vegas Raiders (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (431) and the New York Jets (432). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-0) opened their preseason campaign with a 27-23 upset win at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on August 12th. New York (1-0) also pulled off an upset in their first preseason game with a 24-21 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on August 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets will be playing their third and fourth string quarterbacks in this game tonight. Zach Wilson injured his knee last week which will keep him out for at least the rest of the regular season. Veteran Joe Flacco has looked good in practice — but second-year head coach Robert Saleh will not risk him getting injured in an exhibition game since he may be needed to quarterback the team to start the season. That means that Mike White and Chris Streveler will get the snaps for the Jets tonight. White completed only 10 of his 20 passes last week for 98 yards White was solid in four games and three starts last year — but too often he was a Check-Down Charlie as he averaged just 4.1 yards in the air per completion. Streveler is a former Grey Cup champion for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but he has played in only two games in the NFL in his career with Arizona. The Jets only gained 302 yards last week against the Eagles — but the defense played well by holding Philadelphia to just 313 total yards. After allowing the Eagles to score 31 points in the opening preseason game last season, Saleh’s teams in the preseason have held their last three opponents to 14 PPG. Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith will play Marcus Mariota in the first quarter tonight — but rookie Desmond Ridder will likely get the majority of the snaps tonight. The former Cincinnati Bearcat was up-and-down last week in completing just 10 of 22 passes for 103 yards. Second-year pro Feleipe Franks is likely to get some snaps under center in the fourth quarter. Mariota played last week — but the Falcons only gained 307 yards on 18 first downs.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons scored only 30 points in their three preseason games last year — they are averaging 14.3 PPG in the four preseason games under Smith. The Jets have averaged 19.7 PPG in their last three games under Saleh. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (431) and the New York Jets (432). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (421) and the Minnesota Vikings (422). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-0) won their opening preseason game at home against Green Bay last Friday by a 28-21 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (0-1) lost in Las Vegas to the Raiders as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams completed two days of joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday of this week — so the most sophisticated offensive plays they were willing to show each other took place then rather than in this game which the remaining 30 teams in the league can access. The respective offensive game plans are not just going to be vanilla — they are going to be generic brand vanilla. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan already proclaimed earlier in the preseason that he would not use his starters for this second preseason game. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk claimed the joint practices were a “waste of time” because he was barely used. He may miss even that excitement for tonight’s game. Trey Lance is not likely to play — and Shanahan will not risk Jimmy Garoppolo getting injured since that would ruin his trade value. So, expect some Nate Sudfeld under center and plenty of rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. The seventh-round pick out of Iowa State completed 3 of 6 passes for 36 yards against the Packers last week. The Niners are dealing with injuries at running back with Elijah Mitchell already out and now Trey Sermon dealing with a foot injury that he endured during the joint practices. The Niners’ offense will probably be plenty of rushing attempts for rookie Tyrion Davis-Price along with Jeff Wilson and JaMychal Hasty with the clock running constantly with Shanahan just wanting to escape the game without injuries. His teams have played all 5 of their preseason games Under the Total when playing on the road. Minnesota only managed to gain 298 yards last week in their loss to the Raiders — but they did hold Las Vegas to just 300 total yards. Rookie head coach Kevin O’Connell did not play the key offensive starters last week — and he has declared that he will sit quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Backup Sean Mannion will probably get some snaps — but the starter will be second-year pro Kellen Mond who will probably play the majority of the game.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that could face each other in the NFC playoffs — frankly, I’m surprised that these coaches agreed to the joint practices earlier this week. O’Connell was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams — so the Sean McVay offensive system is already well-known to Shanahan. These two teams probably played the greatest hits from the established Shanahan/McVay playbooks during the week — and the backups on offense will be asked to execute those plays once again against defensive players who have working against them for two days already. That is a great formula for the Under. 25* NFCx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (421) and the Minnesota Vikings (422). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (133) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (134). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-0) remained unbeaten in the preseason with their 17-13 win against the New York Giants as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (0-2) remained winless in their first two preseason games after their 37-17 loss at Miami as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has assembled one of the best rosters in the league — and with the reports coming out today that head coach Kevin Stefanski will be using this third preseason game as a dress rehearsal contest for the regular season, the Browns become a strong play. Handicapping the preseason in the NFL (successfully) is not the same as it was five years ago. Back then, deciphering edges against the point spread mostly involved the qualitative assessment and comparison of both team’s rosters — especially at quarterback. Getting a book on the philosophy each head coach had regarding how they used preseason games has always been important as well — but Sean McVay’s commitment to not play any starters in the preseason established a school of thought that many of his peers have adopted. After no preseason last year because of the pandemic and the league’s shift to just three preseason games, a new dynamic has taken hold this year. It had been conventional wisdom for most head coaches to use the third preseason game as the dress rehearsal game where he has his starters get in their most minutes — and then the last preseason game is used exclusively to make the final roster decisions. Not playing starters in the final preseason game also gave them a week of rest before the regular season while protecting them from short-term injuries that could threaten their status for the start of the season. But with the NFL having next week off before the start of the regular season, head coaches face a dilemma: not playing their starters in this third preseason game could risk them being rusty. Stefanski appears to be erring on the side of using this game to get his starters time to establish a rhythm. So while I do not expect Baker Mayfield and company to play into the second half, I will not be surprised if Mayfield is still playing in the second quarter. The Browns' first unit offense should score their share of points against a suspect Falcons defense that was 29th in the NFL by allowing 398.4 total YPG while ranking last in pass defense. I like their hire of Dean Pees as their defensive coordinator — but he will be deploying vanilla defensive schemes in their last preseason game. Cleveland returned all 11 starters on offense — and they have one of the better quarterback rooms in the league. Case Keenum is Mayfield’s backup — he has 62 career starts in the NFL with a 62.8% completion percentage with a 75:47 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Keenum has completed 21 of 29 passes this preseason for 189 yards. Third-stringer Kyle Lauletta has been feisty as well this preseason. He posted a strong 91.4 passing grade from Pro Football Focus in his first preseason game against Jacksonville where he was airing it out with an average of more than 9 air yards per attempt. He completed 14 of 23 passes for 152 yards last week against the Giants. In both games, he has completed 33 of 50 passes for 364 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Don’t underestimate the value of back door covers — it is not luck when observing the comparative edge these QBs have against fourth and fifth stringers on defense. Lauletta is not only fighting for his job since the Browns may only carry two quarterbacks on the active roster — but he is also auditioning for other teams on national television tonight. Atlanta has allowed 30.0 PPG and 333.0 total YPG in their first two preseason games. The talent level on defense is a particular concern (and why I passed on the Under) — especially on their defensive line. Rookie head coach Arthur Smith has embraced the McVay philosophy of not playing his starters in this preseason. Matt Ryan has not played a down. There is some speculation that some (or all) of the Atlanta starters will play — so maybe Ryan gets some action tonight despite earlier reports being he would not play a down in August. Either way, net edge for Cleveland now that there has been confirmation that Stefanski will play their starters a bit. The Falcons’ quarterback room is a mess after A.J. McCarron suffered a season-ending torn ACL last week. Atlanta’s third-stringer QB is undrafted rookie Feleipe Franks who was up-and-down in his career at Florida and then Arkansas. He remains very raw. He earned a 53.0 passing grade by PFF in his first game against Tennessee after completing only 2 of 9 passes for 16 yards. He then completed 4 of 9 for 46 yards last week against the Dolphins — but he threw an interception. His preseason numbers of 6 completions in 18 attempts for 62 yards is not encouraging. He was sacked four times in his 16 dropbacks last week — and he averaged 3.5 seconds in the pocket before releasing which is S-L-O-W. He will likely then give way to Josh Rosen who was signed this week after the McCarron injury. Rosen just does not have it after being cut early in the San Francisco camp when Kyle Shanahan gave up on his raw talent. He seems lost — and his 46.2 PFF passing grade in his career does not suggest a magical turnaround is coming. If he plays — and I think he will for the trial by fire in learning a new offense under coordinator Dave Ragone — it won’t be pretty.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland’s backups have played well this preseason — the Browns have averaged 20.0 PPG and allowed just 13.0 PPG. They have outgained their two opponents by +60.0 net YPG. Atlanta has been outgained in both their preseason games by more than 100 yards. They have been outscored by 40 points in both games while averaging just 10.0 PPG and 195.5 total YPG. With Cleveland’s starters playing, I expect a victory for the Browns by at least a touchdown. 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (133) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (124) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (123). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-2) remained winless in the preseason last Saturday in a 30-3 loss to Denver as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (1-1) lost at home to San Francisco last Sunday night by a 15-10 score as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Pete Carroll will treat this third preseason game as his team’s dress rehearsal. Said Carroll: “Week three is a big deal for us. We'll go back to a lot of the other guys that haven't played in the first two games to prepare for game one of the regular season.” Quarterback Russell Wilson and many of the Seahawks' first string has not yet played this preseason — but they will play for about a half tonight. And it will likely be Geno Smith who gets the majority of the snaps in the second half as Wilson’s backup after he did not play last week against the Broncos. It was Sean Mannion and Alex McGough in their battle for the third-string QB that combined to score just three points in that game. The Seahawks usually play well in the preseason under Carroll. They have covered 20 of their last 31 preseason games against AFC opponents in Carroll’s tenure. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home preseason games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points under Carroll. And while their first two preseason games have finished Under the Total, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least two straight Unders. Los Angeles’s rookie head coach, Brandon Staley, was the defensive coordinator with the Rams last season — and he has embraced Sean McVay’s philosophy of not playing his starters in preseason games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert and other starters like safety Derwin James will not take the field and risk injury in this game. The Chargers have a middling quarterback room in veteran Chase Daniel and Easton Stick. Daniel has played in 69 games in his career but he has made only five starts. He completed 14 of 21 passes against the 49ers last Sunday night but threw a bad interception. He has completed 29 of 45 passes in the preseason but for only 164 yards for a lowly 3.64 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Stick is a former fifth-round pick from North Dakota State in his third year who has played in one NFL game in the regular season. Together, these two quarterbacks have led an offense that has averaged only 11.5 PPG and 210.5 total YPG in their previous two preseason games. The Chargers managers just 162 total yards against San Francisco last week.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 preseason games under Carroll when playing with six days or less of rest. 25* NFLx Saturday NFL Network Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (124) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (431) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (432). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 23-13 upset loss at home to Cleveland as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. New Orleans (0-1) comes off a 17-14 loss at Baltimore as a  2.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: It might be tempting to lay the points with the Saints tonight since there is a legitimate quarterback battle between Jameis Winston on Taysom Hill. But these teams have been engaged in joint practices since Friday — and that is where the real action took place particularly in controlled situational exercises for head coach Sean Payton to make determinations. Payton has tabbed Winston as his starter with Hill to get time. I am not going to be surprised if Hill gets the starting gig in the regular season — I think Payton sees Hill as a mini-Drew Brees. I am not saying I agree — and Payton is the expert. But Payton may also be guilty of getting high on his own supply when it comes to his offensive genius — he would not be the first brilliant NFL coach who eventually lost perspective. Regardless, Winston and Hill were solid against the Ravens' defense last week. Winston completed 7 of 12 passes for 96 yards and Hill completed 8 of 12 for 81 yards. Yet they only scored 14 points against the Ravens — and they committed six turnovers in that game. While the quarterback competition is still live, I expect a vanilla game plan on national television from the Saints after three days of joint practices. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 preseason games under Payton. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 preseason games after not scoring more than 14 points in their proviso preseason game under Payton. It is interesting to note that Payton rested many of his starters on defense last week against Baltimore. He may do the same tonight since depth is a problem for this team on defense — so the additional game time will help them sort out those positional battles on that side of the ball. Jacksonville has their own quarterback battle tonight as well with first-year head coach Urban Meyer declaring an “ongoing quarterback competition” between Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew. While no one believes that, that should ensure both quarterbacks get plenty of snaps tonight. I do think that the Jaguars will challenge Lawrence with a more aggressive playbook — the rookie needs real reps if he is going to start Week One. Lawrence was just OK last week — while he completed 13 of 16 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown pass, his Pro Football Focus grade was a subpar 58.5. I think Lawrence will play much better — as I think the entire team will be much improved this week. Meyer has had nine days work on mistakes from their loss to the Browns — and I have confidence in the long-time college coach to establish a culture of learning and improvement in Jacksonville. Meyer played his likely first string last week as well — it appears he falls in the old-school coaching camp that believes in using exhibition games to get even his best players reps. Minshew was not very good last week — he completed just 4 of 8 passes for 47 yards with an interception. Minshew is a solid backup quarterback — especially when playing against backups on defense — he threw for over 2200 yards last year with 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He should play better tonight. The Jaguars have one of the better quarterback rooms in the league with C.J. Beathard and Jake Luton — Beathard has 12 career starts and Luton made three starts in his rookie campaign last year. Either QB could lead a late scoring drive to produce a backdoor cover (if we need it) — and they are in a legit battle for the final quarterback roster spot.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 preseason games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range in the Payton era — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 preseason games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points under Payton. 25* NFLx Preseason Television Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (431) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (429) and the Los Angeles Chargers (430). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (0-1) lost their opening preseason game at home to Kansas City by a 19-16 scorer as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Los Angeles (1-0) comes off a 13-6 win at SoFi Stadium against the Rams as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Francisco will be using this game as another challenge between quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance with both expected to play. Frankly, I do not think this is much of a competition at this point — I will be very surprised if Garoppolo is not the starter in Week One. Lance has great talent — but last week’s game was just his second opportunity to be under center against hostile competition since January 2020. He looked rusty last week — and he made several mistakes. He completed only 5 of 14 passes for 128 yards — yet 80 of those yards were on one play. Take away that electric touchdown pass and Lance completed only 4 of 13 passes for 48 yards. Lance took four sacks and was almost responsible for three turnovers. Pro Football Focus grade for the game was just 44.8 — one of their lowest assessments last week for quarterbacks. Garoppolo was a professional 3 of 3 for 26 yards last week. He has a 24-9 record as a starter in his career — and he got head coach Kyle Shanahan to the Super Bowl. His bigger concern has been health — which means there is no reason to rush getting Lance on the field in the regular season. That is why I also expect Lance to get a majority of snaps tonight. The 49ers cut Josh Rosen this week after he completed 10 of 15 passes against the Chiefs with an interception. Nate Sudfeld is the third-stringer who make get action tonight after Rosen’s audition last week. Shanahan’s teams with San Francisco have played 4 straight Unders on the road in the preseason. His teams have also played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley has fully-embraced Sean McVay’s philosophy of not playing starters during the regular season. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert is not expected to take the field tonight after not playing against the Rams. The Chargers’ starting quarterback tonight will be journeyman Chase Daniel who completed 15 of 24 passes last week. But those 15 completions led to only 104 passing yards. The Chargers only gained 259 total yards of offense. Daniel’s backup is Easton Stick who completed all 7 of his passes last week for 63 yards. But the former North Dakota State QB played in only one regular-season game in his NFL career — he remains a very raw prosecute. This Chargers defense should be good under Staley who was the defensive coordinator for the outstanding Rams’ unit. They held the Rams to just 197 yards last week.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams had joint practices this week starting on Thursday — and those opportunities allow for scripted situations which afford the coaching staff the chance to try some of the chocolate and strawberry flavors (without cameras) before going vanilla in the later preseason game between the two clubs on television. I have started tracking the data and the sample size is small (and not doing great this week) — but the numbers still support the Under when two teams play an exhibition game after sharing joint practices. Just another piece of evidence — particularly in my expectation that Lance will get most of the snaps for the Niners. 25* NFLx Sunday NFL Network Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (429) and the Los Angeles Chargers (430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (423) and the Los Angeles Rams (424). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-0) won their opening preseason game in a 20-7 victory against Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Los Angeles (0-1) lost their opening preseason game as the technical home team against their housemates at SoFi Stadium in the Los Angeles Rams by a 13-6 score on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game will mostly be a battle of backups. Head coach Jon Gruden is not likely to play starting quarterback Derek Carr in the preseason (but let’s confirm that for next week’s final exhibition game). Nathan Peterman played the entire game last week with Marcus Mariota hobbled with a leg injury. Mariota has been cleared to play earlier today — he is expected to take the field. However, I do not see him playing more than a series or two since he is not at 100%. This will likely be Peterman’s game primarily once again. The Raiders gained 385 yards with Peterman under center last week against the Seahawks — but that yardage was propped up by them holding the ball for 40:37 minutes in that game. Las Vegas averaged only 5.13 Yards-Per-Play with head coach Jon Gruden milking the clock to shorten the game. The Raiders have played 6 of their 9 preseason games in the Gruden era Under the Total. Gruden’s teams have also played 11 of their 14 preseason games in his career Under the Total when they are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has played 7 of their 9 preseason games Under the Total in the Sean McVay era with him leading the way for the new school coaches to not play starters. Matthew Stafford will not play a down in the preseason — and backup John Wolford is not expected to play either. Wolford is also recovering from an appendectomy that McVay wants to make sure he fully heals from. That leaves the offense under the guidance of quarterbacks Devlin Hodges and Bryce Perkins. The Rams managed only 197 total yards against the Chargers last week — and they only completed one pass of more than 10 yards between Hodges and Perkins. The wide receiver depth chart is limited tonight with backups Van Jefferson and rookie Tutu Atwell dealing with injuries. That leaves the cupboard bare regarding targets for Perkins and Hodges tonight since Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Desean Jackson will not take the field. McVay’s teams have played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their preseason game. Additionally, McVays’ teams have played 4 of their preseason games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their 8 preseason games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams had joint practices this week starting on Wednesday — and those opportunities allow for scripted situations which afford the coaching staff the chance to try some of the chocolate and strawberry flavors (without cameras) before going vanilla in the later preseason game between the two clubs on television. I have started tracking the data and the sample size is small — but the earlier numbers support the Under when two teams play an exhibition game after sharing joint practices. Just another piece of evidence. 25* NFLx Saturday NFL Network Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (423) and the Los Angeles Rams (424). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (406) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (405). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-1) lost New England by a 22-13 score at New England as a 2-point underdog last Thursday in their opening preseason game. Cincinnati (1-0) upset Tampa Bay on the road by a 19-14 score as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS THE POINTS: Washington outgained the Patriots last week by +47 net yards — and they controlled the time of possession for 34:57 minutes of that game. The Football team led by a 7-6 score going into halftime — and they won the first down battle by a 24-16 margin. Starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 5 of 8 passes for 58 yards in his limited time. Head coach Ron Rivera has indicated that Fitz-Magic will play one or two series tonight. Backup Taylor Heinicke continued to impress coming off his breakout game in the NFC Wildcard game last year when he kept Washington competitive in a 31-23 loss against Tampa Bay, the eventual Super Bowl champion. Heinicke completed 9 of 15 passes for 86 yards last week. Kyle Allen did not play in that game as he has been nursing a rolled ankle that has limited his participation in training camp. Allen plans to play tonight — and he is a quality backup who is very familiar with the Scott Turner offense having previously been under the offensive coordinator along with Rivera at Carolina. Allen completed 60 of 87 passes last season for 610 yards with four touchdowns just one interception and a nifty 69.0% completion percentage. Practice squad quarterback Steven Montez had a nice game in his first opportunity against hostile competition after last year’s preseason games were canceled. The former Colorado QB completed 17 of 24 passes for 108 yards with a touchdown pass. Rivera’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 preseason games after a straight-up loss in the preseason — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 preseason games after a point spread loss in the preseason. Rivera’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 preseason games after a preseason game that finished Under the Total. His Carolina teams covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 preseason games with the Total set no higher than 35. Cincinnati will not have star quarterback Joe Burrow take the field tonight as he continues to recover from his torn ACL last season. The Bengals’ quarterback room is one of the worst in the league (after Burrow). Brandon Allen appears to be the likely backup. The former Arkansas quarterback has a career 2-6 record in his eight starts — his only eight games in the NFL. He has just a 57.1% completion percentage in his career. He completed 7 of 10 passes last week against the Buccaneers for 77 yards — but he did throw an interception. Pro Football Focus graded his performance at a low 50.8. Kyle Shurmur graded worse at 45.5 at PFF for his performance. The Vanderbilt quarterback completed 12 of 19 passes for 108 yards — and he also threw an interception. The undrafted free agent in 2019 has not played in an NFL game. The Bengals also have former Syracuse QB Eric Dungey who has not played in an NFL preseason game yet in his career after not getting on the field against the Bucs. Cincinnati was 1-3 in the preseason in head coach Zac Taylor’s rookie season in 2019 — not much to take from that except to say that he is influenced by the Sean McVay school of thought to not play the starters in preseason games. On the other hand, Rivera is old school who wants his starters getting some reps in these exhibition games.

