Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (676) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (675) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.   Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn nailed 10 of their 25 shots (40%) of their shots from behind the arc on Saturday en route to a 50% shooting effort overall. Connecticut made 51.7% of their shots in the Elite Eight against Illinois which was the fourth time in their last five games where they shot at least 50% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after shooting 50% or better from the field in two or more games in a row. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. UConn has won all five of their games by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with one day or less of rest. UConn has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. And while the Boilermakers are outscoring their opponents by +14.1 Points-Per-Game, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have all failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after winning five or more games in a row. If there is one area that particularly concerns me about the Boilermakers is their propensity to get sloppy with the basketball. After committing 16 turnovers against the Wolfpack, Purdue is turning the ball over in 17.8% of their possessions when playing on a neutral court, ranking 187th in the nation. I also think there is a big edge in coaching tonight. I think Matt Painter is fine for Purdue — but Dan Hurley is simply at the top of his game right now with the rare mix of combining work ethic with being the top tactician in the game. His teams have always been very good on the defensive end of the court — but he has been tremendous in raising the level of play when his team has the basketball with very tight schemes and formations.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court as a favorite from 6.5 to 12 points. 10* CBB Purdue-Connecticut TBS-TV Special with the Connecticut Huskies (676) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (675). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (672) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (671) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 77-52 victory against Illinois as an 8-point favorite in their Elite Eight contest last Saturday. Alabama (25-11) has won four games in a row with their 89-82 victory against Clemson as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Even  with their Final Four run, Alabama only ranks 46th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games which is far below their ranking of 14th on the season overall. For comparisons sake, North Carolina State ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games which encompasses their run to win the ACC Tournament. The fundamental problem the Crimson Tide have tonight is their porous defense. They rank 189th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. When playing away from home, their defense ranks 175th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and the +9.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions they give up when away from home is the eighth worst disparity in the nation. Alabama has given up 87 and 82 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after allowing 80 or more points in two roomer games in a row. Both those games finished Over the Total — and the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after playing two or more games Over the Total. UConn has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Huskies have not allowed more than 58 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 65 points in four or more games in a row. And in their last 21 games as a double-digit favorite, UConn has covered the point spread 14 times.

FINAL TAKE: UConn has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in the Big Dance — and they have ten games in a row in the NCAA Tournament by 13 or more points. 10* CBB Alabama-Connecticut TBS-TV Special with the  Connecticut Huskies (672) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.         

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament has included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they have probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. I expect the bubble to burst tonight — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run has been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo is not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns has thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey does not need to do that — he’s just going to stand there and raise his arms. He doesn’t even draw fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns can attempt to attack the rim — and Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. The Wolfpack face an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum is a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he uses Burns to try to defend him, he risks getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men have fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue has played this season. Burns is too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he is spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue plays the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey will have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranks third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he is on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams have attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And while they have won 10 of their last 11 games with their lone setback being against Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference title game that kept them from making the NCAA Tournament (despite 28 wins at the time), they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Indiana State does sacrifice defense for their explosive offense most of the time — but there is one area that head coach Josh Schertz has his team focus on when playing on the defensive end of the court. The Sycamores limit their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots when they are playing away from home which is the 11th-best mark in the nation. Their defensive rebounding will be critical tonight since the Pirates rank 19th in the county by rebounding 35.6% of their missed shots. They held Utah to just five offensive rebounds on Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing their opponent to pull down more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Indiana State will win this game with their innovative offense under Schertz. They play at the 26th fastest pace in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession. The Sycamores lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9% — and they lead the nation by making 62.6% of their shots inside the arc. They fall all the way down 11th in the country with their 38.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they rank sixth in the nation by taking 49.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by the bespectacled Robbie Avila, they have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last eleven games. Seton Hall wants to slow this game down and engage in some bully-ball — but the spacing that the Sycamores engage in on offense takes away their opponent's ability to muck things up in the lane. The Pirates only have a 47.5% effective field goal percentage when on the road which ranks 264th in the nation. If they cannot get second chance opportunities, they will struggle to score points. As it is, they rank only 112th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They do not force turnovers to increase their potential scoring opportunities either — they rank 130th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in seven days.  

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in tournament action — and the Sycamores have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored. While I think the “home court” edge for Indiana State is overplayed a bit since they are playing on a neutral court that both teams just played on, it certainly does not hurt our cause that the crowd will be mostly cheering on the home state Sycamores. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (664) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (663) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES MINUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall comes into this game with momentum after beating their last two opponents in the NIT by 38 combined points. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. They were one of the three teams this season to beat UConn — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. They should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities against this Bulldogs team that struggles to protect their defensive glass. Seton Hall pulls down 35.6% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the nation. Georgia allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the country. The Bulldogs have pulled off two straight upset victories in this tournament to reach the semifinals. The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing a game on the road where both teams scored 75 or more points. They ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently rank 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Another problem they are likely to experience tonight is they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 27.3% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the nation. They also only force turnovers in 16.2% of their opponent's possessions, ranking 240th.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. 8* CBB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Seton Hall Pirates (664) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (663). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke advanced despite making only 40.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. The Wolfpack make 45.1% of their shots — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the second time in three days. On the road, the Blue Devils are scoring +2.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. Duke has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games in March. And while NC State is outscoring their opponents by +4.1 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. NC State played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting. Marquette scored at just an 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate despite ranking 21st in the nation by scoring at an adjusted 1.18 PPP rate. Some of that was just bad shooting luck for the Golden Eagles who could not hit the side of a barn from outside as they only made 4 of 31 shots from behind the arc despite getting tons of open looks. The Wolfpack’s opponents in the Big Dance are making only 23 of their 97 shots from behind the arc. ACC opponents made 36.2% of their 3s against NC State — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding the 23.7% shooting percentage of the Wolfpack’s opponents in this tournament. Of concern for NC State is that they only scored at a 0.97 PPG rate on Friday — and they missed six of their 12 free throws. The Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. They held Marquette to only 24 points in the first half — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games (with six upset victories in that run), NC State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.                                                                                   

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (656) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (655) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (32-4) has won nine of their last ten games after their 80-68 victory against Gonzaga as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Tennessee (27-8) has won ten of their last 12 games with their 82-75 victory against Creighton as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue made 57.1% of their shots including 45% of their 3-pointers to overwhelm the Bulldogs on Friday. Gonzaga did make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in the Boilermakers' last 14 contests. Purdue is making 53.6% of their shots in this Big Dance including 43.3% of their shots from behind the arc. They also own a +55 net rebounding edge in their three games in this tournament. The Boilermakers scored 106 points in their previous game against Utah State — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Purdue has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Volunteers are outscoring their opponents by +11.8 Points-Per-Game, the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or PPG. Tennessee has filed top over the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing for the second time in the last three days. I worry about this team given the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his first two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. Vescovi was the only player not to play on Friday against the Bluejays — he claims it was because of the flu, but it is suspicious that he could not take the floor at all in this single-elimination tournament. His confidence could be shot. The Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of his last 21 coached games in the NCAA Tournament going back to 2010 during his time with Texas and now the Volunteers. Even worse, when his team was not a double-digit favorite in those games in the Big Dance, his teams failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those 16 contests. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (656) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (654) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (653) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama (24-11) has won three games in a row after their 89-87 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Clemson (24-11) has pulled off their second-straight upset victory in the Big Dance with their 77-72 upset win against Arizona as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Alabama should build off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. They trailed at halftime by a 54-46 score before holding the Tar Heels to only seven points in the first ten minutes of the second half. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 45 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. Alabama makes 36.8% of their 3-point shots — and the Tigers are vulnerable to 3-point shooting teams since their opponents take 40.6% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road, ranking 286th in the nation. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 9 of their 12 games this season when the Total is set at 160 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. Clemson made 49.2% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Tigers are due a visit from the Regression Gods after their three opponents in the Big Dance have missed 58 of their 75 shots from behind the arc. Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing their second game on the road in the last three days. On the road, the Tigers are scoring -2.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson makes 46.8% of their shots while holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting — but the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who make at least 46.8% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Alabama Crimson Tide (654) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (645) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (646) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (26-8) has won five of their last seven games after their 93-55 victory against James Madison as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (32-4) has won 13 of their last 14 games after their 100-95 victory in overtime against Texas A&M as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: Duke nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc against the Dukes — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making 50% or more of the 3-pointers in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their previous game. The Blue Devils opened their Big Dance with a 64-47 win against Vermont as a 12.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorites. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have scored at least 86 points in both their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Houston is an elite defensive team — but getting to play them away from the Fertitta Center helps a lot. The Cougars give up +13.1 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season. 8* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (645) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (27-7) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 89-68 victory against Kansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (31-4) has won eight of their last nine games after their 106-67 win against Utah State as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue exorcised some of their demons last week after Fairleigh Dickinson knocked them off in the Round of 64 last year despite being a one seed. The Boilermakers had an easy time of it in a 78-50 victory against Grambling State before their 39-point win against the Aggies over the weekend. But this remains a program that has not advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2019 — so nerves may play a role for this team that has been National Championship or bust ambitions all season. Purdue made 55.9% of their shots against Utah State which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Aggies to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have beaten six teams this season by 30 or more points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 5 next contests going into tonight’s showdown. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points. Since getting outrebounded by Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, Purdue has outrebounded their next three opponents by at least 14 boards. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after outrebounding two straight opponents by ten or more boards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after outrebounding three straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. Away from home, Purdue scores -7.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions which ranks 337th in the nation in the worst drop-off from the home offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting — and the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower. And while Gonzaga outscores their opponents by +16.2 Points-Per-Game, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after 15 games into the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. There is a national perception that this is a down year for head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs — but this is a better team since Few inserted Ben Gregg into the starting lineup in mid-January. The 6’10 big man makes 38.6% of his 3-pointers — his ability to play on the perimeter opens up space for superstar point guard Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike to operate their pick-and-rolls with plenty of room. Gonzaga ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games led by a nearly unstoppable offense that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency during that span. They lead the nation in their last ten games with an effective field goal percentage of 61.5% -- leading the nation with a 44.2% clip from behind the arc and ranking fourth with a 59.6% mark from inside the arc. The Bulldogs will slow down the Boilermakers' rebounding edge — they outrebound their opponents by +7.4 Rebounds-Per-Game while ranking 52nd in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots. On the road, Gonzaga ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. The Boilermakers make 49.0% of their shots — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 48% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of Purdue’s 73-63 victory against the Bulldogs in the Maui Invitational on November 20th. A few things from that game. First, Few had yet to insert Gregg into the starting lineup which unleashed the offensive attack. Second, Gonzaga neutralized the Boilermakers’ rebounding edge with both teams pulling down 38 boards. Third, Purdue’s Zach Edey was not called for a foul while Ike was in foul trouble all game with four personal fouls — that is not likely to happen again. Few has had a long time to consider how to adjust to the Boilermakers’ motion offense — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 road games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (636) minus points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (635) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-7) has won two straight games and ten of their last 11 contests after their 85-69 victory against Michigan State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Alabama (23-11) has won three of their last four games after their 72-61 victory against Grand Canyon as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Crytpo.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina should feed off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. They defeated Wagner by a 90-62 score in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits. Head coach Hubert Davis has this team playing outstanding defense — they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, the Tar Heels have been even better by allowing -1.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama held the Antelopes to just 32.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 19 contests. But the Crime Tide still allows +9.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — and that is the 354th worst discrepancy versus their home defensive metrics. Alabama benefited from playing two mid-major teams in Grand Canyon and Charleston in their first two games in the Big Dance. They lost four of their final six games in the SEC — and one of those victories required overtime against a mediocre Arkansas team. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 170 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 17 of their 28 games this season against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the North Carolina Tar Heels (636) minus points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (33-3) has won nine games in a row after their 75-58 victory against Northwestern as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Diego State (26-10) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 85-57 victory against Yale as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t always love laying double-digits but am willing to do it in this instance in this rematch of last year’s National Championship Game. UConn won that game by a 76-59 score — and while they may be even better this season, the Aztecs are not quite as good as that group was last year. While San Diego State ranked eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road last season, they fall to 22nd in that metric when playing away from home this season. The Aztecs give up +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road versus at home this season — and that is the 308th worst discrepancy in the nation. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. The Aztecs' offense is too one-dimensional as they rely too much on big man Jaedon LeDee (who was coming off the bench last year). Huskies head coach has a three-headed monster to slow down LeDee in starters Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban along with Samson Johnson coming off the bench. San Diego State did make 52.7% of their shots against Yale on Sunday but that was the best shooting effort in their last ten contests. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing for the third time in seven days. UConn’s three losses this season have either come from an ice-cold shooting performance or running into a team on fire from behind the arc. But San Diego State only makes 31.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Huskies have won three straight games by 16 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row by 15 or more points. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after not allowing more than 58 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: While San Diego State has revenge on their minds, don’t underestimate the motivation the Huskies have in this game as a measuring stick regarding how this year’s group compares to last year’s squad. UConn has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record after 15 games into the season. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617) in the Semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational. THE SITUATION: Seattle (21-14) has won two games in a row after their 71-57 victory against Evansville as a 9-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Fairfield (24-12) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 77-74 victory against Chicago State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is a solid team out of the Western Athletic Conference who beat Grand Canyon while losing a second game on the road against them in overtime. They also beat Louisiana Tech and lost in double overtime to Washington. Head coach Chris Victor has his team play very good defense — they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency off the strength of their half-court defense. They rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Stags live and die by the 3-point shot — but the Redhawks rank seventh in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 29.7% shooting from behind the arc. Seattle should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. On the road, they are scoring +7.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while Fairfield outscores their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game, Seattle has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Stags nailed 57.7% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. But Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. And while they have won nine of their last 11 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. The Stags are a good offensive team — but they struggle to stop their opponents on the other end of the court. Fairfield ranks 243rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The problems are with their interior defense. They allow their opponent to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 303rd in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots, ranking 268th in the nation. Seattle limits their opponents to 41.4% shooting — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. Fairfield had a 10-4 record when playing at home — but they rank 272nd in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games including all five of those circumstances this season.

