Sports Picks & Predictions

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 69 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Last year, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts nine holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 54 professionals who competed at the Masters last week. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite with him being listed at +450 at DraftKings. I had several reasons why I was not taking Scheffler last week at the Masters — let’s just say that if you ever see me endorsing a money-line favorite at +500 or less in one of these reports, please call the police because I have probably been kidnapped. You don’t need my work and expertise to take the top money-line favorite. I will offer a brief reminder that even Tiger Woods at his prime was not winning more than one out of every four of the tournaments he competed in. More numbers for this week: The last 23 winners of a major championship have not even been in contention in their next tournament — and the last six winners of a major championship who chose to compete the very next week have not fared better than a tie for 15th place with two of those champions missing the cut. Finally, Scheffler has a baby due at any time — so his withdrawal from the tournament is very much a possibility (as it was last week).

TOP OVERLAY BET: Will Zalatoris (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Zalatoris (7020) versus Collin Morikawa (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:25 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds to win this tournament is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +3000 odds to win this event at DraftKings. While I had been reluctant to jump back on the Zalatoris bandwagon after he underwent back surgery which derailed his 2023 season, the rising superstar seems back in full form. After posting a tie for 13th place at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, he followed that up with a tie for second place at the challenging Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles in February. He backed that up with a tie for fourth place last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club where he enjoyed a five-stroke lead on Day Three before getting steamrolled (as everyone else did as well) by Scottie Scheffler. He took a step back in his next two tournaments — including a missed cut at the Masters last week — but he had a great week at Augusta where he finished in a tie for ninth place. Zalatoris currently ranks tenth in the FedEx rankings. This is a course built for shot makers — and that is an apt description for Zalatoris’ game. He ranks eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 21st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Three of the four golfers who placed in the top four last year at this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in Approach-the-Green. The last nine winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with five of those winners finishing in the top three in that category. With second-place finishes at the Masters, US Open, and the PGA Championship under his belt, Zalatoris seems once again poised to take his game to the next level. In his two previous signature events with the higher paydays last week and at the Genesis Invitational, he ranked top-five in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, top ten in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and top 15 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. What is most encouraging about his game now is his improved putting which had been his Achilles heel in the past. He is gaining strokes versus the field weekly with his new broomstick putter — and he ranked in the top 22 in putting at the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational signature events earlier this season. He finished in 42nd place in his first appearance here three years ago — and he seems poised to get right back on track to the promising start to his career. Taking the first-place trophy would validate his return.

Zalatoris is linked with Collin Morikawa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head matchups. Morikawa comes off his best tournament of the season with a tie for third place at the Masters last week. Despite that finish, Morikawa is still tinkering with his game which suggests he is not happy with his form. Morikawa also addressed his putting deficiencies by switching tools — but he has moved to a mallet putter to start the season. But then he switched back to his old blade putter after Round One at the Masters. Switching putters mid-tournament is a rare occurrence. Who knows what he will do this week? He was also messing around with different full-swing options and staying longer at the driving range testing out these clubs. It is safe to say that he is not comfortable with his game despite his good week in Augusta. He began the year with a 14th place at Pebble Beach along with a 19th place at the Genesis Invitational — but those results are tempered by the smaller fields that signature events have allowed for in this new era on the PGA Tour. Granted, Morikawa won the Zozo Championship last October while most of the top pros were vacationing — but he only had two top-ten finishes last year. His putting continues to hold him back — he currently ranks 1161st on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Morikawa’s ball striking has been below his usual expectations as well. He ranks 106th on the tour in 2024 in Greens-in-Regulation which is a trouble on a course — and he ranks only 64th on the tour in Scrambling so he can struggle to get up-and-down if he misses the green. Furthermore, his Ball-Striking is off — he ranks 38th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 80th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Morikawa has made the cut in all four of his previous trips here — but save for his seventh place in 2021, he has not finished better than 26th place. Morikawa is similar to Brooks Koepka where his primary focus is on winning majors. That zeal probably explains his peaking last week at Augusta — he will use his next few tournaments to tinker and build for the PGA Championship next month rather than aim for the big payday this week. Take Zalatoris (7020) versus Morikawa (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 69 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Last year, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts nine holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 54 professionals who competed at the Masters last week. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite with him being listed at +450 at DraftKings. I had several reasons why I was not taking Scheffler last week at the Masters — let’s just say that if you ever see me endorsing a money-line favorite at +500 or less in one of these reports, please call the police because I have probably been kidnapped. You don’t need my work and expertise to take the top money-line favorite. I will offer a brief reminder that even Tiger Woods at his prime was not winning more than one out of every four of the tournaments he competed in. More numbers for this week: The last 23 winners of a major championship have not even been in contention in their next tournament — and the last six winners of a major championship who chose to compete the very next week have not fared better than a tie for 15th place with two of those champions missing the cut. Finally, Scheffler has a baby due at any time — so his withdrawal from the tournament is very much a possibility (as it was last week).

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7134) versus Akshay Bhatia (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:25 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4000 odds to win this tournament. We were on Lowry last week at the Masters — but he disappointed with a tie for 43rd place. I have invested in him a few times this season — and I’m not jumping off just because of a subpar week. Trying to play roulette playing off the prior’s week results is Fool’s Gold. I tend to continue to invest in golfers when the underlying numbers present strong value relative to the odds — and this formula has been successful. Lowry led the field last week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and I would have doubled my personal bet last week if I had known that it would play out that way. Lowry’s weakness in his game is his putter — and he lost eight strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Two things to consider about putting. First, it is the Shots-Gained category with the most variance from week-to-week. Second, smaller greens help mediocre putters and put great putters at a relative disadvantage. It will always be better for a golfer like Lowry to get out their putter after reaching the green in regulation than even a great chipper missing the green in regulation. I liked Lowry last week because of his late Thursday tee-time as well — but that handicapping did not work out with the entire tournament delayed two hours on Day One which neutralized any potential disadvantage for those pros teeing off in the morning. That all said, the underlying numbers still look fantastic for Lowry — and it would be the regret I never forget if I jumped off him now at the +4000 price simply because of the previous week. In his previous start on the PGA Tour, Lowry was tied for 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He previously followed up a tie for fourth place two weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches at the PGA National with a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Lowry is playing with tremendous confidence right now while ranking in the top ten players in the world rankings. He gained +5.4 strokes in Approach-the-Green on average in those previous three tournaments going into the Masters. For 2024, he ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Total. Three of the four golfers who placed in the top four last year at this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in Approach-the-Green. The last nine winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with five of those winners finishing in the top three in that category. Lowry also leads the PGA Tour in Driver Accuracy and Fairways Hit. Furthermore, he leads the tour in Approach-the-Green Proximity if playing from the rough — so when he does miss, he recovers. Lowry has posted three top-ten finishes at Harbour Town since 2019 with two third-place results. Perhaps most importantly, he has lost strokes versus the field with his putter only once during that span. The 37-year-old fits the profile for those that win here. The last three winners here played the previous week at the Masters. The last five winners had previously made the cut at this tournament at least twice with at least 23rd place or better finish.

Lowry is linked with Akshay Bhatia in Round One head-to-head props. This was the exact same prop we invested in last week at the Masters — and despite Lowry ranking third on the tour in Round One Scoring and Bhatia ranking 69th in that category, Bhatia outshot Lowry by a stroke for the first round before falling to 35th for the tournament. After surviving Denny McCarthy’s furious comeback attempt two Sundays ago to win the PGA Valero Open, Bhatia may be overdue for the proverbial emotional and physical letdown this week. The 22-year-old is happy to collect paychecks — he has not taken a week off since THE PLAYERS championship last month so this will be his sixth straight week playing on the PGA Tour. THE PLAYERS was the final week of Conference Tournaments in college basketball — and I’m exhausted (actually, I have recovered over the last week but only after the taxes were completed). Imagine playing four rounds of golf each week without the benefit of a golf cart. Bhatia was dealing with a wrenched shoulder after his aggressive fist-pump when he won the Houston Open in that playoff. Perhaps that explains why he lost -4.5 strokes in Approach-the-Green last week? Or he may simply be tiring — but still scratching out paydays because he is 22? Good for him! But he tends to perform better at driver-heavy courses with wide-open fairways. Deftness with chipping and playing out of bunkers is also a critical component of success at this golf course — and Bhatia ranks 87th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He did miss the cut in his previous three tournaments including at THE PLAYERS Championship last month which is considered the “fifth” major before his recent good run. He missed the cut at Harbour Town in his professional debut here last year. Take Lowry (7134) versus Bhatia (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 69 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Last year, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts nine holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 54 professionals who competed at the Masters last week. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite with him being listed at +450 at DraftKings. I had several reasons why I was not taking Scheffler last week at the Masters — let’s just say that if you ever see me endorsing a money-line favorite at +500 or less in one of these reports, please call the police because I have probably been kidnapped. You don’t need my work and expertise to take the top money-line favorite. I will offer a brief reminder that even Tiger Woods at his prime was not winning more than one out of every four of the tournaments he competed in. More numbers for this week: The last 23 winners of a major championship have not even been in contention in their next tournament — and the last six winners of a major championship who chose to compete the very next week have not fared better than a tie for 15th place with two of those champions missing the cut. Finally, Scheffler has a baby due at any time — so his withdrawal from the tournament is very much a possibility (as it was last week).

BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7012) versus Patrick Cantlay (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:50 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood is in great form right now after his round of 69 on Sunday to finish for a tie for third place at the Masters. He finished tied for seventh week at the Valero Texas Open the week prior — and he finished in tenth place at the Genesis Invitational in February. He splits his time between the PGA Tour and the DP Tour in Europe — so his Shots-Gained metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since he typically only plays the most challenging events. He won the Dubai Invitational in January which was his seventh victory on the DP Tour. Fleetwood is one of the best players in the world with his short game. He ranked 14th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Putting. For the 2024 season, he ranks 24th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 28th in Scrambling — and skill Around the Green is important at Harbour Town. Fleetwood tends to perform better on “less than driver” courses — and he has even been using a metal wood mini-driver that will help shape shots Off-the-Tee this week. Veterans who pride themselves on being shotmakers have lifted the championship trophy here in the past. The last ten winners at this tournament have averaged 32 years old — and Fleetwood turned 33 in January. The last three winners here played the previous week at the Masters. The last five winners had previously made the cut at this tournament at least twice with at least 23rd place or better finish. Fleetwood has made the cut here in three of his previous four visits here with a 10th-place finish in 2022 and a 15th-place result last year. He has shot 68 or lower in three of his last five rounds at Harbour Town. Fleetwood now has seven top-four finishes at a major championship after last week including a runner-up at the British Open and the US Open — but he is still looking for his first win on the PGA Tour. This could finally be the week.

Fleetwood is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay finished in a tie for 22nd place at the Masters last week despite benefitting from two holes out during the week. He simply is not in great form right now with only one top-ten finish in his eight starts this year. He has only one win on the PGA Tour in the last three seasons. He is struggling with his Ball-Striking — he ranks just 72nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 149th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season after ranking third and 16th in those metrics respectively last season. Going into the Masters, he had lost strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six of his previous seven tournaments — and he lost strokes versus the field from Tee-to-Green in four of his last five events. For more comparison, he lost strokes versus the field from Tee-to-Green only four times in 2022 through 2023. Cantlay has short odds this week because of his great course history at Harbour Town — and perhaps he can simply flip the switch. But three of the four golfers who placed in the top four last year at this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in Approach-the-Green. The last nine winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with five of those winners finishing in the top three in that category. Take Fleetwood (7019) versus Cantlay (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. The course is ten yards longer this year after the Par-5 second hole added ten yards to its length. The average round last year at this tournament was 72.960. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 89 professionals including 13 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather will play a significant role in this event, as it did last year. There is a 90% of precipitation from 8 AM ET to 1 PM ET with wind ranging from 15 to 25 miles per hour and perhaps gusting up to 40 MPH. The rain should begin to clear out in the afternoon but the wind will remain in the 10-20 MPH range with gusts still in play. Rain is not expected on Friday but the wind will remain a challenge with expectations being of the breeze reaching 30 miles per hour.

BEST BET: Brooks Koepka (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Koepka (7275) versus Jordan Spieth (7276) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:35 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the Masters is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +1600 odds to win this tournament. First, a few thoughts on why I am passing on Scottie Scheffler who is the overwhelming favorite this week listed at +400 to win at DraftKings after back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship before a second-place finish at the PGA Houston Open. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has won The Masters and is the best Ball-Striker in the world. But the money-line favorite has not won the Masters in 19 years. Furthermore, his missing a five-foot putt to likely force a playoff with Stephen Jaeger two weeks ago at in Houston does not inspire confidence that his improved short game using the mallet putter has completely resolved his challenges with the blade. And then consider that he is teeing off at 10:42 AM ET tomorrow which means at least half his round could be in the worst of the rain and win. At +400, it is simply too unappealing underlay value.

I was already leaning toward Koepka as my Best Bet — and with him scheduled for the 28th group out of the 30 teeing off on Day One — he offers even more value. He tees off at 1:3 PM ET (at the earliest). Koepka’s move to the LIV Tour was consistenet with his simply not taking non-major championships as seriously. He is on the record that he uses the non-majors as his practice tournaments. It is hard to argue with that reasoning considering he has already won five major championships in his career. Since 2017, Koepka has registered multiple top-six finishes for the year at major championships in five of those seven seasons with the two years he failed that accomplishment being in 2020 when he did not play at the US Open and the British Open got canceled because of the pandemic and then 2022 when he was battling a back injury. Last year, Koepka won the PGA Championship and finished second at the Masters. He simply does not a hole in his game. Last year at this time, I was concerned about how the LIV golfers would perform at the Masters given their lighter schedule consisting of only 54 holes and the team scoring system. After Phil Mickelson and Koepka shared second place and Patrick Reed finished in a tie for fourth place, a case can be made that perhaps LIV golfers with plenty of experience at Augusta National may actually enjoy a situational advantage. Koepka comes into this tournament in better form than he did last year. I don’t worry about his tie for 45th place last week in the LIV event in Miami since it was just a warmup for this week. He has five top-15 finishes in his last six LIV events — and he won the LIV tournament at Jeddah in the fall. Finally, Koepka has a fantastic track record at the Masters with two second-place finishes among four top-11 results in his last five trips. And he has something extra to prove this week after leading last year’s tournament after 54 holes before fading to Jon Rahm. We were on Rahm last year — but Koepka got screwed by the weather that required him to play 27 holes on the Day Four Sunday. Perhaps the Weather Regression Gods will be on his side this year?

Koepka is linked with Jordan Spieth for Round One head-to-head props. The market simply cannot quit Spieth even though he has won only twice on the PGA Tour in the last seven years. Spieth’s course history at Augusta National is appealing with nine made cuts in his ten appearances. He won here in 2015, finished in second place in 2014 and 2016 — and he has three more top-four finishes including a tie for fourth place last year. The Obama Administration was very good to him when playing in Augusta. His form is a big question right now after he missed the cut in two straight events before a tie for 10th place last week at the PGA Valero Open in San Antonio. Spieth’s putter has bailed him out when he has played well this year — but his iron play has been substandard. Going into last week (I do not know how the final numbers played out last weekend — it doesn’t really matter), his best finish in 2024 at a tournament where he did not gain at least 5.0 strokes versus the field with his putter was a tie for 30th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Going into last week, he had lost stokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six of his last nine events — and he had lost strokes versus the field in Tee-to-Green in three straight tournaments. After ranking 74th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has fallen to 98th in that metric this year. He once finished the 2016-17 season second in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — so this has been a dramatic decline in his skill set with his irons. Spieth ranks 57th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this year — and 11 of the last 12 winners of this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in that category. Take Koepka (7275) versus Spieth (7276) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. The course is ten yards longer this year after the Par-5 second hole added ten yards to its length. The average round last year at this tournament was 72.960. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 89 professionals including 13 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather will play a significant role in this event, as it did last year. There is a 90% of precipitation from 8 AM ET to 1 PM ET with wind ranging from 15 to 25 miles per hour and perhaps gusting up to 40 MPH. The rain should begin to clear out in the afternoon but the wind will remain in the 10-20 MPH range with gusts still in play. Rain is not expected on Friday but the wind will remain a challenge with expectations being of the breeze reaching 30 miles per hour.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+6000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7256) versus Akshay Bhatia (7255) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:20 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowery who is listed at +6000 odds to win this tournament. I was already strongly considering Lowry at this price — but given the weather and his late 12:20 PM ET tee time, he presents fantastic value given his skill set and form. If it is going to be very windy for the first few rounds, we can’t do much better than a former British Open winner who grew up in Ireland playing in similar weather. Lowry comes off a tie for 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He previously followed up a tie for fourth place two weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches at the PGA National with a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Lowry is playing with tremendous confidence right now while ranking in the top ten players in the world rankings. He gained +5.4 strokes in Approach-the-Green on average in those last three tournaments. For 2024, he ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Total. The weakness in his game is with his putter — but the fast greens at Augusta National neutralize that potential disadvantage since the greens are tough on even the most skilled putters. Lowry has finished in the top 25 in the last four Masters tournaments including a tie for third place in 2021 and a tie for 16th place last year.

Lowry is linked with Akshay Bhatia in Round One head-to-head props. After surviving Denny McCarthy’s furious comeback attempt last Sunday to win the PGA Valero Open, Bhatia may be due for the proverbial emotional and physical letdown this week — especially in the bad conditions on Thursday. And when fist-pumping his crucial made putt to outlast McCarthy, he wrenched his shoulder which is still bothering him this week. Bhatia has three straight top 17s after last week — but he had missed the cut in his previous three tournaments including at THE PLAYERS Championship last month which is considered the “fifth” major. Not only is this Bhatia’s professional debut at Augusta National, this will be the first major championship he will be playing in. Prior experience at this tournament has been essential in winning the tournament — 25 of the last 26 winners of the green jacket made the cut at the Masters the previous year and 24 of the last 26 winners had previously finished in the top 30 at this event. The last 12 winners of the Masters had a previous top-ten finish at a major championship. While Bhatia does not need to win the tournament to outperform Lowry in Round One, these trends do not paint a great picture for him. Deftness with chipping and playing out of bunkers is also a critical component of success at this golf course — and Bhatia ranks 87th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Lastly, Bhatia only ranks 66th on the tour in 2024 in Round One scoring — and Lowry ranks second on the PGA Tour this season in Round One scoring. Take Lowry (7256) versus Bhatia (7255) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. The course is ten yards longer this year after the Par-5 second hole added ten yards to its length. The average round last year at this tournament was 72.960. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 89 professionals including 13 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather will play a significant role in this event, as it did last year. There is a 90% of precipitation from 8 AM ET to 1 PM ET with wind ranging from 15 to 25 miles per hour and perhaps gusting up to 40 MPH. The rain should begin to clear out in the afternoon but the wind will remain in the 10-20 MPH range with gusts still in play. Rain is not expected on Friday but the wind will remain a challenge with expectations being of the breeze reaching 30 miles per hour.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7019) versus Jordan Speith (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:15 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on a golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. I don’t love his tee time at 10:15 AM ET — but it could be worse — and many of the top contenders including Scottie Scheffler tee off around this time as well. The Thursday weather is a significant consideration for me — but there remains the possibility that tomorrow’s schedule simply gets wiped out. Either way, I want to be invested in the 2021 Masters winner this week considering how great of form he is currently in. After struggling with his driver last year, Matsuyama has resolved those issues. His victory at the Genesis Invitational in February was the second most impressive for any PGA Tour professional save for Scottie Scheffler’s dominant performance last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also sandwiched a solid 12th place at Bay Hill between these efforts where he improved in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teem and Shots-Gained: Around the Green from the metrics he put up in those categories when winning at the Riviera Country Club at the Genesis Invitational. When Matsuyama is cooking, he is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Going into last week, he led the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds — and he ranked 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Greeen in his last 36 rounds. He went into last week leading the tour in Tee-to-Green by 0.33 strokes per round over the next closest professions in his previous 12 rounds. In his last 12 rounds going into last week, he is also top-ten on the tour in Driving, Approach, and his Short Game. I do not have the updated numbers to freshen up those rankings, but he played well after finishing in a tie for seventh place. Matsuyama comes into this tournament ranked fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is also a wizard with his chipper and getting up and down — he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He has made the cut in all nine of his trips to Augusta National while finishing in 16th place or better eight times. He is only one of three pros to finish in the top 30 here in three straight years — so I am not jumping off his bandwagon even with his less-than-ideal tee-time given his outstanding form.



Matsuyama is linked with Jordan Spieth for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The market simply cannot quit Spieth even though he has won only twice on the PGA Tour in the last seven years. Spieth’s course history at Augusta National is appealing with nine made cuts in his ten appearances. He won here in 2015, finished in second place in 2014 and 2016 — and he has three more top-four finishes including a tie for fourth place last year. The Obama Administration was very good to him when playing in Augusta. His form is a big question right now after he missed the cut in two straight events before a tie for 10th place last week at the PGA Valero Open in San Antonio. Spieth’s putter has bailed him out when he has played well this year — but his iron play has been substandard. Going into last week (I do not know how the final numbers played out last weekend — it doesn’t really matter), his best finish in 2024 at a tournament where he did not gain at least 5.0 strokes versus the field with his putter was a tie for 30th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Going into last week, he had lost stokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six of his last nine events — and he had lost strokes versus the field in Tee-to-Green in three straight tournaments. After ranking 74th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has fallen to 98th in that metric this year. He once finished the 2016-17 season second in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — so this has been a dramatic decline in his skill set with his irons. Spieth ranks 57th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this year — and 11 of the last 12 winners of this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in that category. Take Matsuyama (7019) versus Spieth (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, gusts have been forecasted as possible on Friday. The average score was 72.092 per round last year. The first layer of rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as four inches. Three are bunkers on 17 of the 18 holes which are also consistently rated as the top-ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

BEST BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7004) versus Collin Morikawa (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:50 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +2200 odds to win at DraftKings. Matsuyama comes off a tie for sixth place at THE PLAYERS Championship where he registered his personal best Ball-Striking numbers (Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green). Matsuyama slumped a bit last season — but the former Masters champion is back at full strength now. His victory at the Genesis Invitational in February was the second most impressive for any PGA Tour professional save for Scottie Scheffler’s dominant performance last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also sandwiched a solid 12th place at Bay Hill between these efforts where he improved in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teem and Shots-Gained: Around the Green from the metrics he put up in those categories when winning at the Riviera Country Club at the Genesis Invitational. When Matsuyama is cooking, he is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. He leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds — and he ranks 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Greeen in his last 36 rounds. He leads the field this week in Tee-to-Green in 2024. In his last 12 rounds, he leads the tour in Tee-to-Green by 0.33 strokes per round over the next closest professions. In his last 12 rounds, he is also top-ten on the tour in Driving, Approach, and with his Short Game. Matsuyama is also a wizard with his chipper and getting up and down — he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. This is his fourth trip to TPC San Antonio after a tie for 15th place last year along with a tie for 30th place and an event where he was forced to withdraw. Matsuyama will not be saving anything for next week at Augusta — he has the confidence to not only win this tournament and then also go out and win his second green jacket.

Matsuyama is linked with Collin Morikawa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Morikawa is simply in bad form right now. After missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he followed that up with an underwhelming tie for 45th place at THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. He has struggled with both his putter and his irons in these last two tournaments. Morikawa’s challenge with his blade is his biggest long-term issue. He ranks 136th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2024. But after ranking second on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, he has dropped to 52nd in the metric in 2024. The top-four finishers at this tournament last year all finished in the top four in the Approach as well. Morikawa ranks 93rd in Ball-Striking which is just above the tour average. He also ranks 66th this year in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Asking Morikawa to simply flip the switch this week is a lot to ask — especially since this is his debut at this course as a professional. Take Matsuyama (7004) versus Morikawa (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, gusts have been forecasted as possible on Friday. The average score was 72.092 per round last year. The first layer of rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as four inches. Three are bunkers on 17 of the 18 holes which are also consistently rated as the top-ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week. 

BEST BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7004) versus Collin Morikawa (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:50 AM ET.



TOP OVERLAY BET: Corey Conners (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7114) versus Morikawa (7113) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:50 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Corey Conners who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. It’s hard to go wrong with the defending champion and two-time winner at this event. His skill set is an ideal fit for this course — and while he will once again give it his all in Augusta next week, he is not going to turn down a payday this weekend. This season, Conners ranks second on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation, sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, second in the Approach from 275 yards or more away from the hole,  22nd in Driving Distance, and 14th in Proximity. He is in very good form after following up a tie for 18th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill with a tie for 13th place at THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. At THE PLAYERS, he gained more than three strokes both in Off-the-Tee and in the Approach against the field. He has gained more than 3.5 strokes versus the field in Strokes-Gained: Ball-Striking (Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green) in his last five tournaments. He has made the cut in all five of his visits to TPC San Antonio including winning for the first time in 2019 — and his scoring average per round in those 20 rounds is 69.50.

Conners is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head props. Morikawa is simply in bad form right now. After missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he followed that up with an underwhelming tie for 45th place at THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. He has struggled with both his putter and his irons in these last two tournaments. Morikawa’s challenge with his blade is his biggest long-term issue. He ranks 136th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2024. But after ranking second on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, he has dropped to 52nd in the metric in 2024. The top-four finishers at this tournament last year all finished in the top four in the Approach as well. Morikawa ranks 93rd in Ball-Striking which is just above the tour average. He also ranks 66th this year in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Asking Morikawa to simply flip the switch this week is a lot to ask — especially since this is his debut at this course as a professional. Take Matsuyama (7004) versus Morikawa (7003) in head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, gusts have been forecasted as possible on Friday. The average score was 72.092 per round last year. The first layer of rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as four inches. Three are bunkers on 17 of the 18 holes which are also consistently rated as the top-ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

LONG SHOT: Brian Harmon (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Harman (7116) versus Max Homa (7115) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:04 AM ET.

Our Long Bet to win the Valero Texas Open on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Brian Harman who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. The reigning British Open champion is making a strong claim that he has become one of the top ten golfers at least on the PGA Tour. He has four top 18 or better finishes in 2024 after finishing tied for second place at the proverbial fifth major championship at THE PLAYERS Championship last month. What was particularly impressive about his efforts was that he gained over nine strokes versus the field with his irons while posting his personal best Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green numbers for the week. Two weeks prior at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Harman gained over six strokes versus the field with his irons. Harman did miss the cut two weeks ago at the Valspar Championship — but that should have him ornery for this event. Harman has made the cut here in four of his six previous visits with three top-22 or better finishes — but this is his first time back since 2019. I think he chose to compete at this event for a reason.