FINAL TAKE: When we see these clashes between new school coaches and old school coaches in preseason games, we are beginning to see results like last night’s Patriots’ blowout against the Eagles. New England’s success was helped by them having a higher-tier group of players on the field against Philly — their 1s versus the Eagles 2s, their 2s versus the Eagles 3s. That looks to be the case tonight — and it helps explain why the line is above a field goal even in a preseason game. Finally, Washington has a good overall roster with depth at the offensive line, wide receiver, defensive line, and cornerback in particular. 25* NFLx Friday NFL Network Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (406) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (401) and the Philadelphia Eagles (402). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening preseason game last Thursday by a 22-13 score at home against Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (0-1) got upset at home last week against Pittsburgh by a 24-16 score as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots allowed the Football Team to gain 367 total yards — but the Pats’ defense was on the field for almost 35 minutes of that game. New England held Washington to just 4.7 Yards-Per-Play in that game which is a very encouraging sign for their defense that was seventh in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 22.1 PPG and that has better depth at all three levels from that group. The Patriots generated only 16 first downs with rookie quarterback Mac Jones getting most of the snaps. Cam Newton only attempted seven passes in that game — I do suspect he will play more tonight. New England only averaged 327.3 total YPG last season which was 27th in the league. They are inexperienced at tackle after their first string of Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown so don’t be surprised if head coach Bill Belichick uses this game to test those younger takes in this game. Belichick’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 preseason games Under the Total against teams from the NFL — and they have played 13 of their last 21 road preseason games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. Additionally, New England has played 13 of their last 18 preseason games on the road Under the Total following up a preseason win under Belichick. Philadelphia allowed the Steelers to gain 410 yards last week in the first preseason game under rookie head coach Nick Sirianni. But Pittsburgh had the football for over 41 minutes in that game. The Eagles held the Steelers to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Play. Philly only managed 10 first downs which played a large role in them only being on offense for 18:42 minutes of that game. Looking deeper into the boxscore, the Eagles got 79 of their 277 yards from one pass from Joe Flacco. Take that big play away and Philadelphia averaged only 5.08 Yards-Per-Play in that opening game. The emphasis placed on preseason games is different for all 32 NFL head coaches. It appears Sirianni is not overly concerned about getting his first-string reps in these games. Likely starting quarterback Jalen Hurts played only 10 snaps last week — and backup Joe Flacco is expected to get the majority of the playing time tonight even though this second preseason game becomes the de-facto dress rehearsal game with the exhibition season down to three games (for most teams). Flacco is past his prime — and he was just 9 of 16 for 99 yards save for the one big play of 79 yards. While taking away that big play is unfair, his efficiency was not quite as impressive as his 178 passing yards suggest. Nick Mullens was not good as the third-stringer — he only completed one of his five passes for 4 yards and he tossed two interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams had joint practices this week starting on Monday — and those opportunities allow for scripted situations which afford the coaching staff the chance to try some of the chocolate and strawberry flavors (without cameras) before going vanilla in the later preseason game between the two clubs on television. I have started tracking the data and the sample size is small — but the earlier numbers support the Under when two teams play an exhibition game after sharing joint practices. Just another piece of evidence. 25* NFLx Thursday NFL Network Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (401) and the Philadelphia Eagles (402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (129) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (130). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-3) remained winless in the preseason with a 23-15 loss at home to Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. San Francisco (3-0) remained unbeaten in the preseason after they upset Kansas City by a 27-17 score as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The 49ers find themselves as a favorite laying 5 to 6 points — perhaps bettors are impressed with their perfect preseason record with this opportunity to host a winless Chargers team in the preseason. But that is Fool’s Gold in exhibition games. As it is, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight preseason games when they were 3-0 in the exhibition season. The 49ers are likely to give the majority of their snaps at quarterback tonight to the loser of the backup job between Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. Considering that Mullens completed 8 of 11 passes last week for 84 yards, he looks to have secured the backup job to starter Jimmy Garoppolo. Beathard struggled in his last preseason appearance two weeks ago in Denver where he completed only 5 of 11 passes. Mop-up duty will then likely go to rookie Wilton Speight who could not win the starting quarterback job at UCLA last season after he transferred from Michigan. These are a lot of points to lay in the preseason — especially for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 preseason games as the favorite under head coach Kyle Shanahan. Los Angeles will be looking to play better on both sides of the football after their upset loss last week to the Seahawks. The Chargers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 preseason games after a straight loss in the preseason under head coach Anthony Lynn — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight preseason games after a point spread loss in the previous week. Los Angeles has some of the best quarterback depth in the NFL who will be taking the field tonight in lieu of Philip Rivers. Tyrod Taylor may get some time this week after being inaccurate last week — but he is one of the best backups in the NFL 46 starts under his belt. He has completed 19 of his 25 preseason passes for 190 yards. Fourth-year quarterback Cardale Jones remains loaded with potential with his live arm and large frame. Jones is 18 of 25 this preseason with 208 passing yards. And rookie QB Easton Stick from North Dakota State has been put up good numbers by completing 24 of 40 passes for 222 yards. The Chargers go back on the road after playing their last two preseason games at home. Not only has Los Angeles covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 preseason games after playing at home in their last preseason game but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 preseason games after playing their last two preseason games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 preseason games when playing on the road as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Expect a close game that LA should have a chance to win outright (but take the points for some nice insurance). 25* NFLx NFL Network Preseason Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (129) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (125) and the New Orleans Saints (126). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-1) concludes their preseason coming off a 22-7 win over Jacksonville as a pick ‘em last Thursday. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 28-13 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have played 13 of their last 20 preseason games Under the Total after an upset win in the previous week of the preseason — and they have also played three of their last four preseason games Under the Total after an upset victory by at least 10 points in the previous week. Miami has also played 28 of their last 44 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread cover in the previous week in the preseason. In theory, the Dolphins still have a battle to determine their starting quarterback with rookie head coach Brian Flores yet to name his starter for next week. With a difficult early schedule, I suspect Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the initial starter — yet he will not be playing tonight due to an illness. Josh Rosen will get the start and I expect him to the be starter for this team by midseason. But look for the majority of the snaps tonight to go to fourth-year veteran Jake Rudock who has played in only three regular-season games in his career. The former Michigan QB did not play last week. The Dolphins defense has played this preseason after holding the Jaguars to just 243 yards last week. Miami has held their three preseason opponents to just 16.7 PPG along with only 296.3 total YPG. Additionally, the Dolphins have played 12 of their last 19 preseason games Under the Total after winning two of their last three preseason games. New Orleans held the Jets to just 300 yards of offense in a very nice defensive effort last week. QB Drew Brees will not play in this game — and with veteran Teddy Bridgewater and third-year pro Taysom Hill playing well this preseason, there is little for the offense to prove this week after averaging 24.0 PPG along with 355.3 total YPG in their three preseason games. The Saints have played 8 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Sean Payton when playing a team with a winning record in the preseason. And while the Dolphins are outscoring their preseason opponents by +6.7 PPG, New Orleans has played all 5 of these preseason games Under the Total. The Saints return back home to the Superdome after playing their last two preseason games on the road. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total in the preseason with the number set in the 35.5 to 38 point range. Furthermore, the Saints have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 24 preseason games Under the Total when playing with no more than six days between preseason contests.

FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams having little to determine tonight on the offensive side of the football, it should be a whole lotta vanilla from both groups with avoiding injuries being the clear top agenda item. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (125) and the New Orleans Saints (126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (102) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 10-3 loss at New England last Thursday as a 4-point underdog. Pittsburgh (3-0) remained undefeated this preseason with their 18-6 upset win at Tennessee as a 1-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The headline coming out of their loss to the Patriots was the first half left foot injury to quarterback Cam Newton. Head coach Ron Rivera insists that Newton will be ready to play in Week One next Sunday. But that makes this game a bit more important for this team as they need the reps for their backup quarterbacks who may be pressed into duty in the regular season. Second-year QB Kyle Allen has the inside track to be the top backup to Newton — and he may get some work tonight after completing 3 of 6 passes for 16 yards in relief last week. Rookie Will Grier from West Virginia has struggled in all three of his preseason games with accuracy and judgment — he has completed just 23 of 43 passes for 196 yards. He will be playing for his professional football life tonight whether it still be with the Panthers or as an audition for a new team. Fifth-year veteran Taylor Heinicke will likely get plenty of time tonight after not playing last week. The former Old Dominion star has played in seven regular-season games in his career which includes one start. He has completed 12 of 21 passes for 113 yards this preseason and he has the ability to move the ball downfield against backup defensive players. One thing that has been consistent in Rivera’s tenure in Carolina is his expectation of his team to play better after flat preseason performances. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 preseason games after a straight-up loss in the preseason the previous week — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 preseason games after a point spread loss in the preseason. Carolina only gained 51 rushing yards last week with New England outrushing them by 78 yards. The Panthers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 preseason games after not rushing for more than 75 yards in the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 preseason games after being outrushed in their previous preseason game by at least 75 net rushing yards. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 preseason games at home as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after an upset victory in the preseason — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in four straight preseason games after registering a double-digit upset victory in the preseason in the previous week. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 preseason games after preseason win on the road. Despite their 3-0 record, Pittsburgh is actually being outgained by -10.3 net YPG this preseason. This team also has things to accomplish in this preseason game at quarterback. Third-year QB Joshua Dobbs will get the start tonight after completing 15 of 28 passes for 259 yards this preseason. But Dobbs has struggled with accuracy with short passes and he has thrown two interceptions — this starting assignment may be his audition for another team with head coach Mike Tomlin seeming to have decided on Mason Rudolph in being the primary backup to Ben Roethlisberger. Rudolph will get reps in the second quarter before giving way to rookie Devlin Hodges. The former Samford QB will likely play the entire second half — and while he has been solid this preseason by completing 10 of 18 passes for 117 yards, that makes the Steelers precarious favorites on the road in this game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 preseason games on the road laying the points under Tomlin. With Carolina needing to accomplish a few things in this game, they should at least keep this a close game. 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (102) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (281) and the Tennessee Titans (282). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-0) is undefeated so far this preseason after their 17-7 victory over Kansas City as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Tennessee (1-1) looks to rebound from their 22-17 loss at home to New England in a game that closed with them being a pick ‘em.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset victory in the preseason. The Pittsburgh defense held the potent Chiefs offense to just 315 yards of offense in that game — and Patrick Mahomes did start that game. The Steelers have held their first two preseason opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Ben Roethlisberger will make his preseason debut in this game — but he is unlikely to play the first half as he has done in the past in previous dress rehearsal games in the third week of the preseason. Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 24 preseason games Under the Total as the underdog under head coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have also played 7 of their last 11 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 3 preseason games against fellow AFC opponents, Pittsburgh has played all 3 of these games Under the Total. Tennessee only managed 306 yards of offense in their loss to the Patriots last week. The Titans did allow New England to gain 363 yards in that contest with the Patriots averaging 6.2 Yards-Per-Play — so better play on that side of the football will likely be a priority for head coach Mike Vrabel. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last preseason game in the previous week. The Titans defense is still allowing just 16.0 PPG this preseason along with only 295.0 total YPG. They host this game where they have played 23 of their last 38 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is also supported by a preseason-specific angle that has been 66% effective over the last five seasons. In preseason games involving a team coming off an upset win the previous week in the preseason (Pittsburgh) who have a winning record in the preseason, these games finished Under the Total in 47 of the last 71 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFLx Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (281) and the Tennessee Titans (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-1) won their first exhibition game in the preseason with their 30-23 win over Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas (1-1) also earned their first victory in the preseason with a 14-10 win on the road in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans saw a high scoring game last week with 53 combined points being scored — but one of those touchdowns came from them allowing a 19-yard fumble recovery that the Lions returned for a touchdown. Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with six days of rest preseason games under head coach Bill O’Brien. O’Brien pulled his offensive starters after they had a successful opening drive against the Detroit defense. Quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 5 of 7 passes for 60 yards. But Watson has a history of injury — so O’Brien will likely have a quick hook with his offense after he is satisfied with their execution tonight. The Texans have a solid backup in Joe Webb — but their third-stringer, Jordan Ta’Amu, has only thrown one pass in the preseason as a rookie out of Ole Miss. Houston has played 7 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total when playing on field turf under O’Brien. Additionally, the Texans have played 8 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total when favored under O’Brien. Dallas has only scored 11.5 PPG in their two preseason games while averaging just 272.5 total YPG in those contests. This is par for the course for head coach Jason Garrett. The Cowboys averaged only 10.7 PPG while generating just 280.5 total YPG in their four preseason games last year. QB Dak Prescott has thrown only nine passes this preseason. And with running back Ezekiel Elliott still holding out, the Cowboys are not likely to put their promising rookie running back Tony Pollard on the field much for this game. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Under the Total after scoring no more than 17 points in two straight games. The backup QB situation for Dallas is not one of the better situations in the league. Cooper Rush has looked solid this preseason — but the third-year pro out of Central Michigan has only played in three regular-season games without a start. The third-stringer is likely to be Mike White — the second-year QB has completed only 16 of 33 passes for 117 yards in this preseason.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 14 of their last 23 preseason games in the Garrett era Under the Total with the number set int he 35.5 to 42 point range. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFLx NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (253) and the Atlanta Falcons (254). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-2) remained winless this preseason with their 25-13 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Atlanta (0-3) lost their third straight game this preseason with their 22-10 upset loss at home to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the Skins’ game with the Bengals finished Under the Total with 36 combined points, two touchdowns were scored by a pick-six by Washington along with a 75-yard punt return by Cincinnati. The Skins managed only 212 yards of offense against the Bengals — and they have averaged a mere 241.5 total YPG this preseason despite having one of the few legitimate quarterback battles to determine their starter this preseason. The Washington defense did play better this week as they limited Cincinnati to just 335 yards. The Skins have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Jay Gruden after a straight-up loss in the preseason — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread defeat in the preseason in the Gruden era. Additionally, Washington has played 9 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total under Gruden when playing with six days or less of rest. The Skins have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the preseason as the favorite — and they have played 12 of their last 19 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under Gruden. Atlanta has now lost eleven preseason games under head coach Dan Quinn. After averaging just 6.7 PPG in their four preseason games last year, the Falcons are scoring only somewhat better this season with their 15.7 PPG clip. Don’t blame Atlanta not using their starting quarterback Matt Ryan either as he played well into the second quarter last week while completing 10 of his 14 passes for 118 yards. The Falcons have then played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up loss in the preseason — and they have played 8 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread preseason loss in the Quinn era. Further, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering two straight preseason losses — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after losing three straight games against the spread in the preseason. The Falcons defense has been stout this preseason as they are allowing only 249.3 total YPG. They have not allowed more than 96 rushing yards this preseason — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight preseason contests. Atlanta has also played 6 straight preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 7 straight preseason games Under the Total in expected close preseason games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in the Skins last 6 preseason games against fellow NFC opponents, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. 25* NFLx NFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (253) and the Atlanta Falcons (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (431) and the Denver Broncos (432). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-0) won their opening preseason game last week by a 17-9 score over Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Denver (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 22-14 upset loss at Seattle back on August 8th where they were 2-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the headlines with this 49ers team usually relate to their offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan, their defense has been drawn attention in training camp for their strong play. San Francisco limited the Cowboys to just 294 yards of offense last week in that preseason victory. Furthermore, the 49ers held Dallas to averaging just 4.8 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt — and in preseason games involving a road team that did not allow more than 5.5 YPA in the preseason game in the previous week, these games finished Under the Total in 48 of these last 71 situations (68%) where these conditions applied. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did not play last week but he is expected to make his preseason debut tonight — although reports out of the San Francisco camp is that he will play only one or two series tonight before giving way to his backups. There is still a battle for the second string QB slot between C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens. Beathard injured his finger last week but he is expected to first off the bench after Garoppolo’s night is complete. San Francisco will likely rely on their deep bench at running back as well with Jerick McKinnon dealing with an injury. Shanahan did not risk playing Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman last week — so while they will both likely see snaps, they will likely not play much in this game to avoid risking another injury at the running back position. Denver has played 13 of their last 22 preseason games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss in the preseason in the previous week. The Broncos only gained 298 yards of offense last week despite it being their second preseason game after playing Atlanta in the Hall of Fame Game. Denver is averaging just 243.0 total YPG this preseason which has resulted in just 14 points in each of their games. Veteran QB Joe Flacco took his first snaps in live competition last week — he completed 3 of his 4 passes for 19 yards. It is not likely that he will play deep into this game. Expect the majority of the snaps to be given to rookies Drew Lock and Brett Rypien along with the fourth-year veteran Kevin Hogan. The former Stanford star has completed just 8 of his 15 passes for 54 yards with no touchdown passes in two preseason games. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams conducted joint practices in the lead-up to this exhibition game. The Denver defense played extremely well in those controlled scrimmage events. The Broncos have allowed only 7 and 3 points in the first half of their two preseason games — and that triggers a preseason-specific angle supporting the Under that has been 81% effective over the last five seasons. In preseason games with the Total set in then 35.5-42 point range, when one of the teams has not allowed more than a touchdown in their previous two preseason games, these games finished Under the Total in 21 of the last 26 games where these situations applied. 25* NFLx Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (431) and the Denver Broncos (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (429) and the Minnesota Vikings (430). THE SITUATION: Seattle (1-0) pulled off a 22-14 upset win at home against Denver back on August 8th as a 2-point underdog. Minnesota (1-0) pulled off an upset win the next night in New Orleans with their 34-25 win against the Saints as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pete Carroll’s teams have played 20 of their 28 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up win in the preseason — and this includes his Seahawks teams playing ten of their sixteen preseason games Under the Total after a win in the preseason in the previous week. Carroll’s Seattle teams have also played 12 of their last 17 preseason games after a point spread win in the preseason. The Seahawks defense played well in that game as they held the Broncos (who already had a preseason game under their belts) to just 298 yards of offense. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 preseason games in the Carroll regime Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last preseason game in the previous week. The offense was not much better as Seattle managed only 18 first downs which resulted in 301 yards. Geno Smith struggled at quarterback as he completed just 3 of 9 passes. Russell Wilson did not play in that opening game — he will likely play in this game but the veteran will not play long in this game. Carroll’s Seahawks teams have played 7 of their last 9 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Seattle has also played 6 of their last 9 preseason games against fellow NFC opponents Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory in the preseason — and this includes them playing three of the four games Under the Total after an upset victory in the preseason under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have also played 5 of their last 6 preseason games in the Zimmer era Under the Total after a preseason victory on the road. The Minnesota offense was crisp — led by starter Kirk Cousins who completed all four of his passes for 65 yards and a touchdown — as they generated 460 yards in that game. But while the Vikings averaged 8.5 Yards-Per-Play against the Saints, they have then played 3 of their 4 preseason games Under the Total. This game may see more of Jake Browning who attempted only three passes last week. The rookie from Washington is battling Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter for a backup spot on the depth chart. Only Mannion has NFL experience with his ten-game appearances out of that group after Cousins.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings backup quarterbacks will have a challenge facing this Seahawks team that held Denver to just 5.3 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt last week. Preseason games where the road team did not allow more than 5.5 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt in their previous preseason game have then gone Under the Total in 48 of these last 70 situations (69%). 25* NFLx Fox-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (429) and the Minnesota Vikings (430). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (419) and the Tennessee Titans (420). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) opened up their exhibition season by going on the road to crush the Lions in Detroit by a 31-3 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Tennessee (1-0) comes off a 27-10 upset victory in their first preseason game at Philadelphia where they were 1.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots flexed their muscles on defense against the Lions with the young talent they have assembled on that side of the field which has given them nice depth for deep playoff runs. New England held Detroit to just 93 yards of offense while limiting them to only 3.0 Yards-Per-Play. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the previous preseason game in the prior week. They went into halftime with a 20-0 shutout lead over the Lions as well — and they have then played 9 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their previous preseason game. These two teams have played two joint practices together with this exhibition game serving as the third encounter between these two teams this week. The last time the Patriots conducted joint practices before their second preseason game, Tom Brady only two series in that game. Don’t expect to see Brady out on the field very long tonight. I suspect that rookie Jarrett Stidham out of Auburn will get the majority of snaps to get him more opportunities against professional defenses. He was very effective last week in completing 14 of 24 passes for 179 yards with one touchdown against the Lions — but the Titans defense will benefit from both that game tape as well as two days of direct experience scrimmaging against him to now offer him come challenging looks. New England has played 22 of their last 37 preseason games Under the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 21 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Tennessee’s defense also played quite well last week in holding the Eagles to just 227 yards of offense. The Titans were also able to control the time of possession by being on offense for 37:51 minutes of that game. Tennessee limited Philadelphia to just 37 rushing yards in that preseason game. The Titans have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their previous preseason game — and they have played both preseason games Under the Total in the Matt Vrabel era Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their previous preseason contest. Quarterback Marcus Mariota threw only 8 passes last week for just 24 yards — I do not expect him to see the field too much tonight. Backup Ryan Tannehill looked very good as a backup (with whispers that he could challenge for Mariota’s job) by completing 12 of 16 passes for 130 yards and two TD passes. Don’t be surprised if third-stringer Logan Woodside gets plenty of action tonight. It is a big dropoff to the third-year pro from Toledo who has yet to play in an NFL regular season contest. Tennessee has played their last 3 games against fellow AFC opponents Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: In preseason games between conference rivals, when the Total is set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, these games finished Under the Total in 22 of these last 28 situations (79%). With these teams already facing off with two joint practices, expect these two AFC playoff teams from last year to engage in an exhibition game that is pure vanilla. 25* NFLx AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (419) and the Tennessee Titans (420). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (413) plus the points versus the New York Giants (414). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 23-13 upset loss at home to Carolina last Thursday despite being a 3-point favorite. New York (1-0) comes off a 31-22 upset victory against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point underdog in their annual preseason showdown at their respective home at MetLife Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago will likely not play many of their key starters tonight with that being the preseason philosophy of second-year head coach Matt Nagy. But the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 preseason games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of their four preseason games as an underdog in the Nagy regime. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 preseason games after a double-digit loss in the previous week in the preseason. The Bears have the better overall roster than the Giants which will help them stay competitive in this game for all four quarters. The Chicago defense limited the Panthers last week to just 269 yards of offense. The Bears also have two veteran quarterbacks to rely on in this game. Chase Daniel is an eleven-year veteran who has played in 63 NFL games in his career with four starts. Daniel was very effective last week as he completed 11 of 13 passes for 120 yards against the Panthers. Tyler Bray is a seven-year veteran who completed 8 of 17 passes last week for 85 yards. Bray had issues with accuracy but he was aggressive with his passes. Neither quarterback threw an interception. Chicago also has a very intriguing offensive weapon in rookie running back David Montgomery who starred in college at Iowa State. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 preseason gams on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 preseason games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set at 50 or higher. And while the Giants’ offense generated 414 yards of offense to the tune of averaging 7.5 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 preseason games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. Eli Manning will likely get more snaps under center tonight after throwing just one pass last Thursday. Rookie Daniel Jones looked good last week by completing all five of his passes for 67 yards. Don’t be surprised if Jones struggles in his second preseason game (as Kyler Murray did last night) with him now facing an opponent that has game tape on him. New York then has second-year Kyle Lauletta who has been considered a disappointment (it’s why the Giants drafted Jones with the 6th pick in the first round) and eight-year vet Alex Tanney — they have combined to play in three regular-season NFL games. The Giants also have issues with their running backs with Wayne Gillman dealing with a foot injury and Saquon Barkley not taking the field tonight to avoid risking an injury. Paul Perkins struggled with a fumble and a dropped pass last week in his first game back since missing all of last season with an injury. The former UCLA is at risk of being cut as he battles with Rod Smith for a spot on the running back depth chart. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in the preseason.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants are typically unreliable favorites in the preseason. They have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 preseason games. New York has also failed to over the pint spread in 21 of their last 31 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22  home games when laying no more than 3 points. 25* NFLx NFC Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (413) plus the points versus the New York Giants (414). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (409) and the Arizona Cardinals (410). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-0) won their opening preseason game last Saturday in their 14-3 victory at home over the Los Angeles Rams as a 4.5-point favorite. Arizona (1-0) also won their first exhibition game this preseason with their 17-13 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last Thursday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the reliable sources of evidence in handicapping preseason games invokes the team trends tied to the head coach in various situations. Head coach Jon Gruden has seen his teams played 11 of their 14 preseason games Under the Total after a win in the preseason at home in his coaching career with the Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Gruden’s teams have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a preseason win at home by double-digits. Furthermore, the Raiders have played 4 straight preseason games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range in Gruden’s second stint with the Raiders. The Oakland offense generated 407 total yards last week — but they were able to churn out those yards by controlling the Time of Possession for 35:27 minutes of that game. The Raiders kept the chains moving by rushing for 149 yards — and they outrushed the Rams by +92 net yards. Oakland has then played 13 o their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after outrushing their previous preseason opponent in the prior week by at least 75 yards. Quarterbacks Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman combined to complete 26 of 37 passes for 266 yards. But inconsistency remains an issue for both signal-callers. Glennon threw two interceptions last week — and Peterman’s struggles with consistency are well-documented. Scoring only 14 points despite gaining over 400 yards and controlling the clock for almost 60% of the game is not a great sign moving forward. Second-year offensive lineman, Brandon Parker, struggled in pass protection — and the Raiders have played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in the previous preseason game in the prior week. Incumbent starter, Derek Carr, did not play on Saturday. Carr only played in the first and third preseason games last August where he threw just seven combined passes — so Gruden’s likely approach this preseason will be to limit Carr’s exposure in these exhibition games. Besides, Gruden has the incentive to continue to observe Glennon and Peterman play against hostile competition since he is undecided on who will serve as Carr’s primary backup. The Raiders should feel encouraged by the play of their defense that limited the Rams’ offense (albeit, not playing their first unit) to just 190 yards of offense. Los Angeles averaged only 3.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Oakland has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their previous preseason game. Additionally, the Raiders have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Arizona managed only 289 yards of offense in the debut of the Kliff Kingsbury offense last week against the Chargers defense. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray was on the field for only ten plays in that game. And while he looked pretty good, he did not lead the offense to any points. Kingsbury declared that Murray will play “longer” tonight — but I do not expect that to be significantly longer with Kingsbury falling under the Sean McVay new school of coaching that does not value playing the first-string offense in these exhibition games. That means that the majority of the quarterbacking will likely be handled by the law firm of Hundley, Anderson, and Kanoff — and with only Brett Hundley seeming to offer potential upside as opposed to rookie Drew Anderson from the FCS school, Murray State, and second-year man, Charles Kanoff, from another FCS school, Princeton. Those latter two FCS quarterbacks with zero game experience in the regular season will have to work behind the backups of an already suspect offensive line. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after a preseason straight-up victory — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous preseason game. And while Arizona was outrushed by -123 yards last week to the Chargers, they have then played 9 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after being outrushed in the previous week in the preseason by at least 75 yards. The Cardinals gave up 357 yards in that game while allowing Los Angeles to average 7.0 YPP — but they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their previous preseason game in the previous week.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona stays at home to host their second preseason game — and they have played 22 of their last 36 home preseason games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Expect both these teams to struggle to score 20 points apiece — despite the Total in the 40-point range. 25* NFLx ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (409) and the Arizona Cardinals (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (109) plus the points versus the New York Giants (110). THE SITUATION: New England (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 25-14 upset loss in Carolina last week as a 1.5-point favorite last Friday. New York (2-1) comes off a 22-16 win last week in their annual Snoopy Bowl preseason matchup against the Jets.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Successful handicapping of the NFL preseason has become even more dependent on doing the work to identify the specific intentions that a head coach has for each preseason game with past conventions like using the third week’s game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” increasingly going by the wayside. There is strong value in looking at New England with a deep history on preseason games to assess in the Bill Belichick era as he is not likely to change his approach. His teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 preseason games after an upset loss by double-digits in the preseason — so it is highly likely he is using the practices this week to coax a better effort from his team that is facing a massive cutdown of their roster on Saturday. That game against the Panthers went into halftime with a 9-3 score — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 preseason games after an exhibition game where they did not score more than 3 points in the first half. New England is not likely to play Tom Brady at all tonight — but they have one of the best backups in the league in Brian Hoyer who is completing 61.7% of his passes this preseason. Most of this game will likely be an audition for rookie Danny Etling out of LSU — and in the Patriots’ coaches, I trust. The New England brain trust has done a great job of developing quarterbacks including most recently Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett so I look for Etling to be effective in this contest. New York head coach Pat Shurmur has declared that he “will probably be some players that do not play” in this fourth preseason game. Quarterback Eli Manning has not played in the fourth preseason game since 2014 so it is highly unlikely that he takes the field. That leaves the quarterback to Davis Webb and rookie Kyle Lauletta. Webb was not ready to play in regular season games last year (that is why it was Geno Smith and not Webb who started in that controversial game late in the season when Ben McAdoo benched Manning). He is just 28 of 53 this preseason for a low 52.8% completion percentage while averaging a mere 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. Lauletta entered camp untested against elite competition after playing his college ball at Richmond. He has thrown just 16 passes in preseason action completing nine of these passes while averaging just 4.8 Yards-Per-Attempt — so he is still very raw as a prospect. The Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 games in the preseason after a straight-up win in the preseason. The Giants are not reliable favorites in the preseason either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 preseason games when laying the points — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in their last four preseason games as the favorite. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 home games in the preseason as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have the better overall roster while being better coached than this new staff with the Giants — and these are both important factors when handicapping preseason games. The icing on the cake is that Belichick has a better situation from which to script a more spirited effort from his team. 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (109) plus the points versus the New York Giants (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (281) and the Dallas Cowboys (282). THE SITUATION: Arizona (2-0) remained undefeated so far this preseason with their 20-15 upset win in New Orleans last Saturday as a 6-point underdog. Dallas (0-2) looks to rebound from their 21-13 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys are missing key pieces on their offensive line with right guard Zack Martin out with an injury and now their All-Pro center Travis Frederick has been diagnosed with the Guillain-Barre autoimmune syndrome that threatens his future playing career. Given this state of affairs, head coach Jason Garrett is not taking any chances with Ezekiel Elliott as the running back will not play in this game — and I do not expect Dak Prescott to play much either to ensure he is not exposed to an injury. This leaves the Dallas offense relying on a depleted offensive line and their less than inspiring backup quarterbacks in rookie Mike White and second-year pro Cooper Rush. The Cowboys are encouraged with the play of their youngsters on defense after they held the Bengals to just 263 yards of offense last week. Dallas has played 12 of their last 16 home preseason games Under the Total after a preseason loss — and they have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset preseason loss at home. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Under the Total after losing their last two preseason games. Arizona enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin last week in their win upset win over the Saints — and they have played 9 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last preseason game. The Cardinals also won the turnover battle in their opening preseason game by forcing another four turnovers which resulted in a +3 net turnover mark for that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle in their previous two preseason games. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked good by completing all 6 of his passes for 61 yards — but while he will start in this third preseason game, head coach Steve Wilks has intimated that he will not play his likely starting quarterback very long in this contest. Rookie QB Josh Rosen may get an extended look in this contest but despite some positive reviews for looking steady under center, he is only completing 55.2% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Cardinals do not have much a rushing attack after David Johnson who they are hoping can return from his season-ending injury last year. They only rushed for 65 yards last week after managing just 56 rushing yards in their opening preseason game — and the Saints outrushed them by 118 net yards. Arizona has played 8 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after being outrushed in their last preseason game by at least 75 yards — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 rushing yards in their last two preseason games. Lastly, in their last 5 preseason games on the road, the Cardinals have played 4 of these preseason games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: With both of these coaches not treating this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” opportunity for the starters, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFLx Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (281) and the Dallas Cowboys (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (277) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-15 upset loss at home last Friday to Arizona as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (1-1) won their first game of the exhibition season with their 24-14 victory over Seattle last Saturday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New Orleans lost that game with the Cardinals despite winning the first down battle by a 23 to 18 margin while outgaining them by +31 net yards. The Saints also did not play Drew Brees in that contest. Brees should play in the first-half tonight with head coach Sean Payton still using this third game of the preseason as a dress rehearsal for his starters. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games as the underdog in the preseason. It was a -4 net turnover margin that made the difference last week in their loss to Arizona — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 preseason games after a preseason game where they endured at least a -2 net turnover margin in their last preseason game. The Saints did rush for 183 yards last week on 28 carries for an impressive 6.5 Yards-Per-Carry average. They outrushed Arizona by +118 yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 preseason games after outrushing their last preseason opponent by at least +75 rushing yards. They did only pass for 124 yards in that game — but New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 preseason games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 preseason games after a double-digit win in the preseason. Philip Rivers made his preseason debut last week and he completed 6 of his 7 passes for 62 yards. But the Chargers managed only 146 passing yards in that game with Geno Smith and Cardale Jones being the two backup quarterbacks. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 preseason games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Lastly, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 preseason games against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints should protect the football better tonight which should result in them defeating the Chargers in this contest. 25* NFLx CBS-TV Preseason Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (277) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 30-17 upset loss at home to the Giants last Friday. Tampa Bay (2-0) comes off a 30-14 upset victory in Tennessee last Saturday where they were 3-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 3 straight games Under the Total are a double-digit upset loss at home as a home favorite. Detroit has lost and failed to cover the point spread in both their first two preseason games but rookie head coach Matt Patricia is embracing this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” contest. The Lions have played 9 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after suffering two straight preseason games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after enduring at least two straight point spread losses in the preseason. Patricia is committed to having the Lions run the football to control time of possession and keep the defense off the field — so expect to see this strategy enacted in this contest. As it is, Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last preseason game. The Lions have also played 10 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay has played their last 3 preseason games Under the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their previous preseason game under the guidance of head coach Dirk Koetter. The Buccaneers have seen their first two preseason games finish Over the Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after playing two straight preseason games Over the Total. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight preseason games Under the Total under Koetter — and this franchise has played 29 of their last 41 home games in the preseason Under the Total when favored by no more than 7 points. And in their last 18 preseason games against an NFC opponent, the Bucs have played 12 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Total has been bet up to the mid-40s for this game with Tampa Bay scoring 28.0 PPG this preseason — but that is likely an overreaction. These two teams tend to play lower scoring games in this preseason which should be the case with the first-stringers playing through the first-half but not wanting to reveal too much on offense against a potential opponent in the NFC Playoffs. 25* NFLx CBS-TV Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). THE SITUATION: New England (2-0) remained undefeated this preseason when they crushed the Eagles last Thursday by a 37-20 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Carolina (2-0) is also unscathed so far in the preseason after they defeated Miami by a 27-20 score as a 3-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers’ have averaged 27.5 PPG in their first two preseason games but their offense will likely struggle in this dress rehearsal game. The Carolina offensive line is without two of their starters with both Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams out with injuries. Not only will the Panthers miss these two players blocking for Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey but their absence will likely compel the Panthers to be even more conservative on offense so as to not risk an injury to Newton under center. As it is, Carolina has played 9 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Ron Rivera when playing with six days or less of rest. Carolina has also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total under Rivera’s leadership with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Panthers have played their first two preseason games Over the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their two previous preseason games Over the Total. New England has also played their two preseason games Over the Total with their offense averaging 31.5 PPG. But the Patriots are only generating 317.8 total YPG this preseason so their scoring numbers should decrease. In their win over the Eagles last week, one of their touchdowns was scored from a 54-yard fumble recovery. New England has a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Patriots defense did allow 316 passing yards to Philly in that game — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last preseason contest. New England has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Now after playing their last two preseason games at home, the Patriots go on the road for the first time this month which should slow down their offense a bit. New England has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games at home. The Patriots have also played 11 of their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Lastly, New England’s teams under Bill Belichick have played 13 of their last 21 road games in the preseason Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: While Tom Brady and Newton should play the first half, both teams have below average backups in Brian Hoyer and Garrett Gilbert. The high scoring games that both these two teams have played have attracted many bettors to take the Over which has pushed this Total up to the 45 point range. That is likely an overreaction which makes this strong Under situation even better. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 37-20 thrashing at the hands of the Patriots in New England last Thursday as a 4.5-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1) looks to rebound as well this week after they lost to Buffalo at home last week by a 19-17 score despite being 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Nick Foles was knocked out of that rematch of last year’s Super Bowl after completing just 3 of 9 passes — so his status for this exhibition game has been in doubt. But Foles participated in the Eagles’ practice on Sunday and the team announced Tuesday afternoon that he would start this game and join the starters in playing the entire first half in this dress rehearsal contest. Doug Pederson wants to see more “consistency” from the Super Bowl MVP in this game — and he “would love to see a touchdown drive or two” in this game to quote the Philadelphia head coach earlier this week. Carson Wentz has not been cleared for full-contact yet so he will not take the field in this game. But third-stringer Nate Sudfeld looked very good last week against the Patriots after completing 22 of 39 passes for 312 yards with three TD passes — so he should be able to move the ball in the second-half against the Browns’ backup defense. New England demonstrated once again that NFL head coaches have different motivations with these preseason games with Bill Belichick clearly using that contest as a marker for his team after losing to the Eagles last February. But a -2 net turnover margin did not help the Eagles’ cause with the Patriots scoring on a 54-yard fumble recovery helping them seize a 27-7 lead going into halftime. Philadelphia actually won the yardage battle in that contest by a 359 to 334 margin. This Eagles’ team is deep on both sides of the football which should finally translate into a victory for them this preseason. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 preseason games under Pederson’s leadership when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 preseason games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland lost their first preseason game in two years with that loss to the Bills — but this has not been a franchise that responds well to adversity even with exhibition games. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after both a straight-up loss and a point spread loss in the preseason on head coach Hue Jackson’s watch. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 preseason games after an upset loss as a home favorite. While most of the attention at quarterback has been on rookie Baker Mayfield who appears locked-in as a backup to Tyrod Taylor, Jackson has indicated he needs to get more snaps in this game to the veteran Drew Stanton after he failed to complete any of his 4 passes last week against the Bills. Mayfield is only completing 54.5% of his passes this preseason despite all the hype regarding his accuracy when playing at Oklahoma. Moving forward, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 preseason games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 preseason games as a favorite which makes them precarious favorites against the reigning Super Bowl Champions.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland’s roster does look improved this year — but their group is still a far cry from this Eagles team that won a Super Bowl while overcoming a number of injuries that would have ruined many NFL teams. The Eagles will want to use this third game in the preseason to establish momentum for the regular season. 25* NFLx Fox-TV Preseason Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) remained undefeated in this preseason with a 33-7 win over the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday as a 3.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (1-0) also earned a victory last Thursday as they upset Seattle by a 19-17 score as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens were quite good on defense last week as they held the Rams to just 170 yards of offense. With eleven starters returning from last years’ team that was 6th in the NFL by holding opponents to just 18.9 PPG, the Ravens defense has a good chance to be one of the best units in the NFL this season — and they boast plenty of depth after enduring a few injury-riddled seasons. Depth is a critical factor in handicapping preseason NFL action — and the Ravens have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Furthermore, Baltimore has allowed only 7 points in their two preseason games so far this month — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Jim Harbaugh after not allowing more than 7 points in the first-half of their previous two preseason games. On offense, rookie Lamar Jackson had a better game against the Rams than his opening contest against the Bears but he does not appear ready to challenge Joe Flacco to be the starter anytime soon. He should see plenty of action tonight with Robert Griffin III looking solid as a veteran backup on this team. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. And in their last 6 preseason games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Ravens have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Colts defense also flexed their muscles last week by holding the Seahawks to just 195 yards of offense. What Indy lacks in defensive talent they make up for in plenty of roster competition to earn spots everywhere — so this unit will play very hard tonight. QB Andrew Luck looked good last week by completing 6 of 9 passes for 64 yards — but I do not expect new head coach Frank Reich to push the envelope too much with him by playing for an extended period of time. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Colts have also played 16 of their last 22 home preseason games as a favorite of 3 points or less. Additionally, Indy has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 5 preseason games against fellow AFC opponents, the Colts have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game has been up significantly with the number opening at 37 but it is now listed in many places as high as 43. I love it. 25* NFLx ESPN Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (429) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (430). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 19-17 upset loss last Thursday at home against Indianapolis as a 2-point favorite. Los Angeles (0-1) suffered a 24-17 loss in Arizona last Saturday in their opening preseason game as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Pete Carroll has used the nine days to emphasize to his team to play smarter after they committed 12 penalties last week. Ten of those penalties were committed in the second-half so expect cleaner play from the Seattle reserves after a hard week of practice. Carroll typically likes to see good results in these preseason exhibition games as a reward for tough practice sessions. His Seahawks’ teams have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 preseason games against AFC opponents while also covering the point spread in 11 of their last 15 preseason games on the road. Additionally, Seattle should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 preseason games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Russell Wilson played well with the first-string offense against the Colts as he completed 4 of 5 passes for 43 yards and a TD pass for quickly ending his day — he should play at least into the second quarter in this contest. The Seahawks are reliable preseason underdogs who have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the dog under Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 preseason games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 preseason games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Los Angeles lost three fumbles in their game with the Cardinals which ultimately proved to be the difference in that game considering that the Chargers’ outgained Arizona by 217 net yards. But there were other concerns besides protecting the football for Los Angeles as the middle of their defense continues to appear vulnerable while their special teams remain rather shaky. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 preseason games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 preseason games. And in their last 7 preseason games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. QB Philip Rivers did not play last week but the veteran is not likely to play more than two series tonight — and that leaves LA with the shaky trio of Geno Smith, Cardale Jones and rookie Nic Shimonek under center.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are a trendy dark horse team to make a playoff run this season — but those evaluations should not color preseason handicapping. Seattle has been a very reliable preseason team in the Carroll era and the rumors of this franchise’s demise this season are a bit premature. Getting them as a preseason underdog is quite valuable. 25* NFLx Preseason Bailout Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (429) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back after suffering a 20-10 upset loss last Thursday at home against Cleveland as a 1-point favorite in their first preseason game. Detroit (0-1) also looks to get a victory after they lost last Friday in Oakland by a 16-10 score as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams had joint practices this week — so this game will serve as the culmination of that work. The most aggressive play-calling often occurs in those simulated practice sessions — these exhibition games often end up particularly vanilla as the culmination of these scrimmages. The Giants plan on using this game to given an extended look to second-year backup quarterback Davis Webb who is competing with rookie Kyle Lavletta for the backup job to Eli Manning. Webb struggled last week against the Browns as he completed only 9 of 22 passes for only 70 yards. Lavletta was OK but not particularly impressive in his professional debut as he completed 6 of his 9 passes but that only produced 48 yards. New York has played 14 of their last 21 preseason games Under the Total after a double-digit loss in the preseason. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Additionally, New York has played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit managed to generate only 253 yards of offense last week against the Raiders. But I do not expect rookie head coach Matt Patricia to have any plans on opening up the offense this week. General manager Bob Quinn considered last year’s team too soft on both sides of the football. I expect the Lions to commit to trying to improve their running game while perhaps giving a bunch of carries to Ameer Abdullah who is on the trading block after they signed LeGarrette Blount in the offseason before drafting Auburn’s Kerryone Johnson in the second round of the NFL draft. This second exhibition game looks to be a showcase for third-year QB Jake Rudock who is fighting for the backup job to Matthew Stafford. Rudock completed 12 of 19 passes for 84 yards last week against the Raiders but failed to generate enough scoring opportunities in moving the offense. Detroit has played 21 of their last 33 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 preseason games overall Under the Total with the number set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: Much of the important work for both these rookie head coaches in the Giants’ Pat Shurmer and Patricia of the Lions has already been done this week. Look for this to be a game fought in the trenches which is an area of emphasis for both coaches. Expect a low-scoring game. 25* NFLx NFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (404) minus the point(s) versus the New York Jets (403). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-1) looks to play better after they were defeated by the Patriots in New England in their opening preseason game last Thursday by a 26-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New York (1-0) comes off a 17-0 shutout win over Atlanta last Friday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS MINUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Jay Gruden has a sense of urgency with his team with him sitting on the hot seat in the fifth season with the franchise. His teams have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 preseason games. The Skins should see the debut of their new starting quarterback Alex Smith who did not play last week — and I expect him to play until he sees points put on the board for the offense as they look to build momentum moving forward in this new era after Kirk Cousins. I do like the Washington backup quarterback as Colt McCoy is a wily veteran with 25 career starts in the league who is entering his fourth season in Gruden’s offense. He completed 13 of 18 passes last week against the Patriots for 189 yards with two TD passes and no interceptions. I am even OK with third-stringer Kevin Hogan as he played in eight NFL games after his first two NFL seasons. He completed 7 of 9 passes last week. The Skins also have a heightened competition at running back after the season-ending injury to rookie Derrius Guice last week. On the plus side, Washington still has Chris Thompson, Samaje Perrine and Rob Kelley which was their initial depth chart at this time last year. Gruden needs to use this game to help establish the frontrunner to be the starter. The Skins return home to host their first preseason game. They have covered the point spread in 5 off their last 8 preseason home games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. New York will likely start their rookie QB Sam Darnold in this game to see how he performs with the first-string offense while facing the Skins’ starting defense. Darnold took 23 of his 28 snaps in Tuesday’s practice with the team with the first-unit offense. The former USC QB looked solid last week by completing 13 of 18 passes for 96 yards and a TD pass against the Falcons. But he was the third-string QB in that game facing the lowest part of the Atlanta defensive depth chart — and a handful of those completions were short shuttle passes that helped pad his stats. Darnold will likely play the entire first-half with Teddy Bridgewater playing most, if not all, of the second-half as he seems to be on audition to be traded to another team. Bridgewater looked good like the mid-level starting QB that he was for the Vikings before he suffered that devastating knee injury in 2016 as he completed 7 of his 8 passes for 85 yards. But he may not be able to move the ball as well this week when playing with a group of lower-string teammates on offense. The Jets rushed for only 75 yards last week on 32 carries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight preseason games for failing to rush for more than 75 rushing yards in their last preseason game. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road preseason games as an underdog under head coach Todd Bowles.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets opened as a 2-point underdog in this game but have been bet down to even being a pick ‘em in some spots with bettors likely intrigued with the depth the team has at quarterback. However, Darnold making his first professional start and facing better defensive players than he did last week presents a big challenge to the rookie and negates much of that QB depth edge Bowles enjoyed last week against the Falcons. Washington should play much better this week playing at home and motivated to play better after losing last week. 25* NFLx ESPN Preseason Game of the Year with the Washington Redskins (404) minus the point(s) versus the New York Jets (403). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Jets (276) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (275). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-0) travels to New York to face the Jets in the opening exhibition game for both these teams. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS: New York faces a sense of urgency this preseason after a second straight 5-11 season. Head coach Todd Bowles does deserve credit to even coaxing that record from a roster that was considered worse than the Browns at this time in the preseason last year before that Cleveland team went a dismal 0-16. The Jets were 2-2 in the preseason last year in Bowles’ third year with the team. New York did outgain their four opponents by +25.0 net YPG by playing strong defense that held their opponents to just 271.5 total YPG. Bowles gets his players to play hard in every game which should translate into these exhibition games even with the third and fourth stringers fighting for their jobs. The Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 preseason games at home under Bowles leadership — and they have also covered the point spread in their last 3 preseason game as the favorite. New York also has the incentive to push their play on offense given the quarterback competition between Teddy Bridgewater, Josh McCown, and rookie Sam Darnold. This trio might very well represent the best quarterbacking group this preseason with McCown having 73 starts in his fourteen years in the league while Bridgewater adding 18 starts as he enters his 5th year in the NFL. Their franchise quarterback is Darnold who has been wowing observers so far this preseason — he may very well be the Week One starter this year. Because of Darnold’s progress, there has been talk that the Jets may put Bridgewater on the trading block with them being very comfortable with McCown serving as the veteran mentor for Darnold. If that is the case, then the Jets may want to use this nationally televised game to showcase Bridgewater’s offensive talents. Regardless of that wrinkle, Bowles wants to use this game as well as the game next week to determine his starting quarterback so as to provide that individual with the majority of reps in the Week Three “dress rehearsal” — so there is more at stake for this team than there is for a pretty much settled Falcons team. I also like the depth the Jets have at running back with two veterans in Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell along with rookie Trent Cannon who has been impressive in camp after playing his college ball at Virginia State. Atlanta will likely have Matt Ryan on the field for only one series before giving way to their likely second-stringer Matt Schaub. But considering that Schaub is now a 15-year veteran with 92 starts under his belt, he may not play much in this game either with head coach Dan Quinn using this opening exhibition game to focus on the battle for third-string QB between Garrett Grayson and rookie Benkert. Frankly, I don’t consider either player very intriguing with Grayson only appearing in one NFL game in three seasons after a solid but unspectacular college career at Colorado State. And I simply forgot that Benkert was the Virginia starting quarterback last year. One year removed from their heartbreaking collapse to the Patriots run the Super Bowl, the Falcons have little to accomplish in these preseason games which explains their poor recent results. Atlanta was 0-4 in the preseason last year — and they have lost eight of their last twelve preseason contests. They were outscored by +5.7 net PPG last year while being outgained by -29.7 net YPG in their four preseason games last year. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 preseason games against AFC foes under Quinn’s leadership.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets are favored by more than a field goal which is a pretty hefty price in Week One of the preseason. On the other hand, it can look pretty easy to take a very good football team like the Falcons when getting more than 3 points in a preseason game. The sense of urgency that New York brings to this exhibition game along with their great depth at quarterback warrant laying the points. 25* NFLx NFL Network Preseason Game of the Year with the New York Jets (276) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (269) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (270). THE SITUATION: A rare Conference contest occurs between these two teams in the preseason with Houston (0-0) traveling to Kansas City (0-0) in the opening exhibition game for both teams.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Bill O’Brien will be happy to take advantage of this exhibition game after last year’s floods wiping out one of their preseason games last season. Houston has been a team that tends to take these exhibition games with a bit more emphasis on the scoreboard as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 preseason games played on grass under O’Brien. Houston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 preseason games under O’Brien as the underdog. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 preseason games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. O’Brien has indicated that incumbent starting quarterback Deshaun Watson is more likely to play in this game after he endured a season-ending ACL tear last year. I do not expect to see Watson play much in this game. I do like the quarterback situation for Houston for the rest of this game. Brandon Weeden shapes up to the be primary backup. In his seventh season in the NFL, Weeden has 25 NFL starts under his belt so he should be in a good position to move the football against the backups of the Chiefs. I also like Joe Webb who is a 9-year pro with 86 appearances in regular season games under his belt. He will be motivated to play well as he is in a battle with 4th year QB Stephen Morris out of Miami (FL) for the third-string QB job out of camp. As an offensive coach, O’Brien usually has his backup quarterbacks ready to play well in the preseason. Andy Reid is one of the senior statesmen of the NFL coaching fraternity with plenty of preseasons under his belt. His teams tend to not pay too much attention to the scoreboard in these exhibition games. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 preseason games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their thirteen preseason games in Reid’s tenure with the team. The starting quarterback for the Chiefs will likely be Patrick Mahomes this season — and the second-year pro should see some snaps in this game. I am not as enamored with Kansas City’s quarterback depth when comparing it to the Texans. Chad Henne is an 11-year veteran in the league who is seeing his skills decline after 53 starts in the league. Matt McGloin has seven starts as he enters his 6th year in the league — but he is fighting for his NFL life this season after not showing much after getting time early in his career with the Raiders. He is fighting rookie Chase Litton who will likely play in his first NFL game after completing his collegiate career with Marshall. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home preseason games when favored by no more than 3 points — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in all three of their preseason games with Reid the head coach.