FINAL TAKE: Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season — and the Redhawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games in a tournament setting. 25* CBB College Basketball Invitational Game of the Year with the playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847) in the second round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah (20-14) won for the second time in their last three games after their 84-75 victory against UC-Irvine as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (19-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 91-82 victory at home against Kansas State as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah ranks top-50 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have beaten six teams that made the NCAA Tournament: Saint Mary’s, BYU, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. They are particularly tough to beat at home where they enjoy an altitude edge in Provo — especially against teams from the east like Iowa. The Utes have a 15-2 record at home with an average winning margin of +16.5 Points-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to 38.7% shooting including a 31.5% mark from behind the arc that results in 67.9 PPG on their home court. They make 49.4% of their shots including 38.9% of their 3-pointers resulting in 84.4 PPG. They rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — and they enjoy the 24th biggest jump in that metric when compared to playing away from home. Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Iowa made 48.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They scored 78 points in their 12-point loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Hawkeyes rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they struggle on the other end of the court. They rank 151st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 188th in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Interior defense is a significant problem as they allow their home hosts to make 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games with the Total set in at 160 or higher, they have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: Utah outscores their opponents by +5.5 PPG — and Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB 2nd Round NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Grand Canyon Antelopes (839) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (840) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Grand Canyon (30-4) has won six games in a row after their 75-66 upset victory as a point underdog in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Alabama (22-11) has won two of their last three games after their 109-96 victory against Charleston as an 8.5-point favorite in their first game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Spokane Veterans Arena in Spokane, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTELOPES PLUS THE POINTS: Any concern that this Grand Canyon team was a paper tiger that benefited from an easy schedule out of the Western Athletic Conference got dismissed them dominating one of the best Saint Mary’s teams their legendary head coach Randy Bennett has had there in his tenure. The Antelopes are playing with house money now — and they should feed off their momentum tonight. Grand Canyon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Head coach Bryce Drew has a veteran team full of transfers who play in a style that makes them very dangerous against this Crimson Tide squad — and all these skills travel on the road. The Antelopes lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1% when playing away from home. They will challenge Alabama which loves to shoot 3s as they rank 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.4% shooting when playing on the road. They also rank fifth in the nation with an opponent’s shooting percentage of 44.8% inside the arc. Grand Canyon does some things to generate more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They rank 81st by pulling down 31.5% of their missed shots when on the road — and the Tide are vulnerable in this department as their opponents to pull down 32.3% of their missed shots in their seven games played on a neutral court, ranking 236th in the nation (and they rank 236th in defensive rebounding overall). Furthermore, the Antelopes lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions when playing away from home, ranking 21st in the nation. And the Antelopes' attacking style has them lead the nation in getting to the free throw line when playing on the road — and Alabama is a fouling machine that ranks 342nd in defensive foul rate. The Crimson Tide outscore their opponents by +9.8 Points-Per-Game — and Grand Canyon has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. Alabama is adored by the laptops — but their season stats include plenty of the empty calories that come from the luxury of the carefree launching of more and more 3s when bullying lesser opponents. The Crimson Tide made 60% of their shots against the Cougars on Friday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after making 60% or more of their shots. The problem with Alabama is that do not play defense - they rank 178th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. They give up +10.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the 355th worst discrepancy from their home defensive efficiency. Alabama has given up 80 or more points in eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 80 or more points in three or more games in a row. The Tide live by the three — but they die by relying too much on the 3 as well. They rank 19th in the nation by taking 49.1% of their shots from the field from behind the arc when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: The Antelopes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 10* CBB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Grand Canyon Antelopes (839) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (830) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (829) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Marquette (26-9) has won four of their last five games after their 87-69 victory against Western Kentucky as a 14.5-point favorite in their opening-round game in the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Colorado (26-10) has won two straight games as well as ten of their last 11 contests with their 102-100 victory against Florida as a 1-point favorite in their first game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Colorado made 63.0% of their shots on Friday — but still needed K.J. Simpson to nail a last-second game-winner to eke out their game with the Gators in a final score that looked more like a Miami Heat contest than a college basketball game. That was the best shooting performance in the Buffaloes’ last 30 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. And while Colorado made 6 of their 10 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-pointers. The Buffaloes have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less. Colorado struggled with the Florida press late in the game on Friday — they rank 254th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.1% of their possessions. Here comes the Golden Eagles who rank 20th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Marquette got Tyler Kolek back on Friday who was able to play 38 minutes while enjoying a strong second half en route to 18 points and 11 assists. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time on the road in three days.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 14 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and Marquette has covered the point spread in 8 of their 10 games after 15 games into this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Marquette Golden Eagles (830) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oregon (24-11) has won five games in a row after their 87-73 victory against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Creighton (24-9) has won four of their last five games after their 77-60 victory against Akron as a 12-point favorite in their first-round game on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Creighton played their best defensive game in their last 12 contests by holding the Zips to just 37.9% shooting. They also made 56.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But head coach Greg McDermott’s team is vulnerable because they tend to live by the three but die by the three. They take 48.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is the eighth most aggressive tactic in the nation. They rank 352nd in the percentage of points they generate from inside the arc or the free throw line. If Creighton’s 3-point shots are not falling, they don’t have a Plan B (outside of great defense). They do not crash the glass since they only pull down 25.8% of their missed shots, ranking 284th in the nation. They rank 351st in getting to the free-throw line for some easy points. They do not force turnovers as their opponents cough the ball up just 11.1%  of the time, ranking 361st. And they play at a slow pace by averaging 67.0 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 208th, so their style of play does not help the Regression Gods appear if they are not hitting their 35.6% clip from behind the arc. Creighton was hot on Thursday as they nailed 10 of their 17 shots from 3-point range for a 58.8% clip. But the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after making 55% or more of their shots including five of those seven occasions this season. When playing on their home court, Creighton makes 38.5% of their 3s — but when away from home, that clip drops to 34.6% which is only the 109th-best percentage in the nation. They score -10.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — and that is the 13th worst decline in the country. Additionally, the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Creighton has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Oregon is playing their best basketball of the season now that head coach Dana Altman has found the most successful style and identity for this team. Injuries have plagued the Ducks all season with four players suffering season-ending injuries. But after only playing one time before January 13th, their 6’11 big man N’Faly Dante is demonstrating his vast NBA potential. In his last five games, Dante is scoring 20.6 Points-Per-Game while pulling down 8.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and adding 2.8 Steals-Per-Game and 1.6 Blocks-Per-Game. He is likely the best player on the court tonight. And while Creighton averages 11 made 3s per game, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games this season against teams who make 8 or more 3s per game. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This matchup means a lot to Altman who was the head coach at Creighton for 16 years before taking the Oregon job in 2010. In Altman, we trust — he has a 16-6-1 ATS mark in the 23 games he has coached in the NCAA Tournament. 5* CBB Round of 32 Underdog of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:55 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (21-12) has lost four of their last six games after their 60-45 loss to Houston as an 11.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Utah State (27-6) had their six-game winning streak snapped in an 86-70 loss to San Diego State as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU shot a season-low 23.3% from the field in their loss to the Cougars who might be the best defensive team in the country. But head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to play tonight. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. And while they missed 18 of their 20 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to make at least 20% of their 3-pointers — including all four of those occasions this season. TCU has been resilient under Dixon’s guidance — they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss including eight of their previous 11 losses this season. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival including six of those nine occasions this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. Dixon has his team engage in a style of play that leads to success in single-elimination games because he emphasizes seizing extra possessions. The Horned Frogs rank 20th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They are also an above-average 3-point shooting team that makes 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. TCU scores +1.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road as opposed to being at home. And while the fact that they give up +3.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road is concerning, when looking at just their six games played on a neutral court, they allow -0.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions versus home and true road games — and those six contests include four games against NCAA Tournament teams. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a double-digit loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning 15 or more of their last 20 contests. I worry about this Aggies team in tournament settings because they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Under first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle, this team plays like his previous Montana State teams. They get to the free throw line — and they are an outstanding shooting team inside the arc where they rank tenth in the nation by making 57.1% of their shots. But they only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th in the nation. They do not create many second chances for themselves on the offensive glass as they pull down only 28.5% of their missed shots, ranking 192nd in the nation. And they force turnovers in only 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 223rd in the nation. On the road, they are scoring -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — so the old-school Bobby Knight style of play on offense does not travel well for them. And they do not play the same quality of defense as those Knight teams from the 1970s and 80s. Utah State ranks 67th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 303rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games in the postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 appearances in the NCAA Tournament. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games including five of their eight games this season under Sprinkle. TCU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against those teams when playing them 15 games into the season. This Horned Frogs team has high-profile wins against Houston and Baylor. Lastly, TCU ranks 296th in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s Luck Factor rankings based on his analytics while the Aggies rank 14th in that metric — so perhaps this is a game that the Regression Gods have circled. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Game of the Year with the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the James Madison Dukes (761) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (762) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: James Madison (761) rides a 13-game winning streak after their 91-71 victory against Arkansas State as a 5.5-point favorite back on March 11th in the Championship Game of the Sun Belt Conference. Wisconsin (22-13) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 93-87 loss to Illinois as a 4-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES PLUS THE POINTS: James Madison beat Michigan State in the Breslin Center to begin their season — and they are going to be a tough out for any team trying to snap their 13-game winning streak. The Dukes are a dangerous underdog because they do things to force additional possessions if their shots are not falling. They rank 40th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 19.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 79th in the nation by pulling down 32.0% of their missed shots. They make 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation. They only take 38% of their shots from 3-point land — but they may get more aggressive as an underdog against a Big Ten power in this contest. The Badgers are certainly vulnerable in this regard since they rank 345th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 37.4% of their 3-pointers. James Madison nailed a season-high 62.5% of their shots against the Red Wolves while holding them to just 35.6% shooting. I tend to expect an appearance from the Regression Gods after seeing outlier numbers like that but the Dukes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after nailing 60% or more of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they made at least 57% of their shots and held their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Badgers are a vulnerable favorite since they play at such a slow pace — they rank 358th in the nation by averaging 19.1 seconds per possession. On the road, Wisconsin scores -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — and they rank 207th in the nation in terms of their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Dukes have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the James Madison Dukes (761) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (762). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (734) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (733) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (23-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in an 82-59 loss to Houston as a 10.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament on Friday. North Carolina State (22-14) has won five games in a row after their 84-76 upset victory as a 10-point underdog against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS: Texas Tech only made 33.3% of their shots against the Cougars last week which was the worst shooting effort of their season. They also allowed Houston to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contest. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 15 or more points. Texas Tech should shoot the ball better tonight. They rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road fueled by their making 38.8% of their shots behind the arc which is fourth fourth-best shooting mark on the road. An encouraging part of the Red Raiders late in the season has been their ability to get to the free throw like. Despite averaging 20 free throw attempts per game, they have gotten to the charity stripe 24, 24, and 25 times in their last three games. Texas Tech has taken 14 and 10 more shots from the line in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after taking ten or more free throw attempts than their opponent in two straight games. And while the Red Raiders have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. North Carolina State made 54.9% of their shots in their upset win against North Carolina to win the ACC Tournament — and that was the best shooting effort in their last 28 games. They also held the Tar Heels to 37.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. After pulling off four straight upset victories last week in the ACC Tournament necessary for them to make the Big Dance, expect a visit from the Regression Gods now that they have had time to exhale. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Defense is an area of concern for the Wolfpack as they rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They are especially vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams like the Red Raiders as they rank 270th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.2% of their shots behind the arc when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have not covered the point spread in their last 3 games in the first round of a tournament (including last week as a favorite against Louisville in the ACC Tournament) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (734) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (733). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (738) plus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (737) in Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: South Carolina (26-7) was on a two-game winning streak before their 86-55 loss to Auburn as a 7.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last Friday. Oregon (23-11) rides a four-game winning streak after their 75-68 upset victory against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog to win the Pac-12 Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina is on upset alert perhaps overseeded by the tournament committee as a six-seed — but I don’t care about seeds, I care about point spreads. With the Gamecocks now getting points in many locations, the value rests with this otherwise solid team that has something to prove after getting crushed by 31 points in their last game. They made only 28.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort of their season. But South Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a straight-up loss to an SEC rival. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when playing for just the second time in seven days. And while their game with the Tigers finished Under the 144.5-point total, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Gamecocks were without Myles Stute against an Auburn but the wing’s hip injury has improved enough for him to take the court. South Carolina ranks 38th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They defeated Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all in true road games. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Oregon needed two straight upset victories to win the Pac-12 title after rallying from a double-digit deficit to Arizona in the semifinals before their upset win against the Buffaloes last Saturday. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 opponent. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Ducks rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home — but they only rank 88th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Oregon does not play effective defense in the half-court. They rank 213th and 260th in the nation when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their shots inside the arc and 36.0% of their 3-pointers. UCLA, Arizona, and Colorado combined to make only 17 of their 62 shots from behind the arc last week —  that 27.4% mark from 3-point range may speak more about those team’s ineffective shooting than it does about a sudden surge in the Ducks’ perimeter defense. Those three conference rivals did still convert 43 of their 83 shots inside the arc — and that 51.8% shooting percentage is right in the range of Oregon’s suspect interior defense for the season. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. South Carolina has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Don't Need te Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (738) plus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Boise State (22-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-66 loss to New Mexico in a pick ‘em match last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Colorado (24-10) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 75-68 upset loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the finals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado is a bit challenging to figure out as they played their best basketball of the season down the stretch. The Buffaloes did deal with some injuries this season with freshman phenom Cody Williams missing 13 games being the most impactful. He is back on the court again, although he may not be 100%. I appreciate the narrative that this team underperformed high preseason expectations — but they are playing at that level now that they are close to 100% again. But problems remain. For starters, Colorado played much better at home in Boulder where they usually have an advantage over their visitors given the high altitude. With a 16-1 record at home, they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when evaluating home court edges. Of note is their 42.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc which ranks fifth best in the nation for home teams. But when away from Boulder, the Buffaloes drop to 47th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and their statistical drop represents the 292nd biggest split in the nation. They allow +5.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions, ranking 321st in the country in the biggest rise in opponent scoring. Colorado is simply not a great defensive team away from home as they rank 91st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. On offense, the Buffaloes score -4.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road, ranking 284th in the nation with that drop in offensive efficiency. They make 35.8% of their 3-pointers on the road which still ranks 59th in the country — but that -6.9% drop represents the 325th worst loss of shooting effectiveness. They also turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. And while their game with the Ducks finished Over the 140-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Buffaloes have not been reliably resilient under head coach Tad Boyle after setbacks either. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games — so a letdown may be looming for this team. Boise State has been stewing to get back on the court after making only 29.4% of their shots against the Lobos in what was the worst shooting effort of their season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for the second time in eight days. They have converted at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after making at least 10 shots from distance in two or more games in a row. Boise State ranks 49th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home led by its defense that ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.0% 3-point shooting away from home. Overall, the Broncos rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.1% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State’s Leon Rice is one of the most underrated in the business — and he has led the Broncos to now three straight NCAA Tournaments. This is Colorado’s first trip to the Big Dance in three years. The public loves the Buffaloes tonight — and the fact that Mountain West Conference teams are 23-46-2 ATS in the Big Dance since 2006 (not sure if that counts Colorado State’s victory last night) is probably playing a role in that sentiment. Besides Colorado’s tournament inexperience, their best victory this season was likely against a Washington State team that ranks 42nd in the nation at KenPom despite playing in the Pac-12. Boise State played a top-30 schedule in the nation — and they have seven victories that all rate better than that using KenPom’s metrics: Saint Mary’s (#18th); San Diego State twice (#20th); New Mexico twice (#22nd); Colorado State (#30); Nevada (#34th). With the Buffaloes now laying -3 to even -3.5s, the strong value is with the battle-tested underdog. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (671) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (672) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Colorado State (24-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 74-61 loss to New Mexico as a 2.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday. Virginia (23-10) had won two games in a row before their 73-65 upset loss in overtime to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State only managed to make 34.3% of their shots in their loss to the Lobos which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. But the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Colorado State is a good defensive team that ranked 38th in the nation and third in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to 42.9% shooting away from home resulting in 69.7 PPG — and they give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Virginal has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. And while they have played three straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. On the road, the Cavaliers only make 40.5% of their shots resulting in 60.4 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.9 % and -3.2 PPG below their season averages. Their lack of secondary scoring threats will present a problem for them tonight. They rank 225th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But the bigger issue is the play of their defense. While they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they surrender +13.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games in the postseason.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of up to six points. 8* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado State Rams (671) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (673) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (674) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (18-14) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 77-71 loss to FAU as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. LSU (17-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 70-60 loss to Mississippi State as a 5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas only made 40.7% of their shots in the quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference tournament last week. The Mean Green have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. North Texas should be highly motivated tonight — not only are they the defending NIT champions from last season but they can make a statement by defeating a power five conference opponent in their building. The Mean Green’s defense travels — they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They also rank 37th in the nation by pulling down 33.9% of their missed shots. They should expose a Tigers defense that ranks 290th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.3% of their missed shots. North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. LSU only made 38.0% of their shots in their loss to the Bulldogs last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a straight-up loss. The Tigers get to host this game in Baton Rouge — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when the favorite or listed as a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on a neutral court in Charleston with LSU winning by a 66-62 score as a 2-point favorite on November 17th. The Mean Green have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the North Texas Mean Green (673) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (25-8) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 98-87 victory against Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite in their semifinal showdown yesterday. Wisconsin (76-75) has won three games in a row after their 76-75 upset victory in overtime against Purdue as a 5.5-point underdog in their semifinal game yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois was locked in with their 3-point shooting yesterday as they nailed 13 of their 35 shots en route to their victory. They should build off that momentum this afternoon. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last game. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row. And they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a win by double-digits. The Illini did allow the Cornhuskers to make 46% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. The Fighting Illini rank fifth in the nation's Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin may be due for a physical and emotional after outlasting the Boilermakers in overtime yesterday. This is a tough matchup for the Badgers against this Illinois team that plays fast and scores tons of points. The Fighting Illini score 83.7 Points-Per-Game while launching 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 77 or more PPG. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. The Badgers struggle with their perimeter defense — they rank 347th in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert on a whopping 37.2% of their 3-point shots. Wisconsin’s opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.0% ranks 262nd in the nation. Inexplicably, Purdue only attempted 16 shots from behind the arc yesterday with their head coach Matt Painter seemingly lost control of the script and still freaked out regarding how to have his team play in one-and-down contests after they got upset as a number one seed last year in the Big Dance. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood will not make that mistake today. The Badgers score -5.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 209th in the nation in the drop off in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UT-Arlington Mavericks (639) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (640) in the Championship Game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (20-13) has won eight games in a row after their 87-84 victory against Tarleton State as a 1-point favorite in their semifinal contest in this tournament yesterday. Grand Canyon (28-4) has won four games in a row after their 80-72 victory against Seattle as a 6-point favorite in their semifinal game on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: UT-Arlington outlasted Tarleton State yesterday despite allowing them to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against a WAC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread victory. UT-Arlington has several routes to pull the upset tonight. They rank fourth in the WAC by pulling down 31.3% of their missed shots — and the Antelopes struggle in this department as they rank eighth in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.6% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking third in the conference. Grand Canyon turns the ball over in 18.0% of their possessions. The Mavericks lead the WAC by making 36.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and they also lead the conference by launching 41.4% of their shots from 3-point range. These attributes have helped UT-Arlington cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning four or more games in a row. All four of the Antelopes' losses were on the road where they score -5.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Grand Canyon swept both regular-season meetings with the Mavericks after their 67-61 win on the road as a 6-point road favorite back on January 27th. UT-Arlington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing with double-revenge. 8* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the UT-Arlington Mavericks (639) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (634) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (633) in the Championship Game of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (27-6) has won eight games in a row after their 72-65 victory against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. North Carolina State (21-14) has won four games in a row after their 72-65 upset victory against Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina outlasted Pittsburgh despite only making 43.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. North Carolina has a 13-5 record on the road with an average winning margin of +7.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home — and they rank seventh in the country overall in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. North Carolina State has pulled off three straight upset victories against Syracuse, Duke, and Virginia to reach this championship game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after winning two or more games in a row. They rank just 64th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road with the perimeter defense being a significant vulnerability. The Wolfpack allow their opponents to make 37.0% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 333rd in the nation. North Carolina ranks 36th in the nation by nailing 36.4% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home.       