Harman is linked with Max Homa in Round One head-to-head props. Homa is simply in a slump right now after his tie for 64th place at THE PLAYERS Championship three weeks ago. He lost over four strokes Off-the-Tee versus the field that week. He has lost strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green versus the field in five of his last seven events. He ranks 126th this season on the tour in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking. He is 56th in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. The top-four finishers at this tournament last year all finished in the top four in the Approach as well. Homa returns to this tournament for the first time since 2019 having never finished in the top 40 in his three previous visits. Take Harman (7116) versus Homa (7115) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 goal-line if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere. 



LONG SHOT: Kurt Kitayama (+5000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kitayama (7141) versus (7036) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:15 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Kurt Kitayama who is listed at +5000 odds to win this tournament. Kitayama has made six of seven cuts on the tour this year headlined by a tie for eighth place at the WM Phoenix Open last month. He comes off a 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. He is a threat this week given the shorter rough that will help bombers because he ranks 39th on the tour in Driving Distance and 27th on the tour Driving Distance: All Drives — and he is 13th in Longest Drives so he can take advantage of the forgiving rough. Kitayama also ranks 33rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 40th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green.

Kitayama is linked wth Alex Noren in Round One head-to-head props. Noren is enjoying a fine season after making the cut for the sixth straight event with his 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He is adept at all phases of the game except for his driver. He ranks 137th in Driving Distance and 119th in Longest Drives — and his edge away from the tee is likely going to be minimized with this course now conducive to bombers. He finished tied for fourth place in the last tournament here in November 2022 — but he missed the cut in his prior appearance. Take Kitayama (7141) versus Noren (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere.

BEST BET: Jason Day (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Day (7136) versus Tony Finau (7016) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.

Our Best Bet is on Jason Day who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. The veteran is in good form, plays well in Texas, and will go all-out for the victory if in contention this week. Day has made the cut in six of his seven events in 2024 with three top-tens including a tie for sixth place at Pebble Beach and a ninth place at the Genesis Invitational. Day plays well in Texas where he has registered three of his 13 victories on the PGA Tour have taken place in the state as he has proven himself adept at handling the wind in the Lone Star state. Day is one of the longer drivers off-the-tee — he ranks 37th on the tour this season Driving Distance: All Drives. He also ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so he should feel comfortable letting it rip off-the-tee given the short rough since he is adept at getting up-and-down if he misses the green on his approach. Day is also a good lag putter attuned to larger greens like he will confront this week. He has been effective previously at this tournament when the course probably was more of a challenge. He has made the cut in all three previous appearances with a tie for seventh place in 2020 — and he averaged a score of 69.42 per round in those three years.

Day is linked with Tony Finau in Round One head-to-head props. Finau is the reigning champion from the November 2022 incarnation of this tournament. Finau had made seven straight cuts this year before missing the cut by five strokes last week at the Valspar Championship. But only one of those seven finishes was in the top 12 — and four of his results this year have been top 45 or worse. Finau ranks only 79th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance with his short game holding him back this year. He ranks 132nd in Scrambling and 144th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He missed the cut at this tournament in 2021 after a 24th place in 2020. And while Finau ranks 63rd on the tour this season in Round One scoring, Day ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Round One scoring so far for 2024. Take Day (7136) versus Finau (7135) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Si Woo Kim (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Woo Kim (7137) versus Tom Hoge (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Woo Kim is enjoying a great season with eight made cuts in all eight tournaments this season which has elevated him to 25th in the FedEx standings. He comes off a tie for sixth place at THE PLAYERS Championship where he gained strokes in all four major Stokes-Gained categories. Woo Kim has four victories on the PGA Tour — but he will not sacrifice anything this week for another big payday since he is not really in contention to win the Masters. His skill set fits well with the demands of this course. Woo Kim ranks 13th this season Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is also 12th in Greens-In-Regulation. Woo Kim ranks 20th in Scrambling — and it is this balanced skill set that has him ranked 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tota. The Texas resident finished in 35th place at the November 2022 edition of this tournament — but he gained more than +8.0 strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green that week.

Woo Kim is linked with Tom Hoge in Round One head-to-head props. Hoge is elite with his iron play — he ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But Hoge is simply not good with his driver — and that appears to be the wrong skill set for the revamped course in March this week. Hoge ranks 141st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee with that metric brought down by ranking 151st in Total Driving and 134th in Driving Distance. Not surprisingly, Hoge has struggled at this tournament with a missed cut and a 46th place in his two previous visits. Hoge ranks a solid 48th on the tour this year in Round One scoring — but Woo Kim ranks 23rd in Round One scoring. Take Woo Kim (7137) versus Tom Hoge (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7165) versus Cameron Young (7166) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:00 PM ET.

Lowry is having a great time during the Florida swing portion of the PGA Tour. He followed up a tie for fourth place two weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches with a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. He had a part of the lead at the end of the day for each of the first three rounds before being overtaken by Scottie Scheffler. Lowry is playing with tremendous confidence right now while ranking in the top ten players in the world rankings. The former British Open winner likely has his invite to the Masters sewed up — so he can play this event pressure-free. He ranks fifth on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he is 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Getting safely on the green is essential for success at this event. Since THE Players Championship moved to March and dismissing the 2020 suspended tournament (COVID) and the weather-marred 2022 event, the three winners here all led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking in the top ten in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Lowry thrives on courses designed by Pete Dye — he has two third-place finishes at Harbour Town and a fourth place at the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island. He also has a nice track record here at TPC Sawgrass where he has two top 15 finishes since 2021 including an eighth-place finish that year. After opening at +3500 odds, his price has risen to +4500 which offers tremendous value given his form.

Lowry is linked with Cameron Young for Round One head-to-head props. Young comes off a middling tie for 36th place last week at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer. He is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour — and I’m not sure it happens on a difficult course like this with a stacked field given the prestige of it being the “fifth” major championship. Young’s strength is his distance off-the-tee — but that is neutralized this week on the Pete Dye course that features so many dog-leg holes. He ranks only 38th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, he ranks 75th in Bogey Avoidance — and he is averaging a bogey on 12.57% per hole (as of last week which is ominous at a difficult course like this. Young’s putting can be inconsistent — he ranks 106th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Form has been an accurate barometer for success at THE PLAYERS Championship as 11 of the last 12 winners finished in 22nd place or better in their previous tournament. Lowry checks that box — and Young does not. Take Lowry (7165) versus Young (7166) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter.

BEST BET: Will Zalatoris (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Zalatoris (7162) versus Collin Morikawa (7161) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win THE Players Championship is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +2800 odds to win this event at DraftKings. While I have been reluctant to jump back on the Zalatoris bandwagon after he underwent back surgery which derailed his 2023 season, the rising superstar seems back in full form. After posting a tie for 13th place at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, he followed that up with a tie for second place at the challenging Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles last month. He backed that up with a tie for fourth place last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club where he enjoyed a five-stroke lead on Day Three before getting steamrolled (as everyone else did as well) by Scottie Scheffler. With second-place finishes at the Masters, US Open, and the PGA Championship under his belt, Zalatoris seems once again poised to take his game to the next level. He is already one of the best ball-strikers on the planet. He currently ranks seventh on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, eighth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and 21st in Par 5 Scoring. In his two previous signature events with the higher paydays last week and at the Genesis Invitational, he ranks top-five in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, top ten in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, top 15 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and top 30 in Driving Distance. Getting safely on the green is essential for success at this event. Since THE Players Championship moved to March and dismissing the 2020 suspended tournament (COVID) and the weather-marred 2022 event, the three winners here all led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking in the top ten in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. But what is most encouraging about his game now is his improved putting which had been his Achilles heel in the past. He is gaining strokes versus the field weekly with his blade — and he ranked in the top 22 in putting in both signature events earlier this season. Zalatoris has made the cut in each of his previous trips here including a 26th place in 2022 and a 21st place last year a month before he would eventually withdraw from the Masters and miss the rest of the season due to his ailing back. He now seems poised to get right back on track to the promising start to his career.

Zalatoris is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head matchups. Morikawa has a 14th place at Pebble Beach along with a 19th place at the Genesis Invitational — but those results are tempered by the smaller fields that signature events have allowed for in this new era on the PGA Tour. Granted, Morikawa won the Zozo Championship last October while most of the top pros were vacationing — but he only had two top-ten finished last year after missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last March. We faded Morikawa in a head-to-head at the Arnold Palmer last week — and he missed the cut. His putting continues to hold him back — he currently ranks 135th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Morikawa’s ball striking has been below his usual expectations as well. He ranks 105th on the tour in 2024 in Greens-in-Regulation which is a trouble on a course where the pros only reached the Greens-in-Regulation 59% in last season’s event at TPC Sawgrass. Morikawa ranks only 100th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so he can struggle to get up-and-down if he misses the green. Furthermore, he ranks 111th on the tour in Total Driving and 88th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Morikawa finished 13th at this tournament last year — but he missed the cut in 2022 after 41st place in 2021. Form has been an accurate barometer for success at THE PLAYERS Championship as 11 of the last 12 winners finished in 22nd place or better in their previous tournament. Zalatoris checks that box — and Morikawa does not. Take Zalatoris (7162) versus Morikawa (7161) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7152) versus Max Homa (7019) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET.

Matsuyama slumped a bit last season — but the former Masters champion seems to be back at full strength now. His victory at the Genesis Invitational last month was the second most impressive for any PGA Tour professional save for Scottie Scheffler’s dominant performance last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But while Scheffler sits at underlay +550 odds, Matsuyama opened this week at +3000 and has dropped to a very tasty +4000 price. He comes off a solid 12th-place finish last week at Bay Hill where he approved in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teem and Shots-Gained: Around the Green. In his last 36 holes, he ranks third in the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks in the top ten in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in his last 20 rounds. When Matsuyama is cooking, he is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Getting safely on the green is essential for success at this event. Since THE Players Championship moved to March and dismissing the 2020 suspended tournament (COVID) and the weather-marred 2022 event, the three winners here all led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking in the top ten in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Matsuyama has three top-ten finishes at this tournament and six top-23 or better finishes overall in his career. His best result was last year when he finished in fifth place — and who knows what happened in 2020 when he led the field after Day One with a round of 63 before everything shut down because of COVID. He offers great value this week.

Matsuyama is linked with Max Homa for Round One head-to-head props. Homa had not finished higher than a tie for 13th place so far in 2024 before his tie for 8th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. His Sunday round of 73 was a disappointment. Despite the top-ten finish last week, his form this season remains a bit discouraging for him given the smaller fields in the first three signature events as well as that the west coast swing is now done where he usually plays his best golf as a Southern California native. Homa is just 141st on the tour in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green). In his last five tournaments, he has not gained more than +1.0 strokes in the Approach versus the field. Second shots are critical for success at TPS Sawgrass — but Homa ranks 133rd of the 144 professionals this week in long iron proximity. He also ranks just 60th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Matsuyama (7152) versus Homa (7151) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut. 


LONG SHOT: Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7027) versus Cameron Young (7028) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:45 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Matt Fitzpatrick who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick is lurking after his third 21st place or better in his six tournaments in 2024 with his tie for 21st place last week at PGA National. The 2022 US Open winner tends to perform better on difficult courses where par is a good score. He ranks third in the field at this tournament in the last five years by averaging +2.13 strokes versus the field per round (minimum ten rounds). In his nine trips to Bay Hill, he has seven top-30s with six top-14s or better. He finished in second place at this tournament in 2019 — and eight of the last nine winners of this tournament finished tied for 17th place or better in previous trips. One of the reasons Fitzpatrick should be considered dangerous on difficult courses is because he leads the field in the last 12 months in Scrambling. Long irons are also important on this course as 60% of the Approach shots last year came from at least 150 yards — and 30% of those Approaches were from 200 yards. Despite a relatively slow start, Fitzpatrick still ranks 18th in the Approach from 175-200 yards and he ranks 20th in the Approach from 200 or yards away. International players tend to perform well here given the wind — so backing Fitzpatrick as a long shot is prudent.

Fitzpatrick is linked with Cameron Young in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Young is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour — and I’m not sure it happens at a difficult course like this with a stacked field given the purse of the signature event. Young comes off a tie for fourth place last week at the PGA National — and he is intriguing at Bay Hill given his length Off-the-Tee. He has two top-15 finishes in his previous two trips here. But Young ranks 66th in Bogey Avoidance — and he is averaging a bogey on 12.57% per hole which is ominous at a difficult course like this. Young’s putting can be inconsistent — he ranks 72nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. The last five winners at this event have finished in the top 12 in putting on average. Young also ranks 54th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and six of the last winners of this event went into the week ranked in the top six in the field in that category. Take Fitzpatrick (7027) versus Young (7028) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.

BEST BET: Viktor Hovland (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7009) versus Collin Morikawa (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:20 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Hovland opened 2024 with a solid tie for 22nd place at The Sentry — but he did not play well at Pebble Beach where he settled for a tie for 58th place. He withdrew from the WM Phoenix Open to return home to Norway to correct some issues with his swing. He returned to the states at the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera County Club in Los Angeles where his game looked much better in a tie for 19th place. His Ball-Striking was much better that week as he gained at least +1.5 strokes per round both Off-the-Tee and in Approach-the-Green. He also gained strokes Around-the-Green on both Saturday and Sunday of that event — and his short game tends to be his Achilles’ heel. Hovland does perform better in the short game when chipping from thick rough or dealing with firm Bermuda greens — so that bodes well for him this week. Let’s remember the great summer Hovland enjoyed when he finished second at the PGA Championship before winning The Memorial Tournament at Jack Nicklaus’ course before finally winning the PGA Tour Championship with back-to-back victories in the playoffs. His power with his driver and with long irons give him an edge this week. He ranked fifth on the tour last season in Total Driving. He also ranked 11th on the Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and six of the last seven winners of this tournament entered the week ranking in the top 16 or better in that metric (granted, I’m using last year’s numbers for Hovland but the sample sizes are different now with the tour reverting it’s new “season” to the beginning of the calendar year rather than after the PGA Championship in August). Additionally, 30% of the approach shots at this tournament come from at least 200 yards away by the professionals — and Hovland ranked seventh on the tour for 2022-23 in the Approach from 200-225 yards. Hovland leads the field in Shots-Gained per round when playing in Florida for the last years. In his five starts at this tournament, he finished tied for second place in 2022 and tied for tenth place last year. He has gained more than +9.0 strokes from Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Tee-to-Green) in each of his last two appearances at Bay Hill. Eight of the last nine winners at this tournament had previously finished tied for 17th place or better — so Hovland checks plenty of boxes this week.

Hovland is linked with Collin Morikawa for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Morikawa followed up a 14th place at Pebble Beach with a 19th place at the Genesis Invitational — but those results are tempered by the smaller fields that signature events have allowed for in this new era on the PGA Tour. Granted, Morikawa won the Zozo Championship last October while most of the top pros were vacationing — but he only had two top-ten finished last year after missing the cut at this tournament last March. His putting continues to hold him back — he currently ranks 119th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. That is a problem at Bay Hill since the last five winners all finished in the top 12 in Shots-Gained: Putting. But Morikawa’s ball striking has been below his usual expectations. He ranks 75th on the tour in 2024 in Greens-in-Regulation which is a trouble on a course where the pros only reached the Greens-in-Regulation 56% of the time. Morikawa ranks only 50th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so he can struggle to get up-and-down if he misses the green. The length of this course will challenge him — he ranks 134th on the tour in Total Driving and 88th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Morikawa had not played this event since 2020 before last year. Not only is that telling — but his last four rounds going back to the salad days of pre-COVID have been over par. Take Hovland (7009) versus Morikawa (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut. 



TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7020) versus Max Homa (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:10 AM ET.

Burns is lurking with four straight top tens on the PGA Tour. After a tie for sixth place at The American Express in January, he followed that p with a tenth-place finish at Pebble Beach. He then finished in third place at the WM Phoenix Open last month where he led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and finished third in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. In his most recent start at the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles three weeks ago, he finished in tenth place in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and second in Scrambling. Burns can handle the length of this course — he ranks seventh on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and tenth in Driving Distance. He also has had success dealing with heavy wind. And while only 56% of the professionals last year reached the Greens-in-Regulation, Burns currently ranks tied for the 20th on the tour in Greens-in-Regulation. And if he misses the green, Burns leads the tour in Scrambling. And after ranking eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting last season, he now ranks 14th on the tour with his blade. In his last four events, he has finished in the top 17 in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he has finished in the top nine in his two tournaments. Putting is critical this week —  the last five winners of this tournament finished 12th or better for the week in putting. Burns has won five times on the PGA Tour since May of 2021 — and two of those victories have been in Florida. Burns' best finish at Bay Hill was a tie for ninth place in 2022 — and eight of the last nine winners here had previously finished in a tie for 17th place or better here.

Burns is linked with Max Homa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Homa has not finished higher than a tie for 13th place so far in 2023 which is a bit discouraging for him given the smaller fields in the first three signature events as well as that the west coast swing is now done where he usually plays his best golf as a Southern California native. The deeper metrics are troubling. While Burns ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green), Homa is just 124th on the tour in that category. In his last four tournaments, he has not gained more than +1.0 strokes in the Approach versus the field. Second shots at Bay Hill are of at least 200 yards — and Homa has been over par on average when on the Approach from 200-225 yards this season. Homa ranks in the bottom ten in the field in both 200 or more yards out in proximity from both the rough and the fairway. He also ranks 109th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Burns (7020) versus Homa (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508-yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Eric Cole (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Cole (7013) versus Sungjae Im (7014) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:25 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Eric Cole who is listed at +2800 odds to win this tournament. Cole has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 events — and he has five top-25 results in 2024 after his tie for tenth place in his last tournament at the Genesis Invitational. Cole ranks third in the field in his last 50 rounds in Shots-Gained: Total — behind Rory McIlroy and J.T. Poston. Accuracy off the tee is important on this course given all the water and sand bunkers. After ranking 163rd in Driver Accuracy last season, he improved to 47th in that metric in 2024. He ranks 24th in Bogey Avoidance — and the last ten winners in the field averaged sixth in the field in that metric. He lost in a playoff in his debut last season — and he could put a cherry on top of his rise in level of play in the last twelve months with a victory now.

Cole is linked with Sungjae Im in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Im is not in good form — his 44th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational was the best effort in his last four tournaments. I have backed Im many times in the past — but he simply is not in good form right now. He lost strokes in every major category but his putter in Los Angeles at the Riviera County Club two weeks ago — and he lost -4.6 strokes in Tee-To-Green. Im ranks 107th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and eight of the last nine winners at this event finished in the top five for the week in this category. Im is just 160th in Greens-In-Regulation — and four of the top nine finishers in this tournament finished in the top seven in that category. He is also just 71st in Bogey Avoidance this season. Im won here in 2020 — I’m not saying we have not made money off him. But he has missed the cut and finished tied for 42nd place in his last two visits. Take Cole (7013) versus Im (7014) in tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508 yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three-inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

BEST BET: Russell Henley (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Henley (7006) versus Cameron Young (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 7:50 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Cognizant Classic is on Russell Henley who is listed at +2500 odds to win this tournament. Henley comes off a tie for 24th place at the Genesis Invitational two weeks where he gained +1.2 Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for fourth place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i earlier this year. Now the Macon, Georgia, native and former University of Georgia Bulldog returns his Southeast region of the country where the Bermuda grass thrives. Three of his four victories on the PGA Tour and 14 of his 20 career top-fives have been on courses that feature Bermuda greens. While losing strokes with his blade on every other putting surface, Henley gains +0.3 Shots-Gained: Putting when on Bermuda greens. Henley’s accuracy Off-the-Tee and precision with his middle irons makes him a great fit for this course. He has gained +2 strokes versus the field in Tee-to-Green on average in his last five tournaments — and eight of the last nine winners of this event finished in the top-five in the field in that category. Henley also ranks 23rd on the tour in 2024 in Bogey Avoidance — and the last ten winners of this tournament has averaged sixth in the field for the week in that category. Henley has a great track record at PGA National where he won the event in 2014 and has made the cut in all nine of his trips. Overall, he has six top-25 finishes in his nine appearances here — and his last trip to PGA National resulted in a tie for third place in 2021. In his last four appearances here, he gained more than +3 strokes versus the field in Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach the Green).

Henley is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head props. Young comes off a 16th place at the PGA Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Young is long Off-the-Tee — and he is reliable with his second shot approach shots. But Young’s short game leaves much to be desired. He ranks 169th on the tour for 2024 in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and this is troublesome with all the sand traps on the course where he ranks 107th on the tour in Sand Saves this season. He also ranks just 104th in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the top-five finishers at this tournament last year all finished in the top four in putting. Young also ranks just 67th in Bogey Avoidance. Young finished a solid 16th here in his only professional appearance at the PA National — but that week demonstrated his volatility with his great ball-striking but shaky short game. He scored 3-over par on Friday and 4-over par on Saturday that week. Take Henley (7006) versus Young (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508 yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three-inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. 



LONG SHOT: Chris Kirk (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kirk (7110) versus Corey Conners (7109) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:15 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Chris Kirk who is listed +4000 odds at DraftKings. Kirk should be feeling feisty this week after missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA Genesis Invitational. Kirk had made the cut in his first four events this year including winning the PGA The Sentry to begin the new season in a stacked field in Hawai’i. Kirk won this tournament last year after previously finishing tied for seventh and 25th place here — so he is very comfortable at the PGA National. At these odds, I’m quite comfortable in taking our chances in his running it back. Kirk ranks third in the field in Shots-Gained: Total when playing at courses in Florida in the last three years. Kirk ranks 10th on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and eight of the last nine winners of this event finished in the top-five in this category for the week. Kirk also ranks 13th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance in 2024 — and the last ten winners at PGA National averaged sixth in the field for the week in this category.

Kirk is linked with Corey Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Conners comes off a tie for 24th place at the Genesis Invitational in what has been a solid but unspectacular start to the year where he has made the cut in all five appearances on the tour but has not finished better than that result in Los Angeles two weeks ago. Conners is a great ball-striker — but his short game remains the weakness in his game. He ranks 165th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the top-five finishers at this event all placed in the top-four in putting last year. He also ranks 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and 167th in Sand Save Percentage which is not encouraging with the 60 bunkers at this course. Conners ranks 64th on the tour this season in Bogey Avoidance which is not a good formula for success at this tournament. In his last visit here in 2020, he missed the cut — and it does not speak to his confidence playing here that he has not returned before now. In his other appearance in 2018, he settled for 59th place. Take Kirk (7110) versus Conners (7109) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter.

LONG SHOT: Jake Knapp (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Knapp (7123) versus Ryo Hisatsune (7124) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:55 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Jake Knapp who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Knapp is the early front-runner to win the PGA Rookie of the Year honor after a tie for third place at Torrey Pines last month before a tie for 28th place at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. What is exciting about Knapp is his potential length off-the-tee. Knapp is focusing on ball speed off his club — and he is getting a whopping 186 miles per hour off his driver. He ranks 22nd on the tour in Driving Distance — and his troubles with accuracy are mitigated this week with the wide fairways and the forgiving rough. Knapp also has a good overall game. In those last two tournaments, he has gained more than 4.0 strokes per round in Approach the Green — and he has also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. An intriguing aspect to Knapp this week is his great pedigree on the Korn Ferry Tour last year when he finished off with ten straight-made cuts. With most of the top-level pros bypassing this event on a resort course, a Korn Ferry veteran like Knapp is well-versed in scoring low numbers on a course like this.

Knapp is linked with Ryo Hisatsune in Round One head-to-head props. Hisatune had three top-33 finishes before missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He is a wizard around the green — but that is not a skill that will make a big difference this week. Instead, he ranks just 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2024 — and Tony Finau led the field in that metric the last two years en route to finishing in first and second place at this event. For comparison's sake, Knapp ranks 35th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Knapp (7123) versus Hisatsune (7124) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter.

BEST BET: Nicolai Hojgaard (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hojgaard (7005) versus Emiliano Grillo (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the Mexico Open is on Nicolai Hojgaard who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. The 22-year-old from Denmark seems on the cusp of breaking out on the PGA Tour after posting 13 straight made cuts worldwide with a victory, two-second places, and a third-place finish. He finished tied for second place last month at Torrey Pines — and there has been a correlation between success on that golf course and good results at this event. Length with the driver is critical at this event with its wide fairways and forgiving rough. Hojgaard ranked second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open — and he led the field in that category the next week at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Hojgaard success with the driver comes from his power more than his accuracy — he ranks 31st on the tour in Driving Distance. He is also good with his irons. After ranking 56th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards out for the 2022-23 season, he leads the PGA Tour in that metric in 2024, albeit from a small sample size from three PGA events. Hojgaard also ranked 24th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the top-six finishers at this event last year all finished in the top nine in putting. Most of the top pros are taking this week off — so that 24th ranking looks even better relative to the field this week. And while putting on the slow Paspalum grass is a different experience, Hojgaard has demonstrated his ability to adapt to this surface by finishing in second place at the Corales Puntacanala in Mexico last year which also features those greens. Hojgaard finished tied for 33rd place at this tournament last year while leading the field in Proximity to the Hole. He is poised to win his first PGA Tour event this time around.

Hojgaard is linked with Emiliano Grillo in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Grillo has made the cut in all six of his PGA Tour events in 2024 with help from a hot putter — but he is struggling with his irons right now. In finishing tied for 44th place last week at the PGA Genesis Invitational, he lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Grillo ranks only 77th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he falls to 120th on the tour when the distance is from the 175 to 200-yard range. He is not long with his drier either — he ranks 152nd on the tour in Driving Distance. Grillo ranks 115th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and the importance of success in this skill is demonstrated by Tony Finau who has led the field in that category the last two years leading to second-place and first-place results (I don’t like Finau this year because of his price and his current experimentation with his putter — FYI). Grillo also ranks 99th on the tour in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach the Green) — and both Finau and Jon Rahm finished second in that metric en route to winning this event. Grillo has made the cut in both his previous appearances here including a tie for fifth place last year — but he is not as confident with his iron right now. Take Hojgaard (7005) versus Grillo (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Taylor Pendrith (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7018) versus Patrick Rodgers (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:30 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed +2500 odds at DraftKings. The 32-year-old Canadian has taken his game to the next level this year with two top-10 finishes in his three PGA Tour events. After a tie for tenth place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i, he comes off a tie for fourth place at Pebble Beach three weeks ago. Pendrith has five top-15 finishes in his last seven tournaments going back to last season. Pendrith has the power with his driver to have success this week — he ranks 10th in Driving Distance this season after asking 30th and 10th in that metric in the previous two years. Pendrith also brings a strong overall game to this event — he ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He ranks 23rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green as well — and Tony Finau led the field in that category the last two years en route to his second and first-place finishes (I don’t like Finau this year because of his price and his current experimentation with his putter — FYI). Even better, he ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards — and that ranking is even more impressive when considering that most of the top pros took this week off. Pendrith also ranks 24th on the tour in Par 5 Scoring this year — and both winners of this event the last two years tied for second in that category while shooting 12-under par on the Par 5s. Pendrith ranks 14th in Bogey Avoidance this year as well — and Finau only had two bogeys in Rounds Two through Four in his second-place result two years ago before only two Bogeys and a double last year when taking the title. Pendrith is 15th on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Putting — and each top-six finisher last year at this event finished in the top nine in putting. He has also shown proficiency with his blade on Paspalum greens as he finished 15th at the El Cordova tournament in Mexico. He has experience on this course as well after a tie for 30th place last April at this event. He is rested and ready.