FINAL TAKE: There is often value with the underdog in these opening week preseason games — especially with head coaches often opting for 2-point conversions over tying extra points when given that opportunity in the 4th quarter. The preseason coaching trends indicate that O’Brien takes these results with more vigor than Reid does — and I do prefer the Houston quarterback depth. 25* NFLx AFC Preseason Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (269) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (105) and the New York Jets (106). Philadelphia (2-1) looks to build off their 38-31 victory over the Dolphins last Thursday. Despite all those points, the Eagles defense played pretty well in holding the Dolphins to just 302 yards of offense. With likely backup QB Nick Foles still dealing with an injury, expect the uninspiring Mitch McGloin to handle the quarterbacking duties tonight with Carson Wentz not risking taking the field and getting injured. The starting offensive line for the Eagles will not be playing in this game either which will make things more difficult for the former Penn State QB. As it is, Philadelphia has played 5 straight preseason games under the leadership of head coach Doug Pederson Under the Total with the number in the 35.5-42 point range. The Eagles have also played 4 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3 point range.

New York (1-2) closes out their preseason after a 33-31 loss against the Giants last week. The Jets’ defense did not play nearly as bad as that final score suggests as they limited the Giants to just 331 yards of offense. Two interceptions returned for touchdowns accounted for 14 of the Giants’ 33 points. New York is allowing only 17.0 PPG in their preseason contests — but they are scoring only 14.7 PPG. With the injury to Bryce Petty last week who has at times been the most effective QB for this team this month, expect the majority of the snaps to go to backup Christian Hackenberg with the veteran Josh McCown not risking injury before he begins the year as head coach Todd Bowles starter. The Jets have played their last two preseason games under Bowles command Under the Total after a loss in the preseason by 6 points or less. And in their last 5 preseason games as the home team under Bowles, 4 of these contests finished Under the Total. Lastly, because the Jets trailed the Giants by a 29-3 score at halftime last week, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective since 1993. In preseason games involving a team that allowed at least 30 points in their last preseason game (Philadelphia) now facing a team that trailed by at least two touchdowns in their last preseason game (NY Jets), these games finished Under the Total in 26 of the last 34 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFLx NFL Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (105) and the New York Jets (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (281) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (282). San Francisco (1-1) followed up an impressive preseason victory over Kansas City that began the Kyle Shanahan coaching era with a subpar effort in their 33-14 upset loss at home to the Broncos despite being 3-point favorites. The 49ers are a franchise that have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 preseason games after an upset preseason loss by double-digits as the favorite. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 3 straight preseason games after a double-digit loss, in general. Ball security was certainly an area of emphasis this week in practice after the 49ers fumbled the ball five times — losing four of them — in that game. San Fran had a rough -5 net turnover margin in that contest. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 preseason games after a preseason game where they had a -2 net turnover margin — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 preseason games after a preseason game where they had a -3 net turnover margin. Starting quarterback Brian Hoyer exhibited leadership after that game by pointing to this contest as his team’s first opportunity to respond to adversity — so this group should played with focused energy tonight. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games in the preseason as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 14 road games in the preseason with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range, San Fran has covered the point spread 9 times.

Minnesota (1-1) comes off a 20-13 loss at Seattle last Friday. Now the team returns for their home opener this preseason — and that helps explain why they are laying around 6 points for this game as of this writing. That is simply too much wood to lay in the preseason under most circumstances. The Vikings are struggling to move the ball on offense as they are scoring just 15.0 PPG so far this preseason. These deficiencies on offense help place Minnesota int an empirical “play-against” preseason angle that has been 71% effective over the last ten seasons. Home favorites in the preseason coming off two straight preseason games where they failed to score at least 17 points have then failed to cover the point spread in 35 of the last 49 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFLx Sunday Night Football Preseason Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (281) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (274). The Chargers (0-2) are still looking for their first win of the season after losing their second preseason game by a 13-7 score in New Orleans last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite in that game. QB Philip Rivers did not play in that game after playing a series in their first preseason game — but the Chargers’ Most Valuable Player should play most or all of the first half in this contest as has been confirmed by rookie head coach Anthony Lynn. San Diego has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 preseason games after an upset loss in the preseason. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 preseason games after a loss at home in the preseason. This game will be played on the shared home field of the Rams and Chargers — and this San Diego team would love to earn a victory in this “Battle of Los Angeles” as they both fight for the loyalties of their new fan base.

The Rams (2-0) are feeling pretty good about themselves right now after their 24-21 win in Oakland as a 3-point underdog. But the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight preseason game after a preseason game against an NFC opponent. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 35 preseason games when favored by 7 points or less. Lastly, the Chargers are supported by a preseason-specific angle that has been 81% effective over the last ten seasons. Road team listed in the +/- 3-point range coming off two straight preseason games at home now facing a team coming off a preseason game on the road have then covered the point spread in 29 of the last 36 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFLx CBS Preseason Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (261) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (262). Buffalo (0-2) looks to get their first victory under new head coach Sean McDermott after their 20-16 loss at Philadelphia back on August 17th. The Bills lost that game despite winning the first down battle and outgaining the Eagles by 79 net yards. Expect a focused effort from this team in their dress rehearsal contest. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 preseason games when playing with at least eight days of rest. That loss came after a 17-10 loss to Minnesota in their first preseason game — so this is a team that needs a positive result to build momentum. The Bills have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 preseason games after failing to score more than 17 points in their last two preseason games. Buffalo has yet to cover a point spread this presses as well — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 preseason games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight preseason games. McDermott has confirmed that the starters will play into the 3rd quarter tonight. The Bills offense needs to get QB Tyrod Taylor going after he threw two interceptions last week. Rookie Nathan Peterman has seized control of the backup position over the veteran T.J. Yates but he will take his reps exclusively with the second team unit — and that ensures another series or two with Taylor playing with the first-teamers.

Baltimore (2-0) enters this game coming off a blowout 31-7 win at Miami back on August 17th. It will be hard for this Ravens’ team to not lose some of their edge after such an easy win — especially in the preseason. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 preseason game after a preseason victory by at least three touchdowns — and that includes failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games in that situation under head coach John Harbaugh. The Ravens defense has been the best statistical unit in this preseason. But this team is a mess at QB with Joe Flacco unlikely to take a snap before the regular season begins. Ryan Mallet has been thoroughly unimpressive. In his first preseason game, he managed only 58 yards on 18 attempts as he was reluctant to throw the ball down the field. He was more aggressive against the Dolphins but that results in two interceptions. It has been so bad that rookie QB Josh Woodrum out of the college football juggernaut of Liberty University is positioning himself to be the true backup. With this significant advantage that the Bills have at quarterback, take Buffalo plus the points. 25* NFLx AFC Preseason Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (261) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (257) and the Seattle Seahawks (258). Seattle (2-0) looks to build off their 20-13 win over the Vikings last Friday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Seahawks under head coach Pete Carroll have then played 10 of their last 14 preseason games Under the total after a points spread win — and Carroll’s teams have played 18 of their last 25 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread in win in the preseason in his three-team head-coaching tenure in the NFL. Seattle will be undermanned at running back in this contest with both the likely starter Thomas Rawls and impressive backup C.J. Prosise not playing tonight as they deal with injuries. That means the majority of the carries — at least with the starters in the first half — will be by Eddie Lacy but the former Packers’ running back has not impressed this preseason after managing just 30 yards on 10 carries. As it is, the biggest weakness for this Seahawks team on offense is their offensive line. Not only was this a liability last year, but the team suffered devastating news this month with the season-ending ACl injury to tackle George Fant. Seattle did average 6.06 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Minnesota defense — and the Seahawks have then played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a preseason game under Carroll where they averaged at least 6.0 YPP. Carroll’s teams have also played 7 of their last preseason games Under the Total in his coaching career where his team averaged at least 6.0 YPP in their last preseason game.

Kansas City (1-1) enters this dress rehearsal preseason game coming off a 30-12 win in Cincinnati last week. The Chiefs defense flexed their muscles by holding the Bengals to just 276 yards of offense in the contest. Kansas City held Cincinnati to just 72 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played their previous 2 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Andy Reid after a preseason game where they did not allow more than 75 rushing yards. The Chiefs have also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total when coming off a road preseason game under Reid’s leadership. On offense, Kansas City generated 182 rushing yards against the Bengals defense — and the Chiefs have played 3 straight preseason games Under the Total after a preseason game where they gained at least 175 rushing yards. Together, these team trends produce our specific 34-11 combined angle for this situation. Look for KC to attempt to pound the ball and win this game on the line of scrimmage to set the tone for the regular season. Lastly, because the Seahawks have not committed more than one turnover in either of their preseason games this season, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 78% effective over the last five seasons. The Chiefs did not commit a turnover last week against Cincinnati — and in preseason games involving one team that did not commit a turnover in their last preseason game now facing a team that has not committed more than one turnover in their last two preseason games, these preseason games finished Under the Total in 25 of the last 32 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFLx CBS Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (257) and the Seattle Seahawks (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.