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack lost both contests against the Tar Heels in the regular season after a 79-79 loss in Chapel Hill as an 11-point underdog on March 2nd. North Carolina State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 opportunities for some same-season revenge. 8* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the North Carolina Tar Heels (634) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (858) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (857) in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Washington State (24-8) has won three of their last four games after their 79-62 victory against Stanford as an 8-point favorite in their Quarterfinals contest in this tournament last night. Colorado (23-9) has won seven games in a row after their 72-58 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite in their Quarterfinals game last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington State should build off their momentum from yesterday as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up victory. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. Colorado has won eight of their last ten games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning eight or more of their last nine games. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in three straight games, but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games on the road after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado wants to avenge a 78-69 loss at Washington State as a 2-point underdog on January 27th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 opportunities for revenge this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 8* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Washington State Cougars (858) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (857). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (829) in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (20-11) has won two straight games after their 74-70 victory against SMU as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Wichita State (15-18) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 71-65 upset victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point underdog in the second round of this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB enters this tournament rested and ready — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Blazers are one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country — they rank 22nd in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they led the American Athletic Conference by making 75.7% of their shots on the charity stripe. These team attributes travel — UAB scores +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 28th in the nation in their improvement when Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. Wichita State held the Tigers to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning three of their last four games so an emotional letdown this afternoon appears likely. Wichita State ranks only 205th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they score -3.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 321st in the nation in the drop in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court when an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Wichita State won the only meeting between these two teams back on February 28th by a 74-66 score as a 7.5-point underdog. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games playing with revenge including all four of those opportunities this season. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus Wichita State Shockers (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (818) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (817) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (20-11) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 89-69 victory against New Mexico State yesterday as a 6.5-point favorite. Middle Tennessee (14-18) has won two of their last three games after their 70-67 upset victory against Louisiana Tech as a 9-point underdog in their Quarterfinals contest in this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on UAB to embrace the reset the conference tournament offered — and they responded with the easy 20-point victory. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by double-digits. We expected a better defensive effort from them yesterday — and they held the Aggies to 45.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Western Kentucky is a pretty good defensive team — they ranked fourth in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the regular season. They are allowing -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Their raw numbers are propped up by their uber-fast pace. The Hilltoppers rank fourth in the nation by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their 75.1 adjusted possessions per game is the top number in the nation. They combine this fast pace with great shooting — they lead Conference USA with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. Western Kentucky has scored 79 or more points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Middle Tennessee played their best defensive game in their last four contests yesterday by holding the Bulldogs to just 39.7% shooting. But the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. On the road, Middle Tennessee ranks just 330th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -6.3 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. The Hilltoppers are outscoring their opponents by +5.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games after the Blue Raiders won the most recent meeting by a 74-72 score as a 3.5-point home underdog on February 24th. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. 8* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (818) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (19-11) has lost four games in a row after their 82-79 loss at Liberty as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. New Mexico State (13-18) has won two games in a row after their 77-70 win against Florida International as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky allowed the Flames to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They had not allowed an opponent to make 50% or more of their shots until their last two contests. The Hilltoppers have given up 82 or more points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Western Kentucky is a pretty good defensive team — they rank fourth in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing -3.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Their raw numbers are propped up by their uber-fast pace. The Hilltoppers rank fourth in the nation by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their 75.1 adjusted possessions per game is the top number in the nation. They combine this fast pace with great shooting — they lead Conference USA with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. Western Kentucky has scored 79 or more points in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. This is just their second game since March 2nd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. New Mexico State nailed made 44.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They rank 297th in the nation and last in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Aggies scored 49 points in the first half of that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 45 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. Now they go back on the road where they have just one victory in 16 games — and they are getting outscored by -16.2 Points-Per-Game in those contests. New Mexico State only makes 40.5% of their shots including 25.5% of their 3-pointers on the road resulting in just 63.4 PPG. But the decline in defense when playing away from home is even more dramatic. They allow their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home resulting in 79.6 PPG. They are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They rank 356th in the nation in the drop they experience in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against WAC rivals. Another intangible dragging this team down is that they rank 349th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and the Hilltoppers make 73.4% of their free throws. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games after Western Kentucky won the last meeting by a 72-58 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 17th. But the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games in conference tournament action. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year is with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: Niagara (16-15) has won two of their last three games after their 67-65 victory against Siena as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Marist (17-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 63-62 win against Niagara as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PURPLE EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Niagara should build off the momentum of their victory in the first round of this tournament on Tuesday — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by three points or less in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 12 road games when playing with one day or less of rest, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of those contests. The Purple Eagles are a good team away from home where they allow -10.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They also score +2.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. Overall, they rank third in the nation in the bump they receive in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from their home court. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and the Red Foxes rank ninth defensively in that category in conference play. Niagara has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Marist can struggle to score baskets — they rank 321st in the nation and ninth in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They held the Purple Eagles to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but the Red Foxes have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread only once in their last six games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Marist ranks 229th in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin when playing away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 120s. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with the Purple Eagles winning by five points in January. Niagara has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (777) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (778) in the Quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (16-16) has won two games in a row after their 67-57 victory against Oregon State as a 6-point favorite in the quarterfinals yesterday. Oregon (20-11) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 66-65 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS THE PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA should build off their momentum from their triumph yesterday — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point-spread victory. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, the Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread after beating two straight conference opponents. Head coach Mick Cronin has this team playing better defense during this winning streak as they held both those opponents to just 53.5 Points-Per-Game. UCLA ranks 46th in the nation and third in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while they had lost five games in a row before this recent run, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Oregon held the Utes to just 41.1% shooting on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Ducks still rank only tenth in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a conference opponent. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings after the Bruins upset the Ducks by a 71-63 score as a 2.5-point underdog on February 3rd. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (777) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (778). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (767) minus the points versus the Louisiana State Tigers (768) in the second round of the SEC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (19-12) has lost four games in a row after their 93-89 upset loss to South Carolina in overtime as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. LSU (17-14) has won three of their last four games after their 84-80 victory against Missouri as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State can reset their season after stumbling down the stretch of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row to an SEC rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing four of their last five games. The Bulldogs still have designs on making the NCAA Tournament after registering high-profile victories against Tennessee and Auburn. They also have wins against Washington State and Northwestern — and all three of those teams rank from #40 to #45 in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. But Mississippi State cannot afford a slip-up in this game. The Bulldogs rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are sixth in the nation by limiting their opponents to making just 29.4% of their 3-point attempts. They also rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.9% of their missed shots — and they should control the glass against this Tigers team that ranks 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.6% of their missed shots. Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral court. LSU has been inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing for just the second time in seven days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games as an underdog including ten of their fifteen games as a dog this season.

FINAL TAKE: LSU wants to avenge an 87-67 loss to the Bulldogs at home back on February 24th where they were 3-point home dogs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for some sweet same-season revenge. Mississippi State pulled down 16 offensive boards in that game representing 42.1% of their missed shots. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (767) minus the points versus the Louisiana State Tigers (768). Best of luck for us — Frank.

t 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (676) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (675) in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. THE SITUATION: California (13-18) has lost three games in a row after their 80-58 loss at Stanford as a 4.5-point underdog last Thursday. Stanford (13-17) snapped a six-game losing streak with that victory. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California limps into the postseason having lost three straight games by double-digits. But all three of those games were true road games played in hostile environments. They get a clean slate now playing in Las Vegas — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two or more games in a row. After losing by 29 points in their game before facing the Cardinal, they have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing two games in a row by 15 or more points. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. Stanford held Cal to just 35.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 17 contests. That game finished Under the 154.5-point Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after losing four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played with five or six days of rest. And while the Cardinal has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Stanford goes back on the road where they are making only 43.4% of their shots resulting in 68.9 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -3.6% and -7.6 PPG lower than their numbers on their home court. They are scoring -12 fewer points per 100 possessions when away from home — and they rank 337th in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Stanford is getting outscored by -8.4 PPG when on the road — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s.

FINAL TAKE: Cal did win the first meeting between these two teams — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when motivated by some sweet same-season revenge. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (676) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (675). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542) in the Championship Game of the Patriot League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Lehigh (14-17) has won two games in a row — and seven of their last nine contests — after their 84-79 win in overtime at Boston University as a 2-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Sunday. Colgate (24-9) is on a four-game winning streak after their 68-65 victory against Bucknell as a 12-point favorite in their semifinal contest on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Lehigh was terrible in the first half on the road against the Terriers as they fell behind by 21 points before going into the locker room trailing by 18 points. They only made 40.0% of their shots in that game which was terrible worst shooting effort in their last three games. But they nailed 12 shots from behind the arc, made 24 of their 30 shots at the charity stripe, and forced 16 turnovers in 20.8% of Boston University’s possessions to rally back and steal the game. With that lesson in hand, the Mountain Hawks should play much better tonight and not dig themselves such a hole. They have held their last five opponents to 41.7% shooting resulting in just 66.0 Points-Per-Game. Their defense travels where they are quite comfortable — they are holding their home hosts to -3.9 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Even better, they score +8.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. Overall, Lehigh ranks fourth in the nation in their net improvement in Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing in true road games. Not surprisingly, the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Colgate held Bucknell to just 38.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But despite their four-game winning streak, the Raiders have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after two or more wins in a row where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Colgate is vulnerable even as a Patriot League giant because they do not create additional scoring possessions. They only pull down 23.6% of their missed shots in conference play and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and both those marks rank sixth in the Patriot League. They thrive by usually making the shots they take — but they were cold from behind the arc on Sunday as they made only 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. The Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their previous 4 games after failing to make more than 20% of their 3-pointers in their last game. They earned the right to host this game after winning the regular season crown — but they rank 246th in the nation in the drop Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their efficiency numbers when playing on the road. Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range.  

FINAL TAKE: Colgate swept both meetings with the Mountain Hawks in the regular season — but both their victories were by just three points including a 60-57 escape at home as an 11-point favorite on January 22nd. The Raiders then won by a 63-60 score on March 2nd — but Lehigh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Tournament Game of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623) in the Championship Game of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oakland (22-11) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last ten contests after their 74-71 victory against Cleveland State as a 3.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament last night. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (20-14) has won six straight games after their 82-75 upset victory against Northern Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog in their semifinal contest last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland should have covered the point spread last night — but rather than letting a flung half-court shot by the Vikings go uncontested the Grizzlies player fouled the Cleveland State shooter giving them three shots at the charity stripe. Even after that, Oakland covers the -3.5 if they hit their final free throw with only a second or two left in the game — but, nope. The Grizzlies still won that game despite only making 38.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Oakland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win against a Horizon League rival by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oakland has a 12-8 mark when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up win. They rank 11th in the nation with their improvement in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court when favored by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in tournament action. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 150s. Wisconsin-Milwaukee held the Norse to host 39.1% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Panthers still rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference rivals. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Panthers score -5.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 204th in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies make 45.0% of their shots — and Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams who make at least 45.0% of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland swept the two regular season games between these two teams after their 90-87 win on the road on January 27th — and the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Horizon League Tournament Game of the Year with the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (856) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (855) in the Semifinals of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oakland (21-11) has won two games in a row with six victories in their last seven contests after their 75-65 win against IUPUI-Fort Wayne as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Cleveland State (20-13) has won three games in a row after their 82-70 upset victory as a 10-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland is heating up on the offensive end of the court lately — they are making 48.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 79.0 Points-Per-Game. The Grizzlies should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. Oakland has an 11-8 mark when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after winning three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in tournament action. Cleveland State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a straight-up victory. They have failed to cover the point spread after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have scored 44 points in the first half in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after scoring 40 or more points in the first half in two or more games in a row. Cleveland State ranks only seventh in the Horizon League in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing away from home, they are allowing their opponents to make 57.4% of their shots inside the arc and pull down 34.7% of their missed shots, ranking 353rd and 338th in the nation respectively. The Vikings are allowing +4.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings after the Grizzlies’ 83-71 victory as a 3.5-point home favorite on February 3rd — and the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oakland Grizzlies (856) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (855). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Cats (306507) minus the point(s) versus the Boston University Terriers (306508) in the Semifinals of the Patriot League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Lehigh (13-17) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 76-61 victory at UL-Lafayette as a 2.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this event on Thursday. Boston University (16-16) has won six straight games after their 70-61 victory as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday in their quarterfinals contest.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Lehigh has still won six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a victory by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. The Mountain Hawks have not allowed more than 64 points in four straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two or more games in a row. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting resulting in just 61.0 Points-Per-Game. Their defense travels where they are quite comfortable — they are holding their home hosts to -4.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Even better, they score +8.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. Overall, Lehigh ranks second in the nation in their net improvement in Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing in true road games. Not surprisingly, the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Boston University has survived two overtime games during their six-game winning streak — including their upset win on the road against Lehigh on February 28th. The Terriers held the Midshipmen to 36.1% shooting in their most recent game which was the best defensive performance in their last four contests. But the Terriers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. And while they have won eight of their last ten games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games after winning eight or more of their last ten contest. They get to host this semifinal contest as the higher two-seed in this tournament — but they are surrendering +14.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. They rank 334th in the nation and ninth in the Patriot League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boston swept both regular-season meetings against the Mountain Hawks after that 64-62 upset win on the road as a 6-point underdog on February 28th — but Lehigh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 opportunities for some sweet same-season revenge. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Lehigh Mountain Cats (306507) minus the point(s) versus the Boston University Terriers (306508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (696) minus the point(s) versus the Wyoming Cowboys (695). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (11-19) has lost six straight games after their 79-58 loss at New Mexico as an 18-point underdog on Wednesday. Wyoming (14-16) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 74-63 win at home against Air Force as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Fresno State has endured some tough luck during their current losing streak. They lost by only two points at home to UNLV before losing in overtime at home to Utah State. They only made 32.7% of their shots in Albuquerque against the Lobos which was the second-worst shooting effort of their season. But the Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two or more games in a row to Mountain West Conference rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after losing three or more games in a row. Additionally, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. They return home where they are making 47.4% of their shots resulting in 70.9 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +7.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. They rank 58th in the nation by making 56.0% of their shots at home inside the arc — and the Cowboys are vulnerable defending the interior as they rank 345th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 57.0% of their shots inside the arc. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Wyoming held the Falcons to just 41.2% shooting which was the second-best defensive effort of their season. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by ten or more points against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they only have a 5-11 record with an average losing margin of -8.4 PPG. They only make 42.7% of their shots on the road resulting in just 67.2 PPG — and they are scoring -4.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs want to avenge a 68-67 loss to the Cowboys in Laramie as a 3.5-point underdog back on January 13th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss by three points or less. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Fresno State Bulldogs (696) minus the point(s) versus the Wyoming Cowboys (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Illinois (21-11) won for the fourth straight time with their 61-59 triumph against Tennessee State as a 2.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this event yesterday. Arkansas-Little Rock (20-11) has won nine straight games after their 81-43 victory against Tennessee Tech as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.

REASONS TO THE LEATHERNECKS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Illinois survived yesterday’s game despite making only 37.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Leathernecks controlled the boards with a 52-36 edge in rebounds — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after out-rebounding their previous opponent by +15 or more boards. This team does two things well that usually translate to neutral courts. First, Western Illinois ranks 13th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots — and they lead the Ohio Valley Conference by rebounding 39.2% of their misses. They grabbed 19 second chances yesterday representing 45.2% of their missed shots. They should control the offensive glass tonight as well — the Trojans rank 227th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.0% of their missed shots. Second, the Leathernecks play great half-court defense. They rank 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. They also rank 20th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — so they make it very tough on their opponents to score points. Western Illinois has not allowed more than 65 points in their last two games — and they have ten covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have covered the points spread in 15 of their last 19 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. They have an 11-6 record away from home where they are scoring +2.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions while holding their opponents to -4.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They rank 25th in the nation in their improved play away from home in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency. They are holding teams to just 40.6% shooting including a 28.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.8 Points-Per-Game. Western Illinois ranks eighth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6% when playing on the road. They hold these teams to just 46.8% shooting inside the arc, ranking 21st in the nation — and they allow these opponents to make only 28.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking ninth in the nation. The Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against Ohio Valley Conference opponents. Little Rock held Tennessee Tech to just 30% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Trojans have scored at least 80 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning five or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning six or more games in a row. On the road, they have a 6-7 record while making 46.0% of their shots. They only hit 30.0% of the 3-pointers away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. They score -2.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. But the bigger concern is on the other end of the court where they allow +7.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home. They rank 335th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Little Rock won the first meeting between these two teams in a 63-60 upset win as a 1.5-point road underdog back on February 28th — but the Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (12-17) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 78-71 loss at Oregon as a 13.5-point underdog last Thursday. Utah (18-11) has won three of their last four games after their 88-59 victory against California as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon State allowed the Ducks to make 49.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Now after playin' their last three games on the road, they return home where they have an 11-5 record with an average winning margin of +5.6 net Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home — and they are giving up -8.8 points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. Oregon State ranks eighth in the nation in the bump up in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they are playing on their home court. The Beavers hold their opponents to just 41.1% shooting and a 30.9% mark from behind the arc resulting in 67.6 Points-Per-Game. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Utah nailed 50.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last 16 contests. They also held the Golden Bears to 34.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. After playing one of their best games of the season, the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread only once in their last four games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have a 4-9 record with an average losing margin of -7.9 PPG. Utah is only making 43.5% of their shots on the road including just 32.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in 71.3 PPG. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 47.8% of their shots including 38.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 79.2 PPG. The Utes are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions in true road games. Utah ranks 171st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and their opponent's effective field goal percentage of 55.2% ranks 319th in the nation. Furthermore, they rank 361st in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games in conference play. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as a favorite or a pick ‘em.  