Pendrith is linked with Patrick Rodgers in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Rodgers has two 10th-place finishes at this tournament — but form is an issue for him lately as he followed up a 79th place finish at Pebble Beach with a missed cut last week at the Genesis Invitational. Rodgers’ blade is letting him down right now — he ranks 121st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. And while he is long with his driver, he ranks just 58th this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks just 130th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards — and he is 95th in the Approach from 200 or more yards away. Additionally, Rodgers ranks 41st in Par 5 Scoring and 50th in Bogey Avoidance — so Pendrith should be poised for a better week. Take Pendrith (7018) versus Rodgers (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour.

LONG SHOT: Adam Scott (+3000 odds at DraftKings). xRecommended Prop Bet: Scott (7032) versus Matt Fitzpatrick (7031) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:40 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorite is on Adam Scott who is listed at +3000 odds to win this event. Scott may be the best proverbial horse for the course this week. He has won this tournament twice including his last victory in 2020. He has made the cut in 14 of his 15 trips here — and he has another two second-place finishes and five more top-15 results at The Riviera Country Club. Overall, it’s six top-ten finishes in his last nine visits here — and the thing is this week is that the 43-year-old comes in with great form. He opened his PGA Tour with a tie for 20th place at Pebble Beach before a tie for 8th place last week at the WM Phoenix Open which is an event that would not seem to fit the veteran’s typical oeuvre. In Scott’s last six events worldwide, he has five top tens, and all six finished in the top 20. In Phoenix last week, he finished tied for eighth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he finished 12th in the Approach at Pebble Beach. Scott ranks fifth on the tour for 2024 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and the last two winners at this event led the field in Approach for the week. Scott ranks sixth in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and seven of the last eight winners at this tournament finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Scott also ranked 15th in Driving Distance (all drives) last season — and seven of the last 12 winners at this event finished in the top 12 in that category for the week.

Scott is linked with Matt Fitzpatrick in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fitzpatrick comes off a tie for 15th place at the WM Phoenix Open which was his best result in 2024 — but his underlying metrics are below Scott’s so far this year. Fitzpatrick ranks 115th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 85th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 161st on the tour Three-Putts — and the last ten winners of this tournament had nine three-putts for the entire tournament once on the green with eight of these winners having one or zero three-putts for the week. Furthermore, Fitzpatrick ranks 88th in Bogey Avoidance in 2024 — and seven of the last eight winners of this tournament have finished in the top nine for the week in avoiding bogeys. Take Scott (7032) versus Fitzpatrick (7031) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour.

BEST BET: Xander Schauffele (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Schauffele (7006) versus Rory McIlroy (700) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:30 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Schauffele has not won a PGA Tour event since the summer of 2022 at the Scottish Open — but, apparently, I just cannot quit him. While initially dismissing him this week, after assessing the form of his primary competitors and then examining the specific traits that are predictive of success, it would be the regret that I would never forget if I got off him this week — especially with his odds dropping from his initial +1400 price at DraftKings on Monday. Despite being stuck on seven PGA Tour wins, he leads the tour with 38 straight made cuts — so he has been remarkably consistent. He started 2024 with a tie for tenth place at The Sentry, a tie for third place at The American Express, and then a tie for ninth place at the Farmers Insurance Open. He then took a step back with a tie for 54th place at Pebble Beach before dropping from the WM Phoenix Open last week. Schauffele cited a wrist injury for the withdrawal early in the week — and that is a red flag. On the other hand, he may simply decided to dodge the booze fest that is that tournament in Phoenix last week, take a breather, get back to 100%, and then attack this event which now has a higher payout as a signature event to compete with the money on the LIV Tour. I’m taking a small leap of faith — but the price is right. Schauffele has a great track record at The Riviera Country Club where he has made the cut in all six of his previous visits including four top-15 results. His best finish is tied for ninth place in 2019. His average score after the cut in all six previous appearances is a crisp 68.67. But the clincher for Schauffele is how well he matches up with the attributes that have defined success at this tournament recently. Seven of the last ten winners of The Genesis Invitational have finished in the top 12 in Driving Distance (all drives) for the week while each of the last ten winners has finished in the top 28 in that category — and Schauffele ranks 12th on the PGA Tour in 2024 in Driving Distance (all drives). Even better, seven of the last eight winners of this tournament finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and Schauffele ranks fifth on the tour this year in that category. Furthermore, seven of the last eight winners of this event finished in the top nine in Bogey Avoidance for the week — and Schauffele leads the tour this year in avoiding bogeys. Four of the top five finishers last year at this tournament finished in the top seven in Scrambling for the week — and Schauffele ranks 17th on the tour in Scrambling. Lastly, the last ten winners of this tournament had nine three-putts for the entire tournament once on the green — and eight of these winners had one or zero three-putts for the week. Schauffele ranks ninth on the tour this year in Three-Putt Avoidance.

Schauffele is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Frankly, I usually avoid McIlroy in my selections since his price is usually too low for my liking — but I’m not fond of fading him either. But in this instance, McIlroy is in shaky form — and I’m skeptical how much he can flip the switch in the short run when his real objective is getting amped up for the Masters in six or so weeks. McIlroy had a good start to 2024 with a tie for second place and a first place in Dubai — but he struggled with his irons when settling for a tie for 66th place at Pebble Beach two weeks ago. Going back to last year, McIlroy ranked 21st in Bogey Avoidance last season — good, but vulnerable relative to how Schauffle is doing avoiding red numbers. More strikingly, McIlroy ranked 66th in Scrambling last year which may cause him more trouble this week. Take Schauffele (7006) versus McIlroy (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7124) versus Viktor Hovland (7123) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:00 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sam Burns who is priced at +2200 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Burns is in great form coming off a tie for third place at the WM Phoenix Open where finished +6.5 strokes above the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. That was his third top ten in 2024 after a tie for sixth place at The American Express and a tenth place at Pebble Beach. All 15 of his rounds this year have been under part. Distance off the tee helps at the Riviera Country Club where seven of the last ten winners of The Genesis Invitational have finished in the top 12 in Driving Distance (all drives) for the week while each of the last ten winners has finished in the top 28 in that category — and Burns ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in 2024 in Driving Distance (all drives). Furthermore, seven of the last eight winners of this event finished in the top nine in Bogey Avoidance for the week — and Burns ranks fourth on the tour this year in avoiding bogeys. Four of the top five finishers last year at this tournament finished in the top seven in Scrambling for the week — and Burns ranks 11th on the tour in Scrambling. Lastly, the last ten winners of this tournament had nine three-putts for the entire tournament once on the green — and eight of these winners had one or zero three-putts for the week. Burns ranks tied for ninth on the tour this year in Three-Putt Avoidance. Burns has something to prove at this event after blowing a Sunday lead here on the Sunday in 2021 where he finished one shot off a playoff. He has five PGA Tour wins — and he would love to make this his sixth.

Burns is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. We have won a lot of money on Hovland over the years — and I remain bullish on him long-term. But he is out of form right now. He decided to withdraw from the WM Phoenix Open because of something off with his game. After a tie for 22nd place at The Sentry in early January, he followed that up with a tie for 58th place at Pebble Beach two weeks ago. He went back home to Norway to work on his game before flying back to California for this event. It sounds like a short-term slump — but expecting to simply flip the switch and outperform a pro at the level of Burns on Thursday is probably too much to ask. At Pebble Beach, Hovland lost -3 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and he lost another -2 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Hovland has lost strokes with what is typically his very reliable irons in three straight tournaments. Maybe he gets it going — but he comes into this event under less than desirable circumstances after bypassing the WM Phoenix Open by going back home. Take Burns (7124) versus Hovland (7213) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 shots if available and priced not higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.

TOP OVERLAY BET: JT Poston (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Poston (7147) versus Si Woo Kim (7130) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:55 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on J.T. Poston who is listed at +3500 odds. Poston opened the week at +3000 odds but has dropped to +3500 — despite his excellent form where he has four straight top 20 finishes in 2024 after his tie for 20th place at Pebble Beach last week. He finished tied for 11th place at the American Express two weeks ago. Poston remains undervalued due to his significant improvement in the last six months with his iron play last summer. While he ranked 37th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 13th in the Greens-In-Regulation for the 2022-23 season, he was at his best later in the summer where he registered 24th place or better finishes in seven of his nine tournaments. He came out firing in 2024 with his tie for fifth place at The Sentry. He followed that up with a tie for sixth place at the PGA Sony Open, Poston now has seven top-ten finishes in his last 13 events — and he has three top-six results in his last six tournaments. Poston has always been effective with his short game — so his improved play with his irons makes him a threat every week. Poston ranked 24th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he also ranked ninth in Scrambling last season — so he if does miss the green in regulation, he should still avoid bogeys. The last nine winners here have also finished tied for sixth or better for the week in Par-Breakers (shooting better than Par). Poston is 15th on the tour this season in Par-Breakers. Furthermore, 12 of the last 13 winners here have finished tied for seventh place or better in one of their previous five starts — and Poston checks that box off. The last eight winners here have previously finished in the top ten here as well — and Poston nearly fits that bill with an 11th-place finish at this tournament in 2021. He did miss the cut here last February — but that was before his improvement in play with his irons in the summer. He has made the cut in his four other appearances at the WM Phoenix Open including a 23rd-place finish in 2022.

Poston is linked with Si Woo Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Kim ranks slightly better in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Ball-Striking versus Poston — but Poston still ranks in the top 34 in both categories while Kim is 17th in Tee-to-Green and 24th in Ball-Striking so the difference is not significant. But Kim does not compare as well in some of these other indicators for success at TPC Scottsdale. He comes off his best performance of the season last week with a tie for 14th place at Pebble Beach where he gained +5.2 strokes versus the field with his putter. But he had not finished higher than 25th place in his other three starts in 2024 — so he does not meet the seventh place or better marker in his previous five starts that 12 of the last 13 winners here have achieved. Kim only ranks 30th on the tour in 2024 in Par-Breakers — so he seems less likely to finish the week in the top six in that category which the last nine winners here have registered. Kim has a spotty record in his eight trips to this tournament. He has missed the cut three times — and his tie for 23rd place last year was his best finish. The only other time he finished inside the top 50 was in 2022 when he finished in 26th place. This course history suggests he may not love the festive atmosphere of this unique tournament. And while neither professional has finished in the top ten here as the previous eight winners have, Poston just missed with his 11th-place result in 2021 while Kim has not come close to that accomplishment at TPC Scottsdale. Take Poston (7142) versus Kim (7141) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.

BEST BET: Justin Thomas (+1100 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Thomas (7131) versus Scottie Scheffler (7132) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:30 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the WM Phoenix Open is on Justin Thomas who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. I initially thought I was passing on Thomas — but after assessing the evidence and then seeing his Monday odds at DraftKings drop from +1000 to +1100, I concluded that I would be riddled with regret if I did not invest in Thomas even at these short odds this week. Thomas simply checks all the boxes this week — and I can live with 11:1 odds as opposed to Scheffler who is 4.5:1. Thomas endured a horrific slump last summer — but his reputation was enough for him to be named to the US Ryder Cup team. He now says that the vote of confidence helped him find his elite form again — as did the crowds that were cheering him on during that event. This tournament is the most gregarious crowd event on the PGA Tour — and I want to target pros who have thrived in these atmospheres in the past. Thomas is now in great form — after tying for sixth place last week at Pebble Beach, he has top-six finishes in four straight events. He also finished in a tie for third place two weeks ago at The American Express — and he has finished all seven of those rounds with scores in the 60s. If not for Round Four getting canceled last week, perhaps Thomas competes to win that tournament after being held back by an unusually poor effort with his putter in his two rounds at the Pebble Beach course. Thomas has a great track record at this event with six top-20 finishes since 2018 with an average score of 67.75 per round. He has four top-ten finishes in his last five appearances here as well — he finished fourth last year and has two other third-place results since 2019. Thomas has not won on the PGA Tour since the PGA Championship in 2022 — and, frankly, the 22-month drought was scaring me off him (it’s been profitable to continue to fade perennial losers on the tour over the years). But this tournament has consistently been the spot where golfers breaking losing runs. Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka all won their first PGA Tour event here. Koepka won for the second time here to snap a 19-month drought. Webb Simpson broke a 20-month drought by winning here. Rickie Fowler won here after a 23-month interim from his previous PGA Tour title. Gary Woodland had not won in 3 1/2 years on the tour before winner here as well. Additionally, Thomas is thriving in the specific skill sets that have been critical for success at this tournament. Of the last nine winners here, all nine finished tied for 19th or better in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week — and six of those nine winners finished first or second for the week in that metric. Thomas leads the PGA Tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Six of the last seven winners here have finished tied for six or better in Ball-Striking (Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green). Thomas also leads the PGA Tour in Ball-Striking this year. The last nine winners here have also finished tied for sixth or better for the week in Par-Breakers (shooting better than Par). Thomas is second on the tour in 2024. Furthermore, 12 of the last 13 winners here have finished tied for seventh place or better in one of their previous five starts — and Thomas checks that box off. The last eight winners here have previously finished in the top ten here as well — and Thomas also fits that bill.

Thomas is linked with Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. This is a great value bet when getting plus money even when grabbing the valuable +0.5 strokes for the opening round. Scheffler is the two-time defending champion here — but winning this event three times in a row is uncharted territory at most tournaments. Defending champions have additional tournament responsibilities that will not help his Thursday preparation. The weakness in Scheffler’s game is with his putter — he ranks 117th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2024. Optimists would argue that he is getting better with his blade since he ranked 162nd in this category for the 2022-23 season. Maybe — Scheffler ranks only 67th in Ball-Striking this season which is not an encouraging metric going into this week. Additionally, after Scheffler led the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring last season, he has fallen to 19th in Round One Scoring in 2024. In winning this tournament the last two years, Scheffler scored 68 in the opening round both times. Thomas has shot below 68 in Round One at this tournament in three of his nine trips here — and he has come in at 68 two other times in those nine previous appearances. Thomas also ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring in 2024. Take Thomas (7131) versus Scheffler (7132) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.

LONG SHOT: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7135) versus Cameron Young (7136) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:30 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Matsuyama emphatically checks the Horse for the Course box as a two-time winner at this event. He also finished tied for second here and has seven top-ten results at TPC Scottsdale overall. Matsuyama has been quoted as saying “I love playing here” — so it is safe to say the loud atmosphere is to his liking. The concern for the 31-year-old has been his form after he failed to play up to his high expectations last summer. The 2021 Masters champion now finds himself outside the top 50 in the worldwide rankings for the first time in 10 1/2 years — but he is showing signs of regaining his elite form. He finished tied for 13th place two weeks ago at Torrey Pines — and he finished the week fifth best in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He closed out 2023 with a tie for 10th place at the Dunlop Phoenix Open as well. He was just tied for 71st place last week at Pebble Beach before the fourth round was canceled last week. Matsuyama has not won on the PGA Tour since winning the Sony Open in 2022 — but this tournament has consistently been the spot where golfers break losing runs. Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka all won their first PGA Tour event here — as did Matsuyama. Koepka won for the second time here to snap a 19-month drought. Webb Simpson broke a 20-month drought by winning here. Rickie Fowler won here after a 23-month interim from his previous PGA Tour title. Gary Woodland had not won in 3 1/2 years on the tour before winner here as well. Six of the last ten winners at this event have been just three professionals including Matsuyama — so backing a past winner at this price is enticing.

Matsuyama is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head props. Young is not in great form right now — he finished in 70th place last week at Pebble Beach while losing -2.5 strokes to the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Young has lost strokes versus the field in five straight tournaments — and he has lost strokes versus the field in his second shot Approach the Green in five of the last six events that used Shot Link to measure that category.

Young is long Off-the-Tee — he ranked seventh in Driving Distance last season but he is not just not playing well with the other aspects of his game. This is just his third tournament in 2024. Young’s irons tend to be only mediocre — he ranked 92nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season. If Young misses the green, he can get into trouble — he ranked 119th on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He struggles with his blade. In his tie for 33rd place at The Sentry last month, he lost strokes versus the field with his putter. In his last 14 tournaments where ShotLink measured individual strokes (before last week — not sure where he finished in this category), Young has lost strokes versus the field with his putter nine times. Young has made the cut in his previous two trips to TPC Scottsdale — but his best result was his 26th-place finish in 2022. He settled for 64th place last year. The last eight winners here have previously finished in the top ten here — only Matsuyama fits that bill of these two pros. Furthermore, 12 of the last 13 winners here have finished tied for seventh place or better in one of their previous five starts — and it has been ten PGA Tour events since Young finished in seventh place or better back at the John Deere Classic in early July. Take Matsuyama (7135) versus Young (7136) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event has undergone some changes now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs will play on Thursday and Friday but will no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, weather will play a major role this week with the conditions akin to what is expected at British Opens. Rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Heavy winds are expected with gusts up to 30 miles per hour — and Sunday may even see winds approach 60 miles per hour. The temperature will be in the mid-50s.

BEST BET: Viktor Hovland (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7003) versus Xander Schauffele (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:20 PM ET.

Our Best Best to win the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Hovland came into his own last year by improving his chipping and sand play — he won the Memorial and then later the FedEx Championship last summer with three victories overall on the PGA Tour. He comes into this tournament rested after opening the year with a tie for 22nd place at The Sentry. Hovland is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. He ranked fifth on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranked 11th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Hovland ranked 10th on the tour in Proximity to the Hole from approach shots — and the last 13 winners of this tournament have finished in the top 30 in that category for the week with six of the last eight winners finishing in the top-ten for the week. Hovland also ranked fourth on the PGA Tour last year in Par-4 Scoring — and nine of the last ten winners of this event finished first or second in that category for the week. Hovland has a great track record at Pebble Beach. After winning the US Amateur Open here in 2018, he finished tied for 12th place at the US Open the next year which was the top amateur score that week. He has since made the cut in both his appearances at this tournament as a professional including a tie for 13th place last year. Furthermore, the Norwegian’s experience in Europe with the weather not always as pristine should help him prepare for the conditions this week.  

Hovland is linked with Xander Schauffele for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Schauffele has one of the highest floors of all the pros on the tour — but his ceiling seems lower with it being more than 18 months since his last first-place finish. He has three top-10s in each of his three tournaments in 2024 after a tie for ninth place at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. But Schauffele lost -3.0 strokes per round in putting versus the field last week which is not a good sign for this event. In last year’s tournament here, three of the top six finishers finished seventh or betting in Shots-Gained: Putting. Schauffele only ranked 137th in Proximity to the Hole last season — so he may not be as likely to score well at this event as Hovland. Schauffele plays Pebble Beach for just the third time in his career. He finished third in the 2019 US Open here — but he settled for a tie for 66th place at the 2017 Pro-Am and he has only played the difficult Spyglass course once as a professional. Take Hovland (7003) versus Schauffele (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event has undergone some changes now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs will play on Thursday and Friday but will no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, weather will play a major role this week with the conditions akin to what is expected at British Opens. Rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Heavy winds are expected with gusts up to 30 miles per hour — and Sunday may even see winds approach 60 miles per hour. The temperature will be in the mid-50s.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Max Homa is who listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Homa has registered nine straight top-15 finishes after his tie for 13th place last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has gained +6 strokes versus the field per round in ten straight tournaments. Homa loves to play in his home state of California on a course with Poa Annua greens. In his 15 career starts in California, he now has 13 top 20 finishes with four top ten results and four PGA Tour victories. He comes into the event with great form after winning the Redbank Golf Challenge in November. He has finished in the top ten in ten of his last 15 events including eight top ten results in his last 11 tournaments. He enjoyed 12 top-ten finishes in 2023. He began 2024 with a solid tie for 14th place in Hawai’i at The Sentry earlier this month. Homa is reliable on these courses because of his effective ball-striking — he ranked fourth on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and he was 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Homa also ranked 15th on the tour in Par-4 Scoring — and nine of the last ten winners of this tournament finished the week first or second in Par-4 Scoring. Homa has played in this tournament six times — and he has lurked in his last three appearances with a tie for 10th place, a tie for 14th place, and a tie for seventh place. Homa is also one of the best players in bad weather.

Homa is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head props. Morikawa comes off a disappointing tournament at the Farmers Insurance Open where he missed the cut. While normally one of the most reliable players in the approach on the tour, Morikawa was shaky with his irons last week. He got a new coach last fall — so his game may be a work in progress until he demonstrates more consistency. His ball flight may not be a good fit for the wind and rain this week — while his high altitude can generate reliable results in pristine conditions, that trajectory does not play as well in the wind. Morikawa’s putting is the weakness in his game — he ranked 114th in Shots-Gained: Putting last season and the Poa Annua surfaces are considered the trickiest to master since they tend to be the least smooth when compared to Bermuda greens or Bentgrass. Morikawa finished tied for 35th place as an amateur in the 2019 US Open but he has not played Pebble Beach since — and he has never played the course as a professional in February. Take Homa (7139) versus Morikawa (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event has undergone some changes now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs will play on Thursday and Friday but will no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, weather will play a major role this week with the conditions akin to what is expected at British Opens. Rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Heavy winds are expected with gusts up to 30 miles per hour — and Sunday may even see winds approach 60 miles per hour. The temperature will be in the mid-50s.

LONG SHOT: Tommy Fleetwood (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7112) versus Cameron Young (7111) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:55 AM ET.

Our Long Shot bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +3500 at DraftKings. Fleetwood comes into this event in great form after a strong finish to the 2023 season. He has nine top-ten finishes in his last 15 events worldwide including winning the Dubai Invitational and finishing tied for 14th place at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic in his last two starts. Fleetwood is not long Off-the-Tee — but that relative disadvantage is neutralized on this short course. Where he thrives is with his imagination and touch getting up and down to get out of trouble — Fleetwood ranked fifth on the tour last season in Scrambling. He also enjoys taking on the challenge of the weather. He finished in second place in the 2019 British Open and tied for fourth place in the 2022 British Open — so the rain and weather will not throw him off. Fleetwood is one of the best players in the world with many victories on the European Tour — but he is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour. He has played Pebble Beach twice as a pro — he finished tied for 45th place in 2019 before settling for 65th place at the US Open later that year.

Fleetwood is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head props. Young is not a great fit for this short course. He is long Off-the-Tee — he ranked seventh in Driving Distance last season but that edge is neutralized this week. Young’s irons are only mediocre — he ranked 92nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season. If Young misses the green, he can get into trouble — he ranked 119th on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He struggles with his blade. In his tie for 33rd place at The Sentry last month, he lost strokes versus the field with his putter. In his last 14 tournaments where ShotLink measured individual strokes, Young has lost strokes versus the field with his putter nine times. Young has only played Pebble Beach once back in the 2019 US Open when he missed the cut. His Round One will be on the Spyglass Course from which he has never played as a professional — giving Fleetwood another edge. Take Fleetwood (7112) versus Young (7111) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — it ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of 2.1 shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. The South Course was the hardest non-major tournament last year with the average scoring coming in at 73.623.

LONG SHOT: Harris English (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: English (7124) versus Sepp Straka (7123) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced not higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:30 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Harris English who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. English has started the year in great form in the Hawai’i swing events. He followed up a tie for 14th place at The Sentry with a tie for tenth place two weeks ago at the Sony Open. He finished 35 strokes under par in those eight rounds — and he twice registered rounds of 64. English enjoyed six top-13 finishes in his last 13 tournaments in 2023. English’s blade makes him a contender this week — he ranks ninth in the field in putting on Poa Annua greens. English has enjoyed great success at Torrey Pines. He has played this tournament ten times previously with a second place loss in a playoff in 2015. He also finished in eighth place in 2018 and a tie for 14th place in 2017. He also finished tied for third place at the 2021 US Open played at the South Course. English did miss the cut here last year — but he is in much better form now.

English is linked with Sepp Straka in Round One head-to-head props. Straka returns to the PGA Tour after a tie for 12th place at The Sentry three weeks ago. The Austrian has played this event four previous times with three made cuts and peaking with a 13th place finish in 2019. He did not compete in last year’s tournament. This course history is not a good sign for Cantlay this week. Eight of the last nine winners of this tournament had at least six starts at this event. And 13 of the last 15 winners here had previously registered a top-ten finish. Straka is not great fit for the difficult South Course — he ranked 142nd on the tour in Bogey Avoidance on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season. The last ten winners of this tournament all finished in the top ten for the week in Bogey Avoidance. Take English (7124) versus Straka (7123) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — it ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of 2.1 shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. The South Course was the hardest non-major tournament last year with the average scoring coming in at 73.623.

BEST BET: Max Homa (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Homa (7008) versus Patrick Cantlay (7007) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:10 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Max Homa is who listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. Homa won this event last year fulfilling his vast potential at this tournament after previously finishing for a tie for 18th place in 2021 and a tie for ninth place in 2020. He led the field in putting in each of those appearances. Homa loves to play in his home state of California on a course with Poa Annua greens. In his 14 career starts in California, he has 12 top 20 finishes with four top ten results and four PGA Tour victories. He comes into the event with great form after winning the Redbank Golf Challenge in November. He has finished in the top ten in ten of his last 14 events including eight top ten results in his last ten tournaments. He enjoyed 12 top-ten finishes in 2023. He began 2024 with a solid tie for 14th place in Hawai’i at The Sentry earlier this month. Homa is reliable on these courses because of his effective ball-striking — he ranked fourth on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and he was 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranked 19th in Bogey Avoidance as well — and the last ten winners of this event finished the week in the top ten in Bogey Avoidance.

Homa is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay has not played in this tournament in five years — and he has only made the cut once in his previous three appearances at this event. His best showing was a tie for 51st place in 2018 although he finished better than that at the 2021 US Open where he finished tied for 15th place playing exclusively on the South Course. This course history is not a good sign for Cantlay this week. Eight of the last nine winners of this tournament had at least six starts at this event. And 13 of the last 15 winners here had previously registered a top-ten finish. Cantlay started the year with a tie for 12th place at The Sentry — but he was sluggish last week in a tie for 52nd place at The American Express. Take Homa (7008) versus Cantlay (7007) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — it ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of 2.1 shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. The South Course was the hardest non-major tournament last year with the average scoring coming in at 73.623.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Keegan Bradley (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Bradley (7025) versus Sahith Theegala (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:10 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Keegan Bradley who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Bradley will have a chip on his shoulder in this event after blowing a lead on the Sunday of the Sony Open two weeks ago in Hawai’i where settled for a tie for second place after losing in a playoff. Despite that disappointment, Bradley is in very good form right now — he has gained +3.75 strokes versus the the field per round in Approach the Green. He has finished in the top five in three of his last six events — and he has finished in the top 15 in Ball Striking (Stroked Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Strokes Gained: Approach the Green). Bradley registered two victories on the PGA Tour last year. Bradley plays this course well — he has made the cut in all six of his previous trips while ranking tied for 15th or better in Ball Striking each time. He finished tied for fourth place in 2017 before a fifth place in 2018 — and his best finish was last year when he finished in second place.

Bradley is linked with Sahith Theegala for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The Los Angeles native is a trendy choice this week — but until he wins a PGA Tour event in a competitive field, I do not think he is reliable. He choked in the Travelers Championship in June of 2022 in a second place finish. He did break through to win the Fortinet Championship for his first PGA Tour victory last September — but that was against a limited field after the PGA Tour Championship in late August. Theegala finished tie for fourth place here last January — but I still don’t think he is a good fit for this course to consistently achieve results like that. Theegala ranked just 137th last season in Total Driving that balances Driving Distance with accuracy — and in the last five years, each top-five finisher at this tournament ranked 22nd or better in Total Driving for the week. Take Bradley (7025) versus Theegala (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.

BEST BET: Tom Kim (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kim (7149) versus Min Woo Lee (7150) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:30 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win The American Express is on Tom Kim who is listed at +2500 at DraftKings. Kim is a rising star on the PGA Tour — he had nine top-ten finishes last year headlined by a tie for second place at the British Open. He closed 2023 with four top-ten finishes in his last six events after winning the Shriners Open at TPC Summerlin. That was the second time he won at that event just outside Las Vegas demonstrating his comfort at desert courses which should translate this week. Kim settled for a tie for 45th place in his 2024 debut in Hawai’i two weeks ago at The Sentry in an event where his putter let him down. He did finish that tournament with a round of 66 on Sunday — so he should feel pretty good about himself coming into this week. Kim usually putts well on easier surfaces — he ranked 17h on tour for 2022-23 in Putting with Birdies or Better Opportunities. Kim is also an excellent ball-striker — he ranked 10th on the PGA Tour last season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Four of the last five winners of this tournament finished in the top-ten for the week in Approach. It will take a low score to take first place on this easy course — and Kim is adept at putting up a low score. He ranked 16h on the tour last year in Birdies or Better Percentage and ranked 14th in Par  Scoring. After missing the cut in his first appearance here in 2021, the 21-year-old followed that up last year with a tie for sixth place.

Kim is linked with Min Woo Lee in Round One head-to-head prompts. Kim should hold a significant edge over Woo Lee on Thursday since this is Woo Lee’s professional debut at this tournament. Woo Lee did not participate in either of the events in Hawai’i in the last two weeks — and competing in those events tends to correlate with success in tour’s debut in the continental US. Woo Lee has dominated the DP World Tour for years — his future is bright on the PGA Tour. But he is not a great fit for these golf courses relative to the competition. Woo Lee is long off the tee with his driver — but can struggle with his irons. While he did not officially qualify for the PGA Tour rankings last year, if applying his 34 measured rounds, he would have ranked 186th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Woo Lee also would have ranked 82nd on the tour last season with his Scrambling success rate of 62.3% which is just above the PGA Tour average. Getting on-and-off when missing the Green-In-Regulation is essential at this tournament since the pros cannot afford to give up strokes. Of the last 18 golfers to finish in the top-three at this tournament, 17 of them finished in the top-25 for the week in Scrambling. Woo Lee did finish tied for fifth place at the US Open last summer — but that was a low-scoring event where his driver makes a significant difference in a tournament where par is a great score. Take Kim (7149) versus Woo Lee (7150) in Round One head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.

LONG SHOT: Wyndham Clark (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Clark (702) versus Rickie Fowler (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:55 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Wyndham Clark who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Clark enjoyed a breakout season last year by winning the US Open and the Wells Fargo Championship while finishing third at the PGA Tour Championship. His success on longer courses last summer may lead some bettors to forget that his reputation was that low-scoring birdie-fests were considered his strength before last year. Clark ranked 23rd on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage — and he was sixth in Bogey Avoidance so he is prepared to put up a big number. He led the PGA Tour last year in Three-Putt Avoidance last season — and he was 16th in Shots-Gained: Putting from inside 10 feet. He settled for a tie for 29th place at The Sentry two weeks ago — but he nailed an impressive 63 of his 72 Greens-In-Regulation for an 88% mark that is third best on the tour in 2024. Clark has made the cut in four of his five trips at this event with his top finish being a tie for 13th place in 2022 — but he is now playing the best golf of his career.

Clark is linked with Rickie Fowler in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fowler’s strength is with his driver which will not give him a net advantage on these relatively easy courses this week. The second shot approach is critical this week — but Fowler only ranked 66th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season. His putting is the weakest part of his game as well — he ranked 139th in Shots-Gained: Putting for the 2022-23 season. Fowler has missed the cut in four of his six previous trips here with only one top-20 finish back in 2020 when he finished tied for 10th place. Fowler is also not in good form right now coming off his 56th-place finish of the 59 golfers at The Sentry in that no-cut event. Take Clark (7025) versus Fowler (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.

TOP OVERLAY BET: J.T. Poston (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Poston (7019) versus Tony Finau (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:40 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on J.T. Poston who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Poston remains undervalued due to his significant improvement in the last six months with his iron play last summer. While he ranked 37th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 13th in the Greens-In-Regulation for the 2022-23 season, he was at his best since July where he registered 24th place or better finishes in seven of his nine tournaments. He has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in nine of his last ten tournaments. He came out firing two weeks ago with his tie for fifth place at The Sentry. He followed that up last week with a tie for sixth place at the PGA Sony Open, Poston now has seven top-ten finishes in his last 11 events — and he has three top-six results in his last four tournaments. His game is a great fit for this tournament since he has always been quite good with his short game. Successful putting is essential this week in a tournament that Jon Rahm quipped was a “putting contest” (before winning the event last year). Poston ranked 24th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he ranked third in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting last week. Poston also ranked ninth in Scrambling last season — so he if does miss the green in regulation, he should still avoid bogeys. Poston has posted two top-seven results at this tournament including a tie for sixth place last year.

Poston is linked with Tony Finau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Finau is not in good form right now coming off a tie for 38th place of the 59 golfers at The Sentry in that no-cut event. He ranks 103rd in Shots-Gained: Total in his last 36 rounds of play. He is also not a great fit for this low-scoring tournament since he can struggle with his blade — he ranked 125th on the PGA Tour last season in Shots-Gained: Putting. In his six previous trips to this tournament, he finished in the top-ten only once. Take Poston (7019) versus Finau (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.87 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 3 1/2 inches. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens. 



TOP OVERLAY BET: J.T. Poston (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Poston (7133) versus Eric Cole (7134) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 5:20 PM ET.

Poston demonstrated significant improvement with his iron play last summer. While he ranked 37th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 13th in the Greens-In-Regulation for the 2022-23 season, he was at his best since July where he registered 24th place or better finishes in seven of his nine tournaments. He came out firing last week as well with his tie for with play at The Sentry — his sixth top-seven result in his last ten tournaments. He finished tied for second place at the 3M Open — and now he plays on a course that is a great fit for his skill set. Successful putting is essential this week. From 2010 through 2022 (I have not seen the updated numbers after last year), the winner of the Sony Open gained 48.6% of their shots versus the field with their putter — the highest net percentage of all events on the PGA during that span. Poston ranks top-five in the field this week in putting. This is his seventh visit to Wai’alae — and while his top finish was tied for 20th place, his summer improvement gives him the opportunity to make a big move this week.

Poston is linked with Eric Cole in Round One head-to-head props. Cole was last season’s Rookie of the Year — but he has an experience deficit on this course with it being just his second trip. He settled for 61st place last year. No one was hotter than Cole in the fall with four top-four finishes in his five starts — and he was tied for fifth place at The Sentry last week. But the weakness in his game is with his driver. While his short length will not be much of an issue this week, his accuracy could be given the tree-lined fairways and positional doglegs. Cole ranked 158th in the Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 163rd in Driver Accuracy in 2022-23. The experience edge Poston enjoys at this course should be most evident on Thursday. Take Poston (7133) versus Cole (7134) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.87 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 3 1/2 inches. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens.

BEST BET: Russell Henley (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Henley (7011) versus Corey Conners (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:20 PM ET.

Henley should have a chip on his shoulder this week after settling for just a tie for 52nd place last week in Maui at The Sentry. Nine of the last 11 winners of this event played the previous week in Hawai’i — so there is a nice precedent for the professionals finding their form for the second week of the Aloha swing portion of the PGA Tour. While last week’s course was long and straight, the doglegs associated with this positional course set up much better for Henley’s game. He is on the record for loving this course — and he has putted well here in the past while seeming to prefer the Bermuda Greens surface. Henley won this tournament in 2013 before losing in a playoff here in 2022. His average score in his last 12 rounds is 65.92. Henley closed out 2023 in great form with six straight top-14 finishes including three top-8 results. He finished in second place at the Wyndham Championship in August. He also finished tied for fourth place at the Masters. Henley is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour which explains why he does well on this track which is considered a second-shot course. Henley ranked 17th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranked 18th last season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he ranked 13th in Approach from 100-125 yards which will be essential at the Wai’alae Country Club.

Henley is linked with Corey Conners in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. At first glance, Conners has an intriguing profile for this course given his elite play with his short and middle irons. He has made the cut all five tops he has played here with his tie for third place in 2019 being his best effort. But the concern about Conners here is that his subpar short game puts a ceiling on his potential for success at this event. His 18-under score in 2019 was his only top-ten finish at this tournament. Successful putting is essential this week. From 2010 through 2022 (I have not seen the updated numbers after last year), the winner of the Sony Open gained 48.6% of their shots versus the field with their putter — the highest net percentage of all events on the PGA during that span. That is an accomplishment that Conners is not likely ever to achieve. He ranked 128th in Shots-Gained: Putting for the 2022-23 season — and he ranked 54th of the 59 competitors in putting last week. The margins are thinner at this shorter course regarding mistakes made with chipping and in the sand since the Greens-In-Regulation numbers are below the tour average. Conners ranks just 135th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 146th in Scrambling. Take Henley (7011) versus Conners (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.87 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 3 1/2 inches. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens. 



LONG SHOT: Harris English (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: English (7030) versus Hideki Matsuyama (7029) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1 PM ET.

English enjoyed six top-13 finishes in his last 13 tournaments in 2023 — and he started 2024 with a solid tie for 14th place last week at The Sentry. He went into Round Four on Sunday only three shots off the lead before taking a step back. He did still finish third in the field last week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he was 10th in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week. English’s blade makes him a contender this week. Successful putting is essential this week. From 2010 through 2022 (I have not seen the updated numbers after last year), the winner of the Sony Open gained 48.6% of their shots versus the field with their putter — the highest net percentage of all events on the PGA during that span. English ranked 16th on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has enjoyed great success at similar positional courses with a win at TPC Southwind and El Camaleon — and he also has a win in Hawai’i at The Sentry in 2021. This is his 12th visit to Wai’alae where he has made the cut 10 times with three top 10 finishes including two top fours.

English is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Matsuyama won this event in 2022 and has made the cut in all seven of his trips — but it is difficult to trust him given his recent form. He did finish better than 13th place in his final 15 tournaments in 2023 — and he opened 2024 last week with a 58th place at The Sentry. Matsuyama’s putter has usually been the weakest part of his game — he ranked 119th in Shots-Gained: Putting last season. But his work with his driver has taken a step back now as well. He ranked 81st on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 100th in Driver Accuracy. Take English (7030) versus Matsuyama (7029) in Tournament Matchup head-to-had props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2023-24 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. In practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough has grown a 1/4 of an inch since last year up to 2 1/2 inches. Winds of up to 20 miles per hour are expected for at least the first three days. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 59 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings.

LONG SHOT: Sungjae Im (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Im (7030) versus Jordan Spieth (7029) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 3:35 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Im slumped for much of 2023 — but he regained his form in the summer and has finished no worse than 24th place in his last six PGA Tour events. He also has five top-15 finishes in his last six tournaments worldwide. His last official event was in October when he finished tied for 12th place at the ZOZO Championship. Im ranked 5th in Par-5 Scoring last season — so he can take advantage of the four Par-5s on this track. He has finished tied for 5th place, tied for 8th place, and tied for 13th place in his previous three stops at Kapalua — and his average score is 67.67. Im is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Spieth won this event in 2016 — but his worst two finishes in his six trips were in the last two years where he settled for a tie for 21st place and a tie for 13th place despite the limited fields. Spieth’s proficiency with his irons has declined the last two years — he is losing -2.75 strokes per round versus the field with his irons over that span. Spieth ranked 71st in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green last season which is not a good sign when playing a course where the second shot is considered the most important. Take Im (7030) versus Spieth (7029) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2023-24 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. In practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough has grown a 1/4 of an inch since last year up to 2 1/2 inches. Winds of up to 20 miles per hour are expected for at least the first three days. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 59 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings.

BEST BET: Xander Schauffele (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rahm (7012) versus Ludvig Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:45 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win The Sentry is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. Schauffele comes into 2024 anxious to earn his first PGA Tour victory in almost 18 months. He has seven wins on the PGA Tour — and he won the 2022 Olympics — so he is definitively one of the best players in the world. He closed out the 2022-23 season in great form by following up a tie for 8th place at the BMW Championship with a second-place finish at the Tour Championship (while tying for first place that week before taking into account the staggered scoring). Schauffele ranked 9th last season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranked 3rd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which should help him this week since the second shot is considered the most important at this venue. He also ranked 5th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Putting. The biggest weakness to his game is his length off the tee — but that is not considered a liability on this course despite the length of nearly 7600 yards. His course history demonstrates this — he won this event in 2019 and has three top-fives here overall including a tie or second place in 2020. He may have a chip on his shoulder this week after having to withdraw from this tournament last year — and that was his only withdrawal in his professional career. He has an average score of 66 in his last four Sundays at this tournament — so he should close well if he is in the mix late. Schauffele is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchups. The 24-year-old Swede seems poised for a breakout season — but when priced at +1400 to win this tournament, he is overvalued relative to the elite players on the tour who are already firmly established. Aberg is a debutante at this event — so Schauffele has a big edge in those regards. He won the RSM Classic in November but benefitted from ranking tied for 4th that week in putting. That performance was a bit of an overachievement when considering he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Putting for the 2022-23 season. Aberg’s strength is with his driver — he led the PGA Tour in Total Driving last year. But he is still a work in progress with his irons and particularly his wedges. Aberg ranked 107th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season — and he was 144th on the Tour in his approach from 100 to 125 yards which is where he will probably be spending much of his time given his length off the tee. Take Schauffele (7012) versus Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2023-24 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. In practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough has grown a 1/4 of an inch since last year up to 2 1/2 inches. Winds of up to 20 miles per hour are expected for at least the first three days. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 59 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7006) versus Viktor Hovland (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:45 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa slumped through much of the 2022-23 season — but he came on near the end of the summer with a 2nd place at the Rocket Mortgage in July before a 6th place finish in aggregate score at the Tour Championship in Atlanta while posting the fourth best raw score that week. He followed that up by winning the Zozo Championship in October before finishing in 7th place at the Hero World Challenge a month ago. Morikawa is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. He ranked 4th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. It is his putting that can hold back his game — and the slower greens will help to neutralize that weakness in his game. He is a two-game champion at the majors. He has something to prove at this event after blowing a six-stroke lead on Sunday last year to Jon Rahm (who will not be competing since his leaving for the LIV Tour last month). Morikawa has played this quite well in his career with a tie for 5th place and two ties for 7th place. Morikawa is linked with Viktor Hovland in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hovland won us a lot of money last year including his title at the PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta in August — but this course is not a great fit for his game. He tends to struggle when putting on Bermuda greens. Scrambling skills are at a premium at this course given the length — and that had been one of his biggest weaknesses in his game before seemingly making his chipping and working out of the sand another strength. We will see if that continues in 2024 — but his course history has not been great. He has not finished higher than 18th place in his three previous trips to Kapulua — and his tie for 30th and 31st places previously are even worse when considering the smaller fields for those events before this expanded group this year. Take Morikawa (7006) versus Hovland (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick 419 Bermuda grass of up to 2 1/2 inches punishing shots that miss the fairway. The pros will encounter 74 sand bunkers and water that impacts six of the holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).

TOP OVERLAY BET: Viktor Hovland to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (+1000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7130) versus Scottie Scheffler (7129) in Round One head-to-head props(and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:00 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings to win the week (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we want the prop for the best raw score this week). After Hovland followed up his Round Three of 65 with a Round Four of 61 with that nine-under round bolstered by his shooting a sensational 28 on the back nine — under pressure — there is no way I am jumping off the Hovland bandwagon after cashing that 16-1 winning ticket. And I much prefer his prop to win without the starting score than his odds at +500 to win the Tour Championship which takes into account his 8-under starting score. While I have skepticism about Scottie Scheffler (discussed below), I fully expect him to be in the mix on Sunday given his remarkable consistency this year — but if we have faith in Hovland, then his overtaking Scheffler requires him to outshoot him for the week anyways. I have been bullish on Hovland since he settled for second place at the PGA Championship. Hovland has been remarkably consistent this season with 17 top-25 finishes in his last 22 events — and he has eight top-25s in his last nine tournaments. Hovland settled for a tie for 13th place at the British Open last month. He looks poised to take the next step in his career — and a Tour Championship would fit the bill. He finished tied for seventh place at the Masters after sharing the first-round lead. He was in a position to win the PGA Championship before a bad chip late in the final round cost him the title against Brooks Koepka as he settled for a tie for second place. Afterward, he had the look and the sound of a professional determined to do what was necessary to overcome his final obstacle. He was definitely not happy with coming close. Two weeks later, he won the difficult Memorial Championship in a playoff. He is getting better in clutch moments — and he adjusted his tactics that week by being less aggressive while focusing more on shot shaping to put himself in a better position to succeed. He did settle for 19th place at the US Open — his worst showing at a major championship this year. His weakness is Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 105th on the PGA Tour — although that represents an improvement in an area to which he has dedicated much practice time (and he ranked 128th in that metric going into his last tournament at the British Open). He is above average Around-the-Green — statistically — this summer which accounts for his moving up the ranking. He clearly is playing with more confidence with his chipping as evidenced by a couple of clutch shots on Sunday last week. He was already one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranks sixth on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The last seven winners at East Lake have finished in the top-seven for the week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Overall, Hovland ranks third in the field by gaining +2.1 shots per round versus the field — and he is arguably the hottest golfer in the field this week. This is his fourth trip to East Lake where he finished in fourth place two years ago.

Hovland is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. With Scheffler enjoying a two-shot lead against Hovland along with a three-shot lead against Rory McIlroy, and at least a six-shot lead against most of the field, he will likely play the course more conservatively than his rivals who need to be aggressive in making up strokes given this format. Scheffler is the best ball-striker in the world — but his putter continues to let him down. He looked crestfallen on Sunday when he was blowing his lead against Hovland by missing makeable putt after putt. He ranks 145th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. And this is keeping him from winning as he has not won a tournament despite those rankings since THE Players Championship in March. Even worse, he is in a relative slump at this point of the season by ranking 18th in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his 12 rounds and 27th in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his 18 rounds before last week. Take Hovland (7130) versus Scheffler (7129) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick 419 Bermuda grass of up to 2 1/2 inches punishing shots that miss the fairway. The pros will encounter 74 sand bunkers and water that impacts six of the holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).

BEST BET: Xander Schauffele to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we want the prop for best raw score this week) (+900 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Schauffele (7115) versus Tom Kim (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:40 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to post the lowest score this week (while not necessarily winning the Tour Championship that takes into account the staggered scoring to reward the performances that produce the FedEx standings coming into the week) is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +900 odds at DraftKings to win the event “without accounting for the starting score”. Schauffele comes into the week with a starting score of 3-under par — and I love taking lurkers like him since he can post a big number this week while still not feeling the pressure to win the Tour Championship on Sunday since he is starting seven strokes behind Scheffler. This is precisely what Schauffele did in 2020 when he posted the lowest score for the week despite it not being enough to win the tournament given the staggered scoring. Schauffele plays great at East Lake where he has posted five top-five finishes (gross score) along with a tie for seventh pale in his last six trips. His average score in those last 24 rounds is 67.25. Furthermore, he leads the field by gaining +1.81 strokes per round in his 24 rounds at East Lake — and that is an elite number that compares favorably with all the top-level Horse for Course data. Schauffele has a 2nd, 1st, 3rd, and 6th place finish in the last four Tour Championships for the week — and he won here in 2017 before FedEx adopted their staggered scoring system. He comes into the week in great form after a tie for eighth place last week at the PGA BMW Championship — his best finish in his last eight tournaments since a second-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship in early May.

Schauffele is linked with Tom Kim for Round One head-to-head props. I like Kim and strongly suspect that I will be investing in this year’s second-place finisher at the British Open — but I don’t like this matchup for the 21-year-old. This is his first professional appearance at the Tour Championship at East Lake — so he is at a significant disadvantage when it comes to course experience. The weakness of his game is when he misses the green in his approach — he ranks just 89th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Kim’s strength is not length with his driver either which will not help him with this longer course. He ranks 57th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. The last seven winners at East Lake finished the week ranking seventh or better Off-the-Tee. Kim also tends to be a slow starter as he ranks just 65th in Round One scoring average versus the field. Now he is lined with a powerful Horse for the Course in Schauffele who has shot under par in all six of his previous trips to East Lake. Schauffele has averaged three-under par 67 in those six appearances. He also ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Round One scoring. Take Schauffele (7115) versus Kim (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick 419 Bermuda grass of up to 2 1/2 inches punishing shots that miss the fairway. The pros will encounter 74 sand bunkers and water that impacts six of the holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).

LONG SHOT: Sungjae Im to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Im (7035) versus Tom Kim (7036) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:30 PM ET.

Our Long Shot to win this event is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings to win the week (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we want the prop for best raw score this week). Im starts the week with a staggered score of two-under-par — — and I love taking lurkers like him since he can post a big number this week while still not feeling the pressure to win the Tour Championship on Sunday since he is starting seven strokes behind Scheffler. Im started with a score of four-under last year at this tournament -- and he raced all the way back to second place before losing the Tour Championship (and gross score) on the 18th hole when Rory McIlroy birdied the hole. Im is playing his best golf of the year with three straight top-14s including a tie for sixth place at FedEx St. Jude Championship before his solo seventh place at the BMW Championship last week. He has gained over 11 strokes versus the field in Ball-Striking the last two weeks. He gained more than seven strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green over the weekend last week. He prefers courses with Bermuda grass — and his game is a great fit for East Lake. He ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and the last seven winners here have finished seventh or better for the week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee.

Im is linked with Tom Kim for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. I like Kim and strongly suspect that I will be investing in this year’s second-place finisher at the British Open — but I don’t like this matchup for the 21-year-old. This is his first professional appearance at the Tour Championship at East Lake — so he is at a significant disadvantage when it comes to course experience. The weakness of his game is when he misses the green in his approach — he ranks just 89th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Kim’s strength is not length with his driver either which will not help him with this longer course. He ranks 57th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. The last seven winners at East Lake finished the week ranking seventh or better Off-the-Tee, as mentioned above defending Im who will be playing at East Lake for the fifth time as a professional. Take Im (7035) versus Kim (7036) in Tournament Match head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship in the south side of Chicago. The North Course at the Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois hosts this event this year. This course was the site of the 2003 US Open as well as the BMW Championship in 2020. It’s a difficult course well worthy of a US Open this century. In 2020, this event was the fourth-hardest course on the PGA Tour that season — and the 71.85 average score was the second hardest Par 70 that year. Once again, this will be a Par 70 event with the course consisting of 7366 yards. The two Par 5s are longer than 600 yards and eight of the 12 Par 4s are at least 440 yards. Water is in play in eight of the 18 holes. The 50 professionals will contend with narrow fairways lined by trees, bluegrass rough of up to four inches, and 91 sand bunkers on the course. The greens are made of Bentgrass with a Poa Annua blend that averages a small 5238 square feet and measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. There are no cuts in the FedEx playoffs. The top 32 in the FedEx standings after this tournament will advance to Atlanta for the Tour Championship.

BEST BET: Jon Rahm (+850 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rahm (7146) versus Scottie Scheffler (7145) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:35 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA BMW Championship is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +850 odds at DraftKings. While I usually think odds this low represent underlay value, when there are only 50 golfers in the field, the relative value of these top-level golfers changes. The FedEx playoffs are a three-week marathon — but it’s time for the true contenders to raise their level of play since the FedEx standings after this week generate the staggered scoring lead that rewards those at the top of the standings. Despite his tie for 37th place at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, Rahm remains the leader in the FedEx standings — so he is in the driver’s seat to go into East Lake next week with the lowest initial score. Rahm started slow last week with an opening round of 73 — but he rebounded with 67-67-68 in his next three rounds for an 8 under par for the final three days. He was uncharacteristically bad Off-the-Tee on that Thursday as the -3.26 shots he lost Off-the-Tee was the worst effort of his career. That was just an outlier opening round of what will be 12 important rounds for Rahm to re-classify himself as the number one player in the world — a position he held after winning the Masters in April which was his fourth first-place finish this season. Rahm is one of the best golfers in the world on difficult courses that reward length. He ranks 18th in Driving Distance — and while he falls to 102nd in Driver Accuracy, that metric needs to be considered within the context that he is willing to let it rip when missing the fairway does not offer a commensurate penalty relative to the gain in distance. But Rahm can settle for the short stuff in the fairway if the hole demands that discipline. He ranks third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Rahm probably has the best mental game on the tour. He won the BMW Championship on this course in 2020 -- and he did despite an opening round of 74. Rahm struggled on the Thursday of the Masters this year before simply overwhelming the field the rest of the way. In winning this tournament in 2020, he shot a course-record 64 on that Sunday. And he adapted midway through the round by abandoning his draw and settling for fairways. Rahm ranks third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and he ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking measuring Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which will be critical this week given the narrow fairways along with the bunker and water hazards before reaching the small greens. Rahm has also won a US Open — so he is well-versed in the challenge facing the pros this week. And I think he will be particularly focused on Day One given his slow start last week as well as his slow start at this event in 2020.