FINAL TAKE: Utah won the first meeting between these two teams at home at Salt Lake City by a 74-47 score as a 15-point favorite. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 game games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Year with Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (752) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (751). THE SITUATION: Oregon (19-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 103-83 loss at Arizona as a 14-point underdog on Saturday. Colorado (20-9) has won four games in a row after their 81-71 victory as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon allowed the Wildcats to make 60.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Ducks have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss to a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by 15 or more points. Now after playing only one time at home in their last five games, they return to Eugene for only the second time since February 10th to defend their 12-2 record. The Ducks are outscoring their guests by +9.6 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their visitors to just 43.7% shooting including a 30.9% mark from behind the arc. Colorado has made at least 50% of their shots in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after making 47% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after shooting 50% or better from the field in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. And while they have won their last three games by double-digits, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games after winning at least two games in a row against Pac-12 rivals by 10 or more points. After playing their last three games at home, Colorado goes back on the road where they have a 4-8 record with an average losing margin of -2.5 PPG. They are allowing their home hosts to make 47.2% of their shots including 37.2% of their 3-pointers resulting in 77.2 PPG.    

FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Colorado-Oregon ESPN2 Special with Oregon Ducks (752) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (702) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (701). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (23-6) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 60-52 victory at Central Florida as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. BYU (21-8) has won two games in a row after their 87-75 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: The Cougars nailed 52.5% of their shots against the Horned Frogs which was the best shooting mark in their last nine contests. But BYU has then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home where they beat a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have lost six of their eight games this season. While the Cougars rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in one set of power rankings I follow, they drop to 45th in the nation using those numbers when playing in hostile environments. They are scoring -6.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in true road games — and they are allowing +8.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions in those games. Their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments is the 317th-worst discrepancy in the nation. They rank just 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are allowing their home hosts to make 35.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 224th in the nation. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they are 17-0 and rank third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when assessing home court play. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when favored.                      

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State wants to avenge an 87-72 loss at BYU as a 4-point road underdog back on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. 8* CBB BYU-Iowa State ESPN2 Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (702) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (701). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (708) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (707). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (18-11) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 75-70 victory against Penn State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Indiana (16-13) has won two games in a row after their 83-78 upset win at Maryland as a 9-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have scored 75 or more points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Golden Gophers stay at home where they have a 16-2 record this season with an average winning margin of +12.7 Points-Per-Game. They are nailing 48.2% of their shots resulting in 78.6 PPG. They are also holding their guests to 41.7% shooting including a 33.7% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 65.9 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when favored. Indiana has pulled off two straight upset victories as their victory in College Park was preceded by a 74-70 upset win at home against Wisconsin. But the Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory on the road. Now Indiana goes back on the road where they are just 5-8 with an average losing margin of -7.0 PPG. Head coach Mike Woodson is running an offense Bobby Knight would appreciate as they rely on shooting inside the arc and getting to the free-throw line. But this approach may be outdated — and they rank 315th in the nation by only making 29.7% of their shots from 3-point land. This Indiana team does not play defense like Knight’s team of old either — they are allowing 78.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota wants to avenge a 74-62 loss at Indiana back on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 opportunities for revenge. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing with revenge for a loss on the road. 10* CBB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (708) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (700) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (699). THE SITUATION: North Texas (16-12) has won two games in a row after their 84-69 victory against East Carolina as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (22-7) has won two of their last three games after their 79-73 victory against Tulane as a 16.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN MINUS THE POINTS: Even in victory, North Texas allowed the Pirates to make 53.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Mean Green have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by 10 or more points on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after winning two or more games in a row. North Texas stays at home where they have an 11-3 record with an average winning margin of +12.5 Points-Per-Game. The Mean Green ranks fifth in the nation by making 42.2% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. They also rank third in the American Athletic Conference by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots when playing at home. They also rank third in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in AAC action. They are holding their opponents to 39.5% shooting including a 31.1% mark from behind the arc resulting in 61.6 Points-Per-Game. North Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog. FAU has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up victory at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Now the Owls go back on the road where they have lost six of their seven games this season. They rank 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 247th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to rebound 31.2% of their missed shots. FAU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em. The Owls are scoring -6.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in hostile environments while allowing their home hosts to score +9.6 more points per 100 adjusted points — and those marks represent the 355th worst drop in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: The Mean Green are motivated to avenge a 66-63 loss at FAU as a 9.5-point underdog back on January 28th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the North Texas Mean Green (700) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (699). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (654) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (653). THE SITUATION: UNLV (18-10) has won four games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 68-50 victory against San Jose State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. San Diego State (22-7) has won two games in a row after their 72-64 win against San Jose State as a 21.5-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RUNNIN’ REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: UNLV should continue their big momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home by double-digits. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have a 10-4 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +9.7 Points-Per-Game. The Runnin’ Rebels have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games in conference play. Over their last ten games, they rank 36th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and this improvement has been fueled on the defensive end of the court where they rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in those ten games. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning two games in a row against a conference opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. All seven of their losses are away from home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road.   