Rahm is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. The analytics love Scheffler — he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Total, Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But he has not won a tournament despite those rankings since THE Players Championship in March. Even worse, he is in a relative slump at this point of the season by ranking 18th in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his 12 rounds and 27th in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his 18 rounds. But beyond that loss in form, Scheffler’s putter is holding him back. At the FedEx St. Jude last week, he lost -44.2 strokes versus the field just in his Saturday Round Three. He ranks 146th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. Scheffler settled for 20th place when he played in this tournament at Olympia Fields in 2020. Take Rahm (7146) versus Scheffler (7145) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Rahm at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship in the south side of Chicago. The North Course at the Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois hosts this event this year. This course was the site of the 2003 US Open as well as the BMW Championship in 2020. It’s a difficult course well worthy of a US Open this century. In 2020, this event was the fourth-hardest course on the PGA Tour that season — and the 71.85 average score was the second hardest Par 70 that year. Once again, this will be a Par 70 event with the course consisting of 7366 yards. The two Par 5s are longer than 600 yards and eight of the 12 Par 4s are at least 440 yards. Water is in play in eight of the 18 holes. The 50 professionals will contend with narrow fairways lined by trees, bluegrass rough of up to four inches, and 91 sand bunkers on the course. The greens are made of Bentgrass with a Poa Annua blend that averages a small 5238 square feet and measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. There are no cuts in the FedEx playoffs. The top 32 in the FedEx standings after this tournament will advance to Atlanta for the Tour Championship.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Viktor Hovland (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7144) versus Wyndham Clark (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Hovland was our Best Bet last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship — and after a slow start 2 over par on Day One, he shot 12 under par the rest of the way for a tie for 13th place. Beginning the week ranked seventh in the FedEx standings, winning this event would put him in a realistic position to win the Tour Championship next week at East Lake. Hovland has been remarkably consistent this season with 16 top-25 finishes in his last 21 events — and he has seven top-25s in his last eight tournaments. Hovland settled for a tie for 13th place at the British Open last month. He still looks poised to take the next step in his career — and a Tour Championship would fit the bill. He finished tied for seventh place at the Masters after sharing the first-round lead. He was in a position to win the PGA Championship before a bad chip late in the final round cost him the title against Brooks Koepka as he settled for a tie for second place. Afterward, he had the look and the sound of a professional determined to do what was necessary to overcome his final obstacle. He was definitely not happy with coming close. Two weeks later, he won the difficult Memorial Championship in a playoff. He is getting better in clutch moments — and he adjusted his tactics that week by being less aggressive while focusing more on shot shaping to put himself in a better position to succeed. He did settle for 19th place at the US Open — his worst showing at a major championship this year. His weakness is Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 112th on the PGA Tour — although that represents an improvement in an area to which he has dedicated much practice time (and he ranked 128th in that metric going into his last tournament at the British Open). He is one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranks eighth on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and ninth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. His triumph at the Memorial represents a success at a course that presents a similar challenge as this one. He finished tied for 40th place at this tournament in 2020 — but he is a much more polished professional now who will benefit from the course experience.

Hovland is linked with Wyndham Clark in Round One head-to-head props. We were on Clark last week for the FedEx St. Jude Championship — and he was a disappointment by finishing 66th of 70 golfers by shooting four over par. I thought he would regain his good form after taking a step back after the hangover of winning the US Open — but Clark now looks like he has taken his foot off the accelerator for the rest of this season. He has not finished better than 25th place in his last four tournaments since winning the US Open. In his last 12 rounds, he ranks 43rd in the field in Shots-Gained: Total — and in his last eight rounds, he ranks 45th in Shots-Gained: Total. This is a difficult course to rediscover good form. He ranks 150th in Driving Accuracy which is not a great attribute for this course — especially when playing at Olympia Fields for the first time in his professional career. Take Hovland (7144) versus Clark (7143) on Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship in the south side of Chicago. The North Course at the Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois hosts this event this year. This course was the site of the 2003 US Open as well as the BMW Championship in 2020. It’s a difficult course well worthy of a US Open this century. In 2020, this event was the fourth-hardest course on the PGA Tour that season — and the 71.85 average score was the second hardest Par 70 that year. Once again, this will be a Par 70 event with the course consisting of 7366 yards. The two Par 5s are longer than 600 yards and eight of the 12 Par 4s are at least 440 yards. Water is in play in eight of the 18 holes. The 50 professionals will contend with narrow fairways lined by trees, bluegrass rough of up to four inches, and 91 sand bunkers on the course. The greens are made of Bentgrass with a Poa Annua blend that averages a small 5238 square feet and measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. There are no cuts in the FedEx playoffs. The top 32 in the FedEx standings after this tournament will advance to Atlanta for the Tour Championship.

LONG SHOT: Corey Conners (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7135) versus Tyrrell Hatton (7136) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:40 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Corey Conners who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Conners comes off a tie for sixth place at the FedEx St. Jude Championship with a Sunday round of 65. That result was his fourth top-20 result in his last six tournaments. Conners won the Valero Open earlier this year — and his 12th place at the PGA Championship at Oaks Hill represents a good result on a difficult course similar to the challenge at Olympia Fields this week. He is a great fit for what this week will have in store for the 50 professionals because of his ball-striking. He ranks 16th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 14th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 20th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But the strange thing for Conners last week was that he was below average for the week with his irons but was above average with his putter. Conners has gained shots versus the field in Shots-Gained: Putting in three straight tournaments. If Conners can keep his putting form while regaining his excellent touch with his irons, he could make a run this week. He ranks 25th in the FedEx standings so he cannot be complacent — but he would be rewarded with a great finish this week.

Conners is linked with Tyrrell Hatton in Round One head-to-head props. Hatton comes off a disappointing tie for 43rd place last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he struggled with his wedges and his putter. Hatton has had a great season — particularly with his irons. But at a certain point, the concern grows about him always being the proverbial bridesmaid. He has not won a tournament in 2 1/2 years. He has not finished in the top ten in a major championship in 15 straight events — and while this event is not technically a major, it suggests he takes a step back when playing with the elite fields. He only has one top-ten in the FedEx Playoffs — and that was back in 2020. He ranks 90th in Driving Accuracy which is a bad sign that he can get in trouble Off-the-Tee this week. Take Conners (7135) versus Hatton (7136) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the second straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top-ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. The Bermuda grass rough has grown out another half inch from last year’s tournament to top off at three inches this week. The Bermuda greens average only 4500 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. For the first time, there will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Wyndham Clark (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Clark (7037) versus Brian Harmon (7038) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:55 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the best odds relative to the odds is on Wyndham Clark who is listed at +2800 to win at DraftKings. Clark has taken the next step in his development by winning twice on the PGA Tour this season including capturing his first US Open in June. He will play in his first Tour Championship in two weeks — and he fits the profile of a pro who will be extra-motivated to put up a big score this week to rise in the FedEx rankings where he currently ranks fifth. While veterans like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy are looking to peak in Atlanta in two more weeks for that final event of the year, Clark will be amped to sake his claim now. The final event at East Lake uses a staggered scoring system to reward the standings going into the week. Clark was solid in his three tournaments since winning the US Open with his tie for 33rd place at the British Open in his last start being his worst finish. He is a balanced golfer who is proficient with all the clubs in his bag after improving with his approach play this year. He has gained +0.55 shots per round versus the field in Approach-the-Green this season. Clark’s natural fade should help at TPC Southwind as well — he plays with a fade in shots 75% with his long game. Seven of the 14 Par 4 or 5s at this course dog-leg left-to-right — and a fade avoids the water on two of these holes. Six of the last seven winners at TPC Southwind have the left-to-right fade in common as they averaged hitting fades in 68% of their shots off-the-tee. He has experience at this course where he finished tied for 28th place last year.

Clark is linked with Brian Harmon for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Harmon returns to action for the first time since his breakthrough win at the British Open last month. It is the rare golfer who I like to endorse coming off a win on the tour — and that is compound when that triumph is the first major of a pro’s career. It would be more than understandable that Harmon has been celebrating his accomplishment — and letting up just a little bit in his preparation for these final three tournaments for the 2022-23 season. I have endorsed Harmon many times in the past — but I don’t like this spot for him this week given those circumstances. And while the lefty ranks on the tour in Driving Accuracy, he is not elite with his irons. Harmon ranks 98th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which is a concern with the small greens this week. His iron play drags down his Tee-to-Green numbers as well as he ranks 58th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Nine of the last 11 winners at TPC Southwind led the field for the week in that metric. Clark, on the other hand, ranks 17th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Harmon finished third at this event last year — and he has a sixth-place finish at TPC Southwind under his belt as well. But he has also missed the cut in three of his six trips to this golf course as a pro. take Clark (7037) versus Harmon (7038) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the second straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top-ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on four of the holes with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. The Bermuda grass rough has grown out another half inch from last year’s tournament to top off at three inches this week. The Bermuda greens average only 4500 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. For the first time, there will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week.

BEST BET: Viktor Hovland (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7012) versus Xander Schauffele (7011) in Tournament  Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 10:10 AM ET.

Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this tournament is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Hovland was our Top Overlay Bet for the British Open but settled for a tie for 13th place in that tournament last month. He still looks poised to take the next step in his career — and a Tour Championship would fit the bill. He finished tied for seventh place at the Masters after sharing the first-round lead. He was in a position to win the PGA Championship before a bad chip late in the final round cost him the title against Brooks Koepka as he settled for a tie for second place. Afterward, he had the look and the sound of a professional determined to do what was necessary to overcome his final obstacle. He was definitely not happy with coming close. Two weeks later, he won the difficult Memorial Championship in a playoff. He is getting better in clutch moments — and he adjusted his tactics that week by being less aggressive while focusing more on shot shaping to put himself in a better position to succeed. He did settle for 19th place at the US Open — his worst showing at a major championship this year. His weakness is Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 112th on the PGA Tour — although that represents an improvement in an area to which he has dedicated much practice time (and he ranked 128th in that metric going into his last tournament at the British Open). Hovland is one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranks seventh on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and ninth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Good opening shots are essential this week given the water and fairway bunkers challenging the professionals on what are otherwise narrow fairways. With the small greens, getting in trouble in the rough or sand on the approach probably takes birdies out of play — and it puts bogeys into play. This course is a good fit for Hovland as well since he tends to fade his shots left-to-right. Seven of the 14 Par 4 or 5s at this course dog-leg left-to-right — and a fade avoids the water on two of these holes. Six of the last seven winners at TPC Southwind have the left-to-right fade in common as they averaged hitting fades in 68% of their shots off-the-tee. He has made the cut in all three of his trips to this golf course including finishing in 20th place here last year.

Hovland is linked with Xander Schauffele in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Schauffele has been solid — but not spectacular this summer. He last played at the British Open where he settled for a tie for 17th place. His only top-ten finish in his last six tournaments was at the US Open where he finished tied for tenth. He is not the most accurate professional with his driver which could get him into trouble this week. He ranks 106th on the tour in Driving Accuracy — and that contributes to him ranking just 43rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Schauffele has made the cut in all five of his professional events at TPC Southwind — but he has finished no better than 27th place four times. Take Hovland (7012) versus Schauffle (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the second straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top-ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. The Bermuda grass rough has grown out another half inch from last year’s tournament to top off at three inches this week. The Bermuda greens average only 4500 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. For the first time, there will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week.

LONG SHOT: Sam Burns (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7029) versus Max Homa (7030) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:30 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer who is listed outside the top-ten favorites is Sam Burns who is priced at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Burns missed the cut at the British Open — but he has had success in elite fields at non-majors. He won the WGC Match Play event earlier this year in a stacked field. He has won five times on the PGA Tour since mid-2021 — and four of those events featured Bermuda greens. Burns is one of the best putters in the world — and he ranks sixth on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Putting. Bermuda is his preferred putting surface. He ranks third in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting on firm and fast surfaces this season. He comes off a good showing last week at the PGA Wyndham Championship where he finished tied for 14th place after shooting 65 and 67 over the weekend. For the fourth straight tournament, he finished top-20 in the field last week in both Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Putting (on those Bermuda greens). Burns has been up-and-down this year but he does have four top-20 finishes in his last seven tournaments as well as ten top-20s in his last twenty events. Six of those top-20 results were on short positional courses like this one. The Shreveport native thrives when playing in the Deep South as well. In his 61 professional starts in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee, he has 14 top-ten finishes along with six victories. He lost in a playoff at TPC Southwind in 2021 before a tie for 20th place last year. He has shot 67 or better in five of his eight rounds at this golf course. Lastly, Burns will have the additional motivation to play well this week to build his case to represent the United States on the Ryder Cup team in the fall.

Burns is linked with Max Homa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Homa was red hot on the west coast swing of the PGA Tour in the winter — but he cooled off when the tour turned east. He is in better form lately with three straight top-21 finishes including a tie for tenth place at the British Open last month. He ranks fourth in the FedEx standings mostly due to his early work out west this season. But he is not a good fit for this golf course. In his six previous trips to Memphis to play TPC Southland, he has not finished better than 42nd place despite varying sizes and strengths of the field. Part of the problem likely stems from Homa preferring to put on Poa Annua greens that are featured on the west coast. Another concern is that he is not the most accurate pro with his driver — he ranks 78th on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy which contributes to his ranking only 67th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. This is the wrong course to get in trouble off-the-tee given the narrow fairways and hazards. Take Burns (7029) versus Homa (7030) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place this week with the Wyndham Classic being hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.263 which was a nine-year high. Six of the last seven winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet.

LONG SHOT: Adam Hadwin (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hadwin (7033) versus Patrick Rodgers (7034) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:55 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Adam Hadwin who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Hadwin has missed the cut in his last two events including the 3M Open last week — but he loves Donald Ross-designed courses. He ranks 11th in the field this week by averaging +1.16 shots-gained per round at Ross-designed courses since 2018 (minimum 16 rounds). Despite his recent slump, he still ranks 37th in the FedEx standings — so he is safe to make the playoffs starting next week but remains motivated to play well and move up the standings. He finished in a tie for second place at Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit a month ago which is also a Ross-designed course. He also finished tied for 12th place at the RBC Canadian Open in June which is a short positional course like this one. Hadwin is one of seven golfers in the field this week who ranks in the top 50 in the field in Driving Accuracy, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and weighted Putting. The last two winners at this tournament, Kevin Kisner and Tom Kim, ranked in the top 50 in the field in those three categories entering the week. He has made the cut in three of his four previous appearances at the Sedgefield County Club including a tenth place in his last trip in 2021.

Hadwin is linked with Patrick Rodgers in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Rodgers comes off a tie for 37th place at the 3M Open — but he has missed the cut in three of his last five tournaments. He has also missed the cut in 10 of his 21 events this year. He is not a good fit for this course that rewards accuracy. Rodgers ranks 127th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green for the 2022-23 season. The last seven winners at the Sedgefield County Club finished 12th or better for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He has made the cut at this tournament in five of his seven previous appearances — but he has never finished better than 24th place. Take Hadwin (7033) versus Rodgers (7034) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place this week with the Wyndham Classic being hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.263 which was a nine-year high. Six of the last seven winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Denny McCarthy (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: McCarthy (7146) versus Sungjae Im (7145) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:10 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Denny McCarthy who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. McCarthy returns to action since missing the cut across the pond at the British Open two weeks ago — but he had four straight top-20 finishes before that with three of those results being a top-seven or better headlined by his solo second place at the Memorial Tournament in June. He has five top-20 finishes in his last seven events. He is the epitome of the undervalued proposition this week since he lead the field in his last 36 rounds by averaging +1.53 strokes-gained versus the field per round — and he ranks second in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his last 100 rounds. What makes McCarthy so dangerous this week is how good he is with his putter. He ranks third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting - and he leads the field when putting on Bermuda greens. He ranks second in the field in weighted Putting that measures Shots-Gained: Putting, Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda greens, and Three Putt Avoidance. Putting is critical at this course with low scores expected. Since 2017, every winner at Sedgefield CC finished tied for 19th or better in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week — and the last three winners have finished eighth or better in putting for the week. McCarthy is also one of seven golfers in the field this week who ranks in the top 50 in the field in Driving Accuracy, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and weighted Putting. The last two winners at this tournament, Kevin Kisner and Tom Kim, ranked in the top 50 in the field in those three categories entering the week. He missed the cut here last year after making the weekend in his first four trips here with three top-22 finishes including a ninth place in 2020 — and he is probably playing the best golf of his life now.

McCarthy is linked with Sungjae Im in Round One head-to-head props. We were on Im last week — and he disappointed us with a missed cut at the 3M Open. Im has feasted at lesser-tier events like this in the past — but he is simply not in good form right now. He has missed the cut in two of his last three events — and he has missed the cut in five of his last nine tournaments. It has almost been three months since he finished in eighth place at the Wells Fargo Championship — and he has not had a result inside the top 20 since that result. Im is usually a good ball-striker but he has not been as effective Off-the-Tee. Take McCarthy (7146) versus Im (7145) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place this week with the Wyndham Classic being hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.263 which was a nine-year high. Six of the last seven winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet.

BEST BET: Russell Henley (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Henley (7139) versus Hideki Matsuyama (7140 in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:00 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Russell Henley who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Henley returns to action for the first time since missing the cut at the British Open two weeks ago. He had finished in the top 20 in seven of his previous nine tournaments — headlined by a fourth-place result at the Masters back in April. The links-style courses in Europe are not Henley’s cup of tea — so the failure to play the weekend at Royal Liverpool is not a big surprise. But Henley loves playing on Ross-designed courses that are short and positional which require ball-shaping and accuracy. He ranks sixth on the PGA Tour by averaging +1.38 shots gained per round on Ross-designed courses since 2018 (minimum 16 rounds). Henley leads the PGA Tour in Driver Accuracy — he will split the fairways all week here at Sedgefield CC. He ranks second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee on short and positional courses. He ranks seventh in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green which will be critical this week — and he rises to fourth in the field in that metric in his last 36 rounds versus the field. The last seven winners of this tournament at Sedgefield Country Club finished in the top 12 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also leads the field in Shots-Gained on Par 4 holes consisting of 400 to 450 yards which will give him an edge on the eight holes at this course fitting that description. Henley can struggle with his putting — but that has not held him back at this event where he ranks third in the field in Shots-Gained: Total. He has made the cut here in five of six previous trips — and he has finished ninth, seventh, and fifth in the last three years here. In his last 16 rounds at Sedgefield CC, he has averaged a score of 66.56 per round.

Henley is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Round One head-to-head props. We were on Matsuyama last week — and while he was spectacular in his opening round (and played well on Sunday), he was a disappointment on Friday. On the one hand, the former Masters’ champion is in solid form by finishing tied for 32nd place or better in 10 of his last 11 tournaments. But since his fifth-place finish at THE Players Championship back in March, he has not finished better than 13th place. I considered him once again this week — but I don’t love his price at +2000 and Henley is simply a more reliable fit on this golf course. While his Ball Striking remains elite, he ranks only 74th on the tour in Driving Accuracy this season. But what holds Matsuyama back is his blade — he ranks 124th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. Since 2017, every winner at Sedgefield CC finished tied for 19th or better in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week — and the last three winners have finished eighth or better in putting for the week. Matsuyama has three top-15 finishes at this tournament in Greensboro — but he has missed the cut in his four other appearances. Take Henley (7139) versus Matsuyama (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the fifth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities.

BEST BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7009) versus Justin Thomas (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:25 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. The former Masters champion is in good form coming off a tie for 13th place at the British Open last week — his second tie for 13th place in his last three events. He was dealing with a neck injury earlier in the season but that does not seem to be impacting him any no longer when considering he has registered seven top-25 results in his last 11 tournaments. Only one of those results was worse than a tie for 32nd place when he missed the cut at the PGA Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit earlier this month. He ranks 15th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he ranks third in the field this week in Approach over his last 36 rounds. The previous four winners at the TPC Twin Cities for the PGA 3M Open finished tied for 19th or better in the field for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and three of those four winners finished tied for fourth or better in that metric. Matsuyama also ranks eighth on the tour in Bogey Avoidance this season — and two of the last three winners of this tournament bogeyed only three of the holes for the entire week. His biggest weakness tends to be with his blade — but he has gained shots versus the field in putting in three of his last five tournaments. Matsuyama ranks 56th in the FedEx standings — so he needs a good week to ensure he finishes in the top 70 that is necessary to make the three-tournament playoff next month. He has played this course before with a tie for seventh place in 2019 — so he has experience with the terrain.

Matsuyama is linked with Justin Thomas in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thomas is mired in the worst slump of his career. After missing the cut at the British Open by shooting +11 over par in the first two rounds, he has failed to play the weekend in four of his last six tournaments. Thomas needs to play well this week since he is currently on the outside looking in regarding the playoffs given his current ranking of 75th in the FedEx standings — but I am skeptical that he can simply flip a switch he has been trying to find for weeks. His putting has been a house of horrors — he ranks 159th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. His ball-striking is off as well — he ranks 69th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee which is important this week given the length of the course. While he usually is one of the top pros on the tour with his irons, he ranks just 40th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. And Thomas has never played this course as a professional so he is at a disadvantage when it comes to experience at the TPC Twin Cities. Take Matsuyama (7009) versus Thomas (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the fifth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Sungjae Im (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Im (7006) versus Tony Finau (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:25 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Im has finished in the top-29 in three of his last four tournaments. His tie for 20th place at the British Open last week was a great result for him when considering that he missed the cut at the 2019 British Open before a tie for 81st place last year. He gained more than two strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green last week. Im leads the field this week in Birdies or Better Percentage and Par-5 Scoring this season. TPC Twin Cities compares to PGA National and the Detroit Golf Course as tracks that tend to see lower scores from the professionals. Im is second in the field this week by averaging +1.62 strokes gained versus the field per round at those three courses (minimum 12 rounds played). Im finished tied for 15th place at this tournament in his debut in 2019 before a tie for second place last year. He has a scoring average of 67.50 per round in those two tournaments. After finishing ninth in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2019, he improved to ranking second in the field in that metric last year. He leads the field this week by averaging +2.68 strokes gained versus the field per round at TPC Twin Cities.

Im is linked with Tony Finau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Finau is the defending champion at this tournament — and that carries with it extra responsibilities during the week. He plays this track well and is a regular at PGA 3M Open in Blaine — but he is simply not in good form right now. He missed the cut for the second straight tournament last week at the British Open. After winning the Mexico Open at the end of April, he has missed the cut in three of his seven events while never finishing better than a tie for 23rd place — and that was back in early May. Finau has been only average in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green after his irons were the critical factor in his strong play for a six-month period. He has lost multiple strokes versus the field in putting in five of his last six tournaments. Take Im (7006) versus Finau (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes option if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the fifth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities.

LONG SHOT: Lucas Glover (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Glover (7025) versus Stephan Jaeger (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 shots if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:15 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Lucas Glover who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Since switching from a traditional putter to a broomstick putter at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit, Glover’s game has been transformed. He finished tied for fourth place that week before a tie for sixth place at the John Deere Classic and then a fifth-place finish at the Barbasol Championship last week. He had the lead after 36 holes in that event. After losing strokes to the field with his putter in 17 of 19 events, he gained nine strokes versus the field in his first two tournaments with the broomstick putter before losing -0.7 strokes with his blade last week. Frankly, if Glover can just stay above water with his putter this week, he should be in contention on Sunday. He ranks 25th on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. The previous four winners at the TPC Twin Cities for the PGA 3M Open finished tied for 19th or better in the field for the week in Shots-Gained: ApproaGlover has gained strokes versus the field in the Approach in four of his last five tournaments — and he has gained +1.4 strokes versus the field in the Approach per round in his last 12 rounds. He has also gained two strokes per round versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in those last three tournaments. This is his fourth trip to the TPC Twin Cities to play in this tournament — his best result was a tie for seventh place in 2019.

Glover is linked with Stephan Jaeger in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Jaeger is in solid form with ten straight made cuts after his tie for 34th place last week at the Barbasol Challenge — but only one of those results was in the top ten with his ninth-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He is not as good with his irons as Glover — he ranks 64th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Jaeger ranks just 75th on the tour in Par-4 Scoring — and the last four winners of this tournament have finished tied for first or second place in Par-4 Scoring for the week. Jaeger has not played well in his two previous trips to TPC Twin Cities. He finished in 66th place in 2019 before missing the cut last year. Take Glover (7025) versus Jaeger (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. Royal Liverpool located in the Wirral Peninsula in Hoylake, England hosts the Open Championship for the 13th time in the 151 incarnations of this tournament. This is the third time that the Open Championship will be played at Royal Liverpool this century. Tiger Woods claimed the Claret Jug here in 2006 before Rory McIlroy his most recent major championship title here in 2014. There are several changes to the course for the 156 professionals this time around. Previously a Par 72 setup, the course has been lowered to a Par 71 track due to the new Par 3 at the 17th hole leaving just three Par 5 holes for the professionals to tackle. The course has been lengthened from 7312 yards in 2014 to 7383 yards this week. Even more fairway bunkers have been added. The terrain is treacherous off-the-tee given so many sand bunkers — and six holes threaten with out-of-bounds territories that are very much in play. The fairways are flat but just a narrow 32 yards wide on average. The initial rough is manageable before the iconic tall fescue that makes hitting the greens in regulation virtually impossible. It was for these reasons that Woods historically pulled out his driver only once in his four rounds in his 2006 victory. McIlroy considered playing things safe on this links course that he used his two iron off-the-tee more often than his driver. The putting surface is slower than the other three major championships with the greens consisting of a Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and fescue blend. Weather will once again play a significant role in an Open Championship. Wind gusts in the 10-20 miles per hour range with mild rain are expected for Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are expected for Saturday with rain still in the forecast for Sunday with the winds likely to hit up to 20 miles per hour. 


TOP OVERLAY BET: Viktor Hovland (+2200 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Hovland (7191) in Round One head-to-head props versus Rory McIlroy (7192) (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop comes off the board at 9:45 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Hovland looks poised to take the next step and claim his first major championship. He finished tied for seventh place at the Masters after sharing the first-round lead. He was in a position to win the PGA Championship before a bad chip late in the final round cost him the title against Brooks Koepka as he settled for a tie for second place. Afterward, he had the look and the sound of a professional determined to do what was necessary to overcome his final obstacle. He was definitely not happy with coming close. Two weeks later, he won the difficult Memorial Championship in a playoff. He is getting better in clutch moments — and he adjusted his tactics that week by being less aggressive while focusing more on shot shaping to put himself in a better position to succeed. He settled for 19th place at the US Open — and he comes off a tie for 25th place last week at the Scottish Open which included a second-round score of 63. His new approach should serve him well at Royal Liverpool. His weakness is Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 128th on the PGA Tour — although that represents an improvement in an area that he has dedicated much practice time. But dealing with the rough that ultimately plagued him at the PGA Championship is not a factor on this golf course. Hovland is fine at Scrambling where he ranks 30th on the tour — and he has the option to simply use his putter if he close but not on the green this week. He is also skilled when dealing with sand as he ranks 15th on the tour in Sand Save Percentage. Hovland is accurate with his driver — he ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is seventh in the field this week by gaining at least one stroke versus the field Off-the-Tee 34.0% of the time over his last 100 rounds. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Hovland shared the lead at the British Open last year after 54 holes before settling for a tie for fourth place. He finished tied for 12th place in his first Open Championship two years ago — and the experience playing with Cameron Smith in the final group last year should help him immensely this time around.