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 72-61 score on January 6th — but the Runnin’ Rebels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (654) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Eastern Kentucky (17-13) has lost two games in a row after their 81-67 loss at Lipscomb as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Jacksonville (15-16) snapped their two-game losing streak before their 92-86 upset win at Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog in the first round of this tournament last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLONELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins broke out by making 50.0% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. They nailed 13 of their 21 shots 61.9% from behind the arc in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. That performance was well out of character for this Jacksonville team that ranks last in the Atlantic Sun in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and their 47.3% effective field goal percentage. They rank 281st in the nation by making only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc. I hate the situation the Dolphins are now in having to travel from Georgia to Kentucky without a day of rest as this tournament continues. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. The Dolphins are just 3-13 away from home — and they rank 330th in the nation and last in the Atlantic Sun in Adjusted Net Efficiency in hostile environments. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. They face an angry Eastern Kentucky team that only made 39.7% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. Eastern Kentucky returns where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of 14.3 Points-Per-Game. They rank 203rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court (not bad for a low mid-major) while leading the Atlantic Sun in that metric. They are scoring 87.1 PPG at home from 48.7% shooting from the field and a 38.4% clip from behind the arc, ranking 42nd in the nation. The Dolphins play pretty good defense — but they rank 313th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Eastern Kentucky ranks third in the conference in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They also lead the Atlantic Sun with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7%.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville wants to avenge a 75-59 loss at Eastern Kentucky as an 11-point underdog on January 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Northern Arizona (14-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 85-58 loss at Weber State as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday. Northern Colorado (18-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 81-79 upset victory against Idaho State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LUMBERJACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Arizona only made 31.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. The Lumberjacks should bounce back tonight — they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss to a Big Sky Conference rival including five of those last seven circumstances this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have a 7-4 record this season while holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting including a 30.2% mark from behind the arc. Northern Arizona plays solid half-court defense when playing at home — they rank fourth in the Big Sky with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9% on their home court and they rank in the top-four in both 3-point defense and 2-point defense at home in conference play. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Head coach Shane Burcar led his team to a big March run last year — they reached the Big Sky Conference Tournament Championship Game despite a 5-13 record in conference play in the regular season. Under Burcar, Northern Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 47 games as an underdog. They now host a Northern Colorado team that is a vulnerable road favorite. The Bears rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and they rank eighth in the Big Sky in that category when on the road. They have a 7-9 record on the road while getting outscored by -1.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 81.9 PPG while making 47.2% of their shots including 37.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 287th in the nation when assessing play on the road. They rank 304th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They made 60.0% of their shots on Saturday against the Bengals which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They have scored 81 points in two straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Lumberjacks are vulnerable against good offensive rebounding teams — but that is not the Bears who rank 307th in the nation in that category. And while Northern Arizona only makes 43.6% of their shots, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are not making more than 45% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Arizona looks to avenge a 92-87 loss at Northern Colorado on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (771). THE SITUATION: Alabama (20-8) has won four of their last five games after their 103-88 victory at Mississippi as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Tennessee (22-6) has won five games in a row after their 92-84 victory against Auburn as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Alabama has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when playing for the second time in seven days. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in Adjusted Offense Efficiency. They have scored 80 or more points in nine straight games — and they have scored 90 or more points in five straight contests. They return home where they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Alabama has a 14-1 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +25.2 Points-Per-Game. They are making 50.1% of their shots on their home court including 41.1 of their 3-pointers which ranks 15th best in the nation. And after allowing Kentucky and then Ole Miss to make 63.1% and 51.9% of their shots against them, they come back home where they are holding their guests to 39.7% shooting including a 28.3% mark from behind the arc resulting in 70.6 PPG. The Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set at 160 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when favored. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after a straight-up win at home. And while they have won and covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after covering the point spread as the favorite in two or more games in a row. They scored 86 or more points in both of those games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 85 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while the Volunteers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Tennessee ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, they go back on the road where they drop to 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. The Volunteers rank 228th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line in true road games. They also rank 276th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Ride will be motivated to avenge a 91-71 loss at Tennessee in their lowest-scoring game of the season as they missed 17 of their 21 shots from behind the arc. But Alabama has still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Tennessee-Alabama ESPN Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (771). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (21-6) has won five of their last six games after their 71-64 victory against West Virginia as an 18-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (84-82) snapped a two-game losing streak in an 84-82 upset win in overtime at Oklahoma State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State was flat against the Mountaineers over the weekend as they allowed them to make 47.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Despite that performance, the Cyclones still rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the points spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. And while this is just their second game since last Monday, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when play for the second time in eight or more days. The Cyclones stay at home where they have a 16-0 record with an average winning margin of +25.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Net Efficiency Margin when looking only at home court advantages. They are making 49.9% of their shots at home including 39.1% of their 3-pointers which is the 32nd-best mark in the nation — resulting in 82.9 PPG. On the other end of the court, they are holding their guests to just 38.7% shooting including a 31.2% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 57.1 PPG. They also rank third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 27.0% of their opponent’s possessions — and they should force plenty of turnovers against this Sooners team that ranks 222nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 17.7% of their possessions. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. Oklahoma nailed 50.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their previous games this season after pulling off an upset victory. Oklahoma did allow the Cowboys to make 57.4% of their shots in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after giving up 80 or more points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have a 6-5 record with an average losing margin of -1.1 PPG — but their drop in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing in a hostile environment presents the 243rd biggest discrepancy in the nation relative to their play at home. They only make 44.9% of their shots on the road in hostile environments including just 29.4% of their 3-pointers which is the 306th lowest mark in the nation. Oklahoma ranks 206nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 48.4% — and that drop compared to their eFG when at home or on a neutral court of -6.8% is the 332nd biggest discrepancy in the nation. On defense, the Sooners are allowing +9.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing in a hostile environment which is the 344th worst discrepancy versus their defensive efficiency at home or on a neutral court. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State wants to avenge a 71-63 loss at Oklahoma back on January 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). THE SITUATION: UMBC (9-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 62-56 loss at Maine as a 4.5-point underdog. New Hampshire (15-10) has won two of their last three games in an 83-78 victory against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RETRIEVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Baltimore Country only made 37.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 26 contests. Despite that disappointing performance, the Retrievers still lead the America East Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 31st in the nation with their 53.1% effective field goal percentage. UMBC generates good looks at the basket when playing away from home because they play at a blistering pace — they rank second in the nation by averaging only 14.4 seconds per possession. They also rank seventh in the country by averaging 73.4 adjusted possessions per game. While the Retrievers have just a 4-9 record in conference play, seven of their losses have been by six points or less — and two of those losses were by just two points or less. UMBC should play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after a straight-up loss this season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss to an American East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 160s. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. New Hampshire nailed 53.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort of the season. The Wildcats converted 11 of their 27 (40.7%) of their 3-pointers in that game — but now they play a UMBC team that ranks 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.6% shooting from behind the arc. New Hampshire has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing with just one day of rest. The Wildcats rank just eighth in the American East in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing at home in conference play — and UMBC ranks fourth in the conference in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road against American East foes. New Hampshire is only making 44.3% of their shots including 34.6% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This team also plays at a fast pace — they rank 26th in the nation by averaging only 15.6 seconds per possession and they rank 21st by averaging 71.2 adjusted possessions per game. But New Hampshire tends to underachieve against similar fast-paced teams. UMBC averages 64 shots per game — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams who launch 62 or more shots per game. On the other hand, while New Hampshire averages 62 shots per game, the Retrievers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who take 62 or more shots per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats did win the first meeting between these two teams in a 64-58 win on the road as a 3-point favorite on January 20th — but UMBC has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 opportunities for revenge this season. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB American East Underdog of the Year with the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (834) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (833). THE SITUATION: Arizona (20-5) rides a six-game winning streak after their 105-60 victory against Arizona State as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington State (20-6) has won seven games in a row and 10 of their last 11 contests after their 72-59 victory against Stanford as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Arizona is clicking on all cylinders right now after point guard Kylan Boswell stepped up from a slow start earlier in the season. During this six-game winning streak, Boswell is scoring 10.5 Points-Per-Game while making 35.4% of his shots from behind the arc and dishing out 4.0 Assists-Per-Game. For the fifth-scoring option, those are nice complementary numbers to Caleb Love and Oumar Ballo who are combining to score 31.8 PPG. The Wildcats are a legitimate contender to win the NCAA Tournament — and it starts with their balance on both ends of the court. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should continue their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight contests, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally,  the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last contest. They stay at home where they have a 13-0 record with an average winning margin of +30.7 net Points-Per-Game. Arizona is holding their guests to just 38.7% shooting resulting in just 63.6 PPG. They are also nailing 51.9% of their shots including 39.7% of their 3-pointers en route to 94.3 PPG when playing at home. Led by Ballo, they also rank 13th in the country by pulling down 39.0% of their missed shots. Only UCLA and Stanford have played within 11 points of the Wildcats in their 13 wins at home — their next closest home game was their 15-point victory against USC. Arizona has covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 home games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when laying 12.5 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their 15 games this season as a double-digit favorite. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a double-digit win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games when playing on the road after a double-digit victory. And while their win against the Cardinal was preceded by a 99-79 victory at Colorado, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after two straight wins by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after two straight wins on their home court by double-digits. But now after playing their last two games at home to raise their record to 13-1 in front of their home fans, they go back on the road where they are just 7-5. The Cougars will struggle to score tonight — they only make 44.2% of their shots on the road resulting in 70.5 PPG. They rank 207th in the country by making only 32.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Washington State makes up for their mediocre shooting by pulling down 30.4% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking second in the Pac-12 — but good luck with that against the Wildcats who rank third in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 22.8% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has had this game circled since their 73-70 upset loss at Washington State as a 9-point road favorite back on January 13th. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge from an upset loss on the road. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona Wildcats (834) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (833). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (14-13) saw their three-game snapped in a 73-72 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Cleveland State (16-11) has won two of their last three games after an 81-73 upset win against Youngstown State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to a Horizon League rival. The Norse have still covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. This team leads the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 35th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponents' possessions — and they force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on their home court. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return to play for just the second time since last Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when playing for the second time in eight days. Northern Kentucky has a 10-3 record at home with an average winning margin of +11.2 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 44.4% shooting at home including a 29.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 69.5 PPG. They also rank 56.6% of their shots inside the arc at home which ranks 49th in the nation — and they are making 48.9% of their shots at home overall resulting in 80.7 PPG. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing their last two games on the road. Cleveland State held the Penguins to just 43.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. They also nailed 53.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games and tied for their best effort in their last 20 contests. But the Vikings have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, while they have won four of their last six games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where their defense falters — they rank 328th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Of particular concern is their interior defense when playing Northern Kentucky — they allow their opponents to make 57.8% of their shots inside the arc when on the road, ranking 351st in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 36.5% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 339th in the nation. The Norse pull down a solid 31.9% of their misses when playing at home. Cleveland State has a 4-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -4.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 77.6 PPG. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of up to six points or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have 9-7 records in the Horizon League — but Cleveland State won the first meeting between these teams by an 88-85 score at home as a 4.5-point favorite on January 7th. The Norse have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (714) minus the point(s) versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (713). THE SITUATION: Indiana (14-11) has lost two games in a row after their 76-72 upset loss at home to Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Nebraska (18-8) has won two games in a row with their 68-49 victory at home against Penn State as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Indiana needs a victory after a bad stretch in Big Ten plays. The Hoosiers have still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Indiana stays at home where they have a 10-4 record while making 48.4% of their shots and limiting their opponents to just 40.7% shooting. Nebraska’s victory against the Nittany Lions finished Under the 151.5-point total for that game. But the Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games on the road after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They go back on the road where they are just 2-7 with an average losing margin of -5.5 Points-Per-Game. Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games on the road including six of their last eight contests away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana wants to avenge an 86-70 loss at Nebraska back on January 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 8* CBB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Indiana Hoosiers (714) minus the point(s) versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). THE SITUATION: Samford (23-4) was on a six-game winning streak before their 88-84 upset loss at Mercer as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Furman (15-12) has won three games in a row with their 82-65 victory against UT-Chattanooga as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Samford might be coming off their worst-played game of the season. They allowed the Bears to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. They also only made 43.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests — and tied for the worst shooting performance in their last 25 games. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to a Southern Conference opponent. The Bulldogs should shoot much better tonight as they rank sixth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. While they rank 27th in the nation with their shooting inside the arc, their 40.5% clip from behind the arc is the best mark in the country. Samford combines this excellent shooting by playing at a very fast pace. They rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per game — and they are sixth in the nation by averaging only 15.0 seconds per possession. Additionally, the Bulldogs push the pace by pressing on defense — they rank 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponents' possessions. After scoring 170 combined points in their last two games, Samford has scored at least 75 points in seven straight contests. They have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in five or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more combined points. They return home where they have a 15-0 record with an average winning margin of +21.2 Points-Per-Game. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to just 43.1% shooting when playing at home — but they are nearly unstoppable on the other end of the court. They are making 52.4% of their shots on their home court including a nation-leading 43.9% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Samford has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. They have also covered the point spread in expected high-scoring games where the Total is set at 160 or higher. Furman played their best defensive game of the season on Sunday by holding the Moccasins to just 33.9% shooting. And while the Paladins do a good job in defending the perimeter, they rank 332nd in the nation when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to make 56.1% of their shots inside the arc. Furman had not covered the point spread in six straight games before their triumph against Chattanooga — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-10 while allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots and score 80.8 PPG. On the other end of the court, the Paladins only make 42.6% of their shots including just 32.4% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 77.9 PPG. Furman scores 80.0 PPG this season — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams scoring 77.0 or more PPG. The Paladins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Furman won the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-68 score back on January 24th — but Samford has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities for same-season revenge. The Paladins are outscoring their opponents by +4.5 PPG — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year is with the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (638) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (637). THE SITUATION: Utah State (21-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 75-55 loss at Colorado State as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. San Diego State (20-6) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 81-70 victory against New Mexico as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah State only made 38.6% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 contests. They were 7-14 from the charity stripe in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make at least 53% of their free throws in their last game. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. And while they were trailing by 43-26 score at halftime in their loss to the Rams, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last contest. First-year head coach Danny Sprinkle is doing a great job overseeing this team that did not return any production from last season. The former Montana State coach was dependent on the transfer portal — led by forward Great Osobor who is scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game and 9.2 Rebounds-Per-Game who played for Sprinkle as a Bobcat. Utah State ranks 14th in the nation by making 57.0% of their shots inside the arc. They rank sixth in the country by limiting their opponents to making just 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc. They also rank 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.3% of their missed shots. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have an 11-1 record with an average winning margin of +18.4 Points-Per-Game. The Aggies are holding their opponents to just 41.6% shooting and a 27.8% clip from behind the arc, resulting in 66.0 PPG. On the other end of the court, they are nailing 53.2% of their shots at home including 36.3% of their 3-pointers resulting in 84.4 PPG. They rank 11th in the nation by making 60.8% of their shots inside the arc. Utah State has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 home games when favored or a pick ‘em including seven of those ten circumstances this season. San Diego State may be coming off their best game of the season last Friday. The Aztecs made 56.9% of their shots which was the best field goal percentage of the season. They also held the Lobos to 35.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 12 contests. But San Diego State has then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. The Aztecs improved to 13-0 at home by beating Colorado State — but they go back on the road where they are just 7-6 this season. While they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they drop to a rank of 48th in that metric when away from home. Of importance against the Aggies, they allow their opponents to make 51.2% of their 2-point shots when on the road, ranking 152nd in the nation. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Utah State wants to avenge an 81-67 loss at San Diego State back on February 3rd. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range including five games in a row when playing on the road. 10* CBB San Diego State-Colorado State CBS Sports Network Special with the Utah State Aggies (638) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (306662) minus the points versus the North Carolina Central Eagles (306661). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (16-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 71-67 win in overtime against South Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. North Carolina Central (13-10) has lost two games in a row after their 90-82 loss at Howard as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Norfolk State is in first place in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference with a 6-2 record — and they are the highest-ranked team from the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency metrics by Ken Pomeroy. They upset VCU earlier in the season. They might have the best player in the conference in guard Jamarii Thomas, a transfer from UNC-Wilmington. Head coach Robert Jones led his team to win the conference tournament in 2021 and 2022 before losing to Howard in the tournament championship game last March. The Spartans held South Carolina State to just 32.1% shooting on Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing their last opponent to make more than 33% of their shots. Norfolk State ranks third in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 40.6% shooting inside the arc. The Spartans have not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay at home for this one where they have a 10-0 record with an average winning margin of +24.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their opponents to just 37.2% shooting including a 31.2% clip from behind the arc resulting in 62.8 PPG. They also rank 32nd in the nation by limiting their guests to 43.9% shooting inside the arc. This is just Norfolk State’s third game since February 5th — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when favored in the 6.5-9 point range. The Spartans rank 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and that mark rises to eighth best in the country when playing at home. They also rank 12th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponents’ possessions — and that mark improves to seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponents’ possessions when playing at home. While North Carolina Central leads the MEAC by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions — their 18.4% turnover rate when playing away from home ranks 265th in the country. The Eagles nailed 56.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. NC Central has played two games in a row that finished Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. They are in second place in the conference with a 5-3 record — and they also have the second-best Adjusted Net Efficiency mark of all the MEAC teams using Pomeroy’s numbers. Head coach LeVelle Moton’s team thrives in defending the perimeter — as they rank 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 29.0% shooting from 3-point range. But the Spartans only rank sixth in the conference by hitting 31.5% of their 3-pointers — so 3-point shooting is not their formula for success. The Eagles stay on the road where they are just 5-8 this season with an average losing margin of -6.5 PPG. They are only making 41.3% of their shots away from home which includes a woeful 28.0% clip from downtown, ranking 334th in the nation. They are allowing their opponents to make 45.0% of their shots away from home resulting in 72.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: This Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference showdown could be the preview of the Conference Tournament Championship Game. North Carolina Central won the first meeting between these two teams on their home court by a 60-58 score on January 9th with the Spartans missing 15 of their 16 shots from behind the arc in the loss. Norfolk State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 opportunities for same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* CBB NC Central-Norfolk State ESPNU Special with the Norfolk State Spartans (306662) minus the points versus the North Carolina Central Eagles (306661). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (882) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (881). THE SITUATION: Houston (22-3) has won three games in a row along with eight of their last nine games after their 82-61 victory against Texas as a 10-favorite on Saturday. Iowa State (20-5) has won four games in a row along with seven of their last eight contests after their 82-74 win against Texas Tech as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston may be the best college basketball team in the country. They lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the country with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 43.2% while ranking in the top eight in both 3-point and 2-point defense. They lead the nation by blocking their opponent’s shots in a whopping 17.5% of their possessions. They rank fourth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.9% of their opponent’s possessions. On offense, the Cougars are not a great shooting team but they still rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency due to their tremendous shot volume. They are fourth in the nation by pulling down 39.2% of their missed shots — and they are sixth in the country by turning the ball over in just 13.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Houston should be fine playing on short rest since they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have a 14-0 record at home with an average winning margin of +30.4 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 33.5% shooting and a 27.0% clip from behind the arc resulting in just 48.1 PPG. They also shoot better on their home court where they make 48.1% of their shots resulting in 78.5 PPG. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on their home court. Iowa State has covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in five or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they are undefeated on their home court, the Cyclones are just 5-5 when away from home where they both score and allow 71.2 PPG. Iowa State also struggles to make baskets — especially on the road. They are only making 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc away from home, ranking 326th in the nation. They also only convert on 64.6% of their free throws away from home, ranking 335th in the country. While they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 58th in the nation in that metric when on the road. And troublesome for this showdown, they allow their opponents to rebound 35.7% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 339th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Houston is motivated to avenge their 57-53 upset loss at Iowa State as a 2.5-point underdog back on January 9th — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 8* CBB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (882) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (881). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (726) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (725). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (19-6) had won four games in a row before their 71-55 loss at San Diego State as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday. Utah State (21-4) has won two games in a row and five of their last seven contests after their 84-76 victory at Wyoming as an 8-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Colorado State raced out to a 44-30 halftime lead against the Aztecs — but San Diego State put the clamps down on defense in the second half by outscoring the Rams by a whopping 41-11 margin to win that game decisively. We were on the Aztecs in that game expecting them to frustrate the Colorado State offensive attack in that revenge spot. The Rams only made 35.8% of their shots in that game in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. But they should play better tonight in their opportunities to exact some revenge. Colorado State should start well as they have gone into halftime with at least a six-point lead in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after enjoying halftime leads of at least five points in three or more games in a row. And while their game against San Diego State finished far below the 140-point total, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Despite what the Aztecs did to them, the Rams remain one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They rank 14th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.2% — and those numbers are fueled by their 58.1% clip inside the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. They return home where they have a 13-1 record with an average winning margin of +14.9 Points-Per-Game. Colorado State makes 52.8% of its shots at home including 38.7% of their 3-pointers and 61.3% of their shots inside the arc which ranks eighth best in the nation — resulting in 82.4 PPG. They hold their guests to 44.4% shooting including a 32.1% mark from behind the arc resulting in 67.5 PPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Utah State made 56.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. But now they travel from Laramie to Fort Collins for a second straight game in Mountain West altitude — and they have one less day of rest for this contest as compared to the Rams. The Aggies rank 327th in the nation in bench minutes while using mostly a six-man rotation of players who average 15 or more minutes per game. Utah State is vulnerable with their interior defense as well — they rank 253rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 52.1% of their 2-point shots. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: As mentioned earlier, Colorado State has revenge on their mind after losing at Utah State on January 6th by a 77-72 score — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* CBB Utah State-Colorado State CBS Sports Network Special with the Colorado State Rams (726) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (725). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Queens University Royals (306556) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306555). THE SITUATION: Queens University (10-17) has lost three games in a row after their 93-79 upset loss at North Florida as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Jacksonville (13-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 66-61 loss at Kennesaw State as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS MINUS THE POINTS: Queens only made 45.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. The Royals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing three games in a row. They have given up 75 or more points in 16 straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after allowing 75 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Royals play at one of the fastest paces in the nation — they rank 15th in the nation by averaging only 15.2 seconds per possession. They stay at home where they have a 9-3 record with an average winning margin of +11.2 Points-Per-Game. Queens should shoot better tonight as they nail 48.8% of their shots at home resulting in 89.9 PPG. The Royals have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 home games when favored or a pick ‘em this season. Jacksonville only made 39.3% of their shots on Wednesday — but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss to an Atlantic Sun rival. They stay on the road to play for the third time since last Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games when playing for the third time in seven days. They are just 3-12 away from home with an average losing margin of -14.1 PPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games as an underdog getting up to six points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Queen’s University is motivated to avenge a 79-77 loss at Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite back on January 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities for revenge. 8* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Queens University Royals (306556) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306555). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (636) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (635). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (18-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 70-66 loss in overtime at Nevada as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Colorado State (19-5) is on a four-game winning streak after their 66-47 win against San Jose State as a 15-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State allowed the Wolf Pack to make 46.5% of their shots in that game last week which was the second-worst defensive effort in three last 15 contests. They only made 40.8% of their shots as well in the loss which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. The Aztecs should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight loss on the road to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning 15 or more of their last 20 games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a perfect 11-0 record with an average winning margin of +17.0 Points-Per-Game. San Diego State should shoot better back on their home court where they are making 46.1% of their shots. But it is the Aztecs' defense that thrives when playing at home where they rank ninth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their guests to 38.6% shooting including just a 28.6% clip from behind the arc resulting in 60.2 PPG. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 board home games this season — and they have also covered the point spread in 34 of their last 4 home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Colorado State held the Spartans to just 32.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 18 contests. The Rams have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. And while they have played three straight Unders, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Colorado State makes eight shots from behind the arc per game — but the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make eight or more 3s per game. And while San Diego State has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 41.1% this season, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after 15 games into the season against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42%. Now Colorado State goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. Additionally, Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as a dog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams shot 53.8% from the field in their 79-71 win at home against San Diego State on January 30th which was the worst defensive effort of the season for the Aztecs — so head coach Brian Dutcher will have his team ready to go on the defensive end of the court tonight. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss on the road this season. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (636) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306629) plus the point(s) versus the Bucknell Bison (306630). THE SITUATION: Lehigh (8-15) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 94-90 win in double overtime against Lafayette as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Bucknell (10-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 77-62 upset loss at home against Boston University as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Lehigh survived two overtimes on Saturday despite allowing the Leopards to make 55.6% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. This is Lehigh’s third game since Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing their third game in seven days. This team appears to be finding itself under Dr. Brett Reed in his 17th year as the head coach. His team got hot in the second half of conference play last year with the Mountain Hawks finishing tied for second place in the Patriot League. While Lehigh has just a 5-7 record in conference play this season, they rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Mountain Hawks are 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots. They also lead in the Patriot League in getting to the free throw line and in making 73.6% of their shots at the charity stripe — and now they play a Bison team that ranks ninth in the league in putting their opponents on the free throw line. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 road games after playing their last two games at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Lehigh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Bucknell averages 53 shots per game — and the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games against teams who do not attempt more than 53 shots per game. Lehigh has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a losing record after 15 games into the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games. The Bison have a 7-5 record in the Patriot League — and they rank third in Adjusted Efficiency Margin under rookie head coach John Griffin III. But Bucknell has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss — as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss by double-digits. The Bison rank eighth in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 18.1% of their possessions — and Lehigh ranks second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 17.8% of their opponents' possessions. Griffin has yet to re-establish a home-court advantage for Bucknell as they have just a 4-7 record at home while getting outscored by -3.6 net Points-Per-Game. The Bison have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored or a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Lehigh wants to avenge an 86-80 upset loss at home against Bucknell as a 5-point favorite on January 10th. The Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 opportunities for revenge this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306629) plus the point(s) versus the Bucknell Bison (306630). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Bradley Braves (758) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (757). THE SITUATION: Bradley (17-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-70 upset loss at Evansville as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday. Drake (19-5) has won three of their last four games after their 92-88 win against Southern Illinois as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE POINTS: Bradley only made 42.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 contests. But the Braves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road to a Missouri Valley Conference rival. It was a rare bad day at the offense for this team regarding shooting the basketball — they rank 12th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5%. They also rank 16th in the nation by nailing 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they lead the Missouri Valley Conference by making 39.6% of their 3-pointers in conference play. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a 10-2 record with an average winning margin of +13.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are making 49.3% of their shots at home resulting in 79.2 PPG. They are also playing well on the other end of the court where they are holding their guests to just 40.6% shooting resulting in 65.4 PPG. Bradley has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 38 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games at home when favored or a pick ‘em. Drake made 56.9% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 2 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home against a conference river. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after a win where they scored 80 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road where they won straight-up but did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Drake is second in the nation in defensive rebounding — but they will be challenged by the Braves who lead the Missouri Valley by pulling down 31.1% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs’ defense takes a step back when they are playing on the road. Their opponents sport an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% when they are playing away from home, ranking 238th in the nation — and Drake ranks no higher than 215th in the nation in opponent 3-point shooting and opponent 2-point shooting when they are away from home. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog overall.

FINAL TAKE: This is Bradley’s first opportunity to play Drake since their 77-51 loss to them as a 2-point underdog in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March 5th which cost them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Braves have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Bradley Braves (758) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (757). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (888) minus the point(s) versus the San Diego State Aztecs (887). THE SITUATION: Nevada (18-5) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 77-63 upset win at Utah State as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday. San Diego State (18-5) has won two games in a row after their 77-64 victory at the Air Force as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE  WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: The Atzecs nailed 51.0% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. But this is now head coach Brian Dutcher’s third game since Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the third time in seven days. San Diego State has an 11-0 record at home where they boast the nation’s tenth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the Aztecs are just 7-5 away from home — and their play on defense plummets to just ranking 59th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also only make 44.4% of their shots on the road with the biggest drop-off coming inside the arc. While San Diego State nails 56.8% of their 2-point shots when playing at home, that number drops to a 49.5% mark inside the arc when playing on the road. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Nevada registered a quality victory against the Aggies this week — but head coach Steve Alford needs a few more high-quality wins for their NCAA Tournament resume and this would be a signature victory for this team. I remain bullish on the Wolf Pack that we have backed a few times already this season. Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. They rank Nevada ranks 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This group has a high floor given the strong fundamentals that he has instilled into this team. The Wolf Pack ranks 23rd in the nation by turning the ball over in 14.1% of their possessions. They also get to the free throw line as they rank ninth in the nation in free throw rate. Nevada returns home where they have an 11-1 record this season with an average winning margin of +18.4 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 38.4% shooting resulting in 61.5 PPG. They also make 38.5% of their shots at home including 32.3% of their 3-pointers resulting in 61.3 PPG. One of the weaknesses of this team is their shooting — they rank last in the Mountain West Conference by making only 49.8% of their shots inside the arc. But they are more proficient when playing at home where they make 51.6% of their 2-pointers — and they rank 45th in the nation by nailing 39.1% of their 3-pointers when on their home court. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when favored. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They should build off their momentum from their victory against Utah State as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: Nevada will have revenge on their mind after losing by a 71-59 score on the road back on January 17th. Alford’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of his 10 head-to-head encounters against Dutcher — and his teams cover that point spread by an average of +4.05 points. Lastly, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and the Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB San Diego State-Nevada CBS Sports Network Special with the Nevada Wolf Pack (888) minus the point(s) versus the San Diego State Aztecs (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Morehead State Eagles (828) minus the points versus the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (827). THE SITUATION: Morehead State (18-5) has won five games in a row after their 67-60 victory at Tennessee Tech as an 11-point favorite on Saturday. SIU-Edwardsville (13-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 90-79 upset loss at UT-Martin as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Morehead State only made 42.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Eagles should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a straight-up victory against an Ohio Valley Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games after winning five or six of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread 11 times. Morehead State leads the Ohio Valley in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They return home where they have a 10-0 record with an average winning margin of +31.0 Points-Per-Game. They should shoot better tonight since they are nailing  50.8% of their shots and 37.5% of their shots from behind the arc en route to scoring 86.2 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 10 straight games at home with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored. SIU-Edwardsville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after an upset loss in conference play. And while they have won five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they have a 3-6 record while getting outscored by -6.5 PPG. They only make 39.1% of their shots away from home. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Morehead State wants to avenge a 61-48 upset loss on the road to SIU-Edwardsville on January 13th as a 5-point road favorite — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Morehead State Eagles (828) minus the points versus the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (800) minus the points versus Tarleton State (799). THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (9-13) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven after an 86-67 loss at home to Grand Canyon as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. Tarleton State (15-7) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 75-64 victory against Stephen F. Austin as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley only made 37.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after a point spread loss including five of those seven contests this season. And while they have given up 77 and 86 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played only twice in their previous seven games — and five of their six losses during their current 1-6 run have been on the road. Utah Valley has a 7-2 record at home with an average winning margin of +7.6 Points-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to 41.9% shooting which results in 67.4 PPG. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by six points or less or are a pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. Utah Valley leads the Western Athletic Conference in getting to the free throw line when playing at home. They also pull down 29.9% of their missed shots in conference play at home — and the Texans rank 10th in the WAC by allowing their opponents to rebound 37.0% of their missed shots when on the road against conference opponents. Tarleton State made 51.2% of their shots on Saturday while holding the Lumberjacks to just 41.2% shooting — and both those marks were their best efforts in their last five games. But the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three or more games in a row. They have scored 75 or more points in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Tarleton State has covered the point spread in three straight games and four of their last five games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they only make 41.8% of their shots and just 26.6% of their shots from behind the arc. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games when favored. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Valley Wolverines (800) minus the points versus Tarleton State (799). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Davidson Bulldogs (685) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (686). THE SITUATION: Davidson (12-9) has lost two games in a row after their 76-63 loss at Loyola-Chicago as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Duquesne (13-8) has won four straight games after their 85-71 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Davidson allowed the Ramblers to nail 46.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. Despite that performance, they have still held their last five opponents to just 39.1% shooting. The Bulldogs have endured several close losses — two of their setbacks were by one scoring possession and two more of their losses were in overtime. Davidson has rebounded to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 62 games after losing on the road to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row to conference opponents. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after losing three of their last four games. Davidson has been without David Skogman the last two games — and the 6’10 senior remains questionable with a foot injury. This play would probably be higher graded if there was confirmation he was returning to action tonight — but this situation remains worthy of investment. While the Bulldogs have not scored more than 63 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than 65 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have a 5-5 record — and they have covered 6 straight road games after playing on the road in their last contest. Duquesne nailed 52.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was their best shooting effort of the season. The Dukes still rank last in the Atlantic 10 Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in conference play. Duquesne has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss on the road. Additionally, the Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while their game with Rhode Island finished above the 146.5 point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They are only making 42.9% of their shots when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 130s. In their last five games, Duquesne is only making 41.8% of their shots resulting in 68.2 Points-Per-Game — and those are -4.4 PPG and -1.2 % below their season averages.

FINAL TAKE: Davidson beat Maryland on a neutral court earlier this season (although mentioning the Terrapins gives me terrible flashbacks to their painful offensive performance last night — and I knew what I was getting into when endorsing them). The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Davidson Bulldogs (685) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Carolina Catamounts (680) minus the points versus The Citadel Bulldogs (679). THE SITUATION: Western Carolina (16-7) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 88-86 upset loss in overtime at Wofford on Saturday. The Citadel (9-14) has lost three games in a row and nine of their last ten after a 62-60 loss at East Tennessee State.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CATAMOUNTS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Carolina comes off a frustrating loss where they lost by only two points in overtime despite only shooting 42.4% from the field and allowing the Terriers to nail 57.6% of their shots. The Catamounts have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after a game where they did not shoot better than 43% while allowing their opponent to make 57% or more of their shots from the field. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game. Western Carolina stayed competitive against Wofford by making 19 of their 23 shots from the free throw line — and they also nailed 11 of their 25 (44%) of their shots from behind the arc. They return home where they rank 22nd in the nation by making 40.2% of their 3-pointers. The Catamounts make 48.7% of their shots at home resulting in 84.2 Points-Per-Game -- and they are outscoring their guests by +14.6 PPG by holding them to just 40.3% shooting. Western Carolina has lost two games in overtime during the recent string of bad luck — their three other losses were by six, four, and three points. The Citadel held the Buccaneers to just 39.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 11 contests. But they only made four of their 23 shots (17.4%) from behind the arc in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not making more than 20% of their shots from 3-point range in their last contest. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Citadel ranks 283rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. The Catamounts hold their opponents to 41.1% shooting — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Citadel has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and Western Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. 8* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Western Carolina Catamounts (680) minus the points versus The Citadel Bulldogs (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (602) minus the points versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (601). THE SITUATION: Maryland (13-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 63-4 loss at Michigan State as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Rutgers (11-10) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 69-59 upset loss at Michigan as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: These two teams are mirror images of each other. Both squads play ferocious defense. Both head coaches bragged about the improved athleticism on the roster this season. Neither team can hit the side of the barn when shooting the basketball. And both teams are underachieving relative to their preseason NCAA Tournament aspirations — each squad’s highest-profile victory came against Nebraska so far this season. Maryland only made 30.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. They also allowed the Spartans to make 44.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 41 home games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Maryland relies too much on isolation plays when they have the basketball. But this approach does get them second-chance scoring opportunities and shots at the free-throw line — and these tactics should work against the Scarlet Knights.  The Terrapins rank 29th in the nation by pulling down 36.7% of their missed shots when playing at home — and Rutgers ranks 280th in the country by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.6% of their misses when playing away from home. Maryland also ranks 18th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and the Scarlet Knights are middle of the pack sixth in the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate in conference play. The Terrapins return home where they have a 10-2 record with an average winning margin of +13.9 net Points-Per-Game. Their lone losses were to Purdue and Michigan State which rank 2nd and 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Maryland holds their guests to 40.5% shooting which results in only 62.3 PPG. The Terps have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Maryland ranks 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the Big Ten in that metric in conference play. They also lead the Big Ten with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 46.8%. Now here comes Rutgers who ranks 300th in the nation and last in the Big Ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Scarlet Knights are even worse at shooting the basketball — they rank 358th in the nation with an eFG of 43.3% and are last in the Big Ten with their 41.2% eFG. They rallied from a 15-point halftime deficit to upset an implosion Wolverines team on Saturday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a double-digit win on the road. They stay on the road where they have a 2-7 record with an average losing margin of -8.1 PPG. Rutgers shoots only 39.0% on the road with a 30.3% clip from behind the arc resulting in 64.9 PPG. They are giving up 73.0 PPG away from home because their opponents are managing to make 44.1% of their shots which is not too shabby. The Scarlet Knights rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but their opponent’s effective goal percentage of 50.4% away from home drops to 105th in the nation. Rutgers has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Nine of the Terrapins' 12 victories at home against Division I opponents have been by nine or more points. They are better equipped to grind out these expected lower-scoring games. Maryland has covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set at 129.5 or lower — and Rutgers has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Maryland Terrapins (602) minus the points versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (601). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (730) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (729). THE SITUATION: Indiana State (19-3) is on a six-game winning streak after their 78-72 win at Belmont as an 8-point favorite on Wednesday. Drake (18-4) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 81-70 victory as a 20.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based mostly on them being perhaps the best pure shooting team in the country. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.1% — and they rank in the top four in the country in 3-point shooting, 2-point shooting, and free throw shooting. The Sycamores should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win against a Missouri Valley Conference opponent. They return home where they have a 9-0 record with an average winning margin of +26.5 net Points-Per-Game — and they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on their home court. They are holding their guests to 40.6% shooting at home resulting in 64.1 PPG. They are also making 52.6% of their shots at home including 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 90.6 PPG. Indiana State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 150s. The Sycamores have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit win on their home court. They outrebounded the Beacons by a 48-30 margin in that contest — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outrebounding their previous opponent by +15 or more boards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have lost all four of their games this season. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning their previous two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Drake’s defense wanes when playing away from home — they rank 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They can struggle to stop good shooters — they rank  255th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.2% when playing on the road with these teams making 36.5% of their shots from behind the arc.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana State will be looking to avenge an 89-78 loss at Drake back on January 10th. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 20* CBB Drake-Indiana State ESPN2 Special with Indiana State Sycamores (730) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (729). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Lipscomb Bisons (306610) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306609). THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (13-10) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 85-76 loss at North Florida as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Jacksonville (11-11) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 63-43 upset win against Austin Peay as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BISONS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite their 4-4 record in the Atlantic Sun Conference, Lipscomb still ranks as the top team in the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency Margins of Ken Pomeroy — and they have an impressive victory against Florida State this season. The Bisons have been resilient after losses this season — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They need to tighten up on defense after allowing 85 and 80 points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +18.0 net Points-Per-Game. Lipscomb has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home including five of their last six boarded home games this season. They are holding their guests to just 41.6% shooting resulting in 75.1 PPG. But it is the Bison’s shooting on their home court that sets them apart. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.7% when playing at home — they are nailing 55.1% of their shots resulting in 93.1 PPG when in front of their home fans. Lipscomb is second in the Atlantic Sun by hitting 40.3% of their 3-pointers — and they rank third in the nation by converting 45.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. They should make a ton of 3s this afternoon against this Dolphins team that is ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 37.2% of their 3-pointers — and they rank 352nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert 39.7% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road. Jacksonville made 47.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games — and by holding the Governors to 34.0% shooting, they enjoyed their best defensive performance in their last 11 contests. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. Jacksonville leads the conference by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — but the Bisons protect their defensive glass by limiting their conference opponents to rebounding just 24.3% of their misses, ranking second in the Atlantic Sun. The Dolphins stay on the road where they have a 3-10 record with an average losing margin of -15.6 net PPG. They only make 42.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 67.2 PPG. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as a double-digit underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s — and Lipscomb has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Game of the Year with the Lipscomb Bisons (306610) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306609). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (696) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (695). THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (9-12) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 77-72 loss as a 6.5-point underdog on Thursday. Grand Canyon (20-2) has won three games in a row as well as 17 of their last 18 contests after a 95-88 win in overtime against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a point-spread victory. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have a 7-1 record this season with an average winning margin of +10.9 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 41.8% shooting resulting in 65.1 PPG. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home including five of their last six contests on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing for the second time in three days. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning eight or more of their last ten contests. Now on short rest, they go back on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in conference play.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines look to avenge a 78-65 loss at Grand Canyon as a 13.5-point underdog back on January 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities for same-season revenge. 8* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Utah Valley Wolverines (696) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (890) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (889). THE SITUATION: Nevada (16-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 89-55 loss at New Mexico as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Jose State (8-13) has lost four games in a row after their 82-61 loss at Utah State as a 13.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada played their worst game of the season on Sunday on the road in The Pit. Their 33.9% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort of the season — and it was the worst defensive performance of the season by allowing the Lobos to nail 58.6% of their shots. This is a get-right game for this team. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 30 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing four of their last five games. Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. They rank Nevada ranks 51st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Head coach Steve Alford’s team has a high floor given the strong fundamentals that he has instilled into this team. The Wolf Pack ranks 26th in the nation by turning the ball over in 14.4% of their possessions. They also get to the free throw line as they rank ninth in the nation in free throw rate — and they host a Spartans team that ranks 242nd in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line. Nevada returns home where they have a 10-1 record this season with an average winning margin of +17.3 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 38.4% shooting resulting in 61.5 PPG. They also make 48.8% of their shots at home including 37.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 78.8 PPG. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying 9.5 to 12 points. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss on the road. The troubling dynamic of this team that makes a bounce-back unlikely is their cratering play on defense. The Spartans rank last in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after allowing their last five opponents to nail 56.5% of their shots resulting in 81.2 PPG. The Aggies made 60.0% of their shots against them on Tuesday which was the fifth straight game they have allowed an opponent to make 50.7% or more of their shots. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after allowing their previous opponent to make 60% or more of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after allowing four or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. And while the Spartans have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Nevada’s biggest weakness is their defensive rebounding — they rank last in the conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.1% of their missed shots. But San Jose State is not equipped to take advantage of this weakness — they are only pulling down 25.8% of their missed shots which ranks tenth in the MWC. The Spartans stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These teams last played last March 9th in the Mountain West Conference tournament when San Jose State upset the Wolf Pack by an 81-77 score. Nevada will have revenge on their mind from that loss — and this Spartans team does not have the size or depth of that 21-win team. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games when favored. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Nevada Wolf Pack (890) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (790) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Wisconsin Badgers (789). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (15-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-51 loss at Maryland as a 5-point underdog last Saturday. Wisconsin (16-4) has won three games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 81-66 victory against Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Nebraska has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games for a loss to a Big Ten rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a loss on the road. They turn home where they have a 13-1 record with an average winning margin of +13.1 net Points-Per-Game. Nebraska holds their guests to just 39.3% shooting resulting in 67.6 PPG. They are also making 46.2% of their shots at home resulting in 80.7 PPG. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games in conference play. Additionally, Nebraska has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. The Cornhuskers' best attribute is their 3-point shooting — they rank second in the Big Ten by making 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc. Even better, Nebraska is nailing 48.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in conference play. The Badgers are vulnerable to outside shooting, especially on the road where they rank 351st in the nation with their home hosts making 40.0% of their 3-pointers. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after three or more conference games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored or a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Cornhuskers will be looking to avenge an 88-72 loss at Wisconsin as a 5-point underdog back on January 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge on their minds. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (790) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Wisconsin Badgers (789). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (718) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (717). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (8-13) has lost two games in a row and four of their last five contests after an 85-82 loss in overtime at UL-Monroe as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Southern Mississippi (12-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 83-67 loss at Marshall as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State only made 32.9% of their shots on Sunday which was the second-worst shooting effort of the season and their worst effort in 16 games. Under head coach Bryan Hodgson, the Red Wolves lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four of their last five games. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Red Wolves return home for the first time since January 13th where they have a 5-2 record along with an average winning margin of +9.4 Points-Per-Game. On their home court is where Hodgson’s offensive attack explodes — the former assistant for Nate Oats at Alabama has his team rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Arkansas State makes 50.4% of their shots at home resulting in 88.4 PPG which is +10.1 PPG above their season average. Hodgson plays the math game by having his team take 46.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 24th in the nation. Arkansas State ranks second in the conference by making 37.1% of their 3-pointers — and they rank 17th in the nation by hitting 42.3% of their shots from behind the arc when at home. They should hit plenty of 3-pointers against this Golden Eagles squad that ranks 342nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.2% of their shots from 3-point range. The Red Wolves should also get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they rank 63rd in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — and Southern Mississippi allows their opponents to rebound 31.4% of their missed shots, ranking 272nd in the nation. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 2 road games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. Southern Mississippi lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with the Red Wolves when they are playing at home. The Golden Eagles rank 12th in the Sun Belt by making only 46.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they have scored less than 70 points in four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have a 5-8 record while getting outscored by -6.5 PPG. Southern Mississippi makes only 42.4% of their shots on the road resulting in only 69.5 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 49 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State is looking to avenge a 69-66 upset loss at Southern Mississippi as a 3-point underdog on January 17th. The Red Wolves get this rematch at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (718) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (306638) minus the points versus the Morgan State Bears (306637). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (13-8) has won three straight games after their 68-58 victory against Coppin State as a 15-point favorite on Saturday. Morgan State (6-14) has won two straight games after their 85-79 upset victory as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Norfolk State is the top-ranked team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference according to Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Net Efficiency metrics — and they have an impressive non-conference victory against VCU. The Spartans missed all of their 12 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after nailing no more than 20% of their shots from behind the arc. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit win at home. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home after winning four of their last five contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when playing with only one day of rest. They stay at home where they are 9-0 with an average winning margin of +33.3 net Points-Per-Game. Norfolk State holds their opponents to just 36.3% shooting resulting in only 60.6 PPG. They also nail 52.0% of their shots at home resulting in 93.9 PPG. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Norfolk has several ways to generate extra-scoring possessions to help them blow out the Bears. They rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Morgan State is very vulnerable on this front as they rank 338th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.9% of their possessions. The Spartans also lead the MEAC by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots in conference play — and the Bears rank last in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 38.3% of their missed shots. Furthermore, Norfolk State ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free throw line where they make 75.7% of their freebies (47th in the nation) — and Morgan State ranks 331st in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line. The Bears made 54.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting performance in their last eight games. But Morgan State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset victory. That final score finished Over the 153.5-point total — but the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have a 1-11 record with an average losing margin of -18.3 net PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 49.3% of their shots including 36.3% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 83.7 PPG. Morgan State makes only 40.9% of their shots on the road including just 29.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 65.4 PPG. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set from 145 to 149.5.