Hovland is linked with Rory McIlroy in Round One head-to-head props. I am quite comfortable fading McIlroy once again — when one has done something 35 times in a row without fail, it begins to feel reliable. McIlroy has not won a major championship since winning at Royal Liverpool in 2014. It is not simply that he has been getting unlucky. The pressure on his shoulders consistently results in him blowing a crucial shot that keeps him from winning — as it did at the US Open last month when he lost to Wyndham Clark. Coming off a victory last week at the Scottish Open only adds to the weight of expectation to a course where he has previously won. Defending champion at Royal Livermore — and coming off a win last week? Oy, for Rory. Following up a win on the PGA Tour by winning a major championship has happened only 11 times since 1934 — and only seven of those winners were doing it in back-to-back weeks. The new short 17th hole is not doing McIlroy any favors either since he ranks 145th on the tour when playing from 125 to 150 yards from the hole. I particularly like this prop for Round One since the pressure on McIlroy will be at its apex (unless he is in contention on Sunday) and he will probably be just a little more cautious. Take Hovland (7191) versus McIlroy (7192) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. Royal Liverpool located in the Wirral Peninsula in Hoylake, England hosts the Open Championship for the 13th time in the 151 incarnations of this tournament. This is the third time that the Open Championship will be played at Royal Liverpool this century. Tiger Woods claimed the Claret Jug here in 2006 before Rory McIlroy his most recent major championship title here in 2014. There are several changes to the course for the 156 professionals this time around. Previously a Par 72 setup, the course has been lowered to a Par 71 track due to the new Par 3 at the 17th hole leaving just three Par 5 holes for the professionals to tackle. The course has been lengthened from 7312 yards in 2014 to 7383 yards this week. Even more fairway bunkers have been added. The terrain is treacherous off-the-tee given so many sand bunkers — and six holes threaten with out-of-bounds territories that are very much in play. The fairways are flat but just a narrow 32 yards wide on average. The initial rough is manageable before the iconic tall fescue that makes hitting the greens in regulation virtually impossible. It was for these reasons that Woods historically pulled out his driver only once in his four rounds in his 2006 victory. McIlroy considered playing things safe on this links course that he used his two iron off-the-tee more often than his driver. The putting surface is slower than the other three major championships with the greens consisting of a Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and fescue blend. Weather will once again play a significant role in an Open Championship. Wind gusts in the 10-20 miles per hour range with mild rain are expected for Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are expected for Saturday with rain still in the forecast for Sunday with the winds likely to hit up to 20 miles per hour. 


LONG SHOT: Dustin Johnson (+3000 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Johnson (7174) in Round One head-to-head props versus Tom Kim (7173). This prop goes off the board at 8 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Dustin Johnson who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Johnson fits the profile of many British Open winners: a veteran professional in his late-30s with talent, wisdom, and experience coming into the week. He comes into this week in good form with three straight top-15 finishes consisting of major championships and LIV events. I think it is safe to conclude that being on the LIV Tour has not served as a disadvantage for those golfers in the majors — and perhaps the light schedule from LIV events gives those golfers some edge considering the added pressure and responsibilities for the top golfers on the PGA Tour now with the elevated events (although, the pay is great). Johnson made the cut at the Masters and the PGA Championship — but he demonstrated his great form at the US Open last month where he finished in a tie for 10th place. Johnson ranked fifth that week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Furthermore, his +7.49 strokes gained versus the field in Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green) — his best performance since 2021. His putting has held him back this year — but the slower greens this week should help out. He ranks ninth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total at the British Open since 2008 (minimum 12 rounds played). He has finished in the top-ten six times — including five top-tens since 2014. The 39-year-old is well-versed to succeed at links golf having made the cut 11 times in his 13 Open Championships. He finished in second place in 2011 — and his last two British Opens have resulted in a tie for eighth place and a tie for sixth place. He finished tied for 14th place here at Royal Liverpool in 2014.

Johnson is linked with Tom Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Johnson holds a significant edge in course history and experience at links golf than Kim. The South Korean does come off a nice tie for sixth place last week at the Scottish Open. He has a bright future. But he has missed the cut in three of his last six tournaments. He did impress with a tie for eighth place at the US Open — but he followed that up with a tie for 38th place at the Travelers Championship before missing the cut in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He can struggle with his blade as he ranks 136th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is also just 50th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His lack of experience in British Opens may exacerbate these weaknesses — especially given the layout at Royal Liverpool. He finished tied for 47th place last year in his first British Open — but Johnson has a decided edge for Round One on a course that he has played a British Open on already. Take Johnson (7174) versus Kim (7173) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. Royal Liverpool located in the Wirral Peninsula in Hoylake, England hosts the Open Championship for the 13th time in the 151 incarnations of this tournament. This is the third time that the Open Championship will be played at Royal Liverpool this century. Tiger Woods claimed the Claret Jug here in 2006 before Rory McIlroy his most recent major championship title here in 2014. There are several changes to the course for the 156 professionals this time around. Previously a Par 72 setup, the course has been lowered to a Par 71 track due to the new Par 3 at the 17th hole leaving just three Par 5 holes for the professionals to tackle. The course has been lengthened from 7312 yards in 2014 to 7383 yards this week. Even more fairway bunkers have been added. The terrain is treacherous off-the-tee given so many sand bunkers — and six holes threaten with out-of-bounds territories that are very much in play. The fairways are flat but just a narrow 32 yards wide on average. The initial rough is manageable before the iconic tall fescue that makes hitting the greens in regulation virtually impossible. It was for these reasons that Woods historically pulled out his driver only once in his four rounds in his 2006 victory. McIlroy considered playing things safe on this links course that he used his two iron off-the-tee more often than his driver. The putting surface is slower than the other three major championships with the greens consisting of a Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and fescue blend. Weather will once again play a significant role in an Open Championship. Wind gusts in the 10-20 miles per hour range with mild rain are expected for Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are expected for Saturday with rain still in the forecast for Sunday with the winds likely to hit up to 20 miles per hour.

BEST BET: Brooks Koepka (+1800 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Koepka (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props versus Cam Smith (7007). This prop goes off the board at 4:35 AM ET on Thursday.


Our Best Bet to win the British Open is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Koepka only cares about the major championships — so assessing his season-long data is like evaluating Gerrit Cole’s pitching numbers including his bullpen sessions between starts. Koepka treats the LIV Tour as his practice sessions just as he did for the non-major events on the PGA Tour before his defection. He also used last summer’s move to the LIV Tour as a cover to continue to rehab and recover from his back issues. He has been fantastic this season in the three previous major championships. He was leading at the Masters going into the Sunday but still had to play a round and a half of golf that day given the rain delays that week. He settled for a tie for second place to Jon Rahm (who was our Best Bet). We were then on Koepka at the PGA Championship — and he rewarded us with the win at 22-1 odds. He settled for a tie for 17th place at the US Open last month — but that should leave him hungry to win his first Claret Jug. He would rank seventh and ninth in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green if his metrics from those three majors were eligible for the official PGA Tour rankings in those categories. Koepka is no longer on the PGA Tour — and he lacks the minimum sample size to qualify anyways, albeit on courses not nearly as challenging as the ones used for the three previous majors. Koepka is as well-rounded golfer as anyone in the world — and he is battle-tested with five championships in his last 23 majors. He is reliable with his putter — and he can handle extreme weather. He has finished in the top-ten four times in his six British Opens with a tie for fourth place in 2019 and a tie for sixth place in 2021. He missed the cut at last year’s British Open — but he was still dealing with his back issues and it was amidst the early hub-but regarding the establishment of the now allied LIV Tour. Koepka played this course in the 2014 British Open as well — and while he finished tied for 67th place in his debut at an Open Championship that year, the experience at the course should help him immensely now.

Koepka is linked with Cam Smith in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. I love Smith — and we were on him when he won the British Open last year. But the wide fairways at Saint Andrew’s were a great fit for Smith whose biggest weakness is his accuracy off-the-tee. Royal Liverpool presents a much tougher challenge for him this week given the narrower fairways along with all the fairway traps and out-of-bounds hazards. Smith is as good as anyone in the world when he gets close to the green — but he has lost strokes off-the-tee in eight straight majors. This is the wrong course to be needing to play catchup versus the field after the first shot. He was able to minimize that disadvantage at Saint Andrew’s. For context, Smith would rank 138th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee using his stats from the three previous majors this season. And, frankly, Smith has a spotty record at Open Championships despite being an Englishman and now defending champion. In his four previous British Opens, he did not finish higher than a tie for 20th place. This is also his first professional appearance at Royal Liverpool  — and he has the additional pressure of hosting duties this week as the reigning Opening Champion. Take Koepka (7008) versus Smith (7007) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, four Par 3s, and 11 Par 4s. The greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the fifth straight year with this tournament.

BEST BET: Tyrrell Hatton (+1800 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Hatton (7146) in Round One head-to-head prop versus Rickie Fowler (7145). This prop goes off the board at 8:25 AM ET on Thursday.


Our Best Bet to win the Scottish Open is on Tyrrell Hatton. He last played four weeks ago at the US Open when he finished tied for 27th place — but he has three top-fives and six top-20s in his last seven starts. He is perhaps a bit underrated right now when considering he trails only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total. He ranks eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has gained an average of +2.4 shots versus the field in Approach-the-Green in his last ten events. He has also gained an average of +2.5 shots versus the field Off-the-Tee in his last ten tournaments — and this is particularly relevant since his driver has been his Achilles’ heel in the past. Hatton is also an excellent putter who ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. In his last three tournaments, he has gained +5.6, +7.0, and +4.4 strokes versus the field with his blade. The Englishman has plenty of experience playing in this part of the world — he has 13 top-20s in his last 17 tournaments in Scotland. He has three top-24 results in his three previous visits to the Renaissance Club. He ranks sixth in the field (minimum eight rounds played) in Shots-Gained: Total in the previous four Scottish Opens at the Renaissance Club.

Hatton is linked with Rickie Fowler for Round One head-to-head props. Fowler returns to action for the first time since winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic two weeks ago. After a string of five straight 13th or better finishes, an emotional letdown may be in order for the fan favorite after the celebration of winning his first PGA Tour event since 2019. Fowler may struggle to adapt to the elements this week — he ranks 65th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He did win the Scottish Open in 2015 — but that was not at the Renaissance Club. In his two previous trips to this golf course, he missed the cut and settled for a tie 47th place. Frankly, Fowler may be looking ahead to the British Open next week — as opposed to a professional with plenty of experience playing in Scotland. Take Hatton (7146) versus Fowler (7145) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, four Par 3s, and 11 Par 4s. The greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the fifth straight year with this tournament.

LONG SHOT: Justin Rose (+4500 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Rose (7144) in Round One head-to-head prop versus Shane Lowry (7113) (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:10 AM ET on Thursday.


Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer who is outside the top-ten favorites is on Justin Rose. It looks like the Englishman is under the radar after missing the cut at the US Open last month, his last PGA Tour event. But Rose has been back in England where he finished tied for fourth place at the British Masters in Belfry two weeks ago to continue what has been a great run for him this year. Rose finished tied for sixth place at THE Players Championship before a tie for 16th place at the Masters and then a tie for ninth place at the PGA Championship. He has nine top-25 finishes worldwide this year. Rose ranks 12th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He also ranks 13th on the tour on Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Of particular importance this week is the Approach from 125 to 200 yards away as it consisted of over 50% of approach shots at this tournament last year. Rose ranks 38th or better on the tour in the Approach from 125 to 150 feet, from 151 to 175 yards, and from 176-200 yards this season. He is also an outstanding putter who ranks 22nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and that will be a critical component to success this week. Rose is very familiar with the fescue putting surface. He ranks 10th in the field in Shots-Gained: Total since 2008 when playing in the United Kingdom or Ireland (minimum 20 rounds). He played here last year and settled for 69th place after a difficult Saturday — but he is in better form this time around.

Rose is linked with Shane Lowry for Round One head-to-head props. Lowry has made five straight cuts on the PGA Tour after his tie for 19th place at the Travelers Championship. He has not finished worse than a tie for 43rd place in those five tournaments. But my biggest concern for Lowry this week is that this is the first time he is playing at the Renaissance Club as a professional — so Rose’s previous four rounds here give him an edge (especially for Thursday’s Round One). Lowry is ball-striking quite well — but he is struggling closer to the hole. He ranks 107th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green — and he ranks 141st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Lowry probably is more concerned about using these four rounds as preparation for next week at the British Open, especially as a past winner of the Claret Jug. Take Rose (7144) versus Lowry (7143) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 7/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with Min Woo Lee in Round One head-to-head props versus Sungjae Im. Lee has proven himself at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick when he won the Scottish Open there in 2021. After missing the cut at this event last year as the reigning champion, he will have something to prove this week. He comes into this tournament in good form with five straight made cuts since the PGA Championship. After an impressive tie for fifth place at the US Open, he followed that up with a tie for ninth place at the Travelers Championship three weeks ago. He ranks ninth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total in the previous four Scottish Opens hosted at the Renaissance Club (minimum 20 rounds). He is linked with Sungjae Im for Round One head-to-head props. Im is slumping right now with three missed cuts in his last six tournaments on the PGA Tour. His irons are letting him down. After ranking 45th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green last season, he has fallen to 75th in that category this year. He played in this event last year but missed the cut. Take Lee (7119) versus Im (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer had his second near-miss in the last three weeks with Alex Smalley finishing in second place (at +3500 odds) at the PGA John Deere Classic last week — two weeks removed from his second place with Brian Harmon (+6000 odds) at the PGA Travelers Championship! Frank is lurking since CA$HING with Brooks Koepka at 20-1 odds at the PGA Championship — his TENTH 1ST PLACE WINNER in his last 36 PGA Tour Reports and HIS FIFTH 1st Place trophy in 2023 with his regulars now enjoying over 56 WEEKS OF FREE ROLLS for all of 2023 and beyond! Frank’s PGA Scottish Open Betting Report this week includes his BEST BET WAGER to win; his TOP OVERLAY BET that identifies the most value; and his LONG SHOT BET of a golfer outside the top ten favorites — along with BONUS HEAD-TO-HEAD PROP BETS with his three favorite golfers! This tournament tees off at 2:15 AM ET early Thursday morning — BANK on Frank!

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, four Par 3s, and 11 Par 4s. The greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the fifth straight year with this tournament.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+2000 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Fleetwood (7114) in Round One head-to-head prop versus Jordan Spieth (7113). This prop goes off the board at 3:10 AM ET on Thursday.


Our Top Overlay Play on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tommy Fleetwood. He may have a chip on his shoulder this week after missing the cut at the Travelers Championship three weeks ago. Despite that disappointment, the Englishman is in as good a form as at any time in his career with three top-five finishes in his last six tournaments including a second place at the RBC Canadian Open and a tie for fifth place at the US Open. While Fleetwood has yet to win on the PGA Tour, he has six wins on the DP Tour. He has gained strokes Off-the-Tee versus the field in seven of his last eight tournaments — and he has gained strokes in both Approach-the-Green and Around-the-Green against the field in six of his last events. He ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 29th in Shots-Gained: Putting on the tour for the 2022-23 season. Additionally, he ranks fifth in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in tournaments in the United Kingdom or Ireland since 2008 (minimum 20 rounds). In the last four Scottish Opens at the Renaissance Club, Fleetwood ranks second in the field in Shots-Gained: Total (minimum eight rounds). He lost in a playoff at this tournament in 2020 before a tie for fourth place last year when he led the field over the weekend with a pair of 67s.

Fleetwood is linked with Jordan Spieth in Round One head-to-head props. Spieth has five top-five finishes in his last 11 rounds — and he has had good success on links courses. But he has also missed the cut in three of his last five tournaments including at the US Open in his last start. He has been dealing with an injured wrist — and while his fifth-place finish at the Memorial last month suggests the issue is resolved — it certainly does not help his cause with the question still lingering. Spieth has not been as sharp this season as he was for the 2021-22 campaign. After ranking 18th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last season, he has fallen to 25th in that category this season. And while he ranked 36th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee last season, he has dropped to 47th Off-the-Tee this season. His putting has been inconsistent as well ranking 70th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and now he has to handle slower greens and the unfamiliar fescue putting surface. Spieth played at the Renaissance Club for the first time last year when he finished in tenth place. But with him not playing for about a month and with the big prize being next week at the British Open, I am not expecting a fantastic start from Spieth — especially when compared to Fleetwood. Take Fleetwood (7114) versus Spieth (7113) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course that consists of 7286 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens. The average winning score in the last five years here has been 21 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest.

Long Shot Bet: Adam Smalley (+3500 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Smalley in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop versus Eric Cole. This prop goes off the board at 1:10 PM ET.

Smalley has four top-25 finishes in his last seven events after a tie for ninth place at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. He has made the cut in six of his last seven tournaments. He did settle for a tie for 47th place last week at the PGA Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit  — but he can take some good things from that tournament heading into this week. Smalley gained +7.3 strokes versus the field in Approach the Green — and that could be a good omen for him at TPC Deere Run. Both Dylan Frittelli in 2019 and J.T. Boston last year gained at least seven strokes versus the field in the Approach in their previous tournament before winning this tournament. Smalley is one of the better ball-strikers on the PGA Tour as he ranks 33rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. The last seven winners of this tournament finished tied for seventh or better in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week. Smalley also ranks in the top-25 in Greens-in-Regulation and Proximity to the Hole. Smalley has made the weekend in both his previous trips here including a tie for 16th place last year.

Smalley is linked with Eric Cole in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cole leads all rookies in the FedEx standings after a tie for 24th place at the Travelers Championship. He ranks 17th on the tour in Adjusted Scoring. But he has a weakness in his game with his driver as he ranks 146th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. That gets him trouble with birdie chances as he ranks 152nd on the tour in Greens-in-Regulation. This is his second trip to TPC Deere Run after missing the cut at this tournament in 2021. Take Smalley (7024) versus  Cole (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course that consists of 7286 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens. The average winning score in the last five years here has been 21 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest.

Best Bet: Denny McCarthy (+1800 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: McCarthy (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop versus Cameron Young (7004). This prop goes off the board at 8;25 AM ET.

McCarthy may be the hottest golfer in the field. He followed up an impressive second-place finish at the Memorial last month with a tie for 20th place at the US Open and then a tie for seventh place at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. He has nine top-20 finishes in his last 15 tournaments. He has been putting great during this stretch and now ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting  — and a red-hot putter will be essential to win this event this week. He also ranks third on the tour in putting on Bentgrass greens in his last 24 rounds. McCarthy ranks 14th on the tour in Adjusted Scoring. He can put up a low score as he ranks tied for 20th on the tour in Rounds in the 60s this season. He should thrive on the Par 4s as he leads the field this week and is tied for fourth on the PGA Tour for scoring on Par 4 holes. He also leads the field in Par 4 scoring on holes from 400 to 450 yards from the tee box. The last four winners of this tournament at TPC Deere Run either led or co-led the field in Par 4 Scoring for the week. McCarthy is still looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour — so he should be very motivated this week. This is his fifth trip to TPC Deere Run after finishing tied for sixth place last year.

McCarthy is linked with Cameron Young in head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Young peaked earlier in the season with a tie for seventh place at the Masters. But his tie for 32nd place at the US Open last month is his only top-50 finish in his last seven tournaments. He has missed the cut in two of his last five events. He comes off a tie for 60th place at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. Young is struggling with his putter right now — he ranks 117th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is a good ball-striker — but he ranks 84th on the tour this season in Par 4 Scoring so putting up a low score may be difficult for him. His 6 under par at the Masters is the lowest score in his last 12 individual tournaments. To compound the challenge for Young this week, this is his first professional appearance at TPC Deere Run — so the professionals like McCarthy will have a big edge in course experience this week. Take McCarthy (7003) versus Young (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course that consists of 7286 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens. The average winning score in the last five years here has been 21 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest.

Top Overlay Bet: Adam Schenk (+3000 at DraftKings). xRecommended prop bet: Schenk in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop versus Ludvig Aberg (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:15 AM ET.

Schenk finished tied for seventh place at the Memorial Tournament in May — and he comes off a tie for seventh place at PGA Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit last week. He may be on the verge of winning his first PGA Tour event after close call second place finishes at the Valspar Championship and the Charles Schwab Challenge earlier this year. Schenk is comfortable in events that require low scores to compete. He ranks tied for ninth on the PGA Tour in Rounds in the 60s for the 2022-23 season. He ranks fourth in the field this week in Birdies or Better Percentage in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks fifth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his last 24 rounds. Schenk withdrew from this tournament after a subpar opening round last year — but he tied for sixth place in 2019 before a tie for fourth place in 2021 in his four trips so he is familiar and comfortable with the course.

Schenk is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Aberg was the number one ranked amateur player for the PGA Tour’s Class of 2023. He finished in the top 40 or better in all three of his events since turning professional. He comes off a tie for 40th place last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic after a tie for 25th place and a tie for 24th place at the RBC Canadian Open and the Travelers Championship. With only 20 rounds on the PGA Tour in 2023, he does not appear in the official PGA Tour rankings. I worry about his ability to post a low score given his Approach-the-Green numbers which would rank tied for 118th on the PGA Tour in that category if he qualified. The Texas Tech alum certainly has potential — but he is being given too much credit, especially as a debutante in this tournament when compared to a veteran like Schenk. Take Schenk (7010) versus Aberg (7009) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props — and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the fifth straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track with 17 of the holes being played there while one hole from the South Course completes the setup for the professionals this week. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. This tournament has seen top-ten Greens-In-Regulation numbers for the tour in each of the four previous events. The average score last year was 70.397.

BEST BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+1800 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Matsuyama (7014) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop versus Sungjae Im (7013) that goes off the board at 1:05 PM ET.

Matsuyama is not showing any lingering effects of the neck issues that slowed him down earlier in the year. He comes off a tie for 13th place at TPC River Highlands last week where he scored 64, 65, and 66 in the final three rounds. He is playing very consistent golf as of late with nine straight made cuts with five of those events resulting in top-20 finishes. He has finished in 32nd place or better in eight straight tournaments. In his last seven tournaments, he has gained +31.77 strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green — and in his last five events, he has averaged +5.1 Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green per round versus the field. He ranks third in the field this week in Approach-the-Green in his last 24 rounds. With the smaller greens this week, getting on the green for birdie opportunities will be critical. Matsuyama is comfortable in birdie fests. In his eight PGA Tour wins, two of those titles had him scoring 23 under par. He has played this course three times in his career with a 13th place in 2019 and a 20th place result in 2020 before pulling out of the 2021 event.

Matsuyama is linked with Sungjae Im in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Im comes off a tie for 29th place at the Travelers Championship last week. He is a pro that I frequently endorse since he is a reliable ball-striker who is solid in all aspects of his game. But he is not in great form right now with three missed cuts in his last five events. The other event that he recently reached the weekend was at the Memorial where he finished tied for 41st place. The Detroit Golf Club is not a great fit for him since it is a longer course that rewards big hitters given the wide fairways and forgiving rough. Im ranks 105th on the tour in Driving Distance. He is 68th in Approach-the-Green this season after ranking 45th in that metric for the 2021-22 campaign. This will be his fourth appearance at the Detroit Golf Club where he peaked in 2021 with a tie for 8th place — but he was playing better golf at that time. Take Matsuyama (7014) versus Im (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from Los Angeles to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2022-23 season with 156 professionals competing for the $3.6 million prize for first place. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6852 yards, the course is the fourth shortest of the tracks in the PGA Tour rotation. The bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. Low scores are expected with the average score being under par for five straight years. The average winning score since 2016 has been 16 under par.

BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Fleetwood (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop versus Tony Finau (7015) -- and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150.      

Fleetwood is playing outstanding golf right now. He followed up losing in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open two weeks ago with a tie for fifth place last week at the US Open. He concluded that event with a round of 63. While the cash prize is enticing this week, Fleetwood has the additional motivation of still chasing his first title on the PGA Tour despite several near misses at major championships including three top-fives at the US Open (second place in 2018) and two top-fours at the British Open including a second place in 2019. Fleetwood plays extensively on the European Tour as well — and he has seven titles internationally, so he is way overdue. He ranks seventh on the PGA Tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Total this season. He is sixth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which is a critical skill this week on this short course with small greens. Seven of the last eight winners at TPC River Highlands finished in the top-six in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week  — and eight straight winners have finished in the top-eight in that category after Xander Schauffele won this tournament last year after finishing eighth last year. Fleetwood is also an excellent putter who ranks 24th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season — and he has gained strokes versus the field with his blade in nine straight events. The last five times that the Travelers Championship followed up the US Open, the winner did compete at the US Open -- and the last three winners also finished T-13 or better at the US Open under those circumstances. Fleetwood has played at this tournament two other times — he finished tied for 13th place in 2019 and tied for 46th place last year. Eight of the last nine winners at this event had previously finished tied for 31st place or better.        

Fleetwood is linked with Tony Finau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Finau comes off a tie for 32nd place at the US Open last week. After a red-hot summer to close out the 2021-22 season, he started well this year but has since cooled off. His two previous starts resulted in a tie for 72nd place at the PGA Championship before missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge last month. Finau is a good ball striker — but he does rank only 61st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 150 to 175 yards which is a common challenge on this course. Finau’s putter is letting him down as he ranks 86th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has previously competed at this tournament seven times. While he has four top-25 finishes, he has also missed the cut three times and never finished better than a tie for 13th place. Take Fleetwood (7016) versus Finau (7015) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props — and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from Los Angeles to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2022-23 season with 156 professionals competing for the $3.6 million prize for first place. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6852 yards, the course is the fourth shortest of the tracks in the PGA Tour rotation. The bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. Low scores are expected with the average score being under par for five straight years. The average winning score since 2016 has been 16 under par.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Russell Henley (+3000 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Henley (7138) in Round One head-to-head prop versus Si Woo Kim (7137).

Henley comes off an impressive tie for 14th place at the US Open last week. He also finished fourth at the Masters earlier this year. After missing the cut at the PGA Championship last month, he rebounded with a pair of ties for 16th place at the Charles Schwab Challenge and then the Memorial Tournament. Henley has gained strokes versus the field with his irons in eight straight tournaments — and he has gained at least +1.31 strokes versus the field with his irons in half those events. He has also gained strokes versus the field with his putter in six of his last seven tournaments. Overall, he has seven top-20s in his last eight events. Henley leads the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy — so the narrow fairways of about 30 yards in length should not pose a problem. He does sacrifice length for accuracy — but that leads to his performing well on shorter courses. His win on the PGA Tour in November at the World Wide Technology Championship was on a shorter course. He ranks eighth in the field in Adjusted Scoring on shorter courses in the last two years — and he is 11th in the field in over-performance relative to his baseline numbers on shorter courses in the last two years. Henley also has six top-20s in his last eight tournaments on courses designed by Pete Dye. He competed at this tournament five times with four made cuts and three top-20s headlined by a tie for 19th place in 2021. Eight of the last nine winners at this event had previously finished tied for 31st place or better. Furthermore, the last five times that the Travelers Championship followed up the US Open, the winner also competed at the US Open -- and the last three winners also finished T-13 or better at the US Open under those circumstances.