FINAL TAKE: Morgan State ranks 323rd and 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when laying 12.5 to 15 points. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Norfolk State Spartans (306638) minus the points versus the Morgan State Bears (306637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brigham Young Cougars (662) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (661). THE SITUATION: BYU (14-5) has lost two games in a row after their 75-68 loss against Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Texas (14-5) has won two games in a row after their 75-60 upset victory at Oklahoma as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has lost four of their last six games as they experience the gauntlet of Big 12 play. Those four losses were against conference opponents that all rank in the top 32 teams according to Ken Pomeroy’s Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin ratings. The Cougars have registered quality wins against Iowa State and San Diego State which rank 12th and 22nd according to those Pomeroy rankings. This is a balanced team that ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Pomeroy’s metrics. BYU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after playing three or more games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have a 10-2 record this season with an average winning margin of +25.9 net Points-Per-Game. The Cougars hold their guests to just 39.6% shooting resulting in just 62.8 PPG. They also nail 48.4% of their shots at home resulting in 88.7 PPG. BYU has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 150s. Texas played their best defensive game in their last six games by holding the Sooners to just 39.3% shooting. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. Texas has scored 71 or more points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row. And in their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of those contests. The Longhorns rank just 30th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are even worse on the other end of the court where they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed their last five opponents to make     47.2% of their shots even after their strong effort against Oklahoma. Interior defense is a weakness as Texas allows Big 12 opponents to make 52.2% of their inside the arc — and BYU ranks seventh in the nation by converting 62.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home. The Longhorns stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.9 PPG due to them surrendering 77.3 PPG which is +10.3 PPG above their season average. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Cougars have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Brigham Young Cougars (662) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (661). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (809) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (810). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-5) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 77-60 upset loss against Saint Mary’s as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Gonzaga (13-5) has won four of their last five games with their 105-63 win at San Diego as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DONS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco only made 41.2% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They also allowed the Gaels to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Dons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread 7 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They go back on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +5.6 net Points-Per-Game — and they hold these home teams to just 41.4% shooting from the field. The Bulldogs average 64 shots per game — but San Francisco has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams who launch 64 or more shots per game. Gonzaga nailed 56.5% of their shots last Saturday which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last ten games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after making 55% or more of their short in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win by 15 or more points. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while the Dons hold their opponents to just 40.9% shooting, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who are not allowing their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games against teams with a winning record. San Francisco is outscoring their opponents by +15.9 PPG — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 8* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco Dons (809) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (742) plus the points versus the Colorado Rockies (741). THE SITUATION: Washington (11-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 90-80 loss at Stanford as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Colorado (14-5) has won three games in a row after their 90-57 win against Oregon State as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington allowed the Cardinal to nail 50.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a loss by ten or more points. They return home where they have a 7-2 record with an average winning margin of +10.1 Points-Per-Game. Washington should play better on the defensive end of the court tonight where they hold their guests to 41.9% shooting and a mere 27.4% clip from behind the arc resulting in 69.1 PPG. The Huskies also make 48.9% of their shots including 38.9% of their 3-pointers at home resulting in 79.2 PPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog of six points or less. Colorado nailed 52.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests — and they played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Beavers to just 33.3% shooting. The Buffaloes have won three games in a row by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after two or more double-digit victories in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after beating three or more conference rivals in a row. This is Colorado’s third game since last Thursday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing for the third time in seven days. The Buffaloes go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road when favored or a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Washington looks to avenge a 73-69 loss at Colorado as an 8.5-point underdog on December 29th — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Washington Huskies (742) plus the points versus the Colorado Rockies (741). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (650) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (649). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (15-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-66 upset loss at Boise State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Wyoming (10-8) has won two games in a row with their 98-93 upset win against Nevada as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss on the road against a Mountain West Conference rival. They return where they are 9-0 with an average winning margin of +17.4 Points-Per-Game. The Aztecs hold their opponents to just 38.1% shooting resulting in 58.9 Points-Per-game when playing at home. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Wyoming nailed 57.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting performance for them all season. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road coming off a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Wyoming goes back on the road where they are just 3-7 with an average losing margin of -9.5 PPG. They are only making 42.1% of their shots including just 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in only 67.9 PPG on the road. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road. Wyoming struggles to take advantage of their possessions since they turn the ball over 21.2% of the time, ranking 343rd in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 32.6% of their missed shots when on the road, ranking 300th in the nation when playing on the road. The Aztecs lead the Mountain West Conference by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in all 4 of their games this season as a double-digit underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. 8* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (650) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (623) plus the point(s) versus the Bowling Green Falcons (624). THE SITUATION: Kent State (9-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 77-71 loss to Akron in a pick ‘em contest on Friday. Bowling Green (14-4) has won four games in a row as well as 12 of their last 13 contests after their 84-79 victory against Western Michigan as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINT(S): In head coach Rob Senderoff we trust to right the ship for his team tonight — Kent State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. Under Senderoff’s leadership, the Golden Flashes have won at least 19 games in the last nine non-shortened COVID seasons (and his 2020-21 team that season was 15-8). Kent State won the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season before losing to Indiana in the Big Dance. While the top three scorers from that team moved on, the front court that was the foundation of that team is back. Chris Payton has emerged as one of the best players in the conference with the forward scoring 14.1 Points-Per-Game on 50.3% shooting and 8.1 Rebounds-Per-Game. Jalen Sullinger has moved into the starting lineup this season to score 14.3 PPG while making 39.8% of his 3-pointers. The Golden Flashes lead the MAC by nailing 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They should have success from downtown against this Falcons team that ranks 263rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.2% of their 3-pointers — and visiting teams are nailing 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. Conference opponents are making 38.9% of their 3-pointers against the Falcons. Kent State has lost both of their games that went into overtime this season -- or perhaps their record would be better. They still rank as the fourth-best team in the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin metrics of Ken Pomeroy — and Bowling Green ranks fifth in the MAC according to those numbers. Another power rankings system places Kent State as the 173rd best team in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they rise to 154th in the nation when playing away from home. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as an underdog getting up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 150s. Bowling Green has scored 78 or more points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Falcons have overachieved under first-year head coach Todd Simon who they hired away from Southern Utah in the offseason. Injuries have led Simon to rely on essentially a seven-man rotation. They have benefited from an overtime win against Eastern Michigan and a two-point victory against Southern Indiana. Their five victories in conference play have been against opponents who have a combined 11-18 record in the MAC. Bowling Green stays at home where they have a 9-1 record — but they rank just 245th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their 141st rank when playing away from according to those second set of power rankings I consider. The Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points. Simon’s offense relies on a fast pace and drawing fouls — they lead the Mid-American Conference in free throw rate. But the Golden Flashes have the third-best opponent free throw rate in the conference. Kent State nails 45.2% of their shots from the field while averaging eight made 3s per game. Bowling Green has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 45% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.  

FINAL TAKE: Kent State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Kent State Golden Flashes (623) plus the point(s) versus the Bowling Green Falcons (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Lamar Cardinals (306644) minus the points versus the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions (306643). THE SITUATION: Lamar (9-9) looks to snap a two-game losing streak after their 78-77 upset loss at  Houston-Christian as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas A&M-Commerce (7-10) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 68-52 upset win at Southeast Louisiana on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Lamar opened their Southland Conference schedule with three straight victories before losing at Incarnate Word and then Houston-Christian. They allowed the Huskies to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Cardinals have allowed at least 76 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. Now after playing their three games on the road, Lamar returns home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game with them scoring 90.9 PPG. The Cardinals should play better on defense tonight since they hold their guests to 40.0% shooting on their home court. Lamar has covered the point spread in all 4 of their boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 boarded home games with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after playing two or more games in a row on the road. Furthermore, Lamar has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing their last two games on the road. And while they did not cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Cardinals should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. They rank 67th in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — and they improve to 23rd in the country by rebounding 37.7% of their missed shots when playing at home. The Lions rank 342nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.7% of their missed shots — and when on the road, their opponents rebound 36.7% of their missed shots. Texas A&M-Commerce nailed 45.6% of their shots on Saturday to break their losing streak in what was the best shooting performance in their last five games. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread this season. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time on the road in the last three days. Texas A&M-Commerce is just 2-7 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by -18.1 net PPG. They only make 37.1% of their shots away from home resulting in just 57.3 PPG which is -16.2 fewer PPG than their season average. The Lions live-and-die by the 3 — they rank 9th in the nation by taking 48.9% of their shots from behind the arc. But they only make 28.8% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 338th in the nation — and that mark drops to just 24.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home, ranking 357th in the nation. Texas A&M-Commerce averages 10 mades 3s per game from 30 shot attempts from behind the arc per game — but Lamar usually exceeds point spread expectations when facing teams like this. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams who average at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games against opponents who average at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game.

FINAL TAKE: Lamar has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. 25* CBB Southland Conference Game of the Month with the Lamar Cardinals (306644) minus the points versus the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions (306643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (697) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (698). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 78-77 upset loss at Arkansas as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. LSU (11-6) has won five of their last six games after their 89-80 win against Ole Miss as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road. The Aggies are reliable when playing on the road because they lead the nation by pulling down 44.2% of their missed shots — and offensive rebounding travels. They should have success against this Tigers team that allows their opponents to pull down 30.1% of their missed shots, ranking 224th in the nation. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. LSU nailed 48.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting mark in their last four contests. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win against a fellow SEC rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 75 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning four or five of their last six games. LSU stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies will have revenge on their minds after getting upset at home to LSU by a 68-53 score as an 11.5-point favorite on January 6th. They could not hit the side of a barn in that game as they only made 25.4% of their shots including missing 23 of their 28 shots from behind the arc in what was their worst shooting performance of the season. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home by ten or more points. 20* CBB Texas A&M-LSU ESPNU Special with the Texas A&M Aggies (697) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (698). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (890) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (889). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in an 87-73 upset loss at Penn State as a  5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Indiana (12-6) has lost two of their last three games with an 87-66 loss to Purdue as a 9.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin allowed the Nittany Lions to make 53.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just 42.0% shooting which results in 65.7 Points-Per-Game. Wisconsin has a 9-1 record at home with an average winning margin of +13.9 PPG. They are nailing 50.9% of their shots at home resulting in 79.6 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. Now they go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -7.0 PPG. The Hoosiers rank 71st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — but the other end of the court has been even worse for them as they rank 184th on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Indiana’s most reliable trait with the basketball is getting to the free throw line — they rank 24th in the nation in free throw rate. But the Badgers lead the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate — and they also lead the conference by holding their opponents to rebounding only 19.6% of their missed shots. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. The Hoosiers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and their explosive offense has helped them win 10 of their 13 games by double-digits this season. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow Big Ten rivals. 10* CBB Indiana-Wisconsin FS1-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (890) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Canisius Golden Griffins (883) plus the points versus the Iona Gaels (884). THE SITUATION: Canisius (7-9) has lost five of their last six games after their 88-63 upset loss at home to Fairfield as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Iona (7-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 87-70 win against Mount St. Mary’s as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GRIFFINS: Canisius played their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Stags to nail 57.1% of their shots. The Golden Griffins have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. Canisius should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss to a Metro Atlantic Athletic Association rival, the Golden Griffins have covered the point spread 6 times. Iona made 52.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they are just 4-3 with an average winning margin of just +5.8 Points-Per-Game under first-year head coach Tobin Anderson who replaced Rick Pitino in the offseason. Iona has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Griffins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. 8* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Canisius Golden Griffins (883) plus the points versus the Iona Gaels (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Merrimack Warriors (306546) minus the points versus the Wagner Seahawks (306545). THE SITUATION: Merrimack (9-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 75-70 upset loss at Central Connecticut State as a 1-point favorite on Monday. Wagner (8-7) has won four of their last five games after a 64-54 victory against Stonehill as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Merrimack has won the Northeast Conference regular season title in two of their four seasons at the Division I level — and they won both the regular season crown and the conference tournament last year. Now eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament, there is an additional excitement around the program. Head coach Joe Gallo has overseen the only program in the NEC to not have a losing record in the last four seasons in conference play. And while the program lost its top three players in the transfer portal to bigger programs, they still have sophomore Jordan Derkack who has emerged into being the leading candidate to win Conference Player of the Year honors.  For Gallo, it all starts with the tricky 2-3 zone he deploys to frustrate their opponents. The Warriors rank 44th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.6%. Merrimack also forces turnovers — they rank ninth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.9% of their opponent’s possessions. Gallo had his players' attention this week after they allowed Central Connecticut State to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Warriors have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a Northeast Conference rival. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by six points or less. And in their last 21 games after winning two of their last three games, they have covered the point spread 13 times. They return home to play for just the seventh time this season. They beat UMass-Lowell out of the American East on their home court by six points in a quality win since the River Hawks are projected to compete for their conference title. The Warriors rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court where they are undefeated — and they have a 13-game winning streak at home going back to last season. With the addition of 7’0 Jacob O’Connell to this year’s squad, Merrimack is playing better interior defense — they rank 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.0% shooting inside the arc. Wagner is going to struggle to score tonight — they rank 353rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.6%. The Seahawks made only 40.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 306th in the nation — and that mark drops to 39.0% when playing away from home, ranking 360th in the nation. They did make 46.8% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row in conference play by double-digits. Additionally, while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four. Wagner has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5-9 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have held their last two opponents to just 54 and 56 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row. Wagner is vulnerable inside — they allow their opponents to make 51.8% of their shots inside the arc. Led by Derkack, the Warriors make 52.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 120th in the nation. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Month with the Merrimack Warriors (306546) minus the points versus the Wagner Seahawks (306545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (840) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (839). THE SITUATION: Colorado (12-5) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 68-58 victory against USC as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon (13-3) has won six games in a row after their 80-73 win against California as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES MINUS THE POINTS: Colorado should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory at home against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory. And while they have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are 10-0 with an average winning margin of +18.9 Points-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win at home against a Pac-12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference rivals. And while this is just their second game since January 6th, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days.

FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games against the Ducks — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Oregon when hosting them in Boulder after their 68-41 victory as a 3-point favorite on January 5th of last year. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado Buffaloes (840) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (819) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (820). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-61 upset loss at UCLA as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. California (6-11) has lost four of their last six games after their 80-73 loss at Oregon as an 8-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington laid an egg against a struggling Bruins team. Their 40.4% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed UCLA to make 50.0% of their shots which was the second opponent’s field goal percentage they surrendered all season. The Huskies should rebound with a strong effort as they typically do under head coach Mike Hopkins. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss against a Pac-12 rival. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after failing to cover the point spread twice in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Hopkins hit the transfer portal in the offseason to upgrade the talent on his roster — and he has two former Kentucky players leading this team. Sahyr Wheeler gives him his first pass-first point guard in his tenure at Washington — and Keion Brooks is in contention for Pac-12 Player of the Year. Washington has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 150s. California has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Golden Bears return home where they are only 5-4 with an average winning margin of +1.8 Points-Per-Game. Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Golden Bears are considered underrated due to four losses by three points or less along with two other losses in overtime — but the Huskies have similar claims that they could easily have a better record. Washington has lost five of their games by five points or less including an overtime loss to San Diego State. They have registered high-profile victories against Gonzaga and Xavier that Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 25th and 26th best teams in the nation according to his net Adjusted Efficiency Margin metrics. All the computer models I follow project the Huskies as a small favorite — so the market may be overvaluing Cal’s close losses.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range.  Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the Washington Huskies (819) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (720) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (719). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (13-3) has lost two games in a row after their 78-66 loss at Kansas as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. West Virginia (6-10) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 76-73 upset win against Texas as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma only made 40.0% of their shots against the Jayhawks which was the lowest shooting percentage for them all season. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they are 10-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.8 net Points-Per-Game. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they are 0-5 with an average losing margin of -10.8 net PPG. They are only making 38.1% of their shots on the road resulting in just 64.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games. 8* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Oklahoma Sooners (720) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (719). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Southern Illinois Salukis (708) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (707). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (12-5) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 76-58 loss at home to Drake as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bradley (12-5) has won six games in a row after their 77-59 victory as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SALUKIS PLUS THE POINT(S): Southern Illinois might have played their worst game of the season against a good Drake team that is second in the Missouri Valley Conference by ranking 66th in Adjusted Efficiency Margin according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Salukis made only 36.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home where they did not score more than 60 points. They only scored 2 points in the first half against Drake — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their previous game. And by allowing the Bulldogs to nail 56.4% of their shots, Southern Illinois played their worst defensive game of the season. But the Salukis have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. After losing two All-Conference players from last year’s team that finished 14-6 in conference play, head coach Bryan Mullins gotten this group playing competing once again for a Missouri Valley Conference title with a 4-2 start in conference play. Southern Illinois has a 9-2 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +14.3 net Points-Per-Game. They are making 48.2% of their shots at home while holding their opponents to just 41.4% shooting — so they should play better tonight on both ends of the court. The Salukis have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home with the Total set in the 130s. They match up well with the Braves who take 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc (ranking 81st in the nation) — and they average 24 shots from 3-point land per game. Southern Illinois ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to 26.4% shooting from behind the arc — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams who average 21 or more shots from 3-point land per game. The Salukis also rank fourth in the MVC in getting to the free throw line — and Bradley ranks 10th in the conference in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, Bradley leads the MVC by pulling down 35.7% of their shots — but Southern Illinois holds their conference opponents to rebounding only 23.2% of their missed shots. The Braves have covered the point spread in four straight games as well as five of their last six boarded games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven boarded games. And while Bradley has not allowed more than 64 points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 65 points in five or more games in a row. The Braves are also 4-2 in conference play — but they miss center Rienk Mast’s scoring from last year’s team that won the regular season crown. Bradley only makes 45.0% of their shots including 34.9% from behind the arc when playing away from home. The Braves failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Month with the Southern Illinois Salukis (708) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (732) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (731). THE SITUATION: Marquette (11-4) looks to rebound from their 78-75 upset loss at Seton Hall as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Butler (10-5) has lost three games in a row after their 88-81 loss to Connecticut as a 5-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Marquette allowed the Pirates to nail 52.7% of their shots on Saturday which was tied for their worst defensive effort all season. But this team has been resilient under head coach Shaka Smart. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Marquette got outworked on the boards by getting outrebounded by a 43-25 margin — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after getting outrebounded by -15 or more Rebounds-Per-Game. And while their game with Seton Hall finished above the 144-point total, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Marquette ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank eighth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.6% of their opponent’s possessions. They are a battle-tested team whose seven Quad One opponents are tied for the most of all the teams that rank in the top 100 in the NET ratings. They return home where they have a 37-4 record under Smart while riding a 19-game winning streak. The Golden Eagles have won all eight of their games at home this season by an average margin of +21.1 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 40.6% resulting in 64.0 PPG. On the other end of the court, Marquette is making 48.6% of their shots including 36.5% of their 3-point attempts at home resulting in 85.1 PPG. They also rank 20th in the nation by making 56.3% of their shots inside the arc at home — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Bulldogs who rank 292nd in the nation by allowing their home hosts to shoot 55.3% inside the arc when they are playing on the road. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 150s including 10 of their last 12 games at home with the Total in the 150s — and Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 150s. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last six boarded games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. This is just their second game since January 2nd — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when playing their second game in eight days including failing to cover the point spread in five of those six circumstances this season. They go back on the road where they are just 2-4 — and they have lost their true road games in a hostile environment by double-digits. They score -8.3 fewer PPG and make -3.5% fewer shots from the field when on the road versus their season average. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games as an underdog in all situations.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games in January — and the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games in January. 10* CBB Butler-Marquette CBS Sports Network Special with the Marquette Golden Eagles (732) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (731). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (634) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (633). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (11-3) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 71-63 loss at Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Houston (14-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 89-55 victory against West Virginia as a 19.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State played their worst game of the season on Saturday. They only made 42.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. They also allowed the Sooners to make 47.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. Despite those results in Norman, Iowa State still ranks fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank third in the nation in that defensive metric when playing on their home court. Nothing like hosting an undefeated Cougars team ranked number one in the nation by most laptops to redeem oneself from a bad effort. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They return home where they are 9-0 this season with a whopping +38.1 net Points-Per-Game margin. Iowa State is very tough to score on when they are playing at home — they hold their opponents to just 35.7% shooting resulting in 53.3 Points-Per-Game. The Cyclones should shoot much better tonight even against the outstanding Houston defense. Iowa State makes 53.3% of their shots at home including 43.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 91.4 PPG. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 games at home this season. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Houston nailed 53.1% of their shots against the Mountaineers on Saturday which was their best shooting effort of the season. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Houston scored 81 points in their previous game against Pennsylvania — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 80 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by 20 or more points against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points against a conference opponent. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on their home court. This is Houston’s only second true road game in a hostile environment — they previously won at Xavier by six points to hand the Mountaineers one of their seven losses already this season. The Cougars will likely struggle to score. Their 69.2 PPG scoring average on the road is -7.7 PPG below their season average — and their 41.3% field goal percentage away from home is -3.3% below their season average. Houston also struggles to make their free throws — they rank 306th in the nation by making only 66.8% of their shots at the charity stripe. The Cougars also rank 196th in the nation by making only 49.6% of their shots inside the arc — so easy baskets are going to be hard to come by. Houston also puts their opponents on the free throw line — they rank 290th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. This is an area of strength for the Cyclones as they rank 25th in the nation in free throw rate when they have the basketball.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars play at a fast pace — they average 62 shot attempts per game. But Iowa State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against opponents who average 62 or more shot attempts per game. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games against teams with an 80% or higher winning percentage. 10* CBB Houston-Iowa State ESPN2 Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (634) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (612) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (611). THE SITUATION: Clemson (11-2) looks to rebound from their 95-82 loss at Miami (FL) as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. North Carolina (10-3) has won three games in a row with their 70-57 win at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS:  The Tigers allowed the Hurricanes to nail 53.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. After going into that game holding their opponents to 69.0 Points-Per-Game, Miami (FL) scored 60 potions against them in the second half. Clemson has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss to a conference foe. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They return home where they are unbeaten in their six games with an average winning margin of +21.6 PPG. They hold their guests to just 39.7% shooting on their home court resulting in just 66.2 PPG. But after only making 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday — their lowest field goal percentage in their last four games — they should shoot much better this afternoon. The Tigers make 51.1% of their shots from the field at home including 43.0% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 87.8 PPG. North Carolina held the Panthers to 30.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten contests. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a road victory against an ACC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory on the road. And while they have won six of their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. North Carolina stays on the road this week for just their second true road game all season in a hostile environment.

FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games as a pick ‘em or underdog of up to six points. 10* CBB North Carolina-Clemson ESPN2 Special with the Clemson Tigers (612) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (611). Best of luck for us —  Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (780) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (779). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (4-9) has lost two games in a row after their 91-90 loss at Georgia State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia Southern (1-12) ended their 12-game losing streak to start the season with an 88-67 victory at home against Southern Mississippi as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games are losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. They have all covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home to play for just the fourth time this season. They have a 2-1 record on their home — but they have outscored those three guests by +9.7 Points-Per-Game. The Red Wolves have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 43 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Georgia Southern nailed 15 of their 29 shots (51.7%) from behind the arc for en route to posting a 57.6% shooting percentage in the game which was their best offensive effort of the season. And they played their best game on the other end of the court in their last four games by holding the Golden Eagles to 38.7% shooting. The Eagles live by the three and die by the three — they rank 12th in the nation by taking 47.8% of their shots from 3-point range but they only make 34.4% of these shots ranking 126th in the country which explains their terrible record. Facing Arkansas State presents a bad matchup for them since the Red Wolves rank 40th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 29.5% shooting from behind the arc. Georgia Southern ranks 299th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are 304th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. And while their win against Southern Mississippi finished Over the 143-point Total in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a game that finished Over the Total. They go back on the road where they are 0-9 this season while getting outscored by -16.2 PPG. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog or a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles do not match up well with the Red Wolves due to their defensive rebounding as well. Georgia Southern ranks 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.9% of their missed shots — and Arkansas State ranks 69th in the nation by rebounding 33.1% of their missed shots. 20* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (780) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (779). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (647) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (648) in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic. THE SITUATION: Nevada (11-1) reached the title game of this holiday tournament with their 88-75 upset win against TCU as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Georgia Tech (8-3) joined them in this title game with a 73-68 upset victory against Hawai’i on their home court as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawai’i.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They did allow the Horned Frogs to make 45.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. TCU was the pre-tournament favorite to win this event. Nevada ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Head coach Steve Alford’s team has a high floor given the strong fundamentals that he has instilled into this team. The Wolf Pack ranks 12th in the nation by turning the ball over in 13.6% of their possessions. They also get to the free throw line as they rank seventh in the nation in free throw rate. Nevada has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing with only one day or less of rest. Georgia Tech has pulled off three straight upsets in this tournament after beating Penn State and UMass before their victory against the Rainbow Warriors on Friday. For the record, none of those three teams are ranked in the top 100 teams in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Yellow Jackets do have nice wins against Duke and Mississippi State this season — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against opponents making at least 45% of their shots and holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. The Wolf Pack are nailing 47.3% of their shots while holding their opponents to 39.0% shooting. First-year head coach Damon Stoudemire is doing a nice job with this team. They have played much better since he started playing Nathan George. After not even playing in the first few games, the freshman is now the team’s starting point guard. But with freshman Baye Ndongu also in the starting lineup, this is a young team that may be particularly susceptible to a letdown. Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a victory by six points or less in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning four or five o their last six games. The Yellow Jackets thrive by crashing the glass — they rank seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 37.6% of their missed shots. But getting second chance opportunities will be difficult against Nevada who hold their opponents to rebounding only 25.0% of their missed shots, ranking 50th in the nation. Georgia Tech’s problem is they lack a Plan B to generate points. They are making only 29.0% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 316th in the nation. They only force turnovers in 13.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 352nd in the nation (as if forcing Wolf Pack turnovers was a viable strategy anyway).

FINAL TAKE: Nevada has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. 25* CBB Diamond Head Classic Game of the Year with the Nevada Wolf Pack (647) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (665) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (666) in the Garden Classic. THE SITUATION: Baylor (9-1) looks to rebound from their 88-64 upset loss to Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (7-3) returns to the court for the first time since their 89-68 win against Hofstra as a 15.5-point favorite last Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The word came out at 6 PM ET that the Blue Devils will not have the services of their point guard Tyrese Proctor for the third straight game as he recovers from a leg injury that has kept him out of their previous two games. In this showdown with an outstanding Baylor team, Duke will miss his 10.3 Points-Per-Game and 4.5 Assists-Per-Game — and he is the team’s best on-the-ball defender. After an upset loss at Georgia Tech early in the month, the Blue Devils followed up their 80-56 victory against Charlotte with their win against the Pride last week. But Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 9 games under head coach Jon Scheyer after winning their two previous games by double-digits. The Blue Devils nailed 55.0% of their shots against Hofstra which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. Duke’s defense was shaky in that game last week as they allowed the Pride to make 50% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in a game where they were the favorite. Duke has been the favorite in all of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their 25 games under Scheyer after being the point spread favorite in their previous four or more games. We suspected that Baylor was due for a flat performance against the Spartans on Saturday that Michigan State was desperate to win — and the Bears dug a big hole for themselves by trailing at halftime by a 45-17 score. They allowed Sparty to make 63.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season — but Baylor has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 60% or more of their shots. They shot 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last contest. Additionally, Baylor has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Bears lead the nation by making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they could exploit a Duke team that ranks 225th in the nation by allowing their opponents to take 38.6% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range. Baylor takes 46% of their shots at the rim — and they rank 20th in the nation in free throw rate. They also rank eighth in the nation by pulling down 38.5% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 10* CBB Baylor-Duke ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (665) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (626) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (625). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-5) has lost two straight games and three of their last four contests with their 77-70 upset loss at Nebraska as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baylor (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 78-60 victory against Seton Hall as an 11-point favorite back on December 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State opened the season ranked fourth in the nation in the AP poll — but a difficult early schedule, some bad luck, and poor shooting has contributed to an underwhelming 4-5 start. The Spartans opened the season with an overtime loss at home to a James Madison team that remains unbeaten. They then lost to highly-rated Duke and Arizona. They hosted a good Wisconsin team in their Big Ten opener in a loss — and they then lost at Nebraska last weekend in their first true road game of the season by playing their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Cornhuskers to make 50.0% of their shots. The Spartans still rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The silver lining from that loss to Nebraska was that they made 8 of 17 (47.1%) of their shots from behind the arc. Sparty has been ice cold from deep this season as they rank 301st in the nation by making only 29.5% of their shots from 3-point range. Despite this slow start, Michigan State still ranks 33rd in the nation according to the metrics by Ken Pomeroy. The Spartans also rank 23rd in the country in another power ranking system that does not consider preseason rankings and assumptions — so despite their five losses, the underlying in-season metrics place them still that high. Playing ninety minutes away in Detroit against an undefeated Baylor team gives head coach Tom Izzo a great opportunity to get his team going. As it is, Michigan State has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss against a Big Ten rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Baylor made 50.9% of their shots in their victory against Seton Hall almost two weeks ago. The Bears have made at least 51.4% of their shots in six straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after making 50% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. Baylor leads the nation by making 46.1% of their shots from 3-point land — but they may have to knock off some rust after the long break between games. The analytics also suggest they have overachieved their 3-point shooting expectations by at least 10%. The Bears have played two straight Unders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. And while Baylor has enjoyed halftime leads of 10, 26, and 25 points in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying halftime leads of at least five points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams not making more than 30% of their 3-pointers. Baylor has played Auburn and Florida — but their strength of schedule still ranks only 255th in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. On the other hand, Sparty’s strength of schedule ranks the 45th most difficult entering the day.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams making at least 37% of their shots from 3-point range. And while the Bears are making 52.0% of their shots overall, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 9 of the last 14 games against teams making 48% or more of their shots from the field. 20* CBB Baylor-Michigan State Fox-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (626) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (644) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (643). THE SITUATION: Nevada (7-1) had their seven-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 72-53 upset loss against Drake on a neutral court in Henderson, Las Vegas, on Saturday.  Weber State (5-3) has won two of their last three games after their 78-50 victory against Cal-Poly SLO as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada only made 37.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where 125 or fewer combined points were scored. Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. They return home where they are 6-0 on their home court while making 47.7% of their shots which is generating 83.8 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +20.5 net PPG — and they are holding their visitors to 37.3% shooting. Nevada has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Weber State raced out to a 52-22 lead against the Mustangs on Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a halftime lead by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a game where they had a 20-point or better halftime lead. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. The Wildcats are led by 6’6 swingman Dillon Jones who bypassed the NBA last spring to return to the team. But he does not get enough support from his supporting cast in generating points. Weber State ranks 319th in the nation with an effective field goal (eFG) percentage — and their 30.8% shooting clip from behind the arc and their 44.0% mark with 2-pointers rank 258th and 327th in the nation. Nevada ranks 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 38th with an opponent’s eFG of 46.3%. The Wolf Pack holds their opponents to 39.5% shooting — and Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or lower. On the road, the Wildcats are only making 38.3% of their shots which is resulting in only 61.2 PPG. And while they are holding their opponents to 42.1% shooting, that shooting percentage rises to 46.9% when playing on the road. Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Nevada is outscoring their opponents by +13.9 net PPG — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Nevada Wolf Pack (644) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Hofstra Pride (607) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (608). THE SITUATION: Hofstra (6-3) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 71-68 upset loss at St. Louis as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (6-3) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 80-56 victory at home against Charlotte as a 16-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PRIDE PLUS THE POINTS: Hofstra allowed the Billikens to make 45.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They only made 28% of their shots from behind the arc as well despite them ranking 41st in the nation with a 37.9% shooting percentage from 3-point range. The Pride can redeem themselves from that loss by this opportunity to make a statement against the Blue Devils. Hofstra is a dangerous team that ranks 20th in the nation in returning Division I experience from a group that finished 16-2 in the Colonial Athletic Association last year. One of the Bracketology metrics projects the Pride as a 13-seed in the NCAA Tournament — and those numbers also currently assign the Blue Devils as only a seven-seed . Head coach Speedy Claxton deploys a Slow Killer style of play designed to upset teams like Duke. Hofstra plays at a slow pace — they average 67.2 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 264th in the nation. The Pride lives (and dies) by the 3-point shot — they rank 12th in the nation by accruing 40% of their points from behind the arc. The Blue Devils are vulnerable to teams that rely on 3-point shooting as they allow their opponents to take 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Hofstra will also take full advantage of their opportunities from the charity stripe as they rank third in the nation by making 81.0% of their free throws. They are led by one of the best mid-major players in the nation with Tyler Thomas who is scoring 24 PPG. Duke, as always, was considered a major player to win the national championship after they followed up their narrow loss at home to Arizona (the number one ranked team in the nation) with a convincing victory against Michigan State. But the shine has gone for this Blue Devils team after losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech along with the Spartans looking shaky with a 4-5 record. While Duke returned plenty of talent that lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, they miss Derrick Lively II who provided them a rim protector in his freshman season before leaving for the NBA. The Blue Devils allow their opponents to make 49.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 147th in the nation. Duke did play their best defensive game in their last five contests by holding the 49ers to 40.4% shooting — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win at home by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, this is Duke’s second game this month — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. It is somewhat ominous to fade the Blue Devils when playing at home at Cameron Indoor Arena — but while they rank 17th in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency in one of the power ranking metric systems I follow, they do fall to 30th when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: Hofstra ranks 93rd in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency — but they do rise to 80th when playing away from home according to those metrics. The Pride have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. Hofstra has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a double-digit underdog. 10* CBB Hofstra-Duke ESPN2 Special with the Hofstra Pride (607) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (608). Best of luck for us — Frank.