Henley is linked with Si Woo Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Kim comes off a tie for 39th place at the US Open. And while this is his seventh trip to TPC River Highlands with his best showing being a tie for 11th place in 2020, he has missed the cut three times. Kim is a good ball-striker — but his putter can let him down as he ranks 113th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Henley (7138) versus Kim (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Cameron Smith (+3000 at DraftKings) to win the tournament  -- and take Smith (7024) versus Spieth (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150).

THE SITUATION: The third major championship takes place week with the US Open hosted in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The tournament takes place on the North Course consisting of 7421 yards at a Par of 70. The course has three Par-5s, five Par-3s, and six Par-4s of 480 or more yards in length with three of those at least 505 yards. Despite the length of this George C. Thomas-designed course, big drivers may not be rewarded this week — the North Course at the LA Country Club plays like a links course with crafty shot-making that takes advantage of the changes of contours and elevations on the fairways being at a premium. The fairways are wider than a typical US Open — but missing the fairways puts the Bermuda grass rough into play that will be up to three or four inches in length. The course draws comparisons to Augusta National despite water not being in play. The greens consist of Bentgrass with the undulated putting surfaces averaging 6500 square feet in length and that measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Like the WM Phoenix Open, the crowd is expected to play a role this week.

REASONS TO BACK CAMERON SMITH: Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the best value relative to the odds is on Cameron Smith who is listed at +3000 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Smith opened the week at +2500 odds but has since seen his price drop — to our delight. The biggest weakness to his game is his driving — he is not long Off the Tee and he can struggle with his accuracy. But the deeper I went into my dive into the intricacies of the Los Angeles Country Club, the less I find distance off the tee to be an important component for success this week. Instead, winning golf will require guile and shot-shaping to set up successful second shots. The wider fairways and links-style design should help Smith this week. For the record, Smith claims he is feeling confident with his driver right now — and he proclaimed that this course sets up better for him Off-the-Tee than past US Opens. His best finish at a US Open was in 2015 when he finished in fourth place at Chambers Bay — and that course was in the Pacific Northwest on a design that was not typical of usual US Opens (sound familiar to this week?). Smith may be the best putter in the world — and he is one of the best professionals with his creativity and touch Around-the-Green. With the Augusta National comparison to the Los Angeles Country Club, his three top fives at the Masters are encouraging. He ranks fifth in the field in Adjusted Scoring at Major Championships. He won the Players Championship and the British Open last year — and we were on him for both events. He is in great form with 4th, 7th, 2nd, and 11th place finishes in his last four events on the LIV Tour. But it is his performance at the PGA Championship that is most encouraging for this week. In tying for ninth place that week, Smith finished fifth in Scrambling, 13th in Around-the-Green, and 21st in Approach-the-Green. He also was second in Putting by gaining +1.90 strokers per round against the field with his blade. If I am right that the driver will not be as critical as it initially appears this week, then he offers tremendous value with how good he is with his short game.

Smith is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Jim Nantz’s second favorite golfer has an excellent short game (most of the time) — but what Smith offers with steely resolve and discipline, Spieth lacks. For every two amazing shots Spieth will pull off, he will then confound with a clunker which will cost him a stroke or two — especially if he is in contention. The analytics don’t measure the mental game — but I pay close attention. Spieth has not won a major championship since the 2017 British Open which was, admittedly, after the midterms in Obama’s second Presidential term. He finished tied for 29th place at the PGA Championship before missing the cut in his hometown Dallas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Amidst rumors of an injured wrist, he rebounded with a tied for fifth place at the Memorial two weeks ago. Maybe the wrist is no longer a factor — but it has to be worrisome. Frankly, Spieth’s reputation from the last decade has him overvalued when compared to the metrics. He only ranks 28th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which betrays the notion that he is still an elite ball-striker. He ranks 137th in Driving Accuracy which could get him in trouble this week. He ranks 52nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 75th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is 52nd in Bogey Avoidance. When playing in California, the 29-year-old has only won one tournament in his career. Spieth did win the 2015 US Open — but he has not finished better than a tie for 35th place in his six US Opens since that triumph with two missed cuts. Take Smith (7024) versus Spieth (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

MONEY MANAGEMENT ADVICE: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

BEST BET: Jon Rahm (+900 at DraftKings) -- and take Rahm (7009) versus McIlroy (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props.

THE SITUATION: The third major championship takes place week with the US Open hosted in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The tournament takes place on the North Course consisting of 7421 yards at a Par of 70. The course has three Par-5s, five Par-3s, and six Par-4s of 480 or more yards in length with three of those at least 505 yards. Despite the length of this George C. Thomas-designed course, big drivers may not be rewarded this week — the North Course at the LA Country Club plays like a links course with crafty shot-making that takes advantage of the changes of contours and elevations on the fairways being at a premium. The fairways are wider than a typical US Open — but missing the fairways puts the Bermuda grass rough into play that will be up to three or four inches in length. The course draws comparisons to Augusta National despite water not being in play. The greens consist of Bentgrass with the undulated putting surfaces averaging 6500 square feet in length and that measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Like the WM Phoenix Open, the crowd is expected to play a role this week.

REASONS TO BACK RAHM: Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Jon Rahm who is listed at 9-1 at DraftKings. I don’t love investing in a golfer at such low odds — but being frugal is not the way to own NFL teams, build a Stanley Cup-winning roster, or cash winning 1st Place tickets at one of the four majors in professional golf. I think Rahm has the highest ceiling of anyone in the world when has his A-Game as he did when were on him at the Masters (despite his double-bogey on the opening hole on that Thursday at Augusta). He has not done much of note since with a tie for 50th place at the PGA Championship and a tie for 16th in his most recent event at the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago — but that means he should be feisty again after living large after winning his first green jacket in April. The deeper metrics from the Memorial are encouraging as he gained +11.4 strokes versus the field from Off-the-Tee and Approach-the-Green. What let him down that week was his putter as he lost 5 strokes to the field with his blade. Putting fluctuates — and he has proven he can succeed at the highest level on the short grass. Getting a hungry Rahm at a major being played in California is too good to pass up. In his 25 professional starts in the Golden State, Rahm has 16 top-ten finishes with five wins including his US Open victory at Torrey Pines. His second top-three finish at a US Open was also in California. The Arizona State grad has experience playing this course from his days playing for the Sun Devils. Rahm ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: All Around — and I will take him over Scottie Scheffler when he is on his game (Scheffler’s floor is higher, but his putting holds him back). Rahm ranks second in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his last 24 rounds — and he ranks third in the field in his last 36 rounds in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Additionally, Rahm leads the field in Proximity from 175 or more yards away from the hole which will be critical this week given the length of the course. Rahm performs well on difficult courses. He ranks eighth on the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and he is fourth in the field in Adjusted Scoring at major championships.

Rahm is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Jim Nantz’s favorite golfer and PGA figurehead for the wildly overblown PGA upper management rivalry with LIV golf has not won a major championship since 2014 back when Barack Obama was worried about the midterm elections of his second presidential term. But he remains a favorite to many bettors enamored by his good results often coming on strong Sundays after he was out of the running. After missing the cut at the Masters (distraught over the LIV business that helped him make more money on the PGA Tour?), he has registered three straight top-nines after his tie for ninth place at the RBC Canadian Open last week. But while Rahm has won five tournaments in the 2022-23 season, McIlroy has not won a tournament since October 2nd. Confidence seems to be an issue for him right now under the weight of heavy expectations — and that is not a good sign for someone who ranks 123rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. While the wider fairways will help, McIlroy’s wildness with his driver bodes for trouble this week. He ranks 186th in Driving Accuracy this season — and while his length Off-the-Tee usually makes up for this deficiency, the brutal Bermuda rough of up to four inches is a severe punishment for missing the fairway this week. McIlroy ranks 87th on the tour in Scrambling and 89th in Bogey Avoidance — so he may not be able to bail himself out if he gets in trouble. McIlory has only won one time in a tournament in California — and it was a match play event rather than a strokes play tournament. Take Rahm (7009) versus McIlroy (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

MONEY MANAGEMENT ADVICE: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

LONG SHOT BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+4500 at DraftKings) — and take Matsuyama (7044) versus Day (7043) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props.

THE SITUATION: The third major championship takes place week with the US Open hosted in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The tournament takes place on the North Course consisting of 7421 yards at a Par of 70. The course has three Par-5s, five Par-3s, and six Par-4s of 480 or more yards in length with three of those at least 505 yards. Despite the length of this George C. Thomas-designed course, big drivers may not be rewarded this week — the North Course at the LA Country Club plays like a links course with crafty shot-making that takes advantage of the changes of contours and elevations on the fairways being at a premium. The fairways are wider than a typical US Open — but missing the fairways puts the Bermuda grass rough into play that will be up to three or four inches in length. The course draws comparisons to Augusta National despite water not being in play. The greens consist of Bentgrass with the undulated putting surfaces averaging 6500 square feet in length and that measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Like the WM Phoenix Open, the crowd is expected to play a role this week.

REASONS TO BACK MATSUYAMA: Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +4500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Matsuyama is dealing with chronic neck issues — but at this price, we are getting value in a former Masters champion who is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Despite the neck, he has registered five-straight top-30 finishes so he seems to be managing. He has made the cut in six straight events with four top-20s in stroke play. He has not finished better than 16th place at the Memorial during this recent run which was his last event — but his win at the Masters was out of the blue so a step up in form now would match that performance. He was in contention after the first two rounds before a terrible Round Three on that Saturday. Matsuyama’s biggest weakness is his putting — but he does prefer Bentgrass which is the putting surface at Augusta National as well. He also won the Memorial Tournament in 2014 which features Bentgrass greens. Three of his top four putting efforts this season have been on the west coast. If he can hold steady with his putter, Matsuyama should contend given how good he is with his ball-striking. He ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks fourth in the field in Bogey Avoidance over his last 36 rounds. He is 13th in the field in Approach the Green over his last 20 rounds. He is sixth in Scrambling and eighth in Around-the-Green — so he can get himself out of trouble. Matsuyama ranks 14th in the field in Adjusted Scoring at major championships — and he is second in the field at Par 70 courses of 7400 or more yards. Finally, he has been consistently reliable at US Opens where he has three top-ten finishes including a second place in 2017 and a fourth place last year. Since 2010, five US Open winners came in with odds in the 40-1 to 80-1 range — so I would hate myself for days if I passed on Matsuyama at this price given the neck concerns.

Matsuyama is linked with Jason Day for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. While maybe not as adorable as Rickie Fowler is in the eyes of Jim Nantz, Day still is high up there given his success in the Obama years. The 2015 PGA Champion has not finished better than a tie for 38th place at a major championship since Joe Biden was sworn into office. After missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship last month, Day won the AT&T Byron Nelson the next week. He followed that triumph up by missing the cut at PGA Championship and then the Memorial Tournament. Admittedly, Day is playing better this season — but he remains inconsistent. He ranks 114th on the tour for 2022-23 in Proximity 175 to 200 yards from the hole — and that sets up to be a problem for him this week given the length of the course especially on the long Par 4s. Day is trotting out new irons this week — and like the horse whose trainer is adding blinkers for the Kentucky Derby, that is a red flag for me to be gambling with something new for a major event. Since a tie for eighth place at the 2016 US Open, Day has missed the cut twice and has not finished better than 21st in his last four US Open visits. This is his first US Open since 2021. Take Matsuyama (7044) versus Day (7043) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

MONEY MANAGEMENT ADVICE: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves north to Northwest Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open. The Oakdale Golf and Country Club hosts the 114th Canadian national championship for the first time. The event will take place across the nine-hole courses with seven holes taking place at the Wilf Homenuik house and two holes on the Stanley Thompson course for the front nine. The back nine takes place at the George Knudson course. This event will be a Par 72 tournament consisting of 7264 yards with three Par 5s and three Par 3s. The fairways are tree-lined and undulated. The bluegrass rough will be up to five inches or higher. The greens consist of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. 


Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +2000 at DraftKings. Lowry is in good form right now after following up a tie for 12th place at the PGA Championship with a tie for 16th place last week at the Memorial Tournament. He ranked seventh in the field that week by gaining +3.3 strokes in Approach the Green versus his competition making it the eighth straight tournament where he gained strokes against the field in that metric. He also gained +2 strokes versus the field Off-the-Tee making it the sixth straight tournament where gained strokes against his competition in that category. But most importantly, Lowry has been putting better. For the first time since last summer, he has gained strokes versus the field with his putter in two straight tournaments. The Irishman is so good with his irons that when he is not bleeding shots back with his blade, he becomes tough to beat. He ranks 16th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he is 15th on the tour in Proximity. He ranks 2nd in the field in Opportunities Gained — and he is fifth in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 11th in the field in Proximity from 175 to 200 yards and 14th in the field in Proximity from inside 100 yards with both those lengths likely to be tested this week. Additionally, Lowry ranks second in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring on courses featuring Bentgrass/Poa annua blend greens over the last two years — and he ranks second in the field in overperforming on those courses relative to his baseline numbers over that span. Lowry is well-versed in handily tree-lined fairway courses. Stanley Thompson designed this course as he did the St. George course that hosted the Canadian Open last year. St. George has a similar layout to the Wentworth course in England — and Lowry has seven top-15s in his 13 starts there capped with his first place showing there in the fall. The European players take this tournament seriously — Lowry finished in second place at the RBC Canadian Open in 2019 before a tenth-place finish last year. Lowry is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head props. Young is in a slump right now after missing the cut at the PGA Championship and then missing the cut last week at the Memorial Tournament. He had not finished better than a tie for 51st place in his last four tournaments since a tie for seventh place at the Masters in early April. Young is one of the longest drivers on the tour as he ranks third in Driving Distance — but that edge will not be as pronounced this week on this shorter course. With the smaller greens, chipping in wedge play around the green will be important which is not one of Young’s strengths. He ranks 140th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green while ranking 175th in Scrambling and 169th in Sand Save Percentage. Young also ranks 189th in Shots-Gained: Putting. This is his first trip to an RBC Canadian Open. Take Lowry (7139) versus Young (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves north to Northwest Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open. The Oakdale Golf and Country Club hosts the 114th Canadian national championship for the first time. The event will take place across the nine-hole courses with seven holes taking place at the Wilf Homenuik house and two holes on the Stanley Thompson course for the front nine. The back nine takes place at the George Knudson course. This event will be a Par 72 tournament consisting of 7264 yards with three Par 5s and three Par 3s. The fairways are tree-lined and undulated. The bluegrass rough will be up to five inches or higher. The greens consist of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. 



Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Adrian Meronk who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. The 29-year-old Polish professional thrives on the DP World Tour where he leads in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, ranks third in Greens-In-Regulation, and ranks 15th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for 40th place at the PGA Championship last month while gaining +4.7 strokes versus the field Off-the-Tee and +2.4 strokes versus the competition in Approach the Green. He finished tied for 21st place the previous week at the Korea Championship. In May, Meronk won the Italian Open which was his third victory on the DP World Tour in 12 months. His last tournament was in the Netherlands at the KLM Open where he finished tied for fifth place. Meronk ranks 45th in the world rankings — and what these four top-40 finishes demonstrate is that he can play well on diverse courses. At an event where none of the professionals have an edge in course history, Meronk’s flexibility on different types of tracks should help his chances. He ranks 11th in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Bentgrass/Poa annua greens in the last two years — and he ranks fourth in the field in overperformance relative to his baseline results on these courses. Meronk is linked with Alex Smalley in Round One head-to-head props. Smalley missed the cut last week at the Memorial — it was his fourth missed cut in his last seven tournaments. He did finish tied for 23rd place at the PGA Championship — but the Oakdale Golf and Country Club does not seem to fit his strengths. While he does rank 35th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, he falls to 66th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Smalley performs better on difficult courses like at Oak Hills for the PGA Championship — but he does not do as well at scoring fests that this event shapes up to be. Smalley ranks 151st on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage. Take Meronk (7125) versus Smalley (7126) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves north to Northwest Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open. The Oakdale Golf and Country Club hosts the 114th Canadian national championship for the first time. The event will take place across the nine-hole courses with seven holes taking place at the Wilf Homenuik house and two holes on the Stanley Thompson course for the front nine. The back nine takes place at the George Knudson course. This event will be a Par 72 tournament consisting of 7264 yards with three Par 5s and three Par 3s. The fairways are tree-lined and undulated. The bluegrass rough will be up to five inches or higher. The greens consist of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Justin Rose who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings. Rose followed up a tie for ninth place at the PGA Championship with a tie for 12th place two weeks ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has four straight top-25 finishes — and he ranks second in the field this week in his last 36 rounds by gaining +1.63 strokes per round against his competition. He has averaged +0.60 shots gained in Approach-the-Green this season which is his best mark since 2015. He ranks second in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Rose ranks 27th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he also ranks 30th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting and is one of the best with the blade in the field this week. He ranks seventh in the field in Adjusted Scoring when playing on courses with a Bentgrass/Poa annua blend putting surface in the last two years — and he is tenth in the field in overperformance in Adjusted Scoring versus his baseline numbers when on courses with a Bentgrass/Poa annua greens in the last two years. Rose is an 11-time winner on the PGA Tour including taking the title at Pebble Beach earlier this season. In his four starts at the RBC Canadian Open, he finished in fourth place in 2004 and then last year. Rose is linked with Tommy Fleetwood in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fleetwood saw his streak of nine straight made cuts snapped two weeks ago after missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Fleetwood tends to perform better at harder courses — but he is not as adept at putting up very low numbers. These Canadian Opens tend to be low-score events with the winning score in the -20 under-par range. Fleetwood ranks 79th on the PGA Tour for 2022-23 in Birdies or Better Percentage. Given the smaller greens on this shorter course, second shots will be critical (as always). Fleetwood ranks 37th on the tour on Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is only 162nd in Greens-In-Regulation. He is just 172nd this season in Proximity to the Hole. Wedge play also seems to be important this week — and Fleetwood is 132nd on the tour win Approach the Green from 100-125 yards away. He finished tied for sixth place in his lone trip to an RBC Canadian Open -- but he has yet to earn a win on the PGA Tour. Take Rose (7017) versus Fleetwood (7018) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props — and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7571 yards. This is the third event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 120 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The greens consistently rank in the top-ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.064 per round, the last five editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Rory McIlroy who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. I tend to find McIlroy is overrated with Jim Nantz fawning over a guy who has not won a major championship since 2014. But with his odds falling to +1400 after he disappointed his fans and bettors by missing the cut at the Masters, he is a rare overlay. McIlroy ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and when he is paying twice as much for a potential victory this week when compared to Scottie Scheffler at +650 or Jon Rahm at +750, this is the appropriate time to invest in him. He played well at the PGA Championship two weeks ago where he finished tied for 7th. He gained more than 10 shots versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and more than seven shots versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Ball-striking is critical this week given all the hazards and the small greens. Getting on the greens in regulation is the name of the game this week. The last three winners of this tournament led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. And while Shots-Gained: Approach the Green is typically 2.5 times more important than Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in determining the winner from week to week on the PGA Tour, the value in this skill rises to 3.5 times more important this week. McIlroy is tied for 12th on the tour in Par 5 Scoring — and the Par 5 holes at Muirfield Village Golf Club have been rated in the top-eight most difficult on the tour in the last three seasons. McIlroy thrives on difficult courses — he ranks second in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring on “tough courses”. He comes into this week with little fanfare — so perhaps being under the radar will help him earn his first win on the tour since the CJ Cup last October. Playing with Michael Block on the final round of the PGA Championship may have mellowed him out a bit as well after experiencing the groundswell of support for the Cinderella story that Block received. Previous experience at this course has played a big role in future success — and McIlroy has a great track record at Muirfield Village. In 11 past appearances, McIlroy has four top-10 finishes and seven top-20s overall. McIlroy is linked with Xander Schauffele in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. In theory, the wider fairways should help Schauffele since he ranks 119th in Driving Accuracy. Of course, if he misses the fairway, he will still be in trouble despite his being one of the best professionals in the world with his irons. But it is his play wedges that worry me for this tournament which is probably the weakest part of his game. Schauffele ranks 38th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks 45th on the tour in Sand Save Percentage — and that is an ominous sign when facing the most difficult sand traps on the tour this week. Schauffele has good — but not great — results at this tournament with four made cuts in his five trips with four top-20s. But Schauffele has not finished better than a tie for 11th place at this event — and McIlroy has two top-five results here. Take McIlroy (7007) versus Schauffele (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props — and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7571 yards. This is the third event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 120 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The greens consistently rank in the top-ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.064 per round, the last five editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +2500 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Since a tie for 34th place at the Masters, Hatton has rattled off four-straight top-19 or better finished with two top-five results. He comes off a tie for 15th place at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. He has seven top-20 finishes in his last 11 tournaments while averaging +6 Shots-Gained versus the field in Tee-to-Green. Hatton ranks sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and the last three winners at this event led the field in that metric. In his last three tournaments, he has averaged +3.5 Strokes-Gained versus the field in Approach the Green and +1.7 Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Hatton ranks 10th on the tour in Approach the Green. He tends to do well on difficult courses that are not birdy tests. This is just the second time he has played in this event — but he did finish in a toe for 33rd place in 2019. Hatton is linked with Xander Schauffele in Round One head-to-head props. Hatton is playing better than Schauffele right now. In the last nine major championships or elevated events on the PGA Tour, Hatton is averaging +1.92 Shots-Gained: Total versus the field. Schauffele is averaging +1.71 Shots-Gained: Total versus the field in his last nine major championships and elevated events. In theory, the wider fairways should help Schauffele since he ranks 119th in Driving Accuracy. Of course, if he misses the fairway, he will still be in trouble despite his being one of the best professionals in the world with his irons. But it is his play wedges that worry me for this tournament which is probably the weakest part of his game. Schauffele ranks 38th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks 45th on the tour in Sand Save Percentage — and that is an ominous sign when facing the most difficult sand traps on the tour this week. Schauffele has good — but not great — results at this tournament with four made cuts in his five trips with four top-20s. Take Hatton (7133) versus Schauffele (7134) in Round One head-to-head props — and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7571 yards. This is the third event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 120 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The greens consistently rank in the top-ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.064 per round, the last five editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +3500 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Matsuyama has dealt with some neck and back issues — but he seems to have overcome these physical setbacks. Since a tie for fifth place at THE Players Championship in March, he has registered six straight top-31 results. Despite settling for 29th place at the PGA Championship, he put up great underlying numbers. He gained +1.9 strokes Off-the-Tee, another +4.1 strokes in Approach the Green, and +4.5 strokes Around the Green. What held Matsuyama back at Oak Hills two weeks ago was his putting — but he prefers Bentgrass putting surfaces and has putted well here in the past. Not only did Matsuyama win the 2014 edition of this tournament, he has 5th place, 6th place, and 13th place results in his seven trips. This course fits his skill sets since he is so good with his irons. He gained +5.1 strokes in the approach in his previous start at the Bryon Nelson — and 13 of the last 15 winners of this tournament finished in the top ten in that metric for the week and five of the top six finishers last year were in the top-ten in approach. Matsuyama also ranks 12th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and the last five winners of this tournament finished first or second in that category for the week. Matsuyama is linked with Jordan Spieth in Round One head-to-head props. Spieth may be dealing with a left wrist injury as he has missed the cut in two of his last three events after not playing the weekend last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. After not making the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, he settled for a tie for 29th place at the PGA Championship. Spieth is considered one of the best ball strikers on the tour — but the numbers are not bearing that out this season. He ranks just 31st and 32nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is 78th in Bogey Avoidance. Furthermore, Spieth is just 65th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He has seven  top-20s in his ten appearances at Muirfield Village but his form is off entering June. Take Matsuyama (7132) versus Spieth (7131) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1400 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Morikawa has not won an event since the British Open in 2021. At the time, he looked like he would be winning plenty of first-place trophies with that being his fourth victory in two years. Despite the dry spell, he is lurking — and he will be motivated to take home a first-place finish given this dry spell. He settled for 26th place at the PGA Championship last week — although his gaining of four strokes versus the field in the Approach is promising. Morikawa does still have four top-15 finishes and four top-10s in 2023. He is an intriguing choice this week because he is a great fit with this golf course. He lost in a playoff here in 2020 in a week where he gained +3.2 strokes versus the field in putting. The blade tends to hold him back — so if he is gaining strokes on the field with his putter again, he will be tough to beat. He also has a 14th place and a tie for 40th place in his three trips to the Colonial Country Club. He has averaged a gain of +6.7 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in those three events. Morikawa’s elite Ball-Striking makes him a threat to win. He ranks tied for 10th on the tour in Ball-Striking this season — and he has gained +4 stroke every the field in Ball-Striking in his last five tournaments. In his last 24 rounds, Morikawa is third in the field in Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fifth in the field in his last 24 rounds when playing at this tournament. Morikawa also ranks seventh in the field in Adjusted Scoring in the last two years on tracks featuring Bentgrass greens. Morikawa is linked with Sungjae Im in Round One head-to-head props. Im was a strong fade for me last week with him flying back to the US after winning a tournament in Korea the week before. Im missed the cut at the PGA Championship — and I still don’t like him this week as he continues his whirlwind globetrotting scheduling without a break. Im lost three strokes versus the field in the Approach which is usually one of the best aspects of his game. Im has two top-15 finishes at this tournament — but he also has missed two cuts and the more prestigious Memorial Tournament is next weekend. Like Morikawa, Im’s strength is not with his putter — he ranks 66th in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. His iron play leaves room for improvement right now as he ranks 69th in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. This could become an issue on those short Par 4s — Im ranks 109th on the tour for 2022-23 in Proximity from 100 to 125 yards from the green. Take Morikawa (7147) versus Im (7148) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week to week.

The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Cam Davis who is listed at +3500 to win this event. Davis missed five straight cuts earlier this year during a span when he was dealing with health issues. He broke out of that slump with a tie for sixth place at THE Players Championship. He has two more top sevens since with a seventh place at the RBC Heritage and then a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship last week. He comes into this week with confidence after a fourth round of 65. He was fourth last week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and that level of ball striking will help this week. Davis ranks 20th on the tour in Driving Distance — but he combines that length with accuracy as he ranks eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks fifth in the field this week Off-the-Tee in his last 36 rounds. Davis has also gained +2.0 strokes versus the field Off-the-Tee in five straight tournaments. He comes off a tie for seventh place at this tournament last year in his third trip to this event. Davis is linked with Max Homa in Round One head-to-head props. Homa was on a good run to begin 2023 but he has only one top 40 in his last five tournaments. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and the doubles event at the Zurich Classic before showing promise again with a tie for eighth place at the Wells Fargo Championship three weeks ago. But Homa was a disappointment once again at a major championship with a tie for 55th place at the PGA Championship last week. Homa has a 23rd and 27th place in four professional trips to the Colonial Country Club — but he has also missed the cut twice. Take Davis (7144) versus Homa (7143) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week to week.

The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Justin Rose who is listed at +2500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. I loved Rose when he was listed at +3000 on Monday — but I still like his value at +2500 so I will continue to endorse him. Rose thrives on short positional tracks like this. He won this event in 2018 with a tournament record 20-under par. He finished tied for third place in 2020 and then had a tie for 20th place in 2021. Rose is in great form right now after a tie for ninth place last week at the PGA Championship. He gained +4.6 strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green last week -- and he gained +2.54 strokes on Sunday with his irons. Rose has made the cut in five straight tournaments in a streak started by a tie for sixth place at THE Players Championship — and he took first place at another short positional track at Pebble Beach earlier this year. The veteran ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and he has gained +1.61 strokes versus the field in his last 36 rounds. Rose is not long off the tee — but he ranks ninth in Good Drives Gained and 38th in Driving Accuracy which will help him attack these shorter Par 4s. Rose is also an outstanding putter who ranks 5th in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bentgrass greens. Eighth of the last ten winners of this tournament finished in the top eight in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week. Rose also ranks ninth in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Bentgrass greens in the last two years. Rose is linked with Sam Burns in Round One head-to-head matchups. Burns is given respect by the books and the betting market as the defending champion — but he is not in good form with two missed cuts at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship and then the PGA Championship last week. Burns is a great putter — but his ball-striking skills are waning this season. He ranks just 130th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 173rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green for the 2022-23 season. Overall, Burns ranks 88th in the field in Ball-Striking as measured by Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green.  Three of the last seven winners of this event led the field in Ball-Striking — and six of the last seven winners finished in the top seven in that metric. Take Rose (7114) versus Burns (7113) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at DraftKings at +2000. With Scottie Scheffler the favorite at +700 and Jon Rahm just behind him at +750, those are underlay values at such short prices. We were on Rahm for the Masters — and I faded all the LIV golfers concerned about the lack of rigorous competition (with the guaranteed money) and the 54-hole tournaments. Koepka kept me nervous all weekend leading the tournament after each round before succumbing to the brutal Sunday schedule where he played about a third of the tournament given rain delays and the surge by Rahm. He was given no favors having to play more than 27 holes on that Sunday. But it was clear that he is as healthy as he has been in years. And the lack of being tested from week to week on the LIV Tour is not a concern for me when it comes to Koepka since he usually treated the non-majors on the PGA Tour as his practice rounds. Koepka has already won four major championships including two PGA Championships. He has five top-fives at PGA Championship events and six top-13s in his eight competitions overall. He seems to be a great fit for this course as well. His PGA Championship at Beth Page was another brutal Par 70 course — and his 2019 US Open victory at Shinnecock was another long Par 70 course. Koepka ranks second in the field in scoring at difficult Par 70 courses consisting of 7200 or more yards. Koepka is linked with Jason Day for head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Day comes off his first win on the PGA Tour since 2018 at the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge last week. While his career is amid a resurgence this year, it may be difficult for him to not suffer an emotional letdown after the nice payday. I also don’t always love golfers who come off an intense weekend of competition the previous week given the physical and emotional toll that it can take. Day is playing better — he ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total for the 2022-23 season. But I still consider overvalued in this spot. He has not proven himself in recent history (post the Obama era) against elite competition. He finished tied for 39th at the Masters last month after a tie for 19th place at THE Players Championship. While Day is long off the tee and has a balanced game, his precision with his long irons could give him trouble this week. He ranks 127th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards — and he ranks 83rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 yards and farther. Day did win a PGA Championship in his career — but that was in 2015. His vertigo issues have tended to crop up at inopportune times since. Take Koepka (7015) versus Day (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props — and take the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Matthew Fitzpatrick who is listed at +3000 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick has taken his game to the next level after breaking through with his first win at a major championship by winning last year’s US Open. Fitzpatrick has demonstrated that he is one of the best in the world when playing on difficult courses. He has three top-10 finishes in his last four majors including a tie for 10th place at the Masters last month and a tie for fifth place at the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. One of the reasons why Fitzpatrick thrives on difficult tracks is his elite skills getting up and down. He led the PGA Tour in Scrambling last year while ranking seventh in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is a reliable putter who ranks 23rd in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. The weakness in his game has been his distance off the tee — but his improvements in that aspect of his game culminated in his US Open win last summer. He ranked 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee last year but just 70th in Driving Distance. While his Off-the-Tee rank has dropped to 34th this year (and the 2022-23 stats are still muddy with the season not halfway over yet), his Driving Distance rank has improved to 47th on the tour. Fitzpatrick also ranks fifth in the field in Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds — and that skill will help at a tournament where the books list eight or nine under par with the best odds of being the winning score. Fitzpatrick is in good form with a win at Harbour Town a month ago. And he is flying under the radar with eyes on other golfers — like the one I am about to mention. Fitzpatrick is linked with Tony Finau for head-to-head Tournament Matchups. The perpetual bridesmaid — Finau is one of the betting public favorites once again this week with his fans breathlessly thinking that this will finally be the week where he breaks through to win his first major. Finau is well-balanced — and the PGA Championship is often the tournament where the first major is won. And Finau has raised his level of play with four wins on the PGA Tour since last year’s British Open. But those were events that did not feature loaded competition — such as the Mexico Open three weeks ago where most of the top golfers took the week off. Finau usually shrinks in loaded fields with solid but not great results. After his tie for 26th place at the Masters last month, Finau has not finished in the top five in his last nine majors. Finau does have a top-five finish in each major — and he has two top-ten finishes in each major championship. But he has finished outside the top ten in 17 of his 25 major champion competitions — a 68% rate. Maybe he flipped the switch after the British Open last summer — and his 26th place at Augusta last month was an outlier? Well, he finished tied for 19th place at THE Players in March. The weakest part of Finau’s game is in getting up and down — he ranks 53rd this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. With the small greens, the pros are going to have to chip on to the green and occasionally get out of the sand. Take Fitzpatrick (7022) versus Finau (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props -- and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer per week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Hatton is in great form six top-five finishes worldwide including a tie for fifth place last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. He finished in second place at THE Players Championship in March. Hatton is looking for his first major championship — but he did finish tied for 13th at the PGA Championship last year. Hatton is lurking this season — he ranks third on the tour in the All-Around ranking. He is sixth in Adjusted Scoring and sixth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Hatton ranks 11th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he has the distance to handle this long course. There are 33 golfers in the field this week who average at least 305 yards off the tee — but only nine of those golfers also stay in the fairway at least 60% of the time in their last 50 rounds. Hatton is one of those nine pros. Hatton also ranks 22nd in Scrambing and 25th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he has a balanced skill set. Hatton is linked with Collin Morikawa for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Morikawa is an elite ball-striker — but the other aspects of his game are works in progress right now. Morikawa did finish in tenth place at the Masters. But he settled for a tie for 31st place at Harbour Town the next week. He has since missed the cut at the team competition at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans before missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago. His putting continues to hold him back — he ranks 169th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is now changing his grip back to his old one after experimenting with a different style with his blade — but that is not a good sign. In his last 24 rounds, Morikawa ranks in the bottom-25 in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting with Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 107th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green this year which bodes trouble with the small greens this week. Morikawa is not as strong on the longer courses either — he ranks 148th on the tour in Driving Distance. Take Hatton (7034) versus Morikawa (7033) in Tournament Matchup head-to-heap props — and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer per week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Seamus Power who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Power posted four top-25s early in 2023 but has been in a slump this spring. However, his tie for 18th place last week at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship was very encouraging as he gained strokes Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green, Around the Green, and Putting. Power thrives on easier courses. His two PGA Tour wins had him posting 21 under-par and 19 under-par scores. He ranks 23rd on the tour in Birdie or Better Average. He also ranks 26th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season — and he likes putting on Bentgrass. Power is also comfortable playing in windy conditions which could give him an edge this week. He finished tied for 9th place in 2021 at this tournament before a tie for 17th place last year — and he has averaged a score of 67.50 in those eight rounds. Power is linked with Maverick McNealy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McNealy dealt with an injury earlier this year that resulted in him withdrawing from two tournaments. He has recovered by making the cut in three of his last four events — but he has not finished better than tied for 36th in his last five tournaments. He last played two weeks ago at the PGA Mexico Open where he finished tied for 60th place. McNealy leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but that skill will not give him as big an edge this week on easier greens. McNealy is reliable in avoiding bogies — but that will not be enough this week. He ranks just 90th in Birdies or Better Percentage this season. He ranks 176th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and he is 145th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for 32nd place at this tournament last year. Take Power (7021) versus McNealy (7022) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-10 favorites is on Tom Hoge who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Hoge comes into this event rested after a 17th place at the doubles tournament at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans three weeks ago. After missing the cut in two straight events, that was an encouraging performance. Hoge did finish tied for 3rd place at THE Players Championship in March — and he won at Pebble Beach last year. Hoge leads the PGA Tour in 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is 2nd in the field in that metric in his last 24 rounds. Hoge also ranks 15th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this season. Hoge can put up a big number this week — he ranks in the top 30 in Par 3, Par 4, and Par 5 Scoring. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Par Breakers. And with three of the Par 3s consisting of 200 or more yards this week, he ranks 5th in the field in his last 24 rounds in Par 3 Scoring on holes of 200 or more yards. The TCU grad finished tied for 17th place with all four of his rounds in the 60s. Hoge opened this week at +4000 odds — but his price dropping down to +3500 technically has him inside the top-ten favorites now. I am still calling him a Long Shot for our investment purposes. Hoge is linked with Adam Hadwin in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hadwin missed the cut last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. He did finish in 2nd place at the Zurich Classic doubles tournament last month — but he has missed the cut in three of his last five and four of his last six individual tournaments. Hadwin is not long off the tee — he ranks 144th in Driving Distance for 2022-23 so he is not a great fit for TPC Craig Ranch. His lack of length off the tee contributes to his ranking 89th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. While he is usually a reliable ball-striker, he only ranks 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. His profile does not translate well for easier courses like this where low scores are expected. Hadwin ranks 73rd in Birdies or Better Percentage this season. That does not bode well at a tournament that had 2228 total birdies last year which was the most at any PGA Tour event since 1983. There were also 104 Eagles last year which was the second most on the tour since 1983. Hadwin missed the cut in his lone appearance at TPC Craig Ranch last year. Take Hoge (7026) versus Hadwin (7025) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend.

Our Best Bet on the golfer who has the best chance to win this event is on Tom Kim who is listed at +1700 at DraftKings. Kim was the first professional since Tiger Woods to win two PGA Tour events before the age of 21. Both those tournaments were scoring tests with Kim taking the Shriner’s Children Open in Las Vegas with a score of 24 under par before winning the Wyndham Championship with a score of 20 under — so he seems comfortable in birdies fests that this tournament has been at TPC Craig Ranch. Kim is working on increasing his distance off the tee — and he will benefit from the wide fairways. And while his putter can be a concern, this is one of the least challenging putting surfaces on the tour this week. After a red-hot fall, Kim has not registered a top-15 finish since the American Express in January. But he did finish tied for 16th place at the Masters — and he comes off an encouraging tie for 23rd place last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. He gained +11.36 strokes against the field last week including +9.0 shots from Tee-to-Green. Kim ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for 2022-23 — and he also ranks 11th in Greens-In-Regulation. Kim also ranks 5th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance this season — and of the top-15 finishers the last two seasons, 78% of them posted positive numbers in Bogey Avoidance in their last 24 rounds coming into this tournament. Kim also ranks 6th in the field in adjusted scoring over the last two years on driver-heavy courses. He finished tied for 17th place last year in his first year competing at this tournament — so the 20-year-old will have an edge in course experience this time around. Kim is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. I love Matsuyama as a golfer — and we have made money off him plenty of times over the years. But he withdrew from the Wells Fargo Championship last week to travel back to Japan for treatment. So not only is he dealing with an injury but he has traveled across the globe a couple of times in the last week. The PGA Championship is next weekend — and that major is the higher priority for Matsuyama (and pros like Scottie Scheffler who presents underlay value with his low return price of +380). Matsuyama is using this week as practice rounds for next week — and there is a decent chance he may pull out of the event if his neck still bothers him. He has not played since the Masters when he finished tied for 16th — so rust is also an issue for him if he plays all four rounds this week. Take Kim (7011) versus Matsuyama (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Cameron Young who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings. Young began the week priced at +2000 — so while his odds have shortened, I am still endorsing him as one of our three golfers to target this week. Since joining the tour, Young has registered ten top-five finishes in his 38 professional events. While he is still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, he has finished second place six times. Young is one of the longest drivers on the tour — he ranks third in Driving Distance. In his last eight tournaments, he has gained +9.08 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and those results have corresponded with three top-ten finishes. Young is also a good ball striker who is long with his irons. He ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks fifth in the field in Proximity to the hole from 200 yards or farther in his last 24 rounds and he ranks fifth in the field this week in Par 4 Scoring on holes from 450-500 yards in his last 24 rounds. He has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in six of his last eight events. Young did get professional experience at Quail Hollow at the President’s Cup last fall. His length should give him an edge this week. Young is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head props. Morikawa finished tenth at the Masters but then settled for a tie for 31st place at the RBC Heritage before missing the cut at the doubles event at the Zurich Classic two weeks ago. Quail Hollow is not a great fit for Morikawa’s skill set since he is not a big hitter off the tee. He ranks 147th on the tour in Driving Distance. He ranks 65th on the tour in the Approach from 200 yards or farther away. Putting is not Morikawa’s strong suit either — he ranks 140th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. The last three winners at Quail Hollow all finished in the top three for the week in putting. He does not have a course history edge on Young as his only trip here was for last year’s President’s Cup. Take Young (7138) versus Morikawa (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.     

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1800 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Success at this event requires effective second shots to avoid trouble and set up birdies or pars. Hovland is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 14th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. In his last seven starts, he has gained +44.82 strokes gained versus the field in Ball-Striking. He has gained strokes versus the field in Ball-Striking in 14 straight tournaments. He leads the field in All-Around Scoring — and ranks second overall on the tour in that metric. In his last 24 rounds, Hovland ranks second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, ninth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and seventh in Proximity to the hole from 200 yards or farther out. He also ranks ninth in the field in adjusted scoring when playing on difficult courses over the last two years. Hovland will have something to prove after a disappointing 59th place at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. But he has been quite consistent with his last missed cut at a non-major being 15 months ago. He has finished in the top ten in three of his last five events.  And in his previous visit to Quail Hollow, he finished tied for third place. Hovland is linked with Justin Thomas for Round One head-to-head props. Thomas won the PGA Championship here in 2017 — but he has settled for 21st place at the Wells Fargo here in 2018 and then 26th place in 2021. Thomas is not in good form this year. He missed the cut at the Masters — and then he finished tied for 25th place at the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head the next week in his most recent tournament. Thomas is off with his irons. While ranking 42nd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green is respectable, that is far below his elite standards. He ranks 174th in Approach from 200 yards or farther out from the green. Thomas is also struggling with his putter as he ranks 152nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. The last three winners at Quail Hollow ranked in the top three in putting for the week. Take Hovland (7136) versus Thomas (7135) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Hatton has registered three top-six finishes in his last eight tournaments on the PGA Tour headlined by a second-place finish at THE Players Championship in March. His elite ball-striking skills make him a threat on any given week. Hatton ranks ninth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks 12th in the Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 16th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He has played at Quail Hollow two other times — he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship and settled for 42nd place at the Wells Fargo in 2018. While those are not great results, that has helped us get a better number with him this week. Hatton is linked with Rickie Fowler for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fowler is enjoying one of his best seasons in years with a 17th-place or better finish in seven of his last eight events. He comes off a tie for 15th place at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago at Hilton Head. But Fowler seems to have a plateau as well since he has not finished better than 10th place in his last eight tournaments. Fowler has a long history at Quail Hollow although he missed the cut in his most recent visit in 2021. Of concern is his 192nd ranking in Approach from 200 yards or farther out for the 2022-23 season. Take Hatton (7028) versus Fowler (7027) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

After the doubles event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Nicolaj Hojgaard who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. The 22-year-old Dane has three professional victories worldwide but is looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour. His tied for 32nd place in the doubles event in New Orleans last week may look underwhelming at first glance — but he gained +7.6 strokes versus the field while his partner, Thorsjoan Olesen, lost -10.5 strokes versus the field. Hojgaard finished in second place at the Coralas Puntacana Championship in late March which featured Paspalum greens like the course this week. He led the field in Driving Distance and was tied for first in Greens-In-Regulation that week. Hojgaard leads the field this week in Driving Distance which should give him an edge this week. He is also a fine ball-striker — he gained +5.6 strokes in Approach the Green when finishing in 28th at the PGA Valero Open in early April. He has four top 13 finishes in his last seven events worldwide with two top-fives in his last four events worldwide. This is a star in the making — and he may have the talent and gravitas to take on Rahm this week. Hojgaard is linked with Aaron Rai in Round One head-to-head props. Rai was the first-round leader at this tournament last year — and he was the first-round leader at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. Frankly, I find Round One results to be pretty muddy from week to week. Rai settled for 24th place at this tournament last year — and he fell to a tie for 48th place at the RBC Heritage. Rai comes off a tie for 13th place at the team event in New Orleans last week. His best showing in 2023 was a tie for 19th place at THE Players Championship — but that was also his best result in individual play in his last 11 tournaments. He is not a big driver — he ranks 154th on the tour in Driving Distance. He ranks 64th on the tour in Approach the Green — and he is 62nd on the tour in Approaches from 200 or more yards from the green. He ranks 126th in Par 5 Scoring this season which is a bad sign this week since nine of the top 20 finishers in Par 5 Scoring then finished in the top 15 overall last year. Rai also ranks 86th in Bogey Avoidance this season — and that may be a problem when considering that the top 32 finishers at this tournament last year combined for only nine rounds over par. Take Hojgaard (7148) versus Rai (7147) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

After the doubles team event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Ben Martin who is listed at +6000 odds at DraftKings. Martin missed the cut last week at the team event in New Orleans — but he has made seven straight cuts on the PGA Tour in individual play. He has four top-15 finishes in his last seven tournaments including a tie for eighth place at the Corales Puntana Championship which featured Paspalum greens like at this course. Martin’s ball-striking is in great form right now — he has gained  +1.0 strokes versus the field in his last 36 rounds. Martin ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks fifth in the field this week in Opportunities Gained on approaches within 12 feet. He played but missed the cut at this tournament last year — but he is in much better form now and should benefit from that course experience. Martin is linked with Patton Kizzire in Round One head-to-head props. Kizzire missed the cut in five straight events earlier in the season — but he has now made five straight cuts after a tie for 26th place at the team event in New Orleans. But Kizzire is not an elite ball striker. He ranks 150th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 141st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Kizzire also ranks 151st on the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and — and that may be a problem when considering that the top 32 finishers at this tournament last year combined for only nine rounds over par. Kizzire did not play at this tournament last year which gives Martin an additional edge. Take Martin (7144) versus Rai (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

After the doubles event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Best Bet on the golfer who is most likely to win this event is Wyndham Clark who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Rahm is the short favorite at +260 at DraftKings — but that is an underlay in terms of value, so I am passing on our Masters' winner out of principle. Since 2019, there have been 23 golfers on the PGA Tour priced at +700 or shorter (excluding the PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta which uses staggered scores to begin that final playoff event of the season). Only three of those short favorites went on to win the tournament — and their average finish was 22.4. I prefer Clark who is hungry for his first win on the PGA Tour. The 29-year-old comes in this event in great form after a third-place finish at the Zurich Classic doubles event in New Orleans last week where he teams with Beau Hossler. With a fifth place at the Valspar Championship and a sixth-place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship, Clark has three top-six finishes in three of his last four tournaments. He has made the cut in 14 straight tournaments. And what is intriguing about that finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship was that course also consisted of the Paspalum greens that are common in Mexico and the Caribbean. Clark is 11th on the tour in Driving Distance — so he should have an advantage off the tee this week. He ranks 14th on the tour in Par 5 Scoring — and nine of the top twenty players in Par 5 Scoring last year at this tournament finished in the top 15 overall. Clark is also good with his irons — he ranks fourth in the field in his last 24 rounds and fifth in the field in the last 36 rounds in Ball-Striking. He also ranks fourth in the field in Opportunities Gained within 15 feet of the hole in the last two years. Clark is margin his debut at this tournament — but course history is not a significant factor in just the second year on the tour for this event. I think it speaks volumes that Clark chose to participate — it suggests he thinks this is an event he can win. Clark is linked with Tony Finau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Finau finished in second place at this event last year after a closing round of 63 — and he is now the second shortest favorite at +800 odds to win the tournament. I consider Finau one of the most overrated professionals on the tour. He did win three events in the second half of the summer tour last year — and they were against weaker fields like this. But Finau is not in great form right now. He has lost strokes off-the-tee in four straight events — and he has lost 5.32 strokes versus the field in putting in those last four tournaments. After finishing tied for 26th place at the Masters, he settled for a tie for 31st place at the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head the next week. Finau has a high floor — but he continues to disappoint those who expect a big ceiling. Take Clark (7004) versus Finau (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced not higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Im settled for a tie for 16th last week at the Masters which was his fourth straight top-21 or better finish on the tour including a tie for sixth place at the Players Championship. Im is a workhorse who engages in one of the busiest schedules on the tour — so there should not be a hangover from competing at the Masters last week. Im is solid across the board with all his clubs although distance off the tee is not his strongest suit since his 297.5-yardage average with his driver is only +0.4 yards above the PGA Tour average. A shorter course like Harbour Town plays into Im’s biggest strengths. Im thrives on courses with Bermuda grass. He ranks 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is fifth in the field this week in Shots-Gained on Pete Dye-designed coursed. Im also leads the PGA Tour in the Approach from 175 to 200 yards which is vital for this tournament. Last year, 26.2% of the iron shots were from that distance — an increase of more than 10% over the tour average. This is Im’s fifth trip to this tournament after posting a tie for 13th place and a tie for 21st place. He has gained +2.9 strokes per round versus the field Off-the-Tee in his four previous events here. Im is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head trips. Young comes off a tie for seventh place at the Masters last week — and he may be primed for a letdown after a second-place finish two weeks ago at the World Golf Championships Match Play event. But Young did not finish better in tenth place in his previous seven events before the last two tournaments. One of Young’s biggest strengths is Off-the-Tee as he ranks third on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance — but this is not the course that he can use that skill to his advantage. Granted, Young struggles with his putter — he ranks 183rd in Shots-Gained: Putting -- but the smaller greens probably helps to neutralize this weakness in his game. My bigger concern for Young is his play Around the Green where he ranks 142nd on the tour. The flip side problem with the smaller greens is that it is more challenging to reach the Greens-In-Regulation. Seven of the last ten winners of this event finished in the top ten for the week in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green which demonstrates the importance of this skill at this tournament. Young did finish for a tie for third place in his debut here last year after opening the tournament with a round of 63 — but I do not expect a similarly hot start for the second-year professional after being in contention at Augusta National last week. Play Im (7140) versus Young (7139) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Im at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week.

Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this event is on Patrick Cantlay who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. I am looking for pros who are not likely to suffer hangovers from playing at the Masters last week — and given Cantlay’s underwhelming success at major championships, this is a week for him to step up with the pressure diminished a bit. Cantlay was in contention going into Sunday last week — but his putter let him down as he settled for a tie for 14th place. The smaller greens this week neutralize players coming in at a disadvantage with their blades. Cantlay was great with his irons last week as he gained nearly 6.0 shots versus the field in Approach-the-Green. Seven of the last nine winners of this tournament finished in the top ten for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Cantlay has now finished in the top-19 in five straight tour events headlined by a third-place finish at the Genesis Invitational — so he is close. Cantlay ranks fourth on the tour for ’22-23 in Greens In Regulation and sixth in Shots-Gained: Total. He is fourth on the tour in Ball-Striking — and he is second on tour by gaining +20 strokes in Ball-Striking versus the field in his last 20 rounds. Cantlay also ranks sixth in the field in the last two years in adjusted scoring on courses that require less than driver off the tee. Cantlay has a great track record at Harbour Town. He has finished in the top seven in four of his five trips including a tie for third place in 2017 and 2019 and second place last year after losing in a playoff to Jordan Spieth. Cantlay is well-versed in playing well at this event the week after the Masters. Cantlay is matched with Xander Schauffele in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Schauffele comes off a tie for 10th place at the Masters last week — but there are still some problems in his game that are holding him back. Schauffele is slumping with his accuracy off the tee and with his wedge play. He currently ranks 124th on the tour in Driver Accuracy this season which is the primary reason he also ranks 125th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. This is the wrong course to be inaccurate off the tee. Schauffele also ranks 126th in Approaches from 200 yards or farther away from the hole — and he ranks 196th in Approaches from 125 to 150 yards. He has not had great success at this event with zero top-30 finishes in his three previous trips. Take Cantlay (7009) versus Schauffele (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +3000 at DraftKings. Lowry splits his time between the PGA Tour and the European Tour — and he regularly competes at the RBC Heritage the week after the Masters. He had a good week at Augusta National dealing with the elements as he finished tied for 16th place. Wind is expected for the weekend at Hilton Head — and he is one of the best players in the world when dealing with the wind. Lowry has three top-20 finishes in his last six events on the PGA Tour. He is playing well — he has finished in the top 10% in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in four of his last five tournaments. Lowry’s putter is letting him down with some bad luck — but the smaller greens should neutralize this issue as of late. Lowry leads the field in Shots-Gained on Pete Dye-designed courses in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 12th in the field in Adjusted Scoring on courses requiring less than driver in the last two years. Lowry has three top-ten finishes in his five trips to this tournament. He has gained shots versus the field with his putter in four of those events — and he has gained more than 11 strokes versus the field with his putter overall in those five tournaments. Lowry is linked with Xander Schauffele for Round One head-to-head matchups. Schauffele comes off a tie for 10th place at the Masters last week — but there are still some problems in his game that are holding him back. Schauffele is slumping with his accuracy off the tee and with his wedge play. He currently ranks 124th on the tour in Driver Accuracy this season which is the primary reason he also ranks 125th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. This is the wrong course to be inaccurate off the tee. Schauffele also ranks 126th in Approaches from 200 yards or farther away from the hole — and he ranks 196th in Approaches from 125 to 150 yards. He has not had great success at this event with zero top-30 finishes in his three previous trips. Take Lowry (7110) versus Schauffele (7109) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Lowry at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.